JRC MARS bulletin : crop monitoring in Europe. Vol. 25 No 8, August 2017.
Date: 2017-11-16
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, climatology, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

1

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8

Period covered: 1 July -18 August
Issued: 21 August 2017

JRC MARS Bulletin
Crop monitoring in Europe
August 2017
Slightly improved outlook for summer crops 
Rain mitigates impacts of heatwaves in south-eastern Europe   

In large parts of the Mediterranean region, central and eastern Europe, heatwaves and low precipitation continued in July 
and at the beginning of August. However, summer crops in Austria, Hungary, central Romania, Bulgaria and Greece bene- 
fited from adequate rainfall, which mitigated negative effects from the hot conditions. In western and northern Europe, 
mild temperatures and average to above-average rainfall since the second half of July also benefited summer crops, but 
frequent rains hampered the harvesting of spring and winter cereals and raised quality concerns.

On  balance,  at  the  EU  level,  the  forecast  for  grain 
maize has been slightly revised upwards and is now 
just above the 5-year average but below last year’s 
yield,  as  marked  downward  revisions  for  Italy,  and 
Slovakia were more than compensated for by upward 
revisions  for  Romania,  Hungary,  Austria,  Bulgaria 
France and Germany. The forecasts for green maize, 

sunflower  and  sugar  beet  have  also  been  revised 
upwards.  The  yield  forecast  for  winter  cereals  has 
remained  stable  at  EU  level:  downward  revisions  of 
soft  wheat  yields  in  Germany,  the  UK,  and  Ireland 
(mainly  due  to  the  difficult  conditions  around  har-
vesting)  have  been  compensated  for  by  an  upward 
revision for France.

Yield (t/ha)

Crop

Avg 5yrs

April
Bulletin

MARS 2017 
forecasts

% Diff
17/5yrs

% Diff
April

TOTAL CEREALS

Total Wheat

soft wheat

durum wheat

Total Barley

spring barley

winter barley

Grain maize

Rye

Triticale

Rape and turnip rape

Potato

Sugar beet

Sunflower

Issued: 21 August 2017

5.30

5.60

5.84

3.33

4.83

4.22

5.68

6.89

3.89

4.20

3.24

32.6

72.0

1.94

5.27

5.61

5.85

3.41

4.71

3.94

5.73

6.83

3.82

4.18

3.21

33.5

73.8

2.04

5.29

5.61

5.85

3.44

4.74

3.97

5.73

6.93

3.81

4.20

3.27

33.3

74.7

2.07

- 0.3

+ 0.1

+ 0.2

+ 3.3

- 2.0

- 6.0

+ 0.9

+ 0.6

- 2.2

- 0.2

+ 0.8

+ 2.2

+ 3.7

+ 6.3

+ 0.4

+ 0.0

+ 0.0

+ 0.9

+ 0.6

+ 0.8

+ 0.0

- 1.5

- 0.3

+ 0.5

+ 1.9

- 0.7

+ 1.2

+ 1.5

1
Agro-meteorological 
overview

2
Observed canopy 
conditions by remote 
sensing

3

Country analysis

4
Crop yield forecasts

5
Pasture monitoring

6
Atlas

Joint
Research
Centre

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 2

1.	 Agro-meteorological	overview

1.1.  Areas of concern

In  Mediterranean  regions  and  eastern  Europe,  heat-
waves and low precipitation continued in July and at 
the  beginning  of  August,  as  shown  in  the  areas-of- 
concern  maps  below.  Concerns  for  winter  crops  (the 
Czech  Republic,  Slovakia  and  Austria)  and  summer 
crops  (Spain,  Greece,  northern  Ukraine)  that  were 
reported in the July bulletin are not mapped again.

The drought in the Iberian Peninsula is still ongoing. 
Water for irrigation has been sufficient to maintain irri-
gated crops in good shape but reservoirs are running 
low and concerns could rise in the coming weeks if no 
rain comes.
In Italy, the drought, which in July was limited to cen-
tral  regions,  is  now  evident  even  in  the  Po  valley.  In 
both  central  and  northern  regions,  irrigated  summer 
crops  suffered  from  a  shortening  of  the  grain-filling 
stage,  while  non-irrigated  crops  present  early  senes-
cence.  In  the  United  Kingdom,  Denmark,  most  of 
Germany and western Poland, the winter crop cycle 
ended  at  the  end  of  July  but  harvest  activities  were 
hampered  by  persistent  rains,  with  possible  impacts 
on grain quality.
In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the scarce rains 
of July and August did not alleviate the drought con-
ditions  and  summer  crops  faced  a  shortening  of  the 
grain-filling  stage.  Drought  conditions  are  even  more 
marked along the Danube valley in Serbia, Hungary, 
western  Romania,  Slovenia  and  Croatia,  with  an 
associated acceleration of the grain-filling stage, and 
locally  early  crop  senescence  is  observed.  In  central 
Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Ukraine, two to four 
heatwaves have occurred since the beginning of July, 
generally  accelerating  the  phenological  development 
of the summer crops, yet without causing major con-
cerns thanks to adequate moisture supply.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 3

1.2.  Meteorological review (1 July-15 August)

Warmer-than-usual weather conditions, with mean 
temperature  anomalies  between  1  °C  and  5  °C  above 
the long-term average, were dominant in the southern 
half of the Iberian Peninsula, most of Italy, Austria, the 
Czech  Republic,  the  southern  half  of  Poland,  Slovakia, 
Hungary, Romania, the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey, most 
of  Ukraine,  southern  Russia  and  large  areas  in  the 
Maghreb countries. The most pronounced positive ther-
mal  anomalies  were  recorded  in  central  and  southern 
Italy, the western half of the Balkan Peninsula, south-
ern Hungary and south-western Romania, as well as in 
western Turkey, southern Russia and the Maghreb coun-
tries, where this period of review was among the three 
warmest on our records.
Extreme  heatwaves  occurred  in  the  Iberian  Penin-
sula,  south-eastern  France,  Italy,  Romania,  Hungary, 
most  of  the  Balkan  Peninsula,  Ukraine,  Turkey  and 
southern  Russia,  as  well  as  in  the  Maghreb  countries. 
In  the  most  affected  regions,  the  number  of  hot  days 
(Tmax  >  30  °C)  was  7-20  days  higher  than  usual  and 
on the warmest days maximum temperatures reached 
37-47 °C. More than five hot days were also recorded 
in France, southern Germany, the Czech Republic, south-
ern  Poland,  northern  Ukraine,  southern  Belarus  and  a 
wide belt in central Russia. In southern Europe, typically 

four or five successive heatwaves occurred during the 
review period.
Colder-than-usual  weather  conditions,  with  mean 
temperature  anomalies  between  –  2  °C  and  –  1  °C, 
occurred  in  considerable  areas  of  the  Scandinavian 
Peninsula (southern Norway, Sweden and southern Fin-
land), parts of the Baltic countries and some regions of 
Russia between the Baltic Sea and the southern Urals.
Drier-than-usual  weather  conditions  prevailed  in 
southern  France,  Italy,  the  western  Balkan  region,  the 
Carpathian  Basin,  south-eastern  Poland,  eastern  Swe-
den, western and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia. 
Dry  conditions  with  less  than  20  mm  of  cumulative 
rainfall  occurred  in  the  southern  and  western  Iberian 
Peninsula, some coastal areas of the Italian and Balkan 
Peninsulas,  most  of  Turkey  and  southern  Russia  close 
to the Caspian Sea, as well as in the Maghreb region.
Wetter-than-usual conditions, with water surpluses 
exceeding 50 mm more than average cumulative pre-
cipitation, characterised the majority of the British Isles, 
western  Scandinavia,  the  Netherlands,  Germany,  Aus-
tria, western Poland, south-eastern Romania, northern 
Bulgaria, some parts of eastern Greece and large parts 
of north- and central-eastern European Russia.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 4

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 2. Observed canopy conditions by remote sensing

5

The map displays the differences between the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) from 
1 June to 10 August 2017, and the medium-term average (MTA, 2007-2016) for the same period. Positive anomalies 
(in green) reflect above-average biomass accumulation or delayed crop development, while negative anomalies 
(in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or advanced crop development.

The map summarises the growing conditions since June 
throughout  Europe.  In  Spain  are  visible,  in  green  and 
yellow, the irrigated regions where maize, now at grain 
filling, has average to good biomass accumulation; high-
lighted in red are the regions where drought drastically 
reduced  (non-irrigated)  winter  crop  yields.  In  Italy,  the 
low fAPAR values in the central regions (e.g. Umbria) dis-
play the effects of a persisting drought. In the Po valley, 
where most of the fields are irrigated, fAPAR anomalies 
indicate  average  biomass  accumulation  with  slightly 
accelerated development. In France, the north-western 
regions present an early end of the maize season due to 
the  higher-than-usual  temperatures,  which  accelerated 
phenological development during summer (e.g. Pays de 
la Loire). In eastern France, Belgium and western Ger-
many, the winter crop season ended early, at the begin-
ning  of  July.  In  the  United  Kingdom,  in  southern  and 
northern regions, crops reached (or are reaching) matu-
rity  slightly  early  compared  with  an  average  year  (e.g. 
Eastern Scotland). In southern Germany, rain at the end 
of July compensated for a drier-than-usual summer, to 

the benefit of summer crops, which maintained average 
biomass accumulation. In eastern Germany and western 
Poland, summer crops were slightly favoured by warm 
weather, and overall biomass accumulation is now just 
above the average. In eastern Poland and in the Baltic 
countries, the initial delay in development, as a conse-
quence of the low spring temperatures, was maintained 
during  summer,  and  winter  crops  reached  maturity  at 
the  end  of  July,  later  than  usual  (e.g.  Mazowieckie).  In 
central Europe (Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic) 
the  winter  crop  season  ended  under  suboptimal  condi-
tions  (e.g.  Jihovýchod)  due  to  the  two  heatwaves  that 
occurred  in  July  and  shortened  the  grain-filling  period. 
In Hungary and western Romania, persistent hot tem-
peratures accelerated the phenological development of 
summer crops, slightly shortening the grain-filling period 
(e.g. Macroregiunea Patru). In central and eastern Roma-
nia and in Bulgaria, summer crop development is not 
accelerated  and  crops  are  developing  towards  the  end 
of grain filling under optimal conditions. In Ukraine, the 
summer has been drier than usual, but soil moisture has 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 6

been sufficient to maintain average to good summer crop 
growth, as shown by fAPAR (e.g. Ternopil’s’ka). In central 
Turkey, the map displays a strong positive anomaly due 

to the considerable delay in the winter cereal season: in 
those regions, harvest ended at the end of July, almost 
one month later than in an average year.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 7

3. Country analysis

3.1. European Union

France

Since  the  beginning  of  July,  rainfall  has  been  near 
average, and a small rain surplus was even recorded 
in  Lorraine  and  Champagne-Ardennes.  The  rainfall 
was  particularly  beneficial  in  Lorraine  and  Pays  de 
la  Loire,  the  regions  most  affected  by  the  drought 
caused by a low winter recharge and a rain deficit in 
spring. Temperatures until the second dekad of July 
were largely above the average, but no consequences 
for  crop  yields  are  expected.  Following  the  rainfall, 
grain maize and green maize conditions are favour-
able,  but  yield  forecasts  are  close  to  the  average, 
considering  that  the  ongoing  irrigation  restrictions 
will  limit  the  yields  of  irrigated  maize.  Green  maize 
is strongly advanced compared with an average year, 
and the harvest has already started in Lorraine and 
Pays  de  la  Loire.  Sugar  beet  and  potato  yields  are 
forecast to be slightly above the average, as the rain-

Germany 

The  period  under  review  is  characterised  by  unstable 
weather  conditions  with  high  rainfall  amounts  and 
fewer  hot  days  than  usual.  July  especially  was  very 
wet, with several extreme rainfall events and continu- 
ous  rain  predominantly  occurring  in  the  northern  half 
of the country. Agricultural damage — including flooded 
areas,  waterlogging,  hampered  harvesting  operations 
and deteriorating grain quality — is reported from Nied-
ersachsen in particular, but northern Thüringen, north-
ern Hessen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Brandenburg were also 
affected. Temperatures showed large fluctuations, with 
maximum temperatures ranging from 13 °C to 36 °C.
The  pattern  of  bad  weather  alternating  with  a  few 
sunny days continued into August. The forecast for soft 
wheat has been revised downwards to take into account 
the difficult weather conditions. For summer crops, the 

fall during the period of analysis was beneficial and 
the small rain deficit since sowing has limited disease 
pressure.

rainfall  and  the  absence  of  extreme  temperatures  is 
considered positive. 

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 8

Poland

Slightly warmer-than-usual temperatures have prevailed 
since  the  beginning  of  July.  Rainfall  in  July  was  higher 
than usual in the west, whereas the eastern and south-
ern regions were somewhat drier than usual. Heavy rain-
fall during the first dekad of August in the north-west-
ern regions (with the exception of Zachodniopomorskie) 
hampered winter cereal harvesting. In general, however, 
harvest  operations  are  well  advanced.  Initial  informa-
tion from the field indicates satisfactory yields (around 
average),  with  quality  occasionally  negatively  affected 
by the abundant rains. Conditions observed so far have 
been favourable to grain maize crops, which are at the 
grain-filling stage. However, the warm temperatures and 
almost  continuous  rainfall  during  the  flowering  phase 
(around  the  second  to  third  dekads  of  July)  created 
increased risks of the spread and development of fun-
gal  diseases.  The  outlook  for  sugar  beet  has  improved 

United Kingdom and Ireland

Above-average temperatures prevailed in the UK and 
Ireland  during  the  first  two  dekads  of  July;  below- 
average temperatures have prevailed since then.
After  a  relatively  dry  first  dekad  of  July,  rainfall 
increased  substantially,  reaching  cumulative  levels 
that were above average in the UK and close to the 
average in Ireland. The frequent rainfall events have 
hampered  the  harvesting  of  winter  and  spring  cer- 
eals,  negatively  affecting  grain  quality.  Harvesting 
is  still  underway,  and  field  results  suggest  around 
average or slightly above-average yields, in line with 
our forecast. However, field results reported for win-
ter barley are very variable, and often below expect- 
ations, so far without a clear explanation. The fore-
cast  for  winter  barley  in  Ireland  has  consequently 
been revised downwards.
Oilseed rape was harvested with good yields. Sugar beet 
and  potatoes  are  in  good  shape,  and  the  forecasts  for 

somewhat compared to the last bulletin as the crop has 
partially recovered from the negative conditions during 
the first part of the growing season.

these crops remain close to or slightly above the 5-year 
average.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 9

Spain and Portugal

Warm conditions prevailed over the Iberian Peninsula 
from  July  until  the  first  week  of  August,  with  daily 
averages  2-3  °C  above  seasonal  values.  No  signifi-
cant precipitation was registered in most regions, with 
the exception of the northern coast of Spain and the 
centre  (Madrid,  the  south  of  Castilla  y  León  and  the 
north  of  Castilla-La  Mancha),  where  heavy  thunder-
storms were registered in the second week of July. The 
outlook for summer crops is average. Rainfall in July 
slightly  improved  sunflower  conditions  during  grain 
filling. Remote sensing indicates that maize, potatoes 
and  sugar  beet  have  not  suffered  major  irrigation 
restrictions so far.

Italy

Dry  and  warmer-than-usual  conditions  have  continued 
across  Italy.  Some  of  the  most  important  grain-maize- 
producing regions, such as Cremona, Ferrara and Rovigo, 
were affected by three heatwaves. After 6 August, thun-
derstorms  hit  some  important  grain-maize-produc-
ing areas, including the province of Torino, the western 
provinces of Emilia Romagna and southern Veneto. Co- 
occurring  hailstorms  may  have  caused  local  damage. 
Grain maize crops are now in the middle of the grain-filling 
stage. Although grain maize is mostly irrigated in Italy, 
the  hot  and  dry  conditions  that  have  prevailed  so  far 
have  had  a  negative  overall  impact  on  production,  and 
have increased the risk of fungus infection and mycotoxin 
contamination.  Our  yield  forecast  is  further  decreased. 
The yield expectation has also further decreased for sun-
flowers, because of the very dry conditions in the main 

regions for this crop (Toscana and Le Marche) during the 
growing season so far.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 10

Hungary

During  the  review  period,  four  heatwaves  occurred 
in  Hungary  and  the  positive  thermal  anomaly  for  the 
period as a whole reached 1-2.5 °C. The number of hot 
days (Tmax > 30 °C) exceeded the average by 7-15 days. 
The  hot  weather  shortened  the  grain-filling  period  of 
summer  crops  and  led  to  early  leaf  senescence.  Rain 
was slightly below normal but well distributed over time, 
thus keeping soil moisture above critical levels. The sat-
isfactory  water  supply  for  maize  and  sunflower  crops 
mitigated  the  negative  effect  of  the  heatwaves,  and 
biomass  accumulation  is  still  average.  Consequently, 
our  yield  forecast  has  been  slightly  revised  upwards 
compared with the July estimate. The harvest of winter 
cereals progressed well and the yield outlook is above 
the 5-year average, but remains below the record level 
of 2016.

Romania

Since mid June, weather conditions have been charac-
terised by regularly alternating warmer- and colder- 
than-usual periods, finally resulting in four heatwaves 
and five to fifteen more hot days (Tmax > 30 °C) than 
usual.  Precipitation  totals  substantially  exceeded 
the  long-term  average  in  the  main  crop-producing 
south-eastern regions (in particular, the first and last 
dekad  of  July  were  exceptionally  wet).  By  contrast, 
the  Centru  region  and  the  areas  along  the  northern 
border tended to be drier than usual.
Water  supply  conditions  for  summer  crops  have  been 
mostly  adequate  along  the  Danube  and  Black  Sea 
coast; in these regions, biomass accumulation is above 
average,  especially  in  the  case  of  grain  maize.  How-
ever, western and north-eastern Romania suffered from 
different degrees of water scarcity, and biomass accu-
mulation is average to below average. Considering our 

model simulations and remote sensing information, our 
yield  forecast  at  national  level  has  been  moderately 
revised upwards, particularly for maize.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 11

Bulgaria

During  the  review  period,  20  to  40  hot  days  (Tmax  > 
30 °C) were experienced. During heatwaves, the daily 
maximum  temperatures  typically  reached  33-36  °C 
but  values  up  to  41  °C  were  recorded  in  the  first 
dekad of July. As the heatwaves alternated with cold-
er-than-usual  periods,  the  average  temperature  for 
the period as a whole was 1-2 °C higher than usual. 
Precipitation  moderately  exceeded  the  average,  but 
some  areas  in  the  Yugoiztochen  and  Yugozapaden 
regions  were  drier  than  usual.  The  abundant  rains 
maintained  the  soil  moisture  content  at  average  or 
above-average level. The progress of harvesting win-
ter wheat and winter barley was considerably delayed 
by rains during the first dekad of July. Biomass accu-
mulation of summer crops exceeds the average in the 
main maize- and sunflower-producing regions. There-

Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic

For the period as a whole, temperatures exceeded the 
long-term  average  by  1-2  °C.  Most  agricultural  areas 
were affected by three heatwaves from the beginning 
of  July,  with  maximum  temperatures  on  the  hottest 
days reaching between 33 °C and 38 °C. Because of the 
advanced development stage of grain maize, the max-
imum heatwave intensity coincided with the beginning 
of  the  grain-filling  period.  Rainfall  occurred  mainly  in 
the form of thunderstorms, with high spatial variability. 
Cumulative  amounts  were  above  the  long-term  aver-
age in the western half of Austria and in eastern parts 
of  the  Czech  Republic,  and  close  to  or  slightly  below 
the long-term average elsewhere. Soil moisture levels 
in  the  most  drought-affected  regions  (Jihomoravsky, 
Niederösterreich, Bratislavský kraj, Západné Slovensko) 
remain low. The grain maize yield outlook remains below 

fore,  our  yield  forecast  has  been  maintained  at  well 
above the 5-year average.

the 5-year average in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, 
and well below last year’s levels in all three countries.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 12

Denmark and Sweden

Below-average  temperatures  prevailed  in  both  coun-
tries throughout the review period.
In Denmark, rainfall was below average during the first 
two dekads of July, after which it increased to above- 
average levels. This rainfall was beneficial to summer 
crops  but  hampered  the  harvesting  of  winter  cereals 
and rapeseed. In Sweden, after a much drier-than-usual 
July, rainfall returned to average levels in August, but 
remained well below average in Östra Sverige.
All  cereals  present  above-average  accumulation  of 
biomass and storage organs, and models show below- 
average yields for winter cereals only in Östra Sverige. 
Good yields are forecast for rapeseed. The first harvests 
of  winter  wheat  started  with  positive  yields  and  nor-
mal protein levels, while the harvest of spring barley is 
expected to take off during the coming weeks. Our yield 
forecast for winter and spring cereals remains positive.

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

In  the  Baltic  countries,  July  was  marked  by  chilly  con-
ditions  but  temperatures  returned  to  average  or  above 
average in August. The excessively wet conditions (and 
associated  pest  and  disease  pressures)  experienced  in 
Latvia  and  Lithuania  during  the  first  half  of  July  were 
followed by a period of moderate, less-frequent rains. In 
Estonia,  however,  heavy  thunderstorms  in  August  may 
have caused crop damage. Rain-free days during August 
allowed harvesting to start in Lithuania and Latvia, with 
around one week’s delay. Yield forecasts remain practi-
cally  unchanged,  from  close  to  the  5-year  average  for 
winter crops to below the 5-year average for spring crops.
In Finland, chilly conditions have prevailed during most 
of the review period. These weather conditions are likely 
to extend the grain filling and ripening of spring crops, 
which  were  already  delayed  (by  two  to  three  weeks). 

Sugar  beet  and  potato  crops  continue  to  show  above- 
average  growth.  The  forecast  remains  mainly  unchanged 
from the July bulletin, i.e. close to average in both countries.

The forecasts for these crops have been revised slightly 
downwards but are still close to the 5-year average.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg

13

Temperatures fluctuated around the seasonal average, 
with above-average values predominating in July and 
below-average values in August.
Rainfall  events  were  frequent  and  regularly  distrib-
uted,  resulting  in  near-  or  above-average  cumulative 
amounts in most of the region. However, in the west-
ern half of Belgium, rainfall was below average.
The  harvesting  of  winter  cereals  has  practically  fin-
ished, about two weeks early compared with an aver-
age  season.  Harvesting  operations  generally  pro-
ceeded well, albeit in ‘stop-start’ mode because of the 
frequent  rains.  Reports  from  the  field  of  grain  yield 
and quality are generally cautiously positive.
Summer  crops  benefited  from  the  mild  weather 
conditions  and  improved  water  supply.  However,  in 
large  parts  of  Belgium,  soil  water  content  remains 
close to critical. Yield forecasts for winter crops have 

Greece and Cyprus

In  Greece,  daily  maximum  temperatures  fluctuated 
around 35 °C during the first half of July, slightly above 
the  average.  Around  15  July,  unusual  precipitation 
occurred — 60 mm in three days in Kentriki Makedonia, 
90 mm in Thessalia — and the temperatures dropped 
drastically (Tmax in Thessalia around 18 °C). Since mid 
July, two heatwaves have occurred: the first at the end 
of July (Tmax around 35 °C) and the second during the 
first days of August (Tmax > 35 °C). Irrigated summer 
crops  suffered  no  significant  impact:  the  hot  temper-
atures  should  have  been  mitigated  by  irrigation  prac-
tices.  The  grain  maize  yield  forecast  remains  below 
the  5-year  average,  while  the  forecast  for  sunflowers 
remains above the 5-year average.

been maintained. The forecasts for sugar beet, grain 
maize, green maize and potatoes have been slightly 
increased.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 14

Slovenia and Croatia

With positive thermal anomalies of 2-4 °C, the period since 
the beginning of July has been among the five warmest in 
our records. Several heatwaves occurred, the most intense 
and longest at the end of July and beginning of August. 
Maximum temperatures between 38 °C and 40 °C (locally 
even above 40 °C) were recorded in eastern Croatia, the 
coastal  part  of  Croatia  and  south-western  Slovenia.  Hot 
temperatures  and  the  strong  rainfall  deficit  have  led  to 
severe drought conditions in these regions. The sensitive 
stage of flowering for grain maize had already occurred 
during the first half of July and in many regions coincided 
with  a  heatwave  with  maximum  temperatures  above 
35  °C.  Hot  and  dry  weather  after  flowering  has  further 
worsened  growing  conditions.  Consequently,  our  maize 
yield outlook is well below last year’s and below the 5-year 
average.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 15

3.2. Black Sea Area

Ukraine

Aggregate rainfall during the period of analysis is close 
to  the  average  in  central  Ukraine,  but  a  slight  deficit 
was recorded in eastern and western oblasts. Tempera-
tures were close to the average until the second dekad 
of July and have been well above average since then. 
The rainfall recorded in central Ukraine was beneficial 
to grain maize, as it limited the impact of water stress. 
Maize yield is forecast to be slightly below the 5-year 
average.  The  harvest  conditions  for  winter  wheat  and 
barley have been favourable, as there have been large 
windows without substantial rainfall. Wheat and barley 
yields are forecast to be above the 5-year average but 
below last year’s record levels.

Turkey

In  central  Anatolia,  the  weather  in  July  was  slightly 
hotter  than  usual,  with  maximum  temperatures 
around  32  °C.  Higher  temperatures  occasionally 
occurred  along  the  western  Aegean  coast.  Locally, 
crops  benefited  from  sparse  rains:  up  to  20  mm. 
In  the  whole  Anatolia  region,  winter  crops  reached 
maturity  and  harvest  was  completed  by  the  end  of 
the  month  under  favourable  conditions.  In  Aegean 
regions (Adan), temperatures in July and August were 
generally slightly above average and maize develop-
ment is slightly further advanced than in an average 
year.  In  south-eastern  regions,  maximum  tempera-
tures were generally between 35 °C and 40 °C; how-
ever, such temperatures were mitigated by irrigation 
and no impact is expected on grain-maize yield. The 
winter  barley  yield  forecast  remains  slightly  above 
the  5-year  average,  while  the  forecast  for  winter 

wheat  is  revised  upwards  thanks  to  the  favourable 
end of season. The grain-maize yield is expected to 
be a record, slightly higher than last year.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 16

3.3. European Russia and Belarus

European Russia

During  the  review  period  (1  July-15  August),  near- 
normal  thermal  conditions  characterised  most  of 
European  Russia.  Only  the  areas  between  the  Black 
Sea  and  the  Caspian  Sea  presented  a  substantial 
positive  thermal  anomaly  (1-3  °C  on  average)  and  a 
number of hot days (Tmax > 30 °C) that exceeded the 
long-term average by 6-13 days. Abundant precipita-
tion occurred in the central and northern regions, while 
southern Russia experienced sparse rains in July and 
no  rain  at  all  during  the  first  half  of  August.  In  this 
cropping season, the biomass accumulation of winter 
wheat and spring barley has been exceptionally high 
because  of  the  near-optimal  water  supply.  The  yield 
forecast is near a record high. The analysis of remote 
sensing  images  confirms  these  positive  expectations. 
Harvesting has progressed well in southern Russia, but 
was slowed down by frequent and abundant rainfall in 
the central and eastern regions.

Belarus

Temperatures  were  slightly  cooler  than  usual,  in  con-
junction with higher-than-usual rainfall across the coun-
try during July. Since then, rainfall has been around the 
long-term average, with temperatures up to 9 °C higher 
than usual (e.g. the average temperature was 27 °C, com-
pared with the long-term average of 18 °C, and a max- 
imum temperature of 34 °C was recorded in Brest). Win-
ter wheat reached maturity at the end of July, and yield 
expectations are in line with the historical trend, slightly 
above  the  5-year  average.  Grain-maize  development  is 
in the second half of the grain-filling stage. The substan-
tially higher-than-usual temperatures recorded during the 
two first dekads of August have accelerated grain-maize 
development  and  could  result  in  early  maturation,  with 
consequent lower dry matter accumulation in kernels.

The  yield  outlook  for  maize  is  also  positive,  thanks  to 
sufficient  water  supply  during  the  flowering  and  early 
grain-filling period, which provided good conditions for 
biomass accumulation.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 17

4. Crop yield forecasts

TOTAL WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.60
5.48
8.53
4.28
-
5.88
7.94
7.54
3.77
3.07
3.89
6.94
2.83
5.01
4.72
9.11
3.96
4.66
5.95
4.20
-
8.89
4.53
1.82
3.50
6.53
5.08
4.95
7.87

5.35
6.22
6.71
4.75
-
6.50
7.64
7.21
2.77
3.53
3.77
5.30
2.35
5.50
5.38
9.54
4.20
4.36
5.07
4.30
-
8.01
4.54
2.31
3.93
6.32
5.19
5.92
7.89

5.61
5.34
8.34
5.03
-
5.53
7.69
7.49
3.52
2.57
3.82
6.85
2.97
5.42
5.07
9.61
3.93
4.60
5.60
4.20
-
8.92
4.56
2.14
4.00
6.56
5.25
4.96
8.07

+ 0.1
- 2.4
- 2.3
+ 18
-
- 6.0
- 3.3
- 0.6
- 6.7
- 16
- 1.9
- 1.4
+ 5.1
+ 8.1
+ 7.4
+ 5.5
-0.9
- 1.2
- 6.0
- 0.1
-
+ 0.4
+ 0.7
+ 18
+ 15
+ 0.4
+ 3.3
+ 0.2
+ 2.5

+ 4.8
- 14
+ 24
+ 6.0
-
- 15
+ 0.6
+ 4.0
+ 27
- 27
+ 1.3
+ 29
+ 27
- 1.4
- 5.6
+ 0.8
- 6.5
+ 5.5
+ 10
-2 .5
-
+ 11
+ 0.4
- 7.6
+ 1.7
+ 3.8
+ 1.1
- 16
+ 2.3

TOTAL BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.83
5.39
8.21
3.90
1.72
5.08
6.79
5.78
3.39
2.91
3.57
6.45
2.79
4.46
4.43
7.71
3.81
3.55
-
3.22
-
6.77
3.71
2.04
3.23
4.89
4.61
4.31
6.10

4.86
6.12
6.34
4.32
0.70
5.66
6.69
5.59
2.64
3.62
3.59
5.41
2.31
4.72
5.14
7.82
4.13
3.13
-
2.96
-
6.53
3.72
2.62
3.80
4.80
4.78
5.13
5.93

4.74
5.38
8.16
4.70
1.81
5.00
6.59
5.87
3.18
2.19
3.50
6.32
3.04
4.75
4.82
8.02
3.80
3.39
-
3.11
-
6.50
3.65
2.17
3.74
4.81
4.76
4.36
6.39

- 2.0
- 0.2
- 0.7
+ 21
+ 5.8
- 1.5
- 2.9
+ 1.6
- 6.4
- 25
- 2.0
- 2.0
+ 9.0
+ 6.3
+ 8.9
+ 4.0
- 0.2
- 4.4
-
- 3.6
-
- 4.0
- 1.6
+ 6.3
+ 16
- 1.6
+ 3.3
+ 1.1
+ 4.8

- 2.6
- 12
+ 29
+ 8.7
+ 159
- 12
- 1.4
+ 5.1
+ 20
- 39
- 2.4
+ 17
+ 32
+ 0.6
- 6.3
+ 2.6
- 8.0
+ 8.2
-
+ 4.9
-
- 0.5
- 1.7
- 17
- 1.5
+ 0.1
- 0.4
- 15
+ 7.8

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 18

SOFT WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.84
5.52
8.53
4.29
-
5.88
7.96
7.54
3.77
3.25
3.89
7.07
3.10
5.01
4.72
9.11
5.51
4.66
5.95
4.20
-
8.89
4.53
1.82
3.50
6.53
5.08
4.95
7.87

5.56
6.29
6.71
4.75
-
6.50
7.66
7.21
2.77
3.84
3.77
5.38
2.33
5.50
5.39
9.54
5.65
4.36
5.07
4.30
-
8.01
4.54
2.31
3.93
6.32
5.19
5.94
7.89

5.85
5.44
8.34
5.04
-
5.53
7.70
7.49
3.52
2.66
3.82
6.96
3.23
5.42
5.08
9.61
5.38
4.60
5.60
4.20
-
8.92
4.56
2.14
4.00
6.56
5.25
4.99
8.07

+ 0.2
- 1.5
- 2.3
+ 17
-
- 6.0
- 3.3
- 0.6
- 6.7
- 18
- 1.9
- 1.6
+ 4.0
+ 8.1
+ 7.6
+ 5.5
- 2.4
- 1.2
- 6.0
- 0.1
-
+ 0.4
+ 0.7
+ 18
+ 15
+ 0.4
+ 3.3
+ 0.9
+ 2.5

+ 5.1
- 14
+ 24
+ 6.0
-
- 15
+ 0.5
+ 4.0
+ 27
- 31
+ 1.3
+ 29
+ 39
- 1.4
- 5.7
+ 0.8
- 4.8
+ 5.5
+ 10
- 2.5
-
+ 11
+ 0.4
- 7.6
+ 1.7
+ 3.8
+ 1.1
- 16
+ 2.3

DURUM WHEAT (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.33
4.65
-
3.28
-
-
5.36
-
-
2.16
-
5.13
2.70
-
4.64
-
3.28
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.87
-

3.42
5.33
-
4.03
-
-
5.32
-
-
2.29
-
4.24
2.36
-
4.97
-
3.65
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.70
-

3.44
4.14
-
4.28
-
-
5.19
-
-
2.19
-
5.31
2.84
-
4.70
-
3.37
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.64
-

+ 3.3
- 11
-
+ 30
-
-
- 3.2
-
-
+ 1.4
-
+ 3.5
+ 5.4
-
+ 1.1
-
+ 2.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 4.7
-

+ 0.5
- 22
-
+ 6.1
-
-
- 2.4
-
-
- 4.6
-
+ 25
+ 21
-
- 5.6
-
- 7.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 19
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 19

SPRING BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.22
4.49
-
-
-
5.05
5.55
5.64
3.39
3.00
3.57
6.16
-
-
3.55
7.17
-
3.55
-
3.22
-
6.77
3.59
-
2.44
4.83
-
4.21
5.66

4.34
5.31
-
-
-
5.45
5.24
5.48
2.64
3.74
3.59
5.00
-
-
4.18
7.29
-
3.13
-
2.96
-
6.53
3.58
-
2.80
4.74
-
5.03
5.61

3.97
3.90
-
-
-
4.75
5.39
5.81
3.18
2.23
3.50
5.97
-
-
4.03
7.37
-
3.39
-
3.11
-
6.50
3.47
-
2.83
4.73
-
4.04
6.07

- 6.0
- 13
-
-
-
- 5.9
- 2.9
+ 2.9
- 6.4
- 26
- 2.0
- 3.1
-
-
+ 14
+ 2.9
-
- 4.4
-
- 3.6
-
- 4.0
- 3.2
-
+ 16
-2.1
-
- 4.0
+ 7.3

- 8.4
- 27
-
-
-
- 3
+ 2.8
+ 5.9
+ 20
- 40
- 2.4
+ 20
-
-
- 3.5
+ 1.1
-
+ 8.2
-
+ 4.9
-
- 0.5
- 3.1
-
+ 1.2
-0.2
-
- 20
+ 8.2

WINTER BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

5.68
6.08
8.21
3.90
1.72
5.17
7.20
6.46
-
2.37
-
6.56
2.79
4.46
4.74
9.16
3.81
-
-
-
-
-
4.23
2.04
3.52
6.09
4.61
4.73
6.88

5.54
6.59
6.34
4.32
0.70
6.13
7.07
6.17
-
2.66
-
5.53
2.31
4.72
5.31
8.64
4.13
-
-
-
-
-
4.46
2.62
4.13
5.77
4.78
5.37
6.43

5.73
6.29
8.16
4.70
1.81
5.61
6.94
6.15
-
1.89
-
6.42
3.04
4.75
5.01
9.07
3.80
-
-
-
-
-
4.29
2.17
4.04
5.94
4.76
5.20
7.04

+ 0.9
+ 3.5
- 0.7
+ 21
+ 5.8
+ 8.7
- 3.7
- 4.7
-
- 20
-
- 2.1
+ 9.0
+ 6.3
+ 5.6
- 0.9
- 0.2
-
-
-
-
-
+ 1.2
+ 6.3
+ 15
- 2.5
+ 3.3
+ 10
+ 2.4

+ 3.4
- 4.5
+ 29
+ 8.7
+ 159
- 8.4
- 1.9
- 0.3
-
- 29
-
+ 16
+ 32
+ 0.6
- 5.7
+ 5.1
- 8.0
-
-
-
-
-
- 3.9
-1 7
- 2.1
+ 2.9
- 0.4
- 3.1
+ 10

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 20

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

6.89
9.92
10.6
5.66
-
7.74
9.77
-
-
11.1
-
8.82
10.8
6.46
6.15
-
9.45
6.32
-
-
-
10.2
6.35
8.28
3.65
-
8.00
6.44
-

7.15
11.2
9.23
5.45
-
9.79
9.65
-
-
11.1
-
8.19
10.1
8.41
8.61
-
10.4
6.91
-
-
-
7.84
7.29
8.03
3.49
-
9.54
8.53
-

6.93
10.0
11.0
6.59
-
7.35
10.1
-
-
11.4
-
8.87
10.4
5.59
6.48
-
8.82
6.50
-
-
-
11.8
6.65
8.33
3.98
-
7.64
6.07
-

+ 0.6
+ 1.2
+ 3.0
+ 16
-
- 5.0
+ 3.8
-
-
+ 2.0
-
+ 0.5
- 3.5
- 14
+ 5.3
-
- 6.7
+ 2.8
-
-
-
+ 15
+ 4.7
+ 0.5
+ 9.1
-
- 4.5
- 5.8
-

- 3.0
- 10
+ 19
+ 21
-
- 25
+ 5.1
-
-
+ 1.8
-
+ 8.3
+ 3.0
- 34
- 25
-
- 15
- 5.9
-
-
-
+ 51
- 8.8
+ 3.7
+ 14
-
- 20
- 29
-

GREEN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

41.9
44.7
-
20.2
-
36.5
43.5
36.0
-
41.3
-
41.2
15.2
34.4
25.7
50.5
51.0
32.0
45.6
29.5
-
42.2
45.2
-
23.9
-
42.8
28.1
-

41.2
49.3
-
24.0
-
40.7
43.1
30.6
-
40.8
-
35.6
11.0
42.3
32.5
49.5
53.4
32.7
42.3
33.1
-
40.9
49.3
-
24.5
-
48.7
34.9
-

43.9
45.5
-
23.2
-
36.7
46.0
38.6
-
40.7
-
43.3
12.8
28.9
25.4
51.3
50.4
33.0
49.9
29.8
-
44.6
46.9
-
25.7
-
37.0
29.4
-

+ 4.8
+ 1.8
-
+ 15
-
+ 0.6
+ 5.9
+ 7.0
-
- 1.5
-
+ 5.3
- 16
- 16
- 1.2
+ 1.6
- 1.1
+ 3.1
+ 9.4
+ 1.2
-
+ 5.6
+ 3.8
-
+ 7.2
-
- 13
+ 4.4
-

+ 6.6
- 7.8
-
- 3.4
-
- 10
+ 6.8
+ 26
-
- 0.4
-
+ 22
+ 17
- 32
- 22
+ 3.7
- 5.5
+ 0.7
+ 18
- 9.8
-
+ 9.1
- 4.9
-
+ 4.8
-
- 24
- 16
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 21

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

RYE (t/ha)

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.89
4.49
-
-
-
4.88
5.71
5.97
3.06
2.01
3.19
4.75
1.87
-
2.77
-
-
2.44
-
3.48
-
-
2.91
0.85
-
6.19
-
3.70
3.49

3.90
5.05
-
-
-
4.98
5.56
5.80
2.61
2.50
3.38
3.97
1.48
-
3.03
-
-
2.38
-
3.94
-
-
2.89
0.90
-
6.12
-
3.78
1.90

3.81
4.66
-
-
-
5.22
5.54
6.24
2.82
1.58
3.01
4.63
2.06
-
2.83
-
-
2.48
-
3.47
-
-
2.91
0.80
-
6.15
-
3.90
6.05

- 2.2
+ 3.7
-
-
-
+ 7.0
- 3.0
+ 4.5
- 7.9
- 22
- 5.7
- 2.7
+ 9.9
-
+ 1.9
-
-
+ 1.8
-
- 0.1
-
-
-0.1
- 5.5
-
- 0.7
-
+ 5.6
+ 74

- 2.3
- 7.8
-
-
-
+ 4.8
- 0.4
+ 7.7
+ 7.8
- 37
- 11
+ 17
+ 39
-
- 6.6
-
-
+ 4.2
-
- 12
-
-
+ 0.6
- 11
-
+ 0.5
-
+ 3.4
+ 218

TRITICALE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

4.20
5.44
-
2.95
-
4.70
6.49
-
-
2.25
-
5.17
1.75
4.01
3.86
-
-
3.43
-
-
-
-
3.64
1.53
3.24
5.61
-
-
4.08

3.99
5.88
-
3.06
-
4.88
6.05
-
-
2.41
-
4.33
1.75
4.10
4.14
-
-
3.28
-
-
-
-
3.64
1.95
2.90
5.23
-
-
3.91

4.20
4.99
-
3.50
-
4.69
6.30
-
-
2.31
-
5.19
2.04
4.38
3.93
-
-
3.42
-
-
-
-
3.71
1.75
3.56
5.42
-
-
4.10

- 0.2
- 8.3
-
+ 18
-
- 0.3
- 3.0
-
-
+ 2.9
-
+ 0.4
+ 17
+ 9.1
+ 1.6
-
-
- 0.4
-
-
-
-
+ 2.0
+ 14
+ 10
- 3.4
-
-
+ 0.4

+ 5.1
- 15
-
+ 14
-
- 3.9
+ 4.0
-
-
- 4.3
-
+ 20
+ 16
+ 6.9
-5.1
-
-
+ 4.2
-
-
-
-
+ 2.0
- 10
+ 23
+ 3.5
-
-
+ 4.8

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 22

RAPE AND TURNIP RAPE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

3.24
3.26
4.15
2.58
-
3.41
3.90
3.88
2.02
2.36
1.49
3.29
-
2.88
2.95
-
2.37
2.39
-
2.61
-
-
2.88
-
2.54
3.10
-
2.88
3.40

3.00
3.58
3.44
2.95
-
3.46
3.45
3.10
1.46
2.58
1.54
2.77
-
3.11
3.44
-
2.57
2.60
-
2.83
-
-
2.68
-
2.84
2.89
-
3.46
3.07

3.27
3.22
4.31
2.87
-
3.17
3.59
4.08
1.95
2.34
1.51
3.65
-
3.08
3.09
-
2.57
2.52
-
2.85
-
-
3.00
-
2.69
3.05
-
3.35
3.42

+ 0.8
- 1.4
+ 3.9
+ 11
-
- 6.9
- 8.1
+ 5.2
- 3.6
- 0.7
+ 1.5
+ 11
-
+ 6.9
+ 4.9
-
+ 8.4
+ 5.3
-
+ 9.1
-
-
+ 4.3
-
+ 5.6
- 1.5
-
+ 16
+ 0.6

+ 8.8
- 10
+ 25
- 2.9
-
- 8.3
+ 3.8
+ 32
+ 33
- 9.1
- 2.0
+ 31
-
- 0.9
- 10
-
+ 0.0
- 3.1
-
+ 0.6
-
-
+ 12
-
- 5.4
+ 5.5
-
- 3.2
+ 12

SUGAR BEETS (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

72.0
71.8
77.2
-
-
64.2
72.1
60.9
-
92.5
38.1
87.4
-
52.1
57.2
-
55.6
54.1
-
-
-
80.6
55.9
-
37.5
63.9
-
56.8
71.0

74.4
81.3
72.5
-
-
67.8
76.2
51.3
-
95.7
37.3
83.9
-
NA
67.5
-
NA
61.3
-
-
-
77.8
65.8
-
39.9
65.0
-
70.2
66.0

74.7
68.8
82.3
-
-
65.4
73.8
59.7
-
95.8
37.9
89.0
-
53.6
59.6
-
54.7
54.3
-
-
-
85.6
57.2
-
43.3
65.3
-
60.2
74.3

+ 3.7
- 4.2
+ 6.5
-
-
+ 1.8
+ 2.3
- 2.1
-
+ 3.6
- 0.6
+ 1.9
-
+ 2.9
+ 4.2
-
- 1.5
+ 0.3
-
-
-
+ 6.2
+ 2.3
-
+ 16
+ 2.2
-
+ 5.9
+ 4.6

+ 0.4
- 15
+ 14
-
-
- 3.6
- 3.2
+ 16
-
+ 0.1
+ 1.5
+ 6.1
-
NA
- 12
-
NA
- 11
-
-
-
+ 10
- 13
-
+ 8.6
+ 0.4
-
- 14
+ 13

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 23

POTATO (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

32.6
31.4
45.9
13.3
-
26.5
44.1
41.8
-
30.9
26.6
42.7
25.0
17.2
24.1
-
26.2
16.8
-
18.6
-
43.4
23.8
18.7
14.3
34.3
-
-
42.1

33.9
36.2
38.2
13.6
-
29.9
44.4
42.4
-
30.7
27.1
39.0
27.5
NA
24.6
-
NA
16.0
-
18.8
-
42.9
28.5
18.8
14.2
35.7
-
-
45.0

33.3
30.1
45.0
14.9
-
26.9
43.4
41.0
-
31.5
26.7
44.2
26.1
17.9
23.8
-
25.4
17.3
-
19.5
-
43.7
23.3
19.0
15.2
35.0
-
-
44.9

+ 2.2
- 4.0
- 2.0
+ 12
⇠
+ 1.4
- 1.6
- 2.0
-
+ 2.2
+ 0.5
+ 3.3
+ 4.2
+ 4.2
- 1.1
-
- 3.2
+ 2.9
-
+ 4.7
-
+ 0.6
- 2.1
+ 1.9
+ 6.0
+ 2.2
-
-
+ 6.7

- 2.0
- 17
+ 18
+ 10
-
- 10
- 2.4
- 3.2
-
+ 2.9
- 1.5
+ 13
- 5.0
NA
- 3.3
-
NA
+ 8.1
-
+ 3.8
-
+ 1.9
- 18
+ 1.0
+ 6.7
- 2.0
-
-
- 0.3

SUNFLOWER (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

1.94
2.53
-
2.15
-
2.32
2.18
-
-
1.05
-
2.18
1.95
2.55
2.55
-
2.26
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.93
1.83
-
-
2.47
-

2.06
3.29
-
2.20
-
2.85
2.14
-
-
0.99
-
2.16
2.11
2.81
2.95
-
2.42
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.30
1.92
-
-
2.94
-

2.07
2.69
-
2.39
-
2.24
2.19
-
-
1.05
-
2.32
2.17
2.72
2.76
-
2.15
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.12
1.85
-
-
2.57
-

+ 6.3
+ 6.4
-
+ 11
-
- 3.7
+ 0.4
-
-
- 0.4
-
+ 6.2
+ 12
+ 6.5
+ 8.4
-
- 4.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
+ 21
+ 0.8
-
-
+ 4.2
-

+ 0.2
- 19
-
+ 8.6
-
- 22
+ 2.6
-
-
+ 5.4
-
+ 7.1
+ 3.0
- 3.2
- 6.4
-
- 11
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 14
- 4.0
-
-
- 13
-

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 24

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

WHEAT (t/ha)

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

3.66
2.69
3.69

3.71
2.71
4.21

3.69
2.85
4.01

+ 1.0
+ 5.8
+ 8.6

- 0.4
+ 5.1
- 4.8

BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

3.44
2.63
2.73

3.50
2.48
3.30

3.61
2.69
3.31

+ 5.0
+ 2.3
+ 21

+ 3.1
+ 8.3
+ 0.4

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2016

MARS 2017 
forecasts

%17/5yrs %17/16

BY
TR
UA

5.26
8.83
5.84

5.33
9.42
6.60

5.04
9.73
5.83

- 4.0
+ 10
- 0.2

- 5.4
+ 3.3
- 12

Note:   
Sources: 

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country.
 2017 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 10 August 2017). For EU Member States  
the reported humidity levels are generally between 65 and 70 %.
* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Belgium, Portugal, Sweden and the United Kingdom since  
recent data on yields were not available.
EU. 2012-2017 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term outlook data (dated July 2017, 
received on 31 July 2017),Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 2 August 2017) and EES (last update: 14 July 2017).
Non-EU. 2012-2016 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update:
2 August 2017), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD online.
NA = Data not available.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017  
 
 
  
 
 
 
25

5. Pastures in Europe — regional monitoring

Drought constrains biomass production in Italy

The conditions for pastures and fodder maize have deteriorated in many parts of northern Italy because of the lack 
of precipitation. Conditions were favourable for pasture growth in central and eastern Europe, with the exception of 
the south of the Czech Republic and north-eastern Austria. Grassland conditions improved in the Baltic Sea region.

Methodological note

The relative index of pasture productivity is a synthetic indicator of biomass formation based on the integration of 
the fAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) remote sensing product, for pasture areas at 
country level over a certain period of interest (in this bulletin, from 1 June to 10 August). The spatial aggregation 
from remote sensing image pixels to a country-level index was made using a pastures mask from the Common 
Agricultural  Policy  Regionalised  Impact  model  (CAPRI,  http://www.capri-model.org).  The  index  shows  the  relative 
position of the current season within the historical series from 2008 to 2016, and its values range approximately 
from 3 to 3. A value of 0 indicates that biomass production in the current season is similar to the long-term aver-
age. Values higher than 2 and below – 2 indicate that biomass production in the current season is close to, respect-
ively, the historical maximum and minimum of the 2008-2015 period.

Drought affects pasture growth in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy

Exceptionally high temperatures and lack of rainfall in 
the Dehesa area between Spain and Portugal in most 
of spring led to an early end of the grassland season, 
in June, about one month earlier than usual. In the Can-
tabrian  coastline  region  (Asturias,  Cantabria,  Galicia, 
País Vasco), weather conditions in spring and summer 
were  not  as  dry  as  in  the  rest  of  the  peninsula,  and 
pasture productivity since June is close to the medium- 
term average.
In most of Italy, the dry and hot conditions observed in 
late spring are persisting during summer, constraining 

pasture productivity. More recently, pasture conditions 
have particularly deteriorated in the north, in the prov-
inces  along  the  Po  valley  (e.g.  Alessandria,  Piacenza, 
Parma),  where  grasslands  and  fodder-maize  areas 
exhibit a severe decrease in biomass production. Only in 
the northernmost provinces close to the Alps do grass-
lands present a positive status, thanks to sufficient rain-
fall in July.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 26

Favourable conditions in north-western Europe

The weather has been more humid than usual in the 
UK  and  Ireland  since  mid  July,  with  temperatures 
slightly lower than usual. Therefore, soil moisture has 
significantly increased, favouring grassland productiv-
ity, and depicting a positive outlook for the second half 
of  August  and  September.  Nevertheless,  the  Pasture 
Productivity  Index  presents  negative  values  in  some 
areas (reddish colours on the maps) that do not corres- 
pond  to  a  decrease  in  biomass  production,  but  are  a 
consequence of an artefact in remote sensing images 
due to persistent cloudiness since mid July.
A  similar  artefact  caused  by  low  quality  of  remote 
sensing  observations  is  noticed  in  northern  France 
and Belgium, where cloudiness has been continuous 

since mid July. Cumulative precipitation in that period 
has  been  below  seasonal  values,  but  evaporative 
demand  has  also  been  lower  than  usual  because  of 
the  mild  temperatures.  Therefore,  pasture  conditions 
are  probably  close  to  the  medium-term  average,  but 
this can be confirmed only once clean satellite imagery 
is available.
In the southern half of France, biomass production in 
the main grassland areas is above the average, thanks 
to  sufficient  precipitation  and  slightly  higher-than-
usual temperatures in July and the first half of August. 
Weather  conditions  were  also  favourable  for  pasture 
growth  in  the  Netherlands,  following  abundant  pre-
cipitation in July. 

High biomass production in most of central Europe

Abundant  precipitation  and  temperatures  close  to 
seasonal  values  in  July  and  August  favoured  high 
biomass  production  rates  in  the  main  grassland  and 
fodder-maize  areas  of  Germany.  Soil  moisture  has 
increased — especially in the south-east (e.g. Nieder-
bayern, Oberbayern), where May and June were rather 
dry  —  which  also  suggests  a  positive  outlook  until 
the  end  of  the  summer.  Pasture  conditions  are  also 
favourable  in  Slovakia  and  the  north  of  the  Czech 
Republic, thanks to sufficient rainfall in July and the 
first half of August.

By contrast, in the south of the Czech Republic (Jihovýchod, 
Jihozápad)  and  the  north-east  of  Austria  (Weinviertel), 
exceptionally high temperatures since June have led to 
a sharp decrease in photosynthetic activity in grasslands. 
Heavy  rainfall  in  the  third  week  of  July  brought  some 
relief to the region, but the expectations for the second 
half of August remain below average.
In  central  and  western  regions  of  Austria,  grassland 
growth  is  exceptionally  high,  thanks  to  the  abundant 
rainfall  and  above-average  temperatures  registered 
since July.

Grassland growth accelerates in the Baltic Sea area

After a delayed start to the growing season due to un- 
usually  low  temperatures  in  April  and  May,  grassland 
growth increased progressively from June onwards in 
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and southern Finland. In 
all these countries, temperatures in July were slightly 
lower  than  usual,  but  sufficient  to  support  above- 
average  biomass  formation.  Soil  moisture  in  these 
countries  is  adequate  and  the  outlook  for  the  end  of 
August is positive. Pasture growth is also favourable in  
Sweden and Denmark, thanks to the substantial rain-

fall registered at the end of July and in the first week 
of August.
In Poland, central and northern grassland areas exhib-
ited  high  biomass  production  levels  from  July  to  mid 
August, favoured by humid weather conditions. By con-
trast, in the south-east (e.g. Podkarpackie, Małopolskie), 
cumulative  rainfall  since  July  has  been  exceptionally 
low, leading to emerging water stress. Precipitation in 
the second half of August will be needed to avoid sig-
nificant damage in that area.

Positive pasture season in Romania and Bulgaria, average conditions in Hungary

Above-average  temperatures  and  sufficient  precipita-
tion in Romania and Bulgaria have led to a significant 
increase  in  biomass  production  rates  since  June.  The 
status  of  grasslands  is  particularly  favourable  in  the 
Danube  basin,  where  soil  moisture  has  been  unusually 
high  thanks  to  abundant  rainfall  in  June.  Only  on  the 
border between Romania and Hungary (e.g. Arad, Timis, 
Észak-Alföld) has an early senescence of pastures been 
observed  since  mid  July,  due  to  the  hot  temperatures 
(daily maxima persistently above 30 °C) and scarce rain-
fall in June and July.

In central and western Hungary, grassland productiv-
ity has been close to the medium-term average. The 
considerable precipitation at the end of June and July 
was critical to prevent water stress after a rather dry 
end  to  the  spring.  Presently,  evaporative  demand  in 
grasslands is high, as weather conditions are unusu-
ally  warm.  Rainfall  in  the  second  half  of  August  will 
be needed to maintain the current average production 
levels.

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 27

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 28

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 6. Atlas 

Precipitation

29

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 30

Precipitation regime

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 Climatic water balance

31

Weather events

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 32

Crop development stages and precocity

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 33

Relative soil moisture

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 34

Precipitation and longest heatwave around certain crop development stages

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 35

Precipitation around harvesting

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017 36

JRC MARS Bulletins 2017

Date

Publication

23 Jan 
20 Feb 
27 Mar 

24 Apr 

22 May 

26 Jun 

24 Jul 

21 Aug 

18 Sep 

23 Oct 

27 Nov 

18 Dec 

Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis and 
yield forecast
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing, 
yield forecast and 
sowing conditions
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
yield forecast
and pasture analysis
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing,
yield forecast,
pasture update and
rice analysis
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing,
yield forecast and
pasture update
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing,
yield forecast and
pasture update 
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing, 
yield forecast and
 rice analysis
Agromet analysis,  
remote sensing and
yield forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
yield forecast and
sowing conditions
Agromet analysis 

Reference

Vol. 25 No 1
Vol. 25 No 2
Vol. 25 No 3

Vol. 25 No 4

Vol. 25 No 5

Vol. 25 No 6

Vol. 25 No 7

Vol. 25 No 8

Vol. 25 No 9

Vol. 25 No 10

Vol. 25 No 11

Vol. 25 No 12

Mission statement: as the science and knowledge service of the 
European Commission, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to 
support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the 
whole policy cycle.

K
J
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A
W
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1
7
-
0
0
8
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E
N
-
N

The current JRC MARS Bulletin  — Crop monitoring in Europe 
is a JRC–EC publication from MARS4CAST  
(JRC D5 unit — Directorate Sustainable Resources)

MARS Bulletins are available under:
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/Bulletins

Analysis and reports
B. Baruth, I. Biavetti, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani,
D. Fumagalli, S. Garcia Condado, R. Lecerf, R. Lopez,
A. Maiorano, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti,
M. Van den Berg, M. Van der Velde, C. Weissteiner,
A. Zucchini

Reporting support
G. Mulhern

Editing
B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer

Data production
MARS4CAST (JRC D5 unit), Alterra (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), 
VITO (BE) and CMCC (IT)

Contact
JRC D5/MARS4CAST
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu

*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Legal notice:
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of 
the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of 
this publication.

Disclaimer:
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and 
are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily 
reflect the official Commission position.

Technical note:
The LTA used within this bulletin as a reference is based on an archive 
of data covering 1975-2015. 

Printed by the Publications Office in Luxembourg

ISSN  Print  2443-826X

ISSN  PDF  2443-8278

MARS Bulletin Vol. 25 No 8 — 18 August 2017