Review of Existing Climate Change and Impact Modelling Programs Examen des programmes de modélisation de l'impact des changements climatiques The International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) have entered into a partnership to deliver the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). This seven year program, commencing in April 2012 will focus on increasing the resilience of the most vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three 'hot-spots', selected for their combination of significant Climate Change (CC) impacts in the biophysical environment and high risks due to a large number of poor people with limited capacity to adapt. The Program's geographical scope includes Africa and Asia, and the hot spots are semi-arid zones, mega-deltas and densely populated river basins, including glacier-fed systems. The Program's goal is to develop robust evidence to inform decision makers how to increase the resilience of vulnerable populations to climate variability and change in these hot spots. It will generate knowledge on conditions leading to vulnerability to climate change to a common range of potential climate scenarios and how to increase resilience and develop sustainable adaptation measures within and across the hot spots. Research within each 'hotspot' will be carried out by a consortium collaborating to link biophysical impacts to socioeconomic implications and potential adaptation mechanisms. The consortia will be advised by a group of global and regional experts and supported by a technical focal group on climate information. 

Achieving this requires access to high quality information and data on both current and potential future climate variability and change. It also demands the ability to understand and make the best use of this information while recognizing it limitations. This calls for the effective use of climate change information and data, including use of scenarios in researching, adaptation decision making and development practice by the CARIAA consortia. In order to ensure coherence and comparison between the research undertaken by the three different consortia and with other CC programs, it is necessary to use commonly accepted and globally relevant climate scenarios, shared methods and transparent approaches across the different research initiatives. This includes but is not limited to, the need to utilize common data sets, tools and climate projections.

Given the nature of climate science, the variety of different climate models and projections and the underlying level of uncertainty involved in this field, this is best achieved by establishing a central organization to perform the role of technical facilitator to the CARIAA program. The organisation will work with the consortia and advisory group to identify appropriate climate data, Global Climate Models and other globally and regionally appropriate scenarios. They will ensure communication between participating hotspot consortium members on a technical level including the exchange of common data sets, model inputs and outputs, and wherever possible, quality assure information and provide data storage/backup support.  

As the program is expected to build on existing initiatives and capacities both globally and regionally, the technical focal point will develop close links to the national and regional meteorological and hydrological agencies in the regions involved. The future climate scenarios identified as relevant will be used by planners and decision makers in a number of ways; the data output are not the end point. For example, planners deciding where to invest in an agricultural intensification scheme need to know the likelihood of increased frequency of dry spells or seasonal droughts, or conversely, the potential for flooding in the next 30 years. This cannot be determined by the climate data alone-it requires further processing or an additional model to provide predictions on the impact of climatic change. This will most likely be carried out by consortium partners, building on the large range of existing regional and watershed programs and models. The technical focal point may also develop and provide common and customized climate information products (for example inputs to crop productivity model), including uncertainty and reliability required by the consortia working on the three hot spots over the program's life.

Before discussions on the specific mandate of the technical focal point can continue, the CARIAA team needs to have a better sense of what is already available, in order to avoid a duplication of work that has already been done. Ce projet rassemblera les données existantes sur les programmes de modélisation de l'impact des changements climatiques, pour soutenir l'Initiative de recherche concertée sur l'adaptation en Afrique et en Asie (IRCAAA). 

L'IRCAAA est une initiative du CRDI et du Department for International Development (DFID) du Royaume-Uni qui vise à accroître la résilience des populations les plus vulnérables et de leurs moyens de subsistance dans trois zones cruciales - les régions semi-arides, les mégadeltas et les bassins hydrographiques à forte densité de population, dont ceux qui sont alimentés par l'eau des glaciers -, en Afrique et en Asie. Ces zones ont été choisies en raison de l'ampleur des effets des changements climatiques sur le milieu biophysique et de l'importance des risques présents compte tenu du grand nombre de personnes pauvres ayant une faible capacité d'adaptation. L'IRCAAA a pour but de procurer aux décideurs de solides données probantes qui inspireront des moyens d'accroître la résilience des populations vulnérables de ces zones à la variabilité du climat et aux changements climatiques. 

Pour atteindre les objectifs de l'IRCAAA, les chercheurs et les responsables des politiques ont besoin d'informations et de données de qualité sur la variabilité du climat et les changements climatiques, actuels et éventuels. Ils doivent aussi comprendre ces informations et les exploiter au mieux tout en étant conscients de leurs limites. Étant donné la nature de la science du climat, les différents modèles et projections climatiques, et l'incertitude sous-jacente dans ce domaine, il fut jugé que l'établissement d'un organisme central qui servirait de facilitateur technique à l'IRCAAA serait le meilleur moyen d'assurer la cohérence. Cet organisme collaborera avec les consortiums et le groupe consultatif pour déterminer les données climatiques, les modèles climatiques mondiaux et les autres scénarios mondiaux et régionaux qui conviennent. Il veillera aussi à une communication technique soutenue entre les membres des consortiums travaillant sur les différentes zones cruciales.

Avant d'engager des discussions sur la mission précise de ce centre de liaison technique, l'équipe de l'IRCAAA doit déterminer ce qui existe déjà, afin d'éviter le double emploi. Ce financement permettra à l'équipe d'effectuer cette analyse.