FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 1 January-March 2016.
Date: 2016-08-31
Institutions: Frontex
Subjects: EU migration policy, European security, Frontex, border control, external border of the EU, human rights, illegal migration, illicit trade, serial publication, trafficking in human beings

FRAN Quarterly

Q2Q1Q3Q4FRAN QuarterlyQuarter 1 • January–March 2016Frontex  official  publications  fall  into  four  main  categories:  risk  analysis,  training, 
operations and research, each marked with a distinct graphic identifier. Risk analysis 
publications bear a triangular symbol formed by an arrow drawing a triangle, with a 
dot  at  the  centre.  Metaphorically,  the  arrow  represents  the  cyclical  nature  of  risk 
analysis processes and its orientation towards an appropriate operational response. 
The triangle is a symbol of ideal proportions and knowledge, reflecting the pursuit 
of factual exactness, truth and exhaustive analysis. The dot at the centre represents 
the intelligence factor and the focal point where information from diverse sources 
converges  to  be  processed,  systematised  and  shared  as  analytical  products.  Thus, 
Frontex risk analysis is meant to be at the centre and to form a reliable basis for its 
operational activities.

European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation  
at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union

Plac Europejski 6 
00-844 Warsaw, Poland
T +48 22 205 95 00 
F +48 22 205 95 01 
frontex@frontex.europa.eu 
www.frontex.europa.eu

Warsaw, August 2016 
Risk Analysis Unit 
Frontex reference number: 13471 / 2016

OPOCE Catalogue number TT-AF-16-001-EN-N 
ISSN 2363-0566

© Frontex, 2016 
All rights reserved. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

DISCLAIMERS
This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply 
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal 
status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation 
of its frontiers or boundaries. All charts included in this report are the sole property of 
Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited.

Throughout the report, references to Kosovo* are marked with an asterisk to indicate 
that  this  designation  is  without  prejudice  to  positions  on  status,  and  is  in  line  with 
UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The FRAN Quarterly has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the 
course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and outside contributed 
to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude.

FRAN · q1 2015Table of contents

Introduction  #3

  Methodology  #4

I.  Situational overview  #6

  FRAN indicators  #7

Surveillance  #8

  Border checks  #10

  Fraudulent documents  #12

Situation in the EU  #14

II.  Featured risk analysis  #16

Lower migration pressure and diversifying routes  #16

III. Statistical annex  #18

1 of 33
1 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016 
 
 
 
List of abbreviations used

BCP 
CIRCA 
CTA 

EDF 
EDF-RAN 
EES 
EU  
EUR 
FRAN  
Frontex 

FYR Macedonia 
ICJ 
ICONet 
ID 
IOM 
JO 
n.a. 
Q/Qtr 
RAU 
SE 
SIS 
UK 
UNHCR 
UNSCR 
WB 
WB-RAN 

 border-crossing point
 Communication and Information Resource Centre Administrator
 Common Travel Area (a travel zone without regular border controls between Ireland, the UK, the Isle of Man, 
and the Channel Islands)
European Union Document-Fraud
 European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network
Entry/Exit System
 European Union
euro
 Frontex Risk Analysis Network
 European  Agency  for  the  Management  of  Operational  Cooperation  at  the  External  Borders  of  the  Member 
States of the European Union
 former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
 International Court of Justice
Information and Coordination Network for Member States’ Migration Management Services
 identification document
International Organization for Migration
Joint Operation
 not available
 quarter of the year
Frontex Risk Analysis Unit
South Eastern 
Schengen Information System
 United Kingdom
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
 United Nations Security Council Resolution
Western Balkans
 Western Balkans Risk Analysis Network

2 of 33

 Introduction

FRAN Quarterly reports are prepared by 
the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit and provide 
a regular overview of irregular migration 
at the EU external borders, based on the 
irregular migration data exchanged among 
Member State border-control authorities 
within the cooperative framework of the 
Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Network  (FRAN) 
and  its  subsidiary,  the  European  Union 
Document-Fraud  Risk  Analysis  Network 
(EDF-RAN).

The main purpose of the FRAN Quarter-
lies is to provide:
1. 

 feedback  to  the  FRAN  community  in 
the context of information exchange;
2.   a periodic update to the situational pic-
ture of irregular migration at EU level; 
and

3.   material for constructive discussion on 
reporting protocols and related trends 
and patterns.

This report is intended to simultaneously 
serve two objectives: first – to provide a 
clear summary of the situation at the ex-
ternal border of the EU, and second – to 
serve  as  an  archive  for  future  reference 
and comparative analyses.

some of the more detailed data and trends 
in this report should be interpreted with 
caution  and,  where  possible,  cross-ref-
erenced  with  information  from  other 
sources.  The  statistics  should  be  under-
stood in the context of the different lev-
els  of  passenger  flows  passing  through 
different  border  sections,  the  activities 
of Member State border-control author-
ities undertaken to secure different bor-
der sections and widespread variation in 
reporting and data-collection practices.

FRAN  members  and  Member  State  risk 
analysis  experts  and  border-control  au-
thorities are considered the primary cus-
tomers  of  these  reports.  In  addition  to 
the discussions taking place during FRAN 
meetings, Member State experts are in-
vited and actively encouraged to examine 
and comment upon the data and analyses 
presented here. Despite all efforts of the 
Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Unit  and  Member 
State  experts  involved  in  data  exchange 
and analyses, it is conceivable that minor 
errors will occur in these reports due to 
very challenging timelines and the grow-
ing volume and complexity of the data and 
other information exchanged within the 
FRAN community.

Harmonising  complex,  multi-source  mi-
gration data among Frontex and Member 
States  is  an  ongoing  process.  Therefore, 

Starting with the 2015 Q1 issue, the Fron-
tex Risk Analysis Unit has implemented a 

number of changes to present the anal-
ysis of migration related indicators in the 
FRAN Quarterly in a more concise and fo-
cused way. 

The first part provides a situational over-
view, broken down by main areas of work 
of  border-control  authorities  and  police 
activities related to irregular migration.
n   Surveillance, describing and analysing 
trends in detections of illegal border-
crossing between BCPs;

n   Border checks,  describing  detections 
reported during checks at BCPs (peo-
ple hiding in vehicles or refused entry);
n   Fraudulent documents, describing trends 
and pattern related to document fraud 
both at the border and within the EU;
n   Situation in the EU, examining devel-
opments  related  to  persons  applying 
for  asylum  and  those  detected  stay-
ing  illegally,  facilitators,  return  deci-
sions and effective returns.

The  second  thematic  part  of  the  report 
consists of several featured risk analyses, 
examining trends and patterns of irregular 
migration in a more comprehensive man-
ner. Eventually it is expected that some of 
the featured analysis topics would be de-
veloped  by  external  contributors  (FRAN 
members, EU agencies and international 
institutions).

3 of 33

fran · q1 2016 Methodology

The current 31st issue of the FRAN Quar-
terly  is  a  comparative  analysis  of  FRAN 
data collected between January and March 
2016 and exchanged between 31 Member 
State  border-control  authorities  within 
the framework of the Frontex Risk Anal-
ysis Network (FRAN). The report presents 
the results of statistical analysis of quar-
terly  changes  of  eight  irregular-migra-
tion indicators and one asylum indicator, 
aggregated at the level of the event. Bi-
monthly analytical reports exchanged by 
Member States were also used for inter-
pretative purposes and to provide quali-
tative information, as were other available 
sources  of  information,  such  as  Frontex 
Joint Operations.

Precise  definitions  of  Indicators  1  to  6, 
aimed at harmonising the data exchanged 
at EU level, were presented in the annexes 
of the Q1 and Q2 reports in 2009 and so 
are not repeated here.

The  FRAN  data  exchange  has  been  in 
place  since  September  2008.  Data  are 

exchanged through the ICONet Internet 
platform, an interest group of the Euro-
pean Commission’s CIRCA server. Member 
State monthly data are based on a coun-
try template prepared by the Frontex Risk 
Analysis Unit. The deadline for submitting 
data for each month was the 20th day of 
the  subsequent  month,  with  the  excep-
tion of the end-of-year data, which are re-
quested by 15 January each year. For this 
31st issue of the FRAN Quarterly, the target 
for Member States to upload the monthly 
data was thus 20 April 2016. In principle, 
data  submitted  subsequent  to  this  date 
will be reflected in the next FRAN Quar-
terly,  except  in  cases  where  clarification 
is needed in order to proceed with com-
prehensive analysis.

In January 2012, the European Union Doc-
ument-Fraud Risk Analysis Network (EDF-
RAN) was formed as a specialist forum to 
oversee the exchange and analyses of de-
tections of document fraud at the exter-
nal borders and on all international flights. 
The data were backdated and merged with 

those exchanged under a pilot Tailored Risk 
Analysis released in 2011.1

At the beginning of 2014, Member States 
started  to  regularly  collect  quantitative 
information on indicators related to sec-
ondary movements. In addition, Frontex 
organised  workshops  for  Member  State 
experts to gather their expertise and ana-
lyse available data. Their input was essen-
tial for the analysis of intra-EU/Schengen 
secondary movements of undocumented 
migrants.

External borders refer to the borders be-
tween Member States and third countries. 
The borders between Schengen Associated 
Countries (Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland 
and Switzerland) and third countries are 
also considered as external borders. The 
borders  between  Schengen  Associated 
Countries and Schengen Member States 

1  The Nature and Extent of Document Fraud 
to Enter the European Union 2009–2010, 
Ref. R063/2011

4 of 33

are considered as internal borders. For the 
indicators on detections of facilitators, ille-
gal stay and asylum, statistics are also re-
ported for detections at the land borders 
between  Schengen  Member  States  and 
Schengen  candidates  (Bulgaria,  Croatia, 
Cyprus  and  Romania)  or  non-Schengen 
Member  States  (the  UK  and  Ireland),  so 
that a total for Member States and Schen-
gen Associated Countries as a whole can 
be presented. It was not possible to make 
this distinction for air and sea borders be-
cause  Member  States  do  not  habitually 
differentiate  between  extra-EU  and  in-
tra-EU air and sea connections but tend 
to aggregate data for all arrivals.

‘Other (not specified)’ or ‘Unknown’. It is 
expected that the percentage reported 
under  these  categories  will  decrease 
with  time  as  Member  States  improve 
the quality and speed of their identifica-
tion, data collection and reporting prac-
tices:  nationalities  are  often  reported 
as ‘Unknown’ if an individual’s national-
ity cannot be established before reports 
are submitted.

This issue of the FRAN Quarterly also in-
cludes the main findings of Frontex-coor-
dinated Joint Operations active for at least 
a proportion of Q1 2016. 

When data are examined at the level of 
third-country nationalities, a large per-
centage usually falls under categories of 

Both primary data sources, such as inter-
views  with  irregular  migrants,  and  sec-
ondary  data  sources,  such  as  reports  of 
intelligence  analysts,  were  used  to  pro-

vide an exhaustive overview of the situ-
ation  at  the  external  borders  of  the  EU. 
Additionally,  open-source  data  were  re-
searched  as  background  information  for 
the present analysis.

Acknowledgements

The Frontex Risk Analysis Unit would like 
to  express  its  gratitude  to  all  FRAN  and 
EDF-RAN members and their associates 
in  Member  State  statistical,  migration 
and  document-fraud  units  who  collect, 
aggregate  and  exchange  monthly  data, 
also to the analysts who compile the bi-
monthly analytical reports, on which much 
of  the  detailed  analyses  presented  here 
are based.

5 of 33

fran · q1 2016I.  Situational overview

Table 1.  Detections of illegal border-crossing between BCPs

Detections reported by routes and top three nationalities at the external borders

2014

Q4

15 533
13 675
7 605
4 217
272
1 581
1 858
1 143
218
312
185

27 920
87
203
4 393
23 237

31 291
2 045
2 527
2 032
24 687

1 412
1 074
185
44
135
710
338
13
56
21
248

3 084
3 067
10
0
7

475
83
5
135
252

84
27
4
2
51

88
3
53
10
22

3
2
1
0

Q1

14 152
12 646
7 582
2 530
321
2 213
1 506
782
321
162
241

32 950
93
583
4 129
28 145

10 252
873
1 418
1 211
6 750

985
630
107
83
93
347
355
1
171
55
128

1 907
1 896
1
1
9

206
51
5
17
133

36
13
3
0
20

68
42
12
9
5

2
2
0
0

2015

2016

% change on

2016 Q1

Q2

68 178
65 996
38 089
16 501
2 708
8 698
2 182
1 384
225
357
216

34 559
205
2 729
13 940
17 685

60 176
7 513
2 302
1 691
48 670

1 729
1 431
316
197
250
668
298
14
117
12
155

2 727
2 712
5
4
6

509
133
4
158
214

114
31
9
4
70

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

319 146
314 400
224 071
56 739
17 743
15 847
4 746
3 115
1 151
258
222

229 746
91 044
13 715
35 021
89 966

61 746
9 395
2 569
1 758
48 024

483 910
480 137
219 269
136 516
69 358
54 994
3 773
2 048
894
572
259

466 783
464 916
30
147
1 690

21 772
4 133
1 956
1 161
14 522

153 967
151 490
74 397
38 651
23 850
14 592
2 477
1 212
774
167
324

108 649
102 331
1 346
1 093
3 879

18 776
3 434
2 339
1 679
11 324

1 680
1 547
332
79
135
1 001
133
3
75
3
52

2 182
2 166
6
3
7

734
192
6
168
368

228
85
37
11
95

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

2 610
2 132
695
151
197
1 089
478
150
133
9
186

2 116
2 100
4
3
9

478
85
2
148
243

496
236
87
12
161

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

1 408
1 307
564
147
140
456
101
44
29
9
19

1 350
1 344
2
1
3

213
36
30
29
118

162
65
55
17
25

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

988
1 098
881
1 428
7 330
559
64
55
141
3. 1
34

230
109 933
131
- 74
- 86

83
293
65
39
68

43
107
427
77
51
31
- 72
4 300
- 83
- 84
- 85

- 29
- 29
100
0
- 67

3.4
- 29
500
71
- 11

350
400
1 733
n.a.
25

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

- 68
- 68
- 66
- 72
- 66
- 73
- 34
- 41
- 13
- 71
25

- 77
- 78
4 387
644
130

- 14
- 17
20
45
- 22

- 46
- 39
- 19
-2.6
- 29
- 58
- 79
- 71
- 78
0
- 90

- 36
- 36
- 50
- 67
- 67

- 55
- 58
1 400
- 80
- 51

- 67
- 72
- 37
42
- 84

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

per cent 
of total

54
98
49
26
16
9.6
1.6
49
31
6.7
13

38
94
1.2
1.0
3.6

6.6
18
12
8.9
60

0.5
93
43
11
11
35
7.2
44
29
8.9
19

0.5
100
0.1
0.1
0.2

0.1
17
14
14
55

0.1
40
34
10
15

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

79 890

60 558

167 992

615 462

978 165

284 525

370

- 71

100

Routes

Eastern Mediterranean route
Sea

Syria
Afghanistan
Iraq
Other

Land

Syria
Iraq
Afghanistan
Other

Western Balkan route

Not specified
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Other

Central Mediterranean route

Nigeria
Gambia
Senegal
Other

Western Mediterranean route
Sea

Guinea
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Other

Land

Cameroon
Guinea
Burkina Faso
Other

Circular route from Albania to Greece

Albania
FYR Macedonia
Serbia
Other

Eastern borders route

Vietnam
Turkey
Afghanistan
Other

Western African route

Guinea
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Other

Black Sea route

Syria
Iraq
Iran
Other

Other routes
Russian Fed.
Nigeria
Other

Total

Source: FRAN data as of 16 November 2015

6 of 33

Featured Risk Analyses FRAN indicators

Situation Q1 2016

Q1 2015
(dotted circles)

Q1 2016
(solid circles)

1 106

2 187

2 644

586

1 842

2 972

27 223

37 562

30 253

46 996

63 212

69 392

107 197

127 511

181 569

274 474

60 558

284 525

IBC-1B

EDF

FAC-2

REF-4

Detections 
of illegal 
border-
crossing 
at BCPs

Detections 
of 
fraudulent 
document 
users

Detections 
of 
facilitators

Refusals 
of entry

RET-7B

RET-7A

ILL-3

FRAN ASY-5

IBC-1A

Returns 
(effective)

Returns 
(decisions)

Detections 
of persons 
staying illegally 

Asylum applications
reported to FRAN

Detections of illegal 
border-crossing 
between BCPs

After  the  FRAN  indicators  of  illegal  bor-
der-crossing  between  BCPs,  illegal  stay, 
and  asylum  had  reached  record  levels  in 
the  fourth  quarter  of  2015,  the  situation 
clearly relaxed at the beginning of 2016. On 
one hand, the irregular migration pressure 
continuously decreased between January 
and March 2016. On the other hand, the 
reporting period still showed the highest 
level  of  irregular  migration  of  any  previ-
ous first quarter since the FRAN data col-
lection began.

Similar to 2015, also in Q1 2016, most mi-
grants were detected on the Eastern Med-
iterranean  and  Western  Balkan  routes. 
Most migrants  who had entered the EU 
from Turkey were reported for a second 
time when they passed through the West-
ern Balkans and then crossed the EU’s ex-
ternal border from Serbia.

In Q1 2016, illegal border-crossings detected 
at the EU’s external borders with Turkey fell 
behind the record levels of the second half 
of 2015 for several reasons. Firstly, the ad-
verse weather conditions prevented many 
migrants from boarding boats in the East-
ern Aegean Sea. Secondly, the agreement 
between the EU and Turkey removing in-
centives to seek irregular routes to Greece 
and targeting the people smugglers’ busi-
ness  model  led  to  a  further  reduction  of 
arrivals on the Eastern Aegean islands in 
March. Nevertheless, the number of illegal 
border-crossings  on  this  route  remained 
higher than in any previous first quarter.

Irregular migration on the Western Balkan 
route  has  closely  followed  the  develop-
ments in the Eastern Mediterranean route 
with the difference that irregular migration 

pressure declined faster than in the Eastern 
Aegean Sea. Consolidated border control 
measures and increasing entry restrictions 
coordinated by the authorities along the 
route  nearly  stopped  migration  and  left 
many migrants stranded on their way, es-
pecially in the Greek area of Idomeni. Ex-
isting data indicate that most migrants on 
this  route  were  non-regional  nationals.

The  level  of  migratory  flows  across  the 
Central Mediterranean Sea was also higher 
than during any other first quarter since 
the FRAN data collection began in 2007. 
Compared  with  last  quarter,  however, 
the number of illegal border-crossings re-
ported by Italy and Malta decreased due to 
adverse weather conditions at sea. Three 
quarters  of  the  detections  made  on  the 
Central  Mediterranean  route  in  Q1  2016 
were related to migrants from West Africa. 

In the reference period, detections of illegal 
stay in the EU/Schengen Associated Coun-
tries were over one third lower than during 
the last quarter, at the peak of last year’s 
record migration to the EU. However, with 
more  than  127  000  persons  reported  in 
the EU/Schengen area, the number is 19% 
higher than during the same period of 2015. 
Compared with one year ago, the relative 
increase in Iraqi and Iranian nationals de-
tected for illegal stay was significant.

In spite of the unprecedented level of ir-
regular migration, the number of effective 
returns  decreased  3%  since  last  quarter. 
Fewer effective returns were reported es-
pecially of citizens of Western Balkan and 
Latin American countries.

Trend

Monthly trends, April 2012 to March 2016

Reported cases

1 000 000 

100 000 

10 000 

1 000 

100 

10 

FRAN
ASY-5

IBC-1A

ILL-3

RET-7A

RET-7B

REF-4

FAC-2

EDF

IBC-1B

5
1
0
2
1

Q

6
1
0
2
1

Q

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

7 of 33

fran · q1 2016 
 
 Surveillance

Routes

Detections of illegal border- 
crossing at the EU’s external 
borders, Q1 2016
284 525
(60 558)

Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

Western 
Balkan route
108 649
(32 950)

Circular route from 
Albania to Greece
       1 350
            (1 907)

Eastern borders 
route
213
(206)

Black Sea 
route
0
(68)

Eastern 
Mediterranean
route
153 967
(14 152)

Western 
Mediterranean route
1 408
(985)

Western 
African route
162
(36)

Central 
Mediterranean
route
18 776
(10 252)

FRAN data for the period between January 
and March 2016 show a 370% increase in 
overall detections of illegal border-cross-
ing compared to the same period of 2015. 
With 284 525 detections in Q1 2016, Mem-
ber  States  reported  the  highest  number 
of  illegal  border-crossings  of  any  previ-
ous first quarter since FRAN data collec-
tion began in 2007. On the other hand, the 
level of irregular migration in Q1 2016 has 
only reached less than a third of the level 
of the previous quarter, during which the 
migration crisis of 2015 has seen its peak.

tion pressure was still on a very high level 
by the end of March 2016.

Around  49%  of  the  irregular  migrants 
claimed to be of Syrian nationality, com-
pared to 59% one year ago. While the share 
of  Afghans  continued  to  amount  to  one 
quarter of the total migration flow, the pro-
portion of Iraqi nationals compared with 
one year ago has tripled to 15%. Notably, 
also the number of migrants who claimed 
to be from Pakistan and Iran have increased 
since Q1 2015, although on a low level.

Migration pressure on the Eastern 
Mediterranean route decreases

Influx of migrants leads to intensified 
secondary movements

Also in the Eastern Aegean Sea, the level of 
irregular migration has been significantly 
lower than during the last quarter, but still 
on a record level for this time of the year. 
With  more  than  150  000  illegal  border-
crossings reported, the Eastern Mediter-
ranean route has been the entry point to 
the EU with the largest migration pressure. 
Most irregular migrants were detected on 
boats entering the Eastern Aegean sea or 
already on one of the Greek islands, such 
as Lesbos, Chios and Samos. Although the 
number  of  detections  has  been  steadily 
decreasing after October 2015, the migra-

Many irregular migrants who had arrived in 
Greece or Bulgaria continued their journey 
across the Western Balkan countries to-
wards Western and Northern Europe. With 
almost 110 000 illegal border-crossings, the 
number of detections in Q1 2016 amounted 
to less than a fourth of what was reported 
in Q4 2015. Due to increasingly restrictive 
measures put in place by the authorities on 
the Western Balkan route, the number of de-
tections has also been decreasing within the 
first quarter of 2016: While in January, the 
number of illegal border-crossings has been 
on the highest level (67 000) of any previ-

ous January since the FRAN data collection 
began in 2007, in March, the number of de-
tections have decreased to around 5 000, a 
lower level than in March 2015. 

Until February, most attempted illegal en-
tries from the Western Balkan countries to 
the EU were reported from Croatia’s bor-
der with Serbia. Since March, however, with 
increasing restrictions imposed by author-
ities along the Western Balkan route, irreg-
ular migration via Croatia and Slovenia has 
effectively stopped. At the same time, the 
number of migrants breaking through the 
fence from Serbia to Hungary has reached 
a significant level again for the first time 
since the barrier was completed on 16 Oc-
tober  2015.  In  March  2016,  Hungary  re-
ported  an  average  of  around  100  illegal 
border-crossings per day.

In contrast to one year ago, the share of 
migrants from Kosovo* and other Western 
Balkan countries has shrunk to far below 1% 
of the irregular migration flow on this route. 
In the first quarter of 2016, the nationality 
of migrants on the Western Balkan route 
could not be ascertained in all cases. How-
ever, the available information and the data 
on arrivals on the Greek islands show that 
a majority of the migrants were of Syrian 

8 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewTrend

Quarterly detections of illegal
border-crossing, 2014–2015
Number

Nationalities

Main nationalities 
of illegal border-crossers
January-March 2016

Central 
Mediterranean
route

Western 
Balkan 
route

Western
Balkan

Not speciﬁed

Western
Mediterranean

Central
Mediterranean

Kosovo*
Albania

Eastern
Mediterranean

Syria

Iraq

Afghanistan

100 000

50 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

Eastern 
Mediterranean
route

Q2 Q3 Q4
2 0 1 4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2 0 1 5

Q1
2 0 1 6

Nigeria

and, to a lesser extent, of Afghan national-
ity. Interestingly, also a significant number 
of Moroccan and Algerian nationals made 
their way to the EU via the detour through 
the Western Balkan countries.

Irregular migration in the Central 
Mediterranean high in spite of the 
winter season

In  Q1  2016,  the  level  of  migratory  flows 
across the Central Mediterranean Sea has 
been higher than during any first quarter 
since the FRAN data collection began in 
2007. Compared to the previous quarter, 
the number of illegal border-crossings re-
ported by Italy and Malta have decreased 
by 14%, but on the other hand the number 
of  detections  were  83%  higher  than  one 
year ago. Of the 18 776 detections, almost 
10 000 were reported in March alone. 

Three quarters of the detections made on 
the Central Mediterranean route were re-
lated to migrants from West Africa. Nige-
rians  showed  to  be  the  fastest  growing 
nationality: While one year ago, nine per-
cent of all reported irregular migrants on 
this route were Nigerians, their share grew 
to 18 % during the reporting period.

94% of the migrants departed from Libya, 
where the continued absence of an effec-
tive national government allowed criminal 
facilitation networks to thrive. Detections 
were made almost exclusively as part of 
Search and Rescue operations following 
satellite phones calls mainly made from mi-
grant boats. While departures from Egypt 
increased but remained on a low level, the 
closure of the borders along the Western 
Balkan route did not lead to a large increase 
in detections of migrant boats trying to 
reach Italy from Greece.

Detections of irregular migration to 
Spain higher than one year ago

Although irregular migration on the West-
ern  Mediterranean  route  has  generally 
been on a low level compared with other 
routes, Spain reported increases in detec-
tions of irregular migrants this winter. In 
Q1 2016, more than 1 400 migrants tried 
to  reach  the  EU  on  the  Western  Medi-
terranean  route,  slightly  more  than  one 
half of the number of last quarter but 43% 
more than in the same period of last year. 
The migration pressure is mainly caused 
by West African migrants trying to reach 
the Spanish coast on boats. Only six per-
cent of the overall detections on this route 

during the reference period were related 
to Northern African nationals, mainly from 
Morocco. In spite of the detrimental sea 
conditions due to the winter season, at the 
land border to the Spanish towns of Ceuta 
and Melilla, only a comparably low num-
ber of around 10o illegal border-crossings 
was registered during the reference period. 

Increased detections at the EU’s east-
ern border 

In  Q1  2016,  detections  of  illegal  border-
crossing at the eastern borders amounted 
to 213 detections. With the Vietnamese na-
tionals representing the largest group of 
migrants, Turkish irregular migrants have 
become the second-ranking nationality on 
this route for the first time, while in previ-
ous quarters, only singular cases of Turkish 
nationals illegally crossing the Eastern bor-
ders were reported. Irregular migration on 
this route however appears in more ways 
than just through illegal border-crossings, 
including  through  increased  numbers  of 
refusals of entry, detections of document 
fraud or abuse of the right for asylum (see 
section Border Checks overleaf).

9 of 33

fran · q1 2016 Border checks
Refusals of entry

Clandestine  
entries

Number per border type, Q1 2016
(only values higher than 1000 are stipulated)

Total:  30 253 (27 223)

Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

Land (  )
Sea (  )

Air

United 
Kingdom

Poland

Croatia

Hungary

France

Spain

Italy

Greece

Spain

Italy

Trend of the total   

Q1 2015
Q1 2016

Land
13 772
17 344

Air
12 255
11 458

Sea

1 196
1 451

Strongest increase in refusals of 
entry related to Moroccan nationals

In Q1 2016, 30 253 refusals of entry were is-
sued at the EU external borders, which is only 
slightly above the quarterly average reported 
to the FRAN since 2007. Like in all previous 
quarters since Q3 2013, Ukrainians, with 6 555 
issued refusals, were the most reported na-
tionality again. Albanian nationals, with 3 615 
refusals, ranked second for the sixth quarter 
in a row. 79% of the reported Ukrainians were 
refused at the Polish border, while around one 
third of the reported Albanian citizens were 
refused by Italy. In most cases Ukrainians 
were not let into the EU because they could 
not present appropriate documentation justi-
fying the purpose and conditions of stay. No-
tably, the majority of Albanian nationals was 
refused because of an alert existing in the SIS 
or a national register.

Citizens of Moldova have progressively been 
subject to more refusals since last summer, 
especially issued by Italy, Poland and Roma-
nia. The number of issued refusals to citi-
zens of this country has thus been on the 
highest  level  since  2008.  During  the  re-
porting period, Tajik citizens have been is-
sued the largest numbers of refusals since 
FRAN data collection began (321), almost 
all at the Polish land border.

10 of 33

Also the number of refusals issued to Moroc-
can nationals has grown strongly, from 1 090 
in the last quarter to 1 755 during the reporting 
period. Most Moroccans were reported from 
the Spanish land and sea borders.

At air borders, the 878 refusals issued to 
citizens of Brazil have been on the highest 
level since 2012. Most were issued by Por-
tugal, Spain and Ireland and because of not 
appropriate documentation justifying the 
purpose and conditions of stay (280 of all 
Brazilians refused).

Hungary reports fastest growth in 
clandestine migrants

The  decision  of  authorities  along  the 
Western  Balkan  route  to  stop  the  tran-
sit  of  irregular  migrants  and  to  demand 
valid  travel  documents  to  pass  the  bor-
ders should in principle increase the risk 
of irregular migrants entering the EU hid-
den in lorries and other vehicles. However, 
the actual number of detections of clan-
destine  entry  decreased  by  almost  one 
half  compared  to  one  year  ago  and  16% 
compared to last quarter. 586 persons at-
tempted to cross the EU’s external borders 
hiding  in  vehicles  between  January  and 
March. Again, most clandestine entry at-
tempts were reported in South-East Eu-

rope, mainly attempting to enter the EU 
from Turkey to Bulgaria.

But  unlike  in  previous  quarters,  Hungary 
has during this reference period reported 
the second highest number of this indicator. 
As Croatia has closed its border to Serbia 
for irregular migration in line with the for-
mer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Ser-
bia, and Slovenia, some of those migrants 
who intended to reach the Schengen area 
opted to enter Hungary clandestinely, of-
ten  assisted  by  facilitation  networks.  All 
clandestine  entries  reported  by  Hungary 
were detected at the border with Serbia. 
The profile of the clandestine migrants de-
tected by Hungary is however particular: 
Half of them were Moroccan nationals, one 
third from Algeria. Between Hungarian bor-
der crossing points, these two nationalities 
represented only 9% and less than 1%, re-
spectively, of the total illegal border-cross-
ings during the first quarter of 2016.

Many detections of illegal stay on 
exit related to asylum seekers

During  the  reporting  period,  more  than 
19 000 persons were detected on exit from 
the EU or Schengen area without valid doc-
uments proving their permission to stay. The 
number of detections was 6% lower than in 

Number, Q1 2016Bulgaria-TurkeySpain-MoroccoHungary-SerbiaTotal:  586 (1 106)Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015Detections of illegal border-crossing at BCPs (people hiding in vehicles)Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviewIllegal stayers 
on exit 
Total:  19 081 (12 705)

Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

Number of detections, Q1 2016

Netherlands

Belgium

Germany

Poland

(only values higher than 300 are stipulated) 

France

Hungary

500

10-100

1-10

Type of border section:

Land 

Sea 

Air 

no data

the previous quarter, during which this in-
dicator showed its record since FRAN data 
collection began. On the other hand, dur-
ing the same period of last year, the number 
was 12 705, being around half lower than the 
current level. The FRAN data collection does 
not cover the reason for illegal stay, so the 
cases of illegal stay detected on exit include 
migrants who had either crossed the border 
to the EU/Schengen Associated Countries il-
legally, abused legal channels, or initially en-
tered the EU/Schengen Associated Countries 
legally but no longer fulfilled the conditions 
of stay or residence.

The reported numbers also reflect the extent 
to which border guard authorities in different 
Member State check documents of passen-
gers when leaving the EU/Schengen Asso-
ciated Countries. To ensure, among other 
issues, the systematic and reliable identifi-
cation of overstayers at Schengen area’s ex-
ternal borders, the European Commission, in 
April 2016, presented a revised proposal for a 
Regulation for the establishment of a com-
mon ‘Entry/Exit System’ (EES).2

The most significant development in de-
tections of illegal stay on exit was reported 
by Germany. The Member State has not 

2 

 COM(2016) 196 final

only  been  reporting  the  highest  num-
ber of this indicator since Q3 2011, it has 
also been showing a strong upward trend 
since the beginning of last year. While Ger-
many reported more than 3 000 persons 
who  attempted  to  leave  the  EU/Schen-
gen area through the air border in Q1 2015, 
this number has more than doubled one 
year later.

According to German FRAN data, the ma-
jority of the nationalities detected for il-
legal  stay  on  exit  were  also  among  the 
top-ranking  nationalities  having  applied 
for asylum during the migratory crisis year 
of  2015.  The  three  highest-ranking  na-
tionalities reported for illegal stay on exit, 
Turkish, Kosovo* citizens, and Albanians, 
have submitted 21% of the asylum appli-
cations in 2015. Many of the detections of 

illegal stay on exit seem to be related to 
asylum  seekers  individually  returning  to 
their home countries (e.g. see graphs on 
Kosovo* and Iraqi citizens below).

All  over  the  EU  and  Schengen  area,  the 
highest-ranking  nationality  detected  for 
illegal stay on exit were still Ukrainians, al-
though their number has strongly dropped 
from the peak of 4 132 in Q4 2015 to 2 681 
during the reporting period. Most of these 
Ukrainian citizens were reported from the 
external land BCPs in Poland. The strong-
est increase of a single nationality in detec-
tions of illegal stay on exit at the external 
land borders was reported from Hungary, 
where  the  number  of  detected  Russian 
nationals has grown from 0 in Q4 2015 to 
almost 200 during the reference period.

Kosovo* citizens reported by Germany Iraqi citizens reported by Germany

12 000 

10 000 

8 000 

6 000 

4 000 

2 000 

0 

Asylum applications 
Illegal stay on exit 

Asylum applications 
Illegal stay on exit 

500 

400 

300 

200 

12 000 

10 000 

8 000 

6 000 

4 000 

100 

2 000 

1 200 

1 000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

0 

0
1
M

1
1
M

2
1
M

2014

1
M

2
M

3
M

4
M

5
M

6
M

7
M

8
M

9
M

0
1
M

1
1
M

2
1
M

1
M

2
M

 0 
3
M

2015

2016

Source: Frontex data

11 of 33

0
1
M

1
1
M

2
1
M

1
M

2
M

3
M

4
M

5
M

6
M

7
M

8
M

9
M

0
1
M

1
1
M

2
1
M

1
M

2
M

3
M

2014

2015

2016

fran · q1 2016 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Fraudulent documents

Detections
(at external  
and internal borders)

Number of detected 
fraudulent documents 
per Member State, 
Q1 2016

Direction:

exit

entry

Number:
(only highest values are 
stipulated)

100

50

10

Lithuania

Poland

France

Spain

Italy

Fewer document fraud detections on 
intra-EU/Schengen movements

In Q1 2016, the overall number of document 
fraud incidents reported in the EDF-RAN 
was 17% lower than last quarter, reaching 
5 143 cases, involving 5 815 detected fraud-
ulent documents at BCPs. Member States 
have been reporting lower numbers in doc-
ument  fraud  since  last  September,  when 
the migration pressure in the Mediterra-
nean Sea began to exponentially increase. 
The opened borders and government-or-
ganised  transport  of  irregular  migrants 
along the Western Balkan route have re-
duced their demand to reach the desired 
EU destination countries with the help of 
fraudulent documents.

This development, among others, has led 
to  fewer  detections  of  document  fraud 
along  the  main  intra-Schengen  routes. 
With almost 250 detections, the number 
of persons aiming to reach other Schen-
gen countries from Greece with fraudu-
lent documents was more than 39% lower 
than one year ago. Only around 60 doc-
ument  fraudsters  were  for  example  de-
tected on flights from Greece to Germany, 

12 of 33

63% less than in Q1 2015. Also from Italy, 
the number of passengers willing to board 
intra-Schengen  flights  with  fraudulent 
documents was 37% lower.

In the cases of both mentioned embarka-
tion  countries,  Greece  and  Italy,  the  de-
crease in detections was to a large extent 
caused by fewer Syrian nationals trying to 
reach destinations such as Germany, Swit-
zerland or Denmark. Back in Q1 2015, 317 
fraudulent  documents  were  seized  from 
Syrian  citizens  on  intra-Schengen  flights 
from Greece and Italy, mostly with coun-
terfeited Greek ID cards and forged pass-
ports. During the reporting period, these 
numbers  decreased  to  only  11.  As  in  the 
first quarter of 2016 most countries on the 
Western  Balkan  route  have  allowed  Syr-
ians  to  transit  their  territories,  the  main 
reason to use fraudulent documents has 
been to avoid the exhausting overland trip. 

More Ukrainians with fraudulent 
documents at the external borders

mained stable compared to Q4 2015. The 
strongest  increase,  of  141%  between  the 
first quarter of 2015 and 2016 was related 
to  persons  travelling  from  Ukraine,  ei-
ther across the land borders or by plane. 
Of  the  407  fraudulent  travel  documents 
that were seized on entry from Ukraine, 
205 were from citizens of this country who 
obtained their EU visas in a fraudulent way. 
For the first time, also a larger number of 
Turkish citizens has tried to reach Poland 
from  Ukraine  by  presenting  fraudulent 
documents. Poland has seized almost 60 
false, mainly German visas, from Turkish 
citizens in Q1 2016.

In a longer perspective, document fraud 
detections at the EU/Schengen Associated 
Country external borders have been stead-
ily decreasing since 2014, when Member 
States reported clearly more than 2 000 
detections per quarter. A closer look re-
veals  that  this  negative  trend  was  not 
equally reported from all but only on spe-
cific incoming routes. 

With  1  842  detected  cases  of  document 
fraud on arrival in the EU/Schengen area 
from third countries, this indicator has re-

Both  in  the  longer  term  and  compared 
to the previous quarter, document fraud 
detections  e.g.  from  Turkey  have  clearly 

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overviews
a
Vis

Poland

Germany

Hungary

Spain

Belgium

France

Morocco

Greece

Sweden

Slovakia

Syria

Bulgaria

Romania

Italy

Nigeria

UK

Lithuania

Type

Type of fraudulent document detected, 
by main countries of issuance, Q1 2016

Nationality of users

s

e
c
n
ermit
e
sid
e
   p
R

s

ort
p
s
s
a
P

s

ard
ID c

s
p
m
a
St

Number

100

10

Note: 
values 
under 10 
are not 
represented

231
Not speciﬁed

347
Ukraine

168
Morocco

decreased,  from  an  quarterly  average  of 
around 420 in 2014 to 238 in the report-
ing period. Mainly on flights from Istan-
bul,  fewer  Afghans,  Iranians  and  other 
migrant  nationalities  were  reported. 
Among the reasons were better controls 
and  strengthened  international  law  en-
forcement cooperation.

On  flights  from  Nigeria,  the  number  of 
document fraud detections has been de-
creasing  from  272  one  year  ago  to  37  in 
the reporting period. This reduction in de-
tections was foremost caused by the sus-
pension of flights from Lagos to Rome in 
March 2015. Also on flights from Morocco 
and at the Spanish land borders with Mo-
rocco, the number of cases of document 
fraud decreased from 390 one year ago to 
293 during the reporting period.

Seasonal low of Albanians travelling 
from the Schengen area to the UK 
with fraudulent documents

Reported  cases  of  document  fraud  be-
tween  Schengen  countries  and  the 
non-Schengen  EU  Member  States  have 
decreased  by  23%  percent  compared  to 

the previous quarter. The comparison with 
previous years shows that document fraud 
related to the most reported nationalities 
on the routes from the Schengen area to 
the Common Travel Area (CTA) were sub-
ject  to  seasonal  changes.  Detections  of 
Albanian citizens, who are the national-
ity most reported for the use of fraudu-
lent travel documents (mostly false Italian, 
Romanian and Greek ID cards) on the way 
to the CTA, used to peak during the fourth 
quarters of each year of the EDF data col-
lection.  This  is  in  line  with  the  generic 
asylum curve of Western Balkan citizens 
in the EU, which is usually highest during 
the  cold  winter  months.  Hence  the  de-
crease  during  the  first  quarter  does  not 
necessarily  reflect  a  lasting  downward 
trend  of  Albanian  citizens  using  fraudu-
lent documents. 

Also nationalities related to the large mi-
gration  flows  along  the  Mediterranean 
routes were visible in the EDF data of per-
sons  detected  for  document  fraud  be-
tween  Schengen  and  EU  non-Schengen 
countries.  For  example  Syrian  citizens: 
Similar to the decreasing migration pres-
sure in the Eastern Aegean Sea during the 

Claimed nationality of persons 
detected with fraudulent 
documents, Q1 2016

Number

130

10

(only highest values are stipulated)

Trend between Q1 2015 and Q1 2016:

higher than 50%

between 50% and −50%

lower than  −50%

winter, the number of Syrians continuing 
their  journey  to  the  EU  non-Schengen 
countries (especially the UK) with fraudu-
lent documents has decreased by 63% from 
266 in Q4 2015 to 99 detections in Q1 2016. 

The  number  of  Iranians  reported  by  the 
Member  States  for  document  fraud  has 
in effect remained on the high level of the 
previous quarter. The increase in document 
fraud detections related to Iranians that 
has been visible since the FRAN data col-
lection began in 2009, has accelerated in 
the third quarter of 2015. Almost 41% of the 
fraudulent travel documents used by Ira-
nian citizens were seized on routes from 
the Schengen area to the UK, another 17% 
on intra-Schengen routes. Most cases on 
these routes were related to forged Greek 
and Bulgarian passports or counterfeited 
Romanian and Greek ID cards.

13 of 33

fran · q1 2016 Situation in the EU

Illegal stayers

Number of detected cases, Q1 2016
(only highest values are stipulated) 

1 000

10 000

Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

Facilitators

Number of detected persons, Q1 2016
Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

0

500

1 000

Spain

France

Italy

Greece

Finland

Belgium

Germany

France

Spain

Austria

Italy

In Q1 2016, detections of illegal stay were 35% 
lower than during the last quarter, at the 
peak of last year’s record migration to the 
EU. However, with more than 127 000 per-
sons reported in the EU/Schengen area, the 
number is 19% higher than during the same 
period of 2015. This is the highest number of 
detections of illegal stay of any first quarter 
since FRAN data collection began in 2007.

As in 2015, the majority of detections were 
related to the large flow of migrants who 
arrived in the EU first from Turkey, transited 
the Western Balkans, and continued their 
journey on secondary routes through the 
Schengen area towards their desired des-
tination. However, the share of detections 
reported by Germany has decreased from 
around 40% of the total in Q3 and Q4 2015 to 
around 30% in Q1 2016. During the reporting 
period, Germany, France, and Austria were 
the top countries for detections of illegal 
stay, reporting more than 61% of the total 
EU/Schengen Associated Countries number.

After Syrians have undoubtedly been the na-
tionality with the largest number of detec-
tions of illegal stay during the last summer, 
it is now the Afghans that are highest-rank-
ing in this regard. More than 16 000 persons 

or 13% of all nationalities detected for ille-
gal stay in Q1 2016 were Afghans (Syrians: 
14 008). With almost 13 049 detections, Iraqi 
nationals have been the third largest group 
among those who were detected as illegal 
stayers during the reporting period. 

The most remarkable hike in detections of 
illegal stay was reported in relation to Ira-
nian citizens: Member States registered a 
more than five-fold increase of this nation-
ality compared to one year ago, to 7 290 
detections during the reporting period. The 
number was on the highest level of any first 
quarter since FRAN data collection began 
and extraordinary considering the fact that 
detections  of  Iranian  illegal  stayers  have 
never been seen above the level of 5 500 
before the second half of 2015. Almost one 
third of this number was registered by Ger-
many in Q1 2016, with a majority of detec-
tions reported from its airports. Recently also 
Belgium has reported an increase in detec-
tions of illegal stay related to this nationality.

Asylum applications on a record level

In Q1 2016, Member States reported slightly 
more than 274 000 asylum applications, 
which is the highest number of any previ-

ous first quarter since FRAN data collec-
tion began in 2007, but only 66% of what 
was reported in Q4 2015. The vast major-
ity of Member States reported decreases in 
asylum applications compared to the last 
quarter, and some major asylum destina-
tions such as Sweden, Switzerland and the 
UK also within the quarter.

Due to re-established controls at the in-
ternal borders and the introduction of the 
carrier’s obligation to check the passenger’s 
travel documents, Sweden for example re-
ported only one tenth of the 87 000 asy-
lum applications of Q4 2015. In Hungary, by 
contrast,  the  number  of  asylum  applica-
tions was five times as high as in Q4 2015. 
This growth was possibly caused by more 
migrants who broke through the fence at 
the border with Serbia.

Germany  registered  the  highest  number 
of  asylum  cases  since  FRAN  data  collec-
tion began and a further 13% increase com-
pared to the last quarter. This growth was 
however mainly due to a backlog caused 
by  the  large  number  of  asylum  seekers 
who  arrived  in  the  EU  during  the  mi-
gration  peak  of  2015.  Due  to  this  back-
log, the reported EU asylum applications 

14 of 33

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overview 
Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo*

Albania

Morocco

Iraq

China

Nigeria

Pakistan

India

Returns

Nationality of returned people, Q1 2016

Number

Member States 
which have sent data

4 000

1 000

Decisions vs. Effective returns
Number in parenthesis is for Q1 2015

Decisions

Effective
returns

69 392
(63 212)
46 996
(37 562)

did not immediately follow the rise of ir-
regular  migration  to  the  EU  in  the  sec-
ond half 2015. In the first quarter of 2016, 
the situation turned around: Although the 
migration pressure on the Eastern Mediter-
ranean route decreased, the asylum num-
bers especially in Germany remained on an 
unprecedented level, as the asylum author-
ities partly processed those cases of 2015.

Replacing in the EU-wide FRAN data the 
German  asylum  application  figures  with 
the number of deposited intentions to ap-
ply for asylum in Germany (according to 
the ‘EASY’ system), shows that the asylum 
situation has indeed calmed down and is 
more or less in line with the current pres-
sure on the external borders.

EU-wide, Syrians were again the top-rank-
ing asylum nationality in the EU/Schengen 
area with more than 100 000 applications 
in the reporting period, which is more than 
three times as many as in Q1 2015. Both 
Moldovan  and  Moroccan  asylum  appli-
cations  reached  their  highest  level  since 
FRAN  data  collection  began.  While  97% 
of  all  Moldovan  applications  were  sub-
mitted  in  Germany  in  Q1  2016,  Hungary 
has been reported increasing detections 

of illegal stay of Moldovan citizens already 
since  the  beginning  of  2015,  reaching  a 
peak in Q4 2015.

In Q1 2016, Hungary was also the Member 
State reporting the highest number of asy-
lum applications of Moroccans, drastically 
growing from less than 10 in Q4 2015 to 
almost 700 in the reporting period. FRAN 
data show that they were preceded by ille-
gal border-crossings from Serbia. Germany 
registered a similarly high level of Moroc-
can applications for international protec-
tion. According to FRAN intra-Schengen 
data, most of them were detected with-
out valid travel documents on trains and 
private vehicles coming from Austria.

Numbers of return decisions and 
effective returns lower than in the 
last quarter

In Q1 2015, Member State authorities is-
sued 69 392 decisions to third country na-
tionals with an obligation to leave the EU 
following an administrative or judicial de-
cision.  Thus  the  number  of  return  deci-
sions has decreased by 10% compared to 
last quarter and increased by 10% in rela-
tion to Q1 2015, although Member States 

have  been  reporting  increasing  asylum 
applications  by  migrants  from  countries 
with  low  asylum  recognition  rates.  This 
downward trend was most visible in the 
case of citizens of North African countries, 
for whom this indicator, since last quarter, 
decreased by 7% to 9 873 return decisions.

Also the number of effective returns re-
ported by Member States has decreased 
since  last  quarter,  although  to  a  lesser 
extent.  During  the  reporting  period,  al-
most 47 000 effective returns took place, 
which is 3% less than in Q4 2015, and 25% 
more than in Q1 2015. Fewer returns were 
for example reported of citizens of Latin 
American countries, by 17% compared to 
one year ago and by 21% since Q4 2015 to 
1 957 in Q1 2016.

Number of arrested facilitators 
stable

Figures  related  to  detections  of  facilita-
tors of irregular migration have remained 
on around the same levels as in Q4 2015. 
Compared  to  one  year  ago,  the  number 
of  arrested  facilitators  grew  by  12%,  to 
2 972 persons.

15 of 33

fran · q1 2016II.  Featured risk analysis

Western Balkan route

 Lower migration pressure and 
diversifying routes

n   Migrants search for new 

ways to transit the Western 
Balkans

n   New routes more difficult to 

monitor

The large migratory flows of the late sum-
mer and autumn of 2015 were channelled 
on  one  main  route  across  the  Western 
Balkans, thus the migrants’ movements 
were  more  visible.  Due  to  their  sheer 
number, however, it was difficult for the 
authorities to identify and register all ir-
regular migrants. For this reason, several 
thousands of those who were registered 
at  the  EU’s  external  border  during  2015 
are not yet registered as asylum seekers.

The current closure of the borders makes 
it  even  more  difficult  for  the  border  au-
thorities  in  the  region  to  maintain  and 
update the situational picture of the mi-
gratory flows. The majority of the persons 
on the route are stranded in Greece and, 
to a lesser extent, in the former Yugoslav 
Republic of Macedonia and Serbia. How-
ever, law-enforcement authorities cannot 
always  trace  the  whereabouts  of  those 
groups  that  decided  to  bypass  the  bor-
der barriers to get to their destinations in 
Western and Northern Europe. In this re-
gard, the current situation of closed bor-
ders resembles the first half of 2015, when 
the migrant routes through Europe were 
more diversified, dynamic and dangerous. 
The countries of the region have indeed re-

ported an increasing fragmentation of the 
routes since the beginning of March 2016.

Greece to the former Yugoslav 
Republic of Macedonia: 
Individual and group attempts 
to cross the border

Most migrants who arrived in Greece and 
made it to the mainland gathered at the port 
of Piraeus and in different camps around 
Idomeni. From Idomeni, the authorities have 
reported  various  protests  and  group  at-
tempts to break through the fence to the 
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. 

To avoid the increasing risk of unrest and 
violence at the border to the former Yu-
goslav Republic of Macedonia, on 24 May, 
Greece dismantled the Idomeni camp and 
relocated most of its 9 000 residents to 
shelters  further  away  from  the  border. 
Around half of them were brought to new 
or existing official camps. Another 4 000 
to  5  000  persons  left  Idomeni  on  their 
own and moved into other nearby areas 
and official or unofficial camps.

In  spite  of  the  relocations,  several  thou-
sand  still  linger  near  the  border  with  the 

x
e
t
n
o
r
F
©

Figure 1.  Clandestine migrants at BCP Kapitan Andreevo

16 of 33

 
former  Yugoslav  Republic  of  Macedonia. 
It is expected that the Greek government 
will continue to reorganise the accommo-
dation system and reallocate migrants from 
unofficial  camps  into  official  camps  fur-
ther  away  from  the  border  with  the  for-
mer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It is 
estimated that all over Greece, at the end 
of June, there were well over 57 000 mi-
grants. Smaller numbers of persons com-
ing from Turkey are constantly adding to 
this number.

The authorities of the former Yugoslav Re-
public of Macedonia on the other side of 
the border have reported continuously high 
pressure on its police forces caused by vi-
olence and riots committed by migrants 
resulting in serious damage, and ongoing 
attempts to enter the country undetected. 
Migrant smugglers are exploring new routes 
and target areas of lower police surveillance 
for their attempts of illegal border-crossings. 

Serbia to Hungary: 
Increasing number of illegal 
border-crossings by breaking 
through the fence

The completion of a fence along the Hun-
garian border with Serbia in mid-Septem-
ber, and with Croatia in mid-October 2015 
had effectively stopped the migratory flow 
through Hungary. With every measure of the 
countries along the Western Balkan route to 
curb the migratory flow, the number of ille-
gal border-crossings has gradually increased. 
In April and May 2016, the number of detec-
tions reported by Hungary was on its high-
est level since the completion of the fence.

Bulgaria to Serbia: Migration 
flow on a relatively low level 
but steadily increasing

Between February and April 2016, as least 
12 hundred irregular migrants were appre-
hended on exit from Bulgaria at the Serbian 
land border in the area covered by a Fron-
tex-coordinated Joint Operation. The main 
nationalities apprehended on exit to Ser-
bia were Afghans, Iraqis and Pakistani. The 
detections in this border area account for 
most of the flow from Bulgaria to Serbia. 

Czech Republic

Germany

Slovakia

Austria

Hungary

Romania

Slovenia

Croatia

Bosnia and
Herzegovina

Serbia

Kosovo*

Bulgaria

Montenegro

Italy

FYR
Macedonia

Albania

Number of reported irregular migrants, 9 March–8 May

insigniﬁcant number
< 100

< 101 – 1 000

> 10o1

Number of persons accommodated in migrant facilities

< 100

< 1000

> 1000

Turkey

Figure 2.  Irregular migration situation along 

Greece

the Western Balkan route

Source: Information provided by Member States and 
affected countries

Migrants  apprehended  on  exit  to  Serbia 
claimed during interviews that they had 
crossed  the  border  from  Turkey  to  Bul-
garia  at  an  unknown  location  and  had 
been  transported  by  people  smugglers 
towards Sofia, where they had stayed for 
several days in safe houses. At the same 
time,  Bulgaria  detected  around  900  il-
legal  border-crossings  at  its  land  border 
with Turkey. Apart from that route, also 
migrants  who  were  previously  stranded 
in  Greek  make-shift  camps  close  to  the 
border with the former Yugoslav Repub-
lic of Macedonia were assisted by people 
smugglers to get to Bulgaria.

Later, migrants in Sofia were transported 
near the Bulgarian-Serbian border, were 
people smugglers again helped them to 
cross the border on foot and tried to reach 
Belgrade. From Belgrade they travelled to 
the  Hungarian  land  border,  from  where 
they could reach other EU Member States. 

Conclusion: More fragmented 
migratory flows, though at 
lower levels

The map in Figure 2 shows reported de-
tections  of  illegal  border-crossings  and 
number  of  migrants  in  permanent  and 
temporary facilities. It indicates that the re-
strictions along the Western Balkan route 
have led to a significant decrease in irreg-
ular migration in this region. In contrast to 
the period when the authorities allowed 

and the transit of irregular migrants, the 
route currently appears to be more diver-
sified.  More  migrants  try  to  bypass  the 
border between Greece and the former Yu-
goslav Republic of Macedonia, for example 
taking the route via Albania. The detections 
at the Albanian borders with Montenegro 
and Bosnia, however, are very low and do 
not  confirm  any  major  displacement  of 
the flow into these mountainous regions.

On the other hand, an increasing number 
of migrants stranded in Greece have been 
trying to find longer routes to circumvent 
the border fence built by the former Yu-
goslav Republic of Macedonia. 

Further along the route, the number of il-
legal border-crossings between Serbia and 
Hungary  have  reached  the  highest  level 
since  Hungary  has  completed  its  fence 
along the Hungarian border with its south-
ern neighbours in mid-October 2015. Data 
reported by Serbia, however, do not shed 
any light on the previous route of those mi-
grants detected on entry to Hungary. The 
most likely explanation is that they came 
from either Bulgaria or the former Yugo-
slav  Republic  of  Macedonia  and  Greece. 
The  number  of  irregular  migrants  arriv-
ing in Austria confirms that since March, 
the flow on the Western Balkan route has 
shifted from Croatia and Slovenia back to 
Hungary. While the route has diversified, 
the total volume of the migratory flow is 
far lower than in the second half of 2015.

17 of 33

fran · q1 2016??III. Statistical annex

LEGEND

Symbols and abbreviations:  n.a.  not applicable 

: 

  data not available

Source:   FRAN and EDF-RAN data as of 6 May 2016,  

unless otherwise indicated

Note:  

 ‘Member States’ in the tables refer to FRAN Member 
States, including both 28 EU Member States 
and three Schengen Associated Countries

18 of 33
18 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex Table 1.  Illegal border-crossing between BCPs

Detections reported by border type and nationality at the external borders

2014

Q4

2015

2016

% change on

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

All Borders

Not specified

Syria

Afghanistan

Iraq

Pakistan

Iran

Nigeria

Gambia

Guinea

Somalia

Others

102 343

100 236

98

102

22 274

12 329

9 308

1 270

902

158

2 178

2 571

670

2 191

6 862

1 559

1 062

251

1 087

1 512

568

1 664

232

52 920

31 022

5 321

8 046

737

8 044

2 478

1 117

6 477

91 119

306 413

92 216

23 798

21 463

3 536

10 188

2 746

1 433

5 092

464 981

222 397

137 385

70 597

12 739

20 147

4 286

2 138

2 056

4 461

76 048

39 941

25 403

6 956

4 903

3 502

2 487

2 264

2 179

38 270

33 562

51 598

57 458

36 978

18 499

Total All Borders

79 890

60 558

167 992

615 462

978 165

284 525

Land Borders

Not specified

Syria

Iraq

Pakistan

Albania

Afghanistan

Morocco

Iran

Kosovo*

Somalia

Others

93

5 029

525

288

3 207

4 840

5

94

97

3 646

1 180

687

2 032

4 308

17

166

17 569

22 631

43

1 982

117

2 043

464 927

102 332

105 397

206

11 550

2 375

2 800

2 878

14 455

155

364

515

246

91 054

79 605

5 376

13 795

2 309

35 447

59

990

391

344

2 750

1 204

162

2 231

867

12

28

255

60

1 630

1 553

1 438

1 436

1 289

586

406

336

279

4 729

8 169

1 131

1 505

Total Land Border

33 675

36 924

40 273

237 539

473 627

112 790

Sea Borders

Syria

Afghanistan

Iraq

Pakistan

Iran

Nigeria

Gambia

Guinea

Somalia

Côte d'Ivoire

Others

17 245

4 468

745

614

64

2 112

2 558

606

2 148

690

14 965

8 683

2 554

379

375

85

1 026

1 471

385

1 547

688

6 441

41 370

16 567

2 946

5 246

373

7 732

2 407

959

6 231

1 418

226 808

56 769

18 422

7 668

2 546

9 631

2 692

1 304

4 748

1 353

219 647

136 518

69 393

12 577

20 119

4 277

2 129

1 921

4 401

1 176

74 418

38 652

23 850

5 518

4 497

3 482

2 485

2 233

1 900

1 755

42 470

45 982

32 380

12 945

Total Sea Border

46 215

23 634

127 719

377 923

504 538

171 735

517

482

1 529

555

1 853

222

64

299

31

-45

370

-55

32

109

-29

-70

3 347

145

-99

138

-26

205

757

1 413

6 193

1 371

5 191

239

69

480

23

155

101

627

-78

-66

-71

-64

-45

-76

-18

16

10

-51

-50

36

27

14

8.9

2.4

1.7

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.8

6.5

-71

100

-78

-41

29

788

-36

49

4 783

1 350

32

365

33

-76

-66

-72

-66

-56

-78

-19

17

16

-57

49

-60

91

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.1

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

1.3

100

43

23

14

3.2

2.6

2.0

1.4

1.3

1.1

1.0

7.5

-66

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo* declaration of independence.

19 of 33
19 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016Annex Table 2.  Clandestine entries at BCPs

Detections reported by Member State, border type and top ten nationalities

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Highest share

2016 Q1

Border Type

Land
Sea

Top Ten Nationalities

Syria
Morocco
Iraq
Guinea
Algeria
Afghanistan
Palestine
India
Ukraine
Libya
Others

Total

1 133
 19

1 105
 1

 515
 0
 70
 14
 18
 438
 1
 0
 3
 0
 93

 531

 98
 28
 18
 364
 0
 0
 0
 0
 67

 798
 6

 425
 6
 8
 14
 28
 259
 0
 0
 0
 0
 64

 689
 4

 338

 137
 5
 24
 154
 1
 0
 0
 0
 34

 696
 4

 379
 2
 61
 19
 2
 189
 0
 0
 0
 2
 46

1 152

1 106

 804

 693

 700

 586

 567
 19

-49
1 800

-19
375

 127
 121
 77
 72
 68
 40
 14
 12
 10
 7
 38

-76
n.a.
-21
157
278
-89
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-43

-47

-66
5 950
26
279
3 300
-79
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
250
-17

-16

Nationality

Syria (22%)
India (63%)

97
3.2

22
21
13
12
12
6.8
2.4
2
1.7
1.2
6.5

100

*  This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence 

Annex Table 3.  Facilitators

Detections reported by Member State, place of detection and top ten nationalities

Highest share

Nationality

Not specified (19%)

Morocco (25%)

Bulgaria (16%)

UK (16%)

UK (19%)

Congo (7.8%)

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

1 976

85

307

109

197

88

312

237

116

117

103

136

17

58

23

68

878

888

272

228

306

72

278

144

176

88

154

123

19

67

65

64

1 575

1 466

1 428

913

343

216

252

73

276

144

183

105

134

158

49

99

48

1 366

1 032

449

332

185

67

337

206

168

112

92

147

34

93

37

997

822

349

361

129

65

247

209

86

65

89

183

61

90

64

107

1 922

127

2 078

128

1 501

1 012

1 003

412

350

144

51

323

290

205

129

126

116

102

102

91

91

1 397

2 762

2 644

3 225

3 431

2 723

2 972

15

13

51

54

-53

-29

16

101

16

47

-18

-5.7

437

52

40

42

-4.7

12

1.5

22

18

-3

12

-22

31

39

138

98

42

-37

67

13

42

-29

-6.9

9.1

34

34

14

12

4.8

1.7

11

9.8

6.9

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.4

3.4

3.1

3.1

47

100

Place of Detection

Inland

Not specified

Land

Sea

Land Intra EU

Air

Top Ten Nationalities

Morocco

Not specified

Spain

Italy

France

Albania

Afghanistan

Pakistan

UK

Bulgaria

Others

Total

20 of 33
20 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 4.  Illegal stay

Detections reported by Member State, place of detection and top ten nationalities

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Highest share

2016 Q1

Place of Detection

Inland

Air

Land

Land Intra EU

Between BCPs

Sea

Top Ten Nationalities

Afghanistan

Syria

Iraq

Morocco

Iran

Ukraine

Albania

Pakistan

Algeria

Nigeria

Others

Total

101 709

94 482

135 717

225 610

176 644

108 422

9 663

4 167

1 020

64

284

8 540

17 198

2 413

7 254

1 857

5 113

6 660

3 108

3 660

2 032

8 486

2 977

1 022

34

186

7 464

9 698

3 283

7 028

1 425

4 219

6 616

3 573

3 409

2 258

9 654

4 477

1 399

115

175

17 112

22 525

8 030

6 784

1 562

5 209

7 765

5 361

3 895

2 951

10 541

12 498

12 326

5 307

1 772

44

219

30 554

72 454

28 264

6 271

2 610

6 269

8 040

8 940

3 501

3 527

5 536

1 570

527

101

40 649

35 635

21 872

9 647

8 307

6 940

6 407

5 303

4 136

3 649

4 453

1 132

1 082

88

16 135

14 008

13 049

9 055

7 290

5 200

4 892

4 708

4 638

3 278

60 156

58 224

70 357

73 090

54 331

45 258

117 991 107 197 151 551 243 520 196 876 127 511

Nationality

Afghanistan (15%)

Iraq (12%)

Ukraine (51%)

Moldova (48%)

Iran (83%)

Tunisia (58%)

15

45

50

11

3082

-53

116

44

297

29

412

23

-26

32

36

45

-22

19

-39

-1.4

-20

-28

105

-13

-60

-61

-40

-6.1

-12

-25

-24

-11

12

-10

-17

-35

85

9.7

3.5

0.9

0.8

0.1

13

11

10

7.1

5.7

4.1

3.8

3.7

3.6

2.6

35

100

21 of 33
21 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 20162015

2016

% change on

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

Annex Table 5.  Refusals of entry

Refusals reported by Member State and by border type at the external borders

2014

Q4

4 578

3 650

2 815

2 277

862

1 394

979

637

376

669

All Borders

Ukraine

Albania

Russian Federation

Serbia

Morocco

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Brazil

Moldova

Turkey

Others

5 390

3 231

1 666

1 848

987

901

964

699

534

588

6 077

3 705

2 189

1 683

1 015

1 124

1 026

669

435

683

7 684

3 922

3 593

1 777

1 096

1 378

950

579

541

1 347

10 507

6 131

4 171

3 243

1 599

1 090

1 314

845

705

555

632

6 555

3 615

2 483

1 925

1 755

1 068

990

883

689

547

9 420

9 743

13 116

10 415

9 801

Total All Borders

31 353

27 223

28 407

33 374

29 705

30 253

Land Borders

Ukraine

Russian Federation

Albania

Serbia

Morocco

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

FYR Macedonia

Moldova

Tajikistan

Others

4 253

2 429

1 897

2 105

531

1 358

931

407

199

161

5 046

1 378

1 539

1 633

543

861

907

388

326

105

5 704

1 798

1 903

1 447

603

1 086

975

381

207

48

7 310

3 232

2 069

1 565

665

1 349

899

469

268

204

5 797

2 910

2 382

1 371

663

1 294

797

285

237

281

6 290

2 215

1 701

1 679

1 240

1 047

942

414

347

299

3 553

1 046

1 290

2 157

1 210

1 170

Total Land Border

17 824

13 772

15 442

20 187

17 227

17 344

Air Borders

Albania

Brazil

Algeria

China

India

Moldova

United States

Nigeria

Not specified

Morocco

Others

1 115

1 076

1 172

1 250

1 107

1 164

628

692

433

357

176

527

493

522

230

696

693

413

353

208

600

402

336

312

648

643

358

253

226

394

306

365

289

573

521

423

243

268

398

323

453

250

699

477

361

273

315

350

358

373

272

878

477

380

355

339

338

325

282

267

7 177

7 166

6 996

7 038

6 551

6 653

Total Air Border

12 350

12 255

11 650

11 740

11 136

11 458

Sea Borders

Albania

Morocco

Tunisia

Afghanistan

Algeria

Iraq

Syria

Turkey

Iran

India

Others

638

101

43

14

17

16

41

13

8

22

616

132

44

81

18

12

24

33

9

27

630

123

57

28

31

19

32

77

10

27

266

200

281

603

181

32

36

23

31

33

128

23

36

321

682

155

57

21

22

44

41

35

37

19

750

248

50

44

34

30

29

26

25

18

229

197

Total Sea Border

1 179

1 196

1 315

1 447

1 342

1 451

22 of 33
22 of 33

22

12

49

4.2

78

19

2.7

26

29

-7

-6.5

11

25

61

11

2.8

128

22

3.9

6.7

6.4

185

12

26

8.2

26

-31

-8

0.6

63

-44

-19

-16

-14

-7.2

-6.5

22

88

14

-46

89

150

21

-21

178

-33

-1.5

21

6.9

-13

-23

20

61

-19

17

25

24

-13

3.4

1.8

8.5

-24

-29

22

87

-19

18

45

46

6.4

-3.3

0.7

5.1

26

0

5.3

30

7.6

-3.4

-9.2

-24

-1.8

1.6

2.9

10

60

-12

110

55

-32

-29

-26

-32

-5.3

-14

8.1

22

12

8.2

6.4

5.8

3.5

3.3

2.9

2.3

1.8

32

100

36

13

9.8

9.7

7.1

6.0

5.4

2.4

2.0

1.7

6.7

100

10

7.7

4.2

3.3

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.3

58

100

52

17

3.4

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.2

14

100

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 6.  Refusals of entry

Refusals of entry at the external borders reported by reasons for refusal, Member State and top ten nationalities

Refused  
persons  
Total

2016 Q1 – Reasons for refusals of entry (see description below)

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

n.a.

Total  
Reasons

Top Ten Nationalities

Ukraine

Albania

Russian Federation

Serbia

Morocco

Belarus

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Brazil

Moldova

Turkey

Others

Total

6 555

3 615

2 483

1 925

1 755

1 068

990

883

689

547

9 743

20

25

5

41

310

16

269

0

1

21

667

44

35

2

14

20

3

0

1

0

3

1 474

53

1 733

148

319

414

96

134

72

353

7

1

3

1

18

0

0

0

3

3 208

1 246

262

248

688

113

317

280

300

72

340

217

78

822

36

67

28

48

69

43

606

898

111

236

58

195

238

69

133

22

657

295

953

32

405

198

37

27

65

100

14

389

51

52

198

7

87

131

12

9

5

4

187

743

531

161

76

6

25

99

4

279

11

15

6 576

3 641

2 500

1 928

1 759

1 075

991

885

691

550

1 741

9 843

2 950

30 439

30 253

1 375

9 705

2 244

3 223

2 515

260

382

2 339

7 133

136

169

2 971

496

Descriptions of the reasons for refusal of entry:
A  has no valid travel document(s);
B  has a false/counterfeit/forged travel document;
C  has no valid visa or residence permit;
D  has a false/counterfeit/forged visa or residence permit;
E  has no appropriate documentation justifying the purpose and conditions of stay;
F  has already stayed for three months during a six months period on the territory of the Member States of the EU;
G  does not have sufficient means of subsistence in relation to the period and form of stay, or the means to return to the country of origin or transit;
H 
I 

is a person for whom an alert has been issued for the purposes of refusing entry in the SIS or in the national register;
 is considered to be a threat for public policy, internal security, public health or the international relations of one or more Member States of the EU.

23 of 33
23 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016Annex Table 7.  Refusals of entry

Refusals of entry at the external borders by reasons for refusal

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

All Borders

E) No justification

C) No valid visa

G) No subsistence

Reason not available

H) Alert issued

F) Over 3 month stay

A) No valid document

I) Threat

B) False document

D) False visa

6 714

9 739

2 969

4 264

3 370

1 897

1 254

694

545

287

8 053

5 955

2 781

3 893

2 512

1 585

1 133

642

541

200

9 023

6 766

3 046

3 040

2 595

1 390

1 340

648

450

210

9 539

9 925

2 885

3 985

2 635

1 700

1 573

609

431

232

8 702

8 003

3 159

3 226

2 457

1 847

1 181

669

433

230

9 705

7 135

3 223

2 948

2 515

2 244

1 375

743

382

169

Total All Borders

31 733

27 295

28 508

33 514

29 907

30 439

Land Borders

E) No justification

C) No valid visa

G) No subsistence

F) Over 3 month stay

H) Alert issued

A) No valid document

Reason not available

I) Threat

B) False document

D) False visa

3 043

7 505

1 614

1 519

2 504

558

570

433

62

40

3 933

3 762

1 625

1 139

1 606

541

640

431

83

36

4 790

4 257

1 896

1 058

1 668

670

553

442

108

25

5 683

7 432

1 789

1 324

1 800

823

758

473

104

39

4 640

5 914

1 952

1 438

1 529

556

608

499

77

44

5 256

4 956

1 930

1 696

1 597

710

639

476

82

28

Total Land Border

17 848

13 796

15 467

20 225

17 257

17 370

Air Borders

E) No justification

Reason not available

C) No valid visa

G) No subsistence

H) Alert issued

A) No valid document

F) Over 3 month stay

B) False document

I) Threat

D) False visa

3 444

3 507

2 129

1 117

627

591

377

467

230

217

3 830

3 120

2 053

928

629

513

433

452

188

155

3 915

2 273

2 325

999

671

555

317

329

168

174

3 585

3 009

2 256

882

564

580

364

311

113

177

3 793

2 421

1 942

929

665

525

399

327

143

162

4 047

2 149

2 049

1 003

631

542

530

290

235

136

21

20

16

-24

0.1

42

21

16

-29

-16

12

34

32

19

49

-0.6

31

-0.2

10

-1.2

-22

26

5.7

-31

-0.2

8.1

0.3

5.7

22

-36

25

-12

Total Air Border

12 706

12 301

11 726

11 841

11 306

11 612

-5.6

Sea Borders

E) No justification

G) No subsistence

H) Alert issued

Reason not available

C) No valid visa

A) No valid document

I) Threat

F) Over 3 month stay

B) False document

D) False visa

227

238

239

187

105

105

31

1

16

30

290

228

277

133

140

79

23

13

6

9

318

151

256

214

184

115

38

15

13

11

271

214

271

218

237

170

23

12

16

16

269

278

263

197

147

100

27

10

29

24

400

289

284

160

130

123

32

18

10

5

Total Sea Border

1 179

1 198

1 315

1 448

1 344

1 451

38

27

2.5

20

-7.1

56

39

38

67

-44

21

12

-11

2.0

-8.6

2.4

21

16

11

-12

-27

1.8

13

-16

-1.1

18

4.4

28

5.1

-4.6

6.5

-36

0.7

6.7

-11

5.5

8.0

-5.1

3.2

33

-11

64

-16

2.7

49

4.0

8.0

-19

-12

23

19

80

-66

-79

8.0

32

23

11

9.7

8.3

7.4

4.5

2.4

1.3

0.6

100

30

29

11

9.8

9.2

4.1

3.7

2.7

0.5

0.2

100

35

19

18

8.6

5.4

4.7

4.6

2.5

2.0

1.2

100

28

20

20

11

9.0

8.5

2.2

1.2

0.7

0.3

100

Highest share

Nationality

Ukraine (33%)

Russian Federation (24%)

Albania (28%)

Ukraine (18%)

Albania (38%)

Serbia (37%)

Morocco (23%)

Russian Federation (27%)

Not specified (12%)

Morocco (11%)

Nationality

Ukraine (59%)

Russian Federation (33%)

Ukraine (29%)

Serbia (47%)

Albania (32%)

Morocco (41%)

Ukraine (77%)

Russian Federation (39%)

Ukraine (45%)

Ukraine (18%)

Nationality

Albania (14%)

Brazil (13%)

China (7.4%)

Algeria (13%)

Albania (33%)

Not specified (26%)

Albania (12%)

Not specified (14%)

Suriname (15%)

Congo (10%)

Nationality

Albania (48%)

Albania (92%)

Albania (83%)

Albania (16%)

Morocco (18%)

Iraq (12%)

Albania (56%)

Albania (50%)

Not specified (50%)

Morocco (80%)

24 of 33
24 of 33

FRAN · q1 20152015

2016

% change on

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

Annex Table 8.  Applications for asylum

Applications for international protection reported by Member State and top ten nationalities

2014

Q4

40 240

5 501

14 611

9 621

5 386

2 995

5 783

3 876

8 372

5 098

Top Ten Nationalities

Syria

Iraq

Afghanistan

Not specified

Pakistan

Iran

Nigeria

Albania

Eritrea

Ukraine

Others

Total

28 987

6 912

13 477

6 068

5 038

2 327

4 203

7 784

3 782

4 713

43 748

13 775

27 743

7 036

8 519

3 160

5 955

17 209

13 209

4 984

65 222

141 826

145 981

101 226

44 545

59 099

11 595

21 010

5 525

11 016

25 867

17 736

4 483

73 474

54 149

82 471

19 799

10 365

14 444

7 511

12 045

9 618

4 101

35 062

33 951

13 759

10 745

8 988

5 762

5 471

4 843

3 419

56 860

51 248

79 232

98 278

180 715

181 569

210 560

416 176

417 344

274 474

249

407

152

127

113

286

37

-30

28

-27

-48.0

51

-31

-35

-59

-31

3.7

-38

-23

-55

-50

-17

-9.9

-34

37

13

12

5.0

3.9

3.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

19

100

25 of 33
25 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016per cent 
of total

Highest share

Nationality Claimed

60

37

3.3

Not specified (19%)

Ukraine (45%)

Morocco (82%)

Nationality document

19

13

9.1

4.7

4.0

3.9

3.6

2.7

2.1

1.7

37

Poland (73%)

France (35%)

Spain (90%)

Spain (30%)

Spain (48%)

Poland (81%)

Spain (19%)

Bulgaria (56%)

UK (33%)

Portugal (32%)

France (15%)

-11

15

-13

n.a.

39

-16

-18

3.6

7.4

125

-46

-24

2.6

29

-7

-2.7

100

Annex Table 9.  Document fraud

Fraudulent document users detected on entry from third countries, by border type and top ten nationalities

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

2016 Q1

Border Type

Air

Land

Sea

Not specified

1 728

696

66

1

1 488

660

35

4

1 328

703

39

0

1 278

721

216

0

1 237

587

69

0

1 105

677

60

0

Top Ten Nationalities Claimed

Ukraine

Not specified

Morocco

Albania

Iran

Turkey

Syria

Iraq

Nigeria

Senegal

Others

Total

118

231

222

134

75

63

407

157

132

71

881

152

176

194

155

110

23

258

55

158

47

859

364

269

162

89

66

21

184

74

55

35

751

420

291

306

96

96

38

179

48

40

31

670

250

274

205

84

68

32

124

66

38

24

728

347

231

168

87

73

72

67

50

39

31

677

2 491

2 187

2 070

2 215

1 893

1 842

-26

2.6

71

n.a.

128

31

-13

-44

-34

213

-74

-9.1

-75

-34

-21

-16

26 of 33
26 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 10.  Document fraud

False documents detected on entry from third country, by type of document and type of fraud

Document Type

Passports

Authentic

Forged

No more details

Counterfeit

Stolen blank

Pseudo

ID cards

Authentic

Counterfeit

Forged

Stolen blank

No more details

Pseudo

Visas

Authentic

Counterfeit

No more details

Forged

Stolen blank

Pseudo

Residence permits

Counterfeit

Authentic

Forged

No more details

Stolen blank

Stamps

Counterfeit

Forged

No more details

Other

Counterfeit

Authentic

Forged

Stolen blank

Pseudo

No more details

Total

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

2016 Q1

per cent 
of total

Highest share

Nationality Document

1 330

1 157

1 006

1 010

423

572

126

180

29

0

423

121

154

45

43

57

3

450

160

234

21

34

1

0

377

161

82

48

41

45

222

167

44

11

59

33

11

4

0

1

10

428

481

92

128

28

0

266

89

107

22

28

12

8

472

155

263

12

31

10

1

332

150

91

39

17

35

251

169

76

6

60

39

17

3

0

1

0

401

376

101

99

28

1

291

99

129

23

24

10

6

505

318

134

13

31

8

1

296

114

109

35

14

24

214

152

52

10

44

31

4

3

2

2

2

372

409

121

91

16

1

320

122

129

26

26

17

0

576

350

130

43

38

15

0

379

127

149

49

25

29

242

200

33

9

46

30

7

6

0

1

2

892

296

322

142

100

32

0

326

94

145

40

26

18

3

381

194

125

32

23

7

0

376

142

135

45

31

23

196

172

20

4

47

30

6

5

1

2

3

744

270

264

122

75

13

0

256

100

99

29

17

11

0

580

345

116

83

33

3

0

289

120

108

26

20

15

198

163

29

6

56

46

4

2

2

1

1

-36

-37

-45

33

-41

-54

n.a.

-4

12

-7.5

32

-39

-8.3

n..a

23

123

-56

592

6.5

-70

n.a.

-13

-20

19

-33

18

-57

-21

-4

-62

0

-7

18

-76

-33

n.a.

0

n.a.

-17

-8.8

-18

-14

-25

-59

n.a.

-21

6.4

-32

-28

-35

-39

n.a.

52

78

-7.2

159

43

-57

n.a.

-23

-15

-20

-42

-35

-35

1

-5

45

50

19

53

-33

-60

100

-50

-67

35

36

35

16

10

1.7

12

39

39

11

6.6

4.3

27

59

20

14

5.7

0.5

14

42

37

9

6.9

5.2

9.3

82

14.6

3

2. 6

82

7.1

3.6

3.6

1.8

1.8

2 861

2 538

2 356

2 573

2 218

2 123

-16

-4.3

100

Not specified (22%)

France (16%)

India (6.4%)

South Africa (20%)

Albania (6.7%)

Syria (23%)

Morocco (28%)

Spain (60%)

Italy (15%)

Italy (41%)

Italy (88%)

Italy (45%)

Ukraine (38%)

Poland (59%)

Germany (17%)

Germany (66%)

Spain (58%)

France (33%)

Not specified (24%)

Spain (23%)

France (31%)

Italy (42%)

Germany (30%)

Greece (67%)

Slovakia (17%)

Italy (21%)

France (40%)

Albania (18%)

Italy (28%)

Senegal (25%)

UK (50%)

Belgium (50%)

Not specified (100%)

France (100%)

27 of 33
27 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016Annex Table 11A.  Document fraud

Fraudulent documents detected on entry from third countries, by document type and top ten combinations of country of issuance and type of document fraud

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

2016 Q1

per cent 
of total

Highest share

Nationality Claimed

1 330

1 157

1 006

1 010

892

744

52

34

2

15

148

12

2

18

4

10

1 033

423

76

43

22

22

16

19

9

3

6

21

186

449

89

6

37

5

11

24

28

99

9

63

38

14

108

19

2

10

5

10

888

266

55

27

8

32

13

10

5

5

2

10

99

472

107

1

2

10

4

2

13

35

51

26

67

23

1

19

69

5

3

18

15

8

778

291

50

24

15

28

18

4

10

6

7

14

115

505

268

4

4

19

9

7

18

12

28

6

57

34

9

49

4

3

13

19

15

807

320

75

25

15

25

10

11

8

8

6

18

119

576

305

8

30

25

7

17

17

12

15

51

28

15

15

28

3

15

9

13

23

692

326

60

25

11

33

11

14

4

8

9

23

128

381

150

7

13

16

6

10

10

21

6

14

43

26

24

21

20

17

15

14

14

12

538

256

60

15

15

15

13

12

11

10

9

8

88

580

204

89

55

20

19

16

15

13

12

10

141

221

130

140

128

127

-36

-32

-32

n.a.

50

-81

-11

650

40

180

20

-39

-4

9.1

-44

88

-53

0

20

120

100

350

-20

-11

23

91

8 800

 2 650

100

375

700

15

-63

-76

-62

-43

-17

-16

-7.1

60

40

-29

467

0

56

7.7

-48

-22

-21

0

-40

36

-55

18

-14

175

25

0

-65

-31

52

36

1 171

323

25

217

60

50

-38

100

-29

-0.8

35

5.8

3.5

3.2

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.6

72

12

23

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.1

4.7

4.3

3.9

3.5

3.1

34

27

35

15

9.5

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.2

2.1

1.7

22

Not specified (22%)

Not specified (44%)

Morocco (42%)

Zimbabwe (100%)

Not specified (62%)

Morocco (45%)

Sri Lanka (53%)

Syria (60%)

Afghanistan (50%)

Ukraine (100%)

Syria (67%)

Not specified (21%)

Morocco (28%)

Morocco (83%)

Albania (60%)

Not specified (53%)

Albania (47%)

Iran (31%)

Albania (83%)

Iraq (36%)

Syria (30%)

Morocco (100%)

Morocco (38%)

Albania (20%)

Ukraine (38%)

Ukraine (91%)

Ukraine (38%)

Turkey (58%)

Turkey (15%)

Not specified (37%)

Mongolia (38%)

Central African Republic (27%)

Russian Federation (31%)

Benin (17%)

Congo (50%)

Turkey (17%)

Document Type

Passports

FRA-Authentic

ESP-Authentic

ZAF-No more details

NGA-Authentic

MAR-Authentic

IND-Forged

SYR-No more details

GBR-Forged

UKR-Forged

SYR-Forged

Others

ID cards

ESP-Authentic

ITA-Stolen blank

FRA-Authentic

ITA-Counterfeit

ROU-Counterfeit

ITA-Forged

FRA-Counterfeit

ESP-Counterfeit

ESP-Forged

BEL-Counterfeit

Others

Visas

POL-Authentic

LTU-Authentic

DEU-No more details

DEU-Counterfeit

ESP-Forged

LVA-Authentic

FRA-Authentic

ESP-Counterfeit

FRA-Counterfeit

BEL-Counterfeit

Others

28 of 33
28 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 11B.  Document fraud

Top ten combinations of nationality of document and document fraud by document type

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

2016 Q1

Document Type

Residence permits

377

332

296

379

376

289

FRA-Authentic

ESP-Counterfeit

ITA-Authentic

ESP-Authentic

ITA-Counterfeit

BEL-Counterfeit

ITA-Forged

FRA-Counterfeit

GRC-Counterfeit

GRC-Stolen blank

Others

Stamps

SVK-Counterfeit

LTU-Counterfeit

POL-Counterfeit

ESP-Counterfeit

ITA-Counterfeit

FRA-Counterfeit

HUN-Counterfeit

N.A.-Counterfeit

ITA-Forged

BEL-Counterfeit

Others

Other

ITA-Counterfeit

UKR-Counterfeit

SYR-Counterfeit

BEL-Counterfeit

GRC-Counterfeit

BGR-Counterfeit

SVN-Counterfeit

HUN-Counterfeit

AUT-Counterfeit

SEN-Authentic

Others

Total

23

29

9

30

24

25

21

12

12

31

161

222

5

0

16

14

10

11

5

3

5

3

150

59

14

0

0

1

3

2

0

1

0

0

23

28

15

29

32

29

13

8

13

13

129

251

15

3

15

6

9

7

4

2

11

5

174

60

13

2

2

1

2

3

2

0

0

0

42

21

13

29

24

12

6

10

6

3

130

214

18

5

23

7

3

13

12

1

12

4

48

39

15

55

20

31

15

3

6

15

132

242

15

15

30

15

6

11

6

0

10

15

116

43

119

45

9

2

3

0

0

1

0

1

2

0

6

0

4

1

1

0

0

2

0

0

41

34

22

39

43

17

16

15

5

11

133

196

13

15

25

20

21

17

10

2

3

3

67

44

2

2

12

0

3

0

2

0

0

0

34

27

26

25

24

17

11

10

10

10

95

197

28

22

18

17

16

13

10

6

6

5

56

55

13

7

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

38

35

25

31

23

13

2 861

2 538

2 356

2 573

2 218

2 123

per cent 
of total

Highest share

Nationality Claimed

-13

48

-3.6

73

-14

-25

-41

-15

25

-23

-23

-26

-22

87

633

20

183

78

86

150

200

-45

0

-68

- 8

0

250

150

300

50

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

-63

-16

-23

-17

-21

18

-36

-44

0

-31

-33

100

-9.1

-29

1

115

47

-28

-15

-24

-24

0

200

100

67

-16

25

550

250

-58

n.a.

0

n.a.

0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

-43

-4

14

12

9.3

9.0

8.7

8.3

5.9

3.8

3.5

3.5

3.5

33

9

14

11

9.1

8.6

8.1

6.6

5.1

3.0

3.0

2.5

28

2.6

24

13

9.1

7.3

5.5

5.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

1.8

24

100

Not specified (24%)

Not specified (68%)

Morocco (56%)

Not specified (46%)

Not specified (56%)

Morocco (58%)

Morocco (24%)

Senegal (27%)

Not specified (20%)

Bangladesh (20%)

Albania (20%)

Not specified (14%)

Ukraine (50%)

Ukraine (100%)

Ukraine (95%)

Ukraine (100%)

Ukraine (29%)

Albania (31%)

Not specified (23%)

Ukraine (70%)

Ukraine (33%)

Ukraine (50%)

Congo (D.R.) (40%)

Ukraine (23%)

Albania (18%)

Albania (62%)

Ukraine (86%)

Syria (100%)

Congo (D.R.) (50%)

Greece (33%)

Serbia (67%)

Not specified (50%)

Romania (100%)

Serbia (100%)

Senegal (100%)

Morocco (15%)

29 of 33
29 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016Annex Table 12.  Return decisions issued

Decisions issued by Member State and top ten nationalities

2014

Q4

3 840

4 570

1 161

6 399

3 112

3 865

560

1 864

6 659

1 733

Top Ten Nationalities

Afghanistan

Morocco

Iraq

Albania

Pakistan

Ukraine

Iran

India

Syria

Algeria

Others

Total

2015

2016

% change on

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

2 436

5 349

1 335

5 872

3 354

3 248

492

2 216

4 247

1 622

4 360

5 798

2 961

6 688

3 464

4 268

590

2 012

9 867

1 907

4 984

4 820

5 081

6 410

3 043

4 830

767

1 861

8 590

1 424

6 875

6 393

6 716

7 483

2 916

5 363

1 568

2 198

5 233

1 879

6 845

6 036

5 845

5 420

4 607

4 414

2 400

2 364

2 238

1 768

28 106

33 041

33 856

29 149

30 159

27 455

61 869

63 212

75 771

70 959

76 783

69 392

181

13

338

-7.7

37

36

388

6.7

-47

9.0

-17

9.8

-0.4

-5.6

-13

-28

58

-18

53

7.6

-57

-5.9

-9.0

9.9

8.7

8.4

7.8

6.6

6.4

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.5

40

-9.6

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Annex Table 13.  Effective returns

People effectively returned to third countries by Member State and top ten nationalities

2014

Q4

9 064

515

3 420

1 657

2 264

1 342

2 252

1 464

1 054

837

Top Ten Nationalities

Albania

Iraq

Ukraine

India

Morocco

Kosovo*

Pakistan

Serbia

Nigeria

China

Others

Total

2015

2016

% change on

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

2016 Q1

5 694

485

2 478

1 993

2 274

1 782

2 163

1 721

985

962

7 454

662

3 423

1 943

2 259

3 550

1 889

1 835

1 010

839

7 685

864

4 249

2 755

1 817

2 267

2 335

1 766

1 156

941

9 635

2 818

4 845

2 728

1 808

2 537

1 702

2 160

1 163

862

6 898

3 984

3 670

3 249

3 036

2 160

2 082

1 831

1 061

1 050

18 833

17 025

19 471

18 994

18 189

17 975

42 702

37 562

44 335

44 829

48 447

46 996

21

721

48

63

34

21

-3.7

6.4

7.7

9.1

5.6

25

-28

41

-24

19

68

-15

22

-15

-8.8

22

-1.2

15

8.5

7.8

6.9

6.5

4.6

4.4

3.9

2.3

2.2

38

-3.0

100

*  This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence 

30 of 33
30 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Annex Table 14.  Effective returns by type of return

People effectively returned to third countries by to type of return and top ten nationalities

2014

2015

2016

% change on

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

year ago prev. Qtr

2016 Q1

per cent 
of total

Highest share

Nationality

Albania (20%)

Morocco (34%)

Kosovo* (43%)

Ukraine (16%)

Iraq (24%)

Iraq (35%)

Albania (48%)

17 785

12 384

4 847

554

16 315

10 963

4 815

537

15 945

16 129

9 035

2 802

4 108

8 972

9 646

3 107

3 376

5 118

19 628

14 377

4 712

539

18 315

12 024

3 311

2 980

6 392

17 070

13 814

2 462

794

22 964

15 545

3 838

3 581

4 795

19 415

14 997

3 735

683

24 271

17 249

4 135

2 887

4 761

17 402

12 370

4 102

930

25 190

17 907

3 715

3 568

4 404

42 702

37 562

44 335

44 829

48 447

46 996

1 823

2 073

1 793

2 092

749

781

718

693

620

394

574

327

731

740

627

567

601

347

612

304

2 032

2 074

1 510

975

632

671

579

491

462

410

2 764

968

970

973

424

468

568

462

403

274

3 660

1 668

1 531

1 361

549

562

563

558

455

338

3 169

1 890

1 378

1 127

602

481

438

394

392

388

6.7

13

-15

73

56

86

20

5.7

-14

25

77

-9.7

89

52

-4

-15

-27

14

-36

28

9 033

7 901

9 792

8 796

8 170

7 143

-9.6

-10

-18

9.8

36

3.8

3.8

-10

24

-7.5

37

71

24

5.3

54

71

15

14

9.4

-3.0

100

-13

13

-10

-17

9.7

-14

-22

-29

-14

15

-13

18

11

7.9

6.5

3.5

2.8

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.2

41

Type of Return

Forced

Enforced by Member State

Not specified

Enforced by Joint Operation

Voluntary

Others

IOM-assisted

Not specified

Not specified

Total

Top Ten Nationalities

Forced

Albania

Morocco

Kosovo*

Serbia

Algeria

Tunisia

Nigeria

Ukraine

India

Brazil

Others

Total Forced Returns

17 785

16 315

19 628

17 070

19 415

17 402

6.7

-10

100

Voluntary

Iraq

Ukraine

India

Albania

Pakistan

Kosovo*

China

Bangladesh

Russian Federation

Serbia

Others

223

2 998

1 041

623

684

593

354

343

1 072

665

7 349

286

2 107

1 365

648

816

226

2 891

1 461

645

907

1 051

2 020

494

406

905

979

463

372

813

851

530

3 752

2 337

1 301

1 658

1 286

612

756

977

780

2 601

4 266

2 236

2 032

1 098

1 006

553

664

774

764

3 726

3 255

2 853

1 595

1 442

782

754

743

707

698

7 072

7 666

8 975

8 277

8 635

Total Voluntary Returns 15 945

16 129

18 315

22 964

24 271

25 190

1203

54

109

146

77

-26

53

83

-22

-29

22

56

43

-24

28

-22

31

-22

36

12

-8.7

-8.6

4.3

3.8

15

13

11

6.3

5.7

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

34

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence 

31 of 33
31 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016Annex Table 15.  Passenger flow on entry

Data reported by Member State, border type and groups of nationalities

2014

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q1

2015

Q2

2015 Q3

% change on

Q3

year ago

prev. Qtr

per cent 
of total

Border Type

Land

Air

Sea

Nationality

Not specified

EU

20 987 472

18 020 179

22 165 214

29 267 325

21 122 028

26 305 224

23 891 948

23 856 031

30 561 080

36 872 775

24 824 139

26 098 702

3 539 208

2 232 557

4 770 601

6 376 486

2 829 754

2 047 237

31 379 305

28 828 775

36 391 682

44 130 419

29 638 660

30 931 519

9 311 364

8 281 023

12 057 690

17 127 487

10 301 406

12 558 818

Third country requiring visa

6 783 588

6 043 228

7 544 236

9 381 031

7 508 446

9 278 064

Third country not requiring visa

944 371

955 741

1 503 287

1 877 649

1 327 409

1 682 762

Total

48 418 628 44 108 767 57 496 895 72 516 586 48 775 921 54 451 163

* Data for Belgium and France for March 2016 are not yet available. 
** Data for Spain for air according to definition are not available.

46

9.4

-8.3

7.3

52

54

76

23

25

5.1

-28

4.4

22

24

27

12

48

48

3.8

57

23

17

3.1

100

32 of 33
32 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015Sources and Methods

For the data concerning detections at the 
external borders, some of the border types 
are  not  applicable  to  all  FRAN  Member 
States. This pertains to data on all FRAN 
indicators since the data are provided dis-
aggregated by border type. The definitions 
of  detections  at  land  borders  are  there-
fore not applicable (excluding borders with 
non-Schengen principalities) for Belgium, 
the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Ger-
many, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, 
Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, 
Switzerland and the UK. For Cyprus, the 
land border refers to the Green Line de-
marcation with the area not under the ef-
fective control of the government of the 
Republic  of  Cyprus.  For  sea  borders,  the 
definitions  are  not  applicable  for  land-
locked Member States including Austria, 
the Czech Republic, Hungary, Luxembourg, 
Slovakia and Switzerland.

In  addition,  data  on  detections  of  illegal 
border-crossing at land, air and sea BCPs 
(1B)  are  not  available  for  Iceland,  Ireland 
and Spain and in Greece (these detections 
are included in the data for Indicator 1A). 
Data for Norway only includes detections 
of illegal border-crossing at land and sea 
BCPs (1B), not between BCPs (1A).

Data on detections of illegal border-cross-
ing between sea BCPs (1A) are not availa-
ble for Ireland.

Data on apprehension (FRAN Indicator 2) 
of facilitators is not available for Ireland. 
For Italy, the data are not disaggregated 
by border type, but are reported as total 
apprehensions (not specified). Data for It-
aly and Norway also include the facilitation 
of illegal stay and work. For Romania, the 
data include land intra-EU detections on 
exit at the border with Hungary.

For the data concerning detections of ille-
gal stay (FRAN Indicator 3), data on detec-
tions at exit are not available for Denmark, 
Ireland, Italy, Spain and the UK.

Data  on  refusals  of  entry  (FRAN  Indica-
tor 4) at the external EU borders are not 
disaggregated by reason of refusal for Ire-
land and the UK. Refusals of entry at the 
Spanish land borders at Ceuta and Melilla 
(without the issuance of a refusal form) are 
reported separately and are not included 
in the presented FRAN data.

The data on applications for international 
protection (FRAN Indicator 5) are not dis-

aggregated by place of application (type 
of border on entry or inland applications) 
for Austria, the Czech Republic and Slo-
venia. For these countries, only the total 
number  of  applications  is  reported.  For 
France,  only  asylum  applications  at  the 
external borders are reported, not inland 
applications. For the UK, data reported for 
applications at air BCPs also include appli-
cations at sea BCPs.

The data on return decisions issued (FRAN 
Indicator 7A) are not available for Ireland, 
France, the Netherlands and Sweden. The 
data  on  effective  returns  (FRAN  Indica-
tor 7B) are not available for Ireland. In ad-
dition, the data of effective returns are not 
disaggregated  by  return  operation  (vol-
untary and forced) for Spain. The data on 
voluntary effective returns (FRAN Indica-
tor 7A) are not disaggregated by type of re-
turn operation (IOM-assisted and others) 
for Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland 
and the Netherlands. The data on forced 
effective returns (FRAN Indicator 7A) are 
not disaggregated by type of return op-
eration (enforced by Member Stated and 
by Joint Operations) for Belgium, Finland, 
Iceland and the Netherlands.

33 of 33
33 of 33

FRAN · q1 2015fran · q1 2016For Public Release

Risk Analysis Unit

Reference number: 13471 / 2016

TT-AF-16-001-EN-N 
ISSN 2363-0566

Warsaw, August 2016

European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European UnionPlac Europejski 6 00-844 Warsaw, PolandT +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01frontex@frontex.europa.eu www.frontex.europa.eu