Commission staff working document accompanying the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - New Skills for New Jobs  - Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs {COM(2008) 868 final}
Date: 2008-12-16
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: economic and social cohesion, employment policy, labour market, new type of employment, professional qualifications, vocational training

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COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 16.12.2008 
SEC(2008) 3058 

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 

accompanying the 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

New Skills for New Jobs  
Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs 

{COM(2008) 868 final} 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

1.1. 

1.2. 

1.3. 

2. 

INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 4 

Purpose of the Staff Working Document ..................................................................... 4 

Rationale....................................................................................................................... 4 

Early identification of skills needs: main concepts, strengths and weaknesses ........... 5 

A FIRST ASSESSMENT OF JOBS AND SKILLS NEEDS IN EUROPE UP 
TO 2020........................................................................................................................ 9 

2.1. 

Overall trends in job creation and labour supply ....................................................... 10 

2.1.1.  Sector trends: service activities still expanding ......................................................... 10 

2.1.2.  The size of the workforce: current trends and anticipated developments .................. 13 

2.1.3.  Quantitative imbalances in labour demand and supply.............................................. 16 

2.2. 

Evolving skills demand and supply: risks and opportunities ..................................... 19 

2.2.1.  Higher skills requirements: the result of various factors............................................ 19 

2.2.2.  Rising inequalities as a consequence of shifts in skills demand? .............................. 28 

2.2.3.  Skills matches and mismatches .................................................................................. 31 

3. 

3.1. 

ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING: AN EVALUATION OF EXISTING 
PRACTICES AT NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.......................... 37 

Mapping and evaluation of anticipatory tools at international level and in 
European countries..................................................................................................... 37 

3.1.1.  Measuring skill shortages........................................................................................... 37 

3.1.2.  Quantitative model-based projections........................................................................ 38 

3.1.3.  Surveys ....................................................................................................................... 41 

3.1.4.  Foresight: examples at sectoral or regional level ....................................................... 44 

3.1.5.  Towards holistic approaches? .................................................................................... 50 

3.1.6. 

Issues arising from the review of anticipatory tools: is Europe lagging behind? ...... 52 

3.2. 

Mapping and evaluation of matching policies in Europe........................................... 52 

3.2.1.  Changes in policies and practice resulting from anticipation and assessment of 

skill needs................................................................................................................... 53 

3.2.2.  Matching processes involving employers and social partners ................................... 62 

3.2.3. 

Issues arising from the review of matching policies .................................................. 66 

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4. 

5. 

References .................................................................................................................. 66 

Annexes...................................................................................................................... 72 

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

1.1. 

Purpose of the Staff Working Document 

This  staff  working  paper  accompanies  the  Communication  on  ‘New  Skills  for  New  Jobs’.  It 
presents  the  empirical  and  theoretical  evidence  upon  which  the  policy  messages  of  the 
Communication are based. Section 2 provides a first assessment of the skills and labour market 
needs of the EU up to 2020 and identifies the possible risks of mismatches between supply and 
demand. This first analysis needs to be followed by continuous efforts to anticipate and match 
future skills and labour market needs.  

A decision to introduce comprehensive and regular assessments at EU level up to 2020 should 
take account of existing initiatives and instruments to anticipate labour market trends and skills 
needs not only at EU level, but also at regional and sectoral level. Section 3 presents an analysis 
of the state of play across Europe. 

The document is based upon and has been informed by: 

- The Cedefop reports, Future skill needs in Europe: Synthesis report and Future skill needs in 
Europe: Focus on 2020. 

-  The  report  of  the  European  Experts  Network  on  the  Economics  of  Education  on  this  topic, 
entitled Origins and consequences of changes in Labour Market Skills Needs. 

- Responses from the Eurydice network on the topic and analysed by GHK during the summer 
of 2008. 

- Responses of the European Employment Observatory’s SYSDEM correspondents on the topic 
and analysed by GHK during the summer of 2008. 

-  The  CEDEFOP  discussion  paper,  Systems  for  anticipation  of  skills  needs  in  EU  Member 
States, based on the analysis of answers from various networks of national experts and policy 
makers (ReferNet; DGVET; Skillsnet). 

- General literature and published reports on the demand for and supply of skills in the EU until 
2020 and beyond and commentaries on labour market forecasting and other anticipatory tools. 

- A specific report produced on behalf of the Commission1

. 

1.2. 

Rationale 

Nobody is able to predict precisely what the future will hold, but everyone has to prepare and 
plan  in  order  to  avoid  undesirable  outcomes  and  to  make  the  most  of  the  opportunities  they 
encounter. The sum of these individual plans and choices will influence the future path taken 
by  Europe  as  a  whole.  These  plans  and  choices  need  to  be  guided  by  robust  labour  market 

1 

Report  commissioned  from  GHK  with  contributions  from  Professor  Rob  Wilson,  Professor  Klaus 
Schömann, Dr Frank Cörvers and Dr Sylvie-Anne Meriot. 

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information,  including  a  prospective  element.  The  key  question  therefore  is  not  whether  an 
attempt  should  be  made  to  anticipate  the  future,  but  rather  how  to  go  about  it2
.  Rather  than 
relying on luck, or upon individuals’ own (possibly ill-informed) judgments, those involved in 
producing projections argue that  there is a case for the State providing such information as a 
public good, based on the application of transparent, systematic and scientific methods.  

The essential rationale for forecasting and the basis for the public sector funding of forecasting 
and the associated data collection is that labour markets are imperfect and that there are long 
and  variable  lags  between  decisions  on  investment  in  skills  and  when  these  are  finally 
available. Without such information there are likely to be more or greater mismatches in labour 
supply  and  demand.  This  is  likely  to  be  reflected  in  a  combination  of  wage  inflation, 
unemployment,  unfilled  vacancies  and  associated  inefficiencies.  Hence,  by  funding  data 
collection and forecasting work the public sector is providing a public good available to public 
and private sector actors to help inform decisions to invest in improving human capital. 

The assessment and anticipation of skills and labour market needs is seen as a key instrument: 
for the efficient functioning of labour markets and the mobility of labour within the EU; for a 
better  match  between  labour  supply  and  demand  to  reduce  bottlenecks;  and  for  a  better 
definition of the content and structure of education and training systems as they seek to develop 
human resources, skills levels, creativity and entrepreneurship. Many Member States currently 
carry out such activities, but until recently little has been done at pan-European level. Given the 
increasing  interdependency  of  European  labour  markets  and  the  growth  in  cross-border 
mobility, the case for a pan-European assessment has strengthened. 

While this approach is important for policy (especially in education and training provision), it 
has  an  equally  important  role  in  providing  robust  information  for  individual  citizens  and 
organisations.  In  a  rapidly  changing  economic  and  social  environment,  policy-makers, 
practitioners and citizens have to be able to identify and respond promptly to new skill needs. 
Such decisions should depend on reliable information provided by research.  

1.3. 

Early identification of skills needs: main concepts, strengths and weaknesses 

There  is  a  long  tradition  of  forecasting  skills  needs  in  Europe3.  Recently,  the  terms  ‘labour 
market  assessment’,  ‘anticipation’  and  ‘early  identification  of  skills  needs’  have  become 
popular. These terms are used as umbrella concepts for the various tools and studies to better 
anticipate skills needs.  

The  earliest  work  in  the  skills  area  used  terms  like  ‘manpower  planning’,  which  involved 
estimating the numbers of scientists, engineers and the like needed to produce a unit of output 
in the various sectors of the economy. Many labour and education ministries across the western 
world  were  engaged  in  such  ‘manpower  forecasting’.  At  that  time,  forecasters  adopted 
scientific methods based on the assumption of fixed and invariant links between the demand for 
goods and services and the demand for various types of labour. It was argued that this approach 
could be used to predict the major skills needed to ensure economic growth. 

2 
3 

Wilson, 2007a and b. 
There  have  been  many  reviews  of  the  history  of  skills  forecasting  (for  example  see  Neugart  and 
Schömann (2002), Wilson et al. (2004), Wilson (2008a) and Cedefop (2008)). 

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However,  the  first  evaluations  of  the  results  of  ‘manpower  forecasting’  in  the  UK  during  the 
1970s and the emerging human capital theory and its application led to criticism of this method. 
The  main  criticisms  were  that:  the  models  were  static;  they  did  not  take  account  of  the 
interactions between supply and demand nor of wider changes and influences on skills needs; 
and  they  ignored  the  possibility  of  substitution  both  between  different  types  of  skills  (and 
sectors) and between capital and labour. The models also suffered from the lack of good data. 

Since  these  early  beginnings,  there  have  been  huge  improvements  in  the  data  available  to 
undertake such work and in the methods and tools used to analyse and exploit this information. 
These changes have addressed many of the criticisms made of the early pioneers, for example 
by  now  permitting  (where  the  data  allow)  the  modelling  of  interactions  between  supply  and 
demand and allowing for substitution possibilities and other economic links. 

There  is  now  a  vast  range  of  different  tools  and  techniques  for  anticipating  changing  skill 
needs4. The main general approaches include: 

i. 

Formal, national-level, quantitative, model-based projections; 

Surveys of employers or other groups (these approaches may include some quantitative 

ii. 
aspects but are generally more qualitative); 

iii. 
Ad  hoc  sectoral  or  occupational  studies  (involving  both  quantitative  and  qualitative 
methods), focusing on the situation in particular areas (which may involve elements of both i 
and ii. 

iv. 
Foresight  analysis  using  scenario  development  exercises  based  on  expert  opinion 
(including  setting  up  ‘observatories’,  focus  groups,  round  tables  and  other  Delphi-style 
methods, to reach a consensus view) 

Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses (see Table 3.1). Ideally, a variety of different 
methods  should  be  used,  allowing  them  to  inform  and  support  each  other,  rather  than  seeing 
them as mutually exclusive or competing alternatives. No single approach has the monopoly on 
‘truth’  nor  can  a  single  method  provide  a  full  and  complete  picture:  both  qualitative  and 
quantitative assessments are needed. All such projections should be seen as part of an ongoing 
process  rather  than  the  final  word.  Together  they  can  provide  the  various  participants  in  the 
labour  market,  as  well  as  policy  makers,  with  useful  insights  into  how  labour  markets  are 
developing in response to various external influences.  

Some critics focus on the accuracy of such projections, but this is to misunderstand the aim of 
much  social  science  forecasting,  which  is  to  anticipate  and  avoid  undesirable  outcomes.  Of 
course such work  needs  to  be  carried out in a robust fashion, but it is important to recognise 
that accurate and precise forecasts are not achievable. The key question to ask is not whether or 
not such projections are accurate, but whether or not they are useful.  

The  revealed  preferences  of  national  governments  and  other  organisations  from  all  over  the 
world, who support such activities with substantial funding, suggest that they are considered to 

4 

Wilson, 2008a. 

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have considerable value. It is also important to recognise that such work has a wide variety of 
different  audiences  and  users,  including  career  guidance,  general  labour  market  policy 
formation, and the planning of education and training programmes. Few, if any, countries now 
regard such work as a source of information that can be used to plan the scale and pattern of 
education and training provision with any precision. Rather it is carried out in order to inform 
all those involved about how economic and other forces are shaping the labour markets, and the 
likely general implications for the future. 

It  is  also  important  to  emphasise  that  the  different  approaches  may  be  suited  to  different 
audiences and purposes. Scenario development, for example, is ideal when the aim is to involve 
participants and to explore alternative possible futures. The actual process of carrying out the 
scenario  development  is  often  a  critical  output,  and  participation  is  necessary  to  gain  the  full 
benefits. This is ideal for situations involving small numbers of policy makers trying to explore 
the threats and opportunities they are facing. In contrast, detailed quantitative projections may 
be ideal where the prime aim is to provide useful labour market information and intelligence to 
support large numbers of individuals making choices5

.  

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For further details see Wilson (2008a). 

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Table 3.1: Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches to anticipating skill requirements 

Alternative approaches 

Advantages 

Formal, 
national-level, 
model-based projections 

quantitative, 

Comprehensive 

Consistent 

Transparent 

Quantitative 

Disadvantages 

Data hungry 

Costly 

Not everything can be quantified 

May  give  a  misleading 
precision 

impression  of 

In-depth  sectoral  or  occupational  studies 
(using  a  variety  of  quantitative  (model-
based) and qualitative methods) 

Surveys  of  employers  or  other  groups, 
asking  questions  of  fact  and  opinion 
about  skills,  skill  deficiencies  and  skill 
gaps 

Strong on sectoral specifics 

Partial 

Can be inconsistent across sectors 

Direct ‘user/customer’ involvement 

Can be very subjective 

Inconsistent 

Can  too  easily  focus  on  the  margins  (i.e. 
current  vacancies)  rather  than  skill  needs 
within the whole workforce 

Focus groups, round tables 

Holistic 

Observatories 

Less demanding data requirements 

Delphi-style methods 

Direct ‘user/customer’ involvement 

Non-systematic 

Can be inconsistent 

Can be subjective 

Scenario development, Foresight  

Source Wilson (2008a). 

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2. 

A  FIRST  ASSESSMENT  OF  JOBS  AND  SKILLS  NEEDS  IN  EUROPE  UP  TO 
2020 

This section begins with an explanation of overall trends in job creation and labour supply, in 
order  to  estimate  the  risk  of  labour  shortages.  It  then  turns  to  the  trends  in  skills  needs, 
occupation structures and skills supply using both quantitative and qualitative studies. This part 
not only looks at the education attainment level, but also at the concrete skills, knowledge and 
competences required, above the formal attainment (see box 2.1 for a clear definition of each 
concept).  The  second  part  examines  the  issue  of  skills  gaps  and  the  related  risk  of  rising 
inequalities.  Skills  gaps  refer  to  qualitative  mismatches  between  the  skills  supplied  by  the 
workforce  and  the  demand  for  skills  on  the  part  of  employers.  Such  mismatches  can  affect 
market  prices  on  the  labour  market  (i.e.  the  wages  of  workers  with  different  skills), 
productivity,  economic  growth  and  job  creation.  This  section  aims  to  disentangle  these 
differing but interrelated issues.  

Box 2.1 Skills, qualification, competences and knowledge: definitions 

The education attainment levels are formalised in the well-known ISCED levels. These levels 
are mostly related to the length of schooling and the institutions that deliver the diploma. On 
the contrary, the European Qualification Framework will try to base the qualification process 
on the "learning outcomes", defined in terms of knowledge, skills and competences. It provides 
a clear definition of all these related concepts:  

-  “qualification”  means  a  formal  outcome  of  an  assessment  and  validation  process  which  is 
obtained when a competent body determines that an individual has achieved learning outcomes 
to given standards; 

- “learning outcomes” means statements of what a learner knows, understands and is able to do 
on  completion  of  a  learning  process,  which  are  defined  in  terms  of  knowledge,  skills  and 
competence; 

-  “knowledge”  means  the  outcome  of  the  assimilation  of  information  through  learning. 
Knowledge  is  the  body  of  facts,  principles,  theories  and  practices  that  is  related  to  a  field  of 
work  or  study.  In  the  context  of  the  European  Qualifications  Framework,  knowledge  is 
described as theoretical and/or factual; 

- “skills” means the ability to apply knowledge and use know-how to complete tasks and solve 
problems.  In  the  context  of  the  European  Qualifications  Framework,  skills  are  described  as 
cognitive (involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking) or practical (involving 
manual dexterity and the use of methods, materials, tools and instruments); 

- “competence” means the proven ability to use knowledge, skills and personal, social and/or 
methodological  abilities,  in  work  or  study  situations  and  in  professional  and  personal 
development.  In  the  context  of  the  European  Qualifications  Framework,  competence  is 
described in terms of responsibility and autonomy 

Source: Recommendation of the European Parliament and of the Council (April 2008) on the establishment of the 
European Qualifications Framework for lifelong learning 

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2.1. 

Overall trends in job creation and labour supply 

2.1.1. 

Sector trends: service activities still expanding 

While there are many studies and research projects that identify trends in labour demand, these 
most often focus on specific sectors and/or a selection of European countries. The CEDEFOP 
publication ‘Future Skill Needs in Europe - Focus on 2020’ examines Europe’s labour market 
as a whole (see box 2.2 for a detailed presentation of the data and methodology used). It argues 
that  the  general  shift  in  Europe  away  from  the  primary  sector  (especially  agriculture)  and 
traditional manufacturing industries towards services and the knowledge-intensive economy is 
likely to continue. Although employment in many new EU Member States still relies to a great 
extent on agriculture and manufacturing, there are clear signs that this is changing rapidly. By 
the year 2020, almost three quarters of jobs in the EU will be in services. 

Distribution, transport, hotels and catering together are projected to see employment grow by 
more than 4.5 million over the next decade, while non-market services are expected to increase 
by  slightly  more  (4.7  million).  Business  and  miscellaneous  services  have  the  best  prospects, 
with  more  than  13.6  million  additional  jobs  being  created  between  2006  and  2020  in 
CEDEFOP’s  baseline  scenario.  A  more  detailed  picture  of  job  creation  among  the  service 
sector is available, up to 2015 (see figure 2.1). Strong positive trends are expected in business 
services  (such  as  IT,  insurance  or  consultancy);  health  care  and  social  work,  distribution, 
personal services, hotels and catering, and to a lesser extent education.  

Figure 2.1 Past and future trends in employment levels in the service sector, in millions 

s
b
o

j

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o

i
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M

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

6
9
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1

7
9
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1

8
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

0
0
0
2

1
0
0
2

2
0
0
2

3
0
0
2

4
0
0
2

5
0
0
2

6
0
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2

7
0
0
2

8
0
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2

9
0
0
2

0
1
0
2

1
1
0
2

2
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

Forecast

Distribution

Other business services

Health and social work

Public admin and defence

Education

Transport &
telecommunications

Miscellaneous services

Hotels and catering

Banking & insurance

Source: Cedefop, 2008 

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All  things  considered,  over  19.6  million  additional  jobs  are  expected  to  be  created  between 
2006 and 2020 in the EU-25 in the baseline scenario considered by CEDEFOP. However, the 
actual  number  of  jobs  created  will  depend  on  the  global  economic  environment.  The  current 
financial crisis and its impact on the real economy make the pessimistic scenario produced by 
Cedefop more probable. The more pessimistic scenario projects the generation of fewer jobs in 
the service sector, but still growth. (see figure 2.2). In this scenario, the employment decline of 
manufacturing will be stronger. The present crisis may accelerate the foreseen restructuring in 
these sectors. However, even in the pessimistic scenario, the manufacturing sector should still 
account  for  more  than  33  million  jobs  in  2015:  this  sector  would  still  correspond  to  an 
important part of jobs in some European regions. In addition, some regions would experience 
positive trends in manufacturing as a result of the transfer of jobs from older to newer Member 
States. Lastly, in some industries (for example engineering), demand will outstrip productivity 
gains and create new jobs. The primary sector and utilities are expected to decline significantly 
in all cases.  

Figure  2.2  Trends  by  broad  sectors  according  to  different  scenarios,  change  in  000s  (2005-
2015) 

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Million jobs

Primary sector & utilities

-2,3
-2,3
-2,3

Manufacturing

Construction

-0,5

-1,2

-0,1

0,4

0,4

1,1

Baseline scenario

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Distribution & transport

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

3,5

4,4

2,7

3,2

3,8

1,5

8,9

10,5

7,4

All industries

13,3

18,0

8,1

Source: Cedefop (2008).  

Box 2.2: Cedefop forecasts: methodology and data 

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The Cedefop forecast has adopted a modular approach to exploring skill needs focusing on four 
key components (modules): 

The  first  key  component  is  a  multisectoral  macroeconomic  model,  called  E3ME  (Energy- 
environment-economy  model  of  Europe).  Using  the  classical  Leontief  input-output  tables,  it 
considers the links between economic sectors. In addition, it takes into account the interactions 
between  the  economy,  energy  supply  and  demand,  and  environment  (E3),  as  well  as  the 
contribution  of  research  and  development,  and  associated  technological  innovation,  and  the 
dynamics of growth. E3ME’s parameters are estimated empirically, using historical time series 
data covering the period 1970-2004. This means that behavioural relationships in the forecast 
are determined by past trends. There may be cases where this is not appropriate, in particular in 
new Member States where data series are shorter (1993-2004) and cover a period of transition. 
To  compensate  partially  for  this  E3ME  assumes  that  in  the  long  term  there  is  convergence 
between  the  EU’s  new  members  and  the  previous  EU-15  in  terms  of  the  key  economic 
relationships  and  parameters  embedded  in  the  model.  It  also  uses  Eurostat  population 
projections  as  an  input.  Based  on  Eurostat  National  Accounts  (NA)  estimates,  this  model 
provides consistent projections of employment levels by sector/industry. Of course, in addition 
to providing projections of sectoral employment, such models can be used for a wide variety of 
other purposes, including more general macroeconomic policy analysis. E3ME has been set up 
to explore alternative scenarios. This includes broad assessment of the sensitivity of outcomes 
to  some  key  external  drivers  (such  as  the  global  economic  demand).  A  baseline  forecast, 
constructed from a set of accepted European Commission economic projections was developed 
as a benchmark for two alternative scenarios, one with a positive and one with a more negative 
outlook. 

The second key component is a module which translates the employment projections from the 
multisectoral  model  into  implications  for  the  expansion  demand  for  occupations.  The  third 
module,  very  similar  to  the  second  one,  focuses  on  the  implications  for  formal  education 
attainments.  

A key issue is the best data to be used to measure employment structure in Europe. Historically, 
most  countries  have  invested  considerable  resources  in  developing  data  for  their  National 
Accounts (NA). In many respects estimates of employment on this basis are to be preferred as 
they are consistent with other key economic indicators such as output and productivity. More 
recently, greater emphasis has been placed on estimates of employment based on the European 
Labour  Force  Survey  (LFS).  These  have  the  advantage  of  being  broadly  consistent  across 
countries  and  providing  a  measure  of  employment  structure  by  occupation  and  qualification 
that  is  not  available  from  the  NA  based  estimates.  Therefore  the  data  from  the  Labour  Force 
Survey  (LFS)  are  used  to  generate  the  occupational  and  qualification  estimates,  but  are 
constrained  to  match  National  Accounts  based  employment  totals.  The  occupational  and 
qualifications shares within sectors therefore reflect the patterns in the LFS data. 

Ideally, the second and third module should relate occupational and qualifications structure to 
technology and work organisation, price (wage) and other economic factors. In practice, time is 
the main independent variable acting as a proxy for technological change and other factors. 

The  fourth  module  estimates  the  ‘replacement  demand’.  On  the  demand  side  of  the  labour 
market it is important to make the distinction between demand that results from future changes 
in employment levels – expansion demand – and the so-called replacement demand, influenced 

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by  retirement,  mortality,  inter-occupational,  geographical  mobility  and  migration.  Obtaining 
robust  estimates  of  migration  flows  is  not  straightforward,  since  available  data  are  rarely 
adequate,  but  this  module  tries  to  estimate  the  impact  of  all  types  of  mobility,  including 
migration. 

In combination, the four modules deliver a comprehensive, consistent, detailed picture of future 
skill needs and job openings across Europe. The latter are defined as the sum of expansion and 
replacement demand. 

Source: Cedefop (2008).  

2.1.2.  The size of the workforce: current trends and anticipated developments 

Different  factors  can  influence  the  size  of  the  workforce:  demographic  factors,  participation 
rates, health issues, migration flows. In 2007 the active population in the EU, i.e. the total of 
those in employment and unemployment, was around 235 million on average6 According to the 
latest  population  projections  by  Eurostat7,  by  2060  the  working  age  population  of  the  EU  is 
projected to fall by almost 50 million even with continued net immigration similar to historical 
levels and by around 110 million without such immigration. Immigration in itself will not solve 
the demographic deficit, but it can cushion the impact of the demographic trends. Relying on 
immigration  to  replenish  the  population  in  Europe  is  a  high-risk  strategy  as  immigration  is 
projected  to  decline  by  20208
.  On  its  own,  immigration  is  insufficient  to  compensate  for  the 
decline  in  birth  rates  throughout  Europe.  On  the  other  hand,  the  potential  contribution  of 
immigration to EU economic performance is – and will most likely continue to be – significant. 
As recognised by the spring 2008 European Council and by the European Pact on Immigration 

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Eurostat, population and social conditions statistics. 
Eurostat  population  projections  EUROPOP2008,  2008-based  convergence  scenario,  convergence  year 
2150. 
GHK (2008), ‘Long-term social trends in Europe’. 

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13 

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and  Asylum  of  October  2008,  well  managed  economic  immigration  is  one  of  the  policies 
needed to help meeting the needs of the labour market and reducing present and future skills 
shortages.  

These  demographic  trends  are  expected  to  have  a  major  impact  on  the  supply  of  labour  in 
Europe.  Overall  participation  rates  (for  the  15-64  age  group)  in  the  EU-25  are  expected  to 
increase  over  the  coming  decades  and  the  overall  employment  rate  is  projected  to  rise  from 
65,5% in 2007 to 69% in 2020 (see Figure 2.3). The projected increase is mainly due to higher 
female employment rates, which will rise from 58,4% in 2007 to almost 63,4% by 2020. Even 
steeper is the projected increase in the employment rate of older workers, from 45% in 2007 to 
54,5% in 2020. In many countries, the youth employment rate has been falling until 2004/2005. 
This trend is explained by the higher proportion of persons completing secondary education and 
higher enrolment in tertiary education. However, in 2006 and 2007, the youth employment rate 
has increased in a majority of countries and is expected to reach 40% in 2020.  

Figure 2.3 Projected employment rates in the EU-27 

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2003

2007

2010
(p)

2015
(p)

2020
(p)

2003

2007

2010
(p)

2015
(p)

2020
(p)

2003

2007

2010
(p)

2015
(p)

2020
(p)

Total

Female

Older workers

Source: European Commission and Economic Policy Committee (2008) 

The total number of persons employed (15-64 years old) is projected to increase significantly 
up to 2019, but after 2019 the demographic effects of an ageing population will outweigh this 
effect. Three distinct periods can be identified9
. Between 2004 and 2012, both demographic and 
employment  developments  will  support  a  growing  labour  supply.  Between  2013  and  2019, 
rising employment rates will offset the stagnation and decline in the working-age population: 
during  this  period,  the  working-age  population  will  start  to  decline  as  the  baby-boom 
generation enters retirement. The ageing effect will dominate as from 2020, and the number of 
persons employed will fall (see Figure 2.4). 

9 

European  Commission  and  the  Economic  Policy  Committee  (2008),  'The  2009  Ageing  Report: 
Underlying  assumptions  and  projection  methodologies  for  the  EU-27  Member  States  (2007-2060)', 
European Economy, No. 9/2008. 

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14 

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Figure 2.4 Projected working-age population and total employment, EU27 

)
s
n
o

i
l
l
i

m

(

Rising employment and 
slow growth in working-
age population

rising employment 
despite the 
decline in working-
age

stagnation and 
decline of 
employment

340

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

70,0

68,0

66,0

64,0

62,0

60,0

58,0

Working-age population
Total employment
Employment rate (right scale)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Source: European Commission and Economic Policy Committee (2008) 

The challenges of anticipating labour supply in Europe 

Overall population projections and estimates of future labour supply provide robust trend data 
that can be compared with estimates of labour demand and the need for new skills. However, 
there are nevertheless some important challenges: 

- Uncertainties over life expectancy 

Life  expectancy  projections  are  subject  to  uncertainty.  Past  projections  from  official  sources 
have often underestimated the gains in life expectancy. 

- Labour supply is sensitive to labour demand.  

Employment  rates,  particularly  female  employment  rates  and  rates  among  older  and  younger 
workers,  markedly  affect  labour  supply  and  associated  activity  rates.  Employment  rates  are 
themselves sensitive to labour demand, the wage rates for different skill groups, and conditions 
affecting decisions to retire or otherwise become inactive. 

- Estimating third-country immigration to the EU.  

Compared  to  fertility  and  mortality,  immigration  flows  are  harder  to  predict  and  are  more 
volatile  and  subject  to  changes  in  political  and  institutional  factors.  The  data  on  immigration 
flows are sketchy and it is extremely difficult to project migration flows. The static snapshot of 
net immigration inflows on which the projections are based fails to capture the complexity of 
the  situation,  not  least  because  gross  flows  (both  inwards  and  outwards)  are  neglected. 
Moreover,  immigration  has  a  dynamic  impact  on  the  population  of  the  host  country,  and 
account needs to be taken of factors such as the extent to which migrants return to their home 

EN 

15 

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country,  family  reunification,  and  whether  the  fertility  and  mortality  patterns  of  migrants’ 
offspring  and  subsequent  generations  converge  to  those  of  the  host  country.  Migration  flows 
are  also  uncertain  due  to  the  influence  of  a  variety  of  push  and  pull  factors  in  both  host  and 
home  countries.  Natural  disasters,  war  and  political  instability  play  a  role,  but  these  are  too 
uncertain  to  project.  Relative  income  disparities  and  public  policy  towards  migrants  are  the 
major  determining  factors  of  migration  over  the  long  run.  Finally,  approaches  to  modelling 
migration  flows  vary  widely  across  official  agencies  throughout  the  EU,  notwithstanding  the 
progresses in the common EU immigration policy. 

- Estimating intra-EU migration.  

There has been a long tradition of intra-EU economic migration although the absolute numbers 
of workers involved have been low relative to the size of national labour markets. Enlargement 
has significantly affected these trends. The single market and efforts to encourage mobility may 
increase mobility and hence affect labour supply. However, anticipating the potential scale of 
such changes is problematic. 

- Estimating intra-Member State migration flows.  

Labour markets are to a large extent local and regional rather than national, and there have been 
and  continue  to  be  marked  inter-regional  and  rural/urban  (and  urban/rural)  migration 
movements  within  European  countries.  Data  on  such  trends  are  poor.  However,  such  trends 
have important consequences for effective levels of labour supply. Employers, dependent upon 
the local and regional labour supply, have a strong interest in anticipating such trends. 

- Estimating the characteristics of labour supply.  

While  the  characteristics  of  age,  educational  level,  gender,  and  to  a  lesser  extent  origin  of 
labour supply are relatively easy to forecast, some of the characteristics associated with likely 
success in the labour market are more difficult to identify, as formal occupational qualifications 
and experience become less relevant than generic competences that are more important for an 
individual’s competitiveness in the labour market, and as career paths become more complex.  

2.1.3.  Quantitative imbalances in labour demand and supply 

Imbalances in labour supply and demand are expected if the employment rate does not increase 
in the future. The CEDEFOP report Focus on 2020 anticipates that 19.6 million new jobs will 
be  created  by  2020  and  80  million  jobs  will  become  available  as  workers  retire  or  leave  the 
labour market for other reasons. The Eurostat baseline scenario estimates that the working-age 
population (15-64 years) for the EU-25 will decline from 308.6 million in 2006 to 302.5 million 
in  2020.  These  figures  imply  that  Europe  will  need  an  employment  rate  of  almost  74%  to 
satisfy labour market demand10. It has to be said that this is still a very preliminary estimation, 
as CEDEFOP will carry out its own forecasting of labour supply to allow better comparability 
between  demand  and  supply  forecasts.  Furthermore,  upgrading  skills  can  increase  the 
productivity of workers, and thus limit labour demand (in quantitative terms).  

10 

The  forecasts  of  supply  and  demand  used  here  are  based  on  the  same  data,  namely  LFS.  However, 
Cedefop will produce its own forecast of the supply side, to ensure a better comparability and to focus on 
the skills and education matters, so that imbalances can be analysis for each education attainment.  

EN 

16 

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Imbalances  already  exist  in  European  labour  markets,  which  face  high  unemployment  levels 
but at the same time a non-negligible number of unfilled jobs. The so-called ‘Beveridge curve’ 
can  indicate  the  state  of  current  balances  and  thus  the  quality  of  matching.  It  represents  the 
relation  between  the  unemployment  rate  (on  the  X  axis)  and  the  job  vacancy  rate  (on  the  Y 
axis), which is defined as the proportion of  unfilled jobs in the labour force (see Figure 2.4). 
The curve usually slopes downwards, as higher unemployment rates normally go in hand with 
lower job vacancies. It normally shows different values across time, but data on job vacancies 
at  European  level  have  been  gathered  only  very  recently.  Figure  2.9  presents  data  across 
countries  in  2007.  In  countries  where  unemployment  and  job  vacancies  are  low  (LU,  SI,  SE, 
LT),  the  matching  process  seems  very  good.  In  contrast,  the  matching  process  is  not 
satisfactory when both rates are high (e.g. DE).  

Figure 2.4: Job vacancy and unemployment rates in European countries 

e
t
a
r
y
c
n
a
c
a
v
b
o
J

5

4,5

4

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,5

1

0,5

0

0

Job vacancy rate and unemployment rate in different countries

CY

Bad matching

EE

DE

LT

UK

CZ

FI

LV

RO

MT

SE

Good matching

SI

BG

LU

BE

HU

GR

ES

PL

SK

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unemployment rate

Source: Eurostat, 2007 data 

A  high  job  vacancy  rate  could  reflect  a  shortage  of  some  kinds  of  skills,  in  particular  higher 
skills.  Shortages  of  technical  skills  have  also  been  reported  by  micro  and  small  enterprises11. 
These  shortages  hamper  the  competiveness  of  these  enterprises.  It  could  also  be  the  result  of 
bad  working  conditions  in  some  sectors.  For  example,  the  job  vacancy  rate  is  higher  in  the 
hotels and restaurants sector, which does not offer enough good jobs (6.6% in BE, 6.4% in CY, 
4.9%  in  DE,  3.9%  in  ES,  3.1%  in  FI,  2.9%  in  UK  and  CZ,  2.8%  in  PL).  More  qualitative 
studies of the commerce and tourism sectors also show that employers in these sectors will face 
shortages unless they improve the working and wage conditions of workers who have acquired 

11  

EN 

Communication 
COM(2008) 774 final - 28.11.2008 

from 

the  Commission  on 

the  European  Competitiveness  Report  2008 

17 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
                                                 
general  skills  (communication,  foreign  language)  also  valuable  in  other  sectors12.  Thirdly, 
tensions on the local labour markets and lack of mobility can cause higher job vacancy rates in 
some  regions13.  Lastly,  it  has  to  be  said  that  the  current  data  on  job  vacancies  and 
unemployment are contingent on the economic cycle. The 2007 data may be driven by short-
term  imbalances,  resulting  from  market  rigidities  or  slow  adjustment  processes,  but  not 
affecting  the  labour  market  in  the  long  term.  Therefore,  the  current  data  may  over-estimate 
imbalances, and long-term structural imbalances are probably less pronounced. 

The  same  caveat  also  applies  to  the  unemployment  and  employment  rates.  According  to  an 
updated  forecast,  the  current  financial  crisis  will  weaken  employment  development, 
notwithstanding  the  structural  reforms.  Unemployment  rate  is  expected  to  increase  in  2009: 
8.4%  compared  to  7.5%  in  200714.  However,  looking  beyond  short-term  imbalances,  a 
permanent feature of the labour market seems to be the lower unemployment rate and higher 
employment  rate  among  the  high-skilled  (see  Figure  2.6).  As  a  consequence,  educational 
upgrading seems to be the most relevant solution to current and anticipated imbalances on the 
labour market.  

Figure 2.6: employment rate and educational attainment for 15-64 year-olds (2007) 

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

e
g
a
t
n
e
c
r
e
P

0

EU27

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI

SK FI

SE UK HR TR NO

Below upper secondary education 

Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education

Tertiary education

Source: European Commission, 2008a 

12 

13 
14 

CEDEFOP  (2005),  ‘Trends  and  skills  needs  in  Tourism’;  Eurofound,  European  Monitoring  Centre  on 
Change (2007), ‘Trends and drivers of change in the European commerce sector: Four scenarios’. 
DARES (2002) and Conseil d’analyse stratégique (2007). 
European Commission (2008), "Economic Forecast. Autumn 2008", European Economy, No. 7/2008.  

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18 

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2.2. 

Evolving skills demand and supply: risks and opportunities 

2.2.1.  Higher skills requirements: the result of various factors 

Several factors have influenced the trends and shifts in skills demand. The main factors driving 
these  trends  are:  technological  change;  organisational  change;  and  globalisation  and 
international trade. Climate change and environmental challenges will also have a major impact 
across  the  economy.  The  changing  characteristics  and  upgrading  of  the  workforce  may  also 
reinforce the trends. The pace of change may also be influenced by institutional factors in the 
labour  market.  The  relative  importance  of  these  factors  is  the  subject  of  research  and  debate. 
Each factor is considered in turn below. 

Technological change 

Technological  change  influences  the  demand  for  skills  and  workers  with  different  levels  of 
education.  The  so-called  Skill-Biased  Technological  Change  (SBTC)  thesis  is  a  common 
approach to explaining the shift in labour demand towards high-skilled workers in Europe. The 
basic idea is that new technologies that improve the effectiveness of the production process, for 
example  information  and  communication  technology  (ICT),  are  ‘skill-biased’15
  and  that 
technological  change  increases  the  demand  for  higher-educated  workers.  At  the  same  time, 
less-educated workers become relatively less productive, and are less in demand, which reduces 
their wages or increases their likelihood of unemployment. 

There  is  considerable  evidence16
  that  adopting  ICT  reduces  the  labour  input  for  routine 
cognitive  and  manual  tasks  and  increases  the  input  for  non-routine  tasks  that  require  higher 
skills.  Studies  (mostly  for  the  US  and  the  UK)  have  tried  to  relate  shifts  in  skill  structure  in 
several industries to indicators such as computer use, R&D intensity or innovation counts. The 
findings  tend  to  support  the  SBTC  thesis  by  showing  that  demand  shifts  are  stronger  in 
industries making intensive use of ICT. Apart from ICT, biotechnology and nanotechnology are 
identified as likely to have a major impact on the economy and the labour market over the next 
decade17.  

Organisational change 

Technological change also influences the organisation of work, which affects the demand for 
different  levels  of  skills.  ICT  has  contributed  to  the  shift  from  the  so-called  ‘Taylorist 
organisation  of  labour’,  characterised  by  mass  production  and  bureaucratic  controls,  to  more 
flexible  forms  of  work18
.  Work  organisation  is  now  characterised  by  decentralised  decision-
taking,  just-in-time  operation,  job  rotation,  teamwork  and  multitasking.  The  OECD  has 
paraphrased 
these  new 
requirements  lead  to  higher  skill  needs19
.  This  process  is  termed  Skills  Biased  Organisational 
Change (SBOC). 

this  as  ‘high-performance  work  practices’,  emphasising 

that 

15 
16 
17 
18 
19 

Machin and van Reenen, 2007. 
Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003. 
IPTS (2008). 
Caroli and van Reenen, 2001. 
OECD Employment Outlook 1999. 

EN 

19 

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US  data  on  the  internal  structure  of  firms  that  have  adopted  ICT  show  that  the  increase  in 
demand  for  high-skilled  workers  can  be  attributed  more  to  the  requirements  of  new  work 
organisation than to the introduction of the new technology itself20
. The organisational changes 
possible through ICT may change labour demand in several ways. Firms that adopt ICT need 
workers that can get along in self-managed teams and can complete a whole process that earlier 
was  fragmented  because  of  the  lack  of  centralised  databases.  Moreover,  non-cognitive  skills 
such  as  dealing  with  suppliers  and  customers  or  influencing  team-mates  and  colleagues  have 
become more important. 

.  Data  for  France  and  Britain22

The  finding  that  skill  changes  are  strongly  driven  by  new  ways  of  organising  work  is 
corroborated  by  European  data21
  show  that  organisational 
changes  such  as  de-layering,  job  rotation  and  shorter  command  chains  prompt  an  increase  in 
relative labour demand in favour of the skilled. Higher-skilled workers more easily cope with 
these challenges as they are able to communicate or can be trained for multitasking at a lower 
cost  than  unskilled  or  low-skilled  workers.  The  studies  indicate  that  organisational  changes 
have come at the expense of the employment of clerks and have mainly favoured executives.  

Endogenous skill-biased technological change 

Technological  development  has  not  always  led  to  an  increase  in  the  demand  for  high-skilled 
labour.  To  some  extent,  labour  demand  is  a  reflection  of  labour  supply.  Work  needs  to  be 
organised in manner that best takes advantage of and complements the skills and education of 
the available workforce. A well-educated and highly skilled workforce will have the effect of 
encouraging and enabling the adoption of technologies and modification of work organisation 
that  can  increase  productivity,  which  will  in  turn  reinforce  the  demand  for  high  skills  in 
successful companies and industries. Upgrading the education of the workforce may thus itself 
be a factor leading to increased demand for high skills. A large supply of skilled workers with 
relatively low wages could lead firms to introduce a technology their workforce can cope with. 
So,  technology  needs  to  be  seen  as  a  flexible  parameter  that  firms  can  use  to  maximise  their 
profits23. 

Research  into  technological  change  driven  by  skills  supply  is  not  widely  available.  A  recent 
study in the United States compared PC adoption in different cities, finding that cities initially 
endowed  with  abundant  and  cheap  skilled  labour  more  aggressively  adopted  the  new 
technology24. Also, US evidence suggests that it is reasonable to assume that innovations are at 
least partly the result of the available workforce25. 

Across  the  developed  world,  empirical  evidence  shows  a  correlation  between  the  available 
skills  and  the  type  of  technological  change.  A  large  supply  of  general  and  transferable  skills 
provides companies with a better capacity for radical innovation, while education and training 
systems  offering  sector-specific  courses  and  curricula  favour  incremental  innovation26.  It  is 

20 
21 
22 
23 
24 
25 
26 

Breshanan et al., 2002. 
Hujer, 2003; Greenan, 2003. 
Caroli and van Reenen, 2001. 
Acemoglu, 2002. 
Beaudry et al., 2006. 
Acemoglu, Daron, 2002. 
Hall and Soskice, 2001. 

EN 

20 

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argued  that  the  US  systems  focusing  on  a  more  ‘general’  education  do  better  in  meeting  the 
requirements  of  technological  and  organisational  change.  Europe,  which  has  traditionally 
concentrated on ‘vocational’ systems, has seen less economic growth from rapid technological 
and organisational change27. 

Globalisation and international trade 

The  evolution  of  international  trade  and  globalisation  are  other  factors  leading  to  increased 
demand  for  high-skilled  workers  in  Europe  and  reduced  demand  for  unskilled  labour  in 
developed countries. In recent years, trade between the industrialised countries and developing 
countries has risen. Emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) now play a 
major role in the world economy. Within the next 40-50 years, the GDPs of the BRIC countries 
are expected to exceed those of the largest EU countries, the United States and Japan (OECD 
2007). 

Developing  and  emerging  countries  have  a  larger  unskilled  labour  supply  than  developed 
countries.  Trade  liberalisation  enables  this  supply  to  be  utilised.  The  developed  world  is 
experiencing  a  relative  decline  in  the  demand  for  unskilled  labour  as  it  imports  cheaper  low-
skill-intensive  goods  from  the  developing  countries28  and  concentrates  on  the  production  of 
high-skill-intensive goods. 

However, trade and globalisation only partially explain the relative demand shift towards high-
skilled  labour  in  Europe  for  several  reasons.  Firstly,  trade  flows  with  low-wage  developing 
countries  are  not  large  enough  to  explain  the  shift  in  labour  demand  within  the  developed 
countries29.  Secondly,  the  industries  that  have  experienced  the  biggest  increase  in  trade  with 
developing  and  emerging  countries  are  not  those  that  have  seen  the  largest  shifts  in  labour 
market  demand  towards  high-skilled  workers30.  Skill  upgrading  is  also  found  in  non-trading 
sectors31 like the retail trade, suggesting that globalisation and trade cannot by any means fully 
explain these trends. Finally, work specialisation among developed and developing countries is 
evolving  very  quickly.  Skill  upgrading  is  also  taking  place  in  developing  and  emerging 
countries32,  and  these  countries  are  now  competent  and  competitive  in  knowledge-intensive 
sectors. The import of low-skill intensive goods has remained rather stable whereas the import 
of  medium/high–skill  intensive  goods  from  low/medium  income  countries  has  substantially 
increased  over  the  last  10  years33.  In  addition,  international  trade  in  services  should  be  also 
taken  into  account:  according  to  statistics34  on  off-shoring,  most  of  the  jobs  effectively 
transferred abroad from EU Member States are in manufacturing or production - 51.5% -, but a 
significant proportion is in other areas of activity such as services. The increasing international 
trade  in  services  is  likely  to  develop  over  the  next  10  years  and  to  influence  the  EU  labour 
market and skills requirements 

27 
28 
29 
30 
31 
32 
33 
34 

Krueger and Kumar, 2004. 
Cahuc and Zylberberg, 2004. 
Machin, 2004. 
Machin and van Reenen, 2004. 
Desjonqueres et al., 1999. 
Berman and Machin, 2000. 
Landesmann et al. (2007) 
European Restructuring Monitor Database (ERM); see in particular the ERM report 2007 "Restructuring 
and employment in the EU: the impact of globalisation". 

EN 

21 

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Labour market institutions 

Labour  market  institutions  are  often  cited  as  an  explanatory  factor  for  the  relative  shifts  in 
labour  demand.  Indeed,  there  is  an  interesting  association  between  labour  market  institutions 
and  new  forms  of  work  organisation:  countries  with  relatively  restrictive  labour  market 
institutions  and  collective  regulation  (for  example  Germany  but  also  the  Scandinavian 
countries)  are  predominantly  characterised  by  work  forms  that  require  high  skills  such  as 
problem  solving  and,  especially,  worker  autonomy35.  In  countries  with  more  flexible  labour 
markets (for example the UK and Ireland), however, work organisation takes greater advantage 
of the relative cheapness of less skilled labour. Other things being equal, the reduced wages for 
the  low-skilled  should  raise  the  demand  for  them36.  This  explanation  is  mostly  cited  with 
respect to the US and UK labour markets, as they have seen a reduction in the role of labour 
market  institutions.  In  particular,  minimum  wages  fell  in  the  US  during  the  1980s  and 
unionisation  declined  sharply  in  both  countries.  However,  there  is  still  debate  among 
researchers as to how the evolution of labour market institutions has accounted for the shifts in 
labour and skills demand and wages37. 

Climate change and environmental challenges 

Lastly, efforts to mitigate and tackle climate change and environmental degradation (pollution 
of water, land and air) can create a new ‘green economy’, with millions of new jobs across the 
world38. The market for environmental products and services is projected to double. The shift to 
a low-carbon economy could benefit Europe, which already has a leading position in some of 
the technology required for renewable energy, for example39. Environmental concerns not only 
prompt the growth of new green sectors, however. They also require the development of new 
competences  in  more  traditional  sectors  (agriculture,  transport,  buildings).  Consequently, 
increasing  environmental  concerns  can  have  an  impact  on  all  sectors  of  the  economy  and 
require  not  only  the  development  of  education  and  training  programmes  for  emerging  new 
professions,  but  also  new  skills  to  be  taught  as  part  of  changing  job  profiles  within  existing 
professions40. 

Summary: factors affecting shifts in demand for skills and challenges for anticipating future 
requirements 

The increased demand for high skills and educated workers is a consequence of the following 
factors:  the  application  of  technology,  especially  ICT;  changes  in  work  organisation  that  are 
themselves  in  part  made  possible  by  technological  change;  globalisation  and  increased 
international trade; and the upgrading of the workforce in Europe, which itself influences how 
technology is used and work organised. The parallel increase in wage differentials between the 
highly  skilled  and  low-skilled  may  have  been  affected  by  labour  market  institutions.  Lastly, 

35 
36 
37 
38 
39 

40 

Lorenz and Valeyre, 2004. 
Machin, 2004. 
EENEE, 2008. 
UNEP, 2008. 
Eurofound,  2008c,  ‘Trends  and  drivers  of  change  in  the  EU  transport  and  logistics  sector:  Scenarios’, 
European  Foundation  for  the  Improvement  of  Living  and  Working  Conditions,  European  Monitoring 
Centre on Change. 
Nicaise, 2008. 

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22 

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climate change and environmental concerns are a new factor that may have a significant impact 
on our economies and labour markets.  

Because the factors affecting skills demand are closely interrelated, and because the evidence 
available  to  measure  their  influences  on  each  other  and  labour  market  demand  as  a  whole  is 
poor,  it  is  difficult  to  assign  weights  to  their  relative  importance.  Improvements  in  data 
allowing  for  a  better  longitudinal  and  cross-sectional  analysis  of  trends  would  yield  insights 
that could in turn improve the reliability of forecasts and anticipatory measures. 

Furthermore,  there  is  a  need  to  carefully  assess  the  extent  to  which  the  relative  influence  of 
these factors in the past is a good guide to their future influence on the demand for skills. For 
example,  the  next  generation  of  technological  change  could  have  different  impacts  compared 
with  the  advent  of  computerisation;  the  effects  of  globalisation  and  international  trade  could 
change as the BRIC countries themselves become developed; the continuing upgrading of the 
educational levels of the workforce could be associated with pressures for further but different 
changes  in  work  organisation;  and  labour  market  institutions  could  have  different  influences, 
with  for  example  more  emphasis  on  creating  good  working  conditions  and  opportunities  for 
work–life balance, encouraging lifelong learning and prolonging working life than on monetary 
rewards. 

Finally,  aggregate  labour  demand  could  be  affected  by  different  developments,  so  there  is  a 
need  to  consider  alternative  scenarios  in  order  to  distinguish  between  the  changes  that  are 
robust  and  those  that  may  be  affected  by  wider  socio-economic  developments.  Furthermore, 
quantitative projections should be complemented by a more qualitative analysis of skills needs 
by sector, under different scenarios.  

A need for higher education attainment levels 

As  a  result  of  technological  change,  globalisation  and  new  forms  of  work  organisation, 
education requirements  are  increasing  in all occupational categories — including those at the 
lowest  rung  of  the  occupation  ladder.  Following  this  trend,  the  quantitative  projections 
published by Cedefop point to an increase of almost 18.7 million jobs at the highest education 
level (ISCED levels 5 and 6) and almost 13.3 million jobs at medium level (ISCED levels 3 and 
4)  (see  box  2.2  above  for  details  on  methodology  and  data  used).  This  would  be  offset  by  a 
sharp  decline  of  almost  12.5  million  jobs  for  those  with  no  or  low  formal  diploma(ISCED 
levels  0  to  2)41.  As  a  consequence,  higher  education  level  will  be  required  overall  from  the 
working population (see Figure 2.7). 

41 

CEDEFOP (2008), EU-25 data. 

EN 

23 

   EN 

 
                                                 
Figure 2.7: Past and anticipated employment shares by education attainment level 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High

Medium

Low

1996

2001

2006

2015

2020

Source: CEDEFOP (2008), EU25 

there 

While 
is  no  simple  one-to-one  relationship  between  occupations  and  formal 
qualifications,  it  is  possible  to  explore  how  this  is  changing  over  time  (see  figure  2.8).  The 
general increase in qualification levels across most jobs — including those at the lowest rung of 
the occupation ladder — can be the result of two phenomena. Firstly, underutilisation of skills 
may partly explain the shift to higher skills in jobs at the lower rungs. Secondly, the nature and 
skill  requirements  of  jobs  at  these  lower  rungs  are  changing.  They  are  more  and  more 
demanding42 and require competences to deal with non-routine tasks.  

42 

Green, 2006. 

EN 

24 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
Figure 2.8: Education requirements across occupations 

Low level of educational attainment

Medium level of educational attainment

High level of educational attainment

s
b
o

j

n
o

i
l
l
i

M

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2006

2020

2006

2020

2006

2020

2006

2020

High-skilled non-
manual occupations

Skilled non-manual
occupations

Skilled manual
occupations

Elementary
occupations

Source: Cedefop (2008) 

Above  the  formal  education  attainment,  it  is  possible  to  explore  the  evolution  of  skills, 
competences, knowledge and qualification (see box 2.1 for a clear definition of these differing 
but related concepts).  

The crucial skills needed in sectors: qualitative analyses 

As  stated  above,  technological  change  and  in  particular  ICT  explain  the  shift  towards  higher 
skills43. Typical analytical and interactive tasks associated with ICT are hypothesis testing and 
formal  and  legal  writing,  but  also  tasks  requiring  ‘soft  skills’  like  persuading,  selling  or 
managing  others.  Demand  for  problem-solving  and  communication  skills  has  increased,  and 
these capacities are mainly found in the high-skilled workforce. Across Europe, the proportion 
of workers undertaking non-routine tasks is already very high (see Figure 2.9 below). 

43 

Autor et al., 2003. 

EN 

25 

   EN 

 
 
 
                                                 
Figure 2.9: Proportion of workers undertaking non-routine tasks 

Proportion of workers (%)...

80,8

69,1

66,9

59,4

42,9

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Solving unforeseen
problems

Learning new things at
work

Able to choose or change
methods of work

Undertaking complex tasks Doing monotonous tasks at

work

Source: European Survey on Working Conditions, 2005, EU-27 
Note: workers can have several characteristics (figures not cumulative) 

Further exploration of skills shifts in specific sectors and occupations using qualitative methods 
can  provide  a  deeper  understanding  of  the  crucial  skills  required  for  labour  market  success. 
Several  sectoral  studies  have  been  undertaken  at  European  level.  Studies  by  the  CEDEFOP 
Skillsnet are already available for two specific sectors in Europe: tourism and nanotechnology. 
The  project  ‘Work  Organisation  and  Restructuring  in  the  Knowledge  Society’  (WORKS), 
funded  by  the  Socio-economic  Sciences  and  Humanities  programme  under  the  Sixth 
Framework Programme of the European Union, has also studied how restructuring is changing 
occupations  in  the  public  sector  and  in  the  clothing,  food,  and  IT  sectors44.  The  European 
Foundation  for  the  Improvement  of  Living  and  Working  Conditions  and  its  European  Centre 
for  Monitoring  of  Change  (EMCC)  have  also  studied  trends  in  demand  in  specific  sectors: 
biomedical  healthcare,  commerce,  energy,  textiles  and  clothing,  transport  and  logistics,  and 
childcare  services.  The  European  Community  Programme  for  Employment  and  Social 
Solidarity  (PROGRESS)  also  supports  a  comprehensive  analysis  of  the  evolution  of  jobs  and 
skills in 16 sectors (including the automotive industry, textiles and clothing, and chemicals45).  

A general trend towards demand for a broader portfolio of skills is perceptible across sectors. 
For example, the WORKS project confirms that designers or ICT researchers have to develop 
skills  in  marketing  or  management,  software  professionals  have  to  develop  skills  in  public 
relations,  and  logistics  managers  are  developing  a  new  professional  work  profile.  This 
extension  of  skills  beyond  traditional  occupational  boundaries  is  very  often  left  to  the 
individual responsibility of the worker, through self-training or on-the-job training.  

In  knowledge-intensive  and  growing  sectors  such  as  nanotechnology  and  biomedical 
healthcare, there will be even greater demand for scientists skilled in more than just one area of 
research. The shortage of European scientists may hamper growth in these sectors and result in 

44 
45 

All the outputs and conclusions of the project are available at: www.worksproject.be 
See a detailed presentation of the methodology in section 2.2. 

EN 

26 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
the relocation of knowledge-intensive activities46. The studies in this area47 point to the urgent 
need  to  further  develop  scientific  education  and  training  with  a  particular  stress  on 
interdisciplinarity. As the number of companies that develop and manufacture nanotechnology 
and biotechnology products in cooperation with research institutes is growing, the demand for 
personnel qualified in both R&D and business is increasing. Managerial skills are also needed 
in addition to scientific knowledge. 

In more traditional sectors such as the automotive sector, the commerce sector or the tourism 
sector, existing jobs will tend to change in terms of the skills and competences required. In the 
automotive  sector48,  for  example,  emerging  technologies  and  changing  demand  (greater 
diversity, urbanisation, pressure from energy prices, etc.) will increase the demand for skills in 
design, marketing, and research. The tourism49 study has found that in order to face increasing 
competition  in  world  tourism  and  keep  its  position  as  a  favoured  destination,  it  is  crucial  for 
Europe to respond to general trends, such as customised holidays or language and educational 
holidays. These require customer handling/service, a knowledge of foreign languages, skills to 
identify opportunities for cross-promotion and cross-selling, and communication and marketing 
skills. In sectors said to be declining, such as textiles, there will still be a great need for ‘hard’ 
scientists in order to develop and use new technologies that are more environmentally friendly 
and  that  will  enable  the  industry  to  offer  products  tailored  to  the  individual  wishes  of 
customers50.  

Across sectors, transversal and generic skills such as problem-solving and analytical skills, self-
management  and  communication  skills,  linguistic  skills,  digital  competences  are  more  and 
more valued on the labour market51. Furthermore, the key competence of learning-to-learn, the 
skill for recognizing one's learning needs and finding opportunities for learning, is essential for 
everyone,  in  a  changing  economy  where  some  jobs  will  disappear  while  others  will  appear. . 
From  the  REFLEX  survey,  there  is  evidence  that  graduates  are  expected  to  be  more  or  less 
competent  in  at  least  the  following  five  areas:  professional  expertise,  functional  flexibility, 
innovation  and  knowledge  management,  mobilisation  of  human  resources,  and  international 
orientation.  International  mobility  during  studies  is  an  added  value  for  graduates  and  has  a 
significant  impact  on  labour  market  success52.  There  is  still  a  need  to  acquire  professional 
expertise, but training in a specific field of knowledge also provides a basis for building other, 
more general skills, such as communication or problem solving. It is a context in which more 
generic  skills  can  be  developed53
.  Surveys  for  the  Tuning  Educational  Structures  in  Europe 
project  also  offer  insight  into  perceptions  of  the  competences  needed  by  tertiary  education 

46 

47 
48 

49 
50 

51 
52 

53 

Eurofound,  European  Monitoring  Centre  on  Change  (2008),  ‘The  future  of  the  European  biomedical 
healthcare sector: Four scenarios’. 
See in particular CEDEFOP studies on the nanotechnology sector. 
‘Comprehensive Analysis of the Evolution of the European Automotive industry’, Alphametrics, report 
produced  for  the  European  Commission,  Lot  1  of  Comprehensive  Analysis  of  Emerging  Competences 
and Economic Activities in the European Union. 
CEDEFOP (2005), ‘Trends and skills needs in Tourism’. 
‘Skills  scenarios  for  the  textiles,  wearing  and  leather  products  sector  in  the  European  Union’,  report 
produced  for  the  European  Commission,  Lot  2  of  Comprehensive  Analysis  of  Emerging  Competences 
and Economic Activities in the European Union. 
Dickerson and Green, 2004; Kriechel and Pfann, 2005. 
‘Learning  Mobility,  an  Opportunity  for  all’;  report  of  the  High-level  Expert  Forum  on  Mobility; 
Evaluations of Erasmus studies. 
Cf. conclusions of the REFLEX project, Allen and van der Velden (2007). 

EN 

27 

   EN 

 
                                                 
graduates, including to what extent and in which areas the perceptions of students, graduates, 
academics  and  employers  coincide  or  diverge.  They  all  agree  that  the  ability  to  apply 
knowledge  in  practical  situations  is  very  important,  as  are  the  abilities  to  identify,  pose  and 
resolve  problems  and  to  communicate  both  orally  and  in  the  written  word.  In  contrast, 
employers rate the ability to work in a team as very important, whereas academics and students 
do not pay too much attention to teamwork ability.  

2.2.2.  Rising inequalities as a consequence of shifts in skills demand?  

Occupation trends: a polarisation of jobs?  

Sectoral  changes  will  have  significant  implications  for  the  occupational  skills  needed  in  the 
future.  These  will  be  reinforced  by  changes  in  how  work  is  organised  and  how  jobs  are 
performed within sectors. Currently, almost 40% of people are employed in higher-level jobs 
such  as  management,  professional  work,  or  technical  jobs.  An  increase  is  projected  in  these 
higher-level jobs, but also for some jobs in ‘elementary’ occupations. In contrast, there would 
be  fewer  jobs  for  skilled  agricultural  workers,  clerks  and  craft  workers.  Changing  sector  and 
occupational  structures  may  lead  to  some  job  polarisation  (i.e.  job  growth  at  the  higher  and 
lower levels with demand for jobs in the medium-level occupations falling somewhat).  

New  technologies  often  cannot  replace  ‘non-routine’  work  typically  done  by  low-skilled 
workers.  ‘Non-routine’  tasks  also  cover  things  like  truck  driving  or  bibliography  searches, 
services  typically  delivered  by  the  low-skilled.  ‘Routine  tasks’  involving  repetitive  and 
predictable  work,  however,  have  usually  been  replaced  by  automation  and  computerisation. 
These tasks include calculation work or repetitive costumer services that have in the past been 
undertaken by middle-skilled workers. New technologies (especially ICT) not only increase the 
productivity of high-skilled workers but also eliminate work traditionally done by intermediate-
level occupations. Therefore, technological change (especially ICT) and organisational change 
can partly explain the job polarisation phenomenon. 

European evidence tends to confirm the increasing demand for non-routine tasks at the lower 
and higher rungs of the jobs ladder. In the UK for example54, there has been a growth in high- 
and  low-wage  jobs  where  it  has  been  difficult  to  replace  human  capital  by  machines  or 
computers over the last few decades. Non-routine manual tasks done by hairdressers or kitchen 
porters are as much in demand as non-routine cognitive and interactive tasks performed by care 
assistants or software engineers. Routine-task jobs, normally found in the middle of the wage 
distribution, have however decreased. Data from Germany also show that since the end of the 
1970s  occupations  requiring  routine  manual  or  clerical  skills  have  declined  considerably 
whereas  jobs  needing  interactive  and  non-routine  skills  have  experienced  the  highest  growth 
rates55
.  The  French  report  on  occupations  in  2015  by  the  "Centre  d’analyse  stratégique" 
emphasises that job polarisation is strongly associated with the expansion of the service sectors. 
This  means  that  job  increases,  for  both  the  low-  and  high-skilled,  are  mainly  to  be  found  in 
these  sectors.  The  routine-task  jobs  of  the  middle-skilled  that  have  been  eliminated  by  the 
adoption of new technologies have predominantly been in the manufacturing sector. A number 
of national studies thus corroborate the job polarisation hypothesis.  

54 
55 

Goos and Manning, 2007. 
Dustman et al., 2007; Spitz-Oener, 2006. 

EN 

28 

   EN 

 
                                                 
While polarisation exists in some countries it is not a uniform phenomenon across Europe, as 
employment change has also involved upgrading and growth in the middle occupations in some 
countries.  The  recent  report  of  the  European  Foundation  for  Living  and  Working  Conditions 
entitled ‘More and better jobs: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe’56 highlights five 
categories  of  change:  polarisation  (evident  in  CY,  FR,  HU,  NL,  SK);  hybrid  polarisation  / 
upgrading (AT, BE, DE, SI, UK,); upgrading (DK, FI, IE, LU, PT); hybrid upgrading /growth 
in the middle (CZ, ES, IT, SE); and growth in the middle (EE, EL, LT, LV). Few countries are 
thus experiencing a clear job polarisation.  

Furthermore,  in  intermediate  occupational  categories  where  job  losses  are  projected,  these 
losses are more than offset by the estimated need to replace workers leaving the labour market. 
Figure 2.10 illustrates that, despite a net loss of skilled manual jobs, close to 20 million jobs 
will still need to be filled in this category. Many of those intermediate occupations will remain 
crucial components of the economy and viable sources of jobs, but the nature of these jobs and 
their skill requirements will change. 

Figure 2.10 Decreasing demand for skilled manual occupations 

Net job creation

Other job openings due to replacement demand

s
b
o

j

n
o

i
l
l
i

M

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

d
e

l
l
i

k
s

h
g
H

i

l

a
u
n
a
m
n
o
n

s
n
o
i
t
a
p
u
c
c
o

-
n
o
n

d
e

l
l
i

k
S

l

a
u
n
a
m

s
n
o
i
t
a
p
u
c
c
o

d
e

l
l
i

k
S

l

a
u
n
a
m

s
n
o
i
t
a
p
u
c
c
o

y
r
a
t
n
e
m
e
E

l

s
n
o
i
t
a
p
u
c
c
o

Source: CEDEFOP (2008). Data cover EU 25. 

Wage inequality as a consequence of skills demand shifts?  

56 

Eurofound, 2008d. 

EN 

29 

   EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
There has been an increase in wage inequality in Europe during the last few decades. Certainly, 
measurements of wage inequality should always be considered in the light of the transfer and 
tax  systems  of  the  respective  economies.  But  the  patterns  of  wage  inequality  also  reflect  job 
polarisation  and  shifts  in  skills  demand.  Bottlenecks  in  segments  of  the  labour  market  may 
exert upward pressure on wages for workers where demand exceeds supply.  

Various studies provide evidence of an increase in the wage premium for high-skilled workers 
during  the  last  four  decades,  though  not  for  all  countries  nor  across  the  whole  time  period57. 
The rising ratio of high-skilled people coincides with an even higher demand for their skills on 
the  labour  markets,  so  earnings  differentials  between  low-  and  high-educated  workers  have 
been  increasing.  The  labour  income  share  of  unskilled workers has decreased both in Europe 
and  in  the  USA,  while  the  share  of  high-skilled  workers  has  increased  (see  Figure  2.11).  In 
Europe, the results for the medium-skilled are more mixed. In the USA, the income share of the 
medium-skilled  has  clearly  decreased.  In  this  case,  the  potential  impact  of  job  polarisation  is 
illustrated  by  the  convergence  of  the  wages  of  the  middle-skilled  and  the  low-skilled 
workforce.  Middle-skilled  workers  have  thus  lost  ground  in  relation  to  the  high-skilled  and 
their convergence towards the low-skilled is reflected in the wage distribution58. 

It  is  crucial  for  the  assessment  of  future  skill  needs  whether  or  not  relative  demand  shifts 
towards the high-skilled really are persistent and can explain increasing wage inequality and/or 
unemployment.  Technological  change  explains  a  substantial  part  of  these  trends59.  Recent 
studies, however, mostly agree that there are also other factors inducing wage inequality. They 
argue  that  the  observed  wage  patterns  are  not  necessarily  the  result  of  a  relative  shift  in  skill 
prices but can also be explained by the changing composition of the workforce60
. The argument 
is that there are considerable wage differentials within skill groups. Hourly wage dispersion is 
typically  higher  among  the  group  of  high-skilled  workers  than  in  the  low-skilled  group.  The 
wide variations in the earnings of workers with a higher education level may be due to many 
factors.  Intrinsic  ability  or  even  effort  could  matter  more  within  this  group  than  among  the 
lower-skilled.  Moreover,  within  given  skill  groups  work  experience  reduces  earnings 
dispersion, meaning that an older workforce could also lower wage inequality.  

Lastly, lower wages at the bottom of the job ladder in the service sector raise the issue of the 
recognition  of  competences  and  skills  necessary  for  these  jobs.  As  stated  above,  these  jobs 
require dealing with non-routine tasks and are more and more demanding61, which would need 
to  be  rewarded.  The  recognition  (including  financial  recognition)  of  the  skills  required  in  the 
service  sectors  is  closely  related  to  the  issue  of  gender  equality  on  the  labour  market,  as  the 
majority of jobs in the service sector are held by women62.  

57 
58 
59 
60 
61 
62 

EENEE, 2008. 
EENEE, 2008. 
European Commission, 2007. 
See Autor et al 2005, Dustman et al. 2007; Lemieux 2006. 
Green, 2006. 
Conseil d’analyse stratégique, 2007. 

EN 

30 

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Figure 2.11: Income share by level of skill  

Chart 31: Share in total labour compensation in Europe 
(10 Member States)

Chart 32: Share in total labour compensation in the United 
States

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

low-skilled

medium-skilled

high-skilled

low-skilled

medium-skilled

high-skilled

Source: EU KLEMS63 database and European Commission, 2007.  

Note: the 10 countries for which the data are available are BE, DK, DE, ES, FR, IT, NL, AT, FI 
and UK.  

To  sum  up,  while  job  polarisation  is  perceptible  in  some  Member  States,  the  current  trends 
point  towards  increasing  labour  market  requirements,  including  higher  formal  qualifications, 
but  also  a  need  for  job-relevant  skills  (non-routine  skills,  analytical  skills,  communication 
skills,  etc.).  To  assess  the  risk  of  skills  mismatches,  these  trends  in  skills  demand  have  to  be 
compared with the current trends in skills supply.  

2.2.3. 

Skills matches and mismatches 

Educational upgrading 

In  addition  to  the  quantitative  evolution  of  the  labour  supply,  qualitative  trends  are  also 
perceptible. Currently, the EU employed population aged 15 to 74 years with tertiary education 
level is 56.7 million, while there are 107.4 million people in employment with ISCED level 3 
and 4, and another 53.5 million with ISCED levels 0 to 264
. Overall educational attainment rates 
have increased in recent years, as compulsory schooling has expanded in many countries and 
older age cohorts (with lower education levels) are retiring from the labour market. Increasing 
graduation rates from tertiary education across European countries indicate that this process is 
ongoing and widespread. In almost all countries, the proportion of the population with tertiary 
education level is much higher among the younger than the older cohorts (see Figure 2.12). As 
a consequence, the proportion of the working-age population with low educational attainment is 

63 

64 

The EU KLEMS project "Productivity in the European Union: A Comparative Industry Approach" was 
funded by the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities programme under Sixth Framework Programme 
of the European Union. All the outputs and conclusions of the project are available at: www.euklems.net 
Source: Eurostat, LFS. 

EN 

31 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
decreasing  (see  Figure  2.13).  This  educational  upgrading  of  the  European  population  implies 
that there will in future be a higher supply of workers with higher education levels. 

Figure 2.12 Percentage of persons with tertiary qualifications by age (2007) 

e
g
a
t
n
e
c
r
e
P

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

Age

Source:  Eurostat  (LFS),  from  European  Commission  (2008a),  Progress  Towards  the  Lisbon 
Objectives in Education and Training. Indicators and benchmark — 2008 

Figure 2.13 Percentage of persons having attained a tertiary education level, 15-64 year-olds 

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2000
2007

RO  MT CZ SK IT PT AT HU PL BG SI

LV EL DE LU LT FR NL ES SE DK EE BE IE UK FI CY

Source:  Eurostat  (LFS),  from  European  Commission  (2008a),  Progress  Towards  the  Lisbon 
Objectives in Education and Training. Indicators and benchmark — 2008. 

EN 

32 

   EN 

 
 
 
Trends  in  skills  acquired  over  and  above  formal  educational  attainment  can  be  measured  by 
surveys. For competences in reading, mathematics and science, data are provided by the OECD 
PISA  survey.  According  to  this  survey;  the  number  of  low  achievers  in  reading  in  the  EU 
increased  from  21.3%  in  2000  to  24.1%  in  200665
.  However,  a  majority  of  countries  (13) 
reduced  their  share  of  low-performing  students  in  mathematics  between  2003  and  2006. 
Furthermore,  the  teaching  of  foreign  languages  in  lower  and  upper  secondary  education  is 
strongly increasing. Therefore, trends are not obvious, with improvements in acquiring skills, 
but also deterioration in such a basic skill as reading. 

Changes by fields of study are also observed. For example, the number of graduates in maths, 
science  and  technology  has  increased  (686  000  in  2000  and  872  000  in  2006).  But  gender 
segregation by field of study and occupational training is changing very slowly. At EU level, 
the female share of math, sciences, and technology graduates increased slightly from 30.8% in 
2000 to 31.2% in 200566
. This may result in shortages in scientific and technical skills required 
by the labour market.  

The  digital  competence,  the  skill  for  confident  and  critical  use  of  ICT,  is  now  taught,  but 
progresses are insufficient. ICT is both a topic and a new means for learning new skills for new 
jobs, providing multiple routes and tools for learning within organized education and through 
informal peer support with internet-based networking approaches67. The opportunities  of new 
technologies  have  been  recognized  within  educational  institutions,  but  the  extent  of  how 
business,  services  and  jobs  have  transformed  through  ICT  is  not  yet  reflected  in  educational 
systems. Recent Commission Staff Working Paper encourages member states to deploy ICT for 
pedagogical,  technical  and  organizational  innovation  in  developing  lifelong  learning68.Lastly, 
participation in lifelong learning has increased slowly, but relatively few countries are moving 
towards making lifelong learning a reality (Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, along 
with Norway and Iceland)69. In these countries, the transition from education to work and back 
again may occur more often in an individual’s life cycle.  

The upgrading trend observed among the younger cohorts may only partly respond to the skills 
needs in the labour  markets. 70% of the labour force in 2020 have already left  the education 
system  and  are  already  working.  Therefore,  to  avoid  qualitative  imbalances  in  the  labour 
market, lifelong learning is required. ICT have an important role to play in developing learning 
opportunities for older people in an ageing society. In this respect; a recent report from IPTS 
points to both obstacles (e.g. not user-friendly ICT) and opportunities: new social networks and 
communities  emerging  with  technologies  provide  opportunities  for  learning  and  upgrading 
these skills with the support of peers, even for groups under risk of exclusion, such as senior 
workers70. 

65 

66 
67 
68 
69 
70 

See Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmark 2008, and 
OECD (2007), PISA 2006: Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World. 
Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmarks 2008. 
IPTS EUR report 22218 
SEC(2008) 2629 final 
Progress toward the Lisbon objectives in education and training. Indicators and benchmarks 2008. 
IPTS report 23414 

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A risk of skills mismatches?  

On  top  of  quantitative  imbalances,  education  and  skills  mismatches  occur  when  there  is  a 
difference  between  the  skills  a  worker  provides  and  the  skills  necessary  for  the  job.  In 
particular, working in a job below an individual’s level of skills limits individual productivity 
and leads to ‘underutilisation of education’.  

Mismatches  are  usually  explained  by  information  asymmetry  between  employers  and 
employees,  incomplete  information  on  the  labour  market,  heterogeneity  among  agents,  and 
transaction costs71
. Job matching is particularly affected by problems of incomplete information 
and transaction costs. An individual looking for a job will not have full information about the 
job, and a firm wanting to fill a vacancy will not have full information about the individual, and 
both  parties  will  have  to  devote  resources  in  order  to  search  for  a  job  and  select  among 
candidates,  respectively.  These  imperfections  result  in  the  simultaneous  existence  of 
unemployment and vacant jobs in equilibrium, but also the existence of skills mismatches. 

Measuring ‘underutilisation of education’ is a rather difficult task and most of the approaches 
do  not  deliver  satisfactory  results.  For  empirical  research,  skill  mismatches  are  normally 
measured  using  either  ‘objective’  or  ‘subjective’  definitions72
.  Subjective  measures  rely  on 
what individuals report themselves  on  the utilisation of skills. Normally, workers are directly 
asked  whether  they  feel  under-  or  over-educated  or  what  the  minimum  educational 
requirements are for the job. Sometimes they have to answer whether ‘their current job offers 
sufficient  scope  to  use  their  knowledge  and  skills’.  The  2005  European  Survey  on  Working 
Conditions provides a broad picture, by asking a question about current skills and job matching: 
only 52.3% of workers declare that ‘their duties correspond well to their present skills’; 13% 
‘need further training to cope well with their duties’; 34.6% estimate that they ‘have the skills 
to  cope  with  more  demanding  duties’  (with  differences  between  countries,  see  Figure  2.14). 
From graduate surveys, there is evidence that at individual level supply does not always match 
demand. According to the REFLEX project for example, some 10% of graduates indicated that 
their own  competence level was  lower than that required of them in the job and around 15% 
reported that their competence level exceeded the requirements of their current position.  

More objective measures usually compare the years of schooling attained by a worker with the 
average level of schooling within the worker’s occupation. Others look at the educational level 
of  the  worker  and  compare  this  to  the  requirements  of  a  specific  job.  However,  apparent 
mismatches  between  occupations  and  formal  education  attainment  may  reflect  ability 
differences between workers with the same level of formal education73.  

71 
72 
73 

Borjas, 2008; Cahuc and Zylberberg, 2004. 
Groot and Maassen van den Brink, 2000. 
Sloane, 2003; EENEE, 2008. 

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Figure 2.14 Skills mismatches: a subjective measure 

FR 

RO 

IE

 UK 

CY

SV

HU 

EL 

LU 

SK

ES 

EU27 

SI 

 NL 

DK 

MT

EE 

 LV 

BG 

PL

BE 

 IT 

DE 

 PT 

AT 

LT 

 FI 

CZ 

Job-skills match: need more training 

Job-skills match: correspond well 

Job-skills match: could cope with more
demanding duties

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: European Survey on Working Conditions (2005). 

Empirical evidence usually considers the wage differentials and differences in job satisfaction 
that are due to mismatches. ‘Underutilisation of education’ has an overall effect on productivity 
levels as the allocation between jobs and workers is not efficient. On the other hand, individual 

EN 

35 

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outcomes such as wages and job satisfaction can be affected as over-educated workers are not 
paid  according  to  their  marginal  productivity,  and  do  not  feel  satisfied  in  jobs  that  do  not 
correspond well to their competences.  

Besides  theories  that  consider  skill  mismatches  as  a  persistent  phenomenon,  other  arguments 
indicate that it is more a transitional problem. Analysis suggests that there are different ways 
for workers to accumulate skills over the life cycle (e.g. formal education, vocational training, 
and  work-related  experience),  which  combine  with  different  ways  of  gaining  access  to 
employment.  Young  workers  may  be  assigned  to  jobs  that  do  not  coincide  with  their  formal 
education  because  they  lack  experience.  As  they  get  older  they  become  more  productive  and 
the temporary ‘underutilisation of education’ disappears74
. This so-called ‘waiting-room effect’ 
implies that differences in demanded and available skills diminish over the life cycle. That is 
why perceived skill mismatches are often observed for young graduates. People accept jobs that 
do not match their educational level but can make up for their initial lack of work experience75
. 
This  suggests  that  while  ‘underutilisation  of  education’  is  a  reality,  it  is  only  a  temporary 
phenomenon that can be overcome by upward mobility on the labour market or inside the firm. 
Such transitional discrepancies primarily relate to a lack of ICT skills among young graduates 
at  the  beginning  of  their  working  career.  However,  underutilisation  of  education  remains  a 
persistent  phenomenon  for  migrants  in  some  countries76
.  As  a  result,  labour  markets  tend  to 
make inefficient use of the potential of immigration to help fill skills gaps. 

Lastly, one could consider whether observed skill mismatches, if reliably identified, are rather 
the  result  of  ‘wrong  education’  than  of  ‘underutilisation  of  education’.  Evidence  shows  that 
working  in  another  field  increases  skill  mismatches  even  though  the  level  of  education  is 
perfectly matched77
. One important conclusion of the report on the REFLEX project by Van der 
Velden  and  Allen  is  the  significant  role  of  professional  expertise  as  a  determinant  of  labour 
market success. They also present consequences of these skill mismatches for wages and show 
different effects for different fields of study. However, they are far away from presenting any 
reliable  patterns  that  could  be  used  to  derive  implications  for  specific  fields  of  education  or 
study. Furthermore, employers differ in the importance they attach to fields of study. Empirical 
evidence highlights the existence of different ‘modes’ or ‘pathways’ for access to employment 
across sectors or occupations78. In some sectors and in some occupations, the field of study is 
less important for employment success.  

This  section  provides  a  first  estimation  of  existing  mismatches  between  labour  demand  and 
supply. These mismatches are likely to both continue and change in character as a consequence 
of  the  key  trends  described  above.  Labour  demand  and  skills  needs  are  changing  both 
quantitatively  and  qualitatively;  labour  and  skills  supply  are  changing  too.  This  situation 
increases the need for anticipatory mechanisms so that policies for education and training and 
active  labour  market  measures  can  be  well  informed,  but  also  increases  the  challenges  for 
making valid forecasts. 

74 
75 
76 
77 
78 

Alba-Ramirez, 1993. 
Allen and de Vries, 2004. 
Fernandez C. and Ortega C, 2008. 
Allen and deWeert, 2007. 
See Employment in Europe 2008, chapter 5. 

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3. 

ANTICIPATION  AND  MATCHING:  AN  EVALUATION  OF  EXISTING 
PRACTICES AT NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVEL 

This  section  examines  existing  practices  in  anticipating  future  skill  needs  and  matching 
policies. Firstly, it presents international experience and the experiences in European countries. 
The section then moves on to consider matching policies and successful measures adopted in 
response to identified problems and issues. 

3.1.  Mapping  and  evaluation  of  anticipatory  tools  at  international  level  and  in 

European countries 

This section examines the methods, approaches and tools used for anticipating skill needs. It is 
based  on  two  main  sources:  CEDEFOP’s  Systems  for  anticipation  of  skill  needs  in  the  EU 
Member  States,  2008,  and  the  questionnaires  completed  by  the  SYSDEM  correspondents. 
Where  appropriate,  responses  to  Eurydice  questionnaires  are  used  to  illustrate  country 
situations. 

The practices identified in this section cover both international experience and the experience 
across European countries. The section then concludes with an overview of emerging holistic 
practices and the issues arising from the review of anticipatory tools.  

3.1.1.  Measuring skill shortages 

Defining  and  measuring  skill  shortages  has  proved  a  difficult  issue  and  there  is  no  generally 
accepted  measure  (for  a  recent  review  see  the  latest  report  by  the  UK  Migration  Advisory 
Committee)79

. The most commonly used indicators are: 

- unfilled vacancies (and various related indicators), which are seen as reflecting problems in 
obtaining skills from the external labour market; and 

-  skills  gaps,  which  reflect  a  lack  of  skills  among  those  currently  employed  (reflecting  skill 
deficiencies in the internal market). 

Information  on  unfilled  vacancies  can  be  obtained  from  administrative  sources.  In  many 
countries,  public  employment  services  maintain  databases  of  this  kind.  However,  while 
comprehensive  for  some  kinds  of  jobs,  they  tend  not  to  be  representative  of  all  employment, 
especially not for higher-level vacancies, which are often advertised through private rather than 
public agencies. 

The lack of reliable vacancy statistics in most Member States means that alternative qualitative 
and  quantitative  methods,  typically  employer  surveys,  are  used  to  measure  skill  and  labour 
shortages. In a number of countries, surveys of employers have been used for a number of years 
to  measure  current  imbalances  in  skills  demand  and  supply.  The  National  Employer  Skills 
Surveys conducted for England over the past decade provide a good example of this approach 

79 

Migration  Advisory  Committee  (2008),  Skilled,  Shortage,  Sensible:  The  recommended  shortage 
occupation  lists  for  the  UK  and  Scotland.  Migration  Advisory  Committee.  ISBN:  978-1-84726-823-5 
(www.ukba.home office.gov.uk/mac). 

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(Box 3.1). Similar surveys have also been conducted in other parts of the UK and elsewhere in 
Europe.  

CEDEFOP’s analysis of the surveys conducted indicates that while the types of questions asked 
in these surveys are similar, the structure, sampling techniques and methods of data collection 
vary,  so  the  results  are  not  comparable.  Employer  surveys  are  discussed  in  more  detail  in 
section 3.2.3. 

Box 3.1: National Employer Skills Surveys (England)  

These surveys have been conducted since the late 1990s following the recommendation of 
the UK National Skills Task Force that better measures of current skills imbalances were 
needed on a regular basis. Their main objectives are to quantify the scale and patterns of 
both  internal  and  external  skill  deficiencies.  They  have  been  undertaken  biennially  since 
2001, using broadly similar methods. 

National-level  surveys  (over  70 000  employers)  provide  representative  data  by  sector, 
occupational and geographical areas, at a quite detailed level of aggregation. Data are based 
on  large-scale  telephone  surveys  of  employers  (HR  departments),  using  a  structured 
questionnaire. 

The  National  Learning  and  Skills  Council  is  the  responsible  organisation.  The  surveys 
provide regular updates on the scale and patterns of skill deficiencies. In many cases, the 
shortages  appear  to  be  ephemeral  (as  might  be  expected  if  markets  adjust  to  deal  with 
imbalances).  In  some  cases  there  are  persistent  problems  (often  in  parts  of  the  economy 
where market mechanisms are not working freely). 

This  tool  provides  useful  guidance  to  policy  makers  and  individual  labour  market  actors 
about problems.  

3.1.2.  Quantitative model-based projections 

International experience 

Forecasting the changing demand for skills has now been a regular feature in some countries 
for well over half a century, and for many decades in a number of others. The Bureau of Labor 
Statistics (BLS) in the USA was  one  of  the pioneers of labour market  projections.  Originally 
introduced to help guide the transition of servicemen back into civilian employment following 
wartime  service,  the  BLS  projections  are  now  undertaken  with  the  aim  of  producing  useful 
labour market information that can help to guide the decision-making of all those involved in 
the labour market (Box 3.2). 

Box 3.2 Projections by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics 

The BLS projections produce detailed projections of employment by sector and occupation in 
order  to  guide  decision-making  by  policy  makers  and  others.  The  first  projections  were 
published in the 1950s. They are now conducted biennially. 

The use of a detailed multisectoral macroeconomic model produces very detailed quantitative 
projections of employment by industry and occupation, for the whole of the USA and other 

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geographical sub-areas, over the medium and long term. 

These  projections  are  freely  distributed  and  used  by  others  to  develop  other  products  and 
services. The USA is a market-driven economy and the work of the BLS is designed to help 
the  labour  market  to  work  by  providing  participants  with  regular  information  about  trends 
and  possible  future  developments.  The  results  are  not  intended  for  mechanistic  planning 
purposes.  They  are  complemented  by  other  activities, 
the  Occupational 
Employment  Statistics  survey  and  the  O*NET  system  for  monitoring  changing  skill  needs 
within occupations. 

including 

CEDEFOP’s  work  on  skills  forecasting  provides  a  European  /  international  example  of 
medium- to long-term skills forecasting. The CEDEFOP intends to produce regular forecasts of 
skills  needs  in  Europe  over  a  5-10  year  horizon.  Work  has  already  started  with  preliminary 
projections  being  published.  This  work  should  produce  evidence  on  future  labour-market 
demand  for  skills  as  measured  by  occupations  and  qualifications.  In  addition,  it  will  involve 
comparisons  between  skill  supply  and  demand  to  indicate  possible  imbalances  on  the  labour 
market  and  an  evaluation  of  projections  against  outcomes.  It  will  provide  an  enriched 
knowledge-base on future skill needs in the European labour market for evidence-based policy 
making, improved labour market intelligence and informed counselling and guidance services. 

The European Commission has sponsored other quantitative projections and modelling. As an 
example,  the  Institute  for  Prospective  Technological  Studies  (IPTS)  has  also  analysed  the 
impact  of  technological  change  on  employment  and  skills  structure  using  quantitative 
projection80.  IPTS  has  also  developed  alternative  scenarios  about  the  increases  in  R&D  and 
innovation expenditures (more diversified or more concentrated on some sectors).  

European experience: medium- and-long term forecasting activities 

. For the forecasts shown in Table 3.3 in Annex 182

A range of medium- and long-term forecasting activities of different types are being carried out 
across Europe81
, which are illustrative of the 
types  of  activities  undertaken,  the  forecast  period  varies,  with  the  medium-term  forecasts 
looking  around  five  years83  ahead  while  the  long-term  forecasts  look  further  forward  (a 
minimum  of  10  years).  In  most  cases,  however,  countries  also  produce  a  short-term  profile 
showing how things are expected to evolve year on year. 

In  countries  where  medium-  and  long-term  forecasting  methods  are  not  apparent,  short-term 
‘forecasting’, other surveys, studies and qualitative methods are typically adopted. Short-term 
forecasting  complements  medium-  and  long-term  forecasts  in  some  countries  whereas  it 
appears to be the only method used in others84

. 

European experience: the orientation and scope of quantitative projections 

80 
81 

82 
83 
84 

See IPTS (2002) for example. 
CEDEFOP’s  Towards  European  skill  need  forecasting  (2007),  Systems,  institutional  frameworks  and 
processes  for  early  identification  of  skills  (2007),  Systems  for  anticipation  of  skill  needs  in  the  EU 
Member States (2008, draft version); SYSDEM responses. 
Based on the SYSDEM responses. 
Forecasts referenced here are regional forecasts. 
Based on analysis of the SYSDEM responses. 

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Table  3.3  in  Annex  1  highlights  the  varied  nature  of  forecasting  activities,  their  purpose  and 
scope.  What  is  done  is  heavily  dependent  on  the  statistical  infrastructure  available  in  each 
country. More sophisticated and more quantitative approaches are only feasible where the state 
has  made  a  substantial  prior  investment  in  data  (i.e.  National  Accounts,  input–output 
information, and consistent time series on employment and other key indicators are available). 
Although just one example is given in most cases, a range of activities are frequently performed 
(see section 3.2.5). 

Forecasting  activities  can  be  demand-oriented85,  but  in  some  cases  have  both  a  supply  and 
demand dimension86. In two countries, Denmark and Germany, forecasting activities examine 
flows through and out of education (schools and higher education). 

In terms of the scope of forecasting activities, most of those shown in Table 3.3 (in the Annex) 
are driven by national forecasts of employment by sector87, which in some cases also include a 
regional  dimension88.  Most  activities  include  occupational  forecasts89,  others  focus  on 
educational levels or groups90, while some do both91.  

European experience: developing and introducing frameworks for forecasting 

Where there is little or no previous experience of forecasting, mechanisms are now being put in 
place  to  anticipate  future  skill  needs  (HR,  LU).  ESF  funding  has  historically  been  used  to 
support the development of forecasting methods (ES, FI and IT). Indeed in Finland, where there 
is  a  long  tradition  of  quantitative  forecasting,  activities  expanded  and  diversified  following 
accession in 1994 with ESF support. 

The  UK  helped  to  organise  a  series  of  international  symposia  and  workshops  in  the  1980s, 
which resulted  in an  exchange of ideas between countries with well-established systems  (e.g. 
FR and DE) and others just beginning to develop their systems (e.g. IE and NL). Subsequently, 
there has been a further diffusion of ideas and best practice from these countries to others. For 
example,  the  Research  Centre  for  Education  and  the  Labour  Market  (ROA)  at  Maastricht 
University works with CERGE-EI to develop forecasting in the Czech Republic, and Ireland is 
working with other countries in Eastern Europe to help them to establish practical and useful 
systems for skills needs anticipation. Many of these initiatives have been under the auspices of 
Cedefop. 

More  recently,  as  part  of  the  Mutual  Learning  Programme  of  the  European  Employment 
Strategy (formerly known as the Peer Review programme), a general review of approaches to 
skills needs assessment was undertaken at a Peer Review meeting in Finland (Helsinki). This 
looked at the Finnish approach to forecasting skills and labour market needs and considered the 
lessons  to  be  learned  from  a  number  of  other  countries92.  The  Lisbon  agenda  and  EU-level 

85 
86 

87 
88 
89 
90 
91 
92 

AT, CY, FR, IE, IT, LT, PL, UK. 
AT, CZ, DK, EE, FI, FR, LT, LV, NL, NO, PL, RO, SE, UK, DE. Countries can appear in more than one 
category where multiple forecasting activities are identified. 
E.g. AT, CY, EE, FI, FR, IE, IT, LT, LV, NL, NO, SE, UK. 
AT, FI, FR, IE, IT, LT, NL, PL, SE, UK. 
AT, CY, EE, FR, IT, LT. 
DE, DK, FI, NO, PL, SE. 
CZ, IE, NL, RO, UK. 
For 
further 
The final report is at: http://pdf.mutual-learning-employment.net/pdf/finland06/Summary%20report.pdf. 

http://www.mutual-learning-employment.net. 

the  website: 

information 

see 

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initiatives  have  contributed  to  the  development  of  systems  for  the  identification  and 
anticipation of skill needs.  

3.1.3. 

Surveys 

Employer surveys 

There are no international surveys directly concerned with the assessment and anticipation of 
skill needs. Cedefop has reviewed what is available recently and concluded that there is little 
prospect  of  any  immediate  harmonisation  of  individual  country  surveys93.  The  SYSDEM 
responses point to a number of employer surveys of various types, which are presented in Table 
3.4  in  Annex  2.  These  surveys  provide  an  illustration  of  the  types  of  survey  activities 
undertaken, though cannot be considered a complete overview of such activities. In line with 
CEDEFOP’s  findings,  the  scale  and  scope  of  the  surveys  conducted  vary  as  do  the 
methodologies adopted. There are potentially many different interests and possible foci for such 
a survey at pan-European level. These include surveys to monitor and measure: 

•  changes in historical employment structure (the demand for skills); 

•  possible future skill needs; 

•  current skill shortages and skill gaps (including various job vacancy surveys); 

•  recruitment practices; 

•  adaptation to change; 

•  links between skills and performance; 

•  continuing vocational training; 

•  different aspects of skills (such as key, core and generic skills). 

One employer survey cannot meet all these needs. There is a need to focus on what are the key 
questions to which answers are needed. What is most useful in terms of anticipating changing 
skill needs will depend on the different approaches adopted to anticipate skill needs as well as 
the state of the existing statistical infrastructure. 

The main method used across the world for projecting future skill needs relies on quantitative 
analysis,  based  on  formal  econometric  models.  However,  good  basic  data  on  occupational 
employment  structure  are  an  essential  prerequisite  for  building  such  models.  The  use  of 
employer surveys as an alternative to such quantitative methods is now being debated94. If the 
prime objective is anticipating future skills needs, then it might appear that focusing on this is 
the  obvious  choice.  However,  past  experience  suggests  that  employers  are  not  very  good  at 

93 
94 

see Wilson, 2008b. 
For example at the joint Cedefop OECD workshop on the use of employer surveys, May 2008. 

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anticipating  their  future  skill  needs95.  Such  results  have  usually  turned  out  to  be  biased  and 
inconsistent. 

Indeed,  employers  can  be  either  too  concerned  by  their  own  company  and  their  local 
constraints, or find it difficult to analyse the key factors, both backwards and forwards, and to 
describe  possible  options,  their  more  likely  strategies  and  occupational  consequences.  This 
points to the need to organise sector councils where a genuine and collective discussion can be 
held, and where consensual positions can be expected, based on clear arguments that all other 
prospective models, especially the statistical ones, usually conceal. 

However,  surveys  of  employers  in  many  countries  are  a  key  element  in  helping  to  anticipate 
changing skill needs. Such surveys can provide crucial insights into current trends, as well as 
providing the basic data for building quantitative models to help anticipate future change.  

There  are  a  number  of  examples  of  good  and  useful  practice.  In  particular,  the  Occupational 
Employment Statistics survey (OES) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the USA 
stands out as delivering robust and very detailed data on both employment and pay, which are 
highly  valued  by  users.  The  OES  started  in  1968  and  has  gradually  established  a  very  sound 
statistical  base  to  build  a  whole  range  of  modelling  and  monitoring  activities,  including  the 
anticipation  of  changing  occupational  structures  as  carried  out  by  the  BLS.  One  of  its  prime 
supporters  from  a  financial  perspective  is  the  agency  responsible  for  monitoring  immigration 
flows.  The  survey  provides  crucial  information  on  changing  patterns  of  demand,  as  well  as 
wages,  which  can  be  used  to  help  identify  occupations  where  there  is  a  case  for  allowing 
inward migration. The availability of data on pay (as well as numbers) provides the basis for 
analysing substitution effects and developing growth accounting models. 

Surveys among workers, learners and graduates 

To assess trends in skills supply and occupations, some cross-country surveys among learners 
and workers are also relevant, including the Labour Force Survey and the European Survey on 
Working  Conditions  conducted  every  five  years  by  the  European  Foundation  for  the 
Improvement  of  Living  and  Working  Conditions.  Both surveys provide a rich supply of pan-
European labour market information.  

A  new  OECD  initiative,  the  Programme  for  the  International  Assessment  of  Adult 
Competencies (PIAAC), will assess the level and distribution of knowledge, skills and attitudes 
in a coherent and consistent way across countries. PIACC, which will be administered for the 
first  time  in  2011,  will  focus  on  the  key  cognitive  and  workplace  skills  that  are  required  for 
successful  participation  in  the  economy  and  society.  To  achieve  this  goal,  four  areas  of 
competency  will  be  assessed  —  problem-solving  in  a  technology-rich  environment,  reading 
literacy, numeracy, and mastery of the basic building blocks of literacy. Data from PIAAC will 
allow  investigation  of  the  links  between  key  cognitive  skills  and  a  range  of  demographic 
variables, economic and other outcomes as well as the use of skills in the workplace and other 
settings. It is expected to provide a rich evidence base for policy-relevant analysis. In particular, 
data from PIAAC should facilitate a better understanding of labour-market returns to education, 
identify  the  role  cognitive  skills  play  in  improving  the  labour  market  prospects  of  at-risk 

95 

See the review in Wilson, et al. (2004). 

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populations,  and  examine  the  efficiency  of  matching  the  skills  possessed  by  individuals  with 
the skills demanded in the workplace. 

Less related to labour market needs, PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) 
and AHELO (Assessment  of Higher Education Learning Outcomes) can nevertheless  provide 
insights into trends in skills supply. Every three years, PISA assesses the knowledge and skills 
of  15  year-old  students.  It  can  track  changes  in  reading,  mathematics  and  scientific 
competences  that  are  useful  in  daily  life.  AHELO  can  help  in  monitoring  reforms  and 
evaluating higher education institutions, by measuring learning outcomes and the ‘added-value’ 
provided by these institutions. However, AHELO is still at a very preliminary stage, since the 
feasibility  study  is  not  expected  until  the  end  of  2010.  According  to  Eurydice  responses, 
surveys among graduates and learners are also widespread at national level. Mostly, however, 
they do not assess learning outcomes, but labour market outcomes96.  

At European level, the surveys undertaken for the Tuning project aim to obtain the opinions of 
graduates,  academics  and  employers  on  skills  requirements,  curricula  and  learning  outcomes. 
Such  consultation  has  been  undertaken  twice  on  quite  a  large  scale.  Every  university 
participating  in  the  surveys  had  to  select  graduates,  academics  and  employers  known  to  hire 
graduates of the university, and ask them to fill in a questionnaire on the importance of a list of 
competences and the level of achievement in these competences:  

– 

– 

– 

instrumental  competences:  capacity  for  analysis  and  synthesis,  capacity  for 
organisation  and  planning,  basic  general  knowledge,  grounding  in  basic 
knowledge  of  a  profession,  oral  and  written  communication  in  one’s  native 
language,  knowledge  of  a  second  language,  elementary  computing  skills, 
information management skills, problem solving, decision making;  

interpersonal  competences:  critical  and  self-critical  abilities, 
teamwork, 
interpersonal  skills,  ability  to  work  in  an  interdisciplinary  team,  ability  to 
communicate  with  experts  in  other  fields,  appreciation  of  diversity  and 
multiculturality, ability to work in an international context, ethical commitment; 

systemic competences: capacity to apply knowledge in practice, research skills, 
capacity  to  learn,  capacity  to  adapt  to  new  situations,  capacity  for  generating 
new  ideas,  leadership,  adaptability  to  work  autonomously,  project  design  and 
management,  initiative  and  entrepreneurial  spirit,  concern  for  quality,  will  to 
succeed.  

Each university was then expected to do the analysis, compare its outcome to other institutions 
and  draw  its  own  conclusions  and  develop  its  own  strategy.  The  Tuning  project  is  thus 
developed by universities for universities in order to allow them to better adapt their curricula 
and define degree programmes in terms of learning outcomes, which leads to qualifications that 
are more transparent and ultimately better tuned to the needs of the labour market. 

Lastly, the LLL2010 project, which is the acronym for " Lifelong Learning 2010 - Towards a 
Lifelong  Learning  Society  in  Europe:  The  Contribution  of  the  Education  System"  will  also 

96 

See,  for  example,  the  French  surveys  ‘Génération  92’,  ‘Génération  98’  and  ‘Génération  2001’, 
undertaken  by  Céreq  in  order  to  analyse  the  labour  market  career  of  each  generation  three  years  after 
leaving the education and training system. 

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43 

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analyse and compare the point of views of individuals, education institutions and enterprises, 
with a focus on adult learners. Its aims and objectives are to study the effect of country-specific 
institutions on access of adults to the education system and to assess the effectiveness of access 
policies  and  practices  in  different  EU  member,  as  well  as  in  associated  countries  and  their 
implications  for  the  creation  of  European  knowledge  society.  Thirteen  different  European 
countries  /  regions  are  involved  in  the  survey:  Austria,  Bulgaria,  Czech  Republic,  England, 
Estonia,  Belgium  (Flanders),  Hungary,  Ireland,  Lithuania,  Norway,  Scotland,  Slovenia  and 
Russian  Federation.  The  study  will  be  carried  out  on  three  levels:  macro,  meso  and  micro  in 
order  to  look  at  the  interaction  and  relationship  between  macro-structural  factors,  national 
policies, institutional factors and adults as potential learners. It is planned to collect data from 
three  different  types  of  sources:  (a)  individuals  (a  survey  of  adult  learners  in  schools  and 
universities,  data  from  Eurostat  driven  Lifelong  Learning  Survey  which  will  take  place  in 
2005); (b) education institutions (interviews with schools' management, officials  of education 
ministries);  (c)  enterprises  (interviews  with  SME  management).  The  methodological  aims  of 
the  project  are  an  assessment  of  indicators  used  in  Eurostat  driven  EU  Lifelong  Learning 
Survey (2005)  and an elaboration of indicators  to  be used  for monitoring lifelong  learning in 
formal education settings97. 

3.1.4.  Foresight: examples at sectoral or regional level  

In  the  field  of  anticipatory  analyses,  the  specificities  and  benefits  of  foresight  exercises  are 
increasingly recognised. The FOR-LERAN  online Foresight Guide developed  by JRC-IPTS98 
underlines  four  characteristics  that  distinguish  foresight  from  the  studies  mentioned  above, 
namely quantitative projections and different kind of surveys.  

-  foresight  activities  are  frequently  more  multidisciplinary  and  opened  to  various  type  of 
information (quantitative and qualitative).  

- Assuming that alternative futures are possible, these activities include the identification and 
description of scenarios.  

- foresight is participatory : it is built on the knowledge and intelligence of various stakeholders 

- it is action-oriented : it considers the actions that should be taken to build the future.  

To  sum  up,  foresight  should  not  only  think  the  future,  but  it  should  also  debate  the 
future and shape it. Various foresights activities, directly or indirectly related to jobs 
and skills are described and map on the IPTS website99. The IPTS is currently looking 
at  how  innovation  in  services  will  affect  skills  and  knowledge100,  using  foresight 
methodology.  One  of  the  most  relevant  foresight  projects  dealing  explicitly  with  the 
future of jobs and skills is undertaken at the sector level. 

Comprehensive  sectoral  analysis  of  emerging  competences  and  economic  activities  in  the 
European Union 

97 
98 
99 
100 

For further information, see the the project website: http://lll2010.tlu.ee 
http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/0_home/index.htm 
http://forera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 
IPTS study for 2009 entitled "Innovation in the European Service Economy- scenarios and implications 
for skills and knowledge" 

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44 

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At European level, the European Commission has commissioned a number of sectoral studies 
using a common foresight methodology to identify emerging competences and changes. Studies 
have started beginning of 2008 and the final results for all studies are expected by May 2009. 
The following sixteen sectors have been identified and selected as sensitive to restructuring and 
skills needs:  

Sectors Covered 

Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products 

Printing and publishing 

Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products 

Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic, etc.) 

Electromechanical engineering 

Computer, electronic and optical products 

Building of ships and boats 

Furniture and other 

Electricity, gas, water & waste 

Distribution, trade 

Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services 

Transport 

Post and telecommunications 

Financial services (bank, insurance and others) 

Health and social work 

Other services, maintenance and cleaning 

The  European  cross-sector  foresight  methodology  that  underpins  these  studies  includes  the 
following steps:  

– 

– 

mapping of a sector, including analysis of the main economic and employment 
trends,  importance  of  the  value  chain  and  outsourced  services,  and  SWOT 
analysis; 

identification of the main drivers of change and the main emerging or changing 
skills and competences in the sector; 

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45 

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– 

– 

– 

– 

– 

sketching  the  main  scenarios  for  plausible  evolution  and  their  implications  for 
employment trends over a period up to 2020; 

identification  of  implications  for  competences  and  occupation  profiles  in  terms 
of jobs expanding, transforming or declining; 

outlining strategic choices to meet the sector’s skills needs; 

identification  of  specific  implications  of  the  sector’s  skills  needs  for  education 
and training; 

recommendations  addressing  the  different  stakeholders  (social  partners,  public 
authorities at all levels, institutions of training and education).  

Scenarios  should  reflect  the  foresight  nature  of  this  exercise.  The  studies  accordingly  differ 
from  the  quantitative  analysis  performed  by  the  Skillsnet  team  together  with  Cedefop.  The 
scenarios here are not based on an extrapolation of past trends into the future with a pessimistic, 
neutral and optimistic scenario. In this foresight exercise, they build upon drivers of the future 
evolution of employment. It is also important to note that scenarios should mainly be affected 
by structural factors rather than cyclical ones given the medium-term horizon. In that sense, the 
current financial crisis and the looming recession may have only limited consequences on the 
direction of the scenarios. This depends also on the sector studied.  

The results of these studies are submitted to a panel of experts in the sectors. These panels are 
constituted of experts in the sectors, from the industry, social partners, academics and experts in 
education and training systems in order to build consensus on the findings and ensure support 
for the recommendations. 

First results from various sectors can illustrate the methodology. The study on the shipbuilding 
industry identifies five key drivers. It then estimates the consequence of each key factor on the 
development of new skills and new jobs. One example illustrating the sketch of scenarios is is 
the automotive study, where two scenarios were developed according to the relative impact of 
the different drivers of change in the sector: a pessimistic scenario, ‘Reduced attractiveness of 
advanced passenger cars’ on the one hand, and an optimistic scenario, ‘New cars for safe and 
sustainable  transport’,  on  the  other.  In  both  scenarios,  strong  demand  is  expected  for  high-
skilled  occupations  such  as  managers,  engineers,  for  more  technical  occupations  such  as 
electricians and for low-skilled workers, while a decline is expected for skilled manual workers 
such as metal moulders, tool makers or mechanics. The implications of the different scenarios 
in terms of jobs and skills are then discussed and estimated. As an example, the study on the 
textiles,  clothing,  footwear  and  leather  products  identifies  the  evolutions  of  skills,  knowledge 
and competences required in different jobs.  

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46 

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The identification of key drivers: the example of the shipbuilding industry 

Globalisation

(cid:137) International customer relationships 
(cid:137) International customer relationships 
(cid:137) International manufacturing & design 
(cid:137) International manufacturing & design 
(cid:137) Multicultural working environments
(cid:137) Multicultural working environments

Innovation

(cid:137) New design methods 
(cid:137) New design methods 
(cid:137) New materials
(cid:137) New materials
(cid:137) New products
(cid:137) New products
(cid:137) New production processes
(cid:137) New production processes

EMERGING COMPETENCES 
IN THE EU SHIPBUILDING 
SECTOR

Multiskilling

(cid:137) Flexible organisations
(cid:137) Flexible organisations
(cid:137) Qualified & specialised personnel
(cid:137) Qualified & specialised personnel
(cid:137) Team work
(cid:137) Team work
(cid:137) Autonomy & proactivity
(cid:137) Autonomy & proactivity

Outsourcing

(cid:137) Coordination & organisation 
(cid:137) Coordination & organisation 
(cid:137) Logistics 
(cid:137) Logistics 
(cid:137) Communication and project management 
(cid:137) Communication and project management 
(cid:137) Marketing/sales 
(cid:137) Marketing/sales 
(cid:137) Finance
(cid:137) Finance

Other knowledge areas

(cid:137) Manpower management & planning 
(cid:137) Manpower management & planning 
(cid:137) Managers and cadres 
(cid:137) Managers and cadres 
(cid:137) Environmental friendly processes & 
(cid:137) Environmental friendly processes & 

products 
products 
(cid:137) Health & safety 
(cid:137) Health & safety 
(cid:137) Quality
(cid:137) Quality

1

The example of the automotive sector: summary of the two European scenarios and level of impact101 

Level of  

Scenario 1 ‘Reduced attractiveness of advanced
cars’ 

Scenario  2  ‘New  car  for  safe  and  sustainable 
transport’ 

impact 

OEMs 

Generalist: 

Generalist: 

–  Massive restructuring 
– 

Consolidation, hostile takeover risk 

Specialist: 

– 

Continuing in niche segment and export

Equipment 

Suppliers 

–  Major restructuring: closure and 

voluntary liquidation 
Consolidation with newcomers from 
emerging countries 
Hostile takeover risk 

– 

– 

– 

– 

– 
– 

Restructuring through mergers / 
acquisition and purchase of new 
activities 
Opportunity for joint ventures with Asian 
partners 
Innovation and cost strategies 
New forms of cooperation 

Specialist:  

– 
– 

– 

– 
– 

Continuing in niche segment and export 
Regrouping of major system 
manufacturers through external growth 
Creation of value chain hierarchy — 
systems, modules, components 
Relocation of component manufacturers 
Creation of large component suppliers 

101 

Idem. 

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47 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
Regional 

–  Major problems for EU15, incl. 

Germany (leading producer in EU) 
Temporary resistance of NMS 

– 

Jobs 
Skills 

and 

Restructuring 

– 
–  Major decline of car industry activities 

in Europe 
Still a need for high-skilled workers 

– 

– 
– 

– 

– 
– 
– 

Improved transport conditions 
Specialisation in Europe around high-
innovation car design centres 
NMS: leading equipment manufacture 
area 
Restructuring, but also creation of jobs 
Major training needs 
Major need for qualified labour 
(managers, engineers, computer 
specialists, electricians) in central and 
eastern Europe 

Knowledge and competences required according to different scenarios; the example of 
the textile industry: 

Function
Function

General management
General management

Marketing and sales
Marketing and sales

Administration
Administration

Research & development
Research & development

Scenario 1
Scenario 1
Globalisation
Globalisation
limited
limited

Scenario 2
Scenario 2
Asian dominance –
Asian dominance –
European 
European 
excellence
excellence

Scenario 3
Scenario 3
Advanced
Advanced
New Member
New Member
States
States

Change 
Change 
management
management
Network
Network
management
management

Consumer
Consumer
oriented
oriented
Socially
Socially
responsible
responsible

Environmental
Environmental
legislation
legislation
(REACH)
(REACH)

Sustainable
Sustainable
products and 
products and 
technologies
technologies
Traditional
Traditional

Strategic, visionary
Strategic, visionary
intercultural
intercultural

Client oriented
Client oriented
Technical
Technical
knowledge
knowledge
Trend setting
Trend setting
Intercultural
Intercultural

International
International
business
business

Quality
Quality
management
management
Market oriented
Market oriented

Competition
Competition
oriented
oriented
Market knowledge
Market knowledge
Intercultural
Intercultural

International 
International 
business
business

Interdisciplinary
Interdisciplinary
Multi-skilled
Multi-skilled
Creative
Creative

Market oriented
Market oriented
Efficiency oriented
Efficiency oriented
Creative
Creative

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48 

   EN 

 
 
 
Process engineering
Process engineering

Energy and 
Energy and 
emission control
emission control
Cost control
Cost control

Supervision of 
Supervision of 
global value chain
global value chain

Cost control
Cost control
Quality control
Quality control

Production
Production

Quality control
Quality control

Logistics
Logistics

Small scale
Small scale
Specialised
Specialised
Crafts-oriented
Crafts-oriented

Client oriented
Client oriented
Technical
Technical
knowledge
knowledge

Quality oriented
Quality oriented
Mass-production
Mass-production

Environmental
Environmental
standards
standards

Diversified
Diversified
standards
standards

Large-scale
Large-scale
control systems
control systems

Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency
oriented
oriented

Delivery-time
Delivery-time
oriented
oriented

Delivery-time
Delivery-time
oriented
oriented

The studies will not be limited to the sectors in the narrow sense, but will also take into account 
the  value  chain  and  outsourced  services.  Furthermore,  a  cross-cutting  analysis  of  the  sectoral 
studies  to  identify  connections  between  sector  activities  and  identify  the  main  horizontal 
activities  is  also  planned  as  a  complement  to  the  sectoral  studies.  The  analysis  should  reveal 
possible transfers of occupations between sectors. This study will be launched in 2009, once the 
sector studies have been completed.  

A  study  on  regional  challenges  looking  ahead  to  2020102  will  also  use  a  scenario-based 
approach. A further study103 will assess the impact of globalisation on regional economies with 
high shares of employment in sectors exposed to global competition.  

At  national  level,  table  3.5  (in  Annex  3)  summarises  the  qualitative  approaches,  including 
foresight processes, used for anticipating skill needs as identified in the SYSDEM responses. 
These examples illustrate the types of qualitative activities undertaken. The examples provided 
in the SYSDEM responses show that a variety of ad hoc studies have been conducted at sector 
level.  A  number  of  regional  studies  have  been  reported,  while  occupational  profiles  and 
qualifications  also  feature  in  the  responses  provided.  Other  sources104  reveal  many  more 
examples in many countries.  

In  addition  to  quantitative  projections  of  occupational  demand  and  skill  requirements,  more 
qualitative exercises are needed, such as foresight analyses, employer surveys, case studies or 
job  competence  modelling  exercises.  These  are  essential  to  identifying  new  trends  in 
competence requirements and changes in the content of occupations. Qualitative surveys offer 
insights  into  industry  dynamics,  technological  developments,  market  and  professional 
constraints,  forms  of  organisation,  employers’  strategies  and  the  threats  they  face.  While  this 
contextual information can be difficult to collect, it helps identify the evolution of occupations 

102 
103 
104 

To be launched by the European Commission at the end of 2008. 
Commissioned by the European Commission. 
See Cedefop (2007), Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for the early identification of skill 
needs, Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion 
paper. 

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49 

   EN 

 
 
                                                 
and forecasting scenarios. While it can be challenging to place occupations within a systemic 
group  of  related  occupations,  this  would  help  to  identify  transferable  competences  and  any 
activities  in  which  workers  could  progress105.  The  development  of  qualification  frameworks 
(such as those mentioned in the Spanish and Portuguese SYSDEM responses) could facilitate 
this process. 

3.1.5.  Towards holistic approaches? 

There is evidence of a holistic approach to anticipating skills needs emerging in Member States, 
using  quantitative  and  qualitative  methods  to  achieve  robust  and  reliable  results.  In  some 
countries, forecasts have become one of many pieces of information that contribute to a more 
detailed, consistent and plausible picture of future skill needs (see Table 3.2)106. 

Table 3.2 Towards holistic systems?  

Towards holistic 
systems?  

Decentralised system 

Characterisation 

Countries  

The  system  is  developed  mostly  at  trade, 
sector  or  local  level.  Systematic  anticipation 
of  skill  needs  at  national  level  is  not  very 
pronounced.  

DK,  ES,  EL,  HU, 
LT,  LV,  PT,  SK, 
SI  

Coordinated 
holistic system 

non-

The  system  is  quite  well-developed  with 
quantitative 
forecasting  being  a  major 
building  block,  although  some  qualitative 
elements are incorporated in the forecasts and 
qualitative surveys are conducted in parallel.  

CY, FI, IE  

the  way 

On 
coordinated 
system 

to  a 
holistic 

CZ, EE, IT, PL  

forecasting 

The  system  is  mostly  based  on  medium-term 
that 
macro-level  quantitative 
incorporates  some  qualitative  elements  of 
sectoral  and/or  other  trend  projections.  A 
number  of  efforts  at  national,  regional  and 
sector  level  aim  for  a  more  systematic, 
complementary  and  holistic  approach.  These 
countries 
establish 
to 
attempting 
permanent skill needs monitoring.  

are 

Coordinated 
system 

holistic 

Very  well-developed  and 
long-established 
system  based  on  medium-  and/or  short-term 
macro-level  forecasts,  a  system  of  sectoral 
studies,  regular  questionnaire-based  skills 
surveys  among  employers,  regular  regional 
surveys on employment 

AT,  DE,  FR,  NL, 
SE, UK  

105 
106 

Mériot, 2004. 
CEDEFOP (2008), Systems for anticipation of skills needs in the EU, discussion paper. 

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50 

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Source: CEDEFOP (2008) 

In both the French and UK cases, forecasting has sectoral and geographical dimensions and is 
supported  by  surveys  and  qualitative  studies  and  scenarios.  In  the  UK  case,  the  Working 
Futures projections are part of a much broader holistic approach to assessing future skills needs, 
as set out in the Leitch report. Further information on the UK context and approach is given in 
Box 3.3. The recent work on ‘Jobs in 2015’ (Les métiers en 2015), conducted by DARES and 
the  "Centre  d’Analyse  Stratégique"  in  France,  is  also  a  good  example  of  a  comprehensive 
assessment of future skills needs.  

Box 3.3: UK’s approach to anticipating skill needs 

The  establishment  of  the  Learning  and  Skills  Council  (with  its  47  local  arms)  and  the 
development of the Sector Skills Councils (SSCs) signalled the UK government’s intention 
that  the  anticipation  of  training  and  qualification  needs  should  be  driven  largely  by  labour 
market needs at national, regional and local level. 

also  being  used.  Quantitative  methods 

Traditional  labour  market  forecasting  techniques  have  been  refined  and  holistic  approaches 
are 
techniques, 
behavioural/econometric  models  (using  the  multi-sectoral  dynamic  model  maintained  by 
Cambridge  Econometrics),  employer  surveys  and  skills  audits.  Qualitative  approaches 
include  Delphi  techniques,  case  studies,  focus  groups  and  holistic  modelling  approaches, 
such as scenarios. SSCs also consult with employers and gather qualitative information from 
them  and  sector  experts.  They  can  also  commission  bespoke,  sector-specific  forecasts  and, 
with awarding bodies, review the uptake of qualifications. 

extrapolative 

include 

Activities  anticipating  skill  needs  are  oriented  sectorally  and  have  a  regional  and  local 
dimension. 

Each of the 25 SSCs is required by Government to develop a sector skills agreement between 
employers  and  education  and  training  providers  in  their  sector.  As  employer-led 
organisations,  SSCs  are  charged  with  the  task  of  representing  employers’  skills  needs  to 
Government  and  raising  employers’  demand  for  skills.  SSCs  also  represent  the  interests  of 
other  stakeholders,  e.g.  unions.  The  process  of  developing  skills  agreements  starts  with  a 
skills  needs  assessment.  In  this  assessment,  SSCs  are  required  to  forecast  employment  and 
skills needs within their sector. This is achieved by using: 

•  the  existing  quantitative  forecasts  for  the  UK  (i.e.  ‘Working  Futures’),  which  provide 
cross-sector, consistent and comparable projections using national sources of information 
system and bespoke, sector-specific forecasts; 

•  qualitative scenarios developed with sector employers. 

The  sector  skills  agreement  is  now  recognised  as  one  of  the  mechanisms  through  which 
employer skills needs in the UK are identified and met. 

The strengths of this approach to anticipating skills needs are as follows: 

•  it is grounded in employer consultation; 

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51 

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•  it  combines  cross-sector,  comparable  sources  of  information  based  on  robust  national 
sources  of  information  structured  by  SIC  (standard  industrial  classification)  with 
qualitative information gathered from sector experts and employers; 

•  each  SSC  is  required  to  follow  the  same  process,  thus  facilitating  interaction  with  the 

supply side. 

However,  forecasts  are  also  used  for  many  other  purposes  in  the  UK,  including  careers 
guidance and advice, with detailed information available on-line (see: http://www.guidance-
research.org/). 

This detailed and sophisticated forecasting is feasible because of the substantial investment in 
statistical infrastructure, including: national accounts; input/output tables; the annual business 
inquiry; the labour force survey; and the population census. 

One  outcome  of  the  skills  forecasting  and  survey  work  is  the  development  of  national 
occupational  standards.  These  are  specified  in  the  form  of  units  aggregated  to  meet  the 
qualification  needs  of  specific  occupations,  which  are  identified  by  a  parallel  process  of 
occupational mapping. 

3.1.6. 

Issues arising from the review of anticipatory tools: is Europe lagging behind? 

Statistical  infrastructure  is  the  key  to  what  is  possible.  There  is  a  need  to  invest  in  more  and 
better data across Europe, as well as in individual Member States. The experience of countries 
with long-standing forecasting experience is being transferred to countries where forecasting is 
being introduced or at an early stage of development. A key issue at the country level is that, 
while there are common principles, their application varies. For example, national experiences 
differ  in  terms  of  the  periodicity  and  level  of  detail  (spatial,  sectors  and  occupations)  of  the 
forecasting  methods.  A  wide  range  of  approaches  and  techniques  have  been  adopted  and  are 
being used. Successful forecasting often forms part of a holistic approach where the forecasts 
sit alongside other complementary surveys and / or qualitative research. 

Outside  Europe,  countries  have  already  decided  that  there  is  a  clearly  established  case  for 
regular anticipation of economic and labour market change in order to deal with problems of 
restructuring, and to make the most of the opportunities offered by new technologies. The USA 
and China are investing huge sums in such work. Much is already going on in Europe, but with 
the  exception  of  the  countries  identified  as  adopting  or  introducing  holistic  approaches, 
activities  tend  to  be  piecemeal  and  can  be  ad  hoc.  There  is  an  order  of  magnitude  difference 
compared with countries such as the USA. In 2005, the latest year for which data are available, 
the US Bureau of Labor Statistics invested almost 6 million dollars in quantitative employment 
projections.  This  compares  to  around  0.25  million  euros  spent  by  Cedefop  on  the  only 
equivalent  project  in  Europe.  Individual  Member  States  are  doing  such  work,  but  in  the  US, 
forecasts are also conducted at country-wide level. This suggests that there is scope for Europe 
to do more in anticipating future skills needs. In the last three years, Europe has already started 
to invest more in skills needs analysis.  

3.2.  Mapping and evaluation of matching policies in Europe 

This section considers the use and application of anticipatory methods and associated changes 
in policies and practice. It examines: 

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•  Changes in policy and practice resulting from the anticipation and assessment of skill needs. 

•  Demand-led systems and matching processes involving employers and social partners.  

The  section  draws  on  the  available  literature  and  is  informed  by  the  SYSDEM  and  Eurydice 
responses. As with section 3.2 above, the SYSDEM and Eurydice responses are illustrative of 
practices and do not provide a comprehensive overview of all activities.  

3.2.1.  Changes  in  policies  and  practice  resulting  from  anticipation  and  assessment  of  skill 

needs 

National  and  regional  policy  makers  and  education  and  labour  market  stakeholders  are  key 
audiences  for  anticipatory  methods  that  can  be  used  to  inform  policy  development  and 
associated practice (e.g. VET and higher education). The focus of this section is on anticipation 
/matching processes that have influenced: 

•  education and training policies and practice; 

•  active labour market policies;  

•  migration policy; 

•  processes and infrastructure facilitating matching activities.  

Education and training policies and practice  

The  SYSDEM  and  Eurydice  responses  yielded  examples  of  matching  policies  influencing 
planning and budgetary decisions, curriculum development, more responsive VET and higher 
education,  careers  guidance  and  the  development  of  occupational  standards.  However,  the 
analysis also identified cases where there is a disconnect between anticipatory methods and the 
policy-making  process.  This  latter  issue  is  explored  before  the  examples  of  practice  are 
introduced.  

Even  where  some  of  the  systems  for  forecasting  skill  supply  and  demand  are  well-developed 
and  incorporate  quantitative  and  qualitative  methods,  weak  cross-linkages  between  activities 
(fragmentation)  and  the  absence  of  any  systematic  use  of  their  outcomes  hamper  the 
effectiveness of efforts to match labour supply and demand. This is particularly evident where 
the results of various forecasting activities are not fed into the educational policy process in a 
systematic manner107.  

Informing planning and budgetary decisions of Education Ministries 

Anticipation results and assessment of skills needs are used by some Ministries of Education to 
inform planning and budgetary decisions associated with the policy-making process. Examples 
from Denmark, Finland and Ireland are given in the Box below.  

Box 3.4: Practices in DK, FI, IE 

107 

SYSDEM responses. 

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In  Denmark,  labour  market  forecasts  influence budgeting for education  and  training. Short- 
and  medium-term  projections  (2-3  years)  guide  the  planning  and  design  of  education  and 
training  budgets.  Forecasts  are  also  used  (though  not  systematically)  by  educational 
establishments to anticipate student intake.  

In  Finland,  quantitative  skill  forecasts  have  been  utilised  in  drafting  the  latest  Education 
Development Plan, which is updated every four years. The latest plan (2003-2008) includes 
development measures for each field and level of education, the main education and research 
policy guidelines and a framework for resource allocation. 

In  September  2005  the  Irish  Department  of  Enterprise,  Trade  and  Employment  (DETE) 
requested  the  Expert  Group  on  Future  Skills  Needs  (EGFSN)  to  undertake  research  to 
underpin the development of a National Skills Strategy, including identification of the skills 
required for Ireland to develop over the period to 2020 as a competitive, innovation-driven, 
knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy. In 2006 the Expert Group published 
employment  forecasts  for  the  period  to  2020  (Current  Trends  in  Occupational  Employment 
and  Forecasts  for  2010  and  2020).  The  results  were  used  to  inform  the  preparation  of  the 
2007 report ‘Tomorrow’s Skills — Towards a National Skills Strategy’. 

Sources: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses 

More responsive VET and higher education provision 

Enhancing  the  human  capital  of  Europe  requires  Member  States  to  develop  responsive  VET 
and  higher  education  approaches  to  labour  market  needs.  Evidence  suggests  that  the 
engagement of social partners and the use of quantitative and qualitative anticipation methods 
are helping to make VET and higher education more responsive to employer needs. Responses 
from  SYSDEM  and  Eurydice  provide  evidence  of  vocational  education  and  training  policies 
and  practices  intended  to  address  mismatches  in  labour  supply  and  demand.  Examples  from 
Denmark, Italy and Lithuania are given in the Box below.  

Box 3.5: More responsive VET: examples from DK, IT and LT 

The Danish Ministry of Education has established a procedure to systematically measure the 
relevance  of  VET  courses  using  student  employment  rates  upon  VET  completion.  An 
employment  rate  of  75%  is  set  as  a  target  and  programmes  that  do  not  meet  this  figure  are 
required to explain shortfalls. 

In Lithuania the Barometer of Employment Opportunities is a short-term (12-month) forecast 
of  skill  shortages  in  occupations  and  is  used  by  the  authorities  to  help  plan  vocational 
education and training.  

In  Italy,  various  regions  have  been  carrying  out  projects  for  the  early  identification  of 
employment  and  training  needs  and  have  used  these  to  guide  the  direction  and  emphasis  of 
training  courses.  These  initiatives  have  been  informed  by  surveys  of  employers  and  other 
stakeholders.  Projects  have  been  successfully  implemented  in  the  regions  of  Valle  d’Aosta, 
Friuli  Venezia  Giulia,  Sardegna,  Liguria  and  Veneto,  as  well  as  in  the  provinces  of  Trento, 

108 

SYSDEM responses. 

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Bolzano and Firenze108. 

The  ‘Mitenna’  model  is  used  in  Finland  to  generate  quantitative  projections  of  vocational 
education and training needs (see Box 3.6 below). The results of these quantitative forecasts are 
used by various agencies for a range of different purposes at national and regional levels, but 
primarily to steer the development of VET and other education and training policies. 

Text Box 3.6: The Mitenna project in Finland 

The  Mitenna  project  (‘Project  to  Anticipate  Quantitative  Educational  Needs  in  Vocational 
Education and Training’) was implemented by the National Board of Education with support 
from the Ministry of Education and the European Social Fund at the end of the 1990s. The 
forecasting model was established to produce statistical and other information necessary for 
anticipating  skill  needs.  Its  outputs  included  national  forecasts  of  educational  needs,  which 
were  then  analysed  for  different  fields  of  study  and  levels  of  education  (initial  vocational 
education and in higher education). 

The  model  is  used  for  anticipating  vocational  training  and  skills  needs  nationally  and 
regionally.  It  has  been  updated  and,  for  example,  provides  projections  on  the  need  for 
vocational training places. Regions produce their own tailored forecasts of educational needs 
based  on  the  nationwide  forecast  and  on  regional  growth.  The  model  provides  an  ‘early 
warning system’, as it recognises expanding as well as contracting sectors, occupations, skill 
demand,  technologies,  and  changes  in  production  methods.  The  outputs  are  used  by  the 
regions  in  their  strategic  planning  processes  and  by  the  Ministry  of  Education  to  decide  on 
the  distribution  of  licences  for  the  delivery  of  upper  secondary  VET.  They  also  inform  the 
negotiations between the Ministry of Education, universities and polytechnics when agreeing 
on their educational provision (within the performance-based management system).  

Sources:  The  Finnish  National  Board  of  Education  (www.oph.fi);  SYSDEM  and  Eurydice 
responses  

Turning  to  higher  education,  examples  from  Germany  and  Estonia  highlight  how  forecasting 
activities have been used to inform higher education provision. 

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55 

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Box 3.7: Forecasting to inform higher education  

In  Germany,  the  Permanent  Conference  of  the  Länder  Ministers  for  Education  and  Cultural 
Affairs (KMK, Kultusministerkonferenz) has produced statistical forecasts of student numbers 
and university graduates since 1992. These projections are updated every two years and cover 
the  time  period  to  2020.  The  approach  is  based  on  a  status-quo  forecast  for  labour  supply 
(demographic  changes  excepted,  all  parameters  relating  to  propensity  to  enter  university 
education,  duration  of  studies  and  drop-out  rates  are  kept  constant).  The  projections  provide 
important  statistics  on  the  number  of  students  (entrants,  students  and  graduates)  from 
universities  by  Länder,  nationality  and  type  of  university.  They  are  mainly  used  for 
administrative purposes by regional authorities (Länder). 

In  Estonia,  annual  labour  market  forecasts  examine  the  number  of  new  jobs  created, 
movements  between  economic  sectors  and  retirement  ratios.  These  data  are  used  to  produce 
predictions  of  future  labour  market  needs.  The  work  is  led  by  the  Ministry  of  Economic 
Affairs  and  Communications,  while  the  forecasts  are  primarily  used  by  the  Ministry  of 
Education and Research to inform funding decisions on higher education and VET. 

Source: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses 

Development or redefinition of national occupation and VET standards 

Forecasting  and  associated  quantitative  and  qualitative  surveys  of  employers  and  other 
stakeholders play an important role in defining and redefining occupational and VET standards. 
Such  activities  are  being  carried  out  in  Italy,  where  the  national  system  for  the  permanent 
observation  of  employment  needs  (Sistema  nazionale  per  l’osservazione  permanente  dei 
fabbisogni  professionali)  has  contributed  to  improving  occupational  classifications  and  their 
descriptive  structures.  In  the  UK,  one  outcome  of  skills  forecasting  and  survey  work  is  the 
development  of  national  occupational  standards  related  to  qualification  needs.  This  link  to 
qualifications  is  also  apparent  in  Lithuania,  where  skill  needs  are  evaluated  in  the  course  of 
developing  VET  standards  and  programmes  as  well  as  through  sectoral  studies  and  labour 
market  forecasts109.  In  particular,  the  development  of  occupational  standards  in  tripartite 
collaboration  and  their  subsequent  linkage  to  competence-based  qualification  profiles  are 
recognised as a way of making VET responsive to labour market needs (e.g. Hungary, Poland, 
Slovenia)110.  

Most Member States point to the efficiency of accreditation, assessment and quality assurance 
systems  in  ongoing  cooperation  to  incorporate  the  competence  and  skill  needs  of  the  labour 
market within VET provision111. Here, Member States rely on the European tools developed as 
part  of  the  Copenhagen  process:  the  European  Credit  System  for  VET  (ECVET)  and  the 
Common  Quality  Assurance  Reference  Framework  for  VET  (CQARF).  Qualification 
frameworks and their compatibility with the European Qualification Framework (EQF) are also 
often mentioned as important for linking training to labour market requirements112. 

109 

110 
111 
112 

The first VET standards were prepared in 1999, and 86 standards had been adopted by 2006. Another 100 
standards are being developed. 
Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 
Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 
Cedefop (2008), Systems for the anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States, discussion paper. 

EN 

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Development or redefinition of higher education standards: Bologna process and European 
tools 

In  higher  education,  efforts  to  improve  the  transparency  of  qualifications  and  to  support 
mobility  have  been  undertaken  as  part  of  the  Bologna  Process.  This  Process  aims  to  create  a 
European Higher Education Area (EHEA) that will facilitate the mobility of students, graduates 
and higher education staff, prepare students for their future careers and for life as active citizens 
in  democratic  societies,  and  support  their  personal  development,  by  offering  broad  access  to 
high-quality  higher  education,  based  on  democratic  principles  and  academic  freedom.  The 
Process  encompasses  46  EU  and  other  European  countries113  and  seeks  to  advance  reforms 
leading  to  comparable  degrees  organised  in  a  three-cycle  structure  (i.e.  bachelor-master-
doctorate). A further aim is to develop quality assurance in accordance with the Standards and 
Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the European Higher Education Area (ESG). The Process 
also seeks to ensure fair recognition of degrees and other higher education qualifications in the 
EHEA,  in  accordance  with  the  Council  of  Europe/UNESCO  Recognition  Convention114.  The 
recognition  of  qualifications  falls  within  the  competence  of  each  country.  In  most  cases,  this 
means that higher education institutions are responsible for the recognition of qualifications for 
the  purpose  of  further  study  whereas  professional  bodies  or  employers  are  responsible  for 
recognition  for  the  purposes  of  the  labour  market.  Tools  that  facilitate  the  recognition  of 
qualifications  are  the  European  Credit  Transfer  and  Accumulation  System  (ECTS)115  and  the 
Diploma Supplement (DS)116. To help develop good practice and a common understanding of 
recognition,  the  Council  of  Europe,  UNESCO/CEPES  and  the  European  Commission 
coordinate the ENIC and NARIC Networks117. The Networks develop good practice and policy 

Tuning  Educational  Structures  in  Europe  is  a  university-driven  project  with  a  concrete 
approach to implementing the Bologna process. Five lines of approach are distinguished:  

1. Generic competences and transversal skills; 

2. Subject-specific competences;  

3. Role of ECTS as an accumulation system; 

4. Approaches to learning, teaching and assessment;  

5. Role of quality enhancement in the educational process 

The surveys of skills needs and skills achievement have been used to help determine the weak 
and strong points that could help to refine policy. The Tuning project underlines the need for 
consultation and constant revision of information on the adequacy of curricula and skills needs. 

113 

114 
115 
116 
117 

Albania,  Andorra,  Armenia,  Austria,  Azerbaijan,  Belgium,  Bosnia-Herzegovina,  Bulgaria,  Croatia, 
Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, France, 
Georgia, Germany, Greece, Holy See, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, 
Luxembourg,  Malta,  Moldova,  Montenegro,  Netherlands,  Norway,  Poland,  Portugal,  Romania,  Russian 
Federation,  Serbia,  Slovak  Republic,  Slovenia,  Spain,  Sweden,  Switzerland,  Turkey,  Ukraine,  United 
Kingdom. 
http://www.ond.vlaanderen.be/hogeronderwijs/bologna/documents/LRC/Lisbon_for_pedestrians.pdf 
http://ec.europa.eu./education/programmes/socrates/ects/index_en.html 
http://ec.europa.eu/education/policies/rec_qual/recognition/diploma_en.html 
http://www.enic-naric.net/ 

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It  is  a  useful  tool  to  help  universities  define  and  redefine  qualifications,  thus  facilitating 
mobility and transparency on the labour market. 

Careers guidance  

Labour market information (surveys and forecasts) provide an important resource for education 
policy developers. It is also important for careers guidance practitioners and individuals using 
such  services.  The  examples  in  the  preceding  sections  have  focused  on  how  labour  market 
information  has  helped  in  planning  education  and  training  provision  and  identifying 
opportunities for students on completion of their studies. Occupational projections also have a 
key  role  to  play  in  helping  individuals  make  informed  career  decisions.  In  Denmark,  for 
example,  regional  and  national  short-term  forecasts  of  labour  demand  by  sectors  and 
occupations are essential tools for job centre staff in guiding jobseekers’ career choices. Similar 
examples can also be found in Luxembourg and Ireland (see Box 3.8 below).  

Box 3.8: The use of anticipatory methods in informing careers guidance  

In  Denmark,  the  National  Labour  Market  Authority  and  the  four  Danish  labour  market 
regions  produce  detailed,  short-term  assessments  of  labour  demand  by  sectors  and 
occupations,  and  associated  mismatches,  on  a  six-monthly  basis.  The  resulting  analyses 
provide  day-to-day  careers  counselling  and  guidance  tools  for  PES  staff  working  with  the 
unemployed. 

In  Luxembourg,  a  regular  employer  survey  (approx.  200  businesses)  carried  out  by  three 
business organisations (the Business Federation of Luxembourg — FEDIL, the Luxembourg 
Bankers’ Association and the Chamber of Commerce) is used to inform policy development 
and  career  planning.  Young  people  use  the  results  from  this  survey  to  help  inform  career 
choices. 

In Ireland, the medium-term projections for employment classified by sector and occupation 
were initially designed for the development of medium-term training policies. The results are 
now  being  used  as  a  careers  guidance  tool  because  they  can  be  easily  accessed  via  the 
internet. 

Source: SYSDEM responses  

Looking  outside  Europe,  the  American  tools  ‘O*Net’  and  ‘CareerOneStop’  are  interesting 
examples of the use of labour market information to inform career choices.  

Text Box 3.9: The American practice: O*Net and CareerOneStop 

The  O*NET  database  (http://online.onetcenter.org),  developed  by  the  US  Department  of 
Labor, is an online database providing occupational information accessible in different ways. 
Users  can  access  very  detailed  occupational  information:  a  definition,  tasks,  knowledge, 
skills,  abilities,  work  activities,  work  context,  job  zone,  work  styles,  and  finally  wages  and 
employment trends, both at national USA level, and on a state-by-state basis. For example, 
looking  up  Business  teachers  or  postsecondary  teachers  (SOC  code  25-1011.00)  yields  the 
following results: 

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Median wages (2007) $64 900 annual 

Employment (2006)  1 672 000 employees 

Projected growth (2006-2016) 

Much greater than average (21% or higher) 

Projected need (2006-2016)  662 000 additional employees 

The website CareerOneStop  (http://www.careeronestop.org/)  is related to O*NET.  It allows 
people  to  evaluate  their  skill  profiles.  While  CareerOne  Stop  is  a  useful  tool  with  a  solid 
scientific  basis,  it  has  its  critics.  The  approach  is  based  on  individuals’  own  perception  of 
skill levels and is not moderated by professional guidance.  

Though the methodology is different, the EurOccupations project can be considered a first step 
towards a European description of occupational skill needs (see Box 3.10 below). The outputs 
from the EurOccupations project could be disseminated and used through existing portals, e.g. 
EURES, the European Employment Service and PLOTEUS (Portal on Learning Opportunities 
Throughout the European Space).  

Box 3.10: Towards a European database on occupations?  

The  EurOccupations  project  (www.euroccupations.org),  funded  by  the  Socio-economic 
Sciences  and  Humanities  programme  under  Sixth  Framework  Programme  of  the  European 
Union up to May 2009, is managed by the Erasmus University of Rotterdam. EurOccupations 
aims  to  build  a  publicly  available  occupational  database,  including  information  on 
approximately  1 500  occupations  in  eight  European  countries  (Belgium,  France,  Germany, 
Italy,  the  Netherlands,  Poland,  Spain  and  the  UK).  For  a  selection  of  150  occupations,  the 
database also includes task descriptions, competences, education requirements, qualifications 
and ‘on-the-job-training’ for each of the eight participating countries. It thus offers an insight 
into the comparability of occupational structures and occupational content across Europe. 

Active labour market policies  

Forecasting activities allow Public Employment Services (PES) to develop anticipatory training 
provision. The results  of  an  annual  employer survey carried out by the PES are  an important 
tool for the labour market authorities in Latvia. They inform the planning and organisation of 
PES  activities  and  professional  training  for  the  unemployed118.  In  Sweden,  the  labour  market 
surveys  performed  by  the  Swedish  Labour  Market  Authority  (AMS,  Var  finns  jobben),  and 
Statistics  Sweden  (SCB  arbetkraftbarometer)  constitute  an  efficient  tool  for  planning  and 
providing training as part of Sweden’s active labour market policy. The Job Vacancy Survey by 
the  German  Federal  Labour  Agency  is  widely  used  to  identify  sectoral  and  occupational 
changes in labour demand. The results provide information for the Federal Labour Agency, for 
example on the impact of labour market policies.  

118 

SYSDEM responses. 

EN 

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A  number  of  Member  States  have  also  re-organised  or  re-oriented  their  public  employment 
services  in  an  effort  to  match  labour  supply  and  demand.  These  efforts  have  resulted  in  the 
creation of a National Continuous Labour Exchange (Borsa Continua Nazionale del Lavoro) in 
Italy and the establishment of a network of Centres for Employment Promotion in Greece. 

Text Box 3.11: Sharing information between public employment services 

National Continuous Labour Exchange (Borsa Continua Nazionale del Lavoro), Italy 

The National Continuous Labour Exchange was launched in 2003 and has been operational 
since 2005. The Exchange is a network connecting public and private employment services, 
registered employers and job-seekers. Employers can post vacancies and job-seekers can post 
their  applications  and  CVs  on  the  network.  The  network  has  regional  nodes.  Currently,  18 
regions (out of 21) are linked to the network. It has been found to increase the efficiency and 
transparency of the matching process, and to favour geographical mobility. 

Centres for Employment Promotion (KPE), Greece 

In  Greece,  the  implementation  of  a  policy  emphasising  the  matching  of  skills  demand  and 
supply  has  led  to  the  establishment  of  a  modern  network  of  Centres  for  Employment 
Promotion  (KPE)  and  the  re-organisation  of  the  public  employment  service  (OAED). 
Currently,  the  Centres  for  Employment  Promotion  aim  to  incorporate  three  basic  PES 
functions (a) placement and counselling services; (b) payment of unemployment benefits; and 
(c) management of labour market programmes.  

Source: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses  

Immigration policies 

Some  countries  and  regions  have  used  the  results  of  quantitative  and/or  qualitative  skill 
assessments to re-adjust their immigration policies. For example, the Flemish government has 
introduced  a  transitional  arrangement  to  match  its  immigration  policy  with  local  labour  and 
skill shortages119. This arrangement is based on a quantitative analysis of hard-to-fill vacancies 
and additional information from an employer survey. In practice, this means that between 2006 
and 2009 migration from the new Member States will be managed so that migrants can apply 
for ‘hard to fill’ vacancies.  

In  September  2008,  the  British  government  announced  a  new  ‘points-based’  immigration 
system whereby workers from outside the EU are only allowed to take up jobs in skill-shortage 
occupations. The list includes skilled nurses and consultants, engineering jobs, and maths and 
English teachers. Currently the UK Migration Advisory Committee does not use projections as 
a direct input into its thinking, mainly because they are not detailed enough, but it is planning to 
explore this further in future work. 

Processes and infrastructure to facilitate matching 

In  order  to  unify  forecasting  methods  and  practices  and  make  use  of  the  results  in  a  more 
systematic  manner,  several  Member  States  have  implemented  structures  such  as  multi-

119 

SYSDEM response. 

EN 

60 

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stakeholder steering committees or appointed specific institutes to oversee development work 
in  a  more  coherent  manner.  Recent  examples  of  such  practice  can  be  found,  for  example,  in 
Germany, Greece, Italy, Finland, Ireland and Latvia. In the UK, foresight activities have been 
linked to science and technological developments. These use scenario development methods to 
harness insights from a multidisciplinary range of experts.  

Text Box 3.12: Developing infrastructure 

Activities for the early identification of skill needs are being re-organised in Germany by 
the  Federal  Ministry  for  Education  and  Research  (BMBF),  the  Federal  Institute  for 
Vocational  Training  (BiBB)  and  the  Institute  for  Employment  Research  (IAB).  The 
approach is based on the experience of FreQueNz, the network for the early identification 
of  skill  needs  managed  by 
the  Fraunhofer-Institut  für  Arbeitswissenschaft  und 
Organisation  (Fraunhofer  Institute  for  labour  science  and  organisation)  since  1999.  The 
new approach is intended to integrate existing data sources and develop methods for long-
term  forecasts  of  skill  needs  that  go  beyond  the  models  hitherto  recommended  by  the 
Permanent  Conference  of  the  Länder  Ministers  for  Education  and  Cultural  Affairs 
(Kultusministerkonferenz). 

In  Finland,  a  range  of  structures  have  been  put  in  place  to  utilise  the  results  of  both 
quantitative and qualitative forecasting activities in a more coherent manner, including: 

The establishment of a Foresight Network, which functions as a coordination network and 
discussion  forum  for  the  various  ministries  engaged  in  forecasting.  The  Network’s  tasks 
are to coordinate forecasting activities, improve forecasting skills and enhance interaction 
between central, regional and local administrations. It also monitors the use of anticipation 
results in decision-making. The network is currently led by the Ministry of Education. 

The operation of 34 tripartite National Education and Training Committees. The task of the 
Committees is to follow, evaluate, anticipate and analyse the development of skills needed 
in the labour market, to make suggestions for the qualitative and quantitative development 
of  training,  to  define  the  core  curriculum  and  qualification  requirements  and  to  highlight 
challenges in their sector. Recently, the Ministry of Education together with the National 
Board of Education has set up a specialist coordination group for the anticipation of skills 
and  training  needs.  Its  task  is  to  reconcile  and  develop  anticipation  work  done  by  the 
sector-specific National Education and Training Committees. 

The National Board of Education coordinates the regional forecasting activities regarding 
labour and educational needs carried out by the Regional Councils and their partners. 

In  Greece,  the  establishment  of  a  national  system  for  linking  vocational  education  and 
training  with  employment  (ESSEEKA)  ensures  a  holistic  approach  to  the  assessment  of 
labour  supply  and  demand  —  through  better  definition  of  roles  and  responsibilities, 
enhanced provision for collaboration and cooperation between institutional agents, and the 
inclusion of stakeholders in this process. The system provides a forum for concerted action 
that  is  expected  to  contribute  to  defining  future  skill  requirements  more  rapidly  and 

EN 

61 

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effectively and to making the Greek education and training system more responsive to the 
challenges  faced120.  ESSEEKA  was  established  by  law  in  2003  and  aims  to  match  VET 
provision with labour market needs by better defining and assessing the links between the 
two and developing them within an integrated framework121. 

Sources: SYSDEM and Eurydice responses  

3.2.2.  Matching processes involving employers and social partners 

Employers have a vested interest in the quality and standard of education and the availability of 
labour. Training costs for new staff depend on the extent to which educational systems provide 
qualifications  that  prepare  workers  to  perform  more  or  less  immediately  without  any  further 
training.  Evidence  from  the  literature122  and  SYSDEM/Eurydice  responses  suggests  that 
employers (and social partners) are increasingly involved in the planning and implementation 
of education and labour market policy, mainly through the involvement of their representative 
organisations  (employers’  organisations  and  confederations  at  national,  sectoral  and  local 
levels) in: 

•  tripartite  councils  on  labour,  education  and  training  matters  at  national,  regional  and  local 

levels; 

•  consultation procedures for education-related legislation and policies; 

•  tripartite sector committees; 

•  collective bargaining at cross-sectoral, sectoral, regional and local levels. 

As  a  result  of  increased  employer  involvement  in  tripartite  councils  concerning  labour, 
education and training matters, they are also better placed to contribute to and make use of the 
various  different  forecasting  methodologies  employed  by  national  education,  training  and 
labour  market  authorities.  Examples  of  the  involvement  of  employers  in  such  tripartite 
structures  can  be  found  in  Denmark  and  Ireland,  among  others.  There  are  also  examples 
illustrating the involvement of employers in the implementation of matching policies, including 
the German National Training Pact and the French agreement with social partners on "Gestion 
Prévisionnelle  des  Emplois  et  des  Competences  (GPEC)".  These  are  illustrated  below  in  Box 
3.15. 

Box 3.15: The increasing involvement of employers 

In  Denmark,  six  Regional  Growth  Fora  were  created  as  part  of  the  regional  and  local 
government reform at the beginning of 2007. The fora bring together representatives of the 
business community, knowledge and educational establishments, labour market stakeholders 
as well as local and regional authorities — actors with first-hand knowledge of the challenges 

120 
121 
122 

Survey of national Eurydice units for New Skills for New Jobs, 2008. 
Note: Some of the activities under the system are not yet operational. 
For  example,  Winterton,  J.  (2006),  Social  dialogue  and  vocational  training  in  Europe.  Journal  of 
European  Industrial  Training;  Heideman,  W.  (2002),  ‘Current  developments  within  social  dialogue  in 
selected  European  countries’  in  Lifelong  Learning,  Hans  Böckler  Stiftung;  CEDEFOP  survey  on  the 
nature and extent of social dialogue around VET. 

EN 

62 

   EN 

 
                                                 
of the business community and the regional conditions for growth. One task of the regional 
fora is to strengthen the ties between regional educational institutions and regional employers 
so  as  to  boost  the  development  of  human  resources  and  the  competitiveness  of  regional 
companies. 

During their first year of operation, the regional growth fora produced regional development 
plans  analysing  the  challenges  of  each  region  and  outlining  a  number  of  activities  to  be 
encouraged  in  order  to  stimulate  growth  and  employment.  Part  of  this  work  analysed  the 
future skills needs and education systems of each region. 

The  Expert  Group  on  Future  Skills  Needs  (EGFSN)  was  established  in  Ireland  in  1997  in 
response  to  increasing  concerns  about  labour  and  skills  shortages  in  Ireland.  The  Group 
comprises  representatives  of  employers,  employees,  the  education  sector,  government 
departments and state agencies. The Group acts as the central national resource on skills and 
labour supply for the enterprise sector. The Group conducts systematic and detailed analyses 
to: 

•  Advise Government on skills and labour supply issues for the enterprise sector; 

•  Advise Government on projected requirements and make recommendations on the actions 

required to address identified needs; 

•  Regularly follow up these recommendations with the bodies responsible for implementing 

them, to facilitate and assess progress in implementation; 

•  Consider  strategic  issues  in  developing  partnerships  between  business  and  the  education 

and continuous training sectors for meeting the skills needs of business. 

National Training Pact (Nationaler Pakt für Ausbildung und Fachkräftenachwuchs), Germany 

In  2004  the  main  labour  market  actors  in  Germany  signed  a  national  training  pact.  In  the 
agreement,  the  employers  agreed  to  offer  30 000  additional  dual  training  places  every  year 
until 2006 and an additional 25 000 initial qualification places. The Pact has been extended to 
2010 and the employers’ associations agreed to create 60 000 additional training places each 
year and 40 000 initial qualification places per year. 

Aided by growing labour demand, the Pact has increased the number of dual training places 
(by nine percent in 2007) and helped integrate disadvantaged young people within the labour 
market. Two thirds of the young people who obtained initial qualifications found permanent 
training places. 

The  Pact  has  also  had  wider  implications,  as  the  employer’s  associations  have  encouraged 
more  companies  to  provide  dual  training  and  motivated  companies  to  extend  their  training. 
Strong  efforts  have  also  been  made  to  motivate  non-German  employers  in  Germany  to 
provide dual training. 

In France, GPEC (Prospective Management of Jobs and Skills — Gestion Prévisionnelle des 

123 

OREFs  were  established  by  the  State  and  Regional  Authorities  in  1993  while  OPMQs  were  set  up  in 
20004 and are closely linked to the training insurance funds (OPCA). 

EN 

63 

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Emplois  et  des  Competences)  is  both  a  legal  obligation  (through  the  2005  Social  Cohesion 
Act) and a tool for enterprise development. A GPEC is an agreement between social partners 
at  enterprise  level  to  anticipate  the  impact  of  external  and  internal  changes  and  take 
appropriate  action  to  minimise  their  effect  on  the  company.  Around  205  agreements  have 
been signed since the initiative was launched and forecasting is at the heart of these activities. 

Regional  Observatories  of  Employment  and  Training  (OREFs)  and  Sectoral  Observatories 
(OPMQs)  are  other  data  sources  utilised  by  French  employers  (and  social  partners)123.  The 
studies  carried  out  by  the  Observatories  help  sectoral  social  partners  to  decide  on 
employment and training policies. Small and medium-sized companies, which have no GPEC 
obligations, also make use of these studies in order to anticipate short- and medium-term skill 
needs and labour supply. 

Source: Eurydice responses  

European  employers,  together  with  the  unions,  have  developed  a  wide  range  of  strategies  to 
deal with sector-specific skill gaps and shortages. In the UK, the Skills for Business network 
aims to boost national productivity and profitability by identifying and tackling skills gaps and 
shortages  on  a  sector-by-sector  basis.  The  Skills  for  Business  network  comprises  25  Sector 
Skills  Councils  (SSCs)124,  which  are  employer-led,  independent  organisations  established  to 
improve  learning  supply,  including  via  apprenticeships,  higher  education  and  National 
Occupational Standards (NOS), for each of the sectors covered. The Canadian sector councils 
also  have  a  prospective  dimension,  since  they  try  to  find  solutions  to  future  challenges  by 
building  consensus  among  employers,  employees,  education  and  training  providers  and  other 
key  stakeholders  (see  Box  3.15).  Lately,  similar  sectoral  councils  have  been  piloted  in  the 
Czech  Republic  with  support  from  the  European  Social  Fund125.  They  are  country-level 
partnerships, with sector-oriented structures consisting of experts appointed by employers and 
their associations in close cooperation with the central administrative authorities. The councils 
are expected to have a considerable impact on the overall development and definition of jobs 
and  skills  in  the  Czech  Republic  in  the  future  and  in  helping  to  anticipate  the  need  for  new 
competences and skills. 

Particularly  in  the  UK,  educational  reforms  are  being  implemented  to  move  away  from  a 
government-led, centrally planned approach to a flexible system intrinsically responsive to the 
needs  of  employers  and  individuals.  However,  this  does  not  mean  that  there  is  no  need  to 
anticipate  the  future,  but  simply  that  this  should  be  done  by  many  actors,  not  just  central 
government.  

Box 3.15: The UK Leitch review: promoting a demand-led system 

In  June  2007  the  UK  Government  published  ‘World  Class  Skills’,  setting  out  how  the 
Government will create a world-class skills base by 2020. The document was endorsed by the 
Chancellor  of  the  Exchequer  and  the  Secretaries  of  State  for  Innovation,  Universities  and 
Skills;  Children,  Schools  and  Families;  Business  Enterprise  and  Regulatory  Reform;  and 
Work and Pensions. A central element in the new approach is to move to a demand-driven 

124 

125 

Further information on Sector Skills Councils and Sector Skills Agreements is given in Box 3.4 on the 
UK’s approach to anticipating skill needs. 
Eurydice response. 

EN 

64 

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skills  system,  in  which  the  provision  available  responds  to  the  needs  of  individuals  and  is 
delivered  through  a  market  system.  To  achieve  this,  the  Government  is,  for  example, 
directing  funding  increasingly  through  ‘demand-led’  routes,  for  example,  by  expanding  the 
Train to Gain initiative and developing Skills Accounts. 

The  Train  to  Gain  brokerage  system  is  the  fulcrum  of  the  UK’s  move  to  a  demand-driven 
skills  system.  It  was  set  up  to  ensure  that  training  responds  to  the  needs  of  employers  by 
allocating funding according to their market choices. 

Employers  can  contact  a  Train  to  Gain  broker,  who  puts  together  a  tailored  package  of 
support  to  meet  their  needs,  identifying  the  most  suitable  provision,  and  matching  it  with 
available Government funding. Providers then respond by developing training to meet market 
demand. The brokerage service was launched nationally in August 2006. Since then, 97 000 
employers have benefited, leading to 490 000 learner ‘starts’ with almost 213 000 employees 
gaining  a  Level  2  qualification  to  date.  Funding  for  Train  to  Gain  will  increase  from  £520 
million  in  2007-2008  to  over  £1  billion  by  2010-2011.  The  Government’s  plans  for 
expanding and developing the Train to Gain service were set out in Train to Gain: a Plan for 
Growth, published in January 2008. 

Authorities  are  also  working  to  make  it  easier  for  employers  to  have  their  own  training 
programmes  nationally  recognised  and  accredited.  More  than  30  employers  have  had  their 
training  accredited  and  a  further  four  employers,  including  Network  Rail  and  FlyBe,  have 
been  accredited  as  awarding  bodies  in  their  own  right.  Further  information  about  Sector 
Skills Councils and Sector Skills Agreements is found in Box 3.4 on the UK’s approach to 
anticipating skill needs.  

Source: Eurydice response 

Box 3.15: The Canadian Sector Councils 

Conscious of the need for cooperation on the part of all players in the labour market to improve 
its competitiveness and efficiency, the Canadian authorities have put in place Sector Councils 
covering  almost  thirty  sectors  or  cross-sectoral  groups  of  the  Canadian  economy.  Sector 
Councils  are  permanent,  consensus-building  organisations  comprising  business,  labour, 
education and other key stakeholder groups. Their objectives are to improve the quality of the 
Canadian labour force and to help firms to be more flexible in meeting changing competitive 
demands by:  

-  examining  current  and  projected  human  resource  challenges  (including  how  training  is 
viewed, developed and delivered to a diverse workforce);  

- identifying solutions, and 

-  coordinating  and  implementing  strategies,  from  the  development  of  occupational  standards 
and certification programmes to new career information products. 

Core activities to meet these objectives include developing national occupational standards and 
certification  programmes,  identifying  and  preparing  new  entrants  in  the  labour  market,  and 
improving career and occupational information. Sector Councils address a wide range of issues 
related to technological change, quality standards, planning, and human resource development. 

EN 

65 

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They do not expect to find a single approach to address all the potential issues for all sectors of 
the  economy  —  the  demands  are  far  too  varied.  Instead,  Canada’s  Sector  Councils  focus  on 
what  works  for  their  sector.  They  have  implemented  programmes  as  diverse  as  the  sectors 
themselves.  

3.2.3. 

Issues arising from the review of matching policies  

Identification of mismatches between labour supply and demand is important to policy makers 
as  they  can,  potentially,  be  very  costly  to  the  economy  by  restricting  productivity  growth 
(especially when they occur in key sectors of the economy). 

While  in  some  countries  the  results  of  forecasts  appear  to  be  more  widely  disseminated  and 
used (e.g. Finland, France, Ireland, Netherlands, UK), they appear to be under-utilised in some 
Member  States126.  In  brief,  this  overview  provides  examples  that  illustrate  the  direct 
contribution of anticipation results to policy. But there is scope for better utilising forecasting 
results.  

For forecasts to be of value, policy makers and other key stakeholders need accessible data that 
can be interpreted and applied to their current circumstances.  

4. 

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ReferNet  (2004-2007)  25  National  reports  on  Vocational  Education  and  Training  systems 
(0701 Mechanisms for the Anticipation of Skills Needs). 

Sloane,  Peter  J  (2003).  Much  aDo  About  Nothing:  What  Does  the  Over-education  Literature 
Really Tell Us? in: Büchel, Felix, A de Grip and A. Mertens (eds.). Overeducation in Europe. 
Current issues in theory and policy, Edward Elgar. 

Spitz-Oener,  Alexandra  (2006).  Technical  Change,  Job  Tasks  and  Rising  Educational 
Demands. Journal of Labor Economics 24 (2): pp. 235-270. 

TNO  -  SEOR  -  ZSI,  "Comprehensive  Analysis  of  Emerging  Competences  and  Economic 
Activities in the European chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products sectors", Lot 
4  of  Comprehensive  Analysis  of  Emerging  Competences  and  Economic  Activities  in  the 
European Union. 

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2008), ‘Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work 
in a Sustainable; Low-Carbon World’, report commissioned and funded by UNEP. 

Wilson R. A. (2008a). UK approaches to Skill Needs Analysis and Forecasting: Lessons for the 
Czech Republic, (Contribution to Key activity No 5: Proposal of a system for regular analyses 
and  forecasts  of  skills  needs  in  the  labour  market  and  its  use  by  employment  services  in  the 
Czech Republic), Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry. 

Wilson  R.  A.  (2008b),  ‘Using  the  European  LFS  to  anticipate  changing  skill  needs’,  paper 
presented  at  the  ISA-RC33  7th  International  Conference  in  Naples,  1-5  September  2008; 
Session Title: Comparative Analysis of European Microdata from Official Statistics. 

Wilson,  R.A.  (2007a)  Anticipating  Changing  Skill  Needs  in  Europe:  The  Case  for  a  Major 
Improvement  in  Capacity  (paper  prepared  in  support  of  the  Portuguese  Presidency).  Institute 
for  Employment  Research,  University  of  Warwick,  Coventry,  and  Institute  for  Employment 
Research, University of Warwick, Coventry.  

Wilson,  R.A.  (2007b)  ‘Trends  in  Employment  Creation  in  Europe’  in  Perspectives  On 
Employment and Social Policy Coordination in the European Union. Ministério do Trabalho e 
da Solidariedade Social, Lisbon. paper prepared for the Portuguese Presidency Conference on 
Employment In Europe — Prospects and Priorities, Lisbon, 8-9 October 2007.  

Wilson, R. A., I. Woolard and D. Lee (2004), ‘Developing a National Skills Forecasting Tool 
for  South  Africa’,  South  African  Department  of  Labour:  Pretoria.  (50  pages  plus  extensive 
Annexes) (see especially Annex B: Labour Market Projections: A Review of International Best 
Practice). 

Winterton, J. (2006) Social dialogue and vocational training in Europe: are we witnessing the 
emergence  of  a  European  model?,  Journal  of  European  Industrial  Training,  v.  30,  No  1,  pp. 
65-76. 

EN 

71 

   EN 

 
5. 

ANNEXES 

ANNEX 1 — Table 3.3: Forecasting activities in European countries — nature, purpose 
and scope 

COUNTRY   NATURE 

OF 

PURPOSE  

ACTIVITIES  

Austria 

Austria 

Quantitative 
model-based 
medium-term 
projections 
labour demand 

To  provide  a  basis  for 
measures  to  improve  the 
matching of labour market 
needs  and 
future  skill 
supply 

of 

and 

Micro-prognosis: 
employment 
unemployment 
outlook for Austria 
until 2011 

describe 

the 
To 
of 
development 
employment 
and 
unemployment in Austria 

(SPATIAL, 

SCOPE 
SECTORAL, 
OCCUPATIONAL, 
EDUCATIONAL 
LEVEL)  

National 
regional 
and 
forecasts of labour demand 
by  sector,  occupation  and 
skill levels 

National 
level, sectoral 

and 

regional 

Austria 

AMS 
barometer 

skills 

To  observe  skill  demands 
for individual occupations 
at micro level  

Regional level, all sectors  

Cyprus 

Employment 
for 
forecasts 
economy 
Cyprus 

the 
of 

and 

To  forecast  employment 
percentage 
levels 
changes  for  the  economy 
as  a  whole,  sectors  and 
occupations.  

Czech 
Republic 

Quantitative 
manpower 
requirement 
and 
(supply 
demand)  model  of 

To  forecast  future  skill 
early 
needs 
and 
identification 
skill 
shortages 

of 

sectoral 

and 
National 
forecasts. 
occupational 
Sectoral forecasts are made 
for 
areas 
three  broad 
(primary,  secondary  and 
tertiary),  then  for  17  main 
sectors  and  43  selected, 
finer, sectors. Occupational 
three 
categories 
broad  areas  (lower,  middle 
and  higher  occupations), 
with 
detailed 
information  on  10  main 
categories 
and  on  27 
selected occupations 

further 

cover 

National 
disaggregated 
educational 
occupational clusters  

by 
and 

forecast 
27 
32 

EN 

72 

   EN 

 
Denmark  

Denmark  

the  Czech  labour 
market  

Quantitative 
forecasts  of  flows 
through 
the 
educational 
system,  supply  of 
by 
labour 
education, 
and 
imbalances 
future 
labour 
the 
on 
market.  

Employment 
by 
forecasts 
educational levels  

Denmark  

Educational 
forecasts  

at 

Statistics 

The 
and 
the 
Analysis  Unit 
Ministry  of  Education 
produces  basic  statistical 
data  for  the  educational 
system  as  a  whole  and  a 
number  of  quantitative 
forecasts on education and 
the labour market.  

long-term 
Medium  and 
assessments 
quantitative 
of 
supply  and 
labour 
demand,  by  educational 
attainment 

The forecasts are intended 
to  feed  into  the  policy 
future 
about 
debate 
imbalances  on  the  labour 
market  and  the  relevant 
policies to be applied. 

National,  some 
forecasts.  Divided 
forms of education.  

regional 
by 

and 

National 
forecasts 
educational groups 

for 

regional 
main 

and 

National 
quantitative 
disaggregated 
educational attainment  

regional 
forecasts 
by 

Estonia 

Finland  

France  

Regular forecast of 
labour 
market 
needs 

To  predict  employment 
levels  as  well  as  the  need 
for additional labour 

sectoral 

and 
National, 
occupational 
(34  sectors 
and 5 occupational groups) 

Quantitative  long- 
and  medium-term 
forecasts 

To  predict  employment 
structure, 
vocational 
structure  and  education 
demands  up  to  2030.  The 
Ministry  of  Labour  is  to 
draft  a  long-term  forecast 
for 
and 
output 
employment  (PTS)  up  to 
2030 

and 

regional 
National 
(provincial) 
forecast. 
Sectoral dimension too (12 
main 
51 
sectors, 
subsectors).  Also  forecast 
/ 
an 
with 
vocational structure  

education 

Sectoral, spatial 

GPEC (Gestion 
Prévisionnelle des 
Emplois et des 
Competences — 
Prospective 
Management of 
Jobs and Skills)  

(through 

is  both  a 

legal 
GPEC 
obligation 
the 
2005  Social  Cohesion 
for 
Act)  and  a 
enterprise  development.  It 
involves  an  agreement 
social 
the 
between 
partners at enterprise level 

tool 

EN 

73 

   EN 

 
anticipate 

change 
to 
(internal  /  external).  The 
is 
main 
to 
purpose 
to  be 
determine  action 
taken  for  the  next  3  or  5 
years 

France  

‘Jobs in 2015’  

forecasts, 
Occupational 
taking into account supply 
and  demand  (creation  and 
replacement) 

National  forecast  with  an 
occupational 
(80 
focus 
occupational groups)  

France  

Forecasting 
job 
and  training  needs 
for 2015 

National sectoral forecast  

Analysis 
evaluate 
to 
recruitment  needs  linked 
to  each  degree  level  and 
whether  it  corresponds  to 
the  forecasts  provided  by 
the  Ministry  of  Education 
on  student  numbers.  The 
result  is  a  description  of 
the 
profile 
needed (in terms of sector 
and 
each 
economic field 

academic 

level) 

in 

Germany  

Germany 
127  

Germany 

the 
Forecast  of 
number  of  pupils 
and  school  leavers 
2005 – 2020  

Forecast 
of 
university  entrants, 
and 
students 
graduates  up 
to 
2020 

Long-term 
projection 
labour supply  

of 

Statistical  forecast  of  the 
number  of  pupils  and 
school leavers 

Number  of  pupils  and 
school  leavers  by  type  of 
school 
regions 
and 
(Länder) 

Statistical  forecast  of  the 
number  of  students  and 
university  graduates  up  to 
2020 

students 

Entrants, 
and 
graduates of universities by 
Länder,  nationality  and 
type of university 

Supply 

Projection  to  2050  with  a 
complementary 
behavioural 
study 
comparing  East  and  West 
Germany  

127 

The  information  provided  focuses  on  supply  forecasts.  Cedefop’s  Towards  European  skill  need  forecasting  (2007) 
finds that demand-side forecasts are linked to the supply-side forecasts presented in the table. 

EN 

74 

   EN 

 
                                                 
Ireland 

Ireland 

Italy 

Latvia  

To  forecast  employment 
by sector and occupation  

National,  regional,  sectoral 
and  occupational.  Level  of 
though 
varies, 
detail 
sectoral 
20 
typically 
categories, 
40 
occupational  groups  and  5 
broad educational levels.  

over 

To  provide  employment 
forecasts for the period up 
to 2020 

National, all sectors  

Analysis  and  forecasting 
of employment needs 

National 
forecast, 
occupational dimensions  

and 
sectoral 

regional 
and 

and 
Research 

FAS/ESRI 
(Economic 
Social 
Council) 
Manpower 
Forecasting 
Studies 
(12 
published  between 
1991 and 2007) 

Current  Trends  in 
Occupational 
Employment 
and 
Forecasts  for  2010 
2020 
and 
(published 
by 
ESRI in 2006) 

System 
National 
for  the  permanent 
observation 
of 
employment  needs 
(Sistema  nazionale 
per  l’osservazione 
permanente 
dei 
fabbisogni 
professionali). 

note 
Information 
estimates  of 
on 
labour 
force 
demand and supply 
the 
in 
match 
medium term 

estimate 

To 
labour 
demand  and  supply  in  the 
medium  term,  to  explore 
possible  problems  in  the 
to 
labour  market  and 
develop possible solutions 

National  

Lithuania 

market 
Labour 
by 
forecasts 
occupational group 

Lithuania 

Sectoral 
employment 
forecasts  

To  forecast  labour  market 
needs 

National, 
occupational 

regional 

and 

National, sectoral  

Assessment 
of 
employment  dynamics  in 
individual 
economic 
sectors  over  a  5-year 
horizon 

Lithuania 

Development  and 
of 
application 
(5-
medium-term 
forecasting 
year) 

Development  of  medium-
forecasting 
term 
for 
methodology 
skills/qualifications 

National  

EN 

75 

   EN 

 
for 
methodology 
skills/qualifications 
demand  on 
the 
labour market. 

demand  on 
market. 

the 

labour 

Netherlands   The  labour  market 
by  education  and 
occupation to 2012 
(periodic report) 

Current  and  future  labour 
market 
by 
sector  and 
occupation, 
education level 

situation 

104 types of education and 
127 occupational groups at 
regional  level  across  all 
economic sectors  

Netherlands  Employment, 

vacancy 
unemployment 
forecasts 

Current  and  future  labour 
market mismatches 

and 

Various 
occupations 

sectors 

and 

Norway  

market 
Labour 
projections to 2025 

Macroeconomic 
projections  for  the  supply 
and  demand  of  different 
types of labour 

National  forecast  covering 
20  sectors.  Focus  on  the 
gaps  between  supply  and 
demand  for  27  educational 
groups, 
19 
groups at university level  

including 

Poland 

Labour  Demand 
Forecasting 
System (SPPP) 

Poland 

Poland 

Romania 

the 
Forecast  of 
number 
of 
employed  persons 
and  job  offers  in 
the  province  of 
Masovia 

Forecast  of 
the 
of 
number 
employed  persons 
and  job  offers  in 
the  province  of 
Łódź 

Anticipating/ 
forecasting 
vocational 
education 
training needs  

and 

create 

/ 
system 
To 
supporting  database 
to 
generate  labour  demand 
forecasts 
(national  and 
regional)  by  qualification 
levels 

To  analyse  and  provide 
forecasts  for  the  labour 
market  in  the  province  of 
Masovia  

and 

National 
forecast, 
qualification levels  

regional 
different 

Regional 

To  analyse  and  provide 
forecasts  for  the  labour 
market  in  the  province  of 
Łódź  

Regional 

Regional 

and 

To  help  implement  the 
Regional 
Local 
Vocational  Education  and 
through 
Training  Plans 
skills 
forecasting 
of 
through 
demand 

and 

EN 

76 

   EN 

 
Romania 

Forecasting 
the 
demand  for  skills 
level 
at  national 
and  elaboration  of 
occupational 
profiles 
occupations 

for  150 

Slovenia  

Forecast 
economic trends 

of 

Sweden  

Trends 
forecasts  

and 

Sweden  

Education 
work 

and 

UK  

Working  Futures 
2004-2014 

multi-stakeholder 
cooperation  at  local  and 
regional level. 

the 

for 
skills 
level  and 
changes 

current 
To  map 
at 
demand 
to 
national 
highlight 
in 
occupation  profiles.  Also 
to  produce  a  method  to 
serve  as  a  methodological 
reference  for  the  future, 
thus  enabling  the  entire 
exercise  to  be  undertaken 
on a more regular basis  

To  provide  a  basis  for 
economic  policy  planning 
and 
of 
preparation 
national budgets  

To provide an overview of 
demographic 
developments 
and 
education 
and 
labour 
through 
trends 
market 
detailed  projections  of 
labour supply and demand 
and the mismatch between 
them 

of 

Assessment 
the 
mismatches 
potential 
between  the  supply  and 
demand  for  education  by 
educational groups 

projections 

To  provide  sectoral  and 
spatial 
of 
labour  market  needs  over 
ten-year  horizon  for 
a 
broad 
occupational 
categories. 

This is the main officially 
funded  set  of  projections, 
but  many  others 
are 
produced  at  both  national 

National and occupational 

National  

50  educational  categories, 
40 industry sectors; gender 
and age dimensions 

Not specified  

47 

and 

sectors, 

local 
67 
Learning 
Skills 
Council  areas,  plus  all 
counties, regions and home 
countries. The occupational 
analysis  covers  nine  broad 
as 
categories 
professional  occupations, 
sales  and  customer  service 
occupations, etc. 

such 

EN 

77 

   EN 

 
and sub-national level. 

Source: SYSDEM responses 

EN 

78 

   EN 

 
ANNEX 2 — Table 3.4: National surveys identified in the SYSDEM responses  

COUNTRY   ACTIVITY  

RESPONSIBLE 
INSTITUTION 

PURPOSE  

SUPPLY 
DEMAND 
ORIENTATION

/ 

SCOPE 
SECTORAL 
OCCUPATIONAL)  

(SPATIAL, 
OR 

Hungary 

Quarterly 
human 
management 

survey  of 
resource 

PES 

support 
To 
the 
operations  of 
PES  and  its  local 
offices 

Supply-demand 
orientation 

National 

Italy  

Excelsior Survey 

Short-term 
employment 
forecasting 

Demand 
orientation  

and 

Ministry  of  Labour 
and  Social  Affairs, 
the 
ISFOL, 
of 
Chambers 
Commerce 
Association 
(Unioncamere)  

National,  regional  and 
local 
(103  provinces). 
Also  disaggregated  by 
profession  and  sector, 
contractual  arrangement, 
education level, etc. 

Latvia 

Annual 
survey on LM trends 

employer 

PES 

Demand 

National 

skill 

identify 

To 
shortages, 
employer needs and 
to 
readiness 
be 
involved 
in  PES 
activities 

EN 

79 

EN 

 
  
Luxembourg Qualifications 

of 

tomorrow  

Business  Federation 
Luxembourg 
of 
(FEDIL), 
the 
Luxembourg 
Bankers’ 
Association  and  the 
Chamber 
of 
Commerce 

Malta 

Business 
Survey 

Perceptions 

Central  Bank 
Malta 

of 

Netherlands   Labour 

supply 

and 

demand panel  

Institute  of 
Studies (OSA) 

labour 

Not specified  

Supply 
demand  

and 

Information 
communication 
skills  needed 
industrial sector 

and 
needs; 
the 

in 

Employers’ 
business 
expectations, 
including their need 
for 
human 
resources,  for  the 
next quarter 

To 
and 
collect 
maintain  data  on 
the 
(potential) 
labour  force  in  the 
Netherlands 

Demand 
orientation  

National,  no  information 
provided  on  sectors  or 
occupations  

Supply 
demand  

and 

Survey  of  labour  supply 
Includes 
and  demand. 
questions  on  workforce 
education and training as 
well  as  the  demand  for 
skills  

All  sectors,  all  types  of 
work 

Netherlands   Nationale 

Enquête 
Arbeidsomstandigheden 
(National  Survey  of 
Working Conditions) 

TNO 
(research 
institute),  Statistics 
Netherlands  (CBS), 
Ministry  of  Social 
Affairs 
and 
Employment (SZW) 

This 
survey 
provides structured, 
periodic, 
and 
consistent  data  on 
the  composition  of 
employment, 

‘Snapshot’ 
of 
current  situation 
early 
— 
identification 
/ 
monitoring  of  the 
of 
composition 

EN 

80 

EN 

 
  
working  conditions 
and 
occupational 
risks  

employment, 
occupational 
problems 
(mismatches 
between 
and demand)  

supply 

Norway  

Enterprise Survey  

Norwegian  Labour 
and 
Welfare 
Organisation (NAV) 

of 

Survey 
recruitment 
problems 
and 
labour  needs  over 
the next year 

Labour demand   National 

survey 

of 
labour  market  needs  and 
recruitment  issues,  data 
presented at county level 
with  estimates  for  86 
occupations 

Sweden  

Labour 
tendency survey  

market 

Sweden, 

Statistics 
Statistika 
Centralbyrå (SCB) 

Demand 
orientation  

70 
and 
educational 
training  categories  of 
which 
are  HE 
56 
programmes  

the 

identify 

To 
recruitment 
situation,  the  share 
of  employers  with 
vacancies,  and  the 
demand  for  labour 
with  a  particular 
educational 
background 

Turkey 

Monthly 
survey 

labour  force 

Statistical 
(Turkstat) 

office 

To  produce  timely 
labour market data 

Supply 
demand 
orientation  

and 

National/regional (NUTS 
2) levels; all sectors 

EN 

81 

EN 

 
  
UK  

National 
Skills Survey (NESS)  

Employer 

Labour  demand 
orientation  

employers 
79 000 
interviewed  across  all 
sectors across public and 
private ownership. NESS 
only  concerns  England, 
though  similar  surveys 
are  being  conducted  in 
and 
Scotland,  Wales 
Northern Ireland  

by 
Commissioned 
the  Learning  & 
Council 
Skills 
the 
(LSC), 
Department 
for 
Innovation, 
Universities 
and 
Skills  (DIUS)  and 
the  Sector  Skills 
Development 
Agency — the actual 
survey  was  carried 
out  by  a  private-
sector company  

to 
is 
the  key 

Main  aim 
provide 
government 
involved 
agencies 
with 
and 
robust 
reliable information 
from  employers  on 
skills shortages and 
gaps and workforce 
development 
that 
can  be  used  as  a 
common  basis  for 
policy development 
the 
and  assessing 
skills 
impact  of 
initiatives  

EN 

82 

EN 

 
  
 
ANNEX 3 — Table 3.5: Other approaches — sectoral, regional and qualitative approaches identified in SYSDEM responses 

COUNTRY   ACTIVITY  

RESPONSIBLE 
INSTITUTION 

PURPOSE  

Austria 

Support  ProWienII  — 
Surveys  and  Delphi-
style methods 

Regional 
AMS 
consulting company 

(PES); 

To  provide  useful  sectoral  and  regional 
information on labour and skill demand  

Belgium 

Occupational profiles 

Social partners 

Belgium 

Analysis  of  hard-to-fill 
vacancies 
(‘knelpuntberoepen’) 

Public Employment Service (i.e. 
VDAB in Flanders, FOREM for 
the Walloon region) 

To develop occupational profiles for the whole 
economy  

Analysis and overview of the occupations with 
hard-to-fill vacancies 

Czech 
Republic 

Sectoral 
studies 

qualitative 

National  Training  Fund  — 
National 
of 
Employment  and  Training  and 
relevant consultancy companies 

Observatory 

To  provide  in-depth  insight  into  ongoing 
trends  in  individual  sectors  and  explore  the 
impact  of  skills-based  technologies  on  labour 
demand 

Denmark  

of 

on 

Study 
future 
the 
imbalances 
public  labour  market 
by 
the  Ministry  of 
Finance  

Ministry of Finance  

Due  to  the  rapid  expansion  of  the  Danish 
welfare state in the 1960s and 1970s, there is a 
remarkably  skewed  age  distribution  among 
public  employees.  This  poses  a  major 
challenge for recruitment in the coming years, 
when a large number of public employees will 
retire.  The  report  identified  the  most  severe 
problems among nurses and teachers  

EN 

83 

EN 

 
  
Denmark  

Project Kvalinord 

Kompetencecentre.dk 

labour.  The  project 

A  special  project  focusing  on  methods  to 
assess future regional imbalances for unskilled 
and  skilled 
included 
detailed  qualitative  and  quantitative  studies  of 
present  and  future  demand  for  competences 
within  a  number  of  sectors  (textile  industry, 
retail trade, etc.) in Northern Jutland 

Estonia 

Estonia 

on 
Sector 
studies 
the 
future  needs  of 
(e.g.: 
labour  market 
wood  and 
furniture; 
metal,  engineering  and 
appliances; 
and 
telecommunications) 

IT 

Ad-hoc 
on 
studies 
market needs 

regional 
labour 

Most  of  the  sector  studies  have 
been  commissioned  by  Innove 
—  The  Foundation  for  Lifelong 
Learning Development 

To  provide  some  additional  information  on 
labour  market  demand  in  specific  sectors  — 
the  studies  supplement  information  gathered 
through  regular  forecasts  of  labour  market 
needs (see above) 

Not specified 

To  provide  regional  assessments  of  labour 
market needs 

Estonia 

Graduates registered as 
unemployed  

Labour Market Board 

Finland  

Qualitative  long-  and 
medium-term forecasts 

Ministry  of  Education,  National 
labour 
Board  of  Education, 
market 
and 
organisations 
research institutes 

To  provide  systematic  information  about  the 
number of graduates registered as unemployed 
by school and field of study 

To  predict  developments  in  the  demand  for 
skills in working life 

EN 

84 

EN 

 
  
Finland  

Forecasting  provincial 
labour force demand 

Ministry of Employment and the 
Economy,  Employment 
and 
Economic 
Development 
Centres, companies and research 
institutes 

The  objective  of  the  forecast  in  each  labour 
force  area  and  business  centre  area  is  to 
recognise  as  early  as  possible  both  expanding 
and  contracting  sectors,  occupations,  skill 
demand,  technologies  and  also  changes  in 
production methods 

France  

Hungary 

Hungary 

Ireland 

Regional Observatories 
of  Employment  and 
Training  (OREFs)  and 
Sectoral  Observatories 
(OPMQs) 

OREFs  were  established  by  the 
state  and  regional  authorities  in 
1993,  while  OPMQs  have  been 
closely  linked  with  the  Branch 
Training 
Funds 
(OPCAs) since 2004 

Insurance 

Regional and Sectoral Observatories have been 
set up to develop forecasting studies through a 
comprehensive analysis of the field concerned 
(in  a  region  or  sector)  in  terms  of  skills  and 
jobs 

Collection 
requested 
unemployed 

of 
by 

jobs 
the 

PES 

Quarterly 
human 
management 

survey  of 
resource 

PES 

Future 
Requirement 
for  High-Level  Skills 
in the ICT Sector 

Expert  Group  on  Future  Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) 

Provision  of  data  to  employers  about  jobs 
demanded 

To support operations of the PES and its local 
offices 

The aim of the report is to determine the future 
requirement  for  high-level  ICT  skills  in  the 
ICT  sector  in  Ireland  and  identify  actions 
needed to ensure that the supply of these skills 
is  sufficient  —  in  terms  of  quantity,  quality 
and diversity  

EN 

85 

EN 

 
  
Ireland 

The  Future  Skills  and 
Research  Needs  of  the 
International  Financial 
Services Industry  

Expert  Group  on  Future  Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) 

Ireland 

Other 
studies 

sector-specific 

Expert  Group  on  Future  Skill 
Needs (EGFSN) 

Research  on 
plans 
school pupils 

of 

career 
final-year 

Hansabanka, PES 

To  outline  Ireland’s  current  and  future  skills 
requirements  in  relation  to  the  international 
financial  services  industry.  The  report  also 
identifies  the  need  to  enhance  provision  of 
these  skills  and  the  importance  of  improving 
Ireland’s  research  capacity  in  the  area  of 
financial services 

To  provide  an  assessment  of  skill  needs  in 
specific  sectors,  e.g.  medical  devices,  digital 
media, SME management 

To  gather  information  about  career  plans  of 
pupils  in  the  final  year  of  schooling,  identify 
the  most  popular  professions,  determine  the 
factors  affecting  career  choice, 
identify 
difficulties in choosing career, collect plans on 
working abroad  

Barometer 
employment 
opportunities 

of 

Lithuanian  Labour  Exchange 
(PES) 

Information  on 
unemployed and new entrants) 

labour  demand 

(for 

the 

Systematic  assessment 
of 
supply-demand 
matching  for  persons 
with  high-level  skills 
(master’s degree) 

Vilniaus 

VšĮ 
verslo 
konsultacinis  centras  (research 
and consultancy institution) 

To  analyse  the  capacity  of  highly  skilled 
persons to adapt to the needs of high-tech and 
innovative industries, taking into consideration 
Lithuanian and EU labour market trends 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Lithuania 

EN 

86 

EN 

 
  
Lithuania 

a 
Developing 
methodology 
for 
studies  of  the  demand 
and 
experts 
for 
implementing  a  pilot 
study 
high-tech 
areas 

in 

Luxembourg Qualifications 

of 

tomorrow  

Luxembourg Continuing 
professional 
development 
social sector  

in 

the 

Malta 

Scoping  Study  on  the 
Demand and Supply of 
ICT Skills in Malta 

National  Development  Institute 
(non-governmental 
non-profit 
public organisation) 

Developing  a  methodology  for  identifying  the 
demand for experts in Lithuania 

Federation 
(FEDIL), 

of 
Business 
the 
Luxembourg 
Bankers’ 
Luxembourg 
Association and the Chamber of 
Commerce 

‘Institut 
ESF-funded  project, 
universitaire 
international 
Luxembourg’ (IUIL), the ‘Unité 
de  Formation  et  d’Education 
Permanente’  (UFEP)  and  the 
Department  of  Labour  and 
Employment  

Ministry 
for 
Industry and IT and KPMG 

Investment, 

Qualitative  survey  to  identify  the  CPD  needs 
of  social  sector  employees  (disability  and 
carers)  

The  objective  of  this  study  is  to  increase  ICT 
awareness  within  the  local  scene  and  to 
explore  the  measures  to  be  implemented  in 
order  to  achieve  the  growth  that  this  sector  is 
capable of today and in the future 

Poland 

Forecasting 
of 
number 

the 
persons 

Institute  of  Labour  and  Social 
Studies, University of Łódź 

identify  changes 

To 
specialists 

in  demand  for  IT 

EN 

87 

EN 

 
  
 
Portugal 

Slovakia 

Slovakia 

Government  

employed 
industry 

in 

the  IT 

National Qualifications 
(Sistema 
System 
Nacional 
de 
Qualificações - SNQ) - 
regulatory 
the  new 
framework,  approved 
by  the  Government  in 
October 2007  

instruments. 

This system brings together vocational training 
taking  place  in  the  educational  system  and 
vocational  training  taking  place  in  the  labour 
market, providing them with shared objectives 
the 
It  aims 
and 
recognition  of  the  standards  for  vocational 
training in view of the needs of enterprises and 
economy,  as  well  as  to  ensure  the  fast  and 
permanent  up grading  of 
the  National 
Qualifications  Catalogue  (Catálogo  Nacional 
das  Qualificações–  CNQ)  and  its  diffusion 
through training promoters. 

to  ensure 

Ad  hoc  surveys  for 
anticipation/forecasting 
of skill needs  

Regions and large cities 

To forecast skill needs 

Ad  hoc  surveys  for 
anticipation/forecasting 
of skill needs  

Sectoral 
organisations 

employers 

To forecast skill needs 

EN 

88 

EN 

 
  
Spain 

INCUAL’s 
Professional 
Observatory 

Spanish  Qualifications  Institute 
(INCUAL), 
of 
Education,  Social  Policy  and 
Sports 

Ministry 

labour  market 

To  design,  elaborate  and  update  the  National 
Catalogue  of  Professional  Qualifications  and 
the National Catalogue of Vocational Training 
Modules.  The  Observatory  monitors  and 
analyses 
regarding 
qualifications  and  carries  out  research  on 
specific  sectors  of  the  economy,  focusing  on 
the current situation of the sector, forecasts of 
future trends in employment and qualifications 
and  the  education,  training  and  experience 
required for those qualifications 

trends 

Spain 

Education  and  training 
needs 
patterns 
and 
among  private-sector 
companies 
the 
Autonomous 
Community of Murcia 

in 

Sweden  

Business 
Survey 

Tendency 

Regional  Employment  Service 
of  the  Autonomous  Community 
of Murcia  

To  analyses  and  identify  current  needs  and 
future patterns in the domain of education and 
training 

The  National 
Economic 
(Konjukturinstitutet, NIER) 

Institute 

of 
Research 

The objective is to provide a quick qualitative 
indication of actual outcomes and expectations 
the 
regarding, 
employment  and  recruitment  situation,  labour 
market shortages, etc. 

among 

things, 

other 

EN 

89 

EN 

 
  
Turkey 

Turkish  Employment 
Inventory 

the 

The  Gazi  University  of  Ankara, 
jointly  with 
Public 
Employment  Service  (ISKUR), 
the 
to 
this  project 
proposed 
Scientific 
Technical 
and 
Research  Council  of  Turkey 
(TUBITAK) 

To produce an ‘inventory’ of ‘all’ existing jobs 
and  employer  demand  across  Turkey  so  that 
the  ‘local’  VET  system  could  produce  the 
‘required’  graduates  based  on  the  current 
demand of ‘local’ employers  

EN 

90 

EN 

 
  
 
ANNEX 4 — Table 3.6: Approaches to anticipating skill needs in European countries  

AT  The  system  is  well-developed  and  incorporates  several  elements:  qualification 
barometer  for  the  comprehensive  and  continuing  monitoring  of  skill  demand  with  an 
on-line  information  system,  macro-level  medium-term  forecasts,  accreditation  system 
for  universities  of  applied  sciences,  networking  of  researchers  in  public  employment 
services, and employer skills surveys. 

BE  The Public Employment Service (VDAB — Be NL) and FOREM (Be FR) conducts an 
annual  analysis  of  hard-to-fill  vacancies.  Research  conducted  by  social  partners  to 
identify occupational profiles started in 1997, though it is unclear whether this process 
continues or has been completed.  

BG  Evidence  of  some  forecasting  activities  conducted  by  the  National  Centre  for 
Professional Development on behalf of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policies. 

CY  Long-established system of macro-economic medium- to long-term forecasts by sector 
and  occupation,  complemented  by  short-term  forecasts  and  annual  surveys  of  skill 
needs among employers in collaboration with social partners 

CZ  The country has started actively developing a system for the anticipation of skill needs 
during  the  last  decade.  It  is  based  on  medium-term,  macro-level  quantitative 
forecasting  which  incorporates  some  qualitative  elements  of  sectoral  projections.  In 
parallel, qualitative sectoral surveys covering several selected sectors are now planned 
to  be  linked  to  a  more  permanent  system  of  sector  councils.  Although  there  is  no 
developed system as yet, a number of efforts at national, regional and sector levels aim 
for a more systematic approach.  

DE  Well-developed system based on mutual sharing of research activities and experiences 
by  networking  (FreQueNz).  The  system  includes  qualitative  research  into  sectors, 
branches, occupations, econometric forecasting and qualification standards research.  

DK  The  system  is  based  on  the  involvement  of  social  partners  in  funding  and  in  direct 
research collaboration, mostly at trade and local levels. Systematic anticipation of skill 
needs  at  national  level  is  not  very  pronounced.  Employment  and  education  forecasts 
conducted by the Economic Council of the Labour Movement and the Danish Institute 
of  Governmental  Research  are  feeding  into  the  policy  debate  on  future  imbalances 
between the supply and demand for labour.  

EE  The country has started actively developing a system for the anticipation of skill needs 
during  the  last  decade.  It  is  based  on  medium-term,  macro-level  quantitative 
forecasting  which  incorporates  some  qualitative  elements  of  sectoral  projections.  In 
parallel,  qualitative  sectoral  surveys  cover  several  selected  sectors.  Although  there  is 
no  developed  system  yet,  a  number  of  efforts  are  aiming  for  a  more  systematic 
approach.  

ES  Anticipation  of  skill  needs  through  work  on  the  development  and  updating  of 
vocational qualifications, sector studies, permanent observatory of occupations, and the 
network of observatories of the labour market 

EN 

91 

   EN 

 
FI 

The system is quite well-developed. Quantitative forecasting is a major building block 
of  the  system,  although  some  qualitative  elements  are  built  into  the  forecasts,  and 
qualitative  surveys  and  focus  groups  are  conducted  in  parallel.  Partnership  and 
cooperation  are  important  elements  of  the  system.  One  product  is  an  electronic 
information bank. 

FR  A  long-established  system  for  the  anticipation  of  skill  needs  based  on  macro-level 
medium-term forecasts, sectoral studies, regional surveys and employer skills surveys. 
Active involvement of social partners and regional actors. .  

GR  The  system  has  started  developing  only  recently.  It  is  based  on  local  partnerships, 
alumni  surveys  and  other  transition-to-work  type  of  research.  Some  econometric 
forecasting and other quantitative and qualitative surveys are under development. 

HR  New  forecasting  models  are  being  introduced  through  the  guidelines  for  human 
resource development and the Education Sector Development Plan 2005-2010. 

HU  Regular  short-term 

labour  market  projections  by  PES,  based  on  enterprise 
questionnaire  surveys,  recent  development  of  medium-  to  long-term  macro-level 
the  Human  Resources  Development  Operational 
forecasting  funded 
Programme,  although  the  future  of  this  initiative  is  uncertain  as  it  has  not  led  to  a 
preferred  forecasting  method.  No  systematic  anticipation  of  skill  needs  yet,  but  a 
number  of  efforts  to  incorporate  continuous  monitoring  of  skill  needs  into  the  VET 
system. 

through 

IE 

Fairly well-established system based on a combination of sector studies, general labour 
market  and  employment  trends  analysis,  and  medium-  to  long-term  employment 
demand forecasting by occupational categories 

IS   Occupational Councils are responsible for providing forecasts of skill needs, and work 
with  the  Ministry  of  Education,  Science  and  Culture  to  identify  and  develop  the 
proposed education and training response.  

IT 

The  system  is  based  on  sector  and  regional  studies,  hiring  surveys  and  short-  and 
medium-term  econometric  forecasting  by  sector  and  occupation.  The  country  is  now 
attempting  to  put  in  place  a  more  systematic  approach  to  permanent  skill  needs 
monitoring with a linked internet platform for data dissemination. 

LT  Anticipation  of  skill  needs  through  sector  studies  and  development  of  qualification 
standards and forecasts based on available statistical indicators and employer surveys. 
No  developed  system  of  skill  needs  anticipation  yet,  though  work  has  recently  been 
carried  out  on  the  development  and  application  of  medium-term  (5-year)  forecasting 
methodology  for  skills/qualifications  demand  on  the  labour  market,  with  reporting 
scheduled during 2008.  

LV  No developed system of skill needs anticipation yet. Many developments are planned, 
including a more systematic approach and research. Upcoming projects are in the ESF 
pipeline.  Estimates  of  labour  supply  and  demand,  based  on  three  development 
scenarios. 

EN 

92 

   EN 

 
LU  A  Permanent  Committee  of  Labour  and  Employment  has  been  established  by  the 
Ministry  of  Labour  and  met  for  the  first  time  in  June  2008.  The  Committee  is  to 
examine employment, unemployment, working conditions and the security / health of 
workers. Regular employer surveys conducted in the banking sector to anticipate short-
term skills requirements. . 

MT  Short-term labour demand forecasting based on an employer survey was conducted by 
the  Public  Employment  Service,  but  this  survey  has  been  discontinued.  A  scoping 
study on the demand and supply of IT skills was conducted in 2007, while the Central 
Bank of Malta conducts a regular business perception survey.  

NL  Very  well-developed  and  long-established  system  with  multi-source  funding  and 
strong  involvement  of  social  partners,  quantitative  and  qualitative  information,  very 
detailed  results  to  support  decision-making  as  well  as  to  provide  guidance  for 
individuals.  

NO   Statistics  Norway  produces  macroeconomic  labour  supply  and  demand  projections 
(current projections to 2025), while the Norwegian  Labour  and  Welfare Organisation 
conducts a short-term (annual) analysis of labour market needs. 

PL  The country has scaled down the interdepartmental efforts of the last decade to develop 
a  system  of  labour-market  skills  demand  forecasting.  Planning  to  develop  a  new 
system  is  in  place  as  well  as  efforts  to  establish  a  more  holistic  approach  to  achieve 
more  robust  and  reliable  results.  Poland  has  applied  an  interesting  method  for  the 
observation of trends and changes in skills demand in old Member States. 

PT  Sectoral analyses linked to the development of professional profiles and qualification 

standards 

RO  Two forecasts identified, though it is unclear whether these are ad hoc studies or work 
that  will  continue.  The  first  looks  at  supply  and  demand  in  seven  of  the  eight 
Development  Regions  (excluding  Bucharest  and  Ilfov).  The  second  forecast 
commissioned in 2005 is a national occupational forecast.  

SK  No developed system of skill needs anticipation yet. There is awareness of the need for 
such  system  as  well  as  planning  to  develop  it,  but  there  are  indications  of  a  lack  of 
available expertise. Promising development at sectoral and regional levels. 

SI  No developed system of skill needs anticipation yet, though SYSDEM data mention an 
annual medium-term forecast prepared by the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and 
Development.  Skill  needs  analysis  is  performed  for  the  development  of  occupational 
standards,  including  a  few  sectoral  analyses.  The  systematic  development  of  the 
anticipation  of  skill  needs  in  the  Podravje  region  is  promising,  with  suggestions  and 
attempts to disseminate the good practice to other territories.  

SE  Very  well-developed  and  long-established  system  with  several  complementary  long-, 
medium- and short-term forecasts, a system of sectoral studies, regular questionnaire-
based  skills  surveys  among  employers,  and  regular  regional  surveys  on  employment 
(past and planned) 

EN 

93 

   EN 

 
TR  The  Turkish  Statistical  Office  conducts  a  monthly  labour  force  survey  to  ascertain 
short-term  skill  needs.  The  public  employment  service  (PES)  collects  and  collates 
redundancy  data.  The  PES  has  plans  to  analyse  these  data  in  the  near  future.  A  joint 
project between the University of Ankara and the PES is developing a jobs inventory to 
examine employers’ skill needs: results are anticipated in the near future. 

UK  Very  well-developed  and  long-established  system  (although  still  under  further 

development and change) based on several pillars: 

- well-coordinated sectoral and regional research into skill needs identification through 
the  national  Sector  Skills  Development  Agency  and  a  network  of  25  Sector  Skills 
Councils; 

-  medium-  to  long-term  sophisticated  forecasting  to  provide  the  necessary  level  of 
detail at sectoral and regional level as well as implications for qualifications; 

- regular employer skills surveys at national and regional level. 

Source: CEDEFOP128, supplemented by SYSDEM (BE, BG, HR, LU, MT, NO, RO, TR) and 
Eurydice (IS) responses 

128 

CEDEFOP, Systems for anticipation of skill needs in the EU Member States (draft version), 2008. 

EN 

94 

   EN