Document: WT/DS267/RW Page A-1 ANNEX A FIRST WRITTEN SUBMISSIONS OF PARTIES AND THIRD PARTIES Contents Page Annex A-1 Executive Summary of the First Written Submission of Brazil (Executive summary submitted on 24 November 2006)
Date: 24 November 2006
Document codes: WT/DS267/RW
Complainant: Brazil
Respondent: U.S.
Third parties: Argentina, Australia, Benin, Canada, Chad, China, Taiwan, EU, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, Paraguay, Venezuela, Japan, Thailand
Dispute stage: Mutually Agreed Solution
Agreements cited: Art. 3, 5, 6  Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM)Art. 3.3, 7.1, 8, 9.1, 10.1  AgricultureArt. III:4, XVI  GATT 1994

ANNEX A

FIRST WRITTEN SUBMISSIONS OF PARTIES
AND THIRD PARTIES

Contents Page
Annex A-1 Executive Summary of the First Written Submission of Brazil
(Executive summary submitted on 24 November 2006)
A-2
Annex A-2 Executive Summary of the First Written Submission of the
United States (Including Request for preliminary rulings) –
(Executive summary submitted on 22 December 2006)
A-9
Annex A-3 Third Party Submission of Argentina – 5 January 2007 A-18
Annex A-4 Third Party Submission of Australia – 5 January 2007 A-22
Annex A-5 Third Party Submission of Canada – 5 January 2007 A-31
Annex A-6 Third Party Submission of Chad – 5 January 2007 A-38
Annex A-7 Third Party Submission of the People's Republic of China –

A-52
Annex A-8 Third Party Submission of the European Communities –

A-57
Annex A-9 Third Party Submission of Japan – 5 January 2007 A-72
Annex A-10 Third Party Submissi on of New Zealand – 5 January 2007 A-79

ANNEX A-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FIRST WRITTEN
SUBMISSION OF BRAZIL

(Executive summary submitted on 24 November 2006)

1. This dispute results from the United States' fa ilure to implement, in a timely and complete
manner, the recommendations and rulings of the Dispute Settlement Body ("DSB") in U.S. – Upland
Cotton. Brazil challenges both the existence and consistency of U.S. measures taken to comply with
the "adverse effects"- and "export credit guarantee"-related recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

BRAZILIAN CLAIMS CONCERNING ADVERSE EFFECTS-RELATED RECOMMENDATIONS AND
RULINGS OF THE DSB

2. In its adverse effects-relate d recommendations and rulings, the original panel, as affirmed by
the Appellate Body, found that the price-contingent U.S. marketing loan program, counter-cyclical
payment program and Step 2 program of the FSRI Act of 2002 caused significant price suppression in
the world market for upland cotton, in violation of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the Agreement on
Subsidies and Countervailing Measures ("SCM Agreement"). The panel found that "the United States
is obliged to take action concerning its present stat utory and regulatory framework as a result of our
'present' serious prejudice findings."
1 The Dispute Settlement Body adopted the panel and Appellate
Body reports that obliged the United States to remove the adverse effects caused by the subsidies, or
to withdraw the subsidies, by 21 September 2005.

3. The United States did not repeal or amend any of the three price-contingent subsidy programs
until 1 August 2006, when it finally discontinued solely the Step 2 program. The far larger marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment programs have not been removed or amended to this day. Brazil
asserts four claims related to adverse effects implementation.

4. First, Brazil claims that between the expiry of the implementation period on
21 September 2005 and elimination of Step 2 paym ents on 1 August 2006, there did not "exist" any
U.S. "measures taken to comply" with the adverse effects-related recommendations and rulings of the
DSB.
2

5. Second, Brazil claims that the non-repealed price-contingent U.S. marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs cause present serious prejudice in the form of significant price
suppression in the world market for upland cotton, and an increase in the U.S. world market share, in
violation of Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement. In other words, Brazil claims that,
to the extent measures taken to comply with the adverse-effects related recommendations and rulings
of the DSB exist ( i.e., the repeal of Step 2 and the non-repeal of the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment programs), those measures continue to result in inconsistencies with the covered
agreements, within the meaning of Article 21.5 of the DSU.
3

6. Brazil establishes serious prejudice to its in terests based on data for the most recently
completed marketing year ("MY") – MY 2005. Full-year data on marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments to U.S. upland cotton farmers for MY 2006 – the first year in which Step 2 is not provided –

1 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1501.
2 See Section 6 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
3 See Section 7 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

will not be available until Septem ber 2007. Nevertheless, the compliance Panel, like the original
panel, can use a counter-factual analysis to evaluate the effects of marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments alone, and factor out any additional effects of Step 2 (or other subsidy) payments made in
MY 2005.
7. As a preliminary step, Brazil establishes that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs of the FSRI Act of 2002 constitute subsid ies that are specific, within the meaning of
Articles 1 and 2 of the SCM Agreement.4 In addition, upland cotton from Brazil continues to be a like
product with subsidized U.S. upland cotton and there continues to be a world market and the A-index
continues to constitute the world market price for upland cotton.5

8. To demonstrate a causal link between U.S. ma rketing loan and counter-cyclical payments and
significant price suppression, within the meaning of Article 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement,
Brazil examines the same factors relied upon by the original panel.

9. As the largest exporter of upland cotton in the world, the United St ates remains the single
most important market influencing world market pric es. Changes in the volume of U.S. production,
carry-over stocks, and exports have a significant impact on world market prices.
6 I n a d d i t i o n ,
movements in U.S., Brazilian, A-Index and futures mark et prices continue to show a broad similarity
and remain low relative to long term averages. 7

10. The magnitude of marketing loan and counte r-cyclical payments in MY 2005 was massive,
amounting to $2.17 billion, or 42 percent of the market value of U.S. upland cotton production. 8 As
the original panel found, the structure, design and operation of these subsidies continue to insulate
U.S. upland cotton producers from market forces 9, leading to high levels of U.S. planted acreage,
production and exports and, ultimately, suppressed world market prices. 10 Thus, there remains a
discernable temporal coincidence between these subsidies and suppressed world market prices.11

11. Over the long term (six years), U.S. costs of production for upland cotton continue to greatly
exceed market revenues. Without subsidies, th e average acre planted to upland cotton between
MY 2000-2005 would have lost $663, or $9.84 billi on for all acres. However, when revenue from
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments is included with market re venue, the average acre
would have made a total six-year profit of $127, or $1. 44 billion in aggregate. These facts succinctly
demonstrate that the effect of marketing loan and co unter-cyclical payments is to sustain higher levels
of output than would otherwise exist.12

12. Economic studies by leading academics show that marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments continue to stimulate U.S. production and exports and result in lower world market prices
than would prevail in their absence. Professor Dani el Sumner finds that the world market price of
upland cotton would have been between 9 and 11 pe rcent higher in MY 2005 in the absence of these
two U.S. subsidy programs. 13

4 See Section 7.3 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
5 See Section 7.4 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
6 See Section 7.5 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
7 See Section 7.6 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
8 See Section 7.7 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
9 See Section 7.8 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
10 See Section 7.9 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
11 See Section 7.10 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
12 See Section 7.11 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
13 See Section 7.12 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

13. In view of the size and nature of U.S. upland cotton subsidies and the commanding U.S.
market share, the price suppression is unmistakably significant.
14 Any price-suppressing effects of
Step 2 payments do not diminish the significan t and independent price-suppressing effects of
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments. Indeed, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office
concludes that counter-cyclical pa yments will be even larger in the absence of Step 2 payments. 15
Similarly, other non-subsidy factors that impact the world market price of upland cotton do not
account for the price suppression caused by marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments.16

14. Brazil also claims that the U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments cause serious
prejudice to the interests of Brazil by increasing th e U.S. share of the world upland cotton market,
within the meaning of Article 5(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement. The U.S. world market share of
upland cotton increased from an average of 19. 32 percent in MY 2002-2004 to 20.85 percent in
MY 2005, or from 16.98 percent in MY 2002-2004 to 17.44 percent in MY 2005, depending on
approach used to measure supply. The same effects from marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments that stimulate excessive U.S. productio n and exports and lower world market prices –
despite high costs and low market revenue and pri ces – also causes the increase in U.S. world market
share.
17

15. In sum, Brazil requests the compliance Panel to find that the U.S. measure eventually taken to
comply, i.e., the amendment of the FSRI Act of 2002 to repeal Section 1207(a), providing for Step 2
payments, is insufficient to ensure compliance wi th the recommendations and rulings of the DSB,
because the resulting basket of measur es is inconsistent with Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and 6.3(d) of the
SCM Agreement.

16. Third, Brazil claims that despite the repeal of the Step 2 program, the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments mandated under the FSRI Act of 2002 to be made in MY 2006, and
beyond, cause a threat of serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil, within the meaning of
Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c), as well as footnote 13 of the SCM Agreement. Brazil again claims that, to the
extent measures taken to comply with the adverse- effects related recommendations and rulings of the
DSB exist ( i.e., the repeal of the Step 2 program and the non-repeal of the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs), those measures ar e deficient, and result in inconsistencies with
the covered agreements, within the meaning of Article 21.5 of the DSU. Brazil notes that this claim is
contingent on the compliance Panel not being able to find that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programs cause present serious prejudice (Brazil's second adverse effects-related claim).

17. Key evidence supporting Brazil's threat claim in cludes the fact that the two remaining subsidy
programs – the marketing loan and counter-cycli cal payment programs – are mandatory, result in
guaranteed high levels of U.S. planted acreage, production and exports and have caused significant
price suppression throughout the history of the FSRI Act of 2002. With the repeal of the Step 2
program and the resulting lower domestic market prices in the United States, the effects of the
remaining two price-contingent U. S. subsidy programs will be, if anything, bigger in MY 2006, and
beyond. In fact, USDA and FAPRI projections re garding U.S. subsidy outlays under these programs,
upland cotton production, exports, pr ices and developments in U.S. cost of production for upland
cotton support a finding of a threat of serious prejudice from the U.S. marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments for upland cotton. These tw o subsidy programs under the FSRI Act of 2002
constitute a continuing threat of significantly suppressed world mark et prices for Brazilian and other
developing country producers that will continue until these measures are repealed or significantly

14 See Section 7.13 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
15 See Section 7.14 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
16 See Section 7.15 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
17 See Section 7.17 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

amended. Indeed, these subsidies caused serious prejudice during the first four years of the FSRI Act
of 2002, continue to cause present serious prejudice, and continue to cause a threat thereof.
18

18. Fourth, Brazil claims, on a contingent basis, that during the period 21 September 2005 to
31 July 2006, all three of the price-contingent subsidy programs of the FSRI Act of 2002, mentioned
above, have caused serious prejudice to Brazil. Br azil requests that the compliance Panel address this
claim only if it rejects Brazil's first, second and thir d claim, as outlined above. Brazil claims that the
failure of the United States to take any measures to remove the adverse effects or withdraw the three
price-contingent subsidy programs during this period has caused serious prejudice to the interests of
Brazil, in violation of Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement.19

19. In sum, with respect to the adverse effect s-related recommendations and rulings of the DSB,
Brazil requests the compliance Panel to conclude th at the original recommendation adopted by the
DSB – to "remove the adverse effects or [to] the subsidy" under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement –
remains in effect, and applies to the full extent of the findings requested by Brazil in these
Article 21.5 proceedings.20

BRAZILIAN CLAIMS CONCERNING EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEE-RELATED RECOMMENDATIONS
AND RULINGS OF THE DSB

20. The DSB recommended that the United States withdraw the three export credit guarantee
("ECG")subsidies maintained by the U.S. Commodity Credit Corporation ("CCC") – the GSM 102,
GSM 103 and SCGP programs – and otherwise bring itself into compliance with its obligations by the
implementation deadline of 1 July 2005. To im plement the DSB's recommendations and rulings, the
United States announced, on 1 July 2005, that CCC would no longer take applications for ECGs under
GSM 103, which underwrote credit for 3- to 10 -year periods, and amended the fee schedules for
ECGs issued under the GSM 102 and SCGP programs. 21 Brazil raises two claims with respect to the
U.S. measures taken to comply with the ECG-related recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

21. First, with respect to ECGs issued under the GSM 102, GSM 103 and SCGP programs prior
to 1 July 2005, but still outstanding subsequent to 1 July 2005, the United States has taken no action
whatsoever to withdraw the subsidy and otherwise bri ng itself into conformity with its obligations. In
regard to these outstanding ECGs, Brazil claims that measures taken to comply do not exist.22

22. Second, with respect to ECGs issued subsequent to 1 July 2005, they continue to be export
subsidies, and continue to be provi ded in a manner that results in circumvention of the United States'
export subsidy commitments. In this regard, th e United States' measures taken to comply are not
consistent with Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture and Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the
SCM Agreement.23

23. Since 1 October 2005 – the beginning of FY 2006 – the United States has not issued any
SCGP ECGs. Nor have any GSM 103 ECGs been issued since 1 July 2005, the implementation
deadline. Thus, Brazil's second claim, of continued inconsistency with the Agreement on Agriculture
and the SCM Agreement, applies solely to GSM 102, and not to GSM 103 or SCGP.24

18 See Section 8 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
19 See Section 9 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
20 See Section 10.3.3 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
21 See Section 10.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
22 See Section 10.3.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
23 See Section 10.3.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
24 See Section 10.3.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

24. GSM 102 ECGs guarantee the repayment of cr edit made available to finance commercial
exports of U.S. agricultural products. The guarant ees cover 98 percent of the principal and a portion
of the interest, and have a duration of 30 days to three years. GSM 102 operates solely in
circumstances where a foreign bank could not, with out the U.S. government's assistance, secure the
credit necessary to on-lend to its customer, the purchaser of U.S. agricultural exports.
25

25. Using the context of Articles 1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement, GSM 102 ECGs constitute
export subsidies for the purposes of Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture . Specifically,
GSM 102 ECGs (i) are "financial contributions" (ii) th at confer "benefits", and (iii) are contingent in
law on export performance.
26

26. With respect to the first element , Article 1.1(a)(1)(i) of the SCM Agreement includes as a
"financial contribution" "potential direct transfers of funds or liabilities ( e.g. loan guarantees)."
GSM 102 ECGs fall squarely within this definition. The third element is similarly straightforward.
Article 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement prohibits "subsidies contingent, in law or in fact, whether solely
or as one of several other conditions, upon expor t performance …." GSM 102 ECGs are expressly
conditioned on the export of eligible U.S. agricultural products.27

27. Turning to the second element, Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement provides that a "benefit"
must be conferred by virtue of the financial contri bution. The appropriate standard for determining
the existence of a benefit is whether the financial co ntribution has left the recipient better off than it
would otherwise have been. In the case of loan gu arantees, panels have adopted two approaches to
applying this standard. Under either appro ach, GSM 102 and GSM 102 ECGs are provided on terms
that constitute "benefits."28

28. The first approach seeks to determine whet her the government guarantee improves the terms
of the underlying loan compared to the terms that could have been secured without the government
guarantee. This approach builds on the benef it valuation principle in Article 14(c) of the
SCM Agreement. Article 14(c) calls for an examination focused on the difference between the
amount paid on a loan guaranteed by the government, compared to the amount that would have to be
paid on a comparable commercial loan, absent the gove rnment guarantee. Article 14(c) presumes, of
course, that a commercial loan could be secured by a recipient in the absence of the government
guarantee. If no loan would be available without the government guarantee – as U.S. regulations
establish is the case with transactions covere d by the GSM 102 program – a benefit exists per se .
This is in keeping with Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement , because if a "financial contribution"
enables the recipient to obtain a co mmercial loan that could not be otherwise obtained, an advantage
beyond what is available in the marketplace, or in other words, a "benefit", is conferred.29

29. The second approach builds on Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement, and seeks to determine
whether the government guarantee is available on terms better than a market-based guarantee.
30
Brazil compares GSM 102 fees with fees for comparable instruments offered by the Export-Import
Bank of the United States ("ExIm Bank"), the offi cial export credit agency of the United States.
Although ExIm bank is not a commercial operator, and indeed, assumes risk the private sector is
unable or unwilling to assume, the exercise offers a useful set of comparison points. Of the
1071 comparison points generated by the benc hmarking exercise, GSM 102 fees were below
comparable ExIm Bank fees 98 percent of the time. ExIm Bank fees exceeded GSM 102 fees by an

25 See Section 10.3.2.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
26 See Section 10.3.2.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
27 See Section 10.3.2.2.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
28 See Section 10.3.2.2.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
29 See Section 10.3.2.2.1.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
30 See Section 10.3.2.2.1.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

average of 112 percent for transactions involving an nual repayment of principal, and 97 percent for
transactions involving semi-annual repayment of princi pal. Accordingly, by comparison with fees
charged by ExIm Bank for comparable products, GSM 102 ECGs provide a considerable "benefit,"
under Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement.31

30. A further examination of GSM 102 ECGs shows that they are not designed to charge fees that
are consistent with market. The CCC does not take a ccount of the full costs of all of the risks it bears
in a GSM 102 transaction. In fact, by USDA's own admission, CCC is unable to do so given the one-
percent fee cap mandated by U.S. law. The CCC is limited by the program's structure and design
from taking full account of the risks that would be factored into pricing decisions by market-based
guarantors. It is, therefore, no surprise that th e fees for GSM 102 ECGs are provided on terms better
than could be secured by recipients were they to look for similar protection in the market.32

31. In sum, using the context of Articles 1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement, GSM 102 ECGs
constitute export subsidies for the purposes of Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture.

32. Brazil notes that in the original proceedings, both the panel and the Appellate Body relied on
the context offered by item (j) of the Illustrative List to inform the interpretation of the term "export
subsidies" in Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture. As was the case before the original panel,
GSM 102 fees continue to be insufficient to cove r the long-term operating costs and losses of the
program.33 Brazil requests that the compliance Panel only consider this alternative claim under
item (j) if it finds that GSM 102 ECGs are not export subsidies by virtue of the fact that they are
"financial contributions" that confer "benefits" and that are export contingent, under Articles 1.1
and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.

33. Although GSM 102 ECGs issued in Fiscal Years (FY) 2006 and 2007 are subject to the
amended GSM 102 fee schedule, the United States nevertheless projects that the CCC will suffer
losses by the time the 2006 and 2007 "cohorts" – or class of GSM 102 ECGs issued in those years –
close. Specifically, CCC projects losses of USD 125 million and USD 114 million, respectively, for
GSM 102 ECGs issued in FY 2006 and FY 2007 (before accounting for the costs of administering the
program). In other words, the United States itself does not believe that the new GSM 102 fee
schedule will result in income suffi cient to absorb total losses incurre d on the ECGs to which that fee
schedule applies.

34. Brazil notes, moreover, that fees for GSM 102 ECGs fall below the minimum premium rates
("MPRs") provided in the Organization for Econom ic Co-operation and De velopment's ("OECD")
Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Cr edits (the "Arrangement"). Brazil calculates
1064 comparison points between GSM 102 fees a nd MPRs. In 1063 of those 1064 comparisons,
GSM 102 fees fall below the Arrangement's MPRs. The Arrangement's MPRs are on average 106
percent greater than GSM 102 fees, meaning that GSM 102 fees are strikingly "inadequate to cover
long-term operating costs and losses associated with the provision of export credits".

35. Finally, for the same reasons indicated in th e previous "benefit" analysis (see paragraph 30),
Brazil contends that the structure, design and operation of the GSM 102 program under its amended
fee schedule are such that fees remain inadequate to cover long-term operating costs and losses.

36. Having shown that GSM 102 ECGs are expor t subsidies, Brazil demonstrates that the
United States has applied these export subsidies in a manner that results in circumvention of its export
subsidy commitments. Brazil demonstrates that ci rcumvention has occurred with respect to all

31 See Section 10.3.2.2.1.2.1 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
32 See Section 10.3.2.2.1.2.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
33 See Section 10.3.2.2.2 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

unscheduled products and three scheduled products – ri ce, pig meat and poultry meat – in violation of
Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture.
34

37. In sum, Brazil demonstrates that the GSM 102 program, as maintained by the United States
subsequent to 1 July 2005, is inconsistent with the Agreement on Agriculture . As a result, the
United States is not due the full protection of the safe harbor accorded by the exception in the opening
clause of Article 3.1 of the SCM Agreement, and the prohibition in Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 applies.35

38. For the same reasons that the GSM 102 program and GSM 102 EC Gs constitute export
subsidies under the Agreement on Agriculture , they similarly constitute prohibited export subsidies
under Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement. Brazil requests that the compliance Panel so
find.

39. In sum, with respect to the ECG-related r ecommendations and rulings of the DSB, Brazil
requests the compliance Panel to conclude that th e original recommendation adopted by the DSB – to
"withdraw the subsidy without delay" under Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement – remains in effect,
and applies to the full extent of the findings requested by Brazil in these Article 21.5 proceedings.
36

34 See Section 10.3.2.3 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
35 See Section 10.3.3 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
36 See Section 10.3.3 of Brazil's First Written Submission.

ANNEX A-2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FIRST WRITTEN
SUBMISSION AND REQUEST FOR PRELIMINARY
RULINGS OF THE UNITED STATES

(Executive Summary submitted on 22 December 2006)

1. The United States requests that the Panel reject Brazil's claims and find that the United States
has complied with the DSB's recommendations and ruli ngs and, further, that the U.S. measures taken
to comply are not inconsistent with the SCM Agreement or the Agreement on Agriculture. The Step 2
program for users and exporters of U.S. cotton, worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually, was
not the only program that the United States ceased to operate. It also ceased issuing guarantees under
two export credit guarantee programs, namely, the GSM 103 program and the Supplier Credit
Guarantee Program ("SCGP") program, under which th e United States had been issuing applications
for guarantees covering hundreds of millions of dollars of export transactions; the United States now
issues no guarantees under either of the two programs. The third export credit guarantee program at
issue in the underlying proceeding, the GSM 102 program, has been substantially modified and does
not constitute an export subsidy. Further, the Un ited States requests the Panel to make a preliminary
ruling (as explained below) that certain measures and claims relating to export credit guarantees are
not within the scope of this proceeding.

2. With respect to the Dispute Settlement Body's ("DSB") recommendations and rulings on
actionable subsidies, the panel's finding of "presen t" serious prejudice in the original proceeding
applied to a package of payments made under the Step 2, marketing loan, and counter-cyclical
payment programs in marketing years ("MY")1999-2002. Those payments were, thus, the only
measures subject to the DSB's recommendation under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement that the
United States "take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or . . . withdraw the subsidy."
Brazil submits no evidence whatsoever as to the present effects, if any, of the payments that were
subject to the original panel's finding and thus app ears to concede that these payments no longer have
any effect. The United States requests the Panel to make preliminary rulings (as explained below)
that certain measures and claims relating to certain U.S. programs are not within the scope of this
proceeding. Without prejudice to those requests, th e United States demonstrates that Brazil's claims
with respect to U.S. programs also fail to withstand scrutiny.

3. Export credit guarantees – GSM 102 guaran tees have been provided subsequent to
1 July 2005 consistently with U.S. WTO obligations. Brazil fails to make a prima facie case that
GSM 102 export credit guarantees were provided subse quent to 1 July 2005 in a manner inconsistent
with Articles 3.1 and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement. Article 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement prohibits
"subsidies contingent, in law or in fact, whether solely or as one of several other conditions, upon
export performance, including those illustrated in Annex I." Item (j) of the Illustrative List of Export
Subsidies in Annex I "illustrates" or "makes clear" the conditions under which export credit
guarantees may be considered export subsidies within the meaning of Article 3.1(a). Item (j) was the
basis of the DSB's recommendations and rulings w ith respect to the U.S. export credit guarantee
programs and, thus, it was the provision of the SCM Agreement that provided guidance to the
United States in determining how to implement th e DSB's recommendations and rulings. Item (j) is
also the item that most directly addresses the issue in this dispute. Accordingly, in this case, it is
item (j) that provides the basis for assessing wh ether or not GSM 102 export credit guarantees are
export subsidies within the meaning of Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement.

4. The approach advocated by Brazil – to assess whether GSM 102 guarantees are export
subsidies within the meaning of item (j) in the "altern ative," only if the Panel finds that they are not
'financial contributions' that confer 'benefits' and that are export contingent under Articles 1.1
and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement – would lead to the fatally flawed result that a measure that was
specifically found to fall outside the definition of an export subsidy could then be found to be an
export subsidy.

5. In addition to ceasing to issue guarantees under the GSM 103 and SCGP, the United States
has taken a number of steps to ensure that the graduated risk-based fee structure of the GSM 102
program covers the program's long-term operating costs and losses. Fees for the program now
increase with both risk category and tenor (the length of the loan). The United States also reclassified
into an ineligible risk category a large number of countries previously eligible under the programs.
These changes made to implement the DSB's recomme ndations and rulings bolster other disciplines
already in place.

6. The U.S. budget accounting data that has beco me available since the original proceeding
show that, for all programs, for the fourteen-year period commencing with fiscal year 1992, the export
credit guarantee programs received hundreds of millions of dollars more in premia and interest than
required to pay out in operating costs and losses, in cluding interest. These numbers indicate that the
United States earned a substantial profit on its programs even under the fee structure preceding the
changes implemented on July 1, 2005 . With respect to the GSM 102 program, alone, the budget data
also reflects that for every fiscal year cohort si nce 1992 the net lifetime re-estimates have been
negative. Given that the programs charged premium rates more than adequate to cover the long-term
operating costs and losses of the programs even be fore any changes were made to implement the
DSB's recommendations and rulings, the changes can only result in even more favorable financial
results.

7. Brazil's emphasis on the original subsidy estimates for the 2006 and 2007 cohorts in the
U.S. budget data – and the alleged "guaranteed lo an subsidy" for the GSM 102 program – cannot be
credited. The original "subsidy" estimate is made well before virtually any activity in the program has
occurred in the fiscal year and begins with a histor ically overly-optimistic proj ection of actual use of
the program. The requirement to use government-w ide estimation rules – including mandated risk
assessment country grades – without regard to th e actual experience specific to the CCC export credit
guarantee programs routinely results in initial overestimation of both utilization of the programs and a
corresponding overestimation of guaranteed loan subsidy estimates.

8. There is also no textual basis for Brazil's suggestion that an appropriate method of assessing
"benefit" under Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement is simply to compare fees of different
guarantees, and it ignores the myriad reasons why f ees might be different for different guarantees. A
difference in fees does not necessarily reflect that any "benefit" is being conferred. Brazil's
comparison of GSM 102 fees to Ex-Im Bank fees is flawed, all the more so given that Brazil has not
even taken into account other guarantees available in the marketplace.

9. – The United States has not provided ex port credit guarantees under the GSM 102
program inconsistently with Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture. Article 10.1 of
the Agreement on Agriculture prohibits the provision of export s ubsidies (other than those listed in
Article 9.1) "in a manner which results in, or whic h threatens to lead to, circumvention of export
subsidy commitments." While Article 1(e) of the Agreement on Agriculture defines "export
subsidies" as "subsidies contingent upon export perfo rmance," there is no further elaboration as to the
kinds of measures that meet this definition. Acco rdingly, the panel in the original proceeding found
that the SCM Agreement
 – which also includes provisions dealing with export subsidies – could
provide useful "contextual guidance." The fact that the GSM 102 export credit guarantees are not
export subsidies within the meaning of item (j) is relevant to the question under the Agreement on

Agriculture, and supports a finding that GSM 102 guarantees are not export subsidies for purposes of
Articles 8 and 10.1 of that Agreement.

10. – The United States has "taken action" to withdraw the subsidy with respect to
GSM 102, GSM 103, and SCGP export credit guarantees issued prior to 1 July 2005. There are
no export credit guarantees "still outstanding" under th e SCGP program. To the extent there are any
export credit guarantees outstanding under the GSM 102 and GSM 103 programs, the United States
has "taken action" with respect to them by changing the cost and fee structure of the entire portfolio of
programs of which they are part. The United Stat es ceased to provide "export credit guarantee . . .
programs at premium rates which are inadequate to cover the long-term operating costs and losses of
the programs" and, thus, withdrew the subsidy with respect to these export credit guarantees
regardless of when they were issued.

11. Actionable Subsidies – Brazil fails to substantiate its arguments that the effects of
eliminating the Step 2 program are "relatively modest." Brazil fails to substantiate its claims that
the elimination of the Step 2 program is insufficient to meet the U.S. obligation "to remove the
adverse effects [of]" the subsidy found to cause seri ous prejudice in the original proceeding. Brazil's
primary argument is that the counter-cyclical paymen t rate will increase due to a drop in U.S. farm
prices following elimination of the Step 2 program . However, Brazil cannot show that this will
happen in the current marketing year ( i.e., in the year that is relevant for Brazil's "present" serious
prejudice claims). To the contrary, the season average farm price is projected to be below the
marketing loan threshold of 52 cents/lb in the cu rrent marketing year (and would likely have been
below the threshold even if the Step 2 program were in effect). In these ci rcumstances, the marketing
loan rate – and not the season average farm price – is factored into the calculation of the counter-
cyclical payment rate and no drop in the season averag e farm price (whether due to elimination of the
Step 2 program or any other reason) will result in any change in the counter-cyclical payment rate.
Moreover, even in future years, any possible increase is likely to be small and less than the price
effect of the elimination of the Step 2 program.

12. Brazil also fails to explain that elimin ation of the Step 2 program likely has caused lower
marketing loan program payments because of a resulting increase in world prices and, thus, also in the
adjusted world price (or "AWP") that is calculat ed on the basis thereof. Since marketing loan
payments are calculated as the difference between the AWP and the 52 cents/lb marketing loan
threshold, an increase in the AWP results in a concurrent decrease in payments under the marketing
loan program. Thus, elimination of the Step 2 program is likely to minimize any adverse effects that
Brazil claims are being caused by the marketing loan program. Any positive effect of reducing the
amount of marketing loan payments, in turn, further amplifies the impact on the market of eliminating
the Step 2 program.

13. In addition, Brazil argues that the effect of eliminating the Step 2 program is allegedly
"relatively modest" because the program is smaller in size than the counter-cyclical payment program
and marketing loan program. However, Brazil has acknowledged before that the focus of the serious
prejudice analysis is on the effect of the challenged subsidy, not its size (and that size does not
necessarily say anything about effect). Indeed, in the original proceeding, Brazil considered that the
Step 2 program had the second largest impact on world prices and exports, even though payments
were smaller under that program than others. Braz il also ignores its own earlier arguments that the
"production effects" of the Step 2 program are onl y one way in which, in Brazil's view, Step 2
payments could have affected world market prices. Brazil fails to take into account the other effects it
alleged in the original proceeding, including the alleged "export-enhancing" nature of the program.
Moreover, to the extent that it is even possible to draw conclusions from the data available for the first
three months of MY 2006, the data do not appear to support Brazil's conclusion that elimination of the
Step 2 program has had "relatively modest" effects on production, exports, and world prices.

14. Brazil does not demonstrate that the marketing loan or counter-cyclical payment
program mandate a breach of U.S. obligations under Articles 5(c) and 6 of the SCM Agreement.
Brazil appears to be challenging, as such, the U. S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs, which the United States understands to be th e legal/regulatory provisions for the grant or
maintenance of the subsidies. As Brazil has r ecognized both in this dispute and others, it is
established under WTO law that a Member can only challenge measures of another Member per se
(i.e., "as such") if such measures mandate a viola tion of the WTO Agreement. Brazil has not shown
that the legal/regulatory provisions for the grant or maintenance of marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments mandate a breach of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) or 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement.

15. Brazil fails to make a prima facie case of WTO-inconsistency under Articles 5(c)
and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement. Brazil fails to make a prima facie case that "the effect" of the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment progr ams is "significant price suppression" within the
meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement . That is, therefore, not a basis for a finding of
serious prejudice within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement.

16. – Evidence regarding the structure, design, and operation of the counter-cyclical and
marketing loan payment programs do not support Brazil's claims. Although Brazil asserts that
"the nature" of the counter-cyclical payment program , in terms of its struct ure, design and operation,
provides evidence of a causal link between the pr ogram and the alleged present "significant price
suppression," Brazil fails to take into account the recent empirical research finding that there is no
evidence that counter-cyclical paym ents are the cause of any signifi cant changes in plantings. This
empirical research was not available at the time the original panel reviewed the counter-cyclical
payment program.

17. There also continues to be substantial evid ence showing that decoupled payments, such as
counter-cyclical payments, are capitalized into land values and land rents. Where land is rented – and
the data show that a substantial portion (almost half) of all U.S. fa rmland was rented in 2005 – some
amount of the value of decoupled payments is tran sferred from operators (to whom the payments are
actually made) to the owners of base acres in the form of higher rents and sales values, thereby
minimizing further any possible effects that counter-cyclical payments may have on production.

18. The empirical research regarding the mini mal production effects of the counter-cyclical
payment program is bolstered by data that show that traditional U.S. cotton farms receiving cotton
counter-cyclical payments planted approximately 40 percent fewer cotton acres over MY 2002-2005
than they had in the period used to calculate cotton base acres. This decline in cotton planted acres on
traditional U.S. cotton farms reflects the fact that other factors, such as weather and competing crops
drive planting, not counter-cyclical payments.

19. In the case of marketing loan payments, Br azil has acknowledged (through its economist) that
whether marketing loan payments have any effect on production depends on, inter alia , producers'
expectations at the time of planting both as to prices for the harvested crop and of payments. Despite
this, to support its arguments about the effects of the marketing loan program, Brazil points to data
showing that the actual AWP rates in MY 1999-present have been below the loan rate in a number of
years. Since farmers did not know at the time of planting what the
actual AWP would be during the
marketing year commencing up to seven months later, however, a comparison of the actual AWP to
the loan rate says nothing about whether th e marketing loan program actually affected
farmers' planting decisions from MY 1999 to the pre sent. An examination of the planting decisions
made by U.S. producers in the light of the actual c onditions as they existed as of the time of planting
shows that in many of the marketing years sin ce MY 1999 – including the present marketing year
(MY 2006) – expected prices were higher than the loan rate . Under these conditions, it cannot be
said that the marketing loan distorted U.S. produc ers' production decisions. Even in other years,
however – in which marketing loan payments co uld possibly have had an effect on planting –

information about actual planting decisions show that they were, in fact, shaped by market factors, not
the expectation of marketing loan payments.

20. Brazil's emphasis on what it terms variously th e "large," "very large," "huge," and "massive"
government outlays under the marketing loan and count er-cyclical payments programs is misplaced.
The size of government outlays alone says nothing about their effect, if any, on world market prices.
Moreover, Brazil's allegations of the "advantag e" given by the counter-cyclical payment and
marketing loan payment programs to U.S. producers and exporters to lower their prices and increase
their market share are unsubstantiated and do not support Brazil's claim of significant price
suppression.

21. – The facts demonstrate that U.S. producers and exporters have reacted to market
signals and are not "insulated" by the market ing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs.
The facts do not support Brazil's argument that th e marketing loans and counter-cyclical payment
programs "fuel" plantings and pr oduction by "insulating" U.S. producers and exporters from normal
market signals. To the contrary, U.S. share of world production has been stable over the life of the
FSRI Act. This reflects the fact that U.S. production has increased and decreased in much the same
way as production elsewhere in the world. Similarly, U.S. share of world exports has been stable over
the life of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 ("the FSRI Act"). Even the increase
in U.S. share of world market exports that o ccurred between MY 1999 and MY 2002 is the result of
market conditions (primarily, the decline in U.S. mill use and corresponding increase in consumption
elsewhere), not "the effect" of the counter-cyclical payment and marketing loan payment programs.
Thus, neither U.S. production nor U.S. export beha vior supports the claim that U.S. producers and
exporters are insulated from market forces as Brazil alleges.

22. Contrary to Brazil's assertions, Brazil do es not demonstrate a "strong link" between the
counter-cyclical payment and marketing loan paym ent programs, on the one hand, and world market
prices, on the other, through its attempts to show the absence of a "link" between "prices" and U.S.
planted acreage, production, and exports. Brazil's ar gument about the absence of such a link seems to
be inconsistent with its arguments elsewhere that the U.S. market is the "single most important
market" in influencing cotton prices. Moreover, Brazil's analys is of the sensitivity of U.S. planted
acreage, production, and exports to prices is flawed.

23. First
, Brazil's comparison of planted acreage to New York futures prices for cotton alone
ignores the fact that the cotton futures prices is not the sole basis for a farmer's planting decision;
other factors including, inter alia, the futures prices of competing cr ops are important considerations.
Second, Brazil's comparison of U.S. upland cotton production to actual prices again assumes,
incorrectly, that planting decisions could be explai ned through an examination of cotton prices alone.
It also assumes incorrectly that U.S. farmers know at the time that they plant (in January-March of a
given year) what the actual farm price will be in the upcoming marketing year, which does not even
start until August. Third , Brazil's comparison of upland cotton e xports and farm price fails to take
into account the market conditions – for example, important developments in the U.S. textile and
apparel industry – that were responsible for the changes in U.S. export patterns in the period MY 1998
to 2002. It also fails to address the fact that since the FSRI Act came into effect , U.S. share of world
exports has been fairly stable, showing that U.S. exporters have reacted to market conditions in the
same general way as foreign exporters.

24. – "Absolute" increases in U.S. production are "t he effect" of improvements in yields, not the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment program s. Brazil argues erroneously that an increasing
"absolute" volumes of U.S. production of upland cotton from MY 2002-2005 are indicative of alleged
trade-distortive effects of the U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment program. The
increasing absolute volumes of production were the result of record U.S. yields in the period from
MY 2002 though 2004, not the counter-cyclical paym ent and marketing loan payment programs.

There is no basis for Brazil's argument that any increase due to yield improvements should
nonetheless be attributed to the counter-cyclical payment and marketing loan payment programs.

25. – Brazil fails to demonstrate a "temporal coincidence" between marketing loan
payments and counter-cyclical paymen ts and the alleged price suppression. Contrary to Brazil's
assertions, it does not identify facts that "reinforce" the original panel's finding of a discernable
temporal coincidence between U.S. subsidies and pr ice suppression. Instead, consideration of each of
the factors reviewed by the original panel in coming to this conclusion demonstrate that there is no
such temporal coincidence now. First
, U.S. planted acreage has been stable for the entire period that
the FSRI Act has been in effect and is lower no w than in the period examined in the original
proceeding; there has been no "overall increase" in pl antings similar to that observed by the panel in
the original proceeding. Second , U.S. share of production has not increased over the period of the
FSRI Act, as it appeared to do between MY 1998 and MY 2002, the period examined by the original
panel. Third , the U.S. prices received by U.S. upland cotton producers have not decreased since the
FSRI Act came into effect. Fourth , while the A-Index in MY 2002-2005 was lower than the
1980-2001 average, this is not evidence of price suppression. Moreover, the fact that the A-Index has
trended downwards for more than 25 years – from well before the FSRI Act came into effect – and
that the A-Index has gone up from the levels that prevailed before the FSRI Act came into effect
would tend to suggest that, to the extent there is any price suppression, it is not "the effect" of the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs. Fifth , while the absolute volume of U.S.
exports went up over the period of the FSRI Act, U.S. share of world exports did not increase. This
shows that U.S. export behavior is shaped by the same market forces that shape the behavior of
foreign producers and exporters, not by "U.S. subsidies." Sixth , there have been low levels of U.S.
cotton imports for decades; this has little to do with the programs under the 2002 FSRI Act. In short,
none of these factors support a finding of a "temporal coincidence" now with respect to the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment programs.

26. – Brazil does not demonstrate that U.S. pr oducers would "switch to alternative crops"
in the absence of payments under the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs.
Brazil fails to show that "but for" the marketi ng loan and counter-cyclical payment programs, many
upland cotton producers would have had to disc ontinue growing upland cotton and switch to
alternative crops. Brazil's argument is based on the incorrect assumption that decisions about whether
to plant cotton or an alternative crop are made by reference to the "long-term total costs of
production" of upland cotton. That assumption is inconsistent with the accepted principle in
agricultural economics that the measure producers use when deciding what crops to grow is variable
costs of production, not "long-term total costs of pr oduction." The data show that, in the period
MY 2002 to 2005, U.S. producers have not only covere d variable costs but in almost all years have
covered most if not all of their total costs of growing cotton as well.

27. Total costs may be relevant, for example, to such long-term decisions as whether to continue
or exit cotton farming. However, those decisions are not made on the basis of a segmented cotton-
only analysis of costs and returns that Brazil presen ts in its first written submission. Rather, those
types of whole-farm decisions will be made taking into consideration whole-farm costs and returns,
including, for example, costs and revenue generate d from other crops that have been (or may be)
grown as well as off-farm revenues. Brazil has provided no analysis of whole farm costs and
revenues that would support its conclusion that, absent payments under the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs, certain cott on producers in the United States would exit cotton
farming altogether.

28. Brazil's analysis also ignores entirely the s ubstantial number of producers who do not receive
payments. Moreover, Brazil does not address the possi bility that any exit of high-cost U.S. producers
would be offset by the expansion of the productio n of more efficient lower-cost U.S. producers,
leaving U.S. plantings and production at the same levels overall.

29. – Brazil attempts to attribute the price effects of other factors to the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs. Brazil's claim that the U.S. marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment programs are "fueling" U.S. planting, production, and exports and thereby
significantly suppressing world market prices is also premised on an overly-simplistic view of the
world cotton market. Brazil ignores – and, in fact, attempts to attribute to the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs – the effects of ot her factors, including, importantly, China's trade
in cotton. While Brazil fails to provide evidence th at the United States "drives" world market prices
for upland cotton, there is substantial evidence of a close correlation between China's net trade in
cotton and the A-Index. Thus, contrary to Braz il's assertions, the United States is not the most
important market influencing cotton prices throughout the world, nor the "driver" of the world market
price. Brazil's attempts to ascribe price-suppressive effects to the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programs on the basis of these repres entations – without properly addressing and
distinguishing the effects of such other factors as th e impact of China's net trade and trade policies –
are untenable.

30. Indeed, what Brazil believes is the measure of the "world price" itself – the A-Index – has
been changed to reflect the importance of China in the world cotton market. The A-Index is now no
longer calculated on the basis of prices of cotton delivered to Northern Europe. Rather, the A-Index is
now calculated on the basis of cotton delivered to Far East ports . This is not a mere "technical
change," as Brazil alleges. The fact that such a shift was necessary to a llow proper measurement of
"international cotton price movements" and that this shift was driven primarily by the impact on the
market of a single country – China – confirms what the market reports overwhelmingly recognize: the
price trends for upland cotton cannot be explaine d except by accounting for China's influence on the
market.

31. Moreover, contrary to Brazil's assertions, downward pressure on prices results from
uncertainty about the reliability of China' s supply and demand statistics as well as ad hoc changes in
government policies. Uncertainty leads to increa sed price volatility and risk to world market
participants. These effects are reflected in prices. This is even confirmed by the market reports that
Brazil itself submits.

32. – The econometric modeling cited by Brazil is flawed and greatly exaggerates any effects
of removing the programs. Even based on a preliminary review of the econometric model submitted
by Brazil, it is apparent that the model relies on a series of flawed economic assumptions that grossly
overstate any possible effect of removing the market ing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs.
Contrary to Brazil's assertions, the important parame ters used in the model are not commonly used by
U.S. Department of Agriculture ("USDA") or Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
("FAPRI") economists. Indeed, the parameters in Br azil's new model are even more exaggerated than
the parameters used in what Brazil termed was th e "FAPRI-like" model presented in the original
proceeding. Brazil now ascribes to the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs almost
the same price effects that it had previously ascribed to six programs (the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment programs plus four others). The marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs have not changed; what has changed are the assumptions that Brazil makes to produce the
more egregious effects.

33. The United States demonstrates that, when cer tain "key elasticities" and some other basic
assumptions are re-calibrated to actually reflect FAPRI and other well- established parameters, the
price effects predicted by Brazil's new model de cline sharply (ranging, for example, from only
0.96 percent to 1.52 percent over the period MY 2006-2008). More detailed analysis and re-
calibration would presumably reduce the price effect s even more. Both this model and the World
Bank study to which Brazil also cites greatly ex aggerate any possible impact of removing the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs. They are, thus, also inconsistent with other
recent studies showing only minimal price impacts from removing those programs.

34. – Brazil has not demonstrated that "the effect" of the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment program is "significant" price suppression. T h e SCM Agreement does not
define "significant" price suppression. The ordinary meaning of significant, however, is "important,
notable; consequential," which suggests that any pr ice suppression must reach a level at which it is
important, notable, and consequential in order to be inconsistent with Article 6.3(c). Brazil does little
more than cite back to the same arguments it ma kes in its causation discussion to attempt to show
"significant" price suppression. In so doing, Brazil effectively writes "significant" out of
Article 6.3(c) altogether. Brazil does not explain how any of the arguments it makes in its causation
discussion demonstrate that the degree of the alleged price suppression is "important, notable;
consequential."

35. – Brazil fails to make a prima facie case of WTO-inconsistency under Articles 5(c)
and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement. Brazil fails to make a prima facie case that the United States is
causing "serious prejudice" to Brazil's interests within the meaning of Articles 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement because "the effect" of U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs
under the FSRI Act is an increase in the U.S. world ma rket share within the meaning of Article 6.3(d)
of the SCM Agreement . Even leaving aside the lack of lega l basis for Brazil's claims against the
programs, as such, Brazil does not demonstrate that all of the elements of Article 5(c) and 6.3(d) are
satisfied.

36. In the original proceeding, the panel interpre ted "world market share" under Article 6.3(d) to
mean "share of the world market supplied by th e subsidizing Member of the product concerned."
Brazil has proposed two different measures of "suppl y" – either production in a marketing year or
production plus beginning stocks in a marketing year. It is not necessary for the Panel to decide, for
purposes of this proceeding, which is the more appropriate measure because Brazil's claim fails under
either approach. First
, while Brazil asserts its cl aim in respect of MY 2005, Brazil fails to segregate
from the adverse effects it alleges any effects of the Step 2 program. Second , Brazil fails to
demonstrate that the slight increase in share of world production or productio n plus beginning stocks
over the average share in MY 2002-2004 "follows a consistent trend over a period when subsidies
have been granted." To the contrary, the data show cl early that it is a part of the ordinary fluctuations
in U.S. share of world production. This is true no matter how far back in ti me one looks. There is,
therefore, no basis for Brazil's claim under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement.

37. Requests For Preliminary Rulings – Brazil's claims relating to GSM 102 guarantees in
respect of exports of pig meat and poultry me at are outside the scope of this proceeding.
GSM 102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat have never been found to be
WTO-inconsistent nor been subject to any DSB recommendation. Under these circumstances, the
GSM 102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat are not measures taken to
comply with the recommendations and rulings of th e DSB and are not measures within the scope of
this proceeding. Further, Brazil's claims under Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture
and Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement are outside the scope of this proceeding to the
extent that they relate to GSM 102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat.
There is no merit to Brazil's argument that it is entit led to re-assert its claims in respect of these GSM
102 guarantees because it "successfully appealed" the panel's findings regarding the GSM 102
guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat. Even though the original panel's
findings were reversed, that changes nothing about th e fact that the Appellate Body did not complete
the legal analysis and, thus, made no finding of WTO-inconsistency against the measures (and the
DSB also issued no rulings and recommendations addressed to them).

38. – Brazil's claims in respect of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs are outside the scope of this proceeding. To the extent that Brazil's claims of serious
prejudice and threat of serious prejudice are against the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs under the FSRI Act, the claims are outside the sc ope of this proceeding. The original panel
made only one actionable subsidy finding – with respect to Brazil's claim of "present" serious

prejudice under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement against certain payments made in MY
1999-2002. The marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs were not subject either to a
finding of WTO-inconsistency or any DSB rulings and recommendations. They are, therefore, not
measures within the scope of this proceeding. Moreover, Brazil's claims relating to these programs
under Articles 5 and 6 of the SCM Agreement are not within the scope of this proceeding.

39. – Brazil's claims against the marketing loan program and the counter-cyclical program
are outside the scope of this dispute because these measures were not "taken to comply" under
DSU Article 21.5. Brazil's claims against the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs
are also outside the scope of these proceedings because the programs have not been changed in
response to DSB recommendations and rulings or othe rwise. Brazil may not renew in an Article 21.5
proceeding claims made in the original proceeding ag ainst a measure which is the same measure as in
the original proceeding. In the present case, Brazil may not raise again the claims of serious prejudice
or threat of serious prejudice under Article 5(c) and 6.3(c) and (d) of the SCM Agreement against the
marketing loan payment program and the counter-cyc lical program. These claims are outside the
scope of this Article 21.5 proceeding.

40. – Brazil's claims that there were no measures ta ken to comply in a past period are not
within the scope of the proceeding. Brazil claims that the United St ates failed to take measures to
comply with the DSB's actionable subsidy-related recommendation in a timely fashion and seeks a
finding that there was a period in the past (21 September 2005 to 31 July 2006) in which no measure
taken to comply existed. However, as Brazil does not dispute that measures taken to comply exist,
there is no "disagreement" (as required by Article 21.5) over the "existence" of measures taken to
comply. There is also no textual basis for an ex ercise such as the one Brazil is seeking and it would
seem contrary to the statement in DSU Article 3.7 that "the aim of the dispute settlement mechanism
is to secure a positive solution to a dispute." Thus , Brazil's claim that there were no U.S. measures
taken to comply between 22 September 2005 and 31 July 2006 is not within the scope of this
proceeding.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. Argentina is grateful for this opportunity to give its views as a third party in this dispute. It
will be making a series of comments on some of the arguments put forward by Brazil and the
United States in their respective written submis sions of 7 November and 15 December, without
prejudice to any further comments at the meeting of the Panel with the parties and third parties.

2. Argentina will be referring to th e following matters in particular:

(a) Deficiency of the measures taken by the United States to implement the DSB's
recommendations and rulings rega rding the actionable subsidies
 found to be
inconsistent with the WTO Agreements.

(b) Inadequacy of the measures taken by the United States to implement the DSB's
recommendations and rulings rega rding the prohibited subsidies found to be
inconsistent with the WTO Agreements.

II. ARGUMENTS

A. D
EFICIENCY OF THE UNITED STATES' MEASURES REGARDING ACTIONABLE SUBSIDIES

3. Argentina agrees with Brazil that the Unite d States has not fulfilled its obligation under
Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement in respect of the price-contingent subsidy programmes for upland
cotton implemented under the Farm Security and Ru ral Investment (FSRI) Act of 2002, since the
programmes have been neither withdrawn nor significantly changed.

4. Argentina agrees with Brazil that the measures ta ken by the United States are deficient in that,
although the user marketing (Step 2) payments progr amme has been repealed, the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments programmes remain intact.

5. In this regard, a recent document of the C ongressional Research Service is enlightening in its
statement that "... additional permanent modificati ons to US farm programs may still be needed to
fully comply with the 'actionable subsidies' portion of the WTO ruling."
1

6. Brazil produced conclusive evidence that the marketing loans and counter-cyclical
programmes continue to have a dverse effects on the interests of Brazil and other cotton-producing
countries, such as Argentina, in the form of serious prejudice caused by significant price suppression.

7. Furthermore, following Brazil's assertion that withdrawal of the Step 2 programme could
result in higher payments under the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes, in July 2005
Keith Collins, Chief Economist of the USDA, suggest ed that "... ending the Step 2 program would
result in slightly lower domestic prices – by tw o to three cents per pound – and higher export prices
for US cotton. […] that declines in producer prices would be lik ely to trigger an increase in counter-
cyclical payments (CCP) to US cotton farmers that would offset losses from lower prices".2

8. Consequently, Argentina is of the view that the United States is not implementing the DSB's
recommendation regarding the measures identified as actionable subsidies.

1 Congressional Research Servi ce, RS22552, December 11, 2006, "A gricultural Issues in the 110 th
Congress", Ralph M. Chite, Specialist in Agricultural Policy Resources, Science, and Industry Division.
2 Congressional Research Service, RS22187, Septembe r 8, 2006, "U.S. Agricultural Policy Response
to WTO Cotton Decision". Randy Schnepf Specialist in Agricultural Policy Resources, Science, and Industry
Division.

B. I
NADEQUACY OF THE UNITED STATES' MEASURES REGARDING PROHIBITED SUBSIDIES

9. In its written submission 3, the United States asserts that export credit guarantees have been
provided under the GSM-102 programme subsequent to 1 July 2005, consistently with the
United States' WTO obligations.

10. Argentina demurs: as Brazil held
4, the United States' "measures taken to comply" fail to
implement adequately the recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

11. Argentina would point out that the original Panel found (and its finding was later confirmed
by the Appellate Body) that the export cred it guarantee programmes maintained by the US
Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) – the Gene ral Sales Manager 102 (G SM-102), General Sales
Manager and the Supplier Credit-Guarantee (SCGP) programmes (GSM-103) – pertaining to exports
of upland cotton and other agricultural products not included in the Schedule of Commitments
supported under the programmes and one scheduled co mmodity (rice), are export subsidies applied in
a manner which results in circumvention of the Un ited States' export subsidy commitments within the
meaning of Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture, and are therefore inconsistent with Article 8
of that Agreement. The Panel further found that such programmes constitute per se export subsidies
prohibited by Article 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement.

12. On the strength of those findings the DSB recommended that the United States withdraw the
prohibited subsidies without delay in accordance with Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement, and by
1 July 2005 at the latest.

13. Argentina's first observation is that alt hough the United States was under an obligation to
withdraw them "without delay" the programmes were still intact at 1 July 2005. Furthermore, the
GSM-102, GSM-103 and SCGP programmes have still not been withdrawn in the strict sense of the
term.

14. It is Argentina's understanding that, properly construed, the rule in question requires the
United States not only to "withdraw" the prohibited subsidies but also to take steps to that end
"without delay"; so for the obligation here, fulfilmen t is subject to a time factor. Argentina therefore
believes that the time taken to implement "wit hdrawal" of the measure cannot be overlooked in
assessing compliance with the above-mentioned requirements.

15. Secondly, Argentina points out that despite the DSB's recommendations and the provisions of
Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement, as con cerns the GSM-103 and SCGP programmes the
United States merely announced that no more a pplications would be accepted under the programmes
as from 1 July 2005 and 1 October 2005 respectively. In Argentina's view, to stop there would be a
lowering of standards in terms of the obligation laid down in Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement
which expressly prescribes "withdrawal" of the measure and not merely "non-acceptance of new
applications", which appears to be the United Stat es' interpretation judging from its assumption that
by not accepting new applications it would be comply ing with the above-mentioned rule and with the
DSB's recommendations.
5

16. In Argentina's view, the negative consequences of allowing that assumption need to be
stressed, since the prohibited subsidy still exists an d so too, therefore, does its inconsistency with
WTO rules.

3 First Written Submission of the United States, point V.A. (page 30).
4 First Written Submission of Brazil, point 10 (page 130).
5 First Written Submission of the United States, pages 2, 8 and 66.

17. The Appellate Body's observation in Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada) is enlightening
in this regard:

"Turning to the ordinary meaning of 'withdraw al', we observe first that this word has
been defined as 'remove' or 'take away', and as 'to take away what has been enjoyed;
to take from'. This definition suggests that 'withdrawal' of a subsidy, under
Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement, refers to the 'removal' or the 'taking away' of that
subsidy. ... In our view, to continue to make payments unde r an export subsidy
measure found to be prohibited is not cons istent with the obligation to 'withdraw'
prohibited export subsidies, in the sense of 'removing' or 'taking away'".6
18. In Argentina's view, it needs to be made clear that although in the dispute cited above
payments continued to be made under an export s ubsidy measure found to be prohibited and in the
present dispute the United States has announced that it will not continue to grant export credit
guarantees, this does not exempt the United States from complying properly and without delay with
the obligation laid down in Article 4.7 of the SCM Agreement.

19. In short, for Argentina, withdrawal of the measure as meant by the Panel in its
recommendation implies terminating the programme
 and not merely suspending payments or refusing
new applications.

20. Thirdly, Argentina agrees with Brazil that th e changes introduced by the United States in the
GSM-102 programme are insufficient to comply with the Panel's recommendation to withdraw the
prohibited subsidies without delay , and are moreover inconsistent with Articles 10.1 and 8 of the
Agreement on Agriculture and Article 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement.

21. The GSM-102 programme constitutes a "finan cial contribution" "contingent upon export
performance" which confers a "benefit" on the recipien ts, despite the changes in rates introduced by
the United States, as Brazil shows in its written submission.
7 Consequently, the GSM-102
programme constitutes an export subsidy within th e meaning of Articles 1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM
Agreement, circumvention of the United States ' reduction commitments under Article 10.1 of the
Agreement on Agriculture in respect of upland cotton and other unscheduled agricultural products and
in respect of certain products in the Schedule of Commitments (particularly rice), as well as a breach
of Article 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture.

22. Furthermore, Argentina does not share the Un ited States' interpretation in its assertion that
GSM-102 export loan guarantees are not export subsid ies under Articles 8 and 10.1 of the Agreement
on Agriculture.8

23. Argentina accordingly considers that the United States is not complying with the DSB's
recommendation to "withdraw without delay" the above-mentioned programmes identified as
prohibited subsidies.

III. CONCLUSION

24. In the light of the foregoing, Argentina c onsiders that the United States has not fully and
properly complied with the DSB's recommendations, particularly: (a) the recommendations regarding
the actionable subsidies, because the measures adopted are defici ent; and (b) the recommendations
regarding the prohibited subsidies, because the measures applied by the United States, are inadequate.

6 Report of the Appellate Body in Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada), paragraph 45.
7 First Written Submission of Brazil, point 10.3.2.2.1.
8 First Written Submission of the United States, point V.A.2.

TABLE OF CASES

Short Title Full Case Title and Citation
Australia – Salmon
(Article 21.5 - Canada)
Panel Report, Australia – Measures Affec ting Importation of Salmon –
Recourse to Article 21.5 by Canada , WT/DS18/RW, adopted 20 March
2000, DSR 2000:IV, 2031
Brazil – Aircraft
(Article 21.5 – Canada I)
Appellate Body Report, Brazil – Export Financing Programme for
Aircraft –Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
WT/DS46/AB/R, adopted 4 August 2000, DSR 2000:VIII, 4067
Brazil – Aircraft
(Article 21.5 – Canada I)
Panel Report, Brazil – Export Financing Programme for Aircraft –
Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU , WT/DS46/RW,
adopted 4 August 2000, as modified by the Appellate Body Report,
WT/DS/46/AB/R, DSR 2000:IX, 4093
Canada – Aircraft
(Article 21.5 - Brazil)
Appellate Body Report, Canada – Measures Affecting the Export of
Civilian Aircraft – Recourse by Brazil to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
WT/DS70/AB/RW, adopted 4 August 2000, DSR 2000:IX, 4299
Chile – Price Band
System (Article 21.5 -
Argentina)
Panel Report, Chile – Price Band System and Safeguard Measures
Relating to Certain Agricultural Products - Recourse to Article 21.5 of
the DSU by Argentina, WT/DS207/RW, 8 December 2006
EC – Bed Linen
(Article 21.5 - India)
Appellate Body Report, European Communities – Anti-Dumping Duties
on Imports of Cotton-Type Bed Li nen from India – Recourse to
Article 21.5 of the DSU by India, WT/DS141/AB/RW, adopted 24 April
2003, DSR 2003:III, 965
Korea - Vessels Panel Report, Korea – Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial
Vessels, WT/DS273/R, adopted 11 April 2005
US – Softwood
Lumber IV (Article 21.5
– Canada)
Appellate Body Report, United States - Final Countervailing Duty
Determination with Respect to Certain Softwood Lumber from Canada
- Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU, WT/DS257/AB/RW,
adopted 20 December 2005
US – FSC Appellate Body Report, United States – Tax Treatment for "Foreign
Sales Corporations" WT/DS108/AB/R, adopted on 20 March 2000,
DSR 2000: III, 1619
US – FSC (Article 21.5 –
EC II)
Appellate Body Report, United States – Tax Treatment for "Foreign
Sales Corporations" – Second Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by
the European Communities, WT/DS108/AB/RW2, 14 March 2006
US – Shrimp
(Article 21.5 - Malaysia)
Appellate Body Report, United States – Import Prohibition of Certain
Shrimp and Shrimp Products – Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by
Malaysia, WT/DS58/AB/RW, adopted 21 November 2001,
DSR 2001:XIII, 6481
US – Upland Cotton Appellate Body Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton ,
WT/DS267/AB/R, adopted 21 March 2005
US – Upland Cotton Panel Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton ,
WT/DS267/R, and Corr.1, adopted 21 March 2005, modified by
Appellate Body Report, WT/DS/267/AB/R

INTRODUCTION

1. Australia considers that these proceedings under Article 21.5 of the Understanding on Rules
and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU) raise a number of issues of systemic
importance and legal interpretation, which Australia will address in this written submission. These
issues are:

(a) The scope of Article 21.5 proceedings, in relation to the United States requests for
preliminary rulings;

(b) the order of analysis concerning Articles 1. 1 and 3.1(a) and item (j) of the Illustrative
List of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement),
in relation to the prohibited subsidies claims, including whether an a contrario
interpretation of item (j) is permissible; and

(c) in relation to the actionable subsidies claims, whether the United States, by repealing
the Step 2 payment programme, but mainta ining the two other price-contingent
subsidies (payments under the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programmes), has taken appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects of the
subsidies or to withdraw the subsidies, within the meaning of Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement in accordance with the recommendations and rulings of the Dispute
Settlement Body (DSB) with respect to those subsidies.

Australia reserves the right to raise other issues in the third-party hearing with the Panel.

A. S
COPE OF ARTICLE 21.5 PROCEEDINGS – REQUESTS FOR PRELIMINARY RULINGS

2. The United States, in its First Written Submis sion, requests a number of preliminary rulings
that raise important systemic issues concerning the scope of Article 21.5 proceedings and require
careful consideration of relevant jurisprudence of the Appellate Body and Article 21.5 Panels.

3. Australia recalls that Article 21.1 expr essly provides that "prompt compliance with
recommendations or rulings of the DSB is essential in order to ensure effective resolution of disputes
to the benefit of all Members." Thus, one of the objectives of Article 21.5 is to "avoid a complaining
Member having to initiate dispute settlement proceed ings afresh when an original measure found to
be inconsistent has not been brought into confor mity with the recommendations and rulings of the
DSB."
1 Australia submits that were the United States requests for preliminary rulings to be granted,
Brazil would be forced to initiate dispute settlement proceedings afresh in respect of claims which
properly would fall within the scope of these Article 21.5 proceedings.

4. Australia recalls that the scope of proceed ings under Article 21.5 is to determine "the
existence or consistency with a covered agr eement of measures taken to comply with the
recommendations and rulings" of the DSB. The use of the disjunctive 'or' makes clear that
Article 21.5 proceedings can address two different situ ations. The first is the 'existence' of measures
taken to comply with DSB recommendations and ruli ngs. Accordingly, a panel may consider a claim
that a Member has not taken measures to comply. The second is the 'consistency' with a covered
agreement of measures taken to comply with DS B recommendations and ruli ngs. Accordingly, a
panel may consider a claim that implementing measures taken by a Member are inconsistent with a
covered agreement.
2

1 US - Softwood Lumber IV (Article 21.5 – Canada), para. 72.
2 See EC – Bed Linen (Article 21.5 - India), para. 79.

5. In considering the phrase 'measures ta ken to comply', the Appellate Body in Canada –
Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Brazil) expressed the view that:

… the claims, arguments and factual circumstances which are pertinent to the
"measure taken to comply" will not, neces sarily, be the same as those which were
pertinent in the original dispute. Ind eed, the utility of the review envisaged under
Article 21.5 of the DSU would be seriously u ndermined if a panel were restricted to
examining the new measure from the perspective of the claims, arguments and factual
circumstances that related to the origin al measure, because an Article 21.5 panel
would then be unable to examine fully the "consistency with a c overed agreement of
the measures taken to comply", as required by Article 21.5 of the DSU.
3

6. Moreover, a Panel constituted under Artic le 21.5 of the DSU should consider the new
measure "in its totality."
4 The fulfilment of this task requires that a panel consider both the measure
itself and the measure's application provided that the specific claim has been made by the complainant
when the matter is referred by the DSB for an Article 21.5 proceeding.5

7. The Appellate Body has identified situati ons where measures fall outside the scope of
Article 21.5 proceedings. It has held that:

[i]t would be incompatible with the function and purpose of the WTO dispute
settlement system if a claim could be reasserted in Article 21.5 proceedings after the
original panel or the Appellate Body has made a finding that the challenged aspect of
the original measure is not inconsistent with WTO obligations, and that report has
been adopted by the DSB.
6

1. Request relating to GSM 102 programme in respect of pig meat and poultry meat

8. Taking this jurisprudence into account, Aust ralia submits that Brazil's claims relating to
General Sales Manager (GSM) 102 guarantees issued by the United States Commodity Credit
Corporation in respect of exports of pig meat a nd poultry meat may properly be considered by the
Panel.

9. Australia does not agree with the United St ates' submission that because there is neither a
finding that GSM 102 guarantees in respect of pig meat and poultry meat are WTO-inconsistent nor
that they are the subject of a DSB recommendation, that Brazil's claims concerning the application of
the new measure in respect of pig meat and pou ltry meat fall outside the scope of Article 21.5
proceedings.
7

10. The situation in the present case is not th at of a measure that was not challenged in the
original proceedings or, if challenged, was address ed in those proceedings and not found to be WTO-
inconsistent.
8 The claim specifically made by Brazil in its request for establishment of this Panel
relates to the WTO-consistency of a new meas ure – guarantees issued under the revised GSM 102

3 Canada – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Brazil) , para. 41. See also US - FSC (Article 21.5 – EC II),
para. 93.
5 Ibid.
6 EC –Bed Linen (Article 21.5 - India), para. 98.
7 United States First Written Submission, paras. 27 and 28.
8 Compare with Chile – Price Band System (Article 21.5 – Argentina) , in which the Panel, at
para. 7.141, set out the conditions under which an Article 21.5 panel may consider new claims which were not
raised before the original panel.

programme – the revisions to which, as the Un ited States acknowledges, were implemented in
response to the rulings and recommendations of the DSB.
9 Brazil is entitled to request, and the
Article 21.5 Panel is required to consider, the new measure in its totality, including the measure's
application. Thus, while Brazil alleges that it is "entitled to re-assert" its claim concerning actual
circumvention with respect to pig meat and poultry meat, in effect Brazil's claim relates to the WTO
consistency of a new measure (the revised GSM 102 programme) implemented in response to the
DSB rulings and recommendations which was not before the original panel.10

11. Australia therefore submits that the United Stat es' request that the Panel reject Brazil's claims
relating to GSM 102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat should be refused.

2. Request concerning Brazil's claims against the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programmes

12. The United States also seeks a preliminary ru ling that Brazil's claims against the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment (CCP) programm es fall outside the scope of the Article 21.5
proceedings on two grounds – that the two prog rammes were not subject to any finding of
WTO-inconsistency or any DSB recommendations, a nd those programmes were not "measures taken
to comply" within the meaning of Article 21.5.

13. The United States argues that the marketing loan and the counter-cyclical payment
programmes are not measures to which the DSB r ecommendations and rulings were addressed since
those recommendations and rulings concerned th e programmes as applied and not as such, and
therefore that Brazil's claims in relation to tho se programmes fall outside the scope of Article 21.5
proceedings.

14. Australia agrees that the Panel's findi ngs of WTO inconsistency contained in
paragraph 8.1(g)(i) of its Report related to the "m andatory price-contingent United States subsidy
measures – marketing loan programme payments , user marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA
[marketing loan assistance] payments and CCP payments" rather than to the programmes as such.
11

15. However, Australia does not agree with the Un ited States that Brazil is seeking to challenge
the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes per se. Australia is of the view that the
focus of the case under Articles 5 and 6 of the SCM Agreement is the continuing effects of the
unamended programmes (that is, payments made unde r the programmes) rather than the programmes
as such. Australia submits that it is impossible to an alyze the price-contingent subsidy measures
(marketing loan programme payments and CCP paym ents) still in existence in isolation from the
programmes that govern those measures. In so far as a consideration of those programmes is
necessary to determine whether the continuing pric e-contingent subsidy measures cause significant
price suppression causing serious prejudice to Brazil's interests, then Australia submits that such
programmes may properly be considered by the Article 21.5 Panel.

16. Australia further submits that the fact that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments
programmes have not changed does not prevent them from being considered by an Article 21.5 Panel
in the context referred to above, when determining the existence or consistency of measures taken to

9 United States First Written Submission, para. 72.
10 Compare with Canada – Aircraft (Article 21.5 - Brazil), paras. 36-37.
11 In an exercise of judicial econo my, the Panel did not address Brazil's per se claims relating to the
measures [allegedly mandatory legislative provisions an d implement regulations providing for the payment of
Step 2 payments, marketing loan pr ogramme payments, direct payments, counter-cyclical payments and crop
insurance payments] under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) and (d) of the SCM Agreement and Articles XVI:1
and XVI:3 of the GATT 1994: US – Cotton, para. 7.1511.

comply with the recommendations and rulings co ncerning payments made under those programmes
(the measures at issue in the original proceedings).

17. Australia therefore submits that the United States' requests concerning the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programmes should be refused.

3. Request concerning Brazil's claims that there were no measures taken to comply
between 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006

18. The United States seeks a preliminary ruling to th e effect that Brazil's claims that there were
no measures taken to comply in a past period (21 September 2005 to 31 July 2006) are not within the
scope of these Article 21.5 proceedings. The United States argues that "DSU Article 21.5 does not
provide that the task of the Panel is to decide – or, rather, declare – whether measures were taken to
comply 'in a timely fashion.' In fact, DSU Article 21.5 does not refer to the issue of "timeliness" of
implementation at all."
12

19. Australia notes that the role of an Article 21.5 Panel is to examine the existence or
consistency of measures taken to comply, and submits that an examination of "existence" of measures
taken to comply can encompass a finding that no m easures taken to comply exist within the meaning
of Article 21.5 of the DSU. Such a finding was made by the Panel in Australia – Salmon (Article 21.5
– Canada). In that case, the Panel found that because the date of entry into force of measures taken to
comply by Australia occurred subsequent to th e date upon which the reasonable period of time for
implementation expired, for the period of time that the new measures did not apply subsequent to that
date, "no measures taken to comply existed … in the sense of Article 21.5."
13

20. Australia submits that a preliminary ruling ca nnot be granted in a way that would void rights
under Article 22 of the DSU. This is because Article 3.2 of the DSU makes clear that
"recommendations and rulings of the DSB cannot a dd to or diminish the rights and obligations
provided in the covered agreements." Pursuant to Article 1.2 of the DSU, the rules and procedures of
the DSU, including those contained in Article 22 , apply to disputes brought under the covered
agreements "subject to such special or additiona l rules and procedures on dispute settlement … as are
identified in Appendix 2." Australia notes that both Articles 7.8 and 7.9 of the SCM Agreement are
listed in Appendix 2 to the DSU as "special or a dditional rules and procedures" on dispute settlement
contained in the covered agreements. These Articl es do not preclude the application of Article 22 of
the DSU. Indeed, Article 22 rights would logica lly ensue from findings of inconsistency with
Articles 7.8 and 7.9 of the SCM Agreement,
14 which are findings that are entirely within the Panel's
mandate to make.

21. Australia therefore submits that the Panel s hould refuse the request of the United States for
preliminary rulings with respect to Brazil's clai m concerning the United States' failure to take
measures to comply within the period 21 Septem ber 2005 – 1 August 2006, as this could diminish
Brazil's rights under Article 22 of the DSU.

12 United States First Written Submission, para. 51.
14 Australia notes that this position is consistent with the actions of both Brazil and the United States
with respect to Brazil's request for authorization to take countermeasures pursuant to Article 22.2 of the DSU
and Article 7.9 of the SCM (WT/DS267/26) and the United States' request for arbitration under Article 22.6 of
the DSU and Article 7.10 of the SCM Agreement (WT/DS267/27).

B. C
LAIMS CONCERNING EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES (EXPORT SUBSIDIES)

22. Brazil alleges that despite changes introdu ced by the United States on 1 July 2005 to the
General Sales Manager 102 (GSM 102) export cred it guarantee programme, that programme and the
guarantees issued thereunder continue to constitute export subsidies under Articles 1, 3.1(a) and 3.2 of
the SCM Agreement, as well as under item (j) of the Illustra tive List of Export Subsidies included as
Annex 1 to the SCM Agreement ("Illustrative List"). Further, since 1 July 2005, Brazil alleges that the
United States has applied those export subsidies in a manner that results in circumvention of the
United States' export subsidy commitments for unsch eduled products and three scheduled products –
rice, pig meat and poultry meat, in violation of Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture.15
Brazil argues that the Panel should only consider its cl aim under item (j) in the Illustrative List in the
alternative, if the Panel finds that GSM 102 ex port credit guarantees are not export subsidies under
Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement. The United States argues that the analysis of the
revised GSM 102 programme should proceed from item (j) of the Illustrative List.

23. Australia submits that as the complaining part y, Brazil has the right to identify a measure as
an export subsidy according to a particular definiti on (for example, pursuant to Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a)
of the SCM Agreement) and then to argue under another definition "in the alternative". Australia
therefore submits that the Panel should address the argument made by Brazil relating to item (j) "in
the alternative" after the principal claim under Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.16

24. Australia further submits that even if the United States' approach were to be adopted, a
finding by the Panel that the GSM 102 programme, as amended, did not fall within the terms of
item (j) of the Illustrative List would not necessarily be determinative of whether the GSM 102
programme otherwise constituted an export subs idy under the relevant provisions of the
SCM Agreement. In other words, an a contrario interpretation of item (j) is not permissible
17, and the
Panel would not be precluded by such a finding from examining the consistency of the revised
GSM 102 with Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.18 As has been recognized in a number
of proceedings, the Illustrative List is just that – it is a purely illustrative list and does not, as the
United States acknowledges, purport to be an exhaustive list of export subsidies.19

C. C LAIMS CONCERNING ACTIONABLE SUBSIDIES

25. Australia submits that in relation to Brazi l's actionable subsidies claims, the Panel should
consider whether the United States, by repealing the Step 2 payment programme, but maintaining the
two other price-contingent subsidies (payment s under the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programmes), has taken appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects of the subsidies or to
withdraw the subsidies, within the meaning of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement in accordance with
the DSB's recommendations and rulings with respect to those subsidies.

15 Brazil First Written Submission, paras. 348-350.
 16 In US – FSC, the Appellate Body at para. 89 found no legal error in the Panel adopting the order in
which the European Communities as claimant had pres ented its arguments under Articles 1 and 3 of the
SCM Agreement, and rejected the United States' assertion that the analysis should have proceeded from
footnote 59 to item (e) of the Illustrative List.
17 Korea – Vessels, para. 7.207. In that case, the Panel foun d that Korea had failed to demonstrate that
item (j) was applicable as an affirmative defence for th ose measures that were found to be in violation of
Article 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement: Ibid. para. 7.202. In reaching its conclusions, the Panel adopted the
approach taken by the Panel in Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 - Canada I) at paras. 6.37 ff.
18 In Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada I), the Panel acknowledged that it was legally possible
that there existed prohibited export subsidies within the meaning of Article 3.1(a) that did not fall within the
scope of Annex I: see para. 6.30.
19 Ibid.

26. Australia recalls that the Panel found that:

the effect of the mandatory price-contingent United States subsidy measures –
marketing loan programme payments, u ser marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA
[marketing loan assistance] payments and CCP [counter-cyclical payment] payments
– is significant price suppression in the same world market within the meaning of
Articles 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement constituting serious prejudice to the interests of
Brazil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement.
20

27. In the light of this conclusion, the Pane l recalled that, pursuant to Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement "upon adoption of this report, the United States is under an obligation to 'take
appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or … withdraw the subsidy'". 21

28. Australia notes that the United States eliminated the Step 2 payments in response to the DSB's
recommendations and rulings. The other two "manda tory price-contingent United States subsidy
measures" that were the subject of the Panel's fi ndings remain in existence. Australia therefore
submits that in so far as these measures still exist, the Panel may properly consider whether the United
States has fulfilled its obligations under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.

29. Australia recalls that in making the findings referred to above, the original Panel examined
each price-contingent subsidy measure in turn
22 and made a number of findings relating to the effect
of each measure individually, before considering th e collective operation of those measures. It is
clear from the Panel's analysis that each of the pr ice-contingent measures individually were found to
have a trade-distorting effect. 23 With respect to the marketing loan programme payments, the Panel
stated that:

We have no doubt that the payments stim ulate production and exports and result in
lower world market prices than would preva il in their absence. Moreover, the text of
the measure indicates that the payments are mandatory, where certain market
conditions prevail.
24

 The Panel further found that:

… the structure, design and operation of th e marketing loan programme has enhanced
production and trade-distorting effects. The payments stimulate production and
exports and result in lower world market prices than would prevail in their absence.
25

 On counter-cyclical payments , the Panel concluded that:

… CCPs may influence production decisions indirectly by reducing total and per unit
revenue risk associated with price vari ability in some situations … We have
confirmed a strong positive relationship be tween upland cotton (base acre) producers
receiving annual payments and upland cotton production. Moreover, the payments are
mandatory, under certain market conditions.
26

21 Ibid., para. 8.3(d).
22 Ibid., para. 7.1290.
23 Ibid., paras. 7.1290–1303.
24 Ibid., para. 7.1291 (footnote omitted).
25 Ibid., para. 7.1295.
26 Ibid., para. 7.1302.

 Australia submits that these findings re main relevant to the present proceedings.

30. Australia therefore submits that the present Panel should, as part of its consideration of
whether the United States has complied with its oblig ations under Article 7.8, determine whether the
continued existence of the two price-contingent subs idy measures that were the subject of the original
Panel's finding cause significant price suppression constituting serious prejudice to the interests
of Brazil.

31. In other words, the Panel should examine whet her repeal of the Step 2 programme together
with the continued existence of the other two pr ice-contingent subsidy measures resulted in full
compliance with the United States' obligation to remove the adverse e ffects or withdraw the subsidies
found by the Panel to exist with respect to all three price-contingent subsidies. Australia submits that
this is consistent with the approach that Brazil has taken in this dispute.

CONCLUSION

A. Scope of Article 21.5 proceedings - Requests for preliminary rulings

32. For the reasons set out in this subm ission, Australia requests that the Panel:

(a) refuse the United States' request that the Panel reject Brazil's claims relating to GSM
102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat;

(b) refuse the United States' requests for pr eliminary rulings concerning the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes; and

(c) refuse the request of the United States for preliminary rulings with respect to Brazil's
claim concerning the United States' failure to take measures to comply within the
period 21 September 2005 – 1 August 2006.

B. Claims concerning export credit guarantees (export subsidies)

33. For the reasons set out in this submission, Australia submits that the Panel should address the
argument made by Brazil relating to item (j) "in the alternative" after the principal claim under
Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.

34. If, however, the Panel were to adopt the order of analysis proposed by the United States, a
finding by the Panel that the GSM 102 programme, as amended, did not fall within the terms of
item (j) of the Illustrative List would not preclude the Panel from examining the consistency of the
revised GSM 102 with Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.

C. Claims concerning actionable subsidies

35. For the reasons set out in this submission, Australia submits that in so far as the price-
contingent subsidy measures still exist, the Panel may properly consider whether the United States has
fulfilled its obligations under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement . As part of its consideration of
whether the United States has complied with its obligations under Article 7.8, Australia further
submits that the Panel should determine whether th e continued existence of the two price-contingent
subsidies that were the subject of the original Panel's finding cause significant price suppression
constituting serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil.

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. Canada agrees with Brazil that the Unite d States has failed to fully implement the
recommendations and rulings of the Dispute Settleme nt Body (DSB), and that the United States
continues to provide subsidies that cause and thr eaten to cause serious prejudice within the meaning
of Articles 5 and 6 of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement )
and Article XVI:1 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT 1994).

2. Canada makes submissions with respect to tw o issues: the U.S. contention that marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes should not properly be the subject of this proceeding;
and the standard for threat of serious prejudice under Article 5(c) and footnote 13 of the
SCM Agreement, and Article XVI:1 of the GATT 1994.

3. On the first issue, the United States argues th at as an Article 21.5 proceeding applies only to
"measures taken to comply with the recommendati ons and rulings" of the DSB, the panel cannot
consider unchanged measures. This fails to recognize that a panel in an Article 21.5 proceeding is
required to consider the context, and not merely individual measures, when determining compliance.
The Panel here cannot properly evaluate U.S. co mpliance without considering the effect of the
U.S. failure to do anything about the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes.

4. On the question of "threat", Canada submits that the ordinary meaning of the term, read in the
context of the SCM Agreement and considered in the light of that agreement's object and purpose,
supports this finding. By contrast, there is nothing in the SCM Agreement to support the
U.S. contention that "a clearly foreseen and imminent likelihood of future serious prejudice", such as
that required in Article 15.7 of the SCM Agreement , is required for a finding of threat of serious
prejudice under Article 5(c) and footnote 13. The notion of threat is a flexible one, sufficiently
flexible to address programmes that give rise to a constant and high probability of support to
U.S. farmers, which in turn constitutes a permanent threat of serious prejudice.

II. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

5. Canada appreciates th e opportunity to participate in this proceeding under Article 21.5 of the
Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU), having
participated in previous proceedings before the original panel and Appellate Body.
1

A. F
INDINGS OF THE PANEL AND APPELLATE BODY

6. On 3 March 2005, the Appellate Body upheld the original panel's finding, inter alia , that
particular U.S. measures set out in the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (FSRI Act)
were subsidies causing adverse effects, contrary to Articles 5 and 6 of the SCM Agreement.

7. Specifically, the Appellate Body upheld the or iginal panel's finding in respect of so-called
"price-contingent subsidies".
2 These subsidies – marketing loan programme payments, user
marketing (Step 2) payments, marketing loss assi stance payments and counter-cyclical payments –
were found to result in significant price suppression within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the
SCM Agreement, and thus constitute serious prejudice within the meaning of Article 5(c).

1 United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton , Report of the Panel, WT/DS267/R, adopted
21 March 2005 [" United States – Upland Cotton , Panel Report"] and United States – Subsidies on Upland
Cotton, Report of the Appellate Body, WT/DS267/AB/R, adopted 21 March 2005 [" United States – Upland
Cotton, Appellate Body Report"].
2 United States – Upland Cotton, Appellate Body Report, at para. 763(c)(i).

B. M EASURES TAKEN BY THE UNITED STATES

8. The United States claims that it has comp lied with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB. On 8 February 2006, the United States announced the repeal, effective as of 1 August 2006,
of the Step 2 payment programme for upland cotto n, one of the programmes found to be causing
serious prejudice. This is the only measure th e United States has taken to comply with the
recommendations and rulings respecting serious prejudice.
3 The United States argues that the original
panel was considering the collective effect of these payments and not the programmes in themselves.
As a result, the United States argues, Brazil's clai m that U.S. measures taken to comply in some
respects do not exist, and to the extent they do exist, are not consistent with the Agreement on
Agriculture and the SCM Agreement, are without basis.4

III. ARGUMENT

9. Brazil argues that the U.S. counter-cyclical and marketing loan payment programmes have an
ongoing, pernicious effect on the world cotton market, which arises in part from the threat that these
programmes will provide seemingly-unlim ited support to U.S. cotton producers. At issue is whether
these programmes (under which payments made were found to be mandatory price-contingent
subsidies causing significant price suppr ession, thus constituting serious prejudice) 5 threaten to cause
serious prejudice simply by virtue of their existence.

10. The standard to be applied for a determinati on of threat of serious prejudice is not necessarily,
as the United States has argued, a "clearly fores een and imminent likelihood of future serious
prejudice" akin to that in Article 15.7 of the SCM Agreement.
6 Canada submits that there is no single
test for establishing the existence of a "threat". Rather, "threat" may be analyzed both as a temporal
concept as in Article 15.7, and as a probability of occurrence. Certain subsidy programmes, by their
very nature, give rise to a constant likelihood of sup port that results in a permanent threat of serious
prejudice. This stems from the fact that when cer tain economic conditions ex ist – conditions that we
know will re-occur simply by virtue of the vagaries of the market and fact that the United States itself
may at its discretion set the threshold for payments – the subsidies will necessarily be distributed.

11. In this regard, there is no uncertainty. Th e marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes
create a constant likelihood of suppor t for U.S. farmers, thus having the very real potential to distort
international trade. These programmes were found by the original panel and the Appellate Body to be
subsidies causing serious prejudice. And these programmes must pay to producers when certain
conditions exist. If such programmes do not constitut e a threat of serious prejudice, it is difficult to
conceive of any subsidy that could have the potenti al to distort international trade and constitute a
threat of serious prejudice to the interests of other Members.

3Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 , U.S. Public Law 109-171, Section 1103, online:
http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/publaw/109publ.html. See also First Written Submission of the
United States (21.5), 15 December 2006, at paras. 1-11 ["U.S. First Written Submission (21.5)"].
4 U.S. First Written Submission (21.5), at paras. 3-10.
5 United States – Upland Cotton , Appellate Body Report, at para. 763(c)(i), upholding the original
panel's finding, at para. 8.1(g)(i).
6 Second Written Submission of the United Stat es, September 30, 2003, ["U.S. Second Written
Submission"] at para. 115.

IV. LEGAL ANALYSIS

A. S
COPE OF PROCEEDING

12. The United States argues that the programm es are outside the scope of this proceeding
because Article 21.5 applies only to "measures ta ken to comply with the recommendations and
rulings" of the DSB. As the United States admits that it has not taken any measures to change these
programmes, "Brazil may not in these Article 21. 5 proceedings again make these claims against
unchanged measures".
7

13. The U.S. reading of Article 21.5 ignores the fa ct that the scope of an Article 21.5 proceeding
mandates scrutiny of the overall effect of the measures taken to comply. A panel must "assess
measures taken to comply in their full context, in cluding how such measures are introduced into, and
how they function within, the particular system of the implementing Member".
8 That context here
necessarily includes the continued existence of meas ures the original panel and Appellate Body found
to be causing serious prejudice.

14. Significantly, the Appellate Body has also found that measures at issue in an Article 21.5
proceeding could encompass not only positive acts, but also omissions .
9 The United States admits
that it has done nothing respecting marketing loan payment and counter-cyclical payment
programmes to remove the adverse effects or withdraw these subsidies, but that the repeal of Step 2
has been sufficient to constitute compliance with the serious prejudice recommendations and rulings
of the DSB.
10 The United States argues that the original pa nel was considering the collective effect of
U.S. subsidy programmes, and that it need do nothing with respect to the marketing loan payment and
counter-cyclical payment programmes. Yet Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement states that a finding of
serious prejudice requires the non-complying Member to take appropriate steps to remove the adverse
effect or withdraw the subsidy. The United Stat es bears the burden of demonstrating that the adverse
effects no longer exist as a result of taking no actio n to modify or withdraw the two programmes at
issue and this Panel has clear authority to consider this lack of action in determining whether there is
indeed compliance under Article 21.5.

B. O
RDINARY MEANING OF "THREAT" IN PART III OF THE SCM AGREEMENT

15. Article 5 of the SCM Agreement prohibits adverse effects to the interests of other Members
through the use of a subsidy; one such adverse e ffect is serious prejudice. Footnote 13 in turn
specifies that "'serious prejudice to the interests of another Member' is used in this Agreement in the
same sense as it is used in paragr aph 1 of Article XVI of the GATT 1994, and includes threat of
serious prejudice" (emphasis added). Article XVI:1 makes clear that a Member can cause, and also
threaten, serious prejudice.

16. While the concept of threat may be expressed in various ways, it concerns an indication of
something undesirable coming.
11 The use of the verb "threaten" in Article XVI:1 of the GATT 1994
indicates that the very existence of a programme, a nd not necessarily its application, could constitute
an infringement of that provision. As the Appella te Body in this case has observed, the ordinary

7 U.S. First Written Submission (21.5), at para. 48.
8 United States – Final Countervailing Duty Determination with Respect to Certain Softwood Lumber
from Canada, Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 , Report of the Appellate Body, WT/DS257/AB/RW, adopted
20 December 2005, at para. 67.
9 Ibid., at para. 67.
10 See U.S. First Written Submission (21.5), at paras. 1-11.
11 Shorter Oxford English Dictionary, 5th ed., W.R. Trumble, A. Stevenson (eds.) (Oxford University
Press, 2002, at 3251 ("threat").

meaning of "threaten" does not connote certainty, but relates to the likelihood of something happening
in the future.12

17. Further analysis of the text of the SCM Agreement supports this ordinary meaning. Article 5
prohibits the use of a subsidy to the extent that such use causes, or th reatens to cause, serious
prejudice to the interests of another Member. "Subsidy" is defined in Article 1 of the
SCM Agreement; a subsidy is deemed to exist if "a government practice involves […] potential direct
transfers of funds or liabilities (e.g., loan gua rantees)" and a benefit is thereby conferred.
13 In other
words, the existence of a programme that has the potential to transfer funds, whether or not an actual
transfer occurs, constitutes a subsid y pursuant to Article 1 of the SCM Agreement.14 It follows that
such a potential transfer could constitute a threat of serious prejudice.

18. The opening phrase of Article XVI:1 of the GA TT 1994, refers to "any contracting party
[that] grants or maintains any subsidy". As that article makes clear, it is not only the actual grant of a
subsidy that allows for serious prejudice to be found. Merely maintaining a programme that
mandates payments deemed to be a subsidy causi ng adverse effects may therefore cause serious
prejudice, and indeed will cause serious prejudice when the specified market conditions arise.

19. Considering this, the U.S. proposition that the standard for threat of serious prejudice should
be imported from Article 15.7 cannot be correct. Article 15.7 of the SCM Agreement concerns a
different legal concept, namely the threat of materi al injury. Where a standard from another article or
other agreement is to be used, the SCM Agreement identifies that standard.

20. This is evident through an ex amination of the notes to Article 5. Footnote 11 in Article 5(a),
for example, states that "[t]he term 'injury to the domestic industry' is used here in the same sense as it
is used in Part V". Footnote 12 in paragraph (b) stat es that "[t]he term 'nullification or impairment' is
used in this Agreement in the sa me sense as it is used in the relevant provisions of GATT 1994, and
the existence of such nullification or impairment shall be established in accordance with the practice
of application of these provisions". Footnote 13, as quoted above, also incorporates a definition from
the GATT 1994 into the SCM Agreement.

21. Neither Article 5 or 6 of the SCM Agreement set out a specific standard that is to be applied in
an analysis of threat of serious prejudice. In other WTO agreements, as with Article 15.7, the
standard applied when considering whether a threat of a particular deleterious result exists is set out in
clear terms. For example, threat of se rious injury in Article 4(1)(b) of the Safeguards Agreement
means "serious injury that is clearly imminent […] based on facts and not merely on allegation,
conjecture or remote possibility". The Antidumping Agreement specifies that "[a] determination of a
threat of material injury shall be based on facts and not merely on allegation, conjecture or remote
possibility. The change in circumstances which would create a situation in which the dumping would
cause injury must be clearly foreseen and imminent" (emphasis added).

22. These examples support the conclusion that one must look to the specific language and
context of an agreement to determine the standard to be applied to a given analysis. What is clear is
that the scope of the term "threat" in Articles 5 and 6 of the SCM Agreement may be considerably
broader than that contemplated in Article 15.7.

12 United States - Upland Cotton, Appellate Body Report, at para. 704.
13 SCM Agreement, subparagraph 1.1(a)(1)(i) [emphasis added].
14 As we understand the U.S. measures at issue, the terms of the "potential direct transfer" will
necessarily result in a benef it to the recipient because th at recipient would receive a financial contribution on
terms more favourable than would otherwise be available to the recipient in the market. The nature of this
benefit may vary, but could take the form of financial security provided by the very existence of the
programmes.

23. This is consistent with th e interpretation given by panels and the Appellate Body to other
"threats". The Appellate Body reviewed the meaning of "threat of circumvention" in the context of
the Agreement on Agriculture in this case.
15 It found that while "threaten" had a variety of possible
meanings, Article 10.1 of the Agreement on Agriculture "is concerned not with injury, but rather with
'circumvention'". Given the ordinary meaning of "t hreaten", the phrase 'threaten[] to lead to ...
circumvention' would imply that the export subsidies ar e applied in a manner that is 'likely to' lead to
circumvention of a WTO Member 's export subsidy commitments. 16 The Appellate Body did not
import the standard of "clearly foreseen and imminent" into the standard for "threat" in the Agreement
on Agriculture.17 In fact, it emphasized that "threat" did not connote a sense of certainty and refers
only to a likelihood of something happening.

24. That the meaning of threat is flexible is supported by two decisions concerning the
consistency of the EC's sugar programme w ith Article XVI of the GATT 1994. In both EC – Sugar
(Australia) and EC – Sugar (Brazil), the panels found that the EC ha d structured its sugar programme
so as to constitute a permanent source of uncertainty in world sugar markets, which given the facts of
those cases, gave rise to a threat of seri ous prejudice in the sense of Article XVI:1.
18 Key to these
findings was the lack of pre-established limitations on production, price or the amounts of exports in
the Community system, very similar problems faced here by competitors to U.S. cotton farmers.19

25. It is not only the terms of the SCM Agreement read in context, but also the Agreement's very
object and purpose that demonstrates that the standard for threat of serious prejudice may be distinct
from that of threat in the case of material injury. In Canada – Aircraft, the panel noted that the object
and purpose of the SCM Agreement could be summarised as "the establishment of multilateral
disciplines 'on the premise that some forms of governme nt intervention distort international trade, [or]
have the potential to distort [international trade]'".
20

26. As noted, the marketing loan and counter-cycli cal programmes have the very real potential to
distort international trade, and preventing the seri ous prejudice that will be caused when payments are
made under these programmes is precisely what was intended by including Article 5 in the
SCM Agreement. In its report, the original panel found that Part III of the SCM Agreement and
Article XVI:1 of the GATT 1994 "expressly provides Members with a right to take action against
serious prejudice which may not yet have occurred".
21 Further, the original panel found nothing in the
text indicating that the right to take action against serious prejudice that may not yet have occurred is
limited to a window of subsidies provided in the past but which cause serious prejudice in the future.
If a Member were unable to bring an action against subsidies until these were actually paid, the Panel

15 United States – Upland Cotton, Appellate Body Report, at paras. 696-719.
16 Ibid., at para. 704.
17 Similarly, in India – Quantitative Restrictions on Imports of Agricultural, Textile and Industrial
Products, Report of the Panel, WT/DS90/R, adopted 22 September 1999, India argued that the "threat of […] a
serious decline in [a Member's] monetary reserves" in the context of Article XVIII:9 of GATT 1994 did not
require an imminent threat of a serious decline in reserves, as do es Article XII:2(a). In this regard, the Panel
stated at para. 5.197 that their interpretation would not "introduce an additional condition to Article XVIII:9", by
introducing the condition of imminence into the concept of "threat" in that Article.
18 See European Communities – Refunds on Exports of Sugar , GATT Panel Report, adopted
6 November 1979, BISD 26S/290, at para. (h) of conclusion [" EC – Sugar Exports I (Australia) "] and
European Communities – Refunds on Exports of Sugar – Complaint by Brazil , GATT Panel Report, adopted
10 November 1980, BISD 27S/69, at para. (h) of conclusion ["EC – Sugar Exports (Brazil)"].
19 Brazil, in Section 8 of its First Written Submission, explains how those same factors are present in
the U.S. programmes at issue and results in a permanen t source of uncertainty in the world cotton market.
Canada agrees with that analysis.
20 Canada – Measures Affecting the Export of Civilian Aircraft , Report of the Panel, WT/DS70/R,
adopted 20 August 1999, at para. 9.119 [emphasis added].
21 United States – Upland Cotton, Panel Report, at para. 7.191.

reasoned, it would undermine the object in Part III of preventing adverse effects to a Member's
interests.

27. The subsidy programmes at issue are mandatory when certain events take place, in this case
when upland cotton prices reach a certain level. If a Member were obliged to wait until a payment
was actually made to bring a complaint, then th e adverse effects of the subsidy could never be
prevented and the ability to defend against a "threat " of serious prejudice would be rendered inutile.
The original panel's finding, that Part III of the SCM Agreement and Article XVI of the GATT 1994
must allow a Member to prevent the serious prejudi ce caused by the application of programmes such
as marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments, is consistent with the inclusion of the words
"maintain" in GATT Article XVI:1 and "potential" in Article 1.1(a)(1)(i) of the SCM Agreement.
22
28. Whether as a consequence of the very architecture of the SCM Agreement – Part III concerns
the adverse effects of subsidies in the context of multilateral action by Members, whereas Part V
concerns the actions of domestic investigating authorities in countervailing duty actions – it is clear on
its face that the standard for threat of serious prejudice in Part III is not circumscribed by a "clearly
foreseen and imminent" standard. 23 And, in Canada's view, that "clearly foreseen and imminent"
standard should not and indeed cannot legally be imputed to Part III simply because the word "threat"
appears there.

V. CONCLUSION

29. Accordingly, Canada respectfully requests th at the Panel find that the United States continues
to use subsidies that threaten to cause serious prejudice, through its marketing loan and counter-
cyclical programmes, in violation of Articles 5 and 6 of the SCM Agreement.

22 See paras. 17-18 above on the use of "potential" and "maintain" in these articles.
23 A legal term may be set out in various places in a WTO agreement without having the same
meaning. See, for example, the Appellate Body's analysis of the term "like products" in European Communities
– Measures Affecting the Prohibition of Asbestos and Asbestos-Containing Products, Report of the Appellate
Body, WT/DS135/AB/R, adopted 5 April 2001. The Appellate Body reasoned at paras. 88-89 that as a term
must be interpreted in light of the context and of the object and purpose of the provision at issue, it follows that
the meaning of "like products" in Article III:4 need not be identical to, e.g., the meaning given the same term in
Article III:2.

TABLE OF CASES

Short Title Full Case Title and Citation
US – Upland Cotton or the "Appellate
Body Report"
Appellate Body Report, United States – Subsidies on
Upland Cotton, WT/DS267/AB/R, adopted 21 March 2005.
US – Upland Cotton or the "Panel
Report"
Panel Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton ,
WT/DS267/R, and Corr.1, adopted 21 March 2005,
modified by Appellate Body report, WT/DS267/AB/R
Brazil – Aircraft
(Article 21.5 – Canada)
Panel Report, Brazil – Export Financing Programme for
Aircraft – Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
WT/DS46/RW, adopted 4 August 2000, as modified by the
Appellate Body Report, WT /DS46/AB/RW, DSR 2000:IX,
4093
Canada – Aircraft Appellate Body Report, Canada – Measures Affecting the
Export of Civilian Aircraft , WT/DS70/AB/R, adopted
20 August 1999, DSR 1999:III, 1377
Canada – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Brazil) Panel Report, Canada – Measures Affecting the Export of
Civilian Aircraft – Recourse by Brazil to Article 21.5 of the
DSU, WT/DS70/RW, adopted 4 August 2000, as modified
by the Appellate Body Re port, WT/DS70/AB/RW,
DSR 2000:IX, 4315
EC – CVDs on DRAMs Panel Report, European Communities – Countervailing
Measures on Dynamic Random Access Memory Chips
from Korea, WT/DS299/R, adopted 3 August 2005
Mexico – Corn Syrup (Article 21.5 – US) Appellate Body Report, Mexico – Anti-Dumping
Investigation of High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) from the
United States – Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the
United States , WT/DS132/AB/RW, adopted
21 November 2001, DSR 2001:XIII, 6675
United States – Oil Country Tubular
Goods Sunset Reviews (Article 21.5 –
Argentina)
Panel Report, United States – Sunset Reviews of Anti-
Dumping Measures on Oil C ountry Tubular Goods from
Argentina – Recourse by Argentina to Article 21.5 of the
DSU, WT/DS268/RW [not yet adopted]
US – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5 –
Canada)
Appellate Body Report, United States – Investigation of the
International Trade Commission in Softwood Lumber from
Canada – Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
WT/DS277/AB/RW, adopted 9 May 2006

[O]ur countries are not asking for charity, neither
are we requesting preferential treatment or
additional aid. We solely de mand that, in conformity
with WTO basic principles, the free market rule be
applied. Our producers are ready to face competition
on the world cotton market – under the condition that
it is not distorted by subsidies.

H.E. President Blaise Compaoré of Burkina Faso
1

I. INTRODUCTION

A. B
ACKGROUND

1. On 21 March 2005, the Dispute Settlement Body (the "DSB") adopted the reports of the panel
and the Appellate Body in the dispute United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton .
2 These reports
concerned a case brought by Brazil regarding vari ous subsidies granted to United States cotton
producers. In accordance with the findings in these reports and the DSB's recommendations and
rulings, the United States was obliged, inter alia, under Article 7.8 of the Agreement on Subsidies and
Countervailing Measures (the " SCM Agreement ") either to withdraw subsidies that were found to
cause serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement or to remove the adverse effects caused by those subsidies.3

2. On 18 August 2006, pursuant to Article 21.5 of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures
Governing the Settlement of Disputes (the "DSU"), Brazil requested that the DSB establish a panel to
determine whether the United States had complied w ith the rulings and recommendations of the DSB.
The Panel was established upon Brazil's second request on 28 September 2006, and composed by the
Director-General on 25 October 2006. 4 Argentina, Australia, Canada , Chad, China, the European
Communities, India, Japan, New Zealand, and Tha iland reserved their rights to participate in the
Panel's proceedings as third parties.5

3. Chad appreciates the opportunity to present its views to the Panel in this written submission
and at the meeting of the Panel with third parties, currently scheduled for 27 February 2007.

B. C
HAD'S INTEREST IN THESE PROCEEDINGS

4. Chad is one of the very few least-developed countries ("LDCs") to have participated in
a WTO dispute settlement proceeding since the or ganization was established in 1995. Chad
participated in the original dis pute in this case, and continues to participate in these proceedings,
because of the critical importance of the cotton sect or to Chad's economy and the ongoing damage to
that sector caused by U.S. subsidies.

5. Chad notes that this dispute has arisen in the broader context of the commitment of WTO
Members in the July Framework and reiterated at the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference to address
cotton "ambitiously, expeditiously and specifically " with a view to achieving more ambitious

1 Address to the Trade Negotiations Committee, 10 June 2003, www.wto.org.
2 Panel Report; Appellate Body Report.
3 Panel Report, paras. 8.2(g)(i), 8.3(d).
4 WT/DS267/31.
5 Ibid.

reductions of trade-distorting domes tic subsidies for cotton production. 6 While that commitment was
made without prejudice to actions of the Dispute Settlement Body, it provides important context to
guide the Panel's consideration of the issues before it. The protection of Chad's cotton industry is also
consistent with the fulfilment of many of the Mille nnium Development Goals, in that it can assist in
reducing poverty, improving health and reducing child mortality, and developing a global partnership
for development, based on a rules-based trading system that addresses the special needs of least-
developed countries, such as Chad.

6. As Chad has reiterated in the context of its Trade Policy Review to be held on
22-24 January 2007, cotton production in Chad affe cts approximately 3 million people, out of a total
population of about 8.1 million.
7 The cotton-producing region of Chad is located in the southern part
of the country, in an area covering about 127,000 square kilometres. Cotton is generally grown on
small farms of usually no more than one or two hectares by farmers who rely on rain for irrigation and
animals for traction when working the cotton fields during the sowing season. 8 Cotton exports are
Chad's third largest export, accounting for 5 per cent of GDP, and representing 60 per cent of all non-
oil export earnings. 9 Cotton is, therefore, one of Chad's main sources of income, and sustains the
livelihood of a large portion of its population.10

7. As Chad explained in its report for its fort hcoming Trade Policy Review, cotton is a strategic
product that contributes not only to economic development but also social development.
11 Produced
rurally on small farms, its positive effects on reduc ing poverty are felt most in those regions. Thus,
cotton is "not only a source of revenue for these ru ral regions but also a tool for modernisation,
diversification, and the financing of social activ ities and other needs of rural peasant societies". 12
These observations corroborate the findings of the Overseas Development Institute, which notes that:

In a low-income economy where most of th e poor live in rural areas, income from
export crops is one of the best short-term measures to alleviate poverty. Smallholder
cash-crop producers … spread [ ] the benefits to other poor households. Cotton is
relatively labour intensive and may also ge nerate employment. In African countries,

6 See Doha Work Programme – Ministerial Declaration Adopted on 18 December 2005,
WT/MIN(05)/DEC, para. 11.
7 Trade Policy Review of Chad, Report by Govern ment, WT/TPR/G/174, 11 December 2006, para. 28.
According to the World Bank, there are roughly 400,000 farm households in the cotton-producing areas of
Chad, of which about 60 per cent grow cotton. An average farm household has 5 to 6 people. See World Bank,
Chad Cotton Sector Reform: A Case Study on Poverty and Social Impact Analysis, available at
http://poverty.worldbank.org/files/13138_chadcottonreform.pdf

8 See Third Party Submission of Benin and Third Party Submission of Chad, Annex E-4 to the Panel
Report.
9 Trade Policy Review of Chad, Report by Govern ment, WT/TPR/G/174, 11 December 2006, para. 28.
See also P. Fortucci, The Contributions of Cotton to Economy and Food Security in Developing Countries ,
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (July 2002).
10 As the WTO Secretariat has recently reported, "[a] griculture, mainly livestock breeding and cotton,
is an activity of vital importance for Chad". Trade Policy Review of Chad, Repo rt by the Secretariat,
WT/TPR/S/174, 11 December 2006, pp. ix – x. Similarl y, a United States agency has acknowledged the vital
role played by cotton in Chad's ag ro-based economy: "over 80% of Chad's population relies on subsistence
farming and livestock raising for its livelihood… Cotton, cattle, and gum arabic provide the bulk of Chad's non-
oil export earnings". See The World Factbook, available at
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/cd.html.
11 Trade Policy Review, Report of Chad, WT/TPR/G/174, 11 December 2006, para. 28.
12 Ibid. (unofficial translation from the French).

cotton production is concentrated in poorer regions so higher cotton incomes
contribute to poverty reduction.
13
8. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world. In the United Nations Development
Programme's Human Development Report of 2005, Chad is ranked as the 173 rd out of 177 countries
based on human development indicators that include life expectancy at birth, the infant mortality rate,
and the maternal mortality ratio. 14 In these circumstances, it is imperative that the cotton farmers of
Chad reap the benefits of the implementation of the DSB's rulings and recommendations in this
dispute by the United States. Proper compliance would stabilise and increase the incomes of Chad's
cotton farmers and help to develop the economy of Chad as a whole.

9. Full implementation by the United States of the DSB's recommendations and rulings in this
case would have very significant benefits for Chad and the other Sub-Saharan African cotton-
producing countries (Chad, Benin, Mali and Burkina Faso together comprise the "Cotton Four" or
"C-4" countries). For example, a recent World Bank project study by Kym Anderson and Ernesto
Valenzuela titled "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues"
15 specifically estimates what
is at stake in terms of cotton production, trade, and economic welfare in S ub-Saharan Africa were the
United States to comply fully with the rulings and recommendations of the DSB and remove the
adverse effects of the non-repealed programmes. 16 The study finds that the removal of all cotton
subsidies and import tariffs would boost global economic welfare by $283 million per year and would
raise the price of cotton in international markets by almost 13 per cent. The authors note that:

what is striking about the welfare effects is their distribution among developing
countries… [e]specially noteworthy is the relatively large benefit bestowed on
Sub-Saharan Africa of $147 million per year. Th is is driven by an estimated increase
in Sub-Saharan African cotton output and value added of nearly one-third, and in the
real value of the region's cotton exports of more than 50 per cent… That would raise
Sub-Saharan Africa's share of global cotton exports from 12 to 17 per cent, and the
share of all developing countries from 52 to 72 per cent.
17
10. The potential impact of these welfare effects on incomes for cotton farmers in Chad cannot be
understated: "[c]rucially they would rise by a huge 30 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa and around
40 per cent in West Africa in particular – more than three-quarters of which is due to cuts in domestic
support programs".18 The World Bank Trade Note 27 of 30 March 2006 suggests that similar effects
would be expected in the specific context of US compliance with the panel and Appellate Body
Reports, stating that "the national welfare gains and boost to cotton farmers' incomes from partial
reform are still concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia".19

11. At the International Conference on Cott on: The Next Steps for Africa held in
Washington D.C. on 26 October 2006
20, Professor Daniel Sumner presented findings regarding the

13 Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Annual Report 2005, page 10, available at
http://www.odi.org.uk/annual_report/ar2005/ODI_AR2005.pdf
14 Human Development Report 2005, published for the United Nations Development Programme.
15 Kym Anderson and Ernesto Valenzuela, "WTO's Do ha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues",
Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington DC, February 2006 (the "Anderson and Valenzuela
study").
16 Ibid., pages 1–2.
17 Ibid., page 7.
18 Ibid., page 9.
19 World Bank Trade Note 27, 30 March 2006, page 4.
20 Daniel Sumner, Farm Programs and the Economies of LDC Cotton, Slide Show presented at the
International Conference on Cotton: The Next Steps for Africa, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2006. Available

impact of the US subsidies on the C-4 countries. He found that the average gain from elimination of
US subsidies on cotton would be a world price increase of about $0.05 per pound, which he calculates
would "raise an annual revenue of about $75 to $100 million or more in the C-4 countries alone". 21 A
World Bank economist has concluded that "the pr ice prospects for cotton (and consequently the
export shares of low-cost producers, including many African countries, could be improved
considerably if developed countries substantially reduced or eliminated support and if the benefits of
world price changes are fully transmitted to producers . . ."22
12. All of these changes would have an extrem ely positive effect on both the cotton sector and the
economy as a whole in the C-4 countries. The C-4 countries' share of world cotton exports decreased
from 10.05 per cent in 1998 to 8.57 per cent in 2002. It has continued to decrease since the original
panel rulings to 7.35 per cent in 2005.
23 Chad's own share of cotton exports shows a similar trend,
decreasing from 1.23 per cent in 1998 to 0.99 per cent in 2002 and 0.74 per cent in 2005. 24 These
trends are in stark contrast to the United States' continuing increasing share of world cotton exports,
which has grown from 18.27 per cent in 1998 to 39.24 per cent in 2002 and 39.72 per cent in 2005.25

13. Gobind Nankani, World Bank Vice President of the African Region, confirmed in a
presentation at the October conference that after the difficult 2004/5 season, initial World Bank staff
estimates for the 2005/6 ginning season show that production in the C-4 fell by 15 per cent, producer
pricers fell by an average of 18 per cent, and the cotton sector's deficits remained at an estimated
US$68 million for the four C-4 countries.
26

14. At that same conference, the Interna tional Cotton Advisory Committee stated that:

From the perspective of cotton producers in Africa and other developing countries,
the key issue at hand is trade distorting ag ricultural subsidies that continue depressing
world cotton prices, hurting millions of cotton farmers in Africa and elsewhere. The
losses in income, employment, and foreign revenues far outnumber all of the
assistance committed so far.
27
15. The United Nations Development Progra mme's Human Development Report for 2005
highlights the effect of subsidies on cotton producer s in poor countries, and concludes that in 2005,
"the 20 000 cotton farmers in the United States will receive government payments in 2005 equivalent

at: http://www.agritrade.org/events/s peeches/CottonConference/Sumner.ppt (the "Sumner Presentation"). For
full materials of the conference, see: http://www.ideascentre.ch/ConferenceWashington.htm
21 Sumner Presentation, at slide 19.
22 John Baffes, "The Cotton Problem," World Bank Research Observer 20(1): 109-44, Spring 2005, at
page 132.
23 Daniel Sumner, "U.S. Farm Programs and African Cotton: Discussion Paper Prepared for the
'International Conference on Cotton: The Next Steps for Africa' Washington, D.C., October 26, 2006",
International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council Discussion Paper, Washington, DC. (forthcoming) (the
"Sumner Discussion Paper"), Table 2 (sourced from: USDA FAS Production, Supply and Distribution
Database, available at: http://www.fas.isda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

24 Ibid.
25 Ibid.
26 Gobind Nankani, World Bank Vice President of the African Region, Development of the Cotton
Sector in West and Central Africa, Slide Show at the International Conference on Cotton:
The Next Steps for Africa, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2006, available at
http://www.agritrade.org/events/speeches/CottonConference/Nankani.ppt.
27 International Cotton Advisory Committee, The Importance of Cotton in Africa, presentation at the
International Conference on Cotton: The Next Steps for Africa, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2006, available
at http://www.agritrade.org/events/speeches/CottonConference/Townsend.pdf

to the market value of the crop and more than US aid in Sub-Saharan Africa."
28 The report also notes
that "subsidies [of the order of the US subsidies] are reminiscent of the state planning systems that
characterized the former Soviet Union".29

16. In these circumstances, it is eviden t that the proper implementation of the
DSB's recommendations and rulings is of paramount importance to Chad and its fellow C-4 countries,
which are some of the most vulnerable economies in th e world. It is of critical importance to these
countries and, indeed, to the multilateral trading sy stem as a whole, that this compliance Panel
carefully and stringently review the measures ta ken by the United States to comply with those
recommendations and rulings to ensure that the rules governing the provision of subsidies are
properly applied and followed.

17. As explained in this subm ission, and in more detail in Brazil's first written submission
30, the
United States subsidies at issue in this dispute have had and continue to cause significant price
suppression. This price suppression has an adverse impact on Chad's cotton farmers and on
Chad's economy as a whole. And, as Brazil argues in its first submission, and Chad maintains below,
the United Sates has not properly implemented the DSB recommendations and rulings regarding the
adverse effects of these subsidies.

18. In assessing the impact of these subsidies on Chad, and the arguments that Chad makes in
these proceedings, Chad requests that the Panel take note of Article 24 of the DSU, which states that:
"[a]t all stages of the determination of the causes of a dispute, and of dispute settlement procedures
involving a least-developed country Member, particular consideration shall be given to the special
situation of least-developed country Members". For the reasons explained above, Chad's reliance on
its cotton industry to generate exports and fight pove rty constitutes just such a special situation. The
Panel should give due consideration to this speci al situation by making recommendations and rulings
that will lead to a competitive world cotton market that is not distorted by WTO-inconsistent
subsidies.

II. LEGAL ARGUMENT

A. T
HE UNITED STATES HAS NOT TAKEN STEPS TO IMPLEMENT THE RULINGS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE DSB

19. The original panel found that the effect of several mandatory price-contingent U.S. subsidy
programmes, including user marketing (or "Step 2") payments, marketing loan payments and
counter-cyclical payments, caused significant price suppression in the world market for upland cotton,
and thereby caused adverse effects to Brazil, in violation of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the
SCM Agreement.
31 In its implementation of the DSB recommendations and rulings, however, the
United States merely discontinued the Step 2 programme as of August 2006, while leaving unchanged
the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments. 32 As explained in more detail below, however, the

28 Human Development Report 2005, page 132.
29 Ibid., page 131.
30 First Written Submission of Brazil to the Panel, 17 November 2006 ("First Written Submission of
Brazil").
32 See Exhibit Bra-435 (Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, U.S. Public Law 109-171, Section 1103,
available at http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/publaw/109publ.html ). The United States Congress bill that
repeals the Step 2 subsidy program for upland cotton was signed into law on 8 February 2006, and took effect
on 1 August 2006. See Minutes of DSB Meeting, WT/DSB/M205, 17 February 2006, para. 92 and Exhibit
Bra-441 ("House approves Byrd repeal, elimination of step 2 cotton program", Inside US Trade,
3 February 2006).

Step 2 programme accounted for, at most, one sev enth of the aggregate subsidies to U.S. cotton
production. Hence, the vast majority of the benef its of implementation were expected to come from
the termination of the domestic support programmes.

20. Chad recalls that Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement requires that the "Member granting or
maintaining [any subsidy that has resulted in advers e effects to the interest of another Member] shall
take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or shall withdraw the subsidy".

21. Chad submits by simply ending Step 2 paym ents and leaving in place the other programmes
found to cause adverse effects, the United States cannot be found either to have withdrawn the
subsidies or to have removed the adverse effects thereof.

1. The United States has not properly implemented the panel's findings regarding the
Marketing Loan and Counter-Cyclical Payment Programmes

22. It is undisputed that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes have not
been withdrawn. To the contrary, the United St ates argues that these programmes were not subject
either to a finding of WTO inconsistency or any DSB recommendations.
33 The United States requests
the Panel to find that the marketing loan and c ounter-cyclical payment programmes are not measures
to which the recommendations and rulings of the DSB were addressed and, therefore, that these
measures are not within the scope of the present proceedings.34

23. Chad disagrees with the United States' interp retation of the original panel's findings and
the DSB recommendations and rulings. The original panel found that "the effect of the mandatory
price-contingent measures" was significant price suppression within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) that
constituted serious prejudice to the interests of Br azil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement.35

24. The panel clearly described the measures at issue as including the "legislative and regulatory
provisions currently providing for the payment of measures" including marketing loan and counter-
cyclical programme payments.36

25. In its analysis of Brazil's claims under Articles 6.3(c) and 5(c) of threat of serious prejudice
regarding the same measures, the panel also stated that there were "two main measures providing for
the payment of the United States subsidies in ques tion," which it described as the "FRSI Act of 2002
and implementing regulations" and "legislation providing for crop insurance subsidies prior to and
since MY 2002."37 The panel explained the consequences of its findings of present serious prejudice
regarding these measures as follows:

Because the Panel's 'present' serious prejudice findings include findings of
inconsistency that deal with the FSRI Act of 2002 and subsidies granted thereunder in
MY 2002, the United States is obliged to take ac tion concerning its present statutory
and regulatory framework as a result of our 'present' serious prejudice finding. We
recall that, pursuant to Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement, the United States is under

33 First Submission and Request for Preliminar y Rulings of the United States of America,
15 December 2006 (the "U.S. First Submission"), para. 37.
34 Ibid., para. 44.
35 Panel Report, paras. 7.14.16, 8.1(g)(i).
36 Ibid., para. 7.1107(ix).
37 Ibid., para. 7.1498.

an obligation to 'take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or … withdraw
the subsidy.'
38
26. Thus, the panel clearly considered that its findings regarding "present" serious prejudice
applied not just to payments, but to the statutor y and regulatory framework of the FSRI Act of 2002
and its implementing regulations.

27. Moreover, the panel relied on the scope of its findings regarding "present" serious prejudice
to decline to address Brazil's claims of threat of serious prejudice under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the
SCM Agreement:

We consider that, upon required implementation by the United States of this Panel's
prohibited subsidy findings and present serious prejudice findings , the basket of
measures in question may be so significantly transformed or manifestly different from
the measures that are currently in question that it is not necessary or appropriate to
address Brazil's claims of threat of serious prejudice.39
28. Thus, the original panel clearly considered that its findings included not simply the payments
themselves under the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes, but also the statutory
and regulatory measures under which those payments were mandated.
29. The United States' arguments that the statut ory and regulatory aspects of these measures were
not covered by the Panel's findings are twofold. First, the United States argues that the panel's
findings in paragraph 8.1(g)(i) of its report refe rred to "payments" not "programs" in the phrase
between dashes. The United States' argument ignores that the panel described the payments at issue
as "mandatory." This description necessarily implies th at the measure at issue was not limited to the
actual payments themselves, but included the stat utory and regulatory framework that made those
payments "mandatory." Accordingly, Chad does not consider the panel's failure to use the word
"programmes" in paragraph 8.1(g)(i) of its repor t to be sufficient grounds to ignore the panel's
description of the measures at issue and the Panel' s explanation of what steps it considered necessary
to implement quoted above.
30. Second, the United States argues that the panel did not address Brazil's per se or "as such"
claims regarding these programmes, or Brazil's claims regarding threat of serious prejudice, and,
therefore, the Panel's findings were strictly limited to the payments themselves. However, Brazil is
not precluded from pursuing before this compliance panel claims regarding the threat of serious
prejudice that the original panel declined to address. 40 These claims raise substantially the same
issues regarding the statutory and regulatory fra mework for these programmes as Brazil's claims
regarding the implementation of the panel's findings regarding present serious prejudice.

31. The United States' argument appears to confu se the issue of whether a statutory provision is
challenged "as such" with the altogether separate issue of whether a statutory provision mandating
certain payments can be found to cause serious prejudi ce. Brazil's claims before the original panel
were that these payments, including the "legislativ e and regulatory provisions currently providing for
the payment[s]" were actually causing serious prej udice. In other words, these claims were "as
applied" claims regarding measures that include d legislative and regulatory provisions. The
distinction sometimes made in WTO proceedings be tween "as such" and "as applied" claims does not

38 Ibid., para. 7.1501 (original footnote omitted) (emphasis added).
39 Ibid., para. 7.1503 (emphasis added).
40 See, e.g., Panel Report, United States – Oil Country Tubular Goods Sunset Reviews (Article 21.5 –
Argentina), paras. 7.90-7.94.

mean that statutory or regulatory provisions cannot be challenged on an "as applied" basis or that "as
applied" claims are necessarily limited to the paym ents themselves to the exclusion of measures
mandating those payments. Where a party includ es statutory or regulatory measures in an "as
applied" claim, as Brazil did before the original panel, implementation of the panel's findings with
respect to that claim cannot be limited to one aspect of the measure (the payments) to the exclusion of
other aspects (the governmental mechanisms whereby the payments are made).

32. For these reasons, the Panel should reject the Un ited States' arguments that the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment programmes are not within the scope of this proceeding.

33. The United States' failure to take implemen ting measures regarding the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programmes is within the scope of these proceedings. As explained above,
the original panel's findings covered those program mes. Article 21.5 review includes both measures
taken to implement and a failure to implement. In U.S. – Softwood Lumber VI (21.5) , the Appellate
Body confirmed that "[t]he word "existence" s uggests that measures falling within the scope of
Article 21.5 encompass not only positive acts, but also omissions."
41 Thus, where an implementing
Member fails to adopt "measures taken to comply" within the implementation period, it has made a
failure or omission enabling a panel under Article 21.5 to conclude that no measures "exist" to
implement the recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

34. As the only action undertaken by the United States was the repeal of the Step 2 programme on
1 February 2006 with effect from August 2006, it is cl ear that the United States has not withdrawn or
amended the marketing loan or counter-cyclical pa yment programmes found to be inconsistent with
the United States' WTO obligations.

2. The United States has not removed the adverse effects of the Marketing Loan and
Counter-Cyclical Payment Programmes

35. As noted above, the United States has not taken any steps to address the adverse effects
caused by the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments.

36. Moreover, the withdrawal of the Step 2 paym ents cannot be said to have removed the adverse
effects of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments.

37. The vast majority of the price suppressi on and adverse effects caused by the impugned
U.S. programmes was and continues to be caused by the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programmes, rather than the Step 2 payments. The Anderson and Valenzuela study discussed above
confirms this.
42 The study underlines that the repeal of the Step 2 programme is equivalent, at best, to
"a one-seventh reduction in the aggregate subsidy to US cotton production" and, if the support were
re-instrumented to direct production subsidies, "there would effectively be no global market impact of
the repeal".43 In contrast, if the counter-cyclical payment and marketing loan programmes were to be
counted as part of the US amber box measures, they would be required to be cut by US$1 billion,
which would be "more than twice the amount associated with repealing the Step 2 program".44

38. These findings accord with those of Daniel Su mner who has also provided estimates of the
effects of individual programmes. He notes that the Step 2 programme alone accounts for only about
15 per cent of the total subsidy impact, however "t he major farm bill programs, marketing loans and

41 See Appellate Body Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5 -- Canada), para. 67.
42 Anderson and Valenzuela study, page 10.
43 Ibid.
44 Ibid.

counter-cyclical payments, account for mo st of the remaining subsidy effect".
45 Professor Sumner
concludes that if the US were to implement fu lly the recommendations and rulings of the DSB by
removing these programmes, LDCs would benefit from substantial price and production increases
would be available to least-developed countries.46

39. Thus, the US domestic support programmes, rather than export subsidies under the Step 2
programme, are most detrimental to Chad. Usi ng the GTAP database and model, the Anderson and
Valenzuela study demonstrates that over 80 per ce nt of the benefits from removal of all cotton
subsidies and import tariffs will come from cutti ng domestic support programme s rather than export
subsidies which will "contribute almost none of the global benefits of reform".47

40. Chad submits that in addition to the effect of the subsidies on Brazil, the US subsidies
continue to cause adverse effects within the meaning of Article 5(c) and 6.3 of the SCM Agreement on
the world market for upland cotton, and, consequently , to the interests not just of Brazil of Chad and
other cotton-producing African countries.

41. The original panel has already found that:

[T]he effect of the mandatory price-con tingent United States subsidy measures –
marketing loan programme payments, u ser marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA
payments and CCP payments – is significant price suppression in the same world
market within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement constituting
serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement.
48

42. Chad submits that the findings and analysis of the original panel continue to be relevant to
this analysis because these proceedings are part of a "continuum of events". 49 The Appellate Body
in United States – Softwood Lumber VI (21.5) stated that a panel operating under Article 21.5 of
the DSU cannot perform its task of "in abstracti on from the measure that was the subject of the
original proceedings", 50 and that "doubts could arise about th e objective nature of an Article 21.5
panel's assessment if, on a specific issue, that panel were to deviate from the reasoning in the original
panel report in the absence of any finding in the underlying evidence." 51 As the Appellate Body
stated:
Article 21.5 panels can be expected to re fer to their original panel reports, in
particular, when matters before them are clo sely related to the matters before original
panels.52
43. This reasoning also applies to this dispute. The claims of serious prejudice in this dispute as
they relate to the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments involve the same subsidy programmes
that were at issue before the original panel. As the United States has not changed those measures that

45 Sumner Discussion Paper, page. 20.
46 Ibid.
47 "[E]xport subsidy removal would contribute almost none of the global benefits of reform, and cotton
tariff removal would account for only one-nineth of the global gain, with the other eight-nineths due to cutting
domestic support programs", p. 8. See also World Bank Trade Note 27, 30 March 2006, p. 2.
49 See Appellate Body Report, Mexico – Corn Syrup (Article 21.5 – US), para. 121.
50 Appellate Body Report, United States – Softwood Lumber VI (21.5), para. 102.
51 Ibid., para. 103.
52 Ibid., para. 105. See also Appellate Body Report, Mexico – Corn Syrup (Article 21.5 – US),
para. 121

were found to cause serious prejudice by the original panel, this Panel should rely on the factual and
legal conclusions concerning the existence, natu re and potential for price suppression of those
measures in the original panel report. Chad refers the Panel to the relevant findings of the original
panel on those matters.53

44. As noted above, the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments account for the vast
majority of the adverse effects identified by the original panel. The failure to implement the original
panel's findings with regard to these subsidies has therefore deprived cotton exporters such as Chad of
the benefits of the panel's findings and has resulte d in the ongoing harm to a critically-important
sector of Chad's vulnerable economy described above. In these circumstances, taking note of Chad's
special situation, this Panel should follow the reasoni ng of the original panel and find that the adverse
effects continue, and have not changed. Chad, th erefore, supports the arguments of Brazil that the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical paym ent programmes under the FSRI Act of 2002 alone cause
present serious prejudice and requests the Panel to find accordingly.54

45. Moreover, as explained above in paragraphs I.B.12 and I.B.13, and as Brazil notes in its first
written submission to the Panel, the price effects of the U.S. subsidies have continued and, indeed,
gotten worse since the original panel's rulings. Ch ad and the other C-4 countries have continued to
lose market share in cotton exports, even while the United States' market shar e continues to increase.
In addition, C-4 cotton production and producer pri ces have continued to decrease substantially,
by 15 and 18 per cent respectively in 2005/05. Brazil observes that, West and Central African
countries' share of world production declined from 5.15 per cent in MY 2002 to 3.85 per cent in
MY 2005 – a 25 per cent decrease.
55 The region's share of world exports declined from 13.51 per cent
in MY 2002 to 11.10 per cent in MY 2005. Indeed , the West and Central African countries share of
world exports in MY 2005 was the lowest that it has been in the past 10 years.56

46. For these reasons, therefore, Chad supports Brazil's claim that the "non-repealed price-
contingent U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyc lical payment programs under the FSRI Act of 2002
cause present serious prejudice in the form of si gnificant price suppression in the world market for
upland cotton, and an increase in the U.S. world mark et share, in violation of Articles 5(c), 6.3(c)
and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement", and requests the Panel to find accordingly.57

3. Payments to be made in Marketing Year 2006 threaten to cause serious prejudice

47. Chad also supports Brazil's claim that despite the repeal of the Step 2 program, the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payments mandated unde r the FSRI Act of 2002 to be made in MY 2006,
and beyond, cause a threat of serious prejudice within the meaning of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) as well
as footnote 13 of the SCM Agreement.

48. As established by the original panel, th e marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs are mandatory, have guaranteed high levels of U.S. planted acreage, production and exports
and have caused significant price suppression. The continued granting of these subsidies, which is

53 See Panel Report, paras. As read with the Appellate Body Report, para.
54 First Written Submission of Brazil, para. 47 et seq.
55 Compare West and Central Africa production (Exhibit Bra-450 ("Cotton: World Statistics," ICAC,
September 2006, p. 26 and p. 28) with world upland cotton production (Exhibit Bra-447 (Upland Cotton Supply
and Use)).
56 Compare West and Central Africa exports (Exhib it Bra-450 ("Cotton: World Statistics," ICAC,
September 2006, p. 56 and p. 58) with world upland cotton exports (Exhibit Bra-447 (Upland Cotton Supply
and Use)).
57 First Written Submission of Brazil, para. 6.

mandated by law, constitutes a continuing threat of significantly suppressed world market prices for
developing country cotton producers, and will conti nue until these subsidy programs are repealed or
significantly amended.

49. Chad refers to Brazil's arguments and supporti ng evidence on this claim, and asks the Panel to
find that these subsidies cause present serious prejudi ce, and cause a threat thereof, in violation of
Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and footnote 13 of the SCM Agreement.

B. T
HE PANEL SHOULD ANALYSE THE EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMMES UNDER
ARTICLE 1.1(B) OF THE SCM AGREEMENT

50. Chad also supports the arguments of Brazil re garding the United States' implementation of the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB regarding the export credit guarantee programmes ("ECGs")
maintained by the Commodity Credit Corporation.
58

51. Chad considers that it is particularly important that this Panel interpret strictly the provisions
of the SCM Agreement and the Agreement on Agriculture governing ECGs. As a practical matter,
only developed country governments can effectively provide ECGs to promote their exports. As a
previous panel has noted:

[T]hrough export credit guarantees, governments can effectively make their
borrowing rates available to borrowers. However, the borrowing rates for developed
country governments are generally lower than those of developing country
governments. As a result, developing country Members . . . could never meet the
financing terms secured by developed country Members through government
guarantees.
59
52. That observation applies a fortiori to a LDC such as Chad. An ECG from an AAA-rated
government enables exports from that country to be made on financing terms normally available to
borrowers with a AAA credit risk. Thus, the purchasers of goods back ed by U.S. ECGs benefit from
the United States government's credit rating, giving a competitive advantage to U.S. exporters. In
addition, ECGs are a relatively inexpensive means for developed countries to support their exports in
that they involve no immediate cash outlay.

53. In contrast, countries like Chad do not have st rong enough credit ratings to be able to provide
competitive ECGs. They also lack the resources to be able to provide ongoing funding for such
programmes. Thus, developing country Members, an d particularly LDCs, face permanent structural
disadvantages compared to developed country Members in providing export credit.

54. ECGs are subject to the disciplines of the SCM Agreement. Panels and the Appellate Body
have found that ECGs may be inconsistent with the SCM Agreement if: (a) a government ECG is
offered on terms better than those available to the recipient for an equivalent guarantee that could
have been obtained in the marketplace (thereby conferring a benefit within the meaning of
Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement)
60; (b) a government ECG improves the terms of an underlying
loan compared to the terms that could have been secured in the marketplace without the government
ECG (based on Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement)61; and (c) a government ECG program charges

58 First Written Submission of Brazil, page 130 et seq.
59 Panel Report, Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada), footnote 98. See also Panel Report, Canada
– Aircraft (Article 21.5 -- Brazil), para. 5.136.
60 Panel Report, EC – CVDs on DRAMs, para. 7.189.
61 Ibid.

premium rates that are inadequate to cover the long-term operating costs and losses of the
programmes (based on item (j) of the Illustrative List of Export Subsidies included as Annex I to the
SCM Agreement).62

55. The structural disadvantages faced by Chad a nd other LDCs with respect to ECGs do not, of
course, affect the right of other WTO Members to provide ECGs consistent with the disciplines
described above. However, the special situation of LDCs as a result of these disadvantages should
provide important factual context for the current Pane l in its interpretation of the relevant provisions
of the SCM Agreement and its evaluation of the United States' measures.

56. In particular, the Panel should not limit its review of the U.S. ECGs to the question of
whether the rates at which ECGs are provided are inadequate to cover the long-term operating costs
and losses of the programme within the meaning of ite m (j) of the Illustrative List. In addition, the
Panel should carefully review whether the U.S. EC Gs confer a "benefit" within the meaning of
Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement as interpreted by the Appellate Body in Canada – Aircraft.63

III. CONCLUSION

57. As Chad has stated above, the Panel should, under DSU Article 24, consider the interests of
LDCs such as Chad in this proceeding. Such cons ideration is particularly appropriate where, as here,
WTO-inconsistent measures taken by an affluent developed country WTO Member continue to cause
serious harm to an important subsistence farm ing sector in the economy of some of the very
least-developed countries in the world.

58. In requesting the Panel's care ful consideration of the special situation of Chad and its fellow
C-4 countries in this proceeding, Chad does not ask the Panel in any way to bend the rules of the
WTO agreements to suit Chad. Instead, to paraphrase former WTO Deputy Director-General
Dr. Kipkorir Rana, Chad simply asks the Panel to en sure, through a careful review of the evidence
and rigorous application of the law, that the rele vant WTO rules and disciplines are fully applied to
the cotton sector so that a fair and market-oriented system can prevail, thereby eliminating wasteful
subsidies that cause substantial harm to the poorest WTO Members. 64

59. In Chad's view, Brazil has produced compe lling arguments and evidence to show that the
United States price-contingent subsidy programs su pporting upland cotton under the FSRI Act have
not been withdrawn or changed in any significant way. Brazil has also shown that overproduction and
excess exports, along with significantly suppressed world market prices for upland cotton, have
continued following the adoption of the reports of th e original panel and the Appellate Body in this
dispute. As explained above, Chad's own experience confirms the evidence submitted by Brazil.

60. Accordingly, Chad requests that the Panel make the findings requested in paragraph 462 of
Brazil's First Submission and the recommendations requested in paragraph 463 of that submission.

62 See, e.g., Appellate Body Report, paras. 672 and 674; Panel Report, paras. 7.867 and 7.869.
63 Appellate Body Report, Canada –Aircraft, paras. 152 et seq.
64 "[Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad] do not ask for aid, which is the World Bank's remit, nor do
they make political appeals that belong to the United Nations. They have just asked that WTO rules and
disciplines apply also in sectors of interest to the poor – that a fair and market-oriented system be established in
agriculture and that rich countrie s' wasteful export and production subsidies be abolished and cease to
undermine their comparative advantage." Former WTO Deputy Director-General Dr. Kipkorir Rana,
Address given to the Second East African Business Summit, "The Multilateral Trading System: Why East
Africa Must Remain Engaged" 18-21 September 2003, www.wto.org.

1. INTRODUCTION

1. China appreciates this opportunity to presen t its views on implementation measures by the
United States (the US) in accordance to the ru ling and recommendations adopted by the Dispute
Settlement Body ("DSB") in the original proceedings.

2. Pursuant to Article 10 of Understanding on Rules and Proce dures Governing the Settlement
of Disputes ("DSU"), China hereby makes its Third Party Submission.

3. In this submission, China w ill focus on the following issues:

1) Whether the item (j) of the Illustrativ e List of SCM Agreement constitutes the
complete basis for analysis of GSM102 as amended;

2) Whether the ML/CCP payment "programs" are outside the scope of this proceeding;

2. ARGUMENTS

2.1 Whether the item (j) of the Illustrative Li st of SCM Agreement co nstitutes the complete
basis for analysis of GSM102 as amended

4. In its submission, Brazil demonstrates that under Article 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the
SCM Agreement, GSM 102 ECGs are "financial contri butions" that confer "benefits", and that these
subsidies are contingent in law on export performance.
1 Furthermore, Brazil submits a alternative
claim under item (j) that the program continues to co nstitute an export subsidy, since fees continue to
be insufficient to cover the long-term operating costs and losses of the program.2

5. The US rebuts Brazil's approach by claiming it would lead to the fatally flawed result that a
measure that was specifically found to fall outside the definition of an export subsidy could then be
found to be an export subsidy. The US asserts that "it is item (j) that provides the basis for assessing
whether or not GSM-102 export guarantees are export s ubsidies within the meaning of Article 3.1(a)
and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement."3 In addition, the US appears to claims that, "in the case of measures
identified in the Illustrative List, it is the specifi c provisions of the Illustrative List – and not the
general subsidy provisions in the Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) – that govern when the measures may be
considered export subsidies." 4 In sum, it appears that the US argued a contrario interpretation of
item (j) in order to justify its amended GSM-102 program.

6. In this regard, China believes that the finding of the panel in Korea-Measures Affecting Trade
in Commercial Vessels can provide useful guidance. In discu ssions concerning the item (j) defense,
the panel pointed out that "Item (j) contains no such affirmative statement. Item (j) merely describes
certain circumstances in which particular programs shall constitute export subs idies. Since item (j)
therefore falls outside the scope of footnote 5, ite m (j) does not provide a basis on which to find that
measures do not constitute prohibited export subsidies".
5 The panel further concluded that "on its
face, item (j) defines certain circumstances in which export credit guarantee programs are export
subsidies. Item (j) simply does not address export guarantee programs that do cover their long-term

3 See First Submission and Request For Preliminary Rulings of The United States of America, para. 66.
4 Ibid, para. 65.
5 Panel Report on Korea-Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels, para. 7.178

operating costs and losses."
6 Accordingly, the panel found that a contrario interpretation of item (j)
was not permissible.

7. Hence, item (j) is only a shortcut to determ ine an export credit guarantee constitutes an export
subsidy when the guarantee does not cover its long- term operating costs and losses. However, it is
not a defense clause. When a guarantee does cover its long-term operating costs and losses, it is still
possible that the guarantee constitutes an export subsid y. Namely, if requirements of item (j) are not
met by a measure, the panel still needs to examine whether or not the measure is consistent with
Article 1 and 3 of SCM, specifically, whether it constitutes a financial contribution that confers
benefits. In China's view, the sc ope of export subsides in the meani ng of Article 1 and 3 of SCM is
broader than scope of item (j) of the illust rative list. The complainant may raise a prima facie case of
export subsidy either by claiming an illustrative list violation or Article 1 a nd 3 of SCM violations.
Nevertheless, non-existence of the illu strative list violation does not mean that it also consistent with
obligations under Article 1 and 3 of SCM.

8. Thus, in the opinion of China, the US's appro ach of proceeding from item (j) is incomplete. It
is the provisions in the Agreement of Agriculture and SCM Agreement plus item (j) in the Illustrative
List rather than the item (j) itself only can be taken as the complete basis for analyzing the nature of
GSM 102 programs. Even if the US could prove GSM 102 programs' premium could cover the long-
term operating costs and losses of the programs, it s till has to prove that it is consistent with the
discipline of export subsidy specified in the Articl es 1 and 3.1(a) of SCM Agreement and the relevant
provisions in AoA.

2.2 Whether the ML/CCP payment "programs" are outside the scope of this proceeding

9. Brazil requests that the compliance panel to de termine that the US has failed to comply fully
with its obligation, under Article 7.8 of SCM Agreement, to "withdraw the subsidy" or to "remove the
adverse effects" with respect to the US price-contingent subsidy programs.
7 Brazil believes that the
new basket of measures providing supp ort to the US upland cotton producers ( i.e., the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment) con tinue to cause serious prejudice as well as a threat of serious
prejudice to the interests of Brazil.

10. On the other hand, the U.S. argues that ML/CCP Programs are outside the scope of this
proceeding.
8 In the opinion of the U.S., (1) "the ma rketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs were not subject either to any findi ng of WTO-inconsistency or any DSB
recommendations",(emphasis added) 9 since "Brazil clearly distingui shed between claims against
programs per se and claims against specific payments under the programs ."(emphasis added)10; and
(2) since ML/CCP Programs have not been cha nged, in response to DSB recommendations and
rulings or otherwise, they are not "measures taken to comply".11

11. China can not endorse the position of the US that the US needs to do nothing concerning
the ML and CCP programs.

12. In the first place, contrary to what the US asserted in its Submission, DSB did make rulings
and recommendations in respect to ML/CCP programs in many occasions in the Panel Report, (1) the

6 Panel Report on Korea-Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels, para. 7.203
7 Ibid, para. 29
8 See U.S. First Written Submission, para. 44.
9 Ibid, para. 37.
10 Ibid, para. 32.
11 Ibid, para. 45.

panel found as one of the "measure at issue" th e "legislative and regulatory provisions currently
providing for the payment of measures," including that of ML and CCP. 12 This shows that
"legislative and regulatory provisions" of ML/CCP are measures subject to rulings/findings by the
panel. (2) in discerning the specificity of the measures at issue, the panel found that "a textual
analysis of 'the legislation pursuant to which the gr anting authority operates' leads us to conclude that
such subsidies are 'specific' within the meaning of Article 2.1(a)."
13 This clarifies that the panel did
make findings to some extent regarding to the le gislation authorizing ML/CCP subsidies. (3) in
establishing the causal links between the US subsid ies and the significant price suppression, the panel
found that marketing loan program paym ents and CCP payments, among others, are directly linked to
world prices for upland cotton, thereby insulating US producers from low prices, and that the
structure, design and operation of these measures constitute evidence suppor ting a causal link with
significant price suppression.14 These are explicit descriptions of the ML/CCP programs in the sense
that "directly linked to world price" is a mechanism by which a subsidy payment is to be made, rather
than the payment per se, and that the phrase " structure, design and operation of these measures " is
clearly synonymous to the programs. In short, these findings clearly show that the original panel had
made rulings on the ML/CCP programs.

13. In addition, in regard to its findings on "t hreat of" serious prejudice, the Panel concluded by
ruling explicitly that the United States is obliged to take action concerning its present statutory and
regulatory framework as a result of our 'present' serious prejudice finding."(emphasis added)
15 I n
making its findings on Brazil's "claims of per se incons istency", the original Panel found that "In light
of our findings above in Sections VII:E, F, G an d H, we do not believe that it is necessary to address
Brazil's per se claims relating to these measures under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) and (d) of the
SCM Agreement and Articles XVI:1 and XVI:3 of the GATT 1994."(emphasis added) 16 The
quotations show that the panel assumed the statutor y and regulatory framework of the US should be
changed and refrained itself from make further elaboration in this regard.

14. One step backwards, assuming that the orig inal panel did not make any recommendations in
respect to ML/CCP programs on the basis that it adopted judicial economy on Brazil's per se claim,
the US still needs to take measures to remove a dverse effects caused by those subsidies including ML
and CCP programs.

15. Another claim by the US with regard to scope of these compliance proceedings is that "Brazil
may not in these Article 21.5 proceedings again make these claims against unchanged measures."
17 In
this regard, China recalls that in paragraph 8.1(g)(i ) of its report, the original panel found that " the
effect of the mandatory price-contingent United States subsidy measures – marketing loan program
payments, user marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA payments and CCP payments – is significant price
suppression in the same world market within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement
constituting serious prejudice to the interests of Br azil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement." The recommendations and rulings of the DSB obliged the United States, under
Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement , to remove the adverse effects caused by these subsidies, or to
withdraw the subsidies.18

12 Panel Report on U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1107.
13 Ibid, para. 7.1146.
14 Ibid, para. 7.1349.
15 See Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1501.
16 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1511.
17 US First Submission, para. 48.
18 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton , para. 8.3(d). Brazil recalls that the Panel and Appellate Body
reports were adopted by the DSB on 21 March 2005.

16. As submitted by Brazil and admitted by the US, the only change made by the US concerning
the actionable subsidies is repeal of Step 2 prog ram. Nevertheless, the terms of reference of a
compliance panel is not limited to what the respond ing party claims to be the measures taken to
comply. It is clear that the US shall take measu res to withdraw all three subsidies or remove the
adverse effects caused by these subsidies. In views of China, since the compliance panel is obliged to
examine whether the measures taken by the US is consistent with the covered agreement, it is
necessary for the panel to examine whether or not the remaining two programs (ML and CCP
programs) are still causing serious prejudice.

3. CONCLUSIONS

17. To conclude, China requests the compliance panel to find that:
1) it is the set of provisos in the Agreemen t of Agriculture(especially the Articles 10.1
and 8) and SCM Agreement (particul arly Articles 1, 3.1(a) and 3.2) plus item (j) in
the Illustrative List that constitutes the co mplete basis for analyzing the nature of
SGM 102 programs.

2) ML/CCP payment programs are within th e scope of this compliance proceeding.

18. China reserves its right to address new argumen ts, and further develop the arguments set out
herein, in its oral statement to the third party session of the first substantive meeting.

ANNEX A-8

THIRD PARTY SUBMISSION OF
THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

(5 January 2007)

CONTENTS

Page

I. INTRODUCTION
 59
II. PANEL COMPOSITION 59
A. I NTRODUCTION 59
B. R E-COMPOSITION OF PANEL NOT NECESSARY 60
C. C ITIZENS OF THIRD PARTIES 60
D. R OLE OF ARTICLE 8.7 DSU 61
E. U NATTRACTIVE PRECEDENT 62
F. P ANEL SHOULD MAKE A FINDING OR RULING 62
III. BURDEN OF PROOF 63
IV. ADVERSE EFFECTS-RELATED RECOMMENDATIONS AND RULINGS
OF THE DSB 64
A. O BLIGATION TO IMPLEMENT 64
B. P RESENT SERIOUS PREJUDICE 66
C. T HREAT OF SERIOUS PREJUDICE 68
V. ALLEGED SO-CALLED "MANDATORY-DISCRETIONARY"
DISTINCTION 69

Table of Cases

Short Title Full Case Title and Citation
Australia – Automotive
Leather
Australia – Subsidies Provided to Producers and Exporters of Automotive
Leather, WT/DS126/R, adopted on 16 June 1999.
Canada – Aircraft
(Article 21.5)
Canada – Measures Affecting the Export of Civilian Aircraft – Recourse by
Brazil to Article 21.5 of the DSU, WT/DS70/AB/RW, adopted on 4 August
2000.
Guatemala – Cement I Guatemala – Anti-Dump ing Investigating Regarding Portland Cement
from Mexico, WT/DS60/AB/R, adopted on 25 November 1998.
Mexico – HFCS
(Article 21.5)
Mexico – Anti-Dumping Investigatio n of High Fructose Corn Syrup
(HFCS) from the United States, Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by
the United States, WT/DS132/AB/RW, adopted on 21 November 2001.
Mexico – Rice AD Measures Mexico – Definitive Anti-Dumping Measures On Beef And Rice,
Complaint With Respect To Rice , WT/DS295/AB/R, adopted on 20
December 2005.
US – 1916 Act United States – Anti-Dumping Act of 1916, WT/DS136/AB/R, adopted on
26 September 2000.
US-Corrosion-Resistant Steel United States – Sun set Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Corrosion-
Resistant Carbon Steel Flat Products from Japan , WT/DS244/AB/R,
adopted on 9 January 2004.
US – Shirts and Blouses United States – Measures Affecting Imports of Woven Wool Shirts and
Blouses from India, WT/DS33/AB/R, adopted on 23 May 1997.
US – Softwood Lumber VI United States - Investigation of the International Trade Commission in
Softwood Lumber From Canada, WT/DS277/R, adopted on 26 April
2004.
US - Softwood Lumber VI
(Article 21.5)
United States - In vestigation of the International Trade Commission in
Softwood Lumber from Canada, Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by
Canada, WT/DS277/RW, adopted on 9 May 2006.
US – Upland Cotton United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton, WT/DS267/AB/R, adopted on
21 March 2005.
US-Zeroing United States – Laws, Regulations and Methodology for Calculating
Dumping Margins ("Zeroing"), WT/DS294/AB/R, adopted on 9 May
2006.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The European Communities welcomes this opportunity to present its views on the legal
claims by Brazil and the United States in rela tion to alleged non-compliance with the Dispute
Settlement Body ("DSB") Recommendations and Rulings in " United States – Subsidies on Upland
Cotton".

2. In the original panel proceedings the Eur opean Communities decided to intervene as a third
party because of its systemic interest in the correct interpretation of the relevant WTO provisions, as
well as in the correct application of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the
Settlement of Disputes ("DSU"). At the DSB's meeting of 28 September 2006 the European
Communities declared that it reserved its third-party rights in relation to the recourse to Article 21.5
of the DSU by Brazil.
1

3. As a third party, the European Communiti es does not necessarily comment on every detail of
the parties' submissions. The fact that the Eur opean Communities has not commented on a particular
argument of the parties, or on the legal reasoning a nd findings in the Panel Re port or Appellate Body
Report should not be taken as an endorsement of su ch arguments, reasoning or findings. As is
customary, the European Communities will refrain fro m analysing the facts of the case in detail but
will present its views on a number of issues which raise systemic questions.

4. There are a number of systemic issues that arise from the parties' submissions and on which
the European Communities wishes to comment. They will be dealt with under the following
headings:

• Panel composition;
• Burden of proof;
• Adverse effects-related recommendations and rulings of the DSB:
- Obligation to implement;
- Present serious prejudice;
- Threat of serious prejudice; and
• Mandatory/discretionary.

5. There are other issues, including the United St ates request for certain preliminary rulings, on
which the European Communities intends to comme nt, and reserves its right to make further
comments at the third party session of the Panel's firs t substantive meeting with the parties, once the
parties' rebuttals are available.

II. PANEL COMPOSITION

A. I NTRODUCTION

6. The European Communities would like to make a submission in relation to the statement
made by Brazil at the meeting of the DSB on 26 October 2006, regarding the composition of the Panel
established on 28 September 2006 pursuant to Article 21.5 of the DSU in this case.

7. Brazil had made a request under Article 8.7 of the DSU for the composition of a compliance
panel. In its request, Brazil had asked the Direct or-General to nominate the three members of the
panel in the original proceedings. Although all thr ee members of the panel were available for service

1 WTO Doc. WT/DSB/M/220 of 2 November 2006, paragraph 50.

in the Article 21.5 proceedings, the Director-General elected to call only one of the panellists back to
service, and to nominate two new panellists.
8. In a letter to the Director-General following Brazil's request for composition under Article 8.7
of the DSU, the United States objected to the re-nomination of two of the original panellists, on the
basis that they are nationals of third parties to th e dispute. Brazil found the United States' objection
"curious" and set out a number of reasons to justify its opinion in its statement on 26 October 2006.

B. R
E-COMPOSITION OF PANEL NOT NECESSARY

9. Article 21.5 DSU states that:

Where there is disagreement as to the ex istence or consistency with a covered
agreement of measures taken to comply with the recommendations and rulings such
dispute shall be decided through recourse to these dispute settlement procedures,
including wherever possible resort to the original panel. … (emphasis added)
10. A plain reading of the text of Article 21.5 DSU conveys the intention of the drafters of
the DSU that if the original panel is available then it shall deal with the Article 21.5 DSU proceedings.
If the original panel is available, it follows that th ere is no requirement for it to be re-composed, as it
already exists and is available. It also follows th at where the original panel is available, there is
certainly no requirement for a new panel to be composed.

11. There are, however, certain limited circumst ances in which the original panel would be
unavailable. It would not be possible to refer the ma tter to the original panel if, for example, one of
the panellists had resigned or died or was otherwise unavailable. It would also not be possible to refer
the matter to the original panel if one of the pane llists had a conflict of interest, for instance, if a
panellist had acquired an equity stake in a United St ates or Brazilian cotton company. In such a case
the panellist would be bound to resign and thus b ecome unavailable. However, the European
Communities is of the view that a panellist being a citizen of a third party to the dispute pursuant to an
agreement already given under Article 8.3 of the DSU cannot for that reason alone require him to
resign at the implementation stage. Where a panellist has the citizenship of a third party to the dispute
then the presumption and starting point is that the parties should resort to the original panel.

12. If a panellist is unavailable the par ties should apply Article 9.3 of the DSU by analogy so that
"to the greatest extent possible the same persons sh all serve as panellists". So the starting position
should be that if one panellist is unavailable, then the other two pa nellists continue to serve on the
panel.

C. C
ITIZENS OF THIRD PARTIES

13. Article 8.3 of the DSU states that:

Citizens of Members whose governments
6 are parties to the dispute or third parties as
defined in paragraph 2 of Article 10 shall not serve on a panel concerned with that
dispute, unless the parties to the dispute agree otherwise.
6 In the case where customs unions or common markets are parties to a dispute, this provision
applies to citizens of all member countries of the customs unions or the common markets.
14. The first clause of Article 8.3 of the DSU thus prohibits citizens of third parties from serving
on "a panel concerned with that dispute". Ho wever, the second clause of Article 8.3 of the DSU
permits the parties to agree that this prohibition does not apply.

15. The original panel had a Polish Chairman w ith Chilean and Australian (Mr. Daniel Moulis)
Members.

16. Australia had reserved its th ird party rights when the orig inal panel was established on
18 March 2003. It necessarily follows that Brazil and the United States must have (or must be
deemed to have) entered into an unconditional agre ement that the prohibition contained in the first
clause of Article 8.3 did not apply to Mr. Moulis . Brazil and the United States thus agreed that
Mr. Moulis was not to be prohibited from serving on "a panel concerned with that dispute", even
though Australia was a third party. This must be so, otherwise the original panel (and presumably the
original Panel Report) would be inconsistent with Article 8.3 of the DSU.

17. Both parties (the United States and Brazil) ha ving entered into such an agreement that the
prohibition in the first clause of Article 8.3 (precluding Mr. Moulis from serving on "a panel
concerned with that dispute") was not applicable, th ere is no basis in the DSU for such agreement to
be withdrawn at any time solely on the basis that Mr. Moulis is a national of a third party. The
United States or Brazil or indeed both of them might subsequently have had "second thoughts", and
might have wished Mr. Moulis to resign or to sack him. Perhaps as a result of a preliminary ruling;
or after a hearing; or following questions; or following the issuance of the factual part or the interim
report. But the DSU affords the parties no such right, and with good reason. It would obviously be
deeply destructive to the independence of panellists, and intolerable from a systemic point of view, if
either party could unilaterally sack a panellist, citing only as a reason th at the panellist is a national of
a third party, when agreement under Article 8.3 of the DSU has already been given.

18. The text of Article 8.3 DSU unequivocally supports the European Communities' interpretation
on this matter. It states that "…third parties … shall not serve on a panel concerned with that
dispute, unless the parties to the dispute agree otherwise." The use of the words "a panel concerned
with that dispute" indicates that the drafters of this article intended that the rule in Article 8.3 (that is,
both the prohibition and the agreement) are to apply more broadly than to their participation in the
original proceedings ("the [original] dispute"). Article 21.5 DSU proceedings are certainly
"concerned with" the original dispute. It therefor e follows that the general prohibition on citizens of
third parties serving as panellists applies in relation to their serving on panels considering Article 21.5
DSU proceedings; and the same must therefore be tr ue of the agreement referred to in the second
clause of Article 8.3 of the DSU.

19. Crucially, nothing in Article 8.3 DSU provides for a party to "the dispute" or "concerned with
that dispute" to withdraw the consent ("agree[d] ot herwise"), once given, for a citizen of a third party
to serve on a panel concerned with that dispute. It is therefore not open to the United States to
withdraw its consent in Article 21.5 DSU proceedings, in the same way as it would have been unable
to withdraw its consent after the interim report was published or just before the final hearing of the
original panel.

20. If a Member is free to object to the compositi on of a panel in such circumstances then there
will be a strong perception amongst other Members th at the Member has object ed since it disagrees
with the original panel's findings. This perception will be underlined by the fact that an objection was
not made under Article 8.3 DSU in respect of the composition of the original panel.

D. R
OLE OF ARTICLE 8.7 DSU

21. Article 8.7 of the DSU states that if the parties to the dispute cannot agree on the panellists the
Director-General shall determine the panel's compos ition "in accordance with any relevant special or
additional rules or procedures of the covered agreem ent or covered agreements which are at issue in
the dispute". The European Communiti es submits that Article 21.5 of the DSU represents such a

relevant special rule. The Director-General, in exercising his discretion under Article 8.7 of the DSU,
is therefore obliged to have regard to the provisions of Article 21.5 of the DSU.

22. Article 21.5 of the DSU states that an implementation "dispute shall be decided … wherever
possible [by] resort to the original panel".
23. The European Communities agrees with Brazil that Article 21.5 DSU provides for resort to
the original panel because the aim of Article 21.5 DSU proceedings is that they be dealt with as
expeditiously as possible given that the dispute has already been settled by the panel (and in this case
also by the Appellate Body).

24. The European Communities agrees with Brazil th at "To facilitate the expeditious disposal of
Article 21.5 proceedings, the provision calls for reso rt to the original panel in all but those narrow
circumstances in which it is impossible for the original panellists to serve."
2 For the reasons set out
above, in this particular case the United States should not have been able to successfully withdraw its
agreement to an existing panellist continuing to serve on any panel concerned with the dispute solely
on the grounds that he is a national of a third party.

25. It is the European Communities' view that in applying Article 8.7 of the DSU, in light of
Article 21.5 of the DSU, the Director General was obliged to reject the United States attempt to
withdraw its agreement under Article 8.3 of the DSU solely on the grounds that an existing panellist is
a national of a third party.

E. U
NATTRACTIVE PRECEDENT

26. The European Communities agrees with Brazil that the circumstances of this case set an
unattractive precedent. The European Communities ag rees with Brazil that this precedent could be
invoked in other cases, because implementing Members could always object to the participation, in
Article 21.5 DSU proceedings, of panellists who ruled against them in the original dispute.

F. P
ANEL SHOULD MAKE A FINDING OR RULING

27. The European Communities realises that it is not self-evident that this Panel should make
findings or rulings regarding the propriety of its own composition. However, the European
Communities believes that there is pr ecedent for such a proposition, and that it is highly desirable in
this case given the systemic importance of the issue.

28. The European Communities submits that the Pane l has the authority to rule on the propriety
of its own composition. Authority for this can be found in the Australia – Automotive Leather case.
In that case the panel considered an Australian request that the panel terminate its work and, in effect,
disestablish itself. In addition, the panel did not ru le out the fact that, once the DSB has established a
panel, the panel so established has the authority to rule on the propriety of its own establishment.3

29. Furthermore, the European Communities submit s that, even if the parties do not address this
issue directly in their submissions, the Panel has a duty to address it, as it is of fundamental
importance for the correct interpretation of the DSU and for the smooth and equitable operation of

2 Statement made by Brazil at the Meeting of the DSB on 26 October 2006.
3 Panel Report, Australia – Automotive Leather, paragraphs 9.10 to 9.13.

the WTO dispute settlement system. In the Mexico – HFCS (Article 21.5) case the Appellate Body
held that4:
… panels have to address and dispose of certa in issues of a fundamental nature, even
if the parties to the dispute remain silent on those issues. In this regard, we have
previously observed that "[t]he vesting of jurisdiction in a panel is a fundamental
prerequisite for lawful panel proceedings." 34 For this reason, panels cannot simply
ignore issues which go to the root of their jurisdiction – that is, to their authority to
deal with and dispose of matters. Rather, panels must deal with such issues – if
necessary, on their own motion – in order to satisfy themselves that they have
authority to proceed.
34 Appellate Body Report, United States – 1916 Act, supra, footnote 32, para.54.
30. The European Communities subm its that these cases provide authority for the view that the
Panel should make findings on an analogous and very important systemic issue in the interpretation of
the DSU. Indeed, the European Communities submits th at it is vitally important that the Panel
delivers a finding or ruling on this systemic issue to avoid the perception that Members can always
object to the participation, in Article 21.5 DSU proceedings, of panellists who ruled against them in
the original dispute.

III. BURDEN OF PROOF

31. The European Communities submits that Br azil, as the applicant in these Article 21.5 DSU
proceedings, bears the burden of proving its assertions that the United States has failed to implement,
in a timely and complete manner, the recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

32. The general principles applicable to burden of proof, as stated by the Appellate Body in US –
Shirts and Blouses, require that a party claiming a violation of a provision of the WTO Agreement by
another Member must assert and prove its claim.
5 In the present Article 21.5 DSU proceedings the
European Communities submits that it is Brazi l, which has challenged the United States'
implementation of the recommendations and rulings of the DSB, that bears the burden of proving that
the United States has not implemented them in a timely and complete manner. It is therefore the
responsibility of Brazil to submit evidence sufficient to establish a prima facie case that the
United States has not implemented the recommenda tions and rulings of the DSB in a timely or
complete manner. Once Brazil has done so, it is fo r the United States to submit evidence sufficient to
rebut that prima facie case.

33. The European Communities also recalls that the Appellate Body has observed that various
international tribunals, including the International C ourt of Justice, have ge nerally and consistently
accepted that the party that asserts a fact, whether cl aimant or respondent, is responsible for providing
proof thereof.
6

4 Appellate Body Report, Mexico – HFCS (Article 21.5), paragraph 36.
5 Appellate Body Report, US – Shirts and Blouses, pages 14 to 16.
6 Appellate Body Report, US – Shirts and Blouses, page 14.

IV. ADVERSE EFFECTS-RELATED RECOMMENDATIONS AND RULINGS OF
THE DSB

A. O
BLIGATION TO IMPLEMENT

34. Brazil claims that between the expiry of the implementation period on 21 September 2005
and the elimination of Step 2 payments on 1 Augu st 2006, there did not "exist" any United States
"measures taken to comply" with the adverse effects-related recommendations and rulings of
the DSB.7

35. In the view of the European Communities, one of the tasks incumbent on the present
Article 21.5 DSU Panel is to examine whether by taking no positive action the United States could
nevertheless be "in conformity with" its obligations under the SCM Agreement . As the Appellate
Body in Canada – Aircraft (Article 21.5) held:

Proceedings under Article 21.5 do not concern just any measure of a Member of
the WTO; rather, Article 21.5 proceed ings are limited to those "measures taken to
comply with the recommendations and rulings" of the DSB. In our view, the phrase
"measures taken to comply" refers to measu res which have been, or which should be,
adopted by a Member to bring about compliance with the recommendations and
rulings of the DSB. In principle, a measure which has been "taken to comply with the
recommendations and rulings" of the DSB, will not be the same measure as the
measure which was the subject of the original dispute, so that, in principle, there
would be two separate and distinct measures: the original measure which gave rise to
the original recommendations and rulings of the DSB, and the "measures taken to
comply" which are – or should be – adopted to implement those recommendations
and rulings.
8
36. However, from the text of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement it is not clear that the
United States even had to actually do anything to comply with the findings and recommendations of
the original panel.

37. Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement states that:

Where a panel report or an Appellate Body report is adopted in which it is determined
that any subsidy has resulted in adverse e ffects to the interests of another Member
within the meaning of Article 5, the Memb er granting or maintaining such subsidy
shall take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects 9 or shall withdraw the
subsidy.
38. Thus, the text of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement does not state expressly that a Member
that has been requested by the DSB to implement its recommendati ons and rulings under Article 7.8
of the SCM Agreement actually has to do anything. Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement gives the
implementing Member two choices as to how to implement DSB recommendations and rulings. It
can "take appropriate steps to remove the adverse e ffects [of the subsidy]". On the other hand, an
implementing Member also has the choice to comply with the DSB's recommendations and rulings by
"withdraw[ing] the subsidy".

7 Section 6 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
8 Appellate Body Report, Canada – Aircraft (Article 21.5), paragraph 36.
9 European Communities' emphasis added.

39. It is clear that between the implementati on date of 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006 the
United States did not withdraw any of the subsidies in question. However, this does not automatically
mean that the United States has not complied w ith the DSB's recommendations and rulings as it was
open for the United States to choose instead to "take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects".

40. The European Communities submits that in "tak [ing] appropriate steps to remove the adverse
effects" an implementing Member can exercise its di scretion as to how best to remove those adverse
effects. It could choose to do so by enacting new le gislation, amending current legislation, or by an
executive order or other types of administrative ac tion. These are all examples of positive acts which
could be taken by an implementing Member.

41. However, the European Communities further s ubmits that "tak[ing] appropriate steps" may
also include, in certain cases, taking no positive action at all; in other words, doing nothing. The test
which taking no positive action has to meet in order to comply with the SCM Agreement is that it
constitutes "appropriate steps to remove the adver se effects". The question as to whether taking no
positive action actually is "appropriate" and actually does "remove" the adverse effects should be
judged by a careful analysis of the particular facts and circumstances of each case. It may be in
certain cases that other facts and circumstances ha ve changed to such an extent that the adverse
effects of the subsidies have stopped; for instan ce, a subsidy may have e xpired and adverse effects
may have stopped.

42. If there are three subsidies at issue and the or iginal panel holds that they cumulatively had an
adverse effect, it is possible that the removal of one of those subsidies could remove the adverse
effect.

43. In a case where the subsidy or adverse ef fects are discontinued th e European Communities
submits that the complaining party in Article 21.5 DSU proceedings is bound to analyse whether the
implementing party has taken appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects with reference to
"present" circumstances rather th an the possibly rather different circumstances which may have
existed when the DSB made its original rulings and recommendations. However, analysis of the
"present" circumstances and context will invariably en tail analysis of the latest relevant statistical and
financial information and reports, so in this sense the analysis cannot be absolutely contemporaneous
with the position on the ground. However, the complaining party in Article 21.5 DSU proceedings
should ensure that its analysis is as up to date as is possible and the European Communities would
expect that the Panel will employ a "reasonableness" test in its analysis thereof.

44. In the US – Softwood Lumber VI, (Article 21.5) panel report it was noted that,

[t]he role of a panel in an Article 21.5 pa nel proceeding is to evaluate the challenged
measure to determine its consistency with the defending Member's obligations under
the relevant WTO Agreements.
10
45. Thus, it said, the panel,

is not limited by its original analysis and decision – rather, it is to consider, with a
fresh eye, the new determination before it, and evaluate it in light of the claims and
arguments of the parties in the Article 21.5 proceeding.11

10 Panel Report, US – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5), paragraph 7.12.
11 Panel Report, US – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5), paragraph 7.12.

46. The European Communities submits that the panel's reasoning in US – Softwood Lumber VI
(Article 21.5) on this point should apply in the present case. Although the United States may not have
taken any positive action to comply with th e panel and Appellate Body's findings and
recommendations between the implementation date of 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006, the Panel
cannot, subject to the principle of res judicata , be limited by the earlier panel and Appellate Body
reports as it must make a new determination in the present Article 21.5 DSU proceedings.

47. In US – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5), the panel also observed that,

[w]hile we cannot preclude the possibility that a Member might implement a DSB
recommendation by specifically answering points raised by a panel (or the Appellate
Body) in the relevant decisions, this is by no means required by the DSU.
12
48. On appeal the Appellate Body concluded that the panel's statements in this regard did not
violate Article 11 of the DSU. Again, this case demonstrates that the lack of positive action taken by
the United States to comply with the panel an d Appellate Body's findings and recommendations
between the implementation date of 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006 is not necessarily fatal to its
defence. As stated above, subject to the principle of res judicata, the Panel cannot be restricted by the
earlier panel and Appellate Body reports as it mu st make a new determination in the present
Article 21.5 DSU proceedings.

B. P
RESENT SERIOUS PREJUDICE

49. In its adverse effects-relate d recommendations and rulings, the original panel, as affirmed by
the Appellate Body, found that the price-continge nt United States marketing loan program, counter-
cyclical payment program and Step 2 program of the FSRI Act of 2002 caused significant price
suppression in the world market for upland cotton, in violation of Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and 6.3(d) of
the SCM Agreement. The panel found that:

the United States is obliged to take action concerning its present statutory and
regulatory framework as a result of our "present" serious prejudice findings.
13
50. The DSB adopted the panel and Appellate B ody reports that obliged the United States to
remove the adverse effects caused by the subs idies, or to withdraw the subsidies by
21 September 2005.

51. In the present Article 21.5 DSU proceedings Brazil claims that the United States did not
repeal or amend any of the three price-conti ngent subsidy programs until 1 August 2006, when it
finally discontinued solely the Step 2 program. Braz il claims that the far larger marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payment programs have not been removed or amended.

52. In the second of Brazil's claims concerning adverse effects-related recommendations and
rulings of the DSB, Brazil claims that the non-rep ealed price-contingent United States marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment programs under the FSRI Act of 2002 cause present14 serious prejudice
in the form of significant price suppression in the world market for upland cotton, and an increase in
the world market share, in violation of Articles 5(c), 6.3(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement . In
other words, Brazil claims that, to the extent me asures taken to comply with the adverse-effects
related recommendations and rulings of the DSB exist (i.e., the repeal of Step 2 and the non-repeal of

12 Panel Report, US – Softwood Lumber VI (Article 21.5), paragraph 7.12.
13 Panel Report, US – Upland Cotton, paragraph 7.1501.
14 European Communities' emphasis added.

the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment pr ograms), those measures are deficient, and result
in inconsistencies with the covered agreements, within the meaning of Article 21.5 of the DSU.

53. With the exception of those circumstances set out in Part IV.C of this submission of the
European Communities, in order for Brazil to be able to make a successful claim that the price-
contingent United States marketing loan and c ounter-cyclical payment pr ograms have caused it
serious prejudice, it must be able to evidence that the serious prejudice is actually present.
54. In establishing its claim, Brazil relies on data covering the marketing year 2005 – as well as
additional available data since marketing year 2002, the first marketing year under the FSRI Act
of 2002.
15 Brazil states in its first written submission that in order to establish "present" serious
prejudice the complaining party must use data fro m the most recently completed marketing year. 16
However, the European Communities submits that, in establishing a claim of present serious
prejudice, Members are obliged to rely on the most recent relevant data reasonably available to them.
For instance, the first quarter of the United Stat es' marketing year 2006 for upland cotton runs from
1 August 2006 until 31 October 2006. It is the Euro pean Communities' view that, if the data for the
first quarter of marketing year 2006 was relevant and reasonably available to Brazil, it would have
been obliged to establish any claim of present serious prejudice with reference to that data in its first
written submission on 17 November 2006, a date which is almost three weeks after the end of the first
quarter of marketing year 2006.

55. The United States, as the defending party in this dispute, is also obliged to respond to any
complaint of present serious prejudice with reference to the most recent reasonably available relevant
data. Even if the data for the first quarter of marketing year 2006 had not been reasonably available to
Brazil, but it became reasonably available to the United States in the period between the lodging of
Brazil's first written submission and the lodging of the United States' first written submission, the
United States would be obliged to refer to it in responding to a complaint of present serious prejudice.
The first written submission of a defendi ng party in a matter brought under the DSU is not a rebuttal,
so the defending party is obliged to set out its ar guments and, in responding to any complaint of
present serious prejudice, to refer to the most r ecent reasonably available and relevant data
notwithstanding the data which the complaining party has referred to.

56. Support for the European Communities' appro ach can be seen in the panel's and Appellate
Body's approach to the analogous concept of "pr esent injury" in anti-dumping cases. For instance,
in US – Softwood Lumber VI the panel stated that it must be clear from an authority's determination of
threat of material injury that th e authority has evaluated "how the future will be different from the
immediate
 past, such that the situation of no present ma terial injury will change in the imminent
future to a situation of material injury . . . .". 17 This also applies to consid erations of present injury.
As the panel stated in Mexico – Rice AD Measures:

An authority that fails to examine data that includes the most recent available
information will not be in a position to ma ke judgments about the immediate past.
The same can be said about findings of presen t injury. An authority can only make

15 The United States' marketing year for upland cotton runs from 1 August to 31 July. The 2005
marketing year covered the period from 1 August 2005 until 31 July 2006.
16 Paragraph 212 of Brazil's First Written Submission.
17 Panel Report, US – Softwood Lumber VI, paragraph 7.58.

objective determinations about the present, or the imminent future, if it is examining a
period that includes
 the most recent available information.18
57. The European Communities subm its that the Panel can apply the above reasoning in relation
to "present injury" in anti-dumping cases to the interpretation of "present serious prejudice" in
subsidies cases such as the present case. The two concepts are very similar and have similar objects
and effects within their respective agreements wh ich are annexed to the WTO Agreement. Indeed,
while Article 3.1 of the Anti-Dumping Agreement and Article 15.1 of the SCM Agreement require that
a determination of injury be based on "positive evidence", Article 6.8 of the SCM Agreement states
that the existence of serious prejudice should be determined "on the basis of the information
submitted to or obtained by the panel". The Appe llate Body has confirmed that the reference to
"positive evidence" within the meaning of Article 3.1 of the Anti-Dumping Agreement necessitates a
"sufficiently relevant nexus between the data re lating to the period of investigation and current
injury".
19 Similarly, the existence of "present serious prejudice" can only be properly determined if
such a sufficiently relevant nexus exits between data submitted to or obtained by the Panel and
present serious prejudice.

58. The European Communities would submit that th e more recent the data, the more convincing
will be the demonstration of present serious prejudice. For instance, if the most recently completed
marketing year for which figures are available is from ten years ago then the European Communities
would submit that this would clearly be unreasonabl y old data to be used in calculating whether a
measure constituted "present" serious prejudice. In the majority of cases involving a "marketing year"
the European Communities would expect that the "most recently completed marketing year" would be
interpreted by a panel as meaning the data for th e marketing year directly preceding the current
marketing year, or the data for the quarterly or si x monthly periods in the current marketing year.
Only in very special cases should the Panel consider making an exception to this general principle.

C. T
HREAT OF SERIOUS PREJUDICE

59. In section 8 of Brazil's first written submission, Brazil seems to evidence the threat of serious
prejudice on the basis of "projections" of the United States' subsidy outlays going forward.

60. The European Communities recalls the findings by the original panel with respect to Brazil's
claims of the threat of serious prejudice in those proceedings. In contrasting " threat of serious
prejudice" with "present serious prejudice," the original panel found as follows:

We believe that "threat" of serious prejudice refers to something distinct from serious
prejudice. However, in terms of the ri sing continuum of seriously prejudicing
another Member's interests, that ascends from a "threat" of serious prejudice up to
"serious prejudice," we see "serious prejudice" as necessarily including the concept of
a "threat" and exceeding the presence of a "threat" for purposes of answering the
relevant inquiry. This is confirme d by the text of footnote 13 of the SCM Agreement,
which indicates that serious prejudice "includes" threat of serious prejudice.
20
61. In this respect, the European Communities c oncurs with Brazil's statement in its first written
submission in this case that present serious prejudice would normally be preceded in time by a

18 Panel Report, US - Rice AD Measures, paragraph 4.410. See also: Appellate Body Report, US - Rice
AD Measures, paragraph 167.
19 Appellate Body Report, US - Rice AD Measures, paragraph 167.
20 Panel Report, US – Upland Cotton, paragraph 7.1495.

prejudice that threatens to become serious, and serious prejudice would be the realisation of a threat of
serious prejudice.

62. The text of the cited legal provisions leads th e European Communities to conclude that either
serious prejudice, or threat of serious prejudice, or both in combination, may trigger the remedies
available in Article 7 of the SCM Agreement . The existence of either one, or the other, is both a
necessary and sufficient condition, in and of itself, to achieve this.
21

63. The European Communities ag rees with the original panel' s conclusion that a finding of
present serious prejudice includes the concept of threat of serious prejudice. The European
Communities also agrees with the original pane l's conclusion that a finding of present serious
prejudice is a sufficient condition to trigger th e remedy available in Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement.

V. ALLEGED SO-CALLED "MANDATORY-DISCRETIONARY" DISTINCTION

64. The United States submits that, since Brazil is making an "as such" claim against the US
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment "pr ograms", in order to succeed, Brazil must "show"
that the measure "mandates" a breach of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) or 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement .
The United States does not refer to any provision of WTO law to support its submission. Rather, the
United States asserts that such a requirement "h as been consistently applied in GATT and WTO
dispute settlement proceedings". The United States submits that the panel in the original dispute
appeared to confuse the "mandatory-discretionary" distinction with the different question of whether
something can be challenged as a measure if it has no binding legal effect. The United States further
submits "more specifically" that Brazil would have to demonstrate that the measure mandates actions
"that will necessarily cause the kind of effects allege d by Brazil under Article 6. 3(c) and 6.3(d) of the
SCM Agreement ." According to the United States, the provision in question "simply sets out the
conditions" under which payment will be made, and for that reason does not "mandate" anything; and
thus cannot be WTO inconsistent.
22

65. The European Communities disagrees with th e United States submissions. The European
Communities considers that no such requirement can be derived from the text of the SCM Agreement
or any other WTO agreement, nor from the case la w. The European Communities observes that the
United States does not actually explain what, acco rding to the United States, the content of the
distinction is supposed to be. Evidently, it is no t and cannot be co-extensive with the question of
causation. Nor can it be that a measure is automatically WTO consistent merely because it contains
conditions. Contrary to what the United States subm its, this matter was litigated at length before the
Appellate Body in US-Zeroing, and the arguments of the United States were not accepted.

66. Referring to and summarising its submission in that case, the Europ ean Communities recalls
that the legal basis for, origins, evolution and content of the so-called mandatory/discretionary
doctrine are obscure. The United States cites no legal basis for the alleged rule in the
WTO Agreements. A careful review of past GA TT and WTO panel reports reveals that under the
heading "mandatory/discretionary" one will not in fact find a homogenous, systematic and consistent
articulation of the same point or principle. Rath er, one finds slightly different ideas or concepts,

21 Panel Report, US – Upland Cotton, paragraphs 7.1495 to 7.1497.
22 United States first written submission, paragraphs 196 to 202.

applied to disparate factual situations, and often leading to rather different results.
23 T h e
mandatory/discretionary rule is not anywhere articul ated in the WTO agreements, and certainly not in
the general, abstract and mechanistic terms in whic h it is invoked by the United States. Rather, its
alleged existence is entirely based on the alle ged "consistent practice" of past GATT and WTO
panels. But there is no such "consistent practice".

67. One-by-one, some of the things that it h as from time-to-time been suggested the so-called
mandatory/discretionary rule might stand for have, particularly on review by the Appellate Body,
fallen by the way-side. There is, for example, no need that the measure be adopted by the
"legislature" as opposed to the "executive". Any m easure imputable to a Memb er is susceptible to
review.
24 There is, for example, no need that the measure is "binding" in municipal law. Even "non-
binding" measures are susceptible to review. 25 It is irrelevant, for example, if the measure can be
changed, or how it might be changed. 26 A measure may be inconsistent even if it has not yet been
applied (although evidence of its "as applied" use may evidence a finding of inconsistency). 27 Also
irrelevant is the assertion that the municipal law measure is allegedly susceptible to various
interpretations by the municipal courts.
28

68. The United States has in the past asserted that the "mandatory/discretionary" rule means that
the measure must in all cases require WTO-inconsistent action before it can be impugned. The
European Communities does not agree th at such a rule exists or is to be mechanistically applied.
With the possible exception in practi ce of numbers, it is never possible
 to say that two general and
normative rules not expressed in identical terms will always produce the same result when applied to
any set of facts. It is always possible to imagine a set of facts to which the application of the two rules
will produce different results. This simply results from the fact that there is a penumbra associated
with all language, especially when used in relatively abstract terms. The mechanistic application of
an "in all cases" test thus stands for the propos ition that general municipa l measures should never or
almost never be found "as such" inconsistent; a pr oposition that flatly contradicts the provisions of
the SCM Agreement and the WTO Agreement. In the light of Article XVI:4 of the WTO Agreement
and Article 32.5 of the SCM Agreement , Members must ensure conformity with WTO law, either
through direct effect, or through implementing measures that are themselves in conformity with
WTO law.

69. The European Communities believes that, just as the "mandatory/discretionary" rule is not, in
truth, borne of any abstract basic principle e xpressed in the WTO agreement or elsewhere, but has
rather been puffed-up by dubious assertion based on sp ecific past cases; so we may expect, quite
appropriately, to witness its demise, on a case-by-case basis. The Appellate Body could confirm,

23 See, for example, Mandatory and Discretionary Legislation: the Continued Relevance of the
Distinction under the WTO , Sharif Bhuiyan, Journal of International Economic Law 5(3), 571-604; and The
Mandatory/Discretionary Doctrine in WTO Law, The US-Section 301 Case and its Aftermath , Yoshiko Naiki,
Journal of International Economic Law 7(1), 23-72.
24 Such a requirement was sometimes alleged based on the wording of a GATT Working Party Report
commenting on the GATT Protocol of Provisional Application, suggesting that a "mandatory" measure
"imposes on the executive authority requirements which cannot be modified by executive action". Such an
assertion does not hold good under WTO law (Appellate Body Report, US-Corrosion-Resistant Steel ,
paragraph 81).
25 Appellate Body Report, US-Corrosion-Resistant Steel, paragraph 38 (US "non-binding" argument)
and paragraph 85; Appellate Body Report, Guatemala – Cement I , paragraph 69, footnote 47. The US now
agrees with the EC and the Appellate Body on this point (US first written submission, footnote 286).
26 Appellate Body Report, US-Corrosion-Resistant Steel, paragraph 39 (US "modification" argument)
and paragraphs 81 to 101.
27 Appellate Body Report, US-Corrosion-Resistant Steel, paragraph 82.
28 Appellate Body Report, US-1916 Act, paragraph 90.

once and for all, that there is, in truth, no su ch principle. In the opinion of the European
Communities, that is what it has effectively done by finding that such a "rule" is not to be
mechanistically applied. Alternatively, the Appe llate Body may, in one successive case after another,
explain why the rule does not avert an "as such" fi nding of inconsistency in the particular case.
Whether it's a quick execution or a slow and painful death, the end result is the same. This view is
confirmed by the Appellate Body Report in US-Zeroing.29

29 Appellate Body Report, US-Zeroing, paragraphs 62 and 208 (summarising US argument);
paragraphs 67, 68 and 210 (summarising EC argument) and paragraphs 211 to 214 (Appellate Body findings).

I. INTRODUCTION

1. Japan welcomes the opportunity to present its views to the Compliance Panel in this dispute,
which was brought by Brazil to challenge th e implementation by the United States of the
recommendations and rulings of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) in United States – Subsidies on
Upland Cotton (Upland Cotton).

2. As a third party, Japan's comments stem from its systemic interest in ensuring objective and
consistent interpretation of the WTO agreements , in particular the Agreement on Subsidies and
Countervailing Measures (ASCM) and the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU). Japan would
like to address the following issues discussed in the First Written Submissions of Brazil and the
United States:

• The standards discussed by Brazil for establishing "threat of serious prejudice" under
Part III of the ASCM;

• The U.S. argument that the Panel lacks the authority to issue a ruling where a party
has taken no action to bring a measure into compliance; and

• The importance of ensuring that, when a Member resorts to an outside source or
index, it fully explains its rationale for doing so.

II. ARGUMENT

A. T HE THREAT OF SERIOUS PREJUDICE STANDARDS DISCUSSED BY BRAZIL ARE FLAWED

3. Japan is of the view that the most important i ssue of general interest raised in this dispute is
the appropriate standard for establishing threat of serious prejudice under Part III of the ASCM. 1 As
at least one panel has recognized, neither Article 5(c) nor footnote 13 of the ASCM "defines or
elaborates" on the concept of "serious prejudice" to the interests of another Member, much less the
concept of "threat".2 Reflecting the lack of textual guidance, Brazil discusses two markedly different
standards for adoption by the Panel. First, Braz il presents for adoption a standard of "'significant
likelihood' of serious prejudice in the future". 3 Second, based on the United States position in the
original proceeding, Brazil ascribes to the Unite d States a standard based on Article 15.7 of
the ASCM.4 As explained below, in Japan's view, each proposal has attributes, but ultimately both
are flawed and should be rejected.

4. This issue is exceedingly important and has fa r-reaching implications. Japan asks the Panel to
scrutinize the two proposals, taking into consideration the comments set forth below.

1 See Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, Art. 5(c) and n.13.
2 Korea – Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels , WT/DS273/R (7 March 2005),
para. 7.529.
3 United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton ; Recourse by Brazil to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
WT/DS267, Brazil's First Submission, para. 259.
4 Id. at paras. 254 – 258. See ASCM, Article 15.7.

1. The Proposal Brazil Ascribes to the United States is Flawed – The Threat Standard of
Part V of the Agreement on Subsidies a nd Countervailing Measures Should Not Be
Imported to Part III

5. The standard Brazil ascribes to the United States is drawn from Article 15.7 of the ASCM.
The standard has two-parts as follows:
1. The "change in circumstances which woul d create a situation in which the subsidy
would cause [serious prejudice] must be clearly foreseen and imminent"; and
2. The threat determination "shall be b ased on facts and not merely on allegation,
conjecture or remote possibility".
5

In essence, this proposal would import the threat of material injury standard from Part V to
Part III of the ASCM for the purposes of determining "threat of serious prejudice".

6. As discussed in Section II.B.2. below, Japan agrees that an evidentiary requirement is an
important part of a threat standard. However, as explained below, Japan would reject this legal
standard.

7. Brazil, in its First Submission, demonstrates that textual reasons
6 and practical reasons 7
militate against adopting the "clearly foreseen and i mminent" legal standard. For the sake of brevity,
Japan will not repeat them.

8. There is another important reason to reject this proposal. Parts III and V of the ASCM serve
markedly different purposes. The Part V legal st andard for "threat" reflects this difference and,
therefore, is an inappropriate standard for "thr eat of serious prejudice" under Part III. Part V
addresses countervailing measures. It cabins the di scretion granted to national authorities to conduct
investigations and impose counter vailing duties (CVDs). Article 15 of Part V sets out requirements
for injury determinations by national authorities. Article 15.7, inter alia, establishes a rigorous two-
part standard that must be met before a CVD can be applied on the basis of an alleged "threat" of
material injury. One part of the standard is an evidentiary requirement ensuring that a finding of
"threat" is based on facts. 8 The other part is a strict legal standa rd stating the conditions that must be
met before an affirmative finding of "threat" can be made.9

9. As compared to the concept of actual "injury" , the concept of "threat of material injury" by
nature is less defined. Indeed, in the anti-dum ping context, the Appellate Body has referred to
"threat" findings as involving "intrinsic uncertainty".10 In Part V of the ASCM, Articles 15.7 and 15.8
address this difference. Along with the exhortation of Article 15.8 that national authorities exercise
"special care" in threat cases, the two parts of th e Article 15.7 standard work together to limit the
discretion of national authorities and guarantee against misuse.11

5Id.
6 Id., para. 255.
7 Id., para. 256.
8 See ASCM, Article 15.7, first sentence.
9 Id., second sentence.
10 Mexico – Anti-Dumping Investigation of High Fructose Corn Syrup (H FCS) from the United States;
Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the United States, WT/DS132/AB/RW (22 October 2001), para. 85.
11 See, e.g., United States – Investigation of the International Trade Commission in Softwood Lumber
from Canada; Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by Canada , WT/DS277/AB/RW (13 April 2006), para. 96
(Article 15.7 of the ASCM "enjoin[s] a panel to scrutinize carefully the inferences and explanations of the

10. The original Panel in this proceeding properly recognized that ASCM Part V, for a variety of
reasons, may not be proper context for interpreting and applying Part III. 12 The Panel recognized the
significant differences in the purposes and instrument s of Part III, which addresses WTO claims of
"serious prejudice", and Part V, which addresses na tional authorities' conduct of CVD investigations
and imposition of CVDs, even though both Part III and Part V address subsidies.

11. In this specific case, Part III issues are completely devoid of concerns relating to limiting the
discretion of national authorities to prevent mi suse thereof in the conduct of domestic CVD
investigations set forth above that apply to Part V. In a "threat of serious prejudice" claim under
Part III, the provisions and standards are applied by panels and the AB. No national authority is
involved.

12. The Panel should reject the standard Brazil as cribes to the United States for this reason, as
well as those set out by Brazil in paragraphs 255-256 of its Firs t Submission relating to textual
analysis of ASCM Article 5(c), accompanying note 13 and Article 15.7 and to the possible effect of
precluding remedies for certain types of subsidy programs.

2. Brazil's Proposed Standard Does Not Exp licitly Include an Evidentiary Requirement

13. Brazil proposes a separate, less stringent st andard for establishing "threat of serious
prejudice". Brazil proposes that the Panel find that a "threat of serious prejudice" exists where there is
a "'significant likelihood' of serious prejudice in th e future."13 As an initial matter, Japan notes that
this proposal is incomplete as it does not include an explicit evidentiary requirement.
14 An explicit
evidentiary requirement such as that set fort h in the first sentence of ASCM Article 15.7 15 is a crucial
component of any "threat" standard. It is necessary to tie to real world facts what otherwise is an
amorphous concept.

investigating authority in order to ensure that any projections or assumptions made by it, as to likely future
occurrences, are adequately explained and supported by positive evidence on the record" (emphasis added;
referring also to Article 3.7 of the Agreement on Impl ementation of Article VI of the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade 1994 (AD Agreement)) citing United States – Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh,
Chilled or Frozen Lamb Meat from New Zealand and Australia , WT/DS177, 178/AB/R (1 May 2001),
para. 136; Mexico – Anti-Dumping Investigation of High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) from the United States;
Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the United States, WT/DS132/AB/RW (22 October 2001), para. 85.
Panels have rigorously applied the standard governing "threat" in the safeguard context under
Articles 4.1(b) and 4.2(a) of the Agreement on Safeguards and in the anti-dumping context under Article 3.7 of
the AD Agreement. See, e.g., Argentina – Definitive Safeguard Measure on Imports of Preserved Peaches ,
WT/DS238/R (14 February 2003), paras. 7.83 – 7.133 (rejecting affirmative threat finding of national
authority); Chile – Price Band System and Safeguard Measures Relating to Certain Agricultural Products ,
WT/DS207/R (3 May 2002), paras. 7.163 – 7.174 (same); Argentina – Safeguard Measures on Imports of
Footwear, WT/DS121/R (25 June 1999), paras. 8.281 – 8.286 (same); Mexico – Anti-Dumping Investigation of
High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) from the United States; Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the
United States, WT/DS132/AB/RW (22 October 2001), paras. 76 – 101 (upholding Panel's rejection of national
authority's affirmative threat finding).
12 See, e.g., United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton , WT/DS267/R (8 September 2004),
para. 7.1167.
14 Japan notes, however, that, after setting out the proposed standard, Brazil lis ts a number of factors
for consideration, which indicates an appreciation of the evidentiary concerns raised by the amorphous nature of
15 See also Agreement on Safeguards, Article 4.1(b) ("A de termination of the existence of a threat of
serious injury shall be based on facts and not merely on allegation, conjecture or remote possibility");
AD Agreement, Article 3.7 ("A determination of a threat of material injury shall be based on facts and not
merely on allegation, conjecture or remote possibility").

14. Japan recognizes that this position could be criticized as inappropriately importing a provision
from Part V, contrary to (or inconsistent with) Jap an's argument in Section II.A.1. above. However,
in this instance, the importation makes sense. Any type of threat determination – whether it be of
serious prejudice, material injury or serious injury – must be grounded in fact.

15. Turning to Brazil's proposed legal standard – "significant likelihood" – Japan is of the view
that the standard is more balanced than the lega l standard of Article 15.7 of the ASCM. However,
Brazil's proposed standard offers little concrete guidance – what, exactly, constitutes a significant
likelihood? Japan notes that panels previously have had occasion to discuss "likely" and "likelihood".
In a proceeding involving the AD Agreement, the panel examined the meaning of "likely" as it is used
in Article 11.2 in the phrase "whether the inju ry would be likely to continue or recur".
16 In a later
proceeding, a panel examining a threat determin ation under Article 4.1(b) of the Agreement on
Safeguards examined the phrase "clearly imminent", concluding that it signaled that an affirmative
threat finding required the existence of a "high degr ee of likelihood that the an ticipated serious injury
will materialize in the very near future." 17 The inclusion of the word "s ignificant" suggests a stricter
standard than that examined by the panel in U.S. – DRAMS and comes closer to a "high degree of
likelihood" as discussed in Preserved Peaches , but the question remains as to what exactly would
constitute a "significant likelihood". In any case, the se earlier panel reports might be of assistance in
evaluating Brazil's proposal.

3. Final Comments on Threat of Serious Prejudice

16. When the Panel addresses the issue of the appropriate standard for "threat of serious
prejudice", Japan understands it will proceed in accord ance with Article 3.2 of the DSU and Section 3
of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

17. In addition, Japan asks the Panel to consider th at the "threat" standard must be applicable to
circumstances that are very different from those in this case. As Brazil notes, the standard must not,
by its very structure, ignore an entire class of thr eat cases, especially cases in which serious prejudice
had been established in an earlier proceeding.
18 At the same time, though, the standard must be strict
enough to discourage specious threat claims.

B. T
HE U.S. ARGUMENT THAT THE PANEL LACKS THE AUTHORITY TO ISSUE A RULING WHERE
A PARTY HAS TAKEN NO ACTION TO BRING A MEASURE INTO COMPLIANCE IS FLAWED AND
SHOULD BE REJECTED

18. The United States argues that the Panel lack s the authority to address Brazil's arguments
regarding the U.S. Marketing Loan Program and Countercyclical Program.
19 Under scrutiny, the U.S.
argument reduces to a position that is indefensible – the U.S. would subject to Article 21.5 review a
Member that in good faith attempts to alter a non-compliant measure to bring it into compliance, but
would insulate from Article 21.5 review a Member that takes no action to bring a non-compliant
measure into conformity with WTO provisions.

16 See United States – Anti-Dumping Duty on Dynamic Random Access Memory Semiconductors
(DRAMS) of One Megabit or Above from Korea, WT/DS99/R (29 January 1999), paras. 6.44-6.51.
17 Argentina – Definitive Safeguard Measure on Imports of Preserved Peaches , WT/DS238/R
(14 February 2003), para. 7.120.
18 Cf. Brazil's First Submission, paras. 256-258.
19 See U.S. First Submission, paras. 45 – 48; see also id., paras. 49 – 56.

19. The United States cites the Appellate Body re port in EC – Bed Linen 21.5 to support its
position20, but the citation is unavailing. The U.S. char acterization of the Appellate Body report is
questionable. The most pertinent part of the report is the following statement:

87. We conclude, therefore, that, in the se Article 21.5 proceedings, India has raised
the same claim under Article 3.5 relating to "other factors" as it did in the original
proceedings. In doing so, India seeks to cha llenge an aspect of the original measure
which has not changed, and which the European Communities did not have to
change, in order to comply with the DSB recommendations and rulings to make that
measure consistent with the European Communities' WTO obligations.21
Thus, the situation in EC – Bed Linens 21.5 is not analogous to the instant proceeding.

20. The U.S. argument, if accepted, could cr eate an endless loop of litigation where a Member
refused to alter a measure found to be non- compliant. By cutting off access to review under
Article 21.5, the U.S. argument would require the Me mber that won the original challenge to bring a
separate dispute regarding the unchanged measure. In Japan's view, this result is to be avoided.

21. Japan asks the Panel to reject this U.S. argument.
C. C
ONCERNS RAISED BY THE PARTIES' USE OF OUTSIDE SOURCES

22. In a case as complex as Upland Cotton , the parties of necessity resort to non-WTO related
sources to advance their positions. To ensure that each outside source is properly used, panels and the
Appellate Body should scrutinize each source and its relationship to the proposition it is alleged to
support.

23. This proceeding presents many examples of th is practice. Japan wishes to focus on two in
particular – Brazil's reliance on the OECD Arra ngement on Officially Supported Export Credits
(OECD Arrangement)
22 and the U.S. use of a report by the International Cotton Advisory Committee
(ICAC).23

1. Brazil's Use of the OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits

24. Brazil relies on the OECD Arrangement for the limited purpose of establishing that fees for
Export Credit Guarantees (ECGs) under the U.S. Gene ral Sales Manager (GSM) 102 program are less
than the minimum premium rates (MPRs) in the Ar rangement (and, to simplify Brazil's argument, are
thus below market).
24

25. In Japan's view, the OECD Arrangement appear s to be an inappropriate reference in this
proceeding. First, the OECD Arrangement does no t cover agricultural products. Second, as Brazil
recognizes elsewhere (in explaining its use of a nother outside index), the risks of financing
arrangements for bulk agricultural commodity products , such as cotton, are not only substantial, but

20 Id., para. 46, citing European Communities – Anti-Dumping Duties on Imports of Cotton-Type Bed
Linen from India; Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by India, WT/DS141/AB/RW (24 April 2003), para. 87.
21 EC – Bed Linens – 21.5 AB, para. 87 (first emphasis in original; second emphasis added).
22 See Brazil's First Submission, paras. 438 – 443, citin g Exhibit Bra – 546 (OECD document TD/PG
(2005) 38/FINAL, 5 December 2005).
23 See U.S. First Submission, para. 60, quoting "Cotton: Review of the World Situation", ICAC, p. 11
(May – June 2006) (BRA – 485).
24 See Brazil's First Submission, paras. 438 – 443.

also unique. Brazil notes that the tenor for Lette r of Credit Insurance (LCI) granted by the
Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank) is capped at 180 days for bulk agricultural
products.
25 Furthermore, the scope of application of the OECD Arrangement is export credits with
repayment terms of two years or more. Thus, Brazil's use of the OECD Arrangement in this case is
inappropriate.

26. Japan urges the Panel to closely examine Brazil's rationale for its use of the OECD
Arrangement MPRs.

2. The U.S. Use of the Internationa l Cotton Advisory Committee Report

27. Japan also takes issue with th e use by the United States of an ICAC report. The United States
quotes the ICAC report for the proposition that, foll owing the 1 July 2005 modifications, the U.S.
government's export credit guarantee programs "'comply with the WTO ruling.'"
26

28. The ICAC is not empowered to determine whether a WTO Member's measures comply with
a WTO provision or whether changes to a non-compliant measure have brought the measure into
compliance. Therefore, Japan is of the view that c itations such as this are not relevant to the instant
dispute.

29. Japan urges the Panel to closely exam ine the U.S. use of the ICAC Report.

III. CONCLUSION

30. Japan respectfully request s the Compliance Panel to exam ine carefully the facts and
arguments presented by Brazil and the United States in light of the comments above, in order to
ensure objective and consistent in terpretation of the WTO agreements, particularly the ASCM and
the DSU. We welcome any questions that the Panel may have regarding this submission.

25 See Brazil's First Submission, paras. 387 and 389.
26 See U.S. First Submission, para. 60, quoting "Cotton: Review of the World Situation", ICAC, p. 11
(May – June 2006) (BRA – 485) (emphasis added by United States).

ANNEX A-10

THIRD PARTY SUBMISSION OF NEW ZEALAND

(5 January 2007)

CONTENTS

Page

I. INTRODUCTION 80

II. THE FINDINGS IN QUESTION AND THE ALLEGED MEASURES OF
IMPLEMENTATION
 80

III. DSU ARTICLE 21.5 AND SCM AGREEMENT ARTICLE 7.8 81

IV. THE PRELIMINARY RULINGS CLAIM 82

A. T
HE PAYMENTS/PROGRAMMES DISTINCTION 82

B. T
HE "MEASURES TAKEN TO COMPLY" ARGUMENT 83

V. THE SUBSTANTIVE CLAIMS 83

A. T HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT THE IMPACT OF THE REMOVAL OF STEP 2
PAYMENTS IS NOT "RELATIVELY MODEST" 84

B. T
HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL
PAYMENTS PROGRAMMES DO NOT MANDATE A BREACH OF THE
WTO AGREEMENTS 86

C. T
HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT BRAZIL HAS FAILED TO MAKE A PRIMA FACIE
CASE OF WTO INCONSISTENCY OF THE MARKETING LOAN AND
COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS PROGRAMMES 86

1. Counter-cyclical Payments 86

2. Marketing Loan Payments 87

3. Marketing Loan and Counter-Cyclical Payment Programmes and Market
Signals 88

4. The Reliability of the Econometric Modelling 89

5. Increase in the World Market Share 90

VI. CONCLUSION 90

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The rulings and recommendations of the panel and of the Appellate Body in United States –
Subsidies on Upland Cotton adopted by the Dispute Settlement Body ("DSB") on 21 March 2005
constituted an important step in the interpreta tion and application of the provisions of the Agreement
on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures ("SCM Agreement") in respect of both prohibited and
actionable subsidies. In particular it clarified the meaning and scope of the concept of serious
prejudice in Article 6 of the SCM Agreement. Ne w Zealand was a third party in that case because of
its systemic interest in the integrity of these provisions. As a leading agricultural exporter
New Zealand has a particular interest in the app lication of the subsidies disciplines to agricultural
products. Thus, New Zealand welcomed the adoption of the panel and Appellate Body reports.

1.02 Brazil now brings the matter of United Stat es subsidies in respect of upland cotton back under
Article 21.5 of the Dispute Settlement Understandi ng (DSU). Brazil argues that the United States
action and inaction in respect of the recommendations and rulings of the DSB puts it in violation of its
obligations under Articles 5 and 7.8 of the SCM Agre ement. Failure by the United States to remove
the adverse effects or withdraw the subsidisi ng measures as required by Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement, calls into question the very viabilit y of the disciplines in that Agreement. As a
result, New Zealand is exercising its right as a third party in this Article 21.5 compliance proceeding.

1.03 In New Zealand's view, the decision of the panel in this case will have far-reaching
implications. Not only is the fact of non-complian ce a threat to the subsidy disciplines of the SCM
Agreement, but the arguments put forward by the Un ited States in its response to the claim of Brazil
have serious systemic implications for the future application of the SCM Agreement. New Zealand
will elaborate on this aspect throughout this submission.

II. THE FINDINGS IN QUESTION AND THE ALLEGED MEASURES OF
IMPLEMENTATION

2.01 In this submission New Zealand will focu s on the implementation of the recommendations
and rulings of the DSB in respect of the subsidie s that were found by the panel in the original
proceedings to be actionable. The relevant part of the panel's findings is paragraph 8.1(g)(i) which
provides:

the effect of the mandatory price-contingent United States subsidy measures –
marketing loan programme payments, u ser marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA
payments and CCP payments - is significant price suppression in the same world
market within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement constituting
serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the
SCM Agreement;
2.02 In paragraph 8.3 the panel went on to say in r espect of its finding in paragraph 8.1(g)(i), that
in light of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement th e United States was under an obligation to "take
appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects … or withdraw the subsidy". The Appellate Body
expressly upheld the finding of the panel in paragraph 8.1(g)(i).

2.03 As Brazil has pointed out, the only action taken by the United States in implementing the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB on 21 Marc h 2005 has been the abolition of user marketing
(Step 2) payments. The progra mmes under the Farm Security and Rural Investment ("FSRI") Act
of 2002 providing for marketing loan payments a nd counter-cyclical payments remain. Since these
were the major contributors to the price suppr ession and hence the serious prejudice found by the
panel then, as Brazil argues, the United States has fail ed to remove the adverse effects as required by
Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement and thus remains in violation of Article 5 of the SCM Agreement.

2.04 The United States response falls into two br oad areas. First, the United States argues that
certain claims made by Brazil are outside the scope of DSU Article 21.5 proceedings and requests that
the panel make preliminary rulings to that effect . Second the United States claims that Brazil has
failed to show that in the absen ce of the Step 2 payments, the ma rketing loan and counter-cyclical
programmes cause serious prejudice either through price suppression or through an increase in world
market share. In New Zealand's view both of these arguments are flawed. In this submission,
New Zealand will provide some comments on the United States claims. In respect of the request for
preliminary rulings, New Zealand will focus on the cl aim that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
programs are outside the scope of these Article 21.5 proceedings.

III. DSU ARTICLE 21.5 AND SCM AGREEMENT ARTICLE 7.8

3.01 Before addressing the United States preliminary rulings claim, New Zealand wishes to make
some comments on the uniqueness of this case and the importance of its implications. This
Article 21.5 proceeding involves for the first time the question of compliance in respect of the
obligation under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement either to withdraw the subsidy or to "take
appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects". He nce this panel is faced with the interpretation of
both DSU Article 21.5 and Article 7.8 of the SCM Ag reement and with determining their relationship
to each other.

3.02 DSU Article 21.5 mandates a panel to consid er "the existence or consistency of measures
taken to comply with the recommendations and ruli ngs" of the DSB. As the Appellate Body has
pointed out, this provision entitles a panel to determ ine whether any measures exist to implement the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB.
1 However, when compliance with Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement is raised in an Article 21.5 proceedi ng, it is not just a question of the existence of
measures or of their consistency with the recomme ndations and rulings of the DSB that has to be
considered. If the subsidising measures in question have not been withdrawn then there is the further
question of whether "appropriate steps" have been taken to remove the adverse effects of those
measures.

3.03 In New Zealand's view, an enquiry to dete rmine whether Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement
has been complied with can involve a panel in looking at three things. First, a panel must determine
whether the subsidising measures have been withdr awn. Second, if those measures have not been
withdrawn, then the panel must consider whether any steps have been taken to remove the adverse
effects. Third, if the panel finds that steps have b een taken to remove the adverse effects, then it must
determine whether those steps are "appropriate".

3.04 In New Zealand's view, the steps would only be "appropriate" if they are capable of removing
the adverse effects. The Oxford English Dictionary defines "appropriate" as meaning "specially
fitted, suitable, proper".
2 A measure that is not capable of achieving its objective of removing the
adverse effects would be neither suitable nor appr opriate. As a consequence, steps taken by an
implementing Member that are not capable of removi ng the adverse effects would not be "appropriate
steps" within the meaning of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.

1 Appellate Body Report, United States – Tax Treatment for "Foreign Sales Corporations" – Second
Recourse to Article 21.5 of the DSU by the European Communities , WT/DS108/AB/RW2, 14 March 2006,
para. 93.
2 The Oxford English Dictionary (2nd Edition) – Volume I, Clarendon Press, Oxford: 1989, p. 586.

IV. THE PRELIMINARY RULINGS CLAIM

4.01 The United States claims that marketing loans and counter-cyclical programmes under
the FSRI are "outside the scope" of the Article 21.5 proceeding. The United States presents
two arguments in this respect. First, it argues that the DSB ruling covered only certain "payments"
under those programmes, not the programmes themselves. Second, the United States argues that these
programmes do not constitute "measures taken to co mply" with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB and hence they fall outside the scope of DSU Article 21.5. In New Zealand's view both
arguments are unsupportable. Moreover, if these arguments were to be upheld, the actionable subsidy
regime under the SCM Agreement would be completely undermined.

4.02 New Zealand notes that the United States also requests a preliminary ruling that Brazil's claim
that no action was taken by the United States in im plementation of the recommendations and rulings
of the DSB between 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006 is also outside the scope of these
proceedings. On this matter, however, Brazil is undoubtedly correct. The United States cannot claim
that since it took no implementing action until 1 August 2006, that period is outside the scope of these
proceedings. DSU Article 21.5 applies to the "exist ence" of measures not just to the consistency of
measures actually taken to comply with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

A. T
HE PAYMENTS/PROGRAMMES DISTINCTION

4.03 The United States claim that the panel's findi ng in paragraph 8.1(g)(i) is limited to specific
payments and did not cover the programmes that au thorise those payments involves a rewriting of the
panel's findings. The United States seeks to revise the finding of the panel in light of certain
arguments made by Brazil in the panel proceedings , but there is no justification for rewriting the
conclusions of the panel in this way.

4.04 An examination of the panel's finding indicates that the United States contention simply has
no basis. In paragraph 8.1(g)(i) the panel made a finding about "the effect of the mandatory price-
contingent United States subsidy measures". The finding was that these measures constituted
"significant price suppression". The descriptive refe rence to "marketing loan programme payments,
user marketing (Step 2) payments, MLA payments and CCP payments" does not alter the nature of
the finding. Payments are not mandatory subsidy m easures; they are simply the means by which the
subsidy measures are implemented.

4.05 Moreover, it is quite clear that the panel's analysis of the subsidy measures that caused price
suppression was of the programmes under the FSRI under which payments are made. The panel
determined that the marketing loan payments ar e mandatory by reference to the "text of the
measure".
3 The "measure" here is the marketing loan programme, not the payment itself. The panel
states, "the structure, design and operation of th e marketing loan programme has enhanced production
and trade-distorting effects" 4. Again, it is the programme under which the payments were made that
was being considered by the panel, not just specific payments.

4.06 The United States claims th at the statement of the panel in paragraph 7.1501 that "the
United States is obliged to take action concerni ng its present statutory and regulatory framework as a
result of our ‘present' serious prejudice finding" is not a recommendation of the panel, and thus
presumably is not binding on the United States. What this argument ignores, however, is that
although not a recommendation as such, the statement is relevant to understanding the findings of the

3 Panel Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton WT/DS267/R, 8 September 2004,
paragraph 7.1291.
4 Ibid, paragraph 7.1295.

panel. It gives meaning to the finding in paragr aph 8.1(g)(i) relating to the "United States subsidy
measures" that constituted significant price suppression.

4.07 In short, read properly in the context of the panel's decision as a whole, the finding in
paragraph 8.1(g)(i) is not limited to the specifi c payments in MY 1999-2002. It applies to the
measures under which those payments are authorised and hence to the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical programmes themselves.

4.08 Moreover, the United States distinction be tween payments and programmes leads to an
absurd result. It means that serious prejudice would have to be proved annually in the light of
payments that have been made by which time the adverse effects have already occurred and it would
be too late to withdraw the measure that caused th em. To argue that the panel was referring only to
payments in MY 2002 makes nonsense out the pane l's own reference to Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement and to the requirement to withdraw the subsidy. How can a subsidy be withdrawn if
in fact the subsidy is over and the subsidizing e ffect is past? The United States arguments would
simply undermine the disciplines on actionable subsidies in the SCM Agreement.

B. T
HE "MEASURES TAKEN TO COMPLY" ARGUMENT

4.09 The United States also argues that the ma rketing loan and counter-cyclical payments
programmes are outside the scope of these Article 21.5 proceedings because they are not "measures
taken to comply with the recommendations and rulin gs" of the DSB. According to the United States,
"Article 21.5 applies only with respect to a disagr eement as to the existenc e or consistency of a
measure taken to comply", hence it cannot apply to programmes that existed at the time the matter
came before the original panel and are unchanged. Under the United States logic, any such challenge
to these measures has to be the subject of a new complaint.

4.10 In New Zealand's view, the United States argum ent ignores the fact that Article 21.5 is not the
only relevant provision in these proceedings. In respect of the panel's finding under
paragraph 8.1(g)(i), the obligation on the United States is found in Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.
This provision grants the United States the choice e ither to withdraw the measures in question or to
remove the adverse effects. Having chosen not to withdraw the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments programmes, the United States cannot now avoid its obligation under Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement to remove the adverse effects of those subsidy programmes by claiming that they are
not measures taken to comply within the meaning of DSU Article 21.5. The United States cannot use
the provisions of Article 21.5 to nullify its obligation under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.

4.11 As pointed out in paragraphs 3.03 a nd 3.04 above, in applying Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement to the present case the panel has to determine whether the measures causing serious
prejudice have been withdrawn. In the case of the marketing loan and the counter-cyclical payments
programmes they have not been withdrawn. The pa nel must then determine whether steps have been
taken to remove the adverse effects found to exist by the original panel. It must then determine
whether any steps that have been taken are "appropri ate", that is whether they are measures that are
capable of removing the adverse ef fects. DSU Article 21.5 cannot be invoked, as the United States
seeks to do in this case, as a barrier to the panel conducting such an analysis.

V. THE SUBSTANTIVE CLAIMS

5.01 Brazil argues that even in the absence of the Step 2 payments programme, marketing loan
payments and counter-cyclical payments alone cause significant price suppression. Indeed, Brazil
argues that the removal of the Step 2 programme could increase counter-cyclical payments, thus
adding to the significant price depression. Brazil also argues that marketing loan and counter-cyclical

payments threaten to cause serious injury in MY 2006 and beyond. New Zealand supports these
claims.

5.02 The United States response falls into three broad categories. First the United States argues
that Brazil has not substantiated its claim that the effect of the Step 2 payments on price suppression
was "relatively modest". Second the United States cl aims that Brazil is in effect arguing that the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments per se violate the WTO Agreements, and that this
could only occur if the programmes "mandate a breach " of those agreements, which the United States
claims that they do not. Thirdly, the United States argues that Brazil has failed to make a prima facie
case of the WTO inconsistency of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes.

5.03 New Zealand will comment on each of these arguments, but before doing so will make a
preliminary observation about the implications of the United States arguments in the context of an
Article 21.5 case where the central question is whethe r there has been compliance with Article 7.8 of
the SCM Agreement.

5.04 The essence of the arguments of the United States is that Brazil has the burden of showing
that in the light of the removal of the Step 2 payments programme the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments programmes cause or threaten ser ious prejudice, and it has failed to meet that
burden. There is no doubt that as complainant in this Article 21.5 proceeding Brazil bears the burden
of proof.
5 The question is what does such a burden entail?

5.05 In the present case, the DSB recommendations and rulings of 21 Ma rch 2005 covered three
programmes; the Step 2 payments programme, th e marketing loan payments programme and the
counter-cyclical payments programme. But having c hosen to remove only one of those programmes,
the United States now claims that Brazil has the burden of showing that the remaining two
programmes cause serious prejudice. Thus, in substance the United States is claiming that Brazil
must prove again what it had already proved and wh at has been already been found by the original
panel to cause serious prejudice. This cannot be the intent of either DSU Article 21.5 or Article 7.8 of
the SCM Agreement. A Member should not have the burden of proving something that has already
been decided by the original panel.

5.06 In New Zealand's view, Article 7.8 of th e SCM Agreement operates to distribute the burden
of proof somewhat differently. Since an implemen ting Member has the option of either withdrawing
the subsidising measure or removing the adverse effects, a Member that fails to withdraw the measure
in question then should have the burden of showing that it has removed the adverse effects. Thus, in
the present case proof by Brazil that the measures found by the original panel to cause adverse effects
have not been withdrawn should establish a prima facie case that implementation has not occurred
and the burden should then shift to the United States to prove that the adverse effects caused by those
subsidising measures have been removed.

A. T
HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT THE IMPACT OF THE REMOVAL OF STEP 2 PAYMENTS IS
NOT "RELATIVELY MODEST"

5.07 Much of the United States argument that Br azil is incorrect in treating the impact of the
removal of Step 2 payments as "relatively modest" is focused on what it perceived Brazil to be
arguing before the original panel. But this is simply not relevant. Rather, it is what the panel decided
and the actual impact of the removal of the Step 2 payment programme that is relevant. The original
panel concluded that the marketi ng loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes contributed to

5 Appellate Body Report, United States – Measure Affecting Imports of Woven Wool Shirts and Blouses
from India, WT/DS33/AB/R, 25 April 1997, p. 14.

price suppression and serious prejudice. In its Firs t Written Submission Brazil has demonstrated that
notwithstanding the withdrawal of the Step 2 pa yments programme, payments under the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes caused price suppression in the world market in
MY 2005 and an increase in United States world ma rket share in upland cotton in MY 2005. Thus,
there is serious prejudice within the meaning of SCM Article 5(c).

5.08 The United States claim about the significan ce of the removal of the Step 2 payments
programme is undermined by a comparison of th e amounts paid under the various programmes.
Step 2 payments are small compared to marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments. In the most
recent year, 2005, for example, the Step 2 payments amounted to US$350 million. In the same year,
the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programme payments amounted to US$2,170 million. 6
Similar ratios existed in most other years. There is no doubt that the removal of the Step 2 payment
programme had some impact, but the United States cannot ignore the much larger volume of
subsidisation under the two programmes that have not been withdrawn or modified.

5.09 The United States also seeks to counter Brazi l's argument that eliminating Step 2 payments
could result in a higher counter-cyclical payment rate by arguing that in the current year there could
not be any increase in counter-cyclical payments. But, this is because counter-cyclical payments are
already at their maximum rate.
7 In other words, the United States is not arguing that the counter-
cyclical programme would not compensate for the elimination of the Step 2 payments; rather, it is
arguing that payments are already so high that unde r current conditions no further payments can be
made. None of this supports the United States c ontention that the programme does not have a price
suppressing effect.

5.10 The United States also contends that Brazil fa ils to recognize that the elimination of Step 2
payments will result in a lowering of marketing lo an payments. While this may be true because
marketing loan payments are configured on world prices, which would increase with the elimination
of Step 2 payments, what the argument ignores is the fact that these programmes are distorting
whether or not payments are made under them. It is the programmes themselves not the payments
that create expectations. Producers know that the lo an rate is there to support them, that there is a
target price 8 that they will receive either from the market or from the government. Neither the
elimination of Step 2 payments nor any lowering of marketing loan payments in fact diminishes the
distorting effect of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes.

5.11 Finally, even the United States own figures s how that the impact of the elimination of the
Step 2 payment programme is modest. On one occas ion it cites an increase of 0.4c/lb in the adjusted
world price or $2.25 per ha 9 and on another occasion it cites an increase in the world price of 1.4c/1b
or $2.30 per ha.10 By comparison with the futures price in 2005-2006 (52.9-59.35 cents per pound) 11,
loan rate (52 cents per pound)12 or target price in the same period (72.4 cents per pound) 13, this effect
on world prices of the elimination of the Step 2 payment programme is indeed "relatively modest".

6 United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton – Recourse by Brazil to Article 21.5 of the DSU
(DS267), First Written Submission of Brazil, 17 No vember 2006, ("Brazil First Written Submission"),
para. 111, and Table 6.
7 United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton – Recourse by Brazil to Article 21.5 of the DSU (DS267),
First Submission and Request for Preliminary Rulings of the United States, 15 December 2006, ("United States
First Written Submission"), para. 162.
8 United States First Written Submission, para. 161.
9 United States First Written Submission, para. 174.
10 United States First Written Submission, para. 169.
11 United States First Written Submission, para. 231.
12 Ibid.
13 United States First Written Submission, para. 161.

5.12 The United States arguments leave intact the f undamental point made by Brazil, that even in
the absence of the Step 2 payment programme, the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes
still result in significant price suppression within the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement
and thus cause serious prejudice contrary to Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement.

B. T
HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS
PROGRAMMES DO NOT MANDATE A BREACH OF THE WTO AGREEMENTS

5.13 The United States claims that Brazil cannot ch allenge the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments programmes unless it can show that these programmes mandate a breach of the WTO
agreements. In the United States view, to do so Brazil would have to show that these programmes
mandated actions that must lead to the effect of causing serious prejudice to Brazil, and Brazil has not
done so.

5.14 Once again, the United States is ignoring the fact that the original panel had already
determined that payments under the programmes in question caused serious prejudice to Brazil.
Equally, the United States is ignoring the fact th at the question in this case is not whether the
programmes in question require th at adverse effects are caused to Brazil, but whether the
United States has taken appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects found by the original panel to
exist as a result of the operation of these programmes. In this context, the mandatory/discretionary
distinction called in aid by the United States is simply irrelevant.

C. T
HE UNITED STATES CLAIM THAT BRAZIL HAS FAILED TO MAKE A PRIMA FACIE CASE OF
WTO INCONSISTENCY OF THE MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER -CYCLICAL PAYMENTS
PROGRAMMES

5.15 As pointed out earlier, the United States ar guments on the WTO-consistency of the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes are tantamount to placing on Brazil a burden to
prove once again what it had already proved before the original panel. In New Zealand's view such an
approach to the application of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement risks depriving the actionable
subsidies provisions of the SCM Agreement of thei r proper effect. Furthermore, New Zealand sees
many of the arguments of the United States as attemp ts to reargue what it argued before the original
panel, and lost. Again, such an approach is cons istent with the objectives of neither DSU Article 21.5
nor Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.

1. Counter-cyclical Payments

5.16 The United States attempts to counter Brazil' s arguments about the trade-distorting effects of
counter-cyclical payments by blurring the line between counter-cyclical payments and decoupled
payments. Thus, it cites studies relating to decoupled payments and says that they provide "valuable
insights".
14 The United States also refers to studies concerning general wealth risks 15, as if they were
equally applicable to the revenue risk that c ounter-cyclical payments are concerned with, again
treating counter-cyclical payments as co-extensive with decoupled payments. But counter-cyclical
payments are not real decoupled payments.

5.17 Real decoupled payments are green box measures and as defined in Annex 2 of the
Agreement on Agriculture cannot be linked to the type or volume of production (paragraph 6(b)), or
be related to or based on prices (paragraph 6(c)). Counter-cyclical payments, by contrast, are clearly
and explicitly linked to prices. The fact that in many years such paymen ts are likely to be paid out at

14 United States First Written Submission, para. 213.
15 United States First Written Submission, para. 209.

the maximum rate 16 does not change the fact that they are linked to prices. The question is what
would farmers do differently if there were no counter-cyclical payments and farmers were, essentially,
"guaranteed" 13.73c/lb less for their cotton? Counter-cyclical payments are clearly not green box
measures and hence are presumptively trade distorting.

5.18 The same fallacy of linking counter-cyclical payments to decoupled payments is found in the
United States arguments about the increase in wealth from counter-cyclical payments accruing to non-
operator landlords and hence capitalised into higher land values.
17 While this is certainly true of real
decoupled payments, it is simply not plausible in the case of counter-cyclical payments. What
producer is going agree to the "modified rental arrangements" that the United States refers to 18, when
counter-cyclical payments could be at 13.73 c/lb one year and at zero the next?

2. Marketing Loan Payments

5.19 The United States claims that Brazil has faile d to demonstrate that marketing loan payments
are having significant price-distorting effects. Yet the proposition that market ing loan payments are
distorting is almost self-evident. Marketing loan payments are amber box measures, the category in
which are included the non-prohibited measures with the most distorting effect on production and
trade.

5.20 Moreover, the United States arguments about marketing loan payments ignore once again that
it is the expectations of producers that are important and that those expectations are generated because
of the existence of the applied administrative prices under the marketing loan programme, not because
of the financial transfers in any year. Thus, the United States argument that since cotton futures prices
in MY 2006 were higher than the loan rate then the loan rate would have no effect on producers
planting decisions
19 misses the point. First, the loan rate w ill not always be below the futures prices;
in some years there have been large amounts paid out under the marketing loan programme. 20
Second, the programme offers a guarantee by the government that producers will receive a particular
price whether they are involved in the futures market or not.

5.21 Furthermore, the United States claims that at the time of planting producers " did not expect "
that they would receive these payments on harvest
21 is a clever play on the word "expect". No doubt
producers hoped that they would receive a higher pri ce. But what they certa inly expected was that
they would receive at least the guaranteed price of 52c/lb, regardless of what happened in the market
place, because that is what the law mandated. As the Appellate Body pointed out in the original
proceeding22:

… although farmers had expected higher prices in making their planting decisions,
they were also aware that if actual prices were ultimately lower, they would be
"insulated"
23 by government support, including not only marketing loan program
payments but also counter-cyclical payments, …

16 United States First Written Submission, para. 211.
17 United States First Written Submission, paras. 216-219.
18 United States First Written Submission, para. 216.
19 United States First Written Submission, para. 230.
20 United States First Written Submission, para. 248.
21 United States First Written Submission, para. 231. (Emphasis in original.)
22 Appellate Body Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton , 3 March 2005,
WT/DS267/AB/R, ("U.S. – Upland Cotton (AB)"), para. 445.
23Panel Report, United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton, 8 September 2004, WT/DS267/R, ("U.S. –
Upland Cotton (Panel)"), para. 7.1294.

5.22 Thus, it was the guarantee of insulation that was affecting planting decisions – whether the
price was received from the market or the government was immaterial. In fact, it is most unlikely that
the farmers give the same weight to futures prices as to the guaranteed loan rate. To do so would
require them to sell all their crops forward at the future rate and take the risk that their actual
production would allow them to meet their forward commitments – in effect to take the production
risk from which marketing loan programme pa yments based on actual production was protecting
them.

3. Marketing Loan and Counter-Cyclical Payment Programmes and Market Signals

5.23 Much of the United States argument is di rected to trying to demonstrate a link between
producer decisions and market signals. However, the United States does not and cannot demonstrate
that planting decisions of producers were shaped by market factors. The United States failed to do so
before the original panel and the Appellate Body , and its attempt to reargue the matter in these
Article 21.5 proceedings is equally ineffective.

5.24 The United States argues that the fact that the United States share of production has been
stable over the life of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes indicates that the
programmes are not insulating producers from market signals.
24 But, the question is not whether
United States share of production has been stable it is whether in the absence of the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payments programmes the United St ates market share would be at current levels.
And the answer to that question would have to be no. The United States says that Brazil's claim that
"But for the effect of price-contingent U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments, it would be
expected that non-subsidized producers, such as those in Brazil and West and Central African
countries, would have significantly increased thei r share of production and exports in the world
market"25 simply assumes its own conclusion. 26 But this is just assertion not argument, and thus the
United States has no response to Brazil's position.
5.25 The United States argues that there is an inc onsistency between Brazil's assertion that there is
no link between prices and United States acreage, production and exports, and its claim that the
United States is the single most important market influencing world market prices.
27 If the
United States is the single most important market influencing world prices, the United States says,
then surely there must be a link between world prices and United States planted acreage, production
and exports. But the inconsistency is of the United States own making. The link is not between world
prices and United States production. It is betw een domestic, guaranteed prices and United States
production. And, that of course, is the source of the problem.

5.26 The United States claim that at the time of planting a farmer "cannot know what final prices
and final costs will be,"
28 says less than meets the eye. What the farmer does know is that for all
cotton harvested the price will be at least the loan rate . In addition, if market price is not significantly
above the loan rate and the planting is on base acre s there will be a counter-cyclical payment top-up
(albeit based not on actual production, but on average yields in earlier years). So, if the farmer
continues to produce cotton the expected return is going to be around the target price for most
production on base acres. By contrast, cotton producers in Africa or Brazil know that they will get
only the world price – whatever that is.

24 United States First Written Submission, para. 243.
26 United States First Written Submission, para. 251.
27 United States First Written Submission, para. 254.
28 United States First Written Submission, para. 255. (Emphasis in original.)

5.27 The United States contests Brazil's claim that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments programmes play an essential role in ensuri ng that producers cover their long-term costs of
production and that in the absence of these programmes producers would switch to alternative crops.29
It is, in the United States view, variable costs not long-term costs that influence the decision on
whether to continue or exit cotton farming. However, the United States claim that Brazil has provided
no evidence that absent the payments farmers would exit cotton production 30 ignores the evidence that
Brazil provides in fact.

5.28 In paragraph 11 of its First Written Subm ission, Brazil provides a table indicating total
United States subsidies for upland cotton from MY 1999 to the present which demonstrates that in
some years over half of the revenue received by Un ited States cotton farmers comes from subsidies.
The idea that if these subsidies were not there, pr oducers who have been deprived of half of their
income would carry on planting cotton – business as us ual – is little short of absurd. Brazil also
points out that without marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments between MY 2000-2005
United States cotton producers would have lost US$663 per acre.
31 No rational economic operator
would continue to plant cotton under such conditions.

5.29 Furthermore, the United States claims that a substantial number of producers would not be
affected by a reduction or elimination of payments because they plant on farms with no base acres or
plant in excess of a farm's base acres
32, presents only part of the picture. While base acre yields are
the basis for determining eligibility for counter-cycli cal payments, they are irrelevant for determining
marketing loan payments. So the producers who the United States claims would not be affected by
the reduction or elimination of payments would in fact miss out on marketing loan payments if they
were reduced or eliminated.

4. The Reliability of the Econometric Modelling

5.30 The United States claims that the econometric modelling provided by Brazil is flawed, but the
United States arguments are either an attempt to r eargue what was litigated before the original panel
and the Appellate Body and lost, or are inconsequential. New Zealand will offer a few observations
on the United States claims in this regard.

5.31 The United States makes much of the fact that in his new model Dr. Sumner has increased his
United States cotton supply elasticity to 0.8.
33 However, as an alternative model to capture long run
effects the United States proposes the ATPSM mode l which also has a United States cotton supply
elasticity of 0.8! 34 Moreover, the United States conveniently ignores footnote 301 in Brazil's
submission35 where it is stated "Brazil notes that Professor Sumner also ran 12 simulations using an
even more conservative supply elasticity of 0.5. The results of this exercise demonstrate the
robustness of the supply and price effects…."
5.32 The United States criticises Dr. Sumner for ma king a small change to the rest of the world
(ROW) demand elasticity, -0.2 as opposed to -0.25. But this 0.05 change is a small change in relation

29 United States First Written Submission, para. 292.
30 United States First Written Submission, para. 297.
32 United States First Written Submission, para 298.
33 Brazil First Written Submission, Annex I, paras. 10-21.
34 United States First Written Submission, Annex I, Table A7.

to the alternatives that the United States then offers, i.e. a range of 0.45 between different scenarios.
36
How can the United States claim that its own estimat es have a more solid statistical basis than those
used by Dr. Sumner? In fact, Dr. Sumner's dema nd elasticities are little different from those he used
in the earlier proceeding, which were implicitly f ound to be credible by the original panel and
Appellate Body.

5.33 Although the United States notes that the couplin g factor used by Dr. Sumner is the same as
the one he used in his original model 37, it then goes on to criticize the si ze of that factor. Once again,
the United States is attempting to relitigate what ha d already been found to be credible by both the
panel and Appellate Body in the original proceeding. In any event, while the price effects are not
enormous under the United States parameters, the e ffect on exports - especially in the long-term –
certainly is.

5. Increase in the World Market Share

5.34 The United States contests Brazil's claim that the effect of the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments programmes is to increase the United States world market share in upland cotton
and hence constitutes serious prejudice within the m eaning of Article 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement.
But in seeking to show that there has been no increase in United States market share, the United States
is once again addressing the wrong question.

5.35 The essence of Brazil's argument is that the United States market share is higher than it would
otherwise be and that this is because of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments
programmes. Thus, the United States arguments that its market share has not increased over the
period in question are simply not relevant. More over, the United States own analysis proves Brazil's
point. In its critique of Dr. Sumner's analysis, th e United States indicates that the long-term effect of
the elimination of marketing loan and counte r-cyclical payments would be a reduction in
United States cotton exports of up to 25 per cent in 2002-2005 and 17 per cent in 2006-2008.
38 That
is a very clear measure of what United States worl d market share would be in the absence of the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes.

5.36 In short, the United States itself makes the prima facie case under Article 6.3(d) of the
SCM Agreement that it claims that Brazil has been unable to make.

VI. CONCLUSION

6.01 In conclusion, in New Zealand's view, Br azil has demonstrated that the United States has
failed either to withdraw the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes or to remove
the adverse effects of those programmes as requi red by Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.
Accordingly, the United States has failed to co mply with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB of 21 March 2005.

36 The ROW demand elasticities used by the United States range from -0.39 to -0.84. United States
First Written Submission, Annex I, Table A7.
37 United States First Written Submission, Annex I, para. 31.
38 United States First Written Submission, Annex I, Table A8.

ANNEX B

REBUTTAL SUBMISSIONS OF THE PARTIES

Contents Page
Annex B-1 Executive Summary of th e Rebuttal Submission of Brazil
(Executive summary submitted on 18 January 2007)
B-2
Annex B-2 Executive Summary of the Rebuttal Submission of the
United States (Executive summary submitted on 12 February 2007)
B-8
Annex B-3 Executive Summary of Brazil's Submission Regarding U.S.
Request for Preliminary Ruling (Executive summary submitted on
23 January 2007)
B-16

ANNEX B-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE
REBUTTAL SUBMISSION OF BRAZIL

(Executive summary submitted on 18 January 2007)

1. Brazil's First Written Submission set out its clai ms regarding the existence and consistency of
United States ("U.S.") measures taken to comply w ith the adverse effects- and export subsidy-related
recommendations and rulings of the Dispute Settlement Body ("DSB") in this dispute. In its Rebuttal
Submission, Brazil demonstrates that none of the ar guments raised by the United States in its First
Written Submission has merit or rebuts Brazil's claims.

A
DVERSE EFFECTS-RELATED ARGUMENTS

2. With respect to the adverse effects-related arguments, Brazil addresses, first, four issues
raised by the United States that cut across all of Brazil's adverse effects-related claims. Brazil then
rebuts the substantive arguments raised by the United States.

3. First, the United States asserts that the appropriate year for the compliance Panel to consider
is marketing year ("MY") 2006. Brazil disagrees. The compliance Panel should conduct its analysis
of Brazil's claims based on MY 2005, the most rece nt marketing year for which complete data is
available. The United States assertion that MY 2006 is a more appropriate year contradicts the
United States' own view in the original proceedi ng that the most recent period for which complete
data are available is the appropriate period.

4. Second, the United States challenges, either directly or indirectly, a number of findings of the
original panel regarding both the nature and the effects of the U.S. marketing loan and counter-
cyclical subsidies and the nature and extent of the influence of U.S. production and exports on the
world market price of upland cotton. In assessi ng Brazil's serious prejudice claims, the compliance
Panel should rely on the findings of the original panel and Appellate Body. Article 21.5 of the
Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes ("DSU") is not
intended or designed to allow a Member to re-litigate findings by the original panel, as upheld by the
Appellate Body.

5. Third, the United States argues that Brazil is rais ing an "as such" claim against the U.S.
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs, and that Brazil has failed to demonstrate that
these programs mandate a breach of Articles 5 and 6.3 of the Agreement on Subsidies and
Countervailing Measures ("SCM Agreement"). However, Brazil's claims do not distinguish between
the adverse effects caused by the statutory and regu latory framework of the programs under the Farm
Security and Rural Investment Act ("FSRI Act") of 2002, and the adverse effects caused by the
mandatory and price-contingent payments flowing therefrom. Instead, Brazil's claims concern the
adverse effects caused by U.S. "subsidies," in term s of their "effects" on U.S. production, exports and
the world market price of upland cotton. This appro ach is consistent with the provisions of Part III of
the SCM Agreement and the original panel's findings.

6. Fourth, the United States asserts that it did not have sufficient time to respond to Brazil's
threat of serious prejudice claims and that it will respond in its forthcoming submission. This
unilateral decision by the United States violates the Working Procedures of the Panel and prejudices
Brazil's ability to rebut such U.S. arguments. Br azil requests that the compliance Panel reject any

factual evidence and accompanying arguments subm itted in the U.S. rebuttal submission regarding
Brazil's claims that if faces a threat of serious prejudice.

7. Turning to the substantive issues regarding Br azil's adverse effects-related claims before the
compliance Panel, the United States first asserts that th e removal of the Step 2 subsidy is sufficient to
remove the adverse effects caused by the price-contingent subsidies under the FSRI Act of 2002. This
U.S. argument implies that the Step 2 subsidy – but not the marketing loan or counter-cyclical
subsidies – was the sole cause of the serious prejudice found by the original panel and Appellate Body
to exist during the period MY 1999-2002, as well as the sole cause of any serious prejudice that
resulted from these three subsidies under the FSRI Ac t of 2002 during the period MY 2003-2005. It
also implies that the United States considers the fa r larger and more trade-distorting marketing loan
and counter-cyclical subsidies, which accounted for 42 percent of the market value of upland cotton
production in Marketing Year ("MY") 2005, to have no production, export or world price effects.
Much of Brazil's rebuttal submission demonstrates that this argument is false. Marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments insulate U.S. producers fro m market forces, maintain high levels of upland
cotton planted acreage, production and exports and significantly suppress world market prices.

8. The United States argues at length that the re peal of the Step 2 subsidy will not increase
counter-cyclical payments in MY 2006 and will re duce marketing loan payments. The United States
also asserts that, since counter-cyclical subsidies ar e currently at their maximum level, they will not
increase in the forthcoming year. However, studies by both the Food and Agriculture Policy Research
Institute ("FAPRI") and a U.S. government agency reveal that the repeal of the Step 2 subsidy will not
cause any meaningful reduction in U.S. marketing loan subsidies. Moreover, the United States
argument that counter-cyclical subsidies will be at there maximum, if anything, demonstrates that the
removal of the Step 2 subsidy will be insufficient to remove adverse effects. An examination of U.S.
upland cotton producers' revenue demonstrates th e critical importance of marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments relative to Step 2 payments . While the elimination of Step 2 payments is
expected to reduce upland cotton producer's revenue by $9 per acre per year, marketing loan
payments and counter-cyclical pa yments provided U.S. upland cotton producers with revenue of
$84 per acre and $75 per base acre, respectively, in MY 2005.

9. The United States argues that the decline in U.S. exports in the beginning of MY 2006
demonstrates that the removal of the Step 2 subsidy had a large impact. The decline in U.S. exports in
the first few months of MY 2006 can largely be explained by market conditions. Any additional
decline from the elimination of Step 2 payments is the result of a temporary surge of exports
preceding the elimination of Step 2 subsidies and a subsequent lull following Step 2's elimination.
Domestic mill users and exporters naturally sought to take advantage of a lucrative export subsidy
while it lasted. However, USDA predicts U.S. e xports to increase significantly in the remainder of
MY 2006. Indeed, USDA predicts U.S. upland cotton e xports will be the second largest on record in
MY 2006, slightly less than the record established in MY 2005.

10. Finally, contrary to the United States' asserti on, Brazil's arguments about the effect of Step 2
payments before this compliance Panel are consiste nt with Brazil's position be fore the original panel
and Appellate Body. The Step 2 subsidy had two principal effects. One was to increase upland
cotton producers' revenue. However, this effect wa s indirect and much less important in stabilizing
upland cotton producers' revenue than the far larger marketing loan and counter-cyclical subsidies. A
second effect of the Step 2 subsidy was to make U.S. upland cotton competitive in the world market at
all times, thereby suppressing world market prices. While the elimination of the Step 2 subsidy
eliminated this second effect, upland cotton producers' revenue is still insulated from market prices by
marketing loan and counter-cyclical subsidies. Th us, Brazil's assertion that the elimination of the
Step 2 subsidy will have a rela tively modest impact on the volum e of U.S. upland cotton production
and exports is consistent with a finding that the elimination may also increase world market prices.

11. In its First Written Submission, the United States addresses some of Brazil's arguments
establishing a causal link between marketing loan and counter-cyclical subsidies and significant price
suppression in the world market for upland cotton.

12. First, ignoring the findings of the original panel, the United States argues that marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payments have no significant production, export or price effects. The derelict
U.S. argument that upland cotton producers do not e xpect to receive marketing loan payments was
rejected by both the original panel and Appellate Body. Brazil demonstrates that U.S. producers have
expected to receive marketing loan payments every year since MY 1999 . The United States makes
similarly shoddy arguments with respect to the effect of counter-cyclical payments. Economic
literature confirms that counter-cyclical payments are trade-distorting and not generally capitalized
into land values. Finally, the (incomplete) data on base and planted acreage presented by the
United States confirms that U.S. farmers conti nue to overwhelmingly plan t upland cotton on upland
cotton base acreage. Over 95 percent of farms that grow upland cotton receive upland cotton counter-
cyclical payments.

13. Second, the United States argues that Brazil solely characterizes the size of marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payments as "large," "very large," "huge" and "massive," but does not address
their structure, design or operation. This assertion is baseless. Brazil established the structure, design
and operation of marketing loan an d counter-cyclical payments in Section 7.8 of its First Written
Submission. In rebutting the U.S. arguments, Braz il elaborates on this further. Furthermore, the
magnitude of U.S. subsidies was an important factor in the original panel's price suppression analysis
and continues to be an important factor before this compliance Panel.

14. Third, relying on the stable U.S. share of world production and exports, the United States
argues that U.S. upland cotton producers are not insulated from market prices. The
United States' arguments ignore, and effectively ask this compliance Panel to overturn, one of the
central findings of the original panel and the Appellate Body – that the structure, design, and
operation of the marketing loan and counter-cyc lical subsidies "insulates" U.S. upland cotton
producers from market forces by stabilizing their re venue at very high levels and allow them to
sustain artificially high levels of planted acreage, production and exports.

15. Fourth, the United States argues that there is no connection between large marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments and increased U.S. producti on of upland cotton. Instead, the United States
asserts that the increase can be attributed to high yields. Brazil disagrees. But for the challenged
subsidies, no increased yields would have been ha rvested (because no upland cotton would have been
planted) on a significant portion of U.S. upland co tton acreage. This would have resulted in a
significant drop in overall U.S. planted acreage, production and exports.

16. Fifth, the United States argues that Brazil has failed to demonstrate a temporal coincidence
between marketing loan and counter-cyclical subs idies and suppressed world market prices. While
many of the same factors relied on by the original panel to make this de termination exist today
(i.e., increasing absolute levels of U.S. production and exports), other factors, such as the U.S. share
of world production and exports and prices have be en relatively stable under the FSRI Act of 2002.
However, this stability does not indicate that market ing loan and counter-cyclical subsidies have little
or no effects. Rather, the constant stream of payments from these two mandatory, price-contingent
subsidies has maintained existing significant price suppression. It is remarkable that the United States
would assert that this relatively stable state of affairs
– which continues only because of the
United States' failure to implement the recommendati ons and rulings of the DSB – somehow reflects
the absence of a causal link between these subsidies and significant price suppression. Indeed,
Brazil's very claim in these proceedings is that the U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical subsidies
have not changed, and continue to cause serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil.

17. Sixth, the evidence before the compliance Pane l shows that the average upland cotton
producer continues to be unable to cover its long-te rm total production costs with market revenue.
While the United States acknowledges that producers must cover their total costs in the long term, the
United States asserts that upland cotton farmers cr oss-subsidize upland cotton production with returns
from other crops and off-farm revenue. Just as this ar gument was rejected by the original panel, so it
should be rejected by the compliance Panel. Fu rthermore, an examination of the United States
Department of Agriculture ("USDA") cost of produc tion data demonstrates that a significant portion
of U.S. upland cotton producers are unable to, and do not expect to, cover even their variable costs of
production, when adjusting for the improper U.S. definition of variable costs. This suggests that, even
in the short term, a significant portion of U.S. upland cotton production is not economically viable
without marketing loan and counter-cyclical paymen ts. Finally, the International Cotton Advisory
Committee ("ICAC") comparison of production cost s in different countries does offer further
confirmation that U.S. upland cotton farmers are high cost producers.

18. Seventh, the United States criticizes the results of the study by Professor Daniel Sumner,
presented in Brazil's First Written Submission, as overstated and incons istent with economic
literature. However, a single study from the U.S. Jo urnal of Cotton Science cited by the United States
provides no basis for this compliance Panel to ignore the substantial academic literature in agricultural
economics that finds large world market price effect s arising from U.S. cotton subsidies. Indeed, the
general consensus of the economic literature is that U.S. cotton subsidies increase production and
exports and drive down the world price of cotton. While studies find effects of different magnitudes
based on different assumptions, many economists agree that world prices would be some 10 to
25 percent higher in the absence of cotton subsidies. As the largest subsidizing country in the world,
the United States accounts for the majority of these e ffects. These results are consistent with and
confirmed by Professor Sumner's 2003 and 2006 analyses.

19. Eighth, whether Chinese supply, as the United States argued in the original proceeding, or
Chinese demand, as the United States currently argues, is responsible for certain price movements in
the world market for upland cotton is irrelevant to Br azil's claim. What is important is whether large
reductions in U.S. production and exports following a removal of marketing loan and counter-cyclical
subsidies would result in significantly higher pri ces in the world market for upland cotton. The
original panel found that the United States had a su bstantial proportionate influence on prices in the
world market for upland cotton. Nothing has change d in this respect. Large amounts of U.S. upland
cotton continue to be produced and exported to world markets. China's emergence as a large importer
of upland cotton does not in any way alter this dynamics.

20. Finally, the U.S. arguments do not refute the strong prima facie case that marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments resulted in an increase d U.S. world market share of production, as
established in Brazil's First Written Submission. The United States does not dispute that there has
been an increase in th e U.S. world market share of production in MY 2005, as compared to the three
year average in MY 2002-2004. Further, the evidence shows that but for the marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments in MY 2005, the U.S. ma rket share would not have increased, but, rather,
would have fallen sharply. Finally, none of the alternative periods offered by the United States to
assess a consistent trend of increased market share covers periods relevant to an assessment of how
the two subsidies at issue in this dispute – mark eting loan and counter-cyclical subsidies (or their
predecessors) – distort U.S. production, exports, and the U.S. world market share of production.

E
XPORT SUBSIDY-RELATED ARGUMENTS

21. In its First Written Submission, Brazil demonstr ated that the United States' "measures taken to
comply" with the DSB's export credit guarantee (" ECG")-related recommendations do not exist in
some respects, and to the extent they do exist, are not consistent with Articles 10.1 and 8 of the
Agreement on Agriculture and Articles 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement . As a result, the

United States has failed to implement the DSB' s recommendation that it withdraw the prohibited
ECG-related subsidies without delay, under the SCM Agreement , and otherwise bring itself into
conformity with its obligations, under the Agreement on Agriculture.

22. In its First Written Submission, the United States challenges Brazil's claim that, following
adoption of the United States' implementation m easures, ECGs extended und er the General Sales
Manager 102 ("GSM 102") program still constitute export subsidies. In so doing, the United States
wildly overstates the impact of its limited EC G-related "measures taken to comply" with the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB in this di spute. None of the facts highlighted by the
United States demonstrates that the GSM 102 progra m, as amended by the United States' measures
taken to comply: (i) results in the provision of GSM 102 ECGs on terms that are consistent with
market; (ii) results in premium rates which are ad equate to cover the progr am's long-term operating
costs and losses; or, (iii) avoids circumvention of the United States' export subsidy commitments.

23. The United States raises five principal argu ments in its First Written Submission. Brazil
addresses each of these arguments below.

24. First, the United States asserts that Brazil ma y not, in these Article 21.5 proceedings,
challenge the United States' application of GSM 102 in a manner that results in circumvention of U.S.
export subsidy commitments for pig meat and poultry meat. The United States asks for a preliminary
ruling from the compliance Panel in this regard. Brazil did not address the United States' request in
this Rebuttal Submission, but instead replied to the U.S. arguments in a further submission on
16 January 2007.

25. Second, the United States asks the compliance Panel to reject Brazil's claim that no measures
taken to comply exist with respect to ECGs i ssued under the GSM 102, General Sales Manager 103
("GSM 103") or Supplier Credit Guarantee ("SCGP") programs prior to 1 July 2005, but still
outstanding subsequent to that date, for two reas ons: (a) a finding by the compliance Panel would be
moot with respect to SCGP ECGs issued prior to 1 July 2005, since the maximum tenor for a
SCGP ECG is 180 days and no such ECGs ar e therefore still outstanding; and, (b) the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB required th e United States to "withdraw the subsidy," which
the United States asserts it has effectively accomp lished by changing the fee structure for GSM 102
and halting the issue of GSM 103 and SCGP ECGs.

26. Given the impact of "reschedulings" of debt guaranteed by the program, SCGP ECGs issued
prior to 1 July 2005 may well still be outstanding today. Also, ECGs outstanding subsequent to
1 July 2005 were issued under the fee schedule on which the original panel and the Appellate Body
based a finding of export subsidization under item (j) of the Illustrative List of Export Subsidies in
Annex I to the SCM Agreement ("item (j)"), and therefore form an essential part of the
recommendation to "withdraw the subsidy." Paym ents or performance under those outstanding ECGs
is inconsistent with the DSB's recommendation to "withdraw the subsidy."

27. Third, the United States asserts that item (j) constitutes the exclusive test to determine
whether an ECG program constitutes an export subsidy. The United States is essentially proposing an
a contrario reading of item (j), under which proof th at the GSM 102 program meets its long-term
operating costs and losses would render the progra m immune from challenge as an export subsidy
under the elements of Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement.

28. The interpretation offered by the United St ates is not supported by footnote 5 to the
SCM Agreement; proving that GSM 102 charges fees sufficien t to meet its long-term operating costs
and losses would not absolve the United States of the obligation to abstain from providing de jure
export-contingent GSM 102 ECGs at fees that confer "benefits" on U.S. exporters (to the extent doing
so circumvents U.S. export subsidy commitments under the Agreement on Agriculture ). Moreover,

available data does not demonstrate, as the United States asserts, that the ECG programs are
profitable. The GSM 102 program is not structur ed, designed or operated to meet the long-term
operating costs and losses of the programs.

29. Fourth, the United States appears to assert that, even if the definition of export subsidy in
Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement applies to ECGs, the only applicable standard to
determine whether a "benefit" is conferred, within the meaning of Article 1.1(b), is the standard
embodied in Article 14(c) of the Agreement. Article 14(c) calls for an assessment of the impact of a
government guarantee on the cost of an underlying loan , relative to the cost of the loan without the
guarantee.

30. The United States argues that Brazil's appro ach, which consists of comparing GSM 102 fees
with fees for comparable (albeit also non-market) products offered by the United States Export-Import
Bank ("ExIm Bank"), does not constitute a "marketp lace" comparison, since in this context, the
"marketplace" contemplated under the SCM Agreement is not the cost of obtaining a guarantee for a
one-off transaction on the export of agricultural commod ities, but rather the total cost of funds at
which borrowers and lenders are willing to enter commercial loans. The United States then asserts,
on the basis of three examples, that commercia l lenders provide loans to CCC-approved foreign
obligors on better terms than available under the GSM 102 program.

31. In arguing that Article 14(c) is the exclusiv e standard by which to assess whether a "benefit"
is conferred by a guarantee, the United States fails to recognize that there are a number of potential
benefits and beneficiaries in a tr ansaction supported by a GSM 102 ECG: the U.S. exporter; the U.S.
bank; the foreign bank (referred to by Braz il as the "foreign obligor"); and the foreign
purchaser/borrower. In undertaking a comparis on between GSM 102 fees and fees for comparable
ExIm Bank products, Brazil is undertaking to assess a severable "benefit" to the U.S. exporter.
The U.S. exporter does not bear the costs or risk s of securing or extending financing to the foreign
bank or the foreign purchaser/borrower. Indeed, that is the entire point of GSM 102 – it takes the U.S.
exporter out of the equation. Thus, the benefit to the U.S. exporter can be measured through an
assessment of how GSM 102 fees line up against the fees for similar instruments.

32. Further, the three examples offered by the United States – without any reference to primary
documents and based solely on a 2-page letter from an officer of a U.S. bank that participates in the
GSM 102 program – do not demonstrate that the GSM 102 program is consistent with market even
under the standard in Article 14(c).

33. Fifth, the United States argues that, in asserting that GSM 102 ECGs are unique financing
instruments with no parallel at market, Brazil failed to consider certain products offered by the Inter-
American Development Bank ("IDB"), the Intern ational Finance Corporation ("IFC"), and the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ("EBRD"). The United States also suggests that
Brazil should not have restricted its "benefit" assessment to a comparison between GSM 102 fees and
fees for similar ExIm Bank products, but instead should also have compared GSM 102 fees to fees
for IDB, IFC and EBRD products.

34. Consideration of the IDB, IFC and EBRD products discussed by the United States does not
affect Brazil's conclusion that GSM 102 ECGs are unique financing instruments with no parallel at
market, because the IDB, IFC and EBRD are not commercial banks offering market products . For
this same reason, like ExIm Bank fees, IDB, IFC and EBRD fees are distorted by government
intervention. Providing additional comparisons between GSM 102 fees and IDB, IFC and EBRD fees
is not necessary given the comparison Brazil has alr eady offered to fees charged by U.S.-based ExIm
Bank. In that regard, the United States offers no credible evidence to counter the thorough
comparative exercise undertaken by Brazil with respect to ExIm Bank products.

ANNEX B-2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE REBUTTAL SUBMISSION
OF THE UNITED STATES

(Executive summary submitted on 12 February 2007)

1. Preliminary Ruling Requests
 – Brazil has failed to rebut the U.S. showing that Brazil's
claims relating to GSM 102 guarantees in respect of exports of pig meat and poultry meat are
outside the scope of this proceeding. Brazil concedes that there have never been any findings
of WTO inconsistency against the pig meat and po ultry meat GSM 102 guarantees, and that there
consequently were no DSB recommendations and rulings against these measures with which the
United States was obligated to comply. Thus, th e claims made by Brazil against these measures are
not properly the subject of a compliance proceedi ng under Article 21.5 of the DSU. Although Brazil
contends that "Appellate Body jurisprudence" provi des it with the right to "reassert" claims under the
Agreement on Agriculture and the SCM Agreemen t with respect to these measures, Brazil is
mistaken. It simply misreads the Appellate Body's report in EC – Bed Linen (21.5 – India) and
continues to confuse two distinct issues – (a) the scope of a compliance proceeding pursuant to
Article 21.5 of the DSU and (b) when a claim against a specific measure or aspect of a measure can be
considered to be "finally resolved" for purposes of WTO dispute settlement.

2. – Brazil has no basis to assert claims against either the marketing loan or
counter-cyclical payment programs whether alone or in addition to payments under the
programs. Brazil clarifies in its rebuttal submission th at it makes claims against the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment programs, as such, in addition to all payments authorized thereunder.
Even if so, however, Brazil's claims are outside the scope of this proceeding. First, there is no legal or
factual basis for Brazil's argument that "[i]n the ci rcumstances of this dispute, a subsidy 'payment'
cannot be divorced from a subsidy 'program'" and the argument is undermined by Brazil's own claims
and arguments in the original proceeding. Moreover, contrary to Brazil's assertions, the original panel
did not make any finding of WTO-inconsistency against the Step 2, marketing loan, and counter-
cyclical payment programs alone or in addition to payments. Consequently, there was also no
actionable subsidy-related DSB r ecommendation with respect to these measures. Brazil's claims on
the basis of such a mis-characterized recommenda tion are not properly within the scope of this
compliance proceeding.

3. Second
, the measures that Brazil seeks to challe nge – marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programs in addition to payments – are not measures taken to comply. Indeed, these
measures have not been changed to implement any DSB recommendations and rulings or for any
other reason; they remain the same as they were in the original proceeding. Under Article 21.5 of
the DSU, claims of consistency with a covered agreement can not be made in respect of measures that
are not measures taken to comply and that are the same measures as in an original proceeding. For
this reason too, Brazil's claims – whether agains t the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment
programs or the programs in addition to payments thereunder – are not properly within the scope of
this proceeding.

4. – Brazil's claims regarding compliance in past periods remain outside the scope of this
proceeding. Brazil has yet to identify any legitimate textual basis for its claims regarding compliance
in past periods. Rather, Brazil continues improperl y to conflate Article 7.9 of the SCM Agreement
and Article 21.5 of the DSU. Contrary to Brazil's assertions, the former provision does not establish
the date for assessing compliance with DSU recommenda tions and rulings; it simply set the date on

which the complaining Member can seek authoriza tion to take countermeasures "commensurate with
the degree and nature of the adverse effects determined to exist," as Brazil alleges. In addition, it is
not relevant whether "the assessment [of] whethe r any proposed countermeasures are commensurate"
is "tied to the date on which the implementation peri od expires." In arguing that this provides a basis
for assessing compliance as of the date set in Article 7.9 of the SCM Agreement, Brazil confuses the
mandate of an arbitrator under Article 22.6 of th e DSU with that of a compliance panel under DSU
Article 21.5. Neither argument provides a legitimate basis for Brazil's claims regarding compliance in
past periods.

5. Export Subsidies
 – The United States is not providing export credit guarantees in
contravention of Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on Agriculture. The United States has
demonstrated that even before (1) elimination of the GSM-103 program; (2) cessation of the Supplier
Credit Guarantee Program ("SCGP"); (3) remova l of the highest risk countries from program
eligibility and (4) an average fe e increase of 46 per cent, prem ia collected for the GSM-102,
GSM-103, and SCGP were more than adequate to cover the long-term operating costs and losses of
the programs. Indeed, the current U.S. budget data now reflects that for the cohorts 1992-2005, the
applicable total net negative present value amount is $166,549,780 ( i.e., reflecting a 'profit' –
excluding administrative costs – to the United States government). Brazil's argument in response –
asserting that these results were "specifically cr eated by the United States for purposes of this
litigation" – are entirely baseless. Moreover, Brazil' s attempts to have the Panel disregard the budget
data is inconsistent with the a pproach taken by the original panel as well as Brazil's positions in the
original proceeding. Brazil's own constructed "cash-basis accounting methodology," which Brazil
seeks to have the Panel use instead of the budget da ta provided by the United States, was not accepted
by the original panel and is deeply flawed.

6. – Contrary to Brazil's assertions, the GSM-102 Program is structured and designed to
cover long-term operating costs and losses. F i r s t
, the size of the cash recoveries in conjunction
with the substantial modifications to the export cr edit guarantee programs belie Brazil's assertion that
"the GSM 102 program is not structured or designed to meet long-term operating costs and losses."
Contrary to Brazil's assertions, the fact that CCC borrows from the U.S. Treasury in connection with
the export credit guarantee programs does not mean the programs cannot satisfy the item (j) test. In
addition, the fact that there remains a statutor y one percent cap on fees under the export credit
guarantee programs also does not affect the analys is; CCC has accounted for this fact by eliminating
from eligibility 22 countries with respect to which participation in the program might require fees in
excess of the statutory maximum. And, finally, Brazil has no basis to argue that "prudent fiscal
management" requires no only imposing the tight exposure limits that CCC employs, but also
applying different fees for different banks, as Brazil would prefer.

7. Second
, Brazil is incorrect to assert that CCC pr edicts every year, including for FY 2006
and 2007, that the export credit guarantee programs will incur losses. Brazil assumes (1) the specific
experience of the CCC programs in particular are th e historical experience used in the calculation of
the original subsidy rates and (2) CCC itself provides the principal factors used in the calculation of
the original subsidy rates. Both of these assumptions are false. It is the Office of Management and
Budget ("OMB") that determines expected loss rates for CCC – and other government agencies – on a
government-wide basis. These rates – which are a pplied to virtually all U.S. agencies providing
international credits – are based on assumptions re garding risk and recovery rates involving the
highest-risk countries and overstate possible losse s in respect of CCC's export credit guarantees
programs.

8. – Whether or not any debt has been rescheduled under the SCGP is irrelevant to
whether the United States has "withdrawn" any subsidy under the program. There are currently
no claims "outstanding" under the SCGP. This mean s that the United States has paid all claims that
were payable and is no longer exposed to any fu rther potential liability under the SCGP. Brazil's

argument to the effect that claims may still be ou tstanding under the program if the United States has
rescheduled debt under the program either before or after 1 July 2005 are baseless. They betray a
fundamental misunderstanding of the natu re of rescheduled debt, which is a receivable, pursuant to
which CCC expects to receive – not pay – money; rescheduled debt is not an outstanding claim.

9. – The GSM 102 Program does not confer any benefit under Articles 1 and 3 of the
SCM Agreement. Although Brazil continues to pursue its "claim" under item (j) in the "alternative,"
it provides no textual basis for doing so. Brazil's approach does not comport with the text of the
SCM Agreement or Brazil's own arguments in other disputes that, in the case of measures identified
in the Illustrative List, it is the specific provisions of the Illustrative List – and not the general subsidy
provisions in Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) – that gove rn when the measures may be considered export
subsidies. Nonetheless, the United States also shows that GSM 102 export credit guarantees do not
confer a "benefit" within the meaning of Article 1.1( b) of the SCM Agreement. This further confirms
the fact that item (j) correctly illustrates that GSM 102 export credit guarantees are not export
subsidies.

10. Although it purports to make a showing under Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement, Brazil
has made no attempt to make a particularized s howing that the overall cost, including fees, of a loan
guaranteed by the government is less than th at the firm receiving the guarantee would pay on a
comparable commercial loan. Instead, Brazil seeks to advance a flawed "severable 'benefit'"
approach that ignores the fundamental fact that costs are distributed among the parties involved.
Because costs and potential benefits can both be sh ared in various ways am ong all participants in a
loan transaction covered by a government guarant ee, Article 14(c) focuses on the overall costs of the
loan, including the guarantee fees, rather than any single "severable" component of the entire
transaction. Brazil's approach is, thus, undermined by the text itself.

11. Unlike Brazil, the United States has provided sp ecific information to demonstrate that sources
of financing and guarantees comparable to GSM-102 guarantees are available in the marketplace.
Brazil's attempts to discredit th e specific, real-world evidence submitted by the United States are
entirely unavailing. For example, Brazil attempts to dismiss the numerous examples of commercial
products offered by the International Finance Co rporation ("IFC"), Inter-American Development
Bank ("IDB"), and the European Bank for Reco nstruction and Development ("EBRD") that are
directly comparable to GSM 102 guarantees. Brazil asserts that, by definition, anything that the IDB,
IFC, and EBRD do in the market cannot be commerc ial and cannot be considered as a benchmark.
Once again, Brazil's argument is baseless as a matter of logic and – given the clear evidence of the
commercial and profitable nature of these organizations – as a matter of fact.

12. Actionable Subsidies
 – Brazil's arguments about the "relatively modest" effects of the
elimination of the Step 2 program continue to be unsubstantiated and inconsistent with its
earlier positions. Brazil's fails to substantiate its argum ents aimed at minimizing the effects of
eliminating the Step 2 program. First , regardless of whether one considers Brazil's "present" or
"threat" of serious prejudice claims, there is no merit to Brazil's suggestion that an increase in counter-
cyclical payments will offset any positive impacts of terminating the Step 2 program. To the contrary,
terminating the Step 2 program does result in a decline in marke ting loan payments in the few
remaining years in which marketing loans are even projected to be paid. Moreover, any increase is
counter-cyclical payments is unlikely to take place in the "present" marketing year (MY 2006) and, in
future marketing years, it is unlikely to be substa ntial. This is irrelevant, in any regard, as both
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment prog rams are scheduled to expire at the end of
MY 2007.

13. Second
, Brazil continues to argue that the termination of the Step 2 program has had allegedly
"relatively modest" effects because of the relatively smaller size of outlays under the Step 2, marketing
loan, and counter-cyclical payment programs. However, Brazil fails to explain why size is the

determinative consideration in assessing their effects, especially given Brazil's arguments to the
contrary to the Appellate Body as well as the disproportionate effects that Brazil attempted to
attribute to the Step 2 program in the original proceeding.
14. Third , Brazil's new emphasis on the allegedly "m odest revenue-enhancing effects" of the
Step 2 program is undermined by its own arguments to the original panel that effects on revenue are
only one way in which, in Brazil's view, Step 2 paym ents could have affected world market prices.
Brazil argued before that "the export-enhancing nature of the Step 2 program" was the other, primary,
way in which the Step 2 program affected world marketing prices. Indeed, although Brazil now
attempts to downplay its attribution of an "expor t-enhancing" effect to the Step 2 program, these
arguments are simply not credible.

15. Finally
, data showing historically low export levels for MY 2006 continue to undermine
Brazil's theory of a "relatively modest" impact of eliminating the Step 2 program. Brazil points to the
importance of other factors – including the "speci fic needs of China" – in assessing changes in the
world cotton market since MY 2006. However, even taking into consideration the impact of China's
demand, U.S. exports appear to be at unusually low levels. Moreover, U.S. share of China's imports
following termination of the Step 2 program are at unusually low levels. Similarly, the data do not
support Brazil's suggestion that the low export levels can be explained by "a temporary surge of U.S.
exports in the months just prior to the eliminati on of the Step 2 subsidy with exporters cleaning out
the stocks in their warehouses to take advantage of the Step 2 subsidy."

16. – Brazil has failed to make a prima facie case of "present" serious prejudice within the
meaning of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement. As a preliminary matter, the
United States notes that the marketing year relevant to Brazil's "present" serious prejudice claims is
MY 2006. Where there is reliable data available fo r MY 2006, or any part thereof, there is no reason
why the Panel should not consider that data and Brazi l has no basis for suggesting that the data is not
relevant.

17. Brazil has not provided evidence regarding the structure, design, and operation of the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs that supports its claims of significant price
suppression: Brazil has yet to submit any credible ev idence confirming the significant production
effects from counter-cyclical payments or marketing loan payments that it alleges. Moreover, Brazil
has failed to rebut the U.S. evidence showing, with respect to the counter-cyclical payment program,
that the recent studies show, at most, minimal production effects. Brazil attempts to discredit the U.S.
studies by arguing, inter alia, that the studies do not deal specifically with upland cotton production.
However, that is not a reason to preclude the Panel from considering the studies as being highly
probative. Moreover, Brazil submits no empirical evidence of its own relating to upland cotton
production that supports it claims. Indeed, the only study that it submits that even deals with counter-
cyclical payments is not based on empirical eviden ce but, instead, was conducted in a computer lab at
the University of Wyoming to test the responses of economics students under certain parameters that
were necessarily abstracted fro m actual features of the 2002 Farm Act and imposed a number of
limiting assumptions that the authors themselves recognized affected the results of the study.

18. In addition, Brazil fails to rebut the ev idence showing that a substantial amount of
government payments, including counter-cyclical payments, are "passed-through" to non-operator
landowners in the form of higher land rent. Braz il's response confuses the issues and asserts, without
basis, that uncertainty about receiving payments precludes capitalization into land values. That
argument is inconsistent with the economic literature, Brazil's own arguments regarding U.S.
producers' decisions to plant on the expectation of counter-cyclical payments, and the original panel's
own findings. Brazil's assertions about the "relatively minor" effects of decoupled payments on
land values are equally unfounded.

19. Brazil also fails to rebut the acreage data showing that, in fact, holding upland cotton base
acreage has not induced upland cotton production as Brazil alleges. Brazil's attempts to dismiss these
facts as "unimportant" are inexplicable and baseless. In fact, these facts are "important" and
undermine Brazil's theory of significant production effects, especially Brazil's unfounded assertions
regarding producing for the possibility of base updating.
20. With respect to marketing loan payments, Brazil fails to demonstrate that – taking into
account the particular structure and design of the marketing loan program, and the way that it operates
under the current market conditions – payments thereunder are in fact causing production effects that
are so significant as to be suppressing the world market price for cotton. In particular, Brazil fails to
analyze properly the planting decisions made by U.S. producers in light of the market conditions and
considerations that they actually faced at the time of planting, even as Brazil concedes that this is the
appropriate inquiry. Moreover, while Brazil attemp ts to discredit the U.S. analysis of producers'
planting decisions, it has provided no legitimate basis for its arguments.

21. Brazil fails to provide any credible eviden ce showing that U.S. producers and exporters do
not respond to market signals : The empirical evidence fatally u ndermines Brazil's theory that
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments insu late U.S. producers and exporters from market
signals. Brazil has yet to provide any credible answ er to the fundamental question in this regard: if
U.S. producers continue to plant and produce, and U.S. exporters continue to export, in
circumstances where "any rational non-subsidi zed producer" would have "reduced plantings,
production, and exports," why has U.S. share of world production and world exports not increased
over the life of the FSRI Act of 2002 ? Rather, Brazil attempts to confuse the issues by suggesting that
the determinative question is whether marketi ng loan and counter-cyclical payments provide income
support to U.S. producers. It is not; in fact, there is no WTO obligation to abstain from providing
such support. The question is whether a subsidy cau ses one or more of the four types of "effects"
reflected in Article 6.3 of the SC M Agreement. Brazil has submitted no empirical evidence that the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments causes these effects and, indeed, the empirical evidence
that the United States has submitted flatly contradi cts Brazil's arguments in this regard. Brazil's
attempts to rebut that evidence – for example, by asserting that the stability in U.S. share of world
production and exports are themse lves evidence of significant price suppression – are entirely
unfounded.

22. In addition, Brazil's attempts to demonstrate an alleged absence of a " link" between "prices,
on the one hand, and [U.S.] planted acreage, production, and exports, on the other hand" do not
withstand scrutiny. Every comparison that Brazil h as made in this regard has been fundamentally
flawed, including its latest attempt to plot U.S. planted acreage against foreign harvested acreage and
upland cotton futures; an approach that (a) improperly compares planted and harvested acreage,
(b) ignores the fact that producers look at more than upland cotton futures prices in determining what
to plant, and (c) attempts to capitalize on differe nces that appear to exis t solely because of the
particular graph utilized. Brazil's attempts to compare changes in U.S. planted acreage, changes in
foreign harvested acreage, and changes in the futures prices for upla nd cotton are equally flawed.
What that comparison shows is that neither U.S. nor foreign harvested acreage moves closely with
futures prices of cotton alone. Nonetheless, even if the comparison were valid (and it is not), it would
show that, where changes in U.S. and foreign area diverge, U.S. harvested acreage tends to react more
conservatively than foreign acreage to increasing prices.

23. Finally, Brazil continues to assert incorrectly that increases in the absolute levels of U.S.
production over the period from MY 2002-2005 were th e effect of the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment programs. Brazil's arguments in th is regard are not even internally consistent, let
alone supported by the facts.

24. Brazil Fails to Show Any "Discernible Temporal Coincidence" : Contrary to its assertions,
Brazil had not "reinforce[d] the original panel's fi nding . . . of a discernible temporal coincidence of
suppressed world market prices and the price-contingent U.S. subsidies." To the contrary, the factors
considered by the original panel do not support finding of a "discernible temporal coincidence"
between the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs and any "present" significant
price suppression. Brazil's new assertion that it should be excused from making even the minimum
showing of a "discernible temporal coincidence" as conducted by the original panel would effectively
eviscerate the balance of rights and obligations struck in Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the
SCM Agreement and the requirement that a complaining party make a prima facie case of breach.

25. Brazil has not shown that U.S. producers would switch to oth er crops or exit cotton farming
without marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments : There is no basis for Brazil's argument that
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments are ne cessary to fill an alleged "gap" between costs of
production and market revenue, w ithout which U.S. producers would cease farming cotton. First , the
economic literature makes clear that producers make year-to-year planting decisions with reference
primarily to variable costs of production (among other factors) and that total costs (among other
factors) are relevant with respect to longer-term de cisions, such as whether to exit the cotton sector.
Second, the evidence shows that U.S. producers covered their variable costs in every year that the
FSRI Act has been in effect and that, therefore, it was economically rational for U.S. producers to
have produced upland cotton in these years. Brazil effo rts to inflate variable costs by including land,
labor, and capital recovery costs as variable cost s are not supported by the economic literature.
Further, Brazil has not shown that farmers actually take these costs – for example, an "imputed cost of
unpaid labor" – into account in each year in deciding between planting cotton or some other crop or
putting the land to some other use.

26. Third
, Brazil's arguments against adjusting the seed cotton (i.e., cotton lint plus cottonseed)
costs and revenues to isolate the revenue and costs for cotton lint (the product that is at issue under
Brazil claims) are baseless. Contrary to Brazil's assertions, the evidence shows the common practice
in the United States of paying ginning costs out of the proceeds gained by the gin from sale of the
cottonseed separated out in the ginning process. Th is supports the U.S. approach of excluding both
ginning costs and revenue from sale of cottonseed. However, even using a more conservative
methodology that (a) excludes ginning costs only up to the amount of cottonseed revenue; and (b)
including hired labor as a variable cost shows that U.S. producers have not only made their variable
costs in all years but their total costs in many years as well.

27. Fourth
, with respect to longer-term decisions, su ch as whether to continue or exit upland
cotton farming, the United States has explained that the total cost of producing upland cotton is not
the sole consideration. As the economic literature confirms, whole-farm costs and revenues –
including off-farm revenue and re venue from other sources – are also important considerations in
making those kinds of decisions. Brazil's attempts to show that U.S. producers would have exited
upland cotton production in the long-term solely on the basis of a comparison of costs and revenues
for cotton are, thus, not sound. To date, Brazil has not submitted an y literature, study, report, or
empirical evidence that contradi cts the evidence submitted by th e United States regarding the
consideration of whole-farm cost s and revenues. Nor has Brazil provided any evidence taking into
account whole-farm costs and revenues that show th at, absent the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment program, U.S. upland cotton producers would have exited upland cotton farming.

28. Neither Brazil's New Modeling Exercise Nor the Studies It Selectively and Misleadingly Cites
Supports Its Claim of Significant Price Suppression : Brazil's new econometric model – on which
most of Brazil's arguments critically depend – subs tantially overstates any possible effects on world
market prices from the removal of the marketing lo an and counter-cyclical payment programs. It is
based on a series of untenable economic assumptions that are not consistent with those used by
FAPRI or USDA economists and were not even used by Brazil in its own analysis before the original

panel. When certain basic assumptions in the model are changed to actually reflect FAPRI and other
well-established parameters, the effects predicted by Brazil's model decline sharply.

29. Brazil now attempts to jus tify its novel modeling assumptions by criticizing the FAPRI-based
model – and assumptions – that it used in the original proceeding as being "unnecessarily complicated
and cumbersome" and "not directly appropriate to the issue at hand." These assertions directly
contradict the arguments made by Brazil to the origin al panel. Moreover, their grossly inflated nature
is evident when one considers that Brazil has – by using this new model – increased the asserted price
effects almost three-fold
. There is no reason for this other th an the use by Brazil of unreasonable,
unsupported modeling assumptions for purposes of this proceeding.

30. Brazil's efforts to justify its flawed modeli ng results by comparing them to the results of
studies examining completely different factual scenarios are logically unsound. In fact, it is evidence
of the unreasonableness of Brazil's approach that Brazil as cribes to marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments, alone, similar (or in some cases, greater) price effects than (a) a 2006 World Bank
study estimates for the elimination of all subsidies and tariffs across all countries
; (b) a 2004 study by
the Overseas Development Institute ("ODI") estimat es for the elimination of domestic supports in
China, Greece, Spain, and the United States ; (c) and a study by FAO estimates for the elimination of
all domestic support in all countries . Even less persuasive is Brazil's attempt to place its results "in
the mid-range" of the studies surveyed by the FAO, World Bank, and International Food Policy
Research Institute ("IFPRI"), all of which exam ine the effects of a much different "basket" of
measures that those examined by the Panel here. Finally, Brazil does not undermine recent studies
showing that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs likely only have minimal
effects on world market price.

31. Brazil Has Not Ensured that the Price Effects Of Other Factors Are Not Attributed to the
Marketing Loan and Counter-cyclical Payment Programs : Brazil fails to undertake any meaningful
assessment of the world upland cotton market, of actual world market prices, or of the factors that are
observed to be affecting U.S. and foreign supply and demand and, ultimately, world market prices.
The Appellate Body underscored the importance of such an assessment in this dispute, explaining that
in order to prove a claim under Article 5(c) and 6. 3(c) of the SCM Agreement, "it is necessary to
ensure that the effects of other factors on pri ces are not improperly attributed to the challenged
subsidies." Upland Cotton (AB), para. 437. Brazil has not carried its burden in this regard.

32. For example, although China is the world's largest producer of upland cotton, the world's
largest consumer of upland cotton, and the world's largest importer of upland cotton, Brazil does not
assess and distinguish any impacts of China's trade on world market prices. Instead, Brazil seeks to
mischaracterize the U.S. arguments as being against th e original panel's finding that the United States
exerts a substantial proportional influence on the wo rld market price of upland cotton. Moreover,
Brazil argues that the United States is confusing Brazil's claims of price suppression with claims of
price depression. Neither argument is valid; the former is simply erroneous and the latter overlooks
the fact that the market reports and data that the United States submits are relevant to price
suppression, not price depression. By contrast, Brazil has submitted no empirical evidence itself that
confirms its claims of price suppression. And Brazil's attempts to dismiss the evidence showing the
importance of China's trade on world market prices are without merit.

33. Brazil Fails To Provide Any Evidence or Arguments Regarding "Significant" Price
Suppression In Its Rebuttal Submission : The United States explained in its first written submission
that Brazil has not demonstrated either through em pirical evidence, or through its modeling exercise,
that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical paym ent programs have had any appreciable impacts on
price in MY 2005, let alone caused any "significant" price suppression within the meaning of
Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement. Brazil does not even address the question of "significance" in

its rebuttal submission and, thus, fails to prove a cr itical element of its claims of "significant" price
suppression under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement.

34. – Brazil has failed to make a prima facie case of breach under Arti cles 5(c) and 6.3(d) of
the SCM Agreement. Brazil had not made a prima facie case that the marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payment programs breach Articles 5(c) and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement. First
, Brazil
provides no legitimate empirical evidence to support its assertion that the slight increase in the U.S.
share of the world market in MY 2005 over the av erage for MY 2002-2004 was "the effect" of the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs. Moreover, Brazil analysis is premised on the
incorrect assumption that Article 6.3(d) is concerne d with absolute market share and whether or not,
in any given year, a Member's market share would have been lower if subsidies were removed. It is
not; by its terms, Article 6.3(d) applies only in those situations where there is an increase from the
previous three-year average and it is this increase over time that is "the effect" of subsidies. Thus,
Brazil's argument is entirely off the mark.

35. Second
, Brazil's arguments assume that Article 6.3(d) requires a showing of an upward trend
in market share. However, Article 6.3(d) requires a showing that "this increase" – i.e., "the increase in
the world market share of the subsidizing Member . . . as compared to the average share it had during
the previous period of three years" – "follows a co nsistent trend over a period when subsidies have
been granted." Brazil does not even provide relevant data in this regard, le t alone make the required
demonstration. Nor could it; there simply is no such "consistent trend." Brazil has, thus, failed even
to submit a proper analysis, let alone established a prima facie case of breach under Articles 5(c)
and 6.3(d) of the SCM Agreement.

36. – Brazil has failed to make a prima facie case of threat of serious prejudice under
Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement. Brazil's claims of "threat" of serious prejudice fail
because they are based on a legally erroneous sta ndard and are factually unsubstantiated. First
, there
is no basis for Brazil's argument that "the preced ent interpreting the terms 'threat' and 'threaten'
suggests that the appropriate standard of threat in Part III [of the SCM Agreement] is one in which
there is a significant likelihood, based on the natu re of subsidies and particular conditions of
competition, that serious prejudice will occur in the fu ture." This "significant likelihood" standard is
not found in the text of the SCM Agreement. More over, even leaving aside that there is no basis to
attempt to interpret a treaty in accordance with "precedent" rather than "in accordance with customary
rules of interpretation of public international law," Brazil does not in fact identify any "precedent" that
"suggests" that the appropriate standard for "threat" of serious prejudice is "a significant likelihood."
As Brazil's claims are based on an erroneous legal standard, Brazil fails to make a prima facie case of
threat of serious prejudice within the meaning of Article 5(c) and footnote 13 of the SCM Agreement.

37. Moreover, Brazil's threat claims are also fact ually unfounded. For example, given the prices
that are expected to prevail in MY 2007 (well above 52 cents/lb), it is unlikely that marketing loans
will have any significant effects on planting, producti on, exports, or world market prices in MY 2007.
Indeed, recent estimates project that any marketing lo an payments are likely to be small in MY 2007
and not even paid out in MY 2008. Moreover, counter-cyclical payments are likely to be paid in near-
fixed sums at least through MY 2007 (i.e., meaning that they are likely to behave much like fixed,
direct payments which have been found not to cau se any significant price suppression). Projections
for MY 2007 U.S. plantings, production, and exports – all of which show declines – also undermine
Brazil's claims of "threat of serious prejudice." Mo reover, cost data for future marketing years show
that U.S. producers will likely cover their variable, or operating, costs as well as a large share of total
costs in MY 2007.

ANNEX B-3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF BRAZIL'S SUBMISSION
REGARDING U.S. REQUEST FOR
PRELIMINARY RULING

(Executive summary submitted on 23 January 2007)

1. Brazil addresses the four requests for prelimin ary ruling included in the United States' First
Written Submission and asks that the compliance Panel reject each of the United States' requests.

1. U
SE OF GSM 102 TO SUPPORT EXPORTS OF PIG MEAT AND POULTRY MEAT ARE
PROPERLY BEFORE THE COMPLIANCE PANEL

2. In this dispute, Brazil claims that the Un ited States has applied Ge neral Sales Manager 102
export credit guarantees ("ECGs") in a manner that circumvents U.S. export subsidy commitments
with respect to "unscheduled" products and thr ee "scheduled" products – rice, pig meat and poultry
meat.

3. According to the United States, Brazil cannot assert claims about ECGs for pig and poultry
meat in an Article 21.5 proceeding, allegedly b ecause "the Appellate Body made no findings against
those guarantees [for exports of pig meat and pou ltry meat] and the DSB thus issued no rulings and
recommendations addressed to them." The United States concludes that Brazil's claims are outside
the scope of these proceedings.

4. The United States advances an incorrect inte rpretation of Article 21. 5 of the Understanding
on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes ("DSU"). The scope of Article 21.5
proceedings is not limited in this regard by the scope of the original proceedings in this dispute. As
affirmed by the Appellate Body in EC – Bed Linen (21.5), "an unappealed finding included in a panel
report that is adopted by the DSB must be treated as a final resolution to a dispute between the parties
in respect of the particular claim and the specific component of a measure that is the subject of that
claim."
1 Brazil successfully appealed the original panel's finding that the United States had not
circumvented its export subsidy commitments with respect to ECG support for exports of pig meat
and poultry meat, but the Appellate Body was unabl e to complete the analysis. Thus, unlike in EC –
Bed Linen (21.5) , there has been no "final resolution" to the question whether the United States
circumvents its export subsidy commitments with r espect to ECGs for pig meat and poultry meat.
The scope of the original proceedings does not, therefore, limit the scope of the Article 21.5
proceedings in this respect. He nce, Brazil's claim concerning the consistency with Article 10.1 of
the ECG programs with respect to pig meat and po ultry meat is properly within the scope of these
Article 21.5 proceedings.

5. Accordingly, Brazil requests that the complia nce Panel reject the United States' request for
preliminary ruling.

1 Appellate Body Report, EC – Bed Linen (21.5) , para. 93 (emphasis in original). See also Appellate
Body Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber VI (21.5), para. 102 (footnote 150).

2. T HE MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENT PROGRAMS ARE PART OF
THE U.S. "MEASURE TAKEN TO COMPLY"

6. The United States requests a preliminary ruling that the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payment programs are not "measures taken to co mply," within the meaning of Article 21.5 of
the DSU.

7. With its request for preliminary ruling, the United States appears to suggest that, since it
chose to implement the recommendations and rulings of the Dispute Settlement Body ("DSB") by
solely removing the Step 2 program, these Article 21.5 proceedings can only address the effects of the
removal of the Step 2 program, without regard to the other two measures that formed the "basket of
measures" to which the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the original panel relate.
The U.S. position ignores the context of the original panel's rulings, as well as the text of Article 21.5.

8. First, the U.S. argument ignores that the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the
original panel apply to a "basket of measures."
2 U.S. statements at the time the Step 2 program was
repealed indicate that the repeal of the Step 2 program was intended to comply with the adverse
effects-related recommendations and rulings of the DSB, which apply to a "basket of measures."

9. Second, by repealing the Step 2 program, th e United States changed th e "basket of measures"
to which the adverse effects-rela ted recommendations and rulings of the DSB apply. The question
before the compliance Panel is whether this new basket of mandatory and price-contingent measures,
which constitutes the "measures taken to comply," is "consistent with the covered agreements."

10. Brazil notes that Australia, Canada, Chad, Ch ina, the European Co mmunities, New Zealand
and Japan disagree with the U.S. arguments that its failure to change a non-compliant measure means
that such a measure should fall outside the scope of proceedings under Article 21.5 of the DSU and
request that the compliance Panel reject the U.S. request for preliminary ruling.

11. Accordingly, Brazil requests that the complia nce Panel reject the United States' request for
preliminary ruling.

3. T HE MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENT PROGRAMS ARE
PROPERLY WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THESE ARTICLE 21.5 PROCEEDINGS

12. The United States argues that Brazil's claims in these Article 21.5 proceedings concerning the
serious prejudice and threat of serious prejudice caused by the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
programs are outside the scope of these proceedings, because the original panel "either rejected or
declined to address" claims against those programs.

13. First, the United States argues that Brazil raises improperly an "as such" claim in these
Article 21.5 proceedings. Yet, contrary to th e US's assertions, Brazil does not raise a claim
against U.S. marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs "as such." Rather, Brazil
challenges these programs inasmuch as they cause a dverse effects, within the meaning of Articles 5
and 6 of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures ("SCM Agreement "). Indeed,
Brazil makes no distinction between the serious prejudice caused by the statutory and regulatory
framework of the FSRI Act of 2002 and the serio us prejudice caused by the mandatory and price-
contingent payments flowing from that statutory and regulatory framework.

2 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, paras. 7.1502 and 7.1503.

14. In the circumstances of this dispute, a s ubsidy "payment" cannot be divorced from a subsidy
"program." The original panel made it very clear that its "present" serious prejudice finding pertains
to both the FSRI Act of 2002 subsidy programs and the payments mandated by those programs.

15. The United Stated did not appeal this particular element of the original panel's report, which
was, therefore, adopted by the DSB. Conseque ntly, the United States "is obliged to take action
concerning its present statutory and regulatory framework as a result of [the original panel's] 'present'
serious prejudice finding."
3 The U.S. arguments regarding th e "as such" versus "as applied"
distinction reflect a fundamental misconception concer ning the nature of the obligations Articles 5, 6
and 7.8 of the SCM Agreement, and the DSB recommendations and rulings in this dispute.

16. Second, application of WTO jurisprudence rega rding the limits imposed on the scope of
Article 21.5 proceedings by the scope of the original proceedings 4 makes it clear that Brazil's claims
against the U.S. marketing loan and counter-cycli cal payment programs, and the payments flowing
from such programs, are properly before this compliance Panel.

17. Brazil's claims regarding the adverse eff ects flowing from both the programs and payments
mandated thereunder were identified in Brazil's request for establishment of this compliance Panel.
Brazil's claims involve U.S. measures "taken to comply" with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB – specifically, the new "basket of measures" providing for mandatory and price-contingent
domestic support for upland cotton created by the re peal of the Step 2 program. Moreover, as
demonstrated in more detail below, the original panel did not reject, as the United States argues,
Brazil's claims that the marketing loan and counte r-cyclical payment programs, or the mandatory and
price-contingent payments made thereunder, cause serious prejudice or a threat thereof.

18. Brazil's claims concerning the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs and the
payments flowing from such programs in these Artic le 21.5 proceedings, therefore, fall squarely
within the limits set by panels and the Appellate Body in their jurisprudence.

19. Furthermore, as clarified by the original pane l, its "'present' serious prejudice findings include
findings of inconsistency that deal with the FSR I Act of 2002 and subsidies granted thereunder in
MY 2002 [and that] the United States is obliged to take action concerning its present statutory and
regulatory framework as a result of our 'present' seri ous prejudice finding." Indeed, the original panel
made findings that explained that its present serious prejudice conclusions "pertain" to both "measures
in force" and "subsidies paid." This is consiste nt with the original panel's identification of both
payments and the statutory and regulatory framewo rk providing for these payments as the "measures
at issue."

20. Numerous other statements by the original panel confirm this. For example, the original
panel recognized that price-contingent payments are inextricably linked to the mandatory statutory
and regulatory framework, i.e., the programs, providing for them. In discussing the nature of the
subsidies at issue, the original panel referre d numerous times to the statutory and regulatory
framework providing for these payments.

21. Additionally, the original pa nel repeatedly stated that its "present" serious prejudice finding
were premised upon effects generated from both the FSRI Act of 2002 and the payments flowing
from the FSRI Act of 2002. Its statements show that it was convinced that the United States could
only comply with its Article 7.8 obligations by ch anging the mandatory and price contingent "basket
of measures" of the FSRI Act of 2002.

3 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1501.
4 See US – Softwood Lumber VI (21.5) and Chile – Price Band Systems (21.5).

22. The original panel also left no doubt that it considered the "basket of measures" alleged by
Brazil to cause a threat of serious prejudice during MY 2003-2007 to overlap with the same "basket
of measures" that the United States was obliged to change as part of its obligation, pursuant to
Article 7.8, to comply with the original panel's present serious prejudice findings.

23. For these reasons, the original panel did not find it "necessary or appropriate" to rule on
Brazil's "threat" claims. This finding did not cons titute a rejection of those claims. The original
panel's statements regarding the United States' obligation to "make changes to its statutory and
regulatory framework" were a direct response to a re quest by Brazil to address future adverse effects
flowing from the FSRI Act of 2002.

24. Finally, the original panel did not reject Brazil's per se claim. Indeed, it exercised judicial
economy over that claim. In doing so, the original pa nel cross-referenced to Sections G and H of its
report making it clear that no additional findings were necessary.

25. In light of the foregoing, Brazil requests that the compliance Panel reject the United States'
request for preliminary ruling.

4. T
HE COMPLIANCE PANEL IS NOT BARRED FROM MAKING FINDINGS WITH RESPECT TO
THE U.S. FAILURE TO IMPLEMENT BETWEEN 21 SEPTEMBER 2005 AND 31 JULY 2006

26. The United States asserts, first, that Br azil cannot raise a claim, under Article 21.5 of
the DSU, if there is no disagreement between the parties concerning the existence of measures taken
to comply. In doing so, the United States seems to acknowledge the absence of measures to comply
between the end of the implementation period on 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006. Brazil thus
requests the compliance Panel to make a finding to that effect.

27. Second, the United States asserts that the co mpliance Panel is barred, by Article 21.5 of
the DSU, from making findings on a situation of non-compliance by the United States between
21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006.
5 The United States errs. Brazil has the right to challenge the
"existence" and "consistency" of "measures taken to comply", in accordance with Articles 7.8 and 7.9
of the SCM Agreement. A finding that the United States failed to implement in a timely manner will
be relevant to the resolution of this dispute.

28. Should Brazil prevail in the adverse effects-re lated portion of this dispute, the quantification
of any countermeasures it seeks will be assessed by an arbitrator as of the date the United States was
required to "remove the adverse effects of the subsid y or withdraw the subsidy." Arbitrators refer to
"the date on which the implem entation period expired, as the date on which to assess whether the
proposed suspensions of concessions or other obligations were equivalent to the level of nullification
or impairment or constitute appropriate countermeasures."
6

29. Accordingly, Brazil's right to pursue the Unite d States' failure to remove the adverse effects
or withdraw the subsidy, and the assessment whether any proposed countermeasures are
commensurate, are tied to the date on which th e implementation period expires . That the
United States, on 1 August 2006, took measures to comply is relevant before this compliance Panel
solely in connection with Brazil's claims that th ese measures result in inc onsistency with Articles 5
and 6 of the SCM Agreement.

5 U.S. First Written Submission, paras. 51-56.
6 Arbitrator's Report, U.S. – FSC, paras. 2.14(a) (and footnote 25), 2.15.

30. Brazil notes that Australia similarly points out to the impact the U.S. interpretation would
have on Members' rights under Article 7.9 of the SCM Agreement and Article 22 of the DSU.
31. Brazil therefore requests that the complian ce Panel reject the United States' request for
preliminary ruling.
5. C
ONCLUSION

For the reasons set forth in Sections 1 to 4 above, Brazil requests that the compliance Panel reject all
four U.S. requests for preliminary rulings.

ANNEX C

ORAL STATEMENTS OF PARTIES AND THIRD PARTIES
AT THE MEETING WITH THE PANEL

Contents Page
Annex C-1 Opening Statement of Brazil (Executive Summary) –27 February
2007
C-2
Annex C-2 Closing Statement of Brazil – 28 February 2007 C-10
Annex C-3 Opening Statement of the United States (Executive Summary) –
27 February 2007
C-18
Annex C-4 Closing Statement of th e United States – 28 February 2007 C-26
Annex C-5 Third Party Oral Statement of Argentina – 28 February 2007 C-29
Annex C-6 Third Party Oral Statem ent of Australia – 28 February 2007 C-34
Annex C-7 Third Party Oral Statemen t of Canada – 28 February 2007 C-37
Annex C-8 Third Party Oral Statement of Chad – 28 February 2007 C-40
Annex C-9 Third Party Oral Statement of the People's Republic of China –
28 February 2007
C-45
Annex C-10 Third Party Oral Statement of the European Communities –
28 February 2007
C-47
Annex C-11 Third Party Oral Stat ement of India – 28 February 2007 C-56
Annex C-12 Third Party Oral Statement of Japan – 28 February 2007 C-58
Annex C-13 Third Party Oral Statemen t of New Zealand – 28 February 2007 C-61
Annex C-14 Third Party Oral Stat ement of Thailand – 28 February 2007 C-64

ANNEX C-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE
OPENING STATEMENT OF BRAZIL

(27 February 2007)

1. Brazil's "oral statement" addresses the following issues. First, Brazil deals with preliminary
rulings arguments. Second, Brazil highlights key aspects of Brazil's present serious prejudice claims
and responds to selected arguments raised by the Un ited States in its Rebuttal Submission. Third,
Brazil reiterates its claims with respect to export credit guarantees ("ECGs") and rebuts the
United States' principal defenses.

1. P
RELIMINARY RULINGS ARGUMENT

2. Brazil provided extensive answers to the Pane l's questions regarding the preliminary ruling
requests of the United States. In considering th ese arguments, Brazil asks the Panel to consider the
following questions. When the original panel issued its report, did it intend to leave Brazil with no
implementation rights for serious prejudice caused by mandatory and price-contingent marketing loan
and Counter-Cyclical Payment ("CCP") program paym ents made after marketing year (MY) 2002?
Further, did the original panel intend th at the United States would have no obligation to take
appropriate steps under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement concerning its statutory and regulatory
framework mandating price-contingent marketing loan and CCP subsidies?

3. The original panel expressed very clearly the U. S. obligation to take steps to limit and control
marketing loan and CCP subsidies made after 31 Ju ly 2003. In addressing Brazil's arguments about
the mandated future marketing loan and CCP su bsidies made during MY 2003 and to be made
beyond, the original panel found that "[b]ecause the Panel's 'present' serious prejudice findings
include findings of inconsistency that deal w ith the FSRI Act of 2002 and subsidies granted
thereunder in MY 2002, the United States is obligated to take action concerning its present statutory
and regulatory framework as a result of our 'present' serious prejudice findings." This finding
provided considerable assurance to Brazil that th e United States was required to significantly change
and transform the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, the Farm Bill.

4. The United States argument that General Sa les Manager ("GSM") 102 ECGs for pig meat and
poultry meat are not properly within the scope of these Article 21.5 proceedings confounds Brazil's
claims and the measure that is the subject of those claims. Brazil's claims concerning these
two "scheduled" commodities are product-sp ecific, as they must be under the Agreement on
Agriculture. The measure subject to those claims is indeed the United States' "measure taken to
comply" – the GSM 102 program "in its totality," as amended by the modified GSM 102 fee schedule.
As we demonstrate in our answers to the Panel' s questions, neither the amended GSM 102 program in
its totality, nor the individual amendments, set out terms or conditions that differ as between any
eligible products. Brazil's claims are product-specific, but the U.S. "measure taken to comply" is not.

2. P
RESENT SERIOUS PREJUDICE CLAIMS

5. Brazil initiated this proceeding due to the fa ilure of the United States to withdraw the
subsidies or to take appropriate steps under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement to remove the adverse
effects of the subsidies, in a timely and comple te fashion, pursuant to the recommendations and
rulings of the Dispute Settlement Body ("DSB") in this dispute. While Brazil raises four claims in

this proceeding, the focus of this Oral Statement is Brazil's claims of present serious prejudice from
the U.S. marketing loan and CCP subsidies.
Cross-Cutting Serious Prejudice Related Arguments

6. Initially, Brazil addresses a number of cro ss-cutting arguments. First, the appropriate
reference period to assess the effects of marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments is MY 2005,
the last recent marketing year for which essentially co mplete data exists. However, it is appropriate
for the Panel to assess, where credible and reliable, evidence concerning time periods after
31 July 2006.

7. Second, this Panel should follow the findings of the original panel. Brazil fully agrees with
the United States that the original panel's findi ngs "are taken as a given for purposes of this
Article 21.5 proceeding." The Panel should, therefor e, reject the U.S. efforts to have it dismiss
practically all of the original panel's findings as irre levant because allegedly all of its findings relate
only to a basket of three measures – marketing loan, CCP and Step 2 subsidies.

8. Third, as every other panel assessing a serious prejudice claim, this Panel must necessarily
conduct a counterfactual "but for" analysis. Th is approach requires it to assess what production,
exports, and world prices would be in a world in which U.S. marketing loan and CCP subsidies did
not exist.

The Nature, Magnitude and Effects of Marketing Loan Subsidies

9. The largest and most trade-distorting subsidy at issue in this dispute is the marketing loan
subsidy. The original panel found as follows: "w e have no doubt that the [marketing loan] payments
stimulate production and exports and result in lower world market prices than would prevail in their
absence." The United States now asks this Panel to find that since the adoption of the panel's
marketing loan findings by the DSB on 21 March 2005 , the nature of marketing loan subsidies has
totally changed. However, both the available da ta and testimony of cotton producers and their
representatives shows that marketing loans are cr ucial for the continued production of cotton.
Further, marketing loan payments in MY 2005 were 29 percent larger than in MY 2002.

The Nature, Magnitude and Effects of CCP Subsidies

10. CCP subsidies play a similarly crucial role in U.S. cotton producers' ability to grow cotton
profitably. According to data produced by the United States for MY 2005, 95 percent of U.S. cotton
acreage was planted on farms holding cotton b ase. These farms receive large amounts of
CCP subsidies. These facts alone demonstrate the "strongly positive relationship" between receipt of
CCP subsidies and the continued production of co tton. CCP subsidies have production, export and
price effects, as they restrict planting flexibility of farmers. They reduce the risk associated with
producing the base crop, in this case cotton. CCP subsidies also increase the ability of farmers to
invest in production-enhancing equipment. In gene ral, they smooth the revenue flow to farmers and
ease access to credit.

11. Representatives of the National Cotton Counc il ("NCC") of America testified to the
U.S. Congress that "during the past three years, many cotton farmers have avoided bankruptcy only
because Congress has authorized emergency relief to supplement the FAIR Act's inadequate fixed
payments." This statement offers a number of valu able insights also for CCPs. As the original panel
found, "United States upland cotton producers rely on … subsidies to cover their cost of production."
Second, contrary to U.S. arguments, U.S. producer s could not perceive direct payments ("fixed
payments") and CCP subsidies as fully capitalized into land values.

Combined Effects of Marketing Loan and CCP Subsidies Result in Increased U.S. Supply of Cotton

12. But for U.S. price-contingent cotton subsidies, the majority of cotton farms would incur huge
losses nearly every year. Faced with the pros pect of such losses, many farmers would cease
producing cotton. Neither the U.S. criticisms of Brazil's cost of production analysis, nor the new
factual information provided by the United States, detracts from the core reality that U.S. cotton
farming is unprofitable without subsidies.

13. The key question in any business is whethe r market returns exceed costs and generate
sufficient profit. While a business with reserve s may sustain losses in some years, even the
United States recognizes that "in the long run, produ cers will have to cover asset and overhead costs,
as well as variable costs." Data from USDA indicates that cotton farmers lost an average of $837 for
each acre planted to cotton in the past seven years (MY 1999-2005). In only one of these years –
MY 2003 – did farmers' market returns exceed produc tion costs. Based on the total amount of acres
planted to cotton, the U.S. cotton industry lost $12.4 billion during the past seven years. Yet, over the
same period, marketing loan and CCP subsidies provided cotton farmers with price-contingent
subsidies amounting to $13.5 billion.

14. The United States claims that Brazil "fails to analyze properly the planting decisions made by
U.S. producers in light of market conditions and considerations they actually faced at the time of
planting." In response, Brazil compared the net reve nue (or loss) that a typical farmer holding cotton
base expected in the spring of 2005 from growing an acre of cotton, or two common substitute crops,
soybeans and corn. The analysis demonstrat es that subsidized U.S. cotton farmers did not have an
incentive to switch from cotton to corn or soybean production. Rather, they expected that cotton
marketing loan and cotton CCP payments linked to the cotton base acre at issue would allow them, at
a minimum, to break even. Had cotton marketi ng loan and CCP subsides not existed in MY 2005,
upland cotton farmers would have had every incentiv e to switch to the production of other crops, for
which marketing loan subsidies would still be available, to cut its losses.

15. The fact that U.S. marketing loan and CCP subsidies "numb" U.S. cotton farmers' responses
to market price signals is also demonstrated by more recent evidence. In February 2007, the NCC
announced that U.S. cotton farmers intend to pl ant 12.8 million acres in MY 2007, or 14 percent less
than in MY 2006, largely because expected prices for corn are the highest on record. The evidence
shows that farmers expect to incur large losses from growing cotton in MY 2007 if they had to
consider solely cotton market revenue. By contr ast, farmers can expect to earn a profit from growing
both soybeans and corn, even without considering U.S. subsidies
. Based on these considerations
alone, it is remarkable that the NCC predicts that only 14 percent of cotton acreage shifts out of
growing cotton.

16. Examining actual total costs and returns in MY 2002-2006 demonstrates that only
U.S. subsidies made growing cotton economically rational, and very profitable. Again, price-
contingent cotton marketing loan and CCP subsidi es are the main reason for cotton farmers achieving
profitability. The marketing loan subsidy alone almost entirely erased lo sses that cotton farmers
would have incurred based solely on market revenu e. It also almost equalized the returns from
growing cotton, corn or soybeans. Cotton direct a nd CCP subsidies then turned growing cotton into a
very profitable business.

17. Brazil recalls that even if U.S. cotton farmer s expected prices to be above the Adjusted World
Price at the time of planting, they "were also awar e that if actual prices were ultimately lower, they
would be 'insulated' by government support, includ ing not only marketing loan program payments but
also counter-cyclical payments, which were based on a target price of 72.4 cents per pound." This is
exactly what happened in MY 2004. Futures prices during the planted period indicated high prices at
the time of harvest. But soon after planting, prices began to plunge far below the loan rate.

18. Finally, the United States claims that Brazil ha s failed to show that the effects of marketing
loan and CCP subsidies are to increase U.S. acreage, increase U.S. production, and increase the
U.S. share of world exports and production. Th is argument erroneously assumes that there was a
recent marketing year, month, or even day without effects from the U.S. subsidies. Such a time
period does not exist. Given the original panel's findings regarding the structure, design and operation
of the mandatory and price-contingent subsidies in the FSRI Act of 2002, it is sufficient for Brazil to
show that those subsidies have sustained and maintained high le vels of acreage, production and
exports of U.S. cotton that would otherwise be uneconomical.

Statement of Professor Daniel Sumner

19. Professor Sumner provided the Panel with a st raightforward and robust model appropriately
tailored to the questions before this Panel. The pa rameters used fit specifically the market and policy
setting for cotton and the question that this Panel is tasked to assess – the impacts on cotton market
prices, quantities and exports of removing very larg e cotton subsidies. The United States has raised
many complications, yet each of its objections fad es away upon scrutiny. The model provided to the
Panel and the economic reasoning that guides its appli cation to the issues of U.S. cotton subsidies are
sound. The results provided are sound and directly useful for this case.

20. The analysis discusses why the CCP affects acr eage decisions of cotton farmers. These
payments affect cotton production because they are large, they are tied to the cotton price, they restrict
what can be grown, and they are tied to cotton pr oduction through expectations about future base
updates. The importance and relevance of these argum ents are reinforced by the evidence that has
accumulated since 2003. It is instructive to note that in its reparameterization of the model by the
United States, it abandons its previous claim that the CCP is completely decoupled from production.

21. The basic set of equations was adapted from a research report published by the Cato Institute.
While built upon the basic algebraic foundation publis hed as an appendix in my 2005 study, the
cotton model used by Professor Sumner for this di spute involves considerable elaboration from the
Cato publication.

Production and Export Effects Cause Significant Price Suppression in the World Market and an
Increase in the U.S. World Market Share

22. Brazil has demonstrated that excess U.S. production causes significant price suppression in
the world market for cotton. Evidence supporting this assertion includes the fact that Brazilian and
U.S. cotton is a fungible and widely traded commodity and that "the United States exerts a substantial
proportionate influence in the world market for upland cotton." As in MY 2002, the United States
accounts for about 20 percent of world production an d 40 percent of world exports. Price suppression
in the world cotton market today continues to be linked to the U.S. position as the world's largest
exporter by far.

23. Furthermore, the evidence demonstrates that th e price effects of the U.S. marketing loan and
CCP subsidies are "significant." Professor Sumner fi nding of a 9-11 percent price effect in the world
market for cotton in MY 2005 is supported by the academic literature.

24. The price effects from marketing loan a nd CCP subsidies found by Professor Sumner and
others constitute "significant" price-suppression. Given the conditions of competition in the world
market for cotton, price effects of 1 or 2 percent would be significant. Contrary to the
U.S. arguments, the evidence before the Panel demonstr ates that the effect of the U.S. marketing loan
and CCP subsidies and the payments made thereunde r is (i) significant price suppression in the world

market for cotton, in violation of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement, and (ii) an increase
in the U.S. world market share, in violation of Articles 5(c) and 6.3(d) of the same Agreement.

Removal of Step 2 Did Not Impact the Pr ice Suppressing Effects of Marketing Loan and
CCP Subsidies

25. In the context of this Artic le 21.5 proceeding, the repeal of the Step 2 program constitutes a
non-attribution factor. In the words of the original panel, the issue is whether the Step 2 program in
MY 2005 "would have the effect of attenuating th[e] causal link, or of rendering not 'significant' the
effect of"
 marketing loan and CCP subsidies.

26. The U.S. Government itself confirms that th e repeal of Step 2 has minimal effects on the
revenue protection enjoyed by U.S. cotton producers. Other independent studies also find relatively
modest effects from the repeal of Step 2. Th e United States argues that the smaller amount of
U.S. exports in MY 2006 is evidence of the removal of adverse effects by the repeal of Step 2. This is
largely false. According to USDA, the decline in U.S. exports is "almost entirely attributable to
reduced sales to China," partially due to decreased demand fro m China and increased exports from
India. Second, as the United States has conceded , there was a large and unnatural surge in U.S.
exports at the end of MY 2005 just before the te rmination of the Step 2 program. Nevertheless,
USDA's current projections of MY 2006 exports rema in at the second highest level in history, at
levels that are comparable to MY 2004 and 22 percent above MY 2002 levels.

Statement of Andrew Macdonald

27. Due to its large size and the availability of re liable information, the U.S. cotton market is the
single most important market influencing cotton pr ices throughout the world. China has undoubtedly
an influence on the world market, but it does not lead world market prices. India is another example
of an important cotton-producing and -consuming country. Brazil, like most other cotton producing
countries, is a relatively small producer of cotton and its domestic market consumes the majority of its
production. None of the other cotton-producing countries individually have the export potential
needed to assert a substantial influence on price trends.

28. The U.S. elimination of the Step 2 program for cotton on 1 August 2006 was well received by
the cotton producers outside of the United States. The effect of Step 2 on the international market is
extremely difficult to judge under such a complex syst em. Yet, Macdonald believes that international
cotton prices were initially somewhat higher than th ey would have been if the Step 2 program had
been maintained. However, what might have been gained in terms of increased price levels from its
elimination has most likely been lost by the accumula tion of larger stocks in the United States. Under
normal circumstances, such increased stocks w ould result in a reduction of production in the
United States, which would be the only way for U.S. prices to rise. However, the remaining domestic
support programs give U.S. producers little incentive to react to such price signals.

3. E
XPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES

29. With respect to three ECG programs maintain ed by the U.S. Commodity Credit Corporation –
GSM 102, GSM 103 and SCGP – the DSB recommended that the United States withdraw the subsidy
and otherwise bring itself into compliance with its obligations by the implementation deadline of
1 July 2005. However, U.S. "measures ta ken to comply" with the DSB's ECG-related
recommendations do not exist in some respects. To th e extent they do exist, they are not consistent
with the export subsidy rules of the Agreement on Agriculture and the SCM Agreement.

30. Brazil has demonstrated that there is no cred it protection product available in the marketplace
that is comparable to a GSM 102 ECG. Accordingl y, the GSM 102 program offers a unique financial

instrument without any parallel at market, and therefore confers "benefits" per se. In Brazil's view,
that is the beginning and the end of the analysis.

31. Brazil has also demonstrat ed quantitatively that GSM 102 fees are lower than fees for
comparable products offered by ExIm Bank, by an average of over 100 percent of the GSM 102
value. The United States has never disputed the accuracy of Brazil's ExIm Bank comparison.
Instead, it criticizes Brazil for not benchmarking GSM 102 fees against fees for products offered by
three multilateral institutions – the EBRD, the IDB and the IFC. The United States criticizes Brazil
for arguing that becau se these three entities
 are public rather than private, they cannot offer
commercial products . The United States goes on to argue that fees charged by these entities are
market-based or "commercial" (without providing any indication of what these fees are, or how they
compare to GSM 102 fees). This argument is peculiar, for at least two reasons.

32. First, it may or may not be true that public entities
 like the EBRD, IDB and IFC can offer
commercial products. Brazil tends to think it is not true. However, the exhaustive evidence offered
by Brazil to demonstrate that GSM 102 fees fall far below fees for comparable ExIm Bank products
stands. Like the EBRD, IDB and IFC, the ExIm Bank is a public entity. Despite its status as a public
entity, the United States presumably considers that the ExIm Bank offers commercial products ,
including the products used by Brazil in its be nchmarking analysis. If so, then Brazil fails to
understand why the ExIm Bank benchmarking analysis provided by Brazil is any less probative than
would be an analysis involving EBRD, IDB and IFC fees. Brazil has demonstrated that GSM 102
fees fall below ExIm Bank fees for comparable pro ducts. If the United States believes that the result
would be different in a comparison between GSM 102 fees, on the one hand, and EBRD, IDB or IFC
fees, on the other, it is up to the United St ates to prove it. If the United States does not consider that
the ExIm Bank products used by Brazil in its benc hmarking analysis are provided on terms consistent
with market, then those products themselves confer a "benefit" . In that case, by using ExIm Bank
products as a reference point for assessing GSM 102 ECGs, Brazil is being unduly generous to
the United States.

33. Second, the United States has previously argued that export credits offered by public entities
can not be considered commercial products. The Panel can therefore unders tand Brazil's surprise at
the United States' insistence that EBRD, IDB and IFC products provide releva nt benchmarks. Brazil
tends to agree with the standard the United Stat es apparently applies to WTO Members other than
itself – that is, that a public or government entity is not the commercial market. While the
United States finds significance in the fact th at public entities like the EBRD, IDB and IFC are
"profitable" (whatever the definition of that term), making a "profit" does not mean that fees charged
by a public entity are consistent with market. A pub lic entity can charge belo w-market fees and still
make a "profit", particularly because its costs are be low those faced by its market-based counterparts.
A market-based entity must charge fees high enough to make a profit on costs higher than those faced
by its public or government counterparts, and the prof it must offer a sufficient return to attract capital
from investors. "Profitability" of a public entity is not an adequate measure of the full extent of the
"benefit" conferred by a government financial contribution.

34. Turning to the role of Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement, the United States criticizes Brazil
for not having undertaken a quantitative assessme nt of "benefit" under the calculation methodology
included in Article 14(c). In the United States' view, the only
 way to determine whether a "benefit"
has been conferred by a guarantee subject to export subsidy claims under the Agreement on
Agriculture and Part II of the SCM Agreement is to assess the effect of the guarantee on the price of
an underlying loan.

35. Article 14(c) is not
 the sole standard to determine wh ether a government guarantee confers a
"benefit" in a dispute under the Agreement on Agriculture and Part II of the SCM Agreement .
Article 14 applies solely "[f]or the purpose of Part V" of the SCM Agreement, or in other words, for

proceedings involving countervailing measures, wher e calculation of a duty is required. The
"guidelines" in Article 14 support the conclusion that Article 1.1(b) of the SCM Agreement embodies
a "benefit to recipient" standard. Unlike in c ountervailing duty proceedings, where a duty must be
calculated, disputes under Part II of the SCM Agreement do not require quantification of the "benefit"
found under Article 1.1(b). Thus, Article 14 does not prescribe hard and fast rules, even in
countervailing measure disputes, to which the pr ovision is explicitly applicable. Outside
 the context
of countervailing measure disputes, this flexibility to account for the factual circumstances at hand is
at least as important to preserve.
36. Brazil makes an alternative argument under item (j) in the event the Panel does not consider
Brazil's evidence
 and argument to be sufficient to show that GSM 102 fees confer "benefits" and
constitute subsidies under Article 1.1 of the SCM Agreement . Brazil asks the Panel to determine
whether the GSM 102 program constitutes an expor t subsidy under the so-called "break even"
standard in item (j). This evidentiary point stands, without painting Brazil into the imaginary
interpretive quandary constructed by the United States.

37. Even if the United States has withdrawn the elements of the GSM 102 program that made it
an export subsidy under item (j) (a proposition with which Brazil do es not agree), it has "replace[d]
the original subsidy with yet another" prohibite d subsidy – the provision of export-contingent
GSM 102 ECGs at below-market fees. It has, therefore, failed to achieve "full withdrawal" of the
subsidy consistent with the Article 4.7 recommendati on. In urging the Panel not to examine whether
its replacement measure confers e xport-contingent "benefits", the United States seeks precisely to
escape its obligation under that provision to fully
 withdraw the prohibited subsidy.

38. Contrary to the U.S. position, item (j) does not
, via an a contrario reading, constitute the only
evidentiary path by which an export credit guarant ee or an ECG program can be shown to constitute
an export subsidy. There is one very important reason for this conclusion – item (j) does not satisfy
the terms of footnote 5 of the SCM Agreement. Footnote 5 expressly identifies the only circumstances
in which the Illustrative List can be re lied upon to identify measure that are not prohibited. Item (j)
does not in any way affirmatively refer to any EC Gs as "not constituting export subsidies." It
therefore cannot be read a contrario, as the United States wishes. This same conclusion was reached
by the panel in Korea – Vessels, which considered item (j) in light of footnote 5.

39. The first category of evidence relates to the structure and design of the GSM 102 program.
This evidence is critical, because it is an ECG program's structure and design that ultimately
determine whether the fees charged will, over th e long term, cover operating costs and losses.
Viewed alone, historical data about an ECG progr am's performance is potentially unreliable, because
it may reflect accidents of good fortune over a given period of years.

40. Brazil has identified at least five aspects of the GSM 102 program that establish that it is not
structured and designed to meet its long-term operating costs and losses. All of these structural
features were considered by the original panel to support its conclusion that the ECG programs
constituted export subsidies within the meaning of item (j). All of these structural features persist in
the amended GSM 102 program.

41. Brazil turns now to the second category of evid ence that is relevant to the compliance Panel's
analysis under item (j) of the Illustrative List, shoul d the Panel deem it necess ary to proceed to that
alternative basis for finding GSM 102 to be an export subsidy. That second category comprises
Brazil's evidence that, as a matter of historical performance, the GSM 102 program has not met its
operating costs and losses. Brazil has offered such evidence using both a net present value
methodology, and a cash basis accounting methodolog y. Viewed using either methodology, the
GSM 102 program does not survive scrutiny under item (j).

42. To close, Brazil made a brief observation on its claim that no measures taken to comply exist
with respect to ECGs for unscheduled products and rice outstanding on 1 July 2005. Brazil's claim is
supported by the compliance panel and Appellate Body reports in Brazil – Aircraft (21.5) . These
reports concluded that in continuing, after the implementation deadline, to perform on financial
instruments concluded before adoption of the DSB's recommendation, Brazil was not fully
withdrawing the subsidy. Analogously, in continuing, after the implementation deadline, to perform
on ECGs issued before adoption of the DSB's recommendation, the United States has not fully
withdrawn the subsidy. We believe that as a re sult, the United States can neither pay claims under
these outstanding ECGs, nor reschedule those outstanding ECGs.

1. I NTRODUCTION

1. Thank you Mr. Chairman, Members of the Pane l and Members of the Secretariat. In our
Closing Statement, we would like to touch upon a few issues in the U.S. Oral Statement of yesterday.

2. R
ELATIONSHIP OF ARTICLE 21.5 OF THE DSU AND ARTICLE 7.8 OF THE
SCM AGREEMENT

2. This Panel is well aware that this is th e first Article 21.5 proceeding to deal with
implementation of rulings related to adverse effects under the SCM Agreement. Brazil cannot over-
emphasize the importance of an interpretation that safeguards the effectiveness and legal integrity of
the provisions under Part III of the Agreement. As the United States reminded us in its Oral
Statement, "[a]n interpreter is not free to adopt a reading that would result in reducing whole clauses
or paragraphs of a treaty to redundancy or inutility."
1

3. I recall the question that I posed yesterday in our Oral Statement: When the original panel
issued its report on 18 June 2004, did the original panel intend to leave Brazil with no implementation
rights for serious prejudice caused by mandatory and price-contingent marketing loan and CCP
program payments made after 31 July 2003 – the end of MY 2002?

4. If the United States were to prevail on its view that subsequent
 mandatory and price-
contingent marketing loan and CCP payments are not properly before this Panel, the grant of annual
recurring subsidies becomes "a moving target th at escape from [the WTO subsidy] disciplines." 2
Subsequent mandatory subsidies would always ha ve to be subject to new dispute settlement
proceedings, and by the time these proceedings were completed, the effects of the latest subsidies
would be superseded by yet more subsidies, whic h could in turn only be challenged in yet another
original panel process. WTO dispute settlement w ould dissolve into a "Groundhog Day" situation,
with no remedy available to Members suffering adverse effects.3

3. P
RICE TRANSMISSION AND MARKET INTEGRATION

5. In its Oral Statement, the United States claims that Brazil makes conflicting arguments by
arguing (i) for a rapid price transmission in an integrated world cotton market and (ii) for a much
slower predicted reaction by farmers outside the United States to higher prices from the elimination of
U.S. cotton subsidies. Andrew Macdonald and Professor Sumner both discussed these issues. The
United States confuses two related, but distinct issues.

6. Much of world's cotton is produced in re latively remote areas, often lacking strong
infrastructure. Further, information systems for fa rmers are often limited and in some cases policies
restrict the ability of farmers to respond to world market prices. These conditions mean that farmers'
planting decisions in some countries respond incomple tely, or with some delay, to observed changes
in world market prices for cotton.

7. At the same time, the world market for cotton is well integrated. Prices are highly correlated
over time across various country markets. The CIF pr ice charts that the Unite d States exhibited with
its Oral Statement show that prices for cotton in different countries move together. But those CIF
prices are not the prices that farmers observe directly in those countries. In f act, there is a major step

1 Appellate Body Report, U.S. – Gasoline, p. 23.
2 Panel Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber IV (21.5), para. 4.30.
3 Panel Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber IV (21.5) , para. 4.30, quoting arguments of the European
Communities.

from the CIF export price at the border and retransm issioning those price signals back to individual
farmers. Hence, these prices confirm market integra tion, but do not reflect the slow and limited price
transmission that affects cotton farmers' planting decisions.

8. Consequently, the United States, in paragraph 80 of its Oral Statement
4, misinterpreted a
statement by Professor Sumner regarding the transmission of prices. The statement at paragraph 28 of
Annex I notes that "there is an imperfect transm ission of price changes generated by U.S. cotton
policy changes to cotton producers in certain cotton producing regions." As I think we can agree,
foreign growers will react more slowly to "polic y changes" taking place in the United States than
would a U.S. cotton farmer faced with the immine nt elimination of its own revenue from marketing
loan and CCP subsidies. This is obviously different from the daily price fluctuations of the New York
futures or "A Index."

4. B
RAZIL'S CAUSATION ANALYSIS, EXPORTS AND THE EFFECTS OF STEP 2

9. In its Oral Statement, the United States claims that Brazil has shifted position from asserting
that exports cause price suppression, to asserting that stocks and production cause price suppression.
The United States misinterprets Brazil's claims. Production, stocks and exports are in fact interlinked;
any production not consumed domestically must even tually be exported. Moreover, as the graph in
the written version of my statement demonstrates 5, cotton prices and the relative amount of stocks are
closely correlated. In other words, subsidy-fueled production that results in stocks impacts market
prices, much as subsidy-fueled production that results in exports.

10. As Andrew Macdonald has explained, for purpo ses of price effects, U.S. stocks and exports
are one and the same. In light of declining U.S. domestic use, U.S. stocks must eventually be
exported. The transparency of the U.S. market mean s that market participants are fully aware of this
fact. Whether U.S. supply ends up temporarily in a warehouse, or is exported immediately, the U.S.
subsidies-generated supply suppresses world market prices.

4 Check against delivery version.
5 Exhibit Bra-660 (http://www.cottoninc.com/CottonMarketComments/ChinaStocksRevisedUpward/).
Cotton: "A" Index and World Stocks/Use,
August 1999 – February 2006
Ratio
Price
Stks/Use
"A" Index

11. Further, the United States claims that the repeal of the Step 2 program has reduced U.S.
exports, as allegedly shown by MY 2006 year-to-date data. Yet, the data show that after years of
increases, exports from almost all the large exporting countries (except India, which is a special case
given the improvements in the Indian cotton industry ) are projected to fall in the current marketing
year.6

EXPORTS 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007
05/06 v
06/07 %
Change
WORLD 5881 6449 6645 7233 7780 9645 8769 -9.99
USA 1472 2395 2591 2995 3143 3821 3418 -11.79
CFA 755 756 815 1957 936 1031 971 -6.18
UZBEK 800 810 783 659 850 1000 946 -5.71
AUSTRALIA 849 662 575 470 435 538 483 -11.39
BRAZIL 68 147 107 110 339 456 330 -38.18
GREECE 270 250 280 247 321 355 243 -46.09
INDIA n/a n/a 11 119 136 600 894 32.89

in '000 metric tons Source ICAC – World Cotton Statistics – Review of Cotton Situation7

12. USDA itself has stated what many indepe ndent market analysts, including Andrew
Macdonald, confirm: that Chinese demand for imports has fallen considerably as China is apparently
using up "a large supply of cotton imported prior to the expiration of the Step 2 program."8 Increasing
Indian exports have added to export declines in the United States and other exporting countries.9

13. Nevertheless, USDA (and ICAC) currently pr oject U.S. exports in MY 2006 to be the second
highest in history and comparable to MY 2004 levels. The United States has conceded that MY 2005
saw a large and unnatural surge in exports just prior to the repeal of Step 2. 10 Thus, the level of
exports would probably have been lowe r in MY 2005 and higher in MY 2006 but for the unusual end
of MY 2005 surge of exports taking advantage of the last Step 2 subsidies. Indeed, U.S. MY 2007
exports are projected to increase again.

14. In sum, there is no evidence that the elimina tion of Step 2 has any significant impact on U.S.
exports.

5. C
OST OF PRODUCTION

15. The United States claims that Brazil's "theor y" of a cost-revenue gap "fails as a matter of
fact"11 because of newly-presented cost/revenue data for MY 2003. As Brazil noted in its

6 Exhibit Bra-652 (International Cotton Advisory Committee Review, Volume 60, Number 3 January-
February 2007, accessed February 2007, p. 4).
7 Exhibit Bra-661 (Export Statistics, ICAC, February 2007).
8 Exhibit Bra-662 (Elton Robinson, "High certificated cotton stocks slow trade, weigh on prices," Delta
Farm Press, 1 December 2006 , accessed February 2007 at
http://deltafarmpress.com/mag/farming_high_certificated_cotton/).
9 Exhibit Bra-652 (International Cotton Advisory Committee Review, Volume 60, Number 3 January-
February 2007, accessed February 2007, p. 4.
10 Exhibit Bra-651 (Cotton and Wool Outlook, USDA, 12 February 2007, p. 4, accessed February 2007
at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CWS/CWS-02-12-2007.pdf).
11 U.S. Oral Statement, para 71 (Check against delivery version).

Oral Statement
12, MY 2003 was characterized by unusually high prices. Over the past seven years
(i.e., MY 1999-2005), MY 2003 is the only year, in which the average U.S. acre planted to cotton
happened to make a profit based on ma rket revenue. That said, even the United States admits that in
MY 2003 fully 8 percent of U.S. cotton production was unable to cover its variable and total costs.
Based on this MY 2003 data, the United States impli es that over the lifetime of the 2002 Farm Act,
"fully 92 percent of U.S. upland cotton is produced without the help of subsidies." 13 However, this is
wrong even for MY 2003. The average middle cost farm covered costs, but within the group, there is
also a wide range an many of those farms (about a third depending on the precise nature of the
variation of those farms) failed to cover costs. Th is means that, even in MY 2003 almost half of the
U.S. production failed to cover costs.

16. Moreover, as we demonstrated yesterday and in previous submissions, this is false. MY 2003
is the odd year in which the U.S. cotton industry earned $864 million. In the four years prior to
MY 2003 and the two years thereafter, it lost $13.2 billion. Unless my math is wrong, a profit of
$864 million hardly offsets a loss of $13.2 billion, but results in long-term net losses of $12.4 billion
that were covered by marketing loan and CCP subsidies.
14 There is no basis for the U.S. assertion
that U.S. cotton production is economically viable.15

6. "S
IGNIFICANT"

17. The United States argues that Brazil failed to establish that the world market price effects
from marketing loan and CCP subsidies are "signi ficant." We have addressed this issue in our
submissions, and again in yesterday's statement. Ac cording to the original panel, "significant" means
"important; notable … consequential" 16 and must be assessed in light of the market and product at
issue.17 The original panel moreover clarifies that for cotton "a relatively small decrease or
suppression of prices could be significant because … profit margins may ordinarily be narrow" and
"because of the sheer size of the market in terms of the amount of revenue involved in large volumes
traded."
18

18. We have presented quantita tive evidence of price effects based on Professor Sumner's study.
His results fall right in the middle of a range of work by other economists. In light of the product and
market at issue, the price effects he finds are "s ignificant." For example, in MY 2005, the value of
total cotton production was $31 billion.
19 Applying Professor Sumner's average price effect of about
10 percent represents revenue of $3.1 billion – a result that is significant by any measure.

19. By contrast, the United States has presented a remarkable economic conclusion to the Panel
that is clearly at odds with mainstream economics. It claims that U.S. marketing loan and CCP
subsidies cause price suppression of between 0.96 and 2.26 percent depending on the time period
examined and the U.S. parameter set selected. Co mpare these numbers to the helpful table prepared
by FAO listing a variety of estimates from a variety of sources.
20 The U.S. estimates are not just at
the low end of the table. They have fallen off the table below the lowest points in the range of even

13 U.S. Oral Statement, para. 86 (Check against delivery version)
14 Exhibit Bra-477 (U.S. Upland Cotton Costs and Returns).
15 Exhibit Bra-477 (U.S. Upland Cotton Costs and Returns).
16 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1325.
17 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1329.
18 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.1330.
19 Brazil's First Written Submission, para. 190.
20 Exhibit Bra-579 ("Cotton: Impact of Support Policies on Developing Countries – Why Do the
Numbers Vary?" FAO Trade Policy Brie f, p. 2, accessed December 2006 at
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/y5533e/y5533e00.pdf).

the lowest estimates of any other analyst. As Professor Sumner points out in his supplementary
statement in Exhibit Bra-659, the set of paramete rs put forward by the United States as the basis for
these estimates is not credible. Their results are incredible actually.
20. In any event, in light of the product and mark et at issue, even the price effects found by the
United States must be considered "significant." In light of the very competitive nature of the cotton
market, profit margins of developing country co tton producers, including in Brazil and in West
African countries, are generally low. Assuming co nservatively that they reach 5 percent, a one
percent price effect would increase farmers' net income by 20 percent. Very small price effects,
therefore, have a large impact on their income and livelihood, as is evident from Chad's presentation
this morning.
21 The United States appears to argue that these effects are "unimportant," "not notable,"
or "inconsequential." The United States is wrong.

Finally, the original panel also noted that the 5 percent ad valorem subsidization rate set out in
Article 6.1(a) of the SCM Agreement may be relevant in assessing "significance."
22 In this regard,
I note that the subsidization rates of U.S. co tton from marketing loan and CCP subsidies alone
averages 40 percent over the period MY 2002-2005, and reaches 61 per cent in MY 2004.23

7. E XPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES

21. I have a few closing comments on ECGs. The United States has not demonstrated that the
amended GSM 102 program meets its long-term co sts and losses, under item (j). Applying a net
present value (NPV) methodology, as did the original panel, the CCC continues, every year, to project
that GSM 102 ECGs issued in that year will result in losses.

22. The NPV calculation used to arrive at initial projections of losses on ECGs actually issued in
a given year is critical, whether or not re-estimates are made over time. U.S. law requires NPV
projections because they "measure more accurately the costs of Federal credit programs" than does
cash-basis accounting.
24 Similarly, bank regulators all over the world use projections of default
probabilities and losses-given-default – the core of NPV methodology – to gauge the adequacy of a
bank's capital. 25 If historical experience truly establishes that a methodology overstates the risk of
default, the methodology may be adjusted acco rdingly for the purpose of calculating future
projections on new commitments. The CCC makes such adjustments; FAS has stated that "credit
models used to calculate the subsidy for the guara nteed credits were revised in FY 2001 and FY 2003
and currently provides reliable estimates ".26 Despite these adjustments, the CCC continues to project
cohort-specific long-term losses upon issue of each new GSM 102 cohort.27

23. But let us assume, for the sake of argument, that the United States has amended the GSM 102
program so that it now meets its costs and losses. Th is does not mean that the United States has lived
up to its obligation to "withdraw the subsidy", for two reasons.

21 See Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, para. 7.54 and additional references thereto.
22 Panel Report, U.S. – Upland Cotton, footnote 1432.
23 Brazil's First Written Submission, Table 6.
24 Exhibit Bra-545 (2 U.S.C. § 661(1)).
25 See "Internal Ratings-Based Approach" of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision", described
at http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128.htm.
26 Exhibit Bra-588 (Agricultural Export Credit Gu arantee Programs Assessm ent, ExpectMore.gov,
Section 3.CR2) (emphasis added).
27 See evidence cited in Brazil's Opening Statement, para. 253.

24. First, the United States is wrong that item (j) "demonstrates dispositively
 the circumstances
under which export credit guarantees are considered export subsidies". 28 This argument would
transform an "illustrative" into an exhaustive, dispositive list. The U.S. interpretation also fails to
give full effect to footnote 5. A provision that tells us what is an export subsidy does not
automatically tell us what is not an export subsidy. For example, all we know from item (j) is that, if
a program fails to meet its costs and losses, it is an export subsidy. It is neither correct interpretively,
nor logically valid, to conclude that if an ECG program breaks-even, it is not an export subsidy. Mere
implication, through a contrario reasoning, does not satisfy footnote 5. Rather, to satisfy that
footnote, the item must actually contain langua ge that "refer[s]" to a measure as "not constituting" an
export subsidy.

25. Second, the Appellate Body has found that "full withdrawal of a prohibited subsidy … cannot
be achieved by a 'measure taken to comply' that replaces
 the original subsidy with yet another subsidy
found to be prohibited." 29 Thus, even if the amended GSM 102 program clears item (j), the
United States has merely replaced it with another export subsidy. Under th e amended fee schedule,
GSM 102 ECGs are export-contingent contributions that confer "benefits", in two senses.

26. First, GSM 102 ECGs confer "benefits" per se, because they are unique financial instruments
with no parallel at market, and because they enab le credit that would not otherwise be available. 30
The United States has not provided a single example of a product offered by a market-based entity
that imparts the essential qualities of a GSM 102 ECG cited by Professor Sundaram. 31 T h e
United States has offered precisely one example of a bank that was able to secure a commercial loan
without a GSM 102 ECG. Even that one example i nvolved an investment grade bank, rather than the
non-investment grade foreign obligors targeted by GSM 102.32 Brazil's evidence and argument stand.

27. Second, Brazil has demonstrated that GSM 102 fees are dramatically lower than fees for
essentially identical products offered by a non-market U.S. government entity, ExIm Bank. The sole
U.S. response is that other non-market entities – the EBRD, IFC and IDB – also offer products that it
alleges are similar to GSM 102 ECGs. The Unite d States does not, however, explain why these non-
market benchmarks would offer a better comparison than that offered by Brazil's ExIm Bank exercise.
Nor has the United States demonstrated that GS M 102 fees are higher than fees for these allegedly
similar products offered by the EBRD, the IFC and the IDB.

28. According to the United States, the only
 way to determine the existence of a "benefit" from an
ECG in an export subsidy case is through a quantit ative assessment under what it deems the "total
cost of funds" approach in Article 14(c). 33 However, this overlooks the wording and role of
Article 14. That provision sets forth only "guidelines" that the Appellate Body, at the United States'
urging, has concluded must not be followed rigidly, even in countervailing measure disputes to which
the provision expressly applies.
34 That flexibility is even more important to preserve in an export
subsidy case, where Article 14 does not directly a pply, precisely because the quantification foreseen
by the provision is not required . All Brazil need show is that some "benefit" flows from a
GSM 102 ECG.

28 U.S. Opening Statement (Check against delivery version), heading III.A.1 (emphasis added).
29 Appellate Body Report, U.S. – FSC (21.5 II) , para. 83 (italic emphasis in original; underlining
supplied).
30 See Brazil's Opening Statement, paras. 174-177.
31 Brazil's First Written Submission, Annex III (Statement of Professor Rangarajan Sundaram), para. 7.
32 Brazil's Opening Statement, paras. 218, 223.
33 U.S. Opening Statement (Check against delivery version), paras. 31-39; U.S. Rebuttal Submission,
paras. 137-144; U.S. First Written Submission, paras. 107, 133-134, 138.
34 Appellate Body Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber IV, para. 92.

29. Two panels have held that a guarantee confers a "benefit" if it is offered at fees that are not
consistent with market.35 In the particular factual circumstanc es of this case, where the U.S. exporter
does not bear the cost of extending or securing cred it, an evaluation of the GSM 102 fees paid by the
exporter is particularly appropriate. 36 Insisting on the rigid "total cost of funds" approach supported
by the United States would be interpretively wrong, and would also risk the very "circumvention" of
the subsidy disciplines that led the Appellate Body to its flexible approach to Article 14.37

30. I offer a closing note on our claim that no meas ures taken to comply exist with respect to
certain ECGs outstanding on 1 July 2005. The or iginal panel found that the ECG programs were
export subsidies within the meaning of item (j ). The recommendation that the United States
"withdraw the subsidy" therefore applied to the ECG programs. However, the recommendation also
includes the subsidiary obligation to withdraw certain outstanding ECGs issued under those
programs.
38 Continuing to perform on such ECGs, defi ned in Article 1.1 as contingent liabilities,
does not satisfy the definition of "withdr aw" offered by the Appellate Body in Brazil – Aircraft (21.5)
(or, for that matter, by the United States in its opening statement). Paying a claim on default of a
GSM 102 credit does not "remove" or "take away" the subsidy 39, or "cause" that subsidy "to decrease
or disappear".40

8. C ONCLUSION

31. Thank you Mr. Chairman and Members of the Pa nel for your time and attention. We look
forward to provide responses to answer your written questions.

35 Panel Report, EC – CVDs on DRAMs , para. 7.189; Panel Report, Canada – Aircraft Credits and
Guarantees, para. 7.345.
36 Brazil's Opening Statement, para. 205; Brazil's Rebuttal Submission, paras. 402-407, 411-413.
37 Appellate Body Report, U.S. – Softwood Lumber IV, para. 100.
38 Appellate Body Report, U.S. – FSC (21.5) , paras. 2, 223-231 (recommendation to withdraw a
subsidy in the form of an overarching measure, the FSC, includes the obligation to stop making pre-committed
payments to existing FSCs); Appellate Body Report, Brazil – Aircraft (21.5), para. 45 ("… to continue to make
payments under an export subsidy measure found to be prohibited is not consistent with the obligation to
'withdraw' prohibited export subsidies, in the sense of 'removing' or 'taking away'.").
39 Appellate Body Report, Brazil – Aircraft (21.5), para. 45.
40 U.S. Opening Statement (Check against delivery version), para. 42.

ANNEX C-3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE OPENING STATEMENT
OF THE UNITED STATES

(27 February 2007)

1. This is a compliance proceeding. The question for this Panel is whether Brazil has
established that the U.S. measures taken to comply with the DSB's recommendations and rulings are
inconsistent with the covered agreements cited by Brazil.
1 The burden is on Brazil to prove its claims
in this regard. The United States has taken numer ous steps to comply: (a) the United States stopped
operating the Supplier Credit Guarantee Program (or "SCGP"); (b) the United States ceased operating
the GSM 103 program; (c) the United States overh auled GSM 102, the remaining export credit
guarantee program; and (d) the United States eliminated the Step 2 program. As a result, the
United States is in compliance with its WTO obligations.

I. C LAIMS IN RESPECT OF EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES FOR EXPORTS OF UNSCHEDULED
PRODUCTS AND RICE

2. – GSM 102 Guarantees Issued Subsequent to 1 July 2005 Are Provided Consistently
with Item (j) of the Illustrative List. Brazil argues that, notwithstanding any U.S. measures taken to
comply, GSM 102 guarantees are inconsiste nt with Articles 10.1 and 8 of the Agreement on
Agriculture and 3.1(a) and 3.2 of the SCM Agreement. These claims turn largely on a single question
– whether the GSM 102 guarantees are "export subsidies" under the SCM Agreement.

3. There is only one definition of "export subsidy" in the SCM Agreement and its elements are
set out in Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement. To show how these definitional elements
apply in particular circumstances, Article 3.1(a) refe rs to the Illustrative List of Export Subsidies in
Annex I of the SCM Agreement. In the case of export credit guarantees, it is item (j) that applies.
Item (j) "illustrates" – or "clarifies" – those export credit guarantees that are export subsidies
(i.e., those that are provided under programs "at prem ium rates which are inadequate to cover the
long-term operating costs and losses of the programs" ) from those that are not. This was how the
original panel determined whether the GSM 102, GSM 103, and SCGP export credit guarantees were
providing "export subsidies" in the original pr oceeding. This was al so the basis for the
DSB's recommendations and rulings regarding the gua rantees. And this was the analysis that the
United States observed in implementing the DSB's recommendations and rulings.

4. The United States has taken a number of measures to increase the premiums and lower the
potential long-term operating costs and losses of th e portfolio of export credit guarantee programs
examined by the original panel. The financial data in the U.S. budget shows now that the export
credit guarantee programs operate at entirely profitable levels, consistent with item (j).

5. – Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) Do Not Establish a "Different Benchmark" From the One in
Item (j) For Establishing Whether Export Credit Guarantees Are Export Subsidies. Brazil has
provided no credible rebuttal to the U.S. evidence rega rding item (j). It has concentrated its efforts,
instead, on finding a "back-door" way to attack the guarantees. Toward this end, it has claimed an
"entitlement" to challenge GSM 102 guarantees under the general definitional elements in Articles 1.1

1 DSU Article 21.5.

and 3.1(a) and then, if it fails in that regard, to raise an argument under item (j) "in the alternative." 2
Brazil's approach is based on an incorrect interpretation of the SCM Agreement. Contrary to Brazil's
arguments, "Articles 1.1/3.1(a) and item (j)" do not "offer . . . different benchmarks to demonstrate
that a measure is an export subsidy." 3 Indeed, such an interpreta tion leads to entirely untenable
results.

6. Brazil argues that the U.S. approach would require what Brazil terms an " a contrario" reading
of item (j). According to Brazil, footnote 5 of the SCM Agreement allegedly "definitively forecloses"
such an interpretation.
4 This is incorrect, as Brazil itself has recogni zed in other disputes. 5 Contrary
to Brazil's arguments, footnote 5 does not require an "affirmative statement" that a measure is not a
prohibited export subsidy, and an "affirmative stat ement" is not required under the ordinary meaning
of the term "refer." To the contrary, the ordina ry meaning confirms that "referred to" can include
measures that are either expressly or implicitly "referred to" as not constituting export subsidies. 6
Brazil explained to the Appellate Body, in Brazil – Aircraft (21.5) that item (j) contains just such an
implicit reference.7 Moreover, the Appellate Body indicated that it accepted Brazil's argument that
the first paragraph of item (k) could be read a contrario to determine when measures are "justified." 8
That result is equally appropriate here.

7. Brazil's interpretation of footnote 5 is underm ined also by the negotiating history, which
shows that Members agreed to delete from an ear lier draft language that would have required an
express reference in order for the provisions of the footnote to apply. 9 Moreover, that interpretation
would – if applied – nullify or render redundant a number of provisions of the SCM Agreement ,
including footnote 5 itself. As the Appellate Body h as explained, "[a]n interpreter is not free to adopt
a reading that would result in reducing whole clau ses or paragraphs of a treaty to redundancy or
inutility."10

8. – Brazil Has Not Shown That GSM 102 Guarantees Provide a "Benefit." The Panel's
analysis properly ends with an assessment under item (j). Any further examination, however, would
only confirm that the GSM 102 guarantees are not prohi bited export subsidies, as Brazil fails to
demonstrate any distinct "benefit" under Article 1.1( b). Indeed, Brazil attempts to show a "benefit"
based on a theory that, if credited, would underm ine not only item (j) and other provisions of the
SCM Agreement – for the reasons noted above – but also th e logic of Articles 1.1(a) and Article 14(c)
of the SCM Agreement.

9. Article 14 does not apply directly in this context; it applies, instead, "for the purpose of
Part V" of the SCM Agreement . Nonetheless, because it interpre ts and applies the definition of
"benefit" set out in Article 1.1, it has been relied upon by the Appellate Body as important contextual
guidance in interpreting "benefit,"
11 and, indeed, it has been invoked by Brazil to justify its approach
here.12 Article 14(c) provides that a government lo an guarantee confers a benefit for countervailing

2 Brazil Rebuttal Submission, para.457.
3 Brazil Rebuttal Submission, para.470 (emphasis in original).
4 Brazil Rebuttal Submission, para.563.
5 See e.g., Brazil – Aircraft (AB), paras. 14 and 19.
6 See Oxford English Dictionary, p. 2520 (Exhibit US-116).
7 Brazil – Aircraft (AB), para. 19.
8 Brazil – Aircraft (21.5) (AB), para. 80.
9 Compare MTN.GNG/NG10/W/38/Rev. 2 (2 November 1990) and MTN.GNG/NG10/W/38/Rev. 3
(6 November 1990).
10 United States – Gasoline (AB), p. 23.
11 Canada – Aircraft (AB), para. 155.
12 Brazil First Written Submission, paras. 371-375

duty purposes only where there is "a difference between the amount that the firm receiving the
guarantee pays on a loan guaranteed by the government and the amount that the firm would pay on a
comparable commercial loan absent the government guarantee." The "benefit" is measured as "the
difference between these two amounts adjusted for any differences in fees."

10. Article 14(c), thus, recognizes that the pr ovision of a loan guarantee is fundamentally
different from the provision of other government services. In the case of government services,
Article 14(d) applies and provides that a "benefit" may be calculated only where "the provision [of the
service] is made for less than adequate remuneration." Article 14(c) specifically precludes such an
approach for loan guarantees. Instead, it recognizes that a loan guarantee is made for the sole purpose
of supporting a loan transaction ; the guarantee becomes an integral part of that transaction and has
no value beyond it. An assessment of the total co sts of the transaction is necessary to assess whether
a "benefit" is actually conferred by the guarantee. A simple comparison of the fee charged for the
issuance of one loan guarantee to the fee charged for another may provide an incomplete and distorted
picture in this regard.

11. Brazil purports to invoke Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement to support its approach.
13 But
under the guise of identifying a "severable benefit," Brazil actually attempts to conduct the kind of
simple comparison of fees that Article 14(d) allows for assessing whether a government-provided
service confers a benefit, but that Article 14(c) specifically precludes with respect to loan guarantees.

12. Brazil has not even attempted to make the ki nd of particularized showing contemplated under
Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement. Instead, Brazil relies on sweeping and erroneous assertions that
obligors on loans guaranteed under the GSM-102 program can never obtain any other financing of
any kind and that the United States could never provide an export credit guarantee without also
providing an export subsidy. These arguments simp ly do not square with the evidence submitted by
the United States showing that such obligors are, in fact, able to obtain financing even without
GSM 102 guarantees and on terms better than those available with GSM 102 guarantees. The
declining level of use of the GSM 102 program in recent years is even further evidence of this.

13. Moreover, even though they are not part of the inquiry under Article 14(c), Brazil's other
sweeping theories – including of GSM 102 guarantees being a unique financial instrument – have
been shown to be factually unsupported. These arguments too are unavailing in the face of the
evidence of financial products entirely comparab le with those offered by the United States from
private, profit-seeking entities that are not agencies or instrumentalities of any government. In short,
Brazil has not demonstrated that GSM-102 guarantees presently confer export subsidies.

14. – Measures Taken to Comply Exist With Respect to GSM 102, GSM 103, and SCGP
Guarantees Issued Prior to 1 July 2005. With respect to these measures, the U.S. obligation was to
"cause to decrease or disappear" or "take away" the provision of "the service under the export credit
guarantee programs" at a "net cost to the government, as the service provider."
14 The United States
has done so.

15. There is no merit to Brazil's attempts to call into question the fact that SCGP guarantees have
expired on the basis that the United States is continuing to recover money on claims that it has paid
out on SCGP guarantees in the past. Nor is th ere any basis for Brazil's argument that the
United States is not permitted to make itself whol e by collecting on claims paid out on export credit
guarantees that were issued prior to 1 July 2005.

13 Brazil First Written Submission, paras. 371-375
14 Upland Cotton (Panel), para. 7.804.

16. Moreover, nothing in the SCM Agreement provides that "withdrawing" a "subsidy" allegedly
"taking the form of a program" "includes an ob ligation to abstain from performing on commitments
outstanding under that program as of the deadline for implementation." 15 That argument improperly
equates "performing on commitments under the program" with the "subsidy" itself. Such an equation
was appropriate in Brazil – Aircraft (21.5) , where Brazil continued to issue new WTO-inconsistent
bonds even after the period of implementation on the basis that it had pre-existing contractual
obligations to do so. 16 However, it is not accurate here, where the guarantees are not themselves
prohibited subsidies.

IV. A CTIONABLE SUBSIDY RELATED CLAIMS

17. A number of erroneous assumptions must be made even to get to the merits of Brazil's
actionable subsidy related claims in this proceed ing. The Panel must simply assume, despite the
express statements to the contrary in the original panel report, that the original panel's "present"
serious prejudice finding extends to the Step 2, marketing loan, and counter-cyclical payment
programs and all payments authorized thereunder. Moreover, desp ite the fact that the original panel
could not have known the actual market conditions – and did not examine the likely market conditions
– in MY 2006, the Panel must also assume that the original panel made a finding that "present"
serious prejudice would exist at this time as a r esult of the measures challenged in the original
proceeding. As there is no basis on which to make any of these assumptions, Brazil's claims fail at
the outset. There are also more flaws if one probes further.

18. – Brazil Fails to Substantiate Its Arguments That Termination of the Step 2 Program
Was Effectively Meaningless . The evidence and arguments submitted by Brazil regarding the
termination of the Step 2 program are difficult to credit. They are unsubstantiated, internally
contradictory and inconsistent w ith arguments that Brazil made in the original proceeding on such
fundamental issues as the effects of Step 2 payments on exports and world market prices.

19. Indeed, Brazil's submissions are almost devoid of any acknowledgment that Brazil argued
and, indeed, convinced the original panel to decl are the Step 2 program to be a prohibited export
subsidy. Export subsidies are prohibited because th ey are "dependent for [their] existence on export
performance" and are specifically "'tied to' the export performance."
17 They are, thus, by definition
expected to induce exports and deemed so likely to distort trade that no examination of their actual
trade effects is required under the SCM Agreement in order for a finding against them.

20. Having convinced the original panel to make an export subsidy finding against the Step 2
program – in response to which the United States eliminated the program completely – how can
Brazil now allege that termination of the program has "no impact on th e level of U.S. . . . exports"?
Moreover, given that Brazil's theory of price suppression centres on whether U.S. upland cotton is
exported, how can Brazil now allege th at elimination of that allegedly export-contingent subsidy has
"little positive impact on the world price for cotton in the long term"? 18 These are questions to which
Brazil has yet to provide a credible answer.

21. Moreover, while Brazil may now consider termination of the Step 2 program to be
inconsequential, the loss of the program has not been meaningless to U.S. producers and exporters.
Since the termination of the program, U.S. exports are at exceptionally low le vels – the United States

15 Brazil Rebuttal Submission, para. 396.
16 Brazil – Aircraft (AB), para. 45.
18 Brazil First Written Submission, para. 206 (quo ting Brazil First Written Submission, Annex II,
paras. 41-43).

discussed some of these statistics at start of this presentation – and the forecasts for this marketing
year and the next continue to be poor. It is si mply too early to know precisely how much of this
decline is attributable to the loss of the Step 2 pr ogram. Undoubtedly some of it is not. But what is
clear is that Brazil's assertion that termination of the Step 2 program has "no impact on the level of
U.S. production or exports" and "little positive impact on the world price for cotton" finds little basis
in the empirical evidence. The evidence, in fact, supports exactly the opposite conclusion.
22. – Brazil Does Not Demonstrate That Marketing Loan and Counter-Cyclical Payments
Are Causing "Present" Significant Price Suppression. Nor are marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments presently significantly "suppressi ng" world market prices within the meaning of
Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement. Brazil's theory, in general terms, is that "payments-
cause-overproduction-cause--price-suppression." To support its theory, though, Brazil would have to:
(a) submit persuasive evidence showing that market ing loan payments and counter-cyclical payments
are actually inducing U.S. farmers to plant more cotton than they otherwise would; (b) show that the
degree of effect on U.S. farmers' planting decisions, pr oduction, and export is such as to have impacts
on world market prices; and (c) submit evidence to show that the degree of effect on world market
prices is "significant" within the meaning of Article 6.3(c). Brazil has not done so.

23. Evidence Regarding Actual Production Decisions and Eff ects of Payments Undermines
Brazil's Claims. In assessing the evidence and arguments submitted by Brazil, it is important to bear
in mind that a claim of "present" serious prejudice under Articles 5(c) and 6. 3(c) requires a showing
that significant price suppression actually exists under the prevailing market conditions. Brazil
cannot simply allege – or attempt to show – that marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments have
the potential to induce production. It is also important to note that Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) are
concerned with the effects of subsidies, not their form. Thus, Brazil's efforts to show that marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payment programs provide income support in times of low prices do not go
far. Nothing in the SCM Agreement or any other agreement prohibits income support categorically.

24. Given Brazil's particular theory of planting effects leading to price effects, it is necessary to
examine the actual planting decisions made by U.S. farmers. At a minimum, any assessment must be
grounded in the understanding that in each year when a farmer sits down to decide whether to plant
cotton, he does not know with certainty (a) what prices will be for cotton at the time of harvest, (b)
what prices will be for competing crops at that time, (c) what his yields will ultimately be, (d) whether
he might ultimately get a marketing loan paymen t on cotton or other crops, and (e) whether the
season-average farm price for the upcoming marketing year will ultimately be below the threshold at
which he might receive a counter-cyclical payment with respect to any upland cotton base acres that
he holds. The farmer's planting decision must be made on the basis of expectations.

25. While Brazil has acknowledged (at least so me) of these basic facts of upland cotton
production
19, little of the evidence and arguments submitte d by Brazil actually take these facts into
account and show – on the basis thereof – signifi cant production effects under the market conditions
prevailing at present. By contrast, the United St ates has submitted evidence that takes into account
the actual operation of the marketing loan a nd counter-cyclical payment programs and shows minimal
effects on production, including (a) recent studies, (b) a nationwide survey of farmers' planting
considerations, (c) evidence that much of counter-cyclical payments is passed through to non-operator
landowners in the form of higher rents and land values, data showi ng that substantially less upland
cotton (40 percent less) is planted by holders of upland cotton base acres today than at the time base
acres were set, (d) data showing that a significan t and growing portion of U.S. upland cotton planted
acreage is on farms with cotton planted acreage th at exceeds cotton base acres, or, indeed, on farms
with no cotton base acres, and (e) evidence showing that futures prices for harvest-time contracts were

19 See e.g., Brazil First Written Submission, Annex I, para. 36 (emphasis added).

above the marketing loan rate in MY 2006 and that , even in earlier years when they were not, the
evidence shows that U.S. farmers' planting decisions were driven by market factors, not expectation
of payments under the marketing loan program. Th is evidence contradicts Brazil's theory that
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments have significant effects on planting.
26. Brazil purports to demonstrate indirect production effects through its claim that U.S. planting,
production, and exports are not responsive to prices. However, Brazil's comparisons are flawed in
that they ignore basic facts of upland cotton production; for example, by comparing planting
decisions in a marketing year to the actual prices that develop many months later 20 or to the futures
prices of upland cotton alone.21 Moreover, the theory that Br azil advances of alleged market
insulation is at variance with the empirical eviden ce. Indeed, Brazil's theory depends on the notion
that the income support provided by marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments causes U.S.
farmers to produce and U.S. exporters to export when anticipated low pr ices cause producers and
exporters elsewhere to pull back. If that were tr ue, one would expect to see U.S. share of world
production and world exports increase. But that is not what one finds. Rather, U.S. share of world
production and exports has been stable over the entir e period of the FSRI Act and, indeed – in terms
of production – for many years before that as well. This shows that, contrary to Brazil's arguments,
U.S. producers and exporters have reacted to market signals in their production and exports in a
similar way to their foreign counterparts.

27. Brazil has argued that U.S. producers cannot meet their total costs without marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments. Brazil asserts that this shows that without marketing loan and counter-
cyclical payments, many U.S. producers would not have remained in business and continued planting
upland cotton. Table A.1
22 shows, however, that the overwhe lming majority of U.S. production
(92 per cent) takes place on low- and mid-cost farms that meet both their variable (or operating) costs
and also their total costs of pr oduction. This means that, for 92 percent of U.S. production of upland
cotton, Brazil's theory of a cost-revenue gap fails as a matter of fact. In other words, with respect to
92 percent of U.S. production, it is not necessary even to reach the arguments regarding the other
flaws in Brazil's reasoning regarding the alleged cost-revenue gap. That gap simply does not exist.

28. There are other problems in Brazil's analysis as well, including the fact that Brazil incorrectly
assumes that total costs of producing upland cotton are determinative for both year-to-year planting
decisions and for longer-term decisions, such as whether to continue or exit upland cotton farming. In
the former case, it is variable costs that are relevant and, in the latter, it is the total cost/revenue
balance of the farm – of which costs and revenues fo r upland cotton is one factor – that is relevant.
Moreover, the evidence shows that U.S. producers not only meet their variable costs with market
revenue from sales of upland cotton, but also their total costs.

29. Brazil Has Not Submitted Reliable Evidence Regar ding the Degree of Any Price Effect.
The only evidence that Brazil has submitted purporting to examine the price effects of marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payments specifically are the results of the modeling exercise that it has
conducted for purposes of this proceeding. That ex ercise is conducted using a model that is entirely
different from the one advanced by Brazil in the origin al proceeding, but that is virtually identical to
one that was published in 2005, in a CATO institute publication, by Dr. Sumner, Brazil's economist.
In the CATO publication, Dr. Sumner warned that his model "abstract[s] from many complexities that
would be important to get more pr ecise estimates" and that "[t]he simple model laid out here does not

20 See e.g., Brazil First Written Submission, paras. 144-145.
21 See e.g., Brazil First Written Submission, paras. 142-143 and Brazil Rebuttal Submission.
paras. 221-224.
22 Exhibit US-119.

represent the depth of analysis that would be appr opriate to support a trade remedy proceeding or a
serious prejudice claim before a WTO panel."
23 The United States agrees.

30. We have identified a number of the key pr oblems with Brazil's new model. These include
that the model: (a) lacks cross-commodity impacts and cross-price elasticities, potentially leading to
biased price effects; (b) is static with no explicit relationships for changes in cotton stock levels and
no stocks equation; (c) contains foreign supply elasticities that are different from FAPRI that
underestimate the response of foreign producers to changes in world prices; (d) treats production
flexibility payments and direct payments differen tly even though they operate in the same way;
(e) incorporates Step 2 payments directly into the producer revenue function as fully coupled
payments, and (f) appears to ignore statutory para meters, for example by including counter-cyclical
payment rates in each of the various price expectations that sometimes exceed the statutory maximum.
These are just some of the problems that stem from the structure of the model itself, and the
simplified, reduced nature of the assessment it attempts to conduct.

31. Even more significant biases result from the flawed econometric parameters used by the
Sumner II model. Although Brazil has indicated that its new model "employs many of the same
parameters used in the model and analysis submitt ed to the original panel, as well as parameters
commonly used by USDA and Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute ("FAPRI")
economists,"
24 this is untrue. As shown in Table A-2 (Exhibit US-120), the elasticity estimates used
by the Sumner I model (which were purported to be "FAPRI-based") and the Sumner II model differ
in each case except for the estimate of the U.S. mill demand elasticity.

32. These differences matter because they can – and do – have dramatic effects on the estimated
outcomes. As shown in Table A.2, not only does th e Sumner II model use different elasticities than
the Sumner I model, but, in each case, the Sumner II model elasticity results in a greater effect on
world price due to an elimination of marketing lo ans and counter-cyclical payments. Moreover, the
Sumner II model simply ignores the demand for US and world cotton stocks. Yet, as Brazil has
acknowledged, year-to-year fluctuati ons in stock levels are important factors in any credible analysis
of world cotton markets.
25 The modifications made by Brazil exaggerate the effects of the elimination
of marketing loans and counter-cyclical payments on world cotton price.

33. Brazil has not provided any valid basis for discarding the generally-accepted economic
parameters that it recognized, itself, as being appropriate in the original proceeding. As Brazil argued
at that time, the FAPRI econometric model is well-established, well-known and widely used.
26 It is
also valuable inasmuch as its calculations and pa rameters have not been developed in conjunction
with any specific dispute or on behalf of any specific party. The FAPRI model has a strong
foundation within economic circles a nd is well-respected. The Sumner II model, by contrast, has no
foundation within economic circles. Although Dr. Sumner argues that the departures from FAPRI-
based parameters indicate "improvements based on . . . continued research," Brazil has not identified
that "research" and has provided no citation to any independent literature or other established or
accepted bases for the new parameters.

34. Brazil has also attempted to justify a numbe r of its flawed econometric parameters on the
basis that it is looking to assess the impact of eliminating the marketing loan and counter-cyclical

23 Daniel A. Sumner. "Boxed In: Conflicts Be tween U.S. Farm Policies and WTO Obligations."
Center for Trade Policy Studies, The Cato Institute, December 2005. (Exhibit US-108)
26 Brazil Further Submission to the Panel, 9 September 2003, para 214.

payment programs in the short-run, while leaving all else equal. 27 However, under Article 6.3(c) the
question is what, if any, degree of price suppression exists presently as a result of the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment programs and whether th is degree of price suppression is "significant."
To the extent a counterfactual assessment is undertak en, it is only to assess what the price equilibrium
would be at present if marketing loan and counter-cyc lical payments had been lower, different, or did
not exist. Article 6.3(c) does not ask what prices w ill look like in the short-run adjustment period if
the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments are suddenly eliminated. Indeed, Members are not
even required to eliminate measures found to be actionable subsidies; they are given a choice
between "withdrawing" the subsidy or removing its adve rse effects. Thus, in addition to the fact that
the economic literature supports a long-term assessme nt, Brazil's argument that it is necessary to look
at the short-run effects of total elimination of the programs cannot be accurate as a textual matter.
35. Second, it is not credible for Brazil to ar gue for a disproportionately small rest-of-world
supply response on the basis that "there is imperfect transmission of price changes" because "market
institutions, centralized crop marketing, government policies, limited information, and high per-unit
transportation costs partially insulate producers in certain regions of the world" from any alleged price
changes.28 The United States recalls that Brazil insisted in the original proceeding that different
domestic prices were intimately connected and that a change in U.S. prices would be reflected fairly
immediately in the prices of all major cotton producers. Moreover, even Brazil has recognized that, in
the mid to long run, there is price transmission. It is that response that is properly captured here.

36. To capture the long run effects of removal of marketing loans and counter-cyclical
payments, the United States has also applie d parameter estimates taken from the UNCTAD-
FAO Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model. The summary results are presented in table A.4
(Exhibit US-122) for the periods MY 2002-2005 and MY 2006-2008. These conservative results – in
the range of 0.96 to 2.26 percent – which obtain from some very basic changes to the parameters of
Brazil's new model illustrate that the estimates provide d by Brazil of price effects in the range of 9-11
percent substantially overstate any possible impact on world market price.

37. – Brazil Has Not Shown That the Degree of Effect on World Market Prices Is
"Significant" Within the Meaning of Article 6.3(c). In Brazil's first submission, Brazil simply
referred back to the same evidence it had submitt ed purporting to show price suppression and argued
that "even a fraction of the effects found by Pr ofessor Sumner would constitute price suppression,
based on its effect on [the] large volume of sales in the world market."
29 In its rebuttal submission,
Brazil did not address the issue at all.

38. There is no textual basis for Brazil's lone theory of "significant" price suppression – that,
effectively, any amount of price suppression is "s ignificant" because the wo rld upland cotton market
is a high volume market. Brazil's approach would effectively create a per se rule of "significant"
price suppression for certain markets involving large volumes of sales. Such a rule is not found in
Articles 5(c) or 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement or any other provision.

39. Contrary to Brazil's assertions, it is necessary to make a showing on the facts of a dispute that
any proven price suppression is "significant." Brazil has not attempted to make such a showing here.
And, in any event, a finding of "significant" price suppression is not justified under the circumstances.
Brazil has provided no basis for its claims that th is degree of price suppression – even less than a cent
per pound, in conservative terms – constitutes "s ignificant" price suppression. If such unfounded
assertions were to prevail, they would effectively write "significant" out of Article 6.3(c) entirely.

27 See e.g., Brazil First Written Submission, Annex I, 25-26.
28 Brazil First Written Submission, Annex I, para. 28.

ANNEX C-4

CLOSING STATEMENT OF THE UNITED STATES

(28 February 2007)

1. Mr. Chairman, we will end in this meeting where we started, recalling that this is a
compliance proceeding pursuant to Article 21.5 of the DSU. The question in this proceeding is
whether Brazil has shown that U.S. measures take n to comply with the DSB's recommendations and
rulings are inconsistent with the covered agreements cited by Brazil.

2. The United States has taken measures to comp ly with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB. Let us recall what they are:

• The longer term GSM-103 program is gone.

• The Supplier Credit Guarantee Program is gone.

• The old fee schedule that did not take into account relative risk is gone, replaced by a
fee schedule graduated by both risk and te nor, comprised of 6 risk grades of ever-
increasing fees. As a result, fees under the schedule have increased 46 percent.

• Obligors in countries that present a worse risk than permitted under the fee schedule
are excluded entirely from the GSM-102 program. This is not a static determination
simply to exclude certain countries on 1 July 2005. Rather, any country that falls to
an unacceptable risk grade will be excluded from eligibility.

3. As a result of the reforms, total guarantees have declined over 63 percent from $3.7 billion in
FY 2004 to $1.36 billion in FY 2006.

4. Mr. Chairman, the United States is fully in compliance with item (j) of the SCM Agreement.
Indeed, the data show that the United States was in compliance even before making all of these
changes. Certainly, the imposition of these further disciplines only further confirms that.

5. Brazil urges this Panel to ignore the analytical basis for the Panel's original decision, and the
clear textual guidance indicating that item (j) "illust rates" dispositively how the general definition of
"export subsidy" in Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) apply. The United States does not agree, but, nonetheless,
has shown that – even under Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement, which Brazil has invoked as
context in assessing "benefit" under Article 1.1 – Brazil, which bears the burden of proof in this case,
has failed to identify any distinct benefit under Article 1.1.

6. The United States has supplied other real-w orld examples of commercial banks providing
financing comparable to that under the GSM-102 program, but Brazil derides these examples as
irrelevant because, despite the explicit language of Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement, Brazil
considers the proper comparison is not of the tota l costs of the guaranteed loan transaction, but
whether only one component of all the elements of the transaction – fees – are on terms more
favorable than those provided by a private commercial bank.

7. There is no basis for that interpretation. Brazil is urging the Panel to ignore both of the
two provisions of the SCM Agreement that specifi cally talk about the conditions under which export

credit guarantees may be considered subsidies – prohi bited export subsidies in the case of item (j) and
subsidies subject to CVD actions in the case of Ar ticle 14(c). Brazil would have the Panel overlook
the fact that neither calls for a comparison to fees alone.

8. Mr. Chairman, the market for export credit gua rantees is not – and has never been – one in
which purely private banks – like Citibank, for exam ple – operate. Indeed, ag ainst this background,
one can understand why the drafters would – in both item (j) and Article 14(c) use a benchmark other
than one looking to fees charged for purely private market-provided guarantees.

9. By insisting that the Panel simply ignore the provisions expressly agreed upon by the drafters
in item (j) – and, indeed, in Article 14(c) – Braz il is effectively urging the Panel to find that all export
credit guarantees are per se prohibited. Such an interpretation is simply untenable.

10. Returning to the issue of the U.S. measures ta ken to comply, the United States recalls that it
also has eliminated the Step 2 program. This program was found to be a prohibited export subsidy, as
well as a prohibited import substitution subsidy, and payments thereunde r in MY 1999-2002 were
found to cause adverse effects in the same period.

11. These measures – the measures in respect of the export credit guarantee programs and the
Step 2 program – are the measures that the United States has taken to comply. Brazil has sought in
this proceeding to diminish and dismiss each and every one of these measures while simultaneously
attempting to broaden the scope of this proceeding so that the United States will be considered to have
failed to have met its implementati on obligations. For example, Brazil argues that the marketing loan
and counter-cyclical payment programs are "measures taken to comply."

12. Mr. Chairman, this is just a fiction. The Appellate Body has recognized before that measures
taken to comply are ordinarily changes made s ubsequent to the issuance of DSB recommendations
and rulings. The marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs were in existence at the time
of the original proceeding, were even challenged by Brazil in the original proceeding, and they remain
the same now. These are not measures that the United States has taken to comply with any
recommendations and rulings.

13. The question then is whether they were subject to the original panel's findings of "present"
serious prejudice. The United States has submitted detailed arguments as to why they were not. In
doing so, the United States has taken into account the fact that Brazil made no "present" serious
prejudice claims against the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs, that the only
claims made by Brazil in respect of those measures were "threat" of serious prejudice claims, and that
the original panel expressly stated that it was declining to make even that finding.

14. Nonetheless, the United States has shown that even if one considers Brazil's arguments on the
merits, it is without basis. The argument, in essence , is that elimination of the Step 2 program does
not eliminate any adverse effects of the "package" of Step 2, market loan, and counter-cyclical
payment programs. But, as we discussed yesterday, Brazil's arguments in that regard fail to address
the actual market facts that have prevailed since termination of the Step 2 program and are not
consistent with Brazil's own arguments in the original proceeding.

15. Like its shifting arguments regarding the imp act of the Step 2 program, Brazil's counterpart
argument – that the marketing loan and counter-cyc lical payment programs con tinue to have adverse
effects – continues to shift. Yesterday we heard – I believe for the first time in this proceeding – that
it is unsold stocks and not exported surplus that is responsib le for the alleged price suppression. The
fact is, Mr. Chairman, it is too late in the day for Brazil to be altering such fundamental factors as its
theory of price suppression. And, in any event, Brazil has submitted no evidence or argument to
substantiate this new assertion.

16. Brazil's claims regarding the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs fail for a
single fundamental reason. They are not supporte d by the evidence. Much of Brazil's oral
presentation again stressed its premise that large payments necessarily show large effects. As Brazil
admitted before the Appellate Body, however, this is not correct. While the size of payments is
undoubtedly a consideration – and likely an important one – the focus of an adverse effects claim is,
not surprisingly, on effects.

17. We pointed out before that empirical evidence does not support Brazil's arguments regarding
price effects ( i.e., that payments-cause-production-cau se-exports-cause-price suppression).
Presumably, in response to this, Brazil, in its pr esentation yesterday, supplied a slew of charts
purporting to show that year-to-year decisions to plant upland cotton are economically irrational. As
we discussed earlier, Brazil's analysis fails because it relies on an inappropriate measure of costs that
is not relevant to U.S. farmers' planting decisions year-to-year.

18. Beyond this, the only real "evidence" that Br azil presents appears to highlight are the results
of the new Sumner model, one that abandons most of th e economic constructs that Brazil previously
argued were accurate and superior. Brazil has o ffered an economic model without foundation or
publication in any peer reviewed journal. Then , Brazil altered virtually every critical economic
parameter used by that model to inflate its resu lt. The United States has shown why the model is
flawed and why its economic parameters are unreliable.

19. Using reasonable and realistic parameters, ev en Brazil's model shows small effects from the
U.S. programs.

20. Indeed, this confirms what other evidence – recent studies of the empirical data, actual
assessments of year-to-year planting decisions (t aking into account proper variable costs), and
evidence of the stable share of U.S. production an d export market share – already shows; namely,
that payments under the marketing loan and coun ter-cyclical payment programs are not having the
kind of significant price effects that Brazil has alleged.

Mr Chairman, members of the Panel:

I. INTRODUCTION
1. Argentina is grateful for this opportunity to give its views on the issues raised in the present
Panel proceedings. In this oral statement, we wish to address some of the parties' arguments that we
did not discuss in our written submission and which concern the United States' submission of
preliminary issues to the Panel.
2. Argentina would like in particular to refer to the United States' objection to the inclusion of
the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes in these Article 21.5 proceedings.
II. ARGUMENTS
THE MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS PROGRAMMES
ARE WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT DSU ARTICLE 21.5 PROCEEDINGS

3. The United States asserts in its submissions
1 that many of Brazil's claims are beyond the
scope of Article 21.5 proceedings. In particul ar, in response to Brazil's claims against the
programmes authorizing marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments, it states:
 (a) That they are not original measures that were subject to Panel findings and
recommendations, and
 (b) that they are not measures the United States took to comply with
DSB recommendations.
4. For the reasons set out below, Argentina strongly disagrees with both assertions and with the
United States' arguments supporting them:
A. THE PROGRAMMES AUTHORIZING MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER -CYCLICAL PAYMENTS
ARE ORIGINAL MEASURES THAT WERE SUBJECT TO FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5. First, in Argentina's view it is obvious that the original Panel considered these programmes as
measures at issue in its final Report (section G) when di scussing Brazil's actionable subsidies-related
claims and allegations of serious prejudice.
6. In particular, in paragraph 7.11 07 of its Report, in identifying the measures at issue the Panel
includes under (ii) marketing loan programme paymen ts; under (iv) counter-cyclical payments; and
specifically, under (ix), the last indent, " legislative and regulatory provisions currently providing
for the payment of measures in (i), (ii), (v), (vi) and (vii) above."2
7. Accordingly, in Argentina's view, to the question whether the programmes ordering
marketing loan payments and counter-cyclical paymen ts were part of the "matter at issue" in the
original proceedings, the only valid reply is an affirmative one.
8. Secondly, Argentina observes that, contrary to what the United States contends, not only were
the programmes among the measures at issue, they we re also subject to the Panel conclusions and

1 First Written Submission of the United States, Section IV(B) and (C); United States' Rebuttal
Submission, Section II(B).
2 Emphasis added.

recommendations, subsequently confirmed by the DSB, as can be seen from Chapter VIII of the
Report, which sets out the Panel's conclusions and recommendations. Specifically, the Panel
concludes, in paragraph 8.1(g):
 "[ … ]

(g) concerning serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil:
(i) the effect of the mandatory price-contingent United States subsidy
measures3 – marketing loan programme paym ents, user marketing (Step 2)
payments, MLA payments and CCP payments – is significant price
suppression in the same world market with in the meaning of Article 6.3(c) of
the SCM Agreement constituting serious prejudice to the interests of Brazil
within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement; [ … ]"

9. Then, at paragraph 8.3(d), regarding the subsid ies that are the subject of the above-mentioned
conclusion the Panel states, citing Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement:
"[ … ], upon adoption of this report, the United States is under an obligation to 'take
appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or … withdraw the subsidy'".
10. Consequently, as emerges from the text of the Pa nel's report, the mandatory price-contingent
United States subsidy measures, i.e. the legislative and regulatory provisions for payments under the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes are subject to Panel recommendations.
11. Thirdly, and as confirmation of the foregoing , what the Panel said in paragraphs 7.1499
and 7.1501 – cited by Brazil in its submission of 16 January last – is most enlightening: it states
unequivocally that:
"[ … ] our finding of "present" serious prej udice thus pertains also to measures in
force and subsidies paid in MY2002, the first year of the FSRI Act of 2002."
And goes on to say:
"Because the Panel's "present" serious prejudice findings include findings of
inconsistency that deal with the FSRI Act of 2002 and subsidies granted thereunder in
MY 2002, the United States is obliged to take action concerning its present statutory
and regulatory framework as a result of our "present" serious prejudice finding. We
recall that, pursuant to Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement, the United States is under
an obligation to "take appropriate steps to remove the adverse effects or … withdraw
the subsidy"."
12. In the light of the foregoing, Argentina sees no merit in the United States' assertion that the
programmes
 authorizing marketing loan and counter-cycli cal payments were not subject to findings
and recommendations by the original Panel.

3 Emphasis added.

B.
THE PROGRAMMES AUTHORIZING MARKETING LOAN AND COUNTER -CYCLICAL PAYMENTS
ARE PART OF THE NEW BASKET OF MEASURES TAKEN TO COMPLY
13. As to the second point, the United States conte nds that Brazil's claims against the marketing
loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes are beyond the scope of the present proceedings
because they are not United States " measures taken to comply "; and that they are unrelated to the
existence or consistency with a covered ag reement of measures taken to comply with
recommendations and rulings of the DSB, as the programmes remain unchanged.4
14. Argentina agrees with Brazil that what we have here is a new basket of mandatory price-
contingent measures as a result of the cancellation of the Step 2 programme, one of the measures the
United States took to comply with the DSB's recommendations.
15. In Argentina's view it is also worth pointing out that there is no claim seeking to challenge
some unchanged aspect of the measure which was not already challenged in the original proceedings,
or which was challenged but found to be consistent – rather the contrary. Nor is there a claim that
seeks to impugn separate measures which have undergone no change since the original proceedings.
As Brazil says, what we have here is a new measur e or "new basket of measures", to use the Panel's
expression.
16. Furthermore, given the particular ities of subsidy regulation, the SCM Agreement does not
require an analysis of the adverse effects of actionable subsidies to be carried out for each and every
programme or payment. Rather, it focuses on the "collective effect" of the subsidies, the approach the
Panel followed. Otherwise, there is every likeliho od that individually, they would not be sizeable
enough to cause adverse effects. Consequently, the finding of serious prejudice affects "a basket of
measures" and cannot be split so as to relate to each one separately.
17. Argentina takes issue with the Un ited States' assertion that the fact that the Panel considered
the effects of the programmes and payments cumu latively in determining the existence of present
serious prejudice does nothing to change the fact that they are separable.
5 Argentina believes that
although they may be separated for the purpose of a descriptive study of their structure, design and
operation, they are not separable from the legal standpoint of establishing the makeup of the serious
prejudice, in accordance with the terms of the Panel's collective finding.
18. Consequently, bearing in mind the Panel's conclusion that " the effect of the mandatory price-
contingent United States subsidy measures [ … ] is significant6 price suppression [ … ] within the
meaning of Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement constituting serious prejudice to the interests of
Brazil within the meaning of Article 5(c) of the SCM Agreement", it is necessary to reconstruct the
collective analysis in order to ascertain whether the change brought about to this set of measures by
the cancellation of the Step 2 programme is sufficient to conclude that the United States has complied
with the DSB's recommendations in this regard.
19. The Panel's conclusion in paragraph 7.1503 of the report is enlightening here:
"We consider that, upon required implementa tion by the United States of this Panel's
prohibited subsidy findings and present serious prejudice findings, the basket of
measures in question may be so significantly transformed or manifestly different from
the measures that are currently in question that it is not necessary or appropriate to

4 Rebuttal Submission of the United States, paragraph 18.
5 Rebuttal Submission of the United States, paragraph 61.
6 Emphasis added.

address Brazil's claims of threat of serious prejudice under Articles 5(c) and 6.3(c) of
the SCM Agreement."
20. It may properly be concluded from the above th at the Panel's recommendations were directed
to a "basket of measures" and not to measures taken individually.
21. Argentina therefore takes the view that th e programmes authorizing marketing loan and
counter-cyclical payments are part of the new bask et of measures taken to comply, and as such fall
within the scope of the Article 21.5 proceedings.
III. CONCLUSION
 In the light of all the foregoing, Argentin a respectfully asks the Panel to take into
consideration the arguments and views expressed above when reaching its decision on the preliminary
issues raised by the United States.

Thank you very much.

ANNEX C-6

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF AUSTRALIA

28 February 2007

Members of the Panel,

1. Thank you for the opportunity to present the views of Australia.

2. This proceeding raises a number of important issues concerning the scope of Article 21.5
proceedings and the appropriate steps that mu st be taken by a Member to comply with
Articles 4.7 and 7.8 of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures
(SCM Agreement).

3. Australia has provided a written submission addressing some of these issues and will not
repeat those arguments today. Rather, Au stralia will concentrate on whether the United
States, by repealing the Step 2 programme, but maintaining the two other price-contingent
subsidies (that is, the marketing loan progra mme payments and counter-cyclical payments),
has taken appropriate steps to remove the adve rse effects or to withdraw the subsidies under
Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement in accordance with the recommendations and rulings of the
Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). In considering this question, it is important to bear in mind
the nature of Article 21.5 proceedings.

Nature of Article 21.5 proceedings

4. The role of an Article 21.5 pane l is to determine the existence or consistency with a covered
agreement of measures taken to comply with DSB recommendations and rulings. Its mandate
does not extend to relitigation of issues that have been conclusively determined in the original
dispute. Such is the case in the present pro ceedings, where measures continue in existence
that have been previously ruled upon and remain unchanged. It is uncontested that two of the
challenged price-contingent subsidies, which are by far the largest of the subsidies that were
challenged in the original proceedings relative to the subsidy that has been withdrawn, have
continued under programmes that have not b een changed since the recommendations and
rulings in the original dispute were adopted by th e DSB. In this situation, the Panel's task is
limited to a factual determination to that effect.

5. Should it make this determination, the Panel w ill then need to consider, on the basis of the
supporting economic evidence, whether the mainta ined subsidies continue to cause adverse
effects within the meaning of Article 5 of the SCM Agreement.

6. This question cannot be answered by confining th e Panel's examination to the effect of the
subsidies made in 1999-2002. Such an appro ach, which appears to be advocated by the
United States
1, would undermine the remedy that is provided by Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement – that is, to compel the subsidizing Member to take appropriate steps to
remove the adverse effects or withdraw the subsidy. This approach would require a
successful complainant to bring a fresh actionabl e subsidies claim with respect to each set of

1 See, for example, First Submission and Request fo r Preliminary Rulings of the United States,
paras. 45, 146-148; Rebuttal Submission of the United States of America, paras. 17; 33-34.

subsidies made subsequently to those originally found to cause adverse effects. This cannot
be the remedy that was contemplated by Article 7. 8. Moreover, such an approach would also
be contrary to Article 21.1 of the DSU, which recognises that prompt compliance with the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB is es sential to ensure effective resolution of
disputes. Article 21.5 of the DSU promotes this aim.
2
Turning to Brazil's actionable subsidies claim
7. The question that is central to Brazil's actionable subsidies claim is whether discontinuation of
one price-contingent subsidy bu t continuation of two other price-contingent subsidies meets
the requirements of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement. In examining this question, Australia
submits that the analytical approach adopted in the original proceedings is an appropriate one
to be followed by this Panel. The original Panel, after making explicit findings as to the
trade-distorting effects of each of the challe nged price-contingent subsidies individually, 3
found that the effects of these subsidies, cons idered collectively, caused significant price
suppression in the same world market.4
8. Taking the original Panel's findings as to the tr ade-distorting effects of these subsidies into
account, this Panel may then consider whether the collective effect of the continuing subsidies
(that is marketing loan programme payments and counter-cyclical payments) is significant
price suppression in the same world market.
9. Australia notes that if this approach is followed, then the findings in the original proceedings
as to the effect of other causal factors that the United States asserts affect the causal link
between the United States' subsidies and the significant price suppression cannot be
overlooked.5 Many of those factors are the same factors that were relied upon by the United
States in the original proceedings. Australia subm its that it is open to this Panel to reach the
same conclusions in relation to those factors as were drawn in the original proceedings.
Those conclusions were that these factors did not sever the causal link between United States'
subsidies for upland cotton and significant pri ce suppression in the same world market. That
is, these factors did not "reduce the effect of the mandatory price-contingent subsidies to a
level which cannot be considered 'significant.'"6
10. Furthermore, Australia agrees with Brazil that in order to determine whether the effect of the
two continuing price-contingent subsidies is "present" serious prejudice, it is necessary to
examine a recent period for which essentially comp lete data exists. That period is, according
to Brazil, data for marketing year 2005, ther e being no complete data as yet for marketing
year 2006. 7 In fact that year has not yet finish ed. In agreeing with Brazil's submission,
Australia notes that this approach is the one th at was adopted by the Panel in the original
proceedings.8
11. In finding that the effect of the mandatory pri ce-contingent United States' subsidy measures
was significant price suppression in the same world market within the meaning of

2 United States – Softwood Lumber IV (Article 21.5 – Canada) , Report of the Appellate Body,
WT/DS257/AB/RW, para. 72.
3 See, for example, WT/DS267/R, paras. 7.1295, 7.1302, 7.1303, 7.1308.
 4 Ibid., para. 7.1349.
 5 Ibid., paras. 7.1344-46; 7.1357-63; See also WT/DS267/AB/R, para. 437.
6 WT/DS267/R, para. 7.1363; WT/DS267/AB/R, paras. 455-457.
7 Rebuttal Submission of Brazil to the Panel, paras. 23-24.
8 WT/DS267/R, paras. 7.1198-9.

Article 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement
9, the Panel at first instance had the benefit of extensive
economic analysis and modelling presented by Brazil. 10 Updated economic analysis and
modelling has been submitted by Brazil in the pr esent proceedings. In Australia's view, this
updated economic analysis and modelling represen ts the same appropriate and conservative
economic methodology as that which was taken into account by the Panel in the original
proceedings.
11 This data supports Brazil's central assertion that but-for the domestic subsidies
at issue, the world price for cotton would be significantly higher.
12. If, as a result of examining the effects of the continued price-contingent subsidies under the
marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes, considered collectively and on
the basis of the economic evidence presented, th e Panel finds that these subsidies collectively
cause significant price suppression, then Austra lia submits that the only conclusion open to
this Panel is that the United States has not comp lied fully with the requirements of Article 7.8
of the SCM Agreement. That is, the United States has failed to remove the adverse effects or
withdraw the subsidies that were the subj ect of the DSB's recommendations and rulings,
within the meaning of Article 7.8.
Threat of serious prejudice
13. In relation to Brazil's claim in the alternative that the continued subsid ies threaten to cause
serious prejudice in marketing years 2006 and beyon d, Australia submits that it is beside the
point for the United States to argue that the programmes under consideration are due to expire
in late 2007. The programmes ha ve not expired. There is no guarantee that they will not be
rolled over or maintained in another form with adverse effect. Australia therefore submits
that the Panel is entitled to consider whethe r the continuance of subsidies under programmes
whose design, structure and operation remain un changed, would give rise to a threat of
serious prejudice.
14. Australia notes that in the original proceedi ngs, the Panel exercised judicial economy with
respect to Brazil's claim of threat of serious prejudice relating to the marketing
years 2003-2007. The Panel's approach was based on the assumption, since proved to be
erroneous, that the statutory and regulator y framework under which the subsidies were
granted would be fundamentally altered in r esponse to the Panel's present serious prejudice
finding.
12 It is justifiable that Brazil, by seeking a ruling in the alternative concerning the
threat of serious prejudice, should wish to avoid this situation being maintained in the future.
15. In conclusion, Australia submits that it is appr opriate for this Panel to adopt the analytical
approach that was adopted by the Panel in th e original proceedings. Given the fact that
two of the price-contingent subsidies have con tinued in unaltered form, it is also appropriate
that the original findings, recommendations a nd rulings relating to those subsidies should
form the starting point for this Panel's anal ysis. The updated evidence submitted by Brazil
supports the conclusion that those subsidies, considered collectively, continue to cause
adverse effects to the interests of Brazil. Given the continuing adverse effects of these
subsidies, Australia submits that the Panel can only conclude that the United States has failed
to take appropriate steps to remove those effe cts or withdraw the subsidy within the meaning
of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement, and has therefore failed to comply fully with the DSB's
recommendations and rulings in this dispute.

 9 Ibid., para. 8.1(g)(i).
10 Ibid., paras. 7.1202-9.
11 Ibid., para. 7.1209.
12 Ibid., para. 7.1501.

ANNEX C-7

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF CANADA

28 February 2007

I. INTRODUCTION
1. Good morning Mr. Chairman, members of the Pa nel, thank you for giving me this opportunity
to present Canada's views on particular legal issues raised in this proceeding.
2. Canada's submission addresses three issues. First, Canada submits that the standard for
finding a threat of serious prejudice pursuant to Article 5 of the SCM Agreement and GATT
Article XVI:1 is flexible. In some instances, such as in the case at hand, a threat of serious prejudice
may arise when the threat is reasonably foreseeable and ever-present, even if it is not necessarily
"imminent". Second, Canada submits that for the purposes of quantifying a benefit under
Article 14(c), a commercial comparison is required. Third, Canada submits that the United States'
GSM 102 program cannot benefit from an a contrario reading of Annex I to the SCM Agreement.
Item (j) does not allow for an a contrario interpretation. The only programs that are excluded by
Annex I from the definition of export subsidies in Ar ticle 3.1(a) are those explicitly "referred to" in
Annex I as not constituting export subsidies.
II. THREAT OF SERIOUS PREJUDICE
3. Allow me, first, to briefly turn to the standard for a finding of threat of serious prejudice. I do
not propose to dwell on this issue, but rather refer the Panel to Canada's written submission.
However, I will reiterate that the definition of "threat of material injury" in Part V of the
SCM Agreement should not be imported into the definition of "threat of serious prejudice", in Part III
of that Agreement. Nothing in Part III of the SCM Agreement suggests a strict temporal limitation to
the notion of threat of serious prejudice. The standard for threat of serious prejudice is sufficiently
flexible to address programs that give rise to an ever-present and reasonably foreseeable probability of
massive subsidies to United States' farmers – subs idies that permanently threaten to cause serious
prejudice – as well as programs that will imminently cause adverse effects.
4. The U.S. subsidy programs mandate the paym ent of subsidies upon certain conditions. One
of these conditions is the price of cotton falling to a specified level, a condition that has occurred in
the past. Given the vagaries of the market, it is probable that the price of cotton will fall again. When
that happens, it will again trigger massive subsidy payments. When these payments are made, they
will again cause WTO Members serious prejudice. The counter-cyclical payment program and the
marketing loan program are, therefore, permanently threatening to cause serious prejudice.
III. ARTICLE 14(C)
5. I now turn to Canada's second issu e, which involves Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement .
Brazil argues that the "GSM 102" program constitutes an export subsidy prohibited by Article 3 of the
SCM Agreement. In part, Brazil argues that this expor t credit guarantee, or "ECG", confers a per se
benefit because it secures financing that would not ot herwise be available to the recipient, and that
this is contrary to Article 14(c) of the SCM Agreement.
6. Canada respectfully disagrees with Brazil. The mere existence of the GSM 102 program is
not a per se benefit under Article 14(c). Article 14(c) provides that a loan guarantee by a government

does not constitute a benefit unless there is a diffe rence between the amount the recipient would pay
on a comparable commercial loan obtained on the market and the amount it pays to the government.
The benefit, in such cases, is th e difference between those two amounts adjusted for any difference in
fees. Brazil may well be correct that GSM 102 confers a benefit within the meaning of Article 1.1(b)
of the SCM Agreement. However, in accordance with Article 14(c), demonstrating the existence of
this benefit expressly requires a comparison with the market.
7. Brazil argues that the GSM 102 program is d esigned so that the guar antees are provided only
in circumstances in which credit would not otherwise be available, that is, where there is no
comparable commercial loan. Canada submits that in respect of most financial instruments, it is
possible to find a comparable commercial pricing mechanism. In the event that a commercial
comparison or evidence of a commercial comparison cannot be found, one can construct a market
proxy. Either way, under Article 14(c), one must make a commercial comparison, whether
constructed or otherwise.
IV. ILLUSTRATIVE LIST OF EXPORT SUBSIDIES
8. Third, and lastly, Canada submits that item (j ) of the Illustrative List contained in Annex I to
the SCM Agreement does not allow for an a contrario interpretation.
9. The United States argues that GSM 102 is not inconsistent with Article 3 of the
SCM Agreement because the program charges premium rates that are more than adequate to cover the
long-term operating costs and losses of the program. As such, the United States argues that GSM 102
is not inconsistent with item (j), and because none of the other items in the Illustrative List are
applicable to it, GSM 102 is not an export subsidy prohibited by Article 3.
10. Article 3.1(a) provides that subsidies c ontingent on export performance, including those
illustrated in Annex I, are prohibited. Canada has consistently argued, and at least two panels have
agreed, that footnote 5 in the SCM Agreement excludes the possibility of implied exceptions to the
prohibition on export subsidies. The panels in Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada) and in Korea
– Vessels, found that, and I quote, "[i]n its ordinary mean ing, footnote 5 relates to situations where a
measure is referred to as not constituting an export subsidy."
1 To this end, those panels considered
whether the item at issue of the Illustrative List contained one of two things: any affirmative
statement that a measure is not an export subsid y or a statement that a measure not satisfying the
conditions of that paragraph is not prohibited. The panel in Korea –Vessels found that item (j) did not
contain such statements, but rather describes certain circumstances in which particular programs do
constitute export subsidies. That panel found that item (j) fell outside the scope of footnote 5.
11. The panel in Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada) came to a similar conclusion from the
text of Article 3.1(a) itself. The panel found th at Annex I contains examples of prohibited export
subsidies, and does not purport to be an exhaustive list. The panel found it "highly likely" that there
are prohibited export subsidies within the meaning of Article 3.1(a) that do not fall within the scope of
Annex I.2
12. Thus, even if, as the United States asserts, th e fees charged under GSM 102 were sufficient to
meet its long-term operating costs and losses, it woul d mean only that the program is not captured by

1 Brazil – Export Financing Programme for Aircraft: Recourse by Canada to Article 21.5 of the DSU ,
Report of the Panel, WT/DS46/RW, adopted 4 August 2000 [" Brazil – Aircraft (Article 21.5 – Canada) "],
para. 6.36. See also Korea – Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels , Report of the Panel,
WT/DS273, adopted 7 March 2005, para. 7.195.

item (j) of the Illustrative List. It would not mean that GSM 102 is not a prohibited export subsidy.
Quite apart from item (j), GSM 102 could still be a prohibited export subsidy pursuant to Article 3 of
the SCM Agreement.
13. This concludes Canada's statement. I would like to again thank the panel for the opportunity
to present Canada's views.

ANNEX C-8

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF CHAD

28 February 2007

I. INTRODUCTION
1. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Panel,

2. Chad appreciates the opportunity to present its vi ews to you in this dispute. In its written
submission of 5 January 2007, Chad set out its unde rstanding of some of the major legal issues that
arise in this dispute. I will therefore not repeat all that is contained in that submission. Rather, I will
take this opportunity to highlight some additional i ssues relevant to the resolution of this important
dispute.

II. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DSU TO LDCS

3. According to Article 3.2 of the DSU, security and predictability are the cornerstones of the
multilateral trading system. Article 3.2 further stresses the importance of prompt settlement of
situations in which benefits are being impaired and the maintenance of the proper balance between the
rights and obligations of Members.

4. These principles of the multilateral trading system, Mr. Chairman, together with the
prohibition against unilateral actions to resolve disp utes, found in Article 23 of the DSU, provide the
foundation for the WTO's rules-based dispute settlement system. This is intended to be a rules-based
system in which might does not trump right, in wh ich the law is applied regardless of the economic
strength of the parties to a dispute, and in which th e smallest actors in intern ational trade can ask for
respect of the rule of law and its principles and prevail.

5. Chad's belief in this system motivated it to become a third party when Brazil requested a
panel in the original dispute, and it is this same belief that motivates Chad's participation in these
proceedings. By this action, Chad has become one of only a handful of least-developed countries that
have participated in a WTO dispute settlement proceeding since the establishment of the WTO
in 1995.

6. Chad participated particularly because it is a least-developed country, and because there are
not alternative means for its interests and concerns to be taken into account.

7. Mr. chairman, it is the weakest Members of th e WTO that are most dependent on the rule of
law in multilateral trade relations. Lacking political or market power, least- developed countries have
no other recourse that to ask for respect of the rule of law. As one WTO Member stated in urging a
speedy and successful conclusion to the Uruguay Round:

The least-developed countries, being the w eakest and most vulnerable members of
the international community, need the ru le of law most and are the strongest
advocates of multilateralism. ...1
8. Without the WTO's dispute settlement system to ensure that rules are obeyed and obligations
upheld, therefore, the weak would be at the mercy of the powerful who would be left free to pursue
their own individual interest. As former WTO Di rector-General Moore cogently underlined, the
multilateral system "opens up the privileged pos itions of the powerful to transparency and
competition".2

9. Rules-based multilateralism demands that WTO Members found to be in violation of their
obligations take steps to address those violations. As Brazil has demonstrated, the United States has
either taken no steps to implement the rulings and recommendations of the DSB in the original
dispute, or where it has taken such steps, it has not fully addressed the adverse effects that continue to
affect the farmers of Brazil, Chad, and other African countries.

10. This Panel must therefore send a clear message to the WTO Membership regarding the
effectiveness of the dispute settlement system by re quiring that the United States, to the extent that it
has failed to implement the recommendations and ru lings of the DSB, abide by the principles of the
rules-based system; principles which, I would ad d, the United States has repeatedly claimed to
endorse.

III. THE IMPORTANCE OF COTTON TO CHAD

11. Chad participated in the original dispute in this case, and continues to participate in these
proceedings, because of the critical importance of the cotton sector to Chad's economy and the
ongoing damage to that sector caused by US subsidies.

12. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world. The United Nations Development
Programme's Human Development Report of 2005 ranks Chad as the 173
rd out of 177 countries based
on human development indicators that include like expectancy at birth, the infant mortality rate, and
the maternal mortality ratio.

13. It is precisely because of this poverty that Chad is so seriously affected by the US subsidies.
The cotton sector in Chad affects approximately 3 million people, out of a to tal population of about
8.1 million. Cotton exports are the country's th ird largest export, representing 60 per cent of all
non-oil export earnings. Cotton is, therefore, one of Chad's main sources of income, sustains the
livelihood of a large portion of its population, a nd contributes not only to economic development but
also to social development. Thus, cotton is a central element in the government's drive towards
modernisation, diversification, a nd the financing of social activities and other needs of Chad's rural
citizens.

14. In the Report " Finding the Moral Fibre: Why reform is urgently needed for a fair cotton
trade", Oxfam concludes the US cotton subsidies have an impact "not simply on balance of payments
or debt service."
3 Oxfam states that US cotton subsidies "cause poverty, and Western African farmers

1 Statement by Dr. M Isaac Talukdar of Bangladesh to the Forty-Seventh Session of the GATT
CONTRACTING PARTIES, SR.47/ST/4, 20 December 1991.
2 Michael Moore, "Promoting openness, fairness and pr edictability in international trade for the benefit
of humanity", speech delivered to the Inter-Parliamentary Union on 8 June 2001, available at
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/spmm_e/spmm64_e.htm.
3 Oxfam Briefing Paper Number 69, 18 October 2004, page 2.

are particularly vulnerable." It is for this reason th at Chad welcomed the findings of the Panel in this
case. The rulings and recommendations of the Panel – if they had been im plemented – would have
improved the lot of the many poor who depend on cotton production and export.

15. The development and multilateral agencies that ha ve examined this issue have all come to the
same conclusion. Respected economic experts from UNDP, the International Cotton Advisory
Committee, the World Bank and Oxfam have establis hed the source of the problems facing African
cotton farmers are the trade-distorting agricultural subsidies that continue to depress world cotton
prices. They have also concluded that the pri ce prospects for cotton and consequently the export
shares of low-cost producers, including many African countries, could be improved considerably if
developed countries substantially reduced or eliminated support.

16. It is therefore imperative that the cotton fa rmers of Chad reap the benefits of a prompt
implementation of the DSB's rulings and recommendati ons in this dispute. Proper compliance would
not only stabilise and increase the incomes of Chad 's cotton farmers but also develop the economy of
Chad as a whole.

IV. THE IMPORTANCE OF COTTON TO THE WEST AFRICAN REGION

17. Chad is not the only West African country that has suffered the effects of the US subsidies.
The proper implementation of the DSB's recommenda tions and rulings is of importance to cotton-
producing West African countries, which are some of the most vulnerable economies in the world.

18. The Oxfam report to which I referred above concludes: "every season poor cotton farmers
face reduced incomes. Each year, developing co untries which export cotton suffer declining balance
of payments. The central issue is US cotton subsidies."
4

19. West and Central African cotton producers ar e among the lowest-cost producers of the crop in
the world. Full implementation by the United Stat es of the DSB's recommendations and rulings in
this case would have very significant benefits fo r Chad and the other Sub-Saharan African cotton-
producing countries. A recent World Bank project study titled "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A
Tale of Two Issues" 5 specifically estimates what is at stake in terms of cotton production, trade, and
economic welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study finds that the removal of all cotton subsidies and
import tariffs would boost global ec onomic welfare by $283 million per year and would raise the
price of cotton in international markets by almost 13 per cent.

20. Chad, together with Benin, Burkina Faso a nd Mali, is a co-sponsor of the sectoral initiative
for cotton which encourages WTO Members to address cotton "ambitiously, expeditiously and
specifically" with a view to achieving more am bitious reductions of trade-distorting domestic
subsidies for cotton production. This initiative cove rs not only the subsidies of the United States but
also those of other Members of the WTO and it wa s made explicitly without prejudice to actions of
the Dispute Settlement Body. Nevertheless, it can be taken by this Panel as a further indication of the
importance that Chad and the other sponsors of th e initiative attach to the resolution of the cotton
subsidy issue.

21. The commitment made by Members in the context of negotiations should not, however,
detract from the importance of this dispute settlement process. The negotiating track is one aspect of
the WTO system, the dispute settlement system another. No Member should be put in the position of

4 Ibid.
5 Kym Anderson and Ernesto Valenzuela, "WTO's D oha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues",
Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington DC, February 2006.

negotiating afresh an outcome that has already b een prescribed multilaterally by the Members acting
through the Dispute Settlement Body. Chad ask s that it benefit from the enforcement of the
negotiated rules governing subsidi es and, equally, that it be allowed to gain more from an
international market without subsidies and therefore subject to true competition.

22. Chad therefore requests the Panel to ensure , through a careful review of the evidence and
rigorous application of the law, that the relevant WTO rules and disciplines are fully applied to the
cotton sector so that a fair and market-oriented system can prevail.
23. To quote H.E. Blaise Compaoré, President of Burkina Faso, "our countries are not asking for
charity, neither are we requesting preferential treatment or additional aid. We solely demand that, in
conformity with WTO basic principles, the free mark et rule be applied. Our producers are ready to
face competition on the world cotton market – under the condition that it is not distorted by
subsidies."
6

V. ARTICLE 24 OF THE DSU

24. Article 24 of the DSU stipulates that: "[a]t a ll stages of the determination of the causes of a
dispute, and of dispute settlement procedures invo lving a least-developed country Member, particular
consideration shall be given to the special situa tion of least-developed country Members". Chad's
reliance on its cotton industry to ge nerate exports and fight poverty c onstitutes a special situation of a
least-developed country Member within the meaning of Article 24. Chad requests the Panel to give
full effect to this provision in its determination of the causes of this dispute and to indicate in its report
how it has done so.

25. In Chad's view, Brazil has produced compelli ng arguments and evidence to show that the US
price-contingent subsidy programs supporting upl and cotton under the FSRI Act have not been
withdrawn or changed in any significant way. Br azil has also shown that overproduction and excess
exports, along with significantly suppressed world ma rket prices for upland cotton, have continued
following the adoption of the reports of the original panel and the Appellate Body in this dispute. As
explained above, Chad's own experience confirms the evidence submitted by Brazil.

26. This case concerns egregious, WTO-inconsis tent measures taken by a developed country
WTO Member that continue to cause serious harm to an important subsistence farming sector in the
economies of some of the very least-developed countries in the world. The United Nations
Development Programme's Human Development Repor t concluded that in 2005, "the 20,000 cotton
farmers in the United States will receive government payments in 2005 equivalent to the market value
of the crop and more than US aid in Sub-Saharan Africa."
7

27. Chad considers that Article 24 of the DS U imposes a duty on the panel that goes beyond a
procedural requirement to consider all the views presented to it (which the Panel is in any event
required to do under Article 11 of the DSU), by re quiring panels to take into account the special
situation of least-developed countries when examining substantive issues. Chad believes that, if the
Panel were to ignore and be silent on Article 24 of the DSU in this extreme situation, it would fail to
carry out the obligations that this provision clearly assigns to it.

6 Address to the Trade Negotiations Committee, 10 June 2003, www.wto.org.
7 UNDP, Human Development Report for 2005, page 132.

VI. CONCLUSION

28. Mr. Chairman, Members of the Panel, it is of critical importance to Chad and other African
cotton-producing countries and, indeed, to the multilateral trading system as a whole, that this
compliance Panel uphold the rule of law by ensu ring that the multilateral rules governing the
provision of subsidies are properly applied and followed in this case.

29. In this regard, Chad recalls the statement of the Sutherland Report that:

The position of the poorest Members of the WTO, the least developed countries, ...
has been and should be an issue of increasing concern. If they do not receive real
benefit from membership there can be little point in their remaining part of the
organization and the moral case for the WTO as a source of good is diminished.
8
30. In the present case, Chad recalls that Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement provides that "the
Member granting or maintaining such subsidy shal l take appropriate steps to remove the adverse
effects or shall withdraw the subsidy." Article 7. 8 therefore requires that the United States take active
steps and impose affirmative measures to eliminat e adverse effects or withdraw subsidies. The
United States cannot comply with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB simply by letting time
pass and the adverse effects dissipate.

31. Chad also recalls that the panel stated clearly that " the United States is obliged to take action
concerning its present statutory and regulatory framework as a result of our 'present' serious
prejudice finding.'"
9 Accordingly, to conform with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB, the
United States must not only stop the challenged pa yments, but also change its legislative and
regulatory system.

32. Accordingly, the Panel should carefully and stringently review the measures taken by the
United States and determine that the United States has not properly implemented the
recommendations and rulings of the DSB.

33. Chad trusts that these views will assist the Pa nel in its consideration of these issues. Chad
will be happy to respond to any questions the Panel may have.

34. Again, we thank you for this opportunity to present our views.

 8 The Future of the WTO – Addressing Institutional Challenges in the New Millennium , Report by the
Consultative Board to the Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi, 2004, paragraph 40.
9 Panel Report, paragraph 7.1501 (original footnote omitted) (emphasis added).

ANNEX C-9

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF THE
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

28 February 2007

1. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Panel. On 5 January 2007, China provided its
third party submission to you on this case. Today, I would like to highlight the major points on two
issues in China's submission: (1) whether the item (j) of the Illustrative List of the SCM Agreement
constitutes the complete basis for the analysis of GSM-102; (2) whether the ML/CCP payment
programs are outside the scope of this proceeding.
2. Firstly, regarding item (j) issue, Chin a believes that the panel's finding in Korea – Measures
Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels has provided a useful guidance. The Korea – Commercial
Vessels panel points out that Item (j) merely describes certain circumstances in which particular
programs constitute export subsidies; and Item (j) simply does not address export guarantee programs
that do cover their long-term operating costs and losses. Therefore, item (j) does not provide a basis
on which to find that measures do not constitute prohibited export subsidies.
3. In other words, item (j) is only a shortcut to determine that an export credit guarantee
constitutes an export subsidy when the guarantee does not cover its long-term operating costs and
losses. However, it is not a defense clause. Na mely, when fees collected for a credit guarantee do
cover long-term operating costs and losses for the guarantee, it is still possible that this credit
guarantee constitutes an export subsidy, and the pane l still needs to examine whether the measure at
issue is consistent with Article 1 and 3 of the SC M Agreement or not. In China's view, the definition
of export subsides in the meaning of Article 1 an d 3 of the SCM Agreement covers a scope much
broader than that of item (j) of the Illu strative List. The complainant may raise a prima facie case of
export subsidy either by claiming an item (j) viol ation or an Article 1 and 3 violation of the
SCM Agreement. Nevertheless, non-existence of the Illustrative List violation does not mean that it
also consistent with obligations under Article 1 and 3 of the SCM Agreement.
4. Thus, China considers that the US's approach with regard to item (j) is incomplete, and
inconsistent with the provisions in the SCM Agreement.
5. Secondly, regarding ML/CCP payment issue, China cannot endorse the US's arguments. On
the one hand, contrary to what the US asserted in its Written Submission, the DSB did make rulings
and recommendations in respect to ML/CCP programs in many occasions. For examples, the Original
Panel found that: (1) legislative and regulatory provisions of ML/CCP were measures subject to
rulings and findings; (2) a textual analysis of the statutes supported that such subsidy programs were
'specific', and (3) ML/CCP payments, among others, were directly linked to world prices for upland
cotton, and the structure, design and operation of these measures constituted evidence supporting a
causal link with significant price suppression. In short, the Original Panel did make finding on the
ML/CCP programs.
6. In addition, the Original Panel also found that in light of its findings with regard to present
serious prejudice, it did not believe that it was necessary to address Brazil's "threat" claim and
"per se" claims relating to these measures . It is clear that the Original Panel assumed the statutory
and regulatory framework of the US mandatory pri ce-contingent subsidy programs should be changed
and the Panel therefore refrained itself from making further elaboration in these regards.

7. As to the US's claim that Brazil may not make claims against unchanged measures, China
notes that the Original Panel found that the effect of the mandatory price-contingent subsidies was
significant price suppression in the same world mark et and gave rise to serious prejudice to the
interests of Brazil. The recommendations a nd rulings of the DSB accordingly obliged the
United States to remove the adverse effects caused by these subsidies, or to withdraw these subsidies.
8. Furthermore, the terms of reference of a compliance panel is not limited to what the
responding party claims to be the measures taken to comply. In China's view, since this Compliance
Panel is requested to examine whether the measures ta ken by the United States are consistent with the
covered agreement, it is legitimate for the Complian ce Panel to examine whether or not the remaining
two subsidies (ML/CCP programs) are still causing serious prejudice.
9. This concludes China's oral statement a nd I thank you very much for your attention,
Mr. Chairman and distinguished Members of the Panel.

Mr. Chairman, distinguished Members of the Panel.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. The European Communities makes this oral stat ement because of its systemic interest in the
correct interpretation of the SCM Agreement , the GATT 1994 and the DSU. The European
Communities addresses the following issues:

 • Panel composition;
 • The US requests for preliminary rulings concerning:
 - Export credit guarantees for pig meat and poultry meat under the GSM 102
programme;
 - The marketing loan programme and the counter-cyclical payment
programme;
 - Compliance in past periods;
 • Certain aspects of the export contingent subsidies claims; and
 • Certain aspects of the actionable subsidies claims.

II. PANEL COMPOSITION

2. The European Communities again most respectfu lly urges the Panel in the strongest terms to
exercise its inherent jurisdiction under the HFCS case law, and rule on the propriety of its own
composition, following the Australia Automotive Leather II precedent. 1 This is all the more
imperative in the present circumstances because of the obvious and acutely important systemic
interest; and the entirely understandable reticence of either Party to expressly intervene at length.

3. The DSU expressly sets out what the "functions of panels" are; and that expressly includes
"to assist the DSB in discharging its responsibiliti es under th[e DSU] and the covered agreements".
2
Those DSB responsibilities clearly include ensuring that panels are properly composed. Article 2(1)
of the DSU states expressly that the DSB is establis hed "to administer the[] rules and procedures" set
out in the DSU, and that necessarily includes Article 8(3) of the DSU, which relates to panel
composition.

4. Furthermore, Article 11 of the DSU requires this Panel to " assist the DSB in making the
recommendations or in giving the rulings provide d for in the covered agreements". The DSB cannot
possibly have addressed the question of composition at the time of panel request and establishment,
since the former post-dates the latter. Therefore, the only way in which this Panel can fulfil its
obligation to assist the DSB in relation to this matter is to deal with it in its report.

III. US REQUEST FOR PRELIMINARY RULINGS

A. E
XPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES FOR PIG ME AT AND POULTRY MEAT UNDER THE GSM 102
PROGRAMME

5. The United States request for a preliminary ruling raises a problem being discussed in DSU
proceedings with increasing frequency
3: what is the relationship between the measure at issue (and
elements of it) in an original panel; and the m easure taken to comply (and elements of it) in a

1 EC Third Party Written Submission, paras. 6 to 30.
2 DSU, Article 11.
3 See, for a recent example, Panel Report, Chile – Agricultural Products (Price Band) (Article 21.5 -
Argentina), paras. 7.121 to 7.162.

compliance panel. The context of this legal problem includes: 1) the fact that measures at issue may
be complex and have many different elements, so me of which are more closely interrelated or
interdependent than others; 2) the fact that measu res at issue may be attack ed "as such" (or constitute
"programmes" under the SCM Agreement) or "as applied" 3) that pa nel's may focus on resolving the
dispute, and thus exercise judicial economy, either w ith respect to certain claims, or with respect to
certain elements of a measure, and that successful appeal of the exercise of judicial economy may be
difficult4; 4) the principle of res judicata, according to which once a matter is decided it should not
be re-litigated; 5) the fact that a compliance pane l may be followed by immediate retaliation; and
6) that the Appellate Body has no legal basis to "remand" matters to the original panel for re-
consideration.

6. The European Communities agrees with the Un ited States that the case law to-date does not
yet regulate all aspects of this problem. Sp ecifically, the existing case law does not resolve the
question of how the scope of a compliance panel s hould be determined in circumstances where the
exercise of "false" judicial economy is successfully appealed and/or the Appellate Body is unable to
complete the analysis.5 However, the European Communities does not consider that it is by reference
to such matters that the problem before you is to be resolved. Rather, it appears to the European
Communities that the important issue is the nexus or the degree of interrelatedness or interdependence
between different elements of the measure.

7. It appears to the European Communities that there are essentially two competing models:
"the measure model" (supported by Brazil in this case), which tends to fix the parameters of the
compliance panel by reference to the original meas ure at issue – understanding the measure taken to
comply accordingly; and the "element of the measu re model" (supported by the United States in this
case), which tends to fix the parameters of the compliance panel by reference to the elements of the
original measure at issue in respect of which findings were made by the original panel, and understand
the "measure taken to comply" accord ingly. One can find examples of both types of approach in the
case law.
6

8. It appears to the European Communities that neither model may provide a satisfactory method
for dealing with all cases.

9. For example, the measure model would app ear unsatisfactory in cases involving "as such"
claims against Member's legislation implementing the WTO Agreements by way of municipal law
measures intended to have general and prospective application. These might typically consist of
hundreds of articles (or elements). Given the seri ousness of "as such" claims, to accept that an
entirely new article (or element) could be raised in a compliance panel would appear to be
unsatisfactory. In fact, in such cases, typically, it is a particular provision or provisions, and not the
piece of legislation as a whole, that is described as the "measure at issue".

10. On the other hand, taken to its logical conc lusion, it is not clear where the element of the
measure model would stop in its deconstruction or at omisation of a measure at issue. In theory, one
could deconstruct a measure at issue into one set of legal elements, one set of factual elements, one set
of evidence, and (in some cases) into one set of findings concerning the legal characterisation of facts;
and there is no limit in theory to the number of "ele ments" within each set. It seems to the European

4 See, for a recent example, Appellate Body Report, US-Zeroing, paras. 225 and 250 (applying the
standard reasoning that additional findings are unnecessary to resolve the dispute).
5 US First Written Submission, paras. 24 to 30; Brazil's Comments On US Request for Preliminary
Rulings, paras. 2 to 15; US Rebuttal, paras. 10 to 15.
6 See, for example, Panel Report, Japan – Apples (Article 21.5 United States) , paras. 8.28 to 8.30,
where, in effect, the United States argued successfully for the "measure model".

Communities that such an approach might encourag e litigants to similarly atomise their claims and
arguments, provoking more exercise of judicial ec onomy, appeals from which may not be welcomed
by the Appellate Body. It might also encourage litig ants to request in parallel and in the alternative
and in relation to the same matter a compliance panel and a new original panel (eventually with the
same panellists) in order to ensu re that, whichever model prevails, they do not suffer unnecessary
procedural delay – something that would only add needless complexity to already complex legal
proceedings.

11. The question therefore poses itself, with particular reference to the facts of this case: are there
any objective criteria that can be articulated for de termining what approach should be applied? In
order to answer that question, in the opinion of the European Communities, the Panel should examine
the original measure at issue and the "measure taken to comply", and, with particular reference to the
"elements of the measure" that the United States ar gues are outside the Panel' s terms of reference,
enquire into the extent to which these are inter related or inter dependent with measures or "elements
of measures" that the United States accepts are within the Panel's terms of reference.
7

12. It appears to the European Communities that, at first sight, the question of whether or not US
export credit guarantees under the GSM 102 programme to pig meat and poultry meat circumvent US
commitments for those scheduled products, and are in consistent with Articles 3.1(a) and 3(2) of the
SCM Agreement , is not necessarily inter dependent with and arguably not even necessarily
interrelated with the same question regarding, particularly, upland cotton.

13. However, it also appears to the European Co mmunities that there are other factors that merit
careful consideration. For example:

• One particular feature of the SCM Agreement is that several of its provisions refer to
subsidy "programmes", lending support to th e view that a subsidy programme can be
a "measure at issue", and further lending support to the view that, by its own terms ,
such a programme may exhibit a degree of interrelatedness or interdependence
between its terms and/or its instances of application.
8

• The United States appears to have admitted that the GSM 102 programme was and is
a "programme" within the meaning of the SCM Agreement.9

• The original panel consistently described the GSM 102 programme as a "measure at
issue", and the United States does not appear to have argued that it in fact consisted of
a number of different measures at issue.10

• In the original panel Brazil attacked the GSM 102 programme both "as such" and "as
applied", although the original panel did not consider this distinction to be a
determinative one. 11 There is authority for the view that a compliance panel should
consider together both a measure and its application.12

7 Appellate Body Report, US-Softwood Lumber IV (Article 21.5 – Canada) (DS257), para. 79 "… the
Panel employed a nexus-based test … which accords with our own interpretation of Article 21.5".
8 See final bullet point.
9 Panel Report, US-Upland Cotton, para. 7.811.
10 Panel Report, US-Upland Cotton, para. 7.242.
11 Panel Report, US-Upland Cotton, para. 7.763.
12 Panel Report, US-Shrimp (Article 21.5 – Malaysia), para. 87.

• In the compliance Panel Brazil has again attacked per se the programme, that is, the
revised fee schedules for export cred it guarantees issued under the GSM 102
programme.13
• Finally, and significantly, as far as the European Communities can ascertain, the US
has elected to revise the fee schedules for export credit guarantees issued under the
GSM 102 generally14, that is, also for pig meat and poultry meat. 15 In this respect the
present case is similar to past cases in which the fact that measures have been
changed, suggesting the requisite degree of in terrelatedness or interdependence, has
tended to bring them within the scope of a compliance panel.
16

14. The European Communities interest in this matter being systemic, we do not venture a final
view on whether or not the GSM 102 programme as it re lates to pig meat and poultry meat is or is not
within the Panel's terms of refere nce; but we do respectfully invite the Panel to take the foregoing
observations into consideration when reaching its findings on this point.

B. T
HE MARKETING LOAN PROGRAMME AND THE COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENT PROGRAMME

15. The European Communities ag rees with the United States
17 that there is a meaningful
distinction between an "as such" claim and an "as applied" claim, although, like most distinctions, it is
not an absolute one. 18 An "as such" claim operates against a normative measure at a higher level of
abstraction, intended to be of general and prospec tive application (such as legislation). The European
Communities views on the so-called mandatory/discretionary distinction19 do not suggest otherwise.

16. Furthermore, the European Comm unities agrees with the United States
20 that there is a
distinction between a subsidy programme within the meaning of the SCM Agreement (which may be a
measure at issue) and instances of a subsidy unde r such programme (each of which may also be a
measure at issue). The former may be said to operate at a higher level of abstraction than the latter.

17. The European Communities also agrees with the United States that an actionable subsidies
claim under Part III of the SCM Agreement refers to a "subsidy" within the meaning of paragraphs 1
and 2 of Article 1, which may be either a programme; or instances of the application of a programme;
or both. These measures should not normally be conflated.
21

18. The European Communities also agrees with the United States that a complaining Member
must be especially diligent in setting out "as such" claims in panel requests and first written

13 Brazil's First Written Submission, para. 333, second bullet point and footnote 510.
14 See first bullet point.
15 Brazil's First Written Submission, para. 333, second bullet point and footnote 510; Exhibit Bra-505.
16 For example, in Canada – Aircraft , Canada changed the terms of the TPC programme (which was
not an original measure at issue), and did not subsequently contest that it was a measure taken to comply. In
Australia – Automotive Leather II , Australia changed the 1997 loan (originally found not to be an export
subsidy) into a 1999 loan, which the compliance panel found to be within its terms of reference. In EC –
Bananas III (Article 21.5 – Ecuador), the EC changed its legislation, which was considered, in its entirety, to be
within the compliance panel's terms of reference.
17 US Rebuttal, paras. 22 to 24.
18 For example, an original anti-dumping duty measure is often said to be attacked at the "as applied"
level, although it is likely to be of general (residual duty per country) and prospective application.
19 EC Third Party Written Submission, paras. 64 to 69; US Rebuttal, footnote 31.
20 US Rebuttal, paras. 20 to 21.
21 US Rebuttal, para. 25.

submissions; and that as long as either the existence or the precise content of the supposed measure is
not demonstrated to a high threshold and with particular rigour, any such claims must be dismissed.
22

19. The European Communities does see a differe nce between the type of programme, often
fiscal, in which entitlement to payment is conditi onal only upon the fulfilment of certain essentially
factual requirements, essentially in the hands of th e recipient; and the type of programme in which
application in any given instance still depends on considerations (some times referred to as
"discretion") that are in the hands of the granting au thority. In the latter case, the distinction between
the programme and an instance of its application must be rigorously maintained. 23 In the former case
the distinction may be less clear, and there ma y be a degree of nexus or interrelatedness or
interdependence between the (for example, fiscal) programme and payments under it, such as might
justify their treatment as indivisible for the purposes of a compliance panel.

20. The European Communities agrees with Brazil th at, if a panel's adverse effects finding relates
to a bundle of subsidies, the entire bundle will normally fa ll within the scope of a compliance panel.
However, the European Communiti es agrees with the United States that this observation does not, in
itself, resolve the question of whether the measu res taken to comply relate only to the payments, or
also the programmes themselves.

21. That said, the European Communities agrees with Brazil 24 that the fact that the United States
implemented by withdrawing the Step 2 programme lends very considerable support to the view that
there was at least a sufficient nexus between the Step 2 payments and the Step 2 programme. The
Parties also agree that the original panel assessed a bundle of payments under the three different
programmes – that is that the panel's adverse effects assessment assumed a nexus between the
payments under the three different pr ogrammes. If there is sufficient nexus between payments and
programme for one programme; and if there is sufficient nexus between all payments; this in turn
suggests a sufficient nexus between all three programmes, such that the whole new bundle can and
should be treated as indivisible for the purposes of this compliance panel.

22. The European Communities disagrees with the Un ited States that the fact that something has
not changed necessarily means that it is outside the scope of a compliance panel.
25 That depends on
its relationship with what the Parties agree is with in the scope of the compliance panel. And in any
event Article 21.5 disputes may also relate to the question of whether or not a required measure taken
to comply "exists".

23. Finally, and significantly, the European Communities observe s that there is support in the
case law for the view that claims of present serious prejudice and threat of serious prejudice are
closely interrelated, such that a th reat claim in an original panel ma y inevitably give rise to a claim of
present serious prejudice in a compliance panel. It is not in dispute that Brazil's threat claims in the
original panel were also made against the programmes.
26

24. The European Communities interest in this matter being systemic, we do not venture a final
view on whether or not the marketing loan progr amme and the counter-cyclical payment programme
are or are not within the Panel's terms of reference; but we do respectfully invite the Panel to take the
foregoing observations into consideration when reaching its findings on this point.

22 US Rebuttal, para. 41.
23 As in the Brazil – Aircraft case, cited in US Rebuttal, paras. 51 to 52.
24 Brazil's Submission Regarding the US Request for Preliminary Rulings, paras. 16 to 28.
26 Brazil's Submission Regarding the US Request for Preliminary Rulings, paras. 63 to 69.

C. C OMPLIANCE IN PAST PERIODS

25. Paragraph 8.3(d) of the original panel report, as adopted by the DSB, contains a
"recommendation or ruling" within the meaning of Ar ticle 21.5. Furthermore, one element of that
"recommendation or ruling" was that the United States take appropriate steps to remove the adverse
effects or withdraw the subsidy; and (by necessary implication) that should the United States fail to
do so within six months from the date on which the DSB adopted the panel or Appellate Body Report,
the consequences described in Article 7.9 of the SCM Agreement would result. In the opinion of the
European Communities, it may reasonably be inferre d from paragraph 8.3(d) of the original panel
report and Articles 7.8 and 7.9 of the SCM Agreement that the United States was subject to a
"recommendation or ruling" within the meaning of Article 21.5 that it take appropriate steps to
remove the adverse effects or withdraw the subsidy at the latest within that six month period of time.

26. The Parties agree that the United States omitted to take a "measure taken to comply" during
the period identified by Brazil. It follows th at, during the period identified by Brazil, the
United States did not comply with the "recommendations and rulings" of the DSB.

27. The United States argues that this situation is not within the scope of Article 21.5 because the
Parties agree that no measure taken to comply existed duri ng that period of time (and there is thus no
"disagreement"); and that there could be no "di sagreement" as to consistency, because there was no
measure taken to comply.
27
28. The European Communities disag rees. The United States overlooks the fact that any act or
omission may be a measure for the purposes of dispute settlement. 28 It follows that, within the terms
of Article 21.5 of the DSU, Brazil considers that the United States omission (in this context, the
measure taken to comply within the meaning of Article 21.5) was incons istent with a covered
agreement, including Articles 7.8 and 7.9 of the SCM Agreement . This interpreta tion is consistent
with, and indeed necessitated by, the view that , in some circumstances, inaction may be an
appropriate method of implementation.29

29. The European Communities can find nothing a dditional in the terms of Article 21.5 that
would limit its temporal application in the manner advo cated by the United States. On the contrary, it
seems to the European Communities th at an integral part of a measure, apart from, for example, its
material and territorial scope, is its temporal scope; and the European Communities does not see how
this latter element could be artificially divorced from the whole. Apart from the fact that a non-
compliance finding opens the way for retaliation, whether or not Brazil's request would ever be
capable of having any practical utility is a different matter that this Panel does not need to address,
being essentially a matter for Brazil, exercising its judgement in good faith.
30 In some instances, for
example, it may be quite possible that such a finding could have implications for interested parties in
a municipal law jurisdiction.

IV. ALLEGED EXPORT CONTINGENT SUBSIDIES

30. The European Communities does not comment on whether or not the alleged subsidies
identified by Brazil are export contingent. Howe ver, the European Communities has four comments
which relate rather to the question of whether or not the measures in question involve subsidies.

27 US Rebuttal, paras. 64 to 71.
28 Appellate Body Report, US - Corrosion-Resistant Steel, para. 81.
29 EC Third Party Written Submission, para. 41.
30 Appellate Body Report, US - Corrosion-Resistant Steel, para. 89.

31. First, the European Communiti es agrees with the United States that Articles 14(a) to (c) of the
SCM Agreement presume that the types of financial contribution there enumerated do not confer a
benefit, unless the complaining party demonstrates otherwise.
31

32. Second, the European Communities agrees with the United States that neither the status of
bodies executing financial instruments, nor the term s on which they can borrow, determines whether
or not such financial instruments confer a benefit.
32
33. Third, the European Communities agrees with the United States that if estimated projected
data indicate a negative net present value, that indi cates profit, and there is accordingly no benefit and
no subsidy.33

34. Fourth, the European Communities agrees w ith the United States that entities such as the
International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Developm ent (EBRD) may provide commercial benchmarks
that can be used for the purposes of demonstrating the absence of any benefit and thus the absence of
subsidy.
34
35. The European Communities respectfully invit es the Panel to take these observations into
consideration when reaching its findings on the alleged export contingent subsidies.

V. ACTIONABLE SUBSIDIES

36. The European Communities agre es with the United States that the data that the Panel must
consider for the purposes of Brazil's claim of "present" serious prejudice would be the most recent
relevant data reasonably available, including, where possible, data for the 2006 marketing year (which
runs from 1 August 2006 to 31 July 2007). 35 Brazil agrees that the most recent data is relevant and
should be referenced by the Panel.36

37. The European Communities further agrees with the United States that any consideration of
data trends over time, in order not to be distorted, should be conducted in a meaningful way, that takes
into account known exogenous events, or circumst ances in which there were "entirely different
market conditions", whether in the past or in the immediate future.
37

38. The European Communities also agrees with the United States that where alleged subsidies
are extinguished or extracted by owners not operating in the relevant markets, then there is no basis
on which to find adverse effects, or for that matter a subsidy that continues to benefit the relevant
company or product.
38

39. The European Communities also agrees with the United States that, as long as the
complaining party has failed to demonstrate that the effects of the subsidies are significant, including

31 US Rebuttal, para. 79.
32 US Rebuttal, paras. 80 and 104.
33 US Rebuttal, paras. 84 and 87.
34 US Rebuttal, para. 154.
35 US First Written Submission, paras. 160 to 170; US Rebuttal, para. 182 and paras. 215 to 216:
"… the period relevant for these claims is the immediate present, not a historical period (regardless of how close
in time).".
36 Brazil's Rebuttal, para. 25.
37 US Rebuttal, para. 183.

with specific reference to the magnitude of the subsidy, then the a dverse effects claims should be
dismissed.39

40. The European Communities respectfully invit es the Panel to take these observations into
consideration when reaching its findings on the actionable subsidies claims.
 Mr. Chairman, distinguished Members of the Panel, the European Communities thanks you
for your kind and patient attention.

ANNEX C-11

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF INDIA

28 February 2007

Mr. Chairman and Distinguished Members of the Panel,
1. India thanks you for having provided us an o pportunity to present our views as a third party in
this dispute on the implementation measures by the United States. As a major cotton producing
country, with production dominated by low-income, resource poor, subsistence farmers, India has a
major substantive interest in these proceedings. As a developing country India has a strong interest in
a stable and competitive world market in cotton, unencumbered by trade and production distorting
subsidies provided by a few countries. India shares the interests of Brazil and other like-minded
parties to this dispute.
2. India fully agrees with Brazil, and those othe r third parties who have pointed out that the
United States has failed to implement the recomm endations and rulings of the Dispute Settlement
Body in the original proceedings. We also agree wi th the contention that the United States continues
to provide subsidies that either cause serious prej udice or threaten to cause serious prejudice, within
the meaning of Articles 5 and 6 of the Agreem ent on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures
(SCM Agreement) and the relevant provisions of the GATT 1994.
3. India proposes to focus on the following two issues:
(i) The implementation with respect to Ma rketing Loan and Counter-Cyclical Payment
(CCP) programmes by the United States; and
(ii) Export credit guarantee (ECG) programme s maintained by th e Commodity Credit
Corporation (CCC) of the United States.
4. As part of its implementation of the DS B recommendations on serious prejudice claims
arising from the original proceedings, the United Stat es claims to have repealed the Step 2 payment
programme for upland cotton with effect from 1 August 2006, which was one of the programmes
found by the original panel to be causing serious prejudice. The United States has argued that since
Brazil had distinguished between claims against programmes per se and claims against specific
payments under the programmes, the US Marketing Lo an and Counter-Cyclical Payment programmes
were not subject either to a finding of WT O inconsistency or any DSB recommendations.
Accordingly, since these programmes have not ch anged in response to DSB recommendations and
rulings or otherwise, the United States has request ed this Panel to find that these measures are not
within the scope of the present proceedings.
5. India recalls that, as upheld by the Appe llate Body, the original panel found several
mandatory price-contingent subsidy programmes of the United States, including the Marketing Loan
and Counter-Cyclical Payment programmes, to be inconsistent with the obligations of the
United States under Articles 5 and 6 of SCM Agreement. In view of the fact that the original panel
considered the effect of these programmes separate ly and jointly, the United States cannot now argue
that these programmes are outside the scope of this proceeding. India considers that the original
panel examined carefully and separately the i ndividual nature, operation, magnitude, and price-
suppressing effect of these subsidies and found that the vast majority of the price suppression and
adverse effects were caused by the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programmes, rather

than the Step 2 payments. Therefore, the withdraw al of the Step 2 payments for upland cotton cannot
be said to have also removed the adverse effects of the Marketing Loan and CCP programmes.
6. Mr. Chairman, India also submits that the or iginal panel clearly described the measures at
issue as comprising the "legislative and regulatory provisions currently providing for the payment of
measures", including Marketing Loan and Counter-C yclical Payment programmes. The panel had
clearly considered that its findings regarding "presen t" serious prejudice applied not just to payments,
but also to the statutory and regulatory framework of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act,
2002 and its implementing regulations . Contrary to the arguments put forward by the United States,
the U.S. obligations at the implementation period were not circumscribed to "payments" made in a
period in the past. Therefore, an examination of the conformity of the legislative and regulatory
provisions, under which the mandatory, price-contin gent Marketing Loan and CCPs are made, with
the rulings and recommendations of the original pane l and Appellate Body, falls within the terms of
reference of this Panel. An interpretation that would endorse the U.S. arguments on this issue
would, in practice, render the whole Part III of the SCM Agreement ineffective. This is not an
interpretation supported by the principles and rules of treaty interpretation used in the WTO, and
would be of even more concern in light of the specificity of the remedies provided for in that
Agreement.
7. Mr. Chairman, with respect to the th ree export credit guarantee (ECG) programmes
maintained by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) of the United States – GSM 102, GSM 103
and SCGP – the Dispute Settlement Body recommended that the United States withdraw the subsidy
and otherwise bring itself into compliance with its obligations by the implementation deadline of
1 July 2005.
8. In India's view, in the absence of GSM 102 fees that take full account of all the risks the CCC
bears in a transaction, the measures taken by the Un ited States to comply with the DSB's ECG related
recommendations are not
 consistent with the obligations of the United States under the Agreement on
Agriculture and the SCM Agreement. In its subm ission, Brazil has demonstrated clearly that under
Article 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement, GSM 102 ECGs are financial contributions that confer
benefits, and that the subsidies are contingent in law on export performance. India also agrees with
Chad, who in their written submission has shown wh y, as a practical matter, only developed country
governments can effectively provide ECGs to promote their exports. India also believes that
purchases of goods backed by US ECGs benefit from the sovereign guarantee, thereby giving a
competitive advantage to US exporters. Therefore, Mr Chairman, India is of the view that the
GSM 102 programmes are still not in compliance with the export subsidy disciplines specified in
Articles 1.1 and 3.1(a) of the SCM Agreement and the Agreement on Agriculture.
 Thank you.

ANNEX C-12

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF JAPAN

28 February 2007

I. Introduction
1. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Panel, we are pleased to have this opportunity to appear
before you today to present the views of Japan as a thir d party in this case. Japan is participating as a
third party because of its systemic interest in th e proper functioning of the Agreement on Subsidies
and Countervailing Measures ("ASCM") and the Un derstanding on Rules and Procedures Governing
the Settlement of Disputes ("DSU"), in particular, the proper role of Article 21.5 compliance panels.
This Panel has an important opportunity to clarify that role. We would like to briefly address, in light
of the Written Submissions of Brazil and the United States ("U.S."), three issues concerning the role
of Article 21.5 compliance panels under the DSU and one issue regarding the proper interpretation of
the ASCM:
- Whether the use by the U.S. of the General Sales Manager ("GSM") 102 program to
support exports of pig and poultry meat is within the scope of the Panel;
- Whether the Marketing Loan Program ( "MLP") and the Counter-Cyclical Payment
Program ("CCP") are part of the U.S. "measure taken to comply" and, therefore, within
the scope of the Panel;
- Whether the Panel has the authority to ma ke findings with respect to the U.S. non-
compliance between 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006; and
- The proper standard for assessing "threat of serious prejudice" in the ASCM.
II. The GSM 102 Program for Pig and Poultry Meat Is Within the Scope of the Panel
2. In the original proceedings, the Appellate B ody reversed the original panel's finding that
Brazil had failed to demonstrate that the U. S. had applied GSM 102 in a manner that circumvented
export subsidy commitments with respect to pig and poultry meat, but concluded that there were
insufficient uncontested facts in the record to enable it to complete the legal analysis.
1 Based on this
fact, the U.S. asserts that Brazil's claim is outside the scope of this Panel. In Japan's view, this
assertion by the U.S. is not an appropriate interpretation of Article 21.5 of the DSU.
3. The Appellate Body's inability to complete the an alysis concerning a finding it has reversed is
similar to an original panel's exercise of judicial economy; both situations mean that there is no "final
resolution" with respect to the claim in questi on, and no reason to preclude its resolution in an
Article 21.5 proceeding.2 Thus, Japan submits that the recen t report of the Article 21.5 compliance
panel in U.S. – OCTG Sunset Reviews is dispositive:
The fact that a panel, in an original dis pute settlement proceeding, did not make findings
regarding certain issues relating to the investiga ting authorities' determination that were raised
and argued before the panel, can not preclude a compliance panel, in its assessment under

1 United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton, WT/DS267/AB (3 March 2005), paras. 689-694.
2 See Submission of Brazil to the Panel Regarding U.S. Requests for Preliminary Ruling, note 14.

Article 21.5 of the DSU of the measures taken to comply with the recommendations and
rulings, from reviewing those aspects which have been incorporated by the authorities in the
measure taken to comply.3
4. Japan respectfully submits that, as indicated by the report of the Article 21.5 compliance
panel in U.S. – OCTG Sunset Reviews, this Panel has the authority to identify and assess the new U.S.
measures taken to comply with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB, i.e., the MLP, the CCP,
and the GSM 102, GSM 103 and Supplier Credit Guarantee Programs, including the GSM 102
Program for Pig and Poultry Meat.
III. MLP and CCP Payments Are Part of the U.S. Measure Taken to Comply
5. For the reasons presented by Japan in its Th ird Party Submission, the assertion by the U.S.
that the panel lacks the authority to address Braz il's arguments regarding the U.S. MLP and CCP
payments is flawed.
4
6. Japan agrees with Brazil that the question before the compliance Panel is whether the new
basket of U.S. price-contingent measures (MLP a nd CCP), which constitutes the "measures taken to
comply", is "consistent with the covered agreem ents". This basket includes payments under the
programs–actions by the U.S. with an impact on th e market for cotton. The focus of the Panel,
therefore, should be on the payments made under the programs, rather than the programs as such. 5 To
comply with WTO obligations, the U.S. should have taken steps to ensure that the adverse effects no
longer exist.6
7. Japan thus respectfully submits that the Pa nel must reject this argument by the U.S.
IV. The Panel Has the Authority to Make Findings With Respect To the U.S.
Non-Compliance between 21 September 2005 and 31 July 2006
8. The U.S. submits that there is no "disagre ement" between the U.S. and Brazil as to the
existence of measures taken to comply with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB as stipulated
in Article 21.5 of the DSU. 7 The non-existence of measures take n to comply may not be subject to
review by a compliance panel if there is no such "disagreement". However, in this case, a
disagreement does exist between Brazil and the U.S.–one party (Brazil) is of the opinion that there is a
disagreement. The U.S. cannot simply make the di sagreement go away by stating that Brazil agrees
with the U.S. Alternatively, one may view the U.S. position as a concession that, indeed, it failed to
comply because it took no actions during the period in question. In any case, the U.S. argument must
be rejected as an attempt to remove from Article 21.5 review precisely the most egregious violations–
cases in which a Member does nothing whatsoever to comply.

3 United States—Sunset Reviews of Anti-Dumping Me asures on Oil Country Tubular Goods from
4 Third Party Submission of Japan, paras. 18-21.
5 Third Party Submission of Australia, para. 15.
6 The Third Parties to this dispute are nearly unanimous in taking this view. See Third Party
Submission of Australia, para. 25-31; Third Party Submission of Canada, para. 14; Third Party Submission of
Chad, paras. 35-46; Third Party Submission of China, paras. 9-16; Third Party Submission of
New Zealand 4.11.
7 First Submission of the U.S., paras. 49-56.

9. As Australia notes, a failure to address this claim by Brazil would diminish Brazil's rights
under Article 22 of the DSU.
8 Thus, the disagreement on the non-existence of the compliance
measures is properly before this Panel.
V. The Panel Should Carefully Consider Any Pr oposed Standards for Threat of Serious
Prejudice
10. Japan is of the view that the most important i ssue of general interest raised in this dispute is
the appropriate standard for establishing threat of serious prejudice under Part III of the ASCM.9
11. A threat of serious prejudice st andard should contain two elements − a legal standard and an
evidentiary requirement. The legal standard should not be based on the standard in Part V of the
ASCM. Part III issues are devoid of concerns relating to limiting the discretion of national authorities
to prevent misuse thereof in the conduct of domestic CVD investigations that apply to Part V.
Therefore, Japan does not agree with the assertion by the U.S. that Article 15.7 of the ASCM and
Article 4.1(b) of the Agreement of Safeguards prov ide important contextual guidance in interpreting
"threat" of serious prejudice under Part III of the ASCM.10
12. Brazil proposes that the Panel find that a "threat of serious prejudice" exists where there is a
"'significant likelihood' of serious prejudice in the future." 11 However, Brazil's proposed standard
offers little concrete guidance.
13. The legal standard must be tied to an evid entiary requirement. An explicit evidentiary
requirement such as that set forth in the first sentence of Article 15.7 of the ASCM 12 is a crucial
component of any "threat" standard. It is necessary to tie to real world facts what otherwise is an
amorphous concept.
14. Japan asks the Panel to consider these views wh en examining the issue of the proper standard
for threat of serious prejudice.
VI. Conclusion
15. Japan would like to thank the Panel for this opportunity to raise these issues concerning the
proper functioning, as required by the DSU, of the compliance phase of the dispute settlement
process.

8 Third Party Submission of Australia, para. 21.
9 See ASCM, Article 5(c) and note 13.
10 Rebuttal Submission of the U.S., para. 411.
12 See also Agreement on Safeguards, Article 4.1(b) ("A determination of the existence of a threat of
serious injury shall be based on facts and not merely on allegation, conjecture or remote possibility");
AD Agreement, Article 3.7 ("A determination of a threat of material injury shall be based on facts and not
merely on allegation, conjecture or remote possibility").

ANNEX C-13

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF NEW ZEALAND

28 February 2007

Mr Chairman, Members of the Panel,

Introduction

1. New Zealand has a systemic interest in this dispute and welcomes the opportunity to
participate in this oral hearing. We wish to ma ke brief comments on three areas, recognising that our
views have been presented to you already in our th ird party submission. Fi rstly we will comment on
why we believe the marketing loan payments and counter-cyclical payments are indeed within the
scope of this Article 21.5 proceeding; secondly we will make a brief comment on the burden of proof
in a case such as this; and finally we will explai n why we believe the marketing loan payments and
counter-cyclical payments continue to cause adverse effects.

The scope of this 21.5 proceeding

2. In our view the payments made under the marketing loan payments programme and the
counter-cyclical payments programme are clearly with in the scope of this proceeding. The panel was
clear in paragraph 8.1(g)(i) of its report that its finding was about the "effect of the mandatory price-
contingent United States subsidy measures." A refe rence to payments does not alter that finding.
Payments are not mandatory subsidy measures; th ey are simply the means by which the subsidy
measures are implemented. The distinction made by the United States between payments and
programmes would undermine the disciplines on actionable subsidies in the SCM Agreement.

3. Of particular importance is the need to give e ffect to the remedy provided for in Article 7.8 of
the SCM Agreement, as referred to by the original Pane l in this dispute. This is the first time the
relationship between Article 21.5 of the DSU and Ar ticle 7.8 of the SCM Agreement has come before
a compliance proceeding. Given that the marketin g loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes
have not been withdrawn, the United States cannot now avoid its obligation under Article 7.8 of the
SCM Agreement to remove the adverse effects of those subsidy programmes by claiming that they are
not measures taken to comply within the meaning of Article 21.5 of the DSU. In New Zealand's
view, if the measures are not withdrawn Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement then requires the Panel to
determine whether steps have been taken to remove the adverse effects found to exist by the original
Panel. It must then determine whether any steps that have been taken are "appropriate", that is
whether they are measures that are capable of removing the adverse effects. Article 21.5 of the DSU
cannot be invoked as a barrier to such an analysis.

Marketing Loan Payments and Counter-Cyclical Payments continue to cause significant price
suppression and increase the world market share

Burden of proof

4. As in our submission, we wish to make a brief comment regarding the burden of proof in a
case such as this. The DSB recommendations and rulings of 21 March 2005 covered
three programmes: the step 2 payments programme; the marketing loan payments programme; and
the counter-cyclical payments programme. Having chosen to remove only one of those programmes
the United States now claims that Brazil has the burden of showing that the remaining

two programmes cause serious prejudice. The Unit ed States conveniently ignores the fact that the
original Panel had already evaluated the evidence and made a finding that all three programmes cause
adverse effects. A Member should not have the bur den of proving something that has already been
decided by the original panel. In this case that would deprive the actionable subsidies provisions of
the SCM Agreement of their proper effect.

5. Since an implementing Member has the option of either withdrawing the subsidising measure
or removing the adverse effects under Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement, an implementing Member
that fails to withdraw the measure in question th en should have the burden of showing that it has
removed the adverse effects. Thus, in the presen t case proof by Brazil that the measures found by the
original panel to cause adverse effects have not been withdrawn should establish a prima facie case
that implementation has not occurred. In New Zealand's view, the burden would then be on the
United States to prove that the adverse effects caused by those subsidising measures have been
removed.

The adverse effects from the Marketing Loan Pr ogramme and the Counter-Cyclical Programme
remain

6. We agree with Brazil that the removal of the Step-2 programme had a relatively modest
impact. A comparison of the amounts paid under the various programmes shows significant
differences. Step 2 payments are small compared to marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments.
In the most recent year, 2005, for example, the St ep 2 payments were US$350 million. In the same
year, the marketing loan and counter-cyclical pr ogramme payments amounted to US$2,170 million.
The US cannot ignore the much larger volume of subsidisation under the two programmes that have
not been withdrawn or modified.

7. Also, it is possible – and likely – that th e counter-cyclical payments could increase to
compensate for the removal of the Step 2 programme . The United States argues against this line of
reasoning given that there was no increase in counter-c yclical payments in the current year. What the
United States fails to make clear is that those pa yments are already at their maximum rate. If that
were not the case there could indeed be a compen satory effect for the removal of the Step 2
programmes.

8. The United States attempts to counter Brazil's arguments about the trade-distorting effects of
counter-cyclical payments by blurring the line between counter-cyclical payments and decoupled
payments. But, counter-cyclical payments are not real decoupled payments.

9. Real decoupled payments are green box measure s and cannot be linked to the type or volume
of production or be related to or based on prices. Counter-cyclical payments, by contrast, are clearly
and explicitly linked to prices. The fact that in many years such paymen ts are likely to be paid out at
the maximum rate does not change the fact that they are linked to prices. The question is, what would
farmers do differently if there were no counter-c yclical payments and fa rmers were, essentially,
"guaranteed" 13.73 cents per pound less for their cotton.

10. Indeed, the United States fails to accurately explain the role of expectations in the market
place. While it is possible that removal of the St ep-2 programme will decrease the marketing loan
payments, this argument ignores the fact that these programmes are distorting whether or not
payments are made under them. Producers know that th e loan rate is there to support them and that
there is a target price they will receive either from the market or the government.

11. In fact, the proposition that marketing loan pa yments are distorting is almost self-evident.
Marketing loan payments are amber box measure s, the category in which are included the non-
prohibited measures with the most trade distor ting effect on production and trade. Producer

expectations are generated because of applied ad ministrative prices under a subsidisation programme
– because of a guaranteed price, regardless of what happens in the market place – not because of
financial transfers in any one year. Producers are aware that they are insulated from the market place
by government support and it is this guarantee of insulation that affects producer decision making.

12. The United States tries to convince you that producers respond to market signals, and that the
marketing loan programme and counter-cyclical programme do not insulate producers from the
market. But, in the absence of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical programmes – programmes
that guarantee certain prices to producers of cotton in the US – would the United States market share
of cotton be at current levels? The link that is necessary to examine is that between domestic,
guaranteed prices and United States production. And that is the source of the problem.

13. The United States contests the Brazilian argu ment that absent the payments farmers would
exit cotton production. This ignores the evidence. Over some years over half of the revenues
received by United States cotton farmers has come from subsidisation. The idea that if these subsidies
were not there, producers who have been deprived of half of their income would carry on planting
cotton is little short of absurd.

14. The United States also claims that the ec onometric modelling provided by Brazil is flawed,
but the arguments of the United States are either an attempt to reargue what was litigated before the
original panel and the Appellate Body and lost, or are inconsequential.

15. The United States itself demonstrates that if the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments programmes were eliminated there would be a reduction in United States cotton exports of
up to 25 per cent in 2002-2005 and 17 per cent in 2006-2008. That is a very clear measure of what
United States world market share would be in the absence of the marketing loan and counter-cyclical
payments programmes.

Conclusion

16. In conclusion, in New Zealand's view, Braz il has demonstrated that the United States has
failed to either withdraw the marketing loan and counter-cyclical payments programmes or to remove
the adverse effects of those programmes as required by Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement.
Accordingly, the United States has failed to co mply with the recommendations and rulings of
the DSB.

ANNEX C-14

THIRD PARTY ORAL STATEMENT OF THAILAND

28 February 2007

1. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Panel: Th ailand appreciates the opportunity to participate
in this proceeding and to present its views to the Panel today.

2. Thailand reserved its right to participate as a third party in this proceeding under Article 10.2
of the Dispute Settlement Understanding due to our interest as one of the top global exporters of rice.
As demonstrated by Brazil, rice is one of the products affected by the Export Credit Guarantees
(ECGs) maintained by the United States Comm odity Credit Corporation (CCC) under the GSM 102,
GSM 103 and SCGP programs. In fact, according to Brazil's first submission, almost half of the
USD 8.5 billion of ECGs outstanding as of 1 July 2005 involved rice and other products.
1

3. Mr. Chairman, a fair playing field for rice e xports is essential to Thailand's development. Not
only are Thailand's climate and geography particul arly suited to rice cultivation, the farming and
production of rice affects over 4 million households lo cated mostly in Thailand's rural areas. We
therefore generally share and support Brazil's concerns regarding the United States' implementation in
this dispute and its continued provision of ECGs subsequent to the withdrawal date of 1 July 2005
recommended by the Dispute Settlement Body.

4. In particular we find troubling the con tinued maintenance of GSM 102 ECGs by the
United States. Although the United States claims th at it has amended the GSM 102 program and that
ECGs provided thereunder are now WTO-consistent, Thailand views that the ECGs are still provided
on non-commercial terms such as the mandatory one-pe rcent fee cap and failure to take into account
all relevant risks faced by the CCC.
2

5. As Brazil has already submitted comprehens ive analyses on the aforementioned aspects of
GSM 102 in its submissions, as well as the resultant circumvention by the United States of its export
subsidy commitments
3, Thailand will not repeat those arguments here. We would only emphasize
Brazil's demonstration that GSM 102 bridges the fi nancial gap between United States exporters and
foreign buyers to make the export sale possible. Without such assistance from the United States
government, agricultural exports under GSM 102 would not occur.4

6. While a large developed country Member such as the United States can afford to finance its
agricultural exports through programs such as GSM 102, Thailand empathizes with the concern
expressed by Chad in its written submission th at developing country and LDC Members "face
permanent structural disadvantages compared to developed country Members in providing export
credit,"5 even if such schemes were consistent with WTO disciplines. In light of this concern, and of
the persuasive arguments and evidence submitted by Br azil, we urge the Panel to make the relevant
findings and recommendations requested by Brazil in its First Submission. Thank you.

1 First Written Submission of Brazil, 17 November 2006, paras. 344 and 345.
2 Ibid. paras. 419-421and paras. 445-446.
3 Ibid. paras. 448-452.
4 Ibid. paras. 4356-357.