title: The demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. What population ageing [really] means

authors: Jackson, Natalie

subjects: demography

abstract: This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’

text: The demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. What population ageing [really] means This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’

year: 2011-05

title: Testing the synchroneity of pollen signals using tephrostratigraphy

authors: Newnham, Rewi M.

subjects: pollen signals

abstract: Since the advent of radiocarbon dating, the concept of synchronous pollen-vegetation events extending across broad regions such as the British Isles, which had emerged from earlier pollen-stratigraphic studies, has been largely refuted. Nevertheless the assumption that pollen profiles within a geographically coherent area should exhibit broadly comparable and synchronous pollen signals still holds currency among some palynologists. This assumption is tested here by comparing pollen spectra between lateglacial and postglacial sites in northern New Zealand, until recently unaffected by human activity, where independent correlations are obtained by tephrochronology. At sites of similar size, morphology, and depositional environment within the same phytogeomorphic region, it is possible to achieve accurate palynological correlations, provided local taxa and those representing ecologically disparate source species are omitted from the pollen datasets. However, anomalous correlations may still occur and are more likely when sites with different depositional environments or at greater distances are compared. These results suggest that the concept of synchronous pollen signals, even between nearby sites with similar depositional setting, is not universally applicable and it is possible that erroneous palynostratigraphic correlations have been made in the past.

text: Testing the synchroneity of pollen signals using tephrostratigraphy Since the advent of radiocarbon dating, the concept of synchronous pollen-vegetation events extending across broad regions such as the British Isles, which had emerged from earlier pollen-stratigraphic studies, has been largely refuted. Nevertheless the assumption that pollen profiles within a geographically coherent area should exhibit broadly comparable and synchronous pollen signals still holds currency among some palynologists. This assumption is tested here by comparing pollen spectra between lateglacial and postglacial sites in northern New Zealand, until recently unaffected by human activity, where independent correlations are obtained by tephrochronology. At sites of similar size, morphology, and depositional environment within the same phytogeomorphic region, it is possible to achieve accurate palynological correlations, provided local taxa and those representing ecologically disparate source species are omitted from the pollen datasets. However, anomalous correlations may still occur and are more likely when sites with different depositional environments or at greater distances are compared. These results suggest that the concept of synchronous pollen signals, even between nearby sites with similar depositional setting, is not universally applicable and it is possible that erroneous palynostratigraphic correlations have been made in the past.

year: 1999

title: Understanding ‘higher’ Māori fertility in a ‘low’ fertility context: Does cultural identity make a difference?

authors: Rarere, Moana

subjects: Maori fertility

abstract: The Māori fertility transition brought an end to decades of very high fertility rates, and a convergence towards long-term fertility levels similar to Pākehā/New Zealand European women. However, important differences endure. The Māori total fertility rate (TFR) remains above replacement level, and Māori women have children earlier and over a longer period. All of this has and still is occurring in a society that facilitates and favours low fertility and small family sizes. Using births data and cultural identity markers in the New Zealand Census, this paper explores the influence of culture as a contributing factor to higher fertility outcomes amongst Māori women in a low-fertility society.

text: Understanding ‘higher’ Māori fertility in a ‘low’ fertility context: Does cultural identity make a difference? The Māori fertility transition brought an end to decades of very high fertility rates, and a convergence towards long-term fertility levels similar to Pākehā/New Zealand European women. However, important differences endure. The Māori total fertility rate (TFR) remains above replacement level, and Māori women have children earlier and over a longer period. All of this has and still is occurring in a society that facilitates and favours low fertility and small family sizes. Using births data and cultural identity markers in the New Zealand Census, this paper explores the influence of culture as a contributing factor to higher fertility outcomes amongst Māori women in a low-fertility society.

year: 2018