WRITTEN QUESTION E-0898/01 by Renato Brunetta (PPE-DE), Francesco Fiori (PPE-DE), Vitaliano Gemelli (PPE-DE), Raffaele Lombardo (PPE-DE), Cristiana Muscardini (UEN), Francesco Speroni (TDI) and Antonio Tajani (PPE-DE) to the Commission. Divergences between estimates and final figures in Italian macroeconomic data: impact on the Commission's assessments.
Date: 2001-03-28
Institutions: European Parliament, Provisional data
Subjects: Italy, disclosure of information, gross domestic product, national accounts

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Answer given by Mr Barnier on behalf of the Commission

(8 May 2001)

The Commission is sending the Honourable Member and Parliament(cid:146)s Secretariat a copy of the results of
the study used as the basis for the section on the contribution of the common agricultural policy to
cohesion in the Second Report on Economic and Social Cohesion (1).

(1) COM(2001) 24 final.

(2001/C 261 E/244)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-0898/01

by Renato Brunetta (PPE-DE), Francesco Fiori (PPE-DE),
Vitaliano Gemelli (PPE-DE), Raffaele Lombardo (PPE-DE), Cristiana Muscardini (UEN),
Francesco Speroni (TDI) and Antonio Tajani (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(28 March 2001)

Subject: Divergences between estimates and final figures in Italian macroeconomic data: impact on the

Commission(cid:146)s assessments

On 1 March 2001 ISTAT (the Italian National Statistical Institute) published the annual final figures for the
Italian national accounts, with its estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) for 2000 and corrections of
the estimates for 1997-1999 with respect to the estimates given last year.

These data reveal considerable variations concerning household consumption (+ 1,5 %), imports (+ 1,5 %),
investments (+ 1,3 %) and GDP (+ 0,7 %).

It is difficult to reconcile the data issued for 2000 with the statistical information that had been made
available to date. The average revision to the GDP growth rate for the three-year period 1997-1999 is over
14 %, the household consumption growth rate has been revised by over 30 % and the growth rate in
investments by over 70 %.

ISTAT has also issued a list of the new statistical sources on which it has based the revision of its
estimates. There is a significant discrepancy between the signals which emerge from data on economic
trends (including the national quarterly economic accounts) and the annual final data.

The conflict between the information on economic trends and the annual data prompts the fear that the
short-term economic indicators on which ISTAT bases its own quarterly accounts are becoming more and
more biased and less reliable.

Can the Commission say:

(cid:129) whether the new statistical sources used by ISTAT are known to the Community institutions?

(cid:129) whether the revisions made by ISTAT have any effect on the assessments of the Italian economy,

which under the EC Treaty it is bound to evaluate?

(cid:129) finally, what action it intends to take in this regard?

Answer given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(5 June 2001)

The Italian national statistical institute (ISTAT) has indeed published the annual figures for Italy(cid:146)s gross
domestic product for 2000, plus the corrections for 1997-1999, which turned out to be fairly substantial.

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The scale of these corrections may be due to a number of factors, such as the difficult initial phase of
implementing the new system of national accounts (cid:129) the European System of National and Regional
Accounts in the Community (ESA 95) (cid:129) which includes new statistical sources and major changes to the
concepts used in the previous system. The other Member States are in the same situation and it will take a
while until the systems for calculation have settled down properly.

In the case of other Member States, major corrections of their growth rates (estimates for 2000 against
1999 and for 1998) related to the following aggregates:

GDP:
(cid:129) Belgium: (cid:141) 0,3
(cid:129) Spain: + 0,4
(cid:129) Netherlands:+ 0,4
(cid:129) United Kingdom: + 0,5
(cid:129) Italy: + 0,2

Household consumption:
(cid:129) Belgium: (cid:141) 0,5
(cid:129) Spain: + 0,4
(cid:129) United Kingdom: + 0,8
(cid:129) Italy: + 0,5

Investments:
(cid:129) Belgium: + 0,9
(cid:129) Germany: + 1,6
(cid:129) Spain: + 0,5
(cid:129) Netherlands: (cid:141) 1,1
(cid:129) Italy: + 0,7

Another factor in the size of the corrections is the increasing pressure on Member States (cid:129) see the
Council(cid:146)s Action Plan of 29 September 2000 on the statistics required for Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU) (cid:129) to provide quarterly GDP statistics at increasingly short notice. As a result, in the space of one
year the period for reporting results for Italy has gone from 80 days to 70 days after the end of the
quarter, with rapid estimates expected within 45 days.

One thing is certain: under ESA 95 the national accounts of the Member States are now established
according to harmonised concepts and it is the task of the Statistical Office of the European Communities
(Eurostat) to ensure that these concepts are correctly applied.

Turning to the honourable Members(cid:146) specific questions, the following information can be provided:

(cid:129) The Commission (Eurostat) is familiar to some extent with the new sources of statistics for drawing up
national accounts in Italy, but the detailed description has still to be completed by ISTAT before it is
officially communicated to Eurostat. This is because, under the new ESA, Member States are required
to provide detailed descriptions of the sources and methods used to calculate gross domestic product
(GDP), as was the case under the previous system in the early 1990s. The Member States are currently
working on this and their reports are expected shortly.

(cid:129) In its assessment of the Member States(cid:146) economies, the Commission naturally relies on the most recent
available figures that they transmit to Eurostat. The correction of national accounts for the period
1997-1999 carried out on 1 March 2001 led to a re-evaluation of the dynamics and make-up of the
growth over that period. However, the correction of growth in GDP in real terms, which was the main
item of data in the whole evaluation exercise, turned out to be not exceptionally high compared both
to the previous corrections and to those carried out for the other Member States (see the data in the
first paragraph). Moreover, the final estimate for GDP growth in real terms for 2000 tallies with the
estimate the Commission made in autumn 2000. Lastly, this correction does not affect the Commis-
sion(cid:146)s evaluation of the current economic situation.

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(cid:129) Eurostat (cid:129) which is responsible for the collecting, checking and validating the Member States(cid:146) data in
the various statistical fields (cid:129) will continue to perform this task, especially in connection with the
inventories of sources and methods which it will be receiving shortly. These inventories make it
possible to conduct a more sophisticated evaluation of the conformity of Italian practices with
Community standards.

(2001/C 261 E/245)

WRITTEN QUESTION P-0899/01

by Pat Gallagher (UEN) to the Commission

(19 March 2001)

Subject: Long-line fishing

A recent report by BirdWatch Ireland stated that between 50 000 and 100 000 northern fulmars were
killed in the North-east Atlantic every year as a result of long-line fishing. Can the Commission state
whether it has statistical evidence which would substantiate this claim and whether it believes that there
are any measures and technical solutions for vessels which would prevent these deaths? Does it envisage
bringing forward any proposals in this area?

Answer given by Mr Fischler on behalf of the Commission

(26 April 2001)

The Commission as such has no self-generated statistical evidence on this topic. The Commission is aware
of reports by Birdlife International of surveys carried out on Norwegian longliners off north-west Norway
and extrapolated to include probable effects of Faroese and Icelandic longliners giving rise to estimates of
the order cited. These reports appear to have been reiterated by Bird Watch Ireland.

Preliminary information received by the Commission from replies to a questionnaire issued last August
2000 indicate that catches of sea birds, although they occur, do not constitute a major threat
in
Community waters. The main problems seem to be caused by non-Community vessels fishing either in
international waters or in their own waters. The Community has no direct legal power to control the
activities of non-Community vessels in these areas.

The Commission has participated in meetings leading to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)
International Plan of Action for reducing incidental catches of seabirds in longline fisheries and has drafted
a Community action plan on the basis of information supplied by Member States in response to the
questionnaire previously mentioned. This draft was submitted to the appropriate body of FAO in February
2001.

In Antarctic waters, to protect albatrosses and other birds, the Community has already adopted a number
of mitigation measures (1) (2), and some or all of these might be considered for other areas as required.

The measures are:

(cid:129) Using bird-scaring lines with plastic streamers attached;

(cid:129) Weighting lines so that they sink faster and hence cause less risk;

(cid:129) Prohibiting discharge of offal at sea which attracts the birds;

(cid:129) Setting lines at night when the birds are less likely to be foraging;

(cid:129) Using only thawed bait which sinks faster.

Finally, it might be pointed out that, although catches of seabirds are regrettable and probably avoidable,
the cited magnitude of catches of northern fulmars are not such that the sustainability of the fulmar
populations, currently estimated at 10-12 million individuals, is threatened.

(1) Council Regulation (EC) No 66/1998 of 18 December 1998, OJ L 6, 10.1.1998.
(2) Council Regulation (EC) No 2479/1998 of 12 November 1998, OJ L 309, 19.11.1998.