title: Using agent-based modelling for small area household projections: a New Zealand case study

authors: Marais, Anton Louis

subjects: Household distribution

abstract: In New Zealand, the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) is the guiding legislation that sets out how the environment is managed. The territorial authorities are charged with regulating how the environment is managed in their jurisdiction. In order to effectively manage any resource, good and robust planning processes are required. Population change is the factor that has the greatest impact on the environment, and is one of the most challenging to regulate, thus for the territorial authority planners, knowing where and when infrastructure investment is most likely required is key to fulfilling their statutory requirement.
This line of investigation has been driven by an ever increasing need for more spatially detailed projections of where and when changes are most likely to take place. The investigation and subsequent development of spatially detailed household projections transcends three territorial authorities in the lower Waikato river catchment situated in New Zealand.
An agent-based model was developed in which the individual agents were households. The aim of the model was to produce a simplified simulation of the location choices made by the members of a household in a housing market that is governed by councils’ infrastructure provision, household rents, transport costs and the benefit derived from the neighbourhood amenities and the environment. This model simulates the distribution of households over a twelve year period from 2013 to 2025. In the model the households were programmed to move to vacant properties in order to minimise their residential costs. Each time an agent moves this provides new potential options for all other households; thus the simulation runs and the households move until all households settle in their least cost locations, representing the distribution of households in 2025. The incorporation of multiple territorial authorities provides a more holistic approach than the prevailing approach which is based on disaggregating top level projection with the no further account of population movement outside the top-level migration assumption.
The results of the model calibration indicate the model performs well with a 16.6% RMSE at the smallest spatial unit. The projected results produce growth patterns that fall within the expectations of planning staff of the councils. These staff members have affirmed the model’s and input assumptions, and indicate the outcomes to be both useful and plausible. 
The results demonstrate the relationship between the councils and their respective growth plan strategies. The scenarios were developed to, demonstrate the relationship between the availability of vacant land and the cost to occupy a property, which ultimately impacts the flux of residents to or away from the city. 
With some broad assumptions and limitations, this model is distinctive in its approach as it is developed with the intention of being an applied tool to be used by the three councils. It has the further distinction as modelling the behaviours of individual households rather than the behaviours of an entire population, which is the unique in New Zealand and amongst a few applied models of this nature wide (Triantakonstantis & Mountrakis, 2012).

text: Using agent-based modelling for small area household projections: a New Zealand case study In New Zealand, the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) is the guiding legislation that sets out how the environment is managed. The territorial authorities are charged with regulating how the environment is managed in their jurisdiction. In order to effectively manage any resource, good and robust planning processes are required. Population change is the factor that has the greatest impact on the environment, and is one of the most challenging to regulate, thus for the territorial authority planners, knowing where and when infrastructure investment is most likely required is key to fulfilling their statutory requirement.
This line of investigation has been driven by an ever increasing need for more spatially detailed projections of where and when changes are most likely to take place. The investigation and subsequent development of spatially detailed household projections transcends three territorial authorities in the lower Waikato river catchment situated in New Zealand.
An agent-based model was developed in which the individual agents were households. The aim of the model was to produce a simplified simulation of the location choices made by the members of a household in a housing market that is governed by councils’ infrastructure provision, household rents, transport costs and the benefit derived from the neighbourhood amenities and the environment. This model simulates the distribution of households over a twelve year period from 2013 to 2025. In the model the households were programmed to move to vacant properties in order to minimise their residential costs. Each time an agent moves this provides new potential options for all other households; thus the simulation runs and the households move until all households settle in their least cost locations, representing the distribution of households in 2025. The incorporation of multiple territorial authorities provides a more holistic approach than the prevailing approach which is based on disaggregating top level projection with the no further account of population movement outside the top-level migration assumption.
The results of the model calibration indicate the model performs well with a 16.6% RMSE at the smallest spatial unit. The projected results produce growth patterns that fall within the expectations of planning staff of the councils. These staff members have affirmed the model’s and input assumptions, and indicate the outcomes to be both useful and plausible. 
The results demonstrate the relationship between the councils and their respective growth plan strategies. The scenarios were developed to, demonstrate the relationship between the availability of vacant land and the cost to occupy a property, which ultimately impacts the flux of residents to or away from the city. 
With some broad assumptions and limitations, this model is distinctive in its approach as it is developed with the intention of being an applied tool to be used by the three councils. It has the further distinction as modelling the behaviours of individual households rather than the behaviours of an entire population, which is the unique in New Zealand and amongst a few applied models of this nature wide (Triantakonstantis & Mountrakis, 2012).

year: 2016

title: Cylindrical spikes

authors: Moughal, Muhammad Zubair Ali

subjects: Science & Technology

abstract: The Geroch/Stephani transformation is a solution-generating transformation, and may generate spiky solutions. The spikes in solutions generated so far are either early-time permanent spikes or transient spikes. We want to generate a solution with a late-time permanent spike. We achieve this by applying Stephani's transformation with the rotational Killing vector field (KVF) of the locally rotationally symmetric Jacobs solution. The late-time permanent spike occurs along the cylindrical axis. Using a mixed KVF, the generated solution also features a rich variety of transient structures. We introduce a new technique to analyse these structures. Our findings lead us to discover a transient behaviour, which we call the overshoot transition. These discoveries compel us to revise the description of transient spikes.

text: Cylindrical spikes The Geroch/Stephani transformation is a solution-generating transformation, and may generate spiky solutions. The spikes in solutions generated so far are either early-time permanent spikes or transient spikes. We want to generate a solution with a late-time permanent spike. We achieve this by applying Stephani's transformation with the rotational Killing vector field (KVF) of the locally rotationally symmetric Jacobs solution. The late-time permanent spike occurs along the cylindrical axis. Using a mixed KVF, the generated solution also features a rich variety of transient structures. We introduce a new technique to analyse these structures. Our findings lead us to discover a transient behaviour, which we call the overshoot transition. These discoveries compel us to revise the description of transient spikes.

year: 2021

title: Understanding the construction of belonging in a for-profit ECE centre: An ethnographic study

authors: Westerbeke, Lynley Ann

subjects: Belonging

abstract: Participation in high quality early childhood education [ECE] is recognised as having long ranging academic and social benefits for children, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds (Mitchell, Wylie & Carr, 2008).   In 2010 the ECE Participation Programme was successfully introduced to increase enrolment in ECE for targeted groups, such as Māori, Pasifika, and low income families.  I argue that focusing on increased participation alone is limiting and participation requires being viewed alongside the notion of belonging.  With the majority of children participating in for-profit ECE centres in Aotearoa New Zealand (Ministry of Education, 2015) I suggest that what children are participating in merits greater investigation.    
In this thesis belonging is positioned as not simply obtaining membership, but utilising Rogoff’s (2003) understanding of participation, it is viewed as something which is highly influential, where core values are transmitted and transformed.
The research questions guiding this thesis are:
1.	What affordances and challenges to belonging are identified by stakeholders participating in a privately owned, for-profit, ECE centre?
2.	How is the ethical stewardship of Te Whāriki reflected in the leadership’s decision making?
This thesis used a critical ethnographic methodology, and was conducted over a nine month period in a for-profit ECE centre, with the researcher in the role of participant observer.  The centre is located in a lower socio-economic area of an inner city suburb and is accessed by families who at the time of the study had only 30% of its parents in paid employment.  The majority of children identified as Māori and lived in close proximity to the centre, and all teachers at the centre identified as Pākehā.  The stakeholders identified for this study were the children, their parents and the teachers.  Three teachers participated in the study and four children were selected for case study, aged between two and four and a half years.  Data was generated primarily through semi-structured interviews with the children, their parents and the teachers, and observation of the setting.  The data was viewed utilising Rogoff’s (2003) three foci of analysis, with three contributing factors to belonging identified by participants; values, relationships and leadership.
The thesis argues that belonging is complex and participation in for-profit ECE services is an ethical concern, not only for the children and their families but also for teachers.  To make sense of the aligned yet often contradicting perspectives of the stakeholders I propose a belonging framework, conceptualised to bring understanding to the construction of belonging within the centre.  It suggests that belonging to the centre can be viewed from three distinct viewpoints; it can be observed, lived, and framed.   The study evidenced that the day-to-day lived experiences of the children are not fully known by parents and, while also lived, belonging is primarily observed for this cohort.  Within the context of lived belonging the teachers’ and leadership’s philosophical and pedagogical approaches meet, and often collide.  The child is placed at the heart of the framework where belonging is lived and it is here that meaning for this group is primarily created, and cultural values are transmitted and transformed.  The third perspective is how belonging is framed, with the leaders’ operational decision making setting the parameters for the stakeholders’ participation.  It is in this space that the actual values guiding the setting are revealed.
My thesis aims to explain the impact on the stakeholders’ sense of belonging when a government funded centre is driven by agendas not fully aligned with the intentions of the democratic and bicultural curriculum, Te Whāriki.  This study adds to the literature on for-profit ECE services, participation in ECE in Aotearoa New Zealand, and leadership in ECE.

text: Understanding the construction of belonging in a for-profit ECE centre: An ethnographic study Participation in high quality early childhood education [ECE] is recognised as having long ranging academic and social benefits for children, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds (Mitchell, Wylie & Carr, 2008).   In 2010 the ECE Participation Programme was successfully introduced to increase enrolment in ECE for targeted groups, such as Māori, Pasifika, and low income families.  I argue that focusing on increased participation alone is limiting and participation requires being viewed alongside the notion of belonging.  With the majority of children participating in for-profit ECE centres in Aotearoa New Zealand (Ministry of Education, 2015) I suggest that what children are participating in merits greater investigation.    
In this thesis belonging is positioned as not simply obtaining membership, but utilising Rogoff’s (2003) understanding of participation, it is viewed as something which is highly influential, where core values are transmitted and transformed.
The research questions guiding this thesis are:
1.	What affordances and challenges to belonging are identified by stakeholders participating in a privately owned, for-profit, ECE centre?
2.	How is the ethical stewardship of Te Whāriki reflected in the leadership’s decision making?
This thesis used a critical ethnographic methodology, and was conducted over a nine month period in a for-profit ECE centre, with the researcher in the role of participant observer.  The centre is located in a lower socio-economic area of an inner city suburb and is accessed by families who at the time of the study had only 30% of its parents in paid employment.  The majority of children identified as Māori and lived in close proximity to the centre, and all teachers at the centre identified as Pākehā.  The stakeholders identified for this study were the children, their parents and the teachers.  Three teachers participated in the study and four children were selected for case study, aged between two and four and a half years.  Data was generated primarily through semi-structured interviews with the children, their parents and the teachers, and observation of the setting.  The data was viewed utilising Rogoff’s (2003) three foci of analysis, with three contributing factors to belonging identified by participants; values, relationships and leadership.
The thesis argues that belonging is complex and participation in for-profit ECE services is an ethical concern, not only for the children and their families but also for teachers.  To make sense of the aligned yet often contradicting perspectives of the stakeholders I propose a belonging framework, conceptualised to bring understanding to the construction of belonging within the centre.  It suggests that belonging to the centre can be viewed from three distinct viewpoints; it can be observed, lived, and framed.   The study evidenced that the day-to-day lived experiences of the children are not fully known by parents and, while also lived, belonging is primarily observed for this cohort.  Within the context of lived belonging the teachers’ and leadership’s philosophical and pedagogical approaches meet, and often collide.  The child is placed at the heart of the framework where belonging is lived and it is here that meaning for this group is primarily created, and cultural values are transmitted and transformed.  The third perspective is how belonging is framed, with the leaders’ operational decision making setting the parameters for the stakeholders’ participation.  It is in this space that the actual values guiding the setting are revealed.
My thesis aims to explain the impact on the stakeholders’ sense of belonging when a government funded centre is driven by agendas not fully aligned with the intentions of the democratic and bicultural curriculum, Te Whāriki.  This study adds to the literature on for-profit ECE services, participation in ECE in Aotearoa New Zealand, and leadership in ECE.

year: 2016