Commission staff working document - Annex to the report from the Commission to the budgetary authority on guarantees covered by the general budget situation at 30 june 2008 {COM(2009) 68 final}
Date: 2009-02-18
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: Community loan, EU Member State, budgetary reserve (EU), general budget (EU), investment protection, report, third country

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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 18.2.2009 
SEC(2009) 159 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

ANNEX TO THE 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE BUDGETARY AUTHORITY ON GUARANTEES COVERED BY THE 
GENERAL BUDGET 
SITUATION AT 30 JUNE 2008 

{COM(2009) 68 final} 

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COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

ANNEX TO THE 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 
TO THE BUDGETARY AUTHORITY ON GUARANTEES COVERED BY THE 
GENERAL BUDGET 
SITUATION AT 30 JUNE 2008 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the Budget ............................. 4 

1.1. 

Tables A1 and A2......................................................................................................... 4 

1.1.1.  Authorised ceiling (Table A1) ..................................................................................... 4 

1.1.1.  Capital outstanding (Table A1).................................................................................... 5 

1.1.2.  Annual risk (Table A2) ................................................................................................ 5 

1.2. 

1.3. 

1.4. 

Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee ...................................................... 8 

Disbursement forecast................................................................................................ 12 

Payment under the Budget guarantees ....................................................................... 14 

1.4.1.  Borrowing/lending operations.................................................................................... 14 

1.4.2.  Guarantees given to third parties................................................................................ 14 

1.4.3.  Activation of Budget guarantees................................................................................ 15 

2. 

2.1. 

2.2. 

2.3. 

2.4. 

2.5. 

2.6. 

3. 

Country-risk evaluation.............................................................................................. 16 

Analyses on other countries ....................................................................................... 16 

Brazil .......................................................................................................................... 16 

Argentina.................................................................................................................... 16 

South Africa ............................................................................................................... 17 

New Independent States............................................................................................. 17 

Mediterranean partners............................................................................................... 18 

Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators............................................................ 20 

3.1. 

Country-risk indicators (tables): ................................................................................ 21 

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1. 

EXPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE BUDGET 

1.1. 

Tables A1 and A2 

The purpose of Tables A1 and A2 is to show the outstanding amount and annual repayments 
of  capital  and  interest  in  respect  of  borrowing  and  lending  operations  for  which  the  risk  is 
covered by the Budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk for the Community in 
respect of these operations and must not be read as meaning that these amounts will actually 
be drawn from the Fund or the Budget. 

In  these  tables,  figures  related  to  “New  Member  States”  refer  to  the  Member  States  which 
acceded to the European Union on 1 May 2004 and on 1 January 2007. 

1.1.1.  Authorised ceiling (Table A1) 

This  is  the  aggregate  of  the  maximum  amounts  of  capital  authorised  (ceilings)  for  each 
operation decided by the Council. 

In order to relate it to the risk which the Budget might have to cover, account should be taken 
of the following factors which could affect it: 

Factor increasing the risk: 

•  the interest on the loans must be added to the authorised ceiling. 

Factors reducing the risk: 
•  limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB1: 

75%  of  the  total  amounts  of  loans  signed  in  the  Mediterranean  countries  based  on  the 
Mediterranean protocols of 1977 and Council Regulations 1762/92/EEC and 1763/92/EEC. 

70%  of  the  total  amounts  of  loans  signed  as  part  of  lending  operations  with  certain 
non-Member States authorised by Council Decisions 96/723/EC, 97/256/EC, 98/348/EC and 
98/729/EC and a sharing of risk between the Community and the EIB as the Budget guarantee 
covers only political risks in some cases; 

65%  of  the  total  amounts  of  loans  signed  as  part  of  financing  operations  with  certain 
non-Member  States  authorised  by  Council  Decisions  99/786/EC,  2000/24/EC  and 
2006/1016/EC,  and  a  sharing  of  risk  between  the  Community  and  the  EIB  as  the  Budget 
guarantee covers only political risks in some cases; 

•  operations  already  repaid,  since  the  amounts  concerned  are  the  maximum  amounts  of 

capital authorised (ceilings) and not outstanding amounts; 

•  the ceilings are not necessarily taken up in full. 

Another factor to be considered is that some loans are disbursed in currencies other than the 
EUR.  Due  to  exchange  rate  fluctuations,  the  ceiling  may  be  exceeded  when  the  amounts 
disbursed up to the date of the report are converted into EUR. 

1 

Within each portfolio individual EIB loans are, de facto, guaranteed at 100% until the global ceiling is 
reached. 

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1.1.1.  Capital outstanding (Table A1) 

This  is  the  amount  of  capital  still  to  be  repaid  on  a  given  date  in  respect  of  operations 
disbursed. 

Compared with the previous aggregate, the amount outstanding does not include loans which 
have  not  yet  been  disbursed  or  the  proportion  of  disbursed  loans  which  have  already  been 
repaid. 

1.1.2.  Annual risk (Table A2) 

Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year by each country according 
to disbursements made until 31 December 2007. 

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TABLE A1: CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED at 30.06.2008 (in EUR million)

Operations

MEMBER STATES
EIB (new Member States)
MFA to Bulgaria and Romania
Euratom to Bulgaria and Romania
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL
THIRD COUNTRIES
A. Macro-Financial Assistance
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria 
FYROM
Georgia
Romania
Serbia and Montenegro
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Sub total MFA
B. EURATOM 1
C. Other
EIB Pre-Accession countries
EIB Neighbourhood and Partnership countries
EIB Asia and Latin America
EIB South Africa

Authorised
ceiling

Capital
outstanding at
31.12.2007

Capital
outstanding at
30.06.2008

Remainder
to be disbursed
at 30.06.2008

 0

9
40
750
90
142
780
280
75
453
2 619

28 755
28 342
8 205
2 400

4 060
253
435
4 748

9
40

90
58

280
28
29
 534
 39

4 416
5 197
1 452
 666

3 976
 253
 435
4 663

 9
 40

 90
 58

 280
 28
 29
 534
 39

4 703
5 274
1 520
 562

1 086

1 086

 23

3 587
3 975
 570
 266

Sub total EIB2
67 702
70 321
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
70 321
(1) The overall ceiling is EUR 4 000 million for loans to Member States and non-member States. By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994, the Council decided to 
extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in certain non-member States.

15 790
12 303
17 051

16 034
12 631
17 295

9 483
8 420
9 505

(2) The subtotal EIB includes the EIB loans to Member States.

ANNEX TO TABLE A1: SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS at 30.06.2008 (in EUR million)

Operations 

Mandate 2007/2013:
Pre-Accession countries
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries:

Mediterranean
Eastern Europe, Southern Coucasus and Russia

Asia and Latin America:

Asia
Latin America

South Africa

Previous General Mandate 2000/20075:
Pre-Accession countries
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries
Asia and Latin America
South Africa
Member States (following the accession)

sub-total 65 %3

Financial agreements (70% Guarantee rate)
Pre-Accession countries
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries
Asia and Latin America:
South Africa
Member States (following the accession)

sub-total 70 %3

Financial agreements (75% Guarantee rate)
Pre-Accession countries
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries
Member States (following the accession)

sub-total 75 %3

Financial agreements (100% Guarantee rate)
Pre-Accession countries
Neighbourhood and Partnership countries
Asia and Latin America
South Africa
Member States (following the accession)

sub-total 100 %3
Total  

Credit line
authorised

Loans made
available minus
cancellations

Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
outstanding 
at 31.12.2007

25 800
8 700
12 400
8 700
3 700
3 800
1 000
2 800
 900

20 060
10 235
6 520
2 480
825

45 860
7 477
3 770
2 310
1 022
 375

7 477
7 712
1 350
6 362

7 712
6 653
4 700
 750
 903
 300

6 653
67 702

3 761
1 738
1 305
1 305

 555

 555
 163

19 608
7 395
6 451
2 175
824
2 763
23 368
6 513
 477
1 617
 809
 375
3 236
6 513
7 062
 713
4 492
1 857
7 062
5 320
 29
 315
 710
 285
3 982
5 320
42 264

 364
 25
 98
 98

 240

 240

12 299
4 530
3 962
1 447
 400
1 961
12 663
5 859
 420
1 474
 638
 258
3 068
5 859
7 133
 713
4 462
1 958
7 133
5 099
 29
 79
 699
 200
4 093
5 099
30 754

 364
 25
 98
 98

 240

 240

10 448
4 219
3 422
950
372
1 485
10 812
3 020
 317
 775
 181
 139
1 608
3 020
1 130
 131
 903
 96
1 130
1 073
 11
 76
 149
 51
 786
1 073
16 034

(3) Percentage figures relate to the Guarantee rate.
(4) Loans to New Member States were drawn from 'Pre-Accession countries' or from 'Neighbourhood and Partnership countries' ceilings. Bulgaria and Romania are 
included in the "New Member States".

(5) Including Turkey Terra and Special Action Turkey.

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Table A2: Total Annual Risk borne by the Budget in EUR million based on the amounts (capital and interest) due under all 

operations (MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30.06.2008

Ranking

Country

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 until 2037 Total Outstanding

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57

Turkey
Romania
Bulgaria
Egypt
Tunisia
Morocco
Lebanon
South Africa
Czech Republic
Poland
Slovak Republic
Serbia
Mexico
Jordan
Croatia
Slovenia
Hungary
Ukraine
Brazil
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Syria
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Argentina
Serbia and Montenegro
Indonesia
Albania
Cyprus
Peru
Pakistan
China
the Philippines
Latvia
Vietnam
Lithuania
Algeria
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Israel
Thailand
Russia
Costa Rica
India
The West Bank and the Gaza Strip
El Salvador
Malaysia
Maldives
Georgia
Colombia
Montenegro
Tadjikistan
Estonia
Uruguay
Ecuador
Malta
Panama
Republic of Moldova
Laos
Total Outstanding
Sub-total for Member States

Member States

 158,4
 116,0
 91,9
 91,7
 64,6
 64,4
 55,0
 46,8
 45,2
 42,3
 32,5
 22,4
 20,5
 20,4
 20,3
 19,1
 18,1
 18,0
 17,9
 17,4
 17,2
 15,5
 10,4
 7,0
 5,4
 5,3
 4,8
 4,4
 4,3
 4,0
 3,9
 3,7
 3,5
 3,3
 3,2
 2,5
 2,2
 2,1
 2,1
 1,8
 1,6
 1,6
 1,5
 1,4
 1,4
 1,3
 1,2
 1,2
 0,8
 0,7
 0,6
 0,5
 0,5
 0,3
 0,2
 0,0
 0,0
1 104,1
 377,7

 248,8
 259,4
 95,3
 181,3
 126,1
 130,3
 65,3
 98,7
 151,7
 80,6
 65,6
 44,3
 20,5
 41,0
 30,3
 25,9
 27,4
 21,1
 70,3
 28,9
 30,2
 27,4
 15,4
 14,3
 13,5
 12,0
 9,6
 6,0
 9,4
 7,3
 8,4
 6,7
 9,0
 6,4
 6,3
 2,3
 4,3
 4,3
 5,3
 4,8
 3,2
 3,2
 3,7
 2,8
 2,7
 1,5
 25,0
 0,0
 1,5
 1,5
 1,0
 0,8
 0,0
 0,6
 1,4
 0,0
 0,0
2 064,6
 730,2

 287,9
 253,7
 87,0
 171,4
 132,8
 133,4
 57,2
 64,5
 82,8
 76,9
 65,5
 49,2
 20,8
 37,0
 30,4
 20,8
 24,8
 5,6
 56,7
 31,5
 37,9
 26,7
 12,8
 14,2
 16,6
 12,2
 9,7
 9,0
 10,9
 7,4
 9,2
 6,5
 13,3
 5,7
 6,1
 2,8
 4,3
 4,5
 4,4
 4,8
 3,2
 3,2
 3,7
 2,2
 2,7
 2,6
 23,9
 3,7
 1,6
 1,5
 1,0
 1,0
 1,8
 0,6
 2,2
 0,0
 0,0
1 963,8
 634,9

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EN 

 291,8
 265,2
 70,1
 157,0
 130,2
 139,6
 57,3
 53,7
 74,0
 74,5
 66,0
 56,2
 2,9
 35,5
 39,1
 14,3
 23,9
 5,4
 43,2
 31,7
 37,9
 26,3
 12,7
 14,2
 12,0
 12,1
 9,3
 15,7
 10,9
 6,8
 9,2
 6,3
 13,7
 5,5
 5,9
 4,4
 4,3
 4,9
 4,1
 4,8
 3,2
 3,2
 3,7
 2,1
 1,6
 3,3
 14,2
 8,7
 2,4
 1,5
 1,0
 1,1
 3,6
 0,6
 2,2
 0,0
 0,2
1 905,2
 610,8

 302,6
 210,8
 82,9
 150,7
 131,2
 139,2
 56,8
 62,0
 71,4
 72,1
 51,0
 51,6
 2,9
 32,3
 42,0
 11,4
 21,8
 5,2
 38,0
 53,9
 37,9
 27,8
 9,9
 59,3
 9,7
 13,4
 7,2
 16,5
 10,9
 6,1
 9,6
 5,0
 13,6
 5,3
 5,3
 7,4
 4,3
 4,8
 5,5
 6,9
 3,2
 3,2
 3,7
 1,2
 1,6
 3,3
 0,0
 8,7
 3,1
 13,2
 0,5
 1,2
 3,6
 0,6
 2,2
 0,0
 0,4
1 906,4
 540,2

 292,4
 209,8
 68,0
 143,1
 133,8
 137,3
 51,8
 37,9
 68,9
 66,4
 37,2
 50,4
 2,9
 26,2
 41,8
 9,4
 13,2
 5,0
 63,2
 24,6
 36,2
 24,0
 9,9
 56,9
 9,7
 11,3
 4,8
 16,4
 8,4
 6,3
 5,1
 4,9
 13,5
 5,1
 4,6
 9,5
 4,2
 4,9
 7,6
 6,9
 3,2
 3,2
 3,7
 1,5
 0,8
 3,3
 0,0
 8,7
 3,5
 12,5
 0,0
 1,3
 3,6
 0,3
 2,2
 0,1
 0,4
1 781,7
 488,0

 288,7
 190,0
 68,1
 125,8
 125,3
 128,8
 34,5
 40,2
 56,4
 52,7
 25,8
 50,3
 2,9
 20,9
 37,9
 7,4
 9,0
 4,8
 83,6
 23,2
 36,2
 25,7
 3,2
 62,5
 9,7
 11,3
 3,2
 13,3
 5,8
 6,4
 5,1
 4,8
 13,3
 5,0
 2,0
 9,8
 0,0
 4,9
 1,8
 6,9
 0,0
 0,0
 3,7
 1,5
 0,0
 3,3
 0,0
 8,7
 3,4
 4,1
 0,0
 1,4
 3,6
 0,0
 2,2
 0,1
 0,4
1 639,7
 422,3

2 255,2
1 195,8
 331,6
 846,1
 753,2
 939,3
 122,2
 192,1
 175,7
 185,1
 131,2
 516,6
 14,6
 63,6
 324,1
 6,5
 15,1
 15,1
 193,7
 169,8
 239,9
 102,5
 3,2
 150,0
 32,9
 85,5
 0,0
 40,4
 17,7
 25,9
 10,4
 18,1
 17,6
 22,6
 0,0
 54,6
 0,0
 32,6
 0,0
 39,2
 0,0
 0,0
 12,7
 5,6
 0,0
 11,6
 0,0
 41,6
 37,3
 0,0
 0,0
 1,6
 16,2
 0,0
 19,5
 0,9
 30,2
9 517,1
2 081,7

4 125,8
2 700,6
 894,9
1 867,0
1 597,1
1 812,3
 500,0
 595,9
 726,0
 650,5
 474,8
 841,0
 88,1
 277,0
 566,1
 114,8
 153,4
 80,3
 566,7
 381,1
 473,4
 275,8
 77,5
 378,5
 109,5
 163,1
 48,5
 121,8
 78,4
 70,2
 60,9
 56,1
 97,5
 58,9
 33,4
 93,4
 23,6
 63,1
 30,8
 76,1
 17,8
 17,5
 36,3
 18,3
 10,8
 30,1
 64,3
 81,4
 53,5
 34,9
 4,1
 9,0
 32,9
 3,2
 32,0
 1,3
 31,6
21 882,6
5 885,8

   EN 

 
1.2. 

Loan operations covered by the Budget guarantee  

Tables A3a, A3b(1), A3b(2) and A4 

TABLE A3a
Borrowing and lending operations by the Communities to Member States 

Period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008
As Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU as of 01.01.2007, the outstanding amounts under the Euratom instrument are covered by the Euratom Decisions dedicated to 
the Member States.

Instrument

Decision

Date of
decision

Loan Guarantee Maturity
term
(years)

Rate

Date

Loan
situation

Amount
decided

 - closed (a)
 - partially disbursed (b)
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)

Outstanding
Outstanding
amount
amount
at 31.12.2007
at 30.06.2008
in EUR million in EUR million

BOP

2002/332/EC

18.02.02

100%

(d)

12 000,00

 0,00

 0,00

EURATOM

(3)

100%

77/270-271/Euratom
80/29/Euratom
82/170/Euratom
85/537/Euratom
90/212/Euratom

29.03.77
20.12.79
15.03.82
05.12.85
23.04.90

Bulgaria
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche
     4th tranche
     5th tranche
     6th tranche
     7th tranche
     8th tranche
Romania
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche

NCI

20
15
17
15
15
16
16
14

17
19
18

(3)

10.05.2021
15.01.2017
19.08.2019
18.06.2018
16.01.2019
10.09.2020
04.04.2021
23.02.2020

21.07.2022
26.11.2024
23.02.2024

100%

78/870/EEC
81/19/EEC(1)
81/1013/EEC(2)
82/169/EEC
83/200/EEC
87/182/EEC

16.10.78
20.01.81
14.12.81
15.03.82
19.04.83
09.03.87

 435,25

 434,50

 40,00
 14,25
 25,00
 25,00
 35,00
 30,00
 25,00
 17,50

 100,00
 90,00
 33,50

 40,00
 13,50
 25,00
 25,00
 35,00
 30,00
 25,00
 17,50

 100,00
 90,00
 33,50

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
   (b)(4)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

4 000,00
 500,00
 500,00
1 000,00
1 000,00
1 000,00
 212,50

 223,50

6 830,00
1 000,00
1 000,00
 80,00
1 000,00
3 000,00
 750,00

TOTAL

22 830,00

 435,25

 434,50

(1) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Italy in 1980.
(2) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Greece in 1981.
(3) Long-term loans for which the schedule of repayments depend on the dates of disbursement.
(4) By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994 the Council decided to extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in certain non-member States.

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   COUNTRY

    BULGARIA III*
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
    BULGARIA IV*
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
    ROMANIA III*
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche
    ROMANIA IV*
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA I
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA II
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
   REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA I
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
    REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA II
    FYROM I
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
    FYROM II
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche
     4th tranche

EN 

in EUR million 

Operations in 
six-month period

Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
repaid

31,25

25,00

TABLE A3b (1)
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008, broken down by countries and tranche
* Member States as of 01.01.2007
Loan
situation

Date
of decision

Amount
decided

Expiry
date

Decision

Amount
outstanding
at 31.12.2007

Loan
term
(years)

 - closed (a)
 - partially disbursed (b)
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)

97/472/EC

22.07.97

99/731/EC

08.11.99

94/369/EC

20.06.94

99/732/EC

08.11.99

99/325/EC

10.05.99

02/883/EC

09.11.02

94/346/EC

13.06.94

96/242/EC
97/471/EC

25.03.96
22.07.97

99/733/EC

08.11.99

10
10

10
-

7
7
7

10
10
 -

15
-

15
15

10
10
10

15
15

15
15
15
15

10.02.2008
22.12.2008

21.12.2009
-

20.11.2002
20.11.2004
23.12.2004

29.06.2010
17.07.2013
 -

22.12.2014
-

16.01.2019
09.02.2021

07.12.2004
08.08.2005
30.10.2006

27.09.2012
13.02.2013

15.01.2016
30.01.2017
04.06.2018
23.12.2018

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)

(a)
(a)
(a)

(c)
(c)
(a)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)

(a)
(a)
(a)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

9 

250,00
125,00
125,00
100,00
40,00
60,00
125,00
55,00
40,00
30,00
200,00  
100,00
50,00
50,00
20,00
10,00
10,00
20,00
10,00
10,00
45,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
40,00
25,00
15,00
50,00
10,00
12,00
10,00
18,00

31,25
31,25

20,00
45,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

75,00
50,00

10,00
10,00

10,00
10,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

25,00
15,00

10,00
12,00
10,00
18,00

Amount
outstanding
at 30.06.2008

0,00
31,25

20,00
45,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

50,00
50,00

10,00
10,00

10,00
10,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

25,00
15,00

10,00
12,00
10,00
18,00

EN 

 
  
 
 
 
TABLE A3b (2)
 European Community (MFA) and Euratom loans to non-member States
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period 31.12.2007 to 30.06.2008, broken down by countries and tranche

   COUNTRY

Decision

Date
of decision

Loan
term
(years)

Expiry
date

Loan
situation

Amount
decided

 - closed (a)
 - partially disbursed (b)
 - disbursed in full (c)
 - not yet disbursed (d)

in EUR million

Amount
outstanding
at 31.12.2007

Operations in 
six-month period

Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
repaid

Amount
outstanding
at 30.06.2008

  UKRAINE I
  UKRAINE II
     1/2 tranche
     1/2 tranche
     2nd tranche
  UKRAINE III
     1st tranche

  UKRAINE IV
  GEORGIA
  ARMENIA
  REPS FORMER USSR
  TAJIKISTAN
     1st tranche
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
     1st tranche
     2nd tranche
     3rd tranche
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
ALBANIA
LEBANON

94/940/EC
95/442/EC

22.12.94
23.10.95

98/592/EC

15.10.98

2002/639/EC
97/787/EC
97/787/EC
91/658/EEC
2000/244/EC

12.07.02
17.11.97
17.11.97
16.12.91
20.03.00

2001/549/EC
2002/882/EC

16.07.01
09.11.02

2003/825/EC
2004/580/EC
2007/860/EC

25.11.03
29.04.04
21.12.07

10

10
10
10

10
-

15
15
3

15
15

15
15
15
 -
15

28.12.2005

29.08.2006
30.10.2006
25.09.2007

30.07.2009
-

24.07.2013
30.12.2013
28.09.1997

30.03.2016
17.10.2016

28.02.2018
01.09.2018
04.05.2020
 -
23.03.2021

UKRAINE (Euratom)

94/179/EC

21.03.94

11

15.03.2018

TOTAL

EN 

85,00
200,00  
50,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
58,00
92,00
110,00
110,00
28,00
1.250,00
75,00
60,00
225,00
55,00
10,00
30,00
15,00
25,00
9,00
50,00

EUR equivalent 
of USD 83 million

0,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

29,00

57,50
0,00

28,00
225,00

10,00
30,00
15,00

9,00

39,00

825,00

(a)

(a)
(a)
(c)

(c)
(a)
(d)
(c)
(a)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(a)
(c)
(d)

(b)

10 

0,00

0,00
0,00
0,00

29,00

57,50
0,00

28,00
225,00

10,00
30,00
15,00

9,00

39,00

0,00

56,25

768,75

EN 

 
  
 
 
 
TABLE A4

LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB

in EUR million 

Geographical Area

Decision

Date
of decision

Rate
of guarantee

Amount
decided

Loans signed

Amount outstanding

        (minus cancellations)

at 31.12.07

at 30.06.08

at 31.12.07

at 30.06.08

MED. Financial protocols(1)

MED. Horizontal cooperation

R/1762/92/EEC

TOTAL MED. (3)

C and E Europe I

C and E Europe II

Asia, Latin America I

Asia, Latin America Interim

Asia, Latin America Interim

South Africa

New mandates

FYROM

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Turkey Terra

Mandates 2000-2007

The Baltic Sea basin of Russia

Russia, Belarus, Rep. Of Moldova and 
Ukraine

90/62/EEC(4)

91/252/EEC(5)

93/696/EC(6)

93/115/EEC

96/723/EC

96/723/EC

95/207/EC

97/256/EC(7)

98/348/EC

98/729/CE

99/786/EC

2000/24/EC(8)

2001/777/EC(9)

8.03.77

29.06.92

12.02.90

14.05.91

13.12.93

15.02.93

12.12.96

12.12.96

01.06.95

14.04.97

19.05.98

14.12.98

29.11.99

22.12.99

06.11.01

75% (2)

75% (2)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

70%

100%

70%

70%

70%

65%

65%

100%

100%

Date of
guarantee
contract
30.10.78/10.11.78

09.11.92/18.11.92

24.04.90/14.05.90

19.01.93/04.02.93

22.07.94/12.08.94

04.11.93/17.11.93

18.03.97/26.03.97

21.10.97

04.10.95/16.10.95

25.07.97/29.07.97

29.07.98/07.08.98

16.06.99/22.06.99

18.04.00/23.05.00

6 062

1 800

7 862

1 000

 700

3 000

 750

 153

 122

 300

7 105

 150

 100

 600

5 548

1 656

7 204

 912

 493

2 464

 571

 139

 122

 285

6 142

 150

 100

 600

5 548

1 656

7 204

 912

 493

2 464

 571

 139

 122

 285

6 142

 150

 100

 600

2005/48/EC(10)

22.12.04

19.07.00/24.07.00 (11)

06.05.02/07.05.02

19 460

 100

18 987

 85

19 008

 85

21.12.05/09.12.05

 500

 230

 230

Mandate 2007-2013

2006/1016/EC(12)

19.12.06

65%

01.08.07/29.08.07 (13)

TOTAL

27 800

69 702

1 898

40 381

3 761

42 264

(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78.
       By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance with the Council Decision of 7 October 1975.
(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 7 204 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4)  Poland, Hungary.
(5) Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.
(7) Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(8) South-eastern Neighbours, Mediterranean countries, Latin America and Asia, Republic of South Africa, Special action Turkey, as amended (2005/47/EC).
(9) A special lending action for selected environmental projects in the Baltic Sea basin of Russia under the Northern Dimension.
(10) A special lending action for certain types of projects in Russia, Belarus,Republic of Moldova and Ukraine.
(11) Restated and amended in 2005.
(12) Pre-Accession countries, Neighbourhood and Partnership countries, Asia and Latin America, Republic of South Africa.
(13) The amount decided of EUR 27 800 million is broken down into a basic ceiling of a fixed maximum amount of EUR 25 800 million and an optional mandate of EUR 2 000 million.

 745

 502

1 247

 127

 17

 730

 145

 22

 21

 62

3 036

 108

 61

 526

9 535

 76

 0

 78

15 790

 674

 455

1 129

 109

 11

 677

 129

 19

 14

 51

2 833

 114

 59

 515

9 933

 75

 1

 364

16 034

EN 

11 

EN 

 
  
 
1.3. 

Disbursement forecast 

The risk towards Member States should decrease in future as the loans are reimbursed under 
Euratom,  MFA  or  EIB  guaranteed  financing.  This  situation  could  change  in  case  some 
Member  States  which  have  not  adopted  the  Euro  call  upon  the  Community  medium-term 
financial assistance instrument (Balance-of-Payment)2 or call upon the Euratom facility. 

Graph A1: Annual Risk borne directly by the Budget in EUR million from 2008 to 2014 
based on the amounts (capital and interest) due by Member States under all operations 
(MFA, Euratom and EIB) disbursed at 30 June 20083 

n
o

i
l
l
i

m
R
U
E

 800

 700

 600

 500

 400

 300

 200

 100

 0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2 

3 

Council Regulation (EC) No 332/2002 of 18 February 2002 (OJ L 53, 23.2.2002, p.1). This facility is 
limited to EUR 12 billion and has not yet been used. However, on 4 November the Council decided to 
grant  Hungary  a  loan  under  the  BoP  facility  of  EUR  6.5.  In  addition,  a  Commission  proposal  to  the 
Council foresees an increase of the ceiling of the facility to EUR 25 billion. 
As of 31 December 2007, the 2008 annual risk for Member States was EUR 769 million. 

EN 

12 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
At  30 June 2008,  the  EIB  had  still  to  disburse  a  total  of  EUR 6 350 million  under  the  EUR 
20 060 million general mandate 2000– 2007 for third countries: 

Table A5: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2000 - 2007

Mediterranean
South-Eastern Neighbours**
Asia, Latin America
South Africa
Member States*

Ceiling

Loans made available
(minus cancellations) at
30.06.2008*

EUR million

to be disbursed

6 520
10 235
2 480
 825

20 060

6 451
7 395
2 175
 824
2 763

19 608

2 206
2 808
 254
 266
 816

6 350

* EUR 2,763 million for Member States are not included (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia).
** The ceiling includes Terra Turkey and Special Action Turkey.

At  the  same  date,  an  amount  of  EUR 3 352  million  were  to  be  disbursed  under  the  general 
mandate 2007-2013. 

Table A6: Disbursement forecast for EIB loans on general mandate 2007 - 2013

A. Pre-Accession Countries
B. Neighbourhood and partnership countries
C. Asia and Latin America
D. South Africa

Ceiling

Loans made available
(minus cancellations) at
30.06.2008

EUR million

to be disbursed

8 700
12 400
3 800
 900

25 800

1 738
1 305
 555
 163

3 761

1 693
1 202
 295
 163

3 352

Graph  A2:  Disbursement  forecast  of  EIB  loans  including  the  new  general  mandate, 
MFA and Euratom loans and total estimated outstanding covered by the Fund 

n
o

i
l
l
i

m
R
U
E

27.500

25.000

22.500

20.000

17.500

15.000

12.500

10.000

7.500

5.000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total estimated Outstanding

*It should be noted  that,  following  an  action undertaken by the  Parliament, on  6  November 
2008 the Court of Justice annulled Council Decision 2006/1016/EC since it was not adopted 
under the correct legal basis. The Court, while annulling the Decision, ordered “that its effects 

EN 

13 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
be maintained for EIB financing arrangements entered into before the entry into force, within 
a period of 12 months from the date of delivery of this judgment, of a new decision adopted on 
the appropriate legal basis, namely Articles 179 EC and 181a EC together”. The Commission 
is currently preparing a proposal to the European Parliament and to the Council to this effect. 

1.4. 

Payment under the Budget guarantees4 

1.4.1.  Borrowing/lending operations 

In  this  type  of  operation,  the  Community  borrows  on  the  financial  market  and  on-lends  the 
proceeds  (back-to-back)  to  Member States  (balance  of  payments),  third  countries  (macro-
financial assistance) or utility companies (Euratom). 

The loan repayments are scheduled to match the repayments of the borrowings due from the 
Community. If the recipient of the loan is late in making a repayment, the Commission must 
draw on its resources to repay the borrowing on the due date. 

The funds needed to pay the Budget guarantee in the event of late payment by the recipient of 
a loan granted by the Community are raised as follows: 

a) 

b) 

c) 

d) 

the amount required may be taken provisionally from cash resources in accordance 
with Article 12 of Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 
implementing Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom of 7 June 2007 on the system 
of the Communities' own resources. This method is used so that the Community can 
immediately repay the borrowing on the date scheduled in the event of late payment 
by the recipient of the loan; 

if  the  delay  reaches  three  months  after  the  due  date,  the  Commission  draws  on  the 
Fund to cover the default. The funds obtained are used to replenish the Commission's 
cash resources; 

the  transfer  procedure  can  be  used  to  provide  the  Budget  heading  with  the 
appropriations  needed  to  cover  the  default.  This  method  is  used  when  there  are 
insufficient  appropriations  in  the  Fund  and  must  be  authorised  in  advance  by  the 
budgetary authority; 

the re-use of amounts repaid by debtors who have defaulted, leading to activation of 
the Community guarantee, allows payments to be made within a short period of time 
always providing, of course, that there are recovered funds available. 

1.4.2.  Guarantees given to third parties 

The  Community  provides  a  guarantee  in  respect  of  financing  granted  by  the  EIB  under  the 
external  mandates.  When  the  recipient  of  a  guaranteed  loan  fails  to  make  a  payment  on  the 
due date, the EIB asks the Community to pay the amounts owed by the defaulting entity in 
accordance  with  the  relevant  guarantee  agreement.  The  guarantee  call  must  be  paid  within 
three  months  of  receiving  the  EIB's  request.  The  EIB  administers  the  loan  with  all  the  care 
required  by  banking  practice  and  is  obliged  to  seek  to  recover  the  payments  due  after  the 
guarantee has been activated. 

Since  the  entry  into  force  of  the  Regulation  establishing  the  Guarantee  Fund  for  external 
actions5,  the  provisions  of  the  Agreement  between  the  Community  and  the  EIB  on 

4 

The  Communities  have  granted  loans  and  guaranteed  loans  to  accession  countries.  Those  loans  and 
guarantees  were  covered  by  the  Guarantee  Fund  and  remain  outstanding  or  in  force  after  the  date  of 
accession.  From  that  date,  they  cease  to  be  external  actions  of  the  Communities  and  are  therefore 
covered directly by the Budget. 

EN 

14 

   EN 

 
                                                 
management  of  the  Fund  state  that,  after  the  EIB  calls  in  the  guarantee  in  the  event  of  a 
default,  the  Commission  must  authorise  the  Bank  to  withdraw  the  corresponding  amounts 
from the Fund within three months. 

If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the guarantee 
is the same as for borrowing/lending operations, see 1.4.1 above. 

An implementation agreement was concluded between the Community and the EIB on 20 and 
22 January  1999  to  determine  payment  and  repayment  procedures  in  connection  with 
Community  guarantees  to  the  EIB.  This  agreement  was  revised  in  order  to  reflect  the 
provisions  of  Council  Decision  2006/1016/EC  of  19 December 2006  granting  a  Community 
guarantee to the EIB against losses under loans and loan guarantees for projects outside the 
Community6.  The  new  Recovery  Agreement,  which  has  replaced  the  implementation 
agreement, was signed by the Community and the EIB on 1 and 29 August 2007. 

1.4.3.  Activation of Budget guarantees 

If a borrower defaults on an EIB loan guaranteed by the Budget, the Community guarantee is 
called upon at the earliest three months after the date on which payment has fallen due. The 
Community will act within three months of receiving such a letter from the EIB calling for the 
guarantee  to  be  activated,  authorising  the  EIB  to  take  the  corresponding  amounts  from  the 
Fund (see 1.4.2 above). 

For loans granted by the EC or Euratom, default interest owed by loan beneficiaries for the 
time between the date on which cash resources are made available by the Budget and the date 
of  activation  of  the  Fund  is  drawn  from  the  Fund  and  repaid  to  the  Budget.  For  EIB  loans, 
default  interest  is  calculated  during  the  period  between  the  due  date  of  a  defaulted  loan 
instalment and the date of receipt of the cash resources by the EIB from the Commission. 

5 

6 

Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 2728/94 of 31 October 1994 establishing a Guarantee Fund for 
external actions (OJ L 293, 12.11.1994, p. 1).  
OJ L 414, 30.1.2.2006, p. 95. 

EN 

15 

   EN 

 
                                                                                                                                                         
2. 

COUNTRY-RISK EVALUATION 

Countries other than those presented in the main report, but representing important risks to the 
Budget, notably through EC macro-financial assistance, Euratom loans or guarantees of EIB 
projects related financing, and either categorised as “severely indebted” according to criteria 
set by the World Bank or facing significant imbalances in their external or debt situation, are 
also  included  in  the  risk  evaluation.  The  country  risk  evaluation  presented  below  comprises 
short analyses or tables of risk indicators. 

2.1. 

2.2. 

Analyses on other countries 

Brazil 

Showing considerable resilience to the international financial crisis and the downward trends 
in  commodity  markets,  the  Brazilian  economy  is  expected  to  grow  at  around  5%  in  2008. 
Economic growth is primarily driven by domestic demand, with investments showing double-
digit growth (around 15% y-o-y in the last four quarters). Private consumption also performed 
strongly (with an average growth rate of 6.5% in the first two quarters of 2008), reflecting the 
reduction  in  unemployment,  the  increase  in  real  wage  mass  and  the  rise  in  public  social 
expenditure (although the targeted primary budget of the government has increased to 4.3% of 
GDP).  However,  FDI  inflows  remain  strong  with  an  expected  total  of  USD  32bn  in  2008; 
furthermore, rising interest rates (from 11.25% at the end of 2007 to 13.75%) should favour 
portfolio  inflows.  Having  succeeded  in  paying  back  in  2006  all  its  outstanding  debt  to  the 
IMF  and  the  Paris  Club,  Brazil's  foreign  debt  ratios  have  declined  significantly.  Also,  the 
country  has  accumulated  foreign  exchange  reserves  of  USD  215  billion,  equivalent  to  15 
months of good imports. All this had made Brazil clearly less vulnerable to externally induced 
economic turmoil than in the past. Currently, the most serious vulnerability is the dependence 
of this favourable picture on commodity prices and capital inflows, worsened by the increased 
uncertainty in the external scenario.  

2.3. 

Argentina 

The  global  economic  downturn  and  the  unstable  internal  situation  -  with  a  long-lasting 
conflict  between  farmers  unions  and  the  Argentinean  government  -  reduced  both  consumer 
and foreign investor confidence, and slowed GDP growth from 8.7% in 2007 to 6.2% in 2008. 

High  commodity  prices  still  favour  the  external  sector.  With  final  demand  being  strong,  in 
2008 exports growth increased by 7 pp to 27%, compared to a growth rate of 33% for imports, 
implying a decline in the current account surplus from 2.9% of GDP in 2007 to 2.3% in 2008 
(this  decline  is  expected  to  further  intensify  in  2009).  The  situation  of  public  finances  has 
deteriorated somewhat in 2007 as government consumption expanded at double-digit figures 
in  the  presidential  election  year.  Moreover,  the  inflation  outlook  has  deteriorated,  partly 
reflecting  the  strength  of  domestic  demand  and  a  policy  of  maintaining  a  relatively 
undervalued  peso.  Moreover,  uncertainties  concerning  the  legal  framework  and  government 
policy  towards  public  utilities  persist,  with  further  detrimental  effects  on  the  confidence  of 
foreign investors. Consequently, international rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's 
revised their assessment of the country downward. 

After having fully repaid its outstanding debt of $9.5 with the IMF in 2006, President Cristina 
Fernandez recently surprised the markets and announced that the government would repay its 
$6.7bn debt with the Paris Club using central bank reserves. In case of an agreement with the 
Paris Club countries, Argentina would not have to submit to surveillance by the IMF, as asked 
for by its western creditors so far. 

EN 

16 

   EN 

 
2.4. 

South Africa 

South  Africa  is  a  middle-income,  emerging  market  economy  with  an  abundant  supply  of 
natural resources. It is the dominant economic actor in southern Africa, accounting for 35% of 
Sub  Saharan  Africa’s  GDP.  Real  GDP  growth  in  2007  reached  5.1  percent  with  strong 
contributions from construction and financial sectors. In the first quarter of 2008 GDP growth 
fell  to  2.1  percent,  but  rebounded  to  4.9  percent  in  the  second  quarter,  reflecting  a  strong 
expansion in particular in mining and manufacturing. The latter could partly be attributed to 
base  effects  as  electricity  supply  improved  considerably  in  the  second  quarter,  following 
severe disruptions in the preceding quarter. Export volumes benefited considerably from the 
recovery  in  mining  and  manufacturing  production  in  the  second  quarter  of  2008. 
Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed significantly in the second quarter leading also to a 
smaller  current  account  deficit  (-7.3%).  Net  capital  inflows  on  the  financial  account  were 
sufficient  to  finance  the  deficit  on  the  current  account  and  to  further  increase  international 
reserves.  Inflation  gained  further  momentum  in  the  first  half  of  2008  (11.6%  in  June  2008) 
with indications of second-round inflationary forces. These motivated a further tightening of 
monetary policies. The inflation outlook foresees inflation to fall substantially in 2009 and to 
fall back into the 3 to 6 percent inflation target range within 2010. 

The  rising  risks  in  financial  markets  globally  have  had  a  negative  impact  on  South  African 
financial indicators. The South African Rand had declined in value against major currencies 
(25% against the Euro in 2008 by 4 November). The SA economy will mainly be affected by 
a  slowdown  of  the  global  economy  implying  reduced  export  growth.  The  financing  of  the 
current  account  deficit  (8-9%)  has  become  less  assured,  while  rising  inflation  (11%)  gives 
little  room  for  a  monetary  policy  response.  However,  a  good  growth  performance  in  recent 
years  contributed  to  good  fundamentals.  Fiscal  policy  was  prudent,  thus  running  a  budget 
surplus since 2006 and bringing public debt below 30% of GDP. External debt is also below 
30% of GDP – close to half of it is denominated in rand. Foreign reserves are relatively high 
covering 200% of short-term external debt and 3.3 months of imports of goods and services. 

2.5. 

New Independent States  

In  Georgia,  the  economic  performance  was  strong  in  the  first  half  of  2008  with  real  GDP 
growth  of  8.5%.  After  the  August  2008  war  with  Russia,  the  outlook  is  very  uncertain.  At 
present  economic  growth  is  projected  to  slow  down  to  about  4%.  The  12-month  inflation 
decelerated  somewhat  to  about  10%  by  mid-2008  owing  to  the  monetary  tightening.  The 
current  account  deficit  of  about  20%  of  GDP  has  been  financed  by  private  capital  inflows. 
Some  delays  are  now  likely  in  the  planned  foreign  direct  investment  (after  a  FDI  peak  of 
15.3% of GDP in 2007) to a projected 9% of GDP this year. The banking sector's borrowing 
in foreign capital markets supported strong credit expansion and economic growth. Given that 
the  banks'  access  to  the  international  markets  is  deterred  in  the  present  financial  market 
turmoil, the banks are mitigating their refinancing risks by consolidating their balance sheets. 
Public spending (especially in the military, in total at equivalent to 8% of GDP) continued to 
increase  in  the  course  of  2008,  and  the  fiscal  deficit  is  estimated  at  6.3%  of  GDP  in  2008. 
Privatisation proceeds help finance the deficit (about 3% of GDP coming from privatisation 
against  about  5%  of  GDP  in  2007).  The  Georgian  Government  also  placed  its  first  ever 
Eurobond  issue  of  USD  500  million  in  April.  Therefore,  the  external  public  debt  is  set  to 
increase from 17.5% of GDP in 2007 to 21%. In August, Standard & Poor's lowered Georgia's 
sovereign  credit  rating  to  B  (now  with  stable  outlook).  Georgia  is  receiving  immediate 
financial  assistance  from  the  international  community,  including  a  new  agreement  with  the 
IMF and significant grant assistance from the US, EU and other bilateral donors. 

EN 

17 

   EN 

 
In Ukraine, robust real GDP growth continued at 6.3% in the first half of the year, supported 
by  a  strong  credit  growth  and  an  increase  in  real  incomes.  The  12-month  consumer  price 
inflation  continued  to  accelerate,  peaking  at  31%  in  May  2008,  driven  by  food  prices  that 
account for about 50% of the consumption basket of the index. The current account balance 
deteriorates  rapidly  and  is  projected  to  reach  a  deficit  of  about  7%  of  GDP  in  2008.  The 
external  environment  is  becoming  more  challenging  for  Ukraine.  The  terms  of  trade  have 
turned  negative  as  steel  export  prices  in  the  world  markets  are  coming  down  and  Ukraine's 
energy import prices continue on an upward trend. Fiscal deficit is kept at below 2% of GDP 
as  robust  economic  growth  has  supported  the  government's  revenue  collection.  Ukraine's 
public  external  debt  is  set  to  decline  to  below  10%  of  GDP,  while  the  banking  sector's 
borrowing in foreign capital markets has driven the total external debt to about 60% of GDP. 
The main risks relate to the international financial market turmoil and the political deadlock in 
the  country,  which  has  delayed  crucial  structural  reforms.  More  flexibility  in  the  exchange 
rate  policy  is  welcome  to  address  the  growing  macroeconomic  policy  challenges  in  the 
Ukrainian economy. Some fluctuation in the hryvnia rate was allowed after May following a 
long period of a de facto peg to the US dollar. Standard & Poor's lowered Ukraine's sovereign 
long-term credit rating to B+ in June, given the growing imbalances of the economy. 

2.6.  Mediterranean partners 

gypt's economic growth accelerated from 7.1% in fiscal year 2007 to 7.2% in fiscal year 2008 
underpinned  by  investment,  especially  foreign  direct  investments,  and  private  consumption 
(also via tourism). However, the unfolding global financial crisis will sooner or later affect the 
economy of Egypt. The financial sector already shows the first signals. Coupled to the stock 
markets of developed countries, the Egyptian stock market capitalisation has lost since May 
of  this  year  more  than  50%,  equalling  a  loss  of  more  than  30%  of  GDP.  This  impacts  the 
funding  for  enterprises  negatively.  The  privatisation  process  for  state  companies  is  also 
stagnating.  The  multitude  of  public  enterprises  is  draining  the  government  budget  and 
hampers  a  proper  functioning  of  the  internal  market.  Apart  from  the  negative  effects  in  the 
financial sector, the real economy will be hit by a fall in global demand, a slowdown in the 
tourism sector and a fall in inward foreign direct investment. On a positive side, inflation will 
come  down  from  its  current  level  of  more  than  20%  y-o-y.  In  the  medium  term,  the  lower 
energy prices are expected to bring down the still soaring food prices. So far, the government 
finances have been stable, with deficits in the range of 7 to 8% of GDP. For this reason gross 
government  debt  is  high,  at  almost  90%  of  GDP.  The  sustainability  of  public  finances  will 
come further under pressure when economic growth starts slowing down.  

Lebanon  appears  potentially  vulnerable  to  the  unfolding  financial  crisis  because  of  the 
linkages to trade flows and the sheer weight of the financial sector in the national economy. 
Emerging  markets  that  are  highly  dependant  on  capital  inflows  –  such  as  Lebanon  –  are 
among the most vulnerable to risk aversion to the extent that finance lines and capital inflows 
will be hurt, and onshore US dollar borrowing rates will rise. On the positive side, however, 
the importance of Lebanon as a centre through which petrodollars earned by Gulf States are 
recycled,  the  stable  exchange  rate  to  the  dollar,  and  the  high  level  of  remittances  inflows 
provide a cushion. Nevertheless, in recent months the ongoing fall in Lebanese share prices 
reflects  the  negative  sentiment  from  global  markets.  In  the  wake  of  risk  aversion,  weaker 
foreign investment inflows might take their toll on investment. Rising inflation also remains a 
concern. According to the new index of CPI inflation, consumer prices were 7.5% higher in 
August  than  in  December  of  2007,  implying  a  y-o-y  inflation  rate  of  around  14%,  led  by 
soaring  food  and  energy  prices.  In  2007,  Lebanon  was  the  middle  income  country  with  the 
highest share of FDI inflows in domestic investment (64%). Lebanon is one of the countries 
in the southern Mediterranean region most vulnerable to the impact of soaring prices in view 

EN 

18 

   EN 

 
of the weight of food and energy in the consumption basket and of the still very high level of 
public debt (even though it is estimated to decline from 171 % of GDP in 2007 to 143 % of 
GDP in 2008. Higher refinancing costs in the wake of global financial problems would further 
weigh  on  the  budget.  However,  for  lack  of  recent  fiscal  data,  the  impact  on  the  budget  is 
difficult to estimate at this juncture. 

In Tunisia, GDP growth is expected to reach close to 6% in 2008, after some years of quite 
buoyant economic growth,. The gross public debt ratio has gradually declined to a projected 
level  of  just  over  50%  of  GDP.  Tunisia  seems  relatively  well  placed  to  face  the  economic 
headwinds from the expected downturn in the global economy, although ongoing reforms are 
needed to increase resilience and bolster potential growth. That said, the worsening in external 
conditions certainly poses challenges. The rise in food prices experienced in the course of the 
year is burdening public finances via the extensive subsidies in place, and is expected to lead 
to an increase in government expenditure of around 0.8 pp of GDP in 2008. Consumer price 
inflation remained relatively stable over the summer, unlike the sharp rises witnessed in some 
other southern Mediterranean countries, and reached 4.5% in August. It seems, however, that 
a combination of government controls and delays in the pass-through of soaring commodity 
prices  through  the  supply  chain  entail  inflationary  pressures  in  the  pipeline.  The  further 
increase in the rate of producer price inflation to 13.8% in August testifies to this. 

Official  figures  forecast  real  GDP  growth  in  Morocco  at  6.8%  in  2008.  Recent  estimates, 
however, point to a rather more moderate growth rate around 6%. The economy continues to 
be  dependent  on  the  vagaries  of  agricultural  output  (the  agriculture  sector  still  accounts  for 
some  14%  of  GDP  and  employs  42%  of  the  population).  Overall  economic  growth  is  still 
vulnerable to agriculture volatility. Non-agricultural GDP growth reached 6.6% in 2007 and it 
should keep a steady growth trend at around 6% in 2008 and 2009. The overall fiscal deficit is 
projected to widen to  3.8%  in 2008 from a close-to-balance position in 2007, driven by the 
upward  surge  in  the  fiscal  cost  of  Morocco’s  universal  subsidy  scheme  following  the  sharp 
increase in world commodity and oil prices. The expansion in wages and the great increase in 
food  and  petroleum  subsidies  are  the  key  factors  behind  the  substantial  deterioration  of  the 
public  finances  in  2008.  Total  government  debt  was  54%  of  GDP  at  the  end  of  2007  down 
from 58% in 2006, although growing public deficits can put upward pressure on the forecast 
debt  level  for  the  future,  particularly  in  a  period  of  decreasing  privatization  revenues. 
Subsidies have helped keep inflationary pressures down, although the international food and 
oil price hikes have hit hard Morocco and consumption price inflation is forecast to average 
5% in 2008. The moderation of international commodity prices should help to bring inflation 
down  to  an  average  of  4.7%  in  2009.  The  external  environment  remains  shaped  by  a 
substantial  trade  deficit  standing  in  2007  at  19%  of  GDP.  Morocco’s  disappointing  trade 
performance is linked to scarce product and market diversification, a low productivity of the 
labour  force,  a  loss  of  competitiveness  in  international  markets,  and  the  failure  to  enforce 
some  trade  agreements.  Large  increases  in  tourism  revenues  and  remittances  have  been 
insufficient to offset the trade deficit resulting in a slightly negative current account balance 
standing at 0.1% of GDP in 2007. However, rising GDP is expected to consolidate the steady 
fall in the external debt-to-GDP ratio about 24% of GDP at the end of 2007.  

EN 

19 

   EN 

 
3. 

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR COUNTRY-RISK INDICATORS 

Standard footnotes 

a) 

b) 

Includes  only  EC  and  EIB  loans  (outstanding  disbursements)  to  CEEC,  NIS  and 
MED. 

The higher the ranking number, the lower the creditworthiness of the country. 

Countries  are  rated  on  a  scale  of  zero  to  185;  185  represents  the  least  chance  of 
default.  A  given  country  may  improve  its  rating  and  still  fall  in  the  ranking  if  the 
average global rating for all rated countries improves. 

Abbreviations and English words used in tables 

S&P 

CCFF 

EFF 

FDI 

GDP 

SBA 

STF 

est. 

m EUR 

bn USD 

n.a. 

Standard and Poor's 

Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility 

Extended Fund Facility 

Foreign Direct Investment 

Gross Domestic Product 

Stand-By Arrangement 

Systemic Transformation Facility 

estimates 

EUR million 

USD billion 

not available 

EN 

20 

   EN 

 
 
3.1. 

Country-risk indicators (tables): 

EN 

21 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Bosnia & Herzegovina 

footnotes

2006

2007

2008
   Forecast

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
   Federation
   Republika Srpska
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (12 month average)

Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)

(% of labour force)
(% change)

(1)

KM per EUR
KM per USD

6.7

7.5
19.1
44.2
6.1

1.96
1.49

6.8

8.6
1.4
42.9
1.5

1.96
1.33

General government balance (after grants)

(% of BiH GDP)

2.9

1.3

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
m EUR
   months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

3581
-8.4
561

2789
5.2

2082

138.1
87
51.1
21.3
58
3.8
none
yes

2.73
11.29
6.40

4053
-12.6
1468

3426
6.6

1997

122.3
70.8
51.5
18.5
49.1
3
none
yes

3.63
18.52
9.12

(2)

(2)

(2)
(2)
(2)

(a)

n.a

6.7
10.6
39.3
5
1.96
1.24

1712
n.a
300

3339
4.9

1983

n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
none
yes

3.61
19.22
11.13

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

B3
none
03/06  09/06
110   105
(185)   (185)

B2
none
03/07  09/07
104   107
(185)   (185)

B2
none
09/07  03/08
107    106
(185)   (185)

(b)

Footnotes
(1)
(2)
(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.

The April 2007 Labour Force Survey points to an unemployment rate of 29% of the labour force
External debt by the private sector is not included (not available).

EN 

22 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
Indicateurs de risque-pays

Pays: BRAZIL

Taux de croissance du PIB réel
Production industrielle
Taux de chômage (fin de période)
Taux d'inflation (IPC) (déc./déc.)
Taux de change (fin de période)

(%)
(variation en %)
(% de la main-d'oeuvre)
(variation en %)
(Reais pour EUR)

3.8
2.8
10.0
3.1
2.7

5.4
6
9.3
4.5

4.6
5
9.0
4.4

footnotes

2006

2007

2008

     Forecast

Solde des administrations publiques

(en % du PIB)

-2.8

-2.1

-1.6

Balance des paiements

Exportations de biens 
Balance des opérations courantes
Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers
Réserves officielles, or compris (fin de période)
   m EUR
 en mois d'importations de biens 

(m  EUR)
(en % du PIB)
(m  EUR)

Dette extérieure

Dette extérieure en devises convertibles
   (fin de période)
Service de la dette convertible
   principal
   intérêts
Dette extérieure/PIB
Dette extérieure/exportations de biens 
Service de la dette/exportations de biens 
Arriérés (intérêts et principal)
Accords d'allégement de la dette et de rééchelonnement

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)

Indicateurs du risque de l'UE

Risque UE/Risque total UE
Risque UE/Dette extérieure
Risque UE/Exportations de biens 

(%)
(%)
(%)

Accords FMI

Type
(Date)
En cours

Indicateurs de la solvabilité perçue par le marché

Cotation Moody's pour les emprunts en devises à long 
terme (fin de période)

Cotation S&P pour les emprunts en devises à long terme 
(fin de période)
Euromoney
   Position dans le classement
    (nombre de pays)

(a) (b)  See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables

(a)

(b)

109748
1.3
14973

68333
8.0

116800
0.3
25246

131127
14

123431
-0.7
21702

151441
15

158800

177960

168120

33340
23175
10165
18.7
145
34
no
no

5.69
0.38
0.45

na
na
na
18.5
152
na
no
no

4.35
0.26
0.36

na
na
na
15.0
136
na
no
no

4.49
0.34
0.46

No

No

No

Ba3

Ba1

Ba1

BB

BB+
03/06    09/06 03/07    09/07 09/07    03/08
67     66
(185)    (185)

66    63
(185)    (185)

69       66
(185)    (185)

BB+

EN 

23 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Croatia 

footnotes

2006

2007

2008
     Forecast

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate 

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(kuna per EUR)

4.8
4.5
11.2
2.1
7.3

5.6
5.6
11.0
5.8
7.3

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-2.5

-1.6

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
months' imports of goods and services

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)

16 998
-7.9
2 561
8 725
5.3

18 372
-8.6
3 419
9 307
5.2

29 274

32 929

5 949
5 864
833
85.5
172
35.0

6 063
5 975
805
87.9
179
33.0

3.8
4.3
14
6.2
7.28

1.3

7838
-8
1738
n.a
n.a

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services (a)

(%)
(%)
(%)

6.32
1.88
3.24

5.74
1.77
3.18

5.37
N/A
3.61

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

FootnoteSee explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
(a)

Precautionary stand-by 
programme Aug 2004 - Nov 2006
Successfully completed

Baa3
BBB

Baa3
BBB
03/06  09/0603/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
54    56 
(185)   (185(185)   (185 (185)   (185)

Baa3
BBB

56     54

56    56 

EN 

24 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Egypt

Real GDP growth rate

(%)

Unemployment (average)
Consumer price Inflation (average)
Exchange rate (end of period, + is depreciation of LE)

(% of labour force)
(% change)
(LE per EUR)

-1

6.8

11.5
4.2
7.2

7.1

9.5
11.0
7.5

7.2

8.9
11.7
8.1

footnotes

2006

2007

2008

   Forecast

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-9.2

-7.5

-7.8

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services f.o.b.
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD
   in months of next years imports of goods and services

(bn USD)
(% of GDP)
(bn USD)

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

(bn USD)

(bn USD)
(bn USD)
(bn USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)
(m USD)

35.9
1.6
6.0

22.9
5.9

29.6

59.6

27.6

1.7

42.5
1.7
10.5

28.6
6.1

29.9

54.7

22.8

1.3

56.6
0.5
12.1

34.6

33.9

60.0

20.1

1.1

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

(a)

17.92
N/A
5.86

16.49
N/A
5.96

17.70
8.68
5.20

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

Sources: International Monetary Fund.

Footnotes
(a) (b) See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.

-1 Officially registered unemployed.

(b)

-
-
-

-
-
-

Ba2
BB+

Ba1
BB+
03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
71      69
(185)   (185)

68     68
(185)   (185)

69    68
(185)   (185)

Ba1
BB+

EN 

25 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

footnotes

2006

2007

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(L£ per USD)

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)

(%)
(%)
(%)

(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(2)

(1)

(1)
(1)
(1)

(1)
(1)

(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)

(a)

(1)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR
   months' imports of goods and services

Convertible currency external debt (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal 
   interest 
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services 
Debt service/exports of goods and services 
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

Type
(Date)
On track

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

3.90
0.80
36.00
3.20
61.20

5.00
2.70
35.80
2.00
61.20

2008
Forecast

6.00
12.00
33.80
9.30
61.20

-0.50

0.60

2.50

2445.89
-0.9
344.6

1416.7
5.10

2495.2
455.6
389.9
65.6
49.1
102.02
18.63
none
none

3077.9
-3.0
240.1

1524.4
5.30

2711.5
323.5
295.5
28.1
50.4
88.10
10.51
none
none

1675.8
-134.0
279.4

1628.1
3.50

3008.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
55.9
97.75
n.a.
none
none

2.47
11.33
9.32

2.62
9.82
8.63

2.61
9.17
8.23

SBA

SBA
08/05-08/08 08/05-08/08 08/05-08/08
yes

expired 

SBA

yes

none
none

none
none
03/06  09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
82    83
(185)   (185)

83 79
(185)   (185)

83   82
(185)   (185)

none
none

(1)     The arrangement expired end of August. For the time being, no follow-up arrangement is envisaged.
(a)

See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables

EN 

26 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Georgia

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m USD
   months' imports of goods and services

External debt

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Lari per USD)

(% of GDP)
(commitments)

(m USD)
(% of GDP)
(m USD)

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(m USD)

(m USD)
(m USD)
(m USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

Footnotes
(a) (b)

See explanatory notes.

footnotes

2006

2007

9.4
15.9
13.6
8.8
1.71

12.4
15.0
13.3
11.0
1.59

2008
Forecast

3.5
n.a.
n.a.
8.0
n.a.

-3.0

-4.7

-6.3

2567
-15.9
1076

881
2.2

1697

270
234.4
36.0
21.9
66
7.2
0
no

0.98
6.62
4.50

3240
-20.0
1562

1361
3.2

1790

171
131.7
38.9
17.8
57
5.3
0
no

0.64
5.19
2.94

3500
-20.8
1200

1270
2.5

2800

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
21.0
80
n.a.
0
no

0.61
3.62
2.90

PRGF

PRGF
(06/04-06/07) (06/04-06/07) (09/08-03/10)
yes

Stand-by

yes

yes

none
none

none
none
03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
119     125
(185)   (185)

106    120
(185)   (185)

125   126
(185)   (185)

none
none

(a)

(b)

EN 

27 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Lebanon

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(L£ per USD)

(% of GDP)
(% of GDP)
(% of GDP)

(m USD)
(% of GDP)
(m USD)
(gross useable)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production (period average)
Unemployment rate (average)
Inflation rate (CPI, av)
Exchange rate (av)

General government overall balance
Primary balance
Total government debt

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m USD
   months' imports of goods and services

External (foreign currency) government debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
Foreign currency debt/GDP
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(m USD)

(m USD)
(m USD)
(m USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)
(m USD)

footnotes

2006

2007

0.0
n.a.
n.a.
5.6
1508

-11.1
1.7
177

4
n.a.
n.a.
4.1
1508

-12
0.8
171

2008
Forecast

6.0
n.a
n.a
12.4
1508

-9.2
2.6
143

2 715 
-6.0
2 723

16 014 
17.5

3 681
-10.7
2 297

17 417
15.7

4 565 
-9.4
n.a.

22 838 
16.1

20 330 

21 221

21 550 

1 677 
n.a.
n.a.
90.0 
93.4 
748 
61.7 
n.a.
n.a.

1 511 
n.a.
n.a.
84
86.1
576
41
n.a.
n.a.

1 534 
n.a
n.a
n.a
76.9 
472 
33.6
n.a
n.a

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

3.79
2.14
16.01

3.47
2.45
14.15

4.74
3.66
17.27

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

Sources: IMF

-
-
-

-
-
-

EPCA II
adopted 3-11
-

B3
B-

B3
B-
03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07   03/08
111    116
(185)   (185)

98    106
(185)   (185)

116    127
(185)   (185)

B3  
CCC+

EN 

28 

   EN 

 
      
      
    
    
    
    
      
      
      
        
        
        
         
         
        
Country-risk indicators

Country: Montenegro

footnotes

2006

2007

2008
Forecast

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(EUR per EUR)

8.6
1.0
14.7
2.8
1.0

8.2
0.1
11.9
7.7
1.0

General government balance

(% of GDP)

2.7

7.4

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)

920.9
-24.7
475.0

310.3
2.7

889

n.a.

44.9
94.2
n.a.
0
yes

1 333.8
-34.1
524.9

490.4
2.6

1 164

n.a.

52.8
87.2
n.a.
0
yes

8.0
4.1
11.6
9.0
1.0

3.0

473.6
-39.1
311.5

526.9
2.8

1 457

n.a.

59.4
:
n.a.
0
yes

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

0.86 
8.40 
8.10 

0.62 
5.41 
4.84 

0.51 
3.67 
5.65 

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

none

none

none

none

Baa1
BB/Positive/B  BB+/Stable/B BB+/Negative/B
03/07   09/07
03/06  09/06
none
none
(185)   (185)
(185)   (185)

09/0703/08
none
(185)   (185)

Baa1

EN 

29 

   EN 

 
             
            
                
             
            
                
             
            
                
Country-risk indicators

Country: Morocco 

Real GDP growth rate

(%)

Unemployment (average)
Wholesale price Inflation (average)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(% of labour force)
(% change)
(MDH per USD)

(a)

7.8

9.7
3.3
8.8

2.7

9.8
2
8.2

6.5

…
5
…

footnotes

2006

2007

2008

   Forecast

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-2.3

-0.5

-3.8

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services f.o.b.
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   bn USD
   in months of next years imports of goods and services

(bn USD)
(% of GDP)
(bn USD)

35.1
2.2
2.0

20.2
7.0

41.5
-0.1
1.9

24.0
6.5

-0.7
…

28.2
6.8

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(bn USD)

(bn USD)
(bn USD)
(bn USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)
(m USD)

23.9

23.8

21.1

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

(1)

13.62 
N/A

4.45 

12.52 
N/A

4.52 

17.18 
N/A
N/A

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

-
-
-

-
-
-

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

(2)

Sources: International Monetary Fund.

Footnotes
(1) (2) 
(a)

See explanatory notes at beginning of tables.
Officially registered unemployed.

Ba2
BB+

Ba1
BB+
03/06  09/06  03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08
65    65
(185)   (185)

65    66
(185)   (185)

66     65
(185)   (185)

BA1
BBB-

EN 

30 

   EN 

 
         
        
        
           
          
Country-risk indicators

Country: Serbia 

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (RPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

footnotes

2006

2007

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(CSD per EUR)

5.7
4.7
21.6
12.7
83.91

7.5
3.7
18.8
6.8
79.90

2008
    forecast

7.3
4.2
15.1
11.6
81.66

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-1.5

-1.9

-0.4

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

(1)

(a)

(2)

(b)

6 649
-9.4
3 235

9 025
9.5

8 087
-12.4
1 505

9 641
8.2

NA
-18.9
NA

NA
NA

14 876

17 983

1 974
NA
NA
58.4
224
29.7
301
yes

7.70
4.51
10.10

-
-
-

2 140
NA
NA
62.0
222
26.5
1 763
no

7.97
4.52
10.04

-
-
-

7.97
N/A
N/A

none
BB-

none
BB-
03/06   09/06 03/07   09/07 09/07    03/08
87     87
(185)   (185)

104    93
(185)   (185)

87    88
(185)   (185)

none
BB-

Footnotes

(1)

In November 2001, the Paris Club creditors agreed on a highly concessional two-phased debt restructuring of 66% in NPV terms.

The first phase (51%) became effective in May 2002 when the IMF adopted the new three-year Extended Arrangement (EA); 

the second phase (15%) will become effective upon successful completion on the EA.

(2)
(a) (b)  

Serbia B+, Montenegro BB. (2006)
See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.

EN 

31 

   EN 

 
Country: South Africa

footnotes

2006

2007

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(SAR per EUR)

5.4
6.2
25.5
4.7
9.31

5.1
5.8
23.0
7.1
10.04

2008
forecast

3.5
4.5
22.9
11.3
12.00

General government balance

(% of GDP)

0.4

0.9

0.5

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR
   months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt to official creditors/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

in bn US $
(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)

76.2
60658
-6.5

$25,6bn
32159
3.3

89.5
65293
-7.3

$33,0bn
45234
3.4

108.6
74282.4
-9.0

$36.6bn
53509
3.4

2.0

7.0
none
none

1.8

1.6

none
none

none
none

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

(a)

8.27 

N/A

1.54 

9.01 

N/A

1.72 

N/A

5.65 

0.80 

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

none

none

none

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

Baa1
BBB+
03/06   09/06
          55      55
(185)  (185)

Baa1
BBB+

Baa1
BBB+

03/07  09/07 09/07  03/08

55      55
(185)  (185)

55    55
(185)  (185)

(b)

(a) (b)  

See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.

EN 

32 

   EN 

 
                
          
          
                
          
          
Country-risk indicators

Country: Turkey

footnotes

2006

2007

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(TL per EUR)

6.9
5.8
9.9
9.6
1.80

4.6
5.4
9.9
8.8
1.78

2008
forecast

4.2
2.5
10.2
9.9
1.88

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-0.1

-1.2

-1.1

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)
   m EUR
   months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt
   (end of period)
Convertible currency debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

(m EUR)
(% of GDP)
(m EUR)

(m EUR)

(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(m EUR)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m EUR)

67724
-6.1
15004

48139
5.9

72815
-5.7
13427

48438
5.3

78290
-6.3
8862

46016
4.8

142857

133808

165000

98901
76815
22086
35.1
210.9
146.0
none
none

92637
69296
23341
32.1
183.8
127.2
none
none

100000
74804
25196
36.9
210.8
127.7
none
none

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

(a)

22.63
1.47
2.91

24.51
1.99
3.14

39.10
2.50
5.27

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

SBA
(05/08)
yes

SBA
(05/08)
yes

SBA
(until 05/08)
yes

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

(b)

(a) (b)  

See explanatory notes at beginning of the tables.

Ba3
BB-

Ba3
BB-
03/06   09/06 03/07  09/07 09/07    03/08
69     68
(185)   (185)

68    69
(185)   (185)

71    69
(185)   (185)

Ba3
BB-

EN 

33 

   EN 

 
Country-risk indicators

Country: Ukraine

footnotes

2006

2007

2008
(forecast)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production 
Unemployment (ILO definition)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Hryvnia per USD)

General government balance

(% of GDP)

Balance of payments

External debt

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, (end of period)
   m USD
   months' imports of goods and services

Public external debt
   (end of period)
Public external debt service
   principal
   interest
External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

(m USD)
(% of GDP)
(m USD)

(m USD)

(m USD)
(m USD)
(m USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)
(m USD)

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

(%)
(%)
(%)

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney
   Position in the ranking 
   (number of countries)

Footnotes
(a) (b)

See explanatory notes.

7.3
6.2
7.4
11.6
5.05

-1.3

50239
-1.5
5737

21900
4.2

14800

2590
1675
915
12.2
25.7
5.1
no
no

0.73
0.61
0.17

7.6
10.2
6.7
16.6
5.05

-2.0

64001
-3.7
9218

32460
5.3

15600

2500

10.7
23.6
3.9
no
no

0.86
0.78
0.19

6.4
n.a.
n.a.
18.5
n.a.

-1.2

75000
-7.2
12700

36500
5.0

15500

2200

8.5
20.5
3.0
no
no

0.76
0.82
0.17

None

None

None

B2
BB-
03/06   09/06
78     78
(185)  (185)

Ba3
BB-
03/07  09/07
76     80
(185)  (185)

B1
BB-
09/07 03/08
80     76
(185)  (185)

(a)

(b)

EN 

34 

   EN