title: How do people assess the truth of partially-familiar claims, relative to both familiar and unfamiliar claims?

authors: McLennan, Daniel Henry

abstract: People rate familiar claims as more true than unfamiliar claims, possibly because familiarity makes these claims feel easier to process. But little is known about how people assess the truth of claims that consist of a combination of familiar and unfamiliar information. It is important to know how people assess such “partially-familiar” claims because false claims often contain a familiar “kernel of truth” that may make the claim as a whole seem more believable. If this were the case, we would expect people to rate more partially-familiar claims true than unfamiliar claims, yet fewer than familiar claims. Across three experiments, we investigated how people assess the truth of partially-familiar claims, relative to both familiar and unfamiliar claims. We found that people classified more familiar claims as true than unfamiliar claims, and roughly the same number of partially-familiar claims true as unfamiliar claims. In other words, we replicated the known finding that people inflate their judgements of truth for familiar claims compared with unfamiliar claims; however, we found no evidence that a “kernel of truth” similarly inflates people’s judgements. This research contributes to our understanding of how people decide whether a claim is true.

text: How do people assess the truth of partially-familiar claims, relative to both familiar and unfamiliar claims? People rate familiar claims as more true than unfamiliar claims, possibly because familiarity makes these claims feel easier to process. But little is known about how people assess the truth of claims that consist of a combination of familiar and unfamiliar information. It is important to know how people assess such “partially-familiar” claims because false claims often contain a familiar “kernel of truth” that may make the claim as a whole seem more believable. If this were the case, we would expect people to rate more partially-familiar claims true than unfamiliar claims, yet fewer than familiar claims. Across three experiments, we investigated how people assess the truth of partially-familiar claims, relative to both familiar and unfamiliar claims. We found that people classified more familiar claims as true than unfamiliar claims, and roughly the same number of partially-familiar claims true as unfamiliar claims. In other words, we replicated the known finding that people inflate their judgements of truth for familiar claims compared with unfamiliar claims; however, we found no evidence that a “kernel of truth” similarly inflates people’s judgements. This research contributes to our understanding of how people decide whether a claim is true.

year: 2023

title: Exuberance in British share prices during the railway mania of the 1840s: Evidence from the Phillips, Shi and Yu Test

authors: Oxley, Les

subjects: explosive behaviour

abstract: In this study, we empirically investigate evidence of explosive behaviour in the British share prices of canals, railways and waterworks in the nineteenth century using the right-tailed unit root test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY). Of particular interest to the Railway Mania in the 1840s, our results provide evidence of exuberance in share prices of railways during the most remarkable events in history. In addition, we find signs of exuberance in canals and waterworks share prices. Our findings will be of great interest to both economic historians and scholars who are interested in the rage of speculation in historical share prices during the Railway Mania

text: Exuberance in British share prices during the railway mania of the 1840s: Evidence from the Phillips, Shi and Yu Test In this study, we empirically investigate evidence of explosive behaviour in the British share prices of canals, railways and waterworks in the nineteenth century using the right-tailed unit root test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY). Of particular interest to the Railway Mania in the 1840s, our results provide evidence of exuberance in share prices of railways during the most remarkable events in history. In addition, we find signs of exuberance in canals and waterworks share prices. Our findings will be of great interest to both economic historians and scholars who are interested in the rage of speculation in historical share prices during the Railway Mania

year: 2017-04

title: Pātangaroa: Co-developing management strategies for a starfish outbreak in Ōhiwa Harbour

authors: Ranapia, Megan

subjects: marine management

abstract: The management of marine environments often prioritises scientific information to address complex marine social-ecological issues. However, there is a wealth of learning to be gained from Indigenous people who have generated place-based intergenerational understandings and cultural ethics and practices. Consequently, Indigenous knowledge alongside science can offer better insights, holistic understanding, sustainable management strategies and greater sources of evidence. This research is located in Aotearoa New Zealand and engages in mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) alongside marine ecology as an appropriate method for contemporary marine research and management. The thesis study focused on Ōhiwa Harbour, aiming to co-develop a starfish management action plan (SMAP) with local iwi (tribe) Ngāti Awa and other affiliated iwi, district councils and regional council to address the overabundant starfish (species: Coscinasterias muricata and Patiriella regularis). By engaging in transdisciplinary research and collaborative decision-making, this study sought to bridge the gap between Indigenous knowledge and mainstream science, offering lessons for inclusive marine management practices.

To achieve this, I developed and prescribed a co-developed framework actively promoting a mixed-methods approach, inclusive of kaupapa Māori research methodologies, tikanga, participatory design, applied mātauranga ā iwi, quantitative marine scientific field methods and experimental study design. Through the collaborative process, I identified areas of appropriate research aims and methods. This included co-developing a novel starfish trapping methodology sensitive to local ecology and cultural values and an experimental starfish removal study to assist decision-makers in implementing an efficient and effective starfish removal regime as an approach to management.

Results from the field studies showed the efficacy of starfish traps is dependent on environmental conditions, physical characteristics and soaking time (the length of time the trap is left in the water). A soaking time of 48 h maintained the highest starfish catch per unit effort (CPUE) while minimising time to re-bait and reset traps. Observations also indicated an open trap design had less bycatch than a semi-enclosed box trap and could withstand the tidal currents for a longer period. The findings found that bait type did not impact on CPUE. In the starfish removal study, the combined effort of diver removals and trapping produced higher daily catch rates than the single treatments (i.e., diver removals only or trapping only), therefore was themost efficient removal method. The empirical information gathered from the field studies was then used to inform the SMAP and was accepted unanimously at the highest local/regional co-management level. Furthermore, through the findings I identified future research opportunities that would further close gaps in our knowledge around the best management approaches for a starfish outbreak. These included investigation into the predation impacts of P. regularis on mussel recruitment, identification of alternative restoration sites less susceptible to starfish predation pressures and investigation of potential drivers of the starfish outbreak.

Overall, the acceptance of the SMAP by local iwi/hapū and government authorities underscores the success of the collaborative approach. The collaborative process not only addresses the immediate concerns of starfish infestation but contributed to the broader goal of supporting kaitiakitanga (active guardianship) responsibilities and promoting Indigenous perspectives in marine management. This thesis demonstrates and recommends a new approach to starfish management in coastal marine areas using both marine science and mātauranga Māori understandings, practices and ethics, furthermore, it demonstrates the commitment to the inclusion of multiple knowledge systems and involvement of communities.

text: Pātangaroa: Co-developing management strategies for a starfish outbreak in Ōhiwa Harbour The management of marine environments often prioritises scientific information to address complex marine social-ecological issues. However, there is a wealth of learning to be gained from Indigenous people who have generated place-based intergenerational understandings and cultural ethics and practices. Consequently, Indigenous knowledge alongside science can offer better insights, holistic understanding, sustainable management strategies and greater sources of evidence. This research is located in Aotearoa New Zealand and engages in mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) alongside marine ecology as an appropriate method for contemporary marine research and management. The thesis study focused on Ōhiwa Harbour, aiming to co-develop a starfish management action plan (SMAP) with local iwi (tribe) Ngāti Awa and other affiliated iwi, district councils and regional council to address the overabundant starfish (species: Coscinasterias muricata and Patiriella regularis). By engaging in transdisciplinary research and collaborative decision-making, this study sought to bridge the gap between Indigenous knowledge and mainstream science, offering lessons for inclusive marine management practices.

To achieve this, I developed and prescribed a co-developed framework actively promoting a mixed-methods approach, inclusive of kaupapa Māori research methodologies, tikanga, participatory design, applied mātauranga ā iwi, quantitative marine scientific field methods and experimental study design. Through the collaborative process, I identified areas of appropriate research aims and methods. This included co-developing a novel starfish trapping methodology sensitive to local ecology and cultural values and an experimental starfish removal study to assist decision-makers in implementing an efficient and effective starfish removal regime as an approach to management.

Results from the field studies showed the efficacy of starfish traps is dependent on environmental conditions, physical characteristics and soaking time (the length of time the trap is left in the water). A soaking time of 48 h maintained the highest starfish catch per unit effort (CPUE) while minimising time to re-bait and reset traps. Observations also indicated an open trap design had less bycatch than a semi-enclosed box trap and could withstand the tidal currents for a longer period. The findings found that bait type did not impact on CPUE. In the starfish removal study, the combined effort of diver removals and trapping produced higher daily catch rates than the single treatments (i.e., diver removals only or trapping only), therefore was themost efficient removal method. The empirical information gathered from the field studies was then used to inform the SMAP and was accepted unanimously at the highest local/regional co-management level. Furthermore, through the findings I identified future research opportunities that would further close gaps in our knowledge around the best management approaches for a starfish outbreak. These included investigation into the predation impacts of P. regularis on mussel recruitment, identification of alternative restoration sites less susceptible to starfish predation pressures and investigation of potential drivers of the starfish outbreak.

Overall, the acceptance of the SMAP by local iwi/hapū and government authorities underscores the success of the collaborative approach. The collaborative process not only addresses the immediate concerns of starfish infestation but contributed to the broader goal of supporting kaitiakitanga (active guardianship) responsibilities and promoting Indigenous perspectives in marine management. This thesis demonstrates and recommends a new approach to starfish management in coastal marine areas using both marine science and mātauranga Māori understandings, practices and ethics, furthermore, it demonstrates the commitment to the inclusion of multiple knowledge systems and involvement of communities.

year: 2025-05