Demographic report 1997
Date: 1997-07-09
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: demographic analysis, population ageing, population growth, report, working population

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels,  09.07.1997 
COM(97)361  final 

Demographic  Report  1997 

(presented  by the  Commission) 

Demographic  Report  1997 

Part  1  - Impact of demographic change on the labour market 

1 

Part 2 - The significance of the regional dimension 

Part 3 - Demographic trends in the applicant States 

12 

17 

/Q 

Note to the reader : 

All the statistics presented in this report were supplied by the 
Statistical Office  of the European Communities. 

lb 

Part  three  of  the  report  tries  to  identify  the  major 
demographic  trends  in  the  12  applicant  States2. 
This  analysis  will  aim  at  providing  a  better 
understanding  of  the  significance  of  demography 
for  this group of countries  which  are  experiencing 
deep-seated economic change. 

is 

the 

social 

subject 

Whether 
protection, 
employment,  or structural  policy, the  demographic 
variable  is  destined  to  be  an  essential  factor  in 
analysing  problems  and  developing  appropriate 
policy. The development of a medium  to long-term 
perspective in policy-making  is of vital  importance 
to the Union. 

The  Commission 
the  1997 
Demographic Report as the basis for  reflection  and 
reaction by policy makers throughout  the Union. 

therefore  presents 

Introduction 

Demography  assumes  increasing  significance  as 
slower  population  growth  and  ageing,  keeps 
tranforming  at  an  accelarating  rate  the  age-
pyramid.  The  conclusion  of  the  last  report1  was 
that, given present  trends,  the next 30 years could 
see  the  population  aged  over  60  grow  by  50%, 
while at the same time the number of young people 
(0-19 years) and adults (20-59 years) would fall by 
11% and 6% respectively. 

The  effects  of  this  marked  transition  towards  a 
much older population are  set to be felt  through to 
the middle of the next century. 

The  first  effects  of  an  ageing  population  are 
already  being  felt  in  the  field  of  social  protection, 
particularly  on  retirement  pensions,  but  also  on 
health.  This  will  place  great  strain  on  the  future 
funding  of  social  protection  which  is  largely 
dependent  upon  the  contributions  of  the  working 
population.  The developing  trends  indicate  both  a 
fall  in  the  population  of  working  age  and  an 
increase  in  the  number  of  older  people.  As  their 
number  grow,  the  role of elderly  people  in  society 
is  also  going  to  become  increasingly  relevant. 
Demography  is  thus  already  becoming  a  crucial 
factor  which  must  be  taken  into  account  when 
modernising social protection. 

Demographic  change  will  also  impact  on  the 
characteristics  of  the  population  of  working  age 
who  makes  up  the  labour  force.  What  will  be  the 
demographic  changes  in  this  labour  force?  What 
effect  will  these  changes  have  on  the  labour 
market? And will this demographic change  require 
specific action? These are the questions which part 
I of this report try to explore. 

The  situation  at  the  EU  level  will  also  have 
in  socio 
consequences  for  regional  balances 
economic terms. This will be the focus of attention 
in  part  two  of  this  report.  Will  demographic 
change  help  to  reduce  regional  differences  or, 
alternatively,  will  some  regions  be  faced  with 
growing  imbalances?  Locally,  how  will  it  be 
possible  to bring  the  labour  market  into  line  with 
the pools of available  labour?  Will  the  framework 
for action vary from one region to another? 

1 See « The demographic situation  in the 
European Union -1995 », European  Commission, 
Directorate General V 

'  Malta has been included although, for the time 
being, this country has frozen  its membership 
application. 

/ 

PAU 1  1 
impact  of demographic change on 
the labour  market 

Demographic  change  and  the  labour  market  arc 
linked  in  many  respects,  three  of  which  deserve 
particular  attention: 

the 

I  Demographic  change  modifies 

the  internai 
characteristics  of 
labour  market.  By 
changing the structure and the size of  the pools 
of  available  labour,  demography  affects  the 
basic conditions under which the labour  market 
operates; 

2.  Demographic change also influences  the labour 
market  by  putting  pressures  on  systems  of 
social  protection. 
the 
number  of  active  and  non-active  people  not 
only  affect  the  funding  and  organisation  of 
social protection, but also the functioning  of the 
labour market itself; 

Imbalances  between 

3.  It  is  not  just  the  population's  age  and  gender 
structure  which  affects  the  active  population, 
but  also  the  demography  of  families  and 
households.  The propensity  to  form  or  dissolve 
couples,  have  children,  child  care  conditions 
and the  living  arrangements  for  young  and  the 
elderly, are all factors  which  can have an  effect 
on whether  or  not  people  take  up  employment. 
On the other  hand,  the opportunities  offered  by 
the 
lifecycle 
decisions of individuals and households 

labour  market 

influence 

the 

The  Commission  highlighted  these  three  types  of 
relationship  in  its  last  report  on  the  demographic 
situation,  giving  an  initial  quantitative  estimate  of 
the  effects  of  an  ageing  population  on  social 
protection.  However, 
impact  of 
demographic  change  on  the  labour  market  is 
equally important. This chapter will seek to outline 
what  are  likely  to  be  the  principal  effects  of 
demographic change in this area. 

the  possible 

It  must  also  be  remembered  that  these  effects  are 
no  more  than  a  backdrop  against  which  other 
factors inevitably come into play, such as economic 
growth  and  productivity.  Nevertheless,  within  the 
limits  of  our  approach,  the  analyses  pursued  here 
aim and providind an understanding of  the  impact 
and  extent  of  demographic  change  and  of  the 
margins 
the  various 
population groups. 

for  manoeuvre  within 

rv*:?w for shoctttag th*> 20-44 age group 

wfee» drôxiiag the $e£*ê&*iiam ©f wortung a>?? 

In  the  1995  report,  the  group  of  people  aged 
between  20  and  $9  years  were  taken  m 
constituting  the  "papulation  of  working  age". 
Since then,  an assessment  has been  made n  t® 
how the  balance  between active  and  non-active 
people  might  shift  if the present  trend  toward® 
longer  periods  of  study  and  earlier  retirement 
were maintained. That «wide it possible to assess 
the ens* of the status qua.  However,  it should be 
noted  that  aetftfty  pattern;»  tend  to  mmt 
progressively  away from the  stereotype  "yocog-
eider-
education, 
retirement".  This emerging  trend  renders  very 
difficult  the choice of the age-groups. 

adult-employment, 

For  the  purposes  of  the  present  analysis  of 
future scenarios, people aged between  20 and 64: 
years  were 
the  most 
selected  as  being 
Illustrative*  First  &t all,  the  present  trend  of 
entering the labour market after  a longer period 
of  study  is  likely  to  continue  -  especially 
considering  that  changes 
in  the  nature  of 
economic  activity  will  mean  that  the  future 
increasingly 
labour  market  will  require  an 
skilled  and  qualified  workforce.  The  second 
point  is  that  the  active  population  is  already 
feeling the weight of  retirement  pensions  which 
they  are r e a r ed  to fund  These  trends caO for 
policies  aiming  at  expanding  current  activity 
levels. 

The choice of this age group offers  an  additional 
advantage in terms of  demographic  projections. 
As the study  is  concerned  with  the  years  1995-
2015,  people reaching the age of 20  in 2015 have 
already  been  bom.  The  projections 
are 
therefore  unaffected  by  hypotheses  regarding 
future  fertility  among the  20*^4  age  group,  an 
element  of  uncertainty  which  would  have 
reduced the reliability of the forecasts. 

cl 

Figure 1 

Changes in the total population  and  in the 
population  of working age (20-64 years). 

base index of  100 in  1995 for three demographic 
scenarios 

Figure  1  compares  the  rate  of  change  for  the 
Union's  total  population  to  the  rate  of  change 
within the 20-64 age group, with  reference  to three 
scenarios of demographic change3. 

Three consecutive periods can be identified : 

•  over  the  past  20  years,  the  population  of 
working  age  has  increased  at  a  faster  rate  than 
the total  population; 

•  over  the  next  15  years,  the  population  of 
working  age  will  stabilise  at  a  relatively 
constant  level,  while  the  total  population  will 
still continue to grow; 

•  after  approximately  15 years,  the  population  of 
working  age  will  start  to  fall  significantly, 
while  the  total  population  will  slow  down  with 
a diminishing pace. 

In brief  : 

Following  a  previous  period  of  growth 
the 
population  of  working  age  stabilised  m  around 
1995; in around  15 years time it will start to fall. 

iffi::.:^i:;p©p^ 

; working:: ap^ÉMïIçls r^&Éce; 

the-  ; demographic;';  traaisi;;;;^#ii|tt;x:::ilftéï:::LÏ©iâ 
pcsfulaison : will ! tm4  • 'M :&ir^se^|;vfeprieîSx 'M 
social protection: on^the  w o r k^ 

-  -  -  Population of working aga 

Source : Eurostat, observations until 1995, projections 
after that date. 

Annex  A presents five scenarios in total. 
' 
The three scenarios  in question  (Young, Baseline 
and Old) plus two more scenarios (High and Low) 

Within the limits of the demographic approach, the 
measurement of dependency  illustrated  in figure 2 
can give a good idea of the tension in the sphere of 
social protection arising from  demographic trends, 
and its impact on the labour market: 

Total dependency (TB) « 

|0*l9 years + 65 years and +J + (20*64 yearsg 

Dependency of elderly people  (D£}~ 
[65 years and *] * [20-64 years} 
dependency of young people (BY) » 
10-19 yearsj •  [20-64 years! 

•  Total  dependency  has  fallen  over  the  past  20 
two  raisons:  First,  baby-boom 
years  for 
generations joined the active population, second 
fertility rates have fallen after  1975; 

T D ~ M + D¥ 

In brief : 

•  Total  dependency  will  start  to  increase again, 
initially because of smaller  inflows  of working 
age population and later, after  2010, because of 
the  retirement  of  the  baby  boom  generations. 
Elderly  people  growth  will  be  the  principal* 
source of social protection expenditure increase; 

•  Even if  there is a reversal of fertility  trends, as 
envisaged by the low ageing scenario (scenario 
« c »),  this will  not  be sufficient  to prevent  in 
the  long  term,  the  relative  increase  in  the 
dependency  ratio  due  to  the  increase  in  the 
proportion of older people. 

The evolution of  dependency  ratios suggests an 
increase in social expenditure in favour of older 
people. 

The variation in  levels of dependency  and the 
deterioration  of  the  ratio  of  young  to  older 
peuple «re factors which, wift affect the costs and 
organisation of the social protection system* The 
size of  the impact wilt  also  largely  depend on 
Other factors  as  growth,  productivity  and job 
erej»tfo»**r 

Figure 2. EUR1S 
Measure of demographic dependency 

Total dependency rate (%) 

Ratio of young people to elderly people 

2,5 

1,5 

0,5 

scenarios : 

a 

b 

c 

|-

197S 

1995 

2015 

2015 

2015 

1975 

1995 

2015 

2015 

2015 

Scenarios  a = continuation of present trend, b = maximum ageing, c = minimum ageing 
Source: l-urostat.  demographic projections 1996 
„  «/-noozn 
••  Cf.  "Some economic implications of demographic trends up to 2020", European Economy, 36 (1994) 

A closer  analysis allows  us to estimate  the  impact 
of  changes  to  the  age-pyramid  on  the  active 
population.  How  have  changes  in  the  size  of  each 
age  group  influenced  the  growth  of  the  active 
population  in the past and  how will  they  influence 
it in the future? The results are set out in figure 3. 

On  the  basis  of  certain  hypotheses,  this  analysis 
seeks to determine  the factors  leading  to a  change 
in  the  size  of  the  working  population  for  each  of 
the  three  decades  (see  model  in  Annex  B  and 
explanation on data sources). 

Hii 

This change can be broken down into two factors : 

• 

• 

the  "demography"  factor,  namely  the  variation 
in  the  population's  age/sex  structure  and  size 
alone (thus keeping the activity rates constant); 
the  "behaviour"  factor,  namely  the  fact  that 
levels of activity per age and sex change in time 
(thus the difference  between  the  « real » active 
population  and  the one obtained  while keeping 
the activity rates constant). 

Figure 3 - EUR12 and EUR15 

Respective roles of the demographic factor and behavioural factor in producing changes in the size of the 
active population. 

10 

O 

-2 

1985-1995 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

Demographic effect 

•  Behavioural effect 

Sources : 

Eurostat, 1996 demographic projections, baseline scenario 
Eurostat. Ubour  Force Survey (EUR12 1985-1995.  EUR15 after 1995) 
Eurostat, projections of activity levels 

An  analysis  of  past  data  allows  for  the  following 
conclusions : 

and reducing the pace of ageing of the working age 
population. 

In brief  : 

Demographic  change  has  placed  additional 
pressure on the  labour  market  over the past 
10 years because of a  sharp  increase  in  the 
labour  supply.  Together  with  the  growth  in 
female  participation  the  result  was  an 
increase in the active population. 

Even  if  participation  in  the  labour  market 
increases,  we  will  soon  see  a  reduction  in 
tensions  in  the  labour  market  due  to  the 
demographic fall; 

Changes  in  the  levels  of  participation  will 
play  a  greater  role  in  the  future  growth  of 
the labour force. 

Economic  performance,  productivity  growth 
and future  migratory  trends will  also  play  a 
potentially important role. 

future  trends  of  active  population  become  a 
The 
unemployment  and 

require  a  framework  which 
stimulates  *o4  expands  the  participation  of 
potential labour Supply (mainly women  and the 
working  age population  ever  55) coupled  with 
ail effort to stimulate employment-rich growth. 

• 

in  the  Europe  of  Twelve4,  9.4  million  people 
joined  the  active  population  between  1985 and 
1995,  a  7%  growth  rate.  During  this  same 
period,  demographic  change  would  have 
generated  an  increase  of  9.6  million  if  it  had 
been  the  sole  factor,  thus  200,000  more  than 
actually  recorded.  This  latter  figure  indicates 
the  extent  of  the  participation  decrease  in  the 
labour market. 

•  also  between  1985  and  1995,  the  number  of 
jobs  rose by just  8.5  million.  As the  number of 
active  adults  increased  more  than  the jobs,  the 
difference  represents  the  absolute  increase  in 
unemployment, 
900,000  more 
unemployed in  1995 than in 19855. 

that 

is 

The  same  approach  has  been  adopted  for  the 
development of future  scenarios. 

the 

from 

Apart 
unemployment,  the  following 
population arc likely: 

impact  on  employment 

-
trends  in  active 

•  we  can  expect  to  see  the  active  population 
increase by about 6.9  million by the year 2005, 
representing a lower rate of growth than during 
the preceding period. Demographic change will 
contribute  less  to  this  increase,  50% of  which 
will  be  due  to  increased  participation  in  the 
labour market; 

•  over  the  following  10 years  -  2005  to  2015  -
the  active  population  could  fall  by  as  much  as 
2.15  million.  An  expected  demographic  fall  of 
3.4  million  people  will  be  partly  offset  by  an 
extra  1.25  million  people  participating  in  the 
labour market. 

Migratory  flows  could  play  a  significant  role  in 
trends  of  working  age 
shaping 
the 
population6. 
they  have 
contributed  to  some  extent  to  increasing  the  size 

the  past  decade 

future 
In 

Data on the active population of  EUR 15 are 
only available from 1995 
Between  1985 and  1995, peak years for 
unemployment, the total number of unemployed 
people grew from around  15 million to 16,8 
million whereby about 900 000 are to be 
attributed to the new Landers which in this 
simulation are not taken into account. 
See Eurostat scenarios in Annexe A. 

In  the above,  trends  in the population  of working 
age  and  the  active  population  were  seen  to be 
closely linked. But what is the situation within  this 
population? 

In brief : 

Figure 4 shows that  it is going to experience some 
major changes in age structure : 

•  A distinctive  feature  of the past  20 years has 
been the entry of all the baby-boom  generations 
to  the  population  of  working  age.  This 
produced  a  major  increase  in  all  age  groups, 
especially the intermediate 30-49 age group; 

• 

In contrast  to  this,  the  next  20 years  will see 
considerable  imbalances  in  the contribution of 
the various age groups. The 20-29 age group, a 
group  which  replenishes  the  population  Of 
working  age,  will  fall  by  11  million,  the 
intermediate  group  will  remain  at  its  present 
size,  and  the  oldest  group  (50-64  years)  will 
increase by  16.5 million, which is over 25%. 

Within  the  population  of  working  age,  the 
distinctive  feature of the next 20 years will be a 
very  unequal  growth between  the different  age 
groups,  breaking  the  balance  of  the  past  20 
years. 

iTiTiTnTrmjTrrnTiTiTTiTiTirf 

The  increased  numbers  of  older  workers  will 
call for a new approach to all matters relating to 
the links, between age, labour market and work 
organisation. Working conditions,  productivity 
and  the  lifelong  learning  wiB  all  be  crucial 

Figure 4 -  EUR15 
Increase  in certain  age groups  between  1975-1995  and  1995-2015 

Source: Eurostat, observations until 1995,  projections after that date. Baseline scenario 

A  further  analysis 
indicators highlight two rupture points. 

is  needed  as 

the  ageing 

1995,  first  rupture point 

Tr-c  size  of  the  expected  fall  in  the  number  of 
people  aged  between  20  and  29  coupled  with  the 
increase  in  those  aged  between  50  and  64  will 
result  in a  marked  ageing  of  the available  pool of 
labour. 

The  change  in  the  average  age  of  the  population 
aged  between  20 and  64, as  illustrated  in figure 5, 
is an initial  indication of this changing  trend. 

•  This  average  age  scarcely  changed  during  the 
years  1975-1995, when  it remained just over 40 
years; 

Since  1995  it  has  been  a  marked  tendency  for 
the average age to increase,  as a comparison  of 
the curves'  gradient  for  the  two  periods  clearly 
illustrates; 

After  having  remained  stable  for  the  past  20 
years, the average age will  increase by 2.5 vears 
the  2015,  a  considerable 
on  average  by 
increase. 

In  brief 

Starting  in  1995,  and  continuing  beyond  2015, 
the  average  age  of  the  working  age  population 
will show a considerable and  constant  increase. 

Figure 5. EUR15 

Change in the average age of Che population  of working age (20-64  years) 

w 

^ 

^w» 

*f« 

q™ 

<g™ 

m~ 

Y" 

V™ 

HT* 

V* 

Eurostat,  observations  until  1995,  projections  after  thai  dale.  Baseline 

scenario 

The  intermediate  group  (30-54  years)  will 
first  increase,  then stabilise  and  later  begin 
to  fall  due  to  the  knock-on  effect  of  these 
changes. 

Dew age-pyramid m the 
mean  ti&k  active 
face-«or  efeaHenges 

iMiatimkte Die  value  of 

faced with a 
labour  force.  This 
emptoyment  policies 
in their  effort to 
human  resources  ; 

The relative share of the youngest and oldest 
groups  of  workers  as  pant  of  the  total 
population  of  working  age  will  change,  as 
will  the  relative  share  within  the  30-54  age 
group  which  will  consequently  face  similar 

2010,  second rupture point 

The  second  point  relates  to  the  relative  share  of 
those expected  to join  the active population  for  the 
first  time,  i.e.  the  20-29  age  group,  compared  to 
those who are close to leaving it,  i.e. the 55-64 age 
group. Figure 6 shows that: 
•  The  share  of  the  20-29  age  group  has  been 
constantly  falling  since  the  early  1990s,  while 
around  the  year  2000  the  share  of  the  oldest 
group will start to rise; 
In  2010  the  two  groups  will  be  level  pegging» 
each representing one fifth of the population of 
working age; 

• 

•  After  this  date,  the  oldest  group  in  the  active 
population  will  account  for  a  progressively 
larger  share  of  the  active  population  than  the 
20-29  age  group.  At  the  same  time,  the 
population of working age as a whole will  start 
to fall. 

In brief 

From the year 2010 onwards, older  workers 
will  account  for  a  greater  share  of  the 
population  of  working  age  than  younger 
workers  whose  share  will  progressively 
decrease. 

Figure 6 - EUR15 
Respective shares of the  20-29 and 55-64 age groups in the working age population (20-64 years) 

28% 

27% 

26% 

25% 

24% 

23% 

22% 

21% 

20% 

19% 

18% 

17% 

16% 

shareof 20^29^ «9? groupjS. 

- 

<è 
Ùf 

*•** 

..-..„.* 

...  . 

-*•'• 

: . - . . - . . . . - - » . „ . , ,, 

...-..*.... T. .r 

share of 55-64 age group 

— , — , — , — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i — i —i 

m 

ao  ao 

oo 
O)  CD 

ao 
O) 

o 
CD 
CD 

i 
CO 
CD 
CD 

i — i — i — i — r - i —i 
CD 
CD 

CO 
CD 
CD 

i 
i 
CM 
O 
O 
CM 

r —i 

i 

l 
in 
O o 
CM 

i 

i  '  I 

i 
i 
i 
i 
00 
T- 
5T 
°  *"  rr 
o  o  o 
CM 
CN 
CM 

Source : Eurostat. observations until 1995. projections after that date. Baseline scenario 

Demogmpfak impact m  &* renewal of the popuiatitm »l w-afléag  ^ 

In  the  past,  the  renewal  of  the  population  of 
working age,  i.e.  the  ability  to  replace  generations 
leaving  the  labour  market  by  those  coming  in  to 
join it, has served to: 

supply the highest growth sectors; 

• 
•  contribute to the system's productivity  by virtue 
>f  the  fact  that  young  people  have  lower 
cost/productivity ratio ; 

•  make a contribution of new skills and  flexibility 

in all sectors. 

It is interesting  to illustrate this  renewal  by  means 
of two additional  indicators. The first estimates the 
balance  between  incoming  and  outgoing  flows 
(figure  7-a).  This  gives  us  a  good  idea  of  the 
change  in  the  size  of  the  population  of  working 
indicator 
age.  The  second,  more  qualitative, 
examines  the  ratio  between  numbers  joining  and 
leaving  the  labour  market 
is 
essentially a replacement  indicator. 

(figure  7-b);  this 

• 

• 

In terms of balances,  the decrease which began 
in  1990  will  result  in  more  departures  than 
entries by around 2009. 
In terms of ratios, the replacement  rate will  fall 
by  35% over  20 years:  in  1995 there were  140 
entries for  100 departures; by 2015 there will be 

90  entries  for  100  departures,  and  thus  a  net 
deficit. 

la brief: 

Progressively,  there  will  be  less  scope  to 
adjust  the  labour  market  by  means  of  the 
flows of entries and departures ; 
Demographic  change  will  produce  negative 
renewal  balances  for  the  population  of 
working  age.  The  possibilities  of  skill 
renewal  due  solely  to  the  entry  of  young 
people will be limited. 

Measures  to  activate  the  available  reserves  in 
the  labour supply  wâf have  te  be  accompanied 
by measures to ensure better overall training of 
the  labour  force  motivation  and  safety»  white 

7-a : Differences  between incoming and outgoing 
flows for the population of working age 

7-b : Numbers joining the population of working 

age for every  100 leaving 

Figure 7 - EUR15 

2.000.000 

1.500.000 

1.000.000 

500.000 + 

-500.000 

160 

2  140 

t  120 
4> •o 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

1975 

1995 

2015 

Source : Eurostat. observations until  1995,  projections after that date. Baseline scenario. 

lie^og^a^ke^eaj>njd dfflfere%ee laa^w 

Is  it  possible  to  determine  in  more  detail  how 
demographic  change  is  going  to  effect  the  active 
population?  Some  interesting  findings  are obtained 
by  distinguishing  by  sex  and  age  group,  between 
the effects  of demographic  change and  behavioural 
change on the size of the active population. 

In  terms  of behaviour,  and  still  on  the basis of 
the  hypotheses  for  changes 
the  active 
population,  female  participation  will  continue 
to  increase,  even  among  younger  generations. 
By contrast,  between  2005 and 2010  there will 
be reduced male participation  in all age groups. 

to 

differences 

and 
between 
The 
especially  between  the  sexes,  are  clearly  marked: 

generations, 

In brief : 

•  The  increase  in  the  total  size  of  the  active 
population  recorded  between  1985 and  1995  is 
unequally  distributed  between  the  sexes,  while 
the  demographic  contribution,  which  is  similar 
between  the  sexes,  is  not  the  same  for  all  age 
groups; 

•  Between  1985  and  1995  entry  to  the  labour 
market  fell  by  200,000.  This  fall  is  principally 
attributed  to  the  decline  for  men,  and  young 
men  in  particular.  Employment  among  all 
young  people  aged  between  20  and  29, 
regardless  of  sex,  fell  during  this  period.  This 
the  pronounced 
could 
the  preceding 
demographic  contribution  of 
generations,  which  may  have  blocked  their 
access to the labour-market,  as well  as from  the 
long-term  trend  for  increased  participation  in 
the  younger 
training  of 
education 
generations; 

in  part  result  from 

and 

•  There has been a sharp  increase  in  employment 
among  women  over  30  during  this  period.  In 
the  intermediate  group  (30-49  years),  more 
than  50%  of 
increase  active  women 
recorded  between  1985  and  1995  is  due  to  the 
increased  participation  of women  in  the  labour 
market. 

the 

•  Among  older  women  workers,  participation 
behaviour  was  responsible  for  virtually  the 
activity; 
entire 

increase 

in 

•  The  demographic  contribution  among 

the 
youngest  workers  has  started  to  fall  and.  after 
2005.  it  will  only  be  the  oldest  workers  who 
will  bring  any  increase  due  to  demographic 
change. 

The  separation  between  the  behavioural 
effect  and  demographic  effect  reveals  the 
change  in  the  size  of  reserves  in  the  labour 
supply produced by demographic  effects; 
Among  young  people  in  particular,  it  will 
cease to be possible to offset  the demographic 
fall by increased participation; 
Apart 
the  potential  offered  by 
occupational  and  geographical  mobility, 
women  constitute  the  main  resource  for 
young 
employment 
women,  who  when  they  grow  older,  will 
bring 
and 
employment  rate. 

participation 

a  higher 

especially 

growth, 

from 

Related issues : 

Maintaining  alter  women's  eroployabtlity 
and  their  re-entry  into  work  after  some 
years of  home work, must  take  into  account 
tlte specific  characteristics  of  these groups 
and  will  require  appropriate  adjustment 
terms  of  work 
measures,  not  only 
in 
organisation,,  but  also 
social 
to 
environment. 
The growing importance  of  work for  women 
means  that,  snore  than  ever  before,  the 
question  of 
is  a 
fundamental  distension  of  economic  and 
social  chatty 
All types of  mobility,  especially  occupational 
mobility, will play  a greater  role in the years 
to come» 

eqn?I  opportunities 

the 

10 

Figure  8 - EL'R  M  and EUR15 
Respective  rotes  of the demographic  facter  End the behavioural factot  in  producing 
changes  in the size of the active  population, per age group  and gender, for three  periods. 

Males. ZQ-Z$  years 

Females 20-28 years 

Œ ' S S i l, 

Act  pop.: 
Dem eff. 

-3  950  000 
-s eco  ooo 

[Act.  pop.: 
! Dem eff 
iUeh  eff 

-3 000 000 
-  360 000 
-2  640 000 

o 

-2 

-4 

-6t 

-8 

-10 

-12 

1985-1995 
1  Demographic effect 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

Behavioural effect 

1985-1995 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

Females  30-49  years  I 

1985-1995 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

1985-1995 

19S5-2005 

2005-2015 

Males  50-64  years 

Females  50-64  years  I 

10 

Act  pop 
+2  900  000 
Dem  eff  +3 100 000 
Beh  eff 

- 200 000 

j Act  pop: 
•Dem. eff 
i Beh  eff 

-  2  200 000 
1 900  000 
300 000 

Act pop:  +1  800 000 
Dem.  eff  +  1  700 000 
Beh.  eff.  +  100 000 

Act pop 
Dem  eff 
iHeh  eff 

) 1 3 00  000 
+100 000 
•  1  200 000 

1985-1995 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

1985-1995 

1995-2005 

2005-2015 

(0  bh 

;  ta^dÉÉiial:  dfcfi&ei&iiÉft;* 

; 

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. fc$.i tiœ ; feirtiî ;.of a. e i i l i; sa» ;sûiBetlœèi::ie^©r*«iÈî, i W0mà^ÊÊÊ^ 

W  i i & t à p i i g & g. Ira»: £• 

J

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v ;: ; ; ; *  \  • 

abiÇfy ;to;. «e^vate : | f i « f l r;| f l | : .: ^^famfe^ 

Mm 

i j p r a: WmÊ^MÊ^0Me' 

:«* i * e: otter  /ton* 

(ONCLISION 

The  analysis  of  changes  in  the  population  of 
working  age  reveals  the  extent  to  which  future 
economic 
on 
quantitative  and  qualitative  changes  in  the  labour 
force. 

growth  will 

dependent 

be 

in  reducing 

imbalances  between 

The  stabilisation  and  then  fall  in  the  size  of  the 
population of working age could prove a  favourable 
labour 
factor 
supply and labour demand.  However,  it will also be 
necessary  to  deal  with  a  considerable  increase  in 
the  pressure  of  ageing  on  social  protection, 
for  pay-as-you-go  pension  systems. 
especially 
Keeping  older  workers  in  employment  for  longer 
could  be,  in  certain  sectors,  a  key  element  for  at 
least partially countering this problem. 

However, keeping older workers in employment  for 
more years will  add  to a  second  concern  linked  to 
the  demography  of  the  labour  force:  its  internal 
ageing.  Thus,  adaptability 
labour  demand 
changes  will  have  to  be  obtained  more  from 
resources  already  in  the  labour  force  rather  than 

to 

from  new cohorts joining the labûi,-: market.  Active 
measures  such  as 
long 
learning,  measures  to  ensure  employability  will be 
required  in  order  to  adapt  skills  and  ensure 
economic competitiveness. 

rc-qualification.  Life 

is  becoming  a 
Stronger  economic  growth 
fundamental  factor  in  supporting  social  protection. 
provided  this growth  translates  into  an  increase  in 
jobs  and  increased  recourse  to  existing  pools  of 
labour.  For  women  in  particular,  this  recourse  is 
innovative 
subject  to  certain  constraints.  An 
approach  will  be  necessary,  including  measures  to 
promote  access  to  the  traditional  employment 
market  (reconciliation  of work and  family  life),  the 
hitherto  exclusively  voluntary 
absorption  of 
activities  by  the  market  economy  (community 
actions,  responsibility  for  family  care  through  tax 
incentives, 
flexible  work 
organisation.  All  types  of  mobility  will  play  a 
greater role during the years to come. 

and  more 

etc.), 

See. among others.  « The new role of  women - Family formation  in Modern Societies » edited by Hans-
Peter Blossfeld,  Social inequality series. Westview Press.  1994 or « Families, travail et politiques  familiales 
en Europe ». L  Hantrais and M-T. Lctablier, Cahier du Centre d'Etudes de l'Emploi. PUF,  1996 

11 

The significance  of  the  regional 
dimension 

that 

labour  market.  However, 

there  are 
The  previous  chapter  showed 
important  links  between  demographic  change  and 
the 
the  aggregate 
approach  often  fails  to  provide  the  most  effective 
means  of  examining  these  links.  Among  other 
things,  it  is  not  suitable  for  understanding  the 
widely differing  trends at regional level. 

The  strongly  diverging  situations  found  among 
regions  suggest  that  the  impact  of  demographic 
change  could  be  open  to  different  interpretations 
than that provided by the aggregate approach. 

This 
is  confirmed  by 
presented in this section. 

the 

regional  analysis 

Geographical areas 

For  reasons  which  relate  primarily  to  the 
availability  of  statistical  data,  the  geographical 
breakdown  used  in  this  chapter  is  NUTS  2, 
except for the United Kingdom where NUTS I is 
used»  Ireland,  Denmark,  Austria,  Sweden  and 
Finland are considered at national level. 

to 

take 

into  account 

These  breakdowns  imply  certain  limitations  in 
the  present  analysis.  They  do  not  make  it 
possible 
true 
mechanisms at work in eertain regions delimited 
by  such  factors  as 
labour  pools  or 
particular areas of activity* This is why we have 
opted  for  a  generic  rather 
than  specific 
interprétation of tht  results of our analyses. 

local 

the 

is 

aspects 

the  uneven 

The  Union's  regional  diversity  can  \y:  iiUt-,! y fed 
with  reference  to  many  criteria.  Among  ihc  most 
population 
visible 
distribution,  with  a  large  share  of  the  population 
concentrated  in  a  comparatively  small  part  of  the 
territory.  Possible population  change,  as  illustrated 
on  Map  1,  is  also  of  particular  interest.  Among 
other  things,  it  helps  to  highlight  differences  in 
future  demographic patterns between regions. 

This  is  particularly  interesting  because,  as  shown 
in chapter  one, a stage characterised  by a  constant 
and  balanced  demographic 
the 
population  of  working  age  is  now  giving  way  to 
one  of  "demographic  neutrality",  soon 
to  be 
followed by one of negative growth. 

increase 

in 

Map  1  shows  the  growth  index  for  each  region 
compared to its population  in  1995. On the basis of 
their  stage of demographic  growth,  regions  can  be 
grouped under three headings: 

•  Regions  which  have  already 

the 
negative  growth  stage,  such  as  the  former  East 
Germany,  Saarland  and  part  of  Westphalia, 
northern  Italy,  Asturias  and  Aragon  in  Spain, 
and Lorraine in France; 

reached 

•  The vast majority  of the regions are likely  to go 
towards  a  period  of  demographic  neutrality 
between  1995 and 2015; 

•  Finally, sustained growth is found  in about one-
fifth  of  the  regions,  located  in  a  greater  urban 
districts  and  in  the  south  of  Spain,  France. 
Italy,  Germany,  the  United  Kingdom.  Belgium 
and Greece. 

In brief ; 

Most of the Union countries  show  an  uneven 
regional  pattern  of 
future  demographic 
growth; 
The  same  country  can  present  a  variety  of 
situations 
demographic 
dynamism; 
Regions  with  similar  characteristics  tend  to 
form a cluster with neighbouring regions. 

terms 

in 

of 

12 

Population growth between 1995 and 2015 

Map 1 

EUR-15 

NUTS 2 (VK  : NUTS 0) 

( AU. Fï , SE : NUTS 0) 

Base  100 ~ 1995 

• <97"5 

$U  97.5 to 102.5 

102.5 to  110 

> 110 

Eurostat, Demographic projections, 1996 - Medium scenario 

IX.  b; 

The  effect  of  polarisation  in  terms  of  the 
population growth of regions is a new dimension 
which  could 
influence  national  and  even 
Community economic, social and  environmental 
trends. 

Population ageing 

Although  there is a  marked  difference  between  the 
regions in terms of  the stage of population  growth 
they  have  reached,  ageing 
is  a  phenomenon 
common to all of them.  Since  1995, the proportion 
of  people  aged  over  65  has  been  increasing  in  all 
areas.  The  results  of  this  growth  of  the  older 
population arc presented on Maps 2a and 2b which 
illustrate  the  proportion  of  people  aged  over  65 as 
part of the total population 

By 2015 the following developments are likely. 

•  As expected,  the  rate  of  ageing  and,  above  all. 
the current  population  structures  vary  from  one 
region to another, 

•  The  proportion  of  elderly  people  will  be 
particularly  high  in  northern  and  central  Italy 
where  they  will  account  for  a  quarter  of  the 
population; 

•  To  a  lesser  degree,  there  will  also  be  a 
preponderance  of  elderly  people  in  northern 
Spain  and. 
in  a  more  dispersed  way,  in 
northern  and  eastern  Germany,  Greece  and 
some central regions of France; 

•  The  regions  which  will  still  have  a  relatively 
younger  population  will  be  more  limited  in 
number  and  more  localised.  The  areas  in 
question  are  southern  Spain  and  central 
Portugal,  Ireland,  Apulia  and  Campania  in 
southern  Italy,  northern  France  and  Flevoland. 
The East Midlands  in the United  Kingdom  and 
Alsace are more isolated pockets. 

In brief : 

result 

Although  apparent  everywhere,  population 
ageing  will  occur  at  varying  rates  and 
degrees,  affecting  populations  with  very 
different  initial  age  structures.  The  result  in 
20  years  time  will  be  a  greater  diversity  of 
age structure in the regions. 
Ageing  does  not  necessarily 
in  a 
population  decrease.  In  2015  significant 
population  increases  will  be  coupled  with  a 
quite old population structure. 
The  combination  of  a  considerable  fall  in 
population  and  a  much  older  population,  as 
found in northern Italy and Spain, and  irs the 
former  East  Germany,  suggests  significant 
demographic decline. 
in  chapter  1  the  future 
As  mentioned 
prospects  are  also  potentially  influenced  by! 
economic  performance  and  migratory  flows j 
; 
at regional level. 

Related issues ; 

•  An ageing population is often  associated  with 
a  fall  in  the  proportion  of  young  people. 
Consequently,  trends  in  dependency  rates 
are likely to result in even  wider  differences 
between regions. This divergence  determines 
a new  regional  reality concerning the labour 
market, housing, health and care needs. 

*  The  polarisation  of  dependence  may  result 
in increased costs and greater  difficulties  for 
the development of certain regions. This may 
befell  not only in economic terms but also in 
ecological terms» especially if there is  further 
growth 
rural 
urbanisation 
depopulation. This may have implications for 
structural  policies at  European level, as well 
m  for efforts  to promote  an  improvement in 
the territorial  balances across the  Union as a 
whole. 

and 

of 

Proportion  of people aged 65 years and over as part of total population  in 1995 

Map 2 a 

S/ 

EUR-15 

NUTS2  (UK:  NUTS 1) 

( AU, FI et SE : NUTS •) 

1995 

| 

|  <16% 

16 to 18% 

18 to 20% 

> 20% 

Eurostat,  Demographic  projections,  1996 - Medium  scenario 

/3  bh 

Proportion  of people aged 65 years and over as part of total population  in 2015 

Map 2 b 

EUR-15 

NUTS 2  (UK  : NUTS 1) 

(Ar\FIrtSE:NUTSO) 

Kurostat, Demographic projections,  1996 - Medium  scenario 

' 

tSggfi* 

/.'•?  &V 

11er^)sJ^îk^^i)0M^oiîhe««<lvé 

In brief  : 

There  is  a  ten-year  difference  between  the 
regions  in  terras  of  the  reduction  of  the 
potential  labour  supply 

Several  groups  of  regions  have  already 
experienced  a  decrease  in  the  demographic 
contribution  to  the  active  population.  This 
increases  the  risk  of  a  laboirr  shortage  in 
certain  areas. 

i i l l j j i i ^^ 

| | | iM 
I J l i l i l^ 
"^^^I^^^^^^^MÊ^. 
•;: | | $ ! i | i ^^ 

•• l ie 

-use ' of 
, raisfflg: 
• |«W80ti«g: 
: of  all; 

$$|ii|;l^^ 

the: laboitr 

Irswiii^ 
: | | t i i j ^ i i^ 

I iw|t^sS::::W'ïthe'•.::regtoptf 

• 

It  has  been  seen  that  older  population  will  grow 
substantially  in  most  European  regions  over  the 
next  decades. This becomes  a  major  concern  since 
the  population  which  must  bear  this  extra  cost  is 
simultaneously  shrinking.  Map  3 gives, at  regional 
level,  the  year  when  the  active  population  is 
cxspccted to  start  to  fall  for  demographic  reasons. 
In  other  words,  it  shows  the  dates  when  the  net 
demographic  contribution  to  the  active  population 
will  cease.  The  methodological  basis  used  is  the 
same  as  for  the  global  analysis  in  part  one  (see 
Annex B). 

•  Several geographical  areas, including the whole 
of  southern  Germany.,  France,  Italy  and  the 
United Kingdom,  will  find  that  over  the  next 2 
decades  natural  demographic  change  will 
depress the numbers in the labour force. 

«  Three  major  geographically  compact  areas will 
find  themselves  in exactly the opposite situation 
with  a  substantial  reduction  of  the  potential 
labour  supply  by  the  end  of  the  century.  The 
regions  in question  are  the whole  of Italy  lying 
north  of  Molise,  all  areas  of  northern  Spain 
lying  between  Catalonia  and  Galicia,  the  far 
north  of  Germany,  North-Rhine  Westphalia, 
Saarland. Lorraine and  Flanders. 

•  The analysis of the  year  in which  a decrease of 
the active population,  for  demographic  reasons, 
will start  shows two separate  peaks. On  the one 
hand,  many  regions  will  experience  a  reversal 
of  trends  before  or  shortly  after  the  turn  of  the 
century  On  the  other  hand,  many  regions  will 
experience  this  after  2010.  Very  few  regions 
will  see trends  reverse  during  the  period  2000-
2010. 

14 

Year in which the active age population will start to fall 
due to demographic reasons 

Map 3 

,.v". 

EUR-15 

NUTS J ( U K:  NUTS  l) 

(AU,  PîetSE:  NUTS0) 

Year of occurrence 

between 1995 and 1999 

fM  between 2000 and 2004 

ËÉ  between 2005 and 2009 

between 2010 and 2014 

-f>j  not before 2015 

Ï4  V 

Hi  ->  ff  if 

,  «  *{ ft .if 

.. 

-* -.»- 

• 

l 

Eurostat, Demographic projections, 1996 - Medium scenario 

IH  b,\ S 

Another  aspect  of  ageing  has  implications  for  the 
labour  market,  namely  the  ageing  of  potential 
labour  forces.  In  this  section,  estimates  are  based 
on the population aged between  15 and 64 years, as 
these  are  the  only  age  groups  for  which  the 
statistics used are available. 

Map  4  shows  the  rate  of  ageing,  with  a  growth 
index  for  the  50-64  age  group  as  part  of  the  total 
population  of  working  age  ranging  from  105% to 
160% between  1995 and 2015: 

•  The  French,  Dutch,  Belgian  and  Irish  regions 
show  a  very  high  rate  of  ageing  within  the 
population of working age. 

In brief  : 

•  Combined  with  the  fall  in  the  demographic 
the 
contribution, 
amplifies  the 
population  of  working  age 
regional  significance  of this  phenomenon  for 
the labour  market 

the  general  ageing  of 

•  Germany  and  Italy  generally  show  a  more 
the  population  of 

pronounced  ageing  of 
working age. 

•  With  the  exception  of  certain  isolated  areas, 
this phenomenon  also affects,  with  a  different 
timing, all Europe's regions. 

• 

•  Regions  with  an  initially  elderly  population 
Italy)  show  a  more 

(Germany,  northern 
moderate ageing of the active population. 
Irrespective of the rate of ageing, the analysis of 
the  age  structure  of  active  persons  (share  of 
over  45s within  15-64 age group)  shows that  it 
is in the German  regions that  the population  of 
working  age  is  likely  to  be  the  oldest  in  the 
Union  in  20 years  time.  More  than  40% of  the 
over  45s  in  the  15-64  age  group  will  be  found 
in these regions. 

®  In  nearly  all  the  other  regions,  the  45-64  age 
group  will  represent  more  than  a  third  of  the 
population of working age. 

»  A lower  proportion  of  25% will  only  be  found 
in  four  isolated  areas  in  2015:  southern  Spain, 
Ireland,  Brittany,  Nord-Pas-de-Calais  and  half 
of the Benelux regions. 

Related issues : 

since 

sphere 

économie 

the 
la 
the 
the  ageing  of  the  working 
phenomenon  of 
felt  more  acutely  at 
âge  population  h 
regional 
level»  specific  actions  may  be 
needed, on the  basis of  regional  sector-based 
spceiaiisatfoa and labour marked  conditions 

fak  more general  s&usÂ  terms,  depending  on 
demographic  characteristics,, specific  policies 
may  be  needed:  to  take  care  of  regional 
demands in areas such as  housing and  health 
tare. 

15 

Growth in the population  aged between 50 and 64 years  between  1995 and  2015 

Map 4 

EUR-15 

NUTS2 

( AU, FÏ et SE : NUTS 0) 

Base 100 = 1895 

• 
<  107.5 
HP 107.5 to  125 
SU  125 to 142.5 

>  142.5 

Kurostat, Demographic  projections,  1996 - Medium  scenario 

-<7 

(-*^~A~3^ 

ft  b, j-

•A  oilcltisi(iii 

Three underlying trends relating to demographic effects  have been identified  : 

1.  The major difference  between the regional picture and national  situation; 
2.  The  polarisation  of  certain  demographic  and  economic  trends  with  implications  for  the  convergence 

process; 

3.  The potential  demographic  imbalances which could undermine  the functioning  of the  labour  market  due 

to a labour shortage. 

While there are various uncertainties  concerning any scenarios for future  demographic patterns  in the regions, 
it seems likely that the Union will face  new challenges in this regard  in the  next century.  National  and  Union 
policies will  have to ensure  that  labour  resources are optimally  used  in  regions  where there  are  scarce,  while 
seeking to ensure that new job opportunities are created where they are in surplus and where unemployment  is 
persistently  high.  While  some  geographical  mobility  of  labour  is  inevitable  in  a  market  economy,  the  main 
challenge  for  the  future  is  to  ensure  the  occupational  mobility  of  the  workforce  in  a  context  of  rapid 
technological change by providing necessary skills. 

16 

PART 3 
.Demographic trends  in the applicant  States 

Union  enlargement  is one of the  major  milestones 
on the road to European  integration.  Over the next 
years  at  least  some  of  the  12  present  applicant 
States,  could  find  their  place  within  the  European 
Union  (see  footnote  in  introduction  concerning 
Malta). 

It is therefore only fitting to complete our outline of 
the  principal  demographic  challenges  facing  the 
Union  with  a  brief  review  of  the  demographic 
future which awaits these countries. 

The aim here is not to undertake a detailed analysis 
but  rather  to  identify  points  on  which  these 
countries converge or diverge,  both with  respect to 
one  another  and  to  the  present  EU  countries,  in 
terms  of  the  challenges  which  their  respective 
demographic development could generate. 

What is the demographic picture of these countries 
in economic transition?  An  initial  indicator,  given 
in figure  9,  measures the  population  growth  index 
between  1995 and 2015.  An almost  general  lack of 
growth is observed: 
•  Whereas  between  1995  and  2015  the  Union  is 
going  to  see  a  population  increase  despite  the 
demographic  slowdown,  this  will  hold  true  for 
just  four  of  the  candidate  States  :  Poland  and 
the Slovak Republic, Cyprus and Malta. 
If  Cyprus  and  Malta,  whose  small  population 
renders  the  increase  incomparable  with  the 
others, are excluded  all  the  applicant  countries 
will  have  demographic  growth  inferior  to  that 
of the Union. 

• 

Figure 9 - Applicant States 
Total population growth between 1995 and 2015 
(base  100 in  1995) 

130 

in  120 
o 
<?  110 
in 
O) 
O) 
*- 

100 

% 
o 
O) 

X 
0) 
T3 

90 

80 

70 

•

•• 

60 

= 100 in 1995 

-

m 

c 
o 
Î 

c 
10 
o 
at 
1 
c 
à 
i. 
o 

c 
o 
1 

r-

e 
o 
1 — 

c 
0 
1 

c 
o 
1 

— 

N 
CM 

e 
| 
Î 
n 

| 
1 
o" 

o 
1 

| 
1 
» 

c 
o 
ï 
o* 

c 
o 
1 
o 

-._ 

a*  I* 

Sources : United Mations,  World Population Prospect 1996 (applicant States) -Eurostat,  Demographic Projections 1996, 
Baseline scenario (EUR15) 

What  will  be  the  implications  of  demographic 
change  for  the  labour  market  in  the  applicant 
States?  As in the case of the previous analyses,  the 
principal  conclusions  can  be  drawn  from  two 
indicators  : dependency rates and the growth of the 

population  of  working  age.  The  results,  presented 
in figure 10, allow for the following  conclusions : 

•  Some of those countries  set  to experience  a  fall 
in total population over the next  20 years will 

17 

also  experience  a  significant 
the 
population  of  working  age  over  this  same 
period. 

fall 

in 

Poland  and  the  Slovak  Republic  will  see  the 
population  of working age  grow at a faster  rate 
than the total population. 

Dependency ratios provide a more detailed view 
of the differences  between countries in terms of 
demographic  ageing.  The  dependence  of  older 

people  in  all  the applicant  States  is  lower  than 
in the  Union.  Five of them  nevertheless  have a 
higher  proportion  of  older  people  than  young 
people,  with  relatively  high  dependency  rates 
(Estonia,  Hungary,  Slovenia,  Bulgaria  and  the 
Czech Republic). 

Poland  and  the  Slovak  Republic  are  worthy  of 
particular  note  among  the  countries  with  a 
younger population structure. 

Figure  10 - Applicant States 
Development indicators for the population of working age (15-64 years) between  1995 and 2015 
10a - Growth index for the population of working aee (base  100 in  1995) 

140 

m 
-r-  120 
O 
CM 
in  100 
o> 
o> 
T- 
JZ 

80 

o  60 
™  40 
o 
X 

20 

•o 
^ 

0 

= 100 in 1995 

— 

o 

10b - Dependency rates in 2015 

de=dep. of elderly (65+/15-64); dy=dep. of young (0-14/15-64); dt=total dep. (de+dy) 

60% 

-

Sources  : United  Nations  World  Population  Prospect  1996  (applicant  States)  - Eurostat,  Demographic  Projections  1996, 
Baseline  scenario 

(EUR15) 

tkmoisrmf^^^^Kt^?^^ 

The observed  slower demographic growth  for  most 
of the Eastern  European  States  is explained  by the 
low  fertility  rates,  the  high  mortality  and  the 
important  migratory  outflows,  observed  over  the 
last  years.  Total  fertility  rates  have  declined 
substantially  over the last decade bringing  some of 
these States to levels lying below EU average. 

However,  the  demographic  ageing 
is  not  so 
advanced  in these States because of their  relatively 
higher mortality patterns. 
These patterns  refer  to children  under  one year of 
age  (high  infant  mortality  rates),  and  the  most 
elderly members of the population. 

Figure  11 plots each  country  with  reference  to two 
variables  which,  generally  speaking,  serve  as  a 
development  indicator. 
•  Leaving aside  atypical  cases such  as  Malta  and 
Cyprus,  with  a  very  different  history  of  social 
and  economic  development  than  the  10  other 
applicant  States,  major  efforts  are  needed  in 
order to reduce this mortality. 

•  Slovenia and  the Czech  Republic  seem  to have 
infant 

made  progress  in  this  respect,  with 
mortality rates of below  10 per 1000. 

•  Romania  has  very  high  infant  mortality  rates 
and  a  quite  low  life  expectancy.  Together  with 
the  Baltic  States  and  Hungary,  it  has  achieved 
life 
the  poorest  performance 
expectancy. 

terms  of 

in 

25 

O  20 
o 
o 
0 
3  15 
> 

« 

|  10 

e 

Figure 11 - Applicant States 
Infant mortality and life expectancy at birth in 1995 

•  Romania 

Latvia 

Hungary 

î 

• 
Estonia 

Bulgaria 
I  • 
Poland 
!• 
I 
• 
Slovak R. 

• 
Lithuania 
i 

Czech R. 

Slovenia 

Malta 
• 

Cyprus 
• 

EUR1S 

68 

69 

70 

71 

72 

73 

74 

75 

76 
77 
Life expectancy 

78 

Sources: United Nations World Population Prospect 1996 (applicant States) - Eurostat, Demographic Statistics, 1997 

IUR15) 

Conclusion 

Although  it  will  come  later  and  to  a  lesser  degree,  population  ageing  will  also  affect  Eastern  European 
countries. In half of these States demographic trends have already opened the door to increased  pressure on  the 
social protection system which even now is experiencing  difficulties. 

These  States  are  also  going  to  experience  a  sometimes  significant  fall  in  the  population  of  working  age. 
heralding  problems of a similar  nature to those with which European  Union  will be faced  after  2010.  A  future 
of sustained growth would  require the activation  of the existing  labour force  reserves  Developments  in Poland 
and  the  Slovak  Republic  might  be  somehow  different.  Sustained  economic  growth  and  job  creation  will  be 
required. The gulf between the cities and the countryside may pose a special challenge in these States. 

These  States  will  also  be  confronted  with  other  challenges,  in  particular  in  the  area  of  health,  in  order  to 
improve their high mortality rates. 

9 

ANNEXE 

A. SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU POPULATION (1995-2015) 

High 
Low 
Baseline 
Old 
Young 

High 
Low 
Baseline 
Old 
Young 

High 
Low 
Baseline 
Old 
Young 

High 
Low 
Baseline 
Old 
Young 

Average  number of children per woman 
2010 
1.91 
1.40 
1.63 
1.40 
1.91 

2000 
1.75 
1.40 
1.55 
1.40 
1.75 

2005 
1.87 
1.40 
1.60 
1.40 
1.87 

Life  expectancy  at birth  (Men) 

2000 
75.5 
73.9 
74.7 
75.5 
73.9 

2005 
76.9 
74.3 
75.6 
76.9 
74.3 

2010 
78.1 
74.7 
76.4 
78.1 
74.7 

Life expectancy at birth  (Women) 

2000 
81.7 
80.5 
81.1 
81.7 
80.5 

2005 
82.7 
80.9 
81.9 
82.7 
80.9 

2010 
83.7 
81.3 
82.5 
83.7 
81.3 

1995 
1.50 
1.42 
1.45 
1.42 
1.50 

1995 
74.3 
73.5 
73.9 
74.3 
73.5 

1995 
80.7 
80.1 
80.4 
80.7 
80.1 

2015 
1.92 
1.41 
1.64 
1.41 
1.92 

2015 
79.2 
75.0 
77.2 
79.2 
75.0 

2015 
84.4 
81.5 
83.1 
84.4 
81.5 

Annual  migration  balance  (in thousands) 

1995-1999 
934 
527 
719 
527 
934 

2000-2004 
977 
391 
654 
391 
977 

2005-2009 
840 
388 
605 
388 
840 

2010-2014 
788 
396 
592 
396 
788 

20 

B.  METHOD  OF CALCULATING  THE DEMOGRAPHIC  AND BEHAVIOURAL  EFFECT 
(ACTIVITY  RATE EFFECT)  IN CHANGES  IN THE ACTIVE  POPULATION 

On the basis  of the  population  aged  between  15 and  64  per  year  of age and  per  gender  in  1995, and 
demographic  projections  for the population  aged  between  15 and  64 per year  of age and gender up to 
2015, for each gender we have, 

for 

Pt 
Pit 
o\t 

= 
= 
= 

population aged between  15 and 64 in year t 
population of age i in year t (i ranging from 15 to 64 years) 
percentage  of age  i complement  in  15-64  age group  complement  in  year  t,  the 
vector (a 15, cfoX defining the structure per age in year t, so that 

Put / Pt  =  cTlt  with I CT, =  1  for year t 

and for  ar, t  = 
APlt  = 
AP,  = 

activity rate for year of age i in year t 
active population of age i in year t 
total active population ( 15 to 64 years) in year t 

the following relations: 

AP,,  = 

ar ,,t x  P, t  = 

ar 1>t x  a,,  x Pt 

AP,  = 

E,  (arlt  x  o\t  x Pt) 

and the variation in the active population between two different  dates as follows: 

AAP  = 

I,  (ar,  x  atxAP)  + l]  (arj  x  ACTJ x  P) + I,  (Aar,  x  a,  x  P)  +  e 

demographic effect 

activity rate effect 

residue 

that is the sum of the two effects: 

•  an activity rate effect,  expressed by the variation  in the active population with a constant  15-64 age 
group  complement  and  constant  age  structure;  this  expresses  the  degree  of  participation  in 
employment of a given complement; 

•  a demographic  effect,  expressed  by the  variation  in the active population  with  a  constant  activity 
rate per year of age and constant age structure;  this demographic effect  combines an effect  linked to 
the complement and an effect  linked to its age composition. 

As the method was applied  to each of the  Union countries, the  residual  factor  e  linked  to  the  discrete 
nature of the time series has never exceeded 2.5% of the total variation. It was ignored in the analysis of 
results. 

l( 

ISSN 0254-1475 

COM(97) 361 final 

DOCUMENTS 

EN 

04  05  16 

]  I 

Catalogue  number  :  CB-CO-97-361-EN-C 

ISBN  92-78-22719-6 

Office  for Official  Publications of the liuropcan Communities 

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