COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION UNDER THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Date: 1996-06-11
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: UN convention, climate change, environmental protection, greenhouse gas, pollution control measures

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES 

Brussels,  11.06.1996 
COM(96)  217  final 

COMMUNICATION  FROM  THE  COMMISSION  UNDER  THE  UN 

FRAMEWORK  CONVENTION  ON  CLIMATE  CHANGE 

Article  4.2.  (b)  (c)  (d)  and  Article  12 

CONTENT 

EXECUTIVE  SUMMARY 

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

2.  SPECIFIC  CIRCUMSTANCES  IN  THE EUROPEAN  COMMUNITY 

Introduction 

2.1. 
2.2.  Geographical  setting  of  the  European  Community 
2.3.  Climate  profile 
2.4.  Social  profile 
2.5.  Economic  profile 
2.6.  Energy  profile 

3.  THE EC EMISSION  INVENTORY 

3.1. 

Introduction 

Inventory  methodology 

3.2. 
3.3.  Feedstocks 

3.4.  Bunkers 
3.5.  Uncertainties  involved 

4.  PROGRAMMES,  POLICIES  AND  MEASURES 

Introduction 

4.1. 
4.2.  The  Community  strategy  to  limit  C02 

page 

X 

1 

4 

4 
4 
6 
8 
9 
11 

14 
14 

14 
17 

17 
18 

19 
19 

emissions  and  improve  energy  efficiency 

19 
20 
4.3.  Community  programmes  and  initiatives 
26 
4.4.  The  proposal  for  an  energy/carbon  tax 
27 
4.5.  The  monitoring  mechanism 
4.6.  Sectoral  policies 
28 
4.7.  Commission  Working  Paper  on  the  EU  Climate  Change  Strategy:  a  set  of 
33 
33 

4.8.  Summary 

options 

5.  NATIONAL  PROGRAMMES  OF THE MEMBER  STATES 

Introduction 

5.1. 
5.2.  The  Member  States'  National  Reports  to  limit  greenhouse  gas  emissions 
5.3.  Summary 

37 
37 
37 
58 

6.  PROJECTIONS  OF  C02  EMISSIONS  IN  2000 

6.1. 

Introduction 

6.2.  Modelling  techniques  and  scenarios 
6.3.  Trends  in  C02  emissions 

7.  VULNERABILITY  ASSESSMENT  AND  ADAPTATION  MEASURES 

Introduction 

7.1. 
7.2.  Possible  impacts  of  climate  change  on  the  European 

Community 

7.3.  Adaptation  activities 

8.  FINANCE  AND  INTERNATIONAL  COOPERATION 

Introduction 

8.1. 
8.2.  Cooperation  with  third  countries 
8.3.  Cooperation  with  developing  countries 
8.4.  Cooperation  with  the  countries  of  Central  and 

Eastern  Europe  and  the  former  Soviet  Union 

8.5.  Summary 

9.  RESEARCH  AND  DEVELOPMENT 

Introduction 

9.1. 
9.2.  Second  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and 

Development 

9.3.  Third  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and 

Development 

9.4.  Fourth  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and 

Development 

9.5.  Summary 

10.  EDUCATION,  TRAINING  AND  PUBLIC  AWARENESS 

10.1.  Introduction 
10.2.  Information,  education  and  training  programme 
10.3.  Dissemination  of  research  results 
10.4.  Research  activities  regarding  education,, training 

and  public  awareness 

LITERATURE 

LIST  OF  ABBREVIATIONS 

ANNEX  1.  National  greenhouse  gas  emission  inventories 

ANNEX  2.  Scenarios 

60 
60 

60 
62 

64 
64 

64 
67 

69 
69 
69 
71 

75 
78 

79 

79 

79 

80 

83 
86 

88 
88 
88 
91 

92 

93 

95 

97 

128 

EXECUTIVE  SUMMARY 

1.  Introduction 

1.1.  The  European  Community1  signed  the  UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate 
Change  (UN  FCCC)  at  the  UN  Conference  on  Environment  and  Development 
(UNCED)  in  Rio  de  Janeiro  in  1992  and  ratified  it  on  the  21st  of  December  1993. 

1.2.  As  a  Party 

to  the  Convention, 

the  European  Community  has  accepted 

the 
commitment  to  adopt  policies  and  take  corresponding  measures  aimed  at  returning 
emissions  of  greenhouse  gases  to  1990  levels,  individually  or  jointly,  by  the  year 
2000.  With  respect  to  C02,  the  European  Community  set  itself  the  objective  to 
stabilise  emissions  by  the  year  2000  at  1990  levels,  in  the  terms  agreed  by  the  Joint 
Energy/Environment  Council  of  October  1990. 

1.3.  The  present  Communication  of  the  European  Community  under  the  UN  FCCC 
explicitly  describes  measures  to  address  climate  change  which  are  or  will  be  taken 
at  the  Community  level  in  the  period  1990-August  1995.  Relevant  information  of 
Austria,  Finland  and  Sweden,  which  joined  the  European  Community  on  1  January 
1995  has  been  included.  The  commitments  of  the  European  Community  are  to  be 
reached  with  complementary  Community  and  national  programmes.  Since 
the 
national  programmes  have  been  described  in.detail  in  the  National  Communications 
under  the  UN  FCCC  of  the  Member  States,  these  programmes  have  only  been 
summarized  in  this  communication. 

2.  Specific  circumstances  in the  European  Community 

2.1.  The  Member  States  of 

the  European  Community  vary  enormously 

in  size, 
population,  geographical  and  economic  profile.  Until  1 January  1995,  the  European 
Community  consisted  of 
following  Member  States:  Belgium,  Denmark, 
Germany,  France,  Greece,  Ireland,  Italy,  Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands,  Portugal, 
Spain  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Since  1 January  1995,  Austria,  Sweden  and  Finland 
acceded  to  the  European  Community. 

the 

Throughout  the  text  the  term  "European  Community"  is  used,  since  this  is  the  legal 
name  deposited  to  the  United  Nations  in  1994.  The  "Commission  of  the  European 
Communities"  is  the  formal  name  of  the  European  Commission. 

2.2.  The  European  Community  is  relatively  modest  in  size  (3  240  153  km2).  The  total 
number  of 
to  370  million 
inhabitants  of  the  European  Community  amounts 
inhabitants,  i.e.  the  average  population  density  amounts  to  114  inhabitants  per  km2. 
The  territory  of  the  European  Community  is  made  up  of  a  wide  variety  of  land  of 
varying  quality,  almost  a  quarter  of  which  is  arable  (28%),  approximately  a  third 
wooded  (35%)  and  a  substantial  proportion  grassland  (18%). 

2.3.  The  level  of  development  of  the  national  economies  in  the  European  Community 
varies  considerably  among  the  Member  States.  The  GDP  per  capita  of  the  majority 
of  the  Member  States  lies  in  between  11  500  ECU  and  16  500  ECU  (figures  for 
1992  in  1985  prices  and  exchange  rates).  Service  sectors  are  the  most  important 
economic  sectors  in  the  European  Community.  Manufacturing  industries  are  the 
second  most  important  sector.  The  transport  sector  in  the  EC  has  shown  above-
average  C 02  emission  growth  in  recent  years  and  is  one  of  the  major  sources  of 
C 02  emissions  (Green  Paper  on  Transport  and  Environment;  COM  (92),  46  final, 
20.02.92).  The  EC  is  depending  on  imports  for  most  of  its  energy  provision. 

3.  The  EC  emission  inventory 

3.1.  The  EC  inventory  for  the  year  1990  has  been  compiled  based  on  the  inventories  of 
the  15  Member  States.  Table  El  provides  a  summary  of  greenhouse  gas  emission 
estimates  in  1990.  To  estimate  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European 
Community,  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  each  one  of  the  Member  States  were 
added  together.  Estimates  of  emissions  in  the  Member  States  were  primarily  taken 
from  national  communications  prepared  by  the  Member  States  under  the  UN  FCCC. 
If  these  were  not  available,  national  programmes  under  the  EC  Decision  on  a 
Monitoring  Mechanism  for  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gases  were  used.  In  general, 
the  inventories  reported  in  these  national  reports  followed  the  IPCC  guidelines  for 
inventories.  If  no  nationally  reported  estimates  were 
national  greenhouse  gas 
available,  CORINAIR  and/or  Eurostat  figures  have  been  used. 

3.2.  Since  nationally  reported  inventories  were  not  available  for  all  EC  Member  States, 
and  CORINAIR  does  not  include  removals  of  C02,  C02  emissions  and/or  removals 
from  Land  Use  Change  have  not  been  quantified  in  the  1990  EC  inventory. 

3.3.  The  emission  estimates  presented  in  Table  E.l  are  structured  according  to  the 
reporting  instructions  of  the  IPCC  guidelines  for  greenhouse  gas  inventories.  For 
reasons  of  consistency,  EUROSTAT  estimates  have  been  used  for  each  of  the 
Member  States  to  calculate  their  feedstock  emissions.  These  have  been  reported 
separately  in  the  category  "Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)". 

II 

Table  E.l.  EC  inventory  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  1990. (Gg).  Short  Summary  Table.  Provisional  estimates1. 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in European  Community  (EUR-15)  -  1990 (Gg). 

CO, 

CH4 

NX) 

NOT 

CO 

NMVOC 

All  energy 
Fuel  combustion 
Fugitive  fuel 
Industrial  processes 
Solvent  use 
Agriculture 
Land  use  change 

1 
la 
lb 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6  Waste 

3153200 
3145700 
7700 
148300 
300 
500 
NE2 
25850 

5587 
793 
4795 
42 
0 
10349 

8681 

Total  emissions3 

3328350 

24660 

157 
157 
1 
353 
6 
385 

20 

922 

13332 
13243 
88 
154 
0 
50 

46184 
46092 
92 
2811 
0 
2763 

71 

327 

8422 
7697 
726 
1077 
4043 
738 

93 

13606 

52085 

14374 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC3 
(FNEC  =  Final  Non-Energy  Consumption) 

113600 
56500 
243600 

NE  = Not  Estimated 

Notes: 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Community  are  based  on  estimates  of 
emissions  in  the  Member  States, updated  up  to  June  1995. 
C02  emissions  and/or  removals  from  Land  Use  Change  are  not  known  for  many  countries  and  hence 
have  not  been  included  in  this table. Non-C02  greenhouse  gas emissions  from  Land  Use  Change  have 
also  not  been  estimated. 
Emissions  from  Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (including  feedstocks)  have  not  been  included  in 
the  IPCC 
total  emissions.  Therefore, 
methodology.  Emissions  from  Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)  are  based  on  the  total  carbon 
contained  in  the  related  products.  The  addition  of energy  emissions  and  emissions  from  FNEC  would 
therefore  produce  an  overestimation  compared  to  the  IPCC  methodology. 

total  emissions  are  underestimated 

in  comparison  with 

3.4.  Following  the  decisions  taken  at  ninth  session  of  the  Intergovernmental  Negotiating 
Committee  on  a  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  (INC-9),  emissions 
from  bunkers  are  not  included  in  the  total  emissions  in  summary  Table  E.l.  Since 
only  a  few  Member  States  provided  estimates  of  bunker  emissions,  emission 
estimates  from  maritime  bunkers  are  based  on  Eurostat  figures.  Aviation  bunker 
emissions  have  been  estimated  by  reconciling  non-road  transport  figures  from 

•  Eurostat  against  estimates  reported  in  CORINAIR  and/or  country  reports. 

3.5.  The  uncertainty 

in 

the  emission  estimates  has  not  been  quantified, 

since 
quantitative  estimates  of  the  uncertainty  would  be  highly  unreliable.  Estimates  for 
C02  emissions  from  fuel  combustion  activities  (based  on  energy  balance  figures) 
are  rather  reliable  and  are  likely  to  be  least  uncertain  (within  about  +/-  3%).  The 
uncertainty 
the 
following  order:  CO  <  NOx  <  CH4  <  NMVOC  <  N20,  with  uncertainties  increasing 
to  several  orders  of  magnitude  (several  hundreds  of  percent). 

in  emission  estimates  from  non-C02  gases 

increasing 

in 

is 

Ill 

4.  Programmes,  policies  and  measures 

4.1. 

In  October  1991,  the  Commission  presented  an  overall  strategy  to  limit  C02 
emissions  and  improve  energy  efficiency,  with  the  objective  of  stabilising  C02 
emissions  in  the  Community  in  the  year  2000  at  the  1990  level.  The  Community 
strategy  rests  on  four  pillars: 

-  The  EC  energy  conservation  and  energy  technology  programmes. 

the  elaboration  of  the  RTD  strategy  and  addresses 

The  THERMIE  I  programme  (1990-1994)  aimed  at  the  demonstration  and 
dissemination  of  cleaner  and  more  efficient  energy  techniques.  The  JOULE  II 
to  the  R&D  in  the  same  area;  it  also 
programme  (1991-1995)  is  relative 
concerns 
the  Energy-
Economy-  Environment  dimensions  of  the  Climate  Change 
issue.  SAVE  (1991-
1995)  is  a  programme  of  energy  efficiency  legislation  and  financial  support  for 
the  Member  States. 
the  creation  of  energy  efficiency 
ALTENER  (1993-1997)  provides  financial  support  for  activities  contributing  to 
the  application  of  renewable  energy  technologies,  and  envisages  standardization 
measures  for  renewable  energy  equipment. 

infrastructure 

in 

-  Fiscal  measures. 

In  June  1992,  the  Commission  proposed  a  draft  Council  Directive  for  a  tax  on 
fossil  fuels  whose  tax  base  will  be  to  50%  the  energy  content  and  to  50%  the 
carbon  content  of  the  energy  product.  In  December  1994,  the  Council  agreed  on 
the  need  to  implement  a  Community  framework  for  the  Member  States  for  the 
application  of  national  C02/energy  taxation.  An  amended  proposal  has  been 
adopted  by  the  Commission  on  10  May  1995.  The  main  change  proposed  is 
that  the  implementation  of  a  harmonised  tax  will  be  preceded  by  a  transitional 
period  during  which  the  Member  States,  while  respecting  a  harmonised  tax 
structure,  are  free  to  set  the  tax  rates  product  by  product  provided  that  the 
improvement  of 
Community  objectives  of  limiting  C02  emissions 
is  fully 
energy  efficiency  and  fuel  switching  towards  low  -no  carbon  fuels 
reflected  in  the  structure  of  the  rates  applied. 

through 

-  A  monitoring  mechanism. 

The  monitoring  mechanism  surveys  the  Community  and  Member  State  actions 
aimed  at  reaching  the  Community  C02  stabilisation  target  for  the  year  2000.The 
Commission  evaluates  these  programmes  in  order  to  assess  whether  progress  in 
to  ensure  the  stabilisation  of  C02 
the  Community  as  a  whole  is  sufficient 
emissions  by  the  year  2000  at  1990  levels.  The  results  are  reported  to  the 
European  Parliament  and  the  Council. 

-  National  programmes. 

The  Community  strategy  requires  policy  programmes  which  limit  greenhouse 
gas  emissions  at  Member  State  level,  and  which  will  be  complementary  to 
actions  taken  at  the  Community  level. 

IV 

From  1  January  1995  THERMIE  has  continued  as  the  new  Non-Nuclear  Energy 
programme,  better  known  as  JOULE-THERMIE;  This  new  Programme  (1995-
1998)  brings  together  for  the  first  time 
the  research  and  development  aspects  of 
JOULE  with  the  demonstration  and  promotion  initiatives  of  THERMIE. 

The  Commission  has  adopted  its  proposal  for  a  new  SAVE  programme  (SAVE-II) 
on  31  May  1995.  Two  other  programmes  with  similar  aims  and  activities,  the 
PACE  programme  for  electricity  efficiency  and  the  annual  Programme  of  support 
for  Regional  and  Urban  actions  will  be  merged  into  SAVE-II.  It  is  scheduled  to 
begin  on  1  January  1996  and  will  run  until  31  December  2000.  The  proposed 
budget  is  150  MECU. 

4.2.  Next  to  the  policies  and  measures  adopted  in  the  framework  of  the  Community 
strategy,  some  sectoral  policies  also  contribute  to  the  limitation  of  greenhouse  gas 
emissions. 

the 

reduction  of  agricultural  support  prices  and 

-  The  1992  restructuring  of  the  Common  Agricultural  Policy  (CAP)  contains 
the 
measures,  such  as 
introduction  of  set-aside  schemes  for  agricultural  land,  that  have  a  limiting 
impact  on  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  Moreover, 
agri-environmental 
measures,  that  have  been  adopted  as  accompanying  measures  to  the  CAP 
reform,  contribute  to  the  limitation  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions. 

the 

-  The  EC  forestry  policies,  such  as  supporting  financially  afforestation  and 
promoting  the  environmental  productivity  of  forests  by  regulation,  contribute  to 
the  uptake  of  C02  emissions. 

-  Within  the  Community,  transport  is  a  major  and  strongly  growing  source  of 
greenhouse  gas  emissions.  From  1991  to  1994,  a  series  of  Council  Directives 
has  been  adopted  which  prescribe  standards  for  emissions  of  CO,  hydrocarbons 
and  NOx  from  various  types  of  vehicles.  Fiscal  policies  with  regard  to  excise 
duties  on  transport  fuels  harmonize  minimum  rates,  and  are  aimed  at  a 
progressive  increase  of  these  duties. 

-  Concerning  waste,  the  Directive  on  packaging  and  packaging  waste  and  the 
Directive  on  landfills  of  waste  were  adopted  on  20  December  1994  (94/62/EC). 
Preventing  the  production  of  packaging  waste,  reusing  packaging,  recycling  and 
reducing  the  final  disposal  of  waste  will  result  in  a  reduction  of  C02  and  CH4 
emissions. 

4.3.  Before  the  first  Conference  of  the  Parties  to  UN  FCCC  and  in  response  to  the 
request  of  the  Council  the  Commission  prepared  and  adopted  on  1  March  1995  a 
"Commission  Working  paper  on  the  EU  Climate  Change  Strategy:  a  set  of 
options",  (SEC  95/288/fmal).  In  the  document  a  preliminary  analysis  of  the  policy 
options  for  C02  limitation  in  the  perspective  2005-2010  is  given.  The  document 
indicates,  amongst  others,  that  a  technical  potential  for  C02  emission  reduction  by 
2010  of  up  to  10%  exists,  at  no  or  low  costs  compared  to  1990  level,  provided 

V 

positive  synergies  between  climate  change  policies  and  several  other  policy  areas 
of  the  Community  are  exploited.  A  more  detailed  analysis  will  be  carried  out  by_ 
the  Commission  at  a  later  stage. 

4.4.  An  overview  of  the  policies  and  measures  that  have  been  adopted  by  the  Council  is 

provided  in  Table  E.2. 

VI 

Table  E.2.  Programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council. 

Name 

Period 

Budget 

Description 

THERMIE  I 

1990  -  1994 

700  MECU 

Financial  support  for  clean  energy  technologies 

SAVE-programme 

1991  -  1995 

35  MECU 

Financial  support  for  energy  efficiency  projects 

SAVE-legislation 

1992  -  .... 
1992  -  .... 
1994  -  .... 

Energy  Management  at 
Regional  and  Urban  level 

1990-1995 

Energy  efficiency  standards  for  new  hot  water  boilers 
Energy  labelling  of  major  household  appliances,  Framework  Directive 
Energy  labelling  of  refrigerators  and  freezers 

20  MECU 

Rationalisation  of  energy  use  at  regional  and  urban  level 

ALTENER-programme 

1993  -  1997 

40  MECU 

Financial  support  for  renewables 

Voluntary  agreement 

Monitoring 

mechanism 

CAP  Reform, 
price  lowering 

CAP  Reform, 

set-aside  scheme 

1993  -  2000 

Procedures  to  monitor  progress  towards  C 02  stabilisation  target 

CEN/CENELEC  will  elaborate  standards  for  thermal  solar  with  CEN/ 
CENELEC  systems,  photovoltaics  and  wind  turbines 

1992 

1992 

Reduction  of  agricultural  prices  makes  the  use  of  mineral  fertilizer 
is  one  reason  for  decreasing  use  of  mineral 
less  profitable  and 
fertilizers  (and  thereby  N20  emissions)  in  the  last  years 

Compulsory  set-aside  scheme  promotes  growing  of  biofuels 

VII 

Table  E.2.  Programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council  (continued). 

Name 

CAP  Reform, 

extensification  of 
beef  production 

Period 

1992  -  .... 

Budget 

Description 

Premiums  are  related  to  maximum  stocking  rates,  reducing 
CH4  emissions  from  ruminants  per  ha 

Agri-environmental  1993-1997 

measures 

3670MECU 

Financial  support  for  zonal  programmes,  incl.  environmental 
measures 

Afforestation 

1993 - 1997 

1260  MECU 

Financial  support  for  afforestation 

Protection  of 
forests  from 
pollution 

Protection  of 

forests  from  fires 

Emission  standards 
for  heavy  duty 
vehicles 

1092 - 1996 

29.4  MECU 

Measures  increase  net  primary  productivity  of  trees  and 
thereby  potential  C 02  uptake. 

1992 - 1996 

70  MECU 

Measures  contribute  to  C02  uptake 

1993 - .... 

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NO, 

Emission  standards 

1993 - .... 

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NO, 

for  light  duty 
vehicles 

Emission  standards 
for  passenger  cars 

Fiscal  measures  for 
for  transport  fuels 

1997 

1992 -

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NO, 

Minimum  excise  duties  on  petrol  and  diesel  fuels 

VIII 

Table  E.2.  Programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council  (continued). 

Name 

Period 

BudgetDescription 

Landfill  directive 

1994  -  .... 

Environmental  standards  for  landfilling  of  waste  contributes  to  limitation  of  CH4  emissions 

IX 

5.  National  programmes  of  the  Member States 

5.1.  One  of  the  pillars  of  the  strategy  of  the  European  Community  to  limit  greenhouse 
gas  emissions  consists  of  the  national  programmes  adopted  by  the  Member  States. 
All  Member  States,  except  Belgium,  already  reported  under  the  UN  FCCC. 
Belgium  submitted  to  the  UN  FCCC 
its  national  programmes  under  the  EC 
Monitoring  Mechanism  for  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gases. 

5.2.  All  national  reports  include  a  1990  emission  inventory,  a  list  of  programmes, 
policies  and  measures  adopted  to  limit  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  and  projections 
of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  2000.  Since  the  projections  included  in  the  national 
input 
reports  have  been  compiled  using  various  modelling 
assumptions,  they  cannot  be  added  together  to  arrive  at  projections 
the 
European  Community. 

tools  and  key 

for 

5.3.  Eight  Member  States  expect  an  increase  in  C02  emissions  in  2000  compared  to 
1990:  Austria,  Finland,  France,  Greece,  Ireland,  Italy,  Portugal,  and  Spain.  One 
Member  State  expects  to  reach  a  stabilisation  of  C02  emissions  in  1990:  Sweden2. 
Five  Member  States  are  expecting  a  decrease  in  C02  emissions  in  2000:  Belgium, 
Denmark3,  Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands4  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Germany 
provides  a  projection  for  C02  emissions  in  2005  and  expects  a  C02  emission 
reduction  by  that  year. 

in  CH4  emissions: 

Eleven  Member  States  provided  projections  of  CH4  and  N20  emissions  in  2000. 
Two  Member  States  expect  an 
Ireland  and 
increase 
Luxembourg;  Another  two  expect  a  stabilization:  Austria  and  France;  and  the 
remaining  seven  Member  States  expect  a  reduction  in  CH4  emissions:  Denmark, 
Finland,  Greece,  Italy,  the  Netherlands,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Six 
Member  States  expect  an  increase  in  N20  emissions:  Denmark,  Finland,  Greece, 
Ireland,  Luxembourg  and 
two  Member  States  expect  a 
stabilization:  Austria  and  Italy;  and  three  other  Member  States  expect  a  reduction 
in  N20  emissions:  France,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Germany  provided 
projections  for  2005  and  expects  a  reduction  in  both  CH4  and  N20  emissions. 

the  Netherlands; 

2  If  based  on  temperature  corrected  C02  emissions  in  1990.  If  projected  figures  are 
compared  with  actual  C02  emissions  in  1990,  an  increase  in  C02  emissions  of  4%  is 
estimated. 

3  If  based  on  C 02  emissions  in  1990  which  have  been  corrected  for  electricity  import 
fluctuations.  If  projected  figures  are  compared  with  actual  C02  emissions  in  1990,  an 
increase  in  C 02  emissions  of  3%  is  estimated. 

4  If  based  on  temperature  corrected  C02  emissions  in  1990.  If  projected  figures  are 
compared  with  actual  C02  emissions  in  1990,  C02  emissions  are  estimated  to  stabilize. 

X 

6.  Projections  of  C02  emissions  in  2000 

6.1.  As  a  first  attempt  to  project  energy  related  C02  emissions  in  the  EC,  the  larg& 
scale  energy  planning  and  forecasting  model  MIDAS  (Model  Integrating  Demand 
top-down 
and  Supply)  has  been  used.  The  model  combines  an  econometric 
approach  with  a  micro-economic  approach.  Several  scenarios  have  been  applied  in 
the  model.  The  MIDAS  model  and  the  scenarios  applied  differ,  in  structure  and  in 
assumptions  with  regard  to  exogenous  variables,  from  the  models  and  scenarios 
used  by  Member  States  to  forecast  their  C02  emissions.  Results  are  therefore  not 
comparable. 

However,  it  should  be  stressed  that  the  simulations  described  in  this  report  are  not 
official  simulations  to  assess  the  impact  of  climate  change  policies  in  the  EC.  The 
results  of  the  simulations  are  provided  as  a  first  indication  of  future  EC  greenhouse 
gas  emission.  Further  work 
to  develop  more  accurate 
is  being  undertaken 
modelling  tools  and  scenarios. 

6.2.  Table  E.3  shows  the  trend  in  energy  related  C02  emissions  in  EUR-15. 

Table  E.3.  Trends  in  energy  related  C02  emissions  in  the  EC  (15  Member  States).  (1000 
Gg.);  preliminary  results 

Ï99Ô 

2000 

2ÔÏÔ 

2Ô2Ô 

Conventional  Wisdom  3,155 
3,155 
Battlefield 
3,155 
Forum 
3,155 
Hypermarket 

3,326 
3,357 
3,089 
3,325 

3,557 
3,428 
2,986 
3,597 

3,648 
3,368 
2,855 
3,686 

the  most 

representing  a  conventional  wisdom  view  of 

6.3.  According  to  the  Conventional  Wisdom  Scenario,which  denotes  the  "business  as 
usual"  world 
likely 
evaluation  of  events,  C02  emissions  in  the  EC  are  expected  to  increase  with  5%  by 
the  year  2000,  with  13%  by  the  year  2010  and  with  16%  by  the  year  2020 
(compared  with  1990  levels).  The  results  of  the  Hypermarket  scenario,  which  gives 
show  a  similar 
a  predominant  role  to  market  forces,  liberalism  and  free  trade, 
increase:  an  increase  is  expected  of  5%,  14%  and  17%  for  the  years  2000,  2010 
and  2020  respectively.  The  Battlefield  scenario,which  assumes  amongst  others  that 
in  a 
the  world  reverts  to 
decreasing  growth  of  C02  emissions:  an  increase  of  6%  in  2000,  of  9%  in  2010 
and  of  7%  in  2020.  According  to  the  Forum  scenario,"which  assumes  amongst 
international 
others  that  the  world  moves  more  to  consensus  and  cooperative 
structures  with  a  strong  role  for  public  administration  and  intervention,"  a  reduction 
in  C02  emissions  is  expected:  2%  in  2000,  5%  in  2010  and  10% in  2020. 

isolation,  power  blocks  and  protectionism,  results 

XI 

7.  Adaptation  and vulnerability 

7.1.  Since  the  territory  of  the  European  Community  consists  of  a  rich  variety  of 
landscapes  and  also  the  climate  varies  considerably  among  the  different  parts  of  the 
Community, 
impacts  of  climate  change  can  differ  enormously 
depending  on  local  or  regional  circumstances. 

the  possible 

7.2.  Assuming  a  doubling  of  atmospheric  C02  concentrations,  average  winter 
temperatures  in  northern  Europe  are  expected  to  increase  by  2-5  °C,  while  the 
winters  in  the  central  and  southern  region  can  be  1-3  °C  warmer.  Average  summer 
temperatures  are  expected  to  increase  by  1-4  0c  throughout  all  of  Europe.  The 
change  of  temperatures  and  precipitation  has  enormous  impacts  for  agriculture, 
depending  on  the  region  these  impacts  could  be  both  positive  and  negative,  despite 
of  partially  positive  impacts,  negative  impacts  will  predominate  for  agriculture  in 
general.  Sea  level  rise  is  a  potential  threat  to  the  large  coastal  area  of  the  European 
Community  (approximately  89  000  km  of  coastline,  without  counting  the  coasts  of 
the  small  islands),  especially  to  low  lying  lands.  The  impact  of  major  storms  will 
become  more  widespread  as  the  sea  surface  rises.  Especially  in  the  North  and 
Mediterranean  Seas,  the  impacts  of  storms  are  a  matter  of  particular  concern. 
Analysis  of  economic  impacts  show  that  economic  costs  will  most  likely  be  the 
overall  consequence  of  global  warming  for  the  EC,  although  some  sectors  and 
regions  may  benefit. 

7.3.  One  of  the  key  targets  of  the  Fifth  Action  Programme  of  the  EC  "Towards 
Sustainability"  is  the  integrated  management  of  coastal  zones.  The  Commission  is 
currently  preparing  a  Communication  on  the  integrated  management  of  coastal 
zones.  It  was  felt 
to  be  better 
implemented.  Coordination 
to  that  end.  A  three  years 
demonstration  programme  is  proposed  in  order  to  investigate  and  demonstrate  the 
conditions  of  coordination,  horizontally  between  the  multiple  sectors  of  activity 
(integration)  and  vertically  between 
(subsidiarity). 
the 
Research  and  development  activities  will  provide  a  scientific  basis  for  sound 
ecological  management  of  the  coastal  zones. 

levels  of  competence 

instruments  exist  but 

is  seen  as  a  means 

they  need 

that 

that 

7.4. 

In  June  1994,  the  European  Community  signed  the  Resolution  on  strategies  for  a 
process  of  long-term  adaptation  of  forests  in  Europe  to  climate  change.  European 
research  on  the  linkages  between  climate  change  and  forests  ecosystems  is  being 
intensified. 

8.  Finance  and  international  cooperation 

8.1.  Since 

the  adoption  of  the  Fifth  Action  Programme  "Towards  Sustainability", 
progress  has  been  made  in  integrating  environmental  requirements  into  cooperation 
with 
transition. 
Environmental  concerns  are  now  reflected  in  most  of  the  bilateral  cooperation 
contracts  established  between  the  Community  and  its  partner  countries. 

countries  with 

developing 

economies 

countries 

and 

in 

8.2.  Cooperation  with  non  Community  countries,  the  so  called  "third  countries"  relating 
to  climate  change,  inter  alia,  takes  place  in  the  frame  of  the  SYNERGY  initiative 
and  the  European  Energy  Charter.  For  all  cooperation  projects  likely  to  have  an 
impact  on  the  environment  an  Environment  Impact  Assessment  is  required.  The 
Commission  has  proposed  to  change  this  initiative  in  a  programme.  The  objective 

XII 

of  the  SYNERGY  initiative  is  to  improve  the  long  term  world  energy  situation  and 
hence,  Community  energy  security,  by  helping  other  countries  to  make  effective 
energy  policy  decisions.  By  encouraging  energy  planning,  the  rational  use  of 
energy  and  counselling  and  training,  SYNERGY  contributes  to  the  reduction  of 
greenhouse  gas  emissions.  The  Programme  is  to  last  five  years  and  has  a  budget  of 
50  MECU.  The  European  Energy  Charter  was  signed  in  December  1994.  The 
charter  includes  a  political  declaration  committing  its  signatories  to  cooperate  in 
trade,  investment  and  other  policies  in  all  energy  sectors.  These  efforts  should  lead 
to  the  creation  of  a  true  energy  market  throughout  Europe.  Environment  protection 
and  more  efficient  use  of  energy  brought  about  by  treaties  and  protocols  in  the 
frame  of  the  charter  will  have  a  positive  impact  on  limiting  C02  and  other 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  particular  by  encouraging  market  prices,  and  hence, 
more  efficient  energy  usage. 

8.3.  Cooperation  with  developing  countries  takes  place  in  the  framework  of  general  and 
more  specific  cooperation  programmes.  The  specific  programmes  include  research 
cooperation,  energy  and  forestry  related  issues.  The  research  cooperation  has  been 
targeted  through  the  "Life  sciences  and  technologies  for  Developing  Countries"  on 
areas  of  relevance  for  global  change  issues,  and  in  particular  those  relative  to  the 
use  and  management  of  ecosystems,  cooperation  on  energy  and  forestry  related 
issues  have  made  possible  the  financing  of  projects  relative  to  renewable  energy  in 
Asian  and  Latin  America  countries  (ALA)  and  to  conservation  and  sustainable 
management  of  tropical  and  subtropical  forests 
in  the  African,  Caribbean  and 
Pacific  countries  (ACP). 

The  most  comprehensive  of  all  the  general  agreements  with  developing  countries 
are  those  with  the  ACP-countries,  the  so-called  Lomé  Conventions.  Under  Lomé 
IV  (1990-1995),  environment  has  become  one  of  the  main  areas  of  cooperation. 
Within  the  framework  of  efforts  to  protect  the  environment  and  restore  natural 
the 
balances,  cooperation  aims 
conservation  of  natural  resources,  renewable  and  non-renewable,  the  protection  of 
ecosystems  and  the  control  of  drought,  desertification  and  deforestation.  Another 
main  area  of  cooperation  is  energy  development,  in  particular  energy  efficiency  and 
the  promotion  of  new  and  renewable  sources  of  energy. 

specific  operations  concerning 

to  promote 

Since  1976,  the  Community  has  been  pursuing  a  policy  of  financial,  technical  and, 
more  recently,  also  economic  cooperation  with  the  ALA-developing  countnes. 
Under  the  new  guidelines  for  Community  cooperation  with  ALA  countries,  long-
term  priorities  are  the  protection  of  the  environment  and  natural  resources,  and 
sustainable  development.  10  %  of  the  total  budget  for  the  period  1991-1995,  has 
been  set  aside  for  projects  specifically  aimed  at  protecting  the  environment,  in 
particular  tropical  forests. 

8.4.  EC  cooperation  with  the  central  and  eastern  European  countries  (CEECs)  and  the 
is  mainly  based  on  the  PHARE  (Poland  and  Hungary 
former  Soviet  Union 
Assistance 
the  TACIS  (Technical 
Assistance  to  the  Commonwealth  of  Independent  States)  programmes.  The  PHARE 
the  political  and  economic 
programme 
development  of 
issue  are 
particularly  the  activities  related  to  energy. 

to  the  Restructuring  of  the  Economy)  and 

the  CEECs.  Of  relevance 

initiative  which  supports 

the  climate  change 

is  an  EC 

to 

XIII 

The  overall  aim  of  the  TACIS  programme  is  to  contribute  to  the  transition  towards 
a  market  economy  of  the  independent  states  of  the  former  Soviet  Union.  Since 
1993,  the  TACIS  Regulation  includes  a  specific  reference  to  the  environment. 
Energy  is  specified  as  one  of  the  priority  sectors  of  the  TACIS  programme. 
Important  to  note  is  that  each  project  in  the  energy  sector  contains  an  energy 
saving  component. 

9.  Research,  demonstration  and  development 

9.1.  Research  on  climate  change  is  embedded  in  the  EC  Framework  Programmes  of 
Research  and  Development.  Within  these  framework  programmes,  the  specific 
research  programmes  on  environmental 
issues,  non-nuclear  energy  and  marine 
science  are  of  particular  importance  to  climate  change.  Research  budgets  in  all 
three  areas  have  been  largely  increased  during  the  last  years. 

9.2.  During  the  Second  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (1987-
1991),  the  European  Programme  on  Climatology  and  natural  Hazards  (EPOCH) 
had  the  strongest  liaison  with  the  climate  change  issue.  Research  focused  on:  past 
climates  and  climate  change,  climate  processes  and  models,  climatic  impacts  and 
climate-related  hazards,  and  seismic  hazard. 

9.3.  The  emphasis  on  environmental  research  has  increased  in  the  Third  Framework 
Programme  of  Research  and  Development 
(1990-1994).  The  Environment 
programme  consisted  of  the  following  research  areas:  participation  in  global  change 
programmes,  environmental  technologies  and  engineering,  research  on  economic 
and  social  aspects  of  environmental  issues,  and  technological  and  natural  risks. 

9.4.  The  Fourth  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (1994-1998) 
includes  a  specific  programme  on  Environment  and  climate.  The  programme  covers 
four  themes:  the  natural  environment,  environmental  quality  and  global  change; 
environmental  technologies;  space  techniques  applied  to  environmental  monitoring 
and  research,  and  human  dimensions  of  environmental  change.  The  Joint  Research 
Centre  (JRC)  will  also  contribute,  through  its  own  programme  of  activities,  to  the 
attainment  of  the  Community  objectives  in  the  areas  covered  by  the  programme  on 
Environment  and  climate. 

9.5.  Two  successive  programmes  regarding  new  energy  technologies,  JOULE  I  (1989-
1992)  and  JOULE  II  (1990-1994),  have  been  established  by  the  Community.  Both 
programmes  addressed  the  development  of  clean  and  efficient  energy  technologies 
in  the  three  following  areas:  rational  use  of  energy  (in  industry,  transport  and 
building),  advanced  technologies  for  fossil  fuels,  and  renewable  energies;  a  large 
activity  about  energy-economy-environment  modelling  is  also  undertaken  which 
has  been  focused  in  particular  on  the  C 02  strategy.  The  environment  dimension 
which  was  already  an  integral  part  of  JOULE  I has  been  strengthened  in  JOULE  II. 

9.6.  A  specific  programme  on  non-nuclear  energy 

is  continuing  under  the  Fourth 
Framework  Programme.  It  is  called  JOULE-THERMIE.  This  programme  will 
integrate  for  the  first  time  the  R&D  and  the  Demonstration  activities.  R&D  will 
give  more  emphasis  to  the  renewable  energy  and  transport,  whereas  demonstration 
of  energy,  fossil  fuel  technology  and 
activity  will  support  more  rational  use 
dissemination,  a  substantial  support  to  the  RDT  strategy  will  be  ensured  and 

XIV 

focused  on  a  Climate  Change 
environmental  costs  of  energy. 

technology  strategy  and  on  the  internalisation  of 

9.7.  The  European  Community's  Marine  Science  and  Technology  (MAST)  programmes 
aim  to  introduce  the  necessary  Community  dimension  to  various  on-going  research 
activities  of  the  Member  States.  MAST  intends  to  contribute  to  establishing  a 
scientific  and  technological  basis  for  the  exploration,  exploitation,  management  and 
protection  of  Europe's  coastal  waters  and  the  seas  surrounding  the  EC's  Member 
States  and  thereby  to  achieve  a  better  balance  in  the  marine  science  potential  of  the 
various  areas  of  the  EC. 

10.  Education,  training  and public  awareness 

10.1.  The  success  of  policies  and  measures  addressing  the  problem  of  climate  change 
will  depend  to  a  large  extent  on  the  decisions  and  actions  of  the  general  public.  At 
the  EC  level,  information,  education  and  training  programmes  concerning  climate 
change  and  energy  use  mainly  take  place  within  the  scope  of  (sectoral)  policy 
programmes,  such  as  energy  supply,  transport,  urban  development  and  agriculture. 

10.2.  Information  for  the  wider  public  is  a  key  element  of  the  SAVE,  ALTENER, 
THERMIE  programmes  and  the  action  on  Energy  Management  at  Regional  and 
Urban  level.  THERMIE's  dissemination  actions  include  a  network  of  some  forty 
Organisations  for 
the  Promotion  of  Energy  Technology  (OPET)  focusing  on 
distributing  and  promoting  innovative  energy  technologies  across  Europe,  including 
Central  and  Eastern  European  countries  and  the  former  Soviet  Union. 

10.3.  The  EC  supports  pan-European  environmental  campaigns  of 
sustainability,  or 

local  authorities 
to  global 
aiming 
sustainability,  such  as  Sustainable  Cities  and  Towns,  the  Car  Free  Cities  Club  and 
Cities  for  Climate  Protection. 

local  contribution 

significant 

local 

at 

10.4.  Training  and  education  belong  to  the  accompanying  measures  of  the  EC  research 
programmes.  An  example  of  these  activities  are  the  courses  which  are  organised  by 
the  European  School  of  Climatology  and  Natural  Hazards. 

XV 

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

The  Treaty  establishing  the  European  Community  (EC)  entered  into  force  in  1958.  Since 
then,  it  has  been  modified  several  times  to  allow  new  States  to  accede  to  membership 
and  to  reinforce  and  enlarge  its  objectives.  The  two  major  texts  modifying  the  original 
Treaty  are  the  Single  European  Act,  which  entered  into  force  in  1987,  and  the  Treaty  on 
European  Union  known  also  as  the  Treaty  of  Maastricht.  The  latter  entered  into  force  at 
the  1st  November  1993.  Until  1 January  1995, the  European  Community  consisted  of  the 
following  Member  States:  Belgium,  Denmark,  France,  Germany,  Greece,  Ireland,  Italy, 
Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands,  Portugal,  Spain  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Since  1  January 
1995,  Austria,  Finland  and  Sweden  also  became  Members  of  the  European  Community. 
Although  this  communication  mainly  deals  with  the  the  period  1990-1994.  relevant 
information  of  the  three  new  Member  States  have  been  included.  In  addition,  relevant 
developments  on  community  and  national 
level  since  1  January  1995  have  been 
addressed  as  well. 

The  main  objectives  of  the  European  Community  are  set  out  in  article  2  of  the  Treaty  on 
European  Union:  "to  promote  throughout  the  Community  a  harmonious  and  balanced 
development  of  economic  activities,  sustainable  and  non-inflationary  growth  respecting 
the  environment,  a  high  degree  of  convergence  of  economic  performance,  a  high  level  of 
employment  and  of  social  protection,  the  raising  of  the  standard  of  living  and  quality  of 
life,  and  economic  and  social  cohesion  and  solidarity  among  Member  States"5.  The 
Treaty  on  European  Union  has  introduced  as  a  principal  objective  the  promotion  of 
the  environment.  The  Treaty 
sustainable  and  non-inflationary  growth 
recognizes 
the 
integrated 
definition  and  implementation  of  other  Community  policies.  One  of  the  objectives  of 
Community  environmental  policy  is  to  promote  measures  at  the  international  level  to  deal 
with  regional  or  worldwide  environmental  problems. 

that  environmental  protection  requirements  must  be 

respecting 

into 

the  environment 

The  Fifth  Environment  Action  Programme  "Towards  Sustainability",  adopted  by  the 
Commission  in  1992  and  its  broad  strategy  of  which  was  agreed  by  the  Council  in  1993 
(OJ  C138/5,  17.5.1993),  is  the  process  by  which  Community 
environment  policy  is 
moving  forward.  It  lays  out  a  strategy  for  reconciling  economic  development  to  the 
protection  of 
the  programme 
(sustainability).  For 
recognizes  the  need  for  a  comprehensive  and  targeted  approach  towards  environmental 
issues  at  Community  level.  It  takes  as  its  starting  point  the  need  to  involve  all  the 
relevant  "actors"  of  society  in  a  spirit  of  shared  responsibility  to  achieve  sustainable 
development.  It  focuses  on  five  main  target  areas  -  industry,  agriculture,  energy,  transport 
and  tourism  - where  the  environmental  problems  are  the  most  profound  and  where  action 
can  have  most  benefits  for  the  environment  as  a  whole.  The  programme  recognizes  that 
the  legislative  or  regulatory  approach  is  not  sufficient  and  recommends  a  broadening  of 

the  first 

time, 

Art.  2,  Treaty  establishing  the  European  Community  (as  amended)  by  Art.  G(l) 
and  G(2)  of  the  Treaty  on  European  Union. 

1 

instruments,  to 

the  range  of 
financial  support 
include  economic/fiscal 
mechanisms,  and  horizontal  instruments  such  as  information,  education,  research  and 
development,  and  data  gathering. 

instruments, 

The  tasks  entrusted  to  the  European  Community  are  carried  out  by  the  following 
institutions:  an  elected  European  Parliament,  a  Council  consisting  of  a  representative  of 
each  Member  State  at  ministerial 
independent 
Members  and  a  Court  of  Justice  to  ensure  the  interpretation  and  application  of  the  Treaty. 

level,  a  Commission  consisting  of 

In  order  to  carry  out  their  tasks,  the  Commission  and  the  Council  acting  jointly  or  in 
cooperation  with  the  European  Parliament  can  make  Regulations,  issue  Directives,  take 
Decisions,  make  Recommendations  or  deliver  Opinions.  Regulations  are  of  general 
application.  They  are  binding  in  their  entirety  and  are  directly  applicable  in  all  Member 
States.  Directives  are  binding  as  to  the  result  to  be  achieved,  but  leave  to  Member  States 
the  choice  of  form  and  methods.  That  means  that  Directives  need  to  be  incorporated  into 
national  legislation  within  a  certain  time  limit  fixed  by  the  Directive  itself.  Decisions  are 
are  addressed.  Finally, 
to  whom 
binding 
Recommendations  and  Opinions  have  no  binding  force. 

their  entirety  upon 

those 

they 

in 

legislation  under  normal  conditions,  a  proposal 

the 
To  enact  Community 
Commission  is  necessary.  Acting  on  the  basis  of  such  proposal,  the  legislative  bodies 
under  the  Treaty  (the  Council,  and  to  some  extent,  the  Parliament),  assisted  by  some 
advisory  bodies,  adopt  the  final  text. 

from 

Action  by  the  Community  regarding  environmental  issues  has  to  be  taken  in  accordance 
with,  inter  alia, 
the  principle  of  subsidiarity.  This  principle  states  that  the  Community 
should  only  take  action  if  and  in  so  far  as  the  objectives  of  the  proposed  actions  cannot 
be  sufficiently  achieved  by  the  member  sates  and  can  therefore,  by  reason  of  the  scale  or 
effects  of  the  proposed  action,  be  better  achieved  by  the  Community. 

The  European  Community6  signed  the  UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change 
(UN  FCCC)  at  the  UN  Conference  on  Environment  and  Development  (UNCED)  in  Rio 
de  Janeiro  in  1992.  As  a  follow-up,  the  Commission  submitted  a  proposal  for  a  Council 
Decision  concerning  the  conclusion  of  the  UN  FCCC  in  December  1992.  This  proposal 
ratification, 
was  inter  alia  founded  on  Article  22  of  the  Convention  which  allows 
acceptance  or  approval  by  States  and  by  Regional  Economic  Integration  Organisations.  In 
the  proposed  Council  Decision  it  was  considered  that  "since  the  Community  and  its 
Member  States  share  competence  in  the  areas  covered  by  the  Convention,  it  is  necessary 
according  to  the  Community  and  its  Member  States  to  become  Contracting  Parties  so  that 
all  the  obligations  under  the  Convention  can  be  properly  fulfilled".  More  specifically  it 
the 
was  considered  necessary 
the 
Convention  and  assumed  the  relevant  responsibilities 
emission  stabilisation  objective  of  the  Convention  while  not  all  the  Member  States  were 
ready  to  meet  that  objective  individually. 

to 
in  order  to  comply  with 

that  the  Community  became  a  contracting  Party 

In  December  1993,  the  Council  agreed  to  adopt  the  Commissions'  proposal  for  the 
the 
Council  Decision,  "recognizing  the  importance  for  the  Community  of  ratifying 

Throughout  the  text  the  term  "European  Community"  is  used,  since  under  the 
Treaty  of  the  European  Economic  Community  has  been  converted  into  European 
Community.  In  this  communication,  the  term  European  Community  refers  to  either 
the  12  (EUR-12)  or  15  Member  States  (EUR-15).  The  "Commission  of  the 
European  Communities"  is  the  formal  name  of  the  European  Commission. 

z 

the  commitment  relating 

Convention  before  it  enters  into  force  and  alongside  its  Member  States,  so  as  to  allow  the 
fulfilment  of 
the 
Community  by  the  Community  as  a  whole  through  action  by  the  Community  and  its 
the  European 
Member  States,  within 
Community  ratified 
the  UN  FCCC  on  21  December  1993.  On  the  same  day,  the 
threshold  of  50  ratifications  was  met,  leading  to  the  Convention  entering  into  force  on 
21  March  1994. 

their  respective  competences".  As  a  result, 

limitation  of  C02  emissions 

to  the 

in 

As  a  Party  to  the  Convention,  the  European  Community  accepts,  among  others,  the 
commitment  to  adopt  policies  and  take  corresponding  measures  aimed  at  returning 
emissions  of  greenhouse  gases  to  1990  levels,  individually  or  jointly,  by  the  year  2000. 
With  respect  to  C02,  the  European  Community  set  itself  the  objective  to  stabilize 
emissions  by  the  year  2000  at  1990  levels,  in  the  terms  agreed  by  the  Council  of 
Ministers  of  29  October  1990  . 

The  present  Communication  of  the  European  Community  under  the  UN  FCCC  explicitly 
describes  policies  and  measures  to  address  climate  change  which  are  or  will  be  pursued 
at  the  Community  level.  However,  the  commitments  of  the  European  Community  are  to 
be  reached  with  complementary  Community  and  national  programmes.  Only  a  short 
summary  of  the  national  communications/programmes  is  included  in  order  to  provide  a 
complete  overview  of  activities  taking  place  within  the  European  Community. 

SPECIFIC  CIRCUMSTANCES  IN  THE EUROPEAN  COMMUNITY 

2.1.  Introduction 

The  Member  States  of  the  European  Community  vary  enormously  in  size,  population, 
geographical  and  economic  profile. 
is  provided  of 
background  information  relevant  to  this  report.  Basic  data  and  characteristics  of  the 
Member  States  are  provided,  including  data  relating  to  geography,  climate,  society, 
economy  and  energy. 

this  chapter,  an  overview 

In 

2.2.  Geographical  setting  of  the  European  Community 

The  European  Community,  as  a  geographical  entity,  is  relatively  modest  in  size,  but 
owing  to  the  restricted  area  it  occupies,  its  situation  and  favourable  natural  conditions,  it 
is  a densely  populated  part  of  the  world. 

In  a  comparatively  small  area,  the  European  continent  contains  a  rich  variety  of 
landscapes.  Four  major  morphological  zones  can  be  distinguished: 

- 

- 

- 

- 

the  North  European  Plain,  site  of  many  major  cities  and  fertile  agricultural 
lands; 
the  central  and  southern  European  Highlands,  comprising  the  Sierra  Nevada, 
Pyrenees,  and  Alps; 
the  old  Fennoscandian  Shield  and  Caledonian 
the 
Scandinavian  highlands  and  the  north  and  western  part  of  Ireland  and  the  UK; 
and 
the  littoral  zone  of  the  Mediterranean. 

range,  consisting  of 

The  coastal  zones  of  the  European  Community  constitute  a  unique  environmental 
heritage,  with  important  ecological,  cultural  and  economic  resources.  As  an  indication  of 
the  scale,  the  European  Community  has  about  89.  000  km  of  coastline  excluding  the 
small  islands  and  inland  seas  (CEC,  1993) 

The  territory  of  the  European  Community  is  made  up  of  a  wide  variety  of  land  of 
varying  quality,  almost  a  quarter  of  which  is  arable  (27%),  approximately  a 
th*ird 
wooded  (35%)  and  a  substantial  proportion  grassland  (18%).  Table  2.1  provides  an 
the  relative 
overview  of 
contribution  of  land  use  in  the  European  Community. 

in  the  Member  States,  and  Figure  2.1  shows 

land  use 

Forests  are  unevenly  distributed,  and  the  proportion  of  territory  they  occupy  varies  from 
one  country  to  another.  Finland  (69%)  and  Sweden  (62%)  have  the  highest  proportion  of 
forest  cover,  while  Ireland  (5%)  and  the  Netherlands  (8%)  are  well  below 
the 
Community  average  (20%).  Ireland  has  the  highest  proportion  of  agricultural  land:  80% 
of  the  total  area  consists  of  agricultural  land. 

Table  2.1. 

Agricultural  land,  wooded  areas  and  other  land  (km2)  in the Member  States 
(figures  provided  for  1991). 

Agricultural  area 
Crop 
lands1 

Meadows2  area 

Wooded 

Other 
land 

Total  area 

Austria 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 
Spain 
Sweden 
United  Kingdom 
European  Community 

15,060 
8,270 
25,480 
25,130 
192,500 
119,100 
39,050 
9,230 
119,700 

19,860 
32,100 
5,280 
6,170 
4,450 
2,080 
1,200  232,220 
148,720 
104,120 
26,200 
3,200 
67,680 

111,040 
52,430 
52,550 
46,900 
48,750 

16,700 
10,798 
11,083 
79,600 
96,826 
•  81,297 
14,157 
10,955 
65,181 

560 

696 

890 

446 

9,220 
31,730 
199,460 
27,680 
65,910 
888,080 

10,640 
3,500 
8,380 
33,000 
102,600 
159,150 
5,520 
280,200 
24,250 
111,090 
579,010  1,125,930 

18,120 
18,876 
43,585 
136,560 
42,880 
647,133 

83,860 
30,518 
43,093 
338,150 
549,096 
356,947 
131,957 
70,285 
301,311 
2,586 
41,480 
91,986 
504,759 
449,960 
244,138 
3,240,153 

Arable  land  and  permanent  crops. 
Permanent  meadows  and  pastures. 

2 
Source:  Eurostat. 

Legenda 

B« 

Arable land and permanent  crops 
Permanent meadows and  pastures 
Wooded area 
Other  land 

Figure  2.1.  Land  use  in the  European  Community. 

Source:  Eurostat 

2.3.  Climate  profile 

This  section  deals  with  the  EUR-12  since  no  data  could  yet  be  obtained  from  the  three 
new  Member  States. 

Four  main  types  of  climate  can  be  identified  in  the  European  Community: 

the  maritime  climate,  with  mild  winters,  cool  summers  and  constant  humidity. 
This  climate  type  dominates  the  western  edge  of  the  European  continent. 

the  semi-continental  climate,  with  cold,  dry  winters  and  hot,  stormy  summers. 
The  eastern  fringes  of  the  European  Community  is  dominated  by  this  type  of 
climate. 
the  Mediterranean  climate,  with  mild,  wet  winters,  hot  dry  summers  and 
infrequent  but  heavy  rainfall.  This  climate  is  found  in  the  coastal  areas  of  the 
Mediterranean. 

the  climate  found  in  mountain  areas,  which  depends  on  altitude  and  exposure  to 
sun,  wind  and  rain. 

is  provided 

The  average  temperature  and  precipitation  varies  considerably  among  countries.  An 
overview 
in  Table  2.2.  The  coldest  country  is  Belgium,  with  average 
temperatures  of  7.2  °C  (minimum)  and  9.7  °C  (maximum).  The  warmest  country  is 
Greece  with  average  temperatures  of  14.1  °C  (minimum)  and  18.2  °C  (maximum).  Spain 
shows  the  most  variation  in  rainfall:  minimum  rainfall  amounts  to  218  mm  per  year, 
maximum  rainfall  amounts  to  1702  mm  per  year. 

Table  2.2.  Minimum  and  maximum  average  temperature  and  precipitation  in  Eur-12  . 

Long  term  averages. 

Average  temperature 
over  the  year  (°C) 
Min. 

Max. 

Belgium 
Denmark 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 
Spain 
United  Kingdom 

Source:  Eurostat 

7.2 
7.5 
9.5 
7.8 
14.1 
9.0 
11.5 
8.4 
8.5 
13.2 
11.0 
8.4 

9.7 
8.1 
14.9 
10.6 
18.2 
10.6 
18.4 

9.7 
17.2 
18.5 
10.9 

Precipitation  (mm  H20) 

Min. 

824 
551 
493 
560 
422 
781 
424 
856 
562 
527 
218 
496 

Max. 

1191 
874 
1236 
979 
1044 
1502 
1142 

777 
1064 
1702 
967 

An  indicator  for  the  need  for  space  heating  is  the  number  of  degree-days,  a  measure  of 
the  severity  of  the  cold  dunng  a  specific  period  of  time.  The  number  of  degree-days 
equals  to:  (18  °C  -  Tm)  * d,  if  Tm  is  lower  than  or  equal  to  15  °C  (heating  threshold);  and 
are  nil,  if  Tm  is  greater than  15  °C; where  Tm is  the  mean  temperature  and d  is  the  number 
of  days.  Figure  2.2  provides  an  overview  of  the  number  of  degree-days  in  the  Member 
States.  The  figure  shows  that the  greater  part  of  the  Member  States  has  a  relatively  high 
need  for  space  heating.  No  similar  data  are  available  for  the  need  for  air-conditionmg  in 
the  Member  States. 

3 S OO 

3 0 00 

S S OO 

^ O OO 

1  o oo 

s oo 

O  e çg  r e e - c d e iy 

s 

-—• 

' 

1 

1 

; 

.-:•:• ,:• 
'—~— 

--  ••• 
r"  •' ' •; 

t _H 
r—*~~ 

' 

— —— 

— —; 

• 

" / : •-

B 

CDK. 

O 

QR 

E 

F= 

I f=<  I 

1_ 

ML 

F> 

Ul 

Figure  2.2.  Number  of  degree-days1  in  the  EUR-15  (figures  provided  for  1991). 

Source:  Eurostat  (EU. 12) 

The  number  of  degree-days  equals  to: 
(18  °C  "Tm)  * d,  if Tm  is  lower  than  or  equal  to  15 °C  (heating  threshold); 
and  are  nil,  if  Tm  is greater  than  15 °C; 
where  Tm  is  the  mean  temperature  and  d  is  the  number  of  days. 

2.4.  Social  profile 

In  1993,  the  total  population  of  the  15  Member  States  of  the  European  Community, 
amounted  to  370  million.  This  represented  6.5%  of  the  total  world  population,  compared 
with  9.8%  in  1960  and  the  projected  figure  of  4.2%  in  2020.  This  drop  in  the  share  of 
the  world's  population  is  due  to  a  relative  low  increase  in  population  compared  to  the 
increase  in  total  world  population. 

The  average  population  density  of  the  European  Community  amounts  to  114  inhabitants 
per  km2.  In  the  more  densely  populated  regions  this  rises  to  over  300  per  km2.  The  zones 
with  a  high  population  density  are  concentrated  along  a  diagonal  line  from  north-west 
England  to  the  north  of  Italy  through  Belgium,  the  Netherlands  and  the  industrialized 
regions  of  the  Ruhr  in  Germany. 

in  population  varies 
The  total  population,  the  population  density  and  the 
considerably  among  the  Member  States.  An  overview  of  population  statistics  is  provided 
in  Table  2.3.  The  most  density  populated  country  of  the  European  Community  is  the 
Netherlands  (369  inhabitants  per  km2),  which  also  has  the  highest  population  increase 
(33%  increase  between  1960  and  1990).  The  average  population  increase  in  the  European 
Community  between  1960  and  1990  amounts  to  17  %. 

increase 

The  total  number  of  households  in  the  European  Community  in  1990  amounts  to  137 

million,  while  the  average  household  size  is  2.7  persons. 

Table  2.3.  Population  profile  in  the  Member  States. 

Member  State 

Total  area 
(km2) 

Population 
(1000) 
1993 

Population 
density 
1993 

Population 
increase  in  % 
1960  -  1993 

Austria 
Belgium 

Denmark 
Finland 

France 

Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 

Spain 
Sweden 
United  Kingdom 

83  860 
30  518 

43  093 

338  150 
549  086 

356  947 
131  957 
70  285 
301  311 
2  586 
41  480 
91  986 
504  795 
449  960 
244  138 

7  991 
10  084 

5  189 

5  066 
57  655 

81  179 
10  380 
3  563 
57  049 
398 
15  290 
9  876 
39  083 
8  719 
58  191 

EUR-15 

3  240  153 

369  715 

Source:  Eurostat 

95 
330 

120 

15 
105 

227 
79 
51 
189 
154 
369 
107 
77 
19 
238 

114 

13 
11 

13 

14 
26 

12 
25 
26 
14 
26 
33 
11 
28 
16 
11 

17 

2.5.  Economie  profile 

In  1993,  the  Gross  Domestic  Product  (GDP)  of  the  European  Community  (expressed  in 
constant  prices  of  1985)  amounted  approximately  to  4400  billion  ECU.  The  EC  economy 
consists  of  a  rather  heterogeneous  entity  composed  of  a  limited  number  of  big  economies 
and  some  medium-sized  and  smaller  economies.  Table  2.4  provides  an  overview  of  the 
GDP  and  the  annual  growth  rate  in  the  Member  States.  Germany,  France,  Italy  and  the 
United  Kingdom,  the  four  Member  States  with  the  highest  GDP,  account  for  75% of  the 
total  GDP  in  the  EC  and,  are  therefore  the  driving  forces  of  the  EC's  economic  activities. 

The  level  of  development  of  the  national  economies  in  the  European  Community  varies 
considerably  among  the  Member  States.  Figure  2.3  shows  the  GDP  per  capita  in  the 
Member  States  in  1993. The  GDP  per  capita  of  the  majority  of  the  Member  States  lies  in 
between  11  500  ECU  and  16  500  ECU  (figures  in  1985  prices  and  exchange  rates).  Four 
Member  States  have  a  GDP  per  capita  which  is  considerably  lower  than  the  average  GDP 
per  capita  for  the  European  Community,  ranging  from  4  200  ECU  to  10  500  ECU.  The 
trend  in  GDP  growth,  however,  shows  that  those  countries  have  the  highest  annual 
growth  rate  in  GDP  and  thus  are  currently  catching  up  with  the  other  countries  in  the 
European  Community. 

Table  2.4.  Gross  Domestic  Products  at  market  prices  in  the  European  Community 

(expressed  in  1985  prices  and  1985  exchange  rates). 

Member  State 

Austria 
Belgium 
Denmark 
Finland 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 
Spain 
Sweden 
United  Kingdom 
EUR-15 

Source:  Eurostat 

• 

GDP  1993 
(bill.  ECU) 

Annual  %  change 
1970-1993 

104.6 
125.3 
85.1 
73.3 
808.0 
1049.6 
59.3 
37.2 
658.5 
7.7 
204.7 
41.2 
276.9 
141.3 
708.7 
4381.2 

2.7% 
2.3% 
2.0% 
2.3% 
2.4% 
2.5% 
2.8% 
4.4% 
2.6% 
4.0% 
2.3% 
3.5% 
2.9% 
1.5% 
2.0% 
2.4% 

s o o oo 

-i s o oo 

-i o o oo 

s o oo 

Figure  2.3.  GDP  per  capita  in  the  European  Community  in  1993  (  in  ECU  at  1985  prices 

and  1985  exchange  rates). 

Source:  Eurostat 

Service  sectors  (both  market  and  non-market  services)  are  the  most  important  economic 
sectors  in  the  European  Community.  Their  relative  share  in  economic  activities  is  still 
growing.  Manufacturing  industries  are  the  second  most  important  sector.  The  importance 
of  the  agricultural  sector  is  currently  decreasing.  Table  2.5  shows  the  Gross  Value  Added 
(GVA)  per  economic  sector. 

Table  2.5.  Relative  contribution  of  sectoral  Gross  Value  Added 

in 

the  European 

Community  (in  current  prices  and  exchange  rates);  EUR-12. 

10 

Sector 

GVA  1992 
(mill.  ECU) 

GVA  1992 
Annual  change  of 
(%  of  total  GVA)  GVA  1980  -  1992 

Agriculture/Forestry 
Energy 
Manufacturing 
Building  &  Construction 
Market  Services 
Non-Market  Services 
Total  of  Branches 

131,832 
241,028 
1,139,325 
312,820 
2,520,722 
753,758 
5,099,491 

2.6  % 
4.7  % 
22.3  % 
6.1  % 
49.4  % 
14.8  % 
100  % 

Source:  Eurostat. 

(%) 

£8  % 
6.1  % 
5.9  % 
6.0% 
8.8  % 
7.4  % 
7.4% 

in 

the  achievement  of 

to  economic  growth 

Transport 
the  European 
Transport  has  made  a  major  contribution 
in 
.It  has  enabled 
Community 
production  and  led  to  increased  competition.  In  the  EC,  the  transport  sector  accounts  for 
approximately  7-8%  of  the  GDP  and  4-5%  of  the  total  salaried  workforce  (White  Paper 
on  the  Common  Transport  Policy  ,COM  (92)494  final  2.12.1992).  The  transport  sector  in 
the  EC  is  characterised  by  strong  growth.  Since  1970,  the  overall  annual  growth  in  inland 
transport  has  averaged  3.1%  for  passengers  and  2.3%  for  goods  (White  Paper  on  the 
Common  Transport  Policy,  COM  (92)494  final,  2.12.1992).  Since  1980,  the  increase  in 
air  passenger  transport  has  averaged  6.2%  per  annum  (CEC,  1993). 

important  economies  of  scale 

Transport  is  a  major  source  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  Community.  Road 
transport  accounts  for  85%  of  the  C02  emissions  and  90%  of  the  CH4 
of  inland 
transport  emissions.  Passenger  cars  are  responsible  for  45%  and  commercial  vehicles  for 
32%  (Green  Paper  on  Transport  and  Environment;  COM(92),46  final,  20.02.92).  The 
average  number  of  cars 
in  the  European  Community  per  1000  inhabitants  amounted  in 
1993  to  420  (Eurostat).  Air  transport  is  the  second  single  most  important  source  of  C 02 
emissions,  with  a  share  of  11%.  Rail  and  inland  waterways  account  for  1%  and  3% 
respectively  (Eurostat). 

2.6.Energy  profile 

As  a  result  of  developments 
in  final  energy  demand  and  in  inputs  for  electricity 
generation,  EC  Gross  Inland  Consumption  (GIC)  of  energy  in  1990,  at  1239  Mtoe,  was 
17.7%  higher  than  in  1974.  However,  this  figure  hides  large  fluctuations  in  the  mid-
seventies  and  early  eighties,  due  to  the  oil  shocks  of  that  period.  Table  2.6  shows  the 
Gross  Inland  Consumption  in  the  EC. 

11 

Table  2.6.  EC  Gross  Inland  Consumption  (Mtoe). 

1974 

1986 

1990 

19937 

Average 
Annual 
Increase 

0.3% 
0.6% 
3.3% 
8.6% 

Solids 
Oil 
Natural  gas 
Other 

Total 

Source:  IEA  and  Eurostat 

235 
626 
137 
56 

243 
515 
193 
219 

245 
532 
216 
247 

247 
561 
252 
271 

1053 

1169 

1239 

1331 

1.2% 

The  increase  is  entirely  due  to  non-fossil  fuels,  mainly  nuclear  power.  Furthermore,  in 

1990  consumption  of  fossil  fuels  was  at the  same  level  as  in  1974  (source:  Eurostat). 

For  its  energy  provision,  the  EC  depends  on  imports.  The  degree  of  self-sufficiency,  i.e. 
total  domestic  production  divided  by  GIC,  rose  from  37%  in  1974  to  57%  in  1986, 
declining  again  to  52%  in  1992. 

The  composition  of  indigenous  energy  production  is  provided  in  Table  2.7. 

Table  2.7.  EC  Primary  Production  (Mtoe). 

1974 

1986 

1990 

1993' 

Solids 
Oil 
Natural  gas 
Nuclear 
Hydro  and  wind 
Geothermal 
Other 

189 
15 
130 
22 
21 
2 
10 

176 
150 
126 
155 
23 
2 
42 

155 
115 
131 
180 
23 
2 
42 

156 
125 
158 
198 
25 
3 
46 

Total 

389 

675 

647 

709 

Source:  IEA  and  Eurostat 

Average 
Annual 
Increase 

-1.0% 
11.9% 
1.1% 
12.3% 
0.8% 
1.6% 
8.3% 

3.2% 

7Data  for  1993  include  the  NEW  BUNDESLANDER  and  DDR. 

8Data  for  1993  include  the  NEW  BUNDESLANDER  and  DDR. 

12 

Table  2.8  relates  the  development  of  energy  intensity,  measured  as  the  quotient  of  GIC_ 
and  Gross  Domestic  Product  (GDP).  Moreover,  the  development  of  GIC  per  inhabitant  is 
shown. 

Table  2.8.  Indicators. 

1974 

1986 

1990 

GIC/GDP  (toe/1985  MECU) 
GIC/Capita  (kgoe/inhabitant) 

358 
3027 

312 
3253 

294 
3401 

19939 

304 
3600 

Source:  IEA  and  Eurostat 

From  1974  to  1993  the  total  GDP  of  EC  Member  States  rose  by  an  annual  average  of 

2.1%.  Energy  intensity  declined  on  average  by  an  annual  percentage  of  0.9%.  GIC  per 

capita  rose  annually  by  0.9%  on  average. 

Regarding  Final  Energy  Consumption  by  economic  sectors,  developments  from  1974 
until  1993  are  given  in  Table  2.9. 

Table  2.9.  Final  Energy  Consumption  (FEC)  by  economic  sectors  (Mtoe). 

Industry 
Transport 
Domestic  and  Tertiary 
TOTAL 
Source:  IEA  and  Eurostat 

1974 

1986 

1990 

199310 

304 
150 
281 
736 

233 
208 
332 
773 

251 
247 
320 
8Ï7 

253 
271 
367 
89Ô 

In  industry,  there  has  been  a  40%  improvement  in  energy  intensity  (FEC/production) 
from  "1974  until  1993".  Industrial  production  rose  by  28%,  while  FEC  declined.  In 
transport  energy  demand  has  grown  faster  than  the  overall  economic  activity. 

T>ata  for  1993  include  the  NEW  BUNDESLANDER  and  DDR. 

10Data  for  1993  include  the  NEW  BUNDESLANDER  and  DDR. 

13 

3.  THE EC EMISSION  INVENTORY 

3.1.  Introduction 

This  chapter  provides  a  summary  of  the  1990  emission  inventory  of  greenhouse  gases  for 
the  EC.  The  following  gases  will  be  discussed:  C02,  CH4,  N20,  CO,  NOx  and  NMVOCs. 
Emission  estimates  have  been  calculated  on  the  basis  of  the  national  inventories  of  the  15 
Member  States  and  by  using 
the  "IPCC  guidelines  for  national  greenhouse  gas 
inventories"  as  far  as  possible.  A  more  detailed  description  of  the  approach  applied  to 
arrive  at the  EC  inventory  is  provided  in  Section  3.2.  The  emission  inventories  of  each  of 
the  15  Member  States  are  included  in  Annex  1.  Details  on  activity  data  and  emission 
factors  have  not  been  included  in  this  Communication  since  these  have  all  been  reported 
in  national  reports  or  Eurostat  and/or  CORINAIR  databases.  In  Annex  1,  reference  is 
made  to  the  information  sources. 

3.2.  Inventory  methodology 

Greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Community  in  1990  are  presented  in  Table 
3.1. 

The  EC  inventory  for  the  year  1990  has  been  compiled  based  on  the  inventories  of  the 
15  individual  Member  States.  The  following  sources  have  been  used  to  compile  the 
emission  inventories  of  the  individual  Member  States: 

National  communications  prepared  by 
the  UN 
Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  and/or  national  programmes  under 
the  EC  Decision  on  a  Monitoring  Mechanism  for  C02  and  other  greenhouse 
gases.  In  general,  the  inventories  reported  in  these  national  reports  followed  the 
IPCC  guidelines  for  National  Greenhouse  Gas  Inventories. 

the  Member  States  under 

CORINAIR  inventory  programme.  1990  databases  have  been  used,  which  were 
provided  to  the  European  Environment  Agency  by  the  Member  States. 
Eurostat.  C02  emission  estimates  have  been  compiled  from  Eurostat  energy 
balances  and  harmonized  emission  factors  derived  by  Eurostat  from  an  analysis 
of  emission  factors  used  by  the  Member  States  in  about  1990. 

To  estimate  total  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Community,  total  greenhouse 
together11.  Estimates  of 
gas  emissions 
emissions  in  the  Member  States  were  primarily  taken  from  the  national  reports.  If  no 

in  each  of  the  Member  States  were  added 

11  Estimates  provided  in  Table  3.1  are  provisional  figures,  updated  up  to  June  1995. 

14 

nationally  reported  emission  estimates  were  available,  CORINAIR  figures  were  used. 
Fuel  combustion  related  C02  emissions  reported  in  national  reports  and/or  CORINAIR 
were  compared  with  Eurostat  C02 
(non-CORINAIR) 
emission  estimates  were  used  if  these  figures  were  available,  and  consistent  with  Eurostat 
figures.  However,  if  the  nationally  reported  estimate  was  significantly  lower  than  the 
Eurostat  estimate,  the  Eurostat  estimate  was  used  since  it  was  assumed  that  the  nationally 
reported  value  was  likely  to  be  incomplete.  If  no  nationally  reported  estimates  were 
available,  CORINAIR  figures  were  similarly  compared  with  Eurostat. 

figures.  Nationally 

reported 

It  should  be  noted  that  the  national  reports  of  the  Member  States  and/or  CORINAIR 
databases  are  not  complete  and  thus  the  emission  inventories  for  each  of  the  Member 
States  do  not  always  cover  all  source  categories  identified  in  the  IPCC  guidelines  for 
national  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  Therefore,  the  sub-totals  of  the  various  categories 
presented  in  Table  3.1  do  not  add  up  to  the  category  totals  in  Table  3.1.  This  apparent 
inconsistency  can  only  be  resolved  when  the  sub-totals  for  all  Member  States  become 
available. 

Since  nationally  reported  inventories  were  not  available  for  all  EC  Member  States,  and 
CORINAIR  does  not  include  removals  of  C02,  C02  emissions  and/or  removals  from  the 
category  land  use  change  have  not  been  quantified  in  the  EC  inventory. 

15 

Table  3.1. 

EC  inventory  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  1990.  (Gg).  Provisional  estimates. 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  European  Community  (EUR-15)  -  1990  (Gg). 

CO, 

CH4 

N2Q 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

AU  eneigy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 1 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

3142840 
3134740 
1173200 

606600 
704900 
325000 
265900 
34500 
25400 
13200 
8100 
7800 
0 

130730 

4300 
4800 
8700 
2600 
102400 
2000 
300 
100 
50 
50 
100 
500 
500 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
11050 
5400 
0 
5650 

, 

5599 
794 

49 

60 
206 
84 
286 
27 
6 
87 
4806 
1485 
2817 
40 
9 
0 
6 
5 
2 
3 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
10361 
6267 
2571 
98 
299 
141 
0 
8669 
7912 
233 
90 

156 
156 
66 
29 
36 
12 
12 
0 
0 
2 
1 
0 
0 
351 
0 
2 
90 
234 
0 
0 
6 
0 
0 
0 
6 
393 
0 
15 
1 
277 
64 
0 
20 
0 
9 
11 

13290 
13202 
2947 
1412 
7883 
231 
263 
268 
191 
29 
88 
88 
0 
151 
12 
1 
60 
0 
14 
14 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
50 
0 
0 
0 
0 
43 
0 
48 
5 
0 
21 

46229 

46137 
1215 
3191 

33718 

2164 
4037 
1048 
227 
1711 
92 
59 
0 
2811 
1563 
398 
6 
14 
0 
224 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
2763 
0 
0 
0 
0 
2362 
0 
125 
58 
0 
51 

- 

8422 
7697 
105 
99 
6529 
342 
'  464 
155 
61 
111 
849 
792 
0 
1060 
21 
0 
31 
584 
0 
260 
4045 
1399 
352 
470 
1327 
739 
0 
381 
0 
178 
131 
0 
109 
67 
0 
13 

Total  emissions 

3285620 

24671 

928 

13546 

52006 

14397 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

Notes: 

113600 
56500 
243600 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  European  Community  are  based  on  estimates  of  emissions  in  the  15 
Member  States,  updated  up  to  June  1995. 
Sub-totals  of  categories  (e.g.  l bl  and  lb2)  do  not  always  add  up  to  total  emissions  per  category  (e.g.  lb).  This  is  due 
to  the  fact  that  the  emission  inventories  for  each  of  the  Member  States  do  not  always  cover  all  categories  as 
identified  in  the  draft  IPCC  guidelines  for  national  greenhouse  gas  inventories. 
Emissions  from  Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (including  feedstocks)  have  not  been  included  in  total  emissions. 
Therefore,  total  emissions  are  underestimated  in  comparison  with  the  IPCC  methodology.  Emissions  from  Final  Non 

16 

Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)  are  based  on  the  total  carbon  contained  in  the  products.  The  addition  of  total  emissions 
and  emissions  from  FNEC  would  therefore  produce  an  overestimation  compared  to  the  IPCC  methodology. 
C02  emissions  and/or  removals  from  Land  Use  Change  are  not  known  for  many  countries  and  hence  have  not  been 
included  in  this  table. Non-C02  greenhouse  gas emissions  from  Land  Use  Change  have  neither  been  estimated. 

3.3.  Feedstocks 

inventories.  However, 

The  emission  estimates  presented  in  Table  3.1  are  structured  according  to  the  reporting 
instructions  of  the  IPCC  guidelines  for  greenhouse  gas 
the 
category  "Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)"  was  added  to  the  table,  since 
inconsistencies  exist  between  the  detailed  IPCC  approach  to  calculate  energy-related  C 02 
emissions  and  the  IPCC  reporting  instructions.  In  general,  national  reports  of  the  Member 
States  do  not  explicitly  describe  their  approach  to  calculate  emissions  from  feedstocks. 
For  reasons  of  consistency,  EUROSTAT  estimates  have  been  used  for  each  of  the 
Member  States  to  calculate  feedstock  emissions.  These  have  been  reported  separately  in 
the  category  "Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)". 

It  should  be  noted  that  this  approach  results  in  lower  total  C02  emissions  than  the 
approach  followed  by  the  IPCC  guidelines.  The  latter  includes  carbon  emitted  by  the  use 
of  feedstocks  in  their  total  estimates  of  C02  emissions  from  energy  sources,  where  the 
approach  taken  here  excludes  emissions  from  feedstocks  from 
total  emissions.  The 
emissions  reported  in  the  category  "Final  Non  Energy  Consumption"  should  be  seen  as 
the  potential  emissions  from  feedstocks  and  other  nOn-energy  uses.  This  category  also 
includes  the  carbon  actually  stored  in  products  and  not  emitted  into  the  atmosphere. 
Thus,  total  C02  emissions  as  expressed  in  Table  3.1  are  underestimated  compared  with 
the  IPCC  methodology,  while  the  addition  of  total  C02  emissions  and  "Final  Non  Energy 
Emissions"  would  produce  an  overestimation. 

3.4.Bunkers 

Following  the  decisions  taken  at  INC-9,  emissions  from  bunkers  are  not  included  in  the 
total  emissions  in  summary  Table  3.1.  Total  C02  emissions  from  marine  bunkers  in  the 
EC  amounted  to  113,600  Gg  in  1990,  while  total  C02  emissions  from  aviation  bunkers 
amounted  to  59  100  Gg.  Since  only  a  few  Member  States  provided  estimates  of  bunker 
emissions,  emission  estimates  from  maritime  bunkers  are  based  on  Eurostat  figures. 
Aviation  bunker  emissions  have  been  estimated  by  reconciling  non-road  transport  figures 
from  Eurostat  against  estimates  reported  in  CORINAIR  and/or  country  reports.  Annex  1 
provides  the  emission  estimates  for  each  of  the  Member  States. 

17 

3.5.  Uncertainties  involved 

The  uncertainty  in  the  emission  estimates  has  not  been  quantified,  since  quantitative 
estimates  of  the  uncertainty  would  be  highly  unreliable.  A  statistical  approach  to  quantify 
uncertainties  in  the  emission  estimates  would  not  result  in  reliable  figures  at  this  stage 
for  the  reasons  given  below. 

Estimates  for  C 02  emissions  from  fuel  combustion  activities  (based  on  energy  balance 
figures)  are  rather  reliable  and  are  likely  to  be  least  uncertain  (within  about  +/-  3%). 

The  uncertainty 
is  considerably 
in  estimates  of  non-C02  greenhouse  gas  emissions 
higher,  due  to  the  lack  of  knowledge  or  awareness  of  some  of  the  sources  and 
appropriate  emission  factors  for  these  gases.  As  there  may  be  some  as  yet  unknown 
sources  of  these  gases,  estimates  of  these  emissions  are  likely  to  be  underestimated.  The 
uncertainty  in  emission  estimates  is  increasing  in  the  following  order:  CO  <  NOx  <  CH4 
<  NMVOC  <  N20,  with  uncertainties  increasing  to  several  orders  of  magnitude  (several 
hundreds  of  percent). 

4.  PROGRAMMES,  POLICIES  AND  MEASURES 

4.1.Introduction 

This  chapter  surveys  the  policies  and  measures  that  have  been  adopted  by  the  European 
Community  with  the  objective  of  limiting  emissions  of  greenhouse  gases.  Policies  that 
are  explicitly  and  primarily  directed  towards  a  limitation  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are 
described  in  sections  4.2  to  4.5.  Sectoral  policies  that  include  specific  environmental 
measures  and/or  have  side-effects  on  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are  described  in  section 
4.6,  nl.  EC  policies  on  agriculture,  forestry,  transport  and  waste.  If  available,  assessments 
are  presented  of  the  impact  of  the  policies  on  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  Section  4.7 
summarizes  the  policies  and  measures  described  in  this  chapter,  distinguishing  policies 
and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council,  proposed  by  the  Commission  and  in  preparation 
by  the  Commission. 

4.2.The  Community  strategy  to  limit  C02  emissions 

and improve  energy  efficiency 

In  October  1991,  the  Commission  presented  an  overall  strategy  to  limit  C02  emissions 
and  improve  energy  efficiency,  with  the  objective  of  stabilising  C02  emissions  in  the 
Community  in  the  year  2000  at  the  1990  level  (SEC(91)1744  final).  This  so-called  "no-
regret"  strategy  consists  in  unlocking  the  zero-  or  low-cost  potential  for  limiting  C 02 
emissions,  which  currently  exists  in  all  sectors  of  the  economy  and  which  also  brings 
benefits  in  the  field  of  air  pollution  and  energy  security  as  well  as  competitiveness  and 
employment. 

In  June  1992,  a  mutually  reinforcing  package  of  measures  and  programmes  was  proposed 
to  the  Council  (COM(92)246  final).  It  rests  on  four  pillars: 

The  EC  energy  technology  programmes  and  trans-European  networks. 
The  existing  Community  programmes,  THERMIE  and  SAVE,  have  been 
reinforced.  A  new  programme,  ALTENER,  and  an  action,  which  aims  at  the 
Rationalisation  of  Energy  Use  at  Regional  and  Urban  Level,  have  been  adopted 
since  1990.  The  THERMIE  programme  is  an  energy  technology  dissemination 
programme.  SAVE  and  ALTENER  provide  financial  support  for  various  actions 
in  the  field  of  energy  efficiency  and  renewables,  but  also  include  the  preparation 
of  regulatory  measures  at  EC  level.  Also  "Energy  Management  at  Regional  and 
Urban  level"  and  the  development  of  trans-European  networks  contributes  to  the 
goal  of  C02  emission  limitation  (section  4.3). 

19 

Fiscal  measure. 
In  June  1992,  the  Commission  issued  a  draft  Council  Directive  proposing  a 
harmonised  tax  on  carbon  dioxide  emissions  and  energy  use  imposed  at  Member 
State  level,  which  has  not  been  adopted  yet  by  the  Council  (section  4.4). 
Complementary  national  programmes. 

The  Community  strategy  requires  policy  programmes  which  limit  greenhouse 
gas  emissions  at  Member  State  level,  and  which  will  be  complementary  to 
actions  taken  at  the  Community  level.  The  national  programmes  of  the  Member 
States  are  described  in  chapter  5. 
EC  Decision  on  a Monitoring  Mechanism  for  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gases. 
Part  of  the  Community  strategy  is  a  monitoring  mechanism  to  follow  whether 
the  C 02  stabilisation  target  of  the  Community  is  attainable.  In  the  framework  of 
the  Monitoring  Mechanism  Member  States  are  required  to  submit  their  national 
programmes  to  the  Commission  for  evaluation.  In  June  1993,  a  Decision 
establishing  the  monitoring  mechanism  was  adopted  (section  4.5)  Member  States 
.have  submitted  their  national  programmes  and/or  communications  under  the 
Convention.  The  first  evaluation  was  carried  out  on  the  basis  of  national 
programmes  received  by  the  Commission  in  1993.  A  second  evaluation  of  the 
up  dated  national  programmes/communications  under  the  Convention  is  foreseen 
for  the  fall  of  1995. 

The  four  pillars  constitute  the  first  step  towards  the  goal  of  reducing  emissions  of  carbon 
dioxide.  With 
the  formulation  of  the  strategy  a  continuous  process  has  begun  of 
evaluating  measures  adopted,  and  formulating, new  policies  and  measures  to  attain  the 
carbon  dioxide  objectives  the  Community  has  committed  itself  to. 

4.3.Community  programmes  and  initiatives 

This  section  describes  the  Community  programmes  for  support  of  energy  technology 
sources 
(SAVE), 
(THERMIE),  energy  efficiency 
(ALTENER)  and  the  initiative  "Energy  Management  at  Regional  and  Urban 
level". 
Moreover,  a  brief  description 
is  included  of  the  recent  initiative  on  trans-European 
networks  and  of  voluntary  schemes. 

renewable  energy 

the  use  of 

THERMIE  (Energy  Technology  Support  Programme) 
impacts  through  energy  efficiency,  as  well  as  the 
The  abatement  of  environmental 
introduction  of  renewables  or  cleaner  ways  of  using  fossil  fuels  ultimately  depend  on  the 
technologies.  The  THERMIE  programme,  Council 
implementation  of  better  energy 
the  demonstration  and  dissemination  of 
Regulation  (EEC)  No.  2008/90,  dealt  with 
cleaner  and  more  efficient  energy  techniques  in  order  to  facilitate  their  widespread 
market  penetration.  THERMIE  also  focused  on  other  Community  objectives:  security  of 
and 
social  cohesion, 
energy 

competitiveness 

economic  and 

improving 

supply, 

20 

employment,  the  single  market  and  cooperation  with  Central  and  Eastern  Europe  and  the 
CIS  (Commonwealth  of  Independent  States). 

The  original  THERMIE  programme  came  to  an  end  in  1994,  although  the  projects 
supported  from  1990  to  1994  are  still  being  monitored  and  promoted.  The  overall  budget 
amounted  to  700  MECU12,  or  140  MECU  annually  (0.2%  of  the  EC  budget).  The  main 
portion  of  the  THERMIE  budget  (85%)  was  devoted  to  innovative  technologies  and 
projects,  which  have  already  passed 
the  R&D  stage,  but  have  not  been 
through 
implemented  on  a  wider  scale  due  to  technical  and  economic  risks.  The  remaining 
portion  of  the  budget  (ca.  15%)  was  spent  on  a  wide  range  of  promotional  activities  such 
as  market  assessments,  monitoring,  documentation,  databases,  workshops,  conferences 
and  training.  To  implement  the  wide  range  of  measures,  the  Commission  has  set  up  a 
network  of  Organisations  for  the  Promotion  of  Energy  Technologies  (OPET)  in  1991, 
consisting  of  49  organisations  from  EC  Member  States  that  are  both  from  the  public  and 
the  private  sector.  The  organisations  assist  in  the  promotion  and  dissemination  of 
innovative  energy  technologies. 

From  1990  to  1994,  726  THERMIE  projects  were  supported.  A  cost-benefit  analysis  of 
the  THERMIE  projects  supported  in  1990-1993,  predicted  that  they  would  lead  to  a 
reduction  in  C02  emissions  of  42  million  tonnes  in  the  Community  (rising  to  more  than 
625  million  tonnes  with  anticipated  replication)  as  well  as  contributing  to  reductions  in 
the  emissions  of  other  pollutants  such  as  acid  rain  gases,  volatile  organic  compounds  and 
carbon  monoxide. 
According 
the 
Commission  every  ECU  spent  in  the  Programme  will  contribute,  on  average  , to  1,617  kg 
of  avoided  cumulative  C02  emissions  compared  to  a  "normal"  energy  technology  using 
fossil  fuels.  This  estimate  is  encumbered  by  the  following  uncertainties: 

to  an  assessment  made  by  the  Directorate-general 

for  Energy  of 

the  supported  projects  may  not  have  been  implemented  as  planned; 
included  in  the  assessment  is  an  estimate  of  the  dissemination  impact,  i.e.  the 

expected  replication  in  other  projects  of  the  technologies  applied  in  the  projects 
supported  by  THERMIE.. 
The  replication  is  estimated  to  be  ca  15  times  the  direct  effect  of  the  supported  projects. 

From  1  January  1995  the  programme  has  continued  as  the  new  Non-Nuclear  Energy 
Programme,  better  known  as  JOULE-THERMIE,  within  the  European  Community's 
Fourth  Framework  Programme  for  Research  and  technological  development  including 
demonstration.  This  new  programme  brings  together  for  the  first  time 
the  research  and 
development  aspects  of  the  JOULE  with  the  demonstration  and  promotion  initiatives  of 
THERMIE. 
The  Programme  is  a  vital  part  of  the  EC's  strategy  for  meeting  the  energy  challenges  we 
face  today.  Building  on  past  successes,  the  JOULE-THERMIE  Programme  will  help  to 

1  MECU  =  1 million  ECU. 

21 

reduce  the  negative  environmental  impacts  associated  with  the  production  and  use  of 
energy,  ensure  lasting  and  reliable  energy  sources,  at  affordable  costs  and  strengthen  the 
technological  basis  of  European  industry. 

SAVE  (Specific  Actions  for Vigorous  Enei^gy  Efficiency) 

The  SAVE  programme  was  adopted  in  October  1991  (Council  Directive  91/565/EEC).  It 
will  terminate  at  the  end  of  1995 .The  objective  is  to  increase  energy  efficiency  and 
thereby  reduce  C02  emissions 
legislation  on  mandatory  energy  efficiency 
standards,  quality  labels,  standardization,  creation  of  infrastructures,  pilot  actions,  training 
and  dissemination  of  information.  By  creating  a  Community  framework,  SAVE  enables 
the  Member  States  to  adopt  energy  efficiency  measures  at  the  national  level.  The  budget 
of  the  programme  is  35  MECU  for  the  period  1.1.1991  -  31.12.1995. 

through 

SAVE  consists  of  three  elements: 

1.  A  programme  of  energy  efficiency  legislation,  aimed  at  removing  institutional 
and  administrative  barriers  to  investment  in  energy  efficiency  and  creating 
standards  for  energy  equipment. 
The  following  directives  have  been  adopted: 
-  Efficiency  of  new  hot  water  boilers  (Council  Directive  92/42/EEC); 
-  Energy 

(Council  Directive 
92/75/EEC).  In  the  framework  of  this  labelling  directive,  an  implementation 
directive  on  energy 
freezers 
(94/2/EEC)  has  been  adopted. 

labelling  of  major  household 

labelling  of  household 

refrigerators 

appliances, 

and 

••  Building  certification,  billing  according  to  actual  consumption,  third  party 
energy 

insulation  of  new  buildings,  boiler 

inspection 

and 

finance, 
management  (Council  Directive  93/76/EEC). 

2. 

in 

infrastructures 

the  creation  of  energy  efficiency 

Financial  Support  for 
Member  States. 
The  programme  includes  projects 
in  areas  such  as:  education  and  training, 
integrated  resource  planning,  third-party  financing,  cogeneration,  monitoring  and 
sectors,  and 
targeting,  energy  efficiency 
introduction  of  Community  legislation  in  Member  States.  The  budget  of  the 
financial  support  programme  is  35  MECU  for  the  years  1991  to  1995.  The  level 
of  support  can  amount  to  50%  of  total  project  costs.  204  projects  have  received 
support  at  a  total  budgetary  cost  of  21  MECU. 

transport  and  building 

the 

in 

3. 

Information  Exchange  Network. 
The  network  involves  a  database  on  energy  efficiency  measures  and  specific 
promotional  activities,  such  as  conferences,  symposia  and  workshops. 

In  the  framework  of  the  programme  of  energy  efficiency 
Directives  are  in  preparation: 

legislation  a  number  of 

Directives  on  appliance  standards  for  energy  efficiency. 

22 

The  Council  adopted  a  Decision 
(OJ  No  L  157)  establishing  PACE,  a 
Community  action  programme  for  improving  the  efficiency  of  electricity  use.  In 
the  framework  of  PACE,  directives  are  being  prepared  on  appliance  efficiency 
standards  for  refrigerators,  electric  motors,  office  equipment  and  commercial 
lighting. 

A  Directive  on  Integrated  Resource  Planning. 

Integrated  resource  planning  for  electricity  and  gas  is  actively  promoted  in  the 
framework  of  the  completion  of  the  internal  market  for  energy.  Utilities  should 
therefore  investigate  supply  side  and  demand  side  management  options  (energy 
efficiency  and  renewables  at  consumer  level)  on  an  equal  footing.  This  requires 
that  utilities  be  able  to  obtain  profits,  not  only  from  selling  gas  or  electricity,  but 
also  from  energy  services  they  provide  in  the  form  i.a.  of  energy  efficiency 

• investments  in  end-use  sectors. 

Labelling  directives  for  washing  machines  and  dish  washers,  and  light  bulbs. 

For  the  SAVE  programme  no  assessment  is  available  on  the  impacts  in  terms  of  avoided 
emissions  of  C02  or  other  greenhouse  gases. 

its  proposal 

The  first  SAVE  programme  terminates  at  the  end  of  1995,  but  energy  efficiency  remains 
a  key  political  area:  for  environmental  reasons,  for  security  of  supply,  and  because  its 
promotion  is  linked  to  important  Single  Market/competitiveness  and  coherent  objectives. 
In 
the 
Commission  proposed  to  incorporate  both  the  Electricity  End  Use  Programme  (PACE) 
and  the  Regional  and  Urban  Energy  management  Initative.  All  these  actions  have 
complementary  goals  and  the  SAVE-II  Programme  provides  a  comprehensive  framework 
for  undertaking  all  these  related  activities. 

for  a  new  SAVE  programme, 

SAVE-II,  (COM 

(95)  225), 

The  following  nine  categories  of  actions  on  energy  efficiency  policy  are  proposed  to  be 

financed  under  the  programme: 

studies  and  other  actions  leading  to  the  implementation  and  completion  of 
Community  energy  efficiency  legislation  and  performance  standards; 
sectoral  pilot  actions  aimed  at  accelerating  energy  efficiency  investments  and/or 
improving  consumer  energy  use  patterns,  to  be  carried  out  essentially  by 

Community  wide  networks; 
targeted  sectoral  pilot  actions  aimed  at  accelerating  energy  efficiency  investment 
and  improving  consumer  energy  use  patterns,  to  be  carried  out  essentially  by 
public  and  private  enterprises; 
measures  proposed  by  the  Commission  or  by  third  parties  to  foster  the  exchange 
of  experience  mainly  through  information  networks  aimed  at  promoting  better 
,  national,  regional  and  local 
coordination  between  Community,  international 
for  exchanging 
activities 
information; 

the  establishment  of  appropriate  means 

through 

23 

an  action  relating  to  the  detailed  sectoral;  monitoring  of  energy  efficiency 
progress  in  the  Community,  in  individual  member  states  and  including  the 
SAVE  programme  itself; 
specific  actions  in  favour  of  greater  cohesion  in  member  sates  and  regions  in  the 

field  of  energy  efficiency  through  support  for  the  creation  of  energy  efficiency 
in  those  member  sates  and  regions  where  energy  efficiency 
infrastructures 

policies  are  not  yet  sufficiently  developed; 

specific  actions  in  favour 

of  energy  management  at  the  regional  and  urban 

level; 
studies  and  other  actions  in  support  of  energy  efficiency  initiatives,  within  other 
programmes  or  aimed  at  establishing  energy  efficiency  as  a  criterion  within  EC 
strategic  programmes;  and 
evaluation  and  monitoring  of  the  actions  undertaken. 

SAVE-II  is  scheduled  to  begin  on  1 January  1996  and  will  run  until  31  December  2000. 

The  proposed  budget  is  150  MECU. 

ALTENER  (Programme  for the  Promotion  of  Renewable  Energy  Sources) 
The  ALTENER  programme  was  adopted  by  the  Council  in  September  1993  (Council 
Decision  93/500/EEC).  The  overall  purpose  is  to  establish  a  framework  for  specific 
actions  whose  objective  is  a  greater  market  penetration  of  renewable  energy  sources 
(small  hydroelectric  plants,  wind  power,  solar  energy,  biomass,  biofuels  and  biogas, 
geothermal  energy).  The  programme  runs  from  1993  until  1997  and  has  a  budget  of 
MECU  40.  So  far  114  pilot  projects  have  been  supported  at  a  cost  of  MECU  11. 

Specific  objectives  for  the  development  of  renewable  energy  sources  in  the  Member 
States,  as  set  out  in  ALTENER  are: 

increasing  the  market  share  of  renewable  energy  sources  from  4%  in  1991  to 
8%  in  2005; 
tripling  the  production  of  electricity  from  renewable  energies; 
securing  a  5%  market  share  of  biofuels  in  motor  vehicle  consumption. 

Similar  to  SAVE,  ALTENER  has  the  following  elements: 

the 

In  preparation:  legislative  and  standardization  measures. 
Standardization  measures  are  geared  at  ensuring 
free  circulation  of 
renewable  energy  equipment.  Envisaged  are  a  harmonization  of  safety  standards 
for  wind  generators  and  specifications  for  biodiesel  as  motor  fuel. 
Financial  support  programme  for  the  development  of  technical  standards  and 
information  activities,  sectoral  pilot  projects, 
specifications, 
biofuels,  integrated  resource  planning  and  demand-side  management,  third  party 
finance,  the  guarantee  of  financial  risks,  local  development  plans  and  feasibility 
studies.  In  1993  and  1994,  a  total  of  114  projects  have  been  supported. 
Information  Exchange  Network. 

training  and 

24 

include:  coordination  of  national, 
Information  and  promotional  activities 
Community  and  international  activities,  symposia,  conferences  and  workshops 
and  databases. 

For  the  ALTENER  programme  no  assessment  is  available  on  the  impacts  of  the 
programme  in  terms  of  avoided  emissions  of  C02  or  other  greenhouse  gases. 

Energy  management  at regional  and Urban level 

This  initiative,  initiated  in  1990,  promotes  studies  on  the  definition  and  implementation 
of  energy  plans.  It  further  aims  to  disseminate  and  transfer  the  expertise  in  this  field 
throughout  the  Union.  A  fundamental  goal  of  local  and  regional  projects  undertaken  in 
is  to  protect  the  environment  by  developing  energy 
the  context  of 
and  by  providing  alternative  energy 
management, 
production  options.  The  initiative,  with  a  total  budget  of  20  MECU  will  be  incorporated 
in the  SAVE-II  programme. 

improving  energy  efficiency, 

initiative 

the 

fuel  with 

to  cleaner 

In preparation:  Trans-European  networks 
Switching 
lower  carbon  content  can  produce  energy  and 
environmental  benefits,  especially  in  those  regions  where  due  to  infrastructure  limitations 
fuels  such  as  natural  gas  had  been  unavailable  in  the  past.  Trans-European  networks  have 
a  crucial  role  to  play  in  bringing  cleaner  fuel  to  peripheral  regions  as  well  as  in 
improving  the  flexibility  of  the  European  gas  supply  system.  The  more  efficient  and 
flexible  these  networks  can  be  operated,  the  less  reason  exists  for  security  of  supply 
concerns  in  the  case  of  a  rapid  switch  to  natural  gas.  The  same  applies  for  trans-
from 
European  electricity  networks  which  support  the  use  of  electricity  produced 
low/zero  carbon  sources  throughout  the  Community. 

Voluntary  schemes 
Limitation  of  C 02  and  other  greenhouse  gases  requires  the  active  involvement  and 
participation  of  all  economic  and  social  actors.  Voluntary  schemes  and  auto  regulation 
will  have  to  play  an  important  role  in  the  future.  The  Commission  has  recently  given  a 
mandate  to  CEN/CENELEC  (an  international  body  for  standardization  in  the  electricity 
field)  to  elaborate  European  Standards  in  the  field  of  thermal  solar  systems  and  their 
components.  Likewise,  standards  are  being  elaborated  concerning  photovoltaics  and  wind 
turbines.  The  dissemination  of  cost-effective  minimum  standards  is  beneficial  in  both 
energy  and  environmental  terms.  Commission  services  have  also  been  collaborating  with 
the  European  Electricity  Supply  Industry  to  find  cost-effective  ways 
to  limit  C02 
emissions  through  electricity  related  supply  and  demand  side  options. 

Moreover,  negotiations  are  underway  for  a  voluntary  labelling  programme  concerning 
energy  efficiency  of  computer  and  other  office  equipment.  This  voluntary  scheme,  which 
could 
the  USA  and  Japan,  would  provide  for  a  quasi 
worldwide  labelling  scheme. 

include  manufacturers  from 

25 

4.4.  The  proposal  for an energy/carbon  tax 

In  June  1992,  the  European  Commission  proposed  a  draft  Directive  (COM(92)226  final) 
for  the  introduction  of  a  tax  on  all  energy  products,  excluding  renewables,  based  50%  on 
energy  content  and  50%  on  carbon  content  of  fuels.  The  objective  was  to  improve  energy 
efficiency  and  favour  fuel  substitution  towards  products  emitting  less  or  no  C02. 

It  was  proposed  to  introduce  the  tax  in  steps,  starting  at  a  rate  of  0.21  ECU/GJ  and  2.81 
ECU/t  C02  in  the  first  year  (equivalent  to  $3  per  barrel  of  oil).  In  each  of  the  following 
seven  years  these  rates  were  to  be  increased  by  one  third  of  the  tax  rates  of  the  initial 
year.  In  the  last  year  these  rates  would  therefore  have  reached  0.7  ECU/GJ  and  9.4 
ECU/t  C02,  equivalent  to  $10  per  barrel. 

Concerning  electricity,  the  inputs  in  power  stations  would  be  taxed  according  to  the 
carbon  content  of  the  fuels  used.  As  regards  the  energy  part,  the  tax  would  be  fixed  in 
terms  of  ECU  per  MWh.  Raw  materials,  i.e.  energy  sources  used  as  feedstocks,  would 
not  be  taxed. 

Graduated  reductions  and  conditional  exemptions  of  the  tax  were  to  be  applied  for 
energy  intensive  firms.  The  reductions  would  depend  on  the  share  of  energy  costs  in  total 
value  added  of  the  products  obtained  using  the  energy.  Full  exemption  of  the  tax  would 
be  reserved  for  those  firms  which  use  energy-intensive  production  processes  and  are  very 
dependent  on  external  trade. 

The  tax  proposal  has  been  estimated  to  lead  to  a  reduction  of  3.8%  of  1990  C02 
emissions  by  the  year  2000. 

Present  status  of  the  proposal 
Unanimous  approval  from  the  Council  is  required  for  adopting  a  fiscal  measure.  At  its 
meeting  at  Essen  on  9  December  1994,  the  Council  has  taken  note  of  the  Commission's 
intention  to  present  guidelines  on  common  parameters  for  those  Member  States  willing  to 
apply  a  C02/energy  tax.  As  a  follow-up  of  these  Conclusions  the  Commission  decided  on 
10  May  1995  to  amend  its  initial  proposal,  in  order  to  overcome  the  obstacles  raised 
during  previous  discussions  in  Council  (COM  (95)  172). 

The  main  change  proposed  is  that  the  implementation  of  a  harmonised  tax  will  be 
preceded  by  a  transitional  period  during  which  the  Member  Sates,  while  respecting  a 
harmonise  structure,  are  free  to  set  the  tax  rates  product  by  product,  provided  that  the 
improvement  of  energy 
Community  objectives  of 
limiting  C02  emissions 
efficiency  and  fuel  switching  towards  low-  no  carbon  fuels  is  fully  reflected 
in  the 
structure  of  the  rates  applied. 

through 

In  addition,  the  minimum  rates  set  out  in  the  original  proposal  (3  US$/bbl)  are  revised 
(10US$/bbl)  and  become  target  rates  towards  which  the  Member  states  endeavour  to 
make  their  domestic  rates  converge  in  the  medium  term. 

26 

The  Commission  also  considers  preferable  to  refer  as  much  as  possible  to  the  existing 
provisions  of  the  excise  duties  Directives  for  reasons  of  simplification  and  reducing 
administrative  costs.  Of  course  this  approach  does  away  with  the  need  for  certain 
safeguard  clauses  (conditionally  and  temporary  suspension  of  the  tax),  which  are  deleted. 
Moreover, 
firms  should 
encourage  Member  states  to  use  the  revenues  of  the  tax  to  reduce  other  discriminatory 
charges,  particularly  those  on  labour. 

the  competitiveness  of  Community 

to  safeguard 

the  wish 

4.5.  The  monitoring  mechanism 

In  the  Council  Decision  of  24  June  1993  (93/389/EEC),  a  monitoring  mechanism  was 
established  for  Member  States'  anthropogenic  emissions  of  C02  and  other  greenhouse 
gases  not  controlled  by  the  Montreal  Protocol. 

According  to  the  Council  Decision,  Member  States  shall  devise,  publish  and  implement 
national  programmes  for  limiting  their  anthropogenic  emissions  of  C02.  The  programmes 
the  national 
shall  be  periodically  updated.  The  Commission  annually  evaluates 
programmes,  in  order  to  assess  whether  progress  in  the  Community  as  a  whole  is 
sufficient  to  attain  the  stabilisation  objective.  The  second  evaluation  report,  which  covers 
1994-1995,  is  currently  under  preparation.  After  its  finalisation  it  will  be  send  to  the 
Council  and  the  European  Parliament. 

The  Council  Decision  specifies  the  information  the  national  programmes  must  include: 
emissions  in  the  1990  base  year,  inventories  of  emissions  by  sources  and  removal  by 
sinks,  details  of  national  policies  and  measures  contributing 
limitation  and 
sequestration  of  C02  emissions,  trajectories  of  national  emissions  between  1994  and 
2000,  measures  taken  or  envisaged  for  the  implementation  of  relevant  Community 
legislation  and  policies,  and  an  assessment  of  the  economic 
impact  of  the  above 
measures.  The  methodology  for  determining  emissions  and  removals  by  sinks  must  be 
compatible  with  the  methodology  developed  by  the  IPCC.  It  has  to  take  account  of 
developments  decided  within  the  framework  of  the  UN  FCCC. 

to 

respect 

to  other  greenhouse  gases 

With 
the 
Commission  data  concerning  emissions  of  these  gases,  as  well  as  a  description  of  the 
measures  being  taken  or  envisaged  which  will  limit  emissions. 

the  Member  States  should  send 

to 

The  Decision  includes  a  Committee  composed  of  the  representatives  of  the  Member 
the 
States  and  chaired  by  the  representative  of  the  Commission.  Until  mid  1995 
monitoring  committee  has  held  five  meetings.  It  has  approved 
two  documents  ("Content 
and  format  of  annual  inventories"  and  "Methodology  for  the  evaluation  of  progress  and 
for  the  content  of  national  programmes"). 

27 

4.6.  Sectoral  policies 

those  sectoral  policies,  which 

This  section  reviews 
include  specific  environmental 
measures  and/or  contribute  to  the  limitation  of  greenhouse  gases.  Except  for  transport 
policy,  no  assessments  have  been  made  with  regard  to  the  quantitative  impacts  of  the 
policies  on the  emissions  of greenhouse  gases. 

Agricultural  policy 

A  milestone  in  EC  agricultural  policies  in  the  90's  was  the  Common  Agricultural  Policy 
(CAP)  Reform  in  1992.  Some  measures  of  the  CAP  Reform  itself,  that  was  driven 
primarily  by  economic  and  social  considerations,  have  an  impact  on  greenhouse  gas 
emissions.  Next  to  the  reform  a  number  of  agri-environmental  measures  were  adopted,  as 
a  part  of the. so-called  "accompanying  measures". 

Before  the  CAP  Reform,  the  Directive  concerning  the  protection  of  waters  against 
pollution  caused  by  nitrates  from  agricultural  sources  (EEC  676/91)  and  the  Community 
Drinking  Water  Directive  (EEC  778/80)  were  adopted,  with  the  aim  of  reducing  Nitrate 
concentrations  in  drinking  water.  Together,  these  two  Directives  have  an  impact  on  the 
use  of  Nitrate  fertilisers  and  therefore  may  result  in  reductions  of  N20  emissions. 
However,  the  implementation  of the  Drinking  Water  Directive  took  place  before  1990, so 
its  impact  has  mostly  already  been  felt.  Also  before  the  CAP  Reform,  the  European 
Agricultural  Guidance  and  Guarantee  Fund 
(Council 
Regulation  (EEC  2328/91),  that  provided  funds  for,  inter  alia,  measures  to  protect  the 
environment. 

(EAGGF)  was  established 

As  to  the  impacts  of  the  CAP  Reform  itself,  one  of  the  effects  of  the  reform  is  a 
reduction  of  agricultural  prices.  This  reduction  of  prices  makes  the  use  of  mineral 
fertilizers  less  profitable,  leading  to  a  reduction  of  consumption  by  about  a  third.  This 
decreases  the  total  amount  of  N20  emissions  from  nitrate  and  ammonium  fertilizers.  In 
addition,  the  compulsory  set-aside  scheme  (EEC  1765/92)  reduces  the  intensity  of  the 
entire  rotation13.  Moreover,  the  possibility  of  growing  non-food  products  on  set-aside 
land  constitutes  a  positive  link  to  the  reduction  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  helping  to 
substitute  fossil  fuel  by  bio-fuel. 

Regulation  EEC  (2066/92)  aims  to  extensify  beef  production  by  restricting  premiums  to 
maximum  stocking  rates.  The maximum  rate  is  currently  3  Livestock  Units  per  hectare  of 
forage  area,  to  be  reduced  to  2  Livestock  Units  in  1996. This  reduces  emissions  of  CH4 

Intensification  on  remaining  land  will  only  result  if  there  is  an  increase  in  market  price  due  to 
reduced  total  production.  This  price  effect  is  hardly  to  be  expected  since  agricultural  markets  are 
still  regulated  and,  therefore,  continue  to  have  limited  responsiveness. 

28 

from  ruminants  per  ha.  The  Member  States  are  authorized  to  restrict  provision  of  the  beef 
premium  to  those  farmers  who  comply  with  certain  environmental  rules  (EEC  3611/93). 

As  accompanying  measures  to  the  CAP  Reform,  the  regulations  concerning  the  European 
Agricultural  Guidance  and  Guarantee  Fund  (EAGGF)  were  changed,  concerning  agri-
(EEC 
environmental  measures 
2080/92)! 

the  promotion  of  afforestation 

(EEC  2078/92)  and 

The  agri-environmental  measures  are  established  by  zonal  programmes  which  are  set  up 
on  the  Member  State  level.  The  programmes  comprise  the  promotion  of: 

extensive  and  environmentally  sound  production  methods; 
conversion  of  arable  land  into  grassland; 
, reduction  of  livestock  density; 

upkeep  of  abandoned  farmland; 

20  years  set-aside  for  ecological  purposes; 
public  access  to  farmland; 
protection  of  genetic  variety; 
pilot-projects  and  training  of  farmers. 

The  agri-environmental  measures  are  cofinanced  by  the  EAGGF  at  a  rate  of  75%  in  the 
less  developed  regions,  and  at  50%  in  the  other  regions.  The  available  budget  for  the 
1993-1997  period  is  3670  MECU.  The  assessment  of  altogether  214  zonal  programmes 
by  the  Commission  is  still  going  on.  Until  now,  59  programmes  have  been  approved. 

Forestry  policy 

regulations  promote  afforestation 

A  number  of  EC 
the 
contribution  of  forests  to  environmental  improvement.  EC  Regulation  1610/89  on  the 
development  of  forest  in  rural  areas  allows  for  Community  co-financing  of,  inter  alia,  the 
following  measures: 

in  Member  States,  and 

afforestation  and  improvement  of  forests; 
the  creation  of  nurseries; 
reconstitution  of  forests  damaged  by  fire; 
forestry  awareness  campaigns. 

These  measures  are  limited  to  less  developed  areas  and  have  to  be  implemented  in  the 
framework  of  regional  development  programmes  submitted  by  the  Member  States  and 
approved  by  the  Commission.  A  measure  accompanying  the  reform  of  the  CAP  Reform 
is  the  promotion  of  afforestation 
to  an 
improved  environmental  balance  by  establishing  forests  in  agricultural  areas  and  by 
enlargement  of  the  C02  absorption  capacity. 

(EEC  2080/92).  This  measure  contributes 

Financial  aid  is  given  on  a  contractual  basis  to  cover  the  costs  for: 

afforestation  on  agricultural  land; 
income  losses  from  agricultural  land  (20  years); 
upkeep  of  afforestated  land  (5  years); 

29 

investments  on  the  improvement  of  forests  (fire  protection). 

The  measures  are  cofinanced  by  the  EAGGF  at  a  rate  of  75%  for  the  less  developed 
regions,  and  at  50%  in  the  other  regions.  The  available  budget  for  the  1993-1997  period 
is  1260  MECU. 

Indirectly,  measures  designed  to  protect  forests  from  atmospheric  pollution  increase  the 
net  primary  productivity  of  the  trees  and  therefore  increase  potential  C 02  uptake  (EEC 
3528/86  and  2157/92).  Measures  include  regular  surveys  of  forest  conditions  and  pilot 
projects  for  the  improvement  of  knowledge  on  air  pollution  impacts  on  forests.  In 
addition,  Regulation  EEC  2158/92  aims  to  protect  forests  from  fires.  The  measure 
includes: 

the  elaboration  by  Member  States  of  plans  to  protect  forests  against  fire; 

a  Community  information  system  on  forest  fire; 
a  Community  support  for  projects  with  the  aim  of  fire  prevention. 

Transport  policy 

Transport  is  a  major  source  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the  Community.  Behind 
the 
power  generation,  it  is  the  second  most  important  C02  emitting  sector,  before 
domestic  and  tertiary  sector  and  industry.  Presently,  transport  accounts  for  about  one-
quarter  of  total  Community  C02  emissions.  Under  a  business  as  usual  scenario,  C 02 
emissions  from  transport  are  forecasted  to  grow  significantly  between  1990  and  2000. 
This  makes  it  a  key  concern  in  any  strategy  to  combat  climate  change. 

The  transport  sector  in the  EC  is  characterized  by  strong  growth: 

expected  growth  from  1990  to  2000  of  vehicle  kilometres  is  17%  for  passenger 
cars,  26%  for  light-duty  vehicles  and  13% for  two-wheelers; 
air  traffic  in  Europe  (excluding  the  newly  independent  states)  is  expected  to 
grow  by  5.2%  per  year  until  2003,  according  to  the  International  Civil  Aviation 
Organisation. 

In  relation  to  greenhouse  gas  emissions  from  transport,  the  Community  essentially  has 

two  types  of  instruments  at  its  disposal: 

Regulatory  instruments,  i.e.  the  setting  of  emission  or  other  technical  standards 
for  vehicles,  aircraft,  etc. 
Commission  Directive  93/226/EC  defines  a  measurement  method 
for  C 02 
emissions  from  passenger  cars,  but  no  standards  have  been  set  in  this  respect. 
The  Commission  intends  to  present  a  Communication  on  this  matter  in  the  fall 
of  1995.  The  Community  has  made  substantial  progress  in  reducing  other 
transport  related  greenhouse  gases.  Building  on  earlier  legislation,  between  1990 
and  1994  Community  standards  have  been  strengthened  for  NOx,  CO  and  VOC's 
from  road  vehicles.  The  standards  are  legally  binding  for  Member  States.  The 
dates  below  refer  to  the  mandatory  application  of  the  standards  to  all  new 
vehicles  in  the  Community: 

30 

*  For  heavy-duty  vehicles,  Council  Directive  91/542  EEC  of  1.10.1991  reduces 
CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NOx  emission  limits  in  two  steps,  from  1.10.1993  and 
1.10.1996  on. 

*  For  light-duty  vehicles  Council  Directive  93/59  EEC  of  28.6.1993  reduces 

CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NOx  emission  values  from  1994  on. 

*  For  passenger  cars,  European  Parliament  and  Council  Directive  94/12  EC  of 
23.3.1994  reduces  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NOx  emission  values  from  1997  on. 
*  Directive  92/6  EEC  requires  lorries  (85  km/h),  buses  and  coaches  (100  km/h) 
to  be  fitted  with  speed  limiters,  in  part  retroactively.  It  is  estimated  that  this 
Directive  reduces  energy  consumption,  and  thus  C02  emissions,  by  these 
vehicles  by  at  least  5%. 

*  In 

the 

framework  of  Community 

tests, 
Directive  92/55/EEC  sets  minimum  standards  and  criteria  for  emission  tests 
on  all  vehicles.  Given  that  a  large  share  of  emissions  is  caused  by  badly 
maintained  vehicles,  this  Directive  is  likely  to  have  a  significant  impact. 

roadworthiness 

legislation  on 

Fiscal  measures,  to  influence  transport  demand,  modal  choice  and  environmental 
characteristics  of  fuels. 

the 

incentives  to  promote 

The  potential  of  fiscal  incentives  to  promote  environmental  objectives  has  been 
demonstrated  by  the  experience  on  car  emissions.  Various  Member  States  have 
used  fiscal 
introduction  of  cars  that  meet  new 
Community  standards  before  their  mandatory  application,  and  Council  Directive 
92/458/EEC  on  emissions  from  small  cars  set  a  framework  for  such  fiscal 
incentives.  The  levying  of  excise  duties  on  transport  fuels  raises  transport  prices 
and  can  hence  be  used  to  reduce  the  consumption  of  these  products  and  thereby 
contribute  to  a  limitation  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  Council  Directive  92/82 
EEC  sets  minimum  rates  for  excise  duties  on  petrol  and  diesel  fuels  as 
follows14: 
-  ECU  337  per  1000  litres  for  leaded  petrol; 
-  ECU  287  per  1000  litres  for  unleaded  petrol; 
-  ECU  245  per  1000  litres  of  gas  oil  used  as  propellant; 
-  ECU  100  per  1000  kg  for  liquid  petroleum  gas  and  methane  used  as 

propellant; 

-  ECU  245  per  1000  litres  of  kerosene  used  as  propellant. 

So  far,  this  instrument  has  not  been  used  with  the  explicit  view  of  reducing  C02 
emissions  and  other  noxious  emissions  as  the  minimum  excise  duties  at  Community  level 
exist  mainly  with  concern  to  national  fiscal  policies  of  the  Member  states  and  Internal 
Market  requirements.  However,  in  its  report  on  the  bi-annual  review  of  minimum  excise 
duties  on  mineral  oils  for  1993  and  1994,  the  Commission  identified  environmental 

14  Specific  (lower)  rates  are  valid  for  Luxemburg. 

31 

policy  and  C 02  emissions  as  topics 
fiscal  policy. 

that  should  be  considered  in  the  development  of 

The  Commission  is  currently  looking  into  the  problem  of  the  external  costs  of  transport 
and  how  to  internalise  them.  It  is  the  intention  of  the  Commission  to  present  a  Green 
paper  on  this  subject  in  the  near  future. 

With  a  view  to  promoting  the  use  of  renewable  energy  in  the  transport  sector,  the 
Commission  has  made  a  proposal  for  a  Directive  on  excise  duties  on  motor  fuels  from 
agricultural  sources  ("biofuels").  This  proposal  provides  for  a  détaxation  of  biofuels  in 
relation  to  conventional  (petrol  and  diesel)  fuels. 

The  proposal  for  a  carbon/energy  tax  (see  section  4.4),  if  adopted,  will  have  an  impact  on 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  from  transport. 

Under  "business-as-usual"  total  C02  emissions  from  road  transport  are  expected 
to 
increase  by  24.5  %  between  1990  and  2000  (DGXVII,  (Energy):  "Consequences  of  the 
proposed  carbon/energy  tax",  23.10.1992). 
With  regard  to  other  greenhouse  gases  the  projections  are  as  follows: 

emissions  in  2000  compared  to  1990 

CH4 
N20 
CO 
NOx 
NM  VOC 

-  41.3% 
+  237.6% 
-  53.3% 
-  37.1% 
-  52.9% 

Waste  policy 
Concerning  packaging  and  packaging  waste,  the  Council  and  the  European  Parliament 
adopted  on  20  December  1994  a  Directive  (94/62/EEC)  with  the  aims  of  harmonizing 
national  measures  concerning  the  management  of  packaging  and  packaging  waste,  and  of 
providing  a  high  level  of  environmental  protection.  The  measures  aim,  as  a  first  priority, 
fundamental 
the  production  of  packaging  waste  and,  as  additional 
at  preventing 
principles,  at  reusing  packaging,  at  recycling  and  other  forms  of  recovering  packaging 
waste  and  hence,  at  reducing  the  final  disposal  of  such  waste.  Thus  it  will  result  in  a 
reduction  of  C 02  and  CH4  emissions.  The  measures  include,  inter  alia,  an  obligation  for 
Member  States  to  attain,  within  five  years  after  implementation  of  the  Directive,  a  50% 
to  recoverage  rate  of  packaging  waste15.  The  recycling  percentage  must  be  between  25 
and  45%.  For  a  second  five  year  period  new  targets  will  be  established  by  the  Council. 
In 
systems, 
standardization,  maximum  allowable  concentrations  of  heavy  metals,  information  systems 

the  Directive  provides 

for  marking 

identification 

addition, 

and 

15 

Exceptions  are  made  for  Greece,  Ireland  and  Portugal. 

32 

to  harmonize  data  on  packaging  waste  management  between  Member  States,  information 
for  users  of  packaging  and  reporting  requirements  for  Member  States. 

The  Council  of  8  and  9  June  1994  agreed  on  a  common  position  on  a  Council  Directive 
on  the  landfill  of  waste.  The  amended  Directive  contains  an  obligation  for  permitting, 
including  requirements  for  monitoring  and  control  procedures.  The  contents  of  the  permit 
will  have  to  satisfy  "general  requirements  for  all  classes  of  landfills",  among  which  are 
the  taking  of  appropriate  measures  in  order  to  control  the  accumulation  and  migration  of 
landfill  gas.  Landfill  gas  has  to  be  collected,  treated  and  used,  unless  the  competent 
authority  determines  otherwise  after  environmental  evaluation.  This  will  result  in  more 
efficient  management  of  landfills  and  thus  in  a  reduction  in  methane  emissions. 

4.7.  Commission  Working  Paper on the  EU  Climate  Change  Strategy  : 
a  set of  options 

indicated 

Analyses 
that  with  prevailing  expectations  concerning  energy  prices  and 
economic  growth  the  Community  could  fall  short  of  its  C02  stabilisation  commitment  by 
5%  to  8%.  It  was  felt  that  a  more  vigorous  implementation  of  existing  Community  and 
Member  State  was  required.  On  the  request  of  the  Council  the  Commission  prepared  on 
1  March  1995  a  preliminary  analysis  of  the  policy  options  which  the  Council 
should 
consider  for  C 02  limitation  in  the  perspective  of  2005-2010  (SEC  95/288/final). 
From  the  preliminary  analysis  it  is  already  clear  that  a  significant  technical  potential 
exists  to  limit  and  reduce  C02  emissions  beyond  the  year  2000.  If  this  potential  is  to  be 
exploited,  substantive  measures  will  have  to  be  taken:  the  improvement  of  energy 
efficiency  and  the  penetration  of  renewable  energy  sources,  completion  of  the  internal 
energy  market,  a  change  of  transport  modes,  an  upward  review  of  energy  taxes,  a  better 
focus  of  its  R&D  policies,  and  an  intensified  cooperation  with  third  countries.  In 
that  many  of  those  measures  can  be  introduced 
addition,  the  Commission  underlined 
with  a  view  to  achieve  substantial  benefits  in  other  policy  areas,  like  energy,  R&D  and 
transport  as  well  as  growth,  competitiveness  and  employment,  as  already  indicated  in  the 
Commission  White  Paper  of  December  1993. 

In  the  light  of  the  deliberations  on  the  Working  Paper  in  Council  and  the  Decision  of  the 
first  Conference  of  the  Parties  to  the  UN  FCCC  the  Commission  is  currently  elaborating 
on  a more  detailed  analysis. 

4.8.  Summary 

The  following  tables  summarize  the  programmes,  policies  and  measures  described  in  this 
chapter.  A  clear  distinction  is  made  between  programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted 
by  the  Council  (listed  in  Table  4.1),  proposed  by  the  Commission  (listed  in  Table  4.2) 
and  in  preparation  by  the  Commission  (listed  in  Table  4.3). 

33 

Table  4.1. Programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council. 

NamePeriodBudgetDescription 

THERMIE  11990  -  1994  700  MECUFinancial  support  for  clean  energy  technologies 

SAVE-programmel991  -  1995  35  MECUFinancial  support  for  energy  efficiency  projects 

• 

SAVE-legislationl992  -  ....Energy  efficiency  standards  for  new  hot  water  boilers 
1992  -  ....Energy  labelling  of  major  household  appliances,  Framework  Directive 
1994  -  ....Energy  labelling  of  refrigerators  and  freezers 

Energy  Management  at 

Regional  and  Urban  level 1990-1995  20  MECUSupport  for  energy  plans  at  regional  and  urban  level 

ALTENER-programmel993  -  1997  40  MECUFinancial  support  for  renewables 

Voluntary  agreementCEN/CENELEC  will  elaborate  standards  for  thermal  solar  with  CEN/  CENELEC  systems,  photovoltaics  and  wind  turbines 

Monitoring 1993  -  2000Procedures  to  monitor  progress  towards  C02  stabilisation  target 

mechanism 

CAP  Reform,1992  -  ...Lowering  of  agricultural  prices  reduces  fertilizer  use  and 

price  loweringthereby  N20  emissions 

CAP  Reform,1992  -  ...Compulsory  set-aside  scheme  promotes  growing  of  biofuels 

set-aside  scheme 

CAP  Reform, 1992  -  ....Premiums  are  related  to  maximum  stocking  rates,  reducing 

extensification  ofCH4  emissions  from  ruminants 
beef  production 

34 

Table  4.1. Programmes,  policies  and  measures  adopted  by  the  Council  (continued). 

Name 

Period 

Budget 

Description 

Agri-environmental 

1993  -  1997 

3670  MECU 

measures 

Financial  support  for  zonal  programmes,  incl.  environmental 
measures 

Afforestation 

1993  -  1997 

1260  MECU 

Financial  support  for  afforestation 

Protection  of 
forests  from 
pollution 

1992  -1996 

29.4  MECU 

Measures  increase  net  primary  productivity  of  trees  and 
thereby  potential  C02  uptake. 

Protection  of 

1992  -  1996 

70  MECU 

Measures  contribute  to  C02  uptake 

forests  from  fires 

Emission  standards 
for  heavy  duty 
vehicles 

1993  -

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NO„ 

Emission  standards 

1993 

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NOx 

for  light  duty 
vehicles 

Emission  standards 
for  passenger  cars 

1997 

Fiscal  measures  for 
for  transport  fuels 

1992 

Emission  standards  for  CO,  hydrocarbons  and  NOx 

Minimum  excise  duties  on  petrol  and  diesel  fuels 

Landfill  directive 

1994 

Environmental  standards  for  landfilling  of  waste  contributes  to  limitation  of  CH4  emissions 

35 

Table  4.2.  Programmes,  policies  and  measures  proposed  by  the  Commission. 

Name 

Period 

Description 

THERMIE  II 

1994  -  1998 

Financial  support  for  clean  energy  technologies 

Energy  /carbon  tax 

Tax  on  fossil  fuels  based  50/50  on  energy  and  carbon  content 

Packaging  waste  Directive 

Harmonization  of  national  measures  concerning  packaging  waste,  prescription  of  50% 
recoverage  rate  and  25  - 45%  recycling  rate 

Table  4.3. Programmes,  policies  and  measures  in  preparation  by  the  Commission 

Name 

Description 

SAVE-legislation 

Appliance  energy  efficiency  standards  for  refrigerators,  electric  motors,  office  equipment  and  commercial  lighting 
Directive  on  Integrated  Resource  Planning 
Labelling  directives  for  washing  machines  and  dishwashers,  and  light  bulbs 

ALTENER-legislation 

Harmonization  of  safety  standards  for  wind  generators  and  specifications  for  biodiesel 

Trans  European  networks 

Creation  of  infrastructures  for  transport  of  gas  and  electricity 

Voluntary  agreement 

Voluntary  energy  efficiency  labelling  of  computer  and  other  office  equipment 

C02  emission  standards  for 

New  emission  standards  for  passenger  cars  will  include  standards  for  C02  emissions 

passenger  cars 

Fiscal  measures  for  transport 

Rise  in  minimum  rates  of  fuel  excise  duties,  equalization  of  minimum  rates  of  excise  duties  for  petrol  and  diesel  fuels, 
target  rates  for  gradual  increase  in  excise  duties  on  mineral  oils 

36 

5. 

NATIONAL  REPORTS  OF  THE MEMBER  STATES 

5.1.  Introduction 

The  national  programmes  adopted  by  the  Member  States  are  one  of  the  pillars  of  the  strategy  of  the 
European  Community  to  limit  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  This  chapter  briefly  summarizes 
the 
national  reports  of  the  Member  States  to  limit  their  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  All  Member  States, 
except  Belgium  have  submitted  their  communication  to  the  UN  FCCC.  Information  included  in  their 
national  communications  has  been  summarized  in  this  chapter.  Since  Belgium  did  not  yet  ratify  the 
UN  FCCC,  a  short  description  is  provided  of  its  national  programme  under  the  EC  Monitoring 
Mechanism  for  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gas  emissions. 

In  each  of  the  summaries  of  the  national  reports  of  the  Member  States,  an  overview  is  given  of 
greenhouse  gas  emission  estimates  as  provided  in  the  national  reports.  The  C02  emission  estimates 
correspond  with  total  C02  emissions.  C02  removals  by  sequestering  of  carbon  in  sinks  have  not  been 
subtracted  from  these  total  emissions.  The  estimates  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  provided  in  this 
chapter  do  not  necessarily  correspond  with  the  figures  included  in  the  Annex  to  Chapter  3  "The  EC 
emission  inventory".  The  figures  of  the  latter  have  been  adjusted  according  to  the  draft  IPCC 
guidelines  for  national  greenhouse  gas  inventories  for  reasons  of  comparison.  Besides  estimates  of 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  1990,  projections  are  provided  of  emissions  in  2000. 

Further,  for  each  of  the  Member  States  a  short  description  is  provided  of  the  policies  and  measures 

included  in  its  national  report. 

5.2.  The  Member  States'  national  reports  to  limit  greenhouse  gas  emissions 

Austria 
Austria  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  at  21  September 
199416.  Austria  adopted  as  its  national  target  a  20%  reduction  of  C02  emissions  by  the  year  2005 
compared  to  1988  levels. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.1  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20 
in  Austria  in  1990  and  2000. 
According  to  a  projection  from  as  early  as  1991  ("reference  scenario"),  C02  emissions  are  expected 

National  Climate  Report  of 
the 
obligations  under  Art.4.2.  and  Art. 12  of  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change 
(Federal  Law  Gazette  No.  414/1994).  Federal  Ministry  of  Environment,  Youth  and  Family 
Affairs,  August  1994. 

the  Austrian  Federal  Government, 

in  compliance  with 

37 

to  increase  by  10%  in  the  year  2000  compared  with  1990.  However,  this  scenario  does  not  represent 
all  policies  and  measures  implemented  or  committed  to;  these  are  not  fully  quantified  and  may 
permit  Austria  to  stabilize  its  C02  emissions  by  the  time  period  around  2000  to  2005.  CH4  and  N20 
emissions  are  expected  to  be  at  roughly  the  same  level  as  1990  emissions. 

Table  5.1.Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Austria  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N2Q 

1990 

59,200' 
602.8 
4T 

1  Including  process  related  emissions  (2,100  Gg) 
2 Not  including  process  related  emissions 

2000 

63,7002 
600 
42 

Policies  and  measures 
Austria  established  two  committees  to  develop  an  effective  climate  protection  strategy:  the  Austrian 
C02  commission  and  the  Interministrial  Committee  to  Coordinate  Measures  to  Protect  Global  Climate 
(IMC  Climate).  With  the  last  interim  report  of  the  IMC  Climate,  Austria  adopted  a  comprehensive 
catalogue  of  measures.  This  strategy  includes  the  following  points  of  main  emphasis: 

C02 
Power  production/electricity  supply  industry: 

Fuel  switching  at thermal  powerplants  (e.g.  fuel  switch  to  gas); 

Room  heating  and  water  heaters: 

Mix  of  measures  for  a  tightening  of  building  regulations  and  norms,  introduction  of  an  energy 
coefficient, 
tightening  of  residential  building  subsidies,  co-ordination  of  the  extension  of 
conducted  energy,  priority  for  the  utilization  of  district  heating; 

Renewable  energies: 

Full  utilization  of  the  potentials  of  energy  use  through  renewable  fuels  (wind,  biogas,  sewage 
gas,  landfill  gas,  biomass,  sun); 

Combined  heat  and  power  plants: 

Large-scale  replacement  of  thermal  power  plants  without  heat  utilization  by  those  by  CHP; 

Traffic: 

Comprehensive  catalogue  of  measures  (extension  of  infrastructure  for  combined  carriage,  traffic 

organization,  R&D,  fleet  fuel  consumption,  regulations); 

Economie  instruments: 

Introduction  of  a  comprehensive  energy  and  C02  levy  with  due  consideration  for  international 
competitiveness. 

CH4 
A  draft  ordinance  on  landfills  has  been  drawn  up  to  promote  the  energy  utilization  of  landfill  gas. 
Research  and  development  is  being  carried  out  on  the  economically  feasible  use  of  biogas. 

N20 
Biological  farming  is  being  promoted.  Requirements  promote  the  targeted  use  of 
to  a  further  reduction  in  N20  emissions. 

fertilizers,  leading 

Belgium 

Belgium  did  not  yet  ratify  the  UN  FCCC.  At  its  Council  of  Ministers  (6  June  1991),  Belgium 
committed  itself  to  achieve  a  C02  emission  reduction  of  5%  by  2000  compared  to  1990.  In  June 
1994,  it  submitted  its  national  programme  under  the  EC  Monitoring  Mechanism17. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
C02  emissions  in  Belgium  amounted  to  114  410  Gg  in  1990.  The  inventory  was  carried  out  using  the 
CORINAIR  methodology  which  was  adjusted  according  to  the  draft  IPCC  guidelines  for  national 
greenhouse  gas  inventories.  If  the  total  package  of  (proposed)  policies  and  measures  is  implemented, 
Belgium  expects  to  be  able  to  reduce  C02  emissions  by  8-9%  by  the  year  2000  compared  to  1990. 
This  estimate  assumes 
is  based  on  a 
the  application  of  a  European  carbon/energy 
standardization  of  temperature  in  2000  compared  to  1990. 

tax  and 

Policies  and  measures 

The  Belgium  national  programme  includes  various  measures  and  policies  to  address  climate  change. 
It  includes  measures  already  adopted  by  Government  as  well  as  proposed  measures.  Regarding 
energy,  these  measures  include  the  establishment  of  cooperation  between  the  authorities,  the  business 
community  and  the  energy  distributors,  a  more  efficient  electricity  production,  promotion  of  the  use 
of  renewable  energy,  the  increased  use  of  natural  gas  and  investments  to  reduce  energy  electricity 
demand.  Structural  modifications  are  taken  in  the  iron  and  steel  sector  to  reduce  energy  consumption. 
Initiatives  are  taken  in  the  tax  system  to  promote  an  energy  friendly  behaviour.  The  Belgium 
Government  established  at  1  August  1993,  an  energy  tax  based  on  the  European  proposals  for  an 
energy/C02  tax.  Other  measures  are  speed  limits  on  roads  and  motorways,  transport  plans  for 
personnel 
information  and  awareness-raising 
activities  and  promotion  of  research.  Belgium  also  participates  in  THERMIE,  SAVE,  PACE  and 
ALTENER. 

in  companies,  promotion  of  the  public 

transport, 

17 

Belgian  National  Reduction  Programme  C02  emissions.  Under 
the  "Council  Decision 
concerning  a  mechanism  of  monitoring  of  C02  emissions  and  other  greenhouse  gases  in  the 
Community".  June  1994. 

39 

Denmark 
Denmark's  national  communication18  was  submitted  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  in  August 
1994.  The  national  C02  target  of  Denmark  is  to  achieve  an  emission  reduction  of  20%  of  emissions 
from  energy-use  by  the  year  2005  compared  to  1988.  Sectoral  C02  targets  have  been  set  for  the 
energy  sector  and  the  transport  sector.  Apart  from  the  national  targets,  Denmark  has  committed  itself 
to  stabilize  emissions  at  the  1990  level  in  2000  within  the  framework  of  the  Climate  Convention,  as 
well  as  to  achieve  a  5%  reduction  of  C02  emissions,  as  a  contribution  to  the  objective  of  stabilising 
C02  emissions  in  the  Community  as  a whole  by  the  year  2000. 

Emissions  in  1990,  2000  and  2005 
Table  5.2  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Denmark  in  1990,  2000  and  2005. 
According  to  Denmark's  projections,  the  national  C02  target  for  the  year  2000  is  most  likely  to  be 
achieved.  A  C02  emission  reduction  of  approximately  8%  is  expected  by  the  year  2000  compared  to 
1990  levels.  This  estimate  is  based  on  a  situation  with  net  zero  electricity  import,  in  both  the  target 
year  and  the  base  year.  The  projected  C02  emission  reduction  is  thus  based  on  corrected  1990  figures 
for  fluctuating  imports  of  electricity.  If  imports  become  zero,  or  change  to  exports  (as  happens  in  dry 
years  in  Scandinavia),  emissions  may  surpass  the  1990  level  by  3%  or  more.  CH4  emissions  are 
expected  to  decrease  by  about  13%  by  the  year  2000.  N20  emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by 
10%  by  2000. 

Table  5.2. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Denmark  in  1990,  2000  and  2005  (Gg). 

\mn 

58,353* 
406.32 
10.53 

2nûû 

53,753 
354.2 
11.5 

2QH5 

52,051 
353.5 
12.1 

C02  emissions  are  corrected  for  electricity  import.  Actual  emissions  amount  to  52.053  Gg. 
CH4  emissions  are  corrected  for  electricity  import.  Actual  emissions  amount  to  406.2  Gg. 
N20  emissions  are  corrected  for  electricity  import.  Actual  emission  amount  to  10.3  Gg. 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1 
2 
3 

Policies  and  measures 
Limitations  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  notably  C02,  were  introduced  as  explicit  targets  in  the 
Energy  Action  Plan  and  the  Transport  Action  plan,  which  were  adopted  in  1990.  A  package  of 
measures  to  further  decrease  greenhouse  gas  emissions  was  launched  in  the  action  plan  "Follow  up 
on  Energy  2000",  published  in  November  1993.  The  objectives  of  the  Danish  waste  policy  were 
described  in  the  Danish  Government's  Action  Plan  for  Waste  and  Recycling  1993-1997  (1992). 

Climate  Protection  in  Denmark.  Ministry  of  the  Environment.  Danish  Environmental  Protection 
Agency.  Denmark,  1994. 

40 

Energy 

improvements  in  both  end  use 
The  Energy  Action  Plan  ("Energy  2000")  emphasized  efficiency 
(especially  electricity)  and  energy  supply  (notably  increased  use  of  combined  heat  and  power), 
changing  to  cleaner  fuels  (a.o.  biomass  and  wind)  and  increasing  energy  R&D.  Major  initiatives 
taken  include  inter  alia; 

securing  continued  growth  in  the  market  shares  of  district  heating  and  natural  gas; 
conversion  of  local  district  heating  plants  to  combined  heat  and  power  production  based  on 
natural  gas  or  biomass; 
increased  use  of  rënewables; 
changing  the  taxation  of  electricity  and  fuels  to  a  consistent  system  of  energy  and  C02 
taxes; 
implementation  of  efficiency  standards; 

subsidy  schemes  for  energy  saving  by  industry  and  for  installation  of  individual  metering; 

Transport 
The  transport  action  plan-  promotes  an  efficient  transport  system.  Experiments  are  supported  with 

alternative  public  transport  services. 

Waste 
The  Danish  waste  policy  aims  to  recycle  about  50%  of  the  total  amount  of  waste  generated  in  the 
year  2000.  The  remainder  should  primarily  be  incinerated  and  landfilling  should  be  minimized.  The 
energy  content  of  the  incinerated  waste  will  be  used  to  replace  fossil  fuels.  The  waste  objectives  will 
be  achieved  using  a  series  of  instruments,  such  as  agreements  with  industry  and  local  authorities, 
increase  and  differentiation  of  waste  charges,  and  legislation. 

Forestry 
Regarding  the  forestry  sector,  the  Danish  Parliament  decided  that  during  a  period  of  rotation,  e.g.  80-
100  years,  the  forest  area  should  be  doubled,  leading  to  a  C02  fixation  rate  of  approximately  5%  of 
the  yearly  C02  emission  at  its  highest  level. 

Finland 
Finland  submitted  its  National  Communication19  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  in  January  1995. 
In  its  energy  report  to  Parliament,  the  Finnish  Government  adopted  the  national  goal  of  halting 
growth  in  C02  emissions  form  energy  production  and  use  at the  end  of  the  '90s. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.3.  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Finland  in  1990  and  2000.  C02 
emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by  30%  in  the  year  2000  compared  with  1990.  This  estimate  is 
based  on  the  assumption  that  all  electricity  consumed  in  2000  is  produced  in  Finland.  However,  in 

19  Finland's  National  Report  under  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change. 
Ministry  of  Environment,  January  1995. 

41 

1990  Finland  imported  17%  of  its  electricity  which  is  equivalent  to  11,000  Gg  of  C02  emissions.  A 
reduction  of  about  10%  in  CH4  emissions  is  expected  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels,  while  N20 
emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by  about  20%. 

Table  5.3. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Finland  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

CO,1 
CH4 
N20 

1990 

54,200 
252 
23 

2000 

70,2002 
204 
28 

1 
2 

C02  emissions  from  fossil  fuels  and  peat,  and  from  industrial  processes. 
In  the  projections  of  C02  emissions  in  2000  it  is  assumed  that  all  electricity  consumed  in 
Finland  is  also  produced  in  Finland.  To  compare  these  figures  with  1990  emissions,  it  should 
be  noted  that  in  1990  Finland  imported  17%  of  its  electricity,  equivalent  to  11,000  Gg  of  C02 
emissions. 

Policies  and  measures 
The  main  focus  in  Finland's  climate  strategy  is  to  intensify  already  existing  programmes  to  reduce 
greenhouse  gas  emissions,  such  as  improvements  in  the  efficiency  of  the  energy  production  and 
utilization  system,  and  the  use  of  energy  and  carbon  taxes.  The  Finnish  action  programme  also 
includes  measures  to  enhance  carbon  reservoirs  and  sinks. 

Energy 
Finland  introduced  a  C02  tax  in  1990.  This  tax  favours  low-emission  energy  sources,  promotes 
energy  conservation  and  encourages  the  use  of  renewable  fuels  such  as  biomass  to  replace  fossil 
fuels.  In  1992,  the  Finnish  Government  approved  an  energy  conservation  programme  aimed  at 
rationalizing  end  uses  of  energy  in  individual  sectors.  The  following  targets  of  reducing  specific 
energy  conservation  have  been  adopted  (compared  to  1990  levels):  space  heating  10%, household  use 
15%,  services  15% and  industry  10%. 
Measures  are  being  undertaken  to  promote  the  use  of  biofuels.  The  objective  is  to  increase  the  use  of 
biofuels  by  25%  by  the  year  2005.  Research  on  energy  conservation  is  being  continued  and  new 
energy  technology  development  programmes  have  been  launched. 

Transport 
A  tax  relief  has  been  granted  on  cars  with  catalytic  converters.  A  relatively  high  tax  on  car  purchases 
curbed  the  growth  in  the  car  stock.  Other  measures  include  subsidies  for  public  transport,  investments 
in  the  rail  network,  a  cut  in  the  right  to  tax-deduct  business  travel  costs,  and  a  reduction  in  the 
transport  subsidies  to  industry  in  developing  areas. 

Forestry 
The  forest  and  timber  resources  in  Finland  are  still  growing  substantially.  According  to  the  forestry' 
environmental  programme,  an  annual  increment  of  5-10  million  cubic  metres  is  estimated  to  be 
untouched  by  commercial  exploitation,  as  a  result  of  environmental  protection  goals,  such  as  the 
conservation  of  biodiversity.  The  forest  C02  sink  in  1990  is  put  at  around  31000  Gg  of  C02. 

Other  sectors 
The  Rural  Environment  Programme  approved  in  1992  and  the  agri-environmental  support  programme 
both  include  action  to  reduce  greenhouse  gas  emissions  from  farming  and  greenhouse  cultivation. 
The  waste  management  development  programme  calls  for  a  substantial  decrease  in  the  number  of 

42 

landfills,  which  will  result  in  more  efficient  management  and  thus  in  a  reduction 
emissions. 

in  methane 

France 
France  published  its  national  communication  in  February  199520.  In  parallel  to  the  commitments  of 
the  UN  FCCC  for  developed  countnes  and  the  European  strategy  to  stabilize  C02  emissions  at  their 
1990  levels  by  2000,  France  has  announced  its  commitment  to  maintain  annual  per  capita  C02 
emissions  below  2  tonnes  of  carbon  (7.33  tonne  C02). 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.4.  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  France  in  1990  and  2000.  Energy 
related  C02  emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by  9%  in  2000  compared  to  1990.  Total  annual  per 
capita  C02  emissions  are  expected  not  to  exceed  2  tonnes  of  carbon.  A  relative  increase  is  expected 
of  7.5%  for  net  C02  emissions  in  2000  compared  to  1990.  This  relative  increase  amounts  to  4.4%  if 
these  estimates  are  corrected  for  climate  variations.  CH4  emissions  in  2000  are  expected  to  be  at 
roughly  the  same  level  as  1990  emissions.  A  reduction  of  47%  in  N20  emissions  is  expected  in  2000 
compared  to  1990  levels. 

Table  5.4. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  France  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1990 

367,000 
2,900 
177 

2000 

382,000' 
2,900 
93 

1  Energy  related  C02  emissions.  1990  energy  related  C02  emissions  amounted  to  350,000  Gg. 

Policies  and  measures 
The  French  national  programme  emphasises  the  transport  sector,  since  a  strong  rise  in  emissions  is 
expected  in  this  sector.  Besides,  possibilities  of  reducing  C02  emissions  in  other  sectors  are  limited, 
as  a  substantial  emission  reduction,  amounting  to  26.5%,  has  already  been  realized  in  the  eighties.  To 
a  large  extent,  the  reduction  was  achieved  by  the  nuclear  programme  in  the  electricity  sector. 
Presently,  the  electricity  sector  accounts  for  only  about  10%  of  total  emissions,  much  less  than  in 
other  EC  Member  States. 

C02  -  Energy 
Tariff  policies  changing  the  demand  pattern  for  electricity  will  enable  a  larger  utilization  of  nuclear 
energy.  As  a  general  policy,  the  use  of  (nuclear  produced)  electricity  instead  of  fossil  fuels  is 
stimulated.  For  isolated  locations,  the  attention  is  increasing  for  stand-alone  applications  of  renewable 
energies,  as  an  alternative  to  expensive  connections  to  the  net.  In  the  housing  and  construction  sector, 
information 
energy  end-use  efficiency 

is  stimulated  by  a  programme  of  standards,  labelling  and 

Programme  National  de  Prevention  du  changement  de  climat.  Republique  Française,  Février 
1995. 

43 

dissemination.  Biofuels  are  exempted  from  taxes,  and  the  development  of  technology  in  this  field  is 
stimulated  by  credits. 

C02  -  Transport 
Transport  policies  are  directed  towards  an  increase  of  energy  efficiency,  stimulation  of  transport 
modes  with  favourable  environmental  characteristics  (public  transport,  combined  transport  in  road 
haulage,  electric  cars),  an  improvement  of  the  efficiency  of  transport  infrastructure  (new  technologies 
for  reducing  congestion,  better  coordination  of  transport  by  road,  railway  and  water),  policies  for 
road  haulage  (speed 
increased  enforcement  of  maximum  driving  time  regulations)  and 
limiter, 
technical  measures  affecting  the  efficiency  of  vehicles. 

CO2  -  Industry 
Voluntary  agreements  ("contrats  de  branch")  are  being  discussed  with  companies  in  the  most  energy 
intensive  branches  of  industry.  A  range  of  support  measures  are  already  in  place:  mandatory  energy 
audits  for  industrial  facilities,  financial  assistance  including  R&D  support  and  fiscal  incentives. 

Forestry 
The  objective  of  forestry  policies  is  an  afforestation  of  30.000  ha  per  year. 

CH4 
The  French  waste  policy  is  promoting  incineration,  composting  and  recycling  of  waste  to  limit  CH4 
emissions.  A  tax  on  household  wastes  will  be  increased.  Technical  measures  are  undertaken  against 
gas  leakages  from  networks. 

N20 
Regulatory  action  and  industrial  standardisation  using  the  best  available  technologies  will  decrease 
N20  emissions  from  adipic,  nitric  and  glyoxylic  acid  production.  A  strategy  for  limiting  agricultural 
N20  emissions  is  under  study. 

Germany 
Germany  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  UN  FCCC  in  September  199421.  The  Federal 
Cabinet  of  Germany  resolved  to  strive  for  a  25-30%  reduction  of  C02  emissions  in  Germany  by  the 
year  2005,  in  relation  to  1987  levels. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.5.  provides  details  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  emissions 
in  1990  and  2005. 
Germany's  national  communication  did  not  provide  projections  for  the  year  2000.  CH4  emissions  arc 
expected  to  decrease  by  48%  in  2005  compared  to  the  1990  emission  level,  N20  emissions  are 

in  Germany 

Environmental  policy.  Climate  protection  in  Germany.  First  report  of  the  Government  of  the 
Federal  Republic  of  Germany  Pursuant  to  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on 
Climate  Change.  An  information  paper  from  the  Federal  Environment  Ministry.  September 
1994. 

44 

expected  to  decrease  by  25%.  C02  emissions  are  expected  to  decrease  by  3%  in  2005  compared  to 
1990.  However,  Germany's  national  communication  does  not  specify  which  measures  are  included  in 
this  projection. 

Policies  and  measures 
Germany's  national  communication  provides  an  extensive  list  of  measures.  A  distinction  is  made 

between  measures  that  have  been  approved  and  are  being/have  been  implemented  and  measures  still 
in  the  approval  phase.  Below  a  summary  is  given  of  some  of  the  most  important  measures  already 
approved. 

Table  5.5. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Germany  in  1990  and  20051  (Gg). 

1990 

1,012,000 
6,218 
223 

2005 

—  2 
3,233  3 
167 4 

Germany's  national  communication  does  not  include  projections  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions 
for  the  year  2000. 
Germany's  national  communication  provides  an  estimate  of  980  000  Gg  C02  emissions  in  2005 
(table  6.15,  page  144)  but  does  not  specify  which  measures  are  included  in  this  projection. 
Germany's  national  communication  does  not  provide  this  figure,  but  states  that  CH4  emissions 
are  expected  to  decrease  by  48%  in  2005  compared  to  1990. 
Germany's  national  communication  does  not  provide  this  figure,  but  states  that  N20  emissions 
are  expected  to  decrease  by  25% in  2005  compared  to  1990. 

C02 
CH4 
N ,0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

Energy  supply 

energy  saving  programmes  and  incentives  for  saving  electricity; 
incentives  to  increase  the  use  of  renewable  energy  sources; 
a  support  programme  to  increase  heat/power  cogeneration  (including  tax  breaks)  and  to 
modernise  the  district  heating  network  in  former  GDR; 

Traffic  and  transport 

increase  of  the  mineral-oil  tax; 
investments  in  the  national  transport  infrastructure,  including  long-distance  motorways,  the 
railway  network  and  the  national  waterways; 
information  on  energy-saving  and  environmentally  oriented  driving  habits; 

Buildings  and  structures 

amendment  of  the  Thermal  Insulation  Ordinance  and  of  the  Heating-systems  Ordinance; 
tax  breaks  for  the  use  of  renewable  energies; 
subsidies  for  modernisation  of  heating-systems  and  thermal  insulation  in  the  former  GDR; 

45 

New  technologies 

various  research  programmes  on  environmentally  sound  technologies,  especially  in  the  field 
of  energy; 

Agriculture  and  forestry 

improving  animal  digestive  efficiency; 
conservation  of  existing  forests  and  support  for  afforestation; 

Waste  management 

Acts  and  Ordinances  to  reduce  the  total  amount  of  waste,  to  increase  recycling  of  material 
and  for  better  waste  management. 

Greece 
Greece  published  its  national  communication  in  February  199522.  The  Council  of  Ministers  of  Greece 
accepted  the  stabilization  objective  of  the  European  Community  based  on  a  fair  distnbution  of 
responsibilities  and  burdens.  The  Greek  Government  considers  that  a  realistic  objective  for  its 
national  programme  is  to  restrict  the  total  increase  in  C02  emissions  to  15%  (or  12,400  Gg)  in  2000 
compared  to  1990  levels. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.6  provides  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  Greece  in  1990  and  projected  emissions  in  2000. 
Greek  expects  that  a  successful  implementation  of  its  action  programme  could  reduce  the  increase  in 
C02  emissions  in  2000  to  9,800  Gg  or  12%,  compared  to  1990  levels.  Total  methane  emissions  in 
2000  are  expected  to  be  lower  than  1990  emissions,  while  N20  emissions  are  expected  to  increase. 
The  Greek  national  communication  does  not  quantify  future  CH4  and  N20  emissions. 

Table  5.6. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N:0  in  Greece  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1990 

82,000 
343 
13.7 

2000 

91,800 
NE 
NE 

Policies  and  measures 
The  main  elements  of  Greece's  national  programme  are  the  transformation  of  the  energy  sector  and 
policies  in  the  transport,  waste  and  forestry  sector. 

C02 
Measures  being  taken  in  the  energy  sector  are  aiming  at  energy  conservation  and  the  substitution  of 
fossil  fuels.  Measures  in  the  energy  supply  sector  include:  increased  use  of  natural  gas,  increased  use 

Climate  Change.  The  Greek  Action  Plan  for  the  abatement  of  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gas 
emissions.  February  1995. 

46 

of  renewable  sources  of  energy  (such  as  wind,  solar,  biomass,  hydro  and  geothermal  energy), 
improving  existing  power  station's  efficiency,  promotion  of  combined  heat  and  power,  and  the  use  of 
cleaner  technologies  for  lignite  combustion.  Measures  taken  at  the  demand  side  include  an  evaluation 
of  building  standards  in  force,  the  promotion  of  natural  gas,  renewable  energy  sources  and  co-
generation  in  existing  buildings,  and  interventions  in  the  lighting  sector. 

Measures  taken  in  the  transport  sector  are  replacement  of  old  vehicles,  development  of  public 
the  establishment  of  inspections  and  standards.  In  the  forestry  sector, 
transport  services  and 
reafforestation  programmes  are  on  the  way. 

CH4  and  N20 
Greece  adopted  the  following  measures  to  reduce  CH4  and  N20  emissions: 
promotion  of  the  use  of  biogas  in  controlled  waste  disposal  sites; 
reduction  of  solid  waste  production  by  the  implementation  of  recycling  programmes; 
improvements  of  the  natural  gas  distribution  system  to  prevent  leakages; 
the  adoption  of  a  "Code  of  Good  Agricultural  Practices  for  the  Protection  of  Water", 
addressing  among  others  manure  disposal  and  the  rational  use  of  fertilizers; 
subsidizing  of  ecological  agriculture. 

Ireland 
Ireland  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  UN  FCCC  in  October  199423.  As  a  member  of 
the  EU,  Ireland  is  involved  in  the  achievement  of  the  stabilisation  objective  of  the  Union  as  a  whole 
at  1990  levels  by  the  year  2000.  The  national  objective  of  Ireland  is  to  limit  C02  emissions  so  as  not 
to  exceed  36  988  Gg  of  C02  in  the  year  2000.  This  would  represent  an  increase  of  20%  above  1990 
levels,  or  an  increase  of  11%  if  account  is  taken  of  increased  carbon  sinks  capacity.  According  to 
Ireland's  national  communication,  this  national  target  is  based  on  the  EU  policy  which  recognizes 
that  a  number  of  Member  States,  including  Ireland,  will  need  targets  and  measures  which  will 
accommodate  necessary  economic  growth. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.7  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Ireland  in  1990  and  2000.  C02 
emissions  in  Ireland  are  expected  to  increase  by  20%  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels.  CH4 
emissions  are  expected  to  increase  slightly  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels,  while  N20  emissions 
are  expected  to  increase  by  3%. 

Table  5.7.  Emissions  of  CO,,  CH4  and  NX»  in  Ireland  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg),. 
2ÔÔÔ 

1990 

C O: 
CH~ 
N?0 

30,719 
795.9 
42.3 

36,988 
798.6 
43.7 

Ireland.  Communication  under  the  UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  Prepared 
for  the  Conference  of  the  Parties  in  accordance  with  Article  12  of  the  Framework  Convention 
on  Climate  Change.  Department  of  the  Environment,  Ireland.  October  1994. 

47 

Policies  and  measures 

Ireland's  national  programme  includes  policies  and  measures  in  the  field  of  energy,  transport,  waste 
and  forestry. 

Energy 

Within  the  energy  sector  a  number  of  programmes  are  underway  including: 

promotion  of  more  efficient  use  of  energy  by  consumers  in  the  domestic,  industrial  and 
commercial  sectors,  including  maintenance  and  operation  standards; 
insulation  standards  for  new  buildings; 

the  establishment  of  a  new  energy  body,  the  Irish  Energy  Centre,  to  operate  an  enhanced 
energy  conservation  programme; 
initiatives  under  the  EU  programmes  SAVE  and  ALTENER; 
promotion  of  the  use  of  natural  gas  and  renewables. 

the 

Transport 
transport  sector, 
Within 
Programme  on  Transport  provides  major 
management. 

the  National  Development  Plan  1994-1999  and 

investments 

to 

improve  public  transport  and 

the  Operational 
traffic 

Waste 
A  recycling  strategy  for  waste  has  recently  been  published.  The  potentials  of  CH4 
recovery  from  landfills  are  being  examined. 

Forestry 

Ireland's  annual  target  for  planting  (afforestation  and  reafforestation)  is  30  000  hectares. 

Italy 
Italy  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  at  16  January  199524. 
Italy  complies  with  the  decisions  taken  by  the  EC  on  29  October  1990  to  stabilize  CO;  emissions  by 
the  year  2000  at  1990  levels. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.8  provides  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Italy  in  1990  and  projected  emissions  in  2000. 
Compared  with  actual  emissions  in  1990,  C02  emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by  11%  in  2000,  a 
CH4  emission  reduction  is  expected  of  15%  in  2000  compared  with  1990,  and  N:0  emissions  in 
2000  are  expected  to  be  at  roughly  the  same  level  as  1990  emissions. 

First  Italian  National  Communication 
Ministry  of  Environment,  January  1995. 

to  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change. 

48 

Table  5.8. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Italy  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1990 

392,213 
3,901 
120 

20001 

435,710 
3,300 
119.4 

1  Based  on  "Business  as  Usual"  Scenario 

Policies  and  measures 
Italy's  strategy  to  mitigate  greenhouse  gas  emissions  includes  policies  and  measures  in  the  energy, 
transport,  waste,  forestry  and  agricultural  sector. 

Energy 
The  national  programme  consists  of  packages  of  measures  aiming  at  the  electricity  generating 
industry  and  at  private  production.  Programmes  have  been  set  up  for  thermal  power  stations,  aiming 
at  the  increased  use  of  natural  gas.  Energy  efficiency  is  promoted  by  increasing  combined  heat  and 
power  in  private  industrial  production  of  electricity.  Italy  adopted  various  degrees  to  reduce  energy 
demand  in  the  residential/commercial  and  residential  sector.  A  voluntary  system  has  been  set  up  to 
improve  environmental  management  in  industries. 

Transport 
An  investment  plan  is  being  implemented  to  expand  the  railway  network  and  the  urban  underground 
railway  network.  A  pilot  programme  is  under  way  aiming  at  the  use  of  alternative  fuels  in  urban 
transport  systems.  Tax  exemptions  for  alternative  fuels  are  adopted. 

Waste  Management 
Financial  incentives  are  being  provided  to  promote  differentiated  waste  collection  and  for 
construction  of  waste  disposal  sites.  The  use  of  biogas  from  waste  disposal  sites  is  being  promoted. 

the 

Forestry  and  Agriculture 
Italy  adopted  a  National  Forestry  Plan  in  1987.  This  plan  includes  among  other  incentives  to  promote 
reforestation,  improvement  of  forestry  management  and  research  and  promotional  activities  for  the 
wood  industry.  Several  EU  regulations  have  been  implemented  leading  to  a  reduction  in  the  use  of 
nitrogen  fertilizers. 

49 

Luxembourg 

Luxembourg  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  at  March 
199525.  Luxembourg  adopted  the  national  target  to  reduce  C02  emissions  by  20%  by  the  year  2005  at 
1990  levels. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.9  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Luxembourg  in  1990  and  2000.  C02 
emissions  are  expected  to  decrease  by  33%  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels.  CH4  emissions  are 
expected  to  increase  by  5%  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels,  and  N20  emissions  are  expected  to 
increase  by  3%. 

Table  5.9. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Luxembourg  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

Ï99Ô 

11,244' 
24.6  2 
0.6913 

Including  105  Gg  of  "Nature"  emissions. 
Including  0.802  Gg  of  "Nature"  emissions 
Including  0.091  Gg  of  "Nature"  emissions 

2ÔÏÏÔ 

7,556 
26.1 

0.693 

Policies  and  measures 
Energy  conservation  and  the  promotion  of  renewable  energy  sources  are  important  elements  of 
Luxembourg's  national  programme  of  Luxembourg.  In  1993,  a  law  has  been  adopted  concerning  the 
rational  use  of  energy.  This  law  aims  to  promote  energy  savings  and  the  rational  use  of  energy  in  all 
economic  sectors,  and  to  promote  the  use  of  alternative  energy  sources.  As  yet,  regulations  have  been 
adopted  concerning  the  use  of  renewable  energy  sources  and  cogeneration  for  energy  production.  In 
1991.  the  Agency  for  Energy  has  been  established,  promoting  innovative  and  pilot  projects  in  the 
field  of  renewable  energy  sources,  and  the  rational  use  of  energy.  Structural  changes  in  the  iron  and 
steel  industry  from  conventional  plants  to  electric  arc  furnaces  will  contribute  significantly  to  the 
limitation  of  C02  emissions.  Luxembourg's  national  programme  lists  inter  alia  the  following  measures 
which  have  been  adopted  and/or  implemented: 

Energy 

Transport 

establishment  of  combined  heat  and  power  stations; 
grants  to  promote  investments  in  energy  saving  measures; 

improvement  of  public  transport  and  rail  connections; 
development  of  combined  transport  services  for  freight  transport; 

Rapport  National  du  Luxembourg  en  vue  de  la  Ie  Conference  des  Parties  a  la  Convention-Cadres  des 
Nations-Unies  sur  les  Changement  Climatiques.  Ministère  de  l'Environnement,  Mars  1995. 

50 

development  of  water  transport  by  the  construction  of  a  channel  m  cooperation  with  France 
and  Germany; 

promotion  of  cleaner  technologies  for  buses; 

Industrial  sector 

licenses  for  new  enterprises  include  obligations  for  the  application  of  "best  available 

technologies";  existing  enterprises  need  to  use  best  available  technologies  in  future; 

Domestic  sector 

introduction  of  subsidies  for  insulation  of  housing; 
studies  are  being  earned  out  on  energy  savings  and  the  use  of  renewable  energy  sources. 

The  Netherlands 
The  Netherlands'  national  communication  was  submitted  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  at  21 
September  199426.  The  national  C02  target  adopted  by  the  Netherlands  is  to  stabilize  emissions  by 
1994-1995  and  to  achieve  an  emission  reduction  of  3-5%  by  2000  compared  to  1989-1990.  The  CH4 
emission  reduction  target  is  10%  by  2000  compared  to  the  1990  level  and  the  target  for  N20  is  to 
stabilize  emissions  at  the  1990  level  by  2000. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.10  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  the  Netherlands  in  1990  and  in 
2000  according  to  the  draft  IPCC  guidelines  for  national  greenhouse  gas  inventories.  The  national 
C02  target  is  based  on  another  inventory  methodology.  So,  C02  emission  projections  for  the  year 
2000  calculated  according  to  the  IPCC  methodology  cannot  be  compared  with  the  national  C02 
target.  According  to  the  Netherlands'  projections  (based  on  the  IPCC  methodology),  the  national  C02 
and  CH4  targets  are  likely  to  be  achieved.  A  C02  emission  reduction  of  approximately  4%  compared 
to  1990  levels  is  expected  by  the  year  2000.  This  estimate  is  based  on  temperature  corrected  figures 
for  C02  emissions  in  1990.  Compared  to  actual  C02  emissions  in  1990,  a  C 02  emission  stabilisation 
is  expected  by  the  year  2000.  CH4  emissions  are  expected  to  decrease  by  about  25%  by  the  year 
2000.  The  stabilisation  target  for  N20  emissions  is  unlikely  to  be  achieved:  emissions  are  expected  to 
increase  by  5%  by  2000. 

Table  5.10 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  the  Netherlands  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

26 

1990 

174,000' 
1,067 
59.6 

2000 

167,600 
786 
62.2 

C 02  emissions  corrected  for  temperature  influences.  Actual  emissions  in  1990  amount  to  167,600  Gg. 

Netherlands'  National  Communication  on  Climate  Change  Policies.  Prepared  for  the  Conference 
of  the  Parties  under  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  The  Netherlands,  August 
1994. 

51 

Policies  and  measures 
The  Netherlands'  policy  package  to  address  climate  change  has  been  formulated  in  a  number  of 
memoranda  and  plans  (such  as  in  the  National  Environmental  Policy  Plan  2  and  the  Second 
Memorandum  on  Energy  Conservation)  and  has  been  approved  by  Parliament.  It  includes  a  wide 
range  of  policies  and  measures  in  various  sectors,  primarily  energy,  transport  and  waste. 

C02 
To  a  large  extent,  the  policy  package  for  reducing  C02  emissions  is  directed  at  energy  conservation. 
The  package  consists  of  voluntary  agreements  (especially  with  industry,  including  the  energy  and 
transformation  sector  and  the  energy  distribution  sector),  standards  (especially  for  residential  use  and 
investment,  financial  support  for  renewables  and  energy 
for  buildings),  transport  infrastructure 
to  energy  recovery.  In  selecting 
landfilling 
conservation,  and  reduction  of  waste 
appropriate  instruments,  preference  is  given  to  support  for  'self-regulation',  i.e.  voluntary  agreements. 
This  usually  takes  the  form  of  a  Long  Term  Agreement  between  the  Government  and  intermediary 
organisations,  such  as  branch  organisations.  The  principle  reason  for  the  emphasis  on  voluntary 
agreements  is  the  acceptance  of  measures  by  all  relevant  participants. 

in  addition 

CH4 
Direct  measures  for  reducing  methane  emissions  include  regulations  for  waste  management  and 
improvement  of  gas  distribution  networks.  Agro-environmental  policies  and 
the  Common 
Agricultural  Policy  of  the  European  Community  will  lead  to  a  decreasing  number  of  cattle  and 
manure  production. 

N20 
Specific  policies  whose  aim  is  the  reduction  of  N20  emissions  are  being  studied.  Any  reduction  in 
N20  emissions  is  the  result  of  policies  in  other  areas  than  climate  change,  mainly  the  acidification 
abatement  policy. 

Portugal 
Portugal  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC  at  the  end  of 
199427  Portugal's  strategy  to  mitigate  climate  change  is  "in  compliance  with  its  commitments  as  a 
European  Union  country,  in  accordance  with  the  principle  of  joint  but  different  responsibilities." 
Portugal  adopted  the  national  target  of  limiting  the  increase  of  C02  emissions  to  40%  in  2000 
compared  to  1990. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.11  provides  emissions  of  CO:,  CH4  and  N20  in  Portugal  in  1990  and  projected  emissions  in 
2000.  C02  emissions  from  fossil  fuels  are  expected  to  increase  by  29%  in  the  year  2000  compared 
with  1990  emissions.  Portugal's  national  communication  does  not  provide  projections  for  future  CH4 
and  N20  emissions. 

Portuguese  report  in  accordance  with  Article  12  of  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention 
on  Climate  Change.  Ministry  of  the  Environment  and  Natural  Resources,  Lisbon,  1994. 

52 

Table  5.11. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Portugal  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

1990 

42,148 
227 
10.6 

2000 

54,274' 
NE 
NE 

Relates  to  C02  emissions  from  fossil  fuel  combustion.  1990  C02  emissions  from  fossil  fuel 
combustion  amount  to  38,686  Gg. 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1 

Policies  and  measures 

Portugal's  strategy  to  mitigate  greenhouse  gas  emissions  includes  policies  and  measures 
energy,  industrial,  transport  and  agricultural  sector. 

in  the 

Energy 

The  major  policies  adopted  in  the  energy  sector  by  Portugal  are  in  compliance  with  environmental 
protection  objectives,  aiming  at  an  increase  m  diversification  and  energy  efficiency,  the  use  of  clean 
technologies  and  the  promotion  of  renewable  energy  sources.  Policies  and  measures  include: 

the  use  of  natural  gas  for  electricity  production  and  end  use  (starting  in  1997); 
promotion  of  combined  heat  and  power  in  various  industrial  sectors; 
promotion  of  renewable  energy  sources  for  energy  production; 
improvements  of  efficiency  of  thermal  power  stations; 
promotion  of  rational  use  of  energy  in  all  end  users  sectors. 

Industry 
In  the  industrial  sector,  economic  instruments,  legislative  measures  and  information  campaigns  are 
adopted  to  support  environmental  protection. 

Transport 
Policy  measures  in  the  transport  sector  are  targeted  at  strengthening  the  competitiveness  of  rail 
transport.  Important  investments  have  been  made  in  both  road  and  rail  infrastructure. 

Agriculture  and  forestry 

Policies  and  measures  in  the  agncultural  sector  relate  to  the  Common  Agricultural  Policy  (CAP) 
reform  of  the  EC,  which  is  targeted  at  reducing  incentives  for  agncultural  production.  Support 
measures  introduced  within  the  context  of  the  CAP  reform  lead  to  reduction  in  the  use  of  fertilizers 
and  the  number  of  cattle,  and  thus  to  a  reduction  in  CH4  and  N20  emissions.  Measures  taken  in  the 
forestry  sector  encourage  the  maintenance,  expansion  and  protection  of  forests. 

53 

Spain 
Spain  submitted  its  national  communication  to  the  UN  FCCC  in  September  199428. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.12  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Spain  in  1990  and  2000.  The 
projected  C02  emissions  in  2000  only  relate  to  energy.  C02  emissions  from  fuel  combustion  are 
expected  to  increase  by  24%  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels.  Spain's  national  communication  did 
not  provide  projections  for  CH4  and  N20. 

Table  5.12. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Spain  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N ,0 

1990 

260,655' 
2,129.8 
86.5 

2000 

276,5042 

Total  C O:  emissions.  Spain  included  in  its  national  communication  an  estimate  for  total  net  emissions, 
including  CO;  removals  by  land  use  change  and  forestry,  amounting  to  256,476  Gg. 
Energy  related  C 02  emissions.  Energy  related  C 02  emissions  in  1990  amounted  to  222,908  Gg. 

2 

Policies  and  measures 
The  mam  element  of  Spain's  national  programme  to  reduce  greenhouse  gas  emissions  is  the  1991 
National  Energy  Plan.  Measures  are  also  taken  in  the  industry,  transport,  agriculture  and  forestry 
sector. 

Energy 
The  main  instrument  of  the  1991  National  Energy  Plan  to  address  the  greenhouse  effect 
Energy  Saving  and  Efficiency  Plan.  This  plan  consists  of  four  sets  of  measures: 

is  the 

the  Energy  Saving  Programme  to  reduce  the  final  energy  consumption  without  reducing 
the  economic  activity; 
the  Energy  Substitution  Programme  to  increase  the  use  of  natural  gas  as  an  alternative  to 
oil  and  coal  products  in  industry  and  in  the  residential  and  commercial  sector; 
the  Cogeneration  Programme  to  encourage  combined  heat  and  power  generation.  Projects 
are  especially  aiming  at  energy-intensive  industnes  (such  as  refining  and  chemicals),  and  in 

hotels  and  hostels; 
the  Renewable  Energies  Programme  to  increase  the  use  of  renewable  energy  sources  for 
electricity  generation  and  for  end  use. 

The  1991  National  Energy  Plan  also  includes  measures  in  the  energy  generation  and  supply  sector. 
The  main  measures  in  this  area  are  fuel  switching  to  natural  gas,  and  the  promotion  of  clean  coal 
technologies. 

Report  by  Spain  on  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  Provisional 
Version.  National  Climate  Committee.  Spain. 

54 

Industry 
The  Industrial  and  Technological  Environmental  Programme  encourages  industry  to  meet  increasingly 
stringent  environmental  standards. 

Transport 
State  subsidies  are  granted  to  promote  public  transport.  The  Plan  on  Transport  in  Large  Cities  1990-
1993  aims  to  modernize  public  transport  systems.  Freight  transport  by  rail  is  encouraged. 

Agriculture 
Relevant  agricultural  policy  includes  energy  saving  measures,  the  use  of  biomass  as  an  energy 
source,  information  on  good  farmers  practices  regarding  the  storage  of  manure  and  the  application  of 
fertilizers. 

Forestry 

Cooperation  agreements  between  the  Spanish  Government  and  the  Autonomous  Communities,  which 
already  lead  to  reafforestation  of  63  700  hectares  took  place  between  1990  and  1993.  Further,  efforts 
are  undertaken  to  prevent  forest  fires  and  to  protect  ecosystems  against  pests  and  atmospheric 
pollution. 

Sweden 
The  Swedish  Government  adopted  its  national  communication  on  the  15th  of  September  199429. 
Since  1970,  C02  emissions  have  been  reduced  with  approximately  40%.  The  national  target  adopted 
by  Sweden  is,  pursuant  to  the  UN  FCCC,  to  stabilize  C02  emissions  from  fossil  fuels  in  the  year 
2000  at  the  1990  level  and  to  reduce  these  emissions  after  that.  Furthermore,  CH4  emissions  from 
landfills  shall  be  reduced  by  30% between  1990  and  2000. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.13  provides  details  of  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  Sweden  in  1990  and  2000.  Sweden 
stresses  that  estimates  of  C02  emissions  in  1990  are  based  on  actual  emissions,  and  that  these 
estimates  have  not  been  adjusted  for  temperature  influences.  If  figures  are  adjusted  for  average 
climatic  circumstances,  C02  emissions  in  2000  are  expected  to  be  at  the  same  level  as  C02  emissions 
in  1990.  If  compared  to  actual  emissions  in  1990,  C02  emissions  are  expected  to  increase  by  4%  in 
2000.  CH4  emissions  are  expected  to  decrease  by  10%  in  2000  compared  to  1990  levels,  and  N20 
emissions  by  15%. 

Sweden's  national  report  under  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change. 
Ministry  of  the  Environment  and  Natural  Resources,  September  1994. 

55 

Table  5.13. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH„ and  N20  in  Sweden  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

1990 

61,256' 
329 
15.2 

2000 

63,800 
300 
13 

Actual  C02  emissions.  C02  emissions  adjusted  for  temperature  influences  amount  to  64,000 
Gg. 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1 

Policies  and  measures 
A  concrete  strategy  for  Swedish  climate  policy  has  been  formulated  in  the  "Government  Bill  on 
Actions  to  Counteract  Climate  Change"  of  1993.  The  main  element  of  Sweden's  strategy  is  to  limit 
the  demand  for  fossil  fuels  and  to  increase  the  contribution  of  renewable  energy  sources,  along  with 
improved  energy  management  and  more  efficient  use  of  energy.  Taxation  of  fossil  fuels  is  the  central 
policy  instrument  to  limit  C02  emissions. 

Energy  and  transportation 
Measures  to  improve  energy  efficiency  include  technology  procurement  and  demonstration  of  energy 
electricity  efficient  products,  processes  and  systems  in  homes,  non-housing  premises  and  industry.  In 
1991,  a  C02  tax  was  introduced  as  part  of  a  major  tax  reform,  aiming  to  reduce  taxes  on  income  and 
capital  and  to  increase  environmental  taxes.  Several  programmes  have  been  adopted  to  promote  and 
stimulate  energy  efficiency  and  the  use  of  renewable  energy  sources.  These  programmes  include  the 
programme  for  energy  management  and  promotion  of  biofuels,  wind  power  and  solar  energy.  In  the 
transport  sector,  several  research  and  development  programmes  (concerning  the  use  of  alternative 
fuels  and  hybrid  and  electrical  vehicles)  have  started.  Since  only  5%  of  the  electricity  production  in 
Sweden  is  based  on  fossil  fuels,  the  potential  of  greenhouse  gas  reduction  in  the  electricity  sector  is 
very  limited. 

Forestry  and  agriculture 
Sweden  adopted  various  measures  to  reduce  carbon  releases  from  soils,  e.g.  through  restrictions  on 
forest  site  preparation  operations  and  drainage.  Some  of  the  policies  of  the  new  agricultural  policy 
adopted 
improved  nitrogen 
application  methods,  land  use  change  from  arable  land  to  grazing  grounds  or  forests,  and  increased 
use  of  winter  overgrown  land. 

in  1990  indirectly  effect  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  These 

include 

United  Kingdom 
The  United  Kingdom's  national  communication  was  published  in  January  1994  and  presented  to  the 
Ninth  Session  of  the  Intergovernmental  Negotiating  Committee  (INC)30.  An  executive  summary  and 
minimum  tables  for  greenhouse  gas  emissions  according  to  the  guidelines  for  the  preparation  of  first 

Climate  Change.  The  UK  report.  United  Kingdom's  Report  under  the  Framework  Convention 
on  Climate  Change.  January  1994. 

56 

communications  by  Annex  I  countries  (Decision  9/2,  INC/FCCC,  1994)  was  submitted  in  August 
1994.  The  UK's  C02  programme  is  currently  being  updated  in  the  light  of  new  energy  projections 
published  in  March  1995  and  other  developments  which  have  taken  place  since  the  programme  was 
first  published.  This  update  will  be  available  in  the  autumn  of  1995.  Figures  for  C02  emissions  given 
in  this  document  are  based  on  the  forthcoming  update. 

The  UK  accepts  the  commitment  of  the  UN  FCCC  to  take  measures  aimed  at  returning  emissions  of 
greenhouse  gases  to  1990  levels  by  the  year  2000. 

Emissions  in  1990  and  2000 
Table  5.14  provides  emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  the  United  Kingdom  in  1990  and  projected 
emissions  in  2000  taking  into  account  the  policies  and  measures  in  the  national  programme.  The 
programme  is  expected  to  produce  a  small  reduction  in  C02  emissions,  a  10%  reduction  of  CH4 
emissions  and  a  75%  reduction  of N20  emissions. 

Table  5.14. 

Emissions  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  in  the  United  Kingdom  in  1990  and  2000  (Gg). 

C02 
CH4 
N20 

1990 

580,268 
4,844 
109 

2000 

551,283 
4,400 
30 

Policies  and  measures 
The  UK's  national  communication  "Climate  Change;  the  UK  Programme"  sets  out  measures  aimed  at 
returning  emissions  of  each  of  the  main  greenhouse  gases  to  1990  levels  by  the  year  2000. 

C02 
The  C02  programme  is  based  on  a  national  partnership  approach  drawn  up  after  extensive  public 
consultation,  involving  business,  voluntary,  environmental  and  other  interest  groups.  Measures  are 
spread  across  all  sectors: 

domestic  energy  consumption,  through  measures  which  include  the  introduction  of  taxation 
on  domestic  fuel  and  power,  and  a new  Energy  Saving  Trust; 
energy  consumption  by  business,  including  energy  efficiency  advice  and  information; 
energy  consumption  by  the  public  sector,  through  targets  for  central  and  local  government 
and  public  sector  bodies;  and 
transport,  through  increases  in  road  fuel  duties,  and  a  commitment  to  real  increases  of  at 
least  5%  on  average  in  future  budgets. 

CH4 
Initiatives  are  being  taken  to  encourage  the  use  of  CH4  for  energy  generation  and  reducing  emissions 
from  coal  production.  New  guidance  on  limiting  emissions  from  several  industrial  sectors  is  also 
being  prepared. 

57 

N20 
An  75%  reduction  is  expected  by  2000  compared  to  1990  levels,  mainly  through  the  reduction  of 
nitrous  oxide  emissions  from  nylon  manufacture. 

5.3.  Summary 

ratified 

submitted 

the  UN  FCCC  and 

their  national 
All  Member  States,  except  Belgium, 
communications  to  the  secretariat  of  the  UN  FCCC.  Besides  the  commitments  of  the  UN  FCCC, 
most  of  the  Member  States  adopted  also  national  targets  to  reduce  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  varying 
in  objectives  and  time  scales.  All  Member  States,  except  Belgium,  carried  out  inventories  of  C02, 
CH4  and  N20  emissions  in  1990.  Belgium  provided  estimates  of  C02  emissions  in  1990.  Estimates 
for  emissions  in  1990  provided  in  the  national  reports  are  not  always  comparable.  In  general,  the 
draft  IPCC  guidelines  for  national  greenhouse  gas  inventories  have  been  used,  while  some  countries 
base  their  estimates  on  CORINAIR.  Some  countries  apply  conection  factors  to  adjust  for  temperature 
influences  or  for  imported/exported  electricity. 

Most  of  the  Member  States  provided  projections  of  C02,  CH4  and  N20  emissions  in  2000.  Important 
to  note  is  that  projections  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions  included  in  the  national  reports  are  not 
comparable  and  cannot  be  added  together.  The  projections  included  in  the  national  reports  have  been 
compiled  using  various  modelling 
the 
representation  of  measures  and  policies.  Some  Member  States  have  only  estimated  fuel  related  C02 
emissions  in  2000,  and  one  Member  State  projected  emissions  in  2005  instead  of  2000.  Further,  the 
projections  do  not  always  only  take  account  of  adopted  measures,  but  include  proposed  measures  as 
well. 

input  assumptions,  sources  projected,  and 

tools,  key 

8  Member  States  expect  an  increase  in  C02  emissions  in  2000  compared  to  1990:  Austria,  Finland, 
France,  Greece,  Ireland,  Italy,  Portugal,  and  Spain.  1 Member  State  expects  to  reach  a  stabilisation  of 
C02  emissions  in  1990:  Sweden3'  and  5  Member  States  are  expecting  a  decrease  in  C02  emissions  in 
2000:  Belgium,  Denmark32,  Luxembourg,  the  Netherlands33  and  the  United  Kingdom.  Germany 
provides  a  projection  for  C02  emissions  in  2005  and  expects  a  C02  emission  reduction  by  that  year. 

11  Member  States  provided  projections  of  CH4  and  N20  emissions  in  2000.  2  of  them  expect  an 
increase  in  CH4  emissions:  Ireland  and  Luxembourg;  Another  2  expect  a  stabilization:  Austria  and 
France.  The  remaining  7  Member  States  expect  a  reduction  in  CH4  emissions:  Denmark,  Finland, 
Greece,  Italy,  the  Netherlands,  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom. 

31 

If  based  on  temperature  corrected  C 02  emissions  in  1990.  If  projected  figures  are  compared  with  actual  C O: 
emissions  in  1990,  an  increase  in  C 02  emissions  of  4%  is  estimated. 

If  based  on  C 02  emissions  in  1990  which  have  been  corrected  for  electricity  import  fluctuations.  If  projected 
figures  are  compared  with  actual  C 02  emissions  in  1990,  an  increase  in  C 02  emissions  of  3%  is  estimated. 

If  based  on  temperature  corrected  C O;  emissions  in  1990.  If  projected  figures  are  compared  with  actual  C O: 
emissions  in  1990,  C 02  emissions  are  estimated  to  stabilize. 

58 

increase 

6  Member  States  expect  an 
Ireland, 
Luxembourg  and  the  Netherlands  while  2  Member  States  expect  a  stabilization:  Austria  and  Italy; 
and  3  other  Member  States  expect  a  reduction  in  N20  emissions:  France,  Sweden  and  the  United 
Kingdom.  Germany  provided  projections  for  2005  and  expects  a  reduction  in  both  CH4  and  N20 
emissions. 

in  N20  emissions:  Denmark,  Finland,  Greece, 

59 

PROJECTIONS  OF  CO,  EMISSIONS  IN  2000 

6.1.Introduction 

This  chapter  provides  first  estimates  of  projections  of  future  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  the 
European  Community.  As  a  first  attempt  to  arrive  at  greenhouse  gas  emission  projection,  several 
scenarios  have  been  applied.  These,  as  well  as  the  modelling  techniques  used,  are  described  in 
section  6.2.  Section  6.3  provides  estimates  of  C02  emissions  in  1990,  2000  and  2020. 
The  1990  figures  presented  in  this  section  differ  from  the  figures  provided  in  the  1990  EC  emission 
inventory  given  in  chapter  3,  since  they  are  estimated  using  the  same  methodology  as  has  been  used 
for  the  2000,  2010  and  2020  figures.  The  1990  figures  presented  here  are  only  provided  to  show  the 
trend  in  C02  emissions  in  the  European  Community. 

It  should  be  stressed  that  the  simulations  descnbed  in  this  chapter  are  not  official  simulations  to 
assess  the  impact  of  climate  change  policies  in  the  EC.  The  results  of  the  simulations  are  provided  as 
a  first  indication  of  future  EC  greenhouse  gas  emission.  Further  work  is  being  undertaken  to  develop 
more  accurate  modelling  tools  and  scenarios. 

The  models  and  scenarios  used  to  arrive  at  the  projections  for  future  EC  emissions  differ,  in  structure 
and  in  assumptions  with  regard  to  exogenous  variables,  from  the  models  and  scenarios  used  by 
Member  States  to  forecast  their  C02  emissions  (see  Chapter  5).  Results  are  therefore  not  comparable. 

Estimates  of  the  effects  of  policies  and  measures  on  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  if  available,  have 
been  provided  in  chapter  4. 

6.2.Modelling  techniques  and  scenarios 

The  projections  of  future  EC  greenhouse  gas  emissions  provided  in  this  chapter  are  based  on  the  EC 
model  MIDAS  (Model  Integrating  Demand  and  Supply)  and  various  scenarios,  which  differ  in 
assumptions  with  regard  to  exogenous  variables.  Below,  a  short  desenption  of  MIDAS  and  the 
various  scenarios  is  provided.  Annex  2 provides  a more  detailed  outline  of  the  scenarios  applied. 

MIDAS  (Model  Integrating  Demand  and Supply) 
Funded  by  the  EC  JOULE  programme,  the  large  scale  energy  system  planning  and  forecasting  model 
MIDAS  (Model  Integrating  Demand  and  Supply)  has  been  developed.  MIDAS  performs  a  dynamic 
simulation  of  the  energy  system,  which  is  represented  by  combining  engineering  process  analysis  and 
econometric  formulations.  The  model  is  used  for  scenario  analysis  and  forecasting.  An  econometric 
top-down  approach  has  been  combined  with  a micro-economic  approach. 

MIDAS  covers  the  whole  energy  system,  including  energy  demand  by  sector  and  fuel,  power 
generation,  oil  refinenes,  natural  gas,  solid  fuels  production,  imports  and  energy  market  prices.  The 

6c 

model  ensures,  on  an  annual  basis,  the  consistent  and  simultaneous  projection  of  energy  demand, 
energy  supply,  energy  pricing  and  costing,  so  that  the  system  is  in  a  quantity  and  price-dependent 
balance.  On  the  basis  of  exogenous  projections  of  import  prices,  macroeconomic  indicators  and 
the  necessary  capacity 
resource  availability,  MIDAS  forecasts  energy  demand  and  computes 
expansion  and  operation  of  the  supply  sectors  to  meet  demand  and  their  mutual  energy  exchanges. 
The  model  evaluates  the  energy  production  costs  by  sector  and  fuel  and  determines  consumer  prices, 
by  considering  also  international  energy  prices,  the  national  pricing  policy  and  the  government  tax 
policy.  Consumer  prices  are  feeding  again  the  demand  sub-model  that  re-adjusts  demand  projections 
and,  therefore,  supply  activities.  Thus,  a  closed-loop  iteration  is  established  which  converges  on  an 
annual  basis  to  provide  a  consistent  simulation  of  energy  demand,  supply  and  prices.  Emission 
factors  per  plant  and  fuel  are  incorporated  in  the  model  to  calculate  emissions. 

scenario  denotes 

the  "business  as  usual"  world, 

Conventional  Wisdom  scenario 
The  Conventional  Wisdom 
representing  a 
conventional  wisdom  view  of  the  most  likely  evolution  of  events.  Economic  growth  gradually 
weakens  in  the  long  term.  The  GDP  growth  rates  in  the  EC  are  expected  to  decrease  from  2.9%  in 
the  period  1995-2000  to  1.8%  in  the  penod  2015-2020.  Energy  policy  remains  fragmented,  the  result 
of  unresolved  conflicting  objectives  for  competitiveness,  environment,  security  of  supply  and 
differing  national  aims.  Some  penetration  of  new,  more  efficient  demand  and  supply  technologies  is 
expected.  Regarding  energy  demand  issues,  continuation  of  current  actions  with  some  concern  on 
increasing  efficiency  is  expected.  Energy  prices  are  increasing  smoothly.  Gas  prices  are  relatively 
low  compared  to  oil  prices,  due  to  deregulation  and  growing  networks.  The  development  of  energy 
prices  can  be  found  in  Table  6.1. 

Table  6.1. 

Primary  energy  prices  (in  constant  1993  prices  and  exchange  rates).  Conventional 
Wisdom  Scenario. 

Crude  oil 
(ECU/toe) 

188.1 
128.5 
153.3 
182.5 
211.7 
219.0 
226.3 

Natural  Gas 
N.  Europe 
(ECU/toe) 
101.5 
91.5 
123.6 
139.9 
158.3 
161.8 
167.2 

Natural  Gas 
S.  Europe 
(ECU/toe) 
111.6 
100.6 
133.5 
148.2 
164.6 
164.9 
167.2 

Steam Coal 
(ECU/toe) 

65.0 
54.8 
60.0 
63.0 
64.0 
68.0 
75.0 

1990 
1995 
2000 
2005 
2010 
2015 
2020 

the  world 

scenario 
instabilities 

Battlefield  scenario 
isolation,  power  blocs  and  protectionism. 
In 
the  Battlefield 
Contradictions  and 
in  the  global  system  make  economic  integration  very  difficult. 
Globalization  is  seen  as  too  ambitious.  The  geopolitical  system  fragments  into  blocs,  with  tensions 
and  friction  between  and  within  blocs.  The  GDP  growth  rates  in  the  EC  are  expected  to  decrease 
from  3.1%  in  the  period  1995-2000  to  1.3  in  the  period  2015-2020.  Energy  policies  are  aimed  at 
reducing  import  dependency.  Supply  side  measures  are  likely  to  be  more  successful  than  demand 

reverts 

to 

61 

inhibit 
side  measures.  In  spite  of  attempts  to  introduce  alternative  fuels, 
efficiency  gains.  The  increasing  dependency  on  fewer  major  suppliers  leads  to  an  oil  pnce  shock. 
Some  penetration  of  new,  more  efficient  demand  and  supply  technologies  is  expected,  partly  driven 
by  public  standards  and  partly  through  industnal  competitiveness. 

tension  and  conflict 

Forum  scenario 

for  collective  public  action.  National,  European  and 

In  Forum,  the  world  moves  more  to  consensus  and  cooperative  international  structures  with  a  strong 
role  for  public  administration  and  intervention.  The  process  of  global  integration  produces  new 
imperatives 
institutions  are 
gradually  restructured  so  as  to  be  able  to  deal  more  effectively  with  broader,  more  complex  shared 
problems  and  interests.  The  GDP  growth  rate  in  the  EC  increases  from  2.3%  in  the  penod  1995-2000 
to  2.6%  in  the  period  2010-2015  and  decreases  somewhat  after  that  period.  Energy  policies  are  most 
significantly  affected  by  concern  for  the  environment.  Major  policy  shifts  are  expected  through 
reinforced  environmental  concerns,  limiting  energy  demand  growth.  Energy  prices  are  expected  to  be 
stable.  A  strong  penetration  of  more  efficient  demand  and  supply  technologies  will  occur,  which  will 
go  together  with  a  high  level  of  technology  transfer. 

international 

Hypermarket  scenario 
In  the  Hypermarket  scenario,  the  predominant  themes  are  market  forces,  liberalism  and  free  trade; 
there  is  a  minimum  of  intervention  from  government  and  public  administrators.  Global  economic 
integration  is  self-reinforcing  and  continues.  The  force  driving  this  scenario  is  continued  application 
of  the  market  mechanism  which  is  seen  as  the  best  way  to  produce  wealth  and  handle  complexity 
and  uncertainty.  Liberalization  and  privatization  deliver  results  and  produce  new  market  entrants  who 
demand  more  of  the  same.  The  GDP  growth  rates  in  the  EC  are  expected  to  decrease  from  3.2%  in 
the  period  1995-2000  to  1.9%  in  the  penod  2015-2020.  Energy  policy  is  driven  by  the  desire  to 
minimise  government  control  and  maximise  efficient  operations  of  free  markets,  nonetheless 
achieving  desired  standards.  A  strong  growth  in  energy  demand  is  expected.  Penetration  of  new, 
international 
more  efficient  demand  and  supply 
competition.  Energy  prices  are  increasing  smoothly. 

technologies  depends  on  market 

forces  and 

6.3.Trends  in  C02  emissions 

Table  6.2  provides  projections  of  energy  related  C02  emissions  in  2000,  2010  and  2020.  It  should  be 
noted  that  these  results  are  first  estimates  of  future  EC  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  For  reasons  of 
companson,  estimates  of  C02  emissions  are  also  provided  for  the  year  1990,  using  the  same 
calculation  methodology.  Since  the  calculation  methodology  differs,  the  1990  emission  estimates 
provided  in  this  section  cannot  be  compared  with  the  EC  emission  inventory  as  included  in  Chapter 
3. 

the  "business  as  usual"  world 
According  to  the  Conventional  Wisdom  Scenano,  which  denotes 
representing  a  conventional  wisdom  view  of  the  most  likely  evaluation  of  events,  C02  emissions  in 
the  EC  are  expected  to  increase  with  5%  by  the  year  2000,  with  13%  by  the  year  2010  and  with 
16%  by  the  year  2020  (compared  with  1990  levels).  The  results  of  the  Hypermarket  scenario,  which 

62 

gives  a  predominant  role  to  market  forces,  liberalism  and  free  trade,  show  a  similar  increase:  an 
increase  is  expected  of  5%,  14%  and  17%  for  the  years  2000,  2010  and  2020  respectively.  The 
Battlefield  scenario,  which  assumes,  amongst  others,  that  the  world  reverts  to  isolation,  power  blocs 
and  protectionism,  results  in  a  decreasing  growth  of  C02  emissions:  an  increase  of  6%  in  2000,  of 
9%  in  2010  and  of  7%  in  2020.  According  to  the  Forum  scenario,  which  assumes,  amongst  others, 
that  the  world  moves  more  to  consensus  and  cooperative  international  structures  with  a  strong  role 
for  public  administration  and  intervention,  a  reduction  in  C02  emissions  is  expected:  2%  in  2000,  5% 
in  2010  and  10%  in  2020. 

Table  6.2. 

Trends  in  energy  related  C02  emissions  in  the  EUR-15.  (1000  Gg.);  preliminary 
results. 

1990 

2000 

2010 

2020 

Conventional  Wisdom  3,155(0) 
3,155(0) 
Battlefield 
3,155(0) 
Forum 
3,155(0) 
Hypermarket 

3,326(+5%) 
3,357(+6%) 
3,089(-2%) 
3,325(+5%) 

3,557(+13%) 
3,428(+9%) 
2,986(-5%) 
3,597(+14%) 

3,648(+16%) 
3,368(+7%) 
2,855(-10%) 
3,686(+17%) 

63 

VULNERABILITY  ASSESSMENT  AND  ADAPTATION  MEASURES 

7.1.  Introduction 

This  chapter  describes  the  possible  impacts  of  climate  change  on  the  European  Community  and 
adaptation  activities  taken  at  the  Community 
level.  The  Second,  Third  and  Fourth  Framework 
Programme  of  Research  and  Development  contain  specific  programmes  dealing  with  the  assessment 
of  possible  impacts  of  climate  change  on  various  environmental  sectors.  The  programmes  on  climate 
change  impacts  include  research  on  sea  level  rise  and  subsequent  impacts  on  European  coastal 
resources,  and  the  impacts  of  climate  change  on  European  land  resources  (agnculture  and  forestry). 
Also  included  in  the  research  programmes  is  the  research  on  "Desertification  in  the  Mediterranean 
Area",  as  well  as  studies  related  to  the  socio-economic  impacts  of  and  policy  responses  to  extreme 
events  due  to  climate  change.  Section  7.2  provides  a  brief  overview  of  the  possible  impacts  of 
climate  change  on  the  European  Community.  Details  on  research  programmes  related  to  climate 
change  are  not  discussed  in  this  section,  but  can  be  found  in  Chapter  9  "Research  and  Development". 
Section  7.3  gives  a  brief  overview  of  adaptation  activities  taken  at  the  Community  level. 

7.2.Possible  impacts  of  climate  change  on the  European  Community 

that  the  extent  of  temperature 

Temperature  increases 
The  timing  and  extent  of  a  possible  rise  in  temperature  due  to  the  enhanced  greenhouse  effect  is 
highly  uncertain,  in  particular  on  a  local  or  regional  level.  Although  the  results  of  models  predicting 
the  increase  in  temperature  can  only  be  considered  as  rough  estimates,  it  has  become  clear  that 
temperature  increases  will  be  greater  in  the  high  latitudes  than  in  the  low  latitudes.  Therefore,  it  is 
expected 
the 
temperature 
in  the  Meditenanean  regions.  Assuming  a  doubling  of  atmospheric  C02 
concentrations,  scenario  studies  show  that  average  winter  temperatures  in  the  far  northern  countries 
may  increase  by  2-5  °C,  while  the  winters  in  the  central  and  southern  region  can  be  1-3  °C  warmer. 
For  the  summer,  average  temperatures  are  3-4  °C  warmer  throughout  all  of  Europe  (Thimbal  et  al., 
1995;  Cabasch  et  al.,  1995).  Aerosols  emitted  in  the  atmosphere  have  a  net  negative  radiative 
forcing.  However,  any  negative  forcing  due  to  aerosols  cannot  be  regarded  as  a  simple  offset  to  the 
effect  of  greenhouse  gases,  because  the  regional  patterns  of  the  forcing  are  different  (IPCC,  1994). 

in  northern  Europe  will  be  larger  than 

increases 

increase 

Precipitation 
Large  uncertainties  exists  with  regard  to  the  impacts  of  climate  change  on  precipitation.  Most  likely 
summers  will  be  drier.  This  is  partly  because  earlier  snow  melt  would  affect  the  seasonal  cycle  of 
soil  moisture  reserves,  and  partly  because  warmer  temperatures  may  lead  to  increased  evaporation 
and  évapotranspiration  (Warnck  et  al.,  1990). 
the 
The  IPCC  (Houghton  et  al.,  1992)  estimated  under 
greenhouse  effect  can  lead  to  15  -25  %  less  soil  moisture  in  summer  for  Mediterranean  countnes. 
Since  these  countries  already  depend  heavily  on  irrigation,  this  may  have  enormous  impacts  on  their 
to  the 
agricultural  potentials.  Increased  andity  may  also 
breakdown  of  organic  matter,  salt  accumulation  and  the  formation  of  surface  crusts.  Therefore, 
impacts  on  the  agricultural  potential  could  be  even  more  severe. 

their  business-as-usual  scenario 

land  degradation  due 

lead  to  severe 

that 

64 

Water  resources 
Climate  change  also  has  significant  potential  impacts  on  water  resources,  their  distnbution  in  space 
and  time,  the  hydrological  cycle  of  water  masses,  water  quality  and  water  supply  systems  and 
requirements  for  water  resources  of  different  regions.  This  may  lead  to  complex  impacts  on  natural 
resources  and  human  activities,  in  particular  water  storage  and  distribution,  agriculture  and  electrical 
energy  production.  One  of  the  most  vulnerable  areas  in  the  European  Community,  with  respect  to 
impacts  on  water  resources,  is  the  Mediterranean  area. 

Sea  level  rise  and extreme  events 
Sea  level  rise  is  one  of  the  main  impacts  of  global  warming,  due  to  the  thermal  expansion  of  sea 
water,  the  melting  of  mountain  glaciers,  the  melting  of  inland  ice  caps  and  changes  in  the  Antarctic 
ice  sheet.  Consequent  effects  of  sea  level  rise  vary  from  continuously  inundation  of  low-lying  lands, 
increased  frequency  of  flooding,  changes  in  erosion  of  beach,  cliff  or  dunes,  salinisation  and  changes 
in  nver  hydrology.  A  changed  sea  level  is  also  likely  to  have  impacts  on  the  tides,  by  altering  the 
resonance  of  sea  basins. 

The  recent  best-estimate  business-as-usual  scenario  of  a  greenhouse  gas  induced  rise  in  the  global  sea 
surface  of  45  cm  by  2100  provides  only  a general  guide  for  possible  changes  in  the  relative  sea  level 
along  the  European  coasts.  Climate  change  affects  to  a  large  extent  the  occurence  and  severity  of 
extreme  events.  Flooding  associated  with  major  storms  is  most  likely  of  greater  consequence  than  sea 
level  rise  on  a  human  time  scale.  However,  knowlegde  of  the  pattern  and  incidence  of  storminess 
around  European  coasts 
in  North  West  Europe  and  parts  of  the 
Mediterranean.  The  impact  of  major  storms  will  become  more  widespread  as  the  sea  surface  rises. 
Especially  in  the  North  and  Mediterranean  Seas,  the  impacts  of  storms  are  a  matter  of  particular 
concern.  Currently,  the  EC  administers  several  contracts  to  estimate  the  risk  of  coastal  flooding  along 
selected  areas  of  the  European  Coastline  and  to  provide  bases  for  the  monitoring  and  mapping  of 
coastal  changes  on  European  coasts  and  of the  impacts  of  change. 

to  a  few  areas 

is  limited 

Agriculture 
Although  uncertainties  remain  in  research  results,  it  has  been  found  that  higher  temperatures  will 
shorten  the  duration  of  the  growing  period  for  annual  crops  (Harrison  and  Parry,  1993).  This  will 
lead  to  a  decreased  yield  of  the  crop,  although  the  direct  fertilizer  effects  of  increased  C02 
concentrations  may  offset  this  for  some  crops.  Conditions  in  southern  Europe  will  generally  become 
hotter  and  probably  dner,  which  will  have  negative  effects  on  crop  yields.  Parts  of  western  Europe 
(e.g.  northern  France  and  Germany)  may  benefit  if  there  is  an  average  increase  in  precipitation. 
Agricultural  practices,  such  as  sowing  times,  irrigation  and  the  use  of  cultivars  may  have  to  change 
due  to  higher  temperatures  and  potential  droughts. 

Grassland  production  is  expected  to  increase  across  Europe  (Jones  et  al.  1993).  The  production  will 
be  stimulated  by  the  direct  fertilizer  effect  of  C02  and  temperature  increases.  Assuming  an  equivalent 
doubling  of  preindustnal  C02  levels,  grassland  production  in  temperate  Europe  will  be  about  10-15% 
higher  than  at  present  due  to  the  direct  fertilizer  effect  and  a  further  18%  higher  than  at  present  due 
to  the  expected  temperature  increase. 

Forestry 
Changes  in  temperature  and  rainfall  patterns  are  likely  to  alter  the  composition,  distribution  and 
growth  patterns  of  forests.  To  avert  irreparable  damage  and  loss  of  forests,  research  programmes  are 
being  carried  out  to  quantify  the  impacts  of  climate  change  on  the  forestry  sector.  Based  on  these 
studies,  it  can  be  concluded  that  responses  vary  not  only  between  species,  but  also  between  juvenile 
and  mature  tissues.  Nutrition  is  also  a  very  important  parameter  in  the  responses  of  the  plant  to 
elevated  CO^  concentrations. 

65 

Only  indicative  estimates  are  available  of  regional  effects  of  climate  change  on  vegetation  zones. 
However,  models  suggest  a  north-northeast  movement  of  vegetation  zones  over  Europe  (Bengtsson, 
1994). 

Analysis  of  impacts  in  monetary  terms 
Although  large  uncertainties  exist  with  respect  to  the  type  and  magnitude  of  climate  change  impacts, 
experts  and  policy  makers  recognize  that  global  warming  will  take  place  over  the  next  century. 
Climate  change  is  likely  to  affect  nearly  all  economic  sectors.  An  analysis  of  economic  impacts  for 
EUR-12  (ERM,  1992a)  shows  that  although  global  warming  will  most  likely  result  in  a  net  economic 
cost  for  the  EC  as  a  whole, 
there  will  be  sectoral  and  regional  variations.  For  example,  it  is  likely 
that  there  will  be  an  increase  in  revenue  to  the  agricultural  sector  as  a  whole  in  the  EC,  but  this  is 
due  to  large  increases 
losses  m  revenue  in  southern  Europe. 
Economic  costs  in  the  EC  are  likely  to  occur  in  other  economic  sectors,  although  economic  benefits 
may  occur  in  some  regions,  e.g.  tourism  in  Belgium,  manufactunng  in  Luxembourg  and  the  services 
sector  in  the  UK.  90%  of  the  accumulated  economic  costs  is  likely  to  occur  in  the  second  half  of  the 
next  century. 

in  northern  Europe  outweighing 

Monetary  impact  values  have  been  estimated  by  impact  indicator  and  by  country  (ERM,  1992b). 
Annual  costs  have  been  estimated,  assuming  a  global  warming  of  1 °C  and  4  °C.  Assuming  that  no 
action  is  taken  to  control  emissions,  global  warming  could  range  from  approximately  0.5  °C  to  1 °C 
in  the  year  2020,  and  from  1.75  °C  to  4  °C  in  the  year  2100.  Monetary  impact  values  are  related  to 
levels  of  global  warming  rather  than  to  particular  years  in  the  future.  The  years  in  which  such  values 
can  be  expected  to  occur  depends  on  the  emission  control  scenario  selected.  For  this  reason  the 
estimates  are  presented  as  annual  values  and  are  not  discounted.As  the  monetary'  impact  values  are 
not  related  to  time,  no  projected  economic  growth  rate  is  incorporated  in  the  calculations.  National 
income  is  assumed  to  remain  constant. 

Table  7.1  shows  the  monetary  impact  values  for  the  EUR-12  at  1°C  and  4°C.  It  can  be  seen  that 
economic  damage  costs  are  likely  to  be  significant  as  a  proportion  of  GDP.  Although  the  indicators 
agricultural  yields,  comfort  threshold  and  heating  and  cooling  degree  days  are  positive,  the  total  is 
negative.  This  is  caused  by  the  high  economic  costs  of  sea  level  nse. 

Table  7.1. 

Monetary  impact  values  for  the  EUR-12  by  impact  indication  per  year  (Bn  1989 
ECU1)  and  as  %  of  1989  National  Income 

Bn  1989  ECU1 

%  of  National  Income 

Global  Temperature  increase 

1.0 

4.0 

Sea  level  rise 
Run-off 
Comfort  Threshold2 
Heating  and  cooling  degree  days 
Agricultural  yields 

Source:  ERM.  1992  b. 

-67.6 
-5.7 
4.7 
13.4 
3.2 

-272.2 
-18.4 
27.1 
35.5 
12.2 

1.0 

-1.9 
-0.2 
0.1 
0.4 
0.1 

4.0 

-7.6 
-0.5 
0.8 
1.0 
0.3 

Billion  of  ECU,  1989  level. 
Indicator  based  on  temperature,  precipitation  and  sunshine,  indicating  the  attractiveness  for 
tourism. 

66 

Table  7.2  shows  the  monetary  impact  values  for  the  Member  States  of  EUR-12.  It  can  be  seen  that 
significant  differences  exist  between  countries.  For  southern  EC  countries,  monetary  impact  values 
are  mostly  negative:  cooling  requirements  increase,  and  the  attractiveness  for  tourism  is  decreasing 
due  to  the  negative  effects  of  sea  level  rise  and  water  shortages.  An  exception  is  the  agricultural 
yield  indicator,  which  is  positive  or  zero  for  all  Member  States.  It  should  be  noted  that  a  positive 
indicator  for  agricultural  yield  does  not  imply  that  the  agricultural  sector  as  a  whole  will  face 
economic  benefits.  Other  factors  such  as  the  total  agricultural  land  potential  play  an  important  role  as 
well. 

Table  7.2. 

Monetary  impact  values  by  impact  indicator  for  Member  States  at  4  °C  (Bn  19891). 

Sea 
Level 
Rise 

Run-off 

Comfort 
Threshold2 

Heating 
and  cooling 
degree  days  yields 

Agri-
cultural 

Total 

Belgium 
Denmark 
France 
Germany 
Greece 
Ireland 
Italy 
Luxembourg 
Netherlands 
Portugal 
Spain 
United  Kingdom 

-2.1 
-37.1 
-78.2 
-43.9 
-3.4 
-13.0 
-37.2 
0.0 
-10.7 
-1.5 
-18.4 
-26.6 

Source:  ERM,  1992  b. 

-0.3 
0.0 
1.7 
-3.7 
-0.6 
0.0 
-5.4 
0.0 
0.0 
-1.5 
-5.4 
0.0 

4.0 
1.0 
6.0 
15.4 
-2.1 

0.0 
-2.9 
0.2 
1.4 
0.7 
2.8 
0.6 

2.4 
1.1 
4.1 
11.0 
-0.5 
0.7 
0.6 
2.3 
2.9 
-0.1 
-0.4 
11.4 

0.8 
1.1 
2.2 
3.0 
0.0 
0.5 
0.8 
0.0 
1.8 
0.1 
0.9 
1.1 

4.8 
-33.9 
-67.6 
-18.2 
-6.6 
-11.8 
-44.1 
2.5 
-4.6 
-2.3 
-20.5 
-13.5 

1 
2 

Billion  of  ECU,  1989  level. 
Indicator  based  on  temperature,  precipitation  and  sunshine,  indicating  the  attractiveness  for 
tourism. 

7.3.  Adaptation  activities 

Coastal  Zones 
One  of  the  key  targets  of  the  Fifth  Action  Programme  of  the  ECs  "Towards  Sustainability"  (CEC, 
1993)  is  the  integrated  management  of  coastal  zones.  By  request  of  the  Council  of  Ministers 
(Environment),  in  a  Resolution  adopted  on  25  February  1992,  the  Commission  is  currently  preparing 
a  Communication  on  the  integrated  management  of  coastal  zones,  with  a  view  to  providing  a 
coherent  environmental 
integrated  and  sustainable  forms  of  development.  The 
Communication  will  deal  with  the  entire  ambit  of  the  coastal  zones  of  the  EC,  including  fore-shore, 
coastal  waters  and  estuaries,  and  coastal  land  up  to  the  limit  of  the  marine  or  coastal  influence. 
Research  and  development  activities,  e.g.  Environment  and  Climate  and  "MAST"  programmes  (see 
Chapter  8)  will  provide  a  scientific  basis  for  sound  ecological  management  of  these  zones.  In 

framework 

for 

67 

appropriate  cases,  financial  support  could  be  provided  from  existing  istruments  where  rules  and 
criteria  would  authorise  potential  stakeholders  to  submit  projects  in  line  with  the  Communication. 

Foreseen  for  approval  by  the  Commission 
in  October  1995  is  a  Communication,  which  proposes  a 
three  years  demonstration  programme  in  order  to  investigate  and  demonstrate  the  conditions  of 
coordination,  horizontally  between  the  multiple  sectors  of  activity  (  priciple  of  integration)  and 
vertically  between  the  levels  of  territorial  competence  (principle  of  subsidiarity).  In  effect  it  should 
show  -on  the  coastal  area  example-  how  to  better  put  in  practice  the  driving  pnnciples  of  the  fifth 
Environment  Action  Programme. 

The  stakeholders  at  the  various  levels(local,  regional,  national,  european)  would  have  perform 
following  tasks: 

the 

Description 

-  state  of  the  environment 
-  existing  environmental  measures 

-  planned  developments 

Analysis 

-  causes  of  existing  environment  problems 
-  potential  impacts  of  planned  developments 
-  potential  impacts  of  the  evaluation  of  the  global  environment 
-  identification  of  management  options 

Concertation 

-  setting  up  mechanisms  of  coordination  or  adjusting  existing  ones 

-  evaluation  of  management  options 
-  agreeing  on  plans/programmes:strategies  for  sustainable  development  of  coastal  areas 

The  Commission  must  ensure  that  the  programme  is  set  up,  and  that  the  results  are  discussed  and 
disseminated  in  order  to  generate  practical  results  on  the  way  to  achieve  more  quickly  sustainable 
development  in  coastal  areas.  The  programme  should  also  identify  needs  for  further  action  at 
European  and  other  levels. 

Forests 
In  June  1993,  at  the  Helsinki  Ministerial  Conference  on  the  protection  of  forests  in  Europe,  the 
European  Community  signed  the  Resolution  on  strategies  for  a  process  of  long  term  adaptation  of 
forests  in  Europe  to  climate  change.  The  European  Community  actively  participates  in  the  follow-up 
process  of  this  conference  and  its  resolutions.  One  of  the  objectives  of  the  Resolution  on  climate 
change 
the 
understanding  of  the  linkages  between  climate  change  and  forest  ecosystems,  including  feedbacks 
from  the  ecosystem  to  the  climate  system.  This  should  help  to  adjust  European  forest  management 
systems  in  order  to  optimize  the  adaptation  of  forests  to  climate  change.  Another  objective  of  the 
Resolution  is  the  adaptation  of  existing  forest  monitoring  schemes  to  assess  alterations  in  forests  that 
may  be  due  to  climate  change. 

international  cooperation 

intensify  European 

research  and 

improve 

its 

to 

to 

is 

68 

8. 

FINANCE  AND  INTERNATIONAL  COOPERATION 

8.1.  Introduction 

As  Party,  listed  in  Annex  II  of  the  UN  FCCC,  the  EC  is  obliged  to  communicate  details  of  measures 
taken  in  accordance  with  Article  4,  paragraphs  3, 4  and  5. 

This  chapter  describes  multilateral  and  bilateral  cooperation  between  the  European  Community  and 
developing  countries  and  between  the  European  Community  and  the  countries  with  economies  in 
transition.  As  a  result  of  the  Fifth  Action  Programme,  progress  has  been  made  in  integrating 
environmental  requirements  into  cooperation  with  non  Community  countries,  the  so  called  "third 
countries".  Environmental  concerns  are  now  reflected  in  most  of  the  bilateral  cooperation  contracts 
established  between  the  Community  and  its  partner  countries  (CEC,  1994d). 

Most  of  the  cooperation  programmes  and  structures  mentioned  in  this  chapter  have  elements  related 
to  climate  change,  but  are  not  specifically  orientated  towards  it.  Also,  some  of  these  programmes  and 
structures  are  not  only  orientated  towards  developing  countries  or  countries  with  economies  in 
transition,  but  to  all  "third  countries". 

The  first  Conference  of  the  Parties  to  UN  FCCC  decided,  amongst  others,  that  the  restructured 
Global  Environment  Facility  (GEF)  shall  continue,  on  an  interim  basis,  to  be  the  international  entity 
entrusted  with  the  operation  of  the  financial  mechanism  of  the  Convention.  It  decided  also  to  review 
the  financial  mechanism  within  four  years  and  take  approppriate  measures,  including  a  determination 
of  the  definitive  status  of  the  GEF  in  the  context  of  the  Convention  (Decision  9/CP.l). 

The  European  Parliament  has  expressed  itself,  in  the  Resolution  on  the  Global  Environment  Facility 
(EP  Resolution,  report  A3-0378/93,  18.01.1994),  to  be  in  favour  of  the  participation  of  the  European 
Community  in  the  GEF  as  this  would  facilitate  its  coordinating  role  in  international  environmental 
matters.  The  GEF 
has  been  requested  on  15  June  1995  to  invite  the  European  Community  as 
observers  to  attend  future  GEF  Council  meetings.  Discussions  are  currently  taking  place  with  the 
European  Parliament  on  how  to  allocate  the  foreseen  3  MECU  for  EC  participation  in  the  GEF. 

8.2.Cooperation with  third  countries 

Cooperation  with  third  countries  relating  to  climate  change  takes  place  in  the  framework  of  an 
initiative  called  SYNERGY  since  1980  ,  the  LIFE  instrument  since  1992  and  the  European  Energy 
Charter  since  1994. 

69 

SYNERGY 

The  Commission  has  proposed  on  23  May  1995  that  the  Council  prolong  and  change  the  SYNERGY 
initiative  in  a  programme(  COM  (95)  197  final). 
The  objective  of  SYNERGY 
is  to  improve  the  long  term  world  energy  situation  and  hence, 
Community  energy  security,  by  helping  other  countries  to  make  effective  energy  policy  decisions.  By 
encouraging  energy  planning,  the  rational  use  of  energy  and  counselling  and  training,  SYNERGY 
contributes  to  the  reduction  of  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  The  funding  of  the  initiative  amounted  to  8 
MECU  per  year. 

Energy  cooperation  under  this  programme  is  aimed  at  all  third  countries,  and  that  is  an  advantage 
over  the  other  EC  cooperation  programmes  which  all  have  a  limited  field  of  geographical  application. 

Within  the  context  of  the  SYNERGY  initiative  , the  EC  has  contributed  to  regional  planning  studies 
by  providing  funds  and  experts.  The  impact  of  energy  consumption  on  climate  change  is  always 
taken  into  account  in  those  studies.  The  EC  has  contributed  to  the  following  planning  studies: 

energy  plan  for  the  state  of  Rio  Grande  do  Sul,  Brazil; 
study  on  improving  demand  forecasting  tools  for  Brazil; 

energy  study  for  the  province  of  Buenos  Aires,  Argentina; 
energy  prospects  for  South  Amenca: 
urban  energy  plan  for  Bydgoszcz  and  Gliwice,  Poland: 
urban  energy  plan  for  Miskolc,  Hungary; 
energy  policy  studies  for  China; 
energy  planning  in  Maghreb  countnes; 
urban  energy  plan  for  Ankara,  Turkey; 
national  energy  plan  for  Cyprus. 

Concerning  the  rational  use  of  energy,  the  mam  means  in  the  SYNERGY  initiative  are  the  transfer  of 
technology  and  methods  for  rational  use  of  energy,  the  evaluation  of  potential  energy  savings  in 
several  economic  sectors  or  countries  and  the  promotion  of  cogeneration  in  energy  production.  The 
EC  has  supported  the  following  projects: 

optimization  of  energy  use  in  buildings  in  Brazil; 

energy  efficiency  in  road  transport  and  industry  in  Brazil; 
methodology  for  cogeneration  in  Brazil; 

promotion  of  cogeneration  in  Chile,  Peru  and  Mexico; 
energy  efficiency  in  the  grain  processing  industry  in  Argentina; 

seminar  on  energy  audits  in  Tunisia; 
plan  for  rational  use  of  energy  in  industry,  transport  and  buildings  in  Morocco; 
promotion  of  rational  use  of  energy  in  Israel; 
energy  savings  in  buildings  in  Mediterranean  countries; 
industrial  energy  efficiency  audits  in  Hungary. 

Institution  building  is  also  an  important  element  of  the  SYNERGY  initiative.  This  is  pursued  by  the 
establishment  of  energy  centres  in  the  countries  of  Eastern  Europe  and  developing  countries.  The 
objectives  of  these  centres  are  the  stimulation  of  the  market  penetration  of  efficient  energy 

70 

technologies,  providing  a  permanent  representation  of  European  energy  industnalists  and  experts,  and 
assisting  in  setting  up  of  effective  energy  infrastructure  (CEC,  1994c).  At  present,  energy  centres 
have  been  set  up  in  Slovenia,  Hungary,  Albania  and  Rumania.  In  the  near  future  it  is  intended  to 
establish  energy  centres  in  China,  Indonesia,  Senegal  and  Argentina. 

The  Commission  has  proposed  that  the  Programme 
MECU. 

is  to  last  five  years  with  a  total  budget  of  50 

LIFE 
On  21  May  1992  the  Community  agreed  upon  the  regulation  on  LIFE  (Lending  Instrument  for  the 
Environment)(1992/73/EEC).  This  provides  for  EC  co-funding  of  demonstration  actions,  awareness 
raising  campaigns  and  technical  assistance  projects  in  the  area  of  environmental  protection.  The 
funding  has  been  divided  into  several  parts.  The  larger  part  is  concerned  with  nature  conservation, 
while  the  smaller  part  is  concerned  with  environmental  quality. 

European  Energy  Charter 

The  European  Energy  Charter  Treaty  and  the  Energy  Efficiency  Protocol  have  been  signed  in  Lisbon 
on  17  December  1994,  after  negotiations  encompassing  some  50  countries  had  been  successfully 
concluded  in  June  1994.  The  European  Energy  Charter  (COM  (95)  440)  is  a  political  declaration 
committing  its  signatories  to  cooperate  in  trade,  investment  and  other  policies  in  all  energy  sectors. 
These  efforts  should  lead  to  the  creation  of  a  true  energy  market  throughout  Europe.  Environment 
protection  and  more  efficient  use  of  energy  brought  about  by  Treaties  and  Protocols  in  the  frame  of 
the  charter  will  have  a  positive  impact  on  limiting  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in 
particular  by  encouraging  market  pnces,  and  hence  more  efficient  energy  usage. 

8.3.Cooperation  with  developing  countries 

Cooperation  with  developing  countnes  takes  place  in  the  framework  of  general  and  more  specific 
cooperation  programmes.  The  specific  programmes  include  research  cooperation,  energy  and  forestry 
related  issues. 

Research  cooperation 
Since  1982,  the  European  Community  has  financed  scientific  cooperation  with  developing  countries. 
A  specific  programme  in  this  field  which  was  targeted  towards  research  cooperation  with  developing 
countnes,  was  Life  Sciences  and  Technologies  for  Developing  Countnes.  This  programme  ran  dunng 
the  Third  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (1990-1994). 

The  Fourth  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (1994-1998)  covers  activities 
specifically  aiming  at  the  promotion  of  international  scientific  cooperation.  This  area  has  a  budget  of 
540  MECU  (i.e.  approximately  5%  of  the  total  budget  of  the  fourth  framework  programme)  The 
largest  part  of  the  budget  will  be  used  for  cooperation  with  the  countries  of  Eastern  and  Central 
Europe,  the  independent  states  of  former  Soviet  Union  and  developing  countries. 

71 

to  all  developing  countries  and  of  prime 

The  forthcoming  research  cooperation  with  developing  countnes  covers  topics  that  are  seen  to  be 
to  their  economic  and  social 
common 
development.  The  new  programme  opens  new  areas:  underlines 
the  concept  of  sustainable 
development  and  strengthens  interdisciplinary  approaches.  The  programme  will  target  three  sectors: 

importance 

sustainable  management  of  renewable  natural  resources; 
improvement  of  agncultural  production  and  agro-industnal  production; 
health  research  for  development. 

Areas  of  relevance  to  processes  of  global  environmental  change  cover  research  on  the  use  and 
management  of  ecosystems  (e.g.  forests,  coastal  zones,  wetlands,  drylands,  oceans,  mountain  areas 
and  highlands).  Human  driving  forces  behind  changes  in  the  use  and  management  of  ecosystems  will 
also  be  covered,  for  instance  the  impact  of  vanous  policies  on  land-use  systems.  While  agnculture 
and  agro-industrial  production  are  sectors  of  great  importance  for  developing  countries,  there  is  a 
need  for  research  on  sustainable  production  systems  taking  account  of  socio-economic  as  well  as 
environmental  considerations.  An  example  is  the  improvement  of  systems  for  processing  and  use  of 
crop  and  animal  production.  Additional  scientific  areas  of  mutual  interest  may  also  be  covered. 

Cooperation  with  developing  countries  will  be  implemented  in  close  liaison  with  other  forms  for 
cooperation  such  as  the  Lomé  Convention,  the  new  Mediterranean  policy  and  the  regulation  on 
financial  and  technical  assistance  to.  and  economic  cooperation  with,  the  developing  countnes  in 
Asia  and  Latin  America. 

Cooperation  on  energy  related  issues 

Energy  projects  in  Asian  and  Latin  American  countnes  are  funded  within  the  frame  of  economic 
cooperation  from  Budget  Line  B7-3013.  Since,  1990  eight  projects  have  been  set  up  within  this 
budget  line  which  are  of  direct  relevance  to  the  climate  change  issue.  These  projects  involved  the 
expenditure  of  around  1'5  MECU. 
Since  1992,  no.  specific  budget  line  covers  energy  projects,  which  are  funded  under  Economic 
cooperation  or  Financial  and 
technical  cooperation.  For  example,  mid  1995  there  are  16  energy 
projects  on-going  in  Asia,  for  a total  commitment  of  56  MECU. 

Cooperation  on  forestry  related  issues 
With  respect  to  forestry,  worth  mentioning  is  the  establishment  of  the  Community  budget  line 
"Tropical  forest  activities"  (Budget  Line  B7-5041).  This  budget  line  is  intended  to  finance  projects 
concerned  with  the  conservation  and  sustainable  management  of  tropical  and  subtropical  forests.  The 
budget  line  was  established  in  1990  and  resulted  in  an  allocation  of  2  MECU  to  tropical  forest 
projects  in  1991. This  amount  was  increased  to  50  MECU  in  the  following  years.  Approximately  one 
third  of  the  budget  line  is  devoted  to  projects  in  the  African,  Caribbean  and  Pacific  countries  and 
two-thirds  to  projects  in  Asia  and  Latin  America.  A  proposal  for  a  regulation  to  establish  the  legal 
basis  of  the  budget  line  has  been  presented  to  the  Council. 

72 

Some  of  the  major  actions  financed  to  date  or  presently  under  preparation  under  the  tropical  forests 
budget  line  include: 

The  Pilot  programme  for  the  Conservation  of  Brazilian  Tropical  Forests:  an  initial  EC  contribution  of 
11.9  MECU  was  made  to  the  Rain  Forest  Trust  Fund  in  1992,  and  cofinanced  actions  began  in  1993 
with  a  contribution  of  4.8  MECU  to  the  directed  research  component.  Cofinancing  of  4  MECU  for 
the  demonstration  projects  component,  which  will  support  local  community  and  NGO  activities  for 
forest  conservation  and  sustainable  development,  and  a  further  5MECU  for  extractive  reserves  aimed 
at  assisting  rubber  tapers  and  other  traditional  forest  users  was  committed  in  1994.  In  1995,  a  16.7 
MECU  commitment  for  the  Natural  Resources  Policy  project  has  been  decided. 

In  Colombia,  funding  has  already  provided  for  an  Amazon  Fund  for  sustainable  development,  geared 
to  channelling  resources  to  small-scale  local  initiatives  aimed  at  sustainable  use  of  forest  resources. 
Funding  is  also  provided  for  the  implementation  of  the  Alto  Orinoco  biosphere  reserve  in  Venezuela, 
and  is  under  consideration 
for  the  manus  Biosphere  reserve  in  Peru.  In  1995  further  new  projects 
may  be  undertaken  in  Paraguay  and  Mexico. 

their  Pro  Tempore 
The  Community  provides  support  to  the  Amazon  pact  countries  through 
for  the  pact,  together  with  regional 
Secretariat  in  Lima.  A  programme  of  institutional  strengthening 
areas  across  the  region,  and  for  the 
projects  for  the  planning  and  management  of  protected 
consolidation  of  indigenous  areas,  have  already  been  initiated.  Another  important  regional  project 
which  seeks  to  address  the  fundamental  causes  of  deforestation  concerns  the  control  of  the  expansion 
of  the  agricultural  frontier  in  Central  America. 

A  number  of  initiatives  have  been  undertaken  in  the  context  of  the  Community's  forest  sector  support 
programme  to  Indonesia,  and  a  sustainable  forest  management  project  for  Berau  in  East  Kalimantan 
was  committed  in  1994.  A  Geographical  Information  Systems 
project  has  been  agreed  with 
Malaysia,  and  a  national  parks  programme  with  the  Philippines. 

In  one  country,  in  particular,  Indonesia,  actions, 
represented,  for  the  years  1993-1995  the  backbone  of  the  EC  development  cooperation  with  a  total  of 
4  major  projects  presently  in  place  and  further  2  planned  (100  MECU).  Other  countries  targeted  for 
EC  assistance  in  the  forestry  sector  (under  budget  line  B7-3000)  include,  amongst  other,  Bangladesh, 
India,  Bhutan,  Laos,  Vietnam,  Malaysia  and  the  Philippines. 

in  favour  of  tropical  forests  have 

indeed 

forest  monitoring 
Important  projects  undertaken  in  ACP  countries  include  a  regional  Central  African 
project  (3.5MECU),  Korup  national  park  in  Cameroun  (7.3  MECU)  and  substantial  programmes  in 
Nigena,  Tanzania,  Ivory  Coast,  Guinea  and  Papua  New  Guinea. 

Numerous  smaller-scale  projects 
local  NGOs  and 
implemented  by  European, 
community  groups  and  indigenous  peoples'  organisations  have  received  support.  Close  attention  has 
to  participatory  sustainable 
been  paid  to  the  human  aspects  of  forest  conservation, 
development  activities  at  local  level.  Biosphere  reserves  have  provided  a  useful  framework  for  the 

international  or 

through 

73 

combination  of  sustainable 
which  have  benefited  or  for  which  assistance  is  under  consideration. 

resource  use  with  forest  conservation,  and  there  are  around  10  reserves 

are  under 
A  number  of  non-country  specific  or  horizontal  actions  have  been  financed  or 
consideration,  notably  in  the  fields  of  promoting  the  establishment  of  timber  certification  systems, 
sustainable  paper  production, 
information 
federation  of  European  parks  and  protected 
resources,  and  partnership  arrangements  between  the 
areas  in  Latin  America  and  Asia. 

forests  and  biodiversity 

forest  monitoring, 

tropical 

Other bilateral  cooperation 

African.  Caribbean  and  Pacific  countnes  (ACP) 

The  most  comprehensive  of  all  the  Community's  regional  agreements  with  developing  countries  are 
those  with  the  African,  Caribbean  and  Pacific  (ACP)  countries,  the  so-called  Lomé  Conventions.  The 
fourth  convention  was  signed  in  Lomé  on  15  December  1989  (Lomé  IV)  and  will  be  into  force  from 
1990  to  1995.  The  main  objective  of  the  convention  is  cooperation  between  ACP  and  EC  countnes 
in  order  to  promote  and  expedite  the  economic,  cultural  and  social  development  of  the  ACP  States 
and  to  consolidate  and  diversify  their  relations  in  a  spirit  of  solidarity  and  mutual  interest  (Article  I 
of  the  Convention). 

Under  Lomé  IV,  environment  is  one  of  the  main  areas  of  cooperation.  Within  the  framework  of 
efforts  to  protect  the  environment  and  restore  natural  balances,  cooperation  aims  to  promote  specific 
operations  concerning  the  conservation  of  natural  resources,  renewable  and  non-renewable,  the 
protection  of  ecosystems  and  the  control  of  drought,  desertification  and  deforestation.  Other 
operations  on  specific  themes  are  also  being  undertaken,  notably  locust  control,  the  protection  and 
utilization  of  water  resources,  the  preservation  of  tropical  forests  and  biological  diversity,  the 
promotion  of  a  better  balance  between  urban  and  rural  areas,  and  the  urban  environment  (Article  14 
of  the  Convention). 

Another  main  area  of  cooperation  is  energy  development.  The  ACP  States  and  the  Community  have 
agreed  to  cooperate  in  view  of  the  senousness  of  the  energy  situation  in  the  majority  of  ACP  States, 
owing  partly  to  the  crisis  caused  in  many  countries  by  dependence  on  imported  petroleum  products 
and  the  increasing  scarcity  of  fuelwood,  and  in  view  of  the  effects  the  use  of  fossil  fuels  have  on  the 
climate  (Article  105  of  the  Convention).  In  ACP-EC,  cooperation  particular  emphasis  shall  be  placed 
on  energy  programming,  operations  for  saving  and  making  efficient  use  of  energy,  reconnaissance  of 
energy  potential  and  the  economically  and  technically  appropriate  promotion  of  new  and  renewable 
sources  of  energy. 

Asian  and  Latin-American  developing  countries  (ALA) 

Since  1976,  the  Community  has  been  pursuing  a  policy  of  financial,  technical  and,  more  recently, 
also  economic  cooperation  with  the  Asian  and  Latin  American  developing  countries  (ALA).  Under 

74 

the  new  guidelines  for  Community  cooperation  with  Asian  and  Latin  American  (ALA)  countries 
sustainable 
(Regulation  443/92),  protection  of 
development,  are  long-term  pnonties.  10  %  of  the  total  budget  of  2,750  MECU  for  the  period  1991-
1995,  has  been  set  aside  for  projects  specifically  aimed  at  protecting  the  environment,  in  particular 
tropical  forests  (Article  5  of  the  Regulation). 

the  environment  and  natural 

resources,  and 

Environmental  Impact  Assessment  have  been  fully  integrated  in  the  activities  of  the  EC  operations 
with  developing  countries. 

The  overall  volume  of  the  financial  resources  committed  to  sustainable  development  cooperation  is 
increasing  since  1990,  reaching  770  MECU  in  1993,  which  were  provided  for  projects  in  ALA, 
ACP  and  the  Mediterranean  countnes  in  areas  relevant  to  the  implementation  of  Agenda  21  and  other 
Rio  Conference  agreements,  for  example  energy,  biodiversity,  forests, 
rural  environment  and 
desertification,  water  and  urban  environment. 

While  the  bulk  of  this  expenditure  is  channelled  through  bilateral  (or  regional)  programmes,  there  are 
also  two  budget  lines  specifically  devoted  to  environment  in  developing  countries  and  to  tropical 
forest. 
The  first  (B7-5040) 
targeted  at  the  environment  in  developing  countries  (13.2  MECU  in  1995)  is 
being  used  for  small  scale  concrete  activities  related  to  the  management  of  natural  and  urban 
environment  including  airpollution.  A  significant  proportion  of  the  budget  line 
is  devoted  to  assist 
developing  countries  to  enhance  their  institutional  capacity  to  deal  with  environmental  issues,  training 
establishment  of  local  sustainable  development  plans  and 
in  environmental  management  and 
strategies  with  strong  local  community  participation  are  some  of  its  items. 

The  second  budget  line  (B7-5041)  concerns  the  protection  of  forests  on  which  reference  has  been 
made  in  previous  chapters. 

8.4.  Cooperation  with  the  countries  of  Central  and  Eastern  Europe 
and  the  former  Soviet  Union 

The  cooperation  with  the  central  and  eastern  European  countries  (CEECs)  and  the  former  Soviet 
Union  is  mainly  based  on  the  PHARE  (Poland  and  Hungary  Assistance  to  the  Restructuring  of  the 
Economy)  and  the  TACIS  (Technical  Assistance  to  the  Commonwealth  of  Independent  States) 
programmes.  The  PHARE  programme  was  established  in  1989  and  its  main  objective  was  to  provide 
direct  assistance  to  Poland  and  Hungary.  Since  then,  the  programme  has  been  expanded  to  other 
countries  in  Central  and  Eastern  Europe.  The  TACIS  programme,  oriented  on  the  Commonwealth  of 
Independent  States  (CIS),  was  formally  established  by  a  regulation  adopted  by  the  Council  of 
Ministers  in  July  1991  (EEC/Euratom,  no.  2157/91).  A  new  and  revised  regulation  was  passed  in 
1993  (EEC/Euratom,  no.  2053/93).  Close  links  are  being  maintained  between  the  PHARE  and  the 
TACIS  programme. 

75 

PHARE 

The  PHARE  programme  is  an  EC  initiative  which  supports  the  political  and  economic  development 
of  the  CEECs.  PHARE  provides  grant  finance  to  support  the  process  of  economic  transformation  and 
to  strengthen  newly  created  democratic  societies.  PHARE  also  provides  grant  finance 
to  help 
countries  with  Europe  Agreements  to  integrate  with  the  EC.  Within  PHARE,  close  cooperation  exists 
with  the  partner  countries  on  how  funds  are  to  be  spent,  within  a  framework  agreed  by  the  EC. 

Initial  PHARE  support  in  the  environment  area  covered  urgent  actions  such  as  the  supply  of 
equipment  to  monitor  air  and  water  pollution,  studies  on  specific  problems  and  help  in  establishing 
standards  and  legislation.  Later,  the  focus  was  switched  to  develop  a  more  strategic  approach, 
including  the  development  of  policies  and  programmes  for  specific  sectors  such  as  waste  treatment. 

The  main  priorities  for  PHARE  funding  are  common  to  all  countries,  although  every  country  is  at  a 
different  stage  of  transformation.  The  key  areas  include  restructuring  of  state  enterprises  including 
agriculture,  private  sector  development,  reform  of  institutions  and  public  administration,  reform  of 
social 
transport  and 
telecommunications  infrastructure,  and  environment  and  nuclear  safety.  At  the  end  of  its  first  five 
years  of  operation 
in  1994,  the  European  Community,  through  the  PHARE  programme,  made 
available  4,284  MECU  to  11 partner  countnes  (CEC,  1994b). 

services,  employment,  education  and  health,  development  of  energy, 

Of  relevance  to  the  climate  change  issue  are  particularly  the  activities  in  the  key  areas  "environment 
and  nuclear  safety"  and  "development  of  energy".  Other  Community  programmes  are  complementing 
the  assistance  in  the  energy  sector,  such  as  THERMIE  (Section  4.3)  and  SYNERGY  (Section  8.2). 
For  all  the  CEECs  and  the  EC,  the  European  Energy  Charter  reflects  common  interests  in  the  energy 
sector. 

The  support  in  the  area  of  environment  is  being  provided  either  in  the  form  of  yearly  National  or 
Regional  Environmental  Sector  Programmes  or  through  environmental  components  in  the  General 
Technical  Assistance  Facilities. 

In  1991,  technical  assistance  programmes  in  the  energy  sector  started  in  Poland,  the  Czech  and 
Slovak  Federative  Republic,  Hungary  and  the  Baltic  States.  In  1992  and  1993,  PHARE  extended  its 
activities  in  the  energy  sector  to  the  other  partner  countries  and  to  "multi-country"  activities.  The  aim 
of  the  multi-country  energy  programme  is  to  facilitate  cooperation  between  all  the  PHARE  partner 
countnes.  These  regional  projects  cover  the  following  areas: 

interconnection  of  energy  networks; 
twinning  and  training  programmes; 
energy  and  environment. 

Regarding  "energy  and  environment",  an  important  programme  is  cunently  being  prepared,  namely 
the  development  of  a  coordinated  strategy  in  the  field  of  clean  and  rational  use  of  coal  in  central  and 
eastern  Europe  (CEC,  1994b). 

76 

TACIS 
The  overall  aim  of  the  TACIS  programme  is  to  contnbute  to  the  transition  towards  a  market 
economy  of  the  independent  states  of  the  former  Soviet  Union.  By  the  end  of  1994,  TACIS  included 
13  partner  countries:  Armenia,  Azerbijan,  Belarus,  Georgia,  Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan,  Moldova, 
Mongolia,  the  Russian  Federation,  Tajikistan,  Turkmenistan,  Ukraine  en  Uzbekistan.  The  TACIS 
programme  provides  support  in  the  form  of  grant  finance  to  foster  the  exchange  of  knowledge  and 
expertise  through  partnerships,  links  and  networks  at  all  levels  of  society'.  TACIS  started  in  1991 
with  an  annual  budget  of  400  MECU,  which  rose  to  510  MECU  in  1994  (CEC,  1994a). 

The  European  Community  and  its  partner  countries  work  closely  together  to  assess  reform  objectives 
and  the  needs  for  TACIS  support  based  on  the  economic  situation  and  progress  of  reform.  The  major 
focal  areas  currently  supported  by  TACIS  are: 

human  resources  development; 
enterprise  restructuring  and  development; 
infrastructures; 
energy,  including  nuclear  safety; 
food  production,  processing  and  distribution. 

Although  the  first  TACIS  Regulation  did  not  mention  the  environment  as  a  focal  area,  environmental 
concerns  have  played  a  major  role  in  all  TACIS  activities  from  the  programme's  inception.  The 
Commission  has  chosen  to  integrate  the  environment  in  all  sectors,  rather  than  focusing  on  projects 
which  are  purely  "environmental".  Environmental  impact  assessment  and  auditing  was  an  integral 
part  or  part  of  the  feasibility  study  of  all  larger  projects.  However,  the  new  TACIS  Regulation  (1993-
1995)  includes  a  specific  reference  to  the  environment.  Article  4,  paragraph  3  of  the  Regulation 
states 
taken  of  environmental  considerations  when  designing  and 
implementing  programmes". 

that  "due  regard  shall  be 

the  beginning  of  1995,  the  European  Community  has  reinforced 

In 
the 
environment  in  the  former  Soviet  Union,  through  the  Environmental  Support  Facility  project.  The 
projects'  main  purpose  is  to  provide  a  framework  for  environmentally  sound  economic  growth  in  the 
region  and  to  help  restore  areas  which  have  suffered  from  senous  environmental  damage  in  the  past. 
It  will  help  industry,  governments  and  non-governmental  organisations  to  plan  and 
implement 
environmental  projects. 

its  commitment 

to 

Energy  is  specified  as  one  of  the  prionty  sectors  of  the  TACIS  programme.  Important  to  note  is  that 
each  project  in  the  energy  sector  contains  an  energy  saving  component.  Advice  is  also  offered  to 
assess  the  potential  of  renewable  resources,  mainly  hydropower  but  also  solar,  wind  and  geothermal 
power. 

The  TACIS  programme  has  inter  alia  financed  a  number  of  energy  centres  which  were  established 
under  the  THERMIE  programme  (CEC,  1994a).  These  energy  centres  develop  energy  saving 
strategies,  promote  commercial  cooperation  and  establish  dialogues  between  international  energy 

77 

experts.  Also  a  number  of  energy  audits  are  carried  out  at  industrial  plants  as  a  first  step  in 
demonstrating  energy  saving  technologies.  This  technical  assistance  is  aimed  at  reducing  the  energy 
intensity  of  the  industrial  and  commercial  sectors  and  is  provided  directly  to  specific  energy-intensive 
enterprises  through  demonstration  projects.  Recent  actions  include  energy  audits  in  the  aluminium, 
steel,  cement  and  paper  industries  (CEC,  1994d).  In  the  following  years  TACIS  will  provide  energy 
saving  advice  to  the  existing  institutions  involved  in  energy  distribution. 

8.5.Summary 

Table  8.1  gives  an  overview  of  budgets  which  have  been  spent  on  or  reserved  for  programmes  in  the 
field  of  international  cooperation.  However,  it  should  be  emphasized  that  international  cooperation 
programmes  usually  encompass  a  wide  range  of  activities.  It  is  difficult  to  isolate  the  environmental 
or  energy  component  of  the  various  integrated  development  projects.  The  table  should  be  read  in  that 
context.  Climate  change  related  projects  only  cover  a  minor  part  of the  total  budgets. 

Table  8.1 

Summary  of  expenditures  on  EC  cooperation  programmes  with 

third  countries, 

especially  developing  countries  and  countries  with  economies  in  transition. 

Cooperation  programme 

Time  period 

Total  budget  (MECU) 

All  third  countries: 
SYNERGY 
LIFE 
Developing  countries: 
Research  cooperation 
Energy  cooperation  (B7-3013) 
Forestry  cooperation  (B7-5041) 
ACP-countries 
ALA-countries 

Countries  with  economies  in  transition: 
PHARE 
TACIS 

1990-1994 
1991-1995 

1990-1994 
1990-1994 
1990-1994 
1990-1995 
1991-1995 

1990-1994 
1991-1994 

400 

2,750 

4,284 
1,870 

78 

9.  RESEARCH  AND  DEVELOPMENT 

9.1.  Introduction 

Pursuant  to  Articles  4.1  (g),  5  and  12.1  (b)  of  the  Convention,  this  chapter  gives 

information  about  research  efforts  on  physical  and  human  aspects  of  global  climate 

change,  with  a  view  to  supporting  the  process  of  policy-making.  These  research  efforts 

are  described  in  the  light  of  the  Second,  Third  and  Fourth  Community  Framework 

Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (Section  9.2  to  9.4).  Within  these  framework 

programmes,  the  specific  research  programmes  on  environment,  energy  and  marine 

science  are  of  particular  importance  to  climate  change  (another  action  about  RDT 

cooperation  with  third  countries,  also  important  for  the  Climate  Change  and  Developing 

Countnes  issue,  is  presented  in  section  8.3). 

The  framework  programmes  have  given  emphasis  to  the  integration  of  environmental 

concerns 

into 

the  EC's  activities  over 

time.  Protection  of 

the  environment  and 

improvement  of  the  quality  of  life  were  already 

important  objectives  of  the  third 

framework  programme.  These  objectives  have  been  considerably  reinforced  in  the  fourth 

framework  programme,  both  through  its  overall  commitment  to  promote  sustainable 

development,  and  through  the  substantial  increase  in  financial  resources  allocated  to 

environment  (CEC,  1994d). 

9.2.  Second  Framework  Programme  of  Research 

and  Development 

During  the  Second  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development  (1987-1991), 

research  projects  regarding  climate  change  were  included  in  the  European  Programme  on 

Climatology  and  natural  Hazards 

(EPOCH), 

the  Science  and  Technology 

for 

Environmental  Protection  (STEP)  programme  and  the  Remote  Sensing  programme  of  the 

Joint  Research  Centre. 

From  these  three  programmes,  EPOCH  had  the  strongest  liaison  with  the  climate  change 

issue.  The  programme  consisted  of  the  following  research  areas: 

-  past  climates  and  climate  change; 

-  climate  processes  and  models; 

-  climatic  impacts  and  climate-related  hazards; 

-  seismic  hazard. 

79 

The  research  activities  on  past  climates  and  climate  change  focused  on  the  functioning  of 

the  climate  system  (atmosphere,  oceans,  biosphere,  cryosphere)  apart  from  changes 

induced  by  human  activities.  The  general  goal  of  the  research  on  climate  processes  and 

models  was  to  understand  the  mechanisms  ruling  the  various  components  of  the  climate 

system,  and  their  interactions,  in  order  to  improve  the  physical  formulation  and  the 

parametrization  of  climate  models,  and  hence  the  ability  to  predict  climate  change. 

The  research  on  climatic  impacts  and  climate-related  hazards  aimed  to  reach  insight  in 

the  effects  of  climate  change  upon  various  sectors  of  the  European  environment,  such  as 

agriculture.  Finally,  the  research  on  seismic  hazard  was  oriented  on  developing  and 

improving  of  the  means  for  predicting,  preventing  and  mitigating  the  seismic  risk  in 

Europe. 

EPOCH  also  covered  a  large  part  of  the  research  subjects  foreseen  in  the  International 

Geosphere-Biosphere  Programme 

(IGBP), 

the  World  Climate  Research  Programme 

(WCRP)  and  the  World  Climate  Impact  Programme  (WCIP). 

9.3.  Third  Framework  Programme  of  Research 

and  Development 

The  Third  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development 

(1990-1994) 

is 

organised  around  15  specific  programmes.  Three  of  these  programmes  are  relevant  with 

regard  to  climate  change,  namely  environment,  energy  technology  and  marine  science 

and  technology. 

Environment 

The  emphasis  on  environmental 

research  has 

increased 

in 

the 

third 

framework 

programme:  261  MECU  have  been  devoted  to  the  Environment  programme. 

The  Joint  Research  Centre  (JRC)  contributed  through  its  own  programme  257  MECU  to 

the  Environment  programme. 

In  this  programme,  attention  was  paid  for  the  first  time  to  socio-economic  environmental 

research.  The  Environment  programme  included  four  research  areas: 

-  participation  in  global  change  programmes; 

-  environmental  technologies  and  engineering; 

- 

- 

research  on  economic  and  social  aspects  of  environmental  issues,  and 

technological  and  natural  risks. 

A  significant  proportion  of  the  Environment  programme  is  dedicated  to  research  with 

direct  relevance 

to  global  climate  change.  The  part  of  the  programme  concerning 

climatology  and  natural  hazards  consists  of  the  following  research  themes: 

80 

-  natural  climate  change, 

-  anthropogenic  climate  change; 

-  climate  change  impacts; 

-  desertification  in  the  Mediterranean  area; 

-  natural  risks. 

The  research  in  the  area  of  natural  climate  change  focused  mainly  with  the  reconstruction 

of  past  climates  and  past  environmental  conditions.  The  two  main  purposes  of  the 

research  were  to  gain  more  insight  into  the  global  climate  system  by  analysing  and 

modelling  past  climates  and  climate  change,  and  to  help  validate  and  improve  climate 

models  by  the  provision  of  high  quality  reconstructions  for  reference  and  testing. 

The  main 

issues  within 

the 

theme  of  anthropogenic  climate  change  were 

the 

understanding  of  the  present  climate  and  the  prediction  of  climate  change.  The  theme 

mainly  focused  on  the  development  and  application  of  complete  climate  models  to 

predict  future  climate. 

The  research  on  climate  change  impacts  focused  on  prediction  and  quantification  of  the 

effects  of  climate  change,  including  primary  physical  effects  as  well  as  secondary  effects 

on  important  socio-economic  sectors.  The  main  research  themes  were  centred  around  the 

consequences  of  sea  level  change,  and  climatic  impacts  on  water  resources,  forests  and 

agriculture  in  Europe. 

Part  of  the  Environment  programme  was  for  example  the  ECOCRAFT  project  which 

originally  started  in  1991  under  the  EPOCH  programme.  The  acronym  ECOCRAFT  is 

based  on  "European  Collaboration  on  C02  Responses  Applied  to  Forests  and  Trees".  The 
project  was  concerned  with  the  impacts  of  rising  carbon  dioxide  and  temperature  on  the 

growth  processes  of  trees,  the  use  of  models  to  upscale  the  responses  of  the  processes  to 

the  scale  of  forests  over  tens  of  years  and  the  use  of  flux  measurements  to  test  the 

models,  as  well  as  to  measure  directly  the  sequestration  of  carbon  by  European  forests. 

The  research  on  desertification 

in  the  Mediterranean  area  was  aimed  at  a  thorough 

understanding  of  the  desertification  phenomenon,  its  genesis  and  evolution,  and  to 

provide  guidelines  for  management  of  desertification  prone-areas  as  well  as  for  protecting 

and  rehabilitating  such  areas. 

The  research  on  natural  risks  was  divided  into  at  one  hand  meteorological  and  telluric 

research  and  at  the  other  hand  research  on  wildfires.  Meteorological  and  telluric  research 

was  orientated  towards  the  physical  causes,  frequency,  severity  and  means  of  prediction 

and  hazard  reduction  of  natural  disasters,  such  as  storms,  floods,  landslides,  earthquakes 

and  volcanic  eruptions.  A  major  aim  was  to  assess  the  European  vulnerability  to  these 

natural  hazards  and  to  improve  the  scientific  basis  for  disaster  reduction.  Research  on 

wildfires  was  aimed  at  understanding  the  factors,  natural  and  human,  favounng  or 

hindering  the  occurrence  of  wildfires,  in  order  to  develop  suitable  means  for  forecasting, 

prevention  and  risk  management. 

In  order  to  promote  and  facilitate  coordinated  research  and  to  utilise  this  research  for  the 

various  policies  of  the  European  Community,  the  Commission  has  established 

the 

European  Network  for  Research  in  Global  CHange  (ENRICH).  ENRICH's  major  role  is 

to  support  policy  objectives  by  acting  as  a  clearinghouse  for  the  exchange  of  information 

and  by  promoting  cooperation  in  research  and  capacity  building.  In  addition  to  promoting 

collaboration 

in  Western  Europe,  ENRICH  also  helps  to  encourage  the  endogenous 

research  capabilities  in  developing  countries  mainly,  but  not  exclusively,  in  Africa  and 

the  Mediterranean  Basin,  and  to  support  relevant  research  in  the  CEECs  and  the  former 

Soviet  Union.  An  ENRICH  Council,  Office,  Liaison  Offices  and  an  Interservice  Group 

have  been  set  up  to  carry  out  the  functions  of  the  network. 

Energy  technology 

Two  successive  programmes  regarding  new  energy  technologies,  JOULE  I  (1989-1992) 

and  JOULE  II  (1990-1994),  have  been  established  by  the  Community.  Both  programmes 

addressed 

the  development  of  clean  and  efficient  energy  technologies 

in  the  three 

following  areas:  rational  use  of  energy  (in  industry,  transport  and  building),  advanced 

technologies  for  fossil  fuels  and  renewable  energies.  An  additional  activity  relative  to  the 

elaboration  of  energy-environment  models  and  analysis  of  RTD  strategies  was  also  part 

of  these  programmes;  such  an  activity  has  provided 

background  information  for  the 

Community  C02  strategy 
through  a  major  study  called  "C02-Crash  programme", 
addressing  the  cost-effectiveness  of  the  different  options  and  the  economic  impacts  of  the 

taxation.  In  general  terms,  the  environment  dimension  which  was  already  an  integral  part 

of  JOULE  I  has  been  strengthened  in  JOULE  II.  Furthermore,  an  accompanying  action 

has'  been  undertaken  consisting  of  associating  Eastern  countries  teams  within  some 

research  projects  of  JOULE  II.  The  budget  for  both  programmes  was  respectively  122 

MECU  and  258  MECU. 

SESAME  is  a  documentary  or  full  text  data  base  containing  information  on  more  than 

6,000  Community  energy  projects  and  7,000  energy  projects  administered  by  the  Member 

States  and  Norway.  The  SESAME  data  base  contains  administrative  and 

technical 

information  on  RTD  projects  in  the  following  sectors: 

-  energy  saving  in  buildings,  industry,  transport  and  the  energy  industry; 

- 

solid  fuels; 

-  biomass  and  energy  from  waste; 

-  geothermal  energy; 

- 

small  hydroelectricity; 

-  solar  energy  (photovoltaics  and  thermal); 

82 

-  wind  energy; 

-  hydrocarbon  technology  (oil  and  gas). 

Marine  sciences  and  technology 

The  European  Community's  Marine  Science  and  Technology  programmes  (MAST)  aim 

to  introduce  the  necessary  Community  dimension  to  various  on-going  research  activities 

of  the  Member  States.  MAST  intends  to  contribute  to  establishing  a  scientific  and 

technological  basis  for 

the  exploration,  exploitation,  management  and  protection  of 

Europe's  coastal  waters  and  the  seas  surrounding  the  EC's  Member  States  and  thereby 

achieve  a  better  balance  in  the  marine  science  potential  of  the  various  areas  of  the  EC. 

MAST  II  (1991-1994)  has  superseded  the  first  MAST  pilot  programme  (1989-1992). 

MAST  IPs  geographical  scope  has  expanded  and  also  included  the  North  Atlantic  Ocean 

and  the  subpolar  Arctic  seas.  The  budget  of  MAST  II  amounted  to  approximately  100 

MECU,  aimed  at  supporting  collaborative  research  projects  and 

improving  marine 

research  in  Europe.  The  fundamental  aim  of  MAST  II  is  to  contribute  to  knowledge  of 

the  marine  environment  and  its  variability,  in  order  to  improve  its  management  and 

protection  and  to  predict  its  change. 

The  MAST  II  programme  was  divided  into  5  areas: 

-  marine  sciences; 

-  coastal  zone  science  and  engineering; 

-  marine  technology; 

-  supporting  initiatives; 

- 

large  scale  targeted  projects. 

9.4.  Fourth  Framework  Programme  of  Research 

and  Development 

The  Fourth  Framework  Programme  of  Research  and  Development 

(1994-1998) 

is 

organised  around  nineteen  specific  programmes.  Three  of  these  programmes  are  of  direct 

relevance  with  regard  to  climate  change,  namely  environment  and  climate,  clean  and 

efficient  energy  technologies,  marine  science  and  technology.  The  specific  programmes 

orr  agriculture  and  fishenes,  transport,  the  Joint  Research  Centre  and  cooperation  with 

third  countries  and  international  organisations  are  more  indirect  related  to  climate  change. 

Environment  and  climate 

.The  fourth 

framework  programme 

includes  a  specific  programme  of  research  and 

technological  development,  including  demonstration,  in  the  field  of  environment  and 

climate  (1994-1998).  For  this  programme  an  amount  of  532  MECU  has  been  reserved. 

The  programme  covers  four  themes: 

83 

- 

the  natural  environment,  environmental  quality  and  global  change; 

-  environmental  technologies; 

- 

space  techniques  applied  to  environmental  monitoring  and  research; 

and 

-  human  dimensions  of  environmental  change. 

A  first  objective  of  the  programme  on  environment  and  climate  is  to  understand  the  basic 

processes  underlying  environmental  change,  in  particular  those  of  the  climate  system, 

including  the  atmosphere,  the  oceans,  the  land  surfaces,  the  continental  ice  masses  and 

the  biosphere.  Detailed  analysis  of  human  and  social  behaviour  and  of  the  patterns  of 

economic  development  responsible  for  adverse  effects  on  the  environment  will  be  carried 

out  in  parallel  with  the  study  of  natural  processes. 

A  second  objective  is  to  improve  assessment  of  the  consequences  of  climate  and  other 

environmental  change.  Consequences  for  the  natural  environment  and  for  society  will  be 

considered,  including  ecosystems,  societal  and  economic  activities,  energy  demand  and 

consumption,  and 

the  use  and  management  of  natural  resources,  especially  water, 

agriculture,  forestry  and  coastal  resources. 

A  third  objective 

is  to  contribute  to  the  technological  development  necessary 

for 

environmental  observation,  monitoring  and 

research, 

including  methodologies  and 

technologies  for  the  monitoring,  warning  and  management  of  natural  hazards.  Particular 

attention  will-be  paid  in  this  respect  to  applied  space  technologies. 

JRC  will  also  contribute  through  its  own  programme  of  direct  activities,  to  the  attainment 

of 

the  Community  RTD  objectives 

in 

the  areas  covered  by 

the  programme  on 

Environment  and  climate.  In  addition,  the  JRC  will  make  a  significant  contribution  to  the 

implementation  of  the  Centre  for  Earth  Observation  (CEO). 

The  EC  is  now  initiating  the  implementation  of  ENRICH  in  the  context  of  the  Fourth 

Framework  programme.  ENRICH  will  provide  a  basic  mechanism  for  facilitating  the 

coordination  of  global  change  research 

in  the  EC's  programmes,  notably  those  on 

Environment  and  climate  research,  Marine  Sciences  and  Technologies  and  the  Specific 

Programme  on  Cooperation  with  Third  Countries  and  International  Organisations.  On  the 

international  scene,  ENRICH  would  aim  to  collaborate  with  the  various  international 

entities  involved  in  global  change  research.  The  international  research  effort  in  this  field 

requires,  in  turn,  harmonised  commitments  of  financial  resources. 

Clean  and  efficient  energy  technologies 

A  specific  programme  on  non-nuclear  energies  will  be  continued  under  the  Fourth 

Framework  Programme.  This  programme, 

called 

"Clean 

and  Efficient  Energy 

84 

Technologies"  (CEET),  merges  for  the  first  time  both  the  R&D  and  the  Demonstration 

(for  this  reason 

it  is  also  called  JOULE-THERMIE  by  reference 

to  the  previous 

programmes).  The  motivation  of  the  RTD  strategy  supporting  the  new  programme  is  to 

ensure  the  energy  security,  considered  in  the  broadest  sense  i.e.  ensuring  reliable  energy 

services  at  affordable  cost  and  conditions.  The  main  driving  force  for  technological 

change  are  the  environmental  effects  due  to  production  and  use  of  energy  (in  particular 

the  C02  issue).  Furthermore,  the  RTD  policy  must  integrate  regional  dimensions  and 
international 
must  build  on  concertion  with  other  Community  policies, 

including 

cooperation. 

The  budget  of  the  CEET  programme  is  967  MECU  for  the  period  1994-1998.  The  main 

component  of  the  programme  is  technological  development  in  the  same  areas  mentioned 

for  JOULE  and  THERMIE;  R&D  will  give  more  emphasis  to  the  introduction  of 

renewable  energy 

(including 

third  countries),  whereas  demonstration  activities  will 

support  more  substantially  rational  use  of  energy  and  fossil  fuel  technologies.  A  wide 

range  of  activities  for  the  RTD  strategy  definition  will  be  undertaken:  global  analysis, 

socio-economic  research,  energy,  environment  and  economy  modelling;  these  activities 

will  be  focused 

in  particular  on  the  Climate  Change  issue  and  its  relationship  with 

technological  change  and  sustainable  development.  Exchange  of  information  with  third 

countries  and  dissemination  of  tools  and  results  will  be  part  of  this  activity. 

Marine  science  and  technology 

The  MAST  III  programme  (1994-1998)  extends,  develops  and  refocuses  the  activities 

carried  out  under  the  first  two  MAST  programmes  i.e.  the  pilot  phase  of  1989-1992  and 

the  MAST  II  programme  1990-1994.  For  the  period  considered,  MAST  III  is  a  step  in  a 

longer  term  strategy  which  will  enable  Europe  to  make  a  full  contribution  to  the 

knowledge  and  management  of  the  oceans.  Its  general  objective  is  to  foster  the  scientific 

knowledge  and  technological  development  necessary  to  understand  how  marine  systems 

function  at  basin  scales,  in  order  to  prepare  for  sustainable  use  of  the  oceans  consistent 

with  the  preservation  of  marine  environmental  quality,  and  to  determine  their  role  in 

global  change. 

The  programme  comprises  four  areas  of  activity: 

-  marine  science; 

- 

strategic  marine  research; 

-  marine  technology; 

- 

supporting  initiatives. 

research 

activities  may,  where  appropriate, 

The 
international 
programmes  such  as  IGBP,  WCRP  and  HDP,  as  well  as  with  certain  aspects  of  the 
development  of  the  Global  Ocean  Observing  System  (GOOS). 

liaise  with  other 

85 

ETERNE 

The  EC  launched  in  1991,  together  with  the  US  Department  of  Energy,  a joint  research 

project  to  assess  the  external  costs  of  fuel  cycles.  On  the  European  side  the  project  is  co-

funded  by  the  JOULE  programme.  It  is  known  as  the  Externe  project.  In  the  first  phase, 

the  teams  jointly  developed  the  conceptional  approach  and  the  methodology  and  shared 

scientific  information  for  its  application  to  a number  of  fuel  cycles. 

The  EC  further  co-financed  the  second  phase  of  the  project  under  JOULE-II.  It  was 

started  in  1993  and  has  been  completed  in  1995.  The  main  objectives  were  to  apply  the 

methodology  to  a  wide  range  of  different  fossil,  nuclear  and  renewable  fuel  cycles  for 

power  generation  and  energy  conservation  options.  In  addition,  the  general  methodology 

and  accounting  framework  were  extended  to  address  the  evaluation  of  externalities 

associated  with  the  use  of  energy  in  the  transport  and  domestic  sectors. 

The  third  phase  of  the  project  has  been  undertaken  within  the  ECs  Fourth  Framework 

Programme  and  will  concentrate  on  the  dissemination  of  the  results  and  the  application 

of  the  accounting  framework  in  support  of  policy  issues  and  decision  making. 

9.5.  Summary 

Table  9.1  gives  an  overview  of  budgets  which  have  been  spent  on  or  are  reserved  for 

research  programmes  in  the  areas  of  climate  change,  non-nuclear  energy  and  marine 

sciences.  The  table  shows  that  research  budgets  in  all  three  areas  have  been  largely 

increased  during  the  last  years.  The  expenditures  on  research  projects  primarily  oriented 

towards  climate  change  are  included  in  the  total  budgets  in  Table  9.1;  no  data  are 

available  to  specify  these  expenditures  separately. 

86 

Table  9.1. 

Summary  of  expenditures  on  EC  research  programmes  relevant  to  the 
climate  change  issue. 

Research  programme 

Time  period 

Total 
(MECU) 

budget 

Environment  and  Climate  : 

STEP 
EPOCH 
Environment 
Environment  and  climate 
Joint  Research  Center: 

Non-nuclear  energy: 

JOULE  I 
JOULE  II 
CEET 

Marine  sciences: 

MAST  I 
MAST  II 
MAST  III 

1989-1992 
1989-1992 
1991-1994 
1994-1998 
1991-1994 
1994-1998 

1989-1992 
1990-1994 
1994-1998 

1989-1992 
1991-1994 
1994-1998 

75 
40 
261 
532 
150 
320 

122 
258 
967 

50 
118 
228 

87 

10.  EDUCATION,  TRAINING  AND  PUBLIC  AWARENESS 

10.1.  Introduction 

The  success  of  policies  and  measures  addressing  the  problem  of  climate  change  will 
depend  to  a  large  extent  on  the  decisions  and  actions  of  the  general  public.  Education, 
training  and  increasing  public  awareness  through  information  campaigns  are  important 
tools  to  enable  a  change  of  consumer  attitudes  and  choices.  The  fifth  Action  Programme 
of  the  EC  "Towards  Sustainability"  emphasizes  that  it  is  essential  to  provide  adequate 
information  to  the  general  public  on  the  relation  between  the  activities  of  individuals  and 
environmental  pollution  (by  e.g.  awareness  campaigns),  and  to  offer  alternatives  to  the 
general  public  to  reduce  environmental  pollution.  Also,  the  active  involvement  of  and 
participation  of  non-governmental  organisations  (NGOs),  trade  unions  and  professional 
associations  is  highly  valued  in  the  fifth  Action  Programme. 

On  the  basis  of  existing  Community  legislation  on  freedom  of  access  to  information  on 
the  environment  (90/313/EEC),  local  and  regional  authorities  can  facilitate  greater  public 
involvement  in  environmental  protection.  The  objective  of  this  directive  is  to  ensure 
freedom  of  access  to,  and  dissemination  of,  information  on  the  environment  held  by 
public  authorities  and 
terms  and  conditions  on  which  such 
information  should  be  made  available  (Article  1 of  the  directive). 

to  set  out  the  basic 

This  chapter  respectively  deals  with  information,  education  and  training  programmes 
(Section  10.2),  dissemination  of  research  results  (Section  10.3)  and  research  activities 
regarding  education,  training  and  public  awareness  (Section  10.4). 

10.2.  Information,  education  and training  programmes 

At  the  EC  level,  information,  education  and  training  programmes  concerning  climate 
the  scope  of  (sectoral)  policy 
take  place  within 
change  and  energy  use  mainly 
programmes,  such  as  energy  supply,  transport,  urban  development  and  agriculture. 

Energy  supply 
Information 
for  the  wider  public  is  a  key  element  of  the  SAVE,  ALTENER  and 
THERMIE/JOULE  programmes.  These  programmes  have  been  described  extensively  in 
the  provision  of 
Chapter  4.  This  section  only  describes 
information.  SAVE  has  set  up  an  information  exchange  network  on  energy  efficiency 
aimed  at  all  the  levels  of  the  EC,  the  goal  being  that  all  EC  citizens  will  ultimately  be 
aware  that  energy  efficiency  not  only  provides  financial  benefits  but  brings  benefits  to 

the  relevant  parts  about 

88 

levels  of  renewable  energy 

the  environment  as  well.  ALTENER  has  also  established  an  information  exchange 
network  and  has  launched  in  1994  a  major  information  programme  stressing  the  benefits 
in  the  EC's  energy  mix  and  the  resulting 
of  greater 
levels.  THERMIE's 
environmental  benefits,  especially 
dissemination  actions  include  a  network  of  some  forty  Organisations  for  the  Promotion  of 
Energy  Technology  (OPET)  focusing  on  distributing  and  promoting  innovative  energy 
technologies  across  Europe,  including  Central  and  Eastern  European  countries  and  the 
former  Soviet  Union. 

terms  of  C02  emission 

in 

An  extensive  part  of  the  SYNERGY  initiative  is  focusing  on  training  activities  (see  also 
Section  8.2)  relating  to  the  climate  change  problem  and  emissions  of  greenhouse  gases. 
The  following  activities  may  be  mentioned  in  this  respect: 

training  courses  in  India; 
training  courses  in  China,  for  example  about  clean  coal  combustion  technology; 
seminar  on  energy  and  environment  in  Shanghai; 
courses  about  energy  planning  and  savings  in  Latin  America; 
training  courses  on  energy  saving  in  Estonia. 

Transport 
The  European  Community's  evolving  strategy  for  transport  is  most  recently  expounded  in 
the  White  Paper  on  The  Future  Development  of  the  Common  Transport  Policy:  A  Global 
Framework  for  Sustainable  Mobility.  The  strategy 
includes  the  promotion  of  more 
environmentally  rational  use  of  the  pnvate  car,  along  with  changes  in  driving  rules  and 
habits. 

Urban  development 
The  EC  supports  pan-European  environmental  campaigns  of  local  authorities  aiming  at 
local  sustainability,  or  significant 
local  contribution  to  global  sustainability,  such  as 
Sustainable  Cities  and  Towns,  the  Car  Free  Cities  Club  and  Cities  for  Climate  Protection. 

The  Sustainable  Cities  Project  was  launched  by  the  Expert  Group  on  the  Urban 
Environment,  to  run  from  1993  to  1995.  The  expert  group  was  established  by  the 
European  Commission  in  1991  following  the  publication  of  the  Green  Paper  on  the 
Urban  Environment.  The  principle  aims  of  the  Sustainable  Cities  Project  are  to  contribute 
to  the  development  of  thinking  about  sustainability  in  European  urban  settings,  to  foster  a 
wide  exchange  of  experience,  to  disseminate  best  practice  about  sustainability  at  local 
level,  and,  in  the  longer  term,  to  formulate  recommendations  to  influence  policy  making 
at  Community,  Member  State,  regional  and  local  level,  as  called  for  in  the  Council 
resolution  of  1991  (Fudge  &  Mills,  1994). 

The  planned  outputs  of  the  Sustainable  Cities  Project  are  a  policy  report,  a  good  practice 
guide  and  a  database  of  relevant  practice.  The  exchange  of  information  and  experience  is 
being  further  encouraged  through  the  European  Campaign  for  Sustainable  Cities  and 

89 

local  authorities  and  253  representatives  of 

Towns  launched  in  May  1994  during  the  First  European  Conference  on  Sustainable 
Cities  and  Towns  held  in  Aalborg,  Denmark.  At  this  conference,  the  Campaign  was 
joined  by  80  European 
international 
organisations,  national  governments,  scientific  institutes,  consultants  and  individuals  who 
signed  the  Aalborg  Charter.  According  to  the  Charter,  the  signatories  take  responsibility 
for  the  global  climate.  It  is  stated  that  the  significant  risks  posed  by  global  warming  to 
the  natural  and  built  environments  and  to  future  human  generations  require  a  response 
sufficient 
into  the 
to  stabilize  and  then  to  reduce  emissions  of  greenhouse  gases 
atmosphere  as  soon  as  possible.  Renewable  energy  sources  are  mentioned  as  the  only 
sustainable  alternatives  for  the  present  ones. 

A  second  European  Conference  on  Sustainable  Cities  and  Towns  is  planned  for  1996  in 
Lisbon,  Portugal.  This  conference  will  assess  progress  on  sustainability,  receive  the 
second  draft  policy  report  from  the  expert  group  and  ensure  continuation  of  the 
Sustainable  Cities  and  Towns  Campaign  (Fudge  &  Mills,  1994). 

In  June  1992,  the  Environment  Commissioner  has  proposed  to  establish  a  network  of  car 
free  cities  and  to  organize  a  conference  about  the  topic.  The  main  purpose  of  this 
proposal  was  to  start  a  discussion  about  the  daily  traffic  problems  in  cities,  to  set  up  a 
platform  for  the  exchange  of  experiences  and  to  find  solutions  for  improvement  of  the 
urban  environment.  This  proposal  was  adopted  by  the  European  Commission.  Finally,  the 
conference  about  car  free  cities  was  held  on  24  and  25  March  1994  in  Amsterdam.  As  a 
result  of  the  conference  a  charter  was  drafted  and  signed  by  the  representatives  of  40 
European  cities.  According  to  the  charter,  one  of  the  explicit  objectives  is  to  stimulate 
the  efficient  use  of  energy  and  to  diminish  emissions  by  traffic  which  contribute  to  ozone 
and  greenhouse  problems  (Car  Free  Cities  Club,  1994).  It  is  considered  necessary  to  push 
back  the  use  of  private  cars  and  to  stimulate  the  use  of  less  harmful  means  of  transport. 

the 

the  European  Secretariat  of 

In  1993,  the  Convention  of  European  Municipal  Leaders  on  Climate  Change  was 
organized  by 
for  Local 
Environmental  Initiatives  (ICLEI),  under  the  auspices  of  the  Commission  of  the  EC  and 
the  United  Nations  Environment  Programme  (UNEP).  The  outcome  of  the  Convention 
was  the  launching  of  the  Campaign  European  Cities  for  Climate  Protection.  The  aim  of 
the  joint  campaign  on  saving  energy  and  reducing  C02  emissions  is  to  help  nations 
implement 
to  support 
the  goals  set  at  the  Rio  summit  as  fast  as  possible  and 
municipalities  in  their  efforts  to  fight  the  causes  of  climate  change. 

International  Council 

ICLEI,  co-sponsored  by  the  European  Commission,  also  organised  the  second  Local 
Government  Leaders'  Summit  on  Climate  Change  held  in  Berlin  back  to  back  to  the  first 
Conference  of  the  Parties  to  the  UN  FCCC.  This  summit  on  climate  change 
served  to 
exchange  information  on  innovative  local  policies  and  practices  and  explored  possible 
future  strategies.  The  summit,  attended  by  159  municipal  leaders,  issued  on  29  March 

90 

1995  a  Communiqué,  in  which,  amongst  others,  the  local  authorities  are  called  upon  to 
develop  local  action  plans  to  reduce  C02  emissions  20%  by  2005. 

In  the  framework  of  the  "Energy  Management  in  Regions  and  Cities"  initiative,  the 
Commission  encouraged  the  setting  up  of  the  ENERGY-CITES  network  which  aims  at 
the  implementation  of  a  sustainable  use  of  energy  in  urban  areas.  Through  the  creation  of 
Cities  Energy  Agencies  it  is  hoped  that  the  elected  people  and  citizen  will  perceive  more 
the  challenge  and  the  potential  of  good  energy  management.  This  should 
properly 
contribute  to  reduce  consumption  in  cities  and  to  promote  local  and  new  energies  which 
should  have  impact  on  the  urban  and  global  environment  but  also  on  the  life  quality  in 
urban  areas.  This  approach  will  be  strengthened  within  the  SAVE-II  programme. 

Agriculture 

Concerning  agricultural  soils,  since  1992,  efforts  are  undertaken  to  promote  "integrated 
control"  by  in  particular  training  activities  to  reach  an  equilibrium  between  input  of 
nutrients  and  the  absorption  capacity  of  soils  and  plants.  This  will  lead  in  the  future  to  a 
reduction  of  N20  emissions  from  the  application  of  fertilizers. 

10.3.  Dissemination  of  research  results 

Training  and  education  are  also  important  parts  of  the  accompanying  measures  of  the 
European  Community  research  programmes.  Activities  with  regard  to  the  EPOCH,  the 
Environment  and  the  Environment  and  Climate  programmes  (see  chapter  9)  are  pursued 
through: 

the  European  School  of  Climatology  and  Natural  Hazards,  through  annual  or 
biennial  courses  on  selected  relevant  topics,  to  be  held  in  cooperation  with 
various  European  research  institutions; 
sectoral  grants  for  European  graduates  and  post-graduates  in  fields  relevant  to 
climatology  and  natural  hazards; 
the  publication  of  a  series  of  books  and  monographs  dealing  with  important 

topics  relevant  to  the  research  areas  of  the  programme  and  meeting  the  needs  of 
different  kinds  of  concerned  audiences. 

The  European  School  of  Climatology  and  Natural  Hazards  takes  the  form  of  courses 
dealing  with  current  research  issues  in  the  fields  of  climate  and  natural  hazards.  The 
courses  which  are  organized  in  cooperation  with  leading  European  institutions,  are  open 
to  graduating  or  post-graduate  students  in  appropriate  fields  of  research. 

91 

Relevant  courses  in  relation  to  climate  change  organized  by  the  European  School 
of  Climatology  and  Natural  Hazards: 

.  Climatic  change  and  impacts:  A  general  introduction,  11-18  September 

1988; 

.  Climate  and  global  change,  4-12  Apnl  1990; 
.  Forest  fire  risk  and  management,  27  May-4  June  1992; 
.  Desertification  in  a  European  context.  Physical  and  socio-economic  aspects, 

6-13  October  1993; 

.  Statistical  analysis  of  climate  variability,  30  October-6  November  1993; 
.  Foreseen  in  1995:  Climate  change  impacts  on  agriculture,  forest  and  water 

resources. 

10.4.  Research  activities regarding education, 

training  and public  awareness 

The  Directorate  General  for  Environment,  Nuclear  Safety  and  Civil  Protection  (DGXI)  of 
the  Commission  of  the  European  Communities  commissioned  a  study  to  examine  the 
scope  for  improved  education,  training  and  public  awareness  activities  regarding  climate 
change  (CEC,  1992).  An  inventory  of  activities  which  are  taking  place  in  the  individual 
Member  States  lead  to  the  following  conclusions: 

their  C02  reduction  programmes,  many  EC  countries  are  not  placing 
to  support 

in 
sufficient  emphasis  on  educational  and  promotional  activities 
legislative  measures; 
large  differences  exist 

the  standard  of  energy  education  between  EC 

in 

countries; 
in  all  EC  countries,  a  need  for  energy  training  has  been  recognized  within 
industry,  commerce  and  educational  establishments. 

The  study  showed  that  an  integrated  packet  of  government-run  promotions  of  energy 
conservation,  backed  by  and 
is  most 
effective  to  address  climate  change. 

incentives  and  legislation 

linked  to  financial 

92 

LITERATURE 

Bengtsson,  L.  (1994).  Climate  of  the  21st  century.  1994.  Agricultural  and  Forest 

Meteorology  72  (1994)  3-29. 

Car  Free  Cities  Club  (1994).  Car  Free  Cities  Charter.  Brussels. 
Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1992).  Policy  Measures  in  the  Field  of 
Education,  Training,  Public  Information  and  Public  Relations  to  contribute  to  the 
limitation  of  C02  emissions.  DG  XI,  Contract  No  B91/B  -  3046/9493.  Brussels, 
March  1992. 

Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1993).  Towards  Sustainability:  A  European 
Community  programme  of  policy  and  action  in  relation  to  the  environment  and 
sustainable  development,  Brussels,  1 February  1993. 

Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1994a).  What  is  TACIS?  Partnerships  and 
cooperation  with  the  New  Independent  States.  DG  I,  TACIS  Information  Office, 
Brussels,  May  1994. 

Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1994b).  What  is  PHARE?  A  European 
integration  with  central  and  eastern  European 

Union 
countries.  DG  I,  PHARE  Information  Office.  Brussels,  September  1994. 

for  economic 

initiative 

Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1994c).  Evaluation  of  progress  on  integration 
of  the  environment  into  other  areas  of  Commission  policy  and  action.  Detailed  note. 
Brussels,  20  October  1994,  XVII/A/2/MD. 

Commission  of  the  European  Communities  (1994d).  Interim  review  of  implementation  of 
the  European  Community  programme  of  policy  and  action 
the 
environment  and  sustainable  development  "Towards  Sustainability".  COM  (94)  453 
final.  Brussels,  30  November  1994. 

in  relation 

to 

Cubasch,  U.,  J.  Waszkewitz,  G.C.  Hegerl,  J.Perlwitz  (1995).  Regional  climate  changes  as 
simulated  in  time-slice  experiments.  Max-Planck-Institut  fur  Météorologie.  Hamburg. 
ERM  (1992a).  Development  of  a  Framework  for  the  Evaluation  of  Policy  Options  to  deal 
with  the  Greenhouse  Effect.  Summary  report:  Assessment  of  strategic  options.  A 
for 
report  for 
Environment,  Nuclear  Safety  and  Civil  Protection.  Climate  Research  Unit  and 
Environmental  Resources  Limited. 

the  Commission  of  European  Communities,  Directorate  General 

ERM  (1992b).  Development  of  a  Framework  for  the  Evaluation  of  Policy  Options  to 
deal  with  the  Greenhouse  Effect.  Economic  valuation  of  impacts  and  adaptive 
measures  in  the  European  community.  A  report  for  the  Commission  of  European 
for  Environment,  Nuclear  Safety  and  Civil 
Communities,  Directorate  General 
Protection.  Climate  Research  Unit  and  Environmental  Resources  Limited. 

93 

Fudge,  C.  and  L.  Mills  (1994).  European  Sustainable  Cities.  First  report  EU  Expert 
the  Urban  Environment.  Sustainable  Cities  Project.  XI/822/94-EN. 

Group  on 
Brussels,  October  1994. 

Harrison,  P.A.,  and  M.L.  Parry  (1993).  The  effect  of  climate  change  on  agricultural  and 

horticultural  potential  in  Europe.  Environmental  Change  Unit.  University  of  Oxford. 
Paper  presented  at  EC  Symposium  on  Climate  Change  and  Climate  Change  Impacts, 
Copenhagen,  6-10  September  1993. 

Houghton,  J.T.,  B.A.  Callander,  S.K.  Varney  (eds.)  (1992).  Climate  Change  1992  -  The 

IPCC  Supplementary  Report  on 
University  Press,  Cambridge. 

the  IPCC  Scientific  Assessment.  Cambridge 

IPCC  (1994).  Radiative  forcing  of  climate  change.  The  1994  Report  of  the  Scientific 

Assessment  Working  Group 
Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change. 

of 

IPCC. 

Summary 

for 

Policy  Makers. 

Jones,  M.B., T.  Ashenden,  A.J.  Parsons,  H.  Payer,  A.  Raschi,  J.H.M.  Thornley  (1993). 

The  effects  of  rising  C02  and  changing  climate  on  grassland  communities  in  Europe. 
Paper  presented  at  EC  Symposium  on  Climate  Change  and  Climate  Change  Impacts, 
Copenhagen,  6-10  September  1993. 

Thimbal,  B.  et  al  (1995).  Sensitivity  to  prescribed  changes  in  sea-surface  temperature  and 

sea-ice  in  doubled  carbon  dioxide  experiments.  Meteo-France,  no.  42. 

Warrick,  R.A.,  E.M.  Barrow,  T.M.L.Wigley  (1990).  The  greenhouse  effect  and  its 

implications  for  the  European  Community.  Report  for 
the  Commission  of  the 
European  Communities.  Contract  No:  EV4C-0098-UK.  Climatic  Research  Unit, 

University  of  East  Anglia,  Norwich. 

94 

ABBREVIATIONS 

ALTENER 
CAP 
CEECs 
CEET 

CEO 
CIS 
CORINAIR 
EAGFF 

EC 
ECOCRAFT 

ECU 

ENRICH 
EUROSTAT 
EPOCH 
FEC 
FNEC 
GCOS 
GDP 
GIC 
GOOS 
GTOS 
GVA 
HDP 
IGBP 
INC 

IPCC 
JOULE 

JRC 
OECD 
OPET 

PACE 
PERU 
PHARE 

Programme  for  the  Promotion  of  Renewable  Energy  Sources 
Common  Agricultural  Policy 
Central  and  Eastern  European  Countries 
Programme  on  Clean  and  Efficient  Energy  Technologies 
Centre  for  Earth  Observation 
Commonwealth  of  Independent  States 
CORINE  AIR  emissions  inventory 
European  Agriculture  Guidance  and  Guarantee  Fund 
European  Community 

Project  on  European  Collaboration  on  C02  Responses  Applied  to 
Forests  and  Trees 
European  Currency  Unit 

European  Network  for  Research  In  global  Change 
Statistical  Office  of  the  European  Communities 
European  Programme  On  Climatology  and  natural  Hazards 
Final  Energy  Consumption 
Final  Non  Energy  Consumption 
Global  Climate  Observing  System 
Gross  Domestic  Product 
Gross  Inland  Consumption 
Global  Ocean  Observing  System 
Global  Terrestrial  Observing  System 
Gross  Value  Added 

Human  Dimension  of  global  environmental  change  Programme 
International  Geosphere-Biosphere  Programme 
Intergovernmental  Negotiating  Committee 
Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change 

Programme  on  Joint  Opportunities  for  Unconventional  or  Longer-
term  Energies 
Joint  Research  Centre 

the  Promotion  of  Energy 

for 

Organisation  for  Economic  Cooperation  and  Development 
Network  of  Organisations 
Technologies 
Action  programme  for  improving  the  efficiency  of  energy  use 
Planning  of  Energy  at  Regional  and  Urban  level 
Programme 
Restructuring  of  the  Economy 

and  Hungary  Assistance 

on  Poland 

to 

the 

95 

R &D 
RTD 
SAVE 
STEP 

SYNERGY 

TACIS 

THERMIE 
UN  FCCC 
UNO 
WCIP 
WCRP 

Research  and  Development 
Research,  Technological  development  and  Demonstration 

for  Environmental 

Programme  on  Specific  Actions  for  Vigorous  Energy  efficiency 
Programme  on  Science  and  Technology 
Protection 
Programme  for  energy  cooperation  with  all  non-Community 
countries 
Programme  on  Technical  Assistance  to  the  Commonwealth  of 
Independent  States 
Energy  Technology  Support  Programme 

United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change 
United  Nations  Organisations 
World  Climate  Impact  Programme 
World  Climate  Research  Programme 

Chemical  formulae  and  references 

CO 
C02 
CH4 
NMVOC 
N20 
NO. 

Gg 
toe 

Carbon  Monoxide 

Carbon  Dioxide 

Methane 
Non-Methane  Volatile  Organic  Compounds 
Nitrous  Oxide 
Nitrogen  Oxides 

Gigagram  (1  Gg  =  1 kilotonne) 
tonne  of  oil  equivalent 

96 

ANNEX  1 

NATIONAL  GREENHOUSE  GAS  EMISSION  INVENTORIES 

^-

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Austria  -  1990  (Gg). 

AUSTRIA 

CO, 

CH4 

N ,0 

N O. 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  enetgy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
1 a2 
1 a3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

57100 
57100 
16500 
12300 
16200 
12100 
IE 
IE 
IE 

0 

2100 

116 
24 
<1 
1 
15 
8 
IE 
IE 
IE 

92 

259 
230 
28 

228 

1.4 
1 
<1 
1 
<1 
<1 
IE 
IE 
IE 

1 

216 
216 
12 
47 
145 
12 
IE 
IE 
IE 

0 

1391 
1391 
6 
27 
582 
776 
IE 
IE 
IE 

0 

241 

269 
253 
<1 
24 
130 
99 
IE 
IE 
IE 

16 

130 

20 

60 

12 

<1 

26 

Total  emissions 

59200 

603 

222 

1692 

445 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

0" 
1200° 
4600* 

* CORINAIR  figures  used 
a)  Reconciliation  of  CORINAIR  and  EUROSTAT  transport  emission  estimates 
*  Eurostat  figures  used 

98 

Sources: 

National  Climate  report  of  the  Austrian  Federal  Government.  In  Compliance  with  the  obligations 
under  Art.  4.2  and  Art.  12  of  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  (Federal  Law  Gazette 
No.  414/1994).  Vienna,  1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  the  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

99 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Belgium  -  1990  (Gg). 

BELGIUM 

C 02 

CH4 

N20 

NOx 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
lal  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
Iron  &  steel 
2a 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

# 

71 
25 
<1 
5 
14 
6 
IE 
IE 

46 

14 

106400 
106400 
33800 
25500 
20600 
26500 
IE 
IE 

0 

7200 

2600 
4600 

0 

0 

0 

270 

8 
8 
2 
3 
1 
2 
IE 
IE 

0 

5 

0 

9 

# 

# 

330 
330 
56 
67 
195 
12 
IE 
IE 

0 

5 

0 

0 

# 

1085 
1085 
2 
110 
918 
55 
IE 
IE 

0 

108 

0 

0 

216 
203 
<1 
6 
291 
7 
IE 
IE 

13 

54 

90 

1 

900 

5 

0 

3 

16 

0 

900 

Total  emissions 

114500 

359 

22 

338 

1219 

361 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

13300 
2000 
10200 

a) 

* 

U = CORINAIR  figures  used 
a)  Reconciliation  of  CORINAIR  and  EUROSTAT  transport  emission  estimates 
*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 

100 

Sources: 

Belgian  National  Reduction  Programme  C02  emissions.  Under  the  "Council  Decision  concerning  a 
mechanism  of  monitoring  of  C02  emissions  and  other  greenhouse  gases  in  the  Community.  June  1994. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with *) 

C02  estimates  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise.  Figures  for  non-C02  gases  are 
CORN AIR  estimates. 

101 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in Denmark  -  1990  (Gg). 

N20 

NO. 

CO  NMVOC 

c 

2 
2 
1 
<1 
1 
0 
<1 
0 

269 
269 
96 
17 
138 
1 
5 
13 

770 
737 
39 
6 
547 
1 
139 
5 

129 
119 
2 
1 
106 
0 

33 

10 

34 
26 

2 
7 
2 

DENMARK 

Industrial  processes 
Iron  &  steel 

1  All  energy 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  & transformation 
la2  Industry 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  &gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
2 
2a 
2b  Non-ferrouw  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent  use 
3a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4  Agriculture 
4a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f  Savannah  burning 
6  Waste 
6a  Landfills 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

CO. 

50900 
50200 
25700 
6000 
11200 
1500 
5000 
800 

#  b 

700 
700 

1200 

1200 

0 

0 

0 

ca 

23 
12 
2 
1 
3 
0 
6 
0 

11 
8 
3 
0 

262 
137 
125 

122 
120 
2 

Total  emissions 

52100 

406 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

3000 
1900 
1000  * 

0 
<1 

11 

0 
<1 

270 

770 

5 
66 

1 
17 

165 

<1 
3 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 
*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
#  =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

102 

Sources: 

in  Denmark.  Ministry  of  the  Environment.  Danish  Environmental  Protection 

Climate  Protection 
Agency.  Denmark,  1994.  (National  Communication  under  the  UN  FCCC). 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with  #) 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a.  Denmark  included  C02  emissions  from  oil/gas  extraction  (including  flaring)  in  its  estimate.  Based  on  CORINAIR 
figures,  these  emissions  have  been  subtracted.  Denmark  corrected  its  fuel  combustion  emissions  for  electricity 
import/export.  This  correction  (6300  Gg of COj)  has been  ignored  for reasons  of  comparison. 

b.  Denmark  included  C02  emissions  from  oil/gas  extraction  (including  flaring)  in  category  1A. Therefore,  CORINAIR 

c. 

estimates  have  been  used. 
Correction  for  electricity  import/export  has  been  ignored  for  reasons  of  comparison  and  consistency  with  other 
Member  States. 

103 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Finland  -  1990  (Gg). 

FINLAND 

C02 

CH4 

N ,0 

N O, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  energy 
1 
Fuel  combustion 
la 
Energy  &  transformation 
al 
Industry 
1 a2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

291 
291 
64 
41 
160 
IE 
8 
18 

484 
484 
9 
32 
368 
IE 
61 
14 

156 
142 
0 
0 
79 
IE 
51 
12 

14 

15 
1 

12 

2 
48 

52600 
52600 
19500 
13700 
11500 
IE 
5800 
2100 

100 

1200 
100 

1100 

0 

7 
7 
1 
1 
5 
IE 

12 

19 
19 
1 
2 
8 
IE 
6 
2 

94 
83 
11 

139 
105 
34 

Total  emissions 

53900 

252 

22 

295 

487 

219 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

2800 
1400a) 
6000* 

*  Eurostat  figures  used 
U  CORINAIR  figures  used 
0  Reconciliation  of  EUROSTAT  and  CORINAIR  transport  emission  estimates 

104 

Sources: 

Finland's  National  Report  under  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change. 
Ministry  of  the  Environment,  January  1995. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

- 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  the  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

105 

FRANCE 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  eneigy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3 a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Rice  cultivation 

Landfills 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  France  -  1990  (Gg). 

co2 

349800 
349700 
60800 
71100 
128100 
23700 
58200 
7800 

200 

16700 
600 
500 
2500 

12700 
500 
0 

8000 
1800a 

6200 

CH4 

N ,0 

N O, 

CO 

NMVOC 

495 
184 
5 
6 
23 
3 
126 
21 

311 
106 
204 
3 

1640 
1444 
159 
10 
19 

748 
716 
15 
18 

12 
12 
2 
2 
4 
1 
3 
0 

103 

47 
55 

61 

61 

10047 
10047 
29 
596 
7062 
18 
1895 
447 

668 
623 
43 
2 

223 

223 

9 

1675 
1671 
163 
• 154 
1194 
18 
68 
74 

4 
4 

23 
3 

20 

4 

20 

20 

1667 
1530 
6 
8 
1199 
1 
250 
67 

137 
137 

86 
3 

18 
27 

39 
640 
253 
72 
74 
240 
18 

10 

13 
5 

Total emissions 

366500 

2896 

176 

1722 

10947 

2424 

Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 

8100  *b 
9000  * c 
39800  * 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
U = CORINAIR  figures  used 

106 

Sources: 

Program  National  de  Prevention  du  changement  de  climat.  Republique  Française,  Février,  1995. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with  #) 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a. 

It  has  been  assumed  that  the  estimate  of  1800  Gg  for  Landfills  applies  to  emissions  from  non-organic/non-recyclable 
material. 
The  national  report  of  France  does  not  provide  estimates  of  bunker  emissions. 
Reconciliation  of  Eurostat  and  CORINAIR  transport  estimates 

b. 
c. 

107 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Germany  -  1990  (Gg). 

GERMANY 

CO, 

CH4 

N,0 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

1 
All  energy 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  &  transformation 
1 a2  Industry 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  & gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
Iron  &  steel 
2a 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent use 
3 a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  & Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Savannah  burning 

Agriculture 

Landfills 

984000 
983000 
436000 
169000 
159000 
65000  a 
129000 
5000 
21000 

1000 
1000 

29000 

1000 
3000 

25000 

0 

1767 
228 
12 
16 
69 
5 
91 
1 
3 
31 
1539 
317 
1222 
11 
6 

2043 
1420 
623 

IE 

IE 

2397 
2318 
79 
IE 

33 
33 
15 
4 
9 
2 
3 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
100 

14 
86 

6 
80 

11 

69 

4 
IE 

2923 
2921 
672 
217 
1732 
35 
73 
2 
183 
7 
2 
2 
0 
21 
3 

13 

10104 
10078 
921 
899 
5990 
183 
1483 
35 
224 
234 
26 
26 
0 
664 
549 
113 
2 

1679 
1474 
11 
15 
1252 
10 
96 
2 
60 
28 
205 
205 
0 
129 
9 

59 

61 
1170 
480 
110 
200 
380 
0 

IE 

IE 

IE 

IE 

IE 

IE 

Total emissions 

1013000 

6218 

223 

2944 

10768 

2978 

8000 
11000 
68400 

* 

NE 
NE 

155 
50 

37 
58 

16 
9 

Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  = Not  Estimated 

*  = Eurostat  figures  used 

108 

Sources: 

"^ 

Environmental  Policy.  Climate  Protection 
in  Germany.  First  report  of  the  Federal  Republic  of 
Germany  Pursuant  to  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  September  1994. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 

Estimates  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a. 
b.  Germany  indicated  in  its  National  Report  that  C02  emissions  from  waste  incineration  are  included  in  energy  related 

Indicated  as  "Small  consumers"  in  Germany's  report. 

emissions. 
FNEC  emissions  were  not  included  in  Germany's  National  Report., Hence,  Eurostat  figures  have  been  used. 

c. 

109 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Greece  -  1990  (Gg). 

GREECE 

CO, 

CH< 

N20 

N O, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3 a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

77400 
77400 
43800 
9700 
15600 
8300 
IE 
IE 

a 
a 
*  b 
*  b 

369 
6 
1 
<1 
5 
<1 
IE 
IE 

0 

364 

8 
8 
7 
<1 
1 
<1 
IE 
IE 

502 
502 
111 
3 
386 
1 
IE 
IE 

777 
777 
6 
<1 
770 
1 
IE 
IE 

189 
185 
1 
<1 
184 
<1 
IE 
IE 

8100 

# 

34 

25 

22 

5900 

0 

0 

82 

363 

13 

341 

32 

600 

# 

202 

600 

Total  emissions 

86100 

936 

24 

543 

1143 

325 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

8200 
2000 
1800 

* 
*  c 
* 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
#  =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

110 

Sources: 

Climate  Change.  The  Greek  Action  Plan  for  the  abatement  of  C 02  and  other  greenhouse  gas 
emissions.  February  1995. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with  #) 

C 02  estimates  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise.  Figures  for  non-C02  gases  are 
CORN AIR  estimates. 

Footnotes: 
a. 
b. 

Taken  from  the C02  emission  tables  as an update  to the  1992 national  report 
C02  emission  estimates  provided  in  the  Greek  report  are  higher  than  Euro stat/CORIN AIR  figures.  The  report 
explains  that  estimates  for Energy  & Transformation  are higher  due to a higher  emission  factor  for  lignite.  However, 
it  provides  no explanation  why estimates  for the other  combustion  categories  are higher.  Therefore,  Eurostat  figures 
have  been  used. 
Reconciliation  Eurostat  and National  Programme  bunker  estimates. 

c. 

I ll 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in Ireland -  1990  (Gg). 

IRELAND 

CO, 

CH4 

N,0 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

1 
AH energy 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  & transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent use 
3 a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  & Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4 a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Savannah  burning 

Agriculture 

Landfills 

2 
2 
1 
<1 
<1 
<1 
1 
<1 

40 

40 

15 
5 
0 
<1 
1 
<1 
3 
<1 

10 
10 
<1 
0 

644 
551 
52 

39 
2 

136 
136 

29100 
29100 
10900 
5400 
4900 
1400 
5800 
700 

0 

1600 

0 

0 

50 

50 

111 
111 
46 
11 
45 
1 
5 
3 

390 
390 
3 
1 
305 
4 
76 
1 

38 

38 

1 

74 
71 
<1 
<1 
63 
<1 
8 
<1 

21 
6 
5 
5 
5 
83 

78 
4 

<1 

Total  emissions 

30720 

796 

42 

114 

429 

197 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

0 
1100 
1500 

* 

* 

100 

160 

5345 

2187 

364 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  = Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
M  =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

112 

Sources: 

Ireland.  Communication  under  the  UN  FCCC.  Prepared  for  the  Conference  of  the  Parties  in 
accordance  with  Article  12  of  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  Department  of  the 
Environment,  Ireland.  October  1994. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with #) 

Estimates  for  all greenhouse  gases  are taken  from  National  Report, unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a. 

Ireland's  national  communication  does not  provide  emissions  from  marine  bunkers. 

Other notes: 

Ireland  provides  in  its  national  communication  an estimate  of  NMVOC  emissions  from  land  use  change  and  forestry. 
However,  since  only  few  Member  States  have  provided  emissions  and/or  removals  from  land  use  change  and 
forestry,  this  category  has  not  been  included  in the  EU  emission  inventory  at  all. 

113 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Italy  -  1990  (Gg). 

ITALY 

CO, 

CH4 

N ,0 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

AH  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

Industrial  processes 
Iron  &  steel 

1 
la 
lal  Energy  &  transformation 
1 a2 
1 a3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
lbl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
2 
2a 
2b  Non-ferrouw  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

401400 
401400 
138400 
91300 
95600 
26300 
41200 
8100 
500 

0 

27600 
400 
1500 
2300 
0 
23000 
400 
0 

7300 
5100 

2200 

413 
66 
8 
10 
27 
2 
5 
3 

10 
347 
337 
10 
4 
2 

1860 
654 
887 
64 
158 
97 

1611 
1526 
34 
51 

42 
42 
20 
10 
4 
3 
5 
<1 

15 

15 

1981 
1981 
462 
377 
967 
22 
34 
109 
8 
2 
0 

<1 

7155 
7155 
41 
656 
5645 
27 
55 
535 
3 
193 
0 

371 
173 
182 
2 
14 

20 
0 

59 

32 

1704 

1 
57 
1 

<1 

32 

14 

1704 

29 

29 

1276 
1137 
27 
19 
996 
2 
8 
69 
1 
15 
140 
140 

73 
3 
<1 
9 
41 

538 
238 
49 
64 
187 
492 

381 

14 
97 

22 
22 

<1 

Total  emissions 

436300 

3889 

116 

2034 

9258 

2401 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

8600  * 
4800  * * 

30200  * 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
U = CORINAIR  figures  used 

114 

Sources: 

First  Italian  National  Communication  to  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  Ministry  of 
the  Environment,  January  1995. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

- 

Italy's  national  programme  does  not  provide  estimates  according  to  the  IPCC  format.  Nationally  reported 
tables  are  given  in  terms  of  fuel  and  end  use.  Therefore,  Eurostat  and  CORINAIR  figures  have  been  used 
for  C02  emissions, for the non-C02 gases  CORINAIR  estimates  have  been  used. 

Footnotes: 
* 

Reconciliation  of  Eurostat  and  CORINAIR  transport  estimates. 

115 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Luxembourg  -  1990  (Gg). 

N ,0 

<1 

<1 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

154 
154 
<1 
98 
48 
1 
5 
1 

17 
17 

14 
12 

<1 
11 

4 
1 
<1 
1 
2 
<1 

23 
23 
<1 
11 
11 
0 
1 

<1 

<1 

23 

171 

19 

LUXEMBOURG 

C02 

CH4 

Industry 

Fugitive  fuel 

AH  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3 a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a.  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Savannah  burning 

Rice  cultivation 

Agriculture 

Landfills 

Total  emissions 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
U =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

12600 
12600 
1900 
6600 
2900 
300 
800 
100 

0 

600 
600 

0 

0 

100 
<1 

100 

13300 

0 
300 
0 

* 
b 

* 

18 
16 
2 

4 
4 
<1 
1 

24 

116 

Sources: 

Rapport  National  du  Luxembourg  en  vue  de  la  Ie  Conference  des  Parties  a  la  Convention-Cadres  des 
Nations-Unies  sur  les  Changement  Climatiques.  Ministère  de  l'Environment,  Mars,  1995. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR  (CORINAIR  1990  -  Luxembourg,  final  report) 

C02  estimates  are  taken  from  Luxembourg's  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise.  Figures  for  non-
C02  gases  are  CORN AIR  estimates. 

Footnotes: 
a. 

Luxembourg's  national  communication  provides  an  estimate  for  emissions  from  "nature".  These  have  not  been 
included  in total  C02  emissions. 

b.  Reconciliation  of  Eurostat  and  CORINAIR  transport  estimates. 

117 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in the Netherlands  -  1990  (Gg). 

N ,0 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

6 
6 
<1 
<1 
5 
<1 
IE 
IE 

16 

22 

22 

15 

4 
11 

59 

570 
570 
92 
86 
337 
31 
IE 
24 

800 
800 
6 
10 
716 
68 
IE 
IE 

231 
231 
19 
1 
195 
16 
IE 
IE 

229 

77 

145 

d 

575 

1029 

459 

THE  NETHERLANDS 

Industry 

All  energy 
1 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  & gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  & steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent use 
3a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  & Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4 a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a  Landfills 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Savannah  burning 

Agriculture 

CO, 

14900 
14900 
51400 
33400 
26900 
9500 
19200 
8600 

1900 
700 

800 
400 
0 

900 

900 

CH4 

177 
28 

149 
149 

0 

508 
402 
106 

382 
377 
5 

Total  emissions 

151800 

1067 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

35900 
4500 
28600b 

IE =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  = Not  Estimated 

*  = Eurostat  figures  used 
U = CORINAIR  figures  used 

118 

Sources: 

Netherlands'  national  communication  on  Climate  Change  Policies.  Prepared  for  the  Conference  of  the 
Parties  under  the  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  The  Netherlands,  August  1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a.  Netherlands'  national  communication  provides  estimates  for actual  emissions  from  feedstocks 

(14800  Gg) and  statistical  differences  (1000 Gg). For reasons  of  consistency  with  emission  inventories  from  other 
countries  these  have  not been  included.  Also,  the Netherlands  applied  a  correction  for  temperature  influences.  This 
correction  has been  ignored  for reasons  of comparison. 

b.  The  Netherlands  provides  in  its  national  communication  an  estimate  of  28600  Gg  C02  emissions  for  potential 
emissions  from  feedstocks.  To be consistent  with  emission  inventories  from  other  countries,  this  estimate  is used  for 
emissions  from  FNEC. 
The Netherlands  provides  in its national  communication  an estimate  for  emissions  from  polluted  inland  and coastal 
waters.  These  emissions  have  not been  included  here,  since  this  source  is not identified  in the draft  IPCC  guidelines 
for  national  greenhouse  gas inventories  and other  countries  did not provide  estimates. 

c. 

d.  N20  emissions  from  polluted  inland  and coastal  waters. 

119 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  Portugal  -  1990  (Gg). 

PORTUGAL 

CO, 

CK4 

N ,0 

N O. 

CO 

NMVOC 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
1 a2 
Industry 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
Savannah  burning 
4f 
6 
Waste 
6a  Landfills 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

210 
210 
60 
18 
108 
2 
1 
21 

1072 
1072 
68 
264 
614 
63 
54 
9 

436 
0 

11 
11 

117 
109 
11 
3 
81 
6 
5 
3 

13 
8 

15 
<1 

1 
5 
9 
67 
26 
2 
6 
32 
0 

U a 

38700 
38700 
19400 
6100 
9900 
1000 
900 
1300 

NE 

3400 
<100 
<100 
300 

3100 
<100 
0 

400  # 

400 

13 
11 
2 
2 
1 
3 
3 

5 
2 

2 
<1 

176 
105 
58 
13 

35 
33 
2 

Total  emissions 

42500 

227 

11 

214 

1083 

199 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

2100 
1800 
6600 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

Eurostat  figures  used 
CORINAIR  figures  used 

120 

Sources: 

Portuguese  report  in  accordance  with  Article  12  of  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on 
Climate  Change. Ministry  of the  Environment and Natural  Resources, Lisbon,  1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

- 

C02  estimates  are provided  by  Portugal  in reply to the  request of the  Council  of Ministers, unless  indicated 
otherwise. Figures  for  non-C02 gases  are  CORINAIR  estimates. 

Footnotes: 
a.  Nationally  reported  estimates  of  C02  emissions  from  transport  amount  to  8700  Gg,  while  Eurostat  estimates  amount 
to  10200  Gg  and  CORINAIR  estimates  amount  to  9800  Gg.  Most  likely,  the  nationally  reported  estimates  do  not 
include  all  transport  sources, and  therefore  CORINAIR  estimates  have  been  used. 

b.  Reconciliation  of  Eurostat  estimates  and  nationally  reported  estimates. 

121 

Estimates of  greenhouse  gases  in  Spain -  1990  (Gg). 

SPAIN 

CO, 

CH4 

N,0 

NO, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Industry 

All  energy 
1 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  & transformation 
la2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent use 
3 a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  & Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a  Landfills 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Savannah  burning 

Agriculture 

222900 
222900 
78400 
52300 
63300 
28900 
IE 
IE 

758 
74 
11 
6 
14 
44 
IE 
IE 

0 

684 

35300 

900 
600 

15100 
18600 
0 

0 

2500 
1800s 

700 

4 
3 
<1 
<1 
0 
0 
<1 
0 

875 
346 
426 
11 
70 
22 

494 
470 

23 

21 
21 
11 
5 
2 
3 
IE 
IE 

10 
0 
0 
10 
0 
0 
0 
0 

1158 
1158 
270 
144 
723 
21 
IE 
IE 

15 
2 
0 
8 
0 
0 
5 
0 

4032 
4032 
20 
401 
2721 
890 
IE 
IE 

248 
188 
60 
0 
0 
0 
<1 
0 

55 

397 

55 

0 

29 
28 

397 

272 
261 

12 

634 
568 
11 
9 
489 
59 
IE 
IE 

66 

70 
4 
<1 
3 
16 
0 
48 
302 
87 
38 
38 
138 
95 

74 
22 

10 
2 
<1 
7 

Total  emissions 

227300 

4531 

94 

1189 

4725 

1120 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

12200  *b 
4100  *c 
18800  * 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  = Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
#  =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

122 

Sources: 

Report  by  Spain  on  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change.  Provisional 
Version.  National  Climate  Committee.  Spain. 
Eurostat  (indicated  with  *) 
CORINAIR  (indicated  with  #) 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a. 

Spain  provided  an  estimate  of  1800  Gg  C02  emissions.  It  has  been  assumed  that  these  emissions  are  from  non-
organic/non-recyclable  material. 
Emissions  from  bunkers  have  not  been  provided  in  Spain's National  Report. 
Reconciliation  of  Eurostat  and  figures  provided  in  Spain's National  Report. 

b. 
c. 

123 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in Sweden -  1990  (Gg). 

co2 

55200 
55100 
7000 
13400 
23100 
11500 
IE 
IE 
IE 

<100 
<100 
0 
5000 
1600 
700 

2500 
200 
300 
100 
50 
50 
100 
500 
500 
IE 

CH4 

N,0 

NO. 

CO 

NMVOC 

33 
33 
1 
4 
17 
10 
IE 
IE 
IE 

4 
4 
1 
2 

1 
IE 
IE 
IE 

362 
362 
20 
39 
285 
19 
IE 
IE 
IE 

1606 
1606 
8 
6 
1503 
69 
IE 
IE 
IE 

0 

0 

11 
1 
1 
2 

196 
188 

375 
375 
4 
11 
201 
141 
IE 
IE 
IE 

18 
18 

67 
2 

59 
98 
40 
15 
7 
36 
0 

300 
300 

100 
100 

SWEDEN 

Industry 

1 
All  energy 
la  Fuel  combustion 
lal  Energy  &  transformation 
la2 
1 a3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb  Fugitive  fuel 
lbl  Oil  & gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
2 
Industrial  processes 
Iron  &  steel 
2a 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
2c 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f  Other 
3 
Solvent use 
3a  Paint  application 
3b  Degreasing  & Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a  Enteric  fermentation 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a  Landfills 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Savannah  burning 

Agriculture 

Total emissions 

61300 

329 

15 

373 

1612 

540 

Marine bunkers 
Aviation bunkers 
FNEC 

4200 
IE 
5700* 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  = Not  Estimated 

*  = Eurostat  figures  used 
U = CORINAIR  figures  used 

124 

Sources: 

Sweden's  National  Report  under  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change. 
Ministry  of  the  Environment  and Natural  Resources  -  September  1994. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

- 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are taken  from  the  National  Report,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

125 

Estimates  of  greenhouse  gases  in  United  Kingdom  -  1990  (Gg). 

UNITED  KINGDOM 

CO, 

CH4 

N ,0 

N O, 

CO 

NMVOC 

Fugitive  fuel 

All  energy 
Fuel  combustion 

1 
la 
l al  Energy  &  transformation 
Industry 
1 a2 
la3  Transport 
la4  Commercial/institutional 
la5  Residential 
la6  Agriculture/forestry 
la7  Other 
la8  Biomass 
lb 
l bl  Oil  &  gas 
lb2  Coal  mining 
Industrial  processes 
2 
2a 
Iron  &  steel 
2b  Non-ferrous  metals 
Inorganic  chemicals 
2c 
2d  Organic  chemicals 
2e  Non-metallic  minerals 
2f 
3 
3a 
3b  Degreasing  &  Dry  cleaning 
3 c  Chemical  prods  manuf/proc 
3d  Other 
4 
4a 
4b  Animal  wastes 
4c  Rice  cultivation 
4d  Agricultural  soils 
4e  Agricultural  waste  burning 
4f 
6  Waste 
6a 
6b  Wastewater 
6c  Other 

Other 
Solvent  use 
Paint  application 

Agriculture 
Enteric  fermentation 

Savannah  burning 

Landfills 

566000 
560400 
231300 
96700 
120600 
30200 
78900 
2700 

5700 
5700 

7400 

7400 

0 

b 

4800 
2800 

2200  c 

1316 
78 
5 
7 
11 
2 
46 
<1 
3 
4 
1238 
482 
756 
5 

1141 
1004 
125 

12 

2078 
2007 
71 

3 

0 

93 

13 
80 

11 

4 

7 

2710 
2628 
823 
180 
1498 
56 
68 
4 

82 
82 

21 

6317 
6284 
57 
65 
5884 
8 
269 
1 

1396 
1306 
13 
2 
115 
1 
37 

33 
33 

90 
90 

220 

455 

12 
0 

220 
0 

417 

38 
674 
237 
61 
72 
304 
0 

19 
19 

Total emissions 

577000 

4531 

108 

2740 

6682 

2540  f 

Marine  bunkers 
Aviation  bunkers 
FNEC 

7200 
1400 
36700 

d 

e 

* 

IE  =  Included  Elsewhere 
NE  =  Not  Estimated 

*  =  Eurostat  figures  used 
M  =  CORINAIR  figures  used 

126 

Sources: 

Climate  Change.  The  UK  report.  United  Kingdom's  Report  under  the  Framework  Convention  on 
Climate  Change.  January,  1994.  Figures  have  been  updated  for  consistency  reasons  with  the  latest  UK 
emission  data  in  the  17th  Digest  of  Environmental  Protection  and  Water  Statistics. 
Eurostat 
CORINAIR 

Estimates  for  all  greenhouse  gases  are  taken  from  the  UK's  National  Report,  as  revised  by  the  UK 
Department  of  the  Environment  for  consistency  with  the  updated  emission  inventory  in  the  17th  Digest  of 
Environmental  Protection  and  Water  Statistics,  unless  indicated  otherwise. 

Footnotes: 
a.  Not  included  in  emission  totals. 
b. 

Based  on  UK's  nationally  reported  estimates  of  2500  Gg  for  landfills,  and  6051  Gg  for  incineration.  In  the  UK's 
report,  the  latter  has  been  presented  in  category  2F. 
C02  emissions  from  incineration. 

c. 
d.  UK  estimate  of  international  marine  bunker  emissions. 
e.  UK  estimate  of  international  aviation^bunker  emissions. 
f. 

NMVOC  emissions  from  land  use  change  (80  Gg)  have  not  been  included  as  part  of  the  total. 

127 

ANNEX  2 

SCENARIOS 

128 

Conventional  Wisdom  Scenario: energy  indicators 

SCENARIO 

CONVENTIONAL  WISDOM 

General 
Description: 

Macro- 
economics: 

Taxation: 

Environment: 

The  "business  as  usual' scenario  denoting  a conventional  wisdom  view  of  the  most 
likely  evolution  of events. Economic  growth  gradually  weakens  in the  long  term. 
Although  some progress  is  made, many  of the world's  structural  social  and 
economic  problems  remain. Energy  policy  remains  fragmented,  the result  of 
unresolved  conflicting  objectives  for  competitivity,  environment  and  security  of 
supply  as well  as differing  national  aims. 

EU  GDP  annual  growth  rates  of  2.9% from  1995  to  2000; 2.4% to  2005; 2.2% to 
2010;  1.9%  to  2015; and  1.8%  to  2020.  Discount  rate  8% real. 

No  reform:  Already  high  tax rates  leave  little room  for  further  increases  to  contain 
public  deficits;  no  inclusion  of  external  costs. 

Although  high  on  EU  agenda, environmental  approach  limited  by  conflicting 
economic  objectives.  Progress  is made  in  a number  of  areas, particularly  S02, 
NOx, etc.  Measures  to meet  global  warming  continue  only  on  a mild  precautionary 
basis. 

Energy  Prices: 
Crude  ($1993) 

Gas 

Coal 

Increasing  smoothly. 
Rising  in real  terms  as world  demand  increasingly  met by  Middle  East  producers. 
$17.6/bbl  in  1995, $21/bbl  in  2000, $29/bbl  in  2010  and  $31/bbl  in  2020. 
Deregulation  and  growing  network  bring  lower prices  relative  to  oil  after  2000, 
reinforced  by  increasing  as to  gas  price  competition. 
International  process  increasing  slightly,  reflecting  expected  long-run  marginal 
production  costs. Delivered  prices  flat  as cheap  imports  displace  expensive 
domestic  supplies. 

Technology: 

Some  penetration  of new, more  efficient  demand  and supply  technologies,  partly 
driven  by  public  standards  and  partly  by  industrialists  aiming  at  increased 
industrial  competitiveness. 

Energy 
Demand 
Issues: 
Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Continuation  of  current  actions  with  some  concern  on increasing  efficiency.  Gross 
consumption  expected  to  increase  modestly  and ever more  slowly. 

Very  little  growth  expected  as oil  is  increasingly  limited  to  transportation. 
However,  it remains  the predominant  fuel  overall. 
Fastest  growing  of  all primary  fuels  with  increasing  share  in  all  end-use  sectors, 
particularly  power  generation.  Gains  could  slow  post-2000  as coal  becomes  more 
attractive  in power  sector. 
Share  declines  to  2000  as  a result  of  competition  from  gas  in  electricity 
generation.  Increasingly  competitive  prices  could  mean  later recovery  of  market 
share  in  the  power  sector. 
Electricity  likely  to gain  share  in  residential,  commercial  and  industrial  sectors  in 
the  medium  term  although  market  saturation  and  efficiency  gains  could  slow  the 
growth  towards  2020. 

129 

Energy Supply 
Issues: 
Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Renewables 

» 

Import dependency  accelerates, potentially  increasing  from  50% at present to two 
thirds  or more by 2020. 
Domestic  production  not  expected  to  decline  significantly  until  beyond  2010. 
Import  dependency  remains  relatively  close to  today's  levels. 
Although  domestic production  likely  to  be maintained,  strong  demands  rise  means 
rapid  increase  in  imports. Liberalisation  and  infrastructure  developments  essential 
in  expanding  penetration  of  gas  in  Europe. 
Deregulation  and  reduced  subsidies  will  result  in  substantial  decline  in  domestic 
EU  hard  coal  production  and escalating  imports. 
No  public  policy  on nuclear  or security  of  supply  of fossil  fuel  imports.  No  limits 
for  use  of each  primary  source. 
Supply  could  increase  strongly  but  from  very  low  base.  Overall  contribution  of 
renewables  likely  to remain  small. 

130 

Battlefield  Scenario: energy  indicators 

SCENARIO 

BATTLEFIELD 

General 
Description: 

Macro- 
Economics: 

Taxation: 

Environment: 

Energy  Prices: 

Crude  ($1993) 

Gas 

Coal 

Technology: 

Contradictions and instabilities in the  global 
system  make  economic  integration very  difficult. 
Globalisation is seen  as too ambitious.  The  geo 
political  system fragments  into blocs, with  tensions 
and friction  between  and also within  the  blocs.  This 
leads to  a  "Europe à la carte". Energy  policies  are 
aimed  at reducing  import  dependency;  supply  side 
measures  such  as protectionism  of  domestic  energy 
production  industries, likely  to be more  successful  than 
demand  side measures. 

EU  GDP  annual  growth  rates  of  3.1%  from  1995  to  2000;  1.1% 
to  2005; -1.8% to  2010;  1.4%  to  2015; and  1.3%  to 
2020.  Discount  rate  7% real. 

No  tax  reform:  harmonisation  of VAT  and  excises  as  it 
stands  today, without  equality  of treatments  across  fuels; 
some  inclusion  of  external  costs  (transport  sector);  taxation 
levels  continue  to be  set  aiming  at  Government  revenue  levels. 

Precautionary  principles  on  C02  to  2005, but  C02  proven  as  a 
contributor to  global  warming  thereafter.  Nonetheless, 
environmentalism  an excuse  for  protectionism  and  effectiveness 
frequently  compromised. 

Increasing  dependency  on fewer  major  suppliers  leads  to  an  oil 
price  shock. 
Rising  from  $16/bbl  in  1995 to  $24/bbl  by  2004.  Price  shock  to 
$40/bbl  in  2005, falling  to  $18/bbl  in  2009  then  rising  again  to 
$28/bbl  in  2020. 
Remain  tied  to  oil,  so reflecting  the  price  shock  but  lagging  in 
response. 
International  prices  flat  until  the price  shock  of  2005, although 
falling  back  thereafter  to  pre-shock  levels.  European  prices  track 
international  prices  but  inflated  by  the  cost  of  maintaining 
domestic  production. 

As  Conventional  Wisdom  - Some  penetration  of  new,  more 
efficient  demand  and supply  technologies,  partly  driven  by  public 
standards  and  partly  by  industrialists  aiming  at  increased 
industrial  competitiveness. 

131 

Energy  Demand 
Issues: 

Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Energy  Supply 
Issues: 

Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Renewables 

In  spite  of  attempts  to  introduce  alternative  fuels,  tension  and 
conflict  inhibit efficiency  gains. Energy  demand  likely  to  rise, 
then  to  fall  back in response to the  energy  price  shock  and 
subsequent  economic recession before  rising  again. 
Impact  of  price  shock  expected  to  be considerably,  particularly  in 
substitutable  sectors. Transport  growth  likely  to  be  checked  but 
could  rise  again  later, albeit  increasingly  constrained  by  social 
and  environmental  concerns. 
Underlying  strong  demand  growth  but  interruption  by  the  price 
shock  expected. 
Coal  increasingly  perceived  as  a more  stable  and  secure  energy 
source  allowing  it to fight  back  against  gas  post-2000, 
particularly  in power  generation. 
Some  penetration  of new, more  efficient  demand  supply 
technologies  partly  driven  by public  standards  and  partly  by 
industrialists  aiming  at  increased  industrial  competitiveness. 

Policy  dominated  by  unresolved  conflicts  of  competitiveness, 
environment  and  geopolitical  considerations. 
Policy  aimed  at maintaining  European  production  as high  as 
possible  in  response  to  security  of  supply  concerns, aided  by 
increasing  real  prices. 
As  with  oil, policies  such  as benign  upstream  taxation  aim  to 
enhance  and  extend  domestic  production  to minimise  imports. 
Production  declines  steadily  but  state  aids  moderate  rate  of 
decline. 
Efforts  to  maintain  current  level  of nuclear  capacity  in  Europe; 
Setting  of  limits  for  the use  of each  primary  source  (oil, coal, 
gas)  for  security  reasons. 
Public  attempts  to  develop  renewables  meet  with  only  limited 
success. 

132 

Forum  Scenario: energy  indicators 

SCENARIO 

FORUM 

General 
Description: 

Macro- 
Economics: 

Taxation: 

Environment: 

Energy  Prices: 
Crude  ($1993) 

Gas 

Coal 

The process of global  economic  integration produces new 
imperatives for  collective public  action  National, European and 
international institutions  are gradually restructured so  as to  be 
able to deal more effectively  with  broader,  more complex shared 
problems  and interests. 
Energy  policies  most  significantly  affected  by concern  for  the 
environment.  A global  unity  of  purpose  allows  positive  action 
across the energy  spectrum. 

EU  GDP annual growth  rates  of  2.3% from  1995  to  2000; 2.5% 
to  2005; -2.5% to  2010; 2.6% to  2015; and  2.4% to 
2020. Discount rate 5% real. 

General  taxation reform: harmonisation  of VAT and excises  and 
equality  of treatment  across  fuels  on  an  energy  basis;  external 
costs  included  - on  a "precautionary"  approach  to  2005  and 
under  a C02  driven  world  thereafter,  leads  to general  fuel  tax 
increases  in real terms. 

T°e  ecologically  driven  scenario. The proven  case  against  C02 
from  2005 reinforces  strong  environmental  concerns  throughout 
society  and  results  in major  policy  shifts. 

Stable  throughout 
Flat  at $16/bbl  to  2020  representing  an  average which  captures  a 
variation  within  the range  of  $10  to  $20/bbl.  Weak  demand 
prevents  producers  from  controlling  the market.  Consumers 
governments  extract  much  of the  economic  rent. 
Rising  relative  to  oil  as  environmental  pressures  put  premium  on 
clean  fuels. 
International  prices  constant  in  real  terms  in  face  of 
environmental  pressures  and thus  weak  demand.  Average  EU 
prices  fall  substantially  with  phase-down  of expensive  domestic 
production. 

Technology: 

Strong  penetration  of  new, more  efficient  demand  and  supply 
technologies  mainly  driven  by  public  standards  on  a world-wide 
scale - high  level  of technology  transfer. 

133 

Energy  Demand 
Issues: 
Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Energy  Supply 
Issues: 
Oil 

Gas 

Coal 
Electricity 

Renewables 

Radical  policy  changes  and  major  technology  developments 
aimed  at limiting  energy  demand  growth.  Aiming  at rapid 
decline,  although  difficult  in  transport.  Goal  is  for  transport  fuel 
demand  to flatten  to  early  2000s  then  fall  thereafter  with  some 
growth  in  more  efficient  diesel,  decline  in  gasoline  and 
increasing  penetration  of non-oil  clean  technologies  towards 
2020. 
Environmental  advantages  likely  to  ensure  significant  increases 
in  share  although  lower  overall  energy  requirements  could  limit 
volume  increases. 
Limited  by  environmental  disadvantages  but  RTD  develops  to 
meet  environmental  challenge. 
Strongly  influenced  by  public  conservation  policies  and  utilities 
demand-side  management. 

Fundamental  policy  changes  and  major  RTD  push  to  limit 
emissions, notably  C02. 
While  enhanced  recovery  technologies  ensure  more  than 
adequate  supplies  to meet  lower  demand,  low  prices  hinder 
production  from  higher  cost  reserves. 
Domestic  production  strong,  aided  by  technology.  Well-head 
conversion  to hydrogen  for  new  energy  technologies  appears 
towards  2020. 
Domestic  production  rapidly  phased  out. 
No  nuclear  phase-out  with  re-launch  in  some  countries  (France, 
Japan,  NICs);  Opportunities  for  new  technologies  enhanced. 
Strong  growth  in  share of renewables,  accelerating  towards  the 
period  end  as new  technologies  and radical  changes  in 
agricultural  policy  are pushed  forward. 

134 

Hypermarket  Scenario: energy  indicators 

SCENARIO 

HYPERMARKET 

General 
Description: 

I 

Macro- 
Economics: 

Taxation: 

Environment: 

Energy  Prices: 
Crude  ($1993) 

Gas 

Coal 

Global economic  integration is self-reinforcing  and continues. 
The force  driving this scenario is continued  application of  the 
market  mechanism  which  is seen  as the  best  way  to  produce 
wealth  and handle complexity  in uncertainty. Liberalisation and 
privatisation  deliver results and produce  new  market entrants 
who  demand  more of  the same.  Strong  belief  in  free  market 
principles  result  in  energy  policy  driven  by  desire  to  minimise 
government  control  and maximise  efficient  operation  of  free 
markets,  nonetheless  achieving  desired  standards. 

| 

' 

"~ 

EU  GDP  annual  growth  rates  of  3.2% from  1995  to  2000; 2.8% 
to  2005; 2.3% to  2010; 2.1%  to  2015; and  1.9%  to 
2020.  Discount  rate  10% real. 

Some  tax reform: harmonisation  of VAT and  excises  taxes 
towards  current  limits, without  equality  of  treatment  across  fuels; 
no  inclusion  of  external  costs. 

Precautionary  principles  on C02  to  2005, after  which  the  case 
against  C02 is  proven.  Governments  cannot  be  indifferent  to 
environmental  problems  but  look  first  and foremost  to  the  market 
for  solutions  and only  secondly  to  public  policy.  Public  concern 
reinforces  the need  for  the creation  of markets  for  environmental 
protection. 

Increasing  smoothly 
Rising  in  real  terms  as world  demand  increasingly  met  by 
Middle  East  producers. $17.6/bbl  in  1995, $21/bbl  in  2000, 
$29/bbl  in  2010  and $31/bbl  in 2020. 
Deregulation  and  growing  network  bring  lower prices  relative  to 
oil, reinforced  by  increasing  gas-to  gas  price  competition. 
International  prices  slightly  increasing  reflecting  expected  long-
run  marginal  production  costs. Domestic  prices  flat  as  cheap 
imports  displace  expensive domestic  supplies. 

Technology: 

Penetration  of  new, more efficient  demand  and  supply 
technologies  substantially  dependent  on  market forces  and 
international  competition;  little Government  action. 

135 

Energy  Demand 
Issues: 

Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Energy  Supply 
Issues: 

Oil 

Gas 

Coal 

Electricity 

Renewables 

High  economic  grow th  and  hands-off  public policy  mean 
efficiency  gains  made only  for  competitive  reasons; strong 
energy  demand  growth  likely. 
Oil  up  against  strong  competition  from  cheap  deregulated  gas 
and  imported  coal,  although  transport  sector  likely  to  limited 
only  by  saturation  effects. 
The  dash  for  gas  becomes  a stampede,  although  there  is 
increasing  competition  from  low  cost  coal  imports  post-2000 
Likely  to  decline  steeply  in  the  near  term  but  competitive  prices 
present  potential  for  strong  recovery  in  the  power  sector 
thereafter. 
Little  public  influence  in  terms  of  conservation  policies. 

No  special  concerns  on  security  of  supply. Domestic  eneigy 
production  only  develops  where viable  on  internationally 
competitive  basis  with  no  special  government  support 
Imports  rise  but  downstream  investments  by  producer  countries 
allay  security  of  supply  worries.  Domestic  production  develops 
in response  to  rising  prices. 
Import  dependency  increases  but  mutual  commercial  interests  of 
producers  and  consumers  reduce  security  risks. 
Withdrawal  of  subsidies  and  deregulation  lead  to  phase-out  of 
domestic  supply. 
No  public  policy  on nuclear.  No  limits  for  use  of each  primary 
source. 
With  little  public  RTD  investment  or  incentives,  renewable 
growth  limited  to  commercially  viable  opportunities  only. 

136 

ISSN 0254-1475 

COM(96) 217 final 

DOCUMENTS 

EN 

14 

Catalogue number  : CB-CO-96-228-EN-C 

ISBN 92-78-04176-9 

Office for Official Publications of the European Communities 

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