Uganda Programme 2018 Political update 2018. Following the 2016 general elections, there have been sustained calls for an inclusive dialogue to resolve issues which arose from the highly contested elections as well as the broader political, economic and social questions that the country is grappling with. The afro barometer report – 2017 indicates that 84% of the survey respondents acknowledge the need for a national dialogue to resolve the issues arising from the 2016 general elections.  As such, there is an initiative spearheaded by the Rt. Hon, Prime Minister – Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, to bring together key stakeholders  who work on issues of dialogue to champion the idea of and organise a national dialogue. Beyond organising the national dialogue, the proposed framework is expected to allow for coordination, harmonisation and reinforcement of efforts by the various stakeholders who work on dialogue. The process of the National Dialogue has been kick started with the foundational activities underway. The main national conference is planned for October 2018.

Alongside the calls for a national dialogue, parliamentary political parties have albeit at a slow pace taken interest in the interparty cooperation and dialogue under the Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD). The interest is evidenced by the committed participation of the political parties in: the review and ratification of the rules of engagement (Memorandum of Understanding) for the platform (for the first time since inception of the IPOD MoU was signed off by the party principals – including that of the ruling party who is also the Head of State), as well as the intense process of negotiating a realistic and shared agenda for the platform for the current legislature period, among others. 

Over the eighteen months following the general election, fractures - especially within the opposition political parties continued to deepen – unchecked due to lack of, weak or non-functional conflict management structures/mechanisms within the parties.  The tensions and conflicts to an extent eroded the gains which had been made in party cohesion pre the highly contested 2016 election, and provided fertile ground for further entrenchment of the already dominant ruling party, NRM. More still the intra party conflicts translated into a slow pace of activities and engagement at the interparty dialogue table for processes such as the review of the IPOD MoU as well as negotiation and consensus around the IPOD agenda, among others.

There has been notable poor performance of opposition political parties in national political processes such as by-elections. Out of the eighteen by-elections conducted since the general elections, only one was won by an opposition party (Democratic Party) while the NRM and independents on the other hand won 15 and 2 constituencies each. This has been largely attributed to the intraparty conflicts which led to failed efforts to field strong joint opposition candidates, and contested party primaries from which dissatisfied candidates later contested as independents.

There continues to be an evident threat to the existence and relevance of political parties through the rapid growth of the independents movement in parliament as well as civic activism.  The increasing number of independents contesting for elective positions as well as mass support for causes championed by individuals rather than political parties raises numerous questions around capacity of political parties to effectively organise, engage and present relevant agenda to the electorate. While the argument that many of the independents are in fact specific party leaning, questions around the strength on intraparty democracy, responsiveness of political parties to the aspirations of citizens, among others are very evident.

There is a renewed call by the various stakeholders including the Speaker of the Parliament of Uganda, for comprehensive electoral as well as general constitutional reforms through a consultative and inclusive process. Again, the afro barometer report 2017 reported that 96% of its respondents support reforms to improve Parliament and elections. 
While there was initial hope that government would deliver on its promise to name a constitutional review commission to conduct a consultative comprehensive review of the constitution, this hope has to a large extent been shattered by the tabling of the controversial private member’s bill to amend article 102 (b) –seeking to among others lift the presidential age limit cap (in September 2017); and the government bill to amend Article 26(2) (b) (i) of the Constitution – to provide for compulsory land acquisition by government (July 2017). The two controversial constitutional amendment proposals have put Parliament in the spot light and on test in relation to among others: - the extent to which parliamentarians represent the aspirations of the electorate, the independence of parliament – following the invasion of parliament by the presidential security officers). Other questions raised include decision making processes in political parties and the extent to which they reflect on the parliamentary debate.

The narrowing of operating space for political actors – especially from the opposition; as well as civil society is evident. Freedoms of assembly, expression have been under attack. There has been excessive use of force to quell peaceful demonstrations, and brutal arrest of political as well as civil society actors. Some civil society organisations have been threatened with closure following the heated advocacy against the removal of the presidential age limit cap in the constitution.

2. Problem Analysis & Theory of Change Update 
There are dropping levels of trust and relations – intra and inter party -  from the highly divisive 2016 election, as well as the recent political developments around contentious constitutional reforms, involvement of security operatives and institutions in partisan politics, among others. There is a wave of intolerance and use of violence as exhibited in parliament during the debate around the constitutional amendment of article 102(b) and harassment as well as destruction of property of political actors who are believed or perceived to hold political views contrary to the perpetrators of the harassment.  While the Interparty dialogue platform - IPOD has over the years provided space for the political parties to mend broken relations as well as build and rebuild trust, the lack of/ weak/ non-functional conflict management structures across the parliamentary political parties has to a great extent eroded the gains hitherto made in relation to party cohesion as well as intraparty democracy under the platform. The intra party conflicts slow down the operations of the interparty dialogue (IPD) platform.

Capacity of political parties to present viable policy positions in line with the aspirations of the citizens leaves quite a lot of room for improvement. While some political parties may make an attempt at engaging the public policy processes and propose alternative policies, these remain on paper as the political parties are not able to effectively design and run advocacy campaigns around their policy positions.  This capacity gap coupled with the spill over of internal party conflict to the public perhaps explains the partial re alignment of the citizens with the platforms presented by some of the independents. 

The independents movement is steadily growing. Independent members of parliament are the second biggest block of representatives in the House.  Many of these representatives are aligned and inclined to political parties with representation in parliament. They, in most cases are election losers in party primaries. This state of affairs is perhaps indicative of – especially failed or mismanaged intra party elections because of the ill capacity of party election management officials in election management. These mismanaged electoral processes in turn breed conflict. Moreover, political parties do not have functional and effective conflict management mechanisms and strategies to deal with the disgruntled election losers. On the other hand, there are fast rising levels of civic activism through non-conventional individual actors as well as strategies for organising citizens around key specific issues of national or community specific interest. Some of these actions and campaigns have prompted questions around the relevance of institutions such as political parties in articulating citizen concerns. The ability by individuals to put up effective, spirited campaigns around issues pertinent to the citizens has enhanced interest and support for individuals who seek election outside the conventional political party organisations. 

The disconnect between political parties and the citizens is still existent. Whereas the shrinking space for political party operations may be part of the reasons that nurture this situation, political parties – especially those on the opposition have not fully exploited the available opportunities to set up and maintain functional party structures in the districts or regions across the country. NIMD previously supported some political parties to set up party offices in selected districts of their choice. There is evidence that these offices enhanced the visibility of the respective political parties in the districts.

The electoral environment is still heavily punctuated with contested election results at all levels. This is to a large extent due to an unlevel political playing field which is premised on a repressive legal framework relating to elections as well as other aspects which impact on governance and democracy. Laws such as the Public Order Management Act, the NGO Act among others contribute to the shrinking democratic space and uneven political playing field. While political parties and civil society actors have over the years engaged in electoral and broad constitutional reform advocacy, these efforts have been disjointed and often lay ground for competition between political and civic actors. The lack of a shared agenda and strategy for advocacy may be one of the reasons for the insignificant gains registered with the call for electoral and constitution reforms. 

There are also still numerous challenges to the participation of women and youth in political party as well as national political processes, and high monetisation of politics. 

The Theory of Change (ToC) is still valid as the initial conditions which informed the design of the programme interventions are still the same. The few changes in these conditions relate to the increased prevalence of independents in politics and the impact of this on parliament, political parties and multi-party democracy in general in Uganda. Consideration has also be given to the new rising wave of civic activism woven around and championed by individuals.
On the other hand, the ToC will be revised to cater for the priorities and interests under the prospective funding by the Democratic Governance Facility (DGF) Political actors are defined as the combined main target group of the Strategic Partnership: - (representatives of) political parties - politicians - (Members of) Parliament and its Committees - Other elected representatives at local levels. NIMD will primarily focus on political parties.