REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL concerning short-term statistics as required by Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of 19 May 1998
Date: 2014-06-26
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU statistics, cyclical fluctuation, data collection, data transmission, economic statistics, statistical method













EUR-Lex - 52014DC0381 - EN











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52014DC0381

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL concerning short-term statistics as required by Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 /* COM/2014/0381 final */









1.                      
Introduction
European
short-term statistics (STS) describe the most recent
developments in European economies in four major areas: industry, construction,
retail trade and services (excluding financial services). For each area,
short-term statistics provide a series of indicators such as production,
turnover, output prices (often also referred to as producer prices), number of
persons employed, hours worked, gross wages and several others. The legal basis
of short‑term statistics is Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/1998[1], as amended (hereinafter the
‘short-term statistics Regulation’).
Under Article
14(2) of the Regulation: 
The Commission
shall, by 11 August 2008 and again every three years thereafter, submit a
report to the European Parliament and the Council on the statistics compiled
pursuant to this Regulation and in particular on their relevance and quality
and the revision of indicators. The report shall also specifically address the
cost of the statistical system and the burden on business arising from this
Regulation in relation to its benefits. It shall report on best practices for
lessening the burden on business and shall indicate ways of reducing the burden
and costs.
The present
report follows up on the reports submitted in June 2008 and June 2011 pursuant
to the above Article[2].
Section 2
outlines the uses of short-term statistics and their relevance for key European
policies and the steering of European monetary policy. It also indicates major
developments in short-term statistics since the last quality report in June
2011.
Section 3
describes in greater detail the different quality aspects of short-term
statistics. 
Section 4
presents the cost and burden involved in the collection and processing of data
for short-term statistics, and some examples of how Member States have been
able to reduce these.
The last section
provides an outlook on future developments in short-term statistics.
Overview of
short-term statistics and most important developments
The compiling of
short-term statistics was an important factor enabling the establishment of the
euro area and the monitoring of European monetary policy[3].
Of the initial 22 principal European economic indicators (PEEIs)[4]
developed to monitor the economic development of the European Union and its
Member States and in particular to conduct monetary policy in the euro area,
eight are provided by short-term statistics: industrial production, industrial
output prices on the domestic market, industrial import prices, production in
construction, volume of retail trade and repair, turnover in services
(excluding retail trade services) (other) services, service output prices and
building permits.
The European
Central Bank and national central banks are among the most important users of
short-term statistics. Other important users are the European Commission,
national governments, research institutes, businesses and business
organisations. News releases about short-term statistics generally attract wide
attention in the media. Short-term statistics also provide important input for
other statistical areas such as national accounts. 
Short-term
statistics rank among the most important statistics produced by the Statistical
Office of the European Union (Eurostat). They are most commonly used for
economic trend analysis, forecasting and modelling, but are also required for
the preparation of policy decisions, research purposes, checking and validating
data from other sources and as a basis for business decisions (e.g. in market
research). Results from short-term statistics may also be used by businesses
for various other purposes (e.g. use of output price indices for indexing
contracts).
A number of
changes have taken place since the last quality report on short-term statistics
was adopted in June 2011. With Commission Regulation (EU) No 461/2012 of 31 May
2012[5],
the collection of data on industrial new orders was discontinued and the last
news release on these was published on 22 February 2012, with data for December
2011. Such data had originally been intended to provide a leading indicator and
an early indication of the development of industrial production. However, its
predictive capacity proved to be rather limited at European level and the
European Statistical System Committee decided that compulsory data collection
for industrial new orders variables at European level should be stopped.
In March 2012, a
new seasonal adjustment method was introduced for European short-term
statistics. The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to make the data for
different months or quarters directly comparable by eliminating seasonal
effects such as a drop in industrial production during the summer holidays or
an increase in retail trade turnover before Christmas. As from reference year
2012, Eurostat changed to an indirect seasonal adjustment method whereby
national data series are first seasonally adjusted and then used, as weighted
averages, to produce European aggregates. In the past, Eurostat used a direct
approach for short-term statistics, i.e. unadjusted national data were aggregated
to the European level, which was then seasonally adjusted. The new method
guarantees the consistency of the European and national aggregates and is also
in line with the seasonal adjustment guidelines of the European Statistical
System (ESS).
In October 2012,
short‑term statistics became subject to the ESS guidelines on revision
policy. European aggregates of the eight short-term PEEIs and in retail trade
are now revised and released only once a month. The dates are announced in
advance in the short-term statistics release calendar[6].
National data continue to be updated immediately new information becomes
available.
In early 2013,
the short-term indices were rebased from 2005 to 2010. This involved updating
the weights used for calculating the European aggregates so as to reflect the
economic structure of 2010 (rebasing) and an arithmetical change of the
reference year (average 100 in 2010 instead of 2005).
As of 2013,
quarterly data for hours worked and gross wages and salaries have been
available for retail trade and repair and for other services. The legal basis
for this was Commission Regulation (EC) No 329/2009[7].
Scope and
quality of short-term statistics indicators
Scope and compliance with the short-term statistics
Regulation
Member States’
compliance with the short-term statistics Regulation, in terms of reliability,
timeliness, coherence and comparability, is monitored by Eurostat every six
months and shows a high level of compliance and constant improvement. On the
basis of the various quality aspects outlined in the European Statistics
Code of Practice[8],
a comprehensive compliance score covering all indicators is calculated for each
country. As of 1 October 2013, the EU-28 average score was 9.6 (out of 10)
– the same as of 1 April 2013. Most Member States are now either fully
compliant or close to full compliance with the Regulation.
Accuracy, reliability, coherence and comparability
The short-term
statistics Regulation and related acts have introduced a set of common
definitions for short-term statistics applied by all Member States. Eurostat
and the national statistical offices work together in order to ensure high
accuracy, reliability and coherence of the short-term statistics indicators.
The methodological framework established by the Regulation is continuously
improved by consultations of technical experts and of special thematic task
forces. 
It should be
noted that methodologies do not have to be identical across Member States. In
keeping with the principle of subsidiarity and in order to take account of
national differences, e.g. as regards size, economic structure and availability
of administrative data, the short-term statistics Regulation leaves Member
States free to decide on the most efficient and effective ways of collecting
and processing data.
Eurostat also
works together with other international organisations, especially the OECD, in
order to increase the comparability of data and methods beyond the European
Union.
Timeliness and punctuality
For short-term
statistics, the early availability of data is of central importance. Therefore,
the short-term statistics Regulation sets relatively short deadlines for the
delivery of national data to Eurostat[9].
Table 1 shows the current deadlines for data transmission to Eurostat (third
column) and the target dates set by the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC)
in its most recent report on information requirements in the European Monetary
Union. The last column indicates the current deadlines for dissemination (e.g.
via news releases).
In general, the
timeliness of short-term statistics can be considered very good. Any delay is
usually due to the target delivery day falling on a weekend or a public
holiday. 
Users are
informed about news release publication dates well in advance by means of the news
release calendar on the Eurostat website[10]. In past
years, all dates announced in the calendar have been met.
Table 1:
Timeliness – days between end of reference period and delivery deadline, STS
Regulation, EFC target and actual dissemination of EU aggregates (situation May
2013)
 Indicator || Periodicity || STS Regulation deadlines a) || EFC targets for 2013 b) || Dissemination of EU totals c) 
 Industrial production || Monthly || 40 || 40 || 44 
 Industrial output prices of the domestic market || Monthly || 35 || 35 || 33 
 Industrial import prices || Monthly || 45 || 45 || 37 
 Production in construction || Monthly || 45 || 45 || 47 
 Building permits || Quarterly || 90 || 90 || 89 
 Turnover in retail trade and repair || Monthly || 30 || 30 || 36 
 Turnover in (other) services || Quarterly || 60 || 60 || 65 
 Service output prices || Quarterly || 90 || 90 || 91 
a)
  Deadlines for the transmission of data to Eurostat under the short‑term
statistics Regulation; for smaller countries, longer deadlines often apply.
b)
  Targets set in the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) 2013 Status
Report on information requirements on EMU.
c)
  Days between end of reference period and dissemination (e.g. news release,
data release). Some delays caused by holidays in May (the reference month).
Revisions of short-term statistics indicators 
First results of
short-term indicators are based partly on preliminary, estimated and incomplete
data. Following the first data release, survey results often improve, because
late respondents’ input has been added. Data are revised for a whole range of
other reasons, including seasonal adjustment, benchmarking, new and/or improved
data sources, and corrections of errors or methodological changes, but the
revisions are generally rather limited in scale, especially at the aggregated
EU level and for the euro area.
In order to
assess the quality of the first results of the four short-term statistics
indicators published monthly in a news release, changes between first and
second publications of monthly growth rates were analysed for 2011-13.
Table 2:
Scale of revision for the four principal short-term statistics indicators,
2011-13 a)
 1 || 2 || 3 || 4 || 5 
   || Average revision b) || Average absolute revision c) || Average absolute growth rate || Relative average revision d) 
 Industrial production || 0.1 || 0.2 || 0.7 || 0.2 
 Industrial output prices of the domestic market || 0.0 || 0.0 ||   0.4 || 0.1 
 Production in construction || 0.0 || 0.7 || 1.5 || 0.4 
 Volume of retail trade || 0.0 || 0.2 || 0.6 || 0.4 
a)
  Seasonally adjusted growth rates of indicators for the euro area.
b)
  Differences between growth rates at second and first publication, 2011-13
average.
c)
  Absolute differences between growth rates at second and first publication,
2011-13 average.
d)
  Ratio between absolute revision (3rd column) and absolute growth rate at
second publication (4th column), 2011-13 average. Differences due to rounding
errors.
Table 2 shows,
for the euro-area aggregates of the four indicators subject to a news release,
the average scale of revisions of growth rates between the first and the second
publication one month later (second column). This is close to zero, which means
that upwards and downwards revisions of the growth rates almost cancel each
other out, i.e. there is no systematic bias to over- or under-estimating
results.
In absolute
terms (third column), the average revisions vary between almost zero for
industrial output prices and 0.7 percentage points for production in
construction. The differences across indicators are explained mainly by
methodological factors. While industrial output prices are often not revised at
all, production indicators might be revised several years after their first
publication. 
Average growth
rates (in absolute terms at second publication) are indicated in column 4. The
last column shows the relationship between the revision of the growth rate and
the growth rate itself (at the time of the second publication). This helps us
assess more accurately the magnitude of the revisions, since it makes a
difference whether a revision of 0.2 percentage points, for example, is
applied to a relatively high or a relatively low growth rate.
Accessibility, clarity and availability of metadata
All short-term
statistics results are freely accessible on the Eurostat website. The special
section dedicated to short-term statistics can be accessed under ‘Industry,
trade and services’ or via the search function[11].
In the area of
short-term statistics, Eurostat publishes 48 news releases a year, i.e. monthly
releases for four principal indicators (industrial production, industrial
output prices, production in construction and volume of retail trade). In past
years, all news releases have been published according to schedule. Moreover,
since the last quality report on short-term statistics in 2011, seven issues of
Statistics in focus have been published which, apart from providing
quantitative data, deal with selected methodological issues and analyse current
economic trends.
Comprehensive,
targeted and detailed explanations of methodological issues (metadata) are also
made available, partly in Statistics in focus (see above) and also on
the Eurostat website. Concise explanations of statistical concepts are
published in Statistics Explained, a wiki-style online dictionary. The
‘STS sources’ database provides detailed information on statistical processes,
legal questions, confidentiality rules, data quality and national data collection
methods. For a number of key indicators, additional detailed methodological
explanations are also available (PEEIs in focus)[12].

Costs to the
statistical system and burden on businesses 
The costs (for
statistical systems, of collecting, processing and disseminating data) and
burden (on the enterprises providing the data) relating to short-term
statistics can be measured only imperfectly. Samples are organised differently
across Member States, which makes comparisons difficult. Also, the production of
short-term statistics cannot be fully separated from other statistics and there
is often no clear method for ascribing costs and burdens to specific types of
statistics (e.g. data collected via a survey for short-term statistics will
also be used for national accounts). Finally, the methods used to collect cost
and burden data (e.g. via a separate survey, in combination with existing
surveys or using expert estimates) differ between Member States.
A tentative
calculation of the burden on an average business (stemming mainly from
answering questionnaires) is presented in Table 3 for the eight PEEIs in
question. For ease of comparison, the burden is calculated as minutes per
month, even for the quarterly indicators. 
As Table 3
indicates, there are considerable differences between countries, with the
burden ranging from almost non-existent to two hours a month to fill in a
questionnaire. Zero burden usually indicates that data are not collected via a
short-term statistics questionnaire, but taken from other sources (often
administrative VAT sources) or produced by other methods (e.g. combining
other statistics).
Table 3:
Average, highest and lowest national values of the burden (minutes per month)
on a business replying to a questionnaire in 2012 (EU-27)
   || Burden 2012 (minutes per month) 
   || Average, unweighted || Maximum || Minimum 
 Industrial production || 20 || 76 || 0 
 Industrial output prices || 19 || 120 || 1 
 Industrial import prices || 16 || 65 || 3 
 Production in construction || 21 || 115 || 0 
 Building permits || 7 || 40 || 0 
 Volume of retail sales || 8 || 15 || 0 
 Turnover in (other) services || 5 || 13 || 0 
 Service output prices || 12 || 47 || 2 
Table 4:
Development of statistical burden on enterprises and of national statistical
institutes’ costs (2009‑12)
   || Number of Member States where 
   || burden increased || burden decreased || burden did not change || comparison not possible 
 Industrial production || 6 || 10 || 3 || 8 
 Industrial output prices || 8 || 11 || 4 || 4 
 Industrial import prices || 4 || 4 || 2 || 17 
 Production in construction || 3 || 13 || 6 || 5 
 Building permits || 3 || 5 || 10 || 9 
 Volume of retail sales || 3 || 6 || 3 || 15 
 Turnover in (other) services || 5 || 13 || 4 || 5 
 Service output prices || 5 || 14 || 3 || 5 
   || Number of Member States where 
   || costs increased || costs decreased || costs did not change || comparison not possible 
 Industrial production || 5 || 13 || 3 || 6 
 Industrial output prices || 8 || 12 || 4 || 3 
 Industrial import prices || 8 || 4 || 3 || 12 
 Production in construction || 8 || 11 || 4 || 4 
 Building permits || 7 || 10 || 4 || 6 
 Volume of retail sales || 4 || 7 || 4 || 12 
 Turnover in (other) services || 6 || 13 || 3 || 5 
 Service output prices || 13 || 8 || 2 || 4 
For a number of
Member States, burden estimates are available for 2009 and 2012. Table 4
indicates the number of countries in which the average monthly burden on
reporting businesses increased, decreased or remained unchanged (the last
column indicates the number of countries for which 2009 and/or 2012 data are
not available). The lower part of the table provides the corresponding
information for statistical institutes’ costs in producing the various
indicators. In general, the average reductions in the burden and the costs
outweighed any increases. It should also be noted that the reported scale of
the burden and cost decreases was in many cases larger than the burden and cost
increases. As a result, an improvement of the burden and cost situation for the
EU as a whole can be assumed. 
The general
decrease in the statistical burden on enterprises can be explained by smaller
sample sizes in the majority of Member States, for most short-term statistics
indicators. In addition, statistical data are nowadays more often collected via
electronic surveys and the internet, which also involves lower costs and
burdens as compared with traditional collection methods, such as postal
questionnaires. Moreover, statistical offices appear to rely more on
administrative data, i.e. data already available from tax or employment
administrations, social insurance bodies or building authorities. 
While the use of
existing administrative sources for statistical purposes reduces the burden on
businesses, it may lead to higher costs within statistical offices, as data
might have to be adjusted. As administrative data often do not directly fit the
statistical concepts of short-term statistics, adjustments are necessary and
these can affect the quality of the data. Also, the use of administrative data
also requires continuous coordination, especially where countries have
decentralised administrations. 
Finally, the use
of administrative data as input for short-term statistics poses a challenge,
especially for the monthly indicators, where the requirements in terms of
timeliness and short deadlines are very demanding. Administrative data are
often collected less frequently than required for short-term statistics and/or
become available too late. A project under the Programme for the Modernisation
of European Enterprise and Trade Statistics (MEETS)[13]
provided financial support for analysing and improving the use of
administrative data for statistical purposes, including company accounts, and
helping Member States move from statistical surveys towards the use of
administrative data while ensuring high data quality. The project was concluded
in mid-2013[14].
Future
developments in short-term statistics
Between 2000 and
2012, the share of industry and construction in all economic activity dropped
from 27.3 % to 24.7 %. Over the same period, the share of market services
(excluding banking and insurance) increased from 43.2 % to 45.5 %[15].
The high and increasing economic importance of the service sector is, however,
not adequately reflected in current short-term statistics. In general, service
indicators have a more limited coverage, are less detailed and are published
less frequently than data for industry and construction (see annex).
In order to
improve the coherence of the various European business statistics and to
optimise the ratio of benefits to costs and burden for their production, the
intention is to harmonise and connect these statistical domains more closely by
means of a Framework Regulation Integrating Business Statistics (FRIBS). A
thorough review of short-term statistics is also envisaged in this context. 
In 2011,
Eurostat launched an intensive consultation of all key users and national
producers of short-term statistics in order to assess ways of improving the
short-term statistics indicators relating to service industries.
Notwithstanding some concerns about a possible increase in cost and burden, the
consultation showed a broad consensus on the need for improvement in this area.
Taking into account users’ and producers’ comments, the Commission plans to
propose changes to the current Regulation to ensure the relevance of short-term
statistics in view of the increasing economic importance of services in
European economies, while fully taking into account concerns as to increasing
cost and burden for their production. 
[1]               OJ L 162 of 5.6.1998, p. 1.
[2]               COM(2008) 340 final, 9.6.2008 and COM(2011) 329
final, 8.6.2011. There was also a quality report in 2003: COM(2003) 36 final,
29.1.2003.
[3]               Statistical requirements of the European Central
Bank in the field of General Economic Statistics, European Central Bank,
August 2000.
[4]               The original list of PEEIs was established in 2002
(Communication of the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on
Eurozone Statistics, 27.11.2002, COM(2002) 661 final).
[5]               OJ L 142, 1.6.2012, p. 26.
[6]               The short-term statistics release calendar can be
downloaded at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/short_term_business_statistics/introduction.
[7]               OJ L 103, 23.4.2009, p. 3.
[8]               The European Statistics Code of Practice is available
at:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/quality/code_of_practice.
[9]               The original deadlines in Regulation (EC) No 1165/98
concerning short-term statistics were further shortened by Regulation (EC) No
1158/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council of
6 July 2005 (OJ L 191, 22.7.2005, p. 1).
[10]             http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/release_calendars/news_releases.
Note that this calendar covers a large number of European indicators, not only
from short-term statistics.
[11]             http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/short_term_business_statistics/introduction.
[12]             The STS sources and the PEEIs in focus reports
are available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/short_term_business_statistics/methodology.
[13]             Decision No 1297/2008/EC of the European Parliament and
of the Council of 16 December 2008 on a Programme for the Modernisation of
European Enterprise and Trade Statistics (MEETS), OJ L 340, 19.12.2008, p. 76.
[14]             The deliverables produced are available at http://www.cros-portal.eu/content/admindata-sga-3.

[15]             Gross added value at basic prices, Eurostat, National
Accounts, data code: [nama_nace10_k].
Annex:
Short-term statistics indicators (Principal European Economic Indicators in
bold), Q – quarterly indicator, M – monthly indicator
 Industry          || Construction || Retail trade & repair || Other services 
 Industrial production (M) || Production in construction (M/Q)   Building construction   Civil engineering || - || - 
 Industrial turnover (M)   Domestic industrial turnover   Non-domestic industrial (euro area and non-euro area) || - || Turnover in retail trade & repair (M) || Turnover in (other) services (Q) 
 - || Building permits (Q)   Number of dwellings   m2 of useful floor area || - || - 
 Number of persons employed (Q) || Number of persons employed (Q) || Number of persons employed (Q) || Number of persons employed (Q) 
 Hours worked (Q) || Hours worked (Q) || Hours worked (Q) || Hours worked (Q) 
 Gross wages and salaries (Q) || Gross wages and salaries (Q) || Gross wages and salaries (Q) || Gross wages and salaries (Q) 
 Industrial output prices (M)   Domestic output prices   Non domestic output prices (euro area and non-euro area) || Construction output prices / construction costs (Q) || Volume of retail trade (M) || Output prices of (other) services (Q) 
 Industrial import prices (M) (euro area and non-euro area) || - || - || -