DRAFT COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE COMMUNITY
Date: 1988-11-16
Institutions: European Commission
Subjects: climate change, energy policy, environmental cooperation, greenhouse effect, greenhouse gas, pollution control measures

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION

COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"

COM (88) 656

Vol. 1988/0219

Disclaimer

Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 concernant
l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique européenne et de
la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, p. 1) modifié en dernier
lieu par le règlement (UE) 2015/496 du Conseil du 17 mars 2015 (JO L79 du 25. 3.2015, p. 1), ce
dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents classifiés présents dans ce dossier
ont été déclassifiés conformément à l'article 5 dudit règlement ou sont considérés déclassifiés
conformément aux articles 26(3) et 59(2) de la décision (UE, Euratom) 2015/444 de la
Commission du 13 mars 2015 concernant les règles de sécurité aux fins de la protection des
informations classifiées de l'Union européenne.

In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning
the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic Community and the
European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as last amended by Council
Regulation (EU) 2015/496 of 17 March 2015 (OJ L 79, 27.3.2015, p. 1), this file is open to the
public. Where necessary, classified documents in this file have been declassified in conformity
with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation or are considered declassified in conformity with
Articles (26.3) and 59(2) of the Commission Decision (EU, Euratom) 2015/444 of 13 March 2015
on the security rules for protecting EU classified information.

In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar
1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und
der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S. 1), zuletzt geändert durch die
Verordnung (EU) Nr. 2015/496 vom 17. März 2015 (ABI. L 79 vom 25.3.2015, S. 1), ist dieser Akt
der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in diesem Akt in
Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5 der genannten Verordnung freigegeben; beziehungsweise werden
sie auf Grundlage von Artikel 26(3) und 59(2) der Entscheidung der Kommission (EU, Euratom)
2015/444 vom 13. März 2015 über die Sicherheitsvorschriften für den Schutz von EU-
Verschlusssachen als herabgestuft angesehen.

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

COM(88 ) 656 final

Brussels , 16 November 1988

COMMUNICATION TO THE COUNCIL

" The Greenhouse Effect and the

Community "

Commission work programme concerning the evaluation of
policy options to deal with the "greenhouse effect "

and

draft

COUNCIL RESOLUTION

on the greenhouse effect and the Community

( presented by the Commission )

f f–^7
1 pi
i IS3

? rs

4 3

§9

Draft Communication from the Commission to the Council

"THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE

AND THE COHNUNITY"

- 2 -

CONTENTS

Paragraph

Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A~C

4-11

I.

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE

What the greenhouse effect is in short

1-2

12 - 13

Greenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric

3-10

13- 20

concentration trends

Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse 11-13

20-27

gases concentrations

Potential impacts of climate changes

14-21

27-32

II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES

Introduction

The world conference on " The Changing Atmosphere "
( Toronto , 27-30 June 1988 )

22

23

32- 33

33- 38

Future possible developments

24-28

38-40

III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTION

Introduction

Research

activities

Préventive action

29-31

40-41

32-36

42-44

37-42

44-48

- 3 -

Paragraph Page

Planned adaptation

43-45

48- 49

Cooperation with developing countries

46

49- 50

IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION

47-58

51-54

ANNEX

The " Villach " Conférence

( Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 )

The EEC Symposium on " CC^ and other greenhouse gases"
( Brussels , 3-5 November 1986 )

The workshops on " Developing policies for responding
to climatic change " ( Villach - Austria , 28 September-
2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy ,

<

9-13 November 1987 )

The Brundtland Commission's report

The European Parliament resolution

A

B

C

D

E

56

57

58-60 •

61

61

- 4 -

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A.

SUMMARY

A.1 .

Introduction

On 19 July 1988 the Commission has decided to create an interservice
group to elaborate by mid-November 1988 preliminary ideas on
possible Community action in respect of the " Greenhouse issue ".

The aim of this document , based on the work of the above mentioned

group , is to give an overview of such issue and to present
conclusions and recommendations about further work to be immediately
started , action to be urgently undertaken and on the possible role
of the European Community in the international debate on this

complex subject .

A. 2 .

The greenhouse issue

A. 2.1 .

The present climatic conditions on the earth are governed to a large
extent by the composition of the atmosphere .
Water vapour , carbon dioxide ( CC^), methane ( CH^), nitrous oxide
(N^O ) , ozone ( O^) and, since recently, CFC 's , by absorbing part of
the infrared radiation which is emitted by the earth to balance the
incoming solar radiation , store part of the latter in the

atmosphere .

A. 2 . 2 .

Concentrations of all the so called "greenhouse gases "

Man is modifying at an unprecedented rate the composition of the
atmosphere .
are increasing due to interference of human activities with the
biogeochemical cycles of such substances .
modifications is significant in terms of potential climatic changes .

The size of these

We know today that the thermal balance of the earth is being
modified and that some warming and possible associated climate
changes wilt follow depending on the size of such modification .

- 5 -

A. 2 . 3.

The most relevant greenhouse gas is COg whose emissions are mostly
due to fossil fuels burning (5 Gtons of carbon/year *),wood burning
and decomposition of forest biomass linked to deforestation
( 0,5-2 Gtons of carbon /year ).

Another 25% of this effect is due to CFCs used

C02 is presently responsible for slightly more than 50% of the
greenhouse effect .
in a variety of applications such as aerosols , spray cans , air
conditioning , refrigerators , solvents , packaging , etc .
attribuable to methane ( CH^) from livestock, rice paddy fields,
natural gas exploitation , inefficient burning of biomass and coal ,
to nitrous oxide ( NgO) coming from fossil fuels combustion and from
nitrogen fertilizers use and to tropospheric ozone due to
photochemical processes in the polluted atmosphere .
greenhouse gases have been significantly increasing in the last
decades .

Emissions of

The rest is

A. 2 . 4 .

A. 2 . 5 .

Based on the results of global climate models it may be concluded
that the earth will be committed to an increase of the average
surface temperature in the range of 1,5-4,5°C by a doubling of the
At the
pre-industrial equivalent greenhouse gases concentration .
present trends , this is expected to happen before the year 2050 .

Present climatic models are not capable to offer reliable regional
assessment of potential climatic modifications corresponding to the
above mentioned average increase of surface temperature .
Rough evaluations show that over Europe temperature increase could
be larger than the world average .

A. 2.6 .

The indirect impacts of such climatic modifications might be
summarized as follows :
- a sea level rise ( from 30 cm to 1,5 m for a warming in the range

1,5-4,5°C );

- a réduction of sea ice ;
- a réduction of water resources in some régions ;
- modifications in agricultural productivity;
- human health and ecology impacts .

*

1 Gton = 10

O

tons = 1.000 million tons

- 6 -

A. 3 .

The international framework and perspectives

A. 3.1 .

A. 3 . 2 .

A scientific consensus on the basic facts of the greenhouse issue
referred to in previous paragraphs was reached at the " International
Conference on the assessment and the role of CO^ and of other
greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts
( Villach , 9-15 October 1985 ).

Conclusions of the Villach Conference were further developed at an
EEC symposium in Brussels ( 3-5 November 1986) on " CO2 and other
greenhouse gases : climate and associated impacts " and at workshops
in Villach ( 28 September-2 October 1987) and in Bellagio ( 9-13
November 1987 ) on " Developing policies for responding to climatic

change ".

(

A. 3 . 3 .

The greenhouse issue was also considered in the frame of work by the
Following recommendations of that Commission
Brundtland Commission .
a World Conference on "the changing atmosphere , implications for
global security" has been held in Toronto ( 27-30 June 1988 ).
The
following actions i.a . were recommended by that conference :

- Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone

The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly

Layer .
complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
the year 2000 .

- Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of CO2 and other trace

gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .

- Reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal in the industrialized
nations .

- Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly

related to reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gases .

- Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention .
- Establish a World Atmosphère Fund .

A. 3 . 4 .

A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
activities is initiation , already in 1989, of the process for
preparing an agreement on the greenhouse issue, including eventually
protocols on limitations of greenhouse gases emissions .

- 7 -

A. 3 . 5 .

Next essential events on the way to that agreement will probably
be :

- the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa

early in 1989;

- a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1990

by the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;

- the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva, June 1990;
- the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992

which could be the culminating event .

A.4 .

Possible actions

A. 4.1 .

Policies to deal with the greenhouse issue might include preventive
and / or adaptive actions .

A. 4 . 2 .

Preventive action is that aiming at curbing greenhouse gases
emissions in order to reduce expected effects .

In case of C0£, the energy sector in general and forestry in the
tropical regions are the most relevant areas for intervention .

Examples of energy measures which could contribute to curb CC^
emissions are :

- increase energy efficiency (both on the supply and on the demand

side );

- switch to less carbon intensive fuels ;
- promote renewable energy sources and sustainable use of biomass ;
- promote safe nuclear energy .

The promotion of innovative energy technologies to support such
measures seems to be of particular importance .

In the long term new non-carbon based energy systems could give a
significant contribution to curbing CO^ emissions .

- 8 -

Of course not all the above mentioned measures are equally
effective .
viability is required .

Moreover , a careful assessment of their economic

Forestry policies should tend to reverse present deforestation
trends especially in the equatorial regions .
particular require promoting substitutes for wood used massively as
fuel in those regions and promoting sustainable agricultural
practices so that agricultural expansion did not involve large scale
forest burning to clear land .

This would in

A. 4 . 3 .

Possible action to decrease emissions of greenhouse gases such as
CH^ and ^0 is less easy to identify given the uncertainties
surrounding emissions of these substances .

The following subjects could be explored :

- Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural

#

gas .

- Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
- Minimize ^0 emission from fossil
- Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
cultivation and lagoons management, aiming at reducing CH^
release .

fuels burning .

- Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce

^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .

A. 4 . 4 .

In case of CFC 's, the nearly total elimination of CFC 's emissions
should be feasible by the year 2000 by constraining production and
recapturing, recycling or destroying CFC 's in existing products .

A. 4 . 5 .

Adaptation measures ( i.e. thoses required in order to prevent or
decrease damages due to climatic changes and associated impacts )
might be required to deal with effects which , despite preventive
actions, come out to be unavoidable .

At this stage it is not possible to detail adaptation measures which
could be required in the Community because of the lack of a reliable
regional assessment of potential impacts .

- 9 -

In general , adaptation to deal with the sea level rise could include
sea wall / flood barriers , national flood insurance programmes ,
construction of reservoirs ( to combat increased salinity),
abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas, other
relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites , protection of
coastal ecosystems .

More study is needed to identify possible adaptation measures in
other sectors such as agriculture and forestry .

B.

CONCLUSIONS ON THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE ON THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE

8.1 .

The composition of the earth 's atmosphere is being significantly
modified by human activités .

Based on results of global climatic models , scientists agree that a
doubling of the equivalent COg atmospheric concentration will bring
an increase of the average surface temperature in the range
1,5-4,5°C .
of next century .

Such doubling is likely to happen within the first half

According to climatic data the resulting change in average global
climatic conditions will be beyond the range of climates that have
existed during the historical past and during recent geological
times .

B.2 .

The various impacts of such climatic change and their socio-economic
consequences cannot be reliably assessed in detail at present .
However the preliminary works made on this subject show that the
risks are alarmingly high and the likely direct and indirect
consequences potentially disruptive .

B.3 .

Recent international events have introduced a sense of urgency in
the world-wide debate on the issue .
It has come out clearly that
this is the time to work out viable strategies while accelerating

research efforts .

C.

CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION

10 -

C.O.

C.1 .

C.2 .

The main conclusions of this report are summarized here .
presentation is given in Chapter IV of this document .

A complete

The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on
substances that deplete the ozone layer and it should participate
actively in the renegotiation of such Protocol .

The Community should welcome initiation of discussions on the
possibilities of an international agreement for the future
protection of the atmosphere .
important contribution to the preparation and negotiation of such an
agreement which might include the establishment of specific targets
for limiting emissions of greenhose gases as well as definition of
emission reduction measures and programmes .

It should be prepared to give an

C.3 .

Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the
feasibility , costs and likely results of possible measures to limit
greenhouse gases emissions .

The main areas of such programme should be :

- identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies

capable to reduce greenhouse gases emissions ;

- analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
and technologies ;

- structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred irv particular

to possible strategic targets for CO^ emission ceilings .

11

establishing a decision analysis framework ,

identifying and evaluating adaptive policies .

The Community and its Member States should by now take into account
in their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors
relevant to the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes
linked to the greenhouse effect .
could avoid higher costs in future .

Early consideration of such issue

Moreover , the Commission will take action to reinforce and expand
efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency
improvement , development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear
technology .
The accelerated development and promotion of innovative
commercial-scale technologies in these fields should be given high
priority .
There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both
energy and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties
on some scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
efficiency improvements in terms of CO., reductions .

The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
relevent aspects of the greenhouse issue and should provide new
energy technologies having the potential to limit CO^ emissions .

- 12 -

I.

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE

Uhat the "greenhouse effect " is in short

1 .

The climate conditions we experience on earth are due , among other
things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
composition .
Without the atmosphere, the average surface temperature of
the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .

In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space , is largely governed
by the composition of the atmosphere .

Firstly water vapour, mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere, is an
effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
surface temperature of the earth .
Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide (COg), methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorof luorocarbons (CFCs) have the property of
being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
infra-red radiation .

Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
by the earth . ^
The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .

2 .

The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
balance of the earth .

Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .
absorption of infrared radiation from the earth .
contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere .
in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the

Tropospheric ozone

Moreover ozone contributes to the

Any change

thermal balance of the earth .

- 13 -

In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of C02,
CFCs, CH^, N20, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon is usually referred to as the " greenhouse effect "
because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
radiation by the ground , warms the air and is then retained by the glass
from escaping again .

Greenhouse gases ; emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends

3 .

The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times and are still increasing .

4 .

In case of carbon dioxide ( CO^)

:

a .

Emission sources :

of carbon per year ).

Most of anthropogenic C0_ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning ■
( around 5 Gtons
contribution comes from
biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).

Moreover a significant
burning of wood and decomposition of

C02 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
increased in 25 years, since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .

Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to- emission
with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each , followed by gas with
less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .

It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .

*

1 Gton = 10

O

tons = 1000 million tons

- 14 -

The share of CC^ emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :

COj emissions in million tons of carbon/y
and as % of world total

1950 I

1965

I

1980

| Mt / y* I
I
Region
I
I 723
I North America
I
| URSS and Eastern Europe I 291
I
I
23
I China
I
I 379
I Western Europe
I
45
I
| Japan , Australia
I
92
I
( Developing Countries
I
I
63
I Others ( worldwide gas
!
!
Iflaring, bunkers )
I
I
I
I 1618 I
| World total
I
I
I

X

I Mt /y*
44,7 I 1003
750
18,0 I
178
1 / 4 I
643
23,4 I
137
2,8 I
250
5 / 7 I
163
3 / 9 I

100

I 3126

X

X I Mt /y* I

I
32,1 1 1380 1 26,7 I
24,0 1 1251 1 24,2 I
5/ 7 |
439 1 8,5 I
853 1 16,5 I
20/ 6 1
300 1 5,8 I
4/ 4 1
631 1 12,2 I
8/ 0 |
31 0 1 6,0 I
5 / 2 |
I
I
I
I
I
I
!
I

I
I
5 1 70 1 100
I

100

Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle"

US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985

* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .

The figures above show the dramatic increase of
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .

emissions in all

- 15 -

The trends of CO^ world emission from different fossil fuels for the
period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure ,
( source : US OOE / ER-0239
report referred to above )

:

5000 Γ
4000 _

3000 _

1

f»

1

.. 1 .

I

| 2000 _
>
vr'-
^
O
σ»
o 1000 _ ‘

‘

M

800 : J?
600 - /
^

s
•2
U
* 400 f-
O
-
O

y<

Coi»
1.72%' v*,r.

X
. A.–

. . » * ■ –

v^-~r'r*'~

•jr
.X

*<• •/

-

:

200 I-

X

100 i___I_I_I_I

1950

1960

1970

1980

Year

The steep increase of yearly CO2 emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil ,, by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels .
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .

Consequently ZO^

Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various

fossil fuels :

1 1 985 CO2 emissions in |
I Fuel
Imillion tons carbon /yl
I
1
807
!
I gas
I
2189
1
I oi l
I
2181
I
1 coal
I
52
1 gas flaring I
I
5229
I
1 Total
Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988

16 -

Per capita C0£ emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

Country

United States
German Dem . Rep .
Canada
Czechoslovakia
Australia
Soviet Union
Poland
Belgium
Germany , Fed . Rep .
United Kingdom
Netherlands
France
Japan
Italy
Spain
China
Brazil
India
World average

| Per
| of
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I
I
|
|
|
|

capita CO^ emissions (tons
carbon per inhabitant )

4,9
4,9
4,4
4,1
3,9
3,3
3,0
3,0
2,9
2,5
2,5
2,0
1,9
1,5
1,4
0,5
0,3
0,1

1,0

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

Calculated from : Smith, I.M. ( 1988 )
Draft technical review , EIA Coal Research , London, and UN

CC^ and climate change;

:

statistical data

Ь .

Atmospheric concentrations trends :

Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
CO^ has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
The rate of concentration increase for CO^
was around 275-285 ppm .
has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .

1 ppm

= part per million = 0,0001%

- 17 -

C(>2 concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
emissions, mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation, on
the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans .
and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
emissions and this leads to more C02 stored in the atmosphere.

.

5 .

In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's )

:

a .

Emissions sources :

CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
as aerosol spray cans, air conditioning, refrigerators, solvents,
packaging , etc .

b .

Atmospheric concentration trends

The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .

Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is .
by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
higher than that of C02, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than C02 ' on a
molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100

years ).

*

1 ppb = part per billion = 0,0000001%

- 18 -

In case of methane ( CH ,) :

a .

Emission sources :

■ –■ Present man-made emissions of CH^- come mainly from livestock, rice

paddy fields , natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH .
4

cycle is not well known .

Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors )

:

Natural Sources ( million tons per year )

:

Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )

Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)

Lakes

Tundra

Oceans

Termites and other insects

Other

110 (+/- 50 )

4 (+/- 2 )

3 (+/- 2 )

10 (+/- 3 )

25 (+/- 20 )

40 (+/- 40 )

Man-Made Sources ( million tons per year )

:

Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc .) 75 (+/- 35 )
Rice paddies
Biomass burning
Natural gas and mining losses

70 (+/- 30 )

70 (+/- 40 )

50 (+/- 25 )

Solid Waste

30 (+/- 30 )

( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases " -

D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)

- 19 -

b .

Atmospheric concentration trends :

Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983).
over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .

Average yearly increase

7 .

In case of nitrous oxide ( N.,0 )

:

a .

Emission sources :

Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
fuels and biomass .
seem also to give a significant contribution .
Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .

Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )

Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
It is estimated that the overall emissions are
is most difficult .

as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various

authors )

:

Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year )

:

Oceans and estuaries

Natural soils

2.0 (+/- 1.0)

6.5 (+/- 3.5 )

Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year )

:

Fossil

fuel combustion

Biomass burning

Fertilized soils

Cultivated natural soils

4.0 (+/- 1.0 )

0.7 (+/- 0.2 )

0.8 (+/- 0.2 )

1.5 (+/- 0.5 )

( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -

D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)

- 20 -

b .

Atmospheric concentration trends :

^0 atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
The present rate of increase is
290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .
around 0,25% per year .

8 .

9 .

It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
natural cycles .
quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .

Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
those trends .
assumptions .

However scenarios may be developed using different

10 .

It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50

years .

Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations

11 .

The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
and possible associated climate changes .
However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
warming and its timing .
From this point of view , uncertainties about the potential role of
climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
relevant .

It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
proportion : 55% for CC^, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, ^0 and 0^
together .

- 21

The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to ...
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .

The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the

In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
In other studies this

likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios .
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 .
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83) = 13%,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons = 19% .
The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
Environmental costs for nuclear range
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4%, 2000 = 7.1% .
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20/ GJ .
is assigned to renewable energies .

In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ .

No environmental cost

This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .

However the usefulness of such models is to help

22

The results are summarized in next

figure .

Commitment to Future Warming in the WRI Scenario*

) High Emissions

WRi Scénario»
WRi Scénario»
[*
H Base Case
|^| Modest Policies

Slow Build-Up

ilii

„ ,!!.

ilSSlSllIllillfi:
liiiSiBliiiliil

.

2073

'
2073

1

A Stow BuÜd-Up doc* not resch
Slow Build-Up docs not reach double
CO, within the forvcatf period
CO| within iht forvcut period

^ !1‘П-)

”■<5*^^
I п Р I
1
|
2030
I
2023
~|
r
rr ^
I
À2030
I
I
3025
3025
I
А
□ Ам А
À
□ ÀÉÎIU] À
1
À
i À il R] À

2030
2030

I
I

I
I

Approximate year of commitment to wanning
equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above pre¬
industrial temperature.

Approximate year of commitment to wanning
equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above 1960
temperatures.

Source : Mintzer I.M.

( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,

WRI , Washington DC , USA

2 3-

Energy Policies in the WRl Scenarios

Bue Case Scenario
• "Business-As-Usual," the inertial model of growth and

change in the world energy industry

• No policies to slow carbon dioxide omissions
• Minima! stimulus lo improve end-use efficicncy
• Modcjt stimulus forsynfuels devciopment
• Minimal stimulus /or development of solar energy

Related Energy Model Parameter Value

(Rate of change - 0.8% per year)
(Final Price - S3.15-S4.25 per CJ in 2005)
(Final Price • $16.50 per CJ in 2025)

systems

• No policy to limit tropical deforestation or to encourage

reforestation

* Minimal environmenta! costs includcd in priée of energy

($0.30 per Cj for coal; $1.00 per CJ for synfuels)

High Emissions Scénario
* Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
• No policies to slow carbón dioxide emissions
• No stimulus to improvc end-use efficicncy
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coat
• Strong stimulus for syn/ucls development
• No stimulus for deveiopment of solar energy systems
• Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to

agriculture

• Token environmental costs included in price of energy

Modest Policies Scenario
• Strong stimulus for improved end-use efficiency
• Modest stimulus for solar energy
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem

protection; more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged

• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy
prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
fuel-switching

(Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
(Rale of improvement - 0.75% per year)
(Final Price - S2.75-S3.50 per CJ in 1995)
(Final Price - $20 per CJ in 2040)

($0.15 per CJ for coal; $0.50 per CJ for synfuels)

(Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
(Final price - $15.00 per CJ in 2025 )

(S0.60 per GJ for coal; $1 .50 per CJ for synfuels)

Slow Build-up Scenario
• Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency
• Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem

protection

• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to
discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching

(Rate of improvement - 1.5% per year)
(Final Price - $12.00 per CJ in 2000)

($1.20 per CJ for coal; $3.00 per CJ for synfuels)

Total Emissions of C02 in tht WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)

WRI ScuuHot
WRl SeuuHot
■ High Emissions
■ High Emissions
ABMCJK
▲ Base Case
if Modest Policies
if Modest Policies
• Slow Build-up
• Slow Build-up

/
/

/

/

S'

/
y*

X

/

”1
.. |

a -^
2$ J

“■

s
i
I

<3

2
0
1 ».

12 -

0 Н-1-1-1-1-1

1*73

2000

2023

2030

2073

24 -

By a different approach . Or . R.A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
probabilities to the possible outcome .

The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :

(B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
(B ) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE [FROM 1985 IN°C)
RESIDUAL TEMPERATUHE CHANGE [FROM 1985 IN°C)
EQU,UBRXIM <™ANS.ENT)

(C) CL1MAT|C CHANGE

(C ) CLIMATIC CHANGE

- - - d - -3->_

-

I
I

8.0 - •

П

6.0 + ‘
4.0T
n le
30 T

._(2.5jj._1 )_ _ ■_
Г" ?
S
.00 a
<
i
,

_ U_r
r

_ r _-

BEST GUESS

.45

:

sT* <1 -0 - 1. 1 )

1°

ITT RT - -

t_

v ■
. 1 : J. : •"~l~ » J >
. J –
χ/ \1θθ5 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
1095 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
YEAR
YEAR
\
■‘l99' N.
2006

1
1
i

+ 2015

2026

2035

YEAR

YEAR

>

.

i
III
r+z-rh-rrtn-
800
800
! EQUIVALENT COJCONC (ppmv)
I EQUIVALENT CO.CONC (ppmv)
I

CÔO |
800 !
+

700
700

11

*

I

I

I

500
500
■
J
j
//fl

1

А А
A

(A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
(A) GREENHOUSE FORCING

Legend :

- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases

emissions

T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CC^ concentration
- " transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date

due to the greenhouse forcing

- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have

been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .

- 25 -

The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
above mentioned evaluation :

Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which

we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C .
outside this range is less than 1% .

The chance of falling

- The "best-guess " range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .

The

probability of warming within this range is 45% .

- The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .

This median value - the

best guess - is 2.8°C ."

12 .

The presently available climate models predict ( with various degrees of
uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts ^* :

- Global-Mean Surface Warming ( very probable ).

For a doubling of

atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C .
The most significant
Of course, the actual
uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds .
rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
rate of greenhouse gases, natural fluctuations in the climate system,
and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .

- Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).

Increased heating

of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
greater global mean precipitation .
Despite this increase in global
average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
decreases in rainfall .

- Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).

As the sea ice boundary

is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
surface warming in winter polar regions .
water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .

The greater fraction of open

( 1 ) Source : NRC ( 1987); Current Issues in Climate Change, National Research

Council , Washington DC, USA .

- 26 -

- Summer Continental Dryness /Warming ( likely in the long term ).

Several
studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-tp-summer
reduction of soil wetness .
Of course , these simulations of long-term
equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
climate .

- High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ).

As the climate

warms , the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .

To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
mentioning also a :

- Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ).

Reduced ozone

concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
heat from the stratosphere .
The combination of decreased heating and
increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
upper stratosphere .

This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
" finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that " the expected changes
in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects ( processes which are
a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
change )" ( WMO, 1985 ).

13 .

It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
modification .

- 27 -

As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "Ct^ and other
greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :

- Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain , it is now
believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
produce a significant change during the 21st century .

- ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next

I

50 years .

- Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer

temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
by 4 - 10°C .

In winter precipitation would increase ..."

Potential impacts of climate changes

14 .

Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
At the symposium on " C0£ and
depend on the size and rate of the latter .
other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded

that :

"The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,,
global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."

In particular such impacts could involve :

15 .

Sea level rise

Over the past 100 years , while global mean temperature has increased by
( Source : US-EPA
approximately 0.5°C , sea level has risen by 10-15 cm .
( 1986); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
Volume 1 ).

The projected global warming could have the following results :

. heating and therefore expanding the ocean water;
. melting of mountain glaciers ;
. melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica;
. a possible (but unlikely) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic

ice sheet into the ocean .

- 28 -

A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
avai labié .

The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference , June
1988 ).

A significant rise in sea level would :

. permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
. accelerate coastal erosion ;
. exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
. increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .

16 .

Réduction of Sea Ice

As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .
a very probable effect .

This is

17 .

Water Resources Impacts

While it is likely that global mean precipitation will

Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
patterns .
increase, some regions may experience decreases in rainfall .
studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
mid-latitudes .
agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :

As well as the impacts that this will have on

Several

. availability of water for human consumption;
. power génération;
. effluent dilution ;
. navigation .

18 .

Agriculture

It should be mentioned that an increase in the COg atmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
This direct effect is difficult to
effect on crops and vegetation .
quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
reduce the rate of net photosynthesis .

Moreover any attempt to take it

- 29 -

into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .

The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :

. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at

regional level ;

. length of growing season;
. number of extreme temperature events .

There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .

- The " Slow change " view : emphasises the significance of gradual

increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual,
long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
agricultural patterns .

- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
flooding .

There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .

The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
summarised below

( 2 )

:

"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in

plant growth rates ;

Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds )
Variations on Agriculture , Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands .

; The Impact of Climate

( 1987)

30 -

- changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;

- changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality;

- changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,

pesticides and herbicides ."

Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases

etc .

At present , there is uncertainty about the nature , the magnitude and
location of impacts .

Studies so far conclude the following :

- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
levels are high latitude, semi-arid and high-altitude regions .

- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing

areas of Europe and North-America .

- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen ^ et al, show
reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats,
due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .

Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs , changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .

Hansen J. et al ( 1983 )

:

" Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for

Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .

609-662 .

- 31

In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
systems in various regions of the world .
Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
socio-economic impacts .

19 .

Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production

It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
potential effect of CO^ on vegetation made at the beginning of
paragraph 18 applies here too .

Predicted impacts include the following :

. modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural

forest ecosystems ;

. increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
. modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
. disturbance of timber - and woodproducts markets and trade ;
. danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local

ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
reduction of global genetic variability of forests .

20 .

Human Health Impacts

It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
impacts for human health .

It could in particular :

. possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round

temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;

. cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme

events );

- 32 -

Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .

21 .

Ecology and Fisheries Impacts

The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning

:

. impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
. impacts on marine ecosystems ;
. multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,

resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;

. impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals

could migrate ).

The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .

Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
coupled, both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
capable of being modified by climate .
However, it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
overf i shing .

II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES

Introduction

22 .

Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
Chamberlin , 1899 ).

Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du CO^ par un
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .

- 33 -

Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
l' objet de l' attention des responsables_politiques .____
Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .

As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :

. the "Villach" conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985);
. the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract CO^

rising concentrations ( September 1985 )

. The EEC Symposium on "COg and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,

3-5 November 1986 );

. The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding' to climatic

change " (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987);

. The Brundtland Commission 's report
. The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June

1988 ).

The last event is of particular importance for future development and
its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .

Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to

this document .

The world conference on "The changing atmosphere , implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988

)

- 34 -

23 .

This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
organizations participated in the sessions .

Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
most important and are therefore reproduced in full :

The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an

"- Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended, globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
global nuclear war .
unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
population growth in many regions .
threat to international security and are already having harmful
consequences over many parts of the globe .

These changes represent a major

- Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level

rise, which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .
potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations .
It is
imperative to act now ."

The best predictions available indicate

The following immediate actions are recommended :

"A. Actions by Governments and Industry

- Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone

The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly

Layer .
complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
the year 2000 .
halocarbons should be considered .

- 35 -

Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of C02 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of C02 is an imperative
goal .
It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels .
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce C02 emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .

Energy research and

Clearly, the

Reduce C02 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal .
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .
About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures .
modifications in supplies .

The other half should be effected by

Improving energy efficiency is not

Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases .
A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 .
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones .
of the systems implications of this target should be made .
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases .
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 .
implications of this target should also be made .
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .

A detailed study of the systems

A detailed study

The contributions

As with efficiency, a

Equally,

Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
(i ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels,
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;
nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons

( iii ) revisiting the

(ii ) reviewing

- 36 -

proliferation .
If these problems can be solved , through improved
engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
could have a role to play in lowering COg emissions .

- Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .

- Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and

approve major new projects for energy efficiency .

- Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made

through reduction of fossil fuel combustion , to reduce ( i ) emissions
of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
environment can bear ;
( ii ) substances which are precursors of
tropospheric ozone;

( iii ) other non-Ct^ greenhouse gases .

- Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
use of the product .

B. Action by Member Governments

of the United Nations ,

Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .

- Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
The

This should be vigorously pursued at the

framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere .
convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
international exchange of information and support of research and
monitoring, and should provide a framework for specific protocols
for addressing particular issues , taking into account existing
international law .
International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June
1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 .
should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .

These activities

- 37 -

- Establish a World Atmosphere Fund, financed in part by a levy on

fossil fuel consumption of industrialized countries , to mobilize a
substantial part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan for the Protection of the Atmosphere .

- Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government -to -government discussion of responses and strategies .

- Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .

- Increase significantly the funding for research, development and
transfer of information on renewable energy, if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing

agreements .

- Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .

- Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of

proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Development"s ( WCED ) report , "Our Common Future", including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .

- Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow

developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts , monitoring, research and analysis related to the changing
atmosphere .

- 38 -

- Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" ( to be published in
the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26 , and other future meetings
dealing with related issues .

- Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
establishment of environmental education programmes and public
Such
awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere .
programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
changing public values and behaviour with respect to the

environment .

- Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary

and secondary schools and universities .
given to establishing special groups in university departments for
addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .

Consideration should be

Future possible developaents

24 .

A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
activites is initiation, already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .

Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
specific protocols in the frame of such convention .

25 .

Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :

- the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa

early in 1989;

- a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by

the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;

- 39 -

“ the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June 1990;

“ the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992

which could be the culminating event .

26 .

The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
probably consist in :

a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;

b ) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;

c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation

on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .

Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
term development .

Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
aspects of the issue .

27 .

28 .

In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .

This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
( 1987) workshop ( see Annex )

:

"... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
international community in promoting sustainable development .

- 40 -

The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
The significance
ramifications of these numerous interconnections .
of the difference in regional impact should not , however, be allowed
to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
This is not a "zero-sum" game .
regions into "winners " or " losers ".
Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
uncertain proportions ."

III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS

Introduction

29 .

Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
the greenhouse issue .

Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview , could
include :

- research ;
- preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases

emissions );

- adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
preventive measures ).

30 .

Policy measures may be classed into three groups :

( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require

international agreement (e.g. reduction of CO^ emissions);
(b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for

water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
policies , etc .);

- 41

( c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
to be adopted , taking account of ( a ) and of particular European
conditions ).

The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
conditions ; local measures cannot do so .

31 .

The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to

correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :

( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
will happen , when, where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
could consider .

( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to' know

- which danger, when and where, one has to face and what

consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
large are to be expected;

- how to implement at best the measures decided;

Therefore, the study of policy options and scientific research have to
go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two.
Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
and needs .

- 42 -

Research activities

32 .

Already since 1980 , the Commission of the European Communities is
carrying out a research programme in Climatology, whose main research
areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
resources .
The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
the scientific consensus available at that date .

Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .

33 .

In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
on important sectors of the European environment .

Such intensified research should concern in particular :

( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts

( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
risks for European coastal installations, the impacts on coastal
ecosystems and coastal land use ).

( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops , forests , water
resources (bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased CO^ and
climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).

( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive

aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
progressive drought on vegetation ).

- 43 -

( 4 ) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
upon agriculture and industry ( the impacts of the alternance of
droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources / the impacts
of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
agriculture and industry ).

( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .

( 6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
affected by any policy option that could be adopted .

( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community,
due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
consequences for agriculture , consequences for cost line regions of
the sea level rise , etc .

Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
atmospheric and oceanic conditions .
allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to

International agreements should

A vital component of a monitoring
space based monitoring systems .
programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
to natural and man-induced changes .

34 .

Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution,
call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
As far as CO^ is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .

These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies , rational use of
energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
from the new energy technologies developed so far .

35 .

Elimination of CC^ at the source could eventually become a new domain of
resarch .
avai lable .

No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet

New directions for research in this field should be explored .

36 .

The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by

Moreover, the management of the CO^ problem implies both the definition
of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
objectives .
how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
reduction .
economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction , the
allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .

The implementation action will have to determine the

Energy-Environment models give the

System Analysis can, in principle , provide the adequate basis for
looking at these questions .
possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals;
Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .

The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
energy related CC^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .

The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
on the energy and economy sectors .

Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )

37 .

Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them .
Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
objective but could be a very long term goal .

- 45 -

38 .

The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including, in case of CO^
reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .

Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most

relevant greenhouse gases here below .

39 .

Carbon dioxide ( Ct^) emissions

As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , CO^
fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
decomposition .

emissions are mostly due to

Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the

energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
could help to preserve forests .

A tentative list of actions aiming at COg emissions reduction which
could be studied might include :

A. Energy related measures for CO^

i

There are several types of technical energy related measures that
could curb CC^ emissions , as listed below.
Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
physical potential of COg emission reduction of a given measure and
its economic viability .

The following technical measures , which are listed without any
ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce CO^ emissions from
carbon-based fuels :

a . Energy Efficiency

- improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs, better insulation, more efficient cars , electronic
regulations , etc .);

- 46 -

- improving the efficiency of energy supply ( e.g. cogeneration ,

introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);

b . Energy Supply

- fuel switching to less CO^ emitting fuels ( the relation of CC^
emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
follows : 121 , 100 , 88 , 58 );

- increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,

windpower , hydro , geothermal , photovoltaics );

- increased use of nuclear power .

c . Biotic sources

- Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
the CC^ atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;

d . CO^ technology abatement

- Although at present no economically or technically feasible

technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not

be excluded for the future .

e . Long-term development

- Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy

carriers .

Any policy decision aiming at reducing CO^ emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector .
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .

On the other hand , any

- 47 -

System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
exploring consequences of economic -energy-environmental related
measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CC^ reduction
goals .
technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
objective and hence should deserve more attention .

Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify

B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems

a . Conserve forest resources

- promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;

- assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a

sustainable basis ;

- reinforce prevention and fighting of forest ^ires;

- promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;

- provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the

utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .

b . Promote afforestation

. - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and

tropical regions ;

- promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,

c . Natural ecosystem protection

- promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly

relevant for the global carbon cycle .

- 48 -

40 .

CFCs emissions

Possible preventative actions are :

a . Constrain use

b . Constrain production
c . Recapture and recycle or destroy

*

41 .

CH^, N^O emissions

Actions which could be considered are :

a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
b . Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
c . Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice

cultivation and lagoons management, aiming at reducing CH^ release.
e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce

^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .

42 .

The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
feasible, could be considered to stimulate or complement technology

measures .

Planned adaptation

43 .

Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
levels .

Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary

if it is believed that :

- impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust

to in the short term ;

- implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
now , it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).

- 49 -

At this stage it is not possible to cover, even in qualitative and
simple way, all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
However , it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .

44 .

Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :

- Sea walls / flood barriers .
- National flood insurance programmes .
- Construction of reservoirs ( to combat increased salinity ).
- Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
~ Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
- Protection of coastal ecosystems .

45 .

Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
impacts on agriculture are :

- More efficient use of fertilisers .

- Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production;
- Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
- Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion

control , water management , etc .

Cooperation with developing countries

46 .

All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
the greenhouse effect .

In particular :

a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to

prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;

50 -

b) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in

medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
increase of ocean level );

c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of

implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
research programme on the greenhouse effect .

IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION

51

47 .

The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
that deplete the ozone layer .
This will involve the adoption and
application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision ,
Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .

48 .

The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that

deplete the ozone layer .
CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
recommended by the Toronto conference .

The Protocol should be revised so that the

49 .

50 .

The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
the atmosphere .
It should be prepared to give an important contribution
to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and

programmes .

Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
substantial policy~options study programme to evaluate the feasibility,
costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
emissions .
international debate on the issue .

Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the

The main areas of such programme should be :

- identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies

in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases

emissions ;

- analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
and technologies ;

- structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular

to possible strategic targets for CO^ emission ceilings .

- 52 -

A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
this frame .

The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .

- establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
probabi listical ly policy options and their likely results an
benefits .

- identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with

unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .

The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .

The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
climatology and energy .
Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .

51 .

The greenhouse effect is a global problem, the Community should
therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy ,
involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
development .

Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
organizations and third countries .
In particular the Commission work
programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .

52 .

The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the

greenhouse effect .
Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .

- 53 -

k

53 .

54 .

55 .

Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
The
development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear technology .
accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
technologies in these fields should be given high priority . .
There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
efficiency improvements in terms of CO^ reductions .

The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
technologies having the potential to limit COg emissions .

Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
environment .

56 .

The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
adaptation measures .

In particular :

- An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas

which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as,
for instance, islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
precariously low, coastal states, etc .
reference basis against which policies could be evaluated .
It would
certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
developing countries .

Such maping would form a

– The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into

account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
for instance, dams , agricultural projects which involve major
modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on

54 -

Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term

tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
ecosystems .
sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
increased , in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
effect may make more likely .
storms which is expected to increase .)
regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate

( For example the strength of tropical

In preparing national

account is taken of the greenhouse effect .

57 .

In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
These programmes should consider both the physical and the
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .

In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
competent authorities .

58 .

Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue .
Commission should be represented in this Committee .

Member States and the

Recent aajor events on the greenhouse issue

- 56 -

A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and

the rate of C0-, and of other greenhouse gases in climate variations and
associated impacts (Villach - Austria , 9-15 October 1985 ))

This conference was jointly convened by UNEP , WMO and ICSU with
participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
countries .

The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this

conference :

" Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
without modification , are a reliable guide to the future .
longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
global climate in the next century ."

This is no

"While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
fossil fuels, and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."

"Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
ecosystems , agriculture, water resources and sea ice ."

- 57 -

"Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
policies on social and economic development , environmental
programmes , and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."

" Public information efforts should be increased by international
agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."

"Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
regional precipitation and temperature patterns .
are also imperfectly known .
greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments .
should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."

Nevertheless , the understanding of the

Efforts

Ecosystem responses

B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and

associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)

Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC, DG XII , was
held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 .
It was attended by about 60
leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
of the atmospheric COg and other greenhouse gases .

Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
issue, mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :

"- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
closer and more interactive exchange of views .

58 -

- It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the

necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."

C. The workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
(Villach - Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,

9-13 November 1987)

These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
the Villach conference in order to " start policy analysis to identify the
widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
climatic changes ".

Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
following conclusions / recommendations were presented :

" Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions

Immediate approval and implementation of the

( 1 ) Ozone Protocol
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
CFC emissions ).
after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of

Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that

emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
greenhouse gas limitation .

( 2 ) Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing CO^
emissions .
energy systems must be greatly intensified .

Research and development on alternative ( non-fossil )

( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
Forest Action Plan , 1987 .
Such measures are currently necessary
because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture ,

- 59 -

energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc .
The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .

( 4 ) Other Trace Gases

Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere .
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices , etc .

Examples include landfills that emit methane; NgO

Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise

( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies

International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
Planning for large new industrial , tourist
intensifying land-use .
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of

possible sea-level rise .

Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it

( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools .
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
Such an
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change .
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases ( expressed in terms of C02
equivalence ) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these, regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .

An environmental goal

- 60 -

( 7 ) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes, atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .

It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / GEMS ( Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for

monitoring the changing climate ;

- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the

changing climate .

The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .

( 8 ) Research

ICSU, UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact .
The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .

Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .

Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."

- 61 -

D. The Brundtland Commission's report

The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
promoting a sustainable development .

Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
Session in the fall of 1987 .

This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
It is suggested to consider :

improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;

- increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,

mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;

- the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction

of the causative gases ; and

- adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the

climate changes and rising sea level ."

The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
international convention on "management policies for all
environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".

E. The European Parliament resolution

The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of C02 in
the atmosphere :

" The European Parliament

- having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' )

( Doc .

B2-1430 / 84 ).

- 62 -

- having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).

A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
deforestation respectively .

B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up , which is greater at
the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and , in some cases ,
disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .

C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
assuming no change in human-activity patterns .

D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
slow but perceptible changes in the environment of ' the world in
order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects

and to exploit beneficial consequences .

1 .

Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented to combat pollution, provided such
measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and

propellants , since, contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;

2 .

Calls upon the Commission, in future activities in the field of
agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
benefiting the environment too;

- 63 -

3 .

4 .

5 .

6 .

7 .

8 .

9 .

Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
purification respectively;

Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation , for which the
Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;

Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
countries ;

Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;

Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
essential requirement for climatic stability;

Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
the Northern hemisphere , which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate, to ensure that the developing nations are
given access to the latest technological know-how ;

Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
directly responsible - about the implications of the human
activities in question , while explaining the need for effective

measures ;

10 .

Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;

11 .

Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
its committee to the Council and the Commission ."

Commission 's work programme on
the analysis of policy options to deal with
risks associated with the "greenhouse: issue "

I.

CONTENT OF THE PROGRAMME

This programme should provide the elements useful to establish the
possible role of the Community and of its Member States in defining and
promoting within the appropriate international fora the measures needed
to deal with risks associated with the greenhouse effect .

To this end this work programme will deal with the following subjects :

A.

Identification of Policy options to prevent / reduce Emissions of

Greenhouse Gases .

The measures needed to achieve strategic target 'reductions in
emissions of different greenhouse gases will be identified .
For each greenhouse gas , this will involve a detailed assessment of
the options available for emissions reductions, the level of
emission reduction associated with each option , and the package of
measures needed to achieve strategic target reductions .
potential for emissions prevention / reduction will be considered for
the following sectors :

The

- energy production ;
- energy consumption ( including transportation );
- industrial productions ;

- use of products ;
- agricultural activities .

An appropriate approach will be needed to take into account the
different specific situation of countries or groups of countries .
In particular it will need to consider the following :

- 2 -

- State of économie development ;
- current energy policies ;

- geography .

G.

Implications of Options for Emission Reductions .

The emission reduction options will be examined to assess the

following :

- technical and industrial implications ;
- financial and économie implications ;
- political , institutional and social implications .

C.

Development of a Decision Analysis Framework .

A framework will be developed in order to structure the available
information on all aspects of the greenhouse issue , in such a way
as to allow identification of likely benefits ( in terms of
reduction of risks of climate modifications , etc .) corresponding to
different policy options .

The framework will take account of ;

- emissions and emission reductions ;
- the implications of these réductions ;
- available scientific data on the potential benefits of

alternative emission controls .

The framework will be designed to take account of uncertainty about
emissions , effectiveness of controls , climate change and effects
and will allow for the identification of the most likely outcomes
resulting from different actions .

By structuring the problem and identifying key

The framework will also allow the implications of delaying action
to be examined .
areas of uncertainty to which outcomes are most sensitive , the
framework will provide an important tool for evaluating actions and
for focussing future research on key decision questions .

- 3 -

0 .

Evaluation of likely benefits of different policy options by use of
a decision analysis framework and establishment of the climatic and
impact scenarios resulting from implementation of emission control
options .

The framework will be used to determine the possible outcomes of
the alternative emission reduction options and their timing
( scenarios ).

It will also indicate the relative likelihood of the

benefits that would be achieved .

E.

Identification and evaluation of adaptive measures needed under the

different scenarios worked out under D. above

Even with the implementation of emission control policies there
will still be residual risks associated with past emissions and the
remaining future emissions to the atmosphere .
( i.e. actions to protect people , property, agriculture and economic
and natural resources ) will therefore need to be identified to cope
with these risks .
The magnitude and location of key residual risks
wilt be identified and the cost and time implications of taking
different adaptive measures will be evaluated .
will need to be prioritised to insure maximum residual risk
reduction with resources available , and that focus is placed on key

Adaptive measures .

Adaptive measures

areas of concern .

II .

DETAILED LIST OF ACTIVITIES

The execution of this programme will require i.a . the following

activities :

A.

Emissions analysis and émission réduction options .

i

Prepare emission trend analysis for each Greenhouse gas .
These emissions should be analysed by ( a ) region ( b ) by
political , strategic and economic groupings .

- 4 -

ii

iii

Determine factors ( other than implementation of control )
likely to influence future emissions .
and develop alternative emissions scenarios .

Assess their likelihood

Identify the available emission control options for each
Greenhouse gas .
the extent of the potential reductions .

Assess under the different emission scenarios

B.

Assessment of Emission Control Options Implications

i

Determine the practicality , cost and implementation timing of

each of the emission reduction measures .

ii

Assess the social and economic effects .

iii

Assess the distributional effects ( a ) within individual

countries ,
strategic groupings .

( b) between countries ,

( c ) between political and

C.

Establish a framework to integrate information developed during the

work programme

The framework should be designed to :

- show the implications of alternative actions , including the costs

and potential benefits ;

- indicate the implications of taking action at different times ;

- indicate the robustness of possible decisions ( on control
strategies or adaptive strategies ) taking account of the
uncertainties in the predictions and in the available scientific

data );

- provide a focus on the further research required to support the

decisions that need to be taken .

An Assessment of Emission Control Strategies

i

ii

Determine the likely benefits that would be achieved through
the Emission Control Strategies .
critical review of mechanisms linking Greenhouse gas
concentrations to global warming with particular reference to
feed back systems , timing and implications for regional
climates .

This work will require a

Based on the critical review , prepare an assessment of the
likelihood of the alternative predictions and their
implications .
principal experts and if practical probabilities will be
assigned to reflect the uncertainty of different outcomes .

This work should integrate the views of the

iii

Drawing on this information , and on information developed on
emission reductions ( A ) and their implications ( B ), the
decision framework developed under C will be used to assess

the costs , benefits and other implications of alternative
emission control options .

Assessment of Adaptive Measures

i

ii

iii

Review the implications of different levels of warming
particularly on European infrastructure and food supply;
identify other key implications .
political and economic groupings of countries .

Assess the effects on other

Undertake a review of options that might be implemented to
respond to the potential changes Ci )
changing planning practices , etc .).

(eg new crop varieties ,

Based on the assessment undertaken in ( D ) and using the
framework developed in ( C ), assess the costs and benefits of
alternative adaptive measures ; assess the likelihood that such
adaptive measures would prove effective taking account of the
predicted effects .

III .

GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PROGRAMME

- 6 -

A.

In executing this programme the Commission will take full account
of the other relevant activities both inside the Community and
worldwide , such as :

- the EC research programme on climatology and natural hazards ;

- the EC joint research center programmes on energy conservation ,

solar energy and thermal conversion , nuclear safety , etc .;

- the outcome of recent international conferences ( such as the

conference on the Changing Atmosphere , Toronto , June 88 );

- The UNEP / WMO working party on climatic change ;

etc .

To this end the Commission will establish appropriate cooperation
with the relevant organizations involved in such activities .

8 .

Assisted by the Committee referred to in Article 1 of the Decision ,
the Commission will define the procedures and the concrete steps
for this working programme , as well as the information to be
provided by Member States .

Competent organizations and government departments in Member States
will be associated with the work through the above mentioned

Committee .

IV .

FINANCING OF THE PROGRAMME

The funds estimated as necessary for the implementation of the
programme amount to 6 million ECU .

Draft

Council resolution on the greenhouse issue and the Community

The Council of the European Communities ,

Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community,
Having regard to the draft resolution from the Commission ,

whereas the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community , as amended
by the Single European Act provides for the development and implementation
of a Community policy on the environment and the same Treaty also provides
that in preparing its action in this field, the Community will take account
of the available scientific and technical data and of the potential
benefits and costs of action or of lack of action ;

whereas this resolution is guided by the considerations set out in the
resolution of 19 October 1987 concerning an action programme of the
European Communities on the environment
at the appropriate level and the need to coordinate work at international
level , to assess the benefits and costs of the actions envisaged and to
make adequate technical and political preparation for such action;

i.e. the desirability of action

( 1 )

whereas the available scientific data , in particular results from Community
Environmental Research Programmes , show that the composition of the
atmosphere is being significantly modified by human activities and
according to the available climatic models this could finally bring, by a
so called " greenhouse effect ", climatic modifications involving important
impacts on the environment , on human beings and their activities ;

whereas , given the nature and the size of risks involved in the greenhouse
issue , it is urgent to examine possibilities for action aiming at
preventing or reducing those risks ;

( 1 ) OJ n° C 328 of 7.12.1987, p.1 .

- 2 -

whereas in the frame of recent international conferences , a very broad
consensus has been reached on the need of urgently considering measures to
reduce greenhouse gases emissions :

whereas , given the complexity of the greenhouse effect issue and the many
and far reaching implications both of this effect and of measures which
could be considered to prevent or to mitigate its consequences , a careful
prior examination of possible policy options is required which should be
made by appropriate methodologies taking in particular into account
adequately the uncertainties still outstanding on several aspects of the
issue ;

whereas it is of the utmost importance that the Community and its Member
States are in a position to give a fundamental contribution to the
reflexion on and elaboration of policy decisions to be eventually taken
within the appropriate international fora in order to act in the most
effective manner against the risks of climatic modifications .

Welcomes the communication from the Commission on " the greenhouse issue and
the Community" and approves its main conclusions and recommendations ;

Declares that the Community should devote increasing attention to the risks
of potential climatic changes involved in the greenhouse issue and should
contribute substantially to promote reflexion and discussion on possible
measures to counter those risks ;

Welcomes the initiative of the Commission to launch a work programme
concerning the evaluation of policy options to deal with risks associated
with the greenhouse issue and approves the objectives of such programme ;

Invites Member States to cooperate actively with the Commission in the
execution of the above mentioned work programme and to coordinate their
relevant activities on the greenhouse issue within that framework ;

Invites the Commission to present to the Council and to the European
Parliament a progress report by mid of 1990 and a final report on the
results obtained by that work programme and on the conclusions drawn by
end 1991 .