WRITTEN QUESTION No. 1618/97 by Sérgio RIBEIRO to the Commission. Manipulation and credibility of Commission statistical forecasts
Date: 1997-05-05
Institutions: European Parliament, RIBEIRO
Subjects: EU Member State, EU statistics, economic forecasting, equal treatment, public finance, statistical method













EUR-Lex - 91997E1618 - EN






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91997E1618

WRITTEN QUESTION No. 1618/97 by Sérgio RIBEIRO to the Commission. Manipulation and credibility of Commission statistical forecasts  


Official Journal C 045 , 10/02/1998 P. 0061 





WRITTEN QUESTION P-1618/97 by Sérgio Ribeiro (GUE/NGL) to the Commission (5 May 1997)Subject: Manipulation and credibility of Commission statistical forecastsThe Commission itself has stressed the importance of creating a climate of trust. It has said that, for such a climate of trust to exist, it must ensure that it produces high-quality and reliable surveys and forecasts.We share this view and the Commission's concerns.However, in its efforts to create a climate of trust, the Commission has actually taken an interventionist approach and has paid little attention to strengthening its credibility. The way in which statistical forecasts have developed is far more a sign of its wish to exploit the trust of economic operators and public opinion than of any intention to build up trust based on reliability. Now, in the April forecasts, as the date draws near for assessment of the achievement of the convergence criteria, the Commission seems to have surpassed itself and to have reached the stage where its credibility is being questioned even within its own ranks and this most unusual state of affairs has caught the attention of the media.Will the Commission state whether the unequivocal reports issued by the media are accurate, i.e. the claim that Commissioner Bonino considers that forecasts have been manipulated with a view to improving the statistical presentation of the state of public finance in Germany and France without doing the same in the case of Italy?Answer given by Mr de Silguy on behalf of the Commission (17 June 1997)The Commission categorically rejects the suggestion that the recent spring economic forecasts for 1977 were manipulated in any way. In drawing up its forecasts, it scrupulously applies - as it always has done - the principles of independence from outside pressures, objectivity and non-discrimination in the treatment of Member States. This means that all Member States are treated equally.The economic forecasts are drawn up according to a well-established procedure. A Commission forecasting exercise lasts almost three months, which allows ample time for reflection and for producing high-quality work that takes account of the most recent information. The professionalism and independence of Commission officials cannot be called into question.Lastly, the Commission stresses that there is no connection between this economic-forecasting exercise and the report which it will produce in the spring of 1998 in preparation for the third stage of economic and monetary union. This report will be based on the definitive figures for 1997, which will not be known until the end of February 1998.