title: Risk assessment for family violence aggressors in Aotearoa New Zealand

authors: Jolliffe Simpson, Apriel D.

subjects: Family violence

abstract: In recent decades Family Violence (FV) researchers have developed risk assessment instruments to enable practitioners to identify the people who are most likely to commit FV in the future, and the families who are most likely to experience ongoing harm. Indeed, risk assessments have become a standard procedure for FV practitioners who are frequently required to make decisions with potential ramifications for families’ safety and wellbeing. Yet, despite considerable developments in risk assessment research and practice, risk assessment instruments have limitations that curb their value to FV practice. In addition, such instruments should be empirically validated, but there is limited evidence for the validity of risk assessment instruments used by agencies that respond to FV in Aotearoa New Zealand. Therefore, in this thesis, we examined the risk assessment procedures that New Zealand Police and the Integrated Safety Response (ISR) used for FV, with the purpose of contributing to the evidence base about risk assessment for FV in New Zealand and identifying strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities for improvement.
This thesis contains three manuscripts either published in or submitted to peer-reviewed academic journals; as well as supplementary chapters that support, extend, and integrate the research findings. In the first manuscript, we examined the predictive validity of risk categories from the Dynamic Risk Assessment for family violence (DYRA) and Static Assessment of Family Violence Recidivism (SAFVR)—the two risk assessment instruments that New Zealand Police use when responding to FV cases—for a sample of 2,115 cases with FV episodes reported to police in Waikato and parts of Canterbury between 1 November – 9 December 2018 (1,817 of which had complete risk categories). We examined the instruments’ ability to predict recurrence (i.e., a further FV-related call for police service) at three intervals (3 days, 12 weeks, and 24 weeks), and found both instruments had a poor ability to discriminate between aggressors who had a recurrence and those who did not, with the SAFVR outperforming the DYRA, and the DYRA performing especially poorly for non-intimate partner cases, and aggressors who were Māori or women. 
In the second manuscript, we explored the risk assessments that Integrated Safety Response (ISR) triage team members conducted for a sub-sample of 842 cases with FV episodes reported to police between 1 – 14 November 2018. We examined the relationship between the factors triage teams recorded during their risk assessments and the risk categories the teams assigned, then tested the association of both the factors and categories with recurrence and physical recurrence within 24 weeks. The predictive validity of ISR triage teams’ risk categories was comparable to the results produced for the DYRA and SAFVR in manuscript one. The ISR risk categories again performed poorly for aggressors who were women, Māori, and for non-intimate partner cases; and overall, fewer than half of the factors triage teams recorded were associated with recurrence or physical recurrence. Then, in an additional chapter, we explored the triage teams’ factors’ utility for case management and found the factors could be used to create three sub-groups of cases with potential implications for their treatment and management. 
Finally, in the third manuscript, we modeled the behavioral patterns of 2,115 aggressors with a FV episode reported to police in Waikato and parts of Canterbury between 1 November – 9 December 2018, by collecting reports for further FV episodes involving those aggressors during the two years after the index episode. We used this information to describe three latent states behind the information reported to police and identified four common pathways through the latent states over time. We concluded this manuscript by discussing changes that could contribute to improvements in how risk for FV aggressors is conceptualized, assessed, and communicated in practice.
In each chapter, we discussed the theoretical and practical implications of the findings, before integrating those findings and implications in a general discussion chapter. Taken together, the results presented herein indicate that the risk assessment instruments used in New Zealand can predict risk for FV recurrence better than chance, but that those assessments should be further developed to improve their value to FV practice and ensure they adequately capture risk for different types of FV cases and groups of people. This thesis advanced our understanding of the limitations of—and opportunities in—risk assessment research and contributed to the evidence base for risk assessment for FV in New Zealand.

text: Risk assessment for family violence aggressors in Aotearoa New Zealand In recent decades Family Violence (FV) researchers have developed risk assessment instruments to enable practitioners to identify the people who are most likely to commit FV in the future, and the families who are most likely to experience ongoing harm. Indeed, risk assessments have become a standard procedure for FV practitioners who are frequently required to make decisions with potential ramifications for families’ safety and wellbeing. Yet, despite considerable developments in risk assessment research and practice, risk assessment instruments have limitations that curb their value to FV practice. In addition, such instruments should be empirically validated, but there is limited evidence for the validity of risk assessment instruments used by agencies that respond to FV in Aotearoa New Zealand. Therefore, in this thesis, we examined the risk assessment procedures that New Zealand Police and the Integrated Safety Response (ISR) used for FV, with the purpose of contributing to the evidence base about risk assessment for FV in New Zealand and identifying strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities for improvement.
This thesis contains three manuscripts either published in or submitted to peer-reviewed academic journals; as well as supplementary chapters that support, extend, and integrate the research findings. In the first manuscript, we examined the predictive validity of risk categories from the Dynamic Risk Assessment for family violence (DYRA) and Static Assessment of Family Violence Recidivism (SAFVR)—the two risk assessment instruments that New Zealand Police use when responding to FV cases—for a sample of 2,115 cases with FV episodes reported to police in Waikato and parts of Canterbury between 1 November – 9 December 2018 (1,817 of which had complete risk categories). We examined the instruments’ ability to predict recurrence (i.e., a further FV-related call for police service) at three intervals (3 days, 12 weeks, and 24 weeks), and found both instruments had a poor ability to discriminate between aggressors who had a recurrence and those who did not, with the SAFVR outperforming the DYRA, and the DYRA performing especially poorly for non-intimate partner cases, and aggressors who were Māori or women. 
In the second manuscript, we explored the risk assessments that Integrated Safety Response (ISR) triage team members conducted for a sub-sample of 842 cases with FV episodes reported to police between 1 – 14 November 2018. We examined the relationship between the factors triage teams recorded during their risk assessments and the risk categories the teams assigned, then tested the association of both the factors and categories with recurrence and physical recurrence within 24 weeks. The predictive validity of ISR triage teams’ risk categories was comparable to the results produced for the DYRA and SAFVR in manuscript one. The ISR risk categories again performed poorly for aggressors who were women, Māori, and for non-intimate partner cases; and overall, fewer than half of the factors triage teams recorded were associated with recurrence or physical recurrence. Then, in an additional chapter, we explored the triage teams’ factors’ utility for case management and found the factors could be used to create three sub-groups of cases with potential implications for their treatment and management. 
Finally, in the third manuscript, we modeled the behavioral patterns of 2,115 aggressors with a FV episode reported to police in Waikato and parts of Canterbury between 1 November – 9 December 2018, by collecting reports for further FV episodes involving those aggressors during the two years after the index episode. We used this information to describe three latent states behind the information reported to police and identified four common pathways through the latent states over time. We concluded this manuscript by discussing changes that could contribute to improvements in how risk for FV aggressors is conceptualized, assessed, and communicated in practice.
In each chapter, we discussed the theoretical and practical implications of the findings, before integrating those findings and implications in a general discussion chapter. Taken together, the results presented herein indicate that the risk assessment instruments used in New Zealand can predict risk for FV recurrence better than chance, but that those assessments should be further developed to improve their value to FV practice and ensure they adequately capture risk for different types of FV cases and groups of people. This thesis advanced our understanding of the limitations of—and opportunities in—risk assessment research and contributed to the evidence base for risk assessment for FV in New Zealand.

year: 2023

title: The intergenerational perpetuation of achievement messages in whānau

authors: Southey, Kim Marie

subjects: Maori

abstract: The current research is an open exploration of achievement messages that are carried from generation to generation in whānau, in relation to the mainstream education system of Aotearoa. Participant groups comprised of two to three generations within each whānau. A maximum of eight whānau will be asked to participate. A series of continuous conversations will be held with each member of the whānau, reminiscent of the narrative approach, but most recently described as a methodology that allows for ensuring that data is collected in its fullest form.
Differing views about achievement and how it is negotiated within whānau will be explored; along with issues on what, and who, within whānau are the most predominant indicators of achievement views. Detracting from an ethnocentric view of scholastic ability (a common marker for achievement) is done through abandoning mainstream ideals. This research favours an open exploration approach allowing for differing values about what constitutes achievement, and what context achievement is based in. Outcomes of the research are intended to show patterns within whānau and among Māori on the mainstream school system, and how this system has contributed to achievement messages. The positive or negative nature of the contribution from mainstream education is highly important and relevant to further research goals, including the ability to use outcomes to suggest social change in education provision for Māori.

text: The intergenerational perpetuation of achievement messages in whānau The current research is an open exploration of achievement messages that are carried from generation to generation in whānau, in relation to the mainstream education system of Aotearoa. Participant groups comprised of two to three generations within each whānau. A maximum of eight whānau will be asked to participate. A series of continuous conversations will be held with each member of the whānau, reminiscent of the narrative approach, but most recently described as a methodology that allows for ensuring that data is collected in its fullest form.
Differing views about achievement and how it is negotiated within whānau will be explored; along with issues on what, and who, within whānau are the most predominant indicators of achievement views. Detracting from an ethnocentric view of scholastic ability (a common marker for achievement) is done through abandoning mainstream ideals. This research favours an open exploration approach allowing for differing values about what constitutes achievement, and what context achievement is based in. Outcomes of the research are intended to show patterns within whānau and among Māori on the mainstream school system, and how this system has contributed to achievement messages. The positive or negative nature of the contribution from mainstream education is highly important and relevant to further research goals, including the ability to use outcomes to suggest social change in education provision for Māori.

year: 2003

title: Lake Ohinewai pest fish removal

authors: Daniel, Adam Joshua

abstract: Most riverine lakes in the Waikato region have deteriorated from a macrophyte-dominated state to an algal-dominated state. Pest fish have further compounded water quality issues by resuspending nutrient-rich sediment and are believed to be a major barrier to water quality improvements. The University of Waikato has an ongoing programme funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Environment, to produce pest fish management tools for end users that include removing pest fish from five lakes as an objective. The goal of the fish removals is to test the assumption that removing pest fish will improve water quality. Lake Ohinewai was selected as one of the five lakes to attempt a pest fish removal in 2009 and the removal operation was scheduled for January 2011. The Department of Conservation
agreed to assist with funding for consumables and the construction of an experimental barrier to assist with the Lake Ohinewai removal project. University of Waikato staff began removing pest fish from Lake Ohinewai in January 2011 with the assistance of the Department of Conservation and volunteers. A one-way fish barrier was designed and installed during May 2011 to prevent adult pest fish from recolonising the lake.

text: Lake Ohinewai pest fish removal Most riverine lakes in the Waikato region have deteriorated from a macrophyte-dominated state to an algal-dominated state. Pest fish have further compounded water quality issues by resuspending nutrient-rich sediment and are believed to be a major barrier to water quality improvements. The University of Waikato has an ongoing programme funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Environment, to produce pest fish management tools for end users that include removing pest fish from five lakes as an objective. The goal of the fish removals is to test the assumption that removing pest fish will improve water quality. Lake Ohinewai was selected as one of the five lakes to attempt a pest fish removal in 2009 and the removal operation was scheduled for January 2011. The Department of Conservation
agreed to assist with funding for consumables and the construction of an experimental barrier to assist with the Lake Ohinewai removal project. University of Waikato staff began removing pest fish from Lake Ohinewai in January 2011 with the assistance of the Department of Conservation and volunteers. A one-way fish barrier was designed and installed during May 2011 to prevent adult pest fish from recolonising the lake.

year: 2011-05-25