Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council under Council Decision 93/389/EEC as amended by Decision 99/296/EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions
Date: 2001-11-30
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU environmental policy, climate, combustion gases, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, greenhouse gas, stratospheric pollution

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 30.11.2001
COM(2001) 708 final

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND
THE COUNCIL

under Council Decision 93/389/EEC as amended by Decision 99/296/EC for
a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND
THE COUNCIL

under Council Decision 93/389/EEC as amended by Decision 99/296/EC for
a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.

2.

2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

3.

3.1.

3.2.

4.

4.1.

4.2.

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 4

Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 6

Compliance on reporting.............................................................................................. 6

Actual progress of the EU ............................................................................................ 7

Projected progress of the EU........................................................................................ 7

EC Monitoring Mechanism and purpose of the report................................................. 9

The EC Monitoring Mechanism .................................................................................. 9

Purpose of this report ................................................................................................... 9

Member States compliance with reporting requirements........................................... 12

Compliance with reporting timescales ....................................................................... 12

Compliance with reporting requirements on actual progress..................................... 12

4.2.1. Greenhouse gas emission inventories ........................................................................ 12

4.2.2. Data gaps on CO2, CH4 and N2O ............................................................................. 12

4.2.3. Data gaps on fluorinated gases................................................................................... 12

4.2.4. Data gaps on land use change and forestry (LUCF) .................................................. 13

4.3.

Compliance with reporting requirements on projected progress ............................... 13

4.3.1. Greenhouse gas emission inventories ........................................................................ 13

4.3.2.

Policies and measures ................................................................................................ 13

4.3.3.

Projections.................................................................................................................. 14

5.

5.1.

5.2.

Evaluation of actual progress ..................................................................................... 15

Introduction................................................................................................................ 15

Progress in the European Union................................................................................. 15

5.2.1.

Progress at European Union level .............................................................................. 15

5.2.2.

Progress at Member State level.................................................................................. 20

2

6.

6.1.

6.2.

6.3.

6.4.

6.5.

6.6.

Evaluation of projected progress................................................................................ 26

Comparison of Member States projections with the EU burden sharing agreement . 26

Summary of additional policies and measures for the member states ....................... 28

Community wide projections ..................................................................................... 30

Additional measures from the Community-wide study ............................................. 34

Key assumptions in models........................................................................................ 35

EU level policies and measures.................................................................................. 36

6.6.1.

From Cardiff and Gothenburg to Barcelona .............................................................. 36

6.6.2.

Strategy for Sustainable Development1 and the 6th Environmental Action Programme37

6.6.3.

European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) ........................................................ 38

6.6.4.

The way forward ........................................................................................................ 40

Annex Glossary, Abbreviations and Units ............................................................................ 41

1

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/eussd/index.htm.

3

                                                
1.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is the second progress report under Council Decision 93/389/EEC as amended
by  Decision 99/296/EC for  a  monitoring  mechanism  of  Community  CO2  and  other
greenhouse  gas emissions.  It  assesses the  actual  and  projected  progress  of  Member
States  and  the  Community  towards  fulfilling  their  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emission
commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)  and  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  The  Convention  was  aimed  at  stabilising  CO2
emissions  at  the  1990  level,  while  the  Kyoto  Protocol  sets  the  EU  a  target  of  –8%
from the 1990 level for six greenhouse gases by 2008-2012.

The report covers data on actual GHG emissions from 1990 up to and including 1999
as well as  emissions projections  up to  2010,  the  mid-point  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol’s
first commitment period.

Main findings:

(cid:1)  Greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land use change and forestry) in the EU in
1999 have decreased by 4% compared to 1990 and the EU  as a whole is in line
with its targets path for both 2000 and 2008-12. This favourable trend is mainly
due to reductions  in Germany  and the  UK.  However,  most  Member  States  were
well  above  their  target  path  and  more  than  half  are,  on  present  trends,  headed
towards substantially exceeding their agreed share of EU emissions in 2010.

(cid:1)  Member States’ projections suggest that existing policies and measures will not be
sufficient  to  continue  the  EU-wide  reductions  of  total  EU  greenhouse  gas
emissions (excluding land use change and forestry). Instead, progress made so far
will be  outweighed by further  increases.  All Member  States,  except  UK,  project
their  emissions  (by  2010)  to  be  above  their  Burden  Sharing  target.  Community-
wide projections show comparable results.

(cid:1)  This means that by 2010 at best a stabilisation of emissions at 1990 level will be
achieved.  The  Kyoto  target  of  –8%  is  still  valid  and  meeting  it  will  require
significant efforts from most Member States.

(cid:1)  Emission  trends  in  the  transport  sector  are  of  particular  concern.  The  sector  is
responsible  for  the  biggest  increase  of  actual  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  in
particular of CO2 and N2O. Furthermore, projections of GHG emissions from the
transport sector indicate a rise of more than 30% by 2010.

(cid:1)  Member  States  have  identified  additional  policies  and  measures  that  could  help
meeting  this  gap  by  about  210  Mt  CO2  eq,  or  –5%  from  1990  emissions.  The
missing 3% of about 110 Mt CO2 eq. will need to be closed by further measures
both at  Member State and  EU  level.  The  savings  of  about  190  Mt  CO2  eq.  that
have  been  identified  by  Germany  and  the  UK,  should  be  regarded  as  an  ‘over-
delivery’  of  reductions  that  cannot  be  taken  for  granted  by  the  rest  of  the
Community as a way of helping to meet the Kyoto target.

(cid:1)  EU-wide  policies  and  measures  complementing  action  by  Member  States  have
been  identified  by  the  European  Climate  Change  Programme.  Measures  in  an
advanced  stage  of  preparation  (e.g.  Directives  on  Emission  Trading,  Bio-fuels,
Promotion  of  Renewable  Energy  Sources  or  Energy  Performance  of  Buildings)

4

are  estimated  to  provide  a  cost-effective  reduction  potential  of  240 Mt CO2  eq..
The  realisation  of  this  technical  potential  depends  on  a  number  of  factors
including  the  accuracy  of  data,  political  acceptability  and  the  timeframe  within
which  they  are  implemented.  Additional  savings  were  also  identified  by  the
ECCP, but these are likely to be realised over longer time scales.2

(cid:1)  Reporting  by  Member  States  on  actual  progress  has  improved  compared  to  the
first  progress  report.  Reporting  on  projected  progress  has  not  significantly
improved. Due to a lack of detail on the methodologies used, on the timetable of
implementation of policies and measures and inherent uncertainties in projecting
future behaviour, all projections must be treated with considerable caution.

(cid:1)  A  future  Proposal  for  a  Review  of  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  under  Council
Decision  99/296/EC,  as  foreseen  in  COM  (2001)  580  final  will  need  to  make
provisions  for  extended  reporting  requirements  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol  and  a
forthcoming EU Emissions Trading scheme as well as enhanced provisions on the
reporting of national policies and measures.

2

Proposals  for  further  measures  are  included  in  ‘Category  2’  (11)  and  ‘Category  3’  (22)  of  the  ECCP
June report. These measures need further work before a political decision about their realisation can be
made. The ECCP identified an overall cost-effective technical potential (< 20 €/t Co2 eq.) of between
664 – 765 Mt/Co2 eq.

5

                                                
2.

CONCLUSIONS

In  this  second  progress  report  under  Council  Decision  93/389/EEC  as  amended  by
Decision 99/296/EC, the EC monitoring mechanism has seen continued progress in
Member States’ reporting on emission inventories. There has  been  limited progress
compared  with  the  first  progress  report  with  regard  to  reporting  on  national
policies/measures  and  projections  -  only  nine  Member  States  have  provided
quantification of their additional measures.

Evaluation  of  actual  progress  was  undertaken  successfully  with  the  main  emission
data  available  for  almost  all  Member  States.  Data  gaps  on  fluorinated  gases  were
significantly smaller than in last year. Data on land-use is not yet included, since the
report was drawn up before the Bonn agreement. Assessing projected progress was
more  difficult  since  the  reported  detail  concerning  quantification  of  policies  and
measures, methodologies used and underlying assumptions continues to vary widely
between Member States.

Member  States’  projections  were  generally  supported  by  Community-wide
projections  on  future  progress.  However,  all  projections  should  be  treated  with
caution, due to considerable uncertainties in some of the underlying assumptions and
the  lack  of  comparable  methodologies.  These  uncertainties  suggest  that  a  ‘safety
margin’  should  be  applied  when  identifying  remaining  EU  emission  reduction
obligations towards achieving the Kyoto Protocol target. To be certain of complying
with its Kyoto commitments the EU should therefore consider further reductions for
which additional policies will have to be developed.

The following chapters provide more specific conclusions.

2.1.

Compliance on reporting

(cid:1)  Reporting  on  actual  progress  (greenhouse  gas  inventories)  has  improved  over
recent  years  with  most  countries  using  the  Common  Reporting  Format,  a
standardised  tool  developed  by  the  UNFCCC.  However  the  Commission
encounters  great  problems  in  receiving  the  information  from  Member  States  on
time.

(cid:1)  Data  gaps  on  the  fluorinated  greenhouse  gases  (HFCs,  PFCs,  SF6)  are
significantly smaller than last year. Only two Member States failed to provide any
data at all and another provided an incomplete time series.

(cid:1)  Reporting  on  policies,  measures  and  projections  was  not  significantly  improved
for  most  Member  States  compared  with  the  first  progress  report.  There  is  an
urgent  need  for  many  Member  States  to  improve  the  quantitative  assessment  of
the measures as well as providing the information on time.

(cid:1)  Information is still incomplete regarding information on methodologies used and
the assumptions underlying the projections and should be improved with regard to
the clarity of documents, for example by adopting common format tables for key
information.

6

(cid:1)  Compliance  with  the  monitoring  mechanism  guidelines  is  insufficient  and  more

efforts have to be undertaken to apply them to their full extent.

2.2.

Actual progress of the EU

(cid:1)  Greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Union  have  decreased  by  4 %  since
1990. CO2 emissions were slightly below 1990 levels in 1999 (-1.6 %), CH4 and
N2O emissions decreased  by  17 %  and  14 %  respectively.  These  figures  suggest
that in 1999, the European Union, as a whole, was in line with its target path for
both 2000 and 2008-20123. However, this positive situation is mainly due to large
emission  reductions  in  Germany  and  the  UK.  Together  with  Luxembourg  they
were  the  only  Member  States  well  below  their  emissions  target  paths  in  1999.
France,  Finland  and  Sweden  were  near  but  all  other  Member  States  were  well
above their target paths. A cautious approach in interpreting progress in the EU as
a whole is therefore needed.

(cid:1)  CO2  emissions  per  capita  for  the  EU-15  fell  slightly  between  1990  and  1999,

again largely due to reductions in Germany and the UK.

(cid:1)  All Member States showed large increases in transport emissions

2.3.

Projected progress of the EU

Progress based on Member States’ projections

(cid:1)  With existing policies and measures, Member State projections suggest total EU
emissions of greenhouse gases (excluding land use change and forestry) will be at
1990 levels in 2010. Compared to 1999 data this will mean that overall emissions
will increase. CO2 is projected to increase by  3.1  %  (mainly  due  to  increases  in
the  transport  sector)  and  fluorinated  gases  by  66  %.  Decreases  are  projected  for
CH4  and  N2O  by  31 %  and  17 %  respectively  over  the  period  1990  to  2010.
Stabilisation  of  overall  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  2010  at  1990  levels  means
that  the  emission  reduction  target  is  still  about  –7.5 %.  Compared  to  last  year’s
projections  this  presents  an  increase  of  0.9 %  in  the  gap  between  commitments
and actual efforts. Due to the continuing uncertainty related to the implementation
of policies and the methodologies used, concern about the accuracy of this figure
must be expressed.

(cid:1)  Additional policies and measures identified by the Member States  are calculated
to  close  this  gap  by  about  210  Mt  CO2  eq.  or  5%(assuming  Germany  and  UK
meet but do not exceed their Burden Sharing target). Again this is lower than last
years’  projections  that  amounted  to  270  Mt  CO2  eq  /yr.  However,  six  Member
States  have  not  yet  adequately  identified  or  assessed  additional  policies  and
measures. In addition, the effects of these policies and measures  are subject to a
significant  degree  of  uncertainty  arising  from  their  nature  (these  tend  to  be
policies in the early stage of development) and the methodologies used.

3

The analysis compares actual emissions in 1999 with hypothetical values in 1999 on a linear target path
from the base year to 2000 and 2008-2012 respectively.

7

                                                
(cid:1)  If  Germany  and  the  UK  deliver  the  savings  identified  as  additional  measures  in
their  national  strategies,  the  EU  as  a  whole  would  more  than  meet  the  Kyoto
commitment  (reaching  –10%  of  1990  levels).  However,  “over-compliance”  by
some Member States should not be taken for granted by other Member States as a
way of helping to meet the overall EU target under the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover,
the  EU  has  to  prepare  for  more  important  emission  reductions  under  the  2nd
Commitment Period, for which significant and sustained efforts will be  required
by all Member States.

Comparison between Member State and Community wide projections

(cid:1)  Since  Member  States  projected  some  increases  in  emissions  they  have  come
closer to Community-wide projections, which expect greenhouse gas emissions to
increase by about 1% (compared to 1990 emissions). The gap  now identified by
Member States and the European Commission is between –8% and –9% of 1990
emissions.

(cid:1)  However, with regards to CO2 the Community-wide study projects an increase of
4%,  compared  to  3%  from  the  Member  States.  There  is  a  larger  difference  for
methane  with  –18%  from  the  Community-wide  projection  and  –31%  from  the
Member States. Nitrous oxide projections show a similar pattern in the two sets of
projections.

Common and co-ordinated policies and measures

(cid:1)  In  view  of  the  difficulties  experienced  by  many  of  the  Member  States  to  reach
their burden sharing target, common and co-ordinated policies and measures will
be  an  important  supplement  to  reinforce  and  strengthen  their  national  climate
change strategies.

(cid:1)  Additional  common  and  co-ordinated  measures  have  been  identified  by  the
European  Climate  Change  Programme  (ECCP)  with  an  estimated  cost-effective
emission  reduction  potential  for  the  ones  in  an  advanced  state  of  preparation  of
about  240 MtCO2  eq.  If  the  potential  of  these  advanced  measures  could  be
realised before 2010, they would contribute about 5% of the 8% Kyoto emission
reduction  target,  thereby  effectively  supporting  Member  State  policies  and
measures. In total the ECCP could identify cost-effective options costing less than
20  €/t  CO 2eq.  totalling  664  -  765  MtCO2eq.  However,  the  realisation  of  the
technical potential depends on a number of factors such as the  accuracy of  data,
the overlap with Member State policies and measures, the timeframe within which
measures  are  implemented  and  public  acceptance.  In  order  to  give  a  better
indication of the potential of cost-effective measures at EU level for the 1st Kyoto
commitment  Period  the  report  makes  a  distinction  between  those  that  are  'at  an
advanced stage of preparation' and those for which 'more work is needed'.

8

3.

EC MONITORING MECHANISM AND PURPOSE OF THE REPORT

3.1.

The EC Monitoring Mechanism

The monitoring mechanism for anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gases was
established  in  June  1993,  following  the  adoption  of  Council  Decision  93/389/EEC,
by the Council of Environment Ministers. This was revised in April 1999, (Council
Decision 99/296/EC) to allow for the updating of the monitoring process in line with
the inventory requirements incorporated into the Kyoto Protocol (KP).

The  monitoring  mechanism  is  an  instrument  to  assess  accurately  and  regularly  the
extent of progress being made towards the Community’s commitments under the UN
Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  (UNFCCC)  and  the  Kyoto  Protocol.
Progress  is  evaluated  by  the  Commission,  in  consultation  with  the  Member  States,
and is based on National Programmes, (incl. updates) supplied by the Member States
as described in Article 5(1) and Article 2(2)  of Council Decision 1999/296/EC and
other relevant information. The National Programmes should include (a) information
on actual progress and (b) information on projected progress.

Member States are required by 31 December each year to submit inventory data for
the two previous  years4 and any updates of  previous  years  (including  the  base  year
19905) and their most recent projected emissions for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and
20206.  Any  updates  to  the  National  Programmes  e.g.  new  policy  measures  should
also be reported to the Commission by 31 December. If no change has occurred, this
should be formally indicated to the Commission.

For  the  purpose  of  facilitation  and  harmonisation  of  collection,  reporting  and
evaluation  of  data  the  Monitoring  Committee,  established  under  Council  Decision
1999/296/EC, set-up two Working Groups. These Working Groups developed  a set
of  guidelines7  covering  both  the  collection  and  evaluation  of  emission  inventories
and national programmes. The Monitoring Committee approved the guidelines on 1
September  2000.  The  information  that  Member  States  provided  for  this  report
already includes many of the elements in the guidelines, but often to limited extent.

3.2.

Purpose of this report

This  report  presents  the  results  of  the  evaluation  process  under  the  EC  Monitoring
Mechanism  and  assesses  actual  and  projected  progress  of  Member  States  towards

4

5

6

7

Member  States  have  to  report  their  inventories  annually  to  the  Commission  by  31  Dec  year  n:
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions and  CO2  removals  by  sinks  for  the  year  n-1;  Emissions  by  source  and
removals by sinks of the other greenhouse gases; final data for the year n-2 and provisional data for the
year n-1.
Base year is 1990, except for HFC, PFC, SF6 for which the base year can be selected by the Party to be
either 1990 or 1995.
Decision 99/296/EC requires reporting of projected emissions and removals for the period 2008 to 2012
and as far as possible, for 2005. However, in addition the Monitoring Mechanism “Guidelines for the
methodology  of  the  evaluation  of  progress  towards  the  KP  targets  and  for  reporting  of  national
programmes”  require  reporting  of  the  projected  emissions  and  removals  also  for  the  year  2015  and
2020.
Guidelines: Part 1: Guidelines for Member States and EC Annual Inventories; Part 2: Methodology for
the Evaluation of Progress and for the Contents of National Programmes, Brussels, 1 September 2000.

9

                                                
fulfilling  the  Community's  commitments  under  the  UNFCCC  and  the  Kyoto
Protocol.

Under  Article  4  of  the  UNFCCC  adopted  in  Rio  de  Janeiro  in  June  1992,  the
European  Community  agreed  to  adopt  policies  and  measures  with  the  aim  of
returning their anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, individually
or jointly, to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

At  the  third  Conference  of  the  Parties  (COP3)  to  the  UNFCCC  held  in  Kyoto  in
December 1997, the Parties adopted the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, which sets
different  binding  emission  targets  for  a  number  of  Parties  including  the  European
Community (EC). Under this agreement the EC agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions by 8 % by 2008-2012, from 1990 levels. The implementation rules for the
Kyoto protocol were agreed at the sixth Conference of Parties held in Bonn in July
2001  (“Bonn  Agreement”)  and  the  EU  and  Member  States  are  now  preparing  for
ratification. The overall target of –8% has since been distributed on a differentiated
basis to individual Member States under an ‘EU burden sharing’ mechanism agreed
upon  by  the  Council  of  Ministers  in  June  1998.  The  agreed  targets  are  shown  in
Table 3.2.1.

Table 3.2.1 Member States’ commitments in accordance with article 4 of the Kyoto
Protocol agreed upon by the Council of Ministers (EU burden sharing, June 1998)

Member State

Austria
Belgium
Denmark8
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom

Commitment (% change in emissions of the six GHG basket
for 2008 to 20012 relative to 1990 base year levels)

-13
-7.5
-21
0
0
-21
+25
+13
-6.5
-28
-6
+27
+15
+4
-12.5

8

In connection with the agreement Denmark made the following statement “Denmark is able to reduce
it’s emissions by 17% in the first Commitment Period compared to it’s 1990 level of about 80 million
tonnes  corrected  CO2  equivalents  through  domestic  policies  and  measures  and  present  measures
adopted  by  the  Community.  In  making  it’s  legal  commitment  to  a  21%  reduction  as  set  out  in  the
agreement,  Denmark  has  assumed  the  further  elaboration  and  adoption  of  common  and  co-ordinated
policies and measures (CCPMS) prior to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol”.

10

                                                
The evaluation of progress towards these targets has two main components:

(cid:1)  Evaluation of actual progress

The evaluation of actual progress is based on emission inventories of Member States and the
Community  and  includes  the  comparison  of  base  year  inventories  with  the  latest  available
inventories to establish actual trends of emissions and a comparison with emission objectives
at Member State and Community level.9

(cid:1)  Evaluation of projected progress

Projected  progress  is  assessed  by  the  collection  and  evaluation  of  adopted  and  future
(planned,  or  currently  under  discussion)  policies  and  measures  at  both  national  and
Community level. This evaluation is based on emission projections of Member States and the
Community. It includes an assessment of the consistency and soundness of these projections
and their key underlying assumptions and parameters in the context of National Programmes.

The  evaluation  is  based  largely  on  documents  provided  by  Member  States.  This  includes
documents produced specifically for submission under the Monitoring Mechanism and other
documents,  such  as  national  climate  change  strategies  and  National  Communications  to  the
UNFCCC.  In  the  case  of  projected  progress,  the  evaluation  has  also  taken  into  account  the
results of Community-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions.

The following chapters in this report evaluate compliance with reporting requirements. This is
done by comparing the most recent information that is available from the Member States with
the requirements under the Monitoring Mechanism and the Guidelines for reporting adopted
by the Monitoring Mechanism Committee on 1st September 2000 (Chapter 4). The report then
summarises the results of the evaluation of actual progress, based on work done by the EEA
(Chapter  5)  and the  evaluation  of  projected progress, based  on the information as  described
above and as was available by July 2001 (Chapter 6).

9

Information based on the EEA report ‘EC and Member States Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends 1990-
1999’(EEA, 2001).Data exclude emissions and removals from land use change and forestry (LUCF).

11

                                                
4.

MEMBER STATES COMPLIANCE WITH REPORTING REQUIREMENTS

4.1.

Compliance with reporting timescales

Compliance  with  reporting  timescales  (31st  December  each  year)  under  the
Monitoring Mechanism is still poor for most Member States. This is particularly so
for  the  reporting  of  projected  progress.  Most  Member  States  reported  1999
inventories by April 2001 and data on national policies and measures even later.

4.2.

Compliance with reporting requirements on actual progress10

4.2.1. Greenhouse gas emission inventories

The  evaluation  of  actual  progress  depends  upon  the  availability  of  the  relevant
national  inventories  from  which  to  compile  a  complete  EC  inventory  covering  all
15 Member States. By 1 April 2001, almost all Member States (except Belgium and
Luxembourg)  had  reported  data  for  1999.  Using  a  data  gap  procedure  for  Belgium
and  Luxembourg,  the  European  Commission  was  able  to  compile  a  complete
inventory  for  CO2,  CH4  and  N2O  emissions  for  the  full  period  from  1990  to  1999.
Data was provided in accordance with the 1996 Guidelines of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, for most Member States, the newly introduced
Common  Reporting  Formats  (CRF)  adopted  at  the  5th  Conference  of  the  Parties
(COP 5) in 1999. Any data gaps should be avoided to produce completely consistent
inventories and further progress is needed to achieve this.

4.2.2. Data gaps on CO2, CH4 and N2O

For  CO2,  CH4  and  N2O  a  data  gap  procedure  has  been  applied  for  Luxembourg
(1991-1993, 1999) and Belgium (1999)11.

4.2.3. Data gaps on fluorinated gases

Data  gaps  on  the  fluorinated  greenhouse  gases  (HFCs,  PFCs,  SF6)  as  reported  by
Member States by 1 April 2001 are significantly smaller than in previous years. Only
for  Ireland  and  Luxembourg  were  no  data  available  by  April  2001.  For  Belgium  a
data gap procedure had to be used for the missing years.

10

11

The  information  in  this  section  has  been  taken  from  “Annual  European  Community  Greenhouse  Gas
Inventory  1990-1999,  May  2001”, prepared  by  the  European  Environment  Agency  and  it’s  European
Topic  Centre  on  Air  and  Climate  Change  and  the  EEA  report  “European  Community  and  Member
States greenhouse gas emission trends” (EEA, 2001).
The data gap filling procedure was to take the emissions reported for the most recent previous year as
the first estimates. However, for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the method used the latest
estimates reported by the Member States in combination with trend information for more recent years
from  latest  calculations  of  CO2  emissions  from  fossil  fuels  by  Eurostat.  In  June  2001  Belgium
submitted data for 1998 and 1999, which suggests that the Belgian greenhouse gas emissions in 1998
and 1999 as compiled within the EU inventory are underestimated to some extent. After the deadline of
1  April,  Luxembourg  submitted  data  for  1999,  but  data  for  1991-1993  is  still  outstanding.  The  data
submitted by Luxembourg suggests that Luxembourg's greenhouse gas emissions in 1999 as compiled
within  the  EU  inventory  are  slightly  overestimated.  In  accordance  with  the  Monitoring  Mechanism
guidelines (agreed in September 2000) the latest data from Belgium and Luxembourg will be included
in the next annual EU greenhouse gas inventory, to be finalised 15 April 2002.

12

                                                
4.2.4. Data gaps on land use change and forestry (LUCF)

Data on CO2, CH4 and  N2O emissions used in  this report do not include emissions
and  removals  from  land  use  change  and  forestry.  It  is  only  very  recently  (political
agreement  at  the  resumed  COP  6,  Bonn,  July  2001  to  be  formally  confirmed  at
COP7, Marrakech) that outstanding methodological decisions on CO2 sinks under the
Kyoto  Protocol  have  been  agreed.  Reporting  requirements  on  sinks  are  now  under
development  by  IPCC,  but  will  only  be  available  at  a  later  stage.  Data  on  carbon
sinks were not therefore available for this report.

4.3.

Compliance with reporting requirements on projected progress

4.3.1. Greenhouse gas emission inventories

The  evaluation  of  projected  progress  requires  information  on  all  policies  and
measures under consideration and  also on the  emission projections for the  Member
States.  Policies  and  measures  under  consideration  include  existing  ones  (in  the
process  of  being  implemented)  and  additional  ones  (for  future  implementation).
Projections  include  estimates  of  emission  reduction  effects  of  existing  measures  (a
‘business-as-usual’  scenario)  and  projections  on  the  effects  of  additional  measures.
For most Member States, very little additional information has been provided during
2001 and the quality of their reporting is not significantly improved compared to the
first progress report. For some Member States, the information provided during 2000
was  already  relatively  comprehensive  (for  example  those  Member  State’s  with
Climate Change Strategies). Therefore the lack of additional information is probably
related to the lack of anything significantly new to report.

To  improve  the  situation  and  to  facilitate  information  exchange  and  comparison
between  projections,  a  questionnaire  was  sent  to  Member  States.  The  aim  of  the
questionnaire was to gather information on the methodology used for the projections.
The  additional  information  obtained  was  limited  for  most  Member  States.  Ten
Member States replied with some additional information, five Member States (Spain,
Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg and Austria12) did not return the questionnaire.

4.3.2.

Policies and measures

(cid:1)  Finland and  Ireland  have  produced national Climate  Change  Strategies since  the
first progress report and their reporting of policies and measures has improved.

(cid:1)  Spain, Greece,  Sweden  and  Italy  have  provided  additional  information  since  the
first progress report. In the cases of Spain and Greece, this information is limited
and does not improve the quality of their reporting compared to 2000.

(cid:1)  Most  countries  provide  a  good  level  of  detail  on  the  objectives  of  policies  and

measures and the status of implementation.

12

Austria  is  developing  new  projections  for  its  3rd  National  Communication  and  provided  some
information on those projections to the Monitoring Mechanism.

13

                                                
(cid:1)  Quantification (in terms of greenhouse gas emission savings in millions of tonnes)
of  policies  and  measures  (including  existing  measures  as  well  as  additional
measures) is very limited for the majority of Member States. This is also the case
for information on compliance costs related to them.

4.3.3.

Projections

(cid:1)  Sources  of  information  on  projections  differ  considerably:  National  Climate
Change Programmes are the most comprehensive set of data received and they are
available for nine Member States (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Ireland,  Luxembourg, Netherlands, UK). By November 2001, all Member States
will have to produce  a  3rd  National  Communication under UNFCCC which  can
only  be  taken  in  next  years’  progress  report  and  it  is  expected  that  many  will
present new projections in that Communication.

(cid:1)  Two  more  Member  States  (Finland  and  Ireland)  provide  quantification  of

additional measures, in comparison to the first progress report.

(cid:1)  Some Member States have provided additional information on the parameters and
modelling assumptions used  for the projections in response  to  the questionnaire.
However, significant effort would be required to obtain enough detail to compare
different projections.

(cid:1)  According to the  reporting  guidelines (FCCC/CP/1999/L.3/Add.1, paragraph  35)
Parties are requested to present projections on a gas-by-gas basis. A few countries
give splits of projections by gas and by sector, but unlike the inventories there is
no  detailed  common  format  for  reporting  or  common  definition  of  sector.  This
also makes comparison of projections difficult.

Projections generally suffer from a lack of quantification of the effects of individual
policies and measures as already discussed. This is of particular concern because this
makes the evaluation of projected progress difficult.

14

5.

EVALUATION OF ACTUAL PROGRESS

5.1.

Introduction

The  purpose  of  this  section  is  to  contribute  to  the  evaluation  of  progress  of  the
European Community and its Member States towards meeting their greenhouse gas
commitments  under  the  UNFCCC  and  the  Kyoto  Protocol  based  on  information
compiled  by  the  EEA6.  The  intention  has  been  to  perform  a  consistent  and
comparable  assessment  of  the  contribution  of  each  Member  State  towards  meeting
the  greenhouse  gas  targets  of  the  EC  as  a  whole.  The  analysis  does  not  aim  to
evaluate compliance of Member States with their targets, but rather their contribution
to the EC greenhouse gas emissions in 1999. The progress evaluation is carried out
by  comparing  1990-1999  greenhouse  gas  emission  data  of  the  EC  and  its  Member
States  with  two  (hypothetical)  linear  target  paths:  (1) the  UNFCCC  target  path  for
2000;  and  (2) the  Kyoto  target  path  for  2008-2012.  By  calculating  the  deviations
from  these  target  paths  in  1999,  a  measure  of  actual  progress  of  the  EC  and  its
Member States in 1999 is established.

5.2.

Progress in the European Union

5.2.1.

Progress at European Union level

Total  EC  greenhouse  gas  emissions  decreased  by  4 %  between  1990  and  1999
(Figure  5.2.1),  but  trends  for  the  different  gases  varied  considerably.  Assuming  a
linear  target  path  for  1990  to  2000  (for  CO2)  and  1990  to  2010  (midpoint  of  the
Kyoto Protocol target period) for all Kyoto Protocol gases, Figure 5.2.1  shows that
the EU was, in 1999, in line with both target paths (for stabilisation by 2000 and for a
reduction by 8% by 2008-2012).

Figure 5.2.1 EU15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with targets for 2000 and 2008-
2012 (excl LUCF)

120

110

x
e
d
n
I

100

90

80

100,0

98,4

96,0

92,0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Greenhouse gas emissions

Target path 2010

GHG target 2010

Target path 2000

CO2 emissions

CO2 target 2000

Note: the linear target path is not intended as an approximation of future EU emission trends, but is used to
evaluate EU greenhouse gas emissions in 1999 compared to the EU targets.

15

In 1999, total EU15 greenhouse gas emissions were 4030 Mt CO2 equivalents, which was 2 %
below 1998 and 4 % below 1990 levels. The most important reasons  for  reductions in 1999
compared to 1998 were the continuing fuel shift from coal to gas in electricity production, a
relatively  mild  winter  and  therefore  less  need  for  heating,  and  one-off  measures  in  the
chemical industry.

The trends for the different gases varied considerably. Figure 5.2.2 illustrates that the share of
CO2  and  fluorinated-gases  in  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions  increased,  whereas  the
importance  of  CH4  and  N2O  declined.  CO2  is  by  far  the  most  important  greenhouse  gas
accounting for 81 % of total GHG emissions in 1999, but emissions were slightly below 1990
levels in 1999 (-1.6 %). Large increases of CO2 emissions from transport were outweighed by
reductions from fossil fuel combustion in energy and manufacturing industries.

CH4 emissions account for 9 % of total EC greenhouse gas emissions and decreased by 17 %
between  1990  and  1999.  The  main  reasons  for  declining  CH4  emissions  were  reductions  in
solid  waste  disposal  on  land,  the  decline  of  coal  mining  and  falling  cattle  numbers.  N2O
emissions went down by 14 % and are responsible for 8 % of total greenhouse gas emissions.
The  main  reason  for  N2O  emission  cuts  were  reduction  measures  in  the  chemical  industry
(adipic acid production) in recent years.

Fluorinated-gas emissions show opposing trends: whereas HFC and SF6 emissions increased
sharply between 1990 and 1999 (+66 % and +34 % respectively), PFC emissions reduced by
38 %.  Despite  the  sharp  increase  of  Fluorinated-gas  emissions  since  1992  (+31 %),  they
account  for  only  2 %  of  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  The  decline  of  fluorinated-gas
emissions in 1999 compared to 1998 is due to large emission reductions of HFCs in the UK.

Figure 5.2.2 Greenhouse gas emissions according to gases (excl. LUCF)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

F-gases

N2O

CH4 

CO2

F-gases

N2O

CH4 

CO2

Greenhouse gas
emissions

)
0
0
1
=
0
9
9
1
(

x
e
d
n

I

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

0
9
9
1

1
9
9
1

2
9
9
1

3
9
9
1

4
9
9
1

5
9
9
1

6
9
9
1

7
9
9
1

8
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

0
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

Fluorinated-gases include HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions.

Source: EEA (2001)

The main driving forces: In 1999, real GDP grew by 2.5 % in the EU, energy use increased
by  0.9  %,  compared  to  1998  (Figure  5.2.3).  This  compares  to  decreases  of  greenhouse  gas
emissions  by  2 %  and  of  CO2  emissions  by  1.4 %.  Therefore,  in  1999,  greenhouse  gas
emissions  de-coupled  from  economic  growth  and  also  from  energy  use.  Over  the  whole

16

 
period  from  1990  to  1999,  the  absolute  (total)  greenhouse  gas  emissions  de-coupled  from
GDP  growth  by  24  index  points  (percent  see  Fig.  5.2.3),  and  from  energy  use  by  14  index
points  (percent).  As  the  EU  population  grew  by  3.2 %  between  1990  and  1999,  EU
greenhouse  gas  emissions  per  capita  decreased  from  11.5  tonnes  in  1990  to  10.7  tonnes  in
1999.

Figure 5.2.3. EC greenhouse gas emissions and driving forces (real GDP, heating degree
days13, gross inland energy consumption, population) and greenhouse gas emissions per
capita

x
e
d
n

I

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

T
o
n
n
e
s

GHG emissions
per capita

Greenhouse gas
emissions

Real GDP

Heating degree
days

Energy
consumption

Population

0
9
9
1

1
9
9
1

2
9
9
1

3
9
9
1

4
9
9
1

5
9
9
1

6
9
9
1

7
9
9
1

8
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

0
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

Source: EEA (2001) and Eurostat

Sectoral analysis: To analyse the sectoral greenhouse gas trends in more detail and to focus
on the most important sources, key source indicators are identified on the basis of the  IPCC
Tier 1 method14. The aim of the key source analysis is to identify source categories that cover
95 % of GHG and/or show substantial changes in emissions between 1990 and 1999. In a first
step, 14 key source categories have been identified covering 95 % of EC GHG emissions. In a
second step four categories have been added because of their remarkable trend performance.
Therefore, in the analysis 18 key source categories have been identified for the EU covering
96 % of total EC GHG emissions.

The emission trends of the key source categories vary widely. Figure 5.2.4 shows the ranking
of key source categories according to absolute changes between 1990 and 1999.

13

14

Temperature variations can be measured using so-called heating degree days. Heating degree days are
the sum of temperature differences between a certain constant indoor temperature and the daily average
of  outdoor  temperature.  Therefore,  lower  average  outdoor  temperatures  lead  to  higher  heating  degree
days.
The  IPCC Tier  1  method  is  a  basic  approach  to  identify  key  source  categories,  i.e.  source  categories
which have a significant influence on a country's total greenhouse gas inventory in terms of the absolute
level  of  emissions,  the  trend  in  emissions,  or  both.  (see  Chapter  7  of  IPCC  (2000)  Good  Practice
Guidance  and  Uncertainty  Management  in  National  Greenhouse  Gas  Inventories.  Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change).

17

                                                
Figure 5.2.4: Absolute GHG emission trends 1990-1999 in the EC key source categories
(million tonnes of CO2 equivalents)

       Transport (CO2)

HFCs

       Transport (N2O)

SF6

       Manure Management (N2O)

       Other Sectors (CO2)

      Mineral Products (CO2)

s
e
c
r
u
o
s

y
e
K

      Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas (CH4)

      Manure Management (CH4)

PFCs

      Agricultural Soils (N2O)

      Enteric Fermentation (CH4)

       Other (CO2)

 Fugitive Emissions from Solid Fuels (CH4)

 Solid Waste Disposal on Land (CH4)

 Manufacturing Industries and Construction (CO2)

  Chemical Industry (N2O)

 Energy Industries (CO2)

-150

-100

-50

Absolute change in Tg of CO2 equivalents

0

50

100

150

Source: EEA (2001)

Sectors  with  increases  in  emissions:  CO2  emissions  from  transport  are  the  second  largest
single  source  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  EU  accounting  for  20.5 %  of  total
greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  1999.  And  CO2  emissions  from  transport  have  risen  rapidly:
between  1990  and  1999  emissions  increased  by  18 %  or  127 million  tons  in  EU15  (mainly
CO2,  but  also  N2O  emissions).  Transport  includes  emissions  from  fossil  fuel  combustion  in
road 
transportation,  national  civil  aviation,  railways,  national  shipping,  and  other
transportation. The main reason for the strong growth of CO2 emissions from transport is the
increase in road transport volumes and - associated with this - rising road fuel consumption.
This occurs in almost all Member States, but in particular in Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece,
Austria  and  Luxembourg.  N2O  emission  increases  from  transport  are  mainly  due  to  the
increased use of catalytic converters15.

The  second  key  source  category  with  substantially  increasing  emissions  is  HFC  emissions
from  industrial  processes.  Some  HFCs  are  used  as  substitutes  for  ozone  depleting  CFCs,
which have been gradually phased out in the 1990s.

Sectors  with  reductions  in  emissions:  The  largest  reductions  in  absolute  terms  were
achieved in the energy sector (electricity and heat production) mainly due to fuel shifts from
coal to gas in several Member States and efficiency improvements (above all in Germany).

The second largest were reductions of N2O in the chemical industry in the UK, Germany and
France mainly due to specific measures in the adipic acid production in these countries.

15

Catalytic converters reduce air pollution but produce N2O emissions as a by-product (due tochemical
interaction with sulphur in petrol). Improved catalytic converters and low sulphur fuels are expected to
reduce these N2O emissions in the future.

18

 
                                                
The  third  largest  were  reductions  of  CO2  emissions  from  fossil  fuel  combustion  in  the
manufacturing industries mainly due to economic restructuring and efficiency improvements
in the German manufacturing industry after German reunification.

Substantial  CH4  emission  reductions  were  achieved  from  solid  waste  disposal  on  land
(landfilling) and fugitive emissions from solid fuels. These  reductions are mainly due to the
implementation of the landfill directive and related legislation and the decline of coal mining.

Table 5.2.1 provides more quantitative information on the increase or decrease of greenhouse
gas emissions for different sectors such as energy industries.

Table 5.2.1 Variations of greenhouse gas emissions 1990-1999 of EU15 and the Member
States in percent

EU15

AT

BE

DK

FI

FR

DE

GR

Greenhouse gases (without L
UCF)

CO2 (without LUCF)

-4.0% +2.6% +2.8%

-1.6% +5.9% +2.6%

+4.0%
(-4.6%)

+7.4%
(-4.0%)

-1.1% -0.2% -18.7% +16.9%

+2.8% +5.0% -15.4% +16.7%

CH4

N2O

HFCs

PFCs

SF6

-16.7% -15.5% -5.0% -3.6% -36.0% -8.6% -41.3% +14.1%

-14.1% +12.1% +8.8% -12.7% -7.9% -17.0% -33.9% -1.5%

+23489

+66.3%

% +58.6%

-38.1% -97.4% -100.0%

 -

 -

+113.8

+300.4

% +82.8%

%

+10373
7%

+5262.1

% -40.1% -36.6% -92.3%

+33.7% +41.0% -38.3% +50.6% -54.5% +9.8% +40.5%

 -

1.A.1 Energy industries (CO2)

-8.9% -8.1% -18.2% +7.7% +13.6% -6.3% -20.1% +16.0%

1.A.2 Manufacturing industries (CO2)

-8.9% +16.1% +14.2% +1.3% +10.4% +0.4% -29.2% -3.9%

1.A.3 Transport (CO2)

1.A.4 Other Sectors (CO2)
[Small combustion]

Greenhouse gases (without
LUCF)

CO2 (without LUCF)

CH4

N2O

HFCs

PFCs

SF6

+18.2% +30.0% +14.9% +17.4% +2.1% +16.5% +14.7% +27.0%

0.1% -2.2% 17.0% -12.1% -15.9%

8.3% -14.3% 48.6%

IE

IT

LU

NL

PT

ES

SE

UK

+22.1% +4.4% -43.3% +6.1% +22.4% +23.2% +1.5% -14.0%

+8.0%

+32.7% +4.3% -46.3%

(+7.1%) +31.2% +24.3% +2.5% -8.9%

+3.7% +2.6% -3.7% -20.1% -1.5% +29.7% -9.4% -28.3%

+11.6% +0.4% +13.4% +14.8% +12.4% +6.8% +1.4% -35.9%

+722.0

 -

 -

%

 - +71.8%

-27.6%

 -

+6.7%

 - +94.7%

 -

-5.5%

+216.1

+33473

%

% -45.4%

-16.0% -25.2% -70.3%

+188.7

% +18.5% +81.5%

 -

 -

 -

1.A.1 Energy industries (CO2)

+42.2% +2.5% -94.5% +9.4% +14.1% +18.4% +9.4% -21.5%

1.A.2 Manufacturing industries (CO2) +10.6% -7.4% -66.5% +4.0% +17.7% +12.3% +3.2% -6.2%

1.A.3 Transport (CO2)

1.A.4 Other Sectors (CO2)
[Small combustion]

+96.2% +19.1% +54.6% +19.3% +66.2% +44.7% +6.1% +4.3%

+1.8% +7.2% +36.1% +2.9% +46.0% +22.6% -18.6% +4.8%

Note (1): “-“ means that 1990 emissions were zero or no data was available.
Note (2): For Denmark and the Netherlands data that reflect adjustments for variations in electricity trade and
temperature respectively are given in brackets.

19

5.2.2.

Progress at Member State level

Table 5.2.2 (see also Figure 5.2.5) shows the greenhouse gas emission trends and the
distance to target indicator for Member States. The distance-to-target indicator (DTI)
is a measure for the deviation of actual emissions in 1999 from a linear target path to
the target (as discussed in Section 5.1).

Nine  Member  States  reduced  their  emissions  compared  to  1998,  but  only  five
Member States were below base year levels in 1999.

The  overall  EC  greenhouse  gas  emission  trend  is  dominated  by  the  two  largest
emitters  Germany  and  the  UK,  accounting  for  about  40 %  of  EU  greenhouse  gas
emissions.  These  two  Member  States  achieved  total  greenhouse  gas  emission
reductions of 330 million tons of CO2 equivalents (compared to 1990).

The  main  reasons  for  the  favourable  trend  in  Germany  are  efficiency  increases  in
German thermal electricity production and the economic restructuring in the five new
Länder  after  the  German  reunification.  Accordingly,  German  CO2  emissions  from
energy and manufacturing industries declined by 83 and 57 million tons respectively
between 1990 and 1999. The reduction of GHG emissions in the UK was primarily
the result of the liberalisation of the energy market and the subsequent fuel switches
from  oil  and  coal  to  gas  in  the  electricity  production.  CO2  emissions  from  energy
industries declined by 49 million tons between 1990 and 1999 in the UK. In addition,
substantial  N2O  emission  reductions  were  achieved  in  the  chemical  industry  (-
26 million tons of CO2 equivalents).

A recent study16 has analysed exactly the question of what the performance in terms
of GHG reduction of both countries (Germany and UK) would be, if these countries
had not had  these  one-off  reductions.  A  diverse  set  of  environment  policies,  which
were increasingly introduced over the past decade in both countries, had a significant
impact and account for at least 50 % of the reduction of emissions since 1990. The
emission reductions due to the special circumstances in these two countries account
for about 34 %17 of reductions in the EU since 1990.

The third and fourth largest emitters, France (14 %) and Italy (13 %), show opposing
trends.  Whereas  France  was  slightly  below  1990  levels  in  1999,  Italy's  GHG
emissions were higher in 1999  compared to  1990. In France, large  reductions were
achieved  in  N2O  emissions  from  the  chemical  industry,  but  CO2  emissions  from
transport  increased  considerably.  Italian  GHG  emissions  rose  between  1990  and
1999 primarily in the transport sector and in electricity production.

Spain  as  the  fifth  largest  emitter  in  the  EU  accounts  for  9 %  of  total  EC  GHG
emissions and increased emissions by more than 20 % between 1990 and 1999. The
main sources contributing to the increase are the same as in Italy, i.e. transport and
electricity production.

16

17 

Greenhouse gas reductions in Germany and the UK - Coincidence or policy induced? An analysis for
international  climate  policy  (Fraunhofer  Institut  für  Systemtechnik  und  Innovationsforschung  (ISI),
Science  Policy  and  TechnologyPolicy  Research  (SPRU)  Deutsches  Institut  für  Wirtschaftsforschung
(DIW) Karlsruhe, Brighton, Berlin; June 2001).
Working estimate based on data from the study mentioned above.

20

                                                
In  1999,  Germany,  Luxembourg  and  the  United  Kingdom  were  well  below  their
Kyoto  target  paths.  France,  Finland  and  Sweden  were  near  to  their  linear  Kyoto
target  paths.  All  other  Member  States  were  well  above  their  Kyoto  target  paths
(Denmark, Spain, Ireland and Portugal by more than 10 index points = percent).18

Table 5.2.2 Greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents (excl. land-use change and
forestry) and Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012

1990
(MtCO2 eq)

1999
(MtCO2 eq)

change
1998-1999
(%)

change 1990 -
19991 (%)

Targets 2008-
2012 under
Kyoto Protocol
and EU burden
sharing (%)

Distance-to-
target
indicator
(DTI) (index
points = % )

76.9

79.2

0.0%

136.7

140.4

-3.4%

2.6%

2.8%

-13.0%

-7.5%

8.5

6.1

-4.6%

4% (-4.6%)

-21.0%

13.5 (4.9)

70.0

77.1

73.0

76.2

-0.8%

545.7

544.5

-2.2%

-1.1%

-0.2%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark2

Finland

France

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Germany

1206.6

982.4

-3.7%

-18.7%

105.4

123.3

-0.7%

16.9%

53.5

65.4

518.3

541.1

2.5%

0.9%

4.6%

22.1%

4.4%

-43.3%

Luxembourg

10.8

6.1

Netherlands

215.8

230.1

-2.9%

6.1%

Portugal

64.6

79.3

Spain

305.8

380.2

2.9%

6.1%

22.4%

23.2%

Sweden

69.5

70.7

-2.6%

1.5%

0%

0%

-21%

25%

13%

-6.5%

-28%

-6%

27%

15%

4%

-1.1

-0.2

-9.3

5.7

16.3

7.3

-30.7

8.8

10.2

16.5

-0.3

-8.4

-0.4

United Kingdom

741.9

637.9

-6.5%

-14.0%

-12.5%

EU Total

4198.6

4029.8

-2.0%

-4.0%

-8.0%

1) For the fluorinated gases most Member States have selected a base year other than 1990 (namely 1995), as
allowed for under the Kyoto Protocol. However, for the analysis of EU emissions trends in this report 1990
emissions data have been used for the base year for all gases, for consistency reasons.
2) For Denmark, data that reflect adjustments for electricity exchange in 1990 are given in brackets. These data
are used to monitor progress towards Denmark’s national target under the EU burden sharing agreement. For the
EU total, non-adjusted Danish emission data have been used, according to the “UNFCCC guidelines on
reporting and review “ adopted 1999 at CP.5 in decision 3 ((FCCC/CP/1999/7)

Source:EEA (2001)

18

The  Danish  distance-to-target  indicator  is  13.5  index  points  (percent)  for  non-adjusted  data  and  4.9
index points (percent), if Danish greenhouse gas emissions, as requested by Denmark, are adjusted for
electricity trade in 1990.

21

                                                
Germany, the UK and Luxembourg were well below their CO2 targets for 2000 (Table 5.2.3).
All other Member States were well above their CO2 target paths for 2000. Denmark, Ireland,
Spain and the Netherlands were 10 index points (percent) or more above their CO2 emission
target paths in 1999.19 Four Member States do not have targets for CO2 for 2000.

For most Member States, CO2 emissions fell between 1998 and 1999 but the general trend is
for increasing emissions compared to 1990.

Table 5.2.3 CO2 emissions in million tons (excl. LUCF)

1990
(MtCO2 eq)

1999
(MtCO2 eq)

change 1998-
1999 (%)

change 1990 -
1999 (%)

UNFCCC and
national targets
(%)

Distance-to-
target
indicator (DTI)
(index points
= percent)

0%

-5%

-5%

5.9

7.1

11.9 (0.5)

Austria

Belgium

Denmark1

Finland

France

62.1

65.8

0.4%

114.0

117.0

-4.1%

5.9%

2.6%

53.0

62.5

57.0

64.2

-0.6%

-5.4%

7.4% (-4.0%)

385.5

404.7

-1.5%

2.8%

5.0%

no target

no target

no target

no target

Germany

1014.5

858.5

-3.3%

-15.4%

no target

no target

Greece

Ireland

Italy

84.3

31.6

98.5

41.9

437.7

456.5

Luxembourg

10.2

5.4

-0.9%

16.7%

4.7%

0.5%

5.2%

32.7%

4.3%

-46.3%

Netherlands2

161.3

174.1

-3.8%

8.0% (7.1%)

Portugal

44.1

57.9

Spain

226.1

281.1

3.8%

4.7%

Sweden

55.1

56.5

-2.9%

United Kingdom

583.5

531.5

-2.2%

Total

3325.5

3270.5

-1.4%

31.2%

24.3%

2.5%

-8.9%

-1.6%

15%

20%

0%

0%

-3%

3.2

14.7

4.3

-46.3

10.7 (9.8)

no target

no target

12%

0%

0%

0%

13.5

2.5

-8.9

-1.6

1) See note 2 in Table 5.2.1
2)  For  the  Netherlands,  data  that  reflect  adjustments  for  temperature  variations  in  1990-1999  are  given  in
brackets. The Dutch national target takes these adjustments into account.

Source: EEA (2001)

19

Denmark  was  only  then  near  its  CO2  emission  targets  path  for  2000  if  the  adjustments  for  electricity
trade (requested by Denmark) is applied.

22

                                                
Table  5.2.4  illustrates  to  what  extent  most  Member  States  reduced  CH4  emissions  between
1990 and 1999 (as indicated because of declining solid waste disposal on land, reduced coal
mining and falling cattle numbers). Only the cohesion states (Greece, Ireland and Spain) and
Italy  increased  CH4  emissions.  Again,  Germany  and  the  UK  achieved  the  bulk  of  the
reductions in absolute terms (-70 million tons of CO2 equivalents) between 1990 and 1999. In
relative terms,  Finland, the Netherlands and  Austria  achieved substantial CH4 emission cuts
(apart from Germany and the UK) mainly in the waste sector (landfill).

Table 5.2.4 CH4 and N2O emissions in million tons CO2 equivalents

M EM BER STATE

1990

1999

Change 1990-
1999 

1990

1999

Change 1990-
1999 

C H 4  emissio ns

N 2 O emissio ns

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU-15

Source: EEA (2001)

11,3

12,9

5,9

6,1

65,3

117,0

9,5

12,8

40,2

0,5

27,1

12,9

34,7

6,8

77,1

440

9,5

12,2

5,6

3,9

59,7

68,7

10,8

13,3

41,3

0,5

21,7

12,7

45,0

6,2

55,2

-15,5%

-5,0%

-3,6%

-36,0%

-8,6%

-41,3%

14,1%

3,7%

2,6%

-3,7%

-20,1%

-1,5%

29,7%

-9,4%

-28,3%

2,0

9,6

11,0

8,4

94,8

66,2

10,4

9,1

39,7

0,2

19,8

7,6

41,2

7,1

66,9

2,3

10,5

9,6

7,7

78,7

43,7

10,2

10,1

39,9

0,2

22,7

8,6

44,0

7,2

42,9

366

-16,7%

394

338

12,1%

8,8%

-12,7%

-7,9%

-17,0%

-33,9%

-1,5%

11,6%

0,4%

13,4%

14,8%

12,4%

6,8%

1,4%

-35,9%

-14,1%

Spain  increased  CH4  emissions  by  30 %  between  1990  and  1999  (+10 million  tons  of  CO2
equivalents); CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal  on land  increased more than  average
(+76 %).  In  Greece  and  Italy  increases  of  CH4  emissions  in  the  waste  sector  played  a
dominant  role,  whereas  in  Ireland  the  increased  CH4  emissions  were  mainly  from  enteric
fermentation.

In  most  Member  States,  N2O  emissions  increased  between  1990  and  1999  mainly  in  the
transport  sector.  The  main  reason  for  this  was  the  increasing  penetration  of  catalytic
converters  in  petrol-engined  cars.  The  largest  increases  of  N2O  emissions  in  absolute  terms
were  in  the  Netherlands  and  Spain  (+3 million  tons  of  CO2  equivalents  each).  In  the
Netherlands emissions increased mainly in the chemical industries and from agricultural soils,
whereas Spanish N2O emissions occurred mainly from transport and manure management.

The largest cuts in N2O emissions were achieved in Germany, the UK and France mainly due
to emission reduction measures in the adipic acid production. Denmark and Finland reported
reduced N2O emissions mainly in the agricultural sector (agricultural soils).

Fluorinated-gas  emissions  grew  in  all  Member  States  except  for  the  UK  (Table  5.2.5).  The
main reason for rapidly growing fluorinated-gas emissions in the EU is the phase out of ozone
depleting  substances  like  chlorofluorocarbons  under  the  Montreal  Protocol  and  the
replacement  of  these  substances  with  HFCs  (mainly  in  refrigeration,  air  conditioning,  foam

23

production  and  as  aerosol  propellants).  PFC  emissions  mainly  occur  in  primary  aluminium
production and the production of semiconductors, but have declined between 1990 and 1999
in most Member States. The main sources of SF6 emissions which increased in most Member
States,  are  the  casting  and  production  of  primary  and  secondary  magnesium  and  the
manufacture and use of gas insulated switchgear in the electricity sector.

Table 5.2.5 HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions as reported by Member States by 1 April
2001 in Gg (=thousand tons) of CO2 equivalents

EC Member State

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

Total

HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6
HFC
PFC
SF6

4
963
518
332
63
335
0
0
43
0
1
71
2253
3195
2195
2340
2694
3896
935
367
0
-
-
-
351
237
198
-
-
-
5144
2432
145
0
0
0
2894
828
78
1
440
81
11374
2281
724
25,627
13,502
8,283

6
974
683
332
63
335
0
0
61
0
1
48
1514
2469
2216
2340
2352
4350
1107
315
0
-
-
-
355
231
230
-
-
-
4863
2437
100
0
0
0
2574
787
84
3
427
82
11859
1790
776
24,954
11,847
8,965

9
576
725
332
63
335
3
0
89
0
1
32
1061
2147
2238
2470
2138
4876
908
222
0
-
-
-
359
206
249
-
-
-
4594
2099
106
0
0
0
2869
782
86
4
414
82
12346
959
833
24,957
9,606
9,651

12
48
823
332
63
335
30
0
135
0
1
26
804
1650
2262
3750
2012
5401
1607
130
0
-
-
-
355
204
272
-
-
-
5107
2118
110
0
0
0
2258
794
90
17
402
88
12905
811
889
27,178
8,232
10,431

17
54
1033
332
63
335
58
0
122
7
1
26
818
1390
2288
3980
1676
5784
2144
82
0
-
-
-
623
212
293
-
-
-
6449
1890
148
0
0
0
3885
785
98
47
390
97
13814
980
1061
32,174
7,524
11,284

546
16
1175
332
63
206
126
0
107
30
1
14
1302
1350
2314
3130
1764
6238
3253
78
0
-
-
-
919
255
321
-
-
-
6724
1867
174
0
157
1
5595
790
118
94
389
115
15205
1094
1134
37,256
7,825
11,917

625
15
1246
418
63
206
278
0
61
78
1
14
2186
1410
2387
2580
1830
5808
3746
74
0
-
-
-
761
161
327
-
-
-
7524
2042
160
0
157
1
6412
759
127
141
343
103
16290
905
1270
41,039
7,761
11,711

718
18
1148
527
63
239
344
4
73
168
1
16
3095
1471
2444
3450
1554
5688
3960
64
0
-
-
-
1097
167
351
-
-
-
7884
2154
182
0
157
1
6923
784
151
239
316
146
18447
661
1263
46,851
7,414
11,701

816
21
955
527
0
206
503
14
59
246
1
12
3752
1661
2405
4278
1709
5473
3744
54
0
-
-
-
1332
187
420
-
-
-
8695
2469
132
0
157
1
7015
750
175
303
306
92
20183
652
1289
51,394
7,979
11,221

870
25
730
527
0
206
621
30
65
317
29
32
4815
1915
2411
4278
1709
5473
3744
28
0
-
-
-
2885
172
386
-
-
-
8836
2594
137
0
157
1
9146
696
225
375
329
96
6206
678
1314
42,620
8,361
11,076

Note (1): For Belgium values are given in italics where emission estimates have been taken from the most recent
previous year.

Source: EEA (2001)

More  than  80 %  of  EU  Fluorinated-gases  are  emitted  by  five  Member  States  (Netherlands,
Germany, Spain, France and the UK). There were large increases in absolute terms in Spain
(+6 million  tons  of  CO2  equivalents)  and  the  Netherlands  (+4 million  tons  of  CO2
equivalents),  whereas  large  reductions  were  achieved  by  the  UK  (-6 million  tons  of  CO2
equivalents) due to emission reduction measures in HCFC production in 1999.

24

Figure 5.2.5  summarises the  results  of comparing the  greenhouse  gas  emissions  of  Member
States with their linear target paths for 2008-201220.

Figure  5.2.5  Distance-to-target  indicators  (in  index  points  =  percent)  for  the  Kyoto
Protocol and EU burden sharing targets of EU Member States21

Spain

Ireland

Denmark 1)

Portugal

Netherlands

Austria

Italy

Belgium

Greece

France

Sweden

Finland

United Kingdom

Germany

Luxembourg

-30,7

EU-15

16,5

16,3

13,5

10,2

8,8

8,5

7,3

6,1

5,7

-8,4

-9,3

-0,2

-0,3

-1,1

-0,4

-40,0

-30,0

-20,0

-10,0

0,0

10,0

20,0

1) The Danish DTI is 4.9 index points (percent), if Danish greenhouse gas emissions are adjusted for electricity
trade in 1990.

Source: EEA (2001)

20

21

Some  MS  have  stressed  that  during  the  Kyoto  Committment  Period  not  only  domestic  policies  and
measures but also Flexible Mechanism may be used in order to fulfill the committment. In some MS,
activities  under  the  Flexible  Mechanisms  have  already  started,  but  will  not  appear  in  the  MS
inventories.
Distance to target path in percent, target path is a straight line from base year emission level (1990) to
target  levels  in  2010;  the  DTI  figures  in  percent  (the  bars)  show  the  deviations  between  what  should
have been achieved and what has been, under the assumption that reductions in percent of 1990 levels
would take place linear.

25

                                                
6.

6.1.

EVALUATION OF PROJECTED PROGRESS

Comparison  of  Member  States  projections  with  the  EU  burden  sharing
agreement

This section compares the latest ‘with measures’ projections undertaken by Member
States  for  the  year  2010  with  their  EU  burden  sharing  commitments.  This
comparison  is  useful  in  revealing  the  ‘gap’  between  what  current  policies  and
measures  are  expected  to  deliver  and  the  Member  States  and  EU’s  commitment
under  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  However,  it  should  be  noted  that  the  ‘with  measures’
scenarios for different Member States are mostly not comparable as the cut-off date
for inclusion of policies is different. Chapter 6.3 compares these projections prepared
by  the  Member  States,  with  the  results  of  the  latest  Community-wide  emission
projection analysis.

Table 6.1.1 summarises the present situation, showing the individual Member State
commitments and the most recent ‘with measures’ projections for 2010. Also shown
is the gap i.e. the difference between the ‘with existing measures’ projections and the
Commitment  under  the  burden  sharing  agreement.  Member  States’  projections
suggest that for the EU as a whole greenhouse gases will be approximately stabilised
(-0.5%)  at  the  1990  level  by  2010  with  the  measures  currently  implemented.  This
would  result  in  an  expected  gap  of  about  8%  (actual  figure  7.5  %)  between  the
effects of existing policies and measures and the Kyoto target (318 MtCO2 equiv. in
2010  in  absolute  terms).  This  compares  with  aggregated  projections  in  the  first
progress  report  which  gave a  1%  fall  in  emissions  and  thus  an  approximate  gap  of
7 % (actual figure 6.6 %) to the Kyoto target.

However,  a  more  detailed  analysis  shows  that  the  contribution  of  existing  policies
and measures to national targets varies significantly across Member States, reflecting
the different degree of policy development between countries. The UK and Germany
make a large contribution to the overall savings22 with the UK showing an expected
over delivery with measures that have been introduced since the Kyoto Protocol was
agreed  (1997),  but  other  countries  such  as  Austria,  Ireland,  Spain  or  Portugal  still
require significant effort to meet their targets.

These  projections  are  subject  to  considerable  uncertainty  arising  from  both
uncertainty in the assumptions made in the projections and in the degree to which the
policies and measures will finally deliver the assumed reductions. For some Member
States this uncertainty has been discussed in their national programmes/information,
but  for  most  the  information  is  not  sufficient  to  provide  any  quantification  of  the
uncertainty.  Overall  the  unequal  contribution  by  MS  towards  their  burden  sharing
commitments and the degree of uncertainty related to the projections as such raises
concerns over the accuracy of the identified 8% gap between the projected emissions
and the Kyoto target.

22

For  a  discussion  of  these  savings  see  “Greenhouse  gas  reductions  in  Germany  and  the  UK  -
Coincidence  or  policy  induced?  An  analysis  for  international  climate  policy”  (Fraunhofer  Institut  für
Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Science Policy and TechnologyPolicy Research (SPRU)
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Karlsruhe, Brighton, Berlin; April 2001).

26

                                                
Table 6.1.1 Comparison of Member States’ ‘with measures’ total emissions projections
(excluding LUCF) compared with the Kyoto commitments

Base year
from
projection
(MtCO2)23

Base year from
EEA report
(2001) (MtCO2)

EU Burden
sharing

Commitment
implied by
burden sharing
(MtCO2)

Scenario with
existing p&ms
(MtCO2) in
2010

Scenario with
existing p&ms
% change in
2010

Gap
(MtCO2)
24

 gap (in %
of 1990)

Austria25

Belgium 26

Denmark27

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK28

77.0

114.6

76.4

77.1

526.1

1208.4

99.3

53.7

543.0

12.4

219.0

60.0

309.7

70.9

776.2

76.9

136.7

70.0

77.1

545.7

1206.6

105.4

53.5

518.3

10.8

215.8

64.6

305.8

69.5

741.9

Total EU

4223.7

4198.6

-13%

-8%

-21%

0%

0%

-21%

25%

13%

-7%

-28%

-6%

27%

15%

4%

-12.5%

-8%

-10.0

-8.6

-16.1

0.0

0.0

7.6

15.5

-14.2

12.8

59.1

-253.8

-234.4

24.8

7.0

-35.3

-3.5

-13.1

16.2

46.5

2.8

-97.0

-340.1

28.8

21.0

44.0

-2.9

39.8

35.4

69.3

12.1

-115.5

-21.6

9.9%

13.6%

-18.6%

16.6%

11.2%

-19.4%

29.0%

39.1%

8.1%

-23.4%

18.2%

58.9%

22.4%

17.1%

-14.9%

-17.6

-24.1

-1.8

-12.8

-59.1

-19.4

-4.0

-14.0

-79.3

-0.6

-52.9

-19.2

-22.8

-9.3

18.5

-22.9%

-21.1%

-2.5%

-16.6%

-11.2%

-1.6%

-4.0%

-26.1%

-14.6%

-4.6%

-24.2%

-31.9%

-7.4%

-13.0%

2.4%

-0.5%

-318.4

-7.5%

Table  6.1.2  shows  the  results  of  the  ‘with  existing  measures’  projection,  broken  down  by
greenhouse  gas.  This  reveals  that  for  the  EU  as  a  whole,  CO2  emissions  are  expected  to
increase by 3.1 % between 1990 and 2010, while emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are
both  projected  to  fall  substantially,  -31  %  and  -17%  respectively.  Information  for  the
fluorinated  gases  is  less  comprehensive  and  so  it  is  difficult  to  draw  firm  conclusions.
However, for those countries that have provided data, an increase of 37 Mt CO2 equivalent or
66% is projected by 2010 compared to the base year29.

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

Base  year emissions are those quoted in Member States’ projections. In view of the annual inventory
updates, the base year values used in the projections quoted often do not  match the  most recent 1990
estimates,  which  are  also  shown  in  the  table  and  in  5.2.2.  Base  year  estimates  may  change  due  to
enhanced methodology, which aim at more accurate and more complete inventory data.
This  is  the  gap  between  the  commitments  under  the  EU  burden  sharing  agreement  and  the  projected
emissions  in  2010  and  is  calculated  using  the  base  year  emissions  from  the  projections  to  maintain
consistency.
The  projection  figures  for  Austria  do  not  include  fluorinated  gases  and  are  from  the  draft  climate
change strategy.
Base  year  emissions  taken  from  Belgium’s  information  on  emissions  projections  includes  only
emissions from fossil fuels.
For Denmark, the base year emissions from the projections take account of adjustments for electricity
trade in 1990, because the Danish target refers to adjusted data. The figures given in the table  for the
Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium are all uncorrected for temperature.
The  UK  ‘with  measures’  projections  include  estimates  of  the  impact  of  some  major  new  policies
introduced since Kyoto. These policies are expected to save about 24 MtCO2 in 2010.
Community-wide projections for fluorinated gases are discussed in Chapter 6.3.

27

                                                
Table 6.1.2 Member State ‘with measures’ projections split by greenhouse gas

Change in emissions between Base Year
and 2010 (MtCO2 equivalent)

Change in emissions between Base Year
and 2010 (%)

CO2

CH4

N2O Fluorinated

gases

CO2

CH4

N2O Fluorinated

gases

Austria

Belgium

Denmark30

Finland

France

10.5

14.4

-11.5

13.9

71.2

-2.9

0

-1.0

-2.6

0

1.1

-2.4

-0.1

-11.7

-13.8

Germany

-158.7

-61.8

-25.1

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

28.8

19.8

10.4

-3

46

29.8

55.6

10.6

-0.7

-9.8

0

-14

1.7

4.6

-1

-33.5

-34.3

0.6

-2.4

0

1

2.8

-3.3

0.9

-23

Total EU

104.4

-133.5

-63.7

0.7

1.6

13.4

16.3

1.0

0.1

3.3

1.9

1.6

-3.2

36.7

-26%

17%

13%

0%

52%

-19%

-17%

-22%

283%

-39%

-1%

1000%

17%

19%

-25%

-15%

-16%

-53%

-37%

34%

63%

2%

-5%

-20%

-26%

9%

-52%

12%

10%

29%

69%

25%

19%

-6%

7%

-5%

12%

5%

44%

-11%

-17%

11%

-45%

-35%

100%

-20%

3.1% -30.9% -16.9% 65.7%

170%

150%

400%

550%

30%

1000%

6.2.

Summary of additional policies and measures for the member states

The  previous  section  has  suggested  existing  measures  identified  by  Member  States
will stabilise emissions at 1990 levels which leaves a gap of close to 8% to the EU’s
target  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  The  objective  of  Member  States’  current  climate
change  programmes  is  to  close  this  gap  through  the  development  and  future
implementation of additional policies and measures.

Table  6.2.1  compares  the  required  emissions  reduction  in  order  to  reach  the  Kyoto
target with the savings to be expected from additional policies and measures (where
these  have  been  quantified).  The  table  shows  that  only  nine  Member  States  have
provided  quantification  of  their  additional  measures.  Six  Member  States  (Belgium,
Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) did not provide quantification of
these measures.

30

Change between base year and 2008-2012.

28

                                                
In all Member States the savings from additional measures are expected to amount to
about  402  million  tonnes  of  CO2  equivalent.  This  includes  a  remarkably  large
contribution from Germany. If Germany and the UK were to go as far as to meet, but
not exceed as predicted, their commitments under the EU burden sharing agreement,
31.  This  would
the  savings  from  additional  measures  would  total  only  209  Mt  CO2
result  in  a  shortfall  of  111  Mt  CO2 eq  between  the  ‘with  additional  measures’
projection at 2010 and the EU’s Kyoto commitment, which would have to be met by
further,  as  yet  unquantified,  additional  measures  in  most  Member  States  and/or  for
the EU as a whole.

For those countries that have identified additional savings by  greenhouse  gas,  most
of  these  savings  are  expected  to  come  from  further  reductions  in  CO2.  In  many
countries, the additional policies and measures are in the early stages of development
and are subject to a larger degree of uncertainty than those discussed in the previous
section (where the policies and measures discussed have already been adopted and/or
implemented).

Table  6.2.1  Comparison  of  the  gap  between  Member  States32  ‘with  measures’
projections and their Kyoto commitments and the identified additional measures

Total
additional
measures

(MtCO2)

Gap
between
with
measures
and burden
sharing
obligations
(MtCO2)

17.6

1.8

12.8

59.1

19.4

14.0

79.3

52.94

-18.535

318.4

13.9

1.9

14.1

59.6

150

14.7

31.7

5034

65

401

Additional measures (MtCO2)33

CO2

CH4

N2O

Fluorinated
gases

11.6

1.9

11.7

48.9

11.1

28.1

17

65

195

2.2

0.1

0.7

-2

2.11

3.6

0.9

5.3

0.9

0.5

7

8

0.8

0.8

7.3

0.5

7.7

17

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

UK

Total EU

31

32

33

34
35 

This  assumption  is  reached  using  a  value  for  savings  equal  to  the  gap  which  Germany’s  additional
measures would fill and a value of zero for the UK given that the latter is projected to surpass its burden
sharing agreement obligation on the basis of existing measures alone.
Only  the  nine  Member  States  shown  in  the  table  have  provided  quantification  of  their  additional
measures.
This includes additional measures, i.e. those which are already implemented but not effective or where
there is a firm implementation plan, and proposed measures without firm implementation plans.
25MtCO2 equivalent is planned to come through the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms
The UK ‘with measures’ projection surpasses its burden sharing obligation

29

                                                
6.3.

Community wide projections

The  previous  analysis  in  this  report  used  scenarios  and  emission  projections  as
prepared  and  submitted  by  Member  States  to  assess  the  projected  progress  of  the
Member  States  and  the  EU  towards  meeting  their  commitments  under  the  Kyoto
Protocol.  An  alternative  approach  is  to  use  Community-wide  projections  which
provide  a  common  basis  for  all  countries  and  can  capture  the  EU-wide  and
international dimensions of energy systems and markets.

This section examines projected progress towards the Kyoto emissions commitment
using  the  latest  Community-wide  greenhouse  gas  emissions  projections  taken  from
Economic  Evaluation  of  Sectoral  Emission  Reduction  Objectives  for  Climate
Change’36.  The  energy  related  CO2  emissions  were  projected  using  the  energy
system model PRIMES37, while other emissions are projected on the basis of activity
and emissions factors.

36

37

“Economic  Evaluation  of  Sectoral  Emission  Reduction  Objectives  for  Climate  Change:  Summary
Report 
for  Policy  Makers”,  K  Blok,  D  de  Jager  and  Chris  Hendriks,  March  2001
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/enveco/climate_change/sectoral_objectives.htm.
Used  for  the  Shared  Analysis  for  EU  energy  scenarios  for  2020  (DG  Transport  and  Energy,  1999)
(http://www.shared-analysis.fhg.de), developed and maintained at the National Technical University of
Athens, Greece.

30

                                                
Table 6.3.1 below shows  the  emissions in  1990/1995,  the  EU-wide  projection  for  2010  and
the percentage change.

Table 6.3.1 Base year and 2010 emissions for the EU-wide projection

Sector

Energy supply

- Energy related CO2

- Non-CO2
Fossil fuel extractionb

Industry
Transportc

Households

Services

Agriculture

Waste

Total

Base year
emissionsa
(MtCO2 eq.)

2010 emissions
(MtCO2 eq.)

Change
1990-2010
(MtCO2 eq.)

% change
1990-2010

1190

1132

58

95

894

753

447

176

417

166

1206

1161

45

61

759

984

445

200

398

137

4138

4190

16

29

-13

-34

-135

231

-2

24

-19

-29

52

1%

3%

-22%

-36%

-15%

31%

0%

14%

-5%

-17%

1%

a  Emissions  are  for  1990  for  all  gases  except  the  fluorinated-gases,  where  the  base  year  is  1995.The  figures
shown are from the study and are slightly different from those reported in this Communication.
b Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel extraction, transport and distribution
c Emissions data for international aviation are included in this total as there is not enough data to separate them.
Such emissions are not included in the national inventory and projection data elsewhere in this report, because
emissions from international transport are not included in the Kyoto Protocol targets.

Source: Sectoral Objectives Study 2001

EU  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are  projected  to  increase  by  1%  relative  to  the
base year. This is mainly due to increased energy supply to satisfy growing demand
in the transport and services sectors. Emissions are decreasing in the other sectors.

Emissions from transport are projected to increase by 31% between the base year and
2010  even  with  the  inclusion  of  the  ACEA38  agreement,  due  to  a  strong  growth  in
both road and air transport. The service sector emissions also increase due to a strong
growth  in  building  stock.  In  industry,  total  emissions  are  projected  to  decrease  by
15%,  due  to  decreases  in  CO2  arising  in  part  from  changes  in  the  fuels  used  by
industry  and  N2O  from  process  emissions  (which  is  already  strongly  reduced  since
1990).There is a slight increase projected in the fluorinated gases.

Emissions are projected to remain stable in the household sector despite some growth
in  housing  stock  because  of  improvements  in  energy  efficiency.  Agriculture  and

38

The  Association  of  European  Motor  Manufacturers  (ACEA)  and  their  Japanese  and  Korean
counterparts, Jama and Kama, have reached an agreement with the EU to reduce the average emissions
of CO2 from new cars to 140 g/km by 2008/9.

31

                                                
waste  are both  projected  to  have  decreasing  emissions  due  to  the  effect  of  existing
policies such as Agenda 2000 in agriculture and the Landfill Directive in waste.

important  differences 

The  EU-wide  projection  is  close  to  the  results  of  aggregating  the  Member  States
projections although a comparison at the individual Member State level would show
from
some 
overestimation  (for  example  Denmark  +27  percent  points)  to  underestimation  (for
example Portugal -16 percent points) of the Sectoral Objectives Study in comparison
with the Member States projections.

(Figure  6.3.1).  The  differences 

range 

Figure 6.3.1 Comparison  of  Member  States  projections  with  disaggregated  Sectoral
Objectives Study projections for total GHG emissions for 2010

EU15

Denmark

Finland

United Kingdom

Greece

Germany

Sweden

Netherlands

Spain

Belgium

Italy

Austria

France

Ireland

Portugal

101

100

100

81

94

85

83

81

130

117

136

129

120

117

120

118

123
122

113
113

107

108

101

102

109

111

127

138

143

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Data sources:

Member States projections

Sectoral Objectives Study

159

160
1990 = 100

180

A complete sectoral comparison with the Member States projections is not possible
because  not  all  Member  States  present  the  projections  at  the  sectoral  level  and  the
sector definitions used vary. A comparison is being made  as part of the EEA work
(by the Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change)39 for those sectors where there is
most  information  from  the  Member  States.  The  aggregate  projections  from  those
Member States where the information is available are for a 17% decrease in energy
industries  (compared  to  a  1%  increase  in  the  Community  wide  projection),  8%  in
agriculture  (compared  to  a  5%  decrease  in  EU-wide  approach),  38%  in  waste
(compared to 17% EU-wide) and a 25% increase in transport (compared to 31% EU-
wide).  The  Member  State  projections  include  the  effect  of  their  own  policies  and
measures  and  in  addition  some  of  the  common  and  co-ordinated  policies  and
measures included in the Sectoral Objectives study.

39

Analysis  and  comparison  of  national  and  EU-wide  projections  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  EEA
Report, Draft July 2001

32

                                                
The  ongoing  analysis  of  methodological  differences  between  Member  States
projections  and  Community-wide  projections  shows  that  more  work  is  needed  to
‘streamline’ forecast methods.

The breakdown by gas for the EU-wide projections is shown in Table 6.3.2. Carbon
dioxide and the fluorinated gases are projected to increase, with methane and nitrous
oxide decreasing.

Table  6.3.2  Base  year,  2010  EU-wide  projections  by  gas  and  percent  change  from  the
aggregate Member States projections

Gas

Base year
emissions
(MtCO2 eq.)40

2010 emissions
(MtCO2 eq.)

% change
1990-2010

CO2 – energy related

3068

CO2 – other

Methane

Nitrous oxide

HFCs, PFCs, SF6

164

462

376

67

3193

183

380

317

116

Total

4138

4190

4%

12%

-18%

-16%

73%

1%

% change
from
Member
States

3%a

-31%

-17%

66%

0%

Source: Sectoral Objectives Study 2001
a For energy related and other CO2 emissions

Comparing  the  breakdown  between  greenhouse  gases  (Figure  6.3.2),  the  Sectoral
Objectives  study  projects  that  CO2  emissions  will  increase  by  4.1%41,  whereas  the
Member States’ project a slightly lower increase of 3%. For CH4, the Member States
project a decrease in emissions of –31% which is larger than that projected from the
Sectoral  Objectives  study.  Projections  of  N2O,  emissions  are  similar  from  the  two
sources.

40

41

These  base  year  emissions  are  taken  from  the  sectoral  objectives  study  and  are  the  Member  States’
submissions to the UNFCCC made in 1997. In each country’s submission to the UNFCCC, there have
been slight changes in the base year estimates due to improvements in data and methodology, hence the
difference compared to the current country’s estimates.
This figure includes the effect of the environment agreement with vehicle manufacturers CO2 emissions
in 2010 are projected to be have been 6.7% higher than 1990 levels without the agreement.

33

                                                
Figure 6.3.2 Comparison of EU15 GHG emissions for  2010 aggregated from Member
States projections and from Sectoral Objectives Study projections

GHG (total)

CO2 (energy related)

N2O

CH4

101

100

104

103

84

85

82

69

0

20

40

Data sources:

Member States projections

60
Sectoral Objectives Study

80

100

120

1990 = 100

Both  sets  of  projections  also  expect  emissions  of  the  fluorinated  gases  to  increase
considerably between 1990 and 2010 (by 73 % in the case of the Sectoral Objectives
study and by 66 %  according to the Member States), although, as noted in Chapter
6.1, the data for these gases from the Member States is incomplete.

6.4.

Additional measures from the Community-wide study

The  Sectoral  Objectives  study  identified  mainly  technical  measures  to  reduce
greenhouse  gas  emissions  with  their  potential  (Mt CO2 eq)  and  costs  (Euro/tonne
CO2  eq  abated).  A  least  cost  methodology  was  then  used  to  calculate  the  mix  of
measures, which could be implemented to achieve the Kyoto target of –8% at least
cost. The study concluded that the Kyoto target could be reached at a marginal cost
of 20 Euro/ tonne CO2 eq abated including the use of an EU wide emission trading
scheme. Compliance costs of such a least cost approach would amount to 3.7 billion
Euro  per  year  for  the  period  2008-2012  (0.06%  of  EU  GDP  in  2010).  This  is  an
upper  bound  estimate  and  does  not  include  economic  benefits  arising  from  the
international use of Flexible Mechanisms (Kyoto Protocol) or the accounting of sinks
according to the resumed COP 6 in Bonn.

The  implementation  of  these  technical  measures  will  in  part  be  stimulated  by  the
policies  and  measures  identified  by  the  ECCP  (Section  6.6).  For  the  additional
measures  identified  by  the  ECCP  as  being  in  an  advanced  state  of  preparation,  the
technical potential for reductions is similar to the potential identified in the Sectoral
Objectives study for those sectors. The two approaches are thus consistent.

34

6.5.

Key assumptions in models

The differences between Member State and the EU-wide projections are in part due
to different assumptions regarding the policies and measures in force and in part to
different  parameter  assumptions  and  modelling  methodologies.  Table  6.5.1  shows
key  parameters  for  the  Member  States  projections  and  Table  6.5.2  compares  GDP
and  population  growths  assumed  by  the  Member  States  and  in  the  EU-wide
projection.  GDP  growth  assumptions  are  fairly  consistent,  with  higher  growth
expected in some countries but around 2% per annum for most. Population growth is
also  similar  but  the  assumptions  on  international  oil  prices  are  markedly  different.
This in  part  probably  relates to when  the projections  were  made,  as  there  has  been
considerable volatility in the oil price recently.

Table 6.5.1 Key parameters for some Member States projections

GDP growth/yr

2000-2005 2005-2010

International oil
price

Population

growth 2000-
2010

Growth per
year

Traffic growth 2000-
2010

Passenger

Freight

2.5%

2.5%

2.4%

2%

2.3%

2%

2%

3.3%

3.6%

2.2%

2%

3%

2.0%

2.4%

1.5%

1.8%

2%

3.3%

3.2%

2%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK
aFrom 1995 – 2010
bFrom 1990 – 2010
cFrom 1997 to 2010

49%

-26%

27%

9%

14%

15%

22%

53%a

-11%c

0%

12%

10%

50%b

12%

13%

8%

16%

70% b

28%

22%

25%

26%

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

-0.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Differences  are  due  to  a  number  of  factors  including  scenarios  chosen  for  global
development  of the  economy.  The  effects  of  GDP  on  projections  are  dependent  on
the  Member  State  and  could  be  important  in  explaining  differences  in  projections,
but are unlikely to be the only reason.

35

Table 6.5.2 Comparison of key parameter  assumptions  in the Member  States  and  EU-
wide projections

EU-wide GDP
growth/yr

MS GDP growth/yr

EU-wide
Population

MS
Population

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

2000-2005 2005-2010 2000-2005 2005-2010 growth per

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

2.4%

2.3%

2.5%

2.2%

2.6%

3.8%

2.9%

2.2%

2.6%

2.1%

2.2%

2.1%

2.3%

2.2%

2.3%

2.1%

2.5%

3.6%

2.8%

2.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.4%

2.0%

2.3%

2.0%

2.0%

3.3%

3.6%

2.2%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

2.4%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

1.8%

2.0%

3.3%

3.2%

0.0%

0.0%

2.3%

year

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

0.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

Growth per
year

-

-

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

-0.1%

0.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

A more detailed comparison of the projections is planned for 2002 in the Monitoring
Mechanism using information on the Member States projections in the  3rd National
Communications.

6.6.

EU level policies and measures

The  following  sections  describe  the  policy  framework  and  the  strategy  of  the
European Union for sustainable development and its implications for climate change.
They also give an overview of concrete policies and measures to be initiated in the
run-up to the first commitment period 2008-2012. No detailed descriptions are given
here  since  they  can  be  found  in  the  European  Community’s  3rd  National
Communication to the UNFCCC42.

6.6.1.

From Cardiff and Gothenburg to Barcelona

In  1998,  the  Cardiff  European  Council  started  a  new  initiative  to  integrate
environment  and  sustainable  development  more  effectively  into  sectoral  policies.
The  principal  idea  was  to  shift  responsibilities  and  control  from  environmental
authorities  to  the  different  sectoral  policies  that  prepare  and  implement  measures.
Targets,  timetables  and  monitoring  procedures  with  indicators  should  ensure  better
prioritisation, transparency and provide additional political momentum.

42

3rd  National  Communications  will  be  submitted  by  parties  (incl.  EC)  in  November  2001  to  the
UNFCCC secretariat and be posted on the website: http://www.unfccc.de/index.html.

36

                                                
This  integration  initiative  (“the  Cardiff  process”)  has  progressed  substantially.  The
Council  has  so  far  adopted  environmental  integration  strategies  in  the  areas  of
energy, transport and agriculture. Council reports have been adopted in the areas of
industry,  internal  market,  development,  and  economic/finance.  In  addition  Council
strategies on fisheries and General Affairs Council are currently being developed.

The Gothenburg Council in June 2001 stressed the need for the continuation of the
integration  process.  In  addition,  the  Council  approved  the  EU’s  Sustainable
Development  Strategy  (SDS),  thereby  mutually  reinforcing  economic,  social  and
environmental  policies.  At  the  Barcelona  Council  in  spring  2002  progress  in
achieving the SDS will form the basis for assessing sustainable development. It will
also  form  part  of  the  EU  preparations  for  the  2002  World  Summit  on  Sustainable
Development. Heads of State and Governments confirmed at the Gothenburg summit
that  combating  Climate  Change  is  to  be  a  priority  of  the  EU’s  Sustainable
Development  Strategy  and  confirmed 
its
commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.

the  EU’s  determination 

to  meet 

6.6.2.

Strategy 
Programme

for  Sustainable  Development43  and 

the  6th  Environmental  Action

The  EU’s  strategy  for  sustainable  development  is  based  on  the  Commission's
Communication  “A  Sustainable  Europe  for  a  Better  World:  A  European  Union
strategy  for  Sustainable  Development”  (SDS)  It  focuses  on  a  limited  number  of
problems  which  pose  severe  or  irreversible  threats  to  the  future  well-being  of
European society. Climate Change is one of the areas for urgent action.

The 6th Environmental Action Programme44 (6th EAP) sets long-term environmental
objectives and priorities as an integral part of the European Community’s strategy for
sustainable development. Tackling climate change is highlighted as one of four key
objectives.  Both,  the  6th  EAP  and  the  SDS  stress  the  importance  of  a  speedy
ratification  process  and  entry  into  force  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol  by  2002  (Rio+10).
They also acknowledge the need for action beyond Kyoto, proposing a mid-term cut
of 20-40% of greenhouse gases from 1990 levels by 2020.

Areas for policy action at EU and Member State level include:

(cid:1)  To set more ambitious environmental targets for energy taxation aiming at the full

internalisation of external costs;

(cid:1)  Encouraging the use of renewable energy sources, including the use of incentives,
with a view to meeting the indicative target of 12% of total energy use by 2010.

(cid:1)  Introducing  incentives  to  increase  Combined  Heat  and  Power  and  implement
measures aiming at doubling the overall share of Combined Heat and Power in the
Community as a whole to 18% of the total gross electricity generation.

(cid:1)  Prevent and reduce methane emissions from energy production and distribution.

43

44

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/eussd/index.htm.
The Sixth Environmental Action Programme of the European Community – “Environment 2010: Our
future, our choice” Communication COM (2001) 31 final, 2001.

37

                                                
(cid:1)  Identifying  and undertaking specific  actions to  reduce  greenhouse  gas  emissions
from  aviation if  no  such  action  is  agreed  within  the  International  Civil  Aviation
Organisation by 2002.

(cid:1)  Encouraging a switch to  more  efficient  and  cleaner  forms  of  transport  including

better organisation and logistics.

(cid:1)  Promoting  the  development  and  use  of  alternative  fuels  with  the  aim  of
substantially  and  continually  increasing  their  share  and  of  low  fuel  consuming
vehicles.

(cid:1)  Promote measures to reflect the full environmental costs in the price of transport.

(cid:1)  Encouraging  the  development  of  more  environmentally  sound  and  technically
feasible  alternatives  aiming  at  reducing  emissions,  phasing  out  the  production
where appropriate and feasible and reducing the use of industrial fluorinated gases
HFCs 
(sulphur
hexafluoride).

(Perfluorocarbons)  and  SF6 

(hydrofluorocarbons),  PFCs 

(cid:1)  Establishment  of  a  Community  framework  for  the  development  of  an  effective

CO2 emissions trading scheme;

(cid:1)  Improving the monitoring of greenhouse gases and of progress towards delivering
Member States commitments made under the Internal Burden Sharing Agreement.

(cid:1)  Undertaking  as  soon  as  possible  an  inventory  and  review  of  subsidies  that
counteract  an  efficient  and  sustainable  use  of  energy  with  a  view  to  gradually
phasing them out.

6.6.3.

European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)

The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) was established to help identify
the  most  environmentally  and  cost  effective  measures  to  meet  the  EU  target.  The
ECCP  has  been  set-up  as  a  multi-stakeholder  consultative  process  that  focussed  on
energy,  transport,  industry,  research  and  agriculture  and  on  the  issue  of  emissions
trading within the EU. A major part of the ECCP has now been finalised (European
Climate Change Programme Report, June 2001)45. The programme dovetails with the
6th EAP and the EU Strategy for Sustainable Development.

The ECCP investigated more than 40 measures in total using selection criteria such
as  cost  effectiveness  and  the  timing  for  their  implementation.  Eight  measures  were
identified as being at an advanced stage of preparation:

(cid:1)  Framework  Directive  for  a  Community  Greenhouse  Gases  Emissions  Trading

Scheme

(cid:1)  Bio-fuel Directive

(cid:1)  Directive for Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources, RES-E

45

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/eccp.htm.

38

                                                
(cid:1)  Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings

(cid:1)  Directive on Energy Efficient Public Procurement

(cid:1)  Amended Save Directive 93/76/EEC

(cid:1)  Campaign for take off and Public Awareness Campaign for Energy Efficiency

(cid:1)  Framework Directive on Fluorinated Gases.

These  measures  together  have  an  estimated  cost-effective  emission  reduction
potential of about 240 MtCO2 eq, which may be realised by 2010. The realisation of
the ECCP potential depends on a number of factors including political agreement on
the  measure,  the  timeframe  within  which  the  measures  are  implemented,  public
acceptance  and  overlaps  between  these  measures  and  Member  State  policies.  For
some of the other measures, which are at an earlier stage of development, most of the
technical  potential  is  likely  to  be  realised  over  slightly  longer  time-scales.  If  the
potential for the eight measures is realised before 2010, it would contribute about 5%
of  the  8%  Kyoto  target,  thereby  supporting  Member  State  domestic  policies  and
measures.

This  list  has  to  be  situated  against  the  background  of  efforts  the  Commission  is
currently  undertaking  to  integrate  the  environment  into  other  policy  areas.  Recent
initiatives include: a Directive on further liberalisation of the electricity  and natural
gas  markets  in  the  EU46,  an  Action  Plan  for  Improved  Energy  Efficiency  in  the
Community47, a Green Paper on the Security of Energy Supply48, the revision of the
guidelines  on  state  aid  for  environmental  protection49  and  a  White  Paper  on  a
Common  Transport  Policy50.  The  Commission’s  Green  Paper  on  the  security  of
energy  supply  gives  the  fight  against  global  warming  a  high  priority.  It  identifies
packages of measures to increase the  energy  efficiency  on  supply and demand side
and  to  develop  new  and  renewable  energies.  The  Commission’s  White  Paper  on  a
common transport policy sets out the need for integration of transport in sustainable
development.  It  lists  packages  of  measures  aimed  at  shifting  the  balance  between
modes of transport, in particular from road and aviation to the more environmentally
friendly modes of rail and waterway transport. This should allow curbing the growth
of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  from  the  most  important  contributors  in  the  transport
sector.  An  older  but  still  highly  relevant  proposal  on  Energy  Product  Taxation  has
been  revived  in  Council,  and  the  Commission  remains  firmly  committed  to  the
approach outlined in it.

The Commission initiative for establishing the European Research Area and the new
Framework  Programme  have  given  prominent  place  to  research  and  technology
development  relevant  to  climate  change.  In  addition,  the  Global  Monitoring  for
Environment  and  Security  (GMES)  initiative  can  help  among  others  in  the  proper
implementation of the climate policies in Europe.

46

47

48

49

50

Commission Communication Completing the Internal Energy Market.
Action plan for improving energy efficiency in the European Community, COM(2000)247 final.
Green Paper Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply, COM(2000)769 final.
Community  guidelines on state aid  for  environmental  protection,  2001/C37/03,  OJ  C  37,  03/02/2001,
p .3.
European Transport Policy for 2010 (COM (2001)370).

39

                                                
6.6.4.

The way forward

The  resumed  6th  session  of  the  Conference  of  the  Parties  to  the  United  Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-6) in July 2001 delivered a major
success  in  reaching  a  political  agreement  on  the  outstanding  issues  concerning  the
implementation  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol.  It  is  envisaged  that  the  7th  Conference  in
Marrakech  in  November  2001  will  finalise  the  translation  of  this  successful
agreement into legal text.

The  EU’s  leadership  at  the  resumed  COP-6  was  a  determining  factor  in  the
successful  outcome.  The  success  affirmed  the  multilateral  approach  to  global
environmental threats. It is of major importance to maintain this momentum and to
demonstrate  determination  along  the  lines  set  out  by  the  Heads  of  State  and
Government in Gothenburg.

The  Commission  has  recently  adopted  a  package  of  measures  that  is  destined  to
maintain this momentum and leadership. They are:

(1) 

(2) 

(3) 

A  proposal  for  a  Council  Decision  on  the  ratification,  on  behalf  of  the
European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol; COM (2001)579.

A  proposal  for  a  Directive  on  greenhouse  gas  emissions  trading  within  the
EU; COM(2001)581.

A Communication that outlines the concrete set of implementation measures
to be addressed in the coming 24 months that constitute the basis for fulfilling
the Community’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, COM(2001)580.

An  important  element  of  this  set  of  implementation  measures  is  a  Proposal  for  a
Review  of  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  under  Council  Decision  93/389/EEC  as
amended  by  Decision  99/296/EC.  This  will  have  to  take  account  of  progress  made
with the assessment of policies and measures under the current system and some new
elements  that  are  envisaged  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol  for  which  the  rules  and
procedures are currently being developed. Issues that will have to be addressed under
a  future  revision  relate  to  additional  monitoring  and  reporting  requirements,  in
particular those  for  an  EU  Emissions  Trading  Scheme.  Discussions  on  these  issues
have started in the Monitoring Mechanism Committee.

40

Actual progress

Projected progress

ECCP

Emissions

EU burden sharing

Greenhouse gases

Glossary, Abbreviations and Units

Actual progress is based on  emission inventories
of  Member  States  and  the  Community  and
includes the comparison of  base  year inventories
with  the  latest  available  inventories  to  establish
actual trends of emissions and a comparison with
emission  objectives  at  Member  State  and
Community level

Projected  progress  is  assessed  by  the  collection
and evaluation of adopted and further (planned, or
currently  in  discussion)  policies  and  measures  at
both  national  and  Community 
level.  This
evaluation  is  based  on  emission  projections  of
Member States and the Community

European  Climate  Change  Programme, 
a
programme whose goal is to identify and develop
all  the  necessary  elements  of  an  EU  strategy  to
implement the Kyoto Protocol

Means  the  release  of  greenhouse  gases  and/or
their  precursors  into  the  atmosphere  over  a
specified area and period of time

The  Kyoto  Protocol 
the  UNFCCC  sets
to 
different binding emission targets for a number of
Parties including the European Community (EC).
The  EC  agreed  to  reduce  its  greenhouse  gas
emissions  by  8 %  by  2008-2012,  from  1990
levels.  This  overall 
target  has  since  been
distributed  on a  differentiated  basis  to  individual
Member  States  under  an  ‘EU  burden  sharing’
mechanism  agreed  upon  by  the  Council  of
Ministers in June 1998

those  gaseous  constituents  of 

Means 
the
atmosphere, both  natural and  anthropogenic,  that
absorb and re-emit infrared radiation

Industrial fluorinated-gases

HFCs, PFCs, SF6

IPCC Tier 1 method

The  IPCC  Tier  1  method  is  a  basic  approach  to
i.e.  source
identify  key  source  categories, 
categories  that  have  a  significant  influence  on  a
country's total greenhouse gas inventory in terms
of  the  absolute  level  of  emissions,  the  trend  in
emissions, or both. (see Chapter 7 of IPCC (2000)
Good  Practice  Guidance 
and  Uncertainty
Management 
in  National  Greenhouse  Gas
Inventories.  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate
Change)

Kyoto Protocol

see: EU burden sharing

41

Monitoring mechanism

Sink

Source

CCPMs

CH4

CHP

CO2

COP

CRF

DTI

EEA

GDP

GHG

HFCs

IPCC

LUCF

N2 O

PFCs

P&Ms

The  monitoring  mechanism  is  an  instrument  to
assess  accurately  and  regularly  the  extent  of
progress  being  made  towards  the  Community’s
commitments 
the  UN  Framework
Convention  on  Climate  Change  (UNFCCC)  and
the Kyoto Protocol

under 

Means any process, activity or mechanism which
removes  a  greenhouse  gas,  an  aerosol  or  a
precursor  of  a  greenhouse  gas 
the
atmosphere

from 

Means  any  process  or  activity  which  releases  a
greenhouse  gas,  an  aerosol  or  a  precursor  of  a
greenhouse gas into the atmosphere

Common 
Measures at Community level

and  Co-ordinated  Policies 

and

Methane

Combined Heat and Power

Carbon dioxide

Conference of the Parties

Common Reporting Format

Distance to target path in percent; target path is a
straight line from base year emission level (1990)
to target levels in 2010; the DTI figures in percent
show  the  deviations  between  what  should  have
been  achieved  and  what  has  been,  under  the
assumption  that  reductions  in  percent  of  1990
levels would take place linear.

European Environment Agency

Gross Domestic Production

Greenhouse gas

Hydrofluorocarbons

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Land Use Change and Forestry

Nitrous oxide

Perfluorocarbons

Policies and Measures

42

SF6

UNFCCC

Sulphur hexafluoride

United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on
Climate Change

t

1 ton (metric) = 1 megagram (Mg)

= 106 g

Mg

1 megagram

= 106 g = 1 ton (t)

Mt

1 megaton (Mt) = 1012 g= 1 teragram

43