Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council - Progress towards achieving the Kyoto objectives (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) {SEC(2009)1581}
Date: 2009-11-12
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU environmental policy, greenhouse gas, international convention, pollution control measures, reduction of gas emissions, report, tradeable emission permit

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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 12.11.2009 
COM(2009)630 final 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND 
THE COUNCIL 

PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES 

(required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of 
the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas 
emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) 

{SEC(2009)1581} 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

2.1. 

2.2. 

2.3. 

2.4. 

3. 

SUMMARY………………………………………. .................................................... 3 

ACTUAL PROGRESS 1990-2007 .............................................................................. 6 

GHG emission trends ................................................................................................... 6 

Per capita emissions and GHG intensities in 2007 ...................................................... 6 

GHG emissions in 2007 compared to 2006 ................................................................. 7 

Emission trends in the main sectors ............................................................................. 8 

PROJECTED PROGRESS TOWARDS MEETING THE KYOTO TARGET ........ 10 

3.1. 

Projections by Member States.................................................................................... 10 

3.1.1.  EU-15 ......................................................................................................................... 10 

3.1.2.  EU-12 ......................................................................................................................... 10 

3.1.3.  EU-27 ......................................................................................................................... 10 

3.2. 

3.3. 

Implementation of the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP).................... 13 

Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) ............................ 14 

3.3.1.  First trading period (2005 to 2007) ............................................................................ 14 

3.3.2.  Second trading period (2008 to 2012)........................................................................ 14 

3.3.3.  Use of JI and CDM by operators................................................................................ 15 

3.4. 

3.5. 

4. 

Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by government ................................................. 15 

Projected use of carbon sinks..................................................................................... 16 

SITUATION IN THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES .......................................... 16 

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1. 

SUMMARY 

On track to reach the Kyoto target, 2008-2012 

Under  the  Kyoto  Protocol,  the  EU-15  has  agreed  to  reduce  its  greenhouse  gas  (GHG) 
emissions  by  8%  by  2008–12  compared  to  base  year  levels1.  Based  on  the  latest  available 
inventory  data  of  20072,  total  GHG  emissions  in  the  EU-15  have  fallen  for  the  third 
consecutive  year,  and  were  5.0%  below  base  year  emissions  without  Land  Use,  Land  Use 
Change and Forestry (LULUCF). GHG emissions  in EU-15 have been decreasing while the 
economy has grown significantly. Since 1990, the EU-15 GDP increased by almost 44%. 

In 2007, EU-15 GHG emissions decreased by 1.6% compared to 2006 while the EU-15 GDP 
grew by 2.7%. Projections3 as shown in Figure 1 indicate that the EU-15 will reach its Kyoto 
target. Ex-post evaluation4 of the impact of environmental polices on GHG emissions in EU-
15 between 1990 and 2005 shows that GHG emissions have been reduced by 7.6% (about 350 
Mt CO2 eq.). 

Figure 1: Actual and projected emissions for EU-15 

4.800

4.600

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q
e

2
O
C

t

M

4.400

4.200

4.000

3.800

3.600

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

EU-15 emissions
EU-15 existing measures
EU-15 Kyoto target
Business as usual

Kyoto mechanisms use by governments
Carbon sinks
Allowance and credit acquisition by EU ETS sectors 
EU-15 additional measures

Note: the arrows are based on 2008-2012 average and therefore do not correspond exactly to 2010 values of 
projected emissions. 
Source: EEA, European Commission 

In  the  commitment  period,  five  Member  States  (France,  Germany,  Greece,  Sweden  and  the 
United Kingdom) have projected emissions under existing policies and measures that would 
allow  them  to  achieve  their  targets.  When  all  measures  are  taken  into  account,  including 
carbon sinks, acquisition of credits by governments and EU ETS sectors, nine further Member 
States are projected to meet their burden sharing target. There is currently only one Member 

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State  (Austria)  which  is  projected  to  have  difficulties  with  achieving  its  GHG  reduction 
commitment. The projections, however, do not reflect the current economic downturn and the 
latest forecast on GDP development and may therefore be overestimated.  

The  methodology  for  estimation  of  the  EU  ETS  effect  needs  to  be  robust  and  consistent, 
further improvements are necessary, therefore the EU ETS effect presented in this report can 
be overestimated.  

The  EU-15  is  making  good  progress  towards  its  Kyoto  target  and  the  overall  EU-15  target 
will be met collectively. Current projections indicate that the target will be even overachieved.  

Despite the fact that in most of the twelve new Member States (MS) emissions are projected 
to increase between 2007 and 2010, nine of them that have a Kyoto target5 are projected to 
meet or over-achieve their Kyoto targets using only existing policies and measures. Slovenia 
projects that it will meet its target when all the existing and planned measures will deliver as 
expected.  

Total EU-27 GHG emissions were, in 2007, 12.5% below base year levels without emissions 
and removals by LULUCF and 1.2% lower compared to 2006. The EU-27 economy grew by 
2.9% between 2006 and 2007. 

Additionally,  according  to  the  provisional  2008  data6,  emissions  from  the  EU-15  Member 
States fell by 1.2 percentage points, taking them to 6.2% below their levels in the base year. 
EU-27 emissions are estimated to have fallen by 1.1 percentage points to stand 13.6% lower 
than the base year level. Those figures reflect the effects of global economic recession which 
was not yet the case for 2007 GHG emission data. 

New measures to reach the EU’s ambitious 2020 target 

In  December  2008  the  climate  and  energy  legislative  package  proposed  by  the  European 
Commission  in  January  2008  was  agreed.7  For  the  first  time  a  set  of  legal  acts  provides  an 
integrated and ambitious package of policies and measures to tackle climate change until 2020 
and beyond.  

From 2013 onwards the total EU effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% compared 
to 1990 by 2020 will be divided between the EU ETS and non-ETS sectors as follows: a) a 
21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions compared to 2005; b) a reduction of around 10% 
compared  to  2005  for  the  sectors  that  are  not covered  by  the  EU  ETS.  Taken  together,  this 
results  in  an  overall  reduction  of  -20%  compared  to  1990,  which  also  accounts  to  -14% 
compared with 2005. A larger reduction is required by the EU ETS sector because it is more 
cost effective to reduce emissions in the sectors covered by the ETS rather than in the other 
sectors, not covered by the system.  

The sectors outside the EU ETS currently represent some 60% of total GHG emissions in the 
EU. As a rule, it will be left to Member States to define and implement policies and measures 
in  these  sectors,  although  quite  a  number  of  EU-wide  measures  in  areas  such  as  energy 
efficiency  standards,  reduced  CO2  emissions  from  cars  and  waste  management  will  also 
contribute to emission reductions. For these non-ETS sectors, individual targets for MS were 
set according to relative levels of current and projected GDP/capita.  

The  new  set  of  climate  and  energy  measures  also  include:  legally  binding  targets  for 
increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2020, new rules on carbon capture 

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and  storage,  new  rules  on  environmental  subsidies,  as  well  as  reduction  of  CO2  emissions 
from cars and improved fuel quality.  

Figure  2  illustrates  the  significant  gap  between  MS  projections  for  2020  and  the  EU's  2020 
targets  (-20%  and  -30%  respectively)  requiring  the  EU  to  follow  a  much  steeper  emission 
reduction  path  after  2012  as  compared  to  the  period  1990-2012.  Depending  on  the  actual 
target, in 2020 emission reductions will have to amount to 1,000 – 1,500 Mt CO2 equivalents 
compared to baseline scenario. This underlines the need for the EU and its MS to implement 
as soon as possible the new legislation. 

Figure 2: Actual and projected emissions for EU-27  

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e

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6.000

5.500

5.000

4.500

4.000

3.500

3.000

3Gt

2Gt

1Gt

1st commitment 

Post-2012

period

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

EU-27 emissions

EU-27 additional measures

Primes-GAINS baseline projection

EU-27 20 % target by 2020

EU-27 30 % target by 2020

EU-27 existing measures

from 2013 

EU ETS 

non-ETS sectors  

Gradient: -1.74% p.a.

-21%

3Gt

2Gt

1Gt

-10%

2005                      2010         2013                     

2020   

2005                    2010         2013                       

2020 

Note: The graph includes 2007 update Primes-GAINS baseline projections. Above graphs for EU ETS and non-
ETS  are  rough  estimation,  final  figures  will  be  available  according  to  relevant  provisions  of  the  Directive 
2009/29/EC9 and the Decision 406/2009/EC10. Source: EEA, European Commission 

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2. 

ACTUAL PROGRESS 1990-2007 

2.1. 

GHG emission trends  

The  overall  EU  GHG  emission  trend  is  strongly  influenced  by  the  two  largest  emitters 
Germany  and  the  United  Kingdom,  accounting  for  about  one  third  of  total  EU-27  GHG 
emissions. In  2007,  these two MS have achieved total GHG emission reductions of 394  Mt 
CO2 equivalents compared to 1990 .  

The main reasons for the favourable trend in Germany (-21% in 1990-2007) are the economic 
restructuring  of  the  five  new  Länder  after  the  German  reunification  and  the  still  increasing 
efficiency in power and heating plants as well as in the use of combined heat and power. The 
reduction of GHG emissions in the United Kingdom (-17% in 1990-2007) was primarily the 
result of liberalising  energy  markets  and the subsequent fuel switching from oil and  coal to 
gas in electricity production and N2O emission reduction measures in adipic acid production.  

Italy  and  France  are  the  third  and  fourth  largest  emitters  both  with  a  share  of  11%.  Italy’s 
GHG emissions were about 7% above 1990 levels in 2007. The observed increases since 1990 
in Italy's GHG emissions are primarily due to road transport, electricity and heat production 
and  petroleum-refining.  France’s  emissions  were  6%  below  1990  levels  in  2007.  Large 
reductions  were  achieved  in  N2O  emissions  from  the  adipic  acid  production,  but  CO2 
emissions from road transport increased considerably between 1990 and 2007. 

Spain and Poland are the fifth and sixth largest emitters in the EU-27, accounting for 9% and 
8% respectively of total EU-27 GHG emissions. Spain increased emissions by 54 % between 
1990 and 2007. This was largely due to emission increases from road transport, electricity and 
heat  production,  and  manufacturing  industries.  Poland  decreased  GHG  emissions  by  13  % 
between 1990 and 2007 (-29% since the base year, which is 1988 in the case of Poland). Main 
factors for decreasing emissions in Poland — as for other Central and Eastern European MS 
—  was  the  decline  of  energy  inefficient  heavy  industry  and  the  overall  restructuring  of  the 
economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The notable exception was transport (especially 
road transport) where emissions increased.  

In 2007, eight MS had GHG emissions above base year levels whereas the remaining 17 MS 
had  emissions  below  base  year  levels.  Cyprus  and  Malta  do  not  have  emission  reduction 
commitments  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  In  those  countries,  emissions  in  2007  were  above 
1990  levels.  The  percentage  changes  of  GHG  emissions  from  the  base  year  to  2007  range 
from -53.4% (Latvia) to +52.6% (Spain).  

2.2. 

GHG intensities and emissions per capita in 2007 

Emissions  in  both  EU-15  and  EU-27  have  been  decreasing  while  the  economy  has  grown 
significantly. This indicates that a relative decoupling of GHG emissions growth from GDP 
growth has been taking place in the EU-15 since 1993, and in the EU-27 since 1996. Between 
1990 and 2007, GDP in the EU-27 grew by 45 % while emissions decreased by 9 % and in 
the EU-15, GDP increased by 44 % with a 4 % reduction of GHG emissions.  

All  EU  MS,  except  Cyprus,  Portugal  and  Spain  have  significantly  reduced  their  emissions 
while  their  economy  grew  strongly  between  1990  and  2007.  Strong  economic  growth  but 
decreasing  emissions  were  in  particular  observed  in  the  MS  in  Central  and  Eastern  Europe, 
due to the transformations of the inefficient heavy industry based manufacturing sector.  

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Figure  3:  GHG  intensity  for  EU-15  and  EU-27,  GDP,  energy  consumption  and  CO2 
emissions for EU-15  

140

120

100

80

60

)
0
0
1
=
0
9
9
1
(

x
e
d
n
I

40

1990

1995

2000

2005

CO2 emission

GDP

Energy consumption

GHG/GDP EU-15

GHG/GDP EU-27

In 2007, the EU-27 emissions per capita were on average at 10.2 tCO2-eq. In the EU-15, the 
average  was  10.3  tCO2-eq.  per  capita,  a  decrease  of  0.4  tCO2-eq.  compared  to  2006,  or  1.3 
tCO2-eq. compared to 1990. However, GHG emissions per capita show significant differences 
across European countries. Emissions per capita are correlated to the energy intensity and the 
energy mix of each country (see also figure 2 of the Staff Working Document (SWD)).  

In the 1990s, per capita emissions decreased in the whole EU. However, between 2000 and 
2007,  they  decreased  by  5.1 %  in  the  EU-15  while  they  have  risen  by  7.1%  in  the  EU-12. 
Between 1990 and 2007, per capita GHG emissions increased most in Spain, Portugal, Cyprus 
and Malta.  

2.3. 

GHG emissions in 2007 compared to 2006 

Between 2006 and 2007, emissions within the EU-27 fell by 59.8 MtCO2-eq. (1.2%) with a 
decrease in the EU-15 by 64.0 MtCO2-eq. (1.6%) and a slight emission increase in the other 
MS  by  4.2  MtCO2-eq.  (0.6  %).  GHG  emissions  decreased  or  were  stable  in  all  EU-15  MS 
except  for  Greece  and  Spain.  Emissions  increased  in  most  EU-12  MS  except  Hungary, 
Poland, Romania and the Slovak Republic.  

Germany,  the  United  Kingdom,  France  and  Italy  contributed  significantly  to  the  overall 
decrease of GHG emissions (respectively -23.9 MtCO2-eq., -11.2 MtCO2-eq., -10.6 MtCO2-
eq.,-10.2 MtCO2-eq.). The emission decreases were due in particular to lower consumption of 
all  fuel  types  by  households  and  services.  This  was  a  result  of  reduced  heating  needs  in 
Europe due to a warmer winter in 2007, together with higher fuel prices. All four mentioned 
countries  also  reported  important  emissions  decreases  from  energy  use  in  manufacturing 
industries. Germany reported the highest emission decrease, as a result of a warmer winter, an 
increased value added tax and a sharp increase in fuel prices for households. 

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Total  GHG  emissions  grew  most  in  Spain  (9.3  MtCO2-eq.),  Greece  (3.8  MtCO2-eq.)  and 
Bulgaria  (4.2  MtCO2-eq.).  In  all  three  countries  emissions  from  public  electricity  and  heat 
consumption  are  the  decisive  factor.  Estonia  had  the  highest  relative  emission  increase  (2.8 
Mt  CO2-eq.,  15 %)  caused  by  the  increase  of  the  electricity  generation  from  conventional 
thermal  power  plants  by  25%.  Lithuania  (1.9  MtCO2-eq.)  and  the  Czech  Republic  (1.7 
MtCO2-eq.) also experienced notable increases in total GHG emissions. 

Emissions from road transport continued to grow in most countries. Apart from EU-15 states 
(especially  Denmark,  Ireland,  Greece),  the  highest  increases  were  reported  by  Slovenia, 
Lithuania,  Slovakia  and  Latvia,  due  to  increased  traffic  volumes.  In  Bulgaria,  Germany, 
France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal emissions from road transport decreased 
slightly. This results in an emission increase from road transport of only 1 % in the EU-27 and 
a stabilisation of emissions on EU-15 level. However, additional measures will be necessary 
to keep control over GHG emissions from transport sector in the following years. 

Emissions of greenhouse gases from international  aviation and  shipping activities continued 
to rise in 2007, increasing by 1.8 % in the EU-27. Emissions from these sectors, currently not 
included  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol,  rose  in  the  EU-27  by  1.8  MtCO2  (shipping)  and  3.7 
MtCO2 (aviation).  

2.4. 

Emission trends in the main sectors 

Figure  4  shows  that  energy  (supply,  use)  and  transport  are  the  most  important  sectors, 
accounting  for  80%  of  total  EU-15  emissions  in  2007.  Transport  is  responsible  for  21%  of 
total GHG emissions, agriculture for 9%, industrial processes for 8% and waste for 3%. 

The decreases in energy, agriculture, industrial processes and waste has been partially offset 
by  significant  increases  in  the  transport  sector  (for  further  details  see  also  the  SWD).  In 
summary, compared to 1990, emissions in the EU-15 from: 

–  energy (supply and use, excluding transport) decreased by 7%, 

–  transport increased by 24%, 

–  industrial  processes  decreased  by  11%  mainly  due  to  lower  emissions  from  adipic  acid 

production and production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride,  

–  agriculture declined by 11% due to declining cattle numbers and decreasing use of mineral 

fertiliser and manure, 

–  waste decreased by 39% due to lower CH4 emissions from managed landfills. 

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Figure 4: Change in EU-15 GHG emissions by sector and share of sectors  

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Past change in GHG 
emissions, 1990-2007

Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other

Projected change with 
existing measures, 2007-

Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other

Projected change with 
existing and additional 

Energy Supply
Energy Use
Transport
Industrial Processes
Agriculture
Waste
Solvents & Other

1%

24%

-15%

-11%
-11%

-39%

-24%

4%

-8%

0%

-7%

-2%

-13%

1%

-10%

-2%

-8%

-2%

-12%

15%

15%

Sector share in 2007

Solvents & 
Other
0%

Waste
3%

Agriculture
9%

Industrial 
Processes
8%

Transport
21%

Energy 
Supply
32%

Energy Use
27%

Source: EEA

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3. 

3.1. 

PROJECTED PROGRESS TOWARDS MEETING THE KYOTO TARGET 

Projections by Member States8  

The  GHG  emission  projections  include  the  impact  of  the  EU  ETS.  However,  the  underlying 
methodology for the estimation of the effect of the EU ETS needs further improvement. Robust and 
consistent  methodologies  and  assumptions  are  needed  in  order  to  more  accurately  project  the  EU 
ETS effect. Taking this into account, next year it will be further investigated how to best estimate 
and  project  the  ETS  effect  and  how  to  improve  the  methodologies  through  the  revision  of  the 
Monitoring Mechanism Decision.  

3.1.1.  EU-15  

Figure  5  presents  the  projections  for  non-ETS  sectors  and  assesses  the  gaps  between  projected 
emissions  and  the  target  in  those  sectors.  The  aggregate  projections  for  all  sectors  and  based  on 
existing domestic policies and measures , including the effect of the EU emission trading system on 
domestic emissions, show that GHG emissions of the EU-15 will be 6.9% below base-year levels in 
the commitment period (1.1% distance from the Kyoto target). When including the,  

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

government  use  of  the  Kyoto  mechanisms  which  are  expected  to  deliver  an  additional 
2.2% emission reduction,  

total removal due to activities referred to in Art. 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol in the 
EU-15 corresponding to a 1.0% reduction, and 

use  by  the  ETS  sectors  of  allowance  and  credit  acquisitions,  corresponding  to  a  1.4% 
reduction 

the EU-15 is projected to reduce its emissions by even more than 8.0% in the commitment period, 
exceeding  the  Kyoto  target  (-8%).  Assuming  that  all  measures  deliver  as  expected,  the  projected 
overall reduction of GHG emissions could be up to 13.1% in commitment period compared to base 
year levels (including -1.6% effect of additional domestic measures).  

Given, however the EU's ambitious reduction target of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 and in order 
to pave the way for a smooth compliance with this target, it is imperative that MS not only ensure 
the timely delivery of emissions reductions from existing policies and measures but also that they 
accelerate the development and full implementation of their additional policies and measures.  

3.1.2.  EU-12  

Aggregate emissions based on existing domestic policies and measures from the other 12 MS are 
projected  to  increase  after  2007  but  will  still  be  about  29.8%  below  their  base  year  levels  in  the 
commitment  period.  Slovenia  is  the  only  MS  out  of  the  EU-12  that  intends  to  invest  in  Kyoto 
mechanisms. Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Poland intend to account for carbon sinks. 

3.1.3.  EU-27  

In  the  commitment  period,  total  EU-27  GHG  emissions  are  projected  to  be  about  12.8%  below 
base-year levels. This projection is based on the compilation of MS own estimates which take into 
account all existing domestic policies and measures, including the effect of the EU emission trading 
system  on  domestic  emissions.  The  projected  decline  is  15.0%  when  the  effect  of  acquisitions  of 

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credits via the Kyoto mechanisms by governments and carbon sinks is accounted for, and it could 
reach 16.5% if the additional policies and measures were to be implemented on time and deliver as 
estimated. 

These  emission  projections  need  to  be  considered  in  the  perspective  of  the  effective  reductions 
already achieved, which amounted to -9% for the EU-27 and -4% for the EU-15 between 1990 and 
2007. Therefore, reduction efforts will need to accelerate substantially across the EU in the future if 
it is to meet its -20% or -30% target by 2020. 

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Figure 5: Relative gaps (over-delivery or shortfall) between GHG projections in the non-ETS sectors for the commitment period and the respective 
2008-2012 targets based on ‘existing’ and ‘additional’ domestic policies and measures, the use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. (related to base 
year emissions) 

EU-15

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

-5%

0%

-1%

0%

-1%

2%

3%

13%

9%

-9%

-4%

-5%

-7%

-1%

-4%

0%

0%

-2%

0%

-1%

0%

7%

6%

17%

16%

16%

27%

27%

-12%

-16%

-9%

-10%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Percentage points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) (in share of base-year emissions)

Gap between projections WEM and Kyoto targets, in non-ETS sectors only

Gap between projections WAM and Kyoto targets (including carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms), in non-ETS sectors only

Source: EEA 

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3.2. 

Implementation of the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) 

Across  the  EU-27,  an  assessment  of  Member  States'  policies  and  measures  identified  eight 
Common  and  Coordinated  Policies  and  Measures  (CCPMs)  that  are  projected  to  deliver 
significant  GHG  emissions  savings  in  the  EU.  These  are  the  EU  ETS  Directive  and  in  the 
energy  supply  sector  the  Renewables  (RES-E)  Directive  (related  to  the  promotion  of 
electricity produced from renewable energy sources). In the transport sector fuel quality and 
reduction  of  CO2  from  cars  are  of  significant  importance.  Further,  in  the  energy  demand 
sector the Directives on the energy performance of buildings, energy taxation and promotion 
of co-generation (combined heat and power) play a role. Finally the Kyoto Protocol flexible 
mechanisms are projected to deliver significant GHG emissions savings in the EU. 

In  addition  to  these  eight  key  policies  and  measures,  a  further  five  CCPMs  were  identified 
that are also predicted to deliver important savings across the EU (from 4 to 7 MtCO2-eq. per 
policy).  These  five  policies  are  the  Landfill  Directive,  the  efficiency  standards  for  new  hot-
water  boilers,  the  Directive  on  Integrated  Pollution  Prevention  and  Control  (IPPC),  the 
Directive on labelling of appliances and the Motor Challenge programme, aimed at improving 
the energy efficiency of industrial electric motors.  

By  2010,  the  largest  savings  are  expected  from  the  EU  ETS  and  the  renewable  energy 
directives.  Members  States  also  expect  large  savings  from  the  internal  energy  market,  the 
implementation  of  the  energy  performance  of  buildings  directive  and  the  use  of  the  Kyoto 
flexible mechanisms are also expected to deliver significant reductions. 

The top eight policies account for 92% of the total savings attributed to CCPMs in the EU-27. 
This highlights the importance of these key policies in helping MS to achieve their emission 
reduction commitments.  

Recent developments 

The climate and energy package was agreed in December 2008 and includes: 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

Improved EU ETS: Directive 2009/29/EC9 amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to 
improve  and  extend  the  greenhouse  gas  emission  allowance  trading  scheme  of  the 
Community.  

Effort Sharing in emission reductions from sectors not covered by the EU ETS: 
Decision 406/2009/EC10 on  the effort of  Member  States to reduce their greenhouse 
gas  emissions  to  meet  the  Community’s  greenhouse  gas  emission  reduction 
commitments up to 2020, setting national commitments for GHG emissions outside 
the scope of the EU ETS.  

Binding targets for Renewable Energy: Directive 2009/28/EC11 on the promotion 
of the use of energy from renewable sources, setting legally binding targets for each 
MS  in  order  to  reach  the  EU  target  of  20%  share  of  renewable  energy  in  the  EU’s 
final energy consumption by 2020.  

Carbon  Capture  and  Storage:  Directive  2009/31/EC12  on  geological  storage  of 
CO2. 

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(5) 

(6) 

CO2  and  cars:  Regulation  443/200913  setting  emission  performance  standards  for 
new  passenger  cars  as  part  of  the  Community's  integrated  approach  to  reduce  CO2 
emissions  from  light-duty  vehicles,  which  will  ensure  that  emissions  from  the  new 
car fleet are reduced to an average of 130g CO2/km by 2015.  

Transport fuels: Fuel quality directive 2009/30/EC14 puts an obligation on suppliers 
to reduce greenhouse gas emission from entire fuel production chain by 6% by 2020.  

Other important developments have included: 

(7) 

Aviation:  Directive  2008/101/EC15  on  inclusion  of  aviation  activities  into  the  EU 
ETS.  

Road  transport:  Directive  2009/33/EC16  on  the  promotion  of  clean  and  energy-

(8) 
efficient road transport vehicles. 

3.3. 

Implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) 

In 2008, the total amount of verified emissions from EU ETS installations in the EU-27 was 
2.11 billion tonnes17 of CO2, 3% lower than in 2007. While the economic slowdown was felt 
strongly in the sectors covered by the system, the drop in emissions was also due to reduction 
measures undertaken by installations in reaction to the robust carbon price which prevailed for 
most of 2008 before the onset of the recession. Figure 6 shows the share of EU ETS emissions 
in the total GHG emissions by the EU. 

3.3.1.  First trading period (2005 to 2007) 

On  average  10,559  installations  participated  in  the  first  trading  period.  These  installations 
received emission rights for 2,107 Mt CO2 per year and on average emitted 2%18 less (2,071 
Mt  CO2  per  year).  In  2007,  the  share  of  the  EU  ETS  was  about  43%  of  total  EU-27 
greenhouse gas emissions. Almost two thirds of all installations are classified as combustion 
installations19 and these are responsible for more than 70% of overall emissions.  

3.3.2. 

Second trading period (2008 to 2012) 

The EU-wide cap for 2008-2012 amounts to 2.081 billion allowances per year, 10.5% lower 
than  what  was  initially  proposed  in  the  national  allocation  plans  submitted  by  the  Member 
States.  In  2008,  10,680  installations  participated  in  the  system  and  their  verified  emissions 
were 9% higher than the allowances allocated to them. 

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Figure 6: Total GHG emissions in EU-27 split into EU ETS and non-ETS sectors 

Phase I

Phase II

non-ETS
EU ETS

2155

2081

q
e
-
2
O
C

t

M

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

Note:  The  figure  is  a  preliminary  estimate.  For  2008  preliminary  estimates  of  total  GHG  emissions  were 
included. 

Source: European Commission 

3.3.3.  Use of JI and CDM by operators 

As  part  of  the  second  NAPs,  a  limit  was  established  by  each  MS  for  the  maximum  use  of 
project  based  credits  by  operators  (Joint  Implementation  (JI)  and  Clean  Development 
Mechanism (CDM)). In total, up to 278 million CERs or ERUs may be used per year by ETS 
installations from all MS in the second trading period. This corresponds to 13.4 % of the EU-
wide cap for the second trading period. In 2008, operators used 81.7 million CERs or ERUs 
which was 3.9% of all surrendered allowances. From 2013 onwards the rules for the use of JI 
and CDM credits will be revised as set in the revised EU ETS directive.20 

3.4. 

Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms by government 

Ten  MS  of  the  EU-15  as  well  as  Hungary  and  Slovenia  have  decided  to  use  the  Kyoto 
mechanisms  to  reach  their  Kyoto  targets.  Together,  these  EU-15  MS  would  acquire  93.1 
Mt CO2-eq.  per  year  for  compliance  under  the  first  commitment  period  under  the  Kyoto 
Protocol.  This  represents  approximately  2.2  percentage  points  towards  the  EU-15  Kyoto 
target of -8 % (see Table 12 in the SWD).  

These 10 MS together have decided to invest almost € 3 billion  to acquire units through JI, 
CDM  or  emissions  trading.  Austria,  the  Netherlands,  Spain,  Luxembourg  and  Portugal 
allocated the largest budgets (€ 531 milli on, € 506 million, € 409 million, € 330 million and € 
305 million, respectively, for the five-year commitment period). In Slovenia, the budget has 
to  participate  in  international  emission 
been  estimated  for  €  80  million.  Hungary  plans 
trading. 

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3.5. 

Projected use of carbon sinks 

In addition to the policies and measures targeting various sources of GHG emissions, MS can 
make  use  of  carbon  sinks  (see  Table  13  in  the  SWD).  The  information  provided  so  far 
indicates that the total net sequestration during the commitment period from afforestation and 
reforestation activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol will be about 8.2 MtCO2 per year 
for  EU-15.In  addition,  the  use  of  activities  under  Art.3.4  is  projected  to  contribute  25.6 
MtCO2 per year of the commitment period in the EU-15 and the Czech Republic, Poland and 
Slovenia expect a removal of 5.5 Mt CO2 per year of the commitment period. These figures 
take  the  maximum  allowance  for  forest  management  into  account  but  do  not  include  Spain 
due to the lack of detailed data. Together with the Spanish aggregate, all activities under Art. 
3.3 and 3.4 in the EU-15 MS are projected to reduce emissions by 42.4 Mt CO2 per year of 
the  commitment  period  equivalent  to  almost  12.4%  of  the  EU-15  reduction  commitment  of 
341 Mt CO2 per year during the commitment period compared to base year emissions.  

4. 

SITUATION IN THE EU CANDIDATE COUNTRIES 

Between 1990 and 2007 Croatia's GHG emissions increased by 3% and compared to 2006 
increased  by  5.3%.  In  2007,  Croatia’s  emissions  were  32.4  MtCO2-eq.  or  10%  below  base 
year  emissions.  Croatia  is  projected  to  slightly  exceed  its  Kyoto  target  taking  into  account 
existing measures and carbon sinks, but would meet and indeed overachieve the target with 
the effect of planned (additional) measures. 
In  2007,  Turkey’s  emissions  were  373  MtCO2-eq  compared  to  170  MtCO2-eq.  in  1990,  an 
increase of 119% and comparing to 2006 increased by 12%.  

In  January  2009  the  former  Yugoslav  Republic  of  Macedonia  submitted  to  the  UNFCCC 
secretariat  its  2nd  National  Communication,  including  inventory  of  GHG  emissions  from 
1990-2002. Between 1990 and 2002 total GHG emissions decreased by around 10%. 

For more information please see section 2 of the SWD. 

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