title: Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

authors: Cameron, Michael Patrick

subjects: cohort-component model

abstract: Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.

text: Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.

year: 2011

title: Formation of children as healthy sexual beings

authors: Flanagan, Paul G.

abstract: Forming children as healthy sexual beings: What understandings of child sexuality can mean for adults who care for children. In recent decades, greater awareness of child sexual abuse (csa) in society, and the exposure of abuse within Church contexts particularly, has necessarily seen the introduction of child protection education programmes and safeguarding practices for child protection. There has also been a parallel reconfiguration of sociological theories and questions about sexuality and childhood. This paper invites a reimagining of childhood and a critical view of some of the assumptions about how approaches to risk protection have developed. Questioning concepts of ‘innocence’ as natural and some of the assumptions that children should be ignorant of sexuality until puberty, a brief historical overview is taken of childhood in relation to sexuality. Examining the philosophical ideas around childhood innocence, this notion is challenged as potentially unhelpful (and possibly harmful) to safeguarding and protection practices to keep children safe. Presenting recent research (from the UK, Australia, South Africa and NZ), an understanding of children as curious and knowing 'sexual beings' may offer communities of faith more visible and articulate ways of understanding children as sexual beings and further developing practices of safety with children. It is important that adults find the language and safe spaces to speak about these ideas.

text: Formation of children as healthy sexual beings Forming children as healthy sexual beings: What understandings of child sexuality can mean for adults who care for children. In recent decades, greater awareness of child sexual abuse (csa) in society, and the exposure of abuse within Church contexts particularly, has necessarily seen the introduction of child protection education programmes and safeguarding practices for child protection. There has also been a parallel reconfiguration of sociological theories and questions about sexuality and childhood. This paper invites a reimagining of childhood and a critical view of some of the assumptions about how approaches to risk protection have developed. Questioning concepts of ‘innocence’ as natural and some of the assumptions that children should be ignorant of sexuality until puberty, a brief historical overview is taken of childhood in relation to sexuality. Examining the philosophical ideas around childhood innocence, this notion is challenged as potentially unhelpful (and possibly harmful) to safeguarding and protection practices to keep children safe. Presenting recent research (from the UK, Australia, South Africa and NZ), an understanding of children as curious and knowing 'sexual beings' may offer communities of faith more visible and articulate ways of understanding children as sexual beings and further developing practices of safety with children. It is important that adults find the language and safe spaces to speak about these ideas.

year: 2019

title: Urban narrative: Value based urban design

authors: Mackness, Catherine

subjects: values

abstract: Presented at 2019 Australasia Conference, Regional Studies Association - A Leading and Impactful Community. Urban And Regional Wellbeing, First Nations Economies And Global Value Chains For Regional ‎Sustainability, in University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand

text: Urban narrative: Value based urban design Presented at 2019 Australasia Conference, Regional Studies Association - A Leading and Impactful Community. Urban And Regional Wellbeing, First Nations Economies And Global Value Chains For Regional ‎Sustainability, in University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Aotearoa New Zealand

year: 2019