COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Adapting infrastructure to climate change Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change
Date: 2013-04-16
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EEA joint institution, adaptation to climate change, building insulation, common strategy, energy saving, joint implementation, public awareness campaign, transport infrastructure

EUROPEAN 
COMMISSION 

Brussels, 16.4.2013  
SWD(2013) 137 final 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

Adapting infrastructure to climate change 

Accompanying the document 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change 

{COM(2013) 216 final} 
{SWD(2013) 131 final} 
{SWD(2013) 132 final} 
{SWD(2013) 133 final} 
{SWD(2013) 134 final} 
{SWD(2013) 135 final} 
{SWD(2013) 136 final} 
{SWD(2013) 138 final} 
{SWD(2013) 139 final} 

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COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

Adapting infrastructure to climate change 

Accompanying the document 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change 

Contents 

1. 

1.1. 

1.2. 

1.3. 

2. 

2.1. 

2.2. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 

Scope of this paper ....................................................................................................... 2 

Definition ..................................................................................................................... 3 

Risks and opportunities ................................................................................................ 3 

Impacts of climate change on infrastructure ................................................................ 4 

Trends and patterns ...................................................................................................... 5 

Territorial aspects......................................................................................................... 5 

2.2.1.  Cities and urban areas .................................................................................................. 6 

2.2.2.  Coastal areas................................................................................................................. 7 

2.2.3.  Mountainous regions .................................................................................................... 7 

2.2.4.  Outermost regions ........................................................................................................ 8 

2.3. 

Sector-specific impacts ................................................................................................ 9 

2.3.1.  Transport infrastructure................................................................................................ 9 

2.3.2.  Energy infrastructure.................................................................................................. 10 

2.3.3.  Construction and buildings......................................................................................... 11 

3. 

4. 

5. 

Addressing common challenges................................................................................. 12 

EU policy mainstreaming........................................................................................... 16 

Instruments ................................................................................................................. 18 

5.1. 

EU instruments for improved climate resilience........................................................ 18 

5.1.1.  Technical Standards ................................................................................................... 19 

5.1.2.  Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environment Assessment ............ 20 

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5.1.3.  Framework for the assessment and management of flood risks................................. 21 

5.1.4.  Climate “proofing” of infrastructure .......................................................................... 21 

5.2. 

Financing climate resilient infrastructure................................................................... 23 

5.2.1.  EU financing .............................................................................................................. 24 

5.2.2.  Private-sector investment and business opportunities................................................ 25 

5.2.3.  The role of insurance.................................................................................................. 27 

6. 

6.1. 

6.2. 

6.3. 

Annex ......................................................................................................................... 29 

Annex 1: Climate risk and impacts on transport infrastructure ................................. 29 

Annex 2: Climate risks and impacts on energy infrastructure ................................... 32 

Annex 3: Climate impacts on buildings/construction sector...................................... 34 

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This  staff  working  document  accompanies  the  Communication  "An  EU  strategy  for 
adaptation to climate change". Together with the Impact Assessment, it provides further 
background  material  supportive  of  the  narrative  and  arguments  put  forward  in  the 
Communication.  It  also  presents,  for  some  areas,  an  outline  of  actions  that  the 
Commission will be undertaking, as announced in the Communication. 

1.1. 

Scope of this paper 

Section 4.3 of the Communication stresses that due to the long life span of much of our 
infrastructure  and  its  great  economic  value,  preparedness  for  current  and  increasing 
future impacts of climate change over the life time of infrastructure is critical.  

Left  unmanaged,  climate  change  may  significantly  affect  the  operational,  financial, 
environmental and social performance of large fixed assets and infrastructure. This paper 
presents the contribution of the European Union to climate change adaptation in selected 
infrastructure  sectors.  It  covers  energy  and  transport  infrastructure  as  well  as 
buildings  in  the  EU  –  sectors  which  were  given  priority  for  adaptation  policy 
mainstreaming in the 2009 White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation.1 The paper also 
discusses  the  instruments  and  financing  provided  by  the  European  Union  to  make 
Europe's infrastructure more climate resilient.2  

Adapting  infrastructure  to  climate  change  is  a  fast-growing,  global  business  in  which 
European  know-how  and  experience  could  open  up  new  economic  opportunities.  By 
promoting  public  and  private  investment  in  climate-resilient  buildings  and  in  smart, 
upgraded and fully interconnected transport and energy infrastructure, EU climate action 
makes  an  important  contribution  to  delivering  growth  and  jobs  in  Europe.  In  line  with 
Europe  2020,  it  simultaneously  contributes  to  progress  towards  more  sustainable 
transport and a secure and clean energy market.  

1.2. 

Definition 

including  communications,  emergency  services,  energy, 

The  term  "infrastructure"  usually  refers  to  physical  assets  in  a  wider  range  of  policy 
areas, 
food, 
government,  health,  education,  civil  protection,  transport  or  water.  Buildings,  from 
private  households  to  schools  or  industrial  installations,  are  the  most  common  type  of 
infrastructure  and  the  basis  for  human  settlement.  In  addition,  network  infrastructure  is 
crucial  for  the  functioning  of  today's  economy  and  society,  notably  infrastructure  for 
energy  (e.g.  grids,  power  stations,  pipelines),  transport  (fixed  assets  such  as  roads, 
railways  or  airports),  ICT  (e.g.  data  cables)  and  water  (e.g.  water  supply  pipelines, 
reservoirs,  waste  water  treatment  facilities).  They  are  sets  of  interconnected  networks 

finance, 

1 

2 

White paper Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action, COM (2009) 
0147 final, Brussels.  
Further  infrastructure  sectors  (e.g.  water  or  ICT  infrastructure)  will  be  addressed  in  the 
implementation phase of the EU adaptation strategy from 2013 on. 
The  forthcoming  Communication  from  the  Commission  on  Green  Infrastructure  will  provide 
additional  information  on  how  "green"  infrastructure  can  contribute  to  the  resilience  to  "hard" 
infrastructure.  

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which  facilitate  the  production  and  distribution  of  goods  and  economic  services,  and 
form the basis for the provision of basic social services.  

Overall, there are many interdependencies between the infrastructure sectors and failure 
in  one  area  can  quickly  lead  to  cascade  failure.  Energy,  water,  ICT  and  transport 
infrastructure  are  also  often  co-located  (e.g.  power  cables  laid  below  roads  and  beside 
communications cables, adjacent to water and gas mains and above sewers), especially in 
urban  areas.  Extreme  weather  events  could  conceivably  affect  (or  disrupt)  all  of  these 
infrastructure assets simultaneously3,  

All  types  of  infrastructure  have  an  enormous  value,  both  directly  as  a  capital  asset  and 
indirectly as an essential element contributing to a productive economy.4 However, costs 
for non-operation or disruption can differ significantly, depending on the type and sector: 
While damage to a local public building usually only has local economic impact, damage 
to  energy  transmission  infrastructure  can  potentially  have  wider,  macro-economic 
consequences. 

1.3. 

Risks and opportunities 

Climate  change  already  has  far-reaching  impacts  on  infrastructure  and  can  put  their 
operation and reliability partially at risk. This trend is likely to accelerate in the coming 
decades  (see  chapter  2).  Main  threats  to  infrastructure  assets  include  damage  or 
destruction  caused  by  extreme  weather  events,  which  climate  change  may  exacerbate; 
coastal  flooding  and  inundation  from  sea  level  rise;  changes  in  patterns  of  water 
availability;  and  effects  of  higher  temperature  on  operating  costs,  including  effects  in 
temperate  and/or  permafrost.  Some  infrastructure  may  not  be  affected  directly  but  be 
unable  to  operate  if  physical  access  or  services  to  it  (such  as  electricity  and  ICT)  are 
disrupted. 

The  need  for  infrastructure  investment  over  the  coming  decades  is  enormous  (see 
chapter 5.2). Climate change does not alter this need but may increase its costs5. Climate 
change may also affect where infrastructure is built and how it is designed and operated. 
There  will  also  be  a  need  for  additional  infrastructure,  dedicated  to  climate  protection, 
such as improved sea defences and flood protection, interconnections in water supply, as 
well as retro-fitting to improve resilience of existing infrastructure.  

Making  infrastructure  resilient  to  climate  change  is  an  important  and  early  adaptation 
challenge.  This  might  not  come  cheap  as  infrastructure  adaptation  usually  dominates 
adaptation  cost  estimates.6  It  also  requires  sophisticated  decision-making,  given  how 

3 

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6 

Royal  Academy  of  Engineering  (2011),  "Infrastructure,  Engineering  and  Climate  Change 
Adaptation – ensuring services in an uncertain future", London.  
HM  Government  (2011),  "Climate  Resilient  Infrastructure:  Preparing  for  a  Changing  Climate", 
London. 
European Policy Center (2012), "The climate is changing – is Europe ready? Building a common 
approach to adaptation", EPC Issue paper No. 70, Brussels. The report argues that while the World 
Bank points out that the cost of adapting to climate change, given the baseline level of infrastructure 
provision, is no more than 1–2 percent of the total cost of providing that infrastructure, the costs of 
adaptation within infrastructures can be high, and thus it is important to ensure that investments are 
smart, cost-effective and far-sighted.  
Fankhauser, S. (2010), "The costs of adaptation", Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: climate change, 
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1 (1), pp. 23-30. 

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little we know about future climate effects at the regional level.7 However, starting this 
process  is  important,  including  at  the  earliest  planning  stages.  Infrastructure  assets  are 
long-lived and have the potential to lock in development patterns for a long time.8 

Changes towards more climate resilient infrastructure investments present some specific 
challenges.  First,  they  often  have  higher  up-front  capital  costs,  even  if  their  climate 
resilience  makes  them  more  profitable  over  the  lifetime  of  the  infrastructure.  Second, 
investors  may  calculate  an  additional  risk  premium  for  projects  to  develop  climate 
resilient  infrastructure,  due  to  the  uncertainty  surrounding  the  implications  of  climate 
change  in  the  long  run.  Third,  ecosystems  provide  some  critical  services  (for  example, 
well-functioning  natural  habitats  on  coasts  or  in  floodplains  protect  against  extreme 
weather events). Investing in protecting these habitats can be less costly than developing 
or  adapting  man-made  infrastructure,  but  market  structures  or  incentives  are  not  yet 
sufficiently implemented to make such investments always profitable.  

However,  addressing  climate  risks  in  investment  and  operating/management  decisions 
can  not  only  mean  avoiding  costs  at  a  later  state  but  also  opening  up  new  economic 
opportunities.9 Adapting infrastructure to climate change impacts presents opportunities 
if  early  action  is  taken  and  expertise  developed.  This  includes  new  skills  and 
technologies  as  well  as  additional  adaptation  capacity  to  enable  infrastructure  to  be 
adapted such as new engineering practices or IT-based technology. What is a risk for city 
planners, utility firms, businesses and homes, can in turn be an opportunity for those who 
build and maintain infrastructure. This know-how and expertise can also be an important 
asset in global competition and be exported to other parts of the world. 

From  a  territorial  perspective,  the  urban  dimension  of  infrastructure  adaptation  is 
crucial.  As  a  large  share  of  important,  often  closely  inter-linked  infrastructure  is 
concentrated  in  Europe's  cities,  urban  adaptation  has  to  deal  with  a  large  number  of 
multiple, cross-sectorial issues in infrastructure development and operation. 

2. 

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INFRASTRUCTURE  

The severity of climate impacts on infrastructures will vary across the EU according to 
individual  locations  and  their  geophysical  risk  exposure,  the  existing  adaptive  capacity 
and resilience, and the level of regional economic development. Long- and medium term 
climatic trends (e.g. increasing average temperatures, modified rainfall patterns) and an 
inherently rising frequency of extreme weather events impact differently from site to site. 
Climate  impacts  not  only  show  regional  and  seasonal  patterns  (e.g.  North/South, 
winter/summer)  but  also  differ  between  territorial  settings  (e.g.  urban/rural/coastal). 
Therefore,  adapting  infrastructure  usually  requires  a  complex,  site-based  analysis  of 
different trends and impact patterns.      

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Ranger  et  al.  (2010),  "Adaptation  in  the UK:  a  decision-making process",  Policy  Brief,  Grantham 
Research  Institute  on  Climate  Change  and  the  Environment  and  Centre  for  Climate  Change 
Economics and Policy, September.  
World  Bank 
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/EACCSynthesisReport.pdf 
UK  Trade  &  Investment  (2011),  Adapting  to  an  Uncertain  Climate:  A  World  of  Commercial 
Opportunities, Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist, London. 

to  Climate  Change,  Synthesis  report, 

(2010),  Economics  of  Adaptation 

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2.1. 

Trends and patterns 

The impacts of climate change vary considerably across Europe, in terms of the regions, 
territories and sectors affected.10 The warming of the earth has far-reaching consequences 
on  several  climatic  parameters,  triggering  changes  in  precipitation  and  temperature 
patterns,  changes  in  intensity  and  frequency  of  extreme  weather  events  (e.g.  extreme 
precipitation,  heat  waves,  cold  spells,  storms),  sea  level  rise  and  changing  wind 
patterns.11  All  of  these  climate  phenomena  may  impact  on  the  stability  and  the 
functioning  of  infrastructure.  Therefore  they  also  need  to  be  considered  when  making 
climate-resilient  investment  decisions  for  new  infrastructure  and  upgrades  of  existing 
infrastructure.  

The location of an infrastructure, together with the adaptive capacity of local businesses, 
governments  and  communities,  usually  determines  an  asset's  climate  sensitivity  and 
vulnerability.  This  vulnerability  to  various  climate  parameters  is  also  strongly  sector-
specific  and  closely  linked  to  the  technology  used  for  construction  and  operation  (e.g. 
less precipitation causing decreased efficiency of hydro-power plants).  

Climate  change  will  also  affect  the  environmental  and  social  systems  around 
infrastructure assets and their interactions with these systems. For instance, reductions in 
rainfall  may  affect  the  availability  and  quality  of  water  resources  on  which  industrial 
assets depend. At the same time, farmers may find they need to irrigate crops for the first 
time  in  response  to  rising  temperatures  and  lower  rainfall.  Such  changes  may  create 
competition  and  could  potentially  lead  to  conflict.  This  highlights  the  importance  of 
thinking in an integrated, cross-sectoral way to consider climate risks and resilience12.  

2.2. 

Territorial aspects 

Europe is characterised by a great territorial diversity. Questions related to the resilience 
of infrastructure are usually closely linked to (local or regional) territorial conditions. In 
addition to global trends and different seasonal and regional  patterns, territorial aspects 
form an additional layer which determines the vulnerability of a given location. This site 
can be part of different territorial categories at the same time (e.g. urban area in a coastal 
zone) – a factor which can emphasise certain impacts (e.g. heat island effect combined 
with  heat  waves  in  cities)  or  lead  to  deviations  from  more  general  regional  patterns 
(vulnerability "hotspots", e.g. high risk-exposure of mountainous villages in an otherwise 
low-risk region).  

Coastal cities and adaptive responses: the example of Hamburg (D) 

Recent sea level rise projections taking into account the impact of artic ice melt suggest 
that  increases  of  between  0.9  to  1.6  metres  above  the  1990  level  could  be  expected  by 
2100.  These  increased  sea  levels  have  the  potential  to  interact  with  storm  surges  to 
present  a  serious  flood  threat  to  Europe’s  coastal  area,  where  large  cities  and  urban 
centres  are  located.  Cities  along  the  coast  of  the  Netherlands,  Germany,  Belgium  and 

10 
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12 

EEA (2010), The European environment – state and outlook 2010, Copenhagen. 
Altvater, S.; van de Sandt, K.; Marinova, N.; de Block, D.; Klostermann, J.; Swart, R.; Bouwma, I.; 
McCallum, S.; Dworak, T.; Osberghaus, D. (2011a), Assessment of the most significant threats to 
the EU posed by the changing climate in the short, medium and long term – Task 1 report. Ecologic 
Institute, Berlin.  
Approaches such as Integrated Water Resources Management or integrated urban development can 
instance,  http://www.gwp.org/The-
for 
help 
Challenge/What-is-IWRM/ and http://www.future-cities.eu.  

thinking.  See, 

integrated 

facilitate 

this 

to 

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northern Italy are most likely to be significantly affected. 

As  a  response,  and  already  facing  increasingly  significant  impacts  of  climate  change, 
many  cities  on  (or  near)  the  coast  are  acknowledging  their  need  to  adapt.  The 
metropolitian  region  of  Hamburg,  for  instance,  has  put  climate  adaptation  already  into 
action.  Its  geographical  position  makes  it  especially  prone  to  storm  floods  and  risk  of 
inundation.  Moreover  sea  level  rise  is  affecting  the  level  of  the  river  Elbe  and  its  tidal 
system.  In  2007  Hamburg  experienced  flooding  due  to  storms  and  high  tides  on  the 
German coast, raising the river Elbe by 3.5 metres. Hamburg's Climate Action Plan for 
2007-2012  therefore  included  a  series  of  concrete  adaptation  measures,  such  as  coastal 
flood defences, water management, inland flood protection, as well as adaptive measures 
for  waterways,  urban  and  landscape  planning,  transport  infrastructure.  Adaptation 
considerations  were  also  integrated  in  the  urban  planning  of  the  'HafenCity'  –  a  newly 
developed, inner-city district in the port area.  

The following sections explain four categories of territories in which climate impacts on 
infrastructure is expected to be most significant. 

2.2.1.  Cities and urban areas 

Cities  are  sensitive  to  many  impacts,  especially  extreme  weather  events.  Due  to  the 
concentration of population, physcial assets, and socio-economic activities, cities play an 
essential  role  in  providing  infrastructure  to  citizens.  Many  climate  impacts  are 
acceleratated or accentuated in built up areas which can create unique microclimates in 
terms of temperatures, wind and precipitation (e.g. urban heat island effect). 

Challenges  to  operating  infrastructure  under  changing  climate  conditions  include  a.o. 
coping with potentially higher operating temperatures during summer (with an increasing 
frequency  and  intensity  of  heat  waves),  protecting  built  environments  against  floods  or 
ensuring  water  and  energy  supply  during  consumption  peaks  (e.g.  cooling  in  "hotter" 
summers, heating in "colder" winters). City dwellers may also be particularly susceptible 
to  vulnerabilities  in  ageing  infrastructure.  This  includes  drainage  and  sewer  systems, 
flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and energy supply. 

Urban  sprawl  and  an  unbroken  trend  to  soil  sealing  can  have  additional  negative 
externalities,  for  instance  a  lack  of  flood  areas.  In  Europe  at  least  1,000  km2  of  land  – 
more than the size of the city of Berlin – are converted for new infrastructure annually13.  
With  a  growing  urban  population  in  Europe,  city  and  regional  authorities  will  play  an 
increasingly  important  role  in  climate  change  adaptation  in  the  future.  Many  European 
cities  have  already  developed  local  adaptation  strategies,  including  measures  aiming  to 
ensure the future operation of existing urban infrastructure (e.g. cooling in metro-systems 
or trams) or increasing the share of urban green space. For new infrastructure, examples 
show  that  construction  codes  or  planning  legislation  (e.g.  for  new  residential  zones) 
partially already incorporate climate change parameters.14   

2.2.2.  Coastal areas 

Infrastructure  in  coastal  areas  as  well  as  off-shore  installations  (e.g.  transmission  lines, 
wind  turbines)  will  be  particularly  affected  by  sea  level  rise  (of  between  0.18m  and 
0.58m by 2100),by changes in ocean currents (which could potentially cool the northern 

13 
14 

COM(2012) 46, 13.02.2012: Report on the Implementation of the Soil Thematic Strategy. 
Examples from European cities are included on: http://eucities-adapt.eu/  

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hemisphere by -1.7°C and lead to a significant increase of frost and snow cover) and by 
coastal erosion (which will be accelerated by sea level rise and an increase frequency of 
heavy storms). Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal inundation and magnify the effect of 
storm surges, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support 
the livelihoods of local communities. 

Historically,  much  attention  has  focused  on  using  hard  structures  such  as  seawalls  to 
protect  infrastructures  and  coastlines  susceptible  to  sea  level  rise.  More  recently, 
integrated  coastal  zone  management  and  ecosystem-based  adaptation,  including  coastal 
forest  rehabilitation  or  beach  dune  restoration,  have  proven  to  be  more  suitable 
frameworks in this respect15.  

A comprehensive analysis of climate impacts in coastal areas and potential further action 
is discussed in the Commission Staff Working Paper "Climate change adaptation: marine 
and coastal issues".  

2.2.3.  Mountainous regions 

The functioning of infrastructure in mountainous areas can be increasingly threatened by 
an increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards (such as landslides, rock falls or 
floods). Most phenomena are linked to the increasing ambient temperature which leads to 
a loss of glacier mass and consequent morphological transformations, reduced snow cover, 
thawing of permafrost and changing precipitation patterns. Climate change is projected to 
result  in  later  seasonal  snow,  less  snow  coverage,  earlier  wet  snow  avalanches,  and 
generally shorter snow seasons.  

Apart  from  the  physical  destruction  of  (or  damage  to)  infrastructure  in  risk  zones,  in 
particular  water  cycles  are  expected  to  change  significantly  (e.g.  increasing/decreasing 
water  availability  for  hydropower  generators,  depending  on  local  and  regional 
conditions).  In  addition,  increasing  temperatures  and  decreasing  snow  cover  will  affect 
regionally  economically  important  winter  activities  and  connected  infrastructure  (e.g. 
installations for artificial snow, ski lifts).  

Examples show that especially investing in natural solutions to protect infrastructure has 
a  large  potential.  Approximately  780,000  ha  (20  per  cent)  of  Austrian  forests  are 
classified  as  ‘protection’  forests  ("Bann-  und  Schutzwälder"),  by  the  Austrian  Forest 
Act.16  The  primary  benefits  of  these  mountainous  forests  to  human  society  are  in 
particular protection from natural disasters (such as avalanches, mudslides, rock falls) but 
their benefits cover as well biodiversity enhancement, recreation and tourism.  

15 

16 

EEA (2010), "Thematic assessment Marine and Coastal Environment", The European environment 
– state and outlook 2010, Copenhagen. 
Mazza  L.,  Bennett  G.,  De  Nocker  L.,  Gantioler  S.,  Losarcos  L.,  Margerison  C.,  Kaphengst  T., 
McConville A., Rayment M., ten Brink P., Tucker G., van Diggelen R. 2011. Green Infrastructure 
Implementation  and  Efficiency.  Final  report  for  the  European  Commission,  DG  Environment  on 
Contract  ENV.B.2/SER/2010/0059.  Institute  for  European  Environmental  Policy,  Brussels  and 
London.  

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2.2.4.  Outermost regions 

Given  their  remoteness,  insularity,  small  size  and  difficult  topography  and  climate,  the 
EU's  outermost  regions17  are  particularly  sensitive  to  the  impacts  of  climate  change. 
Indeed, these permanent constraints render these regions all the more vulnerable to global 
climate challenges. While the deterioration of the shoreline and the increase of average 
temperature  represents  a  common  challenge,  many  other  phenomena  are  linked  to 
specific territorial conditions: Caribbean islands and French Guiana are expected to be hit 
by increased dryness, more intense cyclones and sea level rise, Macaronesian islands will 
be particularly threatened by changes in wind and precipitation patterns, and in Réunion 
rising temperatures will accentuate water scarcity problems.  

The  outermost  regions'  particular  territorial  characteristics  (such  as  being  islands, 
mountainous or coastal locations) and their sensitivity to the impacts of climate change 
put additional pressure on infrastructure and urban settlements. Flooding, sea-level rise, 
drought, heat waves or temperature rise will impact spatial planning and development in 
the OR and all have implications for infrastructure resilience.  

Adapting infrastructure: A challenge for the EU's outermost regions 

As most of the infrastructure (i.e. energy, water supply, transport and communications) is 
concentrated  along  the  coastal  zones,  climate  impacts  such  as  coastal  erosion,  loss  of 
available  land  area  due  to  sea  level  rise  and  increased  frequency  of  extreme  weather 
events such as storms, typhoons and hurricanes pose significant challenges. For example, 
of  the  300  km  coastline  of  French  Guiana  45%  is  currently  subject  to  erosion,  14%  in 
Guadeloupe. Due to their small size economies, remoteness and often fragmented nature 
of  their  territories  (given  some  outermost  regions  are  archipelagos),  disruption  to 
transportation  and  communication  networks  could  have  a  severe  impact  on  vital 
economic sectors, particularly the food-supply and tourism sectors. For example, in the 
Canary  Islands,  tourist  infrastructure  has  spilled  over  into  the  coastal  areas,  with  more 
than  10  million  visitors  a  year  and  a  high  population  density  (200  inhabitants/  km²  on 
average).  Furthermore,  impacts  on  energy  production  (particularly  hydroelectricity), 
distribution and supply facilities are likely to cause significant energy security concerns. 
Freshwater availability in most outermost regions is dependent upon storage of rainwater 
or  upon  seawater  desalination  facilities,  which  may  respectively  be  at  high  risk  due  to 
changes in precipitation patterns and to their coastal location.  

Thus, adaptation measures to increase the resilience of infrastructure have become vital 
for these regions. Current policy responses are focusing on the enhancement of technical 
and  scientific  knowledge,  on  the  review  of  building  and  construction  standards,  on 
sustainable  urban  planning  solutions  and  on  the  development  of  renewable  energy 
sources that will increase energy self-sufficiency. 

17 

The  outermost  regions  are  Guadeloupe,  French  Guiana,  Martinique,  Réunion,  Saint-Martin,  the 
Azores, Madeira, and the Canary Islands (and from January 2014 also Mayotte). They are covered 
by  Article  349  of  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union  which  recognizes  their 
specific  constraints  and  provides  that  the  Council,  on  a  proposal  from  the  Commission  and  after 
consulting  the  European  Parliament,  shall  adopt  specific  measures  to  lay  down  the  conditions  of 
application of the Treaties to those regions, including common policies. 

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2.3. 

Sector-specific impacts 

2.3.1.  Transport infrastructure 

The  infrastructure  of  all  four  transport  modes  are  subject  to  climatic  pressures  and  are 
subject to corresponding adaptation policies: rail (railways), road (roads and highways in 
general  and  specific  cases  of  coastal  and  mountain  roads),  shipping  (inland  and  ocean 
shipping, ports) and aviation (airports).  

Rising  temperatures  and  sea  levels  as  well  as  an  increasing  frequency  and  intensity  of 
extreme  weather  events  (e.g.  storms,  heat  waves,  flooding)  already  have  significant 
impact  on  the  functioning  of  transport  infrastructure  in  the  EU.18  However,  climate 
change affects not only transport infrastructure, but also the distribution of transportation 
and  traffic  flows,  e.g.  as  a  result  of  changing  tourism  patterns.  This  can  consequently 
alter  infrastructure  needs.  Furthermore,  the  vulnerability  of  the  transport  sector  is  also 
influenced  by  human  behaviour  and  societal  changes.  As  different  transport  modes  are 
differently  affected  by  climate  change,  the  kind  of  mobility  chosen  by  individuals  is 
influencing the vulnerability of the whole sector.  

The  consequences  of  climate  change  are  both  negative  and  positive  for  transport 
infrastructure such as for rail, road, shipping and aviation, but will differ from region to 
region.  In  particular,  the  projected  increase  in  the  frequency  and  intensity  of  extreme 
weather events such as heavy rain (e.g. causing floods), heavy snowfall, extreme heat and 
cold,  drought  and  reduced  visibility  can  enhance  negative  impacts  on  the  transport 
infrastructure,  causing  injuries  and  damages  as  well  as  economic  losses,  transport 
disruptions and delays. For road transport infrastructure, weather stresses represent from 
30% to 50% of current road maintenance costs in Europe (8 to 13 billion € p.a.). About 
10% of these costs (~0.9 billion € p.a.) are associated with extreme weather events alone, 
in  which  extreme  heavy  rainfalls  &  floods  events  represent  the  first  contribution.19 
However,  also  some  beneficial  impacts  on  transport  can  be  expected,  such  as  from 
reduced snowfall for most of the European regions in the longer-term.  

A detailed assessment of relevant climate impacts on transport infrastructure is presented 
in annex 1. 

Responding to climate impacts: railways between Copenhagen and Ringsted (DK) 20 

Increased  precipitation  and  increased  water  flow  in  watercourses  can  affect  the  new 
railway  line  between  Copenhagen  and  Ringsted.  In  connection  with  the  project  on 
expanding the track capacity between Copenhagen and Ringsted on Zealand, the Public 
Transport  Authority,  which  has  analysed  the  track  capacity,  has  carried  out  a  climate 
change  impact  assessment  for  the  project.  The  goal  of  the  impact  assessment  is  to 
investigate  a  future  rail  track’s  robustness  to  climate  change  over  a  100-year  operating 
period. The assessment shows that especially increased precipitation and increased water 
flow  in  watercourses  can  impact  on  railway  constructions,  whilst  other  factors  such  as 
increasing  temperatures,  rising  sea  levels  and  rising  groundwater  will  not  have  a 

18 

19 

20 

For  research  on  extreme  weather  events  and  their  impact  on  the  transport  sector  see_  EWENT 
project http://ewent.vtt.fi or WEATHER project www.weather-project.eu. 
Nemry  F,  Demirel  H.  Transport  and  Climate  Change:  a  focus  on  road  and  rail  transport 
infrastructures. EUR 25553 EN. Luxembourg (Luxembourg): Publications Office of the European 
Union; 2012.  JRC72217) 
Available  in  the  Danish  Portal  for  Climate  Change  Adaptation:  http://klimatilpasning.dk/en-
US/Service/Cases/Sider/Adaptingrailwaystoclimatechange.aspx  

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significant impact. Of particular importance is an expected 20% increase in the intensity 
of rainfall in heavy downpours in the year 2100.  

In  areas  where  watercourse  cross  the  track,  under  a  bridge  or  tunnel,  climate  changes 
mean there is a risk that water cannot flow quickly enough and thereby build up and risk 
eroding  the  railway  construction. Therefore  a  new  track  between  Copenhagen  and 
Ringsted  will  have  a  30  per  cent  greater  capacity  for  water  flow  than  the  norm  that  is 
used  at  present.  The  Public  Transport  Authority  assesses  that  the  recommendations  for 
adaptation  to  climate  change  are  robust  in  relation  to  the  variations  in  the  expected 
climate changes.  

2.3.2.  Energy infrastructure 

Impacts of climate change, such as an increased frequency of extreme weather events or 
changing  water  and  air  temperatures  have  effects  on  energy  transmission,  distribution, 
generation and demand. Recent studies21  suggest important impacts of climate change on 
the energy sector and underpin the need for adaptation, notably in the electricity sector.  

The transmission and distribution grids are increasingly challenged by new seasonal and 
regional  demand  patterns  as  well  as  direct  physical  effects  of  extreme  weather  events 
(e.g.  storms  or  floods).  At  the  same  time,  they  are  also  subject  to  new  balancing 
requirements arising from the integration of significant volumes of electricity produced 
from  renewable  sources  (typically  sparsely  distributed).  Despite  this  dual  challenge,  a 
high degree of reliability needs to be ensured. Due to their comparatively lower physical 
robustness,  older  regional  distribution  networks  are  particularly  vulnerable  to  extreme 
weather events (e.g.  flashovers  in rural areas).22    The generation of electrical energy is 
affected  by  efficiency  decreases  due  to  climate  change  (e.g.  decreasing  availability  of 
cooling  water  for  electricity  generators).  However,  in  some  parts  of  Europe,  increased 
precipitation or more wind may also lead to new opportunities for hydropower or wind 
energy  generation.  Overall,  floods  are  identified  as  a  particular  threat  to  electricity 
generators and related physical assets. Regional and seasonal demand and consumption 
patterns  will  change  with  an  increasing  ambient  temperature.  Projections  suggest  a 
reduction in space-heating in northern Europe and an increase in demand for cooling in 
southern  Europe.23  Additionally,  extreme  weather  periods  such  as  heat  waves,  cold 
spells,  and  droughts  will  lead  to  increasingly  significant  demand  peaks,  potentially 
causing  demand-driven  overstress  of  energy  infrastructure.  Scientific  evidence  suggests 
that regional and seasonal demand shifts are the most important, climate-induced change 
to the energy system.24 

Table  1:  impacts  of  changing  climate  parameters  on  different  energy  supplies.  Source:  European 
Commission (2011) 

21 

22 

23 

24 

European  Commission  (2011),  Investment  needs  for  future  adaptation  measures  in  EU  nuclear 
power  plants  and  other  electricity  generation  technologies  due  to  effects  of  climate  change,  final 
report,  conducted  by  ECORYS  Nederland  BV,  contract  TREN/09/NUCL/SI2.547222,  Brussels. 
Asian Development Bank (2012), Climate risk and adaptation in the electric power sector, Manila. 
The UK's 2012 climate risk assessment suggests that upgrading the existing distribution networks to 
cope  with  climate  impacts  will  require  between  1  and  100  million  GBP  per  year  by  the  2080s.  
Department  of  Food  and  Rural  Affairs  (2012),  UK  Climate  Change  risk  assessment  (CCRA), 
London.  
EEA (2010), "Adapting to climate change", The European Environment – State and Outlook 2010, 
Copenhagen. 
JRC (2012) "PESETA II. The Impact of climate change on the European energy system", Report to 
the European Commission, DG Climate Action, Ispra.  

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Technology  

Nuclear 

Hydro 

Wind onshore 

Wind offshore 

air 

Δ 
temp. 

Δ  water 
temp. 

Δ precip.  Δ  wind 

speeds 

sea 

flood  

Δ 
level 

1 

2 

2 

1 

1 

3 

Biomass 

1 

2 

PV 

CSP 

Geothermal 

Natural gas 

Coal 

Oil 

Grids 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 

1 

3 

storms 

heat 
waves 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

3 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

3 

3 

3 

1 

1 

3 

3 

3 

1 

Note: 3 = severe impact, 2 = medium impact, 1 = small impact. A detailed assessment of 
relevant climate impacts on energy infrastructure is presented in annex 2.  

2.3.3.  Construction and buildings 

Investments in buildings and other infrastructure are increasingly put at risk by changing 
climatic conditions and related extreme weather events. Due to the long lifespan of many 
buildings and other infrastructure and their great economic value, their preparedness and 
resilience to future impacts of climate change are critical. 

The impact of climate change is particularly pertinent to the construction industry given 
the life expectancy of buildings and the fact that there is a need to adapt the existing built 
environment, to deal with a climate that may be significantly different from that in which 
it  evolved.  Major  threats  to  construction  and  buildings  requiring  short-term  action 
include (1) extreme precipitation, which can be expected European wide, e.g. leading to 
water  intrusion,  damage  to  foundations  and  basements,  destruction  of  buildings  and 
infrastructure,  overflowing  sewers,  land-  and  mud-slides,  flooding,  etc.;  (2) extreme 
summer  heat  events,  especially  but  not  only  in  South  Europe,  e.g.  leading  to  material 
fatigue  and  accelerated  aging,  decreased  comfort  and  potentially  severe  health 
implications,  high  energy  use  for  cooling,  et cetera;  (3) exposure  of  constructions  to 
heavy  snowfall;  (4) rising  sea  levels  that  increase  the  risk  of  flooding.  In  addition,  soil 
subsidence risks25 are likely to increase, depending on the stability of building structures 
and their foundations. 

Buildings and infrastructure can be vulnerable to climate change because of their design 
(low resistance to storms) or location (e.g. in flood-prone areas, landslides, avalanches). 
Flooding  is  (after  earthquakes)  one  of  the  most  costly  kinds  of  disasters  and  this  is 
mainly  due  to  floods  in  built-up  areas.  Many  European  cities  have  been  built  along  a 
river; and these rivers will respond to extreme rainfall or snowmelt events with extreme 
discharges,  threatening  the  cities  with  floods.  There  is  also  a  growing  problem  with 
overheating of the built environment being exposed  to  rising temperatures and extreme 

25 

Swiss Re. (2011), " The hidden risks of climate change: An increase in property damage from soil 
subsidence in Europe", Zürich. 

EN 

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heat,  which  is  not  only  an  issue  for  the  construction  material  but  also  affects  the 
occupant's  comfort  and  health.  In  coastal  areas,  coastal  protection  (e.g.  sea  walls)  may 
require increasing maintenance costs and higher frequency of readjustments. 

A detailed assessment of relevant climate impacts on buildings is presented in annex 3.  

3. 

ADDRESSING COMMON CHALLENGES 

While  climate  impacts  and  adaptation  challenges  differ  from  sector  to  sector,  the  on-
going  adaptation  process  also  includes  several  common  elements  which  will  be 
highlighted in the following sector. 

Adapting infrastructure to a changing climate needs to be considered in two ways. First, 
when  constructing  new  infrastructure,  climate  resilience  can  be  ensured  by  locating, 
designing  and  operating  an  asset  with  the  current  and  future  climate  in  mind.  This  is 
particularly important in the case of large infrastructure which usually has a lifespan of at 
least  20  years  and  investment  decisions  therefore  influence  future  generations'  well-
being.  Secondly,  existing  infrastructure  can  be  made  more  climate-resilient  by  retro-
fitting and/or ensuring that maintenance regimes incorporate resilience to the impacts of 
climate change over an asset’s lifetime. 

Design  thresholds  which  are  built  into  infrastructure  project  designs  may  be  breached 
more frequently in a future changing climate. A changing climate may result in threshold 
failures  once  considered  exceptional  but  acceptable,  becoming  unexceptional  (i.e. 
normal)  and  unacceptable.  Infrastructure  may  have  to  function  within  tighter  margins 
between “normal” operation and critical thresholds. This may manifest itself in decreased 
efficiency  of  equipment  and  provide  less  margin  for  error  before  drastic  management 
measures (such as reduced operation or throughput) need to be implemented. 

EN 

14 

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Figure  1:  The  relationship  between  coping  range,  critical  threshold,  vulnerability,  and  a  climate-
related success criterion for a project. [Source: Willows and Connell (2003) modified]. 

Infrastructure  is  generally  constructed  in  a  manner  that  is  resilient  to  the  weather 
conditions  of  the  past.  Climate  change  makes  it  increasingly  important  to  enhance  and 
disseminate knowledge on the present and future climatic conditions.  

Examples  from  the  energy  sector  show  that  different  types  of  infrastructure  are  built, 
maintained and operated following well proven construction codes, regulations and good 
practices in operating them. They take due account of siting characteristics, among which 
weather  extremes  (e.g.  temperature,  rainfall,  water  supply  or  wind)  and  other  inputs 
(geology,  earthquake,  use  of  land  etc…)  are  fixed  based  on  historical  records  plus  an 
engineering "safety" margin. New energy infrastructure projects integrate those factors in 
their feasibility analysis, both from an economic and a safety point of view. Variations in 
any  of  the  above  parameters  due  to  climate  change  result  in  the  need  to  perform 
scheduled  revisions  of  the  construction  (when  project  is  progressing)  or  operation 
specifications,  in  order  to  ensure  that  the  operation  and  integrity  of  the  infrastructure 
remain within the required safety margins at all time. 

To  achieve  sector-  and  location  specific  climate  resilience,  there  is  thus  a  need  for  a 
thorough  and  coherent  assessment  of  local  climate  impacts  –  based  on  historical 
records, but also including projections on future climatic conditions. Only detailed local 
assessments can provide greater confidence in understanding current and future climate 
variability  and  its  impacts  on  installations.  Subsequently,  making  climate  change 
assessments and system-wide vulnerability checks for interconnected installations26, 
developing  long-term  (investment)  strategies  and  incorporating  climate  issues  into 
planning  and  maintenance  procedures  can  not  only  ensure  the  timely  adaptation  of 
installations but also avoid future negative externalities. 

Land-use  policies  and  spatial  planning  play  a  central  role  when  developing  new 
infrastructure. Overall, the climate resilience of infrastructure is not limited to its outfit 
but  starts  with  sound  spatial  planning  and  the  right  choice  for  the  site  and  necessary 

26 

As  an  example  see:  RESNET  -  Resilient  Electricity  Networks  for  Great  Britain  (UK), 
http://www.arcc-cn.org.uk/project-summaries/resnet/  

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compensation  measures.27  The  appraisal  of  options  against  the  background  of  climate 
change and its impacts on a given site is crucial. As a result of local impact assessments, 
installations might be located differently, not necessarily causing any additional costs for 
the investor. 

In order to enhance climate resilience for a given building or physical asset, also green 
infrastructure28 or protective elements can make important contributions. In rural areas, 
multi-functional  resilient  ecosystems  offer  cost-effective  options  when  integrated  into 
land planning, e.g. using floodplain forests acting as a "safety valve" to store water and 
reduce  the  risk  of  flooding  instead  of  'grey'  infrastructure.  Such  green  infrastructure 
solutions  are  often  cheaper  in  one-off  and  maintenance  costs  than  purely  technical 
protection solutions such as building dams and floodplain reservoirs. In cities and built-
up areas, green roofs and walls through shading and evaporation, help to avoid the heat 
island effect, filter the air and can also contribute to the energy efficiency of buildings. 
Thus they also positively impact human health and contribute to emission reduction.  

While  engineering  measures  (such  as  additional  cooling  circuits  for  power  plants  or 
design  standards  for  distribution  poles)  can  significantly  increase  the  robustness  and 
reliability  of  installations,  also  non-engineering  measures  should  be  considered.  They 
may  include  more  robust  operational  and  maintenance  procedures,  better  demand 
management and forecasting or early-warning systems.  

Enhancing the resilience of buildings and other infrastructure to the adverse impacts of 
climate change should take place within an integrated and synergistic approach giving 
due  consideration  to  other  relevant  issues  (such  as  embodied  and  operating  energy, 
insulation,  air  conditioning,  on-site  generation  of  renewable  energy,  water  efficiency, 
materials efficiency, waste and toxics reduction and/or minimising urban sprawl). Where 
relevant,  the  development  and  revision  of  appropriate  construction  and  maintenance 
standards  for  the  construction  of  different  types  of  infrastructure  should  be  envisaged 
(see chapter 5.1.1). 

Greening of roofs and facades in Austrian cities (AT) 

Climate  change  will  increase  the  urban  heat  island  effect  in  the  years  to  come.  This 
meteorological  phenomenon  is  linked  to  high  density  areas  and  characterized  by  high 
annual  average  air  and  surface  temperatures,  little  cooling  occurring  at  night,  air 
pollution,  an  increased  vegetation  period  and  changing  wind  and  rainfall  patterns. 
Strategies  to  improve  the  urban  climate  include  reducing  the  heat  stored  in  cities, 
stimulating evaporation and storing rainwater for lengthy periods.  

Greening  of  the  roofs  and  facades  of  buildings  helps  ameliorating  the  urban  climate, 

27 

28 

To support decision makers, planners and other keyplayers involved in infrastructure development 
as  well  as  the  interested  public  the  Commission's  services  have  recently  published  a  working 
document  containing  Guidelines  on  Best  Practice  to  Limit,  Mitigate  or  Compensate  Soil  Sealing. 
This  document  provides  information  on  the  magnitude  of  soil  sealing  in  the  European  Union,  its 
impact on the environment – including the climatic aspects – and examples of best practice. 
European  Commission  [SWD(2012)  101]  -  Guidelines  on  best  practice  to  limit,  mitigate  or 
compensate soil sealing. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/soil/sealing_guidelines.htm  
Green  infrastructure  investment  is  generally  characterised  by  a  high  level  of  return  over  time  and 
global reviews of restoration projects typically show cost-benefit ratios in the range of 3 to 75. See: 
Nellemann,  C.E.  Corocran  (eds)  2010.  Dead  Planet,  Living  Planet  –  Biodiversity  and  ecosystem 
restoration  for  sustainable  development.  A  rapid  response  Assessment.  UNEP,  GRID-Arendal. 
More information on http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/ecosystems/index_en.htm  

EN 

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while also being a means of adapting to climate change. Green roofs and green facades 
smooth  temperatures  or  humidity  changes,  naturally  cooling  down  temperatures  during 
the summer and keeping warmth in winter. They also isolate from noise, provide clean 
and oxygenated air, store humidity and protect from extreme weather events. They are a 
natural habitat for fauna and flora, have a positive impact on the local microclimate and 
are  actively  contributing  to  the  conservation  of  the  environment  and  nature  and  to 
reducing operational costs in the long run. 

To  promote  the  greening  of  roofs  and  facades,  many  Austrian  regional  and  local 
governments  provide  financial  incentives  and  practical  guidance  on  how  to  make 
Austria's cities greener – and buildings more climate resilient.  

Additionally, guidelines for project managers in the field of infrastructure planning and 
operation  can  support  adaptation  processes.  It  may  also  be  relevant  to  expand  on  the 
“climate proofing” and not only consider the resilience to the adverse impacts of climate 
change  but  also  minimise  the  emission  of  greenhouse  gases  over  the  lifespan  of  the 
physical  assets  in  question.  The  cost-benefit  analysis  usually  applied  to  transport 
infrastructure  projects  needs  to  give  due  attention  to  the  impacts  of  climate  change 
including extreme weather events, climate proofing, and the range of relevant options.  

Developing  and  managing  infrastructure  usually  involves  a  wide  range  of  public  and 
private  actors.  Therein,  public  authorities  at  European,  national,  regional  and  local 
levels  play  a  pivotal  role  not  only  in  financing,  but  also  in  promoting  climate  resilient 
infrastructure  by  providing  appropriate  policy  and  regulatory  frameworks,  information 
and expertise. However, it is also action by others – investors, owner, operators, insurers 
and  engineering/construction  businesses29  –  which  will  determine  the  success  and 
effectiveness  climate  risks  management  and  other  adaptation  action.  Considering  for 
instance  the  current  European  energy  market,  the  private  sector,  notably  utility  and 
electricity companies as well as transmission and distribution system operators, will play 
a  central  role  in  the  adaptation  process.  Close  cooperation  between  different  levels  of 
government and between the private and public sectors is therefore essential. 

Electricity grid adaptation to climate change in Sweden and Norway 

Scientific  research  suggests  that  national  regulations  and  culture,  company  size  and 
experience  with  weather  incidents  have  far-reaching  influence  on  adaptation  to  climate 
change in electricity distribution companies.  A study30 on four electricity grid companies 
in  Norway  and  Sweden  –  two  countries  with  similar  climate  conditions,  but  business 
environments – underlines this aspect. Of the four companies investigated in this study, 
investments  by  the  two  Norwegian  companies  were  found  to  be  strongly  based  on 
economic  efficiency.  This  approach  reflects  the  influence  of  the  national  regulatory 
framework  that  is  efficiency-focused,  in  addition  to  an  organisational  culture  where 
economic efficiency has a higher profile than other issues, such as the robustness of the 
system and the grid. In contrast, the two  companies in Sweden focused on investments 
that have more of a balance between increasing the robustness of the grid and economic 

29 

30 

HM  Government  (2011),  Climate  Resilient  Infrastructure:  Preparing  for  a  Changing  Climate, 
London, p.33-40. 
Inderberg,  T.H.  and  Løchen,  L.A.  (2012),  "Adaptation  to  climate  change  among  electricity 
distribution  companies  in  Norway  and  Sweden:  lessons  from  the  field",  Local  Environment:  The 
International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 17 (6-7): 663-678. 

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efficiency, reflecting the national regulatory framework.  

The  Swedish  companies  have  consequently  been  able  to  invest  more  in  adaptation 
measures  than  the  Norwegian  companies.  A  major  storm  (Gudrun)  in  Sweden  in  2005 
that caused wide-spread damage has influenced the views on climate change by Swedish 
electricity  companies.  Such  an  extreme  weather  event  exposed  the  vulnerability  of  the 
grid to future severe storms. One consequence has been for the larger Swedish company 
to  speed  up  investment  in  underground  cables  to  replace  overhead  transmission  lines. 
Such investments are also seen as economically feasible in the long term. In Norway, the 
companies  have  experienced  an  increased  frequency  of  heavy  snow.  Whilst  the 
companies  regard  the  replacement  of  overhead  lines  with  underground  cables  as  being 
too costly, the larger Norwegian company has adapted by increasing maintenance of the 
system, in addition to investing in insulated overland lines which are stronger and better 
able  to  withstand  the  weight  of  the  snow.  The  study  also  highlights  that  the  larger 
companies have more resources to plan for adaptive measures to cope with future climate 
change  than  the  smaller  companies.  Local  knowledge  in  small  companies  does  not 
provide enough expertise for adapting to future vulnerabilities. 

Awareness-raising  and  exchanges  amongst  these  key  stakeholders31  will  be  vital  to 
achieve  a  full  penetration  of  the  sector  regarding  its  climate  vulnerability  and  adaptive 
capacity.  Overall, the stakeholders' adaptive capacity and knowledge will be decisive to 
achieve the right results.  

In this respect, the development of professional skills and the exchange of experience, 
both  for  engineering  and  non-engineering  adaption  measures  appear  as  vital.  This  area 
also  represents  a  major  economic  opportunity,  also  to  export  know-how  to  outside  the 
EU.  In  particular  the  engineering  and  construction  sectors  are  challenged  to  develop 
further their ability to embrace probabilistic methods and flexible solutions, and to deal 
with  complex  risk  scenarios.  Adaptation,  mitigation  measures,  and  the  needs  of  an 
evolving population and economy all make demands on engineering capacity.32 

4. 

EU POLICY MAINSTREAMING  

Within  its  competences  and  building  on  the  2009  white  paper,  the  European  Union  is 
engaged in mainstreaming climate change adaptation in various EU policies and financial 
instruments including the European Transport Policy, the Connecting Europe Facility or 
EU cohesion policy. As outlined in the communication "…", these efforts will continue 
throughout the implementation period of the strategy. The following section provides an 
overview of the current EU policy approach and the uptake of climate change adaptation 
in EU legislation.  

The transport sector fulfils crucial economic and social functions and is highly depending 
on  the  environmental  situation.  Investment  in  transport  infrastructure  is  increasingly 

31 

32 

While  all  European  nuclear  facilities  had  assessed  the  effects  of  climate  change  within  their 
mandatory  periodic  safety  reviews  by  2011,  around  30%  of  fossil-fuelled  power  generators  had 
made  similar  climate  change  assessments.  In  other  areas,  notably  renewable  electricity  as  well  as 
transmission/distribution, only up to 5% of all facilities had undergone a climate check.  
European  Commission  (2011),  Investment  needs  for  future  adaptation  measures  in  EU  nuclear 
power  plants  and  other  electricity  generation  technologies  due  to  effects  of  climate  change,  final 
report, conducted by ECORYS Nederland BV, Brussels, on page 76. 
Royal  Academy  of  Engineering  (2011),  Infrastructure,  Engineering  and  Climate  Change 
Adaptation – ensuring services in an uncertain future, London. 

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put at risk by changing climatic conditions and related extreme  weather events. Due to 
the  long  life  span  of  the  majority  of  transport  infrastructure  and  their  great  economic 
value, their preparedness and resilience to future impacts of climate change are critical. 
The  proposal  for  the  new  TEN-T  Guidelines33  includes  climate  resilience,  in  particular 
under article 41: during  infrastructure planning due consideration shall be given to risk 
assessments  and  adaptation  measures  adequately  improving  the  resilience  to  climate 
change.  Additionally,  where  appropriate,  due  consideration  should  be  given  to  the 
resilience of infrastructure to natural or man-made disasters. 

TEN-T  projects,  co-financed  under  the  Connecting  Europe  Facility,  are  expected  to 
contribute  to  promoting  the  transition  to  a  climate-  and  disaster-resilient  infrastructure. 
All transport modes are eligible for funding. Co-financing rates may be increased by up 
to 10 percentage points for actions enhancing climate resilience.34  

Next  to  adaptation  to  climate  change,  the  trans-European  transport  (TEN-T)  network 
should  provide  the  basis  for  the  large-scale  deployment  of  new  technologies  and 
innovation, which, for example, can help enhance the overall efficiency of the European 
transport  sector  and  curb  its  carbon  footprint.  This  will  contribute  towards  the  Europe 
2020  strategy  and  the  Transport  White  Paper's  target  of  a  60%  cut  in  greenhouse  gas 
emissions by 2050 (based on 1990 levels) and at the same time contribute to the objective 
of increasing fuel security for the Union. 

With its policies and within its competences, the European Union actively contributes to 
adapting  energy  infrastructure  to  climate  change.  The  energy  sector  is  of  vital 
importance  for  Europe's  economic  performance.  Climate  change  has  consequences  for 
the  sector's  stability,  sustainability  and  resilience.  Both  mitigation  and  adaptation  are 
policy responses which need to be taken on board. Energy infrastructures, from overhead 
lines and pipelines to power stations, play a critical role for supplying European citizens 
and businesses with energy. Significant investment, both from the private and the public 
sector, will be needed in the next decades to adapt some of the sector's physical assets to 
a changing climate.  

The  2008  Commission  Green  Paper  on  a  secure,  sustainable  and  competitive  energy 
network stated that "the implications of climate change for Europe's energy networks, for 
example  the  positioning  of  plants,  power  lines  and  pipelines,  need  to  be  taken  into 
account."35  
The  new  guidelines  for  trans-European  energy  infrastructure  (TEN-E  Guidelines)36 
therefore  also  include  "climate  resilience"  as  a  parameter  for  the  energy  system-wide 
cost-benefit-analysis  for  projects  of  common  interest  in  electricity  transmission  and 
storage  and  in  gas  (Annex  5).  The  objective  of  preventing  and  increasing  the  Union's 
energy infrastructure to natural or man-made disasters, adverse effects of climate change 
and threats to its security are also highlighted in recital 8.  

33 

34 

35 

36 

Proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Union, Guidelines for 
the development of the trans-European transport network, COM(2011) 650 final/2 of 19/12/2011, 
Brussels. 
Proposal  for  a  Regulation  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council,  Establishing  the 
Connecting Europe Facility, COM (2011) 0665 final of 19/10/2011, Brussels. 
Green  Paper  A  European  Strategy  for  Sustainable,  Competitive  and  Secure  Energy,  COM  (2006) 
105 final of  8/3/2006,  Brussels;  and   Green  Paper Towards  a secure,  sustainable and competitive 
energy network, COM (2008) 782 final of 13/11/2008, Brussels. 
Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council, Establishing Guidelines 
for trans-European energy infrastructure. COM(2011) 658 final of 19/10/2011, Brussels. 

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Future  EU  investment  under  the  TEN-E  policy,  in  particular  through  the  Connecting 
Europe  Facility  (2014-2020)37,  is  expected  to  contribute  to  enhancing  the  system's 
resilience  and  to  tackling  part  of  the  investment  needs  for  the  adaptation  of  electricity 
grids. 

Overall,  electricity  systems  have  to  become  more  interconnected  and  flexible,  and  new 
infrastructure  development  and  reinforcement  will  be  necessary.  In  particular,  the 
deployment  of  smart  grid  technologies38  will  play  a  part  in  managing  the  variability  of 
demand and supply. The 2012 Ten Year Network Development Plan39 of the European 
Network  of  Transmission  System  Operators  identifies  an  overall  investment  need  in 
trans-European  transmission  infrastructure  of  about  100  billion  EUR,  addressing  both 
mitigation and adaptation objectives. 40 While adapting energy infrastructure to cope with 
changing  temperatures  and  to  withstand  extreme  weather  events  is  crucial  to  guarantee 
the  energy  systems  (current  and  future)  reliability,  mitigation  measures  (e.g.  energy 
efficiency  in  buildings)  can  make  important  contributions  to  deal  with  energy  demand 
peaks and/or system overstress. 

Buildings,  from  private  households  to  hospitals  or  industrial  installations,  are  the  most 
common type of infrastructure which is also relevant to other infrastructure sectors (e.g. 
railway  stations,  airport  buildings).  Given  the  important  role  of  the  private  sector, 
adaptive action will – in most cases – be taken by private owners. National, regional and 
local  bodies  play  a  role  in  both  adapting  their  physical  assets  to  climate  change  and  in 
considering  climate  adaptation  in  legal  planning  frameworks  and  permission  granting 
procedures.  The  European  level  can  however  play  also  an  important  role  in  stipulating 
the uptake of climate considerations in planning and construction: firstly, by ensuring the 
uptake  of  climate  resilience  in  EU  infrastructure  investment  policies,  and  secondly,  by 
promoting new construction standards.  

5. 

INSTRUMENTS  

5.1. 

 EU instruments for improved climate resilience 

Improving the climate resilience of existing and future infrastructure from the impact of 
climate change is predominantly a Member State responsibility. Both, the private and the 
public  sector  play  an  essential  role.  The  EU  nevertheless  has  an  important  role  in 
providing  several  instruments  which  can  help  improving  a  project's  adaptive  response 
and  resilience.  This  may  apply  during  design  and  planning  but  also  in  the  course  of 
retrofitting. 

Most  infrastructure  sectors  are  strongly  regulated,  which  means  that  policies  governing 
these sectors play an important role and might need to be revised in the light of current 
and  future  climate  changes.  One  of  the  most  important  type  of  instrument  used  to 
regulate infrastructure sectors are standards at EU level, which often include references 

37 

38 

39 

40 

Proposal  for  a  Regulation  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council,  Establishing  the 
Connecting Europe Facility, COM (2011) 0665 final of 19/10/2011, Brussels. 
Communication  from  the  Commission  to  the  European  Parliament  and  the  Council,  Renewable 
Energy: Progressing towards the 2020 target, COM (201) 0031final of 31/01/2011, Brussels. 
European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (2012), 10-Year Network 
Development Plan 2012, Brussels. 
A  recent  study  estimates  the  investment  needs  for  adaptation  between  €637  and  €654  million  per 
year for EU-26 without Malta; Institute for European Environmental Policy (2012), "Optimal use of 
the EU grant and financial instruments in the next multi-annual financial framework to address the 
climate objective", Interim Report, London.  

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to  (directly  or  indirectly)  weather/climate  related  pressures.  Furthermore,  revised 
guidelines  for  the  Environmental  Impact  Assessment  and  the  Strategic  Environment 
Assessment  as  well  as  the  Floods  directive  contribute  to  climate  resilient  investment. 
Additionally,  guidelines  for  climate-proofing  infrastructure  projects  can  support  this 
process. 

5.1.1.  Technical Standards  

When revising existing or building new structures, technical standards are used in every 
phase  during  the  lifetime  cycle  of  an  infrastructure.  Standards  can  apply  during  the 
planning  phase  (e.g.  risk  assessments,  environmental  standards),  the  design  phase  (e.g. 
Eurocodes), 
the  construction  phase  (European  and  national  product  standards, 
implementation  standards)  and  the  maintenance  phase  (e.g.  environmental  standards, 
safety standards). Thus standards have an important impact on the resilience of products, 
processes and construction. In this process, both European/international standards as well 
national or sector-specific requirements play a central role. 

At  European  level,  Eurocodes  can  be  a  suitable  instrument  for  addressing  climate 
resilience in different infrastructure sectors. Eurocodes are a set of European Standards 
(EN) for the structural design of buildings and civil engineering works, produced by the 
European Committee for Standardisation (CEN) to be used in the European Union. They 
provide  for  compliance  with  the  requirements  for  mechanical  strength,  stability  and 
safety as basis for design and engineering contract specifications. The Eurocodes embody 
national  experience  and  research  output  together  with  the  expertise  of  CEN  Technical 
Committee  250 
International  Technical  and  Scientific 
Organisations  and  represent  a  world-class  standard  for  structural  design.  The 
Commission has asked CEN to prepare a proposal for how to incorporate climate change 
and extreme weather events in the Eurocodes. 

(CEN/TC250)  and  of 

Based on ISO Guide 64, CEN has developed and adopted CEN Guide 4 "Guide for the 
inclusion of environmental aspects in product standards", which aims to provide a helpful 
tool for people involved in standardization who are not necessarily environmental experts 
to  take  the  potential  environmental  aspects  related  to  their  standards  into  account. 
Following discussions with the Commission, CEN is currently considering how to amend 
Guide  4  to  take  into  account  climate  change  in  the  development  and  revision  of 
standards. 

Furthermore,  the  Commission  is  currently  in  dialogue  with  the  three  European 
standardisation  organisations  (CEN,  CENELEC  and  ETSI)  to  prepare  a  programming 
and  standardisation  mandate.  Its  main  objective  is  to  contribute  to  building  and 
maintaining  a  more  climate  resilient  infrastructure  in  three  selected  sectors  (transport, 
energy  and  buildings/construction).  The  scope  of  the  mandate  is  both  to  identify  and 
prioritise  all  standards  relevant  for  climate  change  adaptation  and  to  revise  "priority 
standards"  accordingly.  Additionally,  if  deemed  necessary  during  this  exercise,  new 
relevant  standards  could  be  developed.  The  mandate  also  includes  the  development  of 
tools (i.e. guidance or other type of documents) that will ensure that adaptation to climate 
change  is  taken  into  account  in  a  systematic  way  when  new  European  standards  are 
developed. The Commission intends to receive first results by 2015.  

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5.1.2.  Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environment Assessment  

The  Environmental  Impact  Assessment  (EIA)  and  the  Strategic  Environmental 
Assessment (SEA) can be appropriate instruments to mainstream adaptation, helping to 
improve the climate resilience of infrastructure.  

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a procedural and systematic tool that 
is  in  principle  well  suited  to  incorporate  considerations  of  climate  change  impacts  and 
adaptation within existing modalities for project design, approval, and implementation.  

The  EIA  Directive  requires  that  environmental  impact  assessments  shall  identify, 
describe and assess the direct and indirect effects of a project on the human beings, fauna 
and flora, soil, water, air, climate, the landscape, material assets and cultural heritage and 
the  interactions  between  these  factors  (Article  3).   The  Directive  is  currently  under 
revision41,  proposing  new,  clearer  amendments  towards  addressing  new  challenges,  i.e. 
biodiversity,  climate  change,  disaster  risks  and  availability  of  natural  resources 
throughout  the  whole  EIA  process...  In  addition,  a  new  “Practical  Guidance  for 
Integrating  Climate  Change  and  Biodiversity  into  Environmental  Impact  Assessment 
(EIA)  Procedures”  is  under  way,  aiming  at  supporting  EU  Member  States,  its 
administration, public and private authorities and planning bodies. 

The  Strategic  Environment  Assessment  (SEA)  can  also  serve  as  an  effective  tool  for 
climate change adaptation, especially by introducing climate change considerations into 
development  and  planning  processes.  The  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change 
(IPCC) concluded that consideration of climate change impacts at the planning stage is 
key  to  boosting  adaptive  capacity:  “One  way  of  increasing  adaptive  capacity  is  by 
introducing  the  consideration  of  climate  change  impacts  in  development  planning,  for 
example,  by  including  adaptation  measures  in  land-use  planning  and  infrastructure 
design.”42 

The  SEA  provides  a  framework  for  assessing  and  managing  a  broad  range  of 
environmental  risks  which  may  contribute  to  the  integration  (or  “mainstreaming”)  of 
climate change considerations into plans and programmes (P/Ps) that fall into the scope 
of the SEA Directive43. The integration of climate change into strategic planning through 
the application of SEA should lead to better informed, evidence-based PPs that are more 
sustainable in the context of a changing climate, and more capable of delivering progress 
on human development. 

As  evidence  for  and  awareness  of  the  risks  associated  with  climate  change  and  its 
impacts  grows,  plans  and  programmes  subject  to  SEA  often  need  to  incorporate 
considerations  of  climate  change.  However,  experience  and  empirical  evidence  on  the 
inclusion  of  climate  change  adaptation  considerations  in  P/Ps  through  SEA  is  not  yet 
fully  developed.  This  is  partly  linked  to  the  fact  that  the  notion  of  climate  change 
adaptation  in  planning  processes  is  relatively  recent.  Moreover,  the  primary  focus  of 
SEAs so far has been to evaluate the impact of a P/P on the environment rather than the 

41 

42 

43 

Proposal  for  a  Directive  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  amending  Directive 
2011/92/EU  on  the  assessment  of  the  effects  of  certain  public  and  private  projects  on  the 
environment COM(2012)628. 
IPCC  (2007),  "Summary  for  Policymakers",  Climate  Change  2007:  Impacts,  Adaptation  and 
Vulnerability,[Contribution  of  Working  Group  II  to  the  Fourth  Assessment  Report  of  the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der 
Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p.20. 
Directive 2001/42/EC of 27/06/2001of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2001 
on assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment. 

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impact of environmental change on a P/P. However, additional guidance for integrating 
climate change and biodiversity in SEA is under way, also providing a clearer picture of 
how  to  target  climate  change  adaptation  in  the  context  of  the  Strategic  Environmental 
Assessment (SEA) Directive. 

The early assessment of climate resilience of proposed projects could also be advised in 
the  context  of  the  intended  streamlining  of  environmental  assessment  procedures 
under  the  new  TEN-E  Guidelines,  with  a  view  to  achieving  faster,  better  and  more 
sustainable permitting of energy infrastructure projects of common interest. 

5.1.3.  Framework for the assessment and management of flood risks 

Floods can have major negative impacts on infrastructure with damages to human health, 
the  environment,  cultural  heritage  and  economic  activity.  Infrastructure  therefore  needs 
to  be  designed  to  withstand  potential  flooding,  also  taking  into  account  the  potential 
impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of floods. In the design of flood 
defense infrastructure, changing flood intensities and patterns need to be considered.  

The  European  Union's  Floods  Directive  (2007/60/EC)  is  an  existing  legal  instrument 
which  establishes  a  framework  for  the  assessing  and  managing  flood  risks.  It  aims  at 
reducing adverse consequences for floods and calls for adequate information tools. The 
Directive requires the establishment of flood hazard maps, flood risk maps and flood risk 
management plans. 

From the end of 2013, flood hazard and risk maps shall be made publically available for 
the following scenarios: 

a) floods with low probability, or extreme event scenarios, 

b) floods with a medium probability (likely return period ≥ 100 years), 

c) floods with a high probability. 

These flood risk maps shall display the flood extent, the water depths and the water flow. 
They are helping to identify which already existing infrastructure is under risk or which 
infrastructure might be at risk if it would be built within an area of potential significant 
flood risk. The maps can serve as a valuable tool for identifying current and future flood 
risks and thus support investment decisions and spatial planning.  

The Directive also asks Member States to develop cross-sectorial flood risk management 
plans  which  include  measures  on  prevention,  protection  and  preparedness.  They  are 
based on existing land-use policies, planning processes, engineering and non-engineering 
options  and  involve  both  public  and  private  actors.  Regular  updates  of  maps  and  plans 
(every six years) will enable authorities to base their scenarios on the latest findings of 
climate change research. 

5.1.4.  Climate “proofing” of infrastructure 

An  assessment  of  an  infrastructure  's  risk-exposure  and  vulnerability  to  climate  change 
impacts  is  vital  to  guarantee  its  long-term  sustainability.  Accordingly,  for  some  EU 
policy  areas,  climate  resilience  has  already  been  taken  up  as  a  parameter  in  obligatory 
cost-benefit  analyses  during  the  the  project  development  phase.44  Evidence45  also 

44 

For example, the proposal for 'guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure' COM(2011) 658 
includes,  in  annex  V,  the  'system  resilience,  including  disaster  and  climate  resilience,  and  system 

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suggests  however,  that  there  is  a  certain  lack  of  awareness  of  project  promoters  for 
climate  issues  and  insufficient  knowlegde  on  how  to  conduct  the  climate  resilience 
checks for projects, especially private sector-driven projects. 

To  support  project  managers  to  make  their  physical  assets  more  climate  resilient,  the 
Commission  will  publish,  as  part  of  the  EU  Adaptation  Strategy  package,  "Guidelines 
for  project  managers:  Making  vulnerable  investment  climate  resilient"46.  They 
include  a  methodology  and  step-by-step  guidance  to  systematically  assess  the  climate 
resilience  of  infrastructure  projects  and  improve  their  sustainability  and  liability  in 
changing climate conditions. The guidelines are intended to complement existing project 
appraisal and development procedures but not to replace them. 

Such  climate  proofing  can  be  expected  to  increase  costs  for  infrastructure  projects.  A 
World Bank study47 found that the net cost of adapting infrastructure to climate change is 
no more than 1-2% of the total cost of providing that infrastructure. However, at the same 
time,  climate  resilience  may  decrease  costs  over  a  longer  period  as  it  helps  preventing 
damages  to  and  interruptions  of  infrastructures.  Overall,  the  cost  of  adaptation  appears 
small in relation to other factors that may influence the future costs of infrastructure. 

The  Commission  strongly  encourages  the  use  of  the  guidelines,  both  in  EU-funded 
projects  and  more  widely.  They  sit  within  the  evolving  policy  context  on  adaptation  in 
the Commission, which is seeing climate resilience being incorporated into a number of 
policy areas and financing instruments of relevance to asset and infrastructure.  

Given the important role of EU-funded infrastructure projects in Europe's infrastructure 
investment, a coherent climate proofing of EU-funded infrastucture projects48 (e.g. in the 
cost-benefit  analysis  or  environmental  impact  assessment)  could  not  only  help  in 
ensuring greater sustainability of action but also in promoting climate change adaptation 
as  a  EU  policy  priority.  'Leading  by  good  example'  could  also  trigger  important  spill-
overs  to  project  development  approaches  for  other  public  and  private  infrastructure 
projects. 

Examples of European financial institutions addressing climate risk and adaptation 
in project appraisal and development49 

45 

46 

47 
48 

49 

resilient, 

conducted 

security,  notably  for  European  critical  infrastructure  as  defined  in  Directive  2008/114/EC'  as  an 
aspect to be considered for cost-benefit analyses for electricity transmission and storage.  
Agrawala,  S.,  et  al.,  (2011), "Private  Sector  Engagement  in  Adaptation  to  Climate  Change: 
Approaches  to  Managing  Climate  Risks",  OECD  Environment  Working  Papers,  No.  39,  OECD 
Publishing. 
European  Commission  (2012),  Guidelines  for  Project  Managers:  Making  vulnerable  investments 
no. 
climate 
071303/2011/610951/SER/CLIMA.C3. 
The World Bank (2009), The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure, Washington.  
The  2009  White  Paper  Adapting  to  climate  change:  towards  a  European  framework  for  action: 
"Infrastructure projects which receive EU funding should take climate-proofing into account based 
on methodologies to be developed. These methodologies would then be incorporated into the TEN-
T, TEN-E guidelines and EU Cohesion Policy."  
Summary results of a review of eight financial institutions and their screening criteria and appraisal 
tools  for  climate  related  finance.  The  study  for  DG  CLIMA,  Cooperation  with  EU  financial 
institutions:  climate  related  standards  in  assessing  investments  and  infrastructure  projects  is  in 

and  COWI  A/S, 

by  Acclimatise 

contract 

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European  Investment  Bank  (EIB)  have  recently  developed  a  number  of  sector 
strategies which include addressing climate change adaptation. The EIB will only finance 
projects  that  fulfil  the  requirements  described  in  their  Environmental  and  Social 
Statement  and  Handbook.  This  includes  projects  applying  cost  effective,  appropriate 
adaptation  measures  where  there  is  a  risk  of  significant  adverse  impacts  from  climate 
change  and  increased  frequency  of  extreme  weather  events.  The  EIB  also  actively 
promote adaptation projects such as water resource management. 

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) undertook a project to 
develop a methodology for understanding the risks posed by climate change and impacts 
on the bank’s operations. This is helping climate resilience to be included in investment 
projects  where  appropriate.  The  project  developed  guidance  and  practical  tools  to 
integrate  climate  risk  assessment  and  adaptation  into  EBRD’s  project  cycle.  EBRD  is 
also  participating  in  the  Pilot  Programme  for  Climate  Resilience  (PPCR),  which  is 
pioneering pro-adaptation technical assistance and investment projects. 

KfW  Entwicklungsbank’s  projects  undergo  a  systematic  two  step  climate  change 
assessment  to  ensure  potential  impacts  are  managed  and  opportunities  are  capitalised. 
The  first  step  is  an  initial  assessment  to  assess  risks  of  anticipated  climate  change  and 
opportunities  for  additional  mitigation  measures.  If  significant  climate  change  risks  or 
mitigation  potentials  are  identified,  a  more  detailed  second  stage  is  undertaken.  A 
modification of the project design, the implementation of risk mitigation measures or an 
additional project phase could result from this in-depth analysis. 

5.2. 

Financing climate resilient infrastructure 

Financing  the  adaptation  of  existing  and  the  climate-resilient  construction  of  new 
infrastructure  is  a  major  challenge.  This  investment  need  cannot  be  met  by  traditional 
sources of public financing alone. Indeed, public capital investment in infrastructure has 
on  average  declined  in  OECD  countries  over  the  last  decades.50  This  is  linked  to  a 
potentially new role of the public sector for infrastructure investment. Infrastructure was 
viewed  as  a  public  good,  and  most  countries’  infrastructures  have  been  built  and 
maintained  with  public  money.  With  increasing  constraints  on  public  finances,  the 
maintenance  of  existing  systems  and  the  construction  of  new  facilities  are  delayed  in 
many parts of Europe.  

This significant infrastructure investment gap will need to be bridged by both the public 
and  the  private  sector,  including  institutional  investors.  Public-private  partnership 
structures (PPP) are emerging as popular models for funding infrastructure investment. 
Aside from the simple need for new financing sources, PPPs can deliver extra-benefits, 
such as skills brought by the private sector or faster implementation of projects.  

Failure to make significant progress towards bridging the infrastructure gap could prove 
costly  in  terms  of  slower  economic  growth  and  loss  of  international  competitiveness. 
Economic  infrastructure  drives  competitiveness  and  supports  economic  growth  by 

progress at the time of writing these Guidelines, and is being undertaken by the consortium AEAT, 
ODI and Adelphi. 
The  OECD  average  ratio  of  capital  spent  in  fixed  investment  (mainly  infrastructure)  to  GDP  fell 
from above 4% in 1980 to approx 3% in 2005. See OECD (2011) 

50 

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increasing  private  and  public  sector  productivity,  reducing  business  costs,  diversifying 
means of production and creating jobs.51  

The  following  section  will  focus  on  three  aspects  which  should  deserve  particular 
attention in the on-going debate on climate adaptation financing: 

1.  the EU's contribution to financing climate-resilient infrastructure investment; 
2.  private-sector infrastructure investment; and 
3.  the role of institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies. 

5.2.1.  EU financing  

The  European  Union  is  a  major  investor  in  public  infrastructure  projects.  European, 
investment-based development policies such as EU cohesion policy, TEN-T and TEN-E, 
help overcoming gaps in infrastructure needs, especially in Convergence regions in order 
to generate the preconditions for growth and jobs.  

The EU primarily addresses this issue through EU cohesion policy and in particular in 
less  developed  Member  States  and  regions  which  have  a  low  endowment  of  basic 
infrastructure.  The  policy  aims  at  creating  growth  and  jobs  through  delivering  Europe 
2020 and thereby strengthening social, economic and territorial cohesion in the EU. For 
EU cohesion policy, the funds at its disposal amount to some € 344 billion in the current 
2007–2013  period.  The  largest  share  is  allocated  to  the  Convergence  Objective  (€  212 
billion)  covering  significant  shares  in  infrastructure  investment  in  the  100  least 
prosperous  NUTS  2  regions.  Planned  investment  in  transport  infrastructure  alone 
amounts to some EUR 81.7 billion. In addition, the cohesion fund (€ 70 billion) supports 
investment  in  transport  and  environmental  infrastructure  in  the  15  Member  States  with 
the lowest levels of national income. Combining different EU sources, it is estimated that 
some EUR 400 billion have been invested in the TEN-T network projects since 1986 – 
almost a third coming from EU sources, much of it from the Cohesion Fund. 52 The TEN-
T budget for 2007-2013 amounts to EUR 8 billion. 

EU grants for infrastructure projects are often combined with loans from the European 
Investment Bank. The Bank’s targeted lending programmes are structured on the basis 
of its public policy objectives of economic and social cohesion, growth and employment, 
environmental  sustainability  and  climate  action.  In  2012,  individual  loans  for  a  total  of 
€ 23.4 billion  (equivalent  to  52.3%  of  total  lending  inside  the  EU)  were  made  for 
infrastructure (i.a. energy, transport, water supply). The Bank recognises that adaptation 
to  climate  change  is  necessary  and  aims  to  actively  promote  climate  resilience  and 
adaptation  in  the  projects  it  finances.    In  2011  the  EIB's  lending  volume  for  dedicated 
adaptation projects inside the European Union was € 873.56 million. 

Overall,  the  share  of  financing  provided  by  the  European  Union  for  climate-resilient 
infrastructure illustrates a high – and growing – demand for climate investment.  

51 

52 

Kennedy,  C.  and  J.  Corfee-Morlot  (2012),  Mobilising  investment  in  low  carbon,  climate  resilient 
infrastructure, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 46, Paris. 
European  Commission  (2010),  Investing  in  Europe's  future:  Fifth  report  on  economic,  social  and 
territorial cohesion, Brussels. 

EN 

26 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
The European Union will step up its efforts in financing climate-resilient infrastructures 
in  the  2014-2020  budgetary  period.  It  is  foreseen53  that  a  minimum  of  20%  of  the 
overall 2014-2020 EU budget will go in climate-related investments. This is expected to 
have  significant  impact  on  infrastructure  in  Europe's  less  developed  regions  (formerly 
"converenge  regions"),  where  most  EU  funding  will  be  allocated.  However,  the  newly 
introduced Connecting Europe Facility will also be available in more developed regions. 
The  proposed  funding  plan  is  intended  to  speed  up  long-term  investments  in  roads, 
railways,  energy  grids,  pipelines  and  high-speed  broadband  networks.  Using  a 
significant,  dedicated  EU  budget,  the  facility  unites  different  networking  infrastructure 
policies  under  one  umbrella  and  is  expected  to  create  additional  synergies  between 
different sectors. 

EU climate investment in action: the Port of Rotterdam (NL) 

In  2012,  the  European  Investment  Bank  has  granted  a  €  900  million  loan  for  a  20% 
expansion of the Port of Rotterdam.  The funds are part of the 'Maasvlakte 2' project and 
will  finance  part  of  the  €  3  bn  in  land  reclamation.  The  port  authority  will  enlarge  the 
port area by 2000 hectares, bring the coastline 3.5 km further in the sea and build a deep-
sea  container  and  specialist  facilities.  Europe's  largest  port  will  see  important 
improvements 
the  European  Union  by 
accommodating increasing traffic and economic links.  

inside  and  outside 

that  will  benefit 

The  EIB  provides  a  long-term  loan  over  30  years  for  an  important  project  that  will 
improve  road  and  rail  tracks,  waterways,  including  5  km  of  quayside  and  12  km  of 
seawalls, all of which have been designed to adapt to future climate change impacts, such 
as  storms  and  sea-level  rise.  Furthermore,  environmental  aspects  are  cured,  such  as 
including  a  cycle  path,  a  beach,  a  railway  line,  a  sea  bed  protection  area  reservoir  and 
enlarging the dune area. 

5.2.2.  Private-sector investment and business opportunities  

A changing climate represents both a threat to economic activity and physical assets and 
an  opportunity  for  new  businesses  and  investment.  Considering  these  risks  and 
opportunities, the private sector's adaptive practices are two-fold: 

First, companies aim at value protection to ensure the resilience of physical assets and 
planning responses to maintain business as usual. Companies are increasingly  expected 
to demonstrate their long-term resilience, helping shareholders to understand the risk that 
climate  change  presents  to  their  portfolios.  Physical  risks  to  fixed  assets  and 
infrastructure, impacts on supply chains, and shifting patterns in demand for goods and 
services  could  potentially  also  become  material  factors  in  the  corporate  credit  risk 
assessment of banks.54 When ensuring a company's business resilience, the protection of 
infrastructure plays a central role, both in terms of company buildings and of other assets 
ensuring  supply  chains  (e.g.  transportation  fleets).  Therein,  regional  events  can  have 

53 

54  

EN 

Amended proposal for a Council Regulation laying down the multiannual financial framework for 
the years 2014-2020, COM (2012) 388 final of 6/7/2012, Brussels. 
HSBC  Case 
risk,  Available  at: 
http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/nairobi_work_programme/private_sector_initiative/application/pdf/
hsbc.pdf   

insurance  products  and  climate 

study  on  New 

27 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
global  impacts  (e.g.  the  floods  in  Thailand  in  2011  caused  significant  physical  damage 
and major disruption to supply chains across the globe).   

Secondly,  climate  change  adaptation  offers  possibilities  for  value  creation.  Adaptive 
practices  are  targeted  at  devising  solutions  that  contribute  to  the  ability  to  pursue  new 
revenue-generating  opportunities  and  help  suppliers,  stakeholders,  and  customers  adapt 
to  a  changing  climate.55  Innovation  in  infrastructure  solutions  to  meet  new  needs 
stemming from climate change effects can be considered as an important driver of future 
business  and  growth  in  the  SME  sector  –  provided  that  the  right  mix  of  skills  and 
expertise is developed to respond to such demand.  

Overall,  the  necessary  investment  in  private  infrastructure  is  expected  to  trigger 
additional  investment  and  to  create  jobs.  Finding  new  solution  to  better  adapt 
infrastructure  to  climate  risks  and  unlocking  this  potential  for  value  creation  can 
additionally  foster  economic  growth  in  Europe.  Adaptive  business  practices  which  are 
strategic, not reactive, can make an important contribution to Europe 2020. 56  

Climate risk awareness of businesses: Carbon Disclosure Project 

The  Carbon  Disclosure  Project's  "Global  500  Climate  Change"  report  (2012)57  which 
provides  information  on  adaptation  in  the  world's  500  largest  companies  shows  that 
increasing  incidents  of  extreme  weather  events  have  significant  impact  on  commercial 
infrastructures. Disrupted business operations and supply chains, caused by droughts in 
the  Russia  or  floods  in  the  USA,  can  have  global  business  impacts.  In  2012,  81%  of 
reporting companies identified physical risk from climate change, with 37% perceiving 
these risks as a real and present danger, up from 10% in 2010. 2012 has also seen a 10% 
increase  year-on-year  in  companies  integrating  climate  change  into  their  business 
strategies  (2012:  78%,  2011:  68%).  Overall,  climate  change  hasn’t  dropped  off  the 
board’s  agenda  during  the  economic  downturn.  In  2012,  96%  of  the  world's  largest 
companies reported that they have board or senior executive oversight of climate change. 

5.2.3.  The role of insurance  

Insurance  plays  a  central  role  in  handling  climate  risks  related  to  infrastructure  and 
physical assets. The 2013 Commission "Green Paper on the prevention and insurance of 
disasters"  discusses  this  aspect  further  and  consults  the  wider  public  on  possible  future 
legislative action. 

55   

Finley,  T.  and  Schuchard,  R.  (2011),  Adapting  to  Climate  Change:  A  Guide  for  the  Energy  and 
BSR. 
Utility 
Industry, 
http://www.bsr.org/reports/BSR_Climate_Adaptation_Issue_Brief_Energy_Utilities.pdf 

56    According to the Flash Eurobarometer 342 on "SMEs, Resource efficiency and Green markets" only 
a minority of EU SMEs (26%) is providing green services and products to adapt, mitigate or restore 
environmental quality. At the same time, SMEs are discouraged to adopt a more pro-active stance 
on  climate  change  adaptation  and  mitigation  because  of  specific  obstacles,  such  as  limited 
knowledge,  information  and  technical  support  as  well  as  lack  of  time  and  resources  to  make  the 
necessary invesments. 
CDP  –  Carbon  Disclosure  Project  (2012):  Climate  Resilient  Stock  Exchanges  –  Beyond  the 
at 
Disclosure 
https://www.cdproject.net/CDPResults/CDP-Global-500-Climate-Change-Report-2012.pdf  

Point.  Carbon  Disclosure 

London.  Available 

Tipping 

Project, 

57  

EN 

28 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
Insurance  can  be  considered  from  three  perspectives:  as  a  market,  as  an  instrument  for 
adaptation,  and  as  an  industry  and  investor.  All  three  perspectives  are  important  when 
considering climate change and infrastructure.  

Climate  change  could  severely  affect  the  functioning  of  insurance  markets  for 
infrastructure.  The  impacts  are  likely  to  be  in  the  same  areas  where  the  catastrophe 
insurance  markets  already  experience  difficulties.  These  may  intensify  as  a  result  of 
climate  change.  Three  main  areas  are  identified  that  might  be  affected  by  potential 
impacts: the risk transfer conditions (price/coverage), the availability58 and the demand. 
It might be expected that climate change will increase the demand for insurance, due to 
higher risk. Also, if not addressed, climate change could lead to insurance becoming less 
affordable  or  unaffordable,  particularly  for  lower  income  population.  The  forthcoming 
Commission Green Paper on the prevention and insurance of disasters will discuss these 
aspects more in detail.  

Insurance can also be a valuable tool for adaptation. It can support adaptive practices in 
three main ways: by helping to manage climate change risks; by providing incentives for 
climate  risk  prevention;  and  by  disseminating  information  on  climate  change  risks  and 
risk prevention measures.  Insurance should be part of strategic risk management which 
needs to be observed for existing assets and activities, as well as new ones. In order to 
give incentives for risk prevention, insurance prices should be risk based and adequately 
adjusted  according  to  risk  prevention  efforts  taken  by  customers.  Finally,  insurance 
sector  organisations  are  among  the  entities  which  could  provide  climate  change  risk 
related  information  to  clients,  since  they  are  already  involved  in  the  business  of  risk 
management.59 

Together with other institutional investors (such as pension funds or mutual funds), the 
insurance  sector  can  also  play  a  role  in  future  infrastructure  investment.  With  over 
US$65  trillion  in  assets  held  at  the  end  of  2009  in  OECD  countries  alone,  institutional 
investors could be key sources of capital, financing long-term, productive activities that 
support sustainable growth, such as green energy and infrastructure projects. 60 

Availability of insurance for physical assets 

As  a  result  of  increasing  climate  risks  insurance  might  become  unavailable  in  certain 
areas. It is widely accepted that natural events that are less frequent than 1 in 75 years are 
readily insurable. Swiss Re61 indicates that for risks with a 100 to 200 years return period 
(0.5% to 1.0% probability), the risk premium is 3.5% of the value of the assets. For more 
extreme risks, the premium therefore becomes too high as an annual charge. Practice in 
the  UK  broadly  confirms  this  –  the  limit  for  an  insurable  flood  risk  when  there  is  no 

58  

59  

60  

61  
62  

‘Availability’ means is the hazard covered at all, as opposed to ‘coverage’ i.e. how extensive is the 
insurance in terms of items and values. 
Andrew  Dlugolecki  (2012):  "Insurance  and  climate  change:  A  report  for  DG  Climate  Action 
(CLIMA) under the project 'Support to the development of the EU strategy for adaptation to climate 
change'”.  
OECD  (2011),  “Pension  Funds  Investment  in  Infrastructure:  A  Survey”,  International  Futures 
Programme, Project on Strategic Transport Infrastructure to 2030. 
Swiss Re (2007) Flood: an Insurable Risk. Swiss Re, Zurich. 
ABI  (2008)  Revised  Statement  of  Principles  on  the  Provision  of  Flood    Insurance.  July  2008. 
Association of British Insurers, London.  

EN 

29 

   EN 

 
                                                 
adverse selection, and the risk is bundled with other hazards is a 75 year frequency, i.e. 
1.3% probability.62  
In a press release on 31st January, 2012, the Association of British Insurers warned that as 
many  as  200,000  homes  face  difficulty  obtaining  flood  insurance  when  the  current 
agreement with the Government on flood insurance ceases in 2013. Those houses face a 
risk of greater  than 1-in-75 years, and the vast majority are significantly undercharged, 
due to cross-subsidies from less risky homes.63 

63  

ABI  (2011)  Under-pricing  of  the  flood  element  of  home  insurance  for  domestic  customers  at 
significant risk. Research Brief. Association of British Insurers, London.  

EN 

30 

   EN 

 
                                                                                                                                                 
6. 

ANNEX 

6.1. 

Annex 1: Climate risk and impacts on transport infrastructure 

TYPE 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURES 

RISKS 

Rail 

Summer heat 

RAIL 
infrastructure 

•  Rail buckling;  
•  material fatigue; increased  
• 
• 

instability of embankments;  
overheating of equipment (e.g. 
engine ventilation, 
acclimatisation);  
increase wildfires can damage 
infrastructure 

• 

Winter cold/ice 

• 

Ice on trains and catenary 

REGIONS  
mainly 
affected 

Southern 
Europe  
medium 
negative until 
2025  
and  
high negative 
until 2080; 

West, East and 
Central EU  
medium 
negative until 
2080 
Northern 
Europe,  
Central Europe 
European wide 

TIME 
FRAME  
of expected 
impact 
Medium 
negative (2025; 
2080)  
to  
high negative 
(2080) 

Medium 
negative (2025; 
2080) 
Medium 
negative 
(2025)  
to  
high negative 
(2080) 

ROAD 
infrastructure 

Roads 
(including 
bridges,  
tunnels, etc.) 

Extreme 
precipitation 

Extreme storms 

In general: 

Summer heat 

Extreme 
precipitation/ 
floods 

Extreme  

storm events 

In general: 

•  Damage on infrastructure due to 
flooding and/or landslides;  
scour to structures;  
destabilization of embankment 

• 
• 

•  Damage on infrastructure such 

as signals, power cable etc. (e.g. 
due to falling trees, etc. 

No information  No information 

•  Reduced safety;  
• 
• 
• 

increased cost for reparation and maintenance;  
disruption of “just in time" delivery of goods and passengers 
Pavement deterioration and 
subsidence;  
•  melting tarmac;  
• 

Medium 
negative (2025; 
2080) 
to  
high negative 
(2080) 

West, East  
and Central 
EU (2080) 

Southern 
Europe (2025),  

• 

reduced life of asphalt road 
surfaces (e.g. surface cracks);  
increase wildfires can damage 
infrastructure; 
expansion/buckling of bridges 
•  Damage on infrastructure (e.g. 

pavements, road washout);  
• 
road submersion;  
• 
scour to structures;  
• 
underpass flooding;  
• 
overstrain drainage systems;  
• 
risk of landslides;  
• 
instability of embankments 
•  Damage on infrastructure; 

roadside trees/vegetation can 
block roads 

Speed reduction;  
road closure or road safety hazards;  
disruption of “just in time" delivery of goods;  

• 
• 
• 
•  welfare losses; 
• 

higher reparation and maintenance costs 

European wide 

Medium 
negative 
(2025) 
 to  
high negative 
(2080) 

No information  No information 

Coastal roads 

Sea level rise 

Extreme  
storm events 

•  Damage infrastructure due to 

flooding;  
coastal erosion;  
road closure 

• 
• 

European wide 

Medium 
negative 
(2080) 
No information  No information 

EN 

31 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TYPE 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURES 

RISKS 

Heavy 
precipitation 
events 

Mountain road 

Sewerage 
system 

Permafrost 
degradation 
Heavy 
precipitation 
events 

•  Decrease of stability; rockfalls; 
landslides; road closure; 
•  Overloaded sewerage system 
can cause road flooding and 
water pollution 

AVIATION 
infrastructure 

Airports 
(including 
runways) 

Summer heat 

•  Greater need for ground 

• 

• 

• 

• 

cooling;  
degradation of runways and 
runways foundations; 
higher density altitudes causing 
reduced engine combustion 
efficiency;  
decrease airport lift and 
increased runway lengths 
Flood damage to runways and 
other infrastructure;  

•  water runoff exceeds capacity of 

drainage system 

Heavy 
precipitation 
events 

Extreme storms 

•  Wind damage to terminals, 

REGIONS  
mainly 
affected 

European wide 

TIME 
FRAME  
of expected 
impact 
Medium 
negative 
(2025)  
to high 
negative 
(2080) 

No information  No information 

Medium 
negative 
(2025)  
to high 
negative 
(2080) 
Medium 
negative (2025; 
2080) 
to  
high negative 
(2080) 

Medium 
negative 
(2025) to high 
negative 
(2080) 
No information 

Medium 
negative 
(2080) 

European wide 

Southern 
Europe (2025),  

West, East and 
Central EU 
(2080) 

European wide 

No information 

European wide 

Sea level rise 

In general: 

High  
river flow  
(e.g. extreme 
precipitation, 
snow melt) 

Low  
river flow (e.g. 
drought) 

• 

• 
• 
• 
• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

SHIPPING 
infrastructure 

navigation, equipment, signage 

Flooding of runways, 
outbuildings and access roads 

Interruption and disruption to services supplied and to ground access;  
periodic airport closures;  
higher maintenance costs 
Problems for the passage of 
bridges;  
speed limitations because of 
dike instability;  
some restrictions to the height of 
vessels 
Strong restrictions to the loading 
capacity;  
navigation problems, speed 
reduction 

South, East 
and Central 
Europe;  

Medium 
negative 
(2080) 

European wide 

Medium 
negative 
(2025)  
to high 
negative 
(2080) 

in 2080 also 
Western 
Europe 

Inland 
shipping 

Change in  

ice cover 

Maritime 
transport 

In general: 

Sea level rise 

Change in  
sea conditions 
Less days  

EN 

In  general  shorter  periods  of  ice  cover  can 
be expected;  

No information  No information 

Nevertheless  warm  and  early  winters, 
in  air 
followed  by  a  rapid  decrease 
thicker  or 
temperature,  may  result 
rougher  ice  cover  formation  and  thus,  lead 
to ice jams, damage to navigation signs and 
infrastructure (e.g. locks) 

in 

stop of inland shipping;  

•  Disruption of “just in time" delivery of goods;  
• 
•  welfare losses 
•  Navigability could be affected 

by changes in sedimentation 
rates and location of shoals; 
more frequent closure 

•  More severe storms and extreme 
waves might affect ships 
•  Reduce problems with ice 

32 

Medium 
negative 
(2080) 

European wide 

No information  No information 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TYPE 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURES 

RISKS 

below freezing 

Reduced  

sea ice 

accumulation on vessels, decks, 
riggings and docks;  

•  Occurrence of dangerous ice fog 

• 
• 
• 

Improved access;  
longer shipping seasons;  
new shipping routes  

Ports 

Extreme  
storm events 
Sea level rise 

•  Devastation of infrastructure; 
• 

Interruptions and bottlenecks in 
the flow of products through 
ports 

TIME 
FRAME  
of expected 
impact 
Medium 
positive (2080) 

REGIONS  
mainly 
affected 

European wide 

No information 

Summer 
sea ice could 
completely 
disappear  
in the Arctic 
Ocean 
somewhere 
between  
2013-2040 
No information  No information 

Medium 
negative 
(2080) 

Medium 
negative 
(2025)  

European wide 

European wide 

URBAN 
TRANSPORT 

Urban 
transport  

(road 
infrastructure,  
bike lanes, 
walkways,  
rail 
infrastructure, 
waterways,  
public and 
private 
transport) 

Floods/ 

landslide 

In general: 

Temperature 
increase  
and  
heat waves 

Heavy 
precipitation 
events (extreme 
flash floods) 

Sea level rise and 
storm surage 
flooding 

to high 
negative 
(2080) 
•  Disruption of “just in time" delivery of goods;  
•  welfare losses;  
• 
• 

increased cost for reparation and maintenance 
Medium 
Increase of the heat island effect  
negative  
(e.g. melting asphalt, increased 
to  extreme 
asphalt rutting due to material 
negative 
constraints, thermal expansion 
on bridge expansion joints and 
paved surfaces, and damage to 
bridge structure material) 

•  Damage to infrastructure due to 
flooding, property at risk due to 
location, heavy water runoff 

Medium 
negative 
(2025;2080)  
to high 
negative 
(2080) 

•  Risk of inundation of road 

infrastructure and flooding of 
underground tunnels, 

•  Degradation of the road surface 
and base layers from salt 
penetration 

Medium 
negative  
to extreme 
negative 

2025: 
Southern, 
Eastern EU 

2080: 
Northern, 
Southern, 
 Eastern,  
Central EU 

2025: 
Southern, 
Western 

2080: Eastern, 
Southern, 
Northern, 
Western, 
Central 
2025: 
Southern, 
Western, 
Northern EU 

2080: 
Southern, 
Western, 
Northern EU 

European wide 

Extreme storms,  

strong winds 

•  Damages, increase of 
maintenance cost 

Small to 
medium 
impacts 

EN 

33 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6.2. 

Annex 2: Climate risks and impacts on energy infrastructure 

TRANSMISSION 
AND 
DISTRIBUTION 
infrastructure  

TYPE 

Primarily 
electrical 
transmission and 
distribution 
networks 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURES 

Extreme high 
temperatures 

RISKS 

•  Decreased network 

capacity 

Snow, icing, 
storms 

Heavy 
precipitation 

• 

Increased chances on 
damages to energy 
networks/blackout 

•  Mass movements 

(landslides, mud and 
debris flows) causing 
damages 

Primarily 
Transmission 
networks (oil 
and gas) 

Melting 
permafrost 

• 

Ties of gas pipelines in 
permafrozen ground 
cause technical problems 
(this is touching only 
arctic supply pipelines 
and not the EastWest gas 
pipelines, since the latter 
ones are not grounded in 
permafrost) 

TIME 
FRAME  
of expected 
impact 

Medium 
negative 
(2025)  
to extreme 
negative 
(2080) 
Medium 
negative  
to low positive 
(2050) 

Time frame, 
magnitudes 
and 
frequencies 
uncertain 
Low for 2025 
and gradually 
increasing 

REGIONS  
mainly 
affected 

EUwide 

NWEU 

Especially 
mountainous 
regions 

Arctic Eurasia 

Primarily 
Storage and 
Distribution 

Higher 
Temperatures 
Storms in 
connection  
with high tides 
and SLR 

•  Reduced throughput 

capacity in gas pipelines 

• 

• 

Threats to refineries and 
coastal pipelines  
due to SLR/high 
tide/storms 

EUwide 

Low for 2025  

and gradually 
increasing 

EN 

34 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
TYPE 

Hydropower, 
 largescale 
(downstream 
facilities) 

ENERGY 
SUPPLY 
AND 
DEMAND 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURES 

Decreased glacial 
run off  
(mid to longterm) 

Extreme low 
rivers 
and stream flows 
during drought 
periods 

Hydropower,  
small scale 
(upstream/alpine) 

Increased glacial 
runoff  
in the short run 

Solar energy (PV 
and thermal) 

Increasing 
temperatures 

Cloudiness 

• 

• 

• 

• 

RISKS 

Increased chance on 
shortage of 
hydropower supply 
in summer at 
downstream 
(pluvialregime fed) 
stations 

Loss of "buffer 
capacities" for 
summer droughts in 
the mid and long run 
due to losses in 
glacier volumes 

Loss in solar cell 
effectivity due to 
higher ambient 
temperatures 
For some regions 
with high potential 
(and existing 
capacities) a 
decrease in 
cloudiness seems 
likely 

Solar irradiation 

Thermal power 
plants (incl. 
nuclear) 

Water 
temperature 
increase 

• 

• 

Inverse proportional 
to cloudiness 
Lower CARNOT 
efficiency due to 
higher ambient and 
cooling water 
temperatures 
•  Risk of flood 

REGIONS  
mainly 
affected 

EUwide 

TIME FRAME  
of expected impact 

Medium negative 
(2025; 2080) 

to high negative 
(2080) 

Mainly Alps 
and 
Scandinavia 

EUwide 

Southern 
Europe: 
positive 

Northern 
Europe: 
negative (highly 
uncertain) 

Short term:  
positive, 

Mid to long term: 
high negative  
(with individual 
glacial volumes, 
regional climates 
and thus different 
time scales) 
Medium (2050) and 
longterm (2080) 
negative 

Highly uncertain: 
medium negative 
(2025), 

No information for 
2080 

(depending largely 
on the uncertain 
climate parameters 
irradiation and 
cloudiness) 

Medium negative 
(2025) to extreme 
negative (2080) 

EUwide 

Floods 

Extreme low 
water flows 

damages due to 
location of most 
thermal facilities at 
water bodies (rivers) 

•  Reduced cooling 
water availability 

EN 

35 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6.3. 

Annex 3: Climate impacts on buildings/construction sector 

CONSTRUCTIO
N  
Infrastructure 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURE
S 

RISKS AND IMPACTS 
RISK 

Potential 
ENVIRO
N-
MENTAL 
impacts 
Pollution 
(waste 
dumps, gas 
stations) 

Potential 
ECONOMIC 
impacts 

Potential  
SOCIAL 
impacts 

Through physical 
damage to buildings 

Water safety of 
inhabitants 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

TIME 
FRAME  
of 
expecte
d 
impact 
2020 
Medium 
/low 

REGIONS 
mainly 
affected 

Cities on 
rivers 

and cities 
with 
inadequate 
drainage 
systems 
Mountain 
areas, 
northern 
Europe 

Mountain 
areas 

2050 
Medium 
/low 

2020 
Medium 
/medium 

Southern 
Europe 

2050 
Medium 
/medium 

2050 
Medium 
/low 

2020 
Medium 
/low 
2080 
Medium 
/low 

Improving 
in NE, 
deterioratin
g in SE 
Europewid
e 

Europewid
e, notably 
south 
Coastal 
cities 

Safety problem 

2020 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

Safety 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

NA 

Health impacts 

Through physical 
damage to buildings, 

Maintainining 
infrastructure 
Through physical 
damage to buildings 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 
Internal water use 
limited.  

Subsidence of 
clayrich soils and 
peat soils causing 
foundation damage 
Decreased labour 
productivity, higher 
costs for cooling, 

 Increased costs for 
emergency 
/medical services 
/supplies 

Changing 
precipitation 
patterns 

Fluvial 
/urban 
drainage 
flooding 

High snow 
load 

NA 

Building and 
infrastructure 
subsidence 
and landslides 

Limitations 
for green 
roofs 

Water 
scarcity, 
drought and 
implications 
for water 
resources 

Temperature 
increases 

Heat/ cold 
related deaths 

NA 

NA 

NA 

Diseases 
(vector and 
waterborne 
diseases) 
Air quality 
and health 

Sea level rise 
and storm 
surge flooding 

Salt water 
intrusion 

Sea level 
rise 

Extreme 
events 
(storms) 

Pollution 
(waste 
dumps, gas 
stations) 

Through physical 
damage to buildings 

Water safety of 
inhabitants 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

Higher 
maintenance/upgradi
ng for/of protective 
installations 
Physical damage to 
buildings 

Maintaining 
infrastructure 

Inconveniences 
by service 
disruption of 
electricity and 
water 

2080 
Low 
/low 
2050 
Low 
/low 

Europewid
e, coastal 
areas 
Europewid
e, coastal 
areas 

NA 

NA 

Direct wind  
storm damage 

Disruption of 
power, 
communicatio
n, other 
services 

EN 

36 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RISKS AND IMPACTS 
RISK 

Potential 
ENVIRO
N-
MENTAL 
impacts 

Potential 
ECONOMIC 
impacts 

Potential  
SOCIAL 
impacts 

REGIONS 
mainly 
affected 

TIME 
FRAME  
of 
expecte
d 
impact 

Wind power generation has to be turned down beyond certain 
wind speed thresholds in order to avoid overheating/overload 
of distribution systems 

SLR  (only in very few offshore cases and considering high 
SLR scenarios) 

North Sea and 
Baltic Sea 
regions 

Referring to 
climate 
model 
outputs, 
future storm 
frequencies 
are highly 
uncertain, 
but might 
increase in 
North and 
Baltic Sea 
(where 
offshore 
wind power 
generation is 
concentrated
) 

Long term 
(2080) 
negative 

Reduced PV efficiency 

Highly 
uncertain 

cf. solar energy 

CLIMATIC 
PRESSURE
S 

Storm 
frequency 
(not severity, 
since 
facilities are 
capable to 
handle 
highest wind 
speeds) 

Melting 
inland 
glaciers and 
water 
expansion 
due to 
temperature 
increase 
Higher 
temperatures 

Altering 
precipitation 
regime 
Higher 
temperatures 

Wind power 
generation 

Reduction of 
electricity 
demand by 
consumer  
(through 
selfsupply of 
e.g. small PV 
units) 
Passive 
heating 
(geothermal) 
Energy 
demand 

Fluctuating groundwater levels 

High AC demand in summer; 
high cooling demand by food industry 

Low heating demand in winter 

Droughts 

High energy demand by pumping for irrigation 

Regions  
with sensitive 
aquifers 
EU wide 

Unpredictabl
e 

Short term 
medium to 
long term 
strong 
negative (i.e. 
raise in 
electricity 
demand in 
summer 
season) 
Positive  

Low 
negative 

Southern and 
Eastern Europe 

EN 

37 

   EN