Protecting civilians from harm: How humanitarians can encourage armed actors to comply with norms Protection has been systematically underfunded as an area of humanitarian action. One of the reasons for this is that humanitarian organizations have found it difficult to demonstrate the impact of their interventions. One problem is that the theories of change - that is, descriptions how activities lead to impact in a particular context - are often not made explicit. Achieving protection is a complex social change process. Rigid tools like classical log-frames are not well suited to planning and monitoring interventions in conflict contexts. The lack of more elaborate theories of change does not only make it harder to demonstrate the impact of protection interventions. It can also have negative effects on the design of protection interventions as it is harder to check assumptions, trace preconditions, and locate activities within a broader chain of results.

The research project focuses on a particular type of protection intervention, namely efforts to encourage armed actors to comply with norms, referred to as restraint. The research starts by analysing and reconstructing the theories of change on which restraint activities are built. The research project then compares these theories of change with the perceptions of armed actors on what influences their behaviour towards civilians. It also establishes to what extent armed actors, protection actors, and conflict-affected communities perceive protection interventions as effective. The research will focus on Iraq. Project partner, the Institute of Regional and International Studies at the American University of Iraq, sought out the views of state security forces and non-state armed groups in Iraq. The research team also cross-checked with affected communities what they believe worked and what didn’t. Internal conflict has been a key development challenge for Iraq over the past decade and more. In this context, activities helping to ensure a better protection of civilians can make a critical contribution to help prevent the country from slipping back into conflict. The proposed research project will help develop or refine theories of change for preventive protection activities (i.e. activities that seek to encourage armed actors not to commit protection violations). This is expected to improve protection programs in Iraq as the theories of change will enable protection actors to better plan their activities. The research will also analyse the motivations and perceptions of armed actors. With this information, protection actors will be able to design programs that better fit the realities on the ground

First, the reconstruction and development of theories of change is expected to make a direct contribution to how humanitarian organizations plan and implement protection interventions. Second, it will also contribute to the knowledge about evaluating impact of protection activities, an area where little research exists so far. Third, by focusing on Iraq, the project aims to inform the conceptual approach of protection research, moving away from only focusing on direct deaths and injuries, to also account for indirect mortality and injury caused by attacks on hospitals and other infrastructure. Research and development activity contributing to the UK’s strategy to address key development challenges.