title: Integrated Model Development for the Assessment of Food Security in China Related to Climate Change and Adaptation

authors: Wang, Meng

subjects: Climate Change

abstract: This thesis developed a practical methodological framework, which integrated the bio-physical and socio-economic processes within the food system across different scales. The framework provides a useful tool for the assessment of food security and possible adaptation related to climate change. It was applied in China, a country with rapid economic growth and a large population, in order to evaluate multiple dimensions of food security related to climate change and socio-economic development in the future. 

In the framework, an improved bio-physical crop model was coupled with an improved food economic model by scaling up from the farm level to the national level. The bio-physical crop model was developed from the site-based Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model in order to investigate the impacts of climate change on physical production of a crop only related to environmental factors. The food economic model was developed from a partial equilibrium economic model, China's Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM). This was done in order to simulate the response of a socio-economic system to the negative consequences on a food economic system from the bio-physical change in crop production due to climate change.

Case studies of China and the Jilin province were investigated by applying the framework. The impacts of climate change on yield and phenology of maize under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios were studied at provincial and national levels in three time periods, 2020s, 2050s, 2070s, using the improved bio-physical crop model. In general, maize yield reduction due to climate change ranges from -3% in 2020 to -14% in 2070. The worst yield is -20.5% in 2070 produced under the A1FI scenario. Food security for China until 2050 was projected under multiple climate change and socio-economic scenarios by using the food economic model, and analyzed with respect to food availability, food price and the system resilience to sudden disasters. Modelled climate change impacts on food availability in this study are minimal, producing only a 23 Mt (~8%) gap between supply and demand for maize by 2050. The socio-economic system will compensate for the impacts of climate change on the self-sufficiency of grains by about 8% of total production for the whole country. The impacts on single grain would cause the prices of other grains to rise in future. The effectiveness of potential adaptation measures was assessed quantitatively at both farm and national levels. Uncertainties among different scenarios are discussed for China and the Jilin province.

text: Integrated Model Development for the Assessment of Food Security in China Related to Climate Change and Adaptation This thesis developed a practical methodological framework, which integrated the bio-physical and socio-economic processes within the food system across different scales. The framework provides a useful tool for the assessment of food security and possible adaptation related to climate change. It was applied in China, a country with rapid economic growth and a large population, in order to evaluate multiple dimensions of food security related to climate change and socio-economic development in the future. 

In the framework, an improved bio-physical crop model was coupled with an improved food economic model by scaling up from the farm level to the national level. The bio-physical crop model was developed from the site-based Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model in order to investigate the impacts of climate change on physical production of a crop only related to environmental factors. The food economic model was developed from a partial equilibrium economic model, China's Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM). This was done in order to simulate the response of a socio-economic system to the negative consequences on a food economic system from the bio-physical change in crop production due to climate change.

Case studies of China and the Jilin province were investigated by applying the framework. The impacts of climate change on yield and phenology of maize under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios were studied at provincial and national levels in three time periods, 2020s, 2050s, 2070s, using the improved bio-physical crop model. In general, maize yield reduction due to climate change ranges from -3% in 2020 to -14% in 2070. The worst yield is -20.5% in 2070 produced under the A1FI scenario. Food security for China until 2050 was projected under multiple climate change and socio-economic scenarios by using the food economic model, and analyzed with respect to food availability, food price and the system resilience to sudden disasters. Modelled climate change impacts on food availability in this study are minimal, producing only a 23 Mt (~8%) gap between supply and demand for maize by 2050. The socio-economic system will compensate for the impacts of climate change on the self-sufficiency of grains by about 8% of total production for the whole country. The impacts on single grain would cause the prices of other grains to rise in future. The effectiveness of potential adaptation measures was assessed quantitatively at both farm and national levels. Uncertainties among different scenarios are discussed for China and the Jilin province.

year: 2014

title: Landslides in sensitive soils, Tauranga, New Zealand.

authors: Moon, Vicki G.

subjects: sensitive soil

abstract: In the Tauranga region sensitive soil failures commonly occur after heavy rainfall events, causing considerable infrastructure damage. Several notable landslides include a large failure at Bramley Drive, Omokoroa in 1979, the Ruahihi Canal collapse in 1981, and numerous landslides in May 2005; recently the Bramley Drive scarp was reactivated in 2011. These failures are associated with materials loosely classified as the Pahoia Tephras - a mixture of rhyolitic pyroclastic deposits of approximately 1 Ma.

The common link with extreme rainfall events suggests a pore water pressure control on the initiation of these failures. Recent research on the structure of the soils shows a dominance of halloysite clay minerals packed loosely in arrangements with high porosity (51 – 77 %), but with almost entirely micropores. This leads us to conclude that the permeability is very low, and the materials remain continuously wet. The formation of halloysite is encouraged by a wet environment with no episodes of drying, supporting this assumption.

A high-resolution CPT trace at Bramley Drive indicates induced pore water pressures rising steadily to a peak at approximately 25 m depth; this depth coincides with the base of the landslide scarp. We infer that elevated pore water pressures develop within this single, thick aquifer, triggering failure through reduced effective stresses. The inactive halloysite clay mineral results in low plasticity indices (13 – 44 %) and hence high liquidity indices (1.2 – 2.4) due to the saturated pore space; remoulding following failure is sudden and dramatic and results in large debris runout distances.

text: Landslides in sensitive soils, Tauranga, New Zealand. In the Tauranga region sensitive soil failures commonly occur after heavy rainfall events, causing considerable infrastructure damage. Several notable landslides include a large failure at Bramley Drive, Omokoroa in 1979, the Ruahihi Canal collapse in 1981, and numerous landslides in May 2005; recently the Bramley Drive scarp was reactivated in 2011. These failures are associated with materials loosely classified as the Pahoia Tephras - a mixture of rhyolitic pyroclastic deposits of approximately 1 Ma.

The common link with extreme rainfall events suggests a pore water pressure control on the initiation of these failures. Recent research on the structure of the soils shows a dominance of halloysite clay minerals packed loosely in arrangements with high porosity (51 – 77 %), but with almost entirely micropores. This leads us to conclude that the permeability is very low, and the materials remain continuously wet. The formation of halloysite is encouraged by a wet environment with no episodes of drying, supporting this assumption.

A high-resolution CPT trace at Bramley Drive indicates induced pore water pressures rising steadily to a peak at approximately 25 m depth; this depth coincides with the base of the landslide scarp. We infer that elevated pore water pressures develop within this single, thick aquifer, triggering failure through reduced effective stresses. The inactive halloysite clay mineral results in low plasticity indices (13 – 44 %) and hence high liquidity indices (1.2 – 2.4) due to the saturated pore space; remoulding following failure is sudden and dramatic and results in large debris runout distances.

year: 2013

title: Te Whanake Online: An interactive resource for Māori language learning

authors: Ka'ai, Tānia M.

subjects: New Zealand

abstract: The promotion of the Māori language is regarded by Māori as essential to the survival of Māori culture, arts, history and identity. The goal of the Te Whanake Online project is to develop a series of online interactive modules to complement an established Māori language learning set of texts and related resources, called Te Whanake. Te Whanake Online supports an immersion or game-style approach to language learning. Currently the fifteen modules for the first book in the series, Te Whanake 1 Te Kākano, have been completed. Each module begins with an animated movie introducing the new language of the module. Between nine and sixteen activities in each module provide practice in a wide range of spoken and written language skills, including listening with comprehension, speaking, reading with comprehension, writing and activities to help learn grammatical structures and vocabulary. The project means that Māori language learners will have access to an online resource which is at the forefront of current thinking and practice in language learning online and firmly grounded in a successful and well-established Māori language series of texts, study guides, audio-visual resources, a dictionary-index, and teachers' manuals. This article outlines the project background, its design, evaluation and the outcomes.

text: Te Whanake Online: An interactive resource for Māori language learning The promotion of the Māori language is regarded by Māori as essential to the survival of Māori culture, arts, history and identity. The goal of the Te Whanake Online project is to develop a series of online interactive modules to complement an established Māori language learning set of texts and related resources, called Te Whanake. Te Whanake Online supports an immersion or game-style approach to language learning. Currently the fifteen modules for the first book in the series, Te Whanake 1 Te Kākano, have been completed. Each module begins with an animated movie introducing the new language of the module. Between nine and sixteen activities in each module provide practice in a wide range of spoken and written language skills, including listening with comprehension, speaking, reading with comprehension, writing and activities to help learn grammatical structures and vocabulary. The project means that Māori language learners will have access to an online resource which is at the forefront of current thinking and practice in language learning online and firmly grounded in a successful and well-established Māori language series of texts, study guides, audio-visual resources, a dictionary-index, and teachers' manuals. This article outlines the project background, its design, evaluation and the outcomes.

year: 2006-09