Living in a changing climate.
Date: 2016-02-02
Institutions: European Environment Agency
Subjects: EU environmental policy, activity report, adaptation to climate change, climate change, climate change policy, living conditions, quality of life, quality of the environment

ISSN 2443-7662

EEA SIGNALS 2015

Living in a
changing climate

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Contents

Editorial — Living in a changing climate 

Are we ready for climate change? 

4

9

Interview — Climate change and human health 

18

Climate change and the seas 

Agriculture and climate change 

Soil and climate change 

Interview — Climate change and cities 

Mitigating climate change 

Climate change and investments 

27

33

41

48

53

63

Cover design: INTRASOFT International S.A
Layout: INTRASOFT International S.A

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contained in this report.

Copyright notice
© EEA, Copenhagen, 2015
Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where 
otherwise stated.

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2015

ISBN 978-92-9213-656-7
ISSN 2443-7662
doi:10.2800/965033

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© Katarzyna Dąbrowska, Environment & Me/EEA

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Hans Bruyninckx
Hans Bruyninckx

EEA Executive Director
EEA Executive Director

Living in a changing climate

Our climate is changing. Scientific evidence 

and even regions and countries. Heatwaves 

shows that the global average temperature 

can exacerbate air pollution, aggravating 

is rising, and rainfall patterns are shifting. 

cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and 

It also shows that glaciers, Arctic sea ice 

in some cases resulting in loss of life.

and the Greenland ice sheet are melting. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Warmer oceans risk unbalancing the entire 

Change′s Fifth Assessment Report shows 

food chain, and hence marine life, adding 

that the warming since the mid-20th century 

extra pressures to already overexploited fish 

is predominantly due to an increase in 

stocks. Higher temperatures can also change 

greenhouse-gas concentrations as a result of 

the carbon storage capacity of the soil — the 

emissions from human activities. Combustion 

second largest carbon sink after the oceans. 

of fossil fuels and changes in land use are 

Droughts and warmer temperatures can 

largely responsible for this increase.

impact agricultural production, driving up 

the competition between economic sectors 

It is clear that we need to reduce global 

for precious resources like water and land. 

greenhouse-gas emissions substantially in 

order to avoid the most adverse impacts of 

These impacts result in real losses. Recent 

climate change. It is also clear that we need 

research estimates that without adaptation 

to adapt to our changing climate. Even with 

actions heat-related deaths could reach 

substantial reductions in our greenhouse-gas 

about 200 000 per year in Europe by 2100. 

emissions, our climate is expected to change 

The cost of river flood damages could be 

to some degree and the impacts of this 

more than EUR 10 billion a year. Other 

will be felt across the world, including in 

climate-change impacts include the damage 

Europe. Floods and droughts are expected to 

from forest fires, reduced crop yields, or lost 

become more frequent and intense. Warmer 

workdays due to respiratory diseases.

temperatures, changes in precipitation levels 

and patterns, or extreme weather events 

Faced with such current and future impacts, 

are already impacting our health, natural 

Europeans have no choice but to adapt to 

environment, and economy. 

climate change. A European Union-level 

Climate change affects us

adaptation strategy is already in place to help 

countries plan their adaptation activities, 

and more than 20 European countries have 

We might not be aware of it but climate 

adopted national adaptation strategies. 

change affects us all: farmers, fishermen, 

asthma patients, the elderly, infants, urban 

Some ongoing adaptation projects involve 

residents, skiers, beachgoers… Extreme 

large projects to build new infrastructure 

weather events, such as floods and storm 

(e.g. dykes and flood drains), whereas others 

surges, can devastate small communities — 

propose restoring ecosystems to allow 

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nature to tackle climate change impacts such 

Achieving a reduction of at least 40% in 

as excess water or heat. Different initiatives 

domestic emissions (i.e. emitted in the 

and funding opportunities exist to help 

EU) by 2030 and an 80–95% reduction by 

countries, cities, and regions prepare for 

2050 will partly depend on the EU′s ability 

climate change impacts and reduce their 

to channel sufficient amounts of public 

greenhouse-gas emissions.

and private funds towards sustainable and 

Reducing emissions

innovative technologies. Effective carbon 

prices and regulations are instrumental in 

steering investments towards climate-friendly 

The severity of climate change will depend 

innovations, in renewable energy and energy 

on how much and how quickly we can cut 

efficiency in particular. In some cases, funding 

greenhouse-gas emissions released into the 

decisions might also entail divesting away 

atmosphere. Climate change is one of the 

from some sectors and restructuring others. 

biggest challenges of our times. It is a global 

problem and concerns us all. The scientific 

Emission reductions by EU Member States 

community strongly recommends limiting 

would address the problem only partly, 

the rise in global average temperatures and 

because the EU currently emits only around 

reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to avoid 

10% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. It 

adverse impacts of climate change. Within the 

is clear that achieving the 2°C target requires 

United Nations Framework Convention on 

a global effort with substantial cuts to global 

Climate Change, the international community 

greenhouse-gas emissions. The scientific 

has agreed to limit the global average 

community estimates that to achieve the 2°C 

temperature increase to 2°C above 

target only a limited amount of carbon can 

pre-industrial times. 

be released into the atmosphere before the 

end of the century. The world has already 

If the global average temperature increases 

released the large majority of this ′carbon 

above 2°C, climate change will have much 

budget′. At current rates, the entire carbon 

more severe impacts on our health, natural 

budget will be exhausted well before 2100. 

environment, and economy. An average 2°C 

increase means that temperatures will actually 

To increase our chances of limiting the 

rise more than 2°C in certain parts of the 

average temperature increase to 2°C, 

world, especially in the Arctic, where greater 

scientific studies show that global emissions 

impacts will threaten unique natural systems.

have to peak in 2020, and then start declining. 

In this context, the upcoming climate talks 

The European Union has set ambitious 

(COP21) in Paris need to become a turning 

long-term goals on climate-change mitigation. 

point for a global agreement on cutting 

In 2013, the EU had already reduced its 

greenhouse-gas emissions and providing 

domestic greenhouse-gas emissions by 19% 

support to developing countries.

compared to 1990 levels. The target of a 20% 

reduction by 2020 is within reach.

A low-carbon future by 
2050 is possible

At the heart of the problem lie unsustainable 

consumption and production patterns. 

Building on recent trends observed in 

Europe′s environment and on global 

megatrends, our recent report ′The European 

environment — state and outlook 2015′ 

calls for a transition to a green economy. 

The green economy is a sustainable way of 

life that allows us to live well, and within the 

limits of our planet. This transition involves 

structural changes to key systems, such 

as energy and transport, which require  

long-term investments in our infrastructure. 

Europeans are already investing in these key 

systems. The challenge is to make sure that 

all current and future investments put us one 

step closer to greening our economy, and 

do not lock us into an unsustainable path of 

development. Making the right investments 

today will not only minimise the overall costs of 

climate change, but it can strengthen Europe′s 

expertise in the thriving eco-industries — the 

economy of the future. At the end of the day, 

we all have a stake in defining what life with 

climate change will look like. 

The challenge we are facing might seem 

daunting. But no matter how big the 

challenge may be, the 2°C target is still within 

our reach. We now need to be courageous 

and ambitious enough to grasp it. 

Hans Bruyninckx 

EEA Executive Director

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Are we ready for climate change? 

Climate change is causing a variety of impacts to our health, ecosystems and economy. 

These impacts are likely to become more serious in the coming decades. If not 

addressed, these impacts could prove very costly, in terms of ill health, adverse effects 

on ecosystems, and damaged property and infrastructure. Many adaptation projects are 

already underway across Europe to prepare for a changing climate. 

2014 will be remembered across Europe  

Europe′s climate is changing

for its extreme weather events. In May 2014, 

a low-pressure cyclone hit south-eastern 

A changing climate will affect almost every 

Europe, causing widespread flooding and  

aspect of our lives. Increased intensity and 

2 000 landslides across the Balkans. Then in 

frequency of rainfall in many parts of Europe 

early June 2014, a series of heavy rainstorms 

will mean frequent and serious flooding 

hit northern Europe. By July 2014, Europe was 

events, destroying homes and affecting other 

suffering from another problem: heat. Eastern 

infrastructure (e.g. transport and energy) in 

Europe and the United Kingdom experienced 

risk areas. Elsewhere in Europe, including 

a heatwave. 

in southern Europe, higher temperatures 

and reduced rainfall will mean that many 

Extreme weather events as well as gradual 

areas might face droughts. This could create 

changes in the climate — such as rising 

competition between agriculture, industry, and 

sea levels and warming oceans — will 

households for scarce water resources. It could 

continue. In fact, these events are expected 

also create more heat-related health problems. 

to become more frequent and more intense 

in the future (1). Even if all countries were to 

Climate change will also affect ecosystems 

radically cut their emissions of greenhouse 

across Europe. Many economic sectors 

gases today, the greenhouse gases that have 

depend on healthy and stable ecosystems 

already been released into the atmosphere 

to provide a variety of products and services 

would continue to have a warming effect 

to humans. For example, bees pollinate 

on the climate. In addition to substantially 

our crops, while forests help to absorb 

reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, 

greenhouse gases. Changes to the balance 

countries in Europe and across the world 

of species and habitats in ecosystems could 

need to put in place policies and measures 

have wide-reaching effects. A reduction 

to adapt to climate change.

in rainfall in southern Europe could make 

it impossible to grow certain crops, while 

higher temperatures might allow alien 

invasive species and species that carry 

diseases to migrate northwards. 

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Warmer oceans are already forcing various 

Although climate change is mostly expected 

fish species to move northward, which in 

to create costs for society, it may also create 

turn puts further pressure on the fisheries 

a limited number of new opportunities, 

sector. For example, the northward shift in 

which often come with new risks. Warmer 

mackerel stocks has exacerbated the already 

winters in northern Europe might mean a 

existing problem of overfishing of herring 

reduced need for winter heating. On the 

and mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic. 

other hand, warmer summers might increase 

Climate change has a cost

the energy consumed for cooling. With sea 

ice melting, Arctic sea lanes might be opened 

to shipping and thus cut transport costs. But 

Extreme weather events can result in loss of 

increased shipping might expose the Arctic 

life, and bring economic and social activity in 

to pollution and should be regulated to 

the affected area to a halt. Substantial funds 

ensure that it is safe and clean. 

are often required for rebuilding damaged 

property and infrastructure. However, most 

Whatever the projected impacts are, be 

of the damage from extreme weather events 

it more rain, higher temperatures, or less 

in recent decades cannot be attributed 

freshwater, European countries need to 

to climate change alone. Socio-economic 

adapt their rural landscape, cities, and 

developments, and decisions such as 

economy to a changing climate and reduce 

expanding cities towards floodplains, are the 

our vulnerability to climate change.

main causes of the increased damage. But 

without adaptation actions, damage costs 

and other adverse effects are projected to 

increase as our climate continues to change.

What is ′climate 
change adaptation′?

′Adaptation′ covers a wide range of activities 

The costs of future climate change are 

and policies that seek to prepare societies 

potentially very large. Recent research 

for a changing climate. When adaptation 

estimates that without adaptation actions, 

policies are implemented they can reduce 

heat-related deaths could reach about  

the impacts and damage costs of climate 

200 000 per year in Europe by 2100, and  

change, and prepare societies to thrive 

the cost of river flood damages could be 
more than EUR 10 billion a year(2). In the 

and develop in a changed climate. Some of 

these actions have a relatively low cost, such 

case of extensive climate change and no 

as information campaigns on how to stay 

adaptation actions, forest fires could affect 

cool in warm weather or an early-warning 

an area of roughly 800 000 hectares every 

system for heatwaves. Other adaptation 

year. The number of people affected by 

actions can be very expensive, such as 

droughts could also increase by a factor of 

building dykes and coastal defences (such 

seven to about 150 million per year, and 

construction measures are often referred as 

economic losses due to sea-level rise would 

′grey adaptation′), relocating houses out of 

more than triple to EUR 42 billion a year. 

flood-plains, or expanding retention basins 

to respond to droughts. 

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Some adaptation measures involve using 

natural methods to increase an area′s 

resilience to climate change. Such ′green 

adaptation′ actions include restoring  

sand-dunes to prevent erosion or planting 

trees on river banks to reduce flooding. 

The city of Nijmegen in the Netherlands has 

implemented green adaptation measures of 

this sort. The Waal River bends and narrows 

around Nijmegen, causing floods in this 

coastal city. To prevent the damage from 

these floods, the city is building a canal, giving 

the river more room to flow. This also creates 

new spaces for recreation and for nature.

The Dutch Building with Nature programme 

is another good example of the combination 

of grey and green adaptation. It has 

promoted the restoration of coastal wetlands 

such as swamps, reedbeds, marshes, and 

mudflats. These wetland areas help to 

prevent soil subsidence thanks to the root 

structures of wetland plants. By preventing 

soil subsidence at coastal areas, this protects 

the surrounding area from flooding. 

Other adaptation measures consist of 

using laws, taxes, financial incentives and 

information campaigns to enhance resilience 

to climate change (measures knowns as 

′soft adaptation′). An information campaign 

in Zaragoza, Spain, made the city′s 700 000 

inhabitants more aware of the need to use 

water sparingly to survive the lengthier 

droughts expected for this semi-arid 

region. Coupled with control of leakage from 

the water supply distribution network, the 

project has almost halved daily water use per 

person compared with 1980, and the city′s 

total water consumption has fallen by 30% 

since 1995.

Adaptation in the
European Union 

Not adapting is not a 
viable option

The European Union and its Member 

Extreme weather events and EU policies 

States are already working on climate 

have placed adaptation policies and 

change adaptation. In 2013, the European 

measures higher on the political agenda 

Commission adopted the communication 

in European countries in recent decades. 

′An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate 

However, according to a recent survey, many 

change′, which helps countries plan their 

countries are prevented from taking action 

adaptation activities. The Strategy also 

by a lack of resources such as time, money, 

promotes the creation and sharing of 

or technology. ′Uncertainties about the 

knowledge, and aims to enhance resilience 

extent of future climate change′ and ′unclear 

in key sectors by using EU funds. More than 

responsibilities′ were also seen as barriers by 

20 European countries have already adopted 

a large number of countries (5). 

adaptation strategies, outlining initial actions 

they will take (e.g. vulnerability assessments 

The effects of climate change vary from 

and research) and how they intend to adapt 

region to region. Policymakers also face the 

to a changing climate. However, in terms 

difficulty of incorporating future changes in 

of concrete action on-the-ground, many 

wealth, infrastructure, and population into 

countries are still at a very early stage. 

their climate-change adaptation plans. What 

will an increasingly older and urbanised 

An EEA survey of adaptation measures 

population need in terms of transport, 

showed that water management is the 

housing, energy, health services, or simply 

sector that most countries are prioritising. 

food production, in a changing climate?

However, countries also direct resources 

to providing information to their citizens. 

Rather than treating adaptation as a 

For example, as part of its efforts to reduce 

separate policy sphere, adaptation can best 

the spread of insect-borne diseases, the 

be implemented through better integration 

region of Emilia Romagna runs an awareness 

into every other area of public policy. Within 

campaign on the dangers of Lyme disease, 

their adaptation strategies, EU countries 

dengue, and West Nile disease. 

and the European Union are exploring how 

Many countries have created online 

different policy spheres such as agriculture, 

adaptation-knowledge platforms to facilitate 

health, energy, or transport.

they can integrate adaptation concerns into 

the sharing of transnational, national, and 
local experiences and good practice (3). The 
Climate-ADAPT (4) portal, managed by the 

European Environment Agency and the 

European Commission, provides a European 

platform for sharing such experiences. 

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Extreme weather events in particular show 

It is also clear that an effective combination 

that not adapting is a very costly decision 

of adaptation and mitigation measures can 

and is not a viable option in the medium 

help to ensure that future impacts of climate 

and long term. For example, transport 

change are limited, and that when they do 

infrastructure is often severely damaged in 

come, Europe is better prepared and  

floods. When movement of people, goods, 

more resilient. 

or services is hindered, the indirect costs 

to the economy can be many times higher 

than the direct cost of damaged transport 

infrastructure. 

It is clear that, like many other infrastructure 

projects, adapting transport infrastructure 

is costly. It may also be difficult because the 

transport system involves different groups, 

from vehicle manufacturers to infrastructure 

managers to passengers. One cost-efficient 

solution is to consider adaptation measures 

when infrastructure is built or renewed, 

and the EU budget offers different funding 

opportunities to support infrastructure 

projects. 

An effective solution requires a longer-term 

and wider perspective with the integration 

of climate change into different public 

policies around sustainability. In the case 

of climate change adaptation, this raises 

questions about how to build our cities, how 

to transport people and products, how to 

supply energy to our homes and factories, 

how to produce our food, and how to 

manage our natural environment. 

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Europe′s climate is changing
A changing climate will affect almost every aspect of our lives. Increased intensity and frequency of 
rainfall in many parts of Europe will mean frequent and serious flooding events. Elsewhere in Europe, 
including in southern Europe, higher temperatures and reduced rainfall will mean that many areas might 
face droughts.

Many economic sectors depend on healthy and stable ecosystems to provide a variety of products  
and services to humans. Changes to the balance of species and habitats in ecosystems could have  
wide-reaching effects. A reduction in rainfall in southern Europe could make it impossible to grow 
certain crops, while higher temperatures might allow alien invasive species and species that carry 
diseases to migrate northwards.

Arctic

Northern Europe

Temperature rise much larger than global average
Decrease in Arctic sea-ice coverage
Decrease in Greenland ice sheet
Decrease in permafrost areas
Increasing risk of biodiversity loss
Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil
and gas resources

Temperature rise much larger than global average
Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover
Increase in river flows
Northward movement of species
Increase in crop yields
Decrease in energy demand for heating
Increase in hydropower potential
Increasing damage risk from winter storms
Increase in summer tourism

North-western Europe

Central and eastern Europe

Increase in winter precipitation
Increase in river flow
Northward movement of species
Decrease in energy demand for heating
Increasing risk of river and coastal flooding

Increase in warm temperature extremes
Decrease in summer precipitation
Increase in water temperature
Increasing risk of forest fire
Decrease in economic value of forests

Coastal zones and regional seas

Mountain areas

Sea-level rise
Increase in sea surface temperatures
Increase in ocean acidity
Northward expansion of fish and plankton species
Changes in phytoplankton communities
Increasing risk for fish stocks

Temperature rise larger than European average
Decrease in glacier extent and volume
Decrease in mountain permafrost areas
Upward shift of plant and animal species
High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions
Increasing risk of soil erosion
Decrease in ski tourism

Mediterranean region

Temperature rise larger than European average
Decrease in annual precipitation
Decrease in annual river flow
Increasing risk of biodiversity loss
Increasing risk of desertification
Increasing water demand for agriculture
Decrease in crop yields
Increasing risk of forest fire
Increase in mortality from heatwaves
Expansion of habitats for disease-carrying insects
Decrease in hydropower potential
Decrease in summer tourism and potential increase
in other seasons

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Source: EEA Report No 12/2012. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012.

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Bettina Menne
Programme Manager at

WHO Europe

Climate change and 
human health

Climate change in Europe is already affecting public health, and will continue to do so in 

the future. How does it affect Europeans today? What does the future look like? We asked 

these questions to Bettina Menne from WHO Europe. 

Does climate change affect 
human health?
Climate change affects public health in 

70 000 excess deaths in 12 European 

countries, mostly among older people.  

As people get older, the thermal regulation 

many different ways. There are direct and 

of the body is impaired, which makes 

indirect impacts, as well as those that occur 

older people more vulnerable to high 

immediately and those that occur over a 

temperatures. 

longer period of time. We estimate that 

150 000 deaths worldwide were caused by 

By 2050, heatwaves are projected to cause 

climate change in 2000. According to a new 

120 000 excess deaths per year in the 

WHO study, this is projected to increase 

European Union, and to have an economic 

to 250 000 deaths per year worldwide by 

cost of EUR 150 billion if no further 

2040. This estimate would have actually 

measures are taken. This higher estimate is 

been higher if we had not factored in the 

not only due to more frequent and higher 

reduction of child mortality expected in 

temperatures but also due to Europe′s 

future years. 

changing demographics. Currently, around 

20% of EU citizens are over 65 years of age, 

Extreme weather events are already among 

and their share in the population is expected 

the top climate-change impacts that affect 

to increase to around 30% in 2050.

public health. In addition, mortality related 

to heatwaves and flooding is expected 

High temperatures are also often associated 

to increase, in particular in Europe. And 

with air pollution, and ground-level ozone 

changes in the distribution of vector-borne 

pollution in particular. Air pollution can cause 

diseases will also affect human health. 

respiratory and cardiovascular problems, 

especially among children and older people, 

and can result in premature deaths. 

How do extreme weather events 
affect public health?
Different types of extreme weather events 

affect different regions. Heatwaves are 

mostly a problem in southern Europe and 

the Mediterranean, but they are also a 

problem in other regions. According to 

estimates, the heatwave of 2003 caused 

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Other extreme weather events — such as 

high precipitation events that might cause 

floods — also affect public health. 

How do floods affect our health?
To give a concrete example, the devastating 

What other kinds of health risks are 
associated with climate change?
The health risks come from a variety of 

sources. Higher temperatures facilitate 

forest fires. Around 70 000 forest fires occur 

every year on the European continent. 

floods in 2014 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 

Although the large majority are man-made, 

Croatia, and Serbia caused 60 deaths and 

high temperatures and droughts often 

affected more than 2.5 million people. In 

worsen the overall damage. While some fires 

addition to the immediate health impacts, 

might result in loss of lives and property, 

rescue operations and public health services 

they all cause air pollution, especially from 

were also affected. Many hospitals, especially 

particulate matter. This in turns triggers 

lower floors where heavy medical equipment 

illness and premature death. 

is often kept, were flooded. This reduced the 

capacity of health services to cope with the 

Higher temperatures, milder winters, and 

disaster and to care for existing patients. 

wetter summers are expanding the area 

where certain disease-carrying insects (such 

In the aftermath of such a disaster, displaced 

as ticks and mosquitoes) can survive and 

people who lost their homes are also likely 

thrive. These insects can then carry diseases 

to suffer from other long-term health 

— such as Lyme disease, dengue, and 

problems, including stress. 

malaria — to new areas where the climate 

was not suitable to the disease previously. 

There are also indirect health risks, largely 

due to deterioration or contamination 

Climate change could also mean that some 

of the environment. For example, floods 

diseases might no longer be able to thrive in 

can carry pollutants and chemicals from 

the areas they currently affect. For example, 

industrial facilities, waste water, and sewage 

future warming could mean that ticks — and 

water. This can lead to the contamination 

consequently tick-borne diseases — will be 

of drinking water and agricultural land. 

found at higher altitudes and further north, 

When there is no secure faecal and chemical 

closely linked to the changing distribution of 

disposal, floodwaters or greater run-off can 

their natural hosts, such as deer.

carry contaminants to lakes and the sea, and 

some might enter our food chain. 

Seasonal variations — some seasons starting 

earlier and lasting longer — might also have 

adverse impacts on human health. This 

could have a particular effect on people with 

allergies. We might also experience peaks in 

asthma cases, triggered by combined exposure 

to different allergens at the same time. 

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There are also other long-term health risks 

WHO Europe has been working on the health 

associated with climate change. Changes in 

effects of climate change for more than 

temperature and precipitation are expected 

20 years. We develop methods and tools, 

to affect food-production capacity in the 

carry out impact assessments, and provide 

wider pan-European region, with significant 

assistance to Member States to adapt to 

reductions expected in Central Asia.  

climate change (6). In our recent report (7), we 

A further reduction of production capacity 

recommend adaptation measures, but we 

in the region could not only exacerbate the 

stress that adaptation measures will not be 

malnutrition problem, but also could have 

enough on their own. 

widespread impacts by raising food prices 

worldwide. Climate change is therefore a 

It is quite clear that countries also need to 

factor we have to take into account when 

undertake measures to mitigate climate 

we look at food security and access to 

change to protect public health. Some of 

affordable food. It can aggravate existing 

these measures can have significant health 

social and economic problems. 

co-benefits. For example, the promotion of 

How can public authorities 
prepare for the health impacts
of climate change?
Compared with many other regions, 

so-called ′active transport′ (such as cycling 

and walking) can contribute to reducing 

obesity and non-communicable diseases. 

And renewable energy such as solar energy 

can help to provide continuous energy to 

European health services are relatively better 

health services in remote areas. 

equipped to deal with the health impacts 

of climate change. Malaria, for example, 

is not likely to re-establish itself in the 

European Union. Nevertheless, single events 

such as floods or long-lasting heatwaves 

will continue to exert increasing pressure 

on the health services in affected areas. 

European countries will need to strengthen 

and adapt their health services to cope with 

the potential impacts of climate change in 

their area. Some measures could involve 

relocating and refitting hospitals to prepare 

against possible floods. Other measures 

could include better tools for sharing 

information with vulnerable groups to 

prevent their exposure to pollution. 

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Are we ready for climate change?
Climate change is causing a variety of impacts to our health, ecosystems and economy. These impacts 
are likely to become more serious in the coming decades. If not addressed, these impacts could 
prove very costly, in terms of ill health, adverse effects on ecosystems, and damaged property and 
infrastructure.

Adaptation covers a wide range of activities and policies that seek to prepare societies for a changing 
climate. An effective combination of adaptation and mitigation measures can help to ensure that future 
impacts of climate change are limited, and that when they do come, Europe is better prepared and  
more resilient.

i

Mitigation and adaptation

Climate change impacts

2100?

Without adaptation and mitigation 
measures, in Europe, by 2100:

Forest fires could affect an area
of roughly 800 000 hectares
every year.

River flood damages could cost
more than EUR 10 billion a year.

EU greenhouse-gas emissions
have decreased by 19% since 1990, 
despite a 45 % increase in GDP.

The EU′s total resource use
has declined by 19% since 2007
and recycling rates have improved.

Major EU engineering companies 
already earn up to 40% of 
revenues from their environment 
portfolios

CO2

GDP

The number of people affected
by droughts could increase
to about 150 million per year.

Economic loss due to sea-level rise 
would more than triple to  
EUR 42 billion a year.

Heat-related deaths could reach
about 200 000 per year.

Domestic material consumption in 
the EU declined by 10% from 2000 
to 2012,  despite a 16% increase in 
economic output. 

Employment in the eco-industries 
increased by 47% from 2000 to 
2012, adding 1.4 million new jobs.

From 1990 to 2012, the share of
renewables in energy production 
more than doubled in the EU.

24

Sources: EEA, 2015. European environment — state and outlook 2015:
Climate change impacts and adaptation, Energy, Green economy, Resource efficiency, Waste.

© EEA

25

Climate change and the seas

Climate change is warming the oceans, causing acidification of marine environments, and 

changing rainfall patterns. This combination of factors often exacerbates the impacts of 

other human pressures on the seas, leading to loss of marine biodiversity. Many human 

livelihoods depend on marine biodiversity and ecosystems, so action to limit ocean 

warming must be taken quickly. 

Changes in the marine
food web

the new conditions, this can have spillover 

effects on the other organisms that depend 

on or interact with them. This chain of events 

The oceans absorb heat from the 

ultimately influences the overall functioning 

atmosphere. Measurements now show that 

of the ecosystem, which can lead to loss of 

the warming of the oceans has affected 

biodiversity. This is exactly what is happening 

areas far below the ocean surface in recent 

with copepods: because they are eaten by 

decades. The effect on marine life of warming 

so many other organisms their suffering 

oceans is strong, and biodiversity is at ever 

influences the entire food web. 

greater risk. Nowhere is this more clearly 

highlighted than in the case of  

Higher up in the food chain, animals that 

warmer-water plankton in the Northeast 

cannot find food are forced to move in 

Atlantic. Some copepod are moving 

order to survive. In Europe, where sea 

northwards at a rate of 200–250 km per 

surface temperature is increasing more 

decade. These small copepods are near the 

rapidly than in the global oceans (9), they 

bottom of the food chain. Fish and other 

move predominantly northwards (10). This 

animals of the Northeast Atlantic feed on 

phenomenon can affect fish stocks, as 

these copepods and their distribution pattern 

illustrated by the way mackerel have started 

in the oceans may change as a result of the 

to spend more time in more northern 

copepods′ northward movement (8).

waters. This can have a knock-on effect on 

local fishermen and communities further 

Animals living outside their optimal 

afield. One of the knock-on effects was the 

temperature range expend more energy 

infamous ′mackerel war′ between the EU 

on respiration to the detriment of their 

and the Faroe Islands. The ′mackerel war′ 

other functions. This weakens them, making 

arose partly because of overfishing of blue 

them more vulnerable to disease, and 

whiting and partly as a direct result of fish 

allowing other species that are better suited 

species, including herring and mackerel, 

to the new temperature regime to get a 

moving further north in response to rising 

competitive advantage. In addition, the 

sea temperatures. The extra time spent by 

spores, eggs, or offspring of these animals 

the fish stocks in Faroese waters resulted 

will struggle to develop in suboptimal 

in a disagreement on fishing rights. From 

temperatures. As some species suffer in 

a Faroese perspective, they had a right to 

26

© Dimitris Poursanidis, Environment & Me/EEA

27

 
the fish in their waters, but from an EU 

perspective, agreements on sustainable 

Dead zones

fishing quotas were being breached, 

A rise in ocean temperature also speeds 

potentially leading to the risk of overfishing 

up the metabolism of organisms and their 

with the loss of EU income and jobs as a 

oxygen intake, which in turn reduces oxygen 

consequence (11). The dispute came to an end 

concentrations in water. This can ultimately 

in 2014, when the EU lifted import bans on 

make parts of the ocean uninhabitable for 

the fish caught in Faroese waters in return for 

sea life. 

an end to fishing carried out by the islanders.

Acidification

Oxygen in the sea can also be depleted as 

a result of nutrients entering the water. 

For example, rainfall brings nutrients 

In addition to absorbing heat, the oceans 

from agricultural fertilisers to the sea. This 

are also a carbon-dioxide sink. The more 
CO2 enters the atmosphere, the more is 
absorbed into the oceans, where it reacts 

enrichment with nutrients such as nitrates 

and phosphates may occur naturally, 

but about 80% of all nutrients in the sea 

with water to produce carbonic acid, 

come from land-based activities, including 

resulting in acidification. The oceans have 

sewage, industrial waste, municipal waste, 

absorbed more than a quarter of the carbon 

and agricultural run-off. The rest mainly 

dioxide released into the atmosphere since 

comes from nitrous gases emitted when 

1750 through human activities (12). 

burning fossil fuels from traffic, industry, 

power generation, and heating (14). In the 

Ocean acidification has historically been 

parts of Europe where increased rainfall and 

associated with each of the five major 

temperature are brought about by climate 

extinction events that have occurred on 

change, the effects of nutrient enrichment 

Earth. Today acidification is happening  

are exacerbated. 

100 times faster than any other period in  

the last 55 million years (13) and species may 

not be able to adapt quickly enough. 

Acidification affects marine life in different 

ways. For example, corals, mussels, oysters 

and other marine organisms that build shells 

of calcium carbonate have a more difficult 

time constructing their shells or skeletal 

material as sea water pH decreases. Thus, 

anthropogenic reductions in sea water pH 

could affect entire marine ecosystems.

28

© Dimitris Poursanidis, Environment & Me/EEA

29

Enrichment of water with nutrients drives 

Uncertain future

a process known as ′eutrophication′, which 

leads to excessive plant growth. When 

Although certain models look at possible 

this happens in the sea, it creates what is 

climate change scenarios, it is difficult to 

known as an algal bloom. Through excess 

predict how marine species will behave as the 

respiration and the eventual death and 

stresses on the oceans are magnified. But we 

decay of these aquatic plants, oxygen is 

do know that we must take action to mitigate 

removed from the water. This results in 

climate change now in order to limit further 

an oxygen deficit and ultimately leads to 

ocean warming and ocean acidification, and 

hypoxic areas or ′dead zones′ where aerobic 

the effects that both of these have on the 

life can no longer survive. 

environment and our well-being.

Such dead zones can be observed in 

Europe′s partially enclosed seas, such as 

the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Water 

temperature in the Baltic Sea has increased 

by about 2°C over the last century, which has 

contributed to the increase in the extent of 

dead zones. Moreover, the global occurrence 

of dead zones has doubled in frequency 
every decade since the mid-1900s (15). And 

unfortunately, even if the nutrient emissions 

to European seas were to be halted today, 

the legacy of past nutrient emissions would 

continue to cause dead zones for decades to 

come before the seas were returned to their 

former state.

Climate change and the seas
Climate change is warming the oceans, causing acidification of marine environments, and changing 
rainfall patterns. This combination of factors often exacerbates the impacts of other human pressures 
on the seas, leading to biodiversity loss in the oceans.

Glacial melting, warming of 
the ocean, and land movement 
raise sea level.

Changes in fish stocks 
impact livelihoods.

2

O
C

2

O
C

Warm current

t
a
e
H

Nutrient emissions are leading 
to excessive algal bloom and 
dead zones.

Oceans absorb about 25% of the 
global CO2 emissions released in 
the atmosphere.

Acidification and warming of 
the ocean affect fish stocks and 
threaten marine biodiversity.

20

15

Global ocean heat content

Cold current

0–2 000m (5-year average)

10

s
e

l

u
o

30

J

2
2
^
0
1

5

0

-5

-10

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Sources:   Sabine et al. 2004. (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/sabi2683/sabi2683.shtml).
EEA indicator on ocean heat content. Data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOA A).

© EEA

31

 
 
 
Agriculture and climate change

Agriculture both contributes to climate change and is affected by climate change. 

The EU needs to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture and adapt its 

food-production system to cope with climate change. But climate change is only one 

of many pressures on agriculture. Faced with growing global demand and competition 

for resources, the EU′s food production and consumption need to be seen in a broader 

context, linking agriculture, energy, and food security.

Food is a basic human need, and a healthy 

Agriculture accounted for 10% of the EU′s 

diet is a key component of our health and 

total greenhouse-gas emissions in 2012. 

wellbeing. A complex and increasingly 

A significant decline in livestock numbers, 

globalised system of production and delivery 

more efficient application of fertilisers, and 

has developed over time to meet our need 

better manure management reduced the 

for food and for different flavours. In today′s 

EU′s emissions from agriculture by 24% 

world, a fish caught in the Atlantic might be 

between 1990 and 2012. 

served within days in a restaurant in Prague 

alongside rice imported from India. Similarly, 

However, agriculture in the rest of the world 

European food products are sold and 

is moving in the opposite direction. Between 

consumed in the rest of the world.

2001 and 2011, global emissions from crop 

Agriculture contributes to 
climate change

and livestock production grew by 14%.  

The increase occurred mainly in developing 

countries, due to a rise in total agricultural 

output. This was driven by increased  

Before reaching our plates, our food is 

global food demand and changes in  

produced, stored, processed, packaged, 

food-consumption patterns due to rising 

transported, prepared, and served. At every 

incomes in some developing countries. 

stage, food provisioning releases greenhouse 

Emissions from enteric fermentation 

gases into the atmosphere. Farming in 

increased 11% in this period and accounted 

particular releases significant amounts of 

for 39% of the sector′s total greenhouse-gas 

methane and nitrous oxide, two powerful 

outputs in 2011. 

greenhouse gases. Methane is produced 

by livestock during digestion due to enteric 

fermentation and is released via belches. It 

can also escape from stored manure and 

organic waste in landfills. Nitrous oxide 

emissions are an indirect product of organic 

and mineral nitrogen fertilisers. 

32

© Javier Arcenillas, Environment & Me/EEA

33

Given the central importance of food in our 

lives, a further reduction of greenhouse-gas 

Climate change affects 
agriculture

emissions from agriculture remains quite 

challenging. Nevertheless, there is  

Crops need suitable soil, water, sunlight, and 

still potential to further reduce the 

heat to grow. Warmer air temperatures have 

greenhouse-gas emissions linked to food 

already affected the length of the growing 

production in the EU. A better integration 

season over large parts of Europe. Flowering 

of innovative techniques into production 

and harvest dates for cereal crops are now 

methods, such as capturing methane from 

happening several days earlier in the season. 

manure, more efficient use of fertilisers, 

These changes are expected to continue in 

and greater efficiency in meat and dairy 

many regions.

production (i.e. reducing emissions per unit 

of food produced) can help. 

In general, in northern Europe agricultural 

productivity might increase due to a longer 

In addition to such efficiency gains, changes 

growing season and an extension of the 

on the consumption side can help to further 

frost-free period. Warmer temperatures and 

lower greenhouse-gas emissions linked to 

longer growing seasons might also allow 

food. In general, meat and dairy products 

new crops to be cultivated. In southern 

have the highest global footprint of carbon, 

Europe, however, extreme heat events 

raw materials, and water per kilogramme 

and reductions in precipitation and water 

of any food. In terms of greenhouse-gas 

availability are expected to hamper crop 

emissions, livestock and fodder production 

productivity. Crop yields are also expected 

each generate more than 3 billion tonnes 
of CO2 equivalent. Post-farm transport 
and processing account for only a tiny 

fraction of the emissions linked to food. By 

to vary increasingly from year to year due to 

extreme weather events and other factors 

such as pests and diseases. 

reducing food waste and our consumption 

In parts of the Mediterranean area, due to 

of emission-intensive food products, we can 

extreme heat and water stress in summer 

contribute to cutting the greenhouse-gas 

months, some summer crops might be 

emissions of agriculture.

cultivated in winter instead. Other areas, such 

as western France and south-eastern Europe, 

are expected to face yield reductions due to 

hot and dry summers without the possibility 

of shifting crop production into winter.

Changes in temperatures and growing 

seasons might also affect the proliferation and 

the spreading of some species, such as insects, 

invasive weeds, or diseases, all of which 

might in turn affect crop yields. A part of the 

potential yield losses can be offset by farming 

practices, such as rotating crops to match 

water availability, adjusting sowing dates to 

temperature and rainfall patterns, and using 

crop varieties better suited to new conditions 

(e.g. heat- and drought-resilient crops).

Land-based food sources are not the only 

food sources affected by climate change. The 

distribution of some fish stocks has already 

changed in the Northeast Atlantic, affecting 

the communities relying on these stocks 

throughout the supply chain. Along with 

increased maritime shipping, warmer water 

temperatures can also help facilitate the 

establishment of invasive marine species, 

causing local fish stocks to collapse.

Some EU funds, including the European 

Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, 

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and 

loans from the European Investment Bank, 

are available to help farmers and fishing 

communities to adapt to climate change. 

There are also other funds under the CAP 

aimed at helping to reduce greenhouse-gas 

emissions from agricultural activities. 

34

© EEA

35

Global market, global demand, 
global warming…

Although not directly linked to climate 

change, high concentrations of nutrients 

(especially phosphates and nitrates) in water 

In line with projected population growth and 

bodies cause eutrophication. Eutrophication 

changes in dietary habits in favour of higher 

promotes algae growth and depletes oxygen 

meat consumption, the global demand for 

in the water, which in turn has severe 

food is expected to grow by up to 70% in 

impacts on aquatic life and water quality. 

the coming decades. Agriculture is already 

one of the economic sectors with the largest 

Whether in Europe or the rest of the world, 

environmental impact. This substantial 

meeting the growing demand for food by 

increase in demand will unsurprisingly create 

using more land would have serious impacts 

additional pressures. How can we meet 

on the environment and the climate. The 

this increasing global demand while at the 

areas most suitable to agriculture in Europe 

same time reducing the impacts of European 

are already cultivated to a large extent. Land, 

food production and consumption on the 

especially fertile agricultural land, is a limited 

environment? 

resource in Europe and across the world. 

Reducing the amount of food produced is 

Converting forest areas into agricultural 

not a viable solution. The EU is one of the 

land is also not a solution as this process 

world′s largest food producers, producing 

is a source of greenhouse-gas emissions. 

around one eighth of the global cereal 

Similar to many other land-use changes, 

output, two thirds of the world′s wine, half of 

deforestation (currently occurring mainly 

its sugar beet, and three quarters of its olive 

outside the European Union) also puts 

oil (16). Any reduction in key staples is likely 

biodiversity at risk, further undermining 

to jeopardise food security in the EU and in 

nature′s ability to cope with climate change 

the world, and increase global food prices. 

impacts (such as absorbing heavy rainfall).

This would make it harder for many groups 

around the world to access affordable and 

Competing demands

nutritious food. 

It is clear that the world will need to produce 

Producing more food out of the land that is 

more food and that key resources are 

already used for agriculture often requires 

limited. Agriculture has high impacts on the 

heavier use of nitrogen-based fertilisers, 

environment and the climate. Moreover, 

which in turn release nitrous oxide emissions 

climate change affects — and will continue 

and contribute to climate change. Intensive 

to affect — how much food can be produced 

agriculture and fertiliser use also release 

and where. 

nitrates to the soil and to water bodies. 

36

© Virgolici Raluca, Environment & Me /EEA

37

Who gets to produce what and where is 

In doing this, we must also remember that 

a socio-political question and is likely to 

farmers can play a key role in maintaining 

become more controversial in the future. 

and managing Europe′s biodiversity. They 

The global competition for these essential 

are also a critical component of the rural 

resources, especially with the pending 

economy. Therefore, policy measures to 

impacts of climate change, is driving 

tackle this highly complex problem of food 

developed countries to purchase large 

and the environment should take into 

patches of agricultural land in less-developed 

consideration agriculture′s impacts on 

countries. Such land purchases and climate 

the environment and its socio-economic 

change impacts raise questions about 

importance for many communities.

food security in developing countries in 

particular. Food security is not only a matter 

of producing sufficient quantities of food, 

but also of having access to food of sufficient 

nutritional value. 

This complex problem requires a coherent 

and integrated policy approach to climate 

change, energy, and food security. Faced 

with climate change and competition for 

scarce resources, the entire food system 

will need to transform itself and be much 

more resource efficient while continuously 

reducing its environmental impacts, 

including its greenhouse-gas emissions. We 

need to increase yields while reducing our 

dependence on agrochemicals, to reduce 

food waste, and to reduce our consumption 

of resource-intensive and greenhouse  

gas-intensive foods such as meat. 

Climate change and agriculture
Agriculture both contributes to climate change and is affected by climate change. The EU needs to reduce 
its greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture and adapt its food-production system to cope with climate 
change. Faced with growing global demand and competition for resources, the EU′s food production and 
consumption need to be seen in a broader context, linking agriculture, energy, and food security.

Agriculture accounts for  
10% of the EU′s greenhouse-gas 
emissions.

Methane

CO2

Nitrous
oxide

W

N

S

E

-24%

From 1990 to 2012, greenhouse-gas 
emissions from agriculture in the EU 
decreased by 24%.

In southern Europe extreme heat events and 
reduced precipitation and water availability 
are expected to reduce crop yields, while the 
suitability for growing crops may improve in 
northern Europe.

Greenhouse-gas emissions from agriculture can be reduced further by:

Better integration of innovative 
techniques

Greater efficiency in meat and 
dairy production

Capturing methane from manure

Reducing food waste

More efficient use of fertilisers

Consuming less meat and
other products with high carbon footprint

Globally

+14%

Between 2001 and 2011,  
greenhouse-gas emissions from crop  
and livestock production grew by 14%. 

+70%

The demand for food is expected to grow by 
up to 70% in coming decades. 

Did you know?

Meat and dairy products have the highest global  footprint of carbon, 
raw materials and water per kilogramme of any food.

Post-farm transport and processing account for only a tiny fraction 
of the emissions linked to food.

38

© EEA

39

Sources: EEA, 2015. European Environment — state and outlook 2015: Agriculture. Eurostat, 2014. Statistics explained: Agricultural 
production — crops (ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Agricultural_production_-_crops).

Soil and climate change

Soil is an important — and often neglected — element of the climate system. It is the 

second largest carbon store, or ′sink′, after the oceans. Depending on the region, climate 

change might result in more carbon being stored in plants and soil due to vegetation 

growth, or more carbon being released into the atmosphere. Restoring key ecosystems on 

land, and a sustainable use of the land in urban and rural areas, can help us mitigate and 

adapt to climate change. 

Climate change is often seen as something 

In other areas, the carbon-containing organic 

that occurs in the atmosphere. After all, when 

matter in stable peatlands is prevented 

plants photosynthesise, they draw carbon out 

from decomposing due to the low levels of 

of the atmosphere. But atmospheric carbon 

oxygen in the water. If such areas dry out, 

also affects the soil, because carbon that is 

not used for above-ground plant growth is 

distributed through the roots of a plant, which 

deposit carbon in the soil. If undisturbed, this 

the organic matter can quickly break down, 
releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) into the 
atmosphere (20).

carbon can become stable, and remain locked 

There are already signs that soil moisture 

away for thousands of years (17). Healthy soils 

content is being affected by rising 

can thus mitigate climate change.

temperatures and changes in precipitation 

patterns. And future projections show this 

When it comes to carbon storage, not all 

may continue, with a general change in 

soils are equal. The most carbon-rich soils 

summer soil moisture over most of Europe 

are peatlands, mostly found in northern 

over the period 2021 to 2050, including 

Europe, the United Kingdom and Ireland. 

significant decreases in the Mediterranean 

Grassland soils also store a lot of carbon per 

region and some increases in the  

hectare. In contrast, the soil in warm and 

north-eastern part of Europe (21).

dry areas in southern Europe contains less 

carbon (18).

Climate change puts soil 
under pressure

The increasing concentration of carbon 

dioxide in our atmosphere may cause the 

microbes in the soil to work faster to break 

down organic matter, potentially releasing 

even more carbon dioxide (22). The release of 

In some parts of Europe, higher 

greenhouse gases from the soil is expected 

temperatures may lead to more vegetation 

to be particularly substantial in the far 

growth and more carbon stored in the soil. 

north of Europe and Russia, where melting 

However, higher temperatures could also 

permafrost may release large quantities 

increase decomposition and mineralisation 

of methane, a greenhouse gas much more 

of the organic matter in the soil, reducing 

potent than carbon dioxide.

organic carbon content (19). 

40

© EEA

41

 
It is not yet clear what the overall effect will 

be, as different regions absorb and emit 

different levels of greenhouse gases. But 

there is a clear risk that a warming climate 

can lead the soil to release more greenhouse 

gases, which can further heat the climate in a 

self-reinforcing spiral.

Agriculture and forestry to 
keep the carbon underground

Climate change is not the only thing that 

risks turning soil from a carbon sink to a 

source of emissions. The way we use land 

can also have a clear influence on the 

amount of carbon that the soil can hold. 

Currently, the carbon stock of European 

forests is growing, due to changes in forest 

management and environmental changes. 

About half of that carbon stock is stored 

in forest soils. However, when forests are 

degraded or cleared, their stored carbon 

is released back to the atmosphere. In this 

case, forests may become net contributors of 

carbon to the atmosphere (23).

On farmland, ploughing the soil is known to 

accelerate decomposition and mineralisation 

of organic matter. In order to keep carbon 

and nutrients in the soil, researchers suggest 

reducing tillage, farming with complex crop 

rotations, using so-called ′cover crops′ and 

leaving crop residues on the surface of the 

soil (24). Leaving crop residue on the surface 

before and during planting operations 

can help to protect against the risk of soil 

erosion. Such protection is essential given 

that it can take thousands of years to form 

just a few centimetres of soil (25). Reduced 

tillage involves less breaking and turning of 

looked to the soil to protect homes. They 

the soil. However, reduced or no-till methods 

adopted a number of measures such as 

are often associated with higher use of 

planting cover crops in the winter when the 

chemical fertilisers, which can have other 

soil was bare and thus at risk of flooding. 

negative effects on the environment.

They also left crop residues on the field to 

reduce erosion. Such measures to restore 

Similarly, because organic agriculture uses 

natural systems have successfully prevented 

manure inputs, it can rebuild the soil′s 

muddy floods between 2002 and the present 

organic carbon deep below the soil surface. 

day, despite several heavy rainfall events.

Organic agriculture has the added benefit of 

cutting greenhouse gases because it does 

Flood regulation and prevention is just 

not use chemical fertilisers (26). The UN Food 

one of the vital ′services′ that healthy soil 

and Agriculture Organization calculates 
that CO2 emissions per hectare of organic 
agriculture systems are 48% to 66% lower 

delivers. We may come to increasingly rely 

on this service as extreme weather events 

such as floods become more frequent and 

than in conventional systems (27).

severe.

Interestingly, some forms of biofuel 

There are many other ways that the quality 

production may actually reduce the carbon 

of soil will dictate how climate change affects 

stored in the soil. A recent study found 

us. Permeable soil can also protect from 

that biofuels made from corn residue may 

heatwaves, by storing large amounts of 

actually increase greenhouse-gas emissions 

water and keeping temperatures down. This 

overall, because the organic matter is burnt 

latter point is particularly important in cities, 

as fuel rather than returned to the soil (28). 

where hard surfaces (soil sealing) can create 

the ′heat island effect′. 

Overall, the adoption of appropriate farming 

and forestry practices offers enormous 

Several European cities are trying to make 

potential for restoring the soil and removing 
CO2 from the atmosphere.

use of these soil functions. For example, 
Gomeznarro Park (30) in Madrid was 

Protecting cities with soil

restored to include new permeable surfaces, 

vegetation and underground water storage. 

This solution has been replicated elsewhere 

After homes in the Belgian village of Velm 

in Madrid and across Spain.

near Sint-Truiden were flooded with muddy 

water five times in 2002, the residents put 

pressure on the local municipality to do 

something (29). Floods of muddy water had 

become a recurring problem in the area as 

water ran off bare fields, carrying sediment 

with it. To solve this problem, authorities 

42

© EEA

43

Restoring ecosystems

If managed correctly, soil can help us to 

reduce greenhouse gases and adapt to 

The latest evidence is clear: restoring some 

the worst effects of climate change. But if 

ecosystems can actually help capture carbon 

we fail to care for the soil, we may quickly 

from the atmosphere. For example, actively 

exacerbate the problems connected to 

restoring peatlands has proved to be a 

climate change.

successful response to the loss of organic 

carbon that results from peat exploitation 

for energy use (31). The fastest way to 

increase organic carbon in farmed soil is to 

convert arable land to grassland, according 

to a study from the European Commission′s 

Joint Research Centre (32).

Unfortunately, some recent trends seem to 

be going in the opposite direction. Between 

1990 and 2012, the area of arable land, 

permanent crops, pastures, and semi-natural 

vegetation decreased in Europe (33). More 

concretely, ′land take′ in Europe resulted 

in a loss of 0.81% in arable-land productive 

capacity as fields were converted to towns, 

roads, and other infrastructure between 

1990 and 2006 (34). Such urban development 

projects often involve sealing the soil with 

an impervious layer. Food security concerns 

aside, this also means Europe has a reduced 

capacity to store organic carbon, prevent 

floods, and keep temperatures down (35). 

44

© Simona Ilascu, Environment & Me/EEA

45

Soil and climate change
Soil is an important and often neglected element of the climate system. It is the second largest carbon 
store, or ′sink′, after the oceans. Restoring key ecosystems on land, and a sustainable use of the land in 
urban and rural areas, can help us mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Currently, the carbon stock of European forests is growing, due to changes in forest management and 
environmental changes. About half of that carbon stock is stored in forest soils. However, when forests 
are degraded or cleared, their stored carbon is released back to the atmosphere. In this case, forests 
may become net contributors of carbon to the atmosphere.

Ploughing accelerates decomposition
and mineralisation, releasing more CO2 

Organic farming can reduce
CO2 emissions by 48–66% per hectare
compared to conventional farming

European forests have increased in area
by 19.5 million hectares since 1990 

Photosynthesis 
CO2

Damages resulting from storms, wind and 
snow are estimated to affect 0.4% of the 
forest area

Respiration, decomposition  
and mineralisation of  
organic matter CO2

Forest area affected by insects and 
diseases has doubled in Europe since 1990

Forest fires in Europe destroy around 
400 000 ha every year

Carbon transfer
to roots

Soil services:

CO2

Below-ground
carbon storage

It can take up to 1 000 years
to form 1 cm of soil

Permeable soil protects us from
heatwaves, especially in cities

Soil captures  
and stores carbon

Soil prevents  
and regulates flooding

Sources: EEA, 2015. European Environment — state and outlook 
2015: Forests, Soil; UNECE, 2015: Forests in the ECE region — trends 
and challenges in achieving the global objectives on Forests. ECE/
TIM/SP/37 FAO, 2002. Organic agriculture, environment and food 
security (www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e02b.htm); FAO, 
2015. Soil facts (www.fao.org/soils-2015).

Higher temperatures can make
the microbes work faster,
releasing more CO2

86

46

Soil stores, filters and transforms
nutrients, contaminants, and water

Soil hosts a quarter
of the world′s biodiversity

95% of world food is directly
or indirectly produced on soil 

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w
e
i
v
r
e
t
n

I

Holger Robrecht
Deputy Regional Director 
of ICLEI

Climate change and cities 

Most Europeans now live in cities, so the choices we make about urban infrastructure will 

have a large influence on how well we cope with climate change. More frequent rainfall, 

flooding, and heatwaves are likely to be among the challenges that Europe′s cities will face 

from climate change. We asked Holger Robrecht, Deputy Regional Director of ICLEI, what 

cities are doing to adapt to climate change. 

What effects will climate change 
have on cities?
Climate change will have a variety of effects 

Climate change places pressure on our 

′hard′ infrastructure such as roads, houses, 

and sewage systems. But it also places 

on cities. The most likely effects in Europe 

pressure on our ′soft′ infrastructure such as 

are an increase in extreme weather events 

our health systems. This is very evident in 

like flooding, storms, and heatwaves. 

events such as heatwaves, which are another 

This could have a serious effect on urban 

problem for urban areas. Cities create ′heat 

infrastructure such as transport systems, 

islands′ that are far warmer than rural areas. 

sewage systems, and even food-delivery 

Old people are especially at risk of mortality 

systems. In heavy rainfalls and floods, the 

in urban areas. This creates a new type of 

danger is that our drainage and sewage 

challenge for our health systems. 

systems cannot cope. We have seen an 

example of this during the rain storm in 

2011 in Copenhagen, which showed the 

disruption that can happen in heavy rainfalls. 

How are cities adapting to the 
challenge of climate change?
Many cities in Europe have very  

This storm led to flooding in houses, and 

forward-thinking adaptation plans, including 

it also damaged railways, roads, and the 

London, Copenhagen, Bratislava, and 

metro system. Heavy rainfalls can also cause 

Almada in Portugal. If I could highlight just 

landslides in mountains and hills outside 

three, they would be Rotterdam, Ghent, 

cities. These landslides can cut off roads, 

and Bologna. In the case of Rotterdam and 

making it difficult to deliver food and other 

Ghent, these cities partnered with research 

goods. We have already seen this happen 

organisations to assess the places in the cities 

in the Philippines and in Italy, in the Liguria 

that would be the hottest during heatwaves. 

region around Genoa. 

They decided to place thermometers in a 

variety of locations, and even placed mobile 

thermometers on trams. In this way, they 

could detect the places in the cities where the 

heat-island effect was greatest. As a result, 

they were able to take remedial actions, such 

as planting trees, to reduce the effects of 

some of these heat islands.

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Bologna adopted a very different approach. 

Bologna is an old medieval city at risk of 

flooding by the Po river. However, it is also 

affected by heavy rainfall and by heatwaves, 

What are the biggest challenges  
that cities face in dealing with 
climate-change problems?
Cities face a variety of challenges in adapting 

so they face a triple challenge. The city 

to climate change. Lack of knowledge 

government of Bologna developed a mobile 

may be the greatest challenge. Many city 

phone app, through which citizens detect 

governments do not know how their city 

and report any kind of damage in the city 

will be affected by climate change. Those 

that came from any event such as heavy 

cities that wish to take action to prepare 

rainfall or heatwave. The app also allows 

for climate change often don′t know what 

citizens to make suggestions to the city 

actions to take or how to organise their 

government on how to prepare for any 

response. And many cities are unaware  

future event that might happen. The app was 

that there is funding and advice available 

part of Bologna′s Blue AP adaptation plan 

across Europe. 

and received funding from the EU. 

Is adapting to climate change on the 
political agenda in Europe?
Yes. In recent years, climate change adaption 

These challenges are now being addressed. 

Some national governments have 

programmes in place to help their cities 

create adaptation plans. The UK government 

has grown greatly in importance. This is 

has a programme called UKCIP and the 

because so many areas in Europe have been 

German government has a programme 

affected by extreme events from climate 

called KomPass. At the EU-level, there is now 

change in the past decade. And the effects 

an EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate 

of these extreme weather events have often 

Change. And the EU has created a website 

been far worse than anybody would have 

called Climate-ADAPT, run by the European 

predicted ten years ago. For example, in 

Environment Agency. Climate-ADAPT helps 

2010 Cyclone Xynthia flooded many areas in 

cities, regions, and national governments 

coastal France and left almost million people 

learn about climate change adaptation. 

without electricity. Last year, Croatia and 

And there is a European-level organisation 

Serbia suffered heavy flooding from rainfalls. 

specifically established to help cities:  

And in early June last year, a prolonged 

Mayors Adapt. 

heatwave was followed by heavy rains that hit 

Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. 

At ICLEI, we organise conferences like  

The storm then moved into the Ruhr, leading 

the Bonn Resilient Cities conference  

to damages and floods between in the area 

and — together with the European 

Dusseldorf and Dortmund. Heatwaves have 

Environment Agency — the Open European 

been another great challenge in Europe, 

Day for supporting exchange between city 

with particularly warm summers in 2013 and 

practitioners. We also offer direct  

2014. These events have made governments 

climate-related services to cities. 

and cities aware of the necessity to adapt to 

climate change.

Finally, there are also funds available: the 

EU has set aside 20% of its budget to help 

cities and countries prevent — and adapt to 

— climate change. However, many cities are 

unaware of this funding. 

One of the more practical challenges that 

cities face is in organising their response 

across administrative levels. Climate change 

adaptation means making connections across 

administrative boundaries. For example, if 

you look at rivers that cross different cities, 

the responsibility for water management in 

the urban part of a river might not even lie 

with the city in question. Things can get even 

more complicated for rivers like the Rhine 

and the Danube that cross several countries. 

Therefore, flood protection related to these 

rivers means cities need to experiment with 

new types of governance between cities 

and countries. In the case of the river Rhine, 

Switzerland, France, Germany, and the 

Netherlands all came together in order to 

plan retention areas for flood water. Cities 

and countries will need to plan much more 

in this way in the future in order to adapt to 

climate change. 

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Mitigating climate change

2014 was the hottest year on record. It was also one more year in series of increasingly 

warm decades. To limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels and minimise 

the impacts of climate change, greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere need 

to be reduced substantially. Governments can set targets, but it is ultimately up to 

industry, businesses, local authorities, and households to take action. This action must 

aim to ensure that emissions are reduced, atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations 

stabilised, temperature rises halted, and climate change limited. 

In 2014, global temperatures were 0.69°C 

Due to their persistence in the atmosphere 

above the 20th century global average (36). 

and the non-localised effect of concentrations, 

Scientists agree that the warming is due 

the impacts these gases have on the earth′s 

to atmospheric greenhouse gases emitted 

climate are global issues. This means that a 

mainly as a result of anthropogenic 

global deal to mitigate emissions is paramount 

combustion of fossil fuels. This warming 

in preventing the continued acceleration of 

in turn causes climate change. Since 

climate change.

the industrial revolution, the amount 

of greenhouse gases present in the 

atmosphere has steadily been increasing.

A global deal on climate 
change

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide 
(CO2) and methane are released both 
naturally and as a result of human activity. 

Combustion of fossil fuels adds to naturally 
occurring CO2 in the atmosphere. Worldwide 
deforestation amplifies this phenomenon 
by reducing trees, which remove CO2 from 
the atmosphere. Meanwhile, agriculture and 

This year, the Conference of Parties (COP) (37) 

to the 1992 United Nations Framework 

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 

will meet in Paris to coordinate the 

latest step in the international political 

response to climate change. Building on 

two decades of negotiations, COP21 aims 

to achieve an ambitious, legally binding 

poorly managed landfill play a large role 

and global agreement on climate change 

in the release of methane. Furthermore, 

that will set targets on greenhouse-gas 

combustion of fossil fuels also leads to the 

emissions to which all countries should 

release to the atmosphere of air pollutants 

adhere. The agreement is also expected to 

such as nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, and 

include objectives and actions on climate 

particulate matter. Some of these pollutants 

change adaptation, focusing on vulnerable 

can also play a role in warming (or, in the 

developing countries in particular. 

case of aerosols, cooling) our climate.

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The European Union′s efforts to reduce 

by 80–95% by 2050 compared to 1990. 

greenhouse-gas emissions are working. 

The UNFCCC intends to publish a synthesis 

In fact, the EU is expected to meet its 

report of these pledges before COP21.

unilateral 20% reduction target (compared 

to 1990) ahead of the agreed 2020 deadline. 

To fulfil these commitments, governments 

Moreover, the EU intends to reduce domestic 

will need to develop and implement effective 

emissions by at least 40% by 2030 and 

policies. For example, the European Union′s 

further decarbonise its economy by 2050. 

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) (39) is 

But despite the EU′s decreasing emissions 

central to its mitigation efforts. It limits 

and its shrinking share of worldwide 

emissions from some 12 000 power stations 

emissions, global emissions continue to rise. 

and industrial plants across 31 countries 

Government policies and 
target setting

by setting a cap on the total amount of 

greenhouse gases they can emit, and this 

cap is reduced over time. The European 

Commission proposes that in 2030 ETS 

At COP15, held in Copenhagen in 2009, an 

emissions will be 43% lower than they were 

aspirational goal of limiting global warming 

in 2005. Companies buy and sell emissions 

to 2°C above pre-industrial levels was 

allowances, and after a year they must give 

agreed. COP21 intends to adopt a ′new 

back enough allowances to the authorities 

instrument′ that translates this limit into 

to cover all their emissions or else be 

actions to be implemented from 2020. 

subject to heavy fines. The scheme puts a 

Alongside adaptation to existing climate 

monetary value on carbon, benefitting those 

change, efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas 

that reduce their emissions. It also seeks to 

emissions and promote the transition 

encourage investment in clean, low-carbon 

towards resilient, low-carbon societies and 

technologies. 

economies should play a major role in this 

international agreement.

The signals conveyed by governments to 

polluters are clear: reducing emissions 

Prior to COP21, national governments are 

doesn′t just demonstrate environmental 

invited to publicly declare the actions they 

good will, it also makes good business sense. 

intend to commit to under the new global 

agreement — their Intended Nationally 

Determined Contributions (INDCs) (38).  

The European Union and its Member 

States have already submitted their 

INDCs, committing to reducing domestic 

greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 40% by 

2030 compared to 1990. This binding target 

will be achieved by the EU as a whole. This 

target is also in line with the EU objective to 

reduce its own greenhouse-gas emissions 

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Energy and materials use

Anything not needed in a certain process is 

recycled and transformed for use elsewhere. 

The environmental impact of industrial 

Waste products resulting from one process 

activity comes mainly from energy 

become the building blocks of a new one, 

consumption, chemical production 

and the whole system runs on energy from 

processes, and the use of resources in 

the sun.

industrial production. Until recently, it was 

assumed that greater economic prosperity 

Lifecycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly 

and growth were intrinsically linked with 

used to understand how such reuse and 

greater negative environmental impacts. 

recycling of energy and materials can 

However, in the last two decades, some 

contribute to emission reductions.  

developed countries have started breaking 

LCA considers total energy use and 

this link between economic growth and the 

emissions to air, water, and land as 

use of energy and materials. These countries 

indicators of potential environmental harm. 

have been using less material and energy to 

Incorporating LCA into decision-making can 

produce the same value of output, while also 

bring about environmental benefits and cost 

reducing the amount of carbon released per 

savings, while encouraging more economic, 

unit of energy. These phenomena  

and less-polluting alternatives.

of dematerialisation and decarbonisation 

have led to reductions in greenhouse-gas 

Other sectors must also play a role in future 

emissions. The technological and 

emissions reductions. The European Council 

behavioural drivers behind this decoupling 

has agreed to further reduce emissions 

can help developing countries to mitigate 

from sectors not covered by the ETS by 30% 

their emissions as their economies grow. 

compared to 2005. The EU′s Effort Sharing 
Decision (ESD) (40) establishes binding annual 

The energy supply industry traditionally 

targets for individual Member States until 

relied on the combustion of high-carbon 

2020 for all the emissions of these sectors, 

fossil fuels to generate electricity. However, 

such as transport, buildings, agriculture 

the ongoing switch in the short term to more 

and waste. Transport is the main source of 

efficient natural gas burning technology, 

emissions that is not covered by the EU-ETS. 

combined with the growth of renewable 

Emission reductions in the transport sector 

energy sources, points to a future where 

remain limited (41), while projected emissions 

this sector′s emissions continue to decline 

reductions under current policies in the 

beyond current targets. 

agricultural sector are also limited (42). 

In the manufacturing sector, lessons may 

be learnt from nature. Industrial ecology is 

a field of study that considers the parallels 

between industrial and natural systems, and 

suggests features that industry could adopt. 

For example, in nature no material is wasted. 

Cities and households must 
also play their part

Climate-change mitigation is not just about 

industry meeting or going beyond targets. 

At national, local, and individual levels we all 

have a role to play. Cities and households in 

particular need to act to reduce emissions.

Cities are on the frontline of the fight against 

climate change. In March 2015, leaders of  

30 European cities agreed to use their  

EUR 10 billion per year collective purchasing 

power to buy eco-friendly goods and services 

in emissions-heavy sectors such as transport, 

domestic heating, and energy supply (43). 

This initiative complements the Covenant 

of Mayors (44), a European movement 

within which local and regional authorities 

voluntarily commit to increase energy 

efficiency and the use of renewable energy 

resources on their territories. Currently 

numbering 6 279 signatories, its aim is to 

meet and exceed the EU′s 20% emissions 

reduction objective by 2020.

Households are also vital. Consumption 

patterns can affect emissions both directly 

and indirectly. Between 2000 and 2007, 

households increasingly purchased goods 

and services with reduced environmental 

pressures per Euro spent (45). In particular, 

more environmentally-friendly housing, 

water, transport, food, non-alcoholic 

beverages, electricity, and other fuels were 

purchased in this period. However, the 

increase in total expenditure in many of 

these consumption categories may have 

offset the gains. 

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Such changes in consumption, along with 

It is clear that emissions from economic 

improvements in production processes 

activities are closely linked to our 

and services, have resulted in reductions 

consumption patterns. Local authorities, 

in greenhouse-gas emissions across all 

households, and individuals can all exert 

consumption categories measured. However, 

pressure on existing production systems. 

further efficiency gains and a shift towards 

Reducing our consumption, and consuming 

less environmentally-intensive consumption 

products and services that have less severe 

are needed if global consumption overall 

impacts on the environment will cause a shift 

continues to increase. Moreover, the 

in the way these products and services are 

impact of European consumption of goods 

produced and sold. Ultimately, climate action 

manufactured outside the EU cannot be 

starts at home.

underestimated. 

From global targets to action 
on the ground 

Overall, the message is clear. A climate deal 

at COP21 is essential. It will go a long way to 

set targets for emissions reductions and to 

give clear indications about what needs to be 

done on both climate-change mitigation and 

adaptation. Agreeing on emission-reduction 

targets alone cannot halt climate change. 

To achieve such targets, well-designed, 

ambitious, and binding policies leading 

to emissions reductions are necessary. 

These policies should provide the catalyst 

for industry and households to reduce 

emissions throughout the production and 

consumption process. 

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Mitigating climate change
The European Union′s efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are working. In fact, the EU is expected 
to meet its unilateral 20% reduction target (compared to 1990) ahead of the agreed 2020 deadline. 
Moreover, the EU intends to reduce domestic emissions by at least 40% by 2030 and further decarbonise 
its economy by 2050. The EU currently emits around 10% of global greenhouse-gas emissions.

The international community has agreed to limit the global average temperature increase to 2°C above  
pre-industrial times. Scientific studies show that, to increase our chances of limiting the average temperature 
increase to 2°C, global emissions have to peak in 2020, and then start declining. Global emissions in 2050 
have to be 40 to 70% lower than in 2010 and they have to fall to near zero — or below — by 2100.

EU greenhouse-gas emissions and reduction targets,
excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

Peak around 2020

1990

Index 
100

50 

0 

2013
-19%

2020
-20%

2030
-40%

2050
-80% to -95%

EU greenhouse-gas emissions by sector, excluding LULUCF

Industry

19%

Transport     

20%

Energy sector

30%

13%

Buildings

10%

Agriculture

3%

Waste

5%

Other

50

40

30

20

10

40% reduction,
compared to 2010

70% reduction,
compared to 2010

World
greenhouse-gas
emissions

EU

F
C
U
L
U
L
g
n
d
u
l
c
n

i

i

l

,
t
n
e
a
v
i
u
q
e
-

O
C
f
o
s
e
n
n
o
t
a
g
G

i

2

1860

1900

1950

2000

COP21

2050

2100

Notes: (1) World GHG emissions 1860–1970 are estimated based on EDGAR data and “Global CO2 emissions,  
1860–2006” figure in climate change mitigation chapter of SOER 2010. (2) The EU long-term pathway on the right  
(in black) is only indicative as the EU target for 2050 excludes the net impact of LULUCF.

Sources: EEA, 2014. Annual EU greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2012 and inventory report 2014; EEA, 2010. Mitigating climate change - 
SOER 2010 thematic assessment; European Commission-Joint Research Centre, 2014. Global Emissions EDGAR v4.2 FT2012 (November 
2014); IPCC, 2014. Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC.
Read more: EEA Report ′Trends and projections in Europe′.

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Climate change and investments

Measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change are often considered to be expensive, 

and are seen as an additional burden on the economy. But European countries are already 

spending public and private funds on research, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, 

transport, urban development, social protection, health, and nature conservation. We 

can ensure that our existing expenditure on these areas favours climate-friendly and 

sustainable options that will help to create new jobs.

Climate change will affect us in a variety 

In order to prevent or minimise some of the 

of ways, whether through increased air 

future costs to our society, economy, and 

pollution, acidification of oceans, or flooded 

environment, we need to take action. This 

homes and fields. Some damage costs, such 

raises the following questions: how much do 

as economic loss due to damaged property 

we need to invest and in what areas?

from floods, are relatively easy to quantify 

in monetary terms. But other costs are 

Investing in infrastructure

more difficult to estimate. Can we put an 

accurate price tag on potential ill health or 

Worldwide, we are consuming increasingly 

future reductions in crop productivity due to 

more resources. We need more food, 

climate change? 

land, and water to feed a growing global 

population, and we need more energy 

Despite such difficulties and the 

to heat homes and to fuel our cars. Our 

uncertainties linked to climate change, the 

increasing levels of consumption are being 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

met by unsustainable production patterns, 

(IPCC) estimates the likely economic loss 

which deplete non-renewable resources. 

caused by just 2°C of global warming to be 

This also results in more pollutants being 

between 0.2–2% of global gross domestic 

released to the atmosphere, water bodies, 

product (GDP), even if strong adaptation 

and land. 

measures are taken. Once warming proceeds 
beyond this, the costs would rise further (46). 

The efforts to tackle climate change should 

be seen in the context of a broader transition 

Although we may not know the exact 

to a ′green economy′ — a sustainable way of 

amount, costs from climate change are real 

life that allows us to live well, while keeping 

and we are already paying for them in many 

our resource use within the sustainable 

ways, such as damaged property, medical 

limits of our planet. The European Union′s 

expenses, and reduced crop yields.

7th Environment Action Programme 

identifies ′investments′ as one of the key 

pillars enabling this transition. 

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Investments are critical in tackling climate 

change because the investment choices 

made today have long-term implications 

Decarbonising the energy and 
transport systems?

— both positive and negative — for how 

Combustion of fossil fuels is one of the key 

basic societal needs are met in the future. 

contributors to greenhouse-gas emissions 

One of the key ways that investments 

released into the atmosphere. Fossil fuels are 

can help to tackle climate change is 

also one of the key components of the global 

through infrastructure. Our societies build 

energy system, meeting our need for energy 

infrastructure to meet basic societal needs 

in our homes, offices, factories, and cars. 

such as water, energy and mobility. This 

infrastructure is often very costly and is 

A total shift from fossil fuels to sustainable 

used for decades. It is therefore crucial in 

renewable alternatives is not easy. It 

shaping the way we live. Some investment 

requires changes in the entire energy system 

decisions might provide real opportunities 

from production and storage to distribution 

to transform the way we meet these 

and final consumption. For example, the 

needs, while others risk locking us into 

electricity produced by solar panels should 

unsustainable practices for decades. 

be made available for use at a later date 

in another location, and possibly another 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 

country. This can only be achieved if  

has estimated that the world spends 

well-connected smart grids are in place. 

approximately EUR 4.8 trillion  

Other systems such as the transport system 

(USD 5.3 trillion) a year on energy subsidies, 
mainly on fossil fuels (47). The IMF′s definition 

will also need radical change. This will involve 

replacing the current fleet with electric 

of ′subsidies′ in the context of its recent 

vehicles, and creating new public transport 

report covers the unpaid costs of all the 

networks that can address the demand for 

environmental damage caused by fossil 

mobility by offering alternatives to driving 

fuels. In the same report, the IMF estimates 

in private cars. When taken altogether, the 

direct subsidies (i.e. government policies 

investment needs to bring about these 

underwriting oil, gas, and coal production or 

changes could be massive.

consumption) to amount to approximately 

EUR 460 billion globally (USD 500 billion). 

According to European Commission (48)

Such subsidies might result in unintended 

estimates, making the EU′s energy and 

outcomes, where long-term investment 

transport systems ′low carbon′ will require 

decisions concerning our energy 

around EUR 270 billion of additional public 

infrastructure continue to favour fossil fuels.

and private investment per year for the 

next 40 years. This additional amount 

corresponds to around 1.5% of EU GDP 

— similar to the IPCC′s climate change 

economic loss estimate of 0.2–2% of global 

GDP by 2050. So will investors act now to 

minimise future impacts?

Re-directing existing 
expenditure

Governments, businesses, and citizens 

are already spending money on building 

transport networks, power generation, 

housing, and consumption goods and 

services in the EU. Although it varies 

among the Member States, government 

spending in the EU is close to around 

50% of GDP (49). A part of this consists of 

investment expenditure (technically ′gross 

capital formation′) on areas such as large 

infrastructure projects, research, health 

services, etc. The same is true for household 

or business expenditure. 

So what kind of energy and mobility system 

we are going to build for the future? Are we 

going to lock our money into unsustainable 

solutions or are we going to create the space 

in which sustainable alternatives can grow 

and transform the way we meet our needs? 

Public funding can play an instrumental role 

here by providing incentives and sending 

′green′ signals to the market. For example, 

the decision to shift public funds from fossil 

fuels towards renewable energy generation 

would send a clear signal not only to energy 

producers, but also to researchers and 

energy users. 

In line with its Europe 2020 Strategy, the EU 

allocates nearly EUR 1 trillion for sustainable 

growth, jobs, and competitiveness in its 

multiannual budget for 2014–2020. At least 

20% of this multiannual budget will be spent 

on transforming Europe into a low-carbon 

and climate-resilient economy. To achieve 

this goal, climate objectives have been 

included in relevant EU policies and 

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programmes such as structural funds, 

Some sectors and communities will 

research, agriculture, maritime policy, 

undoubtedly be affected by this shift and 

fisheries, and the LIFE programme on nature 
conservation and climate action (50). 

re-channelling of funds towards sustainable 

alternatives. Governments will need to use 

unsustainable solutions in favour of 

With higher awareness levels, some 

communities and businesses are also 

deliberately divesting or opting out of 

These funds are complemented by public 

by this transition. Governments and 

social policies to support those affected 

supporting niche innovations. Investing in 

environmental innovation and research 

expenditure at national, regional, and local 

public authorities will also need to adjust 

would not only help the EU to adopt cleaner 

levels in the EU Member States, as well as by 

to changing realities. For example, a total 

technologies and build a sustainable future, 

private sector investments (e.g. businesses, 

divestment from fossil fuels would also imply 

it would also boost the EU′s economy and 

pension schemes, households). There 

reduced tax revenues and royalties from 

competitiveness. Europe can reap the 

are also global funding channels, such 

these sectors. It would also imply downsizing 

benefits of being a global leader in  

as the Green Climate Fund set up under 

in the affected sectors and likely job losses. 

eco-industries by exporting its technology 

the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework 

and know-how to help meet the anticipated 

Convention on Climate Change), aimed 

In some ways, change is already underway. 

growth in global demand in energy, mobility, 

at helping developing countries to adapt 

Despite the economic crisis that affected 

and housing. 

to climate change impacts and to adopt 

the European economy from 2008 onwards, 

mitigation measures.

eco-industries (e.g. renewable energy, 

It is true that a transition to a green economy 

The opportunity ahead

European Union continue to grow. Between 

lower will be the costs and the greater will be 

wastewater treatment, and recycling) in the 

will take time. But the earlier we act, the 

2000 and 2012, eco-industries grew by more 

the benefits. 

We know that we need to invest to meet 

than 50% in terms of value added and by 

growing demand in some areas. According to 

almost 1.4 million additional jobs to reach a 

the New Climate Economy report (51), global 

workforce of 4.3 million, while the rest of the 

energy use is projected to grow by between 

economy showed otherwise relatively flat 

20% and 35% in the next 15 years. To meet 

growth and stagnant employment rates in 

this demand, more than EUR 41 trillion will 

this period. This boom in eco-industry jobs 

be required between 2015 and 2030 for key 

could equally be seen as part of an evolving 

categories of energy infrastructure. Given that 

and competitive workforce, with fewer 

energy production and use already account for 

people working in unsustainable sectors  

two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, 

(e.g. coal extraction). 

the type of energy sources we invest today will 

largely determine whether we will succeed in 

limiting global warming to 2°C or not.

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Further reading

EEA sources
EEA report ′Europe′s environment — state and outlook 2015′ (SOER 2015) 

The Synthesis report; European briefings: in particular ′Climate change impacts and 

adaptation′, ′Mitigating climate change′, ′Soil′ and ′Agriculture′; Global megatrends: in 

particular ′Diverging population trends′, ′Intensified global competition for resources′, and 

′Increasingly severe consequences of climate change′; Cross-country comparisons: 

in particular ′Mitigating climate change′.

• EEA report on ′National adaptation policy processes in European countries′ (2014) 

• EEA report on ′Adaptation of transport to climate change in Europe′ (2014) 

• Environmental indicator report 2014

• EEA report ′State of Europe′s seas′ (2015)

• EEA report ′Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2012 and inventory 

report 2014′

• EEA report ′Trends and projections in Europe 2014′

• EEA indicators, in particular indicators on climate change, agriculture, energy, soil, and 

coasts and seas

• European Climate Adaptation Platform Climate-ADAPT 

External sources
• European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

• Mayors Adapt, an initiative of the European Commission to encourage adaptation in cities

• ICLEI, a global cities network that promotes sustainability in cities

• World Health Organization Europe 

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Environment & Me

The European Environment Agency invited European citizens to share their thoughts, 

concerns and views in a photography competition ′Environment & Me′. The EEA received 

more than 800 photographs, depicting a personal or a generic story, focusing on a wide 

range of environmental topics. A selection of the entries are used in Signals 2015, Europe′s 

Environment — state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) as well as in other EEA outputs. 

More information on Environment & Me is available at www.eea.europa.eu/competition. 

To view the finalists, please visit our Flick′r account at www.flickr.com/photos/

europeanenvironmentagency. 

68

© Giovanni Cultrera, Environment & Me/EEA

69

 
 
Endnotes

1  www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5

26  www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e02b.htm

2  www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/europe/climate-change-
impacts-and-adaptation (original source PESETA study 
by JRC)

3  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/overview-of-climate-

change-adaptation

4  climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu

27  www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e02b.htm 

28  www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n5/full/ncli-

mate2187.html 

29  www.teebweb.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/TEEB-
case-Changed-agro-management-to-prevent-muddy-
floods-Belgium.pdf

5  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-adaptation-

30  http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/viewmeasure?ace_

policy-processes

measure_id=3401 

6  www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/276117/
Implementing-Euro-Framework-Action-protect-health-
climate-change-en.pdf?ua=1

31  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/adaptation-in-europe

32  http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/Themes/SOC/

CAPRESE

7  www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/276102/
Improving-environment-health-europe-en.pdf?ua=1

33  www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/europe/land

8  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/marine-messages

34  www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/europe/soil 

9  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/marine-messages

35  http://globalsoilweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/

10  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/state-of-europes-seas

GSW_factsheet_Sealing_en.pdf

36  www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12

11  www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-

shetland-12180743

37  www.cop21.gouv.fr/en

12  www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_

38  unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php

SPM_FINAL.pdf

13  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/marine-messages

14  wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/baltic/

39  http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/index_en.htm

40  http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort/index_en.htm

threats/eutrophication

41  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/trends-and-projec-

15  www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/

climate-change-likely-worsen-us-and-global-dead-zones

42  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/trends-and-projec-

tions-in-europe-2014

16  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.

php/Agricultural_production_-_crops

17  http://e360.yale.edu/feature/soil_as_carbon_store-

house_new_weapon_in_climate_fight/2744

18  http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/projects/soil_atlas/

Download.cfm

tions-in-europe-2014

43  www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/full-
text-of-climate-change-statement-signed-by-26-europe-
an-mayors

44  www.covenantofmayors.eu/index_en.html

45  www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/trends-

in-share-of-expenditure-1/assessment

19  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-

vulnerability-2012

46  https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_

20  www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0100e/a0100e07.htm 

21  www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/water-

SPM_FINAL.pdf

47  www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf

retention-3/assessment

48  http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/index_

en.htm

22  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-

vulnerability-2012

23  www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-

vulnerability-2012

49  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&i

nit=1&language=en&pcode=tec00023&plugin=1

50  http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/synthesis/

report/7-visiontotransition

24  http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/Themes/SOC/

CAPRESE

51  http://newclimateeconomy.report

25  www.fao.org/docrep/t0389e/t0389e02.htm 

70

© Václav Matoušek, Environment & Me /EEA

71

EEA Signals 2015

The European Environment Agency (EEA) 

publishes Signals annually, providing 

a snapshot of issues of interest to the 

environmental debate and the wider public. 

Signals 2015 focuses on climate change. 

Our climate is changing. Global average 

temperatures are increasing, sea levels are 

rising, precipitation patterns are changing, 

and extreme weather events are becoming 

more frequent and severe. In a series of 

short articles and interviews, Signals 2015 

presents an overview of what causes 

climate change and what climate change 

means for human health, the environment, 

and the economy. 

European Environment Agency

Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark

Tel: +45 33 36 71 00
Web: eea.europa.eu
Enquiries: eea.europa.eu/enquiries

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