title: MacKinder meets Buzan: A Geopolitical Extension to Security complex Theory with an emphasis on the Polar Regions

authors: Gibbs, Denis Richard

subjects: Shatterbelts

abstract: Throughout the centuries interstate wars have been fought over territory to satisfy the requirement of states’ to secure sufficient land and resources to meet the lifestyle needs and economic aspirations of their citizens. While in the past, the conditions precipitating war were predominantly anthropogenic in their origin, in the twenty-first century, wars are increasingly likely to be the consequence of worldwide environmental degradation. Two environmental conditions that have paralleled humanity’s unceasing drive for wealth and prosperity are becoming significant threats to the security of every state: these threats are global climate change and natural resource scarcity. Although these two threats are global in stature, their impact will initially influence security interdependencies at the state and regional levels. Regional security complex theory is a methodological attempt to explain why traditional – military and political – security interdependencies trigger the aggregation of geographically contiguous states into regional groupings defined by the social condition of amity or enmity. However, strictures embedded within this typology prevent the same methodology from being used to explain regionalisation when threats arise from non-traditional sources or the affected states lack geographic contiguity. To overcome this methodological impediment, this thesis proposes a theoretical enlargement – a “hybrid” theory – which combines methodologies drawn from sector security analysis with essential elements of “externalities” and “Shatterbelts” drawn from Regional Orders and Geopolitics ontologies respectively. To test the authority of the “hybrid” theory, two futuristic scenarios are composed, each representing a possible, even probable, future for the two Polar Regions. Each scenario depicts the world in the year 2035, when the human population and individual wealth will likely be of a magnitude greater than they are today and when the world is also detrimentally affected by an increasingly inclement climate and the declining availability of natural resources. Common to both scenarios are potential changes to the political world order and the growing worldwide influence of emerging great powers in Asia and Latin America. In the contemporary Arctic, the future is already being determined by the inimical politics of oil. In a scenario where the Arctic region has become progressively less sanguine, the “hybrid” theory suggests that antagonisms between Arctic-rim countries will forge the establishment of at least one security complex. There will, therefore, be a security response to the region-wide competition for resources. As the twenty-first century unfolds, the presence in the Arctic of non-Arctic states as resource competitors heightens the probability that established security complexes will transmute into conflict prone shatterbelts. The Antarctic Treaty currently prohibits both the commercialisation and militarisation of the continent. It is an institutional regime that is not due to be reviewed until mid-century. Antarctica is a continent like no other for its legal status remains ill-defined and the existing seven territorial claims attract no universal endorsement. Given this political environment, the “hybrid” theory suggests, that in a world experiencing a severe shortage of resources no security complex will form in Antarctica but, instead the region will become a shatterbelt or the loci for resource wars.

text: MacKinder meets Buzan: A Geopolitical Extension to Security complex Theory with an emphasis on the Polar Regions Throughout the centuries interstate wars have been fought over territory to satisfy the requirement of states’ to secure sufficient land and resources to meet the lifestyle needs and economic aspirations of their citizens. While in the past, the conditions precipitating war were predominantly anthropogenic in their origin, in the twenty-first century, wars are increasingly likely to be the consequence of worldwide environmental degradation. Two environmental conditions that have paralleled humanity’s unceasing drive for wealth and prosperity are becoming significant threats to the security of every state: these threats are global climate change and natural resource scarcity. Although these two threats are global in stature, their impact will initially influence security interdependencies at the state and regional levels. Regional security complex theory is a methodological attempt to explain why traditional – military and political – security interdependencies trigger the aggregation of geographically contiguous states into regional groupings defined by the social condition of amity or enmity. However, strictures embedded within this typology prevent the same methodology from being used to explain regionalisation when threats arise from non-traditional sources or the affected states lack geographic contiguity. To overcome this methodological impediment, this thesis proposes a theoretical enlargement – a “hybrid” theory – which combines methodologies drawn from sector security analysis with essential elements of “externalities” and “Shatterbelts” drawn from Regional Orders and Geopolitics ontologies respectively. To test the authority of the “hybrid” theory, two futuristic scenarios are composed, each representing a possible, even probable, future for the two Polar Regions. Each scenario depicts the world in the year 2035, when the human population and individual wealth will likely be of a magnitude greater than they are today and when the world is also detrimentally affected by an increasingly inclement climate and the declining availability of natural resources. Common to both scenarios are potential changes to the political world order and the growing worldwide influence of emerging great powers in Asia and Latin America. In the contemporary Arctic, the future is already being determined by the inimical politics of oil. In a scenario where the Arctic region has become progressively less sanguine, the “hybrid” theory suggests that antagonisms between Arctic-rim countries will forge the establishment of at least one security complex. There will, therefore, be a security response to the region-wide competition for resources. As the twenty-first century unfolds, the presence in the Arctic of non-Arctic states as resource competitors heightens the probability that established security complexes will transmute into conflict prone shatterbelts. The Antarctic Treaty currently prohibits both the commercialisation and militarisation of the continent. It is an institutional regime that is not due to be reviewed until mid-century. Antarctica is a continent like no other for its legal status remains ill-defined and the existing seven territorial claims attract no universal endorsement. Given this political environment, the “hybrid” theory suggests, that in a world experiencing a severe shortage of resources no security complex will form in Antarctica but, instead the region will become a shatterbelt or the loci for resource wars.

year: 2011

title: Leveraging bagging for evolving data streams

authors: Bifet, Albert

subjects: computer science

abstract: Bagging, boosting and Random Forests are classical ensemble methods used to improve the performance of single classifiers. They obtain superior performance by increasing the accuracy and diversity of the single classifiers. Attempts have been made to reproduce these methods in the more challenging context of evolving data streams. In this paper, we propose a new variant of bagging, called leveraging bagging. This method combines the simplicity of bagging with adding more randomization to the input, and output of the classifiers. We test our method by performing an evaluation study on synthetic and real-world datasets comprising up to ten million examples.

text: Leveraging bagging for evolving data streams Bagging, boosting and Random Forests are classical ensemble methods used to improve the performance of single classifiers. They obtain superior performance by increasing the accuracy and diversity of the single classifiers. Attempts have been made to reproduce these methods in the more challenging context of evolving data streams. In this paper, we propose a new variant of bagging, called leveraging bagging. This method combines the simplicity of bagging with adding more randomization to the input, and output of the classifiers. We test our method by performing an evaluation study on synthetic and real-world datasets comprising up to ten million examples.

year: 2010

title: “It was… like a fight and rape club”: A foucauldian discourse analysis of New Zealand’s abuse in care inquiry, exploring child sexual abuse in residential care

authors: Simpson, Karen

subjects: child sexual abuse

abstract: Children and adolescents brought to the attention of New Zealand care and protection authorities are sometimes removed from their homes and placed into State-run residential care facilities. While the aim placing young people into residences is to improve their wellbeing, child sexual abuse is common in this setting and more pronounced than in the general population. There are many psychological theories, perspectives and movements which have attempted to explain child sexual abuse spanning from the 1800s to the present day. These partial and, at times, unsupported understandings of abuse have been shaped by socio-cultural and socio-political conditions. This has had serious implications for our collective (mis)understanding of child sexual abuse and the ways in which we respond to abuse with dominant discourse often transcending into policy, law, and the courtroom where social (in)justice occurs. In addition, despite there being three centuries of child sexual abuse research, to-date there has been limited exploration of the phenomenon in residential care settings both globally and within Aotearoa. However, the opportunity to explore child sexual abuse in this setting has availed itself with the New Zealand Government launching a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care in 2018 to better understand abuse across State and faith-based settings between 1950 and 1999. This thesis aims to provide additional insights to the inquiry by exploring the different ways in which child sexual abuse in residential care is understood as well as the conditions which legitimise or silence these understandings.

A Foucauldian Discourse Analysis was used to analyse 47 publicly available documents from the inquiry including statements, transcripts, and evidence briefs from survivors, survivor advocates, counsel, and representatives from institutions that provide care and protection for young people. Analysis found six discourses: control and punishment, fabrication, harmful, power and oppression, shameful, and State and institutional failure. These discourses reaffirm previous findings in sexual abuse research including sexual abuse as shameful and notions of fabrication. New insights were also found and include the use of sexual abuse as a method of controlling and punishing young people; predatory sexual behaviour in young people as a method of self-protection; cultural genocide and intergenerational care placement as victim sequelae; and the development of adaptive survival behaviours in residents in response to the State’s failures to protect them. In addition, systemic failures were uncovered including inadequacies in internal and external monitoring, failures in vetting, poor investment in professional capabilities of frontline workers, and a culture of tolerance toward abuse. Overall, the analysis found cultures of sexual violence and cultures of tolerance toward abuse within residential care, which emerge from the young person’s status as a State Ward.

text: “It was… like a fight and rape club”: A foucauldian discourse analysis of New Zealand’s abuse in care inquiry, exploring child sexual abuse in residential care Children and adolescents brought to the attention of New Zealand care and protection authorities are sometimes removed from their homes and placed into State-run residential care facilities. While the aim placing young people into residences is to improve their wellbeing, child sexual abuse is common in this setting and more pronounced than in the general population. There are many psychological theories, perspectives and movements which have attempted to explain child sexual abuse spanning from the 1800s to the present day. These partial and, at times, unsupported understandings of abuse have been shaped by socio-cultural and socio-political conditions. This has had serious implications for our collective (mis)understanding of child sexual abuse and the ways in which we respond to abuse with dominant discourse often transcending into policy, law, and the courtroom where social (in)justice occurs. In addition, despite there being three centuries of child sexual abuse research, to-date there has been limited exploration of the phenomenon in residential care settings both globally and within Aotearoa. However, the opportunity to explore child sexual abuse in this setting has availed itself with the New Zealand Government launching a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care in 2018 to better understand abuse across State and faith-based settings between 1950 and 1999. This thesis aims to provide additional insights to the inquiry by exploring the different ways in which child sexual abuse in residential care is understood as well as the conditions which legitimise or silence these understandings.

A Foucauldian Discourse Analysis was used to analyse 47 publicly available documents from the inquiry including statements, transcripts, and evidence briefs from survivors, survivor advocates, counsel, and representatives from institutions that provide care and protection for young people. Analysis found six discourses: control and punishment, fabrication, harmful, power and oppression, shameful, and State and institutional failure. These discourses reaffirm previous findings in sexual abuse research including sexual abuse as shameful and notions of fabrication. New insights were also found and include the use of sexual abuse as a method of controlling and punishing young people; predatory sexual behaviour in young people as a method of self-protection; cultural genocide and intergenerational care placement as victim sequelae; and the development of adaptive survival behaviours in residents in response to the State’s failures to protect them. In addition, systemic failures were uncovered including inadequacies in internal and external monitoring, failures in vetting, poor investment in professional capabilities of frontline workers, and a culture of tolerance toward abuse. Overall, the analysis found cultures of sexual violence and cultures of tolerance toward abuse within residential care, which emerge from the young person’s status as a State Ward.

year: 2024-02-25