Western Balkans Quarterly. Quarter 4, October-December 2015.
Date: 2016-06-07
Institutions: Frontex
Subjects: EU statistics, EU visa policy, European security, Western Balkans, border control, external border of the EU, illegal migration, migration control

Q2Q1Q3Q4Western Balkans  Quarterly  Quarter 4 • October–December 2015Frontex  official  publications  fall  into  four  main  categories:  risk  analysis,  training, 
operations and research, each marked with a distinct graphic identifier. Risk analysis 
publications  bear  a  triangular  symbol  formed  by  an  arrow  drawing  a  triangle,  with 
a dot at the  centre. Metaphorically, the arrow represents the cyclical nature of risk 
analysis processes and its orientation towards an appropriate operational response. 
The  triangle  is  a  symbol  of  ideal  proportions  and  knowledge,  reflecting  the  pursuit 
of factual exactness, truth and exhaustive analysis. The dot at the centre represents 
the  intelligence  factor  and  the  focal  point  where  information  from  diverse  sources 
converges  to  be  processed,  systematised  and  shared  as  analytical  products.  Thus, 
Frontex risk analysis is meant to be at the centre and to form a reliable basis for its 
operational activities.

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Warsaw, March 2016 
Risk Analysis Unit 
Frontex reference number: 4168/2016

OPOCE Catalogue number TT-AI-15-004-EN-N 
ISSN 2443-8367

© Frontex, 2016 
All rights reserved. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

DISCLAIMERS
This is a Frontex staff working document. This publication or its contents do not imply 
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Frontex concerning the legal 
status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation 
of its frontiers or boundaries. All charts included in this report are the sole property of 
Frontex and any unauthorised use is prohibited.

Throughout the report, references to Kosovo* are marked with an asterisk to indicate 
that  this  designation  is  without  prejudice  to  positions  on  status,  and  is  in  line  with 
UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The WB-RAN Quarterly has been prepared by the Frontex Risk Analysis Unit. During the 
course of developing this product, many colleagues at Frontex and from the WB-RAN 
contributed to it and their assistance is hereby acknowledged with gratitude.

FRAN · q1 2015Table of contents

Introduction  #3

I. 

 Situational overview  #5

Summary of WB-RAN indicators  #5

  Key findings  #5

Situation at the border  #6

  Border surveillance  #6

  Border checks  #8

Situation in the Western Balkans  #9

Illegal stay in Western Balkan countries   #9

II.  Featured risk analyses  #10

Large and sustained transiting flow through the Western Balkans continues despite winter  #10

III. Statistical annex  #13

1 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015wb-ran · q4 2015 
 
 
 
List of abbreviations used

BCP 
CIA 
EDF 
EDF-RAN 
EU  
FRAN  
Frontex 

FYR Macedonia 
ICJ 
ID 
n.a. 
Q/Qtr 
RAU 
UNSCR 
WB-RAN 

 border-crossing point
 Central Investigation Agency
European Union Document-Fraud
 European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network
 European Union
 Frontex Risk Analysis Network
 European  Agency  for  the  Management  of  Operational  Cooperation  at  the  External  Borders  of  the  Member 
States of the European Union
 former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
 International Court of Justice
 identification document
 not available
 quarter of the year
Frontex Risk Analysis Unit
 United Nations Security Council Resolution
 Western Balkans Risk Analysis Network

2 of 19

Introduction

Concept

The  Western  Balkans  Risk  Analysis  Net-
work  (WB-RAN)  performs  monthly  ex-
changes of statistical data and information 
on  the  most  recent  irregular  migration 
developments  affecting  the  region.  This 
information  is  compiled  at  Frontex  Risk 
Analysis Unit (RAU) level and analysed in 
cooperation with the regional partners on 
a quarterly and annual basis. The annual 
reports offer a more in-depth analysis of 
the developments and phenomena which 
impact  the  regional  and  common  bor-
ders, while the quarterly reports are meant 
to  provide  regular  updates  and  identify 
emerging trends in order to maintain sit-
uational awareness. Both types of reports 
are aimed at offering support for strategic 
and operational decision making.

Methodology

The Western Balkans Quarterly is focused 
on quarterly developments as reflected by 
the seven key indicators of irregular mi-
gration:  (1)  detections  of  illegal  border-
crossing between BCPs, (2) detections of 
illegal border-crossing at BCPs, (3) refus-
als of entry, (4) detections of illegal stay, 
(5) asylum applications, (6) detections of 
facilitators, and (7) detections of fraudu-
lent documents.1

1  Please note that the analysis of this indicator 

is now limited to WB-RAN countries 
only, given that EU Member States have 
transitioned to the European Union 
Document-Fraud (EDF) reporting scheme.

The  data  presented  in  the  overview  are 
derived from monthly statistics provided 
within  the  framework  of  the  WB-RAN 
and reference period statistics from com-
mon border sections of neighbouring EU 
Member States (Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, 
Hungary  and  Romania).  In  addition,  the 
Western Balkans Quarterly is drawing from 
FRAN  Quarterly  reports  and  also  from 
data analysed in the framework of other 
risk analysis networks (FRAN, EDF-RAN).

Structure

The first part offers a general situational 
overview broken down by main areas of 
work of border-control authorities and po-
lice activities related to irregular migration. 
The second part presents more in-depth 
featured risk analyses of particular phe-
nomena. As the current issue of the West-
ern Balkans Quarterly is the fourth following 
a  new  approach  adopted  for  risk  analy-
sis quarterlies, the structure of the report 
may still be subject to some readjustments.

Changes  in  data  scope  after  Croatia’s 
entry to the EU

Important changes in the collection and 
use of data for Western Balkans Quarterly 
were introduced upon Croatia’s joining the 
EU in July 2013. Firstly, data for Slovenia, 
which now has no external borders with 
non-EU  Western  Balkan  countries,  have 
not been included in the report since the 

third quarter of 2013. Slovenian historical 
data were also excluded from the tables 
in  order  to  make  the  comparison  with 
previous quarters analytically meaningful.

Secondly, as the Croatian-Hungarian and 
Croatian-Slovenian  border  sections  are 
now internal EU borders and so they are 
no longer covered by this report.

Thirdly, after joining the EU, Croatian data 
on illegal stay data are limited to detec-
tions at the border. More precisely, Cro-
atia’s illegal stay data only include cases 
detected on exit, while inland detections 
are  not  included.  The  analysis  of  the  il-
legal  stay  indicator  takes  this  fact  into 
consideration.

Changes  in  data  scope  after  Kosovo*’s 
entry to the WB-RAN

Starting from the first quarter of 2014 data 
from Kosovo* on key indicators of irreg-
ular migration have been included in the 
reporting, making it possible to get a more 
comprehensive  picture  of  the  irregular 
movements  in  the  region.  However,  as 
there are no historical data available for 
Kosovo*, the new data have some impact 
on the comparison of the examined period 
with previous quarters. When necessary 
for  analytical  purposes,  some  compari-
son can be made also excluding data from 
Kosovo.*

3 of 19

wb-ran · q4 2015Figure 1.  General map of the Western Balkans region

Slovenia

Kelebia

Röszke

Hungary

Croatia

Stara Gradiška

Bajakovo

Moravita

Romania

Belgrade
!

Serbia
7.2

Bosnia and
Herzegovina
3.9

!

Sarajevo

Montenegro
0.7

Karasovići

!
Podgorica

Pristina
!
Kosovo*
1.9

Kalotina

Bulgaria

Italy

Tirana

!

Albania
3.0

population in milions

main BCPs between WB-RAN countries and the EU

regional borders

administrative boundary line

common borders

Pan-European Transport Corridor X

other major roads

!
Skopje
FYR
Macedonia
2.0

Kristallopigi

Kakavia

Greece

Source: The CIA World Factbook (July 2014 estimates), ESRI geodata

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with 
UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

4 of 19

Featured Risk AnalysesI. Situational overview 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Summary of WB-RAN indicators

Table 1.  Overview of indicators as reported by WB-RAN members

Q4 2014 

Q3 2015 

Q4 2015 

% change on same 
quarter last year 

% change on previous 
quarter 

WB-RAN Indicator

Illegal border-crossing between BCPs

Illegal border-crossing at BCPs

Facilitators

Illegal stay

Refusals of entry

Asylum applications*

False travel-document users

37 193

545

486

3 486

10 209

38 645

248

614 947

1 336 010

3 492%

249

618

1 615

13 956

119 038

216

152

273

1 901

9 626

13 248

220

-72%

-44%

-45%

-6%

-66%

-11%

117%

-39%

-56%

18%

-31%

-89%

2%

*   Applications for asylum in EU Member States include all applications received in the territory of the countries, not limited to those made at the Western Balkan borders.

Source: WB-RAN data as of 4 February 2016

Key findings

n   Record numbers of non-regional migrants observed for 

the second consecutive quarter

n   Document checks filtering the flow reveal numerous cases 

of nationality swapping

n   Regional flow continues below usual seasonal trends

5 of 19

wb-ran · q4 2015same time, less than 1% of the illegal bor-
der-crossings  in  the  Western  Balkans  in 
Q4  2015  were  associated  with  regional 
migrants. 

‘unknown’2 (the number of such cases re-
ported in Q4 was more than twice that of 
Q3 2015 and accounted for roughly 40% of 
the non-regional total).

Situation at the border

Border surveillance

Illegal border-crossings

During the analysed period, over 1.3 mil-
lion  illegal  border-crossings  by  non-re-
gional  migrants  en  route  from  Turkey, 
Greece and Bulgaria were reported at the 
common and regional borders (Fig. 2). This 
represents an over twofold increase com-
pared to the previous quarter, which was 
already an all-time record. Unsurprisingly, 
the  sheer  volume  of  the  flow  (at  times 
reaching  more  than  12  000  persons  per 
day) continued to overwhelm border-con-
trol  authorities,  as  the  procedures  and 
legal  framework  currently  in  place  are 
not designed for such large flows. At the 

Syrians  and  Afghans  remained  the  two 
main  nationalities,  both  registering  high 
increases  compared  with  the  previous 
quarter  (approx.  twofold  and  threefold 
rise,  respectively).  Despite  this  high  in-
creases their respective shares of the to-
tal non-regional migration flow (32% and 
16%, respectively) remained similar to the 
previous period, mainly due to a very high 
number of migrants still being reported as 

Figure 2.  The non-regional flow continues to enter the Western Balkans region 

through the southern common borders and then exit in its northern part, mostly 

across the Croatian-Serbian border (after the Hungarian-Serbian green border was 

sealed in mid-September)

Detections of non-regional migrants crossing the border illegally between BCPs, by border section

Source: WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

Figure 3.  Detections of the regional migrants continue to concentrate at the 

southern common borders (Albanian circular migration to Greece), following the 

decrease at the Hungarian-Serbian border

Detections of regional migrants crossing the border illegally between BCPs, by border section

Source: WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

6 of 19

Iraqi  migrants  continued  to  be  the  third 
most  detected  nationality,  followed  by 
Iranians, Pakistanis and Moroccans. All of 
these  nationalities  registered  significant 
shifts from the previous quarter, ranging 
from a multiple increase for Iraqis, Irani-
ans and Moroccans to a 60% drop in the 
case of Pakistanis.

The surge in illegal border-crossings involv-
ing Iranians could be attributed to better 
flow-filtering capacities implemented by 
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedo-
nia and Serbia. The observed drop in de-
tected Pakistanis is somewhat surprising 
given a high rising trend of this nationality 
in previous months. However, as it largely 
coincides with the introduction of transit 
restrictions  limiting  the  flow  to  Syrians, 
Iraqis and Afghans, this reported drop may 
indicate  that  Pakistanis  manage  to  pass 
undetected by swapping their nationality.

Together, these top five nationalities ac-
counted for 59% of the non-regional mi-
gration flow between BCPs reported from 
all border sections, while the nationality 
of  almost  40%  of  persons  was  reported 
as ‘unknown’.

The  detections  of  Western  Balkan  re-
gional migrants remained broadly similar 
to  the  previous  quarter  and  only  repre-
sented  less  than  1%  of  the  overall  flow 
affecting  the  region.  The  vast  majority 
(77%) of Western Balkan country nation-
als  detected  for  illegal  border-crossing 
were reported at the Greek-Albanian bor-
der,  mainly  as  part  of  Albanian  circular 
migration.

2  The number of persons reported as unknown 
is analysed as part of the non-regional 
migration flow.

Featured Risk Analyses 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 HRV - SRB GRC - MKD MKD - SRB BGR - SRB HUN - SRB Others Q4 2014 Q4 2015 35%33%31%1%GRC-MKD MKD-SRB HRV-SRB BGR-SRB  0 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 20 000 GRC - ALB HUN - SRB GRC - MKD BIH - HRV HRV - SRB Other Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q42015 GRC-ALB HUN-SRB GRC-MKD Others 77%9%4%10%I. Situational overviewFigure 4.  In the southern part of the 

region, the border between the former 

Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and 

Greece remained the main entry point 

Austria

for the non-regional transiting flow, 

followed by the Bulgarian-Serbian 

border, both registering high increases. 

In the northern part, the Croatian-

Serbian border became the main 

point of exit from the region, after the 

Hungarian-Serbian section was sealed 

in mid-September. The regional flow 

was still mainly restricted to the Greek-

Albanian border

Changes in detections of illegal border-crossing 
between BCPs between Q4 2014 and Q4 2015 
at particular border sections and main directions  
of the flow

Hungary

Slovenia

Croatia

1 267
-96%

465 506
430 924%

119
28%

Bosnia &
Herzegovina

14
-33%

Serbia

#
%

Total number of detections
Change over Q4 2014

Mostly non-regional flow

Mostly regional flow

Non-regional flows in the
Eastern Mediterranean route

Direction of the arrow - general direction of the flow
Width of the arrow - indicative of the size of the flow

15
-21%

Romania

50
43%

9
-18%

44
2%

32
-42%

Montenegro

2
100%

Kosovo*

408 021
31 579%

20 108
3 510%

15
-66%

21
-5%

34
-24%

Albania

FYR
Macedonia

Bulgaria

2
 0%

Italy

43
-48%

2 960
-37%

437 741
87 624%

Greece

1 755
54%

1 624
247%

Turkey

480 008
3 568%

Facilitators

During  the  fourth  quarter  of  2015,  the 
number of facilitators was 273, represent-
ing an important 56% decrease compared 
with the previous three-month period and 
reaching the lowest number of such detec-
tions since Q3 2014. Considering the over 
twofold rise in the number of reported il-
legal  border-crossings  involving  non-re-
gional nationals, the very low number of 
facilitators indicates that migrants are in-
creasingly able to self-organise and/or rely 
on authorities when it comes to travel ar-
rangements for transiting the region.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with 
UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Source: WB-RAN and FRAN data as of 4 February 2016

As regards nationalities, 64% of all facilita-
tors detected in the analysed quarter were 
nationals of Western Balkan countries, 29% 
were citizens of the neighbouring EU Mem-
ber States and 6% were nationals of third 
countries from outside the region or ‘un-
known’. The highest share of detections was 

still reported by Serbia (43%), mostly Ser-
bian nationals, followed by Bulgaria (23%).

Importantly, another quarterly increase in 
detected facilitators was reported by Bul-
garia at its border with Serbia (11% more than 
in Q3), which is in line with the increasing 
number of migrants targeting this section.

Figure 5.  The number of facilitators remains low, possibly indicating the ability of migrants to self-organise or rely on 

transportation organised by authorities

Detections of facilitators (at BCPs, between BCPs and inland), by reporting country, top shares (left) and nationalities (right)

Source: WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

7 of 19

 0  50  100  150  200  250  300 SRBBGRGRCHUNOther Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015  0  50  100  150  200  250  300 SRB BGR ALB GRC UNK TUR RKS MKD BIH Other 43%23%20%6%8%SRB HUN GRC BGR Other wb-ran · q4 2015Border checks

Clandestine entries

In Q4 2015, a total of 38 non-regional mi-
grants were detected while attempting to 
illegally cross the border hiding in vehicles. 
This is the lowest quarterly number since 
data collection began, which indicates that 
migrants successfully crossed the borders 
relying  on  the  policies  facilitating  their 
transit. Additionally, only 114 nationals of 
Western Balkan countries were reported 
at BCPs, mostly Albanians reported at the 
Greek–Albanian border section.

Document fraud

During the fourth quarter, there were 220 
cases of false document use reported by 
the six Western Balkan countries at BCPs, 
a number 2% higher than that of the pre-
vious quarter.

users, accounting for 50% of all detections, 
followed by Kosovo* and Serbian citizens.

Passports,  ID  cards  and  border  stamps 
were still the most commonly used false 
documents. Unsurprisingly, the large ma-
jority  of  ID  cards  (33  out  of  37)  were  EU 
Member States’ documents, as they can 
be used to move freely within the Schen-
gen area and the EU.

As far as detections of false passports are 
concerned, the majority (93) were report-
edly issued by countries from the region. 
The majority of these documents were Al-
banian (66), mostly used by Albanian na-
tionals (66) who attempted to avoid entry 
bans imposed in connection to their mis-
use of visa liberalisation.

Refusals of entry

Serbia continued to rank first, with 29% of 
all regional detections, followed by the for-
mer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and 
Albania, each with 28% shares. As regards 
nationalities, in Q4 2015 Albanians contin-
ued to rank first amongst false document 

In the analysed period, the number of re-
fusals of entry decreased by 31% compared 
to  the  previous  quarter:  from  roughly 
14  000  to  9  600.  This  decrease  appears 
to  be  largely  corresponding  to  the  usual 
contraction of tourist mobility in the final 

quarter  of  the  year.  As  compared  to  the 
corresponding quarter of 2014, the num-
ber of issued refusals was similar. However, 
despite the overall decrease compared to 
Q3, the number of refusals issued to Turk-
ish nationals continued to rise, being 8% 
higher in Q4.

As  usual,  a  large  majority  of  refusals  of 
entry  were  issued  at  land  borders  (81%), 
while the remaining 19% were largely re-
ported at air borders.

Most of the refusals reported by the neigh-
bouring  EU  Member  States  were  issued 
to nationals of Western Balkan countries 
(96%). In turn, among those refused entry 
by the six countries of the region 31% were 
local residents, 30% were Turkish nation-
als and 20% were nationals of EU Mem-
ber States/Schengen Associated Countries.

The  overall  number  of  refusals  issued  to 
the non-regional nationalities associated 
with the migratory flow originating from 
Turkey/Greece  continued  to  represent  a 
very low share of the total.

Figure 6.  Turkish nationals continue to rank third among the top refused nationalities, indicating that an increasing number of 

these persons attempt reaching the EU by taking advantage of the high migration pressure

Persons refused entry by top border sections, top shares (left) and nationalities (right)

Source: WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

8 of 19

Featured Risk AnalysesHUN-SRBGRC-ALBHRV-BIHSRB AirHRV-SRBMKD AirHRV-MNEBIH-SRBMKD-GRCALB-MKDBIH-AIROther 0  500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 21%14%12%8%5%40%GRC-ALB HUN-SRB HRV-BIH HRV-SRB SRB Air Other Q42015  0  500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 ALB SRB TUR BIH MKD RKS BGR UNK HRV DEU Other I. Situational overviewSituation in the Western Balkans

Illegal stay in Western Balkan countries 

There were 786 detections of illegal stay, 
reported by the six Western Balkan coun-
tries  during  the  period  under  review,  a 
number 21% higher than that of the pre-
vious  quarter,  but  very  low  considering 
the overall size of the flow transiting the 
region in the recent period. The number 
was also significantly lower in relation to 
the corresponding quarter of 2014 (-65%). 
This development can be attributed to the 
accelerated transit of the flow, which was 
caused  by  migrants  trying  to  cross  the 
Western  Balkans  as  fast  as  possible  be-
fore  the  various  announced  restrictions 
or border closures are put into effect and/
or by the provision of transportation ser-
vices by the authorities.

During the analysed quarter, Serbian and 
Albanian  nationals  ranked  first  and  sec-
ond, respectively, among detected illegal 
stayers.  Citizens  of  Serbia  were  mainly 
reported by Bosnia and Herzegovina and 
Montenegro in almost equal shares, and 
to a lesser extent by the former Yugoslav 
Republic  of  Macedonia,  while  the  Alba-
nians  seem  to  have  preferred  staying  in 
the  former  Yugoslav  Republic  of  Mace-
donia. Nationals of Bosnia and Herzego-
vina continued to rank third in detections 
of illegal stayers during the fourth quar-
ter and were mainly reported by Monte-
negro and Serbia.

Syrians,  who  used  to  be  among  the  top 
three nationalities of illegal stayers in pre-
vious  quarters,  practically  disappeared 
during the analysed period when only six 
such nationals were reported.

As  in  the  previous  quarter,  very  few  of 
those who have transited Turkey/Greece 
or Bulgaria before reaching the Western 
Balkans region were detected while ille-
gally  staying  in  the  six  Western  Balkan 
countries.

Figure 7.  Only a small share of non-regional nationalities reported for illegal border-crossing are detected as illegal stayers 
(indicating that they perceive the Western Balkans as a transit area)

Illegal stayers, by reporting Western Balkan country, top shares (left) and nationality (right) 

 Source: WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

9 of 19

 0  200  400  600  800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 SRB ALB BIH TUR ROU RUS LBY BGR MAR HRV Other  0  200  400  600  800 1 000 1 200 1 400 SRB MKD MNE BIH ALB RKS* Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q42015 SRB MNE MKD BIH Other 30%23%20%14%13%wb-ran · q4 2015Large and sustained transiting flow 
through the Western Balkans continues 
despite winter

The  number  of  detected  illegal  border-
crossings associated with the non-regional 
transiting flow in the fourth quarter set a 
new record, exceeding even the unprec-
edented  situation  in  the  third  quarter. 
More exactly, the quarterly total of over 
1 330 000 detected illegal border-crossings 
of non-regional migrants was more than 
double the overall number of such detec-
tions registered during the third quarter 
and over 63% higher than the total num-
ber reported since data collection began 
(i.e. 818 000 illegal border-crossings be-
tween  BCPs  reported  between  January 
2009 and September 2015).

The direct link between the non-regional 
migration flow transiting the Western Bal-
kans and the one affecting Greek borders, 
especially in the Eastern Aegean Sea, was 
also observed in the last three months of 
2015.  Specifically,  the  pressure  from  the 
Aegean Islands continued to manifest it-
self on the Western Balkan route with an 
even shorter lag, as the access to trans-
portation shortened the time necessary for 
migrants to organise their onwards move-
ments (roughly 48 hours after arriving in 
the Aegean they would head towards the 
common border between Greece and the 
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) 
(see Fig. 8).

As  border  prevention  measures  and  the 
policies of facilitated transit did not change 
much  compared  to  the  previous  period, 
during  Q4  2015  the  non-regional  migra-
tion  flow  continued  to  enter  the  West-
ern Balkans across the southern common 
borders with Greece and Bulgaria before 
heading north and leaving the region es-
pecially across the Croatian-Serbian bor-
der section.

10 of 19

Figure 8.  The southern borders continue 

to be the main points of entry to the 

region. The Croatian-Serbian border 

became the main exit point in Q4 after 

the Hungarian-Serbian green border was 

sealed off in mid-September

Shares of the non-regional flow detected between 
BCPs in Q3 and Q4 2015, by top border sections

i

a
n
o
d
e
c
a
M
R
Y
F
f
o
e
c
i
l

o
P
r
e
d
r
o
B
©

3%

15%

16%

Q3
2015 

43%

MKD-GRC 

HUN-SRB 

MKD-SRB 

HRV-SRB 

BGR-SRB 

31%

23%

1%

Q4
2015

33%

35%

HRV-SRB 

MKD-GRC 

MKD-SRB 

BGR-SRB 

Others 

Source: FRAN and WB-RAN data as of 29 January 2016

It was decided that starting from 19 No-
vember the passage would be restricted 
for migrants who did not originate from 
conflict areas (who are not Syrian, Iraqi or 
Afghan). Although this decision was taken 
in a coordinated manner by most of the 
countries  along  the  main  route  (Slove-
nia, Croatia, Serbia, the former Yugoslav 
Republic of Macedonia) the possibility of 
verifying  the  nationality  declared  when 
crossing the border remained severely lim-
ited. Most of the transited countries having 
difficulties  to  obtain  enough  interpret-
ers or screeners  mainly rely on the doc-
uments/statements provided by migrants 

x
e
t
n
o
r
F
©

Figure 9.  Border police of Greece 

and the former Yugoslav Republic of 

Macedonia ensuring orderly transit of 

the flow across the common border in 

Idomeni-Gevgelija

attest their nationality. In many cases the 
documents  are  the  registration  certifi-
cates with no security features issued on 
the Greek islands and in many cases they 
can be obtained under false pretences or 
easily altered (Fig. 10).

Figure 10.  Greek registration documents 

bear no security features and can be 
easily copied or counterfeited

II. Featured risk analyses 
 
 
 
 
 
When migrants got word of new restric-
tion measures, many of them used differ-
ent modi operandi trying to blend in with the 
flow of nationals allowed transit.

As the authorities generally have compe-
tent document experts who can be used 
to filter the flow, a large number of forged 
Greek registration papers were detected 
on  migrants  making  false  declaration  of 
their  nationality  (i.e.  over  8  000  discov-
ered by the former Yugoslav Republic of 
Macedonia between December 2015 and 
January 2016). This better capacity to de-
tect  forgeries  could  also  explain  the  ob-
served rise in reported Iranians, especially 
that they could easily alter their Greek reg-
istration  papers  (by  changing  one  letter 
only: from ‘Iran’ to ‘Iraq’) in order to pass 
as Iraqis and be allowed transit.

On the other hand, nationality swapping 
can consist in a simple act of making a false 
statement or in the use of original docu-
ments obtained under false pretences (i.e. 
false declaration of nationality at first ar-
rival in Greece). This modus operandi does 
not include the use of forged documents 
and is generally more difficult to uncover. 
Therefore, it could lead to many persons 

managing to pass undetected among the 
large  number  of  migrants  still  allowed 
transit  (nationals  of  Syria,  Iraq  and  Af-
ghanistan). This may explain the sudden 
drop in the flow of Pakistani migrants re-
ported during the analysed period (-59% 
compared  to  Q3),  which  stands  in  stark 
contrast with the previously observed ris-
ing trend.

Another remarkable change was observed 
in terms of detections of Moroccan nation-
als, who became the sixth most reported 
migrants  in  the  Western  Balkans  during 
Q4  after  registering  a  roughly  fortyfold 
rise  compared  with  the  previous  three-
month period. As mentioned above, this 
could be partly explained by the author-
ities’ better filtering the flow and reveal-
ing a larger share of nationality swapping. 
On the other hand, this increase can also 
have  to  do  with  an  observed  deflection 
of the migration pressure from Morocco 
away from the Spanish coast (as Moroccan 
migrants are quickly readmitted based on 
a well-functioning bi-lateral agreement) 
towards  the  Central  and  especially  the 
Eastern Mediterranean routes, where the 
liberal visa policy of Turkey and the per-

ceived  easy  transit  through  the  Balkans 
act as pull factors.

In the northern part of the region, the Cro-
atian-Serbian border section became the 
main exit point of the transiting flow, after 
the Hungarian-Serbian green border was 
sealed off in mid-September. Similarly to 
the previous quarter, a decisive majority of 
the flow (>99%) across the Croatian-Ser-
bian border was registered as ‘unknown 
nationality’, indicating that the high num-
bers of migrants severely overstretch the 
screening  and  registration  capacities  of 
the authorities.

At regional level, the share of illegal bor-
der-crossings associated with migrants of 
‘unknown nationality’ remained similar to 
the previous quarter, accounting for 40% 
of the total non-regional flow. However, 
an improvement of registration capacities 
could be observed at the border between 
Greece and the former Yugoslav Repub-
lic of Macedonia, where despite a massive 
increase in the flow (68% higher than Q3) 
only 15% of the detections were reported 
as  involving  ‘unknown’  nationals,  com-
pared with 60% in Q3.

11 of 19

wb-ran · q4 2015III. Statistical annex

LEGEND

Symbols and abbreviations:  n.a.  not applicable 

: 

  data not available

Source:   WB-RAN and FRAN data as of 4 February 2016, 

unless otherwise indicated

Note:  

 ‘Member States’ in the tables refer to FRAN Member 
States, including both 28 EU Member States 
and three Schengen Associated Countries

12 of 19

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1.  Illegal border-crossing between BCPs

Detections reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by purpose of illegal border-crossing, top five border sections and top ten nationalities

Q3

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

Purpose of Illegal Border–Crossing

80

20

0.1

0

35

33

31

1.5

0.2

0.1

40

32

16

8.4

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

100

46 797

476 179

1074 117

11 417

126

 88

260 671

306 572

296 117

138 596

 84

1 169

 53

-96

-21

Irregular migration

Other

Not specified

Smuggling

Top Five Sections

Croatia – Serbia

FYR Macedonia – Greece

FYR Macedonia – Serbia

Bulgaria – Serbia

Albania – Greece

Others

Top Ten Nationalities

Not specified

Syria

Afghanistan

Iraq

Iran

Pakistan

Morocco

Albania

Palestine

Somalia

Others

Total

6 006

 91

8 751

 72

 280

 675

1 082

 147

2 620

9 326

 85

27 715

 67

 108

 499

1 288

 557

4 666

15 739

 69

32 802

 143

 174

 591

5 381

1 886

2 890

 92

34 439

 328

 173

6 547

21 881

7 828

3 959

91 698

259 986

98 209

18 673

2 506

10 116

30 075

37 831

41 268

143 875

 36

3 912

2 605

 114

 60

 107

 10

2 995

 370

 101

4 610

 138

6 476

5 445

 383

 113

 241

 8

4 018

 515

 66

 137

8 446

7 986

1 618

 236

 897

 27

2 760

 351

1 113

19 790

25 182

 214

33 182

24 293

6 258

 643

3 891

 133

3 749

 757

1 511

7 025

247 991

236 445

67 428

21 198

2 332

19 757

 125

2 972

1 506

1 634

13 559

465 506

437 741

408 021

20 108

2 960

1 674

530 893

431 847

214 699

112 462

16 985

8 004

5 034

3 301

2 203

2 004

8 578

430 924

87 624

31 579

3 510

-37

-94

384 605

6 568

3 843

29 263

14 931

3 221

62 825

-18

328

2 936

-57

14 920

37 193

48 753

81 656

614 947

1 336 010

3 492

-99

-37

408

68

315

7.7

18

-99

114

83

218

431

628

-59

3 927

11

46

23

-37

117

13 of 19

wb-ran · q4 2015Table 2.  Illegal border-crossing at BCPs

Detections reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by type of entry, purpose of illegal border-crossing, top five border sections and top ten nationalities

Type of Entry

Clandestine

Others

Not specified

Q3

 477

 113

 0

Purpose of Illegal Border-Crossing

Irregular migration

Not specified

Other

Smuggling

Top Five Sections

Albania – Greece

Bulgaria – Serbia

Croatia – Serbia

FYR Macedonia – Albania

Kosovo* – Albania

Others

Top Ten Nationalities

Albania

Kosovo*

Afghanistan

Iraq

Syria

Not specified

FYR Macedonia

Serbia

Turkey

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Others

Total

 181

 392

 14

 3

 0

 9

 225

 0

 1

 355

 33

 13

 274

 7

 107

 0

 3

 14

 6

 0

 133

 590

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

 455

 90

 0

 378

 154

 13

 0

 7

 34

 113

 0

 43

 348

 42

 4

 293

 6

 110

 41

 5

 7

 19

 0

 18

 545

 315

 61

 18

 332

 42

 19

 1

 2

 19

 11

 0

 6

 356

 29

 7

 197

 9

 86

 20

 1

 8

 0

 0

 37

 394

 178

 133

 36

 268

 31

 12

 36

 0

 114

 19

 37

 0

 177

 18

 1

 142

 34

 115

 0

 2

 2

 0

 0

 33

 347

 78

 170

 1

 212

 25

 12

 2

 0

 147

 6

 0

 5

 91

 9

 7

 72

 16

 126

 0

 1

 10

 1

 1

 6

 101

 47

 4

 117

 14

 9

 2

 81

 30

 14

 7

 5

 15

 91

 18

 14

 14

 4

 4

 2

 2

 1

 1

 1

 249

 152

-78

-48

n.a.

-69

-91

-31

n.a.

1 057

-12

-88

n.a.

-88

-96

117

350

-95

133

-96

-90

-60

-71

-95

n.a.

-94

-72

29

-72

300

-45

-44

-25

0

n.a.

-80

133

n.a.

0

-84

911

157

-81

-13

-97

n.a.

100

-80

0

0

-83

-39

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

53

20

9.2

4.6

3.3

9.9

60

12

9.2

9.2

2.6

2.6

1.3

1.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence

14 of 19
14 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015Table 3.  Facilitators

Detections reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by place of detection and top ten nationalities

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

Place of Detection

Land

Inland

Air

Sea

Top Ten Nationalities

Serbia

Bulgaria

Albania

Greece

Not specified

Turkey

Kosovo*

FYR Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Syria

Others

Total

Q3

 242

 44

 0

 6

 92

 20

 61

 22

 18

 2

 6

 14

 1

 15

 41

2014

Q4

 418

 65

 1

 2

 448

 66

 0

 3

 551

 21

 0

 0

 254

 285

 338

 22

 60

 28

 18

 9

 2

 40

 15

 0

 38

 30

 49

 21

 27

 5

 13

 36

 18

 6

 27

 32

 48

 31

 13

 4

 6

 49

 6

 6

 39

 292

 486

 517

 572

 542

 76

 0

 0

 348

 51

 38

 28

 22

 0

 4

 6

 4

 8

 109

 618

 240

 25

 6

 2

 119

 61

 44

 18

 9

 5

 5

 4

 3

 1

 4

 273

-43

-62

500

0

-53

177

-27

-36

-50

-44

150

-90

-80

n.a.

-89

-44

-56

-67

n.a.

n.a.

-66

20

16

-36

-59

n.a.

25

-33

-25

-88

-96

-56

88

9.2

2.2

0.7

44

22

16

6.6

3.3

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.1

0.4

1.5

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence

Table 4.  Illegal stay

Detections reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by place of detection and top ten nationalities

Place of Detection

Land

Inland

Not specified

Top Ten Nationalities

Serbia

Albania

FYR Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Kosovo*

Syria

Montenegro

Turkey

Morocco

Romania

Others

Total

Q3

1 611

 926

 114

 864

 215

 187

 50

 43

 415

 30

 111

 2

 34

 700

2 651

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

1 232

2 096

 158

 684

 245

 130

 73

 41

1 439

 16

 90

 3

 15

 750

3 486

 925

1 185

 99

 700

 167

 74

 62

 47

 391

 35

 74

 7

 20

1 595

 778

 110

 791

 149

 100

 56

 28

 547

 25

 63

 6

 27

 966

 562

 87

 599

 127

 107

 74

 37

 125

 36

 92

 6

 17

1 115

 645

 141

 842

 188

 147

 79

 51

 46

 44

 42

 37

 33

 632

2 209

 691

2 483

 395

1 615

 392

1 901

-9.5

-69

-11

23

-23

13

8.2

24

-97

175

-53

1133

120

-48

-45

15

15

62

41

48

37

6.8

38

-63

22

-54

517

94

-0.8

18

59

34

7.4

44

9.9

7.7

4.2

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.9

1.7

21

100

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence

15 of 19
15 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015wb-ran · q4 2015Table 5.  Refusals of entry

Refusals reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by place of detection and top ten nationalities

Place of Detection

Land

Air

Sea

Top Ten Nationalities

Albania

Serbia

Turkey

Bosnia and Herzegovina

FYR Macedonia

Kosovo*

Bulgaria

Not specified

Croatia

Germany

Others

Total

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

Q3

13 269

 741

 19

2 541

2 575

 812

1 687

 568

 886

 298

 470

 133

 578

9 354

 853

 2

2 770

2 426

 693

1 359

 506

 289

 239

 121

 130

 82

7 684

 704

 3

2 206

1 925

 554

1 257

 433

 252

 223

 80

 227

 79

1 155

8 391

9 046

 757

 24

2 763

1 715

 578

1 379

 463

 291

 265

 157

 168

 197

1 851

9 827

12 581

1 335

 40

2 736

1 852

1 332

1 391

 578

 708

 372

 587

 260

 567

3 573

13 956

7 835

1 775

 16

2 980

1 621

1 434

1 042

 331

 271

 231

 158

 119

 119

1 320

9 626

-16

108

700

7.6

-33

107

-23

-35

-6.2

-3.3

31

-8.5

45

-17

-38

33

-60

8.9

-12

7.7

-25

-43

-62

-38

-73

-54

-79

-63

81

18

0.2

31

17

15

11

3.4

2.8

2.4

1.6

1.2

1.2

14

-5.7

-31

100

3 481

1 594

14 029

10 209

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence

16 of 19
16 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015Table 6.  Applications for asylum

Applications for international protection reported by Western Balkan and neighbouring countries, by top ten nationalities

Top Ten Nationalities

Iraq

Afghanistan

Syria

Pakistan

Albania

Bangladesh

Egypt

Georgia

Turkey

Iran

Others

Total

Q3

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent 
of total

 355

3 447

4 899

 537

 97

 263

 65

 69

 30

 203

5 503

 845

6 889

7 952

 753

 137

 371

 80

 64

 92

 518

20 944

1 423

5 772

5 561

1 180

 223

 528

 50

 56

 113

 318

27 616

3 856

15 262

13 018

3 329

 217

 918

 89

 83

 83

 563

6 015

7 929

30 111

56 443

12 418

 382

3 209

 115

 127

 110

1 288

6 906

4 150

3 581

2 160

 826

 499

 267

 194

 170

 123

 121

1 157

15 468

38 645

42 840

43 433

119 038

13 248

391

-48

-73

9.7

264

-28

143

166

34

-77

-94

-66

-48

-88

-96

-93

31

-92

69

34

12

-91

-83

31

27

16

6.2

3.8

2

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

8.7

-89

100

17 of 19
17 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015wb-ran · q4 2015Table 7.  Document fraud

Detections reported by Western Balkan countries, by border type, document type, fraud type, top ten nationalities and top countries of issuance of documents

Q3

2014

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015

Q3

2015 Q4

% change on

Q4

year ago

previous Qtr

per cent of 
total

Border Type

Land
Air
Sea
Not specified

Document Type

Passports
ID cards
Stamps
Visas
Residence permits
Unknown

Fraud Type

False-counterfeit
Auth-impostor
False-mutilated
False-page substitution
Genuine/Authentic
Others

Top Ten Nationalities

Albania
Kosovo*
Serbia
Turkey
Syria
Turkmenistan
Bulgaria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Mali
FYR Macedonia
Others

 110
 50
 51
 2

 131
 36
 8
 5
 20
 13

 57
 73
 2
 3
 0
 78

 57
 64
 15
 8
 28
 0
 0
 3
 0
 3
 35

 171
 59
 18
 0

 117
 87
 15
 7
 12
 10

 80
 64
 6
 7
 0
 91

 81
 32
 23
 14
 47
 0
 0
 0
 1
 7
 43

Top Ten Countries of Issuance of Documents

Albania
Greece
Italy
Serbia
Turkey
FYR Macedonia
Kosovo*
Bulgaria
Russian Federation
Slovenia
Others

Total

 50
 23
 8
 16
 3
 14
 2
 15

 4
 78

 55
 22
 29
 25
 4
 7
 2
 14

 3
 87

 161
 76
 23
 0

 161
 54
 13
 13
 17
 2

 64
 80
 10
 8
 4
 94

 102
 43
 20
 10
 27
 0
 2
 5
 0
 3
 48

 72
 27
 26
 30
 6
 8
 5
 12

 5
 69

 139
 88
 8
 0

 119
 49
 49
 5
 13
 0

 121
 40
 9
 13
 0
 52

 85
 34
 34
 21
 25
 0
 0
 7
 0
 4
 25

 56
 27
 18
 42
 13
 4
 7
 10
 2
 4
 52

 136
 60
 15
 5

 133
 43
 17
 7
 11
 5

 83
 46
 14
 6
 1
 66

 74
 41
 30
 11
 18
 0
 1
 1
 0
 1
 39

 63
 15
 11
 22
 6
 4
 3
 10
 6
 6
 70

 120
 83
 17
 0

 132
 37
 28
 11
 10
 2

 109
 41
 21
 17
 7
 25

 109
 26
 19
 18
 5
 5
 4
 3
 3
 3
 25

 75
 19
 19
 16
 13
 9
 8
 8
 6
 6
 41

-30
41
-5.6
n.a.

13
-57
87
57
-17
-80

36
-36
250
143
n.a.
-73

35
-19
-17
29
-89
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
200
-57
-42

36
-14
-34
-36
225
29
300
-43
n.a.
100
-53

-11

-12
38
13
n.a.

-0.8
-14
65
57
-9.1
-60

31
-11
50
183
600
-62

47
-37
-37
64
-72
n.a.
300
200
n.a.
200
-36

19
27
73
-27
117
125
167
-20
0
0
-41

1.9

55
38
7.7

60
17
13
5
4.5
0.9

50
19
9.5
7.7
3.2
11

50
12
8.6
8.2
2.3
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
11

34
8.6
8.6
7.3
5.9
4.1
3.6
3.6
2.7
2.7
19

100

 213

 248

 260

 235

 216

 220

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence

18 of 19
18 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015Explanatory note

Detections reported for EU Member States 
for  indicators  Illegal  border-crossing  be-
tween  BCPs,  Illegal  border-crossing  at 
BCPs,  Refusals  of  entry  and  Document 
fraud are detections at the common land 
borders on entry only. For Facilitators, de-
tections at the common land borders on 
entry and exit are included.

For Illegal stay, detections at the common 
land borders on exit only are included. For 
Asylum, all applications (land, sea, air and 
inland) are included.

For Western Balkan countries, all indica-
tors – save for Refusals of entry – include 
detections (applications) on exit and entry 
at the land, sea and air borders.

Each section in the table (Reporting coun-
try,  Border  type,  Place  of  detection,  Top 
five border section and Top ten national-
ities)  refers  to  total  detections  reported 
by WB-RAN countries and to neighbour-
ing land border detections reported by EU 
Member States.

19 of 19
19 of 19

FRAN · q1 2015wb-ran · q4 2015For Public Release

Risk Analysis Unit

Reference number: 4168/2016

TT-AI-15-004-EN-N 
ISSN 2443-8367

Warsaw, March 2016

European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European UnionPlac Europejski 6 00-844 Warsaw, PolandT +48 22 205 95 00 F +48 22 205 95 01frontex@frontex.europa.eu www.frontex.europa.eu