COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Date: 2011-04-04
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: aerospace industry, satellite communications, satellite navigation, space policy, space research, space technology, use of outer space

EN 

EN 

   EN 

 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 4.4.2011 
SEC(2011) 381 final 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT 

Accompanying document to the 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE 
COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

TOWARDS A SPACE STRATEGY FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION THAT BENEFITS ITS 
CITIZENS 

SEC(2011) 380 final 
COM(2011) 152 final 

EN 

   EN 

 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This IA will accompany a communication on the future involvement of the EU in space. The 
Communication does not amount to a formal proposal. Any such proposal would have to be 
accompanied  by  another  impact  assessment  that  would  analyse  the  financial  impact  in  a 
detailed manner. 

While Galileo and GMES remain the first priorities of the EU in space, the present 
IA  focuses  on  the  other  priority  areas  identified  by  the  2008  Space  Council 
Resolution1 on taking forward the European Space Policy. 

The  political  context  of  the  communication  is  framed  by  article  189  of  the  TFEU  which 
introduces a clear competence for the EU to act in space matters. 

2. 

PROBLEM DEFINITION 

2.1. 

Security of critical European space infrastructures is not ensured 

The EU does not at present have full and accurate information on satellites and debris orbiting 
the Earth, on the space environment (e.g. radiation bursts) and possible threats coming from 
space  (near  Earth  objects).  This  lack  of  information  constitutes  a  major  risk  to  space 
infrastructure.  

2.2. 

Europe lacks a long-term strategy and critical mass for space exploration 

Space  exploration  gives  nations  involved  in  it  a  high  political  profile  in  the  international 
arena. It is also a driver for technological innovation whose spin-offs have enhanced citizens’ 
lives to a scale that is not often realised by the general public. 

Space exploration requires a political thrust, a vision and a strategy to carry it through which 
Europe  lacks  at  present.  Space  exploration  activities  are  also  fragmented  and  isolated  from 
non-space  sectors.  This  is  detrimental  to  Europe  from  an  international  standpoint,  does  not 
allow space exploration potential for innovation and competitiveness to materialise and could 
have negative effect on science and education2. 

2.3. 

Space policies and investments are decided at national/intergovernmental level 

The  space  sector  is  largely  driven  by  national  public  funding  spent  either  directly  or  via  a 
contribution to ESA3. As a consequence: 

–  Space initiatives only indirectly respond to broader European policy objectives; 

1 
2 

3 

5th Space Council Resolution, “Taking forward the European Space Policy”, 26 September 2008. 
Conclusions  of  the  workshops  “Space  exploration  and  innovation,  industrial  competitiveness  and 
technology advance” and “Science and education within space exploration”, 
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/space/esp/conferences_space_en.htm. 
The big European space powers (FR, DE, IT) contribute about half of their national space budgets to 
ESA, most other countries consider ESA as their space agency and contribute most or all the national 
space budget to ESA. 

EN 

2 

   EN 

                                                 
 
–  National  space  policies'  target  is  national  industry,  which  may  be  detrimental  to  the 

competitive development of the European space industry; 

–  There  is  a  risk  of  overlaps,  fragmentation  and  discontinuity  of  the  activities  in  the 

European space sector. 

2.4. 

National  investments  for  dedicated  space  programmes  cannot  sufficiently 
address the needs of EU policies and interventions 

There is wide recognition  that future  space developments in areas such as security or space 
exploration and the exploitation of space infrastructures and space-based applications require 
a coordinated funding approach. 

Due to the fragmentation of national decision making channels, space governance frameworks 
and lack of coordination of funding mechanisms, investment in essential space activities such 
as SSA4 or space exploration cannot acquire the necessary critical mass. 

3. 

ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDIARITY 

The present initiative does not seek to replace but rather complement action taken by Member 
States  individually  or  in  the  framework  of  ESA  and  reinforce  coordination  where  it  is 
necessary to achieve common objectives. 

4. 

OBJECTIVES 

General Objectives 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

to promote scientific and technical progress; 

(1) 

to  promote 
competitiveness; 

innovation 

and 

industrial 

to  ensure  citizens’  well  being  derived  from 
space-based applications 

to  enhance  the  EU  profile  in  space  at  world 
level. 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

Specific Objectives 

Ensure the long-term availability and security 
of  European 
infrastructures  and 
services; 

space 

Ensure that the EU is in a position to fulfil the 
coordination  role  in  exploration  that  article 
189 of the Treaty calls for and to capitalise on 
the  space  exploration  potential  to  contribute 
to the objectives of the EU 2020 strategy; 

Ensure  the  conditions  necessary  to  guarantee 
European  access 
to  space  and  on-orbit 
infrastructures; 

Ensure  convergence  of  national  and  EU 
policies  and  investment  in  the  field  of  SSA 
and space exploration as well as convergence 
between  action  in  these  two  areas  and  other 
EU policies; 

(5) 

Ensure a leading and strategic role for the EU 

4 

Space  Situational  Awareness  (SSA)  is  the  comprehensive  knowledge,  understanding  and  maintained 
awareness of the population of space objects (spacecraft such as satellites or space debris), of the space 
environment, and of the existing threats/risks to space operations. SSA systems rely on ground or space 
based tracking and monitoring sensors. 

EN 

3 

   EN 

 
                                                 
in  space  at  global  level  and  in  particular  in 
international  negotiations  related  to  SSA  and 
space exploration. 

5. 

POLICY OPTIONS 

5.1. 

Option 1: Baseline 

The EU would not invest in security of critical European space infrastructures nor engage in 
space exploration efforts. This would not affect the implementation of the other EU flagships 
in space, Galileo and GMES, but their long-term security and sustainability could be affected. 
The situation described under problem definition is likely to remain. 

5.2. 

Option 2: Security in space dimension  

This  option  proposes  a  European  Space  Situational  Awareness  System  designed  to  protect 
critical  European  space  infrastructures  from  the  risk  of  collision  between  spacecraft  or  with 
space  debris,  near-earth  objects5  and  space  weather.  The  option  covers  the  federation  of 
existing capabilities and acquisition of components necessary to complete the system as well 
as the maintenance and operation of SSA ground and space systems. 

International  cooperation,  particularly  with  the  US,  would  be  an  important  element  in  the 
implementation of this option. 

First indicative estimates for a fully deployed European system as from 2014 are assessed at 
€130 million per year (in 2009 prices). 

5.3. 

Option 3: Option 2 plus limited involvement in space exploration  

The EU would extend the space exploration activities and coordination in Europe, jointly with 
the Member States and ESA. This scenario has two main components: 

–  Participation in the ISS6 

This  would  allow  enhanced  EU  presence  in  the  ISS  through  an  EU  astronaut  corps  based 
upon the existing ESA corps and increased possibilities for missions, gradually placed under 
direct European control and ultimately leading to a European crew transportation system. This 

5 

6 

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), comets and asteroids whose orbits bring them close to the Earth, are a rare 
but dramatic danger for Earth. 
The International Space Station (ISS) is a permanently inhabited space station orbiting the Earth at 400 
km altitude for peaceful purposes. Its design, development, operation and utilisation are based on the 
Inter Governmental Agreement signed in 1998 between 15 International Partners. The ISS is managed 
by ESA (Europe), NASA (USA), Roscosmos (Russia), CSA (Canada) and JAXA (Japan).  

EN 

4 

   EN 

 
                                                 
option  includes  testing  for  sustainable  human  presence  in  space  beyond  LEO7.  The  cost 
estimate is in the order of €300 million per year. 

–  Launch infrastructures 

The EU would contribute towards the adaptation of launch infrastructure to accommodate the 
evolution of the Ariane-5 launcher and towards adaptation and operational maintenance of the 
European Spaceport (Guyana Space Centre). The average EU contribution is estimated in the 
order of €100 million per year. 

Both components will be implemented through ESA. 

5.4. 

Option 4: Option 3 plus substantial investment in space exploration 

This  option  adds  to  option  3  the  development  of  human  access  to  space  and  robotic 
exploration to Mars. 

–  Human access to space 

Under this option the European cargo transfer vehicle (ATV) would be enhanced to be able to 
return payloads safely to Earth (i.e. Advanced Re-entry Vehicle, ARV) for better utilisation of 
the ISS and providing a bartering capacity8. In a second step the ARV would be improved and 
upgraded to transport crew to and back from LEO (ARV-Crew). The financial intervention of 
the EU would be around €800 million per year for 2014-2020. 

–  Mars sample return mission 

The  EU  will  contribute  towards  a  first  Mars  sample  return  mission  to  be  launched  by  the 
middle of the next decade. An annual average EU contribution of about €100 million per year 
would be needed in the period 2014-2020. This funding could cover the technical facility to 
which the samples would be returned. 

The  implementation  of  EU  space  exploration  activities  would  be  delegated  to  ESA. 
International cooperation would be essential for both options 3 and 4. 

6. 

ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS 

6.1. 

Option 1: Baseline scenario 

Under this scenario the EU would not fund neither SSA nor space exploration. The 
problems  connected  to  the  absence  of  an  SSA  system  and  the  lack  of  EU 
involvement in space exploration will persist. 

7 
8 

Low Earth Orbit (LEO), generally considered to be an orbit at an altitude of 400 to 1000 km. 
The  ISS  partnership  is  based  on  a  non-exchange  of  funds;  any  contribution  to  the  ISS  is  in-kind, 
providing exchange possibilities for flight opportunities, hardware and services.  

EN 

5 

   EN 

                                                 
6.2. 

Option 2 

6.2.1.  Economic Impact 

The  results  from  this  intervention  will  reduce  the  risk  of  economic  loss  due  to  damage 
(including  total  destruction)  of  spacecraft  and  lead  to  improved  space  security  including 
security  for  human  crew  in  space  and  citizens  on  Earth.  The  intervention  regarding  space 
weather could lead to benefits in other sectors, such as the aviation and electricity sectors. 

Activities in the area of SSA and securing space infrastructures from threats can also impact 
the competitiveness of the European space industry. 

6.2.2.  Environmental impact 

Better  information  on  space  weather  may  result  in  better  knowledge  of  climate  change  and 
earth weather. More accurate information on meteors will reduce the adverse affects of debris 
and meteors striking Earth. 

6.2.3. 

Social impact 

Protecting space assets ensures that important services will keep functioning even in case of 
major disruption of terrestrial systems. 

6.3. 

Option 3 

6.3.1.  Economic impact 

•  Activities  foreseen  under  option  3  will  involve  expenditure  on  a  wide  range  of  areas, 
including  technology  demonstration  and  hardware  or  processes  development.  These 
products  and  services  are  delivered  by  and  benefit  a  wide  range  of  public  and  private 
institutions and manufacturers in Europe. 

The EU expenditure on space exploration can be expected to translate directly into turnover 
for the space industry by a minimum estimated factor of 2.3, implying that €100 million spent 
on space exploration will result in €230 million in supplying industries and new products. The 
most significant spill-over impact on non-space sectors is expected in the field of life support, 
health and wellbeing9. 

6.3.2.  Environmental impact 

•  Space exploration will enhance the understanding of our own environment, which in turn 
will  result  in  better  definition  of  environmental  policies.  It  will  have  positive  effects  in 
areas  such  as  air  quality  management  and  regeneration,  energy  production,  storage  and 
distribution technologies, and water management. 

9 

“Space  exploration  and  innovation,  industrial  competitiveness  and  technology  advance”,  Workshop 
conclusions and recommendations, 29-30 April 2010, Harwell (UK);   
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/space/esp/conferences_space_en.htm. 

EN 

6 

   EN 

                                                 
6.3.3. 

Social impact 

•  An EU intervention in space exploration is expected to lead to social impacts in terms of 
employment,  labour  market  structure  and  education,  and  health.  The  US  Space  Shuttle 
programme had an employment multiplier factor of 2.8. 

•  The  space  environment  offers  unique  possibilities  to  study  health  problems  related  to 
various diseases, aging or immobility. Other societal benefits will be derived in the fields 
of energy, health, biotechnology, environment or security. 

6.4. 

Option 4 

6.4.1.  Economic impact 

•  The  rationale  for  economic  impact  described  under  option  3  applies  to  option  4  as  well. 

The potential economic impacts will be commensurate with the increased funding. 

Space  exploration  programmes  are  essential  in  order  to  maintain  the  competitiveness  of 
current and next generation of European launchers. 

•  Due  to  the  various  technologies  needed  a  large  number  of  high-tech  applications  in  the 
biotechnology  and  pharmaceutical  industry  are  foreseen,  e.g.  bio-containment,  tele-
operations  including  remote  micro-robotics, automated handling  and  storage systems and 
micro-analytical systems10. 

•  The profile of the EU at global level will be significantly enhanced. 

6.4.2.  Environmental impact 

By dealing with topics such as comparative planetary climatology or earth observation from 
the ISS, research related to space exploration would help understand climate change on Earth. 

6.4.3. 

Social impact 

Space exploration will contribute to developing global scientific leadership for Europe. Space 
exploration activities will foster the public interest in space science and technology, and will 
encourage young people to take up science, technology, engineering and maths. 

•  There will be a substantial positive impact on creating new, qualified jobs. ESA11 estimates 
that an investment of the magnitude proposed under option 4 will lead to the creation of 
3000  highly  qualified  direct  jobs.  With  a  possible  employment  factor  of  2,812  overall 
employment generated by this option could accrue to more than 8000 jobs. 

10 

11 
12 

“Space  exploration  and  innovation,  industrial  competitiveness  and  technology  advance”,  Workshop 
conclusions and recommendations, 29-30 April 2010, Harwell (UK);   
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/space/esp/conferences_space_en.htm. 
Data provided by the European Space Agency. 
Jerome Schnee, The Economic Impact of the US Space Programme, Rutgers University,  

EN 

7 

   EN 

                                                 
7. 

COMPARISON OF THE OPTIONS 

Options 

Option 1 

Option 2 

Option 3 

Effectiveness 

Efficiency 

Coherence 

•  Option  1  will  not  achieve  the  specific 
objectives  of  this  action.  The  funding 
would be available for other initiatives. 

Not applicable 

This  option  achieves  specific  objectives  (1) 
regarding  long  term  availability  and  security 
of European space infrastructures and services 
and  partly  objective 
the 
convergence  of  national  and  EU  policies  and 
investments  on  SSA  and  the  connection  of 
these and other EU policies. 

regarding 

(4) 

Option 2 entails an expenditure of €130 million per year . An 
SSA system could save as a minimum over €240 million per 
year. This option diminishes the risk of domino effect due to 
spacecraft  destruction.  It  has  important  social  benefits 
resulting  from  avoiding  the  disruption  of  satellite  based 
services, better prevention of electricity grid failure as well as 
the  impacts  of  NEOs.  Positive  impact  on  environment 
notably by learning more from space weather. 

This  option  achieves  objectives  (1),  (2)  and 
(4),  but  only  in  part  objectives  (3)  and  (5).  It 
does not fully guarantee independent access to 
on-orbit infrastructures. Option 3 will give EU 
a  higher  profile  in  space  matters  but  not  the 
leading  and  strategic  role  referred  to  in 
objective 5. 

Option  3  entails  an  additional  expenditure  of  €400  million 
per year. The total for this option is €530 million per year . 
Conservative  estimates  put  the  rate  of  return  for  investment 
in  space  exploration  at  2.3  and  employment  factor  at  2.8. 
Other  significant 
impacts  on  Europe's  visibility  and 
innovation  potential,  the  creation  of  qualified  high-skilled 
jobs and beneficial spin-off effects. 

This  option  is  not  consistent  with  the  EU2020  growth 
strategy,  which  emphasises 
importance  of 
innovation and industrial competitiveness and refers to the 
development of space policy as instrument to achieve the 
goals of such strategy.  

the  key 

This  option  is  partly  but  not  fully  coherent  with  the 
EU2020  growth  strategy.  While  SSA  represents  certain 
potential  for  innovation  and  growth,  its  main  purpose  is 
the  protection  of  space  infrastructure.  The  innovation 
potential  in  space  exploration  is  not  addressed  in  this 
option. 

Option  3  is  fully  consistent  with  the  EU2020  strategy;  it 
will contribute to innovation and derive spill-over benefits 
in  many  areas  and  EU  policies  including  health  and 
environment. 

Option 4 

This  option  will  achieve  the  five  objectives 
identified. 

The rationale described for option 3 applies to option 4. This 
option  adds  €900  million  per  year, 
billion  per  year.  Option  4  represents  an  enormous 
technological  challenge  which  will  accelerate  the  pace  of 
technological  progress  and  multiply  the  spill-off  and  spill-
over benefits for our economy and citizens. 

the  total  being  €1.43 

From  the  coherence  standpoint,  this  option  is  similar  to 
option 3. 

EN 

8 

EN 

 
  
 
8. 

MONITORING AND EVALUATION 

The present impact assessment will accompany a Communication on the future involvement 
of  the  EU  in  space  which  could  pave  the  way  for  a  European  Space  Programme  proposal. 
Detailed provision for monitoring and evaluation will be discussed in that Impact Assessment 
for that proposal. 

*** 

EN 

9 

   EN