COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate policy beyond 2020 Consultative Communication
Date: 2013-03-26
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change, developing countries, globalisation, international negotiations, reduction of gas emissions

EUROPEAN 
COMMISSION 

Brussels, 26.3.2013  
SWD(2013) 97 final 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
Accompanying the document 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS  

The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate 
policy beyond 2020 

Consultative Communication 

{COM(2013) 167 final} 

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   EN 

 
 
 
  
 
 
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
Accompanying the document 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS  

The 2015 International Climate Change Agreement: Shaping international climate 
policy beyond 2020 

Consultative Communication 

1. 

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 2020 - 2030 

The 2015 Agreement will come into effect and be implemented from 2020. It will operate in a 
context  that  will  be  different  from  those  in  which  the  1992  Convention,  the  1997  Kyoto 
Protocol and the most recent Copenhagen-Cancun framework were agreed: 

•  Scientific  advances  have  removed  any  reasonable  doubt  that  we  are  warming  the 
planet: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), fifth assessment report 
due at the end of 2014 is expected to provide further authoritative evidence that human-
induced climate change is happening. In 2001-2005, average global temperature increase 
had reached 0.76° Celsius compared to 1850-1889. By 2030, scientists expect this to have 
further increased to around 1.26° Celsius, even when current 2020 commitments are fully 
implemented.  People  and  the  planet  will  have  to  adapt  to  the  consequences  of  this 
significant  and  already  largely  inevitable  temperature  increase.  The  potential  costs  of 
inaction  could  amount  to  a  permanent  loss  in  average  per  capita  world  consumption  of 
more than 14 % in 20501. This will, for instance, also be increasingly reflected in regional 
conflicts  and  threats  to  security,  especially  in  areas  where  water  is  already  scarce  today 
and a major cause of conflicts. 

•  Emerging economies are an increasing source of economic growth and emissions. As 
we approach 2020, more emerging economies are estimated to have per capita GDP levels 
comparable  or  higher  than  those  in  some  EU  Member  States  while  emissions  per  capita 
will  also  continue  to  rise.  This  demonstrates  the  need  and  growing  capacity  for  all 
countries  to  participate  in  the  global  mitigation  effort  and  take  commitments  under  the 
2015  Agreement.  The  table  below  shows  for  instance  that  China’s  per  capita  CO2 
emissions in 2010 were almost on par with those of the EU, in total were more than those 
of the EU and the US combined, and are projected to increase by 30% by 2020 under a 
business as usual scenario. It also shows the EU experience that economic growth can be 
achieved while reducing emissions, which will be a prerequisite for effective action in all 
major economies. 

1 

OECD (2012). Environmental Outlook to 2050 – The consequences of inaction; and Stern N. (2006), 
The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern Review.  

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Table 1: The development of income and emissions per capita of the EU-27, US and China 
until 2020  

GDP/capita  

Emissions (incl. land use)/capita 

PPP (constant 2005 international $) 

tons CO2eq/capita 

1990 

2010 

2011 

1990 

2010 

EU-27 

20.5 

27.6 

28 

11.9 

8.6 

US 

China 

31.9 

1.1 

42.1 

6.8 

42.5 

7.4 

24.3 

3.5 

21.2 

7.9 

Sources: 

GDP per capita: World Bank Databank, World Development Indicators 

2011 

9.2 

21.6 

8.3 

2020 BAU 

10 

21 

9.9 

2020 
pledges 

8.8 (20% 
reduction) 

7.7 (30% 
reduction) 

17.7 

9.7 

Population: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 
Revision. 

Emissions/capita with 2020 projections: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; UNEP Gap report 2012 Annex I; European 
Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Emission Database for Global Atmospheric 
Research (EDGAR), release version 4.2 http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu, 2011 

A  more  elaborate  overview  of  the  development  in  GDP  and  emissions  for  G20  countries  is 
included in the Annexes to this paper. 

•  Significant sustainable development challenges remain: By 2030, the global population 
is set to increase by another billion to 8 billion. As an increasing share of this population 
joins the middle income classes, it is expected that by 2030 there will be a 50% increase in 
demand  for  food,  45  %  demand  increase  for  energy,  and  a  30%  demand  increase  for 
water.  This  increasing  demand  for  resources  occurs  against  the  background  of  slowing 
economic growth.2 Moreover, even though overall poverty rates fell from 46 per cent in 
1990 to 27 per cent in 2005, an estimated 920 million people would still be living under 
the  international  poverty  line  by  20153.  At  the  same  time,  around  20%  of  the  world's 
population  or  1.3  billion  people  remain  without  access  to  electricity4  and  agricultural 
productivity and production will need to continue to increase to feed the world's growing 
population.  This  underlines  the  urgent  need  for  "green  growth",  requiring  growth  to  be 
much more efficient and sustainable in its use of the world's resources. 

•  Addressing  climate  change  also  brings  significant  opportunities:  As  climate  change 
has  begun  to  be  mainstreamed  into  economic  policies  around  the  world,  investments  in 
innovative  low  and  zero  carbon  energy  technologies  are  paying  off  in  terms  of  greater 
emission  reductions and social and economic  benefits. Global annual  new  investment in 
renewable energy and energy efficiency increased from US$ 7 billion in 2002 to around 
US$ 120 billion in 2008 and reached around US$ 430 billion in 2011, despite the global 
recession5.  At  the  same  time,  fossil  fuel  subsidies  still  surpass  those  investments  in 
renewable energy and energy efficiency. In addition the shale gas boom in the US as well 
as  the  phase  out  of  nuclear  energy  in  some  countries  in  the  next  decade  is  considerably 
changing  the  global  energy  landscape.  Staying  below  2°C  compared  to  pre-industrial 
levels requires a massive shift to carbon free energy sources and increased overall energy 

2 

3 
4 
5 

United Nations Secretary-General's High-Level Panel of Global Sustainability (2012). Resilient People, 
Resilient Planet: A future worth choosing. Available through: http://www.un.org/gsp/. 
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/poverty.shtml. 
IEA (2011), World Energy Outlook 2011. 
UNEP/ NEF (2009), Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment; IEA (2012), Renewable Energy 
Medium-Term Market Report 2012, IEA (2012), World Energy Outlook 2012. 

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efficiency. These technologies typically have higher investment needs up front but lower 
operating and fuel costs during their lifetimes. Such acceleration of the modernisation of 
the  economies  around  the  world  often  makes  economic  sense.  Renewable  energy  for 
example  generates  more  jobs  per  unit  of  installed  capacity,  per  unit  of  power  generated 
and  per  dollar  invested  compared  to  fossil-fuel  power  plants.6  According  to  the  IEA, 
investing  in  energy  efficiency  would  require  US$  11.8  trillion  in  additional  investments 
globally  between  now  and  2035,  but  would  be  more  than  offset  by  a  US$17.5  trillion 
reduction in fuel expenditures and US$5.9 trillion lower energy supply-side investments. 
The EU 2050 low carbon economy roadmap estimated that, on average, investment needs 
to increase by € 270 billion annually in the next  40 years, but that this reduces the EU's 
average fuel costs by between € 175 billion  and € 320 billion per y ear depending on the 
future development of oil prices.7 These extra investments provide a major opportunity for 
jobs  creation  in  Europe.  By  2020,  the  net  employment  potential  from  developing  the 
renewable energy sector is estimated at 417,000 additional jobs.8 Moreover implementing 
the full range of measures needed to raise energy efficiency by 20% could create 400,000 
additional jobs.9 

•  Increasing  global  trade  will  continue  to  raise  issues  about  production-related 
emissions,  and  preventing  carbon  leakage  (carbon  intensive  activities  shifting  from 
high  ambition  to  low  ambition  countries):  Between  1995  and  2008,  the  world  trade 
volume tripled. It now represents 30% of global GDP and employs a fifth of the world’s 
working population. Trade barriers were coming down, allowing more and more countries 
to fully benefit from their comparative economic advantage, especially low labour costs. 
At the same time GHG emissions embedded in these global trade activities have doubled 
between  1995  and  2008,  and  are  now  around  9.6  GtCO2e,  but  also  pointing  at  a 
decoupling between world trade volume and embedded greenhouse gas emissions. In an 
increasingly global economy, carbon pricing or regulatory action by some, combined with 
inaction  by  others,  may  in  the  next  decade  give  rise  to  the  risk  of  carbon  leakage. 
Increasing  global  trade  and  the  increasingly  global  economy  reinforce  the  need  for  a 
global framework to address climate change. 

2. 

SOURCE MATERIAL 

In  addition  to  the  references  in  this  Staff  Working  Document,  references  to  data  in  the 
Consultative  Communication  were  drawn  from  the  following  source  material  (in  the  order 
used in the text): 

– 

– 

– 

6 
7 

8 
9 

IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007 - Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of 
Working  Group  III  to  the  Fourth  Assessment  Report.  Geneva.  (especially  chapter 
3.3.5 on long-term stabilisation scenarios)  

UNEP  (2012),  The  Emissions  Gap  Report  2012,  United  Nations  Environment 
Programme (UNEP); 

World Bank (2012), Turn down the heat: why a 4ºC warmer world must be avoided; 

UNEP (2008), Green Jobs: Towards decent work in a sustainable low-carbon world, p.6. 
The Commission analysis is based on real oil prices starting at 2005US$ 70 in 2010 and ending in 2050 
with prices between 2005US$ 69 in the global climate action scenario and 2005US$ 138 under business 
as  usual,  see  Commission  Communication,  A  Roadmap  for  moving  to  a  competitive  low  carbon 
economy in 2050, Brussels, 8 March 2011, COM(2011)112 final. 
Ecofys (2009), EmployRES final report. 
Impact Assessment accompanying the Energy Efficiency Directive. 2011. 

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– 

– 

– 

3. 

2°C 

ADP 

BAU 

Peters, G. et. al. (2013), “The challenge to keep global warming below 2 ºC”, Nature 
Climate Change, Vol. 3, January; 

Rogelj,  J.  et  al.  (2012),  “Global  warming  under  old  and  new  scenarios  using  IPCC 
climate sensitivity range estimates”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, April; 

European Commission (2013), Communication: A decent life for all: ending poverty 
and giving the world a sustainable future, Brussels, 27 February 2013, COM(2013) 
92 final. 

ACRONYMS 

2 degrees Celsius 

Durban Platform for Enhanced Action 

Business As Usual 

CDM   

Clean Development Mechanism 

CO2 

COP 

Carbon Dioxide 

 Conference  of  the  Parties  to  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on 
Climate Change 

EU 

European Union 

EU-27  

European Union with its 27 Member States 

EU ETS 

European Union greenhouse gas Emissions Trading System 

G20 

GDP 

GHG 

GtCO2e 

HFCs   

IAR 

ICA 

IPCC 

JI 

MDG   

MRV   

MtCO2e 

NAMA 

OECD  

PPP 

REDD+ 

Economic forum consisting of the world’s largest economies 

Gross Domestic Product 

Greenhouse Gas 
Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (109) 

Hydrofluorocarbons 

International Assessment and Review 

International Consultation and Assessment 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Joint Implementation 

Millennium Development Goals 

Measurement, Reporting and Verification 
Megatonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (106) 

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action 

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 

Purchasing Power Parity 

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, as well as the 
conservation  and  sustainable  management  of  forests  and  the  enhancement  of 
forest carbon stocks 

QELRC 

Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Commitment 

EN 

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Rio+20 

2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development 

UN 

United Nations 

UNEP   

United Nations Environment Programme 

UNFCCC 

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 

US 

United States of America 

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Annex: Background Information 

Table 1: Overview of the UN legal framework 2013-2020 

Table 2: G20 GDP in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2011 

Table 3: G20 GDP per capita in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2011 

Table 4: G20 greenhouse gas emissions levels and share of aggregate global levels in 1990, 
2005, 2010 and projected for 2020 

Table  5:  G20  per  capita  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  1990,  2000,  2010  and  2011  (without 
land-use emissions as not available for 2011) 

Table 6: Summary of G20 pledges and effects on emissions levels 

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Table 1: Overview of the UN legal framework 2013-2020 

Commitments 
Kyoto Protocol 

Commitments under 
Copenhagen-Cancun 

Countries included in Annex I 
(developed countries) 

Countries not included in Annex I 
(developing countries) 

With Kyoto 2nd 
commitment 
period target 

With pledge 
under 
Convention10 

With pledge 

Without pledge 

Participation 
(mitigation) 

EU, NO, CH, IS, 
LI, MC, HR, AU 

US, RU, JP, CA, 
NZ, KZ, UA, BY 

52 (eg CN, BR, 
ZA, IN, KR, 
MX) 

101 

% global 
Emissions 

~ 13 % 

~ 24 % 

~ 46 % 

~ 17 %7 

Mitigation 
commitment 

Emission budget 
(QELRC) 

Economy-wide 
target 

Actions 
(NAMAs) 

No pledges 

Inventory 

IPCC, annual inventories and biennial 
reports (Jan 2012) 

IPCC, biennial (Dec 2014) 

Reporting 

Annex I National Communications 
(every 4 years, Jan 2014) 

Non-Annex I National 
Communications (every 4 years, 
Dec 2014) 

Verification 

Expert review 

IAR (2014) 

ICA (2015) 

Accounting 

Kyoto rules 

Compliance 

Fully elaborated 

Improved 
accounting 

International 
emissions 
trading, CDM, JI, 
New Market 
Mechanism 

LULUCF 

Carbon markets 

Adaptation 

Technology 

Finance 

Adaptation Fund, 
Share of Proceeds 

Response 
measures 

Specific reporting 
requirements 

- 

- 

- 

New Market 
Mechanism 

- 

- 

- 

REDD+ 

- 

- 

- 

- 

Adaptation Committee 

Technology Executive Committee, Center of Network of 
Climate Technology 

Green Climate Fund, Standing Committee 

Forum 

10 

Turkey is the only country included in Annex I to the Convention and the only OECD country that has 
not put forward a mitigation pledge. It's emissions are included in those of countries without a pledge in 
the 4th column. 

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Table 2: G20 GDP in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2011 

EU27 and non-EU members of the G20 provide over 80% of total GDP (84% in 1990 to 82% 
in 2011). 

GDP (2005 PPP US$) (trillion) 

1990 

2000 

2010 

2011 

% 

2011 

Change/yr 
1990-2011 

World total 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

36,0 

9,7 

48,1 

12,0 

67,6 

13,9 

8,0 

1,2 

1,1 

3,3 

1,9 

1,1 

0,5 

0,8 

0,7 

0,4 

0,4 

0,4 

0,2 

0,3 

0,3 

11,2 

13,0 

3,4 

1,8 

3,7 

1,3 

1,4 

0,9 

1,2 

1,0 

0,6 

0,6 

0,6 

0,4 

0,4 

0,3 

9,1 

3,7 

3,9 

2,0 

2,0 

1,3 

1,4 

1,2 

0,9 

0,9 

0,8 

0,6 

0,6 

0,5 

70,1 

14,1 

13,2 

10,0 

4,0 

3,9 

2,1 

2,0 

1,4 

1,5 

1,2 

1,0 

1,0 

0,8 

0,6 

0,6 

0,5 

100% 

20% 

19% 

14% 

6% 

6% 

3% 

3% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

3,2% 

1,8% 

2,5% 

10,4% 

6,5% 

0,9% 

0,6% 

3,1% 

5,0% 

2,7% 

2,4% 

4,8% 

4,0% 

3,2% 

4,6% 

3,2% 

2,7% 

Source:  World  Bank,  http://data.worldbank.org/  GDP  (constant  2005  international  $,  PPP)  (trillion) 
World Development Indicators 

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Table 3: G20 GDP per capita in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2011 

Russia, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are rapidly catching up with, or surpassing the world 
average  in  2010-2011,  like  all  other  G20  members,  with  the  exception  of  China,  India  and 
Indonesia. 

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $) (thousands) 

1990

2000 

2005 

2010 

2011

World average 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

6,8

7,9 

8,8 

9,8 

10,1

20,5

24,7 

26,8 

27,6 

28,0

31,9

39,5 

42,5 

42,1 

42,5

1,1

1,2

26,5

12,6

7,2

11,4

10,0

26,9

2,0

8,1

2,7 

1,7 

4,1 

2,2 

6,8 

3,0 

7,4

3,2

28,9 

30,4 

31,0 

30,7

8,6 

7,9 

11,9 

14,2 

14,8

8,5 

10,1 

10,3

18,7 

22,8 

26,8 

27,5

11,9 

12,2 

12,4 

12,8

32,4 

35,0 

35,2 

35,7

2,6 

9,8 

3,1 

3,9 

4,1

11,5 

12,6 

13,5

23,8

29,7 

32,7 

34,4 

34,5

7,5

10,3 

10,8 

14,4 

15,5

19,3

20,3 

20,4 

20,5 

21,4

8,0

7,6 

8,6 

9,5 

9,7

Source:  World  Bank,  http://data.worldbank.org/  -  GDP  per  capita,  PPP  (constant  2005  international  $) 
(thousands) Worldbank Databank, World Development Indicators 

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Table  4:  G20  greenhouse  gas  emissions  levels  and  share  of  aggregate  global  levels  in 
1990, 2005, 2010 and projected for 2020 

G20  countries  and  the  EU27  were  responsible  for  almost  75%  of  global  GHG  emissions  in 
2010, an increase from 70% in 1990. Global and G20 emissions are growing faster over the 
period 2000-2010 compared to 1990-2000 (scientific estimates indicate total global emissions 
grew  from  36  GtCO2e  in  1990  to  at  least  49  GtCO2e  in  2010,  and  G20  emissions  from  27 
GtCO2e  in  1990,  to  29  GtCO2e  in  2000,  to  33  GtCO2e  in  2005  and  36.6  GtCO2e  in  2010). 
Under a “no policies” scenario, emissions would further sharply grow (to 59 GtCO2e in 2020, 
with 45 GtCO2e in G20 countries); whereas pledges could take emissions down to 52 to 54 
GtCO2e (under strict accounting rules), with 39 to 40 GtCO2e emissions in 2020 in G20. 

GHG (incl. land use, excl. bunkers)  

1990 

2000 

2005 

2010 

2010 

BAU2020 

2020 under pledges 

% 2020 total 

World 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

MtCO2e 

% 

MtCO2e  Uncond.  Condit. 

BAU  Uncond. 
pledge 

Cond. 
pledge 

36.547 

40.200 

44.656 

48.855 

100% 

58.718 

54.408 

51.764 

100% 

100% 

100% 

5.589  

5246 

5.149 

4.620 

10% 

5.589 

4.471 

3.912  

9% 

8% 

8% 

6.164  

6983 

7.179 

6.659 

14% 

7.105 

 5.964  

12% 

11% 

12% 

3.944  

5073 

7.466 

9.924 

20% 

13.795 

13.447  

23% 

25% 

26% 

1.373  

1873 

2.001 

2.756 

1.267  

1412 

1.352 

1.258 

3.399  

2647 

2.128 

2.213 

1.712  

1463 

2.192 

2.537 

298  

472  

591  

512 

569 

728 

538 

728 

752 

587 

691 

775 

845  

1445 

1.833 

2.230 

235 

605 

223 

494  

267 

204 

384  

395 

271 

534 

299 

310 

488 

392 

576 

341 

499 

568 

6% 

3% 

5% 

5% 

1% 

1% 

2% 

5% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

3.857 

1.330 

3.760  

955  

2.500 

2.861 

2.565  

3.126 

1900 to 2.020  

745 

882 

832 

569  

617  

636  

2.533 

1.816 

1.548  

613 

538  

425  

n.a. 

n.a. 

493  

632 

391 

793 

715 

7% 

2% 

4% 

5% 

1% 

2% 

1% 

4% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

7% 

2% 

5% 

4% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

3% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

7% 

2% 

5% 

4% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

3% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

2% 

1% 

G20 aggregate 

 27.225  

 29.186  

 33.219 

 36.624 

75% 

45.439 

39.944 

38.708 

77% 

73% 

75% 

G20 share of total 

74% 

73% 

74% 

75% 

77% 

73% 

75% 

Source:  UNEP  emission  gap  report  2012  –  Annex  I  Unharmonised  emission  levels  /  Updated  pledges  and 
policies  analysis  2012  PBL  Netherlands  Environmental  Agency  and  Ecofys  /  European  Commission  Joint 
Research Center, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu. 

Estimates across all years in this table are not fully harmonised to 2005 levels as inventories for measurement 
and reporting are not yet available for all countries and all sources. Nonetheless, the estimate of the effect of the 
pledges is consistently undertaken across countries. From its analysis of the ambition gap, UNEP estimated to 
50.1 GtCO2e the aggregated level of global emissions in 2010, taking into account an uncertainty of -0.3 GtCO2e 
to  +1  GtCO2e  around  estimates  across  studies  before  harmonisation;  associated  with  uncertainties  around 
countries  specific  estimates  (notably  for  countries  with  a  significant  amount  or  share  of  land-use  and  forestry 
related emissions). 

Estimates  of  2020  BAU  levels  for  Brazil,  South  Korea,  Indonesia  and  South  Africa  in  national  baseline 
projections  have  some  differences  with  these  international  estimates,  mostly  due  to  uncertainties  on  land-use 
emissions  and  economic  growth  projections.  Estimates  of  2020  levels  under  BAU  and  under  pledges  are  also 
uncertain, as some countries still have to clarify the assumptions and methodological elements attached to their 
pledges (variation over +/- 0.5 GtCO2e around median estimates, cf. UNEP emission gap report 2012). 

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Table 5: G20 per capita CO2 emissions in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2011 (tCO2/cap) 

Per capita emissions in China and South Africa are at levels comparable to those in the EU. 
Emissions  of  Japan,  Russia,  South  Korea,  US,  Canada,  Australia,  Saudi  Arabia  are  at  10 
tonnes of CO2 per capita or above, which is twice the world average 

tCO2/cap 

World average 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

1990

3,27

9,2

19,7

2,2

0,8

9,5

16,5

1,5

5,9

3,7

16,2

0,9

2,75

16

3,27

10,2

7,3

2000

4,03

8,4

20,8

2,8

1

10,1

11,3

2

9,7

3,8

17,9

1,4

3,55

18,6

4,03

13

6,9

2010 

4,8 

7,8 

17,8 

6,6 

1,5 

10 

12,4 

2,2 

12,2 

3,9 

16 

2 

3,64 

17,9 

4,73 

15,8 

7,1 

2011

4,9

7,5

17,3

7,2

1,6

9,8

12,8

2,3

12,6

3,9

16,2

2

3,79

19

4,79

16,5

7,2

Source:  European  Commission  Joint  Research  Center,  Emissions  Database  for  Global  Atmospheric  Research 
(EDGAR), http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu 

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Table 6: Summary of G20 pledges and effects on emissions levels 

Summary of 2020 pledges, their attached conditions and assumptions 

Reduce emissions by 20% below 1990 level by 2020, through legally binding 
Climate  and  Energy  Package  (excl.  land-use  and  forestry  emissions/removals, 
with strict rules on use of mechanisms). 

Reduce  emissions  by  30%  below  1990  level  by  2020  as  part  of  a  global 
comprehensive agreement for the period beyond 2012, provided that all Parties 
contribute  their  fair  share  to  a  cost-effective  global  emission  reduction 
pathway,  where  other  developed  countries  commit  themselves  to  comparable 
emission reductions and developing countries contribute adequately according 
to their responsibilities and, respective capabilities 

Reduce  emissions  in  the  range  of  17%  below  2005  level  by  2020,  as  in 
legislation  to  be  enacted,  with  net-net  accounting  of  emissions/removals  in 
land-use and forestry sector with 2005 base year, and under the assumption of 
other  Annex  I  parties  and  more  advanced  non-Annex  I  Parties  submit 
mitigation actions. 

Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared with the 
2005  level;  increase  the  share  of  non-fossil  fuels  in  primary  energy 
consumption  to  around  15%  by  2020;  and  increase  forest  coverage  by  40 
million  ha  and  forest  stock  volume  by  1.3  billion  m3  by  2020  compared  with 
the 2005 levels. 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% by 2020 compared with the 
2005 level (excl. emissions from the agriculture sector) 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South 
Korea 

Mexico 

Reduce  emissions  by  25%  below  1990  levels,  incl.  forest  management  effects 
(possible contributions to target: -2.9% removals to +1.5% emissions), if under 
a  fair  and  effective  international  framework  with  participation  and  ambition 
targets for all major economies 

Reduce  emissions  by  15-25%  below  1990  levels,  if  appropriate  accounting  of 
the  emission  reductions  contributions  of  the  forestry  sector;  and  if  all  major 
emitters with legally binding obligations to reduce emissions 

Implement mitigation actions expected to reduce emissions between 36.1% and 
38.9%  below  projected  emissions  in  2020  (reduction  in  deforestation  and 
agriculture  emissions  esp.  with  a  plan  to  reduce  the  deforestation  rate  in  the 
Amazon  region  by  80%  between  2005  and  2020,  energy  efficiency,  increase 
use of biofuels and of energy sources alternative to fossil fuels) 

Reduce national GHG emissions by 30% from the ‘business as usual’ emissions 
in 2020 

Reduce GHG emissions by up to 30% compared to BAU by 2020, if means of 
implementation  provided,  with  sector-based  actions  in  the  Special  Climate 
Change Programme cutting yearly BAU emissions by 51 Mt CO2e by 2012. 

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Canada 

Indonesia 

Reduce  emissions  by  17%  below  2005  levels  (excl.  forestry  emission  changes 
from  natural  disturbances  and  accounting  for  harvested  wood  products 
emissions),  without  significant  use  of  mechanisms,  aligned  with  the  US 
mitigation target as in enacted legislation, and with the expectation that other 
Annex  I  Parties  and  major  non-Annex  I  Parties  would  submit  information  on 
their emission targets 

Actions reducing GHG emissions by 26% by 2020 (reduction in deforestation, 
land degradation, agriculture, transport and waste emissions, energy efficiency, 
increase of energy sources alternative to fossil fuels) 

Previously,  indicated  actions  reducing  GHG  emissions  by  41%  by  2020, 
depending on support. 

Turkey 

No pledge 

Reduce  by  5%  below  2000  level  by  2020  net  emissions  from  all  sectors  and 
sources  listed  in  Annex  A  of  Kyoto  protocol  and  from  afforestation, 
reforestation and deforestation activities. 

Australia 

Reduce emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 with access to deeper and 
broader  carbon  markets,  and  if  progress  to  include  land-use  and  forestry 
emissions  

Reduce emissions by 25% below 2000 levels by 2020 under global action incl. 
from major developing economies, and incl. land-use and forestry emissions 

Argentina 

Developing  sector-specific  actions:  Energy  efficiency  programme,  Renewable 
energy law, National programme on biofuels, Forest management Law, Plan for 
management of urban solid waste, in the context of commitments by developed 
countries (targets, means of implementation) 

No  pledge  yet;  readiness  to  put  forward  current  economic  diversification 
actions and plans with emission reduction co-benefits 

Enable a 34% deviation below BAU emissions growth trajectory by 2020 (and 
a  42%  deviation  below  BAU  trajectory  by  2025),  with  and  to  the  extent  of 
means  of  implementation  provided,  and  if  under  a  fair  and  effective 
international framework. A level of effort indicated as enabling South Africa's 
emissions  to  peak  between  2020  and  2025,  plateau  for  around  a  decade  and 
decline in absolute terms thereafter. 

Saudi 
Arabia 

South 
Africa 

Sources: 

-  Quantified  economy-wide  emission  reduction  targets  by  developed  country  Parties  to  the  Convention: 
assumptions, conditions, commonalities and differences in approaches and comparison of the level of emission 
reduction efforts, UNFCCC Technical paper FCCC/TP/2012/5 

-  Compilation  of  information  on  nationally  appropriate  mitigation  actions  to  be  implemented  by  Parties  not 
included in Annex I to the Convention Note by the UNFCCC secretariat, FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1 

- Draft decision -/CP.18 on economic diversification initiative, UNFCCC, 2012 

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Estimates of the effects of the pledges on deviation from projected 2020 levels and per 
capita emission levels 

BAU2020 

2020 under pledges 

Deviation  from  a  base  year 
emission levels 

Eq. emission reductions from 2020 BAU  
(sensitive to the choice of BAU) 

EU-27 

US 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

GHG/cap  
(incl. land use, excl. bunkers) 
EU27 

USA 

China 

India 

Japan 

Russia 

Brazil 

South Korea 

Mexico 

Canada 

Indonesia 

Turkey 

Australia 

Argentina 

Saudi Arabia 

South Africa 

MtCO2e 

Uncond. 

Condit. 

Base 

5.589  

4.471 

3.912 

1990 

7.105  

13.795  

 5.964 

2005 

13.447  

2020 

3.857  

3.760  

2020 

1.330  

955 

1990 

2.500  

2.861 

2.565 

3.126  

1900 to 2.020  

745  

882  

832  

569 

617 

636 

2.533  

1.816 

1.548 

1990 

2020 

2020 

2020 

2005 

2020 

Uncond. 
pledge 
-20% 

Cond. 
pledge 
-30% 

-17% 

Deviation in emission 
intensity 
Estimated to -3% 
(sensitive to GDP) 
Deviation in emission 
intensity 
Estimates to -2% 
(sensitive to GDP) 
-25% 

-15% 

-25% 

-36% 

-39% 

Uncond. pledge 

Cond. pledge 

1.118  

1.677 

1141 

348 
(very uncertain, sensitive to GDP, BAU) 

96 
(very uncertain, sensitive to GDP, BAU) 

375 

Would allow for surplus: 64 to 364 
above BAU 
1.219 

1.106  

-30% 

-30% 

-17% 

-26% 

538 

632  

391 

793 

715  

613 

425  

n.a. 

n.a. 

493 

2000 

-5% 

No pledge 
-15%  
-25% 

No quantified pledge 

2020 

No pledge 

-34% 

1990 

2005 

2010 

2020 BAU 

11,9 

24,3 

3,5 

1,6 

10,3 

22,9 

11,4 

7,0 

5,7 

21,3 

4,7 

4,1 

28,9 

8,2 

12,6 

10,9 

10,5 

24,0 

5,7 

1,8 

10,6 

14,9 

11,8 

11,2 

7,1 

23,3 

8,3 

4,0 

26,2 

7,7 

 12,9 

10,4 

9,2 

21,5 

7,4 

2,3 

9,9 

15,5 

13,0 

12,2 

6,1 

22,8 

9,3 

5,4 

25,9 

8,4 

18,2 

11,3 

10,9 

21,1 

9,9 

2,8 

10,7 

17,7 

14,9 

15,0 

7,0 

22,4 

9,6 

7,6 

25,0 

8,9 

23,7 

13,6 

718  

 94  

2020 under  
Uncondit. pledges 
8,8  

20,3  

9,6  

21,3  

176 

265 

196 

985 

n.a. 

 207 

n.a. 

n.a. 

222 

2020 under  
Condit pledges 

7,7 

17,7 

9,7 

2,7 

7,7 

18,2 

9,1 

11,4 

4,9 

17,1 

6,9 

n.a. 

16,8 

n.a. 

n.a. 

9,4 

Source: Emissions – UNEP emission gap report 2012 Section 2.5; Population - United Nations, Department 
of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. 

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