title: A simple forecasting scheme for predicting low rainfalls in Funafuti, Tuvalu

authors: Vavae, Hilia

subjects: long-range forecasting

abstract: The development of some ability for forecasting low rainfalls would be helpful in Tuvalu as rainwater is the only source of fresh water in the country. The subsurface water is brackish and saline so the entire country depends totally on rainwater for daily domestic supplies, agricultural and farming activities. More importantly, these atolls are often influenced by droughts which consequently make inadequate drinking water an issue. A simple graph-based forecasting scheme is developed and presented in this thesis for forecasting below average mean rainfall in Funafuti over the next n-month period. The approach uses precursor ocean surface temperature data to make predictions of below average rainfall for n = 1, 2   12. The simplicity of the approach makes it a suitable method for the country and thus for the Tuvalu Meteorological Service to use as an operational forecasting tool in the climate forecasting desk. The graphical method was derived from standardised monthly rainfalls from the Funafuti manual raingauge for the period January 1945 to July 2007. The method uses lag-1 and-lag 2 NINO4 sea surface temperatures to define whether prediction conditions hold. The persistence of predictability tends to be maintained when the observed NINO4 ocean surface temperatures fall below 26.0oC. Although the developed method has a high success probability of up to 80 percent, this can only be achieved when conditions are within the predictable field. A considerable number of below average rainfall periods are not within the predictable field and therefore cannot be forecast by this method. However, the graphical approach has particular value in warning when an existing drought is likely to continue.

text: A simple forecasting scheme for predicting low rainfalls in Funafuti, Tuvalu The development of some ability for forecasting low rainfalls would be helpful in Tuvalu as rainwater is the only source of fresh water in the country. The subsurface water is brackish and saline so the entire country depends totally on rainwater for daily domestic supplies, agricultural and farming activities. More importantly, these atolls are often influenced by droughts which consequently make inadequate drinking water an issue. A simple graph-based forecasting scheme is developed and presented in this thesis for forecasting below average mean rainfall in Funafuti over the next n-month period. The approach uses precursor ocean surface temperature data to make predictions of below average rainfall for n = 1, 2   12. The simplicity of the approach makes it a suitable method for the country and thus for the Tuvalu Meteorological Service to use as an operational forecasting tool in the climate forecasting desk. The graphical method was derived from standardised monthly rainfalls from the Funafuti manual raingauge for the period January 1945 to July 2007. The method uses lag-1 and-lag 2 NINO4 sea surface temperatures to define whether prediction conditions hold. The persistence of predictability tends to be maintained when the observed NINO4 ocean surface temperatures fall below 26.0oC. Although the developed method has a high success probability of up to 80 percent, this can only be achieved when conditions are within the predictable field. A considerable number of below average rainfall periods are not within the predictable field and therefore cannot be forecast by this method. However, the graphical approach has particular value in warning when an existing drought is likely to continue.

year: 2008

title: Desolidifying culture: Bauman, liquid theory, and race concerns in public relations

authors: Xifra, Jordi

subjects: public relation

abstract: This article examines approaches to race in public relations and seeks to reframe them through the work of Zygmunt Bauman. After a brief survey of recent race-concerned interventions in the literature, I contend that the mainstream field still tends to avoid anxieties around race in 3 main ways: by considering race from a functionalist business orientation rather than a social equity perspective; by embedding, or freezing, race in relatively static, quantitative, and unemotional conceptualizations of culture and ethnicity; and by acting as if race is no longer an issue in a multicultural, or postrace society. I find these approaches inadequate to the task of comprehending a swift-moving and unsettled present characterized by massive population movements. To improve the field's engagement with the cultural and demographic fluidity of contemporary conditions, especially in relation to race, I open up possibilities for public relations by drawing from Bauman's concept of liquid society and his methodological creativity.

text: Desolidifying culture: Bauman, liquid theory, and race concerns in public relations This article examines approaches to race in public relations and seeks to reframe them through the work of Zygmunt Bauman. After a brief survey of recent race-concerned interventions in the literature, I contend that the mainstream field still tends to avoid anxieties around race in 3 main ways: by considering race from a functionalist business orientation rather than a social equity perspective; by embedding, or freezing, race in relatively static, quantitative, and unemotional conceptualizations of culture and ethnicity; and by acting as if race is no longer an issue in a multicultural, or postrace society. I find these approaches inadequate to the task of comprehending a swift-moving and unsettled present characterized by massive population movements. To improve the field's engagement with the cultural and demographic fluidity of contemporary conditions, especially in relation to race, I open up possibilities for public relations by drawing from Bauman's concept of liquid society and his methodological creativity.

year: 2011

title: Kava and Maaori: New drug fashion or re-engagement with 'kawa'? [Invited presentation]

authors: Aporosa, S. 'Apo'

abstract: It is estimated there are more than 20,000 kava users in New Zealand on an average Friday or Saturday night, with increasing interest and uptake of this indigenous drink by Māori. This presentation argues that some of that increased use of kava by Māori can be interpreted as a cultural expression of pre-migration Hawaiki, rather than simply a new interaction with a foreign drug substance.

text: Kava and Maaori: New drug fashion or re-engagement with 'kawa'? [Invited presentation] It is estimated there are more than 20,000 kava users in New Zealand on an average Friday or Saturday night, with increasing interest and uptake of this indigenous drink by Māori. This presentation argues that some of that increased use of kava by Māori can be interpreted as a cultural expression of pre-migration Hawaiki, rather than simply a new interaction with a foreign drug substance.

year: 2016