REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL 2017 assessment of the progress made by Member States towards the national energy efficiency targets for 2020 and towards the implementation of the Energy Efficiency Directive as required by Article 24(3) of the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU
Date: 2017-11-23
Institutions: Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, EU programme, energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy saving, energy use, renewable energy

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 23.11.2017  COM(2017) 687 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL 2017 assessment of the progress made by Member States towards the national energy efficiency targets for 2020 and towards the implementation of the Energy Efficiency Directive as required by Article 24(3) of the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU   
 
 
1. 

INTRODUCTION 

In  November  2016  the  European  Commission  proposed  a  revision  of  the  Energy  Efficiency 
Directive (EED)1 as part of the Clean Energy Package. The review aims to adapt the EED to the 
2030  perspective,  by  setting  a  binding  30%  energy  efficiency  target2,  which  effectively 
maintains the current level of ambition. The Commission also proposed simplifying parts of the 
text to make it easier to implement at national level.  

Maintaining the momentum in energy efficiency will not only increase GDP and jobs –  energy 
efficiency is an enabler for the sustainable economy and the construction sector – but will also 
bring  many  other  benefits  to  the  EU  and  its  people,  in  particular  securing  energy  supply  and 
reducing  pollution.  A  binding  30%  energy  efficiency  target  also  contributes  significantly  to 
achieving cost-effectively the EU's 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction  target as 
energy efficiency pays back in the medium and long term. It lowers energy bills, and improves 
living  conditions  in  buildings.  For  companies,  it  can  increase  competitiveness  thanks  to 
monetary savings and greater innovation. 

While  the  proposal  for  a  review  of  the  EED  is  debated  by  the  co-legislators,  the  Commission 
continues  to  monitor  implementation  of  the  current  Directive.  This  2017  report  provides  the 
latest  insights  into  progress  made  up  to  2015  towards  the  20%  target3.  The  official  European 
statistics on energy transmitted by Member States to Eurostat are used as primary data source 
for  evalluating  progress  towards  the  2020  target.  This  report  builds  on  the  2016  Energy 
Efficiency  Progress  Report4,  as  well  as  the  2017  Annual  Reports  and  National  Energy 
Efficiency  Action  Plans  (NEEAPs)  submitted  by  Member  States.  To  better  understand  the 
factors behind recent trends, a decomposition analysis developed by the Joint Research Center 
(JRC)5 and the Odyssee-Mure project6 was used. 

The main findings are as follows: 

  After energy consumption gradually decreased between 2007-2014, it increased in 2015 
in  part  due  to  a  less  warm  winter  and  lower  fuel  prices.  Although  primary  energy 
consumption  rose  by  1.5%  compared  to  2014,  it  was  still  on  track  to  meet  the  2020 
target.  While  final  energy  consumption  also  increased  in  2015,  it  was  still  below  the 
2020 target thanks to savings achieved in previous years. Energy consumption appears to 
have increased further in 2016 following another less warm winter7. 

  Primary energy consumption largely decreased in the post-recession years (2009-2015) 
in  nearly  all  Member  States,  showing  that  economic  recovery  and  growth  could  be 
achieved without increasing national demand for energy. 

1 COM(2016) 860 final. 
2  The  proposed  30%  target  for  2030  translates  into  final  energy  consumption  of  987  Mtoe  and  primary  energy 
consumption of 1321 Mtoe in the EU. 
3  The  2020  target  involves  lowering  the  EU's  final  energy  consumption  to  at  most  1086  Mtoe,  and  its  primary 
energy consumption to at most 1483 Mtoe.  
4 COM(2017) 56 final 
5 JRC (in preparation), Assessing the progress towards the EU efficiency targets using index decomposition 
analysis. 
6 http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html 
7 The European Environmental Agency (EEA) gave preliminary estimates for 2016. 

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in  recent  years.  Weather  corrected  figures  suggest 

  Weather variations8 are one of the main reasons for the fluctuations observed in energy 
that  energy 

consumption 
consumption, after falling from 2005, has been broadly flat since 2012 (Figure 1). 
Increases  in  economic  activity  have  tended  to  push  up  energy  consumption.  Energy 
savings have helped offset this. However, their level was not high enough in 2015 and 
2016 to offset the impact of the growth in economic activity. 

 

  Final energy intensity in industry decreased in almost all Member States in 2015. 
  Member States are making good progress in achieving energy savings under Article 7 of 
the EED. Their collective efforts in 2015 were above the linear trajectory for achieving 
the required savings by 2020. 
In  their  2017  NEEAPs,  several  Member  States  revised  their  indicative  national  targets 
for 2020. While the national targets announced are still consistent with the EU level of 
ambition  for  final  energy  consumption  in  2020  when  taken  together,  the  gap  is  now 
greater for primary energy consumption.  

 

If the declining trend observed since 2005 continues in the coming years, the EU should still be 
on  track  to  achieve  the  2020  target  both  for  both  primary  and  final  energy  consumption9. 
However, if the increases observed in recent years reverse the trend, achieving the 2020 targets 
will require additional efforts.  

Figure 1: GDP and weather corrected final energy consumption in 1995-201510 

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Total final consumption with weather corrections
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8 An exceptionally warm winter in 2014 resulted in much lower heating needs that year. However, 2015 and 2016 
winter temperatures were more in line with the climatic average, increasing heating needs and with it also energy 
consumption in the residential sector and service sector. 
9 The average rate of decrease in primary energy consumption/final energy consumption in the 2005-2015 period is 
higher than the rate of linear decrease from 2005 to the 2020 target. 
10 The weather correction factor was calculated as a proportion of heating degree days (HDD) in a given year over 
the average HDD in the period 1990-2015. This correction factor was applied to the energy consumption used for 
space heating of the residential sector. 

2 

 
 
 
                                                            
 
 
 
Source: Odyssee-Mure 

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 EU ENERGY EFFICIENCY TARGET 

2. 
Final energy consumption11 in the EU fell  by 9.1% from 1192 Mtoe in 2005  to 1084 Mtoe in 
2015,  which  is  slightly  below  the  2020  final  energy  consumption  target  of  1086  Mtoe.  It 
decreased  at  an  annual average  rate of  0.9%  between  2005 and  2015,  although the downward 
trend was interrupted in 2015 when final energy consumption increased by 2.1% compared to 
the previous year. 

Higher  energy  consumption  in  2015  was  mainly  seen  in  the  residential  (+4%  year-on-year 
increase), services (+3.6%) and transport sectors (+1.7%). The increases in the residential  and 
service  sectors  were  mainly  due  to  the  slightly  colder  winter  compared  to  the  previous  year, 
which  was  exceptionally  warm.  Early  estimates  by  the  EEA  also  indicate  that  final  energy 
consumption  rose  by  2%  in  2016  compared  to  2015,  again  possibly  driven  by  a  less  warm 
winter and economic growth12. 
In 2015, transport accounted for 33% of final energy consumption, followed by the residential 
sector and industry (both 25%), the service sector (14%) and other sectors (3%). 

Primary energy consumption13 in the EU dropped by 10.6% from 1713 Mtoe in 2005 to 1531 
Mtoe in 2015, which is 3.2% above the 2020 target of 1483 Mtoe. It decreased on average by 
1.1% per year between 2005 and 2015, but rose in 2015 by 1.5% compared to the previous year. 
The  proxy  estimates  of  the  EEA  indicate  a  year-on-year  increase  of  0.6%  in    primary  energy 
consumption in 2016. 

3. 

NATIONAL TARGETS 

Some  Member  States  communicated  in  their  2017  National  Energy  Efficiency  Action  Plans 
(NEEAPs)  that  their  national  indicative  2020  energy  efficiency  targets  have  been  revised  to 
adapt  to  the  latest  national  policy  plans  or  to  more  recent  forecasts14.  Two  Member  States 
revised their final energy target upwards and one downwards15, while three increased and two 
decreased their indicative 2020 target for primary energy consumption16. 

When  looking  at  the  average  annual  reductions  needed  to  reach  the  indicative  targets,  18 
Member  States  made  good  progress  in  2015  to  reach  their  indicative  targets  in  terms  of  final 
energy  consumption.  By  contrast  Austria,  Belgium,  Bulgaria,  France,  Germany,  Hungary, 
Lithuania,  Malta,  Slovakia  and  Sweden  were  not  reducing  their  final  energy  consumption  
annually at a pace to ensure that they meet their 2020 target. On primary energy consumption, 
five  Member  States  –  Bulgaria,  Estonia,  France,  Germany  and  the  Netherlands  –  were  not 
making savings at a sufficient pace up to 2015 to reach their targets in 2020. 

11  Final  energy  consumption  is  the  energy  supplied  to  industry,  transport,  households,  services  and  agriculture, 
excluding deliveries to the energy transformation sector and the energy industries themselves.  
12  The  reason  why  weather  variability  has  such  impact  on  energy  consumption  is  that  households  account  for  a 
quarter of final energy consumption, using two thirds of this to heat their homes. This also concerns buildings that 
are heated in the service sector, but for the time being there are not official data on them available. 
13 Primary energy consumption means gross inland consumption excluding non-energy uses. 
14 This is assessment is made on the basis of the NEEAPs submitted to the European Commission by 1.10.2017. 
15 Malta and Spain upwards; Croatia downwards.  
16 The Czech Republic, Malta and Spain upwards, Croatia and Denmark downwards. 

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Overall, the final energy consumption of 18 Member States was already below their indicative 
2020  final  energy  target  in  201517.  Similarly,  19 Member  States  reached their  primary  energy 
consumption levels or kept them (given the recent increase) below their indicative 2020 primary 
energy target in 201518. However, due to the recent revisions made to the national targets,  the 
gap between the sum of national targets and the EU target grew even further for primary energy 
consumption. For final energy consumption the national indicative targets add up to a total of 
1085  Mtoe,  i.e.  1  Mtoe  below  the  EU  target;  for  primary  energy  consumption  they  add  up  to 
1533 Mtoe i.e. 50 Mtoe above the EU target. 

4. 

ENERGY  CONSUMPTION  TRENDS  AND  ASSESSMENT  OF  NATIONAL  MEASURES  BY 
SECTOR  

Final energy consumption has fallen in all Member States since 2005 except in Lithuania, Malta 
and Poland. Compared to 2014, final energy consumption rose in all but five Member States in 
2015,  with  the  largest  reductions  registered  in  Latvia  (-2.5%),  Estonia  (-1.8%)  and  Finland  (-
1.3%). The highest increases were in Hungary (+6.9%), Greece (+6.3%) and Croatia (+5.5%). 
The  decreases  and  increases  in  these  countries  were  linked  to  a  large  extent  to  weather 
conditions. 

Primary energy consumption has fallen in all Member States since 2005 except in Estonia and 
Poland.  However,  in  2015  primary  energy  consumption  increased  in  most  Member  States 
compared  to  the  previous  year,  with  highest  increases  in  Hungary  (+5.9%),  Portugal  (+4.9%) 
and  Ireland  (+4.6%).  Malta  reported  the  highest  year-on-year  decrease  (-14.9%),  followed  by 
Estonia (-6.3%) and Sweden (-5.5%). 

Looking at the post-crisis years (2009-2015) provides an insight into more recent developments 
during the economic recovery. 

Figure 2: GDP and primary energy consumption, 2009-2015 

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Variation of primary energy consumption (2009-2015)

Variation of GDP (2009-2015), chain linked volumes (2010)

17 Except Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Ireland, France, Lithuania, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, Sweden, the United 
Kingdom. 
18  Except  Belgium,  Bulgaria,  Cyprus,  Germany,  France,  Austria,  the  Netherlands,  Sweden  and  the  United 
Kingdom. 

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Source: Eurostat 

Within this time frame, primary energy consumption decreased in all Member States except in 
Greece (still affected  by the economic  downturn)  despite growing GDP in  22 Member States. 
This trend demonstrates that the recovery was achieved without increasing energy demand, even 
in  the  countries  with  fast-growing  economies.  However,  it  is  also  clear  that  this  was  possibly 
due to energy efficiency improvements. 

A  more  detailed  analysis  of  different  factors  behind  the  changes  in  energy  consumption  is 
possible thanks to the decomposition analysis carried out by the JRC19 and Odyssee-Mure20. A 
decomposition helps attribute a weight to the several factors that have an impact on the energy 
consumption trends, which are differentiated across the end-use sectors and the generation and 
transformation sector. 

In  terms  of  primary  energy,  the  JRC  analysis  assessed  the  relative  contribution  of  economic 
activity effect21, transformation effect22 and energy intensity effect23 to the overall reduction of 
primary  energy  consumption  trends  over  the  2005-2015  period.  Final  energy  consumption 
trends were decomposed into activity, structural24, intensity and weather effects25. 

The  results  show  that  the  activity  effect  led  to  an  increase  of  183.1  Mtoe  in  primary  energy 
consumption.  However,  this  was  offset  by  an  almost  twofold  decrease  (-339.8  Mtoe)  due  to 
significant improvements in energy intensity (see Figure 3). On the other hand, the increase in 
overall efficiency of the transformation system in the EU-28 was small (-26.8 Mtoe). 

Looking at the latest developments in 2014-2015, primary energy consumption increased for the 
first time after 5 consequtive years of declining energy consumption. The increase of 21.4 Mtoe 
in  primary  energy  consumption  in  2014-2015  is  largely  attributed  to  a  strong  activity  effect 
(+33.6  Mtoe)  which  was  only  partially  offset  by  the  improvements  in  the  efficiency  of 
transformation (-10.8 Mtoe) and lower energy intensity (-1.4 Mtoe). 

19 JRC op. cit. 
20 http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html 
21 It accounts for change in energy consumption due to changes in economic activity (e.g. GDP, GVA). 
22 It is represented by the ratio of primary energy consumption to final energy consumption and accounts for the 
efficiency of the energy transformation system.  
23  It  is  represented  by  the  ratio  of  primary  or  final  energy  consumption  to  GDP.  It  accounts  for  changes  in  total 
energy consumption due to technology advancements, efficiency improvements, policy and other effects.  
24  It  is  represented  by  the  relative  share  of  economic  activity  of  individual  sectors  and  accounts  for  changes  in 
energy consumption due to change in the relative importance of sectors with different energy intensities.  
25  It  captures  changes  to  energy  consumption  due  to  weather  changes  and  is  applied  to  sectors  where  heating  is 
significant in the end use (e.g. residential).  

5 

 
 
 
                                                            
Figure 3: Decomposition of changes in EU-28 primary energy consumption (Mtoe) for 2005-
2015 using the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index approach (LMDI) 

+149.5 

-16.0 

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The fall in final energy consumption was mainly driven by the decreases in industry (-16% in 
2015  compared  to  2005)  and  the  residential  sector  (-11%)    and  to  lower  extent  by  a  drop  in 
energy  consumption  in  transport  (-3%).  In  contrast,  the  service  sector  increased  its  energy 
consumption (+2%). 

Figure 4: Decomposition of changes in EU-28 final energy consumption (Mtoe) for 2005-2015 
using the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index approach (LMDI) 

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The JRC analysis indicates that, as in the case of the primary energy, the drop in final energy 
consumption  for  the  2005-2015  period  was  due  to  improvements  in  final  energy  intensity  (-
169.9 Mtoe) which offset the increase in energy consumption due to the growth in the economy 

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(+115.1 Mtoe). Structural shifts towards more energy efficient sectors accounted for a drop in 
final energy consumption of -25.2 Mtoe, while warmer winters resulted in a decrease of energy 
consumption by -17.4 Mtoe. This resulted in a drop in final energy consumption from 1153 to 
1056 Mtoe26 across the EU in 2005-2015 (see Figure 4). 

In  2014-2015,  a  small  increase  of  +23  Mtoe  in  total  final  energy  consumption  was  recorded 
across  the  EU.  In  this  short  period  the  improvements  in  intensity  (-10.2  Mtoe)  and  a  small 
structural  shift  (-1.0  Mtoe)  were  not  sufficient  to  counterbalance  the  increase  due  to  the 
economic growth (activity effect: +20.9 Mtoe) and to colder weather27  (+13.2 Mtoe). 

Looking at the developments at Member State level in the 2005-2015 period, the JRC analysis 
shows  that  with  the  exception  of  Greece,  Italy  and  Portugal,  economic  activity  increased 
primary  energy  consumption.  The  transformation  effect  had  more  diversified  impact  across 
Member States, with 10 countries recording reduction in transformation efficiency, which drove 
up energy consumption (Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Spain France, Ireland, 
Latvia, the Netherlands, and Portugal). With respect to primary energy intensity most countries 
achieved  significant  improvements  and  only  in  Malta  energy  consumption  rose  due  to  higher 
energy  intensity  of  the  economy.  The  structural  shift  towards  less  energy  intensive  sectors, 
which  is  considered  for  the  commercial  sector28,  contributed  to  a  lower  final  energy 
consumption  in  all  countries  except  Austria,  Bulgaria,  the  Czech  Republic,  Lithuania,  Latvia, 
Poland and Slovakia. On the other hand, Ireland, Cyprus and the UK were the only countries to 
experience an increase in final energy consumption due to weather factors (these are considered 
by the JRC for the residential sector only). In all other countries, warmer winters contributed to 
a decline in energy consumption. 

The  Odyssee-Mure  analysis  presents  similar  trends  for  the  2005-2015  period.  It  confirms  that 
energy  savings  played  a  major  role  in  offsetting  the  increase  in  consumption  driven  by  the 
activity effect, demography and lifestyles over this period. However, the significance of various 
factors  and  their  magnitude  are  not  the  same  due  to  differences  in  the  methodology  and  data 
used  as  input.  Lower  primary  energy  consumption  was  mainly  driven  by  a  decrease  in  final 
energy  consumption  (-109  Mtoe),  but  the  role  of  efficiency  improvements  and  changes  in  the 
fuel  mix  in  power  generation  were  also  quite  significant  (-61  Mtoe).  Looking  at  final  energy 
consumption, the activity effect led to an increase of 39 Mtoe, while demography and lifestyle 
accounted  for  an  additional  26  Mtoe  and  25  Mtoe  of  final  energy  consumption  respectively. 
These  increases  were  offset  by  much  higher  energy  savings  between  2005  and  2015  (-161 
Mtoe), while structural change and weather led to a further reduction of 10 Mtoe and 18 Mtoe 
respectively. 

4.1. 

Industrial sector 

The final energy consumption of industry in the EU decreased in absolute terms from 328 Mtoe 
in  2005  to  275  Mtoe  in  2015  (-16%).  Nonetheless,  industry  increased  its  energy  consumption 
during this period in Austria (+4%), Belgium (+2%), Germany (+3%), Latvia (+13%), Hungary 
(+25%)  and  Malta  (+10%).  Compared  to  the  previous  year,  final  energy  consumption  in 
industry  rose  slightly  (by  1  Mtoe,  i.e.  0.3%)  in  2015,  with  13  Member  States  recording  a 
decline.  The  countries  with  the  highest  increases  included  Ireland  (+8%),  Hungary  (7%)  and 
France (5%). 

26 The difference between the JRC decomposition data and the official Eurostat data quoted in the report is caused 
by different data sources used for transport (Odyssee) and different date of data extraction (January 2017). 
27  Heating  degree-days  in  2015  were  2904  compared  to  2809  in  2014  and  an  average  of  3133  in  the  reference 
period 1990-2015 (source: Eurostat, JRC). 
28 The commercial sector combines industry, services and agriculture. 

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The JRC decomposition shows an overall positive activity effect that increased the final energy 
consumption  in  industry  in  the  EU  in  the  2005-2015  period  (despite  a  sharp  drop  in  energy 
demand due to low economic activity observed in 2008-2009). Nevertheless, the improvements 
in  energy  intensity  more  than  compenesated  the  activity  effect  and  decreased  substatnially 
energy  consumption  in  industry.  The  shift  to  less  energy  intensive  sectors  also  contributed  to 
this  decline,  but  played  a  smaller  role  for  the  EU  in  general.  In  contrast,  the  Odysse-Mure 
analysis  shows  that  the  activity  effect  was  negative  leading  to  a  reduction  of  energy 
consumption  in  industry  in  the  EU  by  6  Mtoe  during  the  2005-2015  period.  Energy  savings 
were  still  the  dominant  factor  behind  the  overall  decrease  in  energy  consumption  (-42  Mtoe), 
accompanied by the sructural shift that contributed to a reduction of 8 Mtoe. Only 'other' effects, 
which are mainly a result of inefficient operations in industry, were positive and increased the 
consumption by 2 Mtoe.  

In  terms  of  energy  intensity29,  almost  all  Member  States  managed  to  improve  their  industry 
performance between 2005 and 2015, leading to an overall reduction in energy intensity of 19% 
in the EU. Only Greece (+26%), Hungary (+19%), Latvia (+14%) and Cyprus (+11%) increased 
their final energy consumption per Gross Value Added (GVA) of their industrial sector. On the 
other hand, the biggest improvements were recorded  in Ireland, Romania and Bulgaria, where 
industry  energy  intensity  was  halved.  Looking  at  the  developments  compared  to  2014,  only 
France and Sweden recorded an increase in the energy intensity of industry in 2015, while all 
other Member States continued to improve. 

4.2. 

Residential sector 

The final energy consumption of the residential sector dropped by 11% from 309 Mtoe in 2005 
to 275 Mtoe in 2015. The improvements in efficiency (-67 Mtoe) significantly contributed to it 
and  were  a  result  of  greater  energy  efficiency  of  appliances  and  energy  performance 
improvements  in  the  building  stock  following  the  gradual  implementation  of  the  Energy 
Performance  of  Buildings  Directive30  and  ecodesign  minimum  standards31.  However,  warmer 
winters  also  reduced  heating  needs  within  this  period  and  partially  offset  the  positive  activity 
effect, driven by an increase in floor area for heating and gross disposable income.  

21  Member  States  reported  an  increase  in  final  energy  consumption  of  the  residential  sector 
from 2014 to 2015. 2014 was an unusually warm year which led to a lower heating demand, so 
the  increase  in  energy  consumption  for  heating  in  2015  –  which  was  a  colder  year  –  was  not 
surprising. However, the Odyssee-Mure analysis indicates that while weather32 accounted for an 
increase  of  5  Mtoe  in  energy  consumption,  the  increase  in  the  number  and  average  size  of 
dwellings and higher number of appliances contributed to an additional 4 Mtoe. This increase 
was  offset  by  energy  savings  (-8  Mtoe)  in  2015,  but  other  effects  (mainly  changes  in  the 
behaviour, e.g. switching to bigger appliances, and better comfort levels) increased final energy 
consumption by an additional 10 Mtoe. 

Residential sector intensity in terms of energy consumption per population decreased in the EU 
by some 9% in 2005-2015 (and by 1% in 2015 compared to 2014). Nonetheless, the situation 
varied  substantially  across  Member  States:  in  11  countries  performance  deteriorated  with  the 

29 Energy consumption relative to Gross Value Added (GVA). 
30 Directive 2010/31/EU 
31 For all sectors in general under the business as usual scenario with measures up to 1 January 2016, ecodesign and 
energy  labelling  measures  are  expected  to  yield  165  Mtoe  in  primary  energy  savings  in  2020  (cf.  European 
Commission (2016), Ecodesign Impact Accounting. Status Report 2016). 
32  The  Odyssee-Mure  analysis  also  estimates  the  impact  of  cooling  degree  days  which  play  an  increasingly 
important role, in particular in electricity needs over the summer in southern countries. 

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biggest  increases  recorded  in  Bulgaria  (+19%),  Lithuania  (+10%)  and  Romania  (+6%),  which 
reflected  the  catching-up  effect  in  these  countries.  In  contrast,  the  United  Kingdom  (-25%), 
Belgium and Ireland (-23%) were the top performing countries. 

4.3. 

Service sector 

The  service  sector  was  the  only  sector  with  an  increase  in  energy  consumption  from  2005  to 
2015,  albeit  a  small  one  (+3.1  Mtoe,  2%).  According  to  the  JRC  decomposition  analysis,  this 
was  largely  driven  by  an  increase  in  GVA  in  services,  resulting  in  a  rise  of  +20.4  Mtoe  in 
energy consumption. This activity effect was mostly offset by energy intensity improvements.  

The Odyssee-Mure analysis provides  a more detailed breakdown for the service sector.  While 
the positive activity effect was on a similar scale (+20 Mtoe), it was weakened by the warmer 
weather effect (-5 Mtoe), energy savings (-6 Mtoe), improvements in productivity (-3 Mtoe) and 
other  effects  (-3  Mtoe).  Compared  to  2014  energy  consumption  in  the  services  sector  rose  by 
3.6% in 2015, due to positive activity, climate and productivity effects. 

Final  energy  intensity  in  services  improved  by  10%  in  the  2005-2015  period.  The  biggest 
improvements were in Ireland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria and Sweden. Compared to 2014 the 
energy intensity increased by 2% in 2015 for the EU, which may be also related to the higher 
number of heating degree days as space heating accounts for nearly half of energy consumption 
in the service sector. 

Transport sector 

4.4. 
The EU's final energy consumption in transport33 decreased by 3% from 369 Mtoe in 2005 to 
359 Mtoe in 2015. In 2015, 15 Member States increased their energy consumption in this sector 
compared to 2005 levels34. Consumption increased siginificantly (by more than 20% since 2005) 
in Malta, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Slovenia. By contrast, it fell by 20% in Greece and 
16% in Spain. 

The EU's final energy consumption in transport rose by almost 2% from 2014 to 2015, with all 
but  four  Member  States35  reporting  an  increase.  This  magnifies  the  trend  from  the  previous 
years,  as  in  2014  an  upward  trend  was  observed  in  20  and  in  2013  in  11  Member  States. 
Countries  with  the  largest  increase  include  Bulgaria  (10%),  Hungary  (8%),  Lithuania  and 
Poland (5%). Growth in road transport activity in 2015, in both passenger transport (by 2.2% in 
pkm) and freight transport (by 2.8% in tkm), the further decline in petroleum product prices as 
well as growth in aviation transport were the main reasons for this increase. The importance of 
the  activity  effect  in  driving  up  energy  consumption  is  also  visible  in  the  Odyssee-Mure 
analysis:  this  factor36  contributed  to  an  increase  of  9  Mtoe  in  2015,  while  energy  savings 
reduced consumption by 2 Mtoe and the impact of modal shift was marginal. 

Electricity and heat generation sector 

4.5. 
The  output/input  ratio  of  thermal  power  generation37  has  little  improved  across  the  EU  since 
2005 (+1.4%). In 2015, it increased in 18 Member States compared to 2005 and in 20 Member 

33  Including  pipeline  transport,  contrary  to  the  approach  taken  in  COM(2015)  574  final  as  the  2020  energy 
efficiency targets do not exclude pipeline transport. 
34 A comparison of Member States should be undertaken with caution because final energy consumption is based 
on  the  fuels  sold  rather  than  the  fuels  used  in  the  territory  of  a  country.  Factors  other  than  energy  efficiency 
therefore come into play, e.g. the degree to which a given Member State is a ‘transit country’ for road transport or a 
hub for aviation. 
35 Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Slovenia. 
36 The activity effect records changes in passenger traffic, including air, and in traffic of goods. 
37 This indicator measures the ratio of transformation output of thermal power generation to fuel input. 

9 

 
                                                            
States compared to the previous year. The reasons for this can be manifold, including a switch 
to more efficient fuels. 

According to the Odyssee-Mure analysis, the decrease in primary energy consumption over the 
last  decade  was  in  fact  due  to  a  change  in  fuel  mix  and  in  the  power  sector  and  –  to  a  lesser 
extent  –  to  efficiency  improvements  in  generation38.  The  continued  increase  in  the  share  of 
renewable  energy  sources  replacing  thermal  power  generation  is  the  main  reason  behind  the 
positive impact of this structural change. However, the change observed in 2015 as compared to 
2014 can be attributed to an increase in the effieincy of the thermal power plants rather than an 
overall change in the power mix. 

Heat generation from combined heat and power (CHP) plants increased in 13 Member States in 
2015 compared to 2014, with the highest increases in France, Cyprus, Ireland and Greece39. For 
some  Member  States  this  might  be  a  result  of  the  colder  winter  in  2015.  However,  heat 
generation from CHP decreased by over 10% in the EU in general between 2005 and 2015. 

4.6. 

State of transposition of the EED and National Energy Efficiency Action Plans for 
2017-2020 

The  EED  is  now  fully  transposed  in  all  Member  States,  although  there  are  still  delays  in 
implementing  some  of  the  measures  or  the  measures  are  subject  to  checks  to  ensure  their 
conformity.  The  Commission  therefore  closed  all  the infringement  proceedings  for missing  or 
partial notification. 

The  Commission  is  now  monitoring  the  EED  implementation.  In  2017,  it started  the  dialogue 
with  the  Member  States  to  ensure  that  all  the  obligations  and  requirements  of  the  EED  are 
correctly  reflected  in  the  national  legislation  and  policy.  It  is  also  checking  that  the  Member 
States  deliver  on  their  reporting  obligations  as  set  out  in  the  Directive.  By  30  April  2017  the 
Member States had to notify to the Commission their Annual Report, the new NEEAPs and the 
updated  long-term  building  renovation  strategy.  As  of  31  October  2017,  10  Member  States 
failed to submit at least one of these reports40. 

Under  Article  7,  Member  States  have  reported  their  savings  for  2015  which  across  the  EU 
amounted  to  28.5  Mtoe  in  cumulative  terms.  This  is  15%  more  overall  than  the  estimated 
amount  of  savings  for  2015,  assuming  a  linear  delivery  of  the  savings  requirements  to  be 
achieved by the end of 2020. 

Energy Efficiency Obligation Schemes (EEOS) have been introduced in 15 Member States and 
are responsible for the highest share of energy savings (35%). While the majority of the policy 
measures  target  the  buildings  sector,  other  end-use  sectors  (e.g.  transport,  industry)  are  also 
targeted. 

At Member State level progress towards the estimated savings for 2015 differs significantly (see 
Table 3):  

• 

15  Member  States  achieved  more  savings  than  the  annual  amount  needed  (Austria, 
Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, 
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom); 

38 Energy consumption of the power sector decreased from 378 Mtoe in 2005 to 317 Mtoe in 2015 and change in 
the power mix accounted for a reduction of 54 Mtoe.  
39  CHP  data  reported  under  Article  24(6)  EED  to  Eurostat:  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data.  Due  to 
some data gaps it is not possible to analyse the developments in all Member States. 
40  The  reports  notified  by  Member  States  have  been  published  at  https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-
efficiency/energy-efficiency-directive/national-energy-efficiency-action-plans. 

10 

 
                                                            
• 

• 

5 Member States (Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, and Spain) came close to achieving 
the amount needed; 

8 Member States achieved much less than the amount needed (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, 
the Czech Republic, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg and Portugal). 

While overall the EU as a whole is on track to achieve the required cumulative energy savings 
by  2020,  greater  effort  is  needed  in  the  coming  years  from  those  Member  States  that  have 
reported savings below the amount needed for 2015. 

5. 

CONCLUSION 

The  latest  data  show  that  weather  factors  and  economic  growth  might  have  reversed  the 
downward  trend  in  the  energy  consumption.  Despite  substantial  reductions  in  the  past  that 
moved energy consumption closer to the 2020 targets the increases in 2015 and possibly also in 
2016 indicate that reaching the targets may require additional efforts. While the 2015 and 2016 
winters were colder than in 2014, which increased the demand for space heating, they were still 
milder than the climatic average. Economic growth still has a positive impact on the demand for 
energy and while the energy efficiency efforts largely offset the activity effect, more efforts may 
be needed to prevent further increases in energy consumption. 

What  is  worth  noting,  economic  growth  was  not  necessarily  accompanied  by  higher  energy 
demand, and various countries with higher GDP growth between 2005-2015 managed to keep 
their  energy  consumption  in  check.  They  performed  even  better  in  terms  of  energy  efficiency 
than countries with lower GDP growth. These include Slovakia, Malta, Luxembourg, Romania, 
Lithuania (Member States with over 20% GDP growth and primary energy consumption down 
by more than 10% in 2005-2015). 

These  findings  are  supported  by  successive  studies  that  demonstrate  that  it  is  economically 
advantageous  to  implement  energy  efficiency  measures.  The  Macroeconomic  and  Other 
Benefits of Energy Efficiency41 study shows that higher levels of efficiency are associated with 
macroeconomic impacts which are positive both for GDP and employment. In addition, energy 
efficiency  helps  reduce  imports  of  fossil  fuels  which  boosts  the  EU's  trade  balance,  and  also 
improves the energy security of Member States that are exposed to a highly concentrated supply 
source  for  gas.  The  binding  30%  energy  efficiency  target  proposed  by  the  Commission  will 
improve energy security by reducing fossil fuel imports by 12% in 2030 which corresponds to 
import savings of EUR 70 billion.  

The  two  different  decomposition  methodologies  analysed  in  this  report  confirm  that  energy 
efficiency  was  a  key  driver  of  the  improvements  in  energy  intensities  across  sectors.  These 
largely neutralised or even exceeded the surge in energy demand driven by economic activity, 
higher  heating  and  cooling  comfort  standards,  and  changes  in  behaviour  and  lifestyle.  The 
competitiveness of the EU's industry and services has improved thanks to a decrease in energy 
intensity in almost all EU countries. The  value that energy efficiency can generate in industry 
goes in fact beyond reduced energy bills and it encompasses broader long-term benefits42.  

In  order  to  step  up  efforts,  it  is  essential  that  the  policies  and  measures  proposed  in  the  2017 
NEAPs are implemented effectively. Article 7 is a key energy saving measure of the EED and 
contributes  to  the  EU  energy  efficiency  target.  The  savings  reported  for  2015  (28.5  Mtoe  in 
cumulative  terms)  indicate  good  progress  in  the  implementation  of  Article  7  across  the  EU. 

41 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/final_report_v4_final.pdf 
42 These include improvements in worker comfort, product quality, overall flexibility and productivity, as well as 
reductions in maintenance cost, risk, production time and waste. (cf. IEA (2017), Energy Efficiency 2017).  

11 

 
                                                            
However,  this  progress  varies  at  national  level  –  some  countries  have  put  in  place  ambitious 
energy  efficiency  measures  that  deliver  significant  savings  over  the  first  few  years  of  the 
obligation period,  while a number of Member States will need to  increase their  efforts if they 
want to meet their savings requirements due by the end of 2020. 

EU  and  national  policies  should  tap  into  the  large  cost-effective  potential  for  energy  savings 
represented by the building stock and speed up digitalisation in the energy sector. The building 
renovation  market  is  estimated  to  be  worth  EUR  80-120  billion  in  2030.  To  further  unlock 
private financing for energy efficiency and renewables, the Smart Finance for Smart Buildings43 
(SFSB)  initiative  proposes  specific  measures  to  (i)  use  public  funds  more  effectively,  (ii) 
aggregate  projects  and  support  their  development,  and  (iii)  change  the  risk  perception  of 
financiers and investors.  

Energy efficiency measures for buildings could also play an important role in reducing energy 
poverty. It has been estimated that potentially 1.5-8 million households could be removed from 
energy poverty depending on the specific measures adopted by Member States. 

Furthermore,  additional  improvements  in  the  transport  sector  are  needed  in  most  Member 
States.  Against  this  background  the revision of the light  duty vehicles CO2 legislation beyond 
2020,  together  with  an  improved  monitoring  system,  are  of  key  importance,  as  reducing  CO2 
emissions  and  energy  consumption  in  transport is  closely  linked  to  fuel  efficiency. Additional 
measures  to  promote  more  efficient  use  of  transport,  such  as  the  revision  of  the  Combined 
Transport  Directive,  a  switch to  collective transport  modes,  and  a  transition  to  zero-  and  low-
emission vehicles, driven in particular by electro-mobility, will also be needed. 

In addition, the proposed Regulation for the Governance of the Energy Union44 should improve 
the  coordination  of  efforts  on  energy  efficiency  and  place  them  in  the  wider  context  of  other 
energy  policy  goals.  It  will  help  the  Commission  and  Member  States  to  set  their  contribution 
and take the right corrective measures when needed.  

The Commission will continue to closely monitor the progress of Member States towards their 
indicative national energy efficiency targets for 2020 and EED implementation.  

The Commission also invites the European Parliament and the Council to express their views on 
this assessment.  

43 COM(2016) 860 final 
44 COM(2016) 759 final 

12 

 
 
 
                                                            
Table 1: Overview indicators  

Trend to reach the 2020 
target 

Short-term trend 

Whole 
economy 

Industry 

Residential 

MS 

PEC 2005-
2015 trend 
compared 
to PEC 
2005-2020 
trend to 
reach the 
2020 
target 

FEC 2005-
2015 trend 
compared 
to FEC 
2005-2020 
trend to 
reach the 
2020 
target 

Change of 
PEC 2015 
compared 
to PEC 
2014 [%] 

Change 
of FEC 
2015 
compare
d to FEC 
2014 [%] 

2005-2015 
average 
annual 
change of 
PEC energy 
intensity [%] 

2005-2015 
average 
change of 
FEC energy 
intensity in 
industry 
[%]  

2005-2015 
average 
annual 
change of 
FEC in 
residential 
per capita 
with climatic 
corrections 
[%] 

2005-2014 
average 
annual change 
of FEC in 
residential per 
m2 with 
climatic 
corrections [%] 

* Symbol "+" is used if Member States decreased their primary and final energy consumption between 2005 to 
2015 at a rate which is higher than the rate of decrease which would be needed in the period 2005 to 2020 to meet 
the 2020 primary and final energy consumption targets. Symbol "-" was used for the other cases. FEC – final 
energy consumption, PEC – primary energy consumption. 

13 

EU28++1.5%2.1%-2.0%-2.0%-0.4%-2.3%BE+-1.2%4.6%-2.2%-1.1%-2.3%-3.1%BG--3.9%5.5%-2.9%-5.7%2.4%-2.6%CZ++1.6%2.4%-2.5%-4.9%1.2%-1.0%DK++-0.2%3.2%-2.1%-2.3%-0.2%-2.1%DE--0.6%1.6%-2.1%-1.3%-0.6%-2.3%EE-+-6.3%-1.8%0.1%-4.6%1.6%-0.5%IE++4.6%4.2%-3.7%-4.9%-3.1%-4.3%EL++0.4%6.3%-0.2%2.9%-1.1%-3.8%ES++4.0%1.6%-1.8%-2.3%1.9%-1.2%FR--2.0%2.7%-1.7%-1.1%-0.6%-1.7%HR++4.4%5.5%-1.2%-2.0%0.6%-3.1%IT++4.0%2.7%-1.4%-2.7%0.9%-0.7%CY++2.0%2.7%-1.2%1.8%0.7%-4.5%LV++-2.1%-2.5%-1.8%2.1%-0.2%-3.6%LT+-1.9%-0.5%-5.1%-2.6%2.0%-1.2%LU++-1.0%-0.3%-4.0%-1.0%-1.6%-1.5%HU+-5.9%6.9%-1.6%2.1%1.1%-4.6%MT+--14.9%5.1%-5.3%na7.6%-2.7%NL-+3.8%2.5%-1.6%-1.6%-1.3%-2.6%AT+-2.9%2.3%-1.4%-0.3%0.8%-1.5%PL++0.9%1.1%-3.4%-5.1%1.2%-1.3%PT++4.9%1.7%-1.2%-0.9%0.7%-4.6%RO++2.1%0.8%-4.1%-6.3%1.6%-1.7%SI++-0.9%2.2%-1.8%-3.3%0.9%-1.0%SK+-0.8%0.9%-4.7%-5.4%-0.9%-1.9%FI++-4.8%-1.3%-0.7%0.0%-0.1%-1.1%SE+--5.5%1.8%-2.8%-1.5%-0.4%-1.3%UK++0.0%1.3%-3.0%-2.3%-2.9%-3.8%Source and extraction dateEurostat06/2017Eurostat06/2017Eurostat06/2017Eurostat06/2017Eurostat06/2017Eurostat09/2017Eurostat06/2017Odyssee07/2017 
 
Table 2: Overview indicators  

Services 

Transport 

Generation 

MS 

2005-2015 
average change 
of FEC energy 
intensity in the 
service sector 
[%] 

2005-2015 
average annual 
change of total 
FEC in the 
transport sector 
in % 

2015 vs. 2005 
change of 
share of trains, 
buses and 
coaches for 
passenger 
transport [%] 

2015 vs. 2005 
change of share 
of railway and 
inland 
waterways for 
freight transport 
[%] 

2005-2015 
average annual 
change of heat 
generation from 
CHP [%] 

2015-2005 
average annual 
change of ratio 
Transformation 
output/Fuel 
input of thermal 
power 
generation [%] 

14 

EU28-0.9%-0.3%0.2%-0.4%-1.0%0.0%BE0.3%0.5%-1.0%0.8%6.8%1.6%BG-1.0%1.8%-11.6%10.3%0.6%0.7%CZ-2.6%0.7%1.4%-5.0%-0.8%0.3%DK-1.7%-0.7%-1.7%0.1%-1.7%-0.1%DE-0.5%0.1%0.0%-1.6%-1.0%0.3%EE0.9%0.3%-1.2%-27.6%2.6%-0.1%IE-4.7%-0.7%1.7%-0.9%0.0%0.9%EL1.3%-1.9%-3.1%-1.1%1.3%1.0%ES0.4%-1.6%0.6%0.7%0.0%-1.1%FR-0.3%0.0%2.2%0.2%-6.0%-0.5%HR0.0%1.0%-2.1%5.2%-0.8%0.7%IT0.4%-1.2%0.4%3.4%1.2%0.4%CY1.5%-1.1%-2.1%0.0%0.0%1.2%LV-1.5%1.0%-6.1%-4.4%3.1%3.6%LT-2.1%2.9%0.5%-8.3%-4.1%3.0%LU-2.0%-1.3%2.6%-13.8%-2.6%0.1%HU-5.1%0.3%-4.2%1.4%-6.6%-1.1%MTna5.8%-1.9%0.0%0.0%4.4%NL-2.0%-0.6%2.0%2.5%-0.7%0.5%AT-3.0%0.0%1.6%-3.8%2.8%-0.3%PL-1.6%3.4%-9.1%-11.1%-1.5%0.1%PT-1.6%-0.8%-0.1%4.9%4.6%-0.2%RO-0.9%2.8%-4.4%18.5%-4.3%-0.4%SI-1.0%2.3%-0.5%4.2%0.2%0.8%SK-4.8%-0.4%-5.2%-9.3%0.1%0.5%FI-0.1%0.3%-0.2%2.1%-0.7%-0.3%SE-2.8%0.1%2.4%-3.0%2.2%0.9%UK-1.5%-0.7%2.3%0.3%0.0%-0.2%Source and extraction dateEurostat06/2017Eurostat06/2017DG MOVE Pocketbook 2017DG MOVE Pocketbook 2017Eurostat05/2017Eurostat05/2017 
 
 
 
 
Table 3: Overview of reported energy savings for 2015 under Article 7 (ktoe)  

MS 

Savings  
2014 

Cumulative 
savings  
2014-2015 

Cumulative 
savings 
requirements by 
2020  

Progress 
towards total 
cumulative 
savings 
requirement by 
2020    

Estimated level 
of cumulative 
savings in 2015  
on the basis of  
linear delivery 

Reported 
savings for 
2015 
compared the 
estimated 
level  

BE 

BG 

CZ 

DK 

DE 

EE 

IE 

GR 

ES 

FR 

HR 

IT 

CY 

LV 

LT 

LU 

HU 

MT 

NL 

AT 

PL 

PT 

RO 

SI 

SK 

FI 

SE 

UK 

330 

29 

16 

204 

2548 

41 

71 

74 

556 

1571 

2.5 

1298 

2.2 

11 

45 

0 

75 

4 

666 

714 

218 

46 

364 

18 

72 

561 

252 

1264 

875 

79 

88 

443 

5883 

100 

279 

208 

1634 

3804 

45 

2697 

6.5 

30 

98 

9 

349 

11 

1796 

1339 

1550 

111 

701 

105 

257 

1140 

1516 

3388 

6911 

1942 

4882 

3841 

41989 

610 

2164 

3333 

15979 

31384 

1296 

25502 

242 

851 

1004 

515 

3680 

67 

11512 

5200 

14818 

2532 

5817 

945 

2284 

4213 

9114 

27859 

13% 

4% 

2% 

12% 

14% 

16% 

13% 

6% 

10% 

12% 

2% 

11% 

3% 

4% 

10% 

2% 

9% 

16% 

16% 

26% 

10% 

4% 

12% 

11% 

11% 

27% 

17% 

12% 

740 

208 

523 

412 

4499 

65 

232 

357 

1712 

3363 

139 

2732 

26 

91 

108 

55 

394 

7.2 

1233 

557 

1588 

271 

623 

101 

245 

451 

977 

2985 

118% 

38% 

17% 

108% 

131% 

153% 

120% 

58% 

95% 

113% 

19% 

99% 

25% 

33% 

91% 

16% 

89% 

149% 

146% 

240% 

98% 

41% 

113% 

103% 

105% 

253% 

155% 

114% 

11055 

Total 
115% 
Source: information reported by Member States and complemented by the Commission's calculations 
and approximations where necessary.  

230486 

28522 

24695 

12% 

15