COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate policy beyond 2020 Consultative Communication
Date: 2013-03-26
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change, international negotiations, reduction of gas emissions

EUROPEAN 
COMMISSION 

Brussels, 26.3.2013  
COM(2013) 167 final 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate 
policy beyond 2020 

Consultative Communication 
{SWD(2013) 97 final} 

EN 

   EN 

 
 
 
  
 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate 
policy beyond 2020 

Consultative Communication 
This Consultative Communication invites a debate with Member States, EU institutions and 
stakeholders on how best to shape the international climate regime between 2020 and 2030. It 
sets  out  a  context  and  poses  a  set  of  questions  to  frame  this  debate.  Further  background  is 
given in a separate staff working document. 

THE URGENT NEED FOR MORE AMBITION 

1. 
The  first  decade  of  the  21st  century  was  the  warmest  on  record  and  the  summer  of  2012 
witnessed  the  unprecedented  melting  of  Arctic  sea  ice.  Extreme  weather  events  witnessed 
during  2012,  such  as  the  extreme  drought  and  wildfires  in  Southern  Europe  and  the  US, 
followed  by  unprecedented  storms  and  flooding  in  parts  of  Asia,  the  Caribbean  and  North 
America, although not individually attributable to climate change, are consistent with science 
projecting that their frequency and impact will increase as our climate changes further. Even 
as  the  global  economic  growth  slowed,  human-induced  emissions  of  the  greenhouse  gases 
(GHGs) that cause global warming continue to rise dramatically. 

Although  the  science  of  climate  change  is  clear  and  the  impacts  are  increasingly  visible, 
actions to address climate change continue to fall far short of what is needed. The most recent 
UNEP "gap report" shows that countries' unconditional pledges to reduce GHG emissions, if 
fully implemented, will deliver no more than one third of what is needed by 2020 to prevent a 
dangerous 2º C rise in global mean temperature above pre-industrial levels. A recent World 
Bank report predicts that even if these pledges are fulfilled there is a 20% likelihood that the 
globe will be on track for more than a 4º C temperature rise by 2100.This would be a more 
than  fivefold  increase  compared  to  the  rise  in  global  temperature  the  world  is  experiencing 
today, with extremely severe risks for vital human support systems. 

Only by acting collectively, and with greater urgency and ambition, can we avoid the worst 
consequences  of  a  rapidly  warming  planet.  Recent  research  and  analysis  reveals  that  this  is 
still within our reach, and that the pathway there promises many other benefits. Countries that 
have  begun  to  pursue  low  carbon  development  strategies  are  demonstrating  that  significant 
reductions  in  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions  can  be  achieved  at  affordable  cost,  and  can 
generate  benefits  as  diverse  as  new  jobs,  national  energy  security,  improved  urban 
transportation,  lower  energy  bills  (through  energy  savings  and  increased  efficiency)  and 
improved air quality. Despite a wide spread acknowledgement that reducing the use of fossil 
fuels is in their national interests, many countries however continue to fear negative economic 
repercussions  or  lack  the  tools  and  means  to  enable  further  action,  especially  in  the  current 
economic context. The result is that global ambition remains insufficient. 

In 2011 the international community launched negotiations on a new international agreement 
to  act  collectively  to  protect  the  earth's  climate  system.  This  agreement,  which  is  to  be 
completed by the end of 2015 and to apply from 2020 onwards, is currently being negotiated 
through a process known as the "Durban Platform for Enhanced Action" (ADP). 

EN 

2 

   EN 

Negotiations under the ADP follow two work streams: the first will adopt a new international 
agreement  by  2015,  the  second  aims  at  increasing  ambition  before  2020,  when  the  2015 
Agreement will enter into force. While this Consultative Communication focuses on the first 
work stream, designing the 2015 Agreement, the actions we take between now and 2020 will 
be crucial to setting policies on the right path. 

2. 

INTERNATIONAL  CLIMATE  POLICY:  STATE  OF  PLAY,  CHALLENGES  AND 
OPPORTUNITIES 2020-2030 

The 2015 Agreement will have to bring together, by 2020, the current patchwork of binding 
and  non-binding  arrangements  under  the  UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change 
(Convention), into a single comprehensive regime. The EU and a number of other European 
countries as well as Australia agreed to join a legally binding 2nd commitment period under 
the  Kyoto  Protocol  as  a  transitional  measure  between  2012  and  2020.  During  this  same 
period, a further sixty countries, including the United States of America (US), major emerging 
economies, low and middle income as well as least developed countries, have pledged to take 
different  types  of  emission  reduction  and  limitation  commitments  under  the  Convention. 
These pledges were triggered by the Copenhagen Climate Conference at the end of 2009 and 
formally submitted as pledges that are not legally binding under the Convention a year later in 
Cancun (see accompanying staff working document for further background). 

The  unilateral,  or  "bottom  up"  nature  of  the  Copenhagen-Cancun  pledging  process  allowed 
for  a  more  inclusive  international  approach.  For  the  first  time  the  US,  China,  India,  Brazil, 
South  Africa,  the  EU  and  others  committed  at  the  international  level  to  specific  domestic 
climate  policies  as  part  of  the  same  initiative.  However,  in  addition  to  being  voluntary,  a 
number  of  the  pledges  made  by  major  economies  are  conditioned,  for  example  on  others 
taking more ambitious action and the availability of financial resources. Most importantly, as 
already mentioned, current pledges, if fully implemented, are expected to deliver less than a 
third of the ambition required to stay below a 2° C temperature rise. 

In shaping the 2015 Agreement we will need to learn from the successes and shortcomings of 
the  Convention,  the  Kyoto  Protocol,  and  the  Copenhagen-Cancun  process.  We  will  need  to 
move beyond the North-South paradigm reflecting the world in the 1990s towards one based 
on  mutual  interdependence  and  shared  responsibility.  The  2015  Agreement  will  need  to 
address the challenge of attracting the participation of all major economies, including the US, 
China, India and Brazil, that have so far resisted legally binding commitments to reduce their 
GHG emissions. It must build on the current frameworks to support countries in their efforts 
to adapt to unavoidable climate change, especially the most vulnerable. Most importantly, it 
must provide a bridge from the current patchwork and bottom up approach, largely based on 
non-binding decisions, to a legally binding agreement that effectively combines a bottom up 
and top down approach and that will put the world on an emissions pathway that will keep the 
global temperature rise below 2º Celsius. 

The  Agreement  will  have  to  reflect  how  the  world  has  changed  since  climate  negotiations 
began in 1990 and how it will continue to change as we approach 2030. It will operate in a 
context in which (see accompanying staff working document): 

•  Scientific advances have removed any reasonable doubt that we are warming the planet; 
•  Emerging economies are an increasing source of economic growth and GHG emissions; 
•  Significant sustainable development challenges remain; 
•  Addressing climate change also brings significant opportunities; 

EN 

3 

   EN 

• 

Increasing  global  trade  will  continue  to  raise  issues  about  production-related  emissions, 
and preventing carbon leakage (carbon intensive activities shifting from high ambition to 
low ambition countries). 

3. 

FOUNDATIONS OF THE 2015 AGREEMENT 

The  process  of  designing  and  implementing  the  2015  Agreement  will  need  to  overcome  a 
number of challenges: 

•  Enabling the necessary ambition for reducing global emissions 

Previous negotiations have led to pledges and commitments that are insufficiently ambitious. 
Avoiding  a  similar  situation  for  the  2015  Agreement  will  be  essential  to  prevent  dangerous 
climate change. For the first time, the current negotiations are to be guided by the long term 
goal  of  putting  the  world  onto  a  pathway  that  will  keep  global  warming  to  below  2°  C 
compared  to  pre-industrial  levels.  However,  it  seems  unlikely  that  governments  will  agree 
precisely how the entirety of this challenge can be shared in an equitable manner in 2015. In 
addition to being grounded on a sense of shared responsibility, and on fair individual starting 
points  for  reaching  that  goal,  the  new  agreement  must  therefore  also  provide  the  tools  and 
processes to enable the further strengthening of individual and collective ambition. It must be 
able  to  adjust  dynamically,  enabling  the  regular  review  and,  inevitably,  strengthening  of 
ambition.  Moreover,  it  must  provide  a  means  of  demonstrating  that  countries  can  do  more 
collectively than they are able do individually and avoid that countries wait for others to act 
first before taking action themselves. And it must provide incentives to encourage ambition, 
and disincentives for low ambition.  

Question 1:  

How  can  the  2015  Agreement  be  designed  to  ensure  that  countries  can  pursue  sustainable 
economic  development  while  encouraging  them  to  do  their  equitable  and  fair  share  in 
reducing global GHG emissions so that global emissions are put on a pathway that allows us 
to meet the below 2°C objective? How can we avoid a repeat of the current situation where 
there is a gap between voluntary pledges and the reductions that are required to keep global 
temperature increase below 2° C? 

•  Enabling  the  contribution  of  all  major  economies  and  all  sectors  in  the  global 

mitigation effort 

Environmental  effectiveness  will  require  contributions  from  all  major  economies  and  all 
sectors  in  a  comparable,  equitable,  transparent  and  accountable  manner  that  minimises  the 
risk  of  carbon  leakage.  Securing  contributions  from  all  major  economies  and  all  sectors  is 
therefore  essential.  Without  such  agreement,  individual  states  and  regions  may  continue  to 
hold back their climate ambition in relation to what their competitors are prepared to do. To 
help avoid this, the 2015 Agreement could both encourage and incentivise countries to adopt 
ambitious  commitments  sooner  rather  than  later  and  help  level  the  playing  field  between 
current leaders and laggards. 

EN 

4 

   EN 

Question 2: 

How can the 2015 Agreement best ensure the contribution of all major economies and sectors 
and minimise the potential risk of carbon leakage between highly competitive economies?  

•  Mainstreaming  climate  change  and  the  mutual  reinforcement  of  processes  and 

initiatives 

Climate change policy can never stand alone but instead must support economic growth and 
the  broader  sustainable  development  agenda,  as  well  as  help  create  new  employment 
opportunities.  Whether  it  addresses  mitigation  or  adaptation,  climate  policy  must  be  fully 
integrated or "mainstreamed" across all policy areas and form a key component in the design 
of  energy,  transport,  industry,  agriculture,  forestry  and  broader  sustainable  development 
policies and strategies.  

The 2015 Agreement must therefore recognise and reinforce broader sustainable development 
objectives  and  support  the  full  integration  of  climate  change  objectives  into  relevant  policy 
areas.  This  includes  the  follow-up  to  the  Rio+20  Conference,  and  the  review  of  the 
Millennium  Development  Goals  (MDG)  by  2015,  as  well  as  the  implementation  of 
agreements  such  as  the  Convention  on  Biological  Diversity.  This  work  provides  an 
opportunity  to  address  challenges  related  to  climate  change  and  its  impacts  on  poverty 
eradication  and  the  three  pillars  of  sustainability  (environmental,  economic  and  social 
development), where it can provide important co-benefits. In this respect, the Commission has 
proposed  a  joint  approach  towards  a  “Decent  Life  for  all  by  2030”  that  brings  together  the 
work strands of the follow-up to Rio+20 and the MDG review. 

Moreover,  it  is  important  to  encourage  bilateral,  plurilateral  and  regional  initiatives  that 
complement  and  accelerate  efforts  under  the  Convention.  These  complementary  initiatives 
could encourage countries, together with the private sector and civil society, to make progress 
in  reducing  emissions  through  more  focused  collective  action.  Current  examples  of  such 
initiatives  include  the  initiative  to  phase  out  fossil  fuel  subsidies  under  the  G20,  initiatives 
launched in the context of the Rio+20 process and efforts to reduce emissions of short lived 
climate pollutants, including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). 

Question 3: 

How  can  the  2015  Agreement  most  effectively  encourage  the  mainstreaming  of  climate 
change  in  all  relevant  policy  areas?  How  can  it  encourage  complementary  processes  and 
initiatives, including those carried out by non-state actors? 

4. 

DESIGNING THE 2015 AGREEMENT 

The negotiation round launched in Durban in 2011 reflects a fragile but crucial international 
consensus  about  the  nature  of  the  2015  Agreement.  If  it  is  to  deliver  more  than  Kyoto, 
Copenhagen  and  Cancun  have  yet  delivered,  the  2015  Agreement  must  be  inclusive,  by 
containing  commitments  that  are  "applicable  to  all"  countries,  developed  and  developing 
alike.  It  must  be  ambitious,  by  containing  commitments  that  are  consistent  with  limiting 
global  mean  temperature  rise  to  2°  C.  It  must  be  effective,  by  enabling  the  right  set  of 
incentives  for  implementation  and  compliance.  It  must  be  widely  perceived  as  fair  and 
equitable  in  the  way  in  which  it  shares  the  effort  to  reduce  GHG  emissions  and  the  cost  of 
adapting  to  unavoidable  climate  change.  Moreover,  the  2015  Agreement  must  be  legally 
binding. Only a legal form entailing a legally binding treaty will reflect the highest degree of 

EN 

5 

   EN 

 
political will required to drive the necessary level of ambition and the global transition to a 
low carbon economy; ensure that commitments are ratified and implemented in national law; 
secure  the  longer-term  attention  of  governments,  civil  society,  business  and  the  media;  and 
ensure the appropriate level of transparency and accountability for the commitments made. 

The  2015  Agreement  must  focus  on  encouraging  and  enabling  countries  to  take  new  and 
ambitious  mitigation  commitments.  At  the  same  time  it  must  learn  from  and  strengthen  the 
current  international  climate  regime.  Many  of  its  institutions,  tools  and  processes,  including 
the  Green  Climate  Fund,  the  Adaptation  Committee,  International  Assessment  and  Review 
and  Consultation  and  Analysis,  the  Technology  Executive  Committee,  Low  Emission 
Development Strategies and National Adaptation Plans, have only just started their operation, 
but could contribute significantly to the design of the 2015 Agreement. 
The  2015  Agreement  must  respond  to  scientific  advances,  including  the  5th  Assessment 
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the summary of which is 
due to be finalised in October 2014, a year before the adoption of the 2015 Agreement. It will 
also need to be sufficiently dynamic and flexible to adjust as scientific knowledge develops 
further, but also as unit costs of technologies, as well as national or regional socio-economic 
circumstances change. The recently agreed second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol 
sets  an  interesting  precedent  for  dynamic  regime  design  by  defining  a  review  process  that 
encourages ambition to be increased or ambition gaps to be narrowed during the commitment 
period.  At  the  same  time,  this  dynamism  will  have  to  be  balanced  by  the  expectation, 
especially from business, for predictability and certainty.  

•  Mitigation 

Science tells us that in order to have a likely chance to stay below 2° C, the growth of global 
GHG emissions will have to be reversed before 2020 and global emissions must decline every 
single year thereafter. Accordingly, the 2015 Agreement needs to meet the challenging goal of 
reducing  global  emissions  to  below  1990  levels  by  2030,  which  would  be  equivalent  to  a 
global reduction of around 25 % compared to 2010 emissions. 

While  the  Copenhagen-Cancun  pledges,  combined  with  Kyoto's  second  commitment  period 
have left a significant ambition gap, they have also generated a tremendous variety of national 
policies  and  measures,  including  carbon  markets  designed  to  reduce  emissions  in  specific 
sectors.  

In parallel to the 2015 negotiations, the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol will continue to 
improve transparency and accountability, defining common elements for reporting, improving 
existing  and  developing  new  market  mechanisms,  and  encouraging  new  international 
partnerships  around  different  sectors,  gasses  and  policies,  for  instance  agriculture  and 
forestry, shipping and aviation or GHGs other than CO2. 

Question 4: 

What  criteria  and  principles  should  guide  the  determination  of  an  equitable  distribution  of 
mitigation commitments of Parties to the 2015 Agreement along a spectrum of commitments 
that  reflect  national  circumstances,  are  widely  perceived  as  equitable  and  fair  and  that  are 
collectively  sufficient  avoiding  any  shortfall  in  ambition?  How  can  the  2015  Agreement 
capture particular opportunities with respect to specific sectors? 

•  Adaptation 

Adverse  effects  of  climate  change  will  increasingly  be  felt  and  adaptation  challenges  will 
further increase. The specific impacts of climate change will vary across countries depending 
on their geographical, cultural, social and economic situation and their resilience and capacity 

EN 

6 

   EN 

to  adapt.  Different  measures  will  be  required,  designed  locally  to  meet  local  situations  and 
integrated  in  the  normal  development  planning  process.  Domestic  and  regional  experiences 
with work on adaptation, including within the EU and its Member States, have underlined the 
need for the full mainstreaming of adaptation issues into a broad range of policy areas, such as 
regional  and  spatial  planning,  coastal  area  and  water  management,  agriculture  and  health. 
They  have  also  highlighted  the  need  for  full  coordination  with  disaster  risk  management 
policies and shown the benefits of ecosystem-based adaptation. 

To date, the adaptation framework under the Convention focussed on improving the resilience 
of  societies  through  closing  knowledge  gaps  (Nairobi  Work  Programme),  better  planning 
(National  Adaptation  Plans),  and  improved  access  to  funding  (Adaptation  Fund,  Green 
Climate Fund). In addition, the 2012 Doha Climate Change Conference further strengthened 
international cooperation on the issue of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects 
of climate change, including impacts related to extreme weather events and slow onset events. 
Important  complementary  work  also  takes  place  outside  the  Convention,  including  in  the 
context of the Hyogo Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction. 

Question 5:  

What  should  be  the  role  of  the  2015  Agreement  in  addressing  the  adaptation  challenge  and 
how should this build on ongoing work under the Convention? How can the 2015 Agreement 
further incentivise the mainstreaming of adaptation into all relevant policy areas? 

•  Means of implementation 

The  EU  should  promote  a  comprehensive  and  integrated  approach  to  the  means  of 
implementation  including  financing  issues  at  the  global  level.  At  present,  financing 
discussions  related  to  climate,  biodiversity,  development  and  sustainable  development  are 
taking place in different fora, even though the potential financing sources are the same. There 
is a strong need to ensure coherence and avoid a duplication of efforts with regard to the UN 
financing  for  development  process.  The  Commission  plans  to  present  a  proposal  for  an 
integrated EU approach to financing and other means of implementation related to the various 
global processes. 

Discussions on means of implementation will need to include the options for mobilising the 
necessary finance, both from domestic and international, public and private sources, as well as 
the  development  and  deployment  of  new  technologies  and  the  use  of  market-based 
mechanisms. 

Financing 

Discussions on the appropriate financing to enable and support poor countries to implement 
their mitigation commitments and address adaptation challenges will remain a central element 
in  the  elaboration  of  the  2015  Agreement.  Climate  considerations  both  for  mitigation  and 
adaptation  will  need  to  be  fully  integrated  into  all  public  and  private  investments  in  the 
coming decades. 

The  Green  Climate  Fund  is  in  the  process  of being  made  fully  operational.  In  Copenhagen, 
developed  countries  promised  to  mobilise  US$  100  billion  annually  for  climate  finance  by 
2020  from  a  wide  variety  of  sources  as  needed and  in  the  context  of  meaningful  mitigation 
action  and  transparency  on  implementation.  Looking  ahead  to  2030,  due  to  continued 
economic growth all major and emerging economies are expected to further strengthen their 
capabilities  to  act  against  climate  change  including  by  joining  forces  in  providing  support. 
Already  now  32  countries  that  are  considered  "developing  countries"  under  the  Convention 
have a higher per capita GDP than the EU Member State with the lowest per capita GDP. By 

EN 

7 

   EN 

2020 and beyond this number may have increased even further. The discussions on means of 
implementation under the 2015 Agreement will need to take this new reality into account, and 
move beyond a developed/developing country paradigm into one in which a broader range of 
countries will be expected to shoulder a share of the responsibility to provide the necessary 
means. 

The  2015  Agreement  will  also  need  to  build  upon  the  outcome  of  on-going  discussions  on 
mobilising private finance and innovative sources of financing. Putting an international price 
on carbon emissions from international aviation and maritime transport, could, in addition to 
achieving its primary goal of emission reductions, also help provide the necessary resources 
to support international climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. 

Technology 

At the same time, by 2020 climate policies will already have harvested many of the cheapest 
emission  reduction  options,  especially  energy  efficiency  improvements,  but  also  the  most 
competitive renewable energy options. Consequently, the focus will increasingly shift to new 
and more advanced technologies. Driving down the costs of these technologies and creating 
the  right  policy  framework  for  their  deployment  will  become  key.  Creating  an  international 
framework  that  can  help  incentivise  the  faster  dissemination  of  these  technologies 
internationally  is  a  key  task  for  the  Convention,  which  was  why  the  Climate  Technology 
Centre and Network was created. In the coming years this new institution will have to show 
its added value. 

Market-based mechanisms 

The  fight  against  climate  change  will  only  succeed  if  the  2015  Agreement  can  be 
implemented in a cost efficient way in the years after 2020. Therefore, there will need to be an 
increased focus on the use of market-based instruments. 

In the EU the focus will remain on giving market  incentives to reduce emissions, including 
through  emissions  trading.  The  Kyoto  Protocol  raised  the  profile  of  this  innovative  flexible 
tool  to  help  meet  emission  reduction  commitments.  Since  then,  the  EU  emissions  trading 
system  (EU  ETS)  has  been  developed,  covering  30  countries  and  giving  the  main  incentive 
for  the  rapid  development  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol’s  Clean  Development  Mechanism. 
Moreover,  the  use  of  carbon  pricing  and  market  based  mechanisms  domestically  is  gaining 
support and interest in a growing  number  of countries. This includes the start  of the  carbon 
pricing  mechanisms  in  Australia,  which  is  to  develop  into  a  fully-fledged  emissions  trading 
system by 2015, but also domestic developments in Korea and China, as well as a number of 
States in the US. In addition, countries are starting to explore options to bilaterally link their 
emissions trading systems, including between the EU and Australia. 

However, over the past years the flexibility mechanisms have been heavily criticised, and any 
further  development  or  improvement  (including  agreement  on  advanced  sectoral  market 
mechanisms) has proven difficult. Over the last five years the main developments of market 
based instruments  have  taken place  domestically  and outside  the Convention indicating that 
there seems to be a preference for bilateral and plurilateral solutions. 

EN 

8 

   EN 

Question 6: 

What should be the future role of the Convention and specifically the 2015 Agreement in the 
decade up to 2030 with respect to finance, market-based mechanisms and technology? How 
can existing experience be built upon and frameworks further improved? 

•  Transparency and accountability 

The previous round of negotiations focussed in particular on improving transparency through 
a  complete  overhaul  of  the  measurement,  reporting  and  verification  (MRV)  system.  This 
improved system should have completed its first full cycle in 2015. At the same time, much 
experience  on  accounting  has  been  gained  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  However,  the  current 
legal patchwork does not provide for a robust accounting framework for all. The next round 
of  negotiations  provides  a  unique  opportunity  to  create  such  framework  taking  into  account 
the  lessons  learned  from  the  Kyoto  system.  Improving  accounting  is  particularly  desirable 
given the continuing domestic debates about the comparability of domestic efforts with efforts 
in  other  countries  and  resulting  ambition  decisions.  Uncertainties  and  suspicion  on  the 
ambition levels of other countries continues to undermine trust and confidence. 

An  international  agreement  with  a  strong  legal  character  requires  a  robust  system  of 
compliance and  enforcement,  capable  of determining  whether  a  Party  has complied  with its 
commitments,  providing  facilitation  to  bring  a  Party  into  compliance,  and  holding  non-
compliant  Parties  accountable.  The  Kyoto  Protocol  enforcement  branch  may,  for  example 
suspend  from  international  emissions  trading  a  Party  that  has  failed  to  fulfil  its  reporting 
obligations.  While  the  Kyoto  compliance  system  has  had  mixed  results,  it  successes  have 
depended on tailoring compliance procedures and consequences to the specific nature of the 
commitments Parties undertake.  

Question 7:  

How could the 2015 Agreement further improve transparency and accountability of countries 
internationally? To what extent will an accounting system have to be standardised globally? 
How should countries be held accountable when they fail to meet their commitments? 

5. 

PREPARING THE PATH FOR THE 2015 AGREEMENT 

The  UN  negotiating  process  over  the  past  two  decades  has  become  more  complex  with 
increasingly  crowded  meeting  agendas  and  annual  highly  politicised  Conferences  of  the 
Parties (COPs). COPs that on the one hand fail to meet often unrealistic public expectations 
and  on  the  other  hand  do  not  respond  to  scientific  evidence  undermine  the  credibility  of 
international  institutions  and  erode  domestic  support  for  climate  action.  Their  open-ended 
participation and decision-making by consensus often results in only agreeing on the lowest 
common denominator. Moreover, the costs of this negotiating process are considerable.  

Opportunities for strengthening the effectiveness and efficiency of the UN negotiations need 
to be identified. This could include: 

• 

• 

developing rules of procedure to better facilitate reaching decisions than through the 
consensus rule applied under the Convention; 

revisiting the frequency of the annual COPs, where the Convention is one of the few 
that  provides  for  an  annual  conference.  In  doing  so,  it  will  be  important  to  find  a 

EN 

9 

   EN 

 
balance  between  the  continued  need  for  political  attention  for  climate  change  and 
avoiding the expectation of ground breaking new progress at every meeting; 

rather than working with a single annually rotating COP Presidency, options such as 
grouping  countries  into  joint  Presidencies  over  more  than  one  year  or  having  two-
year Presidencies; 

keeping the current frequency of formal meetings for technical work, the intensity of 
which is likely to increase in the coming years;  

streamlining  and  consolidation  of  the  large  number  of  specific  agenda  items,  more 
informal  exchanges  ahead  of  formal  technical  meetings  as  well  as  setting  clear 
priorities in order to contain the overall cost of meetings; 

opportunities to further strengthen the contributions of stakeholders, including expert 
views from business and non-governmental organisations; 

a strengthened role for the Convention Secretariat. 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

In addition to strengthening the UN process itself, ways could be explored to encourage and 
better  cooperate  with  issue  focussed  initiatives  that  are  seeking  to  move  forward  ambitious 
climate action. In view of the growing urgency of the climate issue, the more ambitious and 
effective processes are most likely to earn the support of governments and the public at large. 

Question 8:  

How  could  the  UN  climate  negotiating  process  be  improved  to  better  support  reaching  an 
inclusive, ambitious, effective and fair 2015 Agreement and ensuring its implementation? 

A  success  in  2015  will  only  be  possible  with  broad  based  support  from  a  critical  mass  of 
political  leaders,  including  from  the  world’s  major  economies.  The  run-up  to  Kyoto  and 
Copenhagen,  but  also  Cancun  and  Durban  have  shown  this  to  be  an  essential  ingredient  of 
success.  UN  Secretary  General  Ban  Ki-moon’s  announcement  at  the  Doha  Climate 
Conference that he will organise a world leaders climate summit in 2014 to support the 2015 
Agreement  sets  an  important  milestone  for  raising  the  political  momentum.  The  G20  or  the 
countries  involved  in  plurilateral  initiatives  like  the  Major  Economies  Forum  could  play  an 
active  role  in  the  lead-up  to  2015,  if  supported  by  a  stronger  leadership  on  climate  change 
from all major economies. In addition, the EU will continue to strengthen its cooperation with 
other countries, outside the G20, committed to ambitious action on climate change. Creating 
this political momentum is, however, only possible if there is broad based support from civil 
society, business and other political constituencies. This will require the active contributions 
and support from Parliamentarians, business, civil society, cities and regions and other non-
state actors, together with their colleagues in other countries. 

A  further  indispensable  element  to  enable  the  2015  Agreement  is  leadership  by  example. 
Demonstrating  in  practice  the  multiple  benefits,  including  economic  benefits,  from 
modernising  the  economy  with  technologies  that  reduce  GHG  emissions,  whether  in 
advanced,  emerging  or  developing  countries,  as  well  as  showing  that  decoupling  economic 
growth from GHG emissions is feasible, remain the best way of persuading all stakeholders 
that economic growth, reducing poverty, sustainable development and fighting climate change 
are mutually compatible and indeed reinforcing policy objectives. Over the past two decades, 
this  has  been  the  leadership  model  the  EU  has  pursued,  even  with  its  decreasing  share  of 
global  emissions,  at  now  less  than  11%.  The  EU  decoupled  its  GHG  emissions  from 
economic  growth:  EU  emissions  decreased  by  18%  since  1990,  while  the  overall  economy 
grew by 48%, and the value added of EU manufacturing industries increased substantially. 

EN 

10 

   EN 

Question 9:  

How can the EU best invest in and support processes and initiatives outside the Convention to 
pave the way for an ambitious and effective 2015 agreement? 

6. 

STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS 

The objective of this Consultative Communication is to start a broad discussion with Member 
States, EU institutions and stakeholders in the European Union and outside on the design of 
the 2015 Agreement on climate change for the period after 2020. Stakeholder views will be 
canvassed both by means of a dedicated stakeholder conference in spring 2013 and an online 
public consultation1. 

In addition, the Commission will work with Member States to organise outreach activities and 
public  debates  in  Member  States.  Furthermore,  to  solicit  the  views  of  non-EU  partners,  the 
Commission  will  present  and  discuss  the  Consultative  Communication  at  international 
meetings. 

1 

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/0016/index_en.htm. 

EN 

11 

   EN