title: Potential Lake Rotorua scenarios

authors: Gibbs, Max M.

abstract: Lakes need weeds, good ones (native species) not bad (invasive exotic species), although even exotic species are better than no weeds. Without aquatic macrophytes, a lake can become phytoplankton dominated with low clarity and high chlorophyll concentrations, a condition from which it is difficult to recover. The challenge is to manage the macrophytes to the advantage of the lake to obtain the highest practical water quality that is acceptable to lake users, within the financial constraints of a rates-based budget.
Lake Rotorua has sufficient surface area and depth that macrophytes, by themselves, are not likely to control water clarity and phytoplankton growth. However, their management may be a critical factor in the restoration of Lake Rotorua. In this talk I look at potential scenarios associated with managing aquatic macrophytes in Lake Rotorua. With the availability of a weed harvester dedicated to the Te Arawa/Rotorua lakes, there are a number of options that can be applied to Lake Rotorua that would be beneficial to the lake and the people who use the lake. For example, the weed harvester can be used to mow
the weed beds to remove part of the nutrient load from the lake and thus improve the lake water quality. The Lake Rotorua Action Plan is looking to reduce the N load on the lake by an additional 50 t y-1. Weed harvesting has the potential to achieve this. Removal of the tops of surface-reaching macrophyte beds around some stream mouths may improve
trout fishing for anglers while maintaining the habitat that the trout need in shallow water. Clearance of boat ramps and maintenance of lake access are obvious applications. So is the mowing of the large areas of macrophyte beds adjacent to Rotorua city lake front to reduce plant break-off in wave action and thereby reduce the incidence of macrophytes washing ashore. These are just some of the potential Lake Rotorua scenarios.

text: Potential Lake Rotorua scenarios Lakes need weeds, good ones (native species) not bad (invasive exotic species), although even exotic species are better than no weeds. Without aquatic macrophytes, a lake can become phytoplankton dominated with low clarity and high chlorophyll concentrations, a condition from which it is difficult to recover. The challenge is to manage the macrophytes to the advantage of the lake to obtain the highest practical water quality that is acceptable to lake users, within the financial constraints of a rates-based budget.
Lake Rotorua has sufficient surface area and depth that macrophytes, by themselves, are not likely to control water clarity and phytoplankton growth. However, their management may be a critical factor in the restoration of Lake Rotorua. In this talk I look at potential scenarios associated with managing aquatic macrophytes in Lake Rotorua. With the availability of a weed harvester dedicated to the Te Arawa/Rotorua lakes, there are a number of options that can be applied to Lake Rotorua that would be beneficial to the lake and the people who use the lake. For example, the weed harvester can be used to mow
the weed beds to remove part of the nutrient load from the lake and thus improve the lake water quality. The Lake Rotorua Action Plan is looking to reduce the N load on the lake by an additional 50 t y-1. Weed harvesting has the potential to achieve this. Removal of the tops of surface-reaching macrophyte beds around some stream mouths may improve
trout fishing for anglers while maintaining the habitat that the trout need in shallow water. Clearance of boat ramps and maintenance of lake access are obvious applications. So is the mowing of the large areas of macrophyte beds adjacent to Rotorua city lake front to reduce plant break-off in wave action and thereby reduce the incidence of macrophytes washing ashore. These are just some of the potential Lake Rotorua scenarios.

year: 2015

title: Eliciting Expert Uncertainty from Decision Making

authors: Falconer, Julia Ruth

subjects: bayesian

abstract: Eliciting expert uncertainty is a complex task with many caveats. Its usefulness in high-level decision-making and Bayesian inference makes it a necessary task that must be completed accurately. This thesis explores uncertainty elicitation in terms of prior elicitation for Bayesian inference and the wider knowledge elicitation  field. It describes methods currently available for prior elicitation and proposes a new typology, highlighting lesser-known methods. Based on the limitations of current methods, a new method for prior elicitation is introduced. This new method allows an analyst to model expert decision-making data to elicit a probability distribution that reflects expert uncertainty. An example of parole board decision-making is used to elicit a prior distribution of a prisoner re-offending upon release from prison. This example shows analysts how to elicit distributions for tabular data; however, more complex data types, such as images and reports, are often used for decision-making. To elicit distributions capturing expert uncertainty from more complex data, this thesis introduces a deep learning approach and uses an example of eliciting cancer risk, in histopathology, to illustrate this approach for the wider knowledge elicitation field.

text: Eliciting Expert Uncertainty from Decision Making Eliciting expert uncertainty is a complex task with many caveats. Its usefulness in high-level decision-making and Bayesian inference makes it a necessary task that must be completed accurately. This thesis explores uncertainty elicitation in terms of prior elicitation for Bayesian inference and the wider knowledge elicitation  field. It describes methods currently available for prior elicitation and proposes a new typology, highlighting lesser-known methods. Based on the limitations of current methods, a new method for prior elicitation is introduced. This new method allows an analyst to model expert decision-making data to elicit a probability distribution that reflects expert uncertainty. An example of parole board decision-making is used to elicit a prior distribution of a prisoner re-offending upon release from prison. This example shows analysts how to elicit distributions for tabular data; however, more complex data types, such as images and reports, are often used for decision-making. To elicit distributions capturing expert uncertainty from more complex data, this thesis introduces a deep learning approach and uses an example of eliciting cancer risk, in histopathology, to illustrate this approach for the wider knowledge elicitation field.

year: 2024

title: 'Making its own history': New Zealand historical fiction for children,1862-2008

authors: Clark, Louise Henriette

subjects: children's literature

abstract: This thesis considers historical fiction for children and young people dealing with New Zealand history from the arrival of the first Polynesian settlers to the end of the nineteenth century.  It provides both a comprehensive survey of historical novels published between 1862 and the end of 2008, and an analysis of the way the same historical events and periods have been depicted in historical novels written at different times.  Individual chapters discuss books set during specific historical periods or dealing with particular events - the pre-European period, early contact, nineteenth century immigration, the New Zealand Wars, the gold rushes, and the colonial period - in chronological order of publication.  Since children's literature is particularly adept at reflecting and promoting the dominant ideas of the society in which it is produced, the chronological consideration of these texts reveals contemporary attitudes to such issues as race relations, gender roles, class, war and conflict, and concepts of national identity, as well as the way historical fiction has responded to societal changes since the 1860s.  

The predominant themes of historical fiction set prior to 1900 are: the arrival of settlers in New Zealand; encounters with the country's indigenous inhabitants; the taming of the often hostile landscape; the assertion of the settlers' claims to 'belong' in their new land; and the establishment of New Zealand as a nation with distinctive characteristics.  There are perceptible nuances and differences in the way these themes are discussed depending on the historical moment in which individual authors are writing.  Novels of the Victorian period and early twentieth century reflect the imperialistic and evangelistic ethos of the time, and present the British settlers' right to colonize the land and the ensuing dispossession of Māori as largely unproblematic.  Subsequent historical novels, particularly those written since the 1960s, offer a more inclusive version of New Zealand history, although the lack of historical fiction for children by Māori writers means that Eurocentric views of history continue to dominate, and that all representations of Māori and their history are mediated through Pakeha writers.

Shifts in social attitudes have resulted in changes in the treatment of Māori in historical novels for children, and similar changes have occurred in the portrayal of gender, class, and ethnicity.  The passage of time has seen increased agency and a wider variety of roles allocated to Māori, female and working class characters, as well as greater ethnic diversity.  Developments in New Zealand historiography are also reflected in fiction, although at times historical fiction prefigures written histories, or provides alternative views by depicting the experience of women, children and Māori, who often did not feature in conventional histories.  While many historical novels for children, especially the earlier texts, are adventure stories set in the past and are not necessarily concerned with historical verisimilitude, an increasing number attempt to present authentic recreations of historical periods, including accounts of actual people and events, based on extensive research, and reinforced with peritextual material in the form of historical notes, bibliographies, maps and photographs.  

The role of New Zealand historical fiction for children and young people has been not only to entertain young readers and inform them about their country's past, but to create and foster a sense of national identity.

text: 'Making its own history': New Zealand historical fiction for children,1862-2008 This thesis considers historical fiction for children and young people dealing with New Zealand history from the arrival of the first Polynesian settlers to the end of the nineteenth century.  It provides both a comprehensive survey of historical novels published between 1862 and the end of 2008, and an analysis of the way the same historical events and periods have been depicted in historical novels written at different times.  Individual chapters discuss books set during specific historical periods or dealing with particular events - the pre-European period, early contact, nineteenth century immigration, the New Zealand Wars, the gold rushes, and the colonial period - in chronological order of publication.  Since children's literature is particularly adept at reflecting and promoting the dominant ideas of the society in which it is produced, the chronological consideration of these texts reveals contemporary attitudes to such issues as race relations, gender roles, class, war and conflict, and concepts of national identity, as well as the way historical fiction has responded to societal changes since the 1860s.  

The predominant themes of historical fiction set prior to 1900 are: the arrival of settlers in New Zealand; encounters with the country's indigenous inhabitants; the taming of the often hostile landscape; the assertion of the settlers' claims to 'belong' in their new land; and the establishment of New Zealand as a nation with distinctive characteristics.  There are perceptible nuances and differences in the way these themes are discussed depending on the historical moment in which individual authors are writing.  Novels of the Victorian period and early twentieth century reflect the imperialistic and evangelistic ethos of the time, and present the British settlers' right to colonize the land and the ensuing dispossession of Māori as largely unproblematic.  Subsequent historical novels, particularly those written since the 1960s, offer a more inclusive version of New Zealand history, although the lack of historical fiction for children by Māori writers means that Eurocentric views of history continue to dominate, and that all representations of Māori and their history are mediated through Pakeha writers.

Shifts in social attitudes have resulted in changes in the treatment of Māori in historical novels for children, and similar changes have occurred in the portrayal of gender, class, and ethnicity.  The passage of time has seen increased agency and a wider variety of roles allocated to Māori, female and working class characters, as well as greater ethnic diversity.  Developments in New Zealand historiography are also reflected in fiction, although at times historical fiction prefigures written histories, or provides alternative views by depicting the experience of women, children and Māori, who often did not feature in conventional histories.  While many historical novels for children, especially the earlier texts, are adventure stories set in the past and are not necessarily concerned with historical verisimilitude, an increasing number attempt to present authentic recreations of historical periods, including accounts of actual people and events, based on extensive research, and reinforced with peritextual material in the form of historical notes, bibliographies, maps and photographs.  

The role of New Zealand historical fiction for children and young people has been not only to entertain young readers and inform them about their country's past, but to create and foster a sense of national identity.

year: 2010