title: The Future of Marketing – An Investigation into Disruption and Innovation

authors: McDowall, James Samuel

subjects: marketing

abstract: The future of marketing, looking out as far as 2050, is envisioned in this thesis. According to a world-renowned futurist, one theory is the end of marketing as we know it. Another describes the discipline as entirely controlled by artificial intelligence, without the need for direct human interaction, while others foresee a healthy balance between humans and machines. The future of employment will therefore have a significant impact on marketing practice, as automation and machine learning may sharply reduce the need for ‘human marketers’. Despite existing research into the future, the future of marketing is largely overlooked by researchers. Exponential technological advancements are on the horizon, giving rise to the concept of the Singularity. The future is complex, perhaps chaotic, and futures studies are increasingly used in academia, business, and government as a means of coping with uncertainty.

Marketing is the practice of identifying the needs of consumers, creating and communicating value, engaging with the right audience, and ultimately, increasing sales and profitability. While these goals are likely to endure, the means at which these are achieved are constantly evolving. This is of interest to those in business, especially due to the marketing potential of current innovations, for example Big Data, machine learning, augmented reality, blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and more. This thesis asks, to what extent will these concepts impact the future of marketing? Further, how will the discipline evolve over the next thirty years, and what are the implications for marketing professionals today?

This discovery-oriented thesis utilises qualitative research methods, including personal interviews and comparative analysis, in a grounded theory approach. These proved applicable as new in-depth information was gained beyond what is known to the researcher, and the discussions were broad – but bounded – using moderately scheduled interviews. Twelve business leaders and senior practitioners from different industries were interviewed, and three future scenarios were developed. The results were then compared with recent papers and articles produced by research organisations, think tanks, and well-known online publications.

Three future scenarios are presented in this thesis: Possible, Probable, and Preferable. The Possible scenario embraces exponential innovation and the concept of the Singularity, i.e. a state at which artificial intelligence drives innovation. Our lives will be comprehensively tracked, and sophisticated prediction engines will map out our experiences to come. Employment in this scenario is a particularly contentious issue – while new job types will naturally arise in the coming years, they are unlikely to balance job losses. Shifting to a post-work society may be a factor, driven by the need to develop solutions that avoid an economic catastrophe. In the Probable scenario, current issues were given more weight, in the sense that inefficiencies and bureaucracy hinder the trajectory of innovation, thus delaying progress. In the Preferable scenario, the need for long-term planning was emphasised, especially with regards to larger societal and environmental issues. In this case, automation has less of an impact; it is carefully managed and supplements human work.

The future of marketing can be described as intensely personal. Marketing systems will have access to consumers’ demographic information, behaviour, affinities, and physical location at any given time. Machine learning will optimise targeting and delivery, and smart devices link our physical selves to our digital entities, providing marketers with invaluable data. This study will argue that marketing is therefore one of the most valuable applications of artificial intelligence, and that the pace of change largely depends on the factors discussed in each of the scenarios and in the discussion chapters.

text: The Future of Marketing – An Investigation into Disruption and Innovation The future of marketing, looking out as far as 2050, is envisioned in this thesis. According to a world-renowned futurist, one theory is the end of marketing as we know it. Another describes the discipline as entirely controlled by artificial intelligence, without the need for direct human interaction, while others foresee a healthy balance between humans and machines. The future of employment will therefore have a significant impact on marketing practice, as automation and machine learning may sharply reduce the need for ‘human marketers’. Despite existing research into the future, the future of marketing is largely overlooked by researchers. Exponential technological advancements are on the horizon, giving rise to the concept of the Singularity. The future is complex, perhaps chaotic, and futures studies are increasingly used in academia, business, and government as a means of coping with uncertainty.

Marketing is the practice of identifying the needs of consumers, creating and communicating value, engaging with the right audience, and ultimately, increasing sales and profitability. While these goals are likely to endure, the means at which these are achieved are constantly evolving. This is of interest to those in business, especially due to the marketing potential of current innovations, for example Big Data, machine learning, augmented reality, blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and more. This thesis asks, to what extent will these concepts impact the future of marketing? Further, how will the discipline evolve over the next thirty years, and what are the implications for marketing professionals today?

This discovery-oriented thesis utilises qualitative research methods, including personal interviews and comparative analysis, in a grounded theory approach. These proved applicable as new in-depth information was gained beyond what is known to the researcher, and the discussions were broad – but bounded – using moderately scheduled interviews. Twelve business leaders and senior practitioners from different industries were interviewed, and three future scenarios were developed. The results were then compared with recent papers and articles produced by research organisations, think tanks, and well-known online publications.

Three future scenarios are presented in this thesis: Possible, Probable, and Preferable. The Possible scenario embraces exponential innovation and the concept of the Singularity, i.e. a state at which artificial intelligence drives innovation. Our lives will be comprehensively tracked, and sophisticated prediction engines will map out our experiences to come. Employment in this scenario is a particularly contentious issue – while new job types will naturally arise in the coming years, they are unlikely to balance job losses. Shifting to a post-work society may be a factor, driven by the need to develop solutions that avoid an economic catastrophe. In the Probable scenario, current issues were given more weight, in the sense that inefficiencies and bureaucracy hinder the trajectory of innovation, thus delaying progress. In the Preferable scenario, the need for long-term planning was emphasised, especially with regards to larger societal and environmental issues. In this case, automation has less of an impact; it is carefully managed and supplements human work.

The future of marketing can be described as intensely personal. Marketing systems will have access to consumers’ demographic information, behaviour, affinities, and physical location at any given time. Machine learning will optimise targeting and delivery, and smart devices link our physical selves to our digital entities, providing marketers with invaluable data. This study will argue that marketing is therefore one of the most valuable applications of artificial intelligence, and that the pace of change largely depends on the factors discussed in each of the scenarios and in the discussion chapters.

year: 2018

title: Video observations of beach cusp morphodynamics

authors: Almar, Rafael

subjects: beach cusps

abstract: Beach cusps are a common feature of steep reflective and intermediate beaches. Although many observations of beach cusp spacing exist, there are few observations quantifying the incipient formation, evolution and eventual destruction of these features. Beach cusp morphodynamics were analyzed using a 3-year dataset of video images collected at Tairua Beach (New Zealand). Twenty-four beach cusp episodes were selected to monitor the cycle of beach face changes, from planar to the appearance of the cusp patterns and back to planar again. Observations show that beach cusp disappearance can be ascribed not only to the erosive influence of storms but also to the persistence of accretionary conditions leading to the infilling of beach cusp bays and the development of an alongshore continuous berm. We also report observations of changes in beach cusp spacing over time which can be attributed to the merging of adjacent cusps within the cusp field, with the overall cusp spacing re-adjusting to accommodate the disappearance of a horn. Although the self-organization theory provides a better fit to the data and theory, we were unable to conclusively refute any of the mechanisms causing beach cusp formation since both existing theories, subharmonic standing edge wave and self-organization, can predict the trend in the observed beach cusp spacing. These observations show that initial beach cusp formation primarily occurs (around 70% of the episodes analyzed) under mildly accretionary conditions and, when accretion persists, the pattern disappearance is likely to occur as a result of bay infilling to form a featureless berm.

text: Video observations of beach cusp morphodynamics Beach cusps are a common feature of steep reflective and intermediate beaches. Although many observations of beach cusp spacing exist, there are few observations quantifying the incipient formation, evolution and eventual destruction of these features. Beach cusp morphodynamics were analyzed using a 3-year dataset of video images collected at Tairua Beach (New Zealand). Twenty-four beach cusp episodes were selected to monitor the cycle of beach face changes, from planar to the appearance of the cusp patterns and back to planar again. Observations show that beach cusp disappearance can be ascribed not only to the erosive influence of storms but also to the persistence of accretionary conditions leading to the infilling of beach cusp bays and the development of an alongshore continuous berm. We also report observations of changes in beach cusp spacing over time which can be attributed to the merging of adjacent cusps within the cusp field, with the overall cusp spacing re-adjusting to accommodate the disappearance of a horn. Although the self-organization theory provides a better fit to the data and theory, we were unable to conclusively refute any of the mechanisms causing beach cusp formation since both existing theories, subharmonic standing edge wave and self-organization, can predict the trend in the observed beach cusp spacing. These observations show that initial beach cusp formation primarily occurs (around 70% of the episodes analyzed) under mildly accretionary conditions and, when accretion persists, the pattern disappearance is likely to occur as a result of bay infilling to form a featureless berm.

year: 2008

title: The Waikato invasion 1863-1864: A counter-insurgency approach

authors: Swears, Calum Robert

subjects: Counterinsurgency

abstract: Counter-insurgency as a strategy has only been explicitly espoused in American and British military tactical manuals in recent decades. It is anachronistic to military terminology before the last half century, but as this thesis illustrates counter-insurgency can be seen in embryonic form in the conflicts of the 1860s between Indigenous Māori and invading British forces in Aotearoa New Zealand. This thesis examines how early counter-insurgency strategy was evident in the tactical and strategic approaches used by Crown forces during the invasion of the Waikato in 1863-64. It asks: what evidence of counter-insurgency strategy can be seen in both British and Māori tactics at the time, and were they planned and intentional? 
Using two recent counter-insurgency tactical manuals - one American and the other British - this study compares present-day counter-insurgency principles, philosophies, and approaches to examples of Māori and British strategies during the 1860’s wars in Waikato, New Zealand. It illustrates how the Crown’s “suppression of rebellion” served as the contemporary political wording for its counter-insurgency campaign, which effectively repositioned Indigenous peoples as insurgents and “rebels” in their own territories and legitimated British colonial authority. Thus, this study argues that counter-insurgency in British military history arose from the various colonial invasions and occupations it undertook over several centuries. In Aotearoa, as this thesis argues, counter-insurgency tactics were used to establish legitimacy through civil-military operations such as land seizure, public proclamations and reports that vilified Māori and asserted British governing authority. The history of counter-insurgency as it is understood in British and American military thinking today, then, as this study contends is deeply connected to, and informed by, powerful colonial discourses, strategies, and experiences similar to those explored in this study of the Waikato invasion.

text: The Waikato invasion 1863-1864: A counter-insurgency approach Counter-insurgency as a strategy has only been explicitly espoused in American and British military tactical manuals in recent decades. It is anachronistic to military terminology before the last half century, but as this thesis illustrates counter-insurgency can be seen in embryonic form in the conflicts of the 1860s between Indigenous Māori and invading British forces in Aotearoa New Zealand. This thesis examines how early counter-insurgency strategy was evident in the tactical and strategic approaches used by Crown forces during the invasion of the Waikato in 1863-64. It asks: what evidence of counter-insurgency strategy can be seen in both British and Māori tactics at the time, and were they planned and intentional? 
Using two recent counter-insurgency tactical manuals - one American and the other British - this study compares present-day counter-insurgency principles, philosophies, and approaches to examples of Māori and British strategies during the 1860’s wars in Waikato, New Zealand. It illustrates how the Crown’s “suppression of rebellion” served as the contemporary political wording for its counter-insurgency campaign, which effectively repositioned Indigenous peoples as insurgents and “rebels” in their own territories and legitimated British colonial authority. Thus, this study argues that counter-insurgency in British military history arose from the various colonial invasions and occupations it undertook over several centuries. In Aotearoa, as this thesis argues, counter-insurgency tactics were used to establish legitimacy through civil-military operations such as land seizure, public proclamations and reports that vilified Māori and asserted British governing authority. The history of counter-insurgency as it is understood in British and American military thinking today, then, as this study contends is deeply connected to, and informed by, powerful colonial discourses, strategies, and experiences similar to those explored in this study of the Waikato invasion.

year: 2022