WRITTEN QUESTION E-4028/03 by Juan Naranjo Escobar (PPE-DE) to the Commission. The euro and public opinion.
Date: 2004-01-12
Institutions: European Parliament, Provisional data
Subjects: euro, opinion poll, public opinion, stability pact

3.4.2004

EN

Official Journal of the European Union

C 84 E/133

(2004/C 84 E/0170)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-4026/03

by Nicholas Clegg (ELDR) to the Commission

(9 January 2004)

Subject: Precious Metals Directive

Given the Council of Minister’s failure to reach agreement on the Precious Metals Directive during the
Italian Presidency, will the European Commission withdraw its proposal on Articles made of precious
metal (1)? If not, why not?

(1) COM(1993) 0322, OJ C 318, 25.11.1993, p. 5.

Answer given by Mr Liikanen on behalf of the Commission

(11 February 2004)

The Committee of Permanent Representatives on 19 November 2003 did not consider the subject ready
for discussion in the Council of Ministers.

As there continue to be divergent views on the proposal for the directive in Council, the Commission will
consider its position and duly inform the Honourable Member on its further course of action.

(2004/C 84 E/0171)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-4028/03

by Juan Naranjo Escobar (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(12 January 2004)

Subject: The euro and public opinion

January 2004 will see the second anniversary of the introduction of the euro.

According to the latest Eurobarometer poll, published on 15 December 2003, 59 % of EU citizens and
67 % of citizens of the eurozone countries think the single currency is a good thing. These figures show a
fall of 7 and 8 percentage points respectively if compared to those for the first half of 2003.

Does the Commission believe the economic downturn in some of the eurozone Member States could be
influencing their citizens’ views on the pros and cons of the single currency?

Does the Commission expect this negative trend of public opinion to worsen? What measures does it
intend to take on the matter?

Does the Commission believe that Ecofin’s decisions of 25 November 2003 concerning the stability pact
could affect the euro’s credibility?

Answer given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(12 February 2004)

The Eurobarometer figures (Standard Eurobarometer 60 published on 15 December 2003)
the
Honourable Member refers to indeed indicate that support for the euro has declined to 67 % in the euro
area and 59 % in the EU as a whole. On logical grounds, one would expect that the economic situation in
the euro area has an impact on the public perception of the euro and the benefits of monetary union as
such. At the same time, many other elements play a role. For example, support for the euro stood at its
highest in the period between spring 2002 and spring 2003 (see page 9 of the survey), a period
characterised by relatively low growth. A broader analysis over the period 1998-2003, moreover, shows

that

C 84 E/134

Official Journal of the European Union

EN

3.4.2004

that support for the euro remains traditionally rather stable and fluctuates between 60 % and 75 % both in
the euro area and the EU as a whole. It would, therefore, be premature to draw clear conclusions from the
declining support registered in autumn 2003.

The survey that the Honourable Member refers to was conducted between 1 October and 7 November
2003. Therefore, the public debate about the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) preceding the decision taken
at the Ecofin Council of 25 November 2003 could indeed have influenced the results published on
15 December 2003. The results of the Flash Eurobarometer 153 (also published on 15 December 2003)
concerning the SGP, point to a possible link between the debate on the Pact and the perception of the
euro, since a clear majority (71 %) of the euro-area citizens agree with the statement that the SGP is a
useful instrument and that, thanks to that, the euro is a stable and strong currency.

The Commission continues to believe that sound public finances and fiscal discipline in line with the
requirements of the EC Treaty and the SGP are essential. The Commission will, therefore, continue to
exercise fully its role in budgetary surveillance in the framework of the SGP. But the 25 November 2003
events also show that it is time to take a further step forward. The Commission is preparing a new
initiative to enhance the framework for economic governance in the Union.
Improvements in the
implementation of the SGP will form part of this initiative.

(2004/C 84 E/0172)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-4029/03

by Juan Naranjo Escobar (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(12 January 2004)

Subject: Euro-dollar exchange rate

The rise of the euro against the dollar is reaching levels which threaten the recent timid resumption of
economic growth in the EU. The 6 % fall in German exports registered from September to October 2003 is
seen by analysts as a clear consequence of the euro’s appreciation.

Some experts think the ECB may be obliged to reduce its rates if the European currency goes on rising.
The Commission,
in its autumn forecasts, had to scale back its growth forecast for the Community
economy, to 0,8 % for 2003 and 2 % for 2004.

Does the Commission believe the euro will continue to appreciate over the coming months? Does it
believe that a level exists for the euro-dollar exchange rate which would reflect the real bases of both EU
and US economies? Are the Commission’s most recent economic growth forecasts for the next two years
still valid?

Answer given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(11 February 2004)

The Commission believes that a stable exchange rate is in Europe’s interest. The Commission also shares
the concerns of the euro-area Finance Ministers and the President of the ECB concerning excessive
exchange rate movements (as expressed in the Eurogroup statement of 19 January 2004).

The euro has undergone an appreciation of around 25 per cent against the dollar since the start of 2003.
However, the euro-area real effective exchange rate (cid:1) which is what matters for competitiveness (cid:1) has
only appreciated by around 8 per cent since then (when deflated by nominal unit labour costs). The real
effective exchange rate is based on the evolution of the euro against a basket of currencies, weighted
according to their importance in the external trade of the euro area. It also takes into account differences
in inflation rates.

Both survey data and hard indicators confirm that the Commission services Autumn 2003 forecast is still
on track. Indeed, the euro-area real effective exchange rate has only appreciated by around 4½ per cent
since the forecast was published. It is also worth noting that the latest available (January 2004) private-
sector Consensus forecast for GDP growth in the euro area in 2004 is the same as that given in the
Commission Services forecast (cid:1) 1,8 %.