title: Life expectancy reductions from New Zealand's unbalanced Covid response

authors: Gibson, John

subjects: Covid-19

abstract: Safety-at-all-costs approaches may perversely increase mortality if indirect effects from lower incomes outweigh direct effects of the safety intervention. New Zealand’s output in 2020 was five percent less than expected, mainly due to responses to Covid-19. This output loss implies a life expectancy reduction of 0.9%; equivalent to two million fewer expected life years. Cross-country data show higher output losses, the more restrictive the early response to Covid-19 (New Zealand’s response was the most restrictive in the world at the time), controlling for economic structure. Yet more restrictive lockdowns did not reduce mortality in 2020. Perversely, New Zealand's response to Covid-19 may have reduced life expectancy.

text: Life expectancy reductions from New Zealand's unbalanced Covid response Safety-at-all-costs approaches may perversely increase mortality if indirect effects from lower incomes outweigh direct effects of the safety intervention. New Zealand’s output in 2020 was five percent less than expected, mainly due to responses to Covid-19. This output loss implies a life expectancy reduction of 0.9%; equivalent to two million fewer expected life years. Cross-country data show higher output losses, the more restrictive the early response to Covid-19 (New Zealand’s response was the most restrictive in the world at the time), controlling for economic structure. Yet more restrictive lockdowns did not reduce mortality in 2020. Perversely, New Zealand's response to Covid-19 may have reduced life expectancy.

year: 2021

title: The Non-Market Value of Biodiversity Enhancement in New Zealand's Planted Forests

authors: Yao, Richard

subjects: non-market value

abstract: This study investigates the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement in New Zealand’s planted forests using the stated choice experiments (CE) approach. This study focuses on two issues. One issue is policy orientated where we estimate the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement and the determinants of this value. The other issue is about the neutrality of major experimental design criteria used in CE. Specifically, we examine the impact of using different criteria on attribute non-attendance, choice variability, choice determinism and learning. 

To estimate the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement, a random parameters logit model with error components is used to analyse choice data collected from 209 respondents across New Zealand. The panel nature of the choice data set is exploited to calculate the marginal willingness-to-pay (WTP) for environmental attributes of each respondent. Panel random-effects regression models are subsequently employed to determine the factors that influence individual-specific WTP values. Results suggest that New Zealand taxpayers would be willing to pay $26.5 million per year for five years for a proposed biodiversity enhancement programme. Random effects regression analysis suggest that respondents living close to large planted forests (i.e., less than 10 kilometres away) would pay more for the programme. 

To study whether the selection of experimental design criterion affects attribute non-attendance and choice variability, we analyse a balanced sample with split designs. The balanced sample is composed of 1509 choice observations equally distributed across three experimental designs, namely: orthogonal, Bayesian D-efficient and optimal orthogonal. Results from latent class logit analysis suggest that tasks derived from the Bayesian D-efficient design (BDD) criterion are more attended than those derived from orthogonal and optimal orthogonal designs. Heteroskedastic logit analysis indicates that, unlike the two other designs, higher choice task complexity (as measured by entropy proxies) in the BDD does not increase choice variability of respondents. This is indicated by the absence of a significant increase in the variance of the Gumbel error in the choice data collected using BDD unlike the data collected using the two other criteria.

To study whether the three experimental designs vary in terms of choice determinism and task order effects, a separate analysis of the balanced data set using heteroskedastic logit models is undertaken. Results show that higher levels of choice task complexity (as measured by attribute dispersion proxies) in BDD contribute to increasing choice determinism of respondents but not in the orthogonal design. Choice data collected using BDD choice tasks exhibit a steady learning effect, unlike the other designs which do not exhibit any form of continuous learning. 

We conclude that the BDD criterion provides choice tasks that are superior compared to the other two design criteria. Choice data collected using this criterion has a higher quality as indicated by more attended choice tasks, lower choice variability and a pattern of continuous learning. These results point to a higher behavioural efficiency of respondents in evaluating complex choice tasks. However, these results might be specific to the choice data collected in this current study. We suggest that future studies should further investigate the impacts of different experimental designs to verify the findings of this study.

text: The Non-Market Value of Biodiversity Enhancement in New Zealand's Planted Forests This study investigates the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement in New Zealand’s planted forests using the stated choice experiments (CE) approach. This study focuses on two issues. One issue is policy orientated where we estimate the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement and the determinants of this value. The other issue is about the neutrality of major experimental design criteria used in CE. Specifically, we examine the impact of using different criteria on attribute non-attendance, choice variability, choice determinism and learning. 

To estimate the non-market value of biodiversity enhancement, a random parameters logit model with error components is used to analyse choice data collected from 209 respondents across New Zealand. The panel nature of the choice data set is exploited to calculate the marginal willingness-to-pay (WTP) for environmental attributes of each respondent. Panel random-effects regression models are subsequently employed to determine the factors that influence individual-specific WTP values. Results suggest that New Zealand taxpayers would be willing to pay $26.5 million per year for five years for a proposed biodiversity enhancement programme. Random effects regression analysis suggest that respondents living close to large planted forests (i.e., less than 10 kilometres away) would pay more for the programme. 

To study whether the selection of experimental design criterion affects attribute non-attendance and choice variability, we analyse a balanced sample with split designs. The balanced sample is composed of 1509 choice observations equally distributed across three experimental designs, namely: orthogonal, Bayesian D-efficient and optimal orthogonal. Results from latent class logit analysis suggest that tasks derived from the Bayesian D-efficient design (BDD) criterion are more attended than those derived from orthogonal and optimal orthogonal designs. Heteroskedastic logit analysis indicates that, unlike the two other designs, higher choice task complexity (as measured by entropy proxies) in the BDD does not increase choice variability of respondents. This is indicated by the absence of a significant increase in the variance of the Gumbel error in the choice data collected using BDD unlike the data collected using the two other criteria.

To study whether the three experimental designs vary in terms of choice determinism and task order effects, a separate analysis of the balanced data set using heteroskedastic logit models is undertaken. Results show that higher levels of choice task complexity (as measured by attribute dispersion proxies) in BDD contribute to increasing choice determinism of respondents but not in the orthogonal design. Choice data collected using BDD choice tasks exhibit a steady learning effect, unlike the other designs which do not exhibit any form of continuous learning. 

We conclude that the BDD criterion provides choice tasks that are superior compared to the other two design criteria. Choice data collected using this criterion has a higher quality as indicated by more attended choice tasks, lower choice variability and a pattern of continuous learning. These results point to a higher behavioural efficiency of respondents in evaluating complex choice tasks. However, these results might be specific to the choice data collected in this current study. We suggest that future studies should further investigate the impacts of different experimental designs to verify the findings of this study.

year: 2012

title: Ngā Tuituinga o te Pōtae: Rangatahi perspectives of leadership within Ngāti Maniapoto

authors: Moss, Luke

subjects: Rangatahi

abstract: Research on youth leadership development is often saturated by adult perceptions and thus the literature often lacks youth voice and youth perspective on what integral areas are needed for successful youth leadership development. This research focuses on the rangatahi of Ngāti Maniapoto and their perspectives of leadership within the iwi to aid the gap in academic literature relating to youth perception of leadership development.

Maniapoto has an abundance of leadership examples from the plethora of tūpuna that have developed the iwi to the leaders of contemporary Maniapoto pushing the iwi forward. The purpose of this research is to delve into the perspectives of rangatahi Maniapoto that pertain to good leadership qualities, their perception of leadership, unique leadership styles within Maniapoto, rangatahi leadership skills and perspectives of youth development within the iwi. By interviewing rangatahi with strong connection to Maniapoto this information of their perspectives revealed four integral areas of rangatahi leadership development were collated into a model for dissemination and use within the iwi for youth development practices. This model is named Ngā Tuituinga o te Pōtae and has four areas, education, collective, communication and vision. Education was identified by rangatahi as they found that learning Maniapoto reo and tikanga was integral for a Maniapoto leader, in addition they saw an opportunity to establish a wānanga to future proof our Maniapototanga. A collective approach to leadership was highlighted as the rangatahi perceive that Maniapoto leaders need to be well known in the community and have good relationships with iwi members to be successful. Rangatahi reported that communication was an important attribute for leaders to have, not just speech but communicating by doing was essential for a Maniapoto leader. Finally, rangatahi explained that leaders need to have a vision for the taiao and a vision for our people to be a successful leader, and be able to take the iwi to a place they have not been to before.

This study adds to the scarce literature on youth perceptions on youth leadership development and definitively answers the question on how rangatahi of Maniapoto perceive leadership and how rangatahi of Maniapoto would develop leadership within Te Nehenehenui. The key findings presented in this thesis indicate that rangatahi from Maniapoto engage and identify leadership in many ways, however they do agree that leadership development is necessary for Maniapoto to flourish in the future. Applying this model and research within the iwi will create new foundations for leadership to grow within Maniapoto, and fill the gap of leadership for the iwi that rangatahi have identified.

text: Ngā Tuituinga o te Pōtae: Rangatahi perspectives of leadership within Ngāti Maniapoto Research on youth leadership development is often saturated by adult perceptions and thus the literature often lacks youth voice and youth perspective on what integral areas are needed for successful youth leadership development. This research focuses on the rangatahi of Ngāti Maniapoto and their perspectives of leadership within the iwi to aid the gap in academic literature relating to youth perception of leadership development.

Maniapoto has an abundance of leadership examples from the plethora of tūpuna that have developed the iwi to the leaders of contemporary Maniapoto pushing the iwi forward. The purpose of this research is to delve into the perspectives of rangatahi Maniapoto that pertain to good leadership qualities, their perception of leadership, unique leadership styles within Maniapoto, rangatahi leadership skills and perspectives of youth development within the iwi. By interviewing rangatahi with strong connection to Maniapoto this information of their perspectives revealed four integral areas of rangatahi leadership development were collated into a model for dissemination and use within the iwi for youth development practices. This model is named Ngā Tuituinga o te Pōtae and has four areas, education, collective, communication and vision. Education was identified by rangatahi as they found that learning Maniapoto reo and tikanga was integral for a Maniapoto leader, in addition they saw an opportunity to establish a wānanga to future proof our Maniapototanga. A collective approach to leadership was highlighted as the rangatahi perceive that Maniapoto leaders need to be well known in the community and have good relationships with iwi members to be successful. Rangatahi reported that communication was an important attribute for leaders to have, not just speech but communicating by doing was essential for a Maniapoto leader. Finally, rangatahi explained that leaders need to have a vision for the taiao and a vision for our people to be a successful leader, and be able to take the iwi to a place they have not been to before.

This study adds to the scarce literature on youth perceptions on youth leadership development and definitively answers the question on how rangatahi of Maniapoto perceive leadership and how rangatahi of Maniapoto would develop leadership within Te Nehenehenui. The key findings presented in this thesis indicate that rangatahi from Maniapoto engage and identify leadership in many ways, however they do agree that leadership development is necessary for Maniapoto to flourish in the future. Applying this model and research within the iwi will create new foundations for leadership to grow within Maniapoto, and fill the gap of leadership for the iwi that rangatahi have identified.

year: 2021