Report from the Commission - “Catching up with the Community’s Kyoto target” (under Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol)
Date: 2004-12-20
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, EU environmental policy, accession to the European Union, environmental monitoring, environmental statistics, reduction of gas emissions

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 20.12.2004 
COM(2004) 818 final 

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION 

“CATCHING UP WITH THE COMMUNITY’S KYOTO TARGET” 

(under Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a 
mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the 
Kyoto Protocol) 

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This is the fifth progress report for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and the 
first report under Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  and  for  implementing  the  Kyoto  Protocol  (280/2004/EC).  It 
assesses  the  actual  and  projected  progress  of  Member  States  and  the  Community  towards 
fulfilling their greenhouse gas emissions commitments under the United Nations Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.  

This report is based on the detailed European Environment Agency (EEA) Technical Report 
Analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe (EEA, 2004)1. 

After  accession  of  the  new  Member  States,  this  year’s  report  contains  for  the  first  time 
emissions data from 25 Member States. All Member States have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, 
23 have emissions reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, the Community is 
a  Party  to  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  The  Community  target  includes  only  the  EU-15  Member 
States.  For  the  EU-15  burden  sharing  was  agreed  in  Council  Decision  2002/358/EC  in 
accordance with Article 4 of the Kyoto Protocol. This agreement assigns a specific reduction 
target  to  each  of  the  15  Member  State  (cf.  EEA  2004,  Chapter  2.1,  Figure  1).  Most  new 
Member States have committed themselves to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 8 
%  from  base  year  level  in  the  first  commitment  period  2008–2012  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol. 
Hungary  and  Poland  intend  to  reduce  their  emissions  by  6  %.  Cyprus  and  Malta  are  Non-
Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC and thus do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol. 

Although  this  report  assesses  the  progress  of  the  EU-25,  many  parts  highlight  in  particular 
developments  in  the  EU-15  because  of  their  collective  target  and  the  burden  sharing 
agreement. Moreover, the quality of 2002 data, especially their completeness and accuracy, is 
not even across new and old Member States.  

The  report  also  includes  some  emission  data  for  the  three  candidate  countries  Bulgaria, 
Croatia and Romania. For Turkey, no data are available yet. 

This  report  analyses  actual  emissions  data  from  2002,  together  with  projections  of  data 
assuming  scenarios  ‘with  existing  measures’  and  ‘with  additional  measures’.  This  year’s 
report includes more detailed information on the use of flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto 
Protocol,  i.e.  Joint  Implementation  (JI),  the  Clean  Development  Mechanism  (CDM)  and 
international  emissions  trading.  Furthermore,  some  data  on  LULUCF  are  reported.  Finally, 
progress on the implementation of the common and coordinated policies and measures will be 
assessed. 

2. 

CATCHING UP WITH THE COMMUNITY’S KYOTO TARGET 

In 2002, the greenhouse gas emissions of the 25 Member States (EU-25)2 decreased slightly 
compared  to  2001.  However,  compared  to  the  base  year3  they  were  estimated  to  be  9.0  % 
lower.  

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Furthermore,  Annex  1  gives  a  more  detailed  analysis  on  actual  and  projected  progress  and  on  the 
Common and Coordinated Policies and Measures and Annex 2 lists the background data and CCPM for 
this report. 

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After two consecutive years of increase, the greenhouse gas emissions of the EU-15 Member 
States have declined slightly compared to 2001. As shown in Figure 1, emissions were 0.5 % 
lower in 2002 compared to 2001 thus reaching 2.9% below base year emissions. The distance 
above  the  linear  Kyoto  target  path  was  reduced  by  0.2 %  to  1.9 %.  In  order  to  achieve  the 
further  reductions  necessary  for  reaching  the  Kyoto  target  effective  implementation  of 
existing and additional policies and measures is required. 

Aggregate projections for the EU-25 ‘with existing domestic policies and measures’ show that 
the  following  Member  States  expect  to  reach  their  Kyoto  targets:  Czech  Republic,  Estonia, 
Hungary,  Latvia,  Lithuania,  Poland,  Slovakia,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Similarly, 
aggregate  EU-15  projections  suggest  that  ‘with  additional  policies  and  measures’,  the 
projected use of the Kyoto mechanisms will be sufficient to reach the collective EU-15 Kyoto 
target (Figure 1). 

Figure 1:  EU-greenhouse gas emissions until
         2002 and projections until 2010

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110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90

1990

1995

2005

2010

2000

Year

Business as usual

with current
policies

with additional
policies

Kyoto target path

Kyoto mechanisms

However, it should be noted that the ‘with existing measures’ and ‘with additional policies’ 
projections do not yet include some important measures that will soon start to deliver, like for 
instance  the  EU  Emissions  Trading  Scheme  which  will  take  effect  on  1 January  2005. 
Similarly,  projections  do  not  yet  include  emissions  and  removals  from  land  use,  land  use 
change and forestry (LULUCF). 

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The figure for EU-25 is an estimate for all 25 Member States but based on the emission data of only 24 
Member States because data for Cyprus were not available at the time. 
1990  is  the  base  year  for  most  Member  States  for  CO2,  methane  (CH4)  and  nitrous  oxide  (N2O)  but 
1995 for fluorinated gases. The base year for CO2, CH4 and N2O for Hungary is the average of 1985-
1987, for Slovenia 1986 and for Poland 1988; the base year for fluorinated gases is 1990 for France and 
Finland  

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At Community level, significant progress has been made over the past year with the adoption 
and  implementation  of  a  number  of  key  common  and  coordinated  policies  and  measures 
arising from the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP), such as the Directive linking 
project-based  mechanisms  to  greenhouse  gas  emissions  trading,  the  Council  Decision  for 
monitoring  Community  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  the  Directive  on  the  promotion  of  co-
generation, the proposal for a regulation on fluorinated gases, the  proposal  for a  framework 
directive  on  eco-efficiency  requirements  for  energy-using  products,  and  the  proposal  for  a 
Directive  on  energy  end-use  efficiency  and  energy  services,  and  the  assessment  of  the 
National Allocation Plans (NAP) under the Emissions Trading Scheme. 

All the measures the Commission committed itself to proposing in the period 2002-2003 have 
now  been  put  forward,  with  the  exception  of  a  comprehensive  framework  on  infrastructure 
use and charging in the transport sector and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control 
(IPPC)  reference  document  on  generic  energy  efficiency  techniques.  Many  of  the  proposals 
have already been adopted by the EU institutions.  

The legislative measures currently in force or already proposed by the Commission would – 
according to the ex ante ECCP estimates – result in potential emissions reductions of about 
350-430  million  tonnes  CO2-equivalent  in  the  EU-15,  an  amount  equivalent  to  the  “-8%” 
reduction.  The  emissions  reductions from these measures are expected to kick in within the 
next two years, but this will only be reflected in the 2006 emission inventory, which will be 
published in the 2008 monitoring report. Most policies and measures still need to prove their 
effectiveness  in  the  field  and  require  careful  and  swift  implementation  at  national  level,  as 
well as appropriate monitoring and review. 

Still,  performance  among  Members  States  remains  variable.  Eleven  Member  States  are  on 
track to achieve their emissions reduction commitments as shown in Figure 2.  

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Figure 2: Distance-to-target indicators (in index points = percent) for EU-25 

-58,3

-55,4

-50,4

-28,7

-27,4

-23,4

-20,9

EU-15

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Poland

Hungary

Slovakia

Czech Republic

United Kingdom

Germany

Sweden

France

Luxembourg

Slovenia

Netherlands

Belgium

Finland

Greece

Denmark

Italy

Austria

Ireland

Portugal

Spain

1,9
1,4

-7,4

-6,3

-6,1

-1,9

-1,4

1,7

3,5

4,2

6,6

6,8

11,5

11,8

12,9

8,6

10,9

16,3

17,0

21,1

24,8

30,4

- 70

- 60

- 50

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

+ 10

+ 20

+ 30

+ 40

Percentage points below (-) or above (+) linear target path

DTI 2002

DTI 2002 with use of Kyoto mechanisms

Note: Distance to target in percentage points relative to base year emissions (the bars) show the deviations between a hypothetical target (in 
2002) and what has actually been achieved (in 2002), on the assumption that reductions as a percentage of base year levels take place on a 
linear basis. It assumes that the Member States meet their target entirely on the basis of domestic measures and does not therefore include the 
use of Kyoto mechanisms or sinks allowed for under the Kyoto Protocol. Cyprus and Malta are Non-Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC and 
thus do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol. 

Source: EEA, 2004 

Of these, France, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom are the EU-15 Member States 
on track to achieve their commitments under the burden sharing agreement (Council Decision 
2002/358/EC). However, 12 Member States are still above their target paths: Ireland, Portugal 
and Spain by more than 20 %. For five Member States, the gap has even widened, for three 
(Finland, Portugal and Spain) by more than 1 % compared to 2001. 

As  regards  the  emissions  of  the  main  economic  sectors,  Figure  3  shows  the  changes  since 
1990  for  the  EU-15.  When  looking  at  the  country-by-country  statistics,  the  most  striking 
result  is  that  contrary  to  the  general  trend  transport  emissions  in  the  United  Kingdom  and 
Germany have been declining - indeed for the third consecutive year in Germany. This would 
seem  to  reflect  the  combined  effects  of  improved  fuel  efficiency,  higher  fuel  prices  and 
broader transport policies. 

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Change in EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1990 - 2002, sector 

Figure 3: 
projections with existing and with additional measures, 1990 - 2010, and share of sectors 
in 20024 

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Energy excl. transport

-5%

Transport

22%

Industrial processes

-22%

Agriculture

-9%

Waste

-27%

Energy excl. transport

Transport

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste

☺

-3%

-9%

-13%

Energy excl. transport

-54%

-11%

34%

(cid:47)

Agriculture
10%

Waste
2%

Other
0%

2002

Industrial 
processes
6%

Transport
21%

Energy use 
excluding 
transport
61%

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Transport

22%

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Industrial processes

-28%

Agriculture

Waste

-58%

-15%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

4 

For most Member States, the base year for F-gases is 1995, not 1990. This might change the data for 
industrial processes slightly but data for 1990 are not available for all Member States. 

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