REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Possible Migratory and Security Impacts of Future Visa Liberalisation for the Republic of Moldova on the European Union Preliminary Assessment
Date: 2012-08-03
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU visa policy, Moldova, Romania, agreement (EU), area of freedom, security and justice, external border of the EU, illicit trade, migratory movement, return migration, trafficking in human beings

EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 3.8.2012  
COM(2012) 443 final 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND 
THE COUNCIL 

Possible Migratory and Security Impacts of Future Visa Liberalisation  
for the Republic of Moldova on the European Union 

Preliminary Assessment 

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REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND 
THE COUNCIL 

Possible Migratory and Security Impacts of Future Visa Liberalisation  
for the Republic of Moldova on the European Union 

Preliminary Assessment 

1 - INTRODUCTION 

1.1. Background 

The Action Plan on Visa Liberalisation (VLAP) was presented to the Moldovan authorities by 
the  Commission  on  24  January  2011.  The  Commission  reported  regularly  to  the  European 
Parliament and to the Council on the implementation of the VLAP. The First Progress Report 
was  presented  on  16  September  20111.  The  Second  Progress  Report  was  presented  on  9 
February  20122.  The  Commission  adopted  a  Report  to  the  European  Parliament  and  the 
Council  on  the  Implementation  by  the  Republic  of  Moldova  of  the  Action  Plan  on  Visa 
Liberalisation on 22 June 20123.  

According  to  the  VLAP  methodology,  the  Commission  was  also  requested  to  provide  "a 
wider assessment of possible migratory and security impacts of future visa liberalisation for 
Moldovan citizens travelling to the EU". 

1.2. Methodology  

To  prepare  this  assessment,  the  Commission  involved  the  relevant  EU  Agencies  and 
stakeholders whose contributions were considered necessary, namely Europol, the EU Border 
Assistance  Mission  to  the  Republic  of  Moldova  and  Ukraine  (EUBAM),  Frontex  and  the 
European  University  Institute  -  Migration  Policy  Centre  (EUI).  On  12  October  2011  the 
Commission  held  a  meeting  with  their  participation.  In  January  2012  Europol4,  EUBAM5, 
Frontex6 as well as EUI7 delivered their assessment of the possible migratory and/or security 
impacts of future visa liberalisation.  

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3 
4 

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See SEC (2011) 1075 final. 
See SWD (2012) 12 final. 
See COM (2012) 348 final. 
The findings presented in Europol contribution are based on information available to the Agency. The 
contribution does not represent an exhaustive threat assessment on Moldovan organised crime.  
EUBAM's  contribution  focused  on  the  analysis  of  the  situation  at  the  common  border  between  the 
Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.  
Frontex  tailored  risk  analysis  is  based  on  the  Common  Integrated  Risk  Analysis  Model.  Data  were 
collected  through  the  Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Network  (FRAN)  and  the  Frontex  Eastern  Borders  Risk 
Analysis  Network  (EBRAN).  In  addition,  Frontex  own  reports  and  data  collected  during  Frontex 
coordinated joint operations, publically available statistical data and open source intelligence were used.  
The EUI conclusions are based on primary and secondary qualitative data: the Delphi survey of experts 
conducted  in  December  2011;  qualitative  interviews  with  Moldovan  migrants  in  Germany,  Italy  and 
Poland as well as interviews with potential migrants in the Republic of Moldova; and a review of the 
legal framework.  

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A  contribution  was  also  requested  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  at  the  Senior  Officials 
Meeting on 7 October 2011. The contribution from the Republic of Moldova was received in 
January  2012.  The  issue  was  subsequently  discussed  at  the  Senior  Officials  Meeting  on  27 
February 2012, after which updated information was received. A follow-up meeting with the 
relevant  EU  Agencies  and  stakeholders  was  organised  on  23  April  2012,  and  additional 
comments  and  information  were  received  in  May  and  June  2012  on  the  basis  of  which  the 
assessment was finalised. 

In this context it is important to emphasise that the contributions received did not necessarily 
point in the same direction, and that, according to the current information and following past 
experiences, the possible impact of visa liberalisation for the Republic of Moldova will not be 
the same for every EU Member State.  

Based  on  the  contributions  received,  the  present  assessment  aims  to  identify  the  main 
phenomena and key trends in the areas of migration, mobility and security in relation to 
the Republic of Moldova and the possible impact that a visa-free regime would have on them. 
It also identifies measures that should be considered by the Republic of Moldova as well as, 
where relevant, by the European Union and its Member States.  

This  assessment  reflects  the  state  of  play  as  of  June  2012.  The  findings  presented  in  the 
current document would need to be updated following the legislative, policy and institutional 
reforms to be implemented by the Republic of Moldova in line with the VLAP. The present 
assessment therefore represents a preliminary snapshot of the situation at the current state of 
implementation  of  the  VLAP.  It  is  supposed  to  change,  and  potentially  to  improve 
substantially,  following  the  effective  implementation  of  the  VLAP.  The  Commission  will 
continue to monitor the progressive implementation of the VLAP, and present its findings in 
the context of its regular reports to the European Parliament and the Council.  

2 - RELEVANT LEGAL REGIMES CURRENTLY IN PLACE 

2.1. Background 

The aim of the visa dialogue between the EU and the Republic of Moldova is to prepare the 
ground for a waiver of the visa obligation for short stays for Moldovan nationals travelling to 
the  Schengen  area.  Such  visa  waiver  will  be  regulated  in  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No 
539/2001  establishing  the  lists  of  third  countries  whose  nationals  must  be  in  possession  of 
visas when crossing the external borders and of those whose nationals are exempt from that 
requirement. In this context, it is relevant to recall that the Commission submitted on 24 May 
2011  a  proposal  for  a  Regulation  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  amending 
Council Regulation (EC) No 539/20018. This proposal, which is currently being discussed in 
the  European  Parliament  and  in  the  Council,  aims  to  establish  a  mechanism  for  the 
temporary  suspension  of  the  visa  waiver  for  a  third  country  listed  in  Annex  II  to  Council 
Regulation (EC) No 539/2001 in case of an emergency situation, where an urgent response is 
needed  in  order  to  resolve  the  difficulties  faced  by  one  or  more  Member  States,  and  taking 
account of the overall impact of the emergency situation on the European Union as a whole.  

8 

See COM (2011) 290 final.  

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Visa  liberalisation  does  not  change  the  conditions  for  entry  and  stay  laid  down  in  the 
Schengen  Borders  Code9  for  short  stays  and  in  national  law  for  long  stays.  Visa 
liberalisation  does  not  mean  an  automatic  right  of  entry  and  stay  for  Moldovan  citizens. 
Neither does it mean an absence of controls of the conditions for entry and stay. In particular, 
even after the introduction of a short-term visa-free regime, Moldovan citizens, when crossing 
the  external  borders  of  the  Member  States,  would  have  to  justify,  inter  alia,  by  providing 
documentary evidence, the purpose and conditions of their journey as well as their intention to 
leave  the  territory  of  a  Member  State  before  the  maximum  duration  of  authorised  stay  (90 
days  in  any  180-day-period)  has  elapsed.  Nevertheless,  visa  liberalisation  will  reduce  the 
preparation time and costs associated with travelling to the Schengen area. 

The  VLAP  indicates  that  the  visa  waiver  would  apply  only  to  Moldovan  nationals  holding 
biometric  passports,  therefore  risks  related  to  a  visa  waiver  for  non-biometric  passport 
holders are not analysed. 

2.2. Visa regime applied by the EU in relation to the Republic of Moldova  

Currently,  Moldovan  citizens  are  subject  to  a  visa  obligation,  with  the  exception  of  certain 
limited  categories  of  persons,  who  are  exempted  from  that  obligation  under  the  Visa 
Facilitation  Agreement  or  under  national  law  (like  diplomatic  and  service  passport  holders 
and  civilian  aircrew  members).  The  issuance  of  short-stay  visas  is  governed  by  the  Visa 
Facilitation Agreement and the Visa Code.  

The  EU-Republic  of  Moldova  Visa  Facilitation  Agreement  entered  into  force  on  1  January 
2008. The Joint Committee monitoring the implementation of the Visa Facilitation Agreement 
regularly  addressed  the  issue  of  fraud  in  supporting  documents.  The  Republic  of  Moldova 
reported  that  it  designated  contact  points  within  its  administration  to  allow  Member  States' 
consulates  to  quickly  verify  the  authenticity  of  certain  categories  of  supporting  documents. 
During  the  most  recent  meeting  of  the  Joint  Visa  Facilitation  Committee  in  Chisinau  on  23 
May 2012, with the participation of EU Member States, the Commission registered an overall 
satisfactory implementation of the Agreement.  

As regards the number of short-stay visas issued by the Schengen States in the Republic of 
Moldova: in 2008, 28.911 short-stay visas were issued, in 2009 33.820, in 2010 45.612 and in 
2011 49.296. In 2008 12,1% of the short-stay visa applications were refused, in 2009 10,15%, 
in  2010  11,43%,  and  in  2011  9,7%.  These  rates  are  higher  than  the  global  average  refusal 
rates which were 6,68% (in 2009), 5,79% (in 2010) and 5,5% (in 2011). 

As  regards  the  number  of  national  short-stay  visas  issued  by  Bulgaria,  Romania  and 
Cyprus in the Republic of Moldova: in 2009 31.657 national short-stay visas were issued by 
Bulgaria,  65.042  by  Romania  and  900  by  Cyprus;  in  2010  40.898  by  Bulgaria,  92.556  by 
Romania and 539 by Cyprus; in 2011 52.209 by Bulgaria and 50.836 by Romania. No figures 
are available for Cyprus for 2011. In 2009, the visa refusal rate was 7,49% (Bulgaria), 4,45% 
(Romania)  and  1,52%  (Cyprus).  In  2010  the  visa  refusal  rate  was  1,30%  (Bulgaria),  6,89% 
(Romania) and 7,39% (Cyprus). In 2011 the visa refusal rate was 0,58% (Bulgaria) and 7,61% 
(Romania). No figures are available for Cyprus for 2011.  

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Regulation  (EC)  No  562/2006  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  15  March  2006 
establishing  a  Community  Code  on  the  rules  governing  the  movement  of  persons  across  borders  (OJ 
L 105, 13.4.2006, p. 1). 

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In  2011,  according  to  information  provided  by  some  Member  States,  the  main  grounds  for 
refusal were that the justification for the purpose and conditions of the intended stay was not 
provided  or  not  reliable  and  that  the  applicants  were  not  able  to  show  convincingly  their 
motivation to return to the Republic of Moldova. 

An  amended  EU-Republic  of  Moldova  Visa  Facilitation  Agreement  was  signed  on 
27 June 2012. 

2.3. 

EU-Republic  of  Moldova  Readmission  Agreement  and  the  readmission  regime 
applied by the Republic of Moldova 

EU-Republic of Moldova Readmission Agreement  

The EU-Republic of Moldova Readmission Agreement enables the swift and facilitated return 
of irregular migrants on a reciprocal basis, and, as such, contributes to mitigating the risk of 
irregular migration between the Republic of Moldova and the EU. The agreement entered into 
force on 1 January 2008. The Republic of Moldova has thus accepted, and is implementing, 
clear obligations and terms for readmitting its nationals who do not, or who no longer, fulfil 
the conditions for entry to, or stay on, the territory of the EU Member States, as well as for 
third country nationals and stateless persons who illegally and directly entered the territory of 
the Member States after having stayed on, or transited through, the territory of the Republic of 
Moldova, or who hold a visa or residence permit issued by the Republic of Moldova. 

Member States regularly report on the overall satisfactory implementation of the EU-Republic 
of  Moldova  Readmission  Agreement.  This  is  confirmed  by  the  meetings  of  the  Joint 
Readmission  Committee,  where  both  sides  exchange  information  on  implementation,  and 
where  so  far  no  particular  problems  were  raised.  During  the  most  recent  Joint  Readmission 
Committee  meeting  in  Chisinau  on  23  May  2012,  with  the  participation  of  EU  Member 
States, the Commission registered an overall satisfactory implementation of the Agreement.  

The Republic of Moldova has furthermore concluded bilateral Implementing Protocols under 
the EU-Republic of Moldova Readmission Agreement. Implementing Protocols entered into 
force with Austria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, 
Romania  and  Slovakia.  Negotiations  with  Bulgaria,  Italy,  Poland,  the  Netherlands 
(negotiating also on behalf of Belgium and Luxembourg) were finalised. Negotiations are on-
going  with  Cyprus,  Portugal  and  Spain.  Negotiations  could  possibly  start  in  the  future, 
pending on-going consideration, with Finland, Ireland, Sweden and United Kingdom.  

Denmark  as  well  as  Switzerland  concluded  Readmission  Agreements  with  the  Republic  of 
Moldova. 

The Republic of Moldova is achieving steady results in this area and its considerable efforts in 
this regard should be further pursued towards the rapid conclusion of outstanding talks with 
Member States. 

Readmission regime applied by the Republic of Moldova 

In addition to the Readmission Agreement with the EU, the Republic of Moldova has already 
concluded  or  is  in  the  process  of  negotiating  readmission  agreements  with  several  third 
countries.  The  Readmission  Agreements  are  already  in  force  with  Norway,  Ukraine  and 
FYROM. The Republic of Moldova has signed Readmission Agreements with Serbia, Bosnia 
and Herzegovina and Montenegro. Negotiations are on-going with Turkey, Ukraine (in order 

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to replace the 1997 Readmission Agreement), Albania, the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan 
and  might  soon  start  with  Lebanon.  The  Republic  of  Moldova  should  consider  opening 
negotiations  for  readmission  agreements  also  with  other  important  transit  countries  in  its 
neighbourhood as well as with source countries of migration. 

2.4. Romania-Republic of Moldova Local Border Traffic Agreement 

The Romania-Republic of Moldova Local Border Traffic (LBT) Agreement entered into force 
in  October  2010.  According  to  the  Commission's  Second  report  on  the  implementation  and 
functioning  of  the  local  border  traffic  regime  set  up  by  Regulation  No  1931/200610,  the 
Romania-Republic of Moldova LBT Agreement fully complies with the LBT Regulation.  

2.5. Visa regime applied by the Republic of Moldova  

The  countries  whose  citizens  are  exempted  from  having  a  visa  to  enter  the  Republic  of 
Moldova for up to 90 days are: all Member States of the European Union, Canada, the Holy 
See,  Iceland,  Japan,  Andorra,  Monaco,  the  Liechtenstein,  Norway,  San  Marino,  Israel, 
Switzerland, the  USA, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the 
Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.  

The obligation to apply for a visa is abolished for holders of diplomatic and service passports 
of  Albania,  Brazil,  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina,  Croatia,  Montenegro,  FYROM,  Peru,  Serbia, 
Turkey and Vietnam (for stays up to 90 days) and of China, Iran and Turkmenistan (for stays 
up to 30 days).  

Negotiations  on  a  possible  visa  free  regime  are  on-going  with  Chile,  Mexico,  Serbia  and 
Turkey.  

3 - POSSIBLE MIGRATORY IMPACTS OF FUTURE VISA LIBERALISATION  

3.1. Current situation 

Migratory flows in general 

The Republic of Moldova occupies one of the first places on the list of countries dependent on 
remittances  (4th  place  in  the  ranking  of  remittances'  share  in  GDP11)  and,  consequently,  on 
labour migration. Emigration is perceived as an important option to earn one's livelihood.  

The  main  destinations  of  Moldovan  migrants  are  CIS  countries  (mainly  the  Russian 
Federation) and EU Member States. Turkey, the USA, Canada and Israel are also important 
destinations.  Within  the  EU,  the  main  countries  of  destination  are  Italy,  Spain,  Portugal, 
Germany, Romania, the Czech Republic and Greece.12 

According  to  EUROSTAT  data,  the  number  of  Moldovan  citizens  registered  in  the  EU 
Member  States  has  increased  continuously  from  89.033  in  2006  to  190.857  in  2011.  This 

10 
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12 

See COM (2011) 47 final. 
The definition of migrant that is used by the Republic of Moldova to calculate remittances is quite wide 
–  it  captures  stays  of  6  months  or  more,  whereas  most  countries  base  their  calculation  on  stays  of  at 
least 12 months.  
Data  available  at  http://www.carim-east.eu/900/moldovan-emigration-stocks-residing-in-the-european-
union-by-country-of-residence-most-recent-data-circa-2010. 

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increase  might  be  largely  due  to  regularisation  programmes  in  different  Member  States  and 
through  the  implementation  of  the  2011  Labour  Agreement  with  Italy.  For  this  reason,  it 
appears  that  these  progressive  increases  in  number  of  migrants  should  not  be  considered 
necessarily  as  an  indication  of  actual  increases  in  migration  flows  from  the  Republic  of 
Moldova. Indicators regarding visas issued, regular passenger flows, refusals of entry, use of 
false documents, illegal stay and illegal border-crossing would point to a rather stable or only 
moderately increasing trend in terms of migratory movements of Moldovan citizens towards 
the EU. 

As  mentioned  above,  CIS  countries  are  an  important  destination  for  Moldovan  migrants. 
There are three major differences in factors underlying the choice of destination between CIS 
and the EU:  

•  Entry method: Travel costs to CIS countries are lower and the formalities are limited 

(visa-free regime).  

•  Reasons  for  labour  migration  (push  and  pull  factors):  Migrants  opting  for  CIS 
countries  are  often  not  able  to  obtain  EU  visas  and  are  more  likely  to  respond  to 
immediate  push  factors  in  the  Republic  of  Moldova  (poverty  and  poor  employment 
prospects),  whereas  migrants  opting  for  the  EU  are  more  likely  to  find  themselves 
pulled by the existing migrant networks in destination countries. Diasporas in the EU 
are  highly  significant  for  the  strategy  of  would-be  migrants  as  peers’  experience 
enables  them  to  evaluate  costs,  risks  and  profitability  of  their  extended  stay.  Frontex 
estimates  that  75%  of  Moldovan  migrants  are  believed  already  to  have  an  income-
generating  activity  waiting  for  them  upon  arrival  in  the  destination  country.  In  short, 
labour  migration  to  CIS  countries  tends  to  be  less  planned  and  more  driven  by 
immediate  needs,  whereas  migration  to  the  EU  Member  States  is  more  likely  to  be 
driven both by advice and opportunity. 

•  The duration of migration: As travel costs and risks of irregularity are comparatively 
low in CIS countries, CIS migration is quite seasonal in character. On the other hand, 
due to higher re-entry risks and travel costs involved in a possible illegal entry method, 
most  EU-bound  migrants  leave  the  Republic  of  Moldova  for  extended  periods.  A 
significant number of them already have the intention to settle in the Member State of 
destination  when  taking  the  decision  to  migrate.  Migration  to  the  CIS  is  therefore 
predominantly circular, whereas migration to the EU is more likely to be of permanent 
nature.  

According  to  the  EUROSTAT  official  data  on  residence  permits,  labour  migrants  from  the 
Republic of Moldova in the EU are predominantly women (in 2010 24.845 residence permits 
for carrying out remunerated activity were issued to women, compared with 8.298 issued to 
men13).  Men  prevail  in  several  Member  States,  most  visibly  in  Poland  and  Portugal. 
Moldovan citizens mostly work in domestic, construction and agriculture sectors, with a low 
rate of migrants in highly-skilled positions. According to the Moldovan authorities, Moldovan 
migrants  are  relatively  young,  aged  between  20  and  49  years.14  The  proportion  of  migrants 
with higher education was 10% in 2010 and tends to increase.  

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14 

Data from 14 Member States. 
The full picture of socio-economic data is available at http://www.carim-east.eu/database/demographic-
and-economic-module/?search=1&fromto=from&cmct=Republic 
of 
Moldova&nocmct=European+Union. 

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Regular passenger flows 

The number of passengers exiting the Republic of Moldova has been steadily growing in the 
past  few  years,  both  at  the  land  and  air  borders.  At  the  air  borders  426.129  passengers 
were reported in 2009, 481.231 in 2010, and 421.459 in the first three quarters of 2011. At the 
land border with Romania, 1.078.024 passengers were reported in 2009, 1.922.753 in 2010, 
and 1.712.710 in the first three quarters of 2011.15 

Irregular migration  

Refusal rates of short-stay visas varied between Schengen States from 23% in the case of the 
Czech Republic to 5,3% in the case of Germany in 2010. In 2011 the highest refusal rate was 
in  the  case  of  Italy  (14,1%)  and  the  lowest  in  the  case  of  Germany  (6,41%).  The  average 
refusal  rate  for  Schengen  short-stay  visa  applications  was  9,7%  in  2011  (decreasing  from 
11,43% in 2010 and 10,15 % in 2009), but remaining higher than the global average refusal 
rate in the Schengen area (5,5%) (see also above under section 2.2).  

The  two  non-Schengen  Member  States,  Bulgaria  and  Romania,  refused  respectively  7,49% 
and  4,45%  of  national  short-stay  visa  applications  in  2009.  In  2010  the  refusal  rates  were 
1,3%  for  Bulgaria  and  6,89%  for  Romania  and  in  2011  the  refusal  rates  were  0,58%  for 
Bulgaria and 7,61% for Romania (see also above under section 2.2).  

In 2011, 3.435 illegally staying Moldovan nationals were identified in the EU, 15% less than 
in  the  same  period  of  2010  and  1.571  Moldovan  nationals  were  refused  entry  at  the  EU 
external borders, 7% less than in the same period of 2010 (see table below). 

FRAN Indicators for Moldovan nationals  

2009  % of 
 EU 
total 

2010 % of 
 EU 
total 

2011 % of 
 EU 
total 

% change 
2011 vs. 
2010 

4.182 
3.452 
730 
1.866 
1.582 
260 
24 
: 

1,0% 4.023
1,0% 3.149
874
1,0%
1,7% 1.690
3,0% 1.427
232
0,5%
31
0,5%
n.a.
:

1,1% 3.435
1,1% 2.331
1,5% 1.104
1,6% 1.571
2,6% 1.360
200
0,5%
11
0,6%
n.a.
1.463

1,0% 
0,8% 
1,6% 
1,3% 
2,3% 
0,4% 
0,1% 
0,6% 

-15%
-26%
26%
-7,0%
-4,7%
-14%
-65%
n.a.

Illegal stay 
Inland 

At the border(on exit) 
Refusals of entry 

Land 
Air 
Sea 
Return 

issued 

decisions 

Effective returns 

: 

n.a.

:

n.a.

2.012

1,4% 

n.a.

Source: Frontex, FRAN data as of 7 May 2012 

According  to  Frontex,  most  migrants  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  enter  through  land 
borders mainly due to lower costs and also to a lower risk of refusal. Currently, the risk of 
being refused entry at the external air borders is much higher compared to the external land 

15 

Data  provided  by  Frontex.  Passenger  flows  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  include  all  nationalities 
leaving the country. 

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borders.  Most  irregular  migrants  enter  the  EU  through  regular  Border  Crossing  Points  and 
procedures, and subsequently overstay. 

Thus,  in  the  case  of  Republic  of  Moldova,  as  reported  by  several  Member  States,  illegal 
border-crossings  represent  a  marginal  issue  (213  illegal  border-crossings  detected  at  the 
main sections of the external green border of the EU during the first three quarters of 2011). 
Moreover,  yearly  comparison  with  2010  shows  an  important  decline  of  34%  in  detected 
illegal  border  crossings.  Not  surprisingly,  the  share  of  Moldovan  citizens  in  the  overall 
number of illegal EU border crossings remained very low during 2011.  

In  terms  of  trends,  Frontex  noted  that  a  constant  decline  in  detections  of  illegal  border-
crossings  by  Moldovan  citizens.  Moreover,  the  same  persons  are  often  engaged  in  multiple 
illegal border-crossings. 

According  to  Frontex,  the  number  of  Moldovan  nationals  detected  using  false  travel 
documents has been in constant decline since 2009 (174 in 2009, 114 in 2010 and 45 in the 
first  three  quarters  of  2011).  The  most  frequent  cases  are  those  of  counterfeited  Romanian 
identity cards. Europol mentions also falsified Italian identity cards and residence permits as 
well as Spanish residence permits (see also below under section 4). According to the figures 
provided by the Moldovan authorities, there is a decrease in the number of cases of using false 
identity and false documents by Moldovan citizens. 

Asylum  

According to EUROSTAT, the numbers of asylum applications from Moldovan nationals in 
the EU are low and decreasing (1.110 asylum applications in 2009, 735 asylum applications 
in  2010  and  602  in  2011).  The  number  of  positive  final  decisions  on  applications  for 
international protection submitted by Moldovan nationals in the EU Member States has also 
decreased (25 in 2009, 20 in 2010 and 15 in 2011). According to data gathered by Frontex, 
most Moldovans apply for asylum in Austria, after their illegal stay has been detected. 

According  to  the  data  provided  by  Moldovan  authorities,  the  numbers  of  asylum  seekers  in 
the Republic of Moldova, are relatively low (60  applications in 2011, 90 in 2010 and 50 in 
2009).  In  2011  three  persons  were  granted  refugee  status  and  twenty  persons  received 
humanitarian protection status (including stateless persons).  

Legal migration flows 

The number of Moldovan citizens legally residing in EU Member States has grown in the past 
years  (in  2008  –  129.642,  in  2009  –  166.977  and  in  2010  –  184.501).  Data  gathered  by 
EUROSTAT shows that the highest number of residence permits is delivered for the purpose 
of remunerated activity and the second largest category are permits delivered for reasons of 
family reunification, with an increasing tendency.  

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Residence permits delivered for the first time for Moldovan citizens 

education 

remunerated activity 

family 

other reasons 

Total 

2008 

2009 

2010 

2.727 

2.981 

2.931 

Source: EUROSTAT  

36.766 

10.555 

8.394 

58.442 

21.977 

10.905 

9.729 

45.592 

34.648 

16.674 

1.353 

55.606 

According to data gathered by the EUI, highly-skilled migrants already in the EU do not see 
the  visa  regime  as  a  problem  for  themselves,  but  rather  for  their  families  and  to  maintain 
family  ties.  Migrants,  including  those  highly-skilled,  and  tourists,  tend  not  to  know  their 
rights (e.g. right of appeal against a visa refusal) under the Visa Facilitation Agreement and 
the Visa Code. Diverging practices in the implementation of the visa facilitation provisions by 
the consulates of the EU Member States are one of the main reasons of concern for highly-
skilled  Moldovan  migrants  and  their  families  and  plays  a  role  when  they  decide  on  the 
destination  to  migrate  to.  Similarly,  the  waiting  time  for  decisions  on  visa  applications,  the 
costs16 and the paperwork involved are reported to be important hurdles (keeping in mind that 
the Visa Facilitation Agreement and the Visa Code only apply to short-term stays and are not 
applicable to long-term stays, which are governed by national legislation).  

Finally, according to the EUI analysis, the visa regime has a limiting effect on exchanges of 
researchers  and  students, who are often  unable to  participate  in conferences or exchanges 
due to refusals or delays in issuing visas. This limits the scope for cooperation and exchange 
of ideas between  the  EU  and  the Republic of Moldova  and can be counterproductive to the 
efforts of the EU to support the development of the country and to bring it closer to EU norms 
and standards. Moreover, for the same reasons, it poses challenges to business contacts and 
exchanges. 

3.2. Key possible impacts  

Migratory flows in general 

When examining the key possible impacts of visa liberalisation on migration flows between 
the  Republic  of  Moldova  and  the  EU,  it  is  relevant  to  highlight  that  visa  liberalisation  will 
only  reduce  the  preparation  time  and  costs  associated  with  travelling  to  the  EU.  Labour 
migration to the EU or the Russian Federation is likely to remain a very attractive strategy to 
earn one's livelihood. Regardless of the economic and political developments in the Russian 
Federation, EU Member States are likely to remain an attractive option for labour migrants, 
even if faced with no or very slow economic growth. Likewise, the demand for domestic work 
in  the  Member  States  is  likely  to  remain  resilient  to  possible  future  economic  downturns. 
However,  the  EUI  notes  that  the  demographic  reality  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova  makes  it 

16 

It is important to note that the price for a Schengen visa remains very significant for Moldovan citizens, 
taking into account the average income in the country. For example, in 2010 €35 for a visa constituted 
roughly  34%  of  the  average  monthly  income.  One  should  add  to  this  the  cost  of  translating  the 
necessary documentary evidence. 

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clear that the pool of migrants is drying up as the country enters the most accelerated ageing 
process in Europe. 

As  evidenced  by  Moldovan  labour  migration  to  Portugal17,  a  self-regulatory  mechanism  of 
labour  migratory  flows,  whereby  legal  and  irregular  immigration  tend  to  increase  during 
periods of higher demand for labour and to decrease when such demand subsides, is likely to 
remain in place. Therefore, the opening of legal channels of travel will possibly allow for a 
more circular migration pattern of those Moldovan nationals who are engaged in illegal 
work in the EU. The EUI noted that the same regulatory mechanisms were in place in 1990s, 
when nationals of the Central European countries could travel visa-free to the EU. 

The  data  gathered  by  the  EUI  suggests  that  there  will  be  an  increase  in  temporary  and 
short-term  flows  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  to  the  EU,  be  it  for  bona  fide  visits 
(majority)  or  short-term  employment.  Based  on  the  previous  experiences  (e.g.  the  lifting  of 
the visa obligation for citizens of the Central European States in the mid-1990s or their 2004 
accession  to  the  EU),  lifting  a  barrier  to  movement  results  in  an  increase  in  migration  that 
stabilises over time.  

The  size  of  such  increase,  as  the  experience  of  internal  mobility  after  the  last  EU 
enlargements  shows,  depends  on  a  number  of  factors,  which,  apart  from  the  proximity  and 
openness, include also the existence of migrant networks, the state of the labour market in the 
host  country,  opportunities  at  home,  or  competition  from  poles  of  attraction  other  than  the 
EU.  The  character  of  the  increase  in  migration  is  likely  to  be  temporary,  although  the  EUI 
does  not  exclude  an  increase  in  permanent  migration,  considering  the  family  reunification 
patterns  in  some  Member  States  (e.g.  Italy).  It  is  difficult  to  predict  the  duration  of  this 
temporary increase as it will depend on several variables: the propensity to migrate, financial 
means to be spent on tourism, the state of the economy in the Republic of Moldova and in the 
country of destination.  

Visa  liberalisation  is  not  likely  to  change  the  length  of  the  period  that  Moldovan  migrants 
staying irregularly in the EU will spend visiting their home countries, given their lack of spare 
vacation time and the risk of losing their jobs in the EU. No impact is to be expected on the 
circularity of the Moldovans living with a residence permit in the EU as they already currently 
do not need a visa to return from the Republic of Moldova to the EU.  

Regular passenger flows 

Regular  passenger  flows  are  likely  to  increase,  given  that  visa  liberalisation  will  make 
travelling to the EU easier and less costly.  

Irregular migration 

The migratory pressure towards the EU borders will rather increase than decrease if a pattern 
of economic and social problems will prevail in the Republic of Moldova, notwithstanding the 
country’s  rapid  pace  of  structural  reform  and  high  economic  growth  (GDP  growth  rates  of 
7,1% in 2010 and 6,4% in 2011). According to EUBAM, the volume of irregular migration 
from the Republic of Moldova to the EU Member States is likely to remain the same. The 
operating  mode,  the  routing  and  the  number  of  irregular  migrants  may  differ  annually 
depending on several internal and external push and pull factors.  

17 

Analysis made by Frontex. 

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The  ratio  of  the  risk  of  being  refused  entry  at  the  external  air  borders  to  the  external  land 
borders  is  not  likely  to  change  if  the  visa  obligation  is  lifted.  Most  labour  migrants  will 
continue to opt for entering the EU at land borders and subsequently moving to the Member 
States of their destination. 

In  terms  of  destination  choices,  Member  States  with  the  largest  communities  of  Moldovan 
citizens are likely to remain targeted by labour migrants from the Republic of Moldova.  

Frontex  and  the  EUI  suggest  that  labour  migrants  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  would 
overstay the allowed 90 days in any six-month period if there is a risk that they would lose 
their job. However, to avoid the negative consequences of detection for illegal stay, migrants 
could rather opt for more frequent exit and re-entry back to the EU (in which case the use of 
false  entry/exit  stamps  could  increase).  On  the  other  hand,  as  the  experience  of  intra-CIS 
mobility  as  well  as  the  experience  of  nationals  of  some  Central  and  Eastern  European 
countries in the 1990s shows, the possibility of legal circulation can influence the decision to 
move  back  and  forth  in  the  prescribed  periods  of  time.  In  fact,  the  visa-free  regime  may 
provide  an  avenue  for  getting  out  of  irregularity  for  Moldovan  nationals  staying  illegally 
and who are currently stranded in the EU, if the consequences of their overstay being detected 
at the border when leaving the EU are softened.  

The organised crime groups dealing with trafficking in human beings and facilitating irregular 
migration  are  likely  to  adapt  their  operating  mode  to  the  visa-free  regime  and  possibly 
increase their activities (see also section 4). 

If  the  rules  on  issuing  identity  and  travel  documents  and  their  security  are  not  strictly 
applied,  including  regarding  the  ICAO-compliant  biometric  passports,  individuals  and 
organised crime groups could try to exploit the loopholes. 

EUBAM  foresees  that  the  Republic  of  Moldova  will  keep  its  current  position  of  a  transit 
country  for  irregular  migrants  to  the  EU.  EUBAM  argues  that  it  is  likely  that  visa 
liberalisation could make the Republic of Moldova more attractive for migrants from CIS and 
Central Asian countries. 

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On the basis of the above assessment, the following measures should be considered: 

By the Republic of Moldova, in line with the VLAP: 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

Continue  to  strengthen  border  controls,  including  risk  analysis  and  surveillance 
measures, as well as preventing and fighting corruption at the border, and continue 
to enhance cooperation with EUBAM in all areas of border management; 

Organise  continuous,  targeted  information  campaigns  aiming  to  clarify  the  rights 
and obligations of visa-free travel, including information on rules regulating access 
to the EU labour market (including through the EU Immigration Portal) and liability 
for any abuse of rights under the visa-free regime; 

Regularly share with the EU authorities data on lost and stolen biometric passports, 
in particular using Interpol's Lost and Stolen Travel Document database; 

Establish  and  apply  proportionate,  effective  and  dissuasive  sanctions  for  persons 
convicted of selling or lending their passports; 

Strengthen  the  legal  and  institutional  framework  regarding  the  "Civil  Registry"  in 
order  to  prevent  the  abuse  of  change  of  names  or  identity  for  the  purpose  of 
obtaining  a  new  passport.  Clear  rules  should  be  established  and  applied  regarding 
name  changes;  the  legal  and  institutional  framework  should  be  strengthened  and 
include effective control as well as traceability measures; 

• 

Prevent and fight corruption at all levels and in all areas.  

By the EU and Member States: 

• 

• 

• 

Additional  efforts  should  be  made  to  gradually  increase  the  share  of  travellers  whose 
biometric data have been checked by the border control authorities of EU Member States; 

New IT solutions for calculating the total period of stay could be introduced at all external 
border sections experiencing large flows of Moldovan citizens in line with the principles of 
the Communication on smart borders;18 

Member  States  should  make  further  efforts  to  provide  the  Commission  and  relevant  EU 
agencies with detailed statistics on the implementation of the readmission agreements. 

Other relevant measures include, at EU and Member States level: 

• 

• 

• 

Harmonisation  of  rules  against  illegal  employment  of  third-country  nationals,  as 
initiated by the Employers Sanctions Directive;19 

Facilitating legal migration to the EU; 

Continue  cooperation  with  the  Republic  of  Moldova  to  create  better  employment 
opportunities in this country. 

18 

19 

European  Commission's  Communication  on  Smart  borders  -  options  and  the  way  ahead,  COM 
(2011) 680 final. 
Directive 2009/52/EC of 18 June 2009. 

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Asylum 

There are several relevant issues that need to be considered in order to assess the impact of the 
visa liberalisation on the number of asylum applications, as the previous experience with the 
Western  Balkans  has  shown.20  In  particular  a  low  level  of  integration  of  minority 
communities, in particular Roma,  and  their poor access to schooling, housing, employment 
and  healthcare,  may  increase  their  propensity  to  abuse  the  asylum  system  in  EU  Member 
States.  Furthermore,  severe  political  and  economic  marginalisation,  a  significant  gap  in  the 
earning potential compared to the rest of society, geographic proximity to the EU, low travel 
costs and support associated with asylum claims in the EU Member States made the asylum 
seeking  an  attractive  short-term  migration  strategy  for  communities  across  the  Western 
Balkans. Financial return assistance for failed asylum seekers can also be a powerful factor.  

In the Republic of Moldova there are a number of ethnic minorities, the most significant of 
which are Ukrainians, Russians, Gagauz, Bulgarians and Roma (see section 5). The Gagauz 
minority has seen its rights recognised and constitutionally guaranteed by a specific autonomy 
status  for  the  Autonomous  Territorial  Unit  of  Gagauzia,  established  in  1994.  Although  the 
Roma population are generally a disadvantaged group with regard to education, employment, 
health,  living  conditions  and  participation  in  decision-making  process,  the  authorities  of  the 
Republic of Moldova have proven their commitment to improve the situation of that minority 
and made progress in the support and integration of the Roma community. An Action Plan on 
Roma  Support  2011-2015  has  been  adopted  and  is  currently  implemented,  after  being 
upgraded up to international requirements in January 2012. Roma Community Mediators have 
been  put  in  place  to  serve  as  intermediaries  between  the  authorities  and  the  minority 
communities  to  help  implement  the  Action  Plan  and,  beyond  this,  help  better  integrate  the 
Roma minority. 

Therefore, although it cannot be excluded, there is currently no indication for an increase in 
asylum applications from Moldovan citizens after the visa liberalisation.  

On the basis of the above assessment, the following measures should be considered: 

By the Republic of Moldova 

• 

Organise  continuous,  targeted  information  campaigns  aiming  to  clarify  the  rights 
and obligations of visa-free travel, including information on rules regulating access 
to  the  EU  labour  market  and  liability  for  any  abuse  of  rights  under  the  visa-free 
regime. 

By the EU and Member States 

• 

Further convergence of Member States’ policies on asylum procedures, in particular 
with  regard  to  the  length  of  procedures,  benefits  afforded  to  asylum  seekers  and 
possible financial return assistance. 

Legal migration 

According  to  the  EUI,  whereas  the  travel  of  migrants  in  the  EU  to  their  home  countries  is 
likely to become somewhat more frequent, an increase in flows of new migrants to the EU 

20 

Post visa liberalisation monitoring reports for the Western Balkan countries SEC (2011) 659 final and 
SEC (2011) 1570 final. 

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from  the  Republic  of  Moldova  is  not  likely  to  occur.  No  impact  is  to  be  expected  on  the 
circularity of the Moldovan citizens holding a residence permit in the EU as already under the 
current regime they do not need a visa to return from the Republic of Moldova to the EU. The 
availability of financial means (rather than the requirement to obtain a visa) will be the key 
factor shaping the decision of Moldovan migrants to travel home.  

Visa  liberalisation  will  help  to  enhance  the  positive  impact  of  migration  on  development, 
especially by mitigating the negative social consequences of migration through facilitation of 
maintaining  family  ties  and  contact  with  the  Republic  of  Moldova.  It  will  decrease  the 
negative  impact  on  families  left  behind,  in  particular  minors  and  the  elderly,  as  it  will  be 
easier  for  them  to  visit  the  migrant  family  member.  However,  the  availability  of  financial 
resources will continue to play a key role in that respect.  

The  easing  of  short-term  travels  as  a  result  of  visa  liberalisation  will  make  the  EU  a  more 
attractive destination for highly-skilled migrants for two main reasons: facilitating family 
visits, as mentioned above, and, more generally, forming a more positive perception of the EU 
as a destination.  

Visa  liberalisation  will  have  a  positive  impact  on  business  exchanges  and  activity, 
research  and  innovation,  and  mobility  for  students  and  researchers,  with  a  long-term 
positive knock-on effect on the economy. 

4 - POSSIBLE SECURITY IMPACTS

21

 OF FUTURE VISA LIBERALISATION 

4.1. Current situation 

According  to  Europol,  Moldovan  organised  crime  groups  (OCGs)  are  already  present  and 
active  in  at  least  nine  EU  Member  States.  Some  are  involved  in  well-organised  criminal 
activities. They are linked with the Russian-speaking horizontal network of "thieves-in-law". 
Others are of smaller size, with limited operational range, lacking structured preparation and 
overall  strategy.  Their  links  with  domestic  EU  OCGs  are  limited.  Moldovan  OCGs  do  not 
seem to hold an important role in the EU OC hierarchies.  

It is important to note that like for all OCGs originating in the Former Soviet Union (FSU), 
there  are  solid  links  between  Moldovan  OCGs  and  OCGs  from  other  parts  of  the  FSU. 
Sometimes  they  play  the  role  of  intermediaries  between  OCGs  from  the  FSU  and  OCGs 
active  in  the  EU.  Thus,  there  is  a  tendency  to  cluster  Moldovan  OCGs  with  other  criminal 
groups under the label of "Russian speaking OCGs".  

Moldovan  OCGs  are  active  in  several  EU  criminal  hubs,  as  defined  by  the  2011  Europol 
Organised Crime Threat Assessment (OCTA).22  

According  to  Europol,  Moldovan  OCGs  are  particularly  active  in  the  following  criminal 
activities: trafficking in human beings, facilitating irregular immigration, organised property 

21 

22 

This section is focussing on those criminal activities that could potentially benefit from visa-free travel 
for Moldovan citizens and on examining the possible impacts of visa liberalisation on organised crime 
groups. 
https://www.europol.europa.eu/content/press/europol-organised-crime-threat-assessment-2011-429. 
NB:  The  Moldovan  authorities  provided  a  contribution  to  the  2011  OCTA  which  was  submitted  in 
November 2011. 

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crime, payment card fraud, cigarettes smuggling and cybercrime. Some of these findings are 
confirmed by the feedback of "Operation Akkerman"23. 

i) Trafficking in human beings (THB)  

The Republic of Moldova is a source country and, to a lesser extent, a transit and destination 
country for women and girls for the purpose of sexual exploitation, and for men, women and 
children  for  the  purpose  of  labour  exploitation.24  Moldovan  victims  seem  to  be  more  and 
more exploited for forced labour or services, in particular as nurses, baby-sitters, and carers 
for  family  or  elderly  people.  Moldovan  OCGs  are  mainly  active  in  the  recruitment  of 
victims,  mostly  for  sexual  exploitation  in  the  EU.  In  some  cases  they  exploit  the  victims 
themselves. The main modi operandi used by traffickers have not changed significantly in the 
last few years. Recruiters attract their victims mainly through deceit and occasionally through 
the use of violence.25 

Victims  are  often  forced  to  pay  for  the  necessary  documents,  ranging  from  passports  and 
identity cards to visas, contracts with night-clubs owners and health insurance. This increases 
their debt to the OCGs and prolongs their exploitation. OCGs make use of specific legitimate 
business structures to recruit and exploit victims in the EU. 

According  to  the  figures  provided  by  the  Moldovan  authorities,  there  is  a  decrease  in  the 
statistics on THB: the number of registered cases has decreased from 243 in 2006 to 111 in 
201126.  With  regard  to  the  number  of  identified  and  assisted  victims,  according  to  IOM 
figures, there has also been a decrease from 273 in 2007 to 98 in 201127. With regard to the 
number  of  cases  of  trafficking  in  children  there  has  also  been  a  decrease  from  61 cases  in 
2006 to 23 in 201128. 

23 

24 
25 

26 

27 

28 

"Operation Akkerman" is an inter-agency and international joint border control operation (JBCO) run 
by  EUBAM  and  Europol,  together  with  the  Moldovan  and  Ukrainian  authorities.  During  two 
intelligence-led  operational  phases  in  2011  –  the  second  of  which  took  place  in  September  2011  –
smuggled goods were seized such as cigarettes, alcohol and stolen vehicles, and customs fraud worth € 
3.2 million was detected. This was also the result of the better structural organisation of the operation 
aimed to enhance, notably the effective use of intelligence, the establishment of Task Force Teams as 
operational  arms  of  the  JBCO,  the  substantial  improvement  of  the  interface  of  the  Communications 
Centre and the further extension of the support provided by key international players. 
United States Department of State Trafficking in Persons Report – Republic of Moldova, June 2012. 
The victims are approached either directly or by means of employment agencies or advertisements. As a 
rule, they offer employment abroad as domestic help, baby sitters, waitresses, farm workers and other 
types of legitimate activities that will allegedly be well paid if compared with the average salaries in the 
Republic of Moldova. Cases in which the victims are actually kidnapped by traffickers occur, but are 
less  common.  After  the  victims  are  smuggled  into  the  EU,  they  are  deprived  of  their  documents, 
isolated and severely limited in their movements. Unable to speak the local language, with no means of 
proving their identity, the victims are constantly under the control of their exploiters, suffering major 
violations of the basic human rights. In many cases the victims ask for help through their clients. 
The  number  of  cases  (i.e.  offences  registered  within  the  Criminal  and  forensic  information  Register 
where only the cases which were qualified as crime/criminal act according to the Criminal Code based 
on which criminal case was opened): 243 (2006), 251 (2007), 215 (2008), 185 (2009), 140 (2010), 111 ( 
2011). 
The  number  of  identified  and  assisted  victims:  273  (2007),  158  (2008),  159  (2009),  139  (2010), 
98 (2011). 
The number of cases of trafficking in children: 61 (2006), 47 (2007), 31 (2008), 21 (2009), 21 (2010), 
23 (2011). 

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According  to  the  figures  provided  by  the  Moldovan  authorities,  several  criminal  groups 
involved  in  THB  and  related  crimes  were  identified  and  dismantled  following  operative 
investigation measures29. 

ii) Facilitating irregular immigration 

OCGs  are  also  involved  in  the  exploitation  of  Moldovan  migrants  who  do  not  enter,  stay, 
reside  or  work  legitimately  in  the  destination  country.  Moldovan  OCGs  work  closely  with 
OCGs  from  neighbouring  countries,  especially  Ukraine,  by  assisting  each  other  in  matters 
related  to  transportation  or  falsified  documentation.  In  relation  to  facilitated  irregular 
immigration  from  the  Republic  of  Moldova,  cases  of  use  of  falsified  Italian  and  Romanian 
identity cards and Italian and Spanish residence permits were reported (see also above under 
section 3). 

OCGs  dealing  with  the  facilitation  of  irregular  migration  of  Moldovan  citizens  have  active 
members  in  the  Republic  of  Moldova  which  are  involved  in  the  recruitment  of  potential 
irregular migrants. Members of Moldovan OCGs have also been identified in Ukraine (where 
they  were  involved  in  the  falsification  of  documents  and  as  guides  at  the  border  between 
Ukraine and Hungary) and also in Romania (where they were dealing with counterfeiting of 
identity  cards  and  passports).  Legal  businesses  are  reportedly  used  to  facilitate  irregular 
migration. 

iii) Drug trafficking 

The Republic of Moldova is considered to be mainly a transit route and allegedly a location 
for storage and further processing of cocaine30. 

According  to  the  figures  provided  by  the  Moldovan  authorities  there  is  a  decrease  in  drug 
trafficking from 2144 criminal cases in 2007 to 1606 in 201131. 

The  findings  at  the  Moldovan-Ukrainian  border  in  2011  show  the  current  level  of  the  drug 
trafficking32. 

iv) Organised Property Crime 

Moldovan OCGs are involved in a range of organised property crime. They focus in particular 
on  stealing  lorries,  industrial  and  agricultural  vehicles.  The  OCGs  are  of  small  size  (3  to  5 
members),  with  basic  techniques  and  modi  operandi  (mainly  sudden  raids,  use  of  violence 
and need to find a receiver after the crime is committed). 

29 
30 

31 
32 

The number of criminal groups: 39 (2006), 40 (2007), 29 (2008), 40 (2009), 22 (2010) and 40 (2011).  
Russian-speaking individuals resident in Latin America facilitate and organise the trafficking of cocaine 
to the EU and the Russian Federation. A significant cocaine seizure took place in June 2010 in the port 
of Odessa in Ukraine. According to the bill of lading, the shipper of the cargo was a Bolivian company 
and the cargo was supposed to be sent to the address of a private company located in the Republic of 
Moldova. 
The number of criminal cases: 2144 (2007), 2103 (2008), 1865 (2009), 1773 (2010), 1606 (2011). 
In 2011 - in 60 cases - 34,255kg of drugs were seized at the joint border. Amongst the total quantity of 
drugs  61%  were  detected  outside  BCPs  and  in  the  border  area.  The  types  of  detected  drugs  were  as 
follows 
in  2010/2011:  marijuana:  6,916kg/20,54kg,  poppy  straw:  1,21kg/11,34kg,  cannabis: 
0,754kg/2,318kg, which shows an increase in 2011 compared to 2010. 

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v) High excise goods smuggling 

Together  with  Ukraine,  and  increasingly  with  Belarus  and  the  Russian  Federation,  the 
Republic of Moldova is among the main source countries of cigarettes smuggled into the EU 
in  recent  years  and  this  trend  seems  to  increase.  The  Republic  of  Moldova  has  long  been  a 
known source and transit country for the flow of contraband cigarettes into the EU and is 
playing an increasingly important role in this respect as tobacco prices in many EU countries 
rise,  notably  in  the  Member  States  who  acceded  in  2004  or  2007  to  the  EU.  Cigarettes 
originating in the Republic of Moldova are increasingly penetrating black markets of the EU 
Member  States.  This  is  the  reason  why  the  Commission  adopted  in  2011  an  Action  Plan  to 
fight against smuggling of cigarettes and alcohol along the EU Eastern Border33. 

Enhanced cooperation in preventing and combating illicit trade in tobacco products is also one 
of  the  objectives  of  the  Strategic  Framework  for  EU-Republic  of  Moldova  Customs 
Cooperation34.  

The Republic of Moldova is among the main producers of genuine cigarettes smuggled into 
the  EU.  The  most  popular  brand  of  "cheap  white"  cigarettes  is  produced  legally  in  the 
Republic  of  Moldova,  Kaliningrad  and  Ukraine.35  Moldovan  OCGs  also  provide  raw 
materials  to  OCGs  in  the  EU  involved  in  the  production,  packing  and  distribution  of 
counterfeit  cigarettes.  Being  a  low-risk,  high-profit  activity,  it  is  probably  more  widespread 
and intense than official statistics would indicate. 

According  to  the  figures  provided  by  the  Moldovan  authorities,  the  number  of  cigarettes 
packages confiscated increased from 201.588 cigarettes packages in 2008 to 276.337 in 2011. 

vi) Weapons trafficking 

There  are  currently  no  clear  indicators  of  organised  weapons  and  ammunition  trafficking 
across the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. Seizures at that border consisted mainly of cold and 
pneumatic weapons or hunting guns with the associated ammunition while transported from 
Ukraine to the Republic of Moldova.36  

33 
34 

35 

36 

See SEC (2011) 791 final.  
The Strategic Framework was endorsed by Prime Minister Filat and Commissioner Šemeta by exchange 
of letters in October 2011. 
"Cheap white" cigarettes is the tobacco industry term for cigarettes produced entirely independently of 
the traditional tobacco manufacturers. They are cheap cigarette brands legally manufactured, but made 
specifically  for  smuggling  because  they  have  no  legitimate  market.  They  are  often  of  reasonable  and 
consistent  quality,  and  provide  a  good  alternative  to  counterfeit  cigarettes,  whose  quality  can  vary 
significantly. The EU has recently been flooded by smuggled Jin Ling cigarettes, a new brand virtually 
unknown  to  the  authorities  a  few  years  ago.  The  popularity  of  Jin  Ling  is  such  that  it  now  rivals 
Marlboro as the top smuggled brand seized in the EU. 
Imperial Tobacco Limited (ITL) is the world’s fourth largest international tobacco manufacturer. They 
estimate  that  about  20  per  cent  of  all  the  counterfeit  tobacco  products  referred  to  them  by  Law 
Enforcement Agencies are manufactured illegally in Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. 
In  comparison  with  2010,  in  2011  the  number  of  detected  attempts  to  illegally  transport  ammunition 
decreased  by  31%.  At  the  same  time,  the  number  of  detected  ammunition  increased by  36%  (2011 – 
1.995 pieces, 2010 – 1.269 pieces). In most cases, the ammunition was transported from Ukraine to the 
Republic  of  Moldova,  primarily  (74  %)  through  land  border  crossing  points.  In  2011,  in  six  cases, 
3,65 kg of explosives were seized at the joint border (against four cases and 1,47 kg in 2010). In 2011 
only  gunpowder  (3,65kg)  was  detected,  while  in  2010  not  only  gunpowder  (1,2kg)  but  also  trotyl 
(0,27 kg)  was  detected.  90%  of  the  offenders  are  citizens  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova  who  transport 
gunpowder illegally for hunting purposes. In 2011 all cases of illegal transportation of explosives were 

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4.2. Key possible impacts  

Visa liberalisation is not likely to have much effect on the behaviour and modi operandi 
of  the  "more  structured"  OCGs,  as  they  are  already  able,  even  under  the  current  visa 
regime,  to  manage  movements  between  the  EU  and  the  Republic  of  Moldova.  However, 
considering that the expertise they provide to bypass visa restrictions is one of the reasons of 
their success (especially in THB and facilitating irregular immigration) visa liberalisation 
would reduce the demand for such expertise. 

The "less structured" OCGs are more likely to somehow benefit from a visa-free regime. 
Although  these  groups’  activities  are  less  extensive,  their  access  to  the  EU  could  alter  the 
current  criminal  statu  quo  (e.g.  by  making  easier  for  them  to  enter  into  new  criminal 
activities).  

Although  difficult  to  evaluate  based  on  the  available  information,  the  extent  of  the  threat 
posed by Moldovan OCGs to the EU should continue to be monitored. Visa liberalisation 
might change the current dynamics of criminal activities. However, it is difficult to predict at 
this stage the extent to which visa liberalisation will have an impact on each of them. 

i) Trafficking in human beings (THB) 

In relation to THB, visa liberalisation could have an impact on OCG's active in this area, as 
well  as  on  victims  and  routes.  Moldovan  OCG  are  active  in  the  area  of  the  recruitment  of 
victims and on the transportation of victims to the EU; a visa-free regime could offer to EU 
OCGs with a firm grip on the EU criminal markets the opportunity to bypass the Moldovan 
OCGs and to recruit their victims directly.  

At the same time, potential victims of traffickers in human beings, no longer in need of illicit 
help  to  cross  the  border,  might  try  to  enter  the  EU  on  their  own,  thus  reducing  one  of  the 
OCGs’  main  criminal  activities.  One  of  the  "services"  offered  by  traffickers  is  the 
transportation  of  the  victims  into  the  EU,  where  they  are  often  sold  and  exploited  by  other 
OCGs. A visa-free regime de facto nullifies the need for such "service", as the victims would 
not need OCGs' help any more. In order to avoid a decrease in the number of victims and a 
fall  in  profits,  the  OCGs  could  be  inclined  to  define  new  strategies  and  enter  new  criminal 
activities. 

ii) Facilitating irregular immigration 

Under  a  visa-free  regime,  the  Republic  of  Moldova  could  become  more  attractive  for  the 
different OCGs transporting irregular migrants but there is no clear indication in this direction 
(see also section 3 above).  

detected at border crossing points while moved from Ukraine to the Republic of Moldova. Out of the 
general quantity of the detected arms the significant part is electric shock, pneumatic, cold and hunting 
weapons. Also fire arms (seven pieces) and gas arms (two pieces) were detected. The main category of 
persons  who  attempted  to  illegally  transport  arms  is  citizens  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova  (53%)  and 
Ukraine  (28%).  Radioactive  materials  on  the  common  border  were  not  detected.  In  2010-2011  two 
cases  of  seizure  of  radioactive  substances  in  the  Republic  Moldova  were  recorded.  Their  origin  was 
Russia and followed the route via Ukraine for further resale.  

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iii) Drug trafficking 

The Republic of Moldova does not seem likely to become a drug trafficking hub. It may be 
tangentially  touched  upon  by  the  Northern  Route,37  and  it  is  possible  that  some  Moldovan 
OCGs could temporarily stockpile drugs in the Republic of Moldova. 

Regarding the border between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, the current risk level in 
relation to the illegal transportation of narcotics, especially synthetic drugs, via road BCPs is 
likely to remain. 

iv) Organised Property Crime 

Property crime, in many of its different typologies, could be one of the most affected areas. 
Moldovan  OCGs  involved  in  property  crime  might  exploit  visa  liberalisation  and  could 
cooperate with OCGs already established in the EU. 

v) High excise goods smuggling 

A possible important impact could be on cigarette smuggling which could be seen as a low-
risk, high-profit easily manageable criminal activity. 

vi) Weapons trafficking 

Current information available does not give indications as to a possible impact of a visa-free 
regime  on  weapons  trafficking.  Although  the  current  level  of  risk  of  weapons  trafficking  is 
not  high  according  to  seizure  indicators  and  other  information  currently  available,  attention 
should  be  paid  to  the  potential  opportunities  of  weapon  smuggling  in  connection  with  the 
storage of weapons and ammunition in the Transnistrian region. 

On the basis of the above assessment, the following measures should be considered: 

By the Republic of Moldova, in line with VLAP 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

tactical/operational 

Enhance  cooperation  with  neighbouring  countries.  Strengthen  bilateral  and 
international cooperation and information exchange on statistical and analytical data 
and 
as 
initiating/participating  in  joint  cross-border  operations,  joint  investigation  teams, 
and  joint  intelligence  teams,  facilitating  the  exchange  of  liaison  officers  in  such 
operations, offering training for conducting joint border and customs controls. 

through  measures 

data/intelligence, 

such 

Improve training and capacity building with regard to international customs and law 
enforcement cooperation and information exchange. 

Continue to enhance cooperation with EUBAM. 

Coordinate  the  control  activities  at  the  common  border.  Share  intelligence  and 
enhance common situation assessment at the operational level. 

Enhance  the  data  collection  on  criminals  and  OCGs  at  national  level  inter  alia  by 

37 

https://www.europol.europa.eu/content/press/europol-organised-crime-threat-assessment-2011-429. 

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setting up and/or improving the national databases.  

• 

• 

• 

• 

Continue  efforts  to  improve  data  indicators  and  crime  data  collection  in  all  crime 
fields. 

Strengthen the judiciary system, including judicial cooperation in criminal matters, 
in particular mutual legal assistance. 

Implement anti-corruption actions as a matter of priority in all areas, as well as in 
relation  to  wider  rule  of  law  aspects.  The  national  authorities  should  have  the 
capacity to fight corruption at all levels - central, regional, local and sector-specific, 
paying particular attention to the law enforcement and customs authorities. 

Ensure effective protection of witness of THB, and further improve the protection, 
assistance and support to THB victims. 

By the EU and Member States 

• 

• 

• 

Increase  the  operations  run  through  inter-agency  and  international  cooperation  in 
number and scope, following a top-down setting of objectives. Europol could act as 
the platform for the coordination of multilateral law enforcement operations in this 
regard. Information gathered during such operations must be subsequently used for 
drafting of focused threat and risk assessments. 

Enhancing  border  control  in  line  with  the  Schengen  Border  Code  and  the 
Communication on Smart Borders 38 in order to have in place an effective system to 
detect and respond to overstays, and to detect possible activities linked to organised 
crime. 

In  line  with  the  "EU  Strategy  towards  the  Eradication  on  Trafficking  in  Human 
Beings 2012-2016"39, specific actions should be taken, especially regarding minors. 
It is important to note in this context that an anti-trafficking training guide for border 
guards will be soon issued by FRONTEX and guidelines for consular services and 
border guards for the identification of victims will be issued by the Commission in 
2012. 

By the EU, Member States and the Republic of Moldova 

• 

• 

• 

Cooperation  between  the  Moldovan  and  Member  States’  authorities  should  be 
enhanced, including information sharing with Europol. 

Cooperation  between  the  Moldovan  authorities  with  their  counterparts  in  EU 
Member  States  on  protection  and  assistance  should  be  strengthened,  including  the 
identification and referral of THB victims and their safe return.  

Assets  confiscation  procedures  must  be  agreed  with  the  Moldovan  authorities,  in 
order  to  recover  stolen  property  or  the  profit  thereof,  and  to  reduce  the  financial 

38 

39 

European  Commission's  Communication  on  Smart  Borders  -  options  and  the  way  ahead,  COM 
(2011) 680 final. 
See COM (2012) 286 final. 

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power of OCGs, thus facilitating their dismantlement.  

• 

• 

• 

Threat  assessments  and  exchange  of  information  on  serious  crime  should  be 
developed  on  a  regular  basis,  under  the  aegis  of  Europol,  and  where  appropriate 
with  support  of  Interpol  channels.  Comparative  crime  data  should  be  collected 
according to commonly defined indicators. 

Exchange  of  best  practice  and  training  of  law  enforcement  services  should  be 
strengthened.  

Strengthen cooperation with Moldovan authorities in order to tackle the illicit trade 
in high excise goods. 

5 - HORIZONTAL ISSUES  

Based  on  figures  provided  by  the  Moldovan  National  Bureau  of  Statistics  and  the 
Transnistrian  de  facto  authorities,  the  total  population  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova  was 
approximately 4.075.000 in 2011.  

5.1. Minorities  

5.1.1. Current situation 

The protection of minorities against discrimination is guaranteed by specific provisions in the 
Constitution,  and  in  criminal,  civil  and  administrative  laws.  Minorities’  rights  were  further 
strengthened following the adoption of anti-discrimination legislation on 25 May40.  

According  to  the  information  provided  by  the  Moldovan  authorities,  the  following  ethnic 
minorities live in the Republic of Moldova: 311.902 Ukrainians, 236.087 Russians, 131.811 
Gagauz, 68.928 Bulgarians and 14.202 Roma41. 

Under  the  Moldovan  Constitution,  the  Autonomous  Territorial  Unit  of  Gagauzia  enjoys 
recognition and promotion of its political, social and cultural rights, including the right for its 
population to use the Gagauz language in administrative matters. 

In addition, the Republic of Moldova has a liberal language legislation, which gives Russian 
speakers  (including,  beside  the  Russian  minority,  a  significant  part  of  the  Moldovan  ethnic 
majority  and  of  the  Ukrainian  ethnic  minority)  the  right  to  access  official  information  in 
Russian and the opportunity to receive Russian-language education. 

In that general context, minority issues are mostly confined to those of the Roma community, 
which the Moldovan government has undertaken to tackle actively, by putting in place Roma 
Community  Mediators,  with  the  help  of  UNICEF  and  the  Council  of  Europe,  and 
implementing its Action Plan on Roma Support 2011-2015, for which a specific budget has 
been earmarked in the country’s Medium-Term Budget Framework. 

40 
41 

“The Law on Ensuring Equality” was adopted in May 2012. See COM (2012) 348 final. 
According to the population census in 2004, there are 12 271 Roma (or 14 202 – data are inconsistent 
across available sources). However, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova admit that it is difficult 
to estimate the exact number, due to fact that the Roma ethnicity is often not officially declared. Roma 
community leaders mention higher figures. 

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5.1.2. Key possible impacts  

The  Moldovan  government  is  generally  considered,  including  by  the  specialised  local  civil 
society organisations, as making serious efforts to improve rapidly the record of the Republic 
of  Moldova  with  respect  to  the  treatment  of  its  ethnic  minorities,  particularly  the  Roma 
minority. The adoption of the Law on Ensuring Equality on 25 May 2012 provides additional 
guarantees in that regard. A Roadmap was adopted at the working level (to be included in the 
Human Rights Action Plan, currently under amendment) in June 2012 to guide the application 
of  the  above  mentioned  law,  and  an  Equality  Council  was  set  up  on  5  July  2012  by 
Government Decree which will be the reference point for victims of discrimination. It should 
be therefore expected that minority issues should not have a sizeable impact on the migration 
and security situation in the context of visa liberalisation. In addition, as earlier indicated (see 
above under section 4), language rather than ethnic origin lies at the basis of the constitution 
and cooperation of OCGs, including in the Republic of Moldova. 

On the basis of the above assessment, the following measures should be considered: 

By the Republic of Moldova, in line with the VLAP 

• 

• 

• 

Continue  to  implement  its  Human  Rights  Action  Plan  2011-2014  and  continue  to 
seek involvement of the international community in tackling minorities' issues. 

Ensure  effective  implementation  of  anti-discrimination  legislation,  in  line  with 
European and international standards, notably by issuing comprehensive guidelines 
and by having in place a functioning Equality Council. 

Sustain  its  financial  efforts  to  implement  the  Action  Plan  on  Roma  Support 
2011-2015 in an effective and consistent manner. 

5.2. The Transnistrian region  

5.2.1. Current Situation  

The constitutional authorities of the Republic of Moldova have de facto no control over the 
breakaway  region  of  Transnistria  ("Transnistria")  as  well  as  on  the  central  segment  of  the 
Ukrainian-Moldovan border. The de facto authorities in Tiraspol consider the Nistru river as a 
border  to  be  controlled  by  their  border  guards  and  customs  officers,  which  are  deployed  at 
locations  in  the  so-called  security  (buffer)  zone.  Chisinau  as  well  as  the  international 
community,  which  has  not  recognised  the  independence  of  "Transnistria",  considers  the 
Nistru river as an internal administrative boundary controlled by police. For fiscal purposes, 
Moldovan customs officers also operate along the internal administrative boundary line42. 

42 

Currently there are 20 checkpoints on the right-bank of the Nistru river on the 411 km-long boundary 
line.  The  main  purpose  of  these  check  points  is  to  perform  police  and  customs  controls  over  the 
movements of passengers and cargo. Controls are performed by the Customs Service and the Ministry 
of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Moldova. There are 16 international border checkpoints and 11 
police stations along the administrative line with the Transnistrian region, which are connected online to 
the  Interpol  Stolen  Lost  Travel  Documents  (SLDT)  database.  There  are  also  14  Internal  Customs 
Control Posts (ICCPs), out of which two are for rail transport and are not connected with the Interpol 
SLTD.  There  are  on-going  plans  to  deploy  joint  Moldovan-Ukrainian  border  control  points  (BCPs) 
along  the  central  segment  of  the  border  (on  Ukrainian  territory).  A  first  jointly  operated  BCP  was 
opened in Rososhany-Briceni in January 2012, in application of a Protocol between the partner services 
of the two countries.  

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The current situation poses additional obstacles to an effective and efficient  performance of 
controls.  The  authorities  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova  face  several  challenges  to  check 
foreigners  who  enter/exit  the  Republic  of  Moldova  via  "Transnistria".  In  particular,  police 
staff  at  Internal  Customs  Control  Posts  (ICCPs)  lack  records  about  foreigners  and  have 
difficulties  to  conduct  passport  checks  of  foreigners  and  to  decide  whether  they  are  eligible 
for entry into the Republic of Moldova (respect of the visa regime). Based on a cooperation 
agreement signed in July 2010 by the Police representatives from the right and left bank of the 
Nistru  river,  Chisinau  and  Tiraspol  exchange  information  regarding  wanted  persons  and 
criminal records on inhabitants resident in both banks.  

The reform of the Ministry of Interior, the creation of the Border Police as well as the entry 
into force of the Law on the State Border of the Republic of Moldova on 1 July 201243 will 
most probably have a positive impact on the current situation. The Moldovan authorities have 
designed  a  plan  to  control  migration  flows  through  the  Transnistrian  region.  Furthermore, 
customs  controls  along  the  Transnistrian  segment  of  the  Moldovan-Ukrainian  border  are 
performed  by  Ukraine  on  behalf  of,  and  in  connection  with,  the  Republic  of  Moldova,  in 
application  of  the  Joint  Customs  Regime  agreement  of  2005  between  the  two  countries 
(implemented with the help of EUBAM).  

Since  January  2012  the  cooperation  in  customs  matters  has  started  to  be  extended  to  other 
border  controls.  A  pilot  "jointly  operated  border  control  point"  was  set  up  in  Rososhany-
Briceni,  in  the  North  of  the  Republic  of  Moldova.  This  experiment  is  being  deployed 
gradually to other BCPs on the common border, with a view to allowing joint border control 
on its Transnistrian segment by mixed Moldovan-Ukrainian border guard (border police) and 
customs teams. 

In  addition,  EUBAM  is  assisting  the  Moldovan  authorities  in  enhancing  the  use  of  Mobile 
Units by giving more emphasis to risk analysis and intelligence-led activities. The Moldovan 
authorities have expressed their readiness to implement the EUBAM recommendations and, 
since  1  July  2012,  have  set  up  a  Border  Police  service  with  a  view  to  performing  border 
controls on the internal administrative boundary along the Nistru river.  

As regards document security, according to the latest information provided by the Moldovan 
authorities, 229.489 citizens of the Republic of Moldova residing in the Transnistrian region 
have been issued Moldovan passports, out of which 175.764 passports are still valid (i.e. not 
expired).  During  the  first  three  months  of  2012  the  authorities  in  Chisinau  issued  2.722 
biometric passports to Moldovan citizens residing in the Transnistrian region. The Ministry of 
Information Technology and Communication, in cooperation with the Ministry of Justice and 
the Ministry of Interior, has developed a comprehensive legal framework for the procedures 
for identification, at first documentation, of persons from the Transnistrian region, based on 
additional  information  on  family  members  and  relatives  (breeder  documents  of  parents, 
marriage certificates and others)44. 

In  addition,  the  bilateral  confidence-building  working  group  on  civil  status  has  been 
reactivated  since  the  election  of  "President"  Shevchuk  in  "Transnistria"  in  December  2011, 
with a view to easing in future exchange of information. At present, the national registration 
authority is applying special measures to confirm citizenship and provide access to national 
identity cards free of charge for inhabitants of the Transnistrian region, in accordance with the 
amended Law on Citizenship of 2 June 2000 and Government Decision of 9 September 2005 

43 
44 

See COM (2012) 348 final. 
See COM (2012) 348 final. 

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on  safety  measures  relating  to  confirmation  of  citizenship  and  the  documentation  of  the 
population  from  the  districts  in  the  Transnistrian  region45.  Besides,  cooperation  on  criminal 
matters between Chisinau and Tiraspol was and remains active. 

5.2.2. Key possible impacts  

The  Moldovan  Government  continued  to  address  the  situation  in  the  Transnistrian  region 
actively. Cooperation in matters related to visa liberalisation – including human rights issues 
– were identified by Chisinau and Tiraspol as priorities for confidence-building measures and 
activities, which was reflected accordingly in the work programme of the "5+2" negotiating 
format on the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.  

Pending  concrete  results  from  this  increased  cooperation,  the  intermediary  measures  put  in 
place  by  Chisinau,  sometimes  with  Ukraine’s  cooperation,  will  continue  to  offer  a  clearly 
defined framework for ensuring document and border security. 

On the basis of the above assessment, the following measures should be considered: 

By the Republic of Moldova  

• 

• 

• 

• 

Enhance cooperation with neighbouring countries, in particular Ukraine; 

Continue 
to  sustain  cooperation  with  EUBAM  and 
recommendations on improving and intensifying the use of mobile units46; 

implement  EUBAM 

Continue  the  good  cooperation  with  de  facto  authorities  in  Tiraspol,  which  would 
allow  information  exchange  on  the  issuance  of  documents  as  well  as  on  law 
enforcement aspects; 

Increase  efforts  to  overcome  possible  security  and  migration  challenges  and  find 
possible  solutions  for  enhancing  the  control  without  prejudice  to  the  "5+2" 
negotiating process. 

45 
46 

See COM (2012) 348 final. 
EUBAM White Paper of 6 August 2010, which includes a number of proposals based on risk analysis, 
intelligence  led  activities  of  mobile  units  (inland  controls)  and  cooperation  mechanism  between  the 
relevant law enforcement structures from Chisinau and Tiraspol.  

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