Hello, Austria.  
Look, I'd love to be besties and all that, and maybe we'll get there.  But for now can I assume that we both have bigger fish to fry, and that we both know that attacking each other early will mean mutually assured destruction?

I'm open to a non-aggression pact, possibly with sharing information, natirally.  Outside of that, let me know what's on your mind and we'll go from there.

Best,

- Kaiser No thoughts on the start of the game?  Any information I can share, or vice-versa?

You're pretty quiet down there... I actually thought I'd responded sorry. I don't know why we can't be best friends. Germany does well then Austria can do well and vice versa. Not much from.my neighbours. You got anything from Italy? Nothing from you or Italy until now.  You'll be shocked to learn that Turkey mused about how much he loves to play Germany and open to Tyrolia.  😂

Can't blame a guy for trying, I guess!

Anyway, for now I'm good with a short pact to stay out of Tyrolia (unless you've planned a bounce with Italy or something, but that would be weird ). Maybe limit it to 1901 for now?  I don't have any plans in that neighborhood, but I don't want to bind your hands if something comes up with Russia or Italy. Tyr 1901 for me would be pretty crazy and no I don't plan for it so I'm happy to agree to it. I've got nothing from Italy either so I'll just have to play defensively there. Russia seems to be interested in opening north I wish I could say "what can I do to help you," but I have nothing in range.

What I am doing is sowing some seeds of doubt with Italy - floating the idea that Russia and Turkey are working together, and backhandedly noting how bad it will be for him if they are, and they wipe you out quickly.

You have a best probabilistic set of moves, but the best you can realistically hope for is maybe 1 build if you go +Greece, +Serbia, -Trieste.  Maybe.

If I were you, I'd reach out to Italy.  Suggest that he take Tunis, and instead of forcing him out of Trieste, you'll take Greece and move on.  Tell him you're going to move to Trieste because it's your best move.  It is.  Request that he move to Vienna, because that's Russia's best move (it is) and you want to prevent him from getting another build.

You'd move Bud-Tri, and Ser S Alb-Gre. Scenario 1: Italy agrees.
1a) Italy moves to Vienna, Russia moves to Vienna, Ukraine moves to Galacia.  None of those moves work and, unless Turkey and Italy are working together (or Turkey inexplicably moves Bul-Ser) you get Greece and build in Vienna.

1b) Italy moves to Vienna, Russia to Budapest.  You're in the same position, but losing Budapest instead of Trieste.

Scenario 2: Double-cross, and Italy thinks you're lying:
2a) Italy moves to Tri-Budapest and Venice-Trieste.  Russia gets Vienna if it moves there, nothing if to Budapest.
2b) Ven S Tri H, F ION - Alb (He thinks you're going to support yourself back into Vienna). You get Greece, Russia gets Vienna if it moves there, nothing if it moves to Budapest.
2c) Tri-Bud, Ven-Tyr - bounces. Scenario 3: Double cross, Italy believes you.
3a) Tri holds, support from Venice (thought you were truthful about Bud-Tri, but left out that you were supporting yourself.  That would be incredibly stupid on your part, with Russia at your back and intentionally antagonizing Italy.  Here again, it comes down to whether Russia moves to Vienna or Budapest.)
3b) Ion-Gre, Tri-Vie, Ven-Tyr (he won't go to Trieste if he thinks you're moving there, because a bounce is as good as taking it). You still take Greece.  You end up in Trieste.  You keep all 3 home centers if Russia goes to Vienna (and +2!) or lose Budapest if he goes there (+1).

Note: if Italy is coordinating with Russia or Turkey, all this is out the window.  But in that case you're hosed no matter what.

How's that for more input than you wanted?  Sorry about that.  Anyway, rough open!  Good luck on the recovery - even selfishly, you getting beat up early is nothing but bad news for me! I really am sorry about that spam.  I started thinking about your situation, playing it forward, and taking a couple notes, and then...

I guess at a certain point it just seemed like a shame to waste it.

🥺 Haha no worries. My fault really. Russia tells me this grand plan of going North. Throws in a weird move in his plan with Warsaw and I respond with the thumbs down, you're lying on all fronts. But then I don't play the appropriate moves to back it up. I heard nothing from Italy so assumed he'd open standard. Should've just hedgehogged but I like getting a fast start with Austria. Anyway, Russia is probably working with Italy. Still haven't heard back from them at all. At least Eng / Fra don't look friendly for you but you're going to have Russian problems pretty quickly. Still nothing from Italy, and Russia can't build in Warsaw without breaking his NAP.  You really need to be working with Turkey - I told him the same thing.  I can put pressure on Italy by pressuring France.

But look, for transparency: if you're sunk, and I'm in position... I'm interested in eating your centers.  I won't do it unless and until you're ready to call it, though. When you're thinking about your moves, plan on me moving to Tyrolia.  Unless he supports himself in (unlikely) I'll either bounce him or be there in the fall.  If you want to brainstorm on moves (and I can do the same with Turkey) let me know.

If you're not sure if you can trust me, consider - if you go down early, I'm sunk.  Yes, I want to be involved so I'll be in position to gobble you up so that Russia can't.  But for what it's worth I promise I will help you unless you think it's hopeless. ...and I'll be transparent about it either way. Looks like the Cossack bit off more than he can chew.  He should be either -1 or -2 in the South this year.  From what I can see, you & Turkey can lose the guessing game with any move set except one.

Any way I can help? To both Austria and Turkey...

In case you want to play with it, here's the sandbox:  https://www.backstabbr.com/sandbox/5637073032183808

I can't solve it.  Here's what I know:
1) we have to assume Italy is working with Russia.  So my Tyr-Tri is a lock.
2) we have to assume that Russia takes Ankara.
3) Barring very unusual moves, the only place we can possibly Rumania from is Budapest.  Exception to this is a sneaky Rum-Bul move, but that's unlikely.
4) *Almost* sure that Vienna has to hit Galacia, but depending on other moves supporting Budapest is almost as good. Russia is friendly with Turkey now too so we can't assume ank falls although likely considering how Russia is playing. Their play has been very weird indeed.  It looked like a classic pretend stab, then a real one, then the double support last season.  But it looked the last turn was you and Turkey working together and him getting fed up with the Russo-Turkish mess.

I'll be more careful, though.