REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of the financial resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 (interim report)
Date: 2010-08-16
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU financing, agricultural statistics, common agricultural policy, crop yield, data collection, exchange of information, land use, remote sensing

EN 

EN 

   EN 

 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 16.8.2010 
COM(2010) 436 final 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT 

on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of the financial 
resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 
(interim report) 

SEC(2010) 984 

EN 

   EN 

 
 
  
TABLE OF CONTENTS 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of 
the financial resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 
(interim report) ........................................................................................................................... 3 

1. 

2. 

3. 

3.1. 

3.2. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 3 

The MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System................................................................ 3 

Implementation ............................................................................................................ 6 

Overall implementation................................................................................................ 6 

Implementation with regard to Article 1 of Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008..... 6 

3.2.1.  Aims of the implemented measures (Article 1(1))....................................................... 6 

3.2.2.  Measures to be implemented (Article 1(2)) ................................................................. 7 

4. 

5. 

Deliverables and outputs .............................................................................................. 8 

Budget resource use ..................................................................................................... 9 

EN 

2 

   EN 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT 

on the implementation of the remote sensing applications and on the use of the financial 
resources made available to it under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 
(interim report) 

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

Detailed  information  on  the  use  of  agricultural  land  and  the  conditions  of  arable 
crops is essential to the quality of yield and agricultural production forecasts. Such 
information is of particular use for market monitoring and the management of related 
market measures under the single Common Market Organisation. In this context, the 
European  Union  has  made  substantial  efforts  to  develop  and  improve  innovative 
technologies  and  models  specifically  related  to  remote-sensing  applications.  The 
experience  accumulated  has  shown  that  remote-sensing  provides  independent 
information  of  high  quality  which  cannot  be  obtained  from  traditional  agricultural 
statistics and forecasting systems.  

Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  78/20081  provides  the  legal  framework  for  these 
remote-sensing activities for the period 2008-2013. 

The  remote-sensing  applications  supported  under  this  framework  provide  useful 
information  to  the  European  Commission  but  also  to  interested  Member  States, 
research institutes and other users, through a large dissemination of products. Since 
its inception, the system has been constantly improved. Beyond the primary objective 
to  produce  harvest  yield  and  production  forecasts,  the  system  also  provides  useful 
insights into other fields relevant to the EU agriculture such as climate change issues. 

The  present  report  has  been  drawn  pursuant  to  Article  4  of  Regulation  (EC) 
No 78/2008  which  provides  that  the  Commission  shall  submit  an  interim  report  no 
later than 31 July 2010 on the implementation of the remote-sensing measures and on 
the use of the financial resources made available to it under the Regulation. 

2. 

THE MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM  

The system of production of crop harvest yield forecasts started in 1988 as a 10-year 
pilot  project.  The  activity,  which  was  then  called  Monitoring  Agriculture  with 
is 
Remote  Sensing  (then  abbreviated  as  MARS-STAT,  now 
AGRI4CAST),  concentrated  on  the  assessment  of  crop  yields  and  production 
volumes  of  various  crops  within  the  EU,  on  the  basis  of  meteorological  analysis, 
agro-meteorological  simulated  crop  growth  indicators,  low-resolution  satellite  data 

the  acronym 

1 

Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  78/2008  of  21  January  2008  on  the  measures  to  be  undertaken  by  the 
Commission  in  2008-2013  making  use  of  the  remote-sensing  applications  developed  within  the 
framework  of  the  common  agricultural  policy,  Official  Journal  of  the  European  Union,  L  25  of  30 
January 2008, p. 1. 

EN 

3 

   EN 

                                                 
and statistical analysis using the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS). 
From 1999 onwards this activity was implemented under the legal basis of Decision 
1445/2000/EC2 for the period 1999-2003 and its extension for the period 2004-2007 
with  Decision  2066/2003/EC3.  Since  2008  and  until  2013,  this  activity  is 
implemented under Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008. The system is operated in 
the  Institute  for  the  Protection  and  Security  of  the  Citizen  (IPSC)  of  the  Joint 
Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra. 

The MCYFS is a complex, integrated analysis tool addressing the objectives which 
are  spelled  out  in  the  Regulation,  specifically  the  monitoring  of  crop  conditions, 
yields and agricultural production. 

includes:  1) 

The system consists of several independent modules, which are integrated to monitor 
crop behaviour and produce crop yield forecasts. From a technical point of view, the 
MCYFS 
the  maintenance  of  a  meteorological  database  (see 
Article 1(2)(a) of the Regulation); 2) the application of agro-meteorological models 
(see  Article  1(2)(d));  3)  the  processing  of  low  resolution  satellite  data  (see 
Article 1(2)(a));  4)  statistical  analyses  and  yield  forecasts  of  the  main  crops  at 
national level across the EU (see Article 1(2)(b)) as well as visualization tools. 

The MCYFS is run operationally on an area covering the whole European Continent, 
the Maghreb countries and Turkey. The crops covered by the simulation models are 
soft  wheat,  durum  wheat,  winter  and  spring  barley,  grain  maize,  rapeseeds, 
sunflower, potato, sugar beet, field beans, pastures and rice. 

More detailed information concerning the system and its outputs can be found in the 
accompanying Commission Staff Working Document. 

(1) Meteorological database 

Meteorological  data  are  collected  from  meteorological  stations  throughout  Europe. 
They  are  quality  checked  and  further  processed  and  analysed.  As  such  they  can  be 
used to trigger risk warnings (e.g. detection of abnormal weather conditions during a 
given  month).  Furthermore  weather  forecast  data  from  the  European  Centre  for 
Medium-Range  Weather  Forecasts  is  analysed  to  prepare  outlooks  on  weather 
conditions affecting agricultural land. 

(2) Agro-meteorological models used for crop growth simulation 

Agro-meteorological  models  are  run  to  convert  the  meteorological  data  into 
estimations  on  crop  biomass  production.  The  tools  used  are  the  Crop  Growth 
Monitoring  System  (the  World  Food  Study  model  -  WOFOST  -  adapted  to  the 
European scale), the model Lingra used for pastures and the Water Accounting Rice 
Model (WARM). 

2 

3 

Decision  1445/2000/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  22  May  2000  on  the 
application  of  aerial-survey  and  remote-sensing  techniques  to  the  agricultural  statistics  for  1999  to 
2003, Official Journal of the European Communities L 163 of 4 July 2000, p. 1. 
Decision 2066/2003/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 10 November 2003 on the 
continued  application  of  areal-survey  and  remote-sensing  techniques  to  the  agricultural  statistics  for 
2004 to 2007 and amending Decision 1445/2000/EC, Official Journal of the European Union L 309 of 
26 November 2003, p. 9. 

EN 

4 

   EN 

                                                 
Additional  information,  such  as  soil  parameters,  crop  calendars,  crop  practices  and 
crop  parameters,  is  utilised  to  produce  the  simulations.  At  this  level,  many  crop 
specific indicators/predictors (e.g. potential biomass) are produced and transferred to 
the  statistical  analysis  to  support  the  production  of  a  quantitative  yield  forecast. 
These elements also contribute to the assessment of crop conditions (Article 1(1)(b) 
of  the  Regulation).  Examples  are  maps  indicating  extreme  temperature  at  a  given 
crop  stage,  simulations  of  biomass  and  grain  production,  estimations  of  actual  soil 
moisture reserve, the crop development stage in a given month, and the divergence 
from the long-term average at a given decade or period within the growing season for 
any agro-meteorological indicator. 

(3) Low resolution satellite data  

Remote-sensing  applications  feed  into  the  system  at  all  levels  and  contribute  to 
improve the agricultural forecasting models as well as to establish regionally-based 
models.  Information  from  meteorological  satellites  is  used  in  addition  to  the  data 
delivered  by  meteorological  stations  (e.g.  radiation  measured  by  satellites  at  the 
resolution  level  of  5  km).  The  remote-sensing  information  is  processed  to  produce 
“measured”  vegetation 
the  agro-
meteorological  indicators  and  used  for  the  statistical  analysis.  Low  to  medium 
resolution  satellite  sensors  are  utilised:  SPOT  Vegetation/NOAA-AVHRR  (about 
1 km resolution) and MODIS (about 300-500 m resolution)4. 

indicators  which  can  be  compared  with 

(4) Statistical analysis 

The  indicators  obtained  from  the  meteorological  database,  the  agro-meteorological 
database and the remote sensing database are compared to the yield time series and 
analysed  with  statistical  methods  (e.g.  regression  or  scenario  analysis).  The  final 
results are quantitative yield forecasts which, together with the analysis of the above-
mentioned  outputs,  are  published  in  the  MARS  bulletins.  Data  available  in  the 
system cover a long period of time, with series starting from 1975. 

(5) Visualization tools and dissemination of outputs  

information,  agro-meteorological 

information, 
The  databases  (meteorological 
remote-sensing  information)  can  be  explored  by  users  via  information  tools.  The 
activity  AGRI4CAST  maintains  a  web  portal  where  remote-sensing  data  can  be 
screened  and  downloaded  and  a  portal  where  the  meteorological  and  agro-
meteorological information can be viewed and downloaded in the form of electronic 
maps.  It  is  also  possible  to  download  the  analysis  on  crop  conditions  and  yield 
estimates. 

All  elements  listed  above  are  utilised  for  the  preparation  of  bulletins  and  specific 
studies on climatic conditions (see Article 1(2)(c)). They provide the analyses of the 
crop situation in different regions of the EU, maps of weather and crop indicators and 
yield expectations. The MARS Bulletin is published almost monthly during the main 
growing season on paper and on the internet.  

4 

The abbreviation SPOT stands for "Satellite pour l'Observation de la Terre", NOAA stands for National 
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and AVHRR for Advanced very high Resolution Radiometer, 
MODIS stands for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. 

EN 

5 

   EN 

                                                 
3. 

IMPLEMENTATION  

3.1. 

Overall implementation  

For  the  continuation  of  the  operational  services  from  2008  until  2013  according  to 
Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  78/2008,  a  new  project,  called  MARSOP3,  has  been 
launched.  It  focuses  on  the  provision  of  operational  near-real  time  products  to  the 
JRC  for  the  monitoring  of  agricultural  production  and  yield  in  Europe.  In  August 
2007 a call for tender (Operational activities for MARS actions (MARSOP3) 2008-
2013,  Contract  Notice  N°  2007/S  154-191094)  was  published  in  the  supplement  of 
the Official Journal of the European Union. 

After evaluation of the offer for Lot I (meteorological data) and Lot II (acquisition 
and  processing  of  satellite  data)  and  favourable  opinion  of  the  Public  Procurement 
Advisory Group, a contract was signed with a consortium led by Alterra BV. 

On  the  basis  of  the  operational  products  delivered  within  this  contract,  the  JRC 
carries  out  the  analysis  of  crop  conditions  and  prepares  the  yield  and  production 
estimates.  These  are  made  available  to  the  European  Commission,  Member  States 
and EU citizens. 

3.2. 

Implementation with regard to Article 1 of Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 

Article  1  of  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  78/2008  spells  out  the  objectives  with 
regard to the implementation of remote-sensing measures (Article 1(1)) and provides 
details  on  the  measures  to  be  undertaken  (Article  1(2)).  For  ease  of  reference,  the 
following description of the implementation of the measures follows the structure of 
Article 1. 

3.2.1.  Aims of the implemented measures (Article 1(1)) 

Article 1(1)(a): management of agricultural markets 

The activity delivers independent, timely, scientific and traceable crop yield forecasts 
for all Member States and EU neighbouring countries for a selection of arable crops. 
This  information  is  utilised  by  the  Commission  services  for  the  following  main 
purposes:  1)  update  of  crop  supply  balance  sheets;  2)  assessment  of  climatic 
conditions  and  potential  impacts  of  particular  weather  events  in  Member  States  or 
regions (e.g. impact of a late frost event); 3) monitoring of crop conditions in third 
countries.  AGRI4CAST  yield  forecasts  are  also  provided  to  the  Early  Estimate 
System of Eurostat. 

Independence and reliability of the outputs prepared by AGRI4CAST are viewed as 
important assets by Commission services. The statistical analysis performed with the 
crop growth indicators is transparent, traceable and stored for all the crop simulation 
and  years.  A  set  of  statistical  indicators  (e.g.  root  mean  square  error  for  different 
confidence intervals, standard deviation) is provided for each of the models. At the 
end of the forecasting campaign an error analysis is performed which compares the 
crop  yield  forecasts  with  the  actual  observed  yields  to  quantify  the  yield  forecast 
error  and  to  evaluate  the  forecasting  performance.  For  the  sake  of  illustration,  the 
overall error, measured as mean absolute forecast percentage error for the EU-27 in 

EN 

6 

   EN 

2007 and 2008 across all months has been 1.6% for all cereals together. The target is 
an error below 3%. 

Article 1(1)(b): monitoring of crop conditions and estimates 

Besides  yield  forecasts,  crop  conditions  are  monitored  closely  throughout  the 
growing  season.  Meteorological  and  remote-sensing  information  is  analysed  and 
linked  to  relevant  crop  information  based  on  the  results  of  biophysical  modelling 
(e.g.  impact  of  a  hot  wave  or  a  cold  shock  at  certain  crop  development  stages). 
Furthermore,  outputs  of  the  crop  growth  model  are  directly  used  to  assess  the  crop 
conditions  (e.g.  simulated  leaf  area  index  or  simulated  biomass).  This  monitoring 
covers the EU and applies to all crops listed in section 2. 

Article 1(1)(c): promotion of access to the estimates  

An open access to the various outputs is guaranteed by the websites maintained by 
the  JRC  and  by  the  MARSOP3  consortium.  The  MARSOP  website  offers  a  wide 
range of information (results from the applied remote-sensing measures, crop growth 
model outputs, links to the bulletins). Satellite data and images are organised into an 
image  server  where  the  data  can  be  viewed  and  downloaded.  It  is  also  possible  to 
request and download meteorological data from the MARSOP website. 

Article  1(1)(d):  ensuring  the  technological  follow-up  of  the  agro-meteorological 
system 

The JRC performs a constant technical follow up which ensures the continuity of the 
system and guarantees the scientific robustness of the methodologies applied such as 
the  interpolation  of  the  meteorological  data  onto  a  raster,  the  derivation  of  remote-
sensing  measures  to  describe  the  growing  behaviour  of  crops  or  the  statistical 
analysis performed to obtain the crop yield estimates. 

3.2.2.  Measures to be implemented (Article 1(2)) 

Article 1(2)(a): collection and purchase of meteorological and satellite data 

The  collection  and  purchase  of  meteorological  data  comprises  3 655  stations 
delivering information on weather parameters that are fed into the MCYFS on a daily 
basis.  This  service  is  maintained  on  a  permanent  basis.  Freely  available  remote 
sensing  data  from  low  and  medium  resolution  satellites  (1  km  to  300  m  pixel 
resolution)  devoted  to  vegetation  monitoring  are  also  acquired,  stored,  further 
processed and analysed. 

Article 1(2)(b): spatial data infrastructure and website 

Spatial data infrastructure comprises the technology, standards, human resources and 
related  activities  necessary  to  acquire,  process,  distribute,  use,  maintain  and  store 
spatial data. This infrastructure has been put in place with the MCYFS and the teams 
involved at the JRC and under the MARSOP3 contract. It covers spatial data sets for 
the  whole  of  Europe  in  different  scales.  The  data  is  processed  to  account  for  the 
needs of crop condition monitoring and forecasting of crop production. The outputs 
and information resulting from the different sources (e.g. remote-sensing) are made 
available via different websites and web portals. 

EN 

7 

   EN 

The infrastructure complies with the framework set by the Infrastructure for Spatial 
Information  in  the  European  Community  (INSPIRE)  Directive5:  the  spatial  data  is 
geo-referenced  according  to  the  INSPIRE  projection,  the  metadata  description 
follows the INSPIRE principles and will be further harmonized. 

Article 1(2)(c): specific studies on climatic conditions  

The system allows the preparation of specific studies on climatic conditions thanks to 
the large array of information available covering all relevant aspects. The following 
specific studies were carried out since Council Regulation (EC) No 78/2008 entered 
into force:  

•  Analysis  of  the  impact  of  spring-summer  drought  and  abundant  rain  in  August 

2008 on winter cereals production in Latvia; 

•  Analysis of the impact of extreme weather conditions during several days of July 

and August 2008 in Slovenia on agriculture; 

•  Water availability for rice growing in Spain in 2008 (analysis of cumulated rain 

fall); 

•  Analysis of the impact of 2009 winter frost events on winter cereals in Europe. 

Article 1(2)(d): updating of agro-meteorological and economic models 

Besides  the  operational  running  of  the  system,  models  and  related  databases  are 
updated continuously. The database contains currently 2.5 terra bytes of information. 
Since  the  Council  Regulation  entered  into  force  major  improvements  have  taken 
place:  the  meteorological  station  network  has  been  densified  to  ensure  a  better 
monitoring system; the resolution of the former 50 km x 50 km grid for the spatial 
analysis  has  been  increased  to  25  km  x  25  km;  new  crop  calibrations  have  been 
performed; and a new database and software version have been released. 

4. 

DELIVERABLES AND OUTPUTS 

The  European  Commission,  Member  States  and  other  interested  stakeholders  are 
provided with different deliverables which can be grouped into reports and bulletins 
on  the  one  hand  and  information  services  and  data  on  the  other  hand.  All  products 
are made available electronically (Article 2 of the Regulation) and partially on paper 
format. 

Reports and Bulletins 

The  crop  monitoring  bulletin  for  Europe  offers,  in  near  real  time  and  operational 
context, information and analyses on crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting. 
Countries  covered  are  those  of  the  EU  and  neighbouring  regions  (Maghreb,  Black 
Sea  area).  The  crops  covered  are  soft  wheat,  durum  wheat,  winter  barley,  spring 

5 

Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 March 2007 establishing an 
Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community (INSPIRE), Official Journal of the 
European Union L 108 of 25 April 2007, p. 1. 

EN 

8 

   EN 

                                                 
barley,  grain  maize,  rapeseeds,  sunflower,  sugar  beet  and  potato.  A  full  analysis  is 
published on the internet in general six times per year and supplemented by updated 
yield  estimates  two  to  three  times  per  year.  Dedicated  bulletins  for  the  EU  are 
prepared  for  pastures  and  rice.  Updates  and  reviews  of  agro-meteorological 
conditions are provided between the full analysis bulletins (10-12 times per year). 

All these publications are made available via the internet but are also available upon 
request in paper format. 

Information services and data 

A  large  variety  of  information  about  the  current  agricultural  production  season  in 
Europe  and  other  important  agricultural  areas  in  the  world  is  offered  on  the 
MARSOP  web  viewer  and  pages.  Available  products  include  graphs  and  maps  of 
weather indicators based on observations and numerical weather models, graphs and 
maps of crop indicators based on agro-meteorological models and graphs and maps 
of vegetation indices and cumulated dry matter based on remote sensing images. 

5. 

BUDGET RESOURCE USE 

Table  1.  Use  of  financial  resources  under  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No 78/2008 
in 2008 and 2009 (payment credits, in €) 

LOT 1 / phase 1 

LOT 1 / phase 2  
Additional 
meteorological 
stations 
LOT 1 
LOT 2 / phase 1 

for 

and 

Lot 2 / phase 2 
MARS 
Database 
information 
technology  (IT) 
support 
TOTAL 

2008 
Amount 

Short description 

97 298 

MARS DB and 
information 
systems 
maintenance and 
development 

2009 
Amount 
1 016 084 

283 185 
67 800 

Short description 
Interim and final 
payment 
Interim payment 
Near real time 
stations (more 
than 250) 

387 720 

Interim and final 
payment 
Interim payment 
137 989 
477 562  MARS DB and 

information 
systems 
maintenance and 
development 

97 298 

2 370 340 

Lot 1 covers the procurement of meteorological and weather forecast data (including 
the  densifying  of  network  of  meteorological  stations).  It  covers  the  operational  run 
and maintenance of the crop growth models operated within the MCYFS. Results in 
the form of database updates and maps are delivered to the database at the JRC daily 
or every ten days. Appropriate tools for exploitation of the results are maintained and 
developed. Maintenance and improvement of  MARSOP  website  is  also  part  of  this 
lot together with overall coordination and management. 

EN 

9 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Lot 2 covers the processing of remote-sensing data. The work performed covers all 
data enhancement steps between the acquisition of the raw imagery and the delivery 
of 10-daily composites (data ingestion, calibration, etc.). 

Mars database and IT support: the MCYFS calls for the provision of IT services to 
ensure a timely production of bulletins. Work performed covers the management and 
maintenance of the database with all the remote sensing data, the meteorological data 
and  the  agro-meteorological  indicators.  Development  and  maintenance  of  analysis 
tools and websites are part of this component. 

EN 

10 

   EN