title: Prediction: coveted, yet forsaken? Introducing a cross-validated predictive ability test in partial least squares path modeling

authors: Liengaard, Benjamin Dybro

subjects: Social Sciences

abstract: Management researchers often develop theories and policies that are forward‐looking. The prospective outlook of predictive modeling, where a model predicts unseen or new data, can complement the retrospective nature of causal‐explanatory modeling that dominates the field. Partial least squares (PLS) path modeling is an excellent tool for building theories that offer both explanation and prediction. A limitation of PLS, however, is the lack of a statistical test to assess whether a proposed or alternative theoretical model offers significantly better out‐of‐sample predictive power than a benchmark or an established model. Such an assessment of predictive power is essential for theory development and validation, and for selecting a model on which to base managerial and policy decisions. We introduce the cross‐validated predictive ability test (CVPAT) to conduct a pairwise comparison of predictive power of competing models, and substantiate its performance via multiple Monte Carlo studies. We propose a stepwise predictive model comparison procedure to guide researchers, and demonstrate CVPAT's practical utility using the well‐known American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) model.

text: Prediction: coveted, yet forsaken? Introducing a cross-validated predictive ability test in partial least squares path modeling Management researchers often develop theories and policies that are forward‐looking. The prospective outlook of predictive modeling, where a model predicts unseen or new data, can complement the retrospective nature of causal‐explanatory modeling that dominates the field. Partial least squares (PLS) path modeling is an excellent tool for building theories that offer both explanation and prediction. A limitation of PLS, however, is the lack of a statistical test to assess whether a proposed or alternative theoretical model offers significantly better out‐of‐sample predictive power than a benchmark or an established model. Such an assessment of predictive power is essential for theory development and validation, and for selecting a model on which to base managerial and policy decisions. We introduce the cross‐validated predictive ability test (CVPAT) to conduct a pairwise comparison of predictive power of competing models, and substantiate its performance via multiple Monte Carlo studies. We propose a stepwise predictive model comparison procedure to guide researchers, and demonstrate CVPAT's practical utility using the well‐known American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) model.

year: 2020

title: Addressing Canine Separation Anxiety Using Systematic Desensitization and Counter-conditioning

authors: Babington, Ocean Marie

subjects: Behaviour

abstract: A canine’s distress response to the owner’s absence such as vocalisation, destruction and inappropriate elimination is a welfare issue, as ongoing occurrences of the behaviour can lead to a canine being relinquished, re-homed or euthanized. I aimed to identify if systematic desensitization or counter- conditioning were effective interventions at reducing separation-related behaviours when implemented individually without the support of additional behavioural techniques. Five canines that displayed separation-related behaviours were recruited for treatment. Video cameras were used to monitor the latency and frequency of separation-related behaviours for every absence during each condition. Each canine was randomly placed into either treatment Group A, applying systematic desensitization first then counter-conditioning, or Group B (applying counter-conditioning first then systematic desensitization). Treatment was changed if separation-related behaviours did not display evidence of reducing during the first treatment. Implementing systematic desensitization or counter- conditioning independently did not reduce or eliminate separation-related behaviours of canines as a long-term solution. Using a video camera to observe separation-related behaviours was beneficial for identifying if the owner-reported behaviours were occurring, as well as observing additional behaviours elicited by the owner’s absence that did not produce evidence. In this research, owner compliance reduced during systematic desensitization which resulted in an increase in, or no change in separation-related behaviours. However, due to the fixed location of the video camera, separation-related behaviours may have been over- or under-reported during data collection. Further investigation into different combinations of behavioural techniques that are effective and practical to apply for owners is suggested.

text: Addressing Canine Separation Anxiety Using Systematic Desensitization and Counter-conditioning A canine’s distress response to the owner’s absence such as vocalisation, destruction and inappropriate elimination is a welfare issue, as ongoing occurrences of the behaviour can lead to a canine being relinquished, re-homed or euthanized. I aimed to identify if systematic desensitization or counter- conditioning were effective interventions at reducing separation-related behaviours when implemented individually without the support of additional behavioural techniques. Five canines that displayed separation-related behaviours were recruited for treatment. Video cameras were used to monitor the latency and frequency of separation-related behaviours for every absence during each condition. Each canine was randomly placed into either treatment Group A, applying systematic desensitization first then counter-conditioning, or Group B (applying counter-conditioning first then systematic desensitization). Treatment was changed if separation-related behaviours did not display evidence of reducing during the first treatment. Implementing systematic desensitization or counter- conditioning independently did not reduce or eliminate separation-related behaviours of canines as a long-term solution. Using a video camera to observe separation-related behaviours was beneficial for identifying if the owner-reported behaviours were occurring, as well as observing additional behaviours elicited by the owner’s absence that did not produce evidence. In this research, owner compliance reduced during systematic desensitization which resulted in an increase in, or no change in separation-related behaviours. However, due to the fixed location of the video camera, separation-related behaviours may have been over- or under-reported during data collection. Further investigation into different combinations of behavioural techniques that are effective and practical to apply for owners is suggested.

year: 2019

title: Tracking patterns of tribal identification in the New Zealand census, 1991 to 2006

authors: Kukutai, Tahu

abstract: Despite the growing political and economic importance of iwi in New Zealand, little attention has been given to their changing demography. Using data from the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings, we analyse the growth trajectories of four iwi - Ngāi Tahu, Waikato, Ngāti Awa and Tūhoe - between 1991 and 2006. We find a great deal of variation in iwi growth between censuses and over the entire focal period. In most instances, iwi birth cohorts increased rather than decreased in size, and gains from “new” members were especially marked among children, the middle-aged and women. The findings confirm the importance of accounting for non-demographic factors when projecting and planning for future iwi population growth.

text: Tracking patterns of tribal identification in the New Zealand census, 1991 to 2006 Despite the growing political and economic importance of iwi in New Zealand, little attention has been given to their changing demography. Using data from the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings, we analyse the growth trajectories of four iwi - Ngāi Tahu, Waikato, Ngāti Awa and Tūhoe - between 1991 and 2006. We find a great deal of variation in iwi growth between censuses and over the entire focal period. In most instances, iwi birth cohorts increased rather than decreased in size, and gains from “new” members were especially marked among children, the middle-aged and women. The findings confirm the importance of accounting for non-demographic factors when projecting and planning for future iwi population growth.

year: 2013