title: Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand

authors: Purdie, Jennifer Margaret

subjects: New Zealand

abstract: The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis.
Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts.
Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models.
Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment.
Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand.

text: Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis.
Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts.
Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models.
Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment.
Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand.

year: 2010

title: Numerical simulations of wave setup over barred beach profiles: Implications for predictability

authors: Sephens, Scott A.

subjects: wave transformation

abstract: Numerical simulations of cross‐shore wave transformation and associated wave setup were performed for 100,000 realistic combinations of wave height, period and beach profile. Results of numerical simulations were compared to a widely‐used empirical predictor of wave setup and the outcome was a large variability in setup relative to that calculated by the empirical predictor. The variability, comparable in magnitude to the scatter around the empirical predictor developed with field observations, arose from unaccounted‐for wave energy dissipation over the cross‐shore profile. The beachface slope commonly used in empirical predictors can be a poor descriptor of wave transformation across the beach profile where most of the wave energy dissipation and setup generation occurs. Shoreline setup appears to be far more dependent on accurate characterisation of the offshore profile (e.g. bar location and depth) than the beach face slope.

text: Numerical simulations of wave setup over barred beach profiles: Implications for predictability Numerical simulations of cross‐shore wave transformation and associated wave setup were performed for 100,000 realistic combinations of wave height, period and beach profile. Results of numerical simulations were compared to a widely‐used empirical predictor of wave setup and the outcome was a large variability in setup relative to that calculated by the empirical predictor. The variability, comparable in magnitude to the scatter around the empirical predictor developed with field observations, arose from unaccounted‐for wave energy dissipation over the cross‐shore profile. The beachface slope commonly used in empirical predictors can be a poor descriptor of wave transformation across the beach profile where most of the wave energy dissipation and setup generation occurs. Shoreline setup appears to be far more dependent on accurate characterisation of the offshore profile (e.g. bar location and depth) than the beach face slope.

year: 2010

title: Kotahi anō te tupuna o te tangata Māori, ko Ranginui e tū nei, ko Papatūānuku e takato nei. Colonisation through Christianity

authors: Wallace, Ritane

subjects: Christianity

abstract: This thesis will look at the role that Christianity and the missionaries played in the colonisation of Māori during the 1800s. With discussion about the colonisation of Aotearoa, it is generally felt within the Christian community that the work of the missionaries and the Crown are separate and therefore the universal belief is that the missionaries are pardoned from the critique of their work here in Aotearoa. However, Christianity throughout history has always been a doorway for the British Empire to enter land that was not their own.
  
It is widely accepted from the viewpoint of Christianity that it holds a religious superiority over all Indigenous people and their religions dating back to Pope Alexander VI and the issuing of the Papal Bull “Inter Caetera” in 1493 to justify Christian European explorers’ claims on land and waterways they allegedly discovered. Christian hegemony shaped missionary views of the ‘other’ and justified the assimilation of Indigenous people into European Christianity. The negative effects of Christianity on Māori far outweigh the positives as mission stations up and down Aotearoa contributed heavily to the loss of language, religion, and land, the three foundational pillars of Māori and other Indigenous peoples around the world.
   
The thesis seeks to hold the missionaries and Christianity to account for its contribution to the colonisation and religious assimilation of Māori into a foreign and unrelated belief system.

text: Kotahi anō te tupuna o te tangata Māori, ko Ranginui e tū nei, ko Papatūānuku e takato nei. Colonisation through Christianity This thesis will look at the role that Christianity and the missionaries played in the colonisation of Māori during the 1800s. With discussion about the colonisation of Aotearoa, it is generally felt within the Christian community that the work of the missionaries and the Crown are separate and therefore the universal belief is that the missionaries are pardoned from the critique of their work here in Aotearoa. However, Christianity throughout history has always been a doorway for the British Empire to enter land that was not their own.
  
It is widely accepted from the viewpoint of Christianity that it holds a religious superiority over all Indigenous people and their religions dating back to Pope Alexander VI and the issuing of the Papal Bull “Inter Caetera” in 1493 to justify Christian European explorers’ claims on land and waterways they allegedly discovered. Christian hegemony shaped missionary views of the ‘other’ and justified the assimilation of Indigenous people into European Christianity. The negative effects of Christianity on Māori far outweigh the positives as mission stations up and down Aotearoa contributed heavily to the loss of language, religion, and land, the three foundational pillars of Māori and other Indigenous peoples around the world.
   
The thesis seeks to hold the missionaries and Christianity to account for its contribution to the colonisation and religious assimilation of Māori into a foreign and unrelated belief system.

year: 2021