title: What Achilles did and the Tortoise wouldn't

authors: Legg, Catherine

subjects: logical form

abstract: This paper offers an expressivist account of logical form, arguing that in order to fully understand it one must examine what valid arguments make us do (or: what Achilles does and the Tortoise doesn’t, in Carroll’s famed fable). It introduces Charles Peirce’s distinction between symbols, indices and icons as three different kinds of signification whereby the sign picks out its object by learned convention, by unmediated indication, and by resemblance respectively. It is then argued that logical form is represented by the third, iconic, kind of sign. It is noted that icons uniquely enjoy partial identity between sign and object, and argued that this holds the key to Carroll’s puzzle. Finally, from this examination of sign-types metaphysical morals are drawn: that the traditional foes metaphysical realism and conventionalism constitute a false dichotomy, and that reality contains intriguingly inference-binding structures.

text: What Achilles did and the Tortoise wouldn't This paper offers an expressivist account of logical form, arguing that in order to fully understand it one must examine what valid arguments make us do (or: what Achilles does and the Tortoise doesn’t, in Carroll’s famed fable). It introduces Charles Peirce’s distinction between symbols, indices and icons as three different kinds of signification whereby the sign picks out its object by learned convention, by unmediated indication, and by resemblance respectively. It is then argued that logical form is represented by the third, iconic, kind of sign. It is noted that icons uniquely enjoy partial identity between sign and object, and argued that this holds the key to Carroll’s puzzle. Finally, from this examination of sign-types metaphysical morals are drawn: that the traditional foes metaphysical realism and conventionalism constitute a false dichotomy, and that reality contains intriguingly inference-binding structures.

year: 2012

title: To report or not to report? Understanding the impacts of reporting decisions for family and sexual violence in Aotearoa New Zealand

authors: Cording, Jacinta

abstract: Most victims of family violence (FV) and sexual violence (SV) do not report their criminal victimisation to police, but instead their experiences remain part of the ‘dark figure of crime’, or the proportion of actual crimes committed that remain officially unrecorded. The gap between victimisation and reported victimisation has a number of broad consequences for the policies and practices of government.
In this report we combine New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS) and other Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) data to consider two broad questions. First, what individual, community and offence-related factors predict non-reporting of FV and SV offences to Police (RQ1)? Second, is reporting or not associated with differences in wellbeing outcomes (RQ2)? Our analyses help to contextualise research and policy that relies on reported crime, and to identify areas where, as a result, reporting-associated policy responses may have potential shortcomings.

text: To report or not to report? Understanding the impacts of reporting decisions for family and sexual violence in Aotearoa New Zealand Most victims of family violence (FV) and sexual violence (SV) do not report their criminal victimisation to police, but instead their experiences remain part of the ‘dark figure of crime’, or the proportion of actual crimes committed that remain officially unrecorded. The gap between victimisation and reported victimisation has a number of broad consequences for the policies and practices of government.
In this report we combine New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS) and other Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) data to consider two broad questions. First, what individual, community and offence-related factors predict non-reporting of FV and SV offences to Police (RQ1)? Second, is reporting or not associated with differences in wellbeing outcomes (RQ2)? Our analyses help to contextualise research and policy that relies on reported crime, and to identify areas where, as a result, reporting-associated policy responses may have potential shortcomings.

year: 2025-04-02

title: Lake Rotokakahi water quality modelling

authors: Jones, Hannah Frances Emily

abstract: Lake Rotokakahi is an iwi-owned lake, administered by the Lake Rotokakahi Board of Control. The lake has a surface area of 4.4 km2, a mean depth of 17.5 m, and a catchment of 19.7 km2 of which most is in exotic forest (46.5%), with some pasture (27.8%) and regenerating native forest and scrub (25.7%). Lake Rotokakahi has only one permanent surface inflow and it is assumed that the lake must be predominantly groundwater fed. The lake outflow, Te Wairoa Stream, flows into Lake Tarawera. Monitoring indicates that water quality has recently declined in the lake, with a shift from a mesotrophic state in the 1990's, to currently being classified as eutrophic. Increased algal biomass has reduced water clarity and in May 2011 the first ever recorded algae bloom of a toxic cyanobacterium species resulted in a fish kill in Te Wairoa Stream. With the majority of the catchment in either exotic or native forest, the cause for the decline in water quality is unclear. However there is some concern that forestry harvesting operations may lead to increased surface runoff of sediment and associated phosphorus in ephemeral streams that feed into the lake. The objective of this study was to setup a water quality model for Lake Rotokakahi, which in the future may provide a decisionsupport tool for lake managers.
The model used, DYRESM-CAEDYM, is a one-dimensional (1D) coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that has been widely used in New Zealand and overseas. Methodology for deriving model forcing data (e.g. meteorological data, inflow volumes and nutrient loads), including the application of catchment and lake water balances, is described in this report. The catchment water balance indicates that groundwater and rainfall account for 37% and 42%, respectively, of the total inflow volume to the lake, with surface and ephemeral inflows contributing a smaller proportion (c. 20% combined). Furthermore, it appears that groundwater contributes a significant proportion (c. 60 - 70%) of the total nutrient loads, although surface and ephemeral inflows also contribute a significant proportion (34%) of the total phosphorus load. It should be noted that the catchment water balance is based on a very limited dataset, and therefore subject to significant uncertainty. 
We simulated the period July 2009 to June 2012 with DYRESM-CAEDYM. Model performance statistics indicated reasonable simulation of water quality for the calibration period, but did not satisfactorily capture the magnitude and dynamics of chlorophyll a and some nutrient species over an independent model validation period. There may be a number of reasons for the poor model performance over the validation period. For example, it may be that zooplankton and/or freshwater mussels (kakahi), which were not included in the model configuration, may exert significant grazing pressure on the phytoplankton populations at certain times. Furthermore, the significant uncertainty in the catchment water and nutrient loads most likely will have affected model performance. Nutrient concentrations are routinely monitored only in the surface inflow. There are no measurements of nutrient and sediment loads in ephemeral streams, and there is very limited data on groundwater nutrient concentrations.
In its current form, the DYRESM-CAEDYM model is not suitable for scenario testing of lake management options. It is recommended that effort is directed at quantification of ephemeral and groundwater inflows and their associated nutrient and (particularly for ephemeral inflows) sediment loads. This may be particularly important for ephemeral inflows located close to the lake that may be influenced by forestry harvesting operations. Recent increases in measured total phosphorus and phosphate concentrations in the surface inflow and in the lake, combined with the degradation of water quality that has already occurred over the last 20 years, provides further impetus for addressing this critical information gap. Were new data to  become available, opportunities exist for improving the performance of the current model and for developing a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model (e.g. ELCOM-CAEDYM) with representation of kakahi and/or zooplankton, which may be able to resolve questions pertinent to the functioning of the lake, and to lake and catchment management.

text: Lake Rotokakahi water quality modelling Lake Rotokakahi is an iwi-owned lake, administered by the Lake Rotokakahi Board of Control. The lake has a surface area of 4.4 km2, a mean depth of 17.5 m, and a catchment of 19.7 km2 of which most is in exotic forest (46.5%), with some pasture (27.8%) and regenerating native forest and scrub (25.7%). Lake Rotokakahi has only one permanent surface inflow and it is assumed that the lake must be predominantly groundwater fed. The lake outflow, Te Wairoa Stream, flows into Lake Tarawera. Monitoring indicates that water quality has recently declined in the lake, with a shift from a mesotrophic state in the 1990's, to currently being classified as eutrophic. Increased algal biomass has reduced water clarity and in May 2011 the first ever recorded algae bloom of a toxic cyanobacterium species resulted in a fish kill in Te Wairoa Stream. With the majority of the catchment in either exotic or native forest, the cause for the decline in water quality is unclear. However there is some concern that forestry harvesting operations may lead to increased surface runoff of sediment and associated phosphorus in ephemeral streams that feed into the lake. The objective of this study was to setup a water quality model for Lake Rotokakahi, which in the future may provide a decisionsupport tool for lake managers.
The model used, DYRESM-CAEDYM, is a one-dimensional (1D) coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that has been widely used in New Zealand and overseas. Methodology for deriving model forcing data (e.g. meteorological data, inflow volumes and nutrient loads), including the application of catchment and lake water balances, is described in this report. The catchment water balance indicates that groundwater and rainfall account for 37% and 42%, respectively, of the total inflow volume to the lake, with surface and ephemeral inflows contributing a smaller proportion (c. 20% combined). Furthermore, it appears that groundwater contributes a significant proportion (c. 60 - 70%) of the total nutrient loads, although surface and ephemeral inflows also contribute a significant proportion (34%) of the total phosphorus load. It should be noted that the catchment water balance is based on a very limited dataset, and therefore subject to significant uncertainty. 
We simulated the period July 2009 to June 2012 with DYRESM-CAEDYM. Model performance statistics indicated reasonable simulation of water quality for the calibration period, but did not satisfactorily capture the magnitude and dynamics of chlorophyll a and some nutrient species over an independent model validation period. There may be a number of reasons for the poor model performance over the validation period. For example, it may be that zooplankton and/or freshwater mussels (kakahi), which were not included in the model configuration, may exert significant grazing pressure on the phytoplankton populations at certain times. Furthermore, the significant uncertainty in the catchment water and nutrient loads most likely will have affected model performance. Nutrient concentrations are routinely monitored only in the surface inflow. There are no measurements of nutrient and sediment loads in ephemeral streams, and there is very limited data on groundwater nutrient concentrations.
In its current form, the DYRESM-CAEDYM model is not suitable for scenario testing of lake management options. It is recommended that effort is directed at quantification of ephemeral and groundwater inflows and their associated nutrient and (particularly for ephemeral inflows) sediment loads. This may be particularly important for ephemeral inflows located close to the lake that may be influenced by forestry harvesting operations. Recent increases in measured total phosphorus and phosphate concentrations in the surface inflow and in the lake, combined with the degradation of water quality that has already occurred over the last 20 years, provides further impetus for addressing this critical information gap. Were new data to  become available, opportunities exist for improving the performance of the current model and for developing a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model (e.g. ELCOM-CAEDYM) with representation of kakahi and/or zooplankton, which may be able to resolve questions pertinent to the functioning of the lake, and to lake and catchment management.

year: 2014