title: Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand

authors: Zernack, Anke V.

subjects: debris avalanches

abstract: Regular large-scale edifice collapse and regrowth is a common pattern during the long lifespans of andesitic stratovolcanoes worldwide. The >130 k.y. history of Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic collapses, producing debris avalanche deposits of 1 to >7.5 km³. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one-third of the present-day equivalent cone. The resulting deposits show similar sedimentary and geomorphic features, suggesting similar proto-edifice characteristics, failure trigger mechanisms, and runout path conditions. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted; instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed. Last Glacial climatic variations are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. We demonstrate here that, if the magmatic composition erupted from stratovolcanoes is constant and basement geology conditions are stable, large-scale edifice collapse and the generation of catastrophic debris avalanches will be governed by the magma supply rate. Using a mass balance approach, a volume-frequency model can be applied to forecasting both the probable timing and volume of future edifice failure of such stratovolcanoes. In the Mount Taranaki case, the maximum potential size of a present collapse is estimated to be 7.9 km³, while the maximum interval before the next collapse is <16.2 k.y. The current annual collapse probability is ∼0.00018, with the most likely collapse being a small one (<2 km³).

text: Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand Regular large-scale edifice collapse and regrowth is a common pattern during the long lifespans of andesitic stratovolcanoes worldwide. The >130 k.y. history of Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic collapses, producing debris avalanche deposits of 1 to >7.5 km³. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one-third of the present-day equivalent cone. The resulting deposits show similar sedimentary and geomorphic features, suggesting similar proto-edifice characteristics, failure trigger mechanisms, and runout path conditions. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted; instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed. Last Glacial climatic variations are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. We demonstrate here that, if the magmatic composition erupted from stratovolcanoes is constant and basement geology conditions are stable, large-scale edifice collapse and the generation of catastrophic debris avalanches will be governed by the magma supply rate. Using a mass balance approach, a volume-frequency model can be applied to forecasting both the probable timing and volume of future edifice failure of such stratovolcanoes. In the Mount Taranaki case, the maximum potential size of a present collapse is estimated to be 7.9 km³, while the maximum interval before the next collapse is <16.2 k.y. The current annual collapse probability is ∼0.00018, with the most likely collapse being a small one (<2 km³).

year: 2012

title: An investigation into the use of machine learning for determining oestrus in cows

authors: Mitchell, R. Scott

subjects: computer science

abstract: A preliminary investigation of the application of two well-known machine learning schemes—C4.5 and FOIL—to detection of oestrus in dairy cows has been made. This is a problem of practical economic significance as each missed opportunity for artificial insemination results in 21 days lost milk production. Classifications were made on normalised deviations of milk volume production and milking order time series data. The best learning scheme was C4.5 which was able to detect 69% of oestrus events, albeit with an unacceptably high rate of "false positives" (74%). Several directions for further work and improvements are identified.

text: An investigation into the use of machine learning for determining oestrus in cows A preliminary investigation of the application of two well-known machine learning schemes—C4.5 and FOIL—to detection of oestrus in dairy cows has been made. This is a problem of practical economic significance as each missed opportunity for artificial insemination results in 21 days lost milk production. Classifications were made on normalised deviations of milk volume production and milking order time series data. The best learning scheme was C4.5 which was able to detect 69% of oestrus events, albeit with an unacceptably high rate of "false positives" (74%). Several directions for further work and improvements are identified.

year: 1995-08

title: Ma hea – which way? Mo te aha – what for?

authors: Te Awekotuku, Ngahuia

subjects: prejudice

abstract: Keynote address to the annual conference of the
NZ Psychological Society, 28 August 2004
E rau rangatira ma, tena ra koutou….
This presentation will be in four sections.
The first section will introduce two major issues, mana motuhake, and
manatangata, then we will consider some proposed legislation, the Seabed
& Foreshore Bill and the Civil Union Bill.
We will then consider strategic Maori response to political pressure over the
last three decades, and then note two recent and dramatic examples. They
are the Hikoi Takutai Moana, April 2004, and the Enough is Enough Rally,
August 2004
In the final section, we will consider the implications for psychologies and
psychologists working today in Aotearoa.

text: Ma hea – which way? Mo te aha – what for? Keynote address to the annual conference of the
NZ Psychological Society, 28 August 2004
E rau rangatira ma, tena ra koutou….
This presentation will be in four sections.
The first section will introduce two major issues, mana motuhake, and
manatangata, then we will consider some proposed legislation, the Seabed
& Foreshore Bill and the Civil Union Bill.
We will then consider strategic Maori response to political pressure over the
last three decades, and then note two recent and dramatic examples. They
are the Hikoi Takutai Moana, April 2004, and the Enough is Enough Rally,
August 2004
In the final section, we will consider the implications for psychologies and
psychologists working today in Aotearoa.

year: 2003-08