title: Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand

authors: Purdie, Jennifer Margaret

subjects: New Zealand

abstract: The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis.
Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts.
Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models.
Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment.
Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand.

text: Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis.
Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts.
Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models.
Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment.
Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand.

year: 2010

title: "Let's all hold hands and cross the line together!" Competition and gifted learners

authors: Ballam, Nadine Dawn

abstract: Competition appears to have become increasingly discouraged in educational settings in New Zealand in recent years, with a push towards ‘protecting’ our children from being constantly compared with others or experiencing failure. This article reports on a study that explored the lived experiences of gifted and talented young people from low socioeconomic backgrounds. These young people reflect on the role that competition and their competitive natures played in their talent development. A number of implications for practitioners are identified in relation to how competition might enhance or limit levels of motivation and the subsequent achievements of gifted and talented young people.

text: "Let's all hold hands and cross the line together!" Competition and gifted learners Competition appears to have become increasingly discouraged in educational settings in New Zealand in recent years, with a push towards ‘protecting’ our children from being constantly compared with others or experiencing failure. This article reports on a study that explored the lived experiences of gifted and talented young people from low socioeconomic backgrounds. These young people reflect on the role that competition and their competitive natures played in their talent development. A number of implications for practitioners are identified in relation to how competition might enhance or limit levels of motivation and the subsequent achievements of gifted and talented young people.

year: 2015

title: Social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand: Analysing its evolution to  inform, improve, and justify its future

authors: Antric, Tim

subjects: Social marketing

abstract: Plotting the evolution and experience of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, this thesis charts a creative landscape of productive future research directions in the field.
Starting with the question, “What can the social marketing discipline learn from the unique experience of social marketers in Aotearoa New Zealand?”, the research draws from appreciative inquiry interviews with 20 experienced social marketers and reviews of relevant government documents and published commentaries. Analysis of the findings sparked three substantive papers included in this thesis by publication: two of these have already been published, and one is currently being revised for resubmission. Presented in chapters four to six, the three papers analyse the growth and decline of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand; the overlapping functions of social marketing and public relations; and the incorporation of indigenous communities’ values into social marketing.
1.	The growth and decline of social marketing
In an original developmental framework for social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, the first of the three papers tracks four phases through four different governments as follows: (1) Foundation (1984-1990); (2) Establishment (1990-1999); (3) Growth (1999-2008); and (4) Decline (2008-2017).  The research found that political support is key to enabling ongoing social marketing contributions to social change and argues for the development of an evidence base for effective communication to political decision-makers to attract such support.
2.	Public relations, reputation and social marketing 
In identifying the strong interdisciplinary nature of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, the second paper focuses on the intersections of public relations, marketing, advertising and health promotion. It illustrates how local definitions of, and practices within, social marketing draw from different disciplines. 
Social marketing has also been shaped by the nation’s founding document, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (The Treaty of Waitangi). The Crown’s revised principles of Te Tiriti offer further opportunity to improve social marketing through indigenous autonomy, partnership, active protection, equity and options.
3.	Decolonising social marketing through an indigenous lens
The third paper tackles the question: can social marketing address health inequity between Māori and non-Maori? It deals with this question in the context of the international shift in social marketing away from a focus on individual change to a focus on societal and social change. The paper’s findings support an ongoing critical analysis of social marketing from an indigenous worldview.
Conclusions
Overall, the thesis looks at the impact of political ideologies on the function of social marketing and makes novel suggestions on how social marketing academics and practitioners can attract political support. It calls for increasing interdisciplinarity to engage effectively with contemporary issues and encourages social marketers to search for “soul” in organisations. 
The thesis also identifies indigenous Māori culture as a potential inspiration for social marketers to improve their interactions with indigenous people in Aotearoa New Zealand as well as across the globe. It recommends that future social marketing interventions not only be informed by indigenous worldviews but also be led by indigenous communities involved from the planning stages.

text: Social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand: Analysing its evolution to  inform, improve, and justify its future Plotting the evolution and experience of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, this thesis charts a creative landscape of productive future research directions in the field.
Starting with the question, “What can the social marketing discipline learn from the unique experience of social marketers in Aotearoa New Zealand?”, the research draws from appreciative inquiry interviews with 20 experienced social marketers and reviews of relevant government documents and published commentaries. Analysis of the findings sparked three substantive papers included in this thesis by publication: two of these have already been published, and one is currently being revised for resubmission. Presented in chapters four to six, the three papers analyse the growth and decline of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand; the overlapping functions of social marketing and public relations; and the incorporation of indigenous communities’ values into social marketing.
1.	The growth and decline of social marketing
In an original developmental framework for social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, the first of the three papers tracks four phases through four different governments as follows: (1) Foundation (1984-1990); (2) Establishment (1990-1999); (3) Growth (1999-2008); and (4) Decline (2008-2017).  The research found that political support is key to enabling ongoing social marketing contributions to social change and argues for the development of an evidence base for effective communication to political decision-makers to attract such support.
2.	Public relations, reputation and social marketing 
In identifying the strong interdisciplinary nature of social marketing in Aotearoa New Zealand, the second paper focuses on the intersections of public relations, marketing, advertising and health promotion. It illustrates how local definitions of, and practices within, social marketing draw from different disciplines. 
Social marketing has also been shaped by the nation’s founding document, Te Tiriti o Waitangi (The Treaty of Waitangi). The Crown’s revised principles of Te Tiriti offer further opportunity to improve social marketing through indigenous autonomy, partnership, active protection, equity and options.
3.	Decolonising social marketing through an indigenous lens
The third paper tackles the question: can social marketing address health inequity between Māori and non-Maori? It deals with this question in the context of the international shift in social marketing away from a focus on individual change to a focus on societal and social change. The paper’s findings support an ongoing critical analysis of social marketing from an indigenous worldview.
Conclusions
Overall, the thesis looks at the impact of political ideologies on the function of social marketing and makes novel suggestions on how social marketing academics and practitioners can attract political support. It calls for increasing interdisciplinarity to engage effectively with contemporary issues and encourages social marketers to search for “soul” in organisations. 
The thesis also identifies indigenous Māori culture as a potential inspiration for social marketers to improve their interactions with indigenous people in Aotearoa New Zealand as well as across the globe. It recommends that future social marketing interventions not only be informed by indigenous worldviews but also be led by indigenous communities involved from the planning stages.

year: 2021