title: In silico comparison of continuous glucose monitor failure mode strategies for an artificial pancreas

authors: Lu, Yunjie

subjects: computer science

abstract: An artificial pancreas is a medical Internet of Thingsbased system consisting of a continuous glucose monitor, an insulin pump, and a micro-controller. The use of artificial pancreas systems is becoming increasingly popular amongst patients with type 1 diabetes due to its effective ability to allow the patient better control of his/her own blood glucose levels compared to other more standard treatments. In this paper, the problem of missing sensor readings in the glucose monitor data is considered. How should the microcontroller (which adjusts the insulin pump based on monitor readings) react when the glucose monitor stops transmitting for an unpredictable period of time? A strategy that answers this question is called a failure mode strategy. In this paper, several potential failure mode strategies are explored in the context of simulation experiments. Results are presented showing that at least one effective and simple failure mode strategy (0.5µ & LR<72) exists.

text: In silico comparison of continuous glucose monitor failure mode strategies for an artificial pancreas An artificial pancreas is a medical Internet of Thingsbased system consisting of a continuous glucose monitor, an insulin pump, and a micro-controller. The use of artificial pancreas systems is becoming increasingly popular amongst patients with type 1 diabetes due to its effective ability to allow the patient better control of his/her own blood glucose levels compared to other more standard treatments. In this paper, the problem of missing sensor readings in the glucose monitor data is considered. How should the microcontroller (which adjusts the insulin pump based on monitor readings) react when the glucose monitor stops transmitting for an unpredictable period of time? A strategy that answers this question is called a failure mode strategy. In this paper, several potential failure mode strategies are explored in the context of simulation experiments. Results are presented showing that at least one effective and simple failure mode strategy (0.5µ & LR<72) exists.

year: 2020

title: The utility of the psychopathy checklist- screening version for predicting serious violent recidivism in a New Zealand offender sample

authors: Wilson, Nicol John

abstract: This study set out to evaluate the ability of the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL: SV) to predict criminal reoffending by New Zealand offenders convicted of previous serious violent offences. Psychopathy has been identified in a large number of overseas studies as a significant risk factor for general reoffending and in particular for violent reoffending. Using a retrospective-prospective design, a representative sample (N = 199; 48% of Māori descent) was selected from a database of male offenders serving sentences of seven years or more, the majority for violent crimes, who had been released into the community for a minimum of five years. 

Inmate institutional file information up to the time of their release was used to score the PCL: SV. Current offender criminal records were then accessed to establish if recidivism had occurred since release, and if so, the type of sentence imposed and the seriousness of the reoffending. In addition, PCL: SV scores were compared to two static actuarial measures of recidivism in use by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. The PCL: SV total, Factor 1, and Factor 2 scores correlated .50, .37, and .53, respectively with reconviction, and .49, .40, and .47 respectively with reimprisonment. Both discriminant function analysis (Wilkes Lambda = .79) and Receiver Operator Curve analysis (AUC = .80) confirmed the overall predictive accuracy of the PCL: SV for serious violent reoffending and its ability to add support to actuarial instruments based solely on static risk predictors. 

The unique nature of this contribution was supported by regression analysis identifying that PCL: SV Factor 1 scores, regarded as measuring core psychopathic traits, had a high negative correlation (r = -.41) with time to reimprisonment for violent offences. The final part of the study involved an investigation into the ‘false positive’ group (N = 32). Men with PCL: SV scores of 16 or greater but no further offending resulting in reimprisonment within five years of release. The study of this group was carried out to establish if indeed they were low risk, and to explore the strategies they used to reduce their risk. A number were found to have died or to have committed serious offending that was not originally detected (n = 5) reducing the false positive rate to 24% (sensitivity 76% and specificity of 24%). 

A structured interview was administered focused on post-release problems and strategies that also included a psychometric battery measuring static and dynamic risk variables, anger, personality pathology, and interpersonal and affective deficits. The results from those agreeing to be interviewed (n = 14) found the majority continued to experience regular thoughts about potential criminal acts and were still assessed at high recidivism risk, but the majority used strategies such as increased control over substance abuse, avoidance of criminal friends and family, and geographic isolation to reduce engaging in serious crime. In addition, ill health and the debilitating effects from their high-risk criminal lifestyle (accidents, substance abuse, and long sentences of imprisonment) had reduced their ability to engage in violent criminal activity. 

It was concluded that the PCL: SV has a high level of predictive validity in predicting serious reoffending for a New Zealand male offender population. The research has been successful in adding to the growing body of knowledge on the ability of the PCL: SV and the concept of psychopathy to predict serious recidivism by criminal populations. Evidence was found of a strong relation between PCL: SV Factor 1 scores and speed of violent reoffending supporting the special ability of the psychopathic personality construct to predict violent behaviour. The follow-up of the false positive group helped to account for part of the false positive decision error rate and has provided further support for the predictive accuracy of the PCL: SV and its inclusion in comprehensive risk assessment. In addition, insights into the beliefs and lifestyles of this parole group were gained that will assist in the development of effective correctional re-integrative initiatives and accurate parole decision-making.

text: The utility of the psychopathy checklist- screening version for predicting serious violent recidivism in a New Zealand offender sample This study set out to evaluate the ability of the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL: SV) to predict criminal reoffending by New Zealand offenders convicted of previous serious violent offences. Psychopathy has been identified in a large number of overseas studies as a significant risk factor for general reoffending and in particular for violent reoffending. Using a retrospective-prospective design, a representative sample (N = 199; 48% of Māori descent) was selected from a database of male offenders serving sentences of seven years or more, the majority for violent crimes, who had been released into the community for a minimum of five years. 

Inmate institutional file information up to the time of their release was used to score the PCL: SV. Current offender criminal records were then accessed to establish if recidivism had occurred since release, and if so, the type of sentence imposed and the seriousness of the reoffending. In addition, PCL: SV scores were compared to two static actuarial measures of recidivism in use by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. The PCL: SV total, Factor 1, and Factor 2 scores correlated .50, .37, and .53, respectively with reconviction, and .49, .40, and .47 respectively with reimprisonment. Both discriminant function analysis (Wilkes Lambda = .79) and Receiver Operator Curve analysis (AUC = .80) confirmed the overall predictive accuracy of the PCL: SV for serious violent reoffending and its ability to add support to actuarial instruments based solely on static risk predictors. 

The unique nature of this contribution was supported by regression analysis identifying that PCL: SV Factor 1 scores, regarded as measuring core psychopathic traits, had a high negative correlation (r = -.41) with time to reimprisonment for violent offences. The final part of the study involved an investigation into the ‘false positive’ group (N = 32). Men with PCL: SV scores of 16 or greater but no further offending resulting in reimprisonment within five years of release. The study of this group was carried out to establish if indeed they were low risk, and to explore the strategies they used to reduce their risk. A number were found to have died or to have committed serious offending that was not originally detected (n = 5) reducing the false positive rate to 24% (sensitivity 76% and specificity of 24%). 

A structured interview was administered focused on post-release problems and strategies that also included a psychometric battery measuring static and dynamic risk variables, anger, personality pathology, and interpersonal and affective deficits. The results from those agreeing to be interviewed (n = 14) found the majority continued to experience regular thoughts about potential criminal acts and were still assessed at high recidivism risk, but the majority used strategies such as increased control over substance abuse, avoidance of criminal friends and family, and geographic isolation to reduce engaging in serious crime. In addition, ill health and the debilitating effects from their high-risk criminal lifestyle (accidents, substance abuse, and long sentences of imprisonment) had reduced their ability to engage in violent criminal activity. 

It was concluded that the PCL: SV has a high level of predictive validity in predicting serious reoffending for a New Zealand male offender population. The research has been successful in adding to the growing body of knowledge on the ability of the PCL: SV and the concept of psychopathy to predict serious recidivism by criminal populations. Evidence was found of a strong relation between PCL: SV Factor 1 scores and speed of violent reoffending supporting the special ability of the psychopathic personality construct to predict violent behaviour. The follow-up of the false positive group helped to account for part of the false positive decision error rate and has provided further support for the predictive accuracy of the PCL: SV and its inclusion in comprehensive risk assessment. In addition, insights into the beliefs and lifestyles of this parole group were gained that will assist in the development of effective correctional re-integrative initiatives and accurate parole decision-making.

year: 2003

title: Human dimensions of global environmental change: A review of frameworks and research gaps.

authors: Urich, Peter

subjects: global environmental change

abstract: This review of current knowledge in, and development of, priorities for research into the human dimensions of global environmental change has been conducted to assist the Foundation for Research Science and Technology to formulate their research needs agenda. An overview of the emergence of the human dimension of the global environmental change research field is used as a prelude to a review of the international literature on frameworks for conducting human dimensions research. The terminology used in the human dimension field is diverse. An attempt is therefore made to consolidate the myriad of definitions for key concepts, in order to form a basis for human dimensions research in New Zealand and build a platform for the remainder of this report. Three disciplinary areas of academic inquiry were explored in the context of human dimensions of global environmental change research: economics, law and biological sciences. These disciplinary perspectives are reviewed through the international literature and in a New Zealand context. A conceptual framework for research into the human dimensions of global environmental change is provided based on the knowledge-base developed from the both international and New Zealand research. Core concepts, such as found in multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary research are reviewed in historical context to form the basis for a specific research framework for New Zealand. Some general needs for research are derived from the New Zealand framework. The remainder of this report details the methods used for drawing out expert opinion on the priorities for research on the human dimensions of global environmental change in the context of information, knowledge and method. Thirty-eight interviews and two hui were conducted and 254 research needs defined by questions were obtained. A modified Delphi technique was applied to the questions and prioritised lists of responses are provided. The final list
Provides European/Pakeha and Māori perspectives. Divergence and convergence between the European/Pakeha and Māori responses is provided, as well as justification for the prioritisation stance that is taken. This research had four outputs: A conceptual framework for considering the human dimensions of global environmental changes and research contributions; A description of the gaps in knowledge that impede effective response to global change and provisional research needs: one for New Zealand generally, and one on Māori in particular; A network of end-users and research providers that are cognisant of, and contributors to, the human dimensions research assessment; A set of priority research needs pertaining to the human dimensions of global environmental change, in a form suitable for use by FRST.

text: Human dimensions of global environmental change: A review of frameworks and research gaps. This review of current knowledge in, and development of, priorities for research into the human dimensions of global environmental change has been conducted to assist the Foundation for Research Science and Technology to formulate their research needs agenda. An overview of the emergence of the human dimension of the global environmental change research field is used as a prelude to a review of the international literature on frameworks for conducting human dimensions research. The terminology used in the human dimension field is diverse. An attempt is therefore made to consolidate the myriad of definitions for key concepts, in order to form a basis for human dimensions research in New Zealand and build a platform for the remainder of this report. Three disciplinary areas of academic inquiry were explored in the context of human dimensions of global environmental change research: economics, law and biological sciences. These disciplinary perspectives are reviewed through the international literature and in a New Zealand context. A conceptual framework for research into the human dimensions of global environmental change is provided based on the knowledge-base developed from the both international and New Zealand research. Core concepts, such as found in multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary research are reviewed in historical context to form the basis for a specific research framework for New Zealand. Some general needs for research are derived from the New Zealand framework. The remainder of this report details the methods used for drawing out expert opinion on the priorities for research on the human dimensions of global environmental change in the context of information, knowledge and method. Thirty-eight interviews and two hui were conducted and 254 research needs defined by questions were obtained. A modified Delphi technique was applied to the questions and prioritised lists of responses are provided. The final list
Provides European/Pakeha and Māori perspectives. Divergence and convergence between the European/Pakeha and Māori responses is provided, as well as justification for the prioritisation stance that is taken. This research had four outputs: A conceptual framework for considering the human dimensions of global environmental changes and research contributions; A description of the gaps in knowledge that impede effective response to global change and provisional research needs: one for New Zealand generally, and one on Māori in particular; A network of end-users and research providers that are cognisant of, and contributors to, the human dimensions research assessment; A set of priority research needs pertaining to the human dimensions of global environmental change, in a form suitable for use by FRST.

year: 2005-12-01