COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL State of play and the possible ways forward as regards the situation of non-reciprocity with certain third countries in the area of visa policy
Date: 2016-04-12
Institutions: Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: Brunei, Canada, EU relations, EU visa policy, Japan, United States, external border of the EU, foreign national, third country

EN 

   EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 12.4.2016  COM(2016) 221 final   COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL State of play and the possible ways forward as regards the situation of non-reciprocity with certain third countries in the area of visa policy  
 
 
I. 

INTRODUCTION 

Visa waiver reciprocity is a principle of the EU's common visa policy and an objective which 
the  Union  should  pursue  in  a  proactive  manner  in  its  relations  with  third  countries,  thus 
contributing  to  improving  the  credibility  and  consistency  of  the  Union's  external  relations. 
Such a principle means that the EU, when deciding on lifting the visa requirement for citizens 
of a third country, takes into consideration whether that third country reciprocally grants visa 
waiver to nationals  of  all Member States. In this  respect, it should  be noted that the United 
Kingdom and Ireland do not take part in the development of the common visa policy1. Since 
2001,  different  mechanisms  have  been  established  under  EC/EU  law  with  measures  to  be 
taken in non-reciprocity cases. With the active support of the Commission, the vast majority 
of the non-reciprocity cases notified with eight third countries, have been solved.  
The latest report2 assessing the situation of non-reciprocity with certain third countries in the 
area of visa policy adopted by the Commission last November identified four countries with 
which  non-reciprocity  still  persisted:  Brunei  in  relation  to  Croatia;  Canada  in  relation  to 
Bulgaria and Romania; Japan in relation to Romania; and the United States of America (US) 
in  relation  to  Bulgaria,  Croatia,  Cyprus,  Poland  and  Romania.  This  Communication  takes 
stock of developments since November 2015. 

If the third country concerned has not lifted the visa requirement by 12 April 2016, Council 
Regulation (EC) No 539/2001 of 15 March 2001 as amended by the European Parliament and 
Council  by  Regulation  (EU)  No  1289/2013  of  11  December  20133  (hereinafter,  the 
Regulation)  obliges  the  Commission  to  adopt  a  delegated  act  suspending  for  12  months  the 
visa  waiver  for  nationals  of  that  third  country.  The  Regulation  also  requires  that  the 
Commission takes into account the consequences of the suspension of the visa waiver for the 
external relations of the EU and its Member States. In the same vein, 21 Member States at the 
time of the adoption of the Regulation stated that "the relevant Union institutions are obliged, 
prior  to  any  proposal  or  decision,  to  extensively  scrutinise  and  take  into  account  potential 
adverse political consequences that might arise from such proposals or decisions".  

In order to ensure the full involvement of the European Parliament and of the Council in the 
application of the reciprocity mechanism and given the particularly sensitive political nature 
of  the  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver,  this  Communication  assesses  the  consequences  and 
impacts of the suspension of the visa waiver for nationals of the third countries concerned.  

II. 

THE CURRENT RECIPROCITY MECHANISM ESTABLISHED BY THE REGULATION 

The reciprocity mechanism, agreed as a compromise by the legislators in 2013, is composed 
of various steps, commencing with the notification by a Member State in the event that a visa-

1 Accordingly in this Communication “Member States”, unless specified otherwise, are to be understood as all 
EU Member States - with the exception of the United Kingdom and Ireland - as well as the Schengen associated 
countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland). 
2 C(2015) 7455 final of 5.11.2015. 
3 Regulation (EU) No 1289/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 amending 
Council Regulation (EC) No 539/2001 of 15 March 2001 listing the third countries whose nationals must be in 
possession  of  visas  when  crossing  the  external  borders  and  those  whose  nationals  are  exempt  from  that 
requirement, OJ L 347 of 11.12.2013, p. 74 

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free third country maintains or introduces a visa requirement for the citizens of one or more 
Member States and the publication thereof in the Official Journal4.  
According  to  the  Regulation5,  immediately  following  the  date  of  the  publication  in  the 
Official Journal, the Commission is to take steps with the authorities of the third country in 
question,  in  particular  in  the  political,  economic  and  commercial  fields,  in  order  to  restore 
visa-free  travel  for  the  nationals  of  the  Member  State  concerned.  Contacts  were  undertaken 
with all third countries notified by Member States.  

If the third country concerned has not lifted the visa requirement, the Commission shall, at the 
latest  six  months  from  the  date  of  publication  of  Member  States'  notifications  and  then  at 
regular intervals of up to six months, either adopt an implementing act, under which the visa 
waiver  for  certain  categories  of  citizens  of  the  third  country  concerned  is  temporarily 
suspended  for  up  to  six  months,  or  submit  a  report  assessing  the  situation  and  stating  the 
reasons why it had decided not to suspend the visa waiver. 

The  Commission  initiated  a  framework  of  regular  “tripartite  meetings”  between  the  third 
country,  the  Member  State(s)  concerned  and  the  Commission.  Taking  into  account  the 
engagement  of  the  Member  States  and  third  countries  in  these  meetings,  the  likely  adverse 
consequences  of  suspending  the  visa  waiver  and  the  fact  that  none  of  the  Member  States 
concerned requested the Commission to adopt suspension measures, the Commission did not 
propose such measures and adopted three reports6 in the first phase of the mechanism.  
According  to  the  next  stage  of  the  procedure7,  if  the  third  country  has  not  lifted  the  visa 
requirement within 24 months of the date of publication of the notifications, the Regulation 
requires the Commission to adopt a delegated act temporarily suspending for 12 months the 
visa waiver for nationals of that third country.  

The Regulation defines in detail the parameters of the suspension. It is for 12 months and for 
all citizens of the third country concerned8. The suspension must take effect within 90 days of 
the entry into force of the delegated act.  

The  delegated  act  (i.e.  the  suspension  of  the  visa  exemption)  only  enters  into  force  if  no 
objection  has  been  expressed  by  either  the  European  Parliament  or  the  Council  within  a 
period of four months of notification or if, before the expiry of that period, both institutions 
informed the Commission that they will not object. This four month period will be extended 
by two months if requested by the legislator. In other words, the decision would ultimately be 
taken by the European Parliament and/or the Council.  
The Regulation9 provides that the European Parliament or the Council may revoke at any time 
the  delegation  of  power  to  the  Commission.  This  requires  a  decision  taken  by  absolute 
majority  in  the  European  Parliament  and/or  a  decision  taken  by  qualified  majority  in  the 
Council. 

4 The Commission published the notifications of non-reciprocity on 12 April 2014 (OJ C 111, 12.4.2014, p.1). 
Five Member States (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania) notified non-reciprocity cases in relation 
to five countries: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Japan, and the United States of America. 
5 Article 1(4)(b). 
6 C(2014) 7218 final of 10.10.2014, C(2015) 2575 final of 22.4.2015 and C(2015) 7455 final of 5.11.2015. 
7 Governed by Article 1(4)(f) of the Regulation. 
8 Article 4 of the Regulation, which allows Member States to exempt from the visa requirement some categories 
of persons such as holders of diplomatic passports, civilian air and sea crew would still apply. 
9 Article 4b(3). 

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DEVELOPMENTS  SINCE  THE  ADOPTION  OF  THE  THIRD  REPORT  ASSESSING  THE 

III. 
SITUATION OF NON-RECIPROCITY WITH CERTAIN THIRD COUNTRIES 

a.  Japan (notified by Romania) 

Japan officially informed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania on 17 December 2015 
that the visa-free status for Romanian citizens, including holders of temporary passports, was 
extended  until  31  December  2018.  The  Commission  thus  notes  that,  until  31  December 
2018, full visa waiver is ensured with Japan.  

b.  Brunei (notified by Croatia) 

The third report indicated that Brunei notified the Commission that Croatian nationals, as well 
as  nationals  from  Liechtenstein,  had  been  granted  visa  waiver  for  up  to  90  days.  However, 
these decisions had not been implemented yet at the time of the adoption of the report. Since 
then,  the  Commission  and  the  European  External  Action  Service  requested  several  times  to 
Brunei  to  put  in  place  the  visa  waiver,  update  their  respective  websites  and  inform  IATA 
about the change. The Commission received positive signals in these contacts. Most recently, 
on 6 April 2016 the Mission of Brunei to the EU informed the Commission in writing that the 
visa waiver will be put in practice in few weeks' time.  

c.  Canada (notified by Bulgaria and Romania) 

A fourth tripartite meeting took place on 6 April 2016. At the meeting, Canada explained that 
the Electronic Travel Authorisation (eTA) became mandatory for all visa-free travellers on 15 
March 2016. However, in order to facilitate a smooth transition, a "leniency" period, until 29 
September 2016, has been introduced.  

Canada re-confirmed its commitment to extend the eTA to Bulgarian and Romanian nationals 
who  have  travelled  on  a  visa  to  Canada  in  the  previous  ten  years  or  who  hold  a  valid  non-
immigrant US visa, once the eTA is stable and fully functioning. There is still no date set for 
such expansion yet.  

At the meeting Canada also provided an update regarding the immigration violation rate and 
the  visa  refusal  rate,  which  are  two  key  indicators  for  visa  waiver  set  out  in  Canada's  visa 
policy framework. For both Bulgaria and Romania, the visa refusal rate in particular remains 
well above the required 4% threshold over the last 3 years (the 2013-2015 average is around 
16% for both countries). Regarding the immigration violation rate – for which the threshold is 
3%  averaged  over  3  years  –  both  Member  States  perform  comparatively  better  (2013-15): 
Bulgaria: 4,3%; Romania: 2,5%. In addition, Canada announced that in order to collect more 
information  regarding  certain  areas  (such  as  issuing  of  travel  documents  and  breeder 
documents;  integration  of  the  Roma;  border  management  and  fight  against  corruption), 
Canada  proposed  to  carry  out  technical/expert  visits  in  the coming  months  to  both  Member 
States. While this should not to be considered as a formal "visa review", such expert missions 
would  help  in  building  confidence  and  enable  Canadian  experts  to  identify  specific  risks 
associated with a visa waiver and options to mitigate those risks. 

Full visa waiver reciprocity with Canada has thus not been achieved for Bulgarian and 
Romanian nationals. The Commission will continue to monitor developments, notably as 
regards  Canada  implementing  as  soon  as  possible  the  envisaged  eTA  expansion  to 
certain  categories  of  travellers,  and  as  a  further  step,  broadening  its  scope  to  some 
categories of “low risk”, first time travellers. 

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d.  United States (notified by Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania) 

A fourth tripartite meeting with the US took place on 23 February 2016. The US emphasised 
its commitment to the expansion of the US Visa Waiver Program once Member States meet 
all requirements. Efforts taken by the Member States were recognised by the US. 

At the meeting, the US presented visa  refusal  statistics for 2015:  Bulgaria:  17,26%; Croatia 
5,29%; Cyprus: 3,53%; Poland: 6,37%; Romania:  11,16%. None of  the five Member States 
met the 3% threshold required by the US Immigration and Nationality Act. 
With  regard  to  the  agreements  requested  by  the  US  in  the  area  of  law  enforcement10,  all 
Member  States  are  in  a  very  advanced  stage;  almost  all  agreements  have  been  signed.  The 
reporting of lost/stolen passports to Interpol was not considered to be an obstacle. However, 
the  US  only  starts  on  the  spot  visits  to  Visa  Waiver  Program  candidate  countries  –  a 
prerequisite before the admission to the Visa Waiver Program – when all requirements set out 
in the Immigration and Nationality Act have been considered to be met by the Department of 
State and the Department of Homeland Security.  

The  US  Congress  amended  the  Visa  Waiver  Program  legislation  on  18  December  2015. 
According  to  the  new  provisions,  as  a  general  rule,  as  from  21  January  201611  travellers  of 
Visa  Waiver  Program  countries  who  hold  the  nationality  of  Iraq,  Iran,  Syria  or  Sudan  (i.e. 
dual citizens) or who have been present in these countries or in Libya, Somalia or Yemen at 
any time on or after 1 March 2011, are required to apply for a visa and can no longer travel 
with  an  electronic  authorisation  (ESTA)  under  the  Visa  Waiver  Program.  This  law  has  a 
potential  impact  on  all  Member  States  admitted  to  the  Visa  Waiver  Program.  None  of  the 
Member  States  admitted  to  the  Visa  Waiver  Program  notified  these  changes  to  the  Visa 
Waiver Program to the Commission within 30 days of its implementation in accordance with 
Article  1(4)(a)  of  the  Regulation.  The  new  law  also  brought  changes  in  relation  to  travel 
documents:  as  from  1  April  2016,  only  travellers  with  biometric  passports  are  eligible  to 
travel without a visa.  

These changes to the Visa Waiver Program have brought new travel restrictions for nationals 
of  Visa  Waiver  Program  countries.  The  Commission  and  the  European  External  Action 
Service conveyed the EU's concerns regarding the new measures in US legislation at several 
occasions to Congress and to the US Administration, and urged the US to implement the law 
in  a  flexible  manner  in  order  to  limiting  the  negative  consequences  for  bona  fide  EU 
travellers12.  In  response  to  those  concerns  and  making  use  of  the  provisions  of  the 
legislation13, the US Government decided to waive the application of the legislation, on a case 
by  case  basis,  for  certain  categories  of  persons14  in  addition  to  the  exemptions  provided 
explicitly  by the legislation (i.e. military staff and government personnel travelled on duty). 
The ESTA form was revised accordingly and now allows applicants who consider that they 

10  Agreement  on  the  exchange  of  screening  information  on  known  or  suspected  terrorists;  Agreement  on 
enhancing cooperation and preventing and combating serious crime. 
11 Travellers to Libya, Somalia and Yemen can have their ESTA revoked at the port of entry while still being 
allowed  to  enter  the  US.  From  April  onwards,  information  about  previous  travels  to  those  countries  will  be 
included  in  the  ESTA  questionnaire.  Dual  nationals  of  Visa  Waiver  Program  countries  holding  citizenship  of 
Libya, Somalia and Yemen are currently still eligible to travel with an ESTA. 
12 E.g. an op-ed, signed by the Head of the EU Delegation in Washington and Ambassadors of all EU Member 
States 
the  Hill  on  14  December  2015 
(http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/262999-what-the-visa-waiver-program-means-to-europe). 
13 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/01/251577.htm 
14 Representatives of international organisations, humanitarian NGOs travelling on official duty, journalists and 
certain groups of business people. 

the  US  was  published 

the  Congress  Blog  of 

to 

in 

5 

 
 
                                                            
belong  to  those  categories  to  provide  additional  information,  and  US  authorities  to  take  a 
decision, on a case by case basis, on their eligibility for the ESTA. 

Bulgarian, Croatian, Cypriot, Polish and Romanian nationals remain subject to the visa 
requirement.  In  the  context  of  achieving  the  full  visa  reciprocity  regarding  the  five 
Member  States  concerned,  it  is  the  Commission’s  long  standing  opinion  that  granting 
visa  waiver  to  the  nationals  of  these  five  countries  would  not  pose  an  increased 
migratory or security threat to the US. Therefore, the Commission will invite the US to 
consider, as a first and immediate step, a measure similar to the Canadian expansion of 
the  eTA  to  “low  risk”  Bulgarian  and  Romanian  travellers  –  i.e.  ESTA  eligibility  for 
nationals  of  these  five  countries  who  have  lawfully  used  a  US  visa  in  the  past  e.g.  10 
years – and, if necessary, initiate legislation in this regard. In addition, the Commission 
will  invite  the  US  to  consider  the  legislative  initiatives  brought  forward,  notably  the 
"Jobs Originating through Launching Travel Act of 2015"15. 

In  parallel to  discussing  full  visa  reciprocity,  the  Commission  will  continue  to  monitor 
the  implementation  of  the  changes  in  the  Visa  Waiver  Program  which  introduce 
additional  travel  restrictions  for  nationals  of  Visa  Waiver  Program  countries  and 
engage  with  the  US  to  ensure  that  these  changes  are  implemented  in  a  manner  which 
limits negative consequences for bona fide EU travellers. In this context, the Commission 
will invite the US to consider the legislative initiatives brought forward (e.g. the "Equal 
Protection  in  Travel  Act  of  2016"16)  in  order  to  mitigate  restrictions  imposed  on  dual 
nationals.  

IV.  ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE SUSPENSION OF THE VISA WAIVER 

According to the Better Regulation  guidelines17,  even  where  no different policy  choices are 
available for the Commission (which applies in the current situation), but directly identifiable 
impacts  of  the  act  are  expected  to  be  significant,  these  impacts  should  be  explained  by  the 
Commission  to  the  legislators  so  that  they  can  take  a  fully  informed  and  evidence  based 
decision. 

a.  Possible impact on EU citizens 

The US in the recent tripartite meeting took the position that the suspension of the visa waiver 
would lead to re-introducing a visa requirement for the nationals of all Member States18. The 
principle of reciprocity is set out in U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act (Sec. 217 (2)(A))19. 
As  a  consequence,  the  situation  would  very  likely  not  improve  for  the  five  Member  States 
concerned and would worsen for all Member States currently enjoying visa-free travel to the 
US. 
Based  on  the  statistics  of  the  World  Tourism  Organisation  (UNWTO)20  and  the  US 
Department of Commerce21, the Commission estimates that EU citizens currently benefitting 
from visa-free travel would need to apply (per year) for at least 8 million visas to travel to the 
US.  Considering  the  USD  160  visa  fee  and  the  related  costs  of  the  application  (which  is 

15 https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/1401  
16 https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/4380/text  
17 http://ec.europa.eu/smart-regulation/guidelines/tool_5_en.htm 
18 See footnote 1. 
19 https://www.uscis.gov/iframe/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-4391.html.  
20 http://www.e-unwto.org/toc/unwtotfb/current 
21 http://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/inbound.general_information.inbound_overview.asp 

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around USD 20022), this amounts to approximately EUR 2,5 billion in terms of extra costs for 
EU citizens/companies23. 

Although the principle of reciprocity is not an element in Canada's visa policy framework, it 
cannot  be  excluded  that  Canada  would  also  respond  to  a  possible  suspension  of  the  visa 
waiver for their citizens in a similar way. Should that be the case, the Commission estimates 
that at least 1,5 million visas would be applied by EU citizens leading to EUR 375 million24 in 
terms of extra costs for them/EU companies25. 

b.  Feasibility of processing visas in case of suspension of the visa waiver 

North  America  is  the  most  important  source  of  international  travellers  coming  to  the  EU. 
Based  on  UNWTO  and  US  Department  of  Commerce  statistics,  the  Commission  estimates 
that  Member  States'  consulates  would  need  to  be  prepared  to  process  approximately  10 
million visa applications per year just in the US. Although Member States have an extensive 
consular  network  in  the  US  (approximately  100  consulates),  they  currently  process  only 
around 120.000 Schengen visa applications per year. 

Establishing  cooperation  with  external  service  providers,  equipping  and  staffing  consulates, 
buying and/or renting new premises would take serious efforts and cost millions of euros. The 
visa fee (EUR 60/visa, as a general rule) might not cover the operational costs, let alone the 
costs  related  to  the  preparations.  Several  Member  States  would  probably  have  to  issue  as 
many visas in the US as they do in the whole of the rest of the world.  

In the case of Canada, Member States would also face serious challenges, although to a lesser 
extent. Currently some 45 consulates process 30.000 applications a year, while in case of the 
suspension of the visa waiver, a minimum of 2 million applications could be expected. 

According to the Regulation, the visa waiver suspension has to take effect within 90 days at 
the  latest  from  the  date  of  the  entry  into  force  of  the  delegated  act.  This  is  the  maximum 
period for preparations. This period of time seems insufficient to take all the necessary steps 
(including  covering  the  costs)  to  process  a  massive  increase  in  visa  applications,  in 
compliance with the provisions of EU law (e.g. deadlines for appointment, processing time). 
In addition to the lack of adequate premises to receive that many visa applicants, the lack of 
the necessary level of cooperation with external service providers and of adequate number of 
trained consular officials and local staff, the increase in applications would also affect the IT 
support of the visa processing. 

In this respect, the central component of the Visa Information System (VIS) and its biometric 
matching  system  might  be  able  to  support  the  additional  load  in  the  short  term  (up  to  one 
year) but it would need to be extended swiftly. Excluding infrastructure aspects, the estimated 
costs  have  been  assessed  internally  as  being  in  the  order  of  at  least  EUR  20-25  million. 
Several  Member  States  would  also  need  to  upgrade  their  national  systems  and  increase  the 
capacity of the communication infrastructure between the central and the national systems. In 
the short term, due to the increased number of applications and queries at the border, longer 
response times could be expected (searches, biometric matching). 

The  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver  would  also  have  a  major  impact  on  border  guards  and 
infrastructure at external borders due to the increase of travellers, whose visas would need to 

22 Exhibit 6 of the Final Rule of the ESTA, p. 32289 (available at: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2015-06-
08/pdf/2015-13919.pdf).  
23 In comparison, visa-free travellers to the US currently pay USD 14 for the ESTA (valid for two years). 
24 Taking into account CAD 100 visa fee and assuming that the amount of the indirect costs can be considered 
similar to the ones of US visa applications. 
25 In comparison, visa-free travellers to Canada pay CAD 7 for the eTA (valid up to five years). 

7 

 
 
                                                            
including 

staff, 
be  verified, 
reorganisation/restructuring  of  workflow  and  upgrading  infrastructure,  especially  at  major 
airports, which would entail considerable costs. 

fingerprints.  This  would 

require  additional 

their 

Even for Brunei, for which the Commission expects that the number of visa applications from 
Brunei nationals would be very low, implementation problems cannot be excluded. Only two 
Member  States  are  present  and  issue  visas  in  the  country.  Therefore  other  Member  States 
would  need  to  conclude  representation  agreements  with  them  so  that  visa  applicants  would 
not  need  to  travel  to  Singapore  and/or  Kuala  Lumpur  to  apply  for  a  visa.  Upgrading  the 
consulates  of  these  Member  States  (premises, staff,  IT  equipment)  might  be  necessary  even 
for issuing a limited number of visas.  

In  conclusion,  the  Commission  considers  that  it  is  highly  unlikely  that  Member  States 
would be able to process the increased number of visa applications in accordance with 
the  Visa  Code  within  90  days  following  the  entry  into  force  of  the  delegated  act. 
Consequently,  applicants  would  face  long  waiting  times  for  receiving  appointments  and  for 
the  processing  of  their  visa  applications.  Moreover,  an  important  factor,  which  could  lead 
many applicants to choosing a non-EU travel destination, would be the effort and additional 
costs related to travelling to the nearest consulate/external service provider of the competent 
Member State to lodge the application. In the US for instance, consulates are concentrated in 
the  East  Coast  and  California.  Against  this  backdrop,  it  is  reasonable  to  expect  that  the 
suspension of the visa waiver would result in a decrease in the number of travellers from 
Canada and the US (and also from Brunei), which would lead to a considerable economic 
loss for the EU. 

c.  Economic impacts  

In  addition  to  the  impact  on  EU  citizens  and  the  difficulties  in  implementation,  significant 
impacts in a wide range of policy areas/sectors should also be considered. 

In the area of tourism, North American visitors could easily switch from the European Union 
to  other  destinations.  Bookings  are  often  arranged  shortly  before  the  intended  journey,  so 
potential visitors would be unlikely to book trips to Europe due to their concern that the visa 
might not  be issued  in time.  A potential  decrease of  5% –  considered to be  a conservative 
estimate – in the number of US/Canadian tourists to the EU, would represent a loss of EUR 
1,8  billion  for  the  EU  tourism  sector26.  The  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver  would  obviously 
lead to an important loss for the aviation industry, including for major European airlines and 
major  European  airport  hubs.  In  terms  of  tourism  revenue,  it  can  be  assumed  that  the  most 
affected  Member  States,  where  the  majority  of  the  economic  loss  (and  also  implementation 
costs)  might  occur,  would  be  France,  Germany,  Italy,  Spain,  Greece  and  the  Netherlands. 
Moreover  the  tourism  sector  of  the  five  Member  States  whose  nationals  still  need  a  visa  to 
visit Canada and/or the US, would also feel the negative impacts.  

Brunei has been a constructive partner in international fora. Negotiations of a Partnership and 
Cooperation  Agreement  have  seen  good  progress.  While  the  population  is  small,  Brunei 
features  amongst  the  wealthiest  countries  in  the  world.  The  economy  is  open  and  highly 
dependent  on  international  trade,  with  the  EU-Brunei  trade  balance  strongly  in  the  EU's 

26 This estimate is based on a 2013 survey about the potential impact of visa facilitations in six other major target 
markets.  According  to  that  survey,  travel  agents  estimated  that  they  would  sell  at  least  20%  more  trips  if 
travelling  to  the  Schengen  area  was  visa-free.  Requiring  a  visa  from  Canadian/US  citizens  would  have  the 
reverse effect but on a smaller scale.  
(http://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/newsroom/cf/itemdetail.cfm?item_id=7005&lang=en) 

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favour.  The  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver  would  be  likely  to  have  a  negative  impact  on 
tourism and business links with Brunei as well. 

d.  Impacts on external relations 

As regards external relations (including trade), the impact would also be substantial. 2016 
is  a  very  important  year  for  EU-Canada  relations  as  it  marks  the  40th  anniversary  of  our 
formal  cooperation.  The  EU  is  eager  to  strengthen  further  the  already  excellent  cooperation 
with Canada, notably in foreign policy and security issues and through the rapid signature and 
implementation  of  the  Strategic  Partnership  Agreement  (SPA)  and  the  Comprehensive 
Economic  and  Trade  Agreement  (CETA).  The  next  EU-Canada  Summit  in  autumn  2016 
should mark the beginning of a new and more active chapter in EU-Canada relations with the 
signature  of  both  agreements.  The  temporary  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver  for  Canadian 
citizens would have a very negative impact on the overall positive climate of cooperation and 
could put at risk the smooth finalisation of these important agreements. 

The depth and breadth of the strategic partnership between the EU and the United States is 
unparalleled. It has prospered for more than six decades, constructed on a solid foundation of 
common values. Together, the EU and the US have the largest bilateral trade and investment 
relationship in the world and the negotiating process for a Transatlantic Trade and Investment 
Partnership (TTIP) has reached a crucial stage which could be jeopardised by the temporary 
suspension  of  the  visa  waiver.  Every  day  the  EU  and  the  US  work  side-by-side  to  build  a 
more secure, democratic and prosperous world. Cooperation in the field of Justice and Home 
Affairs, ensuring security of citizens while facilitating mobility has always been a top priority 
on both sides of the Atlantic. In general, the suspension could be expected to adversely affect 
trans-Atlantic cooperation which is crucial for the well-being and security of people on both 
continents, at a time when it is more important than ever to step up our common efforts. 

The  impact  on  our  external  relations  with  two  strategic  partners  in  a  year  where 
important  agreements  in  the  trade  area  are  at  a  crucial  stage  or  should  be  finalised 
would thus be substantial. 

V. 

CONCLUSION 

The Commission welcomes the achievement of full visa waiver reciprocity with Japan. 

The Commission notes that full visa waiver reciprocity has not yet been achieved with Brunei 
but  based  on  recent  contacts,  the  Commission  expects  that  this  will  be  achieved  with  the 
official notification by the end of April 2016. 

As regards Canada and the United States, the Commission notes that full visa reciprocity has 
not yet been achieved. The Commission will therefore push for full visa reciprocity with these 
two  countries.  The  Commission  urges  Canada  and  the  United  States  to  demonstrate  their 
commitment  by  introducing  tangible  measures  to  achieve  full  visa  reciprocity  for  all  28 
Member States of the European Union.  

As  regards  the  current  reciprocity  mechanism,  the  Commission  invites  the  European 
Parliament and the Council to urgently launch discussions and to take a position on the most 
appropriate  way  forward,  in  light  of  the  assessment  provided  by  this  Communication.  The 
European  Parliament  and  the  Council  are  invited  to  inform  the  Commission  on  their 
respective positions not later than 12 July 2016. 

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