PROPHET v1 results

leaderboard/leaderboard.json

@@ -0,0 +1,706 @@
+[
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+  }
+]

leaderboard/leaderboard.md

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# PROPHET — leaderboard
+
+| Rank | Agent | N | Accuracy | ECE | Brier | Log-loss | Net Payoff | Cost USD | Pareto |
+|------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | baseline:oracle | 240 | 1.000 (1.000, 1.000) | 0.000 (0.000, 0.000) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 38684.7 (38031.9, 39342.8) | $0.0000 |  |
+| 2 | openrouter:anthropic_claude-opus-4.7 | 229 | 0.900 (0.860, 0.934) | 0.078 (0.042, 0.119) | 0.096 | 0.383 | 23686.2 (21176.3, 26055.2) | $1.3514 | ★ |
+| 3 | openrouter:google_gemini-3-flash-preview | 231 | 0.970 (0.944, 0.991) | 0.027 (0.008, 0.051) | 0.027 | 0.542 | 22907.7 (21527.7, 24106.9) | $0.2125 | ★ |
+| 4 | openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-v3.2 | 233 | 0.846 (0.798, 0.888) | 0.129 (0.088, 0.177) | 0.136 | 1.334 | 21907.7 (18017.9, 25709.7) | $0.0606 |  |
+| 5 | openrouter:anthropic_claude-haiku-4.5 | 230 | 0.935 (0.900, 0.965) | 0.043 (0.018, 0.080) | 0.060 | 0.267 | 21739.2 (19913.9, 23421.8) | $0.5373 |  |
+| 6 | openrouter:openai_gpt-5-mini | 232 | 0.871 (0.828, 0.914) | 0.123 (0.082, 0.168) | 0.128 | 1.186 | 21042.4 (18262.5, 23613.1) | $0.4998 |  |
+| 7 | openrouter:openai_gpt-5 | 146 | 0.931 (0.890, 0.966) | 0.065 (0.027, 0.109) | 0.069 | 0.327 | 18980.2 (16127.1, 21398.6) | $1.7993 | ★ |
+| 8 | openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-maverick | 232 | 0.853 (0.806, 0.897) | 0.122 (0.082, 0.169) | 0.129 | 1.783 | 18611.1 (15499.8, 21521.0) | $0.0780 |  |
+| 9 | openrouter:anthropic_claude-sonnet-4.6 | 230 | 0.870 (0.826, 0.913) | 0.093 (0.058, 0.139) | 0.115 | 0.427 | 17051.5 (14819.9, 19164.3) | $0.7962 |  |
+| 10 | openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 174 | 0.919 (0.879, 0.960) | 0.045 (0.020, 0.074) | 0.035 | 0.406 | 16840.6 (14830.9, 18698.3) | $3.2458 |  |
+| 11 | openrouter:qwen_qwen3-32b | 217 | 0.843 (0.793, 0.889) | 0.110 (0.068, 0.159) | 0.138 | 1.052 | 15371.7 (12853.1, 17822.0) | $0.0911 |  |
+| 12 | openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-flash-lite | 230 | 0.835 (0.787, 0.883) | 0.165 (0.117, 0.213) | 0.165 | 3.424 | 15310.6 (12910.0, 17588.5) | $0.0881 |  |
+| 13 | openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 118 | 0.898 (0.839, 0.949) | 0.067 (0.033, 0.109) | 0.051 | 0.750 | 14584.8 (12675.5, 16312.1) | $3.2458 |  |
+| 14 | openrouter:openai_gpt-5-nano | 215 | 0.819 (0.767, 0.870) | 0.154 (0.108, 0.207) | 0.167 | 1.591 | 13155.1 (11000.7, 15363.0) | $0.1505 |  |
+| 15 | openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-scout | 207 | 0.831 (0.778, 0.879) | 0.147 (0.104, 0.203) | 0.158 | 2.717 | 12242.5 (9783.6, 14494.5) | $0.0268 |  |
+| 16 | openrouter:openai_gpt-5.4-nano | 229 | 0.734 (0.677, 0.786) | 0.133 (0.097, 0.193) | 0.191 | 0.656 | 11366.2 (8738.0, 13888.6) | $0.0415 |  |
+| 17 | openrouter:openai_gpt-5 | 125 | 0.960 (0.920, 0.992) | 0.020 (0.002, 0.054) | 0.028 | 0.104 | 9177.4 (7777.4, 10533.4) | $1.7993 | ★ |
+| 18 | openrouter:qwen_qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking-2507 | 123 | 0.911 (0.862, 0.959) | 0.068 (0.022, 0.122) | 0.085 | 0.876 | 6773.2 (5248.9, 8192.2) | $0.4892 |  |
+| 19 | openrouter:moonshotai_kimi-k2-thinking | 69 | 1.000 (1.000, 1.000) | 0.004 (0.002, 0.006) | 0.000 | 0.004 | 2882.5 (2272.1, 3500.1) | $1.2527 | ★ |
+| 20 | openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-r1 | 55 | 1.000 (1.000, 1.000) | 0.008 (0.005, 0.011) | 0.000 | 0.008 | 1806.4 (1376.6, 2274.3) | $0.5623 |  |
+| 21 | baseline:random | 153 | 0.000 (0.000, 0.000) | 0.532 (0.485, 0.579) | 0.367 | 1.140 | -11604.2 (-13117.6, -10189.5) | $0.0000 |  |
+| 22 | baseline:always-take | 240 | 0.000 (0.000, 0.000) | 0.990 (0.990, 0.990) | 0.980 | 4.605 | -24369.8 (-25428.8, -23395.0) | $0.0000 |  |

leaderboard/leaderboard.tex

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+\begin{table}[t]
+\centering\small
+\caption{PROPHET headline leaderboard (95\% bootstrap CIs). $\star$ = Pareto-optimal on $(\ECE, \mathcal{P})$.}\label{tab:headline}
+\begin{tabular}{rlrrrrrr}
+\toprule
+\# & Agent & Acc. & ECE & Brier & Log-loss & Net payoff & Cost \$ \\
+\midrule
+1 & baseline:oracle & 1.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 0.000 & 38685 & 0.000 \\
+2 & openrouter:anthropic-claude-opus-4.7$\star$ & 0.900 & 0.078 & 0.096 & 0.383 & 23686 & 1.351 \\
+3 & openrouter:google-gemini-3-flash-preview$\star$ & 0.970 & 0.027 & 0.027 & 0.542 & 22908 & 0.212 \\
+4 & openrouter:deepseek-deepseek-v3.2 & 0.846 & 0.129 & 0.136 & 1.334 & 21908 & 0.061 \\
+5 & openrouter:anthropic-claude-haiku-4.5 & 0.935 & 0.043 & 0.060 & 0.267 & 21739 & 0.537 \\
+6 & openrouter:openai-gpt-5-mini & 0.871 & 0.123 & 0.128 & 1.186 & 21042 & 0.500 \\
+7 & openrouter:openai-gpt-5$\star$ & 0.931 & 0.065 & 0.069 & 0.327 & 18980 & 1.799 \\
+8 & openrouter:meta-llama-llama-4-maverick & 0.853 & 0.122 & 0.129 & 1.783 & 18611 & 0.078 \\
+9 & openrouter:anthropic-claude-sonnet-4.6 & 0.870 & 0.093 & 0.115 & 0.427 & 17051 & 0.796 \\
+10 & openrouter:google-gemini-3.1-pro-preview & 0.919 & 0.045 & 0.035 & 0.406 & 16841 & 3.246 \\
+11 & openrouter:qwen-qwen3-32b & 0.843 & 0.110 & 0.138 & 1.052 & 15372 & 0.091 \\
+12 & openrouter:google-gemini-3.1-flash-lite & 0.835 & 0.165 & 0.165 & 3.424 & 15311 & 0.088 \\
+13 & openrouter:google-gemini-3.1-pro-preview & 0.898 & 0.067 & 0.051 & 0.750 & 14585 & 3.246 \\
+14 & openrouter:openai-gpt-5-nano & 0.819 & 0.154 & 0.167 & 1.591 & 13155 & 0.150 \\
+15 & openrouter:meta-llama-llama-4-scout & 0.831 & 0.147 & 0.158 & 2.717 & 12242 & 0.027 \\
+16 & openrouter:openai-gpt-5.4-nano & 0.734 & 0.133 & 0.191 & 0.656 & 11366 & 0.042 \\
+17 & openrouter:openai-gpt-5$\star$ & 0.960 & 0.020 & 0.028 & 0.104 & 9177 & 1.799 \\
+18 & openrouter:qwen-qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking-2507 & 0.911 & 0.068 & 0.085 & 0.876 & 6773 & 0.489 \\
+19 & openrouter:moonshotai-kimi-k2-thinking$\star$ & 1.000 & 0.004 & 0.000 & 0.004 & 2883 & 1.253 \\
+20 & openrouter:deepseek-deepseek-r1 & 1.000 & 0.008 & 0.000 & 0.008 & 1806 & 0.562 \\
+21 & baseline:random & 0.000 & 0.532 & 0.367 & 1.140 & -11604 & 0.000 \\
+22 & baseline:always-take & 0.000 & 0.990 & 0.980 & 4.605 & -24370 & 0.000 \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+\end{table}

runs/1779030229-42df8dae-baseline:random/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779030229-42df8dae-baseline:random",
+  "agent": "baseline:random",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.1946718692779541,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.0,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 70,
+  "n_quote": 83,
+  "n_pass": 87,
+  "net_payoff": -18202.683457913008,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779030229-5350adfe-baseline:always-take/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779030229-5350adfe-baseline:always-take",
+  "agent": "baseline:always-take",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.22296786308288574,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.0,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 240,
+  "n_quote": 0,
+  "n_pass": 0,
+  "net_payoff": -24369.77105568318,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779030229-f353bd44-baseline:always-pass/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779030229-f353bd44-baseline:always-pass",
+  "agent": "baseline:always-pass",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.001355886459350586,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.0,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 0,
+  "n_quote": 0,
+  "n_pass": 240,
+  "net_payoff": -640.0,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779030230-2f2c4e1c-baseline:oracle/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779030230-2f2c4e1c-baseline:oracle",
+  "agent": "baseline:oracle",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.22322797775268555,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.0,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 0,
+  "n_quote": 240,
+  "n_pass": 0,
+  "net_payoff": 38684.70099800116,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031017-913a78a7-openrouter:openai_gpt-5.4-nano/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031017-913a78a7-openrouter:openai_gpt-5.4-nano",
+  "agent": "openrouter:openai/gpt-5.4-nano",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.300246000289917,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.04147775000000006,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 188,
+  "n_quote": 41,
+  "n_pass": 11,
+  "net_payoff": 11912.13591395611,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031182-5359e04e-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-flash-lite/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031182-5359e04e-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-flash-lite",
+  "agent": "openrouter:google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.3663187026977539,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.08811175000000002,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 230,
+  "n_quote": 0,
+  "n_pass": 10,
+  "net_payoff": 15976.330772748059,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031207-501be811-openrouter:google_gemini-3-flash-preview/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031207-501be811-openrouter:google_gemini-3-flash-preview",
+  "agent": "openrouter:google/gemini-3-flash-preview",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.4914700984954834,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.21247199999999988,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 224,
+  "n_quote": 7,
+  "n_pass": 9,
+  "net_payoff": 23800.16555097187,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031222-4b5be0b7-openrouter:anthropic_claude-haiku-4.5/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031222-4b5be0b7-openrouter:anthropic_claude-haiku-4.5",
+  "agent": "openrouter:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.4112730026245117,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.5373070000000001,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 202,
+  "n_quote": 28,
+  "n_pass": 10,
+  "net_payoff": 22684.337735832883,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031259-984de413-openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-scout/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031259-984de413-openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-scout",
+  "agent": "openrouter:meta-llama/llama-4-scout",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.11884880065917969,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.026841680000000003,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 180,
+  "n_quote": 27,
+  "n_pass": 33,
+  "net_payoff": 14194.205325560692,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031551-9ea1e8d8-openrouter:openai_gpt-5-mini/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031551-9ea1e8d8-openrouter:openai_gpt-5-mini",
+  "agent": "openrouter:openai/gpt-5-mini",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.29892802238464355,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.49983125000000017,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 142,
+  "n_quote": 90,
+  "n_pass": 8,
+  "net_payoff": 21768.03563076152,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031591-87df0f36-openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-v3.2/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031591-87df0f36-openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-v3.2",
+  "agent": "openrouter:deepseek/deepseek-v3.2",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.26867008209228516,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.06058584000000005,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 28,
+  "n_quote": 205,
+  "n_pass": 7,
+  "net_payoff": 22565.838724016594,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031630-b2dd53dc-openrouter:openai_gpt-5-nano/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031630-b2dd53dc-openrouter:openai_gpt-5-nano",
+  "agent": "openrouter:openai/gpt-5-nano",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.27536892890930176,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.15049425000000005,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 202,
+  "n_quote": 13,
+  "n_pass": 25,
+  "net_payoff": 14684.74126445537,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031741-5050459e-openrouter:qwen_qwen3-32b/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031741-5050459e-openrouter:qwen_qwen3-32b",
+  "agent": "openrouter:qwen/qwen3-32b",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.319547176361084,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.09105468000000001,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 166,
+  "n_quote": 51,
+  "n_pass": 23,
+  "net_payoff": 17000.987411286394,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031844-1a8d443a-openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-maverick/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031844-1a8d443a-openrouter:meta-llama_llama-4-maverick",
+  "agent": "openrouter:meta-llama/llama-4-maverick",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.32470703125,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.07799415000000004,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 154,
+  "n_quote": 78,
+  "n_pass": 8,
+  "net_payoff": 19252.88614929685,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779031986-4540a610-openrouter:anthropic_claude-opus-4.7/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779031986-4540a610-openrouter:anthropic_claude-opus-4.7",
+  "agent": "openrouter:anthropic/claude-opus-4.7",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.24138188362121582,
+  "total_cost_usd": 1.3514150000000007,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 103,
+  "n_quote": 126,
+  "n_pass": 11,
+  "net_payoff": 24823.973192681766,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032009-898f2de1-openrouter:anthropic_claude-sonnet-4.6/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032009-898f2de1-openrouter:anthropic_claude-sonnet-4.6",
+  "agent": "openrouter:anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.25345826148986816,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.7961609999999998,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 226,
+  "n_quote": 4,
+  "n_pass": 10,
+  "net_payoff": 17792.831617935713,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032218-f3ab8d42-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032218-f3ab8d42-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
+  "agent": "openrouter:google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.27360987663269043,
+  "total_cost_usd": 2.0098860000000007,
+  "n_tasks": 118,
+  "n_take": 11,
+  "n_quote": 107,
+  "n_pass": 0,
+  "net_payoff": 14584.776975873636,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032408-53e123d6-openrouter:openai_gpt-5/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032408-53e123d6-openrouter:openai_gpt-5",
+  "agent": "openrouter:openai/gpt-5",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.28566598892211914,
+  "total_cost_usd": 2.016878749999999,
+  "n_tasks": 146,
+  "n_take": 1,
+  "n_quote": 145,
+  "n_pass": 0,
+  "net_payoff": 18980.18810582691,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032847-7c6f3d36-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032847-7c6f3d36-openrouter:google_gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
+  "agent": "openrouter:google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.30417585372924805,
+  "total_cost_usd": 3.2457900000000004,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 18,
+  "n_quote": 156,
+  "n_pass": 66,
+  "net_payoff": 23228.40898053551,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032852-c7486f18-openrouter:openai_gpt-5/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032852-c7486f18-openrouter:openai_gpt-5",
+  "agent": "openrouter:openai/gpt-5",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.2364039421081543,
+  "total_cost_usd": 1.7992550000000003,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 0,
+  "n_quote": 125,
+  "n_pass": 115,
+  "net_payoff": 17620.563458340584,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779032955-3230ba19-openrouter:qwen_qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking-2507/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779032955-3230ba19-openrouter:qwen_qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking-2507",
+  "agent": "openrouter:qwen/qwen3-235b-a22b-thinking-2507",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.27317094802856445,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.4891515349999998,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 34,
+  "n_quote": 89,
+  "n_pass": 117,
+  "net_payoff": 13215.968496154954,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779033050-be7bbb76-openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-r1/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779033050-be7bbb76-openrouter:deepseek_deepseek-r1",
+  "agent": "openrouter:deepseek/deepseek-r1",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.2875950336456299,
+  "total_cost_usd": 0.5622513,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 0,
+  "n_quote": 55,
+  "n_pass": 185,
+  "net_payoff": 7882.598949742822,
+  "notes": ""
+}

runs/1779033168-8772fb5f-openrouter:moonshotai_kimi-k2-thinking/summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "run_id": "1779033168-8772fb5f-openrouter:moonshotai_kimi-k2-thinking",
+  "agent": "openrouter:moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking",
+  "cycle_seed": 42,
+  "market_seed": 42,
+  "wall_time_s": 0.25507116317749023,
+  "total_cost_usd": 1.2526762000000005,
+  "n_tasks": 240,
+  "n_take": 0,
+  "n_quote": 69,
+  "n_pass": 171,
+  "net_payoff": 10026.18218881101,
+  "notes": ""
+}