title: Naive Bayes for regression

authors: Frank, Eibe

subjects: Science & Technology

abstract: Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes learning scheme performs well on most classification tasks, and is often significantly more accurate than more sophisticated methods. Although the probability estimates that it produces can be inaccurate, it often assigns maximum probability to the correct class. This suggests that its good performance might be restricted to situations where the output is categorical. It is therefore interesting to see how it performs in domains where the predicted value is numeric, because in this case, predictions are more sensitive to inaccurate probability estimates.
This paper shows how to apply the naive Bayes methodology to numeric prediction (i.e., regression) tasks by modeling the probability distribution of the target value with kernel density estimators, and compares it to linear regression, locally weighted linear regression, and a method that produces “model trees”—decision trees with linear regression functions at the leaves. Although we exhibit an artificial dataset for which naive Bayes is the method of choice, on real-world datasets it is almost uniformly worse than locally weighted linear regression and model trees. The comparison with linear regression depends on the error measure: for one measure naive Bayes performs similarly, while for another it is worse. We also show that standard naive Bayes applied to regression problems by discretizing the target value performs similarly badly.We then present empirical evidence that isolates naive Bayes’ independence assumption as the culprit for its poor performance in the regression setting. These results indicate that the simplistic statistical assumption that naive Bayes makes is indeed more restrictive for regression than for classification.

text: Naive Bayes for regression Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes learning scheme performs well on most classification tasks, and is often significantly more accurate than more sophisticated methods. Although the probability estimates that it produces can be inaccurate, it often assigns maximum probability to the correct class. This suggests that its good performance might be restricted to situations where the output is categorical. It is therefore interesting to see how it performs in domains where the predicted value is numeric, because in this case, predictions are more sensitive to inaccurate probability estimates.
This paper shows how to apply the naive Bayes methodology to numeric prediction (i.e., regression) tasks by modeling the probability distribution of the target value with kernel density estimators, and compares it to linear regression, locally weighted linear regression, and a method that produces “model trees”—decision trees with linear regression functions at the leaves. Although we exhibit an artificial dataset for which naive Bayes is the method of choice, on real-world datasets it is almost uniformly worse than locally weighted linear regression and model trees. The comparison with linear regression depends on the error measure: for one measure naive Bayes performs similarly, while for another it is worse. We also show that standard naive Bayes applied to regression problems by discretizing the target value performs similarly badly.We then present empirical evidence that isolates naive Bayes’ independence assumption as the culprit for its poor performance in the regression setting. These results indicate that the simplistic statistical assumption that naive Bayes makes is indeed more restrictive for regression than for classification.

year: 2000-10-01

title: Shifting the learning culture of a secondary school in Aotearoa New Zealand: An analysis of enacting a shared vision

authors: Greenhill, Deborah

abstract: Educational leadership frameworks and organisational literature have extensively documented successful leadership approaches, practices, change processes, and reform models. However, the literature lacks a nuanced understanding of how individual leaders, particularly middle leaders, make sense of and respond to implementing school-wide change. This study centres on how curriculum (middle) leaders in a traditional secondary school in Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ), interpret and translate a school vision into practice to shift their school's learning culture.
This interpretive study uses one school as a case study and six participants, five of whom are middle (curriculum) leaders and one senior leader participant. The findings are drawn from their transcripts from semi-structured interviews and associated documents they submitted for analysis. Reflexive thematic analysis was used to generate authentic insights into their lived experiences.
Key findings revealed that vision enactment involves a complex interplay between contextual realities and professional agency. While inclusive vision development fostered collective ownership, curriculum leaders were crucial intermediaries, having to translate aspirational language into concrete, student-centred strategies. Their agency was enabled through structured frameworks but constrained by contextual factors, including external performativity pressures and internal entrenched traditions. The study identified specific enablers (collaborative structures, embedded professional development, external expertise) and inhibitors (inadequate change management support, limited cross-faculty collaboration) affecting vision enactment. These findings demonstrate that meaningful educational change requires not only distributing leadership but also providing robust support systems that recognise the pivotal role of curriculum leaders as bridges between vision and sustainable learning culture change.
The study contributes to the field by offering insights into how curriculum leaders interpret a school vision and exercise professional agency to translate aspirational statements into classroom practices while navigating the complex contextual factors that enable and constrain their efforts.

text: Shifting the learning culture of a secondary school in Aotearoa New Zealand: An analysis of enacting a shared vision Educational leadership frameworks and organisational literature have extensively documented successful leadership approaches, practices, change processes, and reform models. However, the literature lacks a nuanced understanding of how individual leaders, particularly middle leaders, make sense of and respond to implementing school-wide change. This study centres on how curriculum (middle) leaders in a traditional secondary school in Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ), interpret and translate a school vision into practice to shift their school's learning culture.
This interpretive study uses one school as a case study and six participants, five of whom are middle (curriculum) leaders and one senior leader participant. The findings are drawn from their transcripts from semi-structured interviews and associated documents they submitted for analysis. Reflexive thematic analysis was used to generate authentic insights into their lived experiences.
Key findings revealed that vision enactment involves a complex interplay between contextual realities and professional agency. While inclusive vision development fostered collective ownership, curriculum leaders were crucial intermediaries, having to translate aspirational language into concrete, student-centred strategies. Their agency was enabled through structured frameworks but constrained by contextual factors, including external performativity pressures and internal entrenched traditions. The study identified specific enablers (collaborative structures, embedded professional development, external expertise) and inhibitors (inadequate change management support, limited cross-faculty collaboration) affecting vision enactment. These findings demonstrate that meaningful educational change requires not only distributing leadership but also providing robust support systems that recognise the pivotal role of curriculum leaders as bridges between vision and sustainable learning culture change.
The study contributes to the field by offering insights into how curriculum leaders interpret a school vision and exercise professional agency to translate aspirational statements into classroom practices while navigating the complex contextual factors that enable and constrain their efforts.

year: 2025

title: Building capacity for sustainable Iwi development

authors: Bishop, Russell

subjects: Māori community development

abstract: Since 1998, four iwi groups have participated in a Māori Sustainable Development project with researchers from the University of Waikato. This project has sought to develop a better understanding of iwi aspirations for economic, social and cultural development. Based on this research, the project seeks to identify, in conjunction with iwi, capacity building models and options in order to provide sustainable economic, social and cultural development. One finding of the research, based on the responses from iwi who have participated in this project, identifies iwi values and identity as the basis for a capacity building model for Māori sustainable development. It is this that is the focus of this paper.

text: Building capacity for sustainable Iwi development Since 1998, four iwi groups have participated in a Māori Sustainable Development project with researchers from the University of Waikato. This project has sought to develop a better understanding of iwi aspirations for economic, social and cultural development. Based on this research, the project seeks to identify, in conjunction with iwi, capacity building models and options in order to provide sustainable economic, social and cultural development. One finding of the research, based on the responses from iwi who have participated in this project, identifies iwi values and identity as the basis for a capacity building model for Māori sustainable development. It is this that is the focus of this paper.

year: 2002-09