White paper on the future of Europe : reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025.
Date: 2017-04-26
Institutions: Directorate-General for Communication
Subjects: EU Member State, EU activity, EU policy, European Union, European integration, European treaties, economic situation, international cooperation, international security, political situation, single market, the EU's international role

WHITE PAPER ON THE 
FUTURE OF EUROPE

Reflections and scenarios 
for the EU27 by 2025

2

European Commission
COM(2017)2025 of 1 March 2017

Rue de la Loi / Wetstraat, 200
1040 Bruxelles/Brussels
+32 2 299 11 11

32

Foreword

On 25 March 2017, 27 leaders of the European Union’s 
Member States will stand united in peace and friendship 
in Rome.

That alone is an achievement that many would have 
thought unthinkable when the six founding Member 
States agreed on the Treaties of Rome 60 years ago.

As we mark this anniversary, our thoughts are with 
those before us whose dream for Europe has become 
a reality. Now is the time to reflect with pride on our 
achievements and to remind ourselves of the values 
that bind us together.

But Rome must also be the start of a new chapter. There 
are important challenges ahead of us, for our security, 
for the well-being of our people, for the role that Europe 
will need to play in an increasingly multipolar world. 
A united Europe at 27 needs to shape its own destiny 
and carve out a vision for its own future.

This White Paper is the European Commission’s 
contribution to this new chapter of the European project. 
We want to launch a process in which Europe determines 
its own path. We want to map out the challenges and 
opportunities ahead of us and present how we can 
collectively choose to respond.

After a broad debate across our continent in the months 
to come, including the European Parliament, national 
Parliaments, local and regional authorities, and civil 
society at large, I will take these ideas forward and give 
my personal views on the future of Europe in my State 
of the Union speech in September 2017. 

© European Union

This should help the European Council draw first 
conclusions by the end of the year and decide on 
a course of action to be rolled out in time for the 
European Parliament elections in June 2019.

As we decide which way to go, we should remember 
that Europe has always been at its best when we are 
united, bold and confident that we can shape our future 
together.

The European Union has changed our lives for the better. 
We must ensure it keeps doing so for all of those that 
will follow us.

Jean-Claude Juncker
1 March 2017

33

‘Europe will not be made all at once, or 
according to a single plan. It will be built 
through concrete achievements which first 
create a de facto solidarity.’

Robert Schuman
9 May 1950

4

Contents

FOREWORD BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

1. INTRODUCTION 

2. THE DRIVERS OF EUROPE’S FUTURE 

3. FIVE SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE BY 2025 

SCENARIO 1: CARRYING ON 

SCENARIO 2: NOTHING BUT THE SINGLE MARKET 

SCENARIO 3: THOSE WHO WANT MORE DO MORE 

SCENARIO 4: DOING LESS MORE EFFICIENTLY 

SCENARIO 5: DOING MUCH MORE TOGETHER  

4. THE WAY AHEAD 

5. ANNEXES 

THE WHITE PAPER PROCESS:  

THE FIVE SCENARIOS: POLICY OVERVIEW 

3

6

8

15

16

18

20

22

24

26

27

28

29

5

 
 
1. Introduction

For generations, Europe was always the future.

It took off with the vision of Altiero Spinelli and Ernesto 
Rossi, political prisoners locked up by a fascist regime 
on the isle of Ventotene during the Second World War. 
Their manifesto For a Free and United Europe painted a 
picture of a place in which allies and adversaries would 
come together to ensure that the “old absurdities” of 
Europe would never return.

Ventotene Manifesto

© European University Institute

Sixty years ago, inspired by that dream of a peaceful, 
shared future, the EU’s founding members embarked on 
a unique and ambitious journey of European integration. 
They agreed to settle their conflicts around a table rather 
than in battlefields. They replaced the use of armed 
forces by the force of law. They opened up the path for 
other countries to join, reuniting Europe and making us 
stronger.

As a result, our troubled past has given way to a peace 
spanning seven decades and to an enlarged Union of 500 
million citizens living in freedom in one of the world’s 
most prosperous economies. The images of battles in 
trenches and fields in Verdun, or of a continent separated 
by the Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall, have been 
replaced by a Union standing out as a beacon of peace 
and stability.

The sacrifice of previous generations should never be 
forgotten. Human dignity, freedom and democracy 
were hard-earned and can never be relinquished. Even 
if the attachment to peace is not one that all of today’s 
Europeans can relate to in the same way as their parents 
or grandparents, these core values continue to bind us 
together.

6

The EU is now the place where Europeans can enjoy 
a unique diversity of culture, ideas and traditions in 
a Union covering four million square kilometres. It 
is where they have forged life-long bonds with other 
Europeans and can travel, study and work across national 
borders without changing currency. It is where the rule 
of law has replaced the rule of the iron fist. It is where 
equality is not just spoken about but continues to be 
fought for.

Despite this, many Europeans consider the Union as 
either too distant or too interfering in their day-to-day 
lives. Others question its added-value and ask how 
Europe improves their standard of living. And for 
too many, the EU fell short of their expectations as it 
struggled with its worst financial, economic and social 
crisis in post-war history.

Europe’s challenges show no sign of abating. Our 
economy is recovering from the global financial crisis 
but this is still not felt evenly enough. Parts of our 
neighbourhood are destabilised, resulting in the largest 
refugee crisis since the Second World War. Terrorist 
attacks have struck at the heart of our cities. New global 
powers are emerging as old ones face new realities. And 
last year, one of our Member States voted to leave the 
Union.

The current situation need not necessarily be limiting 
for Europe’s future. The Union has often been built on 
the back of crises and false starts. From the European 
Defence Community that never got off the ground in 
the 1950s, to the exchange rate shocks of the 1970s, 
through to aborted accessions and rejections in 
referenda in recent decades, Europe has always been at a 
crossroads and has always adapted and evolved.

Source: European Commission

 
In the last 25 years alone, the Treaties of Maastricht, 
Amsterdam and Nice have profoundly reformed and 
transformed a Union that has more than doubled in 
size. The Lisbon Treaty, and the decade-long debate 
that preceded it, has opened a new chapter of European 
integration that still holds unfulfilled potential.

Like generations before us, our response to the task 
ahead cannot be nostalgic or short-term. It should be 
built on a common perspective,  and on the shared 
conviction that by coming together, each of us will be 
better off.

As 27 EU Heads of State or Government meet in Rome 
to mark the 60th anniversary of our common project, we 
must once again look forward.

This White Paper maps out the drivers of change in 
the next decade and presents a range of scenarios for 
how Europe could evolve by 2025. In doing so, it starts 
a debate that should help focus minds and find new 
answers to an old question:

What future do we want for ourselves, for our children 
and for our Union?

Europe today

European Union

Euro area

Schengen Area

Council 
of Europe

Austria

Belgium

Estonia

Finland

Czech Republic

Liechtenstein

Switzerland

Armenia

France

Germany

Greece

Italy

Denmark

Norway

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Hungary

Iceland

European 
Free Trade 
Association

Netherlands

Portugal

Slovakia

Slovenia

Poland

Spain

Sweden

Cyprus

Ireland

Bulgaria

Croatia

Romania

a
e
r
A
c
i
m
o
n
o
c
E

n
a
e
p
o
r
u
E

European 
Customs 
Union 

Andorra

Monaco

San Marino

Turkey

United Kingdom

Source: European Commission

7

Azerbaijan

Bosnia and 
Herzegovina

Georgia

FYROM

Russia

Moldova

Serbia

Montenegro

Albania

Ukraine

NATO

Canada

United States

 
 
2. The drivers of Europe’s future

A CHANGING PLACE IN AN EVOLVING WORLD

Europe is home to the world’s largest single market 
and second most used currency. It is the largest trade 
power and development and humanitarian aid donor. 
Thanks in part to Horizon 2020, the world’s biggest 
multinational research programme, Europe is at 
the cutting edge of innovation. Its diplomacy holds 
real weight and helps keep the world safer and more 
sustainable, as shown by the historic deal with Iran on 
its nuclear programme or the leading role the EU played 
in the Paris Climate Agreement and the adoption by 
the United Nations of the Sustainable Development 
Goals for 2030. This influence is reinforced by our close 
cooperation with NATO and our active role in the 
Council of Europe.

The rapidly rising influence of emerging economies 
accentuates the need for Europe to speak with one voice 
and to act with the collective weight of its individual 
parts.

Europe’s share of global GDP is shrinking

United States of America

EU27

Japan

UK

China

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

India

Rest of the world

2004

28%

26%
11%

5%
5%
2%
2%
<2%

<2%

18%

2015

24%

22%
6%

4%
15%
2%
2%

2%
3%

21%

Source: Eurostat and UN Statistical Division 

Europe is attractive to many of its partners. While no 
further accession to the EU is expected in the short 
term, the prospect itself is a powerful tool to project 
stability and security along our borders. The EU works 
actively with its neighbourhood whether it be in the 
east or in the south. From our strengthened partnership 
with Ukraine to the wide-ranging cooperation with our 
African partners, Europe’s role as a positive global force 
is more important than ever.

Europe represents a falling share of the world population 

The euro is now a global currency but other players are 
gaining weight

2015

£ 

¥ 

12%

7%

€ 

33%

2017

¥

11%

€ 

30%

¥ 

£ 

8%

8%

1900

1960

2015

2060

25%

11%

6%

4%

48%

43%

$ 

$ 

Note: The charts show the recent change in the basket of currencies 
used as reference by the International Monetary Fund, its so-called 
“Special Drawing Rights”

Source: International Monetary Fund, figures are for 30/11/2015 and 
24/02/2017 respectively

Source: UN Statistical Division and Eurostat, EU27

However, that status belies a simple reality: Europe’s 
place in the world is shrinking, as other parts of the 
world grow. In 1900, Europe accounted for around 25% 
of global population. By 2060, it will account for less 
than 5%. No single Member State will have more than 
1% of the world population by then.

Europe’s relative economic power is also forecast 
to wane, accounting for much less than 20% of the 
world’s GDP in 2030, down from around 22% today. 

The build-up of troops on our eastern borders, war and 
terrorism in the Middle East and Africa, and increasing 
militarisation around the world are vivid illustrations 
of an increasingly tense global context. The need to 
reflect on how to deter, respond and protect against 
threats, ranging from large-scale cyber-attacks to more 
traditional forms of aggression, has never been so 
critical. NATO will continue to provide hard security 
for most EU countries but Europe cannot be naïve and 
has to take care of its own security. Being a “soft power” 
is no longer powerful enough when force can prevail 
over rules.

8

While the world has never been smaller or better 
connected, the return of isolationism has cast 
doubts over the future of international trade and 
multilateralism. Europe’s prosperity and ability to 
uphold our values on the world stage will continue  
to depend on its openness and strong links with its 
partners. Yet, standing up for free and progressive trade 
and shaping globalisation so it benefits all 
will be a growing challenge.

Defence expenditure is expected to double for most 
major defence spenders by 2045 (in billion USD)

2012

2045

United States of America

682

1335

China

251

India

117

Russia

113

United Kingdom

France

Japan
Germany

Brazil

58

51

46
46

35

1270

654

295

108

87

67
63

97

Source: Report by UK Ministry of Defence: Strategic Trends Programme: 
Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045

The EU is the biggest donor of development and human-
itarian aid (% of total aid and in billion USD)

56%

24%

74 billion USD 

32 billion USD 

7% 3%

7%
OTHERS

3%

Source: OECD, 2015, EU = EU and its Member States

A PROFOUNDLY TRANSFORMED ECONOMY AND 
SOCIETY

The global financial and economic crisis that started 
in 2008 in the United States shook Europe to its core. 
Thanks to determined action, the EU economy is now 
back on a more stable footing with unemployment 
falling to its lowest level since the “great recession” hit. 
However, the recovery is still unevenly distributed across 
society and regions. Addressing the legacy of the crisis, 
from long-term unemployment to high levels of public 
and private debt in many parts of Europe, remains an 
urgent priority.

The challenge is particularly acute for the younger 
generation. For the first time since the Second World 
War, there is a real risk that the generation of today’s 
young adults ends up less well-off than their parents. 
Europe cannot afford to lose the most educated age 
group it has ever had and let generational inequality 
condemn its future.

Unemployment levels falling but still high in EU28

25

20

15

10

5

Less than 25 years

Total

18.6

8.2

4
0
0
2

5
0
0
2

6
0
0
2

7
0
0
2

8
0
0
2

9
0
0
2

0
1
0
2

1
1
0
2

2
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

6
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

Source: European Commission

These developments have fuelled doubts about the EU’s 
social market economy and its ability to deliver on its 
promise to leave no one behind and to ensure that every 
generation is better off than the previous one. This has 
been particularly felt within the euro area, highlighting 
the need to complete the Economic and Monetary 
Union and strengthen the convergence of economic and 
social performances. Making Europe’s economy more 
inclusive, competitive, resilient and future-proof will be 
no less demanding in the years ahead.

9

Europe is ageing fast and life expectancy is reaching 
unprecedented levels. With a median age of 45, Europe 
will be the “oldest” region in the world by 2030. New 
family structures, a changing population, urbanisation 
and more diverse working lives are affecting the way 
social cohesion is built. In the space of a generation, 
the average European worker has gone from having 
a job for life to having more than ten in a career. 
There are more women in work than ever before but 
achieving real gender equality will mean breaking down 
persisting barriers. At a time when Europe’s working 
age population is shrinking, it needs to mobilise the full 
potential of its talents.

Europeans will be the oldest in the world by 2030  
(median age by regions of the world)

45
Europe

21
Africa

35
Asia

35
Oceania

40
North 
America

34
Latin America 
& Caribbean

33
World

Source: Rand Europe

Europe already has the world’s most advanced systems 
of welfare State that can provide solutions to societal 
challenges around the world. Its scientific community 
is at the vanguard of global research to tackle health 
challenges, such as for the treatment of Alzheimer’s 

Europe is home to the most equal societies in the world

disease. Social protection systems will nevertheless need 
to be significantly modernised to remain affordable 
and to keep pace with new demographic and work-life 
realities.

This is doubly important as Europe gets to grips with a 
profound digitisation of society which is already blurring 
the lines between workers and self-employed, goods and 
services, or consumers and producers. Many of today’s 
jobs did not exist a decade ago. Many more will emerge 
in the years ahead. It is likely that most children entering 
primary school today will end up working in new job 
types that do not yet exist. The challenges of increased 
use of technology and automation will affect all jobs and 
industries. Making the most of the new opportunities 
whilst mitigating any negative impact will require a 
massive investment in skills and a major rethink of 
education and lifelong learning systems. It will also call 
for the roll-out of new social rights to accompany 
the changing world of work.

At the same time, Europe is committed to an ambitious 
decarbonisation of its economy and to cutting harmful 
emissions. And we will have to continue adapting to 
growing climate and environmental pressures. Our 
industry, cities and households will need to change 
the way they operate and are powered. We are already 
a leader in “smart cities”, in the efficient use of natural 
resources and in the global fight against climate change. 
Our firms hold 40% of the world’s patents for renewable 
energy technologies. One of our major challenges will 
be to bring innovative solutions to market, at home and 
abroad.

40

20

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most equal

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EU Member States

OECD Countries

Note: This graph shows the distribution of income between individuals using the Gini coefficient where 0 represents perfect equality.

Source: OECD, latest available data

10

e

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1.2 million people coming to Europe in 2015, is of a 
scale unprecedented since the Second World War. This 
has led to a contentious debate about solidarity and 
responsibility among the Member States and fuelled a 
broader questioning of the future of border management 
and free movement within Europe.

For the 1.7 million Europeans who commute to another 
Member State every day, and for the hundreds of 
millions who travel across Europe for family, tourism 
or business reasons every year, borders are a thing of the 
past. Yet, for the first time since walls were torn down a 
generation ago, the recent crises have led to temporary 
controls being reintroduced at certain borders within 
Europe.

HEIGHTENED THREATS AND CONCERNS ABOUT 
SECURITY AND BORDERS

Europe is a remarkably free and stable place for its 
citizens in a world still full of discord and division. Of 
the 25 countries listed as the most peaceful in the world, 
15 are from the EU. 

However, the chilling effect of recent terrorist attacks 
has shaken our societies. The increasingly blurred lines 
between internal and external threats are changing the 
way people think about personal safety and borders. 
Paradoxically, this comes at a time when moving around 
the world for work and leisure is easier and more 
common than ever before.

The pressures driving migration will also multiply and 
flows will come from different parts of the world as the 
effects of population growth, widespread tensions and 
climate change take hold. The refugee crisis, which saw 

25 years ago: celebrating the fall of the Berlin Wall 

© AP Photo/Thomas Kienzle

11

25 most peaceful countries in the world

State of Peace

Very high
High
Medium
Low
Very low
Not included

Source: Global Peace Index

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Iceland
Denmark
Austria
New Zealand
Portugal
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Canada
Japan
Slovenia
Finland
Ireland
Bhutan
Sweden
Australia
Germany
Norway
Belgium
Hungary
Singapore
Netherlands
Poland
Mauritius
Slovakia
Spain

A QUESTIONING OF TRUST AND LEGITIMACY 

The various changes affecting the world and the real 
sense of insecurity felt by many have given rise to 
a growing disaffection with mainstream politics and 
institutions at all levels. This often manifests itself 
through indifference and mistrust towards the action 
of public authorities. And it also creates a vacuum too 
easily filled by populist and nationalist rhetoric.

Blaming “Brussels” for problems while taking credit for 
success at home, the lack of ownership of joint decisions 
and the habit of finger-pointing at others have already 
proved damaging. Europeans are not immune to these 
stark images of disunity.

There is still strong support for the European project, 
but it is no longer unconditional. Over two thirds of 
Europeans see the EU as a place of stability in 

a troubled word. More than 80% support the EU’s four 
founding freedoms. 70% of euro area citizens support 
the common currency. 

However, citizens’ trust in the EU has decreased in 
line with that for national authorities. Around a third 
of citizens trust the EU today, when about half of 
Europeans did so ten years ago.

Closing the gap between promise and delivery is a 
continuous challenge. This is partly because the EU is 
not an easy construct to understand as it combines both 
the European level and Member States. Who does what 
is not well enough explained and the EU’s positive role 
in daily life is not visible if the story is not told locally. 
Communities are not always aware that their nearby 
farm, their transport network or universities are partly 
funded by the EU.

12

There is also a mismatch between expectations and the 
EU’s capacity to meet them. Take the example of youth 
unemployment: in spite of many high-level summits and 
useful EU supporting measures, the tools and powers 
remain in the hands of national, regional and local 
authorities. Resources available at European level in the 
social field account for only 0.3% of what Member States 
spend in total in that area.

Restoring trust, building consensus and creating a sense 
of belonging is harder in an era where information has 
never been so plentiful, so accessible, yet so difficult to 
grasp. The 24/7 nature of the news cycle is quicker and 

harder to keep up with and respond to than it ever has 
been before. More tweets are now sent every day than in 
a whole year ten years ago. And by 2018, around a third 
of the world’s population will use social media networks.

These trends will only accelerate and continue to 
change the way democracy works. This creates new 
opportunities to facilitate public debate and to engage 
Europeans. However, Europe and its Member States 
must move quicker to interact with citizens, be more 
accountable and deliver better and faster on what has 
been collectively agreed.

How do Europeans see the EU?

EU as a place of stability

Support for the EU four freedoms 

Support for the euro

Total ‘Agree’
Total ‘Disagree’

Don’t know

For
Against

Don’t know

For (euro area)
Against (euro area)

Don’t know

66%

29%

5%

81%

14%

5%

Source: Eurobarometer, October and November 2016, EU28

70%

25%

5%

13

1414

3. Five scenarios for Europe by 2025

Many of the profound transformations Europe is 
currently undergoing are inevitable and irreversible. 
Others are harder to predict and will come unexpectedly. 
Europe can either be carried by those events or it can 
seek to shape them. We must now decide.

The five scenarios presented in this White Paper will 
help steer a debate on the future of Europe. They offer a 
series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 
2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. 

The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 
Member States move forward together as a Union. 

The five scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke 
thinking. They are not detailed blueprints or policy 
prescriptions. Likewise, they deliberately make no 
mention of legal or institutional processes – the form 
will follow the function. 

Too often, the discussion on Europe’s future has been 
boiled down to a binary choice between more or less 
Europe. That approach is misleading and simplistic. 
The possibilities covered here range from the status 
quo, to a change of scope and priorities, to a partial or 
collective leap forward. There are many overlaps between 
each scenario and they are therefore neither mutually 
exclusive, nor exhaustive.

The final outcome will undoubtedly look different to 
the way the scenarios are presented here. The EU27 will 
decide together which combination of features from 
the five scenarios they believe will best help advance our 
project in the interest of our citizens. 

1515

Scenario 1: Carrying on

THE EUROPEAN UNION FOCUSES ON DELIVERING  
ITS POSITIVE REFORM AGENDA.

The Commission’s reform of State aid law ensures 
that 90% of all State aid measures are in the hands of 
national, regional and local authorities.

Why and how?

In a scenario where the EU27 sticks to its course, it 
focuses on implementing and upgrading its current 
reform agenda. This is done in the spirit of the 
Commission’s New Start for Europe in 2014 and of the 
Bratislava Declaration agreed by all 27 Member States 
in 2016. Priorities are regularly updated, problems are 
tackled as they arise and new legislation is rolled out 
accordingly.

As a result, the 27 Member States and the EU 
Institutions pursue a joint agenda for action. The speed 
of decision-making depends on overcoming differences 
of views in order to deliver on collective long-term 
priorities. EU legislation is checked regularly to see 
whether it is fit for purpose. Outdated legislation is 
withdrawn.

By 2025, this means:

The EU27 continues to focus on jobs, growth and 
investment by strengthening the single market and by 
stepping up investment in digital, transport and energy 
infrastructure. 

There is incremental progress on improving the 
functioning of the single currency in order to drive 
growth and prevent shocks starting at home or 
abroad. Further steps are taken to strengthen financial 
supervision, to ensure the sustainability of public 
finances and to develop capital markets to finance the 
real economy.

The fight against terrorism is stepped up in line with the 
willingness of national authorities to share intelligence. 
Defence cooperation is deepened in terms of research, 
industry and joint procurement. Member States decide 
to pool some military capabilities and to enhance 
financial solidarity for EU missions abroad.

On foreign policy, progress is made on speaking with 
one voice. The EU27 actively pursues trade agreements 
with partners from around the world, in the same way 
as it does today. Management of external borders is 
the primary responsibility of individual countries, but 
cooperation is reinforced thanks to the operational 
support of the European Border and Coast Guard. 
Continuous improvement to border management is 
needed to keep up with new challenges. If this is not 
done, some countries may wish to maintain targeted 
internal controls. 

The EU27 manages to positively shape the global agenda 
in a number of fields such as climate, financial stability 
and sustainable development.

Pros and cons:

The positive agenda of action continues to deliver 
concrete results, based on a shared sense of purpose. 
Citizens’ rights derived from EU law are upheld. The 
unity of the EU27 is preserved but may still be tested 
in the event of major disputes. Only a collective resolve 
to deliver jointly on the things that matter will help 
close the gap between promises on paper and citizens’ 
expectations.

16

Impact on policies

Single market  
& trade

Economic &  
Monetary Union

Incremental 
progress on 
improving the 
functioning of 
the euro area

Single market 
is strengthened, 
including in 
the energy 
and digital 
sectors; the 
EU27 pursues 
progressive trade 
agreements

Schengen, 
migration & 
security

Cooperation in 
the management 
of external 
borders stepped 
up gradually; 
progress towards 
a common 
asylum system; 
improved 
coordination on 
security matters

Foreign policy 
 & defence

Progress is made 
on speaking with 
one voice on 
foreign affairs; 
closer defence 
cooperation 

EU budget

Partly 
modernised to 
reflect the reform 
agenda agreed 
at 27 

Capacity to 
deliver

Positive agenda 
for action yields 
concrete results; 
decision-making 
remains complex 
to grasp; 
capacity to 
deliver does not 
always match 
expectations

Illustrative snapshots

•  Households and business are incentivised to reduce their energy consumption and produce their own clean 

energy. They can easily change providers. On average, bills become cheaper but half the sum is still paid to   
non-EU suppliers. 

• 

Europeans can use connected cars but may still face some legal and technical obstacles when crossing borders.

•  High-quality and high-speed broadband can be accessed in Europe’s town centres as well as rural areas. 

E-commerce picks up but it remains disproportionately expensive to have products delivered from another 
Member State.

• 

• 

Europeans are mostly able to travel across borders without having to stop for checks. Reinforced security 
controls mean having to arrive at airports and train stations well in advance of departure.

The EU concludes targeted and progressive trade deals with like-minded partners such as Japan, Australia,    
New Zealand, Latin America and others. The ratification process is lengthy and often delayed by discussions and 
disagreements in some national and regional Parliaments.

17

Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market

THE EUROPEAN UNION IS GRADUALLY  
RE-CENTRED ON THE SINGLE MARKET.

Why and how?

In a scenario where the EU27 cannot agree to do 
more in many policy areas, it increasingly focuses on 
deepening certain key aspects of the single market. There 
is no shared resolve to work more together in areas such 
as migration, security or defence.

As a result, the EU27 does not step up its work in most 
policy domains. Cooperation on new issues of common 
concern is often managed bilaterally. The EU27 also 
significantly reduces regulatory burden by withdrawing 
two existing pieces of legislation for every new initiative 
proposed.

By 2025, this means:

The functioning of the single market becomes the main 
“raison d’être” of the EU27. Further progress depends on 
the capacity to agree related policies and standards. This 
proves easier for the free movement of capital and of 
goods, which continues tariff-free, than it does in other 
areas. 

Given the strong focus on reducing regulation at EU 
level, differences persist or increase in areas such as 
consumer, social and environmental standards, as well 
as in taxation and in the use of public subsidies. This 
creates a risk of a “race to the bottom”. It is also difficult 
to agree new common rules on the mobility of workers 
or for the access to regulated professions. As a result, 
the free movement of workers and services is not fully 
guaranteed.

The euro facilitates trade exchanges but growing 
divergence and limited cooperation are major sources of 
vulnerability. This puts at risk the integrity of the single 
currency and its capacity to respond to a new financial 
crisis. 

There are more systematic checks of people at national 
borders due to insufficient cooperation on security and 
migration matters.

Internal disagreements on the approach to international 
trade mean the EU struggles to conclude deals with its 
partners. Migration and some foreign policy issues are 
increasingly left to bilateral cooperation. Humanitarian 
and development aid is dealt with nationally. The 
EU as a whole is no longer represented in a number 
of international fora as it fails to agree on a common 
position on issues of relevance to global partners such 
as climate change, fighting tax evasion, harnessing 
globalisation and promoting international trade.

Pros and cons:

The EU’s re-centred priorities mean that differences of 
views between Member States on new emerging issues 
often need to be solved bilaterally, on a case-by-case 
basis. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law may become 
restricted over time. Decision-making may be simpler to 
understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited. 
This may widen the gap between expectations and 
delivery at all levels.

18

Impact on policies

Single market  
& trade

Economic &  
Monetary Union

Cooperation in 
the euro area is 
limited

Single market 
for goods 
and capital 
strengthened; 
standards 
continue to differ; 
free movement 
of people and 
services not fully 
guaranteed

Schengen, 
migration & 
security

No single 
migration 
or asylum 
policy; further 
coordination on 
security dealt 
with bilaterally; 
internal border 
controls are 
more systematic

EU budget

Refocused to 
finance essential 
functions needed 
for the single 
market

Foreign policy 
 & defence

Some foreign 
policy issues are 
increasingly dealt 
with bilaterally; 
defence 
cooperation 
remains as it is 
today

Capacity to 
deliver

Decision-making 
may be easier 
to understand 
but capacity to 
act collectively is 
limited; issues of 
common concern 
often need to be 
solved bilaterally

Illustrative snapshots

•  Air quality differs greatly across Europe with some countries choosing to remove standards and regulations on 

harmful emissions. Water quality may differ along transnational rivers such as the Danube or the Rhine.

• 

Europeans are reluctant to use connected cars due to the absence of EU-wide rules and technical standards.

•  Crossing internal borders for business or tourism is made difficult due to regular checks. Finding a job abroad 
is also harder and the transfer of pension rights to another Member State is not guaranteed. Those falling ill 
abroad face expensive medical bills.

• 

The EU27 fails to conclude new trade agreements as Member States are unable to agree on common priorities 
or some block ratification.

•  Citizens in a country subject to airspace violations or large-scale cyber-attacks by a foreign power struggle to 

understand why sanctions are not agreed by the EU27 or even neighbouring countries.

• 

The renationalisation of development aid makes it harder to build comprehensive partnerships with African 
countries, limiting economic opportunities in a growing market and failing to tackle the root causes of migration.

19

Scenario 3: Those who want more do more

THE EUROPEAN UNION ALLOWS WILLING 
MEMBER STATES TO DO MORE TOGETHER IN 
SPECIFIC AREAS. 

Why and how?

In a scenario where the EU27 proceeds as today but 
where certain Member States want to do more in 
common, one or several “coalitions of the willing” 
emerge to work together in specific policy areas. These 
may cover policies such as defence, internal security, 
taxation or social matters. 

As a result, new groups of Member States agree on 
specific legal and budgetary arrangements to deepen 
their cooperation in chosen domains. As was done for 
the Schengen area or the euro, this can build on the 
shared EU27 framework and requires a clarification of 
rights and responsibilities. The status of other Member 
States is preserved, and they retain the possibility to join 
those doing more over time. 

By 2025, this means:

all information in the fight against organised crime and 
terrorism related activities. Thanks to a joint public 
prosecutor’s office, they collectively investigate fraud, 
money laundering and the trafficking of drugs and 
weapons. They decide to go further in creating 
a common justice area in civil matters.

A group of countries, including the euro area and 
possibly a few others, chooses to work much closer 
notably on taxation and social matters. Greater 
harmonisation of tax rules and rates reduces compliance 
costs and limits tax evasion. Agreed social standards 
provide certainty for business and contribute to 
improved working conditions. Industrial cooperation is 
strengthened in a number of cutting edge technologies, 
products and services, and rules on their usage are 
developed collectively.

Further progress is made at 27 to strengthen the single 
market and reinforce its four freedoms. Relations with 
third countries, including trade, remain managed 
at EU level on behalf of all Member States.

Pros and cons:

A group of Member States decides to cooperate much 
closer on defence matters, making use of the existing 
legal possibilities. This includes a strong common 
research and industrial base, joint procurement, more 
integrated capabilities and enhanced military readiness 
for joint missions abroad.

Several countries move ahead in security and justice 
matters. They decide to strengthen cooperation between 
police forces and intelligence services. They exchange 

The unity of the EU at 27 is preserved while further 
cooperation is made possible for those who want. 
Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary 
depending on whether or not they live in a country that 
has chosen to do more. Questions arise about 
the transparency and accountability of the different 
layers of decision-making. The gap between expectations 
and delivery starts to close in the countries that want and 
choose to do more.

20

Impact on policies

Single market  
& trade

Economic &  
Monetary Union

As in “Carrying 
on”, single 
market is 
strengthened 
and the EU27 
pursues 
progressive trade 
agreements

As in “Carrying 
on” except 
for a group 
of countries 
who deepen 
cooperation in 
areas such as 
taxation and 
social standards

Schengen, 
migration & 
security
As in “Carrying 
on” except 
for a group 
of countries 
who deepen 
cooperation on 
security and 
justice matters

Foreign policy 
 & defence

As in "Carrying 
on" except 
for a group 
of countries 
who deepen 
cooperation on 
defence, focusing 
on military 
coordination and 
joint equipment

EU budget

Capacity to 
deliver

As in “Carrying 
on”; additional 
budgets are 
made available 
by some Member 
States for the 
areas where 
they decide to do 
more 

As in "Carrying 
on", a positive 
agenda for action 
at 27 yields 
results; some 
groups achieve 
more together in 
certain domains; 
decision-making 
becomes more 
complex 

Illustrative snapshots

•  A group of countries establishes a corps of police officers and prosecutors to investigate cross-border criminal 
activities. Security information is immediately exchanged as databases are fully interconnected. Criminal  
evidence produced in one country is automatically recognised in the others.

•  Connected cars are widely used in the 12 Member States that have agreed to harmonise their rules and 

standards. The same Member States develop a set of rules to clarify ownership and liability issues linked to    
the Internet of Things. 

•  A group of countries works together and agree on a common “Business Law Code” unifying corporate, 

commercial and related domains of law, helping businesses of all sizes to easily operate across borders.

•  Workers in 21 Member States can access additional and increasingly similar labour rights and social protection 

regardless of their nationality or place of residence. 

•  Six countries acquire a drone for military purposes. This can be used for sea and land surveillance, as well as    
in humanitarian rescue operations. A joint defence programme is set up to protect critical infrastructure against 
cyber-attacks.

21

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently

THE EUROPEAN UNION FOCUSES ON DELIVERING 
MORE AND FASTER IN SELECTED POLICY AREAS, 
WHILE DOING LESS ELSEWHERE.

is systematic and facilitated by a common European 
Counter-terrorism Agency.

Why and how?

In a scenario where there is a consensus on the need 
to better tackle certain priorities together, the EU27 
decides to focus its attention and limited resources on a 
reduced number of areas. 

As a result, the EU27 is able to act much quicker and 
more decisively in its chosen priority areas. For these 
policies, stronger tools are given to the EU27 to directly 
implement and enforce collective decisions, as it does 
today in competition policy or for banking supervision. 
Elsewhere, the EU27 stops acting or  
does less. 

In choosing its new priorities, the EU27 seeks to better 
align promises, expectations and delivery. A typical 
example of recent mismatch is the car emissions scandal 
where the EU is widely expected to protect consumers 
from cheating manufacturers but has no powers or tools 
to do so in a direct and visible manner.

By 2025, this means:

The EU27 steps up its work in fields such as innovation, 
trade, security, migration, the management of borders 
and defence. It develops new rules and enforcement 
tools to deepen the single market in key new areas. 
It focuses on excellence in R&D and invests in new 
EU-wide projects to support decarbonisation and 
digitisation.

Typical examples include further cooperation on space, 
high-tech clusters and the completion of regional energy 
hubs. The EU27 is able to decide quickly to negotiate 
and conclude trade deals. Cooperation between police 
and judicial authorities   on terrorism-related issues 

The European Border and Coast Guard fully takes over 
the management of external borders. All asylum claims 
are processed by a single European Asylum Agency. Joint 
defence capacities are established.

Conversely, the EU27 stops acting or does less in 
domains where it is perceived as having more limited 
added value, or as being unable to deliver on promises. 
This includes areas such as regional development, public 
health, or parts of employment and social policy not 
directly related to the functioning of the single market.

State aid control is further delegated to national 
authorities. New standards for consumer protection, the 
environment and health and safety at work move away 
from detailed harmonisation towards a strict minimum. 
More flexibility is left to Member States to experiment 
in certain areas. However, for those domains regulated 
at EU level, greater enforcement powers ensure full 
compliance.

Elsewhere, steps continue to be taken to consolidate 
the euro area and ensure the stability of the common 
currency. The EU’s weight in the world changes in line 
with its recalibrated responsibilities.

Pros and cons:

Ultimately, a clearer division of responsibilities helps 
European citizens to better understand what is handled 
at EU27, national and regional level. This helps to 
close the gap between promise and delivery, even if 
expectations remain unmet in certain domains. Citizens’ 
rights derived from EU law are strengthened in areas 
where we choose to do more and reduced elsewhere. To 
start with, the EU27 has real difficulty in agreeing which 
areas it should prioritise or where it should do less.

22

Impact on policies

Single market  
& trade

Economic &  
Monetary Union

Common 
standards set to 
a minimum but 
enforcement is 
strengthened in 
areas regulated 
at EU level; trade 
exclusively dealt 
with at EU level

Several steps 
are taken to 
consolidate 
the euro area 
and ensure its 
stability; the 
EU27 does less 
in some parts of 
employment and 
social policy

Schengen, 
migration & 
security
Cooperation 
on border 
management, 
asylum policies 
and counter-
terrorism 
matters are 
systematic 

Foreign policy 
 & defence

The EU speaks 
with one voice 
on all foreign 
policy issues; 
a European 
Defence Union is 
created

EU budget

Significantly 
redesigned to fit 
the new priorities 
agreed at the 
level of the EU27

Capacity to 
deliver

Initial agreement 
on tasks to 
prioritise or give 
up is challenging; 
once in place, 
decision-making 
may be easier 
to understand; 
the EU acts 
quicker and more 
decisively where 
it has a greater 
role

Illustrative snapshots

•  A European Telecoms Authority has the power to free up frequencies for cross-border communication services, 

such as the ones needed for the use of connected cars across Europe. It acts as a regulator to protect the rights 
of mobile and internet users wherever they are in the EU.

•  A new European Counter-terrorism Agency helps to deter and prevent serious attacks in European cities by the 
systematic tracking and flagging of suspects. National police authorities can easily access European databases 
containing the biometric information of criminals.

• 

The European Border and Coast Guard fully takes over the management of external borders.

•  Salaries, social legislation and taxation levels continue to vary significantly across Europe.

• 

• 

European consumers misled by car manufacturers can now rely on the EU to sanction such companies and 
obtain compensation.

Farmers can access affordable, real-time weather and crop management data thanks to a fully-functioning 
European satellite system. 

23

Scenario 5: Doing much more together 

THE EUROPEAN UNION DECIDES TO DO MUCH 
MORE TOGETHER ACROSS ALL POLICY AREAS.

Why and how?

In a scenario where there is consensus that neither the 
EU27 as it is, nor European countries on their own, are 
well-equipped enough to face the challenges of the day, 
Member States decide to share more power, resources 
and decision-making across the board.

As a result, cooperation between all Member States goes 
further than ever before in all domains. Similarly, the 
euro area is strengthened with the clear understanding 
that whatever is beneficial for countries sharing the 
common currency is also beneficial for all. Decisions are 
agreed faster at European level and are rapidly enforced.

By 2025, this means:

On the international scene, Europe speaks and acts 
as one in trade and is represented by one seat in most 
international fora. The European Parliament has 
the final say on international trade agreements. Defence 
and security are prioritised. In full complementarity 
with NATO, a European Defence Union is created. 
Cooperation in security matters is routine. The EU27 
continues to lead the global fight against climate 
change and strengthens its role as the world’s largest 
humanitarian and development aid donor. 

The EU’s broad-ranging foreign policy leads it to 
reinforce its joint approach on migration. Closer 
partnerships and increased investment in Europe’s 
neighbourhood and beyond help to create economic 
opportunities, manage regular migration and tackle 
irregular channels.

Within the EU27, there is a strong focus and ambition 
to complete the single market in the field of energy, 
digital and services. Thanks to joint investment in 
innovation and research, several European “Silicon 
Valleys” emerge to host clusters of venture capitalists, 
start-ups, large companies and research centres. Fully 
integrated capital markets help mobilise finance for 
SMEs and major infrastructure projects across the EU. 

Within the euro area, but also for those Member States 
wishing to join, there is much greater coordination on 
fiscal, social and taxation matters, as well as European 
supervision of financial services. Additional EU 
financial support is made available to boost economic 
development and respond to shocks at regional, sectoral 
and national level.

Pros and cons:

There is far greater and quicker decision-making at 
EU level. Citizens have more rights derived directly from 
EU law. However, there is the risk of alienating parts of 
society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has 
taken too much power away from national authorities.

24

Impact on policies

Single market  
& trade

Economic &  
Monetary Union

Single market 
strengthened 
through 
harmonisation 
of standards 
and stronger 
enforcement; 
trade exclusively 
dealt with at EU 
level

Economic, 
financial and 
fiscal Union is 
achieved as 
envisioned in the 
report of the Five 
Presidents of 
June 2015

Schengen, 
migration & 
security
As in “Doing less 
more efficiently”, 
cooperation 
on border 
management, 
asylum policies 
and counter-
terrorism matters 
is systematic 

Foreign policy 
 & defence

As in “Doing less 
more efficiently”, 
the EU speaks 
with one voice 
on all foreign 
policy issues; 
a European 
Defence Union is 
created

EU budget

Significantly 
modernised 
and increased, 
backed up by 
own resources; 
a euro area fiscal 
stabilisation 
function is 
operational

Capacity to 
deliver

Decision-making 
is faster and 
enforcement is 
stronger across 
the board; 
questions of 
accountability 
arise for some 
who feel that 
the EU has taken 
too much power 
away from the 
Member States

Illustrative snapshots

• 

• 

• 

Trade agreements are actively pursued. They are initiated, negotiated and swiftly ratified by the EU on behalf of 
its 27 Member States.

Europeans use connected cars seamlessly across Europe thanks to EU-wide rules and the work of an EU 
enforcement agency.

Europeans wanting to have a say on a proposed EU-funded wind turbine project in their local area struggle to 
identify the responsible European authority.

•  Citizens travelling abroad receive consular protection and assistance from EU embassies, which in some parts of 
the world have replaced national ones. Non-EU citizens wishing to travel to Europe can process visa applications 
through the same network.

• 

The European Stability Mechanism becomes the European Monetary Fund. It is subject to the control of the 
European Parliament and takes up new responsibilities to support the European Investment Bank in raising the 
financing of the third generation of the “Juncker Plan” to boost investment across Europe.

25

4. The way ahead

Much of the progress that seemed impossible 
60 years ago in Europe is now taken for granted. 
Our darkest days are still far brighter than any spent 
by our forefathers imprisoned in Ventotene.

Even for visionary minds like theirs, the freedoms, rights 
and opportunities that the EU has since created would 
have been unimaginable. As a united Europe marks its 
anniversary, it is time to renew our vows, rediscover our 
pride and shape our own future.

Change in all things may be inevitable, but what we 
want from our lives and the European values that we 
hold dear remain the same. We want a society in which 
peace, freedom, tolerance and solidarity are placed above 
all else. We want to live in a democracy with a diversity 
of views and a critical, independent and free press. We 
want to be free to speak our mind and be sure that no 
individual or institution is above the law. We want a 
Union in which all citizens and all Member States are 
treated equally. We want to create a better life for our 
children than we had for ourselves.

Regardless of which of the scenarios presented here ends 
up closest to reality, these values and aspirations will 
continue to bind Europeans and are worth fighting for.

The EU is a unique project in which domestic priorities 
have been combined and sovereignty voluntarily pooled 
to better serve national and collective interests. It has not 
always been an easy journey, it has never been perfect, 
but it has shown 
its capacity to reform itself and has proven its value over 
time. Following the motto of “unity in diversity”, the 
EU and its Member States have been able to draw on the 
unique strengths and richness of their nations to achieve 
unprecedented progress.

In an uncertain world, the allure of isolation may be 
tempting to some, but the consequences of division and 
fragmentation would be far-reaching. It would expose 
European countries and citizens to the spectre of their 
divided past and make them prey to 
the interests of stronger powers.

Europe must now choose. There are as many 
opportunities as there are challenges. This can be 
Europe’s hour, but it can only be seized by all 27 
Member States acting together with common resolve.

This White Paper should open an honest and wide- 
ranging debate with citizens on how Europe should 
evolve in the years to come. Every voice should be heard. 
The European Commission, together with the European 
Parliament and Member States, will host 
a series of “Future of Europe Debates” across Europe’s 
national Parliaments, cities and regions. The ideas and 
determination of the hundreds of millions of Europeans 
will be the catalyst of our progress.

The White Paper is the European Commission’s 
contribution to the Rome Summit. Like all 
anniversaries, Rome will be a natural time to reflect on 
the success of the last 60 years. However, it should also 
be viewed as the beginning of a process for the EU27 to 
decide together on the future of their Union.

The European Commission will contribute to that 
discussion in the months ahead with a series of reflection 
papers on the following topics:

• 
• 

developing the social dimension of Europe;
deepening the Economic and Monetary Union, 
on the basis of the Five Presidents’ Report of 
June 2015;

•  harnessing globalisation;
• 
• 

the future of Europe’s defence; 
the future of EU finances.

Like this White Paper, these reflection papers will 
offer different ideas, proposals, options or scenarios for 
Europe in 2025 to open a debate without presenting 
definitive decisions at this stage.

President Juncker’s 2017 State of the Union speech will 
take these ideas forward before first conclusions could 
be drawn at the December 2017 European Council. This 
should help decide on a course of action to be rolled out 
in time for the European Parliament elections in June 
2019.

It is our collective will that will drive Europe forward. 
Like the generations before us, we have Europe’s future 
in our own hands.

26

ANNEXES

27

The White Paper process:  
from Rome to the European Parliament elections in 2019

Annex 1

1/03
Commission White Paper on the Future of Europe

Mar 2017

09/03 - 10/03
European Council / Meeting of EU27

25/03
EU27 Summit - Rome Declaration - 60th anniversary

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

End April
Commission reflection paper on the social dimension of Europe

Mid-May
Commission reflection paper on harnessing globalisation

End May
Commission reflection paper on the deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union

26/05 - 27/05
G7 Summit, Taormina, Italy

Early June
Commission reflection paper on the future of European defence

09/06
Conference on security and defence, Prague, Czech Republic

22/06 - 23/06
European Council

End June
Commission reflection paper on the future of EU ﬁnances

07/07 - 08/07
G20 Summit, Hamburg, Germany

Mid-September
State of the Union 2017 Speech

19/10 - 20/10
European Council

17/11
Social summit, Gothenburg, Sweden

14/12 - 15/12
European Council / Meeting of EU27

Future of 
Europe debates 
in Parliaments, 
cities and 
regions

Jun 2019

June
European Parliament elections 

28

The ﬁve scenarios: policy overview

Annex 2

Carrying on

Nothing but the 
single market

Those who want 
more do more

Doing less 
more efficiently

Doing much
more together

e
d
a
r
t

Single market is 
strengthened, including 
in the energy and digital 
sectors; the EU27 
pursues progressive trade 
agreements

Single market for 
goods and capital 
strengthened; standards 
continue to differ; free 
movement of people 
and services not fully 
guaranteed

As in “Carrying 
on”, single market 
is strengthened and 
the EU27 pursues 
progressive trade 
agreements

Common standards 
set to a minimum 
but enforcement is 
strengthened in areas 
regulated at EU level; 
trade exclusively dealt 
with at EU level

Single market 
strengthened through 
harmonisation of 
standards and stronger 
enforcement; trade 
exclusively dealt with at 
EU level

&

t
e
k
r
a
m
e
g
n
S

l

i

&
c
i
m
o
n
o
c
E

y
r
a
t
e
n
o
M

i

n
o
n
U

Incremental progress 
on improving the 
functioning of the euro 
area

Cooperation in the euro 
area is limited

As in “Carrying on” 
except for a group of 
countries who deepen 
cooperation in areas 
such as taxation and 
social standards

Several steps are taken 
to consolidate the euro 
area and ensure its 
stability; the EU27 does 
less in some parts of 
employment and social 
policy

Economic, financial 
and fiscal Union is 
achieved as envisioned 
in the report of the Five 
Presidents of June 2015

y
t
i
r
u
c
e
s
&

e
c
n
e
f
e
d

n
o
i
t
a
r
g
m

i

,

n
e
g
n
e
h
c
S

&
y
c
i
l

o
p

i

n
g
e
r
o
F

t
e
g
d
u
b
U
E

r
e
v
i
l

e
d

o
t

y
t
i
c
a
p
a
C

Cooperation in the 
management of external 
borders stepped up 
gradually; progress 
towards a common 
asylum system; 
improved coordination 
on security matters

No single migration or 
asylum policy; further 
coordination on security 
dealt with bilaterally; 
internal border controls 
are more systematic

As in “Carrying on” 
except for a group of 
countries who deepen 
cooperation on security 
and justice matters

Cooperation on border 
management, asylum 
policies and counter-
terrorism matters are 
systematic 

As in “Doing less more 
efficiently”, cooperation 
on border management, 
asylum policies and 
counter-terrorism 
matters is systematic 

Progress is made on 
speaking with one voice 
on foreign affairs; closer 
defence cooperation 

Some foreign policy 
issues are increasingly 
dealt with bilaterally; 
defence cooperation 
remains as it is today 

Partly modernised to 
reflect the reform agenda 
agreed at 27 

Refocused to finance 
essential functions 
needed for the single 
market

As in “Carrying on” 
except for a group of 
countries who deepen 
cooperation on defence, 
focusing on military 
coordination and joint 
equipment

As in “Carrying on”; 
additional budgets are 
made available by some 
Member States for the 
areas where they decide 
to do more 

The EU speaks with 
one voice on all foreign 
policy issues; a European 
Defence Union is 
created

As in “Doing less more 
efficiently”, the EU 
speaks with one voice on 
all foreign policy issues; 
a European Defence 
Union is created

Significantly redesigned 
to fit the new priorities 
agreed at the level of the 
EU27

Significantly modernised 
and increased, backed up 
by own resources; a euro 
area fiscal stabilisation 
function is operational

Positive agenda for 
action yields concrete 
results; decision-making 
remains complex to 
grasp; capacity to deliver 
does not always match 
expectations

Decision-making may 
be easier to understand 
but capacity to act 
collectively is limited; 
issues of common 
concern often need to be 
solved bilaterally

As in "Carrying on", 
a positive agenda for 
action at 27 yields 
results; some groups 
achieve more together 
in certain domains; 
decision-making 
becomes more complex 

Initial agreement on 
tasks to prioritise or 
give up is challenging; 
once in place, decision-
making may be easier 
to understand; the EU 
acts quicker and more 
decisively where it has a 
greater role

Decision-making is 
faster and enforcement 
is stronger across the 
board; questions of 
accountability arise for 
some who feel that the 
EU has taken too much 
power away from the 
Member States

29

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). 
For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly 
from the copyright holders
Photo page 11, © AP Photo/Thomas Kienzle

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ISBN: 978-92-79-67652-9
doi:10.2775/66626