title: The bounded inverse Weibull distribution: An extreme value alternative for application to environmental maxima?

authors: Bardsley, W. Earl

subjects: bounded extremes

abstract: There has long been interest in making inferences about future low-probability natural events that have magnitudes greater than any in the past record. Given a stationary time series, the unbounded Type 1 and Type 2 asymptotic extreme value distributions are often invoked as giving theoretical justification for extrapolating to large magnitudes and long return periods for hydrological variables such as rainfall and river discharge. However, there is a problem in that environmental extremes are bounded above by the bounded nature of their causal variables. Extrapolation using unbounded asymptotic models therefore cannot be justified from extreme value theory and at some point there will be over-prediction of future magnitudes. This creates the apparent contradiction, for example, of annual rainfall maxima being well approximated by Type 2 extreme value distributions despite the bounded nature of rainfall magnitudes. An alternative asymptotic extreme value approach is suggested for further investigation, with the model being the asymptotic distribution of minima (Weibull distribution) applied to block maxima reciprocals. Two examples are presented where data that are well matched by Type 1 or Type 2 extreme value distributions give reciprocals suggestive of lower bounds (upper bound γ to the original data). The asymptotic model here is a 3-parameter Weibull distribution for the reciprocals, with positive location parameter γ−1. When this situation is demonstrated from data, parameter estimation can be carried out with respect to the distribution of reciprocals of 3-parameter Weibull random variables. This distribution is referenced here as the bounded inverse Weibull distribution. A maximum likelihood parameter estimation methodology is presented, together with a parametric bootstrap approach for obtaining one-sided upper confidence limits to γ. When data permits estimation of γ, the bounded inverse Weibull distribution is suggested as an improved alternative to Type 1 or Type 2 extreme value distributions because the upper bound reality is recognised. However, extensive application to many data sets is required to evaluate the practical utility of the bounded approach for extrapolating beyond the largest recorded event.

text: The bounded inverse Weibull distribution: An extreme value alternative for application to environmental maxima? There has long been interest in making inferences about future low-probability natural events that have magnitudes greater than any in the past record. Given a stationary time series, the unbounded Type 1 and Type 2 asymptotic extreme value distributions are often invoked as giving theoretical justification for extrapolating to large magnitudes and long return periods for hydrological variables such as rainfall and river discharge. However, there is a problem in that environmental extremes are bounded above by the bounded nature of their causal variables. Extrapolation using unbounded asymptotic models therefore cannot be justified from extreme value theory and at some point there will be over-prediction of future magnitudes. This creates the apparent contradiction, for example, of annual rainfall maxima being well approximated by Type 2 extreme value distributions despite the bounded nature of rainfall magnitudes. An alternative asymptotic extreme value approach is suggested for further investigation, with the model being the asymptotic distribution of minima (Weibull distribution) applied to block maxima reciprocals. Two examples are presented where data that are well matched by Type 1 or Type 2 extreme value distributions give reciprocals suggestive of lower bounds (upper bound γ to the original data). The asymptotic model here is a 3-parameter Weibull distribution for the reciprocals, with positive location parameter γ−1. When this situation is demonstrated from data, parameter estimation can be carried out with respect to the distribution of reciprocals of 3-parameter Weibull random variables. This distribution is referenced here as the bounded inverse Weibull distribution. A maximum likelihood parameter estimation methodology is presented, together with a parametric bootstrap approach for obtaining one-sided upper confidence limits to γ. When data permits estimation of γ, the bounded inverse Weibull distribution is suggested as an improved alternative to Type 1 or Type 2 extreme value distributions because the upper bound reality is recognised. However, extensive application to many data sets is required to evaluate the practical utility of the bounded approach for extrapolating beyond the largest recorded event.

year: 2021

title: Athlete level, sport-type, and gender influences on training, mental health, and sleep during the early COVID-19 lockdown in Malaysia

authors: Washif, JA

abstract: Purpose: We evaluated the extent of changes in training practices, recovery, mental health, and sleep patterns of athletes during the early COVID-19 lockdown in a single country-cohort. Methods: A total of 686 athletes (59% male, 41% female; 9% World Class, 28% International, 29% National, 26% State, 8% Recreational) from 50 sports (45% individual, 55% team) in Malaysia completed an online, survey-based questionnaire study. The questions were related to training practices (including recovery and injury), mental health, and sleep patterns. Results: Relative to pre-lockdown, training intensity (−34%), frequency (−20%, except World-Class), and duration (−24%–59%, especially International/World-Class) were compromised, by the mandated lockdown. During the lockdown, more space/access (69%) and equipment (69%) were available for cardiorespiratory training, than technical and strength; and these resources favoured World-Class athletes. Most athletes trained for general strength/health (88%) and muscular endurance (71%); and some used innovative/digital training tools (World-Class 48% vs. lower classification-levels ≤34%). More World-Class, International, and National athletes performed strength training, plyometrics, and sport-specific technical skills with proper equipment, than State/Recreational athletes. More females (42%) sourced training materials from social media than males (29%). Some athletes (38%) performed injury prevention exercises; 18% had mild injuries (knees 29%, ankles 26%), and 18% received a medical diagnosis (International 31%). Lower-level athletes (e.g., State 44%) disclosed that they were mentally more vulnerable; and felt more anxious (36% vs. higher-levels 14%–21%). Sleep quality and quantity were “normal” (49% for both), “improved” (35% and 27%), and only 16% and 14% (respectively) stated “worsened” sleep. Conclusion: Lockdown compromised training-related practices, especially in lower-level athletes. Athletes are in need of assistance with training, and tools to cope with anxiety that should be tailored to individual country requirements during lockdown situations. In particular, goal-driven (even if it is at home) fitness training, psychological, financial, and lifestyle support can be provided to reduce the difficulties associated with lockdowns. Policies and guidelines that facilitate athletes (of all levels) to train regularly during the lockdown should be developed.

text: Athlete level, sport-type, and gender influences on training, mental health, and sleep during the early COVID-19 lockdown in Malaysia Purpose: We evaluated the extent of changes in training practices, recovery, mental health, and sleep patterns of athletes during the early COVID-19 lockdown in a single country-cohort. Methods: A total of 686 athletes (59% male, 41% female; 9% World Class, 28% International, 29% National, 26% State, 8% Recreational) from 50 sports (45% individual, 55% team) in Malaysia completed an online, survey-based questionnaire study. The questions were related to training practices (including recovery and injury), mental health, and sleep patterns. Results: Relative to pre-lockdown, training intensity (−34%), frequency (−20%, except World-Class), and duration (−24%–59%, especially International/World-Class) were compromised, by the mandated lockdown. During the lockdown, more space/access (69%) and equipment (69%) were available for cardiorespiratory training, than technical and strength; and these resources favoured World-Class athletes. Most athletes trained for general strength/health (88%) and muscular endurance (71%); and some used innovative/digital training tools (World-Class 48% vs. lower classification-levels ≤34%). More World-Class, International, and National athletes performed strength training, plyometrics, and sport-specific technical skills with proper equipment, than State/Recreational athletes. More females (42%) sourced training materials from social media than males (29%). Some athletes (38%) performed injury prevention exercises; 18% had mild injuries (knees 29%, ankles 26%), and 18% received a medical diagnosis (International 31%). Lower-level athletes (e.g., State 44%) disclosed that they were mentally more vulnerable; and felt more anxious (36% vs. higher-levels 14%–21%). Sleep quality and quantity were “normal” (49% for both), “improved” (35% and 27%), and only 16% and 14% (respectively) stated “worsened” sleep. Conclusion: Lockdown compromised training-related practices, especially in lower-level athletes. Athletes are in need of assistance with training, and tools to cope with anxiety that should be tailored to individual country requirements during lockdown situations. In particular, goal-driven (even if it is at home) fitness training, psychological, financial, and lifestyle support can be provided to reduce the difficulties associated with lockdowns. Policies and guidelines that facilitate athletes (of all levels) to train regularly during the lockdown should be developed.

year: 2023-01-11

title: HIEMPA: Hybrid Instruments from Electroacoustic Manipulation and Models of Pütorino and Aquascape

authors: Whalley, Ian

subjects: music

abstract: The HIEMPA project combined a team of people with technical, artistic, environmental and cultural expertise towards an artistic outcome aiming to extend the New Zealand sonic art tradition. The work involved collecting audio samples from the aquascape of the Ruakuri Caves and Nature Reserve in Waitomo, South Waikato, New Zealand; and samples of a variety of pütorino – a New Zealand Mäori wind instrument. Following a machine learning analysis of this audio material and an analysis of the performance material, hybrid digital instruments were built and mapped to suitable hardware triggers. The new instruments are playable in realtime, along with the electroacoustic manipulation of pütorino performances. The project takes into account the environmental and cultural significance of the source material, with the results to be released as a set of compositions. This paper discusses the background research and process of the project.

text: HIEMPA: Hybrid Instruments from Electroacoustic Manipulation and Models of Pütorino and Aquascape The HIEMPA project combined a team of people with technical, artistic, environmental and cultural expertise towards an artistic outcome aiming to extend the New Zealand sonic art tradition. The work involved collecting audio samples from the aquascape of the Ruakuri Caves and Nature Reserve in Waitomo, South Waikato, New Zealand; and samples of a variety of pütorino – a New Zealand Mäori wind instrument. Following a machine learning analysis of this audio material and an analysis of the performance material, hybrid digital instruments were built and mapped to suitable hardware triggers. The new instruments are playable in realtime, along with the electroacoustic manipulation of pütorino performances. The project takes into account the environmental and cultural significance of the source material, with the results to be released as a set of compositions. This paper discusses the background research and process of the project.

year: 2008