Proposal for a Council Regulation temporarily suspending customs duties on imports of certain cereals for the 2007/08 marketing year
Date: 2007-11-26
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: cereals, import, marketing, suspension of customs duties, third country

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 26.11.2007 
COM(2007) 742 final 

2007/0261 (ACC) 

Proposal for a 

COUNCIL REGULATION 

temporarily suspending customs duties on imports of certain cereals for the 2007/08 
marketing year 

(presented by the Commission) 

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EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM 

1. 

CONTEXT OF THE PROPOSAL 

•  Grounds for and objectives of the proposal 

The  aim  of  this  proposal  is  to  respond  to  tensions  on  the  EU  cereals  market  by 
facilitating imports from third countries in order to promote supply. 

This  is  a  response  to  a  modest  European  harvest  coupled  with  high  prices  on  the 
world  and  Community  markets.  Although  current  protective  measures  for  cereals  at 
the  Community’s  external  borders  are  relatively  low,  import  duties  still  apply  to 
certain cereals which are key to EU market balance. 

•  Background 

1.1.  Trends on the world cereals market 

According  to  the  International  Grains  Council,  in  2007/08  world  consumption  of 
cereals (1 669 million tonnes) is likely, for the third year in a row, to exceed world 
production  (1 655  million  tonnes).  A  combination  of  unfavourable  summer  weather 
in the northern hemisphere and drought in Australia has reduced forecast world wheat 
production to 601 million tonnes, whilst world maize production is expected to reach 
a  record  766  million  tonnes  following  an  exceptional  harvest  in  the  United  States. 
World  demand  for  cereals  is  on  the  rise  structurally  owing  to  the  expanding 
production of biofuels and to rising living standards in the emerging economies (these 
are  reflected  in  increased  consumption  of  poultrymeat  and  pigmeat,  hence  boosting 
demand for cereals). As a result of rising world demand, at the end of 2007/08 world 
stocks  are  likely  to  be  at  their  lowest  level  since  1979/80.  Wheat  stocks  will  be  an 
estimated  107 million  tonnes,  including  25  million  tonnes  held  by  the  five  main 
exporting  countries,  compared  with  118  million  tonnes  and  38 million  tonnes 
respectively at the end of the 2006/07 marketing year. 

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World stocks at year-end: wheat

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

s
e
n
n
o
t

n
o

i
l
l
i

M

1994/1995

1995/1996

1996/1997

1997/1998

1998/1999

1999/2000

2000/2001

2001/2002

2002/2003

2003/2004

2004/2005

2005/2006

2006/2007

2007/2008

Others
5 leading exporters

Source: International Grains Council 

Falling  world  stocks  have  resulted  in  a  strong  upward  trend  in  wheat  listings  (for 
export)  since  the  start  of  2007/08,  with  increases  of  around  50%;  at  the  end  of 
September  2007  world  listings  reached  around  USD  360  per  tonne  fob.  Quite  apart 
from  the  impact  of  the  dismal  summer  weather  on  wheat  harvests  in  the  northern 
hemisphere, particularly on European yields and quality, the markets have also been 
bolstered by strong demand from importers seeking to cover their requirements while 
international  prices  continued  to  rise.  Despite  soaring  prices,  traditional  importers 
have been buying in advance for fear of subsequent price increases. Since the start of 
2007/08,  North  Africa,  the  Middle  East  and  India  have  made  substantial  purchases, 
largely  from  the  American  and  Russian  markets:  in  early  September,  US  export 
commitments  were  already  approaching  60%  of  the  USDA  export  forecast  for  the 
entire marketing year. 

Against the backdrop of substantial rises in wheat values and sustained strong export 
demand,  the  world  markets  in  feed  barley  have  also  taken  off.  At  the  end  of 
September 2007 export prices hit USD 314 per tonne fob in the Black Sea, a rise of 
around 30% on the start of the marketing year. 

Despite an upward revision of forecast US maize production, world prices for maize 
exports have also risen. At the end of September 2007 US listings had gained 20% on 
the start of the marketing year, at around USD 180 per tonne fob. In Argentina, Up 
River export listings had increased by 30% at the end of September 2007, at around 
USD 180 per tonne fob. The rates were boosted by continuing strong demand, while 
operators  were  raising  prices  following  a  sharp  rise  in  export  listings  from  Brazil, 
where the fob values exceeded the USD 200 per tonne barrier largely as a result of 
exports destined for the EU. 

1.2.  Situation on the EU cereals market 

At the start of 2007/08 stocks were 13 million tonnes below levels at the same time 
the  previous  year.  This  sizeable  reduction  is  the  result  of  a  combination  of  two 

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factors:  the  modest  cereals  harvest  in  2006/07  and  significant  withdrawals  from 
Community  intervention  stocks  during  that  year.  To  meet  the  needs  of  the  internal 
market,  over  8  million  tonnes  of  intervention  stocks  were  put  up  for  sale  in  the 
Community  in  2006/07  (3.1  million  tonnes  of  wheat,  3.4 million  tonnes  of  maize, 
1.4 million  tonnes  of  barley  and  around  395 000 tonnes  of  rye).  Community 
intervention  stocks  totalled  2.4  million  tonnes  at  the  start  of  the  2007/08  marketing 
year, largely made up of Hungarian maize. 

In 2007, frequent heavy rainfall led to a decline in the quality of small-grain cereals 
harvested in the western part of the European Union, particularly in France, Germany 
and  the  United  Kingdom.  In  central  and  eastern  Europe  (Romania,  Bulgaria  and 
Hungary),  recurrent  heat  waves  (soaring  temperatures  and  a  marked  absence  of 
rainfall)  reduced  growing  potential.  Only  the  Iberian  Peninsula  and  the  countries 
around the Baltic Sea experienced weather conditions favourable to cereals. Overall 
EU production is estimated at 258 million tonnes, a fall of 8 million tonnes or 3% on 
the already modest 2006/07 harvest. 

European production is declining when EU stocks are already low. As a result the EU 
will  need  more  imports  in  2007/08  than  in 2006/07.  Traditionally  a  net  exporter,  in 
2007/08 the EU has been a net importer, to the tune of 2.5 million tonnes1, while EU 
exports remain constant. 

European cereals markets have seen a spectacular upsurge in prices since the start of 
2007/08.  The  rise  has  been  substantial  both  in  nominal  terms  and  in  terms  of  the 
exceptionally  wide  gap  between  market  prices  and  intervention  prices  (EUR  101.3 
per  tonne).  There  are  tensions  on  the  small-grain  cereals  and  maize  markets,  as  a 
result  of  the  reduced  Community  stocks  of  common  wheat  and  maize,  poorer  than 
forecast  quality,  and  the  exhaustion  of  Community  intervention  stocks  (currently 
down to 0.5 million tonnes). 

1 

As at 10 October 2007. 

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Weekly prices for milling wheat (EUR per tonne) fob Rouen

285.6
Sept, 2007

300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

178.9

100.4

July

August

September

October

November December

January

February

March

April

May

June

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Since the start of the new marketing year on 2 July 2007, the price of milling wheat in 
Rouen has risen from EUR 179 per tonne to almost EUR 300 per tonne at the start of 
September 2007. In Germany bread-making wheat was selling at 70% higher than the 
previous  year  by  mid-August.  European  production  of  common  wheat  is  mainly 
centred 
the  United  Kingdom,  Poland  and  Romania. 
Traditionally, annual exports are around 12-14 million tonnes, chiefly to countries in 
North  Africa.  Annual  imports  are  around  5  million  tonnes,  including  1.5 million 
tonnes  of  high-quality  common  wheat  from  the  United  States.  The  remainder  is 
medium and low-quality wheat, mainly from the Black Sea countries. 

in  France,  Germany, 

Weekly prices for feed barley (EUR per tonne) fob Rouen

269.9
Sept, 2007

300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

175.5

105.7

July

August

September

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

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Market prices for feed barley have increased in the wake of rising wheat prices. On 
the  French  market,  feed  barley  has  more  than  doubled  over  the  summer  2006  rate, 
listing  at  up  to  EUR  270 per  tonne  in  Rouen  at  the  end  of  September  2007.  Barley 
production  is  centred  mainly  in  Germany,  France,  Spain,  the  United  Kingdom, 
Denmark  and  Poland.  Annual  exports  are  traditionally  around  6  million  tonnes, 
chiefly to Saudi Arabia, while annual imports are below 0.5 million tonnes. 

Weekly prices for maize (EUR per tonne) fob Bayonne

253.5
Sept, 2007

126,9
Sept, 2006

260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70

July

September October

November December

January

February

March

April

May

Maize Bayonne 2005/06

Maize Bayonne 2006/07

Maize Bayonne 2007/08

182.3
June 
2007

128.6
June 
2006

122.5

84.5

June

The  high  price  of  barley  has  triggered  a  rise  in  demand  for  maize  for  animal  feed. 
French  maize  prices  in  Bayonne  followed  the  same  trend,  rising  from  EUR 183 per 
tonne at the start of the new marketing year on 2 July 2007 to a peak of EUR 255 per 
tonne  in  mid-September  2007.  Maize  production  is  centred  mainly  in  France,  Italy, 
Hungary, Romania and Poland. Annual maize exports are traditionally low, at around 
0.5 million tonnes, while annual imports are around 3-4 million tonnes, chiefly from 
South America, Ukraine and, more recently, Serbia. 

•  Existing provisions in the area covered by the proposal 

The tariffs for cereals under the GATT are as follows: 

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Product 

Durum wheat 

Common wheat 

Rye 

Barley 

Oats 

Maize (except seeds and certain hybrids) 

Sorghum 

Buckwheat 

Millet 

Triticale 

Tariff 

EUR 148 per tonne 

EUR 95 per tonne 

EUR 93 per tonne 

EUR 93 per tonne 

EUR 89 per tonne 

EUR 94 per tonne 

EUR 94 per tonne 

EUR 37 per tonne 

EUR 56 per tonne 

EUR 93 per tonne 

The  EU  has  consolidated  the  duties  for  all  cereals  under  the  GATT.  Duties  are 
governed  by  the  rules  in  Headnote  6  of  EC  Schedule  CXL  to  the  GATT,  which 
originates  from  the  Blair  House  Agreement  with  the  United  States.  With  the 
exception  of  barley  and  medium  or  low  quality  common  wheat,  customs  duties  are 
fixed on the basis of world reference prices for clearly defined varieties of cereals. 

Import  duty  is  fixed  on  the  basis  of  the  difference  between  the  actual  Community 
increases,  multiplied  by  1.55,  and  a 
intervention  price, 
representative cif import price for cereals in Rotterdam. 

including  monthly 

The  resulting  duty  is  currently  EUR  0  per  tonne  for  durum  wheat,  high-quality 
common  wheat,  rye  and  sorghum.  Volatile  reference  prices  for  maize  on  the  US 
market led to sharp fluctuations in import duty for maize at the start of 2007/08, from 
a peak of EUR 16.21 per tonne to EUR 0 per tonne since 1 October 2007. 

Tariff quotas were introduced for imports of barley and of medium and low quality 
common wheat in 2002. Outside these quotas, a maximum duty of EUR 93 per tonne 
and EUR 95 per tonne respectively applies. 

An  annual  tariff  quota  of  2 989 240 tonnes  is  opened  for  medium  and  low  quality 
common wheat. This includes a specific quota of 572 000 tonnes for imports from the 
United States and a quota of 38 853 tonnes for imports from Canada. The remaining 
2 378 387 tonnes are opened on a quarterly basis for other third countries. The duties 
payable on imports subject to a quota are fixed at EUR 12 per tonne. 

The  following  table  shows  imports  under  the  three  subquotas  for  common  wheat 
since the start of 2007: 

Subquota I 

Subquota II 

Subquota III 

Quota (tonnes) 

Take-up in 2007 
(tonnes) 

Take-up (%) 

Remainder (tonnes) 

572 000 

191 378 

33,5 

380 622 

38 853 

38 800 

99,9 

53 

2 378 387 

900 390 

37,9 

1 477 997 

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For  barley,  an  annual  tariff  quota  of  306 215  tonnes  has  been  opened  at  a  duty  of 
EUR  16  per  tonne.  A  separate  quota  for  50 000  tonnes  of  brewing  barley  has  been 
opened at a duty of EUR 8 per tonne. 

The  following  table  shows  the  imports  carried  out  for  the  two  subquotas  for  barley 
since the start of 2007: 

Quota (tonnes) 

Take-up in 2007 

Take-up (%) 

Remainder (tonnes) 

Barley 

306 215 

103 708 

33,9 

202 507 

Brewing barley 

50 000 

0 

0 

50 000 

In  2006,  a  zero  duty  erga  omnes  quota  of  242 074  tonnes  of  maize  was  introduced 
following  the  accession  of  10  new  Member  States.  The  quota  opened  for  2007  was 
used in its entirety. 

Imported  maize  and  sorghum  destined  for  Spain  and  Portugal  have  been  subject  to 
reduced import duties since these two countries joined the EU. An agreement signed 
between the EU and the United States authorises the import of a certain quantity of 
maize and sorghum from third countries at a reduced duty (rebate) to compensate the 
United  States  for  the  loss  of  the  markets  in  the  Iberian  peninsula.  The  current 
agreement  covers  2  million  tonnes  of  maize  and  300 000 tonnes  of  sorghum  to  be 
imported into Spain on an annual basis. Those amounts are reduced by the volume of 
certain cereal substitutes (residues of starch manufacture, maize gluten feed and citrus 
pulp) imported into Spain during the same year. A tariff quota of 500 000 tonnes of 
maize  to  be  imported  into  Portugal  has  also  been  agreed  (duty  fixed  at  a  maximum 
EUR  50  per  tonne  to  guarantee  the  full  use  of  the  quota).  Due  to  the  low  level  of 
duties and the sustained pace of maize imports, no rebate has been awarded in 2007. 

•  Consistency with other Union policies and objectives 

Not applicable. 

2. 

CONSULTATION OF INTERESTED PARTIES AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 

•  Consultation of interested parties 

Not applicable. 

•  Collection and use of expertise 

Not applicable. 

•  Impact assessment 

Not applicable in view of the short-term nature of the measure. 

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3. 

LEGAL ELEMENTS OF THE PROPOSAL 

•  Summary of the proposed action 

The  aim  of  this  proposal  is  to  suspend  customs  duties  on  imports  of  certain  cereals 
both for tariff quotas at reduced duty and for imports at the normal rate. 

This  suspension  is  limited  to  the  2007/08  marketing  year  and  may  be  rescinded 
immediately if necessary. To this end, provision must be made for the Commission to 
take  appropriate  steps  to  reintroduce  customs  duties  immediately  should  the  market 
situation  so  warrant,  and  to  lay  down  the  criteria  whereby  this  situation  should  be 
considered as such in accordance with Article 25 of  Regulation (EC) No 1784/2003 
(Management Committee for Cereals). 

•  Legal basis 

Treaty establishing the European Community,  and in  particular Articles  26  and 133 
thereof. 

•  Subsidiarity principle 

The  proposal  concerns  an  area  that  falls  under  exclusive  Community  competence. 
The subsidiarity principle therefore does not apply. 

•  Proportionality principle 

Not applicable. 

•  Choice of instruments 

Proposed instrument: regulation. 
Other means would not have been appropriate for the following reasons: 
this is a temporary suspension of a provision of an existing regulation. 

4. 

BUDGETARY IMPLICATION 

It is estimated that the measure could involve a reduction in own resources of a net 
amount (once the Member States have withheld 25%) of around –EUR 2.9 million in 
the 2007 financial year and –EUR 17.6 million in the 2008 financial year. 

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2007/0261 (ACC) 

Proposal for a 

COUNCIL REGULATION 

temporarily suspending customs duties on imports of certain cereals for the 2007/08 
marketing year 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Community, and in particular Articles 
26 and 133(4) thereof, 

Having regard to the proposal from the Commission, 

Whereas: 

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

(4) 

Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1784/2003  of  29  September  2003  on  the  common 
organisation  of  the  market  in  cereals2  provides  for  protective  measures  against  the 
potential  negative  impact  of  imports,  with  the  aim  of  ensuring  stability  on  the 
Community market. 

For  the  most  part,  the  customs  duties  applicable  to  agricultural  products  under  the 
World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreements are laid down in the common customs 
tariff.  However,  for  some  cereals,  imports  carried  out  within  the  context  of  tariff 
quotas  resulting  from  international  agreements  concluded  in  accordance  with  the 
Treaty or from other acts of the Council are subject to specific duties. 

In view of the structural rise in world demand as a result of rising living standards in 
the  emerging  economies  and  the  increasing  production  of  biofuels,  at  the  end  of  the 
2007/08  marketing  year  world  cereals  stocks  will  be  in  decline  for  the  third 
consecutive  year  and  are  likely  to  hit  their  lowest  level  since  1979/80.  Against  this 
background,  world  cereals  listings  have  shown  a  marked  rise  since  the  start  of  the 
2007/08  marketing  year,  with  increases  of  around  50%  for  common  wheat,  30%  for 
barley and between 20% and 30% for maize. 

As  a  result  of  unfavourable  weather  conditions  in  most  Member  States,  estimated 
cereal  production  in  2007/08  is  258 million  tonnes,  8 million  tonnes  or  3%  down  on 
the already modest 2006/07 harvest. The decline in Community production relates to 
common wheat and maize in particular, but has repercussions on the cereals sector as a 
whole, making it difficult to ensure a balanced supply of the Community market. The 
imbalance concerns feed grain in particular, in view of the differences found across the 
regions of the Community in the quality and quantities of the cereals produced and the 

2 

OJ L 270, 21.10. 2003, p. 78. Regulation as last amended by Regulation (EC) No 735/2007 (OJ L 169, 
29.6.2007, p. 6). 

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ensuing  changes  in  operator  behaviour  as  regards  the  use  of  the  different  cereals 
available. The overall fall in production cannot, moreover, be compensated by the very 
localised rise in the production of barley, rye and oats. 

Community cereals markets have seen a spectacular upsurge in prices since the start of 
the 2007/08 marketing year. The rise has been substantial both in nominal terms and in 
terms  of  the  exceptionally  wide  gap  between  market  prices  and  intervention  prices. 
The situation is tense as regards small-grain cereals and maize. Since the start of the 
2007/08  marketing  year,  the  price  of  milling  wheat  in  Rouen  has  risen  from  EUR 
179 per tonne to almost EUR 300 per tonne at the start of September 2007 while the 
price of feed barley in Rouen has more than doubled over summer 2006 rates, reaching 
up  to  EUR  270  per  tonne  at  the  end  of  September  2007.  Brewing  barley  has  also 
witnessed  a  strong  increase,  reaching  almost  EUR  310  per  tonne  at  the  end  of 
September 2007. French maize prices in Bayonne followed the same trend, rising from 
EUR 183 per  tonne  at  the  start  of  the  new  marketing  year  to  a  peak  of  EUR 255 per 
tonne  in  mid-September  2007.  This  situation  is  the  result  of  reduced  Community 
common  wheat  and  maize  stocks,  average  quality  and  the  exhaustion  of  Community 
intervention stocks, currently down to below 500 000 tonnes. 

In  order  to  respond  to  this  situation  of  strong  tensions  on  the  markets,  supply  to  the 
Community market in cereals should be promoted, and to this end customs duties on 
imports of certain cereals should be suspended as regards both tariff quotas at reduced 
duty  and  imports  at  normal  rates.  However,  this  measure  should  be  limited  to  the 
2007/08 marketing year. 

It should, moreover, be possible to rescind this measure immediately in the  event of 
disruption or threatened disruption on the Community market. To this end, provision 
should be made for the Commission to take appropriate steps to reintroduce customs 
duties immediately should the market situation so warrant, and to lay down the criteria 
whereby this situation should be considered as such. 

These measures should be adopted in accordance with Council Decision 1999/468/EC 
of 28 June 1999 laying down the procedures for the exercise of implementing powers 
conferred on the Commission3, 

(5) 

(6) 

(7) 

(8) 

HAS ADOPTED THIS REGULATION: 

Article 1 

1. 

2. 

3 

The  application  of  customs  duties  on  imports  of  products  falling  within  CN  codes 
1001 90 99,  1001 10,  1002 00 00,  1003 00,  1005 90 00,  1007 00 90  and 1008  is 
hereby suspended until 30 June 2008, for all imports at the normal rate carried out in 
accordance with Article 9 of Regulation (EC) No 1784/2003 or within the context of 
tariff quotas at reduced duty opened in accordance with Article 12 of that Regulation. 

The  Commission  may  reintroduce  customs  duties  at  the  levels  and  under  the 
conditions  provided  for  in  Article  10  of  Regulation  (EC)  No 1784/2003  where,  for 

OJ  L  184,  17.7.1999,  p.  23.  Decision  as  amended  by  Decision  2006/512/EC  (OJ  L  200,  22.7.2006, 
p. 11). 

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one  or  more  of  the  products  referred  to  in  paragraph 1,  the  fob  export  price  for 
outside  the  Community  recorded  in  Community  ports  is  below  180%  of  the 
intervention price, or, for products for which there is no intervention price, 180% of 
EUR 101.3 per tonne. 

3. 

Where  necessary,  detailed  rules  for  the  implementation  of  this  Regulation  shall  be 
adopted in accordance with the procedure referred to in Article 25(2) of Regulation 
(EC) No 1784/2003. 

Article 2 

This Regulation shall enter into force on the seventh day following that of its publication in 
the Official Journal of the European Union. 

It shall apply to imports carried out on the basis of import licences issued from the day of its 
publication. 

This Regulation shall be binding in its entirety and directly applicable in all Member States. 

Done at Brussels,  

For the Council 
The President 

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FINANCIAL STATEMENT 

1. 

BUDGET HEADING: 
Chapter 10 – Agricultural duties 

APPROPRIATIONS: 
B 2007: 
EUR 1 486.7 million 
PDB 2008: 
EUR 1 683.2 million 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

TITLE OF MEASURE: 
Council  Regulation  temporarily  suspending  customs  duties  on  imports  of  certain  cereals  for  the 
2007/08 marketing year 

LEGAL BASIS:   
Articles 26 and 133 of the Treaty 

AIMS: 
To promote supply of the Community cereals market by facilitating imports from third countries. 

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS 

5.0  EXPENDITURE CHARGED TO 

– 
THE EC BUDGET 
(REFUNDS/INTERVENTIONS) 
– 
– 

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES 
OTHER 

5.1  REVENUE 

OWN RESOURCES OF THE EC 

– 
(LEVIES/CUSTOMS DUTIES) 
– 

NATIONAL 

12 MONTH 
PERIOD 

(EUR million) 

– 

– 

CURRENT 
FINANCIAL 
YEAR 
2007 
(EUR million) 

FOLLOWING 
FINANCIAL 
YEAR 
2008 
(EUR million) 

– 

– 

– 2.9 

– 17.6 

2009 

2010 

2011 

2012 

5.0.1  ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE 
5.1.1  ESTIMATED REVENUE 

5.2  METHOD OF CALCULATION: 

6.0  CAN THE PROJECT BE FINANCED FROM APPROPRIATIONS ENTERED IN 

THE RELEVANT CHAPTER OF THE CURRENT BUDGET? 

6.1  CAN THE PROJECT BE FINANCED BY TRANSFER BETWEEN CHAPTERS OF 

THE CURRENT BUDGET? 

6.2  WILL A SUPPLEMENTARY BUDGET BE NECESSARY? 

6.3  WILL APPROPRIATIONS NEED TO BE ENTERED IN FUTURE BUDGETS? 

YES NO 

YES NO 

YES NO 

YES NO 

REMARKS: 
On the revenue side, compared to the status quo, i.e. the situation if this proposal were not to be adopted, it is 
believed  that  the  measure  could  involve  a  reduction  in  own  resources  of  a  net  amount  (once  the  Member 
States have withheld 25%) of around –EUR 2.9 million in the 2007 financial year and –EUR 17.6 million in 
the 2008 financial year. 
There  will  be  no  impact  on  expenditure,  as  the  aim  is  to  remedy  a  shortfall  and  the  proposal  should  not, 
therefore, lead to intervention, despite the likely increase in availability of cereals on the internal market. 

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