Report under Council Decision 1999/296/EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions
Date: 2000-11-22
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU environmental policy, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, greenhouse gas, stratospheric pollution

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 22.11.2000
COM(2000)749 final

REPORT

under Council Decision 1999/296/EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community
greenhouse gas emissions

(presented by the Commission)

REPORT

under Council Decision 1999/296/EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community
greenhouse gas emissions

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.
2.
2.1.

2.2.
2.3.
3.
3.1.
3.2.
4.

Executive Summary.................................................................................................. 4
Conclusions.............................................................................................................. 6
Compliance on reporting .......................................................................................... 6

Actual progress of the EU......................................................................................... 7
Projected progress of the EU .................................................................................... 7
EC Monitoring Mechanism and purpose of the report............................................... 9
The EC Monitoring Mechanism................................................................................ 9
Purpose of this report ............................................................................................. 10
Member States compliance with reporting requirements ......................................... 12

4.2.
Compliance with reporting requirements on actual progress ................................... 12
4.1.1. Greenhouse gas emissions inventories .................................................................... 12
4.1.2. Data gaps on CO2, CH4 and N2O .......................................................................... 12
4.1.3. Data gaps on fluorinated gases................................................................................ 12
4.1.4. Data gaps on land use change and forestry (LUCF) ................................................ 12
Compliance with reporting requirements on projected progress .............................. 13
4.2.

Evaluation of actual progress.................................................................................. 17
5.
Introduction............................................................................................................ 17
5.1.
Progress in the European Union.............................................................................. 17
5.2.
Progress at European Union level ........................................................................... 17
5.2.1.
5.2.2.
Progress at Member State level............................................................................... 18
5.2.3. CO2 Emissions....................................................................................................... 21

5.2.4. CH4 Emissions....................................................................................................... 23
5.2.5. N2O Emissions....................................................................................................... 24
Fluorinated Gases ................................................................................................... 24
5.2.6.
Evaluation of projected progress............................................................................. 25
6.
Comparison of Member states projections with the EU burden sharing agreement .. 25
6.1.
Summary of additional policies and measures for the member states ...................... 28
6.2.
Community wide projections .................................................................................. 30
6.3.
Summary of EU level policies and measures .......................................................... 31
6.4.
Glossary, Abbreviations and Units.......................................................................... 34
7.

3

1.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is the first progress report under Council Decision 99/296/EC amending
Decision 93/389/EEC for a monitoring mechanism of Community CO2 and other
greenhouse gas emissions. The report presents the results of the evaluation process
under the decision and assesses the actual and projected progress of Member States
and the Community towards fulfilling their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. The Convention was aimed at the stabilisation
of greenhouse gases (at 1990 level) while the Kyoto Protocol set a target of –8 %
(from the 1990 level) for the EU.

The evaluation is based largely on documents provided by Member States. These
include documents produced specifically for submission under the Monitoring
Mechanism and other documents, such as national climate change strategies and
National Communications to the UNFCCC. In the case of projected progress, the
evaluation has also taken into account the results of Community-wide projections of
greenhouse gas emissions.

The report covers data on actual GHG emissions up to and including 1998 as well as
emissions projections up to 2010,
the mid-point of the Kyoto Protocol’s first
commitment period (2008-2012).

The Commission has seen good progress in Member States’ reporting on emission
inventories and some progress with regard to national policies/measures and
projections. However a lot remains to be done with regard to the completeness,
accuracy and comparison of the data especially those on projected progress. Further
work on these issues is currently ongoing under the Monitoring Committee and its
two subgroups. Improvements are therefore to be expected for next year.

Main findings:

• The EU’s GHG emissions fell by 2.5% between 1990 and 1998. This suggests
that the EU as a whole is on track to meet its commitment under the UNFCCC to
stabilise emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. However, this positive evolution is due
mainly to large one-off emission reductions in Germany and the UK.

• The majority of Member States are far away from their target paths towards
Kyoto. Moreover, all Member States but one experienced emission considerable
increases from the transport sector, the fastest-growing GHG emission source.

• Current projections suggest that existing policies and measures (‘business as
usual’) would at best reduce overall EU GHG emissions in 2010 by 57 Mt CO2
equivalent, taking emissions to 1.4% below the 1990 level, and at worst merely
stabilise them at 1990’s level. In addition, the projected savings are only obtained
with uneven contributions from Member States, with most of them falling
short of showing satisfactory emission reduction trends.

4

• This leaves a considerable way to go to meet the EU’s obligation under the
Kyoto Protocol to reduce GHG emissions to 8% below the 1990 level by 2008-
2012 and the individual commitments by Member States under the burden sharing
agreement.

• Additional policies and measures identified by Member States are projected to
yield further reductions close to 7% (below 1990 levels). One third of these
additional savings, however, are due to projected reductions by Germany and the
UK alone. This development should not be taken for granted by the other 13
Member States, as each of them is responsible for meeting its own target.

• All projections must be treated with caution due to considerable uncertainty
related to a lack of quantified data on additional measures (half of the Member
States did not submit any data), and a lack of comparability of methodologies
used including their underlying assumptions. In addition, there are uncertainties
over the implementation of these policies and measures.

• In view of the difficulties that

the Member States face in meeting their
commitments under the burden sharing agreement common and co-ordinated
policies and measures at EU level will become an increasingly important
element to supplement and reinforce national climate strategies. Such policies
and measures have already been proposed, e.g. on energy taxation, renewables,
energy efficiency, car emissions and land filling. Preparatory work to intensify
such ongoing work and to develop additional EU policy measures is currently
being undertaken in the framework of
the European Climate Change
Programme.

5

2.

CONCLUSIONS

The first progress report under Council Decision 99/296/EC reflects an improvement
in the functioning of the EC monitoring mechanism. The Committee and its two
working groups have established guidelines and procedures to assist Member States
in fulfilling their obligations under the decision. Consequently, the Commission has
seen good progress in Member States’ reporting on emission inventories and some
progress with regard to national policies/measures and projections.

Evaluation of actual progress was undertaken successfully with the main emission
data available for all Member States. Nevertheless the final analysis suffered from
data gaps on fluorinated gases and land-use change and forestry, and lack of
transparency of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Assessing projected progress
was more difficult since the lack of detail concerning quantification of policies and
measures, methodologies used and underlying assumptions is still considerable and
varies widely between Member States. More than half of the Member States has not
provided adequate quantification of projected progress. This makes it difficult to
draw firm conclusions on whether
the Member States individually and the
Community as a whole are likely to achieve the Kyoto target.

Member States’ projections were generally supported by Community-wide
projections on future progress. However, the unevenness of data provision among
Member States, a general lack of quantitative assessments of policies and measures
and uncertainties related to methodologies used (both at national and European level)
suggest
to apply a “safety margin” when identifying remaining EU emission
reduction obligations towards achieving the EU Kyoto target. To be certain of
complying with its Kyoto commitments the EU should therefore consider further
reductions for which additional policies will have to be developed.

A precise assessment of the effects of common and co-ordinated policies and
measures (CCPMs) and their contribution towards the EU target proved difficult
because of a lack of data on the quantitative assessment of such measures. This data
gap is evident both at Member State and Commission level, but is being narrowed
thanks to reinforced activity under the EC monitoring mechanism.

The following chapters provide more specific conclusions.

2.1.

Compliance on reporting

• With regard to emission inventories Member States need to complete their data
submissions by providing complete and higher quality data on fluorinated gases,
methane and nitrous oxide emissions as well as emissions and removals from
land-use change and forestry (LUCF).

• Concerning information on policies/measures and projections, many Member
States need to improve the quantitative assessment of these measures, preferably
at the level of individual policies.

• Also other aspects of reporting on policies/measures and projections, such as
information on the modelling methodologies and their underlying assumptions,
need to be improved.

6

• The newly adopted guidelines, both on emission inventories

and on
policies/measures and projections, should be applied fully in order to have a more
complete progress report in 2001.

• Information for the next progress report should be improved with regard to the
clarity of documents, for example by adopting common format tables for key
information.

2.2.

Actual progress of the EU

• Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union have decreased by 2.5 % since
1990. Whereas CO2 emissions almost stabilised between 1990 and 1998 (+0.2 %),
CH4 and N2O emissions decreased by 16.5 % and 9.9 % respectively. These
figures suggest that in 1998, the European Union, as a whole, was in line with its
target paths for both 2000 and 2008-2012. However, this positive situation is
mainly due to large ‘one-off’ emission reductions in Germany and the UK.
Together with Luxembourg they were the only Member States well below their
emissions target paths in 1998. France and Sweden were near but all other
Member States were well above their target paths. A cautious approach in
interpreting progress in the EU as a whole is therefore needed.

• CO2 emissions per capita for the EU-15 fell slightly between 1990 and 1998,
again largely due to reductions in Germany and the UK. Although Portugal still
has the lowest per capita emissions, it showed the largest percentage increase
between 1990 and 1998. The largest decrease was in Luxembourg.

• All Member States but one saw increases in the transport sector with particularly
strong growth in Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Increases in emissions in
other sectors, such as energy industries, manufacturing industries and small
combustion, were also widespread but generally lower than in the transport sector.

• The data currently missing data on fluorinated gases is not likely to change the
overall emission trend substantially since contributions from these gases are
relatively small (1.6% of total GHG emissions).

• The question of whether data on land-use change and forestry is affecting the
emission trend in Member States and the EU will be largely dependent on the
decision taken on sinks at the 6th Conference of the Parties in The Hague in
November 2000.

2.3.

Projected progress of the EU

Progress based on Member States projections

• With existing policies and measures (business-as-usual) Member State projections
suggest a decrease of total EU emissions of greenhouse gases (excluding Land use
change and forestry) by 1.4 % (with increases of CO2 by 2.9 % and of fluorinated
gases by 73.4 % and decreases of CH4 and N2O by 29.8 % and 16.1 %
respectively) over the period 1990 to 2010. This would translate into a
remaining gap of –6.6 % to reach the Kyoto target. However, due to
considerable uncertainty related to the
and
methodologies used, concern about the accuracy of this figure must be expressed.

implementation of policies

7

• Additional policies and measures identified by the Member States are calculated
to result in further savings of about 270 Mt CO2 equivalent. However, eight
Member States have not yet adequately identified or assessed additional policies
and measures. In addition, the effect of these policies and measures is subject to a
significant degree of uncertainty arising from their nature (these tend to be
policies in the early stage of development) and the methodologies used.

• Due to the lack of information on projected progress in more than half of the
Member States it appears the Kyoto target could only be achieved through an over
delivery (against their targets under the burden sharing agreement) by Germany
and the UK.
their
commitments under the EU burden sharing agreement then the savings from
additional measures would total only 184 Mt - about two thirds of the necessary
reductions. It cannot be assumed that to achieve the Kyoto target over delivery by
some Member States compensates for under-delivery by others.

If these two countries were to meet, but not exceed,

Comparison between Member States and Community wide projections

• While Member States project greenhouse gas emissions to decrease by about 1%
through existing measures between 1990 to 2010 the latest Community-wide
projections expect greenhouse emissions to be more or less stable when compared
to 1990 emissions (but with an increase of 4% for CO2, a decrease of 25 % and 12
% for CH4 and N2O respectively and an increase of 62 % for fluorinated gases.

• The Member States’ ‘with additional measures’ projections suggest that by 2010
total annual emissions savings of about 270 Mt of CO2 equivalent may be
achieved. CO2 emissions would be reduced by 3 % with CH4 and N2O emissions
falling by 30 % and 17 % respectively. Such “additional measures” scenarios are
not yet the subject of in-depth policy discussion. Interesting nevertheless is the
fact that these results have been corroborated by preliminary results from a cost-
effective reduction scenario to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at Community
level.

Common and co-ordinated policies and measures

• With regard to common and co-ordinated policies and measures, Member States
provided limited quantitative assessment of these measures. At EU level estimates
of effects of some of these measures are available. The one Community measure
known to have a substantial impact on CO2 emission reduction, if implemented
correctly and to its full extent, is the voluntary agreement with car manufacturers
(the increase of CO2 is limited to 4.1 % instead of 6.7%).

• In view of the difficulties for the majority of Member States to reach their burden
sharing target, common and co-ordinated policies and measures will be an
important supplement to reinforce and strengthen their national climate change
strategy. However, it is necessary to improve the quantitative assessment of these
measures both at Member State and Community level, both in terms of emission
reduction and cost-impact.

8

3.

EC MONITORING MECHANISM AND PURPOSE OF THE REPORT

3.1.

The EC Monitoring Mechanism

The monitoring mechanism for anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gases was
established in June 1993, following the adoption of Council Decision 93/389/EEC,
by the Council of Environment Ministers. This was revised in April 1999, (Council
Decision 99/296/EC) to allow for the updating of the monitoring process in line with
the inventory requirements incorporated into the Kyoto Protocol (KP).

The monitoring mechanism is an instrument to assess accurately and regularly the
extent of progress being made towards the Community’s commitments under the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.
Progress is evaluated by the Commission, in consultation with the Member States,
and is based on National Programmes, updates supplied by the Member States as
described in Article 2(2) of Council Decision 1999/296/EC and other relevant
information. The National Programmes should include (a) information on actual
progress and (b) information on projected progress.

Member States are required by 31 December each year to submit inventory data for
the two previous years1 and any updates of previous years (including the base year
19902) and their most recent projected emissions for the years 2005, 2010, 2015
and 20203. Any updates to the National Programmes e.g. new policy measures
should also be reported to the Commission by 31 December. If no change has
occurred, this should be formally indicated to the Commission.

For the purpose of facilitation and harmonisation of collection, reporting and
evaluation of data the Monitoring Committee, established under Council Decision
1999/296/EC, set-up two Working Groups. These Working Groups developed a set
of guidelines4 covering both the collection and evaluation of emission inventories
and national programmes. The Monitoring Committee approved the guidelines on 1
September 2000. Reporting by Member States for this report already includes many
of the elements in the guidelines, but often to limited extent.

1

2

3

4

by

for

sinks

removals

emissions

and CO2

Member States have to report annually their inventories to the Commission by 31 Dec year n:
Anthropogenic CO2
n-1;
Emissions by source and removals by sinks of the other greenhouse gases; final data for the year n-2
and provisional data for the year n-1.
Base year is 1990, except for HFC, PFC, SF6 for which the base year can be selected by the Party to be
either 1990 or 1995
Decision 99/296/EC requires reporting of projected emissions and removals for the period 2008 to 2012
and as far as possible, for 2005. However, in addition the Monitoring Mechanism “Guidelines for the
methodology of the evaluation of progress towards the KP targets and for reporting of national
programmes” require reporting of the projected emissions and removals also for the year 2015 and
2020.
Guidelines: Part 1: Guidelines for Member States and EC Annual Inventories; Part 2: Methodology for
the Evaluation of Progress and for the Contents of National Programmes, Brussels, 1 September 2000

year

the

9

3.2.

Purpose of this report

This report presents the results of the evaluation process under the EC Monitoring
Mechanism and assesses actual and projected progress of Member States towards
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
fulfilling the Community's commitments under
Protocol.

Under Article 4 of the UNFCCC adopted in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, the
European Community agreed to adopt policies and measures with the aim of
returning their anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, individually
or jointly, to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

More recently, at the third Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the UNFCCC held in
Kyoto in December 1997, the Parties adopted the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC,
which sets different binding emission targets for a number of Parties including the
the EC agreed to reduce its
European Community (EC). Under this agreement
greenhouse gas emissions by 8 % by 2008-2012, from 1990 levels. This overall
target has since been distributed on a differentiated basis to individual Member
States under an ‘EU burden sharing’ mechanism agreed upon by the Council of
Ministers in June 1998. The agreed targets are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Member States’ commitments in accordance with article 4 of the Kyoto
Protocol agreed upon by the Council of Ministers (EU burden sharing, June
1998)

Member State

Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom

Commitment (% change in emissions of
the six GHG basket for 2008 to 20012
relative to 1990 base year levels)

-13
-7.5
-21
0
0
-21
+25
+13
-6.5
-28
-6
+27
+15
+4

-12.5

10

The evaluation of progress towards these targets has two main components:
• Evaluation of actual progress

The evaluation of actual progress is based on emission inventories of Member States
and the Community and includes the comparison of base year inventories with the
latest available inventories to establish actual trends of emissions and a comparison
with emission objectives at Member State and Community level.

• Evaluation of projected progress

Projected progress is assessed by the collection and evaluation of adopted and further
(planned, or currently in discussion) policies and measures at both national and
Community level. This evaluation is based on emission projections of Member States
and the Community. It includes an assessment of the consistency and soundness of
these projections and their key underlying assumptions and parameters in the context
of National Programmes.

The evaluation is based largely on documents provided by Member States. This
includes documents produced specifically for submission under the Monitoring
Mechanism and other documents, such as national climate change strategies and
National Communications to the UNFCCC. The evaluation of projected progress has
also taken into account the results of Community-wide projections of greenhouse gas
emissions.

in this

The following chapters
report evaluate compliance with reporting
requirements. This is done by comparing the most recent information that is available
from the Member States with the requirements under the Monitoring Mechanism and
the draft Guidelines for reporting from the two Monitoring Mechanism Working
Groups (Chapter 4). The report then summarises the results of the evaluation of
actual progress, based on work done by the EEA (Chapter 5) and the evaluation of
projected progress, based on the information as described above and as available by
August 2000 (Chapter 6).

Background data to the report with regard to country specific data common and
co-ordinated policies and measures will be published in separate annexes (available
on
site:
http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/docs.htm).

commission’s

web

the

11

4.

4.2.

MEMBER STATES COMPLIANCE WITH REPORTING REQUIREMENTS

Compliance with reporting requirements on actual progress5

4.1.1. Greenhouse gas emissions inventories

The evaluation of actual progress depends upon the availability of the relevant
national inventories from which to compile a complete EC inventory covering all 15
Member States. By 1 April 2000, all Member States had reported data for 1998.
Therefore the European Commission was able to compile a complete inventory for
CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions for the full period from 1990 to 1998. Data was
provided in accordance with the 1996 Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPPC) and, for a number of Member States, the newly introduced
Common Reporting Formats (CRF) adopted at the 5th Conference of the Parties
(COP 5) in 1999.

4.1.2. Data gaps on CO2, CH4 and N2O

A data gap filling procedure was used for Luxembourg for the years 1991-1993 in
order to obtain complete 1991-1998 inventories for CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions.6

4.1.3. Data gaps on fluorinated gases

Data gaps on the fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) as reported by
Member States by 1 April 2000 are still considerable both with regard to incomplete
data on emissions and lack of information on chemical specification. No reliable
trends for the EU total emissions of fluorinated gases could be compiled and these
gases are excluded from the analysis in Chapter 3. However, some indicative
emission estimates are provided, based on the available country data supplemented
by results from Commission studies.

4.1.4. Data gaps on land use change and forestry (LUCF)

Data on CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions used in this report do not include emissions
and removals from land use change and forestry for two reasons: (a) inconsistent
calculation methods of Member States and (b) outstanding methodological decisions
on which CO2 sinks are accepted under the Kyoto Protocol (possibly to be decided at
COP6 of UNFCCC to be held in November 2000).

5

6

The information in this section has been taken from “Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas
Inventory 1990-1998, May 2000”, prepared by the European Environment Agency and it’s European
Topic Centre on Air Emissions.
The data gap-filling procedure was to take the emissions reported for the most recent previous year as
the first estimates. However, for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the method used the latest
estimates reported by the Member States in combination with trend information for more recent years
from latest calculations of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by Eurostat.

12

4.2.

Compliance with reporting requirements on projected progress

The evaluation of projected progress requires information on all policies and
measures under consideration and also on the emission projections for the Member
States. Policies and measures under consideration include existing ones (in the
process of being implemented) and additional ones (for future implementation).
Projections include estimates of emission reduction effects of existing measures (a
‘business-as-usual’ scenario) and projections on the effects of additional measures.
Table 2 gives details of the type and quality of information provided by Member
States on their policies and measures while Table 3 provides details on the type and
quality of information related to emission projections

Table 2. Type and quality of information from Member States on their policies and
measures

Quantitative
assessment of
mitigation
+++

Interaction
with
P&Ms

other

++

Country

Policy name
and
Objective

What
GHGs?

Status of
implementation

Austria

++

Belgium

+++

Denmark

+++

CO2,
CH4,
N2O

CO2,
CH4,
N2O
all

+++

+++

++

+

+++

Finland

+++

all

+++

+

France

+++

all

++

++

Germany

+

all

++

+

Additional
Information

Some info on
policy costs
None on non-
GHG mitigation7
None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation
Little or no costs
data and non-
GHG mitigation
not included

Little or no costs
data
non-
and
GHG mitigation
not included

Overall
investment costs
given but not for
individual
measures. Non-
GHG mitigation
not addressed
None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation

National
Programmes
and updates
Draft Climate
Strategy Report,
2000.

Specific
communication8,
June 2000

Climate 2012
strategy,
Mar 2000.
Energy 21
reviews, June
1999

Specific
Communication8
April 2000

National climate
change
programme,
February 2000

Specific
Communication8
1999, Interim
report on climate
strategy, 2000

-

-

-

+

-

7

8

Some measures may include other benefits such as reduction in non-greenhouse gases e.g. sulphur
dioxide. This comment refers to whether such information is included.
This refers to Communications prepared specifically for the EC under the Monitoring Mechanism.

13

Country

Policy name
and
Objective

What
GHGs?

Status of
implementation

Quantitative
assessment of
mitigation

Greece9

++

CO2

Ireland

++

Italy

+++

Luxembourg

+++

CO2,
CH4,
N2O

all

all

Netherlands

++

all

Portugal

+++

Spain

+++

CO2,
CH4,
N2O
all

Sweden9

+++

all

+++

++

++

+

++

+

+

+++

-

-

++

-

+++

-

+

++

other

Interaction
with
P&Ms
-

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

UK

+++

all

+++

+++

+

National
Programmes
and updates
Table compiled
by NOA, May
1999
2nd National
Communication
and national
study

2nd National
Communication

National
strategy,
May 2000

Climate policy,
June1999

Portuguese GHG
projections,
April 2000
2nd National
Communication

Specific
Communication8
March 2000

Draft Climate
strategy, March
2000

Additional
Information

None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation
Abatement cost
supply curve
given but
measures
aggregated
Overall costs
given.
None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation

Detailed info on
policy costs.
Non-GHG
mitigation not
addressed
None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation
None on policy
costs or non-
GHG mitigation

Good info on
policy costs.
Non-GHG
mitigation not
addressed

Limited policy
costs are
included.
Benefits other
than GHG
reductions
discussed

+ ;++;+++ Level of information available from the Member State increases as number of + signs increase.

- indicates no information available

The following conclusions can be drawn from Table 2:

• For Ireland, Italy and Spain the main source of information is the Second National

Communication (1997/98).

• Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and UK submitted their most
recent National Climate Change Programmes published in 1999 or 2000. Belgium,
Finland, Germany, Sweden, Greece and Portugal prepared summaries of their recent
policies and measures particularly for the purpose of the EU Monitoring Mechanism.

9

Scores relate to the most recent information, although for older policies and measures more information
is provided in the Second National Communication.

14

• Most countries provide a good level of detail on the objectives of policies and measures
and the status of implementation. However, the information based on the Second National
Communication is likely to be outdated.

• Quantification (in terms of greenhouse gas emissions savings in million tonnes) of policies
and measures (including existing measures as well as additional measures) is very limited
for the majority of MS. This holds also for information on policy costs.

• Ten Member States report on policies and measures to reduce all gases, four on CO2, CH4

and N2O and one on CO2 only.

• One third of the Member States still do not report on fluorinated gases.

• The split of policies and measures for the different gases (as far as they are given) and

sectors is clearly presented.

Table 3. Type and quality of information from Member States on their projections

Country

Scenarios presented Starting year

for
projections

Split of
projections

Not clear

+

Description of
model (level of
detail, approach
and assumptions)
++

National Programmes
and Updates

Draft Climate Strategy
Report, 2000.

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

- without measures
- with current
measures
-2 with additional
measures10
- a scenario for
methane emissions
- without measures
- planned policies
(‘with measures’)
-with measures
-with addit. Measures

-‘with measures’
projections11- with
additional measures
-without measures
- with measures
- with additional
proposed measures
- with measures
- without measures
5 scenarios12

- with measures
- with additional
measures

Not clear

++

+++

1998/1999

+++

1995

1998

Not clear

Not clear

1990

+

++

+++

+

++

++

+

++

+

+

+

Specific Communication8
June 2000

Climate 2012 strategy,
Mar 2000. Energy 21
reviews, June 1999
2nd National
Communication

National climate change
programme, February
2000

Specific
communication8, 1999
2nd National
Communication
2nd National
Communication

10

11

12

scenarios make different assumptions

The two additional measures
implementation of the policies and measures.
The two scenarios are for energy-related emissions and are based on different assumptions about the
fuel mix, particularly in the electricity generation sector.
The 5 scenarios only cover CO2, are drawn from number of different sources and make different
assumptions about future energy and economic trends in Greece.

regarding the date of

15

Country

Scenarios presented Starting year

for
projections

1995

1999

1996

Not clear

1990

1997

Not clear

Italy

4 scenarios13

Luxembourg

- without measures
- with measures

Netherlands

Portugal

- without additional
measures.
- with additional
measures
with measures

Spain

with measures

Sweden

with measures

UK

- with measures14
- with additional
measures

Split of
projections

++

++

++

+++

+

++

+++

Description of
model (level of
detail, approach
and assumptions)
++

-

++

++

+++

+++

+++

National Programmes
and Updates

2nd National
Communication
National strategy,
May 2000

Climate policy, June1999

Portuguese GHG
projections, April 2000
2nd National
Communication
Specific
Communication8,
March 2000
Climate strategy, March
2000
Working paper, March
2000

The following conclusions can be drawn from Table 3:
• Sources of information on projections differ considerably: for five Member States this is
still the 2nd National Communication (1997/98) which is likely to be outdated. For four
Member States,
information comes from specific communications to the European
Commission. These normally contain a large amount of information but there is a lack of
clarity and consistency. Five countries provided recently published National Climate
Change Programmes, which is the most comprehensive set of data received.

• The basis for projections differs widely: some only use one scenario others use more than
one but in most cases they are based on different assumptions. Six MS provide a ‘without
measures’ scenario. Seven MS present projections ‘with additional measures’.

• There is no comprehensive and clear information on the methodologies used for the

projections and the assumptions underlying the scenarios.

• The starting point for the projections is often not clearly defined.

• A few countries give splits of projections by gas and by sector, those from the Second

National Communication are generally aggregated.

Projections generally suffer from a lack of quantification of the effects of individual policies
and measures as already discussed under Table 2. This is of particular concern in the
evaluation of projected progress.

13

14

One scenario represents current trends and might be regarded as a ‘without measures’ scenario, one is
close to a ‘with existing measures’ projection, one ‘with additional measures’ and one includes
additional proposed measures.
The UK with measures scenario includes policies and measures that have been implemented since
Kyoto

16

5.

EVALUATION OF ACTUAL PROGRESS

15

5.1.

Introduction

The purpose of this section is to contribute to the evaluation of progress of the
European Community and its Member States towards meeting their greenhouse gas
commitments under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The intention has been to
perform a consistent and comparable assessment of the contribution of each Member
State towards meeting greenhouse gas targets of the EC as a whole. The analysis
does not aim at evaluating compliance of Member States with their targets, but at
evaluating their contribution to the EC greenhouse gas emissions in 1998. The
progress evaluation is carried out by comparing 1990-1998 greenhouse gas emission
data of the EC and its Member States with two (hypothetical) linear target paths:
(1) the UNFCCC target path for 2000; and (2) the Kyoto target path for 2008-2012.
By calculating the deviations from these target paths in 1998, a measure of actual
progress of the EC and its Member States in 1998 is established.

5.2.

Progress in the European Union

5.2.1.

Progress at European Union level

For the European Union as a whole greenhouse gas emissions were 4,046 Mt CO2
equivalent in 1998, a decrease of 104 Mt CO2 equivalent or 2.5 % since 1990 (Figure
1 and Table 4). About 82 % of EU15 greenhouse gas emissions are CO2; CH4 and
N2O account for about 9 % each. Whereas CO2 emissions almost stabilised between
1990 and 1998 (+7 Mt CO2 equivalent or +0.2 %), CH4 and N2O emissions
decreased by 16.5 % and 9.9 % respectively. Therefore, in 1998, the European Union
as a whole was in line with its target paths for both 2000 and 2008-2012.

15

Information in this chapter is based on ‘EC and Member States Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends 1990-
1998’, Topic Report 6 (July 2000), prepared by the European Environment Agency and the European
Topic Centre on Air Emissions. Unless stated otherwise, greenhouse gas emission data, in this chapter,
include neither industrial fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) nor emissions and removals from LUCF.
Greenhouse gas emissions are estimates and are therefore subject to some uncertainty. The uncertainty
is lowest for CO2. The absolute uncertainty in one year is higher than the uncertainty in the trends from
year to year because the variations tend to cancel each other out. The uncertainty in the trend from 1990
to 1998 is indicatively estimated to be in the order of 2 to 5%. The national estimates for CO2
emissions from fossil fuel have been compared with estimates prepared by Eurostat showing good
agreement (within 2%)

17

Figure 1: EU15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with targets for 2000 and 2008-2012
(excl. industrial fluorinated gases and land use change and forestry)

120

110

x
e
d
n

I

100

90

80

100.2 100.0

97.5

92.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Greenhouse gas emissions

Target path 2008-2012

GHG target 2008-2012

Target path 2000

CO2 emissions

CO2 target 2000

Note: The linear target path is not intended as an approximation of past and future emission trends. Therefore, it
does not deliver a measure of (possible) compliance of the EC with its greenhouse gas targets in 2008-2012, but
aims at evaluating overall EC greenhouse gas emissions in 1998

5.2.2.

Progress at Member State level

At Member State level however the situation is different. Table 4 shows that in all
but three MS (Germany, Luxembourg and the UK) total greenhouse gas emissions
increased between 1990 and 1998. The substantial reductions that took place in
Germany and the UK are mainly due to increased energy efficiency, the economic
restructuring of the new Länder in the case of Germany and changes in the UK
electricity generation mix (from coal to gas). The increase of CO2 emissions in nine
of the MS is even stronger than the increase of total greenhouse gas emissions and
soared up to over +20% for
three countries (Ireland, Portugal and Spain).
Fortunately, this rise in CO2 levels was at least partly compensated by the reduction
of emissions of methane and nitrous oxides.

18

Table 4. Greenhouse gas emissions and CO2 emissions in the EU in Mtonne of CO2
equivalent (excl. industrial Fluorinated gases and LUCF)16

Member State

Austria
Belgium
Denmark (1)
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg(2)
Netherlands (1)
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU-15

Trend 90/98
%

Total greenhouse gas emissions
1998
MtCO2 eq
78,5
144,6
75,6
76
543,6
1,011,6
119,5
63,7
538,1
5,8
225,9
73,7
360,4
70,2
657,7
4 045,6

1990
MtCO2 eq
75,4
136,0
69,5
72,5
538,5
1,201,1
103,9
53,4
514,6
14,1
208,9
62,6
301,9
69,4
727,1
4 149,5

4.1
6.3
8.7
4.7
1.0
-15.8
15.0
19.1
4.6
-58.4
8.2
17.8
19.4
1.2
-9.5
-2.5

CO2 emissions

1990
MtCO2 eq
62,1
113,9
52,8
59,3
387,5
1,014,5
85,2
31,5
429,6
13,3
161,4
43,1
226
55,4
584,2
3 320,4

1998
MtCO2 eq
66,6
121,9
60,1
63,9
412,8
886,4
100,3
40
458,3
5,1
181,4
53,8
273
56,9
546,3
3 327,5

Trend 90/98
%

7.2
7.0
13.7
7.8
6.5
-12.6
17.7
26.8
6.7
-61.1
12.4
24.9
20.8
2.7
-6.5
0.2

(1) Data has not been adjusted for temperature variations or electricity trade.
(2) Reported reduction is partly due to use of different methodologies for transport emissions in 1996 and 1998

Table 5 provides more information on the increase or decrease of greenhouse gas emissions
for different sectors such as energy industries (mainly electricity production), manufacturing
industries, transport and small combustion for all Member States and the EU as a whole.
Seven MS (France, Greece, Italy, Ireland,
the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) show
increases in all sectors. Emissions from the transport sector increased in 14 Member States
and for seven of them (Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal and
Spain) increases were more than 20 % (1990 and 1998). The majority of MS also experienced
increases in the energy (10 MS) and manufacturing sector (11 MS) however, these were
generally lower than in the transport sector. Eleven Member States see increases in emissions
from small combustion. (See also chapter 5.2.3 on CO2 emissions.)

16

MS submitted their national inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by
15 April 2000. Slight differences between these inventories and those submitted under the Decision
99/296/EC can be observed. This is due to changes made by some MS after 1 April which is the date for
submission under the Monitoring Mechanism.

19

Table 5. Variations of greenhouse gas emissions 1990-1998 of EU15 and the Member
States in percent (excl. fluorinated gases and LUCF)

Greenhouse gases

CH4

N2O

CO2

EU15

-2.5%

AT

BE

+4.1%

+6.3%

-16.5%

-14.5%

-3.6%

DK

+8.7%

+3.0%

FI

FR

DE

GR

+4.7%

+1.0%

-15.8% +15.0%

-42.1%

-15.0%

-36.2% +5.9%

-9.9%

+13.0% +11.6% -12.7%

+33.9% -12.2%

-27.5% -0.3%

+0.2%

+7.2%

+7.0%

+13.7% +7.8%

+6.5%

-12.6% +17.7%

Energy industries

-6.2%

-5.9%

-14.4%

+20.2% +16.3% +3.6%

-17.9% +15.9%

Manufacturing industries

Transport

Small combustion

-5.7%

+9.6%

+19.4% +4.2%

+8.4%

+0.7%

-25.0% +7.0%

+15.3% +23.5% +20.1% +15.6% +3.4%

+13.8% +11.4% +29.4%

+3.0%

+11.6% +22.3% -6.7%

-8.8%

+9.6%

-6.0%

+30.0%

IE

IT

LU17

NL

PT.

ES

SE

UK

Greenhouse gases

+19.1% +4.6%

-58.4%

+8.2%

+17.8% +19.4% +1.2%

-9.5%

CH4

N2O

CO2

Energy industries

Manufacturing industries

Transport

Small combustion

+6.2%

+4.0%

-4.8%

-17.6%

-0.2%

+26.0% -99%

-28.3%

+10.8% -14.8%

-31.0%

+8.8%

+6.8%

+6.3%

-1.2%

-14.8%

+26.8% +6.7%

-61.1%

+12.4% +24.9% +20.8% +2.7%

-6.5%

+36.1% +9.2%

-96.5%

+11.3% +17.8% +5.9%.

+9.9%

-17.1%

+2.2%

+2.0%

-74.8%

+5.7%

+15.1% +23.0% -6.5%

-6.3%

+76.8% +15.2% -56.2%

+21.6% +41.9% +35.1% +13.3% +5.3%

+2.5%

+2.4%

+49.3% +2.1%

+34.0% +16.7% -9.9%

+5.6%

Table 6 summarises the results of comparing the greenhouse gas emissions of Member States
with their linear target paths for 2000 and for 2008-2012.

In 1998, only Germany, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom were well below their
greenhouse gas emission target paths (Table 6). However future improvements in Germany
and the UK are not likely to be of a similar size and therefore the downward trend cannot be
expected to be maintained. France and Sweden were near to their linear Kyoto target paths.
All other Member States were well above their greenhouse gas emission limitation and
reduction paths. Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands were more than 10 index points above
their linear Kyoto target paths in 1998.

17

The reason for the apparent reduction shown in the national figures seems to be that figures for 1990 are
based on overall sales data whereas the figures for 1998 are adjusted to take account of the cross-border
sales. In general Luxembourg has seen an increase in the number of passenger cars and in freight
transport between 1990-1997. Luxembourg is currently revising its estimates.

20

Table 6. Progress of EU15 and the individual Member States in 1998

In line with
CO2 emission target path for 2000 Greenhouse gas emission target path

EU15
Austria

Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom

O
(cid:1)

(cid:1)
(cid:1)

No target
No target
No target
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:2)
(cid:1)

No target
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:2)

for 2008-2012
O
(cid:1)

(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)

O
(cid:2)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:2)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)
(cid:1)

O
(cid:2)

Note: The ratings are awarded according to the deviation of the CO2/ greenhouse gas emissions from the relevant
(cid:1)
linear target path in 1998. The following ratings apply:
(cid:2)

more than 2 index points below linear target path
more than 2 index points above linear target path
in a range of plus/minus 2 index points of linear target path

(positive contribution to the EU trend)
(negative contribution to the EU trend)

o

5.2.3. CO2 Emissions

Table 4 shows that there are large variations in CO2 emission trends between
Member States. Only three Member States reduced their emissions: Luxembourg
(-61.1 %), Germany (-12.6 %) and the UK (-6.5 %). Together, they accounted for a
reduction of 174 Mt, while in all other Member States emissions increased during the
same period by 181 Mt. The largest absolute decrease in CO2 emissions occurred in
Germany (128 Mt) and the United Kingdom (38 Mt). The largest relative increases
occurred in the cohesion States Ireland (+26.8 %), Portugal (+24.9 %) and Spain
(+20.8 %). The largest increases in absolute terms were in Spain and Italy with
47 Mt and 29 Mt respectively.

Fossil fuel energy consumption is the main driving force behind CO2 emissions. Two
factors strongly influence energy consumption: economic growth and outdoor
temperature.

CO2 emissions decreased in the early 1990s due to slow economic growth throughout
all Member States and due to large reductions in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Emissions were highest in 1991 and 1996 - the two coldest years in the 1990s. In
recent years, temperature corrected CO2 emission trends appear to be rising again: in
in the 1990s, but with relatively mild
1998, CO2 emissions were third highest
temperatures (Figure 2).

21

Figure 2: EU15 CO2 emissions and driving forces (real GDP growth, heating degree
days and energy consumption)

x
e
d
n

I

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

CO2 emissions per
capita

CO2 emissions

T
o
n
n
e
s

Real GDP

Heating degree days

Energy consumption

0
9
9
1

1
9
9
1

2
9
9
1

3
9
9
1

4
9
9
1

5
9
9
1

6
9
9
1

7
9
9
1

8
9
9
1

9
9
9
1

0
0
0
2

0
9
9
1

8
9
9
1

Note: The figure shows the trends of CO2 emissions, real GDP, heating degree days (low outdoor temperature,
mean high numbers of heating degree days) and gross inland energy consumption as an index, with 1990=100
(left side of the figure) and the CO2 emissions (in tonnes) per capita (right side of the figure). Real GDP figures
for 1998-2000 are estimates; the index of energy consumption for 1998 has been calculated on the basis of
monthly data

Between 1990 and 1998, GDP increased by 17.4 % and gross inland energy
consumption grew by 8.2 %, but the growth in CO2 emissions was limited to 0.2%
implying a decrease in carbon intensity of both GDP and energy consumption. The
main reasons
energy efficiency
improvements after the German unification and the related economic restructuring in
the new Ländern; (2) changes in UK electricity generation; (3) a general switch from
coal to gas, renewable energies and nuclear power.

de-carbonisation were:

(1) large

the

for

However, the reliance on fossil fuels in the EU is still high, although their share of
gross inland energy consumption declined slightly from 81 % in 1990 to 79 % in
1997 (oil: 42 %, gas: 21 %, solid fuels: 16 %). Of the remainder, nuclear power
accounts for approximately 15 % and renewable energy for a further 6%.

The energy industry is the largest CO2 emitting sector accounting for 32 % of total
CO2 emissions in 1998, although emissions have fallen by 6.2 % since 1990. Second
was transport with 24 %, an increase of 15.3 % over 1990 levels. CO2 emissions
from small combustion account for 20 % (up 3% on 1990) and manufacturing
industry accounts for 18 % (down 5.7 % from 1990). In general, a shift from energy
and manufacturing industries to transport and small combustion can be observed.
(See also Table 5 in chapter 5.2.2).

22

Figure 3 shows the development of CO2 emissions per Capita between 1990 and 1998

Figure 3: EU15 CO2 per Capita by Member State and as an average for the EU

)
s
e
n
n
o
t
(

a
t
i
p
a
c

r
e
p
2

O
C

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

1990
1998

Portugal

Spain

Sweden UK

EU-15

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

The CO2 emissions per capita for the EU-15 have fallen slightly, from 9.1 tonnes in
1990 to 8.9 tonnes in 1998 (-2%). This is again largely due to decreases in Germany
(-16%) and the UK (-10%). There have also been decreases in Sweden (-2%) and
Luxembourg (-65%), the latter being particularly marked. In the other Member
States, the per capita emissions have increased between 1990 and 1998. The highest
per capita emissions in 1998 were in Finland (12.4 tonnes) and the lowest in Portugal
(5.4 tonnes). Portugal, Spain and Ireland show the largest percentage increase
(+32%, +19% and +20% respectively).

5.2.4. CH4 Emissions

CH4 emissions decreased almost steadily and were 16.5 % below 1990 levels in
1998. CH4 emissions from agriculture were reduced by 6 %, but their share in CH4
emissions increased to 49 % in 1998. Emissions from waste decreased by 24 %; their
share in CH4 emissions declined to 30 % in 1998. Fugitive emissions from fuels
accounted for 17 % of CH4 emissions in 1998. The most important reasons for
declining CH4 emissions are emission control from landfills (collection for flaring or
power generation), leak reductions in gas distribution systems and reductions of coal
mining.

There are large variations in CH4 emission trends in the Member States: whereas
Finland and Germany reduced their CH4 emissions by 42 % and 36 % respectively,
Spanish CH4 emissions grew by 26 %. In absolute terms, Germany, the UK, France,
and the Netherlands achieved the largest reductions, whereas Spanish CH4 emission
increases were the highest.

23

5.2.5. N2O Emissions

N2O emissions were almost 10 % below 1990 levels. Agricultural N2O emissions
reduced only slightly (-2 %), but emissions from industrial processes declined by
the share of agriculture in N2O
36 % between 1990 and 1998. Accordingly,
emissions increased to 61 % in 1998, whereas the share of industrial processes
declined to 20 %. A small but rapidly increasing source of N2O emissions almost
doubling between 1990 and 1998 is the transport sector after the introduction of the
catalytic converter.

Large N2O emission reductions were achieved by Luxembourg (-31 %) and Germany
(-27.5 %), whereas N2O emissions in Finland increased by 33.9 % between 1990 and
1998. In absolute terms, Germany, the UK, France, and Italy achieved the largest
reductions and Spain and Finland increased most. A large share of the German
reductions was achieved in 1998 following the introduction of new N2O emission
reduction methods in two adipic acid manufacturing plants.

5.2.6.

Fluorinated Gases

As noted in chapter 4.1.3 there is considerable uncertainty in the trends of emissions
of fluorinated greenhouse gases, due to incomplete reporting by Member States.
Based on the incomplete data received from those Member States that reported under
the Monitoring Mechanism, the indicative (incomplete) EU emissions of fluorinated
gases are estimated to be 37 Mt CO2 equivalent in 1998. From other work for the
Commission, total emissions of the fluorinated gases for the EU15 in 1995 were
indicatively estimated to be 70 MtCO2 equivalent. This corresponds to 1.6 % of the
total EU15 emissions of the three gases considered in this section (CO2, CH4, N2O).
The main conclusions of this chapter are not expected to change significantly if
emissions of the fluorinated gases were included.

24

6.

6.1.

EVALUATION OF PROJECTED PROGRESS

Comparison of Member states projections with the EU burden sharing
agreement

‘with existing measures’

This section compares the latest
(business-as-usual)
projections from Member States for the year 2010 with their EU burden sharing
commitments. This comparison is useful in revealing the ‘gap’ between what current
policies and measures are expected to deliver and the Member States and EU’s
commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. However, it should be noted that the ‘with
existing measures’ scenarios for different Member States are not always strictly
comparable as the cut-off date for inclusion of policies is different. Chapter 6.3
compares these projections prepared by the Member States, with the results of the
latest Community-wide emission projection analysis.

Table 7 summarises the present situation, showing the individual Member State
commitments and the most recent ‘with existing measures’ forecasts for 2010. Also
shown is the gap i.e. the difference between the ‘with existing measures’ projections
the burden sharing agreement. Member States’
and the Commitment under
projections suggest that for the EU as a whole, compared to the 1990 level, a 1.4 %
reduction of greenhouse gases can be achieved with these measures. This would
result in an expected gap of about 6.6 % (278 MtCO2 equiv. in 2010 in absolute
terms) between the effects of existing policies and measures and the Kyoto target.

However, a more detailed analysis shows that the contribution of existing policies
and measures to national targets under the EU burden sharing agreement varies
significantly across Member States,
reflecting the different degree of policy
development between countries (with only the UK showing an expected over-
delivery with measures that have been announced since Kyoto). Comparison of the
projections shown in the table is therefore difficult. In addition projections are
subject to considerable uncertainty arising from both uncertainty in the assumptions
made in the projections e.g. GDP growth and in the degree to which the policies and
measures will
the unequal
contribution by MS towards their burden sharing commitments and the degree of
uncertainty related to the projections as such raises concerns over the accuracy of the
identified 6.6% gap between the EU burden sharing agreement and projected
emissions in 2010.

the assumed reductions. Overall

finally deliver

For some Member States this uncertainty has been discussed in their national
programmes/information, but for most the information is not sufficient to provide
any quantification.

25

Table 7. Comparison of Member States’
compared with the Kyoto commitments

‘with measures’

total emissions projections

Base year
emissions
from
projection18
(MtCO2)

Base year
emissions
reported in
May 2000
(from
Table 3.1)
(MtCO2)

EU burden
sharing
agreement

Commitment
implied by EU
burden
sharing
agreement
(MtCO2)

Scenario
With
existing
P&Ms
(MtCO2)

Austria
Belgium20
Denmark 21
Finland22
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland22
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK23
Total EU

77.1
114.4
76.2
64.5
526.1
1201.3
99.2
57.2
543
12.4
218.3
64
302.3
70.9
743.6
4170.5

75.4
136
69.6
72.6
538.5
1201.1
103.9
53.5
514.7
14.1
208.9
62.6
301.9
69.5
727.1
4149.5

-13%
-7.5%
-21%
0%
0%
-21%
+25%
+13%
-6.5%
-28%
-6%
27%
15%
+4%
-12.5%
-8.0%

-10
-8.6
-16
0
0
-252.3
+24.8
+7.4
-35.3
-3.5
-13.1
17.3
45.3
+2.8
-93
-334.2

+5.9
+15.5
-12.6
+16.7
+59.1
-229.3
+28.8
+16.6
-1.8
-2.9
+36.3
+36.2
+56.9
+12.1
-9424
-56.5

Scenario
With
existing
P&Ms
(2010)
% change
from 1990
emissions
+7.7%
+13.5%
-16.5%
+25.9%
+11.2%
-19.1%
+29.0%
+29.0%
-0.3%
-23.4%
+16.6%
+56.6%
+18.8%
+17.1%
-12.6%
-1.4%

Gap19
(MtCO2)

Gap
(% of 1990
emissions)

-15.9
-24.1
-3.4
-16.7
-59.1
-23.0
-4.0
-9.2
-33.5
-0.6
-49.4
-18.9
-11.6
-9.3
+1.0
-277.7

-21%
-21%
-4%
-26%
-11%
-2%
-4%
-16%
-6%
-5%
-23%
-30%
-4%
-13%
0%
-6.6%

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Base year emissions are those quoted in Member States’ projections, some of which are from the
Second National Communications (1997/1998). In view of the inventory updates the base year values
quoted often do not match with more recent 1990 estimates. Figures for CO2 exclude the emissions and
removals of land-use change and forestry. For most Member States, data include emissions of the
fluorinated gases, the exceptions are Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. For the
fluorinated gases Member States have the option of using 1990 or 1995 as the base year. The Member
States where fluorinated gases are included generally use a 1995 base year. The base year emissions
shown comprise 1990 emissions for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and 1995 emissions for
the fluorinated gases.
This is the gap between the commitments under the EU burden sharing agreement and the projected
emissions in 2010. Calculated using the base year emissions from the projections to maintain
consistency.
Base year emissions taken from Belgium’s information on emission projections include only emissions
from fossil fuels”
For Denmark, the base year emissions from the projections take account of adjustments for electricity
trade in 1990, because the Danish targets refer to adjusted data, however the 1990 data reported in the
inventory from Denmark as presented in Table 4 is unadjusted. The figures given in the table for
Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium are all uncorrected for temperature.
Finland and Ireland are currently updating their projections as part of a new national climate strategy.
The UK ‘with measures’ projection include estimates of the impact of some major policies introduced
since Kyoto. These policies are expected to save about 24 MtCO2 in 2010.
-71 Mt CO2 before the post Kyoto measures (see footnote 23).

26

Table 8 shows the results of the ‘with existing measures’ projection, broken down by
greenhouse gas. This reveals that for the EU as a whole, CO2 emissions are expected
to increase by 97 Mt or 2.9 % between 1990 and 2010, while emissions of methane
and nitrous oxide are both projected to fall substantially (by 129 MtCO2 equivalent (-
30 %) and 61 MtCO2 equivalent (-16%) respectively). Information for the fluorinated
gases is less comprehensive and so it is difficult to draw firm conclusions. However,
for those countries that have provided data, an increase of 37 Mt CO2 equivalent or
73 % is projected by 2010 compared to the base year25.

Table 8. Member State ‘with measures’ projections split by greenhouse gas

Change in emissions between 1990 and 2010
(MtCO2 equivalent)
CO2

N2O

CH4

Fluorinated
gases 26
+0.8

Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
Total EU

+6.9
+14.4
-10.8
+16.2
+71.2
-158.7
+28.8
+12.6
+10.4
-3.0
+46
+29.8
+55.6
10.6
-33.5
+96.5

-2.2
0
-0.6
-1.2
-11.7
-61.8

+1.2
-9.8
0
-14
+1.7
+4.6
-1
-34.3
-129.1

+0.5
+1.1
-2.4
+1.7
-13.8
-25.1

+1.5
-2.4
0
+1.0
+2.8
-3.3
+0.9
-23.0
-60.5

Change in emissions between 1990 and
2010 (%)
CO2

N2O

CH4

Fluorinated
gases

+47.1%

+300.0%

+173.8%
+146.4%

+11.1% -19.9% +23.2%
+12.9%
+52.4%
-18.2% -10.3% -22.2%
+30.1% -22.6% +30.8%
+18.8% -24.5% -15.1%
-15.8% -52.8% -36.7%
+34.1%
+41.0% +7.2% +16.8% +446.7%
+2.3%
-25.6%
+28.6% -51.9% +5.0%
+69.0% +11.8% +44.4% +1231.8%
+24.5% +10.0% -11.0%
+19.1% -16.7% +11.1% +114.3%
-5.7%
-18.8%
-44.9% -34.8%
+2.9% -29.8% -16.1% +73.4%

-20.0%
+9.1% +12.2% +547.1%
+32.0%

-4.7%

+1.2

+13.4
+16.3

+1.3

+0.1
+3.3
+1.9

+1.6
-3.2
+36.7

25

26

Community-wide projections for fluorinated gases are discussed in Chapter 6.3.
Data on the fluorinated gases is only available for some Member States and therefore the EU total is not
a true reflection of the actual position.

27

6.2.

Summary of additional policies and measures for the member states

The previous section has suggested a 6.6% gap identified by Member States between
expected results of existing policies and measures in 2010 and the EU’s target under
the Kyoto Protocol. The objective of Member States’ current climate change
programmes is to close this gap through the development and future implementation
of additional policies and measures.

Table 9 compares the required emission reduction in order to reach the Kyoto target
with the savings to be expected from additional policies and measures (where these
have been quantified). The table shows that only seven Member States (Austria,
Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom) have
provided quantification of their additional measures. Eight Member States (Belgium,
Greece, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) did not provide
quantification of these measures.

In all Member States the savings from additional measures are expected to amount to
about 266 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The major contributors to these
additional reductions are France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the UK. The UK
and Germany expect to exceed their commitments under the EU burden sharing
agreement by 66 Mt and 17 Mt respectively thereby accounting for one third of the
reductions coming from additional measures. If Germany and the UK were to meet,
but not exceed, their commitments under the EU burden sharing agreement then the
savings from additional measures would total only 184 Mt. This would leave a gap to
the EU’s Kyoto commitment of 93 Mt CO2 equivalent.

For those countries that have identified additional savings by greenhouse gas, most
of these savings are expected to come from further reductions in CO2. In many
countries, the additional policies and measures are in the early stages of development
and are subject to a larger degree of uncertainty than those discussed in the previous
section.

the accuracy of

the same concern over

Therefore,
the identified figures of
266 MtCO2 equiv. applies here. The considerable uncertainty of projections both for
the “business-as-usual” and the “with additional measures” scenario suggests that a
safety margin be applied when identifying remaining EU emission reduction
obligations towards meeting the Kyoto target. To be certain of complying with its
Kyoto commitments the EU should therefore consider further reductions in order to
allow for a safety margin.

28

Table 9. Comparison of the gap between Member States ‘with measures’ projections
and their Kyoto commitments and the identified additional measures

Gap
(MtCO2)

15.9
24.1
3.4
16.7
59.1
23.0
4.0
9.2
33.5
0.6
49.4
18.9
11.6
9.3
-1.0
-277.7

Total

16
n.q.
2.5 to 4.1
n.q.
59.6
40
n.q.
-
31.7
n.q.
50
-
-
n.q.
65
26629

Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
Total EU

Additional measures (MtCO2)27
N2O
CH4
CO2

Fluorinated
gases

1.8 to 3.2

0.7 to 0.9

48.9

-2.0

5.3

7.3

28.1

5028

65
195.2

3.6

1.6

5.3

8.2

- n.q. additional policies and measures have not been quantified

- no information on additional policies and measure

Table 10 summarises, for each Member State, the distribution of these additional
policies and measures. The table shows that the majority of countries are currently
planning additional measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and that these are
generally spread across all sectors and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The lack
of information on the quantitative effects of these measures also means that data on
the quantified effects by sector is not available for most Member States.

27

28

29

This includes additional measures i.e. those which are already implemented but not effective or where
there is a firm implementation plan and proposed measures without firm implementation plans.
A further 25 MtCO2 equivalent is planned to come through use of the Kyoto Mechanisms.
If Germany and the UK were to meet, but not exceed, their commitments under the EU burden sharing
agreement then the savings from additional measures would total only 184 Mt which would mean a gap
of 93 Mt.

29

Table 10. Summary of additional policies and measures

Country

Energy Industry Services Households Waste Transport Agriculture Kyoto

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)
.
(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

6.3.

Community wide projections

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

mechanisms
(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

(cid:1)

The previous analysis in this report used scenarios and emission projections as
prepared and submitted by Member States to assess the projected progress of the
Member States and the EU towards meeting their commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol. However,
there are potentially a number of shortcomings with this
approach, including the fact that Member States use very different and sometimes
non-transparent models/methods for their projections. This can lead to results that in
some cases actually can not be added (e.g. due to different definitions of sectors).
Also energy systems and markets have EU-wide and international dimensions whose
effects may not be captured in single country models.

For these reasons,
this section examines projected progress towards the Kyoto
emissions commitment using the latest Community-wide greenhouse gas emissions
projections taken from the ongoing study Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission
Reduction Objectives for Climate Change’.30This study has the advantage that it uses
a consistent methodology to forecast greenhouse gas emissions for the EU15 and is
able to take account of EU-wide influences on the energy system.

According to the preliminary results of the study total greenhouse gas emissions in
2010 are expected to be approximately the same as levels in 1990 in a business-as-

30

Ecofys, AEA Technology Environment and National Technological University of Athens carry out this
study for Environment DG. It will be published in latter part of 2000.

30

usual scenario. These results incorporate policies and measures in place at the end of
1997 as well as the effect of the agreements with car manufacturers to limit CO2
emissions from passenger vehicles31.

This projection is not fully in line with the results of the Member States analyses,
which suggests that in 2010, total greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be just
over 1% lower
than their 1990 levels. Comparing the breakdown between
greenhouse gases, the preliminary results of the Sectoral Objectives study project
that CO2 emissions will increase by 4.1 %32, whereas the Member States’ project a
slightly lower increase of 2.9 %. For CH4 and N2O, emissions are projected to
decrease substantially by both the Sectoral Objectives study and the Member States’
forecasts, although for these gases it is the Member States who are projecting the
larger fall.

Both sets of projections also expect emissions of fluorinated gases (although small in
absolute values) to increase considerably between 1990 and 2010 (by 62 % in the
case of the Sectoral Objectives study and by 73 % according to the Member States),
although, as noted in Chapter 6.1, data for these gases from the Member States are
incomplete. It should be noted that the methodology of estimating the emissions of
fluorinated gases in the Sectoral Objectives study was also fairly crude. The Member
States’ ‘with additional measures’ projections suggest that over the period 1990 to
2010 CO2 emissions will be reduced by 3 % compared to 1990 levels, with CH4 and
N2O emissions falling by 30 % and 17 % respectively. The Sectoral Objectives study
investigates the most cost-effective way to reduce EU15 emissions to meet the Kyoto
target of an 8 % reduction in 2010, compared to 1990 levels. The preliminary results
of the study corroborate the Member States ‘with additional measures’ projections.
However, when final results are available a further analysis of the Member States
and Community projections will be necessary.

6.4.

Summary of EU level policies and measures

The first Community strategy to limit CO2 emissions and improve energy efficiency
was presented in October 1991 (SEC (91) 1744 final). The overall objective was to
stabilise CO2 emissions in the Community in the year 2000 at the 1990 level. In June
1992, a Communication from the Commission (COM (92) 246 final) proposed a
mutually reinforcing package of measures and programmes. The strategy was based
on four main areas:

• EC energy technology programmes and Trans-European networks

• Fiscal measures

• Complementary national programmes

• Monitoring mechanism for CO2 and other greenhouse gases

The initial outline of
this strategy was described in the Community's first
Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

31
32

The agreements have been made with European, Japanese and Korean car manufacturers associations.
This figure includes the effect of the environment agreement with vehicle manufacturers. CO2
emissions in 2010 are projected to be have been 6.7% higher than 1990 levels without the agreement.

31

Progress on the implementation of the strategy up to November 1997 was presented
in the Community's second Communication to the UNFCCC (SEC (98) 1770). This
section summarises the progress that has been made since that date and the future
direction of the underlying policies and programmes.

In May 1999,
the Commission presented a Communication to Council and
Parliament, on 'Preparing for Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol' (COM (1999)
230 final) which outlined the necessary action within the EU to enable the full
application of the Kyoto provisions. In response to this Communication, the Council
stressed the need for action at Community level and underlined that Common and
Co-ordinated Policies and Measures (CCPMs) would be a useful supplement to
national strategies. To this end they urged the Commission to put forward a list of
priority actions and policy measures to be implemented at European level. The
Commission responded by coming forward with this list in October 1999 and by
making proposals to advance the policies through the European Climate Change
recent
Programme. This
Communication 'EU policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions:
Towards a European Climate Change Programme' (COM (2000) 88 final).

the Commission's

programme

described

in

is

The Commission’s European Climate Change Programme aims to bring together all
relevant stakeholders to co-operate in the preparatory work for common and co-
ordinated policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gases. The ECCP's overall
objective is stated as: 'to identify and develop all those elements of a European
Climate Change strategy that are necessary for the implementation of the Kyoto
Protocol'. It will be implemented through a structure of working groups and sub-
groups to which relevant stakeholders will be invited (i.e. representatives of the
Commission, the Member States, industry and NGOs). It is envisaged that the output
from the different Groups will then be able to be used by the Commission as a basis
for increasing the pace of existing activities and also to help the DGs bring forward
new policy proposals.

There is already a number of existing policy initiatives in support of a comprehensive
Climate Change Strategy. Some of these measures, such as the agreement with car
manufacturers on the energy efficiency of passenger cars, have been successfully
concluded. A proposal for a Directive on the Promotion of Renewable Energy
Sources in the context of the Internal Electricity Market and an Action Plan for
Improved Energy Efficiency in the Community were recently approved by the
Commission. Other initiatives such as the revision of the Common Transport Policy,
a Green Paper on Urban Transport and the revision of the guidelines on state aid for
environmental protection are in process. Not all of these policies are primarily geared
to the reduction of greenhouse gases but will result in ancillary benefits for Climate
Change. Table 11 shows potential emission reduction estimates for those policies and
measures where an estimate has been carried out. Reduction estimates for other
policies and measures will be further developed through the ECCP or elsewhere. The
reductions estimate the effect of the policy across all Member States.

32

The ACEA / JAMA / KAMA agreement is included in the baseline projection
discussed in Chapter 6.3, and the effect of this agreement and some of the other EU-
level policies and measures, particularly the landfill directive, are included in some
of the Member State projections.

Table 11. Potential reduction estimates for EU level policies and measures

Sector

P&M

Cross-
sectoral

Energy

•

• Restructuring of

Community Excise
Duty
Energy Efficiency-
Action Plan

Potential
Reduction CO2
equivalent
20-60 Mt

% Reduction
from 1990
level
0.5 – 1.5%

200 Mt

5%

• CHP

65 Mt

1.6%

• Renewables –

400 Mt

10%

campaign for Take-
off

• CO2 and cars –
voluntary
agreements with
ACEA, JAMA,
KAMA
• Reduction of

fluorinated gases
Landfill Directive

•

82 Mt33

20 Mt

95-150

Transport

Waste

2% (included
in baseline in
Section 4.3)

0.5%

2-4%

Comments

Proposal for Council
Directive, 1997

Published 2000;
includes wide range
measures
Objective to reach 18%
CHP by 2010 – strategy
endorsed by Member
States
Objective to reach 12%
contribution by 2010 –
Action plan
To improve average
fleet efficiency by 2008

-

Being implemented in
MS

33

The effects of the voluntary agreements with the car manufacturers are included in the baseline scenario
of the Commission’s EU wide projections for 2010 (see also footnote 24)

33

7.

GLOSSARY, ABBREVIATIONS AND UNITS

Actual progress

Projected progress

Actual progress is based on emission inventories of Member
States and the Community and includes the comparison of base year
inventories with the latest available inventories to establish actual
trends of emissions and a comparison with emission objectives at
Member State and Community level

Projected progress is assessed by the collection and evaluation of
adopted and further (planned, or currently in discussion) policies and
measures at both national and Community level. This evaluation is
based on emission projections of Member States and the Community

Emissions

Means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the
atmosphere over a specified area and period of time

EU burden sharing

The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC sets different binding emission
targets for a number of Parties including the European Community
(EC). The EC agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 8 %
by 2008-2012, from 1990 levels. This overall target has since been
distributed on a differentiated basis to individual Member States
under an ‘EU burden sharing’ mechanism agreed upon by the Council
of Ministers in June 1998

Greenhouse gases

Means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and
anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation

Industrial flourinated-gases HFCs, PFCs, SF6

Kyoto Protocol

see: EU burden sharing

Monitoring mechanism

Sink

Source

CCPMs

CH4

CHP

CO2

COP

CRF

The monitoring mechanism is an instrument to assess accurately and
regularly the extent of progress being made towards the Community’s
commitments under
the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol

Means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a
greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from
the atmosphere

Means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an
aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere

Common and Co-ordinated Policies and Measures at
Community level

Methane

Combined Heat and Power

Carbon dioxide

Conference of the Parties

Common Reporting Format

34

EEA

GDP

GHG

HFCs

IPCC

LUCF

N2 O

PFCs

P&Ms

SF6

European Environment Agency

Gross Domestic Production

Greenhouse gas

Hydrofluorocarbons

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Land Use Change and Forestry

Nitrous oxide

Perfluorocarbons

Policies and Measures

Sulfur hexafluoride

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

t

Mg

Mt

1 ton (metric)

= 1 megagram (Mg)

= 106 g

1 megagram

1 megaton (Mt)

= 106 g

= 1012 g

= 1 ton (t)

= 1 teragram

35