title: Life expectancy reductions from New Zealand's unbalanced Covid response

authors: Gibson, John

subjects: Covid-19

abstract: Safety-at-all-costs approaches may perversely increase mortality if indirect effects from lower incomes outweigh direct effects of the safety intervention. New Zealand’s output in 2020 was five percent less than expected, mainly due to responses to Covid-19. This output loss implies a life expectancy reduction of 0.9%; equivalent to two million fewer expected life years. Cross-country data show higher output losses, the more restrictive the early response to Covid-19 (New Zealand’s response was the most restrictive in the world at the time), controlling for economic structure. Yet more restrictive lockdowns did not reduce mortality in 2020. Perversely, New Zealand's response to Covid-19 may have reduced life expectancy.

text: Life expectancy reductions from New Zealand's unbalanced Covid response Safety-at-all-costs approaches may perversely increase mortality if indirect effects from lower incomes outweigh direct effects of the safety intervention. New Zealand’s output in 2020 was five percent less than expected, mainly due to responses to Covid-19. This output loss implies a life expectancy reduction of 0.9%; equivalent to two million fewer expected life years. Cross-country data show higher output losses, the more restrictive the early response to Covid-19 (New Zealand’s response was the most restrictive in the world at the time), controlling for economic structure. Yet more restrictive lockdowns did not reduce mortality in 2020. Perversely, New Zealand's response to Covid-19 may have reduced life expectancy.

year: 2021

title: Calculating the surface melt rate of Antarctic glaciers using satellite-derived temperatures and stream flows

authors: Brabyn, Lars

subjects: Science & Technology

abstract: Melt rate models are fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers and the subsequent effects on habitats and sea level rise. Ice melt models have mostly been derived from energy balance or air temperature index calculations. This research demonstrates that satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) measurements provide a simpler method for estimating surface melt rate that substitutes for energy balance models. Since these satellite images are continuous (distributed) across space, they do not need calibration for topography. Antarctic glacier melt discharge data from nearby stream gauges were used to calibrate an LST-derived melt model. The model calculations are simplified by the fact that groundwater flow is assumed to be minimal due to permafrost, and the glaciers are assumed to only melt on the surface. A new method called the Temperature Area Sum model is developed, which builds on an existing Temperature Area Index model. A daily melt rate model is developed using 77 Landsat 8 images and calculates the volume of meltwater produced per hectare for any given LST between − 7 and 0 °C. A seasonal average daily melt rate model is also developed that uses 1660 MODIS images. The utility of the seasonal MODIS model is demonstrated by calculating melt rates, water flows and wetness across the entire Ross Sea Region. An unexpected large wet area to the southwest of the Ross Ice Shelf requires further investigation and demonstrates the usefulness of these models for large remote areas. Surface melt rate and wetness can now be calculated for different climate change scenarios.

text: Calculating the surface melt rate of Antarctic glaciers using satellite-derived temperatures and stream flows Melt rate models are fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers and the subsequent effects on habitats and sea level rise. Ice melt models have mostly been derived from energy balance or air temperature index calculations. This research demonstrates that satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) measurements provide a simpler method for estimating surface melt rate that substitutes for energy balance models. Since these satellite images are continuous (distributed) across space, they do not need calibration for topography. Antarctic glacier melt discharge data from nearby stream gauges were used to calibrate an LST-derived melt model. The model calculations are simplified by the fact that groundwater flow is assumed to be minimal due to permafrost, and the glaciers are assumed to only melt on the surface. A new method called the Temperature Area Sum model is developed, which builds on an existing Temperature Area Index model. A daily melt rate model is developed using 77 Landsat 8 images and calculates the volume of meltwater produced per hectare for any given LST between − 7 and 0 °C. A seasonal average daily melt rate model is also developed that uses 1660 MODIS images. The utility of the seasonal MODIS model is demonstrated by calculating melt rates, water flows and wetness across the entire Ross Sea Region. An unexpected large wet area to the southwest of the Ross Ice Shelf requires further investigation and demonstrates the usefulness of these models for large remote areas. Surface melt rate and wetness can now be calculated for different climate change scenarios.

year: 2020

title: Bizarre thoughts, magical ideations, and voices from the unconscious: Exploring issues of anomalous experience

authors: Tamatea, Armon J.

subjects: Maori

abstract: This project was initially concerned with the clinical interpretations of ‘bizarre’ or
‘magical’ ideations (i.e., statements considered to have little or no validity in our
predominant western culture). The first study explored clinical assessment issues
of who determines the validity of expressed beliefs and what kinds of criteria such
decisions are based on in the mental health field. The present study examined a
particular type of magical ideation, an auditory phenomenon involving claims that
forward spoken conversation contains hidden backwards speech embedded in the
vocal sounds. Thirty-two participants were invited to listen to various audio
samples of the alleged phenomenon and provide interpretations of what was heard.
Participants were assigned to four groups, each differing in the level of pre-emptive
information. A comparative measure revealed that priming and suggestion could
not be dismissed as alternative explanations of the reported effects. Clinical and
social implications will be discussed.

text: Bizarre thoughts, magical ideations, and voices from the unconscious: Exploring issues of anomalous experience This project was initially concerned with the clinical interpretations of ‘bizarre’ or
‘magical’ ideations (i.e., statements considered to have little or no validity in our
predominant western culture). The first study explored clinical assessment issues
of who determines the validity of expressed beliefs and what kinds of criteria such
decisions are based on in the mental health field. The present study examined a
particular type of magical ideation, an auditory phenomenon involving claims that
forward spoken conversation contains hidden backwards speech embedded in the
vocal sounds. Thirty-two participants were invited to listen to various audio
samples of the alleged phenomenon and provide interpretations of what was heard.
Participants were assigned to four groups, each differing in the level of pre-emptive
information. A comparative measure revealed that priming and suggestion could
not be dismissed as alternative explanations of the reported effects. Clinical and
social implications will be discussed.

year: 2003