Assist the UN-led mediation process to bring an end to the conflict in Yemen Project: Assist the UN-led mediation process to bring an end to the conflict in Yemen Narrative progress overview on activities September 16 - December 31, 2016 The following presents a narrative progress overview on activities contributing toward Result 2.1 of the project ‘Assist the UN-led mediation process to bring an end to the conflict in Yemen’ over the period September 16 – December 31st. Over the course of this period, funding provided by the MFA Netherlands was not used toward the completion of activities. All funding during this period was derived from a grant provided by another donor, which ran until December 31st, 2016. Result: 2.1 From July 2016 onwards, the views of southern leaders are fed into Track 1 peacemaking in order to enhance the official process. Activities contributing to result 2.1: Activity: Mapping In order to reach an improved understanding of the various grievances, interests and concerns of different southern groups the EIP conducted a mapping exercise. The mapping, constituting a continuous process, has been carried out throughout 2016 with support from the EIP'S Yemen Political Advisor, local expertise, Yemen experts, and the Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen. Although a formal publication of findings has not yet been produced, insight gained from Yemen experts has informed the EIP’s choice of facilitated dialogue participants and topics of focus during meetings and facilitated dialogues. The EIP will use outputs from strategic dialogues and consultations with Yemenis to build a UN-OSE oriented report, that will be shared with the UN and donor governments at the end of the project period. This activity has also entailed building a network of contacts with other agencies engaged in Yemen. The EIP has maintained contact with organisations who retain active involvement in Yemen. Activity: Dialogues with southern leaders Strategic dialogues: The strategic dialogues are part of the EIP’s efforts to de-escalate tensions in the south, and linking the south to the national peace process. They gather influential southern representatives to discuss key thematic issues of concern to southerners, including the official peace process and its relation to the South, engagement with the international community as well as local and regional challenges. Two strategic dialogues were organized for Beirut and Salalah, Oman, in December (9-10 & 13-14), to which a broad range of southern stakeholders were invited. The dialogues, the first of series of gatherings, provided an environment in which Yemeni participants were encouraged to partake in frank discussions on the political, social and economic grievances of the south, and to identify issues and priorities which could be fed into the official peace process. Attempts were also made to ascertain what architecture would be necessary for the south to engage in the peace process and eventually a constitutional drafting process with the north of the country. The dialogues also looked at southern relations with the international community as well as local and regional relationships which might affect their participation in the longer-term reconciliation process within Yemen. The UN OSE sent a representative to the meeting in Beirut to present on the UN-led process, answer questions posed by Yemeni participants as well as take into consideration to concerns to participants and feed them back to the UN. Logistics in and out of southern Yemen represented a major challenge. A number of participants had flights out of Aden cancelled at short notice, while others opted to take the land route out of Yemen to Muscat, an arduous 2-3 day drive. In an effort to meet with as many of the stakeholders as possible, the EIP held one dialogue in Beirut and then travelled to Salalah, Oman, to hold the second one. Specifically, the dialogues examined the following issues in some detail: - The UN-led peace process – the past, present and future including challenges, constraints and potential input from the south. The session was led by a member of the team of the UN Special Envoy to Yemen. - Update and overview of southern Yemen: summary of key concerns, grievances and goals of the people of the south. This session was led by a leader of a youth movement in the south. - Engagement of and with the international community – to what end. The session was facilitated by EIP. - Identify and discuss local and regional challenges, including foreign intervention and the short to medium term impact this might have on the search for security and stability. This session was facilitated by EIP. - How might the political aspirations of the south be integrated into the peace process and any eventual the constitutional drafting process. This session was facilitated by EIP. - Finally, a list of issues of common concern were noted. Findings 1) List of grievances The grievances expressed by participants were both long-term (predating the conflict) and current (effects of the conflict). Participants argued that since unification the north has enjoyed disproportionate access to resources in the south; has redrawn geographical boundaries to benefit the north; and has suppressed southern aspirations for greater autonomy and control over financial and human capital. The war has exacerbated grievances, with freedom of expression and movement curtailed; detention and torture of southern activists; access to resources (including oil and minerals) reduced; a loss of control of ports and airports; a deterioration in essential services, including education; salaries not being paid; inflation; and, food and water shortages. Additionally, there has been an expansion of armed militia and Salafist groups and an accompanying spread of extremism and proliferation of small arms. These factors have fomented a zone of instability, turmoil, socio-economic depravation, and, increased militarisation and sectarianism in the south. 2) Issues associated with the International Community Participants felt that the international community have ignored the south and there is no access to the international community and channel for southern voices to be heard – they have been marginalised from the peace process. The south should be treated as a unique political entity, rather than an extension of the north, they argued. Focus has been on the Houthi/Saleh-Hadi/KSA conflict, rather than on the southern issue. There is disappointment in the international community’s unwillingness to stem the involvement of external forces in the conflict, the spread of extremist groups, and the proliferation of weapons. Participants noted that leaders of the Southern Movement made a mistake in not participating in the National Dialogue, which has damaged the south’s ability to represent its diverse interests as well as communicate with the UN, EU, and other international bodies. 3) Regional Challenges Some participants classified the conflict as a proxy war between Iran and Sadia Arabia. Others believed the role of Iran has been exaggerated. All agreed that regional forces are impacting the conflict and that southerners have been drawn into a regional confrontation that was not of their making. UAE forces in Aden are providing security in the absence of a unified southern army, however instability persists, fuelled by money and weapons provided by regional actors, especially Saudi Arabia. This is leading to the entrenchment of Salafism and Wahhabism and the growth of Al Qaeda and Daesh. Participants fear the destructive impact of these groups on the south and desire their removal. Participants had little faith in regional processes, such as the GCC Initiative, arguing that it is not a neutral platform for southern concerns to be considered. 4) Incorporation of southern aspirations in the peace process All participants supported conflict resolution through a peace process, stressing that the UN process cannot continue to ignore southern concerns and aspirations. The south, in all its diversity, must be recognised and represented at the international level. Choosing representatives who can legitimately represent the south will prove a major challenge. Some participants emphasised the importance of empowering and nominating youth representatives, while others opined that historical leaders should take a frontal role. All agreed on the importance of selecting individuals from a variety of backgrounds who have an innate understanding of the south and are popular in their communities. It was agreed that the south needs to speak with one voice, in unison, and clearly present its common concerns and aspirations, in order for the international community to consider them in the peace process. A list of names of recommended southern representatives was provided by participants. This list will be expanded upon and used as a guidance, but has not been agreed upon by all parties. Identifying consensual southern leaders will be a challenging topic that will require compromise and further attention at future meetings. During the course of the dialogues, an attempt was made to find points of common concern, where there was consensus and where it might be possible to begin a dialogue amongst the different parties. The following notes agreed aspirations and concerns: • Firstly, southerners want a return of security and stability and an end to the conflict and welcome intervention if it leads to stability. • They require international guarantees, that southern rights would not be violated, if an agreement is made with the north. • They disagree on the UN approach to the peace process of first solving the Yemen conflict and then reverting to the south. The UN must include southern participants in the peace process - they need to be part of the solution. • Any national agreement should be comprehensive, inclusive and not generate new conflict in other areas of the country. • Diversity in the south is the order of the day and has led to a major fracturing of the southern political and security positions. • Unity is not an option – they are prepared to consider a two state federal system, but will not accept six state construct (they would consider UN compromise between independence and unity). • They reserve the right to self-determination if and when they decide to act on it. • They reject division of the south and a potential separation of Hadramout. • They do not agree or adhere to the governance put forward by the Hadi government. • They lack adequate tools and channels to effectively communicate messages to the international community. • They support rehabilitation, investment in education and the creation of employment (this might dampen desire to seek right to self-determination). • They require support in training next generation of leaders. A delay in receiving funding for this project prevented the EIP from holding follow-up strategic dialogues in 2016. Dialogues to influence the Track 1 process Subsequent dialogues will seek to ensure that the UN-led process creates much needed space for the concerns and aspirations of the south to be heard and for political actors in the south to broaden and increase their engagement with the international community, which has been very limited to date. Involving Southern leaders in the Track 1 process will contribute to a more comprehensive mediation process. The presence of a UN observer will be encouraged at these meetings. In 2017 the EIP plans hold face to face meetings between key southern representatives and members of the UN OSE team. Other work contributing to Result 2.1: 1. Collaboration with UN OSE Yemen and international stakeholders The EIP has met with the UN OSE Yemen on a regular basis. These meetings are part of a continuous process of feeding southern opinions and opportunities for curbing the destabilisation garnered through the strategic dialogues to the UN-led mediation process. The EIP met the OSE in New York and in Amman, Jordan, as well as through teleconference, on multiple occasions. They have provided updates on the official peace talks as well as input on the EIP’s work on the South. In February, the UN also noted that UN flights to Aden are due to resume within a month, thus granting the EIP another means of access to the south. The UN also offered to provide a list of southern Yemenis who are well qualified to work with the EIP as field staff, liaising with southern representatives and working to resolve logistical challenges. The UN OSE was present at the strategic dialogue sessions, both presenting on the UN’s role in the peace process and listening to the opinions and concerns posed by Southern representatives. This allowed the UN unique access to southern leaders from regions where the UN has very limited access, thus providing a mechanism for beginning the process of channelling Southern political views into Yemen peace process. The EIP will remain in contact with the UN OSE on a continuous basis to receive advanced warning in order to mitigate the risk of last-minute cancellation or postponement of activities and put in place alternative plans. All meetings held will aim to limit reliance on air transport and take place in areas most accessible to Yemenis (Salalah, Oman has been chosen for this purpose). The EIP’s Yemen-based staff will be able to coordinate locally, communicate with participants and provide early warning of any changes in the conflict. The EIP has met with The Delegation of the European Union to Yemen in Brussels to discuss ways in which the EIP and the EU can work together or complement each other’s work. The EIP met with representatives of the MFA Netherlands in December to discuss the workshops, progress made and next steps to be taken in 2017. The EIP has met with a representative of the Egyptian Embassy in Brussels to explore opportunities to work with Egypt on the South of Yemen. Egypt is one of only a few countries to retain an embassy in Aden. 2. Building a network in the South The EIP has built a rapport with experts on the south of Yemen and maintains contact with organisations working in-country. Liaison with southern experts will continue to ensure accurate representation of southerners at facilitated dialogues and to maintain an informed understanding of the south of Yemen. These meetings are part of a continuous process of triangulating reports on southern dynamics and players. The EIP has focussed on building in-country contacts and networks in order to improve access to all conflict parties. This includes hiring up to two full-time staff based in Yemen. The EIP has also attempted to obtain Yemen entry visas for staff to broaden options for engagements. Additionally, in the event that future meetings with southern leaders are prevented due to similar challenges, the EIP has set-up contingency plans to allow for the continuation of planned activities. This includes holding meetings through a virtual platform, using technology to gather the views of southerners and working more closely with partner organisations with a ground presence. To date, the EIP has hired one new staff member based in Yemen. The EIP has also hired a Yemen expert, based in the US. Both have begun assisting the EIP with preparations (including suggesting participants, communication with participants and providing updates on the situation in Yemen) for our first strategic dialogue of 2017 as well as conduct consultations with Yemenis in country and begin work on a report that will combine the results of the EIP’s dialogues and consultations. The first dialogue this year will entail a women’s group, drawing influential southern women from across Yemen’s southern governorates and from diverse political backgrounds. The two-day dialogue will address the political, social and economic grievances of the south, their involvement and input into the official political and reconciliation processes and the architecture necessary for the south of Yemen to engage in an eventual constitutional drafting process with the north of the country. The dialogue will also take a close look at southern relations with the international community as well as local and regional relationships which might affect their participation in the longer-term reconciliation process within Yemen. The dialogue will produce joint recommendations and a vision paper for continued debate and for input into the official peace process.