title: Extreme value modelling for forecasting market crisis impacts

authors: Zhao, Xin

abstract: This article introduces a new approach for estimating Value at Risk (VaR), which is then used to show the likelihood of the impacts of the current financial crisis. A commonly used two-stage approach is taken, by combining a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility model with a novel extreme value mixture model for the innovations. The proposed mixture model permits any distribution function for the main mode of the innovations, with the very flexible Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for the upper and lower tails. A major advance with the mixture model is that it overcomes the problems with threshold choice in traditional methods as it is treated as a parameter in the model to be estimated. The model describes the tail distribution of both the losses and gains simultaneously, which is natural for financial applications. As the threshold is treated as a parameter, the uncertainty from its estimation is accounted for, which is a challenging and often overlooked problem in traditional approaches. The model is shown to be sufficiently flexible that it can be directly applied to reliably estimate the likelihood of impact of the financial crisis on stock and index returns.

text: Extreme value modelling for forecasting market crisis impacts This article introduces a new approach for estimating Value at Risk (VaR), which is then used to show the likelihood of the impacts of the current financial crisis. A commonly used two-stage approach is taken, by combining a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility model with a novel extreme value mixture model for the innovations. The proposed mixture model permits any distribution function for the main mode of the innovations, with the very flexible Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for the upper and lower tails. A major advance with the mixture model is that it overcomes the problems with threshold choice in traditional methods as it is treated as a parameter in the model to be estimated. The model describes the tail distribution of both the losses and gains simultaneously, which is natural for financial applications. As the threshold is treated as a parameter, the uncertainty from its estimation is accounted for, which is a challenging and often overlooked problem in traditional approaches. The model is shown to be sufficiently flexible that it can be directly applied to reliably estimate the likelihood of impact of the financial crisis on stock and index returns.

year: 2010

title: Love on the line: The social dynamics involved with people meeting other people using New Zealand online dating sites

authors: Marsh, Maureen Margaret

subjects: online dating; online infidelity; sexual experimentation; 'difference'

abstract: The intention of this thesis is to explore whether New Zealand trends in online dating parallel those identified by overseas studies, or whether patterns are emerging that are unique to New Zealand society.  The Internet Windows Messenger instant messenger service (MSN) was used to interview 32 subjects about their experiences with online dating, covering areas such as motivation for using online dating; types of relationships sought; barriers to online dating; online rapport and offline chemistry; online infidelity; and managing 'difference'.  Drawing on these responses, this thesis presents findings pertaining to a diverse group of New Zealanders' attitudes towards and uses of online dating.  Some of the key findings show that online rapport does not guarantee offline chemistry; that there are gender differences in attitudes towards appearance, age, and receiving sexually explicit material online; and that sexual experimentation and infidelity are being facilitated through online dating.  

The issue of 'difference' as it relates to online dating has been largely neglected by overseas researchers, and for this reason was extensively included in this research.  Key findings relating to 'difference' show that there is a clear split between those interviewees whose 'difference' impacted positively on their online dating experience (those with sexual 'difference' falling into this category), and those whose 'difference' impacted negatively (those with physical or mental 'difference'). In addition, those interviewees with a sexual 'difference' have been able to connect with other like-minded people through online dating, contributing to the 'normalization' of previously considered deviant behaviours. 

Based on the research presented in this thesis, it appears that New Zealand online dating activities are consistent with overseas trends, although there are indications that some behaviour may be more specific to New Zealand society, such as gender differences in relation to bisexuality, and covert same-sex encounters involving men who are either married or who state in their profiles that they are 'straight' or heterosexual.

text: Love on the line: The social dynamics involved with people meeting other people using New Zealand online dating sites The intention of this thesis is to explore whether New Zealand trends in online dating parallel those identified by overseas studies, or whether patterns are emerging that are unique to New Zealand society.  The Internet Windows Messenger instant messenger service (MSN) was used to interview 32 subjects about their experiences with online dating, covering areas such as motivation for using online dating; types of relationships sought; barriers to online dating; online rapport and offline chemistry; online infidelity; and managing 'difference'.  Drawing on these responses, this thesis presents findings pertaining to a diverse group of New Zealanders' attitudes towards and uses of online dating.  Some of the key findings show that online rapport does not guarantee offline chemistry; that there are gender differences in attitudes towards appearance, age, and receiving sexually explicit material online; and that sexual experimentation and infidelity are being facilitated through online dating.  

The issue of 'difference' as it relates to online dating has been largely neglected by overseas researchers, and for this reason was extensively included in this research.  Key findings relating to 'difference' show that there is a clear split between those interviewees whose 'difference' impacted positively on their online dating experience (those with sexual 'difference' falling into this category), and those whose 'difference' impacted negatively (those with physical or mental 'difference'). In addition, those interviewees with a sexual 'difference' have been able to connect with other like-minded people through online dating, contributing to the 'normalization' of previously considered deviant behaviours. 

Based on the research presented in this thesis, it appears that New Zealand online dating activities are consistent with overseas trends, although there are indications that some behaviour may be more specific to New Zealand society, such as gender differences in relation to bisexuality, and covert same-sex encounters involving men who are either married or who state in their profiles that they are 'straight' or heterosexual.

year: 2007

title: The intergenerational perpetuation of achievement messages in whānau

authors: Southey, Kim Marie

subjects: Maori

abstract: The current research is an open exploration of achievement messages that are carried from generation to generation in whānau, in relation to the mainstream education system of Aotearoa. Participant groups comprised of two to three generations within each whānau. A maximum of eight whānau will be asked to participate. A series of continuous conversations will be held with each member of the whānau, reminiscent of the narrative approach, but most recently described as a methodology that allows for ensuring that data is collected in its fullest form.
Differing views about achievement and how it is negotiated within whānau will be explored; along with issues on what, and who, within whānau are the most predominant indicators of achievement views. Detracting from an ethnocentric view of scholastic ability (a common marker for achievement) is done through abandoning mainstream ideals. This research favours an open exploration approach allowing for differing values about what constitutes achievement, and what context achievement is based in. Outcomes of the research are intended to show patterns within whānau and among Māori on the mainstream school system, and how this system has contributed to achievement messages. The positive or negative nature of the contribution from mainstream education is highly important and relevant to further research goals, including the ability to use outcomes to suggest social change in education provision for Māori.

text: The intergenerational perpetuation of achievement messages in whānau The current research is an open exploration of achievement messages that are carried from generation to generation in whānau, in relation to the mainstream education system of Aotearoa. Participant groups comprised of two to three generations within each whānau. A maximum of eight whānau will be asked to participate. A series of continuous conversations will be held with each member of the whānau, reminiscent of the narrative approach, but most recently described as a methodology that allows for ensuring that data is collected in its fullest form.
Differing views about achievement and how it is negotiated within whānau will be explored; along with issues on what, and who, within whānau are the most predominant indicators of achievement views. Detracting from an ethnocentric view of scholastic ability (a common marker for achievement) is done through abandoning mainstream ideals. This research favours an open exploration approach allowing for differing values about what constitutes achievement, and what context achievement is based in. Outcomes of the research are intended to show patterns within whānau and among Māori on the mainstream school system, and how this system has contributed to achievement messages. The positive or negative nature of the contribution from mainstream education is highly important and relevant to further research goals, including the ability to use outcomes to suggest social change in education provision for Māori.

year: 2003