European police science and research bulletin. Issue 16, Summer 2017.
Date: 2017-08-21
Institutions: European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Training
Subjects: EU police cooperation, criminology, fight against crime, police, scientific research, serial publication

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EUROPEAN POLICE  
SCIENCE AND  
RESEARCH BULLETIN

ISSUE 16
SUMMER 2017

 
EUROPEAN POLICE SCIENCE AND  
RESEARCH BULLETIN
ISSUE 16 
SUMMER 2017

Also published online:

https://www.cepol.europa.eu/science-research/european-police-science-and-
research-bulletin/latest-issue

Editorial board

Editors: Eduardo Ferreira, Escola Policia Judiciara, Portugal; Peter Neyroud, Institute 
of Criminology, Cambridge; Antonio Vera, German Police University, Münster.

Editorial and production support provided by: CEPOL staff

Published by: European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Training (CEPOL) 
(Director: Prof. h.c. Dr. Ferenc Bánfi)

Contributions or comments are to be sent to: research.bulletin@cepol.europa.eu

Submitted articles are subject to a blind peer-review process.

For guidance on how to publish in the European Police Science 
and Research Bulletin: 
https://www.cepol.europa.eu/science-research/bulletin/how-contribute

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the articles and contributions in the European 
Police Science & Research Bulletin are not necessarily those of the publisher or the 
editors or the European Police College. Sole responsibility lies with the authors 
of the articles and contributions. The publisher is not responsible for any use that 
may be made of the information contained therein.

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Contents

Abstracts  

Note from the editors  
Antonio Vera, Peter Neyroud, Eduardo Viegas Ferreira

Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious and Organised Crime 
Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017  
Eleonora Forte, Tamara Schotte, Sascha Strupp

 The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime  
Raquel Pastor, José María Blanco

From the Islamic State to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’: The evolution of the 
‘jihadisphere’ and the rise of the Lone Jihad  
Arije Antinori

 Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into Europe: An analytical exploration  
Paolo Campana

 What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives  
Patrick Perrot

 Pathways to Understanding Community-Oriented Policing in Post-Conflict 
Societies  
Jaishankar Ganapathy, Tor Damkaas

Community engagement: Considering adult-learning and problem-solving 
methodologies for police training  
Kenneth Murphy

 Investigative Strategy: The application of strategic principles to criminal 
investigations  
Michele Frisia

 3

 9

 13

 27

 47

 57

 65

 77

 87

 99

1

 Addressing emotions in police selection and initial training: a European study  
Rui Coelho de Moura, Nelson Campos Ramalho

 Crowdsourcing and policing: Opportunities for research and practice  
Antonio Vera, Torsten Oliver Salge

Planning and policing of public demonstrations: A case study  
Luis Manuel André Elias, Sérgio Felgueiras, Lúcia G. Pais

Between the Military and the Police: Public Security Police and National 
Republican Guard Officer’s attitudes to Public Administration Policies  
Nuno Miguel Parreira da Silva

Writing instruments inks: microspectrophotometry forensic analysis and 
characterisation   
Ana Cristina de Almeida Assis, Filipa Isabel Romano Inácio, João Sérgio Seixas de Melo, 
Carlos Farinha

Announcement  

 119

 143

 155

 169

 187

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Abstracts

Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious and 
Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017
Eleonora Forte, Tamara Schotte and Sascha Strupp

Europol used its singular intelligence capability as the information hub for criminal intelli-
gence in the EU to analyse and identify the key crime threats facing the EU today. Informed 
by  its  analysis  of  the  prevailing  threat,  SOCTA  2017  identifies  a  number  of  key  priorities, 
which, in Europol’s view, require the greatest concerted action by Member States and oth-
er actors to ensure the most effective impact. These include cybercrime, the production, 
trafficking and distribution of illicit drugs, migrant smuggling, organised property crime, 
and the trafficking in human beings (THB). In addition, Europol recommends focussing on 
three cross-cutting crime threats with a significant impact across the spectrum of serious 
and organised crime — document fraud, money laundering and the online trade in illicit 
goods and services. SOCTA 2017 also explores potential links between serious and organ-
ised crime and terrorism. The European Justice and Home Affairs Council will decide on the 
EU crime priorities at its meeting of June 2017.

The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime
Raquel Pastor and José María Blanco

ePOOLICE is the acronym for early Pursuit against Organised crime using environmental scan-
ning, the Law and Intelligence systems. It is a project co-funded by the European Union (EU) 
under its seventh framework programme for research and development (FP7). The project 
has several objectives: the rapid identification of new organised crime threats, the identifi-
cation of ‘weak signals’ by monitoring the external environment (political, economic, social, 
technological factors), as well as the identification of indicators. The project is based on sev-
eral methodologies aided by the development of technological tools. It has been tested in 
several scenarios, especially in human trafficking and cocaine trafficking.

3

What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives
Patrick Perrot

Predictive policing is more and more developed around the world. TV shows and fictions 
such as ‘the minority report’ or ‘Person of Interest’ spread a pre-crime effect that is, never-
theless,  very  different  from  reality.  Many  law  enforcement  develop  predictive  analysis  to 
find new opportunities against crime and it is generally dedicated to patrols. The Gendar-
merie Nationale in France carried out through the concept of criminal intelligence a way to 
provide relevant information to describe, understand and foresee crime at different scales: 
operational, tactical and strategic. The aim is to upgrade the process of decision-making. 
Because crime is neither a random process nor a deterministic process, some features ex-
ist to characterise it. Obviously, it is very difficult and probably not possible to identify all 
features linked to crime evolution or criminal behaviour. Nevertheless, some characteristics 
are not so complicated to model in a formal mathematical structure. So, in the age of Big 
Data, applications of predictive analysis can be overtaken by artificial intelligence (AI). It is 
very developed in fields like medicine, finance or transportation and could on one hand 
provide new perspectives to fight crime but also on the other hand raise questions for the 
future. Who will be the next organisation able to assure the best way to anticipate crime 
and criminal behaviour? AI could be defined as the capacity of a computer to model hu-
man reasoning. A grand challenge is opened for law enforcement but only if they are able 
to adapt their way of working to this new era. The scope of this paper is to describe the 
French  development  in  predictive  analysis  and  to  highlight  the  potential  use  of  artificial 
intelligence in different areas of criminal intelligence without neglecting the risk this new 
development.

From the Islamic State to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’: The evolution 
of the ‘jihadisphere’ and the rise of the Lone Jihad
Arije Antinori

The  terrorist  attacks  in  Orlando  (USA)  and  Magnanville  (France)  illustrate  the  globalised 
power  of  Jihadi  rhetoric  and  narrative  across  the  Web,  reshaping  reality  and  promoting 
the ‘Lone Jihad’. Since 2012, from Mohammed Merah to Omar Mateen, lone wolf terrorism 
is  characterised  by  the  capacity  to  attack  soft  targets  considered  as  the  main  threat  for 
the urban scenario. Law enforcement professionals have to explore the dynamics of the 
‘Jihadisphere’ by considering it not just as a repository but the core of the ‘culture of terror-
ism’ globally spread. The author explains the main phases of internet Jihadism evolution 
focusing  on  the  self-radicalisation  process,  the  rise  of  lone  wolf  terrorism  (LWT)  and  the 
Lone Jihad as a new scenario moving from the Islamic State ideology and propaganda to 
the ‘Islamic State of Mind’ (cyber-)experience.

4

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Abstracts

Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into Europe: An analytical exploration
Paolo Campana

In this paper I take a closer look at the recent trends in two key migrant smuggling routes 
into  the  European  Union  —  the  eastern  and  the  central  Mediterranean —  with  the  aim 
of identifying the analytical and empirical features of the markets for smuggling services. 
I show that these markets have the ability to expand considerably and often over a short 
period of time. I then argue that this is consistent with the presence of many competitive 
enterprises,  low  barriers  to  entry,  low  skills  and  (relatively)  low  capital  requirements.  The 
costs to the smugglers of monitoring agents and clients are also likely to be modest, par-
ticularly in comparison with human trafficking. The paper concludes by discussing some 
policy implications, including the adoption of land-based policies (regarded as more effec-
tive than naval operations).

Pathways to Understanding Community-Oriented 
Policing in Post-Conflict Societies
Jaishankar Ganapathy and Tor Damkaas

This paper aims to provide a brief outline of an ongoing research project that is funded 
by the EU for a period of 5 years. The project titled; ‘Community-Based Policing and Post-
Conflict Police Reform’ will address different aspects of Community-Oriented policing and 
police reform in post-conflict societies. Community-based policing holds promise but also 
entails challenges. A clear ambition for the project is to identify both differences and com-
monalities in community-oriented policing in post-conflict societies. Human Security will 
form an important backdrop for understanding key issues like post-conflict violence, peace-
building SSR and COP. In this paper we point to some dilemmas and perspectives regarding 
SSR, COP, Post-Conflict and Human Security. In addition the paper provides an overview 
of the role of the Policing Experts Network as project advisors and evaluators for mapped 
community-oriented policing training and education material.

Community engagement: Considering adult-learning and 
problem-solving methodologies for police training
Kenneth Murphy

Police engagement with communities is a central focus of many law enforcement agencies. 
The capacity to successfully integrate in such a way may come naturally to some, but the 
training through which new police officers are placed should also prepare them for any 
such organisational ethos. While many police training interventions follow traditional learn-
ing delivery platforms, the introduction of interventions which address and consider adult 
learning approaches and problem-solving supports can significantly contribute to the de-
velopment of skills and competencies which allow officers to engage even more effectively 

5

  
with  the  communities  they  serve.  The  inclusion  and  consideration  of  various  models  of 
learning in the police training and education process is essential, so that maximum benefit 
from the process can be afforded to learners, the organisation, and, the wider community. 
This article considers the inclusion of andragogy (Knowles, 1980) and the problem-based 
learning (PBL) approach to learning in police training, so that the development of skills nec-
essary for community engagement can be facilitated.

Investigative Strategy: The application of strategic 
principles to criminal investigations
Michele Frisia

Strategy is a wide collection of ideas and insights that have been used since time imme-
morial to face the ‘fog of war’. In the last century the key concepts of strategy have moved 
into many other fields, such as economics and mathematics. The analysis presented in this 
paper applied the concepts of strategy to criminal investigations. In both fields a need ex-
ists to face and fight against a conscious opposition to win. In order to apply them to mod-
ern criminal investigations, the paper borrowed ideas from historical masters of strategy: 
Sun Tzu and Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara; von Clausewitz, Lawrence ‘of Arabia’ and Mao Zedong; 
John Boyd and Miyamoto Musashi; Hagakure, 36 Stratagems, but also the doctrine of special 
forces. The paper analyses how investigations are affected by ‘friction’ and lack of resource; 
how detectives could proficiently use knowledge of the adversary, surprise, deceptions and 
stratagems; how speed, rhythm and timing, but also the adherence to principles of invis-
ibility, irreversibility and completeness, could help to improve the results of criminal investi-
gations. One of the aims of this paper is to show that the study of strategy could effectively 
increase the ability of investigators to solve cases. We hope that the paper will trigger a de-
bate about the incorporation of strategic thinking into investigative practice and training.

Addressing emotions in Police selection and initial training: a European study
Rui Coelho de Moura and Nelson Campos Ramalho

Police officers have a strong need to control their personal emotions. Research that is fo-
cused on emotions is scarce but greatly needed regarding core institutional practices such 
as police selection and initial training. The purpose of this exploratory study is to uncover 
the extent to which police selection and training comprehends and addresses emotional 
issues across Europe. We examined European police forces via CEPOL, surveying the selec-
tion  and  initial  training  of  career  police  personnel.  Data  were  collected  at  country  level 
with  cross  validation  to  ensure  institutional  representativeness.  Data  analysis  made  use 
of the MCA technique complemented by hierarchical clustering to identify patterns and 
emerging typologies. Transcripts from open-response questions concerning future trends 
in police selection and training were analysed for content. Findings show differing axes for 
official and officer selection practices and initial training, as well as dissimilar training hours 

6

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Abstracts

in psychological subjects. No discernible pattern emerged for either career regarding selec-
tion dimensions or psychology subjects in initial courses. These findings rule out a strategic 
alignment  between  selection  and  training  and  do  not  allow  one  to  foresee  a  common 
policy across countries and careers. An organisational research framework must emerge in 
order to tackle these issues.

Crowdsourcing and policing: Opportunities for research and practice
Antonio Vera and Torsten Oliver Salge

Crowdsourcing,  i.e.  digitally  enabled  processes  to  solicit  contributions  from  large  groups 
of external actors, is considered a promising approach to improve collaboration between 
citizens and organisations in both the private and public sector. In the present paper, we 
explain what crowdsourcing means and how it works. We then review the state of the art 
in this emerging field of research and examine the manifold opportunities, key challenges 
and main risks of its application in policing contexts.

Planning and policing of public demonstrations: A case study
Luis Manuel André Elias, Sérgio Felgueiras and Lúcia G. Pais

One of the biggest political events that took place in Portugal since the Carnation Revolu-
tion in April 1974 occurred on 15 September 2012. It was a time when the consequences of 
the financial crisis hit the majority of citizens, and the government announced a tax modi-
fication, along with several austerity measures. Accordingly, a group of citizens launched 
a national protest on the internet called ‘To hell with the Troika! We want our lives!’. A few 
days later, around 23 000 people said ‘I’ll go’ on the Facebook page. Given these kinds of 
groups, the police had some difficulty to find credible representatives to speak with to ad-
equately plan and execute the policing operation. This event, promoted by organisations 
outside the traditional political system, has constituted a challenge for the police regard-
ing  the  constitutional  rights  of  assembly,  demonstration,  and  security  and  public  peace 
maintenance.  This  demonstration  constitutes  the  case  study  to  be  presented.  The  main 
goals are: to describe the police planning and implementation procedures; to analyse the 
dos and don’ts; and to get some lessons to be learned. Using a qualitative approach, police 
documents, and interviews with police officers and commanders involved in the policing 
operation were analysed through a content analysis procedure. Triangulation of data sourc-
es and timeline was made. Results are presented in a timeline, enabling the assessment of 
the whole operation, mainly the management of the information flows and the uncertainty 
of the goings on in the field.

7

  
Between the Military and the Police: Public Security Police and National 
Republican Guard Officer’s attitudes to Public Administration Policies
Nuno Miguel Parreira da Silva

The main goal of the paper is to assess the Public Security Police (PSP) and the National 
Republican Guard (NRG) officers’ attitudes in the context of the recent changes of policies 
in the Portuguese public administration occurring in these two institutions. This moment 
assumes significant interest due to the fact that Portugal is redefining security and national 
defence strategies. From the theoretical point of view, this paper emphasises the impor-
tance of knowing a settled opinion of the police officers, as well as their attitudes/behav-
iours, in the institutional context, especially when exogenous factors cause organisational 
shifts. On the other hand, considering the complexity of socioeconomic reality, we tried 
to identify, understand and highlight how the police forces have distinct ways of looking 
and dealing with these changes of policy. On an empirical level, this paper contributes for 
an enrichment of literature review, emphasising the moderator role that officer’s percep-
tions play on the policy restructure of public administration, in the relation between the 
predicted variables analysed and their attitudes to their institutional changes. At the police 
policy level, suggestions and recommendations useful for adopting future strategies were 
also included for policymakers to consider.

Writing instruments inks: microspectrophotometry 
forensic analysis and characteriSation
Ana Cristina de Almeida Assis, Filipa Isabel Romano Inácio, João Sérgio Seixas de Melo and 
Carlos Farinha

An important aspect in the analysis of written documents is the type of materials used in 
questionable  documents.  The  present  study  aims  to  characterise  and  create  a  database 
of the absorption spectra in the visible region, obtained by microspectrophotometry (in 
reflectance mode), of inks from blue and black writing instruments, such as ballpoint pens 
and liquid ink pens (rollerball pens, gel pens, felt-tip pens and fountain pens). The study 
was performed with 167 ink samples of 36 different brands commonly used in national and 
international markets. To validate the possible use of the database, a preliminary blind test 
with 22 samples yielding a consistent and accurate match of 13 samples revealed that this 
technique has a good potential to obtain a list of inks with the same spectral characteristics. 
To evaluate the differentiation level of this method, the samples were grouped, based on 
the overlap of the first derivative spectra. As this grouping systematisation was found to 
present some limitations when we have a large number of samples, a multivariate analysis 
of  the  data  was  made.  For  this,  a  hierarchical  cluster  analysis  (HCA)  was  performed.  The 
discrimination power was calculated and compared with other studies.

8

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Note from the editors

Antonio Vera
German Police University, 
Münster

Peter Neyroud
Institute of Criminology, 
Cambridge

Eduardo Viegas Ferreira
Escola Policia Judiciara, 
Portugal

The present members of the editorial board of the European Police Science and Research Bul-
letin were appointed in August 2015 for a term of 2 years. Therefore, the current issue will be 
the last one published under our editorial guidance.

In the last 2 years, we have tried our best to achieve the aims of the Bulletin by publishing 
research papers, reviews and other information that extend the theory and contribute to 
improve practice in the fields of policing and law enforcement, in particular in European and 
international contexts. During this period, 69 manuscripts were submitted to the Bulletin. 
In order to minimise the length of the review process, we applied a two-stage process: the 
submissions were first reviewed for publication suitability in the Bulletin by the members 
of the editorial boards; if suitable, they were then assigned to one of the editors for han-
dling the double-blind peer review process. Of the 69 submitted manuscripts, 42 (approx. 
61 %) were ultimately accepted for publication (see Figure 1). Regrettably, 21 manuscripts 
(approx. 30%) had to be rejected, either because they did not meet the aims and scope 
of the Bulletin or because of the overall poor quality of the manuscript. The remaining six 
manuscripts are still under review. The length of time from submission to publication varied 
substantially. Most papers could be published within 6 months of the date of submission, 
which is quite fast for a journal with a double-blind peer review process. Unfortunately, for 
a few manuscripts, it took considerably longer, although we made every attempt to keep 
delays as short as possible.

99

Manuscripts	  s6ll	  
under	  review,	  6	  

Rejected	  
manuscripts,	  21	  

Figure 1 — 
Outcome of the 
review process

Accepted	  
manuscripts,	  42	  

With regard to the geographic origin of the manuscripts that were finally published in the 
Bulletin  (not  the  nationality  of  the  authors),  16  different  countries  and  both  Europol  and 
Interpol  are  represented  (see  figure  2).  Some  countries  were  obviously  more  productive 
than others in the last 2 years. The large number of publications from populous countries 
such as the United Kingdom or Germany is not surprising. The performance of Portugal 
and Finland, however, two countries with a relatively small population, is certainly remark-
able. The shortage of manuscripts from several countries with large police forces and a long 

Figure 2 — Geographic origin of published manuscripts

2	  

2	  

2	  
2	  

2	  

1	  

1	  
1	  

1	  
1	  

1	  
1	  

1	  
1	  

4	  

5	  

7	  

7	  

0	  

1	  

2	  

3	  

4	  

5	  

6	  

7	  

8	  

Number	  of	  submiPed	  manuscripts	  

Austria	  
Bulgaria	  
Croa7a	  
Denmark	  
Finland	  
France	  
Germany	  
Greece	  
Hungary	  
Ireland	  
Italy	  
Latvia	  
Norway	  
Portugal	  
Spain	  
UK	  
Europol	  
Interpol	  	  

10

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Note from the editors

research tradition in the field of policing, such as the Netherlands, is unsatisfactory. For the 
next years, one important aim of the Bulletin should be to receive more manuscripts from 
countries under-represented in Figure 2. This would not only support CEPOL’s mission to 
foster European and international law enforcement cooperation, but probably also improve 
the quality of the Bulletin.

Finally, we would like to highlight the relatively large number of female authors that have 
published an article in the Bulletin in the last 2 years (see Figure 3). In spite of the tradi-
tionally ‘male’ organisational culture of the police and the fact that woman are still under-
represented in most European police forces, 40 % of our authors were female. Nevertheless, 
there is still some upward potential, which may be realised by the new editorial board to 
be appointed shortly.

For this edition, the current editorial board picked papers from very different areas. The sub-
jects treated in this issue range from organised crime to the use of microspectrophotom-
etry in forensic analysis, and include such interesting and relevant topics such as smuggling 
of  migrants,  crowdsourcing,  internet  jihadism,  video  surveillance  or  artificial  intelligence. 
We wish the readers a pleasant journey through the ideas raised by the authors and many 
new insights from reading this issue of the European Police Science and Research Bulletin.

Female	  authors,	  
29	  

Figure 3 — 
Gender of 
authors

Male	  authors,	  43	  

11

  
Serious and Organised Crime 
in the EU: The EU Serious 
and Organised Crime Threat 
Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

Eleonora Forte
Tamara Schotte
Sascha Strupp
Europol, The Hague,
Netherlands

Abstract
Europol  used  its  singular  intelligence  capability  as  the  information  hub  for  criminal  intelligence  in 
the  EU  to  analyse  and  identify  the  key  crime  threats  facing  the  EU  today.  Informed  by  its  analysis 
of  the  prevailing  threat,  SOCTA  2017  identifies  a  number  of  key  priorities,  which,  in  Europol’s  view, 
require the greatest concerted action by Member States and other actors to ensure the most effective 
impact. These include cybercrime, the production, trafficking and distribution of illicit drugs, migrant 
smuggling, organised property crime, and the trafficking in human beings (THB). In addition, Europol 
recommends  focussing  on  three  cross-cutting  crime  threats  with  a  significant  impact  across  the 
spectrum of serious and organised crime — document fraud, money laundering and the online trade 
in illicit goods and services. SOCTA 2017 also explores potential links between serious and organised 
crime  and  terrorism.  The  European  Justice  and  Home  Affairs  Council  will  decide  on  the  EU  crime 
priorities at its meeting of June 2017.

Key words:
Organised crime, Europol, policy cycle, crime priorities, Justice and Home Affairs

1313

Figure 1 — Front page SOCTA

14

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

Introduction

SOCTA 2017 is Europol’s flagship product providing information to Europe’s law enforce-
ment community and decision-makers. It serves as the cornerstone of the EU Policy Cycle 
for  Serious  and  Organised  Crime  (1).  The  Policy  Cycle  ensures  effective  cooperation  be-
tween national law enforcement agencies, EU institutions, EU agencies and other relevant 
partners in the fight against serious and organised crime. In March this year the second edi-
tion of SOCTA was presented, following its inaugural edition released in 2013. SOCTA 2017 
delivers a set of recommendations based on an in-depth analysis of the major crime threats 
facing the EU. The Council of Justice and Home Affairs Ministers will use these recommen-
dations to define priorities for the coming 4 years. SOCTA 2017 is the outcome of the work 
of many contributors from law enforcement authorities in the Member States, in countries 
with strategic and operational agreements with Europol, our institutional partners in the 
EU and Europol. Europol is a key partner to the Member States in meeting security chal-
lenges by providing a highly developed platform for the exchange of criminal intelligence 
as well as analytical and operational support for some of the most complex international 
investigations in the EU to date. In drafting the SOCTA 2017, Europol harnessed this unique 
information position.

Europol has undertaken the largest-ever data collection on serious and organised crime in 
the EU. Europol relied on more than 2 300 questionnaires contributed by Member States, 
Europol’s operational and strategic partners outside the EU and our institutional partners 
as well as operational intelligence held in Europol’s databases to produce the most detailed 
assessment of the nature and scale of criminal threats facing the EU and its Member States 
yet.  Based  on  an  in-depth  analysis  of  this  data  and  a  methodology  (2)  endorsed  by  the 
Member States, Europol identifies the key threats from serious and organised crime facing 
the EU today and over the coming years.

The  article  below  provides  an  overview  of  the  main  threats  from  serious  and  organised 
crime to the EU.

1  The EU Policy Cycle for Serious and Organised Crime in the EU provides a robust framework that brings to-

gether the law enforcement authorities of the Member States, Europol and a wide range of multi-disciplinary 
partners in the fight against serious and organised crime. The Policy Cycle translates strategic objectives at 
the European level into concrete operational actions against serious and organised crime. The Policy Cycle 
is a methodology adopted by the European Union in 2010 to address the most significant criminal threats 
facing the EU. Each cycle lasts 4 years and optimises coordination and cooperation on the crime priorities 
agreed by all Member States.

2  As part of an iterative process, the SOCTA Methodology is continuously reviewed and refined by experts at 
Europol and from the law enforcement authorities of the Member States. The SOCTA Methodology allows 
Europol to understand and assess serious and organised crime holistically. SOCTA analyses and describes 
criminal markets and crime areas in the EU; the criminal groups or individual criminals carrying out these 
criminal activities; as well as the factors in the broader environment that shape the nature of serious and 
organised crime in the EU. Using a mixed methods approach of qualitative and quantitative analysis tech-
niques and a set of clearly defined indicators, Europol is able to identify and specify the most threatening 
criminal phenomena in the EU. The SOCTA Methodology was also reviewed by an academic advisory group.

15

Serious and organised crime in the EU

Serious and organised crime is a key threat to the security of the EU. Criminal groups and 
individual criminals continue to generate multi-billion euro profits from their activities in 
the EU each year. Some parts of the serious and organised crime landscape in the EU have 
changed drastically in recent years — in large part due to advancements in technology that 
have had a profound impact on the wider society and economy. Technology is then also 
a key component of most, if not all, criminal activities carried out by criminal groups in the 
EU and has afforded organised crime with an unprecedented degree of flexibility. This flex-
ibility is particularly apparent in the ease with which criminals adapt to changes in society. 
The internet, the multitude of online platforms and communication channels it hosts have 
had a huge impact on society, strengthening and transforming the economy, driving in-
novation and shaping social interaction. However, it is also a key enabler of criminal activity 
and plays a role in all types of criminality. The impact of technology on crime, however, ex-
tends beyond the internet and involves all kinds of technical innovation such as advances in 
drone technology, automated logistics, and advanced printing technologies. The vital role 
of technology for organised crime is clearly reflected in SOCTA 2017.

Criminal groups

Criminal groups are as varied as the markets they service and the activities they engage 
in.  In  many  cases,  criminal  groups  reflect  the  societies,  cultures  and  value  systems  they 
originate from. As societies across Europe become more interconnected and international 
in outlook, organised crime is now also  more  connected  and internationally  active  than 
ever before.

The criminal groups and individual criminals operating in the EU are highly diverse. They 
range from large ‘traditional’ criminal groups to smaller groups and loose networks sup-
ported  by  individual  criminals,  who  are  hired  and  collaborate  ad  hoc.  More  than  5  000 
criminal groups operating on an international level are currently under investigation in the 
EU. This figure does not necessarily reflect an overall increase in organised crime activity in 
the EU compared to 2013, when Europol reported on the activities of 3 600 internationally 
operating criminal groups in the EU. This increase is primarily a reflection of a much im-
proved intelligence picture. The increase also points to the emergence of smaller criminal 
networks, especially in criminal markets that are highly dependent on the internet as part 
of their modi operandi or business model. Overall, the number of criminal groups operating 
internationally highlights the substantial scope and potential impact of serious and organ-
ised crime on the EU.

The diversity of the criminal actors operating in the EU is also reflected in the structures of 
the criminal groups. 30 % to 40 % of the criminal groups operating on an international level 

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

feature  loose  network  structures.  An  approximate  20  %  of  these  networks  only  exist  for 
a short period of time and are set up to support specific criminal ventures. 76 % of the crimi-
nal groups reported to Europol for SOCTA 2017 are composed of six or more members. The 
fragmentation of the serious and organised crime landscape and the emergence of more 
groups  and  looser  networks  detailed  in  SOCTA  2013  did  not  affect  all  criminal  markets. 
The  fragmentation  of  criminal  markets  was  particularly  pronounced  in  relation  to  highly 
cyber-dependent criminal activities. This includes the large-scale online trade in counterfeit 
goods, firearms and some illicit drugs as well as different types of fraud such as card-not-
present fraud. Around these types of activities, an increasing number of individual criminal 
entrepreneurs come together on an ad hoc basis for specific criminal ventures or to deliver 
Crime-as-a-Service (CaaS). However, the majority of international criminal groups in the EU 
are hierarchically structured.

Poly-criminality

45 % of the criminal groups reported for the SOCTA 2017 are involved in more than one 
criminal activity. The share of these poly-criminal groups has increased sharply compared 
to 2013. During the migration crisis, the sustained high level of demand for smuggling ser-
vices  prompted  many  criminal  groups  previously  involved  in  other  criminal  activities  to 
expand their crime portfolio and become involved in the smuggling of migrants. Also the 
criminal groups involved in the trafficking of illicit goods are the most poly-criminal groups 
in the EU. These groups typically traffic more than one illicit commodity such as counterfeit 
goods or different types of illicit drugs. Poly-criminal groups most frequently combine the 
trafficking of cannabis and cocaine.

Criminal activities

More than one third of the criminal groups active in the EU are involved in the production, 
trafficking or distribution of drugs. The trafficking and distribution of cocaine and cannabis 
attract the largest number of criminal groups compared to other illicit drugs traded in the 
EU. The synthetic drugs market in the EU continues to expand, driven by large-scale pro-
duction  in  the  EU  and  the  exportation  of  various  substances  to  destinations  worldwide. 
Other key criminal activities for criminal groups in the EU include organised property crime, 
migrant smuggling, THB and excise fraud.

17

Figure 2 — Info graphic on criminal markets

Cybercrime

Cybercrime is a global phenomenon affecting all Member States and is as borderless as the 
internet itself. The attack surface continues to grow as society becomes increasingly digit-
ised, with more citizens, businesses, public services and devices connecting to the internet. 
Cybercrime encompasses a broad range of different criminal threats. However, the most 
threatening aspects of cybercrime involve various types of cyber-dependent crime such as 
the distribution of ransomware and malware, card-not-present fraud and the online trade 
in child sexual exploitation material.

The mature CaaS model underpinning cybercrime provides easy access to tools and ser-
vices across the entire spectrum of cyber-criminality, from entry-level to top-tier players, or 
any other party, including those with other motivations such as hacktivists or even terror-
ists. The development and distribution of malware continues to be the cornerstone for the 
majority of cybercrime. Information-stealing malware, such as banking Trojans, still repre-
sent a significant threat, although ransomware has become the leading malware in terms 
of threat and impact. Network intrusions that result in unlawful access to or disclosure of 
private data (data breaches) or intellectual property are growing in frequency and scale, 
with hundreds of millions of records compromised globally each year.

While neither offline nor online child sexual exploitation meet the criteria to be considered 
‘organised crime’ this is still considered a high priority crime within the Member States due 
to the degree of physical and psychological damage to one of society’s most vulnerable 
groups — children. The internet provides offenders and potential offenders with an en-
vironment in which they can operate with an enhanced level of safety and anonymity. In 
particular, there are a growing number of forums on the Darknet dedicated specifically to 
the production, sharing and distribution of child sexual exploitation material.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

Cybercrime is widespread and risks causing a loss of confidence in online business and/or 
electronic payments, which are vital for digital economies. The immediate impact of cyber-
dependent crime involves the damage and destruction of data, direct financial loss, lost 
productivity, theft of intellectual property, theft of personal and financial data, embezzle-
ment, fraud, post-attack disruption to the normal course of business, forensic investigation, 
restoration and deletion of hacked data and systems, and reputational harm. Payment card 
fraud results in substantial and direct financial losses.

Cybercrime continues to expand in scope and impact. Digital economies and societies are 
an attractive target for cybercriminals. Technological innovation holds exciting prospects 
for  businesses  and  citizens  alike,  but  also  creates  new  attack  vectors  for  those  criminals 
seeking to capitalise on these developments. Increasing internet connectivity by citizens, 
businesses and the public sector, along with the exponentially growing number of con-
nected devices and sensors as part of the Internet of Things will create new opportunities 
for cybercriminals. Cybercrime will remain a key threat for the foreseeable future.

Drug production, trafficking and distribution

The market for drugs remains the largest criminal market in the EU. 45 % of the criminal 
groups active in the EU are involved in the production, trafficking or distribution of vari-
ous types of drugs across Member States. The trade in drugs generates multi-billion euro 
profits for the groups involved in this criminal activity. The immense profits generated from 
the  trade  in  drugs  fund  various  other  criminal  activities.  The  production  capabilities  for 
synthetic drugs in the EU are expanding both in terms of the quantities produced and the 
number of production sites identified. Synthetic drugs are produced in the EU on an in-
dustrial scale and exported to destination markets across the world. Cocaine and cannabis 
continue to be trafficked wholesale in very large quantities to the EU and are distributed 
alongside heroin by poly-drug trafficking criminal groups in drug markets across Europe.

Drugs are responsible for a significant share of the trade in illicit goods via online platforms. 
Online trade is transforming the drugs trade, shifting the interactions between distributors 
from the street to online platforms. Technology also impacts on the production methods 
used to manufacture drugs in the EU. Technical innovation and the accessibility of sophis-
ticated equipment have allowed criminal groups to maximise the production output of in-
dividual sites. Large-scale cannabis cultivation sites are often maintained using professional 
growing equipment such as climate control systems, CO2 and ozone generators. Similarly, 
laboratories manufacturing synthetic drugs feature advanced equipment and production 
lines capable of producing synthetic drugs on an industrial scale. Drone technology is ex-
pected to advance, giving drones greater travel distance and the ability of carrying heavier 
loads, as well as making them more affordable. Criminal groups involved in drug trafficking 
will likely invest in drone technology for trafficking purposes in order to avoid checks at 

19

border crossing points, ports and airports. The production, trafficking and distribution of 
illicit drugs remains a key threat to the EU and this threat is only enhanced by the availability 
of advanced production equipment and the shift to online platforms used to trade these 
illicit drugs.

The production, trafficking and distribution of illicit drugs are the foundation of organised 
crime  in  Europe  involving  more  criminals  than  any  other  type  of  serious  and  organised 
crime in the EU. The criminals active in this area rely on established and highly successful 
business models, yet also display remarkable flexibility in adapting to law enforcement ac-
tion, new legislation, technological innovation and new opportunities created by transport 
infrastructure developments. The production, trafficking and distribution of illicit drugs re-
main key threats to the EU.

Migrant smuggling

The  migration  crisis  and  the  arrival  of  a  large  number  of  migrants  in  the  EU  have  trans-
formed migrant smuggling to a booming criminal business attracting criminal groups from 
across Europe and beyond. The scale of migrant smuggling activities in the EU is unprec-
edented and has increased significantly over recent years. Migrant smuggling is one of the 
most profitable and widespread criminal activities for organised crime in the EU.

The migration crisis has led to an expansion of the market for the services offered by mi-
grant smugglers and is expected to emerge as a catalyst for a substantial increase in the 
number of incidents of exploitation in the EU. Migrants represent a large and continuously 
growing group of potential victims vulnerable to promises of work by criminals even if this 
entails exploitation. While the migration crisis has not yet had a widespread impact on THB 
for labour exploitation in the EU, some investigations show that traffickers are increasingly 
targeting irregular migrants and asylum seekers in the EU for exploitation.

Migrant smugglers and their networks profit from the desire of irregular migrants to find 
safety and prosperity in the EU. They undermine the ability of law enforcement authori-
ties to control migration flows and generate significant profits which are used to expand 
their criminal activities across different crime areas. The concentration of irregular migrants 
in some locations boosts local markets for illicit commodities such as stolen phones and 
drugs  as  groups  involved  in  other  criminal  activities  seek  to  profit  from  their  presence. 
Some fraudsters may seek to exploit support systems for asylum seekers by trying to de-
fraud healthcare and housing schemes.

Armed conflicts, population pressure and poverty in regions close to Europe will sustain mi-
gration flows to the EU. Migrant smuggling networks supply services to virtually all irregular 

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

migrants arriving in the EU. Migrant smuggling will continue to be a key crime threat to the 
EU for the foreseeable future.

Organised burglaries and thefts (organised property crime)

Organised property crime encompasses a range of different criminal activities carried out 
predominantly by highly mobile criminal groups operating across the EU. Organised bur-
glaries, thefts and robberies as well as motor vehicle crime and the trafficking of cultural 
goods all fall into this broad category of criminal activity. However, the criminal groups car-
rying different types of property crime are also highly diverse. Despite the highly organised 
nature of MOCG operations, the organised crime involvement in property crimes remains 
under-investigated. In many cases, incidents of property crime are still classified as petty 
criminality without recognising the organised crime aspect.

Organised  burglaries  and  thefts  are  particularly  threatening  types  of  organised  property 
crime. Many Member States note a steady increase in the number of reported burglaries 
over recent years. Highly mobile criminal groups remain heavily involved in organised bur-
glaries and thefts across the EU. The MOCGs involved in this crime area have become even 
more mobile in recent years operating across the EU and quickly moving between different 
Member States.

Online  marketplaces  have  made  it  easier  to  advertise  and  sell  stolen  goods.  These  mar-
ketplaces are now used extensively to sell stolen goods, particularly low-bulk high-value 
goods such as phones, tablets and other electronic equipment. While most burglaries only 
require the use of rudimentary tools such as screwdrivers or crowbars, criminal groups also 
use increasingly sophisticated technologies and techniques to carry out burglaries, such 
as frequency inhibitors to disable alarm systems. Criminal groups make use of various on-
line services to facilitate their burglaries. This includes checking on social media platforms 
whether individuals are away from targeted residences, scouting targeted neighbourhoods 
using free online navigation tools and fencing goods via online marketplaces.

Technology is also providing criminals with new methods of intrusion into ATMs and similar 
systems. As part of a new modus operandi, attackers drill or burn small holes into the ATM 
case in order to reach the ATM’s computer hardware components. The attackers use this 
access to intrude into ATM’s operating system and force it to dispense cash. Criminal groups 
involved in the theft of motor vehicles increasingly rely on high tech tools to gain access 
to vehicles and to overcome security measures. Information on how to overcome car secu-
rity systems can be easily accessed via online messaging boards and websites. As vehicles 
increasingly rely on keyless entry systems and other new technologies to aid navigation, 
driving and entertainment, this trend is set to intensify over the coming years.

21

Trafficking in human beings

THB for sexual and labour exploitation involves the recruitment, transportation, harbouring 
and  exploitation  of  victims.  The  involvement  of  criminal  groups  in  THB  for  labour 
exploitation is increasing in the EU. Economic disparity is a key driving force behind THB for 
labour exploitation. Criminal groups cater to the growing demand for cheap labour across 
many Member States and have access to a large number of potential victims.

Migrants represent a large and continuously growing group of potential victims susceptible 
to promises of work by criminals even if this entails exploitation. Europol data shows that 
THB for labour exploitation involves victims of more than 58 nationalities exploited in the 
EU. There has been little change in the types of industries featuring labour exploitation. Vul-
nerable sectors include agriculture, catering, cleaning, construction, entertainment, fishing, 
hospitality, retail and transportation. The involvement of organised crime in orchestrating 
THB  for  labour  exploitation  continues  to  be  under-investigated  in  many  Member  States. 
While the migration crisis has not yet had a widespread impact on THB for labour exploita-
tion in the EU, some investigations show that traffickers are increasingly targeting irregular 
migrants and asylum seekers in the EU for exploitation.

Traffickers continue to rely on the use of social media, VoIP and instant messaging applica-
tions. These technologies are employed at all stages of the trafficking cycle including the 
recruitment of victims, advertisement of services, and the monitoring of victims. In addition 
to recruitment via social media and online platforms, victims continue to be recruited by 
word-of-mouth and by exploiting family connections.

Cross-cutting criminal threats

Document fraud, money laundering and the online trade in illicit goods and services are 
the engines of organised crime. These cross-cutting criminal threats enable and facilitate 
most, if not all, other types of serious and organised crime. The business models of criminal 
groups active across the spectrum of serious and organised crime rely on document fraud 
and  money  laundering  to  maintain  their  criminal  enterprises.  Europol  then  also  strongly 
believes that disrupting document fraud, money laundering schemes and the online trade 
in illicit goods and services will significantly reduce the ability of criminal groups to grow 
their businesses and expand into new markets.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

Figure 3 — Info graphic on engines of crime

23

Criminal finances and money laundering

Most criminal groups and individual criminals active in serious and organised crime in the 
EU are driven by the imperative to generate and maximise profits. Criminal finance schemes 
allow criminals to transfer, launder and invest criminal proceeds in the legitimate economy 
and in their own criminal enterprises. These schemes utilise both traditional and innovative 
techniques.  Traditional  methods  include  the  smuggling  of  cash,  the  use  of  Hawala  and 
offshore tax havens as well as trade-based money laundering, the investment in real estate, 
art and high-value goods. Cash-intensive businesses and gambling services continue to be 
used to launder criminal proceeds.

Criminal finance has benefitted greatly from technological innovation such as the shift to 
online solutions for most financial services provided for the legitimate economy. The emer-
gence of new forms of payment such as cryptocurrencies and the appearance of a plethora 
of highly diverse and often difficult to regulate online payment and banking platforms has 
afforded  criminals  with  new  ways  of  financing  and  expanding  their  criminal  businesses. 
The rapid processing of transactions across multiple jurisdictions and the proliferation of 
encryption and anonymisation tools represent some of the most significant obstacles en-
countered in increasingly complex and technically demanding financial investigations.

Some criminal networks, also called money laundering syndicates, have specialised in op-
erating complex criminal finance schemes providing money laundering services to criminal 
groups active across serious and organised crime. Their clientele include criminal groups 
involved in cybercrime, different types of fraud, drug trafficking, migrant smuggling, and 
THB. In some cases, the funds handled by these syndicates also benefit terrorist groups and 
may be used to finance terrorist acts.

Document fraud

Document fraud is a key facilitator for organised crime. Fraudulent documents are used and 
traded  extensively  among  criminal  groups  and  represent  a  significant  obstacle  in  the  fight 
against serious and organised crime. Fraudulent documents are multi-purpose criminal tools 
and each document can be used repeatedly to support different criminal activities. The pro-
duction and use of fraudulent documents has also been linked to terrorist actors. Increasingly, 
fraudulent documents are traded online. Online marketplaces are used by criminals to display 
the range of genuine documents on offer and allow document forgers to receive orders di-
rectly from clients. Organised criminals have been quick to exploit the shift to online solu-
tions for many services in the legitimate economy such as registering companies or obtaining 
various documents from public authorities. The availability of technology and raw materials 
traded on the Darknet has resulted in enhanced and more accessible fraudulent documents. 
This new generation of high quality documents is difficult to detect during checks.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Serious and Organised Crime in the EU: The EU Serious 
 and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) 2017

The online trade in illicit goods and services

Online  platforms  operating  in  the  legal  economy  have  had  a  profound  impact  on  busi-
ness models, shopping experiences and customer expectations. The multiplication of sales 
platforms makes online trade easier, more accessible and cheaper. This development has 
been mirrored in the online trade in illicit goods as criminals, like legitimate traders, look 
to opportunities online to grow their businesses. Virtually all illicit commodities are now 
traded online either on dedicated criminal online marketplaces or by exploiting otherwise 
legal online platforms. The number of goods on offer and frequency with which new prod-
ucts become available indicate that the online trade in illicit goods is thriving and highly 
dynamic.

Firearms, in particular, are increasingly traded on online platforms including Darknet mar-
ketplaces.  Both  individual  criminals  and  criminal  groups  obtain  illegal  firearms  via  these 

Figure 4 — Info graphic on online trade

25

markets. Online trade allows individuals with no or limited connections to organised crime 
to procure firearms. The online trade in illegal firearms via various platforms is set to expand 
further over the coming years.

All types of commodities such as counterfeit medicine, cannabis, cocaine, heroin, synthetic 
drugs  and  new  psychoactive  substances,  specimens  of  endangered  species,  excise  to-
bacco,  counterfeit  currency,  cultural  goods,  stolen  vehicle  parts  and  accessories,  as  well 
as  compromised  payment  card  data  are  sold  and  purchased  online.  In  addition  to  illicit 
commodities,  criminal  services  are  also  traded  online.  The  expanding  crime-as-a-service 
business model, prevalent in many crime areas, provides customers with access to a wide 
range of criminal services. Online trade will continue to prompt organised crime groups to 
develop new business models that increase profits and further reduce the risk of detection.

As the engines of organised crime, criminal finance, document fraud and the online trade in 
illicit goods and services will continue to drive organised crime forward. The online trade in 
illicit goods and services will increasingly shape business models and dictate the way suc-
cessful organised crime groups operate. Europol recommends targeting these key cross-
cutting threats to disrupt organised crime groups active across the landscape of serious 
and organised crime in the EU.

The full report can be accessed on the Europol website at: 
https://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/european-union-serious-
and-organised-crime-threat-assessment-2017

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017 
 The ePOOLICE Project: 
Environmental scanning 
against organised crime

Raquel Pastor
ISDEFE, Madrid,
Spain
José María Blanco
Centre of Analysis and Foresight, Guardia Civil, Madrid,
Spain

Abstract
ePOOLICE is the acronym for early Pursuit against Organised crime using environmental scanning, the 
Law and Intelligence systems. It is a project co-funded by the European Union (EU) under its seventh 
framework programme for research and development (FP7). The project has several objectives: the rapid 
identification of new organised crime threats, the identification of ‘weak signals’ by monitoring the 
external environment (political, economic, social, technological factors), as well as the identification of 
indicators. The project is based on several methodologies aided by the development of technological 
tools. It has been tested in several scenarios, especially in human trafficking and cocaine trafficking.

Key words:
Organised crime, environmental scanning, early warning, future trends

Introduction

ePOOLICE is the acronym for early Pursuit against Organised crime using environmental scan-
ning, the Law and Intelligence systems. It is a project co-funded by the European Union (EU) 
under its seventh framework programme for research and development (FP7). More pre-
cisely, it was granted as a result of the fifth security research call of this programme (FP7-
SEC-2012-1) as an answer to a topic included in the activity Security and society and within 
the area Foresight, scenarios and security as an evolving concept. The topic addressed by the 
ePOOLICE project was ‘developing an efficient and effective environmental scanning system as 

2727

part of the early warning system for the detection of emerging organised crime threats’. There-
fore, this is the project’s main objective (3).

According to the EU request, the project’s objectives were:

 § to conduct research into technologically-/actor-driven systems and tools which support 
environmental scanning to enable the rapid identification and qualification of new or-
ganised crime threats through the systematic monitoring of the external environment 
for the detection of ‘weak signals’ of upcoming opportunities and threats;

 § to scan the environment to feed new and emerging threats into the serious and organ-

ised crime threat assessment processes;

 § to identify a combination of technological resources and human actors in order to im-
prove the process of detecting and selecting new OC threats that warrant EU level analy-
sis and EU-wide responses;

in order to improve

 § the process of detecting and selecting new organised crime threats at EU level;

 § the effectiveness of the end-users (LEAs, criminological institutes and private business-

es);

 § the ability of strategic decision-makers to counterbalance detected upcoming threats 

before they materialise;

 § the understanding of the technologies and trends, leading to the strategic planning into 

security issues of all stakeholders.

Methodological Approach

Environmental scanning (ES) is the main objective and subject of the ePOOLICE project, 
and therefore, an agreement regarding its definition and scope needed to be reached in 
order to achieve a common understanding among all parties within the project, so all ef-
forts could be coordinated towards a common and successful goal.

After some internal discussion the agreed definition of environmental scanning (ES) to be 
used in the scope of the ePOOLICE project was adapted from Maree Conway from Thinking 
Futures, as follows: ‘the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment 
to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on 
Organised Crime’ (Conway 2016).

(3)  Further information about the project can be retrieved from: https://www.epoolice.eu and http://cordis.

europa.eu/project/rcn/106659_en.html

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

The environmental scanning fits into the strategy development and implementation cy-
cle, which consists of scanning, thinking, making decisions and planning. Though all steps 
are interdependent, each one of them needs to be considered as a separate process. We 
understand  environmental  scanning  as  a  systematic  and  formal  process  with  two  main 
objectives:

 § Understanding the nature of change in the environment;

 § Identifying opportunities, challenges and future developments.

Its main goal, however, is to provide an answer to the questions raised (i.e. what is happen-
ing and what could happen), through the determination of what we know and what we do 
not know about a concrete phenomenon, from a strategic perspective. The Pestle model 
has traditionally been a part of environmental scanning and monitoring activities in most 
organisations. It is a process of analysis that aims to study the political, social, economic, 
technological,  legal  and  environmental  issues  affecting  a  sector  or  a  field,  configured  as 
a first step in many future studies (Bensoussan and Fleisher, 2013). This method is some-
times called STEEP. It is a way to break the general environment into sub-categories or seg-
ments, aiding the following of an analytic process in which we can research each of the 
components of a phenomenon with strategic management purposes.

The  process  involves  the  understanding  of  each  of  the  mentioned  segments  as  well  as 
their effects on the object of the study, answering the following questions: What are the 
current key events and trends in this segment? What evidence supports the existence of 
these trends? How have these trends evolved? What are the nature and degree of change 
on turbulence within trends? How do these trends affect organised crime? Pestle repre-
sents a ‘System of Systems Analysis’ approach (SoSA), also known as a ‘Federation of Systems’ 
(Svendsen, 2015).

Scanning is the first step. It provides information about what is happening in the external 
environment, about what is changing, and about what issues require attention on a contin-
uing basis. This information, after being evaluated and analysed, has a strategic purpose, as 
it contributes to creating the “big picture” of the criminal phenomenon that will finally will 
allow the adoption of strategic, tactical and operative decisions. To identify these options, 
a good knowledge about external drivers of change is needed. This implies the monitor-
ing of events that can be grouped in trends, so that drivers, which move trends in certain 
directions, can be detected and the changes can be analysed. Major changes in the envi-
ronment induce changes in crime, so it becomes essential for law enforcement agencies 
to scan this environment and to look for its evolution in order to be best prepared for the 
emerging organised crime threats.

Environmental scanning does not analyse known crime trends but non-criminal drivers of 
change, and looks for their potential impact in criminal trends in the future. This is the rea-

29

  
son to follow the Pestle (Politics, Economics, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environment) 
model  to  assess  key  variables  that  define  the  factors  of  change.  Using  a  model  such  as 
Pestle provides a starting point for the ES. A Pestle analysis provides key information for risk 
analysis. Criminal phenomena are continuously evolving, and organised crime groups have 
the abilities to adapt their activities, objectives, modus operandi, detecting opportunities 
in  the  political,  economic,  social  and  technological  landscape.  For  example,  a  Pestle  ap-
proach is largely adopted by the FATF methodology for money laundering risk assessment, 
or researching on terrorism (Blanco and Cohen, 2014). A methodology that structures basic 
information and enables the application of SWOT analysis, risk analysis or trend analysis.

Accordingly, as stated in the ePOOLICE Description of Work (DoW), the ePOOLICE environ-
mental scanning systems provides a systematic overview of the surrounding environment, 
so that ‘weak signals’ that may trigger a heavy and oriented situation awareness computa-
tion can be detected in order to better appreciate and anticipate the emerging organised 
crime. H. Igor Ansoff introduced the idea of ‘weak signals’ in his famous paper on strategy: 
‘Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals’,  published  in  1975.  Ansoff  wrote: 
“We  might  call  this  graduated  response  through  amplification  and  response  to  weak  signals, 
in contrast to conventional strategic planning that depends on strong signals. Such a practical 
method for planning a graduated response can be developed. The first task is to explore the range 
of weak signals that can be typically expected from a strategic discontinuity” (Ansoff 1975: 23).

Ansoff defines weak signals as signals that have a higher degree of uncertainty based upon 
human assessment of uncertainty. The concept of weak signals entails that the weak sig-
nal is an antecedent to the event. However, factors that are not necessarily understood in 
a conditional or causal fashion can also be identified. Researchers have proposed different 
definitions for this concept. Ponomareva, J. V. and Sokolova, A. V. (2015) collect the existing 
definitions of weak signals (WS), and propose the following one: “[Weak signals are] events 
that characterise a high degree of uncertainty and lag time, there is at the start no complete and 
relevant information about their consequences, but they indicate future changes and can lead to 
serious transformations in the current social and economic situation; sometimes WS may be har-
bingers of disruptive events or witnesses to new possibilities”(p.4). Of course, following Hiltunen 
(2008), there are objective weak signals which can be applied in all areas and subjective 
weak signals which are more important for specific fields.

An example of this in the organised crime field could be the development of 3D printers, 
which could be used to produce firearms. We know that it is possible now to manufacture 
metal firearms, being more expensive to get the printer than to purchase a firearm in the 
dark market. So, from an early warning model, we can establish an indicator to monitor the 
cost of 3D printers. Ponomareva and Sokolova (2015) offer an example applied to bioprint-
ing.  Weak  signals  are  the  way  in  which  we  can  improve  present  and  future  risk  analysis, 
anticipating the alert about possible impacts, although in the present moment we cannot 
establish a high probability.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

An environmental radar scans a virtual environment represented by huge volume of open 
source information describing: tangible and intangible resources (water, petrol, climate, cul-
ture, etc.); political, legal and social organisations; technological advances and innovation.

The described ES concepts are directly related to the Europol definitions of Crime Enablers 
and Crime-Relevant Factors (CRF) in its SOCTA (2013) methodology and reports: ‘Crime ena-
blers are a collection of “Crime-Relevant Factors” (CRF) that shape the nature, conduct and im-
pact of serious and organised crime activities. CRF affect crime areas and the behaviour of both 
criminal actors and their victims. They include facilitating factors and vulnerabilities in society 
creating opportunities for crime or crime-fighting. They are the instruments by which serious and 
organised crime operates and are common to most areas and most groups. Certain enablers are 
particularly relevant for multiple crime areas and provide opportunities for different OCGs in their 
various activities. These horizontal crime enablers include the economic crisis, transportation and 
logistical hotspots, diaspora communities, corruption, legal business structures (LBS) and profes-
sional expertise, public attitudes and behaviour, risks and barriers of entry to criminal markets, the 
internet and ecommerce, legislation and cross-border opportunities, identity theft and document 
fraud and violence (…). CRF are facilitating factors and vulnerabilities in the environment that 
have an influence on current and future opportunities or barriers for OCGs and SOC areas. CRF 
are analysed via horizon scanning, which aims to identify future trends in society and future crime 
threats’ (Europol 2013:11)

The  ePOOLICE  project  identifies  these  CFR  through  the  use  of  environmental  scanning, 
weak signals, and trend analysis.

Trend analysis aims to identify trends and to detail the forces that are influencing, in what 
direction and at what speed (i.e. the intensity of change). A trend is a pattern of observable 
change, a set of processes that are not easily changed and that will continue in the future. 
Trends are affected by drivers. A driver is an agent or a factor that guides a change. From 
each driver, it is possible to identify the indicators that help measure and assess its impact. 
This fosters a model to follow up on a matter that is also complemented with a determina-
tion of the effects on the phenomenon researches as well as their impact and probability 
of occurrence. The paper written by Blanco and Cohen (2014) on the future of the fight 
against  terrorism  in  Europe  is  an  example  that  is  based  on  the  model  chosen  by  RAND 
Europe (2013) for the analysis of the future of society in Europe in 2030, and on Lia’s model 
(2005) to study the future of terrorism, as well as the models used by the Proteus program 
of the American intelligence services. A similar process was followed by Europol to point 
out  the  future  drivers  of  organised  crime  (Europol,  2015).  For  example,  when  addressing 
cocaine trafficking, this was the preliminary approach developed during the ePOOLICE pro-
ject, pointing out that each one of these key factors needed to be defined, specifying how 
they were operationalised in the context of cocaine trafficking. The proposed indicators are 
not the only existing ones, but reasons of efficiency in the project made it advisable to take 

31

  
existing  indexes  of  general  acceptance,  keeping  in  mind  that  sometimes  perhaps  these 
indexes could not be the best way to measure a specific variable.

 § Economic: markets evolution (concentration, actors), prices, profits, drug demand, drug 

supply, economic crisis, inequality, poverty, economic freedom ...

 § Indicators: Economic Freedom Index (The Heritage Foundation), Unemployment rates, 

Gini index, GDP …

 § Political: weak  or  failed  states,  corruption,  geography  (border  control,  mountains …), 
judiciary system, armed conflicts, behaviour of elites, means shortage, political system, 
links with terrorism, violence ...

 § Indicators: Corruption Index (Transparency International), Democracy Index (EIU), Frag-
ile States Index (FP) and its components, Global Peace Index, Global Terrorism Index, 
number of …, % of …

 § Social: demography (age, sex, nationalities …), migrations, education level, human de-

velopment, unemployment, health system, urbanisation …

 § Indicators: urbanisation trends, Human development index (UN) …

 § Technological:  internet  use  for  trafficking,  drones  (for  transportation,  for  example 
through borders), deep web, Darknets, Black markets (Silk road) innovation, laboratories, 
online payments, bitcoin...

 § Indicators: internet penetration, number of users of applications, laboratories detected, 

amount of payments online …

 § Legal: legal system, judicial system, prison …

 § Indicators: new legal frameworks alerts, number of prison population …

 § Crime: age, sex, nationalities, type of crime, day of the week, hour, place, modus oper-

andi, means used, media seized …

 § Indicators: a set of criminal statistics.

The methodological approach used in ePOOLICE was based on the concepts established 
by Europol, with the framework of an environment scanning system:

Two ways of managing open sources to identify new trends were proposed:

 § Semantic  search  in  internet.  The  objective  is  not  only  to  find  information  but  also  to 

interpret it in a way that could facilitate the work of security analysts.

 § The establishment of an indicators system.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

Figure 1 — ePOOLICE Environmental Scanning System

Semantic search
Semantic search seeks to improve search accuracy by understanding the searcher’s intent 
and the contextual meaning of terms as they appear in the searchable dataspace (series of 
databases), whether on the Web or within a closed system, in order to generate more rel-
evant results. Semantic search systems take into consideration several points, including the 
contexts of search, location, intent, variation of words, synonyms, generalised and special-
ised queries, concepts matching and natural language queries to provide relevant search 
results (Tony, J., 2012). Semantic searches allow the direct classification of the collected in-
formation in order to match entities from other pieces of information. It uses several meth-
odologies: concept mapping, graph patterns, logics, and fuzzy relations and fuzzy logics.

The first key step was the identification of key terms. A literature review facilitated several 
sources, like dictionaries and glossaries. It is very important to point out the use of slang, 
and the need to introduce these kind of specific terms to collect information and detect 
trends.  For  example,  in  regards  to  cocaine  trafficking,  we  identified  a  broad  selection  of 
terms in slang and different languages: “24/7, aspirin, Charlie, Carrie, Otoban, Dinamite, BLO, Big 
C, Diablo, Dios, Devil’s Dandruff, Devil’s Drug, Devil’s Dick, Paradise, Polvere di stelle, Polvo Feliz, 
Polvo de Oro, Heaven Dust, Haven Dust, Happy Powder, Happy Trail, Dream, Beam, Soplo, Sod-
dio, Angie, Gulosa, Ice, Icing, Flakes, Snow, Neive, Nieve, Snow White, Biancaneve, Bianca, Blanca, 

33

  
Blanche, Branca, Branquinha, Beyaz Ten, Caballo blanco, Belaia loshadi, White girl, white tornado, 
white lady, white dragon, white ghost white powder, polvo blanco, polvere bianca, poudre, pudra, 
sugar, azúcar, koks, cocco, coconut, coco, Coke, perico, perica, farlopa, calcetín, cama, Paco, Fefe, 
Bernie, Cecil, Baby, Bebé, Love Affair, Fast white lady, Lady C, Lady Caine, Dama blanca, girl, girl-
friend, Mamá Coca, She, Her …” (Saviano 2014: 108).

Keywords are selected through the analysis of the concrete field, using taxonomies, diction-
aries, semantic domains and specific terms. Keywords are clustered following the aim that 
ePOOLICE is pursuing. Keywords were selected through the analysis of specialised reports 
from  United  Nations  (UNODC),  EMCDDA,  national  security  reports  and  dictionaries/glos-
saries, or slang dictionaries (4).

Talking about cocaine trafficking, main clusters, selected from different reports and diction-
aries because of their frequency and relevance, could be:

 § Producer countries: Colombia, Peru, Bolivia …

 § Origin  countries:  Brazil,  Venezuela,  Caribbean  Islands  (Jamaica,  Netherlands  Antilles, 

Martinique) …

 § Transit countries: Guinea Bissau, Mali, Cape Verde, Madeira, Azores, Canary Islands, Be-
nin, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Mauritania, Togo, Algeria, Libya, Mo-
rocco, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, Balkans, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands …

 § Destiny: Portugal, Spain, France, the Netherlands, UK, Germany …

 § Roles:  international  wholesaler,  national  wholesaler,  retailer,  boss,  manager,  partner, 
transporter, tester, money collector, mixer, storer, law enforcement official, courier, mon-
ey deliverer, drug abuser, drug addict, drug baron, drug dealer, drug peddler, drug run-
ner, drug smuggler, hitman (sicario), networks, drug treatment …

 § Groups: narcos, Mafia, ‘Ndrangheta, cartels, FARC, AQIM, Galicia traffickers, Sinaloa Car-

tel, Zetas, Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs OMCGs, Hell Angels …

 § Drug trafficking activities: Cultivation, production, dispensing, distribution, logistics, 
marketing, frauds obtaining prescription drugs, processing, importation, manufacturing, 
possession  (for  own  use,  with  intent  to  sell),  sale,  supply,  distribution,  trade,  payment, 
recruitment, transportation, consumption, drug flows …

4  Some examples:

•   Multilingual dictionary of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances under international control 

https://www.unodc.org/documents/scientific/MLD-06-58676_Vol_1_ebook.pdf

•   Terminology and Information on Drugs 

https://www.unodc.org/documents/scientific/Terminology_and_Information_on_Drugs-3rd_edition.pdf

•   Demand Reduction. A Glossary of Terms 

http://www.unodc.org/pdf/report_2000-11-30_1.pdf

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017 
 
 
The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

 § Other crimes: money laundering, other trafficking activities (weapons, human beings, 
other drugs, tobacco, medicines …), extortion, kidnappings, smuggling, terrorism, fiscal 
fraud, corruption, counterfeit …

 § Drugs: Cocaine, crack cocaine, cocaine hydrochloride, cocaine base, coca leaves, can-
nabis resin, pure cocaine, Erythroxylum, cocaine paste, herbal cannabis, opium, heroin, 
crack, LSD, marijuana, hashish, synthetic drugs (amphetamine, methamphetamine, ec-
stasy), psychoactive substances …

 § Precursors: pre-precursors, precursor chemicals, acetic anhydride, potassium perman-

ganate, manganese dioxide, methyl ethyl ketone, acetone, toluene …

 § Chemicals: laboratories, secondary extraction laboratories, HCI, HCI manufacturing, fer-
tiliser, plastic, herbs, clothing, liquids, guano, beeswax, upholstery, polypropylene …

 § Adulterants, cutting agents: anaesthetics lignocaine (lidocaine) and benzocaine; pain-
killers such as phenacetin (a carcinogenic substance) and paracetamol; and other agents 
such as hydroxyzine, boric acid, glucose, manitol, lactose and caffeine, levamisole …

 § Transport: Routes, Containers, couriers, mules, postal services, airports, digestive tract, 

ships, airplanes, aircraft, submarine …

 § Police activities: Drug raid, squad, forensic science, asset confiscation, arrestees, entrap-
ment, drugs seized, seizures, arrests, detentions, interceptions, wastewater analysis …

With the technological opportunity to collect, classify and interpret information on the In-
ternet, Guardia Civil and the University of Aalborg selected a representative case from the 
news that could be taken as an example. They analysed several pieces of information that 
could contain several of the key elements about cocaine trafficking: origin, destiny, location 
of the seizure, criminal group, concrete characteristics, kind of drug, weight or dates, show-
ing that an intelligent entity extraction system can help to analyse this phenomenon.

35

  
Figure 2 — Semantic Search 
Analysis (I)

The analysis of this piece of information allowed for ‘translating’ the meanings that a se-
mantic system should search in the existing content on the internet. In this case:

Figure 3 — Semantic Search Analysis (II)

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

This  system  and  the  information  in  the  web  would  allow  to  collect,  classify  and  detect 
changes in patterns (strategic purposes), and to match data, for example if in another part 
of the world a package of cocaine marked with ‘00’ appeared (operational purposes).

After the definition of the semantic domain, a continuous process, the next step was the se-
lection of sources, based on the experience of law enforcement agencies officers. Sources 
are evaluated, following the systems used in intelligence analysis, reliability of sources and 
credibility of information (Hibbs and Pherson, 2013).

Indicators
The identification of indicators, about the evolution of the cocaine trafficking landscape, 
was a key question during the project. An indicator must be specific (precise and unam-
biguous, so it’s clear what it is that you are aiming to achieve), measurable (there should 
be a clear and transparent measure of success), relevant (should reflect what the organisa-
tion is trying to achieve), timed (it should be clear when the target should be delivered), 
appropriate (to the subject at hand), economic (available at a reasonable cost), adequate 
(provide  a  sufficient  basis  to  assess  performance)  and  monitorable  (amenable  to  inde-
pendent validation).

Other methodologies have been applied during the project in order to complete the En-
vironmental Scanning System: literature review, SWOT analysis, push and pull factors, ex-
pert panels and workshops, trend analysis, trend evaluation and future studies technics. An 
ePOOLICE workshop on Factors driving future crime was held on 11-12 March 2015 in Las Pal-
mas, Spain. The ePOOLICE partners Aalborg University, Isdefe and Guardia Civil organised 
the workshop. It was hosted by the Guardia Civil in the premises of the Centro de Coordina-
tion Regional de Canarias (CCRC). The complete methodological approach from the project 
has been recently published (Larsen, Blanco, Pastor and Yager, 2017).

The next figure provides a simplified view of the driving factors in the context of the ePOO-
LICE system (for environmental scanning) and the methodological framework considered 
for applications of the ePOOLICE system, borrowing the Early Warning Triangle from Gilad 
(Gilad, 2003).

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Figure 4 — Driving Factors in the Context of the ePOOLICE System

The ePoolice Solution System

The  ePOOLICE  project  —  in  close  collaboration  with  law  enforcement  partners,  as  well  as 
criminological  and  legal  experts  —  developed  a  prototype  of  an  environmental  scanning 
system through the implementation of solutions applying the technological advances and 
breakthroughs  as  provided  by  the  RTD  partners.  The  solutions  were  tested  and  evaluated 
through running realistic use case scenarios that were developed with the support of the end-
user partners in the consortium. Three were the main scenarios chosen for such these test as 
a proof of concept: cocaine trafficking, trafficking of human beings (THB) and copper theft.

Central to the solution was the development of an environmental knowledge repository 
(EKR) of all relevant information and knowledge, including scanned information and de-
rived, learned or hypothesised knowledge, as well as the metadata needed for credibility 
and confidence assessment, traceability, and privacy protection management. For an effec-
tive and efficient utilisation, as well as for interoperability purposes, the repository applies 
a standard representation form for all information and knowledge.

For effective and efficient scanning of the raw information sources, the project developed 
intelligent environmental radar that utilises the knowledge repository for focusing the scan-
ning.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

The main solutions provided by the project are supporting:

 § Detection of organised crime:

 § Detect the existence of criminal activities typically run by organised crime;

 § Discover organised crime and underlying criminal organisations as early as possible to 

prevent further formation of stronger, more resilient criminal systems.

 § Prediction  of  the  evolution  of  organised  crime.  This  requires  environmental  scanning 

system for analysing and developing scenarios of possible threats in the future.

The environmental scanning system (prototype) developed during the ePOOLICE project 
provides a systematic overview of the surrounding environment to better appreciate, as-
sess and anticipate an emerging crime, through the monitoring of the environment and the 
capture in real time of relevant information present in heterogeneous open sources, includ-
ing analysis reports, governmental information, web, news, academia, non-governmental 
and international organisations, and subject matter experts.

The system supports:

 § Different information sources;

 § Multilingual support — with English and German demonstrated;

Figure 5 — The ePOOLICE System

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 § The dissemination and exchange of information and knowledge of potential interest to 

the law enforcement agencies;

 § The visualization of potentially emerging OC threats for OC threat assessment;

 § The  early  warning  with  alerts  in  cases  of  detection  of  potentially  emerging  new  OC 

threats;

 § The storing and utilisation of hypothesis and notes from users;

 § The utilisation of user feedback on findings for refinement of the system’s domain knowl-
edge; analysis and decision-making in addressing emerging OC threats, considering the 
validity and the seriousness of the detected threats.

In addition, ePOOLICE refines a methodology — comprising legal, privacy and ethics as-
pects — to monitor heterogeneous information sources and to identify and prioritise in-
dicators in order to outline a strategic early warning process. Thus, the monitoring system 
has knowledge about a number of organised crime types and their facilitators, identifying 
signatures and indicators.

Functionalities available to the end-users (analysts) are:

 § browse, navigate, and zoom in the findings;

 § select a geographical or/and temporal view for information of interest;

 § refine the system’s knowledge of OC types, criminal hubs, modus operandi, indicators, 

signals, etc.;

 § refine the set of relevant sources, their importance, and scanning frequency;

 § provide additional knowledge, information, hypothesis, hunches, etc., to be properly uti-

lised by the system;

 § share and discuss findings with relevant colleagues in the police collaboration;

 § perform ad hoc queries and analyses in the EKR as needed in an analysis case.

The system supports the above functionalities, and can further:

 § use feedback from analysts to extract and propose new indicators/signals and adjust its 

warning/alert levels;

 § propose new sources to be scanned;

 § evaluate  and  estimate  the  importance  and  optimal  scanning  frequency  of  sources, 
based on usage behaviour monitoring and possibly explicit user feedback and inputs;

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

 § use information/knowledge while considering quality issues (e.g. completeness, accu-
racy, reliability, etc.) and the nature of the knowledge (e.g. factual, belief, hypothesis, etc.) 
for reasoning properly in answering a user query/question;

 § monitor the EKR use for privacy issues.

All information and knowledge in the EKR is highly tagged (e.g. kind of knowledge, source, 
registration time, credibility, importance, sensibility, etc.) as this is needed for its proper uti-
lisation and for the traceability of findings. All accesses by human operators and analysts, as 
well as by subsystems, are logged as required or needed for documentation, e.g. in case of 
violation of privacy, and for tuning and optimising the system.

ePoolice Implementation

The project aimed (cf. FP7 call) ‘to conduct research into technologically-/actor-driven sys-
tems and tools which support environmental scanning’. Therefore, ePOOLICE was an end-
user centric project that required a sound understanding of the needs of potential end-
users — something which was critical for the success of the project. This understanding 
included the domain, the problem targeted, the user and stakeholder needs and require-
ments. The development of the system prototype was guided by the end-user needs and 
the ethical/legal issues through active participations of LEAs and application of use case 
scenarios providing a problem-oriented drive for the project and using privacy by design 
approach.

But ePOOLICE counted too on the involvement of other end-users and stakeholders. An 
End user and Stakeholder Advisory Board (EUSAB) was established at the very outset of the 
project in order to reinforce the involvement of the end-users to ensure that the work con-
ducted in the framework of the project was consistently of the highest quality and that the 
practical needs of end-users were being addressed and maintained throughout the dura-
tion of the ePOOLICE project.

The consortium was comprised of strong and complementary partners with different pro-
files and backgrounds — the aforementioned  five end-users,  academia,  R  &  D  organisa-
tions, SMEs and large companies — as it is shown in the figure below:

41

  
Figure 6 — The ePOOLICE Consortium

The work in ePOOLICE was organised into nine different work packages, as shown in the 
following figure. This structure responded to the needs of the project, supported effective 
project coordination and represented a clear and efficient distribution and organisation of 
the consortium expertise.

Conclusion: Evaluation of ePoolice Results

The ePOOLICE project had a duration of 3 years. It started in January 2013 and finished in 
December 2015. In that latter month, the results of the ePOOLICE project were presented in 
a final workshop with end-users, held in ISDEFE premises in Madrid, where a demonstration 
of the developed prototype was carried out in front of 28 representatives from 17 different 
end-user organisations including Member States national LEAs and Europol, Interpol and 
Unicri.

Being a FP7 project, the results of ePOOLICE were also presented to and reviewed by the 
European Commission (EC), who were supported by an external reviewer on this task. It 
must be pointed out that, as the system is a prototype (TRL 6), it is not possible to be used 
directly by end-users and it is not in the market.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

Figure 7 — The ePOOLICE Work Packages Structure

The feedback got from these review and evaluation sessions was mainly collected in two 
final reports, one prepared by the consortium as a deliverable of the project and another 
issued as result of the European Commission final review. The conclusions can be summa-
rised as:

 § Overall,  it  can  be  concluded  that  the  end-users’  evaluation  of  the  proposed  environ-
mental scanning system was positive. There was a great interest among end-users to 
further develop the system prototype into a useful product given that the system dem-
onstrated was found good and interesting.

 § For this further development a continuation of the project was proposed. Different op-
tions  are  being  studied  and  a  good  choice  seems  to  be  that  end-users  and  partners 
organise for further collaboration, e.g. through another comparable (R & D) security pro-
ject. Seventeen letters of support from different end-users were received supporting this 
initiative for continuation.

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 § In  considering  a  second  phase  project,  the  possibility  should  be  assessed  to  include 
together with the current ePOOLICE framework — environmental scanning for strategic 
use — also the support of investigative and operational use: social media analysis, infor-
mation from Darknet, or virtual identities.

 § For the proper inclusion of social media analysis, especially for its usage in investigations, 
the ePOOLICE continuation should include a strong legal and ethical approach for its 
technologicial research and development process, with special care in the legal treat-
ment of personal data.It may further include proposing a standard for privacy security in 
such systems, considering the results of the ethical research.

 § The second phase project should be specified to ensure that the objectives will be met 
at a given technology readiness level (TRL 8 or 9). This would involve piloting by the end-
user, who have already expressed a clear an interest in it.

Considering all the above, ePOOLICE continuation possibilities are being explored within 
the EU H2020 projects (5). But key questions are waiting for an answer:

 § What can ePOOLICE provide to the LEA community now? According to the call from the 
European Commission the system ePOOLICE is a prototype that should be developed 
for its implementation. But in this moment it offers a broad set of analysis, and delivera-
bles,  about  environmental  scanning  methodologies  and  technologies  involved.  So,  it 
could be considered a starting point for the debate, with scenarios and technologies 
tested and evaluated by the Commission.

 § What other uses could the system have in criminal analysis? Although the tests were fo-
cussed on human beings trafficking, cocaine trafficking and copper robbery, the ePOO-
LICE  project  offers  the  key  elements  to  apply  the  methodological  approach  and  the 
technologies developed to other criminal phenomena.

(5)  How to get more information? The European Commission aims to go beyond the state of the art in matters 

related to security. The H2020 calls for research emphasise the need to take into account previous projects in 
order to avoid duplicating efforts. In these terms all the information that is not classified should be accessible 
for researchers and LEAs. Contact information: http://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/106659_es.html

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning against organised crime

References

•  Ansoff, H. I. (1975), Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals. Management Review, 18 (2), 21-33.

•  Blanco, J. M. and Cohen, J. (2014), The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct 
direction, European Journal of Future Research, 2, 50. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2
Fs40309-014-0050-9

•  Bensoussan, E. and Fleisher, C. S. (2013), Analysis without paralysis. 12 Tools to make better strategic decisions, 

Upper Saddle River: Pearson Education Inc.

•  Conway, M. (2016), Thinking Futures. Retrieved from http://thinkingfutures.net/my-downloads

•  Council of European Union (2015), Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment 2017. Revised methodology. 
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pdf

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europol.europa.eu/content/eu-serious-and-organised-crime-threat-assessment-socta

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OrgCrimeReport_web-final.pdf

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•  Larsen, H. L., Blanco, J. M., Pastor, R. and Yager, R. (2017), Using Open Data to Detect Organized Crime Threats. 

Factors Driving Future Crime, New York: Springer.

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London: Routledge.

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Semantic-Search.aspx

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From the Islamic State to 
the ‘Islamic State of Mind’: 
The evolution of the ‘jihadisphere’ 
and the rise of the Lone Jihad

Arije Antinori
CRI.ME LAB ‘Sapienza’, University of Rome,
Italy

Abstract
Recent  terrorist  attacks  in  Orlando  (USA)  or  Magnanville  (France)  highlight  the  globalised  power 
of  Jihadi  rhetoric  and  narrative  across  the  Web,  reshaping  reality  and  promoting  the  ‘Lone  Jihad’. 
Since 2012, from Mohammed Merah to Omar Mateen, ‘Lone Wolf Terrorism’ is characterised by the 
capacity to attack soft targets considered as the main threat for the urban scenario. Law enforcement 
professionals have to explore the dynamics of the ‘Jihadisphere’ by considering it not just as a repository 
but  the  core  of  the  ‘culture  of  terrorism’  globally  spread.  The  author  explains  the  main  phases  of 
internet Jihadism evolution focusing on the self-radicalisation process, the rise of lone wolf terrorism 
(LWT) and the Lone Jihad as a new scenario moving from the Islamic State ideology and propaganda 
to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’ (cyber-)experience.

Keywords:
Terrorism, jihad, jihadisphere, radicalisation, mediamorphosis

Preamble

The author wants to clarify that all the spiritual concepts typical of the Islamic religion — 
such as, for example, references to jihad — do not regard their original meaning. On the 
contrary, they regard the violent-based ideological distortion typical of the violent extrem-
ism  and  terrorism  that  has  self-defined  jihadist,  as  reported  in  Open  Source  Jihad  (OSJ), 
a section of the digital magazine Inspire, published by al_Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula 

4747

(AQAP) — strictly connected to Ansar al_Shari_a, the Yemen-based branch of al_Qaeda — 
as of June 2010, and its 16th issue.

The author wants to underline the evolution of the jihadism across the Web and the rise 
of the Lone Jihad thanks to open source (cyber-)ecosystem. Therefore, the contents of this 
article are not related to any Deep Web and Dark Web. In this article, as well as in several 
scripts, the author expresses the concept of ‘cyber’ by using the term ‘(cyber-)’ — in brack-
ets  —  to  highlight  the  already  blurred  boundary  between  ‘real’  and  ‘cyber’  (as  not  real) 
dimension of life. Therefore, shortly, it won’t be opportune to identify the cyber dimension 
as ‘other’ in comparison with the uniqueness of the human experience, especially within 
social dynamics. According to the author, this is totally redefining the concept of criminality, 
imposing a new semantic, as well as new methodological and technical interpretation in 
the monitoring, analysis, prevention and counter-action activities. Hence, law enforcement 
professionals need a comprehensive and holistic approach to operate in a systemic and 
multi-dimensional  way  in  order  to  develop  education,  innovation  and  motivation  at  the 
same time, as essential drivers to deal with the evolution of criminal complex phenomena 
(Antinori, 2014a).

‘Mediamorphosis’ of Terrorism

Today, Member States have to consider the so-called ‘jihadism’ as one of the main threats 
not just from a national and/or European Union perspective, but more specifically for an 
interconnected EU–MENA region in terms of geo-strategic vision in jihadism. This is a result 
of the involvement of trans-national and trans-continental hostile entities and dynamics in 
contemporary terrorism, as well as the process of ‘media-weaponisation’ (Antinori, 2014b: 
169) and ‘glocalisation’ of terror across digital media after the globalisation.

European  law  enforcement  has  to  enhance  the  prevention,  anticipation  and  counter-ac-
tions of the activities conducted by jihadist terrorists all over EU territory, as well as their 
massive media campaign promoted through the internet and social media platforms.

Thus, a concerted and efficient intervention strategy, in terms of prevention and counter-
ing, can be implemented only developing a deep insight of the phenomenon — consider-
ing its traditional roots as its completely new codes, (cyber-)social dynamics and techno-
logical assets — which is becoming the first globalised criminal phenomenon in human 
history. Therefore, it is opportune to identify relevant elements in order to understand what 
jihadist threat represents today in its own whole complexity. Furthermore, it is very impor-
tant to highlight how this threat is changing in the last 2 years — which saw the rise of the 
self-proclaimed Islamic State — and how the jihadism will evolve in the near future when 
visual culture, digital nomadism, communication and information will perform an essential 
role in people’s daily life.

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The end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century represent a crucial seg-
ment  of  time  for  jihadism,  thanks  to  the  concept  that  the  author  calls  ‘mediamorphosis’ 
(Antinori, 2015a: 4). It is a rapid process of transformation in which the medium is not only 
a container of messages aimed to generate terror, such as in traditional propaganda strat-
egies,  but  it  also  becomes  ‘media-terror’  itself,  an  asymmetric  weapon  of  the  globalised 
contemporary reality throughout the violent action/representation nexus.

Hence, communication technology has a relevant impact especially through the develop-
ment of digital and social media, in the dynamic of (cyber-)social transformation of terror-
ism, as well as its (cyber-)social environment, actors, resources, strategies and modi oper-
andi.

The ‘mediamorphosis’ is strongly linked to the transition from the ‘analogue’ world — or-
ganised into a hierarchy and institutional centres of information and knowledge production 
which used a one-to-many communication model — to the digital. The latter is a reticu-
lar and globalised world exclusively based on a many-to-many communication model — 
founded on the ‘cross-mediality’ and populated by user-generated and remediated (Bolter 
and Gruisin, 2000) contents and spread out through the Web, able to violently invade our 
daily life. For these reasons, law enforcement professionals should develop new cross-disci-
plinary skills, particularly in the interrelated social sciences, communication/media studies 
and computational sciences. Such cross-disciplinary skills have to focus on the integrated 
system of information and data necessary to understand the terrorist threat and its unceas-
ing evolutionary change.

Internet Jihadism and Jihadisphere

In order to understand the essence of jihadist mediamorphosis and, thus, the threat change 
currently in place we have to go back 11 years ago.

On 9 July 2005, the Egyptian Ayman al_Zawahiri, al_Qaeda strategic leader, sent a letter 
to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Jordan qaedist leader of al_Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), in which he de-
scribed the battle of terrorist entities by saying ‘more than half of this battle is taking place 
in the battlefield of the media, […] in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma’ (US DNI, 
2005).

In  2005,  the  international  community  considered  this  statement  as  a  traditional  cyber-
terrorist threat specifically related to the critical infrastructures protection or even as a cy-
bergeddon future scenario.

49

Unfortunately, the purely ‘revolutionary’ aspect expressed by such assertions was underes-
timated, as well as the deep impact that the ‘battle’ should have produced in terms of social 
change and threat in the following decade.

The ‘media battle’, the ‘race for the hearts and minds’ can be considered as the delinea-
tion of a conflicting scenario completely new which occurs, in primis, through the (cyber-)
social environment as a result of the development of the internet Jihadism phenomenon 
(Antinori, 2017a).

Thus,  it  is  impossible  approaching  jihadism  by  trying  to  isolate  it  from  its  media  nature 
which represents its essence and allows us to consider it a global criminal phenomenon. 
Just consider that the Islamic State, since its self-proclamation, has been developing the 
first globalised collective imaginary of the Digital Age. Some roots of such imaginary are 
connected to Western visual and media culture, completely opposite to Islam aniconism.

With respect to jihadism, it is opportune to specify that we are not in front of a static and 
monolithic phenomenon but it is extremely dynamic and its development occurs accord-
ing to a complex evolution path whose phases are briefly described as following:

Table 1 
Internet Jihadism

INTERNET JIHADISM

PHASE

TIMELINE

COM MODEL

WEB

TARGET ACTOR

MAIN DEVICE

TERROR ARENA

1998-2004

Post-analog

1.0

Groups (AQ, Hamas, 
Hizbollah)

Desktop

DIGIHAD

2004-2014

Post-analog, early digital

1.5

Groups (AQ) and virtual 
communities

Laptop

CYBER-JIHAD 

2014-2016

Digital, cyber-social

LONE JIHAD

2016-

Cyber-social

2.0

2.5

Groups (IS, AQ) hacking 
groups and individuals

Individuals and groups 
(IS, AQ)

Tablet/mobile

Smartphone

The ongoing evolutionary change of internet Jihadism is strongly connected to the ‘mo-
bile convergence’, that is the convergence of several media and tools as television, camera, 
navigator,  book,  newspaper,  telephone,  radio,  planner,  game,  music,  mail,  chat,  intimate 
communication, pray, wallet, etc., in one portable and soon wearable device.

In particular, the author points out Digihad as crucial phase, not only for its 10-year time 
frame, but for the massive exploitation of the internet carried out by al_Qaeda through the 
dissemination of violent videos of propaganda, tactical manuals and doctrine texts. Since 
2010, thanks to the issue of Inspire (the first jihadist serialised English-language online pdf 
magazine published by AQAP), the Open Source Jihad (OSJ) violent concept began to ‘pol-

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017From the Islamic State to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’:  
The evolution of the ‘jihadisphere’ and the rise of the Lone Jihad

linate’ the Web, forums, blogs and sharing platforms, promoting do-it-yourself attacks and 
inspiring young generations of self-proclaimed ‘jihadi warriors’ as we have been experienc-
ing since 2013 in Western countries.

al_Qaeda uploaded a great part of the online material to celebrate its iconic and charis-
matic leader Osama Bin Laden according to its strategy. The totality of online-shared media 
gave life to the Jihadisphere (Antinori, 2015b), the terrorist infosphere (Floridi, 2015). At the 
beginning,  it  was  considered  merely  an  online  repository.  Then,  thanks  to  (cyber-)social 
evolution, it has been expanding its interactive power, becoming the ‘living’ core of the 
‘culture of terrorism’. The Jihadisphere represents the socio-relational (cyber-)environment 
promoting the appealing, persuasive and seductive power of the ‘jihadentity’ — jihadist 
identity (Antinori, 2016) — as demonstrated by the Western foreign terrorist fighters who 
left their own countries to join the ranks of the Islamic State. The Jihadisphere has a strong 
impact on youngsters potentially representing ‘Generation-T’ (Antinori, 2015c: 32), the next 
generation of lone wolf terrorists ‘cultivated’ through ad hoc specific rhetoric and narratives 
to incite them to attack.

As a result of that, the author suggests to adopt a comprehensive, multi-dimensional and 
holistic approach to analyse the Jihadisphere, as (cyber-)social ecosystem. It is necessary to 
deeply understand jihadism complexity, assets, actors, violent radicalisation models and its 
particular ability to create (cyber-)experience.

Radicalisation and Self-Redicalisation

In order to understand how the (cyber-)environment can be useful to trigger the jihadist 
self-radicalisation process and the relevance of this threat for the future generations, it is im-
portant to point out some differences. The traditional, face-to-face, radicalisation is based 
on a simple Manichean dichotomy between ‘pures and unpures’, and is appealing for barely 
educated people that live in a context typified by a lack of tools and resources.

The ‘traditional’ radicalisation, as well as the self-radicalisation process, represents a funda-
mental challenge for law enforcement professionals.

The main differences between the two processes are shown below:

1) 

(Traditional) Radicalisation — it is based on an ‘analog’ environment and human rela-
tions. The process is characterised by local issues, blood-ties, face-to-face dynamics and 
direct participation. The individual is looking for religiousness to mitigate his distress, 
and becomes vulnerable to jihadist recruiters that misuse Islam for terrorist purposes. In 
a restricted socialisation environment, such as prison, the brotherhood, solidarity and 
in-group  dynamics  can  activate  the  emotional  drivers  pushing  the  individual  to  the 

51

jihadisation. The need of religious participation and ritual prayer led by ‘hate imams’, 
using hate speech to legitimate the violence against others, facilitate individual radi-
calisation. The jihadist proselytism and propaganda are restricted to a small group of 
participants, as affiliates, thus secrecy is an asymmetric asset for jihadism.

   The  option  mentioned  above  makes  law  enforcement  professionals  use  ‘traditional’ 
tools and methodologies to deal with behaviour profiles, standard criminal organisa-
tion models, communication dynamics and events timeline.

2) 

(Cyber-) Self-radicalisation — it occurs across the cyber-ecosystem and is mainly typi-
fied by global issues. The superficial religious knowledge based on simple stereotypes 
and  few  religious  concepts  characterise  many  violent  products  shared  across  the  ji-
hadisphere.  The  (cyber-)connections  between  supporters,  followers,  proto-jihadists 
and jihadists produce new (cyber-)slangs, concepts, thanks to the use of mobile de-
vices, instant messaging apps, online game chats, etc. There is no geographic distance 
between  people,  the  jihadisphere  is  the  (cyber-)social  environment  as  a  completely 
new place in which the individual has his own experience. Space and time limits fall in 
a never-ending (cyber-)hub of hate and violence where i-nculturation and self-training 
are open and available for everyone whether they are active participants or not. The 
jihadisphere is created to provide open sources, activities and experiences across in-
ternet and social media platforms. The visibility and representation are an asymmetric 
asset for jihadism.

   Law enforcement professionals have to develop new tools and trans-disciplinary skills 
to  deal  with  complexity,  ‘technolution’  —  technology-based  criminal  phenomenon 
evolution — multiactoriality, new (cyber-)social sub-culture and code, pathways pro-
files, instead of behavioural ones.

From its inception, the Islamic State has been able to exploit the emergence of the mo-
bile  culture  in  order  to  foster  the  self-radicalisation,  encouraged  by  the  development  of 
specific technological resources to guarantee the security of information. Considering the 
relevance of the semantic as media battle asset, the author calls that process ‘jihadisation’ 
(self-radicalisation to jihadism) to underline the clear difference between religion and ter-
rorism.

The jihadisation basically considers four different modalities, as follows:

1. 

‘imam of hate’ preaching;

2. 

‘brotherhood’ and recruitment in prison;

3. 

(cyber-)sociality across social media platforms;

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017From the Islamic State to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’:  
The evolution of the ‘jihadisphere’ and the rise of the Lone Jihad

4. 

‘mobile radicalisation’ as self-isolation.

The acceptance of the jihadentity, that is jihadist identity model proposed across internet 
and social media platforms by the Islamic State, is based on six principal factors of context, 
shown below:

A.  Violent cultivation — the promotion of a formal and informal violence-based system of 
justice;

B.  Personal vulnerabilities — the capability to target specific audiences all over the world 
to inspire vulnerable people to attack;

‘Culture of terrorism’ — the sub-culture globally widespread to reinforce in-group dy-

C. 
namic;

D.  Mobile generation issues — the role of mobile culture for the digital natives and mo-
bile born generations that perceive space and time in a completely new way;

E.  Cyber-narcissism  and  compulsive  selfism  —  the  need  of  self-representing  through 
the Web, sharing of oneself image and actions, using emphatic model and linguistic code 
based on a ‘mythical’ past by using concepts as knight, princess, realm, etc.

The  jihadist  self-radicalisation  is  exclusively  connected  to  the  internet,  social  media  plat-
forms and mobile apps. It is characterised by the providing of a complex (cyber-)experi-
ence across the Jihadisphere, especially for Western young audiences satisfying their frui-
tion needs.

This process is articulated in an eight cross-levels system, as follows:

1.  Literacy and education — books, magazines and app which, since his early childhood, 
provide the person with a view of life based on the recognition of the Adversary and the 
need/legitimacy to eliminate it;

2.  Economy — misrepresentative exploitation of the zakat as a religious pillar based on 
the coining of Dinar as identification coin of the Caliphate;

3.  Creativity — encouraging the realisation of user-generated contents, such as wallpa-
pers,  stickers,  photos,  magazines,  books,  videos,  comics,  nasheed,  app,  videogames  and 
game mods. In this way, young individuals reinforce the collective identity, jihadist ‘image’ 
and the gamification dynamics used to activate hetero-direct violence.

53

4.  Glocalisation — building and reinforcing of the collective consciousness and jihadist 
critical mass, able to involve more individuals in the active participation and/or promotion 
of the online spread of jihadism at a global level. From here the main role of the followers 
is guaranteeing the cross-media ‘bouncing’ of the jihadist media campaign and promoting 
violent self-determination at a local level according to always more asymmetric modalities.

5.  Sadistic behaviour — posting, reading and watching violent contents through hyper 
violent tubes, social media, reinforced from the ‘post-branding’ following the attacks;

6.  Technical training — manuals, handbooks, magazines and training videos;

7.  Multi-actoriality  —  rhetoric  and  narratives  which  glorify  and  put  several  jihad  inter-
prets in connection, such as ‘classic’ mujahidin, foreign terrorist fighters, self-started actors, 
home-grown, lone wolf terrorists, followers, United Cyber Caliphate, sleeping cells;

8.  Money income — criminal trafficking, THB, narcotics, money-laundering.

Therefore, the seductive power of the jihadist ‘offer’ in terms of complex (cyber-)experience 
is able to turn the self-radicalised individual into a lone wolf terrorist.

Conclusions

During the last year, the Islamic State has been launching its massive online media cam-
paign  to  celebrate  the  lone  wolf  terrorist  and  promote  the  ‘Lone  Jihad’  —  focusing  on 
the asymmetric power of the tactical-violent actions — improving its ability to create fear. 
Young individuals are particularly encouraged to attack against the Adversary, mainly soft 
targets,  in  several  ways  —  shooting,  stabbing,  bombing  and  suicide-bombing,  mowing 
down, stoning, intoxicating, hitting and screaming — getting inspiration from the Jihadi-
sphere.

The lone wolf terrorist represents one of the most relevant threat of the contemporary sce-
nario, though he is not a lone actor stricto sensu due to his (cyber-)life. In fact, the recent lone 
wolf attacks reveal the terrorists need to (cyber-)socialise and online share their actions.

The increasing power of the Jihadisphere and the spread of the Lone Jihad attacks imply 
that law enforcement professionals’ analysis move from a traditional ‘static’ approach — 
based on the repository categorisation of the jihadist products — to a holistic approach 
based on multi-dimensional and proactive analysis of the interactions between the ‘live’ in-
teractions across the Jihadisphere. The new perspective makes possible to understand the 
evolution of Lone Jihad and self-radicalisation phenomenon and its impacts on the new 

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The evolution of the ‘jihadisphere’ and the rise of the Lone Jihad

generations with the aim to prevent and anticipate the ‘Islamic State of Mind’, as the most 
dangerous threat for the near future, in a ‘swarm wolf’ scenario (Antinori, 2017b).

References

•  Antinori, A. (2014a), Il Ruolo della I[C]T nella prevenzione e nel contrasto dei fenomeni criminali complessi, 

Sicurezza e Scienze Sociali, 3, 23-37.

•  Antinori, A. (2014b), Weaponizzazione mediale. Dal Terrorismo Internazionale alla Digitalizzazione del Neo-
Terrorismo, In: Marotta G. (Ed.), Prospettive di Criminologia e Comunicazione, 169-198, Milano: Franco Angeli.

•  Antinori, A. (2015a), La ‘mediamorfosi’ del terrorismo jihadista tra iconoclastia e stato sociale, Federalismi.it — 

Rivista di Diritto Pubblico, Italiano, Comparato, Europeo, 17, 2-17.

•  Antinori, A. (2015b), Cyber-jihad — Weaponizzazione mediale ed avatarismo terroristico, ICT Security, Marzo 

2015, 21-25.

•  Antinori, A. (2015c), Gen-T. Terrorist Infosphere and i-Volution of Lone Wolf Terrorism, In: Richman, A. and 

Sharan, Y. (Eds.), Lone Actors — An Emerging Security Threat. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series, 23-34, 
Amsterdam: IOS Press.

•  Antinori, A. (2016), ‘Jihadentity’: A holistic approach to global jihadist culture and identity between collective 

imaginary, selfism and community, 2016 AEPC Conference and Governing Board Proceedings.

•  Antinori, A. (2017a), Internet Jihadism, In: Moghaddam F. M. (Ed.), The SAGE Encyclopedia of Political Behavior, 

London: SAGE Publications Ltd.

•  Antinori, A. (2017b), The ‘Swarm Wolf’ understanding to prevent the evolution of terror. In: Richman, A. and 
Sharan, Y. (Eds.), Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning — Emerging Technologies and New 
Counter-Terror Strategies, 51-60, Amsterdam: IOS Press.

•  AQAP (2016), Inspire, Retrieved from http://jihadology.net/category/inspire-magazine/

•  Bolter, J. D. and Gruisin, R. (2000), Remediation: Understanding New Media, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

•  Floridi, L. (2015), The Ethics of Information, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

•  US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2005), Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi — October 11, 

2005, Retrieved from https://fas.org/irp/news/2005/10/letter_in_english.pdf.

55

 Macro trends in the smuggling 
of migrants into Europe: 
An analytical exploration

Paolo Campana
Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge,
United Kingdom

Abstract
In this paper I take a closer look at the recent trends in two key migrant smuggling routes into the 
European  Union  —  the  eastern  and  the  central  Mediterranean  —  with  the  aim  of  identifying  the 
analytical and empirical features of the markets for smuggling services. I show that these markets 
have the ability to expand considerably and often over a short period of time. I then argue that this 
is consistent with the presence of many competitive enterprises, low barriers to entry, low skills and 
(relatively) low capital requirements. The costs to the smugglers of monitoring agents and clients are 
also likely to be modest, particularly in comparison with human trafficking. The paper concludes by 
discussing some policy implications, including the adoption of land-based policies (regarded as more 
effective than naval operations).

illegal  border  crossing,  migration,  central  Mediterranean  route,  eastern 

Keywords:
Human  smuggling, 
Mediterranean route

Introduction

Illegal migration into the European Union is hardly a new phenomenon. Nonetheless, the 
magnitude of the flows witnessed by the bloc has registered a steep increase in the past 
few years, particularly at its southern borders. According to figures released by the Europe-
an Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex), some 2 million illegal border crossings have 
been recorded between 2010 and the end of 2016 just at the Greek and Italian borders. This 
poses  an  extremely  difficult  challenge  to  law  enforcement  agencies  across  Europe,  and 
more generally to Member States and the European Union as a whole. In this paper, I will 

5757

take a closer look at the evidence on migrant smuggling collected by individual Member 
States and then collated and disseminated by Frontex through a number of official reports 
(see References for details). The goal of this paper is to tease out the analytical features of 
the market for (human) smuggling services by exploring the macro-level evidence on ille-
gal border crossings. This, in turn, should offer policymakers an analytical base upon which 
to build future policy responses.

The market for smuggling services

In this work, I interpret human smuggling as an illegal trade in which the commodity traded 
is primarily the illegal entry into a country (Campana and Varese 2016; Kleemans 2011). This 
sets smuggling apart from human trafficking, as in the latter case the commodity traded 
is primarily control over a person (see Campana and Varese 2016 for a discussion; also UN 
2000a, b). Trade normally takes place in a market, which, by definition, is characterised by 
supply and demand. In this specific instance, migrants constitute the demand-side of the 
market. They are willing to buy a service, i.e. illegal entry into a country, for a variety of rea-
sons (e.g. leaving war zones, poverty, economic hardship or persecution) that we shall not 
explore further. The demand for smuggling services is satisfied by a number of sellers. In 
this specific market, sellers are collectively defined as smugglers. Furthermore, the analysis 
presented below will focus on the Greek and the Italian borders to minimise potential bi-
ases related to the thorny issue of double-counting that affects the data on the Balkan and 
the Albanian routes; the Albanian and the Balkan illegal border crossings are — potentially 
to a very large extent — a subset of the Italian and Greek illegal border crossings.

Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes: macro-level trends

In the EU terminology, illegal border crossings into Greece and Italy are normally referred to 
as, respectively, the eastern Mediterranean route (this also includes the Aegean Sea) and the 
central Mediterranean route (this also includes the Ionian Sea and Malta). Figure 1 offers an 
overview of the number of illegal border crossings for these two routes between 2010 and 
2016. It is worth recalling here that, from an analytical point of view, ‘illegal border crossing’ 
is the commodity supplied by smugglers. For ease of reading, I will henceforth refer to this 
commodity as IBC.

Both the central Mediterranean route and, even more remarkably, the eastern Mediterra-
nean route have shown a considerable increase in 2014-2015. The rate of change year-on-
year gives a further indication of the extent of the growth experienced by these markets. 
The number of IBCs along the eastern Mediterranean route increased by 1.641 % from 2014 
to 2015. This translates into 885 386 illegal entries in 2015 compared to 50 834 in the previ-
ous year (+ 834 552). IBCs also increased remarkably along the central Mediterranean route:

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into Europe: An analytical exploration

Figure 1 — Illegal Border Crossings (2010-2016) (6)

+ 199 % between 2012 and 2013 followed by + 277 % (2013-2014). Interestingly, this route 
also recorded a + 1.344 % year-on-year change between 2010 and 2011: this is a level of 
growth similar to that registered by the eastern Mediterranean route in 2015 (7). In other 
words, the ability of the market for smuggling services to grow by such very high rates does 
not appear to be a specificity of a single route. When favourable conditions arise, the market 
for IBCs is quick to expand. Figure 2 offers a more fine-grained picture based on quarterly 
data. To take into account the seasonality of the phenomenon (mostly due to weather and 
sea conditions), each quarter is compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The ability of the market for IBCs to expand quickly is confirmed by the quarterly analysis. 
For instance, between Q4/14 and Q4/15, IBCs in the eastern Mediterranean route increased 
by 3.011 %. This is reflected in the absolute number of IBCs: they rose from 14 152 in Q1/15 
to 68 168 the following quarter (+ 678 % year-on-year), then to 319 146 in Q3/15 (+ 1.329 % 
year-on-year) and finally to 483 910 in Q4/15 (+ 3.011 % y-on-y). The picture also shows the 
likely effect of the implementation of the EU–Turkey agreement that came into force in the 
second half of March 2016: notice the slowdown in Q1/16 and the negative growth in Q2/16 
compared  to  Q2/15  (–  87  %).  The  available  evidence  suggests  that,  while  the  EU–Turkey 
agreement appears to have fallen short of completely ‘shutting down’ the eastern Mediter-
ranean route (as 172 982 IBCs were still recorded between January and September 2016), 

(6)  Central Mediterranean route is plotted on the left scale; eastern Mediterranean route on the right scale.
(7)  Although from a lower base: from 4 450 to 64 241 IBCs.

59

  
Figure 2 — IBCs: 
Rate of change for 
central Mediterranean 
(grey) and eastern 
Mediterranean (black), 
Q1 2012-Q2 2016, 
percentage of change 
year-on-year for each 
quarter

there has been nonetheless a considerable decrease over the 2015 peak (885 386 IBCs) (8) It 
is worth noting here that the EU–Turkey agreement is based mostly on a set of land-based 
policies (as opposed to naval operations such as those carried out in the central Mediter-
ranean).

Theoretical implications

What  are  the  analytical  implications  of  the  evidence  discussed?  The  recent  trends  in 
smuggling  activities  presented  above  suggest  that  markets  for  smuggling  services 
are  able  to  grow  considerably  and  often  over  a  relatively  short  period  of  time.  Such  an 
ability  to  expand  in  response  to  changes  in  external  factors  (i.e.  higher  demand  and/or 
lower pressure from law enforcement agencies) does not seem to be confined to a single 
route. In fact, both the eastern Mediterranean and the central Mediterranean routes have 
registered  similar  percentage  increases  at  different  points  between  2010  and  2015.  It  is 
worth  noting  that  we  are  considering  here  only  ‘successful’  IBCs,  i.e.  situations  in  which 
the smugglers have managed to deliver successfully the services they promised (leaving 
aside considerations about the quality, safety and price of these services). The volume of 
activities generated by scammers and inept smugglers is not counted. The number of IBCs is 
therefore an indication of the level of successful market exchanges. So, what characteristics 
should a market possess to achieve an output consistent with the pattern described above?

(8)  The level of IBCs recorded in 2016 is still higher than that recorded in 2014 (50 834, see Figure 1).

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into Europe: An analytical exploration

I will now turn to a discussion of these characteristics with a caveat: a macro-level analysis 
such as the one discussed in this paper allows only for some preliminary conjectures on the 
analytical features of the market for smuggling services: additional micro-level studies are 
certainly needed to gain a more detailed picture.

Firstly, the absence of large monopolies. Arguably, monopolies would find it hard to satisfy 
such a sudden and vast increase in demand for their services. On the contrary, the trends in 
smuggling activities described seem to be consistent with a situation of market competi-
tion, i.e. a condition under which buyers and sellers are free to enter a given market.

Secondly, assuming that a large number of new smugglers have indeed entered the market 
to satisfy the large and sudden increase in demand, the implication is that these markets are 
likely to have low barriers to entry.

Thirdly, the high rate of growth suggests that the level of resources required for an actor to 
enter the market successfully or for an existing actor to expand his operations is likely to be 
relatively low. These resources include skills and capital requirements. For incumbents, the 
set-up costs are also likely to be relatively low.

Moreover, I have argued elsewhere (Campana 2016a) that one of the key factors hindering 
the growth of human trafficking organisations is (high) monitoring costs. Acquiring control 
over a victim with the purpose of exploitation entails a high degree of monitoring (on mon-
itoring costs more generally, see Reuter 1983 and 1985). Although not directly comparable, 
a parallel reading of the data on IBCs and non-EU victims of human trafficking identified in 
the European Union immediately shows that the two phenomena manifest themselves at 
a different level of magnitude: on average, 2 198 non-EU victims of trafficking were identi-
fied between 2010 and 2012 (these are the most recent figures available at the EU level: see 
Eurostat 2015: 39; cf. Figure 1) (9). Thus, the expectation is that monitoring costs in the case 
of human smuggling are drastically lower than in the case of trafficking.

Finally,  to  support  sudden  and  sizeable  expansions  in  the  market,  smugglers  and  migrants 
alike need to rely on an infrastructure that is able to handle transnational payments and is 
equally flexible. According to many sources, the hawala system appears to perform this role 
well,  and  it  is  a  popular  choice  among  actors  seeking  a  financial  infrastructure  to  support 
smuggling-related transactions (on hawala more generally, see Varese 2015; van de Bunt 2008).

(9)  Non-EU victims of Human Trafficking identified in the European Union were 2 421 in 2010, 2 002 in 2011 and 

2 171 in 2012 (Eurostat 2015: 39).

61

  
Policy implications

What policy implications can be drawn from the discussion above? In a context in which 
States aim to minimise illegal migration, the ability of the market for smuggling services to 
grow exponentially and over a relatively short period of time poses a dramatic challenge 
for law enforcement authorities and states alike. The presence of low barriers to entry and 
a competitive environment means that the market can meet sudden surges in demand, but 
also that the void created by the arrest of a single smuggler can quickly be filled by other 
actors.

While the EU–Turkey agreement appears to have been relatively successful in decreasing 
IBCs in the eastern Mediterranean, the EU naval operations in the central Mediterranean do 
not appear to have been able to achieve the same outcome. The latest EU naval operation 
in the Mediterranean, the so-called ‘Operation Sophia’ (Eunavfor MED), was launched with 
the goal of tackling human smuggling through ‘the boarding, search, seizure and diver-
sion of smugglers’ vessels on the high seas’ (EUEA 2016: 1). The available evidence does not 
point in the direction of a success in this respect (10). Furthermore, it is difficult to imagine 
how naval operations can be successful in reducing the number of IBCs without adopting 
an Australian-type policy of towing intercepted boats back to a third country (incidentally, 
this was done by Italy on 6 May 2009; on 23 February 2012, the European Court of Human 
Rights ruled the push-back of boats to Libya to be illegal: see Hirsi Jamaa and others v. Italy, 
27765/09). Amenta et al. (2016) have empirically tested the effect of naval operations on the 
market for smuggling services in the central Mediterranean, and have concluded that ‘Op-
eration Mare Nostrum’ and its replacements appear to have increased the size of the market 
for smuggling services. They have shown that these operations have produced a number 
of unintended consequences, including (a) stimulating departures from Libya, and thus the 
profits for smugglers, and (b) providing a subsidy to smuggling organisations by way of an 
‘insurance package’ offered by smugglers to migrants.

Land-based policies may prove to be more effective than sea operations (Shortland and 
Varese 2014 have come to a similar conclusion in relation to tackling Somali piracy). Smug-
glers appear to be rational actors who enter this market when the opportunities arise and 
the  benefits  outweigh  the  costs.  Therefore,  working  on  the  structure  of  incentives  (and 
disincentives) in transit countries may prove to be an effective strategy in reducing the size 
of the market for IBCs.

Finally,  there  are  indications  that  the  market  appears  to  be  more  demand-driven  than 
supply-driven. This supports the adoption of wider policies that reduce the necessity to 
migrate  and/or  to  rely  on  the  smuggling  market  when  needed.  For  instance,  the  adop-

(10) There is little doubt about the ability of ‘Operation Sophia’ to provide humanitarian assistance to migrants — 

which is, indeed, a very noble task.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into Europe: An analytical exploration

tion of schemes that resettle refugees directly from war-torn zones would be a step in this 
direction.

Conclusions

This paper has taken a closer look at macro-level trends in human smuggling into the Eu-
ropean Union to tease out some analytical and empirical features of the market for smug-
gling services. It has shown that this market was able to grow considerably and often over 
a relatively short period of time in relation to both the central Mediterranean and the east-
ern Mediterranean routes. In this paper I then conjectured that, for a market to be able to 
achieve such an outcome, it must possess at least some of the following features: firstly, the 
absence of large monopolies. The existence of market arrangements more geared towards 
competition seems to be consistent with the trends observed and the preliminary evidence 
presented (11). Secondly, the presence of low barriers to entry. This includes low skills and 
(relatively) low capital requirements; newcomers are likely to face relatively low set-up costs. 
Furthermore, monitoring costs are in all probability limited, particularly when compared to 
related phenomena such as human trafficking. Moreover, a key element is the existence of 
an infrastructure to support financial transactions that is able to match and adapt to sud-
den changes in the smuggling market. The hawala system appears to possess this quality. 
Finally, some policy implications were discussed.

Acknowledgments

I am grateful to Frontex analysts for taking the time to meet with me and discuss issues 
related to migrant smuggling and data collection. I am most indebted to Ken Okamura and 
Peter Reuter for their very helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper, and to audi-
ences at Eurojust and the Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge (special thanks 
goes to Cyril Lacombe and Lukáš Starý for organising the seminar at Eurojust, as well as for 
providing valuable comments). This work was supported by a grant from the Cambridge 
Humanities Research Grants Scheme, University of Cambridge, which I gratefully acknowl-
edge (Co-PI with Professor Loraine Gelsthorpe). An earlier version of parts of this paper has 
appeared in Policing: A Journal of Police and Practice.

(11) Additional evidence is discussed in Campana (2017).

63

  
References

Books and Articles

•  Amenta, C., Di Betta, P. and Ferrara, C. G. (2016), A Subsidized Tragedy: A Program Evaluation Approach for the 

Patrolling of the Mediterranean Sea. Mimeo.

•  Bunt, H van de. (2008), The role of Hawala bankers in the transfer of proceeds from organised crime, In Siegel, 

D. and Nelen, H. (eds), Organised Crime: Culture, Markets and Policies (pp. 113-126), New York: Springer.

•  Campana, P. (2016a), The structure of human trafficking: lifting the bonnet on a Nigerian transnational 

network, British Journal of Criminology, 56(1), 68-86.

•  Campana, P. (2016b), Explaining criminal networks: strategies and potential pitfalls, Methodological 

Innovations, 9, doi:10.1177/2059799115622748.

•  Campana, P. (2017), The market for human smuggling into Europe: a macro perspective. Policing: A Journal of 

Police and Practice, Online first. DOI: doi:10.1093/police/paw058

•  Campana, P. and Varese, F. (2016), Exploitation in human trafficking and smuggling, European Journal on 

Criminal Policy and Research, 22(1), 89-105.

•  Kleemans, E. (2011), Human smuggling and human trafficking, In M. Tonry (ed.), Oxford Handbook on Crime 

and Public Policy (pp. 409-27), Oxford: Oxford University Press.

•  Reuter, P. (1983), Disorganised Crime: The economics of the visible hand, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

•  Reuter, P. (1985), The Organization of Illegal Markets: An economic analysis, New York: United States National 

Institute of Justice.

•  Shortland, A. and Varese, F. (2014), The protector’s choice: an application of protection theory to Somali piracy, 

British Journal of Criminology, 54(5), 741-64.

•  Varese, F. (2015), Underground banking and corruption, In Rose-Ackerman, S. and Lagunes, P. (eds.), Greed, 

Corruption, and the Modern State: Essays in political economy (pp. 336-54), Cheltenham and Northampton, MA: 
Edward Elgar.

Official documents

•  EUEA (2016), European Union Naval Force, Mediterranean Operation Sophia. Factsheet, Retrieved from: https://

eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and-operations/eunavfor-med/pdf/factsheet_eunavfor_med_en.pdf

•  Eurostat (2015), Trafficking in human beings, Luxembourg: Publication Office of the European Union.

•  Frontex (2010-2016). FRAN Quarterly Reports. Warsaw: Frontex.

•  Frontex (2010-2015), ARA Annual Risk Analysis, Warsaw: Frontex.

•  UN (2000a), Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, 

Supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organised Crime.

•  UN (2000b), Protocol against the smuggling of migrants by land, sea and air, supplementing the United Nations 

Convention against Transnational Organised Crime.

64

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017 What about AI in criminal 
intelligence? From predictive 
policing to AI perspectives

Patrick Perrot
Gendarmerie Nationale, Ministry of Interior, Paris,
France

Abstract
Predictive policing is more and more developed around the world. TV-shows and fictions such as ‘the 
minority report’ or ‘Person of Interest’ spread a pre-crime effect that is, nevertheless, very different from 
reality. Many law enforcement bodies develop predictive analysis to find new opportunities against 
crime and it is generally dedicated to patrols. The Gendarmerie Nationale in France carried out through 
the concept of criminal intelligence a way to provide relevant information to describe, understand and 
foresee crime at different scales: operational, tactic and strategic. The aim is to upgrade the process 
of  decision-making.  Because  crime  is  nor  a  random  process  neither  a  deterministic  process,  some 
features exist to characterise it. Obviously, it is very difficult and probably not possible to identify all 
features linked to crime evolution or criminal behaviour. Nevertheless, some characteristics are not 
so complicated to model in a formal mathematical structure. So, in the age of Big Data, applications 
of predictive analysis can be overtaken by artificial intelligence (AI). It is very developed in fields like 
medicine, finance or transportation and could on one hand provide new perspectives to fight crime 
but also on the other hand raise questions for future. Who will be the next organisation able to assure 
the  best  way  to  anticipate  crime  and  criminal  behaviour?  AI  could  be  defined  as  the  capacity  of 
a computer to model human reasoning. A grand challenge is opened for law enforcement but only if 
they are able to adapt their way of working to this new era. The scope of this paper is to describe the 
French development in predictive analysis and to open the potential use of artificial intelligence in 
different area of criminal intelligence without avoiding the risk of its new development.

Key words:
Artificial intelligence, crime analysis, predictive policing, GAFAM, law enforcement

6565

Introduction

As proposed by the International Association of Crime Analysts (2014) ‘intelligence’ is per-
haps  one  of  the  most  confounding  terms  in  crime  analysis.  Indeed,  it  is  very  difficult  to 
embrace all the characteristics of crime in one field. Nevertheless, criminal intelligence in 
France is considered as the way to collect any kind of information required to fight crime by 
anticipation. For several years, the fight against crime in France, based on a posteriori meth-
ods has not been any more efficient and able to contain the criminal evolution. Indeed, the 
possibilities available to offenders in term of mobility or IT resources, allow him to commit 
multiple crimes with a great effect and minimal risk. The techniques of investigation are 
until today essentially reactive as illustrated by forensic sciences. Since Edmond Locard or 
Alphonse Bertillon, who were two pioneers in forensics, science has contributed to the res-
olution of many crimes. However, an a posteriori point of view is not sufficient today to face 
new forms of offences and offenders. The appropriation of new technologies in the field of 
common crime as serious and organised crime requires an evolution of law enforcement to 
adapt their modus operandi to anticipation and proaction. This is the reason why the Gen-
darmerie Nationale develops a criminal intelligence integrating new methods of prediction.

Criminal intelligence is defined as a concept that regards investigation and public safety. 
While in the first case, the aim is to analyse individuals or groups involved in crime, in the 
second case, the aim is more preventive by providing a macro view of crime and evaluating 
explaining features at different scales (short, medium and long term). In crime investigation 
as in public safety, criminal intelligence consists in collecting, analysing and valorising data 
to propose a way to reduce or decrease the number of offences by anticipation. Anticipa-
tive policing appears as an application of mathematical techniques to identify likely targets 
and prevent crime or solve past crimes by making statistical predictions. For 2 years, the 
Gendarmerie Nationale has developed a predictive approach of criminal risk (Berk, 2012; 
Perrot  2014;  Perrot  and  Achi,  2015)  oriented  to  common  crime  as  serious  and  organised 
crime. Data analysis is, of course not, a new concept but the process of examining large data 
sets containing a variety of data to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations, crime 
trends, criminal preferences and other useful information needs to be encouraged in the 
Big Data era. Mathematicians are able to predict with a reasonable doubt hotspots, as well 
as when each type of crime might occur, by a careful and probabilistic analysis. But, within 
the development of a discipline that finds a name in 1956, Artificial Intelligence (AI), exciting 
new opportunities were now available. Is it reasonable to think that artificial intelligence 
could help law enforcement in the fight against crime? This paper will discuss the appear-
ance of AI in many applications since 1956, its applications against crime and the interest for 
law enforcement to use it in criminal intelligence.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives

What about AI?

In the field of AI, Alan Turing appears as a pioneer. In 1950, he defined a test based on indis-
tinguishability from undeniably intelligent entities-human beings and designed to provide 
a satisfactory operational definition of intelligence (Turing, 1950). The computer passes the 
test if a human interrogator, after posing some written questions, cannot tell whether the 
written responses come from a person or not. In 1950, the term ‘AI’ didn’t exist but the idea 
that machines will be able to imitate human reasoning had emerged. Another great math-
ematician, John McCarthy, proposed in a summer school (Dartmouth College conference) 
in 1956 a name (or two letters) to a concept: Artificial intelligence (AI) (McCarthy, 1959). Mc-
Carthy tried to develop a language able to translate human reasoning in computer instruc-
tions. At this time, it was very difficult to imagine all the possibilities of such a way, but today 
in the Big Data era, many perspectives are opened and a great challenge is in front of law 
enforcement. AI is based on mathematical models used to solve real-world problems and 
have  demonstrated  all  its  relevance  in  many  domains  as  varied  as  biometrics,  medicine, 
transportation, or education.

The AI core is called machine learning (Breiman, 2001a; Marsland, 2009) and its extension 
deep learning or q-learning for tomorrow. This discipline aims to understand the funda-
mental principles of learning as a computational process and combines tools from comput-
er science and statistics from large datasets. Machine learning is very relevant to recognise 
but also to predict new patterns and provide a possibility to improve performance with 
feedback. To this end, machine learning has been applied, ranging from fuzzy logic rea-
soning to artificial neural network creation, in an effort to imitate the human logic and the 
way correlations or inference may be achieved. It is based on a set of observations to learn 
a model like in the case of the famous Pavlov’s Dog experiment. In other words, within an 
expert system based on machine learning, we have a training sample of n observations on 
a class variable ‘Y’ that takes values (1, 2,..., k,) and p predictor variables, (X1, ..., Xp). Our aim is 
to find a model for predicting the values of ‘Y’ from new ‘X’ values.

Among the large range of machine learning methods, we can cite neural networks, Gauss-
ian  mixture  models,  classification  tree  or  random  forest  and  so  on.  Neural  networks  are 
based on modeling the neurons and feeding the network a set of training data to find pat-
terns. A Gaussian mixture model is a probabilistic model that assumes all the data points are 
generated from a mixture of a finite number of Gaussian distributions with unknown pa-
rameters. Classification tree consists in modeling by recursively partitioning the data space 
and fitting a simple prediction model within each partition. As a result, the partitioning can 
be represented graphically as a decision tree. Based on the classification trees theory, ran-
dom forests (Breiman 2001b) try to classify a new object from an input vector, put the input 
vector down each of the trees in the forest. Each tree gives a classification, and we say the 
tree ‘votes’ for that class. The forest chooses the classification having the most votes (over 
all the trees in the forest).

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So, the machine learning theory is based on different phases: feature extraction, training, 
test and evaluation. Feature extraction is a type of dimensionality reduction that efficiently 
represents  interesting  parts  of  a  query  object  as  a  feature  vector.  In  the  training  phase, 
the features of an object or pattern are stored as reference features to generate numerical 
templates for future comparisons. The numbers of reference templates that are required 
for efficient recognition depend upon the kind of features or techniques that the system 
uses for recognising the object. In the recognition phase, features similar to the ones that 
are used in the reference template are extracted from an input object whose identity is re-
quired to be determined. The recognition decision depends upon the computed distance 
between the reference template and the template devised from the input utterance. The 
more training data, the better the pattern recognition. Figure 1 illustrates an expert system 
based on a phase of enrolment of data to create model, a phase of pattern recognition and 
a phase of decision.

The  level  of  performance  of  an  expert  system  is  quantified  most  typically  by  a  ‘receiver 
operating characteristic’, called ‘ROC curve’ or a detection error tradeoff curve called DET 
curve. This curve reveals the compromise between the ‘false acceptance rate’ and the ‘false 
rejection rate’. The false acceptance rate is the frequency with which query data from differ-
ent sources are erroneously assessed to be from the same source and the false non-match 
rate is the frequency with which query data from the same source are erroneously assessed 

Figure 1 — Expert system principle

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives

to be from different sources. The performance of a system falls on a point on the ROC curve 
whose location is a function of the matching ‘threshold’ applied. A higher match threshold 
reduces false acceptance rate and increases false rejection rate. On the contrary, a lower 
match threshold reduces the false rejection rate but increases false acceptance rate.

The decision step is a binary hypothesis testing problem expressed by:

H0: impostor object

H1: client (real) object

The Pfa=P(x=1|H0) is the probability of false acceptance then Pfr=P(x=1|H1) is the probability 
of false rejection

According  to  the  Bayesian  theory,  these  two  kinds  of  errors  are  weighted  by  costs  and 
summed into a single cost function, the Bayesian risk function:

Brisk= P(H0).Cfa.Pfa+P(H1).Cfr.Pfr (1)

with P(H0): probability of an impostor object, P(H1): probability of a genuine object, Cfa, cost 
of false acceptance, Cfr, cost of false rejection.

P(x|H0) is compared to a threshold that divides the decision region between a region of ac-
ceptance and a region of rejection. If an object’s matching score happens to fall above the 
thresholds, it is considered as genuine, if it is below as imposter.

One of the main advantages of an artificial intelligence system is its capacity to continuous-
ly learn any kind of information increasing the efficiency of a decision. Such a system takes 
into account different views, different perspectives and thus is proposing a more complete 
analysis. But what is important to consider is that AI is first an empirical science. AI follows 
a hypothesis-and-test research paradigm. The performance of these systems are very linked 
to the databases and to the algorithm used.

AI has developed so rapidly over the past few years struggling lesser to make sense of what 
they see or hear. Computers can now outperform humans in some cases. This is the case in 
the field of object recognition, face recognition, facial expression, speaker recognition and 
even emotion identification.

So, AI applications are more and more developed and common in our world. In 1997, Deep 
Blue, an expert system built by IBM, has already defeated the world chess champion, Garry 
Kasparov, in a six-game match after a defeat in 1996. Then, in 2011, another system from IBM 
called Watson, in reference to John Watson, the founder of the society, won in a jeopardy 

69

  
game  against  humans.  And  recently,  AlphaGo  from  Google,  based  on  Monte-Carlo  tree 
search with deep neural networks defeated a human European champion. Independently 
from this cases revealed by media, AI progresses day after day at a very high speed in many 
areas. For instance, Google, Apple, and Microsoft are competing to transform vehicle trans-
port with self-driving vehicles. Some applications open up new ways for human to interact 
with embodied conversational agents (Wiendl et al., 2007) able to perceive not only the 
virtual but also the physical world as well as reactive behaviour control. Google and Fa-
cebook are designing chatbots that make decisions for users about diverse activities like 
commercial, shopping or travel arrangements. Such innovations could not be external to 
police affairs.

Application against crime: From predictive analysis to AI

The first step before the development of AI could be the predictive analysis development 
as we see in many countries. Among concrete applications, we can cite the modeling of 
crime characteristics in order to anticipate new occurrences. The Washington Times head-
lined about prediction: ‘Never a crystal ball when you need one’. Even if such a ball does not 
appear as the good way, forecasting based on scientific methods is a real way of progress 
for criminal intelligence. Spatial and temporal methods appear as a very good opportunity 
to model criminal acts. Common sense reasoning about time and space is fundamental 
to understand crime activities and to predict some new occurrences. The principle is to 
take advantage of the past acknowledgment to understand the present and explore the 
future. Based on multiple methods including exponential smoothing algorithms (simple, 
double, triple), autoregressive integrated moving average techniques and neural networks, 
a prediction analysis is carried out on different offences. These models are fitted to offence 
time series data either to better understand the data or to predict future points in the series. 
They are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity. Results are 
derived from two different sets of past data. The first one is used to train the algorithm and 
build the model and the second one is used to evaluate the performance of the model. 
Data  from  2008  to  2013  constitutes  the  training  set  and  data  from  2014,  the  evaluation 
set. Based on the prediction model, a future evolution is proposed for 2015 as illustrated 
in Figures 2 and 3. The curves (below) illustrate a temporal evolution of a specific offence 
month per month. Blue colour characterises the real evolution, red, the prediction model 
and green, the predictive evolution.

Based on this curve, it is possible to optimise the allocation of resources during some specif-
ic periods but also to evaluate the performance of some modus operandi used in the past 
(last year or last month). Indeed, the delta between real and predicted value in 2014 must 
be explained in order to evaluate the efficiency of police operations and to optimise next 
actions. This kind of curve is developed for many offences and so, a prioritisation of actions 

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives

Figure 2 — Construction of the prediction model

Figure 3 — Predictive evolution

can be proposed targeting the right offence at the right time. Complementary to a tempo-
ral view, a spatial analysis can also be carried out at different scales as proposed in Figure 4.

The  main  interest  is  to  identify  trends,  patterns,  or  relationships  among  data,  which  can 
then be used to develop a predictive model and propose short, medium and long-term 
trends (Hoaglin et al., 1985) in order to inform police service at different levels. A map visuali-
sation is very interesting and relevant to anticipate crime or criminal moving by evaluating 
the places of concentration or the dispersion movement. Such work can be completed by 
the association of external data in order to find explanation. For instance, based on a regres-
sion model it is possible to explain crimes like burglaries from social and economic data like 
urban development and population growth.

71

  
Figure 4 — National-Regional-Departmental view of a predicted offence

Because crime is neither a random nor a deterministic process, some features exist to char-
acterise crime and perhaps offenders or police officers. Based on this assumption, it is pos-
sible to mechanise some tasks and upgrade predictive policing by applying AI techniques 
on the question of crime and to get benefits from machine intelligence.

Web 3.0, also considered as the semantic web, is a space where the data has its own mean-
ing and its own means of production from connected objects. This web offers the pos-
sibility to deliver observational, behavioural and tailored content to individuals rather than 
to ‘crowds’. Web 3.0 is a web of targeting based on massive data. From this concept a new 
form of police could emerge: a police 3.0 or 4.0 taking account of the analysis of massive 
data, the exploitation of connected devices and a capacity to provide individual profiles by 
anticipation. The question is to know who will be the master of this new police? The an-
swer to this question is a real subject and challenge for the next years. The GAFAM (Google, 
Apple,  Facebook,  Amazon,  Microsoft)  and  the  NATU  (Netflix,  Air  BNB,  Telsa,  Uber)  global 
corporates collect more and more data every day and have a real capacity of analysis and 
produce objective results. In 2015, Bill Gates expressed that AI is entering a period of rapid 
advances.  AI  will  fundamentally  change  how  humans  move,  communicate  and  live.  To-
day  personal  data  and  private  information  cannot  be  fully  controlled.  GAFAM  are  at  the 
forefront of innovation in artificial intelligence, with active research exploring virtually all 
aspects of machine learning, including deep learning and more classical algorithms. They 
gather  large  volumes  of  direct  or  indirect  evidence  of  relationships  of  interest,  applying 
learning algorithms to understand and generalise. In the field of crime analysis it is easy to 
imagine some concrete applications:

 — To recognise a known criminal in a specific area and send an email on a personal smart-

phone;

 — To identify geographical and time hotspot areas of crime;

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives

 — To make a profile of criminal based on massive data;

 — To indicate the level of multiple offences in a specific area; and

 — Why not to replace a police officer by a virtual agent in specific tasks.

It could be very exciting to visualise on one’s own smartphone a risk of theft or aggression 
on a specific area or to get an estimation of the number of pickpockets around us. It might 
provide the citizen with a sensation of control of his or her own security — but isn’t it an 
illusion? Indeed, all these applications cause a risk for privacy and for the power to decide. 
In addition, without any control of the data, it will be very difficult to evaluate the reliability 
of the information. The risk is real and the best way to protect people from abuses and to 
avoid a police driven by ROI (Return On Investment), is to allow and rely on the develop-
ment of AI applications by law enforcement.

In an era of accountability, law enforcement cannot rest on past accomplishments against 
crime for very long. Law enforcement must go one step further but step by step by rigor-
ously respecting privacy. It is more and more important to be flexible and creative to face 
a criminality in constant and quick evolution. This new vision for future is a great and excit-
ing challenge. Using computer to analyse how offenders react to questions combined with 
the ability to identify what sort of people they are, could also provide new opportunities to 
help investigators.

An expert system is able to autonomously learn crime activities and behaviours which oth-
erwise would be masked in a global environment. From a theoretical point of view, AI can 
be used in three different cases:

 — To model criminal acts;

 — To model behaviour and criminal way of reasoning;

 — To model behaviour and investigator way of reasoning.

The objective is to extract knowledge from these three sources and why not from a fusion 
of these sources. Nevertheless, to transform a theoretical point of view to practical applica-
tions is not so easy.

A possible use of AI is to model specific profiles of criminals. The principle of this approach 
consists in evaluating the possibilities that a suspect relates to an a priori class. The advan-
tage of an AI is to train the model from criminological theory and from real case reports. 
These kind of applications could be realised to build a class model for specific criminals but 
also for victims. Analysis of the patterns formed by prolific offenders could be built on many 
elements,  like  their  movements,  their  area  of  living,  advertising  or  working,  their  habits, 
their type of crime, their previous convictions, their home, their daily activities, their social 
networks, the offence locations, etc.

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Based on the same principle and in the case of financial crimes linked to sensible compa-
nies, a profile based on social engineering could define an evaluation risk of attacks. A first 
condition is to get a history of past cases in order to build a dataset of victims and another 
one of non-victims. The competitive hypothesis developed in the decision process is:

H0: non-victim company

versus

H1: victim company

and the risk for a query company to be victim is calculated by (1).

This  kind  of  analysis  starts  to  be  used  in  order  to  find  the  most  probable  possibility.  In 
future, it could also be possible to model the behaviour and the investigator’s reasoning. 
But it is necessary to know: what is an investigator? — and this is a very complex problem 
to solve. In many cases, the investigation process is a logical enterprise in a logical environ-
ment, formed by the legal procedure. In addition, an investigator uses his own experience 
to  increase  his  relevance.  These  different  aspects  can  be  modeled  by  an  expert  system 
based on the principle of training. One source of the investigator reasoning is the results of 
interviews carried out with the agents that could be used to train a model. A police officer 
on patrol most likely uses deductive reasoning and learns everything by experience (Bosio, 
2011). So, the challenge for an expert system is to be able to incorporate experience and 
a way of reasoning. Yet, knowledge and intuition of the police officer play a central role. All 
the process is not logical and an investigator in front of a situation needs to keep an open 
and adaptive attitude. Technical and logical knowledge, although necessary, is not suffi-
cient to account for the global process of investigation. Patrizio Bosio emphasises that the 
everyday experience of a police officer is imbued with grey areas and with excellent, albeit 
concealed, knowledge.

Currently, we can consider that a virtual agent able to provide objective help to a real in-
vestigator doesn’t seem realistic because of the heterogeneity and the complexity of the 
situation that is not uniquely logical. Formal or informal perception plays an important role 
in the grip on reality for investigators. Because the human brain is not a chess program, 
AI is not completely ready today to emulate it. Understanding criminal investigations also 
requires inferring a hidden factor, namely, the intention of the police officer. But we cannot 
exclude for the future that the extension of AI in this field is based on an analysis of police 
officer patterns. Analyses could for instance include experience, age of investigators, trajec-
tories, modus operandi of investigations, crime type, and so on.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017What about AI in criminal intelligence? From predictive policing to AI perspectives

In conclusion: the integration of AI is still a process under construction. Machines are learn-
ing to see in increasingly reliable and useful ways, opening up a wide range of opportuni-
ties and perspectives for law enforcement. AI can increase the capacity to receive real-time 
alerts of abnormal behavior and quickly respond to time-sensitive and critical events. Inde-
cision and delays are the parents of failure, the aim is to upgrade human decision-making 
thanks to AI. The risk is to see these perspectives developed by private societies or industrial 
groups instead of law enforcement.

Conclusion

The  aim  of  this  paper  is  to  prepare  law  enforcement  to  the  unavoidable  use  of  AI  tech-
niques. Generally in AI, systems are autonomous and can decide what to do and then do 
it. In the case of security, these kind of perspectives are not admissible, the decision must 
be human. The human decision-maker must be considered as the centrepiece for police 
operations even if powered by AI that accelerates the decision. Human decisions must be 
a sanctuary in the field of police activities. In such a way, AI methods provide mainly a sup-
port in the process of decision-making. It is an exciting time for the field, as connections to 
many other areas are being discovered and explored, and as new machine learning appli-
cations bring new questions to be modeled and studied. It is safe to say that the potential 
of AI and its application against crime lie beyond the frontiers of our imagination but must 
be limited by questions of privacy. Information communications technologies cannot sup-
plant privacy obligations. This is one of the main reasons why law enforcement must be en-
gaged in this way of development. The grand challenge is not for tomorrow but for today. 
And don’t forget that AI can also be used by the criminal offender. What will be the future 
criminal uses of automated crime? How will criminals take advantage of advances in AI to 
extend and improve their criminal activities? We have already seen the very beginning of 
these activities in cyberspace. But what happens when computers think and can improve 
themselves on new forms of previously unanticipated forms of criminality?

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References

•  Berk, R. A. (2012), Criminal justice forecasts of risk: a machine learning approach, Springer.

•  Breiman, L. (2001a), Statistical modeling: two cultures (with discussion). Statistical Science, 16, 199-231.

•  Breiman, L. (2001b), Random forests, Machine Learning, 45, 5-32.

•  Bosio, P. (2011), Knowledge from experience of a police officer: a grounded study, CEPOL European Police Science 

and Research Bulletin, (4), 12.

•  Hoaglin, D. C., Mosteller, F. and Tukey, J. (1985), Exploring data tables, trends, and shapes, John Wiley.

• 

International Association of Crime Analysts (2014), Definition and Types of Crime Analysis, Standards, Methods & 
Technology (SMT), Committee White Paper.

•  Marsland, S. (2009), Machine learning: an algorithmic perspective, CRC Press.

•  McCarthy, J. (1959), Programs with Common Sense, Proceedings of the Teddington Conference on the 

Mechanization of Thought Processes, 756-91.

•  Perrot, P. (2014), L’analyse du risque criminel: l’émergence d’une nouvelle approche, Revue de l‘Electricité et de 

l‘Electronique.

•  Perrot, P. and Achi, K. T. (2015), Forecasting analysis in a criminal intelligence context, Proceedings of the 

International Crime and Intelligence Analysis Conference.

•  Turing, A. (1950), Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind, 59(236), 433-460.

•  Wiendl, V., Dorfmüller-Ulhaas, K., Schulz, N. and André, E. (2007), Integrating a virtual agent into a real world, 

Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Intelligent Virtual Agents, 211-224.

76

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017 Pathways to Understanding 
Community-Oriented Policing 
in Post-Conflict Societies

Jaishankar Ganapathy
Tor Damkaas
Department of Further and Continuing Education
Norwegian Police University College, Oslo,
Norway

Abstract
This paper aims to provide a brief outline of an ongoing research project that is funded by the EU 
for a period of 5 years. The project titled ‘Community-Based Policing and Post-Conflict Police Reform’ 
will  address  different  aspects  of  Community-Oriented  policing  and  police  reform  in  post-conflict 
societies.  Community-based  policing  holds  promise  but  also  entails  challenges.  A  clear  ambition 
for the project is to identify both differences and commonalities in community-oriented policing in 
post-conflict societies. Human security will form an important backdrop for understanding key issues 
like post-conflict violence, peacebuilding SSR and COP. In this paper we point to some dilemmas and 
perspectives regarding SSR, COP, post-conflict and human security. In addition the paper provides an 
overview of the role of the Policing Experts Network as project advisors and evaluators for mapped 
community-oriented policing training and education material.

Keywords:
Post-conflict, community-oriented policing, human security, SSR, police training and education

Introduction

Police  reform  in  post-conflict  societies  has  been  receiving  significant  attention  in  recent 
years. Global threats (terrorism, drug and trafficking networks, etc.) often originate in con-
flict  and  post-conflict  contexts  where  maintaining  law  and  order  is  extremely  challeng-
ing. The international community and the EU spend billions supporting police reform pro-
cesses in post-conflict contexts (Bloching, 2011). However, increased use of resources and 
effort has so far failed to result in effective policing and trust-building in these societies. 
For  example,  in  post-conflict  societies,  emphasis  is  usually  placed  on  the  police  fighting 

7777

insurgency rather than crime; widespread corruption, abuse of police powers and lack of 
professionalism are some of the other factors that impede a well-functioning civilian police. 
A well-functioning national police force that is able to uphold the rule of law is crucial to 
state building. The rule of law is an important bastion of police reform in countries under-
going transition from conflict to post-conflict status (Mani, 1999). An all-inclusive approach 
to police reform is therefore essential to restore trust-based relations between police and 
the community in post-conflict societies (Bayley, 2001). Community-oriented policing (COP) 
is widely acknowledged to be an important policing model that can greatly enhance better 
cooperation and trust between the police and the community (Alderson, 1977, 1979, Ben-
nett, 1994 and Greene, 2000).

Aims of the research

This joint research project seeks to provide solid empirical knowledge and analysis by con-
ducting a comparative study of the causes and implications of security or insecurity in post-
conflict societies. The project will be a unique study of community-oriented policing (COP) 
practices and experiences that captures both successes and failures, and compares them. 
Our comparative analysis will shed light on existing COP practices in South Asia (Afghani-
stan and Pakistan), Africa (Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan), Central America (Guatemala, 
Nicaragua and El Salvador), and south-eastern Europe (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and 
Kosovo). The selection is based on these countries’ relevance in relation to the EU and inter-
national organisations’ engagement in police reform.

It aims to reflect both success stories and worst-case scenarios. The underlying assump-
tion  is  that  key  analytical,  process-oriented  lessons  can  be  learnt  both  from  what  works 
and from what definitely does not work. Integrating security discussions into development 
discussions through the concept of human security gives us a good opportunity to study 
COP practices in post-conflict contexts.

One of the main aims of the research is to generate knowledge about human security at 
the local level. In our opinion, those best positioned to understand the interplay between 
security and development challenges are the community of women, children and men. 
In most post-conflict societies, issues of personal security and livelihood security are quite 
often intimately intertwined, and there will therefore be a need to understand how local 
communities cope with issues of human security, and how state institutions like the police 
can contribute to rather than threaten human security. As Marenin rightly points out, ‘… the 
fundamental problem and goal for the state, the police, and civic society remains security, 
which is broadly conceived as less crime and more social order, more physical and mental 
safety, and confidence by the people that they will be able to live and work knowing that 
they and their way of life will be protected’ (Marenin, 2009: viii).

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A unique feature of the research project is the presence of a Police Experts Network (PEN) 
comprising policing experts and professionals with extensive institutional and mission ex-
perience, whose role will be to support research planning and the dissemination of research 
findings on police practice. The findings from the research process will help to facilitate COP 
curricula, education and training in the case countries.

Challenges and dilemmas of police reform

It was not until the late 1990s and early 2000s that police reform gained increasing attention 
from policymakers and international reform actors as an important part of international as-
sistance for capacity building in post-conflict societies. Despite this, however, research on 
police reform has remained sparse as an independent academic field of study (Zielger and 
Nield, 2001). There are several reasons for this lack of interest.

 § Firstly, police reform and security sector reform (SSR) are used interchangeably as identi-
cal concepts in post-conflict security discourses. Policymakers recognised SSR as a much 
broader concept in security matters in international assistance and state-building inter-
ventions. As the DCAF Report points out, there is ‘…. little growth in knowledge about 
policing  within  the  police  community  concerned  with  neither  SSR,  nor  an  increased 
sense of how the police matter in SSR and how policing affects the human security of 
a population’ (Marenin, 2005: 29).

 § Secondly, much of the SSR approach has primarily focused on a militarised security dis-
course,  thereby  undermining  the  importance  of  police  reform  efforts  in  post-conflict 
societies. Eide and Holm clearly describe this dilemma when they mention: ‘... the overly 
military focus of traditional international relations research on the one hand and, on the 
other,  the  more  alternative  approaches  of  the  peace  research  community,  which  has 
tended  to  reject  the  importance  of  effective  state  power’  (Eide  and  Holm,  2000:  02). 
In other words, the law and order role of the police has received much less attention, 
despite its potential for dealing with day-to-day law and order issues that affect the com-
munity. As Tonita Murray points out, ‘… there is considerable knowledge and experience 
available to adapt to police organisations in post-conflict societies, but such accumu-
lated knowledge and experience is not being tapped into’ (Murray, 2007: 118).

 § Thirdly, some researchers have pointed to the western-centric approach to SSR, where 
the focus is on western-style models of reform and policing (Brogden, 2005). Bayley ar-
gues that international police reform focuses on issues that are beneficial to donor coun-
tries  rather  than  recipient  countries  (Bayley,  2005).  Despite  these  dilemmas  and  chal-
lenges, sustainable development and building of peace and stability depends on the 
trust established between police and the people, as much as it depends on institutional 
police reform. This is where community-oriented policing becomes relevant.

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The role of the police is crucial in post-conflict situations, especially in the transition from 
military to civilian-based security. However, this role is not very often clear. In these situa-
tions,  tensions  often  arise  between  those  advocating  ‘hard’  security,  such  as  combating 
well-armed and organised insurgents, and those concerned with law and order issues in 
and between communities on a day-to-day basis (Mani, 1999, Ferguson, 2004, Pinot and 
Wiatrowski,  2006).  There  is  therefore  a  need  for  a  police  service  that  can  both  deal  with 
armed insurgents and with day-to-day law and order issues in communities. However, the 
reform seems to lack mechanisms for interacting with communities, learning more about 
their particular security needs and finding ways to work together to address them. The best 
way of doing this in such diverse, volatile environments cannot be decided at policy level, 
however, but rather at the local level together with those whose lives are actually at stake. 
The importance of policing in post-conflict societies is clearly identified by Marenin: ‘Peo-
ple want and need jobs and deserve employment, but they also need protection against 
normal criminals and organised violence. The issue of what to address first in post-conflict 
construction has no obvious answer, except to say that local civic society needs to have 
a strong voice in determining priorities and the sequencing of reconstruction projects, and 
that civic society and the state have both soft and hard security needs’ (Marenin, 2005:10). 
Without community involvement and support, police reform efforts have little chance of 
succeeding.

Scope of Community-Oriented Policing in Post-Conflict Societies

One of the crucial questions that arise in post-conflict contexts is how to improve relations 
between law enforcement agencies and citizens, especially when the latter have been the 
victims of violence and corrupt behaviour perpetrated by the law enforcement agencies 
themselves. Trust between police and communities are extremely weak. That is why a ci-
vilian police service is clearly important as part of the state-building effort in post-conflict 
societies. The creation of a strong and successful police service and its ability to impose 
the rule of law is of fundamental importance to overall human security (Mani, 1999). This is 
where COP can re-establish broken links between communities and police, establish them 
where  they  may  never  have  existed,  or  renegotiate  them  where  they  were  poor  in  the 
past. However, this transition is not an easy one, because, in many post-conflict societies, 
the police themselves are viewed as a cause of insecurity, due to violent and abusive be-
haviour, corruption and their inability to deal with local law and order issues. Despite these 
challenges, COP as a policing model holds much promise in restoring and building trust in 
police/community relations.

Like the concept of human security, there is also wide variation in the definitions and in-
terpretations of COP used by different actors, thereby raising questions about its utility at 
the operational level. In our project, we aim to capture the diversity of COP perspectives 
by looking at it from two angles: the top-down angle, which includes government poli-

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cies and efforts, and police perspectives from the national, regional and local levels; and 
the bottom-up angle, which includes how COP is perceived by different communities of 
women, youth, men and minorities. The role of NGOs and civil society in general will also 
form an important part of our research.

Post-conflict

At first glance, the term ‘post-conflict’ can seem to be a misnomer, especially if we look at 
the countries that are involved in our research project. It can be argued that countries like 
Afghanistan, Somalia and South Sudan can hardly be classified as ‘post-conflict’ given the 
persistent violent conflicts that feature in the news almost every day. However, while con-
flicts can be devastating, they also vary within each region or country. For example, some 
areas in a country will experience relative calm and peace with very little violence, while 
other areas of the same country will experience violent conflicts in the form of insurgencies, 
conflicts about resources or a general lack of law and order.

Afghanistan is a good example of this variation. For example, parts of the country are expe-
riencing heavy conflict as a result of local and cross-border insurgencies by the Taliban and 
ISIS, while other parts of the country are relatively calm. Our fieldwork in Nimruz bears testi-
mony to this. It is a region where there is relative peace and calm with very little insurgency 
or violent threats to the local population.

Therefore, for the purpose of our research  project ‘Community-Based Policing  and Post-
Conflict Police Reform’ project proposal 2014, (Acronym ICT4COP) (12), ‘post-conflict country’ 
primarily refers to countries where there have been high levels of violence and some degree 
of intervention, either in the form of national or international military or police missions, and 
that are undergoing some form of recovery and reform process (ICT4COP, 2014: 13).

Human Security as a conceptual framework

An interesting perspective in our project is linking security and development through the 
concept of human security. It links them by placing the security of populations, as opposed 
to the security of states, at the centre of the security debate. Whether the government is 
present or not, local populations must constantly negotiate the terms of their security or 
insecurity with whomever is in power in order to reconstruct their lives.

The concept of Human security (UNDP, 1994) originated in 1994 with the Human Develop-
ment Report on aid and security discourses. Human security focuses on two main areas: 

(12) ICT4COP: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innova-

tion programme under grant agreement No 653909.

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‘freedom  from  fear’  and  ‘freedom  from  want’.  It  focuses  on  broader  aspects  of  security, 
(economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community and political security) and on 
the different forms of interlinked insecurity people experience (Alkire, 2002). The concept 
recognises violence and poverty as major threats that are somehow related, although in 
ways  that  may  not  be  immediately  apparent.  In  its  broadest  sense,  the  term  focuses  on 
human vulnerability, encompassing threats of all kinds (Tadjbakhsh and Chenoy, 2007). At 
the policy level, there has been an ongoing debate about what this broad and all-inclusive 
concept means in relation to existing security and development policy, and whether it can 
lead to a meaningful shift in how international actors approach their engagement in post-
conflict and fragile environments (MacFarlane and Kong 2006, Mack, 2002). Advocates of 
the concept point to its strength in bridging the gap between security, violent conflicts and 
development agendas, while critics point to its ambiguous and multi-interpretative nature 
and question its usefulness at a practical level (Paris, 2001, Gasper 2010).

As there is no common consensus on the definition itself, many countries have approached 
it in different ways. For example, the Canadians have used the concept to humanise their 
security agenda by concentrating on key issues like poverty alleviation, strengthening gov-
ernance and accountability, human rights and social justice in their peace operation mis-
sions  (Axworthy,  1999),  while  the  Japanese  take  a  broader  view  of  human  security,  their 
emphasis being on its humanitarian aspect. They have set up a Human Security Trust Fund 
to provide funds that can be used operationally on the ground to assist community de-
velopment projects in fields such as education, health, agriculture, landmine removal, etc. 
(Atanassova-Cornelis, 2006, Glasius, 2008). Nonetheless, whatever the focus, the question 
remains how the relationship between conflicts, violence and poverty can best be under-
stood in post-conflict societies, and how this can be addressed in a more integrated way 
by actors at the local level. In the report Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People, 
the Commission on Human Security (2003) points to the involvement of a plethora of ac-
tors, such as NGOs, regional organisations and civil society, in managing human security, 
and stresses that empowering people is an important factor in human security and that 
state and human security are dependent on each other. As the report tellingly points out, 
‘Without human security, state security cannot be attained and vice versa. Human security 
requires strong and stable institutions. Whereas state security is focused, human security 
is broad’ (Commission on Human Security, 2003:6). An accountable national police is a pre-
requisite for good state-building.

Police Experts Network

A common complaint running through different police reform missions is the challenge 
of  capacity  and  competence  building  in  a  long-term  perspective.  Police  reform  and  ca-
pacity building in conflict and post-conflict societies takes time. As A. Rathmell mentions 
in the case of Iraq; ‘…programmatic delays combined with the very short time horizons 

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Pathways to Understanding Community-Oriented Policing in Post-Conflict Societies

hampered the implementation of the capacity building, reform, and institutional-building 
programmes’ (Rathmell, A. et al., 2005: xi). One of the ideas behind the establishment of and 
inclusion of the Police Experts Network (PEN) in ICT4COP was to create a forum that could 
bring together academia and practitioners on the ground (i.e. individuals with police expe-
rience). The Police Experts Network is coordinated by the Norwegian Police University Col-
lege (PHS), and aims to mobilise a range of police experts and professionals linked to police 
institutions, NGOs, IGOs and police missions who can directly integrate and apply research 
findings  in  training/education  programmes  in  post-conflict  countries.  Our  project-based 
Police Experts Network includes policing experts and police professionals with responsi-
bilities in key European and international institutions/organisations/missions and from case 
countries. For each case country, a network of police experts and research actors will be 
formed to interact during the entire research process.

As of February 2017, 56 individuals (13 female) representing 20+ different nationalities are 
registered as Police Experts Network members, 35+ with a policing background.

One of the main tasks will be to engage members in discussions on community-oriented 
policing  in  post-conflict  settings.  Training  and  education  materials  collected  from  focus 
countries (where the project will directly study police–community relations) and from se-
lected European countries and international organisations where COP training and educa-
tion is provided will be mapped in order to identify and disseminate ‘best practices’ and 
‘lessons learned’. PEN will also be activated to assist with other work packages under the 
ICT4COP project on developing Community-Oriented Policing Handbooks.

For the research project, the Norwegian Police University College has created an electroni-
cal database platform for ‘COP training and education’. The database is only accessible to 
PEN-members and researchers involved in the ICT4COP-project. It will include information 
on:

 § Owners and authors: who owns the material, what are the intellectual property consid-
erations and who is responsible for its development/maintenance, contact person.

 § Is the course only available for training law enforcement personnel or can a wider audi-

ence (NGOs, etc.) be given access to and the right to use the material.

 § Is it a basic, intermediate or advanced course/training?

 § Are the courses accredited and are ECTS credits obtained after successful exams.

 § Delivery method: i.e. self-learning, online learning, classroom-based or a combination.

 § Technical requirements for successful delivery of the course.

 § Assessment: is the course assessed, and if so how?

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In addition to the abovementioned mapping questions, several additional questions have 
also been included that are relevant to the research project.

 § Who are the actors involved in COP training and education?

 § Who were/are the actors involved in the development of strategies for COP training and 

education?

 § What are the links between national governments and COP training and education strat-

egies?

 § Who attends the community-oriented policing training that is mapped?

 § Are there cultural differences in the interpretation of the notion ‘community-based/ori-

ented policing’?

 § Are there different approaches to and understandings of the notion ‘community-based 

policing’ in the mapped material?

The ICT4COP timeframe is 5 years ending in June 2020. The advantages of connecting prac-
titioners and researchers are twofold. Firstly, the researchers find that contact with police 
officers with ‘boots on the ground’ has distinct value. Secondly, the members of the Police 
Experts Network will be in a better position to interpret the mapped training material from 
a practitioner’s point of view, as intended. For example, the need to delineate the research 
efforts became obvious in the case of Pakistan, a federal country with a huge variety of 
different,  independent  police  agencies/forces  and  education  institutions.  In  one  region, 
namely Punjab, almost 10 different basic and advanced police education institutions have 
been identified, and the same applies to other regions in Pakistan. National knowledge at 
the local level about the organisation and structure of the police has proven to be of great 
value when mapping training material.

In the latter phase of the project, handbooks and other material will be made available to 
the EU and other international institutions educating and training police personnel serving 
on police reform missions. The PEN members will also be engaged in the development 
of  elearning  modules  in  Community-Oriented  Policing  in  close  cooperation  with  Ruhr-
University Bochum, Germany. By involving these police professionals, the project aims to 
influence the way COP is understood and practiced by institutions/countries that contrib-
ute to policy, training and education through the EU and international organisations. It will 
also  create  a  forum  promoting  reflection  and  a  better  understanding  of  the  differences 
between  the  institutions  that  provide  police  personnel  and  host  country  institutions  as 
regards their understanding and practicing of community-oriented policing. Continuity is 
an important factor for a successful police education and training in post-conflict socie-
ties.  One  of  the  biggest  challenges  in  police  development  programmes  as  pointed  out 
by Albrecht and Jackson is ‘how to retain and pass on institutional memory remains a real 
issue’ (Albrecht, P. and Jackson, P., 2009: 173). This is where PEN will be an important bridge 

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between the research process and the application of the findings in COP education and 
training curricula both in Europe and case countries.

Moving Forward

The study approach will be explorative and qualitative. Our research will be conducted in all 
case countries in close collaboration with the experts in our Police Expert Network and ICT 
partners. Data will be collected through semi-structured interviews, focus group meetings, 
case histories and key informants. Participants will include communities of women, men, 
youth, ethnic groups and other groups that may be relevant in the particular context, from 
both the city and village level in all case countries. Data will also be collected from govern-
ment and non-government institutions, civil society, the police establishment and other 
authorities that will be relevant to our project. In short, our data will comprise state-centric 
and people-centric perspectives on the issues of COP and human security.

Of course, individuals’ perspectives and experience are crucial to our understanding. They 
can lead to new and different ways of looking at and understanding the issues at hand. 
However, while it must be remembered that narratives are not static and will always con-
tain contested elements, they nonetheless help researchers, practitioners, communities of 
women and men and policymakers to understand how individuals locate and experience 
their social world (Hopkins, 2004, Spalek, Awa El and Macdonald, 2008).

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•  Spalek, B., Awa El, S. and Mcdonald, Z.H. (2008), Police-Muslim Engagement and Partnerships for the Purposes 
of Counter-Terrorism: an examination. Summary Report / November 2008. http://www.religionandsociety.org.
uk/uploads/docs/2009_11/1258555474_Spalek_Summary_Report_2008.pdf

•  Tadjbakhsh, S. and Chenoy, A. (2007), Human Security: Concepts and Implications, London: Routledge.

•  UNDP (1994), Human Development Report, New York: Oxford University Press.

•  Ziegler, M. and Neild, R. (2001), From Peace to Governance: Police Reform and the International Community. 

Washington D.C., Retrieved from: http://www.wola.org/media/police_reform_report[1].pdf.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Community engagement: 
Considering adult-learning and 
problem-solving methodologies 
for police training

Kenneth Murphy
An Garda Siochana, Garda College, Templemore,
Ireland

Abstract
Police  engagement  with  communities  is  a  central  focus  of  many  law  enforcement  agencies.  The 
capacity to successfully integrate in such a way may come naturally to some, but the training through 
which new police officers are placed should also prepare them for any such organisational ethos. While 
many police training interventions follow traditional learning delivery platforms, the introduction of 
interventions which address and consider adult learning approaches and problem-solving supports 
can  significantly  contribute  to  the  development  of  skills  and  competencies  which  allow  officers  to 
engage even more effectively with the communities they serve. The inclusion and consideration of 
various models of learning in the police training and education process is essential, so that maximum 
benefit from the process can be afforded to learners, the organisation, and, the wider community. This 
article considers the inclusion of andragogy (Knowles, 1980) and the problem-based learning (PBL) 
approach to learning in police training, so that the development of skills necessary for community 
engagement can be facilitated.

Keywords:
Police training, adult learning, andragogy, problem-based learning, community engagement

8787

Introduction

Given the changing nature of society and the resultant demands placed on any police ser-
vice, the question of what exactly are the most appropriate methods of educating police 
officers is a recurrent one. Chappell (2008) reminds us that it is only in the last 50 years or 
so that the study of law enforcement training has achieved its own space in the broader 
sphere of training and development. Some approaches to police training utilise teacher-
centred  approaches  at  their  core  (Werth,  2009)  and  were  often  developed  on  a  military 
model  without  enough  thought  perhaps  being  given  to  the  transactional  elements  of 
learning  (Vodde,  2008).  The  teacher-centred  approach  is  viewed  by  some  as  one  which 
does not allow a person to develop the ability to act outside set sequences to solve prob-
lems or to deal with changes (Gagne, 1962). The role of the police in society requires offic-
ers to have the ability to think critically and problem-solve effectively (Birzer, 2003). With 
this  challenge,  there  is  increased  debate  on  how  police  training  should  be  constructed 
and delivered. In this article, the concepts of andragogy and PBL are introduced to the de-
bate, with the intention of considering more than just traditional training methods when it 
comes to the training of police officers for the modern world.

Doing the basics of policing

In  recent  years,  the  return  to  a  policing  model  which  places  community  policing  at  the 
centre of its operational strategies (Tilley, 2003, cited in Newburn 2003) has been a catalyst 
for the examination of how police training is delivered. McCoy (2006) stipulated that this 
necessitates  the  police  officer  ‘to  be  a  problem-solver,  be  self-directed,  have  respect  for 
diversity, and be an effective communicator’ (p. 88). Once selected for basic police training, 
student police officers must be facilitated in developing the skills necessary to do their job 
effectively, as protectors of the community.

The following words were written by a police consultant in New York almost a century ago, 
and while a variety of police skills are mentioned, the unchanging role of the police officer 
as a problem-solver and decision-maker is remembered:

‘On his first tour he (the police officer) may be called to handle a serious incident wherein sever-
al persons are injured … summon medical and police assistance, arrest the person or persons 
criminally responsible, procure witnesses and … take a mental picture of the scene, assist the 
injured, render first aid, get the data report and keep the traffic moving. He may have to cope 
with a holdup or the commission of some other serious crime when he will have to bring into 
play his power of observation, his knowledge of human nature and his native cunning (sic.)’ 
(Cahalane, 1929, p. 166).

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and problem-solving methodologies for police training

Training is the keystone in the process which assists in the development of these necessary 
skills and, therefore, consideration must be given to what can best achieve this targeted 
end capability.

So why consider andragogy?

While there are many theories of adult learning, one of the best known of them is the theo-
ry of adult learning known as andragogy (Knowles, 1980). Andragogy places at its centre the 
premise that there are significant differences between the way in which adults and children 
learn,  and  seeks  to  focus  on  those  different  needs  exhibited  by  adult  learners.  Knowles 
differentiated between andragogy and pedagogy, as viewed in the traditional sense, and 
thought it important to consider what exactly each brought to learning.

Knowles (1980) stated that ‘the pedagogical model assigns to the teacher full responsibility 
for making all decisions about what will be learned, how it will be learned, when it will be 
learned, and if it has been learned’ (pp. 55-56). Andragogy, on the other hand ‘is a theory 
which is vastly in contrast to the traditional pedagogical model and it advocates both the 
self-directed learning concept and the teacher as the facilitator of learning’ (Knowles, 1980, 
p. 57).

‘The five assumptions underlying andragogy describe the adult learner as someone who (1) 
has an independent self-concept and who can direct his or her own learning, (2) has accumu-
lated a reservoir of life experiences that is a rich resource for learning, (3) has learning needs 
closely related to changing social roles, (4) is problem-centred and interested in immediate ap-
plication of knowledge, and (5) is motivated to learn by internal rather than external factors’ 
(Merriam, 2001, p. 5).

Long (2004) mentioned the concept which supports ‘the unimaginative traditional view 
of the adult learner represents the adult as a big child’ (p. 24), while the needs of the adult 
learner dictate that they need to know and understand why they are learning, how it ap-
plies to their lives and how it can benefit them. A child will attempt to achieve prescribed 
levels of success whereas an adult will need further and more expansive meaning and ap-
plication put to the learning. However, it should also be noted that most adult learners pos-
sess high levels of motivation and task-orientation. This adult need for fulfilment, and prac-
tical direction to their learning, is central to the theory of andragogy, and life-long learning 
in general (Laal and Salamati, 2012).

89

Implications of andragogy for instruction

Galbraith (2004), when expressing the purpose of teaching adults, stated that it is the facili-
tation of personal growth which is at its core. This development should be done with the 
aim of improving ‘the professional, social and political aspects of learners’ (p. 3). This point 
can be broadened as it is directly indicative of the student-centred approach applied in 
the use of andragogy. The ‘learner leader’ is there to facilitate the growth, not to direct it in 
a pedagogical fashion. Even though the instances and circumstances of when adult learn-
ing takes place may change, it is this central pivot of the process which must be remem-
bered. The importance of the facilitator does not diminish with the taking of this approach. 
It is essential that the facilitator of adult learning is accessible and supportive throughout 
the process. The facilitator must remain accessible and continue to be regarded as a re-
source.

Knowles  (1980)  also  considered  the  importance  of  the  ‘learning  climate’  (p.  46)  for  adult 
learners, and saw it as imperative that the physical environment and the psychological cli-
mate is conducive to creating a secure and supportive place in which adults can learn. The 
option of questioning that which is being presented to them and not just having to accept 
it because the ‘teacher’ says so is a core climate requirement for adult learners in this regard. 
What should not be separated from the creation of this environment is the behaviour of 
the facilitator towards the learners. To bring it back to basics, the consideration that you are 
in fact planning to address adult learners must be included in lesson planning, to ensure 
the creation of a stimulating learning environment. The adult learner is the most impor-
tant focus of all the orbiting decisions and agreements as the adult learner is experienced, 
motivated, self-directed and ready to learn. What a platform for a facilitator or programme 
designer to begin from?

Learning from problems

Barrows and Tamblyn (1980) defined problem-based learning (PBL) as ‘the learning that re-
sults from the process of working towards the understanding of a resolution of a problem’ 
(p. 1). Problems are presented to students and are then used as the centre from which the 
enhancement of problem-solving, critical thinking and the development of independent 
learning skills can grow. The process is student-centred and refers to the fact that the main 
responsibility for learning is placed squarely on the shoulders of the students. The PBL ap-
proach first developed in the field of medical education and it involved the embedding of 
the learning process in problems, or scenarios, based in real-life. This approach soon drew 
attention from other educational fields as to its further application.

The approach is grounded in the constructivist approach to learning (Ultanir, 2012) and as 
such follows the associated assumptions which proffer that: 1. knowledge is constructed 

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and problem-solving methodologies for police training

individually and socially from interactions with the environment; 2. different phenomena 
invite multiple, related perspectives; 3. knowledge is anchored in relevant contexts; and, 
4. meaning and thinking are connected to the culture and community in which we inter-
act (Hung et al., 2007). This constructivist, student-centred approach ‘empowers learners to 
conduct research, integrate theory and practice, and apply knowledge and skills to develop 
a viable solution to a defined problem’ (Savery, 2006, p. 12).

Andragogy and PBL in police training

‘Educational theorist Jerome Bruner suggests that a curriculum ought to be built around 
the  great  issues,  principles  and  values  that  society  deems  worthy  of  continual  concern’ 
(Rippa, 1969, cited in Glenn et al., 2003). While Bruner wrote about education, Glenn et al. 
(2003) commented that his vision ‘is no less applicable to the education of those who serve 
the public’ (p. 51). Therefore, the changes in society which have seen police forces begin 
to adopt more community-focused policing strategies should also be considered as influ-
ences on the choice of training selected to enable the successful implementation of these 
strategies.

Depending  on  circumstance,  different  training  models  require  the  consideration  of  the 
principles of both pedagogy and andragogy. In this situation, both sets of principles should 
not be considered as opposites but as methods of achieving the best experience possible 
for  the  learners.  Knowles  (1984)  reminded  us  that,  while  andragogy  should  be  acknowl-
edged as being a model of learning which includes certain assumptions about how adults 
learn, the pedagogical model should not be discarded as a method of learning. Rather than 
seeing pedagogy and andragogy as in opposition, and pitting them against each other, 
they should be seen as two ends of a spectrum (p. 43).

The suggestion that pedagogical training methods still remain dominant over those con-
sidering  andragogical  methods  in  police  training  is  one  that  has  been  argued  by  many 
(Birzer  and  Tannehill,  2001;  McCoy,  2006;  and,  Marrenin,  2004,  cited  in  Ryan,  2008).  Birzer 
(1999) suggested that there must be a ‘symbiosis’ between the implementation of a self-
directing training environment and the support which is given to police officers working 
under  the  community  policing  ethos.  The  further  suggestion  that  ‘many  similarities  ex-
ist between the andragogy theory and the community policing philosophy’ (Birzer, 1999, 
p. 18) also supports the premise that incorporating both mindsets into the learning environ-
ment will develop the problem-solvers sought by modern day policing.

Glenn et al. (2003) have detailed the case for restructuring the training methods used in 
police training and make the case for training which facilitates the development of skills 
essential for community police officers, but point out the necessity in some circumstances 
to stand by the traditional method of instruction. When giving instruction in the firing of 

91

a weapon, Glenn et al. (2003) agree ‘there is little need or desire for individual variation’ (p. 
57), as precise, exact and definite instruction is required in the use of the weapon. However, 
the individual police officer will be able to make decisions surrounding the use of the fire-
arm, in a way that goes beyond the rote learning of how to operate it in different situations, 
once training has been structured to reflect the necessity.

A change of mindset is required which embraces the pedagogical model alone, to a model 
which embraces the principles of adult learning in a positive and meaningful way, along 
with the view already held. The differences in the needs of the learner at the centre of both 
of these models will now be contrasted. Peace (2006) stated that this view must be taken to 
ensure training may be transformed to meet the needs of society and that ‘the cornerstone 
of the success of the community-oriented neighbourhood policing strategy must now rest 
with the foundation training provided’ (p. 336).

Gianakis et al. (1998, p. 486) contended that the requirements for a new approach to polic-
ing communities need to be supported by changes in the support structures of the police 
organisation. These support structures must include the training afforded to its members.

‘By re-organising the police force into a community-oriented, decentralised and independent 
organisation with participatory management we can get both satisfied customers and satis-
fied employees. Police must engage in community-based processes related to the production 
and maintenance of local human and social capital. The means by which these goals are to 
be achieved are through the development of strong relationships and institutions and indi-
viduals in the community’ (Feltes, 2002, p. 53).

Reith (1956) explained that the policing concept embarked upon by the first commissioners 
of the London Metropolitan Police was:

‘…unique in history and throughout the world because it derived not from fear but almost 
exclusively from public cooperation with the police, induced by them designedly by behaviour 
which secures and maintains for them the approval, respect and affection of the public’ (p. 
140).

The context of teaching is vitally important in achieving such interaction and community 
integration. Tharp et al. (2000, cited in John-Steiner and Mahn, 2003) stated that effective 
teaching requires teachers ‘to seek out and include the contexts of students experiences 
and their local communities’ points of view and situate new academic learning in that con-
text’ (p. 134). This contention that learning, development and teaching takes place in a so-
cial and historical context is furthered by Vygotsky (1994) when he stated the importance of 
knowing where and when a person is from cannot be ignored. Birzer (1999) attested to the 
importance of the training curriculum in training police officers, both at their induction and 
throughout their career. The structured, formal way in which training is approached puts 

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and problem-solving methodologies for police training

a high emphasis on expertise but ‘puts undue stress on students and does not encourage 
effective learning or support the community policing mission’ (p. 18).

Peace  (2006)  goes  on  to  say  that  ‘behaviourist  teacher-centred  tuition  is  effective  in  ad-
dressing the need for programmed instruction, while the humanist student-oriented ap-
proach will succeed in enabling affective issues to be explored’ (p. 346). While the use of 
adult learning principles is not suitable in all areas of training, in this instance, to achieve 
the  skills  required  to  foster  a  community  policing  ethos  within  An  Garda  Síochána,  it  is 
a method which is applicable.

‘The  training  conducted  in  the  police  academies  should  highlight  self-directed  learning  on 
the police recruit’s part. This can go hand-in-hand with community policing. For community 
policing to be successful police officers have to be self-starters. When they (the police officers) 
discover a problem they will be expected to solve it in cooperation with members of various 
groups in the community. What better place to implement the self-starter role of a police of-
ficer than in a police recruit training academy? Recruits in training academies will benefit from 
an environment that incorporates many of the principles from the andragogy model of learn-
ing’ (Birzer et al., 2000, p.18).

While the ‘traditional’ method of police training just referred to is behaviourist in its essence, 
and takes a teacher-centred approach to learning, where topic experts give their knowl-
edge to students as passive recipients (Werth, 2009), this process does not altogether sup-
port the development of analytical, critical decision-making and problem-solving in most 
cases (Birzer, 2003; McCoy, 2006). It is on this point that many writers state the benefits of 
problem-based learning as a method of police training, over, or at the very least in conjunc-
tion with, traditional police training methods. The similar skills required by their students 
to carry out their roles, albeit in different environments and situations, brought police edu-
cators to examine the abilities of PBL as a tool to foster the use of critical thinking, prob-
lem-solving and self-directed learning. Police training facilities began to engage with the 
concept and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police training centre at Regina, Saskatchewan 
became the first to implement the methodology in the 1990s (Werth, 2009). Soon after, law 
enforcement agencies throughout North America and around the world followed the lead.

While police training has used the PBL method to develop certain skills, it is accepted that 
there are some topics within police training which still utilise a more traditional, behaviour-
ist  style  method  of  training  (Moody,  2010),  with  these  topics  including  firearms  training, 
self-defence and physical training. While literature and research has shown that approaches 
embracing andragogy and problem-solving have their place in the training of police of-
ficers, it should be remembered that these approaches are not designed to replace more 
traditional pedagogical models of training, but to work hand in hand with them to address 
the needs of those undergoing the training.

93

Police training in an Irish context

At the foundation of the Irish State in 1922, An Garda Siochana (translated as Guardians of 
the Peace), the Irish Police Service, embraced a community policing approach to the deliv-
ery of its service in the community. This concept of policing sees the police as being part of 
the community, working in the community, and solving the problems which the commu-
nity experiences. While community policing was central to the ethos of An Garda Siochana 
from its inception a focus on the core skills required to carry out such policing needs to 
constantly considered. The skills and techniques include the ability to problem-solve, make 
decisions, critically analyse situations and exhibit a level of confidence while doing so. Some 
are naturally possessive of these skills, while others need them to be garnered, developed 
and realised. Therefore, it is essential that every effort is made to allow this process to take 
place while undergoing all manners of training.

Encouragement  the  ethos  of  community  policing  and  problem-solving  in  the  training 
environment will assist in the development of skills and allow transfer of learning to the 
workplace. If you can show significance in the outside world, for the skills being learned 
in training, then the transfer will take place from the classroom to the outside world. This 
acknowledgement by An Garda Siochana that community policing is central to the work 
and ethos of the organisation reinforces the need for training to support and develop the 
achievement of this ethos. McCoy (2006, p. 79) stated that it is essential that there is a shift 
away from traditional police training methods to enable the achievement of the required 
skills  for  community  policing  to  be  achieved.  A  move  from  teacher-centred  instruction 
must make way for learner-centred training.

‘Community policing does not allow the police officer to use his patrol car as a shield from the 
public. Instead, community policing demands that the officer establish trust, communication 
and ultimately, a problem solving partnership with the citizens he or she serves to make a last-
ing difference in the community. We no longer want to diffuse a problem, we want to solve it’ 
(Birzer et al., 2000, p. 8).

As a result of the direction chosen for the delivery of the policing service in Ireland, the 
development of the individual in this regard is essential. No longer can all training be teach-
er-centred and pedagogical in its essence. Therefore, the relevance of adult learning and 
problem-based learning theories to police training is clearly evident, when what is being 
sought from police officers is examined and what can be delivered using these theories is 
acknowledged. Current Garda Siochana basic training is built around the PBL approach to 
instruction and integrates the learning of police procedures with the development of the 
capacity to problem-solve and make decisions. This approach to achieving a more applied 
and analytical police officer is central in the delivery of the BA in Applied Policing which all 
new entrants to the organisation need to complete successfully.

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and problem-solving methodologies for police training

Conclusion

While traditional police training is based on a pedagogical model which revolves around 
discipline and curriculum content, changes in policing requirements within modern soci-
ety challenge the types of police officers which this sole method of training may produce. 
Positive  working  relationships,  and  community  interaction,  between  the  police  and  the 
public  are  essential.  There  is  a  place  and  a  time  for  the  use  of  pedagogical  instruction, 
yet the consideration of other methods of training is viewed as being essential, as the in-
troduction of self-directed learning principles will encourage the further development of 
students.  Having  learned  how  to  problem-solve  and  approach  situations  with  a  level  of 
analytical capacity perhaps not possible to achieve with traditional learning methods alone, 
will allow a transition from the learning environment to the operational policing arena. The 
expansion of the use of adult learning principles and PBL can move the training from the 
traditional teacher-centred situation to a more learner-centred one, therefore supporting 
the individual and society in the process.

An Garda Síochána is an organisation which realises this self-confidence in the individual as 
core to the implementation of the philosophy of community policing. The power of self-
confidence within the individual is essential in attaining a high level of engagement and 
communication with the community. This is why the context of learning is so important. 
Police officers operate in an individual capacity when making decisions on a constant basis. 
The ability to carry out such a process is not one which is granted to all, but it is one which 
can  be  learned  and  developed.  While  many  different  skill  sets  are  essential  to  the  effec-
tive working of the police service, problem-solving and decision-making are at the centre 
of these core skills and can be assisted in development using the learning interventions 
discussed.  While  these  interventions  are  essential  to  educating  police  officers  in  an  Irish 
context, it should be remembered that not all the current training that is delivered needs 
to be cast aside and redeveloped but rather complimented where possible by other ap-
proaches to learning.

95

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97

 Investigative Strategy: 
The application of strategic 
principles to criminal investigations

Michele Frisia
Squadra Mobile, Polizia di Stato, Novara,
Italy

Abstract
Strategy is a wide collection of ideas and insights that have been used since time immemorial to face 
the ‘fog of war’. In the last century the key concepts of strategy have moved into many other fields, 
such as economics and mathematics. The analysis presented in this paper applied the concepts of 
strategy to criminal investigations. In both fields a need exists to face and fight against a conscious 
opposition to win. In order to apply them to modern criminal investigations, the paper borrowed ideas 
from historical masters of strategy: Sun Tzu and Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara; von Clausewitz, Lawrence ‘of 
Arabia’ and Mao Zedong; John Boyd and Miyamoto Musashi; Hagakure, 36 Stratagems, but also the 
doctrine of special forces. The paper analyses how investigations are affected by ‘friction’ and lack 
of resource; how detectives could proficiently use knowledge of the antagonist, surprise, deceptions 
and stratagems; how speed, rhythm and timing, but also the adherence to principles of invisibility, 
irreversibility and completeness, could help to improve the results of criminal investigations. One of 
the  aims  of  this  paper  is  to  show  that  the  study  of  strategy  could  effectively  increase  the  ability  of 
investigators to solve cases. We hope that the paper will trigger a debate about the incorporation of 
strategic thinking into investigative practice and training.

Keywords:
criminal investigations, strategy, strategic investigation, investigations strategy, tactics

9999

Figure 1 — The agent wants to 
reach the objective. The easiest 
way is the direct one.

Some thoughts about strategy

‘Strategy’ has been defined in many ways by people who studied it: sometimes like an art, 
sometimes like a science, more often like both.

In defining what strategy is, it might be useful to explain what strategy is not. Strategy isn’t 
‘praxeology’, the study of human actions. Neither is it an easy way to find the best approach 
to do something, putting actions in the right sequence. It isn’t either a collection of tips and 
tricks nor a wide and broader look, a deeper analysis, a vision, which help us to look forward 
in the future. All these features are maybe characteristics of a good strategy, but they aren’t 
enough to define completely what strategy is.

For example, understanding how to climb a mountain, finding the best way to store books 
in  a  library,  planning  the  economic  balance  for  the  next  10  years  of  our  community;  all 
these activities refer to ‘static’ elements, that need to build carefully an all-embracing plan 

Figure 2 — The agent can’t 
reach the objective if an 
opposition stands in front of it.

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Figure 3 — To reach the 
objective the agent could use 
force, to break through the 
opposition. This could be called ‘a 
strategy’ but in fact doesn’t have 
a strategic content.

Figure 4 — Otherwise, the agent 
could find a strategic solution

or programme, but which don’t present the essential element of strategy: the existence of 
an active and conscious opposition.

The existence of this kind of opposition changes the rules of the game. Every action we 
take forces our ‘enemy’ to change his plans, and each change forces us to review our plans. 
Fighting a war, playing chess, catching a criminal, are all activities which involve an ‘adver-
sary’ who wants the same things we want, or wants to stop us from reaching our goals, or 
both. So strategy is intensely dynamic, because the active and conscious opposition from 
our ‘antagonist’ changes steadily and continuously our plans.

Strategy takes account of these actions and reactions, of this recursion, pushing us to re-
main flexible and to develop appropriate plans to still achieve the objective.

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Figure 5 — Actually our 
adversary is conscious and 
dynamic, and so he will carry 
out counter moves.

The logic of strategy is not like a straight line and neither is it like a circle: it’s more like a spi-
ral moving in time from us to the adversary and back to us, while shifting itself a little every 
time. For this reason, the logic of strategy is called ‘paradoxical’ (Luttwak, 2001): it’s anything 
but  linear.  Its  language  is  very  difficult  to  understand  for  people  used  to  building  solid 
but ‘non-strategical’ plans because strategy continually feeds on itself with complexity and 
with recursion, and requires also a ‘liquid mind’ ready to change in a flexible way.

Also,  strategy  is  not  about  technique.  Sometimes  people  use  the  adjective  ‘strategic’  to 
describe some type of planes, missiles, rifles or instruments. These things can push their 
effectiveness far into space or time, but these capacities don’t have anything to do with 
strategy (see below).

Finally, strategy is not tactics. It is very easy to  confuse  the two, because often strategic 
principles  can  be  applied  without  any  change  also  in  the  tactical  fields.  This  feature  of 
strategy is very interesting but also add complexity to the concept. Firstly, ideas, principles, 

Figure 6 — If we follow 
a strategical principle, the best 
way to achieve our objective 
is also a longer way: this is the 
paradoxical logic of strategy.

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Figure 7 — It’s important that 
tactics sum each other up in 
a proper manner, to pursue 
objectives of strategy.

Figure 8 — Otherwise, if 
tactics are unable to support 
each other in a strategical way, 
it’s impossible to reach the 
objective.

intuitions, rules of a ‘level’ of strategy influence that level in a spiral way, like we have ex-
plained above. Secondly they affect directly and strongly higher levels of strategy (13). So, for 
example, technical innovations and scientific discoveries about weapons change directly 
technical confrontation between attack and defence (i.e. spear-shield). But the changes in 
this technical level will soon influence the tactical level, affecting the way people fight with 
new weapons and armours. Also tactical choices made by leaders on the combat fields will 
clash one against the other, altering geometry and time-management on the battlefield, 
changing the strategical way to plan the entire war.

(13) Many authors, many doctrines, considered a different number of levels in war. Tactical and strategic levels 
can be found in the ancient scripts. Russian doctrine and WWII practice introduced the operational level, 
placed in the middle of the first two, and afferent to carry out the operations. And finally strategy expanded 
in several subcategories: grand strategy (for national interests), theatre strategy, operational strategy, global 
strategy, grand tactics, and so on. On the other side, the lowest level, the technical, has interest for strategy. 
Today we referee to all this levels as ‘levels of strategy’.

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Some thoughts about criminal investigations

Investigation can be defined as the inquiry, the looking into, the examination of elements 
about something that is not known in order to ascertain facts or information. This search 
is not an aim in itself. The first phase, ‘collection’ of elements, serves for the second phase, 
finalised to assembly a ‘reconstruction’ and to understand as much as possible of what we 
are investigating about.

All different kind of investigations can be divided into two main groups. The ones that have 
an opponent who actively works to prevent us from achieving our goals (like criminal inves-
tigations); and the others, which don’t have this kind of obstacle (like historical or scientific 
investigations).

Only criminal investigations will be considered here in this paper, because of the presence 
of a conscious opposition, of an active opponent, that is the linking element to strategy.

Here it’s important to say something about our ‘opponent’. In this paper it’s irrelevant if 
the ‘antagonist’ is a single person, several people who jointly commit a crime or a group of 
criminals used to work together. The theoretical frame doesn’t change neither if a conspir-
acy is uncovered nor if a criminal organisation is involved. The principles and ideas of strat-
egy are so strong that they can be successfully applied to a wide range of ‘adversary’ types.

Otherwise it’s important to distinguish between investigations directed only to the past (a 
typical case is the classical homicide investigation) and others directed to the future (like 
those  involving  drug  dealing  or  terrorism).  Obviously,  every  investigation  involves  either 
research about the past as well as expectations about the future, but the latter one is much 
more important for strategic planning, because the past is now written while the future will 
depend to some extent on what the ‘antagonist’ chooses. For example, at the start of the 
investigation of a homicide, most of the early activities do not involve any direct contact 
with the ‘adversary’. Detectives will search for clues and evidence, will analyse phone and 
surveillance records, and so on. But when detectives will begin to interview people, their 
actions could reverberate far away from them (because of people talking with other peo-
ple, or the press writing about inquiries, etc. …). Then the ‘adversary’, even without direct 
confrontations, could understand that detectives are doing ‘something’, and maybe also 
anticipating what they do.

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Strategy applied to investigations

Von Bismarck (probably never) said: ‘Fools say that they learn by experience. I prefer to profit 
by others’ experience’ (Liddell Hart, 1961: 3). Strategy, a complex and deep discipline, has its 
origins in the military world with the aim of building a complex set of principles that could 
help future generations in the difficult and changing environment of war. History has taught 
us that strategic principles work and work well, so the insights and methods of strategy suc-
cessfully migrated to the worlds of economics, psychology, diplomacy, mathematics and to 
many other fields (Bozzo, 2012). So we think that their application to criminal investigations 
can effectively be useful and successful.

The general objective of this work is to apply ideas, principles and methods of strategy to 
criminal investigations, in order to obtain an advantage during their execution.

The frame of our study is a criminal investigation against an active and conscious opposi-
tion (one, two or several people) here referred to as the antagonist or adversary. This oppo-
sition generates a conflict that must be won. Our moves have effects and the adversary has 
two choices: staying still (because of unawareness, misunderstanding or conscious resolu-
tion) or manoeuvring against us (in all the many possible ways).

In the later sections we will discuss piece by piece all the different facets of the strategic 
world.

Friction
After the Age of Enlightenment many authors tried to describe war in a scientific way, as-
suming it was a mechanical system obeying mathematical laws. They failed. Only one of 
these authors achieved immortality by introducing a fundamental concept of strategy: fric-
tion (Clausewitz, 1832).

Because of friction, a real machine will never achieve the efficiency supposed by theory. At 
the same manner the ‘war machine’, composed of men, vehicles, weapons, logistics and 
many other parts, will never live up to what is idealised in the plan. A fighter must face fear, 
lack of information, exertion and chance, and all of them increase friction.

Equally, friction affects investigations. A surveillance camera out of order, a witness moved 
abroad,  an  ill  detective,  the  company  which  could  give  information  gone  bankrupt.  We 
could list many incidents which are able to dramatically change the proceeding of an inves-
tigation. The more complex the inquiry, the more friction we have to deal with.

Daily life repeats itself continuously and so friction naturally decreases to very low levels. 
Instead wars and crimes appear every time in a different way, in a different place, with differ-

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Figure 9 — Friction forces agent 
to change his plans.

ent problems, and therefore friction plays a major role in strategy, because the surrounding 
environment is so different from the social life environment.

We can’t eliminate friction, but we can minimise it. The key word is habit (Clausewitz, 1832), 
and  especially  getting  accustomed  to  difficulties,  experience  in  overcoming  obstacles, 
good and realistic training. But also the fortitude to achieve and accomplish the feat can 
help us to face friction (Tsunetomo, 1906). Finally it helps to have a simple, elegant and flex-
ible plan, which aims to reduce the discrepancy between what we aspire for and what we 
get.  Then  simplicity  becomes  a  fundamental  guideline  in  strategic  thinking  (Clausewitz, 
1832), through limitation of objectives, use of intelligence and exploitation of available in-
novation (McRaven, 1996). During investigations simplicity can help to control the unex-
pected and achieve goals faster.

Limited resources
Uncertainty is a typical fact in the world of strategy. It’s impossible to have a complete and 
certain view of the ‘battle’ field and this implies that nobody can be sure to obtain his goals. 
While uncertainty increases friction, a good plan can deal with this ‘dark blanket’ (Sun Tzu, 
circa 500 BC), this ‘fog that clouds views and minds’ (Clausewitz, 1832).

If we could know and do anything, anywhere, anytime, we wouldn’t need a strategy. But 
in  the  real  world  supplies  are  restricted  and  so  the  limitations  of  resources  are  essential 
elements of the strategy itself. Our task is to minimise waste and bad management, and 
rightly prioritise the goals we want to reach. Limited resources so emphasise the essence of 
strategy: making choices.

In the investigative field it can happen that only a few people have to face different fronts; 
some of which seem very promising while others less. But it often happens that priorities 
overturn each other. All investigative agencies have limited resources (men, vehicles, time 
and money) and this forces to consider wisely the prospects of success of every inquiry and 
furthermore to revise that evaluation whenever it’s necessary.

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Also the single inquiry suffers from forced choices, because of limitation of resources that 
implies to give up some investigative actions on behalf of others, even if this leads to ob-
taining less evidence.

Knowledge of the adversary
As seen, logic of strategy is ‘paradoxical’, because it doesn’t follow the ordinary and straight-
forward way we might expect (Luttwak, 2001). In fact, we and our ‘antagonist’ will actively 
react to the mutual attacks with reciprocal counter-moves. To accomplish successfully this 
task the knowledge of our antagonist is fundamental (Sun Tzu, circa 500 BC). Understand-
ing how he/she thinks and decides can help us to deduce what he/she thinks. This lets us 
find the paradoxical lines of our reciprocal interaction, which improve completeness of our 
information and reduce uncertainty and thus friction.

To understand a criminal, you have to know his environment, his background, his lifestyle 
and his beliefs. To forecast how people may respond to solicitations you have to get used 
to having to do with different kinds of people, because humans can react in a lot of strange 
and unpredictable ways.

For example, during an investigation involving wiretapping, the suspect may react to ap-
propriate stimulation. But kind and intensity of those reactions could be very diversified: an 
emotional person, unused to crime, may talk a lot to all his friends, when instead an experi-
enced criminal will avoid any conversation. To forecast criminal behaviour, we need to take 
into account not only personal background, but also the social disvalue rather than prestige 
of the committed crime: a suspect of child abuse will hardly confide his secret to anyone, 
while a histrionic robber may find pleasure while boasting of his successes.

Surprise
Knowledge of the adversary isn’t enough to contrast effectively his opposition. We have 
also to change our approach to the fight. This change means that we have to shift from our 
old type of thinking (static) to a new and different view (dynamic). It’s really important to 
decide where to concentrate our efforts: where the antagonist is unprepared (Sun Tzu, circa 
500 BC) and where he doesn’t defend himself (Sun Pin, circa 350 BC), to remove his options 
and to reduce its freedom of action (Liddell Hart, 1967). To obtain the most significant im-
pacts we have to choose our methods wisely (Musashi, 1642), to be accurate in our details 
but at the same time to maintain a broad view (Tsunetomo, 1906). The indirect approach 
requires choosing the line of least expectation, exploiting the line of least resistance, but 
especially not acting while our opponent is on guard and not renewing an attack along the 
same line or in the same form after it has once failed (Liddell Hart, 1967).

All this planning must not harden our mind and we must remain ready to seize the oppor-
tunities, even if they appear unexpected (Sun Tzu, circa 500 BC). During investigations for 
one kind of crime, it may happen that we uncover a different felony. Obviously it’s impor-

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tant to evaluate the seriousness of the two criminal offences, and the jurisdiction on them, 
but at the same time we shouldn’t close our view only on our primary task, otherwise we 
could lose a cheap chance to ‘pilfer a goat’ (Stratagem XII — Anonymous, circa 500 AD).

Gaining surprise is a good way to bypass the antagonist, but surprise costs (Luttwak, 2001). 
In fact, to obtain surprise we need to use some resources, diverted away from our primary 
task, which becomes harder to gain. The cost of surprise carries with it the added risk of 
failing in our primary action. In history many warriors and theorists, for fear or scepticism 
towards its costs, avoided surprise, deception and stratagems, while few men built on them 
their fame and success.

If  we  want  to  pursue  and  seek  surprise,  we  can  use  a  lot  of  ways:  diversion,  stratagems, 
speed, rhythm and timing. But also the variation of the methods, that can affect all levels 
of fight, is effective. At a technical level, the change of methods can obtain a sure and rapid 
win. For example, when wiretapping was first used in investigations it worked very well in 
collecting evidence, but after a while criminals understood the nature of the threat and 
changed their habits. They shifted to safer methods of communications like writing on pa-
per (downgrading) or social networking (upgrading). But with technical progress even in-
ternet software has been intercepted without too many hardships, and so criminals turned 
back to be easy preys; but soon the cycle started again when they found new ways to avoid 
wiretapping, and so on. This sequence of cyclical phases is typical of the contraposition be-
tween attacks and defences (effect ‘spear-shield’), which shows continue rollovers between 
the supremacy of one over the other, it’s inherent in the nature of strategic world (Joxe, 
1991). This effect propagates itself to the superior tactical level, because the change in the 
use of techniques influences the way of fighting and so affect the tactics. So any changes in 
the way of conducting battles spread their effects up to the strategic level (Luttwak, 2001).

Change can vice versa begin at the high strategic level. We could on purpose elaborate 
a new strategic way of acting to obtain surprise, and then pack some suitable tactical tools, 
which maybe could require new technical elements. This inverse way happens less often, 
in fact only a great strategic can orchestrate so complex a task. It could happen for example 
when a strategic plot is built against crime, starting with a large view plan, the introduction 
of new and powerful laws, which requires special teams, special investigative techniques, 
special equipment.

The surprise can be interpreted as a suspension of strategic concept (Luttwak, 2001). In fact, 
strategy deals mainly with prediction of antagonist behaviour and construction of a smart 
deployment able to disjoint the antagonist force. But when our opponent is taken by sur-
prise, our task is easy: the road ahead is clear to the target. Strategy works to obtain surprise, 
but once obtained its logic is useless, until the surprise runs out alone and we need to deal 
newly with strategy.

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Figure 10 — Surprise in 
a suspension of the entire 
predicament of strategy. If the 
surprise reaches its goal, the 
strategy is (for a while) no longer 
useful and the agent can go 
straight forward towards the 
objective.

Deception
To get surprise one can resort to deception. Warfare is the way of deception (Sun Tzu, circa 
500 BC) but also criminal investigations (when the law allow us to do so) feeds on it. In fact, 
if our antagonist has a clear and reassuring view of our confrontation, it will be very hard to 
move freely and to reach our objectives. Thus, we have to masquerade everything.

Deception can be of several types, according to magic theory (14) (Rampin, 2005), but the 
principles are two: to hide the truth, or to put out a falsehood. This can then be done by 
action or by omission, which in criminal investigations is a very important resource, because 
it allows us (usually) to avoid breaking the law.

Three useful tools that again arise from illusionism, help us to hide or to show what we want. 
The first is misdirection: the opponent’s attention is pushed elsewhere while we lay our trail. 
The second is timing: time is used to lower the antagonist’s defences (for example: showing 
the same thing several times and then applying a slight change, or waiting with patience 
for the right time to act to obtain the best effect, or changing the rhythm, or synchronising 
the various converging branches of an operation). The last tool is scripting, that works if we 
are able to build a story that is credible for the adversary. It’s important to calibrate the story 
on the foe’s capabilities; with a low level antagonist we have to build a complete and solid 
plot, while with a smart opponent we must work on a story full of holes that the adversary 
should fill by himself, reinforcing in that way his trust in what he hasn’t got by others but 
has built on his own.

(14) The military and intelligence made large use of deception and sometimes also of magicians. Soviet 

Maskirovka was an art able to move in one day thousands of tanks, but fake tanks, and to hide real tanks 
within metres from the enemy. The British ‘A’ Force during WWII enlisted counterfeiters, illusionists and 
screenwriters to build from nothing false combat units, fake attack plans and amazing stories of all kind for 
the enemy.

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Deception helps us to achieve the unpredictability (Sun Tzu, circa 500 BC), that casts doubt 
on the adversary and makes his information incomplete and inaccurate. Deception allows 
you to ‘create something out of nothing’ (Stratagem VII — Anonymous, circa 500 AD).

Undercover operations obviously require the highest level of deception among all investi-
gative techniques, also because of the intense contact with the antagonist. But all inquiries 
can benefit from deception and from the ‘fog’ that can be projected on our foe. Deception 
is also of staggering use during interviews, controlled deliveries and other situations of di-
rect contact with criminals.

Stratagems
To induce deception and surprise you can use stratagems which have existed in war from 
the  beginning  of  time.  They  should  not  be  confused  with  strategy.  Stratagems  are  only 
a little part of the strategic insights and in particular they are the complementary element 
of planning. In fact, planning must have a rigid core which could prevent strategy to fully 
express its flexible characteristics. Stratagems instead ‘live in murky waters’ (Anonymous, 
circa 500 AD); a stratagem causes rapid and unpredictable changes which could make up 
the loss in adaptability and originality produced by a too rigid plan.

Stratagems are very important and their use can greatly change the effectiveness of our 
action,  because  ‘who  is  skilled  in  designing  tricks  is  nearly  inexhaustible’  (Sun  Tzu,  circa 
500 BC). In every field of knowledge (war, chess, law …) lives a wide tradition of stratagems 
for that specific sector, but there are also strategic guidelines about their general composi-
tion. One of the most famous collection are the 36 stratagems (Anonymous, circa 500 AD), 
considered by Mao Zedong too dangerous for publication. We have already seen applica-
tions of some of these stratagems in the text, but let us look carefully at two of them which 
are of special value for criminal investigations.

Stratagem XIX, ‘Remove the firewood from under the cauldron’ (Anonymous, circa 500 AD). It’s 
impossible to touch the cauldron when is hot, so we have to move our attention to the ori-
gin of the heat and attack it. At the same manner when we deal with a bandit or a criminal 
organisation which is too difficult to attack directly, one way is to cut off the sources of its 
strength: money, friendship, weapons, workers …

Stratagem XXVIII, ‘Pull down the ladder after the ascent’ (Anonymous, circa 500 AD). The pow-
er of this stratagem lies in its relentlessness. If we are able to push and lead the antagonist 
in an apparently safe direction, thus putting him where we want him, we can then derive 
the greatest advantage. For example, when we aren’t able to find the ‘den’ of a criminal, 
where we know he holds important evidence of his guilt, the only way is to bring him to 
lead us to the stash (combining here also with Stratagem III, ‘Kill with a borrowed knife’), fak-
ing a non-existent danger.

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But stratagems aren’t confined to oriental culture. During WWII the British Army showed the 
world not only how many stratagems it was capable of using (Howard, 1995), but mostly 
the opportunity to use them at both the tactical and also the strategical level (Luttwak, 
2001).

Time (and OODA loop)
Everything about strategy deals constantly with time, although from different perspectives.

The first most obvious thing we have to consider is that time is irreversible, so whatever we 
do, we can’t go backward. Furthermore, limited resources force us to choose priorities and 
we have thus to give up something to get something else; time lost in this way is irretriev-
able.

Speed is also very important in strategy, especially when being outnumbered, as it is the 
case of the Special Forces (McRaven, 1996). Also in investigations speed is crucial because 
the flow of time changes the state of crime scenes and erases the evidence. Furthermore, 
over time the power of criminals continues to grow, especially if it’s fed by a constant flow 
of money. So it’s often better to operate quickly, however speed must not be overstated, 
because it must be compensated with other important factors (first of all safety).

Rhythm and timing are also critical in clashes with the foe (Musashi, 1642): if we fail them, 
we risk losing in spite of our superiority.

Figure 11 — OODA loop.

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These concepts of time are wonderfully condensed in Boyd’s theory (Boyd, 1987 — Osinga, 
2007) of OODA loop (15). It starts with the observation of the environment, of the informa-
tion and of the evolving circumstances. Orientation is based on analysis and synthesis, in 
which our experiences, our culture, our traditions and our being are also included. All this 
leads us to a take a decision which, once taken, becomes action. That is not the end, be-
cause action changes the environment and brings us back to a new observation, restarting 
the loop. Don’t forget that our adversary treads an identical loop and the key for success 
is  to  operate  inside  the  opponent’s  decision  loop.  Control  of  speed,  rhythm  and  timing 
lets us tread the OODA loop faster than the adversary and this lowers the quality of our 
opponent’s loop, overloading his system and disrupting his ability to react, and this takes 
us to victory. The strength of this simple idea is that it works at every level of strategy, from 
technical to tactical and up to grand strategy.

Also in investigations we can find the same complex dynamic of two loops that try to influ-
ence the opponent’s decision loop. For example, at the beginning of the confrontation, 
the contrast between us and our opponent grows slowly, but when we are able to collect 
massive amounts of evidences and to cut the foe’s attempts to operate, adversary’s system 
collapses quickly against itself.

Irreversibility
The time dimension of strategic dynamics brings us to a natural but really important result: 
the irreversibility of investigative acts.

Figure 12 — AT TOP: two 
similar OODA loops. None of 
the opponent prevails over the 
other. AT BOTTOM: the blue loop 
is faster and more efficient than 
the red one. Its output is greater, 
so the blue is able to work within 
the antagonist’s loop, degrades its 
effectiveness, reduces its quality.

(15) It is interesting to note that Boyd’s ideas were born as a result of his winning fighter pilot activities. In the 
same manner, Musashi came to the theorisation of strategy starting from his winning sword fights. This 
shows that strategy principles very often work also at lower levels then can be discovered at low levels and 
are later generalised to higher levels. 

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Inexperienced operators could think that searches, wiretapping, interviews and forensic sci-
ences are like choices on a menu. During investigations we may choose one or the other, 
according to the situation and the ‘taste’. This is not the true.

Every action we take have to be carefully thought through, because once done it’s irretriev-
able and a lot of opportunities are burnt.

Also, our opponent feels directly the effects of some acts of investigations. For example, 
in a simple way, if we search a suspect’s house, that may well change his way of acting, af-
fecting the continuation of our inquiry that could be absolutely contaminated. This is the 
reason why every action must be carefully assessed and, with a broad view, this is one of 
the basic reasons why strategy counts during investigations.

Invisibility
Ancient theorists of war built strong strategy theories, but all of them failed in predicting 
the ability of the few to win over the many. After Napoleon and the Restoration, guerrillas 
warfare started to be used widely in the world. T. E. Lawrence ‘of Arabia’ was the first to 
systematise  the  principles  of  guerrilla  warfare  (Lawrence,  1921  and  1927).  It  was  he  who 
caught the essentials of the matter: absence of a front, technique of ‘hit and run’, stock up 
by the material subtracted from the adversary and so on. He also outlined the key strategies 
used by the men involved in this kind of warfare: mobility, flexibility, resistance, intelligence, 
cleverness, knowledge of territory, courage. It’s amazing to find out that these are also the 
qualities of the modern ideal investigators.

Mao Zedong expanded Lawrence’s principles of guerrilla warfare. Mao used to attack only 
when he had overwhelming numerical superiority, starting with small goals and then mov-
ing to more complex objectives, like in the game of Gô (Zedong, 1936). The success of his 
method created a school, so other principles were added to the original, especially initia-
tives and instant decisions in the face of new situations (Giap, 1961) and the preference for 
night attacks (Guevara, 1960).

All  these  kinds  of  moves  are  well  suited  for  investigative  activities.  Also,  the  absence  of 
a ‘front’ makes guerrilla warfare much more similar to an investigation, rather than to classic 
war. Invisibility is a fundamental characteristic of investigations, because any knowledge on 
the part of the antagonist of our moves lets him gain a strategic advantage. Invisibility and 
irreversibility are thus closely connected.

Invisibility is achieved also by security. All the decisions of the investigative team must re-
main confidential, because obviously the best way to know the adversary’s intentions is to 
monitor them at their source. There are many ways in which information can leak out of 
a team: careless talking too much with friends, press or informer, losing papers, missing to 

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handle  asymmetry  during  interviews,  but  unhappily  also  illegal  access  to  databases  and 
corruption.

Completeness
To conclude this discussion, we have to face an argument that apparently is against strate-
gy, but is instead a necessary part of its application to criminal investigations. The ‘principle 
of completeness’ states that investigators have to search in all directions and to explore all 
possibilities, in order to obtain a complete view of the field investigated (Curreli and Minisci, 
2011). The law, in Italy, doesn’t expressly states this principle, which arises instead from the 
jurisprudential processing (16), while e.g. in the United Kingdom this principle is stated in the 
Criminal Procedure and Investigations Act 1996 (17).

If investigators restrict their perspective, they will find only what they are searching for, and 
maybe they will not see and not discover anything different from what they need to accuse 
the suspect. Completeness means to follow each lead, to expand in all directions, to take 
every chance.

It could seem ‘anti-strategic’ to follow all the possible lines of inquiry, instead of focusing 
efforts on the original track, considering that resources and time are limited, that we are 
looking for surprise and deception while chased by fog and friction. Simplicity would sug-
gest us to cut useless branches and it’s surely a good idea not to waste resources for useless 
activities.

But, a complete inquiry is much more genuine and solid and, even if it apparently goes 
against the economy of strategy, ‘strategically’ the efforts made during investigations will 
avoid a lot of effort during and after trials, caused by a miscarriages of justice.

Conclusions

Strategy is a wide system of ideas and insights that can help a fertile mind to face some-
thing that is unpredictable and chaotic, but full of relationships and connections. The ability 
to see the links can make the difference between victory and defeat.

During criminal investigations the ‘fog’ is thick as it is during a war, and the aim of this paper 
is to demonstrate that strategic principles can be useful for detectives in understanding 
how to conduct the inquiry.

(16) This principle was settled by Sentence number 88 of Italian Constitutional Court, 28 January 1991, but could 
find its foundation in the articles number 326 and 358 of Italian Code of Criminal Procedure (D.P.R. number 
447, 22 September 1988).

(17) S.3.5.: ‘When conducting an investigation, the investigator should pursue all reasonable lines of enquiry, whether 

these point towards or away from the suspect’.

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This is usually work that people learn by doing, while the theoretical studies are limited to 
law, psychology and criminology. Instead we think that the study of strategic principles can 
be very useful because it can change the minds of detectives, focus their brains, speed up 
results and can also avoid committing basic mistakes.

Strategic principles are not laws or rules, but are rather ideas that can help us to take the 
right decision at a critical moment. However before reaching their effectiveness, those prin-
ciples have to be properly absorbed by the mind and thus a good training is absolutely 
necessary.

We have seen in this paper that:

 — strategy deals with the contrast to an active and conscious opposition;

 — typical characteristics of strategy are its paradoxical logic and the recursion between 

our plans and our adversary’s plans;

 — investigations  can  be  opposed  to  a  single  criminal,  a  group  of  people  or  a  criminal 

organisation;

 — investigations can be oriented to the past, to the future or both. These options about 

people and time obviously changes our approach to investigations;

 — the existence of an active and conscious opposition during investigations leads us to 

use strategical principles.

We have then seen that:

1)  Everyday facts, chance, lack of information, exertion and fear can cause plans to fail: 
this results from friction. We always have to deal with friction and the only weapons we 
have are habit, experience, fortitude and training.

2)  Also limited resources affect our work and make uncertainty grow, so we have to priori-

tise our tasks.

3)  To reduce uncertainly we have to build an extensive knowledge of the antagonist, which 

lets us forecast our suspect’s behaviour.

4)  Also surprise and indirect approach lets us gain advantage over the antagonist, and this 
implies that we have to maintain our plans flexible. Surprise, which is a suspension of 
the strategic concept, has a cost that we have to evaluate.

5)  Deception is a way to obtain surprise, by the use of misdirection, timing and scripting.

6)  Also the use of stratagems can help us to obtain deception and surprise.

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7)  Time is an essential element of investigations and the right choice of speed, rhythm 
and timing is critical. The domination in the OODA loop can also give us supremacy 
over the antagonist.

8)  Time also counts in investigations because of its irreversibility. In fact, an investigative 

action, once made, cannot be undone.

9)  To avoid irreversibility, it is essential to maintain ‘invisibility’ until you decide to uncover 

your presence.

10)  Finally, completeness of investigations is not only a moral and ethical imperative, but 

also a strategic value.

Much more that this could and should be said on investigative strategy and more authors 
could be cited, but the teachings of the few men mentioned in this work, who lived in such 
different eras and cultures, have helped us during real criminal investigations and so we 
have selected them for gratitude before admiration.

We then close this work with an important and timeless consideration about limits of stra-
tegic thinking: the ultimate determinant is the man with the badge. This man is the final 
power. He has the control. He determines who wins (18).

(18) Original quote is: ‘the ultimate determinant […] is the man […] with the gun. This man is the final power […]. 

He’s the control. He determines who wins’ (Wylie, 1989: 77). This refers to the fact that strategy and tactics can 
affect war but, at the end, is the simple soldier with his gun who makes the hard job, who does what the 
commander needs to gain victory. Equally, strategy in criminal investigation encounters a limit because is 
the man with the badge who works in the field, who is finally able to catch the criminal.

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 Addressing emotions in police 
selection and initial training: 
a European study

Rui Coelho de Moura
ISCTE Business School and ICPOL — School of Police Sciences and 
Internal Security (ISCPSI), Lisbon,
Portugal
Nelson Campos Ramalho
ISCTE Business School, Lisbon,
Portugal

Abstract
Police  officers  have  a  strong  need  to  control  their  personal  emotions.  Research  that  is  focused  on 
emotions is scarce but greatly needed regarding core institutional practices such as police selection and 
initial training. The purpose of this exploratory study is to uncover the extent to which police selection 
and training comprehends and addresses emotional issues across Europe. We examined European 
police forces via CEPOL, surveying the selection and initial training career police personnel. Data were 
collected at country level with cross validation to ensure institutional representativeness. Data analysis 
made  use  of  the  MCA  technique  complemented  by  hierarchical  clustering  to  identify  patterns  and 
emerging  typologies.  Transcripts  from  open-response  questions  concerning  future  trends  in  police 
selection and training were analysed for content. Findings show differing axes for official and officer 
selection practices and initial training, as well as dissimilar training hours in psychological subjects. No 
discernible pattern emerged for either career regarding selection dimensions or psychology subjects 
in initial courses. These findings rule out a strategic alignment between selection and training and do 
not allow one to foresee a common policy across countries and careers. An organisational research 
framework must emerge in order to tackle these issues.

Keywords:
Police, emotion, recruitment and selection, training

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Emotions in police organisations

Emotions in law enforcement is an under-researched subject despite the central role emo-
tions play in the daily life of policemen (Daus and Brown, 2012). The nature of police work 
and constant exposure to risk may result in negative physical, psychological, and behav-
ioural outputs (Slate, Johnson and Colbert, 2007), which often translate into burnout and 
use of violence (Kop and Euwema, 2001). Many other health problems and deviant behav-
iours such as abuse of alcohol or drugs, and suicidal tendencies have been reported in po-
licemen (Adams and Buck 2010, Violanti et al. 2015). These problems are important not only 
for individuals, but also for society at large due to their potential for impairing police work 
by decreasing work quality and raising absenteeism and police violence, thereby compro-
mising public safety (Basinska et al. 2014).

Policemen  must  guard  their  emotions  during  moments  of  tension,  and  may  experience 
emotional dissonance and distress as a result (van Gelderen, Bakker, Konijn and Demerouti, 
2011). This has been found to predict burnout, especially when related to depersonalisation 
(Schaible and Gecas, 2010) with police exhibiting significantly rates significantly higher than 
other occupations. This is not surprising considering the inherent dangers and challenges 
police face in the course of their duties. However, police are also subject to a host of insti-
tutional  and  cultural  forces  that  are  likely  to  contribute  to  burnout.  This  study  examines 
the variety of ways self-processes, societal and institutional policing values, and demands 
for emotional presentation on police officers interact to produce burnout. Using data col-
lected from a survey of police officers in the Pacific Northwest (N = 109). Although some 
authors treat dissonance as a predictor of burnout and psychological strain, more recently 
it was found to fully mediate between deliberative dissonance acts of policemen and expe-
rienced psychological strain (van Gelderen, Bakker, Konijn and Binnewies, 2014).

Police officers are routinely exposed to situations that trigger intense negative emotions. 
These situations are typically characterised by unpredictability, risk, stress, anger, and anxie-
ty, and officers have a strong need for effective methods to control their emotions (Berking, 
Meier and Wupperman, 2010). However, the literature on models for managing emotions 
in organiational contexts is still at an early stage, proposing either typologies (Bolton and 
Boyd, 2003) or models that lack empirical support (Ashkanasy and Daus, 2002). Moreover, 
research is mostly focused on generic organisational contexts, especially of a business na-
ture, overlooking the context of specific organisations such as police.

A noteworthy exception is Shipman et al. (2011), who produced a report for the US Army tar-
geting a management model of emotions for leaders, which may be appropriate for police 
institutions due to the similarity of their underlying culture (Tuckey et al. 2012).

The state of the art made by both Gooty et al. (2009) and Ashkanasy and Humphrey (2011) 
indicates that despite the considerable collection of research there is still much to be done 

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to  build  cumulative  knowledge  and  systematise  sound  and  useful  theoretically  models. 
The problems identified (and challenges posed) by Gooty et al. (2009) were: 1) inconsistent 
definitions, 2) absence of affective dimensions (a result of the inability to aggregate discrete 
emotions), 3) absence of a longitudinal view of emotions, and 4) disregard for the context. 
Ashkanasy and Humphrey (2011) add to this list the focus on multilevel research. All in all, 
there seems to be a consensus that this is a field that deserves further attention.

At the HR practices level, emotions are especially addressed by focusing on recruitment 
and selection as well as initial training. However police selection research has received due 
attention  only  about  two  decades  ago  (Perez  and  Shtull,  2002)  and  Chenoweth’s  (1961) 
lamenting that police selection procedures replicated those in use in 1829 echoed still by 
the turn of the millennium (Decker and Huckabee, 1999). Literature on this topic is still very 
scarce (Landon and Arvey, 2007) and needed, especially in Europe (Beckman et al. 2003). 
Likewise, police initial training received criticism regarding the lack of attention to soft skills 
(e.g. Chappell, 2008) and especially those related with emotions, although they play a criti-
cal role in police daily life (Bar-On, Brown, Kirkcaldy and Thome, 2000). Because of this situa-
tion we opted to place a special focus on emotions regarding police HR practices driven by 
recruitment and selection practices and initial training. Both domains converge in increas-
ing the chances of building a future police force suited for the institutional purpose. The 
remainder of the literature review will cover both domains, seeking to determine the state 
of the art, with the ultimate goal of analysing the centrality of emotions and psychological-
related issues in this context.

Recruitment and selection in police organisations

The police recruitment process has the long standing purpose of providing law enforce-
ment  agencies  with  the  best  practices  to  attract  and  select  well-qualified  applicants 
(TCOLE, 1977), especially considering their role in dealing with global security challenges 
(Kilcullen,  2005).  The  need  for  a  high  standard  in  selection  (Hogarty  and  Bromley  1996) 
makes it a very costly and time-consuming process (Decker and Huckabee, 1999), which 
due to its complexity and lack of a clear job description has difficulties in attracting candi-
dates (Orrik, 2008).

By the end of the 1980s police selection research was not a strong subject in Academia 
(Pynes and Bernardin, 1988) and has only been the subject of analysis and discussion in 
early 2000 (Perez and Shtull, 2002). Currently, it is a worldwide research subject (e.g. Chan 
2006, Weitzer and Hasisi 2008) and a conflictual topic that is far from a consensual level of 
consistency, as noticeable by Detrick’s (2012) and Dantzker’s (2012) heated debate. On the 
basis of the theory-practice bridging process of scientific knowledge development (Van de 
Ven and Johnson, 2006) and within the realm of selection research, five issues should be 
covered (Salgado, Viswesvaran and Ones, 2001): prevalence of use, measurement and con-

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struct validity, criterion-related validity, incremental validity issues, and group differences. 
The subsequent review addresses these issues.

A US survey on selection procedures showed a widely shared core of police selection tests 
and procedures such as cognitive screening or MMPI (Ash et al. 1990). The preceding four 
decades witnessed a sharp increase in the use of personality and psychiatric tests as well 
as situational and assessment centres (cf. Hogarty and Bromley 1996) with the correspond-
ing decrease of cognitive, aptitude, and ability tests. Authors converge with Yuille’s (1986) 
findings that the growing employment of psychologists and psychological techniques co-
occurs with the degree of professionalisation of police selection.

Ho (1999) concluded that several police departments employed several psychometric and 
behavioral measures to select officers. The process was not unique, but generally includes 
some common techniques such as written test, psychological test, oral interview, agility 
test, medical examination, and background check. Psychological testing was considered 
a positive trend by Cochrane et al. (2003).

Regarding  measurement  and  construct  validity,  Arvey  et  al.  (1992)  found  physical  ability 
test events were based on two latent variables, namely strength and endurance (taken as 
proxies of the job performance). This suggests an underlying construct in use to rate appli-
cants. However, Lonsway (2003) found evidence that physical ability tests may have validity 
problems due to gender differences. The stigma about construct validation in personnel 
selection may explain the considerable scarcity of literature on this subject regarding police 
selection (Landon and Arvey, 2007).

Concerning criterion-related validity, Koper et al. (2001) report to the US National Institute of 
Justice suggests a proxy of police officer selection effectiveness judged by the rate of hired 
applicants who went through all the training until being ready for field work.

Weiss et al. (2000) approached the validity of several scales used in police selection, discuss-
ing their ability to predict the expected behaviour. Later, Weiss et al. (2003) detailed the 
MMPI-2 L scale as a tool in police selection.

Personality tests in police selection are addressed by Barrett et al. (2003), who point out that 
conscientiousness scales should not be considered as reliable evidence for police selection. 
Salgado et al. (2003) found that cognitive ability tests are more widely used in selection 
processes in Europe than in the United States.

Sellbom  et  al.  (2007)  examined  the  validity  of  scores  on  pre-hire  administration  of  the 
MMPI2 RC and substance abuse scales in predicting behavioural misconduct in police of-
ficers. They conclude that MMPI-2 may validly predict behaviours and attitudes in police 
candidates being RC scale the best predictor of misconduct. However Caillouet et al. (2010) 

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found otherwise. They also found that PSY-5 does add value for predicting police officer 
performance. MMPI-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) was found to be a defensible solu-
tion for police selection (Tarescavage et al., 2014) but may be plagued by positive response 
distortion (Detrick and Chibnall (2014) advising for additional investigation is needed about 
its validity).

Regarding incremental validity, following a controversy on the impact of intelligence tests 
on police candidates, personality tests were suggested by Bartol (1996) as a common alter-
native. NEO PI-R was found to explain police officer performance over and above MMPI-2 
and IPI (Chibnall and Detrick, 2003). Likewise, Sellbom et al. (2007) found that the MMPI-2 
and RC scale have incremental validity over and above clinical scales. Krause et al. (2006) 
also found that assessment centre ratings predicted training performance beyond cogni-
tive ability tests. Lievens and Patterson (2011) sustain that high-fidelity simulations (assess-
ment centres), low-fidelity simulations (situational judgement tests), and knowledge tests 
were all valid predictors of job performance. Incremental validity was higher for assessment 
centres, followed by situational judgement tests, and knowledge tests, in this order.

Finally, concerning group differences, TCOLE (1977) acknowledges the need to consider all 
the community groups in the selection process but fails to state how this translates as test 
norms. The minority group selection issue is ever since under scrutiny (Gray 2011). Perez and 
Shtull (2002) found negative issues linked with prejudice and bias in police selection pro-
cedures. Likewise Ben-Porat et al. (2012) concluded that to better deal with communities, 
police must improve its ability to hire with diversity and overcome preconceptions. Also, 
Waters et al. (2007) offer strategies to attract candidates from local ethnic minority com-
munities: involving families and the minority applicants, plus their distinct levels of skill and 
human capital in the selection procedures. Cashmore (2002) found such diversity policies 
to be counterproductive but most authors assume the intrinsic added value of a diversity 
policy in action.

Diversity management in police institutions is an understudied subject (Ewijk, 2011) espe-
cially regarding the technical issues underlying police selection and minorities. To achieve 
a varied ethnic work environment it is important to use both cognitive and non-cognitive 
ability tests in the police selection process (Meijer et al., 2008). Police organisations use sev-
eral recruitment and selection tools and processes to find the best candidate for the job. 
These methods are performed to reject applicants with ‘psychopathology or problematic 
personality characteristics that could interfere with their performance as a law enforcement 
officer’ (Weiss et al., 2013, p. 123).

Overall, despite the advancements, Beckman et al. (2003) concluded that more can be done 
in police recruitment, and that the selection research topic remains open, especially regard-
ing European police forces.

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Initial training in police organisations

Behavioural outcomes that police training should attain today differs from those in which 
training  was  semi-military  and  strict-discipline  based  (Foley,  2014).  Gravelle  and  Rogers 
(2011) emphasise the unarmed, courteous, patient, and restrained when confronted behav-
ioural guidelines that policing by consent implied.

Providing an initial training course is the common solution among police organisations to 
provide technical and interpersonal skills from the basis of all police work (McDermott and 
Hulse, 2012).

According  with  Mather  (2012)  British  efforts  to  standardise  training  faces  issues  because 
more  so  than  cognitive  development,  attitudinal  change  consolidation  is  critical  for  po-
lice work. Additionally, informal police culture and field experience may prevail over formal 
training (Haarr, 2001).

Along  with  the  development  of  policing  ethos,  training  faces  major  challenges  such  as 
greater  accountability  and  professionalism,  adopting  new  technologies,  and  a  relentless 
change in police culture (Foley, 2014).

Mather (2012) found that initial training syllabi were perceived as being overly focused on 
the criminal law with a lessened (but needed) attention to equipment, the role of police 
in society, and problem solving. The traditional focus on technical and task related training 
endures as the dominant subject areas overshadow soft skills, which are critical for commu-
nity policing (Chappell, 2008). Additionally, the format of training delivery, mostly based on 
didactic/instruction methods, is doubtfully trainee-centered, and hinders a developmental 
approach (Foley, 2014).

Literature is rich in discussions on training evolution, methods, and implications for police 
practice. Notwithstanding, it falls short on issues concerning emotional training in a profes-
sion that has been labelled as the most suppressive of emotional display (Denkers, 1986). 
Policemen with greater emotional stability and positive affect experience fewer negative 
psychological outcomes (Bar-On et al., 2000) and law enforcement agencies seek to filter 
out applicants with emotional instability (Marzella, 2000). Emotions are even more central 
when the institutional culture sees emotional display as a weakness countering the police 
identity and valued behaviour (Tuckey et al., 2012).

Overall, the lack of research targeting emotion-related issues in police recruitment, selec-
tion, and training is surprising considering the inability of personality and other non-clinical 
psychological evaluation methods to determine a candidate’s emotional stability (Oliver, 
2014). The ultimate goal of this study is to help fill that gap.

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Method

Sample and procedure
According to Bayley (1999), comparative international studies are essential to understand 
the characteristics of police forces, but still more than a decade has elapsed since that and 
the call for comparative studies, and it has yet to be answered (Ewijk, 2011). We opted to 
target European police forces via the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Train-
ing — CEPOL, because the specificity of the subject required participants to be knowledge-
able, and institutionally representative of their country (or police institution) in a transversal 
European entity. Besides, CEPOL is formally a European agency which supports research on 
policing and is intended to facilitate knowledge sharing. The study covered both official 
and officer careers. All national contact points were invited to answer an online survey or to 
readdress the invitation to the appropriate contact person.

The required institutional guarantees that all responses would be anonymous, and that no 
country or police force would be identified were given. A preview of the sections of the 
survey was also provided in order to allow the informed consent. A name, affiliation, and 
institutional email address were provided to assure the legitimacy of the inquiry.

From these invitations we received 15 answers of which 14 are partially usable (due to miss-
ing data) but only nine are fully usable for police official items and 10 for police officer items, 
thus corresponding to an initial response rate of 54 % that turned into 36 % to 32 % valid 
response rate range, which matches the usual figures (35.7%, sd = 18.8) seen in empirical 
studies targeting organisational representatives (Baruch and Holtom, 2008). This response 
rate fell short from expected possible due to the sensibility of the subject and the fact that 
recruitment and selection processes as well as syllabi training tend to be treated with dis-
cretion to prevent misuse.

Measures
The survey had four sections. The first covered characterisation variables of the police forc-
es  such  as  legal  designation  and  nature,  which  are  not  a  subject  of  further  analysis  due 
to the confidentiality commitment. These data were collected to check source legitimacy 
and prevent double entries. The second section included questions about recruitment and 
selection practices for both official and officer careers. The third had questions about the 
initial training course, also for both careers. The survey finished with two open-ended ques-
tions about selection practices and initial course syllabi trends in the police force. Emotion-
related questions were scattered throughout the four sections.

Selection practices included techniques, dimensions, and instruments and were identified 
by crossing Cochrane et al.’s (2003) and Koper et al.’s (2001) lists of practices, adjusted for Eu-
ropean terminology. The resulting list comprised the following nine selection techniques: 
written  aptitude  testing,  personal  interview,  physical  agility  test,  polygraph  exam,  voice 

125

  
stress  analyser,  psychological  evaluation,  drug  testing,  medical  exam,  and  background 
check.  Respondents  were  requested  to  freely  select  which  among  these  were  in  use  in 
their respective police forces posteriorly coded as a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ variable.

To  theoretically  consolidate  the  selection  dimensions  we  followed  the  competence  ar-
chitectural model (Bartram and Roe, 2005, 2008; Roe, 2002) comprising personality, intelli-
gence, knowledge, skills, and attitudes to which we added motivation as used by Cochrane 
et al. (2003) as well as the instruments that measure these constructs. These instruments 
comprised commonly used tools such as MMPI-2, 16PF, Situational and Clinical interview 
scripts as well as Group dynamics scripts or Rorschach/Inkblot. Respondents were request-
ed to freely select which among these were in use in their respective police forces posteri-
orly coded as a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ variable.

The third section of the questionnaire targeted the extension of emotion-related training 
provided to officers and officials. In order to avoid framing answers, instead of a direct ques-
tion about training in emotions, we opted to ask for training in Psychology, which would 
unavoidably cover emotion-related topics. Beforehand, the respondents were requested to 
answer if there was any course or module in Psychology included in initial police training. 
Whenever positive, they were asked to indicate how many teaching hours and which syl-
labi contents were in use.

The  last  section  comprised  two  open-ended  questions  covering  future  organisational 
trends in recruitment and selection processes and in initial police training.

Data analysis
The data analysis strategy was a twofold procedure that adhered to the exploratory nature 
of the study via a data mining approach (Hand, Manilla and Smith, 2001). We conducted 
a  multiple  correspondence  analysis  (MCA)  in  order  to  identify  topographic  spaces  and 
characteristic associations between the variables, namely the selection practices (Greena-
cre  and  Blazius,  2006).  To  complement  the  MCA  (Lebart,  Morineau  and  Piron,  2006)  we 
conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis to search for patterns, with the aim of identifying 
a possible typology of these selection practices. Due to the nature of data we opted to use 
Ward as a linkage method and Euclidean distances for binary variables (dummy coded for 
1 = yes and 2 = no). Considering the explorative nature of the study as well as the small 
sample size we take 0.60 as a valid threshold for Cronbach’s alpha (Hair et al. 1998, Robinson 
et al. 1991, Schmitt, 1996).

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The  same  procedure  was  applied  with  specific  psychology-related  syllabi  (in  the  cases 
where there is at least one module in Psychology taught) and finally, text transcripts from 
open answered questions concerning future trends in police selection and training in Eu-
rope were content analysed and resulting data treated with a final MCA.

Results

Findings are reported separately for officials and officers. Likewise, selection techniques are 
reported separately from initial training features with the exception of ‘future trends’, where 
they are treated jointly due to the organisational level of the focus.

Selection techniques
Having been requested to report the use of several techniques for descriptive purposes, 
respondents showed that for officials four techniques are always in use: personal interview, 
psychological evaluation, medical exam, and physical agility tests. Other techniques tend 
to be used by the majority (77.8 %) of selection services, namely written aptitude testing 
and background check. About one third of selection services test for drug use and all ser-
vices  reported  not  using  polygraph  and  voice  stress  analyser.  The  MCA  indicates  a  two-
dimensional solution that explains only 27.6 % variance but incorporates two key theoretical 
dimensions in selection policies (Figure 1) and shows good average reliability (Cronbach 
α = 0.71; competencies focused α = 0.77, and clinical focused α = 0.61).

Joining the MCA results with the hierarchical cluster analysis we obtain the following map-
ping (object points labelled by number of identification, for anonymity sake, Figure 2):

Regarding officials (see Table 1), three European countries fall into the first cluster character-
ised by a focus on evaluating personality and motivation, using clinical instruments such as 
the clinical interview, the personal history questionnaire, or Rorschach. The second cluster, 
with two countries, shares the clinical focus but uses MMPI as the favoured instrument for 
clinical personality assessment, under a more comprehensive framework taking into con-
sideration personality, intelligence, and motivation, as well as using a situational interview. 
The third cluster is a single country case showing a full KSA focus counting (also) on group 
dynamics  and  no  clinical  assessment.  The  fourth  cluster  is  composed  of  three  countries 
and  expresses  the  most  comprehensive  competency-focused  approach,  covering  both 
KSA and APOs.

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Table 1 
Official psychological instruments

Clusters (Ward)

Cluster 1
APOs and clini-
cal focus
N = 3

100.0 %

66.7 %

100.0 %

66.7 %

0 %

33.3 %

0 %

Personality

Intelligence

Motivation

Attitude

Specific skills

Knowledge

MMPI-2

Personal History Quest.

66.7 %

Clinical Interview

Rorschach/Inkblot

Group dynamics

Situational interview

100.0 %

33.3 %

0 %

0 %

Figure 1 — Dimensions

Cluster 2
APOs
N = 2

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

50.0 %

0 %

50.0%

100.0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

50.0 %

Cluster 3
Competencies 
focused
N = 1

Cluster 4
Comprehensive 
evaluation
N = 3

Total

0 %

0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

0 %

0 %

0%

0 %

0 %

100.0 %

0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

66.7 %

0 %

66.7 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

88.9 %

77.8 %

100.0 %

77.8 %

44.4 %

44.4 %

22.2 %

44.4 %

33.3 %

11.1 %

11.1 %

11.1 %

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Addressing emotions in police selection and initial training: a European study

All instruments never reported omitted for simplicity sake. These were: 16 PF, California Psy. 
Inventory,  Eysenck  Pers.  Questionnaire,  Inwald  Pers.  Inventory,  Hilson  Safety/Security  Risk 
Inventory, and Mental Status Exam.

As for officers, having been requested to report the use of several techniques for descrip-
tive purposes, respondents showed that all selection services use personal interview. Most 
selection services test for physical agility (90 %), psychological evaluation (80 %), written 
aptitude (60 %), and medical exam (60 %). Half of the services conduct a background check 
of candidates and about 20 % test for drug use. All selection services reported not using 
polygraph or voice stress analyser.

The MCA indicated a two-dimensional solution that explains only 29.5 % but incorporates 
two theoretical dimensions (Figure 3) that have face validity and a good average reliability 
(Cronbach α = 0.76, competencies focused dimension α = 0.79, and cognitive focused di-
mension, α = 0.71).

Figure 2 — Cluster Mapping

129

  
Figure 3 — Dimensions

Figure 4 — Cluster Mapping

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Addressing emotions in police selection and initial training: a European study

Figure 4 shows the cluster mapping. The first cluster is composed of four countries that 
have a more comprehensive coverage of KSAs and APOs. The second cluster is composed 
of five countries in which officer candidates are assessed with a focus on APOs and mo-
tivation  without  any  focus  on  knowledge  assessment,  while  a  minority  of  the  countries 
consider clinical issues. The third cluster is composed of a single country characterised by 
a focus on skills, attitudes, motivation, and using group dynamics (see Table 2).

Table 2 
Officers’ psychological instruments

Clusters (Ward)

Cluster 1
Comprehensive 
evaluation
N = 4

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

75.0 %

100.0 %

0 %

Personality

Intelligence

Motivation

Attitude

Specific skills

Knowledge

MMPI-2

Personal history questionnaire

100.0 %

Clinical interview

Rorschach/Inkblot

Group dynamics

Situational interview

0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

Cluster 2
APO
N = 5

Cluster 3
Competencies 
focused
N = 1

100.0 %

100.0 %

0 %

0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

40.0 %

20.0 %

0 %

40.0 %

40.0 %

40.0 %

20.0 %

0 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

0 %

0 %

0 %

0%

0 %

100.0 %

20.0 %

0 %

Total

90.0 %

90.0 %

100.0 %

70.0 %

50.0 %

40.0 %

20.0 %

60.0 %

20.0 %

10.0 %

10.0 %

10.0 %

Instruments never reported were omitted for simplicity sake and are precisely the same as 
found for officials.

Extent of Psychology training

Crossing officials’ selection clusters with the extent of Psychology in initial courses (see Ta-
ble 3) reveals no discernible pattern of association between clinical focus or competencies 
focus and exposure to psychology subject matter in initial training for officials.

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Table 3 
Extent of Psychology training in officials’ initial course

Cluster 1
APOs and clinical focus
N = 3

Extent of Psychology 
training in officials’ 
initial course

Clusters

Cluster 2
APOs
N = 2

Cluster 3
Competencies 
focused
N = 1

Cluster 4
Comprehensive 
evaluation
N = 3

Yes, a course

66.7 %

100.0 %

100.0 %

Yes, a module

33.3 %

No, nothing

33.3 %

33.3 %

33.3 %

A required complementary analysis for a full comprehension of psychology training in use 
in European police concerns the number of hours in all cases in which at least one module 
in Psychology has been reported (Table 4). Cluster 3 is suppressed, as it is a single case.

Table 4 
Number of hours of officials’ psychology training

Officials’ psychology training contact hours per cluster

Mean (h)

Std. Error

Cluster 1 — APOs and clinical focus

Cluster 2 — APOs

Cluster 4 — Comprehensive evaluation

33.33

116.00

94.50

6.7

92.0

85.5

Individual cases analysis (not shown due to anonymity restriction) indicates that contact 
hours  with  Psychology  varies  considerably,  ranging  from  9  to  208  hours,  with  clusters 
showing variable levels of heterogeneity (Cluster 1 = 33h/se = 6.7 while Cluster 4 = 94.5h/
se  =  85.5).  This  strengthens  the  belief  that  clusters  are  not  sufficiently  homogeneous  to 
suggest any noticeable pattern.

Crossing officer selection clusters with the extent of Psychology in initial training (Table 5) 
shows no discernible pattern of association between cognitive focus or competencies fo-
cus and exposure to psychology subject matter in initial training for officers.

Table 5 
Extent of Psychology training in officers’ initial course

Cluster 1
Comprehensive evaluation
N = 4

Clusters

Cluster 2
APO
N = 5

Extent of Psychology taught in 
officers’ initial course

Yes, a module

Yes, a course

75.0 %

Cluster 3
Competencies 
focused
N = 1

80.0 %

20.0 %

No, nothing

25.0 %

100.0 %

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The complementary analysis applied earlier shows (Table 6) that for officers contact hours 
with Psychology varies considerably, ranging from 6 to 52 hours, with clusters showing vari-
able levels of heterogeneity (Cluster 1 = 13h/se = 5.6 while Cluster 4 = 36.8h/se = 6.4). This 
again strengthens the belief that clusters are not sufficiently homogeneous to suggest any 
sort of pattern.

Table 6 
Number of hours of officers’ psychology training

Officers’ psychology training contact hours per cluster

Mean (h)

Std. error

Cluster 1 — Comprehensive evaluation

Cluster 2 — APO

13.00

36.80

5.6

6.4

Future trends

Counting on respondents’ expertise in recruitment and selection and on official and officer 
training, we asked about future trends and found the following (Tables 7 and 8):

Table 7 
Selection trends

Category

Stated selection trends

Technical-scientific 
foundation

Selection criteria

Regularity of use

General policy

‘We have started to create competency profiles for several positions’

‘Likely to be more emphasis on written communication skills such as statement 
writing’

‘Enhance performances and competencies to select better police officers’

‘A more targeted recruitment’

‘Selections procedures will be used for more cases’

‘More psychological testing for specific areas’

‘Increase the number of women and focus on diversity’

‘The ambition is to attract more women and more people of immigrant back-
ground to apply for a police career’

Process modernisation

‘e-recruitment’

Statement  analysis  indicates  five  categories  that  organise  the  vocabulary  employed  by 
respondents:  technical-scientific  foundation,  selection  criteria,  regularity  of  use,  general 
policy, and process modernisation. Statements suggest that competency profiling is seen 
to be at an early stage regarding technical-scientific foundation. Selection criteria and its 
regularity of use are seen as needed in order to raise the bar regarding both procedures and 

133

  
skills. Likewise, an equal opportunity concern is addressed as a future issue. Lastly, efficiency 
concerns translate into process modernisation.

Table 8 
Training trends

Category

Stated training trends

Training needs as-
sessment

Social focused sub-
jects

‘Check if psychological contents meets daily police work’

‘Social competence’
‘Improvement of “human” formation’
‘Human rights’

Technical subjects

‘Technological skills’

Learning methods

‘Less theory and more practice (pragmatic approach)’
‘Case-based learning methods with progression as a function of time’
‘More written work in the basic training’
‘More integrated cross-subject teaching performed by teams of teachers with 
different professional backgrounds’
‘ “one shot” didactic modules focused on issues’

Evaluation methods

‘A probationary initial training’

Five categories emerged: training needs assessment, social focused subjects, technical sub-
jects,  learning  methods,  and  evaluation  methods.  Statements  suggest  that  respondents 
acknowledge room for improvement due to a mismatch between needs and offer, a still 
suboptimal  focus  on  social  and  technical  issues,  and  especially,  unsuitable  learning  and 
evaluation methods in use.

Overall, the trends (in selection and training) analysed with MCA, show a two-dimensional 
space in which selection trends prevail in discriminating between the axes (Figure 5). Both 
axes  explain  on  average  27  %  variance  with  acceptable  Cronbach’s  alphas  (Routine  use 
α = .73, Policy fulfilment α = .66).

Business sector

Future trends fall upon these dimensions more than on content and criteria. Taking into 
consideration that the broad-range issues such as the routine use of procedures and the 
fulfilment of overall HR policy are the critical ones in estimated future trends (instead of 
selection criteria or training contents) we must conclude that the current situation is still 
one of endeavouring to set the fundamentals for critical HR areas in officials’ and officers’ 
careers.

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Discussion and Conclusions

It is generally accepted that the requirements of police work imply certain personal fea-
tures that translate into greater person-job fit. Desirable candidates for this profession are 
those who are assertive and decisive, yet compassionate and empathic (Roland, Greene, 
Hampton and Wihera, 2014), and represent the community they serve (Sanders, Hughes 
and Langworthy, 1995). Most of these features seem to be linked with emotions at work, 
which according to Thomas (2014) is one of the topics that should be addressed in research, 
adding to many topics traditionally studied such as policing strategies, organisation, and 
evidence-based policing.

Amongst  the  HRM  practices,  those  that  have  received  more  attention  from  researchers 
focused on police matters are training and hiring (Mazeika et al., 2010). These are two of 
the HRM practices in which emotions play a central role, namely in selection process and 
specific psychological training. It is thus worthwhile to conduct research crossing emotions 
and these HRM practices within the context of police workforce.

Findings  from  this  study  should  be  interpreted  while  acknowledging  its  limitations.  Al-
though the geographical origins of respondents cover much of Europe, the small response 
rate prevents any generalisation to all of the European police forces. Likewise, a single or-
ganisational respondent poses a threat regarding biases, and requires further triangulation 
to  check  for  representativeness.  Notwithstanding,  the  subject  under  examination  is  not 
prone to social desirability responses and findings largely converge.

Overcoming these limitations is a challenge per se considering the institutional heteroge-
neity and policies. However, further research on emotions in police work is much needed 
and may bring novelty to research techniques and methods in the field. For example, Slaski 
(2002) defended the heuristic value of an organisational approach to understanding organi-
sational dynamics and promoting opportunities for new techniques and research methods.

A first conclusion concerns the differing axes that structure the official and officer dimen-
sions in selection. Although one can find similar cluster profiles from crossing these axes, it 
is important to keep in mind that the axes themselves are not coincident and that the clus-
ters do not comprise the same countries. It is also worth stressing that no methods of selec-
tion are perfect (Decker and Huckabee, 1999), but one should recommend that the ideal 
instrument would be a test that is specifically built for police selection, rather than a test 
that has been adapted for use in the police environment (Lough and Von Treuer, 2013). It 
is also worth emphasising that a successful recruitment campaign must use a fine-tuned 
mixture of components to ensure strong informational output (Wilson, Wilson, Luthar and 
Bridges, 2013).

135

  
The varying number of training hours in psychology subjects (a 1:23 difference in officials’ 
training and 1:9 in officers’) is adding to the belief that practices taken together do not re-
veal a trend toward a common policy (Winterton, 2009).

All in all, a pattern between selection dimensions and psychology subjects in initial courses 
could indicate a strategic alignment between selection and training regarding psychologi-
cal focus. No such pattern is discernible from findings in this study for either official or of-
ficer careers. We may therefore state that such a phenomenon might be an organisational-
wide product and not simply a professional group feature. If this is true, the source of such 
invariance might reside in institutional culture assumptions or simply that there is not yet 
an explicit strategy to favour such alignment.

As for future trends in police selection and training in all categories found, there is a recur-
ring tacit acknowledgement of a long way to go for improvement in the overall process. 
Also potential differences in Europe should be further understood and systematised.

Considering the literature and this study’s findings, we cannot but repeat Daus and Brown’s 
(2012) call for more research on emotion in police work. With this call it is worth remember-
ing Denkers’ (1986) caveat on the false belief that through selection and training one can 
guarantee  higher  police  workforce  quality.  Structure,  culture,  policy,  and  leadership  play 

Figure 5 — Dimensions

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Addressing emotions in police selection and initial training: a European study

the  major  roles  in  shaping  police  behaviour  and  therefore,  an  organisational  embedded 
research framework must emerge in order to tackle these issues.

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 Crowdsourcing and policing: 
Opportunities for research 
and practice

Antonio Vera
German Police University, Münster,
Germany
Torsten Oliver Salge
RWTH Aachen University,
Germany

Abstract
Crowdsourcing, i.e. digitally enabled processes to solicit contributions from large groups of external 
actors, is considered a promising approach to improve collaboration between citizens and organisations 
in both the private and public sector. In the present paper, we explain what crowdsourcing means and 
how it works. We then review the state of the art in this emerging field of research and examine the 
manifold opportunities, key challenges and main risks of its application in policing contexts.

Keywords:
Crowdsourcing, social media, internet, collaboration, policing

Introduction

Technological progress and accelerating changes in the population structure of modern so-
cieties present major security challenges for public authorities. These can only be mastered 
using complex security networks (Dupont, 2004). In such networks, security actors such as 
the police are closely connected and working with private security actors and citizens. This 
insight is well established in the literature and builds on, among other things, the pioneer-
ing work of Elinor Ostrom. More notably for the purposes of our paper, she investigated 
why the crime rate in a community actually increased, when the police came off the beat 
and into patrol cars (Ostrom and Baugh, 1973). She used the term ‘co-production’ as a way 
of explaining why the police needs the community as much as the community needs the 
police. In essence, public order and security crucially depend on participatory collaboration 
between state-sanctioned actors, such as the police, and actors of the wider public. Popu-
lar examples underlining the importance of collaboration in the field of security include the 

143143

concepts of ‘community policing’, which integrates police and local communities, schools, 
clubs, immigration authorities, etc. to ensure public safety (Tilley, 2008), and ‘police private 
partnerships’, in which the police join forces with private security actors to ensure the safety 
of neighbourhoods, factories, industrial areas, etc. (Youngs, 2004). In summary, public order 
and security are premised on the insight that close collaboration between different security 
actors is essential.

This  puts  the  spotlight  on  innovative  strategies,  methods  or  technologies  that  enhance 
collaboration in the domain of policing. It is in this context that crowdsourcing, i.e. digital 
platforms and processes to solicit contributions from large groups of external actors, seems 
particularly promising as both an approach and a technology to significantly improve col-
laboration between public and private security actors, and to mobilise and re-engage the 
civil society in order to enhance public order and security. Crowdsourcing can leverage the 
potential of new forms of digitally enabled collaboration between police authorities and 
civil society. In what follows, we will briefly review the state of the art of crowdsourcing 
and pay particular attention to the opportunities and main challenges of its application in 
policing contexts.

Crowdsourcing Definition

Crowdsourcing  is  a  multidimensional  concept  encompassing  a  wide  range  of  empirical 
phenomena related to very different tasks and actors, and it has been subject to many mis-
understandings (Hopkins, 2011). Hence, it cannot be satisfactorily defined in a few words. 
The  following  widely  used  definition  of  crowdsourcing  was  given  by  Estellés-Arolas  and 
González-Ladrón-de-Guevara  (2012:  197)  in  a  paper,  which  explicitly  aimed  at  defining 
crowdsourcing:

‘Crowdsourcing is a type of participative online activity in which an individual, an institu-
tion, a non-profit organisation, or company proposes to a group of individuals of varying 
knowledge, heterogeneity, and number, via a flexible open call, the voluntary undertaking 
of a task. The undertaking of the task, of variable complexity and modularity, and in which 
the crowd should participate, bringing their work, money, knowledge and/or experience, 
always entails mutual benefit. The user will receive the satisfaction of a given type of need, 
be  it  economic,  social  recognition,  self-esteem,  or  the  development  of  individual  skills, 
while the crowdsourcer will obtain and utilise to their advantage what the user has brought 
to the venture, whose form will depend on the type of activity undertaken.’

Crowdsourcing consists thus of a voluntary, collaborative relationship between a crowd-
sourcer — usually an organisation or an institution, e.g. the police — and a crowd — a large 
group of people that are considered together — using the internet to provide solutions to 
problems for the mutual benefit of the crowdsourcer and the crowd (Brabham, 2013). At 

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a basic level, community- and contest-based crowdsourcing can be distinguished. Com-
munity-based crowdsourcing  is  a  continuous  collaborative  effort  by  a  broad  group  of  ac-
tors typically united by a common purpose and a shared identity. Prominent examples of 
this  type  of  crowdsourcing  include  the  online  open-content  collaborative  encyclopedia 
Wikipedia and the open-source operating system Linux. In academic circles the distinction 
between community-based crowdsourcing and other, similar forms of online participatory 
work and user-generated content activities has been and still is the subject of much con-
troversy  (Hopkins,  2011).  Contest-based crowdsourcing,  in  contrast,  is  competitive  and  less 
continuous in nature, as members of the crowd compete against each other in an attempt 
to win an often one-shot contest and capture the associated reward, which can be a mon-
etary (e.g. prize money) or non-monetary (e.g. reputation). Market-leading intermediaries 
of such contest-based crowdsourcing comprise NineSigma and InnoCentive. In this paper, 
we focus primarily on contest-based crowdsourcing with many ideas being applicable to 
community-based crowdsourcing as well.

Crowdsourcing Process

Crowdsourcing  usually  unfolds  in  a  sequential  process  (Wexler,  2011),  which  is  illustrated 
in Figure 1. First, the crowdsourcer — in a policing context: the police — becomes aware 
that an internally unsolved often technical problem could potentially be solved by transfer-
ring it to a loosely defined crowd. Then the crowdsourcer broadcasts an ‘open call’ in the 
internet, often supported by a specialised intermediary, inviting the crowd to participate in 
solving the problem and providing a set rules or expectations for the participants. In order 
to motivate the crowd to participate, the crowdsourcer can offer monetary benefits such as 
a cash prize or career-enhancing attention. Such incentives might not be necessary when 
participants are expected to be motivated by altruism and their belief in the cause. Next, 
the  crowdsourcer  collects  and  evaluates  the  input  received  from  the  crowd.  To  identify 
the most valuable solution proposals, the crowdsourcer might again rely on the crowd by 
asking the crowd to assess the solutions submitted, thereby allowing them to learn from 
their peers. The most highly ranked solutions are usually turned over to internal experts and 
decision-makers who select the most valuable solution proposal and decide on whether 
to implement it. Finally, the crowdsourcer has to decide on whether to end or restart the 
crowdsourcing process, in an attempt to find a better solution for the problem or to solve 
another problem.

On the basis of this general process, many different applications of crowdsourcing are feasi-
ble. Crowdsourcing has already been successfully used by numerous companies to attract 
ideas and solutions to technical problems and gauge feedback from customers, ranging 
from new software (Boudreau and Jeppesen, 2015), IT-products (Bayus, 2013) or solutions to 
technical problems (Jeppesen and Lakhani, 2010; Lüttgens et al., 2014), to baby food (Poetz 
and Schreier, 2012) and designs for clothes and car parts (Langner and Seidel, 2015). We also 

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Figure 1 — Model of Contest-Based Crowdsourcing

Crowdsourcer  
(Police) 

Open Call 

Crowd 

1 

Proposals 

2 

Participants 

4 

3 

Solution 

1 

Activating 

2 

Contributing 

3 

Evaluating 

Platform 

4 

Implementing 

know that crowdsourcing has been successfully used in the public sector to facilitate open 
governance and improve transparency, participation and collaboration of citizens in politi-
cal processes (McDermott, 2010). For instance, movements such as ‘Open Data’ (e.g. data.
gov) or ‘Crowdscience’ (e.g. Project Galaxy Zoo) attract large numbers of participants and 
result in unprecedented data inputs and project outcomes (Franzoni and Sauermann, 2014; 
Hilgers and Ihl, 2010).

Interestingly, the contemporary literature on crowdsourcing usually depicts the crowd as 
an inexpensive, original, effective and efficient problem solver, and hence crowdsourcing 
as generally beneficial, in particular for the crowdsourcer, but also for the crowd. This notion 
contrasts with the classical, but somewhat antiquated sociological conception of crowds 
as irrational and threatening phenomena, and therefore as a social problem (Wexler, 2011). 
In  spite  of  the  obvious  and  undeniable  opportunities  of  crowd-based  problem  solving, 
we must, however, not ignore its disruptive power dynamics. Instead we should question 
the postulated win-win framing and account for ‘those who are disintermediated or have 
their labor replaced by the crowd’, that is, for ‘those who bear the costs’ (Wexler, 2011: 14) 
of crowdsourcing.

Crowdsourcing Applications

In an attempt to structure the multitude of existing crowdsourcing applications, Brabham 
(2013) developed a typology that distinguishes the following four problem-based crowd-
sourcing approaches covering the range of problem-solving activities suitable for crowd-
sourcing:

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 — Knowledge discovery and management: The crowdsourcer tasks the crowd with finding 
and collecting information into a common location and format, e.g. reporting condi-
tions and use of public parks and hiking trails.

 — Distributed human intelligence tasking: The crowdsourcer tasks the crowd with analysing 
large amounts of information, e.g. language translation for documents and websites or 
mapping of stars.

 — Broadcast search: The crowdsourcer tasks the crowd with solving technical problems, 

e.g. finding better algorithms for timing traffic signals.

 — Peer-vetted creative production: The crowdsourcer tasks the crowd with creating and se-
lecting creative ideas, e.g. developing designs for public structures or art projects.

The four categories illustrate the different crowdsourcing mechanisms and goals, but are 
still  quite  abstract.  A  more  pragmatic  typology  is  presented  by  Hossain  and  Kauranen 
(2015). Based on an extensive literature review, they distinguish the following seven general 
crowdsourcing applications:

 — Idea generation: Crowdsourcer calls crowd to submit new ideas, to generate ideas col-

lectively, and to select the best ideas.

 — Public participation:  Political  or  public  decision-makers  use  an  online  platform  to  en-
gage a wide range of citizens in public planning projects, to harness their knowledge 
and to facilitate an open dialogue between citizens and policymakers.

 — Microtasking:  Crowdsourcer  calls  crowd  to  complete  small,  labour-intensive  tasks  for 

monetary or non-monetary rewards, e.g. Amazon’s Mechanical Turk.

 — Open source software: Crowd collectively develops computer software, e.g. Mozilla Fire-
fox or OpenOffice the source code of which is public and that can be used free of cost.

 — Citizen science: A form of collaborative research in which the participation of the crowd 
is used to solve real-world problems, e.g. by voluntarily collecting and processing data 
for scientific enquiry.

 — Citizen journalism: Journalistic websites, such as e.g. Newsvine, calls crowd to submit, 

rate, recommend and comment on news stories and articles.

 — Wikies: Websites, which allow anyone to contribute to their contents, thereby facilitat-

ing online work in collaborative environments, e.g. Wikipedia.

In practice, however, most crowdsourcing initiatives involve several of the abovementioned 
applications and cannot be assigned unambiguously to one area. In the following, we will 
examine which of these crowdsourcing applications could be useful in policing contexts.

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Crowdsourcing in Policing Contexts

In the context of policing, crowdsourcing is still in its infancy. However, given the increased 
diffusion and interdependence of digital technologies like social media, internet, GPS, smart 
phones, cameras, and sensors, crowdsourcing offers completely new opportunities for se-
curity actors to cooperate with each other and with the wider public. Such new forms of 
collaboration between citizens, police, local authorities, and private security service provid-
ers hold considerable promise to improve public safety and order, in particular because it 
is a resource-efficient, bottom-up approach which builds on technical devices (e.g. smart 
phones)  and  corresponding  behaviours  (e.g.  photography,  social  networking)  that  are 
widely used by citizens, regardless of their socioeconomic, cultural and ethnic background.

Based on Hossain and Kauranen’s (2015) abovementioned typology, the most obvious ap-
plications  of  crowdsourcing  in  policing  contexts  correspond  primarily  to  the  areas  ‘pub-
lic participation’ and ‘idea generation’. Accordingly, crowdsourcing technologies could be 
used, for example, in crime prevention programs, whose success critically depends on ef-
fective collaboration between the police, other public agencies and the broader civil socie-
ty. Ideation contests, for instance, could be a promising avenue to generate and select new 
crime prevention strategies and tools, and to exploit the creativity and knowledge of key 
stakeholders from e.g. social services, schools, job creation, housing, law enforcement, and, 
of course, citizens. Other crowdsourcing applications combining ‘public participation’ with 
‘idea generation’ could be aimed at engaging a wide range of citizens in security-related 
legislative  processes  such  as,  for  example,  the  ‘Policing  Act  Wiki’  in  New  Zealand,  which 
empowered citizens to engage in an open dialogue with the parliamentarians responsible 
for drafting a new police law by presenting the ‘old’ police law in wiki format (Hilgers and 
Ihl, 2010). This new format allowed the public to incorporate their demands and proposals 
by modifying, rewriting and complementing the ‘old’ police law, thereby helping lawmak-
ers to improve the quality and efficiency of their regulatory practice. The wiki-version of the 
new police law was officially approved by the New Zealand parliament in 2008.

Further potential applications of crowdsourcing in a policing context are related to techni-
cal problem solving and security analytics. Problem solving contests could contribute to 
solve key internal technological challenges public authorities and police forces are faced 
with, for example, automated video tagging, face recognition or predictive policing algo-
rithms (Greengard, 2012). Data mining, that is, the automated categorisation and grouping 
of data and identification of associations and remarkable patterns, could enable the col-
lection, preparation, analysis and interpretation of large-scale security related datasets (e.g. 
photos, CCTV data, crime statistics, socioeconomic statistics, security barometers) in a man-
ner that is conducive to the development of innovative analytical tools to support public 
authorities in ensuring public order and security.

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The most promising applications of crowdsourcing in policing, however, include the abil-
ity to involve large numbers of citizens more directly in criminal investigations and other 
public order preserving activities, such as searches for missing persons or manhunts. His-
torical examples of such forms of crowdsourcing were, for instance, ‘Wanted dead or alive’ 
campaigns in the Wild West, or, more recently, reality crime TV shows like ‘Crimewatch UK’, 
‘America’s Most Wanted’, or Germany’s ‘Aktenzeichen XY … ungelöst’. The success of these 
paper- or TV-based crowdsourcing formats, despite their obvious limitations, provides fur-
ther indication of the potential of crowdsourcing in the digital world of the 21st century, 
when online manhunts using police webpages and in particular social media sites, such as 
Facebook and Twitter, can reach hundreds of thousands or even millions of citizens in a few 
hours. Such interactions, however, do not fully exploit the strengths of crowdsourcing, as 
social media are merely used to supplement current channels of communication such as 
public service announcements, and serve mainly as a means of collecting and disseminat-
ing information rather than engaging in public discourse (Nhan et al., 2017).

Online collaboration between the police and citizens becomes particularly effective when 
public participation is combined with microtasking, that is, when police tasks are distrib-
uted over the internet to a large group of people, thereby enabling the police to collect 
large quantities of crime-relevant data and to use a large number of decentralised actors to 
help analyse these data without tying up police resources. Typical examples of this form of 
crowdsourcing is public monitoring of CCTV systems over the internet, which has signifi-
cantly improved the surveillance capabilities in the United Kingdom (Schafer, 2013; Trottier 
2014a, 2014b), and the posting of photos of persons alleged to have participated in the 2011 
Stanley Cup riots in Vancouver by the police through a Facebook page, where visitors were 
invited to report anyone they recognised (Schneider and Trottier, 2011).

A  case  in  point  is  the  terror  attack  on  the  Boston  Marathon  in  2013  killing  three  people 
and injuring more than 170 (Rash, 2013). Here, in addition to the usual calls for information 
that might contribute to identifying possible suspects, the police asked citizens to submit 
photos and videos from the attack and the crime scene, which triggered large volumes of 
data streaming in that had to be analysed by police officers to find clues as to the identities 
of the attackers. However, these official police investigations were accompanied by parallel 
investigations conducted by online communities who pooled information and resources 
in order to assist the police in the analysis of the vast amount of data. At the same time, 
websites  like  Reddit  (‘the  frontpage  of  the  internet’)  also  posted  photos  and  video  clips 
circulating through the news and social media and invited their members to analyse the 
visual data for clues, e.g. annotating persons with large backpacks who seemed suspicious. 
Finally, the official police investigations led first to the identification and location of two 
suspects, and 4 days later to one suspect killed and the other captured. In contrast, the un-
official investigations performed by the ‘cyber-vigilantes’ only resulted in false accusations, 
thereby illustrating the risks of crowdsourcing activities in the context of policing (Brabham, 
2013; Nhan et al., 2017).

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The limits and risks of crowdsourcing in policing contexts arise from the fact that the dis-
tributed actors in the crowd lack professional training, and that their efforts and activities 
are  often  redundant  or  subject  to  error.  In  spite  of  being  well  intentioned,  crowdsourc-
ing activities using internet technologies can give way to rampant speculation and further 
discriminatory practices. Innocent actions can be mislabelled as suspicious activities and, 
even more worrisome, innocent individuals can be misidentified as legitimate suspects. In 
combination with potentially dangerous forms of cyber-vigilantism such as doxing, which 
exploit the victims’ privacy in an incontrollable manner with no chance for self-defence, 
crowdsourcing in the context of policing therefore can have potentially disastrous effects 
(Nhan et al., 2017; Schafer, 2013).

Nevertheless, the speed and scale of the unofficial investigations and the huge amount 
of  relevant  real-time  information,  photographs  and  videos  collected  in  the  aftermath  of 
the Boston Marathon terrorist attack also demonstrated the opportunities of crowdsourc-
ing for generating useful hints and involving communities in investigational and other law 
enforcement activities. Hence, bringing together the activities of the police and citizens in 
an official crowdsourcing platform, preferably owned by the police, which serves as a place 
for citizens to upload their photos and videos as well as to analyse them looking for use-
ful clues, is paramount. Under such conditions, the police should be able to control or at 
least direct the data analysis activities by charging the participating public with appropri-
ate duties (e.g. ‘tag all male persons with  blue  backpacks’),  eliminating  bogus  leads and 
misidentifications of individuals as suspects, dispelling rumors, etc. and allowing the law 
enforcement authorities to exploit the advantages of crowdsourcing while minimising its 
potential for harm.

Crowdsourcing Challenges

The previous chapter has not only illustrated the considerable potential of crowdsourcing 
in a policing context, but also its limited diffusion to date. It is against this backdrop that 
police  practitioners  and  policing  scholars  alike  might  wish  to  dedicate  greater  attention 
and resources to the following three main crowdsourcing challenges, which can be broadly 
subsumed under the headings ‘human behaviour’, ‘organisation’, and ‘technology’ (see Fig-
ure 2).

 — Human behaviour: Mainly due to psychological reasons, there can be substantial resist-
ance to the introduction of crowdsourcing. Such behaviour is particularly prevalent if 
either individuals or organisations strongly resist change. This can be manifested in re-
actions like the Not-Invented-Here syndrome, which is the attitude-induced rejection 
of inputs from an external source (Antons and Piller, 2015). There is some evidence that 
such behavioural traits can be found in police organisations (Crank, 1997).

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Figure 2 — Crowdsourcing Challenges

Partnerships 

Behaviors 

Structures 

Attitudes 

Strategies 

Qualiﬁcations 

Processes 

Compe- 
tencies 

Data  
Protection 

Data Flows 

Data  
Analysis 

Technical Challenges 

Operating  
Models 

 — Organisation:  Crowdsourcing  may  require  new  intra-  and  inter-organisational  strate-
gies, structures and processes, which in turn may present barriers to the introduction of 
crowdsourcing in policing contexts. For example, crowdsourcing may necessitate new 
job responsibilities or workflows. We know from the organisational literature, however, 
that organisations often respond reluctantly to such changes (Hannan and Freeman, 
1977). While organisational benefits from crowdsourcing may be tangible, crowdsourc-
ing might require organisational upfront investment that can be difficult to attract.

 — Technology: Crowdsourcing may present a variety of technological challenges. This in-
cludes unprecedented quantities of data, data flows, data analysis, data security and 
privacy concerns (Piezunka and Dahlander, 2015). On the one hand, social media like 
Twitter and Facebook offer notable opportunities for police and other security actors 
to, for example, identify suspects or receive crime warnings. On the other hand, crowd-
sourcing might result in information overflow and increased stress for police and other 
security staff.

In order to successfully meet these challenges, police organisations will have to develop 
new  crowdsourcing  competencies,  create  new  crowdsourcing  partnerships,  and  design 
new crowdsourcing platforms. Again, we will briefly review each in turn.

 — Crowdsourcing competencies: Crowdsourcing requires new competencies from security 
actors to be effective. Of particular importance for crowdsourcing are competencies 

151

  
related to the identification, integration and utilisation of new knowledge (West and 
Bogers,  2014).  At  the  beginning  of  a  crowdsourcing  process,  actors  must  be  able  to 
identify and frame a problem (Afuah and Tucci, 2012). They also have to specify the 
target audience for the selected crowdsourcing model (Lüttgens et al., 2014) and de-
velop specific incentives for this target audience to encourage their participation (Frey 
et al., 2011). Once participants have submitted inputs, these inputs need to be analysed 
(Dahlander and Piezunka, 2014). Furthermore, inputs from social and other media re-
quire particular competencies from security actors and administrators of crowdsourc-
ing communities. This may require new staff and further education.

 — Crowdsourcing partnerships: Research on collaborative innovation clearly shows the ad-
vantages of a diverse partner network (Salge et al., 2013). For example, for the develop-
ment of products and services, customers, suppliers, competitors, and universities play 
important roles. As mentioned above, collaboration and partnerships already play an 
important role for some police and security staff, but still remain to be fully leveraged. 
Collaboration with specific partners may be intensified based on the nature of the se-
curity problem at hand. Citizens may be able to support the police in the identification 
of suspects, while app-developers may support police work with specific algorithms. 
The challenge for any organisation using crowdsourcing remains to identify the appro-
priate mix of partners to increase security in its specific security context.

 — Crowdsourcing  platforms:  Crowdsourcing  platforms  need  to  be  designed  such  that 
partners have the appropriate incentives to contribute (Frey et al., 2011). This not only 
includes extrinsic incentives such as monetary incentives (e.g. prize money), but also 
intrinsic  incentives  such  as  recognition,  reputation,  fun,  or  intellectual  challenges  to 
solve problems (Füller, 2006). Research shows that contest-based crowdsourcing com-
petitions  are  primarily  fueled  by  monetary  incentives,  whereas  community-based 
crowdsourcing  tends  to  be  more  reliant  on  participants’  intrinsic  motivation  (Afuah 
and Tucci, 2012). In the context of security, this underlines the importance of identifying 
and designing the right incentives for citizens and other security actors to participate 
in crowdsourcing activities and to keep them engaged over time (Schaefer et al., 2017).

The complexity of the abovementioned challenges and opportunities of crowdsourcing in 
the context of policing calls for rigorous academic research as well as practical experience. 
Indeed, the considerable challenges can only be overcome successfully, if police practition-
ers and policing scholars join forces. In doing so, they should not only seek to shed light 
on the upside potential of crowdsourcing technologies as a means to re-think police work 
in the digital age and re-engage civil society for increased public safety and order, but also 
seek to explore the associated organisational, human and technical challenges. We, how-
ever, are confident that crowdsourcing might contribute to a new and mutually beneficial 
mode of collaboration between citizens, the police, and other players in the field of security.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Planning and policing 
of public demonstrations: 
A case study

Luis Manuel André Elias
Sérgio Felgueiras
Lúcia G. Pais
Instituto Superior de Ciências Policiais e Segurança Interna, Lisbon,
Portugal

Abstract
One of the biggest political events that took place in Portugal since the Carnation Revolution in April 
1974 occurred on 15 September 2012. It was a time when the consequences of the financial crisis hit 
the majority of the citizens, and the government announced a tax modification, along with several 
austerity measures. Accordingly, a group of citizens launched a national protest on the internet called 
‘To hell with the Troika! We want our lives!’. A few days later, around 23 000 people had said ‘I’ll go’ 
on  the  Facebook  page.  Given  these  kinds  of  groups,  the  police  had  some  difficulty  to  find  credible 
representatives  to  speak  with  to  adequately  plan  and  execute  the  policing  operation.  This  event, 
promoted by organisations outside the traditional political system, has constituted a challenge for the 
police regarding the constitutional rights of assembly, demonstration, and security and public peace 
maintenance. This demonstration constitutes the case study to be presented. The main goals are: to 
describe the police planning and implementation procedures; to analyse the dos and don’ts; and to 
get some lessons to be learned. Using a qualitative approach, police documents, and interviews with 
police officers and commanders involved in the policing operation were analysed through a content 
analysis  procedure.  Triangulation  of  data  sources  and  timeline  was  made.  Results  are  presented 
in  a  timeline,  enabling  the  assessment  of  the  whole  operation,  mainly  the  management  of  the 
information flows and the uncertainty of the goings-on on the field.

Keywords
Mass protest policing, decision-making, security, planning, training

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Introduction

In 2012, Portugal was under a deep economic and financial crisis, and as a result, an external 
financial intervention was given by the European Commission, the European Central Bank, 
and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), or the Troika, as the Portuguese people have 
named it. The demonstration on 15 September 2012 is a milestone in the recent history of 
Portuguese political protest. Considering the demonstrators’ participation, it was the major 
political protest since the Carnation Revolution held in 1974. This protest occurred in the 
main Portuguese cities as a reaction to the announced reforms of the Single Social Tax.

On 7 September 2012, the Prime Minister announced changes in the form of calculating 
the Single Social Tax, reducing the contribution of the business sector and as a compensa-
tory measure increasing the contribution of the labour force (see figure 1). This generated 
a strong reaction in society and led to the rupture within the governmental coalition.

Figure 1 — Government proposal to change ISSC scheme in 2012

The public perception of the contradiction between the government and the population, 
as well as the internal divergence within the governmental majority, was a key factor for the 
success of the mobilisation process.

The  cultural  frame  made  by  the  movement  ‘To  hell  with  the  Troika!  We  want  our  lives!’ 
presented the Troika and the austerity policy as public enemies. The accomplishment of 
this mobilisation was essentially due to the social resonance of precariousness and austerity 
because many Portuguese families were clearly facing its effects. Social media gave a new 
empowerment to a novel generation of activists formed by unemployed and by precarious 
workers with higher education profile, which means they have the know-how to mobilise 
and organise a protest, replacing political parties or unions. This new kind of mobilisation 

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had obvious consequences for the policing operation planning, as there were no credible 
representatives to speak with.

In brief, this is what happens in Portuguese major events’ security: As always, police focus 
the  attention  on  the  security  of  the  events  and  the  town.  According  to  an  interviewed 
police officer, it is important ‘… to achieve the objectives of the organisers — the right to dem-
onstrate — but at the same time to balance these objectives with other activities in the city, and 
citizens’ rights’ (Interview 1).

Police had to adapt to the challenges of a globalised world, where technology and new 
forms of protest have a strong impact in public order strategies and tactics. Police inter-
vention,  indeed,  influence  protesters’  perceptions  of  the  state  reaction  (della  Porta  and 
Reiter, 1995). Nowadays, protest policing appears to be a key issue for the professional self-
definition of the police. Police planning has to be flexible and adaptable to unpredictable 
and uncertain events. One interviewed police officer mentioned that he ‘…realized that for 
events of this nature, where human behaviour is determinant, unpredictability and uncertainty is 
huge. And so adaptability to circumstances is an added value’ (Interview 1).

The different phases of a security operation (see figure 2) within a large-scale demonstration 
are: information research and processing; planning; execution; and evaluation/debriefing.

Figure 2 — Phases of a security operation

The communication made by the organisers to the municipality is mandatory. Open sources 
are constantly analysed for gathering intelligence. The planning is based on meetings be-
tween the police and relevant partners. During these preparatory meetings, police support 
is requested by the organisers because of their lack of experience in organising demonstra-
tions, which can also be considered as an indicator of trust and confidence in the police. To 
be successful, the exchange of information between the different police branches is crucial 
to establish the concept of operations and the different modalities of action.

Before the event, the police Commander delivers a briefing to all involved units.

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During the event, information about public disorder is immediately transmitted to the com-
mander to make decisions. But often, the ‘less is more’ rule applies, that is to say, that less 
information can lead to more effective decisions.

At the debriefing stage, a meeting is held with all police units and if needed with external 
entities for critical evaluation of the whole process, thus contributing to the adjustment of 
failures and/or systematisation of good practices.

To sum up, at first the police were supposed to deal with uncertainty. They could envis-
age the whole situation based on the Portuguese protest history, and respective policing 
operation, but they had no access to some information they usually have to prepare these 
kinds of events. The use of new models of mobilisation and advantage taking of perceived 
political opportunities by a new profile of demonstrators, gave a completely novel picture 
to the police, having increased uncertainty and transformed all operation. This leaderless 
protest implied the police had no trustful interlocutors to foresee the big picture. They had 
no view of what might happen during the event, and this is of great significance for those 
who have to design the security plan.

This was a peaceful demonstration, despite the enormous amount of participants, it seemed 
it would be the most suitable event to study the planning and policing procedures. In fact, 
evaluation was not at stake, thus eliminating a possible biased data collection and analysis. 
Also, because some time has passed — but not so much that the police interviewees could 
have  forgotten  their  experience.  Last  but  not  least,  because  some  reserved  information 
became available to analysis.

This  case  study  intends  to  describe  the  whole  policing  operation  of  one  of  the  biggest 
Portuguese political events. The design, planning and implementation procedures will be 
addressed, as well as the information management and the decision making process.

Method

Participants
Six male police officers (three Commanders) involved in the police operation, in the areas 
of operations and intelligence.

Corpus
A set of police documents was gathered to be analysed:

1)  Two Intelligence Reports;

2)  A Traffic Control Operation Order;

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3)  An email sent to all the police force the day before the event;

4)  A First Impression Report, made on the very day of the event; and

5)  The final Police Report.

Also, data collected by interviewing the police officers, using a guide previously designed 
for the research purposes, was considered for analysis.

Instruments
Interviews and content analysis.

Procedure
A guide for the interview was designed taking into account the specific purposes of this 
study. It involves two parts: one regarding the policing of major political events in general; 
the other considering the event of 15 September 2012. The interviews were conducted in 
a semi-structured and semi-directive way. The police officers appointed to participate in 
the study were chosen because of their active role in the policing operation. After being 
invited,  they  have  accepted  to  participate  in  the  study  and  gave  their  written  informed 
consent. The interviews were voice-recorded and then transcribed verbatim.

The police documents and the interviews were submitted to a thematic content analysis 
procedure (e.g. Ghiglione and Matalon, 2001). Data was analysed and codified in categories 
which were designed for the study, and derived from the collected data. The analytic pro-
cedure was open or exploratory. To warrant the analysis quality, triangulation of analysts 
was made, and other reliability and validity criteria were followed.

Also, a paper about the media perception concerning police activity during political pro-
tests in Portugal (Pais, Felgueiras, Rodrigues, Santos and Varela, 2015) was taken into con-
sideration. It addresses the communicational climate during 2012 by analysing the media 
coverage of major political events policing, namely, the news from the Portuguese News 
Agency, three major daily newspapers, and three major TV channels.

Results

The results are presented in a timeline, enabling the assessment of the whole policing op-
eration,  mainly  the  information  management  and  the  uncertainty  of  the  developments 
that took place.

The demonstration: Social and political context
In 2011 the financial crisis was ruling the majority of the citizens’ daily routines, and framing 
the actions of social and political actors. By then, a political protest named ‘Geração à rasca’ 
(precarious generation), motivated by a cultural frame of precariousness at many levels, set 

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up a new Portuguese protest dynamics (Felgueiras, 2016b). Lisbon became the epicentre of 
social discontent and political critique.

On  11  September  2012,  at  11H00,  there  were  22  297  supporters  on  the  Facebook  page, 
which is an abnormal figure in the Portuguese major political events’ history, suggesting 
the demonstration would have a massive participation. Several public figures stated their 
support to the initiative. Castells (2009) talk about the ‘autonomy of the communicating 
subjects’ and stress that ‘the construction of communicative autonomy is directly related 
to the development of social and political autonomy, a key factor in fostering social change’ 
(p. 414).

Media started an intensive coverage of the arrangements for this demonstration, closely 
following  the  mobilisation  process,  while  the  communicational  climate  during  2012, 
especially  considering  the  Portuguese  TV  channels  with  major  audiences,  was  one  of 
emphasising  the  police  action  during  political  demonstrations,  mainly  its  results  and 
consequences  in  terms  of  arrests  and  injured  people,  with  the  exhibition  of  images  of 
violent demonstrators being dispersed by force, or detained (Pais et al., 2015). As Castells 
(2009: 302) put it, ‘in the network society, the battle of images and frames, at the source of 
the battle for minds and souls, takes place in multimedia communication networks’.

All these factors combined with the viral effect of information disseminated through social 
networks led to a mobilisation that was estimated to be over 600 000 demonstrators, mak-
ing this event the most attended in Portugal since 1 May 1974.

In fact, only 8 days after the Government’s announcement, on 15 September, the demon-
stration  took  place  in  Lisbon.  Some  other  protests  occurred  in  40  Portuguese  cities  and 
Berlin, Barcelona, Brussels, Paris, London, Madrid, and Fortaleza (Brazil). Even today some 
internet sites still give information about around a million people who have walked out 
into  the  streets.  Furthermore,  the  event  (in  Lisbon)  was  supposed  to  end  in  a  symbolic 
place — Praça de Espanha (Spain Square) — stressing the solidarity with the Spaniards and 
the political situation they were facing.

Planning and implementing the security operation: Before the event
The information research and processing began as soon as the news of the demonstration 
was out. An analysis of open sources regarding everything related to the events was carried 
out by the police, resulting in the Intelligence Reports to feed the police deployment with 
information (19).

Although  several  demonstrations  were  to  happen  in  different  Portuguese  cities,  it  was 
known the demonstrators would come from various parts of Portugal in rented buses to 

(19) In 2012 Lisbon Police produced and disseminated a detailed Intelligence Report every 2 days and a half 

about public demonstrations and radical movements (source: Police of Lisbon).

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the  big  demonstration  in  Lisbon.  Information  was  available  in  diverse  Facebook  pages, 
managed by different promoters, with several messages regarding: the time of assembly; 
the promoters’ intentions; the identification of hotspots; and the adherents’ intentions re-
garding actions to be taken during the events. All this information allowed approaching 
the degree of acceptance of the cause of the demonstration. Also, the use of ironic or pro-
vocative language (sometimes subliminal) made the police be on the watch regarding any 
violent or disruptive action:

bring banners, snacks, torches (non-human yet), instruments (musical ones), cocktails (those to 
drink),  cookies,  (cinnamon)  sticks,  water  (Portuguese  Stone  Water  or  others),  and  mainly  dirty 
faces [in Portuguese, it is written as más caras, and these two words combined mean máscaras, 
or masks]. (Retrieved from the Intelligence Reports)

Such diverse information coming from so many groups and individuals should have implied 
a strong coordination between the police and the promoters. Holding meetings between 
the  police  and  these  organisations,  intending  to  exchange  useful  information,  is  normal 
police  procedure.  However,  information  about  the  events  was  scarce  and  unreliable.  All 
this had consequences for the police deployment. Also, it allowed for the identification of 
hotspots along the route.

The Intelligence Reports recommended to pay attention to: individuals and/or groups with 
a  radical  agenda;  behaviours;  mediatisation;  direct  action;  cyber-attacks;  actions  against 
government members. Attention was also given to the news of demonstrations in Spain, 
regarding civil unrest and occupation of symbolic spaces. The majority of demonstrators 
were centre-left and moderate-right, but people from the most diverse ideologies came 
to  demonstrate  against  the  government-proposed  measures.  The  police  contained  the 
extreme-right protesters and assured they also demonstrate.

As  time  was  passing,  there  was  an  increasing  feeling  that  the  demonstration  would  be 
considerable.

The media, the day before the event, talked about 40 to 50 000 people, which has also fallen 
short of reality. (Interview 6)

The  Intelligence  Report  disseminated  the  day  before  the  demonstration  mentioned  the 
number of participants was estimated to be above 30 000.

For the planning, it was important the cooperation with relevant external entities to solve 
specific problems (medical emergency, civil protection, urban cleaning, and public trans-
portation). The exchange of information between different police branches was crucial to 
establish the concept of operations and the modalities of action.

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The Police stated to the press that its resources ‘would be used gradually and according 
to the degree of conflict and people’s movements, always having in mind the threat levels 
and the permanent risk assessment’ (retrieved from a note to the Portuguese News Agency 
by the Portuguese Police).

A briefing was carried out with all the police units involved in the operation. A dedicated 
communications channel was also set up to facilitate the operations. However, according 
to one of the interviewed police officers, ‘… a control room would be of utmost importance, 
because even in terms of communications, (...) having a space where the information is received, 
where the decision-makers are, having the conditions to think and to be properly briefed, and to 
make decisions, (…) to think about what are the human resources and about other options to 
solve different public order incidents. What are the implications of adopting solution A, B or C, (...) 
I believe that this is what is missing’ (Interview 1).

Police strategy for the 15 September demonstrations was based on the premise ‘high vis-
ibility and low-profile policing’ (e.g. Adang and Cuvelier, 2001).

Planning and implementing the security operation: During the event
The demonstration under the motto ‘To hell with the Troika! We want our lives!’, starting at 
15H00 and ending at 19H10, was a challenge for the police: there is always a sensitive bal-
ance between freedom and security.

Before the demonstration there was a feeling of ambiguity. On the day of the demonstra-
tion, it changed into a feeling of surprise, due to a large number of people present in the 
demonstration. TV was on live broadcast, and this may well have been a supplementary 
motivation for people to join the event, showing their solidarity with the cause. We live in 
‘a volatile and liquid society’ (Bauman, 2007, p. 12) and protest is influenced by globalisation 
and social media.

When  moving  from  planning  to  action,  and  considering  the  initial  expectations,  police 
commanders became stunned by the huge crowd, and this urged them to reconfigure the 
security problem. Accordingly, instead of worrying about critical points, violent situations, 
and incidents between groups, the police had to manage the simple allocation of people 
on the ground. Where do we put such a huge amount of people? How can we manage 
their rally in a safe and secure manner?

‘When the head of the demonstration arrived at Praça Duque de Saldanha, the police officer 
ahead told me “it’s impossible to gather them all in a traffic lane”. And it was. It seemed they 
were coming from a barrel and they arrived at the muzzle and occupied all the lanes. And we 
became dry. For a moment we had no capacity to move’ (Interview 6).

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This demonstration was carried out without major incidents, with the greatest tension be-
ing  felt  in  front  of  the  IMF’s  office,  with  the  bursting  of  firecrackers,  tomatoes  and  glass 
bottles thrown at the police. Police had to segregate and control a group of extreme-right 
demonstrators to avoid confrontations with left-wing and anarchist groups.

At the end of the demonstration, about 3 000 people began a march towards the Parlia-
ment, remaining there until 2 a.m. Police means had to be deployed nearby. Some anar-
chists caused disorder in several commercial areas and stoned and launched pyrotechnics 
against the police, which led to some arrests. This was a ritualised and symbolic violence 
that should not be faced by a robust police reaction because these groups were amongst 
many other citizens who were peacefully demonstrating.

According  to  one  of  the  interviewed  police  officers,  ‘…  it  came  to  a  point  that  it  already 
seemed a ritual, which both demonstrators and police officers knew very well. Because the pro-
testers, the radical groups were the same: the slogans, the throwing of railing ... (…) Demonstra-
tors expected the police to behave in a certain way and they themselves also played their role’ 
(Interview 1).

This day ended thus with an unauthorised demonstration in front of the Parliament, com-
posed of several groups, associated with anarcho-libertarian movements and with several 
social movements, which previously integrated the demonstration. Despite the attempts 
of a minority of radicals, the low profile police strategy was widely praised by the media.

Planning and implementing the security operation: After the event
Usually, a debriefing occurs after a police operation like this. As an interviewed said: ‘… it is 
important to make a debriefing, but one that in fact … which has actionable conclusions, that 
can be implemented’ (Interview 1).

Discussion

Planning and operational implementation have had to adjust to the increase of traditional 
protest but also of new forms of protest in recent years, many with tens of thousands of 
participants, often summoned through new technologies, supporting diverse causes and 
interests.

In this particular case, the huge amount of adherents to the demonstration turned out to 
be an element of surprise of utmost importance. Reality imposed itself and transformed 
the  early  sense  of  ambiguity  and  uncertainty  that  underlined  the  initial  planning  phase. 
Another  security  problem  emerged  due  to  the  reconfiguration  of  the  real  scenario.  The 
major issue was then the demonstrators’ density, or the dangerous crowd density (Felguei-
ras, 2016a).

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Police adopted flexible and adaptive responses according to the environment — ‘chame-
leon’ style and tone of policing — which is linked to the ecological rationality (Gigerenzer 
and Todd, 1999; Simon, 1956, 1990). For decisions to be flexible and adaptive — ecologically 
valid — the particular structure of information in the environment in which they are made 
must be considered. Thus, they are local and consider the change. They change whenever 
a new variable joins the set, whenever there is a change in the environment (Gigerenzer 
and Todd, 1999; Simon, 1956, 1990; Todd, 2001; Todd and Gigerenzer, 2000). So, in spite of 
the limitations of the human mind, people (decision-makers) develop an adaptive behav-
iour (being successful in their decisions) by exploring the information structure of natural 
decision environments (Gigerenzer and Selten, 2001). The interviews expressed this: ‘… in 
planning, the decision is never final. (…) It is on the ground that decisions are made, depending 
on who is commanding, (…) and there are different decisions for similar situations’ (Interview 1).

On the existing protocols of action, one of the interviewed police officers mentioned that 
‘… perhaps at the level of decision-making and decision communication, methodology could 
be improved. But the principle that (...) there is certain openness and decisions are being made as 
things happen, (...) adapting to what is happening, I think that it happened, and it is a good pro-
tocol (…) I believe it is difficult to protocol scenarios, (…) in this type of political demonstrations. 
(…) if we did that, they would be protocols that would essentially push off individual account-
ability, because they would simply be actioned’ (Interview 1).

According to our research, there is a mix of logic and intuition (feeling), there is a mix of 
information and experience: ‘… there are no decisions either totally right or totally wrong (...). 
Sometimes  the  secret  is  more  about  knowing  how  to  justify  at  the  end  why  the  decision  was 
made, to have a good reason to have made the decision, even if the decision was not the best 
than to make a good decision that runs evil and then we cannot justify why we took it’ (Inter-
view 1).

Prudent decision-making is a characteristic of adults, being the experience the key element 
to consider (Oliveira and Pais, 2010). Instead of resorting to slower and more costly analytical 
procedures, the experience of the learning process allows us to use simplified (often vague 
and  imprecise)  information  representations  that  have  been  entered  into  a  ‘knowledge 
store’ where there are positive or negative indicators (Rivers, Reyna and Mills, 2008) associ-
ated with mental images. It is, therefore, an affective repository of images (Slovic, Finucane, 
Peters and MacGregor, 2002, 2005) that is formed throughout our life through the experi-
ences of individuals in certain situations or when they are confronted with certain stimuli 
(Oliveira  and  Pais,  2010).  We  have,  then,  ‘a  more  “intuitive”  processing,  made  of  essential 
summary representations, and more fluid’ (Oliveira and Pais, 2010, p. 454), based on experi-
ence, feelings and accumulated knowledge, that several times, or many times allows for 
more effective decisions, namely considering the level of expertise of the decision-maker. 
This allows us to respond quickly to situations where the decision-maker is immersed in 
a specific and complex environment, choosing the solution (or response) that seems sat-

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isfactory  enough  —  satisficing  (Simon,  1990).  The  rationality  of  the  decision  is  based  on 
‘the adaptive functionality that the decision-maker rehearses in making the decision based 
on the best/possible representation that the cognitive/affective function offers him/her of 
the physical and psychosocial structure of his environment’ (Oliveira and Pais, 2010, p. 423). 
Thus, we speak of an ecological rationality (Gigerenzer, 2001).

It seems this is precisely what happens on the field. If an adaptive behaviour and adaptive 
decision-making is to achieve, the commander’s experience plays a significant role, and this 
knowledge is shared with the other police officers (new at that specific service, or novices) 
on the terrain. The knowledge ‘… is inside the commander’s head, or a person in charge, or 
a set of officers that were present in that operation...  and the next time: “look, don’t forget the 
other went wrong in this or that, don’t forget to do this or that” ’ (Interview 1).

One may think this might be a good practice for the learning and training process of novice 
police officers, and it is. But it remains possible to do so because of the peaceful charac-
teristic of the majority of the Portuguese political protest. Being the political demonstra-
tions disruptive or violent, this strategy, though necessary, would not suffice to an adequate 
knowledge transfer. The interviewees also talked about this: ‘It would be interesting (...) [to 
have] a platform that systematises some aspects of the operations (...) [because] one thing is look-
ing at an archive like this and see thousands of paper sheets of previous Operation Reports, an-
other thing is that information to be already analysed. (…) it would have to be something organ-
ised by topics, not a mere repository of reports, of scanned reports’ (Interview 1).

Meanwhile, sometimes there is too much information circulating during the security opera-
tion, and if the information is not properly addressed, the inputs are above all misinforma-
tion and noise to the police commander. On the other hand, the management of emotions 
is, sometimes, difficult in these kinds of situations. As mentioned by a police officer, it would 
be positive ‘… to have a place where people could stay, sometimes even a little bit away from all 
that emotion, where they could receive information, discuss it and make decisions’ (Interview 1).

The study of decision-making in a world of uncertainty shows that ‘often, under some cir-
cumstances, a single good argument performs better, not only because it is simpler and 
faster,  but  because  it  is  more  precise  and  predictive  than  a  multiplicity  of  mathematical 
equations’ (Ratinho, 2015, p. 15). The use of cognitive shortcuts allows this. Sometimes the 
decision-maker ignores much of the available information to focus on a single good reason 
to make the decision — one-reason decision-making (Gigerenzer and Todd, 1999) — which 
allows him to avoid the lengthy process of analysing various clues of information, being 
able to be highly effective in its decision. According to our research one of the police of-
ficers stressed that ‘… normally under these circumstances the Police Commander who is re-
sponsible for the whole operation would go to the field with his staff, (...) the commander listened 
to several people and discussed, he was a person already with a lot of experience at that time in 
these matters, but he still listened to many people and then made decisions’ (Interview 1).

165

  
Conclusions

Police are the cornerstone of public order and security/safety of demonstrations and meet-
ings. Police are crucial to protect fundamental rights and freedoms of citizens during mani-
festations and public gatherings.

Having the event a fragmented organisation there was no formal representative to deal with 
to make the usual planning meetings. The information was being delivered through diverse 
sources, different organisers, thus posing a problem to the police. The collected information 
was  fuzzy,  giving  no  warranty  of  reliability  and  accuracy.  This  is  becoming  an  increasing 
problem the police have to cope with. Nevertheless, the increasing autonomy citizens have 
in searching, analysing, and producing information, using new technological devices and 
channels pose a new problem to the police. Of course ‘technology per se does not produce 
cultural and political change, although it does always have powerful effects of an indeter-
minate kind. Yet, the possibilities created by the new multimodal, interactive communica-
tion system extraordinarily reinforce the chances for new messages and new messengers to 
populate the communication networks of society at large’ (Castells, 2009: 414).

On the other hand, in these situations, there is no leadership, and this may turn into a diffi-
culty for the organisers themselves to act together with the demonstrators they don’t know, 
to organise them or to contain some disruptive or violent behaviours. Considering this par-
ticular  kind  of  citizenship,  self-mobilisation  for  civic  participation,  and  genuine  interest  in 
building up a fair society, one may say this event was the Portuguese democracy pinnacle.

Nevertheless, Portuguese police need to improve its protocols according to the different 
scenarios. Also, police need to improve command and control during these events. Training 
in mediation and negotiation to all police organisation should be extended as well as train-
ing in analytic research in social networks. Furthermore, both media monitoring and media 
training have to be considered of crucial importance for the police, as ‘different forms of 
control and manipulation of messages and communication in the public space are at the 
heart of power-making’ (Castells, 2009: 302).

Lessons learned and recommendations:
 — Mediation, negotiation and dialogue, intelligence, public order, coordination, and co-

operation are fundamental;

 — Understand social networks and protest repertoire;

 — Identification of threats, vulnerabilities, and risks;

 — Definition of policing strategy: low profile and high visibility of police resources, high 

profile when and where it is relevant;

 — Differentiation and facilitation based on behaviours;

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Planning and policing of public demonstrations: A case study

 — Improve public communication strategy;

 — Monitor social media permanently;

 — Improve police training and education;

 — Make research during real time events.

A permanent work of adaptation — chameleon style of policing — to the new social envi-
ronment is part of the police strategy. Ensuring the balance between freedom and security 
in the complex world we live in is even more difficult, given the multidimensional nature of 
socio-political phenomena and the permanent scrutiny of public authorities.

References

•  Adang, O. M. J. and Cuvelier, C. (2001), Policing Euro 2000: International police cooperation, information 

management and police deployment, Ubbergen: Felix-Tandem.

•  Bauman, Z. (2000), Liquid modernity, Cambridge: Polity Press.

•  Castells, M. (2009), Communication power, New York: Oxford University Press.

•  Della Porta, D. (1995), Social movements, political violence, and the state: A comparative analysis of Italy and 

Germany, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

•  Della Porta, D. and Reiter, H. (1998), Policing Protest. The control of mass demonstrations in Western societies, 

Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

•  Felgueiras, S. (2016a), Ação policial face à ação coletiva: Teoria para uma estratégia de policiamento de multidões, 

Lisboa: ISCPSI.

•  Felgueiras, S. (2016b), Geração à rasca, Lisboa: Chiado.

•  Ghiglione, R. and Matalon, B. (2001), O inquérito: Teoria e prática [The survey: Theory and practice] (4th ed.), 

Oeiras: Celta.

•  Gigerenzer, G. (2001), The adaptive toolbox, In Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. (Eds.), Bounded rationality: The 

adaptive toolbox (pp. 37-50), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

•  Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. (2001), Rethinking rationality, In Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. (Eds.), Bounded 

rationality: The adaptive toolbox (pp. 1-12), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

•  Gigerenzer, G. and Todd, P. (1999), Fast and frugal heuristics: The adaptive toolbox, In Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. 
and ABC Research Group (Eds.), Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 3-36), New York: Oxford University 
Press.

•  Oliveira, M. and Pais, L. G. (2010), Tomada de decisão na adolescência: Do conflito à prudência [Decision-
making in adolescence: From conflict to prudence.], In Fonseca, A. C. (Ed.), Crianças e adolescentes: Uma 
abordagem multidisciplinar (pp. 419-475), Coimbra: Almedina.

•  Pais, L. G., Felgueiras, S. Rodrigues, A., Santos, J. and Varela, T. (2015), Protesto político e atividade policial: 

A perceção dos media [Political protest and police activity: The media perception.] Análise Social, 216 L (3), 
494-517.

•  Ratinho, B. (2015), Por que os polícias decidem dar ordem de paragem: Um estudo sobre a tomada de decisão 
[Why do police officers make the decision to give a stopping order: A study on the decision-making.] 
(Unpublished master’s thesis), Instituto Superior de Ciências Policiais e Segurança Interna, Lisboa, Portugal.

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•  Rivers, S. E., Reyna, V. F. and Mills, B. (2008), Risk taking under the influence: A fuzzy-trace theory of emotion in 

adolescence, Developmental Review, 28, 107-144.

•  Simon, H. A. (1956), Rational choice and the structure of the environment, Psychological Review, 63 (2), 129-

138.

•  Simon, H. A. (1990), Invariants of human behaviour, Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 1-19.

•  Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E. and MacGregor, D. G. (2005), Affect, risk and decision making, Health 

Psychology, 24 (4, Suplement), S35-S40.

•  Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E. and MacGregor, D. G. (2002), The affect heuristic, In Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. and 

Kahneman, D. (Eds.), Heuristics and biases (pp. 397-429), New York: Cambridge University Press.

•  Todd, P. (2001), Fast and frugal heuristics for environmentally bounded minds, In Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. 

(Eds.), Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox (pp. 51-70), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

•  Todd, P. and Gigerenzer, G. (2000), Précis of simple heuristics that make us smart. Behavioural and Brain 

Sciences, 23, 727-780.

168

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the 
Police: Public Security Police 
and National Republican Guard 
Officer’s attitudes to Public 
Administration Policies

Nuno Miguel Parreira da Silva
Military Academy, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract
The main goal of this paper (20) is to assess the Public Security Police (PSP) and the National Republican 
Guard (NRG) officer’s attitudes in the context of the recent changes of policies in the Portuguese public 
administration occurring in these two institutions. This moment assumes significant interest due to the 
fact that Portugal is redefining security and national defence strategies. From the theoretical point of 
view, this paper emphasises the importance of knowing a settled opinion of the police officers, as well 
as their attitudes/behaviours, in the institutional context, especially when exogenous factors cause 
organisational  shifts.  On  the  other  hand,  considering  the  complexity  of  socioeconomic  reality,  we 
tried to identify, understand and highlight how the police forces have distinct ways of looking and 
dealing with these changes of policy. On an empirical level, this paper contributes to an enrichment 
of  literature  review,  emphasising  the  moderator  role  that  officer’s  perceptions  play  for  the  policy 
restructure of public administration, in the relation between the predicted variables analysed and their 
attitudes to their institutional changes. In the police policy level, suggestions and recommendations 
useful for adopting future strategies were also included for policymakers to consider.

Keywords
Public administration policies, public policy, police, attitudes, citizenship

(20) This article is based on my PhD thesis in Sociology, defended in 2013 at ISCTE — University Institute of 

Lisbon.

169169

Introduction

As usual in a classical path of scientific research, we formulate a key issue to guide our inves-
tigation: What are the attitudes of GNR and PSP officers (21) towards changes brought about by 
the reform and restructuring process that these institutions underwent within the framework of 
ongoing reforms in Public Administration?

The ‘justifications’ and ‘motivations’ that led us to carry out the research were the following:

(i)  Lack of studies on police reforms;

(ii)  No studies on the attitudes of Security Forces personnel;

(iii)  Increase knowledge about Security Forces;

(iv)  New reform of the Security Forces is scheduled.

As it is difficult to present the theoretical framework of our investigation here, it should be 
noted that in Portugal the public administration (PA) reform trend was at its peak in 2005 
with the approval of the Restructuring Programme for the State’s Central Administration 
(PRACE), which had consequences on the entire PA, including the GNR and PSP (Silva, 2015).

In the case of the two security forces, internal changes with structural and functional im-
pact were only visible after their Organic Laws were issued in 2007. However the creation, 
extinction, modification or transfer of PSP and GNR units, services and bodies only took 
place in 2008 and 2009.

Within this context, we should highlight that ‘while in some countries police organisation-
al structures have been subject to frequent reform, in Portugal the police model has re-
mained all but unaltered since the end of the 19th century’ (Durão, 2011, p. 396). This model 
has a dualist organisational structure in relation to the larger police bodies, a police force 
with military status (GNR) and another police force with civilian status (PSP) (22). The GNR 
and PSP are the only security police forces focused on complying fully with the basic duties 
of the Portuguese Internal Security System (23) (see Figure 1).

(21) When I use the term ‘officer’ in this article, I am referring only to higher ranks (see Table 1.).
(22) This is the case across the states of southern Europe, e.g. Spain, France and Italy (Monjardet, 1996).
(23) Criminal Prevention; Public Order, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

Figure 1 — Portuguese Military Forces, Security Forces, Security Services (24)

Thus, given the scope of the object of study and interdisciplinary nature of this research, 
with a highly exploratory character, the following objectives were defined for our investiga-
tion:

(i)  Explore and discover an organisational area which is understudied in Portugal;

(ii)  Analyse the attitudes of GNR and PSP officers towards the changes brought about by 
the reform and restructuring process;

(iii)  Increase and update knowledge about Portuguese police forces.

Research Methodology

In this investigation we have adopted a quantitative research strategy. As for the techniques 
of collection and analysis of empirical information to be used, we relied on documentary 
analysis, 12 semi-directive exploratory interviews (7 GNR + 5 PSP) and 507 questionnaire 
surveys (250 GNR + 257 PSP) (25).

For  a  representative  sample  of  the  population  (712  GNR  +  778  PSP  =  1  490  officers)  we 
used the ‘hierarchical rank’ stratification variable, which allowed us to create a proportion-
ate  stratified  sample  (Table  1)  consisting  of  507  police  officers  from  both  security  forces 
(250 GNR + 257 PSP).

(24) See page: http://www.gnr.pt/missao.aspx
(25) Field work: 2010/2011.

171

  
Table 1 — Proportionate Stratified Sample

Police Forces

Police Officers
Population 2010

Stratum
Weight

Sample
Size

GNR
(Military Status)

PSP
(Civilian Force)

GNR

PSP

GNR

PSP

GNR

PSP

20

58

33

91

35

13

10

11

37

52

147

-

s
e

i
r
o
g
e
t
a
C
/
s
k
n
a
r

r
e
h
g
H

i

Colonel 
(OF-05)

Lieutenant 
Colonel 
(OF-04)

Major 
(OF-03)

Captain 
(OF-02)

Lieutenant 
(OF-01)

Superintendent

58

Intendant

165

31

34

0.08

0.04

0.23

0.04

Sub-intendent

95

112

0.13

0.14

Commissioner

258

157

0.36

0.20

Second Lieutenant 
(OF-01)

---

Sub-commissioner

444

0.14

0.57

99

37

-

-

0.05

1.00

Total

712

778

1.00

250

257

Later in light of the theoretical issue, whose main scenario was public administration re-
forms, we defined three hypotheses that enable providing a causal explanation between 
independent  and  dependent  variables  identified  in  the  following  analysis  model  (see 
Figure 2).

Figure 2 — Initial conceptual model

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017 
Between the Military and the Police:

Hypothesis 1: The GNR and PSP officers’ perception on the administration reform/mod-
ernisation policy plays a mediating role for the relation between the personal and pro-
fessional attributes of the officers and their attitudes concerning the GNR and PSP re-
structuring processes.

Hypothesis 2: The GNR and PSP officers’ perception on the administration reform/mod-
ernisation policy plays a mediating role for the relation between knowledge and training 
on public administration reforms and the officers’ attitudes concerning the GNR and PSP 
restructuring processes.

Hypothesis 3: The GNR and PSP officers’ perception on the administration reform/mod-
ernisation policy plays a mediating role for the relation between conceptions of police 
work and the officers’ attitudes concerning the GNR and PSP restructuring processes.

Results and Discussion

On a global analysis, with regard to the socio-demographic and professional insertion char-
acterisation, the striking feature is that more than half of the officers surveyed are 40 years 
of age or older.

With respect to the marital status of the officers surveyed, most of them are married, where-
by the figures are very similar in both Security Forces. Regarding the academic qualifica-
tions,  there  are  officers  within  the  GNR  and  PSP,  but  more  substantially  within  the  GNR, 
who although performing the same functions, pursued completely different educational 
and professional trajectories. This situation tends to fade completely over the next 10 years, 
given that the course to gain admission to the GNR and PSP confers a master’s degree on 
the new officers.

In terms of the professional attributes of officers, Sub-commissioners, Captains and Lieuten-
ant Colonels predominate. As for the duties performed by these officers, within the GNR and 
PSP, most carry out command functions, as expected, yet the percentage is slightly higher 
within the PSP. As for inspection and enforcement duties, as well as instruction/ training/
teaching functions, as might be expected, they present relatively low figures. Lastly, it was 
furthermore apparent in this research that most GNR and PSP officers have between 10 to 
50 people working under their supervision.

In relation to the conceptions of the police work of GNR and PSP officers and, in particu-
lar, with regard to the ‘work environment and relations’, approximately half of the officers 
surveyed stated that, if they could choose, they would opt for working longer hours and 
earning  more  money;  this  percentage  is  slightly  higher  within  the  PSP.  Half  of  the  offic-
ers  surveyed  consider  that  their  jobs  are  steady,  interesting  and,  above  all,  that  is  useful 

173

  
to society. In reference to remuneration and promotion opportunities, opinions are more 
diverse, although the majority disagrees partially with such assertions. Lastly, with regard 
to relations with co-workers, immediate superiors and subordinates, such are considered 
to be ‘not good’, ‘good’ and ‘very good’, respectively, whether on the whole or specifically 
within the GNR and PSP.

In general, the professional career of the GNR and PSP officers is assessed as ‘falling short of 
their expectations’ by more than half of the officers of both forces. Only a small percentage 
of the officers considered that ‘it exceeded expectations’. A significant percentage of the 
officers  within  the  GNR  considered  ‘future  career  opportunities  to  be  reasonable’;  whilst 
within the PSP ‘future career opportunities are considered to be poor’.

When analysing the results obtained, regarding the conceptions of the GNR and PSP offic-
ers’ profession, it was clear that the statements which, on average, attained more agree-
ment were: ‘I’m proud to work for my institution’; ‘the social prestige of the security forces 
is  directly  related  to  measures  which  confirm  the  public  recognition  of  the  value  of  the 
service  rendered’  and  ‘my  performance  should  be  directed  to  the  goals  set  out  by  the 
organisation’. On the other hand, on the opposite side, the statements that, on average, 
the GNR and PSP officers disagreed most upon were: ‘I would trade my institution for a job 
I like’; ‘my interests should be defended by socio-professional associations’ and ‘the officer’s 
performance assessment should be aimed at merely evaluating one’s professional compe-
tence and not one’s personal skills’.

As regards knowledge and training on public administration reforms, GNR and PSP officers 
believe that the activity carried out by the public administration is on average effective. 
Besides, it should be noted that slightly more than half of the officers surveyed never par-
ticipated in simplification activities implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs; and those 
who  did  attend  merely  attended  one  activity.  As  it  is  impossible  to  highlight  the  major 
differences, with regard to the number of activities wherein the officers of the two security 
forces participated, what should be noted is that over such an extended period of time the 
number of activities is very low.

Regarding  the  participation  of  GNR  and  PSP  officers  in  training  activities,  on  the  whole, 
more than half of the sample did not attend any training activities. This percentage gains 
even more importance within the GNR, when compared with the number of PSP officers. 
When this issue is combined with the time variable, it appears that more than half of the 
officers surveyed did not participate in conferences on public administration reform over 
the last 3 years; and those who did attend merely attended one conference. Most GNR and 
PSP officers considered it necessary to undergo further complementary vocational training 
to allow for improving the performance of their current duties, namely within Police Man-
agement/Operational Activity, Public Administration and Auditing, and Human Resources 
Management.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

Yet, when the officers were asked if they attended vocational training activities pertaining 
to the public administration reform, even if at their own expense, on the whole, only a very 
small percentage stated that they were involved in vocational training activities in this field. 
The utility of training and the degree of information on the most important issues related 
to their service within the GNR and PSP are considered high among the officers of both se-
curity forces. GNR and PSP officers generally favour the idea of their staff undergoing train-
ing and a very high ratio of GNR and PSP officers superiorly propose that their employees 
attend vocational training activities.

Internally, the GNR and PSP Social Portals, combined with the ‘restructuring of the official 
websites of both Institutions on the Internet’, were considered to be simplification and de-
bureaucratisation measures with very positive effects on the functioning of the cited two 
institutions,  conveying  an  image  of  innovation  and  greater  transparency  of  the  services 
rendered to the citizens as well as rapid access to information.

Externally, the GNR and PSP have achieved very positive results in terms of simplification 
and democratisation of citizens’ access to the security forces, which allows for implement-
ing new policing programmes that encourage interaction with the public via internet.

However it should also be noted that, regardless of the effects produced, above all in terms 
of simplification of internal and external processes, with measurable results in the quality of 
the service provided to citizens, the reform fell ‘far short’ of the intended major reforms of 
the internal security system and internal organisation of the security forces.

From the analysis to GNR and PSP organisational structure and contexts, the following was 
found:  similarities  in  the  variables  —  integration/specialisation/standardisation/formalisa-
tion/ centralisation and configuration; low activity structure/high authority concentration; 
more mechanistic type structural configurations; in general, more similarities than differ-
ences in the organisational design.

Furthermore, that same will of some convergence in the organisational design, by Ministry 
of  Internal  Affairs,  also  became  evident  in  the  latest  restructuring  of  the  security  forces, 
where, despite the various working groups and studies carried out, the forces did not have 
a decisive participation in the main strategic orientations that were shaped in the respective 
organic laws, staff and remuneration regulations and in the actual health systems where ‘an 
approximation in wording was clear’. In the GNR, for example, as a result of the restructuring 
process and upon proposal of an auditing firm, the Brigade command echelon which was 
typically characteristic of the military institution was suppressed, and the Traffic and Fiscal 
Brigades were extinct, among many other changes.

As for officers ‘perceptions on the “effects of public administration modernisation measures 
pertaining to the functioning of public services” ’, the issues that gave rise to a greater num-

175

  
ber of positive assessments by officers were, on average, the computerisation of services; 
the simplification of procedures and communications; the enhancement of coordination/
communication among public administration bodies. On the other hand, no issues were 
identified  as  having  negative  effects.  However,  there  were  issues  that,  according  to  the 
officers, had no effect whatsoever, mainly the following: reduction of the number of civil 
servants; replacement of the traditional remuneration system by performance-based sal-
ary; employee performance assessment by external public entities. GNR and PSP officers 
furthermore consider themselves averagely aware of the simplification and debureaucrati-
sation measures implemented by the Ministry of Internal Affairs in recent years. Moreover, 
the average was found to be slightly higher among GNR officers than PSP officers.

The ‘GNR and PSP Social Portals’ and the ‘electronic management system of documents 
seized from drivers’ were the simplification and debureaucratisation measures implement-
ed in the Ministry of Internal Affairs with effects on the functioning of the GNR and PSP that, 
on average, were regarded as the most positive by the GNR and PSP officers. It was further-
more verified that slightly more than half of the GNR and PSP officers surveyed stated that 
they had never participated in administrative modernisation activities promoted by GNR 
or PSP.

With regard to likely public administration modernisation obstacles, officers of both secu-
rity forces tend, on average, to identify the ‘lack of political will to carry out reforms’ and the 
‘financial costs of reforms’ as the most relevant.

The measures implemented and that most benefited the officers surveyed concern aspects 
related to ‘occupational independence’ and ‘occupational safety/stability’. The benefit re-
lated to ‘occupational independence’ is also higher whether in GNR or PSP.

The ‘creation of shared services common to the two forces’ and the ‘proper articulation of 
areas of responsibility between the GNR and PSP’ were the two measures common to GNR 
and PSP that officers considered to have more positive effects on the functioning of both 
institutions. On the other hand, the measures that officers considered to have more nega-
tive effects were the ‘GNR and PSP retirement regime reform’.

As we had the opportunity to clarify previously, our analysis model as well as the hypotheti-
cal cases that we set for this research assume that the GNR and PSP officers’ perception on 
the administration reform/modernisation policy plays a mediating role on the relation be-
tween ‘officers’ personal and professional attributes’, the ‘conceptions of police work’ and 
the ‘knowledge and training on public administration reforms’ and ‘their attitudes pertain-
ing to the GNR and PSP restructuring processes’.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

We  thus  operationalised  three  mediation  models  that  show  the  three  hypotheses  that 
guided  this  investigation  (see  Figures  3,  4  and  5).  The  strategy  developed  by  Baron  and 
Kenny’s (1986) was used to test these mediation models.

Figure 3 — Mediation model 1

Figure 4 — Mediation model 2

Figure 5 — Mediation model 3

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After analysing the results attained through linear regression, it was possible to conclude 
that the variables relating to the ‘personal and professional attributes’ did not reveal a sta-
tistically significant effect on officers’ attitudes pertaining to the GNR and PSP restructuring 
processes. Thus, contrary to the initial analysis model, the results showed that the percep-
tions that officers have on the administration reform/modernisation policy simply mediate 
the  ‘conceptions  of  police  work’  and  the  ‘knowledge  and  training  that  officers  have  on 
public administration reforms’, which means that the model was only partially supported. 
In  view  of  these  results,  the  final  analysis  model  shall  be  replaced  by  the  following  (see 
Figure 6).

Figure 6 — Final conceptual model

The results obtained indicate that the model explains 7.7 % of the total variation of the of-
ficers’ attitudes towards the restructuring processes, being significant (F (1, 476) = 15,800, 
p < 0.001) (see Table 2.)

This means that the work environment and the modernisation measures contribute to ex-
plain the attitudes of officers. However we have a full mediation since the effect of the work 
environment on officers’ attitudes ceased to be significant in the presence of modernisa-
tion measures, being the indirect effect significant (Sobel Z = 3.277, p < 0.001).

The  results  therefore  show  that  the  perceptions  on  the  administration  reform/moderni-
sation  policy  have  a  positive  effect  on  officers’  attitudes  pertaining  to  the  GNR  and  PSP 
restructuring processes (see Figure 7).

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

Figure 7 — Mediator role of the perceptions on the effects of the public administration 
modernisation measures on the conceptions of police work (work environment) and the officer’s 
attitudes concerning to the GNR and PSP restructuring processes

Table 2 
Regression analysis of the Officer’s Attitudes on ‘conceptions of police work’ (work environment) 
and ‘public administration measures’

1

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.127

Independent variables

Work environment

Public Administration 
modernisation measures

Adjusted R2

0.014

2

3

Public Administration 
modernisation measures

Officer’s Attitudes

β

0.179

0.030

β

0.082

0.259**

0.077

F (1, 466) =7,603

F (1, 476) =15,800

F (2, 465) =20,485

* p < 0.05 ** p < 0.001

Next,  we  will  determine  the  mediator  role  of  the  perceptions  on  the  effects  of  the  sim-
plification and  debureaucratisation measures  implemented  by Ministry of  Internal Affairs 
(mediator) in the relation between the conceptions of police work (vocation) (independent 
variable) and the attitudes of the officers towards the GNR and PSP restructuring processes 
(dependent variable).

In this case the model explains 4.2 % of the total variation of officers’ attitudes towards the 
restructuring processes, being significant [F (1.444) = 10.893, p < 0.001] (see Table 3). This 
means that the vocation and the simplification measures implemented by Ministry of Inter-
nal Affairs contribute to explain the attitudes of officers.

179

  
Yet we have a full mediation given that the effect of vocation on officers’ attitudes ceased 
to be significant in the presence of the simplification measures implemented by Ministry of 
Internal Affairs, being the indirect effect significant (Sobel Z = 2.571, p = 0.010).

The  results  therefore  show  that  the  perceptions  on  the  administration  reform/moderni-
sation  policy,  namely  the  effects  of  the  simplification  and  debureaucratisation  measures 
implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs, have a positive effect on officers’ attitudes per-
taining to the GNR and PSP restructuring processes (see Figure 8).

Figure 8 — Mediator role of the perceptions of the simplification and reducing bureaucracy 
measures implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs on conceptions of police work (vocation) and 
the officer’s attitudes concerning to the GNR and PSP restructuring processes

Table 3 
Regression analysis of the Officer’s Attitudes on ‘conceptions of police work (vocation)’ and 
‘perceptions on the effects of the simplification and reducing bureaucracy measures implemented 
by Ministry of Internal Affairs’.

1

2

3

Independent variables

Vocation

Simplification measures implemented 
by Ministry of Internal Affairs

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.107*

Simplification meas-
ures implemented by 
Ministry of Internal 
Affairs

β

0.155**

Adjusted R2

0.009*

0.022 **

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.078

0.189**

0.042**

F (1, 436) =5,028

F (1, 444) =10,893

F (2, 435) = 10,605

* p < 0.05 ** p < 0.001

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

In another effort, we also tried to determine the mediator role of the perceptions on the ef-
fects of the public administration modernisation measures in the relation between knowl-
edge and training on public administration reforms (training utility) and the attitudes of the 
officers towards the GNR and PSP restructuring processes.

In this case, the model explains 6.9 % of the total variation of officers’ attitudes relating to 
the restructuring processes, being significant [F (1, 387) = 11.660, p < 0.001] (See Table 4). 
This means that the training utility and the public administration modernisation measures 
contribute to explain the attitudes of the officers.

However we have a partial mediation since the effect of the training utility on officers’ at-
titudes ceased to be significant in the presence of the public administration modernisation 
measures, being the indirect effect significant (Sobel Z = 2.774, p = 0.005).

The results therefore show that the perceptions on the administration reform/modernisa-
tion policy, namely the effects of the public administration modernisation measures, have 
a positive effect on officers’ attitudes towards the GNR and PSP restructuring processes (see 
Figure 9).

Figure 9 — Mediator role of the perceptions on effects of the public administration modernisation 
measures on the knowledge and training on public administration reforms (training utility) and the 
officer’s attitudes concerning to the GNR and PSP restructuring processes

181

  
Table 4 
Regression analysis of the Officer’s Attitudes on ‘Knowledge and training on public administration 
reforms (training utility)’ and ‘public administration measures’

Independent 
variables

Training utility

Public administration  
modernisation measures

1

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.148*

2

Public administration 
modernisation measures

β

0.171**

Adjusted R2

0.019*

0.27**

3

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.107*

0.232**

0.069**

F (1, 382) =8,504

F (1, 387) =11,660

F (2, 381) =15,221

* p < 0.05 ** p < 0.001

Finally, an attempt was further made to determine the mediator role of the perceptions on 
the  effects  of  the  simplification  and  debureaucratisation  measures  implemented  by  the 
Ministry of Internal Affairs in the relation between knowledge and training on public ad-
ministration reforms (training utility) and the attitudes of the officers towards the GNR and 
PSP  restructuring  processes,  as  graphically  represented  in  Figure  10  and  summarised  in 
Table 5.

Figure 10 — Mediator role of the perceptions on effects of the simplification and reducing 
bureaucracy measures implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs and knowledge and training on 
public administration reforms (training utility) and the officer’s attitudes concerning the GNR and 
PSP restructuring processes

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

Table 5 — Regression analysis of the Officer’s Attitudes on ‘Knowledge and training on public 
administration reforms (training utility)’ and ‘simplification and reducing bureaucracy measures 
implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs’

1

2

3

Independent variables

Training utility

Simplification measures implemented 
by Ministry of Internal Affairs

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.168**

Simplification meas-
ures implemented by 
Ministry of Internal 
Affairs

β

0.265**

Adjusted R2

0.026**

0.068**

Officer’s
Attitudes

β

0.118*

0.192**

0.058**

F (1, 372) =10,823

F (1, 377) =28,567

F (2,371) =12,397

* p < 0.05 ** p < 0.001

The model explains 5.8 % of the total variation of officers’ attitudes pertaining to the re-
structuring  processes,  being  significant  [F  (1,  377)  =  28.567,  p  <  0.001]  (See  Table  5).  This 
means that the training utility and the simplification measures implemented by Ministry of 
Internal Affairs contribute to explain the attitudes of officers.

Yet we have a partial mediation given that the effect of the training utility on officers’ at-
titudes  ceased  to  be  significant  with  the  presence  of  the  simplification  and  debureauc-
ratisation measures implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs, being the indirect effect 
significant (Sobel Z = 3.060, p = 0.002).

The  results  therefore  show  that  the  perceptions  on  the  administration  reform/moderni-
sation  policy,  namely  the  effects  of  the  simplification  and  debureaucratisation  measures 
implemented by Ministry of Internal Affairs, have a positive effect on officers’ attitudes to-
wards the GNR and PSP restructuring processes (See Figure 10).

In short, from the three hypotheses in this research, where we assumed that the GNR and 
PSP officers’ perception on the administration reform/modernisation policy plays a mediat-
ing role on the relation between ‘officers’ personal and professional attributes’ (Hypothesis 
1), the ‘conceptions of police work’ (Hypothesis 2) and the ‘knowledge and training on pub-
lic administration reforms’ (Hypothesis 3) and their attitudes pertaining to the GNR and PSP 
restructuring processes, only hypotheses 2 and 3 were validated, as it was not possible to 
corroborate hypothesis 1.

As explained throughout this investigation, the initial analysis model as well as the hypoth-
eses established assumed that the perception that the GNR and PSP officers’ perception on 
the administration reform/modernisation policy played a mediating role on the relation be-

183

  
tween ‘officers’ personal and professional attributes’, the ‘conceptions of police work’ and 
the ‘knowledge and training on public administration reforms’ and their attitudes towards 
the GNR and PSP restructuring processes.

Conclusions

At a time when the redefining of national security and defence strategy issues assumes 
growing importance and undeniable weight in the context of public security policies in 
Portugal, the completion of this research of a highly exploratory character mainly aimed 
to analyse the impact that the last reform had on the only two police forces (GNR and PSP) 
that are directed towards the full compliance of the basic duties of the Internal Security 
System — criminal prevention; public order; criminal investigation and intelligence.

Nevertheless, we also sought to highlight the essential dualism that exists in Portugal re-
garding the military nature of the National Republican Guard and the civilian nature of the 
Public Security Police, which has survived all the reformist winds, although sometimes ob-
scured in the superficiality of several works, even academic, or in the immediacy of several 
reflections with some lack of analytical distancing.

Although some changes have been verified regarding to the work procedures and organi-
sational  structure  of  the  security  forces  in  Portugal,  on  a  global  analysis  the  final  status 
desired by Ministry of Internal Affairs was not attained, that is, the GNR and PSP continue to 
be based essentially on rigid and bureaucratic systems, not giving way to the emergence 
of more flexible structures that are capable of adapting to the new challenges of contem-
porary societies.

On the other hand, there are still ambiguities and overlaps in the definition of responsibili-
ties of the security forces and the desired streamlining of structures and management of 
means needed for the performance of duties was only partially achieved.

However, in the case of this investigation, it is fair to say that there was no organisational 
change prompted by the security forces themselves with the aim of changing their organi-
sational systems; instead there was an organisational change that resulted from external 
factors to the GNR and PSP that changed their functioning, causing an entire organisational 
transformation, giving rise to adaptive responses by both organisations, which was more 
evident within the GNR.

Although some changes have been verified regarding to the work procedures and organi-
sational  structure  of  the  security  forces  in  Portugal,  based  essentially  on  a  logic  of  cost 
reduction and without considering the distinct organisational cultures (military versus ci-
vilian), as were the cases of greater complexification and standardisation of the staff and 

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Between the Military and the Police:

remuneration  regulations  and  the  severe  loss  of  social  supports  at  the  health  insurance 
system level, on a global analysis we can conclude the final status desired by Ministry of 
Internal Affairs was not attained.

The expectation that the reform of the security forces would lead to a significant release of 
staff to perform the operational activity, as well as internally providing jobs for civilians, and 
the closure of unnecessary posts and police stations did not prove true; putting thus into 
question one of the main objectives of the reform that consisted in the standardisation of 
structures and effectiveness of security forces, ‘preventing the apparatus from performing 
more effective policing’.

There  was  insufficient  interpretation  of  the  proposals  submitted,  in  legislative  measures, 
set out in the Internal Security Law and also in the new PSP and GNR Organic Laws and 
Statutes.

On the other hand, the actual resistance to reform based on changes imposed by law al-
lows us to currently conclude, by way of assessment, that the effective reform of the Minis-
try of Internal Affairs, once again, fell far short of what appeared to be the original intention 
of policy decision-makers.

In short, despite the efforts of the last reform in 2007, the GNR and PSP continue to be based 
essentially on strict and bureaucratic systems, not giving way to the emergence of more 
flexible  structures  that  are  capable  of  adapting  to  the  new  challenges  of  contemporary 
societies. Predictably causing a negative impact on the structure and effectiveness of the 
forces, but also some discontent and resistance of its personnel, broadcast in the media by 
the  associations  and  the  top  leaders  themselves,  without  forgetting  the  undeniable  dis-
crediting of policymakers in the eyes of the public.

Finally, it should further be pointed out that very few studies have been carried out in Por-
tugal that analyse the security forces and, in particular, the attitude and perception issue 
of their staff, as is the case of the officers. Moreover, there is no known study in Portugal to 
try to identify predictors of attitudes of a professional universe with peculiar characteristics, 
such  as  the  police;  which  is  why  this  study  assumes  an  essentially  exploratory  character 
and does not resort to the already consolidated scientific research on this subject. It should 
furthermore be noted that this research aims to become the starting point for other studies 
in this area.

185

  
References

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Portuguese police officers, Social Anthropology/Anthropologie Sociale 19, 394-408.

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Interna. Relatório Final — Modelos e Cenários, Lisboa: Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais da 
Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

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Paulo: Edusp.

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Proximidade, Coimbra: Edições Almedina.

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tests, Retrieved from http://quantpsy.org/sobel/sobel.htm.

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e Defesa, Coleção Segurança e Defesa, Loures: Diário de Bordo.

•  Silva, N. (2015), Entre o Militar e o Policial — As reformas da Administração Pública. Lisboa: Diário de Bordo.

•  Teixeira, C. (2002), Atitude dos funcionários face à modernização da Administração Pública, Dissertação de 

Mestrado. Lisboa: ISCTE.

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Interna, Relatório Preliminar, Lisboa: Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais da Universidade Nova de 
Lisboa.

186

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Writing instruments inks: 
microspectrophotometry forensic 
analysis and characterisation 

Ana Cristina de Almeida Assis
Scientific Police Laboratory, Judiciary Police, Portugal
Filipa Isabel Romano Inácio
Department of Chemistry, University of Coimbra, Portugal
João Sérgio Seixas de Melo
Coimbra Chemistry Centre, Department of Chemistry, University of 
Coimbra, Portugal
Carlos Farinha
Scientific Police Laboratory, Judiciary Police, Portugal

Abstract
An important aspect in the analysis of written documents is the type of materials used in questionable 
documents. The present study aims to characterise and create a database of the absorption spectra 
in  the  visible  region,  obtained  by  microspectrophotometry  (in  reflectance  mode),  of  inks  from  blue 
and black writing instruments, such as ballpoint pens and liquid ink pens (rollerball pens, gel pens, 
felt-tip pens and fountain pens). The study was performed with 167 ink samples of 36 different brands 
commonly used in national and international markets. To validate the possible use of the database 
a  preliminary  blind  test  with  22  samples  yielding  a  consistent  and  accurate  match  of  13  samples 
revealed  that  this  technique  has  a  good  potential  to  obtain  a  list  of  inks  with  the  same  spectral 
characteristics. To evaluate the differentiation level of this method the samples were grouped based on 
the overlap of the 1st derivative spectra. As this grouping systematisation was found to present some 
limitations when we have a large number of samples, a multivariate analysis of the data was made. 
For this, a hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was performed. The discrimination power was calculated 
and compared with another works.

Keywords
Document examination, ink analysis, blue and black writing instruments, microspectrophotometry, 
hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)

187187

Introduction

The technological development of the past 30 years has put us in a digital era, in which 
we  increasingly  resort  to  electronic  means  for  identification  and  commercialisation  pur-
poses.  However,  documents  continue  to  play  a  key  role  in  different  segments.  They  are 
used in the establishment of various relationships, whether personal, financial, commercial 
or institutional. In order to serve the most varied interests and conveniences, documents 
are in constant threat of being susceptible to imitations or changes. The forgery and coun-
terfeiting of documents is associated with different types of crimes, particularly trafficking 
of drugs, weapons, vehicles and people, money laundering, organised illegal immigration, 
homicides,  kidnapping,  paedophilia,  international  terrorism,  corruption,  theft,  swindling, 
economic and financial crimes (Hammond, 2013).

Scientific  analysis  of  documents,  as  part  of  forensic  science,  aims  to  clarify  the  nature  of 
a  document  for  legal  purposes  (Ellen,  1997).  In  the  Portuguese  Scientific  Police  Labora-
tory different types of analysis to all kinds of questionable documents using appropriate 
methodologies and instrumentation are performed. One of the aspects of the document 
analysis is to detect evidence of tampering. This kind of alterations, where a different ink of 
a manual writing instrument, although of the same colour, has been used, is very common 
and involves overlap and adds features, obliteration and insertion of new entries and signa-
tures for various types of documents such as bank checks, invoices and contracts.

Nowadays one can find more easily manual writing instruments since they are often used 
in the production/filling of a certain document or used to sign it. Writing instruments are 
divided into two major (and broad) categories: (1) ballpoint pens and (2) liquid ink pens. 
In the first category are the inks of the ballpoint pens which are unique in that their inks 
are viscous — oils or glycols are used as solvents and colourants, which are mostly dyes. 
In the second category the inks of the rollerball and gel pens, felt pens and fountain pens 
are included. In this category, inks are liquid or gel using solvents and aqueous solutions in 
their constitution, and whose colourants may be dyes, pigments or both. The colourants 
(dyes or pigments) are one of the main components used in the writing ink composition 
and are responsible for the colour of the writing instruments (Ezcurra et al. 2010; Brunelle et 
al., 2003; Andrasko, 2002).

Microspectrophotometry in the analysis of questionable documents
Colour is a feature with an important role in forensic comparative studies. A visual descrip-
tion of colour, particularly a comparison between two objects is difficult because the hu-
man eye sees only within a narrow range of the electromagnetic radiation (the visible re-
gion), and even in this range it is not uniformly sensitive to all wavelengths. Moreover, the 
lighting and observation conditions can compromise the visual result of the comparison 
made by the observer (Ziȩba-Palus, 2006; Martyna et al. 2013).

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Writing instruments inks: microspectrophotometry forensic analysis and characterisation

Microspectrophotometry  is  a  technique  that  allows  the  comparison  of  colour  between 
small samples from different materials, such as fibres, fabrics, paints or plastics (Ziȩba-Palus, 
2006; Pfefferli, 1983).

The microspectrophotometer consists of an optical microscope coupled to a spectropho-
tometer  connected  to  a  computer  via  an  analogue-digital  converter  (Ziȩba-Palus,  2006; 
Martin, 2014). It can be used for analysis in the visible and ultraviolet regions, and spectra in 
transmittance or reflectance mode can also be obtained (Martin, 2014).

When light interacts with the sample, several (physical) phenomena can occur. These are 
absorption, transmission and reflection (Figure 1.1) in addition to scattering and (fluores-
cence or phosphorescence) emission (not shown in Figure 1.1). In the analysis of the writing 
instrument inks, the diffuse reflection phenomenon is dominant relative to specular reflec-
tion; this happens because the ink is a non-homogeneous sample. Therefore, the reflected 
light is measured with respect to the diffuse reflectance (Seipp, 1997).

Figure 1.1 — The path of light involved in 
the interaction process with a sample. The 
phenomena that are presented are: absorption 
(A), transmission (T) (which only occurs when 
working in transmittance mode) and reflection. 
The reflection may be diffuse (D) or specular (S). 
I0 is the intensity of incident light, It the intensity 
of light leaving the substance and Ir intensity of 
light reflected into a specified direction.  
(Adapted from Seipp, 1997)

A study carried out at the Home Office Forensic Science Laboratory of UK in 1985 showed 
that the microspectrophotometry technique in the transmission mode was less discrimina-
tory  than  the  high  performance  thin  layer  chromathography  (HPTLC)  for  the  porous  tip 
and roller ball pen (Totty, R. et al., 1985). More recently, inks have been studied by HPTLC 
to complete the International Ink Library chromatogram library, maintained by the United 
States Secret Service (Neumann C., 2011).

Microspectrophotometry does not reveal the identity of the individual components of an 
ink and many authors have shown in their investigations that this methodology alone may 
be inconclusive. The use of this technique is comprehensive in terms of its purpose, and has 
been used not only to respond to ink differentiation, but has also been used as a tool for 

189

  
classification and dating (Ziȩba-Palus J. et al., 2012). In 2013, the colour of 40 blue pen inks 
(36 ballpont and 4 gel) was studied in the three colour systems defined by the International 
Commission on Illumination (CIE) through the spectra in the visible region obtained by mi-
crospectrophotometry (Martyna, A. et al., 2013). More recently, this technique was also used 
in the study of the sequence of intersecting lines (Biao Li, 2016), showing positive results.

Reflectance  microspectrophotometry  showed  less  discriminatory  power  when  compared  to 
Thin  Layer  Chromatography  (TLC)  and  filtered  light  examination  (visible  luminescence,  infra-
red  luminescence  and  infrared  reflectance)  (Roux,  C.  et  al.,  1999).  UV-VIS  spectrophotometry 
was also compared with TLC and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometry in the analysis of 21 
black and 12 blue ballpoint inks, being verified the complementarity of the FTIR by detecting 
resins and solvents in addition to the colouring agents (Causin, V. et al.). In most of the studies 
performed with this technique no chemometric methods were used for sample differentiation.

Aim of the study

This study aims to characterise and to analyse writing instrument inks in order to create 
a database of the absorption spectra in the visible region with a non-destructive reflec-
tance mode microspectrophotometry technique. In the present work, the objects of study 
are the inks from blue and black writing instruments, such as ballpoint pens and liquid ink 
pens  (rollerball  pens,  gel  pens,  felt-tip  pens  and  fountain  pens).  To  facilitate  these  com-
parisons and evaluate the discrimination level of the technique, the data obtained from the 
writing instrument inks will be grouped according to the first derivative of the observed 
peaks in the visible region and with a hierarchical cluster analysis method (HCA).

Materials and Instrumentation

Sample characterisation and the ink database
80 blue inks [56 ballpoint pens (BBn), 17 rollerball and gel pens (LBn), 5 felt pens (FBn) and 2 
fountain pens (FOBn)] and 87 black inks [55 ballpoint pens (BKn), 17 rollerball and gel pens 
(LKn), 5 felt-tip pens (FKn) and 10 fountain pens (FOKn)] were analysed. They came either 
from  national  (Portuguese)  or  international  markets  from  36  different  brands  (and  some 
models)  such  as  BIC,  Pentel,  Uni  Mitsubishi  Pencil,  Paper  Mate,  Corvina,  Reynolds,  Molin, 
ACVILA, Lecce Pen, RTC, Office Cover, Pelikan, LINC, STABILO, A.G. SPALDING BROS, WATER-
MAN, mab, PLUS B-2, Unix, Epene, Fegol, Q-CONNECT, PARKER, MONTE LEMA, AURORA, Ro-
tring, Fisher Space Pen, PILOT, STAEDTLER ZEBRA, Ergo marker, HERO, LAMY, CROSS, MONT 
BLANC and ‘white label’ — see tables 2.1 to 2.4.

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European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Writing instruments inks: microspectrophotometry forensic analysis and characterisation

Table 2.1 
Samples of blue (BB) and black (BK) ballpoint pen ink

Code

Brand

Model/name

BB1

BB2

BB3

BB4

BB5

BB6

BB7

BB8

BB9

BB21

BB22

BB31

BB32

BB33

BB34

BB35

BB36

BB37

BB38

BB39

BB40

BB41

BB42

BB43

BB44

BB45

BB46

BB47

BB48

BB49

BB50

BB51

BB52

BB53

BB54

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

Pentel

Pentel

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

E-O-30

U-E-08

P-F-26

N-H-9

T-G-4

T-G-10

A-H-10

Cristal GRIP (Q-H-19)

ATLANTIS

SUPERB (BK77)

STAR V (BK66)

Estetica Dental Lopez (Espanha)

i RISO

www.FCT.unl.pt

Caixa Geral de Depósitos

Caixa Geral de Depósitos-Banco da EXPO 98 Lisboa

Caixa Geral de Depósitos-Banco da EXPO 98 Lisboa

Caixa Geral de Depósitos-Banco da EXPO 98 Lisboa

Caixa Geral de Depósitos-Banco da EXPO 98 Lisboa

Caixa Geral de Depósitos-Banco da EXPO 98 Lisboa

Grupo Banco Espirito Santo (BES)

Note it

Note it

Note it

Sagres-Companhia de Seguros. s.a.

Estúdio Fotográfico, Lda

STAPLES (traço de 0.7 mm)

Note it

USO

IBEROSTAR,Hotels e Resorts (Tunisia)

C A1

STAPLES — REVU

Santander Totta

STAPLES-COMFORT STIC. 1.0

KEESING Technologies

191

  
Brand

White label

White label

White label

Model/name

LaborSpirit,Lda

TECHNO SPEC

---

Uni Mitsubishi Pencil

Lakubo (uni SG-100 (07) blue)

Paper Mate

Ink Joy 100 1.0M (Ponta:1.0 mm)

Corvina

Corvina

Reynolds

molin

ACVILA

Lecce Pen

Lecce Pen

Lecce Pen

RTC

RTC

WH-T (Ponta:1.0 mm)

51 (Ponta:1.0 mm)

Medium 048

twisty

FINE 309

---

---

---

---

---

Office Cover

ASTRO (Ponta: 1.0 mm)

Pelikan

LINC

STABILO

---

Glycer fine

galaxy 818 M

A.G. SPALDING BROS.

---

WATERMAN

STANDARD MAX. (MOYENNE/MEDIUM)

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

BIC

Pentel

Pentel

Pentel

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

Z-E-17

E-O-32

H-E-5

I-H-30

I-H-6

SOFT Feel Med. USA

Cristal GRIP (Q-H-11)

ATLANTIS 1.2

Cristal STYLUS (T-L-03 Tunisia)

SUPERB (BK77)

STAR V

SUPERB (BK77)

STAPLES (Traço de 0.7 mm)

Note it

Note it

USO

Grupo Banco Espirito Santo (BES)

Code

BB55

BB56

BB57

BB81

BB91

BB101

BB102

BB106

BB116

BB121

BB126

BB127

BB128

BB131

BB132

BB136

BB141

BB151

BB156

BB161

BB166

BK1

BK2

BK3

BK4

BK5

BK6

BK7

BK8

BK9

BK21

BK22

BK23

BK31

BK32

BK33

BK34

BK35

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Code

Brand

Model/name

BK36

BK37

BK38

BK39

BK40

BK41

BK42

BK43

BK44

BK45

BK46

BK47

BK71

BK72

BK73

BK81

BK82

BK83

BK91

BK92

BK101

BK106

BK111

BK112

BK116

BK121

BK122

BK126

BK131

BK136

BK137

BK146

BK151

BK156

BK161

BK166

BK171

BK176

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

White label

Pelikan

Pelikan

Pelikan

Paper Mate

Paper Mate

Paper Mate

mab

mab

PLUS B-2

Office Cover

RTC

RTC

Unix

Epene

Epene

Fegol

Q-CONNECT

Uni Mitsubishi Pencil

Uni Mitsubishi Pencil

PARKER

WATERMAN

IP ST-Instituto Português do Sangue e da 
Transplantação,IP

---

---

CS — www.cs-hoteis.com

Sapo.pt

Note it (esferográfica cristal preta)

CA Crédito Agrícola

Novo Banco (Antigo Banco Espirito Santo — BES)

BPI (Banco Português de Investimento)

STAPLES — COMFORT STIC. 1.0

STAPLES — COMFORT STIC. 1.0

Nao tem

STICK

---

STICK

Comfort Mate MED.

Ink Joy 100 1.0M (Ponta: 1,0mm)

Replay U.S.A

---

---

traço 0.7 mm

ASTRO (Ponta: 1.0 mm)

---

---

Unix 2001-TC POINT 0.7 — Italy

ball point pen EP01-0108

ball point pen EP01-0108

Cristal Line 1

Ponta 0.7 mm

Lakubo (uni SG-100(07) black)

Lakubo fine (uni Mitsubishi SA-G JAPAN 45)

Ball Pen Refill (Fine)

STANDARD MAX. (MOYENNE/MEDIUM)

A.G. SPALDING BROS.

---

MONTE LEMA

AURORA

Rotring

Ink Dokumental

tungsten long-life refill

---

Fisher Space Pen

Black Med. Refill Send

193

  
Table 2.2 
Samples of blue (LB) and black (LK) rollerball and gel ink

Code

Brand

Model

Code

Brand

Model

LB1

BIC

Cristal Gel + Medium

LK1

BIC

Cristal Gel + Medium

LB11

Pentel

K108 Hybrid roller (K108-
MC)

LK11

Pentel

K106 Hybrid roller

LB21

White label

Note it 0.7 (gel ink)

LK21 white label

Note it 0.7  (gel ink)

LB22

White label

Note it  (gel ink)

LK22 white label

Note it (gel ink)

LB23

LB24

White label

White label

30457

30457

LK23 white label

LK24 white label

30457

30457

LB25

White label

30457

LK25 white label

LB26

White label

30457

LK41

STAEDTLER

UNITED OFFICE Roller-
ball 0.7

Gel Roller 465 Fine Point 
0,25

LB27

White label

UNITED OFFICE Rollerball 
0.7

LK51

ZEBRA

J-ROLLER MEDIUM 0,7 
(JAPAN E222)

LB41

Paper Mate

Gel - Roller XF (0,5mm) D8

LK61

PILOT

PILOT V BALL 05

LB51

PILOT

PILOT V BALL 05

LK71

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball fine DELUXE 
(UB-177)

LB61

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball fine DELUXE 
(UB-177)

LK72

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UM-100 
JAPAN 89)

LB62

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UM-100 
JAPAN 136 (UM-100 .64))

LK73

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball eYe fine (UB-157 
BLACK)

LB63

LB64

LB65

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UMN-207F 
BLUE)

LK74

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UMN-
207F BLACK)

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball eYe micro (UB-150 
BLUE)

LK75

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball eYe micro (UB-
150 BLACK)

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UM-120 
(0.5) BLUE JAPAN G29)

LK76

Uni Mitsubishi 
Pencil

uni-ball Signo (UM-120 
(0.5) BLACK  JAPAN G32)

LB71

PARKER

Roller ball Refill 0,8 mm 
Blue Medium

LK81

PARKER

Roller ball Refill 0,8mm 
Black Medium

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Table 2.3 
Samples of blue (FB) and black (FK) felt pen ink

Code

Brand

Model

Code

Brand

Model

FB1

Bic

metal point

FK1

Paper Mate

Flair Original M

FB6

Paper Mate

2000 ROLLER

FK6

White label

Grupo Banco Espirito 
Santo (BES)

FB7

Paper Mate

Flair Original M

FK7

White label

note it

FB11

ergo marker

CD/DVD FINE LINER 
4001 0.7 mm

FK8

White label

fiber liner 1 mm (LUS 
I HF — LINE)

FB16

White label

Note it (nylon writing 
markers)

FK11

Rotring

Tikky Graphic 0.5 (pig-
mented ink)

Table 2.4 
Samples of blue (FOB) and black (FOK) fountain pen ink

Code

Brand

Model

Code

Brand

Model

FOB1

HERO

202 (60 mL)

FOK1

HERO

Black ink 204 (Glass Bottle 
60 mL)

FOB5

Pelikan

LEVEL (tinta:329441)

FOK5

LAMY

Black ink (50mL)

FOK6

LAMY

 Rotring (Levenger)

FOK9

PARKER

Quink (SOLV-X)

FOK13

WATER-
MAN

Black ink (50mL)

FOK17

CROSS

Black ink (62,5mL)

FOK21 AURORA

Aurora 88

FOK25

MONT 
BLANC 

ink with super-cleaner SC21

FOK29

Pelikan

LEVEL (ink:329524)

FOK30

Pelikan

Bright black permanent (4001)

The experimental procedure consisted in drawing lines on a white printing paper (80 g/m2, 
A4, Inacopia office®), which was then fixed to a microscope base slide, and placed on the 
stage of the microscope with the microspectrophotometer instrument (Figure 2.1). For ac-
quisition of the absorption spectra a TIDAS MSP-800 microspectrophotometer, consisting 
of a microscope (Zeiss®, Axiotech 100) coupled to a spectrophotometer (J&M Tidas®), was 
used.

195

  
Figure 2.1 — 
Scheme for the 
study of ink 
characteristics: 
physical (ink 
morphology) 
and spectral 
(spectra obtained 
in five analysis in 
different areas).

The blue and black inks were analysed in the visible region between 400 and 800 nm in 
the reflectance mode. In this work, the spectra were obtained in the reflectance mode. This 
mode of obtaining the spectra, besides being non-destructive, allows to have a  sample 
with no previous treatment for analysis (in contrast for example with the spectra in trans-
mittance mode) (Ziȩba-Palus, 2006; Martyna et al., 2013; Pfefferli, 1983). For each ink, five 
measurements were obtained in five different lines and areas of the collected traces of ink, 
using a diaphragm to select each area, under the following conditions: for the microscope 
[Diaphragm dimensions (220.0 × 127.0 μm), image resolution (640 × 80), objective with 20× 
magnification  and  light  intensity  of  the  microscope  10  (maximum)]  and  for  the  spectro-
photometer [Interpolation (YES), Step (1 nm), Representation (Absorbance AU), Scan type 
(Single Scan), Accumulations (3), Bunching (1 Pixel)]. As reference, a white area (i.e. with no 
ink) of the same sheet, where the ink was collected, was used.

Formation of groups for hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)
The hierarchical cluster analysis interconnects objects by their associations, giving rise to 
a dendrogram (bidimensional representation) wherein like objects, according to the cho-
sen variables, are grouped together. The smaller the distance between objects, the greater 
the similarity between them. (Kaufman et al., 1990; Wu et al., 2007; Mendlein et al., 2013). 
To group the analysed samples the Euclidean distance (to calculate the distance between 
each pair of objects), and the Ward method (of connection as binding criteria for the for-
mation of groups) were used. A program written in R (version 3.0.1) was used to make the 
clustering of the samples, and consequently produce the dendrogram.

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The HCA analysis which was based on the five parameters [(i) number of visible bands and 
(ii) associated wavelength, (iii) absorption value at the wavelengths in (ii) and (iv) the values 
of the 1st derivative for the wavelength maxima and (v) the presence/absence of fluores-
cence in the investigated samples] lead to the association in 3-5 different groups (subdivid-
ed in other subcategories). With regard to the fluorescence (an additional parameter for the 
construction of dendrograms), the samples were excited in the visible region between 485 
and 610 nm and the presence or absence of luminescence was observed with the naked 
eye through a spectral video comparator (foster + freeman®, VSC5000).

Results and discussion

Characterisation of the writing ink instruments
All inks in study were collected on paper and attached to a characterisation sheet contain-
ing: (i) a photograph of the manual writing instrument (pen) from which the ink was taken; 
(ii) an image of the morphology of the deposited ink on the paper sheet corresponding to 
one of the areas selected for analysis, magnified 200×; and (iii) the absorption spectra con-
sisting of five measurements performed for each sample, was obtained. To illustrate this, an 
example for ballpoint pens and liquid ink pens (rollerball and gel pens) is given in Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1 — Physical 
(ink morphology) and 
spectral characteristics 
of the BB1 (upper, left), 
BK1 (bottom, left), LB63 
(upper, right) and LK74 
(bottom, right) samples 
in which A corresponds 
to writing instruments, 
B corresponds to 
the image of the 
morphology of the 
paint, and C corresponds 
to the absorption 
spectra of the five 
measures conducted 
for the BB1, BK1, LB63 
and LK74 samples, 
respectively.

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Database
The collection of the 167 inks led to the creation of an absorption spectra database. The dif-
ferent types of collected ink allowed the construction of libraries according to the physical 
(ink morphology) and spectral characteristics of each ink. The average spectrum, obtained 
from five spectra for each of those inks, was added to the appropriate library. This procedure 
leads to the creation of eight libraries, including: Ballpoint pen blue ink — code BBn, Ballpoint 
pen black ink — code BKn, Liquid (rollerball/gel) pen blue ink — code LBn, Liquid (rollerball/gel) 
pen black ink — code LKn, Felt-tipped pen blue ink — code FBn, Felt-tipped pen black ink — 
code FKn, Fountain pen blue ink — code FOBn and Fountain pen black ink — code FOKn.

To further validate the generated database libraries, i.e. if they are functional, a preliminary 
test with 22 blind samples (knowing that 14 were already entered in the database and the 
remaining eight were not) taken on white printing paper (80 g/m2, A4, Inacopia office®) was 
made. This set of samples is composed of writing instruments inks of blue (9) and black (13) 
colour. In order to have the preliminary test as close as possible to a practical case, it was 
initially assumed that all samples were unknown (considered blind samples). With the aid of 
optical microscopy (e.g. magnifying lens), a pre-selection of the type of ink present on each 
sample was made, thus facilitating the choice of the most appropriate library. Out of the 22 
samples, 13 have been correctly identified. The remaining nine were totally unknown and 
have been added to the generated libraries after analyses. Table 3.1 summarises the results 
for the 22 blind samples.

For the matching process the following parameters were used: Minimum Quality (80); Com-
paring Algorithm (Squared Difference) and Normalise Each Search Range. Below are two 
examples to demonstrate the results obtained for the blind samples using the matching 
process of the paronama 3 software program.

Figure 3.2 — Results for correspondence of BS2 sample with the data entered in the library.

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Table 3.1 
Obtained result for the match of 22 blind samples (marked with blue and grey colours are blind 
samples of blue and black colours, respectively) 

For instance, Blind Sample 2 (BS2) shows a 1st match value of 97.35 (out in 100) with the 
black  ballpoint  pen  brand  Pelikan  (BK73).  This  ink  was  correctly  identified.  The  2nd  and 
3rd match have little spectra differences and shows a good match result, close to the first 
match (Figure 3.2). Noteworthy is the fact that 1st, 2nd and 3rd matches show little spectral 
differences between them. The spectrum in red represents the data that is entered in the 
library while the blue spectrum is the sample under analysis.

199

  
Figure 3.3 — 
Results for the 
correspondence of BS3 
sample with the data 
added into the library

With the results of Blind Sample 3 (BS3) we observe that the value of the 1st match was 
99.44 for a blue ballpoint pen Pentel brand (BB21). This sample was correctly identified too 
but in this case, the second and third match spectra exhibit accentuated differences which 
resulted in values of match significantly lower than the first one (Figure 3.3). Noteworthy is 
the fact that 1st, 2nd and 3rd matches show significant spectral differences between them. 
The spectrum in red represents the data that is entered in the library while the blue spec-
trum is the sample under analysis.

Blind Sample 7 (BS7) was correctly identified only on the 3rd match (BIC-BK1). This result can 
be explained by the high similarities in the formulation of constituent inks of samples BK151 
(Waterman brand) and BK5 (BIC brand).

With the 22 blind samples, it was possible to obtain a correct functional match for 13 of the 
samples: 8 blue and 5 black.

Due  to  the  large  number  of  samples  analysed  and  knowing  that  some  of  these  exhibit 
similar  spectral  characteristics  from  each  other,  there  was  a  need  for  clustering,  to  ease 
its characterisation and consequently its identification. In order to achieve this, two types 
of procedures were considered. One procedure can be considered more indicative (with 
a high degree of subjectivity) and the other more analytic (which can be considered more 
objective).

The first was based on the observation of the spectra comparison and is based upon the 
1st derivative, i.e. these values are used to group samples. The 1st derivative allows us to 
observe the maximum and the minimum of the spectra and thus to facilitate the grouping. 

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This process is considered to have a high dose of subjectivity because it strongly depends 
on the observer and its degree of subjectivity. The second process should be considered 
more objective because it uses a multivariate analysis: hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). 
This method allows testing how a set of elements relates to each other, and how they are 
similar according to the variables used.

Data clustering using 1st derivative
To group the samples analysed, the 1st derivative was calculated from the plots resulting 
from the average five measurements made for each sample. Comparisons between graph-
ics overlays and the 1st derivative were obtained in order to form groups of the samples 
analysed.  In  Figure  3.4  an  example  of  two  groups  is  given:  a  blue  (BBn)  and  black  (BKn) 
ballpoint pens.

Figure 3.4 — From left to right. Absorption spectra corresponding to the average of five 
measurements performed with each of the samples BB41, BB47, BB54, BB121 and BB136 (A) and 
respective graphics of the 1st derivative (B). Absorption spectra corresponding to the average 
of five measures performed to samples BB41, BB47, BB54, BB121 and BB136 (C) and respective 
graphics of the 1st derivative (D).

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In general, certain groups could be created using the graphic overlay of the 1st derivative 
of the samples. In Table 3.2 the number of generated groups and respective number of 
samples per group is summarised.

The association into these types of groups (solely based on the overlapping of the graphs 
of  the  1st derivative)  reveals  that  microspectrophotometry  may  be  considered  an  excel-
lent non-destructive technique for ink differentiation. The problem is that when there are 
a large number of samples to analyse, this grouping becomes insufficient, making this type 
of analysis impractical, since this is done manually. Therefore, it is necessary to use another 
type of analysis in order to be able to associate all the samples analysed in groups. To do 
this, we have used the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA).

Table 3.2 
Number of groups formed using the superposition of the graphics 1st derivative, 
taking into account the number of available samples for each type of ink

Writing instruments

Groups

Samples Number of samples per group (G1 to G26)

Ballpoint 
pens

Blue ink

Black ink

26

26

Rollerball and gel blue ink

12

Rollerball and gel black ink

Liquid 
ink pens

Felt blue ink

Felt black ink

Fountain blue ink

Fountain black ink

5

5

4

2

7

56

55

17

17

5

5

2

10

2, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 4, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 5, 2, 
1, 2, 1, 1,1

13, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 
1, 1, 1, 1,1

5, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

13, 1, 1, 1, 1

1, 1, 1, 1, 1

1, 2, 1, 1

1, 1

2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1,1

Data clustering using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)
The formation of groups using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was already explained. For 
each set of data (BBn, BKn, LBn, LKn, FBn, FKn, FOKn) there is a dendrogram in which each 
object is represented by the sample code. As an example, for the blue ballpoint pens, the 
following brands were grouped in the following three groups (Figure 3.5).

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Figure 3.5 — Dendrogram constructed by hierarchical clustering (Ward binding method) on 
the data set of 56 samples ballpoint pen ink of blue colour (BBn) (1). Different colours are used to 
represent the groups formed according to their similarities. Each formed group is represented by 
two sub-groups (i) and (ii).

According  to  the  dendrogram  shown  in  Figure  3.5,  for  the  ballpoint  pens  of  blue  (BBn) 
there are three major groups: Group I (blue): Molin, Pelikan, RTC, Paper Mate, ‘White label’, 
Uni Mitsubishi Pencil, Pentel, A.G.SPALDING BROS and BIC. Group II (green): WATERMAN, BIC, 
‘White label’, ACVILA; BIC and Office Cover. Group III (red): Corvina, ‘White label’, Lecce Pen, 
STABILO, LINC, Reynolds, Pentel and RTC.

For black ballpoint pens there are also three major groups: Group I (PARKER, RTC, BROS AG-
SPALDING, Pentel, Mitsubishi Pencil Uni, Paper Mate, ‘White label’ BIC Epene, and Pelikan); 
Group II (Fisher Space Pen, PLUS B-2, Pelikan, BIC, Epene, Paper Mate, ‘White label’ Rotring, 
Office Cover, WATERMAN, Pentel, Fegol); Group III (MONTE LEMA, Pelikan, AURORA, Unix, 
mab, ‘White label’ Uni Mitsubishi Pencil, BIC, Q-CONNECT).

(1)  There are cases in which the same brand appears in different groups (examples: RTC, Pentel, Bic, ‘White 

label’); this is because the analyses were made with different models for each brand.

203

  
Blue rollerball and gel pens have five major groups: Group I (‘White label’, BIC, Paper Mate 
and Uni Mitsubishi Pencil); Group II (‘White label’); Group III (PARKER, PILOT and ‘White label’); 
Group IV (‘White label’); Group V (Pentel). For black rollerball and gel pens have four major 
groups: Group I (PARKER); Group II (Uni Mitsubishi Pencil); Group III (‘White label’, BIC, Uni Mit-
subishi Pencil, Pentel); Group IV (‘White label’, Uni Mitsubishi Pencil, PILOT, ZEBRA, STAEDTLER).

Blue felt-tip pens have two major groups: Group I (‘White label’, ergo marker, Paper Mate); 
Group II (Paper Mate, BIC). For black felt-tip pens exists two major groups: Group I (‘White 
label’, Rotring); Group II (‘White label’, Paper Mate).

Black colours fountain pens have four major groups: Group I (Pelikan, LAMY, MONT BLANC); 
Group II (HERO); Group III (AURORA, CROSS, WATERMAN, PARKER); Group IV (Pelikan). The 
two blue Fountain pen (Hero and Pelikan brand) were not submitted to HCA analysis.

In Table 3.3 the number of generated groups/subgroups, and respective number of sam-
ples per group/subgroup is summarised.

Table 3.3 
Number of groups formed using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), taking into account the number 
of available samples for each type of ink

Writing instruments

Groups

Samples

Number of samples per subgroup (Sb)

Ballpoint pens

Blue ink

Black ink

3

3

5

4

2

2

Rollerball and gel 
blue ink

Rollerball and gel 
black ink

Felt blue ink

Felt black ink

Fountain black ink

4

56

55

17

17

5

5

10

G1:SbI:16 + SbII:4
G2:SbI:7 + SbII:10
G3:SbI:5 + SbII:14

G1:SbI:7 + SbII:13
G2:SbI:7 + SbII:17
G3:SbI:4 + SbII:7

G1:SbI:3 + SbII:6
G2:SbI:2
G3:SbI:2 + SbII:1
G4:SbI:2
G5:SbI:1

G1:SbI:1
G2:SbI:1
G3:SbI:4 + SbII:5
G4:SbI:5 + SbII:1

G1:SbI:2 + SbII:1
G2:SbI:2

G1:SbI:2
G2:SbI:2 + SbII:1

G1:SbI:3 + SbII:1
G2:SbI:1
G3:SbI:4
G4:SbI:1

Liquid ink pens

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The  HCA  data  analysis  suggests  that  for  the  blue  ballpoint  pens,  black  rollerball  and  gel 
pens, black and blue felt tip pens and fountain pens, there is no brand with more than one 
model found in the same group. In the black ballpoint pens, the mab brand appears in the 
same group and sub-group, and the same happens with the blue rollerball and gel pens 
from the Uni Mitsubishi Pencil brand.

Discriminating power
The analysed ink samples were grouped in two different ways by visual comparison through 
the superimposition of the absorption spectra and their respective first derivatives and by 
the application of a hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) statistical method. In order to evaluate 
the discriminating power of microspectrophotometry, several authors used discriminating 
power (DP) according to the work developed by Smalldon and Moffat (Smalldon et al., 1973).

The discriminating power (DP) is defined as the ‘probability that two distinct samples se-
lected at random from the parent population would be discriminated in at least one at-
tribute if the series of attributes were determined’ and is calculated using the formula DP 
= 1 – [(Number of discriminated pairs)/(Number of possible sample pairs)] (Smalldon et al., 
1973). The number of possible pairs is calculated using the formula [n (n-1)]/2, where n is 
the total number of samples. For example, in the qualitative analysis of blue ballpoint inks 
we have [56 (56-1)]/2 = 1 540 possible pairs of compared samples. For this class of inks the 
qualitative analysis of the results obtained with this technique has a power of discrimination 
of 72 %. Table 3.4 shows the DP values obtained for the classes of inks studied.

Table 3.4 
Discriminating powers (DP) of qualitative analysis

Writing instruments

Ballpoint pens

Liquid ink pens

Blue ink

Black ink

Rollerball and gel blue ink

Rollerball and gel black ink

Felt blue ink

Felt black ink

Fountain blue ink

Fountain black ink

DP (qualitative analysis)

0.72

0.73

0.93

0.51

1

1

1

0.93

Considering the high number of inks under study, the values obtained for DP are high and 
demonstrate once again the good differentiation ability of microspectrophotometry in re-
flectance mode, thus allowing a non-destructive analysis of the documents being studied.

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Totty et al., 1985, obtained a DP of 0.86 for black inks and 0.84 for a total of 16 blue inks. 
These inks were taken from porous tip pens and spectras were obtained in transmission 
mode in the visible region. Roux, et al., 1999, obtained DP of 0.83 to both 49 blue and 42 
black  ballpoint  pen  inks  with  the  Olympus  microspectrophotometer  in  reflection  mode. 
More recently, Causin, V. et al., 2008, obtained a DP value of 0.96 for the 21 black ballpoint 
pen inks and 0.79 for the 12 blue ones. In this study, the spectra were obtained in the trans-
mission mode in the UV-VIS region. The microspectrophotometry system used in our study 
and the differentiation of spectra in a visual form allows the obtaining of a good DP, howev-
er the different modes of acquisition and different types of pens used in the previous stud-
ies do not allow a linear comparison for all class of inks. The final result of the differentiation 
using this statistical method should always be obtained based on the last subgroups (and 
not the first ones); however this result should always be validated by the forensic expert.

Conclusions

The identification and dating of writing inks remain a major challenge in the forensic exami-
nation of questionable documents. Given the need to increasingly provide relevant informa-
tion to our justice system, we explore and develop techniques and methodologies to gener-
ate forensic intelligence. Microspectrophotometry is undoubtedly a very effective technique 
to  differentiate  inks.  This  study  demonstrated  a  wide  applicability  in  terms  of  ink  writing 
instruments and its high discrimination power for the different type of inks in analysis.

The  167  analysed  ink  samples  were  grouped  into  87  distinct  groups  by  overlapping  the 
spectra of the 1st derivative and 37 groups using a hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA). 
Despite the HCA analysis showing a smaller number of groups, this type of chemometric 
method provides us with a sophisticated and efficient approach to differentiate ink samples 
essential when we have a large number of samples to compare.

The creation of the database constitutes a way to provide a list of inks with the same spec-
tral characteristics as the analysed sample, however these groups show that different ink 
brands  have  similar  spectral  characteristics.  This  is  an  ongoing  work,  whose  subsequent 
steps will (i) increase the number of samples analysed, (ii) analyse through HPLC and HPTLC 
all the inks to establish a more powerful database, (iii) add other variables to HCA method, 
(iv) another chemometric algorithms.

Acknowledgments

JSSM thanks the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal) and FEDER-COMPETE for fi-
nancial support through the Coimbra Chemistry Centre (project PEst-OE/QUI/UI0313/2014). 
Dr. Catherine de Castro, Msc Tânia Cova and Prof. Alberto Canelas Pais are kindly acknowl-
edged for the support with the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA).

206

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Writing instruments inks: microspectrophotometry forensic analysis and characterisation

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207

  
Announcement

CEPOL 2017 Research and Science Conference
INNOVATIONS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT —  
Implications for practice, education 
and civil society

Date: 28-30 November 2017

Venue: National University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary

CALL FOR PRESENTATIONS

The guiding theme for the 14th edition of the CEPOL Research and Science Conference in 
2017 is ‘Innovation’.

If the term ‘innovation’ basically implies that something is changed, done in a new way, 
a  new  idea,  method  or  piece  of  equipment  being  applied,  then  modern  life  is  for  sure 
a testimony for a constant and self-accelerating stream of transformations of how things 
are done. Inventions and innovations are the main drivers of the process of modernisation, 
which barely a society or an individual on the globe can manage to escape from.

However,  it  is  far  from  being  good  news  only  —  crime  is  innovative  as  well: 
Fresh ideas, methods or devices are used for breaking formal as well as informal rules, regu-
lations and laws and can cause harm to others. In turn, police forces and other law enforce-
ment  agencies  are  under  unremitting  pressure  to  innovate,  in  order  not  to  just  keep  up 
with innovative criminal activities, but also to improve the organisational efficiency as well 
as meeting both political and public expectations.

In a similar fashion as major technological inventions and innovations have shaped the way 
we  live,  work,  move  or  communicate  in  general  (cars,  computers,  satellites,  the  internet, 
mobile  and  smart  phones  —  to  name  a  few),  they  have  moulded  or  even  transformed 
the practices, patterns and capabilities of police and other law enforcement bodies (inter-

209

national  exchange  of  data,  DNA-analysis,  international  video-surveillance  as  high  impact 
examples). However, inventions and innovations are not just a matter of developing tech-
nology — new ways in organising, training, education and research are equally as relevant.

As before, the CEPOL 2017 Research and Science Conference will convene practitioners in 
policing and other areas of law enforcement, trainers, educators and scientific scholars from 
Europe and the international sphere.

The  topical  focus  of  this  year’s  event  is  on  innovations  in  law  enforcement,  examined 
through the lens of scientific research and academic study and looking at the implications 
from three different angles:

 § from the point of view of the police or law enforcement officers;

 § from the point of view of the teachers, trainers, educators in the law enforcement educa-

tion systems;

 § from the point of the citizens, who will be subject to and beneficiaries of innovative law 

enforcement practices.

The conference organisers invite presentations, preferably based on recent empirical re-
search or academic study, addressing the following areas and lead questions:

1.  Which are the emerging innovations in society that are prompting a response from the 
law enforcement community, both in terms of adapting strategies and tactics, as well as 
the law enforcement educational requirements?

2.  What are the expectable implications, benefits, risks or potential ramifications of intro-
ducing  certain  new  technologies  (gadgets  or  systems),  organisational  or  operational 
concepts for doing law enforcement work in a new, innovative manner? Is it different for 
innovations that are driven or imposed by the outside environment as opposed to those 
that  are  emerging  from  ‘inside’?  Where  and  when  have  law  enforcement  innovations 
failed and what lessons have been learned so far?

3.  Which educational innovations will have significant impact on the training and educa-
tion of law enforcement officials on the various levels of the organisations — and why?

4.  Some innovations in law enforcement are received with great sympathy and endorse-
ment,  some  with  lesser  enthusiasm  by  members  of  the  civil  society.  What  has  to  be 
taken into account in the management of the innovation process so a particular innova-
tion is not perceived as ineffective, undue, unfair or even illegal? Are there innovative 
ways to manage a confrontation between the innovators and the preservers?

210

European Police Science and Research Bulletin · Issue 16 · Summer 2017Announcement

The two and a half day conference that will take place in Budapest will build on its prov-
en format focusing on professional information exchange and facilitation of networking. 
Keynote, plenary, parallel and open paper sessions will provide ample opportunities to dis-
cuss the role of innovation in law enforcement practice, training and education and its likely 
impact on security and the feeling of security within the European societies.

Presentations  are  invited  for  the  main  and  open  paper  track  of  the  programme  and  full 
papers are planned to be published in a Special Conference Edition of the European Police 
Science and Research Bulletin afterwards.

Proposals for presentation are to be submitted online via the conference webpage 
at where you will find information about participation and logistics in due time.

https://www.cepol.europa.eu/science-research/conferences

Deadline for paper submissions: 25 August 2017

Submitted  papers  will  be  evaluated  by  the  organisational  committee  and  information 
about acceptance will be issued by 15 September at the latest. For presenters of accepted 
papers conference fee (including buffet lunch and coffee breaks) will be waived.

Any general inquiry about the conference shall be sent only to this address:

conference2017@cepol.europa.eu

We are looking forward to welcome you at the 2017 CEPOL Conference in Budapest!

211

  
EUROPEAN  
POLICE SCIENCE AND  
RESEARCH BULLETIN
ISSUE 16
SUMMER 2017

Serious and Organised Crime in the EU
Eleonora Forte, Tamara Schotte, Sascha Strupp

The ePOOLICE Project: Environmental scanning 
against organised crime 
Raquel Pastor, José María Blanco

From the Islamic State to the ‘Islamic State of Mind’
Arije Antinori

Macro trends in the smuggling of migrants into 
Europe
Paolo Campana

What about AI in criminal intelligence?  
Patrick Perrot

Pathways to Understanding Community-Oriented 
Policing in Post-Conflict Societies 
Jaishankar Ganapathy, Tor Damkaas

Considering adult-learning and problem-solving 
methodologies for police training 
Kenneth Murphy

The application of strategic principles to criminal 
investigations 
Michele Frisia

Addressing emotions in Police selection and initial 
training
Rui Coelho de Moura, Nelson Campos Ramalho

Crowdsourcing and policing 
Antonio Vera, Torsten Oliver Salge

Planning and policing of public demonstrations
Luis Manuel André Elias, Sérgio Felgueiras, Lúcia G. Pais

Between the Military and the Police
Nuno Miguel Parreira da Silva

Writing instruments inks: Microspectrophotometry 
forensic analysis and characterisation 
Ana Cristina de Almeida Assis, Filipa Isabel Romano 
Inácio, João Sérgio Seixas de Melo, Carlos Farinha

CEPOL — EDUCATE, INNOVATE, MOTIVATE 
European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Training
Offices: H-1066 Budapest, Ó utca 27., Hungary  
Correspondence: H-1903 Budapest, Pf. 314, Hungary
Telephone: +36 1 803 8030 • Fax: +36 1 803 8032 
E-mail: info@cepol.europa.eu • www.cepol.europa.eu