REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of the financial resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008
Date: 2013-07-29
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: agricultural production, agricultural statistics, climate change, crop yield, information system, meteorology, remote sensing, satellite













EUR-Lex - 52013DC0553 - EN











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52013DC0553

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of the financial resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 /* COM/2013/0553 final */









REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
on the implementation of the remote
sensing applications and on the use of the financial resources made available
to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008

1.           Introduction
Detailed information on the use of
agricultural land and the conditions of arable crops is essential to the
quality of yield and agricultural production forecasts. Such information is of
particular use for market monitoring and the management of related market measures
under the single Common Market Organisation. In this context, the European
Union has made substantial efforts to develop and improve innovative
technologies and models specifically related to remote-sensing applications.
The experience accumulated has shown that remote-sensing provides independent
information of high quality which cannot be obtained from traditional
agricultural statistics and forecasting systems. 
Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 [1] provides the legal framework for these remote-sensing activities
for the period 2008-2013.
The remote-sensing applications supported under
this framework provide useful information to the Commission, to interested
Member States, to research institutes and to other users, through the
dissemination of different products. Since its creation, the system has been
continuously improved. Additionally to the primary objective of producing yield
and harvest forecasts, the system also provides useful insights into other
fields relevant to EU agriculture such as climate change.
Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 provides
that the Commission shall submit a final report no later than 31 July 2013 on
the implementation of the remote-sensing measures and on the use of the
financial resources made available to it under the Regulation. This report is
drawn up in view of a continuation of these measures within the framework of
the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) beyond 31 December 2013.
The report elaborates on a possible scenario
for continuation of the existing MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System for the EU
and of an extension to a wider global coverage with the objectives of further
improving yield forecasts for the EU and of contributing to the international
initiatives launched by G20 agricultural ministers.
2.           The MARS Crop Yield
Forecasting System 
The Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) started in 1988 as a
10-year pilot project to produce crop yield and harvest forecasts. The
activity, which was then called Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing
(abbreviated MARS), concentrated on the assessment of crop yields and
production volumes of various crops within the EU, on the basis of
meteorological analysis, agro-meteorological simulated crop growth indicators,
low-resolution satellite data and statistical analysis.
From 1999 onwards this activity was carried out
under the legal basis of Decision 1445/2000/EC[2] for the
period 1999-2003 and its extension for the period 2004-2007 with Decision
2066/2003/EC[3]. Since 2008 and until 2013, the activity is implemented under
Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008. The MCYFS is operated within the AGRI4CAST Action
in the Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) of the Joint Research
Centre (JRC).
The MCYFS is a complex, integrated analysis
tool addressing the objectives set in the Regulation, more specifically the
monitoring of crop conditions, yields and agricultural production. 
The system consists of several independent
modules, which are integrated to monitor crop behaviour and to produce crop
yield forecasts. From a technical point of view, the MCYFS includes: 1) the
maintenance of a meteorological database (see Article 1(2)(a) of the
Regulation); 2) the application of agro-meteorological models (see Article
1(2)(d)); 3) the processing of low resolution satellite data (see Article
1(2)(a)); 4) statistical analyses and yield forecasts of the main crops at
national level across the EU (see Article 1(2)(b)) as well as visualization
tools. The MCYFS is run operationally covering the whole European Continent,
the Maghreb countries and Turkey. The crops covered by the simulation models
are soft wheat, durum wheat, winter and spring barley, grain maize, rapeseed,
sunflower, potato, sugar beet, pasture, rice, and other cereals.
(1) Meteorological database
Meteorological data are collected from
meteorological stations throughout Europe, then quality checked and further
processed, and finally analysed. As such this meteorological database can be
used to trigger risk warnings (e.g. detection of abnormal weather conditions during
a given month). Furthermore weather forecast data from the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are analysed to prepare outlooks on weather
conditions affecting agricultural land.
(2) Agro-meteorological models used for crop
growth simulation
Agro-meteorological models are run to convert
the meteorological data into estimations on crop biomass production. The tools
used are the Crop Growth Monitoring System (the World Food Study model - WOFOST
- adapted to the European scale), the pasture model LINGRA and the rice model
WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model).
Additional information, such as soil
parameters, crop calendars, crop practices and crop parameters, is utilised to
produce the simulations. At this level, many crop specific indicators/predictors
(e.g. potential biomass) are produced and transferred to the statistical
analysis for the production of quantitative yield forecasts. These elements
also contribute to the assessment of crop conditions (Article 1(1)(b) of the
Regulation). Outputs include maps indicating extreme temperature at a given
crop stage, simulations of biomass and grain production, estimations of actual
soil moisture reserve, the crop development stage in a given month, and the
divergence from the long-term average at a given decade or period within the
growing season for any agro-meteorological indicator.
(3) Low resolution satellite data
Remote-sensing applications feed into the
system at all the levels and contribute to improve the agricultural forecasting
models as well as to establish regionally-based models. Information from
meteorological satellites is used in addition to the data delivered by
meteorological stations (e.g. radiation measured by satellites at the
resolution level of 5 km). The remote-sensing information is processed to
produce “measured” vegetation indicators, which can be compared with the
agro-meteorological indicators and used for the statistical analysis. Low to
medium resolution satellite sensors are utilised: SPOT Vegetation/NOAA-AVHRR
(about 1 km resolution) and MODIS (about 300-500 m resolution)[4].
(4) Statistical analysis
The indicators obtained from the meteorological
database, the agro-meteorological database and the remote sensing database are
compared to the yield time series and analysed with statistical methods (e.g.
regression or scenario analysis). The final results are quantitative yield
forecasts which, together with the analysis of the abovementioned outputs, are
published in the MARS bulletins. Data available in the system cover a long
period of time, starting in 1975.
(5) Visualization tools and dissemination of
outputs
The databases (meteorological information,
agro-meteorological information, remote-sensing information) can be explored by
users via information tools. AGRI4CAST maintains a web portal where
remote-sensing data can be screened and downloaded and a portal where the
meteorological and agro-meteorological information can be viewed and downloaded
in the form of electronic maps. It is also possible to download the analysis on
crop conditions and yield estimates. All elements listed above are utilised for
the preparation of bulletins and specific studies on climatic conditions (see
Article 1(2)(c)). They provide the analyses of the crop situation in different
regions of the EU, maps of weather and crop indicators and yield expectations.
The MARS Bulletin is published regularly during the main growing season on
paper and on the internet.
3.           Implementation 
3.1.        Overall
implementation 
For the continuation of
the operational services from 2008 until 2013 according to Council Regulation
(EC) No 78/2008, a new project, called MARSOP3, has been launched. It focuses
on the provision of operational near-real time products to the JRC for the
monitoring of agricultural production and yield in Europe. In August 2007 a
call for tender (Operational activities for MARS actions -MARSOP3- 2008-2013,
Contract Notice N° 2007/S 154-191094) was published in the supplement of the Official
Journal of the European Union. After the evaluation of the offer for Lot I
(meteorological data) and Lot II (acquisition and processing of satellite data)
and the favourable opinion of the Public Procurement Advisory Group, a contract
was signed with a consortium led by Alterra BV. On the basis of the operational
products delivered within this contract, the JRC analyses crop conditions and
prepares yield and production estimates. This information is made available to
the Member States and the general public. 
3.2.        Implementation with regard
to Article 1 of Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008
Article 1 of Council
Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 sets the objectives for the implementation of
remote-sensing measures (Article 1(1)) and provides details on the measures to
be undertaken (Article 1(2)). For ease of reference, the description of the
implementation of the measures follows the structure of Article 1.
3.2.1.     Aims of the implemented
measures (Article 1(1))
Article 1(1)(a):
management of agricultural markets
The activity delivers independent, timely,
scientific and traceable crop yield forecasts for all Member States and EU
neighbouring countries for selected arable crops. This information is utilised
by the Commission services for the following main purposes: 1) update of crop
supply balance sheets; 2) assessment of climatic conditions and potential
impacts of particular weather events in the Member States or regions (e.g.
impact of a late frost event); 3) monitoring of crop conditions in third
countries. AGRI4CAST yield forecasts are also provided to the Early Estimate System
of Eurostat. Independence and reliability of the outputs prepared by AGRI4CAST
are viewed as important assets by the Commission services. The statistical
analysis performed with the crop growth indicators is transparent, traceable
and stored for all crop simulations and years. A set of statistical indicators
(e.g. root mean square error for different confidence intervals, standard
deviation) is provided for each of the models. At the end of the forecasting
campaign, an error analysis compares the crop yield forecasts with the actual
observed yields to quantify the forecast error and to evaluate the forecasting
performance. 
For information, the overall error, measured as
the mean absolute percentage error of the end-of-campaign forecast for the
EU-27 across all months and for all cereals together, has been 1.6 % for 2007,
-3.3 % for 2008, -1.2 % for 2009, and 1.2 % for 2010, respectively, with
negative values indicating an underestimation, positive values an
overestimation of reported yields (reported yields of 2009 and 2010 are still
preliminary).
Article 1(1)(b): monitoring of crop
conditions and estimates
Besides yield forecasts, crop conditions are
closely monitored throughout the growing season. Meteorological and
remote-sensing information is analysed and linked to relevant crop information
based on the results of biophysical modelling (e.g. impact of a heat wave, a
dry spell, or a cold shock at certain crop development stages). Furthermore,
outputs of the crop growth model are directly used to assess crop conditions
(e.g. simulated leaf area index or simulated biomass). This monitoring covers
the EU and applies to all the included crops.
Article 1(1)(c): promotion of access to the
estimates
An open access to the various outputs is
guaranteed by the websites maintained by the JRC and by the MARSOP3 consortium.
The MARSOP website offers a wide range of information (results from the applied
remote-sensing measures, crop growth model outputs, links to the bulletins).
Satellite data and images are organised into an image server where the data can
be viewed and downloaded. It is also possible to request and download
meteorological data from the MARSOP website.
Article 1(1)(d): ensuring the technological
follow-up of the agro-meteorological system
The JRC performs a constant technical follow up
to ensure the continuity of the system and to guarantee the scientific
robustness of the methodologies applied. These methodologies include the
interpolation of the meteorological data onto a raster, the derivation of remote
sensing measures to describe the growing behaviour of crops or the statistical
analysis performed to obtain the crop yield estimates.
3.2.2.     Measures to be implemented
(Article 1(2))
Article 1(2)(a):
collection and purchase of meteorological and satellite data
The collection and purchase of meteorological
data comprises more than 3500 stations delivering information on weather
parameters, which are fed into the MCYFS on a daily basis. This service is
permanently maintained. Freely available remote sensing data from low and
medium resolution satellites (1 km to 300 m pixel resolution) devoted to
vegetation monitoring are also acquired, stored, further processed and
analysed.
Article 1(2)(b): spatial data infrastructure
and website
Spatial data infrastructure comprises the
technology, standards, human resources and related activities necessary to
acquire, process, distribute, use, maintain and store spatial data. This
infrastructure has been put in place with the MCYFS, involving teams at the JRC
and under the MARSOP3 contract. It covers spatial data sets for the whole of
Europe at different scales. The data are processed to account the needs of crop
condition monitoring and forecasting of crop production. The outputs and
information resulting from the different sources (e.g. remote-sensing) are
available via different websites and web portals.
The infrastructure complies with the framework
set by the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community
(INSPIRE) Directive[5]: The spatial data are geo-referenced according to the INSPIRE
projection, the metadata description follows the INSPIRE principles and will be
further harmonized. The MCYFS will share, through an INSPIRE compliant
Geoportal, the spatial resources available in the Data Base on selected data of the MCYFS on weather, crop information and remote
sensing 
Article 1(2)(c): specific studies on
climatic conditions
The system allows the preparation of specific
studies on the climatic conditions thanks to the large array of information available
covering all relevant aspects. Reports on impacts of extreme weather events on
crops at EU level but as well on more specific regions, were prepared and
delivered to the Commission under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008. 
Article 1(2)(d): updating of agro-meteorological and economic models
Besides the operational running of the system,
models and related databases are updated continuously. The database contains
currently three terra bytes of information. Since the Council Regulation
entered into force, major improvements have taken place: The meteorological
station network has been increased to ensure a better monitoring system; the
resolution of the former 50 km x 50 km grid for the spatial analysis has been
improved to 25 km x 25 km; new crop calibrations have been performed; and a new
database and software version has been released.
4.           Deliverables and outputs
The Commission, the Member
States and other interested stakeholders receive the different deliverables;
reports and bulletins on the one hand and information services and data on the
other hand. All products are available electronically (Article 2 of the
Regulation) and partially on paper format.
Reports and Bulletins
The crop monitoring bulletin for Europe offers,
in near real time and operational context, information and analyses on crop
growth monitoring and yield forecasting. Countries covered are those of the EU
and neighbouring regions (Maghreb, Black Sea area). The crops covered are soft
wheat, durum wheat, winter barley, spring barley, grain maize, rapeseeds,
sunflower, sugar beet and potato. A full analysis is published on the internet
six times per year and supplemented by updated yield estimates two or three
times per year. Special bulletins are prepared for pastures and rice in the EU.
Updates and reviews of agro-meteorological conditions are provided between the
full analysis bulletins (10-12 times per year). All these publications are
available in the internet or in paper format upon request.
Information services and data
A large variety of information about the
current agricultural production season in Europe and other important
agricultural areas in the world is offered on the MARSOP web viewer and pages.
Available products include graphs and maps of weather indicators based on
observations and numerical weather models, graphs and maps of crop indicators
based on agro-meteorological models and graphs and maps of vegetation indices
and cumulated dry matter based on remote sensing images.
5.           Budget resource use
Expenditure 05.080300 implementation of
regulation 78/2008
 2008 || €97,298 
 2009 || €2,370,340 
 2010 || €1,414,851 
 2011 || €1,443,813 
 2012 || €1,449,048 
 2013 (planned) || €1,570,734 
 TOTAL || €8,346,084 
6.           Conclusive remarks and
future of the activity
The MARS System has provided effective and
timely information and objective data in support to the decision making process
for the deployment of the CAP. Beyond the primary objective of producing
harvest yield and production forecasts, the system also provides useful
insights into other fields relevant to EU agriculture such as climate change
issues. Moreover, the MARS agro-meteorological system and remote-sensing
applications have provided useful information not only to the European
Commission but also to interested Member States, research institutes and other
users, through the dissemination of products.
Therefore the Commission has proposed to
continue the MCYFS via article 22 of the draft Regulation of the European
Parliament and the Council on the financing, management and monitoring of the
common agricultural policy COM(2011) 628 on which a political agreement among
Institutions was reached on 26th June.
The continuation of the MARS Crop Yield
Forecasting System could include new activities to follow the needs of the CAP,
which evolves and adapts to a changing global economic environment. In this
context, independent and reliable information at world level is a basic
requirement to ensure the correct and effective decision-making process within
the EU. The new activities mightinclude: 
(1)         
A MCYFS enlarged to other main production areas
of the world and to additional relevant crops;
(2)         
A modelling tool extended to EU crops other than
those currently covered (e.g. to rye, oats, triticale, sugar cane, soy bean);
(3)         
A more complete modelling of pasture systems
able to provide quantitative estimates of biomass production.
As regard point 1, a project called GLOBCAST
(GLOBal Crop Monitoring and ForeCASTing) will end in 2014. The aim of the
GLOBCAST project is to study the enlargement of the MCYFS to other areas of the
world (Commonwealth of Independent States' countries, Argentina, Brazil, China,
India, Australia, Canada and the USA) and to other crops than the ones already
covered by the MCYFS, (wheat, barley, rape seed, sugar beet and potatoes), such
as other crops of global interest and impacting our internal market i.e.
soybean, rice and sugar cane. The GLOBCAST project includes a cost analysis of
the extension of the system to other areas of the world and crops upon which a
possible extension of the MCYFS will be decided. The legal basis to cover the
extension is the same that will be used for the MCYFS, i.e. article 22 of the
Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council on the financing,
management and monitoring of the common agricultural policy COM(2011) 628.
Extending MARS Crop
Yield Forecasting System to production areas beyond Europe and to additional
crops of importance for EU food security but also for international responses
to food shortage would improve the quality of information needed for the
management of the internal market management. Besides it would provide a major
contribution to the G-20 initiative on food security and price volatility, in
particular to the Agriculture Market Information System (AMIS), included in the
"Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture"[6] adopted by the G-20 Agriculture Ministers. This would in particular
contribute to reinforcing the capacity to produce and disseminate timely
accurate crop production forecasts on a national, regional and global scale. 
Synergies are in development with the
COPERNICUS Programme (Land Component) regarding the procurement and
pre-processing of satellite data which could benefit the MARS Crop Yield
Forecasting System. 
[1]               Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 of 21 January 2008
on the measures to be undertaken by the Commission in 2008-2013 making use of
the remote-sensing applications developed within the framework of the common
agricultural policy, Official Journal of the European Union, L 25 of
30 January 2008, p. 1.
[2]               Decision 1445/2000/EC of the European Parliament and
of the Council of 22 May 2000 on the application of aerial-survey and
remote-sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics for 1999 to 2003,
Official Journal of the European Communities L 163 of 4 July 2000, p. 1.
[3]               Decision 2066/2003/EC of the European Parliament and
of the Council of 10 November 2003 on the continued application of areal-survey
and remote-sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics for 2004 to 2007
and amending Decision 1445/2000/EC, Official Journal of the European Union L
309 of 26 November 2003, p. 9.
[4]               The abbreviation SPOT stands for "Satellite Pour
l'Observation de la Terre", NOAA stands for National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration and AVHRR for Advanced very high Resolution
Radiometer, MODIS stands for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.
[5]               Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 14 March 2007 establishing an Infrastructure for Spatial
Information in the European Community (INSPIRE), Official Journal of the
European Union L 108 of 25 April 2007, p. 1.
[6]               http://agriculture.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/2011-06-23_-_Action_Plan_-_VFinale.pdf