title: On approximating the shape of one-dimensional posterior marginals using the low discrepancy points

authors: Joshi, Chaitanya

subjects: Science & Technology

abstract: A method to approximate Bayesian posterior by evaluating it on a low discrepancy sequence (LDS) point set has recently been proposed. However, this method does not focus on finding the posterior marginals. Finding posterior marginals when the posterior approximation is obtained using LDS is not straightforward, and as yet, there is no method to approximate one dimensional marginals using an LDS. We propose an approximation method for this problem. This method is based on an s-dimensional integration rule together with fitting a polynomial smoothing function. We state and prove results showing conditions under which this polynomial smoothing function will converge to the true one-dimensional function. We also demonstrate the computational efficiency of the new approach compared to a grid
based approach.

text: On approximating the shape of one-dimensional posterior marginals using the low discrepancy points A method to approximate Bayesian posterior by evaluating it on a low discrepancy sequence (LDS) point set has recently been proposed. However, this method does not focus on finding the posterior marginals. Finding posterior marginals when the posterior approximation is obtained using LDS is not straightforward, and as yet, there is no method to approximate one dimensional marginals using an LDS. We propose an approximation method for this problem. This method is based on an s-dimensional integration rule together with fitting a polynomial smoothing function. We state and prove results showing conditions under which this polynomial smoothing function will converge to the true one-dimensional function. We also demonstrate the computational efficiency of the new approach compared to a grid
based approach.

year: 2021-11-29

title: The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

authors: Anderson, Kym

subjects: global economy-wide model projections

abstract: Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.

text: The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030 Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.

year: 2012-08

title: My journey with te reo Māori: From primary schooling in the mid 20th century to retirement from full-time academic service in the early years of the 21st Century

authors: Houia-Roberts, Ngaere

subjects: New Zealand

abstract: This is not an academic article in the traditional sense. It is a personal account of my experiences, as a first language speaker of te reo Māori, of New Zealand's educational system from the middle of the 20th century to the early years of the 21st century, from the early days of my primary schooling, through my service as a teacher, teacher trainer and academic researcher until my retirement from full-time academic service in 2005. A great deal has been written about the ways in which attitudes and approaches to te reo Māori have changed over that period of time but very little has been written about how it felt to be part of these changes. Our society is based on facts and feelings. If our mokopuna are to understand the fabric of our society, they need to have access to feelings as well as to facts. In this paper, weft and warp, facts and feelings, are woven together. This personal account is dedicated to our mokopuna, to all of our mokopuna, whatever their origin and whatever their colour. The future of our society depends upon their understanding.

text: My journey with te reo Māori: From primary schooling in the mid 20th century to retirement from full-time academic service in the early years of the 21st Century This is not an academic article in the traditional sense. It is a personal account of my experiences, as a first language speaker of te reo Māori, of New Zealand's educational system from the middle of the 20th century to the early years of the 21st century, from the early days of my primary schooling, through my service as a teacher, teacher trainer and academic researcher until my retirement from full-time academic service in 2005. A great deal has been written about the ways in which attitudes and approaches to te reo Māori have changed over that period of time but very little has been written about how it felt to be part of these changes. Our society is based on facts and feelings. If our mokopuna are to understand the fabric of our society, they need to have access to feelings as well as to facts. In this paper, weft and warp, facts and feelings, are woven together. This personal account is dedicated to our mokopuna, to all of our mokopuna, whatever their origin and whatever their colour. The future of our society depends upon their understanding.

year: 2006-02