Commission Opinion on the existence of an excessive deficit in Bulgaria
Date: 2010-07-06
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: Bulgaria, budget deficit, public debt, public finance

EN 

EN 

   EN 

 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 6.7.2010 
SEC(2010) 881 final 

COMMISSION OPINION 

on the existence of an excessive deficit in Bulgaria 

EN 

   EN 

 
 
  
COMMISSION OPINION 

on the existence of an excessive deficit in Bulgaria 

THE  APPLICATION  OF  THE  STABILITY  AND  GROWTH  PACT  IN  THE  CURRENT 
CRISIS SITUATION 

1. 

2. 

Many EU countries are presently facing general government deficits above the 3% of 
GDP reference value set in the Treaty. The often strong deterioration in the deficit as 
well  as  the  debt  positions  must  be  seen  in  the  context  of  the  unprecedented  global 
financial crisis and economic downturn in 2008/09. Several factors are at play. First, 
the economic downturn brings about declining tax revenue and rising social benefit 
expenditure  (e.g.  unemployment  benefits).  Second,  recognising  that  budgetary 
policies  have  an  important  role  to  play  in  the  current  extraordinary  economic 
situation,  the  Commission  called  for  a  fiscal  stimulus  in  its  November  2008 
European  Economic  Recovery  Plan  (EERP),  endorsed  by  the  European  Council  in 
December.  The  Plan  explicated  that  the  stimulus  should  be  timely,  targeted  and 
temporary and differentiated across Member States to reflect their different positions 
in terms of public finance sustainability and competitiveness and should be reversed 
when economic conditions improve. Finally, several countries have taken measures 
to stabilise the financial sector, some of which have impacted on the debt position or 
constitute a risk of higher deficits and debt in the future, although some of the costs 
of the government support could be recouped in the future. 

The  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  requires  the  Commission  to  initiate  the  excessive 
deficit procedure (EDP) whenever the deficit of a Member State exceeds the 3% of 
GDP  reference  value.  The  amendments  to  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  in  2005 
aimed  at  ensuring  that  in  particular  the  economic  and  budgetary  background  was 
taken into account fully in all steps in the EDP. In this way, the Stability and Growth 
Pact provides the framework supporting government policies for a prompt return to 
sound  budgetary  positions  taking  account  of  the  economic  situation,  and  thereby 
ensuring long-term sustainability of public finances. 

LEGAL BACKGROUND 

3. 

4. 

1 

Article  126  of  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union  lays  down  an 
excessive  deficit  procedure  (EDP).  This  procedure  is  further  specified  in  Council 
Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 “on speeding up  and clarifying the implementation of 
the excessive deficit procedure”1, which is part of the Stability and Growth Pact. 

According  to  Article  126(2)  of  the  Treaty,  the  Commission  has  to  monitor 
compliance  with  budgetary  discipline  on  the  basis  of  two  criteria,  namely:  (a) 
whether  the  ratio  of  the  planned  or  actual  government  deficit  to  gross  domestic 
product  (GDP)  exceeds  the  reference  value  of  3%  (unless  either  the  ratio  has 

OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6. The report also takes into account the “Specifications on the implementation 
of the Stability and Growth Pact and guidelines on the format and content of stability and convergence 
programmes”, endorsed by the ECOFIN Council of 10 November 2009, available at 
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/legal_texts/index_en.htm. 

EN 

2 

   EN 

                                                 
 
5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

declined substantially and continuously and reached a level that comes close to the 
reference  value;  or,  alternatively,  the  excess  over  the  reference  value  is  only 
exceptional and temporary and the ratio remains close to the reference value); and (b) 
whether  the  ratio  of  government  debt  to  GDP  exceeds  the  reference  value  of  60% 
(unless the ratio is sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a 
satisfactory pace). 

Article  126(3)  of  the  Treaty  stipulates  that,  if  a  Member  State  does  not  fulfil  the 
requirements  under  one  or  both  of  these  criteria,  the  Commission  has  to  prepare  a 
report.  This  report  also  has  to  “take  into  account  whether  the  government  deficit 
exceeds government investment expenditure and take into account all other relevant 
factors, including the medium-term economic and budgetary position of the Member 
State”. 

On  the  basis  of  the  data  notified  by  the  Bulgarian  authorities  in  April  20102  and 
subsequently  validated  by  Eurostat3  and  taking  into  account  the  Commission 
services’ spring 2010 forecast, the Commission adopted a report under Article 126(3) 
for Bulgaria on 12 May 20104. 

Subsequently, and in accordance with Article 126(4) of the Treaty, the Economic and 
Financial  Committee  formulated  an  opinion  on  the  Commission  report  on  27  May 
2010. 

Article  126(5)  of  the  Treaty  requires  the  Commission  to  address  an  opinion  to  the 
Council  if  the  Commission  considers  that  an  excessive  deficit  in  a  Member  State 
exists or may occur. In order to reach a conclusion on whether an excessive deficit 
exists or may occur, the Commission considers that account should be taken of: (i) 
the  conclusions  of  its  report  under  Article  126(3)  and  (ii)  the  opinion  of  the 
Economic  and  Financial  Committee  on  this  report.  On  the  basis  of  these  elements, 
the Commission has established a number of considerations for Bulgaria. 

CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING BULGARIA 

9. 

2 

3 
4 

According to the data notified by the Bulgarian authorities in April 2010, the general 
government deficit in Bulgaria reached 3.9% of GDP in 2009, thus exceeding the 3% 
of  GDP  reference  value.  The  Commission  report  under  Article  126(3)  considered 
that the deficit was not close to the 3% of GDP reference value but that the excess 
over  the  reference  value  can  be  qualified  as  exceptional  within  the  meaning  of  the 
Treaty  and  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact.  In  particular,  it  results  from  a  severe 
economic downturn in the sense of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, as 
the  global  economic  and  financial  crisis  hit  hard  the  economy  of  Bulgaria  and  the 
negative  annual  GDP  volume  growth  reached 5% in 2009. Furthermore, the excess 
over  the  reference  value  could  be  considered  temporary.  According  to  the 

According to Council Regulation (EC) No 479/2009, Member States have to report to the Commission, 
twice a year, their planned and actual government deficit and debt levels. The most recent notification 
of Bulgaria can be found at: 
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/government_finance_statistics/excessive_deficit/edp_
notification_tables. 
Eurostat news release No 55/2010 of 22 April 2010. 
All EDP-related documents for Bulgaria can be found at the following website: 
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/deficit/countries/index_en.htm. 

EN 

3 

   EN 

                                                 
 
 
Commission services’ spring 2010 forecast, based on a no-policy change assumption, 
the  general  government  deficit  will  fall  below  the  reference  value  already  in  2010 
with  the  stabilization  of  the  economy  and  as  a  result  of  the  fiscal  consolidation 
measures announced by the government at the end of March 2010. In a notification 
submitted  on  22  June  2010,  the  Bulgarian  authorities  further  revised  the  planned 
deficit  for  2010  to  3.8%  of  GDP,  above  and  not  close  to  the  reference  value.  The 
deficit criterion in the Treaty is not fulfilled. 

The data in the April 2010 EDP notification shows that the general government gross 
debt  remains  well  below  the  60%  of  GDP  reference  value  and  stood  at  14.8%  of 
GDP in 2009. The Commission services’ spring 2010 forecast projects the debt ratio 
to  increase  over  the  2010-2011  period,  but  to  remain  below  19%  of  GDP.  In  a 
notification submitted on 22 June 2010, the Bulgarian authorities further revised the 
planned debt for 2010 to 15.3% of GDP. The debt criterion in the Treaty is fulfilled. 

In  line  with  the  provisions  in  the  Treaty  and  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact,  the 
Commission also analysed in its report “relevant factors”. According to the Stability 
and  Growth  Pact,  these  can  only  be  taken  into  account  in  the  steps  leading  to  the 
decision  on  the  existence  of  an  excessive  deficit  if  the  deficit  satisfies  the  double 
condition  of  closeness  and  temporariness.  In  the  case  of  Bulgaria,  the  double 
condition  is  not  met.  Considered  on  their  own  merit,  the  relevant  factors  in  the 
current case on balance seem to be favourable.  

10. 

11. 

12. 

The  opinion  of  the  Economic  and  Financial  Committee  in  accordance  with  Article 
126(4)  of  the  Treaty  is  consistent  with  the  assessment  in  the  Commission  report 
under Article 126(3) on the existence of excessive deficit.  

CONCLUSION 

13. 

The  monitoring  of  the  budgetary  situation  in  Bulgaria  and,  in  particular,  the 
examination of the compliance with the criteria laid down in Article 126(2) has led 
the Commission to prepare a report in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty. 
The  Commission,  having  taken  into  account  its  report  and  the  opinion  of  the 
Economic  and  Financial  Committee,  as  well  as  the  information  contained  in  the 
revised  EDP  notification  submitted  on  22  June  2010,  is  of  the  opinion  that  an 
excessive deficit exists in Bulgaria. 

EN 

4 

   EN