title: Rapid response data-driven reconstructions for storm surge around New Zealand

authors: Tausía, J

abstract: In conjunction with tides, storm surge is one major driver of coastal flooding associated with storm events. Because local inundation is strongly modulated by the local shape of the coastline and the bathymetric slope, accurate storm surge predictions using traditional numerical models require the use of very fine grids and are hence resource intensive. Therefore, the performance of a live prediction system based on such methods will likely be subject to a trade-off between prediction accuracy, prediction speed and cost. This study explores the use of data driven methods as an alternative to numerical models to reconstruct the daily storm surge maximum levels along the entire coast of New Zealand. Firstly, several atmospheric predictors are utilized that incorporate different variables, time lags and spatial domains, using 3 statistical models, in a selected number of locations in New Zealand, to find the combination that optimizes the reconstruction. Finally, the storm surge daily maxima are reconstructed with the different statistical models along the entire coast, using the best performing predictor. Results show very good performance for the best atmospheric predictor and statistical model, providing average values of 0.88 for the Pearson correlation coefficient and 4.3 cm for the root mean squared error metric (RMSE) (the average value for the RMSE in the 99% percentile is 8.2 cm). For the Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE; incorporating 3 sub-metrics: correlation, bias term and variability term), which is the metric used to rank the models, the average value is 0.82. Our results highlight the suitability of data driven models to simulate storm surge maximum levels, and prove the methodology is appropriate for finding a well performing atmospheric predictor that is able for reconstruct these values. Moreover, this methodology can be also applied to new variables, regions and problems, as there are no physical restrictions on the used predictors nor predictands.

text: Rapid response data-driven reconstructions for storm surge around New Zealand In conjunction with tides, storm surge is one major driver of coastal flooding associated with storm events. Because local inundation is strongly modulated by the local shape of the coastline and the bathymetric slope, accurate storm surge predictions using traditional numerical models require the use of very fine grids and are hence resource intensive. Therefore, the performance of a live prediction system based on such methods will likely be subject to a trade-off between prediction accuracy, prediction speed and cost. This study explores the use of data driven methods as an alternative to numerical models to reconstruct the daily storm surge maximum levels along the entire coast of New Zealand. Firstly, several atmospheric predictors are utilized that incorporate different variables, time lags and spatial domains, using 3 statistical models, in a selected number of locations in New Zealand, to find the combination that optimizes the reconstruction. Finally, the storm surge daily maxima are reconstructed with the different statistical models along the entire coast, using the best performing predictor. Results show very good performance for the best atmospheric predictor and statistical model, providing average values of 0.88 for the Pearson correlation coefficient and 4.3 cm for the root mean squared error metric (RMSE) (the average value for the RMSE in the 99% percentile is 8.2 cm). For the Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE; incorporating 3 sub-metrics: correlation, bias term and variability term), which is the metric used to rank the models, the average value is 0.82. Our results highlight the suitability of data driven models to simulate storm surge maximum levels, and prove the methodology is appropriate for finding a well performing atmospheric predictor that is able for reconstruct these values. Moreover, this methodology can be also applied to new variables, regions and problems, as there are no physical restrictions on the used predictors nor predictands.

year: 2023-04-01

title: Vitamin D, innate immunity and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia

authors: Leow, Leong

subjects: Vitamin D

abstract: We investigated the associations between vitamin D status, the antimicrobial peptides cathelicidin and beta defensin-2 and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia. In hospitalised patients with community acquired pneumonia, vitamin D deficiency but not antimicrobial peptide levels were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Vitamin D was not associated with levels of the antimicrobial peptide cathelicidin or beta defensin-2.

text: Vitamin D, innate immunity and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia We investigated the associations between vitamin D status, the antimicrobial peptides cathelicidin and beta defensin-2 and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia. In hospitalised patients with community acquired pneumonia, vitamin D deficiency but not antimicrobial peptide levels were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Vitamin D was not associated with levels of the antimicrobial peptide cathelicidin or beta defensin-2.

year: 2011

title: The anthropologist as tribal advocate

authors: Hopa, Ngapare K

subjects: economic conditions

abstract: My colleague has outlined some of the major issues facing New Zealand and its indigenous Polynesians - the Maaori - who not so long ago were ranked among the most documented in the world and the country as THE laboratory of race relations.
The present disadvantaged and dependent status of Maaori people show how illusory that notion is and, for New Zealand anthropologists, the challenge it presents in helping Maaori to attain socio-economic sovereignty within the 'partnership' promised by the Treaty of Waitangi.
In the late 60s and since, a few 'radical' mostly 'native' anthropologists can be said to have risen to the challenge that Gough (1968) and others, laid down, but it cannot be said, even now, that the profession as a whole in New Zealand, has been responsive.
Perhaps it is still committed to the myth of scientific objectivity, or, after regarding themselves as champions of a powerless and marginal people, has not recovered from the accusation of impotency during the social ferment of the 70s and since. To be fair, there were a few individuals who were allied with the protest movement but whose contributions were not acknowledged. They rode out the storm however and have continued to contribute significantly to the Maaori cause.

text: The anthropologist as tribal advocate My colleague has outlined some of the major issues facing New Zealand and its indigenous Polynesians - the Maaori - who not so long ago were ranked among the most documented in the world and the country as THE laboratory of race relations.
The present disadvantaged and dependent status of Maaori people show how illusory that notion is and, for New Zealand anthropologists, the challenge it presents in helping Maaori to attain socio-economic sovereignty within the 'partnership' promised by the Treaty of Waitangi.
In the late 60s and since, a few 'radical' mostly 'native' anthropologists can be said to have risen to the challenge that Gough (1968) and others, laid down, but it cannot be said, even now, that the profession as a whole in New Zealand, has been responsive.
Perhaps it is still committed to the myth of scientific objectivity, or, after regarding themselves as champions of a powerless and marginal people, has not recovered from the accusation of impotency during the social ferment of the 70s and since. To be fair, there were a few individuals who were allied with the protest movement but whose contributions were not acknowledged. They rode out the storm however and have continued to contribute significantly to the Maaori cause.

year: 1988