title: Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect?  Some empirical evidence

authors: Foo, Dani

subjects: International tourism

abstract: The report departs from conventional time series analysis and investigates the existence of long memory (LRD) in the stream of daily visitors, arriving from various sources to New Zealand from 1997 to 2010, using selected estimators of the Hurst-exponent. The daily arrivals of visitors are treated as a stream of "digital signals" with the inherent noise. After minimizing the noise (i.e. the presence of short-term trends, periodicities, and cycles) we found the existence of significant long memory embedded in our data of daily visitors from all sources and in the aggregate. Strong evidence of embedded “long memory” implies that Joseph Effect – that good times beget good times and bad times beget bad – whose existence in the underlying process may have interesting implications for tourism policy makers. Our findings suggest evidence of such long term memory in tourist arrival data. Further, unless this long memory effect is taken into consideration, any traditional statistical analysis based on Gaussian and Poisson assumptions may be overly biased.

text: Does New Zealand visitors follow the Joseph Effect?  Some empirical evidence The report departs from conventional time series analysis and investigates the existence of long memory (LRD) in the stream of daily visitors, arriving from various sources to New Zealand from 1997 to 2010, using selected estimators of the Hurst-exponent. The daily arrivals of visitors are treated as a stream of "digital signals" with the inherent noise. After minimizing the noise (i.e. the presence of short-term trends, periodicities, and cycles) we found the existence of significant long memory embedded in our data of daily visitors from all sources and in the aggregate. Strong evidence of embedded “long memory” implies that Joseph Effect – that good times beget good times and bad times beget bad – whose existence in the underlying process may have interesting implications for tourism policy makers. Our findings suggest evidence of such long term memory in tourist arrival data. Further, unless this long memory effect is taken into consideration, any traditional statistical analysis based on Gaussian and Poisson assumptions may be overly biased.

year: 2011

title: Evaluation of a sudden brake warning system: Effect on the response time of the following driver

authors: Isler, Robert B.

subjects: driving

abstract: This study used a video-based braking simulation dual task to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the effect of a sudden brake warning system (SBWS) in a leading passenger vehicle on the response time of the following driver. The primary task required the participants (N = 25, 16 females, full NZ license holders) to respond to sudden braking manoeuvres of a lead vehicle during day and night driving, wet and dry conditions and in rural and urban traffic, while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task using a computer mouse. The SBWS in the lead vehicle consisted of g-force controlled activation of the rear hazard lights (the rear indicators flashed), in addition to the standard brake lights. Overall, the results revealed that responses to the braking manoeuvres of the leading vehicles when the hazard lights were activated by the warning system were 0.34 s (19%) faster compared to the standard brake lights. The SBWS was particularly effective when the simulated braking scenario of the leading vehicle did not require an immediate and abrupt braking response. Given this, the SBWS may also be beneficial for allowing smoother deceleration, thus reducing fuel consumption. These preliminary findings justify a larger, more ecologically valid laboratory evaluation which may lead to a naturalistic study in order to test this new technology in ‘real world’ braking situations.

text: Evaluation of a sudden brake warning system: Effect on the response time of the following driver This study used a video-based braking simulation dual task to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the effect of a sudden brake warning system (SBWS) in a leading passenger vehicle on the response time of the following driver. The primary task required the participants (N = 25, 16 females, full NZ license holders) to respond to sudden braking manoeuvres of a lead vehicle during day and night driving, wet and dry conditions and in rural and urban traffic, while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task using a computer mouse. The SBWS in the lead vehicle consisted of g-force controlled activation of the rear hazard lights (the rear indicators flashed), in addition to the standard brake lights. Overall, the results revealed that responses to the braking manoeuvres of the leading vehicles when the hazard lights were activated by the warning system were 0.34 s (19%) faster compared to the standard brake lights. The SBWS was particularly effective when the simulated braking scenario of the leading vehicle did not require an immediate and abrupt braking response. Given this, the SBWS may also be beneficial for allowing smoother deceleration, thus reducing fuel consumption. These preliminary findings justify a larger, more ecologically valid laboratory evaluation which may lead to a naturalistic study in order to test this new technology in ‘real world’ braking situations.

year: 2010

title: Finding synergistic conservation values? Māori tikanga, science, resource management and law

authors: Simon, Katie

subjects: Indigenous knowledge

abstract: In this doctorate, I provide a balanced and collaborative approach to knowledge/value change between the contesting worldviews of indigenous knowledge and western science, termed 'synergistic'. My search for synergy is comparative and reconciliatory. This endeavours to overcome the popular pre-occupation with conflict and opposition. Rather, both difference and similarity are recognised. Through the comparison of such synergy, I argue that Māori development requires for its further advancement a focus not only on difference and conflict, but also on affinity and convergence.

My primary concern is to establish a better understanding of the synergistic, adaptive strategies or indigenous innovation of Māori kaitiaki, environmental stewards. I investigate conflicting and converging Māori and western scientific conservation and use values in Aotearoa/New Zealand  environmental governance and management regimes under the Resource Management Act 1991, with specific regard to indicator development. The balance of values were compared in ecological environmental governance, from five Aotearoa governmental authorities and three Māori river communities, utilising Māori and western social science methods. My focus on indicators pinpoints contesting knowledge/value change between the marginalisation of indigenous knowledge and dominance of western science. This seeks to highlight the potential viability of Māori kaitiakitanga, stewardship in global and national terms of sustainability.  

However, potential synergy is held back by a prevailing viewpoint of the indigenous worldview as backward, past-oriented and non-synergistic. An oppositional dogma predominates, which is a key problem to overcome. It spans world and national literature, resulting in considerable gaps in knowledge on synergy, conceptually, methodologically, empirically and analytically.  


This is addressed by an authoritative Māori synergistic standpoint from my own cultural lens and decolonised theorising, termed 'nuanced problem solving'. I articulate both worldviews in knowledge/value change through comparative, evolutionary, multi-dimensional, cross-cultural and inter-disciplinary research on synergy. My nuanced problem solving encapsulates the two main parts of the doctorate, whereby synergy is correlated between theory and social practice. Part one deals with value comparison in theory utilising high abstracted concepts and methods at the global level of environmental governance. Part two deals with value balance in social practice utilising medium abstracted and concrete empirical and analytical research at global, national, regional, district and cross-tribal levels of environmental governance. Potential synergy cross-cuts each part from high abstracted thought down and from the practical flax roots up. I argue that Māori advancement fluctuates between them. 

Drawing on cultural and theoretical leanings of the Māori synergistic standpoint, both a strong correlation with existing theory and expanded synergistic theorising was found. Due to the expansiveness of the research, these correlated findings only provide an embryonic understanding of potential synergy.

A postscript describes my other work on synergy with five external agencies concerning foreshore, lakeside, wastewater, land disposal and carbon marketing kaitiakitanga.  I argue that additional research on synergy is needed in order to further advance Māori.

text: Finding synergistic conservation values? Māori tikanga, science, resource management and law In this doctorate, I provide a balanced and collaborative approach to knowledge/value change between the contesting worldviews of indigenous knowledge and western science, termed 'synergistic'. My search for synergy is comparative and reconciliatory. This endeavours to overcome the popular pre-occupation with conflict and opposition. Rather, both difference and similarity are recognised. Through the comparison of such synergy, I argue that Māori development requires for its further advancement a focus not only on difference and conflict, but also on affinity and convergence.

My primary concern is to establish a better understanding of the synergistic, adaptive strategies or indigenous innovation of Māori kaitiaki, environmental stewards. I investigate conflicting and converging Māori and western scientific conservation and use values in Aotearoa/New Zealand  environmental governance and management regimes under the Resource Management Act 1991, with specific regard to indicator development. The balance of values were compared in ecological environmental governance, from five Aotearoa governmental authorities and three Māori river communities, utilising Māori and western social science methods. My focus on indicators pinpoints contesting knowledge/value change between the marginalisation of indigenous knowledge and dominance of western science. This seeks to highlight the potential viability of Māori kaitiakitanga, stewardship in global and national terms of sustainability.  

However, potential synergy is held back by a prevailing viewpoint of the indigenous worldview as backward, past-oriented and non-synergistic. An oppositional dogma predominates, which is a key problem to overcome. It spans world and national literature, resulting in considerable gaps in knowledge on synergy, conceptually, methodologically, empirically and analytically.  


This is addressed by an authoritative Māori synergistic standpoint from my own cultural lens and decolonised theorising, termed 'nuanced problem solving'. I articulate both worldviews in knowledge/value change through comparative, evolutionary, multi-dimensional, cross-cultural and inter-disciplinary research on synergy. My nuanced problem solving encapsulates the two main parts of the doctorate, whereby synergy is correlated between theory and social practice. Part one deals with value comparison in theory utilising high abstracted concepts and methods at the global level of environmental governance. Part two deals with value balance in social practice utilising medium abstracted and concrete empirical and analytical research at global, national, regional, district and cross-tribal levels of environmental governance. Potential synergy cross-cuts each part from high abstracted thought down and from the practical flax roots up. I argue that Māori advancement fluctuates between them. 

Drawing on cultural and theoretical leanings of the Māori synergistic standpoint, both a strong correlation with existing theory and expanded synergistic theorising was found. Due to the expansiveness of the research, these correlated findings only provide an embryonic understanding of potential synergy.

A postscript describes my other work on synergy with five external agencies concerning foreshore, lakeside, wastewater, land disposal and carbon marketing kaitiakitanga.  I argue that additional research on synergy is needed in order to further advance Māori.

year: 2007