African Transformation Index 2 In 2018, we secured the necessary funding to design, upgrade and develop an upgraded


 ATI - the ATI 2. This new product will be based on feedback from our key players and is planned to be launched in 2020. We have engaged a data scientist and a senior economist to support the development of ATI 2. Work will commence in February 2019. During the first quarter, the main consultant for providing technical support for ATI2 was procured and he has started work. A concept note on ATI2 setting up the conceptual approach and methodology has been prepared in addition to a long list of possible indicators to be reviewed and revised at a stakeholders’ workshop, which is to be held in the next quarter. A staff was also assigned as an internal project manager to ensure that the ATI is delivered in a co-ordinated and timely manner. During Q2 a draft concept note was finalized. Specifically, the concept note includes new policy variables that have been introduced in response to feedback of ATI1. The proposed approach contained in the concept note was the subject of a workshop of stakeholders held on July 18. Logistical preparations such as defining the list of workshop participants, setting the agenda and organising the venue started in the same period. The team further revised the ATR2 database to extend the time period covered in the index (1998-2017) and the number of countries covered. The majority of the technical work was undertaken by a consultant with extensive experiences in statistical computing, who was also engaged in the development of ATI 1. In Q3, the team finalized the medium-list of potential indicators to be included in the final Index. Following this, ACET organised an ATI stakeholder validation workshop in Accra on 18th of July for comments from participating specialists and policy makers. Comments were guided by the four pillars of the ATI: - Overall environment for growth and transformation - Policies for Skills and Technology Transformation - Support for Agricultural Transformation - Policies for Industrial Transformation The workshop examined the theoretical robustness of the index and the medium list of indicators. Two additional pillars on Domestic resource mobilization and Infrastructure were included resulting from feedback from the workshop In q4, a concept note on the ATI was developed, internally reviewed and then sent out to a number of external reviewers. The reviewers’ comments were received and incorporated into the index. Additionally, the technical advisor visited the reviewers in the last week of November in London, New York and the World Bank in Washington DC for further consultations. Following this visit, the writing process of the ATI report has begun. Management has decided that a 10-page summary of the ATI with key messages and charts should be prepared and launched at the side lines of the AU-STC meetings in Accra in March 2020. The full 90-page report will be launched at the ATF in Nairobi in June 2020. The task manager for ATI presented a paper during the Annual Conference of the Global Research Consortium on Economic Structural Transformation (GReCEST), held in Beijing 7th-8th November 2019. The paper was entitled “Tracking Africa’s Transformation: Growth with Depth” and focussed on an overview of ATI-1, its strengths and shortcomings and the theory of change underlying the revised index. The presentation generated a lot of interest judging from the number of questions and comments, all of which were positive. Some of the comments were as follows: • The index can be more relevant for Africa than the Doing Business Index, which seems to be what most African leaders are focussed on. • The index can be a powerful tool for advocacy. • It will be interesting to see how the rankings change with change of weights. • No index will be perfect; what is important is to show a strong association between the indicators and structural transformation. • ACET should consider environmental and social variables in a future index. The following achievements were made in Q1 2020: • The ATI was updated and re-compiled based on feedback received from external reviewers. • A briefing note and PowerPoint presentation on gender equality and economic transformation in Africa was made to the Transformation Leadership Panel meeting held at Addis Ababa, February 27-28, 2020. • Writing of sections of the ATI report commenced. Looking forward, we will upgrade the gender equality index, recompile the ATI scores and complete the draft ATI report by end of May 2020. We also anticipate completing the internal and external reviews by close of the next quarter.

In Q2 2020 we commenced data gathering for the new ATI variables.  Work has begun on the draft report (front end and technical sections completed) with the remaining sections to be completed after the recompilation of the index. Following this, the draft report will be subjected to both internal and external review, and an online peer-review workshop. 

In Q3 2020 The ATI team continued to upgrade the index to reflect the period 2000 to 2020 using the agreed set of indicators. ATI is scheduled for release in June as part of the online ATF series.

In Q4, the project team replicated the previous ATI version and updated the data to reflect the period from 2000 – 2018. This was a significant step that was necessary to validate the source code and ensure that the datasets were robust. The data was presented to ACET management for validation and approved to be sent for external review. Following this, the team approached external reviewers in the World Bank, UNDP and OECD to discuss the review process for the datasets.

In Q1, UNDP completed a review of the ATI data and codes and communicated feedback to the ACET team. Preparations are underway for another review with OECD. Also, the team has submitted terms of references (TORs) to management for their approval and validation for the selection of countries to be profiled in the ATI as well as for temporary recruitment of country representatives/ researchers to assist on the country profiles.

For Q2 2021, the ATI team undertook a sensitivity analysis to examine the stability of the results and updated the dataset (now including 33 countries against 32 previously, and running from 1999 to 2019 against 1999-2018), methodology and computation codes of the ATI. An outline for the report has been developed, after which a literature review on specific themes of economic transformation and sensitivity analysis as part of the ongoing drafting of the ATI 2021 Report was undertaken. Furthermore, the team produced 12 ATI Profiles for the 2021 ATI Report, profiling is ongoing with various drafts reviewed, two finalized (this involved recruitment and backstopping 10 country consultants who are producing ATI Background Notes and Summaries, and a seminar with all of them). 

Finally, the team developed and submitted two research proposals:
(1) A proposal for a small research grants window of the STEG project which will deep-dive on ATI results (still pending selection decision). 
(2) A proposal in response to JICA RFP to undertake a study focused on economic transformation in Africa, which will draw heavily on ATI results (ACET selected and invited for contract negotiation).


Q3 2021
Peer review of codes: In September 2021, statisticians from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) completed an external review of the ATI computation codes.  This followed an initial review undertaken by experts of United Nations Development Programme- Human Development Office (UNDP-HDO).
ATI report: The ATI report will comprise of four (4) substantive chapters:
1.	First is an introductory chapter which justifies the case for Growth-with-Depth
2.	The second chapter reports and analyzes the ATI results
3.	Third is a chapter on the country case studies
4.	 Chapter four will draw lessons and findings from the first three chapters.

First drafts of the first two (2) chapters have been completed. Both have been internally reviewed and current being edited for external review in November 2021.

Preparations for developing the third chapter is progressing well. Twelve country case studies have been concluded and the respective outputs produced. For each case study the products include 12-15 pages of 'Background Note' and 2-3 pages of 'Summary' of analytical findings and policy implications. A synthesis to serve as introduction to this chapter is being prepared. This chapter shall be completed by mid-November 2021, after which it will be subjected to external peer review. Besides their summary presentation in this chapter of the ATI report, the country 'Background Notes" will be posted online at the time of public launch of the ATI report. 

The fourth chapter is due for completion by end-November 2021.  This chapter will focus on future trajectories to promote economic transformation in Africa.

Q4 2021
In Q4, the ATI team concluded the data processing and analysis phase of the project. Two draft chapters (1 and 2) of the ATI Report were also finalized.

ATI Launch: The public launch of the ATI is expected to take place in 2022. Prior to the launch, we will commence the external review and editorial of the fully compiled report. ATI 2 will expand the DEPTH framework by developing specific indices for transformation pathways such as overall environment for growth and transformation, skills and technology transformation among others. In the second quarter of 2019, a draft concept note (CN) on the ATI was prepared detailing the key concepts and improvements that ATI2 will make over ATI1. The CN details new variables that have been introduced in response to critiques of ATI1. The proposed approach contained in the CN will be the subject of a workshop of stakeholders which will be held on July 18. Logistical preparations such as defining the list of workshop participants, the agenda and choice of venue started in the same period. The team further revised the ATR2 database to reflect a longer time period (1998-2017) than ATI-1 and to increase the coverage of countries.