Report from the Commission PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE COMMUNITY'S KYOTO TARGET (required under of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) {SEC(2005) 1642}
Date: 2005-12-15
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, cooperation policy, greenhouse effect, prevention of pollution, reduction of gas emissions, report

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 15.12.2005 
COM(2005) 655 final 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 

PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE COMMUNITY'S KYOTO TARGET 

(required under of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council 
concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for 
implementing the Kyoto Protocol) 

{SEC(2005) 1642} 

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Table of Contents 

1. 

2. 

2.1. 

2.2. 

2.3. 

3. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 3 

Attaining The Community’s Kyoto Target .................................................................. 3 

Actual emissions in 2003 for the EU-25 and the EU-15.............................................. 3 

Projected emissions in 2010 for the EU-25 and the EU-15 ......................................... 5 

Emissions by sector...................................................................................................... 6 

Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 8 

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This is the sixth annual progress report for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions 
and the second report under of Council  Decision  280/2004/EC  concerning  a  mechanism  for 
monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol 
(280/2004/EC).  This  report  is  based  on  the  detailed  European  Environment  Agency  (EEA) 
report “Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe” (EEA, 2005). It assesses 
the  actual  and  projected  progress  of  Member  States  and  the  Community  towards  fulfilling 
their  greenhouse  gas  emissions  commitments  under  the  United  Nations  Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.  

Although this report assesses the progress of the EU-25, developments in the EU-15 are often 
highlighted because of their collective target and the burden sharing agreement. Moreover, the 
quality of 2003 data,  especially their completeness and accuracy, varies across new and old 
Member States. The report1 also includes some emission data for the two acceding countries 
Bulgaria,  and  Romania  and  for  Croatia  which  is  a  candidate  country.  For  Turkey,  which  is 
also a candidate country, no data are available yet. 

This report analyses actual emissions data from 2003, together with projections of emissions 
assuming  scenarios  ‘with  existing  measures’2  and  ‘with  additional  measures’.  These 
projections  are  aggregated  Member  States  projections  that  will  be  analysed  in  depth  in  the 
future as not all Member States provided updated projections. The projections include the use 
of  flexible  mechanisms  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol,  i.e.,  Joint  Implementation,  the  Clean 
Development Mechanism and international emissions trading. 

The  projections  show  that  the  EU-15  will  reach  the  reduction  target  of  -8%  with  additional 
measures and with the use of flexible mechanisms. 

2. 

ATTAINING THE COMMUNITY’S KYOTO TARGET 

2.1. 

Actual emissions in 2003 for the EU-25 and the EU-15  

Greenhouse gas emissions from the EU-25 and the EU-15 both increased between 2002 and 
2003, though emissions were below emissions in the base year by 8% and 1.7% respectively 
(Figure  1)  alongside  a  27%  economic  growth  for  the  EU-15.  The  distance  above  the  linear 
target  path  for  the  EU-15  was  1.9%  in  2003  (Figure  2),  including  use  of  the  Kyoto 
Mechanisms  but  not  including  domestic  sinks  or  use  of  the  European  Emissions  Trading 
Scheme launched at a later date.  

1 

2 

Furthermore, Annex 1 lists the background data and Annex 4 contains a comprehensive list of CCPMs 
[SEC(2005) 1642] 
Existing  policies  and  measures  are  those  for  which  one  or  more  of  the  following  applies:(a)national 
legislation is in force;(b)one or more voluntary agreements have been established;(c)financial resources 
have  been  allocated;  (d)human  resources  have  been  mobilised;(e)an  official  government  decision  has 
been  made  and  there  is  a  clear  commitment  to  proceed  with  implementation.  Additional  (planned) 
policies  and  measures  are  options  under  discussion  with  a  realistic  chance  of  being  adopted  and 
implemented in future. 

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The EU emissions trading scheme launched on 1 January 2005 is the largest greenhouse gas 
trading  scheme  in  the  world  and  is  intended  to  work  alongside  effective  implementation  of 
existing and additional policies and measures to obtain the emission reductions required under 
the Kyoto protocol. 

Figure 1: Actual and projected emissions for EU-25 and EU-15 

110

105

100

95

EU-25 emissions

EU-25 existing measures

EU-25 additional
measures
EU-15 emissions

EU-15 existing measures

EU-15 additional
measures
EU-15 target (Kyoto)

EU-15 target + Kyoto
mechanisms
Business as usual

Linear target path

Kyoto mechanisms

i

0
0
1
=
s
n
o
s
s
m
e
r
a
e
y

i

e
s
a
b

90

0
9
9
1

5
9
9
1

0
0
0
2

5
0
0
2

0
1
0
2

Note: Data exclude emissions and removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry. The figure refers to a theoretical EU-25 base-year 
as 100 in order to allow a consistent analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and projections. It is 1990 for most Member States for CO2, 
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) but 1995 for fluorinated gases, with the following exceptions: The base year for CO2, CH4 and N2O 
for Hungary is the average of 1985-1987, for Slovenia 1986 and for Poland 1988; the base year for fluorinated gases is 1990 for France and 
Finland.This means that the value for 1990 is not exactly 100.Cyprus and Malta are not included due to lack of data and because they do not 
have targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The linear target path shows the theoretical linear decrease in GHG emissions up to the Kyoto target 
from the base year level until 2010, the mid-term year of the first commitment period. 

Source: EEA, 2005 

Members  States’  performance  varies.  Including  Kyoto  mechanisms,  thirteen  Member  States 
are on track to achieve their emissions reduction commitments as shown in Figure 2. Of these, 
France,  Germany,  Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom  are  the 
EU-15  Member  States  on  track  to  achieve  their  commitments  under  the  burden  sharing 
agreement (Council Decision 2002/358/EC). However, ten Member States are still above their 
target  paths:  Finland  and  Spain  by  more  than  20%;  Austria,  Denmark  and  Finland  even 
widened  the  gap  compared  to  2002.  Cyprus  and  Malta  are  Non-Annex  I  Parties  to  the 
UNFCCC and thus do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol. 

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Figure 2: Distance-to-target indicators in 2003 (in index points = percent) for the EU-25, 
including Kyoto mechanisms 

New MS
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Poland
Hungary
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Slovenia
EU15
Luxembourg
UK
Sweden
Germany
France
Netherlands
Belgium
Greece
Italy
Ireland
Denmark
Portugal
Austria
Finland
Spain

-61,0

-53,3

-45,6

-27,6

-28,2
-28,0

-23,0

-19,1

-8,6

-5,2
-5,0
-4,8

-1,9
-1,4

3,3

1,9

1,8

7,0

10,8

12,3

15,8

19,1
19,2

21,0

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Percent points below (-) or above (+) linear target path 

26,3

30

40

Note: Data exclude emissions and removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry. Distance to target in percentage points relative to 
base year emissions (the bars) show the deviations between a hypothetical target (in 2003) and what has actually been achieved (in 2003), on 
the assumption that reductions as a percentage of base year levels take place on a linear basis.It assumes that the Member States meet their 
target on the basis of domestic measures and also includes the use of Kyoto mechanisms.Sinks are not included.Cyprus and Malta are Non-
Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC and thus do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol. 

Source: EEA, 2005 

2.2. 

Projected emissions in 2010 for the EU-25 and the EU-15 

Aggregate  projections  for  the  EU-25  ‘with  existing  domestic  policies  and  measures’  show 
that total emissions of greenhouse gases will be 5% below 1990 levels in 2010 (Figure 1).The 
following  Member  States  expect  to  reach  their  Kyoto  targets  using  only  existing  domestic 
policies  and  measures  (Figure  3):  Czech  Republic,  Estonia,  Hungary,  Latvia,  Lithuania, 
Luxembourg,  Poland,  Slovakia,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom.  The  implementation  of 
additional  measures  is  projected  to  reduce  EU-25  greenhouse  gas  emissions  to  9%  below 
1990 levels by 2010. 

Aggregate EU-15 projections suggest that 2010 emissions could be reduced by  9.3%  below 
base  year  levels  when  savings  from  the  use  of  Kyoto  mechanisms  (2.5%  reduction)  and 
additional  domestic  policies  and  measures  (6.8%  reduction)  are  accounted  for,  sufficient  to 
reach the collective EU-15 Kyoto target (Figure 1).  

The  projected  use  of  Kyoto  mechanisms  by  nine  of  the  EU-15  countries  (Austria,  Belgium, 
Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain) amounts to 106.8 
Mt  CO2-equivalents  per  year  of  the  commitment  period  or  about  2.6%  compared  to  the  EU 
target of -8% (Figure 1). Nine countries have allocated financial resources for using the Kyoto 
mechanisms  (Austria,  Belgium,  Denmark,  Finland,  Germany,  Italy,  the  Netherlands,  Spain 
and  Sweden)  with  a  total  amount  of  about  EUR  2,730  million  for  the  whole  5-year 
commitment period. 

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the  use  of  Kyoto  mechanisms 

Considering  that  the  reduction  between  1990  and  2010  with  existing  measures  (~1.6% 
reduction)  will  be 
reduction)  and  with 
approximately4.1%,  the  additional  domestic  policies  and  measures  to  be  implemented  by 
Member States will have to, over the next 6 years, cover the 3.9% remaining gap in order for 
the EU-15 to reach their -8% Kyoto target. Those Member States that are above their targets 
should take additional policies and measures and use the Kyoto mechanisms in order to meet 
their targets.  

(2.5% 

Figure 3: Distance-to-target in 2010 (percentage points) for the EU-25, including Kyoto 
mechanisms 

EU-25

Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Luxembourg
Czech Republic
Slovakia
United Kingdom
Poland
Sweden
Hungary
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
France
Greece
Finland
Italy
Austria
Slovenia
Ireland
Denmark
Portugal
Spain

-49

-52

-43

-38

-40,6

-18

-17

-18,5

-12

-13

-3,5

0,9

0

0

-8

-6

-5

-3

0
0
0,1

1

0

-0,4

-2

-0,1

0

3

-5

5

9

10

8

6

12

13

13

13

14

19

15

25

26

- 60

- 50

- 40

- 10
Percentage points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) of respective emission target

+ 10

+ 20

- 20

- 30

0

+ 30

+ 40

With existing domestic measures 

With additional domestic measures

both including use of Kyoto mechanisms

Notes: Data exclude emissions and removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry. All EU-15 Member States provided projections 
assuming existing domestic policies and measures. Several countries provided projections with additional domestic policies and measures. 
For  following  Member  States  the  additional  effects  of  the  use  of  Kyoto  mechanisms  is  included:  Austria,  Belgium,  Denmark,  Finland, 
Ireland,  Italy,  Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands  and  Spain),.  For  EU-15  the  effect  of  use  of  Kyoto  mechanisms  is  calculated  based  on 
information from these nine countries. Projections for Poland cover only CO2 and N2O. Projections for Spain cover only CO2. Projections for 
Cyprus and Malta are not available.  

Source: EEA, 2005 

The legislative measures currently in force or already proposed by the Commission would – 
according to the ECCP estimates – result in potential emissions reductions of about 420-490 
million  tonnes  CO2-equivalents  in  2010  (10%-12%  of  base  year  emissions)  for  the  EU-15. 
These  estimates  assume  full  implementation  of  the  measures  by  Member  States  and  do  not 
include overlap between policies. The emissions reductions from these policies should start to 
be  apparent  with  the  inventory  data  for 2006,  which  will  be  published  in  2008.  Timely  and 
effective implementation by Member States of existing policies and policies in the planning 
stage will result in a very significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions from the Union. 

2.3. 

Emissions by sector 

As regards the emissions related to the main economic sectors, Figure 4 shows the changes 
since 1990 for the EU-15. Most greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union are from the 

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production  and  use  of  energy,  including  transport.Energy-related  emissions  in  the  EU-15 
increased  between  1990  and  2003,  largely  as  a  result  of  growing  transport  and  electricity 
demand.However, for both EU-15 and EU-25, the growth in GHG emissions in energy supply 
and  use  excluding  transport  is  becoming  decoupled  from  energy  demand,  with  emissions 
falling  despite  increases  in  demand.This  is  also  happening,  but  to  a  lesser  extent,  in  the 
transport  sector  in  the  EU-15.When  looking  at  the  country-by-country  statistics,  the  most 
striking result is that contrary to the general trend transport emissions in France and Germany 
have been declining - indeed for the fourth consecutive year in Germany. This would seem to 
reflect  the  combined  effects  of  improved  fuel  efficiency,  higher  fuel  prices  and  broader 
transport policies. 

Figure 4: Change in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1990 - 2003, sector 
projections with existing and with additional measures, 1990 - 2010, and share of sectors 
in 2003 

Agricult ure
10%

Wast e
2%

Industrial 
processes
6%

Transport
21%

2003

Solvents /  
Other
0%

Energy use 
excluding 
transport
61%

Energy excl. transport

-3%

Transport

24%

Indust rial processes

-19%

Agriculture

-10%

Wast e

-32%

Energy excl. transport

Transport

Indust rial processes

-3%

-4%

Agriculture

-13%

Wast e

-52%

Energy excl. transport

-9%

Transport

Indust rial processes

Agriculture

Wast e

-53%

-20%

-15%

31%

22%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Note: Several Member States did not report projections for all sectors/scenarios. Therefore, the information on projections 
has to be interpreted with care. For most Member States, the base year for F-gases is 1995, not 1990.This might change the 
data for industrial processes slightly but data for 1990 are not available for all Member States. 

Source: EEA, 2005 

The  growth  in  energy-related  emissions  was  offset  by  reductions  in  emissions  from  non-
energy related sources, such as waste, industrial processes and agriculture. Waste  emissions 
fell  as  the  waste  policies  resulted  in  less  solid  waste  disposal  on  land.  The  introduction  of 
abatement  techniques,  particularly  for  N2O,  helped  reduce  industrial  process  emissions  and 
agricultural emissions were lower as the cattle population decreased. 

In the EU-25, greenhouse gas emissions fell in allmost all sectors. The fall in the emissions in 
the  ten  new  member  states  was  to  a  considerable  extent  due  to  the  economic  restructuring. 
The exception is transport where emissions have increased since 1990. 

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3. 

CONCLUSIONS 

By 2003, EU-15 GHG emissions had decreased by 1.7% from the base year level and reached 
4180 million tonnes CO2-equivalents. This reduction is a little more than one fifth of the EC’s 
Kyoto target. Without Kyoto mechanisms, the distance to the target has doubled from 2002, to 
3.5  index  points.  Including  Kyoto  mechanisms,  total  GHG  emissions  were  still  1.9  index 
points  above  the  linear  target  path  in  2003.  The  projections  show  that  the  EU-15  will  meet 
their  Kyoto  Protocol  emission  reduction  commitment  of  -8%  when  additional  measures  are 
implemented along with the use of flexible mechanisms. Those Member States that are above 
their targets urgently need to take additional measures and use the Kyoto flexible mechanisms 
in order to ensure that they will meet their Kyoto target.  

The EU is also determined to take further action. The second phase of the European Climate 
Change Programme (ECCP) started in 2005. The Commission plans to  review progress and 
explore new actions to exploit cost effective emission reduction options. ECCP II will include 
carbon capture and storage, emissions from road vehicles, aviation and strategies to adapt to 
the  effects  of  climate  change.  The  role  of  the  EU  in  reducing  vulnerability  and  promoting 
adaptation will also be explored. In addition, further policy initiatives in the field of energy 
efficiency and renewable energy are foreseen. 

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