title: Water Quality Modelling of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere

authors: Hamilton, David P.

abstract: As a component of work to contribute towards the management of water quality of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere, the University of Waikato was subcontracted by University of Otago to apply a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model to the lake. The primary funder for this work was Environment Canterbury (ECAN), Whakaora Te Waihora and the Central Government Freshwater Cleanup Fund. The main modelling tool used in the study to simulate the dynamics of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere was the one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydrodynamic-water quality model DYRESM-CAEDYM. The model was used to reproduce observed water column data for a mid-lake station over the period 2011 to 2015. Once a satisfactory level of reproduction of these data had been achieved, an assessment was carried out with the model to examine the impact of various management scenarios on lake water quality. These scenarios involved: (i) projected changes to external nutrient loads to the lake that could be associated with future land management in the catchment and (ii) different lake water level management regimes based around opening of the barrier separating the lake from the ocean. The scenarios are intended here to be a catalyst for further hui and consultations that may adapt and refine additional scenarios, some of which may involve testing of multiple management options. The quantitative output from the model provides a component of the input required to inform strategies for lake management, alongside historical and expert knowledge, as well as analysis of measured data.

text: Water Quality Modelling of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere As a component of work to contribute towards the management of water quality of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere, the University of Waikato was subcontracted by University of Otago to apply a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model to the lake. The primary funder for this work was Environment Canterbury (ECAN), Whakaora Te Waihora and the Central Government Freshwater Cleanup Fund. The main modelling tool used in the study to simulate the dynamics of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere was the one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydrodynamic-water quality model DYRESM-CAEDYM. The model was used to reproduce observed water column data for a mid-lake station over the period 2011 to 2015. Once a satisfactory level of reproduction of these data had been achieved, an assessment was carried out with the model to examine the impact of various management scenarios on lake water quality. These scenarios involved: (i) projected changes to external nutrient loads to the lake that could be associated with future land management in the catchment and (ii) different lake water level management regimes based around opening of the barrier separating the lake from the ocean. The scenarios are intended here to be a catalyst for further hui and consultations that may adapt and refine additional scenarios, some of which may involve testing of multiple management options. The quantitative output from the model provides a component of the input required to inform strategies for lake management, alongside historical and expert knowledge, as well as analysis of measured data.

year: 2017

title: The Treaty of Waitangi and Research Ethics in Aotearoa

authors: Hudson, Maui

subjects: Treaty of Waitangi

abstract: Researchers, when engaging with Māori communities, are in a process of relationship building and this process can be guided by the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, partnership, participation and protection. The main concerns for many indigenous peoples in research revolve around respect for their indigenous rights, control over research processes and reciprocity within research relationships to ensure that equitable benefits are realised within indigenous groups. Māori have identified similar issues and these concerns can be aligned with the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. The relevance of the Treaty of Waitangi to research ethics is discussed and this paper suggests a revised interpretation of the treaty principles to incorporate the range of ethical issues that Māori have expressed as important.

text: The Treaty of Waitangi and Research Ethics in Aotearoa Researchers, when engaging with Māori communities, are in a process of relationship building and this process can be guided by the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, partnership, participation and protection. The main concerns for many indigenous peoples in research revolve around respect for their indigenous rights, control over research processes and reciprocity within research relationships to ensure that equitable benefits are realised within indigenous groups. Māori have identified similar issues and these concerns can be aligned with the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. The relevance of the Treaty of Waitangi to research ethics is discussed and this paper suggests a revised interpretation of the treaty principles to incorporate the range of ethical issues that Māori have expressed as important.

year: 2009

title: Research Briefing: Revealing the impact of predictive models as decision support tools in environmental planning

authors: Wallace, Philippa Jane

abstract: Predictive modelling is commonly used to support decision-making in planning. This paper investigates the use, reliability, and effect of this to better understand the ways in which models influence planning policy, practice, and outcomes. The methods comprise of a literature review, model scoping phase, and a systematic analysis of case law.
The paper demonstrates the importance and reach of predictive modelling as a DST in planning and how processes and outcomes are influenced by multiple pressures across the science-policy nexus. These pressures can be classified as scientific practices, political imperatives, and the spaces in-between, such as the practices of communication and translation.
First, the analysis identifies a range of issues which may affect the quality of the evidence base relied upon for decision making. These issues largely relate to the substance of models including their scientific components, evaluative techniques and modes of application. Adoption of rigorous scientific method and techniques of model evaluation are identified as strengthening the evidence base, as is clear communication of model limitations to model users and decision makers. Second, consistency, clarity and communication of key terms underpinning a predictive model are vital to effective planning decisions. Third, reduction in qualitative assumptions and connection of model development to statutory mandates and policy contexts may also increase integrity of the evidence and avoid models assuming de facto decision-making power or interfering with the role of decision makers. Fourth, modelled evidence should not be viewed in isolation but in the context of the wider environment, cumulative effects and the intent of the policy settings.
The paper provides the foundation for ongoing research with stakeholders who develop, use or analyse predictive models as decision support tools in urban planning. The next stage interrogates more deeply the key themes identified in this interim report, such as model fitness for purpose, reliability, the operation of different logics and hidden power, and the policy interface and translation of predictions.

text: Research Briefing: Revealing the impact of predictive models as decision support tools in environmental planning Predictive modelling is commonly used to support decision-making in planning. This paper investigates the use, reliability, and effect of this to better understand the ways in which models influence planning policy, practice, and outcomes. The methods comprise of a literature review, model scoping phase, and a systematic analysis of case law.
The paper demonstrates the importance and reach of predictive modelling as a DST in planning and how processes and outcomes are influenced by multiple pressures across the science-policy nexus. These pressures can be classified as scientific practices, political imperatives, and the spaces in-between, such as the practices of communication and translation.
First, the analysis identifies a range of issues which may affect the quality of the evidence base relied upon for decision making. These issues largely relate to the substance of models including their scientific components, evaluative techniques and modes of application. Adoption of rigorous scientific method and techniques of model evaluation are identified as strengthening the evidence base, as is clear communication of model limitations to model users and decision makers. Second, consistency, clarity and communication of key terms underpinning a predictive model are vital to effective planning decisions. Third, reduction in qualitative assumptions and connection of model development to statutory mandates and policy contexts may also increase integrity of the evidence and avoid models assuming de facto decision-making power or interfering with the role of decision makers. Fourth, modelled evidence should not be viewed in isolation but in the context of the wider environment, cumulative effects and the intent of the policy settings.
The paper provides the foundation for ongoing research with stakeholders who develop, use or analyse predictive models as decision support tools in urban planning. The next stage interrogates more deeply the key themes identified in this interim report, such as model fitness for purpose, reliability, the operation of different logics and hidden power, and the policy interface and translation of predictions.

year: 2018