Commission staff working document accompanying the White paper - Adapting to climate change : towards a European framework for action  - Summary of the impact assessment {COM(2009) 147 final} {SEC(2009) 386} {SEC(2009) 387}
Date: 2009-04-01
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU action, EU programme, climate change, environmental policy, environmental protection, prevention of pollution

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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 1.4.2009 
SEC(2009) 388 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

accompanying the  

WHITE PAPER 

Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action 

SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT 

{COM(2009) 147 final} 
{SEC(2009) 386} 
{SEC(2009) 387} 

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This report is the executive summary of the Impact Assessment Report1 on the Commission's 
White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change2, the objective of which is to develop further the 
discussion at European level of the effects of climate change and to take steps to ensure that 
the EU and Member States are fully able to respond at the levels of both policy definition and 
practical implementation of solutions, bearing in mind that most adaptation initiatives need to 
be taken at national, regional or local level. 

The Commission adopted a Green Paper on Adaptation to climate change in Europe in 20073, 
which  was  followed  by  a  broad  public  and  inter-institutional  consultation4.  The  Impact 
Assessment benefited from the 4th IPCC report5, the EEA/JRC/WHO report on the impacts of 
CC in Europe6 and from a long list of reports and research projects on climate change impacts 
and  adaptation.  It  is  complemented  by  sectoral  papers  on  water,  coasts  and  marine  issues7, 
agriculture8 and health9. 

2. 

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: A NEW AGENDA FOR PUBLIC POLICY 

2.1. 

Key Concepts 

Vulnerability (IPCC,2007) is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to 
cope  with,  adverse  effects  of  climate  change,  including  climate  variability  and  extremes. 
Vulnerability  is  a  function  of  the  character,  magnitude  and  rate  of  climate  change  and 
variation  to  which  a  system  is  exposed,  its  sensitivity,  and  its  adaptive  capacity  (Figure  1). 
Conversely, resilience (IPCC, 2007) is the ability of such system to absorb disturbances while 
retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning. 

This  means  that  pro-active  adaptation  policies  should  not  be  restricted  to  an  analysis  of  the 
impact  of  Climate  Change  and  the  uneven  sensitivity  of  different  sectors,  regions  or  social 
groups. For some sectors, regions and groups climate change might provide opportunities for 
innovations in processes, technology and governance.  

Biodiversity,  ecosystems,  the  population  and  economic  agents  may  adapt  autonomously,  if 
other conditions are favourable, without interference from a central authority moderating the 

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SEC(2009) 387. The Impact Assessment report provides more detail at sectoral and geographical level 
COM(2009) 147. 
COM(2007) 354, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm 
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm 
Alcamo et al., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working 
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, available 
on http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm 
Impacts  of  Europe's  changing  climate  -  2008  indicator-based  assessment,  EEA  Report  No  4/2008, 
http://reports.eea.europa.eu/eea_report_2008_4/en/ 
SEC(2009) 386. 
SEC(2009) 417. 
SEC(2009) 416. 

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final  impact  of  climate  change  and  also  exploiting  climate  change  “opportunities”,  whilst 
triggering  another  layer  of  economic,  social  and  environmental  impact  and  shifting  the 
climatic impact elsewhere.  

Figure  1  Conceptual  diagram  for  climate  change  vulnerability  and  adaptation.  Source:  EEA 
(2008). 

Planned adaptation measures will therefore be needed to provide a multi-sectoral approach 
aimed  at  improving  the  resilience  of  the  natural  and  economic  system  and/or  facilitating 
specific adaptation, often with a medium- and long-term approach. Public action will also 
target the production of public goods and the provision of a level playing field for information 
on climate vulnerability and on costs and benefits of adaptation options. 

The major uncertainties over the future baseline for adaptation favour the implementation of 
flexible  or  adaptive  management,  assessing  the  robustness  of  alternative  strategies  against  a 
wide  range  of  scenarios10.  The  analysis  of  the  Impact  Assessment  is  based  on  a  holistic 
evaluation framework which goes beyond the direct impacts and economic repercussions of 
climate change, and takes on board the role of ecosystem services and the social dimension of 
climate  change  (Figure  2).  This  provides  a  basis  for  the  further  integration  of  the  existing 
information  on  the  potential  impacts  that  may  occur  given  alternative  projected  changes  in 
climate,  without  and  with  autonomous  adaptation.  So  far  the  knowledge  is  still  extremely 
fragmented, and research projects under the 6th or 7th Framework Programme are progressing 
in  defining  a  set  of  consistent  scenarios  designed  for  the  further  integrated  assessment  of 
adaptation and mitigation policies. 

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Hulme M. (2008), “Is Climate Prediction a Limit to Adaptation?”, Lecture at European Commission, 22 
May 2008 - School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia 

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Figure 2: Chain of Potential Impacts from Climate Change. Source: DG Environment, based 
on based on (EEA, 2008) and (IPCC, 2007). Potential impacts are all impacts that may occur 
given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation. 

Atmosphere / 
Atmosphere / 
cryosphere / sea
cryosphere / sea

Greenhouse gases 
Greenhouse gases 
concentration
concentration

Temperature (means & 
Temperature (means & 
extremes)
extremes)

Precipitation
Precipitation
(means & extremes)
(means & extremes)

Storms
Storms

Sea level rise
Sea level rise

Ecosystem conditions 
Ecosystem conditions 
and supporting services
and supporting services

Species phenology
Species phenology

Species distribution
Species distribution

Forest fires
Forest fires

Water quality
Water quality

Floods
Floods

Permafrost/ice melting
Permafrost/ice melting

Soil degradation
Soil degradation

Ground level ozone
Ground level ozone

Water scarcity droughts
Water scarcity droughts

s
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C
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Economic impacts
Economic impacts

Infrastructures and physical capital
Infrastructures and physical capital
(Damages, Losses)
(Damages, Losses)
Production and Consumption
Production and Consumption
(Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential,
(Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential,
Variability/disruptions activity)
Variability/disruptions activity)
Employment
Employment

Impact on Ecosystem services
Impact on Ecosystem services

Provisioning 
Provisioning 
(Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel)
(Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel)
Regulating
Regulating
(Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification)
(Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification)
Cultural
Cultural

Social Impacts
Social Impacts

Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity)
Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity)
Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions)
Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions)
Resource conflicts
Resource conflicts
Migrations
Migrations
Social fabric
Social fabric
Governance
Governance

2.2. 

Identifying the most vulnerable EU sectors and regions 

The  most  vulnerable  areas  in  Europe  (EEA  2008)  are  Southern  Europe,  the  Mediterranean 
Basin,  Outermost  regions  and  Arctic  region.  Furthermore,  mountain  areas,  in  particular  the 
Alps, islands, coastal and urban areas and densely populated floodplains are facing particular 
problems.  In  Northern  and  Western  Europe  a  more  complex  balance  between  negative  and 
positive effects is projected for moderate levels of climate change. 

The potential impact of Climate Change is higher in sectors which rely on ecosystem services, 
water  availability  and  climatic  conditions,  such  as  agriculture  and  forestry,  fisheries  and 
aquaculture, energy and tourism.  

The most vulnerable groups (elderly people, children, disabled, chronically ill, etc) are likely 
to  face  greater  difficulties  in  adapting.  This  poses  a  potential  problem  of  equity  and 
distribution.  It  also  raises  the  issue  of  whether  planned  adaptation  should  specifically  try  to 
target  such  groups,  or  apply  a  distributional  analysis  to  ensure  an  equitable  adaptation 
strategy.  While  a  lack  of  resources  for  the  most  vulnerable  is  often  cited  as  a  barrier  to 
effective  adaptation,  other  financial  mechanisms  and  market  failures  reduce  the  potential 
effectiveness of adaptation. 

Work  is  already  ongoing  at  the  European  Commission  to  assess  the  feasibility  and  provide 
options for the design of a (set of)  vulnerability indicator(s), at sectoral and regional levels, 
that  could  be  used  to  assess  further  EU-wide  adaptation  policy  packages.  It  would  require 
bringing together indicators at economic, social and environmental levels for different climate 
scenarios, to represent the levels of risks that different sectors and regions are facing. 

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2.3. 

Need for a better co-ordination of action at different levels 

Some  Member  States  are  well  advanced  in  their  thinking  on  adaptation  and  already  have 
policies in place, while others are still at the phase of identifying the problems or debating the 
direction  that  action  should  take.  In  existing  national  adaptation  plans,  it  is  recognised  that 
coordination between Member States is needed and benefits in approaching adaptation in an 
integrated,  coordinated  manner  at  EU  level  are  recognised.  The  reasons  for  taking  action  at 
EU level are set out below: 

•  Climate change will result in cross-border impacts and will require adaptation measures 
based  on  cooperation  between  different  Member  States  and  coordination  with  relevant 
non-Member States (e.g. upstream flood protection measures); 

•  A sense of solidarity must be enshrined in the adaptation strategy, as the effects of climate 
change will differ geographically and be highly variable meaning that the impact across the 
EU could vary considerably. 

•  To  avoid  mal-adaptation  (adaptation  action  shifting  the  impact  to  or  exacerbating  the 
problem in another area, country, sector or social group), it is often best to take action at 
cross-border or European level; 

•  Climate  change  will  have  a  major  impact  on  sectors  that  are  well  integrated  at  EU  level 
through the single market and common policies. Adaptation can be taken into account in 
EU spending programmes to complement the resources spent by the Member States. 

•  As  regards  external  action,  the  move  towards  increased  negotiating  power  at  EU,  rather 
than Member State, level may give the EU a leading role in adaptation in some sectors. 

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3. 

OBJECTIVES OF THE WHITE PAPER 

The specific objective of the Communication on Adaptation is to identify policy instruments 
at EU level and establish a work plan for the short and medium term, by: 

–  Improving the knowledge base on CC vulnerability (impacts and adaptive capacity) and on 

the costs and benefits of adaptation options; 

–  Ensuring  early  implementation  of  no-regret  and  win-win  measures  and  avoid  mal-

adaptation, by mainstreaming adaptation into EU policies; 

–  Putting  in  place  a  process  to  better  co-ordinate  adaptation  policies  and  assess  next  steps, 

including launching a debate on future funding. 

4. 

SCREENING POTENTIAL OPTIONS 

In  order  to  take  forward  the  objectives  set  out  above,  two  levels  of  options  need  to  be 
distinguished: 

–  The overall approach to pursue adaptation policy at any level. 

–  The framework for action at EU level.  

4.1. 

Options for the approach to adaptation 

There will be a plethora of public adaptation strategies, plans and projects, each one requiring 
an  assessment  of  vulnerability  and  an  evaluation  of  the  cost  and  benefit.  It  is,  however, 
possible  to  classify  adaptation  options  into  three  broad  categories  based  on  the  overall 
approach: 

•  “Grey”  infrastructure  approaches,  which  are  physical  intervention  or  construction 
measures  using  engineering  services  to  make  buildings  and  infrastructure  that  are 
essential for the social and economic well-being of society more capable of withstanding 
extreme events; 

•  “Green”  structural  approaches,  which  contribute  to  increasing  ecosystems'  resilience 
and,  while  aiming  to  halt  biodiversity  loss  and  the  degradation  of  ecosystem  and  restore 
water cycles, at the same time use the functions and services provided by the ecosystems to 
achieve a more cost-effective and sometimes more feasible adaptation solution than relying 
solely on grey infrastructure.  

•  “Soft”  non-structural  approaches  are  designing  and  applying  policies  and  procedures, 
land-use controls, information dissemination, and economic incentives to reduce or prevent 
disaster  vulnerability.  They  require  more  careful  management  of  the  underlying  human 
systems. 

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4.1.1.  Assessment of options 

The diversity of vulnerability across EU-27 and sectors and the scope for adaptation options 
cannot  be  addressed  in  this  Impact  Assessment.  Moreover,  this  report  does  not  select  one 
preferred approach, as all 3 approaches defined above have to be part of any policy portfolio.  

An  assessment  of  the  cost  and  benefit  of  adaptation  policies  requires  considering  the  full 
picture of EU and national measures (CAP and cohesion policy funds, environmental, health 
and  enterprise  policies,  etc.)  and  should  consider  how  re-focusing  or  reformulating  a  broad 
range of policies can help to make adaptation action more cost-effective, quicker and flexible. 
The  uncertainty  inherent  in  climate  change  projections  can  make  it  difficult  to  take  early 
targeted  action  in  all  sectors.  However,  early  action  can  bring  clear  economic  benefits  by 
anticipating potential damages and minimising threats to ecosystems, human health, economic 
development,  property  and  infrastructure.  For  certain  investment,  which  will  still  be  fully 
operational when the impact of climate change could fully materialise, the current direction of 
climate change predictions should play a role in decision-making now. 

Autonomous  and  planned  adaptation  options  may  trigger  environmental  costs,  which  will 
need to be addressed in sustainability assessments. In particular it is essential to perform an 
integrated assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies: while mitigation strategies (both 
energy and land-use) should fully integrate their vulnerability to climate change, some options 
for  adaptation  (in  particular  water  supply  and  cooling)  merit  a  careful  assessment.  This 
confirms  the  importance  of  integrated  land  and  water  assessment  to  ensure  the  optimal 
allocation of scarce natural resources (land, water). Other environmental impacts must also be 
explored  as  soon  as  possible  to  design  a  sustainable  adaptation  policy  and  avoid  “mal-
adaptation”. 

Regarding the social impact, a strategy for adapting to climate change has to be socially fair, 
especially  regarding  the  consequences  on  employment,  equity  and  distribution.  A  strong 
emphasis on human capital should be introduced; ranging from awareness of the challenges 
linked with adaptation to climate change to investment in education and training to ensure that 
Europeans have the skills and competences to adapt to climate change. Adaptation strategies 
must facilitate structural changes when required and harness new opportunities for economic 
development  and  the  creation  of  "green  jobs",  while  acting  in  solidarity  with  vulnerable 
groups. 

4.1.2.  Prioritisation of adaptation measures 

There is a range of adaptation measures that must be undertaken either because they pay off in 
the  short  term  irrespective  of  uncertainties  in  forecasts  (“no  regret”);  or  because  they  are 
beneficial for both mitigation and adaptation ("win-win"): 

•  Avoiding  infrastructure  development  and  building  in  high-risk  areas  (e.g.  flood 

plains, water scarcity) when locating or re-locating; 

•  Designing 

to  minimise  energy  and  water 
consumption and improve the water retention and cooling capacity in urban areas; 

infrastructures  and  buildings 

•  Flood  and  coastal  management  that  includes  creating  or  re-establishing  flood 
plains  or  salt  marshes,  which  increase  flood/sea  level  rise  management  capacity 
and support biodiversity and habitat conservation objectives; 

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•  Improving  preparedness  and  contingency  planning  to  deal  with  risks  (including 

climate). 

4.2. 

Options for action at EU level 

In  light  of  the  above  objectives,  there  are  three  main  “strategic”  options  for  a  future  EU 
adaptation policy: 

– 

– 

– 

Option  A  (Baseline)  implies  that  the  development  of  adaptation  strategies  is 
restricted to autonomous adaptation and to action at national level, while EU policies 
are  unchanged.  This  would  expose  a  number  of  gaps  and  potential  for  mal-
adaptation. This option was therefore discarded at an early stage 

Option  B  (Incremental  and  responsive  action  towards  an  EU  adaptation 
strategy) implies that the findings of this report are used to take the EU adaptation 
strategy a step further. Priority would be given to tapping the potential of on-going 
initiatives,  in  particular  at  national  level,  or  co-ordination  and  awareness  raising 
schemes  and  to  screen  in  detail  the  whole  range  of  EU  policies  and  instruments, 
while  putting  in  place  the  “governance”  of  the  EU  adaptation  policy  as  a  way  to 
monitor progress and lay the ground for future action. 

Option C (EU Adaptation Action Plan) would complement the former, by giving 
priority  to  new  legislative  initiatives  to  promote  sustainable  adaptation  actions. 
National  and  regional  adaptation  strategies  would  be  revised  and  streamlined. 
However, the current level of uncertainty on vulnerability to impact and on the costs 
and benefits of adaptation measures does not allow setting out in advance a definitive 
blueprint for action. Moreover, the case for action at EU level (e.g.  for  land-use or 
forestry)  needs  to  be  assessed  in  a  more  systematic  way,  and  a  wide  range  of 
adaptation  measures  is  of  national  or  local  competence.  Finally,  this  option  is 
considered  premature  before  political  priorities  for  the  new  multi-annual  financial 
framework 2013-2020 have been set. 

Option B is selected given the current situation, this option provides an adequate mix between 
the need for a strategic vision to develop an EU adaptation policy and the need for a flexible 
and  responsive  choice  of  policy  priorities.  This  corresponds  therefore  to  a  Short  term 
strategy  (up  to  2012),  starting  with  the  current  state  of  implementation  of  EU  acquis 
(including  ongoing  initiatives  that  have  not  yet  achieved  their  objectives)  and  the 
development  of  adaptation  strategies  and  corresponding  schemes  by  EU  Member  States 
driven from  their obligation under the UNFCCC. Assuming that  autonomous or MS guided 
adaptation actions will take place, it proposes the use of soft instruments and support action 
that in the short term can boost adaptation, prevent some forms of mal-adaptation and create 
EU added value for the schemes. 

5. 

MONITORING AND EVALUATION 

The European Commission, together with the European Environment Agency, has undertaken 
the  development  of  Adaptation  indicators,  to  provide  information  on  the  vulnerability  of  a 
certain  sector  or  region  and  to  give  feedback  on  how  policies  and  schemes  are  tackling  the 
problems, evaluating their adequacy, efficiency and flexibility.  

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This  European-wide  key  adaptation  indicators  based  on  agreed  definitions  will  assist  the 
Commission  in  reporting  on  the  progress  made  and  ensure  a  flexible  approach  to  policy-
making.  The  first  adjustment  could  take  place  after  the  UNFCCC  agreement  on  further 
mitigation actions have been concluded, as the level  of  ambition of  further action to  reduce 
emissions will influence the scale of adaptation across the EU. 

The reporting schemes will be defined at a later stage. They will build on the Clearing House 
Mechanism,  and  will  be  based  on  a  harmonised  approach  to  minimise  the  administrative 
burden. 

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