JRC MARS bulletin : crop monitoring in Europe. Vol. 25 No 10, October 2017.
Date: 2017-11-23
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, climatology, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

1

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10

Period covered: 1 September-15 October 
Issued: 23 October 2017

JRC MARS Bulletin
Crop monitoring in Europe
October 2017 
Wet conditions delay winter sowing
Continued dry conditions in Mediterranean regions   

Major parts of central and western Europe benefited from favourable end-of-season conditions to advance the harvesting 
of summer crops and sowing of winter crops. However, in Mediterranean regions, low precipitation levels continued, while 
northern countries experienced excessive precipitation.

In large parts of northern Europe, the sowing of win-
ter crops, already delayed by the late harvesting, was 
further hampered by excessively wet conditions. In the 
Baltic countries and Finland, excessive rain also com-
promised the harvesting of spring crops.
In contrast, the drought continues in the Iberian pen-
insula, and rain is needed in the coming weeks to raise 
soil moisture levels, to allow seedbed preparation and 

to create favourable conditions for the germination and 
emergence of newly sown crops. Winter cereal sowing 
is already delayed in Morocco and Algeria, where rain-
fall  in  September  and  October  was  also  very  low.  A 
significant  rain  deficit  also  exists  in  southern  France, 
western Italy and Greece, where sowing activities usu-
ally start in November.

Yield (t/ha)

Crop

Avg 5yrs

September
Bulletin

MARS 2017 
forecasts

% Diff
17/5yrs

% Diff
September

TOTAL CEREALS

Total Wheat

soft wheat

durum wheat

Total Barley

spring barley

winter barley

Grain maize

Rye

Triticale

Rape and turnip rape

Potato

Sugar beet

Sunflower

Issued: 20 october 2017

5.30

5.60

5.84

3.33

4.83

4.22

5.68

6.89

3.89

4.20

3.25

32.6

72.2

1.94

5.30

5.62

5.86

3.44

4.74

3.95

5.73

6.99

3.83

4.19

3.25

33.4

76.9

2.11

5.33

5.70

5.94

3.51

4.73

3.94

5.76

6.91

3.84

4.18

3.25

33.7

76.7

2.08

+ 0.6

+ 1.7

+ 1.8

+ 5.2

- 2.1

- 6.6

+ 1.4

+ 0.2

- 1.3

- 0.5

- 0.2

+ 3.3

+ 6.3

+ 7.5

+ 0.6

+ 1.4

+ 1.4

+ 2.0

+ 0.0

- 0.3

+ 0.5

- 1.1

+ 0.3

- 0.2

+ 0.0

+ 0.8

- 0.2

- 1.4

1
Agro-meteorological 
overview

2
Country analysis 
including sowing 
conditions

3
Crop yield forecasts

4
Pasture monitoring

5
Atlas

Joint
Research
Centre

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 2

1.  Agro-meteorological overview

1.1.  Areas of concern

The drought in the Iberian peninsula is still ongoing. 
Rain is needed in the coming weeks to raise soil mois-
ture levels, to allow seedbed preparation and to create 
favourable  conditions  for  the  germination  and  emer-
gence of newly sown crops. A significant rain deficit also 
exists in southern France, western Italy and Greece, 
where sowing activities usually start in November. Rain-
fall  in  September  and  October  was  also  very  low  in 
Morocco  and  Algeria,  where  winter  cereal  sowing  is 
delayed.
In  the  United  Kingdom,  Ireland,  the  Netherlands, 
Denmark  and  Sweden,  the  sowing  of  winter  crops, 
already delayed in several regions by the late harvest, 
was further suspended because of the excessively wet 
conditions. In the Baltic countries and Finland, exces-
sive  rains  compromised  and  delayed  the  harvest  of 
spring  crops  and  hampered  the  sowing  of  new  winter 
crops, which only started in October. Emergence of late-
sown crops could occur under unfavourable conditions 
if there are significant temperature drops in the coming 
days, as forecast.
The dry conditions in eastern Ukraine, southern Russia 
and western Turkey have only marginal consequences 
for agricultural activities.

In  Mediterranean  regions,  low  precipitation  continued, 
while northern countries experienced excessive precipi-
tation, as shown in the areas-of-concern maps.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 3

1.2.  Meteorological review (1 September-15 October)

Warmer-than-usual weather conditions prevailed 
in the Iberian peninsula, eastern Bulgaria and Roma-
nia,  the  Baltic  countries  and  a  considerable  part  of 
Scandinavia,  as  well  as  in  Turkey,  Ukraine,  southern 
and  western  Russia,  Belarus,  Morocco  and  western 
Algeria. Mean temperature anomalies in these regions 
remained mostly between 0.5 °C and 4 °C. In the east-
ern  half  of  Europe  (except  the  most  northern  areas), 
the  second  dekad  of  September  was  much  warmer 
than usual (by up to 9 °C). In several regions of south-
ern  Russia  and  Turkey,  this  was  the  hottest  second 
dekad  of  September  in  our  records  (i.e.  since  1975), 
with  maximum  temperatures  reaching  32-36 °C  on 
the hottest days. For the review period as a whole, the 
number of hot days (Tmax > 30 °C) was six to fifteen 
days  more  than  the  seasonal  average  in  the  wider 
Black Sea region. This number was also exceptionally 
high  in  Portugal,  south-western  Spain  and  Morocco, 
where it exceeded the seasonal average by twelve to 
thirty days.
Colder-than-usual  weather  conditions  (with  rel-
atively  moderate  negative  thermal  anomalies  of 
between - 2 °C and- 0.5 °C for the review period as a 
whole) prevailed in southern France, the Alpine region, 
northern  and  central  Italy,  southern  Germany,  along 
the  north-western  coastline  of  the  Balkan  peninsula 
and  large  parts  of  Algeria,  Libya  and  north-eastern 
Russia.  Considering  arable  land  regions  only,  frost 
events  occurred  in  Scotland,  Scandinavia,  Estonia, 
eastern  Slovakia,  the  northern  half  of  Romania  and 
eastern Poland, as well as in Belarus, Ukraine, eastern 

Turkey and large parts of Russia. More than five days 
with  frost  events  were  recorded  in  northern  Europe 
and in the eastern part of European Russia. Minimum 
temperatures during the coldest days in these regions 
mostly ranged between - 1 °C and - 6 °C.
Drier-than-usual weather conditions, with cumu-
lative  precipitation  between  0 %  and  50 %  of  the 
long-term average, occurred in the Iberian peninsula, 
south-eastern  France,  north-western  Italy,  Greece, 
Turkey, eastern Ukraine, southern Russia and most of 
Morocco and Algeria. The driest conditions (< 10 mm of 
precipitation) occurred in Portugal, western and south-
ern  Spain,  the  regions  surrounding  the  Aegean  Sea, 
southern Turkey and the western half of the Maghreb 
region.
Wetter-than-usual conditions (with rainfall > 50 % 
above the seasonal average) prevailed along the west-
ern coastline of Great Britain and in southern Scandi-
navia, the Netherlands and northern Germany, as well 
as in a south–north belt that extended from the Adri-
atic Sea across Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, the Czech 
Republic, Slovakia, Poland and the Baltic countries to 
some areas in Finland and north-western Russia. The 
wettest  areas  were  in  Poland,  where  rainfall  totals 
were up to 2.5 times higher than usual.
Rainfall totals > 150 mm were recorded in Ireland, 
the western United Kingdom, the Netherlands, south-
ern Scandinavia, the Alpine region, the north-western 
Balkan region, Poland and the Baltic countries, as well 
as  in  some  parts  of  France,  Italy,  Germany,  western 
Ukraine, Belarus and northern Russia.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 4

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 5

2. Country analysis

2.1.  Sowing conditions

Winter cereals (soft wheat, winter barley, rye)

Wet conditions delay sowing activities in large parts of Europe

In France, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slove-
nia and Croatia, the sowing campaign started with a 
slight delay due to wet conditions. In the United King-
dom, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, coastal areas of the 
Netherlands  and  northern  Germany,  wet  conditions 
delayed  the  sowing  of  winter  cereals  more  substan-
tially.  In  the  rest  of  Germany,  and  in  Poland,  Belarus 
and Slovakia, sowing has made good progress and is 
nearly complete. In the Baltic countries, sowing activ-
ities  started  in  August  but  have  progressed  slowly, 
with  frequent  interruptions  due  to  persistent  rainfall 
in September and October. In Bulgaria, the sowing of 
winter  cereals has  started,  but overly wet  soil  condi-
tions are hampering field accessibility. In Hungary and 
Romania, sowing is progressing without particular con-
straints. In general, despite the problems mentioned, 
sowing has advanced in all these countries and might 
be completed on time. In the Baltic countries, however, 
it  might  be  difficult  to  complete  the  campaign  in  the 
coming weeks if wet conditions continue and tempera-
tures decrease, impeding emergence.

In Italy, sowing is progressing well, with optimal tem-
peratures,  but  dry  conditions  in  the  north  are  un- 
favourable for emergence.
In Ukraine, the dry conditions in September hampered 
sowing activities in the most important regions of win-
ter cereal production (eastern Ukraine). Rainfall since 
the beginning of October has created favourable soil 
moisture  conditions  for  sowing  and  for  the  germina-
tion and emergence of winter cereals.
In  Spain  and  Portugal,  sowing  usually  starts  by  mid 
October, and the current dry conditions may delay the 
sowing of winter crops if rainfall continues to be scarce 
in the coming weeks. In Greece, sowing activities usu-
ally  start  in  November.  Soil  moisture  levels  are  cur-
rently below average, and significant rain is needed to 
favour seedbed preparation.
For durum wheat, it is still early for sowing in all the 
EU  producing  countries.  The  first  sowing  operations 
will start during the last week of October.

Winter rapeseed

Very wet conditions around sowing in most of Europe

The sowing of winter rapeseed in France, the EU’s larg-
est  or  second-largest  producer,  occurred  earlier  than 
usual  and  without  encountering  major  difficulties.  In 
almost  all  other  significant  producing  countries,  how-
ever, rapeseed sowing was hampered. In many of these 
regions,  the  initial  delays  occurred  because  of  this 
year’s late harvest of winter and spring cereals, caused 
by  wet  conditions  in  July  and  August.  In  addition,  the 
conditions in September were marked by abundant rain-
fall.  Exceptionally  wet  conditions  were  recorded  along 
the Dutch, German and Danish North Sea coasts, and 
in  southern  Germany,  the  Czech  Republic,  Poland  and 
the Baltic countries. In those regions, rainfall during the 
usual sowing period often exceeded the long-term aver-

age by 50 mm or more, and was evenly distributed, with 
only  a  few  dry  days.  The  normal  sowing  period  in  the 
United Kingdom was also wetter than usual. In eastern 
Germany and Slovakia, rainfall was less abundant but 
came in frequent events. Slightly drier conditions pre-
vailed in Hungary, offering longer suitable dry windows. 
The only important rapeseed area in the EU that faced 
drier-than-usual  conditions  was  eastern  Romania,  but 
this did not have a significant impact on sowing. Con-
ditions for emergence have generally been favourable. 
The  young  stands  in  France  and  south-western  Ger-
many are reported to be ‘in a good state’. Some areas 
in northern Germany and Poland were not sown in time 
and will have to be used for other crops.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 6

2.2. European Union

France

A relatively good year despite challenging conditions

surplus  observed  in  the  north-east  caused  a  slight 
delay to the start of winter wheat and barley sowing 
in  Champagne-Ardennes  and  Bourgogne.  Conditions 
have been favourable for emergence because of warm 
weather at the end of September and in mid October.

the problems mentioned, the yield forecast for sugar 
beet remains exceptionally high, and the forecasts for 
potato and maize are also above the 5-year average.

Temperatures  presented  strong  fluctuations  around 
seasonal  values,  with  two  warmer-than-usual  peri-
ods  at  the  end  of  September  and  in  mid  October. 
Central-eastern  and  south-eastern  regions  received 
below-average  rainfall.  The  rain  deficit  was  particu-
larly pronounced in Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte 
d’Azur  and  Languedoc-Roussillon.  In  contrast,  Picar-
die, Champagne-Ardennes, Île de France and Lorraine 
received  above-average  rainfall.  Summer  crop  yield 
forecasts  remain  unchanged,  above  the  5-year  aver-
age,  but  only  modestly,  because  of  the  water  deficit 
in early spring, the heatwave in June and subsequent 
irrigation  restrictions  observed  this  summer.  Early 
potato  and  late  sunflower  harvests  were  delayed  by 
the rainfall in mid September, with limited impact. The 
harvest  of  sugar  beet  is  making  good  progress.  The 
grain-maize harvest started at the end of September. 
Winter rapeseed sowing was completed under favour-
able  conditions  (mainly  in  August).  However,  the  rain 

Germany

Difficult sowing and harvesting conditions

The  temperature  regime  was  around  average  in  the 
northern half of the country and 1-2 °C below average 
in the southern part. Rainfall was abundant in Nieder-
sachsen,  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  and,  in  particular 
(>  90  %  above  average),  Schleswig-Holstein.  Rainfall 
in  the  rest  of  the  country  was  in  line  with  the  long-
term average, but with an exceptionally high frequency 
until 10 or 11 October. This was particularly the case 
in  northern  regions,  and  to  a  lesser  extent  in  south-
ern  regions  (Niedersachsen,  Schleswig-Holstein  and 
Nordrhein-Westfalen), while central regions had more 
dry  days.  The  wet  conditions  hampered  the  sowing 
of  winter  cereals  and  rapeseed  and  the  harvesting 
of the remaining field crops, such as potatoes, maize 
and  sugar  beet,  posing  serious  problems  to  harvest-
ing machinery and logistics. Locally, maize fields were 
reported  to  have  been  hit  heavily  by  storms.  Despite 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 7

the  drying  down  of  maize  kernels.  Our  yield  forecast 
remains slightly below the 5-year average.

then. In the important cropland regions of south-eastern 
England, the October conditions were favourable for the 
sowing of winter cereals.

Poland

Wet start to grain-maize harvesting campaign

The wet conditions observed almost continuously since 
the beginning of the grain-maize cropping season con-
tinued in September and October. With the exception 
of the last week of September, it rained almost every 
day. Cumulative rainfall during the review period was 
up to three times higher than the long-term average. 
Temperatures  generally  oscillated  around  the  long-
term  average.  The  generally  wet  soil  conditions  cre-
ated  problems  for  the  harvesting  of  sugar  beet  and 
potatoes. In the case of sugar beet, these conditions 
will keep the final yield well below last year’s level (but 
still above the 5-year average). The wet conditions may 
have  caused  the  rotting  of  potatoes  in  some  areas, 
and our negative forecast is maintained. Grain-maize 
harvesting  operations  have  just  started.  The  wetter-
than-usual  conditions  are  hampering  operations  and 

United Kingdom and Ireland

Continued wet conditions

In both countries, temperatures remained close to average, 
except for a cold snap during the second dekad of Sep-
tember.  In  the  United  Kingdom  only,  warmer-than-usual 
temperatures occurred during the last week of September.
Rainfall was generally above average, except in Wales and 
southern England, which showed close-to-average values. 
In  south-eastern  England,  precipitation  has  been  below 
average since the beginning of October.
Cereal  harvesting  was  completed  in  early  October.  The 
harvesting of sugar beet and potatoes is under way and 
production is expected to be good. The harvesting of green 
maize has also started. The yield forecast for sugar beet 
and potato remains practically unaltered compared with 
the previous bulletin.
The  autumn  sowing  campaign  has  started,  with  limited 
planting opportunities due to the late harvesting of win-
ter and spring cereals, and continued wet conditions since 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 8

Spain and Portugal

Continued dry conditions

Weather conditions continued to be exceptionally dry 
across the Iberian peninsula, with no significant rain-
fall registered in September and the first half of Octo-
ber.  Temperatures  during  this  period  were  substan-
tially higher than usual, especially in the southern half 
of  the  peninsula  (Alentejo,  Centro,  Extremadura  and 
Andalucía).  These  weather  conditions  have  favoured 
the rapid progress of grain-maize harvesting, which is 
practically complete across the peninsula. Yield expec-
tations for maize are slightly below the 5-year average, 
as irrigation was restricted at the end of the growing 
season  in  the  north-west.  The  current  dry  conditions 
may  delay  the  sowing  of  winter  crops,  particularly  in 
Castilla y León, where it usually starts by mid October 

Italy

Grain-maize harvesting campaign almost complete, with below-average yield outlook

The second and third dekads of September were colder 
than  usual,  with  maximum  temperature  anomalies 
around  -  2 °C  (reaching  -  4 °C  in  some  central  and 
northern regions) compared with the long-term aver-
age. Rainfall during the first two dekads of September 
was  above  average,  except  in  the  western  provinces 
of Piemonte, which were drier than usual. Since then, 
precipitation has been lower than usual. Winter wheat 
sowing has started. The grain-maize harvesting cam-
paign  has  almost  been  completed;  only  a  few  late-
sown fields remain to be harvested. The yield forecast 
for grain maize remains below the 5-year average due 
to the cold spell at the beginning of the season and the 
dry  and  hot  conditions  during  the  rest  of  the  growth 
cycle, which stressed the crop all over the country.

Hungary

Hampered harvest in September

Near-normal thermal conditions prevailed in Hungary 
during  the  review  period  (1  September-15  October). 
Cumulative  rainfall  reached  50-150 mm  in  the  first 
two  dekads  of  September,  exceeding  the  long-term 
average by 50-300 %. Abundant precipitation caused 
a delay in the harvesting of summer crops and tem-
porarily  suspended  the  sowing  campaign  for  winter 
crops.  However,  it  favoured  the  sprouting  and  emer-
gence  of  rapeseed  that  had  already  been  sown,  and 
it  improved  the  topsoil  moisture  levels,  thus  provid-
ing  better  conditions  for  seedbed  preparation.  In  the 
third dekad of September, precipitation decreased, and 
the  dry  weather  conditions  that  have  prevailed  since 
then have allowed harvesting and sowing activities to 
speed up.
Our yield forecast for sunflower and grain maize has 
been maintained, while the forecast for potatoes and 

sugar  beet  has  been  slightly  revised  upwards,  taking 
into account the wet weather conditions of early Sep-
tember.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 Romania

Abundant rains caused delays in harvesting and sowing

9

remains well above the 5-year average and last year’s 
level. The forecasts for potatoes and sugar beet have 
been revised upwards.

average. The yield outlook for sunflowers, which are more 
drought tolerant, has been maintained.

During the first two dekads of September, daily mean 
temperatures  exceeded  the  long-term  average  by 
2-4 °C, and the south-eastern regions experienced an 
exceptionally high number (five to fifteen) of hot days 
(Tmax > 30 °C). Around 20 September, a sharp drop in 
temperature  occurred.  Since  then,  temperatures  have 
mostly fluctuated at 1-2 °C below the average. Precipi-
tation in September was abundant in western and cen-
tral Romania, and hampered the sowing of winter rape-
seed and the harvesting of sunflower and maize. The 
eastern part remained dry and free of such problems. 
In October, the situation was reversed. Field operations 
in the western areas were able to catch up, but abun-
dant  rain  in  the  eastern  and  south-eastern  regions 
resulted in delays to the harvesting of grain maize and 
the early phase of winter cereal sowing. Our yield fore-
cast for grain maize has been revised downwards but 

Bulgaria

Above-average yield outlook for summer crops

Until 20 September, daily maximum temperatures mostly 
approached or exceeded 30 °C, and the average thermal 
anomaly  reached  2-5 °C  during  this  period.  Since  then, 
near-  or  below-average  thermal  conditions  have  pre-
vailed. The temperature drop around 20 September also 
marked the transition to a more frequent and abundant 
rainfall pattern, which resulted in precipitation totals of 
50-120 mm for the review period as a whole. Although 
alternating  with  dry  periods  lasting  several  days,  the 
prevailing wet weather conditions (in several cases with 
excessive rainfall events) after the second dekad of Sep-
tember hampered the harvesting of summer crops, and 
also  hampered  the  sowing  of  winter  cereals.  The  yield 
forecast for grain maize has been further revised slightly 
downwards,  taking  account  of  prevailing  hot  and  dry 
conditions during summer, but remains above the 5-year 

Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Summer crop yield outlook below last year’s

Air temperatures were close to the long-term average dur-
ing  the  review  period.  Rainfall  was  well  above  seasonal 
levels in the eastern half of the Czech Republic, most of 
Slovakia and north-eastern Austria, where cumulative rain-
fall  between  100  mm  and  150  mm  was  recorded.  The 
rainfall eased or eliminated the soil moisture deficit that 
had prevailed since early spring in many of these regions. 
The  summer  crop  harvesting  campaign,  which  started  in 
the second half of September, was interrupted by frequent 
rainfall events during the second dekad of September and 
the beginning of October. The yield forecasts for summer 
crops generally remain well below last year’s levels because 
of frequent heatwaves and drought in the southern part of 
the Czech Republic, western Slovakia and eastern Austria.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 10

Denmark and Sweden

Average yield outlook for summer crops

In  both  countries,  warmer-than-usual  temperatures 
prevailed,  with  higher-than-average  cumulative  tem-
peratures  (Temperature  base  =  0  °C),  particularly  in 
central and northern Sweden. Rainfall was significantly 
above average. Global radiation was well below aver-
age in Sweden, but close to average in Denmark.
The  cereal  harvest  was  completed  in  September. 
Exceptionally wet conditions delayed the start of the 
sowing campaign in both countries.
The harvesting of potatoes and sugar beet is under way. 
The  yield  forecasts  for  sugar  beet  and  potato  remain 
practically unaltered compared with the previous bulle-
tin, and close to the 5-year average.

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Difficult end of season because of exceptionally wet conditions

Finland and the Baltic countries are forecast to be close 
to the 5-year average for most crops.

The  period  was  marked  by  an  exceptionally  wet  spell, 
especially  in  the  Baltic  countries,  where  persistent  and 
heavy  rains  since  the  first  of  September  have  brought 
cumulative  rainfall  to  >  90  mm  above  the  long-term 
average.  The  waterlogged  soils  were  almost  inacces-
sible  and  the  frequent  rains  hampered  field  work  to 
complete  harvesting  and  to  conduct  sowing  activities. 
Persistent humid conditions also resulted in a decrease 
in grain quality. In central parts of Finland, many crops 
have  not  yet  reached  maturity  because  of  below- 
average  temperatures  during  most  of  the  cycle, 
above-average  precipitation  and  low  radiation.  Where 
maturation has been reached, abundant rains have also 
complicated harvesting. Consequently, parts of the crops 
will not be harvested in Finland. Despite the difficult end 
to the season, yield expectations for harvested crops in 

Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg

Favourable outlook despite challenges caused by abundant rain

especially  for  sugar  beet,  for  which  the  forecast  is 
close to a record-high level.

The period from 5 to 20 September was particularly 
wet,  with  practically  daily  rain  events,  often  abun-
dant. The western and northern parts of the Nether- 
lands were most markedly affected. For the period as 
a whole, rainfall exceeded the average by 50-100 % 
in these regions; in other parts of the Netherlands, 
however,  and  in  Belgium  and  Luxembourg,  rainfall 
totals were close to the long-term average. Temper-
atures  were  predominantly  below  average  in  Sep-
tember  and  above  average  in  October.  Radiation 
levels  were  close  to  average.  Wet  conditions  inter-
rupted  field  operations  and  locally  caused  damage 
to potato crops. In general, however, there were suf-
ficient  periods  without  rain  to  advance  harvesting 
and sowing to within a normal or near-normal win-
dow. The yield outlook for summer crops is positive, 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 11

activities can take place. Weather conditions in Cyprus 
were still hot (Tmax around 30 °C) and dry, but it is still 
early for the sowing of winter crops.

Greece and Cyprus

Sowing time is approaching but rain is needed

In eastern and northern Greece, September was hot-
ter  than  usual,  with  maximum  temperatures  above 
30 °C for ten to fifteen days. However, after mid Sep-
tember, temperatures slowly decreased to seasonal or 
below-seasonal values. In October, maximum temper-
atures oscillated between 16 °C and 27 °C, compared 
with a seasonal average of 24 °C. September was gen-
erally  dry,  with  20  mm  of  precipitation  or  less  in  the 
main agricultural regions, except in the north-eastern 
parts, which received 40-80 mm of rain. October pre-
sented little (< 10 mm) or no precipitation. In southern 
and  western  regions,  cumulative  precipitation  since 
August has been the lowest since 1985. The summer 
crop season ended in late September with the harvest-
ing of grain maize. The sowing window for winter crops 
is  opening,  but  some  rain  is  needed  before  sowing 

Slovenia and Croatia

Wet September concludes unfavourable growing season for summer crops

Air temperatures during the review period were close to 
or slightly below the long-term average. Rainfall, with 
the  exception  of  the  easternmost  part  of  Croatia  and 
southern Dalmatia, exceeded the seasonal levels, delay-
ing  the  harvesting  campaign  of  summer  crops.  Sep-
tember was the wettest in our records in large regions 
of southern and eastern Slovenia, and in western and 
north-western  Croatia.  In  southern  Slovenia  and  parts 
of  Jadranska  Hrvatska  in  western  Croatia,  cumulative 
rainfall during the review period exceeded 300 mm. In 
Zadarska  Zupanija  and  Licko-Senjska  Zupanija,  rain-
fall  on  11  September  locally  exceeded  100  mm.  The 
harvesting  campaign  for  summer  crops  is  finishing. 
Because  of  unfavourable  summer  weather  conditions, 
the yield forecasts remain well below last year’s levels.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 12

2.3. Black Sea area

Ukraine

Sowing of winter cereals hampered by lack of rain

While Chernihivs’ka, Kyyivs’ka, Vinnyts’ka, Odes’ka and 
all westernmost oblasts received levels of rainfall close 
to the average for the period under review, dry condi-
tions continued to prevail in the eastern and southern 
oblasts, which received 10-70 % less rainfall than the 
seasonal  average.  The  greatest  deficit  was  observed 
in  Khersons’ka,  Kharkivs’ka,  Donets’ka,  Mykolayivs’ka 
and  Luhans’ka.  The  rain  deficit  hampered  the  sowing 
of winter cereals and delayed their emergence. At the 
end of September and beginning of October, substantial 
rainfall  was  observed  in  all  regions,  allowing  farmers 
to resume sowing and favouring emergence. Tempera-
tures were substantially higher than usual until the end 
of September (thus reinforcing the dry conditions), and 
have  dropped  to  seasonal  values  since  the  beginning 
of October. As a result of the dry conditions observed 

Turkey

High temperatures in September

In  the  western  Aegean  and  Anatolian  regions,  and  in 
Adana,  daily  maximum  temperatures  during  the  first 
half  of  September  were  much  higher  than  usual, 
exceeding  30  °C.  Around  20  September,  maximum 
temperatures dropped by 10 °C, and oscillated below 
the long-term average (between 20 °C and 25 °C) dur-
ing the following weeks. Cumulative precipitation from 
1  September  to  15  October  was  30-60  %  below  the 
long-term  average.  Maize  matured  around  mid  Sep-
tember,  and  harvesting  activities  were  completed  at 
the beginning of October. In south-eastern regions, hot 
temperatures  (Tmax  >  30  °C)  lasted  until  the  end  of 
September before dropping to seasonal values (Tmax 
<  25  °C).  In  these  regions,  no  significant  rain  was 
recorded during the analysis period. Maize grain filling   
occurred  during  September,  and  ripening  started  in 
early October. Maize yield expectations remain in line 

this  summer,  the  grain-maize  yield  forecast  has  been 
revised downwards

with  the  historical  trend,  above  the  5-year  average, 
both  for  the  abovementioned  regions  and  at  country 
level.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 13

far; however, in several regions, topsoil moisture levels 
are below optimal for adequate germination and early 
crop growth.

2.4. European Russia and Belarus

European Russia

Delayed winter wheat sowing

Near-normal thermal conditions characterised most of 
Russia during the review period. Southern Russia was 
warmer than usual, mainly because of extremely warm 
conditions  during  the  second  dekad  of  September, 
when  daily  average  temperatures  exceeded  the  long-
term average by 4-8 °C. Frequent and abundant rain in 
late August and early September significantly delayed 
the autumn sowing campaign in the Chernozem region 
(Central  Okrug)  and  in  the  western  part  of  the  Volga 
Okrug.  In  late  September,  the  situation  improved  and 
the  pace  of  sowing  increased,  but  the  first  half  of 
October again seems to have been troublesome. Late 
sowing can result in retarded growth and crop devel-
opment  of  winter  wheat  before  the  dormancy  period 
and lead to increased risk of frost damage from harsh 
winter conditions. In contrast, in southern Russia, win-
ter wheat sowing has progressed in a timely manner so 

Belarus

Grain-maize harvesting campaign progressing well, with average yield expectations

forecast  remains  slightly  below  the  long-term  trend 
and 5-year average.

September  2017  was  one  of  the  warmest  in  our 
records.  Warmer-than-usual  temperatures  prevailed 
in  all  regions  during  the  period  under  consideration  
(1 September-15 October), and most markedly during 
the  second  week  of  September,  when  temperature 
anomalies  reached  between  6 °C  (Brest  and  Grodno) 
and  8 °C  (central  and  eastern  regions).  Temperatures 
decreased  during  the  last  week  of  September,  drop-
ping below the long-term average during the first week 
of  October.  Rainfall  has  been  above  the  long-term 
average, especially due to the abundant precipitation 
that occurred during the first two dekads of Septem-
ber  and  the  first  dekad  of  October.  The  grain-maize 
harvesting campaign is in full swing, with some local 
problems  due  to  the  abundant  rainfall.  Our  previous 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 14

3. Crop yield forecasts

TOTAL WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.60
5.48
8.53
4.28
-
5.88
7.94
7.54
3.77
3.07
3.89
6.94
2.83
5.01
4.72
9.11
3.96
4.66
5.95
4.20
-
8.89
4.53
1.82
3.50
6.53
5.08
4.95
7.87

5.35
6.22
6.71
4.75
-
6.50
7.64
7.21
2.77
3.53
3.77
5.29
2.35
5.50
5.38
9.54
4.20
4.36
5.07
4.30
-
8.01
4.54
2.31
3.93
6.32
5.19
5.92
7.89

5.70
5.34
8.34
5.03
-
5.53
7.67
7.52
3.52
2.56
3.82
7.23
2.97
5.42
5.07
9.61
3.93
4.60
5.60
4.00
-
8.92
4.56
2.14
4.00
6.64
5.25
4.95
8.07

+ 1.7
- 2.5
- 2.3
+ 18
-
- 6.0
- 3.4
- 0.3
- 6.7
- 16
- 1.9
+ 4.1
+ 5.0
+ 8.1
+ 7.4
+ 5.5
- 0.9
- 1.2
- 6.0
- 4.7
-
+ 0.4
+ 0.7
+ 18
+ 15
+ 1.6
+ 3.3
+ 0.2
+ 2.6

+ 6.6
- 14
+ 24
+ 6.0
-
- 15
+ 0.4
+ 4.3
+ 27
- 27
+ 1.3
+ 37
+ 26
- 1.4
- 5.6
+ 0.8
- 6.5
+ 5.5
+ 10
- 7.1
-
+ 11
+ 0.4
- 7.6
+ 1.7
+ 5.0
+ 1.1
- 16
+ 2.3

TOTAL BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.83
5.39
8.21
3.90
1.72
5.08
6.79
5.78
3.39
2.91
3.57
6.45
2.79
4.46
4.43
7.71
3.81
3.55
-
3.22
-
6.77
3.71
2.04
3.23
4.89
4.61
4.31
6.10

4.87
6.12
6.34
4.32
0.70
5.66
6.69
5.59
2.64
3.62
3.59
5.44
2.31
4.72
5.14
7.82
4.13
3.13
-
2.96
-
6.53
3.72
2.62
3.80
4.80
4.78
5.13
5.93

4.73
5.38
8.16
4.70
1.81
5.00
6.60
5.92
3.18
2.19
3.50
6.32
3.04
4.75
4.82
7.98
3.80
3.39
-
2.95
-
6.50
3.65
2.17
3.74
4.90
4.76
4.36
6.27

- 2.1
- 0.2
- 0.7
+ 21
+ 5.8
- 1.5
- 2.8
+ 2.4
- 6.4
- 25
- 2.0
- 2.0
+ 9.0
+ 6.3
+ 8.9
+ 3.5
- 0.2
- 4.4
-
- 8.5
- 
- 4.0
- 1.6
+ 6.3
+ 16
+ 0.4
+ 3.3
+ 1.1
+2.8

- 2.8
- 12
+ 29
+ 8.7
+ 159
- 12
- 1.3
+ 5.9
+ 20
- 39
- 2.4
+ 16
+ 32
+ 0.6
- 6.3
+ 2.0
- 8.0
+ 8.2
-
- 0.3
- 
- 0.5
- 1.7
- 17
- 1.5
+ 2.1
- 0.4
- 15
+5.7

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 15

SOFT WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.84
5.52
8.53
4.29
-
5.88
7.96
7.54
3.77
3.25
3.89
7.07
3.10
5.01
4.72
9.11
5.51
4.66
5.95
4.20
-
8.89
4.53
1.82
3.50
6.53
5.08
4.95
7.87

5.56
6.29
6.71
4.75
-
6.50
7.66
7.21
2.77
3.84
3.77
5.37
2.33
5.50
5.39
9.54
5.65
4.36
5.07
4.30
-
8.01
4.54
2.31
3.93
6.32
5.19
5.94
7.89

5.94
5.44
8.34
5.04
-
5.53
7.70
7.52
3.52
2.66
3.82
7.34
3.23
5.42
5.08
9.61
5.38
4.60
5.60
4.00
-
8.92
4.56
2.14
4.00
6.64
5.25
4.99
8.07

+ 1.8
- 1.5
- 2.3
+ 17
-
- 6.0
- 3.3
- 0.3
- 6.7
- 18
- 1.9
+ 3.8
+ 4.0
+ 8.1
+ 7.6
+ 5.5
- 2.4
- 1.2
- 6.0
- 4.7
-
+ 0.4
+ 0.7
+ 18
+ 15
+ 1.6
+ 3.3
+ 0.9
+ 2.6

+ 6.9
- 14
+ 24
+ 6.0
- 
- 15
+ 0.5
+ 4.3
+ 27
- 31
+ 1.3
+ 37
+ 39
- 1.4
- 5.7
+ 0.8
- 4.8
+ 5.5
+ 10
- 7.1
-
+ 11
+ 0.4
- 7.6
+ 1.7
+ 5.0
+ 1.1
- 16
+ 2.3

DURUM WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.33
4.65
-
3.28
-
-
5.36
-
-
2.16
-
5.12
2.70
-
4.64
-
3.28
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.87
-

3.43
5.33
-
4.03
-
-
5.32
-
-
2.29
-
4.22
2.36
-
4.97
-
3.65
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.70
-

3.51
4.14
-
4.28
-
-
5.19
-
-
2.19
-
5.69
2.84
-
4.70
-
3.37
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.64
-

+ 5.2
- 11
-
+ 30
-
-
- 3.2
-
-
+ 1.4
-
+ 11
+ 5.4
-
+ 1.1
-
+ 2.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 4.7
-

+ 2.3
- 22
-
+ 6.1
-
-
- 2.4
-
-
- .6
-
+ 35
+ 21
-
- 5.6
-
- 7.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 19
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 16

SPRING BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.22
4.49
-
-
-
5.05
5.55
5.64
3.39
3.00
3.57
6.16
-
-
3.55
7.17
-
3.55
-
3.22
-
6.77
3.59
-
2.44
4.83
-
4.21
5.66

4.33
5.31
-
-
-
5.45
5.24
5.48
2.64
3.74
3.59
4.98
-
-
4.18
7.29
-
3.13
-
2.96
-
6.53
3.58
-
2.80
4.74
-
5.03
5.61

3.94
3.90
-
-
-
4.75
5.39
5.81
3.18
2.23
3.50
5.97
-
-
4.03
7.33
-
3.39
-
2.95
-
6.50
3.47
-
2.83
4.83
-
4.04
5.89

- 6.6
- 13
-
-
-
- 5.9
- 2.9
+ 2.9
- 6.4
- 26
- 2.0
- 3.1
-
-
+ 14
+ 2.3
-
- 4.4
-
- 8.5
-
- 4.0
- 3.2
-
+ 16
- 0.1
-
- 4.0
+ 4.1

- 9.0
- 27
-
-
-
- 13
+ 2.8
+ 5.9
+ 20
- 40
- 2.4
+ 20
-
-
- 3.5
+ 0.5
-
+ 8.2
-
- 0.3
-
- 0.5
- 3.1
-
+ 1.2
+ 1.9
-
- 20
+ 5.0

WINTER BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.68
6.08
8.21
3.90
1.72
5.17
7.20
6.46
-
2.37
-
6.56
2.79
4.46
4.74
9.16
3.81
-
-
-
-
-
4.23
2.04
3.52
6.09
4.61
4.73
6.88

5.55
6.59
6.34
4.32
0.70
6.13
7.07
6.17
-
2.66
-
5.57
2.31
4.72
5.31
8.64
4.13
-
-
-
-
-
4.46
2.62
4.13
5.77
4.78
5.37
6.43

5.76
6.29
8.16
4.70
1.81
5.61
6.94
6.41
-
1.89
-
6.42
3.04
4.75
5.01
9.03
3.80
-
-
-
-
-
4.29
2.17
4.04
6.01
4.76
5.20
7.04

+ 1.4
+ 3.5
- 0.7
+ 21
+ 5.8
+ 8.7
- 3.7
- 0.8
-
- 20
-
- 2.1
+ 9.0
+ 6.3
+ 5.6
- 1.3
- 0.2
-
-
-
-
-
+ 1.2
+ 6.3
+ 15
- 1.4
+ 3.3
+ 10
+ 2.4

+ 3.8
- 4.5
+ 29
+ 8.7
+ 159
- 8.4
- 1.9
+ 3.9
-
- 29
-
+ 15
+ 32
+ 0.6
-5.7
+ 4.6
- 8.0
-
-
-
-
-
- 3.9
- 17
- 2.1
+ 4.1
- 0.4
- 3.1
+ 10

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 17

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

6.89
9.92
10.6
5.66
-
7.74
9.77
-
-
11.1
-
8.83
10.8
6.46
6.15
-
9.45
6.32
-
-
-
10.2
6.35
8.28
3.65
-
8.00
6.44
-

7.14
11.2
9.23
5.45
-
9.79
9.65
-
-
11.1
-
8.19
10.1
8.41
8.61
-
10.4
6.91
-
-
-
7.84
7.29
8.03
3.49
-
9.54
8.53
-

6.91
10.2
11.0
5.98
-
7.20
10.1
-
-
10.9
-
9.22
10.4
5.79
6.40
-
8.82
6.60
-
-
-
11.8
6.35
8.07
4.00
-
6.96
5.81
-

+ 0.2
+ 2.8
+ 3.0
+ 5.6
-
- 6.9
+ 3.8
-
-
- 2.2
-
+ 4.5
-  3.5
- 10
+ 3.9
-
- 6.7
+ 4.4
-
-
-
+ 15
- 0.1
- 2.6
+ 10
-
- 13
- 10
-

- 3.3
- 8.6
+ 19
+ 10
-
- 26
+ 5.1
-
-
- 2.4
-
+ 13
+ 3.0
- 31
- 26
-
- 15
- 4.4
-
-
-
+ 51
- 13
+ 0.5
+ 15
-
- 27
- 32
-

GREEN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU*
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

41.9
44.7
-
20.2
-
36.5
43.5
36.0
-
41.3
-
41.2
15.2
34.4
25.7
50.5
51.0
32.0
45.6
29.5
-
42.2
45.2
-
23.9
-
42.8
28.1
-

41.2
49.3
-
24.0
-
40.7
43.1
30.6
-
40.8
-
35.6
11.0
42.3
32.5
49.5
53.4
32.7
42.3
33.1
-
40.9
49.3
-
24.5
-
48.7
34.9
-

44.0
46.6
-
22.0
-
35.3
47.8
38.3
-
40.0
-
41.5
13.5
33.5
23.7
50.5
50.4
33.0
50.7
29.2
-
45.9
46.5
-
25.7
-
38.9
27.1
-

+ 5.2
+ 4.3
-
+ 8.5
-
- 3.5
+ 10
+ 6.4
-
- 3.2
-
+ 0.8
- 11
- 2.6
- 7.6
+ 0.1
- 1.1
+ 3.1
+ 11
- 0.9
-
+ 8.7
+ 2.8
-
+ 7.2
-
- 8.9
- 3.8
-

+ 6.9
- 5.5
-
- 8.5
-
- 13
+ 11
+ 25
-
- 2.1
-
+ 17
+ 23
- 21
- 27
+ 2.1
- 5.5
+ 0.7
+ 20
- 12
-
+ 12
- 5.8
-
+ 4.8
-
- 20
- 22
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 18

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

RYE (t/ha)

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.89
4.49
-
-
-
4.88
5.71
5.97
3.06
2.01
3.19
4.75
1.87
-
2.77
-
-
2.44
-
3.48
-
-
2.91
0.85
-
6.19
-
3.70
3.48

3.90
5.05
-
-
-
4.98
5.56
5.80
2.61
2.50
3.38
3.97
1.48
-
3.03
-
-
2.38
-
3.94
-
-
2.89
0.90
-
6.12
-
3.78
1.88

3.84
4.66
-
-
-
5.22
5.54
6.00
2.82
1.58
3.01
4.63
2.06
-
2.83
-
-
2.48
-
3.20
-
-
2.91
0.80
-
6.17
-
3.90
6.05

- 1.3
+ 3.7
-
-
-
+ 7.0
- 3.0
+ 0.3
- 7.9
- 22
- 5.7
- 2.7
+ 9.9
-
+ 1.9
-
-
+ 1.8
-
- 7.9
-
-
- 0.1
- 5.5
-
- 0.4
-
+ 5.6
+ 74

- 1.5
- 7.8
-
-
-
+ 4.8
- 0.4
+ 3.4
+ 7.8
- 37
- 11
+ 16
+ 39
-
- 6.6
-
-
+ 4.2
-
- 19
-
-
+ 0.6
- 11
-
+ 0.8
-
+ 3.4
+ 221

TRITICALE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.20
5.44
-
2.95
-
4.70
6.49
-
-
2.25
-
5.17
1.75
4.01
3.86
-
-
3.43
-
-
-
-
3.64
1.53
3.24
5.61
-
-
4.08

3.98
5.88
-
3.06
-
4.88
6.05
-
-
2.41
-
4.28
1.75
4.10
4.14
-
-
3.28
-
-
-
-
3.64
1.95
2.90
5.23
-
-
3.91

4.18
4.99
-
3.50
-
4.69
6.30
-
-
2.31
-
5.19
2.04
4.38
3.93
-
-
3.42
-
-
-
-
3.71
1.75
3.56
5.42
-
-
4.06

- 0.5
- 8.3
-
+ 18
-
- 0.3
- 3.0
-
-
+ 2.9
-
+ 0.4
+ 17
+ 9.1
+ 1.6
-
-
- 0.4
-
-
-
-
+ 2.0
+ 14
+ 10
- 3.3
-
-
- 0.5

+ 5.0
- 15
-
+ 14
-
- 3.9
+ 4.0
-
-
- 4.3
-
+ 21
+ 16
+ 6.9
- 5.1
-
-
+ 4.2
-
-
-
-
+ 2.0
- 10
+ 23
+ 3.6
-
-
+ 3.9

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 19

RAPE AND TURNIP RAPE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.25
3.26
4.15
2.58
-
3.41
3.90
3.88
2.02
2.36
1.49
3.35
-
2.88
2.95
3.64
2.37
2.39
-
2.61
-
-
2.88
-
2.54
3.10
-
2.88
3.40

3.07
3.58
3.44
2.95
-
3.46
3.45
3.10
1.46
2.58
1.54
3.06
-
3.11
3.44
3.46
2.57
2.60
-
2.83
-
-
2.68
-
2.84
2.89
-
3.46
3.07

3.25
3.22
4.31
2.87
-
3.17
3.59
4.03
1.95
2.34
1.51
3.65
-
3.08
3.09
4.02
2.57
2.52
-
2.72
-
-
2.95
-
2.69
3.05
-
3.35
3.41

- 0.2
- 1.4
+ 3.9
+ 11
-
- 6.9
- 8.1
+ 4.0
- 3.6
- 0.7
+ 1.5
+ 8.8
-
+ 6.9
+ 4.9
+ 11
+ 8.4
+ 5.3
-
+ 4.3
-
-
+ 2.3
-
+ 5.6
- 1.5
-
+ 16
+ 0.3

+ 5.9
- 10
+ 25
- 2.9
-
- 8.3
+ 3.8
+ 30
+ 33
- 9.1
- 2.0
+ 19
-
- 0.9
- 10
+ 16
+ 0.0
- 3.1
-
- 3.9
-
-
+ 10
-
- 5.4
+ 5.5
-
- 3.2
+ 11

SUGAR BEETS (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

72.2
71.8
77.2
-
-
64.2
72.1
60.9
-
91.8
38.1
87.7
-
55.9
57.2
-
56.8
54.1
-
-
-
80.6
55.9
-
37.6
63.9
-
56.8
71.0

74.5
81.3
72.5
-
-
67.8
76.2
51.3
-
91.7
37.3
85.5
-
75.5
67.5
-
63.4
61.3
-
-
-
77.8
65.8
-
40.6
65.0
-
70.2
66.0

76.7
63.3
84.2
-
-
67.0
80.9
60.9
-
93.0
37.9
89.9
-
55.6
61.5
-
54.7
54.4
-
-
-
86.8
60.0
-
43.7
63.9
-
62.3
73.3

+ 6.3
- 12
+ 9.0
-
-
+ 4.3
+ 12
- 0.1
-
+ 1.3
- 0.6
+ 2.6
-
-0.5
+ 7.6
-
- 3.7
+ 0.5
-
-
-
+ 7.7
+ 7.2
-
+ 16
+ 0.0
-
+ 9.7
+ 3.1

+ 3.0
- 22
+ 16
-
-
- 1.3
+ 6.1
+ 19
-
+ 1.4
+ 1.5
+ 5.2
-
-26
- 8.8
-
- 14
- 11
-
-
-
+ 12
- 8.8
-
+ 7.6
- 1.7
-
- 11
+ 11

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 20

POTATO (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

32.6
31.4
45.9
13.3
-
26.5
44.1
41.8
-
31.0
26.6
42.7
25.0
16.6
24.1
-
26.6
16.8
-
18.6
-
43.4
23.8
18.7
14.4
34.2
-
-
42.1

33.8
36.2
38.2
13.6
-
29.9
44.4
42.4
-
31.1
27.1
38.9
27.5
19.7
24.6
-
28.3
16.0
-
18.8
-
42.9
28.5
18.8
14.4
35.6
-
-
45.0

33.7
31.3
45.4
14.5
-
27.0
45.9
41.5
-
31.4
27.3
45.8
26.1
17.7
25.3
-
25.4
17.8
-
17.5
-
45.2
22.0
19.0
15.5
35.0
-
-
45.1

+ 3.3
- 0.2
- 1.2
+ 8.8
-
+ 1.9
+ 4.1
- 0.9
-
+ 1.6
+ 2.8
+ 7.1
+ 4.2
+ 6.9
+ 5.1
-
- 4.6
+ 5.7
-
- 5.9
-
+ 4.0
- 7.4
+ 1.7
+ 7.8
+ 2.3
-
-
+ 7.2

- 0.3
- 13
+ 19
+ 6.6
-
- 10
+ 3.2
- 2.2
-
+ 1.0
+ 0.7
+ 18
- 5.0
- 10
+ 2.8
-
- 10
+ 11
-
- 6.7
-
+ 5.4
- 23
+ 0.9
+ 7.2
- 1.6
-
-
+ 0.2

SUNFLOWER (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

1.94
2.53
-
2.15
-
2.32
2.18
-
-
1.05
-
2.15
1.95
2.55
2.55
-
2.26
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.93
1.83
-
-
2.47
-

2.04
3.29
-
2.20
-
2.85
2.14
-
-
0.99
-
1.99
2.11
2.81
2.95
-
2.42
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.30
1.92
-
-
2.94
-

2.08
2.67
-
2.33
-
2.33
2.19
-
-
1.05
-
2.34
2.17
2.56
2.81
-
2.15
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.09
1.96
-
-
2.35
-

+ 7.5
+ 5.9
-
+ 8.2
-
+ 0.3
+ 0.4
-
-
-0.4
-
+ 8.5
+ 12
+ 0.3
+ 10
-
- .8
-
-
-
-
-
-
+ 18
+ 6.9
-
-
- 5.0
-

+ 2.2
- 19
-
+ 5.6
-
- 18
+ 2.6
-
-
+ 5.3
-
+ 18
+ 3.0
- 8.9
- 4.9
-
- 1
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 16
+ 1.8
-

- 20
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017  
21

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

WHEAT (t/ha)

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

3.66
2.69
3.69

3.71
2.71
4.21

3.69
2.85
4.01

+ 1.0
+ 5.8
+ 8.6

- 0.4
+ 5.1
- 4.8

BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

3.44
2.63
2.73

3.50
2.48
3.30

3.61
2.69
3.33

+ 5.0
+ 2.3
+ 22

+ 3.1
+ 8.3
+ 0.8

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

5.26
8.83
5.84

5.33
9.42
6.60

5.04
9.81
5.53

- 4.0
+ 1
- 5.4

-  5.4
+ 4.2
- 16

Note:   
Sources: 

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country (for rice more than 1 000 ha per country).
 2017 yields come from the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.10.2017).  
For EU Member States the reported humidity levels are generally between 65 % and 70 %.
* The EU figures do not include green-maize forecasts for Belgium, Portugal, Sweden and  
the United Kingdom since recent data on yields were not available.
 EU. 2012-2017 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term outlook data (dated September 2017,  
received on 29.9.2017), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 10.10.2017) and EES (last update: 14.9.2017).
Non-EU. 2012-2016 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 10.10.2017),  
State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD online.
Potato and sugar beet: the 2016 yields for Croatia and Italy come from the National Institute of Statistics.
A 2017 yield value as reported by the Member State is published and made available by Eurostat for the rows in italic.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017  
 
 
 
 
 
 
22

4. Pasture monitoring

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 5. Atlas 

Precipitation

23

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 24

Temperature regime

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 Climatic water balance

25

Weather events

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 26

Maize

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 27

Rainfall around harvesting

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017 Reference

Vol. 25 No 1
Vol. 25 No 2
Vol. 25 No 3

Vol. 25 No 4

Vol. 25 No 5

28

JRC MARS Bulletins 2017

Date

Publication

23 Jan 
20 Feb 
27 Mar 

24 Apr 

22 May 

26 Jun 

24 Jul 

21 Aug 

18 Sep 

23 Oct 

27 Nov 

18 Dec 

Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis and 
yield forecast
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing, 
yield forecast and 
sowing conditions
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
yield forecast and  
pasture analysis
and pasture analysis
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing,
yield forecast,
pasture update and
rice analysis
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing,
yield forecast and
pasture update
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing,
yield forecast and  
pasture update
Agromet analysis,  
rice analysis and  
yield forecast 
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing and
yield forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
yield forecast and
sowing conditions
Agromet analysis 

K
J
-
A
W
-
1
7
-
0
1
0
-
E
N
-
N

The current JRC MARS Bulletin  — Crop monitoring in Europe 
is a JRC–EC publication from MARS4CAST  
(JRC D5 Unit — Directorate Sustainable Resources)

MARS Bulletins are available under:
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/Bulletins

Analysis and reports
B. Baruth, S. Bassu, I. Biavetti, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar,
I. Cerrani, D. Fumagalli, S. Garcia Condado, R. Lecerf,
R. Lopez, A. Maiorano, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, L. Seguini,
A. Toreti, M. Van den Berg, M. Van der Velde,
C. Weissteiner, A. Zucchini

Reporting support
G. Mulhern

Vol. 25 No 6

Editing
B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer

Vol. 25 No 7

Vol. 25 No 8

Vol. 25 No 9

Vol. 25 No 10

Vol. 25 No 11

Vol. 25 No 12

Data production
MARS4CAST — JRC D5 Unit, Alterra (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), 
VITO (BE) and CMCC (IT)

Contact
JRC D5/MARS4CAST  
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu

*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Legal notice:
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of 
the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of 
this publication.

Disclaimer:
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and 
are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily 
reflect the official Commission position.

Technical note:
The LTA used within this bulletin as a reference is based on an archive 
of data covering 1975-2016. 

Mission statement: as the science and knowledge service of 
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre’s mission 
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout 
the whole policy cycle.

Printed by the Publications Office in Luxembourg

ISSN  Print  2443-826X

ISSN  PDF  2443-8278

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 10 — 23 October 2017