REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Renewable Energy Progress Report
Date: 2017-02-01
Institutions: Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission
Subjects: biofuel, clean technology, electrical energy, energy consumption, energy industry, environmental protection, reduction of gas emissions, renewable energy, renewable resources, self-sufficiency in energy

EN 

   EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 1.2.2017  COM(2017) 57 final   REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Renewable Energy Progress Report  
 
 
INTRODUCTION 

Renewable  Energy  is  at  the  core  of  the  Energy  Union's  priorities.  The  Renewable  Energy 
Directive1 has been and will continue being a central element of the Energy Union policy and 
a key driver for providing clean energy for all Europeans, in view of making the EU world 
number one in renewables while contributing to the five dimensions of the Energy Union. 

First, renewables have played a major role in energy security. Their estimated contribution to 
fossil fuel import savings in 2015 was €16bn and it is projected to be €58bn in 20302. Second, 
thanks to fast decreasing costs owing to technological advancement, especially in the power 
sector, renewables can also be gradually further integrated in the market. The recast of the 
Renewables Directive for the period after 2020 together with the Market Design proposals3 as 
part  of  the  Clean  Energy  for  all  Europeans  package  will  further  enable  renewables 
participation  on  equal  footing  with  other  energy  sources.  Third,  renewables  also  walk  hand 
and  hand  with  energy  efficiency.  In  the  electricity  sector,  fuel-switching  from  combustible 
fossil fuels to non-combustible renewables could reduce primary energy consumption4. In the 
building  sector,  renewables  solutions  can  improve  the  energy  performance  of  building  in  a 
cost-effective way. Fourth, renewables are also a crucial driver for the decarbonization of the 
Union's  energy  system.  In  2015,  renewables  contributed  to  gross  avoided  greenhouse  gases 
(GHG) emissions of the equivalent of the emissions of Italy5. Last but not least, renewables 
play  a  major  role  in  making  the  EU  a  global  leader  on  innovation.  With  30%  of  global 
patents in renewables, the EU has been a pioneer in this field, and is committed to prioritise 
research and innovation to further drive the energy transition6. 

In addition, the benefits of renewables expand well beyond the above. Renewable energies are 
source  of  economic  growth  and  jobs  for  Europeans7.  They  also  contribute  to  lowering  air 
pollution and helping developing countries with access to affordable and clean energy. 

In  2014,  the  EU  and  a  vast  majority  of  Member  States  were  on  track  to  their  2020  binding 
targets.  Progress  has  been  fastest  in  the  electricity  sector,  while  the  largest  absolute 
contribution continues to be provided in the heating and cooling sector. Progress in transport 
has been slowest so far. The existence of a large untapped potential in the heating and cooling 
and  transport  sectors  calls  for  further  action  as  set  out  in  the  proposal  for  a  recast  of  the 
Renewable  Energy  Directive  for  the  period  after  2020,  as  part  of  the  Clean  Energy  for  all 
Europeans package presented in November 2016. This package confirms the commitment of 
the  European  Commission  to  make  the  European  Union  the  world  number  one  in 
renewables and provide a fair deal for energy consumers.  

In  accordance  with  the  requirements  set  out  in  the  Renewable  Energy  Directive,  this  report 
provides  a  comprehensive  overview  of  renewable  energy  deployment  in  the  EU.  It  also 
includes  an  assessment  of  administrative  barriers,  as  well  as  biofuel  sustainability.  Unless 
otherwise specified, data from 2004 to 2014 is based on Eurostat Shares and 2015 data from 

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Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, OJ L 140, 5.6.2009 
Compared  with  2005  baseline,  source:  Öko-Institut,  Study  on  Technical  Assistance  in  Realisation  of  the  2016 
Report on Renewable Energy, available under: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies 
as part of the “Clean Energy for All Europeans” package, issued on 30th November 2016 
assuming a Primary Energy Factor of 2.5, 1 unit of renewable could replace 2.5 units of fossil electricity 
436 MtCO2eq compared with 2005 baseline. Source :EEA 
See Commission Communication “Accelerating Clean Energy Innovation” Com(2016) 763 
in  2014,  above  1million  persons  were  employed  in  this  sector  and  the  combined  turnover  reached  around  144 
billion euro (EurObser'ER report) 

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early estimates8. Overarching progress is assessed versus trajectories set out in Annex I of the 
Renewable  Energy  Directive,  while  sector-  and  technology-specific  assessments  are 
performed  versus  the  trajectories  from  Member  States'  National  Renewable  Energy  Action 
Plans (NREAPs)9. 2020 projections are based on PRIMES Ref2016 scenario10. 

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2015  estimates.  source:  Öko-Institut,  Study  on  Technical  Assistance  in  Realisation  of  the  2016  Report  on 
Renewable Energy, available under: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/studies 
Aggregated trajectories at EU-level are provided for illustrative purpose and have no legal value 
detailed description available under : 
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/20160713%20draft_publication_REF2016_v13.pdf 

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1. PROGRESS IN DEPLOYING RENEWABLE ENERGY 

a.  EU28 progress in deploying renewable energy 

In  2014,  the  share  of  renewable  energy  sources  (RES  share)  reached  16%  of  gross  final 
energy consumption. The average RES share of the EU-28 in 2013/2014 amounted to 15.5%, 
substantially above the indicative trajectory (2013/2014) for the EU-28 of 12.1%11. In 2015, 
RES  shares  are  estimated  to  be  around  16.4%  of  gross  final  energy  consumption,  while  the 
indicative trajectory for 2015/2016  is 13.8%.  However,  as the trajectory becomes  steeper in 
the years ahead, efforts to keep on track will need to intensify, as shown in Figure 1. 

Figure 1: Renewable energy shares in the EU vs. Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and National Renewable 

Energy Action Plan (NREAP) trajectories (based on EUROSTAT, Öko-Institut) 

As  shown  in  Figure  2,  heating  and  cooling  remains  the  largest  sector  in  terms  of  absolute 
renewable energy deployment. The highest RES share and the largest growth are however in 
the  electricity  sector,  where  the  RES  share  grew  by  1.4  percentage  points  per  year  between 
2004  and  2014.  The  RES  share  in  the  heating  and  cooling  sector  grew  by  0.8  percentage 
points  per year over the same period of time,  while  the  transport sector  showed the slowest 
growth, with 0.5 percentage points on average per year. 

11  

On its Annex I, the renewable energy directive sets out a formula to calculate indicative trajectory for two years as 
an  average  for  each  Member  State.  One  can  derive  from  the  formula  an  indicative  trajectory  for  the  EU-28  as  a 
whole. However, this extrapolation is presented for illustrative purposes only and has no legal value, i.e. the EU as 
a whole does not have any indicative RES trajectory under the renewable energy directive. 

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Figure 2: final energy consumption in the EU28 in 2015 (source: Öko-Institut) 

i.  Heating and cooling  

Figure 3 : EU-28 renewable heating and cooling production by source (source: EUROSTAT, Öko-Institut) 

With  an  estimated  renewable  share  of  18.1%  in  2015,  the  EU  as  a  whole  is  above  its 
aggregated NREAP trajectory when it comes to heating and cooling12. As shown in Figure 3, 
solid  biomass  continues  to  remain  by  far  the  largest  contributor  (82%)  to  renewable  heat 
production (72 Mtoe). 

12  

NREAP aggregation indicates an expected share of 15.0 % and 16% respectively in 2014 and 2015. 

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The  production  from  heat  pumps  steadily  increased  from  1.8  Mtoe  in  2004  to  9.7  Mtoe  in 
2015,  exceeding  the  indicative  trajectory  from  NREAPs  (7.3  Mtoe).  Italy  is  the  leading 
country  in  its  deployment,  with  most  heat  pumps  however  primarily  used  for  cooling. 
Although the EU market of heat pumps has been slowing down since 2013, has potential to 
increase in the coming years13. 

Renewable waste14 deployment amounted to 3.4 Mtoe in 2015. While the share of biogas in 
heating  and  cooling  was  negligible  in  2004  (0.7  Mtoe),  in  2015  it  surpassed  the  projected 
values with 3.2 Mtoe.  

Solar thermal heat production, with 2.0 Mtoe in 2015, failed to keep up with the projections 
included in the NREAPs (3 Mtoe). The annual capacity installed in 2015 was below what had 
been installed in 2006, influenced by warm winters, low fossil prices, but also the competition 
of other renewable technologies such as heat pumps or solar photovoltaic. 

With  output  approximated  at  0.7  Mtoe  in  2015,  geothermal  deployment  is  below  the 
NREAPs  anticipated  trajectory.  Due  to  their  high  natural  potential,  three  countries  (Italy, 
France and Hungary) are leading the European geothermal production. The slow deployment 
of this technology is mainly due to very high capital expenditures. 

ii. 

Electricity 

Figure 4 : EU-28 renewable electricity production by source (source: EUROSTAT, Öko-
Institut) 

With  an  estimated  28.3%  RES-E  in  2015,  the  EU  is  well  ahead  of  its  aggregated  NREAP 
trajectory for renewable shares in electricity.  

National  support  schemes  vary  across  the  Union  and  have  been  subject  to  numerous 
changes15.  The  proposal  for  a  recast  of  this  Directive  contains  several  provisions  aiming  at 

13  
14  

based on PRIMES EUCO30 scenario 
as accounted by Eurostat under "renewable municipal solid waste" 

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increasing  investor  confidence  by  having  a  more  Europeanised  and  market-based  approach 
and preventing retroactive changes that compromise the economics of the supported projects. 

Hydropower still generates the largest share of renewable electricity, while its share declined 
from  74 %  in  2004  to  38%  in  2015.  In  2015,  the  EU-28  was  on  track  with  its  aggregated 
planned NREAPs trajectory. Sweden, France, Italy, Austria and Spain have around 70 % of 
all hydropower in the EU-28. 

The  deployment  of  wind  power  more  than  quadrupled  over  the  period  2004-2015,  and 
currently accounts for around one third of renewable electricity. Onshore wind deployment is 
rather close to the anticipated trajectory throughout the years. The largest contributions have 
come from Germany and Spain. Regarding offshore wind, four countries (Sweden, Germany, 
the  United  Kingdom  and  Denmark)  are  also  estimated  to  be  above  their  anticipated  2015 
trajectory. However, at EU level, offshore wind has shown a slower progress than expected, 
with a -12% deviation from the NREAP trajectory in 2015, mostly due to initially high costs 
(now substantially decreasing) and grid connections issues. The development has nevertheless 
accelerated significantly in recent years. 

Solar  photovoltaic  (solar-PV)  increased  rapidly  and  in  2015  accounted  for  12%  of  all 
renewable electricity. In 2013 its deployment had surpassed that of solid biomass for the first 
time. In 2015, 38 % of the solar-PV electricity in the EU-28 was produced in Germany, Italy 
and  Spain.  The  considerable  growth  in  solar-PV  electricity  has  been  driven  by  rapid 
technological  progress,  cost  reductions  and  relatively  short  project  development  times.  This 
has not only enabled a rapid and cost-efficient deployment, it has also contributed to putting 
the  consumer  at  the  centre  of  the  energy  transition.  This  ambition  regarding  consumer 
empowerment  has  been  confirmed  by  the  proposal  for  a  recast  of  the  Renewable  Energy 
Directive  and  the  Market  Design  proposals.  Regarding  regional  cooperation,  in  July  2016, 
Denmark and Germany signed a cooperation agreement on the mutual opening of auctions for 
solar-PV  installations.  This  agreement  goes  in  the  direction  of  the  opening  up  of  support 
schemes  to  cross-border  participation  that  the  recast  of  the  Renewable  Energy  Directive 
proposes. 

Electricity generation from biomass on EU-28 level grew from around 9 Mtoe in 2010 to 13 
Mtoe  in  2015.  However,  this  technology  did  not  reach  the  level  planned  for  that  year.  The 
deployment  of  biogas  and  bioliquids  combined,  both  at  negligible  levels  in  2004,  reached 
7% of renewable electricity in 2015. For what concerns biogas, its use has grown faster than 
expected, especially in Germany and Italy. 

15  

National support schemes implemented by Member States are subject to state aid rules, as set out in the Guidelines 
on State aid for environmental protection and energy 2014 – 2020 

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iii. 

Transport 

Figure 5: EU-28 renewable energy in transport, by source (source: EUROSTAT, Öko-Institut) 

Transport is the only  sector  which is currently below  aggregated NREAP trajectories at  EU 
level, with a 6 % share of renewable energy in 201516. This confirms a rather slow progress to 
the  mandatory  10%  target  in  transport,  due  to  various  difficulties  including  relatively  high 
GHG  mitigation  costs  and  regulatory  uncertainty17.  Renewable  energy  in  this  sector  comes 
largely from biofuels (88%), with electricity playing a more limited role at this stage. 

Biodiesel is the main biofuel used for transport in the EU, representing 79% of total use of 
biofuels  in  2015.  Despite  this  leading  position,  biodiesel  did  not  reach  the  expected 
deployment anticipated by the NREAPs trajectory for 2015 (10.9 Mtoe instead of 14.4 Mtoe). 
The main consumers of biodiesel are France, Germany and Italy. 

Bioethanol  is  the  second  largest  contributor  of  renewable  energy  sources  to  the  transport 
sector and represents 20% of biofuels. However, its use did not reach by far the level expected 
in NREAPs in 2015 (2.6 Mtoe instead of 4.9 Mtoe). Main consumers in 2015 were Germany, 
the United Kingdom and France, followed by Spain, Sweden, Poland and the Netherlands. 

Renewable electricity contributed 1.7 Mtoe to gross final energy consumption in transport in 
201518, which is 13% lower than the expected aggregated NREAP trajectory. 

Other  renewable  energy  sources  (including  biogas)  do  not  play  a  prominent  role  in  the 
transport sector at EU-28 level, but are deployed in some Member States (e.g. in Sweden and 
Finland). 

The  share  of  biofuels  produced  from  wastes,  residues,  ligno-cellulosic  and  non-food 
cellulosic material19 in the EU biofuel mix20 has increased from 1% in 2009 to 23% in 201521, 

16  
17  

18  
19  
20  

including multiple counting 
Influenced by the discussions on the legal framework for biofuels produced from crops grown on agricultural land 
and ILUC  
without multiplicators 
Former Article 21(2) of Directive 2009/28/EC 
compliant biofuels as accounted towards the renewable energy target 

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mostly  driven  by  Sweden,  the  United  Kingdom  and  Germany.  At  EU  level,  these  biofuels 
exceeded by three times the planned trajectory, with around 3 Mtoe in 2015, mainly because 
of the utilization of used cooking oil.  

b.  Detailed assessment by Member State and projections 

All but one Member State (the Netherlands22) showed average 2013/2014 RES shares which 
were equal or higher than their corresponding indicative RED trajectory. According to 2015 
estimates, 25 Member States already exceeded their 2015/2016 indicative RED trajectories in 
2015.  Three  Member  States  (the  Netherlands,  France  and  Luxembourg)  had  2015  RES 
estimated shares below their 2015/2016 indicative RED trajectory (see Figure 6). 

Figure 6 : Member States current progress towards their 2013/2014 and 2015/2016 indicative RED targets. 

(source: Öko-Institut, EUROSTAT) 

The  PRIMES  Reference  Scenario  2016  assumes  that  the  EU  as  a  whole  and  a  majority  of 
Member States will take sufficient action up to 2020 to achieve their targets. Member States 
which  are  currently  projected  not  to  meet  their  national  RES  binding  targets  by  202023  will 
have  the  possibility  to  use  cooperation  mechanisms.  Table  1  summarizes  past,  current  and 
expected  renewable  deployment  at  Member  States  level,  including  current  trajectory  in  the 
transport sector compared with the 10% specific target. 

22  

23  

21 in ktoe, without mutiple counting 
It has informed the Commission on the adoption of new measures to regain its trajectory and ensure compliance 
with its target. 
Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. For the UK the expected gap is however very short 
(around 0.2%). Hungary, with a gap below 0.01%, has not been included here 

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Table 1: Overview of Member States' progress towards 2020 targets in renewable energy (source: Öko-Institut, EUROSTAT)

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Member StateRES Share 2013Average RES Share 2013/2014 RED indicative trajectory (2013/2014)RES Share 2014RES Share 2015 (proxy)RED indicative trajectory (2015/2016)projected RES Share 2020(PRIMES Ref 2016)RES 2020 targetRES-T shares 2014RES-T shares 2015 (proxy)AT32.3%32.7%26.5%33.1%33.6%28.1%35.2%34.0%8.9%8.3%BE7.5%7.8%5.4%8.0%7.3%7.1%13.9%13.0%4.9%3.3%BG19.0%18.5%11.4%18.0%18.4%12.4%20.9%16.0%5.3%5.3%CY8.1%8.5%5.9%9.0%9.1%7.4%14.8%13.0%2.7%2.2%CZ12.4%12.9%8.2%13.4%13.6%9.2%13.5%13.0%6.1%6.0%DE12.4%13.1%9.5%13.8%14.5%11.3%18.5%18.0%6.6%6.4%DK27.3%28.2%20.9%29.2%30.6%22.9%33.8%30.0%5.8%5.3%EE25.6%26.0%20.1%26.5%27.9%21.2%25.7%25.0%0.2%0.2%EL15.0%15.2%10.2%15.3%15.5%11.9%18.4%18.0%1.4%1.4%ES15.3%15.8%12.1%16.2%15.6%13.8%20.9%20.0%0.5%0.5%FR14.0%14.2%14.1%14.3%14.5%16.0%23.5%23.0%7.8%7.8%FI36.7%37.7%31.4%38.7%39.5%32.8%42.4%38.0%21.6%22.0%HR28.1%28.0%14.8%27.9%27.5%15.9%21.1%20.0%2.1%2.1%HU9.5%9.5%6.9%9.5%9.4%8.2%13.0%13.0%6.9%6.7%IE7.7%8.2%7.0%8.6%9.0%8.9%15.5%16.0%5.2%5.9%IT16.7%16.9%8.7%17.1%17.1%10.5%19.8%17.0%4.5%4.7%LT23.0%23.4%17.4%23.9%24.3%18.6%24.0%23.0%4.2%4.3%LU3.6%4.1%3.9%4.5%5.0%5.4%8.3%11.0%5.2%5.9%LV37.1%37.9%34.8%38.7%39.2%35.9%40.3%40.0%3.2%3.3%MT3.7%4.2%3.0%4.7%5.3%4.5%11.8%10.0%4.7%5.0%NL4.8%5.2%5.9%5.5%6.0%7.6%13.0%14.0%5.7%5.6%PL11.3%11.4%9.5%11.4%11.8%10.7%15.1%15.0%5.7%5.9%PT25.7%26.3%23.7%27.0%27.8%25.2%33.4%31.0%3.4%6.7%RO23.9%24.4%19.7%24.9%24.7%20.6%26.0%24.0%3.8%3.9%SE52.0%52.3%42.6%52.6%54.1%43.9%56.2%49.0%19.2%24.2%SI22.5%22.2%18.7%21.9%21.8%20.1%25.0%25.0%2.6%2.6%SK10.1%10.9%8.9%11.6%11.9%10.0%14.3%14.0%6.9%6.5%UK5.6%6.3%5.4%7.0%8.2%7.5%14.8%15.0%4.9%4.2%EU-2815.0%15.5%12.1%16.0%16.4%13.8%21.0%20.0%5.9%6.0%Source: Directive 2009/28/EC; Eurostat SHARES 2014; EEA RES proxy (2015); PRIMES (2020, 2025, 2030)% final consumptionRES-allTransport (with multipl. Counting)% final consumption 
 
 
 
2. OVERVIEW OF ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES  

Administrative barriers entail additional development costs stemming from uncertainty, which 
especially  impacts  renewable  projects  with  higher  capital  costs  compared  to  conventional 
energy projects. Such barriers can lead to delays in deployment or even prevent projects from 
being  realised.  With  rapidly  decreasing  technology  costs,  administrative  procedures  are 
proportionally  gaining  weight  in  the  overall  cost  of  renewable  projects24.  The  Renewable 
Energy  Directive  requires  Member  States’  permitting  procedures  for  renewable  energy 
projects to be proportionate and necessary. It also includes the obligation for Member States 
to  outline,  in  their  first  progress  report,  whether  they  intended  to  (i)  establish  a  single 
administrative  body  for  applications  for  renewable  energy  installations;  (ii)  provide  for 
automatic  approval  of  permit  applications  where  the  authorizing  body  has  not  responded 
within the set time limits; (iii) and indicate geographical locations suitable for exploitation of 
energy from renewable sources.  

Member  States  have  made  progress  on  reducing  administrative  burden  since  the  entry  into 
force of the Renewable  Energy  Directive. The majority  of  them have  established maximum 
time limits for permitting procedures as well as facilitated procedures for small-scale projects, 
and  most  of  them  identify  geographical  sites  for  renewable  projects.  Furthermore,  an 
increasing number of Member States offer project developers the possibility to submit online 
applications.  However,  as  shown  in  Figure  7,  barriers  remain,  e.g.  for  one-stop  shops  or 
automatic permission granting after the deadline. 

In comparison to 2012, in 2014 the situation hardly changed regarding the implementation of 
a  one-stop  shop.  Only  a  few  countries  like  France,  Belgium  and  Luxemburg  adopted  this 
measure. A slight improvement took also place regarding online applications, which Austria 
and Bulgaria started to implement. Furthermore, the application of maximum time limits did 
extend  to  almost  all  Member  States.  However,  the  number  of  Member  States  applying 
facilitated  procedures  for  small  scale  projects  decreased.  Table  2  provides  a  comprehensive 
overview of facilitated procedures at Member State level. 

Figure 7: Administrative barriers in the EU in 2014 (number of Member States concerned) (source: Öko-Institut) 

24  

Refit Evaluation of the Renewable energy directive, SWD (2016) 416 final 

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Table 2: State of play of the availability of facilitated administrative procedures in EU Member States in 2014 (source: Öko-Institut) 

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One Stop ShopOnline applicationMaximum time limit for proceduresAutomatic permission after deadlineFacilitated procedures for small scale producersIdentification of geographical sitesAustriaabsentexistingabsentabsentexistingabsentBelgiumexistingpartly existingexistingno informationexistingpartly existingBulgariaexistingexistingexistingexistingabsentexistingCyprusabsentabsentexistingabsentexistingexistingCzech RepublicabsentexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingGermanyexistingexistingexistingexistingexistingexistingDenmarkpartly existingexistingexistingexistingexistingexistingEstoniaabsentexistingexistingexistingabsentabsentGreeceexistingexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingSpainabsentabsentexistingabsentexistingabsentFinlandabsentabsentabsentabsentexistingexistingFranceexistingexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingHungaryabsentexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingCroatiaabsentabsentexistingno informationexistingpartly existingIrelandabsentexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingItalyexistingabsentexistingabsentexistingabsentLithuaniaabsentexistingexistingexistingexistingno informationLuxembourgexistingexistingexistingabsentno informationexistingLatviaabsentabsentexistingabsentabsentabsentMaltaexistingexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingThe NetherlandsexistingexistingexistingexistingexistingexistingPolandabsentabsentexistingabsentexistingabsentPortugalabsentexistingexistingabsentexistingexistingRomaniaabsentabsentexistingabsentabsentabsentSloveniaabsentabsentabsentabsentabsentabsentSlovakiaabsentabsentexistingabsentexistingabsentSwedenexistingexistingexistingexistingno informationexistingUnited Kingdomexistingabsentexistingabsentexistingabsent 
 
 
 
 
3. ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF EU BIOFUELS 

a.  GHG emission performance 

The Member States reported net savings in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the use 
of  renewable  energy  in  transport  of  around  35  Mt  CO2-equivalent  in  2014.Most  of  these 
reported savings came from the use of biofuels, with a small but growing role of renewable 
electricity.  These  savings  cover  only  direct  emissions  and  do  not  include  emissions  from 
Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC).  

ILUC emissions associated to biofuels consumed in the EU are estimated to be 23 Mt CO2-
equivalent,  leaving  a  net  saving  of  12  Mt  CO2-equivalent25.  Applying  the  associated 
sensitivity  range  as  set  out  in  Annex  VIII  of  the  Renewable  Energy  Directive,  ILUC 
emissions  would  range  between  14  and  28  Mt  CO2-equivalent  and  the  corresponding  net 
savings between 7 and 21 Mt CO2-equivalent.  

Recent  modelling  work26  of  the  ILUC  impacts  of  individual  biofuel  feedstock  confirms  that 
ILUC emissions can be much higher for biofuels produced from vegetable oils compared to 
biofuels  produced  from  starch  or  sugar.  Advanced  biofuels  from  non-food  crops  have 
generally very low or no ILUC emissions. 

b.  Trade and main supplier countries 

In  2014,  around  10%  of  bioethanol  and  around  26%  of  biodiesel  consumed  in  the  EU  was 
imported. The main exporting countries were Malaysia for biodiesel and Guatemala, Bolivia, 
Pakistan, Russia, Peru for bioethanol27. Three of them28 participate in the EU Special Incentive 
Arrangement for Sustainable Development and Good Governance ("GSP+"). The first Report 
on the Generalized Scheme of Preferences for the period 2014-201529 provides an analysis of 
the  situation  on  human  and  labor  rights,  environmental  protection  and  good  governance  in 
these countries. In 2015, imports of bioethanol and biodiesel decreased with largest decrease 
of ethanol imports from GSP+ countries.  

Data  regarding  the  disaggregation  by  feedstock  for  production  of  bioethanol  and  biodiesel 
consumed in the EU differs depending on information source30. All available sources however 
confirm  that  EU  ethanol  is  mainly  produced  from  wheat,  maize  and  sugar  beet,  and  that  in 
2014, more than 50% of biodiesel consumed in the EU was produced from rapeseed while the 
use  of  waste  oils  and  fats  but  also  of  palm  oil  has  significantly  increased  since  201031.  In 
accordance with industry data, more than 60% of biodiesel and more than 90% of bioethanol 
consumed in the EU was produced from the EU feedstock32. 

25  

26  
27  
28  
29  
30  
31  

32  

In accordance with Directive (EU) 2015/1513 of 9 September 2015 (so-called ILUC Directive), the Commission is 
required to report on biofuel GHG emissions, including ILUC emission by using feedstock data from the Member 
States' reports due by end of 2017. Since the transposition of Directive (EU) 2015/153 is not yet complete and the 
Member States have not yet started reporting the required data, the Commission based its assessment on data from 
Eurostat  (amounts  of  biodiesel,  other  liquid  biofuels  and  biogasoline  consumed  in  the  EU)  and  data  from  the 
feedstock mix from USDA FAS 2016 and industry data 
Ecofys, IIASA, E4Tech, 2015 
Industry data: see ePUR statistics, published on 22 September 2016. 
Bolivia, Pakistan and Peru. Since January 2016 Guatemala is no longer beneficiaries of the GSP+ instrument 
COM(2016) 29 final, 28 January 2016. 
For EU-28 sources analysed: publicly available data (industry assocaitions and USDA FAS), commercial data 
Publicly  available  data  indicates  that  in  2014,  the  use  of  waste  oils  and  fats  has  increased  more  than  3  times 
compared to 2010 and the use of palm oil has more than doubled compared to 2010. 
Fediol, ePure, EurObserver 

13 

 
 
                                                            
Non  –EU  bioethanol  feedstock  is  imported  from  Ukraine  (maize,  wheat),  Canada  (wheat), 
Russia and Moldova (barley, ray), and Serbia (sugar beet).33 The largest exporters of biodiesel 
feedstock to the EU were Indonesia and Malaysia (palm oil), Brazil and the US (soybean)34. 
The  majority  of  rapeseed  oil  is  of  EU  origin35.  Feedstock  potential  for  advanced  renewable 
fuels is very large, but production facilities at commercial scale are still limited. 

Table 3 : Feedstock base of the EU-28 bioethanol and biodiesel production in 2014 (source: USDA FAS 2016) 

c.  Land use and land use change 

While the forest area, natural area and artificial area increased in the EU between 2000 and 
2016,  grassland  decreased.  In  2015,  the  ratio  of  grassland  to  agricultural  land  declined  by 
2.01% as compared to the reference ratio calculated on the basis of 2005 data36. The loss of 
permanent  grassland  between  2006  and  2016  amounted  to  3  Mha  (-4.9%)37.  While  a  direct 
causal relationship between the loss of grassland area and an increase in the area of cropland 
used for the production of biofuels could not be found in the Union as a whole, it has been 
reported by one Member State38. 

The most recent ILUC modelling39 indicates that, by 2020, the EU biofuel policy could lead 
to an expansion of 1.8 Mha of cropland in the EU and to 0.6 Mha in the rest of the world, with 
0.1  Mha  at  the  expense  of  forest.  Expansion  of  cropland  at  global  level  would  occur  at  the 

33  
34  
35  
36  
37  
38  
39  

USDA FAS, UN Comtrade data: http://comtrade.un.org/ 
USDA FAS, UN Comtrade data: http://comtrade.un.org/ 
USDA FAS and UN Comtrade data: http://comtrade.un.org/ 
SWD(2016) 218 final Review of greening after one year 
EU Agriculture Outlook 2016 
Germany, in its progress report 
GLOBIOM modelling, Valin 2016 

14 

Wheat2,79822%Corn5,17447%Barley5414%Sugar Beet9,36420%Rye8466%Cellulosic Biomass2701%Total bioethanol18,993100%Rapeseed oil6,10052%UCO1,80015%Palm oil1,58013%Soybean oil8908%Animal fats9208%Sunflower oil3203%Other (pine oil, fatty acids)1701%Total biodiesel11,780100%Feedstock mass (1,000 MT)Share of bioethanol/ biodiesel (%)BioethanolBiodieselDomestic and imported feedstock (in 2014) 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
expense of grassland (-1.1 Mha), abandoned land (-0.9 Mha) and other natural vegetation (-
0.4 Mha). 

d.  Environment, economic and development issues 

No significant negative effects from the production of biofuels and bioliquids on biodiversity, 
water resources, water quality and soil quality were found in the EU40. However, indirect land 
use change can cause biodiversity losses if additional land expansion takes place in sensitive 
areas, such as forests and highly biodiverse grassland. 

As  regards  soil  quality,  in  the  EU  these  risks  are  addressed  by  the  Common  Agricultural 
Policy and European and national environmental legislation. Concerning third countries, soil 
degradation could occur when biofuel expansion takes place on land which is not well-suited 
for agricultural use. Research shows that a number of EU biofuel feedstock trading partners 
(e.g.  Russia,  Ukraine,  Canada,  Peru  and  Brazil)  have  cropland  areas  characterized  by  low 
suitability  for  cropping  (irrespectively  of  the  final  use  of  crops),  hence  leading  to  soil 
impacts41. 

No  impacts  of  biofuel  production  on  the  availability  of  water  in  the  EU  were  reported.  As 
regards  water  quality,  Germany  has  reported  negative  impacts  due  to  nitrates  in  areas  with 
high  livestock  intensity  and  more  than  50%  of  arable  land  used  for  maize  production  for 
biogas,  which  however  is  mainly  used  for  electricity  generation.  In  third  countries,  no 
evidence of direct linkages between biofuel production and water stress were identified in the 
biofuel exporting partners to the EU. 

Concerning food prices, it should be noted that between 2012 and 2015, prices of agriculture 
commodities  decreased.  In  2015,  the  price  of  vegetable  oils  reached  its  lowest  level  since 
2005  (in  USD)42,  while  prices  for  oilseed  based  meals  and  cakes  for  feed  increased.  Lower 
biofuel  demand  for  vegetable  oils  was  among  the  factors contributing to  the  fall  in  oils/fats 
prices43.  Other  factors  include:  high  supply  and  stocks  of  grains,  substitution  of  meals  with 
cereals, and low crude oil prices.  

The EU ethanol consumption had negligible impact on cereal prices given that the EU share 
in the global ethanol market did not exceed 7%, and the global cereal market is driven mainly 
by  demand  for  feed.  In  the  future,  the  strongest  biofuel  consumption  growth  is  expected  in 
developing countries, while the increased demand for food and feed for a growing and more 
affluent  population  is  projected  to  be  mostly  met  through  productivity  gains,  with  yield 
improvements expected to account for about 80% of the increase in crop output44. 

Regarding  land  use  right,  the  most  recent  reports  on  large-scale  land  deals  confirm  the 
finding  of  the  2015  Commission  progress  report  on  renewable  energy  that  only  very  small 
share  of  biofuel  projects  outside  the  EU  have  been  developed  with  the EU  market  in  mind. 
And many land acquisition projects launched in early 2000s failed and did not materialise in 
real biofuel production projects. The interest of investors was low in 2014 – 2015, with just 

40  
41  
42  
43  
44  

Member States' reports 
IIASA (Soils suitability mapping, national assesments) 
EU Agriculture Outlook 2016 
FAO Food Outlook October 2015 
OECD-FAO (2016) Agriculture Outlook 2016 - 2025 

15 

 
 
 
                                                            
over half (51%) of the acquired land left idle (67% in sub-Saharan Africa)45. Clear attribution 
of  deals  to  biofuels  is  difficult  as  the  agriculture  crops  may  end  up  in  the  food  chain 
depending on commodity prices at harvest time or other factors46. It should be also noted that, 
in order to address the concerns related to impacts on local communities and land use rights in 
developing countries, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has adopted in 2012 the 
Guidelines on Responsible Governance of Tenure and in 2014 the Guidelines for Responsible 
Investments  in  Agriculture.  In  developing  countries,  the  multi-stakeholder  EU  sustainability 
certification schemes (e.g. ISCC, RSPO RED, RSB EU RED) cover also social, economic and 
environmental sustainability aspects that go beyond the EU mandatory sustainability criteria. 

45  
46  

IMF, World Economic Outlook: subdued demand – symptoms and remedies. October 2016 
GRAIN report 2016. 

16 

 
 
 
 
                                                            
4. CONCLUSIONS 

The promotion of renewable energy is an essential part of EU energy policy, as recognised in 
Article  194  TFEU,  and  largely  contributes  to  the  implementation  of  the  Energy  Union 
Framework  strategy.  The  new  regulatory  framework  for  after  2020  proposed  by  the 
Commission  as  part  of  the  'Clean  Energy  for  All  Europeans'  package  in  November  2016 
builds  upon  the  experience  accumulated  under  the  existing  Renewable  Energy  Directive.  It 
aims at further Europeanising renewable energy policy and maximising its use in buildings, 
transport and industry sectors. The Commission has proposed reinforced provisions to set the 
conditions  right  for  investments,  including  progressive  cross-border  opening  of  support,  the 
principle  of  non-retroactivity  and  accelerated  administrative  procedures,  as  well  consumers' 
empowerment.  Electricity,  transport  and  heating  and  cooling  sectors  are  all  targeted  with  a 
number of concrete measures, while it is proposed to use 2020 national targets as baseline for 
Member  States'  further  progress  after  2020.  In  relation  to  bioenergy,  the  Commission  has 
proposed to strengthen the EU sustainability framework for bioenergy by extending it to cover 
also biomass and biogas used for heat and power in large energy installations. 

With  a  16%  share  in  final  energy  consumption  in  2014,  the  EU  and  the  vast  majority  of 
Member  States47  are  well  on  track  in  terms  of  renewable  energy  deployment48.  However, 
2015 estimates show that Member States will have to continue their efforts to reach their 2020 
binding  targets,  as  the  trajectory  becomes  steeper.  This  especially  applies  for  France, 
Luxembourg  and  the  Netherlands,  which  will  have  to  substantially  increase  their  shares  in 
2016 in order to keep on track with their respective trajectories. On a more forward-looking 
perspective,  projections  show  that  the  EU  as  a  whole  would  reach  its  20%  target  by  2020. 
However, some Member States such as Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United 
Kingdom might have to reinforce cooperation with other Member States by using cooperation 
mechanisms such as statistical transfers to timely reach their national binding targets. 

Representing around half49 of the final energy consumption at EU level, heating and cooling 
remains the largest sector in terms of energy consumption50. It is also the largest contributor to 
the  renewable  energy  target,  with  half  of  the  renewable  energy  consumption51,  even  if  its 
growth  rate  has  been  slower  than  in  the  electricity  sector.  In  2015,  around  18.1%  of  EU 
heating and cooling was renewable, with biomass representing, by a wide margin, the largest 
contribution. 

The electricity sector has seen the fastest growth in renewable share, which currently reaches 
28.3% of total electricity production. In 2015, the largest contributor to renewable electricity 
remained  hydropower.  The  strongest  performer  in  terms  of  growth  is  onshore  wind.  Solar 
photovoltaic development has been uneven, with a growth peak in 2011 and 2012, but lower 
growth rates each year since. Together, variable renewables52 represent 12% of the EU gross 
electricity generation. 

Transport is the sector which continues to show the slowest growth of renewables, with 0.5 
percentage points on average per year from 2005-2014 and a marked slowdown after 201153. 
Its renewable energy share was 5.9 % in 2014 (and estimated at only 6.0 % in 2015) out of a 

47 Except the Netherlands 
48 As set ut in Annex I of Directive 2009/28/EC 
49 Based on 2015 proxies, Öko Institut. 45% in 2015 based on RES-denominators 
50 In terms of CO2 emissions however, electricity remains a major contirbutor with 41% of EU CO2 emissions 
51 Based on 2015 proxies, Öko Institut. 50% in 2015, excluding multiple counting for transport 
52 Here, wind and solar 
53 Mostly due to changes in accounting compliant biofuels 

17 

 
 
                                                            
sector  specific  target  of  10  %  for  2020.  This  slow  progress  is  due  to  various  difficulties, 
including regulatory uncertainty and a late uptake of advanced biofuels 

On  administrative  barriers,  Member  States  have  made  progress  on  removing  them,  but  this 
progress  have  not  been  uniform  across  the  Union  and  there  is  still  ample  room  for 
improvement,  especially  for  automatically  granting  the  permit  after  the  administrative 
procedure's deadline and for establishing one-stop shops. 

On  biofuel  sustainability,  the  majority  of  biofuels  consumed  in  the  EU  are  produced  within 
the Union from domestic feedstock. No significant direct adverse effects on biodiversity, soil 
and water, food security nor on developing countries have been identified. However, risks of 
indirect  land  use  change  impacts  remain  of  concern.  Modelling  analysis  has  found  risks  of 
indirect  land  use  change  (ILUC)  resulting  from  food  based  biofuels.  This  is  why,  with  the 
adoption of the ILUC Directive, the EU has limited the contribution of these biofuels to the 
10% renewables transport target. Furthermore the Commission has recently made proposals to 
gradually  reduce  the  share  of  food-based  biofuels  after  2020,  while  promoting  their 
progressive replacement through advanced biofuels and renewable electricity.  

In conclusion, the proposal for a recast of the Renewables Directive together with the other 
proposals of the "Clean Energy for all Europeans" package, now under examination of both 
the  European  Parliament  and  Council,  aims  to  tackle  the  above-mentioned  barriers  limiting 
further renewable energy growth, confirming the determination of the European Commission 
to make the European Union the world number one in renewables. 

18