title: Do youth in sport stay out of court? Insights and recommendations for families, coaches, community groups, sports organisations, and policymakers

authors: Clarke, Gloria Hinemoa

abstract: In Aotearoa New Zealand, rugby and rugby league are popular sporting codes, historically and particularly among males. In their 2023 annual reports, New Zealand Rugby reported 147,434 registered participants, while New Zealand Rugby League reported 28,180. Both institutions have also developed equity, diversity and inclusion strategies aimed at nurturing the participation and involvement of women and girls, as well as Māori and Pacific communities. However, while both codes have recorded an increase in female participation, there has been a gradual decline in male participation (Cully, 2023; Radio New Zealand, 2023; Wilson, 2022). This decline in sport participation has also been noted by (former) Principal Youth Court Judge Andrew Becroft, who found that young male offenders are often not involved in sport (Bruce, 2013; Sport NZ, 2018). 

This report summarises the findings of a study that examines sports attrition in relation to youth offending. In that study, the author (Clarke, 2012) examined the childhood and youth sporting experiences and illegal activities of five young men aged between 18 and 25 years old. 

The aim of this report is to provide insights into how these young men became involved in sport and why they dropped out, how they became involved in crime, and possible links between their sport participation and offending. Their experiences highlight several issues that can be addressed by parents/caregivers, clubs, sport administrators, coaches, community groups, sports organisations, and policymakers. 

In course of the study, six key observations were made. For these young men:
1. rugby and or rugby league were their primary and final sporting codes; 
2. these sports were or had become ‘just a game’;
3. aggressive coaches diminished their enjoyment and commitment to sport;
4. their parents/caregivers were absent from their sporting lives; 
5. their participation in sport and crime was simultaneous; and
6. the collision aspect of rugby and rugby league may have helped to facilitate their offending.

In this document, the names of these young men have been replaced with aliases. To provide the reader with a richer and deeper understanding of the issues, the report features a number of their stories and reflections (edited for readability only). The research methods are briefly outlined in Appendix 1. Sources included in this report are listed in the References section. For a fuller review of the literature and the research analysis refer to the original research document (Clarke, 2012).

text: Do youth in sport stay out of court? Insights and recommendations for families, coaches, community groups, sports organisations, and policymakers In Aotearoa New Zealand, rugby and rugby league are popular sporting codes, historically and particularly among males. In their 2023 annual reports, New Zealand Rugby reported 147,434 registered participants, while New Zealand Rugby League reported 28,180. Both institutions have also developed equity, diversity and inclusion strategies aimed at nurturing the participation and involvement of women and girls, as well as Māori and Pacific communities. However, while both codes have recorded an increase in female participation, there has been a gradual decline in male participation (Cully, 2023; Radio New Zealand, 2023; Wilson, 2022). This decline in sport participation has also been noted by (former) Principal Youth Court Judge Andrew Becroft, who found that young male offenders are often not involved in sport (Bruce, 2013; Sport NZ, 2018). 

This report summarises the findings of a study that examines sports attrition in relation to youth offending. In that study, the author (Clarke, 2012) examined the childhood and youth sporting experiences and illegal activities of five young men aged between 18 and 25 years old. 

The aim of this report is to provide insights into how these young men became involved in sport and why they dropped out, how they became involved in crime, and possible links between their sport participation and offending. Their experiences highlight several issues that can be addressed by parents/caregivers, clubs, sport administrators, coaches, community groups, sports organisations, and policymakers. 

In course of the study, six key observations were made. For these young men:
1. rugby and or rugby league were their primary and final sporting codes; 
2. these sports were or had become ‘just a game’;
3. aggressive coaches diminished their enjoyment and commitment to sport;
4. their parents/caregivers were absent from their sporting lives; 
5. their participation in sport and crime was simultaneous; and
6. the collision aspect of rugby and rugby league may have helped to facilitate their offending.

In this document, the names of these young men have been replaced with aliases. To provide the reader with a richer and deeper understanding of the issues, the report features a number of their stories and reflections (edited for readability only). The research methods are briefly outlined in Appendix 1. Sources included in this report are listed in the References section. For a fuller review of the literature and the research analysis refer to the original research document (Clarke, 2012).

year: 2025

title: Predictive Risk Modelling for Hospital Readmissions

authors: Forsythe, Claire Elizabeth

subjects: Logistic regression

abstract: This thesis is concerned with developing a predictive risk model to identify patients that are at high risk of readmission to hospital. Such a model should have a desirable level of predictive accuracy but also, should be financially beneficial to the DHB. Logistic regression and Naive Bayes probabilistic classification methods were both considered to build the predictive model. Performance measures such as the positive predictive value (PPV) and cost savings analysis were used to find the optimal days between initial admission and readmission and the optimal threshold for prediction of high risk patients. This study is concerned with Waikato District Health Board (DHB) domiciled patients discharged between 1 July 2009 and 31 October 2013. The dataset includes information about the patients initial admission and the response variable is whether a readmission occurred or not. 

Using logistic regression, this study found the model that fits the data best includes 21 variables that contain information about the patients initial admission. The two classification methods used produce a risk probability between 0 and 1 for each patient in the study. The logistic regression model performance was better than Naive Bayes as shown by the PPV (the proportion of patients correctly identified as at risk over the total at risk). The 56 day readmission data PPV at a risk threshold of 0.5 for the logistic regression was 48.4% and 30.8% for Naive Bayes. Analysis of the PPV identifies the risk threshold level of 0.5 and readmission period of 56 days as optimal predictive criteria in this study. Cost savings analysis also supports the 56 day model with an intervention cost of $500. The 0.5 cut off point in the 56 day model identifies a reasonable number of patients at risk for intervention, approximately 3,000, which equates to about 2 patients at risk per day over the period of this analysis.

This analysis found the optimal model for predicting patients at risk of readmission is a logistic regression model using 56 day readmission data and a risk threshold of 0.5. A key recommendation of this study is that the DHB needs to introduce a method that correctly flags patient admissions. The model should be used on a trial basis at the DHB to see how accurate it performs.

text: Predictive Risk Modelling for Hospital Readmissions This thesis is concerned with developing a predictive risk model to identify patients that are at high risk of readmission to hospital. Such a model should have a desirable level of predictive accuracy but also, should be financially beneficial to the DHB. Logistic regression and Naive Bayes probabilistic classification methods were both considered to build the predictive model. Performance measures such as the positive predictive value (PPV) and cost savings analysis were used to find the optimal days between initial admission and readmission and the optimal threshold for prediction of high risk patients. This study is concerned with Waikato District Health Board (DHB) domiciled patients discharged between 1 July 2009 and 31 October 2013. The dataset includes information about the patients initial admission and the response variable is whether a readmission occurred or not. 

Using logistic regression, this study found the model that fits the data best includes 21 variables that contain information about the patients initial admission. The two classification methods used produce a risk probability between 0 and 1 for each patient in the study. The logistic regression model performance was better than Naive Bayes as shown by the PPV (the proportion of patients correctly identified as at risk over the total at risk). The 56 day readmission data PPV at a risk threshold of 0.5 for the logistic regression was 48.4% and 30.8% for Naive Bayes. Analysis of the PPV identifies the risk threshold level of 0.5 and readmission period of 56 days as optimal predictive criteria in this study. Cost savings analysis also supports the 56 day model with an intervention cost of $500. The 0.5 cut off point in the 56 day model identifies a reasonable number of patients at risk for intervention, approximately 3,000, which equates to about 2 patients at risk per day over the period of this analysis.

This analysis found the optimal model for predicting patients at risk of readmission is a logistic regression model using 56 day readmission data and a risk threshold of 0.5. A key recommendation of this study is that the DHB needs to introduce a method that correctly flags patient admissions. The model should be used on a trial basis at the DHB to see how accurate it performs.

year: 2014

title: Early intervention services: Effectively supporting Maori children and their families

authors: Berryman, Mere

subjects: Early Childhood

abstract: This paper examines Early Intervention (EI) service provision from within one Ministry of Education region in New Zealand. It does this in order to better understand what works well and what needs to change if children from Maori families, of Early Childhood age, are to be provided with the most effective EI services. By engaging with Maori families in group-focused interviews-asconversation, and then with their service providers, about their experiences of working together, researchers learned about what could provide effective services for other Maori families in similar situations.

text: Early intervention services: Effectively supporting Maori children and their families This paper examines Early Intervention (EI) service provision from within one Ministry of Education region in New Zealand. It does this in order to better understand what works well and what needs to change if children from Maori families, of Early Childhood age, are to be provided with the most effective EI services. By engaging with Maori families in group-focused interviews-asconversation, and then with their service providers, about their experiences of working together, researchers learned about what could provide effective services for other Maori families in similar situations.

year: 2011