CGIAR Initiative: From Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa <p class="ql-align-justify">The CWANA region covers a vast swathe of land across Central Asia [<a href="https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/central-asia-map.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">i</a>], West Asia [<a href="https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/Political-Map-of-Countries-of-Western-Asia.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ii</a>], and North Africa [<a href="https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/north-africa-map.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">iii</a>] and contains a great diversity of human cultures and agroecological systems. What unifies this area is a relative semi-arid and aridness that is only going to become more extreme with ongoing climate change [<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 " rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1</a>],[<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00169-3" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2</a>]. The region is expected to experience an increase in the severity and frequency of hot temperatures, agricultural and ecological droughts [iv], precipitation droughts, floods, climate variability, and climate change compound events [v] with significant consequences for society and the environment [<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">3</a>],[<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">4</a>],[<a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/6f868d4a875db3ef23ef1dc747fcf2ca-0280012022/original/MENA-Roadmap-Final-01-20.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">5</a>].</p><p class="ql-align-justify">Despite the inherent constraints in the CWANA region of a lack of productive agricultural land (in the MENA [vi] region: 33% for crops and pastures, 5% for crops alone) and severe water scarcity and unsustainable surface and groundwater abstraction (for use in agriculture) [<a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2018-en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">6</a>], the predominantly rainfed agrifood systems (70%) [<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 " rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1</a>] are frequently the largest employers of the populace and of women [<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3007" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">7</a>], and significantly contribute to national GDP and local food security [<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 " rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1</a>],[<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100353" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">8</a>]; in a region heavily dependent upon food imports [<a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2021/09/24/mena-has-a-food-security-problem-but-there-are-ways-to-address-it" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">vii</a>],[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/16/middle-east-food-fuel-crisis/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">viii</a>]. The CWANA regional agrifood systems are however incredibly vulnerable to overuse of the limited natural resources, the <span style="color: black;">biophysical effects of present and future climate change, and their interplay with societal pressures, e.g,. gender inequalities [</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2020.1743877" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">9</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2019.154" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">10</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2018.1449813" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">11</a><span style="color: black;">], youth unemployment [</span><a href="https://ifair.eu/2019/12/16/youth-unemployment-in-north-africa/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">ix</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/arabvoices/problem-unemployment-middle-east-and-north-africa-explained-three-charts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">x</a><span style="color: black;">], demographic shifts [</span><a href="https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/menara_wp_3.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">12</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.19268/JGAFS.522020.1 " rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">13</a><span style="color: black;">], predominance of small, non-specialised smallholdings [</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2018-en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">6</a><span style="color: black;">]; institutional [</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2018-en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">6</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://initiatives.cgiar.org/download;jsessionid=3EB1118B9B76A2E0DBE5E4286A7D634E%20(psu.edu)" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">14</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01191-7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">15</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2018.1433207" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">16</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2019.1707353" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">17</a><span style="color: black;">]; and economic pressures [</span><a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9846-3" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">18</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134970" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">19</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134701" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">20</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134867" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">21</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dp/2014/1403mcd.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">22</a><span style="color: black;">]. The consequences of experiencing multiple compounding events in places that do not have resilient systems in place to cope with them can be devastating. For instance, the Syrian uprising in 2011 occurred after the most severe drought on record (between 2007-2010) and the prolonged unsustainable use of freshwater resources for irrigation caused widespread crop failure and mass migration from rural to urban centres, and civil unrest [</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 " rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">1</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">23</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://fragilestatesindex.org/2021/05/20/fragile-states-index-2021-annual-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">24</a><span style="color: black;">].</span><strong> </strong></p><p class="ql-align-justify"><span style="color: black;">Many of the countries in CWANA are considered to be fragile and conflict-affected [</span><a href="https://mena.fes.de/press/e/order-to-the-chaos-understanding-and-addressing-the-intersecting-conflicts-in-the-mena-region" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">xi</a><span style="color: black;">] with Fragile States Index (FSI) scores greater than 60 that fall into the ‘warning’ and ‘alert’ categories [</span><a href="https://fragilestatesindex.org/2021/05/20/fragile-states-index-2021-annual-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">24</a><span style="color: black;">]. As elucidated by the FSI authors and others, the causal path(s) from climate change impacts, environmental degradation, and water scarcity to fragility and conflict may be: that a loss of food-, water-, and livelihood-security leads to an increase in negative coping mechanisms, psychosocial distress, and forced migration; which puts additional pressure on local economies and resources that receive the influx of migrants (or refugees); and where a lack of shared institutions to resolve conflicts arising from this situation results in social tension; which could be exploited by certain groups for political and economic gain, especially where government responses are non-existent, harmful, or ineffective; until a point is reached where social unrest and conflict break out [</span><a href="https://fragilestatesindex.org/2021/05/20/fragile-states-index-2021-annual-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">24</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://hdl.handle.net/10568/117616" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">25</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="http://visionofhumanity.org/resources" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">26</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/26207" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">27</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">28</a><span style="color: black;">],[</span><a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10071/17603" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">29</a><span style="color: black;">],[30],[</span><a href="https://www.international-alert.org/stories/climate-change-trigger-conflicts-border-rivers-central-asia/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">xiii</a><span style="color: black;">]. </span></p><p class="ql-align-justify"><span style="color: black;">Poor governance and an ineffective institutional environment create a situation whereby the root causes of fragility are not adequately addressed, leaving communities continually vulnerable to worsening threats and exacerbating social tensions [</span><a href="https://fragilestatesindex.org/2021/05/20/fragile-states-index-2021-annual-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="color: black;">24</a><span style="color: black;">].</span></p><p class="ql-align-justify"><strong>Footnotes:</strong></p><p class="ql-align-justify">[iv] A period with abnormal soil moisture deficit caused by shortages of precipitation and/or excess land evapotranspiration.</p><p class="ql-align-justify">[v] <span style="color: black;">Caused by the interaction of multiple physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales.</span></p><p class="ql-align-justify"><span style="color: black;">[vi] Middle East and North Africa (MENA).</span></p><p class="ql-align-justify"><strong>References:</strong></p><p>[<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">1</a>] <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S.&nbsp;Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Otto, I.M., Perrette, M., Rocha, M., Robinson, A. &amp; Schleussner, C.-F. 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