title: Quantifying the impact of emerging trade issues and non-tariff measures on Bangladesh

authors: Rahman, Mohammad Masudur

subjects: Non-tariff measures, Computable general equilibrium, Least developed country

abstract: The overall aim of this thesis is to quantify the impact of emerging trade issues, including non-tariff measures (NTMs), for Bangladesh. This thesis focuses on how trade costs, mostly NTM-related trade costs, impact international trade. NTMs are policy-related trade costs that arise in addition to tariffs, and they are of particular interest as they can constitute a large share of trade costs, particularly for developing countries.
My research involves both econometric and computable general equilibrium modelling analysis. I developed a unique NTM dataset for Bangladesh, at the HS 6-digit product level, which is used to econometrically estimate the impact of NTMs on imports. Global computable general equilibrium modelling is then used for quantifying the impact of changes in trade costs. 
This thesis comprises four applications of trade cost analysis. The first (chapter two) estimates the bilateral trade costs between Bangladesh and its leading trading partners, before investigating the factors that influence Bangladesh’s import costs. To measure implied bilateral trade costs, I first deploy an inverse gravity equation. I then estimate the determinants of import trade costs at the HS 6-digit product level, applying PPML estimation techniques to a gravity model, using a unique new NTM database developed for this thesis. The results show that imports to Bangladesh are related in an expected way to common trade cost proxies and that NTMs negatively impact imports.
In the second application, I use the MyGTAP model, an extension of the well-known GTAP model which allows household disaggregation, to analyse the impact of eliminating export subsidies using a computable general framework. Export subsidies can be significant NTMs and important trade policy instruments for many developing countries. The simulations indicate that elimination of export subsidies has a positive effect on GDP. If we reduce the export subsidy by 50 percent and transfer this amount of money from the government to the targeted seven low-income household groups, real GDP may increase by about one percent. Government transfers to households lead to an increase in real income to all households, especially rural households, where incomes on average rise by 2.5 percent. This study suggests there are substantial opportunity costs to export subsidies, and household income could be enhanced by redirecting the spending to more productive channels.
In the third application, I again employ the MyGTAP model to estimate the potential market access costs of Bangladesh’s least developed country (LDC) graduation. Bangladesh is an important case study of an emerging trading nation that will graduate from the LDC status to a developing country by 2026. The findings show that if developed countries impose a standard generalized system of preferences (GSP) tariffs while importing from Bangladesh and at the same time Bangladesh eliminates its export subsidies, Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may drop by about 0.38 percent and exports could fall by about six percent. The ready-made garment sector could be affected severely, and exports may decline by about 14 percent. The analysis indicates that the income of urban households could decrease by three percent, and household consumption may shrink by about four percent.
In my fourth application, I explore how Bangladesh is dealing with balancing its relationship with its two important neighbours, India and China. China now holds the position of Bangladesh’s top trading and investment partner, while India is its second-biggest trading partner. Bangladesh has substantial comparative advantages in the apparel, jute, and leather sectors, and at the same time, both countries offer generous tariff elimination for imports from Bangladesh. However, various NTMs and a lack of trade facilitation present mounting barriers to exporting to the giants’ markets. Computable general equilibrium modeling simulations indicate that if India and China reduce NTMs through increased trade facilitation by 50 percent, Bangladesh’s exports may increase by three percent to these two markets. 
My thesis contributes to the improved understanding of emerging trade issues for Bangladesh. Using my new NTM dataset, I demonstrate the high costs of NTMs for Bangladesh. I then estimate the opportunity cost of export subsidies and the potential impacts of Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, including on different households. Finally, I highlight the importance of improved trade facilitation between Bangladesh and the huge neighbouring economies of China and India.

text: Quantifying the impact of emerging trade issues and non-tariff measures on Bangladesh The overall aim of this thesis is to quantify the impact of emerging trade issues, including non-tariff measures (NTMs), for Bangladesh. This thesis focuses on how trade costs, mostly NTM-related trade costs, impact international trade. NTMs are policy-related trade costs that arise in addition to tariffs, and they are of particular interest as they can constitute a large share of trade costs, particularly for developing countries.
My research involves both econometric and computable general equilibrium modelling analysis. I developed a unique NTM dataset for Bangladesh, at the HS 6-digit product level, which is used to econometrically estimate the impact of NTMs on imports. Global computable general equilibrium modelling is then used for quantifying the impact of changes in trade costs. 
This thesis comprises four applications of trade cost analysis. The first (chapter two) estimates the bilateral trade costs between Bangladesh and its leading trading partners, before investigating the factors that influence Bangladesh’s import costs. To measure implied bilateral trade costs, I first deploy an inverse gravity equation. I then estimate the determinants of import trade costs at the HS 6-digit product level, applying PPML estimation techniques to a gravity model, using a unique new NTM database developed for this thesis. The results show that imports to Bangladesh are related in an expected way to common trade cost proxies and that NTMs negatively impact imports.
In the second application, I use the MyGTAP model, an extension of the well-known GTAP model which allows household disaggregation, to analyse the impact of eliminating export subsidies using a computable general framework. Export subsidies can be significant NTMs and important trade policy instruments for many developing countries. The simulations indicate that elimination of export subsidies has a positive effect on GDP. If we reduce the export subsidy by 50 percent and transfer this amount of money from the government to the targeted seven low-income household groups, real GDP may increase by about one percent. Government transfers to households lead to an increase in real income to all households, especially rural households, where incomes on average rise by 2.5 percent. This study suggests there are substantial opportunity costs to export subsidies, and household income could be enhanced by redirecting the spending to more productive channels.
In the third application, I again employ the MyGTAP model to estimate the potential market access costs of Bangladesh’s least developed country (LDC) graduation. Bangladesh is an important case study of an emerging trading nation that will graduate from the LDC status to a developing country by 2026. The findings show that if developed countries impose a standard generalized system of preferences (GSP) tariffs while importing from Bangladesh and at the same time Bangladesh eliminates its export subsidies, Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may drop by about 0.38 percent and exports could fall by about six percent. The ready-made garment sector could be affected severely, and exports may decline by about 14 percent. The analysis indicates that the income of urban households could decrease by three percent, and household consumption may shrink by about four percent.
In my fourth application, I explore how Bangladesh is dealing with balancing its relationship with its two important neighbours, India and China. China now holds the position of Bangladesh’s top trading and investment partner, while India is its second-biggest trading partner. Bangladesh has substantial comparative advantages in the apparel, jute, and leather sectors, and at the same time, both countries offer generous tariff elimination for imports from Bangladesh. However, various NTMs and a lack of trade facilitation present mounting barriers to exporting to the giants’ markets. Computable general equilibrium modeling simulations indicate that if India and China reduce NTMs through increased trade facilitation by 50 percent, Bangladesh’s exports may increase by three percent to these two markets. 
My thesis contributes to the improved understanding of emerging trade issues for Bangladesh. Using my new NTM dataset, I demonstrate the high costs of NTMs for Bangladesh. I then estimate the opportunity cost of export subsidies and the potential impacts of Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, including on different households. Finally, I highlight the importance of improved trade facilitation between Bangladesh and the huge neighbouring economies of China and India.

year: 2023

title: Heterogeneity and Female-Headed Households in Sri Lanka: Vulnerability and Resilience in a Transitional Development Society

authors: Adikaram Boyagoda, Adikaram Mudiyanselage Kumudika Suramya

subjects: Female headed households

abstract: Since the 1970s, female-headed households (FHHs) in developing countries have often been used in development literature as a proxy for poverty and vulnerability. In reality the profile of women-headed households is diverse; they include, at the least, rich and poor women, aged widows as well as young single mothers and wives of migrant workers, educated professionals and semi-literate manual labourers. This diversity of characteristics, with its attendant diversity of experience and vulnerability unfolds a picture of heterogeneity, rather than homogeneity.  Yet, despite ample evidence that FHHs are, in fact, heterogeneous and not homogeneous, contemporary research and practice remains caught dominantly within the ‘poverty-vulnerability’ nexus. The heterogeneity of female headship is undermined by conventional notions of homogeneity. It is this gap that the present research addresses. Drawing on interdisciplinary perspectives especially from demography, gender studies; particularly gender and development, risk and vulnerability studies, as well as scholarship on social capital, this thesis employs a ‘heterogeneity’ lens to specifically examine the complexities of household formation, economic conditions and social relations of FHHs in Sri Lanka, in an attempt to explore their vulnerabilities and resilience.

The choice of Sri Lanka as the context for this study is grounded in the demographic reality of a relatively high, and consistently increasing, proportion of households headed by women since the 1970s. By 2009/10, FHHs accounted for nearly one-quarter of all households, throughout the country. In order to capture the geographical and social diversity of FHHs, empirical research was conducted in three contrasting types of district in Sri Lanka, encompassing urban, rural, and estate sectors.   Two main data collection strategies were employed in a mixed methods approach: a sample survey of a cross-section of 534 FHHs, and in-depth interviews with 32 female heads purposively selected from among the survey participants. The findings and discussions include quantitative statistical and qualitative thematic analyses based on primary data, combined with secondary data from censuses, national survey reports and micro-studies of FHHs in Sri Lanka. 

The key findings show the diversity in profile of FHHs in the sample: they range from single person to large extended households. While some households consist of only the woman head and her young children, others comprise aged parents and a woman head. Households were also constituted of ‘working-age’ household members, including the female heads who were totally reliant on others for income and other resources. The study also revealed novel findings that challenge the emphasis of most conventional perceptions of poverty and female headship. From an economic perspective, the results show women from rich households can be personally poor, lacking, among others, in skills to manage household economies, while women in low-income brackets may be resilient, enterprising and satisfied with their needs, despite their apparent poverty. Finally, the thesis highlights the significant role of social capital, a relatively under-researched area in relation to FHHs. The findings reveal that many female heads in Sri Lanka are rich in social capital, a resource in its own right for these women. However, social capital itself needs to be disaggregated into ‘support networks’ and ‘leverage networks’ to understand the role it plays in providing long-term security and resilience. The results show that the majority of FHHs in the sample had access to support networks that provide day-to-day subsistence, but which did not offer them prospects to leverage out of their current situation.

text: Heterogeneity and Female-Headed Households in Sri Lanka: Vulnerability and Resilience in a Transitional Development Society Since the 1970s, female-headed households (FHHs) in developing countries have often been used in development literature as a proxy for poverty and vulnerability. In reality the profile of women-headed households is diverse; they include, at the least, rich and poor women, aged widows as well as young single mothers and wives of migrant workers, educated professionals and semi-literate manual labourers. This diversity of characteristics, with its attendant diversity of experience and vulnerability unfolds a picture of heterogeneity, rather than homogeneity.  Yet, despite ample evidence that FHHs are, in fact, heterogeneous and not homogeneous, contemporary research and practice remains caught dominantly within the ‘poverty-vulnerability’ nexus. The heterogeneity of female headship is undermined by conventional notions of homogeneity. It is this gap that the present research addresses. Drawing on interdisciplinary perspectives especially from demography, gender studies; particularly gender and development, risk and vulnerability studies, as well as scholarship on social capital, this thesis employs a ‘heterogeneity’ lens to specifically examine the complexities of household formation, economic conditions and social relations of FHHs in Sri Lanka, in an attempt to explore their vulnerabilities and resilience.

The choice of Sri Lanka as the context for this study is grounded in the demographic reality of a relatively high, and consistently increasing, proportion of households headed by women since the 1970s. By 2009/10, FHHs accounted for nearly one-quarter of all households, throughout the country. In order to capture the geographical and social diversity of FHHs, empirical research was conducted in three contrasting types of district in Sri Lanka, encompassing urban, rural, and estate sectors.   Two main data collection strategies were employed in a mixed methods approach: a sample survey of a cross-section of 534 FHHs, and in-depth interviews with 32 female heads purposively selected from among the survey participants. The findings and discussions include quantitative statistical and qualitative thematic analyses based on primary data, combined with secondary data from censuses, national survey reports and micro-studies of FHHs in Sri Lanka. 

The key findings show the diversity in profile of FHHs in the sample: they range from single person to large extended households. While some households consist of only the woman head and her young children, others comprise aged parents and a woman head. Households were also constituted of ‘working-age’ household members, including the female heads who were totally reliant on others for income and other resources. The study also revealed novel findings that challenge the emphasis of most conventional perceptions of poverty and female headship. From an economic perspective, the results show women from rich households can be personally poor, lacking, among others, in skills to manage household economies, while women in low-income brackets may be resilient, enterprising and satisfied with their needs, despite their apparent poverty. Finally, the thesis highlights the significant role of social capital, a relatively under-researched area in relation to FHHs. The findings reveal that many female heads in Sri Lanka are rich in social capital, a resource in its own right for these women. However, social capital itself needs to be disaggregated into ‘support networks’ and ‘leverage networks’ to understand the role it plays in providing long-term security and resilience. The results show that the majority of FHHs in the sample had access to support networks that provide day-to-day subsistence, but which did not offer them prospects to leverage out of their current situation.

year: 2014

title: Identifying fisheries regions in New Zealand: Some conceptual difficulties

authors: Rennie, Hamish Gordon

subjects: Fisheries

abstract: The importance of fisheries to nations is reflected in the production and employment statistics of the country. It is also reflected in socio-cultural symbols (for instance songs, tales), and in socio-political hegemonies.  Just as these may vary from one nation to another, they may also vary from region to region within a nation.  Several nations speak openly in terms of 'fisheries regions' and there have been a number of attempts to identify such regions in the social science literature. An understanding of these regions is seen as step towards defining appropriate policies for the sustainable management of their resources.

In 1986, New Zealand established an innovative fishery management system based on individually transferable quota (ITQ), and subsequently removed the (never-implemented) region-based, fishery management planning structure from the statutes.  These changes might be indicative of a loss of geography, a flattening of the nation's "fishing topography", and might be expected to result in significant changes to the nature and location of fisheries regions.

This paper outlines the changes in the management structure of New Zealand's fisheries. We then attempt a preliminary analysis of fisheries regions in New Zealand as the basis for a "new regional" geography of New Zealand's fisheries. In the process we discuss various criteria for defining fishery regions and present our initial categorisation of New Zealand into those regions. The relationship between these regions and related institutional structures is then discussed. This raises a number of additional questions regarding the concept of a fisheries region, especially in the context of a resurgent indigenous (Maaori) culture, the emergence of new fishing peoples in New Zealand, and the respective size of recreational and commercial fishing sectors.

text: Identifying fisheries regions in New Zealand: Some conceptual difficulties The importance of fisheries to nations is reflected in the production and employment statistics of the country. It is also reflected in socio-cultural symbols (for instance songs, tales), and in socio-political hegemonies.  Just as these may vary from one nation to another, they may also vary from region to region within a nation.  Several nations speak openly in terms of 'fisheries regions' and there have been a number of attempts to identify such regions in the social science literature. An understanding of these regions is seen as step towards defining appropriate policies for the sustainable management of their resources.

In 1986, New Zealand established an innovative fishery management system based on individually transferable quota (ITQ), and subsequently removed the (never-implemented) region-based, fishery management planning structure from the statutes.  These changes might be indicative of a loss of geography, a flattening of the nation's "fishing topography", and might be expected to result in significant changes to the nature and location of fisheries regions.

This paper outlines the changes in the management structure of New Zealand's fisheries. We then attempt a preliminary analysis of fisheries regions in New Zealand as the basis for a "new regional" geography of New Zealand's fisheries. In the process we discuss various criteria for defining fishery regions and present our initial categorisation of New Zealand into those regions. The relationship between these regions and related institutional structures is then discussed. This raises a number of additional questions regarding the concept of a fisheries region, especially in the context of a resurgent indigenous (Maaori) culture, the emergence of new fishing peoples in New Zealand, and the respective size of recreational and commercial fishing sectors.

year: 1998-06-01