title: Three essays on stated choice experiments  for nonmarket valuation of landslide protection

authors: Mattea, Stefania

subjects: choice experiments

abstract: This thesis consists of three essays that improve the general understanding of the public demand for safety programmes in the context of natural hazards. With the growing importance of this topic around the world, this study provides a practical and methodological contribution to the literature on Environmental Economics and Policy, especially local policy.
In particular, this research examines people’s preferences and their willingness-to-pay for landslide mitigation programmes. The primary aim is to assess how the residents of and visitors to a mountain valley in the Alps value and trade off the multiple attributes of protection programmes for landslide risk reduction by applying Discrete Choice Modelling methodology. To address the current needs of local decision-makers, the investigation of the determinants of preference heterogeneity is the central theme of the research. The study is based on a panel choice dataset created from a Discrete Choice Experiment, based on full ranking, administered in person by the author to 250 respondents in the Boite Valley, Italy.
The first essay examines the stability of preferences, investigating to what extent additional information has an impact on estimated values. Specifically, it studies whether respondents adjust their preferences based on scientific information provided on one specific attribute. A mixed logit model in willingness-to-pay space is implemented to account for preference heterogeneity. The findings suggest that respondents perceive the existing protection measures as insufficient. The provision of information affects only the attribute subject to additional information and the consideration of the current status of protection. Preferences for the other attributes remained stable. Preliminary evidence of spatial heterogeneity is also detected.
The second essay addresses the issue of the stability of parameter estimates obtained through simulation using choice models with latent variables. Specifically, it analyses the stability of the coefficients to the number of simulation draws and the increasing number of latent variables. Three Random Parameter logit models with respectively one, two and three latent variables are fitted with six sets of increased numbers of draws. The landslide risk perceptions of respondents are modelled as latent sources of heterogeneity in the consideration of the riskiest scenario. Overall, the results show very stable estimates for the attributes’ coefficients but not for the latent variables. Thus, increasing the complexity by adding more latent factors into the model implies the necessity of additional draws in the simulation process to ensure empirical identification. The results also show how preferences are strongly related to the underlying perceptions of own mortality risk due to landslides and risk severity.
The third essay explores multiple sources of preference heterogeneity, accounting for its spatial determinants. It emerges that the inclusion of more observables allows for a better segmentation of the policy based on respondents’ and municipalities’ characteristics. The findings show the importance of distinct spatial effects, such as geographical characteristics, spatial error components for road tracts and site-specific choice-sets, with relevant insights into the priority of intervention. In addition, residual unobserved heterogeneity is analysed at a higher hierarchical scale using spatial models at the municipality level.
Overall, the empirical results of this thesis provide important policy implications for local decision-makers in charge of public safety, given the relevant information on the distributional effects of protection across different groups of beneficiaries.

text: Three essays on stated choice experiments  for nonmarket valuation of landslide protection This thesis consists of three essays that improve the general understanding of the public demand for safety programmes in the context of natural hazards. With the growing importance of this topic around the world, this study provides a practical and methodological contribution to the literature on Environmental Economics and Policy, especially local policy.
In particular, this research examines people’s preferences and their willingness-to-pay for landslide mitigation programmes. The primary aim is to assess how the residents of and visitors to a mountain valley in the Alps value and trade off the multiple attributes of protection programmes for landslide risk reduction by applying Discrete Choice Modelling methodology. To address the current needs of local decision-makers, the investigation of the determinants of preference heterogeneity is the central theme of the research. The study is based on a panel choice dataset created from a Discrete Choice Experiment, based on full ranking, administered in person by the author to 250 respondents in the Boite Valley, Italy.
The first essay examines the stability of preferences, investigating to what extent additional information has an impact on estimated values. Specifically, it studies whether respondents adjust their preferences based on scientific information provided on one specific attribute. A mixed logit model in willingness-to-pay space is implemented to account for preference heterogeneity. The findings suggest that respondents perceive the existing protection measures as insufficient. The provision of information affects only the attribute subject to additional information and the consideration of the current status of protection. Preferences for the other attributes remained stable. Preliminary evidence of spatial heterogeneity is also detected.
The second essay addresses the issue of the stability of parameter estimates obtained through simulation using choice models with latent variables. Specifically, it analyses the stability of the coefficients to the number of simulation draws and the increasing number of latent variables. Three Random Parameter logit models with respectively one, two and three latent variables are fitted with six sets of increased numbers of draws. The landslide risk perceptions of respondents are modelled as latent sources of heterogeneity in the consideration of the riskiest scenario. Overall, the results show very stable estimates for the attributes’ coefficients but not for the latent variables. Thus, increasing the complexity by adding more latent factors into the model implies the necessity of additional draws in the simulation process to ensure empirical identification. The results also show how preferences are strongly related to the underlying perceptions of own mortality risk due to landslides and risk severity.
The third essay explores multiple sources of preference heterogeneity, accounting for its spatial determinants. It emerges that the inclusion of more observables allows for a better segmentation of the policy based on respondents’ and municipalities’ characteristics. The findings show the importance of distinct spatial effects, such as geographical characteristics, spatial error components for road tracts and site-specific choice-sets, with relevant insights into the priority of intervention. In addition, residual unobserved heterogeneity is analysed at a higher hierarchical scale using spatial models at the municipality level.
Overall, the empirical results of this thesis provide important policy implications for local decision-makers in charge of public safety, given the relevant information on the distributional effects of protection across different groups of beneficiaries.

year: 2018

title: Computer concepts without computers: a first course in computer science

authors: Holmes, Geoffrey

subjects: computer science

abstract: While some institutions seek to make CS1 curricula more enjoyable by incorporating specialised educational software [1] or by setting more enjoyable programming assignments [2], we have joined the growing number of Computer Science departments that seek to improve the quality of the CS1 experience by focusing student attention away from the computer monitor [3,4]. Sophisticated computing concepts usually reserved for senior level courses are presented in a popular science manner, and given equal time alongside the essential introductory programming material. By exposing students to a broad range of specific computational problems we endeavour to make the introductory course more interesting and enjoyable, and instill in students a sense of vision for areas they might specialise in as computing majors.

text: Computer concepts without computers: a first course in computer science While some institutions seek to make CS1 curricula more enjoyable by incorporating specialised educational software [1] or by setting more enjoyable programming assignments [2], we have joined the growing number of Computer Science departments that seek to improve the quality of the CS1 experience by focusing student attention away from the computer monitor [3,4]. Sophisticated computing concepts usually reserved for senior level courses are presented in a popular science manner, and given equal time alongside the essential introductory programming material. By exposing students to a broad range of specific computational problems we endeavour to make the introductory course more interesting and enjoyable, and instill in students a sense of vision for areas they might specialise in as computing majors.

year: 1997-02

title: Reducing our prison population: Past failures and new approaches

authors: Tauri, Juan Marcellus

abstract: Earlier this year the Minister of Justice, Andrew Little announced the latest in a long line of reviews, taxpayer-funded summits and inter-agency, ‘wholeof-government’ projects stretching back to the late-1980s, all aimed in some form or other, at making the criminal justice system more ‘safe’ and ‘effective’. Officially launched at a summit held in Porirua in August 2018, the aim of the latest review is to reduce New Zealand’s prison muster by 30% over the next 15 years. And unsurprisingly, given our significant over-representation in prisons, a specific focus of the review is on identifying ways to significantly reduce Māori over-representation in the prison population. This commentary represents a modest offering in response to the current government’s stated aim of making the justice system safer and more effective, and to reduce the prison muster, and it is based on two core arguments, namely that successive governments and the public service have failed to reduce offending and imprisonment and that successful solutions require community empowerment and government/public service accountability.

text: Reducing our prison population: Past failures and new approaches Earlier this year the Minister of Justice, Andrew Little announced the latest in a long line of reviews, taxpayer-funded summits and inter-agency, ‘wholeof-government’ projects stretching back to the late-1980s, all aimed in some form or other, at making the criminal justice system more ‘safe’ and ‘effective’. Officially launched at a summit held in Porirua in August 2018, the aim of the latest review is to reduce New Zealand’s prison muster by 30% over the next 15 years. And unsurprisingly, given our significant over-representation in prisons, a specific focus of the review is on identifying ways to significantly reduce Māori over-representation in the prison population. This commentary represents a modest offering in response to the current government’s stated aim of making the justice system safer and more effective, and to reduce the prison muster, and it is based on two core arguments, namely that successive governments and the public service have failed to reduce offending and imprisonment and that successful solutions require community empowerment and government/public service accountability.

year: 2019