COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL  Progress towards achieving the Kyoto OBJECTIVES   (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol)   COM(2010)569 final
Date: 2010-10-12
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU environmental policy, greenhouse gas, international convention, pollution control measures, reduction of gas emissions, report, tradeable emission permit

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 12.10.2010 
SEC(2010)1204 final 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 
Accompanying the 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND 
THE COUNCIL 

PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES  

(required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of 
the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas 
emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) 

COM(2010)569 final 

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1. 

1.1. 

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EMISSION TRENDS IN THE MAIN SECTORS  

Energy supply and use, excluding transport 

Table 1: GHG emissions from energy supply and use, excluding transport (1990-2008)  

GHG 
emissions 

Share in 1990 
total GHG 

Share in 2008 
total GHG 

Change 
1990-2008 

Change 
2000-2008 

EU-15 
EU-27 

60,2% 
62,7% 

58,7% 
59,6% 

-8,8% 
-15,6% 

-2,8% 
-3,3% 

•  Total GHG emissions from energy supply and use decreased in the period 1990-2008 by 

8.8% in EU-15 and by 15.6% in EU-27.  

•  Total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply were 5% below 1990 levels in 

2008 and in the EU-27 12.3 % below 1990 level.  

•  Total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from energy use were 12.5 % below 1990 levels in 

2008 and in the EU-27 19.3 % below 1990 level.  

•  In EU-15 CO2 emissions from public heat and electricity production increased by 1 % 
during 1990-2008, but emissions would have risen by over 35 %, had the shares of input 
fuels used to produce electricity and heat and the efficiency remained constant. 

•  CO2 emissions increased in seven Member States and fell in eight. Of the seven countries 
where emissions were higher in 2008 than in 1990, 37 % of the increase was accounted for 
by Spain alone . Of the eight countries, where emissions fell, 51 % of the reduction came 
from the UK.  

•  The relationship between the increase in electricity generation and the actual reduction in 

emissions during 1990-2008 can be explained by the following factors:  

•  An  improvement  in  the  thermal  efficiency  of  electricity  and  heat  production. 
During 1990-2008, there was a 10 % reduction in the fossil-fuel input per unit of 
electricity produced from fossil fuels.  

•  Changes in the fossil fuel mix used to produce electricity, i.e. fuel switching from 
coal and lignite to natural gas. There was a 18 % reduction in the CO2 emissions 
per unit of fossil-fuel input during 1990-2008. 

•  The  lower  combined  share  of  nuclear  and  renewable  energy  for  electricity  and 
heat  production  in  2008  compared  to  1990.  During  1990-2008,  the  share  of 
electricity from fossil fuels in total electricity production increased by 1 %.  

•  The decoupling of fuel combustion and greenhouse gas emissions is also observed in the 
EU-27  and  is  also  caused  by  fuel  switching  (e.g.  from  coal  to  gas  or  renewable)  and 
efficiency improvements. 

1.2. 

Transport 

Table 2: GHG emissions from transport (1990-2008)  

 GHG 
emissions 

Share in 1990 
total GHG 

Share in 2008 
total GHG 

Change 
1990-2008 

Change 
2000-2008 

EU-15 
EU-27 

16,5% 
14,0% 

21,1% 
19,5% 

19,9% 
23,6% 

1,0% 
5,1% 

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•  Total GHG emissions from transport increased by 19.9% in EU-15 and by 23.6% in EU-
27, between1990-2008. The trend of greenhouse gas emissions follows closely the trend of 
fuel combustion.  

•  Additional measures will be necessary to keep control over GHG emissions from transport 
sector  in  the  coming  years.  Germany,  France,  Italy,  Spain  and  the  United  Kingdom 
contributed most to the CO2 emissions from this source (76 %). All Member States, except 
for Germany (-4%), increased emissions from road transportation between 1990 and 2008.  

•  The  Member  States  with  the  highest  increases  in  absolute  terms  were  Spain,  Italy  and 
France.  The  countries  with  the  lowest  increase  in  relative  terms  were  Finland,  France, 
Sweden and the United Kingdom.  

•  Between 2007 and 2008 emissions from road transport decreased in the EU-15 as well as 
in EU-27. All EU-15 countries except Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, reported 
emission decreases. The highest reduction were reported by France, Spain, Italy where the 
use  of  biofuels  increased  strongly,  and  the  United  Kingdom.  From  EU-12  only  four  MS 
reported decreases. 

•  CO2 emissions from road transportation is the second largest key source of all categories in 
the EU-15 and had the highest increase in absolute terms of all energy-related emissions. 
•  CO2  emissions  from  civil  aviation36  account  for  2.6%  of  total  transport-related  GHG 
emissions  in  2008  (EU-15).  Between  1990  and  2008,  CO2  emissions  from  civil  aviation 
increased by 29 % in the EU-15. 

1.3. 

Agriculture  

Table 3: GHG emissions from agriculture (1990-2008)  

GHG 
emission  

Share in 1990 
total GHG 

Share in 2008 
total GHG 

Change 
1990-2008 

Change 
2000-2008 

EU-15 
EU-27 

10,1% 
10,6% 

9,5% 
9,6% 

-12,2% 
-20,2% 

-7,8% 
-5,8% 

•  Total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture were 12.2 % below 1990 levels. 
Agriculture is the main CH4 and N2O emitter and accounts for 9.5% of total EU-15 GHG 
emissions in 2008. In the EU-27 emissions were 20.2 % below 1990 emissions in 2008. 

•  In  2008  N2O  and  CH4  account  for  5.3 %  and  4.2 %  respectively  of  the  total  GHG 

emissions in EU-15. 

•  Large  reductions  occurred  in  the  largest  key  sources:  N2O  from  direct  soil  emissions, 
indirect  emissions  and  CH4  from  cattle.  The  main  reasons  for  this  are  decreasing  use  of 
fertiliser and manure and declining cattle numbers in most Member States. 

•  Enteric fermentation from cattle is the largest single source of CH4 emissions in the EU-
15  accounting  for  2.6 %  of  total  GHG  emissions  in  2008.  Between  1990  and  2008,  CH4 
emissions from enteric fermentation from cattle declined by 12 % in the EU-15. In 2008, 
the  emissions  were  at  the  level  of  2007.  The  main  driving  force  of  CH4  emissions  from 
enteric fermentation is the number of cattle, which was 15 % below 1990 levels in 2008. 
The  Member  States  with  most  emissions  from  this  source  were  France  and  Germany 
(44 %).  All  EU-15  Member  States  except  Spain,  Portugal  and  Greece  reduced  CH4 
emissions from enteric fermentation of cattle between 1990 and 2008. 

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•  Swine  and  cattle  contribute  more  or  less  equally  to  CH4  emisisons  from  manure 

management. 

•  N2O  emissions  from  agricultural  soils  decreased  by  15 %  between  1990  and  2008.  All 
EU-15 Member States decreased emissions. Direct N2O emissions from agricultural soils is 
the largest source category of N2O emissions and accounts for 2.6 % of total EU-15 GHG 
emissions in 2008. The Member States with most emissions from this source were France 
and  Germany.  All  Member  States  except  the  Netherlands  reduced  N2O  emissions  from 
agricultural soils. 

•  The decrease in emissions is largely a consequence of efficiency improvements, the reform 
of the EU common agricultural policy (CAP) as well as the implementation of the Nitrate 
Directive aimed at reducing water pollution. 

1.4. 

Industrial processes 

Table 4: GHG emissions from industrial processes (1990-2008)  

GHG 
emissions 

Share in 1990 
total GHG 

Share in 2008 
total GHG 

Change 
1990-2008 

Change 
2000-2008 

EU-15 
EU-27 

8,8% 
8,7% 

7,9% 
8,3% 

-16,6% 
-15,4% 

-5,6% 
-0,7% 

•  Total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from industry were 16.6 % below 1990 levels in 

2008. In the EU-27 emissions were 15.4 % below 1990 emissions in 2008. 

•  Industrial  processes  is  the  third  largest  sector  contributing  8 %  to  total  EU-15  GHG 
emissions  in  2008.  The  most  important  GHGs  from  this  sector  are  CO2  (5.4 %  of  total 
GHG  emissions),  HFCs  (1.6 %)  and  N2O  (0.6 %).  Large  emisisons  decrease  in  2008 
mainly occurred in cement production as well as iron and steel production.  

•  CO2  emissions  from  mineral  products  category  increased  by  1 %  in  1990-2008.  Spain 
noted  largest  emission  increases  in  absolute  terms  and  France  largest  absolute  emission 
reductions  in  the  period  1990-2008.  CO2  emissions  from  cement  production  account  for 
2 %  of  total  EU-15  GHG  emissions  in  2008.  In  2008,  CO2  emissions  from  cement 
production were 1 % below 1990 levels in the EU-15. 

•  Between  1990  and  2008,  CO2  emission  from  chemical  industry  increased  by  2 %.  The 
absolute  increase  was  largest  in  Germany  and  Belgium,  the  absolute  reductions  were 
largest  in  France,  Ireland  and  Italy.  Between  1990  and  2008,  N2O  emission  from  this 
category  decreased  by  76 %.  The  absolute  decreases  were  largest  in  UK,  France  and 
Germany. 

•  Between  1990  and  2008,  CO2  emission  from  metal  production  decreased  by  8 %.  The 
absolute  decrease  was  largest  in  Germany  and  Italy,  the  absolute  growth  was  largest  in 
Austria. 

•  HFC  emissions  from  consumption  of  halocarbons  and  SF6  account  for  1.5 %  of  total 
EU-15  GHG  emissions  in  2008.  HFC  emissions  in  2008  were  101  times  higher  than  in 
1990.  The  main  reason  for  this  is  the  phase-out  of  ozone-depleting  substances  such  as 
chlorofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol and the replacement of these substances 
with  HFCs  (mainly  in  refrigeration,  air  conditioning,  foam  production  and  as  aerosol 
propellants).  France,  Germany,  UK  and  Italy  had  the  most  significant  absolute  increases 
from this source between 1990 and 2008. 

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1.5.  Waste management  

Table 5: GHG emissions from waste management (1990-2008)  

GHG 
emission  

Share in 1990 
total GHG 

Share in 2008 
total GHG 

Change 
1990-2008 

Change 
2000-2008 

EU-15 
EU-27 

4,0% 
3,7% 

2,6% 
2,8% 

-40,5% 
-33,0% 

-24,9% 
-19,7% 

•  In 2008 total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from waste were 40.5 % below 1990 levels 

and 33 % below 1990 in EU-27.  

•  Waste is the fourth largest sector in the EU-15, contributing 2.6 % to total GHG emissions. 

In 2008, emissions decreased by 2 % compared to 2007. 

•  CH4 emissions from solid waste decreased by 47 % between 1990 and 2008 in the EU-15. 
Twelve EU-15 Member States reduced their emissions from this source, Greece, Portugal 
and Spain did not. 

•  Between 1990 and 2008, CH4 emissions from managed landfills declined by 48 % in the 
EU-15. Eleven EU-15 Member States reduced their emissions from this source during that 
period,  Greece,  Italy,  Portugal  and  Spain  did  not.  In  2008,  CH4  emissions  from  landfills 
decreased  by  3 %  compared  to  2007.  A  main  driving  force  of  CH4  emissions  from 
managed waste disposal on land is the amount of biodegradable waste going to landfills. 
Total  municipal  waste  disposal  on  land  declined  by  37 %  between  1990  and  2008.  In 
addition, CH4 emissions from landfills are influenced by the amount of CH4 recovered and 
utilised or flared. The share of CH4 recovery increased in several EU-15 Member States. 

•  The  Member  States  with  most  emissions  from  managed  waste  disposal  on  land  were 
Germany,  Spain,  Italy  and  the  UK  accounting  for  72 %  of  EU-15  emissions.  The  largest 
reductions  in  absolute  terms  were  reported  by  Germany  and  the  UK.  The  emission 
reductions  are  partly  due  to  the  (early)  implementation  of  the  landfill  waste  directive  or 
similar legislation of the Member States. 

2. 

GHG EMISSIONS IN THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES 

The Republic of Croatia is a Party to the UNFCCC from April 1996 and ratified the Kyoto 
Protocol  in  May  2007  committing  to  a  5%  reduction  of  GHG  compared  to  the  base  year 
(1990)14.  Between  1990  and  2008  Croatia's  GHG  emissions  decreased  by  0.6%  and 
comparing  to  2007  decreased  by  3.7%.  Use  of  hydro  power  has  significant  influence  on 
Croatian  GHG  emissions  from  energy  sector.  CO2  emissions  per  capita  are  at  7.0  tons  and 
CO2 intensity of GDP is around the double of that of the EU. According to the 5th National 
Communication, Croatia is projected to face difficulties with achieving its Kyoto target with 
the current set of policies and measures. 

Iceland ratified the UNFCCC in June 1993 and the Kyoto Protocol in May 2002 committing 
itself to keep the increase of GHG emissions within 10% compared to the base year (1990). 
Iceland's  GHG  emissions  between  1990  and  2008  increased  by  44%  and  in  2008  were  9% 
higher than in 2007. The main reason for the increase in emissions is the expansion of heavy 
industry in Iceland, mainly in the field of aluminium production. CO2 emissions per capita are 
at 15.5 tons and CO2 intensity of GDP is around 20% higher than in the EU.  According to 
latest  projections  included  in  the  5th  National  Communication  and  taking  into  account 

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decision  14/CP.7  (allowing  Iceland  to  exclude  emission  from  the  heavy  industry  from  the 
commitment level under the Kyoto Protocol in the period 2008-2012), Iceland is on track to 
meet its Kyoto target.  

Turkey  became  an  Annex  I  Party  to  the  UNFCCC  in  May  2004  and  ratified  the  Kyoto 
Protocol  in  May  2009  (however  has  no  GHG  limitation/reduction  commitment).  Turkey’s 
first National Communication to the UNFCCC was submitted in January 2007. According to 
the recent GHG inventory, in 2008 Turkey’s emissions amounted to 366.5 MtCO2-eq, so an 
increase of 96% was noted compared to 187 MtCO2-eq. in 1990. Nevertheless, in 2008 GHG 
emissions  decreased  by  3.5%  compared  to  2007.  Between  1990  and  2008,  per  capita  GHG 
emissions  have  increased  in  Turkey.  However,  at  5.2  tonnes,  the  per  capita  emissions  in 
Turkey are about half of the average EU-27 per capita emissions. Turkey's emissions intensity 
doubled  between1990-2008,  whereas  in  EU-27  emissions  per  GDP  decreased  by  40%  over 
that period.  

The  former  Yugoslav  Republic  of  Macedonia  (fYRoM)  became  a  Party  to  UNFCCC  in 
January  1998  and  ratified  the  Kyoto  Protocol  in  November  2004.  FYRoM  is  considered  a 
developing  country  under  the  Convention  and  its  Protocol.  In  January  2009  the  fYRoM 
submitted to the UNFCCC secretariat its 2nd National Communication, including inventory of 
GHG emissions from 1990-2002. Between 1990 and 2002 total GHG emissions decreased by 
around 10%. Currently CO2 emissions per capita are at level of 4.1 ton and GDP per capita 
amounts to 2300 € in 2005. Currently, there is no information on projections available for the 
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. 

Figure 1: GHG total emissions and emissions per capita in the EU candidate countries 

Croatia

31,4

31,1

Iceland

3,4

4,9

fYRoM

13,8
12,5

1990

2002

2008

Turkey

187,0

366,5

0

100

200

300

400

Mt CO2 eq.

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Croatia

Iceland

fYRoM

Turkey

6,6

7,0

7,4

6,1

3,4

5,2

13,5

15,5

1990

2002

2008

0

5

10

15

20

t CO2 eq . per capita

Note: no 2008 data available for fYRoM, 2002 data is the most recent 

Source: EEA 

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Table 6: GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents (excl. LULUCF) and Kyoto Protocol targets 
for 2008–12  

GHG 
emissions 
2008 (3) 
in Mt CO2 
86,6 
133,3 
73,5 
10,2 
141,4 
63,8 
20,3 
70,1 
527,0 
958,1 
126,9 
73,1 
67,4 
541,5 
11,9 
24,3 
12,5 
3,0 
206,9 
395,6 
78,4 
145,9 
48,8 
21,3 
405,7 
64,0 

Change 
2007-
2008 
in % 
-0,4% 
2,3% 
-3,2% 
3,7% 
-4,1% 
-4,5% 
-8,2% 
-10,2% 
-0,6% 
0,1% 
-3,8% 
-3,4% 
-0,3% 
-2,0% 
-3,1% 
-4,5% 
-2,3% 
-1,8% 
0,0% 
-1,1% 
-1,9% 
-4,4% 
2,3% 
3,5% 
-7,5% 
-3,3% 

Change 
2008 
relative to 
base year 
in % 

EU burden-
sharing or 
Kyoto 
target 
in % 

-13,0% 
-7,5% 
-8,0% 

-8,0% 
-21,0% 
-8,0% 
0,0% 
0,0% 
-21,0% 
25,0% 
-6,0% 
13,0% 
-6,5% 
-8,0% 
-8,0% 
-28,0% 

9,6% 
-8,6% 
-44,6% 
93,9%  no target 
-27,2% 
-7,9% 
-52,5% 
-1,2% 
-6,5% 
-22,3% 
18,6% 
-36,6% 
21,3% 
4,8% 
-54,1% 
-50,8% 
-5,1% 
44,2%  no target 
-2,9% 
-29,8% 
30,3% 
-47,6% 
-32,2% 
4,6% 
40,0% 
-11,3% 

-6,0% 
-6,0% 
27,0% 
-8,0% 
-8,0% 
-8,0% 
15,0% 
4,0% 

EU 
burden-
sharing or 
Kyoto 
target 
in Mt CO2 
68,8 
134,8 
122,0 

no target 

178,7 
54,8 
39,2 
71,0 
563,9 
973,6 
133,7 
108,5 
62,8 
483,3 
23,8 
45,5 
9,5 

no target 

200,3 
529,6 
76,4 
256,0 
66,3 
18,7 
333,2 
75,0 

628,2 
3970,5 
4939,7 

-1,8% 
-1,9% 
-2,0% 

-19,1% 
-6,9% 

-12,5% 
-8,0% 

679,3 
3924,3 

-14,3%  no target 

no target 

Base Year 
(1) 
in Mt CO2 

79,0 
145,7 
132,6 
5,3 
194,2 
69,3 
42,6 
71,0 
563,9 
1232,4 
107,0 
115,4 
55,6 
516,9 
25,9 
49,4 
13,2 
2,0 
213,0 
563,4 
60,1 
278,2 
72,1 
20,4 
289,8 
72,2 

776,3 
4265,5 
5767,1 

1990 

78,2 
143,4 
117,4 
5,3 
195,2 
68,9 
40,8 
70,4 
563,2 
1231,8 
103,3 
97,4 
54,8 
517,0 
26,8 
49,7 
13,1 
2,0 
212,0 
453,3 
59,3 
242,1 
73,9 
18,5 
285,1 
72,4 

771,7 
4244,7 
5567,0 

Austria 
Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus (4) 
Czech Republic 
Denmark 
Estonia 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Italy 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Luxembourg 
Malta (4) 
Netherlands 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovakia 
Slovenia 
Spain 
Sweden 
United 
Kingdom 
EU-15 
EU-27 (2) 

Notes: 

(1)  For  EU-15  the  base  year  for  carbon  dioxide,  methane  and  nitrous  oxide  is  1990;  for  the  fluorinated  gases  12  Member 
States have selected 1995 as the base year, whereas Austria, France and Italy have chosen 1990. As the EU-15 inventory is 
the  sum  of  Member  States’  inventories,  the  EU-15  base  year  estimates  for  fluorinated  gas  emissions  are  the  sum  of  1995 
emissions  for  12  Member  States  and  1990  emissions  for  Austria,  France  and  Italy.  The  EU-15  base  year  emissions  also 
include emissions from deforestation for the Netherlands, Portugal and the UK. The base year for carbon dioxide, methane 
and  nitrous  oxide  for  Bulgaria  is  1988,  for  Hungary is  the average  of  1985-1987,  for  Slovenia  1986,  for  Poland 1988,  for 
Romania 1989; for the fluorinated gases Slovakia has chosen 1990 as the base year and Romania 1989 all other central and 
eastern European members states have selected 1995. 

(2) EU-27 does not have a common Kyoto Protocol target. 

(3) This data has not yet been reviewed by the UNFCCC. 

(4 )Malta and Cyprus do not have Kyoto targets.

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Table 7: Kyoto targets for non-ETS sectors for 2008–2012, compared with emission projections  

 Base-year 
emissions 
(BY)

Kyoto or burden-
sharing target

Member State

Total allowed 
emissions of non-
ETS sectors 
(approxi-
mation)

Projections of non-ETS emissions

Removals (-) or 
emissions (+) from 
carbon sink activities

Use of Kyoto 
mechanisms at 
government level

Projections of non-ETS emissions 
with carbon sink removals and use 
of Kyoto mechanisms

Annual average 
2008-2012

Annual 
average 
2008-2012

Gap between 
projections and target 

Annual average 
2008-2012

Annual average 
2008-2012

Annual 
average 
2008-2012

Gap between 
projections and target 

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-
eq.

 % change 
from BY

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq. Mt CO2-eq.

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus (3)
Czech Republic
Denmark (2)
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland (2)
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta (3)
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU-15
EU-27

68,8
79,0
134,8
145,7
122,0
132,6
no target
5,3
178,7
194,2
54,8
69,3
39,2
42,6
71,0
71,0
563,9
563,9
973,6
1.232,4
133,7
107,0
108,5
115,4
62,8
55,6
483,3
516,9
23,8
25,9
45,5
49,4
9,5
13,2
no target
2,0
200,3
213,0
529,6
563,4
76,4
60,1
256,0
278,2
66,3
72,1
18,7
20,4
333,2
289,8
75,0
72,2
679,3
776,3
4.265,5
3.924,3
5.767,1 no target

-13,0%
-7,5%
-8,0%
no target
-8,0%
-21,0%
-8,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-21,0%
25,0%
-6,0%
13,0%
-6,5%
-8,0%
-8,0%
-28,0%
no target
-6,0%
-6,0%
27,0%
-8,0%
-8,0%
-8,0%
15,0%
4,0%
-12,5%
-8,0%
no target

38,0
76,3
83,9
na
92,0
30,8
27,4
33,4
431,9
522,1
65,4
81,8
41,6
281,7
20,4
36,9
7,0
na
112,8
323,9
41,6
181,9
33,7
10,4
181,0
52,6
433,7
2.353,8
na

54,7
77,7
32,9
4,7
61,2
36,3
6,6
32,8
401,2
467,3
57,1
46,0
45,8
316,5
8,7
16,9
10,5
0,9
116,2
192,3
45,8
82,2
23,8
12,5
238,9
43,8
357,4
2.300,8
2.787,7

16,6
1,3
-51,1
na
-30,8
5,5
-20,8
-0,6
-30,8
-54,8
-8,3
-35,8
4,3
34,8
-11,7
-20,0
3,5
na
3,4
-131,7
4,2
-99,7
-10,0
2,1
57,9
-8,7
-76,2
-53,0
na

EN 

Mt CO2-eq.

 % of BY 
emissions

Mt CO2-eq.

-0,7
0,0
0,0
na
-1,2
-1,7
0,0
-0,6
-4,5
-4,5
-1,2
-1,1
-2,7
-10,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
na
-0,1
-3,0
-4,7
0,0
0,0
-1,3
-5,5
-2,1
-4,0
-42,5
-49,0

-0,9%
0,0%
0,0%
na
-0,6%
-2,4%
0,0%
-0,8%
-0,8%
-0,4%
-1,1%
-0,9%
-4,9%
-2,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
na
-0,1%
-0,5%
-7,7%
0,0%
0,0%
-6,5%
-1,9%
-3,0%
-0,5%
-1,0%
-0,8%

-9,0
-4,3
0,0
na
25,0
-3,9
0,0
-1,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
4,0
-1,7
-17,1
8,0
0,0
-3,8
na
-13,0
0,0
-4,8
0,0
9,4
-1,0
-57,8
0,0
0,0
-116,7
-71,3

 % of BY 
emissions
-11,4%
-2,9%
0,0%
na
12,9%
-5,6%
0,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
3,5%
-3,0%
-3,3%
30,9%
0,1%
-28,9%
na
-6,1%
0,0%
-8,0%
0,0%
13,0%
-4,9%
-19,9%
0,0%
0,0%
-2,7%
-1,2%

Mt CO2-eq. Mt CO2-eq.

45,0
73,4
32,9
4,7
85,0
30,8
6,6
30,8
396,7
462,8
55,9
48,9
41,5
289,2
16,7
17,0
6,7
0,9
103,1
189,3
36,3
82,2
33,2
10,2
175,7
41,7
353,4
2.141,6
2.667,4

6,9
-2,9
-51,1
na
-7,0
0,0
-20,8
-2,6
-35,2
-59,4
-9,5
-32,9
-0,1
7,5
-3,7
-19,9
-0,3
na
-9,7
-134,7
-5,3
-99,7
-0,6
-0,2
-5,3
-10,9
-80,3
-212,2
na

 % of BY 
emissions
8,7%
-2,0%
-38,5%
na
-3,6%
0,0%
-48,8%
-3,7%
-6,2%
-4,8%
-8,9%
-28,5%
-0,2%
1,5%
-14,2%
-40,3%
-2,5%
na
-4,6%
-23,9%
-8,8%
-35,8%
-0,8%
-1,2%
-1,8%
-15,0%
-10,3%
-5,0%
na

 % of BY 
emissions
21,0%
0,9%
-38,5%
na
-15,9%
8,0%
-48,8%
-0,9%
-5,5%
-4,4%
-7,8%
-31,0%
7,7%
6,7%
-45,1%
-40,4%
26,3%
na
1,6%
-23,4%
7,0%
-35,8%
-13,9%
10,2%
20,0%
-12,1%
-9,8%
-1,2%
na

10 

EN 

 
  
 
Notes:  

(1) The approach to project GHG emissions for the Kyoto period between 2008 and 2012 in an up to date and consistent way is to stick as  much as possible to reported 
emissions and use recent PRIMES and GAINS modelling results for the estimation of the trend development for all those countries, for which no up to date recent detailed 
national projections are available. The PRIMES-GAINS baseline scenario 2009 projects CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2030 at EU27 and Member 
State  level  based on  the PRIMES  energy  system  model  for  CO2 emissions  and  the GAINS  emissions  model  for non-CO2  emissions,  supported  by  the  CAPRI  agricultural 
model to estimate trends in agricultural activity.  

The baseline 2009 reflects implemented policy measures at EU and national level as of spring 2009, notably the amended ETS directive, the regulation on CO2 emissions of 
new passenger cars, the implementing measures of the Eco-Design and Labelling Directives and national renewable policies. Achievement of national reduction targets for the 
sectors not covered by the ETS (Effort Sharing Decision) or national renewable energy targets is not assumed, but progress in the baseline depends on the extent to which 
legislation and other measures have been put in place by Member States and the EU to achieve these targets effectively. The scenario builds on macro projections of GDP and 
population  which  reflect  the  recent  economic  downturn,  followed  by  sustained  economic  growth  resuming  after  2010.  Consultations  were  organised  with  Member  States 
during 2009 on inputs used and results15.  

The estimate focuses on non-ETS sector emissions, given that the ETS sector is fully covered by the EU emissions trading system which complies with the Kyoto targets. The 
average non-ETS emissions between 2008 and 2012 are derived as follows: 

•  2008: historical emissions (UNFCCC minus scope adjusted ETS) 

•  2010 PRIMES emission trend 2005-10 applied to 2005 historical emissions and controlled for consistency with measured 2008 emissions  

•  2009 proxy data estimates by Member States as far as usable, for other countries: average between 2010 and 2008 emissions 

•  2011 and 2012 PRIMES emission trend 2010-15 applied to estimated 2010 emissions 

(2) Projections from Denmark and Ireland were provided in sufficient detail to be included in this analysis. Both countries also reported an amount of unused allowances 
projected to remain in their new entrants reserve under the EU ETS by the end of the commitment period, which they intend to use for Kyoto compliance. These amounts 
(0.55  million  AAUs per  year  for Denmark  and 1  million  AAUs per  year  for Ireland)  were  included  in  the  total  allowed  emissions  of non-ETS  sectors. The use  of Kyoto 
mechanisms  by  Denmark  includes  also  further  budgetary  measures  foreseen  [document  Aktstykke  nr.  116,  adopted  by  Danish  Parliament's  Finance  Committee  on 
22/04/2010]. 

(3) No commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, therefore no base year and no emission target. 1990 emissions are used in the column "base year". 

(4) "na" means "not applicable" 

For  further  details  on  PRIMES-GAINS  projections  and  its  underlying  methodology  see  COMMISSION  STAFF  WORKING  DOCUMENT  accompanying  the 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE 
AND  THE  COMMITTEE  OF  THE  REGIONS:  Analysis  of  options  to  move  beyond  20%  greenhouse  gas  emission  reductions  and  assessing  the  risk  of  carbon  leakage 
{COM(2010) 265 final}. Background information and analysis, Part II. SEC(2010) 650, Brussels, 26.5.2010; Höglund-Isaksson, L., W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner, Z. Klimont 
and  M.  Amann:  Potentials  and  costs  for  mitigation  of  non-CO2  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Union  until  2030.  Update  2010,  May  2010, 
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/climat_action/non_co2emissions_may2010.pdf; European Commission, DG Energy: EU energy trends to 2030 — UPDATE 2009, 
September 2010. 

EN 

11 

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Table 8: Aggregate of GHG projections for the various scenarios  

Base year 
emissions 

Annual 
average 
2008–2012 
Mt CO2 eq.  Mt CO2 eq. 

Projections of total 
emissions 

Projections of total 
emissions with use of Kyoto 
mechanisms 

Projections of total 
emissions with carbon sink 
removals and use of Kyoto 
mechanisms 

change from 
base year 

% 
-10,4% 
-17,3% 
-14,3% 

Annual 
average 
2008–2012 
Mt CO2 eq. 
3.704,3 
4.698,6 
4.698,6 

change from 
base year 

% 
-13,2% 
-18,5% 
-15,6% 

Annual 
average 
2008–2012 
Mt CO2 eq. 
3.661,8 
4.649,6 
4.649,6 

change from 
base year 

% 
-14,2% 
-19,4% 
-16,5% 

EU-15 
EU-27 
EU-27 (1990) 

4.265,5 
5.767,1 
5.567,0 

3.821,0 
4.769,9 
4.769,9 

EN 

12 

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Table 9: Summary of implemented and planned policies and measures  

Cross-cutting measures 

Policies and measures 
‘Cross-cutting’ 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 

EU Emission Trading 
Scheme 
Revision of the monitoring 
mechanism 
Link Kyoto flexible 
mechanisms to emissions 
trading 

Energy Supply 

N/a 

N/a 

N/a 

In force. First phase (2005-
07)Second phase (2008-12)Third 
phase (2013-20)  

In force  

In force 

N/a 

N/a 

N/a 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 

100-12516 

In force  

600-90017 

In force 

0.87518 

N/a 

In force 

Policies and measures 
‘Energy supply’ 

Promotion of electricity 
from RES-E (2001) 

(New) Renewable energy 
Directive 

CCS Directive  
NER300 laying down 
criteria and measures for 
the financing of 
commercial demonstration 
projects for CCS and 
innovative renewable 
energy technologies under 
the revised EU ETS 
Directive on promotion of 
cogeneration 

Further measures on 
renewable heat (including 
biomass action plan) 
Intelligent Energy for 
Europe: programme for 
renewable energy 

6519 

36-4820 

N/a 

In preparation 

In force 
Biomass Action Plan, Dec 2005, 
over 20 further actions planned. 
Renewable heat included in 
proposed new Directive on 
renewable energy  

Programme for policy support in 
renewable energy  

Amendments to a number of 
directives26 to continue to help 
complete the internal energy 
market. 

Developing the internal 
energy market 

TOTAL  

80-120 16 
282-358 

600.9-900.9 

EN 

13 

   EN 

 
  
  
 
 
 
  
  
 
 
  
Energy demand 

Policies and measures 
‘Energy demand’ 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Directive on the energy 
performance of buildings 
Directive on the energy 
performance of buildings 
(recast) 
Directive on ecodesign 
requirements for energy-
related products  
Directive on labelling of 
the consumption of energy 
and other resources by 
energy-related products 
Regulation on the labelling 
of tyres with respect to fuel 
efficiency and other 
essential parameters 
Regulation on energy 
efficiency labelling 
programme for office 
equipment (Energy Star) 
Directive on energy end 
use efficiency and energy 
services  

Action Plan on Energy 
efficiency as a follow-up to 
the Green Paper  
Action under the directive 
on integrated pollution 
prevention and control 
(IPPC) on energy 
efficiency 
Intelligent Energy for 
Europe programme / 
Covenant of Mayors 

Public awareness campaign 
on energy efficiency 
Programme for voluntary 
action on motors (Motor 
Challenge)  

2022 

9224 

N/a 

Not known 

N/a 

N/a 

30 16 

25-40 16 

190-29023 

Adopted on 18 May 2010 

Stage of implementation / 
timetable /comments 

In force  

Monitoring and review 

9 implementing measures 
adopted on ecodesign and 8 on 
energy labelling. To be revised 
or complemented by further 
measures. 

In force; National Energy 
Efficiency Action Plans adopted 
in all EU-27. 

Launched Oct 200625. Identifies 
10 priority actions to achieve up 
to 20% energy savings by 2020.  

Reference document on Best 
Available Techniques regarding 
Energy Efficiency finalised. 

Programme for policy support in 
energy efficiency 
Supporting program as part of 
Intelligent Energy for Europe: In 
implementation 
Supporting programme for 
voluntary action on efficient 
motor systems 

EU Handbook developed for 
guidance for increased energy 
efficient public procurement 

170 

6-16 

11.2 (2009-2014) 

 132 

Public procurement 

TOTAL  

193-208 

509.2-619.2 

EN 

14 

   EN 

 
  
  
  
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
 
  
  
Transport 

Policies and measures 
‘Transport’ 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Fuel quality Directive  
Directive on the promotion 
of transport bio-fuels 
Voluntary agreements with 
European, Japanese and 
Korean car manufacturers.  

Strategy for Car CO2 
Infrastructure charging for 
heavy goods (revised 
Eurovignette) 
Shifting the balance of 
transport modes 

Fuel taxation 
Directive on mobile air 
conditioning systems: 
HFCs 
Inclusion of Aviation in 
EU ETS 
Public procurement of 
vehicles 
TOTAL  

Industry & non CO2 gases 

35-4016 

75-8016 

N/a 

N/a 

N/a 

See regulation on 
fluorinated gases 

110-120  

62.526 

5027 

18328 

1.929 
 297.4 

Policies and measures 
‘Industry’ 
Regulation on fluorinated 
gases 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

2330 

IPPC & non-CO2 gases  

60-7016 

Stage of implementation / 
timetable / comments 

First implemented in 1998. 
Revisions adopted in December 
2008 

In force 

Implemented  

Adopted  

Adopted 
Package of measures in 
implementation  
In force  
Focus on EU harmonisation of 
taxation, not on CO2 reduction; 
ongoing review  

In force 
Adopted. Will include all flights 
from 1/01/2012 

Stage of implementation / 
timetable / comments 

In force 
In force 
In 2008 the Directive was 
codified and currently is being 
amended by the Industrial 
Emissions Directive 

EN 

15 

   EN 

 
  
 
  
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
Waste 

Policies and measures 
‘Waste’ 
Landfill Directive 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 
4116 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Waste Framework 
Directive  
Directives on waste 
electrical and electronic 
equipment (WEEE) 

3532 

Integration Research & Development 

Policies and measures 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

R&D framework Program 

N/a 

Competitiveness and 
Innovation Framework 
Programme (CIP) 

Integration Cohesion Policy 

Policies and measures 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Integration climate change 
in structural funds 
&cohesion funds 

N/a 

N/a  

Stage of implementation / 
timetable / comments 

In force 
Adopted.  
Launched December 200531, 
including a revision of the 
original waste directive of 1975, 
revised in 2008. 

In force. Revised directive in 
2008 

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 

In force. Under the 7th 
Framework program (FP7), 
which runs from 2007 to 2013, a 
budget of 50.5 billion euros will 
be allocated over the entire 
period. Over 2.3 billion to 
energy related R&D activities. 
CIP runs from 2007 to 2013 with 
a total budget of 3.6 billion 
euros. The CIP is divided in 
three operational programmes 
two of which are related to 
energy and climate change.  

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 

The Community Strategic 
Guidelines highlight investments 
to promote Kyoto commitments, 
including renewable energy, 
energy efficiency and 
sustainable transport systems as 
eligible areas for support. About 
€ 48 billion are planned to co-
finance projects on climate 
change in the 2007-2013 
Cohesion Policy. 

EN 

16 

   EN 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
Agriculture 

Policies and measures 
‘Agriculture’ 

CAP health check (2003 
reform) 
- Rural development 
policies 
- Market policies 

60-7033 
1233 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission reduction 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 

Adopted. In 2008 the EU 
Commission decided to move to 
new changes to the CAP.  

Rural development policy for 
2007-13 focus on: 

- Improving competitiveness 

- Improving the environment 
- Improving quality of life and 
encourage diversification of the 
rural economy.  

 Abolished as of 2010 

Improved implementation of the 
nitrates Directive  

The European Climate Change 
Programme (ECCP) Working 
Group on Sinks Related to 
Agricultural Soils estimated this 
potential at equivalent to 1.5 to 
1.7% of the EU’s anthropogenic 
CO2 emissions during the first 
commitment period under the 
Kyoto Protocol35 

Rural development policy 
Support scheme for energy 
crops 

N2O from soils 

N/a 

N/a 

1034 

Proposed soil directive  

N/a 

N/a 

EN 

17 

   EN 

 
  
  
  
  
  
 
Forests 

Policies and measures 
‘Forests’ 

Sequestration 
potential in 2010 in 
EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

Sequestration 
potential in 2020 in 
EU-27 (Mt CO2-eq.) 

EU Forest Action Plan  
Afforestation and 
reforestation: 
- Afforestation 
programmes 

- Natural forest expansion 

Forest management 
(various measures) 

N/a 

N/a 

1416 

19 16 

Stage of implementation 
/timetable /comments 
Adopted. The Forest Action Plan 
presented in June 2006 builds on 
the EU’s Forestry Strategy 
adopted in 1998. 

Possibility for support through 
forestry scheme of rural 
development 
Possibility for support through 
forestry scheme of rural 
development, dependent on 
national implementation. 

EN 

18 

   EN 

 
  
  
Table 10: Key figures of the emissions trading scheme for 2005-2007, 2008 and 2009 for EU-27 

Number of installations (a) 

Allocated allowances 

Verified emissions 

2005–
2007 (b) 
6.938 
150 
20 
20 
229 
532 
412 
1.140 
798 
320 
10.559 

1. Combustion installations 
2. Mineral oil refineries 
3. Coke ovens 
4. Metal ore roasting or sintering 
5. Pig iron or steel 
6. Cement clinker or lime 
7. Glass including glass fibre 
8. Ceramic products by firing 
9. Pulp, paper and board 
99. Other activity opted-in 
All EU installations 

Notes: 

2008 

2009 

2005–
2007 

2008 

2009 

2005–
2007 

2008 

2009 

1 000 EUA (c)  

kt CO2-eq. 

7.169 
150 
21 
28 
237 
555 
438 
1.079 
813 
398 
10.888 

7.287 
150 
22 
28 
238 
559 
441 
1.085 
812 
410 
11.032 

1.470.961  1.255.124  1.259.971  1.491.238  1.496.407  1.362.193 
144.309 
15.757 
11.033 
95.423 
150.111 
19.361 
8.990 
27.506 
19.397 
2.107.111  1.949.510  1.959.411  2.071.472  2.100.241  1.854.080 

153.335 
20.989 
17.643 
133.276 
189.029 
22.704 
13.362 
31.177 
22.321 

151.676 
20.857 
17.209 
131.478 
186.884 
20.497 
14.821 
29.769 
7.043 

160.772 
22.789 
25.248 
155.631 
193.715 
22.495 
18.118 
37.138 
245 

151.441 
22.531 
21.928 
184.733 
209.613 
25.152 
18.609 
37.919 
22.458 

151.740 
22.409 
21.995 
184.950 
212.080 
25.533 
19.094 
38.382 
23.257 

Difference between allocated 
allowances and verified 
emissions 
% 

2005–
2007 

1,4% 
-5,7% 
-8,5% 
-31,8% 
-15,5% 
-3,5% 
-8,9% 
-18,2% 
-19,8% 
2777,4% 
-1,7% 

2008 

2009 

19,2% 
1,3% 
-6,8% 
-19,5% 
-27,9% 
-9,8% 
-9,7% 
-28,2% 
-17,8% 
-0,6% 
7,7% 

8,1% 
-4,9% 
-29,7% 
-49,8% 
-48,4% 
-29,2% 
-24,2% 
-52,9% 
-28,3% 
-16,6% 
-5,4% 

(a) All installations which have participated in the scheme are included, even if their account is already closed.  

(b) For this analysis installations have been included if allocated allowances or verified emissions have been published for each year. With this attribute the average values are not the same as in last 
year's report, where averages have been calculated in a different way.  

(c) European Union Allowance. 

Source:  EEA EU ETS data viewer (12 July 2010) 

EN 

19 

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Table 11: Overview on the EU ETS verified emissions and 2nd NAPs  

Member State 

Austria 
Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus 
Czech Republic 
Denmark 
Estonia 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Italy 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Luxembourg 
Malta 
Netherlands 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovak Republic 
Slovenia 
Spain 
Sweden 
United Kingdom 
EU-27  

Average  
2005-2007 
verified 
emissions 

Mt CO2-
eq. per 
year 
32,5 
54,3 
39,2 (b) 
5,2 
84,6 
30,0 
13,4 
40,1 
128,3 
480,1 
71,3 
26,3 
21,8 
226,6 
2,9 
6,4 
2,6 
2,0 
79,0 
207,5 
33,6 
69,6 (b) 
25,1 
8,9 
183,3 
19,4 
250,1 
2.071,5 (c) 

Share of 
EU ETS 
in  
total 
GHG 
emissions 
in 2007 

2008 
verified 
emissions 

Share of  
EU ETS in 
total GHG 
emissions 
in 2008 

2009 
verified 
emissions 

2008-2012 
EU ETS 
cap 
(a) 

CDM / JI 
limit for EU 
ETS 
operators 

% 

37% 
41% 
52% 
55% 
60% 
44% 
70% 
54% 
24% 
51% 
55% 
35% 
31% 
41% 
23% 
24% 
20% 
67% 
39% 
52% 
39% 
46% 
51% 
44% 
43% 
29% 
40% 
43% 

Mt CO2-
eq. per 
year 
32,0 
55,5 
38,3 
5,6 
80,4 
26,5 
13,5 
36,2 
124,1 
472,7 
69,9 
27,2 
20,4 
220,7 
2,7 
6,1 
2,1 
2,0 
83,5 
204,1 
29,9 
64,1 
25,3 
8,9 
163,5 
20,1 
265,1 
2.100,2 

% 

37% 
42% 
52% 
55% 
57% 
42% 
67% 
52% 
24% 
49% 
55% 
37% 
30% 
41% 
23% 
25% 
17% 
68% 
40% 
52% 
38% 
44% 
52% 
42% 
40% 
31% 
42% 
43% 

Mt CO2-
eq. per 
year 
27,3 
46,2 
32,0 
0,1 
73,8 
25,5 
10,3 
34,3 
111,1 
428,2 
63,7 
22,4 
17,2 
184,9 
2,5 
5,8 
2,2 
1,9 
81,1 
191,0 
28,3 
48,6 
21,6 
8,1 
136,9 
17,5 
231,9 
1.854,1 

Mt CO2-
eq. per 
year 
30,7 
58,5 
38,1 
5,2 
86,7 
24,0 
11,8 
37,6 
132,0 
451,5 
68,3 
26,7 
21,3 
201,6 
3,4 
8,6 
2,5 
2,1 
87,5 
205,7 
34,8 
74,1 
32,5 
8,3 
152,2 
22,5 
245,6 
2.073,8 

% 

10,00% 
8,4% 
12,5% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
17,0% 
0,0% 
10,0% 
13,5% 
22,0% 
9,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
15,0% 
10,0% 
20,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
10,0% 
7,0% 
15,8% 
20,6% 
10,0% 
8,0% 

Notes:  
(a) Data on the EU-ETS cap may differ from final values yet to be determined by the European Commission due 
to  the  fact  that  issues  such  as  the  treatment  of  the  new  entrant  reserves  are  still  pending.  For  Denmark  and 
Ireland,  the  ETS  cap  is  reduced  by  the  expected  leftover  units  in  the  new  entrants'  reserve  at  the  end  of  the 
trading period which will not be distributed to operators but used for Kyoto compliance. 
(b) Verified emissions for 2007only as BG and RO did not participate in the EU ETS in 2005 and 2006. 
(c) The total EU-27 figure was calculated on the basis of actual emissions as reported in the CITL and divided by 
the number of 3 years, 2007 emissions for BG and RO were also divided by 3. 
Source: EEA EU ETS data viewer (12 July 2010), EEA GHG data viewer (12 July 2010), National Allocation Plans, NAP 
table decisions  

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Table 12: Planned government use of the Kyoto mechanisms 
Member State  

Planned use 
of Kyoto 
mechanisms  

Type of 
Kyoto 
mechanisms 
(ET, CDM, 
JI)  

Achievement 
of Kyoto 
target 
planned 
through 
domestic 
action only 

Implemented 
use of credits 
at 
government 
level (c) 

Projected 
emission 
reduction 
2008-12 
through the 
use of Kyoto 
mechanisms 

Austria 
Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus (a) 
Czech Republic 
Denmark 
Estonia 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Italy 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Luxembourg 
Malta (a) 
Netherlands 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovakia 
Slovenia 
Spain 
Sweden (b) 
United 
Kingdom 

EU-15 

EU-27 

Yes  
Yes  
No 
No 
No 
Yes  
No 
Yes  
No 
No 
No 
No 
Yes  
Yes  
No 
No 
Yes  
No 
Yes  
No 
Yes  
No 
No 
Yes  
Yes  
No  

No 

Yes  

Yes  

IET, JI, CDM 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
- 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
- 
- 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
- 
- 
IET, JI, CDM 
IET, JI, CDM 
(JI, CDM)  

- 
IET, JI, 
CDM 
IET, JI, 
CDM 

No 
No 
Yes 
na 
Yes 
No  
Yes 
No  
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 
Yes 
No  
No  
Yes 
Yes 
No  
na 
No  
Yes 
No  
Yes 
Yes 
No  
No  
Yes  

Yes 

No  

n.a. 

[Mt CO2 eq. 
per year] 

[Mt CO2 eq. 
per year] 

0,6 
1,0 
0,0 
na 
-27,2 
0,5 
-0,1 
0,2 
0,1 
1,1 
0,0 
-3,4 
2,7 
0,7 
-18,2 
0,0 
0,4 
na 
7,7 
0,0 
0,2 
0,4 
-7,4 
0,0 
10,9 
-0,4 

2,2 

28,0 

-27,9 

9,0 
4,3 
- 
- 
-25,0 
3,9 
0,0 
1,4 
- 
- 
- 
-4,0 
1,7 
17,1 
-8,0 
0,0 
3,8 
- 
13,0 
- 
4,8 
- 
-9,4 
1,0 
57,8 
(2) 

- 

116,7 

71,3 

Budget 

[Mio €  
for 2008-
2012] 
531 
263 
- 
- 
- 
217 
- 
70 
- 
- 
- 
- 
290 
79 
- 
- 
360 
- 
507 
- 
305 
- 
- 
80 
638 
41 
- 

3.301 

3.381 

Notes:  
(a) Cyprus and Malta are non-Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and do not have an emissions target for the period 2008-
2012. 
(b ) Sweden has planned to purchase 2 million AAU per year, but does intend to use them to achieve its commitment under 
the Kyoto Protocol. 
(c) Credits delivered to/sold from party holding account, 2008-2009 average.  
"na" means "not applicable" 
Source: Questionnaires and projection reports submitted under the EC greenhouse gas Monitoring Mechanism, SEF tables 
(26 Mai 2010) and the EEA EU ETS data viewer (12 July 2010) 

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Table 13: Projected net carbon stock changes under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 for the first 
commitment period 

Article 3.3 

Net carbon stock 
change during 
2008–12 

[million tonnes 
CO2 per year] 
-0.7 
No estimate 
available 

Article 3.4 

Net carbon stock 
change during 
2008–12 

[million tonnes 
CO2 per year] 
Not applicable 

Maximum 
allowance for 
forest 
management 
[million tonnes 
CO2 per year] 
Not applicable 

Not applicable 

Not applicable 

Election of 
activities(a) 

None 

None 

Not reported 

None 

Not applicable 

Not applicable 

Total 

[million tonnes 
CO2 per year] 
-0,70 
No estimate 
available 
No estimate 
available 

Austria 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Cyprus 

Czech Republic 

Denmark 

Estonia 

Finland 
France 

Germany 

Greece 
Hungary 
Ireland 

Italy 

Latvia 

Not applicable 
Probably small 
sink 

Not applicable 

FM 

-0,13 

FM, CM, GM 

No estimate 
available 
+ 1.9 to + 2.4 
-1,24 
No estimate 
available 
-0,88 
Probably net sink 
-2,72 
No estimate 
available 

Net sink 

None 

FM 
FM 

FM 

FM 
FM 
None 

FM 

FM 

FM 

None 

NA 
None 

FM 

Lithuania 

Probably net sink 

Luxembourg 

0,00 

Malta 
Netherlands 

Poland 

Portugal 

Not applicable 
-0,11 

Net sink 

-3,36 

FM, CM, GM 

Romania 

Not reported 

FM, 
Revegetation 

Not applicable 
Likely larger than 
max. allowance 
FM: 0.42 
CM+GM: - 1.7 
No estimates 
available 
- 2.5 to - 3.0 
-83,97 

-7,30 

- 2 to - 4 
-4,24 
Not applicable 

Not applicable  Not applicable 

-1,17 

-0,18 

NA 

-0,59 
-3,23 

-4,55 

-0,33 
-1,06 
NA 

-1,17 

-1,65 

No estimate 
available 
-0,59 
-4,47 

-4,55 

-1,21 
-1,06 
-2,72 

-10,20 

-10,19 

-10,19 

No estimates 
available 
No estimates 
available 

-1,25 

-1,03 

Not applicable 

Not applicable 

No estimate 
available 
No estimate 
available 
No estimate 
available 

Not applicable  Not applicable 
Not applicable 

-0,11 

Not applicable 
Not applicable 
Likely larger than 
max. allowance 
FM: - 0.8 
CM+GM: - 0.5 

Not reported 

-3,01 

-0,81 

-4,03 

-3,01 

-4,66 

No estimate 
available 
No estimate 
available 

-1,32 

-5,46 
-2,13 
-4,04 
-42,45 
-49,01 

Slovakia 

Slovenia 

Spain 
Sweden 
United Kingdom 
EU-15 
EU-27 

Net sink 

None 

Not applicable 

Not applicable 

No estimate 
available 
-3,00 
0,60 
-2,68 
-12,05 
-12,05 

FM 

FM, CM 
FM 
FM 
FM, CM, GM 
Not applicable 

-1,32 

-2,46 
-15,00 
-1,69 
-27,66 
-34,22 

-1,32 

-2,46 
-2,13 
-1,36 

Not applicable 

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22 

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Notes:  
Consistent with the reporting of emission inventories a negative sign '-' is used for removals and a positive sign '+' for 
emissions; n.a.: not applicable; n.e.: not estimated. 
(a) FM: forest management; CM: cropland management; GM: grazing land management. 
(b) In addition to accounting for forest management up to the maximum allowance Parties may account for removals from 
forest management to compensate net emissions under Art. 3.3. In Finland and Sweden, removals from forest management 
are projected to exceed the sum of emissions under Art. 3.3. and the maximum allowance for forest management. 
(c) The sum for EU-15 and EU-27 includes emissions and removals from Article 3.4 actvities as indicated by Member States 
with application of the cap for Forest Management. 
Source: Questionnaires and projection reports submitted under the EC greenhouse gas Monitoring Mechanism; The 
European Community's initial report under the Kyoto Protocol (EEA Technical report No 10/2006); Initial reports under the 
Kyoto Protocol of Greece and Romania; Decisions 16/CMP.1 and 8/CMP.2 of the Conference of the Parties serving as the 
Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. 

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Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions per capita of EU-27 Member States for 1990 and 2008 

11,8

9,9

11,6

10,1

12,4

9,4

10,0

10,4

5,2

6,8

7,0

8,5

5,8

7,2

7,2

5,9

7,3

7,4

9,4

9,7

8,2

7,3

9,0

9,0
9,1
9,1

13,5

14,0

13,4

13,5

9,6

10,3

11,9

10,4
10,2
10,4

9,3

10,6
10,2

11,3

9,2

15,6

11,7

13,4

11,7

14,4

12,5

14,2

12,6

12,9

14,1

13,2

13,6

15,1

15,6
15,3

18,8

26,0

25,8

34,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

t CO2 per capita

2008

1990

EU-27

EU-15

EU-12

Latvia

Romania

Sweden

Malta 

Lithuania

Hungary

Portugal

France

Spain

Slovakia

Italy

Bulgaria

United Kingdom

Poland

Austria

Slovenia

Greece

Germany

Denmark

Belgium

Netherlands

Cyprus 

Finland

Czech Republic

Estonia

Ireland

Luxembourg

Source: EEA 

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24 

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Technical notes 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

(5) 

(6) 

In  the  Council  decision  (2002/358/EC)  on  the  approval  by  the  EU  of  the  Kyoto 
Protocol the various commitments of the Member States are expressed as percentage 
changes from the base-year. In 2006 the respective emission levels were expressed in 
terms  of  tonnes  of  CO2-equivalent  in  the  Commission  Decision  2006/944/EC.  In 
connection with Council decision 2002/358/EC, the Council of Environment Ministers 
and  the  Commission  have,  in  a  joint  statement,  noted  “that  the  respective  emission 
levels  referred  to  in  the  decision  shall  be  expressed  in  terms  of  tonnes  of  carbon 
dioxide  equivalent,  …,  taking  into  account  the  assumptions  relating  to  base  year 
emissions  as  also  reflected  in  the  relevant  statements  to  the  Council  minutes  to  the 
Council  Conclusions  of  16-17  June  1998.  …”.  Following  the  UNFCCC  reviews  of 
Member  States'  ‘initial  reports’  during  2007  and  2008  and  pursuant  to  Article  3, 
paragraphs 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol, the base-year emissions for the EU-15 have 
been fixed to 4 265.5 million tonnes CO2 equivalents. 

The  Annual  European  Community  greenhouse  gas  inventory  1990–2008  and 
inventory report 2010 (EEA, Technical report No 6/2010). Under the EU monitoring 
mechanism decision (Decision 280/2004), all MS submitted all or almost all Common 
Reporting Format (CRF) tables, (i.e., more than 90 %) for 1990–2008. 

Based on PRIMES/GAINS and national projections for Denmark and Ireland. The use 
of unused allowances from the new entrant reserve under the EU ETS was not taken 
into account in the analysis. 

Cyprus and Malta do not have targets under the Kyoto Protocol  

For 
http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/recession-accelerates-the-decline-in 

information 

further 

EEA 

see 

the 

website: 

The  six  corresponding  legislative  acts  were  published  in  the  Official  Journal  of  the 
European Union in June 2009(5.06.2009 L 40), and are already in force. 

Directive  2009/29/EC  expands,  strengthens  and  improves  the  functioning  of  the  EU  ETS 
post-2012. From 2013 an emission cap will be set at EU level and cut each year to reach -21% 
in  2020  (comparing  to  2005  levels).  The  auctioning  system  of  allowances  will  be  increased 
and  ambitious  ex-ante  benchmark  for  free  allocation  will  be  introduced.  Industrial 
installations not subject to carbon leakage will be required to buy 20% of allowances in 2013 
rising to 70% in 2020 and 100% in 2027, while those identified to be exposed to the risk of 
carbon leakage will receive 100% of the quantity determined by benchmarks for free. Use of 
offset  credits  from  outside  of  the  EU  is  allowed  but  this  amount  remains  below  half  of  the 
reduction effort in order to ensure a sufficient level of emissions reductions inside the EU. (OJ 
5.06.2009 L 140) 

Decision  406/2009/EC  sets  national  commitments  to  reduce  GHG  emissions  which  are 
outside  the  scope  of  the  EU  ETS  (small-scale  emitters:  transport,  buildings,  agriculture, 
waste),  which  represent  some  60%  of  total  GHG  emissions  in  the  EU.  The  decision  sets 
legally  binding  annual  targets  in  the  period  2013-2020  for  each  MS  ensuring  that  by  2020 
emissions from these sectors will be reduced at EU level by 10% comparing to 2005 levels. 
The  efforts  (targets  ranging  from  -20%  to  +20%)  are  shared  between  MS  according  to 
differences in GDP per capita. Less wealthy Member States will be allowed to increase their 
emissions  in  non-ETS  sectors  by  up  to  20%  above  2005  levels.  These  targets  do,  however, 
still  represent  a  cap  on  their  emissions  and  will  still  require  a  reduction  effort  compared  to 
business as usual. By contrast, the wealthier Member States, with GDP/capita above the EU 

EN 

25 

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average,  will  have  to  reduce  emissions,  up  to  a  maximum  figure  of  -20%  below  2005.  (OJ 
5.06.2009 L 140) 

Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of renewable energy sets legally binding 
targets  for  each  Member  State  in  order  to  reach  the  EU  target  of  20%  share  of  renewable 
energy in the EU’s final energy consumption and 10% in transport by 2020. Also a 10% share 
of renewable energy sources in transport by 2020 target was adopted. (OJ 5.06.2009 L 140) 

Directive 2009/31/EC on geological storage of CO2 provides a legal framework to manage 
possible  environmental  risks  and  liability  issues  and  includes  a  long-term  incentive  for 
investment in demonstration projects to capture and geologically store CO2. (OJ 5.06.2009 L 
140) 

Regulation  (EC)  No  443/2009  sets  standards  for  CO2  emissions  from  new  passenger  cars, 
which  will  ensure  that  emissions  from  the  new  car  fleet  are  reduced  to  an  average  of  130g 
CO2/km by 2015. A stringent long-term target of 95g CO2/km by 2020 was also set. Estimate 
of total GHG emission savings per year amounts to 50 Mt CO2 eq. (OJ 5.06.2009 L 140) 

Fuel quality directive 2009/30/EC puts an obligation on suppliers to reduce greenhouse gas 
emission from entire  fuel  production chain by  6% by 2020. A review in 2012 will consider 
increasing  the  target  to  10%  by  2020.  Estimate  of  total  GHG  emission  savings  per  year 
amounts to 62.5 Mt CO2-eq. (OJ 5.06.2009 L 140) 

Directive  2008/101/EC  included  aviation  into  EU  ETS.  It  is  estimated  that  a  total  of  183 
million tonnes of CO2 will be saved per year on the flights covered by the scheme equal to a 
46%  reduction  by  2020  compared  with  business  as  usual.  From  1  January  2012  flights 
between EU airports and all flights arriving or departing form the airports in the EU will be 
covered by the system. (OJ 13.01.2009 L 8) 

(7) 

(8) 

(9) 

Commission  Decision  of  24  December  2009  determining,  pursuant  to  Directive 
2003/87/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council,  a  list  of  sectors  and 
subsectors which are deemed to be exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage (OJ 
5.1.2010) 

Commission Decision of 9 July 2010 on the Community-wide quantity of allowances 
to  be  issued  under  the  EU  Emission  Trading  Scheme  for  2013  (2010/384/EU)  (OJ 
10.7.2010 L175) 

Commission Decision of 8 June 2010 amending Decision 2007/589/EC as regards the 
inclusion  of  monitoring  and  reporting  guidelines  for  greenhouse  gas  emissions  from 
the  capture,  transport  and  geological  storage  of  carbon  dioxide  (2010/345/EU)  (OJ 
22.6.2010) 

(10)  Commission  Regulation  (EU)  No  82/2010  of  28  January  2010  amending  Regulation 
(EC)  No  748/2009  on  the  list  of  aircraft  operators  which  performed  an  aviation 
activity  listed  in  Annex  I  to  Directive  2003/87/EC  on  or  after  1  January  2006 
specifying  the  administering  Member  State  for  each  aircraft  operator  (OJ  29.1.2010 
L25) 

(11)  Commission  Regulation  (EU)  No  606/2010  of  9  July  2010  on  the  approval  of  a 
simplified  tool  developed  by  the  European  organisation  for  air  safety  navigation 
(Eurocontrol)  to  estimate  the  fuel  consumption  of  certain  small  emitting  aircraft 
operators (OJ 10.7.2010 L175) 

(12)  CITL, 12 July 2010 

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26 

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(13)  The revised directive on EU ETS allows existing operators (from 2013) to use JI and 
CDM credits in such a way that the overall use of credits is limited to 50% of the EU-
wide reductions below the 2005 levels over the period 2008-2020 and for new sectors 
and  aviation  50%  of  the  reductions  below  the  2005  levels  over  the  period  from  the 
date  of  their  inclusion  in  the  EU  ETS  to  2020.  This  amounts  to  an  overall  JI/CDM 
limit of roughly 6.5% of the EU-wide cap over the period 2008-2020.The exact limits 
for each installation will still need to be determined but the Directive already grants to 
existing operators an access to credits of at least of 11% of their allocation during the 
period  2008-2012.  In  addition,  new  entrants  and  new  sectors  including  aviation 
receive minimum levels of access to JI and CDM credits.  

(14)  Base year level of GHG emissions for Croatia has not been decided yet and the case 

under the Executive Branch of the Compliance Committee is ongoing  

(15)  For  further  details  see  the  COMMISSION  STAFF  WORKING  DOCUMENT 
SEC(2010)  650  of  26.5.2010  accompanying  the  COMMUNICATION  FROM  THE 
COMMISSION  TO  THE  EUROPEAN  PARLIAMENT,  THE  COUNCIL,  THE 
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE 
OF  THE  REGIONS:  Analysis  of  options  to  move  beyond  20%  greenhouse  gas 
emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage{COM(2010) 265 final}. 
Background  information  and  analysis,  Part  II  (in  particular  section  3.2  and  Annex 
10.4); http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/26-05-2010working_doc2.pdf 

(16)  Second 

progress 
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/second_eccp_report.pdf 

ECCP 

report 

April 

2003 

(17)  Directive on the promotion of energy from renewable sources, Citizens' Summary, 23 

January 2008 

(18)  The original figure refers to a cumulative estimate of 7 MtCO2eq by 2020.  

(19)  Proposal  for  a  Directive  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  on  the 
promotion  of  cogeneration  based  on  a  useful  heat  demand  in  the  internal  energy 
market  

(20)  COM (2005) 628 final “Biomass Action Plan, December 2005” 

(21)  Decision No 1229/2003/EC, Regulation (EC) No 807/2004, Directive 2003/54/EC & 

2003/55/EC, Regulation (EC) No 1228/2003 

(22)  COM (2004)366 – final “The share of renewable energy in the EU, May 2004 

(23)  Energy  performance  of  buildings  –  impact  assessment  on  the  revised  directive 

SEC(2008) 2864 

(24)  Proposal  for  a  Directive  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  on  End-Use 

Energy Efficiency and Energy Services, COM(2003) 739 final 

(25)  COM(2006)545 – final “Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential” 

(26)  Questions  and  answers  on  the  EU  strategy  to  reduce  CO2  emissions  from  cars, 

MEMO/07/46.  

(27)  Questions  and  answers  on  the  EU  strategy  to  reduce  CO2  emissions  from  cars, 

MEMO/07/46.  

(28) 

Inclusion  of  Aviation  in  the  EU  Greenhouse  Gas  Emissions  Trading  Scheme  (EU 
ETS), Summary of the Impact Assessment, SEC(2006) 1685 

EN 

27 

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(29)  Directive  on  the  promotion  of  clean  and  energy  efficient  road  transport  vehicles, 

2005/0283 (COD) 

(30)  Regulation proposal on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases, COM (2003) 492 final; 
estimated  emissions  reductions  are  due  to  both  the  implementation  of  F-gases 
Regulation  (842/2006)  and  the  MAC  Directive  (2006/40/EC-  for  air  conditioning 
systems in motor vehicles)  

(31)  Thematic Strategy on Waste Prevention, COM (2005) 666 and 667 (final) 

(32)  Value  in  2011  -  Directive  on  waste  electrical  and  electronic  equipment  (WEEE), 

(recast) Impact Assessment, {COM(2008) 810}, {SEC(2008) 2933} 

(33)  From  ECCP  working  group  on  agriculture  and  sub-group  on  carbon  sinks  related  to 
agricultural  soils.  Some  of  potential  for  bioenergy  crops  will  be  covered  within 
potential from biofuels, cogeneration from biomass, further promotion of RES-H etc. 

(34)  EEA, 

Europe 
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_5/TPReport2008Annexes.pdf  

Projections 

Trends 

2008, 

GHG 

and 

in 

(35)  Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, COM(2006)231 

(36)  Civil  domestic  passenger  and  freight  traffic  that  departs  and  arrives  in  the  same 

country 

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28 

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