Report from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on the implementation of Decision 1445/2000/EC on the application of areal-survey and remote-sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics for 1999 to 2003
Date: 2003-04-16
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: agricultural statistics, crop yield, management information system, meteorology, project evaluation, remote sensing, statistical method

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 16.4.2003
COM(2003) 181 final

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND
THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

on the implementation of Decision 1445/2000/EC on the application of areal-survey and
remote-sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics
for 1999 to 2003

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL AND
THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

on the implementation of Decision 1445/2000/EC on the application of areal-survey and
remote-sensing techniques to the agricultural statistics
for 1999 to 2003

CONTENT

1.

2.

2.1.

2.2.

3.

3.1.

3.2.

4.

5.

Introduction .................................................................................................................. 3

Implementation of the areal-survey and remote-sensing projects ................................ 4

The LUCAS project ..................................................................................................... 4

The MARS-STAT project............................................................................................ 5

Evaluation of the results of the two projects................................................................ 6

The LUCAS project ..................................................................................................... 6

The MARS-STAT project............................................................................................ 8

Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 9

Annex ......................................................................................................................... 10

2

1.

INTRODUCTION

This  report  has  been  drawn  up  pursuant  to  Article  6  of  Decision  1445/2000/EC  of  the
European Parliament and of the  Council of  22  May  2000  on  the  application  of  areal-survey
and  remote-sensing  techniques  to  the  agricultural  statistics  for  1999  to  20031.  This  Article
states  that  "by  31  July  2003  at  the  latest,  the  Commission  shall  present  a  report  to  the
European Parliament and the Council on the implementation of these measures and on the use
of the  resources  made  available,  accompanied,  where  appropriate,  by  any  proposals  on  how
areal-survey  and  remote-sensing  techniques  may  continue  to  be  used  for  agricultural
statistics".

This general report  follows the annual  reports presented  by  the  Commission  to  the  Member
States in accordance  with  the procedure  provided for  in  Article  5(2)  of  the  Decision.  Those
reports  concern  the  implementation,  the  methods  used,  the  use  of  appropriations,  the
evaluation of the results obtained, and the work programme for the following year.

The aim of this report is to review the two principal measures carried out pursuant to Decision
1445/2000/EC,  namely:  an  areal  survey  at  European 
the
operationalisation  of  a  system  of  meteorological  monitoring  of  crops  and  yield  forecasts
(MARS)3.

(LUCAS)2  and 

level 

Experience acquired since the agro-meteorological system was developed and implemented is
sufficient for reasonably firm conclusions to be drawn on the results of this measure, whereas,
in the case of LUCAS, the trial period is too short to draw any definitive conclusions.

The  main  factors  making  it  impossible  at  this  stage  to  draw  any  final  conclusions  on  the
implementation of the LUCAS areal survey are the following:

(cid:1)  Firstly, although Decision 1445/2000/EC was intended to cover the period from 1 January
1999 to 31 December 2003, the protracted adoption procedures meant that it did not come
into force until 5 July 2000. It was therefore not possible to carry out the first survey until
2001.

(cid:1)  Secondly,  although  the  original  plan  was  to  carry  out  an  annual  survey  in  the  European
Union, the unexpectedly high cost of the surveys led the Commission to reduce the survey
frequency to once every  two  years,  in  order  to  keep  within  budget.  This  means  that  only
one survey has been completed to date.

(cid:1)  Lastly, the results of the second pilot survey, which will be carried out in 2003, will not be
available until the end of 2003. They cannot, therefore, be taken into account in this report,
nor could they have been taken into account if presentation of the report had been delayed
until 31 July 2003.

1 OJ L 163 of 4.7.2000
2 Land Use/Cover Area Frame Statistical Survey
3 Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing

3

                                                
In these circumstances, the report is confined to a very brief description of the two measures
mentioned  above  and  a  preliminary  evaluation  of  the  results  obtained  thus  far,  which
nevertheless  justify  the continuation of these measures for an additional  four-year  period,  at
the end of which a more complete and solidly based evaluation can be made.

2.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AREAL-SURVEY AND REMOTE-SENSING PROJECTS

2.1.

The LUCAS project

2.1.1.

Purpose of the project

The  LUCAS  pilot  project  satisfies  the  need  for  information  on  land  use  and  land
cover. That need is felt most acutely in the context of the new common agricultural
policy and from the point of view of enlargement.

It also answers the need for an analysis of how agriculture, the environment and rural
areas  interact.  Greater  integration  of  the  environment  in  the  various  Community
policies is regularly mentioned by the  European Council (e.g. in the  conclusions of
the Gothenburg European Council4).

The  main  purpose  of  the  LUCAS  pilot  project  is  to  test  the  feasibility  of  an  areal
survey as a means of obtaining harmonised information on the use and cover of land,
especially  agricultural  land,  within  an  acceptable  period  and  with  satisfactory
precision  at  EU  and  (if  possible)  national  level,  but  also  to  collect  territorial
information on the environment.

The  first  areal  survey  took  place  in  13  Member  States  in  2001.  Because  of  the
outbreak  of  foot-and-mouth  disease  in  the  United  Kingdom  and  Ireland  in  2001,
those  countries  were  not  able  to  conduct  the  survey  until  2002.  A  second
comprehensive survey will be conducted in 2003. This second pilot survey will also
allow  a  time  analysis  of  changes  in  land  use  and  land  cover  and  the  landscape
structure.

2.1.2. Methodology

LUCAS  is  a  statistical  areal  sample  survey  (i.e.  a  survey  based  on  the  visual
observation  of  a  sample  of  geo-referenced  points,  without  the  involvement  of
farmers).  As  LUCAS  is  intended  to  provide  information  on  the  entire  territory,  not
just agricultural land, areal sampling (i.e. per section of territory) was preferred to a
sampling of agricultural holdings.

The LUCAS pilot project has hitherto comprised two stages: a field survey, in spring,
which is the areal survey proper, and which collects data on land cover, land use and
the environment, and a survey in the autumn, consisting of interviews of a sample of
farmers,  which  provides  additional  information,  particularly  on  yields,  agricultural
techniques, sowing intentions, etc. It should be stressed, however, that only the field
survey is really essential to the LUCAS project.

4 Conclusions of the Presidency, Gothenburg European Council, 15 and 16 June 2001

4

                                                
A  two-tier  sample  design  was  adopted  for  Phase  1  of  the  pilot  survey,  comprising
primary sampling units (PSUs), which are 18 km-square cells in a regular grid, and
secondary sampling units (SSUs) which are rectangles (1 500 m x 600 m) located in
each  PSU.  Each  rectangle  contains  10  sampling  points.  The  sample  contains
approximately  10 000  PSUs,  covering  the  entire  territory  of  the  EU.  The  LUCAS
observation is carried out at the exact spots where the SSUs are located.

In  addition  to  the  collection  of  data  on  land  use  and  land  cover,  the  enumerator
systematically observes the "environment" of the PSUs. Moreover, variations in the
linear  characteristics  of  land  and  land  cover  in  space  (landscape  structure)  are
collected along the straight line connecting the five first SSUs.

Phase  2  comprises  the  collection  of  additional  information  on  yields,  sowing
intentions and farming practices. It is carried out among  a sample of 5 000  farmers
selected at random from the survey base used in phase 1.

Table 1 (see annex) shows the cost breakdown for the 2001-2002 LUCAS survey for
the  various  lots  into  which  the  work  was  divided.  Table  2  shows  the  expenditure
incurred  by  the  Commission  (Eurostat)  in  2002  for  a  number  of  methodological
analyses concerning the LUCAS survey.

2.2.

The MARS-STAT project

2.2.1.

Purpose of the project

The purpose of the agro-meteorological system of monitoring crops and forecasting
yields, developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) as part of the MARS project, is
to provide the elements necessary for an understanding of how climatic events impact
on harvests and to forecast the yields of the main crops.

in  Decision
In  accordance  with  the  implementation  methods  provided  for 
1445/2000/EC,  the  activities  are  aimed  at  activating  both  the  agro-meteorological
model  and  the  processing  chain  of  NOAA  and  VEGETATION  low-resolution
satellite  data.  These  satellite  images  are  used  to  analyse,  monitor  and  forecast
European  field  crop  yields.  The  JRC  has  undertaken  to  maintain  the  software  and
provide overall project supervision.

2.2.2. Methodology

The  MARS  System  of  monitoring  crops  and  forecasting  yields  comprises  four
activities:

(cid:1) 

the  purchase  of  weather  data  and  the  processing,  calculation,  interpolation  and
storage of derived weather data;

(cid:1)  use  of  the  weather  data  in  the  CGMS  (Crop  Growth  Monitoring  System)  agro-
meteorological model. The results consist of a series of indicators for simulating
the  growth  of  the  main  crops.  These  indicators  are  stored  in  a  geo-referenced
database which allows the production of thematic maps of weather statistics and
indicators for each crop;

5

(cid:1)  acquisition  of  NOAA-AVHRR  and  SPOT-VEGETATION  satellite  images  and
the  processing  of  these  data  by  the  SPACE  system.  Indicators  of  the  state  of
vegetation are calculated by incorporating CORINE Land Cover data;

(cid:1) 

the creation, at the JRC, of a group of experts dedicated to the statistical analysis
of the data and quantitative forecasts using previous indicators.

The activities mentioned in points 1, 2 and 3, being operational in nature, have been
privatised. They were awarded to a contractor who was selected following a call for
tender (published in OJ S228 of 24.11.99). The contract concluded for this purpose
(Mars-OP)  comprises  four  lots  and  three  phases.  Lots  1,  2  and  3  correspond  to  the
activities  of  items  1,  2  and  3  described  above.  Lot  4  comprises  research  activities
which  were  funded  from  JRC  research  funds.  The  first  phase  covered  the  period
2000-2001, the second phase 2002 and the third, 2003.

The activity referred to in point 4 has been managed directly by the Commission at
the  JRC,  in  coordination  with  DG  Agriculture.  The  most  notable  result  of  this
activity is the MARS Bulletin, which appeared on six occasions in 1999, six in 2000,
seven  in  2001  and  seven  in  2002,  with  six  planned  for  2003  (the  final  publication
being  at  the  end  of  November  2003).  The  Bulletin  is  sent  to  the  appropriate
Commission departments, the Member States, the statistical services and the various
Ministries  of  Agriculture. 
at
http://mars.jrc.it/stats/bulletin  as  a  service  to  professionals  and  the  scientific
community.

also  published  on 

Internet 

the 

is 

It 

Table  3  (see  annex)  shows  the  use  of  Community  funding  for  the  MARS-STAT
project (agro-meteorological system) in the period 2000-2003.

3.

EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE TWO PROJECTS

It should be borne in mind that the late adoption of Decision 1445/2000/EC, which
covered  the  period  1999-2003,  meant  that  it  was  not  possible  to  carry  out  the  first
LUCAS  pilot  survey  until  2001.  It  was  possible  to  continue  the  agro-meteorology-
related  activities  during  the  transitional  period  (1999-2000)  thanks  to  funds
temporarily  available  to  the  JRC  for  other  research  and  development  activities
(MARS Project).

3.1.

The LUCAS project

The pilot survey carried out in 13 Member States in 2001 and in the United Kingdom
and  Ireland  in  2002  demonstrated  the  feasibility  of  this  project  on  a  Community
scale. During this first phase, it was shown that the project would:

(cid:1)  provide  a  common  methodology  and  classification  for  data  collection  and

estimates of land use and land cover;

(cid:1)  provide harmonised information for the entire territory of the European Union;

(cid:1)  yield early information on the areas under crops;

6

(cid:1)  extend the system (which, being dedicated entirely to information on land use and
land  cover,  was  originally  intended  for  users  of  agricultural  statistics)  to
environmental  experts,  who  will  thus  have  at  their  disposal  a  unified  database
covering, inter alia, soil erosion, the landscape, natural disasters, noise, etc.

(cid:1)  provide  statistical  data  necessary  for  implementing  indicators  measuring  the
integration  of  environmental  concerns  in  the  common  agricultural  policy,  as
described 
and
COM(2001) 144 final.

in  Commission  Communications  COM(2000) 20 final 

Before  the  project  was  implemented,  it  had  been  estimated  that  the  sample  design
described above would be accurate to within about 2% for the main classes of land
use  and  land  cover  at  EU  level.  This  was  confirmed  by  the  2001  and  2002  pilot
surveys. A number of Member States are now thinking of adapting this tool to their
own needs to replace the collection of certain data.

Unfortunately, areal surveys proved more expensive than initially anticipated, which
is why the survey can be conducted only once every two years. It also explains why
the  number  of  observation  points  has  had  to  be  reduced,  with  the  result  that
representativeness is satisfactory at EU-15 level only, and not at Member-State level.
Under these conditions, it would be advisable to study how representativeness can be
improved, either by increasing the number of observations in certain Member States
or by optimising the sampling plan.

After just one Community-wide survey, and without its full potential yet having been
analysed and used, it is impossible to make a comprehensive evaluation of this pilot
project. It  will  not be possible to make such an  evaluation before  the  results  of  the
2003  survey  are  analysed.  These  will  not  be  available  until  the  end  of  2003.
Nevertheless, in order to  make  the  evaluation  as  authoritative as possible,  it should
be  based  on  the  results  of  a  sufficient  number  of  surveys,  incorporating  all  the
technical  changes  which  are  found  to  be  necessary  in  the  light  of  experience.  The
Commission  believes  that  this  should  be  possible  once  the  third  survey  has  been
implemented  and  the  results  analysed:  hence  the  need  for  a  limited  but  sufficient
extension to the basic Decision.

In  the  meantime,  a  feasibility  study  could  investigate  the  possible  contribution  of
photo-interpretation  to  this  project.  If  the  results  are  positive,  photo-interpretation
could be used to identify observation points located at an altitude of more than 2 000
metres  or  at  places  with  poor  accessibility.  Under  certain  conditions,  it  could  even
replace ground observation for certain years.

Given appropriate technical changes (e.g. the training of enumerators), an extension
to the pilot phase would also make it possible to explore the options for improving
the  accuracy  of  the  results  at  Community  and  national  level  and  to  ascertain  the
extent to which the Member  States could be more closely involved,  on  a  voluntary
basis,  in  implementing  this  project,  e.g.  by  taking  on  responsibility  for  additional
observation  points  with  a  view  to  increasing  the  density  of  the  points  grid.  Lastly,
interrupting the pilot phase after  just  two surveys in order  to  conduct a preliminary
review would probably result in a loss of know-how which would be difficult to make
good in the short term.

7

3.2.

The MARS-STAT project

The  MARS  System  has  made  it  possible  to  evaluate  the  impact  of  the  climate  on
harvests  at  EU-15  level  and  in  the  applicant  countries,  in  an  independent  and
homogeneous manner throughout the European continent.

(cid:1) 

– 

for the 1999/2000 marketing year, the system made it possible to evaluate:

the  problems  brought  about  by  heavy  rains  during  sowing  in  France,  Germany
and Central Europe;

– 

the drought in Spain.

(cid:1) 

for the 2000/2001 marketing year, the monitoring demonstrated:

–  good sowing conditions;

– 

the winter drought in Spain, followed by good conditions;

– 

the early-summer drought in Central Europe;

–  excessively wet harvest conditions in several parts of Northern Europe.

(cid:1) 

– 

– 

– 

(cid:1) 

for the 2001/2002 marketing year, the system made it possible to evaluate:

the  problems  caused  by  heavy  rains  during  sowing  in  France,  Germany  and
Central Europe;

the favourable conditions for winter crops in Spain;

the good harvest in the applicant countries.

for the 2002/2003 marketing year, the monitoring demonstrated:

–  good overall sowing conditions;

– 

the winter and spring drought in Spain and southern Italy;

–  generally improved straw cereal yields in France;

–  heavy summer rain in several European countries. These conditions affected the
harvests  which  were  under  way  in  August,  especially  in  Germany,  and  caused
localised  damage  to  crops  (particularly  the  floods  in  Germany  and  the  Czech
Republic).

The MARS Bulletin is made available to the relevant Directorates of DG Agriculture
three or four times a year. The yield forecasts resulting from this activity are used by
DG  AGRI  as  input  data  to  compile  the  estimated  balances  for  field  crops  for  the
European Union and for the applicant countries.

With  the  help  of  the  contractor  for  the  Mars-OP  activities,  the  JRC  also  set  up  the
website http://www.marsop.info, where users can consult the data resulting from the
Mars-OP contract. This site, which was the object of a presentation to the Working

8

Party  on  Crop  Products  at  Eurostat  in  2002,  allows  authorised  users  to  download
information,  indicators  and  meteorological,  agro-meteorological  and  satellite  maps.
The statistics on the MARS site show a hundred independent hits on the bulletin site
(http://mars.jrc.it/stats/bulletin)  (including  short-term  analysts  and  international
organisations) in the course of the year. There are about a hundred registered users of
the  site  http://www.marsop.info,  including  about  fifty  whose  use  of  the  site  is  not
subject to time limits.

Evaluating  the  results  is  a  permanent  activity  at  the  JRC's  MARS  unit.  The  a
posteriori  errors  in  the  quantitative  yield  forecasts  are  calculated  from  the  final
official data. For 1999, 2000 and 2001, the forecasting errors are equivalent to or less
than the average errors of the MARS System published in previous reports. For 2002
and 2003, comparisons will be made once the official data become available. A study
known  as  QUAMP  (Quantitative  Analysis  of  MARS  Predictions)  was  launched  by
the  JRC  to  detect  and  evaluate  the  sources  of  forecasting  error.  The  results  will
become available in 2003.

4.

CONCLUSIONS

In the light of the partial evaluation set out in this report and of experience to date,
the Commission believes that a four-year extension (from 2004 to 2007) to the basic
Decision  would  enable  it  to  carry  out  an  additional  areal  survey  and  a  much  less
random and more authoritative evaluation than one based solely on the results of two,
and possibly only one, survey. In addition, a similar extension for the MARS project
(the  agro-meteorological  aspect)  would  be  fully  compatible  with  the  positive
evaluation of this measure in recent years.

9

5.

ANNEX

Table 1

Expenditure incurred for the 2001-2002 LUCAS survey (in €)

Lot

1

Description

Cost (€)

Quality  assurance  and  documentation  of  the  LUCAS
project

262,777

2 + 10

Implementation  of 
Luxembourg

the  survey 

in  Belgium  and

62,475

3

4

5

6

7

9

11

12

13

14

15

Implementation of the survey in Denmark

Implementation of the survey in Germany

Implementation of the survey in Greece

Implementation of the survey in France

Implementation of the survey in Spain

Implementation of the survey in Italy

Implementation of the survey in the Netherlands

Implementation of the survey in Austria

Implementation of the survey in Portugal

Implementation of the survey in Finland

Implementation of the survey in Sweden

8.16

Implementation  of  the  survey  in  the  United  Kingdom
and Ireland

98,803

403,936

115,499

419,295

227,149

180,488

97,957

157,808

110,808

248,377

511,470

255,791

TOTAL

3,152,632

10

Table 2

Expenditure incurred for the LUCAS methodological analyses in 2002

(in €)

Description

COST (€)

Methodological analysis of the results of the 2001 LUCAS survey

Study of the role of photo-interpretation in the LUCAS survey

Study of the use of data from the Community's LUCAS survey

Lucas-Phare project

TOTAL

Table 3

1.1.1.1. Expenditure incurred for the agro-meteorological system (MARS-STAT) (in €)

90,200

49,421

182,074

447,500

877,624

Lot\phase

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Period

2000/2001

2002

LOT 1

LOT 2

LOT 3

LOT 4

2003

99,650

90,100

151,812

204,900

99,650

87,500

207,294

160,010

162,310

259,372

197,468

200,567

Total
(all 3 phases)

2000/2003

351,112

382,500

529,614

657,407

134,120

Coordination

74,220

29,500

30,400

Total/phase

897,598

574,128

583,027

2,054,753

11