title: Adaptation of New Zealand dairy farms to climate change: An integrated, farm-level analysis

authors: Kalaugher, Electra

subjects: interdisciplinary research

abstract: The dairy sector is a cornerstone of the New Zealand economy and as such, it is important to understand the ways in which it is likely to be affected by climate change, whether it will need to adapt, and if so, how this can best be achieved. The overall goal of this research was to analyse potential strategies for New Zealand dairy farms to adapt to projected climate change. For this purpose, an integrated biophysical and socio-economic research framework was developed. Drawing on recognised frameworks for the analysis of climate change adaptation, together with systems analysis methodologies, the framework sets out an integrated process for analysing potential adaptation strategies at farm level.

Six case study farms were selected for the analysis, representing major dairying regions in New Zealand and covering a range of climatic zones and management approaches. The farmers selected were experienced and respected operators, in order to draw on their knowledge of farming systems resilience. Qualitative social research provided insights into the way the farmers saw their farming systems and how climate change issues were placed in the context of other challenges facing the farmers. It also provided a farmer perspective on some of the driving forces that influence the current trajectories of New Zealand dairy systems, in particular their concerns around the effects of environmental regulation and changes in farm structure, which may affect the future adaptive capacity of their farming systems. 

The next step in the analysis was to model the farms in the DairyNZ Whole Farm Model (WFM) under dynamically downscaled climate change scenarios provided by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). This showed significant potential for some adaptations to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change. For example, making and feeding out more silage, and changing the pasture species modelled, showed benefits for nearly all farming systems. However, there were limitations in the capacity of the model to accurately represent the on-farm challenges of implementing such adaptations. Feedback from the farmers highlighted the limitations, as well as the potential value of such modelling work, emphasising the importance of assessing such research in context.

A second round of modelling work was carried out based on the suggestions of individual farmers for their own farms. The suggestions made by farmers were predominantly incremental, rather than transformational adaptations, reflecting the farmer’s positive assessment of the current level of resilience in their farming systems, but also reflecting their operational and personal constraints.  Modelling under present conditions and future climate showed that many of the adaptations did mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, there was still a largely negative impact compared to the same adaptations carried out under the baseline (current) climate. This implies that ongoing work, innovation and technological adjustments will be required to optimise these farming systems under future climate conditions.

For both incremental and transformational adaptations, there are two key factors in finding resilient pathways when challenged with the uncertainty surrounding climate change and other pressures. The first is the maintenance of flexibility and the avoidance of path dependence, to ensure ongoing adaptive capacity. Secondly, it needs to be recognised that resilience occurs at different scales. In some cases, adaptation measures that increase resilience at farm level, such as importing feed, may reduce resilience at a broader scale, which may in turn come under pressure from climate change.

The combined methodological approach meant that it was possible to reach beyond the limitations of each and form a more holistic picture of potential adaptation strategies. Some strategies lent themselves easily to testing in a model, while others were well beyond its scope.  Conversely, the modelling work enabled a more objective and quantified assessment of farmer perceptions about the resilience of their systems. 

Every adaptation decision involves a set of trade-offs. In conclusion, some of the trade-offs identified as part of this study are summarised for the range of adaptation strategies as originally identified from the literature. Conscious articulation of these trade-offs, in terms of the factors important for ongoing system resilience, is the first step in better informed choices that may lead to more sustainable development of future farming systems.

text: Adaptation of New Zealand dairy farms to climate change: An integrated, farm-level analysis The dairy sector is a cornerstone of the New Zealand economy and as such, it is important to understand the ways in which it is likely to be affected by climate change, whether it will need to adapt, and if so, how this can best be achieved. The overall goal of this research was to analyse potential strategies for New Zealand dairy farms to adapt to projected climate change. For this purpose, an integrated biophysical and socio-economic research framework was developed. Drawing on recognised frameworks for the analysis of climate change adaptation, together with systems analysis methodologies, the framework sets out an integrated process for analysing potential adaptation strategies at farm level.

Six case study farms were selected for the analysis, representing major dairying regions in New Zealand and covering a range of climatic zones and management approaches. The farmers selected were experienced and respected operators, in order to draw on their knowledge of farming systems resilience. Qualitative social research provided insights into the way the farmers saw their farming systems and how climate change issues were placed in the context of other challenges facing the farmers. It also provided a farmer perspective on some of the driving forces that influence the current trajectories of New Zealand dairy systems, in particular their concerns around the effects of environmental regulation and changes in farm structure, which may affect the future adaptive capacity of their farming systems. 

The next step in the analysis was to model the farms in the DairyNZ Whole Farm Model (WFM) under dynamically downscaled climate change scenarios provided by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). This showed significant potential for some adaptations to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change. For example, making and feeding out more silage, and changing the pasture species modelled, showed benefits for nearly all farming systems. However, there were limitations in the capacity of the model to accurately represent the on-farm challenges of implementing such adaptations. Feedback from the farmers highlighted the limitations, as well as the potential value of such modelling work, emphasising the importance of assessing such research in context.

A second round of modelling work was carried out based on the suggestions of individual farmers for their own farms. The suggestions made by farmers were predominantly incremental, rather than transformational adaptations, reflecting the farmer’s positive assessment of the current level of resilience in their farming systems, but also reflecting their operational and personal constraints.  Modelling under present conditions and future climate showed that many of the adaptations did mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, there was still a largely negative impact compared to the same adaptations carried out under the baseline (current) climate. This implies that ongoing work, innovation and technological adjustments will be required to optimise these farming systems under future climate conditions.

For both incremental and transformational adaptations, there are two key factors in finding resilient pathways when challenged with the uncertainty surrounding climate change and other pressures. The first is the maintenance of flexibility and the avoidance of path dependence, to ensure ongoing adaptive capacity. Secondly, it needs to be recognised that resilience occurs at different scales. In some cases, adaptation measures that increase resilience at farm level, such as importing feed, may reduce resilience at a broader scale, which may in turn come under pressure from climate change.

The combined methodological approach meant that it was possible to reach beyond the limitations of each and form a more holistic picture of potential adaptation strategies. Some strategies lent themselves easily to testing in a model, while others were well beyond its scope.  Conversely, the modelling work enabled a more objective and quantified assessment of farmer perceptions about the resilience of their systems. 

Every adaptation decision involves a set of trade-offs. In conclusion, some of the trade-offs identified as part of this study are summarised for the range of adaptation strategies as originally identified from the literature. Conscious articulation of these trade-offs, in terms of the factors important for ongoing system resilience, is the first step in better informed choices that may lead to more sustainable development of future farming systems.

year: 2015

title: Procreate and cherish: A note on Australia’s abrupt shift to Pro-Natalism

authors: Jackson, Natalie

subjects: Australia

abstract: After a long history of arguing that Australian governments do not intervene in the bedrooms of the nation, in 2004 the Howard Government did exactly that. Under the enthusiastic choreographing of then Treasurer Peter Costello, it implemented an explicit and indirect fertility policy in the form of a maternity payment, commonly known as the ‘Baby Bonus’. Rising fertility in Australia since that time has been widely claimed as evidence of the policy’s success. Hailed as a mini ‘baby boom’, Costello was moved to describe the policy as a shift from ‘population or perish’ to ‘procreate and cherish’. Despite arguing against it while in Opposition, the policy has been continued with only a few changes by the incumbent Rudd Government, seemingly on the grounds that it may indeed be responsible for the recent ‘nudging up’ of birth rates.
This paper traces the policy shift and concludes with a brief analysis of Australian trends across the period of the Baby Bonus (2004-2008), showing that one quarter of the increase in numbers is due to cohort size, but noting that fertility has also risen in many developed countries across the same period and thus trends in Australia may just be part of a broader trend – and/or in part an artifact of the index used to measure fertility. It also draws attention to the collateral effect of an increased dependency ratio, with the mini ‘boom’ reaching school age at the very moment the post war baby boomers reach retirement age – as forewarned by Costello in 2002 when initially rejecting the idea of a Baby Bonus.

text: Procreate and cherish: A note on Australia’s abrupt shift to Pro-Natalism After a long history of arguing that Australian governments do not intervene in the bedrooms of the nation, in 2004 the Howard Government did exactly that. Under the enthusiastic choreographing of then Treasurer Peter Costello, it implemented an explicit and indirect fertility policy in the form of a maternity payment, commonly known as the ‘Baby Bonus’. Rising fertility in Australia since that time has been widely claimed as evidence of the policy’s success. Hailed as a mini ‘baby boom’, Costello was moved to describe the policy as a shift from ‘population or perish’ to ‘procreate and cherish’. Despite arguing against it while in Opposition, the policy has been continued with only a few changes by the incumbent Rudd Government, seemingly on the grounds that it may indeed be responsible for the recent ‘nudging up’ of birth rates.
This paper traces the policy shift and concludes with a brief analysis of Australian trends across the period of the Baby Bonus (2004-2008), showing that one quarter of the increase in numbers is due to cohort size, but noting that fertility has also risen in many developed countries across the same period and thus trends in Australia may just be part of a broader trend – and/or in part an artifact of the index used to measure fertility. It also draws attention to the collateral effect of an increased dependency ratio, with the mini ‘boom’ reaching school age at the very moment the post war baby boomers reach retirement age – as forewarned by Costello in 2002 when initially rejecting the idea of a Baby Bonus.

year: 2009

title: Heritage-making in Aotearoa planning: Unsettling norms in contested urban space

authors: Hill, Carolyn Joy

subjects: Authorised heritage discourse

abstract: Heritage is currently a high-profile and often contentious topic in urban environments. As cities face growing challenges of climate change, intensification needs and cultural contestation, state-mandated heritage continues to have a significant influence on how cities are perceived, whose pasts are remembered, and what future change can be. However, this is being increasingly tested as urban pressures bring questions of who has a right to the city to the fore. 
Situated within the field of critical heritage studies, this thesis critically examines how heritage is officially “made” in the cities of Aotearoa New Zealand, and how emerging views and values may reshape these established norms for more spatially and culturally just futures. Focused on urban locations within the so-called “CANZUS” states (Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States of America (USA)), the thesis centres on statutory heritage – the objects and places that are identified and managed within state-mandated planning systems that create dominant assumptions about what is worthy of protection. As such, its contribution is at the intersection of heritage and planning as it critically queries heritage’s future legacy claims and considers what other legacies may be imagined. 
The thesis includes four key enquiries. First, it explores the history of state-led heritage-making in Aotearoa, focusing on the city of Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland. It examines the tension between contemporary urban intensification priorities and heritage / special character regulation, critiquing the narrative of heritage as a “public good” given its entanglement with spatial and cultural inequity. Second, it studies three cases of urban heritage protest across Australia, Aotearoa and the USA. These cases expose the continued inadequacy of statutory heritage-making for Indigenous and emerging aspirations, as normative approaches are embedded not only by the heritage sector itself but by the planning and legislation systems that structure its mandate. 
Third, the thesis explores the current thinking of those shaping and working within heritage’s statutory framing across Aotearoa. It finds that heritage policy leaders are cognisant of, and concerned to change, heritage’s entrenched Eurocentricity, expert dominance and material orientation, but that shifting established practice remains a multi-dimensional challenge. Finally, it investigates the perspectives of young emerging planners in the city of Kirikiriroa / Hamilton, which again foregrounds the obstacles to displacing systemic norms but also highlights planning policy’s significant potential to shape different heritage futures. 
This thesis has important implications both for Aotearoa’s urban environments and for CANZUS cities more broadly. Grounded in contemporary real-world examples, it not only exposes heritage’s imbrication with issues of urban inequity but its deeper role in maintaining settler state security, making “home” on Indigenous land. It finds that unpicking this legacy will involve more than adding the heritages of “others” into the existing canon. Rather, deeper reconsideration of heritage’s societal purpose as part of Indigenous, multi-storied and dynamic cities is required. Finally, it highlights the central role for planning in transforming the heritage field, both through statutory policy reform and through integration with broader urban objectives. However, planners will need to be better equipped for critical engagement with heritage if they are to creatively support more inclusive, democratic and malleable alternatives.

text: Heritage-making in Aotearoa planning: Unsettling norms in contested urban space Heritage is currently a high-profile and often contentious topic in urban environments. As cities face growing challenges of climate change, intensification needs and cultural contestation, state-mandated heritage continues to have a significant influence on how cities are perceived, whose pasts are remembered, and what future change can be. However, this is being increasingly tested as urban pressures bring questions of who has a right to the city to the fore. 
Situated within the field of critical heritage studies, this thesis critically examines how heritage is officially “made” in the cities of Aotearoa New Zealand, and how emerging views and values may reshape these established norms for more spatially and culturally just futures. Focused on urban locations within the so-called “CANZUS” states (Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States of America (USA)), the thesis centres on statutory heritage – the objects and places that are identified and managed within state-mandated planning systems that create dominant assumptions about what is worthy of protection. As such, its contribution is at the intersection of heritage and planning as it critically queries heritage’s future legacy claims and considers what other legacies may be imagined. 
The thesis includes four key enquiries. First, it explores the history of state-led heritage-making in Aotearoa, focusing on the city of Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland. It examines the tension between contemporary urban intensification priorities and heritage / special character regulation, critiquing the narrative of heritage as a “public good” given its entanglement with spatial and cultural inequity. Second, it studies three cases of urban heritage protest across Australia, Aotearoa and the USA. These cases expose the continued inadequacy of statutory heritage-making for Indigenous and emerging aspirations, as normative approaches are embedded not only by the heritage sector itself but by the planning and legislation systems that structure its mandate. 
Third, the thesis explores the current thinking of those shaping and working within heritage’s statutory framing across Aotearoa. It finds that heritage policy leaders are cognisant of, and concerned to change, heritage’s entrenched Eurocentricity, expert dominance and material orientation, but that shifting established practice remains a multi-dimensional challenge. Finally, it investigates the perspectives of young emerging planners in the city of Kirikiriroa / Hamilton, which again foregrounds the obstacles to displacing systemic norms but also highlights planning policy’s significant potential to shape different heritage futures. 
This thesis has important implications both for Aotearoa’s urban environments and for CANZUS cities more broadly. Grounded in contemporary real-world examples, it not only exposes heritage’s imbrication with issues of urban inequity but its deeper role in maintaining settler state security, making “home” on Indigenous land. It finds that unpicking this legacy will involve more than adding the heritages of “others” into the existing canon. Rather, deeper reconsideration of heritage’s societal purpose as part of Indigenous, multi-storied and dynamic cities is required. Finally, it highlights the central role for planning in transforming the heritage field, both through statutory policy reform and through integration with broader urban objectives. However, planners will need to be better equipped for critical engagement with heritage if they are to creatively support more inclusive, democratic and malleable alternatives.

year: 2024-12-16