title: The public sector pay premium and compensating differentials in the New Zealand labour market

authors: Gibson, John

subjects: compensating differentials

abstract: In this note, propensity score matching (PSM) methods are applied to data from the 2005 International Social Survey Program Work Orientations (ISSP-WO) survey to examine the public sector pay premium in New Zealand. Taking account of a wide range of worker characteristics and attitudes, job attributes, and the effects that jobs have on workers and their family life, there appears to be a pay premium from working in the public sector of 17 to 21 percent.

text: The public sector pay premium and compensating differentials in the New Zealand labour market In this note, propensity score matching (PSM) methods are applied to data from the 2005 International Social Survey Program Work Orientations (ISSP-WO) survey to examine the public sector pay premium in New Zealand. Taking account of a wide range of worker characteristics and attitudes, job attributes, and the effects that jobs have on workers and their family life, there appears to be a pay premium from working in the public sector of 17 to 21 percent.

year: 2007-10

title: A modelling approach to assist with managing water quality in a catchment subject to rapid urbanisation: Lake Rotokauri, Hamilton, New Zealand

authors: Sharma, Abhilasha

subjects: Lake Rotokauri

abstract: The objective of this study was to apply a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to a peat-stained and shallow (~4 m maximum depth) eutrophic lake whose catchment is likely to be subject to urban expansion associated with the development of Hamilton city, Waikato, New Zealand. The in-lake modelling was designed to increase understanding of the lake ecosystem and potentially to influence planning and management decisions associated with the prospective urban development project being undertaken by the Hamilton City Council (HCC). The overarching goal of the development is to accommodate urban expansion whilst retaining and enhancing the existing natural resources of Lake Rotokauri and Waiwhakareke Lake, and to restore the ecological value of the Rotokauri catchment. The main objective of this study was to understand the relationship between lake water quality and the effects of change of land-use from pastoral to urban within the Rotokauri catchment. This study incorporated results from a twelve-month programme of field work undertaken independently to the present study, into empirical calculations and computer modelling related to the catchment water budget and nutrient load, as well as the lake water quality. The fieldwork included the collection of water samples at set depths from Lake Rotokauri for the analysis of total and dissolved nutrients, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentrations, and water temperature. On each sampling occasion a Secchi depth was measured. The surface flow measurements and nutrient loadings via the inflows were obtained as part of a water budget calculation for the lake as well as from previous studies that used both field measurements and models to derive nutrient concentrations and loads.

An empirical water budget for Lake Rotokauri was developed to estimate the groundwater and outflow discharge as there were no gaugings that could be applied to input these variables into the lake model. Meteorological data for Lake Rotokauri was obtained from the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Limited database, based on measurement at the Ruakura meteorological station. Meteorological data, inflows (including empirically estimated groundwater and measured surface water discharges to the lake) and the calculated outflow were entered as daily inputs to the DYRESM-CAEDYM lake model for the period of 2009. The available data relating to 2009 were looped for 2010 to check the stability of the model and its ability to capture repeated inter-annual dynamics that would be expected with identical annual forcing data input. DYRESM is a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model that predicts the vertical distribution of temperature, density and salinity. CAEDYM is an aquatic ecological model which was coupled with DYRESM as its hydrodynamic driver to simulate transport and mixing, and output temperature and biogeochemical parameters associated with lake water quality. The model satisfactorily simulated both the surface (0 m) and bottom (3 m) water temperature and the seasonal trends including the occasional stratification periods observed through spring to autumn. The model simulations showed greater departures from field data in simulating the dynamics of biogeochemical variables, particularly the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton. The conceptual seasonal succession in phytoplankton communities depicts dominance of cyanobacteria in summer and diatoms in winter. In the observed data for Lake Rotokauri diatoms were found to be the dominant group throughout the year. The calibrated model was able to show diatoms to be the dominant group over cyanobacterial blooms. The agreement between concentrations of nitrate and dissolved reactive phosphorus in the water column was better than for chlorophyll a, and the observed magnitude and seasonal fluctuations at both depths (0 and 3 m) were captured reasonably well by the model simulations. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were under and over-estimated, respectively. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (PO4) was overestimated perhaps as a result of insufficient uptake of phosphorus by the two phytoplankton groups. As the present model does not contain a dynamic description of sediment dynamics, the sediment phosphorus release rates were influenced by user-defined maximum phosphorus release rate, temperature and the oxygen concentration in the overlying waters. Concentrations of ammonium were underestimated but it represented a relatively small proportion of TN. Due to wind-induced mixing and sediment resuspension, as well as convective sediment-water heat exchanges, phosphorus may be released from the bottom sediments where it has previously sedimented out. The model simulations may not have captured these internal loads of phosphorus adequately as sediment resuspension, for example, was not explicitly included in the model configuration.
To depict the future water quality of Lake Rotokauri when subjected to urbanisation, three scenarios were developed which involved simulations with altered nutrient loads to DYRESM-CAEDYM and comparisons with the calibrated model which represented a ‘base’ or present case of water quality. The scenarios considered the water quality that could evolve during and after urban development, and with a range of mitigation measures, from relatively modest treatment to best management practices to reduce nutrient loads and attenuate water flows to the lake.
The predicted nutrient load contributed from future urban run-off was less than the nutrient load from the pastoral run-off in all scenarios. The model indicated that the nutrient loading from a future catchment with little or modest treatment of the urban area (Scenario I) would be only slightly poorer water quality than Scenario II which examined the water quality during the construction phase. Scenario III (treated water) was most effective in reducing nutrient loads to Lake Rotokauri. At 3 m depth dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations showed large fluctuations throughout the year for the both the base and untreated discharge scenarios. Chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations for the untreated scenario were greater than in the base scenario. The timing of peak chl a concentrations between base and untreated discharges differed by a few days. The TP, TN and nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations of the base scenario were greater than the untreated scenario.
Scenario II represented the intermediate stage towards Scenario 3 which was the optimal treatment case for the catchment. The greatest difference in DO at 0 m between the base case and scenario II was in March (i.e., base-intermediate = 2.76 mg L-1). At 3 m depth, Lake Rotokauri was predicted to be anoxic on 4 July 2011 (0.18 mg L-1) for scenario II. Chlorophyll a concentrations for scenario 2 were lower than the base case and PO4-P concentrations were higher. Concentrations of NO3-N and NH4-N at 3 m depth for scenario II were lower than the base case.
Scenario III involved simulating water quality from with best management practices implemented. These practices included detention basins (grass-lined), constructed wetlands, biofiltration swales and floodways. At 3 m depth, fluctuations in DO concentration for both the base and scenario III were similar at the beginning of the simulated period, but for the months of May to November DO was lower in Scenario III than the base case. The maximum chl a for scenario 3 peaked at 30.8 μgL-1 compared to 38.9 μg L-1 observed in the base model. The TP and TN concentrations were substantially lower in Scenario III than the base model. Concentrations of PO4-P at 3 m depth were low for most of the year except in March. At 0 m depth the NH4-N concentrations were greater than the base model from mid-June to July. Concentrations of NO3-N for the treated scenario at 0 m depth were approximately 25% less than the base model. 
Future studies should consider an ongoing comprehensive and consistent monitoring plan that would emphasise any change in the water quality of Lake Rotokauri during and/or after high-density urban developments within the catchment. Future works should involve regular monitoring that would not only limit the uncertainties in the data but also account for any effects that may be attributable to the management plan. Restoration plans should also be considered to explore the effects of biomanipulation and re-establishment of submerged vegetation. The DYRESM-CAEDYM model may also be used to examine the effects of climate change on in-lake processes and external loads to the lake.

text: A modelling approach to assist with managing water quality in a catchment subject to rapid urbanisation: Lake Rotokauri, Hamilton, New Zealand The objective of this study was to apply a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to a peat-stained and shallow (~4 m maximum depth) eutrophic lake whose catchment is likely to be subject to urban expansion associated with the development of Hamilton city, Waikato, New Zealand. The in-lake modelling was designed to increase understanding of the lake ecosystem and potentially to influence planning and management decisions associated with the prospective urban development project being undertaken by the Hamilton City Council (HCC). The overarching goal of the development is to accommodate urban expansion whilst retaining and enhancing the existing natural resources of Lake Rotokauri and Waiwhakareke Lake, and to restore the ecological value of the Rotokauri catchment. The main objective of this study was to understand the relationship between lake water quality and the effects of change of land-use from pastoral to urban within the Rotokauri catchment. This study incorporated results from a twelve-month programme of field work undertaken independently to the present study, into empirical calculations and computer modelling related to the catchment water budget and nutrient load, as well as the lake water quality. The fieldwork included the collection of water samples at set depths from Lake Rotokauri for the analysis of total and dissolved nutrients, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentrations, and water temperature. On each sampling occasion a Secchi depth was measured. The surface flow measurements and nutrient loadings via the inflows were obtained as part of a water budget calculation for the lake as well as from previous studies that used both field measurements and models to derive nutrient concentrations and loads.

An empirical water budget for Lake Rotokauri was developed to estimate the groundwater and outflow discharge as there were no gaugings that could be applied to input these variables into the lake model. Meteorological data for Lake Rotokauri was obtained from the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Limited database, based on measurement at the Ruakura meteorological station. Meteorological data, inflows (including empirically estimated groundwater and measured surface water discharges to the lake) and the calculated outflow were entered as daily inputs to the DYRESM-CAEDYM lake model for the period of 2009. The available data relating to 2009 were looped for 2010 to check the stability of the model and its ability to capture repeated inter-annual dynamics that would be expected with identical annual forcing data input. DYRESM is a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model that predicts the vertical distribution of temperature, density and salinity. CAEDYM is an aquatic ecological model which was coupled with DYRESM as its hydrodynamic driver to simulate transport and mixing, and output temperature and biogeochemical parameters associated with lake water quality. The model satisfactorily simulated both the surface (0 m) and bottom (3 m) water temperature and the seasonal trends including the occasional stratification periods observed through spring to autumn. The model simulations showed greater departures from field data in simulating the dynamics of biogeochemical variables, particularly the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton. The conceptual seasonal succession in phytoplankton communities depicts dominance of cyanobacteria in summer and diatoms in winter. In the observed data for Lake Rotokauri diatoms were found to be the dominant group throughout the year. The calibrated model was able to show diatoms to be the dominant group over cyanobacterial blooms. The agreement between concentrations of nitrate and dissolved reactive phosphorus in the water column was better than for chlorophyll a, and the observed magnitude and seasonal fluctuations at both depths (0 and 3 m) were captured reasonably well by the model simulations. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were under and over-estimated, respectively. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (PO4) was overestimated perhaps as a result of insufficient uptake of phosphorus by the two phytoplankton groups. As the present model does not contain a dynamic description of sediment dynamics, the sediment phosphorus release rates were influenced by user-defined maximum phosphorus release rate, temperature and the oxygen concentration in the overlying waters. Concentrations of ammonium were underestimated but it represented a relatively small proportion of TN. Due to wind-induced mixing and sediment resuspension, as well as convective sediment-water heat exchanges, phosphorus may be released from the bottom sediments where it has previously sedimented out. The model simulations may not have captured these internal loads of phosphorus adequately as sediment resuspension, for example, was not explicitly included in the model configuration.
To depict the future water quality of Lake Rotokauri when subjected to urbanisation, three scenarios were developed which involved simulations with altered nutrient loads to DYRESM-CAEDYM and comparisons with the calibrated model which represented a ‘base’ or present case of water quality. The scenarios considered the water quality that could evolve during and after urban development, and with a range of mitigation measures, from relatively modest treatment to best management practices to reduce nutrient loads and attenuate water flows to the lake.
The predicted nutrient load contributed from future urban run-off was less than the nutrient load from the pastoral run-off in all scenarios. The model indicated that the nutrient loading from a future catchment with little or modest treatment of the urban area (Scenario I) would be only slightly poorer water quality than Scenario II which examined the water quality during the construction phase. Scenario III (treated water) was most effective in reducing nutrient loads to Lake Rotokauri. At 3 m depth dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations showed large fluctuations throughout the year for the both the base and untreated discharge scenarios. Chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations for the untreated scenario were greater than in the base scenario. The timing of peak chl a concentrations between base and untreated discharges differed by a few days. The TP, TN and nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations of the base scenario were greater than the untreated scenario.
Scenario II represented the intermediate stage towards Scenario 3 which was the optimal treatment case for the catchment. The greatest difference in DO at 0 m between the base case and scenario II was in March (i.e., base-intermediate = 2.76 mg L-1). At 3 m depth, Lake Rotokauri was predicted to be anoxic on 4 July 2011 (0.18 mg L-1) for scenario II. Chlorophyll a concentrations for scenario 2 were lower than the base case and PO4-P concentrations were higher. Concentrations of NO3-N and NH4-N at 3 m depth for scenario II were lower than the base case.
Scenario III involved simulating water quality from with best management practices implemented. These practices included detention basins (grass-lined), constructed wetlands, biofiltration swales and floodways. At 3 m depth, fluctuations in DO concentration for both the base and scenario III were similar at the beginning of the simulated period, but for the months of May to November DO was lower in Scenario III than the base case. The maximum chl a for scenario 3 peaked at 30.8 μgL-1 compared to 38.9 μg L-1 observed in the base model. The TP and TN concentrations were substantially lower in Scenario III than the base model. Concentrations of PO4-P at 3 m depth were low for most of the year except in March. At 0 m depth the NH4-N concentrations were greater than the base model from mid-June to July. Concentrations of NO3-N for the treated scenario at 0 m depth were approximately 25% less than the base model. 
Future studies should consider an ongoing comprehensive and consistent monitoring plan that would emphasise any change in the water quality of Lake Rotokauri during and/or after high-density urban developments within the catchment. Future works should involve regular monitoring that would not only limit the uncertainties in the data but also account for any effects that may be attributable to the management plan. Restoration plans should also be considered to explore the effects of biomanipulation and re-establishment of submerged vegetation. The DYRESM-CAEDYM model may also be used to examine the effects of climate change on in-lake processes and external loads to the lake.

year: 2011

title: Epidemiological evidence that can help to improve timely diagnosis of colorectal cancer in New Zealand.

authors: Hirsz, Malgorzata

subjects: Colorectal cancer

abstract: Incidence rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) in New Zealand (NZ) are among the highest in the world. The long-term survival rates in NZ are poor, which has partially been attributed to late diagnosis. Considering that CRC is a curable disease if diagnosed early, conducting research targeted at the improvement of early diagnosis is therefore important. This thesis provides statistical models for the calculation of CRC incidence rates in the entire NZ population and population strata defined by age, gender, ethnicity and diabetes status, and a model for CRC risk in individual patients referred to the secondary care. The models presented here could assist health professionals in the selection of patients for further investigation to facilitate earlier diagnosis. The empirical part consists of three independent observational studies, briefly described below.

Sub-study 1. The objectives were, first, to describe trends in CRC incidence in the NZ population and, second, to investigate whether there are any strata defined by gender and ethnicity with especially increased incidence rates of CRC. To address these objectives, I analysed data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry (years 1994–2018) using an age- period-cohort (APC) model. The overall CRC incidence rates in NZ decreased between 1994 and 2018 by an average of 1.31% per year. However, the decrease was observed only in patients 50 years and older. In those 30-<50 years old, the incidence rates increased between 1994 and 2018 regardless of gender and ethnicity. The increase was similar for proximal, distal and rectal cancers. The APC analyses revealed very strong cohort effects that could explain nearly the entire trends in CRC incidence, pointing out generations born in the 1970s and 80s being affected by the increased incidence rates, rather than individuals 30-<50 years old. The cohort effects were different in Ma ̄ori and non-Ma ̄ori populations. In non-Ma ̄ori born between approximately 1939 and 1955, incidence rates decreased sharply. By contrast, those Ma ̄ori generations have not benefitted from the sharp decrease in rates. However, CRC incidence increased substantially in both M ̄aori and non-M ̄aori groups born in the 1970s and 80s.

Sub-study 2. The objective was to estimate the IRR for CRC in patients with diabetes compared to those without diabetes, with relation to diabetes duration and use of insulin for diabetes control. Registration in the Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) in the years 2014–2018 was used as a marker of a diabetes diagnosis. Tables with counts of the entire NZ population stratified by age, gender, and ethnicity were obtained from Statistics NZ. In total, data from 310,710 patients with diabetes, corresponding to 1,277,284 person- years and 2512 incident CRC cases were analysed using a Poisson regression model. Diabetes was associated with an overall increased CRC incidence of 13% compared to non-diabetes [IRR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.18)]. The IRR was especially high in the first three months after diabetes diagnosis [IRR=2.55 (95% CI 2.02, 3.21)], likely due to detection bias. The association was equally strong in males and females. However, in the analysis by ethnicity, the incidence of CRC was increased only in non-Ma ̄ori patients and restricted only to those younger than 75 years.

Sub-study 3. The objective was to develop a predictive model for CRC risk in individual patients referred to secondary care. To develop such a model, I extracted information from free text included in e-referrals from GPs’ to the Gastroenterology and General Surgery departments in the Waikato Hospital from 2015-2018, including: symptoms; test results; and family history of CRC. The reference test was a full colonoscopy with visualisation of the cecum. Data from 3015 patients, 20-<90 years old were analysed using a logistic regression model. The final model included the following predictors associated with increased CRC risk: anaemia, rectal bleeding, palpable mass in abdomen or rectum, weight loss, age and gender, and a decreased CRC risk: family history of CRC, abdominal pain, and inflammatory bowel disease. The model discriminates patients with low CRC risk well. According to the final cross-validated model, around 20% of patients from our cohort had performed colonoscopy despite a very low CRC risk (less than 1.5%).

In conclusion, the APC analysis revealed an alarming pattern. According to the fitted APC model, the combination of increasing age and cohort effect in generations born in the 1970s and 80s will bring a wave of CRC diagnoses in the near future when the young generations with high CRC incidence rates will replace the old generations with low CRC incidence. The results from this study could therefore help policy-makers to plan the needs for gastroenterology services.
Secondly, CRC incidence rates in diabetes have been found to be slightly increased com- pared to non-diabetes but only in non-Ma ̄ori individuals younger than 75 years.
Third, the results suggest that males underutilise health services. As shown in sub- study 3, males underwent fewer colonoscopies than females, despite having a higher risk of CRC. The higher detection bias in males than in females (sub-study 2) could also suggest underuse of health services by males, but the difference was not statistically significant.
Finally, based on the fitted models for CRC incidence in sub-studies 1 and 2, population- wide CRC screening for Ma ̄ori and patients with diabetes, based on the incidence, instead of age alone, would be proposed to start at age 57.5 years if the screening in the general population starts at age 60 years.

text: Epidemiological evidence that can help to improve timely diagnosis of colorectal cancer in New Zealand. Incidence rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) in New Zealand (NZ) are among the highest in the world. The long-term survival rates in NZ are poor, which has partially been attributed to late diagnosis. Considering that CRC is a curable disease if diagnosed early, conducting research targeted at the improvement of early diagnosis is therefore important. This thesis provides statistical models for the calculation of CRC incidence rates in the entire NZ population and population strata defined by age, gender, ethnicity and diabetes status, and a model for CRC risk in individual patients referred to the secondary care. The models presented here could assist health professionals in the selection of patients for further investigation to facilitate earlier diagnosis. The empirical part consists of three independent observational studies, briefly described below.

Sub-study 1. The objectives were, first, to describe trends in CRC incidence in the NZ population and, second, to investigate whether there are any strata defined by gender and ethnicity with especially increased incidence rates of CRC. To address these objectives, I analysed data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry (years 1994–2018) using an age- period-cohort (APC) model. The overall CRC incidence rates in NZ decreased between 1994 and 2018 by an average of 1.31% per year. However, the decrease was observed only in patients 50 years and older. In those 30-<50 years old, the incidence rates increased between 1994 and 2018 regardless of gender and ethnicity. The increase was similar for proximal, distal and rectal cancers. The APC analyses revealed very strong cohort effects that could explain nearly the entire trends in CRC incidence, pointing out generations born in the 1970s and 80s being affected by the increased incidence rates, rather than individuals 30-<50 years old. The cohort effects were different in Ma ̄ori and non-Ma ̄ori populations. In non-Ma ̄ori born between approximately 1939 and 1955, incidence rates decreased sharply. By contrast, those Ma ̄ori generations have not benefitted from the sharp decrease in rates. However, CRC incidence increased substantially in both M ̄aori and non-M ̄aori groups born in the 1970s and 80s.

Sub-study 2. The objective was to estimate the IRR for CRC in patients with diabetes compared to those without diabetes, with relation to diabetes duration and use of insulin for diabetes control. Registration in the Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) in the years 2014–2018 was used as a marker of a diabetes diagnosis. Tables with counts of the entire NZ population stratified by age, gender, and ethnicity were obtained from Statistics NZ. In total, data from 310,710 patients with diabetes, corresponding to 1,277,284 person- years and 2512 incident CRC cases were analysed using a Poisson regression model. Diabetes was associated with an overall increased CRC incidence of 13% compared to non-diabetes [IRR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.18)]. The IRR was especially high in the first three months after diabetes diagnosis [IRR=2.55 (95% CI 2.02, 3.21)], likely due to detection bias. The association was equally strong in males and females. However, in the analysis by ethnicity, the incidence of CRC was increased only in non-Ma ̄ori patients and restricted only to those younger than 75 years.

Sub-study 3. The objective was to develop a predictive model for CRC risk in individual patients referred to secondary care. To develop such a model, I extracted information from free text included in e-referrals from GPs’ to the Gastroenterology and General Surgery departments in the Waikato Hospital from 2015-2018, including: symptoms; test results; and family history of CRC. The reference test was a full colonoscopy with visualisation of the cecum. Data from 3015 patients, 20-<90 years old were analysed using a logistic regression model. The final model included the following predictors associated with increased CRC risk: anaemia, rectal bleeding, palpable mass in abdomen or rectum, weight loss, age and gender, and a decreased CRC risk: family history of CRC, abdominal pain, and inflammatory bowel disease. The model discriminates patients with low CRC risk well. According to the final cross-validated model, around 20% of patients from our cohort had performed colonoscopy despite a very low CRC risk (less than 1.5%).

In conclusion, the APC analysis revealed an alarming pattern. According to the fitted APC model, the combination of increasing age and cohort effect in generations born in the 1970s and 80s will bring a wave of CRC diagnoses in the near future when the young generations with high CRC incidence rates will replace the old generations with low CRC incidence. The results from this study could therefore help policy-makers to plan the needs for gastroenterology services.
Secondly, CRC incidence rates in diabetes have been found to be slightly increased com- pared to non-diabetes but only in non-Ma ̄ori individuals younger than 75 years.
Third, the results suggest that males underutilise health services. As shown in sub- study 3, males underwent fewer colonoscopies than females, despite having a higher risk of CRC. The higher detection bias in males than in females (sub-study 2) could also suggest underuse of health services by males, but the difference was not statistically significant.
Finally, based on the fitted models for CRC incidence in sub-studies 1 and 2, population- wide CRC screening for Ma ̄ori and patients with diabetes, based on the incidence, instead of age alone, would be proposed to start at age 57.5 years if the screening in the general population starts at age 60 years.

year: 2021