title: Measuring the Impact of HIV/AIDS on Economic Development in Zambia

authors: Siameja, Sialupapu Kanyemba

subjects: HIV/AIDS

abstract: Zambia is one of the sub-Saharan African countries with the highest rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in the world. One in seven adults is HIV positive and the epidemic disproportionately affects better educated and wealthy Zambians who have a prevalence rate almost twice that of uneducated and poor Zambians. As HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality is concentrated among people of prime working-age, its impact on the quantity and quality of the workforce is expected to have considerable adverse effects on economic activity and the welfare of households. There is no agreement on whether HIV/AIDS retards economic growth because it affects both the supply and demand of goods and services, despite it being acknowledged as a humanitarian catastrophe. This thesis undertakes simulations with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Zambia to estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS on the Zambian economy and well-being of Zambian households. Survey data are used to estimate whether HIV/AIDS adversely affects the willingness of public sector workers to live and work in rural areas where they are a vital ingredient into the economic development process of rural areas. Simulation results show significant reductions in gross domestic product (GDP) and investment at high prevalence levels like Zambia's. Sectoral output is found to decrease in all sectors especially in the labour-intensive sectors. Household incomes and consumption, for both urban and rural households, decrease leading to reduced household welfare. Results also show that a high prevalence rate leads to a reduction in the country's trade deficit. This result is driven by the larger reduction in imports relative to exports as household incomes decrease. Probit regression estimates of the willingness of public sector workers to live in rural areas found no evidence to support the view that HIV/AIDS would retard rural economic development by reducing the willingness of public sector workers to live and work in rural areas. To the contrary, HIV/AIDS variables tended to raise the probability of willingness. This thesis contributes to the body of evidence suggesting that HIV/AIDS has considerable adverse effects on economic development. By using an analysis method that takes into account the inter-relationships among the different sectors and institutions in an economy, the results are likely to be more robust and reliable than those from partial equilibrium analyses. As a means of reversing the adverse impacts of HIV/AIDS, this thesis recommends a shift in public policy from a focus on provision of free antiretroviral therapies to a focus on prevention of new infections.

text: Measuring the Impact of HIV/AIDS on Economic Development in Zambia Zambia is one of the sub-Saharan African countries with the highest rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence in the world. One in seven adults is HIV positive and the epidemic disproportionately affects better educated and wealthy Zambians who have a prevalence rate almost twice that of uneducated and poor Zambians. As HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality is concentrated among people of prime working-age, its impact on the quantity and quality of the workforce is expected to have considerable adverse effects on economic activity and the welfare of households. There is no agreement on whether HIV/AIDS retards economic growth because it affects both the supply and demand of goods and services, despite it being acknowledged as a humanitarian catastrophe. This thesis undertakes simulations with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Zambia to estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS on the Zambian economy and well-being of Zambian households. Survey data are used to estimate whether HIV/AIDS adversely affects the willingness of public sector workers to live and work in rural areas where they are a vital ingredient into the economic development process of rural areas. Simulation results show significant reductions in gross domestic product (GDP) and investment at high prevalence levels like Zambia's. Sectoral output is found to decrease in all sectors especially in the labour-intensive sectors. Household incomes and consumption, for both urban and rural households, decrease leading to reduced household welfare. Results also show that a high prevalence rate leads to a reduction in the country's trade deficit. This result is driven by the larger reduction in imports relative to exports as household incomes decrease. Probit regression estimates of the willingness of public sector workers to live in rural areas found no evidence to support the view that HIV/AIDS would retard rural economic development by reducing the willingness of public sector workers to live and work in rural areas. To the contrary, HIV/AIDS variables tended to raise the probability of willingness. This thesis contributes to the body of evidence suggesting that HIV/AIDS has considerable adverse effects on economic development. By using an analysis method that takes into account the inter-relationships among the different sectors and institutions in an economy, the results are likely to be more robust and reliable than those from partial equilibrium analyses. As a means of reversing the adverse impacts of HIV/AIDS, this thesis recommends a shift in public policy from a focus on provision of free antiretroviral therapies to a focus on prevention of new infections.

year: 2011

title: Temporal and spatial variations of cyanobacteria in Karori Reservoir, Wellington

authors: Prentice, Matthew James

subjects: Perca fluviatilis

abstract: The Lower Karori Reservoir (LKR) is a small, monomictic lake of 2.34 ha situated in the Karori Wildlife Sanctuary (KWS), Wellington.  Over the past decade cyanobacterial blooms have become a common occurrence in this water body.  In 2005 Anabaena planktonica was detected for the first time in the LKR and this species now forms dense blooms during summer.  These blooms are problematic as they reduce aesthetic appeal and have resulted in odour problems for visitors to this high profile wildlife sanctuary.  The objectives of this study were to identify key physical, chemical and biological variables influencing phytoplankton dynamics in the LKR and to use ecological models to investigate plausible management options.  The key parameters investigated, that may cause bloom formation were; summer stratification, high nutrient levels, and the food web effects of a large population of European perch (Perca fluviatilis). 

High resolution sampling was carried out every six hours over a 72 hour period during pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom periods in 2006/7 to elucidate short term temporal and spatial variations in biological and physico-chemical parameters.  Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) was used to enumerate A. planktonica populations, allowing a large number of samples to be simultaneously evaluated.  Algal densities were also estimated using conventional phytoplankton enumeration and chlorophyll a analysis.  Water samples were collected for nutrient analysis at discrete depths and profiles were taken for temperature, dissolved oxygen and photosynthetic active radiation.  Secchi depth and pH were also measured.  Weekly or fortnightly phytoplankton and zooplankton samples and physical variables have been collected at LKR since September 2005 as part of an independent sampling program carried out by the KWS, Waikato University and Cawthron Institute.  In this project the 2-year data set was used to assist with analysis of lake processes and for validation of the hydrodynamic-ecological model DYRESM-CAEDYM.  Between 12 and 15 February, 2007, electric fishing was undertaken within the LKR.  A total of 3,946 P. fluviatilis were removed and the effects on phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations were investigated.  To increase knowledge of the physiology of A. planktonica, laboratory experiments were undertaken using cultures subjected to a range of different light intensities and temperature regimes 

The phytoplankton assemblage of the LKR shows very distinct temporal variations.  Summer stratification occurred in the LKR for ~4 months each summer.  During these periods A. planktonica comprised up to 99.9% of the surface phytoplankton population.  During isothermy chlorophytes, bacillariophytes and small flagellated dinophytes are co-dominant in the phytoplankton assemblage.  The results of the QPCR showed distinct diurnal vertical movement of A. planktonica, with the highest cell concentrations occurring at 1900 hours at the surface.  Ammonium (NH4-N) is the dominant species of inorganic nitrogen during periods of stratification, while nitrate (NO3-N) is generally dominant during times of isothermy.  Phosphate concentrations at surface and depth remained at low levels throughout the sampling period.  The large surface populations of A. planktonica, are probably responsible for the elevated total nitrogen concentrations in surface waters during stratified periods.  There appeared to be some short term effects of the P. fluviatilis removal with an increase in large crustaceans (e.g., Daphnia sp.) and a reduction in A. planktonica densities observed in the months following the P. fluviatilis removal.  Only a small proportion of the total P. fluviatilis population was removed and it is unlikely that the effects will be long-lasting without subsequent removal steps. However, it seems likely that P. fluviatilis is one of the factors contributing to cyanobacterial blooms and management of this fish species should be considered in future lake restoration plans.  Growth experiments indicated A. planktonica grow over a wide range of light intensities and temperatures, although highest growth rates were generally associated with higher temperatures (25  C) and light intensities (60 - 140 μmol m-2 s-1).

Ecological and hydrodynamic trends within the LKR over a two year period were simulated with adequate success using the model DYRESM-CAEDYM.  Management scenarios simulated using DYRESM-CAEDYM suggest implementation of an artificial destratification system in the LKR may be the most practical and effective means of controlling A. planktonica blooms.  The addition of an artificial aeration system emitting air at a rate of approximately 50 l-1 s-1 should result in an isothermal system.  Without summer stratification some of the physiological features of A. planktonica (e.g., buoyancy regulation and nitrogen-fixation) that give it a competitive advantage over other phytoplankton species will be reduced.

text: Temporal and spatial variations of cyanobacteria in Karori Reservoir, Wellington The Lower Karori Reservoir (LKR) is a small, monomictic lake of 2.34 ha situated in the Karori Wildlife Sanctuary (KWS), Wellington.  Over the past decade cyanobacterial blooms have become a common occurrence in this water body.  In 2005 Anabaena planktonica was detected for the first time in the LKR and this species now forms dense blooms during summer.  These blooms are problematic as they reduce aesthetic appeal and have resulted in odour problems for visitors to this high profile wildlife sanctuary.  The objectives of this study were to identify key physical, chemical and biological variables influencing phytoplankton dynamics in the LKR and to use ecological models to investigate plausible management options.  The key parameters investigated, that may cause bloom formation were; summer stratification, high nutrient levels, and the food web effects of a large population of European perch (Perca fluviatilis). 

High resolution sampling was carried out every six hours over a 72 hour period during pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom periods in 2006/7 to elucidate short term temporal and spatial variations in biological and physico-chemical parameters.  Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) was used to enumerate A. planktonica populations, allowing a large number of samples to be simultaneously evaluated.  Algal densities were also estimated using conventional phytoplankton enumeration and chlorophyll a analysis.  Water samples were collected for nutrient analysis at discrete depths and profiles were taken for temperature, dissolved oxygen and photosynthetic active radiation.  Secchi depth and pH were also measured.  Weekly or fortnightly phytoplankton and zooplankton samples and physical variables have been collected at LKR since September 2005 as part of an independent sampling program carried out by the KWS, Waikato University and Cawthron Institute.  In this project the 2-year data set was used to assist with analysis of lake processes and for validation of the hydrodynamic-ecological model DYRESM-CAEDYM.  Between 12 and 15 February, 2007, electric fishing was undertaken within the LKR.  A total of 3,946 P. fluviatilis were removed and the effects on phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations were investigated.  To increase knowledge of the physiology of A. planktonica, laboratory experiments were undertaken using cultures subjected to a range of different light intensities and temperature regimes 

The phytoplankton assemblage of the LKR shows very distinct temporal variations.  Summer stratification occurred in the LKR for ~4 months each summer.  During these periods A. planktonica comprised up to 99.9% of the surface phytoplankton population.  During isothermy chlorophytes, bacillariophytes and small flagellated dinophytes are co-dominant in the phytoplankton assemblage.  The results of the QPCR showed distinct diurnal vertical movement of A. planktonica, with the highest cell concentrations occurring at 1900 hours at the surface.  Ammonium (NH4-N) is the dominant species of inorganic nitrogen during periods of stratification, while nitrate (NO3-N) is generally dominant during times of isothermy.  Phosphate concentrations at surface and depth remained at low levels throughout the sampling period.  The large surface populations of A. planktonica, are probably responsible for the elevated total nitrogen concentrations in surface waters during stratified periods.  There appeared to be some short term effects of the P. fluviatilis removal with an increase in large crustaceans (e.g., Daphnia sp.) and a reduction in A. planktonica densities observed in the months following the P. fluviatilis removal.  Only a small proportion of the total P. fluviatilis population was removed and it is unlikely that the effects will be long-lasting without subsequent removal steps. However, it seems likely that P. fluviatilis is one of the factors contributing to cyanobacterial blooms and management of this fish species should be considered in future lake restoration plans.  Growth experiments indicated A. planktonica grow over a wide range of light intensities and temperatures, although highest growth rates were generally associated with higher temperatures (25  C) and light intensities (60 - 140 μmol m-2 s-1).

Ecological and hydrodynamic trends within the LKR over a two year period were simulated with adequate success using the model DYRESM-CAEDYM.  Management scenarios simulated using DYRESM-CAEDYM suggest implementation of an artificial destratification system in the LKR may be the most practical and effective means of controlling A. planktonica blooms.  The addition of an artificial aeration system emitting air at a rate of approximately 50 l-1 s-1 should result in an isothermal system.  Without summer stratification some of the physiological features of A. planktonica (e.g., buoyancy regulation and nitrogen-fixation) that give it a competitive advantage over other phytoplankton species will be reduced.

year: 2008

title: Tōku tūrangawaewae: Culture, identity, and belonging for Māori homeless people

authors: Groot, Shiloh Ann Maree

subjects: Māori

abstract: To be Māori is to have a tūrangawaewae (a place of strength and belonging, a place to stand). If so, is it conceivable that Māori are homeless in our own homeland? This presentation focuses on the experiences of two Māori homeless people who took part in a 3-year research project conducted in partnership with not-for-profit service agencies. Previous research into street homelessness has all but ignored indigenous histories, circumstances and worldviews. The situation in which indigenous people find themselves requires us to rethink how we understand homelessness and the development of culturally based roles and identities on the street and beyond.

text: Tōku tūrangawaewae: Culture, identity, and belonging for Māori homeless people To be Māori is to have a tūrangawaewae (a place of strength and belonging, a place to stand). If so, is it conceivable that Māori are homeless in our own homeland? This presentation focuses on the experiences of two Māori homeless people who took part in a 3-year research project conducted in partnership with not-for-profit service agencies. Previous research into street homelessness has all but ignored indigenous histories, circumstances and worldviews. The situation in which indigenous people find themselves requires us to rethink how we understand homelessness and the development of culturally based roles and identities on the street and beyond.

year: 2010