title: Complex uncertainty: Long-term risk management decision making in New Zealand local government

authors: Robson, David

subjects: Local government

abstract: New Zealand’s natural hazardscape has long posed risks for government owned water infrastructure and its stakeholder communities. In the context of climate change, there are predictions that the frequency and intensity of natural hazard events are set to increase, but there are uncertainties about when such events might occur, and the severity and impact on water infrastructure. These threats are compounded by pressures such as population growth and constrained funding. There is a need, therefore, to consider the suitability of current governance arrangements and decision processes for the management of complex, long-term risk associated with state assets. This research, therefore, asks, are current local governance arrangements and associated decision-making processes for the management of water infrastructure appropriate for long-term risk management in an environment of uncertainty? The thesis addresses this question by critically evaluating the extent to which governance arrangements enable effective risk management decisions that protect government owned infrastructure from natural hazards. 
A novel conceptual framework which matches the type of problem within the scales of time and complexity is developed on the basis of a literature review on risk management, adaptability and resilience, and modes of governance across multiple levels. This framework is then used to inform an exploration of risk management decision processes. The examination of these processes involved a participatory design involving local and central government officials and associated risk management professionals. A mixed-methods approach was applied to explore experiences of risk management as it relates to water infrastructure within local government, within the context of wider relationships with central government. Following a pilot workshop with sector actors and risk professionals to establish the broad research focus, the research involved 36 semi-structured interviews and a further workshop with sector officials to discuss the findings and critique the resulting decision-making model.
The research found that current risk management decision making is characterised by, largely, a short-term horizon, this being connected with the tendency of elected representatives to operate within the three-year election cycle. The absence of a longer-term focus is explained in part by the autonomous environment within which councils operate, removed from central government oversight, and with little sharing of knowledge, expertise or costs of risk management. The key findings of the research indicate: a lack of consistent guidance and direction by central government to local government on adaptive risk management; a lack of coordination across the network of councils, specifically in terms of sharing knowledge, data and risk management activities; a lack of specificity in legislation regarding long term risk management which leaves risk decision making open to interpretation by councils; a culture of localised short term decision making in councils, with a low level of comprehension as to the management of long-term risks; short-term competing priorities for the financial resources required to manage risk; and a mistrust of internal guidance and advice due to the lack of in-house expertise, and a preference for external subject matter expertise. 
Overall, this research has identified that the complex nature of the environment of uncertainty posed by climate change has not been adequately acknowledged within local government and this is reflected in the prevailing risk management arrangements being largely reliant on annually renewed insurance arrangements based on in-house planning practices. The decision-making framework developed in this thesis acknowledges the nature of risk and the need for adaptive approaches within the constraints of time and complexity, and has potential to inform both governance arrangements and decision processes.

text: Complex uncertainty: Long-term risk management decision making in New Zealand local government New Zealand’s natural hazardscape has long posed risks for government owned water infrastructure and its stakeholder communities. In the context of climate change, there are predictions that the frequency and intensity of natural hazard events are set to increase, but there are uncertainties about when such events might occur, and the severity and impact on water infrastructure. These threats are compounded by pressures such as population growth and constrained funding. There is a need, therefore, to consider the suitability of current governance arrangements and decision processes for the management of complex, long-term risk associated with state assets. This research, therefore, asks, are current local governance arrangements and associated decision-making processes for the management of water infrastructure appropriate for long-term risk management in an environment of uncertainty? The thesis addresses this question by critically evaluating the extent to which governance arrangements enable effective risk management decisions that protect government owned infrastructure from natural hazards. 
A novel conceptual framework which matches the type of problem within the scales of time and complexity is developed on the basis of a literature review on risk management, adaptability and resilience, and modes of governance across multiple levels. This framework is then used to inform an exploration of risk management decision processes. The examination of these processes involved a participatory design involving local and central government officials and associated risk management professionals. A mixed-methods approach was applied to explore experiences of risk management as it relates to water infrastructure within local government, within the context of wider relationships with central government. Following a pilot workshop with sector actors and risk professionals to establish the broad research focus, the research involved 36 semi-structured interviews and a further workshop with sector officials to discuss the findings and critique the resulting decision-making model.
The research found that current risk management decision making is characterised by, largely, a short-term horizon, this being connected with the tendency of elected representatives to operate within the three-year election cycle. The absence of a longer-term focus is explained in part by the autonomous environment within which councils operate, removed from central government oversight, and with little sharing of knowledge, expertise or costs of risk management. The key findings of the research indicate: a lack of consistent guidance and direction by central government to local government on adaptive risk management; a lack of coordination across the network of councils, specifically in terms of sharing knowledge, data and risk management activities; a lack of specificity in legislation regarding long term risk management which leaves risk decision making open to interpretation by councils; a culture of localised short term decision making in councils, with a low level of comprehension as to the management of long-term risks; short-term competing priorities for the financial resources required to manage risk; and a mistrust of internal guidance and advice due to the lack of in-house expertise, and a preference for external subject matter expertise. 
Overall, this research has identified that the complex nature of the environment of uncertainty posed by climate change has not been adequately acknowledged within local government and this is reflected in the prevailing risk management arrangements being largely reliant on annually renewed insurance arrangements based on in-house planning practices. The decision-making framework developed in this thesis acknowledges the nature of risk and the need for adaptive approaches within the constraints of time and complexity, and has potential to inform both governance arrangements and decision processes.

year: 2021

title: The potential placebo effect of advanced footwear technology on running economy and comfort in female recreational runners

authors: Pfister, Ashlynne

abstract: Since the release of advanced footwear technology (AFT) in 2017, the running landscape has changed forever. However, researchers are unable to decisively conclude what part of AFT contributes the most to running economy (RE) improvements, with some eluding to a potential placebo effect of AFT shoes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the presence of a potential placebo effect of AFT on RE and perceptual measures in female recreational runners.

Chapter One provides a brief overview of the origins of AFT, the properties of AFT proposed to contribute to RE improvements, shoe comfort, and placebo effects in sports and footwear research. Features of AFT shoes typically are a curved geometry, a rigid plate embedded in the midsole, and a resilient and compliant energy-returning foam midsole. AFT shoes are also typically lightweight, linked with improved RE. Research generally reports an average improvement in RE of runners when wearing AFT; however, responses are variable and there are responders and non-responders to AFT.

In Chapter Two, 26 female recreational runners (age: 34.7 ± 10.1 y, VO2peak: 45.19 ± 4.65 mL/kg/min) completed one session at the University of Waikato Adams Centre for High Performance Laboratory to assess RE and perceptual measures in two pairs of women’s Nike Vaporfly NEXT% 2. Participants completed 4 x 6-minute RE trials in these two pairs of shoes. One pair was described as a performance-enhancing super shoe (SS) with AFT worn by elite athletes, and the other pair was spray-painted black and described as a “knock-off” (KO) of the performance-enhancing shoe without AFT. Data from 24 participants were analysed (age: 33.3 ± 8.9 y, VO2peak: 45.58 ± 4.17 mL/kg/min) as physiological data from two participants suggested running above their aerobic threshold. Oxygen consumption was not significantly different between SS and KO (mean difference: 0.24 ± 0.64 mL/kg/min, p = 0.077, d = 0.11 [-0.01, 0.23]). Overall comfort on a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS) was significantly greater in SS than KO (mean difference: 14.6 ± 15.0 mm, p < 0.001, d = 0.94 [0.46, 1.40]), with 87.5% of runners preferring the SS over the KO. Runners perceived running as more enjoyable and less difficult, and perceived an improved running performance and lower injury risk in SS when compared to KO based on visual analogue scale scores (p ≤ 0.009, d = 0.72 to 1.16). While no significant physiological difference was observed between shoes, a significant difference in perceived comfort and performance was observed favouring the performance-enhancing SS, suggesting a perceptual placebo effect based on shoe description alone.

Chapter Three summarises the findings and provides avenues for future research. Overall, this thesis provides evidence that product descriptions can influence the perception of shoe comfort, performance, and injury risk. The improvements in RE reported for AFT shoes appear underpinned by how runners interact with the shoe properties, rather than by a placebo effect – at least in female recreational runners. Investigating a potential placebo effect in AFT during maximal running performances may provide further insight into the performance enhancements associated with shoes containing AFT.

text: The potential placebo effect of advanced footwear technology on running economy and comfort in female recreational runners Since the release of advanced footwear technology (AFT) in 2017, the running landscape has changed forever. However, researchers are unable to decisively conclude what part of AFT contributes the most to running economy (RE) improvements, with some eluding to a potential placebo effect of AFT shoes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the presence of a potential placebo effect of AFT on RE and perceptual measures in female recreational runners.

Chapter One provides a brief overview of the origins of AFT, the properties of AFT proposed to contribute to RE improvements, shoe comfort, and placebo effects in sports and footwear research. Features of AFT shoes typically are a curved geometry, a rigid plate embedded in the midsole, and a resilient and compliant energy-returning foam midsole. AFT shoes are also typically lightweight, linked with improved RE. Research generally reports an average improvement in RE of runners when wearing AFT; however, responses are variable and there are responders and non-responders to AFT.

In Chapter Two, 26 female recreational runners (age: 34.7 ± 10.1 y, VO2peak: 45.19 ± 4.65 mL/kg/min) completed one session at the University of Waikato Adams Centre for High Performance Laboratory to assess RE and perceptual measures in two pairs of women’s Nike Vaporfly NEXT% 2. Participants completed 4 x 6-minute RE trials in these two pairs of shoes. One pair was described as a performance-enhancing super shoe (SS) with AFT worn by elite athletes, and the other pair was spray-painted black and described as a “knock-off” (KO) of the performance-enhancing shoe without AFT. Data from 24 participants were analysed (age: 33.3 ± 8.9 y, VO2peak: 45.58 ± 4.17 mL/kg/min) as physiological data from two participants suggested running above their aerobic threshold. Oxygen consumption was not significantly different between SS and KO (mean difference: 0.24 ± 0.64 mL/kg/min, p = 0.077, d = 0.11 [-0.01, 0.23]). Overall comfort on a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS) was significantly greater in SS than KO (mean difference: 14.6 ± 15.0 mm, p < 0.001, d = 0.94 [0.46, 1.40]), with 87.5% of runners preferring the SS over the KO. Runners perceived running as more enjoyable and less difficult, and perceived an improved running performance and lower injury risk in SS when compared to KO based on visual analogue scale scores (p ≤ 0.009, d = 0.72 to 1.16). While no significant physiological difference was observed between shoes, a significant difference in perceived comfort and performance was observed favouring the performance-enhancing SS, suggesting a perceptual placebo effect based on shoe description alone.

Chapter Three summarises the findings and provides avenues for future research. Overall, this thesis provides evidence that product descriptions can influence the perception of shoe comfort, performance, and injury risk. The improvements in RE reported for AFT shoes appear underpinned by how runners interact with the shoe properties, rather than by a placebo effect – at least in female recreational runners. Investigating a potential placebo effect in AFT during maximal running performances may provide further insight into the performance enhancements associated with shoes containing AFT.

year: 2024

title: Fishing activity in the Waikato and Waipa rivers

authors: Hicks, Brendan J.

subjects: fishing

abstract: The purpose of this research project is to collate information regarding the recent use of fisheries resources in the Waikato River and Waipa River catchment areas. In particular, the project sought to summarise the commercial, customary, and recreational fishing activity in the catchments of the Waikato and Waipa rivers in the spatial context of recently introduced co-governance areas. These fisheries include, but are not exclusive to, the broad range of aquatic life managed under the Fisheries Act 1996. Such information is required to support management which includes a co-management framework. The research describes the commercial, customary and recreational fisheries including species and quantities taken, fishing methods, and seasonal influences.

text: Fishing activity in the Waikato and Waipa rivers The purpose of this research project is to collate information regarding the recent use of fisheries resources in the Waikato River and Waipa River catchment areas. In particular, the project sought to summarise the commercial, customary, and recreational fishing activity in the catchments of the Waikato and Waipa rivers in the spatial context of recently introduced co-governance areas. These fisheries include, but are not exclusive to, the broad range of aquatic life managed under the Fisheries Act 1996. Such information is required to support management which includes a co-management framework. The research describes the commercial, customary and recreational fisheries including species and quantities taken, fishing methods, and seasonal influences.

year: 2013