Early identification of skill needs in Europe.
Date: 2003-04-18
Institutions: Cedefop
Subjects: EU Member State, EU policy, continuing education, cooperation policy, economic sector, education policy, employment policy, exchange of information, professional qualifications, vocational training

ederal  Ministry 

of  Education 
and Research 

EN 

Early identification  of  skill 
needs  in  Europe 

Susanne  Liane  Schmidt, 
Klaus Schömann, 
Manfred Tessaring  (eds.) 

Cedefop  Reference series; 40 
Luxembourg: Office for Official  Publications of the European Communities, 2003 

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Office  for  Official  Publications  of the  European  Communities,  2003 

ISBN  92-896-0202-3 
ISSN  1680-7089 

©European  Centre  for  the  Development  of  Vocational  Training,  2003 
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Vocational Training  (Cedefop)  is the European  Union's 
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We provide  information on and analyses 
of vocational  education  and training systems, 
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Edited by: Cedefop 
Manfred Tessaring, Project manager 

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Stavros  Stavrou, Deputy Director 

Table of contents 

Susanne Liane Schmidt, Klaus Schömann, Manfred Tessaring 
Introduction. Early recognition of skill needs in Europe 3 

Manfred Kremer 
Welcome and opening of the European conference 
'Early recognition of skill requirements in Europe', 
30 May 2002, Social Science Research Center Berlin 

Stavros Stavrou 
Early recognition of skill requirements in Europe 

PART ι Initiatives and research on 'Early identification 

of skill needs' in Europe at national level 

Susanne Liane Schmidt 
Early identification of qualification needs in Germany — 
the FreQueNz research network 

Mike Coles 
Qualifications for the future 

Jordi Planas 
Developing prospective tools for the observation 
of skill requirements in Spain 

Mario Gatti 
Network of national surveys on skill needs in Italy 

Frank Cörvers 
Labour market forecasting in the Netherlands: a top­down approach 

PART n Initiatives at sectoral level 

Jean­Louis Kirsch 
Industrial maintenance in France: new and traditional 
skill requirements 

Tom Leney 
Identifying future qualification needs in the transport sector in the 
United Kingdom: has the scenarios methodology a role? 

Manin Curley 
Addressing the ICT skills shortage in Europe 

Kathrin Schnalzer, Gerd Gidion, Miriam Thum, Helmut Kuwan 
New skill requirements in logistics 

GertAlaby 
Skill  requirements  in the  care  of  the  elderly  -  the  Swedish  example 

Norbert  Bromberger,  Helen  Diedrich-Fuhs 
Information  system  for  early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained  for  the  construction  industry 

PART  in 

Initiatives  for  specific  target  groups  and  SMEs 

Gerard  Hughes,  Jerry  J.  Sexton 
Forecasting  female  shares  of  employment  by  occupation  in  Ireland 

Beate  Zeller 
Services  in  complex  structures  -  trends  in  the  way  skills 
are  developing  in  low  skilled  work 

Peter  Wordelmann 
Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

Lothar  Abicht,  Rainer  Werner 
New  qualifications  in  SMEs  for  societal  and  technological  change  -
skilling  of  IT  users 

PART 

IV 

Ferran  Mané,  Josep  Oliver 
A  note  on  the  evolution  of  labour 
supply  in  Spain  and  its  implications  at  regional  level 

Olga  Strietska-llina 
Qualitative  versus  quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

Pal  Tamas 
Skill  markets  in a  learning  society:  transformation 
and  vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

Lewis  Kerr 
A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs 
in  regions  of  five  candidate  countries 

»sumé  and  perspectives 
Manfred  Tessaring 
Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. Activities  and  approaches 
for  European  cooperation 

Annex 

List  of  authors 
Abbreviations 

Introduction 
Early  recognition  of  skill  needs  in  Europe 
European  Conference,  Berlin,  3 0 / 31  May  2 0 02 

Increasing  globalisation  and  internationalisation  of  labour  markets  and  the 
ensuing changes  in education and training systems  represent a challenge for 
the countries of  Europe. The  Lisbon  European  Council set an ambitious  goal 
in  2000:  'The  Union  has  today  set  itself  a  new  strategic  goal  for  the  next 
decade:  to  become  the  most  competitive  and  dynamic  knowledge-based 
economy  in  the  world,  capable  of  sustainable  economic  growth  with  more 
and  better jobs  and greater  social  cohesion. ' (1) This  goal was  subsequently 
made  more specific,  especially  in terms of  establishing  lifelong  learning as a 
basic  principle governing  education  and training  systems. 

The questions that  now come to the foreground  are what form  sustainable 
skills  could  take  and  how  education  and  training  systems  need  to  be 
structured, in order to master these new challenges and achieve these goals. 
To explore these questions, the German  Federal  Ministry of  Education  and 
Research  (BMBF)  and  the  European  Centre  for  the  Development  of 
Vocational Training  (Cedefop) jointly  held a two-day  conference  in May  2002 
involving  experts  from  various  European  countries.  The  conference,  which 
was  held  at  the  Wissenschaftszentrum  in  Berlin  (Social  Science  Research 
Center  Berlin),  focused  on  the  early  identification  of  skills  needs  and  on 
intensifying  international  cooperation  in this area. 

A  total  of  45  experts  from  Germany  and  other  countries  attended  the 
conference. Representatives  of political institutions  and research  institutes in 
EL)  Member  States  (Germany,  France,  Greece,  UK,  Ireland,  Italy,  the 
Netherlands,  Spain  and  Sweden)  were  joined  by  experts  from  candidate 
countries  (Estonia,  Lithuania,  Slovenia,  the  Czech  Republic  and  Hungary). 
Cedefop  and  the  European  Training  Foundation  (ETF)  represented  the  EU 
level,  while  business  was  represented  by  a  speaker  from  Intel  on  behalf  of 
Career  Space, a consortium  of  major  ICT companies. 

Key  aspects  of  the  topic,  presentations  of  results  and  other  conference 
objectives,  were  discussed  in  the  context  of  creating  a  single  European 

O  These  and  other  European  Council  conclusions  can  be  downloaded  in  various  languages  from 

http://ue.eu.int/presid/conclusions.htm. 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

education  and  labour  market. The  emphasis  was  on  research  aimed  at the 
recognition  and  early  identification  of  skills  needs.  The  field  of  early 
identification of skills needs is becoming  increasingly  important: in a world of 
work that  is experiencing  turbulent  times, political  and  business  players  are 
having to  respond  ever  faster  to change. To do this they depend  on  reliable 
information. As the countries of the European Union grow closer, and with the 
accession  of  candidate  countries  on the  horizon,  it  is  becoming  ever  more 
important to exchange  information  in order to  make  it possible for players to 
identify  in  good  time  the  way  in  which  skills  are  developing.  The  early 
identification  of skills can greatly  help training systems  become  more future-
oriented and prevent or lessen future skills mismatches on the labour market. 
As the conference showed, what is needed to achieve this is, first of all, an 
exchange of good practices on the early  identification of skills  needs and the 
available  methods. The conference was also  intended to lay the foundations 
for future joint  procedures and for developing  a European  network. 

Conference: Early  recognition  of skill  requirements  in Europe 
Berlin 30-31 May 200*2, Social Science Research Center Berlin 

Thursday,  30  May 

Friday,  31  May 

Opening 

III.  Initiatives  on 'Early  recognition': 

Welcome:  Federal Ministry  of  Education and 
Research, Manfred Kremer 
Speech of the Cedefop Deputy  Director, 
Stavros Stavrou 

1. Initiatives  on 'Early  recognition  of skill 

requirements'  and research  projects  in Europe 
Moderation: Manired Tessaring 
Short  presentations and discussion of 
initiatives  in Member  States 
Introduction: Klaus Schümann, 
Susanne  Liane Schmidt 
United Kingdom: Mike Coles 
Spain: Jordi Planas 
Italy: Mario Gatti 
Summary:  Frank Cürvers 

II.  Initiatives  on 'Early  recognition': best 

practice  examples  for  different  sectors 
Moderation: Klaus Schümann 
Short presentations and discussion 
Industrial maintenance, Jean-Louis  Kirsch 
Transport  sector,  Tom Leney 
ICT sector, Martin Curley 
Logistics, Kathrin Schnalzer,  Miriam Thum 
Healthcare, GertAlaby 
Construction  industry,  Norbert Bromberger 

best  practice  examples  for  specific 
target groups and SMEs 
Moderation: Susanne Liane Schmidt 
Short  presentations and discussion 
Gender,  Gerry Hughes 
Disadvantaged/low  skilled, Beale Zeller 
Early recognition  of  international 
qualifications, Peter Wordelmann 
New qualifications  in SMEs, 
Lothar Abicht 

IV.  Initiatives  on 'Early  recognition': 

best practice  examples  al regional and 
European  level 
Moderation: Manfred  Tessaring 
Skill shortages  in Spain, Ferran Mané 
EU and candidate countries, 
Olga Strietska-llina 
Qualification systems at the turning  point 
of societal modernisation, Pal Tamas 
Regional initiatives in five candidate 
countries,  Lewis Kerr 

V.  linai  discussion 

Moderation: Klaus Schümann 

VI.  Préparation  of  an international  congress 

early  2803 
Moderation: Manfred Tessaring 
Discussion: Objectives, agenda, networking, 
cooperation 

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Introduction 

Main  conference  topics  and  conference  proceedings 

The  main  elements  of  the  conference  were  presentations  of  national 
initiatives and regional, sectoral and target-group-oriented  activities  designed 
to achieve early identification of skills needs. Various  levels were considered, 
namely the micro, intermediate  and macro  levels.  It also became clear  that a 
wide  range  of  approaches  were  involved,  from  'traditional'  quantitative 
projections  to  more  qualitative  approaches  such  as  scenarios  and  case 
individual 
the  conference  proceedings  presented  here, 
studies. 
contributions  follow the  order  of the conference  programme. 

In 

The  papers  are  presented  under  four  subject  headings 

(echoing 

conference  sections): 
•  Initiatives  on early  identification  of skills  needs  in  Europe at  national  level 
•  Initiatives  on early  identification  of skills  needs  in various  sectors 
•  Initiatives  on  early  identification  of  skills  needs  for  specific  target  groups 

and  SMEs 

•  Initiatives  on  early  identification  of  skills  needs  at  regional  level  and  in 

countries  in transition. 

Initiatives  on  'Early  identification  of  skill  needs' 
in  Europe  at  national  level 

individual  national 

Under  this  subject  heading,  several 
initiatives  are 
presented  by way  of  example. The  introductory  presentation  (S.L.  Schmidt) 
provides  an  overview  of  the  early  identification  initiative  of  the  German 
Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research  and  the  existing  research 
network.  The  British  contribution  (M.  Coles)  focuses  on  the  problem  of  the 
reliability  of  data  sources  and  of forecasts  of,  and  scenarios  for, future  skills 
needs. The  Spanish  contribution  (J.  Planas)  addresses  the  development  of 
forecasting tools and the development of a "skills observatory" that will collect 
and evaluate skills needs. The next contribution  (M. Gatti) presents the  Italian 
survey  network for  new skills  needs. The last contribution  under this  heading 
(F.  Córvers) considers  methods  and  results of quantitative  labour  market  and 
skills  projections  in the  Netherlands. 

Early identification of skill needs  in  Europe 

This  Part  gives  readers  a  good  insight  into  established  networks  and 
activities  related  to  the  early  identification  of  skills,  which  have  adopted  a 
variety of approaches and methods. The fundamental problems  have proved 
to  be  very  similar  in  many  countries.  This  applies,  for  example,  to  the 
networking  of  different  vocational  training  research  players  and  hence  the 
collation of different data sources and analytical procedures, as well as to the 
long-term  reliability  of quantitative  skills forecasts. 

Initiatives  on  'Early  identification  of  skill  needs' 
at  sectoral  level 

This  Part focuses on contributions  investigating future skills needs  in various 
sectors:  industrial  maintenance,  the  automotive  and  transport  sector, 
information  and communications,  logistics, health care and construction. 

The  French  presentation  (J.-L  Kirsch) on  industrial  maintenance  shows 
that owing to organisational and technological  innovations enterprises will be 
seeking  new  skills  in  the  future.  The  contribution  from  the  automotive  and 
transport sector  (T. Leney) outlines  the scenario  method of  identifying  future 
skills  needs  in the  UK transport  sector. A contribution from  Intel  (M. Curley), 
representing the Career  Space  Consortium, discusses the broad area of the 
information  and  communications  sector  and  in  particular  the  skills  gaps 
apparent  within  it.  The  contribution  on  logistics  (K.  Schnalzer  et  al.) 
concentrates  on in-company  skills development  by means of qualitative  and 
quantitative analysis. The Swedish contribution  (G. Alaby) on the health care 
sector  identifies the ageing of society  as a factor triggering  new skills needs. 
The  last  contribution  in  this  Part  (N.  Bromberger  and  H.  Diedrich-Fuhs) 
addresses the early identification of company skills trends in the construction 
sector  in Germany. 

These contributions  illustrate the variety  of approaches to specific  subject 
areas in the early identification of skills needs. Job monitoring, company case 
studies, expert discussions and networks of specialists are all used to answer 
specific  questions  about  skills  trends,  as  are  scenario-based  methods  and 
statistical  evaluations.  However,  it  is  not  possible  immediately  to  transfer 
individual results to other European countries, although parallel trends can be 
identified. 

Introduction 

Initiatives  on  'Early  identification  of  skill  needs'  for 
particular  target  groups  and  SMEs 

Skills trends  have  specific  implications  for  different  target  groups,  and  these 
are brought  out in the first two contributions  in this  Part. The  presentation  on 
forecasting  the  proportion  of  women  in  employment  in  Ireland  (G.  Hughes 
and J.J.  Sexton)  analyses  data on occupations  and investigates future  areas 
of  activity  in  which  female  employment  in  particular  will  increase.  The 
forecast  makes it possible to assess  future  employment  opportunities  and to 
develop  measures  supporting the women's  participation  in employment. The 
next  contribution  (B.  Zeiler)  outlines  the  specific  situation  of  low-skilled 
people.  Despite  the  forecast  reduction  in simple  jobs,  work  requirements  in 
this  area  are  changing.  This  paper  from  the  German  early  recognition 
initiative  shows,  by  way  of  example,  how  enterprise  changes  affect  the 
performance  of simple jobs  and the skills  required of  employees. 

The  last two contributions  in this  Part concentrate  on skills trends that  are 
posing  particular  challenges,  above  all  for  SMEs  (small  and  medium 
enterprises).  The  development  of  international  skills  is  also  becoming 
increasingly  relevant  to  smaller  enterprises:  the  rapid  globalisation  of  the 
economy means that ever more jobs involve internationally  oriented tasks, as 
international  skills  (P. 
shown 
Wordelmann).  However,  changes 
in  society  and  technology  are  also 
necessitating the development  of  new skills, as required, for  example, by the 
use  of  particular  IT  applications.  These  problems  are  described  in  the 
contribution  from  the  German  early  recognition  initiative  on  new  skills  in 
SMEs,  with  particular  emphasis  on  training  IT  users  (L.  Abicht  and  R. 
Werner). 

in  the  paper  on  early  recognition  of 

The targeted approach adopted makes  it clear that experience acquired at 
sectoral  level  can  be  incorporated  into  various  other  fields  of  application  in 
order to achieve positive  effects  on  employment  for  specific  target  groups. 

Initiatives  on  'Early  identification  of  skill  needs' 
at  regional  level  and  in  countries  in  transition 

The  first  paper  under  this  heading  (F. Mane)  looks  at skills  gaps  and worker 
shortages  in Spain. It focuses on the characteristics  of demographic  change 
and the  results  of  two  forecasts,  one  for  Spain  as  a  whole  and  one  for  the 
region of Catalonia. 

Early  identification of skill  needs in Europe 

The  next  three  contributions  address  the  specific  problems  of  countries 
that  are  candidates  for  accession  to  the  EU.  First  comes  the  Czech 
contribution  (O. Strietska-llina), which offers  an insight into the prospects for 
a country  in transition  and discusses  qualitative  and quantitative  methods of 
forecasting  skills  needs.  Next, the  Hungarian  paper  (P. Tamas)  outlines  the 
pressure  on  skills  systems  to  change  as  a  result  of  the  modernisation  of 
society.  Finally  the  representative  of  the  European  Training  Foundation  (L. 
Kerr) presents  initiatives for forecasting skills needs by discussing the goals, 
methods and results of a demand-based  skills survey  carried out in selected 
regions of five candidate  countries. 

The  contributions  under  this  heading  show  that  systems  for  the  early 
identification  of  skills  display  area-specific  characteristics.  Their  design  and 
method  of  implementation  must  therefore  take  into  account  the  features  of 
the sector,  region and country. 

Conference  results 

The conference  aimed to initiate cooperation throughout  Europe, to increase 
the exchange  of  information on approaches,  methods  and results  in respect 
of  early  identification  of  skills  needs,  and  to  instigate  the  formation  of  a 
transregional and transnational network. Such a network was not intended to 
be restricted to the research sphere, but to include the relevant  stakeholders 
in all fields -  policy, practice, social partners, etc. 

All  participants  unanimously  confirmed  the  necessity  of these  objectives, 
not least  because  (as shown  by the  papers  brought  together  in this volume) 
a very  wide  range  of  methods  and  approaches  are  being  used  by  different 
insufficiently 
countries  and  experts,  and  as  yet  these  activities  are 
transparent.  Some  countries  have  already  made  a  lot  of  progress,  while 
others  are  still  in  the  early  stages,  either  owing  to  a  lack  of  appropriate 
experience  and  competence  or  because  the  relevant  organisational  and 
statistical  infrastructure  or  political support  is as yet  inadequate.  However,  it 
is  often  difficult  to  gain  access  to  this  information  (not  least  for  language 
reasons).  So  far  there  has  not  been  much  cooperation  across  national 
borders, despite some  recent progress. 

In the  plenary  session that closed the conference,  it was argued that EU-
level research into early identification should not be restricted to a discussion 
of  methodological  and  theoretical  aspects  and  results.  Possible  courses  of 
action  should also  be developed  in support  of  policy, practice  and the social 
partners,  with  emphasis  on  the  sectoral  and  regional  levels.  It  was  also 

Introduction 

argued  that  a  further  objective  should  be  to  develop  'early  recognition  or 
identification  standards',  which  could  help  to  match  skills  needs  and  skills 
profiles.  This  could  also  make  it  easier  to  compare  national  methods  and 
results. Countries  still in the early stages of researching  early  identification or 
currently  developing  or  planning  the  relevant 
infrastructure  (including 
candidate  countries)  should  be  more  closely  involved  in this. 

Against  this  background, the  conference  presented  in this  publication  not 
only  offers  an  inventory  of  activities  in  various  European  countries  but  also 
represents  a  starting  point  for  intensive  future  cooperation,  both  between 
experts  and  research  institutes  in different  countries  and  between  research, 
policy  and  practice.  This  exchange  is  aimed  at  accelerating  the  continued 
development  of  methods  and  approaches  and  of  mutual  learning  via 
transnational  cooperation  in  research.  Furthermore,  it  is essential  for  policy 
makers  and  practitioners  (including  the  social  partners)  to  be  involved  from 
the  outset.  In  this  way,  all  those  responsible  are  made  aware  that  it  is 
necessary  for education and training to be sustainably  designed on the  basis 
of  specific  information  and  recommendations,  and  they  are  encouraged  to 
provide  staffing, financial  and  organisational  support  for the efforts  involved. 
These  are  some  ways  in  which  cooperation  and  transparency  could  be 

promoted: 
•  Establishment  of  a  transnational  network,  for  which  an  organisational 
framework  needs  to  be  created,  equipped  with  the  necessary  staff  and 
resources. 

•  Creation  of  a  website  or  Extranet  as  a  discussion  platform  for  network 
members. Appropriate  infrastructures  are  already  available  and  could  be 
linked  with  one  another,  such  as  the  website  of  the  German  FreQueNz 
Early  Recognition 
Initiative  and  Cedefop's  electronic  communication 
platforms  (Electronic  Training  Village,  Cedefop  Research  Arena  and 
European  Research  Overview). 

•  A  mutual  exchange  of  methods,  approaches,  projects  and  results  as 
regards  the  early  identification  of  skills  needs,  via  regular  documented 
expert  conferences  or  seminars  involving  researchers,  policy-makers  and 
practitioners  in various  countries. 

•  Specific  cooperation  between  research  institutes  in  various  countries  on 

particular  projects,  including  expert visits and  exchange. 

•  Preparation  and  continued  updating  of  an  'early  identification  handbook' 
and a 'European  report  on skills development',  which should  also be  made 
available  on the  Internet. 

•  Development  of  an  information  and  documentation  database,  involving  all 

members  of the  network  and giving  access to  external  sources. 

10 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

The 

final  paper 

Tessaring) 
summarises  the  early  identification  activities  and  discusses  the  prospects  for 
European-level  cooperation. 

these  conference  proceedings 

(M. 

in 

Other  planned  activities 

The  proceedings  of the  European conference  on early  identification  are  being 
published  in  both  English  and  German.  Cedefop  is  publishing  the  English 
version,  while  the  German  version  forms  part  of  the  FreQueNz  series.  (2) 

The  contributions  and  findings  of  the  European  conference  held  in  May 
2002  are  also  being  used 
international 
conference  on early  identification  of skills  needs. This  conference  will  be  held 
at  Cedefop's  headquarters  in  Thessaloniki  in  May  2003,  on  the  occasion  of 
the  Greek  Presidency  of  the  EU. 

in  preparing  and  orienting  an 

Susanne  Liane  Schmidt, 
Klaus  Schömann, 
Manfred  Tessaring 

(2)  Schmidt, S.L.; Schömann,  K.; Tessaring, M., eds.  Früherkennung  von  Qualifikationserfordernissen 
in Europa. Qualifikationen  erkennen -  Berufe gestalten. H.-J.  Bullinger, ed. Bielefeld: Bertelsmann, 
2003. 

Welcome  and  opening 
of  the  European  conference 
'Early  recognition  of  skill  requirements  in  Europe' 
30  May  2 0 0 2,  Social  Science  Research  Center  Berlin  (1) 

Manfred Kremer,  Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), 
Bonn,  Germany 

Ladies and  Gentlemen, 

It is a great  pleasure to welcome  you to the  Wissenschaftszentrum  here in 

Berlin today. 

Early  recognition  of  skill  requirements  is  an  important  instrument  in  the 
context  of a preventive  employment  and training policy  and therefore  also an 
important  element  with  a  view  to  achieving  the  goal  set  by  the  European 
Council in Lisbon, namely to make Europe the most dynamic  and competitive 
knowledge-based  economy  in the world. 

Allow  me to mention just two aspects which highlight the  importance of an 
effective  early  recognition  system.  In  Germany,  there  are  currently  almost 
four  million  persons  registered  as  unemployed.  But  at the  same  time  almost 
one out of every ten German companies  reports job vacancies which they are 
unable to  fill. The  number  of job  vacancies  has  risen  for the third time  in the 
course of this year, and currently  stands at some 520 000. This  contradictory 
situation -  high unemployment on the one hand and unfilled job vacancies on 
the  other  -  is  largely  the  result  of  a frequent  mismatch  between  skill  supply 
and  skill  demand. Although  an  effective  early  recognition  system  providing 
timely  and  appropriate  conclusions  for  employment  and skilling  policy  could 
perhaps  not  entirely  solve  this  problem,  it  could  at  least  partly  alleviate  the 
situation. 

The  second  aspect  which  highlights  the  importance  of  a  training  und 
skilling  policy  oriented  towards  developments  in the  employment  system  in 
very  general  terms  is  the  demographic  development  with  which  we  are 

(')  Wissenschaftszentrum  Berlin  (WZB). 

12 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

confronted  not  only  here  in  Germany  but  also  in  most  other  European 
countries.  In  the  Federal  Republic,  the  number  of  young  recruits  will 
continually  fall  from  2010  onwards.  Whereas  almost  two-thirds  of  the 
population was still under 50 in 2000, this age-bracket  will account for only a 
good  half  of the population  by the year  2030, with a corresponding  increase 
in  the  proportion  of  the  over  50s.  These  developments  may  trigger  an 
exacerbation  of  existing  allocation  problems  in the  training  and job  market. 
Whereas  certain  sectors  and  regions  show  a dearth  of  specialised  workers 
and training places, other regions and future-oriented sectors of the economy 
find it impossible to fill the existing supply of jobs and training places. And this 
is true  not only of future-oriented  sectors of the economy,  but indeed also of 
many traditional  areas  in which skill requirements  are also  rapidly changing. 
In this context, early recognition of skill requirements  has two principal tasks. 
On the one hand, it has the task of guiding the adaptation of the structure and 
content  of  training  supply  to  changes  in  the  employment  system  with  the 
shortest possible time lag. On the other hand, in view of demographic factors, 
it will  no longer  be possible -  as was often  the case  in the  past -  to  largely 
cover  new  skill  requirements  by  freshly  trained  young  recruits;  it  will  in 
addition  be  necessary  to  invest  more  in  the  targeted  continuing  training  of 
those already  in the workplace. This is particularly true of senior  members of 
the  workforce,  often  premature  drop  outs  from  working  life  due  to failure  to 
continually  develop their qualifications  and thereby  their  employability. 

In general, all the forecasts  indicate that the  main trends can be expected 

to continue, i.e. 
•  a shift  in economic structures  away from the  manufacturing  industries  into 

the services  sector; 

•  broader,  and  frequently  also  higher,  skill  requirements  in  a  considerable 

number of workplaces. 
In Germany, we intend to cater for this demand for high- and top-level skills 
not  only  by  means  of  our  higher  education  system,  but  also  via  our 
differentiated  system of  initial and continuing vocational training. However at 
the  same  time  current  forecasts  indicate  that  fields  of  activity  involving  less 
complex  requirements  are  by  no  means  expected  to  disappear  completely 
but will  in fact always  account  for  a substantial  proportion  of job  supply.  But 
since  skill  requirements  will  also  tend  to  rise  at  this  level,  skilling  is  also 
necessary  at this level. 

We have therefore  initiated  a whole  series of reforms  in recent years  and 
considerably  increased  federal  government  investment  in  education  and 
training  since  1998.  Measures  to  promote  university  students  have  been 
substantially  improved and paved the way for the introduction of  new course 

Welcome  and opening of the  European conference 

'Early recognition of skill requirements  in Europe"  I  13 

structures, e.g. the introduction of the Bachelor and Master degrees  reflecting 
customary  international  practice. The  service  regulations  for  academic  staff 
have  been  reformed  to  substantially  improve  the  incentives  for  high-quality 
research  and  teaching  and  to  attract  top-level  talent.  Moreover,  in  the 
framework  of  our  alliance for  employment,  training  and competitiveness,  we 
have  also  laid  substantial  foundations  for  a  root-and-branch  reform  of  our 
initial  and  continuing  vocational  training  system  with  the  social  partners  and 
the  Federal  States  (Länder)  over the  last three  years. Within the  alliance  for 
employment,  the  federal  government,  economic  associations  and  trade 
unions,  with  the  participation  of  the  Länder,  have  agreed  on  common 
guidelines,  objectives  and  concrete  steps  for  the  development  of  all  key 
areas  of vocational  educational  and training  policy  which  we  are  now  rolling 
out  step  by  step.  Moreover,  a  substantial  modernisation  of  our  vocational 
training  system  has  been  initiated  in  recent  years. A considerable  number of 
training  occupations  have been modernised and new occupations  have been 
created  in  key  areas  of  industry  and  employment,  particularly  in  growth 
sectors such as  information  technology  (IT) and the  media.  In a similar  vein, 
we  are  in the  process  of adapting  our  system  of further  training  occupations 
- 
i.e.  state  recognised  continuing  training  programmes  which  can  be 
completed  following vocational  training  and a certain  degree  of  occupational 
experience  -  to  the  new  developments,  IT  and  media  occupations  being  a 
good example. 

In the second  half of the  1990s, we developed  a whole  raft of new training 
occupations  for  IT and  the  media  which  in the  opinion  of  the  sector  largely 
cover the skill requirements  in this field. Whereas there were a total of  some 
14  000  trainees  in  this  field  in  1998,  today's  figure  stands  at  over  70  000, 
clearly  ahead  of  the target  of  60  000  training  places  by the  end  of  2003  set 
in our  alliance for  employment  with the  employers. 

Following  on from  this  initiative, we  have  created  a  modern  IT  continuing 
training  system  in  collaboration  with  the  trade  unions  and  employers' 
associations. 

The  regulation  on  the  introduction  of  these  State  recognised  continuing 
training  occupations  entered  into  force  just  recently.  The  programmes  in 
question provide continuing training opportunities forthose  having  completed 
the  new  IT training  occupations,  as well  as  for  the  many  'lateral  entrants'  in 
this occupational field: as many some  80% of the  1.6  million  IT experts  have 
no  relevant  vocational  or  university  qualifications.  The  new  further  training 
occupations  present  an  opportunity  for  this  target  group  to  certify  their 
qualifications and make them transferable in the labour market. The three-tier 
system  leads to qualifications  for activities  currently  frequently  carried out by 

14 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

university  graduates. With the support  of the  Federal  Institute for  Vocational 
Training  (BIBB),  the  social  partners  and  the  federal  government  have  thus 
created  instruments  with which the sector  can effectively  combat  the  dearth 
of specialists  in the  IT field. 

Since these further training occupations  lead to qualifications for  activities 
hitherto frequently  carried out  by university  graduates -  and incidentally  this 
is  also  true  of  many  of  our  recognised  continuing  vocational  training 
certificates  -  we  wish  to  use  this  as  a  step  towards  the  recognition  of  the 
equivalence  of  vocational  and  academic  education  and  the  combination  of 
vocational training and a further  course of higher education. This  is a field in 
which we have made only cautious  progress  in Germany  compared to other 
European  countries  -  so  much  so  that  in  the  opinion  of  the  federal 
government  and the  social  partners, we  are wasting  essential  opportunities 
to tap the full skilling potential. We will attempt to underpin this  initiative  by a 
ECTS-compatible  assessment  of  IT  certificates  based  on  performance 
points,  to  be  transferable  not  only  nationally,  but  also  transnational^,  in 
accordance with the decisions of the Barcelona Council. 

Developments  in  our  employment  system  -  and  here  globalisation, 
internationalisation  and the  rapid  pace of  technological  change  in  particular 
come to  mind -  imply  constantly  changing  skill requirements  of the both the 
workforce and the up and coming generation. Lifelong learning is the strategy 
by  means  of  which  all  our  countries  and  indeed  also  the  European  Union 
intend  to  confront  this  challenge.  You  are  all  familiar  with  the  reports, 
memoranda  and  decisions  at  EU  level  which  have  made  an  essential 
contribution to reinforcing  relevant developments  in Europe, both at the level 
of in each individual  Member  State  and at the  European  level  itself. 

In  the  Federal  Republic,  we  have  launched  a  large-scale  action 
programme entitled 'Lifelong learning', for which a budget of  EUR 250 m has 
been  allocated  over  the  coming  years.  It  is  an  extremely  broadly-based 
action  programme  involving  all  the  major  players  in  the  vocational  training 
field.  The  various  lines  of  action  range  from  the  development  of  new  initial 
and  continuing  training  strategies  for  so-called  disadvantaged  groups  of 
society  and  the  lesser  skilled,  development  and  demonstration  projects  to 
promote  regional  cooperation  and the  networking  of the  players  in the field, 
the development of concepts for the systematic use of informal learning in the 
working  process  and  assessment  and  certification  of  informally  acquired 
knowledge to the development of essential elements of quality  assurance for 
continuing  vocational  training.  We see  our  initiatives  in  a  European  context 
and commensurate with the resolutions of Lisbon, Stockholm, Barcelona and 
the  recently  initiated  Bruges  initiative  of the  Directors-General  for  Vocational 

Welcome and opening ol the European conference 
'Early recognition of skill requirements  in Europe' 

15 

Training.  We  wish  to  play  a  more  active  role,  in  particular  as  far  as 
implementation  of  the  Bruges  initiative  is  concerned,  and  make  a  more 
targeted  contribution  of  our  know  how  to  the  development  of  practice  and 
labour  market-oriented  initial  and  continuing  training. Our  main focus  in this 
context  is  quality  assurance  in  vocational  training  in  the  EU,  transparency 
and  transnational  transferability  of  qualifications  and  certificates  and  joint 
development  of training  programmes. 

trends  and  early 

I believe that the general conditions  I have outlined clearly  illustrate that in 
the  context  of  international  competition,  the  production  factor  'knowledge', 
hand in hand with a quality-  and future-oriented  initial and continuing  training 
system,  constitute  a  key  factor  to  safeguard  the  individual  Member  States 
and the  European  Union  as a whole  as attractive  locations for  industry.  New 
in 
employment 
employment  and  occupational  fields  must  be observed  as far  as  possible  to 
prevent a mismatch between skill supply  and demand  resulting  in a dearth of 
skilled labour  and to  ensure  that  training  does  not  lag  behind  labour  market 
trends. It is also necessary to foster a broadly-based development  of  learning 
in the  labour  process.  Because one thing is clear: lifelong learning cannot be 
achieved  by  means  of  formal  continuing  training  programmes  and  courses 
alone. On the  contrary,  lifelong  learning  above  all  implies targeted  utilisation 
of  learning  opportunities  in  the  workplace  and  the  social  environment  and 
validation  of the  results  of  informal  learning. 

recognition  of  emerging  changes 

For this  reason, we  need sufficiently  reliable and substantiated  information 
on  emerging  trends.  In  Germany,  early  recognition  is  on  the  one  hand  an 
information  base  which  enables  the  social  partners  to  adapt  initial  and 
continuing  vocational  training  to  the  specific  processes  of  change  in  the 
labour  market;  on the  other  hand, it  serves  individuals  as  a basis  to  assess 
their  own  specific  training  needs  and  independently  understand  and 
implement  lifelong  learning  as an active  means of shaping their  own  working 
and training  careers. 

The  decision  on  the  early  recognition  of  new  skill  requirements  was 
consequently  one  of  the  very  first  reforms  adopted  by  the  alliance  for 
employment,  training  and  competitiveness  which  I  mentioned  earlier.  This 
decision  is the basis for development  of the initiative  on the  early  recognition 
von  skill  requirements  sponsored  by  the  Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and 
Research. 

This  initiative, which  will be  presented to  you  in detail  in the course  of  our 
conference and in the conference proceedings, comprises a package of  inter 
related projects  implemented  by the  social  partners, the  Federal  Institute  for 
Vocational Training  (BIBB)  and other  scientific  institutions. 

16 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

The objectives of these  initiatives  are as follows: 

1.  ongoing  qualitative  identification  of  those  fields  of  activity  in  which 

changes  are observed; 

2.  definition of specific skills and qualifications which will be required in these 

fields of activity  in the future; 

3.  identification  of current  related skill supply  as well as deficits and gaps in 

supply; and 

4.  testing  a whole  range of different  early  recognition  methods. 

A  number  of  these  projects  have  now  been  underway  for  almost  three 

years and a whole  array  of results  have already  been presented. 

A further  step  is to analyse the results to date and to reflect and follow up 

new impetus. 

In this context  it is  necessary: 

1.  to  test  the  methods  used  to  determine  skill  requirements  for  their 
efficiency  and  implementability  and  to  find  ways  and  means  of 
implementing these efficient  methods of  analysis  in the training arena; 
2.  to  intensify  cooperation  and  exchange  of  information  in  existing 
information networks. The initiation of an ongoing exchange of information 
and experience  on examples  of  'best  practice' in the  identification  of skill 
requirements  and  the  creation  of  greater  transparency  on  new  skill 
requirements could give fresh momentum to the vocational training reform 
process; 

3.  to  feed  the  skill  requirements  identified  in  the  various  fields  of  activity, 
sectors,  branches  and  certain  target  groups  into  the  training  policy 
debate. 
In  the  case  of  Germany,  this  means  that  the  results  must  be  made 
available to the social partners as a basis not only to modernise and promote 
new developments within the vocational training system but also as the basis 
for  a new learning culture  in industry. 

Regardless  of  the  experience  already  acquired  in  this  field,  it  is  also 
important for  us to  look  beyond  our  own  borders. We wish to contribute  our 
experience to date to the  European training area. We wish to ascertain what 
experience has been acquired by other countries and what we can learn from 
such experience. 

For  all  these  reasons,  it  was  and  is  only  logical  for  us  to  organise  this 
European  conference  along  with the  European  Centre for  the  Development 
of Vocational Training, Cedefop. 

The  conference  and  its  proceedings  will  focus  on  an  exchange  of 
information  on  early  recognition  initiatives  and  the  results  of  selected 
examples  from  various  European  countries.  We  also  wish  to  have  an 

Welcome and opening of the European conference 
Early recognition of skill requirements in Europe' 

17 

exchange  of  views  on  the  preparation  of  a  conference  to  be  organised  by 
Cedefop  in 2003. 

Such a conference could not least decide to set up a European network for 
the  early  recognition  of  skill  requirements.  Because  many  of  the  general 
conditions  and  developments  I have  described  are  also to  be found  in other 
European  countries,  albeit  in  different  forms  and  against  the  background  of 
different  national  education/training  systems  and  specific  forms  of  labour 
organisation.  This  is  why  we  must  continue  to  learn  from  each  other  within 
the  European  Union, seeking  examples  of  best  practice  and  examining  and 
implementing  such  models  against  the  background  of  the  appropriate 
specific  national  conditions.  We  regard  support  of this  transfer  of  know-how 
as one of our  most  important tasks. As  I mentioned  at the outset, we wish to 
draw  benefit  from  this  exchange  with  other  EU  states  in  the  context  of  our 
own  vocational  training  reforms.  But  we  also  wish  to  make  a  more  active 
contribution  of  our  profile  and  our  know-how  to  labour  market  and  practice-
oriented vocational  training  in  Europe. 

I  am  therefore  very  pleased  that  we  have  managed  to  organise  this 

conference  and  I look forward to  intensive discussions  and  positive  results. 

Early  recognition  of  skill 
requirements  in  Europe 

Stavros Stavrou,  European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training 
(Cedefop),  Thessaloniki,  Greece 

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

People,  whether  as  individuals  or  in  formal  or  informal  groupings,  have 
always  longed to  be able to see what the future  held and  have devised and 
used  a  whole  range  of  organisations  and  instruments  for  doing  so  -  for 
political  purposes,  in  times  of  war,  or  to  satisfy  other  public  or  private 
interests.  Among  the  examples  that  immediately  spring  to  mind  are  the 
oracles  at  Delphi  and  Dodona  in  ancient  Greece, the  medicine  men  of  the 
North  American  Indians,  astrology,  and  the  reading  of  palms  and  coffee-
grounds  - some of them  still popular today.  It is strange that  people often do 
not  seem  to  realise  how  little  scope  for  initiative  life  would  hold  and  how 
boring it would  be if there were  no longer  any surprises  in store. 

While  the  seriousness  behind  these  various  means  of  fortune-telling 
leaves  room for doubt, the same cannot  be said of the  many attempts  made 
to  predict  future  trends  for  purposes  of  educational  planning  and  labour 
market  research,  particularly  since  the  end  of  the  Second  World  War. 
Research  institutes,  scientists,  and  other  experts  of  repute  have  invested  a 
great deal of time, money and thought in such projects and come up with very 
sophisticated  models  and  tools.  I  need  only  remind  you  of  the  OECD's 
Mediterranean  Regional Project in of the 1960s. Even so, with hindsight most 
of  these  attempts  proved  unrealistic  for  various  reasons  when  the  results 
were compared with actual trends  and figures. 

Without wanting to appear pernickety, the last two words of the title of this 
conference  -  'in  Europe'  -  look  to  me  rather  over-ambitious.  It  might  have 
been  more  correct  to  talk  of  'skill  requirements  in  a  number  of  European 
countries' and keep the present title with  its  more demanding  subject-matter 
to be tackled at some future date when many of the trends as regards content 
and organisation  of work  and technology  on the  one  hand  and  occupations 
or occupational  groups  on the other  look  likely  to converge  beyond  national 
frontiers, making the exchange of experience and knowledge and the pursuit 
of synergy  in Europe  and wider  afield even more  necessary. 

Early  recognition  of  skill requirements  in  Europe 

19 

It  would,  for  instance,  be  desirable  for  existing  national  networks  to  be 
linked together  without  selfishness  and  rivalry  to give  a  European  coverage. 
In  doing  so  one  would  have  to  be  careful  to  distinguish  and  separate  the 
various  purposes  and  objectives,  such  as  monitoring  and  reporting  or 
analysis  and research. 

During  this  conference  - the first  multinational  working  meeting  of  its  kind 
- we should try to discuss  and learn from one another  about such  matters as: 
•  methodologies  and  approaches; 
•  the choice of sectors  and  relevant  occupations  or occupational  groups; 
•  national  and/or  regional trends; 
•  possibilities  for  action  on  the  part  of  the  political  powers  and  other 

stakeholders. 
We  will  probably  find  that  in  some  areas  such  as  computer  science, 
transport,  the  environment  and  the  caring  professions  the  trends  are  very 
similar  and  even  converging.  Slowly  but  surely  we  are  witnessing  the 
emergence  not just of a European labour  market, but one that sooner or later 
will  be  supplemented  by  a  European  education  and  training  market. 
Competition  will  then  increasingly  make  itself  felt.  Common  standards  and 
benchmarks for occupational profiles as well as training quality indicators and 
a  process  of quality  assurance  will then  be indispensable. A kind of  Bologna 
process  for  vocational  training  is  already  beginning  to  show  itself  after  the 
Bruges  initiative.  The  sovereignty  of  national  governments  in  matters  of 
education  and  training  policy  that  is  underpinned  by  treaty  means  that  any 
discussions  and agreements  must be voluntary. This  is no disadvantage  - on 
the contrary  - persuasion  has in the longer term always proved more  effective 
than diktats from  above, or from  outside. 

Turning to the  relationship  of training to the world of work, the training  one 
receives  need not inevitably determine the job one actually does.  Sometimes 
people  with  different  educational  and  training  backgrounds  may  be  -  and 
indeed  are  -  employed  in  the  same  type  of  work.  The  scope  and  flexibility 
which  this  affords  is  more  than  welcome  so far  as  politicians  are  concerned 
because  it widens the field of choice when deciding what  measures  are  most 
appropriate  in any given  case. 

It  is  my  impression  that  we  have  all  learned  from  the  past  and  have 
become  more  careful  in our  attitude to forecasts. And very  rightly  so. This  is 
noticeable  even  in our choice  of  words  - the fact that we  now  tend  to talk  of 
'early  recognition,  identification  or  anticipation'  rather  than  'predictions'  or 
'projections'  suggests  a  degree  of  caution.  And  the  fact  that  we  look  for 
alternative options is a sign of progress compared with the previous tendency 
to  regard forecasts  as definitive  and sound. This testifies  to a  more  scientific 

20 

Early identification of skill needs  in  Europe 

Faced  with 

approach  that  is  not  far  removed  from  political  reality  but  remains  closely 
linked to it, and seems to be leading to a fruitful dialectic. 
in  future  give 
the  question  of  whether  we  should 
methodological  problems  equal  weighting  with  those  of  subject-matter,  or 
whether  we  should  give  either  aspect  preference,  my  answer  would 
spontaneously  be that we should give  priority to subjects  or sectors  and the 
corresponding  occupations  but  without  leaving  the  methodologies  and 
methods, which  are  necessary,  uncritically  to  lead their  own  life. We  should 
concentrate  on the  practical  feasibility  of  our  early  recognition  efforts,  since 
otherwise  we  would  risk  finding  ourselves  in  an  academic  ivory  tower.  The 
practical demands are easily discernible and even force themselves upon us. 
Public  funds  are  increasingly  in  short  supply  at  all  levels,  cost-benefit 
analyses with their various benchmarks are being carried out more frequently 
before projects  are approved, and individuals  are more often being asked to 
meet the cost for themselves. As a result everyone -  individuals, government 
authorities or sponsors -  want to see some concrete  and useful  result, even 
if  only  in  the  narrow  material  sense.  Our  work  should  be  aimed  first  and 
foremost  at  giving  a greater  and deeper  meaning  to  political  action. This  is 
particularly  necessary at a time when politicians' credibility and the esteem in 
which they  are held has reached a low, even in Europe. 

To be somewhat  more specific,  I should  like to draw  attention to  a matter 
deserving  of  the  highest  political  priority  at  all  levels,  namely  combating 
unemployment  with  consistent,  effective  measures  designed  to  bring  long-
term success. NAPs -  the national employment action plans -  have for some 
time  now been produced annually  by all  EU countries and as far as possible 
implemented  and  evaluated.  Here  political  wishful  thinking  or  window-
dressing are definitely on the way out. One cannot pull the wool over the eyes 
of  either  neutral  (by  which  I  mean  European)  bodies  nor  the  citizens  of 
Europe  in  the  long  run.  The  vast  payments  made,  for  example,  by  the 
European  structural  funds,  the  Leonardo  da  Vinci  programme  and  other 
sources  of  finance  for  education  and training  have  to  be very  well justified, 
even  if the  cause-and-effect  relationship  is sometimes  very  difficult  or  even 
impossible  to demonstrate.  Here our  work  can  and  must  produce  results  in 
the  form  of  probable  and  plausible  trends  that  have  been  thoroughly 
discussed, are soundly  based and serve to guide and instruct politicians and 
practitioners  in their action. 

Early  recognition  of skill  requirements  in  Europe 

21 

On  the  other  hand,  methods  used  for  early  recognition  cannot  simply  be 
taken  for  granted  as  reliable  or  undisputed.  They  need  to  be  put  to  debate 
and scrutinised carefully  before being made available to anyone interested in 
the  form,  say,  of  a  Manual  for  the  Early  Recognition  of  Qualification 
Requirements.  Even  countries  or  regions  that  have  already  made  good 
progress in this respect can still learn from the experience  and best  practices 
of  others.  But  it would  be  particularly  useful  for  those  who  still  have  a  great 
deal  of  catching  up  to  do  and  need  considerable  help  and  support.  Merely 
providing  them  with  a  blueprint  in the  form  of  an  uncritical transfer  of  know-
how  would  not  be  appropriate  because  this  method  has  failed  in  the  past. 
Instead  the  recipient  countries  or  regions  need  to  study  the  experience  of 
other  countries  critically  against  the  background  of  their  overall  context  of 
origin  and  assess  it  before  trying  to  apply  it,  suitably  adapted, to  their  own 
particular  case. 

If our conference  is to be successful  and we are to have taken  not just one 
but  several  steps  forward  by  tomorrow  afternoon,  a  follow-up  meeting  in 
Thessaloniki  in  the  spring  of  next  year,  perhaps  to  coincide  with  the  Greek 
presidency,  could then  look  like  a real  possibility. 

PART  I 

Initiatives  and  research 
on  'Early  identification 
of  skill  needs' 
in  Europe  at  national  level 

Under  this  subject  heading,  several  individual  national  initiatives 
are  presented  by  way  of  example. They  give  readers  a  valuable 
insight  into  established  networks  and  activities  related  to  the 
early  identification  of  skills,  which  have  adopted  a  variety  of 
approaches  and  methods. 

The  fundamental  problems  have  proved  to  be  very  similar  in 
many  countries.  This  applies,  for  example,  to  the  networking  of 
different  vocational  training  research  players  and  hence  the 
collation  of  different  data  sources  and  analytical  procedures,  as 
well  as  to  the  long-term  reliability  of  quantitative  skills  forecasts. 

Articles  in  Part I 

Susanne  Liane  Schmidt  (D) 
Early  identification  of  qualification  needs  in  Germany 
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

Mike  Coles  (UK) 
Qualifications  for the  future 

Jordi  Planas (E) 
Developing  prospective tools for  the  observation 
of skill  requirements  in Spain 

Mario  Gatti (I) 
Network  of  national  surveys on skill  needs  in Italy 

Frank  Córvers  (NL) 
Labour  market forecasting  in the  Netherlands: 
a top-down  approach 

Early  identification  of  qualification 
needs  in  Germany -  the  FreQueNz 
research  network 

Susanne Liane Schmidt, Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (FhlAO), 
Stuttgart,  Germany 

When the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research launched its project 
on  early  identification  of  qualification  needs,  it  brought  into  being  a  research 
network to deal with questions of future skills development. The project focuses on 
identifying future skill requirements at an early stage and assessing results in terms 
of the development and relevance of skills. Individual research activities have been 
grouped  together under the umbrella  of  FreQueNz (an acronym  made up of the 
German  for  'Network  of  Early  identification  of  qualification  needs')  and  the 
resulting information  made generally accessible. The purpose of the  independent 
FreQueNz network project is to combine findings and coordinate research activities 
by  means  of  organised  events  such  as  joint  workshops  and  presentations  and 
through  publications.  By promoting  and  accommodating  the  early  identification 
initiative,  the  Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research  seeks'  to  assist  the 
forward-looking  design of the vocational training system in Germany. 

Processed  results are communicated  via the www.frequenz.net  website which 
interested  users  can  access  to  obtain  information  about  the  various  research 
activities and gather relevant data. This platform also has links to other bodies and 
early identification  projects. 

Research results are additionally published in printed form. There are now eight 
volumes in the FreQueNz series of book publications and others are planned. Short 
articles on recent findings are published in a newsletter. Both books and newsletter 
can be ordered via the website or from the author of this paper directly. 

Early  identification  of  qualification  needs  in Germany  -
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

25 

i. 

Introduction 

Recognising  trends  in  skill  requirements  at  an  early  stage  represents  a 
challenge to government,  industry and academic  bodies, since  shortcomings 
in  vocational 
firms' 
therefore 
competitiveness  and  individuals'  career  opportunities. 
important  that  we  view  skills  as  vital  for  sustainable  development  and  for 
coping with  changes  in the world of  work. 

the  development  of  skills 

training  and 

impair 

It  is 

Figure  1.  Early  recognition  of  qualification  needs  is a specialised  and 
forward-looking  area  of vocational  training  research 

The vital role of qualification in coping with change 

III» 

I I I* 

ιιιιφ 

IIII» 

IIII» 

The world of work is changing and employees are confronted with changing 
qualification requirements. 

Qualification  research  enables  firms  and  their  employees  to  cope  with 
structural, organisational and technical change. 

Early  recognition  of  qualification  requirements  gives  an  early  warning of 
changes in occupations and identifies new occupational trends. 

Acquiring  qualifications  appropriate  to  requirements  enhances  individuals' 
employability. Firms need skilled employees to ensure competitiveness. 

Early recognition of qualification requirements permits advance planning of 
initial and continuing training and is a means of coping with technological, 
economic and demographic change. 

By  means  of  its  'Early  identification  of  qualification  needs'  initiative  the 
German  Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research  helps  to  provide 
answers to  questions  concerning  skill  and qualification  trends  and to  ensure 
the  future  effectiveness  of  the  initial  and  continuing  vocational  training 
system.  The  project  partners 
initiative  study  emerging  skill 
in  the 
requirements  and  assess  their  likely  further  development,  conscious  that  a 
sound  basis  of  education  and  skills  is  increasingly  important  for  individuals' 
chances  of  finding  and  keeping  employment  and  for  economy  and  the 
employment  system. 

26 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

2.  The  research  network:  project  partners, 

methodology  and  objectives 

The  purpose  of  the  FreQueNz  network  is to  generate  results  useful  for  an 
innovative  design  of  the vocational  training  system  and to  enable  it to  react 
promptly  to changes taking  place  in the world of work.  It seeks to  recognise 
skill  requirements  at  an  early  stage  and  to  make  the  findings  available 
together with proposals for possible action at the level of initial and continuing 
vocational training. 

It focuses  principally  on the following questions: 

•  Which  specific  occupations  or  occupational  groups  will  be  affected  by 

changes  in working  practices? 

•  Which specific  skills will be needed  in future and what training  is available 

to meet the  need? 

•  Which skills will be needed when? 
•  How  can  skills  be  constantly  developed  to  keep  pace  with  changing 

requirements? 
In order to identify skill requirements  and take action at an early stage it is 
important  to  combine  a  substantial  volume  of  information  from  different 
sources  in  the  field  of  educational  and  vocational  training  research  with 
appropriately  processed  statistical  information, such  as  labour  market  data. 
This  is achieved thanks  to the collaboration  of  a number  of  project  partners 
within the  FreQueNz  research  network. 

Project  partners 

The Federal Ministry's early identification initiative links eight separate bodies 
in  the  FreQueNz  research  network.  These  are  the  Vocational  Training 
Research  Department  of  the  Bavarian  Employers'  Associations  (bfz),  the 
Federal  Institute  for  Vocational  Training  (BIBB),  the  Fraunhofer  Institute  for 
Industrial  Engineering  (FhlAO),  Infratest  Sozialforschung  (Social  Research), 
the  Institute  of  Structural  Policies  and  Economic  Development  Halle-Leipzig 
e.V.  (isw),  the  Social  Science  Research  Center  Berlin  (WZB),  and  the 
German  Employers'  Organisation 
in 
collaboration  with  the  Research  Institute  for  Vocational  Education  and 
Training in the Crafts  Sector at the  University  of Cologne  (FBH). 

for  Vocational  Training  (KWB) 

An  important  feature  of  the  FreQueNz  network  is  that  it  is  interactive. 
Networking enables the results obtained by the different  research projects to 
be  combined  and  made  available  to  different  user  groups  (see  Figure  2). 
Empirically  confirmed  information  concerning  changes  in  skilled  labour 
requirements provide hooks on which to hang an appropriate design for initial 

Early  identification  of qualification  needs  in Germany -

the FreQueNz  research network 

27 

and  continuing  vocational  training  and constitutes  a  useful  future-oriented 
tool for the decisions  and  actions of policy-makers  and training  practitioners, 
as well as of individuals. 

Figure 2.  FreQueNz  combines  partners' project  results  and  makes 

them available  to the  general  public 

t 

f 

LU —> 

O 
CE 
Q_ 

^eQueN* 

F BH 

bfz 

N FO 
Social Research 

F h l AO 

The  research  institutes  involved  in  the  project  adopt  a  variety  of 
approaches  and  procedures  in order to find  answers  to the many  questions 
arising.  Each  project  has its own focus  and selects  the particular  methods 
most  suitable  for its purpose.  This  may be monitoring  skill  trends,  prompt 
identification  of  critical  changes  (such  as  technological 
innovations), 
observing  trends  in competitor  countries,  signalling  the need  for action on 
behalf of specific occupational groups, occupations or sectors of industry  and 
preparing practice-related  recommendations  for action  (see  Figure 3). 

Combining  the various  projects  in  a  network  from  the outset  makes  it 
possible to obtain an overview of the broad range of skill trends from  different 
standpoints.  The  function  of  the  FreQueNz  network  project  is  to  bring 
together  the various  research  findings  and resulting  possible  courses  of 
action.  Networking  simplifies the task of early  identification. 

28 

Early  identification  of  skill  needs  in  Europe 

Figure 3.  The  project  utilises different  methods for  monitoring 

different  areas and  linking the results  obtained 

Different  levels  of analysis  by means of different  methods and approaches 
are  characteristics  of the network,  making  It possible 
to  attain a complementary  picture  ol future  qualification  needs 

Trends  in  competitor 
countries 

Timely  recognition 
of critical  changes 

Monitoring 
skill trends 

Early  warning 
of  need  for action 

Generating  practice-related 
recommendations  for  action 

Methodology 

Research  into  early  identification  of  qualification  needs  is  concerned  with 
monitoring  and  assessing  critical  factors  that  lead  to  change.  Studies, 
observations  and  analyses  are  directed  to  predicting  future  trends  in 
employers'  skill  requirements  in  order  to  avoid  any  underskilling  of  people 
currently  in employment  or future jobseekers.  By selecting suitable  methods 
and  levels  of  investigation  it  is  possible  to  make  predictions  for  specific 
occupations,  branches  of  industry  and  occupational  fields  (Figure  4).  An 
important  aspect  is  the  combination  of  qualitative  and  quantitative  analysis 
for  the  early  identification  of  training  needs,  future  qualification  and  skill 
requirements and the assessment of developments  in numerical terms. Early 
identification  of  future  qualification  needs  benefits  not  just  employees  and 
employers but all those concerned with continuing training in training centres 
and with vocational training  policy. 

The projects  of the  partner  institutes  and other  bodies within the  research 
network  cover  a broad  spectrum  ranging  from  direct  monitoring  of  changes 
at  the  workplace  to  international  comparisons  of  early  recognition  in 
competitor  countries.  The  breadth  of  research  coverage  and  the  variety  of 
levels  at  which  it  is  conducted  is  designed  to  answer  questions  of  major 
significance for the future design of education  and training research. 

Early  identification  ol  qualification  needs  in Germany  -
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

29 

Figure 4.  A feature  of the  research  network  is its plurality  of  scientific 
approaches. The overall  picture  is  made  up of  a  multiplicity 
of  individual  project  results  obtained  at different  levels of 
occupational  research  using  a variety of  methods  which 
complement  one  another 

W 

Firm 

j 
| 

Society 

^ 

f  Macroeconomic  trends 

« 

H 

e.g. 
•  Workplace 
•  Activity 
•  Requirement  level 
•  Organisational 

structure 

•  Design of  working 

system 
Business  process 
Necessary  skill 
profiles 

eg. 
•  Demographic  trends 
•  Work  biographies 
•  Demand for  goods 

and services 

•  Propensity to  work 
•  Altered  conditions 
(e.g. working time, 
flexible  working) 

e.g. 
•  Labour  market trends 
•  Employment  change 
by sector  of  industry 

•  Key technologies, 

inventions 

•  International trends, 

globalisation 

e.g. 

e.g. 

e.g. 

Workplace  monitoring 
(Expert)  interviews 
Business  process 
analysis 
Studying change in 
activity  (former/ 
present/future) 

Analysis  of  consumer 
behaviour 
Studying 
demographic  trends 
Taking account of 
propensity to  work 
and  occupational 
choice 

Statistical  surveys 
and  analyses 
Monitoring  the  labour 
market 
Analysis  of  future 
scenarios 

2 - 5  years 

5 - 10  years 

Time horizon for  early  identification  of  qualification  needs 

Changes  at a  macroeconomic  level  indicate developments  that  are driven 
mainly  by  market  forces  and  competition.  Growing  internationalisation  and 
globalisation  also  mean  that  developments  in  other  countries  become  of 
growing  significance  since  technological  innovation  or  trends  observed  in 
neighbouring  countries  can  influence  national  and  regional  labour  markets. 

By  looking  at  society  as  a  whole  for  purposes  of  early  qualification 
identification  one  can  include  factors  such  as  demographic  structure  -  an 
ageing  population, for  example  - and other  social  factors  such  as  consumer 
behaviour. 

Another  level  of  research  is  the  firm,  where  new  occupations  can  be 
observed for the first time  in practice. Observation  is, of  course, only  possible 
when the  new  occupation  already  exists, but since  occupations  rarely  alter  in 

30 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

a short time to such an extent that every gesture and all the logical connections 
are entirely new, process and workplace monitoring make it possible to include 
in  the  analysis  and  assessment  changes  and  innovations  that  are  already 
foreseeable.  To  make  sure  of  obtaining  information  concerning  new  skill 
requirements as early as possible, firms in the forefront of innovation and using 
cutting-edge  technology  are  frequently  chosen  for  study.  When  analysing 
occupational changes within a firm, comparisons between firms can often help 
to  judge  whether  emerging  types  of  occupation  will  really  become  so 
widespread as to call for training measures or whether they are merely special 
cases  resulting from the circumstances  of a particular firm. 

Already at the conceptional stage of the project, the partners consider their 
integration  into  the  network.  This  contributes  to  a  more  complete  and 
balanced  overall  picture  of  skill  trends  than  would  be  gained  if  individual 
results  were  to  be  looked  at  in  isolation. The  fact  that  the  project  partners 
exchange  information,  the  different  research  methods  used  and  the 
combining of results also helps to give a more complete view of future trends, 
making  findings  as to  trends  observed  and  predictions  made  more  reliable 
and minimising the  risk of  incorrect forecasting.  Using a network to combine 
findings  from  various  sources  obtained  at  different  levels  and  by  different 
methods  thus  provides  a varied  view  of  newly  emerging  skill  requirements 
from several  standpoints. 

2.3.  Objectives 
A strategic  aim  common to all the partners  in the  project  is to  identify  future 
skill requirements  at an early stage and to make recommendations for action 
based on observation of changes taking place  in the world of work. 

(a)  Observation of social, structural, technical and organisational drivers for 
occupational  change,  structuring  principal  indicators  and  combining 
results as to future skill trends. 

The chief drivers for new skill requirements stem from technological, work 
organisation  or  demographic  change  and  the  growing  importance  of 
information technology and the knowledge society. They bring with them new 
kinds of jobs with new skill profiles due to product innovation, the introduction 
of  major  new  technologies,  business  developments  and  market  changes. 
Also  very  important  in  this  respect  is  the  introduction  of  new  production 
processes that  may fuse activities that were formerly  separate, as happens, 
for  instance,  when  skilled  IT  occupations  are  restructured.  Changes  in 
demand,  too  -  such  as  the  increased  demand  for  health  and  wellness 
services  - mean new services  calling for people with the necessary skills. 

Early  identification  of  qualification  needs  in Germany  -
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

31 

(b)  Cooperation  within  the  research  network  to  enhance  current  research 

transparency 
The  idea  underlying  networking  for  the  early  identification  project  is  not 
only to link together the project  partners and other  research collaborators  but 
also to reach out to other bodies and interested individuals. By combining the 
results  of  research 
the  process  of  making 
recommendations  for  action to  help shape a viable  future vocational  training 
system. The central  node in the  network  is the communications  centre  which 
promotes  research  efficiency  by avoiding  duplication  of work  and  enhancing 
transparency.  Unlike  isolated  individual  projects,  networked  research  allows 
the partners to work together while  adopting different  standpoints. 

it  is  hoped  to  simplify 

(c)  Strategic  aim:  to design  a  viable early  identification  system  for the  future 
The  various  early  identification  projects  with  their  results  gained  in 
different fields together contribute to the creation of a dynamic  future-oriented 
forecasting  system  (see  Figure  5).  The  FreQueNz  research  network  aims 
with  its  results  to  assist  in creating  an  innovative  vocational  training  system 
by signalling future trends and possible forms of action. Those involved in the 
vocational  training  field  will  be  provided  here  and  now  with  significant 
pointers  to  the  likely  skill  requirements  for  tomorrow  which  they  can  take 
account  of in their  planning. The  results of the  project  have a time  horizon of 
between  one  and five  years. 

Early  information  concerning  future  skill  requirements  can  help to  prepare 
industry  for  market  ups  and downs  in certain  sectors  or  occupations  making 
it possible to  react  rapidly to changes  as they  occur. The  research derives  its 
dynamism  from  the  fact  that  the  individual  projects  ask  their  questions 
concerning  future  skill  requirements  from  different  standpoints  and  process 
the  results obtained at the different  levels for  use  in the  initial  and  continuing 
vocational training  system. 

Results  of  research  help to  answer the following  questions: 

•  Which  specific  occupations  or  occupational  groups  will  be  affected  by 

changes  in working  practices? 

•  Which  specific  skills will be needed  in future? 
•  Which  skills will  be  needed  when? 
•  Which  specific  available training  is suitable for  meeting the  need? 
•  How  can  skills  be  constantly  developed  to  keep  pace  with  changing 

requirements? 

32 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure  5.  The  networked combination  of  project  partners' results 

creates a dynamic  and future-oriented  early  identification 
system 

Early identification  of skill needs as a future-oriented strategy  in training  research 

Research fields 

Objective 

Usability 

Initial and continuing 
training  market 

Labour  market 

I I I* 

Gainful  employment/ 
competence  development 

Governance and shaping 
of  policy 

III» 

Designing  innovative 

education  research 

Coping  better 

with market  turbulences 

^reQue^ 

Facilitates 

to change 

Responding  rapidly 

Experience in 
competitor  countries 

mat 

the  development of 

options for  action 

Structure and shape of 
the occupational  landscape 

Making  recommendations 

for action 

The network is intended to bundle findings from  different fields 
of  research to facilitate the development  of options for action in time 

(d)  Data  transfer:  Using  different  techniques  and  media  for  maximum 

dissemination 
The  results  so  far  obtained  by  the  individual  projects  present  a  varied 
picture of differing occupational scenarios showing that skill requirements are 
in the  process  of  rapid change thus  calling for  innovative  strategies  in  initial 
and continuing vocational training. 

Processed  results  are  communicated  via  the  www.frequenz.net  website 
which  interested  users  can  access  to  obtain  information  about  the  various 
research  activities  and  gather  relevant  data. This  platform  also  has  links to 
other  bodies and early  identification  projects. 

Research  results  are  also  regularly  published  in  the  form  of  newsletters 
and in the 'Qualifikationen  erkennen  - Berufe gestalten' (Recognising  skills -
shaping occupations)  book series which  now includes  eight volumes. 

Early identification of qualification needs in Germany ­

the FreQueNz research network 

33 

Figure 6. Research results are made available on the FreQueNz 

website as well as in printed form 

FreQueNz uses online and print media for lhe transfer of results 

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http://www.frequenz.net 

In addition to the internet platform 
FreQueNz, there are print media for the 
transfer of results. 
Six volumes of the FreQueNz series of 
books 'Recognising Qualifications ­
Designing Occupations' have been 
published till now. More recent results 
are published as Newsletter articles. 

Newsletter 

Book publications 

FreQueNz organises conferences and workshops in order to make known 

its findings and to contact selected user groups. In June 2001, for example, 
a major conference under the title 'Qualification offensive: Early identification 
of qualification needs for future­oriented action' with information stands was 
organised to present and discuss research findings. This was attended by 
over 400 people from the world of politics and industry, professional and 
trade associations, and training organisations. 

FreQueNz results are also presented at industrial fairs and similar events 

such as the Education Fair held in Cologne in 2002 (2). 

(2) This is the largest German exhibition and information event concerned with schools, teaching, 

teaching aids and continuing training. 

34 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

3.  Results  from  the  research  network 

Changes  in work  are triggered  by a variety  of factors, among  which  are the 
development  of  new  products  and  services,  new  production  processes,  the 
introduction  of  more  efficient  information  and  communication  systems, 
market  turbulence  or  social  trends.  Many  of  these  factors  lead  to  the 
emergence of  new occupational fields that call for  particular skills. 

The  FreQueNz  project  partners  have  already  looked  at  a  great  many 
different factors and their  impact and produced findings  in a number of fields 
covering  a broad  spectrum  of  skill trends.  Results  on the following  subjects 
are currently  available: 
•  Changes  in skill requirements  for the  low-skilled 
•  An analysis of job advertisements  in printed and on-line  media 
•  Recording  firms'  skill  requirements  in  various  sectors  and  occupational 

fields.  Examples from the car industry  and retail trade 

•  Skill trends  in the  logistics  sector 
•  Personal services  in health, wellness  and teaching 
•  Comparisons  of best  practice  in OECD countries with  examples 
•  Case  studies  drawn  from  practice  in  selected  areas  of  activity  (facilities 

management,  call centres  and technical  office work) 
•  The shortage  of skilled personnel  in  IT occupations 
•  New occupational  skills  in  ICT occupations 
•  Changing  skills in the  retail trade 
•  New skill requirements  in the multimedia sector 
•  Analysis of continuing training  provision 
•  Reporting  systems:  early  identification  of  skill  trends,  skills  report,  skill 

structure  report and the 'QUO' on-line skills development  system. 
Results 

research  website 
(www.frequenz.net).  We shall  now  look  at six  examples  taken from  projects 
concerned with the above subjects. 

available 

currently 

are 

the 

on 

Early  identification  of qualification  needs for  disadvantaged 
groups 

The  'Early  identification  of  qualification  needs  for  disadvantaged  groups' 
project  of  the  Vocational  Training  Research  Department  of  the  Bavarian 
Employers'  Associations  (bfz)  looks  at  new  skill  requirements  for  the  low-
skilled.  While  market  demand  for  skilled  manpower  is  steadily  growing, the 
next few years still will see many jobs occupied by people with so-called lower 
skills  (some  12-16%  of  all  jobs  in  2010).  These  are  mainly  semi-skilled 
occupations  which  do  not  require  any  special  initial  training. Studies  carried 

Early  identification  of qualification  needs  in Germany  -
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

35 

out  among  smaller  firms  under  the  research  project  have  shown  that  skills 
demanded  are  no  longer  determined  by  the  job  itself  and  the  various  tasks 
involved,  but  increasingly  by  the  surrounding  working  system.  Even  simpler 
jobs  are  now  regarded  as  skilled  occupations  that  are  part  of  the  operating 
working  system  and  no  longer  performed  in  isolation  from  more  complex 
processes.  The  emergence  of  new  skill  requirements  in  the  occupational 
areas looked at was triggered by changes in work organisation (see Figure 7). 
The results of this research shed a new light on low-skilled occupations as, 
contrary  to  previous  practice,  such  workers  now  require  some  form  of 
qualification. 

Figure 7.  New skill  requirements for  the  low-skilled  result  from 

changes  in work  organisation  in which  individual  activities 
become  integrated  into  the overall  operating  environment 

b fz  Early identification  of skill  needs for disadvantaged  groups 

Requirements for the low-skilled have changed 

_ / ^ , _ /'  " _  Early  identification  of skill  needs 

J ^J 

for  disadvantaged  groups 

Employees' skill  profiles  are  no longer  determined 
by the  job  but  by the  working  environment 

Even simple  jobs  are regarded as skilled:  process 
support  in trade  and  industry  (cooperation  of trades) 

Process-oriented  skilling  opens the way 
for  integration  of the  disadvantaged 

Employees'  skill  profiles are  no longer  determined 
by the job  but by the working environment 

isw 

Skill  requirements 

for  Vocational  Training 

Analysis  of  IT job advertisements  in printed  and  on-line  media 
In its 'Analysis of job advertisements  in printed and on-line media' the  Federal 
(BIBB)  monitors  and  analyses 
Institute 
advertisements  in a range of  newspapers  and the  Internet,  concentrating  on 
selected  types  of  occupations  in  the  IT  occupations  such  as  those  in 
information  technology  with  a view to  obtaining  information  on  qualifications 
and  skills  that  are  desirable  or  a  sine  qua  non  for  the  jobs  concerned.  The 
jobs  looked  at  were  either  core  occupations  in  the  IT  sector  such  as 

36 

Early  identification  of  skill  needs  in  Europe 

programmer,  network  specialist or the like or new types of job without  as yet 
a fixed designation  (see  Figure 8). 

Apart  from  recording  the  numbers  of  such  advertisements,  an  important 
aspect  of the  project  was the  subsequent  questioning  of  advertisers.  In this 
second  step  employers  were  asked  whether  they  had  found  a  suitable 
candidate  for  the job  and  which  of  the  qualifications  and  skills  listed  in  the 
advertisement were absolutely  necessary. The results obtained showed inter 
alia that  in some  50% of cases  a university  qualification  was  not  absolutely 
necessary, although asked for  in the  advertisement. 

The  analysis  of  job  advertisements  yielded  useful  information  regarding 
the structure of the jobs concerned as well as the actual qualifications or skills 
needed for the position offered. The method used by the Federal  Institute for 
Vocational Training  has been employed for other occupational fields. 

Figure 8. An  analysis  of  job  advertisements  yields  useful  information 

concerning the skills and qualifications  actually  needed 

B Î BB  Analysis of job advertisements  in printed 

and  on-line media 

bfz 

New skills generated by innovative 
information technologies 

Results for the IT/ multimedia  sector (A) 

Between 1995 to 2000 the  proportion  of firms 
in which new information technologies have 
generated  new fields of occupational activity has 
increased from  41 %  to 56%. 

Eight out of ten of these firms  expect this trend 
to continue into 2003. 

In 2000 most firms said that the  greatest 
increase in  skilled jobs was in the  IT sector. 

When questioned,  advertisers  asking for 
a university qualification admitted that in some 
50%  of cases it was not really necessary 

Job profiles  advertised  tor IT sector (a) 

0% 

5%  10%  15%  20%  25% 

IT core  occupations: 

Programmer 

Network  specialist 

IT  consultant/salesman 

Other  IT core occupations 

Hybrid IT occupations 

> 

I 

1 

I

1 

11% 

I 

I 

1 

1 

I

II 

15» 

'New'  occupations 

7% 

[  23% 

21% 

2y. 

(A)  Reference enterprise system  2000, n=876 
(B)  Job ads. analysis  2000 (n=2420);  IT-core occupations ace. to  BA classification: data processing specialists (7740-
7749); hybrid  IT occupations,  non-core  IT occupations, new  IT occupations: no official  BA coding, mostly across 
occupational classification. 

Early  identification  of qualification  needs  in Germany  -
the  FreQueNz  research  network 

37 

.3.  System  for  regularly  monitoring  firms' skill  requirements 

The  German  Employers'  Committee  on  Vocational  Training  (KWB) 
in 
collaboration  with  the  Research  Institute  for  Vocational  Education  and 
Training  in the  Crafts  Sector  at the  University  of Cologne  (FBH)  carried out a 
survey  of firms' skill  requirements  in which  1 545 firms were questioned. 

Evaluation of the responses yielded a large number of indicators for new skill 
requirements.  In  all, 45% of  comments  referred  to  specialist  skills, with  data-
processing  and computer  literacy  mentioned  most  often. The greatest  number 
of comments  (55%)  related to general  skills  such  as customer-orientation,  the 
ability to communicate, independence, team-work ability, flexibility, mobility  and 
willingness  to  learn  and  work  hard,  quality-consciousness  and  decisiveness. 
This  showed  that  in  addition  to  sound  technical  training,  more  informal  skills 
were  becoming  increasingly  important  for  the  firms  concerned,  and  are  now 
referred to  more often than specialist  skills. 

The  results  of  the  survey  provided  useful  information  for  the  updating  of 
skilled occupation  categories,  the  need to  create  new  ones,  additional  skills 
that  should  be  included  in  continuing 
needed  and  the  subject-matter 
vocational training  and  school curricula. 

Figure  9.  A survey  of firms showed  that  demand  for  general  skills 

is exceeding  that for  specialist  skills 

KWB  /  FBH 
System  for regular  observation  of firms' skill  requirements 

Results of enterprise surveys 

A total of  1 545 firms  representing  a varied  mix  of  sectors 
were questioned  as to  their  qualification  requirements 

Most frequently  mentioned were: 
Technical qualifications: specialist  DP/IT for  various 
applications 

Key qualifications: Customer-orientation, ability  to 
communicate,  independence, cost  consciousness, 
team-working, flexibility,  mobility, willingness  to  learn/to 
perform,  quality-consciousness, decision-making  ability 

Ways mentioned  for  meeting these requirements: 
•  Updating  existing training  occupation  profiles 
•  Creating  new skilled  occupations 
•  Developing  additional  skills 
•  Continuing  training and  instruction 

45%  of skills  mentioned  were  technical 
qualifications  and  55%  key  qualifications 

Technical 

Key 

qualifications 

Source:  KWB, ed.: Dauerbeobachtungs 
system der betrieblichen Qualifikations 
entwicklung (System for permanent 
Observation of industrial qualification 
developments), final report. Bonn 2001 
(see also: www.frequenz.net). 

38 

Early  identification  ol skill needs  in  Europe 

3.4.  Regular  monitoring  of skill trends for early  recognition  of  changes 

at the workplace 

The ADeBar project is concerned with the regular monitoring of skill trends in 
various  sectors of activity with a view to early identification of changes at the 
workplace.  Monitoring  is  both  quantitative  and  qualitative  and  is carried  out 
jointly  with  the  Fraunhofer  Institute  for  Industrial  Engineering  (FhlAO)  and 
Infratest  Sozialforschung  (Social  Research).  The  qualitative  evaluation  of 
case  studies  is  performed  initially  by  the  Fraunhofer  Institute  with  Infratest 
using the results as the basis for quantitative  analysis. 

The  example  given  here  concerns  the  skills  required  by  warehouse 
employees  in  the  logistics  sector.  Workplace  studies  and  subsequent 
quantitative  surveys  using  questionnaires  sent  out  to  firms  show  that  the 
traditional  activities  of  specialist  warehouse  employees  such  as  moving 
goods, allocating  storage space and  handling  incoming  and outgoing  goods 
documentation, are changing  and giving  way to  new tasks  characterised  by 
a  reduction  in  physical  work,  the  use  of  information  and  communications 
technology,  an  increase  in  activities  requiring  specialist  knowledge,  and 
commercial  tasks. A new skilled  occupation  profile  is emerging, namely  that 
of  'warehouse  process  controller',  involving  new skills  such  as the  ability  to 
use  special  computer  programmes  alongside  others  drawn  from  more 
traditional  occupations  such  as  warehouseman,  packer,  industrial  clerk  etc. 
(see  Figure 10). 

3.5.  Identifying  emerging qualifications  for the early  recognition of 

skill trends 

In  its  'Identifying  emerging  qualifications  for  the  early  recognition  of  skill 
trends' project the Institute of Structural  Policies and Economic  Development 
Halle-Leipzig  (isw)  has  studied  the  expansion  of  activity  in  the  wellness 
sector  in response  to the  heavy  demand for such services  due to an ageing 
population  and older  people's  greater  concern for health. 

The  findings  show  that  the  increased  number  of  jobs  is  leading  to  the 
emergence  of  new  occupations  that  develop  into  independent  skilled 
occupations. The  project  came  to the conclusion  that  the  new  qualifications 
and  skills  in  the  wellness  field  tend  to  be  complex  and  multivalent  (see 
Figure  11).  They  include  aspects  of  personality  and  character  such  as 
enjoying  working  with  people,  a  sound  basic  anatomical  and  medical 
knowledge, counselling skill and commercial/business  acumen. Specialising, 
for instance, to become a skilled relaxation therapist also calls for knowledge 
and  skills  in  massage  and  hydrotherapy  and  in  such  specialist  fields  as 
Shiatsu and  Feldenkrais therapy. 

Early identification of qualification  needs in Germany  -
the FreQueNz  research  network 

39 

Figure  10.  Workplace studies and quantitative  surveys  by question­
naire show  demand for new types of warehousing  skills 

FhlAO 
Institut Arbeitswirtschaft 
und Organisation 

NFO 
Intrates) Sozialforschung 

Regular  close-to-the-job  monitoring  of skill 

S— 
D e B a r> 

requirements  for early  identitication  of changes 
at the workplace and within enterprises 

New skills for warehouse  employees 
in the logistics  sector 

Traditional  activities of skilled 
warehousemen: 
•  Moving goods 
•  Allocation of storage place 
•  Handling incoming and outgoing 

goods  documentation 

Merchandise  information 
and distribution 

u Planning, organisation, 

calculation 

New activities: 
•  Less physical work 
•  Use of ICT 
•  More knowledge-intensive 

sub-activities 

•  More commercial tasks 

Shipment handling and 
merchandise  movements 

Item flow,  auditing of 
accounts, controlling 

A new  qualification  profile  emerges, e.g. 
of a warehouse  process controller 
(a  blend of commercial and  industrial  skills) 

i sw 

A new  qualification  profile 
emerges,  e.g. of a warehouse 
process  controller 

Requirements are: 

New skills include ability to use 
special computer  programmes 
and to handle databases 

Skills originating from various 
other job profiles such as: 
warehouse management 
specialist, skilled packer, 
industrial clerk, clerk in wholesale 
and export trade, dispatcher 

Figure  11.  The  expanding  wellness  sector  is generating  considerable 

demand for persons with core skills as the  basis for further 
specialisation  in different  types of therapy 

I SW 

Trend qualifications  as a basis for  early 

identification  of skill trends 

An example of the wellness  sector 
General skill requirements: 

Personal and behavioural attitudes (enjoying working 
with people, marked sense of responsibility, etc.) 
•  Sound basic knowledge of anatomy and medicine 

Counselling skills, commercial and business 
management skills 

Complex requirements: 
Relaxation therapist 
Movement and fitness therapist 
Meditation therapist 
Wellness consultant 

a  Life consultant 

isw 

Relaxation therapist: an open-struclured qualification 
that can be built on at any time and affords wide 
possibilities for specialisation 

Examples ol possible 
special ¡salions 

su 

| 

¡J  Aqua Lomi  |  Ct>i Yang  | 

Core 
qualifications 

General specialised  knowledge  and skills  (massage 
techniques, hydrotherapy, elc.) 

Basic medical, physiological, psychological, 
pedagogical  and commercial  knowledge 

Relaxation  therapist  is one example ol 
an open-structured  qualification  profile 
that can be used as the  basis for specialisation 

40 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

When studying the skill requirements for a relaxation therapist it was found 
that  the  most  appropriate  qualification  was open-structured  so that  those 
acquiring the necessary basic knowledge and general skills could then go on 
to extend their scope with specialist skills. 

3.6.  Skill  requirements  in OECD countries - identification, 

analysis and  realisation 

Internationalisation,  globalisation  and  common  markets  ensure 
that 
developments  in  other  OECD  member  countries  also  have  an  impact  in 
Germany. The project of the Berlin Social Science  Research Center's (WZB) 
'Study  of  skill  requirements  in  OECD  countries'  project 
into 
developments  there  so  as to  gain  information  concerning  skill  trends  in 
Germany and the possibilities for adopting best practice from other countries. 

looks 

Figure  12.  International  comparisons  help to foresee future trends and 

enable best practice to be learnt from other  countries 

W ZB 

Skill requirements  in OECD countries: 

identification,  analysis and  implementation 

WM 

Forecasting skill  requirements 

Study of 
Trends in occupations and skills 
Ways and means of meeting  identified skill  requirements 

Methods 
Cross-country  comparative econometric  forecasts 
Qualitative  case studies 

Some exampies of findings 
Demand for low-skilled  workers is declining in all OECD countries. 
Demand for skilled specialists for the  IT and health sectors is 
rising in the USA. 
In Ireland and the UK demand for  university  qualifications and 
medium-qualifications  is on the increase. 

What remains to be done? 
Regular  updating of forecasts, studies on implementation of job 
rotation and application within  firms 

Forecasting  skill  requirements 

Methods and results in international  comparison 
Shortage of skilled  labour - an international  phenomenon 

Implementation 

Job rotation: an innovative 
instrument ol  addressing 
skill requirements identified 
in EU enterprises 
How to become 'pluriactive'? 
Adjusting available skilling 
options to the needs of 
people who combine two 
occupational activities 
Applying solutions in small 
and medium sized firms 

The  study  covers  occupational  and skill  trends  and ways  and means of 
meeting  skill  requirements.  The  methods  used  include  comparative 
econometric  forecasting and quality case studies. 

Early identification of qualification needs in Germany ­

the FreQueNz research network 

41 

The results obtained show that demand for low­skilled labour is declining 
in almost all OECD countries. Demand for skilled manpower was found to be 
on the increase in the United States, particularly in the IT and health sectors 
(see Figure 12). In addition to skill forecasting, which shows, for example, 
that the shortage of skilled labour in small and medium­sized enterprises is 
an international phenomenon, consideration of ways and means of meeting 
skill requirements plays an important role in the project. This includes such 
aspects as job rotation and possibilities that may be utilised by smaller firms. 
The examples quoted here and other project findings are set out in detail 

in the publications listed below and on the www.frequenz.net website. 

Bibliography 

Bärwald, H.; Meifort, Β. Gesundheit, Wellness, Wohlbefinden ­ Personen­
bezogene Dienstleistungen im Fokus der Qualifikationsentwicklung. 
Bullinger, H.­J., ed. FreQueNz Vol. 4, Bielefeld, 2001. 

Bullinger, H.­J., ed. Qualifikationen erkennen ­ Berufe gestalten. FreQueNz 

Vol. 1, Bielefeld, 2000. 

Bullinger, H.­J., ed. Qualifizierungsoffensive: Bedarf frühzeitig erkennen ­
zukunftsorientiert handeln. Conference proceedings, Stuttgart, 2001. 
Bullinger, H.­J., ed. Qualifizierungsoffensive: Bedarf frühzeitig erkennen ­

zukunftsorientiert handeln. FreQueNz Vol. 6, Bielefeld, 2001. 

Bullinger, H.­J.; Schömann, Klaus, eds. Qualifikationen von morgen ­ ein 

deutsch­französischer Dialog. FreQueNz Vol. 5, Bielefeld, 2001. 

Gidion, G.; Kuwan, H.; Schnalzer, K.; Waschbüsch, E. Spurensuche in der 

Arbeit ­ ein Verfahren zur Erkundung künftiger Qualifikationserfordernisse. 
Bullinger, H.­J., ed. FreQueNz Vol. 2, Bielefeld, 2000. 

Gülker, S.; Hilbert, C; Schömann, Κ. Lernen von den Nachbarn. Bullinger, 

H.­J., ed. FreQueNz Vol. 3, Bielefeld, 2000. 

Schmidt, S.L. Früherkennung als zukunftsorientierte Strategie der Bildungs­
forschung. BWP­Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis, Vol. 1, 2002, 
p. 22­24. 

Qualifications  for the  future 

Mike Coles, The Qualification and Curriculum Authority (OCA),  London, 
United Kingdom 

Early recognition  of qualification  needs has been  a problem  for the UK for many 
years.  Barriers  include  such  things  as  poor  labour  market  data  supply,  long 
gestation  times  for  the  development  of  qualifications  and  weak  methods  for 
collecting and analysing information  about future  qualifications  needs. This paper 
concentrates on the early stages of the development of a new methodology, based 
on scenario planning, for maintaining an up-to-date set of qualifications  that serve 
individuals, employers and the economy well. 

The  research  described  in  this  paper  involves  using  skills  needs  analysis  to 
develop a qualification or certificate that will act as a proxy for these skills. In other 
words,  the  development  of  a  modern  national  qualification  is  the  goal  of  the 
research and not just the recognition of future skills. 

i. 

Introduction 

Early  recognition  of  qualification  needs  has  been  a  problem  for  the  UK  for 
many years. There are barriers to building qualifications that recognise skills 
that are needed in the workplace now and in the not-too-distant future. These 
barriers include such things as poor labour market data supply, long gestation 
times for the development  of  qualifications  and weak  methods  for  collecting 
and  analysing  information  about  future  qualifications  needs.  This  paper 
concentrates  on the early stages of the development  of a new  methodology, 
based  on  scenario  planning,  for  maintaining  an  up-to-date  set  of 
qualifications  that serve individuals, employers  and the economy  well. 

Most  readers  will  appreciate  the  dangers  of  using  words  such  as 
'qualification' in a European context.  In this paper 'qualification' is used in the 
sense  of  a certificated  outcome  of the  assessment  of  learning.  In the  UK  a 
qualification  certificate  does  not  necessarily  show  that  a  person  can  do  a 
particular  job.  However,  in  the  context  of  this  paper  use  of  the  word 
'qualification' will be restricted to certificates  in the occupational area and it is 
reasonable  to  assume  that  a  person  gaining  a  certificate  has  shown  the 
capacity  to  perform  certain  tasks.  The  research  described  in  this  paper 

Qualifications  for the  future 

43 

involves  using skills  needs  analysis to  develop  a certificate  that  will  act  as  a 
proxy  for  these  skills.  In  other  words  the  development  of  a  modern  national 
qualification  is the goal  of the  research  and  not just the  recognition  of  future 
skills. 

It  is  widely  appreciated  (Leney  and  Coles,  2001)  that  major  benefits  for 
individuals,  employment  and  the  economy  can  flow  from  a  qualification 
system  that  is  clear,  helpful  and  efficient.  A  qualification  needs  analysis 
process  is  essentially  a  modernising  process  -  a  way  of  making  sure  that 
users  of  qualifications  - and the  framework  of  qualifications  -  feel  confident 
about the content  and structure of qualifications  and the relationship  between 
them.  The  logic  then  continues  ...  if  qualifications  recognise  the  right  skills, 
and people are inclined to achieve the qualifications, then a positive  effect on 
the career  of the individual, skills supply to the economy, the economy  of the 
sector  and international  competitiveness  will follow. 

2.  The  UK  approach  to  qualification  needs 

The  UK  qualification  system  is  based  on  certain  well-established  and  well-
defined  qualifications.  These  have  been  developed  and  managed  within 
universities  and  the  professions  and  it  is  probably  true  that  even  accepting 
recent government  activities to regulate the qualifications  system, the  UK has 
a qualifications  system  that  is devolved  and  voluntarist.  Government  action 
has  been  aimed  at  rationalising  the  system;  maintaining  the  demand  of 
assessments  and  creating  a  recognition  system  for  those  who  have  poor 
access 
the 
government  has  been  attempting  to  arrest  the  rapid  decline  in  the  use  of 
apprenticeship  as training  and qualification. 

to  qualifications,  such  as  unemployed  youth.  Recently 

Within  the  EU,  the  methods  (Sellin,  2001) for  early  recognition  of  skills 

needs  include: 
•  examination  of job  specific  qualification  needs; 
•  examination  of  individual  occupations; 
•  comparative  qualifications  analysis  (cutting  across  occupations); 
•  qualification  analysis  at the  level  of  society  as a whole. 

The  UK  engages  in  all  of  these  methods  to  some  degree.  There  is  an 
infrastructure  of  organisations  including  the  Learning  and  Skills  Councils, 
National  Training  Organisations  (now  Sector  Skills  Councils)  that  work  with 
specific  occupational  groups  to  ascertain  skills  needs.  The  work  of  these 
in 
bodies  is  supplemented  with  analyses  from  specialist  researchers 
universities and other  expert centres. The UK government commissions  work 

44 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

on  how  occupations  might  change  in the  future  and conducts  research  into 
qualification types. Periodically the government conducts a national review of 
qualifications,  recently  we  have  engaged  in  debate  over  the  qualifications 
needs  of  16-18  year  olds  and  those  in  higher  education.  We  are  about  to 
have a debate of the qualifications  needed for upper secondary  education in 
England. 

Experts  charged with  carrying  out  reviews  on qualifications  are  invariably 
asked to look to the future; the importance of developing highly skilled people 
to guarantee the future productivity  of the  UK nations is usually emphasised. 
However,  as  we  shall  see  later,  the  practice  of  producing  future-oriented 
qualifications  is highly  problematic. 

How are qualifications  modernised  in the UK? 
There is no generic  needs analysis process that is applied to all qualifications 
across the systems in the UK. Until recently the 'refreshment' of qualifications 
varied  according  to the type  of qualification. The  major  school  qualifications 
were  required  to  shift  in  response  to  political  intent  (e.g.  for  the  main 
qualification taken at the mid-point of upper secondary education the General 
Certificate  of  Secondary  Education  to  be a more  inclusive  qualification  than 
its  predecessor  qualifications).  There  is  great  inertia  in  the  general 
qualifications  system;  this  may  stem  from  the  need  to  maintain  public 
confidence  in  standards,  it  is  also  the  case  that  UK  higher  education 
generally  prefers  a narrowly  specialised  preparation  for a three-year  degree 
course.  Change  to  the  system  therefore  tends  to  be  incremental. 
Occupational  qualifications  have,  for  many  years,  been  continuously 
developed to better meet the needs of users and the market for qualifications 
has  been the  main force  for  change.  However  in the  late  1980's  wholesale 
rationalisation followed a review of occupational qualifications  (Department of 
Education  and  Science  and  the  Manpower  Services  Commission,  1986). 
This  review  was  needed  because  qualifications  had  developed  in  diverse 
ways  and  the  qualifications  system  became  very  complex.  Today 
occupational qualifications  are developed sector  by sector. The  Qualification 
and Curriculum Authority's  (QCA)  accreditation  (1)  regime, coupled  with the 
establishment  of  an  explicit  National  Qualifications  Framework  (NQF),  has 
begun to establish  a common system  and timescale  to revisions  of all types 
of qualifications. 

(')  QCA is a government  agency  that  regulates qualifications  by scrutinising  them against  criteria.  If a 
qualification  meets  QCA's  criteria  it  is  accredited  and  is  admitted  to  the  National  Qualifications 
Framework. 

Qualifications  for the future 

45 

The  system  of  developing  occupational  qualifications  begins  with  the 
development  of  National  Occupational  Standards  (NOS).  These  industry 
standards  are  produced  by  analysing  occupations  in  the  sector;  currently 
over  90%  of  the  UK  workforce  is  covered  by  NOS.  This  is  then  generally 
followed  by functional  analysis that defines the competence that  needs to be 
demonstrated  in  each  job  type  within  the  occupation.  These  competencies 
form the  standards  that  are  used  to  build  qualifications.  National  Vocational 
Qualifications  (NVQs)  use  them  as  building  blocks,  other  vocational 
qualifications  need to  have  demonstrable  links with the standards  if they  are 
to be accredited by QCA and admitted to the  NQF. There  are currently  about 
750  NVQs and  nearly  2000  other  vocational  qualifications. 

3.  The  future  is  a  problem 

Looking  back  for  official  mention  of  building  qualifications  for  the  future 
for  Vocational 
comes 
Qualifications  (NCVQ,  1995): 

from  National  Council 

in  a  1995  statement 

The  analysis  should  go  beyond  simple  reflection  of  existing  practice.  It  should 
address and  incorporate  predicted future  occupational  needs and practices so as to 
permit the skills base of the UK workforce  to be updated and  upgraded. 
A major  review  carried  out  by  NCVQ/SCOTVEC  in  1996  did  not  address 
the future  skilling  issue. This  is surprising  since  one  of the  characteristics  of 
NOS is: 

Ensure that the competence  is broad  enough  to give flexibility  in employment  and 
be capable of adaptation to meet new and emerging occupational patterns. 
It  was  not  until  a  statement  from  QCA  (1999)  that  NOS  were  explicitly 

required to  'take account  of the future  needs  of the  sector',  through: 

•  taking account of technology currently used within the sector; 
•  encouraging the consideration of the sector's anticipated needs; 
•  using innovative ways of capturing the views and needs of the sector. 

However  methods  of  achieving  this  were  not  specified. 
A research  report  produced  for  QCA  (Green  and  Hartley,  1999)  concludes: 

In order  for  future  needs  to  be  seen  as a  priority  and  to  become  embedded  into the 
process and outcomes from the development of National Occupational Standards, QCA 
needs to: 
•  ensure that preferred  tools, methods and processes are clearly identified,  have been 
tested and shown to work, be valuable across a variety of sectors and become part of 
the  funding  criteria  for  the  acceptance  of  tender  documents  and  outcomes  from 
standards and qualification  development  projects; 

46 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

•  develop guidance notes to accompany the tools, methods and processes; 
•  market  the value of capturing  future  requirements to industry bodies, especially in 
demonstrating  how  future  needs  of  the sector  when  captured  can  be  reflected  in 
National Occupational Standards that people currently working in the sector can use. 

More  evidence  of  the  difficulty  of  identifying  future  qualifications  needs 
emerged  from  a  recent  QCA  commissioned  pilot  study  (Green  and  Hartley, 
2000)  that  investigated  the  range  of  techniques  used  by  consultants  to 
identify  qualification  needs  in  different  occupations.  The  results  were 
generally  disappointing  for  those  who  expected  to  see  forward-looking 
analyses.  Many  projects  only  seemed  to  pay  lip  service  to  future-proofing 
qualifications.  Evidence  showed  that  a variety  of  techniques  (see Annex  1) 
were used to determine the competencies to be included in the NOS and that 
there was  little consistency  in the use of these techniques. 

The  government  has  recognised  that  accurately  identifying  future  skills 
and  qualifications  needs  is  fraught  with  methodological  problems.  For 
example  a  recently  convened  expert  group,  the  National  Skills  Task  Force 
(Department for  Education and Employment,  1999)  (2), was asked to provide 
advice on such things as: 
•  the  likely  changes  in the  longer  term  skill  needs  of  the  economy  and the 
extent to which these  needs will be met on the basis of existing trends; 
•  how  best  to  ensure  that  the  education  and  training  system  responds 

effectively  to needs identified. 
Recent research carried out by Wilson  (2001) on behalf of Cedefop states 
that whilst there  has  been a revival  in interest  in future  skills forecasting the 
methods  used  have  focused  on  issues  for  employers  and  often  do  not 
attempt  to  collect  quantitative  data  on  future  skill  requirements.  In  the  UK 
there are many agencies that collate and disseminate information about skills 
and  qualifications  needs,  however  all  this  effort  at  data  gathering  and 
processing still leaves a data problem. The Skills Task Force (Department for 
Education  and  Employment,  1999)  extensively  reviewed  labour  market  and 
skills  information  available  in the  UK.  It found: 

Despite the extraordinary volume of data, there was an almost unanimous opinion 
from  those we consulted  that there was too much data overall, that what there was 
found to be inconsistent and incoherent, and that it was primarily backward looking, 
and of little use in helping  either individuals or providers make sound  judgements 
on future  labour market opportunities and demand. 

(2)  National  Skills Task  Force,  1999, chapter  7  'Informing  the  market -  gaps  in  our  current  approach' 

P87 section  7.35. 

Qualifications  lor the future 

47 

This situation  has been  reported widely  elsewhere.  Focusing  on the  issue 
of future  skills, Haskel and Holt  (1999)  cite the  lack of consistent  quantitative 
information  about  past  skills  patterns  as  a  reason  why  accurate  forecasts 
cannot  now  be made  at this level. 

4.  Researching  improvements 

There  are  changes  in the  UK  that  might  lead to  improvements  in  processes 
for  identifying  future  skills  and  qualifications  needs.  Currently  the  UK  is  a 
restructuring  the  sectoral  bodies  that  play  a  major  role  in  identifying  skills 
needs and qualification  needs. At the same time a relatively  new  organisation 
called the  Learning  and  Skills  Council  is establishing  its  role  (nationally  and 
regionally)  in  identification  of  skills  needs  and  funding  training  schemes  to 
meet  these  needs.  Recently 
the  area  of  developing  background  or 
underpinning knowledge  has received attention. QCA has been consulting on 
the  idea  of  a  Technical  Certificate  that  covers  this  knowledge  and  can  be 
taught off-the-job. These Technical Certificates  have now been developed by 
industry  experts  and, interestingly;  some consultants  have found  it easier  to 
build  in  future-oriented  requirements  into  these  certificates  that  into  the 
National  Occupational  Standards. 

Within QCA procedures are being developed for encouraging a systematic 
identification of the need for a qualification  and there is growing interest in the 
to  qualifications  needs  analysis. 
application  of  scenario  methodology 
Scenario  methodology  was  first  developed  by  businesses.  Its  use  can  be 
traced  to  the  early  seventies  in  the  large  oil  companies  when  they  were 
recoiling from the shock  of the doubling of the  price of crude oil  (Shell, 2000) 
-  the  planning  methods  in use at the time  had failed to take  account of  such 
dynamic  variables  (3).  The  methodology 
involves  the  development  of 
plausible  scenarios  for  10 or 20 years  hence  and the testing  of strategies  for 
achieving  objectives  in the context of these scenarios. The  scenarios  can be 
seen as a kind of  lens or  'wind tunnel' through which  to explore the  potential 
and  detail  of  different  strategies.  The  methodology  does  not  create  a 
convergent tool that provides  a best guess for  a single, inevitable  future, nor 
does  it  provide  a  'best  possible  strategic  approach',  nor  is  it  a derivative  of 
forecasting.  It  is  fundamentally  different  to  other  strategic  tools  and  is  best 
used  alongside  them.  The  distinctiveness  of  scenarios  lies  in  the  way  it 

(3)  For the  latest  developments  in this  area  see  Buchan  and  Roberts  (Financial  Times, 21  Jan  2002). 

48 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

tackles  uncertainty, the  richness  of  the  data  it generates  for  discussion  and 
its capacity to facilitate  'out of the box' thinking. 

include 

Several  applications  of  scenario  methodology  have  been  reported 
recently.  These 
the  United  Nations  (1998),  the  European 
Commission (Bertrand, Gilles et al., 1999) and the Organisation for  Economic 
Cooperation  and  Development  (OECD,  1999).  Some  countries  have  used 
scenario  methodology  to  look  specifically  at  development  of  educational 
systems for  example  New Zealand  (Ministry  of  Education, 2001).  In the  UK, 
the Future Learning Unit (2001) has developed socio-economic  scenarios for 
2020  which  include  an  education  and  training  dimension.  The  QCA  has 
completed a joint project with the  Institute of Education in London looking the 
future  of  vocational  education  and  training  in  the  UK;  this  was  part  of  a 
Europe-wide  project  (van Wieringen  et al., 2001)  commissioned  by  Cedefop 
and the  ETF. (4) 

Strategic planning based on scenario  methodology  is now well known and 
fairly  well  tested  (Schoemaker,  1995).  A  brief  general  description  of 
application  of  the  methodology  is  provided  in Annex  2 for  readers  who  are 
unfamiliar with its structure. 

5.  Ap 

qualification  needs  analysis 

QCAs  Research Team  has been working on the  use of scenario  methods to 
qualification needs analysis for the last two years. The first application was in 
the  financial  services  sector  where  an  element  of  scenario  planning  was 
added to  a sector-led  project  that  aimed to  produce  a  map  of  qualifications 
needed by the financial industries in 10 years time. The second application is 
in  the  transport  sector  and  is  a  more  substantial  application  of  the 
methodology than the first.  Development work is underway  in three transport 
industries to produce a series  of  models for qualifications  frameworks for  10 
years hence. The project is also optimising the ways scenarios might be used 
with industry  stakeholders. 

The  financial  services  and  transport  sectors  are  two  of  the  most  volatile 
sectors in terms of industry changes and emerging skills needs. The financial 
restructuring,  has  been 
services  sector  has  undergone  massive 

(4)  Cedefop: European  Centre for the  Development  of Vocational Training, Thessaloniki, Greece, see: 
www.trainlngvillage.gr,  under  'Scenarios  and  Strategies';  ETF:  European  Training  Foundation, 
Turin,  Italy, see: www.etf.eu.int 

Qualifications for the future 

49 

spearheading  the use of new technologies  and whereas  some  businesses in 
the  sector  are  increasingly  customer-facing  others  are truly  global  in nature. 
The transport  sector was  selected for this  study  because: 
•  it has skills  shortages  (e.g. in local  authorities, rail  middle  managers); 
•  it has  new  national  and  EU regulatory  requirements; 
•  it  is  influenced  by  international  developments  and  some  parts  operate 

internationally; 

•  it has occupations that are  regarded as safety critical or safety significant -
thus placing considerable  importance on the achievement of defined levels 
of  competence; 

•  licensing  is a requirement  in a number  of  key  occupations; 
•  changes  in  the  business  environment  have  led  to  a  high  dependency  on 
outsourced  services  and  a  consequential  need  for  means  to  provide 
assurance  about consistency  of  competency  standards. 
These  features  make  forecasting  qualifications  needs  in  the  sectors 
particularly  difficult  and  in  such  circumstances  scenarios  methods  can  be 
particularly  helpful. In a separate  paper  (5) presented  in this publication  more 
detail is  provided of the transport  project. 

Three problems -  is scenario  methodology  an  answer? 
There  seem  to  be  three  main  problems  associated  with  modernisation  of 
qualifications. The first is the difficulty  of obtaining  unambiguous,  dependable 
and  detailed  evidence  for  the  need  for  change  and  the  second  is  the 
resistance  or  inertia  to  change  within  the  stakeholder  groups. A third  is  the 
difficulty  of  managing  an evolution  from  one  qualifications  model to  another. 
How might  scenario  methods  help with these  problems? 

6. 

The problem of evidence  arises because forecast data gets less  dependable 
as  the  period  of  the  forecast 
is  extended.  Uncertainties  grow  and 
consequentially  decisions  are  not  easy  to  make  with  confidence.  The 
production  of  scenarios  that  have  at their  centre  the  pivot of  uncertainty  can 
extend the  value  of  forecasts  and  increase  confidence  in  a  limited  range of 
outcomes.  Scenarios  also accommodate  main  areas  of  agreement  amongst 

(5)  See Tom  Leney's  paper  in this  volume  on  the  application  of the  methodology  to three  industries  in 

the  UK  transport  sector. 

50 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

experts  about  what  is  likely  to  happen  and what  is  not. This  serves to  raise 
the plausibility  of the different  futures. 

In  their  work  on  transport  scenarios  for  the  UK  in  2012,  Leney  and 
Mackinnon (2002)  have also developed quantitative descriptions of futures to 
complement  qualitative  ones. This  provides  a richness  of  data  types  which 
helps  to  provide  a  more  secure  common  understanding  of  what  each 
scenario  means. This welding together of quantitative  and qualitative data is 
another  major strength of scenario method. 

In summary,  data generated  through  scenario  building  and the  testing  of 
strategies seems to help overcome some significant data problems. However 
the  need  for  good  data  sets  describing  current  labour  markets  and  work 
practices  remains key. 

7. 

qualifications 

The  process  of  developing  the  scenarios  requires  the  involvement  of  key 
experts at several stages and serves as an early warning system for change 
and  predisposes  some  experts  to  the  need  to  look  carefully  at  options  for 
modernisation.  The  building  of  scenarios  can  lower  resistance  to  change 
amongst stakeholder groups because it involves these groups in early stages 
of  the  development  process.  However,  the  method  goes  further  as  a 
consultation  and  dissemination  tool  - the  testing  of  new  qualifications  and 
qualifications  frameworks  against  scenarios  is  proving  to  be  a  particularly 
powerful  method  for  building  consensus.  It  is  the  fact  that  the  method 
generates  models to which people can react that is important.  Each scenario 
is  a  focus  of  attention  that  provides  a  language  which  stakeholders  can 
share. 

There  is  one  aspect  of  scenario  building  work  that  is  potentially  helpful 
with  this  second  problem  -  that  of  identifying  the  precise  nature  of  the 
'drivers'  of  specific  proposals  for  change.  There  is  no  shortage  of  experts 
who are willing to express  an opinion on how a qualification should develop, 
but few express opinions about  how  it  will evolve. One reason for this might 
be  people  worry  about  as  yet  uncertain  influences,  such  as  technological 
developments. Another  is the  difficulty  people  seem  to face  in weighing  up 
which  influences  will  dominate  others  in  years  to  come.  Some  of  these 
influences reinforce one another; others are in tension. Drivers of change do 
not  exist  in  isolation.  Lobby  groups,  public  'champions',  legal  instruments, 
financial backing, communication  infrastructures  may all be part of the driver 

Qualifications  for the  future 

51 

anatomy.  It  is  essential  to  consider  the  nature  of  these  powerful  influences 
on  the  qualification  system  in  an  attempt  to  help  experts  decide  which 
changes  are  likely  to  happen  and  which  ones  are  not.  Experience  of  the 
application  of  scenario  methodology  in  several  projects  has  shown  that 
defining,  as  far  as  possible,  the  nature  of  drivers  for  change  is  a  very 
important  and  useful  process. 

Scenario method seems to have the potential to lower resistance of groups 
with  a  tendency  to  look  for  small,  incremental,  change  processes  and  to 
lengthen the  period  over which  modernisation  is discussed. 

8.  Getting  from  here  to  there 

The  third  problem  is  how  to  manage  the  transition  from  an  existing 
qualification  system  to  a new  one. This  remains  a particularly  difficult  issue. 
It would  be easy  to put too  much store  on the consultative  power  of scenario 
method  and  conclude  that  it  is  likely  to  help  with  managing  transitions. 
However  experience  to  date  shows  that  this  is  not  likely  to  be  the  case. 
People do  not  easily  understand  scenario  methodology  until they  have  used 
it.  It  takes  time  to  fully  appreciate  the  strengths  and  weaknesses  of  the 
method and often  managers  do  not  have the time  required.  In QCA we  have 
decided  that  the  current  scenario  activity  should  lie  outside  our  formal 
accreditation schedules  until it is clear that the  method can be applied easily, 
efficiently  and  adds  value  to  the  modernisation  process.  When  this  is  the 
case  we  will  produce  guidance  for  awarding  bodies  and  industry  bodies  on 
how to  use scenarios  method  in combination  with other  methods. 

9. 

Experience to date of  using scenario  methodology  in the toolbox  of  methods 
for identifying future qualifications  needs  is promising. However  it is too  early 
to  be  sure  that  the  method  is  practical, efficient  and  effective  when  used  in 
the  mainstream  of  methods.  We  need  to  test  the  reactions  of  stakeholders 
coming  'cold' to this  new  and challenging  way  of  looking  at the future. 

The  issue  of  welding  scenarios  method  to  other  processes  needs  to  be 
addressed.  There 
is  little  research  evidence  that  suggests  particular 
combinations  of methods  are best  suited to particular  contexts. There  is also 
a particular problem with engaging  managers in the process of integrating the 
method  into current  strategic  approaches. 

52 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

The  initiation  of  QCA's  research  on  scenario  method  originated  through 
involvement  in Cedefop's pilot work on Scenarios for VET in Europe. Already 
there  have  been  three  additional  applications  in  different  educational  fields 
that  have  yielded  useful  and  previously  unobtainable  perspectives  on  the 
future.  QCA is therefore  grateful  to  Cedefop  for  the opportunity  to  research 
and  learn  in the  VET  project.  It  is  also  important  that  we  continue  to  share 
experiences  of  applying the methodology  in different ways that are suited to 
different  contexts.  This  conference  provides  an  opportunity  to  do  this  and 
again  we  are  very  pleased  to  provide  our  experiences  and  to  receive 
commentary  from experts  from other countries on our  research described in 
this  paper. 

References 

Bertrand,  G.  et  al.  Europe  2010:  cinq  scénarios  pour  sortir  du  no  future. 
Futuribles,  Analyse  et  Prospective.  European  Commission.  Brussels, 
1999. 

Buchan,  D.;  Roberts,  A.  Energy  study  sees  break-up  of  global  trends. 

Financial Times,  21 Jan 2002, London. 

Department  of  Education  and  Science;  Manpower  Services  Commission. 

Review of  Vocational Qualifications. London, 1986. 

Department of Trade and Industry, Future  Learning  Unit. Scenarios for 2020. 

London, 2001. 

Department for  Education  and  Employment.  Delivering skills for all - Second 

report of the National Skills Task Force. London, 1999. 

Green,  L.;  Hartley,  P.  Developing National  Occupational Standards. Report 

by LMG associates for QCA. London, 1999. 

Green,  L.;  Hartley,  P.  Final  report  on  a pilot  study  to  explore  the methods 
used  to  identify  the  content  of  National  Occupational  Standards.  QCA, 
London, 2000. 

Haskel, J.; Holt,  R.  Skills  Task Force research paper  on  'Anticipating future 
skill  needs':  Can  it  be  done?  Does  it  need  to  be  done?  DfEE.  London, 
1999. 

Leney, T;  Coles, M. Analysis and synopsis of the outcomes of the scenarios 

for  VET project. QCA and the  Institute of  Education. London,  2001. 

Leney,  T;  Mackinnon,  I.  Scenarios  for  three  transport  Industries,  QCA, 

London, 2002. 

Ministry  of  Education.  Scenarios  for  NZ  curriculum 2020.  Wellington,  New 

Zealand, 2001  (http://www.tki.org.nz/r/stocktake/index_e.php). 

Qualifications  for  the future 

53 

NCVQ.  Criteria and guidance.  London, 1995. 
NCVQ/SCOTVEC.  Review  of  100  NVQs/SVQs  -  a  final  report.  London, 

1996. 

OECD.  What schools  for the future? OECD: Paris, 2001. 
Shell,  Global scenarios  to 2020,  London, 2000. 
QCA.  Developing  National  Occupational  Standards  for  NVQs  and  SVQs. 

London,  1999. 

Schoemaker,  P.  Scenario  planning:  a  tool  for  strategic  thinking.  Sloan 

Management  Review.  London,  1995. 

Sellin,  Β.  Anticipating  occupational  and  qualifications 
Cedefop  Panorama Series. Cedefop. Thessaloniki, 2001. 

developments. 

United  Nations,  Population  Division  of  the  Department  of  Economic  and 
Social  Affairs  at  the  United  Nations  Secretariat.  World  population 
projections  to 2150.  United  Nations.  New York,  1998. 

Van Wieringen,  F.; Sellin, Β.;  Schmidt,  G.  Uncertainties  in education:  handle 

with care.  Max  Goote,  Kenniscentrum. Amsterdam, 2001. 

Wilson,  R.  Forecasting  skill  requirements  at  national  and company  levels. In 
Descy,  P.;  Tessaring,  M.,  eds.  Training  in  Europe.  Second  report  on 
vocational  training  research  in  Europe  2000:  background  report.  Cedefop 
Reference  series. Vol 2, pp 561 -  609. Luxembourg, 2001. 

54 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

Annex '. 
Techniques  used by UK consultants  in identifying  future  qualifications 
needs 

•  Workshops  with  experts  -  half  or  day  long  structured  sessions  with  high 
levels  of  interaction  between  participants  and  a  sharp  task  focus 
throughout. 

•  Focus  groups,  discussion  groups,  working  groups,  sector  expert  groups, 
brain  storming  sessions -  shorter  sessions  which  cover  specific  issues  to 
exploratory  discussion 

•  Delphi  methods  -  iteration  of  views  by  a  structured  method  of  engaging 

with experts 

•  Questionnaires  -  these  can  vary  in  length,  depth,  openness,  mode  of 

contact with the  interviewer 

•  Interviews  -  taking  the  form  of  one  to  one  interviews,  small  group  or 
telephone interviews.  Interviews can be heavily structured, semi structured 
or open. 

•  Desk  research  -  looking  at  reports,  statistics,  recruitment  data  and  other 

company documentation. 

•  Case studies -  applying trend analysis to specific work groups to discover 
implications. This  includes work place observations  and  HR practices. 
ICT  is  playing  a  growing  role  in  all  of  these  methods.  The  lack  of 
consistency  in the way the techniques are used may signal a  methodological 
problem  in this area. 

Annex  2 
An outline of scenarios  methodology 

Once an organisation is committed to the need to define longer-term strategic 
development  in a context  that  is  uncertain, the first  step  is to  conduct  desk 
research on published  materials to draw  up a list of possible future trends in 
the  field  of  interest.  Experts  may  contribute  their  views  as  to  which 
possibilities to look for. 

These  trends  are  put to  a  predefined  sample  of  experts  who judge  their 
importance  and  likelihood  of  coming  about.  Trends  that  most  experts 
consider to be unimportant are removed from the set. Trends still in the frame 
that  most  experts  consider  will  come  about,  and  those  that  provoke  a 
similarly  strong  feeling  that  they  will  not  come  about,  are  set  aside  for  use 

Qualifications  lor the future 

55 

later. The  remaining  set  of  future  trends  is characterised  by  divided  opinion 
about the likelihood of their  coming  about. These  are  used to  build the  spine 
of  a  set  of  scenarios.  By  analysing  the  areas  of  uncertainty  to  identify 
overarching  themes  and tensions  in these  trends, the  scenario  builders  can 
determine  dimensions  that  could  flip  one  way  or  the  other  in  the  future, 
according to the  experts.  For  example,  if a key theme  carrying  uncertainty  is 
'participation  in  education',  a  dimension  that  spans  from  'the  system 
becomes open to all and participation is encouraged' to 'the system  is geared 
to those who  are willing  and  able  to  participate' can  be  developed  - in other 
words a high-low  spectrum. 

These dimensions  are then set  against  one another  and used to  generate 
scenarios  that  are  narratives  describing  plausible  futures. At  this  stage  the 
future trends  that were  set aside  earlier  are  reintroduced  to  all scenarios. An 
effective  set  of  scenarios  is  that  the  scenarios  are  all  plausible,  internally 
consistent,  interesting  and  challenging  to  those  who  will  use  them  to  assist 
planning. 

Scenarios themselves  are only the beginning. The  power  of the method  is 
that  it  allows  the  testing  of  strategies. The  agency  wishing  to  plan  for  long-
term  change  identifies  strategies  that  could  be  adopted.  Each  strategy  is 
researched in relation to each scenario, usually by face-to-face  interview with 
a  fresh  sample  of  key  players. These  may  be  experts  in the  specific  field of 
interest or may be experts in specialisms tangential to the main field. A robust 
and  useful  strategy  is  one  that  seems  to  have  potential  in  a  range  of 
scenarios. Some  strategies  will resonate  strongly  or weakly, with a  particular 
scenario.  In  addition,  the  process  of  testing  the  strategies  reveals  data  on 
driving forces, resistant forces, key  players and policy  instruments  needed to 
make  a  strategy  effective,  and  so  serves  the  purpose  of  rounding  off 
strategies  to  make  them  more  likely  to  be  more  effective.  The  process  can 
also  highlight  risks  and  show  why  any  side  effects  of  deploying  the  strategy 
might be unhelpful. 

In conclusion  there  is  increasing  confidence  that  using  scenarios  method 
to  complement  other  methods  of  carrying  out  needs  analysis  brings  major 
advantages  in  'future  proofing'  qualifications.  The  way  that  the  method 
requires  stakeholders  and  experts  to  back  from  10 years  forward  instead of 
starting from the status quo is a major  advance.  However the  key  advance  is 
the  generation  of  strategic  conversations  amongst  stakeholders  about  the 
form of  a thoroughly  modern  qualification  system  for an  industry. 

Developing  prospective  tools 
for the  observation 
of  skill  requirements  in  Spain 

Jordi Planas,  GRET,  ICE-UAB, Autonomous  University of Barcelona,  Spain 

In  the  last  decades various  tools  have been  developed  in Spain  to observe skill 
requirements and to translate these requirements into provision of adequate initial 
school-based training, occupational training and continuing training. Although the 
tools developed  in Spain were  at first  oriented  to the  different  types of training, 
different  territories and different  methodologies, they all played an essential role in 
the general orientation and  modernisation of vocational education  and training in 
Spain. 

This paper describes the tools for  identifying  skills requirements  in Spain and 
informs  on  an  observatory  (OBINCUAL)  which  is  now  being  set  up.  This 
observatory  is  closely  associated  with  the  creation  of  the  National  System  of 
Vocational  Qualifications.  OBINCUAL  has  been  conceived  as  a  'network  of 
networks' which can function  as a nucleus of information  and  exchange on skill 
requirements  and  vocational  training  between  the  different  vocational  training 
subsystems in Spain. 

i.  The  subsystems  of  vocational  training  in  Spain 

Vocational training  in Spain  is divided into three  main subsystems: 
(a)  initial/regulated vocational training (regulated by legislation on education) 
given in secondary education schools  and organised  in middle-level  and 
higher-level training cycles; 

(b)  occupational vocational training addressed to the unemployed  as part of 

an active employment  policy; 

(c)  continuing vocational training  addressed  people in employment. 

Logically,  the  modes  of  organising 

training 
subsystems  vary  in  terms  of  curriculum  design  and  provision  of  training 
courses  in different  parts of the country. 

the  three  vocational 

Developing  prospective  tools for  the  observation 
of skill  requirements  in  Spain 

57 

(a)  The  curricula  of  the  middle-level  and  higher-level  training  cycles  in 
initial/regulated  vocational  training  are  essentially  designed  on  a 
centralised  basis  and  grouped  into  'occupational  families',  that  is,  they 
are  organised  nation-wide  (even  though,  as  in  the  whole  educational 
system,  a  great  deal  of  latitude  in  shaping  the  concrete  measures  is 
allowed  both  to  the  Autonomous  Communities  and  each  school).  The 
training  courses  in  the  middle-level  and  higher-level  training  cycles,  on 
the  contrary,  are  under  the  responsibility  of  the  governments  of  the 
Autonomous  Communities  and  held  in the  secondary  education  centres 
which,  in  Spain,  are  run  by  the  governments  of  the  Autonomous 
Communities. 

(b)  Occupational  training  has  been  decentralised 

in  the  Autonomous 
Communities  in the last few years. But, at national  level, INEM  (National 
Institute  for  Employment  under  the  Spanish  Ministry  of  Labour)  has,  in 
the 
last  decades,  set  up  a  central  Directory  of  Certificates  of 
Occupational  Proficiency.  However,  these  Certificates  of  Occupational 
Proficiency  are  not  binding  for the  occupational  training  courses  offered 
by the Autonomous  Communities. The Autonomous Communities  are the 
bodies  which  plan  the  provision  of  occupational  training  in  their 
territories,  so  it  is  not  surprising  that  the  outcome  of  this  situation  has 
been  a  high  degree  of  heterogeneity  in  the  nation-wide  contents  of 
training  provision  as,  basically,  these  courses  have  to  satisfy  a  large 
number  of  needs as  heterogeneous  as the different  territories. 

(c)  Continuing training resources are administered centrally  (for the whole of 
Spain)  by FORCEM  (Foundation for Continuing Training) which  prepares 
its curricula and plans its courses mainly on the basis of the  requirements 
of the companies. 

2. 

requirements  and  the  programming  of  training 
provision 

The diversity  of  the  target  groups  and the  specific  objectives  of  this  type  of 
training,  the  degree  of  decentralisation  in  the  definition  of  its  contents,  the 
diversity  of  programming  mechanisms  and  financing  sources,  led  to  the 
establishment  of  specific  observation  mechanisms  for  each  subsystem. The 
methodology  of  the  observation  mechanisms  set  up  for  each  of  the 
vocational training subsystems  was essentially  that  of  'functional  analysis'. 

58 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Other tools for observation  at sectoral  or local level were  also developed, 

but in a very  uneven  manner. 

Vocational  training  in  Spain, as  in  other  European  countries,  has to  deal 
with  the  necessity  of  creating  a  common  framework  of  reference  for  the 
different  vocational  training  subsystems;  this  inevitably  implies  that  better 
integration  of  the  observation  tools  for  skill  requirements  and  training 
provision  is required, as these, up to now, were developed  autonomously by 
the  different  subsystems  and  differ  from  one  another  even  though  they 
contain some elements  of coordination. 

Up to the present, the  measures which  have had a major  impact  in Spain 

may be grouped as follows: 
•  Work on the curricula  of  initial  vocational  training  is undertaken  mainly  by 
the  Autonomous 
the  Ministry  of  Education 
Communities. This  work  which  has  the  aim  of  producing  the  curricula  for 
the  middle-level  and  higher-level  training  cycles  is  carried  out  in 
conjunction with experts from the companies. 

in  collaboration  with 

•  The observatory  set up by  INEM (Ministry  of  Labour), the 'Observatory  for 
Occupations', is structured more in the form of a dynamic network covering 
the  occupational  training  centres  than  a  traditional  observatory.  But,  as 
Cachón  (2001)  says,  it  is  not  capable  of  extending  this  dynamic 
development  beyond  its institutional  borders. 

•  FORCEM (Foundation for Continuing Training which administers the public 
funds  for  the  financing  of  continuing  training  in  Spain)  has  developed 
observation  tools  for  skill  requirements  and  training  needs  primarily  on  a 
sectoral  basis,  but  this  too  is  not  a  genuine  observatory,  and  its  special 
interest  is only directed to some occupational fields. 

•  Some  Autonomous  Communities  have  developed  observatories  which 
mainly  observe  and  identify  the  specific  needs  of  the  territory  for  which 
they are responsible. The Basque Country  deserves  a special mention for 
its  efforts  to  improve  quality,  and  similar  efforts  are  being  undertaken  in 
other  Autonomous  Communities  such  as  the  Canary  Islands  or  Madrid 
(Cachón, 2001). 

•  Mention  should  also  be  made of  a multitude  of  'local  observatories',  often 
established  at  municipal  level  with  heterogeneous  resources  and  varying 
objectives,  which  are  to  be  found  in  Spain  today.  As  the  municipal 
administrations  are  mainly  responsible  not only  for  initial  training  but  also 
for  occupational  training  policies,  many  of  them  have  created  their  own 
tools to help them to identify  and provide the vocational training  needed in 
their  own territory. 

Developing  prospective  tools  for  the  observation 
of  skill  requirements  in  Spain 

59 

•  Lastly,  there  are  other  more  or  less  systematic  mechanisms  for  the 
identification  of  training  needs  linked  to  the  'spontaneous'  demand  of 
companies. 
All, or almost all, of these tools contain prospective elements for  identifying 
future  skills,  but  they  are  clearly  insufficient  to  respond  effectively  to  the 
challenges  arising  for  our  economies  from  the  ongoing  process  of  change. 
Furthermore, 
the  existing 
mechanisms  do  not contain  a methodology  which  is appropriate  for this type 
of work. 

the  prospective  elements  developed 

in 

3.  OBINCUAL  -  a  stake,  a  challenge, 

some  questions 

its 

intentions  but  not 

Although it is still in the initial phase - which means that we can only  describe 
and  evaluate 
its  achievements  -  OBINCUAL 
(Observatory  of the Spanish  National  Institute for Qualifications  - INCUAL)  is 
now  being  set  up  in  Spain. This  institute,  and  its  observatory,  is  under  the 
responsibility  of the General Council for Vocational Training  (CGFP)  and  has 
organic  links with the  Ministry of  Labour. 

This  observatory  is  closely  associated  with  the  creation  -  also  under  the 
technical  responsibility  of  INCUAL  -  of  the  National  System  of  Vocational 
Qualifications.  The  aim  of  this  system  is  to  be  an  '...  integrated  vocational 
qualification  and training  system  ...  which will  provide  the tools for  a  system 
capable of enabling a global, coordinated, coherent  and optimal treatment  of 
the  problems  of  the  vocational  qualification  and  training  of  the  different 
groups  of  persons, organisations  and companies' (CGFP, 2000). 

By integration the project  means: a) integration  of vocational  qualifications 
in order  to  establish  a  common  framework  of  reference  for  skills  defined  in 
accordance  with  the  current  needs  of  the  production  system  for  all types  of 
vocational  training;  b)  integration  of  the  different  means  of  acquiring 
vocational  skills; c)  integration  of training  provision  in vocational  education. 

The  project  states:  'Therefore,  the  National  System  of  Qualifications  will 
serve  as  a  framework  of  reference  and  orientation  for  all  actions,  and 
especially  the  training  activities  of  the  different  administrations,  the  social 
partners,  other  bodies,  companies  and  persons,  thus  facilitating  the 
necessary  cooperation  and  consensus,  so  that  all  those  involved  may 
coordinate  their  objectives  and  interests  in the  system  of  qualifications  in  a 
coherent  and structured  manner'  (CGFP, 2000). 

60 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

For  this  purpose,  OBINCUAL  has  been  conceived  as  a  'network  of 
networks' which  can function  as  a  nucleus  of  information  and  exchange  on 
skill  requirements  and  vocational  training  between  the  different  vocational 
training subsystems  in Spain. 

With  regard  to  the  early  identification  of  skill  requirements  OBINCUAL 
intends  to  set  up  'expertise'  networks  whose  work  will  '....  enable  the  early 
detection of needs for new qualifications  by defining (endogenous)  scenarios 
of the future'. 

The purpose of OBINCUAL's prospective activities, according to INCUAL's 
working  documents, will be to analyse the key areas of qualification  and the 
economic  activities  to  which  they  are  linked  and  thus: firstly  determine  the 
components  and  the  variables  of  the  production  process  in  which  most 
changes  are  taking  place,  and  secondly,  collect  information  on  trends  and 
forecasts  on the future development  of these  components. 

This  will  make  it  possible  to  provide  information  on  development  trends 
and forecasts for the future of the 'observation fields' in which OBINCUAL will 
be organised. The 'observation fields' (CIREM, 2002)  '...  may be considered 
as  sub-aggregates  of  economic/productive  activities  which  have  a  certain 
technological  and  professional  affinity,  and  are  based  on  the  horizontal 
categorisation  of the  National Catalogue  of Vocational  Qualifications'. 

In order to carry out these prospective  studies OBINCUAL proposes to do 

the following: 
•  conduct  a  preliminary  analysis  of  the  observation  field  and  the  fields 

considered to be key areas for its future  development; 

•  select  the  nuclei  of  the  network  of  networks  which, through  their  routine 
activities,  will  be  most  suitable  to  develop  the  study  of  each  observation 
field. 
The  basic  methodology  used by OBINCUAL will be the  Delphi method. 
The  experts  of  the  OBINCUAL  network  will  be the  persons  directing  the 
study of each observation field (one of them will be appointed as head of the 
project)  and  establishing  the  subjects  and  the  variables  of  the  Delphi 
questionnaires. 

As  INCUAL  only  initiated  this  process  recently,  we  will  have  to  wait  for 
some time to collect enough material to evaluate the results of the  measures 
for the  early  identification  of  skill  requirements.  In addition, not  enough time 
has passed to obtain sufficient  information for assessing the strong and weak 
points of its application. 

In  any  case,  even  though  many  points  relating  to  the  development  of 
OBINCUAL still have to be discussed at length, we can raise some questions 
today. At least two questions  arise in the discussion  of  methodology: 

Developing  prospective  tools  lor  the  observation 
of  skill requirements  in  Spain 

61 

(1)  What  scope  does  OBINCUAL  have  to  deal  with  local  and  sectoral 

specificities? 

The  process  of  technological  and  commercial  globalisation  to  which 
most companies  in Spain, and also in other  European countries, are  now 
being  subjected,  has  'upstream'  and  'downstream'  effects  which  go 
beyond  the  boundaries  of  the  state.  In  the  field  of  human  resources, 
regional  and  even  local  aspects,  as  several  authors  indicate  (Manuel 
Castells  for  example),  may  be  an  essential  element  of  competitiveness 
for  companies  in  a  global  economy.  The  question  may  also  be  asked 
from a reverse  angle: what scope do national states actually  have for the 
prospective  management  of  skills? 

In  view  of  the  vital  role  played  today  by  national  states  in  the 
establishment of standards for skills management  on our labour  markets, 
it  seems  to  be  reasonable  that  the  'national'  mechanisms  for  early 
identification  of  skill  requirements  should  also  integrate  the  other  two 
dimensions,  the  global  and  the  regional,  in  order  to  ensure  their 
effectiveness.  For example, the  skill  requirements  and training  needs  of 
companies  in  the  micro-electronics  sector,  or  even  those  of  a  single 
company,  are  not the same  in Helsinki  and in  Barcelona. 

Another variable (cross-linked with the above)  plays an 'inevitable' role 
in  observatories  which  pursue  objectives  or  targets  such  as  those  of 
OBINCUAL: the sectoral  element  and its role in the  international  division 
of labour in a specific  area. Skill requirements for administrative  activities 
in  the  micro-electronics  sector  are  not  the  same  as  those  for  the 
hotel/catering  sector,  not  even  if  they  are  in  the  same  locality,  or  if  two 
hotel establishments  of different  categories  and  size  are  involved. Thus, 
consideration  of  intersectoral  and intrasectoral  specificities  is required. 

(2)  What room  will there be  for  'the old' and  'the new' in  future? 

Early identification of  skill requirements  presents  a dual challenge: we 
have to include the observation and detection of both 'new' skills and 'old' 
skills,  the  latter  will  continue  to  exist  and/or  facilitate  the  acquisition  of 
new skills. 

In the debate  on early  identification  of  skill  requirements  the  essential 
problem  may  be  that  we  associate  'early  identification'  only  with  'new 
skills'  as  an  element  of  the  future.  In doing  this  we  run  the  great  risk  of 
forgetting  the  'old  skills'  which  will  continue  to  be  vital  in  the  future.  In 
everyday  terms  one  may say that  many  of the  essential  skills  needed  to 
cope with the future are skills which, at least in essence even if their form 
varies,  are  extremely  old.  Knowing  how  to  read  or  express  oneself  in 

62 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

writing,  or  regularly  reading  the  daily  or  weekly  press  or  books, 
irrespective  of whether they  are on paper or electronic. 

Because of this, even if it seems very paradoxical, one of the principal 
challenges  of  the  identification  of  skills  which  will  be  required  in  the 
future, consists  of  identifying  and recognising those 'old' skills which will 
continue to  exist  or will,  at  least, be the  basis for the  acquisition  of  new 
skills which are only  'identifiable' in the short term. Therefore, one of the 
challenges of the future  is the ability to recognise the old skills which will 
continue  to  serve  as the  basis  of  the  knowledge  society.  This  is  a vital 
aspect  which  effects,  among  other  aspects, the  contents  and  efficiency 
of  compulsory  education.  The  human  capital  of  a  country  can  be 
transformed  in the  short term  only  if the working  population  has a basic 
training  which  is  not  vulnerable  to  the  rapid  changes  in  our  economies 
but is so solid that  it can respond to and absorb these changes. 

What  scope  for  action  does  OBINCUAL  have  in  this  respect,  as  this  is 

basically  essential for the future? 

There  is  no doubt  that for the  early  identification  of  skills  it  is essential to 
take  into account the time  horizons  of the 'students', the companies  and the 
training systems, all of them essentially  different  (Planas et al., 2001). 

References 

Cachón,  L.  Observatorios  de  Formación  Continua.  Estudio  Exploratorio. 

Dep. de Sociología  I. Universidad  Complutense  de Madrid,  2001. 

CGFP  (Consejo  General  de  Formación  Profesional).  Nuevo  programa 
Nacional de Formación Profesional. Published  by Consejo  General de  la 
Formación  Profesional, 2000. 

CIREM. Annex  I  'Campos de  Observación'in:  'Cuestionario  Delphi  para  el 
la 

Estudio  sobre 
factores  que 
determinación  de las cualificaciones  profesionales', 2002 

identificación  de 

inciden  en 

los 

Planas,  J.  et  al. The  skills  market:  dynamics  and  regulation.  In  Descy,  P.; 
Tessaring,  M.,  eds.  Training  in  Europe.  Second  report  on  vocational 
training research in Europe 2000: background report. Cedefop  Reference 
series. Office for Official  Publications of the European Communities, Vol. 2, 
2001,  pp. 313-381. 

Network  of  national  surveys 
on  skill  needs  in  Italy 

Mario Gatti, Institute for the Development of Workers' Vocational Training 
(ISFOL),  Rome,  Italy 

In Italy vocational training has been managed by the Regions since 1974. The need 
to attain integrated education and labour policies at the local level had encouraged 
research aimed at surveying and anticipating training and occupational needs. This 
research  was  intended  to  guide  political  choices  supporting  socio-economic 
development and employment. 

At present the government is establishing a network by creating an  information 

system designed to supply  information  about: 
•  sectoral scenarios in which occupational needs are expressed; 
•  lists  of  occupational  titles  by  sectors  representing  needs  which  have  been 
expressed  by  companies  but  which  are  in  very  short  supply  on  the  labour 
market; 

•  descriptions of occupational needs stemming from new skill needs; 
•  occupational forecasts  for the short and medium terms (1-5 years). 

This paper presents the project -  coordinated by ISFOL -  to set up a network of 

national needs surveys in Italy. 

i. 

Introduction 

In the  past,  analyses  of  skill  and  training  requirements  in  Italy  followed  two 
parallel and separate strands: the local and the national. Local analysis  work 
took  root  before  national  analysis  work  which  has gained  ground  only  in the 
last five years. 

The  Italian government promoted, between  1997 and 2000, a set of  national 
surveys of skill requirements in various sectors of the economy and is currently 
preparing  an  information  system  networking  these  surveys  with  a  view  to 
providing information on trends  in skill and training  requirements  in Italy. 

In  this  respect,  the  Ministry  of  Labour  and 

Industrial  Policy  has 
commissioned  ISFOL  (Institute  for  the  Development  of  Workers'  Vocational 
Training)  to  design  this  system  which,  by  creating  a  network  of  national 

64 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

surveys,  gathers  and  combines  qualitative  data  on  skill  requirements  with 
quantitative data on occupational trends. 

The purpose of this networked system for the permanent monitoring of skill 
requirements  is to facilitate  and improve labour market entry and integration, 
improve  and  support  employability  and  promote  occupational  mobility.  As 
such,  it has  been  included  by the  Ministry  of  Labour  and  Industrial  Policy  in 
the Operating  Plans of the new 2000-06 programme  period of the  European 
Social  Fund, among  systems  measures, as part  of  Objective  3 of  Strand C, 
Measure  C1  and  in  the  'human  resources'  strand  of  Objective  1  of  the 
National  Operating  Plan  which  is  administered  by  the  Ministry  of  Labour. 
Measures  planned  under Objective 3 must be linked to those planned  under 
Objective  1 in order to promote  benchmarking. 

At local level, it should be borne in mind that the Italian Regions have been 
responsible  for  vocational  training  since  1974.  In recent  years, a  number of 
institutional  reforms  have  enhanced  and extended  local  authority  education 
and  labour  market  competences. The  need to  implement  local  policies  that 
integrate education and work has paved the way for a whole range of surveys 
intended  to  detect/anticipate  skill  and  training  requirements  whose  findings 
could  well  be  used  as  a  starting  point  for  choices  of  policy  to  support 
development  and employment  in an area. 

The autonomy with which the  Regions  have conducted their  research has 
meant  that  their  results  are  not  at  all  comparable,  making  comparative 
studies of the various local experiments very difficult. In many cases, different 
objectives have been pursued, using different approaches and methods, and 
different  instruments  have been prepared. 

Both  nationally  and  locally,  there  have  recently  been  attempts  to  place 
measures  on  a  less  sporadic  footing  and  in  both  cases  to  work  towards  a 
system configuration. 

The regional governments are now clearly aware of the need to reorganise 
and  systemise  local  needs  analysis  initiatives.  All  the  Regional  Operating 
Plans for the 2000-06  period  include this  issue, setting out both specific  and 
horizontal  measures. 

As part of the overhaul of the institutional  scenario, a structural  link  needs 
to  be  found,  in  the  areas  of  vocational  training  and  labour  market  policy, 
between national and local needs analysis initiatives, that does not make one 
subordinate  to  the  other,  but  does  provide  a  high  degree  of  consistency. A 
national  system  necessarily  has to take  account  of  the  Regions'  needs  and 
experiences  as  they  are  responsible  for  training  supply  design  and  labour 
market  management  and  therefore  for  human  resource  development 
policies.  Ex  post  monitoring  of  the  efficiency  and  effectiveness  of  the 

Network  of  national  surveys  on  skill  needs  in  Italy 

65 

nationally  networked  system  of  needs  analysis  is  also  important  for  the 
purposes  of  planning  regional  training  policies.  Drawing  two  strands  of 
initiatives  which  currently  have  few  links  into  a  coordinated  framework  is 
if  tasks  are  to  be  correctly  allocated  to  central 
extremely  important 
government,  which  needs  to  provide  a  framework  within  which 
local 
authorities  have  to  draw  up  criteria  for  the  reorganisation  of  regional 
initiatives. 

Taking a systemic approach, however, the subsystems  have to function as 
parts of a single  mechanism  for which  criteria for and methods  of  connection 
and interaction  have to be clearly  pinpointed. 

2.  Networked  system  for  the  permanent  monitoring 

of  skill  and  training  requirements 

The surveys included  in the  national  networked system are to  be conducted, 
during  the  initial  pilot  stage,  by  joint  organisations,  called  Bilateral  Bodies, 
made  up of  entrepreneurs  and trade  unionists  active  in and familiar  with  the 
labour  market, taking  an overall  approach  in which  the  networked  system  is 
managed  by  the  institutions  (Ministry  of  Labour  and  Industrial  Policy)  to 
guarantee  neutrality,  and  information  is  produced  by  the  social  partners  in 
order to ensure  its  accuracy. 

Up to  now, two types  of survey  have  been conducted: 

1.  the first  gathering  information  on employment  and  recruitment  prospects 

from  enterprises; 

2.  the  second,  of  a  qualitative  type,  gathering  information  on  occupations 
and competences  lacking in the labour market, but needed by enterprises. 
The  quantitative  surveys  have  explored  the  whole  of  the  economy,  while 
the  qualitative  surveys  conducted  up  to  now  have  covered  some  25%  of 
economic  activities. 

At  this  experimental  stage,  different  methods  have  been  used  for  the 

qualitative  research, producing  results that are difficult  to  combine. 

To  resolve  this  problem,  ISFOL's  initial  initiatives  have  involved  all  the 
partners  in  the  system  to  try  to  ensure  that  the  methods  being  used  for 
surveys  under  way  are  as consistent  as possible. 

The  information  and  data  gathered  are  managed  by  an  Internet  platform-

based information  system  which combines four types  of data: 
1.  trends  in the economic  scenario  in which  needs  are expressed; 
2.  sectoral  registers  of the occupations  required  by  enterprises; 
3.  description  of the occupations  required; 

66 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

4.  data  on  current  employment  and  short-  and  medium-term  forecasts. 

To  describe  the  scenario,  as  shown  in  Figure  1, the  information  system 

provides  structural  data  on: 
•  enterprise  characteristics  in terms  of  size,  market,  number  of  employees: 
•  geographical  distribution; 
•  data  employment  in terms  of  numbers  and  types  of  employees. 
Trends  are  described  on  the  basis  of  the  following  variables: 

•  technological  innovation  anticipated  in the  near  future; 
•  organisational  innovation  (for  instance,  lean organisation, outsourcing, spin 

off,  etc.); 

•  product/service  innovation. 

F i g u r e i.  Scenario  description 

Identification 

Sector name 
Ateco code 

Structural data 

enterprise characteristics 
geographical distribution 
employment by number 
and type of employees 

Trends 

technological innovation 
organisational innovation 
product/service innovation 

The  lists  of  occupations  required  by  enterprises,  in  each  economic  sector, 
are  'processed' by the  Bilateral  Bodies  which then  incorporate  similar  profiles 
into  a single  occupational  profile  and draw  up a  new  list,  known  as a  register, 
of  reference  profiles. 

These  groupings  of  similar  occupational  profiles  into  single  broader  virtual 
occupational  profiles  are  felt  to  be  more  useful  for  the  design  of  education 
and training  schemes. 

Network  of  national  surveys  on  skill  needs  in  Italy 

67 

Figure  2  gives  an  example  of  a  reference  profile  register  for  the textile  and 

clothing  sector. 

Figure  2.  List  of  virtual  occupations  (e.g. clothing and textile  sector) 

1. 

2. 
3. 

4. 

5. 
6. 
7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

11. 
12. 

13. 

administration/finance/auditing 
technician 
accountant/bookkeeper 
human resource 
management/development 
technician 
company information system 
technician 
secretarial operator 
trade services operator 
product/service-customer 
assistance technician 
production  planning/logistics 
technician 
purchasing/procurement 
technician 
warehouse  (reception/shipment) 
worker 
product designer-textile technician 
product/process  industrialisation 
technologist 
quality system technician (process 
and  products) 

laboratory technician 

14. 
15.  testing technician 
15. 
16. 
17. 

environment/safety technician 
maintenance planning and 
management technician 
industrial information technician 
mechanical maintenance operator 
automation system electric and 
electronic  maintenance operator 
multi-purpose maintenance 
operator (mechanic-electric-
electronic) 

plant maintenance operator 
(thermo-hydraulic, steam, air-
conditioning) 
production technician 
(department/operational  unit 
management) 
dying and printing process 
operator 

25. 
26. 
27. 

finishing  process operator 
automation system operator 
production operator 

18. 
19. 
20. 

21. 

22. 

23. 

24. 

The  description  of  the  reference  profile,  shown  in  Figure  3,  is  divided  into 

two  sections.  The  first,  identifying  the  profile,  shows: 
•  the  name  of  the  reference  profile; 
•  its  link  with  the  ISCO  88  code; 
•  corresponding  occupations  in  the  labour  market; 
•  its  link  with  the Ateco  91  economic  activity  code  in  which  the  occupational 

requirement  is to  be  found; 

•  trends  in  requirements,  in  the  near  future,  as  expressed  by  a  significant 

sample  of  enterprises. 

68 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 3. Description of virtual occupations 

Identification section 

Virtual occupation name 

ISCO 88 code link 

Related occupations present in the 

labour market 

■ ATECO 91 sector/s & code/s link 

■ Future trend for this virtual 

occupation 

Description section 

Position in the production cycle 

Functional area and organisational 

position 

Job characteristics 

Present and future competences 

T he s e c o nd is a descriptive section providing information o n: 

• location of the reference profile in an ideal production cycle; 

• functional area and organisational position in which the occupation works; 

• work characteristics: mission, activities and tasks; 

• present and future skill requirements. 

Following on from this, competences, illustrated in Figure 4, are divided 

into current and future. 

Figure 4. Current and future competences 

Current competences 

Forecast of competences 
in the future according to 

Basic competences 

Horizontal competences 

Technical competences 

Economic sector future trend 

Production process & organisation 

future trend 

Product/service innovation 

Network of national surveys on skill needs in Italy 69 

Current competences include: 

• basic competences, i.e. the 'minimum knowledge' essential for 

employability (for instance language, computing, economic, business 
management, work research technique competences, etc.); 

• horizontal competences used in the occupation but not specific to that 
occupation. These are competences that can be transferred from one 
occupational context to another (for instance, communication, diagnostic, 
problem-solving competences, etc.); 

• technical competences linked specifically to the particular occupation. 

In the case of predicted future competences, the aim is to study changes 

in the competence mix resulting from: 
• future trends in the economic sector; 
• changes in production and organisation; 
• product and/or service innovation. 

Information on predicted competences provides significant data on future 

skill shortages. As well as qualitative findings, the system provides, as 
summarised in Figure 5, data and information on: 
• institutional surveys on the composition and size of the occupation 

(quarterly labour force surveys conducted by ISTAT); 

• data from the Excelsior survey on short-term enterprise recruitment 

forecasts conducted by Unioncamere (national body of Chambers of 
Commerce). 

Figure 5. Quantitative data and forecasts 

■ Quarterly labour market surveys 
■ Yearly recruitment forecast 

Macroeconomic studies providing 
medium-term forecast 

In order to improve forecasting, ISFOL is conducting a number of studies 
based on econometric models applied to sector/occupation grids in order to 
obtain medium-term employment forecasts (five years). 

The overall design of the system is shown in Figure 6. The system 
provides scenario information and sectoral registers for each sector of 
economic activity. The system provides information of a qualitative type and 
on trends for each profile of the register. Each reference profile is linked to an 
ISCO code which is in turn linked to an ISTAT code. The need for two 

70 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

classification systems is due to the fact that it is easier to classify virtual 
occupational profile requirements using the ISCO unit and minor group levels 
for which a description of missions and tasks is available, while the statistical 
data available in Italy refer to the ISTAT classification of occupations. This 
ISCO­ISTAT bridge enables qualitative information on occupational needs 
and competences to be indirectly linked to quantitative information on current 
and forecast employment. 

Figure 6. Logic diagram of the information system 

Scenario evolution J 

List of virtual 
occupations J 
I I — ^— 
Virtual occupation 
register f 

1 _ Short­term 

recruitment forecast^/ 

Medium­term 

employment forecast.1 

ill 

Labour force 
data 

Qualitative information 
for the education 
and vocational training 
system 

J 

♦ 

Employment 
recruitment forecast 

Quantitative 
employment data 

The mix of information available in the networked system helps to meet the 
information needs of the education and training system and to support labour 
market management policies. The findings of the qualitative surveys provide 
information enabling the education system to design training schemes that 
are in keeping with the needs expressed by the labour market. From the 
quantitative point of view, data is provided on employment stocks and flows 
as well as short­ and medium­term forecasts that can be used to design 
appropriate labour market policies. 

Network  of  national  surveys  on  skill  needs  in  Italy 

71 

3.  Conclusions 

The first steps have now been made towards the construction of a permanent 
national  system  for  the  analysis  of  trends  in  skill  and  competence 
requirements, but two  problems  still  need to  be resolved: 
•  how the  national  level of  the  needs  survey  network  can  be combined  with 

the local/regional  level; 

•  how  qualitative  information  on  needs  can  be  made  more  consistent  with 

quantitative  data on employment  trends. 
As  regards  the  first  problem,  it  should  be  stressed  that  although  it  is 
necessary to know about  national trends in skill  needs  in order to draw  up an 
overall  picture,  training  and  labour  market  management  policies  are 
implemented  at local  level with the result that specific  local  aspects  of  needs 
have to be properly  incorporated  into the  national  framework. 

Political agreement  needs to be found between the parties, and within this, 
a technical  proposal  paving  the  way  for  synergy  between  the  systems  that 
is 
are  being  constructed  at 
national/local  integration, the risk is that  information  on skill requirements  will 
be available  at a national  level  and therefore  difficult  to  use to  draw  up  local 
training  and  employment  policies. 

local  and  national 

level.  Unless 

there 

It would also be useful to devise a meta-method defining  how national skill 
requirements  can be specified at local  level. One  potential  path would  be for 
both  levels  of  government  to  promote  further  surveys  using  coordinated 
methods  in order to obtain  results  that  can  be combined. 

These  methods  should from the outset  be consistent  as  regards: 

•  terminology  and concepts; 
•  classification  references; 
•  IT links. 

Finding  appropriate  ways  of  linking  qualitative  information  on  needs,  in 
particular those  relating  to current  and future competences, with  quantitative 
forecasts of employment trends is the other challenge that this system poses. 
The  deadline  of  next  autumn  for  the  production  of  the  networked 
information  system  prototype  will  be  a  turning  point  in  the  design  of  the 
permanent  national  system for  monitoring skill  and training  requirements. 

There  is no doubt,  however, that a successful  outcome will depend  largely 
on whether  the  partners  involved  manage  to  find  and  implement  consistent 
choices. 

Labour  market  forecasting 
in the  Netherlands:  a top-down 
approach 

Frank Cörvers,  Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA), 
Maastricht University,  The Netherlands 

To  uphold  consistency  between  aggregated  and  disaggregated  labour  market 
forecasts,  it  is  important  to  use  both  a  fitting  general  forecasting  model  and 
national  databases  which  distinguish  between  various  occupational  groups  and 
types  of  education.  The  answer  is  a  top-down  approach  to  labour  market 
forecasting,  such  as  that  mainly  used  by  ROA.  It  can  adequately  deal  with 
interaction  between  different  labour market segments and substitution  processes 
between  occupational  groups  and  types  of  education.  The  opposite  is the  so-
called bottom-up approach, in which partial models of labour market  forecasting 
are used, for example for just a selection  of sectors or occupational  classes, with 
input  from  specific  (ad  hoc)  data  sources.  The  bottom-up  approach  can  be 
complementary  to  the  top-down  approach.  The  paper  gives  examples  of  both 
approaches by reviewing some ROA research. 

i. 

Introduction 

The  Dutch  Research  Centre  for  Education  and the  Labour  Market's  (ROA) 
forecasts aim to increase transparency  of the  match between education  and 
the  labour  market.  The  more  transparent  a  labour  market,  the  better  the 
opportunities  and  risks  resulting  from  future  labour  supply  and  demand 
developments  can  be  signalled.  To  anticipate  mismatches,  suitable  labour 
market forecasts  are  required.  In this paper,  it is argued that  ROA uses first 
a top-down  approach for  making  labour  market forecasts. In this approach a 
general  -  as  distinct  from  partial  -  forecasting  model  for  the  whole  labour 
market  and  data  from  national  sources  are  combined  to  serve  two  main 
functions  of  labour  market  forecasts:  policy  and  information  (see  Van  Eijs, 
1994). The policy function refers to the usefulness of labour market forecasts 

Labour  market  forecasting  in 
the  Netherlands: a top-down  approach 

I  73 

for government  policy-makers,  public  employment  services  and  employment 
agencies,  employers'  organisations,  unions  and  educational  organisations. 
Policy-makers want to be informed  of supply  and demand developments.  By 
taking  account  of  future  employment  trends  of  broadly  defined  educational 
classes  and  occupational  groups,  they  are  able  to  invest  correctly  in  the 
educational  infrastructure.  For the  Netherlands,  ROA biennially  publishes the 
report  The  labour  market  by  education  and  occupation  to  200x,  (1)  which 
includes  analyses  of  expected  labour  market  developments  in  the  light  of 
particular  policy  issues.  Although  the  information  on  which  this  report  is 
based  originally  focused  mainly  on  study  and  career  guidance,  today  the 
report  is  aimed  more  at  those  involved  in  policy-making  on  the  match 
between  education  and the  labour  market. 

The information function  is primarily  intended to assist with vocational  and 
educational  guidance.  This  improves  the  functioning  of  the  labour  market, 
since  individuals  are  better  able  to  adjust  their  human  capital  investment 
decisions  to  labour  market  prospects  of  types  of  education  (see  Borghans, 
1993). Also,  firms  may  use  labour  market  forecasts  as  'early  warnings'  on 
future  recruitment  problems  to  anticipate  human  resources  policies.  The 
ROA  report  is  based  on  information  providing  a  detailed  insight  into  the 
current  and  future  labour  market  position  of  104  types  of  education,  127 
occupational groups and 34 economic sectors (2). The information focuses on 
medium-term  labour  market  forecasts,  to  give  those  making  choices  on 
further studies, the best possible information on the state of the labour  market 
when  they  complete  their  studies.  The  National  Careers  Guidance 
Information  Centre  (LDC)  incorporates  ROA's  labour  market  information  in 
various  information  products  for  vocational  and  educational  guidance. 
Besides  civil  servants  from  many  different  ministries  (e.g. education,  social 
affairs,  economic  affairs,  agriculture)  and  public  employment  services, 
educational  institutes,  personnel  managers,  advisory  councils,  etc.  all  use 
different  parts of the  information  system for their  decision-making. 

Labour market information serves as vocational and educational guidance, 
and  usually  requires  much  more  detail  than  the  information  used  by  policy 
makers. Therefore  the  level of  aggregation  at which  labour  market  forecasts 
are disseminated,  needs  to  be  higher  for  the  policy  than  for  the  information 
function.  The  ROA  information  system  covers  the  whole  spectrum  of 
occupational  groups  and  types  of  education  on  the  labour  market,  and  is 
designed  to  meet  both  functions.  To  preserve  consistency  between 

O  See  ROA, 1995, 1995a, 2001. 
(2)  The forecasts  on expansion demand (see the next  section)  are presented for  13 economic  sectors. 

74 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

aggregated  labour  market  information  (e.g.  employment  trends  at  sector 
level,  increase  in  the  level  of  education)  and  the  detailed  information,  it  is 
important  to  use  both  a  fitting  general  forecasting  model  and  national 
databases  which  distinguish  between  the  various  occupational  groups  and 
types  of  education.  The  answer  is  a  top-down  approach  to  labour  market 
forecasting,  which  can  adequately  deal  with  interaction  between  different 
labour  market  segments  and  substitution  processes  between  occupational 
groups  and  types  of  education.  The  opposite  is  the  so-called  bottom-up 
approach, in which partial models of  labour  market forecasting  are  used, for 
example  for  just  a  selection  of  sectors  or  broad  occupational  classes,  with 
input from specific  (ad hoc) data sources. 

The next section  presents the top-down  approach  of the  ROA forecasting 
model.  (3)  Section  3 discusses  the features  of  the top-down  and  bottom-up 
approaches  as  well  as  their  complementarities.  Section  4  concludes  the 
paper. 

2. 

Figure  1 gives a schematic  review of the labour market forecasting model. (4) 
One  flow  volume  important  for  the  demand  side  of  the  labour  market  is 
expansion  demand, which  reflects the  movement  in employment  levels  in a 
particular  occupational  class  or for  a particular type  of education.  Forecasts 
of expansion demand are based on employment level forecasts for economic 
sectors  produced  by the  Netherlands  Bureau  for  Economic  Policy  Analysis 
(CPB).  Because  particular  occupational  classes  within  an  economic  sector 
grow  more  rapidly  than  others,  ROA translates  these  changes  in  economic 
sectors into expansion demand per occupational class. Then the implications 
of predicted growth in various occupational classes for expansion demand for 
each  type  of  education  are  determined. Allowance  is  made  at this  point  for 
any  shifts  occurring  in  the  educational  structure  of  occupational  classes. 
Expansion demand per type of education refers to the number of people with 
a  particular  educational  background  that  employers  would  like to  be able to 
employ.  The  actual  change  in  employment  levels  per  type  of  education 
generally differs with this because changes on the supply  side affect  relative 
scarcities  and lead to substitution. 

(3)  Large  parts  of  this  section  have  been  published  before  in,  for  example,  De  Grip,  Borghans  and 

Smits,  1998. 

(")  A comprehensive  explanation  can  be  found  in  Cörvers,  De  Grip  and  Heijke,  2002.  See  also  Van 

Eijs  et al., 1999, and De Grip,  Borghans  and Willems, 1995. 

Labour  market  forecasting  in 
the  Netherlands: a top-down approach 

|  75 

Figure  1.  ROA's  labour  market forecasting  model 

ι 

Expansion  demand 
by economic  sector 

Expansion  demand 
by  occupational  segment 

) 

J

Expansion demand 
by type of  education 

\ 

Replacement  demand 

by type of  education 

-  « 

\ 

r 

Job  openings 
by type of  education 

Substitution  effects 
by type  of  education 

Labour market  perspectives 
for  newcomers 
by type of  education 

Supply  of  newcomers 
on the  labour  market 
by type of  education 

Short term  unemployed 

Τ 
by type of  education  J

Inflow  of school  leavers 

by type  of  education 

Source:  De Grip, Borghans and Smits, 1998. 

Labour  market  demand  consists  not  only  of  expansion  but  also  of 
replacement  demand,  which  arises  when  workers  retire,  leave  the  labour 
force  under  an  early  retirement  scheme  or  because  of  a disability,  withdraw 
from  the  labour  market  temporarily,  or  switch  to  another  occupation,  etc. 
However,  replacement  demand  only  arises  if  the  departure  of  an  employee 

76 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

actually  leads to a vacancy for a new entrant.  If the departure of  a worker  is 
taken  as an  opportunity  to  cut  employment  levels,  no  replacement  demand 
results. These flows out of the  labour  market are irrelevant  for  newcomers. 

Thus,  only  parts  of  the  flow  leaving  the  market  create  replacement 
demand. There is also an important difference between replacement demand 
per  occupational  class  and  per  type  of  education,  because  occupational 
mobility has an influence on replacement demand per occupational class, but 
not  on  replacement  demand  per  type  of  education.  Switching  occupations 
has  no  effect  on  the  educational  structure  of  employment.  However,  when 
workers complete part-time studies for a higher level or different qualification, 
this  represents  an outflow  of  workers  to  another  educational  category  (type 
of  education).  In  these  cases,  replacement  demand  does  arise  in  the 
educational  category  under  which  a  worker's  previous  education  was 
counted. 

If  employment  levels  rise,  expansion  demand  and  replacement  demand 
together  compose  the job  openings  for  newcomers  to  the  labour  market.  If 
they fall, job openings  can only  arise because of  replacement demand. 

To be able to  show future  labour  market  prospects  for  newcomers  to the 
labour  market,  we  have  to  compare  job  openings  for  newcomers  with  the 
expected  supply  of  newcomers.  The  latter  consists  of  the  future  flow  of 
school-leavers  entering  the  labour  market  and  the  outflow  from  post-initial 
training  courses  during  the  forecast  period,  plus  the  supply  of  short-term 
unemployed persons waiting to enter the market at the start of this  period. It 
is assumed the  long-term  unemployed, who  have  been  looking  for  work for 
longer  than  a  year,  no  longer  constitute  serious  competition  for  school-
leavers. 

Forecasts of the flows of school-leavers  entering the labour  market  match 
the  Referentieramingen  (reference  forecasts)  compiled  by  the  Ministry  of 
Education,  Culture  and  Science  for  courses  in the  'regular'  (full-time  initial) 
education  system.  ROA  disaggregates 
forecasts  by  using 
supplementary data from education matrixes of Statistics Netherlands and its 
own  school-leavers  information  (see the  next  section).  Supplementary  data 
from Statistics Netherlands are also used to estimate the effects of flows from 
continuous  (vocational)  education  on  the  educational  makeup  of  the  flows 
entering the  labour  market. 

these 

An  indication  of  future  labour  market  prospects  for  newcomers  to  the 
labour  market  is  calculated,  for  each  type  of  education,  by  comparing  the 
expected flows  of demand and supply with each other. This  indicator  shows 
any  expected  discrepancy  between  demand  and  supply  for  each  type  of 
education.  Excess  supply  does  not  necessarily  imply  the  group  in  question 

Labour  market  forecasting  in 
the  Netherlands: a top-down  approach 

77 

will  automatically  become  unemployed,  or  a  supply  shortfall  automatically 
leads  to  unfilled  vacancies.  In  practice,  school-leavers  with  a  type  of 
education for which  supply  exceeds demand suffer  from  a worsening  of their 
position. They  are  more  likely  to  have  to  accept  work  below  their  level, get 
less  favourable  contracts,  be  paid  less  and  more  likely  to  work  part-time 
involuntarily  (Wieling  and  Borghans,  2001).  In  such  situations,  employers 
normally  adjust  their  demands  and  recruit  people  with  a  higher  educational 
background. On the other  hand, if there  is a supply  shortage,  school-leavers 
will  not  have to  accept a job at  a lower  level, for  lower  wages,  etc. 

Because of substitution  processes, there  are fewer job openings for  those 
suffering from 'crowding-out' with types of education in excess supply. On the 
other  hand, for  those with  educational  backgrounds  closely  related  to  types 
of education  in short  supply, there  will  be extra job openings. These  passive 
substitution  effects  (5)  are  thus  important  determinants  of  labour  market 
prospects for  types  of education. 

3.  The  top-down  versus  the  bottom-up  approach 

In  general,  ROA  uses  national  data  sources  for  the  forecasting  model 
discussed  in  the  last  section.  Both  use  of  national  data  sources  and 
forecasting with a general - as distinct from partial - model, represent the top-
down  approach  by  ROA.  Use  of  national  data applies  especially  to  changes 
in employment  in various sectors of industry, which  ROA takes from the CPB 
Netherlands  Bureau  for  Economic  Policy  Analysis,  and  to  flows  from 
education  onto  the  labour  market,  which  are  largely  taken  from  forecasts  of 
the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science. By using these, ROA ensures 
its labour  market  forecasts  are  consistent  with  authoritative  forecasts  which 
provide  the  basis  for  policy  decisions  on  important  social  and  economic 
issues  in the  Netherlands.  ROA  makes  as  much  use  as  possible  of  regular 
forecasts  on future  growth of  employment  and flows from  education  onto  the 
labour  market.  This  enables  ROA  to  concentrate  on  developing  its  own 
authoritative  expertise  within  the  specialised  field  of  the  match  between 
education  and the  labour  market. 

Another  pillar  on  which  labour  market  forecasting  and  the  information 
system  are  built,  is the  Labour  force  survey  (LFS)  of  Statistics  Netherlands 
(CBS).  The  LFS  provides  information  on  the  number  of  working  people, 

(5)  See  Borghans  and  Heijke,  1996, and  De Grip,  Borghans  and Smits,  1998, for  further  explanation. 

78 

Early identification of  skill needs in Europe 

analysed  by  economic  sector,  occupation,  training,  age,  sex  and  working 
hours.  Information  from  Statistics  Netherlands  on the  number  of students  in 
various types of education is also used. Data are used to estimate the models 
with  which  developments  in the  labour  market  are forecast.  Labour  market 
indicators giving  a picture of the employment  position  linked to the choice of 
a  particular  occupation  or  type  of  education, are  also  determined  based  on 
these  data.  These  indicators  concern  alternative  employment  options, 
competing  types  of  education,  and  sensitivity  to  cyclical  variations  in 
employment  levels. 

Existing  statistical  data  from  Statistics  Netherlands  offer  only  limited 
information  on  specific  matching  problems  in  the  labour  market  for 
newcomers  (i.e.  school-leavers).  ROA  has  put  much  effort  into  developing 
instruments for monitoring the labour market entry of school-leavers  regularly 
and coherently.  ROA is coordinating several extensive  surveys on the match 
between  initial  education  and  first  destinations  of  school-leavers  on  the 
labour  market.  (6)  These  include  all  flows  from  secondary  and  tertiary 
education  onto  the  labour  market,  using  an  integrated  model,  with 
measurements taken simultaneously and using one list of key questions. This 
means  that  representative  information  is available  on  graduates  across  the 
full  range  of  full-time  education.  Information  on  flows from  education  to  the 
labour  market  is  used  as  a valuable  supplement  to  disaggregate  forecasts 
made by the  Ministry  of  Education, Culture and Science. 

The  upper  part  of  Figure  2 shows the  role  of data sources  in  a top-down 
approach. The figure refers to the use of data sources covering all segments 
of  the  labour  market,  consistent  with  other  important  national  economic 
developments,  e.g.  GDP  growth, employment  growth, demographic  trends, 
which can be consistently differentiated to lower levels of aggregation. These 
data sources  are often  available  nationally  on a regular  and coherent  basis. 
This implies data can be used in time series analyses, which is important for 
forecasting  models. 

(6)  On  monitoring  school-leavers  in  the  Netherlands  is  the  Cheers  study  of  graduates  ot  higher 
education  in 11 EU countries. On behalf  of the  Netherlands,  ROA participates  in the  project,  which 
is funded  by the  European  Commission  in the framework  of the TSER  programme. 

Labour  market  forecasting  in 
the  Netherlands:  a top-down  approach 

79 

Figure 2.  Use of data  sources for  labour  market  forecasting  in the 

top-down and  bottom-up  approaches 

TOP  DOWN 

L A B O UR  M A R K ET  F O R E C A S TS 

J 

The  lower  part of  Figure  2 points to the bottom-up  approach  to the  use of 
data  sources  for  labour  market  forecasting.  The  various  text  boxes  are 
different  in size and  shape. This  refers to the features  of data sources  in the 
bottom-up  approach,  which  are  incompatible  with  one  another  and  provide 
partial, often  specific  but inconsistent  and  ad hoc  information  on  overlapping 
labour  market  segments.  Besides,  not  all  data  requirements  to  cover  the 
whole labour market are met, while not all data can be adequately  used when 
sources  are  too  inconsistent  with  one  another.  Obviously,  it  is  difficult  to 
integrate  data from  various  sources  in  one or  several  consistent  and  regular 
data sets. Another  disadvantage  of the  bottom-up  approach  is using  specific 
data  as  input  for  a  partial  model  of  the  labour  market,  thereby  excluding 
substitution processes  between occupations  and types  of education. 

Nevertheless,  partial  models  of  labour  market  forecasting  are  useful for  a 
deeper  insight  into the  mechanisms  and  problems  of  specific  labour  market 
segments,  in  particular  if  substitution  processes  and  interactions  with  other 
economic  sectors  are  less  important  (e.g.  health  care,  teachers  labour 
market).  Therefore  use  of  partial  and  ad  hoc 
information  may  be 
complementary  to  the  top-down  approach.  As  discussed  in  Borghans,  De 
Grip  and  Hoevenberg  (1994),  partial  information  of  particular  labour  market 
segments  can  be  used  to  differentiate  further  labour  market  forecasts 

80 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

generated in the top-down approach. Specific expert knowledge can be used 
to detect valuable  partial data sources, or to judge the plausibility  of  specific 
labour  market  forecasts.  In  particular,  for  short-term  forecasts  it  may  be 
useful  to  incorporate,  for  example,  consensus  of  judgements  of  sector 
experts  on particular forecasts  (see  Batchelor,  2001). However, for medium-
term forecasts experts  may give too much weight to recent developments on 
the labour  market. 

ROA has conducted  much research for which the bottom-up was a useful 

complement to the top-down  approach. Below are three examples. 

For  chemist's  assistants  in  public  pharmacies,  ROA  made  forecasts  of 
expected  problems  (De  Grip  and  Vlasblom,  1999).  The  problems  relate  to 
this  rather  protected  labour  market,  because  of  which  labour  market 
shortages  can  hardly  be solved  in the short term. It is therefore  important to 
have insight of developments of supply and demand at an early stage. Based 
on  administrative  sector-specific  data  on  personnel  flows  and  data  on 
destinations  of  graduates  drawn  from  the  above-mentioned  school-leaver 
surveys, a flow  model was  used to  make a long-term forecast. This forecast 
was complemented  by several sensitivity  analyses. 

For the Science, Research and Development  Directorate of the  European 
Commission,  ROA developed  a  model to  analyse whether  higher  education 
in  Member  States  provides  enough  science  graduates  to  meet the  demand 
for  R&D personnel  up to 2002 (see Marey,  De Grip and Cörvers, 2001). The 
model largely follows the forecasting  model described  in the last section. On 
the  demand  side,  three  sectors  are  distinguished:  business  community, 
public  sector,  and  higher  education. The  expansion  demand  per  sector  per 
Member  State  is  based  on an error  correction  mechanism that  explains  the 
sectoral  employment  of  scientific  researchers  by  sectoral  R&D  expenses. 
Data  are  mostly  drawn  from  Eurostat,  although  replacement  demand  is 
derived from an ad hoc survey  of  R&D establishments. The  model has been 
used  to  forecast  the  supply  and  demand  of  scientific  researchers  by 
discipline (i.e. natural sciences, technology, agriculture, and medical science) 
for  each  Member  State. To provide for  uncertainties  about  economic  growth 
and  technology  and  education  policies,  four  scenarios  up  to  2002  were 
calculated. 

For  health  care,  ROA  developed  a  model  in  which  the  flow  of  workers 
leaving the sector  is explained  at institute  level (Borghans  et al., 1998). The 
model  addresses  in  particular  the  effects  on  this  outflow  resulting  from 
increasing  or  decreasing  employment  levels  in an  institute. The  model  was 
estimated from administrative  data from the social insurance organisation for 
health  care.  From simulations  and scenario  analyses  of the flow  model, it is 

Labour  market  forecasting  in 
the  Netherlands:  a top-down  approach 

81 

shown  how  the  sector  manages  to  adapt  to  changing  supply  and  demand. 
Although the  model does not  produce  labour  market forecasts, it is useful for 
analysing  the  impact  of  future  growth  and  decline  (of  subsectors)  of  the 
health care sector  on the flow  of workers. 

4.  Conclusions 

ROA uses first  a top-down  approach  for  making  labour  market  forecasts.  In 
this approach  a general  - as  distinct  from  partial  - forecasting  model  for  the 
whole  labour  market  and  data from  national  sources  are  combined  to  serve 
two  main  functions.  The  policy  function  refers  to  the  usefulness  of  labour 
market  forecasts  for  policy-makers  of  government,  public  employment 
services  and  employment  agencies,  employers'  organisations,  unions  and 
organisations  in education. The  information  function  is  primarily  intended  to 
assist  with  vocational  and  educational  guidance.  The  paper  has  given  a 
schematic  review  of  the  labour  market  forecasting  model  used  by  ROA  by 
discussing three components: expansion demand, replacement  demand and 
the flow of  newcomers  onto the  labour  market. 

In a top-down  approach the data sources cover  all segments  of the  labour 
market, are consistent with other important  national economic developments, 
e.g.  GDP  growth,  employment  growth,  demographic  trends,  and  can  be 
consistently  differentiated to lower  levels of aggregation. These data  sources 
are often available  nationally  on a regular and coherent  basis.  In a bottom-up 
approach  the  data  sources  are  incompatible  with  one  another  and  provide 
partial, often  specific  but  inconsistent  and ad  hoc information  on  overlapping 
labour  market  segments.  Besides,  not  all  data  requirements  to  cover  the 
whole labour market are met, while not all data can be adequately  used when 
sources  are too  inconsistent  with one  another. 

Nevertheless,  partial  models  of  labour  market  forecasting  are  useful for  a 
deeper  insight  into  the  mechanisms  and  problems  of  specific  labour  market 
segments,  in  particular  if  substitution  processes  and  interactions  with  other 
economic  sectors  are  less  important  (e.g.  health  care,  teachers  labour 
market).  Therefore  use  of  partial  models  and  ad  hoc  information  may  be 
complementary  to  modelling  in the top-down  approach.  ROA has  conducted 
much research for which the bottom-up was a useful complement  to the top-
down approach. 

82 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

References 

Batchelor, R. How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? 

The IMF and OECD versus the Consensus. Applied Economics, 2001, Vol. 
33, pp. 225­235. 

Borghans, L. Educational choice and labour market information, dissertation. 

University of Limburg, Research Centre for Education and the Labour 
Market, Maastricht, 1993. 

Borghans, L.; Cörvers, F; Steur M. de; Vlasblom J.D. Stromen op de 

arbeidsmarkt in de zorgsector [Flows on the labour market of the health 
care sector]. OSA­publicatie, Ζ 30, OSA, Den Haag, 1998. 
Borghans, L.; Grip A. de; Hoevenberg J. De bruikbaarheid van 

deelmarktinformatie voor het informatiesysteem onderwijs­arbeidsmarkt 
[The usefulness of partial information for the information system 
education­labour market]. ROA­R­1994/13, Research Centre for 
Education and the Labour Market, Maastricht, 1994. 

Borghans, L.; Heijke H. Forecasting the educational structure of occupations: 
a manpower requirement approach with substitution. Labour, 1996, Vol. 
10, pp. 151­192. 

Cörvers, F.; Grip A. de; Heijke H. Beyond manpower planning: a labour 

market model for the Netherlands and its forecasts to 2006. In Neugart, M.; 
Schömann, Κ., eds. Forecasting Labour Markets in OECD countries. 
Edward Elgar, forthcoming, 2002. 

Eijs, P. van. Manpower forecasting in the western world: the current state of 
the art. ROA­RM­1994/1E. Research Centre for Education and the Labour 
Market, Maastricht, 1994. 

Eijs, P. van; Grip, A. de; Diephuis, B.; Jacobs, Α.; Marey, P.; Steur, M. de. 

Methodiek arbeidsmarktprognoses en ­indicatoren, 1999­20040 
[Methodology of the ROA information system on occupational groups and 
types of education, 1999­2004]. ROA­W­1999/4, Research Centre for 
Education and the Labour Market, Maastricht, 1999. 

Grip, A. de; Borghans, L.; Smits, W. Future developments in the job level and 
domain of high­skilled workers. In Heijke, H.; Borghans, L., eds. Towards 
a transparent labour market for educational decisions. Ashgate, 
Aldershot/Brookfield (USA), Singapore, Sydney, 1998. 

Grip, A. de; Borghans, L.; Willems, E. Methodology of the ROA information 

system on occupational groups and types of education. ROA­W­1995/1E, 
Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market, Maastricht, 1995. 

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the  Netherlands: a top-down  approach 

83 

Grip,  A.  de;  Vlasblom,  J.D.  Toekomstverkenning  arbeidsmarkt  apothekers 
assistenten  in  de  openbare  apotheek  [Exploration  of  the  future  labour 
market  of  chemist's  assistants  in  public  pharmacies].  ROA-R-1999/7, 
Research Centre for  Education  and the  Labour  Market,  Maastricht,  1999. 
Marey,  Ph.;  Grip,  A.  de;  Cörvers,  F.  Forecasting  the  labour  markets  for 
in  the  European  Union.  ROA-W-
research  scientists  and  engineers 
2001/3E,  Research  Centre  for  Education  and  the  Labour  Market, 
Maastricht, 2001. 

ROA.  The  labour  market  by  education  and  occupation  to  2000.  ROA-R-
1995/3E,  Research  Centre  for  Education  and  the  Labour  Market, 
Maastricht,  1995. 

ROA.  The  labour  market  by  education  and  occupation  to  2000.  Statistical 
appendix.  ROA-R-1995/3BE,  Research  Centre  for  Education  and  the 
Labour  Market,  Maastricht,  1995a. 

ROA.  De  Arbeidsmarkt  naar  Opleiding  en  Beroep  tot  2006  [The  labour 
market  by  education  and  occupation  to  2006].  ROA-R-2001/8.  Research 
Centre for  Education  and the  Labour  Market,  Maastricht, 2001. 

Wieling,  M.H.;  Borghans,  L.  Discrepancies  between  supply  and  demand  and 
adjustment processes in the labour  market. Labour, 2001, Vol. 15, pp. 33-56. 

PART  II 

Initiatives 
at  sectoral  level 

This  Part  focuses  on  contributions  investigating  future  skills 
needs 
the 
automotive  and  transport  sector, 
information  and  communi 
cations,  logistics,  health  care  and  construction. 

industrial  maintenance, 

in  various  sectors: 

These  contributions  illustrate  the  variety  of  approaches  to 
specific  subject  areas  in  the  early  identification  of  skills  needs. 
Job  monitoring,  company  case  studies,  expert  discussions  and 
networks  of  specialists  are  all  used  to  answer  specific  questions 
about  skills 
trends,  as  are  scenario-based  methods  and 
statistical  evaluations.  However,  it  is  not  possible  immediately  to 
transfer  individual  results  to  other  European  countries,  although 
parallel  trends  can  be  identified. 

Articles  in  Part  II 

Jean-Louis  Kirsch (F) 
Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

Tom Leney  (UK) 
Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in  the transport  sector 
in the  United  Kingdom:  has the  scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

Martin  Curley  (IRL/Career Space  Consortium) 
Addressing  the  ICT skills  shortage  in  Europe 

Kathrin Schnalzer,  Gerd Gidion, Miriam  Thum, Helmut  Kuwan (D) 
New skill  requirements  in  logistics 

Gert Alaby  (S) 
Skill  requirements  in  the care  of  the  elderly  -  the  Swedish  example 

Norbert  Bromberger,  Helen Diedrich-Fuhs  (D) 
Information  system  for  early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained for  the  construction  industry 

Industrial  maintenance 
in  France:  new  and  traditional 
skill  requirements n 

Jean-Louis Kirsch, Centre for Research on Education, Training and 
Employment (Céreq), Marseille, France 

The French Ministry of Education periodically commissions a sun'ey of the changes 
in skill  requirements  in  the  major  sectors  of economic  activity. This  information 
helps  to define  new  training  profiles  for  the  next  five  to  ten  years. Céreq  often 
carries out studies for this survey. Over the years, a tried and tested procedure has 
been  developed,  covering  different  fields,  e.g.  electronics,  trade,  building,  IT 
occupations, etc. 

This procedure is based on a three-step approach: 1) consultations with experts 
together  with  bibliographical  and  statistical  surveys  to  define  the  scope  of  the 
problematics;  2)  in-firm  observations  using  a  specific  method,  namely  ETED 
(Emploi type étudié dans sa dynamique - typical job studied in its dynamics), which 
analyses the competences involved in different  jobs and the various possibilities for 
skill  enhancement;  3)  labour-market  studies,  and  more  specifically  on  the 
conditions of access to jobs. 

Industrial maintenance is the most recent field of research and will be presented 
in this paper. The experts interviewed prior to the in-firm investigations highlighted 
three major changes likely to modify to a greater or lesser extent the occupations, 
the  structure  and  the  content  of  activities  in  the  sector:  the  introduction  of 
predictive  methods,  the  redistribution  of  activities  inside  and  outside  firms,  and 
standardisation and quality certifications. In-firm studies were conducted in twelve 
firms  varying  in  size  and  core  activity. They  measured  the  real  impact  of those 
changes  and  forecast  their  consequences  for  work  organisations  and  skill 
requirements.  Three  occupational  profiles  were  drawn  up  on  the  basis  of 
observations in the field and accounts from  professionals.  Skill requirements were 
therefore  identified  for the coming years. 

(')  The  following  text  is  largely  in  the  form  of  extracts  from  Céreq  document  159:  "Maintenance 
industrielle:  quels  emplois?  quelles  formations?"  [Industrial  maintenance:  what  jobs?  what 
training?],  November 2001. 

Industrial maintenance in France: 
new and traditional skill requirements 

87 

i. 

Introduction 

The context  of the study: a tried and tested  method 

Since  1980, the  French  Ministry  of  Education  has  been encouraging  studies 
of skill  requirements  in the  main  sectors  of  the  French  economy  in  order  to 
obtain an up-to-date  picture  of these  requirements  every five years. The  aim 
is to make it easier to adapt the content of vocational training schemes to the 
needs of the production  system.  In order to illustrate the outcome of this  kind 
of approach we have taken the case of industrial maintenance, which has just 
been  the  subject  of  such  a  study.  The  focus  of  industrial  maintenance,  it 
should  be  borne  in  mind, is  the  production  process  rather  than  the  finished 
product. 

1.2.  Some  method  details: a three-stage  strategy 
The first  stage  was  to  specify  the  research  area through  consultations  with 
experts, together  with  a summary  of  bibliographical  and statistical  data. The 
teachers  and  well-known  professional 
experts 
practitioners  in this  sector. 

included  consultants, 

Studies  in  enterprise  then  made  it  possible  to  check  the  hypotheses 
sketched  out  at  the  previous  stage.  All  the  people  working  in  the  research 
field, from engineers to operatives, were examined using an original  method: 
ETED  (emploi-type  étudié  dans  sa  dynamique  -  typical  job  studied  in  its 
dynamic). This  method  makes it possible to take  account  of any variations  in 
the content  and  scope  of  the  work  performed  by  persons  in the job,  as  well 
as the various  ways  in which  people  performing  this work can  progress. (2) 

In parallel, an analysis of the operation of the labour  market, looking chiefly 
at the employment  conditions  of the jobs  studied, made  it possible to  specify 
how  the  training  supply  from  the  education  and  training  system  could  be 
geared to enterprise  skill  requirements. 

2.  Defining  the  research  area: three  main  questions 

2.1.  Technological  determinism 
Up to the 1950s, the principle of maintenance  was one of action following the 
onset  of  a  malfunction.  The  key  words  were  therefore  'changing'  (i.e. 
diagnosing, repairing, maintaining)  and  improving  machinery. 

(2)  Nicole  Mandón,  Emmanuel  Sulzer:  Analysis  of  work:  describing  competences  through  a  dynamic 

approach  to jobs.  Training  and  Employment,  No 33, Autumn  1998. 

88 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

There  was  a  shift  away  from  this  kind  of  corrective  maintenance  in  the 
1960s  and  1970s  towards  preventive  and  systematic  maintenance.  From 
then  on, the  function  of  maintenance  was  less  to  repair  machinery  than  to 
ensure that it was functioning, thereby  reducing  plant down times, in view of 
the  following  observation:  neglecting  maintenance  cost  ten  times  more  il 
there was  a breakdown  or  production  stoppage. The  context,  nevertheless, 
was  one  of  a  variable  geometry  production  system  that  had  to  cope  with 
uncertainty.  Maintenance  did  not  escape  these  constraints.  If  it  had  more 
than  ever  to  'cope',  it  also  had  to  ensure  that  production  machinery  was 
maximally  available. 

This  led to the development  of systematic preventive maintenance, which 
was  felt,  however,  to  have  a  number  of  drawbacks.  The  most  frequent 
objection  was  the  fact  that  systematic  preventive  maintenance  operations 
could  well  disturb  the  correct  operation  of  machinery.  'Action  leading  to 
breakdowns' seemed particularly  probable  in production processes using old 
machinery.  It was  also felt that  applying  systematic  preventive  maintenance 
could  run  counter  to  the  need  to  keep  operating  costs  under  control. The 
costs  generated  by  this  type  of  maintenance  were  recurrent  and  known 
because action included, among other things, the systematic  replacement of 
parts  (as  a function, for  instance,  of  duration  of  use)  during  the  life cycle of 
the machinery, in some cases  requiring production  stoppages. 

These  constraints  go  a  long  way  towards  explaining  why  systematic 
preventive  maintenance  was  gradually  'naturally'  supplanted  by preventive 
conditional  maintenance.  This  confirmed  the  role  of  maintenance  in 
optimising  production  machinery:  from  then  on,  rather  than  ensuring  that 
equipment  was  available, the  target  was  to  make  production  machinery  as 
reliable as possible  in order to satisfy  'zero deadline, zero defect' policies. 

The  development  and  improvement  of  techniques  and  technologies  and 
the  development  of  monitoring  and diagnostic  instruments  made  it  possible 
to  introduce  breakdown  forecasting  techniques  and then  to  move  on to the 
final  stage;  forward  (also  called  predictive)  maintenance.  Linked  to 
conditional  maintenance,  this  kind  of  maintenance  is  based  on  a  historical 
analysis  of breakdowns, defect symptoms  and observed  levels of wear from 
which  specific  plans  of  action  for  each  machine  can  be  drawn  up  following 
the definition  of critical thresholds. 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new and traditional  skill  requirements 

89 

2.2.  Integration  into  production  and  outsourcing 
2.2.1.  Integration  into  production 
There is no doubt that these trends in maintenance led to a new  development 
in  which  the  maintenance  function,  particularly 
'routine'  maintenance, 
became part of production. The development  of preventive  maintenance  (the 
systematic  linked  to  the  conditional)  led,  therefore,  to  the  introduction  of 
equipment  action,  maintenance  and  monitoring  plans.  The 
routine 
maintenance  operations  included  in  these  plans  were  then  systematic  and 
prescribed.  They 
included  monitoring  various  components,  lubrication, 
cleaning, adjustment  and  re-alignment  operations  and even the  replacement 
of some  equipment  components  or  parts.  The  performance  of  these  tasks 
was  specified  in  planning  sheets.  They  could  be  performed  by  production 
staff  who  had  been  made  aware  of  the  importance  of  their  correct 
performance  and  had  the  advantage  of  an  excellent  knowledge  of  the 
machinery. 

At the same time, innovative  approaches to  maintenance  were  also  being 
developed: TPM  (Total  Production  Maintenance),  MBZ  (Maintenance  Base 
Zero),  ACP  (Production  Capacity  Assurance).  Self-maintenance,  where  all 
production  personnel  played  their  part  in  routine  maintenance,  was  a  core 
principle  of TPM.  MBZ was  based  on the  principle of  the  utility  of  an  activity 
for the  enterprise  and  led  to  the  relevance  of  tasks  to  be  reviewed. As  the 
enterprise's objective was production and not maintenance, the result of MBZ 
was to shift  maintenance  tasks  into production. 

2.2.2.  Outsourcing 
There  seems  to  be  a  general  consensus  as  regards  the  outsourcing  of 
maintenance:  over  the  last  ten  years  it  has  become  standard  practice  and 
has grown  apace  in recent times. 

Outsourcing  takes  a number  of  standard forms: 

•  subcontracting  using  'hired  labour':  the  principal  has  a  labour  force  for  a 

certain  period that  he can  use as  he sees  fit; 

•  'straight-cost'  subcontracting:  the  principal  describes  the  work 

in  a 

specification  and  organises  its performance  and  monitoring; 

•  'fixed-price'  subcontracting:  a  set  result  is  laid  down  and  it  is  up  to  the 
subcontractor  to  organise  work  in  order  to  achieve  this  result  within 
previously  set deadlines  and quality  levels; 

•  ad hoc subcontracting  based  on the  principle  of  performance. 

There has  undoubtedly  been an increase  in 'straight-cost'  and  'fixed-price' 
subcontracting  although  ad  hoc  work  continues  to  be  large-scale  in  small 
enterprises.  How far  can outsourcing  go? 

90 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Growing  standardisation 

Standards  cover  a  whole  range  of  fields  and  concern  the  maintenance 
function  directly  (standard  FD  X  60000)  or  less  directly  (standards  on 
contracts, documentation, quality  assurance). 

The ISO 9000 standards were drawn up in 1997 and have been constantly 
revised  since  then  (important  dates:  1997  and  2000).  Standards  9000  and 
9004  are  quality  system  management  guides.  Standards  9001, 9002  and 
9003 are quality  reference frameworks. 

Enterprises  look  for  ISO  9000  certification  for  a whole  range  of  reasons. 
First, enterprises  may be committed  overall to  a total  quality  policy  and any 
measures that they introduce have to be incorporated into maintenance work. 
Second,  maintenance  departments  may decide  off  their  own  bat  separately 
to apply such a strategy in order internally to improve their work. Third, under 
pressure  (whether  by  way  of  encouragement  or  compulsion)  from  client 
enterprises,  it  may  be  in  the  interests  of  service  provider  enterprises  to  be 
able to demonstrate  certification  under  a particular  standard  in order to gain 
the upper  hand over their competitors when responding to a call for tenders. 
AFNOR  has in this case laid down a framework  structuring the contractual 
obligations of principals and contractors (standards X 60-100, 101, 102, 103) 
covering  technical,  legal  and  financial  clauses  and  calls  for  tender.  Bodies 
certified  by the  Ministry  of  Industry  attest  the  conformity  of  service  provider 
enterprises  with  the  ISO  9000  (quality)  and  ISO  14000  (quality  of  the 
industrial  environment)  reference  frameworks.  This  rationalises  customer-
supplier  relations, since the former  do  not  need to carry  out audits  to check 
the quality  of the service  provider. 

3. 

(3) 

Different  types of  maintenance  continue to  co-exist 

Although there  is little doubt  about the sequence  corrective  maintenance  -> 
systematic preventive maintenance -> conditional preventive maintenance -> 
predictive  maintenance,  it cannot  be seen as unequivocal and  omnipresent. 
Predictive  (forward)  maintenance  is  certainly  not  a  panacea.  Not  all 
enterprises  have  as yet  reached this advanced  stage of  maintenance, even 
though  it  may  be  one  of  their  stated  objectives.  There  also  seems  to  be 
something  of  a  regression, in  both  discourse  and  practice, for  two  reasons: 

(3)  These  surveys  concerned twelve  enterprises  of all sizes  in different  sectors. 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

91 

technological  and financial. Even though conditional preventive  maintenance 
helps to some  extent to  limit the costs  of systematic  procedures  by triggering 
maintenance  operations  in  an  optimum  way,  its  main  drawbacks  lie  in  the 
major  investment  it  requires  in  monitoring  and  analysis  instruments  and  the 
high  labour  costs  it generates  (personnel  training  costs, costs  of  a skilled or 
even highly skilled labour force which  has to be permanently  employed in the 
enterprise). 

In  practice,  firms  conducting  an  innovative  maintenance  policy  are 
attempting  less  to  minimise  the  internal  costs  of  maintenance  work  than  to 
make them  viable,  i.e.  to  generate  a positive  cost/efficiency  ratio.  It  may  be 
economically  viable  in  the  same  enterprise  to  apply  systematic  preventive 
maintenance  to  a particular  production  process  involving  a  key  product  with 
a  high  profit  margin,  whereas  curative  maintenance  may  be  the  only 
'economically  viable' kind of  maintenance for  other  products.  It may be  quite 
rational for the enterprise  to give priority  largely to curative  maintenance  and 
to minimise the proportion  of systematic  preventive  maintenance for  reasons 
connected chiefly, for instance, with the age of the  machinery  and experience 
and familiarity  in repairing  its  malfunctions. 

It  is  therefore  impossible  to  sketch  out  any  general,  or  overall,  trends  in 
maintenance  in  enterprise.  The  stance  that  enterprises  take  on  the  various 
types  of  maintenance  is  shaped  by  technical  and  financial,  internal  and 
external,  factors  (for 
the  frequency  of  cyclical  or  random 
breakdowns  of  machinery,  the  abilities  and  competences  of  maintenance 
staff  and subcontracting  services,  methods of work  organisation, competitive 
position in the  market  by  product,  etc.). 

instance 

Keeping  a maintenance  function  in the  enterprise 

There  are  two  conflicting  opinions  about  the  future  of  maintenance 
outsourcing. 

First scenario:  outsourcing  of  the  maintenance  function  will  continue.  Those 
factors  felt  to  play  a  part  in  encouraging  enterprises  to  subcontract  part  of 
their activities have  much to do with this: strategic, organisational, budgetary, 
technical and  human factors: 
•  technologically,  outsourcing  is,  for  the  enterprise,  a  gauge  of  quality  and 
is  performed  by  professionals  and 

efficiency  as  maintenance  work 
specialists; 

•  from  an  organisational  point  of  view,  the  current  trend  among  enterprises 
to  re-focus  on  their  core  function,  on  what  they  are  able  to  do,  may  be 
reflected  by  the  delegation  of  anything  outside  this  function. Similarly,  the 

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Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

spread  of  new  methods  and  organisations  such  as  TPM  and  MBZ  is 
increasing the propensity to outsource  some  maintenance fields; 

•  lastly, from a financial  point of view, outsourcing of maintenance  minimises 
maintenance  costs.  The  enterprise  pays  per  'service'  and  does  not 
therefore  have  to  bear  the  costs  of  a  large  maintenance  division  that  is 
permanently on call in the enterprise (to cope with general and/or specialist 
overhauls).  However,  there  may  be  human  resources  problems  here, 
connected  with  the  motivation  and  integration  of  staff  permanently 
available  in the enterprise  but called on only from time to time. 

Second scenario: the three above arguments are used to justify the opposite 
opinion  that  the  growth  of  maintenance  outsourcing  will  level  off  or  even 
decline  in some cases: 
•  from  a technological  and  organisational  point  of  view,  outsourcing  of  the 
maintenance  function  has  grown  because  it  concerned  various  factors 
peripheral to the hard core of production, i.e. to the core of the enterprise's 
trade.  When  this  stage  of  outsourcing  is  reached,  it  cannot  continue 
because  it  would  place  the  enterprise  on  too  fragile  a  footing.  The 
counterpart  to  advanced  outsourcing  is the  loss  of  a degree  of  autonomy 
over  the  management  of  the  production  process,  with  maintenance 
operations  becoming  key  stages  in  the  production  continuum.  The  loss, 
moreover,  of  a field  of  competence  and  knowledge  to  which  outsourcing 
leads  seems  to  be a  process  that  is difficult  (and  certainly  very  costly)  to 
reverse  because of ongoing technological  development; 

•  the  enterprise  is  unable  to  stand  back  and  assess  the  value  of the  work: 
the principal becomes completely  unable to assess the quality of work and 
in  particular  the  pertinence  of  the  costs  invoiced.  Overall, outsourcing  of 
the  maintenance  function  is  a practice  that  now  seems  to  have  come  up 
against some limits. 
Although  there  is  little  doubt  that  sector,  size,  enterprise  strategies  and 
national or international competitive situations  may shape major divergences 
from  these  two  stances,  it  is  difficult,  at  a  macroeconomic  level,  to  decide 
between  continuing  outsourcing  or  levelling  off  or  even  decline.  Some 
enterprises are pursuing these two strategies  (outsourcing/ internalisation)  at 
one  and  the  same  time:  Renault,  for  instance,  has  decided  for  strategic 
reasons  to  outsource  line  maintenance  to  service  provider  companies  only 
during the  last two years of a model's life. 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

93 

Standardisation: a  new form  of  prescription 

In  addition  to  criticisms  of  the  cost  of  certification  and  introduction  of  IT 
methods,  several  interviewees  stressed  their  constraining  nature.  What 
seems  to  be  the  problem  is  not  so  much  the  standards  and  methods 
themselves  but  the  practices  that  are  inferred  from  them.  If  an  enterprise 
already  has  a coherent  organisation  and  management  methods,  certification 
of compliance with a standard should  merely  involve the simple  formalisation 
(writing down)  of  procedures  already  in place. 

However, if the  enterprise  has not  regulated  (or has done  little to  regulate) 
maintenance  in  the  past,  certification  may  well  entail  major  upheavals. 
Quality strategies  are demanding  in various  areas, including and in particular 
the  formalisation  of  procedures:  there  are  heavy  constraints  in  terms  of 
documentation. This  may  include  drawing  up  a quality  manual, updating  the 
various  documents,  keeping  control  of  quality  records  through  accurate 
histories  of  defects,  preventive  maintenance  operations,  new  work 
measures, etc. 

When  enterprises  opt  for  certification,  there  are  a  number  of  effects  on 
maintenance  jobs.  The  most  significant  trend  is  the  growth  of  prescriptive 
action, which  is being reflected by an increasing amount of writing  up of work. 
In  terms  of  competences  possessed  and  used,  this  bears  out  the  trend 
mentioned  above:  need  for  minutiae,  meticulous  work  and  respect  of  rules. 
Some  employees  feel  that  the  counterpart  to  this  is  a  loss  of  initiative  and 
autonomy  and  of  a  standardisation  of  work.  Looked  at  positively,  however, 
writing  up  makes  it  possible  to  gain  a  better  view  of  the  work  actually 
performed  and  thus  to  make  the  most  of  the  competences  that  people 
possess (Campinos-Dubernet  and Marquette, 1998). The resultant workload, 
linked  with  the  requirements  of  'traceability'  inherent  in  writing  up,  may  be 
substantially  alleviated  by  means, for  instance, of CAM. 

4.  Enterprise  surveys:  structuring  of  activities 

and jobs 

4 i.  Description  of  standard  jobs 
Analysis  of  the  interviews  conducted  in  the  various  sample  enterprises 
allowed  us  to  pinpoint  three  standard  jobs,  two  at  'maintenance  technician' 
level  -  a  maintenance  action  technician  and  a  maintenance  methods 
technician -  and  one  at  'maintenance  operative' level. 

The  standard  'maintenance  operative' job  has  largely  technical  functions 
which  are  also  covered  by the  action  technician.  Similarly,  the  two  standard 

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Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

technician jobs overlap in a number of areas (see Figure). The specific nature 
of  each  of these standard jobs  is then shaped  by the fact that  their  ultimate 
objectives differ.  (4) 

Figure  1.  Standard  maintenance jobs 

ACTION 
TECHNICIAN 

Diagnosis  -  Repair 
(curative  maintenance) 

MAINTENANCE 
OPERATIVE 

Planned  operations 
(preventive  maintenance) 
•  Inspection -  Monitoring 
•  Improvement  of action 

methods 

7 

Formulation of 
methods 
Budget follow-up 

-J 

METHOD 
TECHNICIAN 

m* 

Technical  extension 
•  Repair, manufacture, 
modification  of  parts 
or control  programs 
•  Technical assistance 

Supervisory  extension 
•  Information 
management 
•  Human resource 
management 

Warehouse  extension 
•  Management  of spare 
parts and  materials 
procurement 

•  Definition  of technical 
properties  of  materials 

•  Technical and tariff 

statements to 
suppliers 
•  Reception of 

purchases and 
repaired parts 

Commercial  extension 
•  Commercial 
negotiation 

•  Customer  canvassing 

(4)  For  each  standard job, an Annex  contains  a  detailed  description  of  the  activities  performed  (table 
of occupational range) and the competences  mobilised (table of expertise in action). The Annex can 
be obtained  from the  author. 

Industhal  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

95 

4.2.  The  maintenance  operative 
The task of  maintenance  operatives  (i.e. their overall  purpose  in terms of the 
ETED  method)  is  to  repair  an  unexpected  breakdown  or  malfunction  as 
rapidly as possible  and at any time  (corrective  maintenance). They  may  also 
perform  preventive  operations  to improve the  performance  of  plant. 

In  the  case  of  corrective  maintenance,  an  operative  must  be  able  to 
identify  the  causes  of  the  equipment  malfunction  (location,  cause  of  the 
problem:  mechanical,  electrical,  etc.),  decide  on  the  type  of  action  needed 
and get  the  equipment  operating  again. These  successive  stages  of  action 
must  generally  have  short  turnaround  times,  particularly  if  they  entail  a 
temporary  production  stoppage. 

Bearing  in  mind  the  constraints  imposed  by  its  customer  delivery  deadlines, 
enterprise R (mail order sales) has set itself the mie that any unforeseen  breakdown 
should  be  repaired  in  ten  minutes.  This  time  imperative  consequently  shapes 
methods of action (number of people to be mobilised, type of operation: temporary 
or final repair, etc.) with the result that those involved are always under pressure. In 
enterprise S (iron and steel), the operative we interviewed told us 'we have machines 
here that give us problems. The buzzword  at present  is getting tonnage out and the 
machinery  is therefore  important...  we have to take action straight  away. In some 
cases it is important for the machine to work, and in other cases it is less critical, but 
in  all  cases  we  need  to  make  it  work  and  we  all  have  our  own  little  solutions. 
Sometimes what we do is a bit makeshift  and sometimes it is a bit more robust. This 
does not work too badly as long as we can set the train in motion again  ... In normal 
circumstances we have ten minutes to a quarter of an hour to take action and make 
repairs  ...'. 

More  generally, 

just-in-time  production  organisation  means 

that 
enterprises  need  to  keep  a skeleton  personnel  to  take  action  at  any  time  in 
case  of  emergency.  Corrective  maintenance  is, for  this  reason,  very  rarely 
handled  by  subcontractors,  except  in  cases  where  the  service  enterprise  is 
continuously  available  on  the  production  site,  for  instance,  as  a  result  of  a 
global maintenance  contract. 

In enterprise F, the compressed air system is subcontracted. The total outsourcing of 
nitrogen  production  and  follow-up  failed  because  it needed  immediately  available 
local  teams. Remote  monitoring  did  not  solve  the  problem  of  rapid  action,  which 
requires personnel  in situ. The company now works with local maintenance making 
it possible to deal with problems in short periods of time. 
Moreover,  although  enterprises  state that an  objective  is to  move  towards 
a  larger  number  of  scheduled  operations  in  order  to  reduce  inconvenient 
machine  stoppages  to  a  minimum,  in  many  cases  there  are  fairly  high 
breakdown  levels. 

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Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

In enterprise M  (electronic components)  which  has a whole  range of  resources to 
support  a  preventive  maintenance  policy,  the  head  of  the  maintenance  division 
estimates that corrective operations account  for 30% and  preventive  operations for 
70% of work. There are very similar proportions in some sectors of enterprises S and 
Ρ (cosmetics).  The  reverse  (70% corrective -  30% preventive)  seems  to  be  much 
more  the  case  in  enterprises  I  and  F (printing,  cosmetics)  where  a  systematic 
preventive  maintenance system  is fairly  new and  is being  introduced  gradually. In 
enterprise Τ (agri-foodstuffs)  corrective maintenance continues to be practised more 
or less exclusively on one very old production line for which, as the profit margin for 
the product in question is low, there has been no specific investment. 
These  stages  of  diagnosis  and  repair,  forming  the  core  of  the  work  of 
maintenance  operatives,  require  technical  skills  in  an  increasing  range  of 
disciplines  (mechanical  engineering,  pneumatics,  hydraulics,  automation, 
etc): the more complex the production machinery, the more sophisticated the 
skills. 

This range is borne out by what we were told by one of the maintenance operatives 
in enterprise M. Asked about the technical skills he used, he said: 'in the case of this 
machine,  electronics,  with  a  PC which  manages  the  robot  sequences.  After  that 
mechanical  engineering  with  anything  to  do  with  motors,  couplings,  robot 
movement belts, and pneumatics with the valves and jacks...' Another example was 
provided  by a skilled  mechanical  engineering  operative  in enterprise  S: 'we even 
have a little to do with electricity and understand something of the reasoning behind 
the hydraulic pans. As a result of working with them (the electricians), we are able 
to diagnose minor faults in the same way as they would  ...' 
The  introduction  of  'new  generation'  machinery  with  large  numbers  of 
electronic  components  seems  set  substantially  to  raise  the  level  of  the 
technical  competences  required  for  their  maintenance  (in  cases  where 
maintenance  does  not  simply  involve  the  replacement  of  defective  boards). 
In the  case  of  preventive  maintenance,  operatives  are  required  to  perform 
scheduled  operations  -  decided  by  the  technicians  - 
including  cleaning, 
lubrication,  changes  of  parts,  etc.,  but  also  to  detect  any  anomalies  in  the 
machinery  via  various  checks.  In  some  cases,  these  are  chiefly  sensory 
checks  (smell,  sight),  but  in other  cases  action  needs  to  be  taken. 

'I look round my machinery once a month, I do all the machines and make notes in 
accordance  with  the written  specification  ...  we  look  at a whole  range of things, 
pressure  deviations,  compressed  air,  robot  offsets,  the  general  condition  of  the 
machinery  ... if, in the case of a pressure reducer, it needs to be set to three bars of 
pressure, what I check is whether there has been any pressure variation from  one 
month to the next...  if it is a robot whose settings are going wrong and which is 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

97 

starting  to  put  the  baskets  sideways  in  the  acid  tank  or  some  other  problem,  we 
know  that  we  need  to  schedule  work  before  it  breaks  down  ...'.  Maintenance 
operative, enterprise M. 
In  contrast  to  diagnosis  and  repair  operations,  which  require  relatively 
advanced  and  varied  skills,  the  performance  of  preventive  operations 
mobilises fewer technical skills, when, for instance, it involves changing  parts 
or machine settings. This explains why some tasks, considered  routine, have 
been delegated  in certain firms to  production  operatives. 

In  enterprise  F,  setting  work  following  a  change  of  format  (product  packaging), 
performed  in the past by maintenance operatives, has been delegated to production 
workers. Similarly, in enterprise  M, the replacement  of electrodes (in an acid tank), 
scheduled by the maintenance division, is performed by the production worker who 
has been given the necessary training and electrical authorisations. 
These  examples  bear  out  the  most  recent  trends  in  maintenance,  i.e.  the 
transfer  of  routine  maintenance 
to  production 
workers.  Our  field  studies  tended  to  show,  however,  that  this  development  is 
far  from  being  the  case  everywhere. 

tasks  from  maintenance 

In enterprise R, it even became necessary to take a step backwards. The main work 
of  production  workers  is  to  package  parcels  of  various  articles,  which  arrive 
automatically  on  conveyor  belts. They  had  been  asked  to  take  responsibility  for 
routine  maintenance  tasks  at  their  own  workstation  (cleaning,  lubrication  of  the 
packaging line) but also to take action on the line in the event of minor  malfunctions 
(and  had been given a toolkit). The management  rapidly met with  a refusal  by the 
production workers -  mostly women -  to go any further  in this direction as they felt 
that this kind of work was not up to them and they did not hâve the necessary skills. 
As the work was  not  in practice being very well done, there were  more and  more 
problems. The line was then  developed  and  fitted  with a larger number of sensors; 
when  a  problem  comes  up  on  the  control  screen,  a  maintenance  operative  is 
immediately dispatched. 
We also found that  preventive operations  are more likely to be  outsourced 

to subcontractor  enterprises. 

In  enterprise  S,  for  instance,  where  production  is  continuous,  the  work  of 
maintenance  operatives  (working  in  shift  teams)  is  largely  corrective.  All  the 
preventive maintenance work has been  outsourced  to external operators largely for 
reasons of labour costs. In the unit surveyed, scheduled  stoppages may require, on 
the same day and taking account of the gigantic nature of the production  machinery 
(1 000 metres  long),  over  100 operations  performed  by over  200 people. It would 
obviously  be  impossible  for  the  enterprise  to  keep  this  number  of personnel  on a 
permanent basis. 

98 

Early  identification  of skill needs in  Europe 

Lastly,  maintenance  operatives  must  be able to  report  on operations  and 
events  that  have  occurred  in  order  to  keep  their  operative  or  technician 
colleagues  informed  both orally  and  increasingly  in writing  (in record books, 
by computer)  so as to facilitate  and improve methods of action. 

In the enterprises surveyed, we noted significant  numbers of  maintenance 
operatives in the largest concerns (principals) or service provider enterprises. 
They  were  fewer  in  number  or  not  to  be  found  at  all,  however,  in  the 
smaller  concerns  (200  or  fewer  employees).  Here,  maintenance  work  was 
largely the task of  maintenance technicians  (action technicians  in particular), 
whose  wide-ranging  profile  covers  the  necessary  requirements  (see  the 
beginning  of the following  paragraph). 

The  maintenance  technician: one level, two  profiles 

4.3.1.  The action technician 
As the above diagram shows, one of the specific features of standard jobs in 
industrial  maintenance  is that  they tend to  overlap. The  action  technician  is 
thus  required  to  perform  all  the  activities  of  the  maintenance  operative: 
diagnosis, repair, conduct  of scheduled operations,  monitoring, writing up. 

In practice,  the  boundary  between  operative  and technician  continues  in 
some  cases to  be fairly  hazy, in some  cases justifying  the choice  to  employ 
solely personnel with technician status. 

The  maintenance  division  of  enterprise  Τ has  a manager,  eight  technicians  and a 
project  manager  (research  -  new  works). Three  of  these  technicians  have  a CAP 
(Certificate of Vocational Aptitude) -  one in class 185 and 2 in class 190 -  two have 
a  MSMA Vocational  Baccalaureate  (classes  175  and  180)  and  three  have  a BTS 
(Higher  Technician's  Certificate)  in  industrial  maintenance  (class  185).  Six of  the 
technicians work eight-hour shifts (rotating between the three shifts) for three weeks 
and then work 'regular' hours for the following three weeks (08.00h -  17.00h). The 
other  two  technicians  work  only  regular  hours  but  are  on  call  at  weekends. The 
geographical division of the factory by production  line makes it possible to allocate 
each  technician  to a specific  area.  During  regular working  weeks, technicians are 
responsible  for preventive maintenance in their area and may also be called  at any 
time  by  their  shift  colleagues  if  they  are  needed.  The  shift  workers  are  chiefly 
responsible  for  corrective  maintenance. They  may  also be  involved  in  scheduled 
works.  In  this  example,  the  organisational  choice  explains  the  smoothing  of 
personnel status. 

Industrial  maintenance  in France: 
new and traditional  skill  requirements 

99 

However, the fact that they  possess  higher technical  skills than  operatives 

do works  in favour of action  technicians. 

In  enterprise  P,  the  technological  development  of  machinery  has  led  to  new 
maintenance profile needs. In the case of the  'old generation' machines, experience 
was important. The introduction of programmable robots now requires sophisticated 
knowledge  of  industrial  automation,  with  60  to  70%  of  operations  involving 
electronics. The profile of the current jobs requires multi-skilling developed from a 
solid initial grounding. Supervisors go as far as saying that most current technicians, 
even those with a BTS, have difficulties  because they lack basic knowledge. 
The  line  between  operative  and  technician  can  be  fairly  clearly  drawn 
when  looking  at the  overall  purpose  of the  latter. Technicians  tend  in  practice 
to  remedy  defects  in  equipment  by  seeking  and  implementing  appropriate 
technical  solutions  but  also  to  improve  machinery  performance  by  planning 
specific  measures. 

For  each  problem  identified, and making  use in particular  of the analysis 
instruments  available  (analysis  of  breakdown  levels,  analysis  of  vibrations, 
etc.), action technicians  must be able to study  appropriate technical  solutions 
and propose a set of preventive  measures  (cleaning of part of the plant, use 
of  a  stronger  gasket,  change  of  material,  etc.).  They  prepare,  plan  and 
coordinate  the  performance  of  these  measures.  For  this  purpose,  they 
procure the necessary  equipment  (spare parts, etc.) directly from suppliers or 
via the warehouse  division, set the dates on which the work  is to take  place, 
decide  the  nature  of  this  work,  and  decide  who  is  to  perform  the  work 
(operatives,  technicians  -  including  themselves  -  service  providers).  They 
ensure,  during  all operations,  that  they  are being  carried  out correctly  and 
comply  with  safety  rules,  set deadlines  and any written  procedures. At the 
end  of  each  work  sequence,  they  are also  responsible  for  monitoring  and 
approving the operations  carried out. 

They  also  have  to  draw  up  or  amend  written  procedures  (information 
sheets)  for  all  the  operations  performed  within  each  type  of  action  on 
particular  equipment. 

Action  technicians  have  jobs  in  'principal'  enterprises  and  in  service 

provider  enterprises. 

100 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

4.3.2. The method technician 
As in the case of maintenance operatives and action technicians, there is an 
overlap between the standard jobs of method technician and action 
technician (see diagram). 

The specific task of the method technician is to draw up, always with a 
view to improving operating methods, rules for work that take account of 
technical specifications, deadlines, costs and materials procurement, and to 
ensure that they are applied by the personnel of their enterprise and/or 
service providers. They must be able to identify and optimise the costs of 
maintenance work. 

Method technicians are therefore responsible for preparing for 

maintenance work by drawing up rules for work ­ whether this involves major 
or minor maintenance work on a particular machine or a set of machines from 
an entire production sector, or work in the enterprise or by a service provider. 
When preparing for maintenance work they draw up specifications for 
maintenance or new work, write up or amend operating procedures or 
information sheets and schedule operations following analyses of machine 
reliability (breakdown levels, etc.). They supervise ongoing operations and 
ensure that these are being performed correctly and in compliance with 
existing maintenance procedures (¡η­house rules or official standards). They 
also provide expert help with plans to improve equipment or, more widely, 
with investment plans. They draw up and analyse cost summaries and any 
gains from the operations conducted. 

In enterprise S, the area technical managers have this profile. They are allocated to 
each production unit and split between the two maintenance sectors: mechanical 
and electrical. Under the direct responsibility of the head of the maintenance division 
(mechanical or electrical), each area technical manager is responsible for part of the 
machinery. The area technical manager that we interviewed explained that there 
were three strands to his work: technical, financial and human. Technically, he has 
to be able to meet the objectives set by his supervisors in terms of equipment 
operation levels (mechanical sector). For this purpose, he draws up action plans 
(preventive maintenance) taking account of the annual maintenance plan drawn up 
jointly by the various sectors of the unit. During scheduled stoppages, he oversees 
the conditions in which work is being performed (safety, materials used, respect of 
specifications, deadlines, etc.). Financially, he is responsible for implementing the 
annual budget that he is allocated, where necessary justifying any overspend to his 
supervisors. From a human resource point of view, he manages the technicians 
(setters) under his responsibility allocating each technician's workload, checking 
their work and managing all aspects of their career advancement (intemews, 
assessment, etc.). 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

101 

This same enterprise  provides  another  example, this  time concerning  a technician 
(research  officer)  employed  in  the  electrical  division  (research  office)  for  general 
maintenance. His responsibilities  include ensuring that the electrical boards  located 
in  the  blast  furnace,  coking  and  charge  preparation  sectors  are  working.  For  this 
purpose, he draws up, according to a specification  devised in cooperation  with the 
sectors  technicians,  all  the  maintenance  operations  (cleaning,  changes  of 
components, etc.) to be carried  out during scheduled  plant stoppages. He puts this 
specification  out to tender and then selects, with his supervisors, the service provider 
enterprise responsible for carrying out all the maintenance work. He ensures that all 
operations  comply  with  safety  mies,  carries  out  inspections  and  where  necessary 
provides solutions or technical advice for the personnel of the outside enterprise. He 
studies  every  operation  report  forwarded  by  the  outside  enterprise  in  order  to 
identify  any  recurring  problems  so  that  they  can  be  resolved,  or  the  rate  of 
replacement  of some parts changed. 

4.3.3.  Activities  common  to the two  technician  profiles 
Our initial analyses,  as  well  as  individual  situations  and the  initial  groupings 
drawn  up  (see  ETED  method  in  the  section  on  methods),  showed  that  we 
probably  needed  to  add  extensions,  representative  of  four  areas  of  work 
involving  supervisory,  commercial,  disciplinary,  technical  and  warehouse 
management  competences,  to  the  core  activities  of  the  standard  jobs  of 
action technician  and  method  technician. These  may  all  be  stepping  stones 
for the advancement  of  both action  and  method technicians  (5). 

4.3.3.1.  Supervision 
In a  recent  study  looking,  among  others,  at  industrial  maintenance  trades 
(see  APRODI  report),  the  surveyors  drew  up  a  profile  for  a  maintenance 
investigations 
supervisor  alongside  the  maintenance 
showed,  however,  that  maintenance  divisions  tended  to  be  organised  in  a 
functional  rather  than  a  hierarchical  way  with  the  result  that  very  few 
employees  had  the  status  of  supervisors  responsible  solely  for  overseeing 
staff.  (6) We therefore  felt  it more appropriate  to incorporate  this kind of work 
as an extension  of the core work of the two  standard technician jobs. 

technician.  Our 

Supervisory  work  chiefly  involves  information  management  and  human 
resource  management.  In  the  first  case,  the  purpose  is  to  help  staff 
(technicians  and  operatives  as well  as  production  workers)  to  master  all  the 

(5)  For  each  extension, 

the  activities  performed 
(occupational  range)  a nd  the  c o m p e t e n c es  mobilised  (expertise  in  action).  T he  Annex  can  be 
obtained  from  the  author. 

the  A n n ex  contains  a  detailed  description  of 

(6)  This  c o m m e nt  is  borne  out  by  the  results  of  the  e m p l o y m e nt  survey  (see  below). 

102 

Early  identification  of skill needs in  Europe 

tasks  involved  in  or  instructions  for  the  performance  of  corrective  or 
preventive  operations, in particular  by offering them training, and to organise 
and  lead  meetings  to  ensure  that  organisational,  technical  and  regulatory 
information  is circulated. In the second case, technicians  are responsible for 
allocating the tasks to be performed to staff on the basis of their competences 
and availability. They may also draw up a chart of the competences  available 
within their team and possibly  propose ways  in which they can be improved. 
There is no doubt that the way in which the maintenance division's work is 
designed  shapes  whether  or  not these tasks  are  added to the core tasks of 
the standard  method and action technician jobs. 

It  is  only  when  there  is  a  greater  splitting  up  of  the  hierarchical  line  that 

staff  (particularly  action  technicians)  tend  to  lose  these  competences. 

This situation  arose  in enterprise  R  following  a reorganisation  of the  maintenance 
division. At the outset, operatives and technicians were answerable to the manager 
of the maintenance  division,  the technicians straddling  the two technician  profiles 
(action and method). At the time of the reorganisation, a specific methods office was 
set  up and  an  intermediate  hierarchical  line occupied  by area  technical  managers, 
with  responsibility  for  preventive  maintenance  work  and  personnel  management, 
was introduced  into each of the factory's geographical sectors. These area technical 
managers  were  recruited  by  promoting  the  existing  technicians  with  the  longest 
service. Technicians  who  were  not  promoted  doubled  up  with  the  operatives on 
work  almost  exclusively  involving  plant  repairs. This meant  that  some  technicians 
therefore lost -  in some cases with some resentment -  pan of their job. 

4.3.3.2.  Technicians' involvement  in the principal-service  provider  relationship 
As  already  mentioned, the  spread  of  subcontracting  practices  and  changes 
in  their  form  as  well  as  increased  competition  in  the  market  are  making  it 
necessary  to step  up service  provider  enterprises' commercial  relations  and 
place them on a more professional footing. 

While this is often the work of technical and commercial staff, the task may 

be taken up by personnel directly  involved  in maintenance  work. 

It seemed  necessary, therefore, to include a commercial  extension, which 
could  be  termed 
'commercial  negotiation',  to  take  account  of  the 
competences  required in order to obtain a particular  service at the best price 
and  by the  best  deadline. This  is work,  moreover,  in which  both  technicians 
employed  in  'principal'  enterprises  and  in  service  provider  enterprises  are 
involved. 

A second activity involves canvassing for customers in order to maintain or 
expand  the  enterprise's  activity.  Technicians  employed  in  service  provider 
enterprises  are more involved here. 

Industrial  maintenance  in  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

103 

These  two  extensions  may  pave  the  way  for  a  shift  towards  chiefly 
technical  and  commercial  functions  in  an  enterprise  (although  this  kind  of 
path did  not crop up during  our  interviews). 

In enterprise A (service provider), the technician that we interviewed, with an action 
technician  profile,  has to approach  enterprises  in his region. Using the  enterprise's 
literature and brochures, he presents his enterprise's most important achievements to 
potential  customers.  After  drawing  up  an  estimate  for  his  customer's  order,  the 
technician  has  to  present  this  estimate  himself  and  justify  the  choices  made 
(suppliers, type of materials, human  resources,  etc.). Aged  26, this technician  has a 
BTS in mechanical robotics. At the interview, he stressed  the multi-skilled  nature of 
his  job  as  he  deals  with  "business'  both  upstream  (canvassing,  estimates, 
performance)  and downstream (invoicing, chasing up 'bad payers'). 

4.3.3.3.  Disciplinary  technical  profiles 
Over  and  above  general  technical  knowledge 
in  the  main  disciplines 
(electricity, mechanical engineering, hydraulics), some  people  in the job have 
training 
skills 
(electromechanics,  electronics,  etc.),  or  specialist  skills  with  certain  plant 
acquired  from  occupational  experience.  In  both  cases  the  jobholder  is  then 
considered to  be an expert  in a particular  field. 

technical  area  acquired 

in  a  sophisticated 

initial 

in 

The  first  purpose  to  which  these  technical  competences  are  put  involves 
the  repair,  production  or  modification  of  parts  or  of  control  programs.  This 
makes  it  necessary  to  provide,  within  set  deadlines,  the  parts  or  control 
programmes  needed  for  the  correct  operation  of  machinery.  The  second 
purpose involves technical assistance and, in this case, technicians  help their 
colleagues  (technicians  or  supervisors) 
is 
malfunctioning  and to work  out the  most  appropriate  action to take. 

to  identify  why  machinery 

One of the technicians interviewed in enterprise S, allocated to the central mechanical 
workshop (division  responsible  for supplying  the whole  of the factory  with  new or 
repaired mechanical spare parts) is a specialist  in tribology and fractology  (methods 
of  analysing  component  wear  from  its  surface,  perceptible  friction,  etc.).  He  thus 
helps  his  technician  colleagues  in  the  sector  to  locate  the  cause  of  the  wear  of 
mechanical components whether this involves premature ageing or actual breaks. 

4.3.3.4.  Warehouse  management  profiles 
The  warehouse  management  work  for  which  maintenance  technicians  are 
responsible  is  in  four  main  areas:  managing  spare  parts  and  materials 
procurement,  drawing  up  the  technical  properties  of  materials,  providing 
suppliers  with  technical  information  and  price  statements,  and  receiving 
purchases  and  repaired  components. 

104 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

This  extension  of the  maintenance  technician  profile  depends  exclusively 
on the  way  in which the  enterprise  is  organised.  In some  cases,  personnel 
attached to the warehouse  (whom we did not include among our jobholders) 
are  responsible  for  all  work  connected  with  spare  parts  and  materials 
management.  In  other  cases,  maintenance  technicians  are  responsible  for 
some or all of the four  main activities described above. 

One  of  the  method  technicians  of  enterprise  S is,  for  instance,  responsible  for 
procuring (in the case of new plant) or re-procuring (in the case of plant already in 
service)  spare  parts  for  the  factory's  electrical  equipment,  i.e.  some  22 000 article 
codes. For this purpose, he has to draw up a technical sheet (detailed description of 
the equipment, quantity of parts to be stocked, etc.) and allocate a code number for 
each new electrical part used  in the factory.  He studies every new request  for new 
supplies from the area technicians using the IT equipment available (CAM software) 
and  draws  up  a  purchase  request  which  he  passes  on  to  the  factory's  purchase 
department. He checks the conformity  of the equipment ordered  when  it arrives at 
the  warehouse.  He  decides,  where  appropriate,  on  the  quantities  of  parts  to  be 
ordered and gears their delivery deadlines to their frequency  of use. 

5.  Labour  market  and  entry  into  employment 

Training  in  maintenance  is  undeniably  an  asset  when  looking  for  a  job. 
People  leaving such training  are  more often  in employment  than  others  and 
these  jobs  are  more  often  permanent  and  well  paid...  albeit  outside  the 
maintenance  field  (see  table)!  It  would  seem  training  of  a  multidisciplinary 
nature  helped  people  find  jobs  offering  better  working  conditions,  whether 
immediately  or after  a period of employment  in maintenance. 

In this context, maintenance jobs in the business services sector are a kind 
of turntable which both offers work to people leaving training and re-allocates 
them to other tasks: 
•  from one year to the next, one out of five people  leave or enter this sector; 
•  new  recruits  are  almost  equally  divided  between  training  leavers,  the 

unemployed  and employees working  in other  sectors; 

•  slightly under one third of those leaving become jobseekers, and the others 

enter the other sectors of the economy; 

•  in  this  sector,  there  is  a  20  to  30%  turnover  in  numbers  in  the  various 

maintenance trades. 

Industrial  maintenance  ¡n  France: 
new  and traditional  skill  requirements 

105 

Table  1.  Breakdown  of jobs, at the survey  date,  held  by  industrial 

maintenance  training  leavers,  by training  level 

Level  III 

Level IV 

Level V 

NO 

7o 

NO 

To 

NO 

Vo 

57 

0 

5 

0 

162 

13 

0 

47 

39 

40 

215 

178 

390 

84 

0 

4 

3 

3 

18 

15 

32 

7 

659 

209 

80 

0 

315 

54 

17 

1798 

823 

391 

0 

15 

5 

40 

145 

2 

0 

7 

1 

0 

41 

19 

9 

0 

21 

0 

80 

0 

0 

1448 

356 

102 

42 

1212 

100 

4 346 

100 

2 234 

2 

6 

1 

0 

4 

0 

0 

65 

16 

5 

2 
100 J 

Industrial  maintenance  operative 

Manual setter 

Industrial  maintenance technician and 
supervisor 

Industrial  maintenance  manager 

Blue-collar/white-collar  maintenance 
worker  (other  sectors) 

Middle  maintenance  occupation 
(other  sectors) 

Maintenance  manager  (other  sectors) 

Other manual workers 

Other white-collar  workers 

Other middle  occupations 

Other managers 

Total 

Source: Céreq -  Survey  '1992 Generation'. 

6. 

Reviewing the situation in France in order in terms of forecasting  qualification 
needs,  and  in  turn  to  provide  a  starting  point  for  the  definition  of  training 
needs, leads  us to  stress three  points: 
•  it  is  difficult  to  project  beyond  a  period  of  five  to  ten  years  if  qualitative 
information  on the  content  of work  and the  structure  of jobs  is to  be taken 
into  account; 

•  current  work  needs  to  be  researched  in  greater  depth  as  regards  the 
mechanisms  by  which  occupations,  the  labour  market  and  training 
pathways  are  renewed.  Much  more  thought  is  needed  here  about  the 
validation  of experience  and lifelong training; 

•  the  results  put forward  provide  a starting  point  for decisions  by the  actors, 

but  in no way  constitute  ready-made  solutions. 

Identifying future  qualification 
needs  in the  transport  sector 
in the  United  Kingdom:  has  the 
scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

Tom Leney,  Institute of Education,  University of London,  United Kingdom 

This paper outlines how the scenarios method is being used to help identify  future 
qualification  needs in three industries -  motor, rail, and road haulage -  within the 
UK's transport sector. It describes the scenarios methodology as a complementar)' 
tool to help develop future  training needs in the industries concerned. The paper 
describes  a  recently  developed  series  of  scenarios  and  the  next  steps  in  this 
ongoing project. 

i. 

Introduction 

This  paper  describes  in  outline  the  method  that  a  team  of  consultants  is 
developing  in collaboration  with  the  regulatory  authority  for  qualifications  in 
England (The Qualifications  and Curriculum Authority; QCA)  in attempting to 
be  more  forward-looking  in  identifying  future  qualifications  needs  in  three 
industries within the  UK's transport  sector. 

A recurrent  problem  in  identifying  future  skills  and  qualifications  needs  is 
that the policy  makers in government  and in the industries concerned tend to 
concentrate  on  immediate  needs  and  past  experience,  and  often  fail  to 
capture  future  needs  effectively  (Green  and  Hartley,  2000).  Since  new 
qualifications  take  several  years to design, develop  and  implement, this  is a 
critical  issue  to  tackle,  if  qualifications  are  to  be  fit-for  purpose  in  a  fast-
changing environment. Conventional forecasting techniques have not proved 
sufficiently  effective,  either  in  identifying  longer-term  needs  in  a  future 
characterised  in part  by  uncertainties, or as a way of  opening  up a strategic 
conversation  among  policy  makers  and  stakeholders  as  to  how  to  make 
effective  provision  to  meet  future  training  and  qualifications  needs  (Descy 
and Tessaring, 2000; pages 299-314). The scenarios  methodology  may offer 

Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in the  transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdom: has  the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

107 

at  least  a  partial  solution  to  these  problems,  if  it  is  used  alongside  more 
traditional  techniques.  Mike  Coles'  paper  in  this  collection  deals  more  fully 
with these considerations,  and should  be read  in conjunction  with this  paper. 
This  paper  describes  work  that  is  in  progress  at  the  time  of  writing.  It 
identifies  why  we  are  attempting  to  use  the  scenarios  methodology  as  an 
additional  tool to  help  develop  more  rounded  consideration  of future  training 
needs in the transport  industries  concerned. The paper outlines the  progress 
made  in  Phase  1  of  the  research,  in  which  we  developed  a  series  of 
scenarios for the transport  sector  in the  UK  and for the three  industries  with 
which  we  are  working  in  particular.  Then  the  method  that  we  are  using  for 
Phase 2 is outlined. 

2.  Context  and  issues 

The UK government's  Qualifications  and Curriculum Authority  and the  author 
have  worked  with  other  UK  agencies  -  together  with  Cedefop  and  an 
international  team  - to  develop  a  scenario  methodology  that  can  be  used  in 
education  and  training  planning  (Van  Wieringen  et  al.,  2001;  Leney  and 
Coles, 2001; QCA  Research, 2002; Coles, 2002; Coles  and Leney, 2002). 

In the UK we  have recently begun to apply the approach to three  industries 
in the transport sector:  rail,  road  haulage  and the  motor  industry. The work  is 
at quite  an  early  stage, and this  paper  concentrates  on the  output  of  Phase 
1 and the methods we have decided to use in Phase 2. At a later stage  I hope 
to be able to  report on the outcomes  of our  work. 

3.  The  task  identified 

QCA and the Transport  Skills Alliance  (an  umbrella  employers'  group  in the 
sector)  have  commissioned  an  analysis  that  will  use  scenarios  thinking 
alongside  more  traditional  tools  such  as  forecasting,  functional  and 
occupational  analysis.  The  purpose  is  to  identify  the  kinds  and  contents  of 
qualifications  that  may  be  needed  a decade  or  so from  now  in the  transport 
industries. 

The  aims  of the  project  can be summarised  as follows. 
Firstly,  the  project  aims  to  facilitate  stakeholders'  thinking,  particularly  in 
the  sectoral  and  government  agencies,  about  how 
to  modernise 
qualifications  to  meet  future  needs.  We  are  applying  the  scenarios 
methodology  to  provide  a  language  for those  involved  to  look  at  options  for 

108 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

the future, and in a way that research suggests happens little at present. See 
Mike Coles' paper to this Conference. 

Secondly, 

team  will 

the  project 

reach  conclusions  and  make 
recommendations  on  the  extent  to  which  current  qualifications  in  the 
industries  concerned are likely to  prove fit-for-purpose-  in the future. We will 
use  scenarios  and  more  traditional  techniques  to  identify  new  skills, 
competences  and perhaps kinds of knowledge that  may need to be built into 
qualifications. 

Thirdly,  we  will  reflect  on  the  outcome  of  using  the  scenarios  method 
alongside  other  tools,  and  report  our  conclusions  as to  whether  (and, if so, 
how)  scenarios  methods  can  be  built  more  routinely  into  skills  and 
qualifications  needs analysis. 

4. 

The project falls into two distinct stages. 

The  remit  for  Stage  1 was  to  develop  sets  of  scenarios  for  the  transport 
industries specified, focusing on the year 2012, without a particular emphasis 
on skills or qualifications  needs. 

Phase  1 is complete. The following  are now available. 

1.  A set of four  meta-scenarios for the transport sector  in the  UK for 2012; 
2.  A  set  of  four  more  detailed  scenarios  for  each  of  the  three  industries 

identified in the  sector; 

3.  A quantification  (by industry  and scenario) of each of the key criteria used 

to construct the sets of more detailed scenarios. 
Phase  1  began  with  desk  research.  Working  with  lain  Mackinnon,  an 
expert  in skills  needs  analysis  in the transport  sector, we examined  much of 
the  published  analysis  of  skills  needs  for  the  UK  (e.g.  National  Skills  Task 
Force, 2000; 1ER, 2001)  and, in particular,  trends for  the different  industries 
in the  transport  sector  (e.g.  Department  of  the  Environment,  Transport  and 
the  Regions,  2001; Mackinnon  and  Cooper,  2001; Strategic  Rail  Authority, 
2001).  Indeed, lain  had undertaken significant  amounts  of this  research. We 
used  the  published  industry-specific  analyses  to  understand  current 
forecasts of future skills needs (MITC, 2001 ; RHDTC, 2001 ; RITC, 2001). We 
also  analysed  carefully  the  transport  strategies  of  the  UK  government 
(Department  of  the  Environment,  Transport  and  the  Regions,  2000)  and  a 
number of  large local authorities, as well as the policies of key  lobby groups. 
We  wanted  to  begin  by  developing  holistic  scenarios  for  the  transport 
sector.  Initially, this  was  made  more  difficult  by  the  focus  of  our  remit.  This 

Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in the transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdom: has  the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

109 

included  the  rail  industry  (freight,  passengers  and  the  infrastructure),  road 
haulage  (i.e. goods carrying, but not people or passenger carrying aspects of 
road transport)  and  the  motor  industry  (i.e. sales  and  service).  Our  specific 
remit did not include  air and  maritime transport  industries. However, the  UK's 
Department of Trade and  Industry  (DTI)  had established  a Foresight  Futures 
Unit, which  had developed four scenarios for the future  of industry  in the  UK, 
and these  were  made  available to  us as we were  conducting  our  work 

From  these  we  were  able  to  devise  four  scenarios  for  the  future  of 

transport as a whole  in 2012. The titles  are: 

Scenario  1 :  World  Markets 

Scenario 3:  Global  Responsibility 

Scenario  2:  National  Enterprise 

Scenario 4:  Local  Stewardship 

_ . .. 

. 

.... 

_. 

.

.

.. 

. 

. 

. 

I 

. 

For each, we were able to adapt the DTI scenarios, which  had been widely 

researched, to  include criteria for the following  'environments': 
•  Scenario  drivers; 
•  Economy  and sectoral  trends; 
•  Transport; 
•  Environment  and  sustainability; 
•  Energy; 
•  Employment; 
•  Education  and training. 

We  conducted  a  survey  of  stakeholders  in  the  sector  and  made  use  of 
other  survey  material  that  was  already  available  from  different  sources,  in 
order to  establish  which  trends  experts  considered  likely  or  unlikely  to  occur 
in the three  particular  industries, and which  developments  experts  disagreed 
about  the  likelihood  of.  We  combined  the  results  of  this  analysis  with  the 
broad  scenarios  for  transport,  and  produced  quantified  statements  under  a 
number  of  headings  for  each of the  specific  industries  we were  looking  at. 

From these  quantified  scenarios  we  produced  scenario  statements  under 
each of the four  meta-scenarios  for transport  outlined  above, for  each  of the 
following  industries:  the  rail  industry,  road  haulage  and  the  motor  industry 
(sales and service). 

These  scenarios  are  to  be  tested  out  a  little  further  with  experts  and 
stakeholders  in  Phase  2 and  adjusted, and  used to  stimulate  an  exploration 
of the skills  and  qualifications  needs  that  planners  should take  into  account 
when  planning qualifications  for the future. 

Phase  2,  which  is  now  beginning,  is  intended  to  establish  the  extent  to 
which current qualifications  contribute to meeting the skills needs  identified in 

110 

Early identification ol skill needs in Europe 

for  2012  work  and  related  analysis,  and 

the  scenarios 
to  make 
recommendations  on the  requirements  for  qualifications  likely  to  be  needed 
in  a decade's  time. The  members  of  the  core team  for  Phase  2  have  been 
chosen to achieve a careful  balance of expertise. 
•  An  expert  in  identifying  occupational  profiles,  skills  standards  and 

qualifications  needs  across different  vocational sectors; 

•  A labour  market  economist with wide experience  in the transport  sector; 
•  A consultant who  has been developing the scenarios  methodology. 

A steering  group  and  a sectoral  reference  group  are  being  established  in 
order to ensure the close involvement  of government  agencies and strategic 
players from the sectoral oganisations concerned. 

5.  The  next  steps 

Phase 2  is just  beginning. The  main stages  in this  phase  are  shown  on the 
table that follows. 

Stage  1 
Identification 
and analysis 

Map all existing  qualifications 
for the sector concerned 

Desk research using 
QCA etc databases 

Test the transport scenarios for plausibility and write 
in implications for skills needs 

Expert interviews 
and meetings 

Apply forecasting techniques to sectoral data 
and to the scenarios 

Team/expert input 

Develop 'framework  of usefulness' to link existing 
standards with future needs 

Stage 2 
Further analysis 

Apply the framework of usefulness 
to all existing  qualifications 

Explore how experts consider skills needs 
are best met In different scenarios 

Identify with organisations  how scenario thinking 
can help identify skills and qualifications strategies 

Stage 3 
Conclusions and 
recommendations 

Report on the appropriateness  of current  qualifications 
to anticipated future  needs for the Industries concerned 

Develop recommendations about future  qualifications 
needs and content 

Make recommendations about the usefulness 
and problems associated with the scenarios approach 
when used with other tools 

Team 

Team 

Expert interviews 
and meetings 

Interviews, meetings. 
Working with stake 
holders and organisa 
tions in the field 

Team, working with 
project and steering 
groups 

Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in the  transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdorn: has the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

111 

6.  Conclusion:  How  we're  using  scenarios  to  help 

build  the  strategic  conversation 

The  hypothesis  is  that  the  use  of  the  scenarios  methodology  can  help 
planners and stakeholders  to  improve  on their analysis and understanding of 
future  skills  and qualifications  needs  in the sector. This  should  help  sectoral 
organisations  and the regulatory  body in planning for change in qualifications. 
We  are  developing  the  scenarios  methodology  as  an  additional  tool  for 
identifying  future  needs  and developing  strategies  -  not as  an  alternative  to 
more  traditional  techniques.  We  are  exploring  whether  and  how  key 
stakeholders  could  be  encouraged  to  adopt  scenario  techniques  as  part  of 
their  normal  planning  processes. 

Bibliography 

Coles,  M.  Creating  a  language  for  strategic  conversation.  London:  QCA, 

2002. 

Coles,  M.;  Leney,  T.  QCA  Scenarios 

for  the  school  curriculum  and 

assessment  in 2011 -  Report.  London: QCA, 2002. 

Department  of the  Environment, Transport  and the  Regions.  Transport 2010: 

The  10 year  plan.  London: DETR, 2000. 

Department  of  the  Environment,  Transport  and  the  Regions.  Transport 

trends. 2001  edition.  London: DETR, 2001. 

Descy, P.; Tessaring  M.  Training and learning  for competence.  Second  report 
on  vocational  training  research  in  Europe.  Luxembourg: Office  for  Official 
Publications  of the  European  Communities, 2001. 

Green, L.; Hartley, P. Final report on a pilot study to explore the methods  used 
to identify  the content  of national  occupational  standards  and  vocationally 
related qualifications.  Chesterfield, UK: LMG Associates, 2000. 

1ER. Projections  of occupations  and qualifications  2000/2001.  London: DfES, 

University  of Warwick  and  Cambridge  Econometrics, 2001. 

Leney, T;  Coles, M.  Scenarios  and strategies  for training  in  the UK. London: 

QCA and  Institute  of  Education, University  of  London, 2001. 

Mackinnon, I.; Cooper, C. An  assessment  of skill needs  in transport.  London: 

DfEE, 2001. 

MITC.  Motor  industry  workforce  development  plan  2001.  London:  MITC, 

2001. 

National  Skills  Task  Force.  Skills  for  all:  Research  report  from  the  National 

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Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

RHDTC.  Workforce development plan  2001-2004:  Making  the case for  the 
road haulage & distribution sector. Milton Keynes, UK:  RHDTC, 2001. 
RITC.  Workforce development plan  for the UK rail industry.  London: RITC, 

2001. 

Strategic  Rail Authority. Progress report: Delivering the framework for skills in 

the rail industry. London: Strategic  Rail Authority  and DfES,  2001. 

QCA  Research,  2002.  Five  scenarios  for schooling  in  England  in 2011. 

London: QCA 2002. 

Van Wieringen  F.; Sellin, Β.; Schmidt, G. Uncertainties  in education: Handle 
with  care -  scenarios  and strategies for vocational education  and training 
in  Europe.  Amsterdam:  Max  Goote  Kenniscentrum,  University  of 
Amsterdam, 2001. 

ANNEX  1 
Scenarios  for transport  2012:  Meta  scenarios (*) 

Scenario  1: W o r ld  m a r k e ts 
People aspire to personal  independence,  material wealth and mobility to the 
exclusion  of wider  social  goals.  Integrated  global  markets  are thought to  be 
the best way to achieve these goals.  Internationally  co-ordinated  policy  sets 
framework  conditions  for the efficient  functioning  of  markets.  Services are 
privatised  wherever  possible  and society  and the economy  operate  on  the 
principle of minimal government.  Increased mobility of people and goods has 
created the conditions where  high levels of investment  in renewed  transport 
infrastructures  are possible due to the increase in the volume of road, air and 
rail traffic. 

Scenario 2: National  enterprise 
People  aspire  to  high  levels  of wealth  and welfare,  but balanced  by more 
equally distributed opportunities and a sound environment. Communities with 
shared  values  are stronger.  Most  believe  these  values  are best  achieved 
through  active  UK public  policy,  with  a degree  of international  cooperation. 
Tensions  exist  between  economic  and social  objectives.  Control of markets 
and  people  is  achieved  through  a  mixture  of  regulatory  and  norm-based 
mechanisms. 
In  transport  policy  the  'low  investment  versus  high 
environmental  protection' conundrum  has proved difficult to resolve. 

(*)  draft  version. 

Identifying  future qualification  needs  in the transport  sector  In 
the  United  Kingdom: has the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

113 

Scenario  3:  G l o b al  r e s p o n s i b i l i ty 
People  now  aspire  to  high  levels  of  welfare  within  communities  with  shared 
values,  more  equally  distributed  opportunities  and  a  sound  environment. 
People  believe that these  objectives  are best  achieved through active  public 
policy  and  international  cooperation  at  European  and  global  level.  Social 
objectives  are met through  predominantly  public  provision, increasingly  at an 
international  level. Government  and  international  authorities  such  as the  EU 
ensure  that  control  of  markets  and  people  is  achieved  through  a  mixture  of 
regulatory  and  norm-based  mechanisms.  Environmental  concerns  are  high 
on  the  agenda,  alongside  a  determination  to  establish  an  eco-friendly, 
integrated transport system. 

Scenario  4:  Local  s t e w a r d s h ip 
People  have  begun  to  aspire  to  sustainable  levels  of  welfare  and  income  in 
networked  communities.  Markets  are  subject  to  social  regulation  to  ensure 
more equally  distributed  opportunities  and  a  high  quality  local  environment. 
Public  policy  aims  to  promote  small-scale  and  regional  economic  activities, 
and acts to constrain  large-scale  markets  and technologies.  In some  parts of 
the UK,  local  communities  are strengthened  to  ensure  people's  involvement 
in governance  in a complex  world: Wales  is steering strongly  in this direction. 
The development  of the transport  system  has slowed down, while  innovation 
now  concentrates  on  using  new  technologies  and  ingenuity  to  provide  low 
cost and environmentally  friendly  outcomes. 

114 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

ANNEX  2 
Scenarios  for  transport  2012:  Criteria  and  matrix 

CRITERION 

MEASUREMENT 

Γ 

CRITERION 

^ r 

MEASUREMENT 

^ 

1.  Sectoral  economic  and market  developments 

4.  Management  of lhe  environment 

Growth  in  UK  economy 

Average  %  annual 

growth  in GDP 

Who  is winning 

the argument? 

Agencies  and 

outcomes 

Transport market trends 

Volume 

Index: Year  2000  = 100 

Energy  sources  for 

Traditional  and 

transport  industries 

innovative  sources 

Market  share:  goods 

%  share 

5.  The  labour market for the  industry 

Market  share:  people 

%  share 

The size of  the  labour 

Index:  Year 2000  = 100 

Productivity  in the 

Comment  on  overall 

force  in the  industry 

industry 

trend 

Motor  vehicle  licences 

Number 

Innovation in the industry 

The skills  equilibrium: 

High/patchily  high/ 

supply 

medium/low  continuum 

Specify 

Technological  change 

Scale  1-5:  opportunities 

Demand  for  skills 

Identify  professional, 

grasped  to  change 

inhibited 

technical  and  low  skills 

demand  levels 

An  integrated  transport 

Scale  1-5:  Fast to  no 

Flows  of  people 

How  do  people  come 

system? 

Investment 

development 

Index: Year  2000  =  100 

into the  industry, 

progress  and  move  on? 

2.  Organisations In the  industry 

6.  Education and training 

Networks 

Process  management 

Comment 

Outsourcing 

Scale  1-5:  high to  low 

Qualifications  of 

Comment  on 

potential  entrants 

similarities/differences 

cf.  2000 

levels 

Lifelong  learning 

Characterise  UK 

approach 

Attitude  to  skills  acqui­

Identify  the  dominant 

sition  in the  industry 

attitude  of  employers 

J 

Learning  organisations? 

Extent  and  emphasis 

Flexible  or  inflexible 

Scale  1-5:  Flexible 

workforce? 

to  inflexible 

Comment 

3.  Government  and governance  of the  industry 

Government  values 

Characterise 

and  priorities 

Light  touch /  heavy 

touch  regulation 

Scale  1-5: 

light  to  heavy 

UK and  EU frameworks 

Who  leads;  character 

of  frameworks 

Impact  of  sectoral 

Comment 

organisations 

Identifying  future qualification  needs  in the transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdom:  has  the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

115 

ANNEX  3 
Example:  Scenarios  for  Transport  2012: 
Motor  Industry  n 

Scenario  1 for  2012 
•  With  GDP  averaging  an  increase  of  3.5%  per  year,  this  is  a  high  growth 
economy.  The  volume  of  traffic  on  the  roads  has  increased  steadily  and 
shows no sign of slowing down. Twenty six million cars are now registered, 
an increase of three  million over a ten year  period. New car sales are 30% 
higher in 2012 than in 2001. Comparable  increases have taken place in the 
sales of  lorries, light vans  etc. 

•  Government  favours  improved  and  commercially  viable  motorway  and 
trunk  road  systems,  and  the  expansion  of  towns  to  provide  new  housing 
has  led  to  thousands  of  new  miles  of  road  being  laid.  Driving  can  be  a 
frustrating experience for road users, but motorists  show no sign of wanting 
to leave their  cars  at home, let alone  convert to two  wheels. 

•  For  the  motor  industry,  however,  the  regulatory  framework 

•  Government  regulates  car  use with a light touch. Congestion  charging  has 
only  been  imposed  in  seven  major  cities.  Levels  of  congestion  and 
pollution remain  high, and in the main the government  relies  on road users 
to use smart  in-car technology,  rather than  impose  charges  or  limitations. 
is  more 
restrictive,  mainly  to  control  safety  and  emission  levels.  International 
conventions  have  been  agreed  to  ensure  that  all  new  vehicles  are  more 
economical  and  environmentally  friendly  to  run. Safety  factors  are  subject 
to  strict  regulations,  and  customers  have  litigated  successfully  against 
garages that failed to spot  repairs that  needed doing and could  be a safely 
risk. Automotive  technology  is changing  rapidly. 

•  Among  people  who  live  in  crowded  towns,  state  of  the  art  micro  vehicles 
have  long  been fashionable,  but the volume  of  road traffic  has  meant  that 
cycling, walking, etc never achieved a critical  mass that would encroach on 
volumes of  car  use. 

•  Sales  networks  have  changed.  Manufacturers  no  longer  dominate  either 
(not 
sales  or  servicing.  After  a  major  shakeout  UK  companies 
manufacturers)  dominate  the  new  vehicles  business.  Showrooms  mostly 
sell used cars. E-commerce  carries  more than 50% of sales. The  numbers 
of staff  involved  in selling  cars  and other  vehicles  has  remained  much  the 

(')  draft  version. 

116 

Early  identification of  skill needs in  Europe 

same for a decade. However, the operations that staff are involved in have 
changed. The  market  has developed  rapidly  in other  ways, too.  European 
trading  standards  have  opened  up the  market  internationally,  and  one in 
three cars sold or bought in the UK market has to be transported to/from a 
customer  or sales  business elsewhere  in the EU. 

•  The  business  of  maintaining  cars  has  also changed. The  next  generation 
of  'Quick  Fit fitters' carries  out  a wider  range  of operations,  most of which 
involve  responding  to diagnostics  carried  out  on a computer.  In the  latest 
models,  in  car  technology  does  the  diagnosis.  The  culture  of  repairing 
bodywork and mechanical parts is almost a thing of the past. Nevertheless, 
a clear  difference  exists  between the quick fit culture and  more traditional 
workshops  that  carry  out  a wide  range  of  repairs  and  maintenance  on a 
wide  range  of  vehicles.  Both  kinds  of  operation  are  subject  to  stringent 
quality  control  checks  for  which  workshops  must  be  badged.  Mechanics 
are  required  to  have  appropriate  qualifications  and  to  attend  refresher 
training. The culture  of diagnosis  and replacement  is advanced. Mechanic 
hours spent  per vehicle  in servicing  operations  has  reduced  by  15% since 
2002.  Even  so,  customers  expect  repairers  to  anticipate  faults  and  take 
preventative  action. Mechanics  need a clear  understanding  of  how to use 
a  computer  to  identify  and  rectify  faults.  Otherwise,  the  skills  demanded 
have not changed greatly. Turnover of staff  is relatively  high. 

•  Sales  staff  now  need  a  clear  understanding  of  safety  and  environmental 
requirements  as  customers  become  more  discerning  and  car 
manufacturers  seek  an  environmentally  friendly  and  safety  conscious 
image. The  internationalisation  of the sales  business  requires  people with 
a quite advanced  level of general education, and knowledge  of  languages 
helps materially. Customer care receives more emphasis on both the sales 
and servicing  side of the industry. 

•  Government  adopts  a  decentralised  approach  to  lifelong  learning  and 
training  initiatives  are  left  largely to companies  It  is difficult  for  colleges to 
provide  trainees  with  experience  on  the  kinds  of  technology  that  are 
developing,  because  of  the  costs  involved.  Most  continuing  training  is of 
short duration, and short-termism  is still the order of the day. 

Identifying future qualification needs in the transport sector in 
the United Kingdom: has the scenarios methodology a role? 

117 

Scenario 2 for 2012 
• With GDP averaging an increase of 2% per year, the economy shows 

moderate growth. This is reflected in the index of new car sales - up 25% 
on the rates of a decade earlier - and the number of cars licensed, now 25 
million. 

• Individualistic social values continued to dominate in the UK, but people 
also look for a better quality of life in their communities. Government is 
expected to give a strong lead. The aspirations to high levels of earnings 
and consumption have meant that people continue to rely heavily on their 
cars as the key means of transport. People also look to government for 
better environmental conditions and less congested cities. In practice, 
market values have tended to carry greater weight than environmental 
issues, and management of the environment has remained difficult in the 
densely populated UK. 

• Wherever possible, the government has supported the UK motor sector by 
making it difficult for companies in other EU countries to establish direct 
sales arrangements in the UK market, though e-commerce etc have 
inevitably opened up the market somewhat. Worldwide car manufacturers 
still franchise sales operations to UK enterprises in the traditional way, 
though their dominance of the sales operations has weakened somewhat. 

■ Incremental changes have taken place in the ways that the car sales 

business operates. 60% or so of cars are still sold by businesses with a 
forecourt. This has meant that sales people and managers in the sector 
have had to develop strong ICT skills and the ability to interest customers 
from a distance. By 2012, the size of the workforce in sales had decreased 
by 5% compared to levels in 2002. The changes in sales networks and 
customer liaison meant that 40% of the people involved in sales no longer 
worked primarily on the forecourt. 

• In the repair business, garages and workshops have continued with the 

same mixture of replacement and repair of parts as prevailed earlier in the 
decade. 'Quick fit' arrangements had secured a significant part of the 
market by 2003, but by and large people still prefer to go to traditional 
outlets for a variety of repairs needing a mechanic's diagnostic skills and 
experience. A large number of computer led safety checks form a statutory 
part of each regular service. In other respects, the skills required of 
mechanics did not change greatly, compared with the skills requirements 
at the turn of the century. The size of the workforce needed increased by 
some five per cent over this time. 

• In spite of the developing demands of the business, the natural tendency 

in the sector was for firms to develop slowly. Traditional ways had a strong 

118 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

hold and, in any case, the  large  number of small businesses  in both sales 
and  servicing  found  it  difficult  to  make  rapid  strides  to  become  'learning 
organisations'. 
Skills  required  on  entry  to  both  sales  and  maintenance  changed  little, 
except that greater  skills with  ICT were  a requirement. Turnover  remained 
high in parts of the business. Customer  care  has remained an issue 
With more young people leaving the school systems qualified at levels two 
and three  an element  of qualifications  drift  has  been  evident  in the  motor 
trade, as in other service industries. Seeking reliable employees who have 
the  ability  to  learn the  trade  and  develop  customer  skills, employers  now 
tend to think that young people with a general or vocational diploma at level 
3 would  make the best  long-term  investment. 
The government  has led the introduction of a vocationally  driven system of 
lifelong  learning. The  quality  of  on-the-job  learning  and of  outside  training 
providers  varies  greatly.  Over  the  decade,  a  variety  of  apprenticeship 
models were tried out; in practice, most  new entrants to the servicing side 
of  the  business  are  trained  at  colleges,  with  'alternance'  training  in  the 
workplace.  The  training  outlook  of  the  SMEs  in  the  sector  tends  to 
concentrate  on  immediate,  short-term  needs,  while  the  run  of  small  and 
one-person  businesses  often treat training as a low priority. 

Scenario 3 for 2012 
•  Economic growth has been quite strong over the period, averaging a 2.5% 
increase  in GDP per annum  over the ten-year  period. The  UK took  a firm 
decision to join the  Euro and became a 'mainstream' EU country  by 2005. 
The  decision  was  taken  to  adopt  gradually  the  European  social  model, 
which  in turn  had a strong  impact  on the  motor  industry. 

•  The  total  annual  volume  of  passengers  and  goods  carried  reflected  the 
growth in living standards  and increased by 35% over the decade. People 
still  aspire  to  high  levels  of  welfare,  but  within  communities  with  shared 
values  and  a  safe,  healthy,  pleasant  environment.  Acquisitiveness  has 
been tempered  by a belief  in the need for a sound quality  of  life and more 
equally distributed opportunities and rewards. Social policies are further up 
the  agenda,  and environmental  concerns  are  high on  people's  public  and 
private  priorities.  There  is  a  determination  to  develop  an  eco-friendly, 
integrated transport system. 

•  Government  has consistently prioritised the development  of rail rather than 
road transport. The social partners, government  and the EU legislators are 
the  main  drivers  promoting  change  across  the  European  transport 

Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in the  transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdom: has the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

119 

industries.  The  instruments  are  a  mixture  of  regulatory  and  norm-based 
mechanisms  with  an  emphasis  on  innovative  and  problem-solving 
into.  Sectoral 
the  different  policy  groups  can  buy 
strategies  that 
organisations  regrouped  in  the  transport  industries  when  change  began 
and  are  now  key  partners  in  both  the  change  and  training  agendas. 
Partnership between different  stakeholders  has become  routine. 

•  A strong shift has taken place in the market shares of the different  transport 
industries. The key factor  is the reduction in market share of road transport 
for  both  freight  and  people.  Thus,  for  example,  the  dominance  of  the 
motorcar  began  to  wane  for  the  first  time  in  50  years. Twenty  four  million 
vehicles were  on the road in 2012, an increase of only  one million over the 
figure  for  2000.  Nevertheless,  levels  of  new  car  sales  were  high  (25% 
higher than in 2000)  as people went for economic, environmentally  friendly 
vehicles. The  market  share  of  road  haulage fell from  65% in 2000 to  57% 
in 2012. This still  marks  an  increase  in the volume  of  goods carried. 

•  Environmental  management  and  congestion  control  policies  have  created 
a regulatory  framework  that  penalises  individuals,  firms  and  garages  that 
breach  environmental  and  safety  standards.  Smart  technology  has  been 
introduced  into  new  cars  and  regional  network  control  centres.  Cities  are 
more or  less  no-go areas for  HGVs, and  light van systems  (some  of  which 
have  pioneered  new  forms  of  electronic  power)  have  proved  to  be  a 
successful  innovation. 

•  Considerable  productivity  gains  have  been  made  through  efficiency, 
technological  advance  and  some  new  ways  of  organising.  For  example, 
servicing a vehicle takes on average 80% of the time  it  had taken in 2002. 
The  industry  has  an  improving  skills  profile,  and  this  fits  well  with  a 
regulatory  framework  in  which  licence  to  practice  requirements  have 
become  more  common  and  more  demanding.  Both  salespeople  and 
mechanics  must  follow  programmes  of  initial  and  continuing  training,  and 
are  expected  to  meet  high  standards  in  technical,  interpersonal  and  IT 
skills. Skills  recognition  as well  as qualifications  are  built in. 

•  The rapid development  of mechanical  and in-car technology  has created  a 
need  for  mechanics  or  teams  skilled  across  a  range  of  mechanical, 
electrical and computerised technologies.  Being a mechanic  is no longer  a 
default  career  for  young  people  who  left  school  or  initial  training  with  few 
qualifications.  The  national  debate  questioned  whether  apprenticeship 
should  start  at  16  or  at  18  after  a  full  general  education  has  been 
completed; the decision  was for the  latter  to  be introduced  gradually. 

•  A partnership approach to lifelong learning has developed -  employers and 
employees  have both rights and obligations.  Initial training is done  through 

120 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

school-based  alternance  systems  or  work-based  apprenticeships  and 
continuing  training  is  a  requirement  for  continuing  to  practice.  Sectoral 
organisations  have  a  strong  influence.  Although  training  systems  have 
been  developed  in consultation  and  many  firms  welcome  the  moves to a 
high  skills  profile, some  smaller  firms  feel  'left  out  in the  cold'  by the new 
partnership and training  arrangements. 

Scenario 4 for 2012 
•  Economic  growth  has  been  slow  at  an  average  of  1.25%  of  GDP  per 
annum.  This  is  partly  a  result  of  deliberate  policy,  when  the  priorities of 
government  and  the  values  of  most  people  in  the  community  changed. 
People  started to turn their back on the  'massification' that  had developed 
in  the  20th  century.  They  were  seeking  sustainable  levels  of  welfare  and 
income  in  local,  networked  communities.  Government  and  regional 
authorities subjected  markets to strong forms of social  regulation. The aim 
was to provide  more equally  distributed opportunities  in local communities 
and a high quality environment.  In parts of the UK the large-scale economy 
was  constrained  as  local  community  governance  was  strengthened  and 
the  whole  focus  of  both  business  and  social  life  were  regionalised,  with 
Scotland and Wales drawing apart. There were economic costs to this, but 
people felt that there were  personal and social benefits. 

•  Strong  emphasis  was  placed  on  small-scale  innovations  using  new 
technology to meet local needs. Ingenuity was seen as the key to providing 
low cost and environmentally  friendly  outcomes. 

•  Against  the background  of these  economic  and social  drivers, the volume 
of goods and passengers moved on all forms of transport increased by only 
5% over  the decade.  Urban tramways, cycle tracks  and  even  attempts to 
regenerate  marine/water  transport  began  to find their  place  alongside the 
road,  rail  and  air  networks.  Road  marginally  increased  its  share  of  the 
haulage  business  (from  65% in 2000 to 66% in 2012), but cars  lost  out a 
little (3% market share) to other forms of  road and urban transport. 

•  The  scrap  and  replace  mentality  of  earlier  years  in  the  vehicle  service 
industry  was superseded  by a preference  for vehicle  parts  with a long life 
and  for  repairs  wherever  viable.  This  meant  both  that  car  manufacturers 
were  expected  to  produce  durable  components  that  could  be  dismantled 
and  fixed,  and  that  mechanics  needed  advanced  skills.  Repairing  cars 
took,  on  average,  only  10% less time  in 2012 than  had  been the  case in 
technologies  and 
2000. 
environmentally  friendly  modes  of  transport  meant  that  garages  were 

fuels,  alternative 

renewable 

Interest 

in 

Identifying  future  qualification  needs  in the  transport  sector  in 
the  United  Kingdom: has the scenarios  methodology  a  role? 

121 

handling  a  wide  range  of  operations  and  technologies.  Mechanics  were 
seen  as  skilled  craftspeople  who  needed  a  command  of  a  range  of 
technical and  IT skills.  Entrants  needed  prior  qualifications  at  17 or  18. 
•  Cars sales had become a different  kind of operation. Now only  15% of cars 
were sold through conventional  showrooms  as customers  made full use of 
the  opportunities  provided  by  e-commercial  outlets.  In fact,  the  volume  of 
sales  of  new  vehicles  was  not  as  low  as  might  be  expected:  sales  were 
15%  higher  in  2012  than  in  2000.  A  part  of  this  quite  buoyant  market 
comprised innovative vehicle engineering powered by non-pollutant  energy 
forms.  These  were  mainly  very  small  vehicles  that  were  exempt  from 
pollution  and  congestion  charges.  New  forms  of  small,  versatile,  hi-tec 
delivery  vans were also  a growth  market. 

•  Although  SMEs  constituted  a  large  proportion  of  the  businesses,  many 
aspired to be  learning  organisations  in which the  skills  and  contribution  of 
employees  were  valued.  The  extent  varied  from  region  to  region.  In  the 
most innovative  areas, some novel networking arrangements  between very 
different  kinds  of  company  in  the  transport  and  related  sectors  produced 
successful  and  stable  business  outcomes. 

•  Lifelong  learning  partnerships  were  defined  at the  local  and  regional  level 
and  cut  across  most  aspects  of  the  community.  They  provided  socially 
inclusive  education  and  training  services,  which  employers  valued  as  a 
way of ensuring that appropriately  educated young  people would  enter  the 
labour market. Colleges  and universities  had a clear  local and regional  role 
in high skills development. Thus, training, research and innovation could be 
linked  through  a  permanent  series  of  networks.  Local  skills  needs  were 
carefully  mapped  and  pathways  were  well  signposted.  However,  national 
standards were  more difficult  to  identify  and  meet 

Addressing the  ICT skills  shortage 
in  Europe 

Martin Curley, Intel Corporation, Leixlip, Co Kildare, Ireland 

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are pivotal tools for advancing 
EU prosperity. In this context the emergence of the knowledge economy is driving 
a structural  change in skills requirements toward  ICTs. This paper  discusses how 
the Careerspace consortium is helping to tackle the ICT skills shortage in Europe. 
The  Careerspace  Consortium  is  led  by  IBM, Intel,  Nokia,  BT, Philips. Siemens, 
Telefonica, Cisco, Thaïes, Nortel, EICTA and the European Commission. 

i. 

Introduction 

We  live  in an  uncertain  age, with  the  shape  of  society  changing  from  being 
resource  based  to  being  more  knowledge  based.  The  well  known 
management  guru  Peter  Drucker  says  'In  today's  economy,  the  most 
important resource is no longer labour, capital or land; it is knowledge'. Whilst 
this  is  a  statement  over  which  one  could  have  much  discussion  and 
argument,  it  is  clear  that  the  creation  and  sharing  of  knowledge  is  a  key 
modulator  in the progression  of an economy  and indeed a society. 

The information  revolution  is being driven by Moore's  Law, which predicts 
a  doubling  of  processing  capacity  every  eighteen  months  with  an 
accompanying  cost  reduction.  This  means  that  more  and  more  computing 
power  in  PC's  is  becoming  available  at  lower  cost.  Information  and 
communication  technologies,  used  by small  minorities just  a few  years ago, 
are now offering easily accessible on-line facilities to an incredible  number of 
people. 

Addressing the ICT skills shortage in Europe 

123 

2. 

The  IDC  (1)  Summit  on Technology,  Innovation  and  Skills  Training  in  March 
2000  was  a catalyst  for  popularising  the  existence  of  a  European  ICT  skills 
gap. On  IDC broad skills definition, the demand for  IT workers was  expected 
to grow to over  13 million in 2003 while the supply was projected to  remain a 
little  above  11 million. Whilst  the  recent  high-tech  downturn  lowered  the  gap 
somewhat,  the  demand  for  skills  centred  around  the  Internet  working 
environment  continues  to  grow  (EITO  estimated  the  ICT  market  grew  by 
5.1%  in 2001  amounting  to  a value  of 643  billion  Euro). The  main drivers for 
this  demand  are 
technology, 
telecommunications  devices  and infrastructure  as well as the  increasing  use 
of  Internet  technology  as  a  foundation  for  business  processes.  IDC  also 
predicted  that  the  current  skills  shortage  in  Western  Europe  would  become 
more acute  unless  urgent  action  is taken. 
The  main areas  of  the shortage  are: 

importance  of 

the  growing 

Internet 

•  Analysts  and  programmers 
•  Engineers 
•  Software  engineers 
•  Managers 
•  Computer  operators 
•  Consultants 

Also  in 2000,  Datamonitor  estimated that Western  Europe would  lose  100 
billion  Euro  in  total  wage  revenue  over  the  next  three  years  because  of 
Europe's inability to fill vacancies  in the ICT sector. With this context the  need 
for the Careerspace  consortium  came into being and a concerted  efforts  was 
made to  put  in place  long-term  measures  to close the gap. 

3. 

It's  clear  that  the  depth  and  breadth  of  ICT  skills  penetration  across  the 
European  Union will be an  important  factor  in future  success. This  has  been 
recognised  and  a  unique  collaboration  between  the  European  Commission 
and private industry, in the shape of the Careerspace Consortium was formed 
a number  of  years  ago  to  improve  the  quality  of  ICT skills  and  drive  further 
penetration  of  ICT skills. The  Lisbon  European  Council  of  23  and  24  March 
2000  set the  European  Union  a  major  strategic  goal  for  the  next  decade  'to 

(')  International  Data  Corporation. 

124 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge based economy in the 
world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and 
greater social cohesion'. 

The Council recognised that there is a widening skills gap, especially in 
information technology where increasing numbers of jobs remain unfilled and 
at the same time acknowledged that 'every citizen must be equipped with the 
skills needed to live and work in this new information society'. 

To attain this strategic objective, the European Council called for Europe's 

education and training systems to be adapted both to the demands of the 
knowledge society and to the need for an improved level and quality of 
employment. The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) 
industry in Europe, which is acknowledged as the driving force of the new 
economy supported this call and is playing an active role in partnership with 
all stakeholders to achieve this strategic objective. The Careerspace 
Consortium is led by Intel, IBM, Nokia, BT, Philips, Siemens, Telefonica, 
Cisco, Thaïes, Nortel, and EICTA, the European Information and 
Communications Technology Industry Association. It is funded by these 
companies and the European Commission. 

The Careerspace consortium priorities are focussed on increasing 

studying opportunities in ICTs, encouraging and preparing young people to 
enter technical education and careers, improving mathematical and science 
education and technical skills training and increasing the participation of 
women in technical education. Other measures include rapid adoption of 
eLearning. 

A crucial first phase of the Careerspace program was to better describe the 

roles essential to achieving e­Europe and the wide range of skills and 
capabilities these involve. The Career Space core generic skills profiles were 
offered as a reference point for universities and students alike. The Career 
Space core profiles represent the most important areas where skills 
shortages are currently experienced and anticipated in the future. 

The next phase was to build on this and work with the education sector to 
devise curricula guidelines that would equip new ICT graduates for life in the 
information age. This curricula work has been actively supported by over 
twenty universities and technical institutions across Europe and CEN/ISSS ­
the European standardisation body for the information society, Eurel ­ the 
convention of national societies of electrical engineers of Europe and e­skills 
ΝΤΟ ­ the UK national training organisation for ICT. 

Working with these 20 universities across Europe, the Consortium has 

developed new Information and Communication Technologies curricula, 
matched to the needs of the 21st century. These new curricula will hopefully 

Addressing  the  ICT skills  shortage  in Europe 

125 

become  the  European  benchmark  and  are  providing  the  basis 
evolutionising  ICT education  across  Europe. 

for 

An  important  other  strand  of  the  Consortium's  work  is  to  attract  more 
people, especially  women  and  people with disabilities, to develop  ICT skills. 
A significant  marketing  effort,  centred  on  a website  (www.careerspace.com) 
is underway  to attract  more  people,  especially  women  into  the  ICT  industry. 
As Careerspace  moves  into  it's third  phase  there  is  increasing  emphasis  on 
vocational  ICT  training  and  generation  of  profiles  for  users  in  generic 
industries. 

4.  Supply/demand  working group  findings 

Because  the  ICT  industry  is  dynamic,  volatile  and  highly  influenced  by  the 
development  of  related technologies, there  is a constant  need to monitor  the 
ICT skills shortage and the supply of new graduates  into the  labour  market  in 
Europe.  To  this  end,  Careerspace  established  a  supply/demand  working 
group to  get  better  information  on supply/demand  trends. 

The  Supply  Demand  Working  Group  of  the  Skills  Consortium  focused  on 
looking at ways to  better  understand  the  skills  shortage  especially  when  it is 
related to the  most  relevant  ICT skills  profiles defined  in Careerspace  phase 
1.  In order  to  better  capture  the  ICT skills  shortage,  a  pilot  study,  based  on 
occupational  statistics  was  conducted  in  UK  by  IBM. The  ICT jobs  (defined 
according  to  the  13  Careerspace  skills  profiles)  were  matched  in  a  matrix 
against  the  official  classifications  of  occupational  statistics  and  thus,  the 
demand  for  ICT  skills  could  be  derived.  This  method  also  enabled  the 
utilisation  of  the  national  official  statistics  and  moreover,  the  comparison  to 
the  corresponding  OECD  occupational  statistics.  The  same  method  with 
country  specific  adjustments  was  used  in  estimating  the  demand  in  other 
European  countries.  With  this  method  the  consortium  found  a useful  match 
with the true  current  skills  shortage on the job  level. 

The  main findings  of the  Supply  Demand working  group were  as follows: 
•  In  2000  there  were  about  six  and  a  half  million  ICT  workers  in  Western 

Europe, accounting  for just  over  four  per  cent  of total  employment; 

•  Over  the  next  four  years  another  two  millions  will  be  added  to  the  ICT 
workforce which  by 2004 will account for  nearly five and a quarter  per cent 
of all jobs; 

•  In 2000 the  ICT supplier  industries  accounted for 28.8% of total jobs, 50% 
of  these  jobs  were  with  end-users,  and  the  remainder,  21.2%  were 
employed  in call centres; 

126 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

•  Analysts  and  programmers  were  the 

largest  occupational  group, 
comprising  27%  of  the  total  ICT  jobs  excluding  call  centres.  Growth  in 
demand is growing fastest for these skills together with software engineers. 
The group found that direct evidence on the skills gap was difficult to come 
by.  Perhaps  the  best  indicator  of  this  shortfall  was  that  salaries  in  the 
software  and services  industry were rising at nearly twice the rate of national 
average  earnings 

A  consequence  of  the  globalisation  and  uncertain  times  is  that  today's 
European  workforce  and  researchers  face  unprecedented  challenges  and 
competitive pressures. Researchers and Employees need to learn faster and 
colleagues  often  need  to  collaborate  cross-functionally,  across  offices  and 
borders  to  create  new  research,  products  and  achieve  operational 
excellence. 

Taking some poetic license with the physics definition of linear momentum, 
being the product  of 'mass  by velocity', one could argue that the  momentum 
of an economy is somehow related to the product of the size of the population 
and  the  learning  velocity  (where  learning  velocity  or  knowledge  velocity  is 
defined as the directional  speed with which knowledge  is flowing and people 
are learning). The wide scale adoption of  e-learning  across  Europe will be a 
key  tool  for  closing  the  ICT  skills  gap.  eLearning  will  provide  just  in  time 
learning  to  people's  PCs  whilst  enabling  mass  economies  of  scale  in 
education. 

Addressing  the  ICT skills shortage  in  Europe 

127 

onclusion 

ICT is a major force in the global economy. Societies have the choice of being 
proactive  or  reactive  in the face  of this  wave  of  change. The  2002  edition  of 
the  EITO  (European  Information  Technology  Observatory)  outlined  that  in 
2001  the  Internet  strongly  increased  its  penetration  in  Europe.  148  million 
web users, that  is 38% of the total  population,  had access to the web.  EITO 
expected an increase in the number of web users up to 63% of the  population 
in  2005.  Despite  the  economic  slowdown  e-business  activities  continue  to 
grow  and traditional  industries  are  increasingly  adopting  e-business  tools  to 
restructure,  reduce  costs  and  sustain  competitiveness.  With  this  context, 
Careerspace  phase  111  is  shifting  it's  focus  to  vocational  ICT  skills  and  end 
user  profiles.  Only  through  concerted  pan-European  effort  can  the  digital 
divide be transformed  into a digital  dividend for  Europe. 

References 

Hernaut,  K.  et  al.  New  ICT  curricula  for  the  21s'  century  -  designing 

tomorrow's  education.  Brussels, 2001. 

Lamborghini, B. European  Information  Technology Observatory  - EITO 2002. 

Brussels, 2002. 

Manninen,  A.  EICTA position  on  skills  shortage  in  European  ICT  industry. 

Helsinki, 2001. 

Niitamo, Veli-Pekka, Telford, Keith.  The level  and  growth  of  ICT skills  needs 
in Europe. A pilot  study  methodology  and  initial  results.  Helsinki,  2001. 

Straub,  Richard;  Bourke,  Thomas. 
documentation.  Paris, 2001-2002. 

Internal  Careerspace  memos  and 

New  skill  requirements 
in  logistics 

Kathrin Schnalzer,  Gerd Gidion, Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering 
(FhlAO), Stuttgart, Germany; Miriam Thum, infratest Social Research; 
Helmut Kuwan, Social Research and Consultancy,  Munich and Infratest Social 
Research, Munich,  Germany 

The ADeBar project  aims at making available at an early stage information  about 
changing  qualification  needs  in  the  workplace  and  in  enterprises.  It  combines 
qualitative and quantitative surveys with longitudinal and cross-section analyses. At 
the core of the early recognition  instrument  are case studies from  the  Fraunhofer 
Institute for Industrial Engineering. These studies analyse complete working tasks 
within their respective working systems and business processes. The sum of all the 
case studies gives a picture of general trends and theses, which are subjected  to a 
test  for  representativeness  conducted  in  each  case  by  Infratest  Social  Research 
together  with  Helmut  Kuwan  -  Social  Research  and  Consultancy  Munich.  The 
current  focus  of  the  project  is  the  fields  of  logistics,  facility  management, 
commercial office  jobs, and the media sector. 

The qualification-related  and in-house specialisations as well as the new sets of 
qualifications  in logistics, derived  from  qualitative case studies in businesses, can 
be summarised  in 'process controller', 'IT logistics specialist',  'transport organiser', 
and  'technical  delivery  specialist'.  Current  and  future  qualification  requirements 
were  assessed  in  a  survey  of  440  enterprises,  about  200 of  which  are  logistics 
enterprises: customer-focus will continue to be the major qualification  requirement 
for  skilled  logistics  employees.  With  regard  to  some  Internet  and  e-commerce 
qualifications,  a considerable  increase  in significance  is expected  within the next 
three years. 

New  skill requirements  in  logistics 

129 

i.  Basis  and  methods  of  the  ADeBar  project 

Along with  Infratest  Sozialforschung  and  in cooperation  with  Helmut  Kuwan, 
Social  Research  and  Consultancy,  the  Fraunhofer  Institute  for  Industrial 
Engineering  (FhlAO)  are  carrying  out  the  research  project 
'Permanent 
workplace-based  observation  of  skill  developments  with  a view  to  the  early 
recognition  of changes  in work and industry  - ADeBar', commissioned  by the 
Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research, the  results  of  which  are  to  be 
submitted  to  industry  and  training  policy  decision-makers  as  empirical 
information  for  the  adaptation  and  restructuring  of  initial  and  continuing 
vocational training. The project is focused on practice in the workplace as the 
starting  point  for  skill  developments  and  is  designed  to  provide  clear, 
concrete  and  empirically  weighted  information  on  the  development  of  real 
working tasks  and  related future skill requirements  which  can  be  recognised 
at the  level  of the work  process  itself. 

The  research  approach  consists  of  a  combination  of  qualitative  and 
Industrial 
quantitative  company  surveys.  The  Fraunhofer 
Engineering  is  responsible  for  the  qualitative  part  of  the  case  study  and  the 
generation  of  hypotheses. The  core  of the ADeBar  scientific  approach  is the 
implementation  of  specifically  prepared  two-day  intensive  company  case 
studies consisting  of: 
•  exploratory,  directed  observation 

interviews  with  approx.  seven 

Institute  for 

respondents  per  company; 

•  analysis of work tasks, work system  and business  processes  by  means of 
observation  and  standardised  interviews,  examination  of  the  working 
environment  and business  process-related  operations; 

•  analysis  of  documentation  of  specific  relevance  to the work  and  company 

in question. 
The case study  approach  not only offers  the researcher the  opportunity  of 
'full immersion'  in the  specific  situation  of the  company  in  question, but  also 
provides company  respondents with the opportunity to address the questions 
of  the  survey  from  the  perspective  of  their  own  specific  experience.  The 
results  of the case  studies are also  presented  to the company  partners. The 
survey  is also  expected to offer  company  partners  new findings  on  expected 
trends in their  specific  context. 

Starting  out  from  the  analysis  of  complete  working  activities  and  related 
work systems  and  business  processes,  development  trends  are  determined 
and  hypotheses  for  the  future  drawn  up.  Building  on  this,  representative 
interviews are conducted in selected companies. This quantitative  verification 
of the hypotheses  is the task of  Infratest  Sozialforschung  and Helmut  Kuwan 

130 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

(Social  Research and Consultancy,  Munich). The main fields of  investigation 
for  the  project  period  1999-2002  are  the  cross-sectoral  field  of  logistics, 
industry  involved in the field of facility  management,  new office activities and 
the value added structure  of  media design. 

A detailed  description  of the  basic  principles  and  methods  of the ADeBar 

project  can be found  in Gidion et al. (2000). (1) 

Kathrin Schnalzer, Gerd Gidion 

In the  first  part  of  the  survey  involving  the  case  studies,  company  practice 
reveals considerable changes  in job requirements  in the key research field of 
stock  inventory  and shipping  logistics.  New tasks  are  emerging  in the  wake 
of  extended  technical  options  (satellite  navigation,  GPS,  electronic 
just-in-time 
transmission)  and  market-led  requirements  (client-specific 
delivery,  chaotic  stockkeeping)  on  the  one  hand,  and  in  the  light  of  the 
logistical  maturity  and overlapping  of previously  irrelevant  areas  (automated 
shipping  systems,  automatically  controlled  transport  systems,  information 
and data logistics, global logistics), on the  other. 

So  far  however  these  changing  skill  requirements  have  only  been 
addressed  from  the  point  of  view  of  vocational  training  by  regulations  in 
courses  leading  to  academic  qualifications  delivered  by  institutions  ranging 
from  colleges  of  advanced  vocational  studies  and  specialised  colleges  of 
higher  education  to  universities.  Within the  German  dual system  of training, 
on  the  other  hand,  the  basic  premise  is  frequently  that  of  low  skill 
requirements  with  little  need for  measures  at the  level of  occupations  in the 
logistics  field.  However,  evaluation  of  the  ADeBar  project  case  studies 
indicates  extended  skill  requirements  for  non-academic  personnel  at  middle 
qualification level in logistic systems, an aspect which should be incorporated 
into existing initial and continuing training programmes with a view to optimal 
skilling. 

The  empirical  skill  requirements  identified  can  be  classified  into  skill 
bundles  which  are  to  a  certain  extent  based  on  requirements  in  existing 
training occupations  (see  Figure 1). 

(')  Gidion, G.;  Kuwan, H.; Schnalzer,  K.;  Waschbüsch,  E. Spurensuche  in der Arbeit  -  Ein  Verfahren 
In:  Qualifikationen  erkennen  -  Berufe 

zur  Erkundung  künftiger  Qualifikationserfordernisse. 
gestalten.  Vol. 2, 2000. 

New  skill  requirements  in logistics 

131 

Figure  1. Empirical skill  bundles  in  logistics 

Stock  manager 

Hybrid:  IT + warehousing 

J 

IT logistics  manager 

Transport-Organiser 

Technical  delivery 

Forwarding agent 

Driver 

In the  following,  two  examples  from  the  workplace  serve  to  demonstrate 

company-specific  solutions  and identified  skill bundles. 

Example  1 : The IT logistics  manager 
A  surveyed  automotive  company  showed  particularly  stringent 
requirements  in terms  of  quality  and  reliability  in the  shipping  of  automobile 
components, which  can only  be guaranteed  by  optimised  quality  assurance. 
The  materials  are  delivered  from  the  points  of  production  and  storage 
locations  and  scanned  into  the  materials  management  system  in  the 
incoming  goods  department.  Once  the  materials  are  consigned,  the 
containers  are  transferred  by  a  high-lift  truck  driver  into  the  outgoing  goods 
department.  Here  each  packing  station  is  fitted  with  a  computerised  image 
documentation  system, comprising figures  of over  3 000 different  automotive 
components, designed to guarantee  correct  packaging of the shipped  goods 
and  the  loading  of  the  transport  containers.  This  system  facilitates  the 
operational  tasks  of  the  personnel  in  identifying  and  distinguishing  the 
various automotive  components.  It also  means  more reliable recognition  and 
removal  of  defective  parts.  Quality  assurance  and  error  minimisation  are 
among  the  most  important  requirements  for  all  shipping  department 
personnel. The  ready-packed  parts  are  finally  conveyed  by  high-lift  truck  to 
the dispatch  centre,  scanned  out  of the  system, loaded  unto  containers  and 
shipped to the client by various  means of transport (truck, internal navigation, 
ocean liner,  aircraft). 

132 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

The  use  of  a  networked  materials  management  system  as  well  as 
databases and information systems calls for a hybrid of skills in the surveyed 
company.  These 
IT 
administration, installation, maintenance  and programming. 
The tasks of the  IT logistics  manager  comprise e.g.: 

inventory  management, 

include  knowledge  of 

•  Localisation  and appropriate  referral of systems  problems 
•  Installation,  configuration  and  update  of  computer  programmes  and 

systems 

•  Problem  solving for computer  systems  and printers 
•  Referral of  major systems  problems to systems  administration 
•  Design of input  masks for data  management  programmes 
•  Answering  questions from  colleagues 
•  The intermediary  function between  programmers  and other  personnel 
•  Training  personnel  in the  use of  materials  management  systems 
•  Monitoring the shipping  process  by checking consignment  lists 
•  Monitoring  of correct transmissions  (interface  transmissions) 
•  Retransmission  of  non-transmitted  data  (e.g.  data  unrecorded  by  the 

scanner) 

•  Forwarding cancellations  to  programmers. 

Skill  requirements  are  expected  to  rise,  especially  as  far  as  commercial 
knowledge  and  modern  office  technology  are  concerned.  Necessary 
characteristics  and abilities  are  logical thinking, coping with stress (induced, 
among  others,  by  changing 
in 
troubleshooting. Process control with planning and organisational activities is 
expected to gain momentum. 

requirements)  and  perseverance 

The tasks of the IT logistics manager call for particularly  high  requirements 
in terms of a combination of knowledge and skills from materials and inventory 
management,  on the one  hand, and computer  technology  and programming, 
on  the  other.  Given  the  use  of  increasingly  automated  and  networked 
inventory  and  materials  management  systems,  skills  in  a  whole  range  of 
different  working  systems  are  required  from  an  IT  logistics  manager.  The 
bundle of skills  required from the logistics  manager  is illustrated  in Figure 2. 

New  skill  requirements  in logistics 

133 

Figure 2.  Skill  bundle: IT logistics  manager 

Specialised requirements 

Installation, configuration  and update of 

computer  programmes  and  systems 

Problem solving  in the case of  computer 

systems and equipment,  e.g. printers 

Localising  of systems  problems 

and  referral to  fields 

Handling automated  ordering  systems 

Technical requirements 

Knowledge of  systems 

Materials  management  systems 

Programming  knowledge 

Social requirements 

Intermediary  function  between 

programmers  and other  personnel 

Organisational  requirements 

Thinking  in terms  of  processes, dispatch 

monitoring 

Virtual  worlds 

Example 2:  The process  controller 
In a AdeBar partner  company  in the  aeronautics  industry,  freight  build-up 
on palettes  is  a core  process  and  the  most  manpower-intensive  unit  within 
the  company.  The  build-up  process  has  numerous  interfaces  with  other 
functional  areas  in  the  logistics  centre.  Optimisation  of  paletting  is  decisive 
for  the  fulfilment  of  corporate  targets.  A  project  designed  to  improve  work 
processes was therefore  launched within  a project team comprising  different 
functional  levels.  The  goal  was  to  optimise  utilisation  of  resources  in  the 
freight build-up process which involves  surfaces, materials  and personnel. In 
the  planned  work  system,  the  foreman  is  replaced  by  a  process  controller 
whose  role  is  to  guarantee  information-controlled  coordination  of  freight 
build-up.  In contrast, the  freight  build-up  process  has  so far  operated  on the 
basis  of  consignment  notes  from  the  documentation  department.  The 
purpose  of  this  change  is  to  eliminate  the  previous  strict  division  of  labour 
between  different  areas  and  to  change  the  highly  physical/industrial 
orientation  of  the  foreman's  activities  to  a  more  planning  and  coordinating 
activity.  A  new  activity  profile  had  to  be  introduced  to  cover  these  hew 
requirements, the process  controller. The process  controller's  field of  activity 
comprises  the  tasks  of  the  previous  foreman,  part  of  the  tasks  of  the 
documentation  department  as  well  as  preparatory  activities.  He  plans  and 

134 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

controls the entire build-up  process. This process of change  is accompanied 
by a greater  degree of  IT support for the overall work  process. A back-office 
has  been  set  up,  comprising  staff  assuming  documentation  and  detailed 
research tasks, to compensate for the process controller's  increased tasks. 
The  example  of  this  company  illustrates  the  introduction  of  the  new  skill 
bundle of the process controller, building on existing activity  profiles, with the 
technical, social, organisational  and specialised requirements of personnel in 
logistics  occupations  illustrated  in Figure 3. 

Figure 3.  Skill bundle: process controller 

Technical  requirements 

Organisational  requirements 

Handling communication and 
information  systems 

Controlling  SAP materials  management 

systems 

Automatic  order systems 

Planning and organisation  of  processes, 

calculation 

Overall systems  orientation 

An insight  into processes, 

virtual worlds 

Social  requirements 

Personnel  management 

Specialised  requirements 

Goods and sales  management 

Shipping  management, 

merchandise  movements 

Merchandise control, accounting, 

cost  controlling 

Changing labour system and working tasks imply changing manpower skill 
requirements,  as  illustrated  by  the  empirical  skill  bundles  observed. These 
include  both  new  requirements,  e.g.  handling  materials  tracking  systems, 
new  combinations  of  requirements,  e.g.  the  combination  of  materials 
management  and  IT  skills,  and  the  integration  of  qualifications  from 
neighbouring activities within the labour system, e.g. the tasks of the process 
controller. 

New skill requirements in logistics 135 

3. 

activity field 'logistics' 
Miriam Thum, Helmut Kuwan 

In the second part of the project, Infratest Sozialforschung carried out face-to-
face representative interviews among company experts to determine 
quantitative results based on the trends observed by the FhlAO. The first wave 
of the survey examined the fields of activity logistics and facility management. 

Face-to-face interviews were conducted in a total of 440 randomly 

selected companies from the logistics and facility management sectors. The 
following report relates to the field of logistics in which 197 of the interviews 
were conducted. 

Figure 4. Survey investigation concept of ADeBar main study 

AiDeBarS Sample 

Random sample; including start-ups 

440 companies from the logistics and facility management sectors 

Preliminary screening 

Demarcation of the logistics sector 

Target group 

The most competent respondent in the company 

Change of respondent in the interview as appropriate 

Survey method and survey period 

Face-to-face interviews 

■ Autumn 2000 

Infratest Sozralforschung 

The basis for the selection of the random sample of the companies with 

the core activity of logistics was the 'workplace master sample' (AMS), 
developed by Infratest and unique of its kind to the Federal Republic. The 
AMS comprises 160 000 companies, records business start-ups on a 
continuous basis and is constantly updated. 

136 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

Since  there  is  no  specific  definition  of  the  logistics  sector  as  such, 
preliminary  screening  was  carried  out  in  those  areas  of  industry  in  which 
logistics  processes  constitute  an essential  business component.  Companies 
were  selected 
industries, 
commerce, transport and services, while sectors which seemed very unlikely 
to  have  logistics  as  a  core  business  were  ruled  out.  The  sample  was 
additionally classified into the following three size classes: 10 to 49, 50 to 99, 
100+ employees, whereby  large-scale  enterprises with a headcount  of  100+ 
were given an over-proportionate weighting. 

the  manufacturing  and  construction 

from 

In  a  preliminary  screening  process,  the  interviewer  ascertained  whether 
the  relevant  company's  core  business  involved  transport  or  organisation  of 
the transport  of  persons,  raw  materials  or  goods  or  organisation  of  the  sale 
of goods  or  raw  materials.  Companies  fulfilling  this  screening  criterion  were 
included  in the survey while the others were eliminated. 

The  persons  initially  allocated  to  the  interviewers  as  respondents  were 
personnel  managers,  and,  in  the  case  of  smaller  businesses,  managing 
directors  or  proprietors.  In those  cases  in  which  it  subsequently  transpired 
that these persons were  not in a position to adequately  assess the trends in 
the  selected  occupational  area,  an  alternative  respondent  was  chosen,  i.e. 
the  person  with the  deepest  insight  into the field  of  activity  of  logistics. This 
alternative  respondent  had  to  be  identified  by  the  interviewer  on  the  spot. 
However  in 97% of the interviews there was in fact no change of  respondent. 
The survey  was conducted from  12 September  to 25 November 2000. 

The central themes of the AdeBar  representative  survey were  as follows: 
•  Initial/continuing  training  and  informal  vocational  learning  in their  various 

forms 

•  Innovations  in the enterprise,  R&D 
•  The status of  early  recognition  in the company 
•  General skill trends 
•  Current and future skill  requirements 
•  Specific trends  in logistics  and facility  management. 

Logistics as a dynamic  industrial sector 

Logistics is a dynamic industrial sector. This was demonstrated by the answer 
to  question  as  to  whether  one  or  more  organisational  changes  had  taken 
place in the company  in the course of the last three years. One or more of the 
following  changes  had  occurred  in  almost  all  the  surveyed  enterprises. 
Measures to improve quality management/quality  assurance, applied by 76% 
of  the  companies, stood  in first  position, followed  by the  introduction  of  new 
procurement and sales channels. Most of the companies had carried out a re-

New skill requirements in logistics 

137 

distribution  of  tasks,  either  in the form  of  a  reorganisation  of  departments,  a 
downward  shift 
introduction  of 
in  responsibility  or  outsourcing.  The 
independent  teams  and  units  with  their  own  cost/profit  accounting  is  also  to 
be seen in conjunction with the downward shift in responsibility.  Responsibility 
for costs  and entrepreneurship  are  no longer  limited to the graduate  level  but 
play  an  increasingly  important  role  at  the  level  of  specialised  personnel. As 
many as one out of every ten firms  had introduced a call centre  in the  course 
of the  last  three  years. All  the  changes  had  been  more  frequently  applied  in 
companies  which  were  economically  sound.  And  changes  had  been  more 
frequently  carried  out in innovative than  in traditional  companies. 

Figure 5.  Organisational  changes  in  the  course  of  the  last  three  years 

(percentages) 

Improved quality  management 

New procurement and distribution channels 

Departmental reorganisation 

Downward shift in responsibility 

Outsourcing 

Indepented working teams 

Units with their own cost/profit accounting 

Environmental measures, e.g. environmental/eco-audits 

More in-house production/output 

Introduction of a call centre 

V 

Source:  Infratest - ADeBar main study. 

20 

40 

60 

80 

General  skill trends  in the field  of  logistics 

What are the general skill trends to be observed for specialised  personnel  in 
the  field  of  logistics?  The  experts  were  asked  to  evaluate  20  relatively 
general  statements  in the  context  of  the  company  survey  (2). The  statement 
describing  IT skills  as a basic  overall skill which  is becoming  part  and  parcel 
of general  knowledge  met  with  the greatest  degree  of  approval: 92% of  the 
experts from the field of  logistics  agreed with this  statement. 

(2)  Evaluated  on  a  scale  of  1 to  4 as follows:  1=  'Absolutely  true' to  4  = 'Not  at  all true'. 

138 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

A statement  referring  to  a  specific  facet  of  customer  orientation  stood  in 
third  position. The  trend  towards  intensive  mutual  influence  and  interaction 
between  the  commissioning  unit  and  the  client  in  innovations,  so-called 
customer  development,  was  regarded  as  a  requirement  for  specialised 
personnel  by  approx.  nine  out  of ten  experts.  79% of the  experts  moreover 
confirmed  the  trend  that  working  in  an  international  context  would  expand 
considerably. 

The  increasing  significance  of  IT  is  reflected  in  the  evaluation  of  the 
statement on the broad expansion of e-commerce  and e-business  in virtually 
all company functions. 77% of the experts confirm this trend (7lh position). 

Figure 6.  Statements  on general skill trends  in the field of  logistics -A-

Ranking of 20 statements 

ΑΙΡΘΒΟΪΛ 

Handling  ICTs is becoming a basic overall skill 

just  like  reading, writing  and arithmetic. 

J  J 

Customer-specific  products and services arise both from  customer 

requirements and new ideas for  improved solutions to the advantage 

of the client. This  leads to  intensive mutual  influence 

) 

between the commissioning  unit and clients  (customer  development). 

Working  in an international  context  is clearly expanding.  J  J 

and 
Starting out from office  and operational functions, e-Commerce and 

ions. 
e-business  are penetrating  into  nearly all the other company  functions 

The  experts  were  asked  to  evaluate  a  number  of  statements  on  the 
importance  of  specialised  vocational  knowledge  in  relation  to  other 
requirements. The statement that the division and organisation of labour is no 
longer  principally  oriented  towards  occupations  and  functions  but  rather 
towards  operations  and  processes  in  working  routine  met  with  the  most 
approval  (8th position).  In the  opinion  of  the  experts,  a  more  holistic  form of 
organisation and a less strict division of tasks are to be expected in the future 
(10th position). 

A further trend with which the majority of the experts agreed was electronic 
error documentation  on the basis of which errors can be precisely  identified. 

New skill requirements in logistics 

139 

This is a development which may be of wide-ranging significance for the  legal 
position of employees,  in particular  from  a long-term  perspective. 

The  only  statement  rejected  by  a  majority  of  respondents  concerns  the 
uncertainty  as  to  whether  there  is  a  virtual  system  or  a  real  colleague  is 
behind a DP interface.  It will be  interesting to  see to what extent this  opinion 
changes over the  coming  years. 

Figure 7  Statements  on  general  skill  trends  in the field  of  logistics -B-

Ranking of 20 statements 

A|peBoi*y 

The division and organisation  of  labour  is  no longer 

principally  oriented towards  occupations  and functions  but  rather 

towards  operations and  processes  in working  routine. 

Increasingly automated  documentation  of working  steps  means that 

performance  can be assessed  more exactly  and errors  precisely  identified 

The division  of working tasks will  be less strict  in the future  and there 

will  be a more  holistic form  of  labour  organisation. 

O 
J» 
IO 

When working  in virual worlds  in our  company,  it  is sometimes  unclear 

whether there is another virtual  system  (e.g. an electronic  order  system) 

or a real colleague  behind an interface  in the virtual system. 

J 

Infratest Sozialforschung 

Skill requirements  of  specialised  personnel  in the field  of  logistics 
Whereas  the  previous  statements  related  to  general  development  trends  in 
the  field  of  logistics,  the  focus  in  the  following  statements  was  on  two 
questions:  (1)  How  high  are  current  skill  requirements  at  the  level  of 
specialised  personnel  in  the  field  of  logistics?  (2)  To what  extent  will  these 
requirements  change  over the  next three  years? 

A  total  of  35  skill  requirements  were  presented  to  the  experts  for 
evaluation.  The  following  two  graphs  summarise  the  current  rating  of  a 
number of selected  requirements  and the expected rise in requirements  over 
the next  three  years. 

As  far  as  current  requirements  are  concerned,  orientation  towards  the 
interests  and  circumstances  of  the  client  very  clearly  stands  in  top  position 
(with an average  rating of  3.59  on the scale of  1 to 4, see figure 8).  Problem 
solving along with the client was also given a high rating. The experts  expect 

140 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

Figure 8.  Expected  changes  In skill  requirements 

Future level 

Customer  orientation 

Curren 

|  6,18 

Problem solving along with the client 

_]  5,92 

Personal, non-validated  experiential  learning 

J  5,51 

Entrepreneurship 

_|  5,85 

Specialised requirements  clearly oriented 
towards a clear occupational  profile 

J  5,05 

Considerations of ecological  sustainabillty 

J  5,51 

5.0 

5.5 

6.0 

6.5 

:  Source: 

Current level of requirements  !  4 = very high 

1 = very low 

Infratest - ADeBar main study. 

Future level of requirements  I  7 = steady rise  1 = steep decline 

3,53 

3,15 

3.12 

3.08 

2,61 

2/19 

Figure 9.  Expected  changes  in skill  requirements 

Average changes over the next 3 years - Part Β 

Future level 

Electronic communication  in the  Internet 

Proficiency  in the  Internet 

Working with databases (e.g. SQL) 

E-commerce,  e-business 

Internet  programming  (e.g. Java, HTML) 

Web design 

Source: 
Infratest - ADeBar main study. 

Current level of requirements 

4 = very high 

1 = very low 

Future level of requirements 

7 = steady rise  1 = steep decline 

New  skill  requirements  in  logistics 

I  141 

a steep rise  in the importance of these skill  requirements  over the  next  three 
years.  And  entrepreneurship,  already  in  fourth  position  in  the  companies' 
ranking  of  requirements  and  of  considerable  importance  today,  is  also 
expected to  become  much  more  important  in the future. 

The status of specialised knowledge shows a number of shifts in emphasis 
within  the  spectrum  of  skill  requirements.  Despite  a  certain  rise  in  the 
importance  of  specialised  knowledge,  other  skills  and  qualifications  show  a 
much greater  increase  in importance. 

Almost  all  IT skills  tend  to  rank  in  the  bottom  third  of the  current  scale  of 
importance  for  specialised  personnel  in  the  field  of  logistics.  However  this 
situation  will  soon  change.  The  importance  of  many  of  these  skills  will  rise 
considerably over the next three years. This applies both to more general  ICT 
skills, e.g. web-based communication, as well as specific  application-oriented 
competences,  e.g. working  with  databases  or  e-commerce  and  e-business. 
In contrast, the rise  in importance  is considerably  less evident  in the  case of 
other  IT skills, e.g. knowledge  of  Internet  programming  or web design, which 
will above  all become  important  for  a small  group  of specialised  personnel. 

4.  Conclusion  and  perspectives 

As  case  studies  show,  changes  in  the  actual  working  task  and  in  the 
surrounding work system lead to new and changing qualification  requirements. 
In this way, for  instance, the  'process controller'  and 'IT logistics  specialist', as 
new  and  empirically  confirmed  sets  of  qualifications  in  logistics,  include  new 
qualification  requirements  such  as  knowledge  of  business  processes, 
materials  tracking  systems  and  people-centred  leadership.  Furthermore,  new 
combinations of qualification  requirements  emerge  such as the combination of 
IT skills and  knowledge  of  enterprise  resource  planning  in the  case  of the  'IT 
logistics  specialist',  or  the  integration  of  elements  from  the  surrounding  work 
system into the actual working  task  in the case of the  'process  controller'. 

The company  survey  shows that the  importance  of specialised  knowledge 
is  changing.  Its  significance  will  still  increase  but  the  significance  of  other 
qualifications  will  increase  much more  markedly. Thus, qualified  workers  are 
increasingly  expected  to  have  communication  skills  and  a  comprehensive 
understanding  of  the  needs  of  other  business  departments  and the  market. 
As  a  result,  various  skill  combinations  are  required:  combinations  of 
specialised  and  overarching  skills;  new  combinations  of  industrial/technical 
and  commercial  requirements;  and  a  stronger  orientation  towards  in-
company  processes  and  operations. 

Skill  requirements  in the  care  of 
the  elderly -  the  Swedish  example 

Gert Alaby, The National Board of Health and Welfare,  Stockholm,  Sweden 

The question  as to which  professional  skills should be required  of future  staff in 
healthcare and social sendees for the elderly should be seen in a wider perspective. 
This article  opens  with  a section  on  the  global  demographic  changes  and  their 
impact on the scope of future assistance requirements among the elderly. After that, 
the  current  situation  regarding  the  supply  of  skills  in  Sweden  is described,  and 
forecasts  of  the  future  demand  for  labour  in  the  healthcare  and  social  sendees 
sector are outlined. In a final section, some conclusions are presented. 

Worldwide,  a  demographic  transition  is  taking  place.  This  process  will 
accelerate  over  the  next  decades.  The  proportion  of  older  people  in  the 
population  compared  to the  number  of  persons  in the  labour  force  is rising, 
and so is the average  life expectancy.  Certainly this is a major  step forward, 
still it challenges decision-makers  globally. 

In Sweden, the workforce  in healthcare  and social services for the elderly 
comprises  200  000  persons.  Approximately  10%  are  university  graduates. 
However, 40% of  home helpers lack adequate vocational training. 

A  representative  sample  of  managers  within  healthcare  and  social 
services  for  the  elderly  in  Swedish  municipalities  were  interviewed  in  early 
2001. The  results  highlight  major  difficulties  in the  recruitment  of personnel, 
especially  nurses, occupational therapists  and physiotherapists. 

Most  municipalities  do  have  strategies  on  how  to  attract  appropriate 

personnel, but unfortunately they  are not effective enough. 

Skill  requirements  in the care  of  the elderly -

the  Swedish example 

143 

The  Swedish  National  Board  of  Health  and  Welfare  has  established  skill 
standards  for  certified  health-care  personnel. At present, we  are  considering 
if it is possible to do the  same for social  workers  and  home  helpers. 

Without  doubt there  is  a need to  define  skill  requirements  and the  proper 
mix of  professionals  in future  healthcare  and  social  services  for  the  elderly. 
Furthermore, working  conditions  have to  become  more  attractive. 

2. 

In several  sectors  developments  are  difficult  to  predict.  Long-term  forecasts 
often prove to be wrong after only a few years. This also applies to  healthcare 
and social services for the elderly, where great uncertainties exist as to future 
needs and the  ensuing  demand for  labour.  However,  one  important  element 
determining  requirements, which  has comparatively  strong forecasting  power 
and which  is  also  fairly  stable, is demographic  development.  The  number  of 
old  people  is  probably  the  single  most  important  factor  for  forecasting  the 
future demand  for  labour  in this field. 

Currently,  a global  demographic  transition  is taking  place. The  number  of 
old  people  is  growing  in  most  countries,  albeit  at  differing  rates.  This 
development  has  been  going  on  for  a  long  time  in  several  developed 
countries  and  is expected  to continue  and  indeed  accelerate  in a  number  of 
OECD  member  states.  But  several  developing  countries,  too,  are  expected 
to experience considerable demographic  change with a growing proportion of 
elderly citizens.  In 2020,  1 000  million  people  are  expected  to  have  reached 
the  age  of  65  or  older,  700  million  of  which  will  be  living  in  developing 
countries. 

Although  a  major  increase  in  average  life  expectancy  is  expected  in  the 
developing  countries,  Europe  will  maintain  its leading position  as the  'oldest' 
continent  in  2020.  The  individual  countries  that  are  estimated  to  have  the 
oldest populations by then will be Japan, Italy, Greece and Switzerland. In the 
OECD member  countries, the proportion  of the population  aged 65 or  above 
is expected  to grow from  146  million to  298  million  between  2000  and 2050, 
i.e.  by  more  than  100%.  This  is  undeniably  a  dramatic  change,  which  will 
affect  our  societies  in  a  number  of  ways.  The  changes  in  the  population 
structure of the OECD countries become clearly apparent  in the figure below, 
in which the situation  in  1960  is compared with the  development  by the  year 
1995  and  with  forecasts  for  the  years  2030  and  2050. The  changes  can  be 
described  as a shift from  a triangular  to a rectangular  shape. 

144 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

Figure  1.  OECD: Population  estimates  and  projections 

1960 

1995 

804 

75-79 

70-74 

65-69 

60-64 

55-59 

50-54 

45-49 

40-44 

35-39 

30-34 

25-29 

20-24 

15-19 

10-14 

5-S 

01 

60 000 

40000 

20 000 

20000 

40000 

60 000 

60000 

40000 

20000 

20000 

40 000 

60000 

2D30 

2050 

80» 

75-79 

70-74 

65-69 

60-64 

55-59 

50-54 

45-49 

40-44 

35-39 

30-34 

25-29 

20-24 

15-19 

10-14 

5-9 

0-4 

60 000 

40000 

40 000 

60 000 

60000 

40000 

20000 

20000 

40000 

60 000 

MEN 

WOMEN 

Population  by sex and age group  in thousands. 

Source:  United  Nations  Population  Division, 'World  Population  Prospects: The  1998  Revisions'. 

Skill  requirements  in the  care of  the  elderly  -
the  Swedish  example 

145 

However, it is not only the  number of elderly  people in the population that is 
important, but also the development of the ratio between persons in dependent 
ages -  children and the elderly -  and those of working age. When the average 
life expectancy of the population in the developed countries is increasing at the 
same  time  as  birth  rates  are falling,  an unfavourable  development  of the 
dependency rate will ensue in the long run. This development can be illustrated 
by a few  examples  from  some G7 countries. The figures  below  show that the 
dependency  rate  is  expected  to  undergo  an  unfavourable  development 
between the years  2015  and 2050 in all the countries described. 

Figure 2.  Overall  dependency  ratios in G7  countries 

Population  aged  0-14  plus aged 65 and over  as  percentage 
of the population  aged  15-64 

United States 

Germany 

Italy 

Canada 

Japan 

France 

United Kingdom 

4— 

100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

1950 

1960 

1970 

1980 

1990 

2000 

2010 

2020 

2030 

2040 

2050 

Source:  United  Nations  Population  Division, 'World  Population  Prospects: The  1998  Revisions'. 

The  scope  of the present  article  does  not allow  us to  elaborate  on  the 

significance of these  changes for society  and the  labour  market. 

If the number  of  people  in different  age groups  within  the population  is 
fundamental  for the assessment  of the future  labour  market  for  healthcare 
and social services, there  are two further  topics which  are of relevance. The 
first one  refers to changes  in morbidity  over  time  and the  second  one to the 
balance between the family, the market  and the  public  sector. 

As for changes  in morbidity  and the  functional  impairments  this  can  lead 
to, there are various hypotheses  regarding the expected development. These 
can be described  as compression  of morbidity,  expansion  of morbidity and 
postponement of morbidity. There is some data to support the  postponement 
of morbidity  hypothesis.  For certain groups of illness, however, we can see a 

146 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

trend towards  increasing  periods  of  illness-induced  functional  handicaps. At 
present,  we  do  not  seem to  possess  sufficiently  reliable  data to  allow  us to 
take a stand on this issue. 

The third element  in the analysis  of the future demand for  healthcare and 
social  services  directed  at  the  public  is  how  the  balance  between  the 
responsibility  of  the  family  and  the  market  and  the  public  sector's 
commitment  may  change.  In several  European  countries,  families' -  i.e.  in 
practice women's -  capacity for taking charge of caring and  nursing tasks is 
decreasing.  In  Sweden,  on  the  other  hand,  we  have  witnessed  a  certain 
increase  in family  responsibility  over the past decade as a result of  cutbacks 
in public healthcare and social services. In a European perspective, however, 
the trend  is clear -  family  responsibility  is declining, while  that  of the  public 
sector  is growing. 

It is difficult to assess the combined effect of the three elements described. 
It  is  clear,  however,  that  demographic  change  has  a very  powerful  impact. 
Moreover,  it  is  perhaps  dangerous  for  us  to  assume  that  a  decline  in 
morbidity  would  lead  to  a  more  substantial  reduction  in  age-standardised 
assistance  needs,  i.e.  the  risk  that  a  person  will  require  help  with  various 
tasks  at  a  given  age.  The  possibilities  of  families  to  meet  this  growing 
demand are likely to be limited in most developed countries. 

The conclusion we can draw  from this  is that both the developed  and the 
developing  countries  can  be  expected  to  be  faced  with  demographic 
challenges  which  will  pose  great  demands  on  various  actors  to  adjust  and 
develop  new ways of living and caring relations. In this process, cooperation 
and  exchange  between  countries  are  fundamental.  Mutual  learning  on  how 
societies can 'grow old' while  retaining their  social  balance  and  reaching set 
welfare targets  appears vital in this context. 

3. 

Healthcare  and  social  services  for  the  elderly  in  Sweden  were  built  up 
following the Second World War. Public responsibility  was extended, and the 
duties  of  municipalities  and county  councils  were  defined.  In the  1960s and 
1970s,  public  healthcare  and  social  services  underwent  an  enormous 
expansion. The  1990s, however, saw sharp cutbacks  in the sector. 

Currently,  approximately  645  000  persons  are  working  in  Swedish 
healthcare  and  social  services,  which  corresponds  to  15%  of  the  labour 
force.  The  services  provided  are  to  an  overwhelming  degree  financed 

Skill requirements  in the care  of  the elderly  -
the  Swedish  example 

147 

through taxes  and are  offered  on the basis of  universal  criteria to  all  citizens 
according  to  need.  The  costs  incurred  by  these  services  correspond  to 
approximately  12% of  the country's GNP. 

In the  long-term  care  of  the  elderly,  the  competence  level  among  staff  is 
relatively  low.  No  more  than  approximately  10%  of  the  employees  have  a 
higher  education  degree;  this  can  be  compared  with  the  childcare  and 
emergency  healthcare  sectors,  where  the  corresponding  proportion  is 
between 55 and 60%. Most of the employees are nurse's  aides and  assistant 
nurses.  Of  these,  approximately  60%  have  completed  vocationally  oriented 
upper secondary  education, which  is estimated to be adequate for the  tasks 
performed  by  the  staff  in this  field.  More  than  half  of  the  nurse's  aides  and 
assistant  nurses  recruited  during  the  second  half  of  the  1990s  lacked 
adequate vocational  training, something  which  has caused  the  proportion  of 
unskilled and semi-skilled workers to  increase  among  staff. 

The  National  Labour  Market  Board  {Arbetsmarknadsverket)  has  recently 
published  an  analysis  of  the  supply  of  and  demand  for  staff  in  Swedish 
healthcare  and  social  services  up to  the  year  2015  (Arbetsmarknadsverket, 
2002).  Scenario  techniques  were  applied  in  this  study.  The  results  of  the 
projections  show  an  expected  annual  recruitment  need  of  approximately 
12 000 persons with various  higher  education degrees. The higher  education 
programmes that exist in the field today are designed for approximately 6 500 
students  per  year.  This  means  that  the  analysis  anticipates  a  considerable 
shortage  of  staff  with  higher  education  qualifications  within  healthcare  and 
social services. As for  staff  with  upper  secondary  education, the  shortage of 
qualified personnel  is expected to grow  even  more. The  present  educational 
capacity within  youth  and adult  education  corresponds  to only  about  30% of 
the predicted  recruitment  needs for the period up to 2015. These  recruitment 
needs are mainly dependent on large and growing numbers of staff going into 
retirement, natural departures  into other areas  of activity and the  need for an 
increased  number  of  employees. 

The  National  Board  of  Health  and  Welfare  (Socialstyrelsen)  was 
commissioned by the Swedish government to carry out a descriptive study on 
the  supply  of  skills  in  Swedish  municipalities  and  in  companies  providing 
healthcare and social  services  for the  elderly  on behalf  of  the  municipalities. 
A representative  nationwide  sample  of  managers  within  municipalities  and 
companies were  interviewed  during the winter  of 2001. 

Some of the  results are presented  below  (Socialstyrelsen, 2001). 

•  For  various  staff  categories  within  healthcare  and  social  services  for  the 
elderly,  between  40  and  75% of  the  municipalities  and  companies  stated 
that  they  had  experienced  difficulties  in  recruiting  staff.  The  greatest 

148 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

difficulties were encountered  in the recruitment of nurses, physiotherapists 
and occupational therapists. 

•  Increasing  recruitment  problems  were  expected  for  the  coming  two-year 

period. 

•  The  strategies  considered  to  be  most  efficient  for  securing  the  supply of 
skills  in the  future  were  changing  working  hours, encouraging  employees 
to  undergo vocational training and improving working  conditions. 

•  Less  than  a third  of  the  respondents  considered  it  necessary  for  nurse's 
aides  and  assistant  nurses  to  have  undergone  vocational  training, while 
another third considered this to be desirable. 
During the winter  of  2002, a follow-up to the  above-mentioned  study was 
carried  out.  The  results  were  on  the  whole  unchanged  compared  to  the 
situation  in 2001  (Socialstyrelsen, 2002). 

The  National  Board  of  Health  and  Welfare  is  commissioned  to  certify 
doctors,  nurses,  occupational  therapists,  physiotherapists  and  certain  other 
categories  of  staff  in the  healthcare  sector.  For  an individual  to  be certified, 
he or she  must  have met certain  skill requirements.  For social services staff 
as  well  as  for  assistant  nurses  and  nurse's  aides,  there  are  at  present  no 
nationally  defined  skill  requirements  that  need  to  be  met  by  employees 
before they may perform certain types of tasks. The National Board of Health 
and  Welfare  is  currently  analysing  the  possibilities  of  establishing  skill 
requirements  for  social  services  staff.  The  Board  is  also  considering  which 
professional skills will be needed within healthcare  and social services  in the 
future.  There  are  many  indications  that  the  proportion  of  staff  with  higher 
education  degrees  will  have  to  grow.  Furthermore,  new  workplace-based 
forms  of  qualifying  staff  will  have  to  be  developed.  This  will  require  close 
cooperation between the persons in charge of healthcare and social services, 
those  in charge of  labour  market  issues and those  in charge of education. 

Over the past few years, the Swedish government  has taken a number of 
steps to  promote the supply  of skills  in the  area. One  example  of this  is the 
expansion  of capacity  in  higher  education  programmes  for  the  medical and 
nursing  professions.  In addition, municipalities  and county  councils  are -  as 
employers  and  authorities  in  charge  of  healthcare  -  carrying  out  extensive 
developmental  work  in  order  to  improve  working  conditions,  skills  and 
recruitment  procedures. According  to the  assessment  of  the  National  Board 
of  Health  and  Welfare,  the  steps  taken  so  far  have  not  been  sufficient. 
Therefore  further  measures  are  required from  all  actors  in the  area in order 
to secure the supply  of skills -  both in the short and the long term. 

Skill  requirements  in the care  of the  elderly  -
the Swedish  example 

149 

4.  Summary  and  conclusions 

1.  Globally,  healthcare  and  social  services  for  the  elderly  constitute  a  fast-

growing  labour  market. 
to 

2.  In  order 

improve  the  quality  of  the  services,  e.g. 

increased 
customisation  and  user  influence,  skill  requirements  for  the  various  staff 
groups  need to  be defined. 

3.  Qualification  processes  should  be  established  in  close  cooperation 
between  the  education  system  and those  responsible  for  healthcare  and 
social services.  Even greater  emphasis  needs to be placed on workplace-
based learning. 

4.  The  education  system  must  be  rapidly  adjusted  to  the  growing  demand 
and  new  skills  requirements.  Customised, flexible  adult  education  needs 
to be developed  and expanded. 

5.  Improved  working  conditions  are  a prerequisite  for  attracting  a  sufficient 
number  of  employees.  This  includes  improving  terms  of  remuneration, 
better  leadership,  increased  self-determination  of  the  staff  and  better 
opportunities  for skills development  at work. 

6.  International cooperation is needed in order to create beneficial  conditions 
for the  mobility  of  staff  who  have  undergone  vocational  training  or  intend 
to undergo such training. This is also necessary for sharing experience on 
how the  demographic  transition  may  be  handled  in  such  a way  that  the 
growing  demand  for  healthcare  and  social  services  can  be  met  with 
dignity. 
The  Scandinavian  welfare  states  have  extensive  responsibilities  within 
healthcare  and  social  services.  Moreover,  Sweden  has  already  completed 
the first phase  of  the demographic  transition  that  many  developed  countries 
are now confronted  with. Thus, we  have gained  valuable  experience  on how 
one of society's  important  commitments  can be  met -  experience  that  could 
also be useful for  other  countries. 

150 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

Arbetsmarknadsverket  (National  Labour  Market  Board).  Den  framtida 
personalförsörjningen 
-  Tillgång  och 
rekryteringsbehov till år 2015 [The future supply of personnel in healthcare 
and social services -  supply  and recruitment  needs  up to the year 2015]. 
Ura 2002:3, Stockholm, 2002. 

inom  vård  och  omsorg 

Socialstyrelsen 

and  Welfare). 
Kompetensförsörjning i  vård och omsorg till äldre [The  supply  of  skills in 
healthcare  and social services for the elderly]. Stockholm, 2001. 

(National 

Health 

Board 

of 

Socialstyrelsen 

(National  Board  of  Health  and  Welfare),  Nationell 
handlingsplan  för  äldrepolitiken,  slutrapport  [National  action  plan  for 
policies for the elderly, final  report]. Stockholm, 2002. 

Information  system  for  early 
recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained 
for  the  construction  industry 

Norbert Bromberger, Research  Institute for Vocational Education and Training in 
the Crafts Sector (FBH) of the University of Cologne,  Germany; Helen Diedrich-
Fuhs,  German  Employers'  Organisation for Vocational Training (KWB),  Bonn, 
Germany 

The ability to recognise trends in firms' skill requirements  is of vital importance to 
industry  as  a  whole  if  it  is  to  remain  competitive  over  the  longer  term.  The 
procedure described in this paper is designed to make systematic use of industry's 
wide-ranging  networks  of  experts  to  improve  the  available  data  on  skill 
requirements. The system was developed by the German Employers' Committee on 
Vocational  Training  (KWB)  in  collaboration  with  the  Research  Institute  for 
Vocational  Education  and Training in the Crafts  Sector (FBH) of the  University of 
Cologne and has been used for various branches of industry. 

This paper describes a method for the regular monitoring and early recognition 
of qualification  trends known as the IDQ8, the results obtained  in the specific case 
of the construction  industry  and  how these  can be used  in developing  initial and 
continuing training. 

i.  ntroduction 

The world of  work  in the  21s'  century  is  notable  for  the  rapid changes  taking 
place  in  firms  and  sectors  of  business  and  industry.  The  ability  rapidly  to 
adapt  initial  and  continuing  training  provision  to  meet  new  requirements  as 
they  arise  is  vital  if  firms  are  to  be  able  to  find  workers  with  the  skills  they 
need.  A  situation  of  growing  imbalances  on  the  labour  market  in  which 
substantial demand for skilled  manpower  goes  hand in hand with  high  levels 
of unemployment  enhances  the  importance  for  policy  purposes  of access  to 
up-to-date  information  on trends  in firms' skill  requirements. As time goes  on 
the ability  to  recognise  changes  in  skill  requirements  at  an  early  stage  will 

152 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

take  on  increasing  importance  by  making  it  possible  more  rapidly  to update 
existing  skilled  occupations  and  create  new  ones,  and  to  devise  additional 
training and skill qualifications  in line with industry's  needs. 

The membership of professional and trade associations comprises several 
thousand  qualified  experts  who  are  in  direct  contact  with  the  firms  in  their 
sector. By using this dense network it is possible at comparatively  low cost to 
maintain a regular  contact  not just  with larger companies  but also with small 
and medium-sized firms. The KWB, as the body coordinating the activities of 
industrial organisations  in all matters connected with the reform of  initial and 
continuing training and the introduction  of new skilled occupation categories, 
works  closely  with  experts 
trade 
organisations,  firms  and  educational  establishments.  The  KWB's  own 
committees of training managers, and the vocational training committees and 
training centres of the trade and professional associations are another source 
of  expert  assistance. 

in  the  professional  associations, 

These  are  the  resources  which  the  KWB  in  collaboration  with  the 
University  of Cologne's vocational training research  institute (FBH)  is able to 
utilise  in  projects  concerned  with  early  recognition  of  skill  requirements 
sponsored  by the German  Ministry  for  Education  and Research. 

Figure  1.  Industry's vocational training  network 

Information  system  lor  early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends -

results  obtained  for  the  construction  industry 

153 

The  KWB  projects  form  part  of the  FreQueNz  research  sponsored  by the 
German  Ministry  for  Education  and  Research  which  is concerned  with  early 
recognition of skill  requirements. 

2.  Project  design 

The  project  was  based  on  the  realisation  that  firms  themselves  are  largely 
aware  of  their  skill  requirements  but  that  the  means  for  systematically 
in  planning 
recording  this  information  to  allow  its  prompt  exploitation 
appropriate  training  do  not  exist.  This  calls  for  an  efficient  system  whereby 
the information  possessed  by  persons  in  industrial  organisations  and  other 
bodies  can  be  centrally  recorded  and  regularly  communicated  to  the 
authorities  responsible for  initial  and continuing training. 

The requirements  for an efficient  information  system  are twofold: 

1.  reliable  sources; 
2.  efficient gathering  and processing  of information. 

Figure 2.  Features of an efficient  information  system 

Features  ol  an  efficient 
information  system 

Γ 

Reliability 
ol resources 

J 

Sector  data 

Trade press 
Trade fairs 
Technical  literature 

Experts 

in sector 
in trade  or 
occupation 

4 

1 

Efficient  gathering 
and processing 

for available 

Use of Internet 

ofavailable 

Inquiries 

> 

r 

154 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

The  KWB  project  utilises  the  IDQ©system  for the  regular  monitoring  of skill 
trends.  This  is  a  multistage  information  gathering  system  in  which  sector 
experts  actively  participate.  The  IDQ©process,  which  was  developed  by  the 
KWB  with  the  assistance  of  its  academic  support  team,  may  be  illustrated 
graphically  as  follows: 

Figure  3.  The  IDQ®  process 

Instrument for  regulary  monitoring skill  developments 

Sector-specific  start-up 
Telephone  interview 
Collecting  easily available sources of  sector 
information  (trade press, trade fairs etc.) 

Monitoring 

Identifying and recording sectoral trends 
from  sources  (trade press, trade fairs etc.) 
Use of the  Internet 

J 

Expert workshop I 

Validation  of  recorded sectoral trends 
Drafting  of a questionnaire 

Consulting experts 

Quantitative survey  of expert  network 
(paperand  pencil, Internet) 

Expert workshop II 

Evaluation of survey  results 
Drafting  of conclusions  as to consequences for 
the shaping of the sector-related training  system 

J 

Reporting 

Compilation  of  results in a sector  report 

) 

Information system  for  early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained  for the construction  industry 

155 

The system  operates  as follows: 

Sector-specific  start-up 
In order  to  conduct  the  search  for  subjects  relating  to  skill  trends  in  a given 
sector  as  efficiently  as  possible,  the  project  coordinator  of  the  trade 
association  concerned  is initially  interviewed  by telephone, briefed  about  the 
project,  its  objectives  and  methodology  and  consulted  as  to  the  principal 
sources  of  information.  The  latter  are  then  used  as  the  basis  for  a  search 
operation  by  computer-assisted  robots  -  known  as  'intelligent  agents'. 
Preferred  sources  are  those  easily  accessible  via  the  Internet  that  can  be 
evaluated  at  relatively  low  cost  (Internet  addresses  of  associations,  trade 
press, trade fairs, publishers' information, etc.). These sources then form the 
basis for  monitoring  operations. 

Monitoring - gathering  sectoral  information  as basic  data 
Fundamental  to  the  monitoring  process  is  the  assumption  that  items  at  the 
level of softer  (informal)  forms  of continuing training  can  already  be taken  as 
leading  indicators.  The  term  'monitoring'  is  used  here  to  mean  employing 
intelligent  agents  to  identify  and  gather  information  from  the  Internet.  The 
cost  of  the  process  varies  according  to  the  type  of  soft  continuing  training 
involved.  Thus  trade  publications,  trade  fair  programmes  or  recently 
published technical  literature  are easily  tracked  down via the  Internet. 

During  the  monitoring  process  sectoral  subject-matter  of  relevance  is 
extracted from the various sources proposed by the project coordinator at the 
start-up stage or found through the Internet. The results are then collated  and 
summarised  in  a  monitoring  report  and  processed  ready  for  the  first  expert 
workshop. 

First expert  workshop 
Workshop  participants  are  the  project  coordinator  of  the  relevant  trade 
association  and  the  academic  support  team,  together  with  two  or  three 
specialist  representatives  of the sector concerned who  are  nominated by the 
project  coordinator. 

The  information  gathered  during  the  monitoring  process  is  checked  for 
relevance and presented by the academic support team in a form  appropriate 
to  the  sector.  This  presentation  facilitates  processing  by  the  workshop 
participants  who  can  supplement  it  with  their  own  expert  knowledge.  The 
results are then  recorded  and converted to  questionnaire  form. 

156 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Consulting the expert network 
The  purpose  of  the  questionnaire  is  to  reach  the  maximum  number  of 
specialists in the sector who are able to assess the workshop's findings as to 
skill trends and add to them where  necessary. 

The questionnaire  has so far been sent  out by conventional  means direct 
to  the  experts  in  the  trade  and  professional  associations,  the  number  of 
whom  will depend  on the  size  of the  network  accessed.  It is circulated  with 
the  help  of  the  academic  support  team  and  the  relevant  trade  and 
professional  associations.  The  results  are  evaluated  and  processed  by  the 
academic  support team. 

Study  of  questionnaire  findings  by  the  second  expert  workshop and 
reporting procedure 
In a second workshop the experts who took part in the first study the findings 
obtained  with  the  questionnaire  in  order  to  draw  conclusions  as  to  the 
consequences  for  training  in  the  sector.  These  are  then  summarised  in  a 
report by the academic  support team. 

Finally the process  is critically  reviewed  before being repeated. 

Information  system for  early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained  for  the construction  industry 

157 

3.  Results 

General  results 

The  survey  method  described  has  so  far  been  used  for  the  construction, 
printing/publishing,  retail, electrical/electronics,  car  and  insurance  industries. 
In all, 1814 useful items of information concerning future training  requirements 
were  obtained.  The  procedure  followed  allowed  comments  to  be  made  on 
more than one type of training  under a single  heading  (see Table  1). 

Table  1.  Total comments  concerning  training  in the sectors  studied 

Updating 
or creating 
new skilled 
occupations 

Additionals 
kills 
(during  training) 

Regulated 
continuing  training 
(professional 
association 
or  government 
regulation) 

Non-regulated 
continuing 
training 

Other  informal 
continuing 
training 

195 

186 

305 

592 

536 

Total 

1 814  J 

J 

195  items  were  put  under  the  heading  of  'Updating  or  creating  new  skilled 
occupations',  pointing  to  the  need  for  a  central  government  training 
regulation. 

305  items  were  assigned  to  'Regulated  continuing  training  (professional 
association  or  government  regulation)',  similarly  indicating  a  need  for 
continuing training to be regulated by professional  association or central 
government. 

186  items  were  assigned  to  'Additional  skills  (during  training)'  and  592  to 
'Non-regulated  continuing  training'.  Thus  778  items  concerning  initial 
and continuing training were considered  by the experts as  not  requiring 
strict  legal  regulation  and  suitable  for  inclusion  in  a  normal  training 
programme. 

536  items  were  assigned  to  'Other  informal  continuing  training'.  These 
include  practices  specific  to  a  given  firm,  technical  literature  or  trade 
fairs, which  are  of  a  less formal  nature  and  focus  more  on the  specific 
requirements  of  a training  requester  that  may  have  to  be  met  at  short 
notice.  In the experts' opinion these items do not require  regulation by a 
training  body  or  by  law. 

158 

Early identification of skill needs  in  Europe 

Specific  results for the construction  industry 

Given  the  overall  volume  of  data  obtained  we  shall  present  the  ten  items 
considered  most  important  by  the  experts  in  the  case  of  the  construction 
industry  accompanied  by  references  to  possible  initial  or  further  training 
measures  (Table 2). 

Table 2.  Top Ten items for the construction  industry with  mention 

of possible training  measures 

1 

2 

3 

Customer 
satisfaction 

Assessment of 
performance in 
executing orders 

Rationalisation 
of construction 
work 

4.72 

0.54 

4.64 

0.49 

4.64 

0.70 

4 

Personnel 
management 

4.60 

0.50 

5  CA quotations 

4.52 

0.59 

6  Computerised 
invoicing 

7  Computerised 
order checking 

8 

9 

Assessment 
of contract 
settlement 

Compliance with 
government 
contract 
regulations 

4.52 

0.51 

4.52 

0.59 

4.52 

0.51 

4.44 

0.71 

+ 

-!-

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

10  Ensuring 

liquidity 

4.43 

0.71 

-!-

+ 

+ 

Information system for early recognition ol sectoral trends ■ 

results obtained for the construction industry 159 

In evaluating the results one sees that none of the comments relating to 
skills referred to updating or creating a new job category. Although this might 
at first seem surprising, it is explainable by the fact that the occupations in the 
construction industry have been thoroughly overhauled and the process was 
completed shortly before the questionnaire was sent out. 

The current revision of the master qualification profile for the construction 
industry will serve as an additional aid in evaluating results. To this end we 
compared our results with the items of the process that is still under way. We 
found that a number of the subjects touched upon are taken into account in 
the provisional master profile, where reference is made, for example, to 
environmental considerations and use of information technology. 

The comments recorded and evaluated in Table 3 show the importance 
attributed to the use of computers in executing orders to be high. The experts 
consider the use of information technology as a relevant aspect of skills since 
it is used increasingly in preparing work, progress-chasing and subsequent 
processing. Accordingly employees will need the skills required to cope with 
the new technology as an additional qualification or acquire it through 
continuing training. 

Table 3. References to growing computerisation and training 

requirements 

CA price calculation 

4.29 

0.84 

Computerised work 
preparation 

Computerised order 
checking 

Computerised 
progress- chasing 

Use of Internet 
for advertising 

Computerised site 
planning 

4.19 

0.86 

4.11 

1.00 

3.88 

1.03 

3.88 

0.93 

3.80 

0.96 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

->r 

+ 

+ 

->r 

J 

References to low-energy and ecological building or recycling of building 

materials also emphasise the importance given to environmental 
considerations by the construction industry (Table 4). 

160 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 4. Comments indicating growing environment-consciousness 

and relevance for training purposes 

„ atenuara ι or creating 

Standard 

Updating 
or creating 

I deviation newskilled 

Additional e o n l i n u i ng t r a i n i ng Non-

Regulated 

■.«»»■■■cu luuMULj association or 
occupations | training) | training regulation) 

.
C""ng associationer continuing m 
training) t r a i n ¡ n. reau|at¡onl training 

· "* (professional « ■ " " "? informal 

Low­energy building 

4.03 

0.94 

Ecological building 

3.63 

1.07 

Environmental 
management 

in executing orders 

3.33 

0.94 

Materials recycling 

3.44 

1.18 

4. Conclusion/Outlook 

+ 
+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 
+ 

+ 

+J 

Project results and experience to date indicate that the IDQ© approach 
makes for an efficient and comprehensive gathering of data utilisable for 
early recognition of skill requirements. 

Essential for the lasting efficiency of this method is the active involvement 

of those in the industrial sector concerned, viz: 
• gatekeepers who open doors to sector experts for the KWB and its 

researchers; 

• the sector experts who assist in research; 
• expert networks committed to active participation in the questionnaire. 

The more active the part played by the trade organisations in the KWB 

project the greater the usefulness for all those taking part. The data 
assembled can be used not only as an argument for the need for training in 
certain skills but also, after further processing, for market research or 
structural organisation purposes. 

The use of the IDQ® concept does, however, come up against certain limits 
when searching out data relevant to skills in newer sectors of industry, which 
frequently are not associatively structured and thus have no established 
network of experts who can be consulted on matters of vocational training so 
as to permit the early recognition of skill requirements. 

A follow­on project started in May 2002 is aimed at further developing the 
information system with the following specific focus for research and testing: 
• conducting further sectoral studies (studies of the chemical industry, the 
banking and financial sector and the food industry are planned for 2002); 

Information  system  for early  recognition  of  sectoral  trends  -
results  obtained for  the  construction  industry 

161 

•  follow-up  studies  to  determine  the  trend  of  skills  within  a single  branch  of 

industry; 

•  expanding  the  range  of  tools  to  include  new  branches  of  industry  without 

associative  structures  by  means  of surveys  in the  field; 

•  Internet-based  expansion  of  the  information  system  for  future-oriented 

uses and  a more  efficient  mode of data gathering; 

•  developing  a questionnaire  for identifying  skill shortages  and  incorporating 

it in the  IDQ® process. 
A  further  objective  of  the  project  is  the  comprehensive  preparation  and 
evaluation  of  survey  results  in  collaboration  with  experts  so  as  to  produce 
recommendations  for  initial and continuing  training. 

PART  III 

Initiatives 
for  specific  target  groups 
and  SMEs 

implications 

trends  have  specific 

target 
Skills 
groups,  and  these  are  brought  out  in  the  first  two  contributions 
in  this  Part:  on  women's  employment  and  on  low  skilled  people. 
The  last  two  contributions  in  this  Part  concentrate  on  skills 
trends  that  are  posing  particular  challenges,  above  all  for  small 
and  medium  sized  enterprises  (SMEs). 

for  different 

The 

targeted  approach  adopted  makes 

that 
experience  acquired  at  sectoral  level  can  be  incorporated  into 
various  other  fields  of  application  in  order  to  achieve  positive 
effects  on  employment  for  specific  target  groups  and  SMEs. 

it  clear 

Articles  in  Part  III 

. 

Gerard  Hughes, Jerry J.  Sexton  (UK) 
Forecasting  female shares  of  employment 
by occupation  in  Ireland 

Beate Zeller  (D) 
Services  in complex  structures -  trends 
in the way skills are  developing  in low skilled  work 

Peter  Wordelmann (D) 
Early  recognition  of  international 
qualifications  for  SMEs 

Lothar Abicht,  Rainer  Werner (D) 
New qualifications  in SMEs for  societal 
and technological  change -  skilling  of IT  users 

Forecasting female  shares 
of  employment 
by occupation  in  Ireland 

Gerard Hughes and Jerry J. Sexton,  Economic and Social Research Institute 
(ESRI),  Dublin,  Ireland 

Sectoral  employment  forecasts  for Ireland  are produced  using the ESRI medium-
term  macro-economic  model.  Past  trends  and  expectations  of  the  likely 
development of occupations are used to project occupational profiles within each 
sector.  Occupational  share coefficients  are calculated  for  each sector. The trends 
revealed  by these shares are analysed and summarised  in linear or semi-log trend 
equations. The projected  occupational  profiles  within sectors are then applied  to 
the employment forecasts for each sector. 

A gender-based  occupational  forecast  is obtained  by means of a separate sub 
model.  This  involves  the  projection  of  past  trends  for  the  share  of  female 
employment  in different  occupations. The female shares of employment are made 
consistent with  the female  labour force  forecasts  produced  by the ESRI medium-
term macro-economic  model. The  forecasts  of  female  shares  of  employment  by 
occupation is illustrated with long-term occupational forecasts for 2015. 

1. 

The occupations  in which  most women work differ  significantly  from those in 
which  men work. This  may  not be clear when one compares the  distribution 
of male and female employment at the level of the nine major groups used to 
classify  employment  by  occupation  in  the  European  variant  of  the 
International  Standard  Classification  of  Occupations  (ISCO  88  COM). 
However,  it  becomes  very  clear  when  the  comparison  is  made  at  the  unit 
group  level.  Defining  'male'  and  'female'  occupations  as  those  in  which  at 
least 80% of the workers are of one sex, Table 1 shows the top twenty gender 
dominated  occupations  at the unit group  level in  Ireland in 1996. 

Men  employed 

ten  male-dominated  occupations  are 
concentrated  in  building  and  construction  whereas  women  employed  in the 
top  ten  female-dominated  occupations  are  concentrated  in  medical  and 

in  the 

top 

Forecasting female shares of employment by occupation in Ireland 

165 

personal  service  sectors.  While  occupational  segregation  by  sex  is  very 
obvious  in the  case  of  both  the top  ten  male  and  female  gender-dominated 
occupations  the  top  ten  female  occupations  are  somewhat  more  integrated 
than  the  top  ten  male  occupations.  The  full  list  of  gender-dominated 
occupations  in 1996 shows that the number of occupations which were male-
dominated  was  six  times  larger  than  the  number  which  were  female-
dominated. In terms of the depth and breadth of occupational  segregation  by 
sex the  difficulties  of  access  to  a  wide  range  of  occupations  are  far  greater 
for women than for  men. 

Similar  concentrations  of  male  and  female  workers  are  found  in  other 
European  countries.  For  example,  in  France  and  West  Germany  at  the 
beginning  of  the  1990s  over  80%  of  nurses,  typists,  housekeeping  service 
workers,  and  hairdressers  and  beauticians  were  women  (see  Anker,  1998, 
Table 11.1). 

Table  1.  Top twenty gender-dominated  occupations  at the three  digit 

level  in Ireland  1996 

' 

Male-dominated occupations 

KVM^ 

Female-dominated occupations 

500 

Bricklayers and masons 

99.7 

459 

Secretaries, medical, legal, personal 
assistants, typists and 
word processor operators 

Έ^Λ 

98.2 

502 

Plasterers 

99.6 

670 

Housekeepers (domestic and 
non-domestic) 

501 

885 

Roofers, slaters, tilers, sheeters 
and cladders 

99.5 

460 

Receptionists and receptionist-
telephonists 

Mechanical plant drivers/operatives 
and crane drivers 

99.5 

342 

Medical radiographers 

570 

Carpenters and joiners 

99.4 

340 

Nurses and midwives 

923 

Road construction workers etc. 

99.4 

343 

Physiotherapists and chiropodists 

540 

Motor mechanics, auto electricians 
tyre and exhaust fitters 

; 99.2 

652 

Educational assistants 

504 

Builders and building contractors 

99.1 

553 

Sewing machinists, menders, 
darners and embroiderers 

97.1 

96.9 

93.3 

92.3 

91.2 

90.5 

88.6 

395 

922 

1 
Pipe layers/pipe jointers and relatei 
construction workers 

Rail construction 
and maintenance workers 

99.1 

660 

Hairdressers, barbers and beauticians 

87.3 

99.1 

953 

Counterhands and catering assistants 

86.7 

> 

Source:  Census of population 1996, Volume 7, Table 8. 

166 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Because of the concentration of female employment in particular 

occupations it is important when making occupational employment forecasts 
to provide some information on future employment prospects for women. The 
occupational employment forecasts for Ireland, therefore, provide estimates 
of the female share of employment by occupational group in the target year. 
The purpose of this paper is to explain how the forecasts of female shares of 
employment by occupation are made using data from the occupational 
employment forecasts for Ireland for 2015 which were published recently. 
Figure 1 provides a graphical representation of the structure of the FAS/ 
ESRI occupational forecasting model. On the left hand side it shows the various 
steps involved in developing the projections of the number employed in each 
sector, while on the right it shows the sequence of steps required to produce 
forecasts of each occupation's share of employment in each sector. In the 
centre it shows how these two sets of forecasts are linked to provide forecasts 
of expected employment in each occupational group in the target year. 

Figure 1. FAS/ESRI occupational forecasting model 

ESRI 
macro-model 

Employment 
11 sectors (2005 and 2015)J 

FAS/ESRI 
sectoral model 

Employment 
29 sectors 

(2005 and 2015)  J 

Male/female employment 
45 occupational sub­groups 
(2005 and 2015) 

» I* 

Employment 
45 occupational 
sub­groups χ 29 sectors 
(2005 and 2015) 

CP and LFS 
196 occupations 
χ 113 sectors (1981­97) 

Employment 
45 occupational sub­groups 
χ 29 sectors (1981­97) 

FÁS/ESRI 
occupational shares model 

Occupational shares 
45 occupational sub­groups 
χ 29 sectors (2005 and 2015) 

sub-model 

Represents 
model or sub­model 

Represents 

data input or output  J 

Forecasting female shares of employment by occupation in Ireland 

167 

The  basic  approach  adopted  involves  the  use  of  employment  forecasts 
which  are  produced  for  the  target  year  (2015)  by  the  Economic  and  Social 
Research  Institute  (ESRI)  macro-economic  model. (1)  Employment  forecasts 
are made for  11 major  sectors as part of the  Institute's  regular  Medium-Term 
Reviews  (MTRs)  of  the  Irish  economy.  For  the  purposes  of  compiling 
occupational  projections,  these  are  disaggregated  to  provide  employment 
forecasts  for  a  wider  range  of  29  more  detailed  sectoral  categories.  To  do 
this,  past  relationships  between  the  original  MTR  sectors  and  the  more 
disaggregated  sub-sectors  were  analysed  over  the  period  1981-97.  These 
were  then  used  to  project  the  sub-sectoral  shares  within  the  eleven 
aggregate  MTR  industries,  mainly  on the  basis  of  linear  regressions. 

The next step  in the process, which takes account  both of past trends  and 
expectations  as  to  the  likely  development  of  occupations  over  the  forecast 
period,  involves  the  calculation  of  projected  occupational  profiles  within  the 
29  sectors.  The  basic  data  used  to  analyse  occupational  shares  within 
industries were taken  from  1981  and  1986  censuses  of  population  and from 
the annual  labour  force  surveys  carried  out  between  1989  and  1997. These 
sources  were  used  to  produce  detailed  and  consistent  employment  data 
classified  simultaneously 
into  196  occupations  and  113  industries  for 
selected  years  over  the  period  1981-97.  The  data  were  subsequently 
aggregated  to  provide  matrices  showing  employment  in  29  sectors  and  45 
occupational  sub-groups.  Occupational  share  coefficients  for  each  sector 
were then  calculated  for  each  of  these  matrices  for  the  selected  years  and 
the  trends  derived  from  these  were  used  to  project  within-industry 
occupational  distributions  for  the  target  forecast  year.  These  projected 
occupational  profiles  were  then  applied  to  the  employment  forecasts  for  the 
29 industries  in question in order to derive occupational forecasts for 2015 in 
absolute terms. 

It  will  be  noted  that  it  is  an  inherent  feature  of  the  method  used  that 
occupational  change  is, to a significant  degree,  influenced  by  developments 
in  different  sectors  or  industries.  This  does  not  imply  that  the  pattern  of 
change for different  skills and occupations is not subject to other  independent 
influences, or does  not relate to a wider  range of factors  in society  generally. 
Nonetheless,  the  approach  used  does  imply  that  the  sectoral  pattern  of 
underlying  output  and employment  growth  constitutes  a primary  influence. 

The  gender-based  classifications  of  the  occupational  forecasts  are 
obtained  by  means  of  the  separate  sub-model  shown  in  Figure  2.  Basically 

(')  The description of the  FÁS/ESRI  occupational forecasting  model is taken from the report by Sexton, 

Hughes  and  Finn,  2002. 

168 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

this  involves the  projection  of  past trends for the share  of female  employment 
in  different  occupations,  taking  into  account,  where  relevant,  the  changing 
nature  of  these  trends  over  the  period  since  1981. For  the  great  majority  of 
the  45  occupational  sub-groups  involved  the  initial  forecasts  for  2015  were 
obtained  on  the  basis  of  linear  regressions.  However,  for  a  few  categories 
semi-log  equations  were  used,  as  there  was  either  evidence  of  a  fairly 
longstanding  stabilisation  in  the  relevant  female  employment  shares,  or  the 
use  of the  regression  approach  would  have  implied  unrealistically  large  such 
shares 
in  the  forecast  year.  All  of  the  female  employment  shares  as 
calculated  by  the  above  methods  were  moderated  slightly  in  order  to  render 
them  consistent  with 
force 
forecasts  for 2015  as derived from the  Medium-Term  Review  macroeconomic 
modelling  process. 

independently  compiled 

female 

labour 

the 

Figure  2.  FÁS/ESRI  gender  forecasting  model 

Male  and female  employment 
45 occupational  sub-groups 
(1981-97) 

I 

J 

Female  share of employment 
45 occupational  sub-groups 
(1981-97) 

J 

Female shares 
45  occupational 
sub-groups 
(2005 and 2015j 

Male/female  employment 
45 occupational  sub-groups 
(2005 and 2015) 

-—— 

• 
Total  employment 
45 occupational  sub-groups 
'oups 
(2005 and 2015) 

I 

Forecasting  female  shares  of employment  by occupation  in  Ireland 

169 

2. 

ihe  occupational  classification 

As  already  indicated,  the  most  detailed  occupational  classification  used 
involves 45 occupational sub-groups which are, in turn, amalgamated  into  14 
major  groups.  The  45  sub-groups  were  initially  formed  by  combining  much 
larger numbers  of occupational  codes  used in the  1981 census of  population 
(numbering  some  200  in  total).  The  1981  census  structure  was  used  to 
ensure the availability of a consistent trend pattern covering a sufficiently  long 
retrospective  period. Census classifications are revised on an ongoing  basis, 
the changes  made usually  involving  more detail. In this regard, for the  period 
over which  trends  are  observed, one  is  constrained  by  the  level  of  detail  in 
the  census  structure  for  the  earliest  year.  The  detailed  1981  census 
occupational  codes  are, therefore,  basic  to the  forecasting  exercise  and the 
data  in  detailed  occupational  tabulations  taken  from  later  censuses  and 
labour force  surveys  were  subject  to  amalgamations  in order to  render  them 
consistent  with the  1981 figures. 

Details of the structure  adopted  are set out in Table 2, which shows the  14 
major  groupings  and the  45  constituent  occupational  sub-groups. The  basic 
rationale  underlying  the  amalgamation  procedures  applied  to  the  detailed 
census  codes  is  to  try  and  achieve  occupational  groupings  which  bring 
together (a) persons exercising similar types of employment-related  functions 
and  (b)  possessing  similar  levels  of  skill  and/or  qualifications.  One  might 
summarise  the  group  structure  by  saying  that  the  major  groups  (apart  from 
those  which  relate to  agricultural  occupations  and self  employed  persons  in 
services)  are  generally  hierarchical  in  nature  in  that  they  purport  to  bring 
together activities  requiring the same level of  skill. At the sub-group  level the 
objective  is to  distinguish  different types  of activity within  each  major  group. 
While  every  effort  has  been  made  to  establish  appropriate  relationships 
between  the  standard  occupational  categories  and  the  functions  chosen, 
and,  where  appropriate,  specific  skill  or  qualification  levels,  the  source 
material clearly limits the extent to which this can be achieved. Nevertheless, 
it is considered  that the  occupational  categories  as finally  defined  constitute 
relevant  and  distinct  entities  on  the  basis  of  the  criteria  employed.  The 
system  as  described  above  is  broadly  compatible  with  the  ILO  International 
Standard  Classification  of  Occupations  (ISCO-88)  and  the  UK  Standard 
Occupational  Classification  (SOC). 

170 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 2.  Occupational  groups  and  sub-groups 

Agricultural  occupations 

Managers 

Proprietors  in services 

Professional  occupations 

Associate  professionals 

Clerical  occupations 

Skilled workers  (maintenance) 

Other skilled workers 

Production  operatives 

Transport/communications  workers 

Sales workers 

Security  workers 

Personal service workers 

Labourers 

1 

Agricultural 

Higher managers 
Other  managers 

Proprietors  in services 

Health  professionals 
Education  professionals 
Engineering and science 
Business/finance/legal  profs. 
Religious 
Other  professions 

Health 
Science and engineering 
Others 

Clerks 
Typists, telephonists etc. 
Warehouse/dispatch  clerks 

Electricians, electrical  fitters 
Fitters and mechanics 

Metal/engineering  workers 
Woodworkers 
Clothing/textile workers 
Printers 
Skilled  building workers 
Foremen/supervisors 
Other skilled workers 

Electrical/electronics 
Metals/engineering 
Food, drink, tobacco  processing 
Clothing/textiles 
Other plant and production opers. 
Packers/bottlers 

Drivers 
Postmen, couriers 
Others 

Sales agents 
Retail sales assistants 
Others 

Army/Gardai  (excl. officers) 
Other security  workers 

Catering  occupations 
Domestic  servants and cleaners 
Other personal service workers 
Occupation  unstated 

Agricultural  labourers 
Other  labourers 

Forecasting female shares of employment by occupation in Ireland 

171 

3. 

The  main  features  of  the  results,  showing  net  employment  changes  for  the 
fourteen  standard  occupational  groups  used,  are  shown  in  Table  3  and 
Figure  3.  The  MTR  forecasts,  which  underpin  the  occupational  projections, 
envisage  a  significant  rise  in  total  employment  over  the  period  up  to  2015, 
even if this is expected to be at a slower pace than in the economically  buoyant 
years  of  the  1990s.  The  total  number  of  persons  at  work  in the  economy  is 
predicted to rise by over 25% over the forecast period, from  1 588 000 in 2000 
to 1 989 000 in 2015, an aggregate  increase of over 400 000, or nearly 27 000 
(1.5%)  on an annual  average  basis. While this  represents  a noticeably  slower 
rate of employment growth than in the ten years from 1990 to 2000 (which was 
45 500, or 3.4% per year on average), it is somewhat  greater than the pace of 
expansion  which  occurred  over  the  longer  period  between  1981  and  2000, 
which involved a net  increase of 24 000  annually. 

Table 3.  Employment  by occupation, 1981-2000, with forecasts  for 

2005 and  2015 

Agriculture 

Managers 

Proprietors  in services 

Professionals 

Associate  professionals 

Clerical 

Skilled workers  (maintenance) 

Other skilled workers 

Production  operatives 

Transport and  communications 

Sales workers 

Security workers 

Personal service 

Labourers 

Total 

2015 

I  Change 2000-15 

% 

Ί 

92.4 

-29.4 

-24.2 

000s 

110.8 

135.3 

169.5 

44.2 

•  47.7 

233.2 

125.8 

222.8 

84.7 

160.7 

141.3 

73.2 

291.1 

157.5 

230.2 

93.6 

179.1 

150.2 

77.7 

121.9 

115.0 

49.7 

192.7 

102.7 

208.2 

79.7 

150.9 

129.4 

65.6 

129.0 

145.6 

178.4 

42.8 

142.2 

58.4 

46.0 

168.7 

60.7 

52.2 

213.8 

55.3 

177.4 

57.0 

37.6 

106.8 

49.1 

157.9 

54.3 

109.2 

99.4 

50.2 

74.2 

31.3 

69.3 

64.1 

54.5 

-2.0 

98.4 

54.8 

22.1 

13.9 

28.2 

20.8 

12.1 

49.5 

9.5 

71.6 

-3.1 

47.4 

-3.9 

51.1 

53.4 

10.6 

17.4 

18.7 

16.1 

18.5 

38.4 

22.1 

50.3 

-5.3 

1137.8 

1 588.1 

1753.0 

1  989.0 

400.9 

25.2 

Source:  Sexton, Hughes and Finn, 2002, Table 3.1. 

172 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 3. Change  in employment  by occupation, 2000-15  (%) 

Associate  professionals 

Professionals 

Personal  service 

Managers 

Sales  workers 

Security  workers 

Other skilled  workers 

Transport  and  communications 

Skilled workers  (maintenance) 

Production  operatives 

Clerical 

Proprietors  in services 

Labourers 

Agriculture 

L 

-30% 

-20% 

-10% 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

Source:  Sexton, Hudges and  Finn, 2002, Figure 3.1. 

Turning to  the  changes  for  individual  occupations, the  numbers  engaged 
in agricultural activities are expected to fall over the forecast period, by nearly 
30 000. As a result, the predicted 2015 employment  level for this occupation, 
at just  over  92 000, will then  represent  only  some  4.5% of the total  number 
at work in the economy. This compares with just  under 8% in 2000 and 14% 
in  1990. This  implies,  of  course,  an  even  faster  rate of  growth  among non-
agricultural  occupations  than  that  reflected  in  the  global  figures  already 
quoted. The  number  at work  outside  of agriculture  is forecast to increase by 
over  430  000  between  2000  and  2015,  a  relative  rise  of  over  1.7%  on 
average each year.  However, within this  broad occupational spectrum, while 
increases  are  expected  for  all  occupational  activities,  different  rates  of 
expansion will apply to the various sub-categories  identified. 

The  largest  employment  increases  are  predicted  to  occur  in the  case of 
professional workers at both degree and diploma (i.e. associate)  level and for 

Forecasting Iemale shares of employment by occupation in Ireland 

173 

those  engaged  in  personal  services  -  each  with  an  expected  increase  in 
excess of 50%. A significant expansion  in employment  is also anticipated for 
managers  and  sales  workers,  the  relevant  increases  being  47  and  38% 
respectively.  For  security  workers,  those 
in  transport  and 
communications  and  manual  workers  generally  (both  skilled  and  semi­
skilled) the increases are forecast to be much lower  (broadly  between  15 and 
20%) and smaller  still for clerical workers  at about  10%. In addition to the fall 
in the  numbers  in  agricultural  occupations,  decreases  in  employment  (of  a 
smaller  order  of  magnitude)  are forecast  to occur  for  unskilled  labourers  and 
proprietors  in service  activities. 

involved 

4.  Forecasts  of  female  employment 

The proportion of women in total employment  is forecast to increase from just 
under 40% in 2000 to 44.7% in the  year  2015  (see Table 4). This  represents 
a significant increase on the corresponding  share which  prevailed in the early 
1980s -  it was  less than  30% in 1981. 

Table 4.  Female  employment  shares  by  occupational 

group, 1981-2015  (%) 

Occupational  group 

2000  Τ  2005  Τ  2015 

Agriculture 

Managers 

Proprietors  in services 

Professionals 

Associate  professionals 

Clerical 

Skilled workers  (maintenance) 

Other skilled workers 

Production  operatives 

Transport and communications 

Sales workers 

Security workers 

Personal service 

Labourers 

Total 

7.0 

12.6 

25.1 

39.2 

65.3 

65.9 

0.3 

17.1 

24.9 

2.2 

40.3 

3.1 

66.5 

1.0 

9.4 

30.1 

33.7 

44.9 

67.6 

75.6 

3.9 

12.8 

31.7 

6.5 

53.8 

10.9 

76.3 

6.9 

28.9 

39.7 

9.8 

33.7 

35.8 

44.0 

65.9 

76.2 

4.9 

12.4 

33.9 

7.1 

56.6 

12.5 

75.5 

8.6 

41.4 

Source:  Sexton, Hughes and Finn, 2002. Table 3.5. 

10.9 

40.9 

40.7 

49.6 

65.2 

73.1 

7.1 

11.8 

35.7 

8.2 

62.5 

15.8 

75.1 

12.1 
44.7 J 

174 

Early identification of skill needs  in  Europe 

When  the  female  share  forecasts  are  translated  into  estimates  of  the 
actual  numbers  at  work  they  indicate  a  substantial  rise  in  total  female 
employment  over  the  forecast  period  -  from  630  000  in  2000  to  almost 
890 000 in 2015, an increase of  nearly  41%.  The (derived)  forecast for  male 
employment  also  involves  a  substantial  rise  (from  957  000  to  over 
1  100  000),  even  though  in  relative  terms  (at  15%)  this  is  significantly  less 
than that for women. 

The  data for  major  occupational  groups  are  best  interpreted  in  graphical 
terms as given in Figure 4, which shows predicted female shares at the level 
of  broad  occupational  groups  for  2000  and 2015. These  indicate that  in the 
year  2000  the  highest  proportions  applied  to  those  engaged  in  personal 
services  and  in  clerical  activities  -  some  75%  in  each  case.  These  are 
followed  by associate  professionals  (nearly  68%)  and sales workers  (54%). 
Agricultural  and manual workers generally tend to be positioned at the other 
end of the share spectrum with quite small female proportions -  15% or less. 
The  lowest  female  employment  share  (under  4%)  relates  to  the  manual 
skilled  maintenance  category. 

Observing the forecasts for 2015 the most significant increase in the female 
employment  share  is  predicted  to  occur  in  the  managerial  category.  The 
relevant  proportion  was just  over  30% in 2000  and  is expected  to  rise  by 11 
percentage  points  to  4 1%  by  2015.  This  feature  has  emerged  as  a 
longstanding  and  consistent  trend.  The  corresponding  proportion  among 
managers was 21 % in 1990, and as low as 13% in 1981. Significant increases 
in  the  female  share  over  the  forecast  period  are  also  indicated  for  sales 
workers and proprietors in services -  both of the order of 8 percentage points. 
The  results  also  indicate  fairly  substantial  increases  (about  5  percentage 
points)  for  professional  workers,  unskilled  labourers  and  those  involved  in 
security duties. 

The  graphical  presentation  shows  that  for  a number  of  numerically  large 
occupational  groups for which female  employment  shares  are already  quite 
high the  proportions  of  women  in  employment  are  anticipated  to  decrease 
somewhat  in the  period  up to  2015. This  is the  case  for  those  engaged  in 
personal services, clerical workers  and associate professionals, for which in 
each case the female shares exceeded 65% in 2000. These trends derive to 
a significant degree from the need to moderate the rates of change in female 
employment  shares  generally  in  order  to  maintain  consistency  with  the 
labour  force  estimates  for  women  which  form  an  intrinsic  part  of  the 
underlying  Medium-Term  Review  forecasts.  The  sectors  and  occupations 
associated with  high levels  of female  involvement  (such  as those  related to 
services)  are  expected  to  continue  to  show  substantial  employment 

Forecasting female shares of employment by occupation in Ireland | 175 

Figure 4. Female employment shares by occupation, 2000 and 2015 (%) 

J 
IA 

y 

_l 

Personal service 

Clerical 

Associate professionals 

Sales workers 

Professionals ¡ 

Proprietors in services ■ 

Production operatives ■ 

Managers m 

Other skilled workers ■ 

Security workers ■ 

Agriculture ■ 

Labourers 

Transport and communications 

Skilled workers (maintenance) 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Data shorted by shares 2000. 
Source: Sexton, Hughes and Finn, 2002, Figure 3.6. 

increases in the period up to 2015 ­ thus ensuring a significant rise in the 
actual number of women at work. 

However, during this period female labour force participation rates, 
though still rising, are expected to increase more slowly, and this, in turn, 
implies a need for moderation in female employment shares if serious 
inconsistencies between these two entities are to be avoided (e. g. zero 
unemployment or negative unemployment rates). (2) This, in effect, means 

(2) The Irish labour force participation rate in 2000 was 44.1%. In the context of the MTR forecasts this 

is anticipated to rise to 48.9% in 2005 and (more slowly) to 52.3% in 2015. 

176 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 5.  Distribution  of employment  across  broad  occupational 

categories, 1981-2015  (%) 

Agricultural 

Managers, professionals 

LO 
LU 

Clerical 

Skilled, unskilled manual 

Services and sales 

► 

LU 

< 

LU 

k 

LU 

< 

UJ 

u_ 

«β 

C/3 LU 
—I 

Total 

Agricultural 

Managers, professionals 

Clerical 

Skilled, unskilled manual 

Services and sales 

Total 

Agricultural 

Managers, professionals 

Clerical 

Skilled, unskilled manual 

Services and sales 

^gggggg^^ 

M 1981 

'' "N 

2000 

20.4 

19.8 

6.7 

41.1 

12.1 

11.5 

26.4 

5.3 

43.1 

13.7 

2005 

9.7 

28.4 

5.2 

42.7 

14.1 

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^β 

¡κι» 
7.5 

30.0 

5.6 

42.0 

14.9 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

3.8 

27.5 

31.6 

13.8 

23.4 

1.8 

32.9 

25.0 

11.4 

28.9 

1.5 

34.0 

23.4 

11.3 

29.7 

1.1 

37.8 

18.9 

10.6 

31.5 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

15.6 

22.0 

13.9 

33.2 

15.4 

7.7 

29.0 

13.1 

30.5 

19.8 

6.3 

30.7 

12.7 

29.7 

20.6 

4.6 

33.5 

11.6 

28.0 

22.3 

Total 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

Source: Sexton, Hughes and Finn, 2002, Table 3.6. 

that to a limited extent men will substitute for women in some of these 
employment growth areas. 

It is clear from the substantive changes indicated in the preceding 

analyses, that as well as variations in the female share of employment within 
occupations, the overall occupational structure of female employment is 
changing over time. It is best to consider this feature in terms of rather broad 
occupational categories viewed over a relatively long period. This is done in 
Table 5 which shows the distribution of employment for men and women over 
the period from 1981 to 2015 for five broadly defined occupational categories. 
Concentrating on the figures for total female employment, the most notable 
change is the expected decrease in the proportion of women clerical workers, 
down from 32% of total female employment in 1981 to less than 20% in 2015. 
The proportion associated with manual work (of all levels of skill) is also 
predicted to fall, even if not to the same degree as for clerical activities. 

Forecasting  female  shares  of  employment  by occupation  in  Ireland 

177 

A significant factor here relates to the ongoing job losses in industries  such 
as clothing  and textiles,  which  have  traditionally  involved  a  large  element  of 
semi-skilled  female  labour.  In  contrast,  the  shares  of  female  employment 
related  both to  managerial  and  professional  work  and to  sales  and  services 
occupations  are set  to  rise  substantially.  In the  case  of  the  former  category, 
the relevant  proportions  are 28% in  1981, about  one-third  in 2000 and  rising 
to just  under  38% in 2015. An  important  influence  underpinning  this  trend  is 
the rapidly increasing  share of women employed as managers, as  previously 
described. 

Figure 5.  Female employment  shares  across  broad  occupations, 

1981-2015  (%) 

1981 

2000 

2015 

- *- 

j 

ii II 

Skilled, unskilled manual  Servicesandsales 

40 

j
-

1—m 

Agricultural  Managers,professionals 

Clerical 

Source: Sexton, Hughes  and  Finn, 2002, Figure  3.7. 

References 

Anker,  R.  Gender  and  Jobs:  Sex  Segregation  of  Occupations  in  the  World. 

Geneva:  International  Labour  Office,  1998. 

Sexton,  J.J.;  Hughes,  G.;  Finn,  C.  Occupational  Employment  Forecasts 
2015.  Economic  and  Social  Research  Institute,  FÁS/ESRI  Manpower 
Forecasting  Studies  Report  No.  10, Dublin, 2002. 

 
Services  in  complex 
structures  -  trends  in the  way 
skills  are  developing 
in  low  skilled  work 

Beate  Zeller,  bfz  Vocational  Training  Research  Department  of  the  Bavarian 
Employers'  Associations, Nuremberg,  Germany 

The change in the world of work influences all kinds of employment  relationships 
and imposes new demands on employees and those looking for a job. The present 
article presents empirical non-quantitative  considerations and  assessments on the 
future  employment  prospects  of  the  working  population  without  professional 
training,  who  are  already  disadvantaged  on  the  labour  market.  According  to 
available forecasts,  in the next decade about  16% of employees will perform  low-
skilled  work'.  To  define  'skilled  work'  in  the  future  and  how  qualification 
requirements  for  this  group  will  develop,  the  bfz  Bildungforschung  (bfz 
Educational Research) has studied trends in the workplace, tapping into the know-
how of company experts, in the following  fields: 'low skilled' work  in the metal-
processing industry, aircraft service, and sales assistance in a baker's shop. 

The  current  changes 
in  the  working  world  are  affecting  all  types  of 
employment  relationships  and  imposing  new  demands  on  workers  with  jobs 
and  jobseekers.  There  is  no  doubt  that  people  without  a  formal  vocational 
qualification  are  at  present  at  a great  disadvantage  (1)  on  the  labour  market. 
But  what  does  the  future  hold? 

I  have  no  intention  of  presenting  quantitative  observations  and  estimates 
here. There  are  already  reliable  sources  for them, and they  indicate  that  even 

(')  The  term  'disadvantaged  group'  is  used  as  a  generic  term  in  the  survey:  A  disadvantage  can 
originate from economic,  educational  or social factors. When  'disadvantage'  is associated with the 
criterion  of  qualification,  the  groups  under  observation  are  those  without  completed  vocational 
training  or with  a training which  is no longer  utilisable  on the  labour  market. 

Services  in complex  structures  -  trends in the way 
skills  are  developing  in  low  skilled  work 

179 

in 10 years,  some  16% of  all  workers  will  probably  continue  to  perform  so-
called  'low  skilled  work'  in  businesses.  (2)  But what  will  'low  skilled  work'  (3) 
mean at that time? How will company  requirements relating to low skilled work 
develop? And what demands will then  be placed  on workers  in this field? 

In  our  survey  we  have  tried  to  identify  the  trends  on  the  spot  in  the 
enterprises  making  maximum  use  of  the  know-how  of  company  experts 
collaborating  with  us  on  this  survey.  Our  survey  is  divided  into  four  phases 
and follows a preliminary study.  Information on skill trends in selected  sectors 
is first  processed  in three field  phases  in two  regions.  In a fourth field  phase 
the results  of  the survey  of  selected target  groups  is processed with the  aim 
of incorporating the  results  in the design of  measures. 

In  terms  of  methodology,  the  aim  is  to  closely  link  the  survey  to  the 
situation  in the  company  as a basis for  data collection. Through  the  concept 
of  the  'cooperative  analysis  procedure',  company  experts  in  moderated 
control  groups  are  actively  involved  in  the  survey  process.  This  procedure 
gets much of its innovative force from its affinity to practice and the  know-how 
of the  experts  who, together  with  the  moderating  unit  in  the  control  groups, 
plan the  steps  of the  survey,  coordinate  the  implementation  of  the  empirical 
surveys in the enterprises  and  evaluate  the  results. 

I would  like to  invite you to  a small virtual tour  of some  enterprises.  Let us 
take a look  at ongoing  and  anticipated  changes  and the  impact  on the  skills 
demanded of the  workers. 

2.  Development  of  qualifications  i 

activities 

Activity  field  'low  skilled work'  in the  metalworking  sector 

Let us first  of  all visit  a  medium-sized  enterprise  in  the metalworking  sector. 
This  enterprise  is  highly  specialised  and  manufactures  a  large  number  of 
products  needed  for  measuring  and  surveying:  measuring  instruments,  as 
the expert  would  say.  We  know  some  of  these  instruments  from  our  daily 
life, e.g. the tape  measure  consisting  of  a metal tape which  is drawn  out  of 
a small case for  measuring  and then  rolls back automatically  when a button 
is pressed. 

(2)  The  IAB/Prognos  study  expects  that  in  2 0 10  1 6%  of  all jobs  (that  m e a ns  1/6  of  all  e m p l o y ed  people) 

will  still  consist  of  unskilled  activities;  ef.  Dostal  and  R e i n b e r g,  1999,  p.  3. 

(3)  The  term  'low  skilled  work/activities'  is  based  on  an  approach  used  by  P r o g n o s;  cf.  Weidig  et  a l ., 

1999. 

180 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

The  female  production  worker  whom  we  see  here  is,  like  90%  of  her 
colleagues,  a semi-skilled  or  unskilled worker.  For some time  she  has been 
working  with  11  colleagues  in  a  section  which  is  called  the  'Drawing-in 
Section'. 

She certainly  cannot  complain  about the monotony  of her job. In her work 
environment, the different jobs are not only very closely linked to one another, 
but the  workers  are  also  familiar  with  the  skills  required  at  each  workplace 
because they  regularly  rotate  between the different  workplaces.  In this way, 
the team is able to react flexibly in the case of sickness or leave and can take 
over  one  another's  jobs  or  help  one  another  out  if  the  workload  suddenly 
increases. The work process in the narrow sense of the term, let us call it the 
'operative process',  is  anything  but  'low  skilled  work'  here  because  of  the 
work  organisation;  on  the  contrary  it  is  a  very  highly  varied  and  versatile 
activity. The skills demanded  of this worker  are also very diverse. She must 
be  able  to  adjust  quickly  to  a  new  situation  and  she  has  to  master  a large 
number of  manual  activities  at different  workplaces. 

She  knows  that  this  rotation  and  the  flexible  standing-in  for  colleagues 
leads to  a  better  utilisation  of  capacity  for  the  company  because  it  reduces 
downtime,  and this  means that  she  is also  directly  involved  in the business 
process. 

Whichever  workplace  she  is  currently  working  at, the  requirements  in the 
'Drawing-in  Section'  have  undergone  a  substantial  change  in  the  last  few 
years.  No foreman or supervisor tells  her what to do. She has to deduce that 
herself  from the so-called distribution  cards. These  are documents  generated 
by the computer setting out what the customer has ordered and what therefore 
has to be done in the manufacturing process. On the basis of these distribution 
cards  the  group  decides  in  advance  the  sequence  in  which  the  customers' 
orders  will  be  carried  out.  This  has  to  be  coordinated  with  the  departments 
involved upstream, and care has to be taken that the necessary raw materials, 
e.g. metal parts, etc. are delivered in time and are ready at hand when they are 
needed. All the workers are involved in these planning activities; they all have 
to  have  a clear  picture  of the work  processes  and to  anticipate what  may be 
required, otherwise operations cannot proceed smoothly. 

As a machine operator, this worker has to take the pre-fabricated steel strips 
from the machine, sort them and check them for flaws. The quality ordered by 
the customer plays a crucial role and orders vary greatly. The measuring tapes 
are first cut roughly on a cut-machine  and then adjusted by hand to the exact 
length. The first step entails the programming of the cut-machine according to 
the instructions  on the distribution  card. The worker  must programme the cut-
machine correctly  if spoilage or rejections  and downtime are to be avoided. 

Services in complex structures - trends in the way 
skills are developing in low skilled work 

181 

The worker told us that even if the machine stops, she does not have to 

call a skilled worker straight away. She has learned to make an initial 
diagnosis of the problem. The machine failure can be due to a programming 
error, but it can also be due to the pre-fabricated product. The worker 
identifies the error, programmes the machine anew or removes the defective 
pre-fabricated parts. While doing this, she follows the instructions for the 
sorting of waste products and thus ensures an environmentally friendly 
disposal of waste. She then winds the steel strip to the point from which the 
machine can run automatically again. 

What we see here is certainly far removed from low skilled work in the 

sense of a simple support activity. But despite the diversity of the 
requirements, it is not skilled work either. The semi-skilled and unskilled 
workers cope with the requirements of a work environment which exceed the 
boundaries of a single workplace. 

Figure 1. Skill profile in the Drawing-in section 

Operative processes J Quality processes J 

Environmental management 
ƒ Industrial  safety systems 

■ flexible deployment in 
different workplaces 

^9 sure mastery of a large 

number of manual skills 

check of pre-fabricated 
steel tape products in line 
with customers' orders 

^n 

environmentally-friendly 
disposal 

Ensuring the  reliability 

of the technical  process J 

φ  undertake initial error 

diagnosis when machines 
break down 

correct small  programming 
errors 

Information processes ) 

Business  process 

j 

understand flexibility  and 
rotation as a step towards 
better  utilisation of 
capacity 

prevent  rejects of 
products and downtime of 
machines 

receive, process and pass 
on computer-controlled 
information 

^Λ plan work together with 

the group 

φ coordinate activities with 

upstream and 
downstream departments, 
have an understanding of 
the whole process system 

programme machines 
according to information 
from the work process 
system 

182 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

The actual operative processes which used to be characteristic  of support 
activities  have  now  become  more  differentiated  and  diverse.  In  addition, 
other processes  have become  more  important: 
•  information  must be processed  and passed on; 
•  the  technical  process  must  be  understood  and  its  smooth  operation 

ensured without  unnecessary  downtime; 

•  this  means  that  all  employees  have  to  be  aware  of  the  importance  in 
economic  terms  of  full  utilisation  of  resources  and  customer  satisfaction, 
that  is they  must  have a certain  understanding  of the business process; 
•  quality  must  be assured  within  the  process  itself;  it  is  not  delegated  as a 
separate function  to  an outside  unit  but  has to  be an  inherent  component 
in each working step; 

•  the same applies to industrial safety and environmental protection aspects. 

Activity field  'low skilled work' in servicing  of  aircraft 

We  first  took  a  look  at  a  production  company.  What  is  the  situation  in a 
modern services enterprise?  Let us now look around a major airport. 

One  sector  in  which  a  particularly  large  number  of  semi-skilled  and 
unskilled workers are employed is the ground service for aircraft.  In addition 
to passenger  check-in, which we all know from our experience as travellers, 
and  the  cargo  section,  we  also  have  the  so-called  servicing  of  aircraft. A 
worker  who  has  been  employed  in this  sector  for  many  years  tells  us that, 
basically,  this  implies  the  loading  and  unloading  of  baggage  in  and  from 
aircraft, the sorting and transport  of baggage and, of course, the cleaning of 
the  interior  of  the  planes.  In  this  context  many  crucial  changes  have 
occurred  in the work  environment  and thus also for the workers who do the 
low skilled work. 

Competition  between  the  airlines  is  making  it  increasingly  important  to 
shorten the ground time of an aircraft.  'A plane only  makes money when it is 
in the  air',  the worker  explains. Today,  modern technical  equipment  is used 
by  workers  everywhere  to  ensure  quick  and  safe  servicing.  The  f7eef of 
vehicles  with  the  baggage  carriers,  lifting  platforms,  the  self-propelled 
stairway  for  passengers,  the  electrically  operated  fuelling  vehicles,  the 
cleaning  vehicles  and  snow  ploughs  are  all  proof  of  this.  Earlier,  the  low 
skilled  work  was  performed  by  a  loader  who  had  to  have  a  good  physical 
constitution and the ability to work  in shifts. But it is now scarcely  possible to 
obtain such a job without a driving licence and driving practice. And only then 
do the various courses begin, courses on how to operate the vehicles and the 
mechanical equipment,  some of which  have to be repeated every year. 

Services  in complex  structures  -  trends  in the  way 
skills  are developing  in low  skilled work 

183 

The actual  handling  of baggage, the  loading  and  unloading  of the  aircraft, 
not only  has to  be  done  rapidly  but  certain  things  always  have to  be kept  in 
mind and done  properly.  Because  aircraft  have three  wheels, when they  are 
loaded  the  weight  has  to  be  distributed  evenly  so  that  the  aircraft  do  not 
become unstable. This applies even  more to the safe distribution  of the  loads 
for the flight. That is why there is a separate stowing plan for each aircraft and 
for each  flight  which  the  workers  have  to  read  and follow.  Only  by  adhering 
to this  plan  can  the  right  luggage  be found  at  the  right  place  and  unloaded 
during stop-overs.  Despite the time  pressure, the  luggage  has to  be  handled 
with care, particularly  in the case of special containers  in which, for example, 
live animals are sent  by air. 

The speed at which the work  has to be done should  not impair  quality  and 

above all  safety. 

As a reduction in ground time is only possible through an optimised loading 
system  and  an  intricate  interaction  of  all  workers  and  machines,  so 
communication  between  the  workers  plays  an  essential  role.  Radio 
equipment  is  used,  head-sets,  computers,  etc. Although  the  workers  are  of 
many nationalities, there is one firm rule: only German is spoken during work, 
otherwise  communication  might  not  be  as  smooth. 
the 
international 
increasingly 
language  of  aviation,  English,  is  playing  an 
important  role  even  in  low  skilled  work.  English  technical  terms  are  used  in 
almost all operations  and  activities. 

In  airports 

In addition, activities and requirements  are constantly  being  enlarged. The 
ground service  for  aircraft  has  long  assumed the  task  of  guiding  the  aircraft 
to its  parking  position,  during  which  communication  with  the  captain  of  the 
plane must be in  English via the head-set. Two other colleagues  stand  ready 
to place the chocks. After the engines  are shut down the aircraft  immediately 
receives  electrical  energy  from  an  electric  truck.  The  baggage  has  to  be 
unloaded, the  stairway  for the  passengers  has to  be  placed  in  position,  and 
all this has to be done at the same time. The workers discuss in the team who 
does what  and  when  with  the  responsible  Operator'  and  their  'ramp  agent', 
because  none  of  them  is  a  specialist  who  can  ignore  other  operations  and 
cannot  assume  other  functions.  All  this,  obviously,  cannot  be  achieved 
overnight.  A  person  who  starts  as  a  baggage  handler  is  trained  further, 
course by course  and  unit by  unit, and consolidates  his  knowledge  by  doing 
the  practical  work.  Reading  the  loading  plans,  knowledge  of  the  different 
aircraft  models, courses  on  how to operate  the diverse  technical  equipment, 
etc. -  all this  is part  of the job. 

For our contact  at the  airport,  as for  many  of  his colleagues, this was  one 
way  of  acquiring  a  vocational  qualification.  The  'certified  aircraft  servicing 

184 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

worker'  has  become  a  recognised  semi-skilled  occupation  with  a certificate 
from the Chamber  of Commerce  and Industry. 

This  shows the direction  in which the qualification  of  low skilled work can 
develop.  Here the concrete  requirements  for the job were combined to form 
a package of training modules leading to qualification. In this case, the action 
was directed to a clearly defined service sector: ground services at an airport. 
And  it  was  seen  here  that  a  modular  concept  has  the  advantage  of  being 
open: it is capable of absorbing new trends. That will be crucial for the future. 
In  order  to  remain  competitive,  the  airport  management  is  thinking  of 
offering  all  ground  services  as  an  integrated  package.  The  fuelling  will in 
future also be done by ground service staff. And as the goal is still to reduce 
ground  time  and  improvements  in  technical  equipment  no  longer  help  to 
achieve  that  goal,  time  saving  can  only  be  achieved  through  better 
coordination and interlinking  of the activities of the staff. This means that the 
ability for self-organisation in the group under the severe time constraints will 
have to be developed  even further. 

Figure 2.  Skill profile  in servicing  of aircraft 

Information  processes 

j 

Quality processes 

j 

| ϊ ΐ· 

interpret stowing plans tor 
different types of aircraft 

φ  careful  handling of 

baggage 

Ensuring the  reliability 
of the technical process 

J 

^n 

environmentally-friendly 
disposal 

i 

reliable operation of 
various  means of 
communication: radio 
equipment, head-sets, 
computer 

^ ft  dependable and precise 

communication within the 
group 

^M  understand  English 

technical 

Φ organise the sequence of 

work in the team 

^n 

^n 

distribute work within the 
team 

self-organisation  within 
the group under severe 
time constraints 

Operative  processes 

j 

Environmental  management 
/  Industrial  safety systems  J 

^^ 

safe distribution of load 

according to aircraft type 

Business  process 

J 

φ 

understand the importance 
of smooth coordination of 
workers in the group 

flexible deployment in all 
jobs: loading and 
unloading of aircraft, 
baggage sorting, cleaning 
interiors of aircraft 

competent  handling of all 
vehicles and mechanical 
equipment 

φ 

Φ 
Φ 

directing aircraft to their 
parking positions 

assume other ground 
service functions 

Services  in complex  structures -  trends  in the  way 
skills  are developing  in  low  skilled work 

185 

Activity field  'low skilled  work'  in  bakery 

After  looking  at  the  metalworking  sector  and  the  services  required  at  an 
airport, we  will  now turn to the changes  in a service  sector  with which we  all 
have frequent  contact:  the  bakery,  and  in  this  specific  case,  the  sale  of  its 
products.  More  than  half  of  the  employees,  and  in  particular  the  female 
employees,  in  the  company  we  will  examine,  have  no  formal  skill  training. 
The  company  is  expanding  and  has  some  90  branches  where  the  bakery 
products are  sold. 

What trends  may be observed here for the way skills are developing  in low 

skilled work? 

Today  it  is  no  longer  enough  just  to  sell  rolls,  cake  and  loaves  of  bread. 
The staff  has to  cater  to the  specific  wishes  of the  customers  and  to  have  a 
certain  amount  of  product  knowledge.  Good  knowledge  of  German  and 
friendly  service  to  customers  are  not  enough; employees  must  also  be  able 
to give people with allergies or health-conscious customers  information  about 
the ingredients  and substances  in the  products. 

Mental  arithmetic  is  not as  important today  as it  used to  be, but the  ability 
to  operate  the  computerised  cash  register  calls  for  specific  skills.  Every 
product  group  is  registered  separately,  which  is  the  basis  of  the  internal 
information system  used to  plan  production  levels  and branch  deliveries. 

One thing  is changing  above  all: the  small  bakers' shops  are  turning  into 
small  cafés  or  even  bistros.  Take-home  sales  are  playing  an  increasingly 
important  role in these  bakers' shops. This  means that the low skilled work in 
the shops  now tends  to  include  production  and service  activities.  A constant 
supply  of  oven-fresh  goods  has  to  be  ensured  by  putting  pre-baked  or  par-
baked products  into the  bakery  oven.  Small  snacks,  ranging  from  breakfast 
to lunch  snacks,  have  to  be  prepared  by  the  shop  employees.  This  means 
knowledge  of  the  manufacturing  process  and  the  ability  to  handle  the  raw 
material and the technical  equipment. 

What  is  more  important  is  self-organising  skills.  Even  though  every  shop 
has a manager,  all staff  must  ensure  the  smooth  sale  of  bakery  products,  a 
constant  supply  of  freshly-baked  products  and, at  the  same  time,  customer 
satisfaction  with  the  service  and  production  in the  café  section  of  the  shop. 
Many different objectives must be borne in mind and pursued  simultaneously. 
Quality control  in the  sale  of  bakery  products  means  that  each  employee 
has to check the goods  supplied  from  outside  as well as the  items  produced 
in the  shop  by  the  individual  employees.  Even  if  things  get  hectic,  hygiene 
cannot be neglected. 

186 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 3. Skill profile in bakery chain - branch sales 

Information processes j Quality processes 

■ w !■■■■!■ w m - W MI I ■■! I I II ^ -1 . ■ » — ■ — -■ - ■ —- ■ ■ —>—»I 

Ensuring the reliability 
of the technical process J 

φ 
φ 
φ 
φ 

φ 

φ 

have knowledge of the 
products 

friendly service to 
customers 

good knowledge of 
German 

advise the customers 

efficiently operate the 
computerised cash 
register 

understand the internal 
computer­controlled 
production and delivery 
system 

plan and organise 
different, simultaneous 
processes for supply of 
fresh products 

Φ 

check the finished 
products delivered 
from outside 

Φ 

check the products 
made in the shop 

Operative processes J 

Environmental management 
/ Industrial safety systems J 

Utk sell rolls, cake and 

^ ft ensure hygiene 

bread 

Production activities: 
make oven­fresh 
bakery products in the 
bakery oven 

prepare small snacks 

ffïl efficiently operate 

different types of 
technical equipment 

Business process 

Hfy understand the 
importance of 
orientation towards 
customers 

Summary and perspectives 

One modest conclusion to be drawn from our brief review of the changes in 
skill requirements for low skilled work is that the work organisation based on 
new technologies demands new skills even for low skilled work. We are 
witnessing the disappearance of niche jobs for support staff in the traditional 
sense who contribute to the business operation by performing unchanging 
low skilled activities. This is happening without the so­called low skilled work 
of semi­skilled and unskilled employees disappearing or becoming 
superfluous. These employees too are now confronted with new skill 
requirements; they are no longer just given instructions and told what to do. 
The possibility ­ and the point ­ of direct supervision and guidance no longer 
exist in complex work situations; instead, goals are set and all employees 
have to understand them and achieve them by cooperating as a team. 

Services  in complex  structures -  trends  in the  way 
skills  are developing  in low  skilled  work 

187 

Through  this  survey,  which  was  conducted  in  close  cooperation  with  the 
practitioners  in  the  company,  we  can  identify  the  trends  which  determine  the 
changes  in  the  sector  of  low  skilled  work.  On  the  basis  of  the  concrete 
activities  -  which  today  are  derived  less  from  the  individual  workplace  and 
more  from  the  overall  work  environment  -  different  interrelated  categories  of 
requirements  may  be  analysed  which  lead  to  a  configuration  of  extremely 
different  types  and  levels  of  skills:  in  addition  to  operational  activities  semi 
skilled  and  unskilled  workers  also  perform  tasks  which  are  needed  to  ensure 
the  reliability  of  the  technical  process  -  this  implies  maintenance  and  care  of 
including  simple  machine-setting  operations. 
machines  and  equipment 
These  workers  are  now  integrated  in the  information  process  of  the  company 
this  implies  involvement  in  information  processes  of  a  personnel  and 
- 
in  quality  processes  and  the 
technical  nature.  They  participate  actively 
business  process  and  assume  tasks  in  the  environmental  management  and 
industrial  safety  systems  of  the  company. 

Figure  4.  Cross-sectoral  skill  r e q u i r e m e n ts 

Operative processes 

j 

Ensuring the reliability 
of the technical process  J 

Quality processes 

flexible deployment in 
different workplaces 

efficient operation of 
various machines and 
technical equipment 

o  error diagnosis 

ISO standards 

•  maintenance and  care 
of machines and 
technical equipment 

• 

product knowledge 

error management 

Repairs 

Information processes 

j 

Business process 

j 

Environmental management  , 
/ Industrial safety systems  j 

cost management 

disposal 

improvement 
management 

optimisation of 
capacities 

rational use of energy 

hazard protection 

basic knowledge of EDP 
equipment and 
programmes 

customer orientation 

communication in 
teams 

communication in 
automated systems 

process knowledge 

188 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Although the activities described in our examples could not be more 

different, some common denominators for skill requirements may be 
identified in this cross­section of different sectors. The question which arises 
here is to what extent these common skill requirements can be used to derive 
skills and competences which lend themselves to cross­sectional application 
over different sectors. The description of such cross­sectoral skills for low 
skilled work would make it possible to design trans­sectoral skill training 
concepts for low skilled activities. From this set of training concepts, basic 
skilling packages could be compiled which would make the people concerned 
employable in a certain sector, e.g. the metalworking industry, technical 
services or commerce. If in future semi­skilled and unskilled people seeking 
their livelihoods on the labour market acquire these skills step by step, then 
they will continue to have a chance in companies. 

References 

Dostal, W.; Reinberg Α. Arbeitslandschaft 2010 ­ Teil 2: Ungebrochener 

Trend in die Wissensgesellschaft. IAB Kurzbericht 10/1999, also available 
in: http://www.iab.de/ftproot/kb1099.pdf. 

Weidig, I.; Hofer, P.; Wolff, H. Arbeitslandschaft 2010 nach Tätigkeiten und 
Tätigkeitsniveau. Beiträge zur Arbeitsmarkt­ und Berufsforschung, vol. 
227, Nuremberg, 1999. 

Early  recognition  of 
international  qualifications 
for  SMEs 

Peter  Wordelmann,  Federal  Institute  for  Vocational  Training (BIBB), Bonn, 
Germany 

"International qualifications', required to deal with increasing economic activities as 
a  consequence  of  economic  globalisation,  include  three  original  dimensions: 
foreign  language  skills,  intercultural  competence  and  excellent  professional 
competence.  In  addition,  there  are  two  other  important  aspects:  mental  and 
physical  robustness  as  a  condition  for  working  abroad,  and  international 
qualifications  as a corporate and social obligation. 

The dissemination  of information  and  communication  technologies will have a 
decisive  impact  on  future  trends  in  international  qualifications.  To an  increasing 
extent,  physical  mobility  can  be  replaced  by  virtual  mobility  and  international 
contacts  can  be  facilitated  from  the  workplace  at  home.  At  the  same  time 
international  qualifications  will  have to be  extended  to include the  dimension of 
'network  competence',  which  not  only  encompasses  the  ability  to  cope  with 
Internet and Intranet, i.e. to work with networks, but also to work in networks. This 
includes  indirect  communication  with  people  from  another  culture.  Network 
communication,  organisation,  creativity,  safety,  learning  and  training,  confidence 
building, and  virtual mobility in the network  are new requirements which  should 
also be incorporated  in international  qualifications. 

190 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

i.  The  consequences  of  the  European 

Single  Market 

The creation  of the  European  Single  Market  in  1992 also paved the way for 
the creation of a European training area comprising some 370 million people, 
an area which will expand considerably  in the future. This  European training 
area  across  international  borders  and  the  increasing  globalisation  of  the 
economy  are  lending  increasing  momentum  to  the  internationalisation  of 
training.  More  than  ever  before,  training  is  becoming  not  only  a  factor  of 
production,  but  also  a  cultural  asset  in  the  dichotomy  between  national 
identities and international forms of competition  and cooperation. (1) 

In the  absence  of  a  theory  on  global  economies  which  would  provide  a 
basis  for  an  appraisal  of  its  consequences,  in  an  initial  approach  to  this 
question  the  dimensions  of  relevance  to  training  behind  the  efforts  towards 
economic  integration  were  identified  (not  only  in  Europe).  These  are  the 
dimensions  of space, time and competition. 

Space, time and competition are in fact very closely correlated. In the field 
of training  policy, these  close  links  are  illustrated  e.g.  by the  debate  on the 
dual  system  within  the  European  area  or  the  relatively  late  age  at  which 
German  students  finally  become  available  for  the  labour  market  -  just  two 
examples, the  former  regarded  as  a competitive  advantage,  the  latter  as a 
disadvantage. 

The forwarding business is a prime example of the relevance of the space, 
time  and competition  approach  to  vocational  training  policy.  It  is a sector in 
which  the  conditions  of  space  and  competition  have  undergone  a 
considerable short-term transformation  in the wake of the Single Market, e.g. 
in  the  light  of  free  negotiation  of  tariffs  following  the  deregulation  of  road 
haulage tariffs in January 1994. (2) These transformations have also triggered 
enormous changes in the relevant occupational profile. Indeed, transport and 
traffic  remain  a  subject  for  practice-oriented  research  approaches  even 
today. (3) 

The  theoretical  approach  to  the  identification  of  qualifications  for  the 
process  of internationalisation  has been complemented  by empirical  studies 
(Busse,  Paul-Kohlhoff  and Wordelmann,  1997). This  led to the  identification 
of  the  following  possible  skill  elements,  from  which  the  concept  of 
international  qualifications  was subsequently derived. 

(1)  Cf. Wordelmann  (1995a)  on the following. 
(2)  Cf. ILSE, 1994. This publication refers to the need to 'gear vocational training towards the objective 

of  holistic  action-oriented  vocational  competence.' 

(3)  Cf. e.g.  Peppinghaus  (2001)  in the context  of  BIBB  project  4.2013. 

Early  recognition  ol  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

191 

Figure  1.  Elements  of the  development  of  international  qualifications 

New  competences: 
To cooperate/compete  with 
foreign  partners. 

Thinking  and acting  from a 
non-national  perspective. 

Seeing things  from  the 
perspective of  people  living 
in a different  culture 

Global culture 
areas 
and markets 

New  forms 
of  knowledge: 
International  law 

International  norms 
and standards, etc. 

Foreign cultures, 
mobility, etc. 

Time  J-

Competition  J 

The ability  to  adapt 
to  the  rapid  pace 
of  change 
in international  business 

2.  The  concept  of  'international  qualifications' 

Despite  the  fact  that  research  in  the  field  of  internationalisation  has  been 
under  way  for  a  relatively  long  period  of  time,  daily  practice  remains 
characterised by a confusion  of terms: 'Euro-skills' or 'Euro-qualifications',  'fit 
for  Europe',  'ready  to  meet  the  challenge  of  Europe', 
'intercultural 
communication  skills/competence',  and  more  recently  'skills  for  working 
abroad' and 'international  professional  skills'. 

However  the  concept  of  'international  qualifications',  developed  in  1997, 
has become  widely  accepted, at  least  in  specialised  circles, both  inside  and 
outside  Germany.  (4)  This  concept  includes  the  three  dimensions:  foreign 
language  skills,  intercultural  skills  and  outstanding  specialised  knowledge 
(Busse, Paul-Kohlhoff  and Wordelmann,  1997). Moreover,  the  importance of 
mental  and  physical  robustness  as  a condition for a transnational  placement 
has  been  identified.  And,  finally,  the  concept  of  international  qualifications 
also  comprises  a  mission  in the  context  of  both  industry  and  society, to  the 
extent that culturally  induced conflicts  both inside and outside the firm can be 
solved  by  means  of  learning. 

The  most  important  elements  are  illustrated  in the following  diagram. 

(4  Cf. e.g. Kristensen,  1998. 

192 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 2.  International qualifications -  content and  requirements 

Outstanding  specialised  knowledge  is  above  all  emphasised  from  the 
perspective of the enterprises for which specialised competence is clearly the 
initial  premise  for  international  activities  or  missions.  In  practice  the  other 
dimensions tend to be neglected in personnel planning. 

Foreign language skills (5) are required at different  levels. At  management 
level, where  direct  contact  with foreign  clients/partners  will  presumably  play 
an  increasing  role  in  the  future,  the  requirement  is  often  not  only  a  sound 
command of business  English, but also a knowledge of other languages. It is 
occasionally  pointed out that international  activities -  including  transnational 

(5)  The  call  for  foreign  language  skilling  in  vocational  training  goes  back  some  time  and  has  been 
frequently  reiterated, among  others  in the  Memorandum  on  Lifelong  Learning, published  following 
the  Lisbon  European summit. The five 'new' basic skills for all include foreign languages, alongside 
IT skills, technological  culture, entrepreneurship  and social skills. 

Early recognition of international qualifications for SMEs 

193 

missions - can be carried out with no or with only rudimentary knowledge of 
a foreign language. However as new technologies bring the 
internationalisation process to the workplaces of the specialised personnel 
trained within the dual system in Germany, at least an adequate command of 
English will be necessary at this level. 

The dimension of intercultural competence as the third aspect of. 

international qualifications ranges from 'getting by in a foreign country' and 
'cultural curiosity' to high negotiating skills in a transnational situation/foreign 
language. Although an important requirement in daily business routine, it is 
probably the most neglected in practice. 

All in all, it is important to note that all these dimensions belong to a 
comprehensive concept of skilling for international activities and that the 
requirements can by no means be reduced to foreign language skills alone. 
The concept itself probably remains largely valid for the majority of SMEs in 
the process of internationalisation. As an overall concept, it essentially applies 
to the following occupations (not to be regarded as an exhaustive list): 
• forwarding agent 
• travel agent 
• specialised catering/hotel employee 
• specialised employee in system catering 
• chef/cook 
• wholesale and foreign trade clerk 
• industrial clerk 
• banking clerk 
• specialist in event technology 
■ mechatronics engineer 
• digital and print media designer 
• service agent/air traffic 
• service agent/rail and road traffic. 

International qualifications are ideally acquired in the framework of 

transnational placements. Against this background, Kristensen in particular 
has examined the didactic dimension of transnational work placements 
(Kristensen, 2001). He points out that there is no theory specifically relating 
to the learning process in the context of transnational work placements. This 
remains an important task of vocational training research, as transnational 
placements alone will presumably no longer suffice for the substantiation of 
mobility projects in the future. The concrete learning potential of transnational 
placements, their 'European value added', must also been ascertained in 
order to counter the widely held prejudice that these placements are 
essentially a form of tourism. 

194 

Early identification ol skill needs  in Europe 

In terms  of training  policy,  it would  seem  to  make sense  if those  training 
occupations  in which foreign  language  learning  is  not compulsory  in view of 
considerations of demand were to introduce a basic intercultural qualification, 
including  a foreign  language  element,  but at a generally  lower  level. (6) This 
qualification would  have a dual objective: 
•  with  reference  to  foreign  language  skills  (English):  as  a  means  of 

preventing failure in contacts such as telephone calls, etc. 

•  with  reference  to  intercultural  skills:  to  learn  that  many  things  may  be 
different elsewhere and to facilitate the development of intercultural conflict 
management  potentials. 
An approach  of this  kind would  not  only  correspond  to the training  policy 
mission -  of primarily vocational schools  in this instance -  but also the long-
term  interests  of  industry  which  constantly  evokes  the  in-company  and 
societal  importance  of  intercultural  skills.  And  it  would  generate  a  certain 
degree of mobility capacity for individual employees -  an aspect which could 
gain  further  importance  in  the  future  in  the  light  of  trends  in  the  domestic 
labour  market. 

3.  On the  demand  for  international  qualifications 

Two different  approaches  have developed  in the context of research  into the 
quantitative  and  qualitative  demand  for  international  qualifications.  The 
Cologne  Institute  for  Business  Research  (IW)  conducts  company  surveys 
while  the  Federal  Institute  for  Vocational  Training  (BIBB)  along  with  the 
Fraunhofer  Institute  for  Industrial  Engineering  (FhlAO)  surveys  a  0.1% 
sample of the gainfully employed. Both approaches  have their drawbacks. (7) 
As the  IW  response  rate tends  to  be fairly  low,  its data cannot  be  regarded 
as  representative.  On  the  other  hand,  its  results  tend  to  be  prospective, 
pointing to the trends  and wishes of  in particular  multinationals. 

Although  the  results  of  the  BIBB/IAB  surveys  are  representative,  they 
merely  reflect  the  current  personal  judgement  of  the  gainfully  employed  in 
their workplace and only refer to the demand for foreign languages which has 
so far been  rated as an indicator  of the 'internationalism' of an enterprise. 

In the BIBB/IAB surveys, the gainfully employed are surveyed on the fields 
in which they require particular knowledge, i.e. not only basic knowledge, and 

(6)  Cf.  Busse,  Paul-Kohlhoff  and  Wordelmann  (1997),  in  particular  p.  240. 
(7)  Cf.  Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1991)  for  a  diagnosis  and  analysis  of  foreign 

language  requirements. 

Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

195 

on  the  corresponding  need  for  continuing  training.  The  latest  survey  dates 
back to  1998/99  (cf.  Dostal, Jansen  and  Parmentier,  eds., 2000).  In  1991/92 
a  survey  was  conducted  among  some  34  000  gainfully  employed  persons 
(Jansen  and  Stooss,  1993).  Partial  data from  a similar  survey  in  1985/86  (8) 
are also  available. 

The  results  of  the  representative  BIBB/IAB  surveys  among  the  gainfully 
employed  show  a  relatively  stable  picture  in  the  long  term.  Approximately 
every  tenth  person  surveyed  requires  foreign  languages  in  their  current 
jobs.  (9)  Table  1  shows  the  results  of  the  1998/99  surveys  broken  down 
according to vocational qualification  and field of training. 

Table  1.  In what  areas  do you  require  special  knowledge,  i.e.  not  only 

basic  knowledge,  in your  present  job? 

Foreign languages (data  in %)  li 

Total  dependent  employees 

Apprenticeship 

Apprenticeship  only 

Apprenticeship  + specialised  college  of  higher  education 

Apprenticeship  + specialised  college  of  higher  education  + university 

Area  of training  (last  apprenticeship  completed) 

Industry 

Crafts 

Commerce 

Public  service 

Other services 

Vocational  education qualifications 

Master  craftsman/technology,  etc. 

Specialised  college  of  higher  education 

University 

Source:  BIBB/IAB survey  1999. 

^Hj^H 

. 

(8)  Cf.  W o r d e l m a nn  (1991)  for  the  results  on  'foreign  languages'. 
(9)  T he  q u e s t i on  w as  w o r d ed  as  follows:  'Let  us  now  turn  to  the  k n o w l e d ge  y ou  require  in  your  present 
job.  Please  look  through  this  list  and  indicate  those  areas  in  w h i ch  you  require  special  k n o w l e d g e '. 
O ne  possible  response  w as  'Foreign  languages'. 

196 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

The  demand for continuing training in foreign  languages  has risen among 
the  gainfully  employed  in  recent  years.  In  1991/92,  it  stood  at  5%. Table 2 
shows  the  figures  for  1998/99,  broken  down  according  to  various  levels  of 
training. As  before, the  highest  demand  for  continuing  training  is  still  to  be 
observed  in  those  areas  showing  the  greatest  need  for  foreign  languages, 
whereby  it  is  always  a  question  of  additional  foreign  languages  in  this 
context. 

Table 2.  Please go through this list again. Does it include areas in 

which you should  improve, update or extend your  knowledge 
by means of continuing training?  If so, which areas? 

Foreign languages (data  in %) 

Total  dependent  employees 

Apprenticeship 

Apprenticeship  only 

Apprenticeship+ specialised college of  higher education 

Apprenticeship+  specialised college of  higher education 4 university 

Area of training (last apprenticeship  completed) 

Industry 

Crafts 

Commerce 

Public service 

Other services 

Vocational education qualifications 

Master craftsman/technology,  etc. 

Specialised college of  higher education 

University 

Source:  BIBB-IAB survey 1999. 

In interpreting  these  results, it should be borne  in mind that the  indicated 
need  for  foreign  languages  in  the  workplace  can  presumably  only  up  to a 
certain degree  be regarded  as an indicator of the  internationalisation  of skill 
requirements.  For  some  respondents,  use  of  English  is  no  doubt  taken  so 
much for granted that  it is no longer  regarded as out of the ordinary. On the 

Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

197 

other  hand,  as  workplace  automation  increases,  there  are  certainly  many 
elements  other 
to 
for 
internationalisation.  From  this  angle,  the  results  of  company  surveys 
presented  in the  following  show  higher  requirements  and  are  therefore  of  a 
more prospective  character. 

languages  pointing 

the  need 

foreign 

than 

As early  as  in  1992, a study  conducted  by the  IW showed that  70% of  the 
surveyed  enterprises  required  multilingual  members  of  staff  and  every  fourth 
respondent frequently  needed to use a foreign  language (plus 27.5% 'now and 
again'  and  only  30%  'never'). And  this  figure  was  almost  50%  in  companies 
with 100 to 500 employees  (Weiss, 1992). However the survey in question was 
a  written  company  survey  which  even  the  authors  do  not  regard  as 
representative  in view  of the  low  response  rate  (12.1%!,  a total of 232 cases). 
The  most  recent  survey  in this  field  conducted  by the  IW  on  the  basis  of 
the  concept  of  international  qualifications  involved  some  4 000  companies, 
surveyed on their international activities and the consequences for the skilling 
of  specialised  personnel  and  trainees.  (10)  The  results  of  this  survey  show 
e.g.  that  32.4%  of  specialised  personnel  regularly  use 
'international 
qualifications' in terms of 'job-related  foreign  language  skills', 21.6% in terms 
of  'international  specialised  knowledge'  and  15.9%  in  terms  of 
'other 
international  knowledge  and  qualifications'.  According  to  the  company 
ratings,  the  relevance  of  the  individual  dimensions  was  23.6%  for  'foreign 
language  skills',  23.3% for  'international  specialised  knowledge'  and  25.5% 
for 'intercultural knowledge/planning'. On balance, therefore, the  international 
dimension  of  skilling  is  regard  as  important  by  approx.  one  quarter  of  the 
surveyed  enterprises -  whereby  it is  interesting  to  note  that the  intercultural 
dimension  is  rated  as  the  most  important  element,  although  it  is  the  most 
difficult  to define  and is the  least firmly  rooted  in vocational training. 

4.  International  qualifications  and the  development 
of  information  and  communication  technologies 

The  combination  of  globalisation  and  the  rapid  development  of  information 
and  communication  technologies  triggered  a  further  development  of  the 
concept  of  international  qualifications  in the  late  1990s. Although  not  all  the 
developments  predicted  by  the  wave  of  internet  hype  occurred  -  and 
particularly  not as quickly  as predicted  (cf.  e.g. Pförtsch, 2000) -  information 

(,c)  Cf.  Lenske  and Werner,  2000.  However  the  response  rate was  only  19%. 

198 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

and communication technologies have undoubtedly  become a decisive factor 
in job  requirements  and lent new dynamism to the interaction  of space, time 
and competition. 

Figure  3.  Technologies  in the context of  internationalization 

Space 

' 

Information 
and 
communication 
technologies 

Time 

J 

In  the  form  of  hypotheses,  this  dynamism 

implies  the 

following 

consequences  for skills  and qualifications: 
•  Virtualisation  of  job  requirements  is  advancing  at  great  speed  and 

increasingly  impacting on SMEs. 

•  It tends to effect  all jobs. 
•  The  individual  no  longer  has  the  choice  whether  or  not  to  work  in  an 
international  context  or decide on the  modern tools s/he wishes to use. 

•  Physical  mobility  can be increasingly  substituted  by virtual  mobility. 
•  Those  equipped  with  the  necessary  qualifications  -  both  individually  and 
institutionally  -  have  a competitive  advantage  whereas  those  lacking the 
necessary  qualifications  encounter  problems  In the  management  of  their 
future. 
A principal reason for the growing process of internationalisation within the 
employment  system  is  the  continuing  advance  of  modern  information  and 
communication  technologies. This  process transcends  borders  in principle: it 
brings international requirements to domestic workplaces, a consequence not 
so much of the mobility of labour as the mobility of capital. This implies higher 
and  to  a  certain  extent  different  international  qualification  requirements 
(virtually  mobility  (Wordelmann, 2000a), digital culture)  in the future. 

In order to develop the concept of international qualifications a step further, 
the  term  'network  competences'  was  therefore  introduced  (Wordelmann, 
2001). This concept combines internationality, i.e. occupational activity can in 

Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

199 

principle  be  transnational,  and  the  use  of  ICT  media  which  can  also  in 
principle  be transnational. As this  integration  occurs, the  original  importance 
of the  intemationality  aspect diminishes  and is increasingly  taken for  granted 
in  the  occupational  context.  Network  competences  are  not  only  a  basic 
qualification  for  the  international  division  of  labour  but  also  for  the  future-
oriented design  of  in-company  organisation. 

The  strategic  key  qualification  'network  competences'  (11)  is  not  merely  a 
question  of the technical  ability to work with the  internet/intranet,  i.e. to  work 
with  networks.  It has in principle  no borders  and therefore  requires the  ability 
to  work  successfully  in  networks,  by  means  of  either  personal  or  'only' 
technical contact. The ability to decide which forms  of contact  are selected  is 
in itself part of this comprehensive competence. The general skilling  objective 
is 'to think  and  act  in  networks' and therefore  acquire  occupational  capacity 
of action  in the  process  of  'internationalisation  '. A  basic  precondition  is  the 
technical  ability  to  handle  networks.  Over  and  above this,  a whole  series  of 
vocational  skilling  elements  appear  in  a  different  or  a  new  light.  In  brief 
summary, these  are as follows  (Wordelmann, 2000b): 
•  Specialised  competence  in  networks: 

Consulting,  purchasing,  sales,  marketing,  maintenance,  etc.  in  networks 
require appropriate  skills  and  qualifications. 

•  Communication  in  networks: 

Real and virtual  networks  require  different  communicative  competences  -
not  least  in  view  of  their  asynchron ¡city.  Language  is  only  a  vehicle. 
Foreign language skills (in particular  English; other languages  may be very 
important  in certain  cases)  must  also be differentiated,  ranging  from  basic 
computer  and network  literacy to  higher-level  negotiating skills in the  case 
of  real contacts. 

•  Cooperation  and  competition  in  networks: 

The  dictate  of  networking  and  worldwide  cooperation  implies  a  new 
relationship  between  cooperation  and  competition.  Competitors  may 
quickly  become  cooperation  partners  and vice versa. 

•  Intercultural  competence  in  networks: 
transnational  contacts, 

In  virtual 
intercultural 
competence  is  not  the  same  as  in  real  contacts  but  it  is  nevertheless  not 
superfluous.  It is also  important  for the  national  and  regional  presentation 
and design  of  bids  in the global  network. 

importance  of 

the 

(")  The  term  'media  competence'  which  is  often  used  in  this  context  is  too  narrow  in  our  opinion; 
moreover  it  cannot  be  differentiated  from  the  ability  to  work  with  'public  media'.  Cf.  e.g.  Hüther, 
Schorb  and  Brehm-Klotz,  1997; Schiersmann,  Busse  and  Krause, 2002. 

200 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Confidence-building in networks: 
Those in a position to swiftly  and securely  build confidence in a networked 
economy  enjoy  a competitive  advantage. This applies  in a special way to 
cooperation  between persons from different  cultural  backgrounds. 
Organisation in networks: 
Networked and virtual forms of work call for new organisational forms and 
related  competences.  Although  team  and  project  forms  of  organisation 
may  generate  synergies,  they  may  also  imply  considerable  competitive 
disadvantages  in the case of failure. 
Mobility in networks: 
Workers must be able to handle the various instruments of virtual mobility, 
in  particular  with  reference  to the  relevant  tasks  and  objectives.  When is 
personal  contact  required,  when  will  a  phone  call,  an  e-mail  or  a 
videoconference  suffice? 
Creativity in networks: 
The  internet  evidently  requires  new  forms  not  only  of  design  and 
presentation, but also of creativity. 
Networked learning: 
Networks  offer  the  necessary  forum  to  link  up  work  and  learning  and 
therefore provide the conditions for  lifelong learning. The future  prospects 
of  both  individuals  and firms will  become  increasingly  dependent  on their 
ability to use network-based  learning applications and therefore implement 
dynamic skill  development. 
Network security: 
Network and open systems are incident-prone  and the impact of  incidents 
may  be  considerable.  For  this  reason,  new  criteria  and  standards  of 
particularly  technical,  but  also  organisational  security  are  applicable  in 
network  applications.  Network  security  must  be  systematically  and 
permanently  guaranteed for  all jobs  as a fundamental  element  of  working 
activity  in the  new economy. 
Networking risks: 
On the other  hand, it is necessary  to differentiate  between the  macro and 
micro  economic  risks  of  networking.  In  general,  a  greater  readiness  to 
assume  risks  seems  to  be  required  in  the  new  economy  where  speed 
competes with substantiated planning. Individuals too must be in a position 
to  reappraise their vocational  and personal  risks. 
Space and time in networks: 
The  worldwide  availability  of  space  and  globalised  time  require  thinking 
and action which  is in principle  characterised  by openness. 

Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

201 

•  Network  boundaries: 

Insofar  as  they  exist  all,  network  boundaries  are  fluid  because  networks 
are  dynamic.  But  they  also  manifest  themselves  as  the  boundaries  of 
power. 
The  individual  elements  cannot  be  imparted  in  isolation,  but  are  in 
themselves  intertwined  within  a  networked  relationship  (see  Figure  4).  For 
example,  intercultural  competence  and  confidence-building  represent  new 
requirements  resulting from  indirect  contact  with  people from  other  cultures. 
This  means  that  manifestations  of  ethnic  culture  may  in  the  future  be 
superimposed  by  a  new  'digital'  culture  which  may  -  perhaps  -  open  up 
opportunities  for  new forms  of transcultural  communication. 

Figure 4.  Network  competences  as a strategic  key competence  of 

internationalisation 

202 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

5.  International  qualifications  in  SMEs 

requirements  which  were  placed 

Since the level of specialised personnel with vocational training qualifications 
is  particularly  impacted  by  international  qualification  requirements  in  the 
workplace  in the  context  of  SMEs,  BIBB  project  1.2005  examined  relevant 
the  context  of 
deficits  and 
internationalisation  strategies  (Hering,  Pförtsch  and  Wordelmann,  2001).  In 
general  terms,  three  different  types  of  SME  were  identified  as  far  as  the 
planning  of internationalisation is concerned: 
•  marketing-oriented 
•  customer-oriented 
•  visionary  and  intuitive,  notably  the  specific  case  of  a  company  which 

in 

applies a training-based  internationalisation  strategy. 
The specific case in question is interesting in the present context, because 
form  the  point  of  view  of  training  policy  it  includes  the  ideal  approach  to an 
international training culture. 

'A company  included  in the  survey  has for  some time  been  implementing 
an  internationally  oriented  training  programme.  For  example,  all  company 
trainees  receive additional foreign language tuition and complete placements 
in  partner  companies  abroad  in  the  course  of  their  training.  The  reason 
behind  this  approach  was the vision  of the  entrepreneur  that  with  a view to 
the  Single  European  Market,  an  international  form  of training  would  provide 
his company  with  manpower  who would  be "fit for  Europe". Over the course 
of  time,  an  international  training  culture  has  therefore  developed,  which  is 
part  and  parcel  of  corporate  identity  and  serves  to  sustainably  support  the 
company's internationalisation strategy. However the company is also a good 
example  to  illustrate  that  a  change  of  paradigm  towards  "web  savvy"  is 
currently  taking  place.  For example,  new  ICT media  are  used  in the form of 
videoconferencing  by company trainees to  introduce themselves to  potential 
placement  firms  abroad.' (op. cit., p. 9) And the company  has  now begun to 
organise  long-term transnational  placements for  its trainers. 

In  contrast  to  the  aforementioned  types  of  internationalisation  planning, 
there are two strategic variants in the implementation and organisation of the 
process  which  are  very  much dependent  on company  size. Whereas  in the 
case  of  SMEs,  the  internationalisation  process  is  often  organised  and 
implemented  from  head  office,  large-scale  enterprises  generally  have  other 
means at their disposal. 

For  the  transnationally-oriented  process,  it  is  necessary  to  differentiate 

between personnel working  in the national and the transnational  context. 

Table 3 gives an overview  of the necessary skill potential. 

Early  recognition  of  international  qualifications  for  SMEs 

203 

Table 3.  Manpower  skills  within  different  internationalisation  processes 

Skill 

Head office 
orientation 

¡ 

Transnational orientation 

^ 

MS in the 
national context 

MS in the trans­
national context 

Strategic  competence 

Understanding and taking  decisions 

on complex  facts and  circumstances 

Market skills 

Development  skills 

Competitive  skills 

Specialised  competence 

Product/service  skills 

Implementing  skills 

(client  requirements  in technology) 

Marketing  skills 

ICT competence 

Network  competence 

Management  and  controlling  tools 

Methodological  competence 

Project  management 

Problem solving/decision-making  skills 

Cost  accounting/controlling 

Financial  management 

Social competence 

Presentation 

Communication 

Team work 

Leadership,  delegation  of tasks 

Intercultural  competence 

Religious  and social values 

Manners 

General  language  skills 

English 
2"d/3rd language 

National  language 

++ 

++ 

+ 
++ 

+ 

+ 

++ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

++ 

+ 

+ 

++ 

++ 

+ 

+4 

+ 

+ 

+ 

++ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

0 

0 

0 

0 

++ 

++ 

0 

0 

0 

,0 

+ 
+ 

+ 

0 

0 

0 

+ 

++ 

0 

0 

The skills were classified  as follows: 
++: very  high  requirements, +: high  requirements,  0: low  requirements.  MS = member  of  staff 

Source:  Hering, Pförtsch  and Wordelmann, 2001, p. 11. 

0 

0 
++ 

+ 

++ 

++ 

+ 

+ 

+ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

+ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

++ 

) 

204 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

6.  Early  recognition  and  implementation  of 

skill  requirements 

To a certain extent, the  results presented  above draw on earlier  studies and 
were  therefore  'recognised  early'  at  the  time.  Moreover,  the  more  recent 
research  results,  in  particular  those  on  'network  competences',  are  of  a 
prospective  character. 

Although  the  concept  of  'international  qualifications'  is  valid  for  most 
enterprises  in  the  medium  term,  it  is  not  the  customary  standard  in  either 
training practice or in formal  regulations  (Borch  and Wordelmann, 2001). 

The  deficit  in the  implementation  of  new  skill  requirements  is  particularly 
problematic,  as concrete  effects  of  innovative  approaches  in VET  require a 
substantial lead-time. It therefore seems necessary for those involved in early 
recognition 
the  actual 
implementation  of their findings. 

to  attach  greater 

importance 

research 

to 

Early recognition of international qualifications for SMEs 

205 

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Busse, G.; Paul­Kohlhoff, Α.; Wordelmann, P. Fremdsprachen und mehr. 

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Hüther, J.; Schorb, B.; Brehm­Klotz, C, eds. Grundbegriffe 

Medienpädagogik, Munich, 1997. 

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Europa. Informationen für die Beratungs­ und Vermittlungsdienste der 
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Deutschland. Federal Institute for Vocational Training (BIBB), Berlin/Bonn 
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Kristensen, S. Transnational mobility in the context of vocational education 
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Kristensen, S. Developing transnational placements as a didactic tool. 

Cedefop, Thessaloniki 2001. 

Lenske, W.; Werner, D. Globalisierung und internationale Berufskompetenz, 

Cologne 2000. 

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Peppinghaus,  B.  Berufsausbildung  im  europäischen  Verkehrssektor  -  eine 
„Probebohrung'.  Zur 
Internationalisierung  der  beruflichen  Bildung, 
Ergebnisse,  Veröffentlichungen und  Materialien  aus  dem  BIBB. January 
2002, p. 57 ff. 

Pförtsch,  W.  Mit  Strategie  ins  Internet.  Qualifizierung  als  Chance  für 

Unternehmen. Nuremberg 2000. 

Schiersmann,  O;  Busse,  J.;  Krause,  D.  Medienkopetenz  -  Kompetenz für 
neue  Medien.  Studie  und  Workshop. Materialien  des  Forum  Bildung  12, 
Bonn 2002. 

Weiß,  R.  Fremdsprachen  in  der  Wirtschaft:  Bedarf  und  Qualifizierung.  In 
Kramer,  W.;  Weiß,  R.,  eds.  Fremdsprachen  in  der  Wirtschaft. Cologne 
1992, pp.77 ff. 

Wordelmann, P. Fremdsprachen  in Ausbildung und Beruf. Gewerkschaftliche 

Bildungspolitik, 1991, Vol. 2. 

Wordelmann,  P.,  ed.  Internationale  Qualifikationen.  Inhalte,  Bedarf  und 
Vermittlung.  Federal  Institute  for  Vocational  Training  (BIBB),  Bielefeld 
1995a. 

Wordelmann,  P;  Matthes,  C.-Y.  Fachkräfte,  Fremdsprachen  und Mobilität. 

Federal  Institute for  Vocational Training  (BIBB), Bielefeld  1995b. 

Wordelmann, P. Qualification development of internationally  skilled workers -
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H., ed. Globalisierung. ITES-Jahrbuch,  Hamburg 2001, p.71ff. 

New  qualifications  in  SMEs  for 
societal  and  technological  change 
- skilling  of  IT  users 

Lothar Abicht,  Rainer  Werner, Institute of Structural  Policies  and  Economic 
Development  Halle-Leipzig  e. V.  (isw), Germany 

Particularly  in small  and  medium  sized  enterprises  (SMEs) there  are  qualification 
needs for applying information  and communication technologies (ICTs). Thus, the 
employment  sen'ices  of  Saxony-Anhalt-Thuringia  and  the  Ministry  of  Labour, 
Women,  Health  and  Welfare  of  Saxony-Anhalt  cooperated  with  the  Institute  of 
Structural  Policies  and  Economic  Development  (Institut  für  Strukturpolitik  und 
Wirtschaftsförderung  Halle-Leipzig  eV)  (isw)  to  establish  the  Telekompetenz 
initiative. Translating the initiative into action, seven educational service providers 
and  about  130  SMEs took  part  in  a  pilot  series  of  e-learning-based  continuing 
training projects  consisting of two five-month  courses. In the first  period with the 
respective  educational  sen'ice  provider,  unemployed  persons  from  various 
occupational  backgrounds  underwent  ICT training during which a learning project 
for  each  participant  was  defined.  The  learning  project  included  developing  and 
implementing a company-specific  ICT application during the second period of on-
the-job training. An Internet database linked participants to one another as well as 
to their teletutors and in-company advisers. Evaluation of the pilot series of projects 
shows that  increased  adjustment  of the qualification  process to the needs of SMEs 
leads  to  more  practical  results  for  this  kind  of  enterprise.  This  is  evident  from 
adjusting  qualifications  to  real  labour  market  conditions,  an  increase  in  orders, 
increased  use  of  ICT applications,  and  creating  new  jobs.  Half  the  participants 
found  new  gainful  employment  immediately  after  completing  the  continuing 
training  measure.  Most  of  them  would  not  have  found  jobs  without  the 
Telekompetenz pilot  projects.  The  blend  of  previous  vocational  and  new  ICT 
qualifications  was  the  decisive  factor  for  taking  on  participants.  The  initiative 
continues with a second series of projects. 

208 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

i. 

Identification  of  qualification  requirements  in 
sectors  with  forecasting  problems 

The  methods  normally  used for  the  early  identification  of  skill  requirements 
either follow the 'top-down' or 'bottom-up' approach. In the case of top-down 
models success depends on substantiated data at the macro-economic  level 
which is taken as the basis for calculations of the different scenarios. Bottom-
up  models,  on  the  other  hand,  rely  on  interviews  with  the  different  players 
involved  who  provide  the  data  for  the  subsequent  aggregation  operations. 
The second  method  in particular  is an effective  means  of  obtaining  detailed 
qualitative  information  on  the  occupations  and  skills  required  in  specific 
sectors,  provided  the  people  covered  by  the  surveys  are  in  a  position  to 
recognise  and describe  their  own  needs. These  conditions  are  mostly  to be 
found  in  sectors  with  conventional  occupational  profiles  and  players  who 
have  enough  competence  in  the  field  of  vocational  training.  The  situation 
becomes  more  difficult  when,  as  a  result  of  scientific  and  technological 
change, new skills which do not yet exist  in this form are needed and when, 
at  the  same  time,  the  issues  of  skilling  are  still  a  peripheral  problem  for 
practitioners.  In this  case,  interviews  in the  traditional  sense  of  the  term do 
not  produce  the  desired  results  because  the  respondents  themselves  have 
no clear  perception  of the situation. This  leads to a hazy scenario where the 
usual  forecasting  methods  cannot  clarify  the  situation  or  can  do  only 
inadequately. 

It was  precisely  this  hazy  situation  which  existed  at  the  beginning  of  the 
'Telekompetenz' (tele-competence)  project  presented  below. The aim of this 
project  was  to  give  unemployed  people  qualifications  which  would  enable 
them to develop  different  kinds of  information technology  (IT)  applications in 
small and medium-sized enterprises and to implement,  maintain and operate 
these applications.  In this  project  the  aim was  not  only to  conduct  analyses 
of  skill  requirements  but to  use these analyses  as tools which would  enable 
unemployed  people,  by  means  of  innovative  training  schemes,  to  acquire 
skills geared to the concrete  requirements  of the enterprises.  In this  project, 
the  hazy  situation  prevailing  at the  beginning  not only  required  identification 
of  the  skills  needed  in  the  enterprises,  but  the  majority  of  the  small  and 
medium-sized  enterprises  to  be  integrated  in  the  project  were  themselves 
uncertain  which  information  technology  (IT)  applications  would  actually  be 
needed in the foreseeable  future, i.e. what training would be required for the 
staff  responsible for the  maintenance  and operation of these applications. 

New qualifications in SMEs for societal and 
technological change -  skilling of IT users 

209 

Thus, the  aim  of  this  project  was  to detect  these  concealed  needs  and  to 
disclose  the  potential  opportunities  which  would  then  emerge  for  the 
enterprises. 

Here  it  should  not  be  forgotten  that  the  project  was  launched  in  the 
German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, a region in which enterprises with up 
to  50  employees  predominate  and  over  30%  (1)  of  people  employed  in  the 
manufacturing  sector  work  in  firms  with  a  maximum  of  19  employees.  The 
prevailing  situation  in these  enterprises  with  regard  to  the  application  of  IT 
may be summarised as follows: 
•  they  lag  behind  in  the  use  of  modern  IT  as  a  means  of  optimising  the 

company's  business  functions; 

•  deficits  and problems  in the identification  and description  of the need for  IT 

applications; 

•  difficulties  in financing  specific  (IT)  solutions; 
•  problems  of acceptance  by  management  and employees. 

The enterprises  have a latent need for complex  IT applications  but if these 
needs  are  to  be  identified  and  gradually  satisfied,  the  overall  conditions 
conducive to this process  have to be created. 

its  specific 

The  situation  required  for  the  identification  and  implementation  of  IT 
applications  is  closely  related  with  the  staff  and  skill  requirements  of  the 
enterprise.  If the  employees  do  not possess the basic skills  in this  area, very 
hazy  notions  exist  of  which  IT  applications  are  most  suited  to  promote  the 
development  of  the  enterprise  under 
internal  conditions. 
Furthermore, the small size of the enterprises  makes it difficult to employ  full-
time  staff  for  IT  applications,  firstly  for  financial  reasons  and  secondly, 
because  there  will  not  be  enough  tasks  for  a  full-time  post.  There  are  also 
considerable  differences  in the  contents  of the various  IT applications  which 
will probably  be  needed  (latent  need),  so  that  a very  heterogeneous  picture 
of  the  probable  skills  emerges  when  these  needs  are  translated  into  skill 
requirements.  While  the  basic  skills  in  question  present  relatively  uniform 
characteristics,  the  specialised  knowledge  required  is  a  part  of  this  uniform 
picture. The same  applies to the  necessity  of showing  specialised staff  for  IT 
applications  in  small  and  medium  sized  enterprises  (SMEs)  how  to  interlink 
IT knowledge  and  knowledge  of work  processes  in SMEs. 

Given  this  general  situation,  a  hypothetical  approach  was  developed  for 
the  'Telekompetenz'  project where the following assumptions were  combined 
to create  the  necessary  conditions. 

(')  Source:  Bundesanstalt  für Arbeit:  „Zahl  der  Betriebe  und  ihrer  Beschäftigten"  (as of  30.06.00). 

210 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

•  Unemployed people with basic knowledge can assist enterprises to identify 

their  (latent)  need for  IT applications. 

•  Within  the  framework  of  skilling  projects  these  unemployed  people  can 
develop  specific  IT  applications  in  this  SME  after  its  goals  have  been 
approximately  described  at the beginning of the process. 

•  The enterprises or the decision-makers  in the firm will accept the relevance 
of these  IT applications  for the optimisation  of  in-company  operations and 
will,  through  practical  demonstration, show that they  have  overcome their 
reluctance to  introduce the  new technologies. 

•  The  enterprises  will  run  IT  applications  on  a  permanent  basis  and  thus 
create  new  jobs  for  the  further  development  and  operation  of  these 
applications. 

•  Unemployed people will be sufficiently trained for this task in the enterprise 
through  a combination  of traditional  learning  and  work-process-integrated 
learning. 

•  In  the  course  of  this  work-process-integrated  learning  the  unemployed 
people will demonstrate their suitability for employment in this firm and thus 
get  a  chance  to  be  recruited  for  the  new  jobs  created  through  their 
activities. 

•  Unemployed  people will be recruited to fill the  new jobs  and will  now have 
the  requisite  skills  for  a job which  did  not  exist  at the  start  of the  process 
and could  only  be defined  in very  vague  terms. Through  the  competence 
acquired  in the  course  of  their  training  to  undertake  and consolidate  self-
directed  learning  and  apply  it  at  the  workplace,  the  former  unemployed 
people  will  ensure  the  ongoing  relevance  of  the  newly  created  IT 
applications  and thus secure their jobs. 

2.  The  goals  of  the  Telekompetenz  project 

The following goals were defined for the  networked  Telekompetenz project: 
•  Provide unemployed people with  IT-related qualifications as an opportunity 

for  re-entry  into the profession; 

•  make  available  specially  trained  staff  for  SMEs  (the  predominant  type of 
enterprise  in  Saxony-Anhalt)  who  are  able  to  design  and  operate  IT 
applications  for companies  in cooperation with specialists; 

•  enable work-process-integrated  learning  in order to adapt vocational skills 

more closely to the actual  requirements  of the workplace; 

•  implement modern IT solutions in SMEs as a form of innovation transfer for 

the small and medium-sized  enterprises of  Saxony-Anhalt; 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change -  skilling  of  IT users 

211 

•  train and inform  in-company  instructors  and other  company  employees  so 
that  they  are  aware  of  modern  IC  solutions  and  the  possibilities  of 
implementing  them  in the  company  as  a  means  of  transferring  up-to-date 
IT-related knowledge to SMEs  in the classical sectors who, by using  IT and 
the new  media, wish to  increase their  competitiveness; 

•  test  possibilities  of  creating  new  high-value  jobs  in  the  participating 
companies  who,  at  the  same  time,  visibly  increase  their  competitiveness 
through  the  use  of  e-commerce  solutions.  In  this  context,  the  project  not 
only  had the aim  of generating  new  IT-related jobs, but  also stabilising  the 
other jobs  in the company  and thus contributing to the creation of  classical 
jobs through company  expansion; 

•  enhance  the  importance  of  the  educational  establishments  as  skill 
providers  in  the  context  of  IT-supported  continuing  vocational  training  in 
Saxony-Anhalt; 

•  create  a  state-wide  network  of  educational  establishments,  experts  and 
other  supporting  institutions  -  generate  synergy  effects  for  the  promotion 
of this  new  learning. 

3.  Project  design 

3 i.  The  basic structure of the  Telekompetenz  model  project 
The  Telekompetenz  project  had  a  duration  of  12  months,  oriented  to  the 
jobseekers 
sequence  of  the  seven  networked  training  schemes 
conducted  within  the  framework  of  the  overall  project.  This  aim  of  this 
measure  was  to  formulate  objectives  and  contents  which, on the  one  hand, 
created various  possibilities  of  using  IT applications  and which, on the  other, 
were geared  to  local  skill  requirements  and  human  resource  potential. 

for 

Seven educational  establishments  and six  labour offices  in  Saxony-Anhalt 
participated  in  the  project.  The  training  measures  were  characterised  by  a 
new  and  innovative  structure  which  was  based  on  the  principles  of  'work-
process-integrated  learning'  (2)  or  'work-process-oriented  continuing  training' 
(cf.  Rohs,  2002).  A  decisive  component  of  this  structure  was  the  equally 
important  share  of  classroom  phases  in  the  educational  establishment  and 
the in-company  learning  phases  in the  partner  firms  from  the  SME  sector  in 
the course of which the  participants  worked on one  or more specific  learning 
projects on the spot. 

(2)  Cf.  S.n.  Perspektiven...,  2 0 0 1. 

212 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure  1.  Basic structure of the training  measures  in the  project 

PHASE  1 

Classroom  instruction 

5 months/6  months 

PHASE  2 

In-company  learning  phase 

5  months /  6 months 

Acquisition of basic knowledge 

Acquisition of spesialised 

knowledge  in learning groups 

WL  Execution of in-company  learning 
projects with tele-tutoring support 

In  this  form  of  work-process-integrated 

learning  another  decisive 
component  proved  to  be  indispensable:  tele-tutoring support  (ef.  Freikamp, 
2002)  for the practical, project-related  learning  process  in the firms.  It was a 
novelty  as, at  present  in the whole  of  Germany, tele-tutoring  is used almost 
exclusively  to  support  and guide  learners  only  in the  IT-assisted  systematic 
acquisition of theoretical knowledge  (cf. Hohenstein and Wilbers, 2002). But, 
IT-assisted  support  of  the  learner  in  the  solution  of  practical  problems  in a 
company environment which, as a rule, places more diverse and much more 
complex  demands  on the tutor, is hardly practised. 

Another  important  feature of the project was the  mutual networking of the 
participants. In order to facilitate, coordinate and provide scientific backing for 
the  networked  implementation  of  the  whole  package  of  the  innovative 
continuing  training  measures  mentioned  here,  the  Telekompetenz Project 
Office, funded by the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt and the European Union, 
was  set  up.  It  assists  the  regional  educational  establishments  in  the 
preparation, implementation  and evaluation of the training  measures. 

3.1.1.  Role and design of classroom teaching 
The  implementation  of the  'work-process-integrated learning'  (cf.  Bergleiter, 
2002)  principle  not  only  implies  that  new  and  - 
in  comparison  to  the 
conventional  continuing  vocational  training  measures  -  much  higher 
demands  are  placed  on  the  didactic  and  organisational  set-up  in  the  in-
company  learning  phase.  It  also  necessitates  an  integral  approach  to  the 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for societal  and 
technological  change  -  skilling ol  IT  users 

213 

overall design  of the  entire continuing  training  measure,  an approach which, 
in advance, takes due account of both the general  requirements and  inherent 
contents  of  the  training  objective  and  the  relevant  contents  and  specific 
requirements  of the  in-company  learning  phase. 

Given  the  high  degree  of  complexity  of  the  demands  placed  on  the 
participants  of the  scheme,  much  attention  had to  be paid to the selection  of 
suitable people (cf. Abicht  and Bärwald, 2002).  It was to  be kept  in mind that 
the motivation of the  participants  (cf.  Zimbardo,  1992, p. 374 ft)  is crucial for 
the success  of the  entire  measure  including  the  tele-tutoring  provided  in the 
in-company  learning  phase.  It was important to ensure that  participants  were 
prepared to  adapt themselves  flexibly  to  new  elements. This  also  included  a 
high  level  of  readiness  to  develop  autonomous  activities  to  close  gaps  in 
knowledge.  It was  necessary  for the  participants  to  be aware  of the fact  that 
they could eventually create their own jobs in the companies  or institutions  in 
which  they  attended  the  in-company  learning  phase  as  part  of  the  skilling 
measure.  This  meant  that  the  teachers  and  tele-tutors/project  managers 
required a great deal of didactic competence for the selection, motivation  and 
preparation  of  participants  for  the  in-company  learning  phase;  they  also 
needed the  ability  to  effectively  assess the  individual  starting  conditions  and 
the expectations  of  each  participant. 

When  constituting  the  groups  of  participants  for  the  training  measures,  it 
was  seen  as  a  rule  that,  even  if  the  starting  conditions  in  terms  of  the 
learners'  formal  qualifications  were  relatively  uniform,  the  individual  bias  in 
terms  of  different  competences,  interests  and  aptitudes  was  highly  varied. 
This applied for instance to different  areas of knowledge  and experience such 
as  commercial,  business  and  economic  knowledge,  and  engineering  and 
management  know-how.  But  it  also  applied  to  different  aptitudes  e.g.  with 
regard to technical/organisational  and creative tasks. It was necessary to turn 
this into  a productive  element  for  the effective  design  of the  measure  and  in 
particular  for  the  contents  of  the  learning  projects.  This  meant  that  the 
teachers  and  tele-tutors  had  to  consciously  set  up  different  interest  groups 
from the total aggregate  of participants, because  it would  be easier for these 
groups  to  identify  themselves  with  the  differing  specific  requirements  of  the 
individual  project  tasks  and  it  would  -  keeping  the  requirements  of  the  in-
company  learning  phase  in  mind  -  facilitate  the  transmission  of  specific 
group-oriented  and task-oriented  knowledge. 

The  classroom  phase  of  instruction,  which  was  undertaken  in  the 
educational  establishment,  had to  be  designed  in such  a way  that  a  certain 
degree of differentiation of knowledge acquisition was possible depending on 
the requirements to be expected from the learning projects  in the  companies. 

214 

Early  identification ol skill needs  in Europe 

later  - 

Thus, the  training  process  had to  be  designed  as  a  homogeneous  process 
for  the  transmission  of  basic  knowledge,  project-related  knowledge  and 
personalised  special  knowledge. Above  all, the  participants'  starting  level  -
especially  in the  area  of  EDP proficiency  -  had to  be equalised  taking their 
existing  knowledge  and  skills  into  account.  Together  with  the  acquisition of 
basic  knowledge  as  laid  down  in  the  training  objective,  it  was  intended  -
to  impart  differentiated  project-related  knowledge 
somewhat 
depending  on the  needs  of  the  learning  group. This  was  an  important  pre 
requisite so that the participants could, through the training measure, acquire 
the technical  and  methodological  competence to  execute the  learning tasks 
in  the  enterprises  and  to  continuously  acquire  further  proficiency  on  their 
own.  Thus,  in  addition  to  the  trans-sectoral  contents  imparted  to  all 
participants, specialised  knowledge  had to be introduced  step by step which 
could  then  be  used  as  project-related  input  in  contacts  with  the  potential 
training firms. This  meant that  'project  groups' had to be formed. Their  main 
function was to enable the participants to acquire the skills  basically  needed 
for  action-oriented  vocational  competence  in  addition  to  technical  and 
methodological competence. The specific features of the different sections of 
the  classroom  phase  of  the  training  are  presented  in  the  phase  model  for 
contents/methods  design of the training  measure. 

Figure 2.  Phase model 

Model for the contents/methods design of knowledge transmission 
in  training  measures  with  tele-tutoring  back-up  in  the company 
learning phase 

participants 

participants 
in project groups 

all participants 

e.g.: web design 
concept  development 
networks 

Source: Abicht and Schönfeld, 2000. 

New qualifications  in SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change -  skilling of  IT  users 

215 

In the different  sections  of the classroom  phase the teachers  not only  had 
to cope  with  new  requirements  relating  to the flexibility  and  differentiation  of 
knowledge  transmission,  but  also  had  to  deal  with  specific  requirements 
which  emerged  for  the  work  of  the  project  manager  (who,  as  a  rule,  also 
assumed the tele-tutoring  of the  learners  later). 

3.1.2.  Role and  design  of the in-company  learning  phase 
The  decisive  requirements  for  the  design  of the  in-company  learning  phase 
in  the  project  arose  from  the  decision  to  design  work-process-integrated 
learning as a process for the execution  of  an in-company  learning  project.  In 
doing  this,  the  designers  drew  on  the  experience  and  theoretical  findings 
gained  in  the  application  of  this  project  method  as  formulated  by,  among 
others,  Kerres  (1998). According  to  him  a  learning  project  is  '...  a  practical 
project,  as close  as  possible  to  life,  in which  the  learner  to  a  large  extent  is 
involved  in the  setting of  objectives, the  implementation  and the  assessment 
or evaluation.  In other  words,  he does  not train or exercise  just  one  isolated 
manual  skill  but  also  cognitive  (e.g.  planning)  skills,  social/communicative 
competence  (e.g.  coordinating  the  segmented  tasks  in  the  group)  and 
affective  competence  (e.g.  coping  with  setbacks).  It  is  the  holism  of  the 
manufacturing  process,  e.g.  making  a  product,  and  the  self-organisation  or 
cooperative  coordination  of  the  learning  and  working  process  which  is 
important  for  the  success  of  learning  progress.  However,  the  learning 
environment  must  also  support  these  self-organised  or  group-organised 
learning  activities.'  (Kerres,  1998, p. 73 ff.) 

The  in-company  learning projects  implemented  in  Telekompetenz take  the 
knowledge conveyed  in the  classroom  phases  and  use  it for  a practical  task 
set in the company  (knowledge transfer). While executing the learning project 
the  participant  is  forced  to  make  practical  use  of  his  knowledge  in  the 
company  context  and  to  fill  the  knowledge  gaps  which  emerge  during  this 
process  either  by  himself  or  with  the  help  of  his  tele-tutor.  In  this  case  the 
learning  projects  are  not  a  simulation  of  possible  practical  problems  and 
processes, but genuine  events occurring in the daily work of the company; by 
doing  this,  the  learning  aspect  does  not  lose  its  significance  and  the 
participant  is  not at a loss  because  of  lack  of experience  or  knowledge. 

The  desired  quality  of  the  in-company  learning  projects  could  only  be 
achieved  if  they  had  already  been  prepared  in  detail  by  the  project 
manager/tele-tutor  during  the  classroom  learning  phase  in  the  educational 
establishment. This preparation  of  learning  projects which  is an inherent  part 
of the first  phase  of the training  measure  includes: 

216 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

•  early search for suitable companies and contractual agreements with them; 
•  definition  of the learning  projects with the components: 

-  objective from the angle of the company; 
-  learning  objectives; 
-  in-company  instructors; 
-  time plan for execution; 
-  presentation of  results; and 
-  monitoring  of results; 

•  identification of specialised knowledge which has to be imparted during the 

classroom  phase to small groups; 
•  imparting this specialised  knowledge; 
•  early  establishment  of contacts  between the participant  and the company, 
and  precise  definition  of  the  learning  project  with  the  cooperation  of  the 
participant. 
Already  in  the  preparatory  phase  of  in-company  project  work  but  in 
particular  in the participants' learning  phase in the work process, the staff of 
the  company  was  involved  in the  learning  process. This  primarily  applies to 
company instructors. The educational institutions and the tele-tutors  included 
them  from  the  beginning  in  the  knowledge  transfer  process  and  they  were 
given  targeted  information  on the  concrete  possibilities  and  limitations  of IT 
applications  in the company.  In particular, the  IT specialist  in the educational 
establishments  helped  them  to  assess  what  concrete  benefits  could  be 
attained  for  the  company  through  the  targeted  use  of  information  and 
communication  technologies. 

3.2  Tele-tutoring  support  and  back-up 
The individual support and back-up given to the participants during the work-
process-integrated  learning  phase  by a  tele-tutor (Freikamp, 2001)  played a 
key role in the  Telekompetenz project. 

The  tele-tutor  had  the  job  of  guiding  and  monitoring  the  personalised 
learning  process  by  combining  computer  technology  and  telephony.  Thus, 
the tele-tutoring of the participants implied that the training firms  had to have 
the required technical facilities  (ISDN connection, etc.). 

The  tele-tutoring  was  also  to  ensure  that  all  participants  would  be 
integrated  equally  in  the  IT-assisted  communication  process  and  would 
assimilate  the  necessary  working  techniques. After  all, these  are a decisive 
feature  of the  'added  benefit' which job-seekers  and companies  obtain from 
training with tele-tutoring  as compared to the classical forms of training. 

New qualifications in SMEs for societal and 
technological change ­ skilling of IT users 

217 

Figure 3. Central position of the Tele-tutor 

Support given to the participants in the in­company ¡earning phase 

Participants 
and in­company 
instructors 

'I 

■III* Dk 

Educational 
establishment 

Networking the project partners with the inclusion of 
external experts 

Given the innovative nature of the Telekompetenz project, the inter­
connection of all project partners in a learning­promoting network was 
indispensable. Only on this basis was it possible to create the essential pre­
conditions which would enable all partners to fulfil all the requirements for the 
implementation of the skilling measure and make them skilled practitioners in 
the field of IT­assisted learning. 

This requirement was the outcome of experience gained previously in 
other experiments with tele­tutoring as part of the work­process­integrated 
learning method. In the case of tele­tutoring for theoretical learning 
processes one could assume that the tele­tutor not only had the specific 
methodological competence but also the full range of technical competence 
for all the questions to be clarified, but in the case of in­company projects as 
a tool for work­process­integrated learning, this was no longer possible. 
Given the complexity and the wide range of questions requiring problem­
solving and the new problems arising in the practical process, more 
competent partners were needed whom the tele­tutor could approach for 
assistance and who would help him to give satisfactory information to the 
learners within a reasonable period of time. These partners were generally 

218 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

the specialised teachers  in the educational establishment  but also experts in 
specific technical fields who could be contracted to provide assistance when 
it was required. 

4.  The  implementation  of  the  Telekompetenz 

project 

The following factors facilitated the successful  implementation  of  the project 
and the creation of  new jobs through the course  participants  themselves: 
•  The  in-company  learning  phase  of  the  project  made  it  possible  for  the 
companies to at long last fulfil a wish they  had had for many years but had 
not been able to undertake for  lack of time  and competence -  namely, the 
introduction  of  certain  IT  applications  (web  presence,  shop,  Intranet 
solution,  etc.).  In this  connection  the  lack  of  technical  know-how  was  not 
the determining  factor  as  an  outside  firm  could  have  easily  supplied this. 
What  was  crucial  was  the  possibility  of  establishing  what  is  possible  and 
useful for this firm, what  inputs would  be required for such a solution, how 
the  specific  features  of  company  business  or  production  could  be  taken 
into  account,  what  resources  would  be  required  to  maintain  the  IT 
application, etc. 

•  The  cooperation  between  the  companies,  participants  and  tele-tutors 
triggered  the  impulse  to  finally  tackle  the  long-overdue  necessity  of 
updating  the  organisation  of  the  production  of  goods  and  services  in 
association with the introduction  of  IT applications. 

•  The  available  engineering,  commercial  and  administrative  skills  and  the 
new  knowledge  acquired  by  the  participants  in  the  course,  enabled  the 
expansion  and  intensification  of  marketing  activities,  the  improvement  of 
customer services and/or an extension of the goods and services produced 
by the company. 

•  The in-company  learning phase enabled the firm to undertake an intensive 
examination  of  the  suitability  of  the  participant  for  work  in  this  specific 
company and to test how far he was able to open up and manage new and 
useful fields of activity for the company. 
Finally,  the  implementation  of  preceding  measures  such  as  those  to 
establish  suitability  (cf.  Dubiel  and  Schubert,  2002)  was  of  considerable 
importance  for  the  success  of  the  skilling  measure.  This  confirmed  that  the 
teaching  of  core  competences  including  social  competence  is  becoming 
increasingly important for subsequent higher-grade continuing training and skill 
training, especially against the background of a small-scale industrial structure. 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change -  skilling  of  IT  users 

219 

4.1.  Didactics and  organisation  of the  courses 

Vocational qualifications  of the  participants 
As  already  mentioned,  the  previous  qualifications  possessed  by  the 
participants  were  a decisive  factor  for  the  success  of  the  courses  and  were 
the basic pre-requisite for the participant's  chance to re-enter  the job  market. 
The fact that, even with  relatively  uniform pre-conditions  in terms of  formal 
qualifications,  highly  diverse  combinations  of  different  skills,  interests  and 
aptitudes  still  existed,  confronted  the  teachers  with  a  dual  challenge.  They 
had  to  take  care  that  the  existing  differences  did  not  develop  into  major 
obstacles for the progress  of learning. This meant that the starting  conditions 
for the participants  had to be equalised through forerunning  measures  and at 
the start  of the training  course. 

What  was  also  important  was  that  the  potential  participants  had  to  have 
completed  basic  vocational  training  in a specific  occupational  field  and  also 
had to  have practical work  experience  in a more or  less complex  sector. 

Key qualifications  and  the motivation  of the  participants 
As  the  Telekompetenz  project  was  oriented  to  work-process-integrated 
learning, cardinal importance  had to be attached to key qualifications  such as 
self-organisation,  communication  skills  and  capacity  for  team  work,  thinking 
in  terms  of  networks,  etc.  The  participants  selected  for  this  project  had 
already  acquired these  skills to a  large  extent. 

What  was  also  decisive  for  the  success  of  the  measure  including  the  in-
learning  phase  with  tele-tutoring  was  the  motivation  of  the 
company 
participants  (cf. Weßling-Lünnemann,  1985). This factor was therefore one of 
the central criteria for  selection of the participants.  During the training  course 
the  experience  made  in  previous  ICT  skilling  measures  was  confirmed, 
namely, that  participants  with  a  high  level  of  motivation  are  able  to  achieve 
above-average  learning  outcomes  even  if  some  gaps  exist  in their  previous 
formal qualifications. 

4.1.1.  Canvassing partner  firms  for the in-company  learning  phase 

Factors for the selection  of partner  firms: 
Another  essential factor  for the success of  efforts  to  place the participants  in 
a working relationship in general and to create  new jobs in particular, was the 
careful selection of partner firms. With due consideration of factors specific to 
the  region, the  firms  and  institutions  selected  for  the  learning  projects  with 
tele-tutoring  support were  assessed  on the  following  grounds: 

220 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

•  whether they were, within the scope of their possibilities, willing in principle 
to  offer  permanent  employment  to the  participants  after  completion  of the 
skilling measure, provided the participant  had the personal aptitude for the 
envisaged workplace; and 

•  whether  the  management  of  the  company  in  question  was  basically 
interested  in making use of  IT applications to perform  company tasks. 
Apart  from  the  basic  willingness  of  the  companies  to  meet  these 
requirements,  the  following  criteria  were  also  to  be  considered  when 
selecting the partner firms: 
•  a  realistic  assessment  of  the  current  or  foreseeable  need  for  IT-assisted 

production of goods  and services; 

•  existing  ICT potential and possible fields for the use of  IT applications (e.g. 
PC work stations,  ISDN, network facilities, access to  Internet, remote data 
transmission); 

•  a minimum size  of the enterprise which would ensure that  it could  provide 
the  necessary  personnel,  technical  and  organisational  resources  for  the 
implementation  of  the  in-company  learning  phase  including  tele-tutoring 
and ensure that  it ran smoothly. 
As it was foreseeable that the learning projects would often  have a strong 
impact on the internal operations  of the company  or would affect  its external 
image,  an  essential  pre-condition  for  successful  project  work  was  the 
involvement  of  a contact  partner  in the  company  with  sufficient  authority to 
take the  necessary decisions. 

The role of getting  to know the company and the selection 
of learning projects in the classroom phase 
The  timely  acquisition  of  partner  firms  facilitated  cooperation  with  them. 
Difficulties  often  arose  when  it  was  necessary  to  define  learning  projects 
which  met  both  the  needs  of  the  learner  and  the  requirements  of  the 
company and which, at the same time, included the possibility  of  introducing 
new  application  forms  of  information  and  communication  technologies  to 
create  new  permanent jobs  in the firm.  Experience  from the Telekompetenz 
project  confirmed  that  the  partner  firms  needed  assistance  from  the 
educational  establishments  -  all the  more  if they  had  had  little  contact with 
modern  IC technologies  up to then. This assistance  consisted  of: 
•  appraising what concrete  advantages could emerge for the company from 

the use of  information  and communication  technologies; 

•  defining promising  learning  projects  in line with the specific features of the 

company; 

•  determining  the  demands  the  companies/institutions  would  place  on  the 

personality  and performance  potential of the  participant; 

New qualifications  in  SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change -  skilling  of  IT users 

221 

•  creating  the  technical  and  organisational  pre-requisites  for  the  use  of  IC 

applications  in the firm. 

4.1.2.  Differentiated  teaching 
Differentiated  teaching  was  a  key  function  for  the  efficient  design  of  the 
measure  (see  Figure 2), in particular for the contents  of the  learning  projects 
used for  work-process-integrated  learning. The  teachers  and tele-tutors  had 
the  task  of  putting  the  participants  in  various  interest  groups  corresponding 
to  the  specific  requirements  of  the  individual  project  tasks  and  giving  them 
the specific  group-oriented  and task-oriented  knowledge  they  would  need to 
cope  with  the  requirements  of  the  in-company  learning  phase.  This  meant 
that  all the teaching  staff  had to  have the  necessary  didactic/methodological 
competence  and a strong  commitment  to the  project. Various features  of  the 
successful execution  of these tasks were taken  as examples  of best  practice 
and disseminated to all project partners. These examples contained  features 
such as flexible  reaction  and adaptation  to skill requirements  which were  not 
immediately  apparent  or  whose  dimensions  were  not foreseeable  when  the 
curricula were  being drawn  up. 

If self-directed  learning  is to  be effectively  integrated  in the overall  project, 
some  thought  has  to  be  given  to  it  in  advance.  How  should  the  teaching 
material  be  structured  so that  the  learners  can, if  necessary,  first  learn  how 
to  set  about  exercising  self-directed  learning?  The  selection  itself  of  the 
learning  material  for  each  module  can  be  taken  as  the  structure  for  the 
personalised  learning  approach. But this  material  is  not pre-structured  in the 
narrow  sense  of  the term, it can  only  be  re-arranged  according  to  individual 
needs.  But  approaches  which  are  oriented  more  to  cooperative  learning 
mainly  depend  on  social  contacts  in  the  learning  process,  so  that  pre-
structured tasks hardly play any role. Even the learning objectives  sometimes 
remain  open.  In the  case  of  tele-learning  it will  be  increasingly  important  to 
combine  these  two  approaches:  i.e.  combine  the  structured 
learning 
objectives,  the  tasks  and  the  individual  and  time-flexible  model  of  self-
directed  learning  with the  social  exchange,  the  communication  between  the 
learners  and  the  common  application  of  what  has  been  learned  in  practice. 
This  calls  for  an  explorative 
learning  environment  which  permits  the 
processes  of  self-initiated  autonomous  learning. 

The  feedback  from  the  participating  educational  establishments  and  the 
Labour  Offices  at  the  end  of  the  project  showed  that  the  differentiated 
teaching  of  participants  and  the  approaches  for  personalised  learning  were 
the  right  methods  for  a  differentiated  vocational  qualification  geared  to  the 
needs of the economy  and the  labour  market. 

222 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

4.1.3.  Project work in the in-company learning phase as a form of 

work-process-integrated learning 

In the  Telekompetenz model  project  an  attempt  was  made  to  integrate  the 
findings  gained from the  broad  implementation  the  'work-process-integrated 
learning'  method  in  publicly  funded  skilling  measures.  Traditional  training 
measures  are  increasingly  confronted  with  the  problem  that,  even  if 
additional  training  is  given  after  completion  of  the  measure,  the  skills  they 
taught  no  longer  correspond  to  the  rapidly  changing  needs  of  the  labour 
market. The measures undertaken within the context of  Telekompetenz were 
geared to the needs of companies primarily seeking people who were able to 
enlarge  the  basic  theoretical  knowledge  they  had  acquired  in  their  field  in 
such  a way  that  they  could  perform  their  tasks  flexibly  just-in-time  and on-
demand  and  could  also  assimilate  new  contents.  This  meant  the 
enhancement  and  enlargement  of  skills  which  could  be  adapted  rapidly  to 
altered conditions and changing requirements, which permitted a shift of what 
had  been  learned  between  different  fields  of  activity  and  its  innovative 
application  in new  problem  situations. 

Exploitation  of  the  potential  of  work-process-integrated  learning,  the 
sustainability  of what  has  been  learned, learning which  is geared to  current 
needs  and  is  up-to-date,  and  the  immediate  transfer  of  newly  acquired 
knowledge  to  ongoing  work  processes,  have  all  been  achieved  within  the 
framework  of  the  Telekompetenz model  project.  The  participants  had  the 
opportunity,  not only of applying, consolidating  and exercising what they had 
learned in the course of  a precisely  defined  project,  but they were also able 
to enlarge the relevant knowledge they  required in a targeted manner. While 
executing the learning project the learner transferred theory into practice with 
the  assistance  of  the  tele-tutor  and  sustainably  consolidated  the  newly 
acquired  knowledge,  skills  and  competences.  To  achieve  this,  it  was 
important to structure the  project tasks, to devise  possible  solutions, to plan 
individual  resources,  to  detect  gaps  in  knowledge  and  to  find  means  of 
acquiring  new  knowledge,  in  other  words,  to  achieve  learning  outputs  in a 
self-directed manner in the direct work process. While executing the learning 
project, difficulties  and tricky questions arose for which a just-in-time solution 
had  to  be  found. These  new  solutions  were  immediately  integrated  in  the 
work  process  and  stored  as  newly  generated  knowledge.  This  enabled  a 
blending  of the  learning  and working  worlds to form  a constantly  expanding 
universe. 

One  indispensable  pre-condition  for  the  practicability  of  work-process-
integrated  learning  was  the  capacity  of  the  learner  to  participate  actively  in 
the learning process and to search creatively for problem solutions. For some 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change -  skilling of  IT  users 

223 

of the  participants  this adjustment to an active  role in the  learning process  in 
the course  of the  Telekompetenz  project was an tremendous  challenge.  But, 
autonomous  activity  and  commitment  earned  their  rewards  for  the  learners. 
Firstly,  they  found  recognition  within  the  company  as  competent,  flexible, 
creative  and  committed  people  and  received  the  corresponding  feedback. 
Secondly,  through  their  self-responsible  actions,  e.g.  in  the  planning  and 
control  of  the  work  process  or  in  the  planning  of  their  own  resources,  the 
participants  developed  a  new  feeling  of  self-esteem  and  gained  more 
confidence  in their  own  abilities. The  execution  of  a learning  project  with  an 
outcome  which  they  themselves  had  planned  and  designed  proved  to  be 
immensely  important  as  a  means  of  strengthening  the  self-confidence  and 
self-assurance  of the  participants  of the  Telekompetenz  project. 

The  success  of  the  outcome  was  proved  by  the  placement  of  the 
participants  in the  primary  labour  market  and  in the considerable  number  of 
new jobs  created by the  participants themselves  in the course  of the  project. 

5.  The  results  of  the  'Telekompetenz  Γ  project 

institutions, 

In the  course  of  the  'Telekompetenz  Γ project  it  was  possible,  through  the 
to  provide 
intensive  networked  cooperation  of  various 
approximately  140  unemployed  people  with  skills  geared  to  the  needs  of 
small  and  medium-sized  enterprises.  The  regular  contact  between  the 
learners, the  in-company  instructor,  the tele-tutor  of  the  project  and the tele-
tutors  in the different  educational  institutions established  an effective  network 
for  the  creative  design  and  implementation  of  continuing  training.  Through 
this  possibility  of  immediate  feedback  between  the  learner  and  his  guiding 
instructor and also between the latter and experts  competent for the  problem 
in question, it was  possible to solve  problems  and fill  knowledge  gaps  within 
an extremely short time. In this model project it was possible, through training 
activities, to  create  new jobs  which  would  not  have  been  generated  without 
the  efforts  of  the  participants  undergoing  training  in  the  companies  (see 
Figure 4). The  data for this figure  was  collected at the  end of the evaluation. 
The participants  of one educational establishment were at that time still in the 
training  process  so the  placement  figures  could not  be included. That  is why 
the total universe presented here is reduced to 117. Furthermore, it should be 
mentioned  that,  in  the  case  of  a  another  educational  establishment,  staff 
problems arose  at the crucial  point of transition from  the classroom  phase  in 
the educational establishment to the learning phase in the company. This had 
an adverse effect on the success of the work in the partner firm and made the 

224 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

success ratio of this educational institution fall far below the average, and this 
had a negative influence on the total figures. 

Figure 4. Creation of jobs (as of Nov. 2001) 

70 

60 

£ 50 
II 
g 
¿2 40 
ro 
S 30 
■E ra α. 

20 

10 

Job take­up total 

New jobs 

Jobs generated solely 
by the project 

Source: Ludigk, 2001. 

6. Conclusions for the identification of skill 

requirements 

As a whole, the evaluation of the 'learning by working' processes applied in 
the Telekompetenz project clearly showed that it is possible to generate new 
qualifications by initiating this approach of pro­active action in a formerly hazy 
area of activity (see Figure 5). 

Important results are firstly, the training for dual qualifications and 

secondly, linkage of a basic qualification in the IT field with specific 
qualifications for application in an enterprise. Dual qualifications are 
generated through the combination with the commercial or technical 
knowledge which the participants had acquired in their earlier careers. The 
information provided by the company representative on the reasons for 
recruiting the person concerned shows what an important role this dual 
qualification plays. 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for societal  and 
technological  change  -  skilling  of  IT users 

225 

Figure 5.  Decisive  qualification  for the  hiring  of the  participants 

Newly acquired IT-oriented 
qualification 

Vocational qualification 
acquired earlier 

Vocational qualification 
acquired earlier, complemented 
by newly acquired 
tele-competence 

Source: Ludigk, 2001. 

Fields of activity  for  women 
The  results  of  the  model  project  show  that  this  form  of  skilling  seems  to  be 
particularly  suitable  to  offer  women  the  opportunity  of  re-orienting  their 
vocational  careers  to  activities  in  the  field  of  modern  information  and 
communication  technologies.  The  practical  skills  taught  in  the  skilling 
measure  in  modern  methods  of  electronic  data  transmission  and  e-learning 
proved  to  be  particularly  helpful  for  women  who,  because  of  family 
commitments, were  compelled  to  stay  at  home, for  instance  during  parental 
leave,  but  who  could  quite  easily  find  time  for  self-directed  learning  or  tele-
work, so  as  not to  lose  their  contact  with  developments  in their  professional 
fields.  What  is  more,  these  skills  offer  more  opportunities  for  continuing 
vocational  training  or  re-training,  particularly  in  structurally  weak  regions 
where,  without  these  options,  an  occupational  activity  would  entail  decisive 
changes  in conditions  affecting their personal  lives. These include  ownership 
of  property  (house  or  property)  which, as  participants  said,  offered  material 
security  for  their  future  lives  but  tied  them  to  their  locality.  In  particular, 
participants  from  structurally  weak  regions  -  and a  majority  of the women  -
who spoke about their career developments  said that they felt strongly  bound 
by such factors. 

226 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 6. Proportion of women in job placements (as of Nov. 2001) 

120 

100 

TO 

ro 
O-

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

Men 

■ Women 

Β 

Were placed in jobs 

I 

Participated in training 

Source: Ludigk, 2001. 

> 

Orientation of specialisation of IT knowledge 
As indicated above, the contents of more extensive learning in the work 
process were at first derived from the coordination of the interests of the 
learners, the partner firms and the educational establishments. To achieve 
the practical relevance for the firm the intention was to coordinate the basic 
knowledge already possessed by the learner with the remaining training 
needs to be imparted by the educational establishment, and this was to be 
formulated in one or more learning projects. An overview of this process 
shows that the learning projects derived from this method were structured as 
follows: 
1. introduction of modern information and communication technologies and 

their adaptation to company requirements; 

2. presentation of the company and marketing with the use of IT 

applications; 

3. direct utilisation of IT applications for sales through the installation of e-
commerce applications and establishment of e-shops and suitable order-
placing, sales and payment channels; 

4. other application fields of modern information and communication media 

such as e-leaming, information research, mobile computing. 

New  qualifications  in SMEs  for  societal  and 
technological  change  -  skilling  of  IT users 

227 

To a certain extent  these fields contain  packages  of combined  skills, but it 
was  not  possible  to  determine  at  this  point  whether  these  would  lead  to 
further  continuing  training  requirements  in  the  future.  The  ongoing  surveys 
now  being  conducted  in  the  Telekompetenz  II  project  will  provide  further 
information  on this. 

7.  Final  remarks 

the 

innovative  design  of  the  training  measures  and 

their 
Through 
environment  it has been  possible, through  pro-active  action, to  discover  and 
not  merely  forecast  a future  (make  SMEs  aware  of their  latent  needs). 

In  the  course  of  this  measure  it  was  possible  to  verify  the  hypothetical 

theses through  practical  action. 

Unemployed  people  were  given  targeted  training  for  the  application  of 
modern information  and communication  technologies. The implementation of 
continuing  training  in  the  form  of  work-process-integrated  learning  led  to  a 
situation  where  the  employees  of  the  companies  were  directly  integrated  in 
the  process  of  generating  these  modern 
IT  applications.  This  in  turn 
promoted the acceptance of  IT applications. The production of these  services 
in the  direct  working  environment  ensured  that  the  company  ordering  these 
services  had  a  direct  influence  on  the  end  product.  It  also  ensured  that  the 
product  corresponded  to the  needs of the company  and that the qualification 
of  the  learner  was  directly  influenced  by  the  company.  In  addition,  the 
progress  of  work  was  directly  visible  and  this  facilitated  the  monitoring  and 
evaluation  of  outcomes  and  enhanced  the  motivation  of  the  learners.  The 
company  was  in  a  position  to  get  a  clear  idea  of  the  competences  of  a 
potential  employee. 

In our opinion  it is possible to transpose  this method of pro-active  creation 

of new skills  can  be considered  if: 
•  there  is a hazy situation  with  indistinct  description  of  needs; 
•  the  possibility  exists  of formulating  a learning  project; 
•  specialised  skills  are shaped through  learning  in the  work  process; 
•  participants'  activities  in  the  acquisition  of  these  skills  include  the 
processing  of  further  information  and  knowledge,  i.e.  they  are  trained  as 
'knowledge  workers'. 

228 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Bibliography 

Abicht, L; Baldin, K.­M.; Bärwald, H.; Greim, R.; Schamel, E. Ermittlung von 
Trendqualifikationen als Basis zur Früherkennung von Qualifikations­
entwicklungen. Vol. 1, 1999. 

Abicht, L; Bärwald, H. Trendqualifikationen in der IT­ und Multimediabranche 

­ Einstiegschancen auch für Erwerbslose. BWP ­ Berufsbildung in 
Wissenschaft und Praxis, 1/2002. 

Abicht, L; Schönfeld, P. Teletutoring in der betrieblichen Lernphase. Working 

material of the isw, 2000. 

Bergleiter, S. Didaktische Grundlagen des Lernens im Prozess der Arbeit. 

Internal working paper of isw, 2002. 

Dubiel, G.; Schubert, F. Eignungsfeststellungen ­ handlungsorientiert. 

Internal working paper of isw,, 2002. 

Freikamp, H. Teletutoring ­ eine neue Generation medialen Lernens. 

Europabrief No 7, May 2001. 

Freikamp, H. Neue Qualifikationen für das Teletutoring. FreQuenz 

Newsletter, 1/2002. 

Hohenstein, Α.; Wilbers, K.W. Handbuch E­Learning ­ Expertenwissen aus 

Wissenschaft und Praxis. Cologne, 2002. 

Kerres, M.. Multimediale und telemediale Lernumgebungen: Konzeption und 

Entwicklung. Munich; Vienna; Oldenbourg, 1998. 

Lüdigk, R. Abschlussbericht zum Modellprojekt Telekompetenz. Münster, 

New York, Munich, Berlin, 2001. 

Rohs, M., ed. Arbeitsprozessintegrierte Weiterbildung in the IT­Branche. In 
Arbeitsprozessintegriertes Lernen ­ Neue Ansätze für die berufliche 
Bildung., Münster; New York; Munich; Berlin, 2002. 

S.n. Perspektiven für das Lernen in der Arbeit. Kompetenzentwicklung, 

Münster, New York, Munich, Berlin, 2001. 

Weßling­Lünnemann, G. Motivationsförderung im Unterricht. Motivations­

forschung Vol. 10, Göttingen, 1985. 

Zimbardo, P. G. Psychologie. 5.ed., Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, 1992. 

PART  IV 

Initiatives 
at  regional  level 
and  in  countries 
in  transition 

This  Part  presents  several  initiatives  to  early  identify  skill  trends 
and  requirements  at  regional  level.  Special  attention  is  paid  to 
activities  in  central  and  eastern  European  countries  which  have 
to  cope  with  difficult  problems  in  the  process  of  transformation. 
the  early 
illustrate 
The  contributions 
identification 
specific 
skill 
of 
implementation 
characteristics.  Their  design  and  method  of 
must  therefore  take  into  account  the  features  of  the  region, 
sector  and  country  in  question. 

for 
display 

that  systems 

requirements 

Articles  in  Part  IV 

Ferran  Mané, Josep  Oliver (E) 
A note  on  the  evolution  of  labour  supply  in  Spain 
and  its  implications  at  regional  level 

Olga Strietska-llina  (CZ) 
Qualitative  versus  quantitative  methods 
of  anticipating  skill  needs:  perspective 
of  a country  in  transition 

Pal  Tamas (HU) 
Skill  markets  in  a learning  society: 
transformation  and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

Lewis Kerr  (ETF/I) 
A demand-side  analysis  of  SME skills  needs 
in  regions  of  five  candidate  countries 

A note  on the  evolution 
of  labour  supply  in  Spain 
and  its  implications 
at  regional  level n 

Ferran Mané, Rovira i  Virgili University; 
Josep Oliver, Autonomous  University of Barcelona, Spain 

A fast  pace of technological  change and  unstoppable globalisation  are creating a 
competitive  environment  where  firms  must  come  up  with  new  products  and 
produce  them  efficiently.  These  changes  are  decisively  affecting  the  skills  the 
workforce must bring to the labour market. Most research concludes workers have 
to upgrade their qualifications  to command  high wages or avoid  unemployment. 
Alternatively,  some  research  is pointing  to  potential  problems  of  overeducation. 
The argument is the supply of workers with high skill levels is outpacing demand 
for such workers. The outcome is we find workers in jobs where a lower education 
or  experience  would  be  enough.  Although  debate  on  the  potential  mismatches 
between supply and demand for labour is not new, there is an important issue that 
may  change  its  focus,  namely  the  demographic  transition  experienced  in  most 
western  economies.  We  see  youth  cohorts  growing  much  smaller,  females, 
especially older females, more attached to the labour market and an increasing role 
played  by immigration. As a result,  there will be high levels of uncertainty  in the 
labour market, which means improving information on what the labour market will 
look like in the future becomes a key issue. Policy-makers, employers and families 
will  need  this  information  to  prepare  their  strategies  for  dealing  with  all  these 
changes successfully.  This paper discusses the characteristics of this demographic 
transition  in Spain,  and  presents  the  results of  two forecasts,  one  for  Spain  as a 
whole and one for a part of it (the Catalan region). Comparing both analyses, it is 
clear there are severe imbalances on evolving regional labour markets, which call 
for policies at regional level. 

(')  For a detailed analysis  see  Mané  and Oliver,  2001a, 2001b, 2002. 

A note on  the  evolution  of  labour  supply  in  Spain 
and its implications  at  regional  level 

231 

i.  Labour  force  supply 

Supply  of  labour  has  two  dimensions:  the  first  is  the  number  of  people 
available  to  develop  working  activities  and  depends  on  the  relationship 
between  inflows  (how  many  people  will  enter  the  labour  market  in  the  near 
future)  and  outflows  (how  many  people  will  retire).  The  second,  more  in 
qualitative terms, concerns the basic level of education potential new workers 
will  bring  onto  the  labour  market.  Both  dimensions  are  obviously  related  as 
the  educational  level  of  those  entering  the  labour  market  can  be  different 
from those who  leave  it. 

1.1.  Demographic  evolution  in Spain 
During  the  past  two  decades,  one  of the  most  prominent  social  phenomena 
has  been  the  increase  in  ageing  of  western  societies.  Coupled  with  a  low 
level of mortality the  main reason for this has been decline of the fertility  rate. 
In  Spain, this  trend  has  been  especially  marked.  Spain  has  gone  from  the 
highest  fertility  rate  of  OECD  (except  for  Ireland)  in  1977  (three  births  per 
woman)  to the  lowest  in  1999  (1.1 births  per woman)  (2). 

Figure  1.  Birth rates in Spain, 1971-2001  (Life births per  1 000  inhabitants) 

15 

10  -

5 

0 

1971 

ι 
1976 

't 
1981 

r 
1986 

1991 

, 

. 
1996 

_ 

) 
2001 

Source: INE. 

(2)  There  was  a severe  and  continuous  decline  between  1976  and  1989,  following  some  stabilisation 
from  this  moment.  In  fact, there  is  a  current  trend  for  the  fertility  rate  to  increase  slowly.  For  basic 
data  and  comments  on  the  economic  implications  for  the  demographic  change  in  Spain, see  Ahn 
(1998a). 

232 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

In brief,  in the  late  1980s, the  number  of  Spanish  youth  turning  16 years 
old was near 650 000 per year. This figure had gone down by the late 1990s 
to 450  000  per  year.  What could  explain this  dramatic  decline  in the  fertility 
rate? Traditionally,  it has been attributed to increasing  rates of female  labour 
force  participation  which  postpones  marriage  and  childbearing.  Indeed, 
women  have shown  an  increasing  attachment  to the  labour  market,  moving 
from an activity  rate below  30% in  1977 to slightly  over  42% in 2001 among 
working-age  females,  and  much  more  rapidly  among  younger  women  (for 
example, from  30% to  70% among those  aged 25 to  34).  However,  as Ahn 
and  Mira  (1998a)  defend,  some  other  aspects  may  play  a  more  important 
role.  (3)  These  authors  suggest  that  high  youth  unemployment  and  a  rising 
proportion of temporary  contract  holders have brought enormous  uncertainty 
on  future  careers  and  income  as  well  as  lower  current  income  for  many 
individuals and households. (4) 

Without  doubt,  we  have experienced  a baby-burst.  Besides, the  situation 
will clearly  not get better, but worse, even if members  of these small cohorts 
change  their  family  model  towards  one  with  more  children.  This  dramatic 
decrease  in  the  flow  onto  the  labour  market  is  combined  with  an  opposite 
pattern  from  the  outflow  caused  by  retirement.  Apart  from  a  pure 
demographic  reason  (people  reaching over  65 years old)  (5), this increase in 
the  number  of  people  moving  out  of  the  labour  market  reflects  a  trend 
towards  earlier  retirement.  Ahn  and  Mira  (2000)  report  the  decline  in 
participation  rates  was  substantial  during  the  late  1970s  and  most  of  the 
1980s  for  all  male  age  groups  over  50  years.  Between  1977  and  1987 the 
participation  rate declined about 20% for those  in their 60s and 8% for those 
in their 50s. Since the late  1980s the participation  rate for the youngest (50-
54)  and  the  oldest  (65-69)  has  been  more  or  less  stable,  but  not  for 
intermediate  groups,  that  have  shown  the  same  decreasing  trend  of  the 
1980s. As  a  result,  the  average  age  of  retirement  has  changed  from  65 in 
1970  to  61  in  1995.  However,  it  seems  during  the  late  1990s  there  was  a 
modest reversal of these trends, and more important,  not only for  males, but 

(3)  They  depart  from  some  empirical  evidence  suggesting  the  negative  relationship  between  fertility 
rates  and  female  labour  market  participation  does  not  hold  any  more.  On  the  contrary,  this 
relationship  has  become  positive  since  the  late  1980s  in  several  OECD  countries  (Ahn  and  Mira, 
1998b). 

C)  In the mid-1990s, 45% of 29-year  old males were  still  living  in their  parental  home; in addition, the 
most dramatic  decline in the fertility  rate was among those aged 20-29 (in the last two decades has 
dropped  by 70%). Note that  unemployment  has affected  the  youth  population  more than average. 
(5)  In  fact,  in  Spain  the  'baby-boom'  generation  is  relatively  younger  than  in  other  countries,  which 
means  the  elderly  population  will  grow  more  slowly.  Note  that  we  have  moved  from  the  largest 
generation  ever  in our country  to a very  small  one  in just  a few years. 

A note on the  evolution of  labour  supply  in  Spain 
and  its  implications  at  regional  level 

233 

also for females  (whose participation rate had hardly changed during the past 
two decades). 

As  stated  before,  the  presence  of  retirement  policies  that  encourage  exit 
from  the  labour  market  have  played  an  important  role  in  explaining  these 
trends  (Alba, 1997; Blanco, 2000). Although use of these schemes during the 
1980s  was  a  way  to  help  the  restructuring  of  declining  sectors  or  as  a 
substitute for unemployment  subsidies in depressed  regions, this is no longer 
the  case.  In  fact,  early  retirement  has  been  used  lately  (especially  in  large 
firms)  to  substitute  old workers  with  outdated  skills  by  younger  workers  with 
more  fitting  qualifications.  For  several  reasons,  including  the  demographic 
trends  just  described  (note  in  1981  the  net  inflow  to  the  labour  market  was 
nearly  370 000, decreasing  to 276 000 in 1991 and only  an expected  60 000 
in 2001 ), we will have to substitute this policy for others focused on  retraining 
these  people. 

Another  topic  to  consider  is  the  increasing  number  of  foreign  born 
residents  because  of  immigration flows.  In 1991,  there were  around 360  000 
'official'  immigrants.  By 2000, this  figure  almost  tripled. Official  data  also  tell 
us  they  currently  represent  about  2%  of  the  occupied  population.  But  this 
number  is clearly  underestimated.  First, we  have a potential  large  number of 
illegal  immigrants  who, by  definition, are  not  included  in official  statistics.  In 
addition,  there  is  a  group  running  small  stores  and  working  as  peddlers, 
which  are  difficult  to  include  in  some  statistics.  This  inflow  of  mostly  young 
males  may  change  the  demographic  trend  in  future  years,  mainly  because 
there  is  a  political  commitment  to  allow  family  reunification. As  foreign-born 
females  (especially Africans) show higher fertility rates than Spanish females, 
there  could  be a boost  in the average  number  of  children  by family. 

1.2.  The  stock  of  human capital  in Spain 
Without  doubt,  Spain  has  made  a  tremendous  effort  over  the  past  years  to 
improve  the  educational  level of  its youth.  In fact,  over  the  past  25 years, the 
Spanish  educational  system  has  experienced  the fastest  growth  of  all  OECD 
countries. We can now say almost everybody stays in education up to 15 years 
old, while in 1975 fewer than  half of  15-year olds were enrolled  in high school. 
There  has  also  been  an  important  evolution  of the  enrolment  rate  in non-
compulsory  secondary education. We have  moved from  a net enrolment  rate 
of 40% for  17-year olds  in 1975 to almost 79% in 1999. Although this  change 
is impressive, we still have a low level of enrolment compared to other  OECD 
countries.  For  instance,  in  1999,  countries  like  Belgium,  Finland,  France, 
Germany,  Japan,  the  Netherlands  and  Sweden  had  net  enrolment  rates  of 
over  90% for this  group of  17-year  olds. 

234 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 1. Net enrolment rates in public and private institutions 1999; 

JQJJ 

^^^^3 
40 

■^E!3 A 
29 

selected OECD countries 

^ ^ ^ ¡ ^ ■ F ^ ^É 

^EiTjTj^Ä 

^EUIÜME^B 

Austria 

Belgium 

Denmark 

Finland 

France 

Germany 

Greece 

Ireland 

Italy 

Japan 

Netherlands 

Portugal 

Spain 

Sweden 

United Kingdom 

United States 

95 

100 

97 

100 

97 

98 

93 

96 

88 

99 

102 

92 

95 

97 

103 

107 

92 

98 

93 

94 

95 

97 

92 

92 

79 

95 

107 

83 

85 

97 

84 

88 

87 

96 

82 

96 

91 

93 

65 

81 

73 

94 

95 

84 

79 

97 

73 

82 

67 

85 

76 

85 

80 

85 

68 

74 

69 

na 

80 

66 

66 

95 

53 

63 

74 

58 

46 

68 

67 

na 

49 

47 

na 

55 

54 

66 

46 

49 

50 

63 

40 

47 

54 

48 

62 

42 

35 

na 

57 

41 

56 

46 

47 

38 À 

Source: OECD. Education at a glance, 2001. 

We also have a problem with vocational education. The number of 

students has consistently decreased since the early 1990s. This is worrying 
because we have a much lower number of youth enrolled in vocational 
education than most other countries. An important feature of our educational 
system is its bias towards the academic track. In 1999, 70% of all students 
enrolled in upper­secondary education were pursuing an academic curricula, 
in sharp contrast with Scandinavia and Germany, where it is normal to have 
around 60% of students enrolled in vocational secondary education. 
Nevertheless, more young adults already working or with some working 
experience are enrolling in vocational education to obtain further education. 
In fact, if this trend continues, it could make up for the reduction of youths 
directly entering the system from compulsory secondary level. 

In sharp contrast, the number of people attending university has increased 
greatly, from 652 549 students (in 31 universities) in 1980 to 1 581 415 (in 62 
universities) in 1999. If we look at gross enrolment rates, we can clearly see 

A note on the evolution of labour supply in Spain 
and its implications at regional level 

235 

this increase: for  18 to 24 year  olds, in 1990 this  rate was 23%, while  in  1999 
it  climbed  to  32%.  In  clear  contrast  to  the  comments  made  about  smaller 
enrolment  in upper-secondary  education, these  rates are among the  highest 
in the world. 

Finally,  the  last  issue  worth  noting  is  the  distribution  between  short-  and 
long-cycle  studies.  During  the  1990s  we  observed  an  increase  in  the 
percentage  of  total  students  enrolled  in  short  cycles,  representing  40%  in 
1999.  It  is  difficult  to  set  a  'goal-to-achieve-figure',  but  we  can  interpret  this 
increase  in the  number  of  people  choosing  short cycles  in two ways. On  the 
one  hand,  it  may  easily  reflect,  as  the  number  of  students  increases,  the 
'quality' of the average student decreases, and they go for an easier  pathway 
to get  a university  degree. On the other, these  studies  could have  become  a 
'substitute' for a devalued vocational education. As already stated, vocational 
secondary  education  has a low  level of  consideration, and, until  recently,  we 
lacked a tertiary  system of  professional  studies. (6) 

2.  Comparing  the  evolution  of  the  Spanish  and 

Catalan  labour  markets 

The  goal of  this  second  part  of the  paper  is to compare  briefly  the  evolution 
of the Spanish  and Catalan  labour  markets up to 2010. The  main result  is we 
can see severe  labour shortages  in Catalonia, but a more  balanced  situation 
for the whole  of  Spain. This  means  that  in other  regions, there  must  be  high 
levels  of  labour  surpluses.  Before turning  our  attention  to the  results  of  both 
forecasts, we introduce  a note on the  methodology  used in the two  analyses. 

2.1.  The  methodology  used 
The methodology  used to calculate our projections  is based on the  manpower 
requirement approach.  (7)  In this approach, demand  and supply  forecasts  are 
made  independently  and  then  compared. 
If  supply  does  not  match 
requirements  (demand),  labour  market  problems  are  predicted.  Basic 
'manpower'  methodology  is  based  on  mechanistic  methods  of  extrapolating 
past changes in economic structure and the composition of employment. Thus, 
the  main  flaw  in  this  approach  is  its  'rigidity',  as  the  trends  of  the  past  will 
continue  in the future. Another  key  methodological  flaw  is this approach  does 

(6)  Nevertheless,  as  noted  before,  this  may  be  changing  rapidly.  In fact,  over  the  past  two  years  we 
have  seen  a  decrease  in the  number  of  students  pursuing  a  short  university  degree,  which  could 
reflect  some  students  now  prefer  a  more  'traditional' vocational  education  degree. 

0  See  Van  Eijs  (1993)  for  a basic  outline  of  this  methodology. 

236 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

not consider  any feedback  effects between demand and supply of labour. 

On the  demand side  of our  projections, we  have followed what  Fina et al. 
(2000)  call  a 'stage  by  stage  procedure'. The first  step  is to  forecast  future 
economic  growth  (applying  a  macroeconomic  model)  and 
forecast 
employment  growth  from  it, preferably  at sector  level. Unfortunately,  such a 
model has not been developed to forecast employment growth breakdown at 
the level we need. Thus, we have calculated the average annual employment 
growth from 1985 to 2000. To divide this total employment growth among the 
different  sectors  of  the  economy,  our  hypothesis  is  it  will  follow  a  similar 
evolution  (some  industries  losing  and others  gaining  importance)  to the one 
from  1994  to  2000.  We  compared  the  employment  structure  by  industry  in 
both  years,  and  calculated  the  percentage  change  over  the  period 
considered. (8) This change was  applied to the period 2000 to 2010. 

Once the industry evolution is defined, the next step consists of calculating 
the occupational structure that comes out of it. To do so, we applied a method 
similar  to the  one just  mentioned. We  calculated  the  percentage  change of 
the  occupational  structure  by  industry  between  1994  and  2000  and  applied 
this evolution to forecast future change. 

The  last  step  in  forecasting  labour  demand  between  2000  and  2010 
consists  of  turning  the  changes  in  occupational  structure  into  educational 
necessities. Again, we  use the  same technique  and calculate the change in 
educational  levels  of  employees  by occupation  and  industry  over the  period 
1994 to 2000 and we apply this evolution to forecast future change. 

To  make  an  accurate  forecast  of  the  future  labour  market  situation,  it is 
necessary  to  know  the  evolution  of  both  demand  and  supply  of  the  labour 
force. 

The supply side has two dimensions: first, quantitative, which depends on 
demographic  trends  and  individual  decisions  on  labour  force  participation; 
second, qualitative, which  reflects the human capital of the population. 

On  the  first,  the  relevant  population  are  already  born  because  the 
projections are for 10 years. In a mechanistic way, we just moved up 10 years 
every  population  group divided by age and sex. (9) 

It  Is  more  complex  to  calculate  decisions  on  labour  force  participation, 
especially among females. To do so, we calculated the trends in labour force 

(e)  Some  'ad-hoc'  restrictions  are  often  imposed  (for  instance,  some  convergence  to  a  specific 
structure observed in other countries)  over the evolution of the sector structure of employment. The 
structure  we  end  up  having  in  2010  seems  in  line  with  what  we  forecast,  so  we  did  not  introduce 
any  restrictions. 

(9)  Note that the  main problem of our projection  is we  have  not included adjustments  for  net  migration 

or for  mortality  during  working  age. 

A note on the evolution of labour supply in Spain 
and its implications at regional level 

237 

participation  by  age  and  sex  between  1992  and  2000  and  we  applied  this 
evolution to forecast future  change.  It could  be argued we  should  have  used 
a longer period of time to capture trends in labour force participation correctly. 
Although, generally speaking, this is correct, in Spain we  used to have a very 
low  female  activity  rate.  If  we  had  used  a  longer  period  we  would  have 
overestimated  the  potential  growth  of  female  labour  market  participation. 
Using  information  from  the  early  1990s,  once  an  important  part  of  the  work 
had been done, prevented  us from  making this  mistake. 

As  stated  before,  we  need  to  know  not  only  how  many  people  would  be 
offering their  services  to the  labour  market,  but  also  their  level of education. 
Our  hypothesis  is that  people over  25 years old  in 2000 will  not be  acquiring 
more  education,  so  they  will  keep  the  same  level  of  education.  Thus,  only 
those below this age will change their  human capital endowments. To project 
these changes we calculated the differences  in educational  attainment  in the 
year  2000  for  the  groups  of  26  and  36  years  old. We  applied  the  variation 
observed  to  incoming  cohorts  (10),  checking  that  the  projected  increases  in 
level  considered  were 
the  quantity  of  people  with  every  educational 
compatible  with the  number  of  people  actually  enrolled  in  every  segment  of 
the educational  system. 

2.2.  Results 
A summary  of  results  appears  in Table 2. 

Results  for  the  Catalan  economy  clearly  show  that  with  the  current 
demographic  structure,  the  Catalan  population  cannot  supply,  just  by 
increasing  their  activity  rate,  the  more  than  420  000  new  workers  the 
economy  will  need. A  major  imbalance  in  the  human  capital  demanded  by 
firms  and  that  supplied  by  individuals  is  also  forecast.  In  conclusion,  the 
Catalan economy will face severe problems  in both labour shortages and skill 
gaps.  To  avoid  these  problems,  we  will  have  to  increase  labour  force 
participation  of  our  population,  especially  among  women  over  40.  We  will 
also  need  large  flows  of  immigrants.  In this  way,  we  could  solve  the  labour 
shortage  problem,  but  we  could  create  an  even  more  important  problem  of 
skill  gaps,  unless  we  set  up  massive  programmes  of  skill  upgrading  or, 
alternatively,  we are  able to  attract  highly-skilled  immigrants. 

The  situation  for  Spain as  a whole  is different.  The  main  conclusion  from 
the projections  until 2010 points to a balance between supply and demand of 

(,0) 

It  was  not  possible  to  use  variations  in  educational  attainment  in  two  different  points  of  time, 
because  the  classification  methodology  recently  changed  and  the  educational  groups  were  not 
comparable. 

238 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

Table 2.  Projection of labour force demand and supply  by level of 

education  2010 in Catalonia and Spain 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

CATALONIA 2010 

No education 

103 183 

178 237 

12319 

165 918 

62 735 

Primary 

1  176 652 

1 381 113 

63 188 

1 317 925 

141 273 

62  735 

141  273 

Vocational training 

567 078 

482 571 

14  476 

468 095 

-98 982 

-98 982 

Upper-secondary 

474 025 

377 456 

13  539 

363 917 

-110108 

-110108 

Tertiary type-B 

290 423 

227 801 

5 284 

222 518 

-67 905 

-67 905 

Tertiary type-Α and PhD 

429 892 

285 211 

6 487 

278 724 

-151 168 

-151 168 

Total 

3 041 252 

2 932 390 

115 293 

2 817 096 

-224156 

-428164 

204 008 

SPAIN 2010 

No education 

Primary 

790 555 

329 086 

11  717 

317 369 

-473 187 

-473187 

7 571  067 

7 390 441 

214 549 

7  175 891 

-395  176 

-395  176 

Vocational  training 

2 850 529 

3 725 055 

222 932 

3 502 123 

651 593 

Upper-secondary 

2180103 

2 428 243 

130 079 

2 298 163 

118 060 

Tertiary type-B 

1 725 752 

1 899 257 

103 175 

1 796 082 

70 330 

651 593 

118  060 

70  330 

Tertiary type-Α and PhD 

2 375 383 

2 424 288 

172 741 

2 251 547 

-123 837 

-123 837 

Total 

17 493 389 

18196  370 

855 193 

17  341175 

-152 217 

-992 200 

839 983 

Source: authors. 

labour  in  the  Spanish  labour  market  over  the  next  decade.  High  levels  of 
unemployment  may come to an end soon and no important skill  mismatches 
are forecast. 

It is clear Spain will have important  regional tensions. The Spanish  labour 
market  is  characterised  by  large  regional  imbalances.  While  female  labour 
force  participation  is quite  high and the number of immigrants  is also  high in 
some  regions,  in others the  unemployment  rate  remains  over  10% (coupled 
with low female labour market participation). As a result, the country will most 
likely  need  relevant  improvements  in the geographical  location  of  either the 
labour force  or productive  capacity.  Note that to  move people from  one part 
of  Spain to another  is difficult  because of the important social and economic 
roles of family and social networks and different living costs (notably housing) 
in the Spanish  regions.  Policies are needed to deal with these problems. 

One  could  argue  that  Spain  has  a  long  tradition  (as  other  countries)  in 
large national relocations of population  (especially from the south to the north 
during the  1950s and 1960s), so it should not be problematic to go through a 

A note on the evolution of labour supply in Spain 
and its implications at regional level 

239 

similar  process.  Regardless  of  personal  costs  most  people  bore,  the  main 
difference  between former  migration  and what  we  may  need  in the future, is 
we will  have to  move females,  not  males.  Males  used to  look for  a job  while 
their  spouses  stayed  at  home. This  is  no  longer the  case, because  to  make 
it economically  viable to  move  a family  to  another  region  means  finding  two 
jobs,  one for  each  adult  member  of the family  (at  least). 

3.  Policy  implications  for  demographic  transition 

in  Spain 

In these  past  25  years, Spain  has  experienced  several dramatic  changes  to 
the  quantity  and  composition  of  labour  supply  which,  most  likely,  will 
continue.  Labour  supply  is  shrinking  because  of  the  incoming  cohorts. Two 
actions  might  counterbalance  this  trend.  First,  we  could  increase  women's 
labour  market  participation.  The  problem  is  that  females  below  40  already 
have a high  activity  rate. It is over  40 where  the  rate  is  low.  But this  group is 
made up  mainly of women  with  low  levels of  education,  making  it difficult  for 
them to  re-enter  the  labour  market  (although  to  some  extent  they  are).  The 
second action would be to defer  males' retirement.  Currently, more than 50% 
of 60 year-old males have already  retired. They  also have a low level of  basic 
education,  but  in  quantitative  terms  we  should  consider  postponing  their 
retirement,  at  least  the  more  skilled.  Obviously,  another  potential  solution 
could be to  increase  the  number  of  immigrants. 

All these  population  groups  (old  men  and women  and  immigrants)  do  not 
normally  have  high  levels  of  education,  which  may  create  problems  of  skill 
gaps between the demand and supply of labour. Given this situation, the level 
of  human  capital  incoming  generations  bring  onto  the  labour  market  is 
important  and as the  number  of youths  decreases,  it can become  a dramatic 
problem.  Spain  must  implement  policies  to  ensure  improving  human  capital 
does  not  get  paralysed.  (11)  It  is worrying  that  an  important  part  of the  youth 
population  (under  35)  only  has  primary  or  lower-secondary  education.  One 
could expect these people to receive  much on-the-job training to make  up for 
their  low  level  of  skills,  but  Spanish  firms  have  not  fully  committed  to  this. 
Where they  have, they  have  normally  focused on their  most  skilled workers. 
We  would  like  to  stress  a  final  point  on  the  unemployment  rate.  An 

(")  Even  though  Spain  is  doing  a  great  job  in  improving  the  educational  level  of  1he  population,  it  is 
none  the  less  still  true  that  the  human  capital  level  of  the  active  population  is  one  of  the  lowest 
among  the  most  advanced  OECD  countries. 

240 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

important  cause  of  high  unemployment  rates  (especially  among  young 
workers)  in Spain during the past two decades was the  massive entrance of 
baby-boom  cohorts  onto  the  labour  market.  This  will  completely  reverse 
during  the  next  two  decades  as  the  baby-bust  cohorts  enter  the  labour 
market.  To  some  extent,  the  high  number  of  unemployed  has  acted  as  a 
'buffer'  to  avoid  important  skill  mismatches,  especially  in  the  fast-growing 
service  sectors. This  may  end  soon, so firms  will  have to  plan  their  human 
resource strategies much more carefully, and develop internal labour markets 
or engage  much more intensively  in training. 

In brief, Spain can face either labour shortages or skill gaps. Where inflows 
to the labour market reduce, and the country is unable to increase the supply 
of  workers  it  will  most  likely  experience  labour  shortages.  Skill  gaps  could 
also appear, but we believe they would be less important because in a labour 
market  with  excess  demand, wages  should  increase  more  rapidly  for  high-
skilled occupations, making people invest in human capital suitable for these 
occupations. Nevertheless, we do not rule out the possibility of  simultaneous 
labour shortages  and skill gaps. On the other  hand, if Spain is able to attract 
more  people  to the  labour  market,  their  educational  endowments  and  often 
their  experience  are  low.  This  could  easily  produce  skill  gaps,  unless,  as 
stated before, wages  increase for the  most skilled occupations. 

The last point to stress about policy implications is that the supply of labour 
will  be very  different  across  regions.  Interregional  mobility  must  be fostered 
by  the  correct  set  of  policies,  ranging  from  regional  immigration  to  labour 
market and labour supply (both by helping women get onto the labour market 
and  by  ensuring  a  correct  flow  of  educated  youths)  with  special  focus  on 
regional characteristics. 

A note on the evolution  of  labour  supply  in  Spain 
and  its  implications  at  regional  level 

241 

Bibliography 

Ahn,  N.;  Mira,  P.  Job  bust,  baby  bust:  the  Spanish  case.  Working  paper 

EEE12.  FEDEA,  Madrid, 1998a. 

Ahn,  N.;  Mira,  P. A  note  on  the  changing  relationship  between  fertility  and 
female  employment  rates  in  developed  countries.  Working  paper  EEE13. 
FEDEA,  Madrid, 1998b. 

Ahn,  N.;  Mira,  P.  Labour  force participation  and  retirement  of  Spanish  older 
men:  trends  and  prospects.  Working  paper  EEE  25.  FEDEA,  Madrid, 
2000. 

Alba-Ramirez, A.  Labour  force participation  and  transitions  of older  workers 

in Spain. Working  paper  97-39. Carlos  III University,  Spain, 1997. 

Blanco, A.  The decision  of early retirement  in  Spain. Working  paper  EEE76. 

FEDEA,  Madrid, 2000. 

Eijs,  P.  van.  The  manpower  requirements  approach:  background  and 

methodology.  ROA-RM-1993/3E.  Maastricht,  1993. 

Fina,  LL.;  Toharia,  L.;  García,  C;  Mané,  F.  Cambio  ocupacional  y 
necesidades  educativas  de  la economía  española.  Formación  y  Empleo, 
Sáez,  F. (coord.).  Fundación Argentaria,  Madrid, 2000. 

Mané,  F;  Alonso, J. Overview  of the skill  shortage  problem  in Spain.  Report 
published  in: European  Commission.  The economic  costs  of  the  skill  gap 
in  the  EU.  Tender  Vc/2000/0196,  coordinated  by  the  Instituto  per  la 
Recerca  Sociale,  Milano,  Italy, 2001a. 

Mané,  F.;  Oliver,  J.  Mercat  de  Treball,  Demografía  i  Sistema  Educatiu  a 
Catalunya  a  les  Portes  del  S.XXI: Reptes  i  Oportunitats  per  a  la  Propera 
Década.  PIMEC-SEFES,  Barcelona, 2001b. 

Mané,  F.;  Oliver,  J.  Forecasting  educational  necessities  in  Spain  through 
2010.  In  Schömann,  K.,  ed.  Skill  needs  and  the  labour  market.  Edward 
Elgar  Publishing,  UK, 2002  (forthcoming). 

OECD.  Education  at a glance.  OECD:  Paris, 2001. 

Qualitative  versus  quantitative 
methods  of  anticipating  skill 
needs:  perspective  of  a country 
in transition 

Olga Strietska-llina, National Observatory of Employment and Training,  Prague, 
Czech  Republic 

In  a  state  of  economic  turmoil,  transition  countries  face  a  challenge  of  how  to 
identify  future  skill  needs  of  the  labour  market.  Insufficient  data  and  short  time 
series  cause  added  difficulties.  This  paper  considers  the  major  advantages  and 
disadvantages  of  different  methodological  approaches  and  their  usefulness. 
Conventional  macroeconomic  forecasts  produce valuable  national  results but are 
not yet reliable enough, or valid at regional level. Qualitative research at regional 
and  sectoral  levels  provide  necessary  information  on  current  skills  required  by 
companies  but  it lacks a longer-term  perspective. Further, because  of  costs such 
research  cannot  be  produced  for  each  region  and  sector  regularly  and 
comprehensively.  The  Czech  Republic  in  a  transnational  project  'Regular 
forecasting  of skill needs' tried  to integrate the two methodological  mainstreams. 
The problems, challenges and  future  tasks that came into view as a result  of this 
work are discussed in this paper. The follow-up work should end in establishing a 
system where  different  components  can  work  complementarily  and  consistently 
together: regular macro level forecasts linked to qualitative information,  periodical 
regional and sectoral surveys and analyses, and regular monitoring and analysis of 
emerging skills and occupational shortages. 

Qualitative  versus quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

243 

i. 

Introduction 

This  paper  presents  some  methodological  issues  and achievements  in  early 
identification  of  skill  needs  in  the  Czech  Republic.  These  findings  resulted 
mainly  from  a transnational  project  'Regular  forecasting  of  skill  needs'. The 
paper  therefore  tackles  the  rationale,  main  idea,  and  some  results  for  the 
Czech  Republic. We shall first glimpse some advantages  and  disadvantages 
of different  methodological  approaches,  and then we  shall  consider  whether 
they can work complementarily, as illustrated in an example from pilot testing 
in the  project.  Finally,  we  shall  tackle  some  problems  arising  and  arrive  at 
conclusions  on  research questions  and future tasks. 

2.  Qualitative  or  quantitative  methods? 

Qualification  needs  analysis  is  an  old  topic  in  a  new  guise  in  many  central 
and  eastern  European  countries  (CEECs)  today.  Under  the  old  regime, 
central  planning  authorities  were  keen  on  drawing  up  rather  detailed 
workforce  plans  for  providing  full  employment.  Planning  in  this  area  was  a 
key  issue  in  the  overall  exercise  of  meticulously  planning  demand  in  all 
aspects of the socialist  economy. The  methods employed were  subordinated 
to this overall purpose. The results were used for changing  manpower  supply 
in  line  with  demands  of  a  centrally  planned  economy  by  regulating 
investment and available places in education and training in certain vocations 
and types of schools.  Previous  planning practices  are widely associated  with 
lack  of  democratic  provision  of  training,  and  therefore  remain  unpopular  till 
today. 

After  the  fall  of  the  communist  regime  these  practices  were  totally 
abandoned  and  often  institutions  in  charge  of  manpower  planning  were 
dissolved.  For  obvious  reasons,  the  term  'planning'  is  not  very  popular  in 
CEECs and the idea of forecasting  labour  market needs for qualifications  and 
skills  requires  a heavy  push  (including  lobbying  and  reasoning  supported  by 
scientific  arguments)  to  prove  that  such  measures  are  necessary. Sadly,  not 
only decision-makers  and civil servants  often fail to see the point;  academics 
are also often  equally  dismissive. 

The transitional  nature  of the  economy  in the  CEECs  and global  changes 
have ensured that  forecasting  is ever  more  challenging  but  at the same time 
ever more necessary.  Slowly  but surely countries  in transition  are  developing 
various  approaches  to analysing  future  needs  of the  labour  market. 

244 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

Several years of ignorance  in prognostic  research have, however, created 
their  own  obstacles  to  development.  Zecchini  (1997)  rightly  noted  that 
existing statistical services  in CEECs are not prepared to measure facts not 
directly  observable  in  all  their  detail.  He  further  noted  'the  tradition  of 
precisely  and meticulously  quantifying  facts  related to the  implementation of 
the central  plan was  suited to  an era  in which the  economy  was  dominated 
by few  large  firms  over  which  the  government  held  strong  control...' (p. 4). 
Under  new  circumstances,  with  a growing  number  of  SMEs,  self-employed 
and  increasingly  widespread  flexible  forms  of  employment,  the  statistical 
services  are  not  prepared  to  measure  economic  trends  in  a  longer-term 
development  perspective.  Comparable  and  reliable  retrospective  data  with 
sufficiently  lengthy  time  spans  are  simply  not  available.  Companies  in 
transitional turmoil  are  unable to foresee  recruitment  and redundancy  in the 
nearest future. 

Mere  analysis  of  the  current  situation  or  a very  short-term  estimation  of 
labour market needs is not enough for policy development  in education which 
requires a perspective of at least four years of the educational cycle. Medium 
to long-term macro level forecasting  has several weaknesses  and gives only 
a  partial  answer.  In  the  economic  turmoil  of  a  transitional  economy  many 
occupations  become  outdated,  with  some  jobs  disappearing  or  changing. 
Under  these  circumstances,  information  on  the  quality  of  the  workforce 
needed  is essential. To find  an  elegant  methodological  solution we  decided 
to  look  at  the  experience  of  other  countries  in  methods  of  analysis  and 
anticipation of skill needs (see Strietska-llina  and Munich, eds., 1999). 

By  quantitative  methods  we  assume  macroeconomic  forecasts  that 
identify  medium  to  long-term  labour  market  needs  in  numerical  terms  by 
occupation  and qualification.  By qualitative  methods we  understand  various 
analytical  approaches  that  try  to  anticipate  both  qualifications  and  skills 
needs,  i.e.  identifying  not  only  numerical  expression  of  demand  but  also 
providing  qualitative  information  on  the  labour  force  required.  Dividing 
methods  into two  methodological  mainstreams  - quantitative  and qualitative 
is  only  conventional.  Such  division  has  its  own  limits,  as  in  fact  both 
- 
mainstreams employ elements of qualitative as well as quantitative methods. 
Both  quantitative  analysis  of  manpower  needs  at  macro  level,  and 
qualitative  or semi-qualitative  analysis of  labour  market  needs  (meso, micro, 
sectoral,  etc.)  have  their  own  advantages  and  disadvantages.  Medium- to 
long-term  regular  forecasting  of  manpower  needs  provides  information  on 
national employment trends which  is useful for decision-makers,  counselling 
services and individuals enabling them to choose their future career and type 
of study for the  next four to five years.  Producing  the forecasts  is not costly, 

Qualitative  versus quantitative  methods of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in transition 

245 

once  the  method  and  all  necessary  data  are  available.  Because  of  its 
'futuristic'  character,  forecasting  sounds  attractive  and  exciting  and  plays  a 
good  informative  role  in  raising  public  awareness  of  future  trends.  On  the 
other  hand, this  is  not  the  case  in  CEECs, where  scepticism  of  forecasting 
and  its  added value  prevails.  Fear  of  forced  planning  of  educational  supply 
contradicts  the  nature  of  transformation  to  democratic  principles  in 
educational  provision  and in access to education  and training. It is therefore 
important 
in  forecasting  have  a  common 
understanding  of  its  objectives.  It is  not to  ensure  a perfect  match  between 
supply  and  demand  (something  hardly  achievable  anyway)  but  to  provide 
information to those  making their choice of education  and career  path. 

that  all  parties 

involved 

As  stated,  macroeconomic  forecasting  cannot  be  performed  in  CEECs 
without a method adjusting to the economic turmoil and lack of data. Although 
quantified  forecasts  may  be fairly  detailed  at  national  level, the  reliability  of 
results  at  regional  level  normally  is  questionable.  Forecasting  could  be 
undertaken only for rather rough definitions of occupations  and qualifications, 
which  do  not  represent  the  actual  picture  of  skills  required. Also,  forecasts 
can  hardly  consider  newly  emerging  hybrid  occupational  profiles,  whose 
share of the labour market increases with the greater involvement of  modern 
information  technologies  in production  and services.  Conventional  forecasts 
therefore  lag  behind  the  process  of  innovation,  becoming  hostages  of 
revisions of classifications  and systems of occupations  and qualifications. 

Analysis  of  labour  market  needs  could  be  carried  out  by  qualitative  and 
semi-qualitative  methods, performed at a sectoral or regional level. Although 
methods  may  and  usually  do  require  a  questionnaire  survey,  contextual 
analysis, in-depth interviewing, focus groups, etc., the core principle is putting 
people  from  the  demand  and  supply  sides  together  with  experts  and  other 
partners  to  discuss  the  results  of  surveys,  verify  available  statistics,  and 
validate occupational  profiles. The highest  added value of such an approach 
is  not  only  in  the  result  itself  but  also,  and  perhaps  even  more  so,  in 
discussions and attempts to develop common understanding and to achieve, 
if  not  a consensus  at  least  a compromise.  This  approach  is therefore  more 
proactive  than  traditional  manpower  forecasting.  In  addition,  anticipating 
labour  market  needs  may  bear  'soft'  prognosis, developing  scenarios  rather 
than 'hard' linear quantified forecasts. We must, however,  consider that such 
methods  of  anticipation  also  have  several  drawbacks.  They  are  not  pure 
scientific  research,  they  stem  from  cooperation  with  social  partners  and 
industry  experts,  and  therefore  they  deliver  their  opinion  on  where  industry 
stands.  Results  may  not be fully  objective  and final,  and may  be  vulnerable 
to objective  developments  in the  socio-economic  or  even  cultural  contexts. 

246 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Such analyses are always subject to the commitment of partners and experts 
involved. Methods used as a part of the overall anticipation exercise are often 
costly,  are  of  one-off  rather  than  regular  character,  and  produce  a forecast 
limited  in its time perspective. 

Finally,  both  qualitative  forecasting  and  quantitative  anticipation  methods 
are based on current data or judgements and therefore build a view of future 
developments  from the  static  perspective  of today. They  lack the  dynamism 
of  actual  development,  and  perhaps  only  the  scenarios  approach  may 
partially  solve  the  problem.  The  qualitative  approach  of  scenarios 
development  is, however,  subject to the  limits  of the  human  mind's  ability to 
imagine the future while  at the same time bound by determined criteria. 

Table  1.  Quantitative vs. qualitative analyses: pros and cons 

Quantitative analyses 
(macro level) 

Qualitative analyses 
'regional/local/sectoral) 

PROS 

CONS 

^r 

PROS 

CONS 

Results available at 
the level of economy 

Medium to  long-term 
forecast 

Cost-efficient 

Attractive  because of 
its future-oriented 
nature 

Raises public 
awareness 

Objectiveness  of data 
(neutral to  subjective 
judgements) 

Serves various target 
groups 

Data may suit 
counselling and 
guidance  nationwide 
Regular  character 

Lack of  reliable 
retrospective  data in 
CEECs 

Lack of 
macroeconomic 
forecast data in the 
Czech Republic 

Sensitive to  unstable 
contexts 

Scepticism  in 
transitional  societies 

Problematic 
reliability  at more 
detailed level 

Occupational 
forecast  may be only 
roughly translated to 
qualifications, no 
qualitative 
information  on skills 

Brings to the 
forecast a view of 
the state  of the art 
and past trends 

Reliability at sectoral 
or  regional level 

Detailed  information 

Information  on the 
quality  of  required 
labour force 

Possibility  to  update 
occupational  profiles 

Scenarios and shared 
diagnoses facilitate 
shared  commitments 

Shared  commitments 
facilitate 
implementation 

Results are available 
for  limited  territories 
or  industries 

Limited target level 
and number  of  users 

Indispensability of 
involvement of 
experts and 
practitioners  from 
the relevant field; 
difficult  to  commit 
partners 

Short- to medium-
term  perspective 

Second-hand 
judgement; 
subjective 

Costly 

One-off  actions, 
difficult  to  introduce 
regularity 

Qualitative versus quantitative methods of anticipating skill needs: 
perspective of a country in transition 

247 

Considering  the  pros  and  cons  of  quantitative  forecasts  and  qualitative 
analyses  (summed  up  in  Table  1),  we  have  asked  ourselves  whether  we 
need  to  make  a  choice  between  the  two  mainstream  methodologies.  Each 
method appears  imperfect  and  inadequate  on  its own but  may  serve well by 
providing  valuable 
integrated 
methodological  system. This  is  how  the  project  'Regular  forecasting  of  skill 
needs:  comparative  analysis,  elaboration  and  application  of  methodology' 
(LABOURatory)  was  initiated. (1) 

to  a  more  complex  and 

information 

3.  The  project 

The objective  of the project was to suggest  a mid-term (five-year)  forecasting 
model for producing  information  on future  national trends useful for decision 
makers,  guidance  services  and  individuals.  We  were,  however,  aware  that 
considering  the  lack  and  deficiency  of  data  structures  on  education  and 
employment,  the  results  would  not  be  valid  at  regional  and  industry  levels. 
Therefore, the project team also tried to work  out an anticipation  mechanism 
for analyses  at regional  or sectoral  levels. 

The  project  brought  together  various  expertise  from  the  experience  of 
partners  in applying  different  types  of  methods. The  outcomes  are  therefore 
the  result  of  collaborative  work  between  the  two  project  mainstreams  -  one 
part  of  the  partnership  worked  mainly  on  elaborating  and 
improving 
quantitative  forecasting  models  and  another  on  qualitative  analyses.  The 
difficulty  in introducing  a joint approach and a common understanding  among 
partners  specialised  in  each  of  the  methodological  mainstreams  speaks  for 
itself.  For decades analyses, although  undergoing  significant  methodological 
developments,  were  worked  out  in  parallel.  Research  institutions  supplying 
the  results  of  macroeconomic  skill  forecasts  at  national  level  worked 
separately,  and  with  limited  exchanges  of  methodological 
ideas,  from 
institutions  performing analyses of skill needs in specific sectors and regions. 
The former  were  linked to  national  policy-making, while the  latter,  by  looking 
at  micro  level  demand,  were  driven  mostly  by  the  need  to  provide  specific 

(')  The  project  was  implemented  with  the  support  of  the  Leonardo  da  Vinci  programme.  It  involved  a 
trans-European  partnership  [Czech  National  Observatory  of  Employment  and  Training  (project 
leader), the  Czech  Centre  for  Economic  Research  and  Graduate  Education  at  Charles  University, 
the  Dutch  Research  Centre  for  Education  and  the  Labour  Market,  the  Irish  Economic  and  Social 
Research  Institute,  the  Regional  Employment  and  Training  Observatory  of  Burgundy,  the  French 
private  consultancy  company  Quaternaire,  an  interinstitutional  research  team  in  Poland,  and  the 
National  Observatory  and  regional  HRD  Fund  of  Slovenia]. The  project  lasted  for  over  two  years 
(1998-2001). 

248 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

information to schools  and training organisations  on the quality  of the labour 
force  required.  The  idea  was  as  unique  as  was  it  simple:  to  link  the  two 
different  approaches  and  research  experiences  and  make  them  work 
together. 

The results of the project could be seen as a testing stage which helped to 
identify  methodological  problems  rather  than  introduced  ready-made 
answers  and  solutions.  We  believe,  however,  this  is  already  a  big  step 
forward. We shall now look at some successes and failures from the findings 
of the Czech project team. 

3.1.  Phase 1 : The quantitative  model 
One  of  the  suggested  quantitative  models  in  the  Czech  Republic  is 
macroeconomic 
forecasting  elaborated  by  the  Centre  for  Economic 
Research  and  Graduate  Education  (CERGE)  based  on the  Dutch  model of 
the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA). The Czech 
team  faced  many  data  limitations.  Therefore  the  model  is  not  yet  fully 
functional  or  reliable.  It  requires  further  efforts  in  research  and  enrichment 
with  data.  The  model  compares  the  forecast  of  demand  for  labour  by 
education  or  occupation  with  the  projected  supply  of  labour.  The  model  is 
presented in Figure 1. 

The  model  considers  expansion  demand,  based  on  the  macroeconomic 
projection  of  employment  by  industry,  and  replacement  demand  which 
captures  the  need  to  replace  workers  (e.g. due  to  retirement).  Because of 
data  limitations  the  forecast  is  only  available  for  a  maximum  of  50 
occupational  clusters  and  59  educational  types  (see  Annex  1). The  major 
drawback 
forecast  of 
is  the  absence  of  a  reliable  macroeconomic 
employment  by  industry  in the  Czech  Republic. These  important  data were 
therefore  substituted  by  the  available  demand-side  macromodel  'Hermin', 
which was not initially designed as a standard forecasting model. It is also not 
sufficiently  detailed  at  industry  level  to  supply  reliable  information  on 
employment  demand.  Elaboration  of  a  standard  macroeconomic  sectoral 
model is therefore an important task for the future. 

The CERGE-model  is mainly  based on the  labour force survey  (LFS) and 
on  the  labour  supply  projection  from  statistical  records  on  enrolments  by 
education. Developing the model involved  many  efforts  in matching  different 
classification  systems  and clustering  occupations  to  ensure  data validity. (2) 
The  model  eventually  predicts  shortage  by  type  of  education  (Annex  2, 
Figure 1 A) and introduces two indicators: first, future labour market prospects 

(2)  Full  information  on the  model and its  methodology  is available  in Munich,  D. et al. (2001). 

Qualitative  versus  quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of a  country  in  transition 

249 

Figure  1. Czech  Forecasting  Model  (ROA-CERGE) 

Expansion demand  by industry  (2000-04) 

- Vector  of  employment  (E)  by  15  industries 

Τ 

Τ 

J 

Expansion demand  by occupation 
(2000-04) 

(a)  Vector of  E  by  10  occupations 
(b)  Vector of  E  by 50  occupations 

Expansion demand  by education 
(2000-04) 

Vector of  E by 59  education  categories 

Replacement  demand by occupation 
(2000-04) 

(a)  Vector  of  E by  10  occupations 
(b)  Vector  of  E by 50  occupations 

Τ 

Job openings  by occupation 
(2000-04) 

(a)  Vector  of  E by  10  occupations 
(b)  Vector  of  E by 50  occupations 

Replacement  demand  by education 
(2000-04) 

Vector  of  E by 59  education  categories 

Τ 

Job  openings by education 
(2000-04) 

Vector  of  E by 59 education  categories 

Labour market  indicators by education  (2000-04) 

Τ 

-  Indicator  of future  labour  market  prospects 

Τ 
-  Indicator  of future  recruitment  prospects  J 
t 
t 

Short-term  unemployment  by education 
(1999) 

Inflow  of school leavers  by education 
(1999-2004) 

Vector  of  unemployment 
by 59  education  categories 

Vector  of  E by 59 
education  categories 

~ 

Source:  Munich, Jurajda et al.,  2001. 

250 

Early identification of skill needs  in Europe 

for  those  looking  for  jobs  (Annex  2,  Figure  2A),  and  second,  future 
recruitment  prospects  for employers  (Annex 2, Figure 3A). 

Developing the model in a transition  economy with huge restructuring and 
introducing  technological  innovation  was  a  breakthrough  in  prognostic 
research. We have to consider, however, the fact the forecasting model relies 
on  past  data  series  whose  pattern  might  be  altered  significantly  under 
economic  transition  and  qualitative  changes  on the  labour  market. Also  the 
results of the forecast are too general. Because of the limited size of LFS, the 
model  cannot  be  interpreted  at  regional  level. This  represents  an  important 
constraint:  regional  mobility  of  labour  is low  in the  Czech  Republic,  and the 
national  labour  market therefore  is to  a certain extent  composed  of  regional 
submarkets  (Munich  et  al.,  2001).  That  is  why  more  regional  qualitative 
analyses appear  an important  additional  source of information. 

3.2.  Phase 2: The qualitative  survey  on tourism  in a selected  region 
The  pilot  analysis  of qualification  and skill  needs  in tourism  was  held  in one 
selected  region  in  three  countries  (Czech  Republic,  France  and  Slovenia). 
The strikingly similar  results for the three countries are briefly summarised in 
the Table 2 (3). 

The Czech team employed  rather  a straightforward method: 

•  analysis of sectoral development at European, national and regional levels; 
•  analysis  of policy plans  and developments; 
•  socio-economic  analysis of the region; 
•  company  survey  (24 face-to-face  interviews with  a qualitative 

questionnaire); 

•  several focus groups with experts from the  region and firms; 
•  SWOT analysis; 
•  development  of scenarios. 

Pilot  results  of  a  macroeconomic  forecast  were  used  as  one  source  of 
information. Thus, both quantitative  and qualitative  methods were applied as 
additional to each other  (see below). 

The synthesis  and detailed  results of the three surveys can be consulted  in Strietska-llina, O. et al. 
(2001);  Zelenka,  J.  et  al.  (2001);  Giffard,  A.  and  Guegnard,  K.  (2001);  and  Karnicnik,  M.  et al., 
(2001). 

Qualitative  versus quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

251 

Table 2.  Required  skills  in the sector  of tourism  in selected  regions 

Slovenia -  Podravje  region 

Czech Republic  -  North West 

Γ 

France  - Burgundy 

ι 

German language 

English language 

Language knowledge 

Language knowledge 

Social communication 

Social  communication 

Managing and working with  people 

Food preparation 

Manual skills specific to the sector 

Hygiene, food security 

Food/desserts decoration 

Technical skills 

Broad  professional base 

Specific  professional  knowledge 

Conservation techniques, 
lighter cuisine, 
more diversified food 

IT skills 

IT skills 

IT skills 

Designing travel arrangements 

Strategic  planning 

Creativity 

Commercial  skills 

Financial skills 

Selling travel arrangements 

Sales skills 

Sales skills 

Marketing 

Expertise in wine 

Marketing 

Management  skills 

Management skills 

J 

Note:  This table  sums  up the  required  skills as mentioned  by companies  during the survey. The shaded  sections  indicate 
those  most  needed, the skills  in italics are those  mentioned  by some, and the skills  in  normal characters  are  rarely 
mentioned. 

3.3.  Phase 3: Integration  and some  results 
The  qualitative  sectoral  analysis  included  confrontation  with  major  trends 
displayed  in  the  quantitative  forecasting  model.  During  this  phase,  we 
discovered  several  drawbacks  in  the  quantitative  macro  level  forecasts, 
which we will consider  in our follow-up  work. Thus, the two  methods  present 
a complex  methodological  cycle  (Figure  2). 

Figure  2.  Methodological  cycle 

Macro-level 
lorecast 

Sectoral (regional) 
analysis 

252 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

This was only a first step towards integration of the two approaches. Much 
still  needs  to  be  done. To  make  this  phase  more  understandable,  we  shall 
briefly  illustrate this research step with one specific  line of reasoning. 

The first problem we faced was the definition of tourism. In our  qualitative 
survey  we  assumed  tourism  includes  hotel  and  catering  as  well  as  travel 
agencies  and  tourist  information  centres.  This  did  not  correspond  to  the 
conventional  division  by  industry  in  the  NACE  classification,  used  in  the 
macroeconomic  projection.  Results  of  the  mid-term  macroeconomic 
employment  forecast  in the hotel and catering  industry  (Annex  2, Figure 4A) 
in fact corresponded to predicted employment trends in qualitative scenarios: 
fairly  modest  but  steady  employment  growth  is  forecast  whereby  the 
pessimistic  qualitative  scenario  assumed  slight  growth  or  stagnation  of 
employment  opportunities. Apart from the  numerical forecast, the  qualitative 
scenarios considered such factors as entrance to the EU, access to structural 
Funds,  introducing  the  new  concept  of  government  policy  in  tourism  in the 
Czech  Republic, and many others. 

The qualitative  analysis showed a twofold  nature of trends  in tourism. The 
attractiveness of the hospitality sector is largely linked to its traditional nature, 
with  old roots and long-standing  customs.  Its traditional  character  represents 
the  mainstream,  conservative,  part.  It  is  often  characterised  by  high  labour 
turnover, high proportion of low-skilled workers, and low investment in training 
employees. This traditionalism is in contrast with dynamism. New and modern 
forms  of  organisations  with  complex  and  comprehensive 
information 
systems  (4), such  as tourist  information  centres,  represent  dynamic  features 
and,  most  importantly,  a driving  force  for  development.  This  dynamic  part is 
characterised  by  vast  application  of  information  and  communication 
technologies  (Zelenka  et  al.,  2001).  The  key  to  success  in  the  tourism 
business  is  therefore  a  highly  qualified,  multiskilled  labour  force  capable  of 
providing  traditional  services  with  new  technologies,  and  offering  complex 
travel  packages  maximally  adjusted to the diverse expectations of clients. 

Let us now look at the macroeconomic forecast for the three most common 
educational  categories  for tourism. We are already  aware  of the  inadequate 
detail  in  educational  categories.  We  need  therefore  a  compromise  for 
selecting  categories that suit the educational fields we are interested  in (e.g. 
gastronomy, hotel and tourism, cook, waiter, etc.). We need to select a higher 
level of groupings, where the educational fields in question are combined with 
'kin' fields. These are for  instance: No  12 of the project  code  (see Annex  1) -

C)  Such information systems integrate information from travel agencies, hotels, transportation, guides, 

interpreters,  regional  development  agencies,  local administration, etc. 

Qualitative versus  quantitative  methods  ol anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

253 

trade  and  services  at  apprenticeship  level,  No  43  -  economics,  trade  and 
services  at secondary  vocational  education  level with final exam, and  No  55 
- economics, trade  and services  at higher  education level. 

Let  us first  see the  mid-term  supply  and  demand  on  the  labour  market  for 
these three educational categories. Trade and services at apprenticeship  level 
(No  12),  and  especially  economics,  trade  and  services  at  higher  education 
level  (No  55)  are  forecast  to  be  in  excess  supply  (negative  values, Annex  2, 
Figure  1A);  unlike  economics,  trade  and  services  at  secondary  vocational 
education level with final exam (GCSE, No 43) where there will be a significant 
shortage  (positive  value,  Annex  2,  Figure  1A).  Roughly  the  same  trend  is 
forecast  by  the  indicator  of  future  labour  market  prospects  (Annex  2,  Figure 
2A), and the  indicator  of future  recruitment  prospects  (Annex  2, Figure 3A). 

The  trend  of  shortage  and  surplus  qualifications  was  determined  by  the 
traditional  nature  of  the  sector  where  skill  needs  are  mostly  targeted  at  the 
intermediate  level  of  qualifications  (four-year  vocational  education  with  final 
exam  providing  GCSE).  With  greater  involvement  of  modern  technologies, 
low-qualified workers can no longer  keep up with the needs of businesses. In 
fact,  apprenticeship-type  school 
leavers  (mostly  three-year  vocational 
programmes)  were  the  only  category  whose  quality  was  criticised  by 
employers 
in  our  qualitative  survey.  The  surplus  of  higher  education 
graduates  in  relevant  fields  of  education  cannot,  however,  be  interpreted  in 
the  same  straightforward  way.  In  cases  of  shortage  of 
intermediary 
qualifications,  excess  supply  of  higher  education  graduates  in  similar  study 
fields  may  force  them  to  occupy  jobs  initially  designed  for  lower  levels  of 
qualification. This  is an important  observation  for  methodological  findings, as 
the  current  macroeconomic  forecasting  model  does  not  include  these 
substitution  effects.  The  latter  are  likely  to  be  especially  important  during 
economic  transition  and  significant  skill  mismatch  (Munich  et  al.,  2001). 
Incorporating  substitution  effects  into  the  forecasting  model  is  therefore  a 
future  task. 

Apart  from  possible  compensatory  effects  of  demand  in  workers  with 
intermediary  skills  being  replaced  by  higher  qualified  labour,  it  is  also 
important  to  consider  the  effects  from  changes  in the  sector.  Current  stress 
on providing traditional services with predominantly  lower-skilled labour  could 
change  markedly  demand  during  qualitative  development  in  the  sector. 
Should  new technologies  continue to be the driving force and its share  in the 
sector  grow  further,  the  forecast  based  on  past  trends  will  be  overturned. 
Growing  demands  from  employers  for  use  of  information  technologies, 
in  regional  socio-economic  and  territorial  planning, 
integration  trends 
including  infrastructure  and the  environment,  and the  growing  importance  of 

254 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

information  networks  at  various 
levels  are  increasing  demands  for 
comprehensive  services  in  tourism.  This,  in  turn,  increases  the  need  for 
higher qualifications  and skills. Expert surveys have shown that demands on 
the  skills  and  professionalism  of  middle  management  will  grow.  In  such  a 
scenario, more people with top-level qualifications  in relevant study fields will 
be needed and university graduates  in economics and business subjects will 
enjoy  increasingly good job prospects. The question, however, arises of how 
far  the  trend  will  be  affected  by  the  rather  modest  wages  on  offer  in  the 
tourism sector  (Zelenka et al., 2001). 

This is one of many examples we found during the integrative phase of the 
project.  Trying  to  combine  results  of  the  quantitative  forecasts  and  the 
qualitative sectoral analysis was pilot testing only and many problems remain 
unsolved.  However,  it helped to  provide  some conclusions  on  improving the 
forecasting technique, the data and their  structures.  For instance, it became 
clear  that  clustering  occupations  and  grouping  educational  types  provide 
inadequate  information  for  drawing  any  significant  conclusions  from 
quantified  forecasting.  Therefore,  in  future  much  work  will  be  needed  to 
provide  information  at disaggregated  levels. 

4.  Some  conclusions,  further  challenges  and  tasks 

The  project  was  only  a  first  attempt  at  integrating  different  methodological 
approaches. The Czech team has now started follow-up work planned during 
2002 and 2003. (5) 

Much work on harmonising  data structures  for qualitative and quantitative 
components, and on improving data input, structures and methods is needed 
in  future.  The  first  attempts  at  integrating  the  quantified  forecast  by 
occupation  and education with qualitative  information  on skills needs proved 
useful.  It would be naive, however, to  imagine that to produce a reliable and 
sufficiently  detailed  interpretation  of  the  macroeconomic  forecast,  it  is 
necessary to run another qualitative survey and research in every region and 
sector. Although  such surveys  are  important  and useful, they  are also costly 
and  time-consuming.  Such  studies  should  be  undertaken 
in  special 
circumstances, for  instance,  in  a sector  where  a significant  skill shortage is 
forecast,  or  where  supply  provides  enough  qualified  workers  for  certain 
occupations  but  they  choose  different  occupations 
leaving  demand 
unfulfilled. 

(5)  All follow-up  activities  are supported  by the  Czech  Ministry  of  Labour  and Social Affairs. 

Qualitative versus quantitative methods of anticipating skill needs: 
perspective of a country in transition 

255 

We  are  now  looking for a nationwide  perspective  of  skill  needs at an early 
stage with enough detail, more reliability  and some  information on the quality 
of the  required labour force. To succeed without  needing to run extra surveys 
for  each  sector  and  region, we  now  face  the  major  challenge  of  linking  the 
macroeconomic 
forecasting  model  to  the  'Integrated  system  of  typal 
positions' (6) (ISTP).  ISTP is genuinely  an information  system which  currently 
includes a catalogue  of more than  1 000 standardised working  positions  with 
a description of each working activity, and its requirements for skills, personal 
aptitudes  and  educational  background.  Further,  each  working  position  is 
linked to  the classification  of educational  fields  used  in supply-side  statistics 
and  to  over  500  occupations.  It  is  an  open  system  complemented  and  up 
dated continuously  with the direct  involvement  of social  partners. 

It is obviously  of  high  relevance for forecasting  labour  market training  and 
education  needs.  Describing  each  working  activity  for  the  whole  set  of 
standardised  working  positions  provides  a  unique  opportunity  to  study 
substitution  between occupations.  ISTP links the  highly  stratified fields of the 
Czech  education  system  to  a  catalogue  of  occupations,  providing  a  labour 
market  forecaster  with  a  solid  base  for  aggregating  occupations  and 
translating  macroeconomic  forecasts  into  information  on  the  quality  of 
qualifications  and skills required. Such integration, however, demands further 
clustering  of  occupational  groups  in  ISTP  and  richer  data  input  (e.g. 
extension of the  LFS sample)  for the forecasting  model. We are  also  looking 
at using alternative  data sources to  LFS to ensure  more detail  in forecasting 
results. 

The  greatest  challenge 

the  various  methodological 
is  to  ensure 
approaches  complement  one  another  in  identifying  skills  needs  and  the 
system  works  regularly.  This  will  require  developing 
interinstitutional 
cooperation  for  data  supply,  interpretation  and  dissemination  as  well  as 
producing a system for ordering, tendering, financing  and recognising  results 
of  analyses  of  skill  needs. A major  development  will  be to  ensure  legitimacy 
of  the  system,  whereby  tripartite  arrangements  (between  both  sides  of  the 
industry  and the  government)  are  indispensable. 

Another  challenge  is  to  guarantee  accuracy  of  results  and  reliability  of 
analysis  over  time.  Considering  the  unstable  profiles  of  occupations  and 
general changes  in the world of work  influenced by global developments, it is 
ever  more  important to find a way to  make cooperation  between  experts  and 
social  partners  ongoing.  Particular  stress  therefore  was  put  on  verifying 

(6)  ISTP was  developed  by  the  Czech  company  Trexima  with  the  support  and  initiative  of  the  Ministry 

of  Labour  and  Social Affairs. 

256 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

results in focus groups with direct involvement of experts, social partners and 
educators, where the process of verification progressed to 'shared diagnosis' 
and collective  commitments. Such activities  should be more actively  used in 
future where scenario  building  may become  a justifiable qualitative  part of a 
macroeconomic  forecast. This  could  make  it possible, for  instance, to  verify 
macroeconomic  sectoral  employment  forecasts  with  the  help  of  Delphi 
methodology  and  later  design  scenarios  with  direct  involvement  of  experts, 
practitioners  and  politicians.  It  is  important  identified  needs  receive  the 
necessary  recognition  for  possible  follow-up  measures  at  policy  and 
implementation  levels.  Scenario  building  and  shared  diagnosis  increases 
commitment  of  participants to further  implementation  steps. 

Another  important  challenge  emerges  from  the  qualitative  change  on 
labour markets in CEECs. Evidence in the Czech Republic shows that almost 
90% of companies  increased demands for quality  of the workforce over past 
two  years  (Kaderabkova,  Strietska-llina  et  al., 2001).  Restructuring  and the 
high  rate  of  technological  change  in  CEECs  brought  about  the  problem  of 
skill  gaps  and  qualification  shortages.  One  third  of  Czech  companies 
consider  skill  shortages  a  problem.  In  more  dynamic  and  new  technology-
oriented sectors  about half  of companies are aware of skill shortages on the 
labour  market. The  higher  the  level  of  occupation, the  more  skill  shortages 
are reported by firms. The shortage  skills  reported across sectors and levels 
of occupations  are mostly social skills, foreign  languages  and  IT skills. 

About one quarter of all companies experience recruitment difficulties at all 
levels.  However,  the  reasons  are  different:  lower  skill 
occupational 
occupations  are often difficult to fill because of  poor working conditions, lack 
of  job  stability,  low  wages,  etc.,  while  more  skill  demanding  vacancies  are 
often  difficult  to fill  because  of  shortage  of  appropriate  qualifications  on the 
labour  market.  Shortage  occupations  are  reported  sporadically.  Most  are 
either  specific  with  hybrid  specialisation  requirements  (such  as doctors  with 
clinical  accreditation  for  work  in  spas,  publicity  workers  with  thorough  ICT 
skills for work in tourism), or linked to fast developing  businesses  in dynamic 
industries (IT educators, programmers, system analysts, etc.). The qualitative 
change on the labour market is also shown in changing occupational profiles. 
Although  the  latter  are  reported  by  only  8%  of  firms,  multiskilling  and  job 
interchange  are  often  introduced  by employers  (40% and 44% respectively; 
see  Kaderabkova  et  al.,  2001) 
leading  to  a  larger  share  of  hybrid 
occupational  profiles and demand for combined skills. 

Qualitative versus  quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

257 

Shortages  of skills  and qualifications  on the  labour  market  is made  worse 
by  low  awareness  in  CEECs  against  often  better  awareness  and  therefore 
more  thorough  policy  measures  in  neighbouring  EU  Member  States.  The 
latter  often  introduce  attractive  packages  for foreign  qualified  workers  which 
can cause  an  increase  in the  brain  drain  in  CEECs.  It is therefore  important 
to  have  a  transparent  system  for  monitoring  and  early  recognition  of  skill 
shortages  on  the  labour  market.  This  task  shall  be  tackled  in  the  Czech 
Republic  in  2002-03  by  developing  a  methodology  and  conducting  a  pilot 
analysis  of  skill  shortages  and  shortage  occupations  in the  Czech  Republic. 
investigation  of  existing  methods,  a 
The  analysis  shall 
questionnaire  survey  among  regional  employment  services  on  repeatedly 
announced job  vacancies,  a survey  among  personnel  agencies,  analysis  of 
vacancy  advertisements  in the  media,  focus  groups  and  interviews  on  new 
occupations  and  job  profiles,  a  company  survey,  an  analysis  of  needs  and 
shortages  recorded  by  investors,  and  others.  Identifying  and  monitoring  skill 
shortages  on  the  Czech  labour  market  should  then  become  an  integral  part 
of  the  overall  system  of  early  identification  of  skill  needs  in  the  Czech 
Republic. 

include  an 

The  project  should  end  in  establishing  a  system  where  different 
components  can  work  complementarily  and  consistently  together:  regular 
macro  level  forecasts  possibly  linked  to  the  ISTP  information  system, 
periodical  regional  and  sectoral  surveys  and  analyses,  and  regular 
monitoring  and  analysis  of  emerging  skill  shortages  and  shortage 
occupations.  The  Czech  team  has  also  come  with  a  proposal  to  set  up  a 
national  information  platform  to  incorporate  information  on  various  activities 
in early  recognition  of skill  needs  at national, regional  and  local  levels. Such 
platform  can  be  a  useful  reference  point  for  researchers  and  practitioners. 
Exchanging  knowledge  on  modern  methods of  research on early  recognition 
of  skill  needs  appears  useful  at  European  level.  Further,  the  Czech  team 
would  welcome  the  creation  of  an  international  network  of  researchers 
preferably 
including  countries  outside  Europe  where  much  forecasting 
research  has  brought  interesting  high-quality  results.  Such  a  network  must 
bring 
researchers  applying  conventional  macroeconomic 
quantitative  forecasting  and those  performing  qualitative  research  to  enable 
both  sides to share their  experiences  and find common  solutions. 

together 

258 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

References 

Giffard,  Α.;  Guegnard,  K.  Forecasting  methodology  for  qualification  and 
training  needs:  the  case  of  the  hotel  and  catering  sector  in  Burgundy  -
France.  In Strietska-llina,  O.  et  al.; Havlickova,  V., tech.  ed. Forecasting 
skill  needs:  methodology  elaboration  and  testing.  Prague:  National 
Observatory  - NVF, 2001, pp. 315-340. 

Kaderabkova,  Α.;  Strietska-llina,  O.  Human  resources  in  the  context  of 
regional  development.  Company  skills  survey  in  selected  industries  of 
North West Bohemia. Prague, Turin: European Training Foundation, 2001. 
Karnicnik,  M.;  Luzar,  D.; Gerzina, S. Analysis  and forecasting  of the training 
needs  in the  sector  of  tourism  -  Podravje  region  - Slovenia.  In Strietska-
llina,  O.  et  al.;  Havlickova,  V.,  tech.  ed.  Forecasting  skill  needs: 
methodology elaboration and testing. Prague: National Observatory - NVF, 
2001,  pp. 341-364. 

Munich,  D.; Jurajda,  S.;  Babeckij, J.; Stupnickyy,  O.  Regular  forecasting  of 
training  needs: quantitative  models  for  the  Czech  Republic.  In Strietska-
llina,  O.  et  al.;  Havlickova,  V.,  tech.  ed.  Forecasting  skill  needs: 
methodology elaboration and testing. Prague: National Observatory - NVF, 
2001, pp. 17-129. 

Strietska-llina,  O.;  Munich,  D.,  eds.;  Havlickova,  V.,  tech.  ed.  Forecasting 
education  and  training  needs  in  transition  economies:  lessons  from the 
western European experience. Prague:  National  Observatory  - NVF, UIV, 
TAURIS, 1999. 

Strietska-llina,  O.; Giffard, Α.; Guegnard,  K.  Regional  and sectoral  analyses 
as  a  methodology  of  forecasting  labour  market  needs.  Case  study:  the 
hotel,  catering  and  tourism  sector  in  the  Czech  Republic,  France  and 
Slovenia.  In Strietska-llina,  O. et al.; Havlickova, V,  tech. ed. Forecasting 
skill  needs:  methodology  elaboration  and  testing.  Prague:  National 
Observatory  - NVF, 2001, pp. 221-230. 

Zecchini, S. Transition approaches  in retrospect.  In Zecchini, S., ed. Lessons 
from  the  economic  transition:  Central and  Eastern  Europe in  the 1990s. 
Dordrecht,  Boston, London, 1997, pp.  1-34. 

Zelenka,  J.;  Strietska-llina,  O.;  Havlickova,  V;  Beranek,  J.;  Riha,  J. 
Qualification  and  skill  needs  in  the  sector  of  tourism: the  case  of  North 
West  Bohemia  -  Czech  Republic.  In  Strietska-llina,  O.  et  al.,  eds. 
Forecasting  skill  needs:  methodology  elaboration  and  testing.  Prague: 
National Observatory  - NVF, 2001, pp. 231-314. 

Qualitative  versus  quantitative  methods of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  ol  a country  in  transition 

259 

ANNEX  1 
Educational  classification 
(LFS-based,  linked  to  national  classification) 

[PC  ' 

Education 

' 

Specialisation 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

26 

27 

28 

Without 
school  education 

No 

Primary  (9 years) 

No 

Grammar  school 

with GCSE 

No 

Machine  control  and  operation 

Mechanical engineering, 

metallurgy 

Electrical engineering, 

transport,  communication 

Chemistry, food  industry 

Textile, clothing  industry 

Wood  processing, shoe  industry 

Construction 

Agriculture  and forestry 

Trade, sen/ices 

Other 

Natural  sciences 

Mechanical  engineering 

Electrical  engineering 

Construction 

Other technical  sub|ects 

Agriculture, forestry 

Health 

Economics, trade, services 

Law 

Teacher-training 

Other social  subjects 

Other sciences and disciplines 

Machine  control  and  operation 

Mechanical engineering, 

metallurgy 

Electrical engineering, 
transport,  communication 

Apprenticeship 

Secondary 

vocational 

Apprenticeship 

with GCSE 

[pcf 
29 

30 

31 

32 

33 

34 

35 

36 

37 

38 

39 

40 

41 

42 

43 

44 

45 

46 

47 

48 

49 

50 

51 

52 

53 

54 

55 

56 

57 

58 

59 

PC = Project Code 
Source:  Munich, Jurajda  et al.,  2001. 

Education 

T 

Specialisation 

]1 

Chemistry,  food  industry 

Textile, clothing  industry 

Apprenticeship 

Wood  processing, 
shoe  industry 

with GCSE 

Construction 

Secondary 

vocational 

with GCSE 

Higher 

education 

Agriculture  and  forestry 

Trade, services 

Other 

Natural  sciences 

Mechanical  engineering 

Electrical  engineering 

Construction 

Other technical  subjects 

Agriculture, forestry 

Health 

Economics, trade, services 

Law 

Teacher-training 

Other  social  subjects 

Other  sciences  and  disciplines 

Natural sciences 

Mechanical  engineering 

Electrical  engineering 

Construction 

Other  technical  subjects 

Agriculture, forestry 

Health 

Economics, trade, services 

Law 

Teacher-training 

Other  social  subjects 

Other  sciences 

and  disciplines 

J 

260 

Early  identification  of skill  needs  in  Europe 

ANNEX  2 
Figure  1a:  Shortage  by type of education, 2000-2004 

-40 000 

-30 000 

-20 000 

-10 000 

10  000 

20 000 

30 000 

40 000 

NB: types of education  in shortage on the Czech labour market correspond to positive bars, while those in excess 

supply correspond to negative values. The education codes are presented in Annex 1. 

Source:  Munich, Jurajda et al., 2001. 

Qualitative  versus  quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

2 61 

Figure 2a:  Indicator  of  future  labour  market  prospects,  2000-2004 

NB: When the indicator of future  labour  market prospects takes on values larger than  1, workers with 

the given education will find it  harder to find employment. The education codes are  presented  in Annex 1. 

Source:  Munich, Jurajda et al., 2001. 

262 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 3a: Indicator of future recruitment prospects, 2000-2004 

■ 

^^^^_ 

1 

3 

5 

7 

9 

11 

13 

15 

17 

19 

21 

23 

Λ 

27 

29 

31 

33 

35 

37 

39 

41 

43 

45 

47 

49 

51 

53 

55 

57 

59 

05 

1 

1.5 

2.5 

WS: Higher values (more than 1) of the indicator of future recruitment prospects signal good recruitment prospects for firms. 

Low values correspond to problems in recruiting workers with the given type of education. The education codes are presented 
in Annex 1. Source: Munich, Jurajda et al., 2001. 

Qualitative  versus quantitative  methods  of  anticipating  skill  needs: 
perspective  of  a country  in  transition 

263 

Figure  4a:  Employment  in  hotels  and  catering -  forecast 

up to  2000-2005 

170 000 

165 000 

160 000 

3 

155 000 

150 000 

145 000 

140 000 

'93  '94  '95  '96  '97  '98  '99  '00  '01  '02  '03  '04  '05 

Source:  Zelenka. Strietska-llina  et al., 2001;  CERGE forecast. 

Skill  markets  in  a  learning 
society: transformation  and 
vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

Pal Tamas,  Hungarian Academy of Science,  Budapest,  Hungary 

Discussions on 'the knowledge economy' have proliferated  in recent years and are 
tightly  linked  to  policy  prescriptions,  management  strategies  and  fundamental 
changes in work, education and leisure. By putting new slants on academic debates 
about  the  character  of  knowledge,  labour  and  learning,  many  actors  in  this 
discourse believed that they could  suggest progressive practical reforms  based on 
sound theoretical  foundations. 

This paper attempts to raise a number of questions on some of the theoretical 
underpinnings.  The  main  thesis  is  that  the  increased  intensity  of  knowledge 
pen'ading  labour and production  in modern sectors of transformation  economies 
could  possibly  change  the  nature  of  employment  relationships,  leading  to 
increased  national  variability  in control  of  the  labour  process  and  the  firm. This 
could  be encouraged  through  policy inten'ention  and would  lead  to an evolving 
skill system characterising national forms of capitalism emerging in the region. 

i.  The  framework:  knowledge  markets  and 

territories 

A focus  on the  learning  economy  of  the  new central  and  eastern  European 
countries  (CEECs),  in  contrast  to  those  investigations  that  addressed  the 
structural  limits  to  learning,  raised  the  possibility  of  a  learning  economy 
creating contextual conditions of endogenous  development. 

Different  national  institutional  frameworks  support  different  forms  of 
economic  activity.  Coordinated  market  economies  have  a  competitive 
in  diversified  quality  production.  Uncoordinated  market 
advantage 
economies,  in comparison, are most competitive  in sectors  based on  radical 
innovative  activities  (Soskice,  1999).  Coordinated  systems  are  connected 
with  the  post-Fordist  development  path  based  on  competitive  advantage 
(Porter,  1990).  Uncoordinated  economies  combine  this  with  comparative 

Skill  markets  in a  learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

265 

advantage  based  upon  neo-Fordist  developments.  The  tendencies  in  the 
latter  depend  upon  the  technological  parameters  of  the  particular  market 
sector. 

The  best  performances 

from  coordinated  economies  are  found  in 
diversified  quality  production  of  relatively  complex  goods.  In  contrast,  the 
most  successful  uncoordinated  economies  perform  best  utilising  the 
knowledge  generated from  national  innovation  systems. 

Judged  from  this  perspective,  the  Hungarian  economy,  actively  reformed 
in  the  1990s,  represents  a  polarised  mixed  case.  There  is  still  a  significant 
concentration  on  labour  intensive  low  tech  industries,  yet  there  are  also 
numerous  'A-'level  high tech  industries. 

The,  on  average,  low  level  of  skills  of  workers  in the  labour  intensive  low 
tech  industries  creates  aggregated  structural  problems  for  this  part  of  the 
Hungarian  economy,  particularly  when  exposed  to  global  competition  from 
countries  in  regions  with  even  lower  costs  (e.g.  south  east  Europe).  The 
changing  commitment  of  the  firms to  their  expressed  and  latent  needs  -  not 
only  but  primarily  in  the  low  technologies  -  also  influences  the  professional 
involvement  of  employees.  Without  commitment  from  the  enterprise  (or  the 
organisation  in  general)  to  the  individual,  a  reciprocal  commitment  of  the 
individual  to  its  organisational  environment  cannot  be  expected  (Lazonick, 
1994). 

The  institutional  competitive  advantage  of  semi-coordinated  market 
economies,  like  the  central  and  eastern  European  ones,  seems  to  be 
in 
founded  on 
manufacturing 
interactive 
innovation  models. 

industries  (Asheim,  2000)  characterised  by 

the  upgrading  of  existing 

technological 

trajectories 

In this respect it is important to remember  (Freeman and Perez,  1988) that 
knowledge  diffusion  very  strongly  depends  on  the  socio-institutional 
framework. The learning and absorbing capacity of the respective society, the 
configuration  of  social  capital  in  the  national  innovation  system  and  the 
proximate  access  to  high  quality  educational  facilities  are  becoming  crucial 
for  economic  performance. 

With regard to 'configurations of development', it is necessary to determine 
whether  basic  factors  (population  mobility,  information 
infrastructure, 
technology  transfer  patterns,  etc.)  help produce  an autocentric  development 
trajectory,  or  build  negative  combinations  which  generate  different  forms  of 
'blocked  development'. 

In  the  Hungarian  and  CEEC  case  two  groups  of  factors  contributed 
decisively  to the  re-industrialisation  and  rapid economic  development  during 
the  1990s:  socio-structural  factors  ('socialist  market'  reforms  of  the  late 

266 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

1960s and a relatively  even stratified distribution of  knowledge)  and politico-
institutional factors (mobilising effects of political transformation, identification 
of  professionals  as  intelligentsia, well-constructed  'exit'  strategies  for  labour 
conflicts,  etc.).  Despite  early  attempts  in  the  transformation  to  discredit 
egalitarianism  - identifying  it with socialism  - some social  and  psychological 
structures  remained  relatively  egalitarian.  That  is  a  new  aspect  for  this 
particular  European  area,  though  some  comparative  studies  have  already 
underlined  the  importance  of  a  sort  of  egalitarianism  for  the  Scandinavian 
economic  development  success  story  (Berend  and  Ranki,  1982).  This 
primacy  meant  that  cooperation  became  a  more  central  dynamic  force  of 
transformation  in  the  1990s  rather  than  competition  driven  by  external 
factors. 

The  new  knowledge-based  central  and eastern  European  economies  are 
Soskice  (1999)-type  coordinated  market  economies.  But  these  structures 
could  also  be  easily  interpreted  as  'learning  economies'  (Lundvall,  1996). 
However,  the transition  from  Fordism  to  post-Fordism  in  this  part  of  Europe 
is  not  complete  and  perhaps,  because  of  some  parallel  neo-Fordist 
tendencies,  will  not  be  completed  in  the  immediate  future.  Despite  this, 
according to a new theoretical  understanding, innovation  in this system is an 
interactive  learning  process,  embedded  both  socially  and  geographically 
(Lundvall,  1992). This  means  that  institutional  and  socio-cultural  structures, 
and  the  skill  structures  they  encompass,  should  be  viewed  as  necessary 
prerequisites  for  countries  and  regions  to  be  competitive  in  a  post-Fordist 
economy  (Asheim, 2000). 

In  this  sense,  strategic  parts  of  the  learning  process  are  localised  and 
related to the historical trajectories of a country, or of regions. Such territorial 
'context-conditions'  (Dosi,  1988),  or  'territorialisation'  (Storper,  1997)  are 
related to  moments  of  competitive  advantage. The country-specific  skill  and 
motivation  structures  could, 
institutional 
configurations  and  organisational  innovations,  contribute  to the formation of 
learning  regions  (Asheim,  1996).  Developments  in a  number  of  central  and 
eastern  European  regions  (like Western  Hungary, Malopolska  in  Poland, the 
Bratislava Region in Slovakia) support this institutionalist thesis very strongly. 
The  learning  region  -  including  the  actors  in  vocational  and  professional 
training -  is, in this perspective, a developmental coalition. 

together  with 

related 

the 

The  formal  infrastructure  of  training  institutions,  or  more  exactly  the 
personal  networks  created  among their  trainees, can significantly  contribute 
to the creation of trust in the region, though there is a need for other forms of 
trust  and trust  creation  if this  is to function  properly.  Following  Sabel  (1992) 
we could  speak  here  about  a sort  of  'studied trust' promoted  by the training 

Skill  markets  in a learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

267 

networks.  Naturally,  we  will  be  unable  to  preserve  a  reasonable  degree  of 
trust without  a minimum  of social cohesion, and skills  represent  an  important 
means  from this  point  of view. 

We  could  operate  here  with  a  concept  of  social  capital  as  a  structural 
property  of  larger  groups  (Woolcock,  1998)  underlining  that  not  all  cultural 
settings  automatically  represent  it.  But  there  is  still  an  open  question:  how 
fragmented  are  the  obligations,  expectations  and  norms  governing  the 
behaviour  of  individuals  in a post-socialist  society  in this  respect? 

With  regard  to  the  Hungarian  or  other  central  and  eastern  European 
economies,  the  concept  of  'learning  regions' could  be  used  in  two  different 
ways.  The  first  approach  emphasises  the  role  played  by  collective  learning 
and  cooperation  in  territorial  clusters  and  networks  in  order  to  promote  the 
local  (national)  firms  in the  global  learning  economy.  The  second  approach 
conceptualises  learning  regions  as territorially  based  development  coalitions 
with  intra- and interfirm  learning  organisations  (Asheim, 2000). 

2.  Skills  supply  and  vocational  training  in 

transition 

Since the  early  1990s, the  CEECs  moving  to  democratic  market  economies 
have  faced  radical  socio-economic  change.  In  all  countries  the  number  of 
workers  employed  in  industry  was  reduced.  The  reduction  in  the  labour 
market  in  Hungary  was  more  substantial  than  in  the  other  countries  of  the 
region. 

Dividing the industries of the transition economies according to the Neven-
scheme  into five clusters  (1) by the capital and skill intensity  of  labour  (Kaitila, 
2001,  p.  21-22)  results  in  a detailed  map  of  skill  intensity  in the  region. The 
comparative  advantage  of  countries  revealed  in this way  reflects  the  quality 
of  labour  employed  by the  specific  industries. The  peculiarities  of skill  needs 
in  Hungarian  enterprises  can  then  be  interpreted  using  Kaitila's  (2001)  data 
referring to the  broader  central  and eastern  European  context. 

We  see that  in  1998 Category  4  (relatively  capital-intensive  industries  but 
with low skill-intensity  of  labour) emerges  as the most important  cluster  in the 
region. The share  of that category  varies between 24% in  Romania and 73% 

(')  Category  1 are  high-tech  industries  intensive  in  human  capital. Category  2  uses  intensive  human 
capital  with  little  physical  capital.  Category  3  is  intensive  in  labour  with  relatively  little  physical 
capital.  Category  4  includes  industries  intensive  both  in  labour  and  capital.  Category  5  includes 
food-processing  industries  (see  Kaitila, 2001, p. 21). 

268 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

in Latvia (not in Table 1) with the 40% of Hungary in between. Combining 
categories 3 and 4, the low­skills intensive industries emerge as dominant 
parts of the national economy representing 58% in Hungary. Category 1 is 
quite pronounced for this country as well. Regarding the comparative 
advantage of this economy, Category 2 is also important. Category 3, with 
low intensity in skills and capital, has experienced a significant decline since 
1993 (Table 1). The country has moved significantly towards a model with 
increased skill­intensity in its comparative advantage (at the same time 
adding to its capital intensity, but this is not a major point for our arguments 
in this paper). 

Table 1. Industrial dynamics in central European transition 

economies, 1998, 1993-98 (%) 

Category 1 

Category 2 

Category 3 

Category 4 ' 

Category 5 

'Category 3-4^ 

1998 

Hungary 

Czech Republic 

Poland 

Romania 

Slovakia 

1993-1998 

Hungary 

Czech Republic 

Poland 

Romania 

Slovakia 

25.3 

5.2 

6.9 

1.6 

6.5 

15.9 

-2.1 

1.3 

-1.3 

-1.0 

15.5 

19.2 

8.1 

6.2 

10.9 

3.0 

7.3 

2.0 

2.9 

3.8 

18.1 

14.7 

33.0 

66.9 

19.5 

-20.8 

­12.3 

-8.8 

-2.6 

­14.1 

39.9 

58.7 

45.4 

24.4 

60.4 

6.1 

10.8 

7.6 

2.7 

17.2 

1.2 

2.2 

6.6 

0.9 

2.7 

-4.1 

-3.7 

-2.1 

-1.7 

-5.9 

58.0 

73.4 

78.4 

91.3 

79.9 

­14.7 

-1.5 

­1.2 

0.0 

3.1 , 

Λ/ß: Category 1: high­tech and human capital intensive industries; category 2: human capital intensive with little 

physical capital; category 3: labour intensive with relatively little physical capital; category 4: both labour and 
capital intensive industries; category 5: food­processing industries. 

Source: Kaitila, 2001, p. 23. 

Starting from the last wave of modernisation, lasting from the 1960s until 

the1970s, countries of the region have witnessed an increase of labour 
market participants obtaining secondary and higher educational 
qualifications. The changes in Hungary in comparison with countries in other 
regions, especially in south­eastern Europe, are not very positive in this 

Skill markets in a learning society: transformation 
and vocational reforms in Hungary 

269 

respect (Table 2). However, 76% of the age group 30-39 years obtained at 
least upper secondary level in 1998 compared with the EU average of 65.8% 
in 1999 (ETF, Key indicators, 2001, p. 4). During the 1996-1998 period the 
educational attainment level in the 25-29 category did not change 
significantly in CEECs. 

Table 2. Educational attainment of the population by age groups, 

central European countries 1998 (%) 

Level of 
education 

ISCED 3 

ISCED 5-7 

At least 

Hungary 

Czech Republic 

Slovakia 

Romania 

50-59 Λ 30-39 50-59 ' 30-39 r 50-59 Τ 3 0 - 3 9 ^ 5 0 - 5 9^ 30-39^' 

^ ^ ■ ^P 

. . 

33 

13 

46 

62 

14 

76 

71 

80 

78 

12 

90 

25 

10 

35 

37 

10 

47 

59 

67 

79 

10 

89 

28 

16 

44 

30-39 

73 

12 

85 

ISCED 3 - upper secondary education; ISCED 5-7 - higher education. 

Source: ETF. Key indicators, 2001, p. 4. 

The CEEC average participation rate for vocational training by14-16 year-
olds in the 1990s (varying between 40-70%) was significantly higher than the 
EU average (22% in 1996) due to the fact that in central and eastern Europe 
15-16 years is the most common age for entering the vocational education 
system. The Hungarian data in that respect are in line with the median of this 
region. 

3. State-socialist prehistories: 

a debate about 

skills 

A certain kind of skills discussion was already taking place in Hungary in the 
1980s. The problem of skills mismatches was at the core of emerging 
debates on the (in)efficiency of the existing (at that time) state socialist order. 
The skills problem is - in different (in)direct forms - also present today, a 
major focus being the overeducation of the population in comparison to the 
actual needs of industry. In the former regime local skill supply was mainly 
judged as of high quality. Critics analysing the demand-supply imbalance of 
that time were usually critical not just of the supply structure but also of the 
rigid demand side Which underestimated the human talent and skills of the 

270 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

available  labour force. This  led to general  criticism  of the governance  of the 
late command  economy. 

The  debate  was  concentrated  on  the  underutilisation  of  higher 
professional  and  technical  skills,  the  absence,  or  unequal  presence,  of 
managerial  skills  and  the  unsatisfactory  development  of  foreign  language 
and  other  cross-cultural  communication  skills.  The  oversupply  -  or  more 
exactly the perception of  it - can be understood  in hindsight  as positive, as a 
resource  for  future  growth  and  development  of  society  after  radical  reform. 
The  reform  proposals  of  the  late  1980s,  examining  the  importance  of  skills 
held  by  individuals,  usually  considered  the  relationships  between  skills  and 
outcomes  at the  national  level. Systematic  studies of the problem were very 
rare,  almost  nonexistent,  and  if  they  were  done,  typically  did  not  indicate 
which  particular  skills  could  be  most  productive,  or  would  be  after  the 
reforms.  Very  few  studies  attempted  to  evaluate  the  effect  of  specific  skills, 
such  as  those  of  technologists  in  engineering  industries,  economists  and 
lawyers  in  company  management  in  the  planned  economy,  or  changes  in 
skills of female workers  and their career  strategies. 

The traditional skills demand approaches of the former state socialist years 
are  still  present.  However,  rigid  manpower  planning  had  disappeared,  and 
there  is  no longer faith  in the  accuracy  of forecasts  about  the volume  of new 
entries  to  a  given  occupation.  However,  the  ministries  (of  education  and 
labour) - determining the needs of the national economy - continued to control 
enrolment  into  and  graduation  from  educational  institutions.  Until the  1980s, 
internal  power  plays  in  schools  and  colleges  focused  on  officially  forecast 
student  numbers  in  the  departmental  profile.  Existing  departments  in  higher 
education  -  partly  as  a  result  of  this  situation  -  were  subdivided  into 
departments  with  their  own  'speciality'  (a  degree  profile  of  its  own  on 
graduation from the school), and those which were forced to survive without it. 
Low  skills  vocational  training  policies,  due  to the  more  moderate  or  less 
expressed symbolic value of training, were  less directly  performed, but were 
guided  by  school  interests  almost  as  strongly  as  in  higher  education. The 
'school -  industrial  ministry -  national  educational  administration' triangle of 
interests  in  establishing  new  programmes  was  usually  guided  behind  the 
scenes, or at least  influenced  by the interest  of the educational institution. 

The  major  theme for  educational  policy  debates  of  that  time  was  not the 
skill supply  problem  (no-one  really  believed  in the  existence  of  a significant 
skill  demand  on  the  part  of  the  national  economy)  but  the  simultaneous 
unilinearity  and  multi-linearity  of  the  educational  system,  both  on  entry  to 
traditional vocational training for school leavers and inside higher  educational 
institutions. 

Skill  markets  in a  learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

271 

The  system, developed  from  the  1950s  until the  1960s, was  multi-linear  at 
the starting points of vocational training and unilinear in its philosophy  in higher 
education.  The  reforms  tried  to  integrate,  but  also  differentiate,  the  system  -
referring to existing skill profiles, but  not seriously  measuring them. They tried 
to  incorporate  vocational  training  institutions  into  the  'normal'  secondary 
educational  level.  Vocational-secondary  schools,  already  established  in  the 
1970s,  in  principle  offered  graduation  examinations  preparing  for  college 
entrance  examinations  in  combination  with  the  traditional  vocational  training. 
The  over-ambitious  goals  regarding  quality  were  never  reached  by  those 
schools. So, debates  about the possible compromises  leading to  better-suited 
skills  packages  continued  into the  1990s.  However,  those  ideological  motives 
underlying temporary attempts in some socialist countries, like the former GDR 
or  Romania, to  accommodate  the  vocational  moment  in  different  forms  in an 
integrated secondary system were not present in Hungary. The traditional skills 
transmitted  by vocational  schools were  not at  all  identified  by serious  experts 
influencing the policies  on 'working class' life experiences,  incorporating  some 
higher  ideological  meaning  for the  prospective  pupils. The  debates  about  the 
vocational dimension  of the  system, in this case, were just  pragmatic. 

From the  late  1980s  we  observed  a  new trend, with  changes  of the  wage 
inequality  driven  by changes  in the supply  and demand for  skills.  But  it is still 
hard to  argue  that the  reduction  of  wage  inequality  was  a result  of  the  rapid 
rise  in  the  supply  of  skills  in  the  1980s  (as  measured  by  educational 
attainment) while the subsequent  rise of wage inequality in the 1990s was due 
to a new  demand  structure for  skills  (as  measured  by the  industrial  structure 
and  occupational  shifts).  Some  theories  try  to  explain  the  change  using 
political-environmental  arguments  (transformation  returns  the  country  to  the 
traditional,  'pre-communist'  international  division  of  labour,  etc).  Of  those 
theories using non-political  elements two are advanced  more frequently (e.g. 
Berman  et  al., 1994; Wood,  1994). One  holds that  skill-biased  technological 
change  and  especially  the  arrival  of  multinational  corporations  in the  1990s 
increased  the  demand  for  skilled  personnel.  According  to  the  alternative 
explanation, increased international trade, with the opening the of central and 
eastern  European  economies,  destroyed  manufacturing  potential  for  low-
skilled  industrial  goods  in different  sectors  (like  food  processing  or  clothing 
industry)  which  increased  the  demand  for  unskilled  workers,  generating  the 
main force  behind the  rise of wage inequality. The  skills supply-demand  ratio 
could  be  characterised  by the  qualifications-wage  relationship  of the  1990s. 
While  normally  the  level  of  education  can  increase  wage  level  substantially, 
the data show that  in this general  stratification  perspective the  labour  market 
was  not too  sensitive to qualifications  (see Table 3). 

272 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 3.  Differences in relative wages by educational level of employees 
in the Hungarian competitive and budget sectors 1998 
(average of the national economy = 100%) 

Educational 
level 

Γ Competitive J 
sectors 

Public ^ 
sectors 

8­years primary school 

Vocational school 

Secondary vocational 

Secondary grammar 

Technician 

College 

University 

Total 

68.7 

80.9 

107.6 

107.6 

134.3 

209.5 

304.9 

104.9 

Source: KSH: A KSH Jelenti, 1999, p. 7. 

53.1 

63.9 

79.8 

81.2 

102.0 

103.7 

156.5 

90.0 

4. Hungarian vocational training strategies 

Vocational training in Hungary was adapted to the structural transformation 
of the 1990s by relatively small and diverse steps, rather than on the basis of 
systematic reform. Training institutions reacted to changes in the national 
economy restructuring the labour market, employment strategies, the 
emerging new ownership structure and the transferred management styles 
and philosophies. After a few years of uncertainty the sector had stabilised by 
the second half of the 1990s. 

In institutions of vocational education (secondary vocational schools, 

apprenticeship schools, other general and special vocational schools, labour 
development centres and commercial training units) there was a general shift 
in emphasis from forms which lead to lower qualifications towards those 
which provide higher ones (Köpeczi­Bocz, 2000, p. 22). Since 1998, 
vocational training can start at the ninth or tenth year of schooling and the 
previous form of apprenticeship is set to disappear in the near future. For a 
number of occupations with more complex skill structures, e.g., for 
electronics technicians, an additional 13th school year is an integral part of 
secondary vocational training. 

In 1997, the government launched a new form of practical post­secondary 
training course, mainly of two years duration, integrated as AIFSZ programs 

Skill  markets  in a learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in Hungary 

273 

(Accredited  Higher  Education  in Schools).  In 1993 the Ministry  of  Education 
reached  an agreement  with  those  sectoral  ministries  in charge  of  various 
vocational  qualifications  about a national  register of vocational  qualifications 
and  the procedures  governing  related  examinations.  Both  the register and 
the  rules  have  been  amended  and modified  several  times  since  (Kopeczi-
Bocz,  2000,  p. 24). The original  register  in  1993  was compiled  in tripartite 
committees  of  employers,  employees 
(unions)  and  government 
representatives.  Its  modification  is  now  in  the  hands  of  a  special 
subcommittee of the OSZT, the National  Council of Vocational  Qualifications. 
The  social  partners,  chambers  of industry  and the state  administration  also 
take  part  in  the  preparation  of  its  decisions.  The  National  Vocational 
Qualification  Register  organises  state-recognised  qualifications  in this  area 
(including  such  parameters  as  organisation  and  duration  of  training, 
requirements for entry  and suggestions  on the theoretical  and practical  parts 
of  it). The  structure  of the skills  supply  in a quantitative  sense, therefore, is 
fixed by the register. 

The  number  of  qualifications  included  is  changing  continuously  but  the 
modifications  are  not  too  significant. (2)  During  the  mid-1990s  a  new 
unification  of  the  system  took  place  based  on  the  requirements  of the 
Register  with the mandatory  introduction  of a new  central  curriculum  from 1 
September,  1998.  In most  cases, the duration  of training  is two years. The 
pre-qualification  level of the  programmes  has not changed to any significant 
degree  during  this  period.  In 1996  a total  of 47 of the qualifications  did  not 
require  pre-qualifications; in 1999 this figure was 43.  Elementary  school pre-
qualifications  were  required  in 1996 for 412, and 407  qualifications  in 1999. 
Secondary  and  higher  degrees  were  pre-requisite  for  463  and  11 
qualifications  respectively  in  1996,  and 492 and 9 in  1999 (Köpeczi-Bocz, 
2000, p.  53). 

At  the  same  time,  as  a  result  of  the  economic  transformation  and 
privatisation,  the  total  number  of  practical  training  places/enrolments  (in 
apprenticeship  schools,  in  companies,  outside  the  school  system) 
fell 
dramatically,  by about  50%  between  1990 and 1998 (Table  4). Vocational 
training  was,  to a  certain  degree,  integrated  into  general  public  education 
(e.g. its supervision was transferred from branch  ministries to the  educational 
administration, a special fund was created). Nevertheless, with the  exception 
of  short-time  retraining  programmes,  responsible  actors  in  the  business 
sector  and  economic  policy  makers  generally  lost  interest  in the vocational 

(2)  In  1993, 955; in  1996, 933;  in  1999, 951; and  in 2000, 932  vocational  qualifications  were  listed. 

274 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

training problem. The general feeling among the business elite seemed to be 
that 
if  a  government  body  was  interested  in  the  coordination  and 
maintenance  of the system, it should be left solely  in charge. As long as the 
system  functioned  more  or  less  according  to  its  basic  mandate,  the  new 
business  elite was  ready to  use  it as a service  (believing that the transfer of 
obligatory  fees  as  a percentage  of  their  gross  wage costs  to the  Vocational 
Training  Fund  (VTF)  was  already  paying  for  it).  The  VTF  transfer  now 
amounts  to  approximately  one third  of  enterprise  contributions  to  vocational 
training.  During  the  1990s,  the  total  value  of  local  training  by  companies 
slightly  decreased,  allowing  for  inflation,  but  direct  subsidies  to  schools 
increased substantially,  mainly as a result of donation of  equipment. 

Table 4.  Hungarian  vocational training: structural  changes 

1990/91  -1997/98 

Training 

l· 

Enrolment numbers 

Τ 

/  Enrolment (%) 

Τ 

1990/91  Τ 

1997/98  ^ 

1990/91  y 

1997/98  ^ 

Heavy industry 

Light  industry 

Trade 

Construction 

Agriculture, food  processing 

Catering 

Transport, other  services 

79 975 

40 787 

25 679 

23 753 

18 586 

10 287 

10 304 

44 015 

23 075 

17 324 

13 945 

12 028 

12 022 

10 228 

38.2 

19.5 

12.3 

11.3 

8.9 

4.9 

4.9 

33.2 

17.4 

13.1 

10.5 

9.1 

9.0 

7.7 

Total 

209 371 

132 637 

100.0 

100.0 

Source:  Benedek, 1999. 

In the  last  four  to  five  years  significant  improvements  have  taken  place, 
adding  different  open  vocational  and  professional  training  forms  to  the 
existing  system.  Up  to  March  1998,  1024  organisations  received  a  state 
certificate, allowing them to engage in vocational training. Of these, 37% are 
supported by publicly funded schools, colleges, state-owned training centres, 
12.4%  by  non-profit  institutions,  and  50.5% are  represented  by  commercial 
firms.  Some  75%  of  the  institutions  listed  in  the  official  records  of  the 
authorities are engaged  in training  as their core  activity. 

The  National  Statistical  Data  Collection  Programme  recorded  that,  in 
1998, 16% of the people involved in this form of training were funded by their 

Skill  markets  in a learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

275 

own  resources  (i.e. paid tuition  fees).  Fees were  paid  by employers  for  11%, 
the  Labour  Centre for  18% and  by  the  VET  contracts  in 4% of  the  cases. A 
total  of  5 1% of  the  answers  indicated  other  sources  (which  means  that,  in 
most  cases, they  did  not want to  answer  at all). 

At present, it is difficult to name the main motives for the reforms: the  need 
internationally  widespread  forms  of  training,  or  the 
to  put  in  place 
disinterestedness  of  the  new  business  elites  in  non-core  activities  in  their 
enterprises.  In more  general  terms, the  socialist  enterprises  before  1989, in 
addition  to  their  primary  production  functions,  played  important  roles  in 
training, welfare and recreation. As much as they could without disturbing the 
social peace inside the factories, the  new owners tried to abolish  a good part 
of  those  non-primary  production  related  services.  Vocational  training  was 
affected  by  that  tendency  as  well.  However  the  number  of  training  units, 
especially  in the economically  more advanced  regions, started to grow  again 
in the late 1990s. The maintenance  of their quality standards is carried out by 
the  chambers  of trade  or  industry. 

During the  reforms of the vocational training  systems  in  1999, compulsory 
schooling  was  increased  to  18 years  for  new  entrants.  In the  new  scheme, 
vocational specialisation takes place after  16 years, so the old apprenticeship 
system will gradually  disappear. 

A  National  Evaluation  and  Examinations  Centre,  together  with  a  network 
of  regional offices, was set up in  1999 to provide quality  control of  vocational 
training. 

The  initial system  continues  to  move  away  from  one  offering  mainly  basic 
vocational training to a structure providing intermediate and higher  vocational 
education. The  characteristics  of this  are  later  specialisation, combination  of 
a curriculum  leading  to  upper  secondary  school  examination  with  traditional 
vocational  training, and  development  of  post  secondary  technical  education 
programmes. 

The  regulations  from  2000  increased  the  employer's  contribution  to  the 
Vocational Training  Fund to  0.5% of the  1.5%  levy  (up from 0.2%)  which  the 
companies  can  retain to train their  own  employees. 

Since  1999  a  Register  of  National  Vocational  Qualifications  has  provided 
a  standard  for  all  vocational  training  inside  and  outside  of  the  public 
education  system. An Adult  Education Act  is under  preparation. 

The  whole  education  sector  is  influenced  by  the  basic  fact  that,  with  the 
general decline  of the  population, the number  of children entering  secondary 
education  has  been  declining  every  year.  In  1997-1998  one  third  of  young 
people  in secondary  schools  attended  'uni-prep' grammar  schools  and  two-
thirds  secondary  vocational  schools.  However,  the older-type  apprenticeship 

276 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

schools  during  the  1990s  remained  important  parts  of  the  training  system. 
While the number of school-leaving students in vocational secondary schools 
was  growing  (despite  the  decreasing  number  of  students  in  the  whole 
educational  system)  from  28  701  in  1991/92  to  43  930  in  1998/99,  the 
relevant  numbers  for  apprenticeship  institutions  were  51  558  and 38 871 in 
the  same  years.  A  significant  proportion  of  those  attending  the  vocational 
higher  education  continued  their  studies  in  the  college  system,  with  the 
number  of  students  starting  to  increase  rapidly  in the  late  1990s  (e.g. from 
199  000  in  1996  to  258  000  in  1998).  While  the  number  of  students  in 
increased 
technical,  economic  and  commerce  schools 
industrial, 
significantly,  it  declined  substantially  in  the  agriculture  and  health-related 
fields  (Köpeczi-Bocz,  2000, p. 30). 

The  skill  sets  of  the  Romany  groups  -  the  largest  ethnic  minority  in 
Hungary,  representing  5-7%  of  the  entire  population  -  is  different  from  that 
presented by the average population. The dropout rates for Romany students 
show  a  certain  improvement  in  recent  years.  However,  even  in  the  early 
1990s, of a given generation of first year pupils more children dropped out of 
primary  school  than  successfully  completed  it.  The  proportion  of  Romany 
children  enrolled  in secondary  schools  during the  1990s was declining, in a 
period  in which among the general population the number  of students  in the 
secondary  school  is increasing  significantly. 

Table  5  shows  the  changing  qualification  structures  of  employed  and 
unemployed  people.  Compared  to  those  with  higher  education,  the  risk of 
unemployment  is  approximately  2.5  times  as  high  for  those  who  have 
completed  education  at  secondary  grammar  or  other  school, four  times  for 
those  with  vocational  secondary  school  degrees  and  six  times  as  high  for 
those who  only completed primary  school  (Köpeczi-Bocz, 2000, p. 35). 

Among  the  registered  unemployed,  more than  40% had attended  to only 
eight classes of primary school or less, while among those unemployed at the 
beginning of their career, lower qualifications represented a total of 25%. This 
indicated  that  the  strategies  among  the  registered  unemployed  were,  to  a 
certain  degree,  different  between  generations.  In  1998, those  registered as 
unemployed  at  the  beginning  of  their  career  included  3.2%  whose  school 
qualifications  were  less than  eight  school  years; 4.4% who  finished  primary 
school;  6%  who  finished  vocational  school;  and  6.7%  from  the  group  with 
higher educational degrees  (Köpeczi-Bocz, 2000, p. 51). 

In 1997, 16.3% of young people  leaving school  had completed college, or 
university  degrees,  though,  in  the  same  year,  so  had  5.3%  of  registered 
unemployed  school  leavers. An opposite trend could be observed with other 
qualification  levels,  with  11.7% of  school  leavers  completing  grammar,  and 

Skill  markets  in a learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in Hungary 

277 

20.5% vocational  secondary  schools.  However,  at this  time  16% of the first, 
and  23.6%  of the second  qualification  groups  were  registered  among the 
school-leaving  unemployed. 

Table 5.  Employed  and  unemployed  persons  by educational 

attainment,  Hungary  1992-98 (%) 

Uncompleted  Completed 

primary 
school 

primary 
school 

Apprentice  Grammar or 
or vocational  other  second,  or university 
school 

College 

degree 

school 

Employed persons 

1992 

1995 

1998 

3.5 

1.3 

0.8 

Unemployed persons 

1992 

1995 

1998 

6.8 

4.1 

4.2 

Unemployment  rates 

1992 

1995 

1998 

17.5 

26.2 

29.2 

Source:  C SO LFS. 

25.6 

22.3 

21.2 

37.4 

34.9 

34.2 

13.9 

15.2 

11.7 

26.8 

30.2 

30.7 

31.8 

36.7 

33.7 

11.6 

12.3 

8.3 

29.6 

30.7 

31.3 

20.4 

20.3 

23.9 

7.1 

7.1 

5.9 

14.5 

15.4 

16.0 

3.6 

4.1 

3.9 

2.7 

3.0 

1.9 

100.0 

4  025.7 

100.0 

3  622.8 

100.0 

3  693.3 

100.0 

444.2 

100.0 

100.0 

416.5 

302.8 

9.9 

10.3 

7.6 

-
-

J 

5.  Special  skill  markets 

The  special  skills  most  appreciated  in the  labour  market  are managerial, 
computer  related,  and foreign  languages.  During  the 1990s  a  market was 
emerging  for  special  training  courses  on  these  subjects,  both  inside and 
outside of the general  educational  programmes. 

Most  larger  companies,  and  practically  all  multinational  high  tech 
manufacturers,  retrain their  managers within the enterprise; major firms  have 
their  own educational  departments. According to a survey, the  percentage of 
wages spent on training varies from 0.4% to 6.5%: the agricultural  processing 
industry spends 0.4%; the public service sector  spends  1.5-2%; the chemical 
industry  1.6%; and heavy  industry  2-3%. As the most  serious  spenders, the 
electronics  industry  and the financial  sector  are worthy of mention. 

278 Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

The relationship between in­house training and those courses offered by 

external providers varies in different branches. In addition to the 
technological and management traditions of the sectors, the position of local 
providers and their special arrangements with leaders of human 
management services inside enterprises are the most important factors 
explaining the local organisational differences in training. The differences are 
not segregated along high­tech/low­tech lines. In the most important 
Hungarian technology­intensive sectors, e.g. electronics, the majority of 
programmes are provided in­house. In contrast, the pharmaceutical 
industry's programmes are carried out by external providers. In the car import 
industry they are usually in­house but in the agricultural sector they are 
largely supplied by external providers. 

International surveys of student achievements could be also used as 

important maps of skills in the student population. Data generated in the 1995 
IEA TIMSS survey show ambivalent results for Hungary (Table 6). 
Mathematical and science skills were measured among fourth grade pupils 
and school leavers. While in this international comparison Hungarian results 
are good among the youngest groups, they are well below the international 
average for the school leavers. In this study the mathematical achievements 
of the school leavers were rated 14th and science achievement 18th place 
among 21 nations. Results from the younger classes were much better: the 
fourth grade pupils were 14th from 25 and in the Eighth grade 9th out of 41 
nations. 

Table 6. Mathematical skills measured in the TIMSS survey 

comparative data, scores measured in the distance from the 
international average, 1995 

r Country 

Hungary 

Czech Republic 

USA 

Iceland 

Norway 

New Zealand 

Slovenia 

Austria 

Canada 

Netherlands 

Source: Vàri, 1998. 

3. grade j 

4. grade 1 

7. grade 

r « 8. grade 

Τ school leavers 1 

6 

27 

10 

-60 

-49 

-30 

18 

17 

-1 

23 

19 

38 

16 

-55 

-27 

-30 

23 

30 

3 

48 

18 

29 

-8 

-25 

-23 

-12 

14 

25 

10 

32 

24 

51 

-13 

-26 

-10 

-5 

28 

26 

14 

28 

-17 

-34 

-39 

34 

28 

22 

12 

18 

19 

60 

Skill markets in a learning society: transformation 
and vocational reforms in Hungary 

279 

6. Future prospects for the system 

There are no available comprehensive studies about the future skill needs of 
industry or sub-sectors in the country. However, interested policy makers can 
consult qualitative statements projecting selected international trends 
expected in given industrial or economic sectors into the local conditions. The 
only comprehensive vision of the market is the Educational and human 
capital chapter of the National Technology Foresight exercise in 2000. (4) The 
results of a Delphi expert survey (3) on national human capital prospects 
provided in the framework of this programme would be particularly relevant 
in the context of our investigations. Major factors influencing the condition of 
the Hungarian education system are presented in Table 7. 

Table 7. Factors influencing the actual situation in Hungarian 

education. Delphi expert evaluation, 2000 (% of all 
nominations) 

Scientific- ■ 
technological 
knowledge ' 
and creativity 

innovations 

General lifestyle 

Vocational training 

Public education 

Higher Education 

Total 

-

37.7 

38.9 

36.0 

37.8 

33.0 

34.6 

36.8 

35.6 

35.4 

Systems-Impacts of 

,, 

H level 

27.5 

• 

36.5 

33.8 

34.8 

34.1 

1 

• I, 

uality level 
ungary, total 

quality leve 

26.9 

35.9 

34.1 

35.2 

33.8 

27.7 

36.6 

34.4 

34.6 
34.4 J 

The following ten items are seen as the most probable positive events 
expected to influence the quality of human capital (also represented by the 
skill structure); the supposed year of realisation is given in brackets: 

(3) The programme was provided by the State Committee for Technological Change (later Ministry of 
Education) in 1997-2000. The Working Group for Education Policy was coordinated by Andras 
Semjen. The author was a member of the Steering Committee of the entire National Foresight 
programme, publishing the synthesis country report. 

(4) Some 206 experts took part in the first round of this survey; there were 151 in the second. The 

participants were asked to select events or turning points in trends with the highest probability from 
a larger list, evaluate them as positive or negative and judge the intensity of their social, economic, 
regulatory-administrative (political) and environmental impacts. The experts represented the private 
sector, the research establishment and the governmental machinery. 

280 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

(a)  More  than  90%  of  school  leavers  (including  those  from  the  higher 
education  sector)  should  complete  some  kind  of  vocational  and 
professional training  (2015); 

(b)  communication  skills  in  two  foreign  languages  would  be  part  of  high 

school final examinations  (2013); 

(c)  the  fundamental  equivalence  of  European  vocational  and  professional 

degrees  is basically  accepted  (2012); 

(d)  due to EU accession, resources available for human capital development 

are doubled in the country  (2015); 

(e)  the proportion of  registered  unemployed  in Hungary will be permanently 

under 5% (2013); 

(f)  at least  80% of the  18-19 years  old pass  high school final  examinations 

(spending  12 years in the education system)  (2014); 

(g)  rich multimedia online environments are available in each school (2021); 
(h)  participation  in  different  continuos  educational  and  training  forms  is 

broadly  accepted in the society  (2014); 

(i)  the proportion of GDP spent for higher education  is at least  1.5%  (2013); 
(j)  at  least  83%  of  the  potentially  employable  labour  force  is  actually 

employed  (2014). 

Between  3-9%  of  the  experts  believe  that  these  conditions  are  not 
achievable  at all  in  Hungary. The  limiting factors  mentioned  most  frequently 
as  seriously  affecting  the  realisation  of  these  prospects  are:  population 
structure; lifestyle; public  education  impedes  social and moral  development; 
plus,  in  vocational  and  professional  training,  economic  aspects  (resource 
scarcity). Market limitations are at their highest in vocational training. Political 
regulation,  popular  viewpoints  and  a  'low  distribution-redistribution  profile' 
make  solutions  based  on  lifestyle  modification  especially  problematic.  A 
shortage  of  existing  skills  is the  most  serious  limitation  on  developments  in 
the public school system. Technological  (and  R&D) factors  (their absence or 
non-satisfactory  level)  more  often  govern  vocational  training  and  labour 
market  adaptation  (Table 8 and 9). 

Skill  markets  in a  learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

281 

Table  8.  Most  probable  changes  in the  Hungarian  system  of  vocational 

education.  Delphi factor  evaluation, 2000 (nominations,  %) 

Events-Factors 

Creativity 

Utilisation of 
innovations 

r 

Production, 
services 

Regulation, 
administration 

Standards in  1 
the country, 
total 

90%  of school  leavers  with 
vocational  training 

2 foreign  languages  in  high 
school final  examinations 

European  equivalence 
of vocational  degrees 

2x  larger  resources  in 
human capital  development 
due to  EU membership 

Registered  unemployed 
below  5% 

80%  of the  18-19 year  olds 
with  High  School  diplomas 

Multimedia  demonstration, 

on-line  in each school 
Continuous  education 
broadly  accepted 

1,5%  of the  GDP used 
for  higher  education 

Min 83% of adult  labour 

potential is used 

-

-

-

-

40.5 

41.7 

36.5 

38.6 

38.6 

37.7 

44.0 

43.8 

40.0 

36.8 

37.0 

36.5 

37.3 

40.0 

37.7 

38.2 

-

41.2 

43.8 

40.2 

oc  c 

34.7 

34.2 

38.4 

36.0 

-

-

40.0 

38.6 

37.7 

29.1 

29.5 

32.6 

35.5 

38.4 

36.8 

37.1 

282 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Table 9.  Assessment  of expected  impacts for the vocational  education 

system  in Hungary.  Delphi survey, 2000 (nominations, %) 

Economic 
impact 

Social 
impact 

1 Environmental I 
impact 

Total 
impact 

l 

90% of school leavers with vocational training 

91.1 

93.5 

73.4 

2 foreign languages  in high school 
final examinations 

European equivalence  of vocational degrees 

2x larger  resources  in human capital 
development  due to  EU membership 

Registered  unemployed  below 5% 

80%  of the 18-19 year olds with 
High School diplomas 

Multimedia demonstration, 
on-line  in each school 

Continuous  education  broadly accepted 

1.5%  of the GDP used for  higher  education 

Min 83% of adult labour  potential  is used 

91.8 

90.2 

91.4 

88.3 

87.8 

89.0 

88.5 

86.7 

87.0 

92.5 

91.2 

88.9 

91.3 

67.5 

-

71.3 

61.4 

91.5 

78.3 

90.3 

90.7 

90.5 

89.5 

75.0 

70.6 

70.7 

56.8 

93.1 

93.0 

91.8 

91.3 

91.0 

90.8 

90.8 

90.8 

89.9 
89.6  J 

The  overwhelming  majority  of  the  experts  in  the  survey  believe  that 
changes  in this  area should be based first  of  all on  local  (national)  research 
or  development.  The  proportion  of  those  who  believe  that  'ready-made' 
packages  could  be  obtained  from  the  international  market  or  transferred 
easily  en  bloc  to  Hungary  is  negligible,  although  in  the  higher  education 
group  the  acceptance  of  the  possibility  of  licence  or  know-how  utilisation  is 
higher. 

The  Foresight  exercise  compares  five  possible  future  scenarios  for  the 
system: knowledge  intensive  combining  of private and public sources; state-
dominated  human  capital  development;  human  capital  development  based 
on  private  resources;  a  'dinosaur  model'  of  human  resources  (continued 
structural  underdevelopment);  and  a  'future-oriented  satellite'  situation 
(significant overeducation of workers waiting for a better future without paying 
to  much  attention  to the  actual  situation). The  research  group  compares  all 
five with regard to knowledge intensity, freedom of action, equality  of options, 
social  integration,  the  division  between  state  and  the  private  actors  and 
accessibility  of  resources.  It  ultimately  states  a  preference  for  the  first 
scenario. 

Skill  markets  in a learning  society:  transformation 
and vocational  reforms  in  Hungary 

203 

7.  Conclusions 

Visions  of  an  overeducated,  or  overtrained,  labour  force  easily  available  in 
the labour market are prevalent in the country as myths and still alive in public 
opinion  but  industrial  policy  concepts  are  no  longer  dominated  by  them. 
Decision-makers,  both  in  the  education  and  economic  policy  generally 
consider  that  the skill demand  landscape  is becoming  more fragmented  and 
rapidly  changing.  Therefore,  the  space  for  local  actions  and  solutions  to 
upgrade skill structures  in the last five to six years has expanded  significantly. 
This  does  not  mean that  the  educational  bureaucracy  has  disappeared,  but 
its former  competences  in important  areas  have  been transformed. 

The  appearance  or  modernisation  of  high-tech  sectors  (especially  when 
represented  by  local  divisions  of  multinationals)  in  countries  like  Hungary 
does not automatically  lead to mass upgrading of the labour force. Most skill-
intensive jobs  in high tech  manufacturing  facilities  are  highly specialised  and 
not easily transferable to  other  industries. At the same time, we can  observe 
emerging islands of excellence, especially  in information and  communication 
technologies, 
local 
educational  institutions  (a  well-known  reference  point  in  Hungary  are  the 
cooperative  efforts  of  the  Ericsson  company  with  the  Budapest  Technical 
University  in upgrading  advanced training  facilities). 

in  joint  projects  of  multinational  businesses  and 

In the  education  market  there  is  a significant  demand from the  population 
for  more  training  or,  more  exactly,  for  more  qualification  certificates.  That 
growing  pressure  for  more  diplomas  and  degrees  (from  foreign  language 
certificates  to  PhDs)  is  well  understood  as  a  political  message  by  the 
educational  bureaucracy  and  is  becoming  -  together  with  the  particular 
interests  of  the  administrative  elites  -  the  major  motivational  force  behind 
reform.  At  present,  industrial  interests  for  the  most  part  are  of  secondary 
importance. 

Reforms  of  vocational  education  in  the  country  are  still  dominated  by 
ambitions  relating to  skills supply  side regulation. This does  not mean that  in 
some  sectors,  e.g.  information  technologies,  revealed  demand for  industrial 
skills would  be absent. 

This  case  study  indicates  the  importance  of  skills,  as  bottom-up  building 
elements  of  the  learning  economy,  or  'learning  region'.  The  ambitious, 
upwardly  mobile,  modernising  population,  upgrading  its  own  skills,  is  an 
increasingly  important  element  in  industrial  siting  decisions  of  new  central 
and eastern  European  capitalism. 

284 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

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A demand-side  analysis  of  SME 
skills  needs  in  regions 
of five  candidate  countries 

Lewis Kerr,  European  Training Foundation (ETF) (1), Turin,  Italy 

The paper reports on the objectives,  methodology and findings  of a demand side 
skills survey  in  regions  in five  candidate  countries. The  objectives  of  the  sun'ey 
were: to undertake an in-depth  qualitative assessment  of emerging  regional SME 
skills needs; to examine demand-side perspectives  in the context of local supply-
side infrastructure;  and to prepare the context for the development of intenention 
strategies.  The  exercise  covered  952 small  and  medium  sized  companies  in  15 
sectors  and  five  regions  within  economies  that  are  at  different  stages  of  the 
transition  process.  The  origins  of  the  survey  instrument  employed  lie  in  a 
nationwide exercise carried out in the UK during the course of the 1990s, called the 
Employers Manpower and Skills Practices Sun'ey (EMSPS). 

ï. 

Introduction 

This paper (2) reports on a company skills survey carried out in regions of five 
candidate  countries  during  2001. (3)  The  survey,  which  was  commissioned 
and  managed  by  the  European  Training  Foundation,  had  three  primary 
objectives: 
(a)  to  undertake  an  in-depth,  demand-side  qualitative  assessment  of 
emerging  regional  small  and  medium  sized  enterprise  (SME)  skills 
needs; 

(b)  to  examine  demand-side  perspectives  in the  context  of  local  supply-side 
infrastructure, i.e. the provision of training in the public and private sectors; 

(c)  to prepare the context for the development  of  intervention strategies. 

(')  until July 2002. 
(2)  The paper draws heavily on the Cross-Country  Survey prepared by Jim Twomey of Pion  Economics 

for the  European Training  Foundation. 

(3)  North-West  Bohemia  (Czech  Republic), South  Estonia, South  Great Plain (Hungary), Lithuania and 

Lubelskie  Voivodship  (Poland). 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  In  regions 
of  five  candidate  countries 

287 

2.  The  survey 

The  survey  covered  companies  in  a variety  of  sectors  across  very  different 
regions within economies that are at different stages of the transition process. 
The  regions  have  per-capita  GDP  levels  that  range  from  26%  (Lubelskie 
to  53%  (North-West  Bohemia)  of  EU  15  levels  with  a 
Voivodship) 
corresponding  variation  in employment  profiles. 

A  total  of  952  companies  were  surveyed  in  15  sectors  which  were 
representative  of the companies operating in the respective  regions. With the 
the  companies  surveyed  were 
exception  of  North-West  Bohemia, 
overwhelmingly  small  (less  than  50  employees),  which  again  reflected  the 
norm  in the various  regions. 

The  survey  tool, which was adapted from  a questionnaire  developed  for  a 
similar  survey carried out in North-West  England, comprised six sub  sections 
covering: 
(a)  The workforce  and processes  of change; 
(b)  turnover  of  employees; 
(c)  skills  and  recruitment; 
(d)  training and development  activities; 
(e)  in depth  questions  on the  skills  shortages 

in particular  occupational  groups; 

(f)  beyond the  establishment  -  the  business  environment. 

the  wider 

The  survey  was  based  on  the  premise  that  the  demand  for  skills,  their 
deployment  and  use  by  employers  within  the  productive  processes  are  all 
critical  aspects  of 
regional  development  process.  More 
fundamentally, the basic premise of the survey was that competitive  pressure 
is likely to result  in a gap between the actual and required  performance  of an 
enterprise. This  gap  can  be  bridged  in  a  number  of  ways,  among  them: the 
development  of  new  products;  increasing  market  share;  or  increasing 
efficiency through the introduction of new technologies. Whichever solution is 
adopted  will  result  in  a  gap  between  the  actual  and  required  skills  of  the 
workforce. 

In this context, the  survey  sought to  establish whether firms: 

•  ever  take  stock  of  the  skills  inherent  within  their  workforce  and, if  so, the 

basis  on which that judgement  is made; 

•  ever  consciously  examine  the  skills  of  their  workforce  in  relation  to  the 

development  of  the products they supply  or the  markets they  serve; 

•  whether  SMEs  actively  consider  skills  as  an  element  contributing  to  their 

competitiveness; 

288 

Early identification of skill needs in  Europe 

•  consider the acquisition  of skills  by their workforce as a benefit or cost; 
•  fail  to  recruit  graduates/school 

leavers  due  to  lack  of  awareness, 

accessibility, cost, lack of work experience or other  reasons; and 

•  respond  to  such  issues  differently  depending  on  their  particular  size, 

sector/market  or level of  turnover. 
It  should  be  emphasised  that  the  survey  provided  qualitative  rather  than 
quantitative  data. The sample was too small to allow for a statistically  reliable 
analysis, but the methodology adopted allowed for this. After the initial analysis 
of the findings of the survey, they were presented to focus groups comprising 
the  original  interviewees  and  other  stakeholders  for  verification.  Thus  some 
confidence can be placed in the conclusions drawn from the survey. 

3.  The  operating  environment 

In the course of interviews, firms were asked a number of questions designed 
to provide details about the trading and operating environment  in which they 
function. 

3.1.  Market conditions and financial turnover 
In the  two  years  prior  to  the  exercise,  the  majority  of  organisations  in  the 
survey  regions  indicated a situation of expanding  markets and turnover. The 
only exception, for the former, was in Lubelskie where the proportion of firms 
reporting  market  growth  was  some  30%  in  comparison  to  figures  between 
55%  and  73%  elsewhere.  Figures  for  financial  turnover  also  reflected  a 
generally  favourable  trading  situation  with  a  majority  of  firms  in  each  area 
reporting growth. 

3.2.  Employment  and  productivity 
While  the  trading  environment  for  participating  companies  was  relatively 
buoyant, follow-through to employment was much more muted. Employment 
growth  was  reported  by  between  30% and 40% of firms  across  the  regions 
but this  was  balanced  by  similar  proportions  reporting  employment  loss. In 
the case of South Estonia and Lubelskie, the share of firms indicating decline 
was  marginally  higher than that reporting expansion. 

Much  of  the  employment  loss  took  the  form  of  redundancy  with  large 
numbers of firms reporting this form of separation over the course of the two 
years  preceding  the  survey.  Prospects  for  the  following  two  years  were, 
in  expected 
however,  somewhat  brighter  with  significant  reductions 
redundancies  (Figure  1). 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  in  regions 
of  five candidate  countries 

289 

Figurei.  Redundancy  patterns 

3  Last two years 

Next two years 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

Another  contributory  factor  for  the  employment  profile  was  related  to 
productivity  growth which was cited as highly significant  in all regions  ranging 
from around 50% in Lubelskie and South Great Plain to over 70% in the case 
of  South  Estonia  and  the  North-West  Bohemia.  Figures  of  this  scale  will 
invariably  have impacted to restrain employment growth in the face of  market 
expansion.  Some  productivity  decline was  evident  but was  relatively  limited. 

3.3.  Competitive  response 
There  was  evidence  that  firms  in  the  survey  regions  had  responded  to  the 
dynamics of the trading environment by attempting tö improve their competitive 
position in the market place. There  had been some attention to product  design 
but  more  emphasis  had generally  been  placed  on  product/service  range  and 
quality  -  between  50% and  7 1%  of  companies  reported  attempts  to  increase 
their  product/service  range  and  75% to  93%  reported  increased  attention  to 
quality. Some 70% to 80% of firms had introduced  new products/services  (the 
figure  for  Lubelskie  was  somewhat  lower  than  elsewhere  at  40%)  though 
much  of  this  activity  had  focussed  on  existing  ranges  or  related  fields. 
Significantly 
fewer  numbers  of  firms  had  introduced  completely  new 
products/services  despite four out of the five regions reporting  more than 20% 
of organisations  with some form  of  R&D activity  on-site. 

Companies  had also  introduced  changes  in order  to  reduce  costs,  further 
promote  productivity and improve quality. Between 70% and 80% had sought 
to  lower  costs  and to  increase  productivity  but  between  80% and  90%  had 
sought  to  improve  quality.  There  was  some  variation  across  regions  but  the 
profiles are all  consistent. 

290 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

3.4.  Competitive  Priorities 
The  importance  attached to  quality  and  quality  improvements  within  survey 
organisations  was  reflected  in the  findings  of  questions  that  sought  to  elicit 
the  relative  weight  attached  to  key  competitiveness  factors  such  as  price, 
quality,  responding  to  customers,  marketing  and  advertising,  product 
differentiation  and availability/delivery. 

Weighting the reported results by the numbers of firms in each region, the 
dominant  factor  was  defined  as  quality  with  an average  rating  of  93%. This 
was 
(75%), 
followed  by 
(49%)  and  product 
availability/delivery 
differentiation  (42%). 

responding 
(71%),  marketing/advertising 

to  customers 

(84%),  price 

It is difficult to make observations with just five cases, but there was some 
evidence  to  suggest  that  while  organisations  in  all  regions  attach  great 
importance to quality, more  importance was attached by those who  export a 
higher  proportion  of their  goods  and  services. There  was  no such  evidence 
with regard to price or marketing/advertising, but some moderate evidence of 
links between  exporting, product differentiation  and  availability/delivery. 

Organisational  change 

Alongside  more  detailed  questions  about  skills  and training  issues  that  are 
discussed  in  later  sections,  the  initial  review  of  trading  context  attempts  to 
examine  whether  the  variety  of  market  pressures  that  organisations  have 
been subject to have promoted any particular  set of organisational changes. 
Overall,  the  most  common  form  of  change  appears  to  have  been  job 
interchange  though  significant  variation  was  present  between  regions. This 
was  followed  by  introduction  of  Total  Quality  Management  (TQM),  multi-
skilling and job redesign. Adoption of just-in-time scheduling  ranks low on the 
list of responses. 

3.6.  Human  resource development  response 
Precisely  how this profile of change feeds back into generic  human  resource 
development  (HRD)  was  investigated  by another  series  of survey  questions 
which  invited  organisations  to  indicate  the  nature  of  management  focus on 
employee development. The dominant HRD activity across the set of regions 
as a whole  had  been to develop  employees  for  improved  customer  service. 
This  was  followed  closely,  however,  by  the  desire  to  raise  general 
competence and promotion of  teamwork. 

Asked to evaluate whether their general workforce met their organisational 
needs, the proportion  indicating that the workforce was a major strength lies 
at  around  40%  for  South  Great  Plain  and  Lubelskie,  30%  for  North-West 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME skills  needs  in  regions 
of  five  candidate  countries 

291 

Bohemia,  17%  for  Lithuania  and  12% for  South  Estonia  (Figure  2).  Such 
figures  would  tend to  indicate  that  substantial  numbers  of  employers  across 
the  regions  believe  that  scope  exists  to  improve  the  capabilities  and 
contribution  of their  current  workforce. 

Figure 2 also reports the proportions of employers who perceive the quality 
of  their  workforce  to  be  better  than  that  of  competitors.  On  the  whole,  this 
tends  to  be  smaller  than  the  proportion  viewing  their  workforce  as  a  major 
strength  indicating  some concern  over  workforce  quality. 

Figure  2.  Workforce  quality 

50% 

45% 

"2  Major strength 

Better than competitors 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

4.  Skills  and  recruitment 

Having established  a series  of contextual  parameters, the survey  instrument 
focused  on specific  issues  relating to  skills  and  skills  shortages. 

4.1.  Occupational  change  and  labour  turnover 
The  nature  of  the  profiles  suggests  that  many  organisations  had  been 
undergoing  a  sustained  process  of  development  in  recent  years.  This  is 
generally  reinforced  by the  number  of companies who  reported  experiencing 
their 
a  change 
organisations.  Over  50%  of  companies  in  South  Estonia,  Lithuania  and 
Lubelskie  reported such change though the figures for the South  Great  Plain 
and  North-West  Bohemia  are  lower  at 33% and 25%. 

the  distribution  of  occupations 

internally  within 

in 

Employee  turnover  levels  were  relatively  moderate  in  most  instances  but 
there  is  evidence  that  some  employers  were facing  difficulties.  Over  20% of 

292 

Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

companies  in  South  Estonia  and  South  Great  Plain  areas  reported  labour 
turnover  greater  than  expected. This  is broadly  double that  in Lithuania and 
Lubelskie and North-West  Bohemia. 

Problem  occupations,  in terms  of turnover,  appear  remarkably  consistent 
across all five regions. Elementary occupations, craft and plant and machine 
operators are the most common. 

Skills  requirements  and  shortages 

There  is  widespread  recognition  among  survey  companies  that  the  skills 
required  of  their  workforces  have  increased  over  the  last  two  years.  A 
minimum of 80% and a maximum of 95% of firms acknowledge that demands 
placed on the skill-sets  of employees  have increased  (Figure 3). 

Figure 3.  Increasing  skill  requirements 

ι Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

This is generally reinforced by the proportion of organisations ranking skills 
as 'very important'. What is interesting, however, is to compare the difference 
between  the  proportion  of firms  ranking their workforce  as  a major  strength 
and the  proportion  ranking  skills  as very  important.  Figure  4 shows that the 
latter  generally  exceeds  the  former  by  a  significant  margin  suggesting  that 
employers  have some concerns about the skills capability  of their workforce. 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  in  regions 
of  five candidate  countries 

293 

Figure 4.  Workforce skills  capability 

100% 

I 

I  Worklorce is major strength 

Skills are very important 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

Confirmation  of  these  concerns  is  given  through  estimates  of  skills 
shortages  which  are  defined  as  situations  where  employers  have  not  been 
able  to  identify  anyone  in  the  labour  market  with  appropriate  skills  to 
undertake  a  specific  task  or  have  been  'making  do'  with  existing  but 
inappropriately  skilled staff.  Between 28% and 65% of employers  report such 
shortages  suggesting  that  between  1 in  4  and  1 in  2  employers  are  facing 
difficulties.  Even at the lower  end of the spectrum, these  are  not  insignificant 
magnitudes  and  suggest  that  the  competitiveness  of  firms  in  all  regions  is 
being constrained. 

The occupations  creating difficulties  are  again  relatively  consistent  across 
the  set  of  regions  participating  in  the  exercise.  Craft  occupations  are 
identified  by  four  of  the  five  regions, technical  occupations  are  identified  by 
three  regions  and  service/sales  and  professional  occupations  are  identified 
by two regions. The skills identified as being in particular  short supply  include 
technical  skills, communication  skills,  language  and  creativity. 

Figures 5 and 6 provide a simple  cross-tabulation  between the  proportions 
of  employers  reporting  skills  shortages  and the  proportions  reporting  market 
and  productivity  growth.  It  is  difficult  with  only  five  observations,  and  some 
care  should  be  taken  in  assigning  causality,  but  there  exists  prima-facie 
in  organisations 
evidence  that  skills  shortages  are  more  pronounced 
experiencing strong market and productivity growth. Such a conclusion tends 
to  be  given  a  degree  of  support  in  those  regional  reports  that  undertake  a 
similar  exercise. 

294 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Figure 5.  Skills shortage and market  growth 

70 

60 

SII 

40 

3η 

S? 

eu 
Γ­
η 
o 

<v 
-α 

ro 

Οϊ 

20 

South Esthonia  O 

SG Plain 

Lithuania  CV 

O 

Lubelskie 

O 

NW  Bohemia 

1= 

^ 

10 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Market expansion (%) 

J 

Figure 6.  Skills shortage and productivity  growth 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

O 
South Esthonia 

O  Lithuania 

r\  MW Bohemia 

υ 

SG Plain 
O 

Ο 

Lubelskie 

to 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

Productivity expansion (%) 

4.3.  Skills  assessment 
Organisations were asked to indicate whether,  and the frequency with which 
they  undertake  assessment  of  workforce  skills.  The  results  show  some 
variation  between  regions.  In the North-West  Bohemia,  South  Estonia and 
South  Great  Plain samples, some  80% to 90% of employers  claim that they 
have previously  assessed the skills of their workforce. In Lithuania the figure 
is 59% and in Lubelskie 17%. 

Some of the focus group activity  suggests that the high nature of some of 
these figures may reflect employer variation/misunderstanding  of the concept 
of  'skills  assessment'  and indicates  that  some  care  should  be  taken  in 

A demand-side  analysis of SME  skills  needs  in regions 
of  five candidate  countries 

295 

interpreting this attribute. Figure 7 suggests the not too surprising finding that 
more  extensive  skills  shortages  tend  to be discovered  as higher  levels of 
skills  assessments  are performed. 

Figure 7.  Skills  shortage  and skills  assessment 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

Lubelskie 

South  Esthonia  O 

O  Lithuania 

O  SG Plain 

O 
NW  Bohemia 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

90 

100 

Skills assessment  (%) 

It is instructive  to note  that  the survey  also  enquires  about  the regularity 
with  which  employers  undertake  assessments.  It is, of course, one  thing to 
have undertaken an assessment  but it is another to set in motion  procedures 
to  review  skills  development.  Figure  8  shows  that  the  proportion  of 
companies  undertaking  regular  assessments  is  generally  lower  than  the 
proportion that  have  undertaken  at least  one  assessment. 

Figure 8.  Skills  assessment 

I 

I  Undertaken assessment 

Regular assessment 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

296 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

This is not a surprising finding but there do appear to exist substantial 

differences across regions. The differential is smallest for North-West 
Bohemia where regular assessments are claimed by 90% of all those who 
have ever undertaken an assessment though again some care is required in 
the light of differing interpretations of 'regularity'. 

In terms of capacity to evaluate current and future skills needs, what 
evidence is available suggests that organisations that already had some 
experience in this area tend to feel that they have the internal capacity to 
address the issue and vice versa. Hence 83% of North-West Bohemia firms 
have undertaken an assessment and 88% feel comfortable about capacity in 
this area whereas 17% of Lubelskie firms have undertaken an assessment 
and only 14% feel capable of so doing. It is also interesting to note that 
access to external intelligence on skills is very limited in the case of Lubelskie 
relative to other regions. Overall, there is some suggestion that firms feel a 
little less secure about evaluating future skills needs with positive response 
rates falling by between 10% and 20%. 

4.4. Responsibility for skills development 
With relatively large numbers of firms reporting some degree of prolonged 
skills shortage, the survey exercise invites employers to express their opinion 
as to the nature of responsibility for the development of workforce skills. 
Figure 9 provides the findings of this process. 

Figure 9. Skills responsibility 

100% 

I I Firms □ Government I Employee 

NW Bohemia South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

Variation across the study regions is evident but in most cases employers 
appear to take the view that they are key agents for skills development. Over 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  in  regions 
ol five candidate  countries 

297 

80%  of  employers  in  North-West  Bohemia  and  South  Great  Plain  areas  cite 
themselves  as  bearing  responsibility  with  figures  of  over  60%  for  South 
Estonia  and  around  40%  for  Lithuania.  There  is  a  marked  drop  in  the 
response  from  Lubelskie  where  only  17%  report  in  a  similar  manner.  Such 
variation is not necessarily inconsistent with the differential  nature of the latter 
area evident  in other  responses. 

Alongside  recognition  of their  role, employers  also  believe that  employees 
have an important contribution to  make to their own skills development.  Over 
50%  of  employers  place  some  emphasis  on  employee  own  development  in 
South Estonia, South Great Plain and Lithuania with figures of 40% for North-
West  Bohemia and  10% in  Lubelskie. 

With  the  exception  of  South  Estonia,  the  role  and  responsibility  of 

government  in skills development  is seen  as very  limited. 

4.5  Recruitment  of school-leavers  and  graduates 
Recruitment  of  school  leavers  is  relatively  widespread  across  all  survey 
regions.  When  asked  if  they  have  recruited  any  school  leavers  over  the 
previous  years,  most  regions  report  a figure  between  40% and  55%.  South 
Great  Plain  is  the  exception  in  reporting  a  figure  of  some  78%. The  same 
broad profile exists in terms of university graduate  recruitment -  most  regions 
indicate a figure of some 20% to 25% while South Great  Plain reports a figure 
of  51%. 

It is difficult to  make generalisations  but there  are some  signs that  regions 
with greater skills shortages are relatively  more likely to recruit  school-leavers 
and  university  graduates. To balance this, there  is no significant  evidence of 
a  relationship  between  productivity  growth  and  school-leaver/graduate 
recruitment  which  may  confirm  the  role  of  downsizing  and  capital 
development  in the former  rather  than  any  supply-side  skills  improvement  in 
the  workforce. 

4.6.  Recruitment  and  vacancies 
Information on whether vacancies  have been difficult-to-fill  (DTF) presents an 
interesting contrast to data on skills shortages.  It has been common, in many 
skills  studies,  for  employers  to  interpret  vacancies  that  are  difficult-to-fill  as 
evidence  of  skills  shortage  though  they  may  equally  reflect  the  nature  and 
quality  of employer  attempts  to secure  appropriately  qualified  staff. 

Figure  10 details the skills-shortage/DTF  vacancy  profile. DTF  proportions 
for the North-West  Bohemia and South Estonia regions are relatively  close to 
the  skills-shortage  proportions  (25%  compared  to  30%  for  the  former  and 
57% compared to  65% for the  latter)  with the  result that  one  cannot  rule  out 

298 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

the  role  of  DTF  vacancies  in  determining  claims  of  skills  shortages.  In 
contrast, there exists a substantial difference for Lithuania (23% compared to 
44%)  suggesting  a  clear  indication  of  a  structural  skills  deficit  among 
sampled organisations. 

Figure  10.  Skills shortage and DTF vacancies 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

I0 

O  SG Plain 

Q  Lithuania 

O 
NW Bohemia 

O 
South Esthonia 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

DTF vacancies  (%) 

to 

lower 

relates 

Firms reporting  DTF vacancies were also asked to indicate their impact on 
organisational  performance.  Among  the  subset  of  such  firms,  the  highest 
response 
by 
bottlenecks/reductions  in efficiency and reduced forward planning. Relatively 
few  companies  report  any  significant  impact  in  terms  of  staff  morale. 
Responses to the existence  of DTF vacancies  is dominated by an attempt to 
increase  productivity  and  the  job  range  of  staff  -  making  existing  staff 
achieve/produce  more -  followed  at  some  distance  by  increased  overtime. 
The decision to undertake  more training is relatively limited. 

profitability 

followed 

and 

is 

5.  Training  and  human  resource  development 

Once  the  issue  of  skills  shortages  has  been  investigated,  the  survey 
instrument  turns  to  the  way  in  which  organisations  address  training  and 
general  HRD development. 

5.1.  Provision of training 
Organisations  were  asked  to  report  whether  any  training  and  development 
activities  are  provided  for  employees  above  and  beyond  routine  induction 
and  any  activities  that  are  required  by  specific  legislative  requirements. 

A demand-side analysis of SME skills needs in regions 
of five candidate countries 

299 

Responses  are  generally  high,  ranging  from  some  40%  in  the  case  of 
Lubelskie to some  90% in the case  of South  Estonia. (4) 

Figures  11 and  12, on the other  hand demonstrate that the training  profiles 
reported  are  broadly  consistent  with  a-priori  expectations.  Figure  11  shows 
that  the  proportion  of  organisations  providing  training  within  sample  regions 
increases  in line with the  level  of  market  expansion.  Figure  12 indicates  that 
the same  is broadly  true  in terms  of productivity  growth. 

Figure  11.  Training  and  market  expansion 

100 

É 

80 

S 

60 

40 

M  20 

South Esthonia  O 

SG Plain 

NW Bohemia 

Lithuania  (¿r* 

O Lubelskie 

10 

20 

30 

40 
Market Expansion (%) 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Figure  12.  Training  and  productivity  growth 

100 

E 
a. 
° 

60 

40 

«j  20 

South Esthonia  Q 

NW Bohemia 

o  o 

Lithuania 

SG Plain 
O 

o 

Lubelskie 

20 

40 
60 
Productivity growth (%) 

80 

100 

(")  This  figure  may  be  connected  to  high  import  level  of  capital  equipment  with  associated  supplier 

provided training. 

300 

Early  identification  of  skill  needs  in  Europe 

Figure  13  provides  an  additional  perspective  and  shows,  as  one  might 
expect, an inverse relationship between training provision and assessment of 
workforce  quality.  Where firms  in sample  regions  feel that their workforce  is 
weak  they  appear  to  invest  in  higher  levels  of  training.  Figure  14,  finally, 
suggests  that  firms  also  tend  to  relate  investment  in training  to  the  level of 
perceived  skills  shortage.  Training  proportions  generally  exceed  skills 
shortage  levels  by  a factor  of  some  30% to  40%, the  only  exception  being 
North-West  Bohemia where the excess  is some 100%. 

Figure  13.  Training  and productivity  growth 

100 

O  South Esthonia 

S.  80 
n 
E 
Q. 
-Ξ 
-α 
"E" 
ra 

60 

40 

O 
Lithuania 

NW Bohemia 

oo 

SG Plain 

Lubelskie — 

1 

20 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

Workforce  is  'major  strength'  (%) 

Figure  14.  Training and skills  shortage 

100 

— 

80 

E 
a. 
-Ξ 

60 

40 

20 

South Esthonia  O 

MW Bohemia 

O 

o 

Lubelskie 

SG Plain 

oo 

Lithuania 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

Skill  shortages  (%) 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  in  regions 
of five candidate  countries 

301 

5.2.  Training  intensity 
As  a  balance  against  high  reported  training  levels,  the  survey  tool  asks 
employers to detail the proportion of employees who have participated in such 
activities  over  the  previous  12  months.  Comparisons  are  difficult  due  to 
differences  in regional reports but the evidence that is available suggests that: 
•  North-West  Bohemia - higher proportions of companies  provide training for 
administration, technical and senior officials with highest number of training 
days  provided for technicians  and  senior  managers; 

•  South  Estonia -  senior/professional  and  craft  occupations  receive  highest 
number  of  training  days  with  lowest  number  for  plant/machine  operators 
and elementary  workers; 

•  South  Great  Plain  -  highest  number  of  training  days  allocated  to 

administration  with little variation  elsewhere. 
What  evidence  exists  raises  the  suggestion  that  there  may  exist  an 
element  of  skill-bias  in  some  of  the  study  areas  -  greater  training  being 
provided to those occupational groups with a relatively  greater  stock  of  initial 
skills. Additional  questions  also  indicate  that  the  nature  of  training  provision 
conforms to this general pattern with higher skilled workers tending to  receive 
more formal  and systematic training  investment. 

5.3.  Graduate  and  management  training 
The  proportion  of  companies  providing  training  for  graduate  entrants  varies 
between  regions.  Figures  for  Lubelskie  and  South  Estonia  are  equal  to  or 
less  than  5%  whereas  that  reported  for  South  Great  Plain  is  20%. 
Management  development  structures  are  more  prevalent  than  those  for 
graduates  but  are  still  reported  by  only  30% of  organisations  at  most.  Such 
figures  suggest  that  graduate  and  management  training  remains  an  area  of 
relative  underinvestment  across  most of the  regions. 

5.4.  Performance  and training  assessments 
The  proportion  of firms  undertaking  assessment  of  employees  shows  a clear 
divide  across  the sample  areas. At one end of the  spectrum  lie  Lubelskie  and 
South  Estonia with  responses around 90% and at the other  lies  Lithuania with 
27%. The figure for  Lubelskie  is noticeably  high in relation to some of the other 
responses cited elsewhere  in the report.  Figure  15 provides further  information 
on  training  provision,  results  and  needs  assessments.  Three  regions  (North-
West Bohemia, South  Estonia and South Great Plain) have a higher  proportion 
of  companies  providing  training  than  assessing  training  needs.  In  Lithuania 
there is a rough balance whereas  in Lubelskie the proportion  assessing  needs 
vastly  exceeds the  proportion  providing  training  support. 

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Early  identification of skill needs in  Europe 

Figure  15.  Training  profiles 

I 

I Training provision 

Training results assessment 

Training needs 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

55.  Integrated  human  resource  development 
The  general  responses  of  companies  to  questions  regarding  skills  and 
training  issues indicate that  many employers  are aware of the importance of 
these considerations  in the context  of growth and development. 

However, evidence from the survey exercise indicates the general absence of 
a coherent  and integrated  HRD framework  in many of the  regions. Figure 16 
reports 
they  have 
business/training  plans  and the proportion  that  cite that the  latter  is linked to 
the former. The proportion with training plans varies from just over 15% to just 
35% and is lower than the proportion with business plans  in all instances. 

the  proportion  of  companies  who  claim 

that 

Figure  16.  Integrated  HRD  infrastructure 

100% 

I 

I Business plan 

Training plan 

Link between plans 

NW Bohemia 

South Estonia 

SG Plain 

Lithuania 

Lubelskie 

Total 

A demand-side  analysis  of  SME  skills  needs  in  regions 
of  five  candidate  countries 

303 

In terms of bringing together  business  and HRD  planning, and despite the 
fact  that  the  survey  results  clearly  profile  the  connection  between  HRD  and 
growth,  there  is  a  variable  performance  in  terms  of  organisations  formally 
linking  together  business  and  HRD  policies.  This  generally  represents  a 
significant  lost opportunity  and a major  area of  potential future  activity. 

6.  Conclusions 

The  exercise  reported  in this  document  has  represented  a commitment  of  a 
large  number  of  persons  and  organisations  in the  study  regions.  It  has  also 
been  an important  exercise for three  primary  reasons,  namely  it has: 
•  provided  a  coherent  way  of  assessing  demand-side  skills  and  training 

issues  'in  context'; 

•  addressed  the  type  of  issues  that  will  need  to  be  considered  in  the 

progression  towards  Structural  Funds  Programming;  and 

•  assisted  the  development  of  'evidence-based'  labour  market  intelligence 
needed  to  secure  and  access  an  adequate  resource  base  for  human 
resource  development  policy  interventions. 
Despite  the  variation  in  regions  and  sample  sets,  the  exercise  has 
provided  a  profile  of  demand-side  considerations  and  attitudes  that  are 
broadly  consistent  across  regions.  The  study  has  pointed  to  a  number  of 
potential  deficiencies  and  inconsistencies  in  employer  perspectives  towards 
human  resource  development  within  their  organisations  and  assisted 
regional  organisations  to form  an initial set  of  recommendations  designed  to 
enhance  opportunities  for growth. 

Analysis  of  the  results  also  indicates  that  there  exists  an  underlying 
rationality  across  the  sample  set  in  terms  of  patterns  of  responses  to 
underlying  difficulties.  Skills shortages  and training  levels  appear to  be  more 
pronounced 
in  regional  companies  experiencing  strong  market  and 
productivity  growth  as  well  as  being  positively  related.  This  is  a  promising 
outcome  but  the  evidence  remains  that  large  numbers  of  employers 
undervalue  the  potential  contribution  of  employees  and  adopt  a  structured 
approach to  human  resource  development. 

The  challenge  for  regional  bodies  is  to  take  the  results  of  the  exercise 
forward,  to  establish  mechanisms  to  implement  proposed  recommendations 
through existing/new  partnerships and to monitor  progress and  improvement. 
Other  considerations  include  that  of  replicating  the  exercise  within  other 
regions  (already  the  case  in  Hungary)  and  over  time.  All  labour  market 
intelligence  is  time  limited  in  relevance  as  economic  conditions,  policy 
interventions  and  organisational  development  combine 
the 
fundamentals  of the  labour  market. 

to  alter 

Résumé 
and  perspectives 

Identification  of  future 
skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches 
for  European  cooperation 

Manfred Tessaring,  European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training 
(Cedefop),  Thessaloniki,  Greece 

Starting  out  from  the  processes  of  social  and  economic  change  impacting  on 
education  and  training, the  following  article  addresses  the  resulting  need  for  the 
early  identification  and  timely  forecasting  of  qualifications  and  skills  and  their 
implementation  in educational and training policy and  practice. It documents the 
wide range of activities and approaches to the forecasting of skills and occupations 
in the various European countries. Finally, conclusions are drawn for the creation 
of greater transparency and with a view to more intensive European cooperation  -
by  means  of  information  exchange,  networking,  information  databases  and  the 
establishment of a website. 

i. 

Introduction 

In  contrast  to  the  great  social  utopias  of  the  past,  and  equally  unlike  the 
attempts of the  1960s and  1970s to find and project  laws and rules of socio 
economic  change,  there  has  been  a  change  in  the  objectives  and 
approaches  of  forecasting  in various  fields  -  education, training, the  labour 
market,  technology,  etc.  This  is  partly  due  to  the  fact  that  the  developed 
industrialised  and  post-industrial  societies  are  now  characterised  by  a 
dynamic  of  increasing  openness,  flexibility,  complexity  and  therefore  also 
uncertainty.  The  'mega  trends'  impacting  on  education  and  training,  e.g. 
globalisation  and internationalisation  of economies, job markets and even of 
education  and 
the 
transformation  towards  an  information  and  knowledge  based  society  in the 
context of lifelong learning can be taken as familiar ground which need hardly 

training  systems,  demographic 

transition  and 

Identification of future skill requirements. 
Activities and approaches lor European cooperation 

307 

be discussed  in detail  in the context  of this article.  (1)  However,  these  trends 
affect the education  and training systems  of European countries to a different 
extent:  these  systems  vary  considerably  across  countries  and  so  does  the 
educational  attainment  of  populations  (Figure  1). 

Figure  1.  Educational  attainment  of the  population  aged 25-64  years in 

Europe, 2001  (%) 

»0.2 

mm 

5 69 

Άη  o" 

37  n 

3 68 

tm  Low (ISCED 0-2) 

M  Medium (ISCED 3) 

■Ü High (ISCED 5­7) 

-

·..  : 

29 5 

2 a g 

26 S 

22 6 

1 90 

17 5 

15.6 

■ ■ :. ­

14 3 

13 ■ 

ρ 

E 

I 

EL 

β 

L 

IRL 

IS 

F 

EU 15 

CY 

NL 

HU 

RO 

BG(A) 

FIN 

SI 

S 

A 

CC  11 

LV 

DK 

PL(") 

UK 

D 

LT (Β) 

SK 

Ν 

EE 

CZ 

CH (Β) 

— 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

90 

(A) only persons with main activity in agriculture; (B) persons aged 15 years and older; 
IS and N: persons aged 15­64 years; S: data from 2000 
Countries sorted by lowest level of education (ISCED 0­2). 
Source: Eurostat: Statistics in Focus 19/2002, 20/2002 (basis: labour force survey). 

(') Cf. inter alia the summaries in Cedefop's first two Reports on Vocational Training Research in 

Europe (Tessaring, 1999; Descy and Tessaring, 2002) and the extensive bibliographies indicted in 
both reports. 

308  Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

Against  this  background,  the  question  of  the  nature  of  skills  and 
qualifications  which  are 'fit for the future' and how they  can be designed  and 
implemented  in  curricula  and  educational/training  routes  are  increasingly 
gaining in importance. Appropriate measures call for substantiated findings on 
skill requirements  in a longer-term perspective as well as information  on new 
qualifications,  competences  and  requirements  which  have  not  yet  been 
defined  by  statistics  and  classifications.  Early  identification  of  future  skill 
requirements  is of the utmost  importance for political decisions on the design 
of  education  and  vocational  training  systems.  This  is  already  evident  when 
one considers the time lag between the occurrence of an event triggering new 
or substantially different skill requirements and the point in time when the first 
cohorts  leave  the  system  with  these  new  skill  profiles:  depending  on  the 
training system  of the country  in question and the  relevant  institutional, legal 
and  formal  regulations  (2), there  may  be  a time  lag  of  as  much  as  10 years 
between  the  two  events  (see  Figure  2).  This  is  also  the  approximate  time 
frame which  projections  should at  least cover  if their  results  are to  be policy-
relevant and not arrive too  late. More long-term  projections  are necessary for 
fundamental reorientations or redesign of the education and training systems. 

Figure 2. Estimated time  lags  (3) between  new skill requirements and 

job market entry of the first  cohorts with the new skill  profiles 

Triggering event: New'skill requirements 
(e.g.  due to technological innovation) 

Time lag 

Cumulated 
time lag 

' 

Recognition and identification 
of new skill requirements 

Design/revision of skeleton 
curricula in initial training 

0.5-1 year 

-

0.5-1 year 

1-2 years 

Implementation  in the training system 

1-3 years 

2-5 years 

Young people commence training in 
the revised training programmes 

0.5-2 years 

2.5-7 years 

Completion of training, job market entry 
of the first cohorts with the new skill profiles 

2-3 years 

4.5-10 years 

Passage through working life 

-

35-45 years 

Source: based on Descy and Tessaring, 2002, p. 300. 

(2)  E.g. duration and permeability  of training courses,  involvement  of the social partners, government, 

chambers, etc., competence  and  implementing  regulations. 
(3)  Dependent  on  national  institutional, legal, formal, etc. factors. 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  for  European  cooperation 

309 

The  fundamental  objectives  of  such  efforts  are  on  the  one  hand,  at 
individual  level,  career  and  personal  advancement,  identification  with  work 
and  optimal  design  of  individual  life  and  career  biographies,  and  prevention 
of  unemployment, 
the  exclusion  of 
inappropriate  employment  and 
disadvantaged  groups,  which  can  be  decisively  achieved  by  means  of 
appropriate  and  targeted  education  and  training  provision,  at  the  level  of 
society  as  a whole, on the  other  hand. And finally, since  the  achievement  of 
all  these  aims  is  virtually  inconceivable  without  a  sufficient  number  of 
adequate  jobs  -  or  a flourishing  development  of  the  economy  to  decisively 
facilitate  the  process  -  information  on  the  future  requirements  of  work  in 
enterprises  is of  central  importance  to  meet the challenges  of the future. 

A majority  of scientists and political  and economic  stakeholders  agree that 
flexibilisation  of  work  and  working  careers,  the  dissemination  of  information 
and communication  technologies  in virtually  all areas and the growing  role of 
'knowledge'  are 
flexible,  broadly-based  and 
transferable  skills  - 
in  parallel  with  and  complementary  to  'traditional' 
specialised  skills  and working  qualities. 

increasingly  calling 

for 

At  the  same  time,  however,  openness,  flexibility  and  the  change  of 
meaning emerging  in  many countries with the  movement  away from  (formal) 
'qualifications' 
towards  a  more  comprehensive  understanding  of 
'competence',  which  includes  non-formal  and  informal  forms  of  learning  and 
knowledge  acquisition,  is  making  it  increasingly  difficult  to  anticipate  and 
define  the  knowledge,  skills  and  competences  which  will  be  required  in  the 
future.  Whereas  it  was  previously  a  question  of  applying  an  'equilibrium 
approach',  and detecting and forecasting  functional  and formal  qualifications 
at  a  high  level  of  aggregation,  e.g.  with  the  aid  of  production  functions  or 
econometric  processes, 
increasingly  on  more 
the 
comprehensive  and  qualitative  approaches  which  are  not  intended  to 
replace, but to supplement the 'traditional' methods and provide  differentiated 
and exploitable  information  on changing  trends  in work  requirements. 

today 

focus 

is 

It  should  hereby  be  pointed  out  that  efforts  to  identify  and  forecast  skill 
requirements decisively  depend on the type of education  and training  system 
and the job  markets  in the  country  in question: the question  as  to what  is to 
be  forecast  and  how  this  forecasting  is  to  be  conducted  will  be  seen  in  a 
labour  markets  with 
light  in  vocationally-oriented 
completely  different 
nationally  defined  training  and  qualification  standards  than  in  countries  with 
predominantly  competition-based  or  internal  labour  markets.  Other  factors 
which  will  play  role,  to  mention  but  a  few  examples,  are  differences  in 
planning  and  control  and  the  participation  of  the  various  societal  groups 
(governance)  at  centralised,  decentralised/regional  or  sectoral  level, as  well 

310 

Early  identification of  skill needs in Europe 

as  the  increasingly  indistinct  boundaries  between  general  and  vocational 
education  and  training  and  continuing  training  in  many  countries.  So  it  is 
hardly  surprising  that  there  is  such  a  broad  spectrum  of  objectives, 
approaches and forms of implementation  in the various  European countries, 
as demonstrated  by this volume. 

2.  Approaches  to  identify  future  qualification  and 

skill  requirements 

A whole series of quantitative approaches to the forecasting of the supply and 
demand  of  skills  and jobs  have been developed  in  recent decades,  ranging 
from  macroeconomic  projections  to  surveys  among  enterprises  and  the 
workforce  at micro  and  meso  level, including the  regional  and sectoral  level 
(for  an  overview  see:  Tessaring,  1998,  1999;  Wilson  2001,  Descy  and 
Tessaring, 2002).  However,  although  they  may  be consistent  within  a given 
socio-economic  framework  and important  for  fundamental  long-range  policy 
strategies  in  view  of  their  long-term  character,  macro  approaches  cannot 
provide  detailed  insights  into  specific  and  new  qualification  and  skill 
requirements.  Furthermore,  long-term  projections  are  of  only 
limited 
relevance  for  individuals  standing  before  educational/training  or  career 
decisions and expecting information on employment prospects in the coming 
years. Similarly,  most enterprises  are more interested in short- and medium-
term  skill trends. On the  other  hand, specific  findings  on skill  developments 
at  micro  and  meso  level  cannot  always  be  generalised.  Moreover,  they 
generally  tend to  refer to  present  skill  requirements  or  needs foreseeable  in 
the short or medium term. 

These are some of the reasons why the  European countries are in search 
of methods, approaches and data from which they can derive information on 
future  skills  and  new  qualifications  not  yet  delivered  by  the  education  and 
training  system.  In  complement  to  quantitative  approaches,  qualitative 
methods,  e.g.  Delphi  or  scenario  methods,  are  increasingly  applied,  often 
'enriched'  by  quantitative  information  relating  to  the  various  areas  of 
relevance to the development of education and training (e.g. demographic or 
macroeconomic trends, job market structures, social developments, etc.). By 
drawing  on  expert  knowledge  from  various  areas,  the  aim  of  these 
approaches  is to  place  possible  and/or  expected  alternative  education  and 
training  trends  in  a  wider  context  as  a  means  of  deducing  appropriate 
strategies  and  responsibilities. 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  lor  European  cooperation 

311 

The  decisive  difference  between  these  and  quantitative  methods  is  not 
only  that  trends  on  both  the  supply  and  demand  side  can  be  dealt  with 
simultaneously  (e.g.  skilling  and  integration  problems  of  disadvantaged 
persons; the impact  of changes  in the distribution  and organisation  of  labour 
in  enterprises  on  the  members  of  the  workforce  and  their  qualifications; 
identification  of  possible  strategies  and  their  effects),  but  also  that 
'anticipation' is no longer based on understandable calculations backed up by 
figures, but takes place  'in the minds' of experts consulted, on the strength of 
their  knowledge  and  their  sources  of  information.  It  is therefore  of  decisive 
importance  for  the  quality  and  relevance  of  these  approaches  that  they  be 
theoretically  substantiated, that  the  'right'  and  relevant  questions  are  asked 
and,  above  all,  that  suitable  experts  are  found  from  all  fields  of  activity 
(research,  politics,  business,  social  partners,  etc.)  and  prompted 
into 
constructive  cooperation. 

The  variety  of  approaches  documented  in  the  present  volume,  not  only 
between  European  countries,  but  also  within  national  borders,  raises  a 
further, by no means insignificant  problem: How can the findings obtained via 
the  different  channels  be  collated,  compared  and  rendered  exploitable  for 
policy  action  at  national  or  EU  level?  For  example,  what  findings  are 
produced  by  a  highly  aggregated  macro  economic  projection  of  skill 
requirements  in  interaction  with  a  set  of  scenarios  or  sectoral,  regional  or 
company  projections  which  have  been  established  in  isolation?  Thus  there 
may  and  will  always  be  contradictions  between  macroeconomic  and 
separately  established  sectoral  or  job-specific  projections  or  enterprise 
surveys  - 
just  as  there  are  contradictions  between  quantitative  and 
qualitative  projections. The reasons for these contradictions  lie in differences 
in the time  horizon, the  depth  of aggregation, the  information  and  data  basis 
and the  methods. The decisive question  is: how do those  responsible for the 
planning and management of the education and training system  handle these 
contradictions?  What  can  be  done  to  place  their  decisions  in  a  reliable  and 
reasonable  framework  which  is  not  dominated  by  the  interests  of  individual 
groups?  And,  last  but  not  least,  what  conclusions  can  be  drawn  for  the 
delivery  of information  to guide the educational/training  and career  decisions 
of the  individual? 

These  are  questions  which  can  evidently  only  be  briefly  touched  upon  in 
the  present  context  and  how  the  findings  can  be  rendered  exploitable  for 
political  action  will  depend  on  the  further  continuation  of  the  project.  The 
following  sections  seek  to  provide  the  reader  with  an  overview  of  relevant 
activities  at  both  European  and  national  level.  With  no  pretensions  of 

312 

Early  identification of skill needs  in Europe 

exhaustiveness  (4), this  overview  is  to  be  extended  in  the  course  of  future 
project  phases. The  editors  would  be grateful for  corresponding  information 
and the indication  of contacts. 

3.  Forecasting  and  early  identification  activities 

3.1.  Activities  at  European and international  level 
At  the  European  level,  the  European  Commission  has  and  continues  to 
support a number of related projects, particularly  in its programmes  Leonardo 
da Vinci and Targeted Socio-economic  Research  (TSER)  and their  follow-up 
programmes, and also within the framework of the European Structural Fund. 
As  early  as  in  1994,  the  European  Commission  expressly  called  for 
projections  at  national,  regional,  local  and  enterprise  level:  'Vocational 
training  should be coordinated with the needs of enterprises  and individuals. 
The question  is raised, how these  needs could be considered, how changes 
of  demand  could  be  identified  and  how  foreseeable  changes  could  be 
anticipated  and  on  which  level'  (p.  36).  The  Commission's  comments  on 
demand forecasts were as follows: 
•  'as  a tendency  there  are  indications  that  improved  demand  forecasts  are 

required; 

•  changes  have  to  be  anticipated  better,  concerning  the  national, regional, 

local and enterprise level; 

•  the  European  Community  is asked to take  initiatives  in order  to  make the 

data collected available  and comprehensible.'  (ibid.) 
In  2002,  the  European  social  partners  - 

the  European  Trade  Union 
Confederation (ETUC), the Union of Industrial and Employers' Confederations 
of  Europe  (UNICE)  and  the  European  Centre  of  Enterprises  with  Public 
Participation  and of  Enterprises  of General  Public  Interest (CEEP) -  adopted 
a  'framework  of  actions  for  the  lifelong  development  of  competencies  and 
qualifications'  (European  Trade  Union  Confederation,  2002). The  first  of  the 
four  priorities  is  to  'identify  and  anticipate  the  competencies  and  the 
qualifications  needed'.  The  text  continues:  'Identifying  competencies  and 
qualifications  needs and anticipating their development  represents a complex 
task  given  the  numerous  socio-economic  factors  which  must  be  taken  into 
consideration, but  it is imperative  nevertheless'  (p. 3). The  implementation of 
this  objective  is envisaged  by the social  partners  at two  levels: at  enterprise 

C)  The  contributions  to  this  volume  also  make  reference  to  further  skill  requirement  forecasting  and 

early  recognition  initiatives. 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  for  European  cooperation 

313 

and  at  national/sectoral  level. As  far  as  the  practicalities  are  concerned,  the 
following  measures,  among  others,  are  considered  necessary:  (1)  work  in 
partnerships  with  education  and  training  providers  at  all  levels;  (2)  develop 
networks  to  collect  information  and  exchanges  experiences,  including  by 
making  effective  use  of  the  existing  European  instruments  such  as  the 
European  monitoring  centre for change or  Cedefop.  (p. 3 f.) 

A  number  of  forecasting  activities  conducted  in  recent  years  at  both 

European and  international  level  are  presented  in the following. 
1.  In  the  'Employment  in  Europe'  reports,  the  European  Commission/ 
Eurostat publishes  information on sectoral employment growth at irregular 
intervals.  Those  sectors  identified  as  sectors  with  high  (previous  and 
expected)  growth  are generally those in which the proportion of the  lesser 
skilled  is  lower  than  elsewhere.  However  there  is  no  explicit  break-down 
of sectoral growth  according  to skills  or  occupations. 

2.  The  Institute  for  Prospective  Technological  Studies  (IPTS),  one  of  the 
institutes  of the Joint  Research Centre of the  European  Commission,  has 
presented  a series  of  -  qualitative  and  quantitative  -  forecasting  studies 
in  recent  years which  also touch  upon  aspects  of  education, training  and 
skilling. 
•  In  the  framework  of  the  'Futures'  project,  launched  in  1998,  the  IPTS 
brought  together  a  considerable  number  of  experts  and  decision 
makers  from  the  business  and  scientific  communities  and  politics. The 
project  is  designed  to  provide  insights  into  trends  in the  demographic, 
social,  economic,  skilling  and  technology  fields  as  well  as  their  impact 
on competitiveness  and employment  up to  2010. The  reports  drawn  up 
in the framework  of this project comprise analyses and trends of various 
socio-economic  aspects  of  European  society,  whereby  the  focus  is  on 
their  relationship  with  technological  development.  The  conclusion  of 
future trends is not or only partially based on projections  in the technical 
sense, but is largely the  reflection of estimates  and assessments  of the 
participating  experts  or  takes  the  form  of  scenarios.  The  reports  were 
discussed  and  summarised  in  five  panels:  demographic  and  social 
trends;  ICT  and  the  information  society;  natural  resources  and  the 
environment;  the  political  and  economic  context;  life  sciences  and  the 
frontier  of  life. The  panel  study  and the  research  reports  are  published 
in the 'Futures  Report  series' (further  details  at:  http://futures.jrc.es). 

•  In  2000,  in  cooperation  with  the  European  Science  and  Technology 
Observatory  (ESTO)  network,  the  IPTS  launched  a  projection  of  the 
impact of technologies  on the economy  and employment  in the EU. The 
starting  point  of this  initiative  is the  'Technology  and  Employment  Map' 

314 

Early identification of  skill needs in  Europe 

of  the  afore-mentioned  Futures  project.  In  the  framework  of  two 
simulation  models  and  using  an  approach  which  is  a  combination  of 
qualitative and quantitative analyses, the network projects the impact of 
various technologies on productivity, consumption and consequently on 
growth  and  employment  on  the  basis  of  a  number  of  alternative 
technology  policy  scenarios  up  to  the  year  2020.  The  projections 
include  sectoral  skill  requirements,  but only  for  highly  aggregated  skill 
levels. The  results are supplemented  by statements on skill supply  and 
-  in comparison  with  demand -  estimates  of  future  skill  bottlenecks  in 
the field  of technologies  and  research  and development. A preliminary 
project  report was prepared  in December  2001  (IPTS, 2001). 

•  In 2001, in conjunction with the  Information  Society Technologies  (IST) 
Advisory  Group, DG Information Society  and 35  European experts, the 
IPTS  published  a  series  of  scenarios  on  the  future  development  of 
information  and  communication  technologies  taking  account  of  the 
following  critical  factors:  (a)  socio-political  factors;  (b)  enterprise  and 
industrial  models;  (c)  the  demand  for  key  technologies  for  'ambient 
intelligence'  2010.  The  scenarios  also  included  aspects  of  learning, 
human 
(European 
Commission, 2001). 

resources  management  and  competences 

3.  In  1999,  Cedefop,  along  with  the  European  Training Foundation  (ETF) 
and  the  Max-Goote  Expert  Centre (University  of Amsterdam)  initiated  a 
scenario  on vocational training  in Europe with the participation  of five EU 
Member  States  and  five  central  and  eastern  European  countries: 
Germany,  Greece,  Luxembourg/Belgium,  Austria,  the  United  Kingdom, 
the Czech  Republic,  Estonia, Hungary,  Poland and Slovenia. 

The  scenario  is  based  on  a  Delphi  survey  among  several  hundred 
vocational  training  experts  per  country,  asked  to  name  expected  trends, 
strategies  and  players  in  the  field  of  vocational  training.  The  findings 
provide an insight  into possible and probable developments  of vocational 
training  systems  (up  to  approx.  2010),  by  examining  trends  in  the 
following three  important contexts: 
(a)  the economy  and technology, 
(b)  employment  and the job  market, 
(c)  training, skills and knowledge. 

The  project  also  provides  information  on  possible  strategies  and 
players in the field of vocational training. The first phase of this project was 
concluded  in the spring of  2000, the  second at the end of  2001. A report 
on the findings  of  Phase  I is already  available  (Sellin  et  al., 2000)  and a 
document  on  the  findings  of  Phase  II  is  currently  being  drawn  up  by 

Identification  of  luture  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  for  European  cooperation 

315 

Cedefop  (Van  Wieringen  et  al.,  forthcoming;  further  information  at  the 
Cedefop  Electronic Training  Village:  http://www.trainingvillage.gr). 

4.  The  European  Commission's  Forward  Studies  Unit  conducted  a  project 
entitled  'Scenarios  Europe  2010.  Five  possible  futures  for  Europe' 
(European  Commission,  Forward  Studies  Unit,  1999). The  project  draws 
on  the  expertise  of  European  Commission  officials  in  a  process  of 
brainstorming  and  reflection. The  scenarios  encompass  all the  important 
aspects  of  European  development:  markets,  the  economy,  employment 
and  technologies;  social,  political,  demographic,  cultural  and  changing 
values;  globalisation  and  EU  enlargement;  the  role  of  national  and 
European  organisations,  social  partners  and  NGOs, etc. 
The  scenario  may  be  accessed  on  the  Internet  (EN,  FR,  DE,  IT)  at 
http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm. 

5.  In  1990,  the  OECD  launched  the  'International  Futures  Programmes', 

consisting  of four  interrelated  and  mutually  supportive  elements: 
(a)  OECD  Forums  for  the  Future:  a  platform  for  informal,  high-level 
fresh 
meetings  with  the  aim  of  testing  new  ideas,  developing 
perspectives  on  problems  and  advancing  the  understanding  of 
strategic  economic  and  social  issues; 

(b)  OECD  Futures  Projects:  targeted  and  multidisciplinary  research  and 
policy analysis on certain subject areas which are in particular from the 
Forum  conferences; 

(c)  OECD  Future Studies  Information  Base: a documentation  system  (CD 
ROM)  providing  the  key  findings  and  conclusions  of  published  and 
unpublished  literature  worldwide; 

(d)  OECD  International  Futures  Network:  a global  network  of  some  600 
persons  from  government,  the  economy,  research,  who  share  a 
mutual  interest  in long-term  developments  and  related  policy  aspects. 
Information at: http://www.oecd.org/sge/au/ 

3.2.  Initiatives  on the early  recognition  of skill  requirements 

at  country  level 

The  following  provides  a  summary  of  selected  activities  relating  to  the 
forecasting  and  early  recognition  of  skill  requirements  in  a  number  of 
European and OECD countries. These  initiatives encompass  a wide range of 
quantitative and qualitative approaches  at the level of sectors, occupations or 
qualifications,  derived  from  both  statistics  or 
information  drawn  from 
enterprises  and experts.  In the first  instance,  a number  of  projects  providing 
an  overview  of  activities  in  several  European  and  non-European  countries 
are  presented. This  is followed  by  an  attempt  to summarise  these  and  other 

316 

Early  identification of skill needs  in  Europe 

activities,  drawing  on  both  information  from  the various  contributions  to this 
volume as well as additional  sources. 

3.2.1.  Overviews of forecasting activities in various countries 

1.  FrequenznetJSocial Science Research Centre Berlin (WZB): OECD countries 
In the project  'Qualification  needs  in the OECD countries', sponsored  by the 
German  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research  (BMBF),  WZB  conducts 
research  into  how  skill  requirements  are  detected  and -  on the  basis  of the 
example  of  the  health,  information  technology,  metal-working  and  electrical 
engineering  sectors  -  how  new  skills  are  implemented  in  Germany.  This 
activity on the identification of skill requirements  in OECD-countries  is part of 
the  'FreQueNz'  research  network. 

The project analyses micro-economic  models in a string of OECD countries 
and  on  the  basis  of  this  information  and  other  elements,  carries  out  cross 
country  comparisons,  in  particular  in  a  number  of  specific  sectors  (services, 
computers,  health and care).  Following the  pilot  phase, concluded  in  1999, a 
network  of  experts  from  eight  OECD-countries  was  set  up.  The  network's 
findings are available on the  Internet platform at  http://www.frequenz.net. 

A further  activity  in the framework  of this  project was the organisation  of a 
joint workshop of  Franco-German occupational and training research experts 
(26-27 October  2000)  which addressed  the following  issues: (a)  quantitative 
aspects  and  skill  structure;  (b)  new  approaches  in  the  field  of  the  early 
recognition  of  skill  requirements;  (c)  sectoral  analyses  with  a  view  to 
identifying  skill  requirements;  (d)  regional  analyses with  a view to  identifying 
skill  requirements. 

Publications: Gülker,  Hilbert and Schömann,  2000; 
n.n., 2000; Schömann,  2001. 

2.  Cedefop: European trends in the development of occupations and 

qualifications 

This  publication  features  a summary  of  contributions  to  Cedefop's  'Ciretoq' 
network.  Vol.  I  summarises  the  main  macro-trends  in  the  development  of 
occupations  and  qualifications  against  the  background  of  social,  economic, 
technical  and cultural  challenges.  Vol. II features  contributions  by  scientists 
from  various  disciplines,  touching  upon  the  following  subject  areas:  (a)  the 
socio-economic  context  and  systems  development;  (b)  development  of 
supply  and  demand  in  initial  vocational  training;  (c)  competences  and 
qualifications'  development  in  the  light  of  continuing  education/training  and 
lifelong  learning;  (d)  inter-enterprise  and  in-company  developments  and 
local/regional  competition;  (e)  teaching  and  learning  languages;  (f)  EU 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  for  European  cooperation 

317 

programmes  and outcomes of vocational education and training research; (g) 
activities  of  Cedefop's  network  for  'European  trends  in  occupations  and 
qualifications.' 

Publications:  Sellin,  1999; Sellin, ed., 2000. 

3.  Cedefop:  Reports  on  vocational  training  research  in  Europe 
Since  1998,  Cedefop  has  been  publishing  regular  Reports  on  vocational 
training  research  in  Europe  covering  a  wide  range  of  issues.  The  reports 
include a presentation  and analysis  of the  latest forecasts  on skill supply  and 
demand.  The  research  reports  consist  of  a  comprehensive  background 
report  with  contributions  from  reputed  scientists,  as  well  as  an  extended 
synthesis  report,  featuring  a  summary  and  a  critical  appraisal  of  this  and 
other  research  studies. 

An  article  in  the  first  research  report  (1998/99)  addresses  'the  future  of 
work  and  skills -  visioning, trends  and forecasts'  (Tessaring,  1998).  Starting 
out  from  fundamental  processes  of  change 
in 
enterprises,  the  contribution  presents  approaches  and  findings  of  both 
quantitative  and  qualitative  skill  and  job  supply  in  various  EU  countries 
(Germany,  Ireland, Netherlands,  Finland, United  Kingdom). 

in  society  and  work 

The  second  research  report  (2001/02)  includes  an  article  by  Wilson 
(2001),  entitled  'Forecasting  skill  requirements  at  national  and  company 
levels' in which the author gives a critical appraisal of forecasting  approaches 
used so far and weighs up their pros and cons. The article provides a detailed 
overview  of quantitative  and qualitative  forecasting  activities  at national  level 
in various  EU and non-EU countries  and of  relevant  activities  at regional  and 
local  level. The  contribution  also  features  a discussion  of  skill  projections  at 
enterprise  level.  The  synthesis  report  provides  information  on  the  latest 
forecasts  and  scenarios  in  Germany,  France,  Ireland,  the  Netherlands, 
Finland,  Sweden, the  United  Kingdom  and  a  number  of  central  and  eastern 
European countries. 

Publications:  Tessaring, 1998, 1999; Descy and  Tessaring,  2002; 
Wilson, 2001. 

4. National  Observatory  of Employment  and  Training, Czech  Republic: 
LABOURatory  for the regular  forecasting  of training  requirements 

The  Leonardo  da  Vinci  project  'Regular  forecasting  of  training  needs: 
comparative  analysis,  elaboration  and  application  of  methodology, 
"LABOURatory"',  sponsored  by  the  European  Commission,  was  set  up  in 
1998. The aim of the project  is to draw up forecasting  methods  applicable not 
only  to  western  but  also  to  eastern  European  countries.  The  project  is 

318 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

coordinated by the Czech National Observatory of Employment and Training, 
(NTF;  project  leader:  O.  Strietska-llina). The  LABOURatory  members  come 
from  the  Czech  Republic  (CERGE),  France  (OREF  and  the  private-sector 
corporate  consultancy,  Quaternaire),  Ireland  (ESRI)  and  the  Netherlands 
(ROA), as well  as two  national observatories  and  independent  experts  from 
Germany  (IAB) and other  countries. 

The  project's  first  step  was  to  take  stock  of  forecasting  activities  in  the 
Czech  Republic,  France,  Germany,  Ireland,  the  Netherlands,  Poland  and 
Slovenia.  The  second  phase  of  the  project  involved  the  presentation  of 
methods and models used in forecasting training needs and their  application 
in  various  countries: quantitative  models  and  their  application  in the  Czech 
Republic; comparative analyses and forecasting activities in Poland; regional 
and sectoral methods (case studies for the hotel, catering and tourist trade in 
the  Czech  Republic,  France  and  Slovenia).  The  publication  includes  an 
overview of the methods, applications and findings as well as the conclusions 
on possible  improvements to the methods. 

Publications: NTF, 1999,  2001. 

5. ETF: Skill needs of SMEs in regions of five candidate countries 
In 2001, in cooperation  with  national  partner  organisations,  the  ETF carried 
out  a  survey  on  skill  needs  in  specific  regions  of  five  candidate  countries 
(north  west  Bohemia/Czech  Republic,  southern  Estonia,  the  southern 
Hungarian plain, Lithuania and the Lubelskie district of Poland). The purpose 
of the survey was to conduct an intensive qualitative assessment of emerging 
regional skill requirements  in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), to 
examine  demand-related  perspectives 
local 
infrastructure  supply  and  to  prepare  the  development  of  intervention 
strategies.  The  survey  included  952  SMEs  from  15  sectors  in  five  regions 
located  in economies  in various phases of the transition  process. 

the  context  of 

the 

in 

See the contribution by L. Kerr (in this volume) for further details. 

6. Career Space Consortium: the demand for ICT skills in Europe 
The  Career  Space  Consortium,  comprising  a  number  of  major  electronic 
companies  alongside  the  European  Commission,  has  set  itself  the  aim  of 
analysing  information  on  the  situation  and  perspectives  of  skills  and  skill 
requirements  in  the  field  of  information  and  communication  technologies  in 
Europe  and  to  draw  up  appropriate  recommendations  for  education  and 
training policy -  in particular with a view to narrowing the current ICT skills gap. 

For further details, see the contribution by M. Curley (in this  volume). 
A further report on this subject has been published by Cedefop (2001). 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and approaches  for  European  cooperation 

319 

3.2.2.  Overview  on national  forecasting  activities 
With no pretension that the  information  is exhaustive,  up-to-date or correct in 
every detail, the following table gives an overview of the institutions  in Europe 
involved  in  skills  and  occupational  forecasting  activities  as  well  as  the 
approaches  applied.  Further  information  and  source  references  can  be 
obtained  from  the  individual  contributions  in  this  volume  as  well  as  the 
bibliography.  The  editors  would  be  grateful  for  any  corrections  or  additional 
details. 

4.  Summary  and future  cooperation 

Identifying  and  forecasting  future  skill  requirements  -  at  the  level  of 
individuals,  enterprises  and  society  as  a  whole  -  and  implementing  these 
requirements  in the framework  of the education and training system has  long 
been  the  subject  of  intensive  research  efforts  and  political  discussion. 
Societies  characterised  by  rapidly  changing social  and economic  conditions, 
increasing openness, permeability, complexity, and therefore  uncertainty,  are 
seeking  new,  alternative  or  complementary 
instruments  for  the  early 
identification  of  skill  requirements  and  their  implications  for  the  design  of 
training.  Such 
education, 
approaches  consider 
the  future  skill  requirements  of  target  groups, 
enterprises,  sectors  and  regions  and  increasingly  incorporate  options  and 
alternatives for  policy  and strategic  actions. 

training  and  continuing 

initial  vocational 

In this context, the objectives of the early  identification of skill  requirements 

may  in fact  differ  substantially: 
•  Projecting  future  developments/trends  of  supply  and  demand  of  existing 

(formal)  qualifications; 

•  Forecasting  changing  skill profiles in a given  occupation  or  sector; 
•  Identifying  newly  emerging  skills and  requirements; 
•  Analysing  the  increasing  or  declining  significance  of  contents  or  elements 

within  specific  qualifications; 

•  Detecting  new  configurations  or  bundles  of  skill  elements  in  a  given 

activity; 

•  Taking  into  consideration  (formally,  non-formally  or  informally  acquired) 

competences  instead  of jDurely formal qualifications, etc. 

Table  1.  National skill  requirement  forecasting  and early  identification  activities 

(The abbreviations  are explained  in the  annex) 

AmmXW 

Country 

Wkmmm*. 
[ 

ΛΜ%\\\ 

Institution 

m\\\\m 

^am 

Approach/Method/Data  sources 

mm^. 

^ Hl 

Comments 

1 

^^ 

Czech Republic 

CERGE-EI. RILSA, 
NOET-NTF 

Macro-economic  projection  model: extension, replacement and  recruitment 
demand; those leaving the education/training  systems; balancing supply  and 
demand. 

Based on the ROA and ESRI 
forecasting  models;  implemented 
within the  Leonardo project, 
'LABOURatory'. 

NOET-MTF, Trexima, 
Ministry  ol Labour 
and Social  Affairs 

Skill needs analyses, short to medium-term qualitative-type  projection  -
sectoral and regional (e.g. tourism  sector  in the region of north west 
Bohemia). 

NOET-NTF/ 
Trexima/RILSA 
supported by 
Ministry ol Labour 
and Social  Affairs 

NOET-NTF supported 
by Ministry of abour 
and Social Affairs 

Integration ol macro-economic  forecasts in an 'inlegrated system of typical 
positions' (ISTP) to determine  qualification  requirements and training  needs. 

In the set-up phase 

Research into skill shortages, elaboration ol methodology  of regular 
monitoring of skill shortages. 

in the development  phase 

Denmark 

Α κ F 

Macro-economic  projections ol labour  demand according to level ol 
education/training  and sector at national and regional level; projection 
of  labour supply according to education/training  categories based on 
demographic  trends. 

in the development  phase 

Regions 

Short-term  forecasting of skill requirements  in the regions, combination of job 
market data with  panel data from  surveys  among enterprises and experts. 

Germany 

lAB/Prognos 

Long-term  macro-economic demand  projections  per sector,  qualification level 
and held of activity; carried out on an irregular  basis since 1986. 

IAB 

KMK 

BLK 

FreQueNz 

Projection of labour force supply and the those leaving education/training on 
the basis of the educational accounting  system  (BGR)  (on an irregular  basis). 

Projection of scholars, students and those leaving lhe  education/training 
system; on a regular basis. 

Macro-economic  projection of skill supply and demand  (on an irregular 
basis). 

On the basis ol various  projections 
(ol e.g. IAB/Prognos. etc.) 

'Early recognition of skill  requirements'; sponsored by BMBF; 8 participating 
research institutes. Approaches: job vacancy analysis; reference enterprise 
surveys; examination of regional continuing training provision; examination of 
the skill supply of vocational schools and colleges; utilisation ol the network 
of  specialised associations  and chambers; development  ol methods for the 
ongoing  observation  of skill trends; skill trends in the service  sector; 
identification of trendsetters; comparative  International studies; skill structure 
report; skills  report and skill trends -  online. 

Further  details  in lhe  relevant 
articles in this publication or 
at the FreQueNz website: 
ww.lrequenz.net 

Research  institutes, 
Lander 

Projections  produced on an irregular  basis by various  universities, research 
bodies and the  Lander. 

BIBB 

Econometric simulation  and forecasting  model of industrial vocational  training 
(training  place supply and demand). 

In the development  phase 

Spain 

FORCEM 

Observation of skill and training requirements, including the sectoral and 
occupational level. 

Autonomous 
regions 

Observatories to identify skill  requirements at regional level. 

OBINCUAL/Ministry 
of  Employment 

Network to identify  key qualifications/skills and sectors and luture trends in 
occupations, jobs and occupational  profiles; scenarios. Delphi surveys, etc. 

In the set-up  phase 

France 

BIPE 

Macro-economic  projections of skill and recruitment  requirements per 
occupational category, sectors and (to a certain extent)  region; supplemented 
by scenarios. 

OREF 

Qualification  needs at national, sectoral, regional and local levels; skill  supply 
and projection ol school-leavers  and those coming out of training; 
employment  perspectives. 

Institution 

Approach/Melhod/Data  sources 

Comments 

France 

Céreq 

Changing  skill requirements  on  the  basis  ol  expert/enterprise  surveys  and job 

market  analysis. 

Finland 

Central  Office 

lor  Education 

Ministry  of 

Employment 

Projections  of  occupational  and skill trends  (supply  and demand), since  1976. 

Manpower  supply  and demand: short-  and long-term  trends 

National  Board 

Medium-  to long-term  macro-economic  projections  ol  manpower  supply  and 

of  Education 

demand per  educational/training  and occupational category,  combined  with 

scenarios  and experts" forecasts. 

Ireland 

ESRI 

Regular  macro-economic  projections  of  skill  requirements  per  sector. 

F0RFÁS/  Expert 

Short-  and  medium-term  forecasting  of  the  supply  and  demand  of  skilled 

Group  on  Future 

manpower  in certain  sectors  and  areas,  in  particular  ICT and  research. 

Skill  Needs 

Italy 

Government, 

National  surveys  on  short-  and  medium-term  job and  skill  requirements 

Coordinated  by  the  Ministry  For 

network 

per  sector;  surveys  on  regional  and  occupational  skill  needs;  scenarios; 

Employment  and  Social  Affairs 

annual  recruitment  needs;  medium-term  macro-economic  forecasts. 

Regions 

Various skill  requirement  projections 

Netherlands 

ROA 

Short-  and  medium-term  macro-economic  projections  ol  skill  supply  and 

demand  according  to  sector;  incorporation  of  mobility  and  substitution 

processes;  projection  ol  school-leavers. 

Max-Goote  Expert 

Scenarios  of  educational  and  training  trends. 

Centre 

Poland 

Various  organisa­

Projection  ol  skill  requirements. 

tions,  government 

National 

Observatory 

Short-  and  medium-term  projection  of  manpower  requirements  according 

Implemented  within 

to  sector,  occupation  and  educational/training  level, including  a  regional 

the  context  of  the  Leonardo 

structure;  projection  of  those  leaving  the education/training  system  and 

project  'LABOURatory' 

manpower  supply. 

Preparatory  work;  projection  of 

global  labour  supply  available 

Portugal 

Ministry  of 

Employment 

Surveys  on  the  short-term  training  requirements  of  enterprises  according 

to  sector and  region. 

Slovenia 

HRDF 

Surveys  on  the  training  requirements  of  enterprises  (in  certain  regions). 

Development  of  the  tourist  sector  and  training  requirements  (in  certain 

Implemented  within 

regions). 

the  context  of  the  Leonardo 

project  'LABOURatory' 

Sweden 

Central  Statistical 

Projection  of  recruitment  requirements  and  transitions  from 

Office 

education/training  to  employment;  Balance  of  supply  and  demand. 

Swedish  Foresight 

education  and  training)  and  their  interaction  on  the  basis  of  an  expert 

Projection  of  long-term  technical,  social  and  economic  trends  (including 

panel and  additional  information 

United  Kingdom 

1ER 

Macro-economic  long-term  projection  of  manpower  requirements 

according to  qualification  levels, including  regional  and  local  structures; 

forecasts  ol those  coming  out  of  training:  on  a  regular  basis. 

DfEE 

Compilation  and  analysis  of  job  market  trends, on  a  regular  basis. 

DfEE/Skills  Task 

Skill  requirement  Protections. 

Force 

NIESR 

QCA,  London 

University  etc. 

Qualitative  projection  of  training  requirements. 

Scenarios  on  skill  requirements  in various  sectors  and  regions. 

Partially  in the  set-up  phase 

322 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

As the contributions  to this volume  and the contents  of the present  article 
show, the channels and the approaches used in the various countries and by 
the  different  scientists  are  extremely  diverse.  Some  countries  have  already 
made considerable  progress, whereas  others are still at the beginning of the 
process -  either  due to a lack of  relevant  experience  and skills, or  because 
the  relevant  organisational  infrastructure  or  support  on  the  political  level  is 
not  yet  sufficient.  Access  to  this  information  is  frequently  difficult  and 
cooperation across national borders -  despite a certain degree of progress in 
the  recent past -  is not yet well-developed. 

institutions 

So,  from  this  perspective,  this  publication  of  the  proceedings  of  the 
conference  on 30-31  May 2002 is not only to be seen as an inventory  of the 
activities  in  the  various  European  countries,  but  could  also  provide  the 
starting  point  for future  intensive  cooperation -  both  between scientists  and 
from  different  countries,  as  well  as  between 
research 
researchers,  policymakers  and practitioners.  Both aspects  are of the  utmost 
importance: exchange  of experience and transnational research  cooperation 
should  serve  as a driving force for the further  development  of  methods  and 
approaches.  The  involvement  from  the  very  outset  of  policymakers  and 
practitioners -  including the social partners -  is designed to raise awareness 
among  the  stakeholders  of  the  relevance  of  and  the  need  for  a  future-
oriented  design  of  education  and  training  -  based  on  concrete  information 
and  recommendations  -  and  thereby  encourage 
to  support 
corresponding  efforts  in  terms  of  personnel,  finance  and  organisational 
resources. 

them 

In concrete terms, cooperation and transparency could be promoted in the 

following ways: 
•  Mutual  exchange  of  experience  on  methods,  approaches,  new  and 
planned  projects  and  the  outcomes  of  early  recognition  initiatives  in  the 
framework  of  regular  specialised  conferences  and/or  bi-  and  multilateral 
meetings of researchers and stakeholders. The Berlin conference on 30-31 
May  2002  in  Berlin  is  to  be  followed  up  by  a  second  conference  in  the 
spring  of  2003.  The  results  of  the  conference  should  be  published  and 
made available via the  Internet. The drawing up and ongoing  update of an 
'early  recognition  handbook'  and  a  'European  skills  development  report', 
also  posted  on  the  web,  should  also  be  envisaged  (by  analogy  to  the 
'qualifications  report' of the early  recognition  initiative  in Germany). 

•  Establishment of a cross-country  network-  incorporating the EU candidate 
and other countries -  along the lines of what has been done in the context 
of  e.g. the  LABOURatory  project  (NTF,  1999  and  2001)  and  in the  WZB 
project's  early  recognition  initiative.  This  network  would  require  an 

Identification  of  future  skill  requirements. 
Activities  and  approaches  for  European  cooperation 

323 

the  members  of 

organisational  framework  with  corresponding  personnel  and  financial 
resources.  A further  aim  is to  build  up  an  information  and  documentation 
database  with the  participation  of all network  members  and  including  other 
external  sources. 
Establishment  of  a  website  or  an  extranet  to  create  greater  transparency 
the  network. 
for 
and  as  a  discussion  platform 
Corresponding  infrastructures  are  already  available,  e.g.  website  of  the 
early  recognition 
initiative  (www.frequenz.net),  Cedefop's  Electronic 
Training  Village  (ETV)  (www.trainingvillage.gr),  the  research  platforms 
'Cedefop  Research  Arena'  (CEDRA;  http://www2.trainingvillage.gr/etv/ 
cedra/default.asp)  and  the  'European  Research  Overview'  (ERO)  of 
Cedefop  and  WIFO  (Wissenschaftsforum  Bildung  und  Gesellschaft  e.V.; 
http://www.b.shuttle.de/wifo/vet/ero.htm).  A  further  possibility 
to  be 
envisaged  is  the  creation  of  an  extranet  in  the  context  of  the  EU  CIRCA 
network  (Communication  &  Information  Resource  Centre  Administration; 
http://forum.europa.eu.int/),  which  is however  only accessible  to  registered 
members.  Cedefop  has  already  set  up  a  number  of  interest  groups  for 
specific  projects  and activities  in the framework  of this  extranet. 

Bibliography 

Cedefop.  Generic  ICT  skills  profiles.  Future  skills  for  tomorrow's  world  -

Career  Space.  Cedefop  Panorama. Thessaloniki 2001. 

Descy, P.; Tessaring, M.  Training and learning  for competence.  Second  report 
on  vocational  training  research  in  Europe:  Synthesis  report.  Cedefop 
Reference  series,  Luxembourg:  EUR-OP,  2002  (also  available  in  DE, FR 
and  ES). 

European  Trade  Union  Confederation.  Framework  of actions  for  the  lifelong 
development  of  competencies  and  qualifications.  European  Trade  Union 
Confederation  (ETUC), Union of  Industrial and  Employers'  Confederations 
of  Europe  (UNICE),  European  Centre  of  Enterprises  with  Public 
Participation  and  of  Enterprises  of  General  Economic  Interest  (CEEP). 
Brussels, 28  February  2002. 

European  Commission,  Forward  Studies  Unit.  Scenarios  Europe  2010.  Five 
possible  futures  for  Europe.  Working paper  July  1999. Gilles  Β.,  coord.; 
Michalski,  Α.;  Pench  L.R.  Brussels  1999  (also  available  in  FR  and  IT); 
http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm). 

European  Commission.  Vocational  training  in  the  European  Community: 
challenges  and future outlook:  Follow-up  to the Commission  memorandum 

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on vocational training in the European Community in the 1990s. 
Luxembourg: EUR­OP, 1994. 

European Commission. ISTAG. Scenarios for ambient intelligence in 2010. 
Final report compiled by K. Ducatel et al. IPTS Seville, IST Luxembourg 
2001. 

Eurostat. Statistics in focus, 19/2002 and 20/2002, Luxembourg, 2002. 
Gülker, S.; Hilbert, C; Schömann, K. Lernen von den Nachbarn. 

Qualifikationsbedarf in Ländern der OECD. Bullinger, H.­J., ed. 
Qualifikationen erkennen ­ Berufe gestalten, vol. 3. Bielefeld 2000. 

IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies). Impact of 

technological and structural change on employment. Prospective Analysis 
2020. Synthesis report. Report to the Committee on Employment and 
Social Affairs of the European Parliament. Seville (draft), December 2001. 

NTF. Forecasting education and training needs in transition countries: 
Lessons from the western European experience. Prague 1999. 

NTF. Forecasting skill needs: Methodology elaboration and testing. Prague 

2001. 

N.N. Qualifikationsbedarf in OECD­Ländern. WZB­Mitteilungen 87, March 

2000, p. 17­18. 

Schoemaker, P.J.H. Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloane 

Management Review, Winter 1995, pp. 25 ff. 

Schömann, K. Qualifikationen von morgen. Ein deutsch­französischer 

Dialog. Bullinger, H.­J., ed. Qualifikationen erkennen ­ Berufe gestalten, 
vol. 5. Bielefeld 2001. 

Seilin, B. et al. Scenarios and strategies for vocational education and training 

in Europe. European synthesis report on phase I. Max Goote report. 
Amsterdam 2000. 

Sellin, Β. European trends in the development of occupations and 

qualifications ­ Vol. I. Cedefop Reference Document. Luxembourg: EUR­
OP, 1999 (also available in FR and DE). 

Sellin, Β., ed. European trends in the development of occupations and 

qualifications ­ vol. II: Findings of research, studies and analyses for policy 
and practice. Cedefop Reference Document. Luxembourg: EUR­OP, 
2000. 

Tessaring, M. Training for a changing society: a report on current vocational 

education and training research in Europe 1998. Cedefop Reference 
Document. Luxembourg: EUR­OP, 1999 (Synthesis report; also available 
in FR, DE and ES). 

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Activities  and approaches  for  European  cooperation 

325 

Tessaring, M. The future of work and skills -  visions, trends  and forecasts. In 
Tessaring,  M.,  ed.  Vocational  education  and  training  - 
the  European 
research  field.  Background  report  1998,  Vol.  I.  Luxembourg:  EUR-OP, 
1998, p.  271-317. 

Van  Wieringen  et  al.  Future  education:  learning  the  future.  Scenarios  and 

strategies  in  Europe  (in the  course  of  preparation). 

Wilson,  R.A.  Forecasting  skill  requirements  at  national  and  company  levels. 
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vocational  training  research  in  Europe  2000:  background  report.  Cedefop 
Reference  series. Vol. II. Luxembourg:  EUR-OP, 2001, p. 561-609. 

Annex 

328 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

List  of  authors 

Lothar Abicht 
Institut für  Strukturpolitik  und 
Wirtschaftsförderurig  Halle-Leipzig e.V. (isw)  / 
Institute of Structural  Policies and Economic 
Development 
Halle (Saale), Germany 
E-mail:  isw.halle.abicht@t-online.de 
www.isw-online.org 
www.frequenz.net 

Gert Alaby 
Socialstyrelsen /The  National  Board of  Health and 
Welfare 
Stockholm, Sweden 
E-mail:  Gert.Alaby@sos.se 
www.sos.se/sosmeny.htm 

Norbert  Bromberger 
Forschungsinstitut  für  Berufsbildung  im 
Handwerk an der Universität  zu Köln (FBH) / 
Research Institute for Vocational Education and 
Training  in the Crafts  Sector at the 
University  of Cologne 
Cologne, Germany 
E-mail:  Norbert.Bromberger@uni-koeln.de 
www.uni-koeln.de/wiso-fak/fbh/ 
www.frequenz.net 

Frank Cörvers 
Dutch Research Centre for  Education and 
the Labour  Market  (ROA) 
Maastricht  University,  Faculty of  Economics and 
Business  Administration 
Maastricht, The Netherlands 
E-mail: F.Coervers@ROA.unimaas.nl 
E-mail:  secretary@roa.unimaas.nl 
www.fdewb.unimaas.nl/roa/home.htm 

Martin  Curley 
Intel Corporation 
Leixlip,  Ireland 
E-mail:  Martin.G.Curley@intel.com 
www.intel.com 

Helen  Dietlrich-Fuhs 
Kuratorium  der  Deutschen Wirtschaft  für 
Berufsbildung  (KWB) /  German Employers' 
Organisation for Vocational Training 
Bonn, Germany 
E-Mail:  Diedrich-Fuhs@kwb-berufsbildung.de 
www.kwb-berufsbildung.de 

Mario Gatti 
Instituto  per lo Sviluppo della Formazione dei 
Lavoratori /  Institute for the  Development of 
Workers' Vocational Training (ISFOL) 
Rome, Italy 
E-mail: m.gatti@isfol.it 
www.isfol.it 

Gerd Gidion 
Fraunhofer-Institut  für Arbeitswirtschaft  und 
Organisation  (FhlAO) /  Fraunhofer  Institute for 
Industrial  Engineering 
Stuttgart, Germany 
E-mail:  gerd.gidion@iao.fhg.de 
www.pm.iao.fhg.de 
www.frequenz.net 

Gerard Hughes 
The Economic and Social Research  Institute 
(ESRI) 
Dublin,  Ireland 
E-mail:  gerry.hughes@esri.ie 
www.esri.ie 

Mike  Coles 
The Qualification and Curriculum Authority  (QCA) 
London, United  Kingdom 
E-mail:  ColesM@qca.org.uk 
www.qca.org.uk 

Lewis Kerr 
until July 2002: European Training 
Foundation (ETF) 
E-mail:  lewis.kerr@ntlworld.com 

Annex 

329 

Jean-Louis  Kirsch 
Centre d'Études et de  Recherches  sur  les 
Qualifications  (Céreq)  /  Centre for  Research on 
Education, Training  and  Employment 
Marseille, France 
E-mail:  jlkirsch@cereq.fr 
www.cereq.fr 

Manfred  Kremer 
Bundesministerium  für  Bildung  und Forschung  / 
Federal  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research 
Bonn, Germany 
E-mail:  Manfred.Kremer@BMBF.Bund.de 
www.bmbf.de 

Helmut  Kuwan 
Helmut  Kuwan  -  Sozialwissenschaftliche 
Forschung  und  Beratung  München /  Social 
Research  and Consultancy  Munich 
Munich, Germany 
E-Mail:  Helmut.Kuwan@supplier.nfoeurope.com 
www.HK-Forschung.de 

Tom  Leney 
Institute  of  Education, University  of  London 
London, United  Kingdom 
E-mail:  leney@easynet.co.uk 
http://ioewebserver.ioe.ac.uk/ioe/cms/get.asp7cid 
=1397&1397_1=2048 

Ferran  Mané 
Rovira  i Virgili  Universität,  Department 
d'Economia /  Rovira  i Virgili  University, 
Department  of  Economics,  Reus, Spain 
E-mail:  fmv@correu.urv.es 
www.urv.es 

Josep  Oliver 
Universität  Autonoma  de  Barcelona  / 
Autonomous  University  of  Barcelona, Applied 
Economics  Department 
Barcelona, Spain 
E-mail:  josep.oliver@uab.es 
www.uab.es 

Jordi  Planas 
Institut  de Ciències de l'Educació (ICE) -
Universität Autonoma  de Barcelona (UAB)  / 
Education  Sciences  Institute  -  Autonomous 
University  of  Barcelona 
Bellaterra  (Barcelona),  Spain 
E-mail:  jordi.planas@uab.es 
www.ub.es/ice 

Susanne  Liane  Schmidt 
Fraunhofer-Institut  für  Arbeitswirtschaft  und 
Organisation  (FhlAO) /  Fraunhofer  Institute  for 
Industrial  Engineering 
Stuttgart,  Germany 
E-mail:  Susanne.Schmidt@iao.fhg.de 
www.pm.iao.fhg.de 
www.frequenz.net 

Kathrin  Schnalzer 
Fraunhofer-Institut  für  Arbeitswirtschart  und 
Organisation  (FhlAO)/Fraunhofer  Institute  for 
Industrial  Engineering 
Stuttgart,  Germany 
E-mail:  kathrin.schnalzer@iao.fhg.de 
www.pm.iao.fhg.de 
www.frequenz.net 

Klaus  Schömann 
Wissenschaftszentrum  Berlin für 
Sozialforschung  (WZB)  / 
Social Science  Research 
Center  Berlin 
Berlin, Germany 
E-mail:  klaus@wz-berlin.de 
www.wz-berlin.de 
www.1requenz.net 

Jerry  J.  Sexton 
The  Economic  and Social 
Research  Institute  (ESRI) 
Dublin,  Ireland 
E-mail:  Jerry.Sexton@esri.ie 
www.esri.ie 

330 

Early  identification of skill needs in Europe 

Rainer  Werner 
Institut für  Strukturpolitik  und 
Wirtschaftsförderung  Halle-Leipzig  e.V. (isw)  / 
Institute of Structural  Policies and Economic 
Development 
Halle (Saale), Germany 
E-mail:  werner@isw-ev.de 
www.isw-online.org 

Peter  Wordelmann 
Bundesinstitut für  Berufsbildung  (BIBB) / 
Federal  Institute for Vocational Training 
Bonn, Germany 
E-mail:  wordelmann@bibb.de 
www.bibb.de 

Beate  Zeller 
bfz Bildungsforschung /  bfz Vocational 
Training  Research Department of the Bavarian 
Employers' Associations 
Nuremberg, Germany 
E-mail:  zeller.beate@bf.bfz.de 
http://bildungsforschung.bfz.de 
www.frequenz.net 

Stavros  Stavrou 
European Centre for the  Development  of 
Vocational Training  (Cedefop) 
Thessaloniki, Greece 
E-mail:  sts@cedefop.eu.int 
www.cedefop.eu.lnt 
www2.trainingvillage.gr 

Olga  Strietska-llina 
National  Observatory  of  Employment  and Training 
National Training Fund 
Prague, Czech  Republic 
E-mail:  strietska-ilina@nvf.cz 
www.nvf.cz/observatory 

Pal Tamas 
Hungarian Academy  of Science, Institute of 
Sociology 
Budapest, Hungary 
E-mail:  H8756tam@ella.hu 

Manfred Tessaring 
European Centre for the  Development of 
Vocational Training  (Cedefop) 
Thessaloniki, Greece 
E-mail:  mt@cedefop.eu.int 
www.cedefop.eu.int 
www.trainingvillage.gr 

Miriam  Thum 
Infratest  Sozialforschung /  Infratest  Social 
Research 
Munich, Germany 
E-mail:  miriam.thum@nfoeurope.com 
www.infratest-sofo.de 
www.frequenz.net 

Abbreviations 

Country abbreviations 

A 
AL 
Β 
BG 
CC 
CEECs 

CH 
CY 
CZ 
D 

DK 
E 
EE 
EL 
EU 
F 
FIN 

Austria 

Albania 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Candidate Countries 

Central and Eastern European 

Countries 

Switzerland 

Cyprus 

Czech Republic 

Germany 

Denmark 

Spain 

Estonia 

Greece 

European Union 

France 

Finland 

GDR 

former German Democratic Republic 

HU 

I 

IRL 

IS 
L 
LT 
LV 
N 

NL 

Ρ 
PL 
RO 
S 
SK 
SL 
UK 

Hungary 

Italy 

Ireland 

Iceland 

Luxembourg 

Lithuania 

Latvia 

Norway 

Netherlands 

Portugal 

Poland 

Romania 

Sweden 

Slovakia 

Slovenia 

United Kingdom 

Annex 331 

Institutions and organisations 
(in brackets: country) 

* unofficial translation 

AFNOR 

AKF 

bfz 

BIBB 

BIPE 

BLK 

BMBF 

CBS 

Cedefop 

CEEP 

CÉREQ 

Association Française de 
Normalisation / French Association 
for Standardisation 
Institute of Local Government Studies 
(DK) 
Berufliche Fortbildungszentren der 
Bayerischen Wirtschaft / Vocational 
Training Research Department of the 
Bavarian Employers' Associations (D) 
Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung / 
Federal Institute for Vocational 
Training (D) 

Bureau d'Informations et de 
Prévisions Économiques / Bureau of 
Information and Economic 
Forecasting* (F) 
Bund­Länder­Kommission für 
Bildungsplanung und 
Forschungsförderung / State­Federal 
Committee for Educational Planning 
and Research Promotion (D) 
Bundesministerium für Bildung und 
Forschung / Federal Ministry of 
Education and Research (D) 
Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek / 
Statistics Netherlands 
European­Centre for the Development 
of Vocational Training (EU) 
European Centre of Enterprises with 
Public Participation and of Enterprises 
of General Economic Interest 
Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur 
les Qualifications / Centre for 
Research on Education, Training and 
Employment (F) 

CERGE­EI 

CGFP 

Center for Economie Research and 
Graduate Education at the Economie 
Institute (CZ) 
Consejo General de la Formación 
Profesional / General Council for 
Vocational Training (E) 

332 

Early identification of skill needs in Europe 

CPB 

DfEE 

DG 

DTI 

EICTA 

EITO 

ESRI 

ESTO 

ETF 
ETU C 
FAS 

FBH 

FhlAO 

FORCEM 

FOR FAS 

GRET 

HRDF 

lAB 

ICE-UAB 

Centraal  Plaanbureau  /  Bureau for 
Economie  Policy  Analysis (NL) 
Department  for Education and 
Employment (UK) 
Directorate  General  (of the European 
Commission) (EU) 
Department  of Trade and Industry 
(UK) 
European  Information and 
Communications  Technology  Industry 
Association 
European  Information  Technology 
Observatory 
Economic  and Social  Research 
Institute (IRL) 
European  Science  and Technology 
Observatory 
European  Training  Foundation (EU) 
European  Trade  Union  Confederation 
Training  and Employment  Authority 
(IRL) 
Forschungsinstitut  für  Berufsbildung 
im  Handwerk  an der Universität zu 
Köln /  Research  Institute for 
Vocational  Education  and Training in 
the  Crafts  Sector  at the University of 
Cologne (D) 
Fraunhofer-Institut  für 
Arbeitswirtschaft  und Organisation  / 
Fraunhofer  Institute  for  Industrial 
Engineering (D) 
Fundación  para la  Formación 
Continua /  Foundation  for  Continuing 
Training* (E) 
The  National  Policy  and Advisory 
Board  for Enterprise, Trade,  Science, 
Technology  &  Innovation (IRL) 
Grupo  de Investigación  e  Intercambio 
Tecnológico  /  Research  Group on 
Technology  Exchange*  (E) 
Human  Resource  Development  Fund 
(SI) 
Institut  für Arbeitsmarkt- und 
Berufsforschung  der  Bundesanstalt 
für  Arbeit /  Institute  for  Employment 
Research  of the German  Federal 
Employment  Services (D) 
Instituto  de Ciències  de l'Educació  -
Universität  Autònoma  de Barcelona  / 

Education  Sciences  Institute  -
Autonomous  University  of  Barcelona 
(E) 
International  Data  Corporation 
International  Association  for the 
Evaluation  of  Educational 
Achievement 
Institute  for Employment  Research 
(UK) 
Industrie-  und  Handelskammer/ 
Chamber  of  Industry  and  Commerce 
(D) 
National  Careers  Guidance 
Information  Centre* (NL) 
International  Labour  Office 
Instituto  Nacional  de  las 
Cualificaciones  /  National  Institute for 
Qualifications (E) 
Instituto  Nacional  de Estatística/ 
National  Institute  of Statistics (E) 
Instituto  Nacional  de Empleo / 
National  Employment  Institute (E) 
Institute  for Prospective  Technological 
Studies (EU) 
Instituto  per lo Sviluppo  della 
Formazione  dei Lavoratori /  Institute 
for  the Development  of  Workers' 
Vocational  Training* (1) 
Information  Society  Technology 
Instituto  Nazionale  di Statistica  / 
National  Institute  of Statistics  (I) 
Integrated  System  of Typal  Positions 
Institut  für Strukturpolitik und 
Wirtschaftsförderung  Halle-Leipzig 
e.V. /  Institute  of Structural  Policies 
and  Economic  Development  (D) 
Institut  der deutschen  Wirtschaft 
Köln /  Institute  of the German 
Industry  Cologne*  (D) 
Ständige  Konferenz der 
Kultusminister  der Länder /  Standing 
Conference  of the Ministers for 
Culture  of the Länder*  (D) 
Kuratorium  der Deutschen  Wirtschaft 
für  Berufsbildung  /  German 
Employers'  Organisation for 
Vocational  Training (D) 
National  Council  for  Vocational 
Qualifications (UK) 

IDC 
IEA 

1ER 

IHK 

ILDC 

ILO 
INCUAL 

INE 

INEM 

IPTS 

ISFOL 

1ST 
ISTAT 

ISTP 
isw 

IW 

KMK 

KWB 

NCVQ 

NIESR 

NOET­NTF 

NTF 

ΝΤΟ 
OBINCUAL 

OECD 

OREF 

OSZT 

QCA 

RILSA 

ROA 

SCOTVEC 
UNICE 

VTF 
WIFO 

WZB 

National Institute of Economic and 
Social Research (UK) 
National Observatory of Employment 
and Training (CZ) 
National Observatory of Vocational 
Training and Labour Market (CZ) 
National Training Organisation (UK) 
Observatorio de l'lnstituto Nacional de 
las Cualificaciones / Observatory of 
the National Institute of 
Qualifications* (E) 
Organisation for Economic 
Cooperation and Development 
Observatoire Régional Emploi­
Formation / Regional Employment 
and Training Observatory (F) 
National Council of Vocational 
Qualifications (HU) 
The Qualification and Curriculum 
Authority (UK) 
Research Institute of Labour and 
Social Affairs (CZ) 
Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en 
Arbeidsmarkt / Research Centre for 
Education and the Labour Market 

(ML) 
Scottish Vocational Education Council 
Union of Industrial and Employers' 
Confederations of Europe 
Vocational Training Fund (HU) 
Wissenschaftsforum Bildung und 
Gesellschaft e.V. / Research Forum 
WIFO Berlin (D) 
Wissenschaftszenlrum Berlin für 
Sozialforschung / Social Science 
Research Center Berlin (D) 

Annex 333 

Terms and other abbreviations 

ACP 
ADeBar 

AIFSZ 

AMS 

Ateco'91 

BGR 

BTS 

CA [...] 
CAM 
CAP 

CEDRA 
CIRCA 

CP 
DP 
DTF 
EDP 
ECTS 
EMSPS 

ERO 

ETED 

ETV 

GCSE 

GDP 

Production Capacity Assurance 
Arbeitsnahe Dauerbeobachtung der 
Qualifikationsentwicklung mit dem 
Ziel der Früherkennung von 
Veränderungen in der Arbeit und in 
den Betrieben / Permanent close­to­
the­job Observation of qualification 
needs, aiming at an early 
identification of changes at the 
workplace and within enterprises 
Accredited Higher Education in 

Schools (HU) 
Arbeitsplatz Master Sample / 
workplace master sample (D) 
Attività Economica '91 /1991 
Economic Activity Code* (I) 
Bildungsgesamtrechnung / 
Educational Accounting System (D) 
Brevet de Technicien Supérieur / 
Higher Technician's Certificate (F) 
Computer Aided [term] 
Computer Aided Manufacturing 
Certificat d'Aptitude Professionnelle / 
Certificate of Vocational Aptitude (F) 
Cedefop Research Arena (EU) 
Communication & Information 
Resource Centre Administration (EU 

Extranet) 
Census of Population 
Data Processing 
'Difficult­To­FiH' (vacancies) 
Electronic Data Processing 
European Credit Transfer System 
Employers Manpower and Skills 
Practices Survey (UK) 
European Research Overview 
(Cedefop/WIFO, EU) 
Emploi Type Étudié dans sa 
Dynamique /typical job studied in its 
dynamic* (F) 
Electronic Training Village 
(Cedefop/EU) 
Secondary Vocational Education level 
(CZ) 
Gross Domestic Product 

334 

Early  identification ol skill needs  in Europe 

GPS 
GNP 
HRD 
HTML 
ICT 

IDQ© 

ISCED 

ISCO 

ISDN 

IT 
LFS 
MBZ 
MSMA 

MTR 
NACE 

NAIRU 

Global  Positioning  System 
Gross  National  Product 
Human Resource  Development 
HyperText Markup  Language 
Information  and  Communication 
Technology 
Instrumentarium zur 
Dauerbeobachtung  der 
Qualifikationsentwicklung0 /  Method 
for the regular  monitoring  and early 
recognition  of qualification trends  (D) 
International  Standard  Classification 
of  Education 
International  Standard  Classification 
of  Occupations 
Integrated  Services  Digital  Network 
Information  Technology 
Labour  Force Survey 
Maintenance  Base Zero 
Maintenance  de Systèmes 
Mécaniques Automatisés  / 
Maintenance  of  Mecanical Automate 
Systems*  (F) 
Medium Term Reviews  (IRL) 
Nomenclature  of  Economic  Activities 
in the  European  Community 
Non Accelerating-Inflation  Rate of 
Unemployment 

NAP 

NGO 
NOS 
NQF 

NVQ 
PC 
R&D 
SME 
SOC 

SQL 
SWOT 

TIMSS 

TPM 
TQM 
TSER 

VET 

National Action  Pian  (for 
employment)  (EU) 
Non-Governmental  Organisation 
National  Occupational Standards (UK) 
National  Qualifications  Framework 
(UK) 
National Vocational  Qualification  (UK) 
Personal Computer 
Research and Development 
Small and Medium sized Enterprise 
Standard  Occupational  Classification 
(UK) 
Structured  Query  Language 
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities 
and Threats analysis 
Third  International  Mathematics and 
Science Study  (by IEA) 
Total Production  Maintenance 
Total Quality  Management 
Targeted Socio-Economie  Research 
(programme  of the European 
Commission) 
Vocational  Education and Training 

Cedefop  (European  Centre  for  the  Development  of  Vocational  Training) 

Early  identification  of  skill 
needs  in  Europe 

Luxembourg: 

Office  for  Official  Publications  of  the  European  Communities 

2003  -  VI, 334  pp. -  17.5  χ 25  cm 

(Cedefop  Reference  series; 40  -  ISSN  1608-7089) 

ISBN  92-896-0202-3 

Cat.  No:  TI-49-02-353-EN-C 

Price  (excluding  VAT)  in  Luxembourg:  EUR  25 

No  of  publication: 3029  EN 

Federal Ministry 
of Education 
and Research 

r 

Early  identification 
of skill needs 
in Europe 

Rapid  social  and  economic  changes  raise  the  question  of  how 
future-oriented skills and competences can be identified early and 
how education  and training should  be shaped to meet future  skill 
needs. 

The  German  Ministry  of  Education  and  Research  and  Cedefop 
organised  a conference  in  May  2002 to explore  these  questions 
focusing  on the early  identification  of skill  needs, intending  to lay 
the  foundations  for  intensified  future  European  cooperation. 

The conference  proceedings  show the challenges  education  and 
training are facing are common to all European countries. They also 
discuss  the  wide  range  of  activities  and  approaches  on  how  to 
identify new skills emerging at national, sectoral and regional levels. 

This initiative is a starting point for future cooperation and networking 
between researchers, policy-makers, social partners and practitioners 
across  European countries. 

Susanne Liane Schmidt, 
Klaus Schömann, Manfred Tessaring 

CEDEFOP 

European  Centre for the 
Development  of Vocational  Training 

Europe  123, GR-570 01 Thessaloniki (Pylea) 
Postal address: PO Box 22427, GR-551 02 Thessaloniki 
Tel. (30) 23  10 49 01 11,  Fax (30) 23 10 49 00 20 
E-mail: info@cedefop.eu.int 
Homepage: www.cedefop.eu.int 
Interactive website: www.trainingvillage.gr 

Price (excluding VAT) In Luxembourg: EUR 25 

3029 EN 

Publications  Office 

Publicaiions.eu.ini 

ISBN  12-811,-0202-3 

789289"602020">