COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL Assessment of budgetary implementation in the context of the ongoing Excessive Deficit Procedures after the Commission Services' 2011 Autumn Forecast
Date: 2012-01-11
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: Belgium, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, budget deficit, budget policy, public debt, stability pact

EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 11.1.2012 
COM(2012) 4 final 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL 

Assessment of budgetary implementation in the context of the ongoing Excessive Deficit 
Procedures after the Commission Services' 2011 Autumn Forecast 

{SEC(2012) 49 final} 
{SEC(2012) 50 final} 
{SEC(2012) 51 final} 
{SEC(2012) 52 final} 
{SEC(2012) 53 final} 

 
 
 
 
  
 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL 

Assessment of budgetary implementation in the context of the ongoing Excessive Deficit 
Procedures after the Commission Services' 2011 Autumn Forecast 

1. 

OVERVIEW 

The importance of sound public finances as a precondition for sustained economic growth and 
job creation has been underlined since the beginning of the post-2007 financial and economic 
crisis. Insufficiently prudent fiscal policies combined with wider macroeconomic imbalances 
made several Members States vulnerable to the financial market turbulence experienced since 
2008.  The  EU  coordination  and  surveillance  mechanisms  in  place  were  not  strong  and 
comprehensive  enough  to  prevent  individual  Members  States  from  drifting  into  vulnerable 
positions and affecting other countries.  

In  response  to  this  shortcoming,  the  Commission  proposed  in  September  2010  a 
comprehensive  legislative  package  to  strengthen  fiscal  surveillance  and  to  expand  policy 
surveillance to cover macroeconomic imbalances. The legislative package, the so-called "Six 
Pack", was finally approved by the Council and the European Parliament in November 2011 
and  entered  into  force  on  13  December  2011.  The  package  represents  an  important 
reinforcement of the tools of economic and fiscal surveillance.  

As a central part of this package, the Stability and Growth Pact has been strengthened, both in 
its preventive and in its corrective arm, the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). In the current 
situation, where 23 Members States are in the EDP, the new stipulations of the corrective arm 
are  of  particular  importance.  For  euro-area  Member  States,  financial  sanctions  are  now 
applied as a rule in case national authorities do not take effective action to comply with the 
recommendations  addressed  to  them  by  the  Council  under  Article  126(7)  of  the  Treaty.  In 
particular, Regulation (EU) No 1173/2011 of 16 November 2011 on the effective enforcement 
of  budgetary  surveillance  in  the  euro  area1  requires  the  Commission  to  recommend  to  the 
Council to impose a fine on a euro-area Member State that has failed to take effective action 
to correct an excessive deficit in accordance with Article 126(8) of the Treaty. This new rule 
applies  to  any  euro-area  Member  State  to  which  a  Council  decision  under  Article 126(8)  of 
the Treaty is addressed after the entry into force of the Six Pack.  

A strict application of the reinforced rules on fiscal discipline is decisive for the credibility of 
the  euro  as  a  stable  and  strong  currency  and  an  indispensable  part  of  the  resolution  of  the 
sovereign debt crisis. The Commission has indicated early on that it will apply the new tools 
provided  by  the  legislative  package  rigorously  from  the  beginning.  A  comprehensive 
assessment of the budgetary implementation in the context of the ongoing EDPs was carried 
out  on  the  basis  of  the  Commission  services’  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  published  on  10 
November 2011. Of the 23 Member States currently in EDP, five are or were benefiting from 
a  financial  assistance  programme2.  While  the  budgetary  developments  in  programme 

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2 

OJ L 306, 23.11.2011, p. 5. 
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Latvia. The Balance of Payment (BoP) programme for Latvia 
expires on 20 January 2012. 

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countries are to be reviewed against the provisions of the respective programme documents, 
the  Commission  services'  assessment  of  state  of  implementation  of  the  respective  Council 
recommendations under Article 126(7) by the 18 non-programme Member States showed that 
in a majority of countries policies pointed to good progress towards a timely and sustainable 
correction of the excessive government deficit.  

At  the  same  time  however,  the  assessment  also  showed  that  a  timely  and  sustainable 
correction  was  clearly  at  risk  in  some  Member  States,  specifically,  in  Belgium,  Cyprus, 
Hungary,  Malta  and  Poland,  where  the  deadline  for  correcting  the  excessive  deficit  was 
imminent  or  close,  that  is  2011  or  2012.  Importantly,  in  four  out  of  these  five  countries  - 
Hungary, Poland, Belgium and Cyprus - the fiscal effort as adopted until the cut-off date of 
the Commission services' 2011 Autumn Forecast (24 October 2011) was assessed to fall short 
of the effort recommended by the Council, unless further measures were taken. In the case of 
Malta and Hungary, where the deadline for correcting the excessive government deficit was 
2011,  it  was  found  that  unless  further  measures  were  taken  to  keep  the  government  deficit 
below  3%  of  GDP  over  the  forecast  period  the  general  government  deficit  would  not  be 
corrected in a sustainable manner, as requested by the Council. 

In view of this assessment and the imminent entry into force of the Six Pack, Vice-President 
Olli  Rehn,  responsible  for  economic  and  monetary  affairs  and  the  Euro,  on  11  November 
2011  addressed  letters  to  the  Member  States  concerned.  These  Member  States  were  called 
upon to treat as a matter of urgency the adoption of a 2012 budget and/or additional measures 
that  ensure  a  timely  and  sustainable  correction  of  the  excessive  deficit.  In  the  absence  of 
adopted corrective measures, further steps under the EDP, with the possibility of prompting 
sanctions, would become unavoidable.  

The  call  for  additional  measures  also  echoed  the  Council  conclusions  on  fiscal  policies  of 
4 October 2011, which called on Member States to fully implement their commitments under 
the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact,  specifying  that  countries  with  significant  adjustment  gaps 
under  the  EDP  should  close  these  gaps  with  specific  measures  at  the  latest  in  their  2012 
budgets.  

Since mid-November all five Member States with a deadline for correction in 2011 and 2012, 
and  where  according  to  the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn  Forecast  the  timely  and 
sustainable correction of the excessive deficit was considered to be at risk, have adopted and 
announced  measures.  In  most  cases,  these  additional  measures  are  considered  sufficient  to 
bring  the  correction  of  the  excessive  deficit  back  on  track,  in  line  with  the  Council’s 
recommendations.  This  is  the  case  in  Belgium,  Cyprus,  Malta  and  Poland.  However,  while 
additional efforts have been made also in Hungary, the Commission's assessment shows that 
these  efforts  are  still  not  sufficient  to  ensure  adequate  progress  towards  a  sustainable 
correction of the excessive deficit.  

This communication outlines the key elements of the Commission's assessment. In particular, 
on  the  basis  of  the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn  Forecast  and  taking  into  account 
subsequent budgetary initiatives adopted by these five Member States until 9 January 2012, it 
presents the Commission’s latest view on the budgetary implementation in the context of the 
EDP in these Member States. A more detailed and comprehensive assessment can be found in 
the  five  country-specific  Commission  Staff  Working  Papers  published  together  with  this 
communication. 

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In light of its assessment, the Commission recommends to the Council to step up the EDP for 
Hungary.  To  that  end,  the  Commission,  in  parallel  to  this  Communication,  adopts  a 
recommendation for a Council decision under Article 126(8) of the Treaty establishing that no 
effective  action  has  been  taken  in  response  to  the  Council  recommendation  under  Article 
126(7)  of  the  Treaty  with  a  view  to  bringing  an  end  to  the  situation  of  an  excessive 
government deficit.  

At  a  later  stage,  subject  to  the  Council  decision  that  no  effective  action  has  been  taken,  the 
Commission will, in line with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), adopt 
for Hungary – a Member State whose currency is not the euro – a recommendation for a new 
Council recommendation under Article 126(7) of the Treaty with a view to bringing an end to 
the situation of an excessive government deficit. This recommendation will be adopted by the 
Council within two months of the Council decision establishing that no effective action has 
been  taken.  Following  the  Council  decision  that  no  effective  action  has  been  taken,  the 
Commission may in line with the provisions of Council Regulation (EC) No 1084/2006, also 
consider issuing a proposal to the Council on the suspension of Cohesion fund commitments 
to Hungary. 

The Commission services' 2011 Autumn Forecast also showed budgetary adjustment gaps for 
some  Member  States  where  the  deadline  for  correcting  the  excessive  government  deficit  is 
2013. For these Member States, it is a matter of urgency to address these gaps in particular 
when  preparing  their  budgetary  plans  to  be  submitted  in  the  context  of  the  2012  European 
Semester in the updated Stability or Convergence Programmes. 

The Commission will continue to monitor the budgetary implementation in all Member States 
currently in the EDP, including the five countries concerned by the current Communication. 
The next comprehensive assessment will be made in the context of the Commission services' 
2012 Spring Forecast.  

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2. 

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC ASSESSMENTS 

2.1. 

Belgium 

In its recommendations issued in accordance with Article 126(7) of the Treaty on 2 December 
2009, the Council recommended Belgium to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP in a credible 
and sustainable manner by 2012 and to ensure an average annual fiscal effort of ¾% of GDP 
in  2010-2012.  According  to  the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  general 
government  deficit  was  expected  at  3.6%  of  GDP  in  2011  and,  assuming  that  no  further 
measures  were  taken,  at  4.6%  of  GDP  in  2012  and  4.5%  of  GDP  in  2013.  The  estimated 
average  annual  change  in  the  structural  balance  in  2010-2012  of  -0.1%  was  well  below  the 
fiscal  effort  recommended  by  the  Council.  Hence,  the  projected  path  of  the  general 
government budget deficit combined with the estimated fiscal effort was not consistent with a 
timely and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit.  

After  the  cut-off  date  of  the  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  Belgian  government  reached  an 
agreement  on  its  2012  budget  proposal,  which  was  formally  submitted  to  Parliament  on 
21 December  2011.  Based  on  the  Commission's  assessment  of  the  measures  publically 
announced  by  the  Belgian  authorities  by  9  January  2012,  the  general  government  deficit  is 
projected at 2.9% of GDP in 2012 and 2¾% of GDP in 2013 (see Table 1). As a result, after 
taking into account all measures up to 9 January 2012, it appears that Belgian authorities have 
taken effective action towards a timely and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit. A 
more  detailed  assessment  can  be  found  in  the  Commission  Staff  Working  Document  on 
Belgium published together with this Communication. 

In  view  of  the  above  assessment,  the  Commission  considers  that  no  further  steps  in  the 
excessive deficit procedure of Belgium are needed at present. The Commission will continue 
to closely monitor budgetary developments in Belgium in accordance with the Treaty and the 
SGP.  

Table 1: Belgium - comparison of budgetary projections,  
general government balance (% of GDP) 

2011 
-3.6 
-3.6 
-4.1** 

2012 
-4.6 
-2.8 
-2.9  

COM AF 2011  
National authorities 
COM Jan 2012 
Notes: COM AF 2011 – Commission services 2011 Autumn Forecast. COM Jan 2012 
– Commission services’ assessment of January 2012. Projections by the national 
authorities (of 21 December 2011) and the Commission services' assessment of 
January 2012 take into account the measures announced by the government in the 
2012 draft budget. 

2013 
-4.5 
-1.8* 
-2¾ 

* According to the April 2011 update of the Stability Programme, the objective for 2013 
was -1.8% of GDP; so far, there is no objective for 2013 in the 2012 draft budget. 

** Revised after taking into account new information on lower-than-expected revenues 
and additional costs related to the Dexia rescue. 

Sources: Commission services, national projections 

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2.2. 

Cyprus 

In  its  recommendations  issued  in  accordance  with  Article  126(7)  of  the  Treaty  on  13  July 
2010, the Council recommended Cyprus to bring the government deficit below 3% of GDP in 
a  credible  and  sustainable  manner  by  2012  and  to  ensure  an  average  annual  fiscal  effort  in 
2011-2012  of  at  least  1½%  of  GDP.  According  to  the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn 
Forecast, the general government deficit was expected at 6.7% of GDP in 2011 and at 4.9% of 
GDP in 2012, and, assuming that no further measures were taken, at 4.7% of GDP in 2013. 
Moreover,  the  estimated  average  annual  change  in  the  structural  balance  in  2011-2012  of 
0.7%  of  GDP  was  well  below  the  fiscal  effort  recommended  by  the  Council.  Hence,  the 
projected  path  of  the  general  government  budget  deficit  in  combination  with  the  estimated 
fiscal  effort  was  not  consistent  with  a  timely  and  sustainable  correction  of  the  excessive 
deficit.  

After the cut-off date of the 2011 Autumn Forecast, the Cypriot Parliament on 16 December 
2011  adopted  the  2012  Budget  Law  and  an  additional  consolidation  package.  Based  on  its 
assessment of the 2012 budget and the accompanying measures, the Commission foresees the 
general government deficit to decline to 2.7% of GDP in 2012 and 1.8% of GDP in 2013 (see 
Table 2). A more detailed assessment can be found in the Commission Staff Working Paper 
on Cyprus published together with this communication. 

On the basis of currently available information, it appears that Cypriot authorities have taken 
effective  action  towards  a  timely  and  sustainable  correction  of  the  excessive  deficit.  In 
particular,  the  Cypriot  authorities  defined  an  expenditure-driven  consolidation  strategy  and 
adopted  a  2012  budget  based  on  cautious  macroeconomic  assumptions  and  took  supporting 
measures  to  reduce  the  deficit.  In  view  of  the  above  assessment,  the  Commission  considers 
that no further steps in the excessive deficit procedure of Cyprus are needed at present. The 
Commission  will  continue  to  closely  monitor  budgetary  developments  in  Cyprus  in 
accordance with the Treaty and the SGP.  

Table 2: Cyprus - comparison of budgetary projections,  
general government balance (% of GDP) 

2011 
-6.7 

2012 
-4.9 
> -2.5 
-2.7 

2013 
-4.7 
> -1.0 
-1.8 

COM AF 2011  
National authorities 
COM Jan 2012 
Notes: COM AF 2011 – Commission services 2011 Autumn Forecast. COM Jan 2012 
– Commission services’ assessment of January 2012. Projections by the national 
authorities (of December 2011) and the Commission services' assessment of January 
2012 take into account the measures adopted by the government in the 2012 Budget 
draft and in an additional consolidation package adopted by the government in 
December 2011.  

Sources: Commission services, national projections 

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2.3. 

Hungary 

In its recommendations issued on 7 July 2009 in accordance with Article 104(7) of the Treaty 
establishing the European Communities (TEC)3, the Council recommended Hungary to bring 
the deficit below 3% of GDP in a credible and sustainable manner by 2011 and to ensure a 
cumulative fiscal effort of at least 0.5% of GDP in 2010-2011. According to the Commission 
services' 2011 Autumn Forecast, Hungary was expected to reach a surplus of 3.6% of GDP in 
2011 thanks to temporary measures, and, assuming that no additional consolidation steps were 
taken, to record a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2012, again including measures of a temporary 
nature,  and  of  3.7%  of  GDP  in  2013.  Since  temporary  measures  do  not  improve  the 
underlying budgetary position, a substantial deterioration of the structural budget balance of 
2¾%  of  GDP  in  cumulative  terms  was  estimated  in  2010-2011,  as  opposed  to  the 
improvement  recommended  by  the  Council.  As  a  result,  the  projected  path  of  the  general 
government budget deficit in combination with the estimated fiscal effort was not consistent 
with a sustainable correction of the excessive deficit.  

After  the  cut-off  date  of  the  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  approved  2012  budget  included 
additional expenditure and revenue measures compared to the draft proposal. Moreover, the 
Hungarian  authorities  further  specified  their  structural  reform  programme  and  adopted 
additional consolidation measures on 15 December 2011. On the same day an agreement was 
concluded  between  the  government  and  the  banking  sector  on  how  to  share  the  burden 
stemming from the support schemes for distressed mortgage borrowers.  

Based  on  the  Commission's  assessment  of  these  measures  on  top  of  the  2011  Autumn 
Forecast,  the  general  government  deficit  is  projected  at  2¾%  of  GDP  in  2012  and  3¼%  of 
GDP in 2013 (see Table 3), even without taking into account the possible negative effects of a 
worsening in the macroeconomic scenario and the elevated level of yields. As a result, after 
taking into account all measures publically announced by the Hungarian authorities by the end 
of  2011,  adequate  progress  towards  a  timely  and  sustainable  correction  of  the  excessive 
deficit is not yet ensured.  

Against this background, the Commission adopted a recommendation for a Council decision 
establishing  inadequate  action  taken  under  Article  126(8)  of  the  Treaty.  A  more  detailed 
assessment can be found in the Commission Staff Working Document on Hungary published 
together with this Communication. 

3 

The corresponding Article in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which entered into 
force on 1 December 2009, is Article 126. 

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Table 3: Hungary - comparison of budgetary projections,  
general government balance (% of GDP) 

2011 
3.6 
3.9 
3.5 

2012 
-2.8 
-2.5 
-2¾ 

COM AF 2011  
National authorities 
COM Jan 2012 
Notes: COM AF 2011 – Commission services 2011 Autumn Forecast. COM Jan 
2012 – Commission services’ assessment of January 2012. Projections by the 
national authorities (of 30 September 2011 and confirmed to the Commission on 
15 December 2011) and the Commission services' assessment of January 2012 
take into account the measures contained in the 2012 Budget draft and a further 
consolidation package of 15 December 2011.  

2013 
-3.7 
-2.2 
-3¼ 

Sources: Commission services, national projections 

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2.4.  Malta 

In its recommendations issued in accordance with Article 126(7) of the Treaty on 16 February 
2010, the Council recommended Malta to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP in a credible and 
sustainable manner by 2011 and to ensure a fiscal effort of ¾% of GDP in 2011. According to 
the Commission services' 2011 Autumn Forecast, which was released on 10 November 2011, 
the  general  government  deficit  was  estimated  at  3%  of  GDP  in  2011  and,  assuming  that  no 
further measures were taken, the deficit was projected to widen to 3.5% of GDP in 2012 and 
further to 3.6% of GDP in 2013. While the estimated change in the structural balance in 2011 
was  in  line  with  the  fiscal  effort  recommended  by  the  Council,  the  projected  path  of  the 
general  government  budget  deficit  was  not  consistent  with  a  sustainable  correction  of  the 
excessive deficit.  

After the cut-off date of the 2011 Autumn Forecast, the Maltese government adopted its 2012 
budget draft on 14 November 2011. Based on the Commission's assessment of the budget, the 
general government deficit projections are updated to 2.6% of GDP in 2012 and 2.9% of GDP 
in  2013  (see  Table  4).  A  more  detailed  assessment  can  be  found  in  the  Commission  Staff 
Working Document on Malta published together with this Communication. 

On  the  basis  of  currently  available  information,  it  appears  that  the  Maltese  authorities  have 
taken effective action towards a timely and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit. In 
particular,  the  Maltese  authorities  adopted  a  2012  budget  including  a  series  of  measures  to 
contain the deficit. In view of the above assessment, the Commission considers that no further 
steps in the excessive deficit procedure of Malta are needed at present. The Commission will 
continue to closely monitor budgetary developments in Malta in accordance with the Treaty 
and the SGP. 

Table 4: Malta - comparison of budgetary projections,  
general government balance (% of GDP) 

2011 
-3.0 
-2.8 
-3.0 

COM AF 2011 
National authorities 
COM Jan 2012 
Notes: COM AF 2011 – Commission services 2011 Autumn Forecast. COM Jan 2012 
– Commission services’ assessment of January 2012. National projections are based 
on information provided by national authorities complementing the 2012 budget 
speech. National projections and Commission services' assessment of January 2012 
take into account the measures in the 2012 draft budget. 

2012 
-3.5 
-2.3 
-2.6 

2013 
-3.6 
-1.8 
-2.9 

Sources: Commission services, national projections 

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2.5. 

Poland 

In its recommendations issued in accordance with Article 104(7) of the Treaty establishing the 
European Communities (TEC)4 on 6 July 2009, the Council recommended Poland to bring the 
deficit  below  3%  of  GDP  in  a  credible  and  sustainable  manner  by  2012  and  to  ensure  an 
average annual fiscal effort over the period 2010-2012 of at least 1¼% of GDP. According to 
the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  general  government  deficit  was 
expected at 5.6% of GDP in 2011 and at 4.0% of GDP in 2012, and, assuming that no further 
measures were taken, at 3.1% of GDP in 2013. Moreover, taking into account the change in 
the  macroeconomic  scenario  between  the  projections  underlying  the  EDP  recommendations 
(i.e.  Commission  Services'  2009  Spring  Forecast)  and  the  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  in 
particular,  the  fact  that  Poland  had  benefited  from  upward  revision  of  medium-term  growth 
prospects, the estimated average annual change in the structural budget balance in 2010-2012 
fell short of the adjustment recommended by the Council. As a result, the projected path of 
the general government budget deficit and the estimated fiscal effort would, at that stage, not 
have been consistent with a timely and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit.  

After  the  cut-off  date  of  the  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  new  Polish  government  adopted  a 
revised 2012 Budget Law on 8 December 2011. Based on the Commission's assessment of the 
revised  budget  on  top  of  the  2011  Autumn  Forecast,  the  general  government  deficit  is 
projected at 3.3% of GDP in 2012 and 2.6% of GDP in 2013 (see Table 5). A more detailed 
assessment  can  be  found  in  the  Commission  Staff  Working  Document  on  Poland  published 
together with this Communication. 

In the case of Poland, the assessment in the context of the EDP needs to take into account the 
provisions  of  the  Six  Pack  pertaining  to  the  budgetary  impact  of  systemic  pension  reforms. 
Notably, in case the excess of the deficit over the reference value of 3% of GDP includes the 
effects of such a pension reform, the full net direct cost of the reform to the public budget will 
be  taken  into  account  provided  (i)  the  deficit  declines  substantially  and  continuously  and 
comes close to the 3% of GDP reference value, (ii) the gross government debt ratio does not 
exceed 60% of GDP and (iii) overall fiscal sustainability is maintained.  

The  deficit  of  3.3%  of  GDP  expected  by  the  Commission  services  taking  into  account 
measures announced/adopted after the 2011 Autumn Forecast can be considered to be close to 
the reference value" and the debt-to-GDP ratio is below the 60% of GDP reference value in a 
sustained  manner.  This,  according  to  the  Council  Regulation  (EU)  No.  1177/20115,  allows 
taking  into  account  the  cost  of  a  systemic  pension  reform.  The  debt  ratio  would  be  fairly 
stable and reach 56% of GDP by 2020 under the assumption of no further policy changes on 
top  of  the  Commission  services'  2011  Autumn  Forecast.  The  Polish  authorities  estimate  the 
direct net cost of such pension reform at around 0.6% of GDP in 2012. 

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The corresponding article in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which entered into 
force on 1 December 2009, is Article 126. 
See  Article  1(2c).  The  regulation  has  amended  the  modalities  according  to  which  budgetary  costs 
related  to  the  introduction  of  a  mandatory,  fully-funded  pillar  in  the  national  pension  system  can  be 
taken into account when assessing adequate progress towards a timely and sustainable correction of an 
excessive  deficit.  In  the  case  of  Member  States  in  the  EDP  where  the  excess  of  the  deficit  over  the 
reference value of 3% includes the effects of such a pension reform, the full net direct cost of the reform 
to  the  public  budget  will  be  taken  into  account  provided  (i)  the  deficit  declines  substantially  and 
continuously and comes close to the 3% of GDP reference value, (ii) the gross government debt ratio 
does not exceed 60% of GDP and (iii) overall fiscal sustainability is maintained. 

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On  the  basis  of  currently  available  information,  it  appears  that  the  Polish  authorities  have 
taken effective action towards a timely and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit. In 
view  of  the  above  assessment  (including  also  the  direct  net  costs  of  the  systemic  pension 
reform introduced in 1999), the Commission considers that no further steps in the excessive 
deficit procedure of Poland are needed at present. The Commission will continue to closely 
monitor budgetary developments in Poland in accordance with the Treaty and the SGP.  

Table 5: Poland - comparison of budgetary projections,  
general government balance (% of GDP) 

2011 
-5.6 
-5.6 
n.a. 
-5.6 

COM AF 2011  
CP 2011 
Draft 2012 Budget Law 
COM Jan 2012 
Notes: COM AF 2011 – Commission services 2011 Autumn Forecast. CP 2011 – April 
2011 update of the Convergence Programme. COM Jan 2012 – Commission services’ 
assessment of January 2012. The Commission services' assessment of January 2012 
takes into account the measures adopted by the government in the draft 2012 Budget 
Law.  

2012 
-4.0 
-2.9 
-2.9* 
-3.3 

2013 
-3.1 
-2.5 
n.a. 
-2.6 

* The budget balance presented in the draft 2012 Budget Law is calculated according to 
the national method based on cash accounting, which is not directly comparable with the 
ESA95 accrual accounting method. 

Sources: Commission services, national projections 

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