Communication from the Commission to the Council - Assessment of the action taken by the United Kingdom in response to the Council Recommendations of 2 December 2009 with a view to bringing an end to the situation of excessive government deficit
Date: 2010-07-06
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: United Kingdom, budget deficit, public debt, public finance

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Brussels, 6.7.2010 
SEC(2010) 880 final 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL 

Assessment of the action taken by the United Kingdom  
in response to the Council Recommendations of 2 December 2009 with a view to 
bringing an end to the situation of excessive government deficit  

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1. 

THE  APPLICATION  OF  THE  STABILITY  AND  GROWTH  PACT  IN  THE 
CURRENT CRISIS SITUATION  

The vast majority of EU countries currently have general government deficits above the 3% 
of GDP reference value set in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). 
The origin of the often strong deterioration in the deficit as well as the debt positions must be 
seen  in  the  context  of  the  unprecedented  global  financial  crisis  and  economic  downturn  in 
2008/09. Several factors are at play. First, the economic downturn brought about declining tax 
revenue  and  rising  social  benefit  expenditure  (e.g.  unemployment  benefits).  Second, 
recognising that budgetary policies have an important role to play in the current extraordinary 
economic  situation,  the  Commission  called  for  a  fiscal  stimulus  in  its  November  2008 
European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP), endorsed by the European Council in December. 
The Plan stipulated that the stimulus should be differentiated across Member States to reflect 
their different positions in terms of public finance sustainability and competitiveness. Finally, 
several countries took measures to stabilise the financial sector, some of which have impacted 
on  the  debt  position  or  constitute  a  risk  of  higher  deficits  and  debt  in  the  future,  although 
some of the costs of the government support could be recovered in the future.  

In October 2009, capitalizing on the first signs of a recovery in sight, the European Council 
endorsed a fiscal exit strategy based on the following principles: (i) The exit strategy should 
be coordinated across countries in the framework of consistent implementation of the Stability 
and Growth Pact. (ii) There is a need for timely withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus. Provided 
that  the  Commission  forecasts  continue  to  indicate  that  the  recovery  is  strengthening  and 
becoming self-sustaining, fiscal consolidation in all EU Member States should start in 2011 at 
the  latest.  Specificities  of  country  situations  should  be  taken  into  account,  and  a  number  of 
countries need to consolidate before then. (iii) In view of the challenges, the planned pace of 
the fiscal consolidation should be ambitious, and will have to go well beyond the benchmark 
of 0.5% of GDP per annum in structural terms in most Member States. (iv) Important flanking 
policies  to  the  fiscal  exit  will  include  strengthened  national  budgetary  frameworks  for 
underpinning  the  credibility  of  consolidation  strategies  and  measures  to  support  long-term 
fiscal sustainability, as emphasised by the SGP. In addition, structural reform efforts should 
be  strengthened  to  enhance  productivity  and  to  support  long-term  investment.  These 
principles  for  fiscal  exit  have  been  put  into  operation  in  the  recommendations  issued  in  the 
context of the excessive deficit procedures as well as in the latest round of annual assessment 
of  Stability  and  Convergence  Programmes.  The  deadlines  for  correction  and  required 
structural efforts have been differentiated across Member States, taking into account country-
specific circumstances.  

The  stimulus  measures  in  the  context  of  the  EERP  coupled  with  the  measures  taken  to 
stabilise  the  financial  sector  have  prevented  an  economic  meltdown  and  laid  the  foundation 
for  a  recovery.  The  Commission  services'  spring  2010  forecast  confirms  the  outlook  of 
gradual  recovery  consistent  with  withdrawal  of  fiscal  stimulus.  Indicators  point  towards  a 
self-sustaining recovery at the end of 2010 and into 2011. However, significant risks remain 
linked to the situation in financial markets and the potential negative feedback loop between 
sovereign debt evolution and the banking sector. The following assessment of action taken by 
the  United  Kingdom  in  response  to  the  recommendations  of  2  December  2009  takes  place 
against the background outlined above. 

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2. 

EXCESSIVE 
RECOMMENDATIONS 

DEFICIT 

PROCEDURE 

AND  MOST 

RECENT 

The  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  requires  the  Commission  to  initiate  the  excessive  deficit 
procedure (EDP) whenever the deficit of a Member State exceeds the 3% of GDP reference 
value.  The  amendments  to  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  in  2005  aimed  at  ensuring  that  in 
particular the economic and budgetary background was taken into account fully in all steps in 
the  EDP.  In  this  way,  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  provides  the  framework  supporting 
government  policies for  a prompt  return to sound budgetary positions taking account of the 
economic situation, and thereby ensuring long-term sustainability of public finances.  

On 8 July 2008, the Council decided that an excessive deficit existed in the United Kingdom 
in accordance with Article 104(6) of the Treaty establishing the European Community (TEC). 
The  most  recent  Council  Recommendation  under  Article  126(7)  of  the  Treaty  on  the 
Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) was adopted on 2 December 20091.  

The Council recommended the United Kingdom to put an end to the present excessive deficit 
situation by financial year 2014/152. According to the Council Recommendation, the United 
Kingdom  authorities  should  bring  the  general  government  deficit  below  3%  of  GDP  in  a 
credible and sustainable manner by taking action in a medium-term framework. Specifically, 
to  this  end,  the  United  Kingdom  authorities  should:  (a)  implement  the  fiscal  measures  in 
2009/10  as  planned  in  the  2009  Budget,  avoiding  further  measures  contributing  to  the 
deterioration of public finances, and start consolidation in 2010/11 in order to bring the deficit 
below the reference value by 2014/15; (b) to this end ensure an average annual fiscal effort of 
1¾%  of  GDP  between  2010/11  and  2014/15,  which  should  also  contribute  to  bringing  the 
government gross debt ratio back on a declining path that approaches the reference value at a 
satisfactory pace by restoring an adequate level of the primary surplus; (c) further specify the 
additional  measures  that  are  necessary  to  achieve  the  correction  of  the  excessive  deficit  by 
2014/15, cyclical conditions permitting, and accelerate the reduction of the deficit if economic 
or budgetary conditions turn out better than currently expected. 

In addition, the United Kingdom authorities were recommended to seize opportunities beyond 
the fiscal effort, including from better economic conditions, to accelerate the reduction of the 
gross debt ratio back towards the reference value. The United Kingdom should ensure that its 
revised fiscal framework limits the risks to the adjustment and, after the excessive deficit has 
been corrected, underpins sustained budgetary consolidation.  

The Council established the deadline of 2 June 2010 for the United Kingdom government to 
implement the fiscal measures as planned in the 2009 Budget and to outline in some detail the 
consolidation  strategy  that  will  be  necessary  to  progress  towards  the  correction  of  the 
excessive  deficit.  The  assessment  of  effective  action  will  take  into  account  economic 
developments  compared  to  the  economic  outlook  in  the  Commission  services'  autumn  2009 
forecast.  

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2 

All EDP-related documents for the United Kingdom can be found at the following website: 
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/deficit/countries/index_en.htm. 
The UK financial year runs from April to March. 

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According to Regulation (EC) No 1467/973 and the revised Code of Conduct4 a Member State 
should  be  considered  to  have  taken  effective  action  if  it  has  acted  in  compliance  with  the 
Article  126(7)  TFEU  recommendation.  The  Code  of  Conduct  states  that  the  assessment  of 
effective  action  should  in  particular  take  into  account  whether  the  Member  State  concerned 
has  achieved  the  annual  improvement  of  its  cyclically  adjusted  balance,  net  of  one-off  and 
other  temporary  measures,  initially  recommended  by  the  Council.  In  case  the  observed 
adjustment  proves  to  be  lower  than  recommended,  a  careful  analysis  of  the  reasons  for  the 
shortfall should be made. In case of a multi-annual adjustment, the Code of Conduct specifies 
that the assessment should mainly focus on the measures taken in order to ensure an adequate 
fiscal adjustment in the year following the identification of the excessive deficit.  

Following  the  general  election  of  6  May  2010,  the  new  government  quickly  announced  the 
intention  to  present  an  Emergency  Budget,  which  was  adopted  on  22  June  2010.  This 
assessment also takes the latter into account.  

3. 

ASSESSMENT OF ACTION TAKEN 

The  Commission  services'  latest  macroeconomic  forecast,  which  was  published  on  5  May 
2010,  is  broadly  similar  to  the  economic  outlook  envisaged  in  autumn  2009,  on  which  the 
December  2009  Council  recommendations  were  based.  In  financial  year  2009/10  output 
contracted by ½ pp. more than had been expected in autumn 2009, in part due to a negative 
impact from poor weather in the first quarter of 2010. By contrast, in 2010/11 the spring 2010 
forecast projects a stronger pick up in output. Real output growth in 2010/11 is expected to 
reach  1¾%,  up  by  ½  pp.  when  compared  to  the  autumn  forecast,  primarily  reflecting 
prospects for positive growth in household consumption expenditure. An upward revision in 
the  forecast  for  consumer  price  inflation  further contributed  to  an  increase  in  the  projection 
for nominal GDP growth in 2010/11 by ¾ percentage point, although inflation is estimated to 
have  a  broadly  neutral  impact  on  public  finances  in  the  UK.  The  spring  2010  forecast 
confirmed the autumn 2009 projection of an expansion in real activity in 2011/12 of 2¼%.  

The  spring  2010  forecast  projected  a  reduction  in  the  government  deficit  from  an  estimated 
12¼%  of GDP in 2009/10  to 11½% in 2010/11.  The reduction in the government deficit in 
2010/11 was driven by discretionary measures amounting to around 1% of GDP. In particular, 
the increase in the standard VAT rate as from January 2010 to its pre-fiscal stimulus level was 
estimated  to  increase  revenue  in  2010/11  by  0.6%  of  GDP,  while  a  reduction  in  capital 
expenditure  by  0.2%  of  GDP  would  compensate  for  the  forward  shifting  of  planned  public 
investment  from  2010/11  to  2008/09  and  2009/10  to  support  the  economy  during  the 
recession.  The  spring  2010  forecast  also  took  into  account  planned  expenditure  efficiency 
savings  of  0.3%  of  GDP  in  2010/11,  which  had  been  announced  in  April  2009  and  which 
primarily relate to health spending. It estimated that the structural budget deficit in 2010/11 
would decline by only ¼% of GDP from 2009/10, inter alia reflecting low revenue elasticity 
as a result of continued weak activity in the financial and housing markets, each of which had 
hitherto been major sources of revenue.  

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4 

OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6. 
“Specifications  on  the  implementation  of  the  Stability  and  Growth  Pact  and  guidelines  on  the  format 
and  content  of  stability  and  convergence  programmes”,  endorsed  by  the  ECOFIN  Council  of  10 
November 2009, available at: 
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/deficit/legal_texts/index_en.htm. 

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Since  the  release  of  the  spring  2010  forecast,  a  new  initiative  was  taken  on  17  May 
concerning  the  provision  of  independent  forecasts  in  the  UK,  the  UK  government  has 
published a significantly downwardly revised estimate of the government deficit outcome for 
2009/10 on 21 May 2010, new measures reducing government expenditure were announced 
on 24 May and 17 June 2010, and an Emergency Budget was presented to parliament on 22 
June.  

Following  the  formation  of  a  new  coalition  government  after  the  general  elections,  the  UK 
authorities  announced  on  17  May  2010  the  establishment  of  a  new  Office  for  Budget 
Responsibility  (OBR)  that  will  "provide  independent  forecasts  for  public  finances  and  the 
economy  to  inform  fiscal  policy  decisions".  The  Chancellor  has  said  that  he  will  use  the 
forecasts  to  inform  the  government's  policy  decisions.  The  OBR  will  also  "assess  the 
prospects for achieving the fiscal policy mandate, to be determined by the Chancellor". 

On  24  May  2010  the  government  announced  with  immediate  effect  new  spending  cuts 
primarily  consisting  of  lower  budgets  for  several  government  departments  and  a  freeze  on 
civil service recruitment. These cuts in discretionary expenditure should reduce the deficit by 
0.4% of GDP in the current financial year 2010/11, while in 2011/12 will compensate for the 
non-implementation of the increase in social security contribution rates that had been planned 
by  the  previous  government.  Also  on  17  June,  the  government  announced  that,  as  part  of  a 
review of spending decisions taken by the previous government since 1 January 2010, it was 
cancelling  a  number  of  projects  costing  0.1%  of  GDP  and  suspending  projects,  primarily 
related to defence and transport, which would have cost 0.6% of GDP over their lifetime.  

According to the public finances data published on 18 June 2010, which were consistent with 
the  data  published  by  the  UK  statistical  office  on  21  May  2010,  the  government  deficit  in 
2009/10 would amount to 11.3% of GDP. While this is some 1¾ percentage points of GDP 
less  than  had  been  projected  in  the  autumn  2009  forecast  and  almost  1  pp.  lower  than 
estimated in the spring 2010 forecast5, the deficit remains amongst the highest in the EU. In 
turn,  the  better-than-expected  deficit  outturn,  which  was  due  to  the  economic  contraction 
having  a  weaker-than-expected  negative  impact  on  tax  intakes,  should  feed-through  into  a 
lower deficit in 2010/11.  

On  22  June  2010,  the  new  government  presented  an  "Emergency  Budget".  This  announced 
substantial additional fiscal consolidation measures. The new measures are estimated by the 
OBR to reduce the government deficit by an additional 0.5% of GDP in the present financial 
year  2010/11,  1.0%  of  GDP  in  2011/12,  1½%  of  GDP  in  2012/13,  and  2¼%  of  GDP  by 
2014/15. Taking into account the measures already announced in the March 2010 budget or 
earlier,  which  are  estimated  to  total  4.0%  of  GDP  by  2014/15,  and  the  new  measures 
announced in the June 2010 Budget, the OBR projects a reduction in the deficit from 11.3% 
of GDP in 2009/10 to 10¼% in 2010/11 and 7¾% in 2011/12. By 2014/15 - the deadline set 
for the UK in the December 2009 Council Recommendation - the deficit is projected by the 
OBR to reach 2¼% of GDP, compared to 4¼% of GDP based on policy as announced in the 
pre-election  March  2010  Budget.  The  OBR  considers  the  probability  of  this  target  being 
achieved is higher than 50%. The government debt ratio is plausibly projected by the OBR to 
peak at around 85% of GDP in 2012/13, before falling to almost 80% of GDP in 2015/16.  

5 

The  data  were  published  subsequent  to  the  publication  on  22  April  2010  of  government  finance 
statistics. Thus, the latest deficit estimate for 2009/10 is based on data that have not yet been validated 
by Eurostat.  

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The new measures announced in the June 2010 Budget will contribute to an improvement in 
the  estimated  structural  budget  balance,  as  re-estimated  using  the  commonly-agreed 
methodology,  in  2010/11  by  ¾%  of  GDP  and  between  2010/11  and  2014/15  by  an  annual 
average of around 1½% of GDP. This is slightly lower than recommended by the Council in 
December 2009 (1¾% of GDP) but is nevertheless appropriate given that the effort is being 
pursued  from  a  significantly  lower-than-expected  budget  deficit  in  2009/10  (11.3%  of  GDP 
compared to 13.0% in the autumn 2009 forecast) and is therefore consistent with reducing the 
headline deficit to well-below the reference value by 2014/15.  

Around  three-quarters  of  the  new  fiscal  tightening  is  planned  to  be  achieved  through  a 
reduction  in  discretionary  expenditure,  including  through  a  cut  in  departmental  budgets  - 
excluding those for health and overseas aid - of 25% in real terms on average over a four-year 
period, a two-year public sector pay freeze, and a reduction in welfare benefits. A Spending 
Review announced for 20 October 2010 will set out individual departmental spending limits 
for the whole term of the present parliament. The additional revenues will come mostly from 
an  increase  in  the  main  VAT  rate  as  from  January  2011  from  17½%  to  20%,  raising 
government  revenue  by  0.2%  of  GDP  in  2010/11  and  by  around  0.8%  of  GDP  per  annum 
thereafter. A new bank levy, to be introduced as from January 2011, will increase tax intakes 
by  0.1%  of  GDP  in  2011/12.  On  the  other  hand,  a  relatively  large  increase  in  income  tax 
personal  allowances  and  reductions  in  employers'  social  security  contributions  will  lower 
revenue  by  a  total  of  0.4%  of  GDP  as  from  2011/12.  The  government  also  announced 
reductions in the main rate of corporation tax and in the tax rate for small companies, which 
are  expected  to  reduce  receipts  from  taxes  on  corporate  profits  by  0.2%  of  GDP  from 
2012/13.  

Compared  with  both  the  January  2010  convergence  programme  and  the  2010  Budget  of 
March  2010,  the  macroeconomic  projections  in  the  June  2010  Emergency  Budget,  which 
were independently produced by the new Office for Budget Responsibility, are significantly 
more in line with the Commission services' spring 2010 forecast for 2010/11 and 2011/12 and 
with  current  consensus  estimates  for  the  period  between  2012  and  2014.  However,  output 
growth  may  be  weaker  than  expected  in  the  Budget,  including  possibly  as  a  result  of  a 
stronger demand impact of the additional measures and from a weaker external environment, 
which would have second-round effects on public finances. In addition to the macroeconomic 
risks,  the  size  of  the  planned  spending  cuts  will  be  a  challenge  to  implement,  which  if  not 
achieved would reduce the likelihood of compliance with the Council recommendation in the 
absence of compensatory measures. Overall, while risks are substantial, at this stage the UK 
appears to be on track to achieve a deficit below 3% of GDP by the recommended deadline, 
with the planned deficit of 2¼% of GDP in 2014/15 providing a buffer against slippages. 

In  the  June  2010  Budget,  the  UK  authorities  also  announced  a  new  fiscal  "mandate":  "to 
achieve  cyclically-adjusted  current  (i.e.  net  of  capital  spending)  balance  by  the  end  of  the 
rolling, five-year forecast period". This is complemented by a target requiring a reduction in 
net  debt  as  a  percentage  of  GDP  by  2015/16.  With  a  clearly  identifiable  end  point  and  less 
scope  for  manipulation,  the  new  mandate  is  a  clear  improvement  over  the  previous  golden 
rule.  Although  the  definitions  of  the  fiscal  targets  are  not  directly  comparable  as  the  deficit 
target  does  not  take  explicit  account  of  capital  spending  and  the  debt  target  refers  to  net  - 
rather  than  gross  -  debt,  the  approach  in  the  new  mandate  should  contribute  to  greater 
consistency with the EU framework. 

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4. 

CONCLUSIONS 

On  current  information  it  appears  that  the  United  Kingdom  has  taken  action  representing 
adequate progress towards the correction of the excessive deficit within the time limits set by 
the Council. In particular, the measures announced in the June 2010 Emergency Budget will 
further  increase  the  size  of  fiscal  consolidation  in  2010/11  and  also  significantly  strengthen 
the planned pace of deficit reduction over the medium-term.  

As a result of the measures announced in the June 2010 Budget, the deficit in 2014/15 - the 
deadline set for the UK in the December 2009 Council Recommendation - is forecast by the 
OBR  to  fall  to  2¼%  of  GDP.  Output  growth  in  these  forecasts  is  significantly  more  in  line 
with the Commission services forecast than previously. The planned pace of consolidation is 
driven  by lower  discretionary  expenditure.  The  publication  of  the  Spending  Review  on  20 
October  2010,  providing  detailed  departmental  spending  limits  to  back-up  the  overall 
spending targets for the entire term of the present parliament, will be another important step in 
the efforts of the authorities to restore sustainable public finances in the UK. The size of the 
planned spending cuts will be a challenge to implement, which, if not achieved, would reduce 
the  likelihood  of  compliance  with  the  Council  recommendation  in  the  absence  of 
compensatory measures. The new Office of Budget Responsibility and the new fiscal mandate 
announced by the UK authorities should however contribute to improve the fiscal framework 
and  limit  the  risks  to  the  adjustment.  Although  the  definitions  of  the  fiscal  targets  are  not 
directly comparable as the deficit target does not take explicit account of capital spending and 
the debt target refers to net - rather than gross - debt, the approach in the new mandate should 
contribute to greater consistency with the EU framework. Overall, while there are risks, at this 
stage  the  UK  appears  to  be  on  track  to  achieve  a  deficit  below  3%  of  GDP  by  the 
recommended deadline.  

In  view  of  the  above  assessment,  the  Commission  considers  that  no  further  steps  in  the 
excessive  deficit  procedure  of  the  United  Kingdom  are  needed  at  present.  The  Commission 
will  continue  to  closely  monitor  budgetary  developments  in  the  United  Kingdom  in 
accordance with the Treaty and the SGP. 

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Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections 

2008/09  2009/10  2010/11  2011/12 

Real GDP 
(% change) 

Output gap 1 
(% of potential 
GDP) 

General 
government 
balance2  
(% of GDP) 

Primary balance 
(% of GDP) 

Cyclically-
adjusted balance1 
(% of GDP) 

Structural 
balance3 
(% of GDP) 

Government gross 
debt 
(% of GDP) 

June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 
June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 
June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 

Jan 2010 CP 

June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 
June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 
June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 
June 2010 Budget 
COM Spring 2010 
Jan 2010 CP 

-1.4 
-1.4 
-1.3 
-1.0 
0.3 
0.0 
-6.8 
-6.8 

-6.9 

-4.7 
-4.7 
-4.7 
-6.4 
-6.9 
-6.9 
-5.7 
-6.2 
-6.2 
55.8 
55.8 
55.5 

-3.7 
-3.7 
-3.5 
-4.1 
-4.0 
-4.6 
-11.3 
-12.2 

-12.7 

-9.1 
-10.0 
-10.5 
-9.6 
-10.5 
-10.8 
-9.3 
-10.2 
-10.5 
71.2 
71.4 
72.9 

1.8 
1.7 
2.0 
-3.7 
-3.7 
-4.4 
-10.2 
-11.5 

-12.1 

-7.3 
-8.6 
-9.1 
-8.6 
-10.0 
-10.3 
-8.6 
10.0 
-10.3 
78.9 
80.9 
82.1 

2.4 
2.2 
3.3 
-3.5 
-2.8 
-2.8 
-7.7 
-9.4 

-9.2 

-4.7 
-6.4 
-5.7 
-6.2 
-8.2 
-8.0 
-6.2 
-8.2 
-8.0 
83.6 
87.9 
88.0 

2012/13 
2.9 
- 
3.3 
-2.8 
- 
-1.5 
-5.7 
- 

2013/14 
2.8 
- 
3.3 
-2.3 
- 
-0.4 
-3.7 
- 

2014/15 
2.7 
- 
3.3 
-1.6 
- 
0.5 
-2.3 
- 

2015/16 
2.7 
- 
- 
-0.9 
- 
- 
-1.3 
- 

-7.4 

-2.5 
- 
-3.7 
-4.5 
- 
-6.8 
-4.5 
- 
-6.8 
85.5 
- 
90.9 

-5.6 

-0.3 
- 
-1.8 
-2.7 
- 
-5.5 
-2.7 
- 
-5.5 
84.9 
- 
91.6 

-4.7 

1.2 
- 
-0.9 
-1.6 
- 
-4.9 
-1.6 
- 
-4.9 
83.1 
- 
91.2 

- 

2.2 
- 
- 
-0.9 
- 
- 
-0.9 
- 
- 
80.4 
- 
- 

Notes: 
 1 Output gaps and cyclically-adjusted balances according to the programme/Budget as recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the 
information in the programme/Budget. 
 2 General government deficit adjusted for UMTS receipts in line with Eurostat decision. Typically, this increases the deficit figure by 0.1 percentage 
point compared to the figure published in the official Budget documents. 
 3 Cyclically-adjusted balance excluding one-off and other temporary measures. 
 Source: 

 June 2010 Budget; Commission services' spring 2010 forecasts (COM); UK January 2010 Convergence Programme (CP); Commission services' 
calculations  

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