title: The evolution of China’s nuclear weapons program and doctrine and its implications for international security

authors: Abbasi, Khusrow Akkas

subjects: International Relations

abstract: As China’s power in the international system increases, its strategic policies are changing. This includes its nuclear weapons program and nuclear deterrent policy, viewed as a critical guarantor of Beijing’s security and a tool that supports its growing regional and global interests. China’s evolving nuclear program and doctrine have multidimensional implications. This study critically examines the drivers of China’s ongoing nuclear weapons policy and force modernization by employing neoclassical realism. In doing so, it considers the implications of China’s nuclear program for international and regional security, and for strategic stability by exploring relevant case studies and dyads (China- US, China-Japan, China-South Korea, China-India, and China-Taiwan) and speculates on the future trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons modernization. In this context, China’s contemporary nuclear weapons force modernization is an ongoing process that started in late 2015 under President Xi Jinping’s rule.
The hypothesis of this thesis extends from this line of thinking, holding that the emerging nuclear program of China is increasing regional and international strategic insecurity. This involves China, the US and other regional powers, manifested in a “security dilemma”.1 An empirical and analytical approach is used to evaluate the hypothesis and critically deconstruct prevailing discourses. The methodology employs deductive reasoning that uses existing theory as a foundation for formulating and testing the hypothesis.
The findings show that China’s nuclear weapons policy and ongoing force modernization drivers are primarily structural. However, internal factors within China, such as its leadership and economic development, and bureaucratic competition between different services of the PLA also play a significant role in shaping China’s emerging full-spectrum deterrence posture calibrated towards limited nuclear war fighting. This breeds a spiral of insecurity vis-a-vis the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, is leading to greater strategic and crisis instability and an intensified security dilemma.

text: The evolution of China’s nuclear weapons program and doctrine and its implications for international security As China’s power in the international system increases, its strategic policies are changing. This includes its nuclear weapons program and nuclear deterrent policy, viewed as a critical guarantor of Beijing’s security and a tool that supports its growing regional and global interests. China’s evolving nuclear program and doctrine have multidimensional implications. This study critically examines the drivers of China’s ongoing nuclear weapons policy and force modernization by employing neoclassical realism. In doing so, it considers the implications of China’s nuclear program for international and regional security, and for strategic stability by exploring relevant case studies and dyads (China- US, China-Japan, China-South Korea, China-India, and China-Taiwan) and speculates on the future trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons modernization. In this context, China’s contemporary nuclear weapons force modernization is an ongoing process that started in late 2015 under President Xi Jinping’s rule.
The hypothesis of this thesis extends from this line of thinking, holding that the emerging nuclear program of China is increasing regional and international strategic insecurity. This involves China, the US and other regional powers, manifested in a “security dilemma”.1 An empirical and analytical approach is used to evaluate the hypothesis and critically deconstruct prevailing discourses. The methodology employs deductive reasoning that uses existing theory as a foundation for formulating and testing the hypothesis.
The findings show that China’s nuclear weapons policy and ongoing force modernization drivers are primarily structural. However, internal factors within China, such as its leadership and economic development, and bureaucratic competition between different services of the PLA also play a significant role in shaping China’s emerging full-spectrum deterrence posture calibrated towards limited nuclear war fighting. This breeds a spiral of insecurity vis-a-vis the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, is leading to greater strategic and crisis instability and an intensified security dilemma.

year: 2022

title: Minimum drain setback distances to protect New Zealand wetlands: tool development

authors: Blyth, James

abstract: This report documents the development of a Wetland Drain Setback Tool (WDST) for New Zealand freshwater wetlands. The purpose of this tool is to assess the potential effects of historical and new drains on wetland ecosystems and provide guidance on appropriate setback distances to protect these ecosystems from adverse effects due to lowered water levels.

The WDST directly supports the implementation of the National Environmental Standards for Freshwater (NES-F), which were established in 2020 to protect and restore wetlands. These standards prohibit earthworks or modifications to the water cycle within or near wetlands unless exempted for specific reasons like wetland restoration. However, there is a lack of national guidance on acceptable water level declines for different wetland types.

The specific goals of this project were to develop and evaluate the viability of the WDST for New Zealand conditions and recommend subsequent steps for its development. The project involved five key steps:

1. Development of a conceptual model to evaluate how drain systems affect wetland hydrology.
2. Representation of the drain-wetland model in numerical software.
3. Collection of site-specific data to refine and validate the numerical modeling approach.
4. Application of conceptual and numerical models to a hypothetical drain development scenario.
5. Development of two national-scale datasets on hydraulic conductivity and Land Surface Recharge to provide input data in the absence of site measurements.

The conceptual model simplifies wetland hydrology affected by drainage, reducing the need for complex modeling at each wetland. Numerical modeling was done using COMSOL Multiphysics, integrating complex governing equations like groundwater flow.

Site-specific data collection and model calibration were carried out at wetlands in different regions. Satisfactory model calibrations were achieved, indicating the suitability of the drainage model for predicting water level responses.

A hypothetical land development scenario near a wetland on the Kāpiti Coast was tested to demonstrate how the WDST could be applied. Various scenarios indicated lateral setback distances to ensure minimal change in wetland water levels.

Overall, the report concludes that a national tool to estimate drainage effects near wetlands is feasible. It recommends further refinement, including verification at additional wetlands and data collection for input parameters. The tool could potentially be developed into a web-based application, supported by technical guidance material, to assist users in protecting wetland ecosystems through appropriate drainage setback distances.

text: Minimum drain setback distances to protect New Zealand wetlands: tool development This report documents the development of a Wetland Drain Setback Tool (WDST) for New Zealand freshwater wetlands. The purpose of this tool is to assess the potential effects of historical and new drains on wetland ecosystems and provide guidance on appropriate setback distances to protect these ecosystems from adverse effects due to lowered water levels.

The WDST directly supports the implementation of the National Environmental Standards for Freshwater (NES-F), which were established in 2020 to protect and restore wetlands. These standards prohibit earthworks or modifications to the water cycle within or near wetlands unless exempted for specific reasons like wetland restoration. However, there is a lack of national guidance on acceptable water level declines for different wetland types.

The specific goals of this project were to develop and evaluate the viability of the WDST for New Zealand conditions and recommend subsequent steps for its development. The project involved five key steps:

1. Development of a conceptual model to evaluate how drain systems affect wetland hydrology.
2. Representation of the drain-wetland model in numerical software.
3. Collection of site-specific data to refine and validate the numerical modeling approach.
4. Application of conceptual and numerical models to a hypothetical drain development scenario.
5. Development of two national-scale datasets on hydraulic conductivity and Land Surface Recharge to provide input data in the absence of site measurements.

The conceptual model simplifies wetland hydrology affected by drainage, reducing the need for complex modeling at each wetland. Numerical modeling was done using COMSOL Multiphysics, integrating complex governing equations like groundwater flow.

Site-specific data collection and model calibration were carried out at wetlands in different regions. Satisfactory model calibrations were achieved, indicating the suitability of the drainage model for predicting water level responses.

A hypothetical land development scenario near a wetland on the Kāpiti Coast was tested to demonstrate how the WDST could be applied. Various scenarios indicated lateral setback distances to ensure minimal change in wetland water levels.

Overall, the report concludes that a national tool to estimate drainage effects near wetlands is feasible. It recommends further refinement, including verification at additional wetlands and data collection for input parameters. The tool could potentially be developed into a web-based application, supported by technical guidance material, to assist users in protecting wetland ecosystems through appropriate drainage setback distances.

year: 2023-07-01

title: Review: Memoirs of Active Service

authors: Cheesman, Sue

subjects: Maaka Pepene

abstract: Ka maumahara tonu tatou ki a ratou - we will remember them…poignant last words…   bidding farewell to a generation of veterans moving on...leaving fragments  of memories and diaries for children/grandchildren to honour, celebrate and remember …black costumes billow, fold, swirl and wrap the dancers bodies…wide sweeping arm movements…jumps and turns…slides on all fours - provides the vehicle for five accomplished dancers to fill the space with fluidity and lyricism in this very moving finale, a lament set to Albinoni’s adagio - maybe old soldiers never die.

text: Review: Memoirs of Active Service Ka maumahara tonu tatou ki a ratou - we will remember them…poignant last words…   bidding farewell to a generation of veterans moving on...leaving fragments  of memories and diaries for children/grandchildren to honour, celebrate and remember …black costumes billow, fold, swirl and wrap the dancers bodies…wide sweeping arm movements…jumps and turns…slides on all fours - provides the vehicle for five accomplished dancers to fill the space with fluidity and lyricism in this very moving finale, a lament set to Albinoni’s adagio - maybe old soldiers never die.

year: 2007