title: Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40°C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely

authors: Zachariah, Mariam

abstract: The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 13 deaths from drowning. It brought challenging conditions for the NHS, with a spike in emergency calls, and care services supporting the elderly and vulnerable were put under increased stress, with a likely increase in heat-related deaths. The impacts were unequally distributed across demographics. Even within London, there are high levels of inequity in experienced temperatures, with certain, often poorer neighborhoods lacking green space, shade, and water, which can be lifelines during a heatwave.

While Europe experiences heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years, the recently observed heat in the UK has been so extreme that it is also a rare event in today’s climate. The observed temperatures averaged over 2 days were estimated to have a return period of approximately 100 years in the current climate. For the 1-day maximum temperatures over the region shown in Fig.1, the return time is estimated at 1 in 1000 years in the current climate. Note that return periods of temperatures vary between different measures and locations and are, therefore, highly uncertain.

At three individual stations, the 1-day maximum temperatures are as rare as 1 in 500 years in St James Park in London, about 1 in 1000 years in Durham, and only expected on average once in 1500 years in today’s climate in Cranwell, Lincolnshire. The likelihood of observing such an event in a 1.2°C cooler world is extremely low and statistically impossible in two out of the three analyzed stations.

The observational analysis shows that a UK heatwave as defined above would be about 4°C cooler in preindustrial times. To estimate how much of these observed changes is attributable to human-caused climate change, we combine climate models with the observations. It is important to highlight that all models systematically underestimate the observed trends. The combined results are thus almost certainly too conservative.

Combining the results based on observational and model analysis, we find that, for both event definitions, human-caused climate change made the event at least 10 times more likely. In the models, the same event would be about 2°C less hot in a 1.2°C cooler world, which is a much smaller change in intensity than observed. This discrepancy between the modeled and observed trends and variability also hinders confidence in projections of the future trends.

Heatwaves during the height of summer pose a substantial risk to human health and are potentially lethal. This risk is aggravated by climate change but also by other factors such as an aging population, urbanization, changing social structures, and levels of preparedness. The full impact is only known after a few weeks when the mortality figures have been analyzed. Effective heat emergency plans, together with accurate weather forecasts such as those issued before this heatwave, reduce impacts and are becoming even more important in light of the rising risks.

text: Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40°C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 13 deaths from drowning. It brought challenging conditions for the NHS, with a spike in emergency calls, and care services supporting the elderly and vulnerable were put under increased stress, with a likely increase in heat-related deaths. The impacts were unequally distributed across demographics. Even within London, there are high levels of inequity in experienced temperatures, with certain, often poorer neighborhoods lacking green space, shade, and water, which can be lifelines during a heatwave.

While Europe experiences heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years, the recently observed heat in the UK has been so extreme that it is also a rare event in today’s climate. The observed temperatures averaged over 2 days were estimated to have a return period of approximately 100 years in the current climate. For the 1-day maximum temperatures over the region shown in Fig.1, the return time is estimated at 1 in 1000 years in the current climate. Note that return periods of temperatures vary between different measures and locations and are, therefore, highly uncertain.

At three individual stations, the 1-day maximum temperatures are as rare as 1 in 500 years in St James Park in London, about 1 in 1000 years in Durham, and only expected on average once in 1500 years in today’s climate in Cranwell, Lincolnshire. The likelihood of observing such an event in a 1.2°C cooler world is extremely low and statistically impossible in two out of the three analyzed stations.

The observational analysis shows that a UK heatwave as defined above would be about 4°C cooler in preindustrial times. To estimate how much of these observed changes is attributable to human-caused climate change, we combine climate models with the observations. It is important to highlight that all models systematically underestimate the observed trends. The combined results are thus almost certainly too conservative.

Combining the results based on observational and model analysis, we find that, for both event definitions, human-caused climate change made the event at least 10 times more likely. In the models, the same event would be about 2°C less hot in a 1.2°C cooler world, which is a much smaller change in intensity than observed. This discrepancy between the modeled and observed trends and variability also hinders confidence in projections of the future trends.

Heatwaves during the height of summer pose a substantial risk to human health and are potentially lethal. This risk is aggravated by climate change but also by other factors such as an aging population, urbanization, changing social structures, and levels of preparedness. The full impact is only known after a few weeks when the mortality figures have been analyzed. Effective heat emergency plans, together with accurate weather forecasts such as those issued before this heatwave, reduce impacts and are becoming even more important in light of the rising risks.

year: 2022-07-28

title: FreeForm: An informal environment for interface prototyping

authors: Plimmer, Beryl

subjects: computer science

abstract: Best practice in interface design suggests that hand-drawn sketches are preferable at the early stages of the design process. This paper describes the FreeForm software which supports informal sketched interface design by acting as a Visual Basic Add-In. The Software utilises a digital whiteboard and pen input to support sketching and “running” of an informal prototype.

text: FreeForm: An informal environment for interface prototyping Best practice in interface design suggests that hand-drawn sketches are preferable at the early stages of the design process. This paper describes the FreeForm software which supports informal sketched interface design by acting as a Visual Basic Add-In. The Software utilises a digital whiteboard and pen input to support sketching and “running” of an informal prototype.

year: 2002

title: Waitangi Soda Springs alum dosing – Bioavailability of aluminium 2011-2020

authors: Ling, Nicholas

abstract: Continuous alum dosing of the Waitangi Soda Springs at Lake Rotoehu commenced in 2011 to reduce inflows of dissolved reactive phosphorus to Lake Rotoehu. Analyses of bioaccumulation in the tissues of kōura and goldfish from Lake Rotoehu were undertaken on animals collected annually since 2013 to determine the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of aluminium. Lake Rotoehu kōura and goldfish collected in 2013 showed slightly elevated aluminium concentrations in the gills indicating enhanced exposure to aluminium but little evidence for significant bioaccumulation in tissues. Concentrations in goldfish liver and gills were highest in 2016, but not significantly different to goldfish collected from Lake Rotorua in 2013 and flesh concentrations were low. Analyses of animals collected in 2020 confirm these earlier findings with no evidence of enhanced bioaccumulation of aluminium in Lake Rotoehu biota.

text: Waitangi Soda Springs alum dosing – Bioavailability of aluminium 2011-2020 Continuous alum dosing of the Waitangi Soda Springs at Lake Rotoehu commenced in 2011 to reduce inflows of dissolved reactive phosphorus to Lake Rotoehu. Analyses of bioaccumulation in the tissues of kōura and goldfish from Lake Rotoehu were undertaken on animals collected annually since 2013 to determine the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of aluminium. Lake Rotoehu kōura and goldfish collected in 2013 showed slightly elevated aluminium concentrations in the gills indicating enhanced exposure to aluminium but little evidence for significant bioaccumulation in tissues. Concentrations in goldfish liver and gills were highest in 2016, but not significantly different to goldfish collected from Lake Rotorua in 2013 and flesh concentrations were low. Analyses of animals collected in 2020 confirm these earlier findings with no evidence of enhanced bioaccumulation of aluminium in Lake Rotoehu biota.

year: 2021