Report from the Commission to the budgetary authority on guarantees covered by the general budget - situation at 30 June 2001
Date: 2002-05-21
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: Community loan, general budget, insured risk

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 21.05.2002
COM(2002)237 final

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION

to the budgetary authority on guarantees covered by the general
budget - situation at 30 June 2001

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part One: Events since the report at 31 December 2000, the risk situation and activation of
budget guarantees................................................................................................................... 4

1.

1.1.

1.2.

2.

3.

3.1.

3.2.

Introduction: types of operation ................................................................................ 4

Operations with macroeconomic objectives .............................................................. 4

Operations with microeconomic objectives............................................................... 4

Events since the report at 31 december 2000............................................................. 4

Risk situation............................................................................................................ 4

Amount outstanding at 30 June 2001 ........................................................................ 5

Maximum annual risk borne by the Community budget: operations disbursed at 30
June 2001 ................................................................................................................. 6

3.3.

Maximum theoretical annual risk borne by the Community budget........................... 6

4.

4.1.

4.2.

4.3.

5.

6.

7.

Activation of budget guarantees.............................................................................. 10

Payments from cash resources ................................................................................ 10

Activation of the Guarantee Fund ........................................................................... 10

Arrears at 30 June 2001 .......................................................................................... 11

Analysis of the Community's theoretical lending and guarantee capacity in respect of
non-member countries ............................................................................................ 11

Situation of the Guarantee Fund at 30 June 2001 .................................................... 12

Relative solidity...................................................................................................... 13

Part Two: Evaluation of potential risks - economic and financial situation of the non-member
countries benefiting from the most important loan operations............................................... 15

1.

2.

2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

3.

3.1.

3.2.

4.

Introduction............................................................................................................ 15

Accession countries ................................................................................................ 15

Bulgaria.................................................................................................................. 15

Lithuania ................................................................................................................ 16

Romania ................................................................................................................. 16

Western balkans ..................................................................................................... 17

Bosnia and Herzegovina ......................................................................................... 17

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia............................................................... 18

Newly independent states ....................................................................................... 19

4.1.

Armenia ................................................................................................................. 19

2

4.2.

4.3.

4.4.

4.5

4.6.

5.

Belarus ................................................................................................................... 19

Georgia .................................................................................................................. 20

Moldova................................................................................................................. 20

Tajikistan ............................................................................................................... 21

Ukraine .................................................................................................................. 22

Other non-member countries .................................................................................. 22

5.1.

Algeria ................................................................................................................... 22

List of abbreviations............................................................................................................. 24

Annex .................................................................................................................................. 25

1.

Explanatory notes on the situation of risks covered by the community budget ........ 25

1.1.

Tables 1 to 3........................................................................................................... 25

1.1.1. Authorised ceiling (Table 1) ................................................................................... 25

1.1.2. Capital outstanding ( Table 1)................................................................................. 26

1.1.3. Annual risk (Tables 2 and 3)................................................................................... 26

1.2.

1.3.

1.4.

Loan operations covered by a budget guarantee...................................................... 26

Expected signature and disbursement of EIB loans ................................................. 31

Payment of the budget guarantee ............................................................................ 32

1.4.1

Borrowing/lending operations................................................................................. 32

1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties............................................................................. 32

2.

2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

2.4.

2.5.

2.6.

3.

Methodological note on the analysis of the Community's estimated lending capacity
in respect of non-member countries over the period 1999-2001 under the Guarantee
Fund mechanism (table 4)....................................................................................... 33

Reserve for loan guarantees to non-member countries ............................................ 33

Bases for the calculation of the provisioning of the Guarantee Fund ....................... 33

Basis for the provisioning of the Fund in the event of a part guarantee.................... 34

Provisioning of the Guarantee Fund........................................................................ 35

Margin remaining in the guarantee reserve ............................................................. 35

Residual lending capacity ....................................................................................... 35

Explanatory notes for country-risk indicators (+ Tables)......................................... 36

3

Part One:
Events since the report at 31 December 2000, the risk situation
and activation of budget guarantees

1.

INTRODUCTION: TYPES OF OPERATION

The risks covered by the Community budget derive from a variety of lending and guarantee
operations which can be divided into two categories: loans with macroeconomic objectives
and loans with microeconomic objectives.

1.1.

Operations with macroeconomic objectives

The first of these are the balance-of-payments loans for Member States or non-member
countries, normally carrying strict economic conditions and undertakings.

1.2.

Operations with microeconomic objectives

These are loans to finance projects which are usually repaid over the long term from funds
which these projects are expected to generate; as a rule, they are granted to companies,
financial institutions or non-member countries and, in addition to the Community guarantee,
are covered by the usual guarantees demanded by banks.

This covers Euratom and NCI loans in Member States and the Euratom and EIB loans outside
the Community (Mediterranean countries, Central and Eastern Europe, countries of Asia and
Latin America, Republic of South Africa).

2.

EVENTS SINCE THE REPORT AT 31 DECEMBER 2000

There are no events to be reported in the first half of 2001.

3.

RISK SITUATION

There are two possible methods for evaluating the risks borne by the Community budget:

–

–

The method, often used by bankers, of the total amount of capital outstanding for the
operations concerned on a given date (situation described in Table 1 below),

The more budgetary approach of calculating the maximum amount which the
Community could have to pay out in each financial year.

The second approach itself has been applied in two different ways:

–

–

By reference only to actual disbursements at the date of the report, assuming that
there are no early repayments (see Table 2 below showing the lower limit of this
maximum risk to the Community budget);

On a more forward-looking basis, by reference to all the operations decided by the
Council or proposed by the Commission in order to estimate the impact on future

4

budgets, assuming that the Commission's proposals are accepted (see Table 3 below
showing the upper limit of this maximum risk borne by the Community budget).

The latter exercise gives some idea of the future level of risks connected with the proposals
made. However, a number of assumptions have to be made about dates of disbursement and
terms of repayment (details are given in the annex) as well as interest1 and exchange rates2.

The results are shown in Tables 1 to 3, which make separate assessments of the risks relating
to countries inside the Community and countries outside the Community.

The overall figures quoted cover risks of different types; loans to one country in the case of
macro-financial assistance and loans for projects guaranteed by the borrowers in the case of
NCI and EIB operations, for example.

The following analysis distinguishes between total risk, the risk in respect of Member States
and the risk in respect of non-member countries.

3.1.

Amount outstanding at 30 June 2001

The amount outstanding is set out in Table 1.
€

The total risk at 30 June 2001 came to
31 December 2000, an increase of 8.9%3.

15 041 million, as against

€

13 808 million at

The following table shows the operations which have had an effect on the amount outstanding
since the last report.

Amount outstanding at 31 December 2000

Loan repayments
Euratom
NIC
Financial assistance
Former Soviet Union
EIB

Loans disbursed
Euratom
Financial assistance
EIB

Exchange rate differences between the Euro and other
currencies

Amount outstanding at 30 June 2001

€

million

13 808.00

0.00
- 1.30
0.00
- 54.50
- 342.80

40.00
80.00
1 683.18

- 171.58

15 041.00

1

2

3

An average interest rate of 8% is assumed for EIB loans; The average interest rate assumed for
borrowing and lending operations is 4.4%. An interest rate of 4.89% has been applied for the new
operations in Table 3.
The exchange rates used for loans in currencies other than the euro are those of 30 June 2001.
Part of the change over the past six months is due to exchange rate differences on loans in currencies
other than the Euro.

5

The capital outstanding in respect of operations in the Member States was
30 June 2001, a fall of 4.5% compared with 31 December 2000.

€

127 million at

The capital outstanding from non-member countries at 30 June 2001 was
increase of 9% compared with 31 December 2000.

€

14 914 million, an

3.2.

Maximum annual risk borne by the Community budget: operations disbursed
at 30 June 2001

The maximum annual risk is set out in Table 2.

The total risk for the second half of 2001 comes to

€

1 050 million.
€

–

–

The risk in respect of the Member States comes to

81 million.

The risk in respect of non-member countries comes to
€

The risk in respect of non-member countries will average
2001-2009.

€

969 million.

1 390 million over the period

3.3.

Maximum theoretical annual risk borne by the Community budget

The situation is set out in Table 3.

This risk comes to
€

4 662 million in 2009.

€

1 598 million during 2001. It will increase from 2002 onwards and reach

–

–

The trend in the maximum risk in respect of Member States is the same in Table 2.

The risk in respect of non-member countries amounts to
The risk will increase from 2002 onwards to reach

€

4 662 million by 2009.

€

1 508 million for 2001.

6

CAPITAL OUTSTANDING IN RESPECT OF OPERATIONS DISBURSED
million Euro

TABLE 1

Operations

Authorised
ceiling

Capital
outstanding at
31.12.00

Capital
outstanding at
30.06.01

Remainder
to be
disbursed
30.06.01

MEMBER STATES
A.Balance of payments
1. Italy
B.Others
2. Euratom (*)
3. NCI and NCI earthquake
4. EIB Mediterranean

Spain, Greece, Portugal
MEMBER STATES - TOTAL
THIRD COUNTRIES
A.Financial assistance
1. Bulgaria
2. Romania
3. Algeria
4. FYROM
5. Bosnia-Herzegovina
6. Baltic States
7. Moldova
8. Ukraine
9. Belarus
10. Georgia
11. Armenia
12.Tajikistan
13. Albania
14. Euratom (*)
B.Other
15. EIB Mediterranean(**)
16. EIB Central & Eastern Europe
17. EIB Asia, Latin America
18. EIB South Africa
THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

14000

4000
6830

1500
26330

750
780
600
90
20
220
75
435
55
142
28
75
20

16147
17150
4405
1500
42492

68822

0

0
90

43
133

460
225
250
40
10
25
55
343
30
100
23
0
0
0

5089
5124
1251
596
13621

13754

0

0
89

38
127

460
225
250
50
20
25
55
343
30
100
23
60
0
40

5468
5384
1786
595
14914

15041

0

0
0

0
0

0
100
100
40
0
85
15
92
25
32
0
75
20
0

2817
3392
946
161
7900

7900

(*) The overall ceiling is 4 000 million Euro. By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994 the Council decided to extend Euratom

loans to the financing of projects of certain non-member countries.

(**) The amount outstanding has been increased by 65,7 million Euro to take account of the principal due but not paid at 30.06.01.

Operations

Mediterranean: Member States
Non-EU countries, old mandates
Mediterranean Protocols
Central & Eastern Europe I and II
Asia, Latin America I and II
South Africa

Non-EU countries, decision of 14.4.97

Mediterranean
Central & Eastern Europe
Asia, Latin America
South Africa

FYROM, decision of 19.5.98
Bosnia, decision of 14.12.98
Turkey, decision of 29.11.99
Non-EU countries, decision of 22.12.99

Mediterranean
Central & Eastern Europe
Asia, Latin America
South Africa

Turkey, decision of 04.12.2000
Total

ANNEX TO TABLE 1

SITUATION IN RESPECT OF EIB OPERATIONS (30.06.01)

Credit line
authorised

Loans made
available minus
cancellations

Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
outstanding
at 30.06.01

1500

6362
4700
903
300

2310
3520
1022
375
150
100
600

6425
8680
2480
825
450
40702

1465

5931
4125
757
285

2290
3414
1022
375
150
100
375

861
1471
745
90
0
23456

1789

6246
4304
855
285

1263
1968
772
310
53
0
165

38
62
353
0
0
18463

38

4016
3343
682
285

1249
1926
751
310
53
0
165

38
62
353
0
0
13271

NB: As the loans are disbursed in national currencies, the loan ceiling may be exceeded when the amount
disbursed up to the date of the report are converted into Euro.

7

TABLE 2
MAXIMUM ANNUAL RISK BORNE BY THE COMMUNITY BUDGET
(Estimate in million Euro based on all operations disturbed at 30.06.01)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

TOTAL

0

0

0

0

MEMBER STATES

CAPITAL
A. Balance of payments

1. Italy

B. Structural loans

2. Euratom
3. NCI and NCI EQ
4. EIB Mediterranean

Spain, Greece, Portugal

Capital - subtotal

INTEREST
A. Balance of payments

1. Italy

B. Structural loans

2. Euratom
3. NCI and NCI EQ
4. EIB Mediterranean

Spain, Greece, Portugal

Interest - subtotal

70

4

74

6

1

7

19

4

23

2

1

3

9

9

2

2

4

10

10

2

1

3

MEMBER STATES - TOTAL

81

13

13

26

3

3

1

1

4

NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES

CAPITAL
A. Financial assistance
5. Bulgaria
6. Romania
7. Algeria
8. FYROM

9. Bosnia
10. Lithuania
11. Moldova
12. Ukraine
13. Belarus
14. Georgia
15. Armenia
16. Tajikistan
17. Euratom

B. Guarantees
18. EIB Mediterranean
19. EIB Central & Eastern Europe
20. EIB Asia, Latin America
21. EIB South Africa

Capital - subtotal

INTEREST
A. Financial assistance
5. Bulgaria
6. Romania
7. Algeria
8. FYROM

9. Bosnia
10. Lithuania
11. Moldova
12. Ukraine
13. Belarus
14. Georgia
15. Armenia
16. Tajikistan
17. Euratom

B. Guarantees
18. EIB Mediterranean
19. EIB Central & Eastern Europe
20. EIB Asia, Latin America
21. EIB South Africa

Interest - subtotal

70

150

9
17
6

119
189
42
27

629

10
5
13
1
0
1
1
8
1
2
0
1

108
129
35
24

340

0

0

0

0

88
25

0

0

88
25

5

40

63

73

55
100

25
12
37
6

70

12
57
6

12
57
6

3
55

7
57
6

35

15

0

0

25
25

8

15

22
6

255
405
106
26

299
465
140
26

302
568
154
55

309
499
155
22

323
440
156
23

326
378
173
59

1027

1045

1224

1118

1072

1083

333
330
131
37

963

317
342
67
129

955

17
10
4
2
1
1
2
15
1
4
1
3
2

199
222
51
31

567

17
7

2
1

2
13
1
4
1
3
2

184
201
47
28

513

15
7

2
1

1
10
1
4
1
3
2

168
176
43
26

461

14
4

12
4

2
1

0
8
0
4
1
3
2

2
1

0
5

4
1
3
2

9
4

2
1

3

4
1
3
2

5
3

2
1

1

4
1
3
2

2
2

2
1

1

4
1
3
2

151
149
39
21

401

135
126
35
21

352

118
105
30
20

302

100
87
26
15

250

83
72
22
12

206

0

0
89

30

119

0

0
13

6

19

138

445
200
250
13
0
25
55
343
30
22
6

2583
3616
1124
404

9116

100
46
18
18
8
2
6
63
3
38
8
23
18

1246
1267
328
198

3391

NON-MEM. COUNTRIES - TOTAL

969

1594

1558

1685

1518

1424

1385

1213

1161

12506

GRAND TOTAL

1050

1607

1571

1711

1522

1424

1385

1213

1161

12644

(Eastern Europe )
(Other non-member countries)

405
564

738
856

733
825

839
845

732
786

658
766

611
774

545
668

478
683

5740
6767

8

TABLE 3
MAXIMUM THEORETICAL ANNUAL RISK BORNE BY THE COMMUNITY BUDGET
(Estimate in million Euro based on all operations disbursed, adopted and proposed by the Commission)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

TOTAL

MEMBER STATES

CAPITAL
A. Balance of payments

1. Italy

B. Structural loans

2. Euratom and NCI
3. EIB Spain, Greece, Portugal

Capital - subtotal

INTEREST
A. Balance of payments

1. Italy

B. Structural loans

2. Euratom and NCI
3. EIB Spain, Greece, Portugal

Interest - subtotal

70
11

81

6
3
9

12

12

13

13

2
2
4

2
1
3

19
5

24

2

2

MEMBER STATES - TOTAL

90

16

16

26

3

3

0

3

0

0

0

NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES

CAPITAL
A. Financial assistance

4. Bulgaria
5. Romania
6. Algeria
7. FYROM

8. Bosnia
9. Lithuania
10. Moldova
11. Ukraine
12. Belarus
13. Georgia
14. Armenia
15. Tajikistan
16. FR Yugoslavia
17. Euratom
B. Guarantees
18. EIB Mediterranean
19. EIB C + E Europe
20. EIB Asia, Latin America
21. EIB South Africa

Capital - subtotal

INTEREST
A. Financial assistance

4. Bulgaria
5. Romania
6. Algeria
7. FYROM

8. Bosnia
9. Lithuania
10. Moldova
11. Ukraine
12. Belarus
13. Georgia
14. Armenia
15. Tajikistan
16. FR Yugoslavia
17. Euratom
B. Guarantees
18. EIB Mediterranean
19. EIB C + E Europe
20. EIB Asia, Latin America
21. EIB South Africa

Interest - subtotal

THIRD COUNTRIES - TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL
(Eastern Europe)
(other non-member countries)

40

63

73

88
25

70

150

9
17
6

55
100

25
12
37
6

70

12
57
6

12
57
6

3
55

2
35

7
57
6

88
25

5

3
25

25
50

8

3
38

22
6

94

177

270

217

153

115

80

43

302
354
125
26

326
352
168
27

354
438
223
62

431
476
267
34

526
604
307
48

627
751
385
101

716
853
359
100

754
951
277
229

1219

1258

1439

1494

1730

2094

2217

2362

14542

152
159
46
27

730

10
5
13
1
0
1
1
8
1
2
0
1

5

17
12
4
4
1
1
3
17
1
4
1
3
9
15

17
11

4
1

2
17
1
4
1
3
9
30

15
11

4
1

2
14
1
4
1
3
9
43

14
8

4
1

1
12
0
4
1
3
9
60

12
8

4
1

1
9

4
1
3
9
77

9
8

4
1

1
7

4
1
3
9
91

5
7

4
1

1
5

4
1
3
9
99

2
6

4
1

0
4

4
1
3
9

296
314
57
62
778

1508

1598
661
848

318
255
119
44
828

2047

2063
918
1129

388
384
124
63
1059

2317

2333
1112
1205

431
536
121
71
1267

2706

2732
1338
1368

471
512
115
89
1304

2798

2801
1294
1504

583
558
167
88
1525

3255

3255
1454
1801

779
701
215
116
1947

4041

4041
1759
2282

926
832
326
138
2360

4577

4577
1963
2613

992
864
242
169
2300

4662

4662
1913
2750

9

0

89
44

133

0

12
6

18

151

445
225
250
13
0
25
63
377
30
22
6
0
0
1149

4188
4938
2157
654

100
77
18
31
8
2
11
92
3
38
8
23
73
420

5184
4956
1486
840

13368

27910

28061
12411
15499

4.

ACTIVATION OF BUDGET GUARANTEES

4.1.

Payments from cash resources

The Commission draws on its cash resources under Article 12 of Council Regulation
(EC, Euratom) No. 1150/2000 of 22 May 2000 implementing Decision 94/728/EC, Euratom
on the system of the Communities' own resources, in order to avoid delays and resulting costs
in servicing its borrowing operations when a debtor is late in paying.

4.2.

Activation of the Guarantee Fund

Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 2728/94 of 31 October 1994 established a Guarantee
Fund for external action. In the event of late payment by a recipient of a loan granted by the
Community, the Guarantee Fund is called on to cover the default within three months of the
date on which is payment is due. If a borrower defaults on an EIB loan guaranteed by the
Community budget, the Community will act within three months of receiving a letter from the
Bank calling for the guarantee to be activated. The Commission will then authorise the Bank
to take the corresponding amounts from the Guarantee Fund.

Default interest for the time between the date on which cash resources are made available and
the date of activation of the Fund is drawn from the Fund and repaid to the cash resources.

In the last six months the Fund has been called on to honour guarantees for the following
debtors:

Non-member country

Former Yugoslavia

Vojvodina

Serbia

Kosovo

Total

€

uro

Date

Amount (principal + interest)

30.04.01

30.04.01

30.04.01

2 215 236.71

2 845 592.70

15 213.44

5 076 042.85

10

4.3.

Arrears at 30 June 20014

Arrears due from non-member countries

Non-member country

Guarantees activated
(2)

Default interest
(3)

€

uro

Total

Tajikistan

0. 00

0. 00

0. 00

Vojvodina (1)

Serbia (1)

Montenegro (1)

Kosovo (1)

34 258 866.49

89 482 290.39

459 653.54

237 534.05

Subtotal former Yugoslavia

123 978 690.93

41 516 726.29

165 955 070.76

Total

123 978 690.93

41 516 726.29

165 955 070.76

1) The breakdown of unpaid amounts between the republics of former Yugoslavia is intended as a guide.

2) The guarantees activated in respect of EIB operations include amounts not paid on time and the default
interest incurred when the Community guarantee enters into force.

3) Default interest entered in the accounts between the date on which the guarantee is activated and the date of
the report. For the former Yugoslav republics the amount shown is the overall total.

5.

ANALYSIS OF THE COMMUNITY'S THEORETICAL LENDING AND GUARANTEE
CAPACITY IN RESPECT OF NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES

In practice, the Guarantee Fund and reserve facility limits the Community's lending and
since the appropriations available for
guarantee capacity to non-member countries,
provisioning the Fund whenever a new lending decision (or any annual tranche in the case of
guarantees for multiannual operations) is adopted are limited by the amount entered for the
guarantee reserve in the Financial Perspective5.

At any given time, lending capacity corresponds to the margin remaining in the guarantee
reserve. This margin is equal to the difference between the reserve and the estimated amount
needed to provision the Guarantee Fund for operations which have already been adopted and
which are in preparation.

Table 4 shows an estimate of the Community's lending capacity in respect of non-EU
countries over the period 2001-2004 in line with the Guarantee Fund mechanism. The method
of calculation and references to legal texts are set out in greater detail in the Annex.

On the basis of the decisions adopted by the Council and decisions proposed and in
34.82 million is expected to be used from the guarantee reserve
preparation (see Table 4),
during the second half of 2001, leaving

8.02 million available at the end of the year.

€

€

4

5

€

1 250 million loan which the Community granted to the former
Arrears due from Tajikistan on the
Soviet Union and its republics and arrears on the EIB loan granted to former Yugoslavia under the
Mediterranean protocols. The figures include defaults covered by the budget.
The figure entered in the 2000-2006 Financial Perspective is

200 million at 1999 prices.

€

11

If account is taken of the effect on the guarantee reserve of the provisioning of the Fund in
respect of loans already decided and loans proposed and in preparation for 2001, the annual
capacity available for loans is as follows:

€

€

–

–

89.10 million for loans with a 100% guarantee under the Community budget, or

137.08 million for loans with a 65% guarantee (in accordance with Council

Decision 2000/24/EC of 22 December 1999).

The current estimates in Table 4 for the provisioning of the Fund in 2001 show that the
remaining lending capacity is very limited.

At 30 June 2001, outstanding lending and loan guarantee operations for non-member
countries plus unpaid interest due totalled

15 116.73 million.

€

1. Capital outstanding, borrowing and lending

2. Capital outstanding, EIB

3. Capital outstanding, payment defaults

4. Default interest

Unpaid interest due6

TOTAL

€

million

Situation au 30.06.01

1 641.00

13 271.00

60.34

41.50

101.89

15 116.73

The ratio between the Fund’s resources and outstanding capital liabilities within the meaning
of the Regulation establishing the Fund was 10.17%, which is higher than the target figure of
9% set in Regulation No 1149/1999 amending Regulation No 2728/94 establishing the Fund.
The rules state that at the end of a year the surplus shall be paid back to a special heading in
the statement of revenue in the general budget of the European Communities.

€

The surplus of
budget in the second half of 2001.

165.36 million at the end of the financial year 2000 will be repaid to the

6.

SITUATION OF THE GUARANTEE FUND AT 30 JUNE 2001

At 30 June 2001, the Guarantee Fund amounted to
were recorded in the first half of 2001:

€

1 540 million. The following movements

–

–

–

6

€

5.1 million drawn from the Fund as a result of further defaults;
€

late repayment by Tajikistan of

78.9 million in arrears;

net revenue of around

€

34.3 million on investments from the Fund’s assets.

Unpaid interest due within the meaning of the Regulation establishing the Guarantee Fund.

12

The Guarantee Fund could amount to around
€

169.1 million from the 2001 reserve;

a transfer of
€

€

1 898 million at the end of 2001 assuming:

169.36 million repaid to the budget as Fund surplus at 31 December 2000;

no further defaults requiring activation of the Fund other than a call made in April
2001 concerning

4.5 million;

€

late repayment by FRY of
for late payment;

€

204 million in principal and interest arrears plus interest

net revenue of around

€

36.9 million on investments from the Fund’s assets.

–

–

–

–

–

7.

RELATIVE SOLIDITY

The ratio between the amount in the Fund at 30 June 2001 (
1 540 million) and the
maximum annual risk for loans to non-member countries (defined as the total amount falling
€
due) shown for 2001 in Table 3 (
1 508 million) is 102 %.

€

13

Indicative amounts of loans to be provisioned under the reserve for guarantees

(in Euro million)

Provisioning rate of 9%

Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Loan

Provis.

Loan

Provis.

Loan

Provis.

Loan

Provis.

Loan

Provis.

Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts Amounts

Amount of the reserve

203

208

213

216

221

1. EIB LOANS

Decided operations
Mediterranean Basin, 4th Syrian Protocol
1997-2000 general lending mandate
2000-2007 general lending mandate
Special Turkey reconstruction facility
Extension of the general lending mandate to
Croatia (2000/688/EC)

75,00
140,00
2 210,09
95,01
124,96

6,75
8,82
129,29
5,56
7,31

15,00
15,00
2.993,00

1,01
0,95
167,19

3.111,50

182,02

3.039,50

177,81

3.102,00

181,47

62,50

3,65

62,50

3,65

Extension of the general lending mandate to a
Turkey customs union special action

350,00

50,00

2,93

50,00

2,93

Provisional estimates
ExtensionofthegeneralmandatetoFRY
BalticseaRussiaspecialaction

2. MACROFINANCIAL ASSISTANCE

Decided operations
Albania III, Bosnia II, Bulgaria IV, Romania IV,
FYROM
Tajikistan
Moldavia III

Provisional estimates
WesternBalkans(FRY,Bosnia,Croatia)

3. EURATOM

Provisional estimates
Ukraine
Otherloans

Use of the reserve (1+2+3)

Margin within the reserve (after provisioning
of above-indicated loans)

150,00
100,00

8,78
5,85

150,00

8,78

130,00

7,61

100,00

5,85

75,00
15,00

6,75
1,35

180,00

16,20

-0,01

186,30

16,70

127,00

11,43

127,00

11,43

154,00
146,00

13,86
13,14

199,98

8,02

205,89

7,11

203,44

12,56

217,25

3,75

Residual lending capacity for macro-
financial assistance

185,58

89,08

79,00

139,56

41,67

Residual lending capacity for EIB loans

285,50

137,04

121,54

214,70

64,10

-

-
-
-
-

The EC guarantee to EIB loans covers 75% of the principal for loans provided under the 4th Syrian Protocol (Mediterranean Basin), 70% of the principal
for loans provided under the 1997-2002 general lending mandates, and 65% of the principal for loans provided under the other mandates and facilities.
From 2002, the figures mentioned under the 2000-2007 general lending mandate include the amounts for Croatia and those for the Turkey customs special action.
As agreed in principle at COREPER level, the EC guarantee will cover 100% of the principal of the loan. Decision expected before end 2001.
The reduction of 1 million euro in the provisioning in 2000 results from a change in the provisioning rate (from 10% to 9%) and a correction in the 1999 volume.
For Ukraine, under the 627 million euro loan for the K2-R4 project, 503 million euro are already provisioned from previous years and 154 million euro are planned
to be provisioned in 2004. For Romania, under the 400 million euro loan for Cemavoda 2 Project, provisioning is planned in 2002,2003,2004. For Bulgaria, under
the 212 million euro loan for the Kozloduy NPP upgrading, provisioning took place in previous years.

14

Part Two:
Evaluation of potential risks - economic and financial situation
of the non-member countries benefiting from the most
important loan operations

1.

INTRODUCTION

The figures in Part One provide information on quantitative aspects of the risk borne by
the general budget. However, these data should be accompanied by an assessment of the
quality of the risk, which depends on the type of operation and the standing of the
borrower. Recent events which may influence the portfolio country risk are analysed
below.

The country risk evaluation presented in Part Two presents a table of risk indicators (see
Annexes) for each non-member country that has received EC macro-financial assistance
and still has outstanding debts to the EC. To complement
textual analysis is
provided for those countries where significant new information influencing the risk
evaluation has become available since the previous report, which covered the last six
months of 2000.

this,

The evaluation in this Part does not deal with countries other than those mentioned,
mainly because Community exposure elsewhere (notably through guarantees of EIB
lending) represents only a small fraction of total exposure and is also well diversified
among countries.

2.

ACCESSION COUNTRIES

2.1.

Bulgaria

In 2000 growth increased in Bulgaria from 2.4% to 5.8%, thanks to favourable internal
and external developments. Inflation accelerated to over 12% as the result of high energy
prices and a disappointing harvest, but it decelerated significantly during the first part of
2001 (9.7% in May compared with May 2000). The currency board arrangement
(DM 1 = BGN 1 or EUR 1 = BGN 1.96) has been maintained over the period.

Unemployment remains high: after falling slowly in the course of 2000, it rose in the first
half of 2001, reaching 19.5% in June. These job losses reflect employment
losses
associated with structural reforms, which have not yet been compensated by job creation
the
because of the weak business climate and also a skills mismatch. As a result
participation rate is falling and long-term unemployment remains high (nearly 60% of
total unemployed).

Bulgarian public finances remain sound. The general government deficit stood at 0.7% of
GDP in 2000 and the authorities foresee an increase to 1.4% of GDP in 2001.
Meanwhile, public debt is falling rapidly, from well above 100% of GDP in 1997 to an
expected 69.1% of GDP at the end of 2001.

15

2.2.

Lithuania

In 2000, real GDP rose by 3.3%, and in the first half 2001 it is estimated to have grown
by 5.1%, year-on-year. The main driving force for the recovery has been strong exports.

Consumer price inflation has been particularly subdued recently, because of weak
domestic demand and the strength of the liras against the Euro. In 2000, the consumer
price index rose by 1.0% compared with the previous year. Despite some inflationary
effects from price liberalisation and increasing world commodity prices, inflation is
likely to remain relatively low in the near future. In June 2001 it was 1.5%, year on year.

Registered unemployment
increased by 3.1% points to 11.5% on average in 2000.
Unemployment has continued to rise, although a slight decline was registered in the
second quarter of 2001; at the end of that quarter it stood at 12.4%.

During 2000, public finances improved significantly, thanks to the implementation of the
November 1999 “anti-crisis” programme. The programme entailed a significant
tightening of the fiscal stance, in order to correct the fiscal and external imbalances. In
March 2000, a precautionary IMF stand-by arrangement was signed, so as to avoid
potential liquidity constraints. The fiscal consolidation is now largely on track, and the
deficit was reduced to 2.8% of GDP in 2000. The planned budget deficit for 2001 is 1.4%
of GDP.

Thanks to stronger export growth and weak domestic demand, the current-account deficit
declined from 11.2% of GDP in 1999 to 6.0% in 2000. The current account has
continued to decline in 2001 and was 5.4% of GDP in the first quarter (against 5.7% in
the same quarter of 2000). Foreign direct investment has remained relatively unaffected
by the economic slowdown and has contributed to the financing of the current account
deficit.

Structural reforms progressed during 2000. While the privatisation process continued
satisfactorily during the first half of 2001 and new bankruptcy and enterprise
restructuring laws were adopted in June, the adoption of the pension reform was delayed.

2.3.

Romania

Following a three-year decline and a modest rebound in 2000, GDP rose by 4.9% in the
first half of 2001 as private consumption grew by 7.6% and investment by 6.7%. The
policy measures of the newly elected government were instrumental in the strengthening
of the recovery. In particular, an increase in social transfers, a freeze on energy prices
and a rise in public enterprise wages boosted households’ real income and consumption
expenditure. Coming on top of temporary factors, such as the impact of last year’s
drought on food import needs, rising domestic demand played a large role in the sharp
deterioration of the current account over the first six months of 2001, when the
cumulative deficit amounted to 3.5 % of projected GDP (against a total of 3.7 % of GDP
for all of 2000).

In spite of this, there are no immediate concerns for Romania’s external vulnerability. On
the contrary, most external vulnerability indicators have been improving, as reflected in a
more favourable debt servicing profile, growing exports and renewed access to
international financial sources. By the end of June, gross reserves held by the central

16

bank rose to US$3.6 billion, or 3.1 months of imports, compared to US$2.5 billion, or 2.5
months of imports, at the end of 2000. In addition, after regaining access to the
international capital market towards the end of 2000, Romania was able to launch a
600
million Eurobond on improved terms in June 2001 when Standard and Poor’s raised its
rating of Romanian long-term foreign currency debt. While external indebtedness is still
rather low by international standards, it has increased rapidly in recent months pointing
to the need for halting the ongoing deterioration of the current account.

€

Apart from the privatisation of Banca Agricola, no other significant actions were
completed in the area of structural reforms during the first half of 2001. In particular,
public enterprise wages increased more than planned and inter-enterprise arrears
accumulated again, rising above 7% of projected GDP.

3.

WESTERN BALKANS

3.1.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

General elections took place in November 2000, but only in March 2001 were
governments formed in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), the Republika
Srpska (RS) and the State, after protracted negotiations and the intervention of the OHR.
Although these delays hampered economic reform and led to an extended legislative
paralysis, the new governments appear reform-oriented and eager to regain momentum.

After GDP growth decelerated from 10% in 1999 to an estimated 5% in 2000, it is
expected to recover to about 8% in 2001. Unemployment is still very high: it was 40.1%
of the labour force in 2000, and is expected to remain at similar levels in 2001. The high
ratio of external financing to GDP in 2000 (44%) implied that the economy continued to
depend heavily on foreign assistance - mainly transfers and loans - which undoubtedly
fuelled GDP growth. Tentative estimates for 2001, however, indicate a sharp reduction to
23%.

The currency board arrangement, with the Konvertible Marka (KM) pegged 1:1 to the
deutsche mark, has helped to moderate inflationary pressures: average inflation for the
entire country was 5.5% in 2000, though there were significant disparities between the
entities (2% in FBiH, 14.5% in RS). No change in average inflation is expected for 2001.
Weak fiscal discipline and poor expenditure control continue to be a major source of
macroeconomic risk, as recently revealed by OHR/OSCE special audits conducted at the
level of Entity budgets. General government expenditure is still very high: it was about
56% of GDP in 2000 and is likely to remain at a similar level in 2001.

The export recovery initiated in 2000 (partly thanks to a reopening of the Yugoslav
market), and the decline in imports (arising mainly from reductions in donor finance for
reconstruction) both continued in the first half of 2001. As a result, the current account
deficit (excluding transfers) is expected to narrow further in 2001 to 20.8% of GDP, from
22.2% in 2000. Foreign debt remains high (though on a downward trend), partly because
of the debt burden inherited from the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
The ratio of debt service to exports, however,
reflecting the
concessional nature of much of the debt and debt rescheduling agreed with the London
and Paris Clubs. During 2000 and so far in 2001, BiH remained current on its external
debt-service obligations.

is relatively low,

17

In May 2001 the IMF completed its final reviews of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA)
signed in May 1998. Negotiations for a new SBA with the BiH authorities are under way
and should be completed before the end of the year.

Although foreign debt is decreasing, recent macro-economic developments may have
increased the country risk of BiH. None of the rating agencies provides risk indicators.
EBRD transition indicators, which reflect progress with reform in Central and East
European countries, placed BiH towards the low end of the scale in 2000. The
inhospitable business environment also explains BiH's weak performance in attracting
much-needed foreign investment, for which it has one of the poorest records among
Central and East European countries.

3.2.

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

The risk to the Community budget stemming from the guarantees for loans to the country
increased in the first half of 2001, as clashes between ethnic Albanian rebels and the
is
security forces erupted and the economic and financial situation deteriorated. It
estimated that real GDP fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of the year. A
number of domestic and foreign investments were put on hold, reducing aggregate
domestic demand.

However, some degree of macroeconomic stability was maintained. CPI inflation
remained at around 4% year-on-year, while the central bank managed broadly to
maintain a stable exchange rate against the DM/Euro. Despite repeated interventions by
the National Bank, official reserves, which had increased around the turn of the year,
notably thanks to a sizeable inflow of foreign exchange revenue from the sale of shares in
the telecom company to a foreign investor, remained at a satisfactory level and well
above the recommended minimum of three months of imports.

Because of the closure of border crossings, as well as the general uncertainty regarding
the situation in the country, foreign trade was disrupted. In the first half of 2001 the fall
in exports and accordingly the trade deficit
in imports was stronger than the fall
narrowed. Political, financial and economic links with the EU, which remains the largest
trading partner, were strengthened in April with the signature of the Stabilisation and
Association Agreement, which will gradually lead to a free trade area between the
country and the EU.

The external debt/GDP ratio has increased significantly in recent years, mostly as a result
of valuation effects (a significant share of the foreign debt is in US$). It is expected that
the debt/GDP ratio will continue to grow slightly in 2001 while the decline in exports
could cause the debt service ratio to increase from its current level of around 13% of
exports.

The worsened economic and financial situation will probably necessitate redesigning the
economic programme agreed with the IMF. The authorities have been unable to fulfil all
macroeconomic performance criteria and structural reform requirements under the first
year of the EFF/PRGF programme.

18

4.

NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES

4.1.

Armenia

After stagnating in the early part of 2000, GDP began to grow again later in the year.
Overall, GDP grew by 6% in 2000. This favourable trend was maintained during the first
months of 2001.

In 2000, budget revenues continued to be below projected levels, resulting in expenditure
cuts and a rapid build-up in expenditure arrears (over 5 % of GDP). The budget deficit
was 4.7% of GDP, roughly the same as in 1999. In the first months of 2001, however, the
first signs emerged that the reform of the tax administration was beginning to bear fruit,
as budget revenues increased substantially. Inflation was halted in 2000, with an increase
in consumer prices of only 0.4%, despite a substantial increase in energy prices, but it
accelerated again in 2001 – to about 5% annually. The currency depreciated by about 6%
in nominal terms against the US$ in 2000, but has stabilised since then.

In 2000, the trade turnover increased by 13% (compared to 1999) to US$740 million.
Exports rose by 25% and imports by 9.6%. The trade and current account deficits are
expected to remain very high (over 15% of GDP) in the coming years, as long as the
external commercial blockade resulting from the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
remains in force. The total volume of FDI increased substantially in the first half of 2001,
reflecting large inflows from established foreign investors and resurgent investment from
Russia.

Gross international reserves were equivalent to 3.5 months of imports at the end of 2000.
External debt amounted to US$858.7 million or 44.1 % of GDP at the end of 2000 and
is heavy when
has not changed substantially in 2001. The burden of external debt
measured in terms of the debt-stock and debt-service to export ratios, but the country is
expected to benefit from substantial transfers and investment from abroad. Debt is fairly
sustainable when measured by the debt-stock and debt-service to fiscal revenue ratios.

4.2.

Belarus

Since the incumbent president, Mr. Lukashenko, won the elections in September, no
major changes are to be expected in economic and financial policies. His authoritarian
style and reluctance to liberalise the economy have made for difficult relations with the
International Financial Institutions and donor countries.

The IMF, in the context of its special monitoring programme which came to an end at the
end of September, has in recent months commented favourably on the exchange-rate
stability and disinflation achieved in Belarus, but raised concerns over the continued use
of barter, growing levels of stocks and excessive interference by the government in the
industrial sector. Although the Belarus administration hopes that
the monitoring
programme will pave the way for multilateral financing, this appears unlikely as long as
the government resists pressure to begin restructuring the economy.

Real GDP grew by 3% in the first half of 2001, helped by continued external demand for
Belarus industrial goods and by further strong growth in real income. However, fixed
capital investment continued to decline sharply. Monthly inflation remains significantly
down in year-on-year terms, and the currency's nominal depreciation has slowed. A year-

19

on-year decline in expenditure on imports, particularly from non-Commonwealth of
Independent States sources, has more than outweighed the sluggish growth in export
revenue that occurred in the first half of 2001, resulting in a trade surplus. The current
account was in surplus in the first quarter, as in the previous quarter (the first time that
the current account had been in surplus in two successive quarters). Foreign debt
continues to decline, owing to highly restricted access to external financing.

4.3.

Georgia

The macroeconomic situation of Georgia deteriorated in 2000, as GDP growth slowed
significantly to 1.9% for the year as a whole, the lowest rate since 1995. This resulted
from a severe drought which caused a significant decline in agricultural production. In
2001, GDP growth is expected to pick up a little.

In the first eight months of 2000, the state budget revenue was again below target mainly
as a result of weak administration, corruption and difficulty in collecting revenue, in
particular customs duties, in a divided country with a sizeable black economy. However,
revenue collection improved in the second half of the year. End-year inflation was 4.6 %,
half that of end-1999. Inflationary pressures are expected to increase, however, as a result
of a rise in the regulated prices of utilities and higher food prices following the drought in
2000. In early 2001, the exchange rate of the Lari was stable at around 2 Lari/US$.

In 2000, Georgia’s current account deficit remained at the very high level of 13.7 % of
GDP (excluding official transfers). Foreign trade suffered from the severe drought and
the resulting lower agricultural production. In the first months of 2001 it deteriorated
further, owing to the consequences of the financial crisis in Turkey (the chief market for
Georgia’s exports) and stronger consumer demand and investment expenditure in
Georgia.

Foreign exchange reserves were still low in April 2000 (at little more than one month's
imports); they are expected to increase slightly to 1.5 months by end of 2001. External
debt at end of 2000 amounted to US$1.8 billion or about 59 % of GDP (48 % of GDP in
1998), while its servicing was equivalent to 25 % of total budget expenditure. External
debt is rather high when measured in terms of the debt-stock and debt-service to export
ratios, and extremely heavy when measured by the debt-stock and debt-service to fiscal
revenue ratios. Agreement on a debt rescheduling arrangement was reached with the
Paris Club of creditors in March 2001. As a result, debt repayments for 2001 have been
reduced from US$88 million to US$33 million.

4.4.

Moldova

Initially,

the new government’s apparent

In February 2001, the Moldovan Communist Party won the majority of seats in the
intention to increase state
parliament.
interference in the economy caused relations with the IMF and other donors to
deteriorate, and led the Fund to suspend its Poverty Reduction and Growth Programme
for Moldova in May 2001. Subsequently,
the government sought hard to restore
cooperation with the IMF and showed willingness to push forward privatisation. As a
result, the IMF board is expected to decide a resumption of lending in October 2001. This
decision will be crucial to Moldova’s economic and financial future. The Commission
intends to send a mission to Moldova in October to restart negotiations on a macro-
financial assistance package, amounting in total to

15 million.

€

20

Economic growth has speeded up markedly in 2001. In the first half of the year GDP
increased by 4% year-on-year, following a 1.9% rise in 2000 and a 3.4% contraction in
1999. The acceleration of growth was spread throughout
the economy. Industrial
production was up by 12% year-on-year, and agricultural output, in recent years a drag
on the economy, rose by 15%. Restrained money-supply growth and relative currency
stability over the first six months of 2001 helped to ensure seasonally low (0.6%) average
monthly consumer price inflation, and a decline in year-on-year inflation to under 9% in
August, its lowest level since 1998.

The budget deficit declined from 3% of GDP in 1999 to only 1% in 2000. Fiscal policy
has been loosened somewhat this year, and the deficit is projected at just under 1.5% of
GDP for 2001.

A sharp rise in imports caused the merchandise trade deficit to double as a percentage of
GDP in 2000 to an extremely high 24%. In the first half of 2001, exports surged by about
30% year-on-year, while imports continued to rise, but more slowly. Nevertheless, since
export growth started from a relatively low base, the trade deficit increased slightly.
Foreign debt at the end of 2000 equated to 120% of GDP.

4.5

Tajikistan

After GDP expanded by 3.7% in 1999, growth accelerated to 8.3% in 2000 and in the
first months of 2001. This rapid growth occurred despite a severe drought that hampered
electricity generation, resulted in a very bad grain harvest (only 50% of the 1999 level)
and disrupted regional trade.

In 2000, fiscal consolidation was achieved thanks to improved collection of revenue. In
the early part of 2001 the budget was again running a primary surplus. Inflation surged in
the second half of 2000, mainly as a result of slippage in monetary policy and uncertainty
surrounding the introduction of the new currency on 30 October, and also high energy
prices. More recently, however, inflation has moderated: consumer prices rose by 9% in
the first five months of 2001, compared with 17% in the fourth quarter of 2000.

The current account position worsened in 2000, recording a deficit of 6.4% of GDP. The
drought caused a shortfall in domestic electricity production and necessitated sizeable net
electricity imports. Higher oil prices also contributed to the pressures on the balance of
payments. Because of increased capital inflows, arising mainly from advance payments
to the cotton sector, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to US$87.2 million at the end
of 2000, which corresponded to 2.4 months of imports coverage. In the first part of 2001
the current account deficit was at a comparable level.

Tajikistan's external debt rose to 129% of GDP at the end of 2000. This increase resulted
entirely from the depreciation of the exchange rate (the value of the debt stock changed
very little). External debt is fairly sustainable when measured in terms of the debt-stock
and debt-service to export ratios, but very high when measured by the debt-stock and
debt-service to fiscal revenue ratios. The debt problem is a key constraint on the poverty
reduction and growth strategy. In the next 4-5 years, the annual net resource transfer
abroad (deriving from debt payments) will be no less than 5% of GDP.

21

4.6.

Ukraine

Real GDP, after expanding by 5.8% in 2000, the first year of growth since Ukraine's
independence, is estimated to have grown by 9.1% (year-on-year) in the first half of
2001. Growth is being supported by both exports and domestic spending.

Despite the strengthening of economic activity, inflation has been on a downward trend,
with the consumer price index increasing by only 5.3% in the first half of 2001,
compared to 18.7% in the same period of 2000. By the end of 2001 annual inflation is
expected to be about 14% (sharply down from 25.8% in December 2000). The decline in
inflation reflects a combination of factors, including the stability of the hryvnia since
March 2000, a prudent fiscal policy and more moderate world oil prices.

On the fiscal front, privatisation revenues in 2001 are expected to be much lower than
budgeted. To compensate for this, the government has agreed with the IMF to reduce the
target for the fiscal deficit (excluding privatisation revenues) from the 3% of GDP
to 1.75% of GDP. This is to be achieved through
implicit
expenditure cuts and the positive effect on tax collection of stronger than expected
economic activity, which should more than compensate for the adverse revenue effects of
the amnesty on tax arrears adopted by the parliament in early 2001.

in the original budget

Progress with structural reforms slowed significantly in the first half of 2001, partly
reflecting the political
impasse that surrounded the resignation of Prime Minister
Yuschenko in May 2001. Certain promising steps have been taken, however, such as the
withdrawal of the banking licence of Banka Ukraina, an insolvent state-owned bank, and
the improvement in cash collection rates in the power sector.

The current account surplus is projected to narrow from 4.7% of GDP in 2000 to about
2% of GDP in 2001. This reflects both faster import growth resulting from the strength of
domestic demand and a deceleration of export growth from its 2000 peak, caused by
lower foreign demand and the appreciation of the real exchange rate. Although the
current account continues to be in surplus, the balance of payments remains vulnerable.
Access to the international bond markets was lost in the wake of the Russian crisis of
1998 and FDI inflows have continued to be disappointing. Against this background,
official foreign exchange reserves remain low (about US$2 billion, or 5.2 weeks of
imports, at end of June 2001), although they have shown a moderate upward trend since
March 2000. The debt rescheduling agreed by the Paris Club in July 2001 and the
expected reactivation of the IMF’s EFF in the autumn of 2001, however, should pave the
way for significant official financial flows and the eventual return of Ukraine to the
international capital markets. Ukraine’s external debt stock stood at the equivalent of
36% of GDP at the end of 2000.

5.

OTHER NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES

5.1.

Algeria

High oil and gas prices have had a positive impact on Algeria's financial position and
country risk, as the hydrocarbon sector accounts for more than 90% of exports and
approximately 30% of GDP. The current account reached a surplus of about 17% of GDP
in 2000. Under the current assumption of an average oil price of US$20 per barrel, the
balance of payments will remain strong in 2001 (current account surplus projected at
12% of GDP). Official reserves equated to over one year's imports at the end of 2000

22

(US$11.9 billion). The trend continued in the first half of 2001 and the official reserves
rose to US$15.2 billion at end-June 2001.

High oil prices also contributed to improving the fiscal position. The increase in
hydrocarbon revenue resulted in a surplus of almost 10% of GDP in 2000 (against –0.4%
of GDP in 1999).

However, strong oil prices did not suffice to fuel economic growth, which reached only
2.4% of GDP in 2000 (compared with 3.3% of GDP in 1999). This modest result can be
attributed in particular to poor agricultural performance and low industrial output, which
continued to decline in the first quarter of 2001. GDP growth for 2001 is projected at
3.8%: it is expected that a contraction in oil production, resulting from lower OPEC
quotas, will be offset by a rebound in demand and in agricultural production.

In 2000, food prices decreased (-0.8% on average) which limited the CPI increase to
0.3%. However, core inflation (non-food prices) rose to over 3% in the first quarter of
2001.

External debt indicators improved substantially in 2000. Medium- and long-term external
debt decreased from US$28.3 billion at end of 1999 (59.1% of GDP) to US$25.5 billion
(47.9% of GDP) at end of 2000 and is projected to decrease further, to US$23.3 billion
(40.7% of GDP), by end of 2001. Debt service has also been falling sharply from 39.6%
of exports in 1999 to 20.9% of exports in 2000 and is projected to stabilise at 21.6% of
exports in 2001.

23

List of abbreviations

Deutsche Mark

European Community

Extended Fund Facility

European Investment Bank

European Union

Euro

Foreign Direct Investment

Gross Domestic Product

International Monetary Fund

Stand-By Arrangement

Dollar of the United States of America

DM

EC

EFF

EIB

EU

EUR

FDI

GDP

IMF

SBA

US$

24

ANNEX

1.

EXPLANATORY NOTES ON THE SITUATION OF RISKS COVERED BY THE COMMUNITY
BUDGET

1.1.

Tables 1 to 3

The purpose of Tables 1 to 3 is to show the outstanding amount of guarantees and annual
repayments of capital and interest in respect of borrowing and lending operations for which
the risk is covered by the Community budget. The figures show the maximum possible risk
for the Community in respect of these operations and must not be read as meaning that these
amounts will actually be drawn from the budget. In the case of Table 3, in particular, it is not
certain that all the operations described will actually be disbursed.

1.1.1.

Authorised ceiling (Table 1)

This is the aggregate of the maximum amounts of capital authorised (ceilings) for each
operation decided by the Council.

In order to relate it to the risk which the budget might have to cover, account should be taken
of the following factors which could affect it:

–

–

Factor increasing the risk: the interest on the loans must be added to the authorised
ceiling

Factors reducing the risk:

• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB to 75% of the loans signed in the

Mediterranean countries;

• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB to 70% of the loans signed as part of
lending operations with certain non-member countries authorised by the Council
Decision of 14 April 1997 and a sharing of risk between the Community and the
EIB as the budget guarantee covers only political risks in some cases;

• limitation of the guarantee given to the EIB to 65% of the loans signed as part of
lending operations with certain non-member countries authorised by the Council
Decision of 22 December 1999 and a sharing of risk between the Community and
the EIB as the budget guarantee covers only political risks in some cases;

• operations already repaid, since the amounts concerned, except in the case of
balance of payments support (Member States), are the maximum amount of loans
granted and not outstanding amounts authorised;

• the amounts authorised are not necessarily taken up in full.

25

1.1.2. Capital outstanding ( Table 1)

This is the amount of capital still to be repaid on a given date in respect of operations
disbursed.

Compared with the previous aggregate, the amount outstanding does not include loans which
have not yet been disbursed nor the proportion of disbursed loans which have already been
repaid. It may be described as the amount of loans which exist on a given date.

1.1.3.

Annual risk (Tables 2 and 3)

Estimated amount of principal and interest due each financial year.

This amount is calculated for:

a)

b)

disbursements alone (Table 2)
corresponds to the amount outstanding;

in which case the capital

to be repaid

disbursements, decisions
proposals still awaiting decisions (Table 3)

still awaiting disbursement

and Commission

in which case the capital to be repaid corresponds to the ceiling on loans authorised plus,
where applicable, the amounts in respect of operations proposed by the Commission and not
yet decided.

1.2.

Loan operations covered by a budget guarantee

Tables 5a, 5b(1), 5b(2) and 6.

26

TABLE 5a

Borrowing and lending operations: Member States

Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period

in million Euro

COUNTRY

Decision

Date

Loan

Loan

Amount

Amount

Operations in

Amount

of decision term

situation

decided

outstanding

six-month period

outstanding

(years)

- closed (a)

at 01.01.01

Amounts

Amounts

at 30.06.01

- partially disbursed (b)

- disbursed in full (c)

- not yet disbursed (d)

disbursed

repaid

ITALY

93/67/CEE

18.01.93

EURATOM

NCI

77/270-271/Euratom 29.03.77

80/29/Euratom

20.12.79

82/170/Euratom

15.03.82

85/537/Euratom

05.12.85

90/212/Euratom

23.04.90

78/870/EEC

16.10.78

81/19/EEC(1)

20.01.81

81/1013/EEC(2)

14.12.81

82/169/EEC

15.03.82

83/200/EEC

19.04.83

87/182/EEC

09.03.87

6

6

-

-

(3)

(3)

(c)

(c)

(d)

(d)

(c)

(c)

(c)

(b)(4)

(d)(4)

(c)

(c)

(c)

(c)

(c)

(c)

8.000,00

2.000,00

2.000,00

2.000,00

2.000,00

4.000,00

500,00

500,00

1.000,00

1.000,00

1.000,00

6.830,00

1.000,00

1.000,00

80,00

1.000,00

3.000,00

750,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

40,00

0,00

40,00

90,30

1,30

89,00

TOTAL

18.830,00

90,30

40,00

1,30

129,00 (5)

(1) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Italy in 1980.

(2) Exceptional aid for the reconstruction of areas hit by the earthquake in Greece in 1981.

(3) Long-term loans for which the schedule of repayments depend on the dates of disbursement.

(4) By Decision 94/179/Euratom of 21 March 1994 the Council decided to extend Euratom loans to the financing of projects in certain non-member countries.

(5) Discrepancy caused by change in the rates of the other currencies against the Euro.

27

Financial assistance to non-member countries
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period, broken down by countries and tranche

TABLE 5b (1)

COUNTRY

Decision

Date
of decision

Loan
term
(years)

Expiry
date

Loan
situation

- closed (a)
- partially disbursed (b)
- disbursed in full (c)
- not yet disbursed (d)

Amount

Amount
decided outstanding
at 01.01.01

in million Euro

Operations in
six-month period

Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
repaid

Amount
outstanding
at 30.06.01

BULGARIA II
1st tranche
2nd tranche
BULGARIA III
1st tranche
2nd tranche
BULGARIA IV
1st tranche
2nd tranche
ROMANIA II
ROMANIA III
1st tranche
2nd tranche
ROMANIA IV
1st tranche
2nd tranche
BALTIC STATES
ESTONIA
1st tranche
2nd tranche
LATVIA
1st tranche
2nd tranche
LITHUANIA
1st tranche
2nd tranche
FYROM I
1st tranche
2nd tranche
FYROM II
1st tranche
2nd tranche

92/511/EEC

19.10.92

97/472/EC

22.07.97

99/731/EC

08.11.99

92/551/EEC
94/369/EC

27.11.92
20.06.94

99/732/EC

08.11.99

92/542/EEC

23.11.92

7
7

10
10

10
-
7

7
7

10
-

7
-

7
-

7
7

07.12.2001
29.08.2003

10.02.2008
22.12.2008

21.12.2009
-
26.02.2000

20.11.2002
20.11.2004

29.06.2010
-

31.03.2000
-

31.03.2000
-

27.07.2000
16.08.2002

97/471/EC

22.07.97

99/733/EC

15
15

27.09.2012
13.02.2008

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(a)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(d)

(a)
(d)

(a)
(d)

(a)
(b)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(d)

28

110,00
70,00
40,00
250,00
125,00
125,00
100,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
125,00
55,00
70,00
200,00
100,00
100,00
220,00
40,00
20,00
20,00
80,00
40,00
40,00
100,00
50,00
50,00
40,00
25,00
15,00
50,00
10,00
40,00

70,00
40,00

125,00
125,00

40,00
60,00

55,00
70,00

100,00
0,00

0,00
0,00

0,00
0,00

0,00
25,00

25,00
15,00

0,00
0,00

10,00

70,00
40,00

125,00
125,00

40,00
60,00
0,00

55,00
70,00

100,00
0,00

0,00
0,00

0,00
0,00

0,00
25,00

25,00
15,00

10,00
0,00

TABLE 5b (2)
Financial assistance to non-member countries
Changes in amounts outstanding during six-month period, broken down by countries and tranche

in million Euro

COUNTRY

Decision

Date

Loan
of decision term

Expiry
date

Loan
situation

Amount Amount
decided outstanding

Operations in
six-month period

(years)

- closed (a)
- partially disbursed (b)
- disbursed in full (c)
- not yet disbursed (d)

at 01.01.01 Amounts
disbursed

Amounts
repaid

Amount
outstanding
at 30.06.01

BOSNIA
1st tranche
2nd tranche
MOLDOVA I
1st tranche
2nd tranche
MOLDOVA II

UKRAINE I
UKRAINE II

1/2 tranche
1/2 tranche
2nd tranche

UKRAINE III

1st tranche
2nd tranche

BELARUS

1st tranche
2nd tranche

ALGERIA I

1st tranche
2nd tranche

ALGERIA II

1st tranche
2nd tranche

99/325/EC 10.05.99

94/346/EC 13.06.94

96/242/EC 25.03.96
94/940/EC 22.12.94
95/442/EC 23.10.95

98/592/EC 15.10.98

95/132/EC 10.04.95

91/510/EEC 23.09.91

94/938/EC 22.12.94

GEORGIA
ARMENIA
REPS FORMER USSR
TAJIKISTAN

97/787/EC 17.11.97
97/787/EC 17.11.97
91/658/EEC 16.12.91
2000/244/EC 20.03.00

22.12.2014
-

07.12.2004
08.08.2005
30.10.2006
28.12.2005

29.08.2006
30.10.2006
30.10.2008

30.07.2009
-

28.12.2005
-

15.12.1997
17.08.2001

27.11.2002
-
24.07.2013
30.12.2013
28.09.1997

15
-

10
10
10
10

10
10
10

10
-

10
-

5
7

7
-
15
15
3
15

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(d)

(c)
(d)

(a)
(c)

(c)
(d)
(c)
(c)
-
(b)

20,00
10,00
10,00
45,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
85,00
200,00
50,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
58,00
92,00
55,00
30,00
25,00
400,00
250,00
150,00
200,00
100,00
100,00
110,00
28,00
1.250,00
75,00

10,00
0,00

20,00
20,00
15,00
85,00

50,00
50,00
100,00

58,00
0,00

30,00
0,00

0,00
150,00

100,00
0,00
100,00
23,00
54,50
0,00

TOTAL

4.028,00

875,50

10,00

60,00

70,00

10,00
10,00

20,00
20,00
15,00
85,00

50,00
50,00
100,00

58,00
0,00

30,00
0,00

0,00
150,00

100,00
0,00
100,00
23,00
0,00
60,00

54,50

54,50

1.641,00

29

GEOGRAPHICAL AREA

Decision

Date
of decision

Rate
of guarantee

Date of
guarantee
contract

Amount
decided

TABLE 6

LOAN GUARANTEES TO EIB

in million Euro

Loans signed

Amount outstanding

at 01.01.01

during
six-month
period

at 01.01.01

at 30.06.01

MED. Financial protocols(1)

MED. Horizontal cooperation

R/1762/92/EEC

8.03.77

29.06.92

75% (2)

75% (2)

30.10.78/10.11.78

09.11.92/18.11.92

TOTAL MED.

C and E Europe I

C and E Europe II

Asia, Latin America I

Asia, Latin America II

Asia, Latin America II

South Africa

New mandates

FYROM
Bosnia

Turkey

90/62/EEC(4)

91/252/EEC(5)

93/696/EC(6)

93/115/EEC

96/723/EC

96/723/EC

95/207/EC

97/256/EC(7)

98/348/EC

98/729/CE

99/786/EC

Mandates 2000-2007

2000/24/EC(8)

TOTAL

12.02.90

14.05.91

13.12.93

15.02.93

12.12.96

12.12.96

01.06.95

14.04.97

19.05.98

14.12.98

29.11.99

22.12.99

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

70%

100%

70%

70%

70%

65%

65%

24.04.90/14.05.90

19.01.93/04.02.93

22.07.94/12.08.94

04.11.93/17.11.93

18.03.97/26.03.97

21.10.97

04.10.95/16.10.95

25.07.97/29.07.97

29.07.98/07.08.98

16.06.99/22.06.99

18.04.00/23.05.00

19.07.00/24.07.00

6062

1800

7862

1000

700

3000

750

153

122

300

7105

150

100

600

18860

40702

5514

1768

7282
(3)

912

498

2792

621

153

122

300

7009

130

60

375

847

21102

-

-

-

-

-

-

115

0

115

60

0

673

848

2290

1570

3860

659

342

2265

488

147

108

271

3499

45

60

150

154

2429

1625

4054
(*)

654

340

2349

529

153

118

285

4118

53

0

165

453

12048

13271

(1) Including EUR 1 500 million for Spain, Greece and Portugal.
(2) General guarantee of 75% for all credits made available under lending operations under a guarantee contract signed between the Community

and the EIB on 30.10.78 and 10.11.78. By way of exception, a 100% guarantee applies to the emergency aid granted to Portugal in accordance
with the Council Decision of 7 October 1975.

(3) The Community has guaranteed EUR 5 497 million, of which EUR 141.5 million is covered by a 100% guarantee for Portugal.
(4) Non-member countries: Poland, Hungary.
(5) Non-member countries: Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania.
(6) Non-member countries: Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Baltic States and Albania.
(7) Non-member countries: Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(8) Non-member countries: Central and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, Asia and Latin America, South Africa.
(*) The amount outstanding has been increased by EUR 65.7 million to take account of the principal due and not paid at 30.06.01.

30

1.3.

Expected signature and disbursement of EIB loans

The EIB has supplied the figures used for calculation of the assumptions made for
drawing up Table 3 (EIB loans to non-member countries from its own resources).

Expected signatures

At 30 June 2001 a total of

€

204 million was still to be signed:

€

million

Mediterranean: former mandates
(4th protocol with Syria)

Central and Eastern Europe (1)

Asia and Latin America

FYROM

Bosnia

0

75

129

0

0

(1) The amount still to be signed for Central and Eastern Europe under the Decision of
14 April 1997

The foreseeable timetable for loan signatures under the new mandate of EIB loans
(2000-07) adopted by the Council on 22 December 1999 is shown in the financial
statement attached to the Commission proposal.

Disbursement forecasts

As regards disbursement of the loans still awaiting signature, it is assumed that nothing
will be paid in the year of signature, 10% in the second year, 25% a year between the
third and fifth years and 15% in the sixth year.

€

At 30 June 2001,
date. The total breaks down as follows:7

7 315 million still had to be disbursed against loans signed at that

Mediterranean countries

Central and Eastern Europe

Asia and Latin America

South Africa

FYROM

Bosnia

€

million

2 816

3 195

946

161

97

100

It is assumed that the rate of disbursement for the new mandate (2000-07) will be the
same as that set out above.

7

Based on a working assumption that 25% of the loan will be disbursed every year for four years
and that the average term will be fifteen years with a three-year period of grace.

31

1.4.

Payment of the budget guarantee

1.4.1

Borrowing/lending operations

In this type of operation, the Community borrows on the financial market and on-lends
the proceeds (at the same rate and for the same term) to Member States (balance of
payments), non–member countries (medium-term financial assistance) or firms (NCI,
Euratom).

The loan repayments are scheduled to match the repayments of the borrowings due from
the Community. If the recipient of the loan is late in making a repayment,
the
Commission must draw on its resources to repay the borrowing on the due date.

The funds needed to pay the budget guarantee in the event of late payment by the
recipient of a loan granted by the Community are raised as follows:

a)

b)

c)

d)

the amount required may be taken provisionally from cash resources in
accordance with Article 12 of Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1150/2000
of 22 May 2000, implementing Decision 94/728/EC, Euratom, on the system of
the Communities' own resources. This method is used so that the Community
can immediately repay the borrowing on the date scheduled in the event of late
payment by the recipient of the loan;

if the delay extends to three months after the due date, the Commission draws on
the Guarantee Fund to cover the default. The funds obtained are used to
replenish the Commission's cash resources;

the transfer procedure can be used to provide the budget heading with the
appropriations needed to cover the default; any margin available in the
guarantee reserve is drawn on first. This method is used when there are
insufficient appropriations in the Guarantee Fund and must be authorised in
advance by the budgetary authority;

the re-use of amounts repaid by debtors who have defaulted,
leading to
activation of the Community guarantee, allows payments to be made within a
short period of time always providing, of course, that there are recovered funds
available.

1.4.2. Guarantees given to third parties

The loan guarantee is in respect of loans granted by a financial institution such as the
European Investment Bank (EIB). When the recipient of a guaranteed loan fails to make
a payment on the due date, the EIB asks the Community to pay the amounts owed by the
defaulter in accordance with the contract of guarantee. The guarantee must be paid within
three months of receiving the EIB's request. The EIB administers the loan with all the
care required by banking practice and is obliged to demand the payments due after the
guarantee has been activated.

Since the entry into force of the Regulation establishing a Guarantee Fund for external
action,
the provisions of the Agreement between the Community and the EIB on
management of the Fund state that, after the EIB calls in the guarantee in the event of a

32

default, the Commission must authorise the Bank to withdraw the corresponding amounts
from the Guarantee Fund within three months.

If there are insufficient resources in the Fund, the procedure used for activating the
guarantee is the same as for borrowing/lending operations.

An implementation agreement was concluded between the Community and the EIB on
20 and 22 January 1999 to determine payment and repayment procedures in connection
with Community guarantees to the EIB.

2.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMUNITY'S
ESTIMATED LENDING CAPACITY IN RESPECT OF NON-MEMBER COUNTRIES
OVER THE PERIOD 1999-2001 UNDER THE GUARANTEE FUND MECHANISM
(TABLE 4)

2.1.

Reserve for loan guarantees to non-member countries

As agreed at the Edinburgh European Council,
the Interinstitutional Agreement of
29 October 1993 on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure
provided for the entry of a reserve for loan guarantees to non-member countries as a
provision in the general budget of the European Communities. This reserve is intended to
cover the requirements of the Guarantee Fund and, where necessary, activated guarantees
exceeding the amount available in the Fund, so that these amounts may be charged to the
budget.

The amount of the guarantee reserve is the same as in the financial perspective for
in the reserve was
2000-2006, viz.
€

200 million at 1999 prices. The amount

€

€

203 million in 2000 and will be

208 million in 2001.

The conditions for the entry, use and financing of the guarantee reserve are laid down in
the following decisions:

• Council Decision 94/729/EC of 31 October 1994 on budgetary discipline.

• Council Regulation (ECSC, EC, Euratom) No 2730/94 of 31 October 1994 amending
the Financial Regulation of 21 December 1977 applicable to the general budget of the
European Communities.

• Council Decision 94/728/EC of 31 October 1994 on the system of the Communities'

own resources.

2.2.

Bases for the calculation of the provisioning of the Guarantee Fund

The bases for the provisioning of the Fund are calculated by applying the appropriate rate
of guarantee (65%, 70%, 75% or 100%):

–

to the loan guarantees authorised by the Council and to the loan guarantees
proposed or being prepared by the Commission on the basis of the estimates of
loan signatures contained in the financial statements (EIB and Euratom loans);

33

–

to the loans (for financial assistance) authorised by the Council and to the loans
proposed or being prepared by the Commission.

The annex to Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 2728/94 of 31 October 1994
establishing a Guarantee Fund for external actions, which relates to the arrangements for
in the case of borrowing/lending
payments into the Guarantee Fund, states that,
operations or guarantees to financial bodies under a framework facility spread over a
number of years and with a microeconomic and structural purpose, payments into the
Fund will be made in annual tranches calculated on the basis of the annual amounts
indicated in the financial statement attached to the Commission proposal, adapted where
appropriate in the light of the Council decision.

For other Community borrowing/lending operations, such as loans for the balance of
payments of third countries, whether made in one or more than one tranche, payments
into the Fund are calculated on the basis of the total amount for the operation decided on
by the Council.

The annex to the Regulation establishing the Guarantee Fund states that, as from the
second year (in the case of operations spread over a number of years), the amounts to be
paid into the Fund will be corrected by the difference recorded on 31 December of the
previous year between the estimates that were taken as a basis for the previous payment
and the actual figure for the loans signed during that year. Any difference relating to the
previous year will give rise to a payment in the following year.

The annex states that, when it starts a payment procedure, the Commission will check the
situation with regard to the performance of the operations which were the subject of
previous payments and, where the commitment deadlines originally laid down have not
been met, will propose that this will be taken into account in calculating the first payment
to be made at the start of the following financial year for operations already under way.

In the second half of 2000, the budgetary authority accordingly adopted two transfers:

–

–

transfer 69/2000 so that payments could be made into the Guarantee Fund in
respect of macro-financial assistance for non-member countries (Tajikistan and
Moldova) and in order to pay the annual tranches provided for in the financial
statements for EIB loans for projects carried out in Croatia;

transfer 74/2000 in order to pay the annual tranches provided for in the financial
statements for EIB loans to consolidate and reinforce the EC-Turkey customs
union.

2.3.

Basis for the provisioning of the Fund in the event of a part guarantee

For EIB loans covered by an aggregate 75% guarantee, the Fund is provisioned on the
basis of 75% of the total amount of operations authorised.

The guarantee on the EIB loans authorised by the Council on 14 April 1997,
19 May 1998 and 14 December 1998 is limited to 70% of the total amount of credits
opened. The basis for provisioning is 70% of the annual forecast of signatures.

34

The guarantee on the EIB loans authorised by the Council on 29 November 1999 and
22 December 1999 is limited to 65% of the total amount of credits opened. The basis for
provisioning is 65% of the annual forecast of signatures.

2.4.

Provisioning of the Guarantee Fund

The amounts paid into the Fund are obtained by applying the rate of provisioning (14%)
to the calculation base set out above.

Pursuant to Articles 2 and 4 of the Regulation establishing the Guarantee Fund, the Fund
is endowed by payments from the general budget equivalent to 14% of the capital value
of the operations until it reaches the target amount. As the target amount was reached at
31 December 1997, the Commission, in accordance with the Regulation, submitted
proposals
in the
to review the rate of provisioning. These proposals appear
comprehensive report on the functioning of the Fund which the Commission drew up in
accordance with Article 3 of the Regulation (COM(1998) 168 final of 18 March 1998).
Regulation No 2728/94 establishing a Guarantee Fund for external action has been
amended by Council Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1149/1999 of 25 May 1999 under
which the provisioning rate for the Fund and the target amount is fixed at 9% from
1 January 2000.

2.5.

Margin remaining in the guarantee reserve

The margin remaining in the guarantee reserve is equivalent to the difference between the
reserve and the heading for the provisioning of the Guarantee Fund.

2.6.

Residual lending capacity

The residual lending capacity is the loan equivalent of the margin left in the reserve,
allowing for the guarantee rates in force.

35

3.

EXPLANATORY NOTES FOR COUNTRY-RISK INDICATORS (+ TABLES)

Standard footnotes

(1)

(2)

(3)

Includes only EC and EIB loans (outstanding disbursements) to CEEC, NIS and
MED

The higher the ranking number, the lower the creditworthiness of the country. No
ranking was published by Euromoney in March 1998.

Countries are rated on a scale of zero to 100; 100 represents the least chance of
default. A given country may improve its rating and still fall in the ranking if the
average global rating for all rated countries improves.

Abbreviations and English words used in tables

S&P

Standard and Poor's

CCFF= Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility

EFF=

Extended Financing Facility

SBA =

Stand-By Arrangement

STF=

Systemic Transformation Facility

est.=

Estimates

n.a. =

Not available

prelim.= Preliminary

36

Country-risk indicators
Country: Bosnia & Herzegovina (4)

(%)
(% change)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production

Federation
Republika Srpska

Unemployment (end of period) (5)

(% of labour force)

Federation
Republika Srpska

Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Federation (in KM terms)
Republika Srpska (DM based index) (6)

Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Federation
Republika Srpska

Balance of payments

(% change)

KM per DM
YUD per DM (7)
Croatian Kuna per DM
KM per EUR
(% of Entity GDP)

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance (8)
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period) (9)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

10

24
23
40,0
n.a.
n.a.

5
-14
1
6,0
3,7
1,96

-1,8
-5,1

697
-23,7
100

175
0,8

10

11
2
40,0
n.a.
n.a.

-1
14
1
6,3
3,9
1,96

-1,3
-5,1

649
-23,2
90

456
2,2

2985

3095

44,5
n.a.
n.a.
71,6
352
17
814
815

62,9
n.a.
n.a.
68,2
319
8
n.a.
20

0,1
0,3
1,6

5

12
6
40,1
n.a.
n.a.

2
15
1
3,3
3,9
1,96

-2,8
-3,8

732
-22,2
150

499
2,5

2584

100,0
n.a.
n.a.
59,4
276
12
n.a.
946

0,1
0,4
1,3

SBA
(5/98-5/01)
Yes

SBA
(5/98-5/01)
Yes

SBA
(5/98-5/01)
Yes

none
none

none

none

none

none
none

none

none

none

none
none
09/00 03/01
178
124
(185) (185)

none

none

(10)

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)

(10)

Data refer to the entire country unless otherwise indicated.
World Bank estimates, adjusted unemployment figures. Official figures are somowhat higher as there is a general tendency of over reporting.
Measured in DM using the RS parallel market exchange rate for FRY dinar (YUD)
YUD/DM exchange rate in the parallel market in the Belgrade area, as reported by the National Bank of FRY.
Excluding official transfers.
Foreign assets of the monetary authorities, excluding earmarked funds and blocked accounts; including foreign exchange held by the
payments bureaus.
Paris Club in 1998.

37

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

Country-risk Indicators
Country: Bulgaria

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Leva per US$)

3,5
-9,4
16,0
1,6
1,96

2,4
-5,0
17,0
7,0
1,96

5,8
15,3
16,4
11,4
1,96

General government balance

(% of GDP)

1,3

0,2

-0,7

6297
-0,6
364

3056
5,8

5740
-6,0
739

3222
6,4

6981
-5,0
865

3273
5,1

10072

9980

10071

1099
626
469
83,7
159,9
19,8
none
none

6,2
6,0
9,5

975
495
480
81,3
174,0
17,0
none
none

6,0
6,7
11,7

1101
546
555
78,1
167,0
16,6
none
none

6,1
6,6
9,5

EFF

EFF
(06/98-06/01) (06/98-06/01) (06/98-06/01)
yes

EFF

yes

yes

B2
B
09/98
93
(180)

B2
B

B2
B+

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

80 76
87 89
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
80 79
(136) (136)
28.6 30.3

74 74
(145) (145)
37.1 35

100 92
(136) (136)
22.9 26.3

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)

In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 28 August 2001
In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 7 September 2001

(1)

(4)
(5)

(2)

(2)

(3)

38

Country-risk indicators
Country: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Denar per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

2.9
4.5
34.5
-1,0
51,8

-1,8

1310
-8,7
112

340
2,3

1470

150,0
n.a.
n.a.
37,9
112,2
11,5
2,0
none

0,6
4,2
4,7

2.7
-2.5
32.4
2,3
60,3

-0,1

1190
-3,0
38

460
3,1

1490

160,0
n.a.
n.a.
42,1
125,2
13,4
none
22

0,7
5,6
7,0

5,1
3,5
32,2
6,1
65,3

3,5

1320
-3,1
122

710
4,5

1490

170,0
n.a.
n.a.
43,6
112,9
12,9
none
20

1,0
7,0
7,9

ESAF
(04/97-04/00)
no

ESAF
(04/97-04/00)
no

EFF/PRGF
(12/00-12/03)
no

none
none
09/98
143
(180)

none

none

none
none
03/99 09/99
146 160
(180) (180)

none
none
09/00 03/01
100 104
(185) (185)

none

none

none

none

(4)

(5)

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)

The current account deficit may be overestimated due to unreported remittances.
Debt service excluding IMF; it includes an estimate of debt service due to commercial creditors.

39

Country-risk indicators
Country: Lithuania

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

5,1
8,2
6,9
2,4
4,0

-4,6

5071
-12,1
921

1460
3,3

-3,9
-11,2
10,0
0,3
4,0

-7,8

4238
-11,2
478

1242
2,6

3,3
7,0
12,6
1,4
4,0

-2,8

5109
-6,0
375

1359
2,6

1684,0

2428,8

2474,3

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
22,9
57,3
20,0
none
none

1,8
8,1
4,6

-
-
-

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
22,0
48,4
20,9
none
none

1,5
6,8
3,3

SBA
(1/00-3/01)
yes

Ba1
BBB-

Ba1
BBB-

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
15,7
33,2
18,3
none
none

1,7
9,9
3,3

-
-
-

Ba1
BBB+
09/98
62
(180)

69 67
63 65
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
69 66
(136) (136)
36.1 38.3

77 71
(136) (136)
32.9 34.5

69 62
(145) (145)
43.7 44.0

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Litas per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)

In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 28 August 2001
In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 7 September 2001

(1)

(4)
(5)

(2)

(2)

(3)

40

Country-risk indicators
Country: Romania

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Lei per US$)

(4)

-4,8
-13,8
6,3
40,7
10951

General government balance

(% of GDP)

(5)

-5,0

-2,3
-7,9
6,8
54,9
18255

-3,4

9870
-3,7
1025

1526
1,6

9138

3415
2948
467
26,1
92,6
34,6
none
none

6,2
7,5
6,9

1,6
8,0
7,1
40,7
25926

-4,0

12120
-3,8
1009

2470
2,5

10303

1927
n.a.
n.a.
28,1
85,0
15,9
none
none

7,1
7,5
6,4

9519
-7,1
2040

1375
1,3

9916

3451
2897
554
23,7
104,2
36,3
none
none

7,8
7,7
8,0

SBA
(4/97-5/98)
no (7)

SBA
(8/99-3/00)
yes (8)

SBA
(8/99-2/01)
no (8)

B3
B-
09/98
82
(180)

B3
B-

B3
B

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

103 83
89 95
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
76 85
(136) (136)
31.2 28.7

85 89
(145) (145)
30.3 28.3

70 72
(136) (136)
34.5 33.8

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)

ILO methodology
Figure for 1999 is an estimate
For 2000, only medium and long term debt
Off track in September 1997
Cancelled with only two (out of five) tranches disbursed
In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 28 August 2001
In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 7 September 2001

(6)

(6)

(1)

(9)
(10)

(2)

(2)

(3)

41

Country-risk indicators
Country: Armenia

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Dram per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.

7,2
-2,5
9,3
-1,3
522

-3,7

229
-21,3
221

328
3,6

787

66,3
44,2
22,1
41,6
343,7
29,0
n.a.
n.a.

0,3
4,0
13,7

3,3
5,2
11,1
2,0
524

-5,2

247
-16,6
123

331
3,7

855

61,3
42,2
19,0
46,3
346,2
24,8
n.a.
n.a.

0,2
2,9
9,9

ESAF

ESAF

(12/98-11/99) (12/98-11/99)

no

yes

6,0
6,4
11,7
0,4
552

-4,9

307
-14,5
160

330
3,5

854

65,8
47,3
18,5
44,6
278,2
21,4
n.a.
n.a.

0,2
2,5
6,9

-

none
none
09/98
137
(180)

none

none

none
none

none
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

159 134
(180) (180)

131 114
(185) (185)

none

none

none

none

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

42

Country-risk indicators
Country: Belarus

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Rbs per US$)

8,3
12,0
2,4
181,7
220000

3,4
9,7
2,0
251,3
320000

5,8
8,0
2,0
108,0
720000

General government balance

(% of GDP)

-1,5

-2,9

-0,6

7100
-6,1
141,5

230,0
0,2

1854

185
n.a.
n.a.
18,5
26,1
2,6
n.a.
none

0,3
1,8
0,5

-

5949
-1,6
150,0

102,0
0,2

1900

195
n.a.
n.a.
22,9
31,9
3,3
n.a.
none

0,3
1,7
0,5

-

7380
-1,3
150,0

102,0
0,2

1880

182
n.a.
n.a.
18,2
25,5
2,5
n.a.
none

0,3
1,5
0,4

-

none
none
09/98
144
(180)

none
none

none
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

129 131
137 135
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
122 129
(136) (136)
11.9 13.4

122 121
(136) (136)
12.9 14.6

129 130
(145) (145)
14.4 14

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

43

Country-risk indicators
Country: Georgia

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Lari per USD)

(% of GDP)

(m USD)
(% of GDP)
(m USD)

(m USD)

(m USD)
(m USD)
(m USD)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m USD)
(m USD)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m USD
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

2,9
-2,7
4,1
10,6
1,8

-3,7

478
-11,1
221

123
1,2

1600

65,9
23,5
42,4
44,0
334,7
13,8
n.a.
n.a.

1,3
7,7
25,8

3,0
4,5
4,8
10,9
1,9

-4,5

477
-8,0
60

132
1,6

1700

99,3
49,2
50,1
60,0
356,4
20,8
n.a.
n.a.

1,1
6,9
24,6

ESAF
(07/98-06/99)
yes

ESAF
(07/98-06/99)
yes

1,9
10,8
5,1
4,6
2,0

-3,3

521
-8,1
77

110
1,1

1700

193,8
144,4
49,4
54,0
326,3
37,2
n.a.
yes

0,8
5,4
17,7

-

none
none
09/98
134
(180)
03/98 09/98
128 128
(136) (136)
10.6 10.9

none
none
03/99 09/99
141 150
(180) (180)
03/99 09/99
126 127
(136) (136)
10.9 10.8

none
none
09/00 03/01
133 150
(185) (185)
09/00 03/01
108 112
(145) (145)
21.0 18.2

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

44

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

-6,5
-11,0
1,9
18,2
8,3

-3,4

644
-19,7
81,0

167
1,5

1452

244,0
n.a.
n.a.
86,0
225,5
37,9
none
none

0,7
4,6
10,4

-3,4
-13,6
2,0
39,3
11,6

-3,2

469
-3,8
30,5

202
3,2

1,9
6,9
2,1
31,3
12,4

-1,0

597
-9,4
127,5

230
3,8

1465

1530

178,0
n.a.
n.a.
126,5
312,4
38,0
none
none

0,6
4,4
13,6

90,5
n.a.
n.a.
123,0
256,3
15,2
none
none

0,5
3,3
8,5

-

(1)

(4)

(2)

(3)

EFF

EFF

(05/96-05/99) (05/96-05/99)

yes

yes

B2
none
09/98
142
(180)

none

none

B2
none

Caa1
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

117 127
(180) (180)

none

none

140 134
(185) (185)
09/00 03/01
125 116
(145) (145)
15.8 17.6

Country-risk indicators
Country: Moldova

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Leu per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)

In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 28 August 2001

45

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

5,3
8,2
3,2
2,7
1,0

-3,8

586
-9,3
24

65
1,5

1193

35,5
22,8
12,7
91,0
203,6
6,1
n.a.
n.a.

0,5
5,2
10,5

3,7
5,6
3,0
31,3
1,4

-3,1

666
-3,4
21

58
1,7

1214

22,8
15,8
7,0
118,0
182,3
3,4
n.a.
n.a.

0,5
4,8
8,8

8,3
10,3
3,0
60,6
2,2

-0,6

792
-6,4
62

87
2,4

1300

58,7
43,8
14,9
136,0
164,1
7,4
n.a.
n.a.

0,5
3,9
6,4

ESAF

ESAF
(07/98-06/99) (07/98-06/99) (10/00-09/01)
yes

PRGF

yes

yes

none
none

134
(180)

none

none

none
none

none
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

139 142
(180) (180)

none

none

176 165
(185) (185)
09/00 03/01
130 134
(145) (145)
14.2 12.3

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

Country-risk indicators
Country: Tajikistan

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Somoni per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.

46

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

-1,9
-1,4
4,3
20,0
3,4

-2,8

17621
-3,1
747

782
0,6

-0,4
4,3
5,4
19,2
5,2

-2,4

16230
2,7
489

1090
0,8

5,8
12,9
5,3
25,8
5,4

-1,5

17712
4,7
587

1150
1,0

11700

11879

10368

2449
934
1515
27,4
66,4
13,9
none
yes

3,3
2,7
1,8

1964
860
1104
39,0
73,2
12,1
none
yes

3,3
3,1
2,3

2373
1039
1334
36,2
58,5
13,4
yes
yes

2,9
3,1
1,8

EFF

EFF
(07/98-06/01) (09/98-03/01) (09/98-03/01)
no

EFF

yes

no

B3
none
09/98
118
(180)

Caa1
none

Caa1
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

126 129
115 122
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
112 110
(136) (136)
17.2 18.7

117 117
(145) (145)
17.7 17.2

105 108
(136) (136)
20.5 19.8

(1)

(5)

(2)

(2)

(3)

Country-risk indicators
Country: Ukraine

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Hyrvnia per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance (4)

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.
(4)
(5)

On a cash basis and showing privatisation revenues as a financing item.
In the column for 2000, risk assessment as at 28 August 2001

47

footnotes

1998

1999

2000

5,1
7,2
~30
5,0
60,4

-3,6

10100
-1,9
500

6800
7,6

3,3
4,8
~30
2,6
69,3

-0,4

12300
0,0
460

4400
4,6

2,4
3,1
~30
0,3
75,3

9,9

21650
16,8
420

11900
12,2

30665

28300

25500

4525
3143
1993
64,9
280,1
44,8
none
454,9

7,2
2,3
6,9

4871
n.a.
n.a.
59,1
217,1
39,6
none
none

8,7
3,4
7,8

EFF
(05/95-05/98)
yes

CCFF
(05/1999)
yes

4507
n.a.
n.a.
47,9
113,0
20,9
none
none

10,7
4,6
5,4

-

none
none
09/98
103
(180)

none
none

none
none

03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01

96 85
113 117
(185) (185)
(180) (180)
03/98 09/98 03/99 09/99 09/00 03/01
93 93
(136) (136)
25.2 26.5

81 80
(145) (145)
33.1 31.6

97 96
(136) (136)
25.1 25.8

(1)

(2)

(2)

(3)

Country-risk indicators
Country: Algeria

(%)
(% change)
(% of labour force)
(% change)
(Dinars per US$)

(% of GDP)

(m US$)
(% of GDP)
(m US$)

(m US$)

(m US$)
(m US$)
(m US$)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(m US$)
(m US$)

(%)
(%)
(%)

Real GDP growth rate
Industrial production
Unemployment (end of period)
Inflation rate (CPI) (Dec/Dec)
Exchange rate (end of period)

General government balance

Balance of payments

Exports of goods and services
Current account balance
Net inflow of foreign direct investment
Official reserves, including gold (end of period)

m US$
months' imports of goods and services

External debt

Convertible currency external debt

(end of period)

Convertible currency debt service

principal
interest

External debt/GDP
External debt/exports of goods and services
Debt service/exports of goods and services
Arrears (on both interest and principal)
Debt relief agreements and rescheduling

Indicators of EU exposure

EU exposure/total EU exposure
EU exposure/external debt
EU exposure/exports of goods and services

IMF arrangements

Type
(Date)
On track

Indicators of market's perception of creditworthiness

Moody's long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
S&P long-term foreign currency rating (end of period)
Euromoney

Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
The Institutional Investor
Position in the ranking
(number of countries)
Credit rating

Footnotes
(1) (2) (3) See explanatory notes.

48