Zimbabwe Programme 2018 Since 2017; the leadership succession processes have intensified in the ruling party. Two clear factions have emerged. One faction is popularly known as the ‘Lacoste’ faction with the support of war veterans and securocrats is campaigning for Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa to succeed President Mugabe; while ‘G40’ with the support of the First Lady Grace Mugabe and the President Mugabe. While no clear candidate has emerged from this faction indications are that the First Lady is wishes to succeed her husband; although there is also speculation that current Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi would also be preferred by this faction. 

As the infighting has intensified; the Vice President Mnangagwa has been publicly humiliated by the President, First Lady and other leaders associated with the faction including Jonathan Moyo who has used the twitter platform to incessantly attack him. Moyo also gave a detailed presentation to the Politburo of Zanu PF accusing Vice President Mnangagwa of plotting remove President Mugabe. On the other hand; the War Veterans have also publicly attacked First Lady Grace Mugabe and Other leaders from the G40 faction. The public attacks on the First family is unprecedented. 

The First Lady and her faction are using their proximity to the levers of power and seem to be on the ascendency. They have since pushed for Special Congress in December this year where it appears that they will push for a candidate from their faction to the post of Vice President. It is highly likely that this will result in First Lady Grace Mugabe rising to this position placing her in prime position to take over as President. There is also speculation that the Special Congress could result in Vice President Mnangagwa losing his position. In a recent cabinet reshuffle his key allies lost their portfolios; while key figures from G40 were appointed to strategic Ministries. Therefore; the succession process in Zanu PF appears to be inching towards its conclusion. 

In the short term this is likely to force the leaders within the party to be internally focused and extremely cautious in taking part in programmes that will likely result in them losing political capital. Therefore; interparty processes are likely to be slower than normal. The upcoming elections in 2018 will also likely slow down programme implementation as the parties’ fight for political survival in elections where tensions soar. The saving grace however is that this programme is being done under the auspices of Parliament. This makes it possible to undertake cross party programming with minimum risk to impact the political capital of the participating leaders.

The opposition parties continue to be riddled by splits and infighting over leadership succession; though in the last year concrete steps have been undertaken by the parties to build alliances to build a united front in the upcoming elections. Clear progress has been recorded in this regard; although three alliances have emerged with a no clear path to a united front; and leaders continue to bicker on who should lead the coalition.

Given that the stakeholders will be internally focused in the run up to the elections; the SP programming will focus on programmes that support electoral activities such as the popularisation and capacity building on the Women’s Manifesto. Other activities that don’t require the participation of the political stakeholders such as ZI and parliamentary staff activities will be undertaken in the 1st and 2nd quarter when the political stakeholders are still focused on their parties and elections. After the elections; there will be capacity building of the new Parliamentarians and other activities that involves the political stakeholders.

2. Problem Analysis & Theory of Change Update (max 2 pages)

Political system 
Zimbabwe has been dominated by one party since independence in 1981, except during the period of the 2009 – 2013 Government of National Unity (GNU) when power was shared between Zanu PF and the two MDCs, with the country driven by a politics of consultation and consensus building that resulted from the SADC mandated dialogue. Following the July 31, 2013 elections, Zanu PF won a two-thirds majority in Parliament. The new dispensation has returned the country to polarisation between the ruling party and its supporters on one hand and the opposition and the civil society groups pushing for democratisation. 

The country holds regular elections; which however, have been contested on the grounds of rigging and manipulation by the state machinery amidst incidents of intimidation and electoral violence. Calls for electoral reforms remain unanswered. The next elections are scheduled for 2018 using the new Biometric Voter Registration system (BVR).

The country has a new constitution adopted in 2013 after a consensus driven national process and an overwhelming yes majority in the referendum. This new constitution and other reforms brought to bear under the unity government such as independent Commissions have given rise to opportunities for engagement and advocacy for democratic reforms. It includes a progressive bill of rights and advances women’s rights, including specific clauses on women political participation. 

The Zanu PF government seems determined that reforms must be undertaken on its own terms as it remains pre-occupied with power retention and is cautious not to help the opposition to recover. Parliament seems much more open to facilitate reforms and continues to work with stakeholders in civil society and international partners to train staff and members of parliament to strengthen their legislative making and oversight roles. This creates the opportunity and space for advocacy. Parliament also has a mandate to carry out public consultations on key bills. Parliament has been very open to local and international partners to support these public consultations. 

Political actor 
Currently, Zanu PF has well over a two-thirds majority in Parliament. The party has increased its representation in Parliament following the decision by the opposition to boycott all by-elections including those that arose as a result of the recall of 21 parliamentarians from the august house after a split of the MDC T. Despite its dominance in Parliament, the party continues to be divided over its internal leadership succession processes. Since its Congress in December 2014 which was envisaged to end the internal succession battles; it appears that the succession battles have intensified as the party is increasingly concerned about the President’s advanced age and health. 

What makes the Zanu PF internal battles dangerous for the country is that Zanu PF has a symbiotic relationship with the country’s security sector. The conflation of roles from parliament, political party and government often poses a challenge, especially for Zanu PF. Meanwhile, the opposition has severely weakened through splits and fragmentation over party leadership renewal. 

The parties in Parliament are informally engaged in a platform called the Zimbabwe Political Parties Dialogue (ZPPD), where they engage national issues such as ending political violence; economic recovery; implementing the national constitution and increasing the participation of women in political processes. This platform represents potentially a much more amenable opportunity for engagement than parliamentary sessions where parties are concerned with points scoring. There is growing recognition, as demonstrated by engagement through the ZPPD and Parliamentary Committees, that parliament and political parties are inherently connected and one cannot function without the other. Parliamentary committees also present a scope for cooperation.  Recently the political parties represented in Parliament collectively worked with Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) on a code of conduct for political parties.

Political culture 
Levels of trust among the political players remain low despite the period 2009 to 2013 under the GNU which went a long way to reduce the levels of mistrust with the parties working jointly with civil society to produce a new constitution, working together in (Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC)  and forming the Zimbabwe Political Parties Dialogue. This experience creates the opportunities for openness to engagement. While the opposition have always had a positive working relationship with the civil society, Zanu PF has to a large extent remained highly untrusting of them; believing they are there to push the agenda of the opposition and imperialists. The constitution making process provided a platform and opened new opportunities for engagement between political actors and CSOs.

Inclusiveness & gender equality 
Before the new constitution, the representation of women in Parliament had never risen beyond 16%. The new constitution, with a new provision of 60 seats awarded on proportional representation, has ensured 34% women representation in Parliament. In political parties and other key institutions such as Cabinet and independent commissions women representation remains below 25%. These figures remain below the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Protocol (2008) goal of 50/50 representation across all sectors by 2020. Women from across the parties and in Parliament through the Women’s caucus have agreed to work together on strategies to extend the constitutional provision beyond 2023 and also to work on joint strategies to increase women’s participation in key decision-making processes. Opportunities exist in the form of lobbying and advocacy at party level for the implementation of voluntary party quotas by Zanu PF and MDC-T, which have thus far, have not been systematically applied. Under this project’s support, the Zimbabwe Women’s Parliamentary Caucus (ZWPC), a cross-party platform has worked on a women’s manifesto aimed at increasing the number of women members of parliament.

The theory of change (ToC) remains valid.  However, there have been no activities and none are planned under the culture section and would amend the ToC to remove the section on culture.

3. Programme outlook (max 4 pages)
o Political system
Zimbabwe remains highly polarised with the main political parties not cooperating on important national issues. As a result; key national programmes such as the country’s economic recovery programme Zim-Asset continue to face challenges as there is no consensus among the political leaders. Consensus among political leaders would result in a unified message to the international community which would result adequate investment to support the programme. 

Previously, consensus led processes have led to clear successes such as the making of a new constitution through the cooperation of the parties resulting in a constitution that was received over 95% support in a referendum in 2013. Similarly; cooperation by the parties led to a period of sustained peace as the parties worked through the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) to monitor the implementation of the Global Political Agreement signed by the parties in 2008. The cornerstone of this programme was peacebuilding and conflict resolution.

The programme will work with the political parties in Parliament to foster the formalisation of the interparty dialogue platform to enable it to effectively facilitate the cooperation of the political parties in resolving national issues. This will be done through continuous dialogue on national issues that the parties have chosen. Owing to the upcoming elections in 2018; the political parties have prioritised joint engagement with Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission(ZEC) on issues that will enhance the electoral environment resulting in elections results that are accepted by all the parties. The parties hope to make joint submissions on key issues relating elections such as the political parties code of conduct; voter registration, voter education, capacity building work of the national and provincial liaison committees and election observation/monitoring. 

Consensus among the parties will enhance the chances of proposed changes being accepted and implemented by ZEC. In addition; where consensus is reached; the proposed changes can efficiently be implemented through Parliament where all the parties are represented.

Secondly, the first NPRC Bill was withdrawn in 2016. A new Bill has been brought back to Parliament and Public Consultations were undertaken in March 2017. This programme supported the public consultations and learning visits to Kenya and South Africa for the committees responsible for the oversight of the NPRC’s work.

The programme will support the advocacy and awareness raising activities to enhance the acceptability of the NPRC Act once it comes into effect. The consensus building platform of the parties will be also be used enhance the acceptability of the Act by the key stakeholders.

o Political actor 
To enhance the skills on procedures on public engagement; the programme will support the training and capacity building of the following categories:
a) Orientation and training for the new Parliamentarians after the 2018 elections on their roles; Parliament procedures, etc
b) Capacity building training for Parliament staff on M and E to enhance their ability to measure the results and impact of public engagement activities
c) Peer to peer learning for senior Parliamentary staff on best practice on stills and procedures for public engagements and consultations.
d) Training for ZI staff on the key areas of financial management and M and E to increase ZI’s capability to build lobby and advocacy capacity of political and civil society actors.

o Political culture

o Gender & Diversity
The representation of women in political parties and Parliament remains extremely low in Zimbabwe. The programme will support programmes aimed at increasing the participation and representation of women in political parties and Parliament. To achieve this the programme will support Women MPs and Women in national leadership of parties in Parliament to develop joint/cross party lobby and advocacy strategies to enhance representation of women in 2018 elections and within their political parties. In this regard the following activities will be undertaken:

a) Women’s Manifesto
Having supported the development of a women’s manifesto in 2017, the programme will support the popularisation and capacity building training for women candidates using the manifesto. This will hopefully result in increased number of women that get elected into the next Parliament while raising the awareness of the parties on the need to increase
b) Orientation of new Women MPs
To increase the effectiveness of the newly elected women MPs; the programme will support their capacity building training.
c) Strategic Planning
The programme will support the development of the Strategic planning process for the Women’s caucus for the 9th Parliament to help clearly outline their strategies and priorities.
d) Lobby and Advocacy on Identified Priorities
The programme will support the lobby and advocacy programmes of the leaders of the political parties’ wings and the women’s caucus on identified priorities such as the 2023 clause in the constitution. ICT training will be given to the women to enhance their lobby and advocacy skills. Political actors are defined as the combined main target group of the Strategic Partnership: - (representatives of) political parties - politicians - (Members of) Parliament and its Committees - Other elected representatives at local levels. NIMD will primarily focus on political parties.