title: A simple graphical technique for conditional long range forecasting of below-average rainfall periods in the Tuvalu Islands, Western Pacific

authors: Bardsley, W. Earl

subjects: NINO4

abstract: For the Tuvalu Island group in the western Pacific, a simple graphical method is proposed as a means of forecasting whether rainfall totals for the next 1, 2,…,6 months will be below average. The method is based on scatter plots where the points are color-coded as above- or below-average rainfall, with the plot axes being lag-1 and lag-2 NINO4 sea surface temperatures. Within the scatter plots there are reasonably clear data fields with higher frequencies of below-average rainfalls associated with cooler precursor NINO4 temperatures. These data fields are defined by subjectively emplaced separation lines which bifurcate the scatter plots into “predictable” and “unpredictable” fields. If two precursor NINO4 temperature values define a point located in a predictable field then a warning would be issued for below-average rainfall over the next n-month period, depending on the time scale of the scatter plot. A long rainfall record at Funafuti in Tuvalu indicates that success in predictable-field forecasting of below-average rainfalls would range between 68% for 1-month rainfall totals and 89% for 6-month totals. The forecasting success derives from persistence of cooler NINO4 sea surface temperatures which are associated with lower rainfalls in Tuvalu. However, many dry periods are also located in the unpredictable field and cannot be forecast by this method.

text: A simple graphical technique for conditional long range forecasting of below-average rainfall periods in the Tuvalu Islands, Western Pacific For the Tuvalu Island group in the western Pacific, a simple graphical method is proposed as a means of forecasting whether rainfall totals for the next 1, 2,…,6 months will be below average. The method is based on scatter plots where the points are color-coded as above- or below-average rainfall, with the plot axes being lag-1 and lag-2 NINO4 sea surface temperatures. Within the scatter plots there are reasonably clear data fields with higher frequencies of below-average rainfalls associated with cooler precursor NINO4 temperatures. These data fields are defined by subjectively emplaced separation lines which bifurcate the scatter plots into “predictable” and “unpredictable” fields. If two precursor NINO4 temperature values define a point located in a predictable field then a warning would be issued for below-average rainfall over the next n-month period, depending on the time scale of the scatter plot. A long rainfall record at Funafuti in Tuvalu indicates that success in predictable-field forecasting of below-average rainfalls would range between 68% for 1-month rainfall totals and 89% for 6-month totals. The forecasting success derives from persistence of cooler NINO4 sea surface temperatures which are associated with lower rainfalls in Tuvalu. However, many dry periods are also located in the unpredictable field and cannot be forecast by this method.

year: 2009

title: Reforming women in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand: A comparative ethnography of welfare reform in global context

authors: Kingfisher, Catherine

subjects: welfare reform

abstract: Historically, the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand symbolize opposite poles of an individualist-collectivist welfare state continuum. Until recently, Aotearoa/New Zealand was known as a "cradle-to-grave" welfare state, with "universal" employment and coverage in health and education. U.S. history, in contrast, is marked by an unabashed individualism and a residualist approach to welfare. Recent neoliberal reforms, however, have engendered a convergence between the two countries in the conceptualization and organization of assistance for poor single mothers. Most notable are the "workfare" provisions of legislative changes made in 1996 in the two countries, which work to reconstitute poor mothers as potential able-bodied workers. In this article we analyze welfare reform in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand, with particular reference to how poor single mothers respond to, comply and cope with, or resist neoliberal strategies. Analysis is based on participant-observation, interviews, and focus groups conducted between 1989 and 1999.

text: Reforming women in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand: A comparative ethnography of welfare reform in global context Historically, the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand symbolize opposite poles of an individualist-collectivist welfare state continuum. Until recently, Aotearoa/New Zealand was known as a "cradle-to-grave" welfare state, with "universal" employment and coverage in health and education. U.S. history, in contrast, is marked by an unabashed individualism and a residualist approach to welfare. Recent neoliberal reforms, however, have engendered a convergence between the two countries in the conceptualization and organization of assistance for poor single mothers. Most notable are the "workfare" provisions of legislative changes made in 1996 in the two countries, which work to reconstitute poor mothers as potential able-bodied workers. In this article we analyze welfare reform in the United States and Aotearoa/New Zealand, with particular reference to how poor single mothers respond to, comply and cope with, or resist neoliberal strategies. Analysis is based on participant-observation, interviews, and focus groups conducted between 1989 and 1999.

year: 2001

title: Enacting Kaitiakitanga Challenges and Complexities in the Governance and Ownership of Rongoā Research Information.

authors: Boulton, Amohia

subjects: Indigenous

abstract: This article explores the tensions one research team has faced in securing appropriate governance or stewardship (which we refer to as kaitiakitanga) of research data. Whilst ethical and regulatory frameworks exist which provide a minimum standard for researchers to meet when working with Māori, what our experience has highlighted is there is currently a “governance” gap in terms of who should hold stewardship of research data collected from Māori individuals or collectives. In the case of a project undertaken in the traditional healing space, the organisation best placed to fulfil this governance role receives no funding or support to take on such a responsibility; consequently by default, this role is being borne by the research team until such time as capacity can be built and adequate resourcing secured. In addition, we have realised that the tensions played out in this research project have implications for the broader issue of how we protect traditional knowledge in a modern intellectual property law context, and once again how we adequately support those, often community-based organisations, who work at the interface between Indigenous knowledge and the Western world.

text: Enacting Kaitiakitanga Challenges and Complexities in the Governance and Ownership of Rongoā Research Information. This article explores the tensions one research team has faced in securing appropriate governance or stewardship (which we refer to as kaitiakitanga) of research data. Whilst ethical and regulatory frameworks exist which provide a minimum standard for researchers to meet when working with Māori, what our experience has highlighted is there is currently a “governance” gap in terms of who should hold stewardship of research data collected from Māori individuals or collectives. In the case of a project undertaken in the traditional healing space, the organisation best placed to fulfil this governance role receives no funding or support to take on such a responsibility; consequently by default, this role is being borne by the research team until such time as capacity can be built and adequate resourcing secured. In addition, we have realised that the tensions played out in this research project have implications for the broader issue of how we protect traditional knowledge in a modern intellectual property law context, and once again how we adequately support those, often community-based organisations, who work at the interface between Indigenous knowledge and the Western world.

year: 2014