WRITTEN QUESTION E-0799/01 by Ioannis Marínos (PPE-DE) to the Commission. Accurate earthquake forecast.
Date: 2001-03-19
Institutions: European Parliament, Provisional data
Subjects: EU financing, EU research policy, project evaluation, research project, seismic monitoring, seismology

4.12.2001

EN

Official Journal of the European Communities

C 340 E/95

(2001/C 340 E/110)

WRITTEN QUESTION P-0796/01

by Geoffrey Van Orden (PPE-DE) to the Council

(14 March 2001)

Subject: The workings of the Rapid Reaction Force

Last weekend at Camp David Tony Blair and President Bush gave a joint press conference having
previously discussed, amongst other things, the implications of the so-called European Rapid Reaction
Force. President Bush said, with the Prime Minister standing next to him, that the latter had (cid:145)assured me
that there would be a joint command, that the planning (of the Rapid Reaction Force) would take place
within NATO, and that should all NATO not wish to go on a mission, that would then (my italics) serve as
a catalyst for the defence forces moving on their own.(cid:146)

On the previous Thursday, Tony Blair told the Canadian Parliament that (cid:145)the initiative on European
defence is not a standing army (cid:133) there will be no separate EU planning structures.(cid:146)

Does the Council believe that these interpretations of the workings of the Rapid Reaction Force are
consistent with the Presidency Report on the European Security and Defence Policy as agreed by the
Member States at Nice.

President Bush also said:
a vision would encourage our NATO allies and friends to bolster their defence budgets, perhaps.(cid:146)

(cid:145)I was very hopeful when we discussed the Prime Minister(cid:146)s vision that such

Does the Council believe that that there is any evidence of this?

Reply

(13 July 2001)

The issue of planning, which is what the Hon. Member seems particularly interested in, is dealt with in
accordance with the European Council(cid:146)s decisions at Nice; strategic planning (i.e. the planning activities
that start as soon as a crisis emerges and ends with European Union decision-making on the military
strategic option) is done by the European Union(cid:146)s Military Staff.

In developing and prioritising military strategic options, the Military Staff may draw as appropriate on
planning support from external sources, in particular NATO. For operations requiring recourse to NATO
assets and capabilities, operational planning will be done in NATO. For an EU operation without recourse
to NATO assets and capabilities, operational planning will be carried out by a European national or
multinational headquarter.

Member States also committed themselves further to improve their capabilities. It is still early days, but
capabilities nationally and multinationally are being improved in ways which would not be taking place in
the absence of the ESDP. The Progress Catalogue, a first version of which should be ready at the end of the
Swedish Presidency, will identify follow on initiatives where progress is needed. A main element will be the
definition of the Review Mechanism outlined at Nice, which will allow the monitoring of quantitative and
qualitative progress towards achieving the Headline Goal.

(2001/C 340 E/111)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-0799/01

by Ioannis Mar(cid:237)nos (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(19 March 2001)

Subject: Accurate earthquake forecast

On 24 June 1999 the Commission announced on the Internet that Prenlab, which was developed by the
University of Edinburgh and receives EU funding, had accurately predicted an earthquake in Iceland
measuring five on the Richter Scale. On 27 and 29 October 1998 Prenlab notified the Icelandic authorities

C 340 E/96

Official Journal of the European Communities

EN

4.12.2001

that an earthquake would strike Iceland and then on 10 November it predicted the exact size of the
earthquake. Three days later the earthquake struck only two kilometres from the point where the station
(cid:145)tracking(cid:146) the earthquake was situated.

Will the Commission say whether the EU is making full use of the expertise of Prenlab so that human lives
and property can be saved in future? Has Prenlab made any further forecasts since then? Has EU financial
support continued since 1998, and what has been the total amount of this aid? Have the authorities of any
Member State of the Union asked to use Prenlab(cid:146)s expertise and research findings? Finally, have any other
research centres worldwide made any accurate forecasts of earthquakes since 1998?

Answer given by Mr Busquin on behalf of the Commission

(21 June 2001)

Prenlab (Earthquake-prediction Research in a Natural Laboratory) was a Seismic Hazard Research Project
funded under the Fourth framework programme (1994-1998) with a Community contribution of
€ 790 000. The European Commission continued funding the Research through a further project
(Prenlab-2) with a Community contribution of € 1 162 000, and more recently SM-Site (Developing Stress
Monitoring Sites and Infrastructure for Forecasting Earthquakes), an infrastructure project under the Fifth
framework programme (1998-2002), with a Community contribution of € 1 300 000. The scientific teams
scientists during the
involved in Prenlab presented their
Community-Japan workshops on Seismic Risk held in Reykjavik, Iceland, in June 1999 and Kyoto, Japan,
in March 2000.

results to European and Japanese peer

Since the earthquake of November 1998, Prenlab has made no further official forecast. The Community
continues to fund research and development carried out by this team through the SM-Site infrastructure
project, with a view to obtaining future positive results. The final report of this project, presenting the final
scientific results obtained, was only made available to the Commission during beginning of 2001 and, until
now, no specific request has been made by any Member State to use Prenlab(cid:146)s expertise and research
findings. One of the most important results are the new methods for monitoring crustal processes leading
to large earthquakes. Despite these promising results the validity and applicability of such forecast is being
still debated in the scientific community.

Since 1998, no other research centers have made accurate short-term forecasts, but many teams worldwide
prepare medium to long term forecast of seismic hazard mainly for seismic design purposes.

Prenlab will also be presented and reviewed at two important upcoming events:

(cid:129) The DMSG meeting (Disaster Management Support Group of the committee for earth observation

satellites) to be held in Brussels from 25-27 June 2001.

(cid:129) The scientific review workshop of Community coordinators scheduled from 5-7 September 2001.

(2001/C 340 E/112)

WRITTEN QUESTION E-0802/01

by Peter Liese (PPE-DE) to the Commission

(19 March 2001)

Subject: Presentation of falsified Agrim import licences in connection with the release into free circulation

of bananas from Central and South America

According to a request for official assistance made on 29 June 2000 to the competent authorities of the
Member States, the Commission is investigating a number of companies regarding the falsification of
import licences in connection with the importation of bananas from third countries into the Community.
The amount concerned is estimated by the Commission to be at least 200 000 tonnes. The Commission