title: The political economy of intrastate armed conflicts: The feasibility hypothesis in the case of Pakistan

authors: Maqbool, Muhammad Yahhya

subjects: political science

abstract: This thesis examines the structural conditions that make intrastate armed conflict feasible in Pakistan. While much of the existing literature attributes Pakistan’s internal conflicts to ideology, identity, or historical grievances, this study argues that such explanations account for the framing and mobilisation of conflict but fail to explain why violence clusters in specific regions despite similar grievances elsewhere, and why multiple groups with varied motivations operate from the same locations. Addressing this conceptual gap, the thesis employs the feasibility hypothesis as its theoretical lens, which posits that sustained rebellion becomes possible where it is operationally and economically viable.
The central research question asks whether operational and economic feasibility better explains Pakistan’s conflict dynamics than ideational or grievance-based accounts. The study adopts a mixed-methods design. The quantitative analysis uses district-level cross-sectional data to test the statistical association of six independent variables (terrain ruggedness, road density, border proximity, human development, poverty, and natural resources) with conflict intensity. This is complemented by qualitative analysis of secondary literature, policy reports, and historical narratives to interpret and contextualise the empirical results.
The findings confirm that rugged terrain, proximity to porous borders (especially with Afghanistan and Iran), and low human development are significantly associated with higher conflict intensity. By contrast, poverty and road density show weak or insignificant effects, while natural resources influence conflict primarily through enabling illicit economies. These results support the argument that intrastate armed conflict persists where structural conditions make rebellion operationally and economically feasible.
Theoretically, the study localises and refines the feasibility hypothesis for sub-national analysis using improved operational proxies. Methodologically, it contributes through a mixed-methods framework linking quantitative modelling and contextual qualitative interpretation. Policy-wise, it recommends strengthening border management, improving local governance, and investing in human development to mitigate structural enablers of violence. The findings advance comparative research on the political economy of conflict by demonstrating how structural feasibility, rather than ideology alone, shapes the geography of rebellion in fragile states.

text: The political economy of intrastate armed conflicts: The feasibility hypothesis in the case of Pakistan This thesis examines the structural conditions that make intrastate armed conflict feasible in Pakistan. While much of the existing literature attributes Pakistan’s internal conflicts to ideology, identity, or historical grievances, this study argues that such explanations account for the framing and mobilisation of conflict but fail to explain why violence clusters in specific regions despite similar grievances elsewhere, and why multiple groups with varied motivations operate from the same locations. Addressing this conceptual gap, the thesis employs the feasibility hypothesis as its theoretical lens, which posits that sustained rebellion becomes possible where it is operationally and economically viable.
The central research question asks whether operational and economic feasibility better explains Pakistan’s conflict dynamics than ideational or grievance-based accounts. The study adopts a mixed-methods design. The quantitative analysis uses district-level cross-sectional data to test the statistical association of six independent variables (terrain ruggedness, road density, border proximity, human development, poverty, and natural resources) with conflict intensity. This is complemented by qualitative analysis of secondary literature, policy reports, and historical narratives to interpret and contextualise the empirical results.
The findings confirm that rugged terrain, proximity to porous borders (especially with Afghanistan and Iran), and low human development are significantly associated with higher conflict intensity. By contrast, poverty and road density show weak or insignificant effects, while natural resources influence conflict primarily through enabling illicit economies. These results support the argument that intrastate armed conflict persists where structural conditions make rebellion operationally and economically feasible.
Theoretically, the study localises and refines the feasibility hypothesis for sub-national analysis using improved operational proxies. Methodologically, it contributes through a mixed-methods framework linking quantitative modelling and contextual qualitative interpretation. Policy-wise, it recommends strengthening border management, improving local governance, and investing in human development to mitigate structural enablers of violence. The findings advance comparative research on the political economy of conflict by demonstrating how structural feasibility, rather than ideology alone, shapes the geography of rebellion in fragile states.

year: 2025-10-22

title: Assessing effects of changes to nutrient loads on Lake Tarawera water quality: Model simulations for 2010 to 2020

authors: Abell, Jonathan Michael

abstract: Lake Tarawera is a nationally significant lake that is highly valued by tangata whenua, local residents and the regional community. Monitoring shows that lake water quality does not presently meet the target, based on a Trophic Level Index (TLI) value of 2.6 identified in the Tarawera Lakes Restoration Plan1. Between 2010 and 2020 annual observed TLI was frequently as high as 2.9. Managing nutrient loads to the lake is necessary to achieve desired lake water quality and interim nutrient reduction targets have been established. An objective of this study was to evaluate these targets by improving estimates of ‘sustainable nutrient loads’, which are the external loads of nitrogen and phosphorus that would result in meeting the TLI target.

text: Assessing effects of changes to nutrient loads on Lake Tarawera water quality: Model simulations for 2010 to 2020 Lake Tarawera is a nationally significant lake that is highly valued by tangata whenua, local residents and the regional community. Monitoring shows that lake water quality does not presently meet the target, based on a Trophic Level Index (TLI) value of 2.6 identified in the Tarawera Lakes Restoration Plan1. Between 2010 and 2020 annual observed TLI was frequently as high as 2.9. Managing nutrient loads to the lake is necessary to achieve desired lake water quality and interim nutrient reduction targets have been established. An objective of this study was to evaluate these targets by improving estimates of ‘sustainable nutrient loads’, which are the external loads of nitrogen and phosphorus that would result in meeting the TLI target.

year: 2020-12

title: Maori women and research: Researching ourselves

authors: Te Awekotuku, Ngahuia

subjects: Maori

abstract: This was the closing keynote address at the Student Symposium organized by the Maori &
Psychology Research Unit at the University of Waikato, Hamilton in August 1999. Most of the
people attending were Maori, and female, and I spoke to, for, and about us. The speech was
transcribed from an oral address with transparencies, and has been revised here for this
publication.

text: Maori women and research: Researching ourselves This was the closing keynote address at the Student Symposium organized by the Maori &
Psychology Research Unit at the University of Waikato, Hamilton in August 1999. Most of the
people attending were Maori, and female, and I spoke to, for, and about us. The speech was
transcribed from an oral address with transparencies, and has been revised here for this
publication.

year: 1999