title: Measurement error in long-term retrospective recall surveys of earnings

authors: Gibson, John

subjects: longitudinal data

abstract: Several recent studies in labour and population economics use retrospective surveys to substitute for the high cost and limited availability of longitudinal survey data. Although a single interview can obtain a lifetime history, inaccurate long-term recall could make such retrospective surveys a poor substitute for longitudinal surveys, especially if it induces non-classical error that makes conventional statistical corrections less effective. In this paper, we use the unique Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to assess the accuracy of long-term recall data. We find underreporting of transitory events. This recall error creates a non-classical measurement error problem. A limited cost-benefit analysis is also conducted, showing how savings from using a cheaper retrospective recall survey might be compared with the cost of applying the less accurate recall data to a specific policy objective such as designing transfers to reduce chronic poverty.

text: Measurement error in long-term retrospective recall surveys of earnings Several recent studies in labour and population economics use retrospective surveys to substitute for the high cost and limited availability of longitudinal survey data. Although a single interview can obtain a lifetime history, inaccurate long-term recall could make such retrospective surveys a poor substitute for longitudinal surveys, especially if it induces non-classical error that makes conventional statistical corrections less effective. In this paper, we use the unique Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to assess the accuracy of long-term recall data. We find underreporting of transitory events. This recall error creates a non-classical measurement error problem. A limited cost-benefit analysis is also conducted, showing how savings from using a cheaper retrospective recall survey might be compared with the cost of applying the less accurate recall data to a specific policy objective such as designing transfers to reduce chronic poverty.

year: 2007-03

title: Stratigraphy and development of the Late Miocene-Early Pleistocene Hawke’s Bay forearc basin

authors: Bland, Kyle J.

subjects: Hawke’s Bay

abstract: A Late Miocene-Early Pleistocene mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sedimentary succession about 2 500 m thick in the Hawke’s Bay forearc basin is the focus of a basin analysis. The area under investigation covers 3 500 km2 of western and central Hawke’s Bay. The stratigraphy of Hawke’s Bay Basin is characterised by dramatic vertical and lateral facies changes and significant fluxes of siliciclastic sediment through the Late Miocene and Pliocene. This project aims to better understand the character and origin of the sedimentary succession in the basin. Geological mapping has been undertaken at a scale of 1:25000, with data managed in an ARCINFO geodatabase, following the database model employed in the IGNS QMap programme.
Along the western margin of the basin there is progressive southward onlap of late Cenozoic strata on to basement. The oldest units are of Late Miocene (Tongaporutuan) age and the youngest onlap units are of latest Pliocene (Nukumaruan) age. Geological mapping of the basin fill places constraints on the magnitude (about 10 km) and timing (Pleistocene) of most of the offset on the North Island Shear Belt.
Lithofacies have been described and interpreted representing fluvial, estuarine, shoreface and inner- to outer-shelf environments. Conglomerate facies are representative of sediment-saturated prograding fluvial braidplains and river deltas. These units are dominated by greywacke gravels and record the erosion of the Kaweka-Ahimanawa Ranges. Sandstone facies typically comprise very well sorted, clean non-cemented units of 10-50 m thickness that accumulated in innershelf environments. Siltstone facies probably accumulated in relatively quiet, middle- to outer-shelf water depths, and comprise well-sorted, firm non-cemented units with occasional tephra interbeds. Limestone facies represent examples of continent-attached cool-water carbonate systems that developed in response to strong tidal currents and a high nutrient flux during the Pliocene. These facies are examples of mixed siliciclastic-bioclastic sedimentary systems. Of these facies the widespread distribution and thickness of sandstone and limestone units present the most potential for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Similarly, the distribution of siltstone and mudstone beds provides adequate seal rocks. Mangapanian limestone facies have already been targeted as potential petroleum reservoirs (e.g. Kereru-1). Geological mapping suggests that potential hydrocarbon reservoir and seal rocks occur extensively in the subsurface.

text: Stratigraphy and development of the Late Miocene-Early Pleistocene Hawke’s Bay forearc basin A Late Miocene-Early Pleistocene mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sedimentary succession about 2 500 m thick in the Hawke’s Bay forearc basin is the focus of a basin analysis. The area under investigation covers 3 500 km2 of western and central Hawke’s Bay. The stratigraphy of Hawke’s Bay Basin is characterised by dramatic vertical and lateral facies changes and significant fluxes of siliciclastic sediment through the Late Miocene and Pliocene. This project aims to better understand the character and origin of the sedimentary succession in the basin. Geological mapping has been undertaken at a scale of 1:25000, with data managed in an ARCINFO geodatabase, following the database model employed in the IGNS QMap programme.
Along the western margin of the basin there is progressive southward onlap of late Cenozoic strata on to basement. The oldest units are of Late Miocene (Tongaporutuan) age and the youngest onlap units are of latest Pliocene (Nukumaruan) age. Geological mapping of the basin fill places constraints on the magnitude (about 10 km) and timing (Pleistocene) of most of the offset on the North Island Shear Belt.
Lithofacies have been described and interpreted representing fluvial, estuarine, shoreface and inner- to outer-shelf environments. Conglomerate facies are representative of sediment-saturated prograding fluvial braidplains and river deltas. These units are dominated by greywacke gravels and record the erosion of the Kaweka-Ahimanawa Ranges. Sandstone facies typically comprise very well sorted, clean non-cemented units of 10-50 m thickness that accumulated in innershelf environments. Siltstone facies probably accumulated in relatively quiet, middle- to outer-shelf water depths, and comprise well-sorted, firm non-cemented units with occasional tephra interbeds. Limestone facies represent examples of continent-attached cool-water carbonate systems that developed in response to strong tidal currents and a high nutrient flux during the Pliocene. These facies are examples of mixed siliciclastic-bioclastic sedimentary systems. Of these facies the widespread distribution and thickness of sandstone and limestone units present the most potential for hydrocarbon reservoirs. Similarly, the distribution of siltstone and mudstone beds provides adequate seal rocks. Mangapanian limestone facies have already been targeted as potential petroleum reservoirs (e.g. Kereru-1). Geological mapping suggests that potential hydrocarbon reservoir and seal rocks occur extensively in the subsurface.

year: 2004

title: Vital evidence: Change in the marine ¹⁴C reservoir around New Zealand (Aotearoa) and implications for the timing of Polynesian settlement.

authors: Petchey, Fiona

abstract: Precise and accurate radiocarbon chronologies are essential to achieve tight chronological control for the ~ 750-years since Polynesian settlement of New Zealand. This goal has, however, been elusive. While radiocarbon datasets in the region are typically dominated by marine and estuarine shell dates, such chronological information has been ignored by those interpreting the timing of key events because a detailed regional calibration methodology for marine shell, comparable to the highly precise Southern Hemisphere calibration curve, is lacking. In this paper, we present the first temporal ¹⁴C marine offset (ΔR) model for New Zealand based on paired estuarine/marine and terrestrial radiocarbon dates from 52 archaeological contexts. Our dataset displays significant offsets between the measured New Zealand data and the modelled global marine radiocarbon curve. These shifts are associated with oceanographic fluctuation at the onset of the Little Ice Age ~ AD 1350-1450 (650-500 BP). The application of a regional and temporal correction to archaeological shell dates provides complimentary information to terrestrial radiocarbon production and has the potential to add structure to the blurred chronology that has plagued archaeological theories about the colonization of New Zealand, and other Pacific islands, for decades.

text: Vital evidence: Change in the marine ¹⁴C reservoir around New Zealand (Aotearoa) and implications for the timing of Polynesian settlement. Precise and accurate radiocarbon chronologies are essential to achieve tight chronological control for the ~ 750-years since Polynesian settlement of New Zealand. This goal has, however, been elusive. While radiocarbon datasets in the region are typically dominated by marine and estuarine shell dates, such chronological information has been ignored by those interpreting the timing of key events because a detailed regional calibration methodology for marine shell, comparable to the highly precise Southern Hemisphere calibration curve, is lacking. In this paper, we present the first temporal ¹⁴C marine offset (ΔR) model for New Zealand based on paired estuarine/marine and terrestrial radiocarbon dates from 52 archaeological contexts. Our dataset displays significant offsets between the measured New Zealand data and the modelled global marine radiocarbon curve. These shifts are associated with oceanographic fluctuation at the onset of the Little Ice Age ~ AD 1350-1450 (650-500 BP). The application of a regional and temporal correction to archaeological shell dates provides complimentary information to terrestrial radiocarbon production and has the potential to add structure to the blurred chronology that has plagued archaeological theories about the colonization of New Zealand, and other Pacific islands, for decades.

year: 2020