REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION under Council Decision 93/389/EEC - Second evaluation of national programmes under the monitoring mechanism of community CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions - Progress Towards the Community CO2 Stabilisation Target
Date: 1996-03-14
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: EU programme, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, greenhouse gas

COMMISSION  OF THE  EUROPEAN  COMMUNITIES 

Brussels,  14.03.1996 
COM(96)  91  final 

REPORT FROM THE  COMMISSION 

under Council  Decision  93/389/EEC 

SECOND  EVALUATION  OF NATIONAL PROGRAMMES  UNDER  THE  MONITORING 
MECHANISM  OF COMMUNITY  C02  AND  OTHER  GREENHOUSE  GAS  EMISSIONS 

Progress  Towards  the  Community  C02  Stabilisation  Target 

CONTENTS 

1 

INTRODUCTION 

1.1 

THE  MONITORING  MECHA  NISM  A ND  THE  SECOND  EVA  L VA  TION  REPOR  T 

1.2 

THE  COMMUNITY 

TARGET 

2 

GREENHOUSE  GAS  INVENTORIES 

2.1 

2.2 

COMMUNITY 

INVENTORIES 

REMOVAL 

BY  SINKS 

2.3 

CONCLUSIONS 

3 

EVALUA  TION  OF  PROGRESS  TOWARDS  THE  TARGET 

3.1 

3.2 

CONTENT  OF  NATIONAL 

PROGRAMMES 

CO2  LIMITATION 

STRATEGIES 

IN  THE  COMMUNITY 

3.3 

TRAJECTORIES  AND  EFFECTS  OF  MEASURES 

4 

CONCLUSIONS 

ANNEX  A 

TABLES  SHOWING  C02  INVENTORIES, 

TRAJECTORIES 

AND 

ANNEX  B 

EFFECTS  OF  MEASURES 
SUMMARIES 
COUNTRY 

FOR  THE  15  MEMBER 

STATES 

\ 

1 

2 

4 

4 

8 

8 

9 

9 

10 

12 

20 

INTRODUCTION 

1.1 

THE  MONITORING  MECHANISM 

AND  THE  SECOND  EVALUA  TION  REPORT 

In  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  decision  (1),  the  Commission  is  requested  to  report  on  an  annual 
basis  to  the  Council  and  the  European  Parliament,  on  whether  progress  in  the  Community  as  a 
whole  is  sufficient  to  ensure  stabilisation  of  C 02  emissions  by  2000  at  1990  levels.  This 
objective  was  agreed  at  the  joint  Energy/Environment  Council  of  29  October,  1990.  The  first 
evaluation  was  carried  out  on  the  basis  of  national  programmes  received  by  the  Commission  in 
in  the  level  of  detail  and  treatment  of  issues  in  these 
1993.  Due  to  major  differences 
programmes,  the  initial  evaluation  was  limited  in  scope. 

This  report  is the  result  of the  second  evaluation  process  which  has  been  undertaken  on  the  basis 
of  National  Communications/Programmes  (2)  which  have  been  submitted  under  the  Framework 
Convention  on  Climate  Change  and  under  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  (apart  from  the  Belgian 
programme  which  was  submitted  directly  to  the  Monitoring  Mechanism),  and  updates  which 
have  been  officially  communicated  to the  Commission  before  1 July,  1995.  The  report  is  a  first 
attempt  to  use  the  methodology  for  the  evaluation  of  progress  and  content  of  national 
the  Monitoring  Mechanism 
programmes,  which  has  been  developed  and  adopted  by 
Committee  (3).  This  second  evaluation  report  is  therefore  based  on  considerably  improved 
information  compared  to  the  first  evaluation  report  which  was  based  on  the  existing  national 
programmes  which,  at  that  time,  were  not  complete,  comparable  or  transparent  due  to  the  lack 
of  detailed  specification  of  common  contents  and  structure  (4). 

Following  the Council  Decision, six Committee  Meetings  under the Monitoring  Mechanism  have 
taken  place.  The  summary  records  of  these  meetings  include  some  updated 
information 
communicated  by  the  Member  States  and  this  information  has  also  been  taken  into  account  in 
the  evaluation. 

The  remainder  of  this  project  is  set  out  in  the  following  subsections.  Section  2  reports  on  the 
C 02  and  other  greenhouse  gas  emissions  inventories  and  removals  by  sinks  for  EU-15.  The 
1990  inventory  is  presented  and  historical  trends,  especially  in  energy  related  C 02  emissions, 
are  discussed.  The  greenhouse  gas  emissions  inventory  is  only  provisional  at  this  point  since 
the  Member  States  have  not  yet  provided  their final  emissions  inventories.  Section  3  provides 
It  reviews  the  content  of  the 
an  evaluation  of  progress  towards  the  C 02  stabilisation  target. 
It  focuses  on  the  impact  on 
national  programmes,  the  trajectories  and  the  effect  of  measures. 
C 02 
the  National 
Communications/Programmes,  rather  than  assessing  the  real  effectiveness  of  these  measures  in 
reaching  the  Member  States  targets  and  objectives.  Further  details  of  the  individual  Member 
It  compares  the  Member  States  own 
States'  national  programmes  are  given  in  the  Annex. 
trajectories  for  the  year  2000  with  alternative  trajectories  prepared  by  the  Commission  services. 
Section  4  draws  conclusions  on  the  content  and  structure  of  the  national  programmes,  the 
uncertainty  in  projections  and  the  likely  range  of  C 02  emissions  for  the  year  2000. 

national  measures, 

described 

emission 

levels 

as 

of 

in 

ID 

(2) 

Council Decision  93/389/EEC 

In order  to  ensure  consistency  between  the  reporting  requirements  under  the  Framework  convention  on  Climate  Change 
(FCCC) and  the  EC Monitoring  Mechanism, Member  States may  submit  their  National communications  under  the  FCCC also  to 
the  Monitoring  Mechanism  as their  National  Programmes. 
(3) 

Fifth  meeting  of  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  committee,  18 May, 1995. 

C0M(94) 67 final,  page  2. 

1 

C^ 

1.2 

THE  COMMUNITY 

TARGET 

In  1993,  the  Council  Decision  for  a  monitoring  mechanism  of  Community  C 02  and  other 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  was  adopted  'in  the  framework  of  a Community  strategy  to  limit  C 02 
emissions  and  to  improve  energy  efficiency',  to  ensure  that  the  Community  is  on  course  to  fulfil 
both  the  stabilisation  of  C 02  emissions  in  the  Community  as  a whole  by  the  year  2000  at  1990 
levels, and the commitments  under the UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  (5).  Most, 
but  not  all,  Member  States  have  set  national  or  EU  C 02  limitation  targets  or  objectives  which 
give  an  indication  of  the  contribution  they  expect  to  be  making  to  meeting  the  Community 
target. 

Greece,  Ireland  and  Portugal  have  not  adopted  an  official  C 02  target.  Instead  they  have  set  out 
objectives  in their  National  Communications/Programmes  to  limit the increase  in  C 02  emissions 
to  15%  (+/-  3%),  20%  and  40%  respectively.  Finland  has  no  base year  for  its  target  to  'stop  the 
growth  in  energy  related  C 02  emissions  by  the  end  of  the  1990s', thus  making  the  target  unclear 
in numerical  terms.  Germany  only  has  a target for  2005, a 25% reduction  in emissions  compared 
to  1990  levels. 

emissions  of 

the  per-capita 

France  and  Spain  have  targets  that  allow  some  increase  over  current  levels  of  emissions  but 
which  restrict  the  extent  of  that  increase.  France's  position  concerning  the  general  commitment 
carbon  under  2  tonnes  (which  is 
of  maintaining 
equivalent  to  a  13% increase  in  emissions  by  2000  over  1990  levels)  is  maintained  (6) but 
it 
should  not  be  considered  as  a  specific  target  for  the  year  2000;  instead,  the  preference  is  for 
commitments  on  policies  and  measures  rather  than  to  any  quantified  emissions  limitations. 
According  to  new  calculations  which 
of 
increase  has  been  revised  downwards  to  +  7%. 

the  operational  optimization 
plants  generating  electricity,  this  first  hypothesis  of  emissions 

take  into  consideration 

the  nuclear  power 

fossil 

Denmark  has  a  national  target  of  a  20%  reduction  of 
its  CO?  emissions  from  energy  and 
transport  by  the  year  2005  compared  to  1988.  This  target  is  formulated  in  terms  of  emissions 
corrected  for  net  electricity  trade, in  both  the  base  and  the  target year.  Electricity  trade  fluctuates 
with  water  availability  in  the  other  Scandinavia  countries,  with  exports  in  some  years  and 
imports  in  others. 
In  1990,  with  relatively  large  electricity  imports  emissions  were  at  10  %  below  the  corrected 
emissions.  Apart  from  its  national  C 02  reduction  target,  Denmark  has  committed  itself  to 
achieve  a  5%  reductions  in  2000  compared  to  1990  as  a  contribution  to  the  EU  stabilization 
target.  This  commitment  is  also  based  on  the  corrected  1990  C 02  emissions  figures. 
The  official  Dutch  target  is  a  reduction  of  3%  in  C 02  emissions  in  2000  compared  with  the 
1989/1990  levels.  The  Netherlands  consider 
that  teperature  corrections  is  relevant  for  the 
development  of  adequate  climate  and  energy  policies.  To  enable  policy  development  and 
,  the  Netherlands  takes  temperature  variations  into  account  by  adjusting  C 02 
evaluation 
emissions.  Therefore 
its  1990  base  years  has  also  been  corrected  for  the  weather  conditions 
prevalent 
in  1990.  The  Netherlands  strategy  to  reduce  its  C 02  emissions  by  3%  therefore  is 
built  around  this  1990  adjusted  figure. 

Taking  account  of these  targets  and  objectives,  there  is  only  a negligible  gap  between  emissions 
targeted  by  the  aggregate  of  Member  State  targets  and  the  Community  target.  However,  the 
assumptions  made  for  the  three  countries  that  have neither  a numerical  target  or  an objective  for 
the  year  2000  (Finland,  France  and  Germany)  are  critical  for  this  outcome; 
their  emissions 
represented  4 3% of  total  Community  emissions  in  1990. 

(5) 

Council Decision  93/389/EEC. 

(6)  COM (94) 67 final  Of 10.3.1994  p. 20 

2/3 

GREENHOUSE  GAS 

INVENTORIES 

2.1 

COMMUNLTY 

INVENTORIES 

Member  State 

Austria 

Belgium 

Denmark 

Finland 

France 

co2 

59200 

114500 

52100 

53900 

366500 

Germany 

1013000 

Greece 

Ireland 

Italy 

86100 

30720 

CIL 

N ,0 

NO, 

CO 

i  NMVOC 

C 02 
Removals 

603 

359 

406 

252 

2896 

6218 

936 

796 

4 

22 

11 

22 

176 

223 

24 

42 

222 

338 

270 

295 

1692 

1219 

770 

487 

445 

361 

165 

219 

1722 

10947 

2424 

2944 

10768 

2978 

543 

114 

1143 

429 

325 

197 

NE 

NE 

2600 

<31000 

32200 

20000 

NE 

NE 

436300 

3889 

116 

2034 

9258 

240] 

36700 

Luxembourg 

13300 

24 

Netherlands 

151800 

1067 

Portugal 

Spain 

Sweden 

42500 

227 

227300 

2151 

61300 

329 

1 

59 

11 

94 

15 

23 

171 

575 

1029 

214 

1083 

19 

459 

199 

NE 

100 

NE 

1189 

4725 

1120 

23200 

373 

1612 

540 

34300 

UK 

|  577000 I 

4531 

108 j 

2740 j 

6682 • 

2540 

6100 

EU-15 

\  3285620 I 

24671 

928 ! 

13546 ! 

52006  ! 

14397 

Table  1 

Emission  Inventories for  EU-15 for  C02  and Other Greenhouse  Gases 1990  (Gg) 

-  P r o v i s i o n al  E s t i m a t e s:  Estimates  of  Community  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are  based  on  estimates  of  emissions 
submitted  by  the  Member  States.  National  estimates  will  be  checked/confirmed  with  each  country  prior  to  finalising 
the  totals  for  the  EU. 
- The  C02 removals  are  from  Land  use  and  Forestry. 
- Emissions  from  Final Non  Energy  Consumption  (including  feedstocks)  have not been  included 
in  total  emissions.  Therefore,  total  emissions  are  underestimated  in  comparison  with  the  IPCC 
methodology.  Emissions  from  Final  Non  Energy  Consumption  (FNEC)  are  based  on  the  total 
carbon  contained  in  the  products.  The  addition  of  total  emissions  and  emissions  from  FNEC 
would  therefore  produce  an  overestimation  compared  to  the  IPCC  methodology. 
- The  UK  and  the  Spanish  emissions  are based  on  recently  updated  national  estimates  adjusted 
to  be  in  line  with  the  IPCC  guidelines. 
-  The  Spanish  C02  emissions  of  18700  G  from  agriculture  and  2200  Gg  from  Waste  are  not 
included  in  the  total  national  emissions  since  Spain  has  indicated  that  it  considers  all  such 
emissions  are  of  organic  origin. 

-  DK:  Denmark  has  corrected  its  fuel  combustion  emissions  for  electricity  imports/exports  in 
1990. This  correction  (6300Gg  of  C02)  has been  excluded  from  the  estimates  presented  in  this 
report  for  reasons  of consistency, no other  Member  States having  made  such  a correction. 
-  FR:  C02  emissions  of  8000  Gg  from  Waste  are  not  included  in  the  total  national  emissions 
since  France  has  indicated  that  it considers  all waste  emissions  are  of organic  origin. 
- IRL:  In  its national  communication  Ireland  provided  an estimate  of NMVOC  emissions  from 
land  use  change  and  forestry  of  17  Gg  and  was  the  only  Member  State  to  provide  such  an 
estimate.  At  the  request  of  Ireland,  this  estimate  has  been  included  in  the  estimates  presented 
in  this  report. 
-  NL:  In  its  National  Communication  the  Netherlands  provided  estimates  of  C02  for  actual 
emissions from  feedstock  (14800  Gg) and statistical differences  (1000 Gg) which have not been 
included  in  the  results  presented  in  this  report  for  reasons  of  consistency.  Also  it  applied  a 
correction  for temperature  influences  which  was not  applied  by other Member  States  and  hence 
has  also  been  ignored  for  reasons  of  consistency. 

Source:  European  Environmental  Agency  (EEA), June  1995. 

The  most  detailed  and  accurate  emissions  data  are  available  for  1990  because  it  is  the 
base  year  for  the  setting  of  policy  targets  within  the  EU  and  internationally.  The  Table 
below  shows the  emission  inventories  for  the EU-15  for  C 02  and  other  greenhouse  gases 
as  also  included  in  the  EU  Communication  under  the  UN  Framework  Convention  on 
Climate  Change  (7). 

The  compilation  of  Community  greenhouse  gas inventories  for  1990 provides  a  baseline 
against  which  the  evolution  of  emissions  can  be  measured.  The  Community  inventory 
is  based  on  the  Member  States'  inventories  which  are  submitted  to  the  Commission 
under  the  Decision  for  a monitoring  mechanism,  using  the  same  format  as that  required 
for  reporting  under  the UN  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  (FCCC).  In  the 
fifth  Monitoring  Committee  meeting  the  Member  States  agreed  to  a  systematic  process 
of  reviewing  the  data  submitted  to the  Commission,  described  in the  document  'Proposal 
for  the  Methodology  for  the  Evaluation  of  Progress  and  for  the  Contents  of  National 
Programmes'  (8).  The  change  in  emissions over  time  can then  be measured  by  comparing 
the  equivalent  inventories  for  subsequent years  with  the  1990 baseline  inventory.  As  the 
procedures  for  reviewing  the  data  submitted  by  Member  States  have  not  yet  been 
formalised,  the  inventories  shown  in  the  Table  I  are  only  provisional. 

This  inventory  data  for  1990  is  the  most  up  to  date  and  consistent  Community  data; 
it 
may  differ  from  the  1990  data  reported  in  some  National  Communications/Programmes, 
either  because  it  is  more  recently  estimated  or  because  it  has  been  produced  using  a 
different  methodology. 
it  provides  a  consistent  basis  for  Member  State 
inventories,  it  will  be  used  as  the  baseline  throughout  the  report.  Complete  inventories 
for  other  greenhouse  gases  were  submitted  for  the  year  1990  only. 

Since 

The EC greenhouse inventories are subject to review in the light of new scientific knowledge.  The CO, inventory  does not 

include sinks. 

(8) 

Fifth meeting of the Monitoring Mechanism Committee, 18 May, 1995. 

According to the Monitoring Mechanism methodology, the Member States should submit 
in  July  every  year,  provisional  C02  inventories  for  the  previous  year  and  final 
inventories  for  the year previous  to that.  Community  inventories  are then  compiled  on 
the  basis  of  the  received  data.  The  Member  States  are  also  encouraged  to  submit 
inventories  of  other  greenhouse  gases  with  their  C02  inventories. 

In  all  Member  States,  C02  is  the  most  important  contributor  to  total  anthropogenic 
greenhouse gas emissions.  Data on the three main gases, C02, CH4 and N20,  aggregated 
to  show  the  climate  change  effect  using  IPCC  direct  global  warming  potentials 
(GWPs)  (9),  indicate  that  the  contribution  of  C02  in  the  Community  is  approximately 
79%.  Since the stabilisation  target relates only to C02, the evaluation  of progress in this 
report  concentrates  on  that  gas  and  not  on  other  greenhouse  gases. 

Total  anthropogenic  C02  emissions  in  the  Community  amounted  to  an  estimated 
3,329,750  Gg  in  1990  which  is  approximately  13%  of  total  global  anthropogenic 
emissions  (10).  Since there  is no  agreed  C02  inventory  for  the EU-15  for  1993, it is not 
possible  to  make  a comparison  of  review year  data  (1993)  with  base year  data  (1990), 
as is  required  by  the  Monitoring  Mechanism  methodology. 

2.1.1  Historical  Trends in Energy Related  C02 Emissions 

Within the Community  C02  emissions arise largely  (95%) from  the combustion of  fossil 
fuels  used  as  energy  sources  for  power  generation,  industry,  transport  and  households. 
Since  the  contribution  of  energy  related  C02  emissions  to  total  C02  emissions  is  so 
significant,  it  is  possible  to  get  an  indication  of  the  historical  C02  emission  trends  by 
studying  energy  related  emissions  only. 

Between  1990  and  19.93  (the  review  year  in  the  second  evaluation  process)  energy 
related  C02  emissions  in  the  Community  as a whole fell  by  2.2%  (11) and  C02  intensity 
both  on  a per  capita  and per  GDP basis has fallen  (12).  It is important  to note, however, 
that,  as  opposed  to  Member  State  emission  inventories  and  the  Community  C02 
inventory,  the  C02  estimates  on  which  these  figures  are  based  have  been  calculated 
using  harmonised  emission  factors  (13).  The  absolute  emission  figures  by  country  will 
therefore  not  correspond  to  the EU  inventory  figures.  However,  the  2.2% reduction  is 
indicative  of  the  evolution  of  C02  emissions  over  the  review  period. 

Energy  related  C02  emissions have fallen  only in three out of the fifteen  Member  States 
(Austria,  Germany,  and  the  UK).  Developments  in  Germany  are  of  particular 
importance  to  changes  in  emission  levels  in  the  Community,  contributing  30%  of 

(9) 

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:  the 1994 Report of the Scientific Assessment Working croup of IPCC.  Global Warming 
Potentials (CWPs) of  24.5 and 320 tonnes of CO, equivalent for CH4 and N20 respectively, based on IPCC Direct GWPs on a 100 
year time horizon. 
(10) 

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:  the  1994 Report of  the Scientific Assessment Working Group of IPCC. 

in) 

(12) 

(13) 

Eurostat, May 1995.  Energy related emission data, based on harmonised emission factors. 

GDP and population figures from Eurostat, June 1995. 

The use of emission factors may vary between countries simply because the chemical composition of the fuels actually are 

different  in different countries.  However, differences may also arise because the underlying assumptions about the 
conversion of carbon to co2 differ, i.e. assumptions regarding complete and incomplete combustion.  Some international 
organisations use harmonised emission factors for all countries, a method which inevitably will mask differences  in chemical 
fuel composition which often actually exist across the Member States. 

Community  emissions  in  1990.  As  a  result  of  reunification  in  1990  there  has  been 
considerable  economic  restructuring  in the former  GDR and  a significant  switch  in  fuel 
use  away  from  brown  coal. 
In  the  new  Lander,  C02  emissions  decreased  by  50% 
between  1987 and  1993 while emissions increased in former  West Germany by 2% over 
the  same period.  It  is doubtful  if the total  fall  in  emissions  in the former  GDR  can  be 
sustained  once the economy  is consolidated in that region.  Emissions are likely  to grow 
with  development  and  economic  growth  although  ongoing  investments  in  very  energy 
efficient  technologies  can  maintain  some  of  the  emission  reduction  which  has  been 
realised  between  1990  and  1994. 

While the period between  1990 and  1993 was characterised  by low economic growth in 
the  Community  (annual  percentage  change  of  0.7%  (14)),  1994  was  a year  of  recovery 
which  is  expected  to be  consolidated  over  the next  few years.  Projections  indicate  that 
annual  economic  growth  between  1995  and  2000  could  be  3.3% (15).  Part  of  the 
émission  decrease over the review period must be attributed to low economic growth  in 
the Community.  Apart from  economic growth projections, other factors indicate that the 
C02  trend  is  likely  to  turn  upwards  between  1995  and  2000  and  continue  to  rise 
thereafter.  Forecasts  from  the  International  Energy  Agency  (IEA)  which  are based  on 
country  energy  forecasts  for  EU-15, show  an increase  in  energy  related  C02  emissions 
between  1990  and  2000  of  6%,  and  for  the  eight  EU  countries  that  have  submitted 
forecasts  post-2000,  a 7% increase  by  2010  (16). 

Whereas  energy  related  emissions  in  most  sectors  have  levelled  off  during  the  review 
period,  or  substantially  fallen,  as  is  the  case  in  industry  largely  due  to  reduced 
production  levels, they  are  still  rising  in the transport  sector  (7% increase  1990-1993). 
Transport  demand  and  traffic  in  the  Community  are  expected  to  increase  significantly 
in  the  future,  especially  following  the  completion  of  the  internal  market.  Since  1970 
annual  growth  in  inland  transport  has  averaged  3.1%  for  passengers  and  2.3%  for 
goods  (17).  Emissions from  this growth  in traffic  volume will  only be partially  offset  by 
improvements  in  efficiency  but  emission  levels  overall  are projected  to  increase. 

Both in  1990 and in  1993, eight of the Member  States generated  more than 20% of their 
electricity  from  carbon-free  sources, nuclear  or  hydro.  However,  in  three  of  the  eight 
countries  that  have  nuclear  power  plants,  the  contribution  (%  of  total)  of  nuclear  in 
power  generation  has  decreased  as has the  contribution  (%  of  total)  of  hydro power  in 
eight  of  the  Member  States. 

(14) 

European Commission, Medium Term Projections 1995-2000, June 1995. 
European Commission, Medium Term Projections 1995-2000, June 1995.  The OECD  Economic Outlook (57), June 1995 also 

projects a consolidation of the economic recovery in Europe over the next few years. 

(16) 

(17) 

IEA, projections based on country energy forecasts, 1994. 

Commission of the European communities (1993).  Towards Sustainability.  A European community programme of  policy 

and action in relation to the environment and sustainable development. 

2.2 

REMOVAL  BY  SINKS 

Greenhouse  gas sequestration  is an option  applicable mainly  for  C02  since it is the only 
greenhouse  gas  which  has  large  natural  sinks,  in  the  oceans  and  in  biomass.  Other 
greenhouse  gases  are  mostly  broken  down  in  the  atmosphere  so  the  absorption  option 
is  not  relevant  to  them.  The  removal  of  C02  by  sinks  can  make  an  additional 
contribution  to  the  overall  reduction  of  C02  in  the  atmosphere,  particularly  in  those 
Member  States  that  have  a  significant  potential  to  increase  forest  areas.  The  national 
programmes  contain  only  very  limited  information  on  the  actual  removal  of  C02  by 
sinks  and  the  policies  and  measures  which  Member  States  have  taken  to  increase  the 
sequestration  of  C02  emissions. 

2.3 

CONCLUSIONS 

Based  on  Member  States'  own  targets  and  objectives,  five  countries  expect  to  reduce 
C02  emissions  by  the year  2000,  while  four  countries  aim  at  stabilising  emissions  and 
six  countries  plan  to  increase  C02  emissions  by  the year  2000. 

The  1990  inventory  of  C02  and  other  greenhouse  gas  emissions  has  been  prepared, 
based  on  the  national  inventories  and  other  up-to-date  information  supplied  by  the 
Member  States to the Commission.  Since this information  is more recent than that  used 
in  some  Member  States  national  programmes,  and  also  that  some  differences  in 
inventory methodologies exist, the EU inventory differs  from  some of the Member States 
national programmes.  The 1990 EU inventory forms the baseline for evaluating progress 
towards the C02  stabilisation target.  The compilation of an EU inventory for  subsequent 
years,  especially  the  1993  review  year,  has  not  been  possible  due  to  the  inadequate 
information  submitted  by  Member  States. 

EVALUATION  OF PROGRESS TOWARDS  THE TARGET 

3.1 

CONTENT  OF NA  TIONAL  PROGRAMMES 

This  report  takes  into  account  Member  States'  National  Communications/Programmes 
and their updates received officially  by the Commission by 30 June  1995. In  accordance 
with the Council Decision for  the Monitoring Mechanism for  C02  and other  greenhouse 
gases,  all  Member  States  have  submitted  national  programmes  (for  all  countries  but 
Belgium,  the  national  programme  is  the  Communication  under  the  Framework 
Convention  for  Climate  Change  (18)  ),  to  the  Commission,  containing  1990  emission 
inventories,  details  of  national  policies  and  measures, measures  for  the  implementation 
of  Community  legislation  and  policies,  and trajectories  of  future  emissions. 

Considerable  progress  has  been  made  since  the  submission  of  the  first,  very 
heterogeneous national programmes  (19) in  1993.  Nevertheless, the second evaluation  of 
progress  towards  the  C02  stabilisation  target  is  complex  due  to  the  fact  that  the 
information  contained  in  the  National  Communications/Programmes  still  is  either  not 
comparable between the Member States or incomplete, even though Member  States have 
made  considerable  efforts  to  satisfy  the  requested  reporting  requirements.  The  main 
factors  that  make  an  evaluation  problematic  are: 

•  The EU inventory  is based  on the latest information,  and not all Member  States have 
provided  updates  to  their  national  programmes  to  recalculate  the  measurement  and 
targets  in  relation  to  this  inventory.  Therefore  there  is  some  inconsistency  between 
the  inventories  in  the.Member  States  national  programmes  and  the  EU  inventory. 

•  Insufficient  information  about  measures,  to  give  an  accurate  picture  of  the  state  of 
implementation,  progress  and  availability  of  funding  for  these  measures,  make  it 
difficult  to  evaluate  the  effect  that  the  measures  will  have  on  C02  emissions  before 
2000. 

•  Not  all  countries  adequately  distinguish  between  policies  and  measures  put  in  place 
prior  to  the  base  year  of  their  climate  policy  and  measures  which  are  formally  part 
of  their  programme. 

•  C02  trajectories  for  the year  2000, developed through  different  models and based on 
different  assumptions, make  it  difficult  to  compile  a Community  trajectory  for  2000 
based  on  the  sum  total  of  the  Member  State  trajectories.  The  total  lack  of 
trajectories,  either  with  or  without  measures  or  both,  for  certain  Member  States 
further  complicate  the process. 

(18) 

For 1995 it was agreed by the Monitoring Mechanism committee that the EC would accept the National  communications 
as the national programmes.  All Member states have ratified the convention except Belgium, which is in the process of  doing 
so.  For the next evaluation, updates to the national programmes are expected. 
(19) 

The agreed format for content and structure of national programmes, and the reporting guidelines under the Framework 

Convention, were not available early enough to ensure consistency for the first evaluation. 

3.2 

CO2  LIMITA  TION  STRA  TEGIES  IN  THE  COMMUNITY 

C 02  emission  strategies  exist  at both  the Community  and the Member  State  level.  The 
Community  strategy  was adopted  by  the  Council  in  1991 (20).  It  includes: 

non-fiscal  measures 
ALTENER,  JOULE,  THERMIE); 

in 

the  framework  of  Community  programmes 

(SAVE, 

•  a  proposal  for  a  combined  C02/energy  tax  (now  a  revised  proposal  for  common 

guidelines  for  a  combined  C02/energy tax); 

a  Monitoring  Mechanism. 

The  Community  strategy  will  only  be  effective  to  the  extent  that  the  measures  which 
have  been  adopted  at  the  Community  level,  actually  are  implemented  in  the  Member 
States.  Most  Member  States  have  included  the Community  measures  in  their  national 
C 02  strategies. 
In  particular,  energy  efficiency  labelling  is  considered  to  have  great 
potential,  and five  countries  have  indicated  that  a carbon/energy  tax at Community  level 
is  necessary  to  achieve  their  national  targets  (Belgium,  Denmark,  Germany,  Italy, 
Netherlands). 

Only  Denmark,  Finland,  the Netherlands  and Sweden  have  introduced  C 02  taxes to  date 
but  most  countries  apply  VAT  on  energy  at  various  rates  and  many  countries  have 
introduced  taxes  on  fuels.  The Nordic  countries  which  have  C 02  taxes  in  place  would 
like to  increase  these  taxes  further  to fully  exploit  the potential  of the measure,  but they 
are  reluctant  to do so for  reasons  of  competitiveness,  unless  a similar  tax is  introduced 
at  the  Community  level. 

France  has indicated  that  a  C 02  taxation  at the EU  level  is necessary  in  order  to  limit 
its  C 02  emissions  at  their  level  indicated  in  their  National  Communication. 

Belgium  and  the  Netherlands  have  declared  that  unless  there  is  progress  on  the  EU 
C02/energy  tax proposal,  they  will  introduce  a tax unilaterally  in  1995.  Similarly,  the 
new  government  in  Austria  says  that  it is considering  introducing  a C 02  tax in  1996 or 
at  the  latest  in  1998 (21). 
If  the  revised  Commission  proposal  for  guidelines  for  the 
introduction  of  a  combined  C02/energy  is  adopted  by  the  Council,  the  introduction  of 
a  tax  would  be  done  within  a  common  framework  by  the Member  States. 

At  the  national  level,  all  Member  States  have  developed  and  adopted  C 02  limitation 
strategies  which  are described  in the National  Communications/Programmes.  In general, 
there  are three  main  approaches  to the limitation  of  C 02  emissions:  (examples  of  these 
approaches  in  various  Member  States  may be  seen  in  the  Annex). 

•  Efficiency 

improvements  which  result  in a reduction  in the level  of inputs to  achieve 
a  given  level  of  output.  Generally  for  C 02  emissions  we are concerned  with  levels 

(20) 

( 2 1) 

SECOD1744 final, October 1991. 

Fifth meeting of the Monitoring Mechanism Committee, 18 May 1995. 

10 

of energy efficiency.  Energy efficiencies  can be brought about through  technological 
advances  or  improved  management  practices, or  changes  at the  energy  system  level 
(eg  reducing  the total  emissions  from  power  and heat production  through  combined 
production  of  heat  and power). 

•  Consumption  changes  including  conservation  measures  which  result  in  an  overall 
reduction in consumption, for example through cutting out unnecessary uses of energy 
and modal  shifts  especially  in transport  involving  changes from  one energy  intensive 
form  (eg private  motor  cars) to  a less  energy  intensive  mode  (public  transport). 

•  Fuel switching  from  fuels with high to those with low or zero carbon  coefficients,  for 

example  shifting  from  coal  to  gas for  power  generation,  or to  renewables. 

An  additional measure is the sequestration Sequestration of C02  by soils and  vegetation 
which  similarly  reduces  the  level  of  C02  in  the  atmosphere  and,  which  has  a  similar 
effect  to  reducing  emissions. 

There are a range of different  measures that are used in the Member  States to implement 
C02  limitation  strategies  to  achieve  the  effects  described  above: 

•  Economic  instruments  such  as  C02  or  energy  taxes  are  used  in  order  to  provide 
incentives  to improve  efficiency  in the use of  energy,  changes  in  consumption  or  to 
encourage  switching  to  less carbon  intensive  fuels  - they  are  also  used  to  encourage 
expansion  of  forested  areas  and thus  increases  in  rates  of  C02  sequestration,  eg  via 
planting  subsidies. 

•  Regulations  introducing  energy  efficiency  standards  or  restricting  uses  of  particular 

fuels  encourage  energy  efficiency  improvements  or  fuel  switching. 

•  Information  &  education  programmes  are  used  to  encourage  energy  efficiency 
improvements  in industry  and energy  conservation  by firms  and householders - these 
schemes  include  energy  labelling  and  advertising  campaigns. 

•  Government  direct action is significant  where it is a major  user of energy  - this might 
include improvements in energy  efficiency  in buildings, investment in new electricity 
generation capacity or increased afforestation  of state-owned land. Government action 
to  de-regulate  energy  markets  may  create  incentives for  improvement  in the  thermal 
efficiency  of  generating  plants,  reduced  electrical  losses  from  transmission  and 
distribution  systems  and  can  result  in  switching  towards  fuels  with  lower  carbon 
content. 

•  Research  & development  mostly  has long term  impacts,  eg through  encouraging  the 
development  of  energy  efficient  and  renewable  energy  technologies  or  on  methods 
for  C02  disposal. 

11 

3.3 

TRAJECTORIES AND  EFFECTS  OF  MEASURES 

3.3.1  The Effect  of Policy Measures 

The Member  States have introduced or are in the process of implementing  a broad range 
of  policy  measures  in  order  to  tackle  C02  emissions.  The  most  wide  spread  measures 
are aimed at energy  conservation  and energy  efficiency  measures in end-use.  A number 
of  countries have programmes to encourage fuel  switching, particularly  via  government 
action  in the  energy  sector.  The national  C02  strategies  are summarised  in  the  country 
summary  pages  in  the  Annex. 

Member  States  have  the  option  of  introducing  different  types  of  measures,  the  choice 
of  which  has  a  significant  influence  on  the  degree  of  uncertainty  related  to  the 
effectiveness  of  the  measures.  The following  aspects  influence  the  effect  of  measures: 

Compulsory  versus  voluntary measures 

Compulsory  measures or 'hard measures', such as taxes, regulations and standards that 
must  be  complied  with,  and  which  have  a  fixed  date  of  implementation,  tend  to 
generate  more secure results than voluntary  measures or other  'soft  measures' such  as 
information  and  education.  Compulsory  measures  are  mostly  introduced  in  the 
household and commercial  sectors in the form  of efficiency  standards and regulations. 
These  measures  can  be  very  effective  even  in  a reasonably  short  period  of  time. 

For the four  countries that have introduced  C02 taxes, carbon and energy taxation  are 
a  fundamental  part  of  these  countries'  C02  strategies.  These taxes  tend  to  be  cross-
sectoral.  For reasons of competitivity, the C02 tax on industry is lower than for other 
sectors  in Denmark  and  Sweden  (where power  generation  is totally  exempt  from  the 
tax).  In  Denmark  and Finland,  rates  for  all  sectors  are  significantly  lower than  they 
would  be had  the tax  been  introduced  in  all  Member  States.  In  an  indirect  way  the 
C02  tax  is  an  important  part  of  the  C02  strategies  of  Belgium,  Germany,  Italy  and 
the  Netherlands  since  all  of  these  countries  have  stated  that  the  tax  is necessary  for 
them  to reach their  respective targets. France  is also  convinced  that the C02  taxation 
is an  important  part  of  its  C02  strategy  and  in terms  of  excise taxes  it has  increased 
the  latter  on  diesel  fuel  by  20% in  real  terms  between  1990  and  1995. 

Voluntary  measures in some form  are included in the C02 strategy of several Member 
States, and mainly introduced in the industry  sector with the aim of promoting  energy 
conservation. Voluntary  agreements, supported by a system of environmental permits, 
are  at the  core  of  the Dutch  C02  strategy.  The  efficiency  of  such  measures  depend 
on  the  size  and  structure  of  the  industrial  sector,  the  efficiency  of  monitoring  and 
enforcement  and  on  the  system  of  cooperation  between  the  social  partners.  The 
results,  which  can  be  very  efficient,  will  therefore  vary  from  country  to  country. 

Other  'soft  measures'  include  information  and  training  but  in  most  strategies  this  is 
viewed  as  a  support  measure  for  the  enhancement  of  energy  conservation  in 
particular,  rather  than  a core  measure. 

Funding  Status 

12 

Measures  that  have  secure  funding,  for  example  through  the  fixed  allocation  of  tax 
revenues  or  EU  grants,  will  be  more  secure  than  measures  that  depend  on  annual 
decisions  regarding  continued  funding,  as  do  for  example  subsidies  and  investments, 
both  public  and  private.  Subsidies  are  included  in  most  C 02  strategies  and  are  often 
given  for  the  promotion  of  renewable  energy  sources,  for  the  promotion  of  public 
transport  and  for  demand-side-management  (DSM). 

Funding  is  an  important  factor  influencing  the  outcome  of  all  C 02  strategies, 
particularly  in  times  of  recession  and  unemployment.  The  UK  expects  emissions 
reductions  as  a  result  of  the  establishment  of  an  Energy  Saving  Trust.  Due  to 
changes  in  the  anticipated  levels  of  funding  the  contribution  is  now  expected  to  be 
lower  (at  a  minimum  of  0.3  MtC)  than  originally  estimated  -  although  further 
schemes  are  being  developed  by  the  Trust  which  will  contribute  further  savings. 

•  Long  term  measures 

Long  term  measures,  such  as  R&D  measures  or  major  investments  in  infrastructure, 
are  uncertain  by  nature,  since  they  span  over  a longer  time  frame.  Funding,  political 
backing  or  other  important  determinants  for  the  implementation  of  these  measures 
could  change  with,  for  example,  fluctuations  in  economic  growth.  The  measures  in 
the  French  national  C 02  strategy  are  mostly  expected  to  have  a  long  term  impact, 
beyond  the  year  2000.  The  measures  included  in  the  strategies  of  the  southern 
Member  States  tend  to  focus  on  infrastructure  investments  which  are  also  for  the 
longer  term.  Often  the  measures  in  the  transport  sector  are  for  the  longer  term;  eg 
the  development  of  public  transport  or  energy  efficient  vehicles  and  modal  shift,  are 
medium  to  long  term  measures. 

The  likelihood  of  achieving  the  Community  stabilisation  target  for  C 02  emissions  is 
dependent  on  a  number  of  factors,  but  the  effect  of  policy  measures  is  of  key 
importance,  illustrated  by  the  magnitude  of  difference  between  the  with  and  without 
measures  scenarios  (see  A nnex  A,  Table  A 2).  Due  to  the  uncertainty  related  to  the 
implementation  and  actual  effect  of  measures,  the  with  measure  scenario  could  be 
viewed  as  an  estimated  reduction  potential,  although  the  real  outcome  in  2000  could  be 
It  is  therefore  very  important  to  be  able  to  estimate  the  effect  of 
very  different. 
the  National 
very 
measures,  but 
Communications/Programmes  since  the  information  provided  in  them  is  generally 
inadequate.  As  a rule, the  National  Communications/Programmes  are  unclear  regarding 
the  following  points. 

the  basis 

difficult 

so  on 

do 

of 

to 

•  The  status  of  policy  measures,  whether  adopted,  in  the  process  of  adoption  or  merely 
options  being  considered.  Even  where  this  is  indicated  it  is  difficult  to  discern 
whether  implementation  has  begun,  the  level  of  effort  related  to  the  implementation 
of  the  measure,  and  whether  funding  is  secured  for  the  future. 

•  Whether  or  not  the  measure  is  introduced  as  part  of  the  national  climate  change 

policy  or  for  some  other  policy  reason. 

•  The  effects  of  a measure  on  levels  of  emissions  measured  in  C 02  emission  reduction, 
consistent  with  the  difference  between  the  with  and  without  measures  scenarios. 

13 

is  provided  it  would  be  useful 

Even  where  this  information 
to  have  progress 
indicators  for  the  implementation  of  the  measures  so  as  to  be  able  to  evaluate  the 
likelihood  that  the  full  effect  of  the  measure  will  be  realised  by  the  year  2000.  The 
effects  of  measures  are  only  partially  comparable  across  countries  since  they  have 
been  estimated  using  different  models  and  assumptions. 

•  The  trajectories  do  not  give  projected  C 02  emissions  with  and  without  measures  for 
every  year  between  1990  and  2000,  against  which  the  effect  of  measures  to  date 
could  be  evaluated. 

3.3.2  The Effect  of  Removal  by  Sinks 

The  enhancement  of  removal  of  C 02  by  sinks,  generally  through  the  encouragement  of 
forestry,  is  not  counted  as  part  of  achieving  the  Community  C 02  target,  which  is 
currently  based  only  on  emissions.  One  problem  with  including  the  removal  by  sinks 
in  the  achievement  of  targets  is  that  trees  can  remove  carbon  from  the  atmosphere  for 
long  periods,  particularly  if  the  wood  is  harvested  and  used  for  construction  materials 
or  other  long  term  purposes,  but  not  permanently.  Afforestation  does  not  halt  the  gross 
growth  in  emissions  or  affect  the  main  cause  of  rising  C 02  emissions,  namely  the 
combustion  of  fossil  fuels.  This  may  be  an  issue  particularly  for  countries  where  the 
increase  in  sinks  would  otherwise  mask  an  increase  in  emission  levels  over  time. 

It  is  estimated  that,  within  the  Community,  there  may  be  a  total  of  350,000  ha  of  new 
planting  over  the  period  1990-2000  including  100,000  ha  on  former  agricultural  land  as 
a  result  of  reforms  to  the  Common  Agricultural  Policy  (CAP)  and  250,000  ha  in 
response  to  Member  State  policies  and  commercial  incentives  (22). 

Member  States  have,  in  most  cases,  included  measures  for  sink  enhancement  in  the 
national  C 02  strategies.  Four  countries  have  no  measures  for  the  enhancement  of  sinks 
and  one  country's  measures  are  only  in  the  conceptual  phase.  The  measures  which  are 
being  implemented  are  very  similar  in  all  the  countries,  including  for  the  most  part 
afforestation,  forest  maintenance  and  forest  management  and  promotion  of  long-lived 
wood  products. 

3.3.3  Member  State  Trajectories  for  the  Year  2000 

target,  Table  AI 

In  order  to  provide  an  up  to  date  picture  of  the  likely  achievement  of  the  Community 
(in  the  Annex)  provides  an  aggregation  of  country 
stabilisation 
trajectories  of  emissions  for  2000.  These  trajectories  are  based  on  Member  State 
submissions  in  National  Communications/Programmes,  and  updates  which  have  been 
officially  communicated 
the 
assumption  that  there  is  no  Community  C02/energy  tax  in  the  countries  that  have  not 
yet  introduced  such  a  tax. 

The  trajectories  are  based  on 

to  the  Commission. 

(22) 

Environmental  Resources  Management  (1994)  Forests as C02 sinks Final  Report  to  the  European  Commission  DCXI/B/4. 

14 

The  trajectories  and  projections  for  2000  have  been  adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the 
same  1990  baseline,  the  EU  C02  inventory  for  1990  (see  section  2.1).  Where  the 
Member  States  have  provided  both  a with  and  without  measure  scenario, the  effect  of 
measures  has  been  calculated  as  the  difference  between  the  two.  In  the  cases  where 
only one projection  has been given by the Member  States (generally  with measures), the 
other scenario is derived on the basis of information  in the National  Communication  on 
the  effects  of  measures,  and  using  a  consistent  set  of  assumptions  regarding  economic 
growth  rates  and fuel  prices.  However, Table Al  does not  show the 'without  measures' 
trajectories  since  they  were not  submitted  by  all  countries. 

By adding up the individual  Member  State trajectories  and projections, we can  estimate 
Community  C02  emissions  in  2000.  It  should  be noted,  however,  that  this  method  of 
compiling a Community trajectory  only can give indicative results, since the broad range 
of  models  and  assumptions  that  have  been  used  by  the  Member  States  introduces  a 
certain  amount  of  inconsistency  between  their  trajectories.  In  addition,  some  Member 
States  have  made  trajectories  of  projections  for  all  C02  emissions  whereas  others  only 
for  energy  related  emissions.  The  figures  in  the  table  do  not  take  account  of  these 
differences.  Finally,  in  virtually  all  cases, the base year  data  which  have  been  used  in 
the trajectories  and projections  do not correspond  with the EU C02  inventory.  By using 
the magnitudes  of  change  rather  than  absolute  levels, a link  can be established  between 
the trajectories  and the  EU  inventory, but this  method  further  results  in the  trajectories 
in  Table 3 differing  from  those  reported  by  the Member  States. 

Bearing  the  above  limitations  in  mind, this  analysis  indicates that the  Community  may 
stabilise  emissions  at  1990  levels  by  the year  2000  if  the  Member  States  achieve  their 
trajectories.  Germany  continues to be a main contributor  to C02  emissions, but its share 
would  fall  from  30%  in  1990  to  24%  in  2000.  Due  to  the  exceptional  situation  in 
Germany  as  a  result  of  unification  in  1990,  Germany  will  likely  make  a  significant 
contribution  to  Community  C02  emission  reductions.  However,  it  is  doubtful  whether 
this  reduction  is permanent  if  economic  growth  in  the  new Lander  is faster  than  it has 
been  since  1990. 
In  1994,  GDP  expansion  was  estimated  to  be  9%  in  the  Eastern 
Lander,  and  it is expected  that  the  former  GDR  will  continue  to be the  fastest  growing 
region  in  Europe  over  the  next  couple  of  years  (23).  Projections  for  Germany  will 
therefore  be  particularly  sensitive  to  assumptions  about  GDP  growth;  the  assumption 
underlying  the  minus  13% scenario  is not  specified. 

The trajectories  and projections  are in general  sensitive to assumptions  both  about  GDP 
growth  and  about  international  fuel  prices.  A major  source of  uncertainty  pertaining to 
the results described  in the table above, therefore,  relates to the fact that not all  countries 
have specified  the assumptions that they have used.  Where assumptions are transparent, 
they tend to differ  from  country to country  (eg Italy  assumed that oil prices in 2000 will 
be  $15/bbl  while  Sweden  assumed  that  the  same  international  prices  will  be  $28/bbl). 
Some  such  differences  may  reflect  real  differences  in  costs  of  delivered  fuel,  but  as 
regards, for  example, international  fuel  prices, assumptions across Member States should 
have  an  underlying  consistency. 

(23) 

OECD Economic  Outlook  (57), June  1995. 

15 

Another  source  of  uncertainty  is  the  estimated  implementation  of  measures,  both  as 
regards  the  technical  calculation  of  the  effect  of  measures,  and  the  level  of  actual 
implementation.  In the table  above the  effect  of  measures  has been  assumed  to  be  the 
difference  between  the with  and the without  measures scenario.  Not  all Member  States 
have provided  a without measures scenario, but even where it has been  submitted,  it has 
a different  meaning  for  different  Member  States.  Most countries have, in  some  way  or 
other,  included  measures  in  the  without  measures  scenario,  although  some  leave  them 
undefined,  for  example only  describing them  as 'optimising  the  use of  energy'  as in the 
case  of  Austria,  while  others  explicitly  state  that  the  measures  implemented  up  until  a 
specific  date have been  included  in the without  measures  scenario,  as in the  case of the 
Netherlands. 

If the with  and without  measures  scenarios have been  generated  at different  times, their 
underlying  external  assumptions  may  differ.  Such  differences  will  then  be  masked  as 
being  part  of  the  effect  of  the  measures, particularly  when  the  underlying  assumptions 
are not  transparent. 

In  the  with  measures  scenario,  Member  States  have  used  widely  different  models  and 
methods  of  estimating  the  impact  that  measures  would  have.  Regardless  of  method 
used,  the  estimation  is  complicated  by  the  fact  that,  for  example,  some  measures  may 
only  have  an  effect  if  implemented jointly  while  the  effect  of  other  measures  may  not 
be  fully  additive  because  their  reduction  potential  may  overlap.  The  way  in  which 
countries  incorporate,  into  their  macro-economic  models, the  effect  of  measures  which 
have  been  calculated  at the  micro  level,  also  varies  greatly  across  Member  States. 

Only  four  Member  States have clearly  quantified  each measure which  is included  in the 
with  measures  scenario  (Belgium,  Greece, Sweden  and UK).  In other  cases, where  the 
sum  of  the  quantified  measures  exceeds  the  difference  between  the  with  and  without 
scenarios, the assumption has been made that the sum of quantified  measures  constitutes 
a  potential  rather  than  an  actually  achievable  impact  (eg  for  Finland  16000-18000 
GgC02  is  assumed  to  be  the  potential  but  only  9000  GgC02  is taken  to  be  achievable 
effect  of  the  measures,  since  this  is the  difference  between  the  two  scenarios). 

Germany  has  listed  109  measures  but  none  of  them  has been  quantified.  The  German 
estimate  is further  complicated  by the fact  that no projections  have been provided  at all 
for  2000.  The  13% reduction  figure  is a rough  estimate which  has been  communicated 
to  the  Commission  (24)  but  none  of  the  underlying  assumptions  or  measures  which  are 
taken  account  of  are  known  (an  emission  reduction  range  of  13%-16%  was 
communicated  to  the  Commission;  the  lower  estimate  has been  assumed  in  Table  3). 

Related  to  the  calculation  of  the  effect  of  measures  is  the  uncertainty  regarding  the 
implementation  of measures discussed in the section above.  All countries have measures 
that  remain  to  be  implemented  and  for  some  Member  States  such  measures  constitute 
the major  part  of the  C02  strategy  (eg Belgium).  If  implementation  is not started  soon, 
the  measures  cannot  be  expected  to  have  an  effect  by  2000. 

(24) 

Oral communication,  Monitoring  Mechanism  Committee  meeting, February  14,1995. 

16 

Given that four  countries, namely France, Germany, Italy and the UK accounted for 72% 
of  Community  C02  emissions  in  1990,  minimising  uncertainties  associated  with  the 
implementation  of  their  respective  measures  is  of  particular  importance.  The  French 
measures  are  mainly  for  the  long  term  beyond  2000  (25).  According  to  the  German 
Communication,  88 measures are under implementation  but there is very little indication 
of  what  that  means  in  terms  of  level  of  effort,  duration,  political  commitment, 
availability  of funding  etc and as noted  above, the impact of the measures has not been 
quantified.  The Italian  plan  shows  an unusually  large  effect  of  measures  although  it  is 
not  indicated  where  this  reduction  would  come  from.  The  stage  of  implementation  of 
the measures is very  unclear  and none of the measures have been  separately  quantified. 
In the UK, following  changes in the anticipated  level of funding,  the contribution  of the 
Energy  Saving  Trust  is now  expected  to  be  lower  than  originally  estimated. 

Greece,  Ireland,  Portugal  and  Spain  all  have  'objectives'  that  take  account  of  their 
expected  higher  economic  growth.  These  objectives  correspond  to  their  respective 
projections.  Greece  revised  its  'realistic  objective'  downwards  from  a 25% increase  to 
15% +/-  3% increase  (26).  This  is more  related  to  revised  expectations  about  economic 
growth  than  to  a higher  than  expected  effect  of measures.  Emissions  in these  countries 
are  likely  to  be  more  linked  to  economic  growth  in  the  years  up  to  2000  than  to  the 
implementation  of  the  measures  in  their  national  C02  strategies.  It  is therefore  likely 
that if economic growth proceeds as forecasted  in these countries, emissions will  follow. 
The  measures  in  these  plans  are  not  fully  elaborated  (with  the  exception  of  Greece), 
highly  dependent  on the availability  of funding  and therefore  unlikely  to  counteract  the 
increase  in  emissions. 

Several  of  the  countries  that  use  nuclear  power  are  finding  it  increasingly  difficult  to 
acquire the public's consent to build new power plants (eg in Finland Parliament  rejected 
the  application  to  build  a fifth  nuclear  power  plant. 

In  France  four  1450  MW  PWR  units  are  now  under  construction  and  expected  to  be 
commissionned  before  the year  2000.  Having  regard  to  current  forecasts  of  electricity 
consumption, the improved  availability  of French nuclear plants and the expected  extent 
of  its  exports,  it is not  expected  that  further  nuclear  reactors  will  be ordered  before  the 
year  2000. However,  if  the  level  of  70 ECU  a tonne  of  carbon  not  emitted  were  to  be 
regarded  as  necessary  to  stabilise  emissions  from  the  European  Union,  the  French 
nuclear  investment  policy  would  be  revised. 
Sweden has made its projection  on the assumption that the planned phase-out of nuclear 
power  is not  initiated  before  2000.  Even  if  that  is the  case,  new  energy  demand  must 
be  met  with  power  generation  from  fossil  fuels,  especially  since  there  is, in  principle, 
a  ban  on  expanding  hydro  power.  Once  the  phase-out  is  begun  emissions  from  the 
power  generation  sector  are  likely  to  increase  significantly. 

(25) 

summary record of the Committee meeting of the Monitoring Mechanism, 19 October, 1994. 

(26' Summary record of the Committee Meeting of the Monitoring Mechanism, February 14,1995. 

17 

3.3.4  Alternative  Trajectories for  2000 

Since  there  is  considerable  uncertainty  related  to  the  trajectories  and  projections 
discussed  above,  it  is  useful  to  compare  them  to  alternative  projections;  a  modified 
projection  based on the Member  State trajectories but using a few common  assumptions, 
especially  a  sensitivity  analysis  on  growth  rates,  and  a further  Commission  projection 
based  on  new  energy  scenarios. 

In  the  'modified  projection',  country  GDP  growth  rates  (in  place  of  those  given  by  the 
Member States) have been used that are consistent with the projected  Community  growth 
rate  and fuel  import  prices, (particularly  for  crude oil) pertaining  to the EU  (27).  For the 
years  1990-1993,  estimated  actual  C02  emission  growth  from  energy  only  has  been 
used  (28).  Thereafter,  emissions  are  estimated  forecasted  based  on  OECD  GDP 
projections  for  1993-1995,  and  Commission  Services' projections  for  1995-2000  (29). 

The  'Commission  projection'  is  based  on  a  provisional  result  from  a  recently  updated 
energy  scenario  using the Commission's  energy models (Conventional  Wisdom  scenario 
2020).  It  shows  an  increase  in  emissions  from  energy  consumption  of  approximately 
5%. 

The Member States are committed to their trajectories shown in Table A 2 (in the A nnex) 
column  (a).  However,  the  alternative  scenarios  shown  in  columns  (b)  and  (c)  highlight 
the  uncertainty  present  in  any  future  projections. 

As  all  projections,  the  two  alternatives  which  are  presented  in  Table  A 2  have 
shortcomings.  The  different  results  in  these  trajectories  show  the  importance  of  the 
underlying  assumptions.  In  the Member  State trajectories  the  assumptions  about  GDP 
tend  to  be  lower  and  assumptions  about  fuel  prices  higher  than  the  ones  used  in  the 
modified  trajectory.  This partially  explains why the Member  State trajectory  for  EU-15 
shows  an  emission  decrease while the other two projections  show an increase.  Another 
reason may be that the Member  State trajectories  may assume successful  implementation 
of  all  measures  while  the  alternative  trajectories  may  allow  for  some  slippage  in 
implementation.  As regards these underlying  assumptions, it is likely  that the  modified 
and  the  Commission  projections  are  more  consistent  since  they  are  based  on  common 
external  assumptions.  The  methodological  problems  discussed  in the  section  above  are 
identical  for  the  Member  State  and  the  modified  trajectories  as  is  the  uncertainty 
pertaining  to  the  implementation  of  measures.  The  'bottom-up'  approach  used  in  the 
Member  State  trajectories  may  be  contrasted  with  the  Commission  trajectory  which  is 
based  on  'top  down'  analysis. 
Based  on  the  projections  above  and  the  uncertainty  related  to  the  implementation  of 
measures,  the  most  likely  development  is  an  increase  by  the  year  2000  in the  range  of 
0-5%.  This range also takes account of uncertainty  in fuel  prices and GDP growth rates. 

(27) 

Assumptions regarding GDP growth from Commission Services (DCll), 'Medium Term Projections 1995-2000", June 1995. GDP 

figures 1992-1995 from OECD Economic outlook (57), June 1995.  Import prices for oil taken from OECD Green model (June 
1995), which projects a change of S4979-S4052 per terrajoule from 1985-2000 for the EU.  Energy price assumptions have also 
been taken from "A View to the Future', September 1992. 
(28) 

Eurostat, June 1995.  Harmonised emission factors. 

(29) 

The 2000 emission data have been projected using a "change index" constructed on the basis of the OECD/Commission GDP 

growth rates and fuel prices taken from the OECD Green model, the GDP growth rates included in the National 
Communications, and assumptions about income and price elasticities. 

18  ( vc\ 

CONCLUSIONS 

There  has  been  considerable  improvement  in  the  quality  of  reporting  in  the  National 
Communications/Programmes  since  the  first  National  Programmes  were  submitted  for 
evaluation  in  1993.  However,  the  information  provided  in them  is  still  insufficient,  in 
terms of specific  details, to evaluate progress towards the Community stabilisation  target 
in  a  satisfactory  way.  Overall  there  is  still  considerable  uncertainty  regarding  the 
expected  outcome  in  the  year  2000.  Due  to  lack  of  key  information,  it  has  not  been 
possible  to  fully  apply  the  methodology  adopted  by  the  Monitoring  Mechanism 
Committee  (30).  Notably, the following  important compromises have been made for  lack 
of  information  and lead to  additional  uncertainty  about the expected  outcome  for  2000: 

•  Since there is no Community  C02 inventory  available for the review year  1993, it has 
not  been  possible  to  review  the  trend  in  emissions  between  the  base  year  1990  and 
the  review  year. 

•  The  compilation  of  a Community  trajectory  for  2000, which  should  be based  on  the 
trajectories  supplied  by  Member  States,  was  not  possible  due  to  difference  in 
methodology  and  assumptions  used  by  the  Member  States.  Two  alternative 
trajectories  have  therefore  been  presented.  One  is  a  modified  trajectory  with 
consistent growth  and fuel  price  assumptions, the other is based on the  Commission's 
energy  scenarios  for  2020.  Both  of  these  alternative  scenarios  estimate  higher  C02 
emission  for  2000  than  the  Member  States' own  trajectories. 

•  There  is  insufficient  information  about  the  implementation  of  measures.  This  is  a 
crucial  element in the assessment  of progress.  The reliability  of the trajectory  results 
are particularly hampered by the fact that the reporting of implementation of measures 
in  four  of  the  largest  contributors  to  C02  emissions,  Germany,  France, Italy  and  the 
UK  (representing  72%  of  emissions  in  1990),  is  insufficient. 
In  general,  it  is 
impossible  to  make  an  assessment  about  the  effectiveness  of  implementation  of 
measures  based  on  the  national  programmes  since  adequate  information  is  not 
provided. 

These  are  shortcomings  in  this  evaluation  report  that  should  be  addressed  in  the  third 
evaluation  due to take place in  1996.  More consistent  and transparent  data are  required 
the  documents  (31) 
to  allow  better  presentation  and  evaluation  in  subsequent  reports; 
agreed  at the Fifth  meeting  of Monitoring Mechanism  Committee  on  18 May, will  help 
provide  such  data.  Furthermore,  amongst  other possibilities,  it has been  suggested  that 
a  workshop  might  be  arranged  in  which  the  development  of  trajectories  could  be 
discussed.  The  Monitoring  Mechanism  Committee  also  foresees  a  working  group  to 
assist  in  the  process. 

(50) 

(31) 

Fifth Monitoring Committee meeting, May 18,1995. 

Fifth Monitoring Committee meeting, May 18,1995:  "Proposal for the Contents and Format of Annual Inventories' and 

•Proposal for the Methodology for the Evaluation of Progress and for the contents of  National Programmes". 

20 

According  to  the  results  of  this  evaluation  process,  it  cannot  be  excluded  that 
Community  emissions will increase within the range of 0-5% by 2000 over  1990 levels. 
The  lower  end  of  this  range  is based on the  assumption  that the maximum  potential  of 
the  estimated  effect  of  measures  as  reported  in  the  'with  measures  trajectories'  of  the 
Member  States, is actually realised.  Since current emissions are below  1990 levels, even 
stabilisation  by  2000  implies that  emissions will  be growing between  now and then.  If 
energy  prices remain low and GDP growth  is faster  than expected  the increase could be 
at  or  above  the  top  of the  range.  Such  an  increase  of  5 % or  more  would  be  a  serious 
departure  from  the  agreed  stabilisation  commitment. 

As mentioned  above there  is also  uncertainty  linked  to the implementation  of  measures 
and  many  will  only  have  an  impact  after  2000.  Five  countries  have  said  that  they  can 
only  meet  their  targets  if  a C02/energy  tax  is implemented  at the  Community  level.  If 
the  full  potential  is not  realised,  C02  emissions  could  increase  more,  unless  additional 
measures  are  implemented. 

This evaluation  takes  account of the  emissions and national  programmes of  15 Member 
States,  and  the  picture  has  therefore  changed  since  the previous  evaluation  which  only 
included  12.  Subsequent  evaluations  are expected to be based on improved  information 
by  including  recent  updates  by  Member  States  of  their  national  programmes  and  a 
reporting  format  more  closely  aligned  to  the  adopted  methodology. 

It appears  therefore  that,  at this stage, the Commission  is not in  a position  to  claim  that 
the  adopted  policies  will  be  sufficient  to  meet  the  agreed  targets  and  certainly  not  to 
ensure  reductions  in  C02  emissions  after  the year  2000. 

The  Council  of  22/23  June  1995  invited  the  Commission  to  modify  the  Monitoring 
Mechanism  decision  of  1993 to  extend  the  monitoring  of  greenhouse  gases beyond  the 
year  2000.  This  is  important  since  it  is  likely  that  the  Community  emissions  will  be 
increasing  after  2000 event though measures implemented  will have a continuing  effect. 
IEA  energy  projections,  recalculated  as  C02  projections,  show  that  for  the  eight  EU 
countries  that  have  submitted  post-2000  projections,  energy  related  emissions  in  2010 
could  be  7%  higher  than  in  1990  (32).  Taking  a  post-2000  perspective  therefore  also 
becomes  increasingly  important  for  subsequent  evaluations. 

(32) 

IEA Energy  related  C02 projections, June  1995.  The eight  countries  are: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, 

tuxembourg,  Netherlands  and  the  UK. 

21 

Annex A 

Tables  Showing  C02 
Inventories,  Trajectories 
and  Effects  of  Measures  for 
the  15  Member  States 

22-

Table A1  Member  State  Trajectories and  Projections  and  Effect of  Measures  (S> 1990-2000(CgCO2)-Adjusted  on  a  Common  1990  baseline 

(GgC02) 

Member  State 

(a) 
C 02  Inventory 
1990( 1) 

j 

I 

(b) 
Change  1990/2000 

(c) 
%  change 
1990/2000 

(d) 
Trajectory  2000 
(With  Measures)  ° 

(e) 
Effect of  Measures 

Comments'3 

I  Austria 

59200  ! 

380 

0.6 

59580 

5520 

j  STAB  scenario  is  'with  measure'  scenario.  STAB  aims  at  stabilising 
i  emissions  at  1990  levels  by  2005  (reduction  of  8800  G g C 02  over  1ER 
!  reference  scenario  for  2005).  Effect  of  measures  interpolated  for  2000. 

Belgium 

114500 

•1300 

-1.1 

113200 

13630 

Projection  is  temperature  corrected.  Bureau  de  Plan  scenario  without  a 
C O,  tax  is  'with  measure'  scenario. 

Denmark 

Finland 

France 

52100 

53900 

-6200 

-11.9 

16000 

29.7 

366500 

31840 

45900 

69900 

398340 

13500 

|  Energy  2000  follow-up  trajectory  1990/2000  is  'with  measure'  scenario. 
|  Aim  is  to  achieve  20%  reduction  by  2005  compared  to  1988  levels. 

9000 

j  Energy  related  emissions  only.  Assumption  that  all  imported  electricity 
|  produced  domestically  in  future  (see  country  summary). 

73200 

|  Scenario  1 from  note  to  Monitoring  Mechanism  Committee  is  'with 
;  measure'  scenario,  including  sinks. 

Germany 

1013000 

-131560 

-13.0 

881440 

144330 

Greece 

LP 

Ireland 

86100 

30720 

12320 

14.3 

6300 

20.5 

98420 

37020 

9590 

1390 

Italy 

436300 

12630 

2.9 

448930 

54370 

Luxembourg 

13300 

-3200 

-24.1 

10100 

7820 

'Without  measure'  scenario  is  derived  based  on  assumptions  of  consistent 

j 
j  set of  fuel  prices  and  GDP  growth  rate.  'With  measure'  scenario  for 
I  2000  is  13%  reduction  over  1990  levels,  as communicated  to 
I  Commission  in  Monitoring  Mechanism  Committee  meeting  in  February 
!  1995. 

'With  measure'  scenario  is  'most  realistic  objective'  of  15%  increase  by 
2000  over  1990  levels. 

! 
'Without  measure'scenario  is  derived  based  on  assumptions  of 
j  consistent  set  of  fuel  prices  and  GDP  growth  rate.  'With  measure' 
j  scenario  20%  increase  by  2000  over  1990  levels. 
!  quantification  of  measures. 

Insufficient 

'With  measure'  scenario  1-5%  (average  3%)  increase  by  2000  over  1990 
levels,  as communicated  to  Commission  in  Monitoring  Mechanism 
Insufficient  quantification  of 

j 
j 
|  Committee  meeting  in  February  1995. 
I  measures. 

'Without  measures'  scenario  derived  based  on  assumptions  of  consistent 

! 
j  set  of  fuel  prices  and  GDP  growth  rate.  Insufficient  quantification  of 
i  measures. 

(,)  C 02  inventory  1990,  June  1995. 
(2)  Absolute  change  1990/2000  based  on  Member  State  trajectories. 
(3)  'With  measures'  scenario,  based  on  C 02  inventory  for  EU-15  1990.  These  trajectories  and  projections  have  been  adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  C 02  baseline  inventory  for  1990. 
<4> Difference  between  'with'  and  'without'  measures  scenarios,  Member  State  trajectories. 
tS)  Some  of  the  measures  are  understood  in  a very  broad  sense 

The  trajectories  and  projections  for  2000  have  been  adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  Corinair  inventory  1990  shown  in  column  (a).  For  ail  but  five  countries,  the  Corinair 
inventory  figure  is higher  than  the  1990  trajectory  baselines  used  by  the  Member  States.  For  France,  Ireland  and  Sweden  the  1990  trajectory  baseline  corresponds  with  the  Corinair  emission  figure  for 
1990,  while  for the  Netherlands  and  the  UK  the  Corinair  figure  is  lower. 

Member  State 

(a) 
C 02  Inventory 
1990  (,) 

(b) 
Change  1990/2000 
,a 

j 
! 
I 

(c) 
%  change 
199f>/?nnn 

(d) 
Trajectory  2000 
AVfth  MPiKifrpO  (3) 

(e) 

Effect  of  Measures 

;  Netherlands 

151800 

-600 

| 

-0.4 

151200 

10500 

i  Portugal 

42500 

15300 

j 

36 

57000 

7030 

j  Spain 

227300 

54100 

j 

23.8 

281400 

594 70 

;  Sweden 

61300 

2 700 

j 

4.4 

64000 

10200 

Comments'5* 

'With  measures'  and  'without  measures'  scenarios  from  Energy  Policy 
Scenario.  Sectoral  quantification  of  measures. 

'Without  measures'  scenario  derived  based  on  assumptions  of  consistent 
set  of  fuel  prices  and  GDP  growth  rate. 
'With  measures'  scenario  is  40% 
increase  in  emissions  by  2000  over  1990  levels.  No  quantified  measures. 

'Without  measures'  scenario  is  derived  based  on  assumptions  of 
consistent  set  of  fuel  prices  and  GDP  growth  rate.  'With  measures' 
scenario  is  25%  increase  by  2000  over  1990  levels.  No  clear 
quantification  of  measures. 

'With  measure'  scenario  is 4%  increase  by  2000  over  1990  levels,  not 
temperature  corrected,  and  stabilisation  if  temperature  corrected.  All 
measures  included  in  the  scenario  are  quantified. 

-F 

j  UK 

j  EU-15 

j 

i 

579800 

| 

-35140 

j 

-6.1 

3,285,620 

j 

-26430 

j 

-0.8 

j 

j 

544660 

71740 

'With  measures'scenario  from  EP-65,  central  GDP  growth,  high  fuel 

j 
j 
';  prices  ,  reduction  of  6%  by  2000  compared  to  1990  levels.  All  measures  ; 
j 
j  in  scenario  quantified. 

3,260,900 

491,290 

I 

; 

IJ'  'With  measures'  scenario,  based  on  C 02  inventory  for  EU-15  1990. 
|4)  Difference  between  'with'  and  'without'  measures  scenarios,  Member  State  trajectories. 

|  '"  C O}  inventory  1990,  June  1995. 
{  (})  Absolute  change  1990/2000  based  on  Member  State 
! 
j 
I  1SI Some  of  the  measures  are  understood  in  a very  broad  sense. 
I 
The  trajectories  and  projections  for  2000  have  been  adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  basel 
!  inventory  figure  is  higher  than  the  1990  trajectory  baselines  used  by  the  Member  Slates.  For  France,  Irelan 
;  1990,  while  for  the  Netherlands  and  the  UK  the  Corinair  figure  is  lower. 

trajectories. 

ine,  the  Corinair  inventory  1990  shown  in  column  (a). For  all  but  five  countries,  the  Corinair 
d  and  Sweden  the  1990  trajectory  baseline  corresponds  with  the  Corinair  emission  figure  for 

j 
j 

Table  A 2 Alternative  Trajectories  for  the  Year  2000  (percentage  change 

1990/2000) 

Member State 

(a) 
Member State 
Trajectories/ 
Projections (1) 

j 

00 
Modified  Trajectories/ 
Projections  m 

(c) 
Commission 
Projection (J) 

Notes 

Austria 

!  Belgium 

!  Denmark 

•  Finland 

:  Fiance 

•  Germany 

•  Greece 

:  Ireland 

ft 

j  Italy 

j  Luxembourg 

!  Netneriands 

j  Portugal 

j  Spain 

j  Sweden 

j  UK 

I  EU-15 

1  : 

-1  : 

•12 

30 

-13 

j 

14 

20  I 

3  ! 

-24 

0  • 

36 

21  = 

4 

j 

-6  j 

-1  ! 

j  Growth  rates  differ  marginally  but fuel  prices  assumed  in (a) are  very  high  compared  to 
I  (b) which  explains  low  emission  growth  in (a). 

I  Due to  lack  of  information  about GDP  growth  rate, the  assumed  growth  rate  is  0.7% 
j  lower than  in modified  trajectory. 

GDP  growth  assumptions  differ  marginally  between the  (a) and  (b) but fuel  prices  are 
very  high  in (a) and price  elasticity  is  very high,  leading to fall  in emissions  in (a). 

j  Lower  GDP  growth  rate  and higher fuel  prices  in (a) than  in  (b) but the  income  effect 
j  is higher  leading to  higher  emissions  in (b). 

!  GDP  growth  rate  lower  and fuel  prices  higher  in (a) than  in (b), leading to  lower 
j  emissions  in  (b)(a) 

j  Due to  lack  of  information  about  growth  rate, it is  assumed  to  be  0.7% lower than  in 
j  modified  trajectory. 

{  Due to  lack  of  information  about  growth  rate,  it is assumed  to  be 0.7% lower than  in 
j  modified  trajectory. 

j  Due to  lack  of  information  about  growth  rate, it is  assumed  to  be  0.7% lower than  in 
j  modified  trajectory. 

|  Much  higher  GDP  growth  rate  in (b) than  in (a)  and higher  fuel  price  increase.  Income 
I  effect  outweighs price  effect  leading to  higher  emissions  in (b). 

!  Growth  rate  in  (a)  lower than  in (b).  Fuel prices  are the  same.  Emission  reduction 
j  greater  in (a). 

j  Higher  GDP  growth  rate  in (b) than  (a) and  high  income  elasticity  explains  higher 
j  growth  in  emissions.  Fuel prices  higher  in  (a) than  in (b). 

Due to  lack of  information  about  growth  rate, it is  assumed to  be  0.7% lower than  in 
modified  trajectory. 

i  Lower  growth  rate  and  higher fuel  prices  in  (a) than  in (b), explains  higher  emissions 
!  in(b). 

j  Lower  growth  rate  and  higher fuel  prices  in (a) than  in (b).  Price  effect  dominates 
| 

leading  to  lower rise  in  emissions  in (a). 

j  Higher  GDP  growth  rate  in  (b) leading to  higher  emissions than  in (a). 

5.4  I  Aggregate  figure  for  EU-total. 

3  ! 

33 

j 

13  • 

•10  : 

19  : 

25 

6  : 

-20 

10  : 

36 

23 

6  : 

-2 

j 

3  j 

j  (1)  Trajectory 
j  (2>  Trajectory 
:  (3)  Trajectory 
tammmsmam 

1990/2000, based  on  Corinair  COz  inventory  (column  (c)  in Table  Al). 
1990/2000, based  on modified  common  assumptions  for  GDP  and fuel  prices. 
1990/2000  from  Commission  Services  (DGXVII), Conventional  Wisdom  scenario  2020. 
HHSHHBHHH^MHHaMHBBnBnBHnBHiHBBKEHHKHHHaaHaHMH 

Annex B 
Country Summaries 

x> 

AUSTRIA 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 
j 

| 

j 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

!  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C 02 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
I 

59200 

\ 

I 

0.6 

8 

j 

I 

5520 

Target/Objective and Comments:  - Stabilization  scenario  (by  2000) 

-  Reduction  target  committed  to  : 20% by  2005  based  on 

emission  in  1988  (Toronto  target) 

Summary  of  measures: Most  measures  focus  on  reducing  end  use  energy  consumption  rather  than  on  fuel 
switching.  The  quantified  measures  are geared  towards  the promotion  of renewables  for  heating  purposes, 
through  subsidies  and  tariff  restructuring.  The  same  instruments  are used  to  promote  district  heating. 
Attention  is  also  given  to reducing  energy  consumption  in the  transport  sector, for  example  a vehicle  tax 
which  reflects  fuel  consumption.  Measures  geared  towards  industry  are  largely  voluntary.  Measures  to 
enhance  sinks  include  afforestation,  forest  management,  increase  in  long-lived  wood  products. 

Quantified measures 

j  Use  energy  of  surplus  straw  (agricultural,  district  heating  and 
j  building  subsidies;  regulations  on  supply  of  electricity  to  public 
!  grid 

j  0.60  M t C 02 
; 
j 

Use  of  biogas  as  fuel  and  raw  material  (district  heating  and 
building  subsidies;  regulation  on  supply  of  electricity  to  public 
grid 

j  2.90  M t C 02 
j 
j 

!  Use  of  solar  energy  especially  for  water  heating;  use  of  solar 
j  collectors;  passive  solar  energy  use  (subsidies,  building 
j  regulations) 

!  0.60-1.30  M t C 02 
j 
j 

TOTAL 

4.10-4.80  MtCO, 

Categorisation of  measures: The  measures  are divided  into  measures  under  implementation,  measures  which 
are planned  to  be  undertaken  under  the  next  legislative  period  (1994-1998)  and  measures  at the  conceptual 
stage.  The  quantified  measures  are  all under  implementation. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000 relative to target(2):  In the with  measure  scenario  (3), Austria  expects  to 
stabilise  C02  emissions  by  2000.  It  is not  clear which  measures  are  included  in  the  projection.  The 
assumption  made  is that  energy  savings  and  structural  changes  will  reduce  emissions, but  only  a third  of  the 
potential  is realised.  Energy  and  carbon  intensity  are  assumed  to fall  by  2.1% and  0.5% respectively  per 
year  to  2005. If  the measures  which  are planned  for  the  legislative  period  1994-1998  are required  for 
stabilisation,  the  outcome  will  only  be  secured  if  implementation  is  begun  immediately.  Measures  in  the 
conceptual  phase  are not  likely  to have  an  impact  before  the year  2000.  This  projection  can  also  be put  in 
question  by  the  fact  that  very  high  fuel  prices  have  been  assumed  for  2000. 

The new  government  has  expressed  a political  will  to  introduce  a C02  tax  by  1996.  Depending  on  the 
timing  and  the  rate  at which  the tax  is  introduced,  it  could  make  a substantial  contribution  to meeting  the 
stabilisation  target. 

(1>  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

<2)  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above 

(3)  Stabilisation  scenario  (STAB). 

2} 

BELGIUM 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C 02 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
I 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

114500 

I 

| 

-1.1 

3 

j 

j 

13630 

Target/Objective and Comments:  5% reduction  by  2000  compared  to  1990 level.  Temperature  corrected 
target. 

Summary  of  measures:  Greatest  impact  expected  from  increased  efficiency  in  electricity  generation  and  shift 
to  electric  steel  industry.  Substantial  impact  also  expected  in  the residential  sector  through  a broad  range  of 
measures  of  different  types  and  effects  including:  promotion  of  cogeneration  (combined  heat  &  power); 
promotion  of  energy  efficiency  household  appliances  and  discouragement  of  electric  heating;  fiscal 
instruments  include  changes  to  tax  benefits  and  parking  fees  in  the transport  sector,  and  grants  to  encourage 
energy  conservation  in  public  buildings.  No  measures  to  enhance  sinks. 

Quantified measures 

j  Improvement  of  insulation  in  new  buildings  in  the  residential 
j  and  commercial  sectors 

j  0.40  M t C 02 
j 

j  Increased  use  of  natural  gas,  improved  performance  of  heating 
|  installations  and  hot  water  boilers 

j  1.90  M t C 02 
j 

I  Promotion  of  energy  efficiency  household  appliances  and 

j  0.75  M t C 02 

1 1. 
! 

!  2. 
j 

j  3. 

; 

I  lighting 

;  4. 

j  Discouraging  of  use  of  electric  heating 

j  Subtotal  for  residential/commercial  sector 

j  5. 

;  Transport  plans  for  company  employees 

!  6. 
j 

!  7. 
• 

8. 

9. 

j  Reduced  access  by  passenger  and  transport  vehicles  to  city 
j  centres 

I  Other  measures  for  the  promotion  of  public  transport  in  urban 
:  areas 

!  Reduced  road  transport 

;  Fiscal  policy  in  transport 

10. 

;  Increased  enforcement  of  speed  limits 

j  Subtotal  for  transport 

j 

j  0.10  M t C 02 

j  3.15  MtC02 

j  0.125  M t C 02 

j  0.12  M t C 02 
I 
j  0.10  M t C 02 
j 

j  0.05  MtC02 

j  0.75  M t C 02 

j  0.60  M t C 02 

j  1.75  MfC02 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

! 
: 

j 
! 

11. 

12. 

13. 

14. 

15. 

!  Measures  in  the  industrial  sector:  energy  audits  for  suppliers 

j  0.64  M t C 02 

j  Promotion  of  renewable  energy 

j  Promotion  of  cogeneration 

:  Subtotal  of  all  additional  measures 

j  0.20  M t C 02 

j  2.00  M t C 02 

j  7.74  MtC02 

j  Shift  towards  electric  steel  production  (implemented) 

:  2.00  M t C 02 

!  Increased  efficiency  in  electricity  production 

;  4.00  M t C 02 

TOTAL 

13.74  MtCO, 

Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

Categorisation of  measures:  The measures  have been  divided  into  those which  are currently  being 
implemented  (adopted  before  1994), complementary  measures  which  are the focus  of the plan  (to  be 
implemented  after  1994), and  other  associated  measures  which  are for  the  longer  term.  The two  most 
important  measures  under  implementation  are the technical  improvements  to  the nuclear  plants  and  the 
installation  of  electric  steel  works.  The  quantified  measures  fall  into  the  complementary  measures  category. 
They  have, however,  been  subject  to  a ministerial  decision. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000  relative to target(1):  Belgium  has  clearly  stated  that  in  the  absence  of a 
C02  tax, the target  will  not  be reached,  it will just  do  a little better  than  stabilisation  (2).  With  a C02  tax, 
however,  the  5% reduction  target  for  2000  could  be reached.  The tax  is  expected  to  reduce  emissions  by 
7%-10%.  Belgium  is  considering  implementing  a C02  tax  in  1995. 
implementation  of  some  of the  quantified  measures  is uncertain  and  sometimes  for  the  longer  term,  e.g. 
voluntary  measures  in  industry  and  measures  in the transport  sector which  are dependent  on  the  development 
of public  transport.  If the measures  are to  have  an  impact  before  2000, implementation  must  be  initiated 
immediately. 

(,)  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

(2)  Two  projections  presented.  Bureau  de  Plan  and  Centre  d'étude  économiques  de  la  KUL,  and  although  they  provide  a  range,  they  show  largely  the  same  result 

DENMARK 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
! 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

52100 

j 

j 

-11.9 

7 

! 

j 

13500 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Target  for  C02  emissions  adjusted  for  imports  of  electricity  in  base  year, 
i.e.  C02  emissions  are calculated  on  the  assumption  that  all  electricity  was  generated  in  Denmark  in  base 
year.  Using  unmodified  data, the target  is equivalent  to a rise of  6.4%  over  1990 levels. 

Denmark  imports  electricity  from  Norway  and  Sweden  but  the  quantity  varies  over time  depending  on  water 
availability  and  therefore  the  level  of production  from  hydro  sources  in  the two  exporting  countries. 
Denmark  has  a largely  fossil  fuel  based  energy  supply  system  whereas  Norway  and  Sweden  have  high 
contributions  from  hydro  and  nuclear  (Sweden  only).  In  1990 Denmark  imported  significant  quantities  of 
electricity.  Therefore  its  C02  emission  levels  were  lower than  might  be expected  in  a typical  year,  and 
10.7% lower  than  if  all  electricity  had  been  generated  in  Denmark. 

Summary  of  measures:  Efficiency  improvements  in end  use through  the  implementation  of  efficiency 
standards  for  electrical  appliances  and  other  equipment  are expected  to  make  a large  contribution  to  C02 
reductions.  Also  important  is promotion  of  CHP through  subsidies.  New  generating  capacity  will  come 
from  construction  of gas-fired  plants  after  2000.  Denmark  has  a C02  tax  in place  and  it  was  recently 
increased.  Then  intention  is to  introduce  more  green  taxes  in  all the  sectors  of the  economy.  In  the 
transport  sector  emphasis  is on  promoting  public  transport, e.g.  investment  support  for  purchase  of  clean 
vehicles.  Other  measures  include  promotion  of energy  efficient  driving  through  information  and  training  and 
promotion  of rail  transport.  No measures  to enhance  sinks. 

Quantified measures: (a more  detailed  breakdown  is only  available  for  the year  2005) 

:  1. 

!  Oil  &  gas  (refineries,  North  Sea) 

:  2. 

j  Transport 

i  3. 

|  Energy  Sector 

j  TOTAL  13.5MtC02 

;  0 

j  0 

j 

j 

\ . J } . : ? } $ £ 2 l\ 

j 

Categorisation of  measures:  The  measures  are  included  in  a set  of plans  which  have been  adopted  by 
government:  the  1990  action  plans  for  energy  and  transport respectively,  the  1992  action  plan  on  waste  and 
recycling, the  1993  follow  up  on  the  1990 energy  action  plan,  and  the  1993 white  paper  on  transport.  The 
quantified  energy  measures  are  all  included  in  the  1993 follow  up  energy  plan.  No  measures  for  the 
transport  sector  have  been  quantified.  In  a separate  communication  to  the  Commission  it has  been 
announced  that  a set  of  green  taxes  will  be  introduced. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000 relative to target(2):  Based  on  the  'with  measures  scenario'  (3), Denmark 
will  reach  the* 5% reduction  target  (corrected  for  electricity  imports)  if  all the measures  included  in  the  1993 
follow  up  action  plan  are implemented.  The reduction  will  come  from  the  energy  sector.  The  effect  of 
measures  in  the  transport  sector  is  assumed  to be  nil  and  emissions  are expected  to  increase  in  this  sector 
between  1990  and  2000. 

In  an  official  note  to  the  Commission,  Denmark  announces  that  it  has  problems  implementing  two  important 
measures:  the  introduction  of  efficiency  standards  and  appliances  due to delays  relating  to  the  EU  directive 
on  efficiency  standards;  and  the  conversion  of  electrically  heated  buildings  to  central  heating  by  gas  or 
district  heating  since  a voluntary  agreement  with  the  power  industry  has  not yet  been  reached. 

("  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  1£U-I 5. 

(2)  The  discussion  is  based  on  M e m b er  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the.  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figi 

mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above 

0)  Revised  estimate,  June  1995,  showing  total  domestic  energy  emissions  1990-2000,  including  flaring. 

S* 

Regarding  standards  for  household  appliances, the proposed  EU  Directive  on  refrigerators  is  less  ambitious 
than  foreseen  Danish  standards, both  as regards  the  stringency  of the  standards  and  the timing  (it  would 

enter  into  force  after  2000).  This  measure  may  therefore  be  lost  to  the  Danish  national  plan.  The  two 
measures  were  together  expected  to  contribute  3% of the  C02  reduction  planned  for  2005. 

In  the  note  to  the  Commission,  Denmark  also presented  a set  of new  green  taxes  which  have  been  adopted 
by  Parliament  and  will  enter  into  force  in  1996: an  S02  tax  (1.5  ECU/kg  S02);  a C02  tax on  natural  gas; 
an  increased  C02  tax  on  energy  for  industrial  processes  and  commercial  energy  use  (including  electricity), 
with  one rate for  light  processes  (13ECU/t  C02)  and  a virtually  vanishing  rate  (0.5ECU/t) for  energy 
intensive  processes.  The  low  rate will  be  conditioned  on  the  implementation  of  an energy  audit  and 
voluntary  agreements  on  energy  savings.  Without  such  an  agreement, the  default  tax  is  3.5  ECU/t  C02. 
The rather  elaborate  system  of exemptions  and recycling  is necessary  to  avoid  losing  competitiveness  vis  a 
vis  other  European  countries  that  have not  introduced  a similar tax.  Until  this  problem  is  overcome, 
Denmark  cannot  exploit  the full  potential  of the  C02  tax  instrument. 

The  trajectory  can  be  questioned  by  the fact  that  the  assumed  fuel  prices  and  price  elasticity  very  high, both 
factors  contributing  to  a large  estimated  C02  emission  reduction. 

^\ 

FINLAND 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C 02 
| 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

! 

53900 

\ 

I 

29.7 

33 

j 

! 

9000 

Target/Objective and Comments:  The  Finnish  target  is to  'stop  growth  in  energy  related  C02  emissions  by 
the  end  of  the  century'.  Finland  has  no  base year for  its  target  which  makes  it  unclear  in  numerical  terms. 

Summary  of  measures:  The  national  communication  is based  on  Government  programmes  approved  in  the 
1990s  that  relate  to  climate  change  policy.  Some  programmes  were  approved  specifically  to  implement 
climate  change  policies  but  some  were  adopted  for  other  reasons.  A main  focus  of the  C02  strategy  is 
energy  conservation  in  end-use, to  be  achieved  to  a large  extent  through  economic  instruments.  Finland  has 
C02  tax  (since  1990)  and  energy  taxes  in place, encouraging  fuel  switching, energy  conservation,  use of 
renewables,  and  changes  in production  and  consumption  patterns.  Other  measures  to  encourage  energy 
conservation  include  voluntary  agreements  with  industry  and  information  and  education.  Promotion  of 
biofuels  is  important  (aim  to  increase  consumption  by  25% by  2005  over  1994  levels).  Measures  used  in 
the  transport  sector  have  mostly  been  fiscal  and  economic  instruments  aimed  at reducing  fuel  consumption 
and  encouraging  modal  shift.  A  new  action  programme  for  transport  has  been  adopted  aiming  at  restraining 
growth  in  traffic;  a mam  tool  is  economic  instruments.  Measures  to  enhance  sinks  are  important  and  focus 
on  forest  management  and  commercialisation  of wood  products. 

Quantified measures 

I  Increased  C02/energy  tax  (to  FIM  38.30/tonne  C 02  and  FIM 
j  3.50/MWh. 

j  2000  Gg  C 02 
j 

|  Energy  conservation  programme,  including  a  gradually 
;  increasing  energy  tax. 

[  6000-8000  Gg  C 02 
j 

|  Promotion  of  biofuels  (25%  increased  consumption  by  2005 
j  over  1994  levels). 

j  3000  Gg  C 02 
j 

I  Energy  technology  development  programmes  (1993-1998)  to 
j  develop  technology  for  renewable  energy  sources  through 
;  financing  of  demonstration  projects  and  R&D. 

j  1000-5000  Gg  C 02 
j 
j 

TOTAL  12000-18000  Gg  C 02 

Categorisation of  measures:  The  majority  of  the  Finnish  measures  in  the national  communication  have  been 
approved  by  Parliament  and  are under  implementation  (e.g. efficiency  improvements  in  energy  production 
and  end-use  and  energy  and  carbon  taxes).  All  of the  quantified  measures  are under  implementation.  A 
second  category  of  measures, mainly  aimed  at the transport  sector, have  also  been  adopted  by  Parliament, 
but  the  stage  of  implementation  is  unclear. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000  relative to target<2):  Based  on the  'with  measure  scenario'  (3), Finland  will 
increase  emissions  by  16% in  2000  over  1990  levels.  This  takes  account  of effects  of energy  taxation, 
energy  conservation  (some  overlap  in  the figures  noted  above), increased  use  of  bio-energy  and  the  adoption 
of new  technologies  (some  overlap  in the  figures  noted  above). 

'  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

1  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
lentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

'  16%  is  the  median  of  a  range  given  as  the  'with  measures  scenario'  (10-22%  increase). 

32-

The  electricity  import  situation  and  the  structure  of the  electricity  production  capacity  is  currently  being 
reviewed.  Finland  has  consistently  imported  a large  share  of  its  electricity  from  neighbouring  countries  but 
there  are major  uncertainties  and  conditions  attached  to continuing  doing  so.  In  the next  few  years  Finland 
will  have  to  decide  how  it  is going  to produce  the  base  load  capacity  needed.  The  expected  increase  in 
emissions  in  Finland  is  largely  due to  the  assumption  that  electricity  imports  are replaced  with  domestic 
production  capacity.  Depending  on  the  choices  that  are made regarding  domestic  base  load  capacity,  the 
increase  in  emissions  could  range  from  10-22% (16% mentioned  above  is  the  median).  Recent  estimations 
show, however,  that  the  total  increase  in domestic  electricity  production  capacity  in  2000  would  not  likely 
be met  by  coal  fired  power  plants. The  additional  reduction  would  largely  come from  restructuring  the 
electricity  market.  The  effect  of measures  are  also  influenced  by  the fact  that  Parliament  has  decided  against 
the  construction  of  a fifth  nuclear  power  plant.  No  additional  nuclear  power  plants  are  likely  to  be 
constructed  in  Finland  in  the  near  future. 

The  impact  of the  C02  tax  is reduced  by  the  lack  of  action  at the  international  level;  for  reasons  of 
competitiveness  the  tax  remains  too  low  to  fully  exploit  the potential  of  the  measure.  The  effect  of  energy 
taxation  is  also  hampered  by  the  lack  of  international  coordination. 

The  trajectory  assumes  rather  low  GDP  growth  and  high  fuel  prices, but  the  assumed  income  elasticity  is on 
the  high  side.  The  effect  on  estimated  emissions  might  cancel  out. 

A3> 

FRANCE 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

!  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgCOj) 
I 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

! 

Member  State  Trajectory  (I) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

| 

366500 

j 

8.5 

13 

I 

| 

73200 

EU target and comments:  The initial target was  stabilisation  at less than  2 tC  (7.3 tC02) per  capita per year 
by  2000.  This  is  equivalent  to  a  13% increase relative  to  1990 levels, i.e. projected  59.29  million  population 
in 20Ô0.  Although  this  general  commitment  is  still  valid, the  French  have declared  that  it  should  no  longer 
be considered  as  a specific  target  for  the year  2000.  Instead  there  is  a commitment  to the  introduction  of 
measures which  should  be coordinated  and  designed  relative to  a common  reference  of marginal  cost  of 
emission  abatement.  France  suggests  that  this  approach  should  be taken  within  the  EU  as  a whole  in  order to 
"share" the  current  stabilisation  target,  and  at the  international  level  in the context  of the  Berlin  Mandate. 
This  target  is  difficult  to  express  in numerical  terms. 

Summary of measures:  The  French  Communication  recalls  that  energy  policy  in  France  since  the  first  oil 
shock  has  already  made  it possible  to  significantly  reduce  C02  emissions  (more  on  a per capita  basis 
between  1980-1990  than  most  other  EU  countries).  Bearing  this  in  mind,  the French  communication 
underlines  the  importance  of  achieving  comparable  cost  of measures  (per tonne  of carbon  emissions  avoided) 
across  the  Member  States. 

Emphasis  on  energy  conservation  and  fuel  switching.  Measures  include:  demand-side  management  to 
reduce peak  demand  generally  met  by  fossil-fuel  generation;  tax  benefits  for  industry  energy  efficiency 
improvements;  road  tariff  increases;  subsidies  for  rail  transport.  Measures  to enhance  sinks  include 
afforestation,  land-use  change  (CAP  reform)  and  promotion  of wood  in  construction. 

Quantified measures:  No  link  between  quantification  of measures  and  projection.  The information  given  in 
the National  Communication  is not  sufficient  to  derive  a quantitative  estimation  of the global  effect  of  the 
set of measures. 

Categorisation of  measures: The  state  of  implementation  of measures  remains  an uncertainty  as the  effort 
made  by  France  is  linked  to the marginal  effort  (expressed  in  ECU/t  of equivalent  carbon)  accepted  by  other 
Member  States. 

It would  seem  that  the  expected  impact  is  largely  expected  after  2000. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000 relative to target<2):  According  to the  'with measures  scenario',  emissions 
are expected  to  increase  by  7% in  2000  over  1990 levels.  It  is very  hard  to  assess  the uncertainty  pertaining 
to  this  projection  since  it  is not  clear which  measures  should  contribute  to  the expected  emission  reductions. 
The  assumption  made  is that  voluntary  energy  saving  measures  such  as those  described  in  the 
communication,  are undertaken.  The  uncertainty  is  increased  by  the fact  that  the  assumptions  made  in  the 
trajectory  about  GDP  growth  rates  seem  low  while  the  assumptions  about  fuel  prices  seem  high,  thus 
yielding  lower  emission  projections  for  2000  (see comparison  with  modified  trajectory  in Table  A2  or the 
box  above). 

"'  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

(2) The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

3>T 

GERMANY 

1990  Emissions 
(6gC02) 

1013000 

Member State 
Trajectory( 1) 
Modified  Trajectory 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on 
I  C02 inventory  baseline  (%)  j 

j  Effect  of  Measures 

(GgC02) 

\ 

-13 

-10 

144330 

Target/Objective and  Comments:  25% reduction  compared  to  1990  levels by  2005.  Germany  has yet  to  set 
a  target  for  the  year  2000.  The  measures  described  in the  German  Communication  are  intended  to  have  an 
impact  by  2005.  However,  they  can  be expected  to have  an  effect  on  emissions  already  by the  year  2000 
(possibly  contributing  to  a  C02  emission  reduction  in  order  of  magnitude  of  13-15% as was  mentioned  by 
the  German  delegate  at the  fifth  Monitoring  Committee  meeting  on  18 May,  1995  and  reported  in the  August 
1995 update  report  to the  Commission),  although  the  full  effect  of measures  tend  to  be achieved  in the  final 
implementation  stages  rather  than  pro  rata  throughout  the  implementation  period. 

Summary  of Measures:  A  very  broad  range  of measures  targeting  all  sectors.  Some of the  main  measures 
implemented  now  are  : 

-  Federal  government  /  lander district  heating  modernisation  programme  for  the  new  Bundeslânder 
-  Act  on the  sale  of electricity  to the  GRID 
-  Support  for  local  and  regional  climate  protection  concepts 
-  Funding  for  the  use  of renewable  energies 
-  Tax breaks  for  cogeneration  under  the  mineral-oil  tax  act 
-  Increase  of the  mineral-oil  tax 
-  Emissions-oriented  motor-vehicle  :  tax 
-  Federal  traffic  infrastructure  plan 
-  Railway  structural  reform 

Measures to  enhance  sinks  include  afforestation  and  forest  conservation. 

Quantified measures:  No  measures  have  been  quantified. 

Categorisation of  Measures:  115  measures  listed,  92  of which  have  been  or  are  under  implementation.  21 
measures  are  planned  and  await  adoption. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000  relative to target(2):  Given  that  Germany  has  not  provided  a trajectory  or  a 
quantification  of measures,  it  is difficult  to  assess  where  emissions  could  be  in  2000.  In the  Monitoring 
Mechanism  Committee  Germany  announced  it expected  to  reduce  emissions  by  13-15%  by  2000  compared 
to  1990  levels  (3).  It  is  not  clear  which  measures  need  to  be  implemented  to achieve  this  emission  reduction 
or what the  current  level  and  effort  of  implementation  is.  Given  that  Germany  is a key  contributor  to  C02 
emissions  in  the  Community,  this  uncertainty regarding  the  effect  of  measures  and  the  level  of  emissions  in 
2000, has  a  significant  influence  on  the  level  of  uncertainty  of  the  assessment  of progress towards  the 
Community  C02  target. 

Germany  has  stated  that  it  will  have  difficulties  reaching  the  national  target  (-25%  by 2005  compared  to 
1990  levels)  unless  a  C02/energy  tax  is  introduced  at the  Community  level.  In  this report  the  assumption 
has been  made that  the  13%  reduction  does  not take  account  of  a C02/energy  tax.. 

m  Adjusted to be consistent with the same 1990 basel i ne, the C02 inventory for the EU-15. 
<2) The discussion is based on Member State trajectories, not appl ied to the inventory for the EU-15. Therefore there may be 
small discrepancies between the figures mentioned in the text and the figures provided in the box under Member State 
Trajectory above. 
(3> Monitoring Mechanism Committee meeting, May 1995. 

GREECE 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C 02 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

I  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
j 

! 

j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (I) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

86100 

j 

j 

14.3 

19 

! 

I 

9590 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Greece has no  official  target.  In the national  communication  it has  set  the 
'realistic objective'  to restrict  the total  increase  in  C02  emissions  between  1990  and  2000 to  15% (with  a 
margin  of  error  of +/-3%). 

Summary  of  measures:  The  C02  strategy  is mainly  composed  of  an energy  conservation  policy  covering  all 
sectors  and promotion  of natural  gas  and renewable  energy  sources.  In the domestic  sector  energy 
conservation  measures  include  energy  efficient  building/equipment  design, new  lighting  technologies  and 
boiler  maintenance.  In  industry  the  conservation  measures  include  improvement  in  auxiliary  operations  and 
production  modernisation.  Measures  in the transport  sector  include promotion  of  alternative  fuels,  improved 
vehicle  maintenance,  traffic  management  and  development  of public  transport.  No  measures  regarding  the 
enhancement  of  sinks  (only  in  conceptual  phase). 

Quantified Measures: 

!  Introduction  of  natural  gas  in  electricity  generation. 

j  Introduction  of  natural  gas  in  industry. 

[  4.2  Mt  COz 

j  0.7  Mt  C 02 

j  Introduction  of  natural  gas  in  residential-commercial-service 

j  l . l M t C 02 

l l. 

j  2. 

j  3. 

j 

j  sector. 

!  4. 

j  Promotion  of  CHP. 

j  5. 

j  6. 

;  Improvement  in  lignite-fired  power  stations. 

!  Promotion  of  wind  farms. 

!  7. 

I  Promotion  of  solar  energy  applications. 

j  8. 

j  9. 

j  Promotion  of  biomass  utilisation. 

;  Promotion  of  small  hydroelectric  works. 

j  10. 

j  Promotion  of  geothermal  energy  utilisation. 

!  11. 

!  Renewable  energy  pilot  projects. 

I 

j  0.2  Mt  C O, 

j  0.3  Mt  C 02 

j  1 . 0 M t C O2 

j  1.0  Mt  C 02 

j  0.9  Mt  C 02 

j  0.2  Mt  C 02 

j  0.06  Mt  C 02 

j  0 . 1 M t C O2 

j  12. 

j  Energy  efficient  building/equipment  design  for  household  and 

j  0.0  Mt  C 02 

j 

j  tertiary  sector. 

I 

!  13. 

I  New  lighting  technologies  for  household  and  tertiary  sector. 

j  0.7  Mt  C 02 

!  14. 

|  Boiler  maintenance  in  household  and  tertiary  sector. 

!  15. 

I  Improvement  in  auxiliary  operations  in  industry. 

j  16. 

I  Production  modernisation  in  industry. 

i  17. 

I  Promotion  of  alternative  fuels  in  transport. 

\  0.4  Mt  C 02 

;  0.5  Mt  C 02 

j  0.8  Mt  C 02 

j  0.05  Mt  C 02 

j  18. 

j  Improved  maintenance  of  vehicles  and  use  of  more  energy 

j  0.3  Mt  COz 

| 

!  efficient  vehicles. 

!  19. 

|  Rational  management  of  transport  system. 

|  20. 
|  TOTAL  13.4  Mt  COz 

j  Up-grading  and  modernisation  of  public  transport. 

! 

j  0.45  Mt  C 02 

j  0.4  Mt  C 02 

( ,)  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

j 

; 

I 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

! 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

j 

J 
j 

Categorisation of Measures:  The plan focuses  on measures which have already been  adopted 
by  the  Government. 

Projected C02 Emissions in 2000 Relative to Target/Objective1: In the most realistic scenario, 
Greece  estimates  that  it  will  increase  its  emissions  by  15  %  ,+/-  3%  by  the  year  2000 
compared  to  1990  levels  if  the  measures  quantified  above  are  introduced.  The  underlying 
assumption  is that  the measures  in  the power  generation  sector  has  a  100% impact  but  that 
the  penetration  of  natural  gas  and  other  measures  only  have  a  75%  and  67%  impact 
respectively. 

In  a worst  case scenario, emissions could  increase by  18% in  2000 compared to  1990 levels. 
This  could  happen  if  there  is  a  major  failure  on  the  part  of  administration  particularly 
regarding  the  funding  of  the  implementation  of  measures,  if  the  funds  have  not  been 
distributed  as they  should or if they  have been misused.  Other problems that  could  arise are 
delays  in  the  construction  of  natural  gas power  plants  or  drastic  changes  in the  demand  for 
energy  e.g.  through  the  spreading  of  air-conditioning  to  the  whole  domestic  sector. 

In a best case scenario, the increase in emissions could be limited to  12%.  This could happen 
if the power generation  sector accelerates the introduction  of new technologies in the lignite-
fuelled  stations,  if  the  penetration  of  natural  gas  was  100% successful  by  2000, if  gas-fired 
stations are used to meet base load, if a target is set to achieve maximum possible substitution 
to  natural  gas  in  the  household  and  tertiary  sector,  if  availability  of  private  funding  for  the 
promotion  of  renewables  is larger than  expected, if the energy  efficient  technology  available 
on the market penetrated the household and tertiary  sector, if energy  efficiency  standards and 
labelling  are  introduced,  and  if  public  funding  is  made  available  for  investment  in  core 
infrastructure. 

While models show that the effect  of a C02 tax of between  $3-$10/bbl, would have a limited  effect 
on the  level  of  C02  emissions, such  a tax  could  increase  the availability  of public  funding  for  the 
financing  of technological interventions.  That would secure the outcome of the most likely scenario, 
namely  a  15% emission  increase, and  improve the chances  of  achieving  the  best  case  scenario, an 
increase of only 12%. 

1 The discussion is based on Member State trajectories, not 
applied to the inventory for the EU-15.  Therefore there may be 
small discrepancies between the figures mentioned in the text and 
the  figures provided  in the box under Member State Trajectory 
above. 

i~\ 

IRELAND 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  !  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

| 

j 

30720 

j 

I 

20.5 

25 

j 

j 

1390 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Ireland  has no official  target  but  an objective  of  limiting  the  increase  in 
emissions  to  20% above  1990 levels by 2000. 

Summary  of  measures:  Emphasis  on  energy  conservation  plus government  action  on fuel  switching. 
Measures  include  combined  heat  and power projects, promotion  of  alternative  energy  sources, construction 
of efficient  peat-fired  power  plant, establishment  of  an energy  centre to coordinate  the energy  conservation 
programme,  information  campaigns  for  energy  conservation,  improved  insulation  in buildings,  development 
of public  transport  in urban  centres.  Industry  will  contribute  to reducing  C02  emissions  through  voluntary 
agreements.  Measures  aimed  at enhancing  sinks  include  afforestation  and  reafforestation. 

Quantified Measures: 

\  Demand-side  management  in  domestic, tertiary  and  industrial 
I  sector. 

j  0.27  Mt  C02 
j 

!  TOTAL  0.27  Mt CO, 

Categorisation of Measures:  Most measures  described  in the plan  are under  implementation,  including  those 
aimed  at enhancing  sinks. 

Projected C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (2>: Ireland  estimates  that by  implementing 
the measures  described  in the plan, it  can  limit  the  increase  in  C02  emissions  to  20% over  1990  levels.  This 
assessment  does  not take  account  of the potential  introduction  of  a combined  C02/energy  tax. 

Ireland  was  the  fastest  growing  economy  in  the  OECD  area in  1994  (3) and  the  ability  to  meet  the 20% 
objective  and  maintain  emissions  at that  level  is more  linked  to  the future  level  of economic  growth  than  to 
the  implementation  of the measures  in the  C02  strategy. 

(,)  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

<2) The  discussion  is based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

m  OECD  Economic  Outlook  (57),  June  1995. 

ITALY 

; 

j 

|  Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

I  Modified  Trajectory 

! 

j 

j 

j 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgCOj) 

j 

436300 

} 

I 

j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

2.9 

6 

j 

] 

j 

54370 

! 

j 

! 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Stabilisation  at  1990 levels  by 2000. 

Summary  of  measures:  Broad  range  of measures  including  decommissioning  of oil-fired  electricity  plant 
and  establishment  of gas-fired  generation;  new  investment  in  renewables;  traffic  limitation  measures; 
encouragement  of public  transport;  new  energy  efficiency  standards  for  the household  sector;  voluntary 
agreements  with  industry  for  environmental  quality  improvements.  The measures  aimed  at enhancing  sinks 
focus  on  reforestation,  forest  management  and promotion  of forest  and  brushwood  products. 

Quantified measures:  No  quantified  measures. 

Categorisation of  measures:  Measures  divided  into those which  are  already  adopted  and  additional 
initiatives  to  limit  C02  emissions.  The former  category  includes  measures  for  the power generation  sector 
(NEP  1988)  and  measures  for  co-generation  and  auto-production,  which  were  adopted  independently  of  the 
C02  limitation  strategy.  The  latter  category  includes  measures  for  the residential/commercial  and  transport 
sector  and  for  industry. 

Projected C02  emissions  in 2000 relative to target(2>:  Italy  does  not  expect  to  stabilise  emissions  in  2000 
(overshoot  of  1-5%).  It  is not  clear which  measures  are in  included  in this  trajectory  or what  the  stage of 
implementation  is  of the measures  described  in the  C02  strategy.  In  spite  of this  uncertainty,  the  calculated 
effect  of  measures  is very  high.  Based  on the  imprecise  information  in  the national  communication,  it  is 
difficult  to  understand  how  Italy  plans  to  achieve  even  its projected  emission  level.  Italy  has  stated  that 
stabilisation  can  only  be  achieved  if  a C02/energy  tax  is introduced  at  Community  level. 

Considering  that  Italy  is  one  of the main  contributors  to  Community  C02  emissions, this  uncertainty 
regarding  its  emissions  in  2000  has  an  important  influence  on  the  assessment  of progress  towards  the 
Community  target. 

'  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990 baseline, the  C02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

»  The  discussion  is based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
lentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

2°l 

LUXEMBOURG 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02 
inventory  baseline  (%) 

Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02)  I 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

13300 

Modified  Trajectory 

-24.1 

-20 

7820 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Stabilisation  by  the year  2000  at  1990 levels. 

Summary  of  measures:  The plan  focuses  on  the power generation  sector  and  the transport  sector.  Some 
measures  include  feasibility  studies  on  the use of gas vapour turbines, pilot  project  with  gas  turbine  and 
hydro  power,  introduction  of  cogeneration  in  buildings  and  investigation  of  other uses  of  cogeneration, 
investigation  of potential  for  renewable  energy  sources, promotion  of public  transport,  development  of 
intermodal  freight  transport,  promotion  of rail  transport  and  internal  waterways, investigation  of vehicle  tax 
based  on  energy  consumption.  Luxembourg  is  also considering  to  introduce  a C02  tax.  No  measures  to 
enhance  sinks. 

Quantified Measures:  None. 

Categorisation of Measures:  Measures  which  fall  in the category  under  implementation  include for  the most 
part  the  legislative  framework  for  environmental  policy  and  certain  subsidies  for  energy  efficiency  measures 
in the domestic  sector.  The majority  of the measures  are planned,  including  measures  for  the  power 
generation  sector  and  the transport  sector.  Some  are even  on  a conceptual  stage.  The most  important 
'measure' is the restructuring  of the  steel  industry  which  will  make the principal  contribution  to reducing  C02 
emissions  but  which  is  being  undertaken  for  other policy  reasons  than  climate  change. 

Projected C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective  <2): Luxembourg  expects  C02  emissions  to 
fall  by  33% by  2000  compared  to  1990 levels.  The bulk  of the reduction  comes  from  the restructuring  of 
the  steel  industry,  where  electric  steel  works  will  replace  old  steel works.  This  restructuring  has  already 
been  initiated  and  is well  under  way.  The construction  of  a gas-vapour  turbine  for  residential  heating  is 
planned.  There  is no reason  to believe  that  the  33% reduction  will  not  be  achieved  in  2000. 

(1)  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990 baseline,  the  C02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

(2)  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

NETHERLANDS 

1990 Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
! 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

] 

J 

151800 

j 

j 

-0.4 

10 

j 

j 

9900 

Target/Objective and  Comments:  Temperature  corrected  target  is reduction  of  3% 

. 

1990 was an  unusually  warm  year  so emissions from  space heating  were  lower  than  in  a normal  year.  The 
Dutch  inventory  for  1990 on which  the target  is based has been  adjusted  using  degree-day  statistics to 
produce  a  1990 total  which  is 3.8%' higher  than  actual  emissions.  This means that  the Dutch  target,  a  3% 
reduction  from  1990 temperature  corrected  levels, is equivalent  to a 0.7%  increase over  unadjusted 
emissions.  Since the  Community  inventory  for  1990 is not temperature  corrected,  it  is more  appropriate  to 
refer  to the  non-temperature  corrected  target  which  is generally  accepted  to  be a  "return  to  target". 

Summary  of  measures:  Focus on energy  conservation  and  energy  efficiency  improvements  using  voluntary 
agreements  in  the  industrial,  agricultural  and  public  sectors.  The plan  includes the  following  measures: 
investment  in  cogeneration  and  subsidies for  renewable  energy;  voluntary  agreements  for  energy 
conservation  in  industry,  public  and  agricultural  sectors;  energy  conservation  programme  for  SMEs;  energy 
efficiency  standards  and  regulations  for  households and  buildings;  demand-side  management  based  on 
subsidies and  information.  Fuel  taxes have been  introduced  and  the rate  is determined  on  the  basis  for 
energy  and  carbon  content.  A  legislative  proposal  is being  considered  to  increase the  C02  rate  for  small 
consumers,  but  it  is considered  that  unless there  is progress  on  an  EU tax, the  rate  for  large  consumers  must 
remain  unchanged.  Measures in transport  sector taken  for  other  reasons than  climate  change  but  include 
vehicle related  measures to  improve  energy  efficiency,  limiting  growth  of  mobility  by  using  economic 
instruments,  encouraging  modal  shift  through  a comprehensive  investment  programme  in  infrastructure, 
promotion  of  intermodal  freight  transport.  Measures to  enhance  sinks  include  afforestation  and  land-use 
change  under  CAP. 

Quantified  Measures: 

!  TOTAL 9900 Gg 

j 

Categorisation  of Measures:  The measures described  above have  been  approved  by Parliament  and 
necessary  funds  for  the  implementation  of the measures have  been  set aside  in the  annual  budget.  Some 
important  measures  are  already  under  implementation,  primarily  the voluntary  agreements  for  industry  and 
agriculture.  In  industry  20  agreements  and  9 declarations  of  intent  are  in place,  covering  75% of  industrial 
energy  use.  In  agriculture,  the  agreement  with  glasshouse horticulture  covers  85% of  agricultural  energy 
use. 

However,  the  measures  in the transport  sector have  been  implemented  for  other  reasons than  climate  change. 
Although  there  is a commitment  to  implement  the transport  measures  before  2000, there  is no  defined  time 
frame  for  the  implementation. 

Measures under  consideration  include the  introduction  of  a regulatory  tax  on  energy.  Other  measures  under 
consideration  include  efficiency  requirements  for  electric  appliances  and  efficiency  requirements  for 
passenger  cars, both  at Community  level. 

Projected  C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (2):  If  the  above  mentioned  measures  are 
implemented,  then  the Netherlands  could  stabilise emissions at  1990  levels by  2000,  based  on  unadjusted 
figures  which  is the  equivalent  of just  over  a 3% reduction  in  emissions using temperature  adjusted  figures. 
The contribution  of the transport  sector to this reduction  is assumed to be zero,  so the  uncertainty  related  to 
the  implementation  of the  measures  in that  sector  does  not  influence  projected  emission  levels  in 2000. 

(1) Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C02  inventory  for  the EU-15. 

m  The  discussion  is based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

PORTUGAL 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
! 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

! 

Member  State  Trajectory  (l) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

42500 

j 

j 

36 

36 

| 

[ 

7030 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Portugal  has no  official  target  but  an  'objective' to  limit  the  increase  in 
C02  emissions  to  40% over  1990 levels. 

Summary  of  measures:  The plan  presents  a broad  range of measures, for  all  sectors.  The measures  include 
the  introduction  of natural  gas, CHP, improved  efficiency  in power generation,  energy  conservation  in  end-
use, subsidies  and  information  campaigns  for  energy  efficiency  improvements  in  industry, promotion  of rail 
transport,  modernisation  of  road  infrastructure,  traffic  management.  Measures  to enhance  sinks  include 
forest  maintenance,  afforestation,  forest  protection. 

Quantified Measures:  None. 

Categorisation of Measures:  Measures  under  implementation  include  those  for  the energy,  industrial  and 
residential  sectors  which  are linked  to programmes  (often  EU programmes)  that have been  in place for  some 
time.  The  stage  of  implementation  of the measures  in the transport  sector  is unclear, but  it would  seem  that 
they  are only  in  the  conceptual  or  at best  in the planned  phase. 

Projected C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (2}:  Assuming  that  all  of the  measures 
included  in  the plan  are implemented,  Portuguese  C02  emissions  are expected  to  increase by 40%. 
However,  it would  seem  that the  implementation  of the measures  in the transport  sector  is uncertain.  Since 
it  is not  clear  to what  extent  the transport  sector  is expected  to  contribute  to  limiting  the  increase  in  C02,  it 
is  difficult  to  assess  the  impact  of this  uncertainty  on the expected  emission  level  in  2000.  However,  as in 
the  other  cohesion  countries, emission  levels  are more  linked  to  economic  growth  than  to the  implementation 
of the measures  included  in  the  C02  strategy.  The  actual  increase  in  emissions  between  1990  and  1993, 
years  of  low  economic  growth,  indicates  that  a lower  increase  than  40% could  be  achieved  in  2000. 

>  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

1  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 

îentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

H-2-

SPAIN 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02 
! 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 

Member  State  Trajectory  (I) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

227300 

! 

j 

20.8 

23 

59470 

Target/Objective and Comments: Spain  had  initially  forecasted  a limited  increase  in  emissions  of  25% over 
1990 levels  by  2000. This  limited  increase  has been  revised  downwards  to  a band  of  11-13%  (2) 

Summary of measures:  Measures  focus  on  energy  conservation  and  fuel  switching.  The  conservation 
measures  are mainly  geared  towards  industry  (burners, furnaces,  more  efficient  technology),  transport 
(technical  and  management  measures), and residential/commercial  sector  (technical  regulations,  user 
awareness).  Fuel  switching  measures  include promotion  of natural  gas  in  industry  (e.g. in  cement  and  steel 
production  as well  as  in  combustion  equipment),  and  in the residential  sector  (for  space heating), as well  as 
promotion  of renewable  energy  (e.g. hydro  and wind  power)  and  CHP.  Other measures  include 
subsidisation  of public  transport,  investment  in rail  infrastructure,  and  tax  exemptions  for  gas  oil  used  in  rail 
transport.  Measures  to  enhance  sinks  include  afforestation,  forest  management,  protection  against  forest 
fires, damage  monitoring. 

Quantified Measures:  None. 

Categorisation of Measures:  The  energy  related  measures  are  included  in  the  Spanish  National  Energy  Plan 
which  runs  from  1991-2000.  Implementation  of those measures  has thus  begun.  The  measures  specified  in 
the  transport  sector  have been  implemented.  The measures  to enhance  sinks  are under  implementation. 

Projected C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (3):  It is  estimated  that  Spain  will  meet  its 
objective  for  2000, 25% increase  over  1990  levels  (4).  As  in the  other cohesion  countries, emission  levels 
are more  linked  to  economic  growth  than  to the  implementation  of measures  in  the plan.  Considering  the 
low  economic  growth  between  1990  and  1993  and  depending  on  the  level  of  economic  growth  in  the 
coming  years, it  may  even  do  somewhat  better  than  limiting  the  emission  increase  to 25%. 

>  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  C 02  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

'  Monitoring  Mechanism  Committee  meeting,  May  18,  1995. 

'  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 

îentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

>  This  objective  has  subsequently  been  revised  downwards  to  a  band  of  11-13%.  However,  in  the  trajectories  on  this  report,  the  figure  2 5%  has  been  used. 

M3 

SWEDEN 

1990 Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C02  j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (,) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

61300 

j 

j 

4.4 

6 

] 

j 

10200 

Target/Objective and  Comments:  Stabilisation  at  1990 levels by 2000. 

Summary  of  measures:  The focus  of the  C02  strategy  is to  switch  from  fossil  fuels  to  renewable  energy 
sources,  improving  energy  management  and  more  efficient  use of  energy.  Measures to  improve  energy 
efficiency  include technology  procurement  and  demonstration  of electricity  efficient  products,  processes and 
systems in homes, non-housing  premises and  industry.  Economic  instruments play  an  important  role  in the 
strategy,  e.g.  C02  and  energy  taxes which  have  a cross-sectoral  effect.  Fuel  taxation  and  R&D  (alternative 
fuels  and  energy  efficient  vehicles)  are the only  measures that  have  been  taken  in the transport  sector.  In  the 
forestry  sector,  measures  include  forest  maintenance/management,  and  promotion  of  long-lived  wood 
products. 

Quantified  Measures: 

i l. 

j  2. 

j  3. 

j  4. 

j  Carbon  taxes  -  energy  sector. 

j  Gasoline  tax  and  carbon  tax  -  transport  sector. 

;  Efficiency  programme. 

j  Investment  programme  -  biofuels. 

|  5. 

|  Others. 

Ï  TOTAL  10.4  MtCO, 

j  5.3  MtCOz 

I  2.2  MtC02 

j  2.1  MtC02 

j  0.6  MtC02 

j 

j 

j 

i 

L . ? ; iM£ ° iI 

Categorisation  of  Measures:  Majority  of  measures  are  under  implementation. 

Projected  C02  Emissions  in  2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (2): With  present  measures to  combat  climate 
change, total  emissions of  carbon  dioxide  are  projected  to  increase  slightly  (eg  4 per  cent)  above  1990  levels 
in the year  2000.  This projection  is based  on  unadjusted  data  (non  temperature  corrected).  If  temperature 
adjustment  is made  for  emissions  in  1990 (3%)  then  stabilisation  is achieved  in  2000.  This projection  does 
not take  account  of  energy  and  carbon  tax  increases which  occurred  in  1994.  Considering  that the  majority 
of  measures  are  in  place,  including  a C02/energy  tax, there  is no  reason  to  believe that  Sweden  cannot  meet 
this  projection. 

However,  the  forecast  assumes that  the  phase-out  of nuclear  power  is not  initiated  before  2000.  Even  if  it  is 
not  begun  immediately,  it will  be difficult  to  avoid  meeting  the  increasing  eneergy  demand  with  fossil  fuels. 
However,  there  is a large  potential  to  increase  biofuels  in  Sweden,  especially  in combined  heat  and  power 
stations and  for  heating  purposes  (3).  Once the  nuclear  phase-out  is begun,  CO, emissions from  power 
generation  will  increase  substantially.  A  final  decision  on  the  nuclear  phase  out  has yet  to  be taken. 

">  This objective  has  subsequently  been  revised  downwards  to  a  band  of  11-13%.  However,  in  the  trajectories  of  this  report,  the  figure  25% has  been  used 

<2)  The  discussion  is based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

1,1  According  to  the  Act  on  Management  on  Natural  Resources  the  remaining  major  rivers  are  protected  to  hydro  power  exploitation 

UNITED  KINGDOM 

1990  Emissions  (GgC02) 

j  Trajectory  1990/2000  on  C 02 
j 

inventory  baseline  (%) 

j  Effect  of  Measures  (GgC02) 
j 

Member  State  Trajectory  (1) 

Modified  Trajectory 

j 

j 

577000 

j 

j 

-6.1 

-2 

j 

I 

71740 

Target/Objective and Comments:  Stabilisation  at  1990  levels  in  2000. 

Summary  of  measures:  Fuel  switching  and  energy  efficiency  using  economic  instruments, regulations  and 
information/education  including:  increased  electricity  generation  from  gas, CHP  and  renewables; 
establishment  of the  Energy  Savings  Trust  to  promote  energy  efficiency  and  conservation;  increase  in  road 
fuel  duties;  introduction  of VAT  on  domestic  fuel  and power;  eco-labelling  and  energy  labelling;  revision 
of building  standards. 

Quantified Measures  (2). 

j  1. 
j 
; 
I 

I  2. 
j 
j 
j 
j 

I  3. 
j 

I  4. 
! 

j  Energy  conservation  in  the  home  (VAT  on  domestic  fuel  use, 
|  new  Energy  Saving  Trust,  energy  efficiency  advice/information, 
j  eco-labelling,  EC  SAVE  programme,  revision  of  Building 
j  Regulations  to  strengthen  energy  efficiency  requirements). 

;  14664  G g C 02 
j 
j 
j 

j  Energy  consumption  by  business  (energy  efficiency 
j  advice/information,  Energy  Saving  Trust  schemes  for  small 
j  businesses,  Energy  Design  Advice  Scheme,  EC  SAVE 
j  programme,  revision  of  Building  Regulations  to  strengthen 
j  energy  efficiency  requirements). 

;  9165  G g C 02 
j 
j 
j 
j 

j  Energy  consumption  in  public  sector  (targets  for  central  and 
i  local  government  and  public  sector  bodies). 

j  3666  G g C 02 
I 

j  Transport  (increases  in  road  fuel  duties  and  commitment  to  real 
I  increases  of  at  least  5%  on  average  in  future  budgets). 

j  9165  G g C 02 
j 

j 
j 
j 
j 

j 
; 
; 
j 
j 

j 
j 

j 
! 

|  TOTAL  36,660  GgCO? 

Categorisation of Measures:  Most  of  the measures  in  place.  However, many  measures  are voluntary  or 
dependent  on  uncertain  funding. 

Projected C02  Emissions  in 2000 Relative  to  Target/Objective (3): The  UK  expects  emission  reductions  as a 
result  of the  establishmentof  an  Energy  Saving  Trust.  Due to  changes  in  the  anticipated  level  of  funding,  the 
contribution  is  now  expected  to  be  lower  (at  a minimum  of  0.3  MtC, aquivalent  to  1.1  MtC02)  than 
originally  estimated  - although  further  schemes  are being  developed  by  the  Trust  which  will  contribute 
further  savings.  However,  even  taking  into  account  the  reduced  contribution  from  the  Energy  Saving  Trust, 
UK  C02  emissions  are now  expected  to be  below  1990  levels, more  as  a result  of  fuel  switching  than  of 
energy  conservation. 

0>  Adjusted  to  be  consistent  with  the  same  1990  baseline,  the  COz  inventory  for  the  EU-15. 

(2)  The  re-assessment  of  the  contribution  to  be  made  by  the  Energy  Saving  Trust  is  not  reflected  in  the  table  which  is  taken  from  the  National  Programme. 

(3)  The  discussion  is  based  on  Member  State  trajectories,  not  applied  to  the  inventory  for  the  EU-15.  Therefore  there  may  be  small  discrepancies  between  the  figures 
mentioned  in  the  text  and  the  figures  provided  in  the  box  under  Member  State  Trajectory  above. 

4-£ 

ISSN  0254-1475 

C0M(96) 91  final 

DOCUMENTS 

EN 

14 

Catalogue number  :  CB-CO-96-096-EN-C 

ISBN 92-78-01226-2 

Office for Official Publications of the European Communities 

L-2985 Luxembourg