title: Eliciting informative priors by modeling expert decision making

authors: Falconer, Julia Ruth

abstract: There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.

text: Eliciting informative priors by modeling expert decision making There are significant limitations to current methods for eliciting the prior beliefs of experts. To combat some of these limitations, this paper proposes an alternative approach that infers an expert’s prior beliefs about an uncertain event, A, from the expert’s past decisions. We show that an analyst can use past information on an expert’s decision-making task, contingent on an expert’s prior of A, to model the decision-making process and infer an approximation of the prior for A. This concept is illustrated by an application to recidivism. We conclude this work by highlighting important directions for future research. Funding: J. R. Falconer’s research is funded through the University of Waikato Doctoral Scholarship.

year: 2023

title: Cross-cultural validation of the stroke riskometer using generalizability theory (vol 11, 19064, 2021)

authors: Medvedev, Oleg N.

subjects: Science & Technology

abstract: The Stroke Riskometer mobile application is a novel, validated way to provide personalized stroke risk assessment for individuals and motivate them to reduce their risks. Although this app is being used worldwide, its reliability across different countries has not yet been rigorously investigated using appropriate methodology. The Generalizability Theory (G-Theory) is an advanced statistical method suitable for examining reliability and generalizability of assessment scores across different samples, cultural and other contexts and for evaluating sources of measurement errors. G-Theory was applied to the Stroke Riskometer data sampled from 1300 participants in 13 countries using two-facet nested observational design (person by item nested in the country). The Stroke Riskometer demonstrated strong reliability in measuring stroke risks across the countries with coefficients G relative and absolute of 0.84, 95%CI [0.79; 0.89] and 0.82, 95%CI [0.76; 0.88] respectively. D-study analyses revealed that the Stroke Riskometer has optimal reliability in its current form in measuring stroke risk for each country and no modifications are required. These results suggest that the Stroke Riskometer’s scores are generalizable across sample population and countries permitting cross-cultural comparisons. Further studies investigating reliability of the Stroke Riskometer over time in longitudinal study design are warranted.

text: Cross-cultural validation of the stroke riskometer using generalizability theory (vol 11, 19064, 2021) The Stroke Riskometer mobile application is a novel, validated way to provide personalized stroke risk assessment for individuals and motivate them to reduce their risks. Although this app is being used worldwide, its reliability across different countries has not yet been rigorously investigated using appropriate methodology. The Generalizability Theory (G-Theory) is an advanced statistical method suitable for examining reliability and generalizability of assessment scores across different samples, cultural and other contexts and for evaluating sources of measurement errors. G-Theory was applied to the Stroke Riskometer data sampled from 1300 participants in 13 countries using two-facet nested observational design (person by item nested in the country). The Stroke Riskometer demonstrated strong reliability in measuring stroke risks across the countries with coefficients G relative and absolute of 0.84, 95%CI [0.79; 0.89] and 0.82, 95%CI [0.76; 0.88] respectively. D-study analyses revealed that the Stroke Riskometer has optimal reliability in its current form in measuring stroke risk for each country and no modifications are required. These results suggest that the Stroke Riskometer’s scores are generalizable across sample population and countries permitting cross-cultural comparisons. Further studies investigating reliability of the Stroke Riskometer over time in longitudinal study design are warranted.

year: 2021-10-11

title: Te kū o te kupu

authors: Raerino, Heddell Robert

subjects: Māori language

abstract: Ko tēnei tuhingaroa, he rangahau hai wherawhera ake i te āhuatanga o te reo Māori, e kiia ana ko tōna oro, me te kū o ngā kupu kōrero o taua reo. Ko te aronga whakaaro o tēnei rangahau, he rapu i tētahi āhuatanga kāore anō kia tirotirohia, kia tuhia rānei mō te reo Māori. Ehara tēnei rangahau i te kaupapa, i te mahi hou. Otirā, kai te whai te kaituhi i ngā rangahau kua oti kē i wētahi tohunga te wānanga mō wētahi atu reo. Ko tā te kaituhi he whai i ngā tauira a te hunga wetewete reo nei, ka uwhi ai ki runga i te reo Māori hai āwhina i ngā tātaritanga ā te kaituhi mō tōna ake reo, arā, te reo Māori.

Kai te upoko tuatahi ka whaia ngā rerenga whakaaro i pūpū ake ai te taitara 'te kū o te kupu' mō tēnei mahi rangahau. Inā ka tirohia i ahu ngā oro o te reo mai i whea e ai ki tā te Māori wānanga. Mai i ngā oro ka puta ko ngā ku o ngā kupu me ngā kupu o ngā rārangi kōrero.

Hai te upoko tuarua ka tirohia ngā kōrero kua tuhia e ngā tohunga wetewete reo e pā ana ki te kaupapa o tēnei tuhingaroa, arā, te kū o te kupu. Ko ngā tirohanga mō te reo ake, arā, i ahu mai i whea, he aha ōna momo whakaata me tōna pakaritanga ka tirohia i roto i te upoko tuatoru.

Mai i ngā momo whakaata o te reo i roto i ngā momo waiata, ka āta tahuri te kaituhi ki te whakawhānui haere i tana wetewete me tāna tūhononga i ngā rerenga me ngā pekanga o te ku o te kupu.

Kai te upoko tuarima ka tirohia ngā whāinga me ngā aronga ā wētahi kaitito
waiata Māori me wētahi kaikōrero i te reo Māori, mō ō rātau māramatanga ki ngā kū me ngā oro o te reo Māori.

Kai te upoko tuaono e whāriki ana wētahi tauira kōrero Māori, hai whakaata i ngā momo orōmāhara, oro ohorere, ororite, kupu whakahuarua me wērā atu tauira whakaahua i ngā kū o te kupu me ngā oro o te reo Māori.

Ko ngā hua o tēnei rangahau, o tēnei tuhingaroa ka kitea i roto i te upoko
tuawhitu. Kōinei te whakakopinga o tēnei mahi.

text: Te kū o te kupu Ko tēnei tuhingaroa, he rangahau hai wherawhera ake i te āhuatanga o te reo Māori, e kiia ana ko tōna oro, me te kū o ngā kupu kōrero o taua reo. Ko te aronga whakaaro o tēnei rangahau, he rapu i tētahi āhuatanga kāore anō kia tirotirohia, kia tuhia rānei mō te reo Māori. Ehara tēnei rangahau i te kaupapa, i te mahi hou. Otirā, kai te whai te kaituhi i ngā rangahau kua oti kē i wētahi tohunga te wānanga mō wētahi atu reo. Ko tā te kaituhi he whai i ngā tauira a te hunga wetewete reo nei, ka uwhi ai ki runga i te reo Māori hai āwhina i ngā tātaritanga ā te kaituhi mō tōna ake reo, arā, te reo Māori.

Kai te upoko tuatahi ka whaia ngā rerenga whakaaro i pūpū ake ai te taitara 'te kū o te kupu' mō tēnei mahi rangahau. Inā ka tirohia i ahu ngā oro o te reo mai i whea e ai ki tā te Māori wānanga. Mai i ngā oro ka puta ko ngā ku o ngā kupu me ngā kupu o ngā rārangi kōrero.

Hai te upoko tuarua ka tirohia ngā kōrero kua tuhia e ngā tohunga wetewete reo e pā ana ki te kaupapa o tēnei tuhingaroa, arā, te kū o te kupu. Ko ngā tirohanga mō te reo ake, arā, i ahu mai i whea, he aha ōna momo whakaata me tōna pakaritanga ka tirohia i roto i te upoko tuatoru.

Mai i ngā momo whakaata o te reo i roto i ngā momo waiata, ka āta tahuri te kaituhi ki te whakawhānui haere i tana wetewete me tāna tūhononga i ngā rerenga me ngā pekanga o te ku o te kupu.

Kai te upoko tuarima ka tirohia ngā whāinga me ngā aronga ā wētahi kaitito
waiata Māori me wētahi kaikōrero i te reo Māori, mō ō rātau māramatanga ki ngā kū me ngā oro o te reo Māori.

Kai te upoko tuaono e whāriki ana wētahi tauira kōrero Māori, hai whakaata i ngā momo orōmāhara, oro ohorere, ororite, kupu whakahuarua me wērā atu tauira whakaahua i ngā kū o te kupu me ngā oro o te reo Māori.

Ko ngā hua o tēnei rangahau, o tēnei tuhingaroa ka kitea i roto i te upoko
tuawhitu. Kōinei te whakakopinga o tēnei mahi.

year: 2000