FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 3, July–September 2017.
Date: 2018-02-10
Institutions: Frontex
Subjects: EU migration policy, European security, Frontex, border control, external border of the EU, human rights, illegal migration, illicit trade, serial publication, trafficking in human beings

Q2Q1Q3Q4FRAN QuarterlyQuarter 3 • July–September 2017Frontex  official  publications  fall  into  four  main  categories:  risk  analysis,  training, 
operations and research, each marked with a distinct graphic identifier. Risk analysis 
publications  bear  a  triangular  symbol  formed  by  an  arrow  drawing  a  triangle,  with 
a dot at the  centre. Metaphorically, the arrow represents the cyclical nature of risk 
analysis processes and its orientation towards an appropriate operational response. 
The  triangle  is  a  symbol  of  ideal  proportions  and  knowledge,  reflecting  the  pursuit 
of factual exactness, truth and exhaustive analysis. The dot at the centre represents 
the  intelligence  factor  and  the  focal  point  where  information  from  diverse  sources 
converges  to  be  processed,  systematised  and  shared  as  analytical  products.  Thus, 
Frontex risk analysis is meant to be at the centre and to form a reliable basis for its 
operational activities.

Plac Europejski 6 
00-844 Warsaw, Poland
T +48 22 205 95 00 
F +48 22 205 95 01 
frontex@frontex.europa.eu 
www.frontex.europa.eu

Warsaw, March 2018 
Risk Analysis Unit 
Frontex reference number: 2617 / 2018 

OPOCE Catalogue number: TT-AF-17-003-EN-N 
ISSN 2363-0566 

© Frontex, 2018. All rights reserved. Reproduction is authorised provided the source 
is acknowledged.

DISCLAIMERS
This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply 
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal 
status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation 
of its frontiers or boundaries. All charts included in this report are the sole property of 
Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited.

Throughout the report, references to Kosovo* are marked with an asterisk to indicate 
that  this  designation  is  without  prejudice  to  positions  on  status,  and  is  in  line  with 
UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The FRAN Quarterly has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the 
course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and outside contributed 
to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude.

FRAN · q1 2015 
 
Table of contents

Introduction  #3

  Methodology  #4

I. 

 Situational overview  #6

  FRAN indicators  #7

Surveillance  #8

  Border checks  #10

  Fraudulent documents  #12

Situation in the EU  #14

II.   Featured risk analyses  #16

  Drug trafficking activities with a cross-border maritime dimension  #16

Increasing irregular migration pressure from the Maghreb region  #18

III. Statistical annex  #21

1 of 33
1 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016 
 
 
 
List of abbreviations used

ATS 
BCP 
CIRCA 
EDF 
EDF-RAN 
EU  
EUR 
FRAN  
Frontex 
IBM 
ICJ 
ICONet 
ID 
IOM 
JO 
MAOC-N 
MS 
n.a. 
Q/Qtr 
RAU 
SE 
SAR 
SAC 
SIS 
UNHCR 
UNSCR 
USD 
US 

amphetamine-type stimulants
border-crossing point
Communication and Information Resource Centre Administrator
European Union Document-Fraud
European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network
European Union
euro
Frontex Risk Analysis Network
 European Border and Coast Guard Agency
Integrated Border Management
International Court of Justice
Information and Coordination Network for Member States’ Migration Management Services
Identification document
International Organization for Migration
Joint Operation
Maritime Analysis and Operations Centre-Narcotics
Member State
not available
quarter of the year
Frontex Risk Analysis Unit
South Eastern
search and rescue
Schengen Associated Countries (Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland)
Schengen Information System
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
United Nations Security Council Resolution
United States dollar
United States of America

2 of 33

 Introduction

FRAN Quarterly reports are prepared by 
the  Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Unit  and  pro-
vide  a  regular  overview  of  irregular  mi-
gration at the EU’s external borders, based 
on the irregular migration data exchanged 
among Member State border-control au-
thorities  within  the  cooperative  frame-
work of the Frontex Risk Analysis Network 
(FRAN)  and  its  subsidiary,  the  European 
Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Net-
work (EDF-RAN).

in this report should be interpreted with 
caution and, where possible, cross-refer-
enced with information from other sources. 
The statistics should be understood in the 
context of the different levels of passen-
ger flows passing through different border 
sections,  the  activities  of  Member  State 
border-control authorities undertaken to 
secure different border sections and wide-
spread variation in reporting and data-col-
lection practices.

The main purpose of the FRAN Quarter-
lies is to provide:
1. 

 feedback  to  the  FRAN  community  in 
the context of information exchange;
2.   a periodic update to the situational pic-
ture of irregular migration at EU level; 
and

3.   material for constructive discussion on 
reporting protocols and related trends 
and patterns.

This report is intended to simultaneously 
serve two objectives: first – to provide a 
clear summary of the situation at the ex-
ternal border of the EU, and second – to 
serve  as  an  archive  for  future  reference 
and comparative analyses.

FRAN  members  and  Member  State  risk 
analysis  experts  and  border-control  au-
thorities  are  considered  the  primary  au-
dience  of  these  reports.  In  addition  to 
the discussions taking place during FRAN 
meetings,  Member  State  experts  are  in-
vited and actively encouraged to examine 
and comment upon the data and analyses 
presented here. Despite all efforts of the 
Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Unit  and  Member 
State  experts  involved  in  data  exchange 
and analyses, some minor errors may oc-
cur in these reports due to very challeng-
ing  timelines  and  the  growing  volume 
and complexity of the data and other in-
formation  exchanged  within  the  FRAN 
community.

Harmonising  complex,  multi-source  mi-
gration data among Frontex and Member 
States  is  an  ongoing  process.  Therefore, 
some of the more detailed data and trends 

Starting with the 2015 Q1 issue, the Fron-
tex Risk Analysis Unit has implemented a 
number of changes to present the analy-
sis  of  migration-related  indicators  in  the 

FRAN  Quarterly  in  a  more  concise  and 
focused way.

The first part provides a situational over-
view, broken down by main areas of work 
of  border-control  authorities  and  police 
activities related to irregular migration.
  Surveillance, describing and analysing 
trends in detections of illegal border-cross-
ing between BCPs;
  Border checks,  describing  detections 
reported  during  checks  at  BCPs  (people 
hiding in vehicles or refused entry);
  Fraudulent  documents,  describing 
trends and patterns related to document 
fraud  both  at  the  border  and  within  the 
EU;
  Situation in the EU, examining devel-
opments related to: persons applying for 
asylum and those detected staying illegally, 
detected facilitators, return decisions and 
effective returns.

The  second  thematic  part  of  the  report 
consists of several featured risk analyses, 
examining trends and patterns of irregular 
migration in a more comprehensive man-
ner. Eventually, it is expected that some of 
the featured analysis topics would be de-
veloped  by  external  contributors  (FRAN 
members,  EU  agencies  and  international 
institutions).

3 of 33

fran · q2 2016 Methodology

The current 37th issue of the FRAN Quar-
terly  is  a  comparative  analysis  of  FRAN 
data collected between July and Septem-
ber 2017 and exchanged among 31 Mem-
ber State border-control authorities within 
the framework of the Frontex Risk Analysis 
Network. The report presents the results 
of statistical analysis of quarterly changes 
of eight irregular-migration indicators and 
one  asylum  indicator,  aggregated  at  the 
level of the event. Bi-monthly analytical re-
ports exchanged by Member States were 
also used for interpretative purposes and 
to provide qualitative information, as were 
other available sources of information, such 
as Frontex Joint Operations.

Precise  definitions  of  Indicators  1  to  6, 
aimed at harmonising the data exchanged 
at EU level, were presented in the annexes 
of  the  Q1  and  Q2  reports  in  2009  and 
therefore are not repeated here.

The FRAN data exchange has been in place 
since September 2008. Data are exchanged 
through the ICONet Internet platform, an 
interest group of the European Commis-
sion’s CIRCA server. Member State monthly 
data are based on a country template pre-

pared  by  the  Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Unit. 
The deadline for submitting data for each 
month  is  the  20th  day  of  the  subsequent 
month, with the exception of the end-of-
year data, which are requested by 15 Jan-
uary  each  year.  For  this  37th  issue  of  the 
FRAN  Quarterly,  the  target  for  Member 
States  to  upload  the  monthly  data  was 
thus  20  October  2017.  In  principle,  data 
submitted subsequent to this date will be 
reflected in the next FRAN Quarterly, ex-
cept in cases where clarification is needed 
in  order  to  proceed  with  a  comprehen-
sive analysis.

In January 2012, the European Union Doc-
ument-Fraud Risk Analysis Network (EDF-
RAN) was formed as a specialist forum to 
oversee the exchange and analyses of de-
tections of document fraud at the exter-
nal borders and on all international flights. 
The data were backdated and merged with 
those exchanged under a pilot Tailored Risk 
Analysis released in 2011.

At the beginning of 2014, Member States 
started to regularly collect quantitative in-
formation on indicators related to second-
ary movements. In addition, in July 2014, 

Frontex  organised  workshops  for  Mem-
ber  State  experts  to  gather  their  exper-
tise and analyse available data. Their input 
was essential for the analysis of intra-EU/
Schengen  secondary  movements  of  un-
documented migrants.

External borders refer to the borders be-
tween Member States and third countries. 
The borders between Schengen Associated 
Countries (Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland 
and  Switzerland)  and  third  countries  are 
also  considered  as  external  borders.  The 
borders  between  Schengen  Associated 
Countries  and  Schengen  Member  States 
are considered as internal borders. For the 
indicators on detections of facilitators, il-
legal  stay  and  asylum,  statistics  are  also 
reported  for  detections  at  the  land  bor-
ders  between  Schengen  Member  States 
and Schengen candidates (Bulgaria, Cro-
atia, Cyprus and Romania) or non-Schen-
gen Member States (the United Kingdom 
and Ireland), so that a total for EU Mem-
ber States and Schengen Associated Coun-
tries (SAC) as a whole can be presented. It 
was not possible to make this distinction 
for air and sea borders because Member 
States do not habitually differentiate be-

4 of 33

Acknowledgements

The Frontex Risk Analysis Unit would like 
to  express  its  gratitude  to  all  FRAN  and 
EDF-RAN  members  and  their  associates 
in Member State statistical, migration and 
document-fraud units who collect, aggre-
gate and exchange monthly data, also to 
the analysts who compile the bimonthly 
analytical reports, on which much of the 
detailed analyses presented here are based.

tween extra-EU and intra-EU air and sea 
connections  but  tend  to  aggregate  data 
for all arrivals.

When  data  are  examined  at  the  level  of 
third-country  nationalities,  a  large  per-
centage  usually  falls  under  categories  of 
‘Other (not specified)’  or ‘Unknown’. It is 
expected  that  the  percentage  reported 
under these categories will decrease with 
time as Member States improve the qual-
ity and speed of their identification, data 
collection and reporting practices: nation-
alities are often reported as ‘Unknown’ if 
an  individual’s  nationality  cannot  be  es-
tablished before reports are submitted.

Both primary data sources, such as inter-
views  with  irregular  migrants,  and  sec-
ondary  data  sources,  such  as  reports  of 
intelligence analysts, daily reports of de-
ployed  officers  and  analytical  products 
(biweekly  analytical  reports  for  each 
abovementioned  operation)  were  used 
to provide an exhaustive overview of the 
situation at the external borders of the EU. 
Additionally,  open-source  data  were  re-
searched  as  background  information  for 
the present analysis.

5 of 33

fran · q2 2016I. 

 Situational overview

Table 1.  Detections of illegal border-crossing between BCPs
Detections reported by routes and top three nationalities at the external borders

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016

Q3

61 825

15 280

374

3 022

Q2

51 450

8 458

225

2 583

Q4

Q1

49 408

10 383

466

2 958

24 296

3 160

156

1 141

2017

Q2

59 475

10 963

424

3 648

21 660

2 982

2 065

1 673

40 184

43 149

35 601

19 839

44 440

14 940

8 804

7 067

2 345

751

1 150

2 821

1 737

20

462

150

1 105

1 994

1 878

92

139

485

1 162

116

0

44

0

72

11 102

1 796

5 386

163

3 757

1 402

1 389

1

0

12

0

0

0

0

0

370

137

32

34

167

168

1

0

7

160

0

0

0

10 500

8 764

2 616

965

1 122

4 061

1 736

47

569

289

831

2 987

2 757

265

800

455

1 237

230

0

81

0

149

5 889

1 233

2 245

262

2 149

1 111

1 044

0

3

64

1

0

0

0

1

449

142

54

36

217

144

0

66

14

64

0

0

0

9 006

7 284

2 212

1 007

852

3 213

1 722

101

772

192

657

3 601

2 699

306

739

460

1 194

902

0

450

2

450

4 621

1 208

1 896

160

1 357

1 258

1 219

0

3

36

0

0

0

0

0

317

84

24

26

183

197

0

0

73

124

1

1

0

6 058

4 928

1 770

427

273

2 458

1 130

109

473

84

464

3 352

2 352

127

115

680

1 430

1 000

0

455

0

545

3 507

915

1 211

236

1 145

1 539

1 493

2

3

41

0

0

0

0

0

7 408

5 897

2 015

857

394

2 631

1 511

183

467

151

710

4 200

4 035

782

329

918

2 006

165

0

41

0

124

2 224

767

319

165

973

1 657

1 610

4

0

43

0

0

0

0

0

143

179

27

19

21

76

74

5

0

7

62

0

0

0

53

29

12

85

39

0

0

39

0

1

0

1

15 337

12 824

5 568

2 891

1 615

2 750

2 513

869

816

409

419

6 668

5 848

2 258

1 160

678

1 752

820

239

152

74

355

3 874

1 703

1 286

292

593

1 658

1 621

9

7

21

472

435

35

1

1

266

98

34

29

105

20

0

11

9

0

0

0

0

-65

-80

452

-45

-65

46

46

113

200

44

-32

45

n.a.

43

42

-50

123

112

752

45

49

42

257

n.a

88

n.a

138

-34

38

-43

11

-72

49

55

n.a

133

-67

n.a.

n.a

n.a

n.a

0

-41

-31

-37

-19

-52

-86

n.a

-83

-36

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

-64

-73

387

-54

-66

107

117

176

237

310

4.5

66

375

75

171

-41

59

45

189

253

-26

-13

397

n.a

271

n.a

186

74

122

303

77

-39

0.1

0.7

125

n.a

-51

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

49

85

17

142

24

-49

n.a

n.a

-77

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

43

11

7.4

6

53

31

58

25

13

7.3

12

11

3.9

3.7

1.9

1.9

13

27

10

5.3

3.1

8

3.7

1.1

0.7

0.3

1.6

7.8

6.1

4.6

1

2.1

3.3

5.8

0

0

0.1

0.9

1.6

0.1

0

0

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.4

0

n.a

0

0

n.a

75 290

82 906

68 409

38 969

75 183

49 955 -39.75% -33.56%

100%

Central Mediterranean route

Nigeria

Tunisia

Mali

Other

Eastern Mediterranean route

Sea

Syria

Iraq

Afghanistan

Other

Land

Turkey

Syria

Iraq

Other

Western Mediterranean route

Sea

Morocco

Algeria

Côte d'Ivoire

Other

Land

Syria

Guinea

Algeria

Other

Western Balkan route

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Kosovo*

Other

Circular route from Albania to Greece

Albania

Turkey

Kosovo*

Other

Black Sea route

Iraq

Iran

Algeria

Other

Eastern Borders route

Vietnam

Ukraine

Russia

Other

Western African route

Algeria

Not specified

Morocco

Other

Other

Russia

Ukraine

Total

Source: FRAN data as of 21 November 2017

6 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overview FRAN indicators

Situation Q3 2017

Q3 2016
(dotted circles)

Q3 2017
(solid circles)

689

1 863

2 722

39 822

76 815

82 906

78 67 1

266

1 660

2 285

37 509

49 952

IBC-1B

EDF

FAC-2

RET-7B

REF-4

49 955

IBC-1A

Detections 
of illegal 
border-
crossing 
at BCPs

Detections 
of 
fraudulent 
document 
users

Detections 
of 
facilitators

Returns 
(effective)

Refusals 
of entry

Detections of illegal 
border-crossing 
between BCPs

128 740

111 474

ILL-3

Detections 
of persons 
staying illegally 

77 054

RET-7A

Returns 
(decisions)

In  the  third  quarter  of  2017,  the  overall 
number of detected illegal border-cross-
ings at the EU’s external borders fell, which 
runs counter to the typical quarterly trend. 
The  magnitude  of  this  decrease  is  high-
lighted by comparison with the previous 
quarter  (-34%),  and  the  same  quarter  of 
2016 (-40%). It would be a mistake, how-
ever, to conclude that the overall migra-
tory pressure at the external borders of the 
EU has been easing, as all major routes ac-
tually registered higher numbers, except 
for one. The slump in the overall number 
resulted  from  a  strong  fall  in  detections 
of migrants arriving in Italy on the Cen-
tral Mediterranean route, which was only 
partially compensated by increases on all 
other major routes. Indeed, the strongest 
increases in absolute numbers were those 
on the Eastern Mediterranean (+7 929) and 
the Western Mediterranean (+2 468) route.

The Central Mediterranean route experi-
enced a noticeable turnaround in Q3 2017, 
falling  to  almost  one-third  of  registered 
detections seen in Q2 2017 showing the 
lowest number of irregular migrants since 
the first quarter of 2015. For the first time 
since the EU-Turkey statement was im-
plemented,  the  registered  numbers  on 
the Central Mediterranean route for Au-
gust and September fell below those on 
the Eastern Mediterranean. Whereas the 
number of migrants arriving in Italy from 
Libya  fell,  there  were  more  departures 
from Algeria and, even more so, from Tu-
nisia (from 295 in Q2 2017 to 1 901 in Q3 
2017). As a result, irregular migrants from 
certain  Maghreb  states  (Tunisia  and  Al-
geria) increased their share in the flow.

On the Western Mediterranean route, Mo-
roccans  and  Algerians  made  up  almost 

the entirety of the strong increase in the 
flow (97% of the increase of 2 468 vis-à-
vis  Q2  2017)  to  yet  another  all-time  high 
observed on this route. The 6 668 irregu-
lar migrants apprehended represent a rel-
ative increase of 123% compared with one 
year ago, sustained by increases on both 
the land (+257%) and the sea (+112%) route. 
A comparison of the number of West Af-
ricans  registered  on  this  route  suggests 
that  a  large-scale  shift  from  the  Central 
to the Western Mediterranean route has 
not occurred. 

On the Eastern Mediterranean route, the 
migratory flow more than doubled in rela-
tion to Q2 2017. The 46% increase compared 
with the same quarter of 2016 was due to 
both  strong  increases  on  the  sea  (+46%) 
and on the land (+45%) route. In particu-
lar, increases were seen for Syrians, Iraqis, 
Afghans and Turks. Similarly, on the West-
ern Balkan route, a 74% rise in detections 
compared with Q2 2017 occurred, fuelled 
mostly by increased numbers of detected 
Pakistani and Afghan citizens crossing the 
EU’s external border for the second time. 

Finally,  the  Black  Sea  route  was  tempo-
rarily used in Q3. Five large fishing boats, 
launched in Turkey, were intercepted car-
rying a total of 472 migrants, 435 of which 
were Iraqis.

Compared with Q3 2016, all FRAN indica-
tors showed decreases. Apart from the fall 
in illegal border-crossings, the most visible 
decrease was observed in the number of 
refusals of entry. However, it was mostly 
the effect of over 30 000 fewer refusals 
being  issued  to  Russian  citizens,  which 
masked  increased  refusals  for  almost  all 
other nationalities.

Trend

Monthly trends, 
January 2013 to September 2017

Reported cases

1 000 000 

ILL-3

REF-4

IBC-1A

RET-7A

RET-7B

10,000

1,000

FAC-2

EDF

IBC-1B

100 000 

10 000 

1 000 

100 

10 

6
1
0
2
3
Q

7
1
0
2
3
Q

2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7

7 of 33

fran · q2 2016 
 
 Surveillance

Routes

Detections of illegal border- 
crossing at the EU’s external 
borders, Q3 2017
49 955
(82 906)

Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Western 
Balkan route
3 874
(5 889)

Eastern borders 
route
266
(449)

Black Sea 
route
472
(1)

Circular route from 
Albania to Greece
       1 658
           (1 111)

Western 
Mediterranean route
6 668
(2 987)

Western 
African route
20
(144)

Central 
Mediterranean
route
21 660
(61 825)

Eastern 
Mediterranean
route
15 337
(10 500)

Q3 data show a decrease in detections of 
illegal border-crossing, not only compared 
with Q2 2017 but also in relation to Q3 2016. 
The 49 955 detections are indeed lower than 
in any other third quarter since 2014. The 
roughly 34% drop compared with Q2 2017 
is linked to the turnaround on the Central 
Mediterranean  route,  which  despite  re-
maining  the  dominant  route,  accounted 
for a mere one-third of irregular migrants 
detected in Q2 2017. All other routes (bar 
the Western  African  route)  recorded  in-
creases, which was most visible on the East-
ern  Mediterranean  route.  The  number  of 
irregular  migrants  arriving  on  this  route 
was the highest since the EU-Turkey state-
ment came into force. As a consequence of 
the strong decline on the Central Mediter-
ranean and the fact that no displacement 
from the Central to the Western Mediter-
ranean  could  be  discerned  yet,  the  num-
ber of African migrants more than halved 
compared with Q2 2017. This meant a more 
equal weighting between African (53%) and 
Asian (41%) migrants, as the number of the 
latter additionally increased from 17 379 to 
20 492. 

Marked turnaround in numbers on 
the Central Mediterranean route

Undoubtedly the most significant devel-
opment in Q3 2017 was the turnaround in 
the number of migrants reaching Italy on 
the Central Mediterranean route (in abso-
lute terms a fall of 37 815 migrants com-
pared  with  the  previous  quarter).  After 
steadily  increasing  till  June  2017  (23  532), 
the numbers in July more than halved (to 
11 460), followed by an even stronger rel-
ative fall to almost a third of this level in 
August (3 918). 

This means that the share of migrants ar-
riving in the EU through the Central Medi-
terranean declined from 78% in Q2 2017 to 
just 44% in Q3 2017. This decline is mostly 
attributable to developments in Libya. In 
Q3,  the  IOM  estimated  there  were  be-
tween 80 000 and 100 000 migrants in 
Libya  intending  to  make  the  crossing  at 
some  point.  Unrelatedly,  more  migrants 
managed to successfully embark boats in 
Tunisia and Algeria, mostly heading for Sic-
ily and Sardinia, respectively. Likewise the 
Turkey-Italy  maritime  corridor  remained 
open to smugglers, even if fewer migrants 
used it. 

In line with the drastic fall in departures 
from Libya, the numbers of many African 
nationalities  on  the  Central  Mediterra-
nean  route  fell  proportionally.  Nigerians 
remain the most represented nationality 
on  this  route,  albeit  their  decrease  was 
directly proportional to the decline in the 
overall flow from 10 963 in Q2 to 2 982 in 
Q3 2017. In relative terms, the number of 
Bangladeshi nationals dropped the most 
to almost a tenth of the level in Q2 2017. 
By contrast, the number of Tunisian na-
tionals almost quintupled compared with 
Q2 2017 as a result of the successful de-
partures from Tunisia. Consequently, Tuni-
sians (with 2 065 detections) became the 
second most detected nationality on this 
route. Similarly, the number of Algerians 
doubled from 425 in Q2 to 867 in Q3 2017.

Increased migratory pressure in 
the Eastern Mediterranean and 
on Western Balkan route

On the Eastern Mediterranean route, the 
almost linear growth from April 2017 on-
wards continued throughout the second 
quarter, more than doubling between July 
(3 412) and September (7 139). However, the 
fact that the numbers of apprehended ir-

8 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewTrend

Quarterly detections of illegal
border-crossing, 2015–2017
Number

Nationalities

Main nationalities 
of illegal border-crossers
Q3 2017

100 000

50 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

Central 
Mediterranean
route

Western
Balkan

Western
Mediterranean

Central
Mediterranean

Kosovo*
Albania

Eastern
Mediterranean

Western 
Balkan 
route

Syria

Iraq

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Guinea

Côte d'Ivoire

Nigeria

Eastern 
Mediterranean
route

Q4
2 0 1 5

Q1 Q2 Q3
2 0 1 6

Q4

Q3

Q1 Q2
2 0 1 7

regular migrants in the third quarter are 
the highest since the EU-Turkey statement 
does  not  signify  a  decline  in  the  Turkish 
authorities’ commitment to border man-
agement. As regards the sea border, the 
comparison between preventions of de-
partures,  on  the  one  hand,  and  appre-
hensions, on the other, shows rather that 
the overall number of attempts to cross 
the Eastern Aegean has been constantly 
growing, which was particularly visible in 
September. The increasing pressure on the 
land border, with 2 513 detections of ille-
gal border-crossing, i.e. the highest figure 
since Q4 2015, and the temporary use of 
the Black Sea route found reflection in the 
diminished attractiveness of the route via 
the Eastern Aegean Islands. 

As  regards  nationalities  of  migrants  de-
tected in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syr-
ians,  whose  number  (6  384)  more  than 
doubled in relation to the same period last 
year, were followed by Iraqis (3 300) and 
Afghans (1 674). Also in the top five were 
Turkish nationals (whose number rose from 
74 in Q3 2016 to 985) and Pakistanis (falling 
from 1 903 to 662).

On  the  Western  Balkan  route,  after  four 
quarters of decreasing detections of irregu-
lar border-crossing, the numbers in Q3 2017 
increased by 74% compared with Q2 2017. 
The detections were still mostly made at 
the borders with Serbia. At the Romanian-
Serbian  section  the  detections  dropped 
compared with Q2 2017 but increased at 
Serbia’s borders with Croatia and Hungary, 
at the latter returning to levels observed 
before the second quarter’s dip. 

by sub-Saharan migrants – may denote the 
increasing activity of people smuggling net-
works, as these migrants are unlikely to have 
acquired dinghies and the engines used to 
propel them on their own. Since the begin-
ning of the JO Indalo 2017, around 30% of all 
Moroccan migrants apprehended were mi-
nors and their share has been constantly in-
creasing from merely 5% in 2015.

Developments on other routes

New record numbers on the Western 
Mediterranean

The level of migrant detections reported 
on  the Western  Mediterranean  route  in 
Q3 2017 (6 668) is comparable with annual 
totals observed in the years before 2014. 
Also, it should be borne in mind that some 
migrant vessels went undetected. Most of 
the increase could be attributed to arrivals 
on high-capacity boats, which continued to 
be used to depart from Morocco’s western 
coastline, mostly by Moroccan migrants. 
Moroccan nationals (with 2 276 detected 
arrivals in Spain) account for over a third of 
the flow, followed by Algerians (1 234) and 
nationals of West African countries. The in-
creasing use of larger rubber dinghies – used 

The Black Sea route was temporarily used 
in Q3 2017: 472 migrants detected represent 
the highest number of migrants ever de-
tected in the Black Sea since FRAN data col-
lection began and more than double that of 
the previous record quarter of Q3 2014. The 
figure is the total number of irregular mi-
grants who managed to cross the Black Sea 
on five different boats. Each boat carried be-
tween 69 and 154 migrants plus facilitators. 

Whereas detections and make-up of the 
flow on the circular route from Albania to 
Greece were virtually unchanged compared 
with Q2 2017, activity on the Western African 
route further declined to just 20 detections 
in total in Q3. Lastly, the Eastern borders 
route registered moderate increases.

9 of 33

Bangladeshfran · q2 2016 Border checks

Refusals of entry

Number per border type, Q3 2017
(only values higher than 1000 are stipulated)

Total:  49 952 (76 815)

Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Land (  )
Sea (  )

Air

United 
Kingdom

Poland

Lithuania

Croatia

Hungary

France

Italy

Greece

Germany

Italy

Clandestine  
entries

Detections of illegal border-crossing at BCPs 
(people hiding in vehicles)

Number, Q3 2017

Total:  266 (689)

Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Spain-
Morocco

Trend of the total   

Land

Q3 2016
Q3 2017

62 802
34 269

Air
11 937
13 045

Sea

2 076
2 638

Member  States  issued  slightly  more  re-
fusals of entry (+5.4%) than in the previ-
ous quarter, which was mostly an effect 
of the fluctuating number of Russian cit-
izens refused at the Polish land border.

Excluding  the  Polish  land  border  for  a 
moment,  the  aggregate  number  of  is-
sued refusals of entry in Q3 2017 stayed 
almost exactly on par with the number 
in  Q2  2017.  The  Polish  land  border  con-
tinued  to  be  responsible  for  the  largest 
share of refusals with a share of 39% and 
in  fact  increased  its  share  by  a  further 
3%, of which 45% were Russians and 39% 
Ukrainians. The increases compared with 
the previous quarter (for the Polish land 
border  and  thus  for  the  overall  number 
of  refusals)  here  then  were  mostly  due 
to  Russians  (+1  684),  Moldovans  (+530) 
and Ukrainians (+380), most of which due 
to the lack of a valid visa. Of the Mem-
ber  States  reporting  the  highest  num-
bers of refusals, Hungary (+30%) and the 
United Kingdom (+43%) showed large rel-
ative  increases  compared  with  Q2  2017, 

whereas  Italy  (-30%)  and  Spain  (-44%) 
showed the strongest relative decreases. 
During the reference period, the propor-
tion of refusals of entry per border type 
was  as  follows:  34  269  (68%)  land  bor-
ders; 13 045 (26%) air borders; and, 2 638 
(5%) sea borders.

At land borders, the 34 269 refusals issued 
in Q3 2017 represent a 45% decrease com-
pared  with  one  year  ago,  a  result  of  the 
aforementioned fluctuating large numbers 
of Russians, which in this comparison fell 
by 75%, partially made up for by increases 
of different relative extents of pretty much 
all  other  major  nationalities,  of  which  in 
particular a doubling of Moldovan citizens 
(from 606 in Q3 2016 to 1 231 in Q3 2017, 
the latter refusals having occurred to 68% 
in Poland) stands out. In comparison with 
both the previous quarter and the quar-
ter one year before, the lack of sufficient 
means of subsistence and issued alerts as 
well as a previous stay of over 3 months 
are the reason of refusal that have expe-
rienced significant increases. 

At air borders, slight increases (+9.3%) com-
pared with one year ago are put into per-
spective  by  the  three  previous  quarters 
(with much lower passenger flows) of el-
evated  numbers.  Interestingly,  passen-
gers from the USA were responsible for a 
solid increase in refusals, a 35% increase in 
comparison  to  the  previous  quarter  and 
a 20% increase compared with last year. 
62% of US passengers were refused at the 
air borders of the United Kingdom, likely 
most of them students.

At sea borders, the overall number of re-
fusals  stayed  virtually  unchanged  com-
pared  with  the  last  quarter,  but  in  the 
comparison to the previous year a 27% in-
crease was registered. Moroccan, Turkish, 
Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan passengers were 
the  recipients  of  the  increased  numbers 
of refusals. 

Striking fall in clandestine entry 
detections in both short- and long-
term comparison

In  Q3  2017,  detected  clandestine  entry 
attempts  by  migrants  hiding  in  lorries, 
trains,  ships  and  other  means  of  trans-
port decreased markedly to 266. The 62% 

10 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewIllegal stayers 
on exit 

Total:  23 931 (21 844)

Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Number of detections, Q3 2017

Netherlands

Germany

Poland

Belgium

Switzerland

Hungary

500

10-100

1-10

France

Type of border section:

Land 

Sea 

Air 

no data

Greece

drop from the 696 detections of Q2 2017 
were mostly due to drop in detections at 
the Croatian borders (from 283 to 15 de-
tections), the Italian borders (from 168 to 
59) and the Spanish borders (from 168 to 
108).  Overall,  the  decrease  in  detections 
was roughly proportionate between land 
and sea borders. In the comparison to the 
same quarter of 2016, a uniform decrease 
across border sections in terms of detec-
tions of clandestine entries is noticeable. 
In times of persistent pressure on the ex-
ternal borders, a fall of attempts to enter 
clandestinely  seems  somewhat  unlikely, 
therefore  this  fall  in  detections  may  in-
stead  suggest  that  more  migrants  suc-
ceed to enter clandestinely.

Despite decreased detections from 168 in 
Q2 2017 to 108 in Q3 2017, clandestine entry 
attempts at the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta 
and  Melilla  almost  doubled  their  overall 
share of registered clandestine entry at-
tempts to make up 41% of the aggregate. 
Guineans,  who  were  the  top  national-
ity  registered  overall,  all  were  detected 
at these land borders to Morocco. This is 
one  of  several  data  points  pertaining  to 
specific nationalities attempting to enter 
clandestinely  at  specific  border  sections 

in high numbers that suggest the involve-
ment of ethnicity-based organised facili-
tation networks.

Uniformly spread increase in illegal 
stays on exit leads to highest number 
of illegal stay on exit in FRAN history

The number of persons detected on exit at 
BCPs at the EU’s external borders without 
a valid permission to stay increased from 
18 374 in Q2 2017 to 23 931 in Q3 2017, an 
almost 10% increase compared with the 
same quarter one year earlier. This num-
ber represents the highest number of ille-
gal stay detections in the history of FRAN 
data  collection.  Whereas  the  increases 
were shared by a wide range of Member 
States,  the  largest  absolute  increases  in 
detections of illegal stays compared with 
the  previous  quarter  were  recorded  by 
Germany  (+1  634),  Hungary  (+1  508),  Po-
land (+716) and Greece (+638). The top five 
countries detecting most illegal stays on 
exit remained unchanged: Germany (7 320) 
was followed by Poland (4 490), Hungary 
(4 463), France (1 670) and Greece (1 177). 
With 4 685 detected individuals, Ukrain-
ians  continued  to  be  the  most  common 
nationality of illegal stayers.

Germany’s detections – all of them at the 
air borders – were wide-spread among a 
variety  of  nationalities,  most  interesting 
amongst  them  the  significant  increases 
in  Chinese  citizens  (from  453  in  Q2  2017 
to  787  in  Q3  2017).  The  increase  in  de-
tections  of  illegal  stays  on  exit  in  Hun-
gary took place at its land borders (from 
2 522 detections in Q3 2016 to 4 450 detec-
tions one year later). Much of this increase 
stemmed from increased registrations of 
illegal stays on exit at the land border to 
Serbia (from 685 to 2 481 one year later). 
Of  these  and  again  compared  with  one 
year  before,  995  additional  Serbians  re-
turning to their home country were de-
tected, along with 552 additional citizens 
of the former Yugoslav Republic of Mace-
donia. In Poland, the increased detections 
compared with the previous quarter oc-
curred at the land border to Belarus (from 
414 to 790) and to Ukraine (from 2 988 to 
3 280), and were mostly registered for citi-
zens of the respective bordering countries. 
The increases in Greece on the other hand 
occurred at the air borders and involved 
the  most  prevalent  nationalities  on  the 
Eastern Mediterranean route.

11 of 33

fran · q2 2016 Fraudulent documents

Detections
(at external borders)

Number of detected 
fraudulent documents 
per Member State, 
Q3 2017

Direction:

exit

entry

Number:
(only highest values are 
stipulated)

100

50

10

France

Poland

Hungary

Spain

Italy

Increase in document fraud 
detections in Q3 2017 

increasingly trying to board intra-Schen-
gen flights with fraudulent documents.

In  Q3  2017,  the  overall  number  of  docu-
ment fraud cases reported in the EDF-RAN 
increased by 11% compared with the last 
quarter,  reaching  5  488  document  fraud 
cases and 6 327 detected fraudulent docu-
ments. An over 8% increase was observed 
compared  with  Q3  2016.  The  overall  in-
crease in Q3 2017 is, however, composed 
of two opposing trends. While on entry to 
the EU/Schengen area from third countries 
the number of document fraud detections 
reached one of its lowest numbers since 
the beginning of 2013, the number of detec-
tions on the secondary movements within 
the EU/Schengen area reached the second-
highest number since the beginning of 2013. 
The visa-free regime for nationals of Iran, 
China and India introduced by Serbia may 
in  the  future  bring  more  new  document 
fraud detections to the south-east exter-
nal EU land border with Serbia as well as 
to air routes connecting to Belgrade. Mi-
grants stranded in Greece have also been 

When it comes to the particular national-
ities abusing travel documents, there was 
no  change  observed  regarding  the  top-
reported  nationalities.  Albanian  nation-
als  remained  the  most-reported  despite 
a 11% decrease recorded in Q3 2017 when 
compared with the previous quarter. As in 
previous years, it is expected that the num-
ber of Albanians increases again in the last 
quarter of 2017. 

Syrian nationals became the second-most 
reported nationality in Q3 2017, in particu-
lar due to their significant increase on in-
tra-Schengen movements .

Ukrainian nationals’ detections decreased 
by  17%  in  Q3  2017  vis-à-vis  the  previous 
quarter. It is likely that this trend will con-
tinue due to the visa-free regime benefit-
ing Ukrainians since 11 June 2017. 

Iranian nationals recorded a solid 23% in-
crease in Q3 2017 compared with the pre-

vious  quarter.  This  development  is  not 
only caused by increased detections dur-
ing secondary movements, but also by the 
increased detections on arrival from third-
countries across air and land borders. 

Significant increase in document 
fraud detections on the air routes 
departing Greece 

Compared with the previous quarter, the 
overall number of detections on second-
ary movements within the EU/Schengen 
area  increased  by  more  than  20%  from 
2 669 in Q2 2017 to 3 225 in Q3 2017. Over 
37%  of  the  detections  on  the  secondary 
movements were accounted for by Alba-
nians and Syrians. 

The  number  of  users  of  fraudulent  doc-
uments  attempting  to  depart  Greece 
bounded for other EU/Schengen countries 
increased again by more than 76% from 729 
in Q2 2017 to 1 285 in Q3 2017. Especially Syr-
ians, Iraqis, Afghans and Iranians formed 
the  biggest  group  attempting  to  depart 
Greece  with  fraudulent  documents.  The 

12 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewType

Type of fraudulent document detected, 
by main countries of issuance, Q3 2017

s

e
c
n
ermit
e
sid
e
   p
R

s

ort
p
s
s
a
P

s

ard
ID c

s
a
Vis

s
p
m
a
St

Number

100

10

Note: 
values 
under 10 
are not 
represented

Number of detected 

fraudulent documents 

per Member State, 

Q3 2017

Direction:

exit

entry

Number:

stipulated)

(only highest values are 

100

50

10

France

Poland

Hungary

Spain

Italy

Poland

Italy

France

Netherlands

Portugal

UK

Romania

Lithuania

Turkey

Sweden

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Belgium

Switzerland

Syria

Senegal

Spain

Nationality of users

Claimed nationality of persons detected 
with fraudulent documents on entry 
from third countries, Q3 2017

Number

100

10

(only highest values are stipulated)

Ukraine

Trend between Q3 2016 and Q3 2017:

higher than 50%

between 50% and −50%

lower than  −50%

Iran

Not speciﬁed

Albania

Morocco

most-favoured  destination  remains  Ger-
many, followed by Italy, Switzerland, Bel-
gium, the Netherlands, Spain and France. 
Syrians attempting to depart Greece with 
fraudulent documents account for almost 
38%  of  the  total  and  the  overall  number 
nearly doubled compared with Q2 2017. 

The United Kingdom remained the most 
frequently-named final destination coun-
try including secondary movements inside 
the EU/Schengen area. In Q3 2017, almost 
1 000 persons with fraudulent documents 
were detected on the routes onwards to 
the United Kingdom. This number is equal 
to the number reported in Q2 2017. 

On entry from third countries, 
Iranians reached a record high while 
Ukrainians dropped by one-third

In Q3 2017, 1 660 persons entered the EU/
Schengen  area  from  third  countries  us-
ing fraudulent documents. This number is 
comparable to the number of detections 
in the previous quarters of 2017, but lower 
compared with previous years. 

At  EU  level,  of  the  95  nationalities  de-
tected using fraudulent documents to il-
legally enter the EU or Schengen area from 
a third country, the most commonly de-
tected  were  Moroccans  (261),  Ukrainians 
(171), Iranians (146), Albanians (66) and Rus-
sians (66). Three significant developments 
were observed in Q3 2017. While the num-
ber of Moroccans unsurprisingly and in line 

with the enduring upward trend increased, 
the  number  of  Ukrainians  decreased  by 
nearly one-third due to visa liberalisation. 
Last but not least, the number of Iranians 
increased from 88 in Q2 2017 to 146 in Q3 
2017 to reach the highest recorded number 
since the beginning of 2013. Iranians were 
mostly detected on arrival from Iran, Tur-
key and newly also from Serbia (Iranians 
newly visa free to Serbia).

As  in  the  previous  months,  most  detec-
tions were reported from air routes. The 
number  of  document  fraud  cases  from 
Istanbul  Atatürk  decreased  by  16%  com-
pared with the previous quarter. Istanbul 
Atatürk, however, still remains among the 
most-reported last departure airports out-
side the EU/Schengen area. 

13 of 33

fran · q2 2016 Situation in the EU

Illegal stayers (excluding data for exit)

Number of detected cases, Q3 2017
(only highest values are stipulated) 

1 000

10 000

Germany

Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Facilitators

Number of detected persons, Q3 2017
Lower bars represent the level for Q3 2016

0

250

500

Italy

France

Spain

Greece

Switzerland

France

Switzerland

Austria

Italy

Illegal stay detections roughly 
unchanged compared with Q2 2017 
and still mostly associated with 
secondary movements of migrants 
who reached Europe via the Central 
Mediterranean

Member States reported a total of 87 543 
detections of illegal stay in Q2 2017, a figure 
that excludes the 23 931 detections made on 
exit at BCPs (see ‘Border Checks’, p. 14).1 The 
fact that the number is roughly unchanged 
compared with Q2 2017 illustrates the per-
sistence and magnitude of the problem. 

The  largest  share  of  illegal  stay  detec-
tions continue to be made in a few coun-
tries, whose relative share stayed pretty 
much unchanged compared with the pre-
vious quarter. France is followed by Ger-
many, Italy, Austria and Switzerland and 
these countries together account for al-
most 69% of the aggregate. The relative 
increase  in  detections  of  illegal  stay  in 
France compared with any quarter of 2016 

1 

 All data on detections of illegal stay in this 
chapter will consist only of those detections 
that were not made at BCPs on exit from the 
EU, because these cases are analysed in the 
chapter ‘Border checks’.

is in particular due to elevated numbers 
of detected Sudanese (ranging from 270 
to 1 614 maximum detections in 2016 and 
having registered 3 000 detections in Q3 
2017, meaning more than two-thirds of all 
detections  of  illegal  stay  in  the  EU  took 
place in France). Considering that almost 
99% of Sudanese migrants were detected 
on the Central Mediterranean route, the 
likely path of their secondary movement 
is self-evident. 

The  detailed  look  at  Sudanese  migrants 
is  exemplary.  Considering  the  location, 
among  other  factors,  the  high  share  of 
detections  in  the  top  five  countries  sug-
gests  itself  to  be  the  spillover  effect  of 
secondary  movements  of  migrants  who 
entered the EU/Schengen area on the Cen-
tral Mediterranean route. This conclusion is 
supported by the fact that the breakdown 
of the nationalities of illegal stayers – re-
ported by the countries where illegal stay 
detections are most prevalent – matches 
the relative shares of nationalities reported 
on this route. For example, 40 330 migrants 
detected for illegal stay in Q3 2017 (which 
constituted 46% of the overall number of 
detections) were nationals of African coun-
tries. They, in turn, accounted for over half 

of all migrants detected for illegal stay in 
France.  An  even  higher  share  of  African 
illegal  stayers  were  recorded  in  Switzer-
land. Italy, the primary country of disem-
barkation despite a strong fall in arrivals, 
reported a share of African illegal stayers 
of almost 80% of the total.

Increase in detections of Asian 
nationals compensated by lower 
numbers of European and American 
nationals 

Whilst the overall number of detections of 
illegal stay vis-à-vis Q2 2017 stayed almost 
unchanged,  the  composition  thereof  in 
terms of nationalities did slightly. Whereas 
the  number  of  nationals  of  countries  on 
the  African  continent  remained  virtually 
unchanged, Asian nationals (from 27 731 to 
30 013) increased by 8%, in line with strong 
increases in arrivals of irregular migrants 
to  the  EU  through  the  second  and  third 
quarter of this year. On the other hand, Eu-
ropean nationals registered a decrease in 
detections (from 14 149 to 12 986) and so did 
American nationals (from 4 283 to 3 573).

14 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewUkraine

Albania

Morocco

Iraq

Returns

Nationality of returned people, Q3 2017
Number

Member States 
which have sent data

4 000 1 000

Decisions vs. Effective returns, Q3 2017
Number in parenthesis is for Q3 2016

Afghanistan

Decisions 77 054
(78 671)

Effective
returns

37 509
(39 822)

Decreases in Scandinavia and 
increases in Balkan Member States

The previously observed decreasing trend 
in  Scandinavian  Member  States  contin-
ued into the reporting period. Denmark 
reported even lower numbers in Q3 2017 .

The further increase in the number of de-
tections  reported  by  Member  States  lo-
cated along the Western Balkan route is 
probably linked to the continued closure of 
the  Balkan  corridor.  Romania  more  than 
doubled  its  detections  and  Bulgaria  too 
registered a sizable increase of 44%. Cro-
atia and Hungary also saw increases.

Fall in detections of facilitators for 
third quarter in a row 

In  Q3  2017,  Member  States  reported  the 
arrest  of  2  285  facilitators,  which  repre-
sents  a  decrease  of  12%  compared  with 
the  previous  quarters  and  a  decrease  of 
16% compared with one year ago. Whereas 
compared with the previous quarter, inland 
detections  decreased  from  1  233  to  1  077 
and  land  detections  decreased  from  853 
to 598, detections at sea (from 186 to 248) 
and air borders (from 59 to 75) increased 
slightly. The list of the most prevalent na-
tionalities of the arrested facilitators stayed 
mostly unchanged except for a decrease in 

Italian facilitators arrested – a drop from 
164  to  94  facilitators  between  the  quar-
ters  –  leading  to  a  drop  on  the  table.  At 
the same time more Romanians and Syr-
ians were arrested for the provision of fa-
cilitation services.

The list of the top countries reporting most 
arrested facilitators in Q3 2017 stayed al-
most unchanged, with Spain reporting a 
decrease  and  Greece  –  an  increase.  To-
gether Italy, France, Spain and Greece still 
accounted for the bulk (79%) of arrested fa-
cilitators, which is hardly surprising given 
that these are the frontline states most ex-
posed to the strong migratory pressure in 
the Mediterranean, with the notable ex-
ception of France, which is the only coun-
try on the list mostly affected by secondary 
movements. Thus, France conducted more 
than half of the arrests of facilitators inland.

Despite a small increase in effective 
returns, ratio of effective returns to 
return decisions lower than in Q2 2017

In the third quarter of 2017, Member State 
authorities issued 77 054 return decisions 
to third-country nationals following an ad-
ministrative or judicial decision. This num-
ber represents an increase of 4 782 (+6.6%) 
issued return decisions compared with Q2 
2017,  yet  falls  short  of  previous  quarters 

of  last  year.  Changes  in  the  composition 
of nationalities receiving return decisions 
continue  to  reflect  the  changing  com-
position of the incoming migratory flow, 
with  different  time  lags  resulting  from 
differences  in  national  procedures.  Thus, 
compared with Q2, absolute increases for 
Ukrainian citizens (from 7 226 to 8 576) and 
Iraqi citizens (from 4 557 to 5 267) as well as 
Syrians (1 821 to 3 078) and Tunisians (1 107 
to 2 102) were particularly strong. 

As effective returns increased a mere 2.4% 
compared with Q2 2017 and thus slower 
than  return  decisions,  the  ratio  of  effec-
tive returns to return decisions fell to less 
than 49%, illustrating the increasing diffi-
culty Member States experience in enforc-
ing returns. Progress seems to be focused 
on a small group of countries, with (in or-
der of aggregate effective returns) Pakistan 
(+17% of returns implemented vis-à-vis Q2 
2017), Russia (+9.1%), India (+19%), Tunisia 
(+36%) and Georgia (+14%) standing out in 
the top ten of countries to which migrants 
have been effectively returned.

15 of 33

fran · q2 2016II. 

 Featured risk analyses

 Drug trafficking activities with 
a cross-border maritime dimension

The new Regulation 1624/2016 of the Eu-
ropean Parliament and of the Council of 
14 September 2016 on the European Bor-
der and Coast Guard Agency expanded the 
scope of risk assessment – as an essential 
component of European Integrated Border 
Management (IBM) – to encompass the 
analysis of cross-border crime. The regula-
tion defines cross-border crime as ‘any se-
rious crime with a cross-border dimension 
committed at or along, or which is related 
to, the external borders’. This brief over-
view focuses on drug trafficking activities 
that have an impact on the EU’s external 
maritime borders. Even though the anal-
ysis is mostly based on information from 
official reports and open sources, it helps 
present some of the main challenges from 
a border surveillance perspective. 

Cocaine trafficking 

Official  seizure  statistics  show  that  the 
majority of cocaine shipments enter Eu-
rope via Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands 
and Belgium. Overall, it is estimated that 

x
e
t
n
o
r
F
©

Figure 1.  Drug smuggling case within JO Triton

16 of 33

approximately  125  tonnes  of  the  drug 
worth USD 33 billion are consumed in Eu-
rope each year. The largest European co-
caine markets the United Kingdom, Spain, 
Italy,  Germany  and  France,  together  ac-
counting for 80% of total consumption.

Large  cocaine  shipments  are  smuggled 
directly  from  Latin  America  to  Europe 
on  transatlantic  routes  in  shipping  con-
tainers and concealed compartments on 
various  types  of  vessels.  The  Calabrian 
mafia ‘Ndrangheta has a well-established 
role in the cocaine trafficking from South 
America  to  Europe.  In  recent  years,  co-
caine smuggling networks have been di-
versifying the routes using transhipment 
hubs  in  West  Africa  (e.g.  Guinea-Bissau, 
Guinea, the Gambia, Senegal, Nigeria) and 
the Caribbean. The drug is moved by var-
ious transportation modes across North 
African  countries  to  Europe.  Significant 
quantities  are  smuggled  from  West  Af-
rica via numerous couriers on commercial 
air  flights.  Secondary  routes  for  cocaine 
smuggling to Europe run through South-
Eastern Europe and East Africa.

Heroin trafficking 

About  80  tonnes  of  Afghan  heroin  are 
smuggled to Western and Central Europe 
each year through Iran, Turkey and South-
Eastern Europe. Important recent devel-
opments  include  the  emergence  of  two 
new  routes  via  the  Southern  Caucasus 
and Syria and Iraq. However, the ‘Balkan 
route’ – with its northern, southern and 
western  sea/land  branches  –  remains  a 
key corridor for heroin entry into the EU. 
There  is  also  evidence  that  Afghan  her-
oin  is  being  processed,  re-packaged  and 
stored for export in South-Eastern Euro-
pean countries. Criminal groups based in 
Balkan  countries,  especially  Albania  and 

II. Featured risk analyses 
Kosovo*, play a key role in the smuggling 
of heroin to Europe.

As criminal groups try to use alternative 
transhipment routes to minimise the risks 
of interception by law enforcement, heroin 
is also smuggled from Afghanistan through 
the  so-called  ‘southern  route’  –  a  net-
work of routes stretching from Afghani-
stan through Pakistan, the Persian Gulf and 
the Indian Ocean – to East Africa and then 
to  Europe.  Developments  on  this  route 
suggests  that  it  plays  a  more  significant 
role in the supply for European markets.

Cannabis trafficking 

Herbal cannabis produced in large quanti-
ties in South-Eastern Europe is exported to 
Western and Central Europe via the Adri-
atic  Sea  on  speedboats  and  ferries  from 
the  Albanian  ports  of  Durres  and  Vlore 
or  overland  through  neighbouring  Bal-
kan countries. Despite a large-scale crack-
down on Albanian cannabis producers at 
Lazarat  village  in  2014,  the  situation  re-
mains largely unchanged. The yearly pro-
duction of about 900 tonnes of cannabis 
is  worth  EUR  4.5  billion,  which  is  nearly 
equivalent  to  half  of  Albania’s  gross  do-
mestic product. 

Cannabis resin of Moroccan origin is smug-
gled to Western and Northern European 
markets by Moroccan drug trafficking net-
works  in  cooperation  with  international 
organised  crime  groups  (OCGs).  Spain  is 
the  main  entry  point  to  Europe  and  the 
principal smuggling method involves the 
use of speedboats. Cannabis resin is also 
transported from Morocco to North Afri-
can countries. Over 100 tonnes of canna-
bis resin, possibly intended for European 
markets, have been seized off the coasts 
of North Africa in recent years, according 
to the Maritime Analysis and Operations 
Centre-Narcotics (MAOC-N). South-East-
ern  Europe  also  represents  a  secondary 
route for the smuggling of Moroccan can-
nabis resin to Europe. 

Synthetic drugs trafficking

There is evidence that amphetamine-type 
stimulants (ATS) are produced in clandes-
tine laboratories of South-Eastern Europe 

to  supply  international  markets,  among 
others,  in  Europe  and  the  Middle  East. 
In  West  Africa,  there  is  also  evidence  of 
fast-growing ATS production (e.g. meth-
amphetamine laboratories in Nigeria) for 
international markets in Asia, South Africa 
and possibly Europe, too. Seizures of am-
phetamine and methamphetamine have 
been reported in Niger and other West Af-
rican countries. The EU itself is a signifi-
cant  supply  and  consumption  area  with 
substantial  amount  of  synthetic  drugs 
produced  in  clandestine  laboratories  for 
European  and  global  markets,  mainly  in 
the Netherlands and Belgium. 

Frontex joint maritime operations

It is worth noting here the results achieved 
within  the  framework  of  Frontex  Joint 
Operations  in  the  Western  and  Central 
Mediterranean  Sea.  In  2016,  80  tonnes 
of  cannabis  resin  (hashish),  14  tonnes  of 
cannabis  herb  (marihuana),  1.74  tonnes 
of  cocaine  were  detected.  By  the  end  of 
November 2017, 91 tonnes of hashish, 44 
tonnes of marijuana, 1.7 tonnes of cocaine 
and  35  kilograms  of  heroin  have  been 
seized. During these operations, 149 drug 
smugglers were arrested in 2016 and 200 
in 2017 (as of 30 November). 

Conclusion

Drug trafficking poses a serious challenge 
to the security of the EU’s external mar-
itime  borders.  Organised  crime  groups, 
motivated by lucrative business opportu-
nities, flexibly exploit all maritime trans-
portation  modes  to  smuggle  illicit  drugs 
to  European  markets.  Since  their  activi-
ties are crucial for market supply, it is ex-
pected that maritime drug trafficking will 
continue to evolve, which will have an im-
pact  on  the  external  and  internal  secu-
rity of the EU. 

Admittedly, the trade in narcotics is only a 
part of the big picture. Cross-border crime 
is a much broader phenomenon covering 
various illicit flows (e.g. counterfeit prod-
ucts, cigarettes and firearms), trafficking 
in human beings and terrorism. Nonethe-
less, this overview draws attention to the 
massive scale of illicit drug flows via the 
maritime domain, the predominant smug-

gling routes and the high profits amassed 
by criminals.

Countering maritime cross-border crime 
requires  risk-based,  intelligence-driven 
and coordinated operational responses at 
EU and national level. To achieve this, it is 
essential  to  understand  better  the  risks 
posed by illicit markets and criminal net-
works ranging from opportunistic to so-
phisticated and poly-criminal ones. A more 
nuanced understanding of their maritime 
trafficking activities will help identify pat-
terns and trends, create risk profiles and 
determine operational and intelligence pri-
orities. This will go a long way in terms of 
informing operational targeting and law- 
enforcement actions. Frontex will conduct 
risk assessments and deepen its cooper-
ation  with  Europol  and  Member  States’ 
law-enforcement  agencies  to  help  com-
bat all forms of serious cross-border crime. 

Bibliography
BBC (2016). Europe’s outdoor cannabis capital. 
Available at http://www.bbc.com/news/
magazine-38111945

EMCDDA (2016a). Trafficking of cannabis in Europe. 

EMCDDA (2016b). EU Drug Markets Report - 
Heroin and other opioids.

EMCDDA (2015). Synthetic drug production in 
Europe. 

Jane’s Intelligence Review (2017). Drug trafficking 
routes proliferate through Indian Ocean.

Jane’s Intelligence Review (2015). Calabrian mafia 
extends international reach.

Jane’s Intelligence Review (2014). Heavy traffic – 
The increasing movement of drugs to East Africa. 

Jane’s Intelligence Review (2013). Sahel to high 
water - Drug Trafficking in West Africa.

Reuters (2015). Special Report: West Africa’s 
alarming growth industry – meth. Available 
at https://www.reuters.com/article/
us-africa-drugs-meth-special-report/
special-report-west-africas-alarming-growth-
industry-meth-idUSKCN0PY0WS20150724 

UNODC (2016). World Drug Report – West and 
Central Asia. 

UNODC (2014). The illicit drug trade through South-
Eastern Europe. 

UNODC (2013a). Transnational Organized Crime in 
West Africa: A Threat Assessment. 

UNODC (2013b). Transnational Organized Crime in 
Eastern Africa: A Threat Assessment. 

UNODC (2012). Transnational Organized Crime 
in Central America and the Caribbean: A Threat 
Assessment. 

UNODC (2011). The Transatlantic Cocaine Market: 
Research Paper. 

UNODC (2010a). The Globalisation of Crime: A 
Transnational Crime Threat Assessment. 

UNODC (2010b). Crime and instability: Case studies 
of transnational threats.

17 of 33

fran · q2 2016 Increasing irregular migration 
pressure from the Maghreb region

Since  January  2017,  the  number  of  Alge-
rians,  Moroccans  and  Tunisians  reported 
from the irregular migration routes lead-
ing  towards  Europe  has  been  constantly 
growing. In the history of FRAN data col-
lection (i.e. since 2007), the monthly num-
ber of North Africans detected for illegal 
border-crossing was only higher in March 
2011,  during  the  Arab  Spring,  and  in  No-
vember 2015, at the peak of the migration 
crisis.  In  Q3  2017,  7  965  persons  of  these 
three Maghreb nationalities were reported 
from the EU’s external borders, which rep-
resents an increase of 69% compared with 
the previous quarter and of 116% in rela-
tion to Q3 2016.

The  vast  majority  of  irregular  migrants 
from North Africa entered the EU on boats 
along the Western and Central Mediter-
ranean  routes,  and  –  to  a  lesser  extent 
–  through  the  Eastern  Mediterranean. 
A closer analysis, however, reveals substan-
tial differences in the patterns of move-
ment between the three nationalities. 

In spite of increases, irregular 
migration of Algerians more regional 
than national phenomenon 

Detections of Algerians at the EU’s exter-
nal borders more than doubled between 
Q2  and  Q3  2017,  reaching  almost  2  300 
illegal  border-crossings,  i.e.  the  highest 
level since the Arab Spring. The increased 
flow was first reported from the Spanish 
sea borders in June and July 2017, and by 
August it had also transpired in the Cen-
tral Mediterranean. Notwithstanding the 
sharp increase in the irregular migration 
flow of Algerians in the Mediterranean, in 
Q3 2017, this flow represented only 5% of 
the total. The fact that the vast majority of 
Algerian nationals departing towards Italy 
come from the province of Annaba would 

suggest a regional migration issue rather 
than a national phenomenon.

‘Push’ and ‘pull’ factors remained the same 
as in previous years. The main reasons for 
emigration mentioned by interviewed mi-
grants  who  left  the  country  towards  It-
aly were: socio-economic hardship, lack of 
perspectives, claimed prosecution for po-
litical and religious reasons by the Alge-
rian authorities and lack of returns from 
the EU to Algeria.

The  intra-EU  secondary  movements  re-
ported by Member States clearly point to 
a route from Italy to France, with a branch 
from Spain being less visible. However, the 
strong increase in Algerian nationals re-
ported from the EU’s external sea borders 
was  not  reflected  in  the  trend  in  detec-
tions  of  illegal  stay,  which  only  grew  by 
2%  between  the  second  and  third  quar-
ter of 2017. 

With almost 2 000 applications in Q3 2017, 
a number comparable with the previous 
quarter, the share of Algerians seeking for 
asylum in the EU is relatively high, in spite 
of a first-instance asylum rejection rate of 
more than 90%. Around one-third of the 
applications is reported by France.

Most North African irregular 
migrants from Morocco

For the last 12 months, Moroccans showed 
to be the main North African nationality 
responsible  for  irregular  migration  pres-
sure. With 3 527 illegal border-crossings in 
Q3, the number of Moroccan arrivals was 
8% higher than in the previous quarter and 
166% higher than one year ago. FRAN data 
clearly show that the Central Mediterra-
nean was the route of choice for Moroc-
cans to reach the EU. 

18 of 33

II. Featured risk analysesFigure 2.  Irregular migration and returns of Moroccans, Algerians and Tunisians

Italy – effective returns
Spain – effective returns

 Italy – illegal border-crossing
Spain – illegal border-crossing

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

 Q1

Q2

Q3

2015

2016

2017

Source: FRAN data

Migrants  from  Morocco  reportedly  use 
two different routes to reach Libya, both 
running through Tunisia. In order to enter 
Tunisia, Moroccan nationals typically use 
either work visas or personal invitations. 
The first route involves air travel from Cas-
ablanca to Tunis and then overland journey 
to the border with Libya. The second route 
also involves Moroccan migrants travelling 
by air, but this time, from Casablanca to 
Mitigia airport transiting via Tunis.

Traditionally, Moroccan migrants see Libya 
as an alternative route to the direct route 
to Spain, where the bilateral agreement 
with  Morocco  enables  the  Spanish  au-
thorities to return irregular Moroccan mi-
grants within a relatively short period of 
time. However, in Q3 2017, the preferen-
tial route of Moroccans changed, result-
ing in the highest number of Moroccans 
detected at the Spanish sea border since 
FRAN data collection began in 2007. 

The most common modus operandi used by 
Moroccan migrants in the Western Medi-
terranean is crossing the Strait of Gibral-
tar aboard toy boats or inflatable rubber 
boats. Nevertheless, they are constantly 
searching for faster and more secure ways 
to  reach  the  Spanish  coast  undetected, 
due to the fact that, in  the event  of ap-
prehension, they are quickly repatriated. 
The sharp surge in the summer period was 
mainly due to a new modus operandi, i.e. use 
of high-capacity boats capable of trans-
ferring large groups of migrants from the 

Figure 3.  Routes of migration of Moroccans, Algerians and Tunisians

Moroccans

Algerians

Tunisians

Portugal

Spain

France

Italy

Morocco

Tunisia

Algeria

Libya

Figure 4.  Aggregate detections of illegal border-crossing by Moroccans, Algerians and 

Tunisians at EU’s external borders in July 2016–September 2017

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Source: FRAN data

2016

2017

19 of 33

fran · q2 2016Western Coast of Morocco, mainly depart-
ing from Larache and Kenitra.

Until July 2017, Italy had been the country 
reporting  the  largest  secondary  move-
ments  of  Moroccan  migrants,  mostly 
towards France. However, the level of in-
tra-Schengen  movements  of  Moroccans 
from Italy has fallen since their migratory 
flows have shifted to the Western Medi-
terranean route.

Irregular migration flow of Tunisians 
becoming more intense and more 
risky

The vast majority of Tunisian irregular mi-
grants try to enter the EU by boat from 
their own country. In the third quarter of 
2017, the number of Tunisians detected in 
the Central Mediterranean was more than 
six times higher than in the previous quar-
ter and more than four times higher than 
one year ago, amounting to almost 2 065 
(of the total 2 150 detections of Tunisians). 
In August and September 2017, the num-
ber of migrants per boat increased signif-
icantly from an average of 12 in previous 
months to 24.

Most  incidents  involved  small  wooden 
boats or rubber dinghies that either tar-
geted Pantelleria, Lampedusa or the west-
ern coast of Sicily. Some irregular migrants 

departing from Tunisia organise their sea 
crossing on their own by purchasing a rub-
ber dinghy and an outboard engine or by 
contacting  fishermen  who  take  4-8  mi-
grants aboard their vessels while under-
taking fishing activities and drop them off 
close to Italian territorial waters on a rub-
ber/plastic boat. The migrants then nav-
igate towards the Italian coast.

The majority of irregularly arriving Tuni-
sian nationals apparently intends to work 
illegally rather than to apply for asylum in 
the EU. The respective Eurostat indicator 
shows a very low number of 370 first-time 
asylum applications during Q3 2017 (-11% 
in relation to Q2 2017), which can be ex-
plained  by  a  very  high  asylum  rejection 
rate of more than 90%. 

Irregular migration routes significantly 
affected by level of return cooperation

The extent of return cooperation, the ef-
fectiveness of readmission agreements and 
Member State return capacities had sub-
stantial impact on the volume and routes 
of  irregular  migration  flows  from  North 
Africa. 

In  conclusion,  as  the  example  of  these 
three migrant nationalities shows, a har-
monised European return policy would be 
a crucial element of a joint strategy pre-
venting  irregular  migration  in  the  long 
term.

At  the  same  time,  several  cases  of  pre-
vention  of  departure  were  reported  by 
the Tunisian authorities. The intensive pa-
trolling activity of the Tunisian authorities 
was one of the key factors that has pre-
vented larger levels of irregular migration 
from Tunisia to the EU in the past.

The Tunisian diaspora in traditional desti-
nation countries in Europe, such as France 
or Belgium, shows to be a strong pull fac-
tor which affects the secondary irregular 
migration  routes  of  Tunisians  in  Europe. 
The shared language and the close historic 
relationship  between  these  two  franco-
phone  countries  and  Tunisia  (e.g.  similar 
system of education) makes them attrac-
tive destinations for Tunisians. It is hardly 
surprising  that  most  Tunisians  travelling 
undocumented  in  the  EU  are  detected 
between  the  most  prevalent  country  of 
arrival, Italy, and the preferred countries 
of destination: France and, to a lesser ex-
tent, Belgium. 

20 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewIII.  Statistical annex

LEGEND

Symbols and abbreviations:  n.a.  not applicable 

: 

  data not available

Source:   FRAN and EDF-RAN data as of 21 November 2017,  

unless otherwise indicated

21 of 33

fran · q2 2016 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Q4

Q1

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Annex Table 1.  Illegal border-crossing between BCPs

Detections reported at the external borders, by border type and top ten nationalities

All Borders

Syria

Iraq

Morocco

Afghanistan

Nigeria

Pakistan

Algeria

Tunisia

Côte d'Ivoire

Albania

Other

Q2

4 241

1 993

996

7 380

8 527

3 361

571

246

4 387

1 527

42 061

2016

Q3

4 481

2 277

1 328

3 978

3 784

2 396

2 789

3 086

15 339

10 444

4 308

1 951

414

3 868

1 158

3 348

2 052

503

4 287

1 353

43 804

34 367

2017

Q2

3 948

2 241

3 271

859

11 002

3 301

1 004

436

5 806

1 885

2 920

1 118

1 975

1 568

3 192

2 142

876

190

3 299

1 643

20 046

7 132

4 107

3 527

3 050

3 013

2 792

2 289

2 149

2 144

1 975

41 430

17 777

Total All Borders

75 290

82 906

68 409

38 969

75 183

49 955

Land Borders

Pakistan

Albania

Afghanistan

Syria

Turkey

Iraq

Kosovo*

Guinea

Algeria

Vietnam

Other

2 119

1 443

6 061

1 717

350

1 103

163

48

108

144

1 518

1 124

2 677

1 274

186

852

265

87

101

179

1 444

1 313

2 144

1 156

176

533

163

456

113

93

1 068

1 553

1 295

842

166

408

239

456

153

33

1 471

1 152

1 229

1 106

1 210

1 659

392

626

265

592

165

44

22

57

702

1 840

1 685

1 351

1 097

1 009

449

299

152

111

110

1 026

Total Land Border

14 727

9 415

8 820

7 319

5 734

9 129

Sea Borders

Syria

Iraq

Morocco

Nigeria

Algeria

Tunisia

Côte d'Ivoire

Mali

Guinea

Afghanistan

Other

2 524

890

856

3 207

1 425

1 246

2 628

1 863

2 773

8 509

15 332

10 437

463

232

4 367

2 624

4 337

1 319

1 850

409

3 847

3 065

3 654

1 301

1 939

494

4 221

3 017

4 969

942

2 078

710

1 945

3 179

723

183

3 232

1 160

3 488

273

3 322

1 649

3 261

10 988

982

430

5 754

3 688

5 254

467

6 035

3 658

3 480

3 006

2 178

2 090

2 085

1 733

1 731

1 699

34 442

38 155

26 306

14 679

33 654

13 131

Total Sea Border

60 563

73 491

59 589

31 650

69 449

40 826

59

80

166

-23

-80

-35

17

419

-45

71

-59

-40

21

50

-50

-14

442

-47

13

75

9.9

-39

-11

-3

88

157

179

-80

18

411

-46

-43

-53

31

-66

-44

81

83

7.8

255

-73

-15

128

393

-63

4.8

-57

-34

52

1.6

245

75

281

-24

81

245

405

93

46

59

82

122

6.7

-73

122

386

-64

-53

-67

264

-61

-41

14

8.2

7.1

6.1

6

5.6

4.6

4.3

4.3

4

36

100

20

18

15

12

11

4.9

3.3

1.7

1.2

1.2

11

100

15

9

8.5

7.4

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

32

100

*  This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence 

22 of 33
22 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 2.  Clandestine entries at BCPs

Detections reported at the external borders, by border type and top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

372

68

112

34

10

134

33

28

4

16

1

0

68

584

105

86

17

26

304

102

30

11

20

2

2

89

369

154

90

91

25

125

59

16

13

11

5

1

87

 440

 689

 523

438

128

94

53

24

48

196

8

6

10

0

0

127

 566

485

211

109

80

22

14

269

38

14

9

1

1

139

 696

179

87

31

30

27

25

20

13

12

12

11

11

74

 266

-69

-17

-64

76

3.8

-92

-80

-57

9.1

-40

n.a.

n.a.

-17

-61

-63

-59

-72

-63

23

79

-93

-66

-14

33

n.a.

n.a.

-47

67

33

12

11

10

9.4

7.5

4.9

4.5

4.5

4.1

4.1

28

-62

100

Border Type

Land

Sea

.

Top Ten Nationalities

Guinea

Iraq

Algeria

Syria

Afghanistan

Albania

Turkey

Tunisia

Sierra Leone

Guinea-Bissau

Other

Total

23 of 33
23 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016Annex Table 3.  Facilitators

Detections reported at the external borders, by place of detection and top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

1 744

1 129

1 314

1 235

1 233

1 077

210

214

159

1 195

53

644

313

148

122

42

203

175

112

170

49

1 597

3 575

532

227

179

597

58

506

255

164

63

85

65

97

75

141

42

1 229

2 722

800

171

397

534

83

529

341

258

60

101

106

92

75

122

69

956

312

208

76

66

298

330

192

105

55

141

116

75

129

70

853

186

198

58

59

130

176

162

75

71

164

129

102

170

52

598

248

203

84

75

250

153

122

114

99

94

91

91

88

73

1 546

3 299

1 342

2 853

1 356

2 587

1 110

2 285

-4.6

12

9.3

13

-86

29

-51

-40

-26

81

16

45

-6.2

21

-38

74

-9.7

-16

-13

-30

33

2.5

45

27

92

-13

-25

52

39

-43

-29

-11

-48

40

-18

-12

47

26

11

8.9

3.7

3.3

11

6.7

5.3

5

4.3

4.1

4

4

3.9

3.2

49

100

Place of Detection

Inland

Land

Sea

Land Intra EU

Not specified

Air

.

Top Ten Nationalities

Not specified

Morocco

Albania

Romania

Syria

Italy

France

Pakistan

Spain

Turkey

Other

Total

24 of 33
24 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 4.  Illegal stay

Detections reported at the external borders and inland, by place of detection and top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Place of detection

Inland

Air

Land

Land Intra EU

Sea

Between BCPs

Top Ten Nationalities

Ukraine

Morocco

Iraq

Albania

Pakistan

97 047

12 281

5 054

1 478

161

598

6 642

6 732

6 671

4 771

5 201

106 896

13 391

6 680

1 602

171

:

8 068

6 938

5 850

6 430

4 895

Afghanistan

14 306

11 946

3 849

1 997

3 408

7 129

4 255

2 935

4 222

5 999

Algeria

Sudan

Nigeria

Syria

Other

Total

97 448

12 645

7 253

1 726

158

:

9 091

7 317

6 308

7 975

4 769

8 359

4 532

1 691

3 937

4 496

89 036

10 998

5 292

1 118

132

:

7 275

8 395

5 191

6 417

4 637

5 447

4 811

1 607

3 826

3 087

87 218

10 647

6 581

977

169

:

8 014

8 019

3 948

6 136

5 098

5 507

4 302

3 789

3 616

3 294

87 546

13 557

8 789

1 328

254

:

7 933

6 950

6 264

5 825

5 411

5 306

4 387

4 132

3 763

3 686

55 913

67 202

60 755

55 883

53 869

57 817

116 619

128 740

119 230

106 576

105 592

111 474

Since July 2016 detections ‘between BCPs’ are no longer available accordance with new template for Illegal stay indicator.

-18

1.2

32

-17

49

n.a

-1.7

0.2

7.1

-9.4

11

-56

3.1

41

-11

-39

-14

-13

0.4

27

34

36

50

n.a

-1

-13

59

-5.1

6.1

-3.6

2

9.1

4.1

12

7.3

5.6

79

12

7.9

1.2

0.2

7.1

6.2

5.6

5.2

4.9

4.8

3.9

3.7

3.4

3.3

52

100

25 of 33
25 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016Annex Table 5.  Refusals of entry

Refusals of entry reported at the external borders, by border type and top ten nationalities

All Borders

Russia
Ukraine
Albania
Serbia
Belarus
Moldova
Turkey
Morocco
Bosnia and Herzegovina
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Other

Total All Borders

Land Borders

2016

Q3

41 540
7 944
4 851
1 759
1 525
932
1 227
917
806
570
14 744

Q2

18 591
6 733
4 715
1 634
1 222
1 000
641
1 208
1 387
407
14 169

Q4

Q1

14 758
6 956
6 426
1 568
1 869
1 195
870
860
931
485
18 191

7 720
8 518
7 910
1 816
1 609
1 298
1 008
1 130
967
590
12 446

2017

Q2

8 802
9 055
9 041
1 783
1 849
1 308
1 208
956
920
540
11 931

10 656
9 712
7 442
2 349
1 929
1 651
1 383
1 058
966
810
11 996

51 707

76 815

54 109

45 012

47 393

49 952

Russia
Ukraine
Albania
Serbia
Belarus
Moldova
Turkey
Bosnia and Herzegovina
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Georgia
Other

18 291
6 372
2 871
1 409
1 187
638
345
1 315
293
389
5 383

41 165
7 566
3 078
1 567
1 472
606
774
754
451
394
4 975

14 393
6 558
2 879
1 341
1 819
829
533
867
324
326
8 220

7 439
8 132
3 999
1 518
1 565
802
690
907
451
196
2 716

8 363
8 589
5 400
1 471
1 794
741
774
838
384
256
1 740

10 175
9 220
5 100
1 988
1 856
1 231
910
847
623
390
1 929

Total Land Border

38 493

62 802

38 089

28 415

30 350

34 269

Air Borders

Albania
Brazil
United States
Ukraine
Russia
Moldova
Georgia
China
Not specified
Morocco
Other

Total Air Border

Sea Borders

Albania
Morocco
Turkey
Syria
Not specified
Iraq
Afghanistan
Algeria
Iran
Tunisia
Other

1 050
927
398
333
289
359
80
338
316
277
7 286

947
839
434
352
353
324
111
362
295
249
7 671

2 142
1 097
344
386
326
365
108
290
351
281
8 128

2 206
927
402
381
259
494
119
402
336
326
8 034

2 121
857
384
430
422
567
389
323
353
308
8 253

1 378
711
520
471
467
420
409
365
358
354
7 592

11 653

11 937

13 818

13 886

14 407

13 045

794
246
70
30
33
17
32
26
17
49
247

826
278
171
87
21
62
42
29
30
53
477

1 405
228
49
25
20
66
42
14
18
31
304

1 705
482
45
31
18
27
46
34
10
26
287

1 520
440
93
34
21
40
66
55
28
35
304

964
559
152
113
98
85
73
52
32
30
480

Total Sea Border

1 561

2 076

2 202

2 711

2 636

2 638

26 of 33
26 of 33

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

-74
22
53
34
26
77
13
15
20
42
-19

-35

-75
22
66
27
26
103
18
12
38
-1
-61

-45

46
-15
20
34
32
30
268
0.8
21
42
-1

9.3

17
101
-11
30
367
37
74
79
6.7
-43
0.6

27

21
7.3
-18
32
4.3
26
14
11
5
50
0.5

5.4

22
7.3
-5.6
35
3.5
66
18
1.1
62
52
11

13

-35
-17
35
9.5
11
-26
5.1
13
1.4
15
-8

21
19
15
4.7
3.9
3.3
2.8
2.1
1.9
1.6
24

100

30
27
15
5.8
5.4
3.6
2.7
2.5
1.8
1.1
5.6

100

11
5.5
4
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.7
58

-9.5

100

-37
27
63
232
367
113
11
-5.5
14
-14
58

0.1

37
21
5.8
4.3
3.7
3.2
2.8
2
1.2
1.1
18

100

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 6.  Refusals of entry

Refusals of entry at the external borders reported by reason for refusal and top ten nationalities

2017 Q3 – Reasons for refusals of entry (see description below)

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

n.a.

Refused  
persons  
Total

10 656

9 712

7 442

2 349

1 929

1 651

1 383

1 058

966

799

12 007

Top Ten Nationalities

Russia

Ukraine

Albania

Serbia

Belarus

Moldova

Turkey

Morocco

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Georgia

Other

Total

21

33

36

22

19

3

173

39

134

0

886

2

37

47

16

0

4

13

22

2

1

9 454

2 253

62

104

655

168

774

176

7

49

6

2

5

3

0

0

6

20

3

3

379

4 009

2 108

252

254

523

126

561

222

450

85

524

490

1 014

103

127

203

20

65

2

233

2 912

155

2 317

574

215

1 054

2 141

61

752

1 966

206

398

639

32

59

174

76

806

686

43

119

30

75

343

144

663

Total  
Reasons

10 668

9 712

7 123

2 333

1 941

1 613

1 381

1 052

958

803

1

49 483

381

19

43

10

202

3

6

38

5

6

134

847

64

1 029

225

20

267

27

18

42

3

72

3 219

4 986

49 952

1 366

377

16 614

203

11 201

3 207

5 800

4 882

Descriptions of the reasons for refusal of entry:
A  has no valid travel document(s);
B  has a false/counterfeit/forged travel document;
C  has no valid visa or residence permit;
D  has a false/counterfeit/forged visa or residence permit;
E  has no appropriate documentation justifying the purpose and conditions of stay;
F  has already stayed for three months during a six months period on the territory of the Member States of the EU;
G  does not have sufficient means of subsistence in relation to the period and form of stay, or the means to return to the country of origin or transit;
H 
I 

is a person for whom an alert has been issued for the purposes of refusing entry in the SIS or in the national register;
 is considered to be a threat for public policy, internal security, public health or the international relations of one or more Member States of the EU.

27 of 33
27 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016Annex Table 7.  Refusals of entry

Refusals of entry at the external borders, by reason for refusal and border type

2016

2017

% change on

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Highest share

2017 Q3

Total All Borders

51 805

76 631

54 892

45 715

48 191

49 483

All Borders

C) No valid visa

E) No justification

G) No subsistence

Reason not available

H) Alert issued

F) Over 3 month stay

A) No valid document

I) Threat

B) False document

D) False visa

Land Borders

C) No valid visa

E) No justification

G) No subsistence

H) Alert issued

F) Over 3 month stay

Reason not available

I) Threat

A) No valid document

B) False document

D) False visa

25 323

52 125

22 899

14 035

14 366

16 614

-68

9 973

3 428

5 927

2 684

1 722

1 488

791

282

187

8 959

3 645

3 583

3 091

2 326

1 521

827

342

212

12 680

14 111

14 186

11 201

6 604

3 819

3 744

2 359

1 161

874

508

244

4 376

3 441

3 917

2 989

1 327

886

401

232

5 516

3 759

4 461

2 706

1 532

963

475

227

5 800

4 986

4 882

3 207

1 366

847

377

203

23 012

49 286

20 364

11 574

11 713

13 865

-72

5 276

2 305

1 668

1 254

3 449

571

902

54

42

4 779

2 536

1 979

1 768

1 051

644

684

74

33

6 761

4 954

1 945

1 732

1 085

651

438

144

65

7 503

2 722

1 866

2 294

1 146

656

563

84

64

7 795

4 067

2 270

2 019

1 183

732

558

92

28

7 026

4 515

3 553

2 590

1 426

641

604

102

28

Total Land Border

38 533

62 834

38 139

28 472

30 457

34 350

Air Borders

E) No justification

Reason not available

C) No valid visa

G) No subsistence

H) Alert issued

A) No valid document

F) Over 3 month stay

B) False document

I) Threat

D) False visa

4 301

2 288

2 138

869

661

466

442

208

194

141

3 755

2 408

2 554

921

611

362

523

254

165

168

5 415

2 492

2 387

1 336

1 050

545

602

356

198

168

5 818

2 162

2 337

1 353

995

537

657

305

204

160

5 546

2 381

2 437

1 353

1 205

784

625

364

206

196

3 464

2 921

2 461

1 249

897

583

555

264

182

156

Total Air Border

11 708

11 721

14 549

14 528

15 097

12 732

Sea Borders

E) No justification

Reason not available

H) Alert issued

C) No valid visa

A) No valid document

F) Over 3 month stay

G) No subsistence

I) Threat

D) False visa

B) False document

396

190

355

173

120

26

254

26

4

20

425

124

501

285

475

35

188

18

11

14

504

242

749

148

178

25

314

25

11

8

790

133

1 056

124

227

38

301

26

8

12

845

195

986

216

190

62

96

25

3

19

711

639

432

288

179

62

36

24

19

11

Total Sea Border

1 564

2 076

2 204

2 715

2 637

2 401

28 of 33
28 of 33

16

-21

5.1

33

9.4

19

-11

-12

-21

-11

2.7

18

-9.9

11

57

28

21

-12

8.2

11

0

13

-38

23

1

-7.7

-26

-26

-11

-27

-12

-20

-16

-16

228

-56

33

-5.8

0

-63

-4

n.a.

-42

34

23

12

10

9.9

6.5

2.8

1.7

0.8

0.4

100

40

20

13

10

7.5

4.2

1.9

1.8

0.3

0.1

100

27

23

19

9.8

7

4.6

4.4

2.1

1.4

1.2

100

30

27

18

12

7.5

2.6

1.5

1

0.8

0.5

-8.9

100

Nationality

Russia (57%)

Ukraine (36%)

Albania (37%)

Ukraine (21%)

Albania (40%)

Serbia (32%)

Turkey (13%)

Russia (45%)

Albania (12%)

India (11%)

Nationality

Russia (66%)

Ukraine (55%)

Albania (45%)

Albania (37%)

Serbia (37%)

Ukraine (67%)

Russia (56%)

Afghanistan (25%)

Ukraine (35%)

India (32%)

Nationality

Albania (14%)

United States (12%)

Russia (10%)

Albania (9%)

Albania (31%)

Not specified (25%)

Albania (17%)

Not specified (13%)

Albania (16%)

Pakistan (9%)

Nationality

Morocco (62%)

Albania (11%)

Albania (88%)

Turkey (20%)

Turkey (37%)

Albania (61%)

Albania (39%)

Albania (50%)

Not specified (42%)

Morocco (45%)

25

59

39

58

38

-10

2.4

10

-4.2

-35

47

78

80

46

36

-0.5

-12

38

-15

-45

-7.7

21

-3.6

36

47

61

6.1

3.9

10

-7.1

8.6

67

415

-14

1.1

-62

77

-81

33

73

-21

16

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 8.  Document fraud

Fraudulent document users detected on entry from third countries, by border type and top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

1 182

1 124

Border Type

Air

Land

Sea

Not specified

.

Top Ten Nationalities Claimed

Morocco

Ukraine

Iran

Not specified

Albania

Russia

Turkey

Syria

Iraq

Senegal

Other

Total

955

607

58

0

142

339

92

158

94

39

36

52

47

25

596

566

115

0

223

326

95

172

67

39

52

55

113

35

686

475

118

0

219

196

115

149

138

41

50

60

63

20

2017

Q2

1 123

480

77

1

147

252

88

146

81

52

65

48

35

41

980

532

80

23

202

250

57

128

110

83

44

41

38

20

1 620

1 863

1 717

1 615

1 681

1 660

666

642

726

622

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

-13

-29

95

n.a

17

-48

54

-27

-1.5

69

25

15

-66

5.7

-9.3

-11

-7.9

-16

191

n.a

78

-32

66

-14

-19

27

0

31

8.6

-9.8

-14

-1.2

62

24

13

16

10

8.8

7.5

4

4

3.9

3.8

2.3

2.2

37

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Annex Table 9.  Document fraud

False documents detected on entry from third country to the EU or Schengen area, by type of document

Document Type

Passports

ID cards

Visas

Residence permits

Stamps

Other

Total

2016

Q3

701

281

629

318

223

41

Q2

611

268

502

258

195

46

Q4

Q1

712

371

404

302

218

64

656

299

465

298

183

61

2017

Q2

782

311

459

282

179

56

1 880

2 193

2 071

1 962

2 069

1 973

1 034

402

224

0

261

171

146

125

66

66

65

63

38

37

675

352

428

285

171

62

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

34

18

22

14

8.7

3.1

100

-3.7

25

-32

-10

-23

51

-10

-14

13

-6.8

1.1

-4.5

11

-4.6

29 of 33
29 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016Annex Table 10.  Return decisions issued

Return decisions issued, by top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Top Ten Nationalities

Ukraine

Morocco

Iraq

Albania

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Syria

Algeria

Tunisia

India

Other

Total

5 954

5 509

6 579

4 132

8 728

3 340

1 800

1 874

1 038

2 148

6 582

5 336

7 350

4 367

8 774

4 368

2 272

2 651

1 204

1 898

7 713

5 819

8 720

5 086

10 232

3 915

3 548

3 273

1 517

1 999

6 459

5 356

5 079

4 176

6 440

3 696

1 914

2 185

1 079

1 924

7 226

6 913

4 557

4 537

5 036

3 607

1 821

2 377

1 107

1 746

8 576

6 191

5 267

4 464

4 185

4 168

3 078

2 903

2 102

1 818

32 732

33 869

34 103

30 637

33 345

34 302

73 834

78 671

85 925

68 945

72 272

77 054

30

16

-28

2.2

-52

-4.6

35

9.5

75

-4.2

1.3

-2.1

19

-10

16

-1.6

-17

16

69

22

90

4.1

2.9

6.6

11

8

6.8

5.8

5.4

5.4

4

3.8

2.7

2.4

45

100

Annex Table 11.  Effective returns

People effectively returned to third countries, by top ten nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Top Ten Nationalities

Albania

Ukraine

Pakistan

Morocco

Russia

Iraq

India

Tunisia

Serbia

Georgia

Other

Total

6 897

4 859

1 734

2 166

914

3 407

2 505

707

1 914

588

6 509

5 836

1 184

1 803

992

2 328

1 336

679

1 630

670

6 852

6 607

1 371

1 663

927

2 167

1 309

1 043

1 467

720

6 323

4 873

2 078

1 631

1 068

1 945

1 588

669

1 327

729

6 638

6 240

1 452

1 612

1 202

1 280

1 008

774

1 176

845

6 249

6 127

1 697

1 442

1 311

1 223

1 203

1 052

1 042

965

20 770

16 855

17 787

17 832

14 396

15 198

46 461

39 822

41 913

40 063

36 623

37 509

-4

5

43

-20

32

-47

-10

55

-36

44

-9.8

-5.8

-5.9

-1.8

17

-11

9.1

-4.5

19

36

-11

14

5.6

2.4

17

16

4.5

3.8

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.8

2.6

41

100

Since October 2015 data for Austria are not available.

30 of 33
30 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Highest share

Nationality

United Kingdom (24%)

Netherlands (44%)

Germany (88%)

Poland (43%)

Greece (34%)

Netherlands (70%)

Annex Table 12.  Effective returns by type of return

People effectively returned to third countries, by to type of return and top ten nationalities

2016

2017

% change on

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2017 Q3

Type of Return

Forced

Enforced by Member State

Not specified

Enforced by Joint Operation

Voluntary

Others

IOM-assisted

Not specified

Not specified

Total

Top Ten Nationalities

Voluntary

Ukraine

Pakistan

Iraq

Russia

Albania

India

Moldova

Georgia

Afghanistan

Belarus

Other

21 435

15 748

4 116

1 571

24 993

15 883

5 821

3 289

33

19 583

14 134

3 693

1 756

20 231

12 360

6 719

1 152

8

20 307

15 886

3 386

1 035

21 518

15 240

4 870

1 408

88

18 882

14 381

3 083

1 418

20 976

13 991

5 870

1 115

205

18 287

14 437

3 016

834

18 295

13 013

4 155

1 127

41

18 894

15 491

2 812

591

18 538

13 292

4 374

872

77

-3.5

9.6

-24

-66

-8.4

7.5

-35

-24

863

46 461

39 822

41 913

40 063

36 623

37 509

-5.8

4 351

1 068

3 226

681

1 407

2 181

268

302

1 465

256

9 788

5 306

812

1 742

760

1 226

948

371

332

1 048

333

7 353

5 987

944

1 930

576

1 225

904

494

391

937

292

7 838

4 402

1 460

1 734

719

1 130

1 201

407

447

1 016

263

8 197

5 519

983

1 084

798

1 018

668

449

496

579

299

5 538

1 151

1 046

936

921

800

628

562

432

422

6 402

6 102

4.4

42

-40

23

-25

-16

69

69

-59

27

-17

Total Voluntary Returns

24 993

20 231

21 518

20 976

18 295

18 538

-8.4

Forced

Albania

Morocco

Tunisia

Serbia

Kosovo*

Ukraine

Pakistan

Algeria

United States

the former Yugoslav Republic 
of Macedonia

5 471

1 885

623

1 308

1 293

507

666

658

378

547

5 279

1 642

635

1 061

1 384

530

372

585

351

391

5 591

1 486

5 182

1 378

5 603

1 192

5 310

1 190

988

816

919

620

427

592

341

397

598

806

834

471

618

691

331

332

702

786

668

721

469

575

208

431

990

772

608

586

546

533

441

439

Other

8 099

7 353

8 130

7 641

6 932

7 479

0.6

-28

56

-27

-56

11

47

-8.9

26

12

1.7

Total Forced Returns

21 435

19 583

20 307

18 882

18 287

18 894

-3.5

3.3

7.3

-6.8

-29

1.3

2.1

5.3

-23

88

2.4

0.3

17

-3.5

17

-9.5

20

40

13

-25

41

-4.7

1.3

-5.2

-0.2

41

-1.8

-9

-19

16

-7.3

112

1.9

7.9

3.3

50

41

7.5

1.6

49

36

12

2.3

0.2

100

30

6.2

5.6

5

5

4.3

3.4

3

2.3

2.3

33

100

28

6.3

5.2

4.1

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.3

40

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence 

31 of 33
31 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016Annex Table 13.  Passenger flow on entry

Passenger flow reported at the external borders, by border type and group of nationalities

2016

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2017

Q2

2017 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Border Type

Air

Land

Sea

Nationality

Not specified

EU

39 424 006

49 336 400

38 346 824

33 511 447

39 859 247

54 446 516

24 966 971

34 558 469

24 979 444

23 021 240

28 331 290

35 465 122

5 383 035

7 986 795

3 017 360

2 040 773

4 313 445

4 181 697

47 499 753

60 489 692

43 650 662

35 162 159

43 324 173

57 694 318

12 448 972

19 756 131

12 238 250

11 314 528

15 181 274

20 421 390

Third country requiring visa

8 127 838

9 465 170

8 741 198

10 377 955

11 675 787

13 326 417

Third country not requiring visa

1 697 449

2 170 671

1 713 518

1 718 818

2 322 748

2 651 210

Total

69 774 012 91 881 664 66 343 628 58 573 460 72 503 982 94 093 335

Data for Cyprus are not available for July and August 2017
Data for Czech Republic are not available for September 2017
Data for France are not available since June 2017
Data for Portugal are not available since June 2016

10

2.6

-48

-4.6

3.4

41

22

2.4

37

25

-3.1

33

35

14

14

30

58

38

4.4

61

22

14

2.8

100

32 of 33
32 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Sources and Methods

For the data concerning detections at the 
external borders, some of the border types 
are  not  applicable  to  all  FRAN  Member 
States.  This  pertains  to  data  concerning 
all FRAN indicators since the data are pro-
vided disaggregated by border type. The 
definitions of  detections  at land  borders 
are  therefore  not  applicable  (excluding 
borders with non-Schengen principalities) 
for Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, 
France,  Germany,  Iceland,  Ireland,  Italy, 
Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Por-
tugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the United 
Kingdom. For Cyprus, the land border re-
fers to the Green Line demarcation with 
the area not under the effective control of 
the government of the Republic of Cyprus. 
For sea borders, the definitions are not ap-
plicable for land-locked countries includ-
ing Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, 
Luxembourg, Slovakia and Switzerland.

In  addition,  data  on  detections  of  illegal 
border-crossing at land, air and sea BCPs 
(1B)  are  not  available  for  Iceland,  Ireland 
and Spain, and in Greece (these detections 
are included in the data for Indicator 1A). 
Data for Norway only includes detections 
of illegal border-crossing at land and sea 
BCPs (1B), not between BCPs (1A).

Data on detections of illegal border-cross-
ing between sea BCPs (1A) are not availa-
ble for Ireland.

Data concerning the apprehension (FRAN 
Indicator  2)  of  facilitators  is  not  availa-
ble for Ireland. For Italy, the data are not 
disaggregated  by  border  type,  but  are 
reported as total apprehensions (not spec-
ified). Data for Italy and Norway also in-
clude  the  facilitation  of  illegal  stay  and 
work. For Romania, the data include land 
intra-EU detections on exit at the border 
with Hungary.

For the data concerning detections of ille-
gal stay (FRAN Indicator 3), data concern-
ing  detections  on  exit  are  not  available 
for Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the 
United Kingdom.

Data  on  refusals  of  entry  (FRAN  Indica-
tor 4) at the external EU borders are not 
disaggregated by reason of refusal for Ire-
land and the United Kingdom. Refusals of 
entry at the Spanish land borders of Ceuta 
and Melilla (without the issuance of a re-
fusal form) are reported separately and are 
not included in the presented FRAN data.

The data on applications for international 
protection (FRAN Indicator 5) are not dis-
aggregated by place of application (type of 
border on entry or inland applications) for 
Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. 
For these countries, only the total num-
ber of applications is reported. For France, 
only asylum applications at the external 
borders are reported, not inland applica-
tions.  For  the  United  Kingdom,  data  re-
ported  for  applications  at  air  BCPs  also 
include applications at sea BCPs.

The data on return decisions issued (FRAN 
Indicator 7A) are not available for Ireland, 
France, the Netherlands and Sweden. The 
data  on  effective  returns  (FRAN  Indica-
tor 7B) are not available for Ireland. In ad-
dition, the data of effective returns are not 
disaggregated  by  return  operation  (vol-
untary and forced) for Spain. The data on 
voluntary effective returns (FRAN Indica-
tor 7A) are not disaggregated by type of re-
turn operation (IOM-assisted and others) 
for Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland 
and the Netherlands. The data on forced 
effective returns (FRAN Indicator 7B) are 
not disaggregated by type of return op-
eration (enforced by Member States and 
by Joint Operations) for Belgium, Finland, 
Iceland and the Netherlands.

33 of 33
33 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q2 2016For public release

Risk Analysis Unit

Reference number: 2617 / 2018 

TT-AF-17-003-EN-N 
ISSN 2363-0566

Warsaw, March 2018

Plac Europejski 6 00-844 Warsaw, PolandT +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01frontex@frontex.europa.eu www.frontex.europa.eu