Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions on transport and CO2: developing a Community approach
Date: 1998-03-31
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: climate change, combustion gases, common transport policy, greenhouse gas, pollution

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels, 31.03.1998 
COM(1998) 204 final 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 

TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, 
THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE 
AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

ON TRANSPORT AND C02 

- Developing a Community Approach -

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

, 

1.1  Current situation,  trends and analysis 

2.  THE  COMMUNITY 

POLICY:  AIMING  AT 

SUSTAINABLE 

TRANSPORT 

2.1  Road  Freight 
2.2  Passengers cars 
2.3  Rail Freight 
2.4  Public Passenger Transport 
2.5  Shipping 
2.6  Air Transport 
2.7 
2.8  Fuel Taxation 
2.9  Fair and Efficient  Pricing 
2.10  Efficient  Infrastructure 

Intermodality, combined transport and logistics 

, 

3.  COMPLEMENTARY  MEASURES  FOR  REDUCING  CO,  FROM 

TRANSPORT 

3.1  Measures by national, regional and local authorities 
3.2  Land-use planning and transport 

4.  EFFECTS AND COSTS: AN ASSESSMENT 

5.  LONG TERM SOLUTIONS 

5.1  Further potential  for reduction of C02  from  transport..... 
5.2  Hybrid Cars 
5.3  Fuel Cells 
5.4  New fuels 
5.5  The Role of transport  R&D 

6.  ACTION  PLANS AND MONITORING 

7.  CONCLUSIONS 

5 

6 

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14 
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18 

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The  Greenhouse  Gas  (GHG)  emission  reduction  targets  agreed  at  Kyoto  mark  an 
important  milestone  in curbing  man-made  climate change. But they  represent  a first  step 
only  in  view  of  the  need  to  dramatically  reduce  emissions  in  the  long  term  in  order  to 
stabilise the Earth's climate. The  European  Union  has made an important  contribution to 
the  Kyoto agreement  and  the Commission  is convinced  that  it should  continue  to play a 
leadership  role.  The  first  priority  must,  therefore,  be  to  develop  a  robust,  credible  and 
cost-effective  implementation  strategy to reach the Union's Kyoto target. 

This will  require  action  in all  sectors  of the economy,  right  across  the  Union.  Particular 
attention  will  have to be  given to transport  C02 emissions, which, on unchanged  trends, 
will increase further  in the order of 40% by 2010 ( compared to  1990 levels). 

This  Communication  contains  elements  for  curbing  C02  emission  growth  in  transport 
building especially  on the Common Transport  Policy. The Communication  takes stock of 
existing  Community  policy  approaches  which  are expected  to  contribute  to  curbing  the 
growth  in  C02  emissions  from  transport  and  which  in  the  Commission's  view  must 
underpin  the  Community's  effort  to  ensure  an  adequate  and  cost-effective  contribution 
from  this sector to the attainment  of the  lUJ's commitments  made  in  Kyoto.  In addition, 
the  emission  reduction  potential  of  a certain  number  of  other  promising  policies  which 
could  be  taken  at  Community,  Member  State  and  local  level  is  assessed.  The 
Communication  constitutes  a first response  to the challenge  posed  by the agreed  climate 
change objectives to transport policy and will have to be developed  into a comprehensive 
strategy  in the light of the elaboration  of the Community's  post Kyoto strategy, on which 
the  Commission  intends  publishing  a  text  before  the  Summer.  This  strategy  will  also 
have to deal with the question of the sectoral  repartition  of the Kyoto target, an issue that 
is not addressed  in this Communication. 

that  the  available  "no-
In  the  short  to  medium  term,  it  is  proposed  as  a  starting  point 
regrets" potential  is  fully  exploited  by  acting  on  policy  approaches  which  have  already 
been  developed.  These  measures  are  expected  to  lead  to  significant  economic  and 
transport  benefits,  in  addition  to  which  there  are  also  likely  to  be  other  environmental 
benefits  (notably reductions in "conventional" emissions such as N()x and CO). 

This Communication  indicates that  up to 2010 growth  in C02  emissions  could  be halved 
by  implementing  a  number  of  cost-effective  policy  approaches  already  outlined  by  the 
Commission  or currently  under preparation.  I lowever, it should  be noted  that  significant 
policy efforts  will have to be made to achieve results in terms of CO, emissions by 2010. 
The  Commission  is  of  the  opinion  that  rapid  progress  on  these  measures  is  desirable 
since,  otherwise  -  in  view  of  the  significant  contribution  which  transport  must  make  to 
the attainment of the Kyoto target - more costly policies will  have to be developed. 

Promising policy approaches include : 

- Improved logistics 

- Strategy to reduce C()2 emissions  from  passenger cars 

- Revitalisation of railways 

- Promotion of public transport 

- Promotion of short-sea shipping 

- Promotion of intermodal  transport 

- Measures to enhance ATM in air transport 

- Fiscal measures in aviation (kerosene taxation, VAT) 

- Stepwise introduction of fair and efficient  pricing in all modes of transport 

- Strategic Environmental  Analysis of TEN-T transport  infrastructure  investments 

- Promotion of a series of complementary  measures to be taken by national, regional and 

local authorities, including land-use planning. 

In the long term (post 2010), the large scale introduction of new technologies such as  fuel 
cells  and  alternative  fuels  could  more  than  halve  current  transport  emission  levels. 
Although  some of these options could  reach  significant  market  penetration  rates over the 
next decade, it is unlikely  that alternative  fuels  and  propulsion  technologies on the whole 
can  make  a  significant  contribution  before  2010  since  they  are  not  sufficiently  cost-
competitive.  However,  the  preparatory  work  must  begin  now.  In  view  o( the  significant 
long  term  potential  of  alternative  propulsion  technologies,  the  Commission  intends  to 
favour 
important  investments  in  Research  and  Development  as  well  as  Demonstration. 
The  Commission  considers  that  its  proposal  for  the  Community's  Fifth  Framework 
Programme  for  Research  and  Development  constitutes  an  important  opportunity  for 
unlocking  this  technological  potential  by  making  these  technologies  more  economically 
viable. 

Clearly,  most  of  the  required  measures  will  need  to  be  implemented  by  Member  States 
and local authorities and will therefore  require efforts  at all policy  levels.To provide more 
transparency and a good co-ordination, objective  monitoring mechanisms will, have to be 
created  with  the  support  of  the  Luropcan  Environmental  Agency.  This  allows  action 
plans to be developed and  facilitates an evaluation of the effectiveness  of policy actions. 

1 n  many  cases  the  proposed  measures  imply  that  traditional  practices  and  patterns  of 
mobility  will  have to be reviewed.  Whilst  this approach  is expected  to lead  to  significant 
overall  benefits,  it is clear that  vested  interests and  rigidities will  have to be overcome to 
realise  the  potential.  The Commission,  therefore,  calls on  the  Council  and  the  European 
Parliament  as well  as  transport  operators,  users  and  workers  to  take  their  responsibility 
and  act  on  these  proposals  at  the  appropriate  level.  Change  will  not  be  easy.  But  the 
alternatives  to the  measures  discussed  in this  Communication  would  entail  significantly 
higher  costs  without  resulting  in  the  transport  and  economic  benefits  the  proposed 
approach could generate. 

1.  INTRODUCTION 

In  1995, CO2  emissions  from  transport  represented  26%  of  total  EU  CO2  emissions. 
On  unchanged  trends, a significant  further  increase  in  the  order  of  40%  is expected  by 
2010, outstripping  growth  in ail  other  sectors.  It  is clear  that,  if  left  unchecked,  growth 
in  transport  CO2  emissions  would  make  it  extremely  difficult  to  achieve  the  CO2 
emission  reduction  target  agreed  at  Kyoto  (an  economy-wide  reduction  of  8%  from 
1990  levels  by  2008-2012).  As  part  of  the  Community's  post-Kyoto  strategy, 
appropriate  action  on  transport  CO2 emissions  will  therefore  have to be  taken. 

This  Communication  provides  a  first  assessment  of  the  effectiveness  in  limiting  CO2 
emissions  from  transport  of  a  range  of  policies  at  Community,  Member  State  and 
local  levels.  These  policies  have  either  already  been  proposed  by  the  Commission  or 
are  being  implemented,  or  have  been  shown  to  have  significant  CO2  benefits  in 
research  or  in  individual  projects.  Of  course,  this  approach  will  have  to  be  refined  as 
the  Community  develops  its  overall  strategy  with  a  view  to  the  1998  Buenos-Aires 
Conference,  and  the  Commission  is  preparing  before  the  summer  a  common  and  co 
ordinated  policy  approach  to achieve  this. This  Communication,  therefore,  limits  itself 
to  identifying  a  package  of  measures  which  will  contribute  to  the  reduction  of 
transport  CO2  emissions  and  to  proposing  a  process  under  which  actions  can  be 
developed  on  different  levels. The  Commission  underlines  that  further  initiatives  may 
be  needed  in  the  light  of  the  development  of  the  overall  strategy  to  follow  up  on  the 
Community's  Kyoto  commitments. 

Clearly,  all  possibilities  for  implementing  no-regrets  measures,  which  lead  to  benefits 
other  than  reductions  in  CO2  emissions,  should  be  taken  up  in  all  sectors.  As  far  as 
more  expensive  measures  are  concerned,  an  economically  efficient  approach  will 
have  to  be  developed  that  reduces  emissions  most  where  it  costs  least.  This  means 
that,  in  order  to  minimise  the  total  burden  for  the  economy  as  a  whole,  emission 
reductions  will  have  to  take  place  in  such  a  way  that  the  marginal  costs  involved  are 
equal  across  sectors  and  gases.  The  Commission  believes 
that  there  exists  a 
significant  potential  for  limiting  transport  CO2 emissions. 

This  approach  should  take  ail  six  gases  covered  by  the  Kyoto  protocol  into  account. 
Obviously  CO2  is  the  most  important  gas  as  it  accounts  for  about  80%  of  the  total 
global  warming  potential  of  all  six  greenhouse  gases.  But  looking  at  CO2  emissions 
alone  would  overestimate 
total 
greenhouse  gas  emissions;  although  there  are  emissions  of  greenhouse  gases  other 
than  CO2 from  transport  (e.g.  caused  by  air-conditioning  systems  in  cars),  compared 
to CO2 their  importance  is relatively  small. 

the  apparent  share  of  the  transport  sector 

in 

The  high  growth  rate  in  transport  emissions  is due  to  three  factors.  First,  transport  is a 
derived  demand.  Growth  in  production  and  consumption  ,  as  well  as  structural 
changes  (in  land-use,  lifestyle,  etc.)  have  led  to  a  more  than  proportional  increase  in 
the  demand  for  transport  services.  Second,  due  to  a  progressive  shift  towards  road 
transport  the  growth  in  energy  demand  has  been  even  stronger.  Thirdly,  transport 
energy  demand  is currently  supplied  almost  entirely  from  fossil  fuels,  mainly  oil. 

In the  long  term,  technological  progress  on  alternative  propulsion  systems  and  fuels  is 
expected  to allow  significant  reductions  in emissions  at low  cost  to society  as a whole. 
In the  meantime  priority  should  be given  to the  swift  implementation  of  Common 
Transport  Policy 

measures  which  have  been  proposed  or  even  already  adopted,  complemented  by 
additional  measures  at  different  policy  levels.  A  strategy  based  on  packages  of 
measures  at  different  policy  levels  is the most efficient  way  to achieve a reduction 
in C02  emissions. 

The  most  important  measures  are  discussed  in  the  following  chapters.  Where 
possible,  an  attempt  to  quantify  or  qualify  the  potential  reduction  in  growth  has 
been  made  in a box at the end  of the section  describing  the measure.  For a number 
of  measures,  no  estimates  are  presented;  cither  because  data  was  not  available  or 
because these measures only  have a  small  impact on the reduction  in the growth of 
C02.  Unless  stated  otherwise,  the  percentage  reductions  in  C02  emissions  indicate 
by how much C02  emissions  can be  reduced  by 2010 compared  to the baseline (i.e. 
no additional  policy action)  forecast  for the same year. 

Many  of  the  proposed  medium  term  actions  would  also  help  to  reduce  other 
problems  associated  with  transport,  such  as congestion,  poor  air quality  and  health 
risks,  and  would,  therefore,  generate  multiple  benefits.  These  other  benefits  are 
likely  to  be more  readily  understood  and  more  visible, and  would  therefore  help to 
ensure rapid adoption and  implementation  of the proposed  strategy. 

1.1 

Current situation,  trends and analysis 

In  the  European  Union,  the  share  of  transport  CO,  emissions  in  total 
increased  from  19% in  1985  to  26%  in  1995.  EU  transport  C02  emissions 
currently account  for about 3.5%> of global C02 emissions. 

Whilst  in  the  period  1985 to  1995 economic  growth  in the  EU-15  led  to an 
increase  in  Gross  Domestic  Product  of  26%, CO, emissions  from  transport 
grew  by  37%). One  fifth  (about  7%)  of  the  CO,  growth  from  transport  was 
due to a modal shift  to less energy efficient  modes of transport, and  four-fifth 
(about  30%)  to  transport  growth  in  general.  Total  emissions  from  all  other 
sources  declined  by  5%  (see  also  Annex  1).  CO,  emissions  from  non-
transport  sectors  appear  to  have  been  decoupled  from  economic  growth, 
through 
fuel  switching  (in  electricity  generation),  structural  change 
(industry) and  improved energy efficiency  (the domestic sector). 

In  transport,  emission  growth  outstripped  economic  growth. 
In  order  to 
better  understand  this  development,  it  is  useful  to  break  C02  transport 
emission  growth  down  into  its constituent  components.  In a schematic  form 
these may be presented as: 

Ixonomic growth 
Real  transport  costs,  the spatial  organisation  of economic  and  social  life 
and the role of logistics in the production process. 
The repartition  of transport  demand  over  the different  modes  (influenced 
by relative prices, quality etc.). 
The  relation  between  mileage  and  transport  services  (influenced  by 
loading ratios, empty running, vehicle sizes etc.) in different  modes. 
Fuel economy (unit of fuel  use per unit of transport). 
Carbon  intensity  of different  fuels. 

The  significant  growth  in transport  CO, emissions can  be explained  by  the 
following  factors:  first,  demand  for  transport  services  outpaced  economic 
growth, especially  in  freight,  forces  driving  this  process  include changes  in 
the  spatial  organisation  of  economic  activities  (e.g.  the  completion  of  the 
Internal  Market), a reduction  in real  transport  prices and changes  in  logistics 
systems which  have generally  lead to a substitution  of inventories, by  just in 
time transport.  Secondly, there has been a marked  shift  away  from  modes of 
transport  that  are  relatively  energy  efficient  towards  road  transport.  An 
important  underlying  cause  of  this  modal  shift  is  customer  dissatisfaction 
with  prices,  quality  and  flexibility  of  these  modes.  Since  road  transport  is 
relatively  energy  intensive,  this  process  has  increased  energy  use  per  ton  of 
freight  shipped  and  passenger  kilometre  performed.  Thirdly,  there  is 
evidence  that  the  average  fuel  efficiency  of road  transport  decreased  in this 
period  due  to  a  shift  towards  heavier  cars,  for  example  as  a  result  of 
improved  safety  requirements.  The  relation  between  tonkilometres  and 
mileage  in  road  freight  does  not  seem  to  have  changed  much  (with  about 
30% of the trucks running empty and a loading ratio of approx. 50%>). 

Transport  is a derived demand: in addition to action in transport, measures to 
address  transport  C02  emissions  will,  therefore,  also  have  to  cover  areas 
outside the transport sector (e.g. land use planning). 

Bluntly  imposed  reductions  in  transport  would  cause  significant  economic 
costs  in  view  of  the  derived  nature  of  transport.  The  longer-term  objective 
should  be  to  arrive  al  a  less  transport-intensive  path  oi'  economic 
development  primarily  through  the  full  internalisation  o\' the  external  costs 
of  transport  which  is  likely  to  induce  significant  improvements  in  the 
efficiency  of  transport  operations.  Furthermore,  a  stronger  consideration  of 
traffic  generation  effects  in  spatial  planning  and  the  assessment  of  the 
transport  effects  of other  sectors  and  sectoral  policies  should  be pursued.  In 
addition,  the  focus  should  be  primarily  on  areas  -  such  as  urban  areas  or 
major  transport  corridors  or nodes  where traffic  growth  already  gives rise 
to an  unsustainable  situation  in terms, for  example, or pervasive  congestion, 
air pollution or noise. These external costs provide an additional  justification 
for measures to be taken and will  increase their political  acceptability. 

While this Communication  focuses on their potential  to curb CO, emissions, 
the  transport  policy  measures  discussed  were  primarily  aimed  at  improving 
the  efficiency  of 
the 
competitiveness of the economy  as a whole. In order to render the strategy  as 
cost-  effective  as  possible,  strong  emphasis  will  have  to  be  put  on  these 
measures. 

transport  sector 

thereby,  on 

itself  and, 

the 

An  example  of  such  synergies  are  policies  to  address  congestion,  which 
undermines  the  efficiency  of  the  transport  system  and  decreases  fuel 
efficiency.  Addressing  traffic  growth  in  such  situations  (e.g.  congested  city 
centres) would  lead  to improvements  in travel  speeds, reduced  pollution and 
significant  cuts  in CO, emissions  provided  measures  are taken  to avoid  that 
the newly  freed  capacity attracts additional  traffic. 

In order to properly  focus  policy  efforts  it is helpful  to differentiate  between 
different  modes, both  in terms of their  importance as a source of C02  and in 
terms of growth trends. 

Road  is the most  important  source which  largely  determines the trend in the 
transport  sector: passenger cars account  for about 50% of transport C02, and 
road freight  for about 35%>. Road transport C02  has increased by nearly 36% 
from  1985  to  1995.  Urban  traffic  is  responsible  for  about  half  of  the  road 
transport  figure.  Air  traffic  generates  only  12%  of  transport  C02,  but 
recorded  a  significant  increase  (57%)  over  the  period  1985 to  1995  and  is 
forecast  to  grow  at  6%  per  annum.  There  are of  course  also the rail,  inland 
waterway  and  maritime  transport  sectors.  These  modes  are  usually  less 
energy-intensive (see annex 2). 

Road  and  air  transport  are therefore  the two main  focuses  for  reducing CO,, 
because  of  their  share  in  emissions  and/or  because  of  their  growth  trends. 
For  inland  transport  especially,  a  strategy  for  reducing  C02  emissions  can 
build  on  Community  policies  already  in  place  and  proposed  to  improve  the 
efficiency  of  the  individual  modes  and  to  promote  a  shift  towards  more 
energy-efficient  modes 
towards  other 
environmental  objectives). 

(which  will  also  contribute 

However  a  cost-effective  strategy  might  also 
require  emission  reduction 
efforts  for  the other  modes, especially  when  these efforts  could come as no-
regret options. 

2. 

THE COMMUNITY  POLICY:  AIMINC; AT SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT 

Improving the efficiency  of all modes of transport 

2.1 

Road  Freight 

The  potential  for  better  and  more  efficient  logistics  is  substantial,  both  in 
terms of the location  of production  and  logistics facilities  and could  generate 
an  improvement 
in  transport  operations.  Road  hauliers  can  increase  the 
utilisation  of  vehicles  and  reduce  empty  running*.  A  pro-active  approach 
could  be based  on  information  programmes,  promotion  of voluntary  actions 
and  better  management  practices^.  To  improve  the  implementation  of 
measures  that  reduce  empty  running,  transport  audits  could  be  incorporated 
within already  existing quality certification  systems, which might encompass 

'  Fstimates  tor  the  t)K  freight  sector  indicate  that  only  around  o2  %  of  the  available  capacity  is  used. 

Adding  empty  running  this proportion  tails to Tl %. 

-  See  Action  Programme  "Freight 

the  Commission. 
Intermodality  and  lntermodal  Freight  Transport  in  the  luiropean  Union  A  system  Approach  to 
freight  transport.  Strategies  and  action  to  enhance  efficiency,  services  and  sustainability.  COM(97) 
243  final  of 29.5.1097 

Inlermodalily"  in  the  Communication 

from 

reviews  and  audits  of  driver  behaviour,  routing,  scheduling  operations,  etc. 
The  Commission  will  study  the  feasibility  of  better  incorporating  transport 
considerations  into  the  EMAS  and  will  continue  to  promote  and  disseminate 
best  practice  within  the road  freight  transport  sector. 

Improved  logistics  and  more  efficient  freight  operations  could  achieve  a 
reduction  in  truck  operations  and  vchiclc.km  in  the  order  of  10-40  %,  with 
an  equivalent  decrease  in C07  emissions. 

This  is  an  example  where  efficiency  improvements  in  the  transport  sector 
itself  go  hand  in  hand  with  a  reduction  in  traffic  and  the  associated  C02 
emissions:  innovative  approaches  for  providing  the  same  transport  services 
with  less  vehicle  kilometres.  In  1997  Mr  Kinnock  asked  a  small  advisory 
group  to consider  the encouragement  of the use of  Best  Practice  to reduce  the 

reduce 

impact  of  freight 
transport.  The  report  of  the  advisory  group  1  has 
highlighted  the  potential  of  measures  that  could  generate  significant  "no 
regrets" savings  in  transport  movements  and  fuel  consumption  in  addition  to 
very  large  cost  savings  to  enterprises  and  shippers.  For  example,  driver 
training  can 
lorry 
aerodynamics  could  lead  to  fuel  savings  on  trunk  routes  of  up  to  19%  and 
use  of  computer  routing  software  can  reduce  vehicle  movements  by  up  to 
20%). The  further  development  of  City  Logistics  can  also  make  a  significant 
contribution.  Measures  to reap  this potential  should  be  further  developed  and 
disseminated.  The  Commission 
is  currently  considering  the  appropriate 
follow-up  to be given  to the Advisory  Group's  report. 

fuel  consumption  up 

improved 

to  20%, 

2.2 

Passenger  cars 

Passenger  cars  account  for  about  half  of  transport-related  CO,  emissions  in 
the  EU.  Passenger  car CO, emissions  have  exhibited  a strong  growth  trend  in 
the  past  and  arc  expected  to  grow  significantly  in  the  future.  The  average 
fuel  economy  of  passenger  cars  improved  until  the  late  1980s  under  the 
influence  of  increased  fuel  prices  following  the  oil  crises.  However,  over  the 
last  few  years,  an  increase  in  average  fuel  consumption  has  occurred  mainly 
due  to  a  trend  towards  heavier  and  more  powerful  cars,  for  example  as  a 
result  of  improved  safety  requirements.  For  viable  development  in  the  future 
fucl-cfficicnt  cars  will  be  needed,  which  are  at  the  same  time  safe,  reliable, 
environmentally  friendly,  and  which  meet  consumer  requirements  in  terms 
of transportation  needs  and  affordable  prices.  A reduction  in  the  average  fuel 
consumption  of  new  vehicles  can  be  arrived  at  in  two  ways:  via  technical 
lower 
improvements 
consumption  vehicles  ('down-sizing'). 

in  new  models,  and  by  consumers  choosing 

Against  this  background,  the  EU  has  adopted  a  strategy  to  reduce  C 02 
emissions  from  passenger  cars  by  improving  the  fuel  economy^  with  the 

Report  of  the  Advisory  Group  on  Best  Practice  and  Charges  in  Freight 

transport  to  Neil  Kinnock, 

Huropean  Commissioner  for  Transport,  March  l()9K. 

COM  (95)  689  final  20.12.95, Council  conclusion  of  25.06.96 

objective  to  achieve  an  average  C02  emission  value  of  120g/km  by  2005  (or 
2010  at  the  latest)  for  all  new  cars. 

The  objective  is  to  be  achieved  by  a  package  of  complementary  measures  : 
(1)  an  environmental  agreement  with  the  automotive  industry  under  which 
the  industry  would  commit  itself  to  reducing  the  average  C02  emissions  of 
new  cars  sold;  (2)  fiscal  measures  in  the  context  of  vehicle  taxation;  and  (3) 
a  consumer  information  scheme  to  influence  the  market.  The  Commission 
intends  to  soon  put  forward  legislative  proposals  for  a monitoring  system  on 
information 
the  average  C02  emissions  from  cars  and  for  a  consumer 
scheme. 

is  discussing 

the  strategy  with 

the  possibility  of  an  environmental 
The  Commission 
Automobile 
agreement  as  part  of 
Manufacturers  Association 
(ACFA).  ACEA  has  recently  presented  a 
proposal  for  an  agreement  which  includes  a  C02  objective  of  140g/km  for 
2008.  The  provision  of  fuels  of  a  sufficient  quality  to  enable  the  application 
of  the  technologies  needed  for  the  industry  to  achieve  its  C02  commitments 
under  an  agreement,  is  being  examined  as  well  as  the  effect  of  the  strategy 
on  NOx  and  particulate  emissions. 

the  European 

The  objective  of  the  FU  strategy  to  reduce  CO,  emissions  from  passenger 
cars corresponds  to an  improvement  in  the average  fuel  economy  of  new  cars 
in  the  market  in  the  order  of  30%.  Further  analysis  undertaken  by  the 
Commission  Services  suggests  that  a  promising  package  complementing  an 
environmental  agreement  with  the  automotive  industry  and  a  consumer 
information 
in 
fuel 
combination  with  a vehicle  tax  related  incentive. 

implemented 

increase 

taxation 

scheme 

is  an 

in 

is  expected 

that,  during 

the  period  2000-2010,  new 

It 
technological 
developments  arc  gradually  incorporated  into  new  car  models  based  on  the 
internal  combustion  system.  While  alternative  propulsion  and  alternative  fuel 
based  vehicles  arc  likely  to  become  increasingly  available,  the  scale  of  their 
introduction  in  the  market  is  likely  to  be  limited,  unless  strong  government 
action  is  introduced. 

2.3 

Rail  Freight 

Unlocking  the  potential  of  railways  to  carry  a  larger  part  of  freight  transport 
is  a  crucial  dimension  of  ihe  Common  Transport  Policy.  The  19%  White 

Paper  on  the  Revitalisation  of  the  Community's  Railways 1 set  out  the  need 
for  the  railways  to  respond  better  to  customers1  needs  and  to  improve  their 
performance. 

The  intensification  of  this  policy  approach  in  rail  transport  represents  a 
significant  potential  for  cutting  CO,  emissions.  To  be  successful  railways 
will  have  to  be  made  more  responsive  to  customer  needs  which  will  require 

White  Paper "A  strategy  for  Revitalising  the Community  Railways (COM  (96) 421  final) 

10 

the  introduction  of  market  forces.  This  should  bring  about  more  efficient  use 
of  existing  railway  infrastructure  as  well  as  a  simplification  of  operational 
procedures. 

the  development  of 

The  1997  Communication  on  Trans-I^uropean  Rail  Freeways*  is  pushing 
further 
forward 
liberalisation:  the  first  freeways  are  already  operational  and  several  others 
are  under  development.  Under  this  scheme  some  Member  States  and 
infrastructure  managers'  open  access  to  rail  networks  on  a  voluntary  basis, 
without  waiting  for changes  in Community  legislation. 

services  ahead  of 

freight 

rail 

In  order  to  ensure  that  the  framework  conditions  for  an  efficient  internal  rail 
market  are  in  place,  the  Commission  will  come  forward  with  three  policy 
packages  in  the  course  of  1998. The  first  will  contain  guidelines  for  the  use, 
management  and  pricing of  rail  infrastructure;  the  second  will  comprise  rules 
on  the  financial  relationship  between  the  State  and  the  railways,  whilst  the 
technical  harmonisation  and 
third  will  set  out  an  approach 
interoperability  in conventional  rail. 

to  further 

Assuming  a cross-price  elasticity  of 0.5  between  rail  freight  and  road  freight, 
a  decrease  of  25%  in  railway  freight  tariffs  (reflecting  a  corresponding 
increase  in  efficiency  due  to 
improved  performance)  would  allow  a 
reduction  of  C02  emissions  from  road  transport  of  about  4.5%.  In  terms  of 
C 02  emissions  from  the  transport  sector  as  a  whole,  the  reduction  would 
amount  to 3%. This assumes  that  all  new  railway  activities  would  come  from 

a modal  shift  from  road.2 

2.4 

Public  Passenger  Transport 

On  passenger  traffic,  the  1996  Green  Paper  "The  Citizens'  Network"^ 
examined  the  potential  of  public  passenger  transport  as  a  means  of  reducing 
congestion,  especially  in  urban  areas.  Identifying  innovative  and  imaginative 
schemes  already  in  existence,  the  document  pointed  the  way  forward  for 
urban  transport  in different  circumstances. 

The  forthcoming  Communication  on  Developing  the  Citizens'  Network  will 
take  these  arguments  a  step  further  by  indicating  how 
a  modernised 
regulatory  framework  can  be  created  at  Community  level  and  which  actions 
should  be developed  at  local  level.  An  important  area  is the  case  of  regional 
trains  and  buses,  where  both  possibilities  and  needs  for  a better  balancing  of 
supply  and  demand  often  exist.  There  are  examples  where  the  energy 
consumption  and  thus  CO,  emissions  per  passenger  kilometre  are  very  high 
at  weekends  as well  as  for early  and  late departures. 

1 Communication  from  the Commission. Trans-Kuropean  freight  freeways.  COM/97/ 242  final  of29.5.1997 

-  Own calculations of the Services of the Commission. 

}  The  Citizens'  Network  fulfilling  the  potential  of  public  passenger  transport  in  Europe.  European  Commission 

Green  Paper.  1996 

11 

1 able  3  in  Annex  4  shows  that  the occupancy  rates  of  vehicles  have  a  very 
strong  impact  on  the  energy  intensity  of  passenger  transport.  When  full,  a 
small  car can  even  be  less  energy  intensive  than  a  double-decker  bus, if the 
bus  is only  one-quarter  full.  The  inherent  environmental  superiority  of public 
transport  depends,  to  a  considerable  extent,  on  the  way  in  which  it  is 
organised.  The Commission-financed  ISOTOPE  research  study  showed  that 
cost  reductions  of  up  to  15%  may  be  feasible  from  increased  operational 

efficiency  in urban  public  transport 1. As these  cost  reductions  reflect  mainly 
efficiency 
reduce  C02  emissions. 
they  probably  also 
Therefore,  the  Commission  will  further  investigate  how  the  functioning  of 
market  forces  in public  transport  can be  improved. 

improvements, 

In  the  framework  of  mobility  management  and  mobility  behaviour  in 
general,  the Commission  urges  business  undertakings  to  look  responsibly  at 
measures  to reduce  car use, as well  as to encourage  alternatives  such  as  paid 
season  tickets  for  public transport  for their  staff. 

National,  regional  and  local  authorities,  in  co-operation  with  the  business 
community  itself,  have  an  important  role  to  play  in  reviewing  the  effect  of 
subsidies  and  other  financial  and  fiscal  advantages. 
Company  cars, 
allowances  for  commuting  and  free  parking  all  encourage  rather  than 
discourage  private  car usage. 

To  facilitate  a  changeover  from  private  cars  to  other  types  of  transport, 
public  transport  systems  need  to  be  improved^.  This  will  provide  an 
incentive  to relinquish  cars and to opt for collective  forms  of transport  which 
have  a  much  lower  energy  intensity.  High  quality  public  transport  may  also 
help  to  attract  and  retain  opportunities  for  job  creation  in  urban  centres. 
Efficiency  improvements  to  public  transport  systems  represent  an  important 
potential  for  limiting  C()2  from  transport.  For  a  public  transport  system  to 
become  competitive 
together  with 
recovering  costs  and overall  efficiency.  Changes  in  behaviour  can be  further 
promoted  by effective  information  campaigns  to encourage  drivers  to opt for 
public  transport. 

it  needs  to  meet  passenger  needs 

2.5 

Shipping 

Seaborne  transport  has a much  higher  energy-efficiency  than  other  modes of 
transport  like air and road. 

The  promotion  of  maritime  transport  -  short  sea  shipping  within  the  EU  -
represents  another  potential  for  modal  shift  in  the  PTJ,  including  in  its 
peripheral  Member  States^.  A  Communication  on  short-sea  shipping 1 

'  ISOTOPE  : Improved  Structure and Organisation of Urban Transport  Operations of Passengers in furope. 

*- A  yVo shift  of passenger  ear transport  to public  transport  by bus and rail  would  reduce C(>2  emissions  by 2 % (own 

calculations of the Services of the Commission) 

•'  A  1  "» modal  shift  from  road  freight  transport  to shipping  would  allow  a reduction  of C(>2 emissions  from  transport 

h\  0.2 "n (own calculations of the Services of the Commission) 

12 

outlined  the  potential  of  this  environmentally  friendly  mode,  and  identified 
the gaps which  need to be closed  in order to make maritime transport a more 
attractive solution. 

The  Kyoto  Protocol  recognises  the  world-wide  character  of  shipping  and 
gives  the  International  Maritime  Organisation  the  task  of  pursuing  a 
limitation  or reduction  of  emissions of  greenhouse gases2. The  Commission 
fully  supports  all  efforts  to  be  undertaken  within  the  IMO  and  is  of  the 
opinion that measures decided  in that organisation  should not be restricted to 
the  shipping  industry  of  industrialised  countries  (Annex  I  Countries to  the 
Kyoto Protocol). 

In the light of the deadlines  in the Kyoto Protocol, an appropriate  framework 
should  be  realised  outside  the  recently  finalised  Annex  V  VI  of  Marpol 
73/783 

2.6 

Air Transport 

Air transport  has the highest C()2 emissions  per passenger  kilometre and per 
ton  of  freight  shipped.  Moreover,  growth  in  aviation  is  two  to  three  times 
higher than average growth in transport. 

Although  the share in transport emissions  is still relatively  small  (12%), this 
clearly  implies  that  action  in  aviation  is  required.  The  Commission  will, 
therefore,  in  1998  present  a  Communication  on  air  transport  and  the 
environment.  This  Communication  will  analyse  policy  options  and  present 
recommendations  and,  where  appropriate,  proposals 
significant 
improvements  of  the  environmental  performance  of  air  transport,  including 
C02  emissions.  Options  that  will  be  analysed  include  stricter  international 
emission  standards,  measures  aimed  at  promoting  the  efficiency  of  the  air 
transport  system,  including  taxation  and  charging,  and  the  policies  to 
develop alternatives to aviation, where appropriate. 

for 

The  present  effort  to  integrate  the  Air  Traffic  Management  System  at  a 
European  level  can also make an important contribution. 

Ideally,  the  length  of  a  flight  should  be  minimised  in  terms  of  time  and 
distance. Various constraints, such as route design, national borders, military 
operations,  layout  of  navigational  aids  as  well  as  weather  and  other 
environmental  restrictions  result  in  increases  of  flight  distances  of  about 
10%).  Significant  improvement  in  CO,  emissions  from  aviation  may  be 
the 
obtained  by 

improving  ATM  efficiency.  The  enhancement  of 

'  The  Development  of  Short-Sea  Shipping  in  furope:  Prospects  and  Challenges.  COM/95317  final  of  5 July  1995 

2  Article  2.2  and  3.2  of  Kyoto  Protocol 

•'  In  September  1997  a  Conference  of  the  contracting  parties  to  the  MAUPOI.  73/7K  Convention  adopted  a  Protocol 
adding  a  new  Annex  VI  "Regulations  for  the  prevention  of  air  pollution  from  ships"  to  the  MARPOI, 
Convention  dealing  with  (he  prevention  of  air  pollution  from  ships,  (ireenhou.se  gases  are  not  incorporated  in  this 
Annex.  An  ad-hoe  resolution  invited  the  IMO to consider  CO?  emissions. 

13 

performance  of  ATM  systems  already  mentioned  would  contribute  to 
reducing C()2 emissions in the short term. 

Studies commissioned  by  ITJROCONTROL  suggest  that  such  optimisation 
could  contribute  to energy  consumption  savings  of about  7%o, thus  reducing 
C()2 emissions at an equivalent  rate. 

In addition  to the fiscal treatment  of kerosene  used  as aviation  fuel,  the  fact 
that  VAT  is not applied  to  intra-ITJ  air  fares  may  have artificially  increased 
demand  for  air transport.  The Commission  is examining  the VAT regime in 
relation  to passenger  transport  and  will  present,  during  1998, a  consultation 
paper on this subject. The Commission  is currently  also studying the issue of 
kerosene taxation. 

Creating an integrated  EU Transportation  System 

2.7 

Intermodality, combined transport and logistics 

Putting  forward  a  new  systems  approach,  the  1997  Communication  on 
Intermodality  and  Intermodal  Freight  Transport  in  the  European  Union 1 
promotes  intermodality  as  a  tool  whereby  transport  services  are  offered  as 
mode-independent  door-to-door  connections,  based  on  a  variety  of  modal 
transport  alternatives.  The  objective  is  to  develop  a  framework  for  optimal 
integration  of  all  modes  to  enable  efficient  and  cost-effective  use  o\' the 
whole  transport  system  through  seamless,  customer-oriented  door-to-door 
services, whilst at the same time favouring competition  between operators. 

To  a  large  extent,  this  can  be  realised  by  making  more  effective  use  of 
existing  capacities  throughout  the  transport  system.  An  Action  Programme 
was  developed  by  the  Commission,  setting  out  the  necessary  measures  for 
the creation of an integrated  intermodal  transport system^. 

Moreover,  the  ITJ  has  invested  considerable  resources  into  research  and 
development  of  information  systems  for  road  transport.  The  progressive 
implementation  of these systems in the coming years will allow a  significant 
improvement  in  the  information  flow  to  car  users,  allowing  them  to  avoid 
congested  areas  and  thereby  increase  fuel  economy.  To  limit  new  induced 
car traffic  demand, other complementary  measures may be needed (e.g. road-
pricing). 

Traffic  management  measures  improving the  How of vehicles  in urban  areas 
can  reduce  CO, emissions  by  5% to  15%, depending  on  the  local  situation. 

1 Communication  from  the Commission.  Intermodality  and  Intermodal  freight  Transport  in the  European  Union 
-  A  system  approach  to  freight  transport.  Strategies  and  actions  to  enhance  efficiency,  services  and 
susiainability. COM(97) 243 final of 29.5.1997 

2  idem 

14 

As  urban  traffic  represents  about  30%o  of  all  vehicle  traffic,  this  could 
produce an overall  (X)2 reduction  from  transport of 3%. ' 

Combined  transport  can  make  an  important  contribution  to  decreasing  the 
growth  in  road  transport  movements  in  a  cost-effective  manner.  For  long 
haul  routes,  railways,  maritime  transport  and  inland  waterway  modes  have 
consistently  better  C02  performance  than  road  transport.  They  should  be 
encouraged  to take over long haul  movements  that currently  go by road. The 
aim  of  the  Community's  PACT  programme  is  to  grant  financial  assistance 
for  innovative  actions  that  promote  combined  transport.  Further  to  the 
Action  Programme  in  the  Communication  on  Short-Sea  Shipping,  progress 
in developing  combined  transport  will  be made  through  the development  of 
European  Rail  Freight  Freeways  and  by  the  implementation  of  an  Action 
Programme  to  improve  intermodality.  The  availability  of  a  network  of 
terminals  to  tranship  goods  from  road  to  rail  and  inland  waterways  is 
obviously  of significant  importance.  Effective  realisation  of ail planned  EU-
terminals  would  allow  a  significant  growth  in  Combined  Transport,  which 
would reduce CX)2 emissions by about 2 - 3%.2 

Efficiency  gains  that  could  be  realised  in  an  intermodal  transport  system 
would  reduce  C02  emissions,  e.g.  the  creation  of  an  integrated  logistics 
management  system  which  makes  full  use of  telematics  would  allow  a  C02 
reduction of about 4%.-> 

2.8 

Fuel Taxation 

Community  Directives on the excise duty of mineral oils lay down minimum 
rates  of  duty  which  must  be  respected  by  the  Member  States.  The 
Commission  has  made  a proposal  for  a Council  Directive  to  restructure  the 
Community  framework  for the taxation of energy  products^. The adoption o( 
the  proposal  would  increase  the  minimum  rate  on  gasoline  by  45% and  on 
diesel  by 27% by  1998 and  by 74% and  62% in 2002. The  increase  by 2002 
is  only  indicative  and  would  require  a  future  confirmation  by  the  Council. 
But  as  most  Member  States  apply  tax  rates  above  the  EU  minimum,  the 
direct  impact  of  the  proposed  Directive  on  national  tax  rates  would  be 
limited.  Even though  fuel  taxation  has  increased  during the  last  decade, the 
total  fuel  prices  to  the  consumer  have  decreased  in  relation  to  per  capita 
income.  Differential  treatment  favouring  public  transport  over  private  motor 
vehicles could also be established  by refunding  part of the fuel  duties paid by 

1  Volkswirtschaflliche  kosten  -  Wirksamkeitsanalyse von  Massnahmen  zur  Reduktion  dcr  COo  Emissionen  des 

Verkehrs  in Osterreich. 

'Volkswirtschaflliche  Koslen-Wirksamkeitsanalyse  von  Massnahmen  zur  Reduktion  dcr  C()2-Emissioncn  des 

Verkehrs  in  Osterreich. 

3  Volkswirtschaflliche  Kosten  -  Wirksamkeitsanalyse  von  Massnahmen  zur  Reduktion  der  CO2  -  Emissionen 

des Verkehrs  in  Osterreich 

4p Proposal  for  setting  up a Community  framework  for the taxation  of energy  products  (COM  (97) 30  final) 

15 

operators  of  public  service  vehicles.  Alternative  fuels  with  lower  global 
warming  impact couid also be encouraged by reduced rates of fuel  duty-. 

The  current  directives  on  excise  duty  on  mineral  oils  lay  down  minimum 
rates  cf  excise  duly,  which  must  be respected  by  Member  States.  They  are 
free  to  apply  rates  above  these  minima.  However,  there  is  provision  under 
article  8  (4)  of  Directive  92/81/EEC  whereby  Member  Stales  can  seek  the 
approval of the Commission  and the Council to depart  from  the general rules 
in  certain  circumstances.  Most  Member  States  have  under  this  provision 
been  authorised  to  apply  rates  below  the  minima  on  motor  fuels  used  for 
public transport. 

The  new  proposal  has  incorporated  this  provision  and  provides  Member 
States  with  a  number  of  options  enabling  them  to  pursue  more  ambitious 
environmental  policies,  without  prior  Council  authorisation.  Passenger 
transport  or  public  captive  fleets  using  natural  gas  and  LPG,  rail  transport 
and  navigation  on  inland  waterways  may  benefit  from  reduced  excise  duty 
or  motor  fuels  to encourage  their development.  There  is a similar  provision 
for  reductions  for  products  from  renewable  sources  with  lower  global 
warning  impact (e.g. road  fuel  gases and  biofuels).  Finally, the Proposal  also 
provides  for  the  possibility  for  Member  States  to  reduce  their  level  of  fuel 
taxation  below  the  minimum  rates  to  facilitate  the  introduction  of  transport 
prising instruments such as road  pricing which can address specific  transport 
problems more precisely. 

C(J2  emissions  from  aviation  must  also  be addressed.  The  Commission  has 
suggested  that the  introduction  of a tax on kerosene  should  be considered  in 
the  relevant  international  fora.  The  effects  of  such  an  introduction  -  at 
international,  EU,  and  national  level  -  is  currently  being  studied  by 
independent  experts,  The  Commission  has  proposed  that 
the  Community 
should  introduce such taxation within the framework  of an ICAO initiative. 

The  Commission  believes  that  increases  in the  Community's  minimum  fuel 
taxes  constitute  an  important  element  in  a  strategy  for  reducing  C02 
emissions  from  transport.  However,  where  more  cost-effective  other 
economic  and/or  fiscal  instruments  can  be  introduced,  these  should  be 
implemented  where  appropriate  In  those  cases  the  Commission  has  already 
proposed  that  Member  States should  have the possibility  to reduce the  level 
of fuel  taxation below the minimum. 

2.9 

Fair and  Efficient  Pricing 

The  Union's  objective  of  ensuring  sustainable  transport  requires  that  prices 
relied  underlying  costs  to society  which  would  otherwise  not  be taken  into 
account  by  transport  users.  These  costs  include  the  damage  caused  to 
transport,  CQ2 
transport 

infrastructure,  air  and  water  pollution  from 

Article 8(4) of Directive 92/81/KKC provides that Member States can obtain the approval  of the Commission  and the 
Council  exemptions  from  the genera! rules under certain  circumstances.  Most  Member  States have been  allowed 
to apply  rates below the minima on motor  fuels  used  for public transport 

16 

emissions,  the  costs  of  time  delays caused  by  congestion,  transport  related 
accident costs (beyond  insurance premiums), and the noise "pollution" from 
transport.  The  1995 Green  Paper  on  Fair and  Efficient  Pricing!  showed  not 
only  that taxes and  charges are currently  not only  set  in very  different  ways 
across  modes  of  transport,  but  also  that  they  do  not  fully  reflect  external 
costs in general. 

The  varying  degrees  to  which  the  social  costs  of  different  transport  modes 
are taken into account  lead inevitably to inefficiencies  both in the use and the 
provision  of  transport  infrastructure  and  services.  Due  to  prices  that  do  not 
reflect  the  underlying  social  costs,  transport  demand  is  too  high  for  some 
modes or for certain times of day. At the same time, public transport  services 
or  other  forms  of  collective  transport  may  be  under-utilised.  Competition 
between  modes  is  distorted,  and  artificial  obstacles  to  the  development  of 
intermodal  transport  are  created.  "Distortions"  in  demand  will  almost 
automatically  lead  to  inefficient  provision  of  transport  infrastructure  and 
services leading to higher overall costs to the society. All these  inefficiencies 
impede C02  reduction  in transport. 

If designed to reflect  the level of costs imposed  on the society,  differentiated 
charges  would  be  the  highest  in  congested  periods  and  densely  populated 
periods and  regions  (i.e. regions with  a high  level  of C02  emissions),  while 
transport in peripheral  regions would carry  lower charges. 

Road  pricing,  involving  a system  whereby  the  number  of  kilometres  driven 
on  different  roads  is  recorded,  with  tariffs  per  kilometre  set  on  road  type, 
vehicle  type  and  degree  of  congestion,  can  be  an  attractive  policy  tool  for 
curbing  congestion  and  C02  emissions.  Advanced  technology  is  now 
becoming available which may  make it possible to implement those  systems 
on  a  wide-scale  basis  with  a  substantial  decrease  in  the  related  technical 
costs, making it an economically  efficient  instrument. 

| At  the  Community  level,  the  policy  of  internalising  all  external  costs  of! 
transport  would  reduce  C02  emissions  on  average  by  11.5%. In  addition  to I 
C02  reductions, the net benefit  to European citizens from  reduced time spent 
suffering  congestion,  and  from  decreased  accidents,  noise  and  other | 
emissions would range between 28-78 billion ECU per year.2 

2.1®  Efficient  infrastructure 

Transport  problems  have  often  been  associated  with 
insufficient 
infrastructure  capacity.  Whilst  building  transport  infrastructure  is  a  priority 
with  Trans-European  connections  in economically  less developed  areas,  for 
large  parts of  the  HU expanding  infrastructure  seems  nearly  impossible  due 

!  Towards  Fair and  Efficient  Pricing  in  Transport. Green  Paper. COM  (95) 6e) i  fma! 

-  Source:  TRKNKN  It  -  Models  for  transport  environment  and  energy,  working  paper,  (998,  KUNKT  -  Socio 

economic and spatial  impacts of transport, working paper 199X. 

17 

to  physical,  social  or  environmental  reasons.  In  such  cases  transport 
infrastructure  policy must aim to manage transport demand better. 

With the entry  into force  of the Maastricht Treaty, additional  emphasis is put 
on  the  development  of  a  Trans-European  Transport  Network  (TEN-T), 
contributing  to  the overall  sustainability  of transport  systems. By  using part 
of  the  TEN-T  budget  for  projects  which  permit  a  modal  shift  from  road  to 
other  means  of  transport,  a  more  sustainable  transport  chain  can  be 
promoted.  In the same way  TEN-T  implementation  in the different  Member 
States  will  give  priority 
the  development  and  establishment  of 
interoperability  between  national  networks,  transfer  points,  nodes  and 
terminals  as  well  as  to  the  use  of  intelligent  traffic  management  systems  to 
optimise the use of  infrastructure. 

to 

The  services  of  the  Commission  are  developing  a  methodology  for  the 
Strategic  Environmental  Assessment  (SEA)  of  the  TEN-T.  Systematic 
implementation  of  this  new  policy  tool  would  improve  the  sustainability  of 
transport  systems,  i.a.  in  terms  of  C02  emissions,  by  augmenting  the 
importance of environmental  sustainability  considerations in the selection of 
projects. 

Furthermore,  the  development  of  GNSS  (Global  Navigation  Satellite 
Systems), in particular as part of the TEN-T can improve transport  efficiency 
for all modes, through  more reliable, efficient  and highly  accurate navigation 
and positioning-fixing  services for European and other users. 

The  improved  transport  efficiency  and  reliability  of  transport  resulting  from 
carefully  selected  investments  in  transport  infrastructure  and  telematics  will 
have  a  beneficial  impact  on  CO,  emissions  as  demonstsrated  in  several 
THERMIE  projects,  provided  they  don't  generate  additional  transport 
demand. 

3. 

COMPLEMENTARY  MEASURES FOR REDUCING C 02  FROM TRANSPORT 

In  the  preceding  chapters  the  emphasis  was  mainly  put  on  a  series  of 
instruments  for combating  C02  emissions which have been developed  under 
the  Common  Transport  Policy  since  the  publication  of  the  1992  White 
Paper'. 

But  in  addition  lo  CTP-driven  regulatory  and  economic/fiscal  measures,  a 
CO, abatement  policy could also benefit  from  initiatives taken by national  or 
local  authorities.  The need  for  and  the  strength  of  such  additional  measures 
is  likely  to  be  different  between  Member  States  according  to  their  specific 
local situation. 

White Paper on the Future Development  of Transport  Policy COM (92) 494 

18 

3.1  Measures by national, regional and local authorities 

Within the framework  of a belter traffic  management - often  in relation to air 
quality  management  -  national  and  local  authorities  can  piay  an  important 
role  by  contributing  to  the  development  uf  traffic  plans.  They  are  ideally 
placed  to  deploy  measures  to  discourage  the  use  of  the  private  car  and  to 
encourage  the  use  o(  public  transport  and  alternative  forms  of  transport 
including, in some areas, cycling and walking. 

Measures to control  the availability  of parking in congested areas can best be 
implemented  by  local  authorities.  Higher  parking  charges  may  be  more 
effective  in  reducing  short  range  trips  into  a  city  centre  rather  than  long 
distance journeys. 

Authorities  can  restrict  certain  lanes  to  high  occupancy  vehicles  in  order  to 
encourage  car-sharing  especially  during  rush  hours.  Low vehicle  occupancy 
means  more  vehicles  on  the  road,  more  congestion,  higher  energy 
consumption  and  more  C02  emissions.  However,  as  is also  the  case  with  a 
number  of  other  traffic  management  schemes,  the  effect  of  car-sharing  on 
C02  emissions  can  be diminished  by a  latent  surge  in demand  provoked  by 
increased  free  capacity.  Other  measures  which  could  be  envisaged  by  local 
authorities  include  "Park  and  Ride  Facilities"  to  encourage  people  to  leave 
their  cars  on  the  outskirts  of  cities  and  to  use  public  transport  to  complete 
their journeys, thereby  reducing congestion and C02 emissions. 

Various  traffic  calming  measures  can  also  have  benefits  in  terms  of  C02 
reduction.  The  systematic  introduction  of  such  measures,  combined  with 
restrictions  for  cars and  lorries (especially  in urban  areas) may  in the  longer 
term affect  the propensity  to travel.  By reducing  the average  speed  of  traffic 
behavioural  changes  may  be  provoked  (e.g.  a  wider  use  of  cycling  and 
walking). 

The circulation  of  lorries  in cities creates a specific  problem.  In some cases, 
City  Logistics  Systems  have  been  able  to  reduce  the  mileage  driven  within 
city  centres  by  some  60%,  as  demonstrated  by  THERMIE  programme. 
Under  such  a system  an  independent  city  logistics  company  collects  freight 
from  the  forwarders'  terminals  according  to a fixed timetable.  After  sorting, 
the  goods  are  transported  to  the  destinations  along  optimised  routes.  The 
system  not  only  reduces  C()2  emissions  from  transport,  it  also  reduces 
uneconomical  licet use. 

Technological  and organisational  measures  in transport  need to be supported 
instruments.  Only  a 
and/or  balanced  by  appropriate  fiscal/economic 
combination  of  measures  can  produce  a  substantial  reduction  of  C02 
emissions  in  cities  while  also  meeting  other  environmental  goals  together 
with the need  for fair access for all. 

19 

Possible  impact  of  various  local  measures 1 on  total  C02  emissions  from 
transport (% reductions): 

•  promotion of cycling: 4% 
speed limits and better speed control: 5% 
• 
• 
information  campaigns: 3% 
•  higher urban parking charges: 1% 
• 

restrictions for cars and lorries in cities: 1%. 

3.2 

Land-use planning and transport 

Good  collaboration  between 
traffic 
management  and land-use planners is important  for the long-term  efficiency 
of  transport  systems.  Land-use  plans  should  be  carefully  designed  in  the 
context of long-term mobility plans. 

those  who  are  responsible 

for 

By considering where people live and where their professional  activities take 
place,  land-use  planners  can  make  a  useful  contribution  to  more  efficient 
mobility  in terms  of trips  made, distance  travelled  and  the  type  of  transport 
mode  used.  As  land-use  policies  have  a  direct  effect  on  C02  emissions, 
effective  long-term  land-use  planning  can  influence  C02  emissions  from 
transport by minimising the need to travel. 

The  need  to  travel  can  be  minimised  in  several  ways:  by  reducing  the 
distance between  places of residence, employment  and commercial  or  other 
activities. Urban sprawl has given rise to longer average travel distances per 
trip per person per day. It is clear that land-use planning can also enhance the 
functioning  of public transport, by ensuring that trip-generating  activities are 
concentrated  in  locations  that  are  easily  accessible  by  public  transport.  The 
combination  of  better  traffic  management,  improved  public  transport  and 
integrated land-use can have an important leverage effect  on the efficiency  of 
the transportation system and on the demand for mobility. 

Land-use  policies  are  not  efficient 
in  reducing  C02  unless  they  are 
complemented  by  a  package  of  transport  policy  measures.  Emissions  per 
capita per day can be reduced to about one third by 2010 using the  following 
bundle of measures^ 

increased prices for car use and financial  incentives to use more  efficient 
cars 
increased inner-city parking charges 
faster public transport (25%) and reducing car speeds by 40% 
land-use  management  in  the  periphery  in  order  to  reverse  the  trend  of 
urban sprawl. 

1  Volkswirtschaftliche  Kosten-Wirksamkeitsanalyse  von  Massnahmen  zur  Reduktion  der  CC^-Emissionen  des 

Verkehrs in Osterreich. 

2 

IRPUD 
http://irpud.raumplanung.unidortmund.de/irpud/pro/co2/co2-e.htm. 

(1998):  Sustainable 

spatial 

urban 

structures.  Do  we 

reed 

to 

rebuild 

our 

cities? 

20 

4. 

EFFECTS  AND COSTS:  AN  ASSESSMENT 

Developing  a cost-effective  approach  for transport  C02  reduction  means arriving  at 
a  least-cost  package  of  compatible  measures  which  realises  a  given  objective  for 
C02  reduction.  A  given  objective  for  C02  reduction  can  be  achieved  by  different 
combinations of levels of mobility, carrier energy  efficiency  and fuel  mix. It is also 
possible that changes in one of those three factors will not take place  independently, 
but will have feedback  effects  on the other two factors. These feedback  effects  may 
be positive but also negative. 

For those reasons any quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness  of policy measures 
intended  to reduce congestion,  energy-consumption  and related  C02  emissions  will 
inevitably  be  surrounded  by  relatively  large  margins  of  uncertainty.  However,  by 
bringing  together  available  results  from  research  in  this  area,  it  is  possible  to 
indicate  orders  of  magnitude  of  expected  effects  from  various  policy  instruments 
and combinations of them. 

Fully  implementing  the  package  of  transport  policy  measures  outlined  in  this 
Communication  could  reduce  C02  emissions  from  transport  by  a maximum  of 20-
35% in comparison to the baseline. The most important reductions, of up to  7-16%, 
would  come  from  the  internalisation  of  external  costs  of  transport  by  means  of 
efficient  pricing (see Annex V). Fully implementing the passenger car fuel  economy 
strategy  could  reduce  C02  by  3  to  9%  in  2010.  Obviously,  more  important 
reductions  in  C02  emissions  will  occur  after  2010 with the  progressive  renewal  of 
the car fleet.  Revitalisation  of railways, the introduction  of a modernised  regulatory 
framework  for  public  transport  and  developing  intermodaiity  and  logistics  could 
decrease  C02  by  up  to  almost  10%.  Because  of  interaction  effects  between  the 
different  measures, the total  reduction  potential  is not  equal to a simple  addition  of 
the effects  of the individual measures. Moreover,  since the implementation  of some 
of these measures  will require careful  preparation  and a phasing in, the  realistically 
achievable reduction is likely to be of the order of 20-25 %. 

In  many  cases, these policy  measures  would  also  lead  to  economic  advantages  for 
society,  rather  than  implying  an  overall  cost.  For  example, 
internalisation  of 
external  costs at Community  level  would  bring  about  benefits  ranging  between 28-
78  billion  ECU  due  to  less time  spent  in  congestion,  decreases  in  accidents,  noise 
and other emissions and better land-use planning. 

5. 

LONG TERM SOLUTIONS 

5.1 

Further potential for reduction of C02 from  transport 

There  are  obviously  limits  to  the  fuel  efficiency  improvements  that  can  be 
gained  by  further  improving the  internal  combustion  engine. For the  future, 
the  technical  answer  to  the  problem  of  C02  emissions  lies  in  the 
development  of  alternative  propulsion  technologies,  notably  hybrid  car 
technology and fuel cells. 

21 

5.2  Hybrid Cars 

In the medium-term,  C02  reductions can be obtained  by the introduction  of 
hybrid  cars  powered  by  a  combination  of  a  battery  and  a  conventional 
engine.  Hybrid  technology  could  provide  20-50%  fuel  savings  in  urban 
driving conditions compared to existing vehicles. 

5.3 

Fuel CeHs 

Fuel  cell  technology  is a  longer-term  solution,  although  several  automobile 
constructors are already announcing the commercialisation  of such vehicles -
probably  on a limited  scale - by  2004. Fuel cell  vehicles  produce  electricity 
for  an  electric  motor  directly  from  a  chemical  reaction.  Due  to  their  high 
energy efficiency  fuel  cells have a high C()2 emission reduction potential. 

The  main  barrier  to the deployment  of  fuel  cells  is  cost. The main  research 
targets  within  the  next  five  to  ten  years  will  be  cost  reduction,  system 
simplification  and  improved  lifetime  and  reliability.  Some  of the  necessary 
cost  reduction  is  expected  to  come  as  a  result  of  volume  manufacturing. 
There  exists  also  a  need  for  cheaper  materials  and  low-cost  component 
designs. 

5.4 

New fuels 

The  potential  of  new  fuels,  including  biofuels\  to  reduce  C02  emissions 
depends  on  a number  of elements,  in  particular  their  production  costs, their 
the  availability  of  adequate  distribution 
production  capacity  and 
infrastructures  which should therefore  be developed where appropriate. 

In  the  longer  term,  technological  constraints  preventing  alternative  vehicles 
from  competing  with  conventional  diesel  and  gasoline  vehicles  will  be 
reduced. 

5.5 

The Role of transport related R <&1) 

A transport research  and development strategy  should  aim to further  develop 
the  long-term  strategies  for  sustainable  transport.  These  strategies  should 
to  be 
also  address  promising  solutions 
implemented  in the short term. 

too  expensive 

that  are  yet 

Transport  related  research  in  the  4th  Framework  programme  for  research, 
development and demonstration  has focused  mainly on experimentation  with 
alternative  transport  policies, and  the development  of  more  energy-efficient 
road  vehicles  and  aircraft.  The  further  development  of  technologies  will 
allow a swift  modal shift to rail or shipping. 

1 

In the  White  Paper on  Renewable  Energy  Sources (COM/97/599 final) the Commission  puts  forward 
an action plan to promote the use of renewable energy. 

22 

tools 

these 

implementation  of 

techniques.  Appropriate 

Research  into  technologies  which  will  allow  improved  batteries,  fuel  cells, 
transmission  and  control  systems  for  hybrid  vehicles,  more  energy  efficient 
aircraft,  etc. is already  under  way and  should  shorten  the  path towards  a cost-
efficient 
for 
supporting  the  monitoring  of  carbon  dioxide  emissions  from  transport  are 
being  developed.  It  is  the  intention  to  continue  this  process  under  the  Fifth 
Framework  Programme  for  Research  and  Demonstration  (1998  -  2002) 
addressing  all  elements  for  establishing  a  long-term  balance  between  the 
growing  demand  for  mobility  and  the  various  environmental,  social  and 
economic  constraints. 
Research 
the  production-
consumption  process  is  expected  to  provide  ideas  on  how  to  decouple  the 
link between  economic  growth  and  traffic  volumes. 
To  enhance  the  efficiency  of  transport  special  attention  will  also  be  given  to 
the operational,  regulatory  and  administrative  aspects. 

the  relationship  between 

transport  and 

into 

6. 

ACTION  PLANS  AND  MONITORING 

As  the  implementation  of  an  efficient  C02  policy  in  the  transport  sector  has  to  be 
based  on  a  package  of  complementary  measures  and  concerns  many  decision 
making  levels  and  actors, a good  co-ordination  is a pre-requisite  for  its  success. It  is 
best  supported  by  action  plans  at  different  levels  -  Community,  Member  States, 
local  government  -  involving  the  different  stakeholders  (e.g.  the  general  public, 
business  community).  These  actions  plans  should  also  take  into  account  benefits  in 
terms  of  other  transport  and  environmental  objectives  which  will  enhance  their 
overall  attractiveness.  Action  plans and  their  implementation  should  be  supported  by 
monitoring  mechanisms  on  the  development  in  transport  CO,  emissions  which 
should  also  include  policy  monitoring. 

Action  plans  at the  most  appropriate  levels should  be oriented  towards  achieving  the 
full  potential  of  the  package  of  measures  outlined  in  this  Communication.  They 
should  be  based  on  the  identification  of  measures  to be  taken  and  of  the  responsible 
actors  and  on  an  analysis  of  the  effectiveness  of the  measures. They  should  lead to  a 
consensus  between  the  relevant  actors  about  the  sharing-out  of  responsibilities.  The 
implementation  of 
the  responsible 
authorities  in  co-operation  with  the  other  actors  involved  and  reviewed  if  its 
effectiveness  should  prove  insufficient. 

the  action  plan  should  be  monitored  by 

A  more  precise  definition  of  these  action  plans  and  their  contents,  including  the 
question  of  possible  sectoral  targets,  can  only  take  place  when  the  overall  post 
Kyoto  strategy  is developed  in more  detail. 

The  Commission  -  in  co-operation  with  the  European  Knvironmcnt  Agency  -  is 
currently  working  on  the  development  of  a  broader  monitoring  system  on  transport 
and  environment  which  will  include  CO,. 

7. 

CONCLUSIONS 

On  unchanged  trends  and  policies,  CO,  emissions  from  transport  -  road  and  air 
transport  in  particular  -  will  continue  to  rise  strongly.  If  left  unchecked,  this  strong 
23 

growth  would  pose  significant  problems  for  achieving  the  emission  reduction 
objective  agreed  in Kyoto. Policy action in transport is therefore  required. 

The  analysis  presented  in  this  Communication  allows  two  main  conclusions  to  be 
drawn about how this can be achieved: 

* 

In the medium  term (up until  2010) growth  in C02  emissions  from  transport can 
be  roughly  halved  by  fully  and  rapidly  implementing  a  number  of  policy 
approaches  that  the  Commission  has  put  forward.  Four  broad  categories  of 
measures are crucial  in this respect: 

•- Action on passenger car fuel  economy 

- Progress with  fair and efficient  pricing in transport 

- The completion of the internal  market in rail transport 

-  Measures  to better  integrate  the various modes of transport,  both in  freight 

and in  passenger transport  into intermodal  transport systems. 

The  estimates  presented  in  this  paper  indicate  that,  if  implemented  as  part  of  a 
coherent  policy  strategy,  these  measures  have  the  potential  to  reduce  growth  in 
emissions by  20-25%  below  the baseline  over the  next  15 years, marking  a radical 
break in current trends. 

They  also  have two  key  characteristics  in common:  Firstly,  they  are likely  to result 
in significant  economic, environmental  and  transport  benefits,  because they  enhance 
transport  efficiency  and  attainability.  Secondly,  they  require  major  changes  in 
in  operating 
existing  policy  frameworks  and  sometimes  difficult  adjustments 
practices.  Together  they  represent  a  challenging  agenda  that  clearly  cannot  be 
achieved  overnight.  However,  the  importance  of  reaching  the  Kyoto  target 
reinforces  the need  to make more urgent progress on these policies. 

• 

In the longer term  (post 2010) alternative  propulsion  systems and  fuels  hold  out 
the  potential  for  radical  reductions  in  transport  CG2  emissions.  Most  of  these 
options,  however,  are  still  too  costly  and  have  operating  drawbacks.  It  is 
therefore  unlikely  that  they  will  be able to make  a major  contribution  to cutting 
emissions from  transport  before 2010. 

A  bold  Research  and  Development  programme  is  needed  to  resolve  these 
problems.  That  is why  the  Commission  in its proposal  for the  Fifth  Framework 
Programme  for  Research  and  Development  (FPV)  put  significant  emphasis  on 
key  actions  that  will  help  to  address  transport  policy  challenges..  In  addition, 
is 
demonstration  and  experimentation  are  essential  and  the  Commission 
assisting  Member  States  and  local  and  regional  authorities  in  this  process 
through  the ALTHNHR and T13HRM1H programmes. 

24 

Three additional considerations regarding the  approach should be borne in mind: 

First, many of the required  measures need to be implemented  by Member States and 
local  authorities. The approach  can,  therefore,  only  be successful  if supported  at all 
policy  levels.  This  will  also  require  that  responsibilities  for  implementation  are 
clearly assigned. 

Secondly,  although  the  measures  outlined  in  this  Communication  are  expected  to 
lead  to  significant  economic  and  environmental  gains,  its  implementation  will 
require  major  efforts  at  all  policy  levels  and  will  affect  both  transport  workers  and 
users  significantly.  It  will  only  succeed  li' h  is  given  the  necessary  attention  and 
emphasis.  Therefore,  the  Commission  believes  that  action  plans  for  C02  reduction 
are needed at different  levels, involving all  the stakeholders. Alternative  approaches 
that do not fit into this  framework  could also  undermine its implementation  and risk 
carrying a significant  cost. 

Thirdly, monitoring  the effects  of these  policies on C02  emissions from  transport  is 
essential  to  evaluate  their  (cost-)effectiveness  and  to  provide  more  transparency  in 
policy  development.  Moreover,  through  the  exchange  of  best  practice  which  this 
process engenders, monitoring and dissemination  of results is expected to contribute 
to  a  more  effective  policy  development 
the  Community.  The 
Commission will invite the European  Environment Agency to carry out this task and 
report on a regular basis. 

throughout 

25 

Annex 1 

Table 1 

EU  15 

Mio tonnes  CO2 

1985 

Growth 
90/85 
%  p.a. 

1990 

Growth 
95/90 
% p.a. 

1995 

Cjrowlh 
1995/1985 
% p.a.%/period 

Total 

2 997.3 

0.6 

3 087.7 

-0.3 

3 047.6 

0.2 

1.7 

Electricity and heat 
Energy  Branch 
Industry 
Household 
Transport 

Railways' 
Road transport 
Air  transport 
Inland navigation 

926.2 
126.1 
625.8 
733.9 
585.3 
11.7 
499.7 
61.5 
12.4 

1.4 
0.9 
-1.4 
-2.6 
4.7 
-4.9 
4.6 
5.9 
10.7 

994.1 
132.0 
581.8 
642.0 
737.8 
9.1 
626.1 
82.0 
20.6 

-1.0 
1.7 
-2.1 
-0.3 
1.7 
-1.4 
1.6 
3.3 
0.0 

946.4 
143.4 
523.4 
630.9 
803.5 
8.5 
677.9 
96.5 
20.6 

0.2 
1.3 
-1.8 
-1.5 
3.2 
-3.1 
3.1 
4.6 
5.2 

2.2 
13.7 
-16.4 
-14.0 
37.3 
-27.4 
35.7 
56.9 
66.1 

Source: EUROSTAT 

Not  including emissions due to electricity  generation 

JL 

Annex 2 

Table 2 (a) 

Estimated specific emissions of CO, 

Estimate for EU IS 
C02-emissions in 
gram/passenger.km 
125 
45 
65 
200 

Passenger 
traffic 
Road Car 
Road Bus 
Railway 
-A ir 
Freight traffic  CQ2-emissions in gram/tom.km 
Road 
Rail 
Inland 
Navigation 
Maritime 
Transport 

190 
To 
30 

~~ 

2 

J? 

Estimated  Average 
0) 

life  -cycle  CO,  emissions 

in  g/km 

Annex  3 

I Total 

Fuel 
222-282 
Gasoline 
222-283 
Reformulated  Gasoline 
Diesel 
173-266 
Liquefied  Petroleum  Gases  180-203 
(LPG) 
Compressed  Natural  Gas  164-253 
(CNG) 
Methanol  from  Coal 
Methanol  from  NG 
Methanol  from  Wood 
Ethanol  from  Sugar Cane 
Ethanol  from  Corn 
Ethanol  from  Wood 
Liquid  Hydrogen  1CEV 
Liquid  Hydrogen  FCEV 
EV 
generated  from: 
Coal 
Oil 
Gas (CCGT) 
Nuclear 
Hydro  rencwablcs 

424-426 
250-252 
65-81 
70-123 
90-263 

224-423 
214-403 
134-182 
59-63 
44-48 

~  65-81 
29-88 
48-77 

electricity 

-using 

(I)  Source:  Policies  Measures 
for  Common  Section, 
Working  Paper  13  L.  Michael is,  OliCD  (Annex  I  Expert 
Group on the UN FCC) 

JY 

Annex  4 

Table 3 - Primary  energy  use of different  modes  of 
transportation  at different  occupancies,  in  megajoules 
per  passenger  kilometre. 

Automobile: 
Diesel under  1.4  litres 
Gasoline over 2.0 litres 

Railway: 
German  Inter-city 
Brussels-Paris TGV 

Bus: 
Double-decker 
Minibus 

Aircraft: 
Boeing 727 
Airbus A320 

Occupancy 
I 

25% 

2.26 
4.65 

1.14 
2.86 

0.70 
1.42 

5.78 
4.02 

100% 

057 
1.16 

0.29 
0.72 

0.17 
0.35 

1.45 
1.15 

Source:  OECD  Proceedings.  Towards  Sustainable 
Transportation.  The Vancouver  Conference. 

^ 
of! 

Annex  5 

Cost-efficiency  analysis  of  CQ2  reduction  policy 
measures 

In the passenger car sector C()2 policy measures may be taken at low 
cost  because  car  owners  do  not  fully  take  into  account  future  fuel 
costs  when  buying  a  car.  This  is  less  likely  to  occur  in  the  freight 
sector.  Calculations  with  the  TTJCARS-model  indicate  that  fine-
tuned  combinations  of  instruments  offer 
the  best  chances  for 
realising  more  ambitious  targets  at  lower  costs.  A  combination  of 
lax  incentives  and  fuel  taxation,  has  been 
fiscal  instruments,  i.e. 
identified  as  being  very  efficient.  Appropriate  forms  of  purchase 
incentivesstrengthen the effect  of the  fuel  tax  The main  conclusion 
to  be drawn  from  these  simulation  results  is that  some  combination 
of the two different  forms of  fiscal  instruments would  be less costly 
than either alone. 

Simulations  of  the  effect  of  a  decrease  in  real  prices  of  public 
transport  indicate that  its efficiency  is low.  This can  be attributed  to 
essentially  two  elements.  Firstly,  evidence  shows  that  the  quality 
and  availability  of  public  transport  is more  important  than  its price. 
Secondly, the existing low market share of public transport  limits the 
relative  importance  of  any  measure  in  this  area,  especially  in  the 
short-and-medium-term. 

Using the transport  model  TRKNfiN'  for  Brussels and the transport-
land  use model  Meplan^  for  London and  south east  f ngland,  for the 
Helsinki  region,  the  Basque  country  and  Naples  region,  the  cost 
effectiveness  of some pricing measures has been analysed. 

The  results  of  the  model  runs  indicate  that  the  most  cost  efficient 
measure  in  each  case  is  the  policy  of  internalising external costs. 
C()2  emission  reductions  range  from  7%  (Basque  region)  to  16% 
(Naples  region)  with  benefits  ranging  between  130-300  MTXTJ  per 
year.  The  benefits  consist  of decreases  in congestion,  accidents  and 
other  externalities  and  in  the  Meplan  model  also  of  more  optimal 
locational choices. 

The  results  for  Brussels  show  that  the  internalising  of  external 
effects  could  be  approximated  by  a  simple  cordon  toll  and 
abolishing  unpaid parking. This measure would  reduce CO, by  11% 

1  ! RI'NI'.N  I! -  Models  for  Transport,  linvironment  and  Knerjiy,  (Working  Paper,  1998) 

-  il  !NI{T - Socio-economic  and  Spalial  Impacts  of  Transport  (Working  Paper,  1998). 

Jo 

and  would  benefit  the  society  about  90  MRCU  per  year.  A cordon 
toll  with the current  parking  subsidies  would  reduce C02  by 7% and 
benefit  the society  by 70 MliCU. 

A  decrease  in  public  transport  fares  by  25%  due  to  increases  in 
efficiency  following  deregulation  would  bring  about  only  modest 
decreases  in  C02,  viz. 2-6.4%.  This  is  due  to  the  fact  that  the  new 
passengers  come  mainly  from  the  slower  modes,  i.e.  cycling  and 
walking,  and  not  from  car  users. The  impact  on  the  overall  welfare 
of the society  is in some cases  positive (net  benefit  of 22 MBCli  for 
Brussels)  and  in  other  negative  (net  cost  of  3  MBCU  for  Helsinki 
region)  depending  on  the  initial  level  of  public  transport  utilisation 
and subsidisation. 

Increases m fuel taxes from  reducing the existing fixed vehicle taxes 
in  a  fiscally  neutral  way  would  reduce  C02  emissions  between  0-
4.8%. 

Speed  decreases  on  motorways  by  20  km/h  would  only  have  a 
limited  impact  on  C02  emissions  - reductions  would  range  between 
0.0-3%.  The  measure  would,  however,  have  a  small  positive  net 
impact on the welfare of the society. 

31 

Annex  6 

Table  4:  relative  capital  costs  of  alternative  vehicle 
technologies 

Transport 
technology 

gasoline car 

dicsel car 

LPG car 

methanol  car 

ethanol car 

CNG car 

electric 
battery 
module car 

electric 
car 

city 

hydrogen 
combustion 
car 

fuel 
hydrogen 

cell 

1990 

1995 

2010 

100 

114 

105 

104 

104 

113 

100 

114 

105 

104 

104 

113 

195 

100 

114 

105 

104 

104 

113 

181 

117 

128 

748 

2541 

Source: 
Vehicle  Technologies 
Leuvcn, IFP, NTUA) 

Potential  from  changes  in  Fuel  and  New 
-  K.U. 

for  Cars 

(C.H.S. 

Important reductions expected by 2030 

n 

Annex  7 

5:  Operational 

Table 
(estimates) 

and  maintenance 

costs 

1995 (FCU 90/y) 

I  2010 (\ICV 90/y) 

Transport 
technology 

gasoline car 

diescl car 

LPGcar 

methanol  car 

ethanol car 

CNG car 

electric car 

456 

"470 

"481 

473 

"473 

~676 

700 

fuel  cell  hydrogen  980 
car 

hydrogen 
combustion  car 

676 

456 

"470 

"481 

473 

"473 

"676 

"420 

4201 

676 

Source:  Potential  from  Changes 
for  Cars 
Vehicle Technologies 
Lcuven,  IFP,  NTUA) 

in  Fuel  and  New 
-  K.U. 
(C.E.S. 

Significant  decrease expected by 2030 

33 

ISSN 0254-1475 

COM(98) 204  final 

DOCUMENTS 

EN 

07  12  14  15 

Catalogue  number  : CB-CO-98-236-BN-C 

ISBN 92-78-33141-4 

Office  for Official  Publications of the European Communities 

L-2985 Luxembourg 

^