title: The economic impact of climate change on wheat and maize yields in the North China Plain.

authors: Song, Chunxiao

subjects: climate change

abstract: Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP. The results show that: (i) Extreme weather events (drought and flood) would significantly reduce the wheat and maize yields. So, the governments should establish and improve the emergency service system of disaster warning and encourage farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters. (ii) Over the past three decades, the NCP has experienced climate change that affects its grain production. Therefore, it is imperative to build the farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. (iii) Spatial variations in crop yield are significantly influenced by the household characteristics and the heterogeneity of village economic conditions. Therefore, in addition to promoting household production, it is necessary to strengthen and promote China's development of the rural collective economy, especially the construction of rural irrigation and drainage infrastructures.

text: The economic impact of climate change on wheat and maize yields in the North China Plain. Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP. The results show that: (i) Extreme weather events (drought and flood) would significantly reduce the wheat and maize yields. So, the governments should establish and improve the emergency service system of disaster warning and encourage farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters. (ii) Over the past three decades, the NCP has experienced climate change that affects its grain production. Therefore, it is imperative to build the farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. (iii) Spatial variations in crop yield are significantly influenced by the household characteristics and the heterogeneity of village economic conditions. Therefore, in addition to promoting household production, it is necessary to strengthen and promote China's development of the rural collective economy, especially the construction of rural irrigation and drainage infrastructures.

year: 2022-05-07

title: Selected data exploration methods in hydroclimatology

authors: Vetrova, Varvara

subjects: hydrclimatology

abstract: The volumes of climatological data are rapidly growing due to development of new acquisition platforms and advances in data storage technologies. Such advances provide new challenging problems for data analysis methods. As a result, there is an increasing interest in application and development of new machine learning and data mining methods in climatological data analysis.

This dissertation contributes to the field of data analysis by evaluation of selected methods and developing new techniques with application to hydro-climatological datasets. 

It is shown that data pre-processing with the decimated wavelet discrete transform can cause false predictive accuracy in regression machine learning algorithms. A general result is obtained that a decimated wavelet discrete transform based on a pyramidal algorithm requires utilizing some future values of the time series concerned. When the discrete wavelet transform is utilized as a pre-processing step for forecasting the time series, the necessary independence of calibration and validation data is compromised. This in turn translates into over-optimistic forecasting accuracy or even giving the illusion of forecasting skill when there in none. The obtained result is general and has wide implications in any discipline where the discrete wavelet transform is utilised in forecasting frameworks.

In addition, a general framework for creating simple predictive models is presented, based on LASSO regularised regression. The method is illustrated for time series modelling with external event forcing but the approach has general applicability. 

As a contribution to association discovery, two tests of bivariate association are developed. The first method is designed for detecting threshold-like associations in a scatter plot with particular reference to testing the significance of the extent of a data-sparse region within a scatter plot. The second method is a more general test of non-random associations. Both methods utilise significance testing based on randomizations.

Finally, LASSO regularized regression is investigated as a tool for discovering informative large scale climatogical predictors of local hydrological processes. A cross-validation scheme is proposed, which is related to practical forecasts of the next time interval to come, while at the same time maximising use of available information. The proposed methodology was applied to a case study predicting next-season river discharges in the Upper Waitaki River in New Zealand. The proposed forecasting methodology and cross-validation frameworks are applicable for similar hydroclimatological forecasting situations. The physical aspect of this part of the study included discovering the influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on winter discharges in the upper Waitaki catchment.

text: Selected data exploration methods in hydroclimatology The volumes of climatological data are rapidly growing due to development of new acquisition platforms and advances in data storage technologies. Such advances provide new challenging problems for data analysis methods. As a result, there is an increasing interest in application and development of new machine learning and data mining methods in climatological data analysis.

This dissertation contributes to the field of data analysis by evaluation of selected methods and developing new techniques with application to hydro-climatological datasets. 

It is shown that data pre-processing with the decimated wavelet discrete transform can cause false predictive accuracy in regression machine learning algorithms. A general result is obtained that a decimated wavelet discrete transform based on a pyramidal algorithm requires utilizing some future values of the time series concerned. When the discrete wavelet transform is utilized as a pre-processing step for forecasting the time series, the necessary independence of calibration and validation data is compromised. This in turn translates into over-optimistic forecasting accuracy or even giving the illusion of forecasting skill when there in none. The obtained result is general and has wide implications in any discipline where the discrete wavelet transform is utilised in forecasting frameworks.

In addition, a general framework for creating simple predictive models is presented, based on LASSO regularised regression. The method is illustrated for time series modelling with external event forcing but the approach has general applicability. 

As a contribution to association discovery, two tests of bivariate association are developed. The first method is designed for detecting threshold-like associations in a scatter plot with particular reference to testing the significance of the extent of a data-sparse region within a scatter plot. The second method is a more general test of non-random associations. Both methods utilise significance testing based on randomizations.

Finally, LASSO regularized regression is investigated as a tool for discovering informative large scale climatogical predictors of local hydrological processes. A cross-validation scheme is proposed, which is related to practical forecasts of the next time interval to come, while at the same time maximising use of available information. The proposed methodology was applied to a case study predicting next-season river discharges in the Upper Waitaki River in New Zealand. The proposed forecasting methodology and cross-validation frameworks are applicable for similar hydroclimatological forecasting situations. The physical aspect of this part of the study included discovering the influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on winter discharges in the upper Waitaki catchment.

year: 2016

title: In their voice: Adult learners' perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing

authors: Furness, Jane Amanda

abstract: In their voice: Adult learners’ perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing (2023) reports on a case study undertaken in collaboration with Literacy Aotearoa. It has been undertaken as part of a larger project, The expression, experience and transcendence of low skill in Aotearoa New Zealand (2019–2024), the aim of which is to provide policy recommendations to improve life-course trajectories and socio-economic outcomes for adults with low literacy and/or numeracy (L+N) skills in Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa). In their voice: Adult learners’ perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing examines adults’ experiences as they navigate their lives and develop their L+N repertoire towards their aspirations for themselves and their families. Our focus is mainly on Māori (the Indigenous peoples of Aotearoa) adults.

The study has taken place at a time when adult L+N policy is at a crossroads in three senses. Policy over the last 23 years has only marginally improved L+N on the measures government uses with adults, yet it is known that wide-ranging, holistic benefits accrue from L+N education that values and embodies Māori interests and ways of being. Second, the most recent iteration of L+N policy expired in 2017 and is yet to be replaced, opening an opportunity for reconceptualisation and transformation of adult L+N policy. Third, Māori educators have articulated and demonstrated over decades the content and approaches for L+N learning that are of interest and value to Māori adults and whānau (immediate and extended family) but these remain by-and-large systemically unsupported. Nevertheless, government expectation is that all policy in Aotearoa account for wellbeing outcomes as set out in the ‘Living Standards Framework ‘and ‘He Ara Waiora’ (The Treasury, 2021, n. d.).

The standpoint for this study is that the Eurocentric perspective of literacy that predominates in adult L+N policy in Aotearoa – reading and writing alphabetic text, usually in English, and primarily for economic purposes – is inadequate in our bicultural nation. This narrow view of literacy and its purposes severely limits the extent to which Māori expectations for adult L+N education and for Māori prosperity are realised, contrary to the word and the spirit of Te Tiriti o Waitangi (The Treaty of Waitangi). Viewing literacy through sociocultural, sociomaterial, critical literacies and Indigenous lenses, the study makes a strong case for a much broader understanding of literacy and its purposes to decolonise adult L+N policy for the future. Supporting this aspiration, the study advances the notion of multiple meanings of literacy in which Māori perspectives are valued, upheld and promoted. Māori perspectives are understood as centring on whakapapa (genealogy) which provides the framework for connectedness of all things and is the basis for Māori identity and for comprehending and interpreting the world. 

The research process was informed by Kaupapa Māori (a Māori agenda) to the extent possible. Māori researchers conducted all but one interview and contributed to the thematic analysis of participants’ narratives. Two Pākehā researchers worked closely with the Māori team members and were guided by them. The specific approach for this case study was co-designed with Literacy Aotearoa to ensure participants’ needs and aspirations in the research were met. Twenty adults (15 Māori, one Samoan and four Pākehā) graciously agreed to share their insights and were interviewed individually, in pairs or in a focus group according to their choice. They were aged from early 20s to late 60s and varied in their qualifications and learning challenges. The same number of men and women took part. The following questions directed the interviews and focus groups:

1. What has motivated people/whānau to make change in their lives?
2. What was the pathway that people/whānau have taken to make change in their lives? 
3. What are people’s experiences of their efforts to make change in their lives? 
4. What have been supports or facilitators, barriers or challenges in their efforts? 

The narrative transcripts were analysed from a critical sociocultural and strengths-based standpoint. Findings were described and discussed in relation to the following broad thematic categories:

 1. What matters to people in their lives – views of wellbeing, values and aspirations
 2. Learning and life pathways – experiences of learning, schooling and post school
 3. What enables people to live the lives they choose
 4. What makes it harder for people to live the lives they choose

The study shows the centrality of te ao Māori (Māori worldview) in the lives of Māori adults and whānau. It is fundamental to Māori identity and wellbeing and remains throughout their lives even when they have experienced periods of disconnection. Enacted valuing of te ao Māori within the programmes enabled participants to feel safe to be who they are, excited about their L+N learning, and looking forward to meaningful outcomes for themselves and their whānau despite the oft-present anxiety about returning to a classroom. Relatedly, prioritising the wellbeing of the learners through caring and respectful learning environments is crucial to coming to and staying in L+N learning opportunities which can then provide an opportunity to transcend hurtful past learning experiences and enable participants to see themselves as capable learners and contributing adults in the world. These characteristics of the participants’ learning experiences in the study programmes reflected values and ways of being fundamental to being Māori which meant the dissonance often experienced in other learning settings was not present and participants could enjoy learning what and how was important to them.

The study notes that L+N in the Eurocentric meaning was addressed in the L+N programmes our participants attended (for example digital skills for work were taught) but the programmes simultaneously embodied broader meanings and purposes of literacy that are not typically foregrounded in L+N policy in Aotearoa. The study contends that the enactment in the programmes of Māori values and ways of being and doing allowed transformative learning to occur, not just for the Māori learners but for everyone. The study demonstrated that L+N learning valued by learners themselves is best defined as the acquisition of knowledge and skills that have meaning and are useful in their lives, can contribute to better lives for whānau, hapū and iwi and can be passed on to future generations. Defined from this viewpoint, valued L+N includes matauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and Māori cultural practices, values and language; foundational skills and knowledge in English missed at school; and specific skills for changing times including work and everyday personal, family and community life that centres whānau (family and extended family) wellbeing.

The study calls for a change in the definition and rationalisation embedded in current (though expired) adult L+N policy from a narrow economy-focused approach to a broad and culturally inclusive definition and rationalisation. This requires detachment from a singular view of what literacy is to a view of literacy as a multiple construct; in other words, seeing literacy as having many meanings. Accompanying this embrace of literacies, Māori perspectives of L+N must move from the margins of adult L+N policy to the centre, led by Māori.

text: In their voice: Adult learners' perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing In their voice: Adult learners’ perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing (2023) reports on a case study undertaken in collaboration with Literacy Aotearoa. It has been undertaken as part of a larger project, The expression, experience and transcendence of low skill in Aotearoa New Zealand (2019–2024), the aim of which is to provide policy recommendations to improve life-course trajectories and socio-economic outcomes for adults with low literacy and/or numeracy (L+N) skills in Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa). In their voice: Adult learners’ perspectives on literacy and numeracy, learning and wellbeing examines adults’ experiences as they navigate their lives and develop their L+N repertoire towards their aspirations for themselves and their families. Our focus is mainly on Māori (the Indigenous peoples of Aotearoa) adults.

The study has taken place at a time when adult L+N policy is at a crossroads in three senses. Policy over the last 23 years has only marginally improved L+N on the measures government uses with adults, yet it is known that wide-ranging, holistic benefits accrue from L+N education that values and embodies Māori interests and ways of being. Second, the most recent iteration of L+N policy expired in 2017 and is yet to be replaced, opening an opportunity for reconceptualisation and transformation of adult L+N policy. Third, Māori educators have articulated and demonstrated over decades the content and approaches for L+N learning that are of interest and value to Māori adults and whānau (immediate and extended family) but these remain by-and-large systemically unsupported. Nevertheless, government expectation is that all policy in Aotearoa account for wellbeing outcomes as set out in the ‘Living Standards Framework ‘and ‘He Ara Waiora’ (The Treasury, 2021, n. d.).

The standpoint for this study is that the Eurocentric perspective of literacy that predominates in adult L+N policy in Aotearoa – reading and writing alphabetic text, usually in English, and primarily for economic purposes – is inadequate in our bicultural nation. This narrow view of literacy and its purposes severely limits the extent to which Māori expectations for adult L+N education and for Māori prosperity are realised, contrary to the word and the spirit of Te Tiriti o Waitangi (The Treaty of Waitangi). Viewing literacy through sociocultural, sociomaterial, critical literacies and Indigenous lenses, the study makes a strong case for a much broader understanding of literacy and its purposes to decolonise adult L+N policy for the future. Supporting this aspiration, the study advances the notion of multiple meanings of literacy in which Māori perspectives are valued, upheld and promoted. Māori perspectives are understood as centring on whakapapa (genealogy) which provides the framework for connectedness of all things and is the basis for Māori identity and for comprehending and interpreting the world. 

The research process was informed by Kaupapa Māori (a Māori agenda) to the extent possible. Māori researchers conducted all but one interview and contributed to the thematic analysis of participants’ narratives. Two Pākehā researchers worked closely with the Māori team members and were guided by them. The specific approach for this case study was co-designed with Literacy Aotearoa to ensure participants’ needs and aspirations in the research were met. Twenty adults (15 Māori, one Samoan and four Pākehā) graciously agreed to share their insights and were interviewed individually, in pairs or in a focus group according to their choice. They were aged from early 20s to late 60s and varied in their qualifications and learning challenges. The same number of men and women took part. The following questions directed the interviews and focus groups:

1. What has motivated people/whānau to make change in their lives?
2. What was the pathway that people/whānau have taken to make change in their lives? 
3. What are people’s experiences of their efforts to make change in their lives? 
4. What have been supports or facilitators, barriers or challenges in their efforts? 

The narrative transcripts were analysed from a critical sociocultural and strengths-based standpoint. Findings were described and discussed in relation to the following broad thematic categories:

 1. What matters to people in their lives – views of wellbeing, values and aspirations
 2. Learning and life pathways – experiences of learning, schooling and post school
 3. What enables people to live the lives they choose
 4. What makes it harder for people to live the lives they choose

The study shows the centrality of te ao Māori (Māori worldview) in the lives of Māori adults and whānau. It is fundamental to Māori identity and wellbeing and remains throughout their lives even when they have experienced periods of disconnection. Enacted valuing of te ao Māori within the programmes enabled participants to feel safe to be who they are, excited about their L+N learning, and looking forward to meaningful outcomes for themselves and their whānau despite the oft-present anxiety about returning to a classroom. Relatedly, prioritising the wellbeing of the learners through caring and respectful learning environments is crucial to coming to and staying in L+N learning opportunities which can then provide an opportunity to transcend hurtful past learning experiences and enable participants to see themselves as capable learners and contributing adults in the world. These characteristics of the participants’ learning experiences in the study programmes reflected values and ways of being fundamental to being Māori which meant the dissonance often experienced in other learning settings was not present and participants could enjoy learning what and how was important to them.

The study notes that L+N in the Eurocentric meaning was addressed in the L+N programmes our participants attended (for example digital skills for work were taught) but the programmes simultaneously embodied broader meanings and purposes of literacy that are not typically foregrounded in L+N policy in Aotearoa. The study contends that the enactment in the programmes of Māori values and ways of being and doing allowed transformative learning to occur, not just for the Māori learners but for everyone. The study demonstrated that L+N learning valued by learners themselves is best defined as the acquisition of knowledge and skills that have meaning and are useful in their lives, can contribute to better lives for whānau, hapū and iwi and can be passed on to future generations. Defined from this viewpoint, valued L+N includes matauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and Māori cultural practices, values and language; foundational skills and knowledge in English missed at school; and specific skills for changing times including work and everyday personal, family and community life that centres whānau (family and extended family) wellbeing.

The study calls for a change in the definition and rationalisation embedded in current (though expired) adult L+N policy from a narrow economy-focused approach to a broad and culturally inclusive definition and rationalisation. This requires detachment from a singular view of what literacy is to a view of literacy as a multiple construct; in other words, seeing literacy as having many meanings. Accompanying this embrace of literacies, Māori perspectives of L+N must move from the margins of adult L+N policy to the centre, led by Māori.

year: 2023