title: Inclusive education for children and young people with disabilities in Uzbekistan: The perspectives and experiences of key players

authors: Nam, Galina

subjects: Inclusive education

abstract: This thesis explored the educational conditions for children with disabilities in Uzbekistan and the current development stage of inclusive education there. Of particular interest was how various groups perceived and understood the concept of inclusive education, what they saw as the critical issues in introducing inclusive practices, and how their experiences informed its better provision. These groups included parents of children with disabilities, teachers in general and specialised schools, non-governmental disability organisations (NGOs), and the government. The research is of importance as little has been written about inclusive education in Uzbekistan. It offers a platform for academics, policy-makers, and practitioners to further the agenda of equity in education in and beyond this setting through research, policy, and practice. 
The research used phenomenology as a research methodology to explore the experiences and perspectives of the participants. Within this study, the social model of disability and the human rights treaties were utilised as a theoretical framework. A mixed-methods approach was applied to collect data. Semi-structured interviews were employed for parents, teachers, and government officials and an on-line questionnaire was completed by representatives of non-governmental bodies. In total, 23 interviews were conducted and six questionnaire responses were received.  
The findings from the study suggest that inclusive education was mainly perceived as providing equal opportunity for children with disabilities to study in neighbourhood general schools, in age-appropriate classes, and with the necessary support to develop their skills and realise their potential. Children’s social development was considered by many participants to be the most important aspect of inclusion. Yet, children with intellectual disabilities were considered as unsuitable to attend general schools. 
Multiple challenges in the enactment of inclusive education were identified, such as the absence of individualised support in inclusive classrooms that made parents function as teacher aides, a lack of qualified teachers and their poor working conditions, inadequate provision of infrastructure, the absence of enabling legislation on inclusive education, and strong attitudinal barriers. Parental involvement was considered to be one of the most important prerequisites for successful inclusion. Nevertheless, teachers claimed that there was little effective collaboration between schools and parents due to a lack of parental responsibility for the lives and education of their children. The social partnership in disability-inclusive development between the government and NGOs appeared not to have been established yet, although NGOs have enough expertise and willingness to contribute to inclusion. 
Four major implications emerged from the findings of the study. First, they suggest that inclusive education addresses the diverse needs of all students, not only those who have disabilities. Within a disability context, as stated by the human rights instruments, inclusive schools should accommodate students regardless of their conditions. They do not exclude students with intellectual disabilities. Second, the study indicates that teachers of mainstream schools, who participated in the study, feel more professionally prepared to practice inclusion when provided with in-service training and adequate working conditions, such as small size classes and a higher salary. Third, the study suggests that the capacity of parents of children with disabilities to cope with disability-related issues can be increased if they are provided with support services and a better financial provision to cover a disability cost. Finally, NGOs support children with disabilities and their families and promote inclusion more effectively when involved in decision-making processes and given more trust and freedom with organising and conducting their activities. 
On this basis, recommendations for academics, researchers, and policy-makers were developed. Recommendations for academics and researchers primarily include supporting disability research and communicating research findings with policy-makers. Recommendations for policy-makers, in turn, outline the ways of how they could support children with disabilities, their parents, teachers, and non-governmental agencies. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations for further research. It would be useful to explore the inclusion of children with intellectual disabilities in a general school system in Uzbekistan, the transition of students with disabilities from high school or college to the workforce, and the impact of cultural beliefs about disability on social and educational inclusion.

text: Inclusive education for children and young people with disabilities in Uzbekistan: The perspectives and experiences of key players This thesis explored the educational conditions for children with disabilities in Uzbekistan and the current development stage of inclusive education there. Of particular interest was how various groups perceived and understood the concept of inclusive education, what they saw as the critical issues in introducing inclusive practices, and how their experiences informed its better provision. These groups included parents of children with disabilities, teachers in general and specialised schools, non-governmental disability organisations (NGOs), and the government. The research is of importance as little has been written about inclusive education in Uzbekistan. It offers a platform for academics, policy-makers, and practitioners to further the agenda of equity in education in and beyond this setting through research, policy, and practice. 
The research used phenomenology as a research methodology to explore the experiences and perspectives of the participants. Within this study, the social model of disability and the human rights treaties were utilised as a theoretical framework. A mixed-methods approach was applied to collect data. Semi-structured interviews were employed for parents, teachers, and government officials and an on-line questionnaire was completed by representatives of non-governmental bodies. In total, 23 interviews were conducted and six questionnaire responses were received.  
The findings from the study suggest that inclusive education was mainly perceived as providing equal opportunity for children with disabilities to study in neighbourhood general schools, in age-appropriate classes, and with the necessary support to develop their skills and realise their potential. Children’s social development was considered by many participants to be the most important aspect of inclusion. Yet, children with intellectual disabilities were considered as unsuitable to attend general schools. 
Multiple challenges in the enactment of inclusive education were identified, such as the absence of individualised support in inclusive classrooms that made parents function as teacher aides, a lack of qualified teachers and their poor working conditions, inadequate provision of infrastructure, the absence of enabling legislation on inclusive education, and strong attitudinal barriers. Parental involvement was considered to be one of the most important prerequisites for successful inclusion. Nevertheless, teachers claimed that there was little effective collaboration between schools and parents due to a lack of parental responsibility for the lives and education of their children. The social partnership in disability-inclusive development between the government and NGOs appeared not to have been established yet, although NGOs have enough expertise and willingness to contribute to inclusion. 
Four major implications emerged from the findings of the study. First, they suggest that inclusive education addresses the diverse needs of all students, not only those who have disabilities. Within a disability context, as stated by the human rights instruments, inclusive schools should accommodate students regardless of their conditions. They do not exclude students with intellectual disabilities. Second, the study indicates that teachers of mainstream schools, who participated in the study, feel more professionally prepared to practice inclusion when provided with in-service training and adequate working conditions, such as small size classes and a higher salary. Third, the study suggests that the capacity of parents of children with disabilities to cope with disability-related issues can be increased if they are provided with support services and a better financial provision to cover a disability cost. Finally, NGOs support children with disabilities and their families and promote inclusion more effectively when involved in decision-making processes and given more trust and freedom with organising and conducting their activities. 
On this basis, recommendations for academics, researchers, and policy-makers were developed. Recommendations for academics and researchers primarily include supporting disability research and communicating research findings with policy-makers. Recommendations for policy-makers, in turn, outline the ways of how they could support children with disabilities, their parents, teachers, and non-governmental agencies. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations for further research. It would be useful to explore the inclusion of children with intellectual disabilities in a general school system in Uzbekistan, the transition of students with disabilities from high school or college to the workforce, and the impact of cultural beliefs about disability on social and educational inclusion.

year: 2021

title: Lake level forecasting for hydro power operation in the Clutha catchment

authors: Waters, Amy

abstract: The Clutha River is New Zealand’s largest river, located within New Zealand’s largest catchment. The river runs through two hydro-power stations, the Clyde Dam and downstream the Roxburgh Dam, together providing around 10% of New Zealand’s electrical energy. Over 80% of the river flow at Clyde Dam is sourced from the outflow of three large lakes further up in the catchment, Lake Wanaka, Lake Wakatipu and Lake Hāwea. To efficiently operate the hydro-scheme the operator, Contact Energy, requires hourly forecast of the inflows into the head-pond lake of the Clyde Dam, Lake Dunstan. The current model is subject to some degree of predictive error and it has been identified that improving the accuracy of the forecast levels of Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu may reduce the error of the inflow model.
This project develops an empirical model for estimating the lake level changes, with a lead-time from 1 hour out to 48 hours, in Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu, using only a few independent variables. The empirical model was developed, calibrated, and first evaluated using recorded rainfall and temperature data (hindcast validation). The model was then revaluated using forecast rainfall and temperature data to gain an understanding of how the model will perform during operation (forecast validation). 
The empirical model has two main components, the first component estimates the lake level recession rates as a function of current lake level. The second component estimates the lake rise resulting from recent rainfall in the catchment, the model uses an inverse Gaussian distribution to represent the lake level rise hydrograph form resulting from recent effective rainfall in the catchment. Average catchment temperature is used as a proxy for estimating the proportion of rainfall contributing to lake level rise. 
During the hindcast validation the model performed reasonably well, closely estimating the time distribution of positive lake level changes and lake level recessions. For Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values for each season, at lead-time of 48 hours, had minimal change from the calibration index values, apart from in spring where the values notably dropped. 

To perform the forecast validation, the forecast rainfall was first correlated to recorded rainfall, for which the model was calibrated. The use of weather-based forecasts of rainfall and temperature introduced a significant amount of error. While most of the time the forecast rainfall accurately predicted the presence of rainfall, the forecast rainfall depth was subject to a large error. This transferred through to the model output, with the model largely accurately predicting if the lake level will rise or fall but lost accuracy predicting the magnitude of lake level rises. 
For the forecast validation the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values for each season, at a lead-time of 48 hours, all dropped, apart from winter, when compared to the hindcast calibration fits. Again, spring performed the worst for both lakes. The model tended to underpredict most lake levels rises, with the extent of underprediction increasing with increasing predicted lake level rise magnitudes. The quality of the forecast validation of the model is subject to a level of uncertainty itself. This is because the time period of the validation had low rainfall, with relatively few lake level rise events. 
The model was shown to be limited by the assumption being made by the model that rain gauge rainfall is representative of the spatially average catchment rainfall. This is most often not the case and leads to errors in the model outputs. It may be possible to improve the predictive ability of the model by sourcing rainfall data more representative of the spatially average catchment rainfall. The model will also likely be improved by performing a recalibration using forecast data, this is highly recommended once more data becomes available.
While not perfect, as with any hydrological model, the model has shown to be able to reasonably forecast lake level changes in an operational situation, when considering the uncertainties associated with forecast rainfall and rain gauge data.

text: Lake level forecasting for hydro power operation in the Clutha catchment The Clutha River is New Zealand’s largest river, located within New Zealand’s largest catchment. The river runs through two hydro-power stations, the Clyde Dam and downstream the Roxburgh Dam, together providing around 10% of New Zealand’s electrical energy. Over 80% of the river flow at Clyde Dam is sourced from the outflow of three large lakes further up in the catchment, Lake Wanaka, Lake Wakatipu and Lake Hāwea. To efficiently operate the hydro-scheme the operator, Contact Energy, requires hourly forecast of the inflows into the head-pond lake of the Clyde Dam, Lake Dunstan. The current model is subject to some degree of predictive error and it has been identified that improving the accuracy of the forecast levels of Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu may reduce the error of the inflow model.
This project develops an empirical model for estimating the lake level changes, with a lead-time from 1 hour out to 48 hours, in Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu, using only a few independent variables. The empirical model was developed, calibrated, and first evaluated using recorded rainfall and temperature data (hindcast validation). The model was then revaluated using forecast rainfall and temperature data to gain an understanding of how the model will perform during operation (forecast validation). 
The empirical model has two main components, the first component estimates the lake level recession rates as a function of current lake level. The second component estimates the lake rise resulting from recent rainfall in the catchment, the model uses an inverse Gaussian distribution to represent the lake level rise hydrograph form resulting from recent effective rainfall in the catchment. Average catchment temperature is used as a proxy for estimating the proportion of rainfall contributing to lake level rise. 
During the hindcast validation the model performed reasonably well, closely estimating the time distribution of positive lake level changes and lake level recessions. For Lakes Wanaka and Wakatipu, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values for each season, at lead-time of 48 hours, had minimal change from the calibration index values, apart from in spring where the values notably dropped. 

To perform the forecast validation, the forecast rainfall was first correlated to recorded rainfall, for which the model was calibrated. The use of weather-based forecasts of rainfall and temperature introduced a significant amount of error. While most of the time the forecast rainfall accurately predicted the presence of rainfall, the forecast rainfall depth was subject to a large error. This transferred through to the model output, with the model largely accurately predicting if the lake level will rise or fall but lost accuracy predicting the magnitude of lake level rises. 
For the forecast validation the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values for each season, at a lead-time of 48 hours, all dropped, apart from winter, when compared to the hindcast calibration fits. Again, spring performed the worst for both lakes. The model tended to underpredict most lake levels rises, with the extent of underprediction increasing with increasing predicted lake level rise magnitudes. The quality of the forecast validation of the model is subject to a level of uncertainty itself. This is because the time period of the validation had low rainfall, with relatively few lake level rise events. 
The model was shown to be limited by the assumption being made by the model that rain gauge rainfall is representative of the spatially average catchment rainfall. This is most often not the case and leads to errors in the model outputs. It may be possible to improve the predictive ability of the model by sourcing rainfall data more representative of the spatially average catchment rainfall. The model will also likely be improved by performing a recalibration using forecast data, this is highly recommended once more data becomes available.
While not perfect, as with any hydrological model, the model has shown to be able to reasonably forecast lake level changes in an operational situation, when considering the uncertainties associated with forecast rainfall and rain gauge data.

year: 2019

title: Hoera Te Mimiha

authors: Hart, Philip

abstract: Hoera Te Mimiha was a rangatira of Ngati Koi, an inferior hapu to Ngati Tamatera, and had affiliations to other hapu. Although to Pakeha he was a mere labourer, in Maori society in Ohinemuri in the 1870s and 1880s he was a leading figure. Details have been traced of his whakapapa, his wider family, and especially his children, one of whom married Hone Werahiko. 
Mimiha spent much time in the Maori Land Court trying to prove his entitlement to be included as an owner of several blocks of land, not always successfully, for he could not prove some of his cases either through ancestry or occupation. Other rangatira with superior whakapapa were able to show the weaknesses of some of his claims, forcing him into giving evasive answers to cross-examination. His evidence did reveal what land he had occupied and farmed.
Mimiha willingly sold land, including his interest in the Ohinemuri goldfield (the boundaries of which he had pointed out to surveyors), and obtained a good income, for a time. Being interested in mining from the early 1870s onwards, he was one of the few Maori willing to descend a shaft at Thames, an experience that encouraged him to push for opening Ohinemuri to mining, even, it seemed, if that endangered Maori control of their land. Having prospected at Karangahake before it was opened to mining in 1875, he participated in this rush and subsequently in the Te Aroha one of 1880, having interests in claims at all three portions of the latter field. When his daughter’s partner was murdered at Te Aroha, he calmed Maori anger, once again winning the gratitude of Pakeha.
Because of selling much of his land, he struggled financially, although unlike some Maori he did not drink his money away. Cutting off part of the ear of a Pakeha accused of raping his wife resulted in several court cases marked by dubious evidence presented by both sides. After being imprisoned for perjury, efforts by Pakeha to have his conviction reviewed resulted in his being judged to have been the only witness not to have lied to the court, but this sordid affair blackened his character.

text: Hoera Te Mimiha Hoera Te Mimiha was a rangatira of Ngati Koi, an inferior hapu to Ngati Tamatera, and had affiliations to other hapu. Although to Pakeha he was a mere labourer, in Maori society in Ohinemuri in the 1870s and 1880s he was a leading figure. Details have been traced of his whakapapa, his wider family, and especially his children, one of whom married Hone Werahiko. 
Mimiha spent much time in the Maori Land Court trying to prove his entitlement to be included as an owner of several blocks of land, not always successfully, for he could not prove some of his cases either through ancestry or occupation. Other rangatira with superior whakapapa were able to show the weaknesses of some of his claims, forcing him into giving evasive answers to cross-examination. His evidence did reveal what land he had occupied and farmed.
Mimiha willingly sold land, including his interest in the Ohinemuri goldfield (the boundaries of which he had pointed out to surveyors), and obtained a good income, for a time. Being interested in mining from the early 1870s onwards, he was one of the few Maori willing to descend a shaft at Thames, an experience that encouraged him to push for opening Ohinemuri to mining, even, it seemed, if that endangered Maori control of their land. Having prospected at Karangahake before it was opened to mining in 1875, he participated in this rush and subsequently in the Te Aroha one of 1880, having interests in claims at all three portions of the latter field. When his daughter’s partner was murdered at Te Aroha, he calmed Maori anger, once again winning the gratitude of Pakeha.
Because of selling much of his land, he struggled financially, although unlike some Maori he did not drink his money away. Cutting off part of the ear of a Pakeha accused of raping his wife resulted in several court cases marked by dubious evidence presented by both sides. After being imprisoned for perjury, efforts by Pakeha to have his conviction reviewed resulted in his being judged to have been the only witness not to have lied to the court, but this sordid affair blackened his character.

year: 2016