Economic Bulletin. Issue 1 / 2016.
Date: 2016-09-20
Institutions: European Central Bank
Subjects: economic policy, economic situation, euro area, monetary policy, serial publication

Economic Bulletin 

Issue 1 / 2016

30°53%100%3,5E7,5E6EEEE80°6E6EEContents

Update on economic and monetary developments

Summary 

1  External environment 

2  Financial developments 

3  Economic activity 

4  Prices and costs 

5  Money and credit 

Boxes

1 

2 

 What is driving Brazil’s economic downturn? 

 A closer look at differences between industrial gross value  
added and industrial production 

3  Eurosystem publishes more detailed criteria for accepting rating agencies 

article

1 

 Recent developments in the composition and cost  
of bank funding in the euro area 

Statistics 

3

5

7

9

11

13

16

19

23

26

S1

2

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Contents 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Update on economic and monetary  
developments

Summary

Global growth remains modest and uneven. While activity continues to expand at a 
solid pace in advanced economies, developments in emerging market economies 
remain weak overall and more diverse. After a very weak first half of the year in 
2015, global trade is recovering, albeit at a slow pace. Global headline inflation has 
remained low and recent additional declines in oil and other commodity prices will 
further dampen inflationary pressures.

Increased uncertainty related to developments in China and renewed oil price 
declines have led to a sharp correction in global equity markets and renewed 
downward pressures on euro area sovereign bond yields. Corporate and sovereign 
bond yield spreads have widened slightly. The increase in global uncertainty has 
been accompanied by an appreciation of the effective exchange rate of the euro.

The economic recovery in the euro area is continuing, largely on the back of dynamic 
private consumption. More recently, however, the recovery has been partly held 
back by a slowdown in export growth. The latest indicators are consistent with a 
broadly unchanged pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2015. Looking 
ahead, domestic demand should be further supported by the ECB’s monetary policy 
measures and their favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as by the 
earlier progress made with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Moreover, the 
renewed fall in the price of oil should provide additional support for households’ real 
disposable income and corporate profitability and, therefore, private consumption 
and investment. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is becoming slightly 
expansionary, reflecting inter alia measures in support of refugees. However, the 
recovery in the euro area is dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging 
markets, volatile financial markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a 
number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms. The 
risks to the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside and relate in particular 
to the heightened uncertainties regarding developments in the global economy as 
well as to broader geopolitical risks.

Euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.2% in December 2015, compared with 0.1% 
in November. The December outcome was lower than expected, mainly reflecting the 
renewed sharp decline in oil prices, as well as lower food and services price inflation. 
Most measures of underlying inflation continued to be broadly stable, following a 
pick-up in the first half of 2015. Non-energy import prices were still the main source 
of upward price momentum as domestic price pressures remained moderate. On 
the basis of current oil futures prices, which are well below the level observed a few 
weeks ago, the expected path of annual HICP inflation in 2016 is now significantly 
lower compared with the outlook in early December 2015. Inflation rates are currently 
expected to remain very low or to turn negative in the coming months and to pick up 

3

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developments 
only later in 2016. Thereafter, supported by the ECB’s monetary policy measures 
and the economic recovery, inflation rates should continue to recover, although 
risks of second-round effects from the renewed fall in energy price inflation will be 
monitored closely. 

Broad money growth remained robust in November, driven mainly by the low 
opportunity cost of holding the most liquid monetary assets and the impact of the 
ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme. In addition, lending to the euro area 
private sector continued on a path of gradual recovery, supported by easing credit 
standards and increasing loan demand. Nevertheless, the annual growth rate 
of loans to non-financial corporations remains low, as developments in loans to 
enterprises continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit 
risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets.

At its meeting on 21 January 2016, based on its regular economic and monetary 
analyses, and after the recalibration of the ECB’s monetary policy measures in 
December 2015, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates 
unchanged. These rates are expected to remain at present or lower levels for an 
extended period of time. With regard to non-standard monetary policy measures, 
the asset purchases are proceeding smoothly and continue to have a favourable 
impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households. More generally, 
and taking stock of the evidence available at the beginning of 2016, it is clear that 
the monetary policy measures adopted by the Governing Council since mid-2014 
are working. As a result, developments in the real economy, credit provision and 
financing conditions have improved and have strengthened the euro area’s resilience 
to recent global economic shocks. The decisions taken in early December to 
extend the monthly net asset purchases of €60 billion to at least the end of March 
2017, and to reinvest the principal payments on maturing securities for as long as 
necessary, will result in a significant addition of liquidity to the banking system and 
will strengthen the forward guidance on interest rates.

However, at the start of the new year, the Governing Council assessed that downside 
risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market 
economies’ growth prospects, volatility in financial and commodity markets, and 
geopolitical risks. In this environment, euro area inflation dynamics also continue to 
be weaker than expected. Therefore, it will be necessary for the Governing Council 
to review and possibly reconsider the ECB’s monetary policy stance in early March, 
when the new staff macroeconomic projections – also covering the year 2018 – will 
become available. In the meantime, work will be carried out to ensure that all the 
technical conditions are in place to make the full range of policy options available for 
implementation, if needed.

4

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developments1 

External environment

Survey indicators suggest that global growth remained modest and uneven 
at the turn of the year. The global composite output Purchasing Managers’ 
Index (PMI) decreased from 53.6 to 52.9 in December 2015 against the backdrop 
of a slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors (see Chart 1). In 
quarterly terms the global output PMI declined slightly in the fourth quarter relative 
to the previous quarter. Data point to a sustained growth momentum in advanced 
economies, with PMIs increasing in the United Kingdom and Japan, although 
momentum slowed somewhat in the United States. Developments across emerging 
market economies (EMEs) remain weak overall and more diverse, with the latest 
PMI data suggesting some strengthening in China, a deceleration in growth in India 
and Russia, and continued weakness in Brazil in the fourth quarter.

Chart 1
Global PMI

(diffusion index, 50 = no change)

composite output
manufacturing output
composite average 1999-present
manufacturing average 1999-present

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sources: Markit and ECB staff calculations.
Note: The latest observation refers to December 2015.

Global trade has continued to recover, albeit at a 
slow pace. Although global trade in the first half of 
2015 was very weak, it has since improved. The growth 
in the volume of global goods imports weakened slightly 
in October to 1.8% (three-month on three-month), down 
from 2.3% in September. Import growth momentum 
strengthened in advanced economies, but the 
contribution from EMEs decreased, driven principally 
by lower trade in Latin America. However, early monthly 
data at the country level confirm that global import 
growth may have moderated again towards the end of 
last year. The global PMI for new export orders dipped 
slightly in December (to 50.6), but remained in positive 
territory, suggesting continued modest trade growth 
around the turn of the year. 

Global headline inflation has remained low. A less 
negative contribution from energy prices pushed up 
slightly annual consumer price inflation in the OECD 
area to 0.7% in November from 0.6% in the previous 

month. Inflation excluding food and energy remained unchanged at 1.8%. However, 
the overall low global CPI inflation masks considerable differences across countries. 
While headline inflation is low in most advanced economies and also in China, it is 
considerably higher in some large economies, including Russia, Brazil and Turkey. 

Recent additional declines in oil and other commodity prices will further 
dampen inflationary pressures. Against the background of an oversupplied oil 
market and weakening oil demand, Brent crude oil prices have undergone a renewed 
downturn since mid-October 2015, falling to USD 29 per barrel on 20 January 2016. 
On the supply side, OPEC’s December decision to maintain current production levels 
at record rates has fuelled the downward dynamics, while non-OPEC output has 
been more resilient than previously expected, with declining US shale production 
compensated for by oil supply from Canada, Norway and Russia. Looking ahead 
uncertainty remains about the impact of the lifting of sanctions against Iran on 

5

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsglobal oil supply. On the demand side, preliminary estimates showed a steeper than 
previously expected decline in global oil demand growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 
owing to the exceptionally mild winter (in Europe, the United States and Japan) and 
weaker economic sentiment in emerging markets (China, Brazil and Russia). Oil 
market participants continue to expect only a very gradual increase in oil prices in 
the coming years. Non-oil commodity prices have also fallen slightly by 3% since the 
end of November, driven mostly by decreasing food prices (down by 4%).

US activity growth appears to have softened in the fourth quarter, although 
underlying fundamentals remain solid. Following a solid expansion of real GDP 
by an annualised rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2015, economic activity showed 
signs of deceleration in the fourth quarter. Retail sales and vehicle purchases have 
slowed, and indicators also suggest some weakness in the industrial sectors, with 
a decline in the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index. In addition, 
external headwinds, namely modest global growth and the stronger US dollar, 
continue to weigh on exports. However, continued strong improvements in the 
labour market suggest that the underlying strength of the economy persists and that 
weakness in domestic demand should prove largely temporary. Non-farm payrolls 
rose sharply in December 2015, with the unemployment rate at 5.0%. Headline 
inflation remains low. Annual headline CPI inflation rose to 0.5% in November from 
0.2% in October on account of a smaller negative contribution from energy prices. 
Excluding food and energy, inflation edged up slightly to 2.0%, supported by rising 
services prices.

In Japan, momentum in the economy has been relatively subdued. The 
second preliminary release revised real GDP in the third quarter of 2015 higher by 
0.5 percentage point to 0.3% quarter on quarter. However, short-term indicators 
point to relatively modest growth in the final quarter of 2015. Although real exports 
of goods continued to recover in November, declines in retail sales and industrial 
production in November point to weaker domestic momentum. Annual CPI inflation 
remained unchanged at 0.3% in November, but annual CPI inflation excluding food 
and energy rose to 0.9%.

In the United Kingdom, GDP continued to grow at a moderate pace. In the third 
quarter of 2015 real GDP increased by 0.4% quarter on quarter, less than previously 
estimated. Economic growth was driven by robust household consumption, in turn 
supported by the increase in real disposable income, which was driven by low 
energy prices. Investment growth remained positive, albeit decelerating compared 
with the previous quarter, while net exports exerted a drag on growth. Short-term 
indicators, in particular industrial production data and PMI surveys, point towards 
a steady pace of GDP growth in the last quarter of 2015. The unemployment rate 
trended downwards, declining to 5.1% in the three months to November 2015, while 
earnings growth fell to 2.0%, compared with 3.0% in the third quarter of the year. In 
December 2015 annual headline CPI inflation was close to zero (0.2%) on the back 
of low energy and food prices, while inflation excluding food and energy edged up 
to 1.4%.

In China, financial market volatility has led to renewed uncertainty about the 
outlook, although macroeconomic data remain consistent with a gradual 

6

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsslowdown in activity growth. The Chinese stock market dropped sharply in the first 
weeks of January, ahead of the expected expiry of a six-month ban on share sales by 
large shareholders. However, macroeconomic data have been more resilient. China 
reported quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Annual real 
GDP growth in 2015 was 6.9%, close to the government target. Short-term indicators 

Chart 2
Global industrial production growth

(year-on-year percentage changes)

China
Brazil

Russia
OECD countries

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sources: OECD and national sources.
Note: The latest observation refers to December 2015 for China, to November 2015 for 
Brazil and Russia, and to October 2015 for OECD countries.

remain consistent with a gradual slowdown in the 
economy amidst some rebalancing towards services and 
consumption in the face of subdued industrial output. 

Growth momentum remains weak and 
heterogeneous across other EMEs. While activity 
has remained more resilient in commodity-importing 
countries (including India, Turkey and non-euro area 
central and eastern European countries), growth 
remains very weak in commodity-exporting countries. In 
particular, latest short-term indicators suggest that the 
downturn in Brazil has intensified. As Box 1 discusses, 
weak domestic fundamentals and limited support 
from external factors imply that Brazil will remain in 
recession this year. The Russian economy showed 
tentative signs of improvement in the third quarter of 
2015 (see Chart 2) but, given the strong dependence 
on oil, the renewed oil price decline is likely to weigh on 
the short-term outlook.

2 

Financial developments

Chart 3
Euro area and US equity price indices

(1 January 2014 = 100)

EURO STOXX
S&P 500

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

Global equity prices declined significantly amid 
increasing uncertainty related to developments 
in China and a sharp reduction in the oil price. 
The broad EURO STOXX equity price index 
declined by around 16% over the review period from 
2 December 2015 to 20 January 2016 (see Chart 3). 
Somewhat smaller declines were observed in the 
United States, where equity prices, as measured by 
the S&P 500 index, declined by around 12%. Financial 
sector equities in the euro area and the United States 
declined by 18% and 13% respectively, thereby slightly 
underperforming non-financial sector equities.  Measures 
of equity market volatility – an indicator of financial 
market uncertainty – increased significantly.

90
Jan 14

May 14

Sep 14

Jan 15

May 15

Sep 15

Jan 16

Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations.
Note: The latest observation is for 20 January 2016.

The developments in oil and global equity markets 
led to renewed downward pressure on euro area 
sovereign bond yields following the increase at the 

7

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsbeginning of the review period. Sovereign yields increased after the meeting of the 
Governing Council of the ECB in December 2015 and fell back somewhat again as 
global uncertainty increased. Over the review period the GDP-weighted  
ten-year euro area sovereign bond yield increased by around 15 basis points, to 
stand at 1.16% on 20 January. The lower-rated countries recorded the strongest 
increases in general, resulting in a widening of their sovereign yield spread against 
Germany, which was partly related to financial and political developments.

Chart 4
Changes in the exchange rate of the euro

(indicated currency per euro; percentage changes)

since 2 December 2015

since 2 December 2014

EER-38
Chinese renminbi
US dollar
Pound sterling
Swiss franc
Japanese yen
Polish zloty
Czech koruna
Swedish krona
Russian rouble
Turkish lira
South Korean won
Indonesian rupiah
Hungarian forint
Danish krone
Romanian leu
Taiwan dollar
Brazilian real
Indian rupee
Argentine peso
Croatian kuna

-15 -10 -5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Source: ECB.
Notes:  Percentage changes relative to 20 January 2016. EER-38 is the nominal 
effective exchange rate of the euro against the currencies of 38 of the euro area’s most 
important trading partners.

The increase in global uncertainty led to an 
appreciation of the effective exchange rate of the 
euro. The euro appreciated markedly in effective terms 
in the first half of December 2015 as a result of the 
increase in yields following the December Governing 
Council meeting. The effective exchange rate of the 
euro was broadly stable in the period up to  
mid-January, but started to appreciate again thereafter 
amid the increase in global uncertainty. Overall, the 
euro strengthened by 5.3% in trade-weighted terms 
over the review period (see Chart 4). In bilateral terms, 
the euro appreciated against the US dollar, the pound 
sterling, the Chinese renminbi, the Russian rouble 
and the currencies of emerging market economies – 
particularly the Argentine peso following the decision by 
the new Argentine government to lift currency controls. 
The euro also appreciated against the currencies of 
commodity-exporting countries and the currencies of 
central and eastern European countries. By contrast, 
it depreciated against the Japanese yen, which was 
supported by the decline in risk appetite.

The increase in global uncertainty also led to higher corporate bond spreads. 
Spreads increased the most on lower-rated high-yield bonds. However, spreads for 
both investment-grade and high-yield bonds are significantly lower in the euro area 
than in the United States. This can mostly be explained by the very high spread 
levels observed in the energy sector in the United States owing to the low oil prices. 

The EONIA declined over the review period following the Governing Council’s 
decision to cut the deposit facility rate by 0.10% to -0.30% and the continued 
increase in excess liquidity. The EONIA has remained in a range between 
-22 and -25 basis points through most of the review period. At the end of the year it 
temporarily rose to about -13 basis points owing to increased demand for liquidity. 
During the review period, excess liquidity rose by €62.5 billion to €639.9 billion, 
supported by ongoing Eurosystem purchases within the expanded asset purchase 
programme, as well as an allotment of €18.3 billion in the sixth targeted longer-term 
refinancing operation on 11 December 2015.

8

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developments3 

Economic activity

The economic recovery in the euro area is continuing, largely on the back 
of developments in private consumption. Real GDP rose by 0.3%, quarter on 
quarter, in the third quarter of 2015, following a rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter 
(see Chart 5).1 The most recent economic indicators point to a continuation of this 
growth trend in the fourth quarter of 2015. Although output has now been rising for 
two and a half years, euro area real GDP still remains slightly below the  
pre-crisis peak recorded in the first quarter of 2008. 

Chart 5
Euro area real GDP, the ESI and the composite PMI

(quarter-on-quarter percentage growth; index; diffusion index)

real GDP (right-hand scale)
ESI (left-hand scale)
composite PMI (left-hand scale)

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

-3.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, Markit and ECB.
Notes: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is normalised with the mean and 
standard deviation of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The latest observations 
are for the third quarter of 2015 for real GDP and for December 2015 for the ESI and 
the PMI.

Private consumption continues to be the main 
driver of the ongoing recovery. Consumer spending 
has benefited from rising real disposable income among 
households, which in turn primarily reflects lower oil 
prices and rising employment. In 2015, oil prices fell 
by slightly more than 35% in euro terms compared 
with the previous year, while euro area employment 
rose by 1% (based on data up to the third quarter). In 
addition to lower oil prices, a broad range of factors, 
indicative of a strengthened domestic economy, are 
supporting private consumption. Households’ balance 
sheets have gradually become less constrained and 
consumer confidence has remained strong. As for the 
near-term outlook, recent data on retail trade and new 
passenger car registrations signal some weakening in 
consumer spending. This slowdown is assessed to be 
temporary, however, as it may reflect the dampening 
impact on retail trade from the mild weather conditions, 
as well as a negative contribution from French retail 
sales following the terrorist attacks of November 2015 

in Paris. Indeed, survey data on consumer confidence and households’ financial 
situations suggest continued positive developments in private consumption.

By contrast, investment growth has been weak in 2015, although there are signs 
of improving conditions for non-construction investment. Investment conditions 
improved in the last quarter of 2015. According to the European Commission, 
confidence rose in the capital goods sector and low demand became less of a 
constraining factor for production. Furthermore, available country data and data on 
capital goods and construction production point to modest growth during the final 
quarter of 2015. Looking further ahead, a cyclical recovery in investment is expected, 
supported by strengthening demand, improving profit margins and diminishing spare 
capacity. Financing conditions are also improving. Firms’ recourse to external financing 
has picked up and the most recent survey on the access to finance of enterprises 
(SAFE) and euro area bank lending survey (BLS) show that financial conditions should 
act as less of a drag on investment. Nevertheless, the need for further corporate 

1 

In Eurostat’s second release of the euro area national accounts, growth was revised upwards by  
0.1 percentage point for both the first and second quarters of 2015.

9

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsdeleveraging in some countries and investors’ reduced long-term growth expectations 
could serve to moderate the recovery in investment.

Growth in euro area exports continues to remain subdued overall. According to 
monthly trade data for October and November, exports started to recover towards 
the end of 2015, standing in these two months 0.4% above the average level in the 
third quarter. Export growth was likely driven by strengthened growth momentum in 
advanced economies, with still negative contributions from some emerging market 
economies. More timely indicators, such as surveys, signal slight improvements in 
foreign demand and increases in export orders outside the euro area in the near 
term. Moreover, the depreciation in the euro effective exchange rate in the first half 
of 2015 continues to support exports.

Overall, the latest indicators are consistent with economic growth in the final 
quarter of 2015, at around the same rate as in the third quarter. While declining by 
0.7%, month on month, in November (following a rise of 0.8% in October), industrial 
production (excluding construction) still stood 0.1% above its average level in the 
third quarter of 2015, when it rose by 0.2%, quarter on quarter (Box 2 takes a closer 
look at differences between industrial production and value added in industry). In 
addition, both the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and 
the composite output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved between the third 
and fourth quarter of last year (see Chart 5). Both indicators rose in December, thus 
remaining at levels above their respective long-term averages.

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Chart 6
Euro area employment, PMI employment expectations 
and unemployment

(quarter-on-quarter percentage growth; diffusion index; percentage of the labour force)

employment (left-hand scale)
PMI employment expectations (left-hand scale)
unemployment rate (right-hand scale)

The labour market situation is continuing to 
improve gradually. Employment increased further 
by 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 
2015, having now risen for nine consecutive quarters 
(see Chart 6). As a result, employment stood 1.1% 
above the level recorded one year earlier, the highest 
annual rise observed since the second quarter of 
2008. The unemployment rate for the euro area, which 
started to decline in mid-2013, fell further in November 
to stand at 10.5%. More timely information gained from 
survey results points to further gradual labour market 
improvements in the period ahead.

13

12

11

10

9

8

Sources: Eurostat, Markit and ECB. 
Notes: The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expressed as a deviation from 50 
divided by 10. The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2015 for employment, 
December 2015 for the PMI and November 2015 for unemployment.

2012

7

6

5

2015

2013

2014

Looking ahead, the economic recovery is expected 
to continue. Domestic demand should be further 
supported by the monetary policy measures and their 
favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as 
by previous progress made with fiscal consolidation 
and structural reforms. Moreover, the renewed fall in oil 
prices should provide additional support for households’ 
real disposable income and corporate profitability, and 
thus for private consumption and investment. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro 
area is becoming slightly expansionary, reflecting, inter alia, measures in support of 
refugees. However, the economic recovery in the euro area continues to be hampered 
by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, volatile financial markets, the 

10

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsnecessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of 
implementation of structural reforms. The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain 
on the downside and relate, in particular, to the heightened uncertainties regarding 
developments in the global economy, as well as to broader geopolitical risks. The 
results of the latest round of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted 
in early January, show that private sector GDP growth forecasts remain broadly 
unchanged compared with the previous round conducted in early October  
(http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/prices/indic/forecast/html/index.en.html).

4 

Prices and costs

Headline inflation came under renewed downward pressure due to further oil 
price declines. Positive base effects, due to falling energy prices at the end of 2014, 
were anticipated to have a strong impact on headline inflation.2 These were almost offset 
by the effect of further recent declines in the oil price and by lower food price inflation, 
with the mild weather contributing to weaker prices for unprocessed food. As a result, 
headline inflation increased only slightly from 0.1% in November to 0.2% in December.

Chart 7
Contribution of components to euro area headline 
HICP inflation

(annual percentage changes; percentage point contributions)

HICP
food
energy

non-energy industrial goods
services

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.
Note: The latest observation is for December 2015.

Most measures of underlying inflation are 
perceptibly higher than at the turn of 2014/15, but 
have not picked up further since the summer of 
2015. For example, HICP inflation excluding food and 
energy was unchanged at 0.9% in December, after 
continuing to move within the range of 0.9% and 1.1% 
since August. The profiles of most other measures of 
underlying inflation have been broadly similar. Services 
inflation decreased in December for the second 
consecutive month, partly due to the indirect effects 
of oil price declines on prices for transport-related 
services. Non-energy industrial goods inflation was 
unchanged at 0.5%, after recording a broad-based 
increase in November to its highest level since  
mid-2013. This stability masked the continued increase 
in durable goods inflation to 0.9% in December, 
consistent with the impact of the weaker euro exchange 
rate and the rise in consumption of durable goods. 
This increase was offset by a decline in the annual 
rate of change in prices for semi-durables, in particular 
clothing, possibly due to the mild weather. 

Import prices remain the main source of upward pipeline pressure. The annual 
rate of growth in import prices for non-food consumer goods rebounded to 3.9% in 
November, from 3.1% in October. However, domestic price pressures remained weak, 
reflecting declining commodity input costs and continued moderate wage increases. The 
annual rate of change in producer prices for domestic sales of non-food consumer goods 

2 

See the box entitled “The role of base effects in the projected path of HICP inflation”, Economic 
Bulletin, Issue 8, ECB, 2015.

11

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentswas unchanged at 0.2% in November, and has remained within the range of 0.0% and 
0.2% since April. Earlier in the pricing chain, the annual rate of change in producer prices 
for intermediate goods continued its decline to -2.0% in November, which was the lowest 
seen since December 2009. Survey data on input and output prices up to December 
also point to continued weak domestic pipeline pressures. 

Wage growth has remained moderate, while profit margin growth has 
strengthened. The annual growth in compensation per employee declined to 1.1% 
in the third quarter of 2015, from 1.3% in the second quarter. Given that the decline 
in productivity was more modest, the result was a slight decrease in the growth rate 
of unit labour costs. Wage growth is likely being held back by a range of factors, 
including continued elevated levels of slack in the labour market, relatively weak 
productivity growth, and ongoing effects from labour market reforms implemented 
in past years in a number of euro area countries. The GDP deflator, which provides 
a broad summary measure of domestic price pressures, remained broadly stable in 
annual terms in the third quarter due to the fact that the decline in the annual rate 
of change in unit labour costs was compensated for by a noticeable increase in the 
annual growth rate of profit margins. Looking through individual quarterly outturns, the 
annual rate of growth in the GDP deflator has gradually increased since mid-2014.

Looking ahead, on the basis of current oil futures prices, the expected path 
of annual HICP inflation in 2016 is now significantly lower than that forecast 
in the December 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the 
euro area. Annual HICP inflation is expected to remain at very low or negative levels 
in the coming months and to pick up only later in 2016, supported by the impact of 
monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery.

Indicators of inflation expectations have fallen since the beginning of 
December against the backdrop of declining oil prices. Following the 

Chart 8
Survey-based measures of inflation expectations

(annual percentage changes)

SPF Q1 2016
SPF Q4 2015
Consensus Economics forecasts
December 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections
HICP

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sources: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Economics and 
ECB calculations. 
Notes: Realised HICP data are included up to December 2015. Consensus Economics 
forecasts are based on the January 2016 forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and on the 
October 2015 long-term forecasts for 2018 and 2020.

Governing Council meeting in December, market-
based indicators of inflation expectations declined 
markedly as markets reversed the strong gains 
made in the days leading up to the meeting. The 
renewed sharp decline in oil prices in January led 
to further falls, with most measures returning to the 
levels observed at the beginning of October. More 
specifically, the five-year inflation-linked swap rate five 
years ahead declined from 1.79% to 1.57% between 
2 December 2015 and 20 January 2016. Despite low 
realised inflation and declining market-based inflation 
indicators, the deflation risk observed in the market 
continues to be very limited and significantly below 
the levels seen at the end of 2014 and the beginning 
of 2015. According to the latest ECB Survey of 
Professional Forecasters (SPF), the expected five-
year ahead inflation rate edged downwards from 1.9% 
to 1.8% (see Chart 8). The decline in expectations has 
been more evident over shorter horizons, reflecting the 
impact of the renewed decline in oil prices.

12

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsTurning to house price developments, annual growth in the ECB’s residential 
property price indicator for the euro area has increased further.  In the 
third quarter of 2015 the annual rate of change was 1.5%, up from 1.1% in the 
previous two quarters, suggesting that the recovery is gaining some momentum. It 
appears to be relatively broad-based across euro area countries but there remains 
considerable heterogeneity in the magnitudes of growth. The pick-up in house price 
growth in the euro area as a whole is consistent with improving household income 
and employment conditions, favourable financing conditions and the correction of 
previous overvaluations of house prices.

5 

Money and credit

Broad money growth remained robust. The annual growth rate of M3 stayed solid 
at 5.1% in November, with base effects mainly accounting for the slight decrease 
from the 5.3% registered for October (see Chart 9). Money growth was once again 
concentrated in the most liquid components of the narrow monetary aggregate 
M1, the annual growth rate of which decreased in November while remaining at 
high levels. Overall, recent developments in narrow money are consistent with a 
continuation of the economic recovery in the euro area.

Chart 9
M3 and loans to the private sector

(annual rate of growth and annualised six-month growth rate)

M3 (annual growth rate)
M3 (annualised six-month growth rate)
loans to the private sector (annual growth rate)
loans to the private sector (annualised six-month growth rate)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: ECB.
Note: The latest observation is for November 2015. 

Overnight deposits continued to contribute strongly 
to M3 growth: the main factors behind this growth 
were the low opportunity costs of holding the most 
liquid components of money and the impact of the 
ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme (APP). 
By contrast, short-term deposits other than overnight 
deposits continued to contract, albeit to a lesser 
extent than in previous months. The growth rate of 
marketable instruments (i.e. M3 minus M2), which has 
a small weight in M3, remained positive, reflecting the 
recovery in money market fund shares/units observed 
since mid-2014 and the robust growth of monetary 
financial institution (MFI) debt securities in the money-
holding sector with a maturity of up to two years. The 
said recovery in money market fund shares/units 
confirms market resilience to the negative interest rate 
environment.

Broad money growth was again mainly driven by 
domestic sources. From a counterpart perspective, 
the largest source of money creation in November was the bond purchases made 
by the Eurosystem in the context of the public sector purchase programme (PSPP). 
In addition, money creation continued to be supported by credit from MFIs to the 
euro area private sector and the reduction in the MFI longer-term financial liabilities 
(excluding capital and reserves) of the money-holding sector. This reflects the flatness 
of the yield curve, linked to the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures, which 
has reduced incentives to hold longer-term assets. It also highlights the Eurosystem’s 

13

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentspurchases of covered bonds under the third covered bond purchase programme 
(CBPP3), which reduce the availability of such securities for the money-holding 
sector. Furthermore, the Eurosystem’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations 
(TLTROs), an alternative source of longer-term funding, have been curbing banks’ 
issuance activities. The contribution to annual M3 growth made by the MFI sector’s 
net external asset position remained negative. This reflects capital outflows from the 
euro area and is consistent with an ongoing portfolio rebalancing in favour of non-
euro area instruments (there has been a lower appetite for euro area assets on the 
part of foreign investors). Euro area government bonds sold by non-residents under 
the PSPP account for the portfolio rebalancing.

Lending to the euro area private sector continued on a path of gradual 
recovery.3 The annual growth rate of MFI loans to the private sector (adjusted 
for sales and securitisation) increased further in November (see Chart 9), with 
both loans to non-financial corporations (NFCs) and households accounting for 
the progress. Although the annual growth rate of loans to NFCs remained weak, 
it has recovered substantially from the trough of the first quarter of 2014. The 
ECB’s monetary policy measures and further easing of bank credit standards have 
supported this development. Despite these positive signs, the ongoing consolidation 
of bank balance sheets and persistently high levels of non-performing loans in some 
jurisdictions continue to hamper loan growth.

Chart 10
Composite bank lending rates for NFCs and 
households

(percentages per annum)

non-financial corporations
households for house purchase

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: ECB. 
Notes: The indicator for the composite bank lending rates is calculated by aggregating 
short and long-term rates using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes. 
The latest observation is for November 2015.

Bank lending rates for NFCs and households 
remained broadly stable in November 
(see Chart 10). Despite recent signs of stabilisation, 
composite lending rates for NFCs and households have 
declined by significantly more than market reference 
rates since the ECB’s credit easing package was 
announced in June 2014. This development is related 
to receding fragmentation in euro area financial markets 
and the improvement in the pass-through of monetary 
policy measures to bank lending rates. Furthermore, the 
decline in composite lending rates has been supported 
by a decrease in banks’ composite funding costs, which 
stand at historically low levels. Between May 2014 and 
November 2015, the composite lending rate on loans 
to euro area NFCs fell by more than 80 basis points 
to 2.12%. And, over the same period, the composite 
lending rate on loans to households for house purchase 
decreased by more than 60 basis points, reaching 
2.27% in November. Moreover, the spread between 
interest rates charged on very small loans (loans of  

up to €0.25 million) and those charged on large loans (loans of above €1 million) in 
the euro area decreased further in November. This indicates that small and  

3  On 21 September 2015, the ECB published new data on loans adjusted for sales and securitisation, 

based on an enhanced adjustment method. For more details, see the box entitled “New data on loans 
to the private sector adjusted for sales and securitisation” in Issue 7 / 2015 of the Economic Bulletin.

14

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsmedium-sized enterprises have benefited to a larger extent than large firms from the 
recent lending rate developments.

The January 2016 euro area bank lending survey (BLS) suggests that changes 
in credit standards and loan demand continue to support the recovery in loan 
growth (see survey at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/surveys/lend/html/
index.en.html). In the fourth quarter of 2015, banks further eased (in net terms) 
credit standards for loans to NFCs. There was also a net easing of credit standards 
for loans to households for house purchase, marking a reversal from previous 
tightening. Increased competition remained the main factor driving less stringent 
credit standards. Net loan demand by NFCs and households rose considerably on 
the back of the low general level of interest rates. Financing needs related to working 
capital and fixed investment, consumer confidence and housing market prospects 
were additional factors behind stronger loan demand. 

NFCs’ net issuance of debt securities rose modestly in November 2015. The 
turnaround in net issuance was supported by the observed temporary decline in 
the cost of market-based debt financing during November. By contrast, the ongoing 
strong growth of retained earnings has most likely been a dampening factor in recent 
months. Note that, in the third quarter of 2015, retained earnings still featured a 
double-digit annual growth rate.

The overall nominal cost of external financing for NFCs is estimated to have 
increased moderately in December 2015 and in the first half of January 2016. 
This rise is mainly explained by the higher cost of equity financing (there was a 
visible decrease in share prices), with the cost of debt financing remaining almost 
unchanged. In December 2015 and mid-January 2016 the cost of equity and market-
based debt financing was, on average, around 40 and 20 basis points higher, 
respectively, than in November 2015.

15

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Update on economic and monetary developmentsBox 1 
What is driving Brazil’s economic 
downturn?

Following rapid economic growth in the years preceding the recent global 
financial crisis, Brazil was in a strong position to weather the great recession. 
Both the commodity price cycle and abundant capital inflows played a role in this 
improved economic performance. The improvement was also the result of the 
profound changes in macroeconomic policy management introduced a decade 
previously, with the end of fiscal dominance and hyperinflation in 1994. However, 
Brazil’s economic situation has deteriorated significantly in recent years. The 
economy entered into recession in 2014 and the situation worsened in 2015, with 
real GDP likely to have declined by 3%, while inflation has remained close to 10%. 
This box outlines the main factors underlying the economic slump in Brazil.

Chart a
GDP growth and major export commodity prices

(left-hand scale: index 2000=100; right-hand scale: annual percentage changes)

real GDP growth (right-hand scale)
soybeans (left-hand scale)
sugar (left-hand scale)
iron ore (left-hand scale)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Sources: World Bank, CBOT – CME Group and IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de 
Geograﬁ a e Estatistica.

The downturn of the non-energy commodity 
price cycle revealed the underlying structural 
weaknesses in the Brazilian economy. In the first 
decade of the century, Brazil benefitted from strong 
demand – particularly from China – for some of its key 
export commodities (e.g. iron ore, soybeans and raw 
sugar). Supported by positive terms of trade effects, 
Brazil’s annual GDP growth rate averaged 3.1% 
over this period. Since the fall in commodity prices 
in 2011 (see Chart A), these terms of trade effects 
have reversed. As a result, GDP growth has been 
consistently lower than predicted, while structural 
weaknesses underlying the economy have resurfaced. 
These weaknesses include a burdensome tax system, 
a sizeable informal sector, poor infrastructure, limited 
competition, the high costs of starting a business and 
high tariff rates.

moreover, imbalances rose amid expansionary 
policies and strong capital inflows. Around the turn 

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

of the decade, Brazil continued to receive strong capital inflows, which amounted 
annually to around 9% of GDP. While these inflows kept sovereign and corporate 
spreads low, they fuelled a strong appreciation of the Brazilian real that hurt price 
competitiveness. Many companies, including large oil companies such as state-
owned Petrobras, took advantage of the loose financing conditions to borrow 
on international markets to finance long-term investments. At the same time, 
monetary and fiscal policy was expansionary. The official interest rate was cut to a 
historic low of 7.25% in October 2012 (see Chart B), while subsidised public sector 
lending, coupled with a rise in tax exemptions to revive business confidence, 
sharply increased fiscal deficits. Given the lack of structural reforms, however, 

16

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 1these measures led to only a moderate and temporary pick-up in GDP growth in 
2012-13, while also contributing to rising inflation and a widening of the current 
account deficit (see Chart C).

Chart B
Inflation rate, overnight rate and real effective 
exchange rate

Chart C
Total public sector balance and current account 
balance (relative to GDP)

(left-hand scale: index 2006=100; right-hand scale: annual percentage changes)

(percent of GDP, four-quarter moving averages)

inflation rate (right-hand scale)
overnight rate (right-hand scale)
REER (left-hand scale)

current account balance
consolidated public sector nominal deficit

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Sources: World Bank, CBOT – CME Group and IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de 
Geograﬁ a e Estatistica. 
Notes: The SELIC rate is the Brazilian Central Bank’s overnight rate. REER stands for 
real effective exchange rate against 13 main trading partners; increasing values reﬂ ect 
a depreciation of the currency.

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Source: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geograﬁ a e Estatistica. 

The shift in global financial market sentiment amid the US Federal reserve’s 
announcement that it would wind down asset purchases (the “taper tantrum”) 
in may 2013 had a significant impact on the Brazilian economy. Global market 
sentiment suddenly turned against vulnerable emerging market economies with 
high external and fiscal imbalances, such as Brazil. Despite indications of an 
impending recession, monetary and fiscal policies were tightened in an attempt to 
restore macroeconomic credibility. In order to limit capital outflows and support the 
exchange rate, the Banco Central do Brasil raised its official interest rate to 14.25% 
in July 2015. On the fiscal front, limits on subsidised lending programs were cut and 
price subsidies were reduced. At the same time, however, the deterioration in global 
financial market conditions and the rise in interest rates entailed a surge in interest 
payments  on public borrowing (to around 9% of GDP), which, in turn, raised gross 
public debt to historical highs (63% of GDP). As the country was unable to generate 
the fiscal surplus needed to stabilise debt with a sufficiently credible fiscal plan, two 
rating agencies downgraded Brazil from its investment grade rating for the first time 
in seven years. Notwithstanding the contraction of Brazilian GDP, inflation surged to 
over 10% in the last two months of 2015, owing to an adjustment of regulated prices 
and the sharp depreciation of the currency.

model estimates suggest that the recent downturn in Brazil is, to a large 
extent, driven by a combination of domestic factors and lower commodity 
prices. According to the historical decomposition from a structural Bayesian VAR 

17

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 1Chart D
Historical shock decomposition of annual real GDP 
growth

(left-hand scale: median estimates – deviation from long-run mean; right-hand scale: 
annual percentage changes)

external (left-hand scale)
commodities (left-hand scale)
domestic (left-hand scale)
actual (right-hand scale)

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sources: IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geograﬁ a e Estatistica and ECB staff 
calculations.
Note: Long-run mean refers to the period from the ﬁ rst quarter of 2000 to the second 
quarter of 2015.

model1 (see Chart D), the most significant factors in 
explaining the decline in Brazilian GDP since mid-2014 
have been adverse commodity price developments and 
shocks to domestic factors, including domestic demand, 
monetary policy and financing costs. External shocks 
(defined as global uncertainty shocks and shocks to 
global financing conditions and foreign demand), on the 
other hand, have been less significant as a cause of the 
recent slowdown. In particular, the prices of iron ore and 
raw sugar – which account for 13% and 5% respectively 
of total exports – have been falling since 2011, while the 
price of oil – which accounts for 7% of total exports – 
has fallen since 2014. As Brazil is still a net oil importer, 
the main channel through which lower oil prices affect 
GDP is likely to be investment, rather than purely 
the terms of trade, as is the case for net oil exporting 
countries. Total investment has declined by 6% on 
average since early 2014, partly due to developments 
at Petrobras, the public oil producer, which accounts 
for 10% of total Brazilian investment and almost 2% 
of GDP. The company had to cut investment by 33% 
in both 2014 and 2015 to adjust to lower oil prices 

and also in response to a widespread corruption case, triggering confidence effects 
throughout the economy. The direct and indirect effects of the decline in investment 
by Petrobras have been estimated by Brazil’s Ministry of Finance to have subtracted 
around 2 percentage points from GDP growth in 2015. 

Looking ahead, the risks facing Brazil remain on the downside amid uncertainties on 
fiscal policy and political difficulties which might further reduce confidence.

1 

The model used is a structural Bayesian vector autoregression using quarterly seasonally adjusted 
GDP data. The model is estimated from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2015 and 
the variables included relate to external conditions, commodity prices, and domestic conditions. In 
particular, the VIX, three-month treasury bills, foreign demand (trade-weighted imports), the oil price, 
non-energy commodity prices, the EMBIG – Brazil, real GDP growth and the SELIC target rate are 
included. Structural shock identification is done by imposing sign restrictions on impulse response 
functions.

18

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 1Box 2  
A closer look at differences between 
industrial gross value added  
and industrial production

Industrial gross value added and industrial production are both very 
informative indicators of developments in industrial activity. although 
conceptually similar, there are a number of differences between the two.1 
Looking at the data available for the latest two quarters, the weakness in euro area 
industrial production excluding construction in the second quarter of 2015 was not 
matched by weakness in the corresponding value added (quarterly growth rates 
were -0.1% versus 0.4%). In the third quarter of 2015, however, industrial production 
growth provided a more positive picture (growth of 0.2% versus 0.0% for value 
added). Against this background, this box takes a closer look at the differences 
between these two indicators for the euro area and explains the methodological 
differences that give rise to them. Industrial production is a short-term statistic 
that aims to estimate value added on a monthly basis in order to provide a timely 
measure of industrial activity. In practice, however, it is difficult to collect value 
added data on a monthly basis, which means that the monthly change in industrial 
production is typically derived from other sources, including deflated turnover, 
physical production data, labour input and intermediate consumption of raw materials 
and energy. Gross value added2, on the other hand, is a quarterly national accounts 
indicator and is measured by subtracting intermediate consumption from output. 
Industrial production therefore only partly describes the development of industrial 
value added in terms of volume over a longer period, as the link between industrial 
production and value added may be affected by changes in input ratios and 
structures of production.

movements in euro area industrial value added and production (excluding 
construction) differ in terms of absolute levels and quarterly growth rates. 
Chart A plots both indicators of euro area industrial activity in level terms. It shows 
that for euro area industry excluding construction, the level of value added has, 
for the most part, been higher than that of industrial production since 2000. This 
notwithstanding, both indicators tend to show similar cyclical movements in terms 
of quarter-on-quarter growth (see Chart B), but there have been marked differences 
of up to 2 percentage points, positive or negative, in some quarters since 2000. The 

1 

For a more detailed description of these differences, see Lucke, D. and Weiß, J.-P., “International 
comparison of industrial development in the European context – the problems”, Economic 
Bulletin, Vol. 39, Issue 7, German Institute for Economic Research, 2002, pp. 215-220, and 
“Overview of Industrial Statistics at the OECD”, available at http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/
overviewofindustrialstatisticsattheoecd.htm.

2  Gross value added is one of the main indicators in national accounts and, together with taxes less 

subsidies on products, it comprises gross domestic product (GDP), which on the income side is equal 
to the sum of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, and gross 
operating surplus.

19

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 2Chart a
Level of euro area industrial value added and 
production (excluding construction)

Chart B
Growth in euro area industrial value added and 
production (excluding construction)

(2000=100; gross value added: calendar and seasonally adjusted chain-linked 
volumes; industrial production index: quarterly average of working day and seasonally 
adjusted monthly data)

(quarter-on-quarter growth rates; gross value added: calendar and seasonally adjusted 
chain-linked volumes; industrial production index: quarterly average of working day and 
seasonally adjusted monthly data; percentage points)

industrial value added excluding construction
industrial production excluding construction

industrial value added excluding construction
(left-hand scale)
industrial production excluding construction 
(left-hand scale)
difference between value added and industrial production growth 
(right-hand scale)

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.

difference between the two growth rates has been 0.1 percentage point on average 
since 2000. Looking at growth differences in absolute terms, the average as well as 
standard deviation has been 0.4 percentage point since 2000. This outcome implies 
that the differences in growth rates seen in the second and third quarter of 2015 
were in a range one could expect.

Differences in the movements of the two indicators also occur at the euro area 
country level, but to a varying degree. Among the four largest euro area countries, 
the difference between the quarter-on-quarter growth in industrial value added and 
industrial production (excluding construction) since 2000 has been greatest for Spain 
(0.4 percentage point), France (0.3) and Italy (0.2), but small for Germany (0.03). 
For five euro area countries this difference in growth over the same period has been 
negative, most markedly for Ireland and Luxembourg (both -0.6 percentage point). 
It should be borne in mind, however, that these results are also dependent on the 
period under investigation. For example, for Germany – where more historical data 
are available – the slight positive bias in growth rates for the period from 2000 turns 
slightly negative if the observation period starts in 1991. 

In addition to conceptual factors, a number of other factors contribute to the 
differences between the two indicators,3 such as seasonal adjustment on an 
infra-annual basis, as value added is adjusted at a quarterly frequency and 

3 

See the box entitled “Differences between industrial production and value added data in industry in 
the first quarter of 2004”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, August 2004. It examined the difference between 
industrial production and value added in the first quarter of 2004 (industrial production growth was 
0.2 percentage point compared with value added growth of 0.9 percentage point; according to the 
revised data as of the time of writing, these figures are 0.2 percentage point and 0.8 percentage 
point respectively). The difference was attributed to seasonal adjustment and geographical coverage. 
Geographical coverage has improved considerably since 2004. Where country data is missing, 
estimates are used for the euro area aggregate.

20

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 2Chart C
The effects of seasonal adjustment on data measuring 
growth in euro area industrial production (excluding 
construction)

(quarter-on-quarter growth rates; percentage points)

seasonal adjustment at quarterly frequency
(left-hand scale)
seasonal adjustment at monthly frequency
(left-hand scale)
difference between seasonal adjustment at quarterly and monthly frequency
(right-hand scale)

industrial production at a monthly frequency. In 
order to quantify this factor, industrial production data 
were seasonally adjusted across euro area countries at 
a quarterly frequency. The outcome, which depends on 
the parameters applied for the seasonal filters, shows 
that quarterly growth rates can differ substantially 
depending on whether the seasonal adjustment is 
monthly or quarterly (see Chart C). Using data that 
are seasonally adjusted on a quarterly rather than a 
monthly basis, the average absolute difference between 
the growth rates of euro area industrial production is 
shown to have been 0.5 percentage point since 2000. 
On average, however, the impact of the other factors 
remains sizeable.

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

2000

2002

2004

2006

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.

2008

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

2010

2014

2012

Prices are treated differently in the two indicators. 
Gross value added is compiled using basic prices and 
does not include taxes (less subsidies) on products, 
whereas industrial production is at factor cost. The 
difference between value added at basic prices and at 
factor cost is other taxes (less subsidies) on production, 
figures for which are not available in volume terms at a 
quarterly frequency. In addition, whereas gross value added volumes are calculated 
using annual chain-linking, only a few countries so far apply this for industrial 
production.

Different economic activities are included in the two indicators. Value added 
includes water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 
(Section E4 ), whereas industrial production does not. The share of this activity in 
industrial value added excluding construction since 2000 has varied between 4.2% in 
2007 and 5.0% in 2009. Chain-linked volume value added series for this sector are 
only published at an annual frequency and are rather acyclical. Calculations breaking 
down these annual data into quarterly data indicate that the quarter-on-quarter 
difference in the growth rate of industrial value added and production remains, on 
average, at a similar magnitude. Nevertheless, for specific quarters, the impact of 
Section E is found to be sizeable, i.e. up to 2.2 percentage points during the Great 
Recession and up to 0.8 percentage point during “normal” times. 

a further source of difference between the two indicators is that industrial 
production typically covers firms above a certain threshold (in terms of 
turnover or number of employees), with thresholds varying across countries. 
National accounts attempt to provide a more complete picture by using data from a 
variety of alternative sources. 

4 

These activities form Section E of the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European 
Community (NACE Rev. 2).

21

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 2all in all, despite the close link between value added and industrial production, 
the differences between the two indicators reflect all of the above-mentioned 
factors to some degree, although their relative importance is difficult to 
assess. From an economic perspective, it is useful to monitor both indicators to 
assess the economic status of industrial activity. Further harmonisation between 
national accounts and short-term statistics, as well as between national practices for 
seasonal adjustment, would help to reduce these differences.

22

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 2Box 3  
Eurosystem publishes more detailed 
criteria for accepting rating agencies 

The Eurosystem has published more detailed criteria that rating agencies must 
meet to be part of its framework for mitigating financial risk in monetary policy 
operations. The Eurosystem credit assessment framework or ECAF defines the 
minimum credit quality requirements that ensure the Eurosystem accepts only assets 
with high credit standards as collateral. The Eurosystem has a legal obligation to 
lend money only against adequate collateral.1 The ECAF also forms the basis of 
minimum credit quality requirements in the context of outright purchases.

rating agencies are one source of information in the framework.2 When 
rating agencies are accepted under the framework as “external credit assessment 
institutions” or ECAIs, their ratings are used mainly to assess the credit quality of 
marketable assets (traded debt instruments, in particular bonds). Rating agencies 
can also be accepted under the framework as providers of rating tools. In addition, 
the Eurosystem uses information from in-house credit assessment systems and 
counterparties’ internal ratings-based systems. The last three types of credit 
assessment system are used mainly to assess non-marketable collateral such 
as credit claims. To ensure that the information provided by all four sources is 
consistent, accurate and comparable, the Eurosystem has established acceptance 
criteria for each credit assessment source as well as a harmonised rating scale, 
against which it regularly monitors the performance of all accepted systems. These 
procedures aim to protect the Eurosystem against financial risks as well as to ensure 
a level playing field among the credit rating providers.

In December 2015 the governing Council decided to publish further details 
on the criteria for accepting a rating agency into the ECaF.3 The published 
criteria refer to the acceptance of rating agencies as external credit assessment 
institutions. An agency must, at the time of its application, be providing minimum 
coverage of assets eligible for use in monetary policy operations in terms of rated 
assets4, rated issuers and the volume of assets rated. The rating agency’s coverage 
must be diversified across the eligible asset classes and across euro area countries. 

1 

2 

3 

4 

See Article 18.1 of the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central 
Bank.

See, for example, the Box entitled “Eurosystem credit assessment framework for monetary policy 
operations”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, April 2014; The financial risk management of the Eurosystem’s 
monetary policy operations, ECB, July 2015; or the information provided on the ECB’s website at  
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/assets/risk/ecaf/html/index.en.html

See Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest 
rates), 22 January 2016, on the ECB’s website. The detailed requirements are available on the ECB’s 
website at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/coll/risk/ecaf/html/index.en.html

Assets must be rated in accordance with the ECAF priority rules defined in Article 84 of the Guideline 
of the ECB of 19 December 2014 on the implementation of the Eurosystem monetary policy framework 
(ECB/2014/60). 

23

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 3For example, it must rate at least three of the four eligible non-public sector asset 
classes (covered bonds, uncovered bonds, corporate bonds and asset-backed 
securities) in two-thirds of the countries. In each asset class it must provide ratings 
for at least 10% of the eligible assets, 10% of the issuers and 20% of the nominal 
volume. Moreover, in the three years prior to its application the rating agency must 
have complied with these criteria at a level of at least 80%. 

The requirements are designed to ensure that rating agencies have broad 
credit risk expertise and a track record over time. For efficiency reasons and 
in order to ensure that only rating agencies with established and broad credit risk 
expertise are accepted, the requirements take into account market acceptance 
of rating agencies’ ratings, the credit risk interlinkages5 among the eligible asset 
classes, and the geographical concentration of eligible collateral in the euro area. 
At the same time, the thresholds are not so restrictive as to preclude the acceptance 
of new rating agencies: a rating agency assessing around 100 issuers, for example, 
may comply with the requirements, depending on the geographical and asset-
class focus of its business.6 Furthermore, the set of coverage criteria as a whole 
is designed to ensure that the Eurosystem has information to ascertain whether a 
rating agency has an adequate performance track record and to map its ratings to 
the harmonised rating scale. In addition, the 80% historical coverage requirement 
over the three years preceding an application allows new rating agencies to benefit 
from a gradual increase in their European coverage in order to apply to be accepted 
into the ECAF once they can demonstrate well-established broad credit risk 
expertise and proven market acceptance.

In the acceptance procedure, the Eurosystem investigates all additional 
information relevant for risk protection and the efficient implementation of the 
ECaF.7 Compliance with the minimum coverage criteria serves only as a prerequisite 
for the initiation of an acceptance procedure. In view of the importance of the credit 
quality information for asset eligibility and valuation haircuts, the Eurosystem forms 
its decision on whether to accept a rating agency on the basis of a comprehensive 
due diligence assessment. Rating agencies must meet a number of information, 
regulatory and operational requirements. To be part of the framework they must, for 
example, be supervised by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). 
Furthermore, information on their credit ratings needed to monitor rating quality must 
be available to the Eurosystem. For efficiency purposes and in view of the resource-
intensive due diligence process for each individual rating agency, the Eurosystem 
requires the minimum coverage criteria to be met before it considers accepting a 
new rating agency. 

In addition, the Eurosystem is reinforcing its due diligence to avoid 
mechanistic reliance on external ratings. It is carrying out additional work to 
better understand the ratings, rating processes and methodologies of the rating 

5 

For example, rating structured finance products requires a sound credit risk assessment of the 
counterparties involved.

6  One credit rating agency with a market share of around 1% (according to calculations of the European 

Securities and Markets Authority) currently complies with the ECAF coverage criteria.

7 

For the general acceptance criteria for external credit assessment institutions, which have been public 
since the introduction of the ECAF, see Article 120 of the Guideline ECB/2014/60. 

24

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 3agencies accepted in the ECAF. This is in line with various initiatives by international 
authorities aimed at reducing over-reliance on external ratings in legal, regulatory 
and other public frameworks.8 In parallel, the Eurosystem has enhanced its internal 
credit assessment capabilities, for example by increasing the number of in-house 
credit assessment systems for non-financial corporations9 and by establishing a due 
diligence process in the context of the asset-backed securities and covered bond 
purchase programmes.

8 

9 

See, for example, the roadmap for reducing reliance on credit rating agencies’ ratings, as published 
by the G20’s Financial Stability Board, at http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/wp-content/
uploads/r_101027.pdf?page_moved=1

See, for example, Thematic Review on FSB Principles for Reducing Reliance on CRA Ratings, 
Financial Stability Board, May 2014, at http://www.fsb.org/2014/05/r_140512/

25

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Box 3Article 
Recent developments in the 
composition and cost of bank funding  
in the euro area

Changes in the composition and cost of bank funding have important implications 
for the provision of credit and, consequently, for economic output and inflation. 
Banks’ funding costs are affected by monetary policy, but the transmission of policy 
depends on many factors, including the strength of banks’ balance sheets and the 
macroeconomic environment. Therefore, developments in bank funding can be 
different across euro area banks and countries. This article gives an overview of 
recent developments in the composition and cost of bank funding, including capital, 
and shows that they varied across the euro area over the period of the financial 
crisis, which had an impact on the transmission of monetary policy. The interaction 
between monetary policy measures (both standard and non-standard) and banks’ 
funding conditions is also discussed. 

1 

Introduction

During the financial crisis, a large degree of heterogeneity in the cost of bank 
credit was linked to a divergence in funding conditions across euro area 
banks. Understanding banks’ funding conditions is vital for the analysis of credit 
provision to the real economy and, consequently, of output and inflation, particularly 
in the light of the fact that funding cost dynamics diverged from monetary policy rates 
during the crisis.1 In general, banks seek funding from retail and wholesale sources. 
Retail funding, i.e. deposits from the private sector, is generally the dominant source 
of funding, and deposits from the non-financial private sector tend to be less volatile 
than wholesale funding sources, particularly when protected by deposit guarantee 
schemes. However, the importance of such sources for a bank’s overall funding 
depends on institutional features such as the bank’s size or business model. For 
small euro area banks, in particular, retail deposits account for a considerably 
larger share of overall funding than wholesale sources.2 Wholesale funding includes 
interbank liabilities, which are used for short-term liquidity management, and the 
issuance of debt securities. Finally, banks also have access to central bank liquidity 
and raise capital, normally in the form of equity.

1 

2 

For a discussion, see Illes, A., Lombardi, M.J. and Mizen, P., “Why did bank lending rates diverge from 
policy rates after the financial crisis?”, BIS Working Papers, No 486, February 2015.

See “Report on financial structures”, ECB, October 2015.

26

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Articlea well-functioning banking sector is essential for the effective transmission 
of monetary policy. This applies in particular to the euro area, where banks play a 
dominant role in providing external financing to the non-financial private sector. The 
outbreak of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 affected all segments of 
the financial system, especially the banking sector, which hampered the transmission 
of the ECB’s monetary policy measures to bank funding and, ultimately, to bank 
lending conditions. Moreover, bank funding conditions were heterogeneous across 
euro area countries in an environment of sluggish economic activity, high sovereign 
debt and concerns about weak banks. While differences in funding costs are to be 
expected, high levels of uncertainty led to excessive risk premia in some jurisdictions 
and there were periods when banks’ access to wholesale and, to a lesser extent, 
retail funding was severely hampered. At the same time, the ECB’s non-standard 
monetary policy measures (such as the policy of full allotment of the liquidity 
demanded by banks at a fixed rate and the two three-year longer-term refinancing 
operations (LTROs) in late 2011 and early 2012) acted as a strong backstop and 
prevented a disorderly and forced deleveraging that would have had a considerable 
negative impact on the overall economy. Since then, steps towards banking union, 
the ECB’s credit easing package announced in mid-2014, and the expanded asset 
purchase programme (APP) announced in early 2015 have led to a significant 
improvement in bank funding conditions, which have become more homogeneous 
across countries. This has helped to weaken the bank-sovereign nexus, thereby 
considerably reducing impairments in the transmission mechanism.

The funding and capital structures of banks are of interest for a number of 
reasons. The determinants of banks’ funding and capital structures are distinct 
from those of non-financial corporations.3 Banks are subject to capital regulation 
because of the significant effect they can have on financial stability and economic 
growth: given that they are largely funded by deposits, a significant share of which 
are covered by guarantee schemes, banks are required to hold minimum amounts 
of capital to absorb losses and mitigate moral hazard concerns.4 While this implies 
that the relative cost of equity and debt funding is not the main determinant of banks’ 
capital structures, it does not mean that their cost is irrelevant. In fact, the cost 
of capital is an important factor in banks’ portfolio allocation decisions, including 
lending activity. Recent developments in the European supervisory, regulatory and 
resolution framework – including macroprudential capital buffers, total loss-absorbing 
capacity (TLAC) requirements and the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive 
(BRRD) – help to rectify incentives that are misaligned because of the expectation of 
public support (the too-big-to-fail problem). The effect of these measures on banks’ 
cost of funding is a priori unclear, as the direct effect of a reduction in implicit public 
sector support is at least partially offset by decreased risk-taking by banks. While 
the transition to the revised regulatory framework may constrain lending in the short 
term, it is expected to increase economic welfare in the medium to long term, as the 
negative externalities associated with systemic crises are contained.5

3 

4 

5 

See Berger, A., Herring, R. and Szego, G., “The role of capital in financial institutions”, Journal of 
Banking and Finance, Vol. 19, Issues 3-4, June 1995, pp. 393-430.

See Gropp, R. and Heider, F., “The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure”, Review of Finance, 
Vol. 14, 2010, pp. 587-622.

See the speech by ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio, “Financial regulation and the global 
recovery”, at the Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference, Washington D.C., 16 April 2015.

27

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleThis article is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the main developments in 
the composition of banks’ funding and capital structures and discusses the monetary 
policy measures that have had an impact on funding quantities, Section 3 discusses 
developments in the cost of funding and capital and the impact of certain monetary 
policy measures on these costs, and Section 4 concludes.

2 

The composition of funding and the impact of monetary 
policy

The structure of banks’ funding and capital is integral to the overall stability 
and cost of funding. During the crisis, there were changes not only in banks’ overall 
funding levels, but also in the structure of their funding. This section discusses some 
of the main changes in euro area banks’ funding over the past decade and compares 
developments in vulnerable and less vulnerable countries.6 Banks are defined here 
as credit institutions and other monetary financial institutions (MFIs) that are resident 
in the euro area. The impact of monetary policy measures on funding quantities and 
composition is also discussed.

The composition of euro area banks’ funding has fluctuated over the past 
decade, reflecting changes in economic conditions, uncertainty and the 
monetary policy response to the crisis. Banks’ overall funding grew in line with 
the expansion in their assets until the escalation of the financial crisis following the 
collapse of Lehman Brothers and the resulting increase in uncertainty in interbank 
markets. Chart 1 shows annual flows in the main liabilities of MFIs, including capital. 
Funding flows increased steadily from 2005 until the end of 2007, particularly 
via wholesale funding sources, which include external (non-euro area) liabilities, 
interbank funding and shorter-term debt securities and tend to be more volatile than 
retail deposit funding. While growth in these wholesale funding sources facilitated 
the fast expansion of banks’ balance sheets in the years leading up to the crisis, the 
outflows and swift withdrawals observed at the start of the crisis made a significant 
contribution to bank funding pressures and a reduction in liquidity. Increased reliance 
on these funding sources is likely to have introduced a pro-cyclical bias in financial 
intermediation.7 

Deposits from resident non-mFIs, and deposits from the non-financial private 
sector in particular, are the most stable and single largest component of 
funding for euro area banks. While the composition of these deposits varies across 
countries and bank types, they are the predominant source of funding for banks in 
both vulnerable and less vulnerable countries.8 Retail deposits tend to be a more 

6 

7 

Throughout this article, the term “vulnerable countries” refers to countries more directly affected by 
the crisis, namely Ireland, Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Portugal and Slovenia, while the term “less 
vulnerable countries” refers to the remaining euro area countries.

For a discussion, see Shin, H.S. and Shin, K., “Procyclicality and Monetary Aggregates”, NBER 
Working Papers, No 16836, February 2011.

8  Non-MFI deposits include deposits from households, non-financial corporations, general government, 

insurance corporations, pension funds and other financial institutions. 

28

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 1
Developments in funding of MFIs other than the Eurosystem 

(EUR billions; annual flows by quarter)

deposits − non-MFIs
debt securities
external liabilities

a) Euro area

capital and reserves
deposits − MFIs

b) Vulnerable countries

c ) Less vulnerable countries

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

-1,000

-1,500

-2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

-1,000

1

2

3

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

-1,000

-1,500

1

2

3

1

2

3

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations. 
Notes: The chart highlights three periods: 1. the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 2. the announcement of OMTs, and 3. the introduction of the credit easing package. The analysis is 
based on aggregate MFI data: deposits from other MFIs include operations between banks belonging to the same economic group. The components constitute MFIs’ main liabilities 
and exclude money market fund shares/units and remaining liabilities, which are composed mostly of derivatives. Data are annual ﬂ ows starting in the ﬁ rst quarter of 2005 and 
ending in the third quarter of 2015. Deposits of MFIs include both interbank funding and funding from the Eurosystem.

stable source of funding than wholesale sources:9 since the liquidity services banks 
provide to depositors can incur transaction and switching costs, retail deposits are 
less susceptible to unanticipated withdrawals.10 Moreover, as withdrawals are based 
on individual liquidity needs they tend to be more predictable, on the basis of the law 
of large numbers. In addition, deposits are generally insured up to a limit and are 
less subject to adverse shocks related to uncertainty. 

as the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, 
deposit flows fell, but remained robust relative to the other, more volatile 
sources of funding in both vulnerable and less vulnerable countries. 
Since changes in deposit levels are associated with changes in income and 
general economic conditions, the reduction in flows reflected, at least in part, the 
deterioration in the macroeconomic environment across the euro area.11 As the 
sovereign debt and financial market stress intensified, deposit outflows became 
more pronounced in vulnerable countries, driven largely by a repatriation of funds 
by non-domestic depositors (both from other euro area countries and from outside 
the euro area). After reaching a peak in mid-2012, deposit outflows from vulnerable 
countries subsided and fragmentation in funding across the euro area receded. 
This can be explained largely by the ECB’s announcement of Outright Monetary 
Transactions (OMTs) and the decision taken at the June 2012 euro area summit by 

9 

For a discussion on the stable nature of retail deposits relative to wholesale funding, see Huang,  
R. and Ratnovski, L., “The dark side of bank wholesale funding”, Working Paper Series, No 1223,  
ECB, July 2010.

10  See Song, F. and Thakor, A., “Relationship Banking, Fragility, and the Asset-Liability Matching 

Problem”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 20(6), 2007, pp. 2129-2177.

11  See Cohen, B. and Kaufman, G., “Factors Determining Bank Deposit Growth by State: An Empirical 

Analysis”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 20, Issue 1, 1965, pp. 59-70.

29

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleEuropean leaders to deepen European integration in accordance with the long-term 
objective of creating a banking, fiscal and political union, as well as the decision to 
launch the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM).12 While deposit flows in vulnerable 
countries recovered following these announcements, they remained weak relative 
to pre-crisis levels and then began to decline in an environment of low inflation and 
subdued income growth. Following the introduction by the ECB of further credit 
easing measures in the middle of 2014 and the announcement of the expanded APP 
at the beginning of 2015, deposit flows improved in an environment of increased 
central bank liquidity. 

The sources of wholesale market funding that had increased in the years 
preceding the collapse of Lehman Brothers decreased rapidly at the start of 
the crisis, with debt securities issuance and interbank activity in particular 
slumping (see Chart 1). In vulnerable countries, as interbank funding deteriorated, 
banks continued to issue securities. A proportion of these were covered by government 
guarantees, whose aim was to support bank funding over this period.13 However, 
issuance diminished as uncertainty and fears regarding the solvency of sovereigns 
increased. While market risks receded in the middle of 2012, there was a second 
stage of negative net issuance of debt securities by banks at this time, partly reflecting 
the correction of excessive leverage of the financial and non-financial sectors, as well 
as a move towards a more comprehensive regulatory and supervisory framework. 
Moreover, debt securities funding was replaced by Eurosystem liquidity because 
the cost of the latter was more favourable. Overall deposit flows from MFIs, which 
include interbank and Eurosystem funding, decreased as the financial crisis intensified 
(see Chart 1). Crucially, however, the composition of the deposits changed as more 
volatile interbank liquidity was partially replaced by central bank liquidity (see Chart 2). 
Interbank liquidity grew in the years before the financial crisis, reflecting increased 
international interlinkages among banks as cross-border lending increased over time. 
With the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the use of interbank deposits as a short-term 
liquidity tool decreased in line with a need to deleverage and amid general uncertainty 
about the creditworthiness of counterparties.14 

The financial market stress not only resulted in a shift towards Eurosystem 
liquidity and away from interbank liquidity, particularly in vulnerable countries 
(see Chart 2), there was also a change in the composition of the Eurosystem 
liquidity, largely owing to the monetary policy response to the crisis.15 At the 
start of the crisis the ECB switched to a fixed rate full allotment tender procedure 

12  See the presentation by ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio, “Fragmentation and rebalancing in the 

euro area”, Joint European Commission-ECB Conference on Financial Integration, Brussels,  
25 April 2013.

13  See the box entitled “The funding of euro area MFIs through the issuance of debt securities”, Monthly 
Bulletin, ECB, August 2010, the article entitled “Monetary analysis in an environment of financial 
turmoil”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, November 2009 and the box entitled “How are government measures 
to support the financial system reflected on the balance sheets of euro area credit institutions?”, 
Monthly Bulletin, ECB, April 2009.

14  For a structural model of the money market, where informational asymmetries and concerns about the 
solvency of specific banks can lead to the breakdown of interbank trading, see Heider, F., Hoerova, 
M. and Holthausen, C., “Liquidity hoarding and interbank market spreads: the role of counterparty risk”, 
Working Paper Series, No 1126, ECB, December 2009. 

15  For details, see Eser, F., Amaro, M., Iacobelli, S. and Rubens, M., “The use of the Eurosystem’s 

monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009”, Occasional Paper Series, No 135, 
ECB, August 2012.

30

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 2
Breakdown of MFI deposits at MFIs other than the Eurosystem

(EUR billions; monthly outstanding amounts)

interbank 
Eurosystem 

a) Euro area

b) Vulnerable countries

c) Less vulnerable countries

7,500

6,500

5,500

4,500

3,500

2,500

1,500

500

2,500

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,700

1,500

1,300

1,100

900

700

500

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Source: ECB.
Note: The series for the Eurosystem comprises its lending to euro area credit institutions related to monetary policy operations denominated in euro and other claims on euro area 
credit institutions denominated in euro.

whereby, as long as banks had adequate collateral, their liquidity demands were 
fully satisfied at a rate determined by the Governing Council, which provided 
certainty and stability to the banking sector.16 Moreover, the maturity of the liquidity 
was extended by means of LTROs.17 As the sovereign debt tensions intensified 
and concerns about bank solvency increased, the ECB announced two three-year 
LTROs, the first of which took place at the end of 2011 and the second at the start 
of 2012. The share of outstanding Eurosystem liquidity in banks’ funding increased 
substantially following these operations, reaching its highest level around the 
middle of 2012. There is evidence that these operations bolstered the supply of 
bank credit and, consequently, output and inflation over the crisis.18 As part of a 
credit easing package introduced in June 2014, the ECB also announced a series 
of targeted LTROs (TLTROs), providing liquidity with a maturity of up to four years 
and linked to banks’ lending volumes, in order to enhance the functioning of the 
monetary policy transmission mechanism by supporting the provision of credit to 
the real economy.19 The weighted average maturity of bank borrowing from the 
Eurosystem increased from around 130 days before the first TLTRO was conducted 
to around 800 days after the settlement of the fifth TLTRO in September 2015.20 In 

16  See Giannone, D., Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L., “Non-standard monetary policy measures and 

monetary developments,” Working Paper Series, No 1290, ECB, January 2011, and Lenza, M., Pill, H. 
and Reichlin, L., “Monetary policy in exceptional times”, Economic Policy, Vol. 25, Issue 62, 2010, pp. 
295-339.

17  For details, see Eser, F., Carmona Amaro, M., Iacobelli, S. and Rubens, M., “The use of the 

Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009”, Occasional Paper 
Series, No 135, ECB, August 2012.

18  See Darracq-Pariès, M. and De Santis, R., “A non-standard monetary policy shock: the ECB’s 3-Year 

LTROs and the shift in credit supply”, Working Paper Series, No 1508, ECB, January 2013.

19  See the press release on further details of the targeted longer-term refinancing operations published by 

the ECB on 3 July 2014.

20  This illustrative calculation assumes that all TLTROs are repaid on their final maturity date in 

September 2018 and are not subject to voluntary or mandatory early repayment. 

31

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 3
Use of collateral

(EUR billions after valuation and haircuts)

central government securities
regional government securities
uncovered bank bonds
covered bank bonds
corporate bonds
asset-backed securities
other marketable assets
non-marketable assets*
credit claims*
fixed-term and cash deposits*

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Q1

2012
Q3

2013
Q1

2013
Q3

2014
Q1

2014
Q3

2015
Q1

2015
Q3

Source: ECB.
Notes: Averages of month-end data over each period.
* Since the ﬁ rst quarter of 2013 the category “non-marketable assets” has been split 
into two categories: “ﬁ xed-term and cash deposits” and “credit claims”. 

the July 2015 euro area bank lending survey, banks 
reported that the TLTROs had improved and were 
likely to further improve their liquidity position, market 
financing conditions and profitability, and that they 
had been and would be used as a substitute for other 
funding sources, mainly other Eurosystem liquidity 
operations, maturing debt and interbank lending.21 The 
Eurosystem also changed the collateral framework 
during the crisis, mainly by expanding the list of assets 
eligible as collateral in monetary policy operations 
and by lowering the rating required on assets.22 These 
changes were essential for the functioning of the 
banking system, particularly when stress in sovereign 
markets led to rating downgrades. They ensured that 
solvent banks could still access liquidity, in order to 
prevent an escalation of the crisis.23 During the crisis, 
banks used their highest quality collateral for direct 
repo transactions in the wholesale markets, while non-
marketable collateral was increasingly posted with the 
Eurosystem (see Chart 3).

During the crisis, in addition to the decline in the 
overall level of interbank liquidity, there was a 
change in its composition, reflecting perceptions 
of increased counterparty risk. There was a 

considerable move from unsecured to secured lending, particularly from 2008 
onwards (see Chart 4), as well as a substantial adjustment in activity towards 
domestic counterparties and away from counterparties from other euro area 
countries.24 Concerns about counterparty creditworthiness resulted in increased use 
of central counterparties, which facilitate clearing and settlement in money markets 
by acting as the direct counterparty for both lender and borrower, thereby assuming 
the risk of the borrower defaulting.25 

External liabilities increased substantially in the years preceding the crisis 
and facilitated the growth in banks’ balance sheets. However, in the wake of 
the Lehman Brothers collapse there was a swift contraction in external liabilities, 
partly owing to asymmetric information and a sudden rise in risk aversion among 

21  See https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/pdf/blssurvey_201507.pdf

22  For details on the changes in the collateral framework, see the article entitled “The Eurosystem 

collateral framework throughout the crisis”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, July 2013.

23  See Wolff, G., “Eurosystem collateral policy and framework: Was it unduly changed?” Bruegel Policy 

Contribution, Issue 14, November 2014.

24  For detailed developments in euro area money markets, see “Euro money market survey”, ECB, 

September 2015.

25  For more information on interbank funding via central counterparties, see the article entitled “The 
interplay of financial intermediaries and its impact on monetary analysis”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, 
January 2012, and the box entitled “The adjustment of monetary statistics for repurchase agreement 
transactions with central counterparties”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, September 2012.

32

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 4
Euro area money market volumes

(annual indices, 2005=100)

unsecured
secured

200

150

100

50

0

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Source: ECB.

international investors.26 The growth in external 
liabilities in the lead-up to the crisis stemmed from 
deposits of non-euro area residents and holdings by 
non-residents of shorter-term debt securities issued by 
euro area banks, and largely reflected the expansion 
of cross-border interbank liquidity (see Chart 1). This 
facilitated the growth in banks’ balance sheets, as 
deep and liquid cross-border financial markets eased 
quantitative constraints on their liquidity management. 
However, at the outbreak of the crisis, cross-border 
funding was withdrawn quickly, which increased banks’ 
exposure to adverse global funding pressures.27 For 
vulnerable countries, external liability flows have 
remained broadly negative since the onset of the 
crisis. For less vulnerable countries, annual flows have 
increased recently, and have been generally positive 
since the ECB’s announcement of additional monetary 
policy easing measures in the middle of 2014. 

The adverse changes in prices and credit losses associated with the crisis led 
to impairments in banks’ capital positions, which, in conjunction with funding 

Chart 5
Capital and reserves of euro area MFIs other than the 
Eurosystem

(percentages of total assets)

euro area
vulnerable countries
less vulnerable countries

12

10

8

6

4
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Source: ECB.
Note: Total assets, capital and reserves were derived via notional stocks in order to 
avoid reclassiﬁ cations, revaluations and changes in the composition of the euro area 
impacting on this measure.

pressures, often necessitated deleveraging and 
changes in banks’ liabilities, such as increased 
capital issuance. Chart 5 shows that capital as a 
percentage of total assets was relatively stable in the 
pre-crisis period. The subsequent increase in the ratio 
was particularly pronounced for banks in vulnerable 
countries, where levels of assets decreased and levels 
of capital increased in response not only to regulatory 
requirements but also to pressure from markets to 
hold larger discretionary buffers against losses. Over 
this period, in addition to the capital raised in private 
sector markets, a substantial amount of capital was 
also obtained through government capital injections.28 
The Capital Requirements Directive and Regulation 
(CRD IV/CRR), which came into force in January 
2014, increased both the quality and the amount of 
capital that banks must hold for prudential purposes. 
In addition, new European legislation has set the stage 
for the creation of a banking union and addressed gaps 
in the capital framework that were highlighted by the 
crisis.

26  See Forster, K., Vasardani, M. and Ca’ Zorzi, M., “Euro area cross-border financial flows and the global 

financial crisis”, Occasional Paper Series, No 126, ECB, July 2011.

27  See the article entitled “The supply of money – bank behaviour and the implications for monetary 

analysis”, Monthly Bulletin, ECB, October 2011.

28  For an overview of government measures to support the banking system, see the article entitled “The 

fiscal impact of financial support during the crisis”, Economic Bulletin, ECB, Issue 6, 2015.

33

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleTable
Structure of main liabilities of euro area MFIs other 
than the Eurosystem
(percentages of main liabilities)

Euro area

Vulnerable 
countries

Less vulnerable 
countries

Jan. 
2005

Sep. 
2015

Jan. 
2005

Sep. 
2015

Jan. 
2005

Sep. 
2015

Deposits – non-MFIs

Debt securities

Capital

External liabilities

Interbank liabilities

Eurosystem liabilities

35

18

6

15

23

2

43

14

9

13

17

3

Total (EUR trillions)

19.2

26.8

39

15

8

16

20

1

5

47

12

13

10

13

6

34

20

6

15

24

2

42

15

8

15

19

1

8.1

14.3

18.8

Source: ECB.
Notes: The main liabilities consist of total liabilities excluding remaining liabilities, 
and shares/units issued by money market funds. Remaining liabilities consist of 
volatile components that are separate from the core activities of banks, including in 
particular (negatively-valued) ﬁ nancial derivatives, for which there are some variations 
in accounting and statistical treatment over the period under review and across 
jurisdictions.

over the past decade the funding structure of euro 
area banks has been altered by changes in market 
risk, the economic environment and monetary 
policy measures: there is now a greater reliance on 
more stable funding relative to volatile funding.29 
The table shows that MFIs’ increased reliance on 
deposit funding and decreased reliance on debt 
securities and external liabilities is common to both 
vulnerable and less vulnerable countries. The table 
also shows the breakdown in MFI deposits between 
interbank and Eurosystem liquidity, illustrating the fact 
that while the decrease in interbank liquidity has been 
a general phenomenon across the euro area, it has 
been greatest in vulnerable countries. Reliance on 
central bank liquidity grew between January 2005 and 
September 2015 in vulnerable countries, in contrast to 
the situation in less vulnerable countries. The nature 
of interbank liquidity has also changed from unsecured 

to secured (see Chart 4), and there has been a reduction in the reliance on cross-
border activities, including with non-euro area counterparties (reflected in the 
reduced relevance of external liabilities). Vulnerable countries in particular now have 
a substantially larger share of capital in total funding. While this measure of capital 
differs from the regulatory measure, its increase follows a general improvement in 
solvency and leverage ratios.30 Overall, these changes indicate a move towards a 
business model with a greater reliance on more stable funding sources.31

The structure of banks’ balance sheets and funding will continue to be 
affected by the economic and policy environment, and in particular by the 
expanded aPP, which will inject further liquidity into the banking system. The 
expanded APP, which comprises two private sector asset purchase programmes 
(the asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP) and the third covered 
bond purchase programme (CBPP3)) and the public sector purchase programme 
(PSPP), aims to ease financing conditions and bring the path of inflation back in 
line with price stability.32 The APP has had a substantial impact on banks’ balance 
sheets: as the Eurosystem pays for the assets it purchases by supplying reserves, 
purchases are always settled through banks regardless of who the ultimate seller is. 
In terms of funding, increases in reserves following the introduction of the expanded 

29  For a more detailed overview of bank funding trends in the euro area following the crisis, see Van 

Rixtel, A. and Gasperini, G., “Financial crises and bank funding: recent experience in the euro area”, 
BIS Working Papers, No 406, March 2013.

30  The statistical definition of capital and reserves includes equity capital; non-distributed benefits or 
funds; and specific and general provisions against loans, securities and other types of assets (the 
recording of which may follow national accounting rules). See “Manual on MFI balance sheet statistics”, 
ECB, April 2012.

31  See “Report on financial structures”, ECB, October 2015.

32  Purchases under the expanded APP amount to €60 billion per month and are intended to run until 

the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a 
sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with its aim of achieving inflation rates 
below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. For more details, see  
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html.

34

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 6
Movements in the balance sheet of MFIs other than the Eurosystem that correspond 
to the change in reserve holdings between end-February and end-September 2015

(EUR billions; non-seasonally adjusted)

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

outstanding
amount of
claims
on the
Eurosystem
(February
2015)

borrowing
from
Eurosystem

wholesale
funding (net)

deposit
funding

capital and
reserves

credit to
private
sector

credit to
government

net external
assets

other

outstanding
amount of
claims
on the
Eurosystem
(September
2015)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.
Notes: Increases in net asset positions reduce claims on the Eurosystem; increases in net liability positions increase claims on the 
Eurosystem. “Wholesale funding (net)” refers to issuance of debt securities net of holdings of MFI debt securities, and borrowing from 
MFIs other than the Eurosystem net of deposits with MFIs other than the Eurosystem.

APP have so far been reflected largely in increases in deposits (see Chart 6), which 
partly reflect banks’ intermediation of bond sales to the Eurosystem by euro area 
non-banks. The sizeable decline in net external assets reflects the intermediation 
of sales by non-euro area residents. Credit to governments has declined, which, 

Chart 7
Impact of the APP on euro area banks’ profitability and 
capital position, as reported in the April and October 
2015 bank lending surveys

(net percentages of respondents)

net interest margin
capital gains/losses

capital ratio
profitability

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

April

October

April

October

April

October

euro area

vulnerable countries

less vulnerable countries

Source: ECB.
Notes: Impact over the past six months. The net percentages are deﬁ ned as the 
difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding 
“increased/improved considerably” and “increased/improved somewhat” and the sum 
of the percentages of banks responding “decreased/deteriorated somewhat” and 
“decreased/deteriorated considerably” to the corresponding question in the April and 
October 2015 bank lending surveys. The results shown are calculated as a percentage 
of the number of banks that did not reply “not applicable”.

at least partly, reflects sales of securities to the 
Eurosystem from banks’ own portfolios and contributes 
to the increase in reserves. Chart 6 also shows an 
increase in credit to the private sector, part of which will 
have contributed to the above-mentioned increase in 
deposits. 

according to the april and october 2015 bank 
lending surveys, the contribution of the aPP to euro 
area banks’ profitability and solvency positions has 
been positive overall, even though the effects are 
varied and differ across countries (see Chart 7). 
Although the APP has led to capital gains associated 
with the valuation of securities held by banks, its effect 
on net interest income is a priori unclear. On the one 
hand, the compression of yields and the flattening of 
the yield curve have led to lower interest income. This is 
likely to translate into lower unit margins, since liabilities 
tend to have shorter maturities than assets and are 
less responsive to decreasing interest rates, particularly 
when they are at very low levels. Furthermore, the 
APP generates excess liquidity which, if deposited with 
the Eurosystem, is remunerated at a negative rate. 
On the other hand, these effects are at least partly 

35

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Articleoffset by the increased intermediation activity and credit quality stemming from the 
programme’s positive impact on output. The APP has made a modest contribution 
to bank profitability in the euro area as a whole, but its impact has been positive 
for vulnerable countries in particular. For the euro area aggregate, the estimated 
negative effects on net interest income have so far been outweighed by the positive 
effects from capital gains and improved credit quality against the background of the 
APP’s positive impact on economic activity. The effect on the capital ratio has also 
been positive, although the effects have diminished since the initial announcement 
and implementation of the programme.

3 

The cost of funding and the effects of monetary policy

as the financial crisis escalated, stress in financial markets caused the cost 
of funding for many euro area banks to increase. Uncertainty regarding the 
health of certain banking markets led not only to outflows, but also to increases in 
risk premia on the funds available to banks. Wholesale funding sources became 
either unavailable or prohibitively expensive for many banks in vulnerable countries, 
leading to an increase in recourse to central bank operations, as outlined in 
Section 2. The observed market fragmentation reflected high uncertainty and 
risk aversion and was at times greater than would be expected given the actual 
underlying risks. Since the degree of dispersion in lending rates and heterogeneity 
in the transmission of monetary policy were salient features of the crisis, this section 
uses data at both the country and the bank level to explore movements in the level 
and dispersion of the different funding elements over time. These data contain 
detailed information on quantities of deposits held by the non-financial private 
sector, debt securities issued by banks and capital, as well as prices of deposits and 
securities and an estimate of the cost of equity. 

The cost of deposits across euro area countries can vary for a number of 
reasons, such as differences in maturity or market structure and variation 
in credit risk and in institutional factors, including regulation and taxation.33 
Despite these differences, the transmission of monetary policy must be smooth 
across euro area countries and banks in the long run. Uncertainty and stress in the 
financial markets during the crisis meant that credit risk concerns fuelled financial 
market fragmentation and hindered transmission as dispersion in pricing behaviour 
across banks increased in relation to the perceived interaction with sovereign credit 
risk in their country of residence.34

Developments in deposit rates have broadly followed monetary policy rates, 
albeit with an incomplete pass-through. As the interest rate on the ECB’s main 
refinancing operations (MROs) was cut from 4.25% at the end of September 2008 
to 1.00% in May 2009, deposit rates in the euro area also fell, although to a lesser 

33  See “Differences in MFI interest rates across euro area countries”, ECB, September 2006.

34  See Darracq-Pariès, M., Moccero, D., Krylova, E. and Marchini, C., “The retail bank interest rate  

pass-through: the case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis”, Occasional 
Paper Series, No 155, ECB, August 2014.

36

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 8
Composite euro area bank deposit rates for the non-
financial private sector

(percentages per annum)

euro area
vulnerable countries

less vulnerable countries
MRO rate

5

4

3

2

1

0
2007

2009

2011

Source: ECB.
Note: Composite rates are computed as averages of new business rates for different 
maturities, weighted by outstanding amounts.

extent (see Chart 8). In October 2008 they stood at 
around 2.95%, and reached a trough of around 1.0% 
at the beginning of 2010. From the middle of 2010, 
deposit rates started increasing gradually and, following 
two policy rate increases in the middle of 2011, stood 
at around 1.45% at the end of 2011. Monetary policy 
then resumed an easing cycle, whereby the MRO rate 
was cut incrementally from 1.50% in November 2011 to 
0.05% in September 2014. Deposit rates fell over this 
period, and the average composite rate currently stands 
at around 0.4%. Moreover, the dispersion of deposit 
rates has narrowed somewhat, as they are close to the 
zero lower bound, particularly for shorter maturities. 
However, the number of banks with negative deposit 
rates for any segment remains small (see Chart 10).

2013

2015

Before the crisis deposit rates were lower overall 
in vulnerable countries than in less vulnerable 
countries. This is largely explained by the difference in 
the maturity of the deposits (see Chart 9). Particularly 
in vulnerable countries, overnight deposits made up a 
significant share of bank deposits from the non-financial sector. Since the crisis, the 
share of overnight deposits has increased in both vulnerable and less vulnerable 
countries against the background of lower interest rates. However, the increase 
in the weight of overnight deposits started later in vulnerable countries, against 
a background of hampered access to wholesale funding markets. The share of 
long-term deposits has declined somewhat in the euro area as a whole, driven by 
developments in less vulnerable countries, but it remains considerably higher than in 
vulnerable countries. 

Chart 9
Breakdown of non-financial private sector deposits by maturity

(EUR billions)

total
overnight deposits

other short-term deposits
long-term deposits

a) Euro area

b) Vulnerable countries

c) Less vulnerable countries

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

2009

2011

2013

2015

0
2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0
2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2007

Source: ECB.

37

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 10
Distribution of euro area bank deposit rates for the non-financial private sector

(percentages per annum)

Sep. 2015 (median = 0.24)
June 2012 (median = 1.15)
Sep. 2008 (median = 2.86)

a) Vulnerable countries

Sep. 2015 (median = 0.23)
June 2012 (median = 0.88)
Sep. 2008 (median = 3.58)

b) Less vulnerable countries

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0

MRO
Sep. 2015

MRO
Sep. 2008

MRO
June 2012

2

4

6

8

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0

MRO
Sep. 2015

MRO
June 2012

MRO
Sep. 2008

2

4

6

8

Sources: iBoxx and ECB.
Notes: Composite rates are computed as averages of new business rates for different maturities, weighted by outstanding amounts. The chart shows the density approximation of 
the distribution of deposit rates obtained from a sample of MFIs in vulnerable and less vulnerable countries.

Deposit rates in vulnerable countries did not fully follow policy rate declines at 
the height of the crisis. The median deposit rate for banks in vulnerable countries 
fell from 2.86% in September 2008, when policy rates were cut, to around 1.15% in 
mid-2012 (see Chart 10). In less vulnerable countries, the median deposit interest 
rate fell further (from 3.58% to 0.88%). In vulnerable countries, deposit outflows 
and banks’ need to attract more stable funding may have stemmed the decrease 
in rates.35 Since the OMT announcement in the middle of 2012, deposit outflows 
linked to concerns about the health of sovereigns and banks have receded. Deposit 
rates have fallen and the dispersion in pricing across banks in vulnerable countries 
has also declined notably, particularly following the announcement of further credit 
easing by the ECB in mid-2014 and the expanded APP in early 2015. Deposit rates 
are increasingly clustered at zero as the effect of monetary easing keeps funding 
costs low. Nonetheless, banks have proved reluctant to set negative deposit rates. 
This is likely to reflect commercial policies, since retail depositors are likely to be less 
averse to an increase in commissions than to a negative deposit rate. It may also 
reflect the gradual pass-through of past cuts in monetary policy rates to deposit rates 
and the recent re-pricing in wholesale markets. 

Banks’ access to market funding deteriorated during the crisis, with 
funding flows diminishing and the cost of issuing debt securities increasing 
substantially. Around the time of the turmoil related to the sub-prime mortgage 
crisis in the United States and the collapse of Lehman Brothers there was a general 
increase in market funding costs in the euro area (see Chart 11). While this increase 
was more significant in vulnerable countries, it was driven by a small number of 
large banks that were particularly affected by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. 
When the sovereign debt crisis broke out in early 2010, the level and dispersion of 

35  See the box entitled “The impact of the financial crisis on banks’ deposit margins”, Financial Stability 

Review, ECB, June 2011. 

38

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 11
Yields on bonds issued by euro area banks

(percentages per annum)

euro area
vulnerable countries
less vulnerable countries

10

8

6

4

2

0
2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Sources: iBoxx and ECB.
Note: Bank bond yields are averaged by outstanding amount of securities issued.

market funding costs increased in vulnerable countries, 
while banks in less vulnerable countries were more 
insulated from the turmoil. By the middle of 2011, as 
the sovereign debt crisis intensified, market funding 
costs for banks in both vulnerable and less vulnerable 
countries had increased, although the gap between 
them also widened.36 While the introduction at the end 
of 2011 and in early 2012 of the LTROs with a three-
year maturity acted as a strong backstop to prevent 
forced deleveraging of banks and helped subdue 
market funding costs, these remained high overall until 
the OMT announcement in mid-2012. Bond yields have 
since fallen across both vulnerable and less vulnerable 
countries. Market funding costs declined further for 
most euro area banks as a result of the expanded 
APP, at least until the re-pricing in financial markets 
observed in April 2015. Developments in credit default 
swap (CDS) spreads, which abstract from differences 
in the type and maturity of the debt securities issued 
by banks, were broadly in line with bank bond yields. 

Distributions of five-year CDS spreads show that the sovereign debt crisis led to 
a significant increase in the dispersion of the perceived credit risk of banks, most 
notably in vulnerable countries (see Chart 12). The ECB’s monetary policy actions 
since the second half of 2012 and the strengthening of the European supervisory, 
regulatory and resolution framework have led to a decline in the stress in financial 

Chart 12
Distribution of five-year bank CDS spreads

(basis points)

Sep. 2015 (median = 140)
June 2012 (median = 500)
Sep. 2008 (median = 112)

a) Vulnerable countries

Sep. 2015 (median = 81)
June 2012 (median = 229)
Sep. 2008 (median = 103)

b) Less vulnerable countries

0.025

0.020

0.015

0.010

0.005

0.000

0.025

0.020

0.015

0.010

0.005

0.000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sources: Datastream and ECB.
Note: The chart shows the density approximation of the distribution of ﬁ ve-year CDS spreads obtained from a sample of MFIs in vulnerable and less vulnerable countries.

36  See Babihuga, R. and Spaltro, M., “Bank Funding Costs for International Banks”, IMF Working Papers, 

No 14/71, April 2014.

39

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 13
Cost of euro area bank equity

(percentages per annum)

euro area
vulnerable countries
less vulnerable countries

14

12

10

8

6

4
2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Consensus Economics and ECB 
calculations.

markets and a decrease in the dispersion of the 
perceived risk of euro area banks, as well as in their 
wholesale market funding costs. Nonetheless, renewed 
tensions in Greece have led to an increase in CDS 
spreads for some banks since early 2015. 

The cost of equity for euro area banks rose sharply 
during the financial crisis (see Chart 13). This was 
triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the 
United States. A gap between the expected return paid 
by banks in vulnerable and less vulnerable countries 
started to open up after the outbreak of the euro area 
sovereign crisis in 2010. Until the summer of 2007 
euro area banks had been able to raise equity at an 
expected rate of return of approximately 7%. Between 
the beginning of the US subprime crisis and the 
collapse of Lehman Brothers, their cost of equity rose 
to almost 10%. It continued to increase until the second 
half of 2012, when it reached a level well above 10%. 
Eventually, the introduction of the three-year LTROs 

and the OMT announcement began to moderate risk aversion in financial markets. At 
the same time, risk-free rates decreased and banks undertook a steady process of 
deleveraging that resulted in a reduction of their market risk. As a result, even though 
the equity premium has remained a few percentage points higher than before the 
crisis, lower risk-free rates and lower balance sheet risks have brought the cost of 
bank equity back down to levels close to those prevailing before the crisis (see Box 1 
for details of the cost of equity estimation). However, the gap between banks’ equity 
funding costs in vulnerable and less vulnerable countries has not closed and has 
reached spreads of approximately 2 percentage points.

overall, Eurosystem support played a major role during the crisis in mitigating 
distortions related to dysfunctional funding markets by providing abundant 
liquidity at low interest rates and minimising the pro-cyclical contraction in 
lending to the non-financial private sector. Chart 14 provides a simple illustration 
of the direct impact of Eurosystem liquidity on banks’ funding costs. Against the 
background of the ECB’s forward guidance and fixed rate full allotment policy, banks 
were able to use liquidity provided by the central bank for refinancing in place of 
wholesale market debt in a context of adverse market conditions. This effect can 
be illustrated by assuming that in the absence of Eurosystem liquidity banks would 
have issued debt securities at the cost implied by the secondary market, leading to 
a higher weighted average cost of debt funding. This measure shows considerable 
dispersion across banks and particularly high cost relief for banks located in 
vulnerable countries. For banks in less vulnerable countries, the cost relief provided 
by Eurosystem liquidity was smaller, even though it increased for a minority of banks 
following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and then more modestly at the peak of 
the sovereign debt crisis. This indicator is likely to underestimate the actual impact 
of Eurosystem liquidity, since it abstracts from the relief from quantitative constraints 

40

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleChart 14
Interaction between Eurosystem liquidity and banks’ average cost of debt financing

(percentages per annum)

total
median

10th-90th percentile

Vulnerable countries

Less vulnerable countries

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

-1

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Sources: iBoxx, ECB and ECB calculations.
Note: The shaded area shows the distribution between the 10th and 90th percentiles. The indicator is calculated by attributing the cost of debt securities to the share of Eurosystem 
liquidity in banks’ funding structures. On this basis, a hypothetical weighted average cost of debt funding is obtained and compared with that which was actually observed. The 
components of debt funding considered are deposits of the non-ﬁ nancial private sector, debt securities and Eurosystem liquidity.

and from the positive effect of the operations on the price of other funding sources 
due to improved market sentiment. On the other hand, it could also be the case that 

Chart 15
Estimated impact of the TLTROs and APP on bank 
bond yields

(basis points)

euro area
minimum/maximum  for the four largest euro area countries

80

60

40

20

0

TLTROs

APP

Source: ECB calculations.

relatively profitable opportunities emerged, given the 
access to liquidity at a very low cost, which would mean 
that if the liquidity had not been available, banks would 
have simply forgone those opportunities and not issued 
debt.

all three main transmission channels of the aPP 
and the TLTros – the direct pass-through, portfolio 
rebalancing and signalling channels – have an 
impact on bank funding costs and, ultimately, 
output and inflation.37 There are a number of ways to 
estimate the direct and indirect impact of the APP and 
the TLTROs on banks’ funding conditions, one of which 
is using controlled event studies. Such studies suggest 
that the combined effects of the non-standard monetary 
policy measures implemented since June 2014 have 
significantly lowered yields in a broad set of financial 
market segments, with the effects generally increasing 
with maturity and riskiness (see Chart 15).38

37  For a more detailed discussion of the different channels, see Borio, C. and Disyatat, P., 

“Unconventional monetary policies: an appraisal”, BIS Working Papers, No 292, November 2009. 

38  See Altavilla, C., Carboni, G. and Motto, R., “Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: 

lessons from the euro area”, Working Paper Series, No 1864, ECB, November 2015. 

41

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Article4 

Conclusions

Changes in the composition and cost of bank funding and capital have 
important implications for credit provision and, consequently, for output and 
inflation. Banks’ funding costs are affected by monetary policy, but the transmission 
of monetary policy depends on many factors, including the strength of banks’ 
balance sheets and the macroeconomic environment.

over the crisis, funding conditions fluctuated greatly, owing to changes in 
the economic environment, financial and sovereign market tensions and the 
monetary policy response to these developments. Bank funding structures 
changed considerably, in part reflecting the need to increase the weight of capital 
in the overall funding mix and reduce the overreliance on wholesale funding that 
was observed in the run-up to the crisis. The ECB’s standard and non-standard 
monetary policy measures provided considerable support to the economy over the 
different phases of the crisis. The Governing Council decreased the interest rate on 
refinancing operations and increased the quantity and maturity of liquidity provided 
to banks, which helped prevent disorderly deleveraging and mitigate the stress 
in funding markets. Steps towards a banking union and a more comprehensive 
regulatory environment have also encouraged a move towards a more sustainable 
and resilient funding structure. More recently, as the banking system has stabilised, 
policies have been introduced to address below-target inflation. The credit easing 
package introduced in the middle of 2014 and the APP provide additional liquidity 
and reduce funding costs, supporting banks’ intermediation capacity and, ultimately, 
output and inflation. 

While monetary policy measures have helped to reduce the heterogeneity in 
euro area funding conditions (particularly for deposits and bonds, leading to 
improved policy transmission), there remain differences across countries, as 
seen in the cost of equity. The differences in the cost of equity across countries 
reflect remaining differences in perceived risk, as well as underlying differences in 
strength of banks’ balance sheets and expected profitability. Many of the problems 
for banks are related to structural issues that are outside the realm of monetary 
policy and require action from the private sector or governments to ensure a 
sustained recovery. 

Current monetary policy measures and a changing regulatory environment 
will continue to affect the composition and cost of bank funding. Steps towards 
banking union and important regulatory initiatives at the global and European 
level will strengthen banks, which will have a considerable impact on their funding 
structure. While the adjustment to this new environment may carry costs in the short 
term, the reduction in the risk of further systemic crises will lead to a more stable 
banking system and robust transmission mechanism. 

42

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleBox 1
Estimation of the cost of equity 

This box outlines the approach used to estimate the cost of equity (CoE) of euro area banks. 
Estimates are based on an application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). This approach 
can be applied to a portfolio of the largest listed euro area banks.

The CoE is the rate of return that shareholders expect to earn (in equilibrium) on a stake in 
the equity of a bank or a portfolio of banks. The value of an investment should amount to the 
expected sum of all its future cash flows, discounted at a rate that compensates for the investment 
risk: this discount rate is defined as the COE of that investment.39 As the COE is unobservable, it 
must be inferred from prices and expected cash flows using a theoretical model. 

There are two methods of estimating banks’ CoE: a direct and an indirect one.40 Direct 
estimates invert the discounted cash flow formula to compute the COE, given the market price 
of equity and the (survey-based) market expectations of banks’ future cash flows. As the market 
price must (in equilibrium) coincide with the discounted sum of all expected future cash flows, the 
valuation formula can be solved for the discount rate that prices the banks’ equity. This is also called 
the implied equity premium approach. Indirect estimates, on the other hand, first infer an implied 
COE for the whole stock market and then project it onto banks’ COE with an economic model. As 
with direct estimates, the first step is calculated using the implied equity premium approach, while 
the CAPM operationalises the second stage. The difference between the expected return on the 
stock market and the risk-free rate is known as the market equity premium, a measure of the market 
price of risk that is used to price all assets under the CAPM.

The methodology used in this box relies on the indirect method and is based on two 
elements: an estimate of the market equity premium and its projection onto banks’ CoE 
obtained using the CaPm. The CAPM is a general equilibrium model that imposes tight 
restrictions on the cross section of expected returns. It predicts that the expected excess return on 
asset over the risk-free rate (E[Ri ] – Rrf) is linear in βi for any i:

(E[Ri ] – Rrf) = βi (E[Rm ] – Rrf) 

where (E[Rm ] – Rrf) is the equity premium (market price of risk) and βi = [cov(Ri,Rm)/var(Rm )] 
measures the contribution of asset i to the risk of the market portfolio (quantity of risk). Given the 
market price of risk, the quantity of risk βi is sufficient to price asset i.

The reference market portfolio here is the euro area stock market. This is approximated by the 
Euro STOXX portfolio, a broad yet liquid subset of the STOXX Europe 600 portfolio. Returns on 

39  More generally, the COE can be defined for a single project or a portfolio – a firm (portfolio of projects), 

a sector (portfolio of firms) or the whole stock market (portfolio of all firms).

40  This box does not explicitly consider surveys in which financial sector participants only report 

their estimated COE and/or historical averages of realised excess returns as a proxy for the COE. 
The former are excluded as they are crude numbers which do not lend themselves to economic 
interpretation, and the latter are excluded as they are generated by a naive model. 

43

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Articlethe portfolio of 33 Euro STOXX banks are aggregated using daily market capitalisation as weights. 
These banks account for roughly 85% of the total assets and total market capitalisation of all listed 
euro area banks.41

The quantity of risk carried by bank shares (i.e. banks’ beta) is estimated using standard 
linear regression techniques.42 Returns of each portfolio are regressed on the returns of the 
market index. The reference market index for all securities is the Euro STOXX index because the 
euro area is a well-integrated financial market with low cross-border transaction costs and a single 
currency. In order to document the development of the industry’s COE over time, the analysis 
concentrates on spot estimates of beta, obtained with rolling regressions of daily data over short 
windows (one year).43 Euro area banks’ beta was fairly stable (between 1.0 and 1.2) until the first 
half of 2007. Following the outbreak of the financial crisis, it increased constantly until it reached  
1.7 in the second half of 2012. After this peak, there was a sharp decline, back to pre-crisis levels.

The equity premium is estimated using the market price of equity and analysts’ expectations 
of future dividends. Implied premia are forward-looking measures, calculated using a variant of 
the discounted cash flow model (DCFM). Assuming a constant dividend pay-out ratio, which implies 
an equal growth rate of earnings and dividends, the DCFM reduces to the dividend discount model 
(DDM). In its simplest form, the DDM posits that the value of equity is determined by the flow of 
dividends that it yields to investors, discounted at a rate that accounts for a term premium and an 
equity risk premium.44 The basic, constant growth DDM can be represented as follows:

∞
Pt = Et ∑ k=0 

Dt+k
ρt+k

where Dt+k is the level of dividends in period t + k and pt+k is the discount rate from t to t + k, defined 
as the sum of the risk-free rate and the equity premium:

Pt+k = 1 + R    + EPt

rf
t+k

Assuming that dividends grow at a constant rate g , the two equations imply that

EPt =       (1 + g) – (Rrf – g) 

t

Dt
Dt
ρt
ρt

41  For reasons of data quality and availability, the countries defined in this article as vulnerable and 

less vulnerable are represented in this box by the following countries: Spain and Italy for vulnerable 
countries and Belgium, Germany, France and Austria for less vulnerable countries. 

42  As in Fama, E.F. and MacBeth, J.D., “Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests”, Journal of 

Political Economy, Vol. 81, No 3, 1973, pp. 607-636. 

43  For the sake of robustness, the estimates are compared with those obtained from five-year rolling 

windows of monthly data. The difference is not statistically significant, except for the recent period. The 
departure of the two measures from one another in the last period is a sign of the ongoing deleveraging 
of European banks. 

44  See Gordon, M. J., “Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices”, Review of Economics and Statistics,  

Vol. 41, No 2, 1959, pp. 99-105. 

44

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleThe equity premium is estimated using a variation of the DDm known as the H-model. 45 
Dividends are expected to grow at an abnormal rate for ga (an average of) H years and gradually 
decelerate/accelerate to a normal growth rate gss in the long run. The expected growth rate is 
assumed to decline linearly from an initial rate ga to the long-term (constant) rate gss:

EPt =       (1 + ga) + H * (ga – gss) – (Rrf – gss) 

t

Dt
ρt

The long-term expected growth rate gss, is obtained from the forecast survey of Consensus 
Economics, as the long-term real GDP growth forecast (beyond five years ahead). Long-term real 
interest rates are yields to maturity on ten-year inflation-linked sovereign bonds. Dividend yields  
Dt / Pt and abnormal growth rate forecasts ga are obtained from the Institutional Brokers Estimate 
System (I/B/E/S) database. This database measures a weighted (by market capitalisation) average 
of the median forecast of the annual growth rate of earnings for individual firms included in the Euro 
STOXX index over a five-year period. 

45  As in Fuller, R.J. and Hsia, C.-C., “A Simplified Common Stock Valuation Model”, Financial Analysts 

Journal, Vol. 40, No 5, 1984, pp. 49-56. 

45

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – ArticleStatistics

Contents

  1 External environment

  2 Financial developments

  3 Economic activity

  4 Prices and costs

  5 Money and credit

  6 Fiscal developments

Further information

S 2

S 3

S 8

S 14

S 18

S 23

  ECB statistics can be accessed from the Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW): 

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/

  Data from the statistics section of the Economic Bulletin are available from the SDW: 

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004813

  A comprehensive Statistics Bulletin can be found in the SDW: 

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004045 

  Methodological definitions can be found in the General Notes to the Statistics Bulletin:

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000023

  Details on calculations can be found in the Technical Notes to the Statistics Bulletin:

http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000022

  Explanations of terms and abbreviations can be found in the ECBʼs statistics glossary:  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/glossary/html/glossa.en.html

Conventions used in the tables

 -

.

...

data do not exist/data are not applicable 

data are not yet available

nil or negligible

(p)

provisional

  s.a.

seasonally adjusted

  n.s.a.

non-seasonally adjusted

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 1
S 1

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 External environment

1.1 Main trading partners, GDP and CPI

   GDP 1) 
   (period-on-period percentage changes)

   CPI
   (annual percentage changes)

G20

United
States Kingdom

United Japan China Memo item:
euro area

   OECD countries

Total

excluding food
and energy

United Japan China

United
States Kingdom
(HICP)

Memo item:
euro area 2)
(HICP)

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

1

3.1
3.3
. 

0.8
0.7
0.7
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

2

1.5
2.4
. 

0.2
1.0
0.5
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

3

2.2
2.9
. 

0.4
0.5
0.4
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

4

1.4
-0.1
. 

1.1
-0.1
0.3
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

5

7.7
7.4
. 

1.3
1.8
1.8
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

6

7

-0.3
0.9
. 

0.5
0.4
0.3
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

1.6
1.7
. 

0.6
0.5
0.5
. 

0.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.7
. 

Sources: Eurostat (col. 3, 6, 10, 13); BIS (col. 2, 4, 9, 11, 12); OECD (col. 1, 5, 7, 8).
1) Quarterly data seasonally adjusted; annual data unadjusted.
2) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.

8

1.6
1.8
. 

1.7
1.6
1.7
. 

1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
. 

9

1.5
1.6
0.1

-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.7

10

2.6
1.5
0.0

0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1

0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2

11

12

0.4
2.7
. 

2.3
0.5
0.2
. 

0.3
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
. 

2.6
2.0
1.4

1.2
1.4
1.7
1.5

1.6
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.6

13

1.4
0.4
0.0

-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2

0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2

1.2 Main trading partners, Purchasing Managersʼ Index and world trade

   Purchasing Managersʼ Surveys (diffusion indices; s.a.)

   Merchandise
   imports 1)

   Composite Purchasing Managersʼ Index

   Global Purchasing Managersʼ Index 2) 

Global 2) United

States Kingdom

United Japan China Memo item: Manufacturing Services
euro area

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

1

2

3

4

5

53.3
54.2
53.3

53.9
53.4
53.1
52.8

53.4
53.5
52.4
52.8
53.3
52.4

54.8
57.3
55.8

56.9
55.9
55.4
55.0

55.7
55.7
55.0
55.0
56.1
54.0

56.8
57.9
56.3

57.3
57.2
55.1
55.5

56.7
55.2
53.3
55.4
55.7
55.3

52.6
50.9
51.4

50.4
51.3
51.9
52.3

51.5
52.9
51.2
52.3
52.3
52.2

51.5
51.1
50.4

51.5
51.1
49.0
49.9

50.2
48.8
48.0
49.9
50.5
49.4

6

49.7
52.7
53.8

53.3
53.9
53.9
54.1

53.9
54.3
53.6
53.9
54.2
54.3

7

52.3
53.4
52.0

52.8
50.9
50.3
51.1

50.9
50.0
50.1
51.1
51.6
50.7

8

52.7
54.1
53.9

54.3
54.2
54.0
53.3

54.2
54.6
53.2
53.3
53.8
52.9

New export
orders

Global

Advanced
economies

Emerging
market
economies

9

50.7
51.5
50.4

50.3
49.3
48.7
50.1

49.1
48.8
48.1
50.5
50.2
49.6

10

3.1
3.2
. 

-2.0
-1.0
2.6
. 

0.2
2.6
2.6
1.9
. 
. 

11

-0.1
3.6
. 

1.4
-0.7
1.2
. 

-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.1
. 
. 

12

5.4
2.8
. 

-4.4
-1.2
3.6
. 

1.2
4.6
3.6
1.8
. 
. 

Sources: Markit (col. 1-9); CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and ECB calculations (col. 10-12).
1) Global and advanced economies exclude the euro area. Annual and quarterly data are period-on-period percentages; monthly data are 3-month-on-3-month percentages. All data

are seasonally adjusted.
2) Excluding the euro area.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 2
S 2

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
   
   
2 Financial developments

2.1 Money market interest rates
(percentages per annum; period averages)

   Euro area 1) 

Overnight
deposits
(EONIA)

1-month
deposits
(EURIBOR)

3-month
deposits
(EURIBOR)

6-month
deposits
(EURIBOR)

12-month
deposits
(EURIBOR)

1

0.09
0.09
-0.11

-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0.14
-0.14
-0.13
-0.20

2

0.13
0.13
-0.07

-0.06
-0.07
-0.09
-0.11
-0.12
-0.14
-0.19

3

0.22
0.21
-0.02

-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.09
-0.13

4

0.34
0.31
0.05

0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.02
-0.02
-0.04

5

0.54
0.48
0.17

0.16
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.08
0.06

United States

3-month
deposits
(LIBOR)

6

0.27
0.23
0.31

0.28
0.29
0.32
0.33
0.32
0.37
0.53

Japan

3-month
deposits
(LIBOR)

7

0.15
0.13
0.09

0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08

2013
2014
2015

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area, see the General Notes.

2.2 Yield curves
(End of period; rates in percentages per annum; spreads in percentage points)

   Spot rates

   Spreads

   Instantaneous forward rates

   Euro area 1), 2) 

Euro area 1), 2) United States United Kingdom

   Euro area 1), 2)

3 months

1 year

2 years

5 years 10 years

10 years
- 1 year

10 years
- 1 year

10 years
- 1 year

1 year

2 years

5 years 10 years

1

2

3

4

2013
2014
2015

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

0.08
-0.02
-0.45

-0.27
-0.27
-0.25
-0.36
-0.35
-0.41
-0.45

0.09
-0.09
-0.40

-0.26
-0.29
-0.27
-0.27
-0.33
-0.40
-0.40

0.25
-0.12
-0.35

-0.23
-0.26
-0.22
-0.24
-0.31
-0.40
-0.35

1.07
0.07
0.02

0.19
0.08
0.14
0.04
-0.03
-0.13
0.02

5

2.24
0.65
0.77

0.95
0.73
0.82
0.70
0.63
0.58
0.77

6

2.15
0.74
1.17

1.21
1.02
1.09
0.97
0.96
0.98
1.17

7

2.91
1.95
1.66

2.09
1.87
1.84
1.73
1.82
1.73
1.66

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area, see the General Notes.
2) ECB calculations based on underlying data provided by EuroMTS and ratings provided by Fitch Ratings.

8

2.66
1.45
1.68

1.52
1.35
1.46
1.24
1.40
1.34
1.68

9

10

0.18
-0.15
-0.35

-0.25
-0.29
-0.25
-0.22
-0.32
-0.41
-0.35

0.67
-0.11
-0.22

-0.10
-0.13
-0.07
-0.17
-0.25
-0.36
-0.22

11

2.53
0.58
0.82

1.08
0.76
0.86
0.73
0.66
0.58
0.82

12

3.88
1.77
1.98

2.09
1.84
1.97
1.76
1.69
1.77
1.98

2.3 Stock market indices
(index levels in points; period averages)

   Benchmark

Broad
index

50

   Dow Jones EURO STOXX indices

   Main industry indices

United
States

Japan

materials

Basic Consumer Consumer Oil and Financials Industrials Technology Utilities Telecoms Health care Standard
& Poorʼs
500

services

goods

gas

Nikkei
225

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2013
2014
2015

281.9 2,794.0
318.7 3,145.3
356.2 3,444.1

2015 June  364.0 3,521.8
         July  366.3 3,545.1
         Aug.  356.7 3,444.4
         Sep.  330.9 3,165.5
         Oct.  342.2 3,275.5
         Nov.  358.2 3,439.6
         Dec.  346.0 3,288.6

Source: ECB.

586.3
644.3
717.4

743.2
744.0
711.9
649.6
658.6
703.0
652.5

195.0
216.6
261.9

265.5
266.0
261.9
250.9
261.3
269.0
262.8

468.2
510.6
628.2

647.4
645.2
615.0
566.4
598.9
640.1
630.2

312.8
335.5
299.9

310.3
302.1
287.7
267.2
290.0
297.3
278.1

151.5
180.0
189.8

194.5
198.0
193.9
178.5
183.4
187.0
180.2

402.7
452.9
500.6

504.7
505.5
504.6
469.7
478.7
507.4
494.9

274.1
310.8
373.2

385.0
378.1
359.9
339.5
360.4
394.1
391.7

230.6
279.2
278.0

283.0
281.3
274.9
250.8
263.5
270.3
263.6

253.4
306.7
377.7

380.7
395.1
390.0
362.6
362.3
385.3
363.3

629.4
668.1
821.3

820.4
864.8
856.9
817.4
823.9
850.1
811.0

1,643.8 13,577.9
1,931.4 15,460.4
2,061.1 19,203.8

2,099.3 20,403.8
2,094.1 20,372.6
2,039.9 19,919.1
1,944.4 17,944.2
2,024.8 18,374.1
2,080.6 19,581.8
2,054.1 19,202.6

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 3
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
2 Financial developments

2.4 MFI interest rates on loans to and deposits from households (new business) 1), 2)
(Percentages per annum; period average, unless otherwise indicated)

   Deposits

Revolving Extended   Loans for consumption

   Loans for house purchase

Over- Redeem-
night

loans
and
able    an agreed overdrafts

   With

at    maturity of:

notice
of up Up to Over
2
months years years

to 3

2

Loans
credit
to sole
card   By initial period APRC 3) proprietors
and
credit   of rate fixation
unincor-
porated Floating Over 1 Over 5 Over
10
partner- rate and and up and up
to 10 years
years

Floating Over
1
rate and
up to
year
1 year

   By initial period
   of rate fixation

up to
1 year

to 5
years

ships

APRC 3) Composite
cost-of-
borrowing
indicator

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2014 Dec.  0.20

2015 Jan. 
0.19
         Feb.  0.18
         Mar.  0.17
0.16
         Apr. 
         May 
0.16
         June  0.15
         July 
0.15
         Aug.  0.14
         Sep.  0.14
0.14
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p) 0.14

0.89

0.86
0.85
0.83
0.79
0.82
0.78
0.74
0.67
0.67
0.66
0.65

0.96

1.01
0.97
0.89
0.87
0.84
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.65
0.64

1.56

1.95
1.53
1.24
1.19
1.13
1.11
1.14
1.00
1.08
0.99
0.94

7.14

7.18
7.13
7.13
7.03
6.98
6.97
6.83
6.83
6.85
6.71
6.68

17.10

17.12
17.05
17.05
17.01
17.08
17.02
17.08
17.03
17.06
16.98
16.91

5.07

5.24
5.18
5.16
4.89
5.04
4.88
5.10
5.30
5.21
5.22
5.27

6.21

6.42
6.47
6.17
6.13
6.29
6.15
6.20
6.28
6.18
6.03
6.22

6.53

6.73
6.82
6.50
6.42
6.60
6.47
6.53
6.62
6.55
6.43
6.60

2.74

2.75
2.79
2.72
2.66
2.67
2.59
2.61
2.60
2.68
2.64
2.68

2.40

2.31
2.09
2.10
2.01
2.05
2.02
2.05
2.12
2.07
2.06
2.05

2.51

2.55
2.51
2.45
2.38
2.33
2.25
2.25
2.35
2.36
2.32
2.32

2.50

2.45
2.35
2.24
2.17
2.10
2.12
2.21
2.30
2.29
2.30
2.32

2.67

2.43
2.48
2.39
2.36
2.30
2.32
2.36
2.33
2.39
2.41
2.45

2.75

2.69
2.58
2.53
2.49
2.45
2.48
2.56
2.60
2.61
2.58
2.62

16

2.48

2.40
2.37
2.29
2.23
2.17
2.18
2.22
2.26
2.25
2.26
2.27

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) Including non-profit institutions serving households.
3) Annual percentage rate of charge (APRC).

2.5 MFI interest rates on loans to and deposits from non-financial corporations (new business) 1), 2)
(Percentages per annum; period average, unless otherwise indicated)

   Deposits

Revolving
loans and
Over-   With an agreed overdrafts
night

   maturity of:

   Other loans by size and initial period of rate fixation

   up to EUR 0.25 million

   over EUR 0.25 and up to 1 million

   over EUR 1 million

Floating

Over
rate 3 months
and up to and up to
1 year
3 months

Over
1 year

Floating
rate
and up to
3 months

Over
3 months
and up to
1 year

Over
1 year

Floating

Over
rate 3 months
and up to and up to
1 year
3 months

Over
1 year

Composite
cost-of-
borrowing
indicator

Up to Over
2 years 2 years

1

2

3

2014 Dec. 

0.23

0.22
2015 Jan. 
0.21
         Feb. 
0.21
         Mar. 
0.19
         Apr. 
0.18
         May 
0.18
         June 
0.17
         July 
0.17
         Aug. 
0.17
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
0.16
         Nov. (p) 0.16

0.43

0.44
0.35
0.32
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.24
0.26
0.26
0.23

1.25

1.19
1.04
0.97
0.89
0.91
1.09
0.86
0.92
0.98
0.80
0.84

4

3.49

3.49
3.43
3.39
3.34
3.28
3.25
3.19
3.16
3.20
3.09
3.05

5

3.68

3.78
3.59
3.45
3.46
3.37
3.19
3.27
3.24
3.23
3.18
3.13

6

7

3.75

3.85
3.72
3.65
3.58
3.51
3.48
3.60
3.57
3.52
3.42
3.39

3.24

2.99
3.14
3.10
2.97
2.97
2.87
2.87
2.91
2.89
2.89
2.88

8

2.34

2.31
2.23
2.16
2.18
2.15
2.09
2.07
2.07
2.03
2.04
2.02

9

10

11

12

13

2.77

2.82
2.71
2.65
2.60
2.46
2.33
2.36
2.32
2.25
2.27
2.16

2.50

2.05
2.39
2.32
2.26
2.23
2.23
2.20
2.22
2.21
2.20
2.20

1.73

1.66
1.51
1.61
1.61
1.56
1.59
1.50
1.39
1.49
1.43
1.43

2.16

2.03
1.99
2.11
1.93
1.85
1.91
1.73
1.53
1.87
1.69
1.62

2.13

2.20
2.15
2.00
2.03
2.04
2.04
2.05
2.03
2.18
2.03
1.98

14

2.44

2.44
2.36
2.35
2.32
2.26
2.24
2.17
2.13
2.20
2.14
2.12

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) In accordance with the ESA 2010, in December 2014 holding companies of non-financial groups were reclassified from the non-financial corporations sector to the financial

corporations sector.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

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2 Financial developments

2.6 Debt securities issued by euro area residents, by sector of the issuer and initial maturity
(EUR billions; transactions during the month and end-of-period outstanding amounts; nominal values)

   Outstanding amounts

   Gross issues 1)

Total

MFIs
(including
Euro-

   Non-MFI corporations

   General government Total

   Non-MFI corporations

   General government

Financial
system) corporations

financial
other than FVCs corporations

Non- Central
govern-
ment

Other
general
govern-
ment

Financial
system) corporations

Non-
financial
other than FVCs corporations

MFIs

Central
govern-
ment

Other
general
govern-
ment

MFIs
(including
Euro-

MFIs

1

2

3

4

2012
2013
2014

1,432
1,253
1,320

2015 June  1,336
         July  1,339
         Aug.  1,340
         Sep.  1,324
         Oct.  1,337
         Nov.  1,351

2012
2013
2014

15,205
15,108
15,126

2015 June 15,341
         July  15,301
         Aug. 15,243
         Sep. 15,263
         Oct. 15,349
         Nov. 15,411

587
483
544

559
558
558
545
552
559

4,814
4,405
4,048

3,937
3,915
3,892
3,864
3,859
3,870

146
122
129

130
126
130
125
143
144

3,166
3,086
3,158

3,258
3,278
3,236
3,244
3,312
3,311

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

5

75
67
59

75
81
79
75
74
73

842
921
993

1,027
1,034
1,033
1,040
1,047
1,062

6

7
Short-term

558
529
538

517
520
515
520
509
509

5,758
6,069
6,285

6,484
6,437
6,444
6,482
6,495
6,524

66
53
50

56
54
59
59
60
66

Long-term

624
627
643

634
636
637
633
636
644

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

703
508
409

296
339
290
343
362
311

255
222
221

208
224
112
255
234
201

491
314
219

123
143
132
162
172
140

98
70
66

69
79
42
63
80
70

37
30
33

30
34
28
30
31
39

45
39
44

34
42
19
80
43
38

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

52
44
39

34
39
22
29
32
30

16
16
16

13
10
4
14
12
15

103
99
93

77
91
79
93
86
75

84
89
85

87
83
44
93
89
67

21
21
25

32
31
29
30
42
26

12
9
10

5
10
4
4
10
11

Source: ECB.
1) For the purpose of comparison, annual data refer to the average monthly figure over the year.

2.7 Growth rates and outstanding amounts of debt securities and listed shares
(EUR billions; percentage changes)

   Debt securities

   Listed shares

Total

MFIs
(including
Eurosystem)

   Non-MFI corporations

   General government

Total

MFIs

Financial
corporations
other than
MFIs

Non-

Central
financial government

FVCs corporations

Other
general
government

Financial
corporations

Non-
financial
other than corporations

MFIs

1

2

3

4

5

6
Oustanding amount

7

8

9

10

11

2012
2013
2014

16,636.6
16,361.5
16,446.2

2015 June  16,676.6
16,639.2
         July 
16,583.4
         Aug. 
16,587.3
         Sep. 
16,686.2
         Oct. 
16,762.0
         Nov. 

2012
2013
2014

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

Source: ECB.

1.3
-1.4
-0.7

-1.1
-1.2
-1.0
-0.5
0.2
0.2

5,400.9
4,887.6
4,591.6

4,496.0
4,472.9
4,450.2
4,409.5
4,411.0
4,429.6

-1.8
-8.9
-7.8

-7.7
-7.6
-7.3
-7.5
-6.0
-5.6

3,312.0
3,208.5
3,287.1

3,387.7
3,404.1
3,365.3
3,368.9
3,454.3
3,454.9

-0.3
-3.4
0.4

1.3
0.5
0.5
2.3
3.0
2.6

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.

917.3
987.9
1,051.6

1,101.9
1,115.3
1,112.2
1,114.8
1,120.5
1,135.0

6,316.2
6,597.8
6,822.9

7,000.6
6,956.9
6,959.6
7,001.9
7,004.1
7,032.2

Growth rate

14.4
8.0
4.9

4.2
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.4

2.5
4.5
3.1

1.6
1.5
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.2

690.3
679.6
692.9

690.5
690.0
696.1
692.1
696.3
710.2

6.1
-1.1
1.2

-0.7
-0.5
-0.1
-1.8
0.2
1.3

4,598.5
5,649.0
5,958.0

6,843.6
7,114.5
6,576.7
6,273.7
6,812.0
7,006.4

0.8
0.7
1.4

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

404.7
569.1
591.1

664.3
695.0
630.6
582.5
612.1
613.9

4.9
7.2
7.2

4.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.0

616.0
748.7
786.6

881.3
915.6
850.7
807.2
874.7
922.6

2.0
-0.4
1.0

0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.9
1.5

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

3,577.9
4,331.3
4,580.3

5,298.0
5,503.9
5,095.3
4,884.0
5,325.2
5,469.9

0.3
0.2
0.7

0.7
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.6

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2 Financial developments

2.8 Effective exchange rates 1)
(period averages; index: 1999 Q1=100)

Nominal

Real CPI

Real PPI

Real GDP
deflator

Real ULCM 2)

Real ULCT

Nominal

Real CPI

   EER-19

   EER-38

1

101.2
101.8
92.4

93.0
91.2
92.7
92.4

91.3
93.0
93.8
93.6
91.1
92.5

1.5

-6.6

2

98.2
97.9
88.4

89.1
87.5
88.7
88.3

87.5
89.0
89.7
89.5
87.0
88.3

1.4

-6.9

3

96.7
96.7
89.1

89.4
88.3
89.6
89.3

88.3
89.8
90.7
90.4
88.0
89.4

4

91.1
91.3
. 

83.9
82.3
84.0
.

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

Percentage change versus previous month

1.5

- 

Percentage change versus previous year

-5.2

- 

5

102.0
102.2
. 

91.3
90.0
91.6
.

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

- 

- 

6

98.8
100.4
. 

92.2
90.1
91.4
.

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

- 

- 

7

111.9
114.7
106.5

106.4
104.4
107.6
107.7

105.1
108.1
109.6
109.0
106.0
108.0

1.9

-4.5

8

95.6
96.1
87.9

88.3
86.3
88.7
88.4

86.7
89.1
90.3
89.6
86.9
88.5

1.9

-5.7

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

2015 Dec. 

2015 Dec. 

Source: ECB.
1) For a definition of the trading partner groups and other information see the General Notes to the Statistics Bulletin.
2) ULCM-deflated series are available only for the EER-18 trading partner group.

2.9 Bilateral exchange rates
(period averages; units of national currency per euro)

Chinese Croatian
kuna
renminbi

Czech
koruna

Danish Hungarian Japanese
yen
forint

krone

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

8.165
8.186
6.973

7.023
6.857
7.008
7.000

6.827
7.063
7.146
7.135
6.840
7.019

7.579
7.634
7.614

7.681
7.574
7.578
7.623

7.586
7.558
7.589
7.621
7.607
7.640

25.980
27.536
27.279

27.624
27.379
27.075
27.057

27.094
27.041
27.089
27.105
27.039
27.027

Polish
zloty

7

4.197
4.184
4.184

4.193
4.088
4.188
4.264

7.458
7.455
7.459

7.450
7.462
7.462
7.460

296.873
308.706
309.996

308.889
306.100
312.095
312.652

129.663
140.306
134.314

134.121
134.289
135.863
132.952

311.531
311.614
313.145
311.272
312.269
314.398

7.462
7.463
7.461
7.460
7.460
7.461
Percentage change versus previous month

135.681
137.124
134.851
134.839
131.597
132.358

4.152
4.195
4.218
4.251
4.249
4.290

Pound Romanian Swedish
krona
sterling

leu

Swiss
franc

US
Dollar

8

9

10

11

12

0.849
0.806
0.726

0.743
0.721
0.717
0.722

0.707
0.714
0.731
0.733
0.707
0.726

4.4190
4.4437
4.4454

4.4516
4.4442
4.4290
4.4573

4.4391
4.4235
4.4236
4.4227
4.4453
4.5033

1.3

1.0

8.652
9.099
9.353

9.380
9.300
9.429
9.302

9.386
9.515
9.392
9.349
9.313
9.245

1.231
1.215
1.068

1.072
1.041
1.072
1.085

1.049
1.078
1.091
1.088
1.083
1.083

1.328
1.329
1.110

1.126
1.105
1.112
1.095

1.100
1.114
1.122
1.124
1.074
1.088

-0.7

-0.1

1.3

-1.7

-10.0

-11.8

2015 Dec. 

2.6

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.6

1.0

2.7

2015 Dec. 

Source: ECB.

-8.0

-0.4

-2.2

0.3

1.1

-10.0

1.8

-7.9

Percentage change versus previous year

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
2 Financial developments

2.10 Euro area balance of payments, financial account
(EUR billions, unless otherwise indicated; outstanding amounts at end of period; transactions during period)

   Total 1) 

   Direct
   investment

   Portfolio
   investment

Net
financial
derivatives

   Other investment

Reserve
assets

Assets Liabilities

Net

Assets Liabilities

Assets Liabilities

Assets Liabilities

Memo:
Gross
external
debt

1

2

3
Outstanding amounts (international investment position)

4

6

7

5

8

9

10

11

12

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

19,874.6

20,995.4

-1,120.7

8,247.8

6,403.1

6,467.3

9,829.8

21,841.7
21,447.0
21,347.0

22,847.8
22,295.7
22,222.1

-1,006.0
-848.7
-875.1

8,952.8
8,871.7
9,177.3

6,632.8
6,704.2
7,153.7

7,225.2
7,105.7
6,781.0

11,059.5
10,628.1
10,124.9

-43.1

-69.3
-24.8
-36.7

4,590.4

4,762.5

612.3

12,048.4

5,042.7
4,835.9
4,781.1

5,155.5
4,963.4
4,943.4

690.4
658.5
644.2

13,008.1
12,653.2
12,668.6

Outstanding amounts as a percentage of GDP

2015 Q3 

206.9

215.4

-8.5

88.9

69.3

65.7

98.1

-0.4

46.3

47.9

6.2

122.8

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

83.3

547.1
60.9
59.0

-57.1
120.0
-18.4
-42.6
121.1
-15.6

20.6

511.7
23.0
13.9

-116.7
130.9
-25.3
-91.6
84.7
-52.7

Transactions

62.7

35.5
37.9
45.1

59.6
-10.8
6.9
49.0
36.4
37.2

65.6

193.7
97.0
106.4

36.1
82.7
-10.0
33.8
40.5
-3.4

70.4

89.2
139.7
137.8

57.0
95.4
4.3
38.1
42.6
-5.2

103.5

137.1
128.2
14.2

34.5
14.9
-12.1
11.4
55.8
34.8

12.3

249.9
1.5
-106.9

-22.4
-63.6
-34.3
-9.0
30.3
-8.7

12-month cumulated transactions

10.0

22.6
1.3
-1.7

-6.4
9.9
-7.8
-3.8
-0.7
13.7

-98.8

187.9
-163.3
-62.6

-124.5
19.5
10.1
-92.2
31.4
-63.0

-62.1

172.5
-118.3
-16.9

-151.3
99.1
4.7
-120.7
11.7
-38.9

2015 Nov. 

649.3

499.4

149.9

426.5

406.8

392.1

168.2

37.5

-210.4

-75.6

12-month cumulated transactions as a percentage of GDP

2015 Nov. 

6.3

4.8

1.5

4.1

3.9

3.8

1.6

0.4

-2.0

-0.7

2.9

5.8
-2.4
2.7

3.2
-7.0
1.4
8.3
-6.0
2.5

3.7

0.0

-

-
-
-

-
-
-
-
-
-

-

-

Source: ECB.
1) Net financial derivatives are included in total assets.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
   
3 Economic activity

3.1 GDP and expenditure components
(quarterly data seasonally adjusted; annual data unadjusted)

Total

   Domestic demand

   External balance 1)

Total

Private Government
consumption consumption

   Gross fixed capital formation

Changes in
inventories 2)

Total

Exports 1)

Imports 1)

   GDP

Total

Total
construction machinery

Intellectual
property
products

1

2

3

4

7
5
Current prices (EUR billions)

6

8

9

10

11

12

2012
2013
2014

9,835.2 9,573.9
9,933.5 9,595.3
10,108.1 9,732.5

2014 Q4  2,549.6 2,444.7

2015 Q1  2,571.9 2,460.4
         Q2  2,591.0 2,470.6
         Q3  2,606.8 2,487.7

5,533.7
5,557.2
5,627.8

1,417.6

1,420.1
1,432.6
1,437.6

2,065.5 1,992.2
2,094.5 1,949.9
2,131.3 1,984.7

501.2

1,035.3
1,005.5
1,008.1

252.2

589.2
573.7
596.2

152.7

508.4
509.7
510.9

256.0
253.8
253.6
as a percentage of GDP

154.5
155.1
154.7

535.6

539.3
542.4
546.5

362.9
365.7
375.3

94.9

96.7
99.5
101.2

-17.5
-6.2
-11.3

-9.6

-7.4
-14.2
-7.4

261.3
338.2
375.6

104.9

111.5
120.5
119.0

4,299.2
4,374.5
4,522.5

4,037.9
4,036.2
4,146.8

1,155.0

1,050.0

1,166.9
1,194.8
1,192.1

1,055.4
1,074.4
1,073.1

2014

100.0

96.3

55.7

21.1

19.7

10.0

5.9

3.7

-0.1

3.7

- 

- 

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

0.4

0.5
0.4
0.3

-0.9
-0.3
0.9

0.9

1.3
1.6
1.6

0.4

0.5
0.4
0.3

-0.9
-0.3
0.9

0.9

1.3
1.6
1.6

0.3

0.7
0.0
0.6

-2.4
-0.7
0.9

1.0

1.3
1.3
1.7

0.3

0.7
0.0
0.6

-2.4
-0.7
0.9

0.9

1.3
1.2
1.6

Chain-linked volumes (prices for the previous year)
quarter-on-quarter percentage changes

0.2

0.5
0.3
0.6

-0.2
0.2
0.9

1.0

0.6

0.2

0.7

1.5
0.1
0.0

1.9
1.3
0.1
-0.9
-0.2
-0.5
annual percentage changes

-3.3
-2.6
1.3

0.9

-4.0
-3.4
-0.5

-0.7

-4.7
-2.2
4.1

2.7

1.4

1.4
2.6
1.2

2.0
-0.3
2.0

2.3

0.5

0.5
0.3
0.4

-1.2
-0.7
0.8

1.2

1.6
1.7
1.7

0.1
0.6
0.5
contributions to quarter-on-quarter percentage changes in GDP; percentage points

2.0
2.6
2.2

1.3
1.3
1.6

2.6
5.0
6.8

4.8
4.4
2.2

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

0.3

0.3
0.2
0.2

-0.7
-0.4
0.4

0.6

0.9
1.0
1.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1
-0.1
0.0
contributions to annual percentage changes in GDP; percentage points

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.0
0.2

0.2

0.3
0.3
0.3

-0.7
-0.5
0.3

0.2

0.4
0.5
0.4

-1.8
-1.4
-0.2

-0.1

0.0
0.1
0.0

-1.2
-0.5
0.9

0.2

0.3
0.3
0.1

0.3
0.0
0.3

0.1

0.1
0.2
0.3

-0.1

0.1
-0.2
0.2

-0.9
0.2
0.0

-0.1

-0.3
-0.5
-0.1

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
1) Exports and imports cover goods and services and include cross-border intra-euro area trade.
2) Including acquisitions less disposals of valuables.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

0.0

-0.2
0.4
-0.3

1.5
0.4
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.4
-0.1

1.2

1.3
1.6
0.2

2.6
2.1
4.1

4.7

5.2
5.8
4.4

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

1.2

1.9
0.9
0.9

-1.0
1.3
4.5

5.0

5.8
5.5
4.9

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

S 8
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
3 Economic activity

3.2 Value added by economic activity
(quarterly data seasonally adjusted; annual data unadjusted)

   Gross value added (basic prices)

Total Agriculture, Manufacturing Const-
energy and ruction

Trade,

Infor-
transport, mation

forestry and
fishing

utilities

accom- and com- insurance

Finance

Real Professional,

and estate business and ministration,
education,
health and
social work

support
services

Public ad- Arts, enter-
tainment
and other
services

modation munica-
and food
tion
services

Taxes less
subsidies
on
products

1

2

3

4

2012
2013
2014

8,842.1
8,929.0
9,074.4

2014 Q4  2,287.0

2015 Q1  2,311.9
         Q2  2,324.4
         Q3  2,338.1

148.8
152.3
146.9

35.5

36.1
36.2
35.9

1,730.7
1,736.3
1,756.5

442.8

449.7
452.5
453.4

468.8
457.9
461.0

115.6

117.3
116.7
117.2

5

6
Current prices (EUR billions)

7

8

9

10

11

12

1,667.2
1,682.1
1,711.8

432.7

411.4
412.5
417.6

105.4

442.1 1,013.6
442.2 1,032.3
455.6 1,051.6

114.6 265.1

438.0
440.6
444.4
as a percentage of value added

115.9 266.2
115.1 268.4
115.1 270.4

106.0
107.3
107.7

928.2
945.1
967.7

244.9

247.9
251.0
253.5

1,718.5
1,751.3
1,782.2

449.0

452.6
453.9
457.0

312.8
317.0
323.6

81.4

82.1
82.8
83.4

993.1
1,004.5
1,033.7

262.6

260.0
266.6
268.6

2014

100.0

1.6

19.4

5.1

18.9

4.6

5.0

11.6

10.7

19.6

3.6

- 

Chain-linked volumes (prices for the previous year)
quarter-on-quarter percentage changes

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

0.3

0.6
0.3
0.3

-0.7
-0.2
0.9

0.8

1.1
1.5
1.4

0.3

0.6
0.3
0.3

-0.7
-0.2
0.9

0.8

1.1
1.5
1.4

-1.4

0.9
0.0
0.7

-3.4
3.2
3.2

-0.2

0.3
0.4
0.2

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.1
0.1
0.1

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1

1.0
0.4
0.0

-1.0
-0.6
0.5

0.2

0.5

0.6
-0.4
-0.2

-5.8
-3.5
-0.6

-1.0

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.6
0.2
0.5

0.5
0.8
0.4
annual percentage changes

0.4
0.2
-0.4

-0.6
-0.8
1.3

1.4

2.2
2.5
1.9

1.8

-0.7
-2.1
-0.1

0.5

0.4

0.1
0.3
0.6

0.2
1.1
1.2

1.2

0.4

0.9
0.9
0.5

-0.5
0.1
1.4

1.8

1.6
2.3
2.1
contributions to quarter-on-quarter percentage changes in value added; percentage points

-0.7
0.4
0.5

1.1
1.2
0.3

1.3
1.8
1.5

2.3
2.7
2.7

1.5
1.7
1.8

1.2
1.1
1.4

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
contributions to annual percentage changes in value added; percentage points

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.0
0.1

-0.2
-0.1
0.1

0.0

0.2
0.3
0.3

-0.3
-0.2
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.1
-0.2
0.2

0.3

0.3
0.3
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.0

0.1
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.1

0.1
0.1
0.2

-0.1
0.0
0.1

0.2

0.2
0.3
0.3

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

0.2

0.4
0.0
0.3

0.0
0.4
0.5

0.4

0.6
0.7
0.9

0.0

0.1
0.0
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.1

0.1
0.1
0.2

0.1

0.3
0.5
0.4

-0.8
-0.5
0.9

1.0

0.9
1.3
1.3

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.3

0.0
1.2
0.4

-2.6
-1.2
1.0

2.2

2.2
2.7
2.9

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

S 9
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics3 Economic activity

3.3 Employment 1)
(quarterly data seasonally adjusted; annual data unadjusted)

Total    By employment

   status

   By economic activity

Employ-

ees employed

Self- Agricul- Manufac-
turing,
ture,
energy
forestry
and
and
utilities
fishing

Con-
struc-
tion

Trade,

Infor- Finance

Real Professional, Public adminis-

transport, mation
and
accom-
modation
com-
and food munica-
tion
services

and estate business and
support
services

insur-
ance

Arts,
tration, edu- entertainment
and other
services

cation, health
and
social work

1

2

3

4

5

6

7
Persons employed 

8

9

10

11

12

13

2012
2013
2014

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

100.0
100.0
100.0

-0.4
-0.7
0.6

0.8

0.9
1.0
1.1

100.0
100.0
100.0

-1.6
-1.4
0.6

1.0

0.8
1.1
1.3

-1.2
-0.8
0.0

0.1

-0.1
0.1
0.3

84.9
85.0
85.1

-0.5
-0.6
0.7

1.0

1.1
1.1
1.3

80.0
80.1
80.3

-1.6
-1.4
0.8

1.2

1.0
1.3
1.6

-1.1
-0.7
0.1

0.1

0.0
0.2
0.3

15.1
15.0
14.9

0.0
-1.0
-0.3

-0.2

-0.1
0.2
-0.2

20.0
19.9
19.7

-1.5
-1.8
-0.4

0.1

-0.1
0.3
0.2

-1.6
-0.8
-0.1

0.4

0.0
0.1
0.4

3.4
3.4
3.4

-1.1
-1.6
0.6

0.2

-0.3
0.3
0.1

4.4
4.4
4.4

-2.3
-1.4
0.1

0.7

0.8
1.0
0.7

-1.2
0.2
-0.5

0.5

1.1
0.7
0.5

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
1) Data for employment are based on the ESA 2010.

as a percentage of total persons employed

15.4
15.3
15.2

-0.7
-1.3
-0.1

0.3

0.3
0.2
0.4

24.8
6.4
24.8
6.2
6.0
24.8
annual percentage changes

2.7
2.7
2.7

-4.4
-4.2
-1.8

-1.4

-0.1
0.9
-0.3

-0.6
-0.8
0.7

0.9

1.2
1.0
1.2

1.1
0.3
0.8

0.6

0.5
1.0
1.5

2.7
2.7
2.7

-0.4
-1.0
-0.9

-0.5

-0.3
0.4
0.0

Hours worked
as a percentage of total hours worked

15.7
15.7
15.7

-2.2
-1.5
0.4

1.0

0.5
0.9
1.0

-1.5
-0.2
0.5

0.7

0.2
0.6
0.5

25.8
7.2
25.8
6.9
6.7
25.8
annual percentage changes

2.8
2.9
2.9

-6.8
-5.5
-1.7

-1.1

-0.3
1.2
0.4

-1.7
-1.6
0.6

0.8

0.7
0.7
1.0

0.7
-0.1
1.2

1.4

0.6
1.5
2.6

2.8
2.8
2.7

-1.0
-1.6
-1.0

-0.8

-0.6
0.4
-0.2

Hours worked per person employed
annual percentage changes

-2.5
-1.4
0.1

0.4

-0.3
0.3
0.7

-1.1
-0.8
-0.1

-0.1

-0.5
-0.3
-0.1

-0.4
-0.4
0.3

0.8

0.2
0.5
1.0

-0.6
-0.6
0.0

-0.3

-0.3
0.0
-0.2

1.0
1.0
1.0

0.2
-1.9
1.0

1.6

1.5
2.5
2.4

1.0
1.0
1.0

-0.8
-3.1
0.7

1.6

2.4
3.3
3.7

-1.0
-1.3
-0.3

0.0

0.9
0.8
1.3

12.7
12.9
13.0

0.8
0.3
1.9

2.4

2.7
2.8
3.0

12.4
12.5
12.7

-0.3
-0.8
2.0

2.9

2.5
3.3
3.7

-1.1
-1.0
0.1

0.4

-0.2
0.4
0.7

23.8
24.0
24.1

0.0
0.2
0.8

0.8

0.6
0.6
0.8

21.6
21.8
21.9

-0.5
-0.4
1.0

0.9

0.6
0.6
0.9

-0.5
-0.5
0.2

0.1

0.0
-0.1
0.1

7.0
7.0
7.1

0.4
-0.2
0.7

1.8

0.7
1.0
1.0

6.3
6.3
6.3

-0.8
-1.4
0.0

1.2

1.2
1.2
1.2

-1.2
-1.2
-0.6

-0.6

0.4
0.2
0.2

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 10
S 10

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
3 Economic activity

3.4 Labour force, unemployment and job vacancies
(seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise indicated)

Labour

Under-
force, employ-
ment,
% of

millions 1)

   Total

labour Millions % of
force 1)
labour
force

   Unemployment

   By age

   By gender

Job
vacancy
rate 2)

   Adult

   Youth

   Male

   Female

Long-term
unemploy-
ment,
% of

labour Millions
force 1)

1

2

3

4

5

% of total
in 2013

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

159.111
159.334
160.307

160.956

160.089
160.461
160.554

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

100.0

18.187
19.231
18.633

18.428

17.962
17.717
17.263

17.667
17.370
17.290
17.130
17.054
16.924

4.0
4.6
4.6

4.6

4.7
4.6
4.4

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

11.4
12.0
11.6

11.5

11.2
11.0
10.8

11.0
10.8
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.5

5.2
5.9
6.1

6.1

5.9
5.7
5.3

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

6

81.3

14.631
15.638
15.221

15.115

14.733
14.524
14.121

14.473
14.250
14.136
13.976
13.870
13.757

% of Millions

% of Millions

% of Millions

labour
force

7

10.1
10.8
10.4

10.3

10.1
9.9
9.6

9.9
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4

8

18.7

3.555
3.594
3.413

3.313

3.230
3.193
3.143

3.194
3.120
3.154
3.154
3.184
3.167

labour
force

9

23.6
24.3
23.7

23.2

22.7
22.6
22.4

22.6
22.3
22.5
22.4
22.6
22.5

10

53.6

9.754
10.309
9.931

9.799

9.524
9.417
9.170

9.386
9.232
9.173
9.104
9.109
9.041

labour
force

11

11.2
11.9
11.5

11.3

11.0
10.9
10.6

10.9
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.5
10.4

12

46.4

8.433
8.922
8.702

8.628

8.439
8.300
8.093

8.281
8.138
8.116
8.026
7.945
7.883

% of % of total
posts

labour
force

13

14

11.5
12.1
11.8

11.6

11.4
11.2
10.9

11.2
11.0
11.0
10.8
10.7
10.6

1.6
1.5
1.7

1.8

1.7
1.7
1.6

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
1) Not seasonally adjusted.
2) The job vacancy rate is equal to the number of job vacancies divided by the sum of the number of occupied posts and the number of job vacancies, expressed as a percentage.

3.5 Short-term business statistics

   Industrial production

   Total
   (excluding construction)

   Main Industrial Groupings

Con- ECB indicator
on industrial
new orders Total

struction
produc-
tion

   Retail sales

Food, Non-food

Fuel

beverages,
tobacco

New
passenger
car regis-
trations

Manu-

Inter- Capital Consumer Energy

facturing mediate
goods

goods

goods

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

100.0

86.0

33.6

29.2

22.5

14.7

100.0

100.0 100.0

10

39.3

11

51.5

12

9.1

13

100.0

% of total
in 2010

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

-0.7
0.8
. 

1.6
1.3
1.7
. 

1.8
2.1
1.4
2.0
1.1
. 

0.8
-0.5
-0.2
0.8
-0.7
. 

-0.7
1.7
. 

1.1
1.7
2.0
. 

1.6
2.8
1.8
2.2
1.6
. 

0.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.6
-0.4
. 

-1.0
1.2
. 

-0.1
0.9
0.8
. 

0.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
2.1
. 

-0.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.7
. 

-0.6
1.8
. 

1.1
2.7
2.5
. 

1.8
4.0
1.9
3.4
1.2
. 

annual percentage changes

-0.4
2.6
. 

2.4
0.9
2.6
. 

3.0
3.1
1.8
1.1
1.2
. 

-0.8
-5.5
. 

4.6
-1.1
-0.1
. 

3.8
-2.3
-1.8
1.0
-2.8
. 

-2.3
1.7
. 

-1.6
-0.6
-0.5
. 

-0.3
-1.4
0.1
0.8
2.1
. 

month-on-month percentage changes (s.a.)

1.7
-0.9
-0.2
1.3
-1.9
. 

1.2
0.2
-1.6
0.9
-0.1
. 

2.0
-3.7
1.5
1.6
-4.3
. 

0.4
0.5
-0.7
0.6
0.8
. 

-0.1
3.3
. 

1.1
5.5
2.1
. 

3.2
3.3
-0.1
0.6
. 
. 

-1.6
-1.7
-1.9
1.6
. 
. 

-0.8
1.2
. 

2.3
2.5
3.1
. 

3.5
2.6
3.2
2.4
1.4
. 

0.6
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
. 

-0.9
0.3
. 

1.1
1.3
2.2
. 

2.3
2.7
1.6
1.1
0.8
. 

0.5
0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
. 

-0.6
2.2
. 

-0.9
0.0
. 

3.4
3.5
3.8
. 

4.2
2.7
4.7
3.3
1.8
. 

0.6
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.4
. 

2.3
2.7
3.2
. 

3.2
4.3
2.2
1.8
1.8
. 

0.1
1.7
-0.7
-0.1
-0.7
. 

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations, ECB experimental statistics (col. 8) and European Automobile Manufacturers Association (col. 13).

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

-4.4
3.8
8.9

9.0
6.9
9.4
10.4

9.9
8.3
9.8
5.8
10.9
15.1

1.9
-0.5
0.8
-1.0
2.5
8.0

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3 Economic activity

3.6 Opinion surveys
(seasonally adjusted)

   European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys
   (percentage balances, unless otherwise indicated)

   Purchasing Managersʼ Surveys
   (diffusion indices)

Economic   Manufacturing industry Consumer Construction
confidence
sentiment
indicator
indicator

confidence
indicator

Retail
trade
confid-

   Service industries

Services
ence confidence
indicator

indicator

Purchasing
Managersʼ
Capacity Index (PMI)
for manu-
utilisation
facturing
(%)

facturing
output

Manu- Business Composite
activity
output
for
services

Industrial Capacity
(long-term confidence utilisation
(%)

indicator

average
= 100)

1999-13

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

1

100.2

93.8
101.6
104.3

102.6
103.7
104.6
106.3

104.0
104.1
105.6
106.1
106.1
106.8

2

-6.1

-9.1
-3.9
-3.1

-4.0
-3.2
-3.0
-2.4

-2.9
-3.7
-2.3
-2.0
-3.2
-2.0

3

80.9

78.7
80.4
. 

81.1
81.1
81.3
. 

81.1
- 
- 
81.5
- 
- 

4

-12.7

-18.5
-10.0
-6.1

-6.2
-5.1
-6.9
-6.4

-7.0
-6.7
-7.0
-7.5
-5.9
-5.7

5

-13.8

-29.2
-27.4
-22.9

-24.9
-24.9
-23.2
-18.7

-23.8
-22.7
-23.2
-20.7
-17.8
-17.6

6

-8.7

-12.2
-3.2
1.5

-1.6
-0.2
2.9
4.9

1.1
3.5
4.2
6.4
5.6
2.8

7

6.6

-5.4
4.8
9.1

5.6
7.6
10.5
12.7

8.9
10.1
12.4
12.3
12.8
13.1

8

- 

87.1
87.6
. 

88.2
88.3
88.4
. 

88.1
- 
- 
88.7
- 
- 

9

10

11

51.0

49.6
51.8
52.2

51.4
52.3
52.3
52.8

52.4
52.3
52.0
52.3
52.8
53.2

52.4

50.6
53.3
53.4

52.6
53.4
53.6
54.0

53.6
53.9
53.4
53.6
54.0
54.5

52.9

49.3
52.5
54.0

53.6
54.1
54.0
54.2

54.0
54.4
53.7
54.1
54.2
54.2

12

52.7

49.7
52.7
53.8

53.3
53.9
53.9
54.1

53.9
54.3
53.6
53.9
54.2
54.3

Sources: European Commission (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) (col. 1-8) and Markit (col. 9-12).

3.7 Summary accounts for households and non-financial corporations
(current prices, unless otherwise indicated; not seasonally adjusted)

   Households

   Non-financial corporations

Saving Debt Real gross

Financial Non-financial

ratio ratio disposable investment

(gross) 1)

income

investment worth

(gross)

Net Hous-
ing
 2) wealth

share 3)

Profit Saving
ratio
(net)

Debt
ratio 4)

investment

Financial Non-financial
investment
(gross)

Finan-
cing

   Percentage of
   gross disposable
   income (adjusted)

   Annual percentage changes

   Percentage of net
   value added

Percent-
age of
GDP

   Annual percentage changes

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

1

2

12.5 97.8
12.7 96.4
12.7 95.7

12.7 95.7

12.7 95.3
12.8 95.0
.

.

3

-1.8
-0.4
0.7

0.9

2.0
2.2
1.8

4

1.7
1.3
1.9

1.9

1.8
1.9
2.0

5

6

-5.1
-4.1
1.0

0.9

-0.5
-0.5
1.0

0.6
0.4
2.6

2.7

3.7
2.6
2.4

7

-3.0
-1.8
1.1

1.1

1.4
1.5
2.0

8

31.0
31.9
31.7

31.7

31.9
32.6
33.0

9

1.7
3.1
3.3

3.3

3.6
4.2
4.9

10

134.4
131.9
132.6

132.6

134.7
134.2
133.1

11

1.5
2.3
1.8

1.7

2.5
3.0
3.6

12

-6.7
-0.8
3.6

1.4

2.2
5.0
2.8

13

1.2
1.0
1.0

1.0

1.4
1.6
1.9

Sources: ECB and Eurostat.
1) Based on four-quarter cumulated sums of both saving and gross disposable income (adjusted for the change in the net equity of households in pension fund reserves).
2) Financial assets (net of financial liabilities) and non-financial assets. Non-financial assets consist mainly of housing wealth (residential structures and land). They also include

non-financial assets of unincorporated enterprises classified within the household sector.

3) The profit share uses net entrepreneurial income, which is broadly equivalent to current profits in business accounting. 
4) Based on the outstanding amount of loans, debt securities, trade credits and pension scheme liabilities.

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3 Economic activity

3.8 Euro area balance of payments, current and capital accounts
(EUR billions; seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated; transactions)

   Total

   Goods

   Services

   Primary income    Secondary income

   Current account

   Capital
   account 1)

Credit

Debit

Net Credit

Debit

Credit

Debit

Credit

Debit

Credit

Debit

Credit

Debit

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

863.3

876.7
896.6
886.8

297.7
297.4
293.6
295.8
297.3
293.1

792.3

796.8
817.1
810.3

271.5
271.7
270.5
268.1
271.7
266.7

71.0

79.9
79.5
76.5

26.2
25.8
23.1
27.7
25.6
26.4

506.3

512.8
525.4
516.2

175.3
174.4
170.2
171.6
172.5
169.1

432.3

437.5
444.8
434.1

147.7
145.7
144.9
143.5
144.5
142.1

179.5

184.3
188.0
189.6

62.9
62.8
63.4
63.4
63.8
63.6

164.8

169.4
171.8
174.0

57.7
58.1
58.0
57.9
58.6
57.6

153.3

154.1
156.8
156.0

51.0
52.1
51.2
52.7
52.2
51.8

12-month cumulated transactions

136.8

130.4
141.6
144.0

46.8
48.5
48.2
47.3
48.7
47.2

10

24.1

25.5
26.4
25.0

8.5
8.1
8.8
8.1
8.7
8.7

11

58.5

59.5
58.9
58.2

19.2
19.4
19.4
19.4
19.9
19.7

12

12.7

8.7
9.6
9.6

3.3
3.3
3.4
3.0
4.5
3.9

13

6.0

7.5
37.3
3.9

34.4
1.4
1.0
1.5
1.9
1.8

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

2015 Nov. 

3,539.8

3,227.6

312.2 2,065.6
12-month cumulated transactions as a percentage of GDP

1,747.1

749.5

687.7

622.3

556.9

102.3

235.9

42.1

55.7

2015 Nov. 

34.3

31.3

3.0

20.0

16.9

7.3

6.7

6.0

5.4

1.0

2.3

0.4

0.5

1) The capital account is not seasonally adjusted.

3.9 Euro area external trade in goods 1), values and volumes by product group 2)
(seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise indicated)

   Total (n.s.a.)

   Exports (f.o.b.)

   Imports (c.i.f.)

   Total

Memo item:

   Total

   Memo items:

Exports Imports

Intermediate Capital Consump-
tion
goods

goods

goods

Manu-
facturing

Intermediate Capital Consump-
tion
goods

goods

goods

Manu-
facturing

Oil

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 May 
         June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 

4.4

5.6
8.2
4.3

12.6
6.9
5.5
0.7
0.4
6.1

2.9

2.6
2.9
1.1

-2.7
7.9
3.0
2.0
-1.7
-1.7

0.6

1.9
4.2
0.8

7.0
0.7
2.7
-0.8
-0.7
4.5

2.3

5.2
2.7
3.1

-2.0
6.7
1.7
5.4
2.5
3.4

499.2

509.3
513.4
506.7

171.8
172.7
166.3
167.8
168.1
170.8

118.0

119.0
117.1
116.6

116.3
117.6
118.8
114.9
116.3
117.0

Values (EUR billions; annual percentage changes for columns 1 and 2)

237.3

241.7
242.4
234.6

80.6
79.5
77.6
77.4
79.6
. 

103.2

105.3
105.3
104.5

35.6
35.3
34.3
34.8
34.9
. 

145.9

149.5
153.5
153.7

51.6
52.5
50.7
50.5
50.8
. 

408.8

422.0
428.5
421.9

143.5
143.4
137.8
140.7
142.5
139.7

437.1

447.8
453.3
445.3

152.5
150.3
147.1
148.0
148.2
148.1

261.7

260.1
265.4
254.5

88.8
86.5
83.9
84.1
84.3
. 

64.1

70.2
70.3
69.7

23.6
23.3
23.0
23.3
24.5
. 

Volume indices (2000 = 100; annual percentage changes for columns 1 and 2)

113.8

115.3
113.6
111.6

112.9
113.8
112.7
111.0
111.2
. 

120.8

120.7
118.9
117.8

116.9
120.4
119.1
115.5
118.8
. 

122.2

123.3
121.6
122.5

120.3
122.4
125.4
121.4
120.9
. 

117.3

118.9
118.0
116.6

117.0
118.6
118.8
113.8
117.2
118.7

102.9

106.6
104.1
105.8

102.4
105.6
106.1
105.1
106.3
107.1

102.8

106.6
104.2
105.6

102.3
105.5
105.1
105.3
106.5
. 

101.9

106.9
103.4
104.8

100.9
103.7
106.2
103.4
104.7
. 

Sources: ECB and Eurostat.
1) Differences between ECBʼs b.o.p. goods (Table 3.8) and Eurostatʼs trade in goods (Table 3.9) are mainly due to different definitions.
2) Product groups as classified in the Broad Economic Categories.

104.2

109.7
110.8
112.9

37.7
37.7
37.6
37.6
37.3
. 

103.7

105.9
104.7
106.5

103.7
107.2
107.8
105.6
105.9
. 

294.2

315.1
317.2
316.2

107.4
106.3
103.8
106.1
107.0
106.5

66.1

55.4
60.0
50.9

19.7
18.2
17.0
15.7
15.5
. 

104.6

97.7

108.6 105.9
99.5
107.0
99.3
107.3

99.7
104.4
97.3
109.1
108.8
97.0
105.0 100.5
108.1 100.3
99.6
109.6

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4 Prices and costs

4.1 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices 1)
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

   Total

   Total (s.a.; percentage change vis-à-vis previous period)

Index:
2005
= 100

   Total

Goods Services

Total
excluding
food and
energy

Total Processed Unpro- Non-energy
industrial
goods

cessed
food

food

Energy Services
(n.s.a.)

   Memo item:
   Administered prices

Total HICP Adminis-
tered
prices

excluding
administered
prices

% of total
in 2015

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

% of total
in 2015

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

1

2

3

4

5

6

100.0 100.0

69.7

56.5

43.5

100.0

117.2
117.7
117.8

116.8
118.4
117.8
118.0

117.7
117.7
118.0
118.2
118.0
118.0

1.4
0.4
0.0

-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2

0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2

1.1
0.8
0.8

0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0

1.0
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9

1.3
-0.2
-0.8

-1.4
-0.5
-0.8
-0.6

-0.5
-0.7
-1.1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.5

1.4
1.2
1.2

1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2

1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.1

-
-
-

-0.3
0.5
0.0
-0.1

0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.3

7

12.2

-
-
-

0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2

0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0

8

7.5

-
-
-

0.6
0.7
0.5
0.8

-0.6
1.2
0.6
0.4
-0.2
-0.9

9

26.3

10

10.6

11

43.5

12

87.1

13

12.9

-
-
-

0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

-
-
-

-4.2
2.4
-2.5
-3.0

-0.7
-2.2
-1.7
-0.5
0.0
-1.8

-
-
-

0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2

0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

1.2
0.2
-0.1

-0.5
0.1
0.0
0.1

0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2

2.1
1.9
0.9

1.2
0.9
0.8
0.6

0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6

   Goods

   Services

   Food (including alcoholic
   beverages and tobacco)

Total Processed
food

Unpro-
cessed
food

14

19.7

15

12.2

2.7
0.5
1.0

0.3
1.1
1.2
1.4

0.9
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2

2.2
1.2
0.6

0.5
0.7
0.6
0.7

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7

16

7.5

3.5
-0.8
1.6

0.1
1.8
2.1
2.6

1.4
2.4
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.0

   Industrial goods

   Housing

Transport Communi- Recreation Miscel-
and laneous

cation

personal

Total

17

36.9

0.6
-0.5
-1.8

-2.3
-1.3
-1.8
-1.7

-1.3
-1.8
-2.4
-2.1
-1.7
-1.3

Non-energy
industrial
goods

Energy

Rents

18

26.3

0.6
0.1
0.3

-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.5

19

10.6

20

10.7

0.6
-1.9
-6.8

-7.7
-5.3
-7.2
-7.2

-5.6
-7.2
-8.9
-8.5
-7.3
-5.8

1.7
1.7
1.2

1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2

1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2

21

6.4

1.5
1.4
1.2

1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0

1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0

22

7.3

2.4
1.7
1.3

1.4
1.2
1.4
1.1

1.5
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.7

23

3.1

-4.2
-2.8
-0.8

-1.9
-0.9
-0.4
-0.1

-0.7
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1

24

14.8

2.2
1.4
1.5

1.3
1.4
1.6
1.5

1.6
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.3
1.5

25

7.5

0.7
1.3
1.2

1.2
1.2
1.0
1.2

1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

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4 Prices and costs

4.2 Industry, construction and property prices
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Total
(index:
2010 = 100)

   Industrial producer prices excluding construction

   Total

   Industry excluding construction and energy

Energy

Manu- Total

facturing

Intermediate Capital
goods

goods

   Consumer goods

Con-
struction

Residential
property
prices 1)

Experimental
indicator of
commercial
property
prices 1)

Total

Food, Non-
beverages food

and tobacco

% of total
in 2010

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

100.0 100.0

78.0

72.1

29.3

20.0

22.7

13.8

8.9

108.7
2.8
108.5 -0.2
106.9 -1.5

106.0 -1.9

104.5 -2.9
104.9 -2.1
104.0 -2.6

104.9 -2.1
104.7 -2.1
103.8 -2.7
103.5 -3.2
103.1 -3.2
102.9 -3.2

2.0
-0.1
-0.9

-1.6

-2.6
-1.6
-2.6

-1.7
-2.0
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-2.5

1.4
0.4
-0.3

-0.3

-0.6
-0.3
-0.5

-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7

0.7
-0.6
-1.1

-0.7

-1.5
-0.7
-1.1

-0.6
-0.7
-1.1
-1.6
-1.9
-2.0

1.0
0.6
0.4

0.6

0.7
0.7
0.6

0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6

2.5
1.7
0.1

-0.6

-0.7
-0.8
-0.6

-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2

3.5
2.6
-0.2

-1.2

-1.3
-1.4
-1.1

-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3

0.9
0.3
0.3

0.2

0.2
0.1
0.2

0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2

10

27.9

6.6
-1.6
-4.4

-5.8

-8.5
-6.5
-8.3

-6.8
-6.5
-8.2
-10.0
-9.8
-9.4

11

12

13

1.5
0.3
0.3

0.2

0.2
0.4
0.2

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

-1.6
-1.9
0.2

0.8

1.1
1.1
1.5

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

-0.1
-1.1
1.1

2.4

2.5
3.2
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations, and ECB calculations based on MSCI data and national sources (col. 13).
1) Experimental data based on non-harmonised sources (see http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/html/experiment.en.html for further details).

4.3 Commodity prices and GDP deflators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Total Total
(s.a.;
index:
2010
= 100)

Total

   GDP deflators

   Domestic demand

Exports 1)

Imports 1)

consump-

Private Govern-
ment
tion consump-

Gross
fixed
capital
tion formation

Oil prices
(EUR per
barrel)

   Non-energy commodity prices  (EUR)

   Import-weighted 2)

   Use-weighted 2)

Total Food Non-food Total Food Non-food

% of total

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

  100.0

35.0

65.0 100.0

45.0

103.7
104.6
. 

105.3
105.7
106.0
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

1.3
0.9
. 

1.0
1.3
1.3
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

1.0
0.5
. 

0.0
0.4
0.4
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

1.1
0.5
. 

-0.1
0.4
0.3
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

1.2
0.9
. 

0.5
0.8
0.6
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

0.5
0.5
. 

0.5
0.8
0.6
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

-0.3
-0.7
. 

-0.1
0.9
0.0
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

-1.3
-1.7
. 

-2.5
-1.2
-2.2
. 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

81.7
74.5
48.3

49.0
57.4
46.1
40.7

-9.0 -13.4
-1.6
-8.8
5.2
-4.1

-0.4
-0.5
-6.5
-9.2

-6.9
-12.1
-9.0

-4.9
-2.0
-13.1
-16.2

-8.3 -10.1
0.7
-4.6
4.9
-0.8

5.6
4.0
-3.3
-9.5

-3.6
51.7
-8.1
43.0
-7.9
43.3
-8.3
43.9
42.8
-8.0
35.7 -11.2

0.5
-11.0
-4.4
-14.4
-6.0
-13.8
-6.9
-14.6
-15.6
-8.7
-18.5 -12.7

8.7
2.1
6.5
3.9

11.1
4.4
3.9
3.8
6.1
1.9

11.6
5.6
5.8
-3.2

9.8
5.2
2.4
0.8
-1.8
-8.3

Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations and Thomson Reuters (col. 9).
1) Deflators for exports and imports refer to goods and services and include cross-border trade within the euro area.
2) Import-weighted: weighted according to 2004-06 average import structure; use-weighted: weighted according to 2004-06 average domestic demand structure.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

15

55.0

-6.9
-8.7
-5.6

0.7
2.6
-10.6
-14.8

-7.1
-12.1
-12.6
-13.3
-14.7
-16.5

S 15
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4 Prices and costs

4.4 Price-related opinion surveys
(seasonally adjusted)

   European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys
   (percentage balances)

   Purchasing Managersʼ Surveys
   (diffusion indices)

   Selling price expectations
   (for next three months)

Manu-
facturing

Retail trade

Services

Construction

Consumer
price trends
over past
12 months

   Input prices

   Prices charged

Manu-
facturing

Services

Manu-
facturing

Services

1

4.8

-0.3
-0.8
-2.6

-5.5
-1.1
-1.8
-2.0

-0.1
-2.0
-3.3
-2.3
-0.7
-3.0

2

- 

1.7
-1.4
1.4

-0.7
3.3
1.1
1.9

0.8
3.0
-0.6
2.1
2.4
1.3

3

- 

-1.2
1.2
2.7

1.4
3.0
2.4
4.0

2.1
2.2
2.9
4.8
4.3
2.8

4

-1.8

-17.1
-17.6
-13.6

-17.0
-15.4
-13.0
-8.9

-14.0
-13.0
-12.1
-10.3
-9.1
-7.2

5

34.1

29.9
14.4
-1.0

-2.4
-0.8
-0.1
-0.8

0.9
0.3
-1.6
-2.3
-0.4
0.3

6

57.7

48.5
49.6
48.9

45.8
54.7
49.5
45.6

54.4
49.6
44.6
44.3
45.6
47.0

7

56.7

53.8
53.5
53.5

52.5
54.4
53.6
53.6

54.3
53.1
53.5
54.0
53.3
53.5

8

- 

49.4
49.7
49.6

48.8
50.4
49.9
49.2

50.4
50.5
48.7
48.6
49.3
49.8

9

49.9

47.8
48.2
49.0

47.6
49.0
49.9
49.6

49.5
49.9
50.4
49.9
49.6
49.4

1999-13

2013
2014
2015

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 
         Q4 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

Sources: European Commission (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs) and Markit.

4.5 Labour cost indices
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

Total
(index:
2012 = 100)

1

100.0

100.0
101.4
102.7

108.0

97.6
108.2
101.6

Total

   By component

   For selected economic activities

Wages and
salaries

Employersʼ social
contributions

Business economy

Mainly non-business
economy

2

100.0

2.3
1.5
1.3

1.2

1.9
1.6
1.1

3

74.6

2.3
1.5
1.3

1.1

2.1
2.0
1.4

4

25.4

2.4
1.1
1.3

1.5

1.1
0.3
0.1

5

69.3

2.6
1.2
1.3

1.1

2.0
1.6
1.2

6

30.7

1.7
1.9
1.3

1.3

1.5
1.4
0.8

Memo item:
Indicator of
negotiated
wages 1)

7

2.2
1.8
1.7

1.7

1.4
1.5
1.5

% of total
in 2012

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
1) Experimental data based on non-harmonised sources (see http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/intro/html/experiment.en.html for further details).

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4 Prices and costs

4.6 Unit labour costs, compensation per labour input and labour productivity
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated; quarterly data seasonally adjusted; annual data unadjusted)

Total Total

(index:
2010
=100)

   By economic activity

Agriculture,
forestry

Manu-

Con-
facturing, struction

Trade,

Information
transport, and commu-

and fishing energy and
utilities

accom-
modation and
food services

nication insurance

Finance

Real Professional,

and estate business and ministration,
education,
health and
social work

support
services

Public ad- Arts, enter-
tainment
and other
services

1

2

3

4

5

6
Unit labour costs 

7

8

9

10

11

12

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

102.5
103.7
104.9

105.2

105.3
105.5
105.6

103.6
105.2
106.7

107.3

107.7
107.9
108.1

101.0
101.4
101.7

102.0

102.3
102.3
102.3

104.8
107.2
108.6

109.1

109.4
109.5
109.6

102.3
103.5
103.8

103.8

104.2
104.2
104.0

1.9
1.2
1.1

1.3

0.9
0.7
0.6

1.5
1.6
1.4

1.4

1.2
1.3
1.1

-0.4
0.4
0.3

0.1

0.4
0.6
0.5

2.6
2.3
1.3

1.2

1.3
1.1
0.8

0.7
1.2
0.3

0.0

0.4
0.4
0.3

Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.

2.6
-1.1
-3.9

-0.8

0.3
1.2
1.4

0.2
3.8
-1.4

-1.2

0.9
1.3
1.5

-2.3
5.0
2.6

-0.4

0.6
0.1
0.0

2.2
3.7
-0.7

-1.0

0.9
0.4
1.0

-1.1
4.7
3.1

-0.9

-0.5
-0.6
-0.5

2.1
2.1
1.6

2.2

0.9
0.4
0.3

1.9
2.8
2.2

2.1

1.9
1.9
1.4

-0.3
0.6
0.6

-0.1

1.0
1.6
1.1

3.3
2.9
1.7

1.5

1.7
1.4
0.8

1.2
0.9
0.1

-0.7

0.8
0.9
0.5

4.0
0.5
0.5

0.9

1.6
1.1
0.4

2.4
1.2
1.7

1.3

0.9
0.6
1.2

1.7
0.9
0.8

0.9

0.8
0.6
0.6

0.4
-1.4
1.1

1.6

0.7
1.0
1.1

Compensation per employee 

1.7
0.9
1.4

1.3

1.0
1.4
1.2

1.4
0.8
2.1

2.7

1.8
2.4
1.7

Labour productivity per person employed

-1.5
0.7
1.2

0.5

-0.7
-0.5
0.8

0.0
0.0
0.6

0.5

0.3
0.7
0.6

1.1
2.2
1.1

1.2

1.1
1.3
0.6

Compensation per hour worked 

5.0
2.6
1.5

0.9

0.5
-0.1
0.0

1.0
2.2
1.1

0.1

-0.4
-0.8
0.1

2.9
1.8
1.5

1.4

1.5
1.5
1.1

1.7
0.9
1.7

1.8

1.0
1.4
0.7

Hourly labour productivity

1.2
0.8
0.7

0.6

0.8
1.0
0.8

1.5
2.6
0.8

0.4

1.0
0.8
-0.4

1.2
3.1
0.6

1.1

0.1
0.7
1.6

0.9
2.0
1.4

2.1

1.5
1.4
1.8

-0.3
-1.1
0.8

1.0

1.4
0.8
0.3

1.2
2.6
1.3

2.2

2.0
1.6
2.2

0.3
-0.5
0.9

1.2

1.7
0.8
0.5

0.9
-2.8
1.3

1.8

3.2
2.9
3.0

0.9
0.2
1.5

1.5

3.0
1.5
2.0

0.0
3.0
0.2

-0.3

-0.3
-1.4
-1.0

1.4
1.6
1.3

1.3

2.6
0.4
1.5

1.0
4.4
0.5

-0.4

-1.2
-2.2
-2.3

3.3
1.1
2.3

2.4

2.3
1.3
1.4

1.9
1.0
1.7

1.7

1.8
1.2
1.1

-1.4
-0.1
-0.5

-0.6

-0.4
-0.1
-0.3

2.9
2.2
1.3

1.2

2.0
0.8
0.6

-0.2
0.9
-0.6

-1.0

-0.2
-0.5
-1.0

0.8
1.4
1.3

1.5

1.1
1.1
0.9

0.8
1.7
0.9

1.1

1.0
1.1
0.9

0.0
0.2
-0.4

-0.3

-0.1
0.0
0.0

1.3
2.1
0.7

1.0

1.0
1.2
0.9

0.5
0.8
-0.5

-0.5

0.0
0.1
-0.1

2.8
2.0
0.9

1.1

0.4
0.3
-0.2

1.6
1.7
1.1

0.3

0.5
0.6
0.1

-1.2
-0.3
0.3

-0.9

0.1
0.4
0.3

2.8
2.9
1.8

1.0

-0.3
0.4
-0.3

0.0
0.9
0.9

-0.3

-0.3
0.1
0.1

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 17
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics5 Money and credit

5.1 Monetary aggregates 1)
(EUR billions and annual growth rates; seasonally adjusted; outstanding amounts and growth rates at end of period; transactions during period)

   M3

   M2

   M3-M2

   M1

   M2-M1

Currency Overnight
deposits

in
circulation

Deposits

Deposits
with an redeemable
at notice
agreed
of up to
maturity
of up to
3 months
2 years

Repos

Money
market
fund
shares

Debt
securities
with
a maturity
of up to
2 years

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

864.1
909.7
968.5

968.5

993.5
1,014.0
1,028.2

1,014.0
1,020.2
1,025.0
1,028.2
1,029.9
1,037.4

4,233.3
4,476.3
4,952.5

4,952.5

5,155.4
5,298.8
5,425.3

5,298.8
5,364.7
5,383.8
5,425.3
5,487.5
5,543.3

5,097.4
5,386.1
5,921.1

5,921.1

6,148.9
6,312.8
6,453.5

6,312.8
6,384.9
6,408.8
6,453.5
6,517.5
6,580.8

20.4
45.6
58.2

20.0

23.8
20.5
14.3

7.6
6.3
4.7
3.2
1.7
7.5

2.4
5.3
6.4

6.4

7.3
8.8
8.3

8.8
8.9
8.6
8.3
8.1
8.0

294.0
250.4
379.6

147.3

166.9
151.6
129.0

45.8
61.9
24.5
42.7
58.1
47.4

7.4
5.9
8.5

8.5

10.6
12.4
12.4

12.4
12.9
12.1
12.4
12.5
11.8

314.4
295.9
437.8

167.3

190.6
172.0
143.3

53.4
68.2
29.2
45.9
59.8
54.9

6.5
5.8
8.1

8.1

10.1
11.8
11.7

11.8
12.2
11.5
11.7
11.8
11.2

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.

1,798.6
1,683.3
1,598.4

1,598.4

1,529.1
1,480.0
1,449.1

1,480.0
1,471.3
1,460.3
1,449.1
1,438.3
1,448.0

-38.5
-114.4
-91.0

-47.4

-56.8
-47.7
-35.3

-8.8
-13.8
-9.4
-12.2
-12.1
7.3

-2.1
-6.4
-5.4

-5.4

-7.6
-10.7
-11.4

-10.7
-11.4
-11.3
-11.4
-10.9
-9.9

Outstanding amounts

2,099.6
2,142.8
2,149.2

2,149.2

2,150.0
2,160.7
2,164.6

2,160.7
2,161.8
2,164.0
2,164.6
2,164.4
2,162.7

3,898.2
3,826.1
3,747.6

3,747.6

3,679.0
3,640.7
3,613.7

3,640.7
3,633.2
3,624.3
3,613.7
3,602.7
3,610.7

8,995.6
9,212.1
9,668.7

9,668.7

9,827.9
9,953.5
10,067.2

9,953.5
10,018.1
10,033.1
10,067.2
10,120.2
10,191.5

Transactions

115.5
45.5
3.6

-5.5

1.6
11.0
3.1

3.8
1.2
2.3
-0.4
-0.3
-1.8

77.0
-68.9
-87.3

-52.9

-55.3
-36.6
-32.3

-4.9
-12.6
-7.1
-12.6
-12.4
5.4

Growth rates

5.9
2.2
0.2

0.2

0.1
0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.3

2.0
-1.8
-2.3

-2.3

-3.3
-4.4
-4.7

-4.4
-4.7
-4.6
-4.7
-4.3
-4.1

391.4
227.0
350.5

114.5

135.4
135.4
111.0

48.5
55.6
22.1
33.3
47.4
60.4

4.5
2.5
3.8

3.8

4.6
5.2
5.2

5.2
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.3

126.0
121.4
123.9

123.9

125.8
90.3
98.4

90.3
105.0
102.4
98.4
106.8
91.4

-16.9
-11.6
1.0

-3.1

0.6
-35.2
8.2

-19.7
14.5
-2.3
-4.1
8.2
-15.8

-11.4
-9.2
0.8

0.8

5.1
-30.9
-23.0

-30.9
-19.2
-21.1
-23.0
-18.8
-29.7

483.3
418.1
427.7

427.7

437.5
441.1
457.6

441.1
456.2
446.2
457.6
473.1
484.2

-20.2
-48.7
10.8

10.1

5.6
3.6
18.7

-3.0
15.1
2.2
1.3
15.5
11.3

-3.9
-10.4
2.6

2.6

5.3
6.9
9.0

6.9
8.0
9.5
9.0
10.0
12.0

181.0
86.5
104.7

104.7

96.6
98.6
73.2

98.6
86.5
80.4
73.2
77.3
82.7

-18.3
-63.3
12.7

19.1

-9.3
3.9
-18.5

4.8
-11.9
-2.6
-4.0
4.9
5.5

-9.7
-38.0
18.7

18.7

11.7
23.7
-1.6

23.7
17.6
8.2
-1.6
7.1
8.2

9,786.0
790.4
626.0
9,838.1
656.3 10,325.0

656.3 10,325.0

659.9 10,487.8
629.9 10,583.4
629.1 10,696.3

629.9 10,583.4
647.6 10,665.7
629.0 10,662.1
629.1 10,696.3
657.1 10,777.3
658.4 10,849.8

-55.4
-123.6
24.6

26.1

-3.0
-27.7
8.4

-17.9
17.7
-2.6
-6.7
28.6
0.9

-6.5
-16.1
4.0

4.0

5.6
0.6
0.7

0.6
2.8
2.4
0.7
3.1
2.6

335.9
103.4
375.0

140.6

132.4
107.7
119.4

30.6
73.3
19.5
26.6
76.0
61.3

3.5
1.0
3.8

3.8

4.7
4.9
4.9

4.9
5.2
4.9
4.9
5.3
5.1

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 18
S 18

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
   
5 Money and credit

5.2 Deposits in M3 1)
(EUR billions and annual growth rates; seasonally adjusted; outstanding amounts and growth rates at end of period; transactions during period)

   Non-financial corporations 2) 

   Households 3) 

Total Overnight

With an Redeem- Repos
agreed
maturity
of up to
2 years

able
at notice
of up to
3 months

Total Overnight

With an Redeem- Repos
agreed
maturity
of up to
2 years

able
at notice
of up to
3 months

Financial
corpor-
ations
other than
MFIs and
ICPFs 2)

Insurance

Other
corpor- general
ations govern-
and ment 4)

pension
funds

1

2

3

4

5

7
Outstanding amounts 

6

8

9

10

11

12

13

2012
2013
2014

1,618.4
1,710.5
1,814.9

1,101.2
1,186.7
1,318.7

2014 Q4 

1,814.9

1,318.7

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

1,848.1
1,858.0
1,900.8

1,858.0
2015 June 
1,889.2
         July 
1,889.1
         Aug. 
1,900.8
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
1,937.2
         Nov. (p) 1,933.9

1,381.7
1,410.7
1,451.1

1,410.7
1,438.2
1,441.8
1,451.1
1,493.5
1,486.8

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

71.7
98.2
69.3

6.8

29.3
13.5
42.2

4.8
27.3
2.6
12.2
34.4
-8.0

4.7
6.1
4.0

4.0

4.7
4.3
5.1

4.3
5.5
4.8
5.1
7.0
5.4

99.5
90.1
91.2

19.6

48.9
31.8
40.8

7.7
25.8
5.6
9.4
40.8
-10.3

9.8
8.2
7.6

7.6

9.9
10.6
10.8

10.6
12.1
11.2
10.8
12.9
10.6

404.8
397.8
365.8

365.8

340.2
322.7
324.2

322.7
325.1
325.2
324.2
316.6
321.3

-33.9
-6.9
-25.6

-15.3

-14.9
-16.6
0.3

-3.2
0.1
0.7
-0.5
-8.0
3.6

-7.7
-1.7
-6.4

-6.4

-9.8
-13.9
-12.3

-13.9
-14.0
-13.3
-12.3
-11.5
-11.1

101.9
109.8
111.4

111.4

111.4
112.4
115.3

112.4
113.4
114.0
115.3
116.9
116.8

10.2
9.1
1.2

-1.8

-0.1
1.0
3.1

0.3
1.1
0.7
1.3
1.6
-0.2

13.6
8.9
1.1

1.1

0.5
0.9
1.9

0.9
1.0
1.2
1.9
2.4
1.8

10.5
16.2
19.2

19.2

14.9
12.2
10.1

12.2
12.6
8.2
10.1
10.1
9.1

-4.1
5.9
2.4

4.4

-4.6
-2.6
-2.1

0.1
0.4
-4.4
2.0
0.0
-1.2

-26.5
56.4
14.4

14.4

-5.4
-23.5
-32.3

-23.5
-10.7
-48.2
-32.3
-26.4
-31.7

5,309.1
5,413.6
5,557.2

2,358.9
2,539.7
2,751.2

5,557.2

2,751.2

5,598.2
5,647.1
5,695.2

5,647.1
5,664.6
5,674.5
5,695.2
5,706.0
5,726.9

2,839.3
2,910.6
2,987.2

2,910.6
2,942.4
2,959.9
2,987.2
3,002.8
3,032.2

Transactions

976.4
874.7
809.5

809.5

762.8
735.0
707.3

735.0
722.4
714.7
707.3
705.5
698.4

1,962.8
1,994.5
1,993.5

1,993.5

1,992.3
1,998.7
1,997.6

1,998.7
1,996.7
1,996.8
1,997.6
1,994.3
1,992.5

10.9
4.7
3.0

3.0

3.8
2.8
3.0

2.8
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.5
3.8

222.7
107.9
141.1

99.7
182.4
209.7

35.3
-100.1
-65.8

100.4
31.9
-1.1

-12.7
-6.2
-1.7

30.0

38.8
50.8
48.4

23.6
16.6
11.1
20.7
10.0
21.3

68.5

79.2
73.2
77.8

33.1
31.2
18.4
28.2
15.0
28.4

Growth rates

4.4
2.0
2.6

2.6

2.8
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2

4.4
7.7
8.3

8.3

9.7
10.8
11.1

10.8
11.2
10.9
11.1
11.0
10.9

-33.6

-41.1
-28.0
-27.7

-10.8
-13.0
-7.4
-7.3
-2.0
-5.5

3.7
-10.3
-7.5

-7.5

-11.2
-13.9
-15.5

-13.9
-15.0
-15.3
-15.5
-14.8
-14.5

-3.1

-0.1
6.6
-1.9

2.4
-1.9
0.2
-0.2
-3.4
-1.9

5.4
1.6
-0.1

-0.1

0.0
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1

-1.9

0.8
-1.0
0.2

-1.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.3

-53.8
-56.7
-36.9

-36.9

-31.2
-37.8
-37.7

-37.8
-35.4
-36.9
-37.7
-26.0
-20.8

812.7
804.8
896.1

896.1

948.1
955.7
967.3

955.7
968.9
968.1
967.3
965.3
992.0

18.7
-15.1
53.7

62.1

35.2
11.8
11.1

-1.6
11.0
2.3
-2.2
-4.4
22.1

2.3
-1.9
6.3

6.3

14.7
13.7
14.3

13.7
14.4
14.5
14.3
11.0
9.9

210.3
194.9
222.7

222.7

225.7
228.1
218.0

228.1
232.1
224.7
218.0
222.4
222.4

15.2
-13.3
7.5

-5.3

1.5
2.8
-10.2

-0.8
3.6
-7.2
-6.6
4.5
-2.4

7.9
-6.4
4.0

4.0

-0.5
-1.1
-4.9

-1.1
-1.9
-5.6
-4.9
-3.7
-4.7

307.0
300.1
333.1

333.1

340.2
340.9
356.2

340.9
348.0
354.2
356.2
366.1
370.3

25.7
-7.8
21.7

-2.2

7.5
0.9
13.4

-4.8
5.2
6.2
1.9
9.5
4.1

9.3
-2.5
7.3

7.3

5.2
5.3
5.8

5.3
5.6
6.1
5.8
9.8
10.5

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) In accordance with the ESA 2010, in December 2014 holding companies of non-financial groups were reclassified from the non-financial corporations sector to the financial

corporations sector. These entities are included in MFI balance sheet statistics with financial corporations other than MFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs).

3) Including non-profit institutions serving households.
4) Refers to the general government sector excluding central government.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 19
S 19

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
5 Money and credit

5.3 Credit to euro area residents 1)
(EUR billions and annual growth rates; seasonally adjusted; outstanding amounts and growth rates at end of period; transactions during period)

   Credit to general government

   Credit to other euro area residents

Total

Loans

Debt
securities

Total

   Loans

   Total

Adjusted for
loan sales
and securi-
tisation 2)

To non- To house- To financial To insurance
holds 4) corporations corporations
financial
other than and pension
corpor-
ations 3)
MFIs and
funds
ICPFs 3)

Debt
securities

Equity and
non-money
market fund
investment
fund shares

1

2

3

4

5
Outstanding amounts

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

3,408.9
3,404.9
3,605.5

3,605.5

3,671.9
3,680.7
3,816.1

3,680.7
3,729.4
3,767.1
3,816.1
3,835.5
3,879.9

184.2
-25.0
72.0

44.2

40.6
57.9
112.1

11.5
30.1
47.0
35.0
10.1
38.6

5.8
-0.7
2.1

2.1

2.8
5.1
7.2

5.1
5.5
6.3
7.2
6.9
7.8

1,169.7
1,096.7
1,131.8

2,239.3
2,308.2
2,473.7

13,070.2 10,858.3
12,709.1 10,544.4
12,562.3 10,510.7

11,263.1
10,929.5
10,921.3

4,543.9
4,353.6
4,278.4

1,131.8

2,473.7

12,562.3 10,510.7

10,921.3

4,278.4

1,148.5
1,137.4
1,127.1

1,137.4
1,132.3
1,132.3
1,127.1
1,119.8
1,119.7

2,523.5
2,543.3
2,689.1

2,543.3
2,597.1
2,634.8
2,689.1
2,715.8
2,760.2

12,673.9 10,611.8
12,636.2 10,592.2
12,651.4 10,563.9

12,636.2 10,592.2
12,711.9 10,606.0
12,696.6 10,599.0
12,651.4 10,563.9
12,694.3 10,606.1
12,735.3 10,649.3

11,009.1
10,987.0
10,962.2

10,987.0
11,005.5
11,001.2
10,962.2
11,002.3
11,045.8

4,308.0
4,291.3
4,275.0

4,291.3
4,297.5
4,290.9
4,275.0
4,290.2
4,307.8

Transactions

-4.0
-73.5
16.0

10.1

16.5
-10.7
-10.2

-5.5
-4.0
-0.1
-6.1
-7.7
-0.2

-0.3
-6.3
1.5

1.5

1.9
1.6
0.5

1.6
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.2
-0.6

188.2
48.5
56.1

34.0

24.1
68.6
122.3

17.0
34.1
47.1
41.1
17.8
38.8

9.4
2.2
2.4

2.4

3.2
6.7
10.2

6.7
7.7
8.8
10.2
9.9
11.7

-99.8
-305.9
-104.3

-69.8
-248.1
-50.5

-54.1
-268.7
-32.4

-108.0
-132.9
-59.8

4.0

33.9
0.8
54.0

-4.5
69.5
14.6
-30.1
28.2
18.4

-0.7
-2.3
-0.8

-0.8

-0.2
0.2
0.7

0.2
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.0
1.2

19.5

45.2
8.0
-8.6

0.6
14.2
3.6
-26.4
36.5
35.6

-0.6
-2.3
-0.5

-0.5

0.1
0.6
0.6

0.6
0.9
1.0
0.6
1.0
1.3

14.9

31.5
1.9
-3.9

-9.0
20.2
4.2
-28.3
36.0
31.7

Growth rates

-0.5
-2.4
-0.3

-0.3

0.2
0.3
0.4

0.3
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.8
1.0

1.8

8.0
-1.1
-5.7

-0.9
5.3
-1.1
-9.9
16.4
12.8

-2.3
-2.9
-1.4

-1.4

-0.6
-0.2
0.1

-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.9

5,244.0
5,222.8
5,200.4

5,200.4

5,234.0
5,258.5
5,276.8

5,258.5
5,261.5
5,268.8
5,276.8
5,301.1
5,308.5

25.5
-4.0
-15.2

7.1

19.2
30.7
23.9

18.1
4.1
9.1
10.6
14.9
7.9

0.5
-0.1
-0.3

-0.3

0.0
1.2
1.6

1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9

981.1
869.2
903.1

903.1

935.2
906.8
890.9

906.8
915.4
910.8
890.9
890.5
908.7

14.5
-120.9
12.8

5.2

12.7
-22.6
-12.4

-11.0
8.8
-1.5
-19.7
2.1
15.1

1.5
-12.3
1.3

1.3

2.3
-1.1
-2.1

-1.1
0.8
0.5
-2.1
-1.5
-0.2

89.3
98.7
128.9

128.9

134.7
135.5
121.2

135.5
131.6
128.6
121.2
124.3
124.3

-1.9
9.7
11.7

5.4

5.3
1.0
-14.4

-5.6
-4.0
-3.0
-7.4
3.1
-0.1

-2.1
10.9
11.9

11.9

14.1
17.8
-1.4

17.8
10.1
12.4
-1.4
1.9
-1.5

1,437.9
1,364.7
1,276.9

1,276.9

1,273.9
1,254.7
1,310.2

1,254.7
1,302.8
1,305.9
1,310.2
1,296.4
1,287.7

-68.7
-72.8
-90.0

-33.8

-3.8
-14.0
64.2

-7.6
46.9
11.8
5.6
-16.3
-20.8

-4.5
-5.1
-6.6

-6.6

-4.9
-5.2
1.0

-5.2
-1.9
-0.3
1.0
0.2
-0.5

774.1
800.0
774.7

774.7

788.2
789.4
777.3

789.4
803.0
791.7
777.3
791.8
798.3

38.7
15.0
36.3

18.3

-7.5
6.7
-1.6

2.5
8.4
-0.7
-9.3
8.1
3.6

5.3
1.9
4.5

4.5

3.2
3.0
1.9

3.0
3.3
3.3
1.9
2.5
3.4

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) Adjusted for the derecognition of loans on the MFI balance sheet on account of their sale or securitisation.
3) In accordance with the ESA 2010, in December 2014 holding companies of non-financial groups were reclassified from the non-financial corporations sector to the financial

corporations sector. These entities are included in MFI balance sheet statistics with financial corporations other than MFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs).

4) Including non-profit institutions serving households.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 20
S 20

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
5 Money and credit

5.4 MFI loans to euro area non-financial corporations and households 1)
(EUR billions and annual growth rates; seasonally adjusted; outstanding amounts and growth rates at end of period; transactions during period)

   Non-financial corporations 2) 

   Total

Up to 1 year

Over 1 Over 5 years

   Total

Adjusted for
loan sales
and securi-
tisation 4)

and up to
5 years

Adjusted for
loan sales
and securi-
tisation 4)

   Households 3)

Loans for
consumption

Loans for Other loans

house
purchase

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Outstanding amounts

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

4,543.9
4,353.6
4,278.4

4,278.4

4,308.0
4,291.3
4,275.0

4,291.3
4,297.5
4,290.9
4,275.0
4,290.2
4,307.8

-108.0
-132.9
-59.8

1.8

8.0
-1.1
-5.7

-0.9
5.3
-1.1
-9.9
16.4
12.8

-2.3
-2.9
-1.4

-1.4

-0.6
-0.2
0.1

-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.9

4,604.6
4,407.7
4,336.4

4,336.4

4,363.8
4,347.6
4,333.9

4,347.6
4,355.6
4,349.9
4,333.9
4,350.6
4,365.7

-74.0
-145.1
-62.9

-1.6

5.3
0.0
-0.4

-2.3
8.9
0.0
-9.3
19.5
9.3

-1.6
-3.2
-1.4

-1.4

-0.6
-0.4
0.1

-0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.9

1,128.1
1,065.7
1,081.4

1,081.4

1,089.9
1,080.9
1,058.3

1,080.9
1,082.2
1,083.7
1,058.3
1,062.5
1,077.5

6.1
-44.3
-13.5

-4.9

-1.0
-3.7
-19.2

-2.2
0.7
3.9
-23.8
3.3
16.1

0.5
-4.0
-1.3

-1.3

-0.7
-1.1
-2.7

-1.1
-0.5
0.0
-2.7
-2.3
0.0

795.6
740.9
724.7

724.7

738.6
743.1
746.2

743.1
744.2
743.0
746.2
755.8
755.3

-51.4
-44.6
2.6

7.3

7.3
7.0
4.3

1.7
0.5
-0.1
3.9
10.2
-2.7

-6.0
-5.6
0.4

0.4

2.1
2.2
3.6

2.2
2.5
2.5
3.6
5.1
3.5

2,620.2
2,547.0
2,472.3

2,472.3

2,479.5
2,467.3
2,470.6

2,467.3
2,471.2
2,464.2
2,470.6
2,471.9
2,475.0

5,244.0
5,222.8
5,200.4

5,200.4

5,234.0
5,258.5
5,276.8

5,258.5
5,261.5
5,268.8
5,276.8
5,301.1
5,308.5

Transactions

-62.7
-44.0
-48.9

-0.7

1.7
-4.4
9.2

-0.5
4.0
-4.9
10.0
2.8
-0.6

Growth rates

-2.3
-1.7
-1.9

-1.9

-1.3
-0.5
0.2

-0.5
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.5

25.5
-4.0
-15.2

7.1

19.2
30.7
23.9

18.1
4.1
9.1
10.6
14.9
7.9

0.5
-0.1
-0.3

-0.3

0.0
1.2
1.6

1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9

5,579.9
5,546.6
5,545.9

5,545.9

5,570.9
5,589.7
5,610.6

5,589.7
5,597.3
5,605.9
5,610.6
5,629.3
5,637.7

7.7
-15.0
6.1

3.9

11.1
20.8
25.1

8.1
8.8
8.0
8.2
8.9
8.7

0.1
-0.3
0.1

0.1

0.3
0.6
1.1

0.6
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4

602.1
573.6
563.4

563.4

567.8
578.7
582.4

578.7
579.6
581.6
582.4
594.7
596.6

-17.7
-18.2
-2.9

-1.7

2.0
9.4
5.2

8.3
1.4
2.4
1.3
2.9
2.5

-2.8
-3.0
-0.5

-0.5

-0.1
1.8
2.6

1.8
2.0
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.5

3,825.1
3,853.7
3,861.0

3,861.0

3,890.9
3,908.9
3,925.8

3,908.9
3,911.9
3,917.2
3,925.8
3,940.0
3,943.7

48.3
27.4
-3.4

10.8

17.4
22.5
19.2

10.3
3.3
6.4
9.5
12.6
3.1

1.3
0.7
-0.1

-0.1

0.1
1.6
1.8

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.1

816.8
795.5
775.9

775.9

775.3
771.0
768.5

771.0
770.1
770.0
768.5
766.4
768.2

-5.1
-13.2
-8.9

-2.0

-0.2
-1.2
-0.5

-0.5
-0.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.6
2.2

-0.6
-1.6
-1.1

-1.1

-0.7
-0.8
-0.5

-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) In accordance with the ESA 2010, in December 2014 holding companies of non-financial groups were reclassified from the non-financial corporations sector to the financial

corporations sector. These entities are included in MFI balance sheet statistics with financial corporations other than MFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs).

3) Including non-profit institutions serving households.
4) Adjusted for the derecognition of loans on the MFI balance sheet on account of their sale or securitisation.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 21
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
5 Money and credit

5.5 Counterparts to M3 other than credit to euro area residents 1)
(EUR billions and annual growth rates; seasonally adjusted; outstanding amounts and growth rates at end of period; transactions during period)

   MFI liabilities

   MFI assets

Central
government
holdings 2)

   Longer-term financial liabilities vis-à-vis other euro area residents

Net external
assets

Total

Deposits

Deposits
with an redeemable
at notice
agreed
maturity
of over
of over
3 months
2 years

Debt

Capital
securities and reserves

with a
maturity
of over
2 years

   Other

   Total

Repos
with central
counter-
parties 3)

Reverse
repos to
central
counter-
parties 3)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Outstanding amounts

305.7
261.7
264.6

264.6

283.2
265.2
287.6

265.2
253.6
274.5
287.6
347.8
295.0

-3.9
-44.9
-5.7

10.3

15.5
-18.0
22.0

-7.2
-11.7
20.8
12.8
58.0
-52.8

-1.2
-14.7
-2.2

-2.2

5.5
-6.0
11.8

-6.0
-12.4
-1.4
11.8
29.6
9.9

7,577.2
7,311.0
7,179.1

7,179.1

7,312.3
7,161.7
7,094.2

7,161.7
7,152.1
7,118.3
7,094.2
7,107.2
7,124.2

-112.9
-90.0
-155.7

-81.5

-36.1
-86.5
-37.4

-35.1
-4.8
-14.3
-18.3
-35.0
-10.8

-1.5
-1.2
-2.1

-2.1

-2.6
-2.9
-3.3

-2.9
-2.9
-3.1
-3.3
-3.4
-3.3

2,394.1
2,371.2
2,248.8

2,248.8

2,258.8
2,223.4
2,224.1

2,223.4
2,229.5
2,225.1
2,224.1
2,207.6
2,189.4

-156.5
-19.0
-122.7

-28.9

-27.5
-34.7
6.1

-15.2
9.8
-2.7
-1.0
-23.6
-21.3

-6.1
-0.8
-5.2

-5.2

-5.9
-5.3
-3.7

-5.3
-4.4
-4.3
-3.7
-4.2
-4.9

105.9
91.5
92.0

92.0

90.4
86.5
83.5

86.5
85.6
84.2
83.5
82.2
80.2

-10.2
-14.3
1.8

1.0

-2.6
-3.9
-3.1

-1.0
-0.9
-1.4
-0.7
-1.3
-2.0

-8.8
-13.5
2.0

2.0

-0.3
-3.6
-9.3

-3.6
-5.1
-8.0
-9.3
-10.1
-11.5

2,681.7
2,507.2
2,381.7

2,381.7

2,396.2
2,330.6
2,264.5

2,330.6
2,316.5
2,289.8
2,264.5
2,256.8
2,284.4

Transactions

-106.8
-137.5
-144.0

-62.2

-51.8
-51.1
-58.4

-10.5
-20.1
-13.3
-25.0
-18.0
-5.8

Growth rates

-3.8
-5.1
-5.7

-5.7

-6.5
-7.8
-9.0

-7.8
-8.3
-8.4
-9.0
-8.8
-8.5

2,395.5
2,341.1
2,456.5

2,456.5

2,566.9
2,521.2
2,522.1

2,521.2
2,520.4
2,519.2
2,522.1
2,560.7
2,570.2

160.6
80.8
109.1

8.6

45.8
3.3
18.0

-8.3
6.5
3.1
8.3
7.8
18.2

7.1
3.4
4.6

4.6

4.7
4.3
3.1

4.3
3.9
3.6
3.1
3.0
3.6

1,019.5
1,146.5
1,383.4

1,383.4

1,505.6
1,458.8
1,361.8

1,458.8
1,395.1
1,355.3
1,361.8
1,394.5
1,383.5

92.3
362.0
238.6

25.0

3.2
-0.4
-63.8

22.2
-51.8
-19.4
7.4
9.3
-15.9

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

170.3
150.2
217.5

217.5

232.0
234.6
248.8

234.6
235.1
235.8
248.8
308.0
270.4

42.5
-62.5
7.2

-3.8

34.1
-55.0
1.6

-40.9
9.1
-16.2
8.8
51.3
-43.3

- 
- 
- 

- 

- 
- 
- 

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

260.8
183.8
184.5

184.5

234.8
224.6
213.6

224.6
202.4
207.0
213.6
196.4
217.7

9.4
32.2
0.7

20.9

50.2
-10.2
-11.0

1.6
-22.2
4.6
6.6
-17.2
21.3

2.5
10.3
0.4

0.4

32.5
31.0
30.5

31.0
19.2
20.3
30.5
7.2
18.0

201.2
121.9
139.7

139.7

159.1
143.7
140.8

143.7
137.4
128.4
140.8
144.9
146.0

41.5
43.7
17.8

18.0

19.4
-15.4
-2.9

3.1
-6.4
-9.0
12.4
4.1
1.1

26.1
23.3
14.6

14.6

36.3
20.7
15.7

20.7
13.6
9.8
15.7
19.6
11.7

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 
         Q3 

2015 June 
         July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. (p)

Source: ECB.
1) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area.
2) Comprises central government holdings of deposits with the MFI sector and of securities issued by the MFI sector.
3) Not adjusted for seasonal effects.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 22
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
6 Fiscal developments

6.1 Deficit/surplus
(as a percentage of GDP; flows during one-year period)

   Deficit (-)/surplus (+)

Total

Central
government

State
government

Local
government

1

-4.2
-3.7
-3.0
-2.6

-2.6
-2.6

-2.5
-2.4

2

-3.3
-3.4
-2.6
-2.2

. 
. 

. 
. 

3

-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2

. 
. 

. 
. 

4

-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

Socual
security
funds

5

0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1

. 
. 

. 
. 

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

Sources: ECB for annual data; Eurostat for quarterly data.

6.2 Revenue and expenditure
(as a percentage of GDP; flows during one-year period)

   Revenue

Total

   Current revenue

Capital
revenue

Total

   Expenditure

   Current expenditure

Direct
taxes

Indirect
taxes

Net social
contributions

Compen-
Intermediate
sation of consumption

Interest

Social
benefits

employees

Memo item:
Primary
deficit (-)/
surplus (+)

6

-1.2
-0.6
-0.2
0.1

0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1

Capital
expenditure

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

1

2

3

44.9
46.1
46.6
46.8

46.6
46.7

46.6
46.5

44.5
45.6
46.1
46.3

46.2
46.2

46.1
46.1

11.6
12.2
12.5
12.5

12.5
12.4

12.5
12.5

4

12.6
12.9
12.9
13.1

13.1
13.1

13.1
13.1

Sources: ECB for annual data; Eurostat for quarterly data.

5

15.1
15.3
15.5
15.5

15.5
15.5

15.5
15.4

6

0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

7

8

49.1
49.7
49.6
49.4

49.2
49.3

49.1
48.9

44.8
45.2
45.5
45.4

45.3
45.3

45.2
45.1

9

10.4
10.4
10.4
10.3

10.3
10.3

10.3
10.2

10

5.3
5.4
5.4
5.3

5.3
5.3

5.3
5.3

11

3.0
3.0
2.8
2.7

2.7
2.6

2.5
2.5

12

22.2
22.6
23.0
23.1

23.0
23.1

23.1
23.1

13

4.3
4.5
4.1
3.9

3.9
3.9

3.9
3.8

6.3 Government debt-to-GDP ratio
(as a percentage of GDP; outstanding amounts at end of period)

Total

   Financial instrument

   Holder

   Original maturity

   Residual maturity

   Currency

Debt   Resident creditors Non-resident
creditors

securities

Up to
1 year

Over
1 year

Up to
Over 1 Over
1 year and up to 5 years
5 years

Euro or
participating
currencies

Other
curren-
cies

Currency Loans

and
deposits

2

3

2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7

2.6
2.7

2.7
2.7

15.5
17.4
17.2
17.0

16.8
17.0

16.8
16.2

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

1

86.0
89.3
91.1
92.1

92.1
91.9

92.7
92.2

4

67.5
68.9
71.2
72.4

72.7
72.2

73.2
73.2

5

42.9
45.5
46.0
45.3

. 
. 

. 
. 

MFIs

6

24.4
26.2
26.2
26.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

7

43.1
43.8
45.1
46.8

. 
. 

. 
. 

8

12.2
11.4
10.4
10.1

. 
. 

. 
. 

9

73.8
78.0
80.7
82.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

10

20.4
19.7
19.4
19.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

11

12

30.0
31.7
32.2
32.1

35.6
37.9
39.4
41.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

. 
. 

. 
. 

13

84.2
87.2
89.1
90.1

. 
. 

. 
. 

14

1.8
2.2
2.0
2.0

. 
. 

. 
. 

Sources: ECB for annual data; Eurostat for quarterly data.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 23
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ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
6 Fiscal developments

6.4 Annual change in the government debt-to-GDP ratio and underlying factors 1)
(as a percentage of GDP; flows during one-year period)

ni egnahC
-ot-tbed
GDP ratio 2)

yramirP
/)+( ticifed
surplus (-)

tnemtsujda tbed-ticifeD   

Total

   Transactions in main financial assets

Revaluation Other

Total Currency Loans

and
stisoped

securities

Debt Equity and
investment
serahs dnuf

effects
and other
changes in
emulov

:meti omeM-tseretnI
gniworroB
requirement

htworg
differential

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

1

2.1
3.4
1.7
1.0

1.0
1.0

0.9
-0.5

2

1.2
0.6
0.2
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1

3

4

5

6

0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.0

-0.1
0.0

0.0
-0.9

-0.4
1.0
-0.6
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1

0.0
-0.9

0.2
0.3
-0.5
0.3

0.0
0.3

0.3
-0.3

-0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.2

0.1
-0.1

-0.1
-0.3

7

-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3

-0.2
-0.3

-0.2
-0.2

8

-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.0

0.1
0.0

0.0
-0.2

9

0.4
-1.3
-0.1
0.0

-0.3
-0.1

-0.1
0.0

10

0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1

0.3
0.2

0.1
0.1

11

0.8
2.7
1.9
1.1

1.2
1.1

0.9
0.5

12

3.9
5.0
2.7
2.6

2.8
2.7

2.6
1.5

Sources: ECB for annual data; Eurostat for quarterly data.
1) Intergovernmental lending in the context of the financial crisis is consolidated except in quarterly data on the deficit-debt adjustment.
2) Calculated as the difference between the government debt-to-GDP ratios at the end of the reference period and a year earlier.

6.5 Government debt securities 1)
(debt service as a percentage of GDP; flows during debt service period; average nominal yields in percentages per annum)

   Debt service due within 1 year 2)

Total

   Principal

   Interest

egarevA
laudiser
maturity
in years 3)

Maturities
3 ot pu fo
shtnom

Maturities
3 ot pu fo
shtnom

sdleiy lanimon egarevA   

 4)

   Outstanding amounts

   Transactions

Total

Floating

Zero
nopuocetar

   Fixed rate

Issuance Redemption

1

2

3

4

2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

2015 July 
         Aug. 
         Sep. 
         Oct. 
         Nov. 
         Dec. 

16.3
16.5
15.9

17.3
15.9

15.5
15.4

15.3
15.3
15.5
15.9
16.0
15.2

14.2
14.4
13.9

15.2
13.9

13.4
13.4

13.3
13.4
13.5
13.9
14.0
13.3

4.9
5.0
5.1

5.7
5.1

4.6
4.9

4.3
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.7
4.4

2.1
2.1
2.0

2.1
2.0

2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

5

0.5
0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

6

7

8

9

10

6.3
6.3
6.4

6.4
6.4

6.5
6.6

6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.6

3.8
3.5
3.1

3.2
3.1

3.1
3.0

2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8

1.7
1.7
1.5

1.5
1.5

1.3
1.3

1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2

1.1
1.3
0.5

0.5
0.5

0.3
0.2

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

4.0
3.7
3.5

3.5
3.5

3.5
3.4

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3

Source: ECB.
1) At face value and not consolidated within the general government sector.
2) Excludes future payments on debt securities not yet outstanding and early redemptions.
3) Residual maturity at the end of the period.
4) Outstanding amounts at the end of the period; transactions as 12-month average.

seitirutaM
of up to 1
year

11

3.1
2.8
2.7

2.8
2.7

2.9
2.9

2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

12

1.6
1.2
0.8

0.9
0.8

0.6
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4

13

2.2
1.8
1.6

1.6
1.6

1.7
1.5

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.2

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 24
S 24

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics   
 
   
   
   
   
6 Fiscal developments

6.6 Fiscal developments in euro area countries
(as a percentage of GDP; flows during one-year period and outstanding amounts at end of period)

Belgium

Germany

Estonia

Ireland

Greece

Spain

France

Italy

Cyprus

1

-4.1
-4.1
-2.9
-3.1

-3.0
-3.1

-3.3
-3.1

102.2
104.1
105.1
106.7

108.8
106.7

110.9
109.3

2

-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.3

0.1
0.3

0.4
0.6

78.4
79.7
77.4
74.9

75.4
74.9

74.3
72.5

3

4

5

Government deficit (-)/surplus (+)

1.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.7

-0.1
0.7

0.5
0.6

5.9
9.5
9.9
10.4

10.3
10.4

10.0
9.9

-12.5
-8.0
-5.7
-3.9

-4.6
-3.9

-3.6
-3.0

Government debt

109.3
120.2
120.0
107.5

112.6
107.5

104.7
102.0

-10.2
-8.8
-12.4
-3.6

-2.3
-3.5

-4.3
-4.5

172.0
159.4
177.0
178.6

175.8
177.1

168.6
167.8

6

-9.5
-10.4
-6.9
-5.9

-5.8
-5.9

-5.9
-5.4

69.5
85.4
93.7
99.3

98.4
99.3

99.8
99.5

7

-5.1
-4.8
-4.1
-3.9

-4.0
-3.9

-3.9
-4.1

85.2
89.6
92.3
95.6

95.7
95.6

97.5
97.7

8

9

-3.5
-3.0
-2.9
-3.0

-2.7
-3.0

-3.0
-2.9

116.4
123.2
128.8
132.3

132.3
132.3

135.3
136.0

-5.7
-5.8
-4.9
-8.9

-10.2
-8.8

-0.2
-0.4

65.8
79.3
102.5
108.2

104.7
107.5

106.8
109.7

Latvia

Lithuania Luxembourg

Malta Netherlands

Austria

Portugal

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

10

11

-3.4
-0.8
-0.9
-1.5

-1.0
-1.6

-1.8
-1.9

42.8
41.4
39.1
40.6

41.2
40.8

35.7
36.0

-8.9
-3.1
-2.6
-0.7

-0.7
-0.7

-0.8
0.3

37.2
39.8
38.8
40.7

38.0
40.7

38.0
37.6

12

0.5
0.2
0.7
1.4

1.3
1.4

1.0
0.8

19.2
22.1
23.4
23.0

23.0
23.0

22.3
21.9

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Government deficit (-)/surplus (+)

-2.6
-3.6
-2.6
-2.1

-2.8
-2.1

-2.5
-2.2

69.8
67.6
69.6
68.3

72.1
68.3

70.0
68.9

-4.3
-3.9
-2.4
-2.4

-2.8
-2.4

-2.0
-1.9

Government debt

61.7
66.4
67.9
68.2

68.3
68.2

69.2
67.1

-2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-2.7

-1.1
-2.7

-2.2
-2.2

82.2
81.6
80.8
84.2

80.7
84.2

85.0
86.4

-7.4
-5.7
-4.8
-7.2

-7.4
-7.2

-7.1
-6.4

111.4
126.2
129.0
130.2

132.3
130.2

130.4
128.7

-6.6
-4.1
-15.0
-5.0

-12.8
-5.0

-4.8
-4.7

46.4
53.7
70.8
80.8

77.9
80.8

81.8
80.8

-4.1
-4.2
-2.6
-2.8

-2.9
-2.8

-2.8
-2.9

43.3
51.9
54.6
53.5

55.6
53.7

54.2
54.5

-1.0
-2.1
-2.5
-3.3

-3.0
-3.3

-3.3
-2.8

48.5
52.9
55.6
59.3

57.9
59.3

60.3
62.4

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

2011
2012
2013
2014

2014 Q3 
         Q4 

2015 Q1 
         Q2 

Source: Eurostat.

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 - Statistics

S 25
S 25

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 1 / 2016 – Statistics© European Central Bank, 2016

Postal address 
Telephone 
Website 

60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
+49 69 1344 0
www.ecb.europa.eu

This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by 
the national central banks.

All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is 
acknowledged. 

The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 20 January 2016.

ISSN 
ISSN 
EU catalogue No 
EU catalogue No 

2363-3417 (epub)
2363-3417 (online)
QB-BP-16-001-EN-E (epub)
QB-BP-16-001-EN-N (online)