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COM (88)656
V ol.1988/0219

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COMMISSION DESCOMMUNAUTES EUROPEENNES
COM(88 )656 final
Bruxelles ,le16novembre 1988
Communication auConseil
L'EFFET DESERRE ETLACOMMUNAUTE "
"concernant leprogramme detravail
delaCommission enmatière d'évaluation desoptions politiques
permettant defaire face aux risques associés à
l"'effet deserre "
et
Projet de
Résolution duConseil
-concernant (.'"effet deserre etlaCommunauté "
(présentésparlaCommission )
ESI
Sort,/,"'ojfej
?;i IO

Projet deCommunication delaCommission auConseil
concernant
■L'EFFET DESERRE
ETLACOMMUNAUTE "

-2-
TABLE DES MATIERES
Paragraphe Page
RESUME ETCONCLUSIONS A-C 4-12'
I. INTRODUCTION AUPROBLEME DEL'EFFET DESERRE
Brève description del'effet deserre 1-2 12-13
Gaz entraînant uneffet deserre :sources d'émission 3-10 13-20
etévolution desconcentrations atmosphériques
Conséquences climatiques possibles desconcentrations 11-13 20-27
croissantes degazentraînant uneffet deserre
Incidences possibles deschangements climatiques 14-21 27-32
II.CADRE INTERNATIONAL ETPERSPECTIVES
Introduction 22 32-33
Laconférence mondiale sur "Les modifications
del'atmosphère "(Toronto ,27-30 juin 1988 ) 23 33-32
Lesdéveloppements futurs 24-28 38-40
III .EXAMEN DES ACTIONS POSSIBLES
Introduction 29-31 40-41
Activités dereserche 32-36 42-44
Action préventive 37-42 44-48 Action préventive

-3-
Paragraph Page
Adaptation planifiée 48-49
Coopération avec lespays endéveloppement 46 49-50
IV.CONCLUSIONS DELACOMMISSION 47-58 51-54
ANNEXE
Laconférence de"Villach " A 56
(Villach-Austriche ,9-15 october 1985 )
Lesymposium CEEsur"leCO^etlesautres gazentraînant 8 57
uneffet deserre "(Bruxelles ,3-5novembre 1986 )
Lesateliers sur la"Définition demesures permettant de ' C 58-60
faire face àlamodification duclimat "(Villach -Austriche ,
28septembre-2 octobre 1987 etBellagio -Italie ,
9-13 november 1987 )
Lerapport delaCommission Brundtland D 61
Larésolution duParlement européen E 61

-A-
RESUME ETCONCLUSIONS
A. RESUME
A.1 . Introduction
Le19juillet 1988 ,laCommission adécidé decréer ungroupe
interservice chargé d'avancer ,pour lami-novembre 1988 ,desidées
préliminaires suruneéventuelle action communautaire contre
"l'effet deserre ".
Leprésent document vise àdonner unaperçu général deceproblème
etàprésenter desconclusions etdes recommandations quant aux
travaux supplémentaires àentreprendre immédiatement ,auxmesures à
prendre parpriorité etaurôle possible delaCommunauté européenne
dans 1edébat international sur cesujet complexe .
A.2. L'effet deserre
A.2.1 .Lesconditions climatiques quiprévalent actuellement sur laterre
sont régies dans une large mesure par lacomposition de
l'atmosphère .
Lavapeur d'eau,ledioxide decarbone (CO^),leméthane (CH^>,le
protoxyde d'azote (f^O),l'ozone (Oj)et,depuis peu,lesCFC,en
absorbant unepartie durayonnement infrarouge émis par laterre
pour équilibrer lerayonnement solaire ,accumulent unepartie dece
dernier dans l'atmosphère .
A.2.2.L'homme est entrain demodifier ,comme jamais auparavant ,la
composition del'atmosphère .Les concentrations detous lesgaz
entraînant l'effet dit "deserre "augmentent dufait que lescycles
biogéochimiques decessubstances sont modifiés par lesactivités
humaines .L'importance decesmodifications estgrande entermes de
changements climatiques possibles .
Nous savons aujourd'hui que l'équilibre thermique delaterre se
modifie etque cesmodifications serépercutent inévitablement ,en
fonction deleur ampleur ,sur leclimat .

-5-
A.2.3.Leprincipal gazAeffet deserre estleCOg,dont lesémissions
sont principalement dues âlacombustion decombustibles fossiles
(5gigatonnes decarbonne par an)
Actuellement /leCO^estresponsable âunpeuplus de50Xde
l'effet deserre .Les CFCutilisés dans lesaérosols ,les
contionneurs d'air,lesréfrigérateurs ,lessolvants ,les
emballages ,etc. ensont responsables à25X.Lesautres coupables
sont leméthane (CH^),dont laproduction estliée àl'élevage ,aux
rizières ,àl'exploitation dugaznaturel ,âlamauvaise combustion
delabiomasse etducharbon ,leprotoxyde d'azote (N^O)dont la
production est liée âlacombustion decombustibles fossiles età
l'utilisation d'engrais azotés etl'ozone troposphérique dûaux
processus photochimiques dans l'atmosphère polluée .Lesémissions
degazentraînant uneffet deserre ontaugmenté demanière
significative aucours desdernières années .
A.2.4 .Lesrésultats desmodèles climatiques globaux permettent deconclure
qu'undoublement delaconcentration préindustrielle équivalenté des
gazentraînant uneffet deserre provoquera uneaugmentation de
l'ordre de1,5 à4,5° Cdelatempérature moyenne.de lasurface de
laterre .Vul'évolution actuelle ,cephénomène devrait seproduire
d'ici à2050 .
A.2.5.Lesmodèles climatiques actuels nepermettent pas deprocéder âune
évaluation régionale fiable desmodifications climatiques
potentielles correspondant èl'augmentation moyenne précitée dela
température ensurface .Desévaluations approximatives montrent
qu'enEurope ,l'augmentation delatempérature pourrait être plus
importante que dans lereste dumonde .
A.2.6 .Lesconséquences indirectes decesmodifications climatiques
pourraient être résumées comme suit :
-uneélévation duniveau desmers (de30cmh1,5mpour un
réchauffement del'ordre de1,5è4,5°C );
“unefonte desbanquises ;
1gigatonne *109tonnes =1.000 millions detonnes .(1)

6
-unediminution desressources hydriques decertaines régions ;
-desmodifications delaproductivité agricole ;
-uneincidence sur lasanté humaine etsur l'écologie .
A.3 . Cadre International etperspectives
A.3.1 .Unconsensus scientifique sur leséléments debase del'effet de
serre tels qu'ilsontétédécrits dans leparagraphe ci-dessus aété
atteint lors dela"conférence internationale sur l'évaluation etle
rôleduCO^etdesautres gazentraînant uneffet deserre dans les
variations climatiques etleurs effets corollaires (Villach ,
9-15 octobre 1985 ).
A.3.2.Les conclusions delaconférence deVillach ont étédéveloppées lors
d'unsymposium CEEàBruxelles (3-5novembre 1986 )sur"leCO^et
lesautres gaz àeffet deserre :effets climatiques etautres "et
lors d'unatelier àVillach (28septembre -2octobre 1987 )etd'un
autre atelier àBellagio (9-13 novembre 1987 )sur "ladéfinition de
mesures permettant defaire face âlamodification duclimat ".
A.3.3.L'effet deserre aégalement étéétudié dans lecadre destravaux de
laCommission Brundtland .Faisant suite aux recommandations de
cette commission ,uneconférence mondiale sur "lesmodifications de
l'atmosphère” etimplications pour lasécurité globale aététenue à
Toronto (27-30 juin 1988 ).Lesactions suivantes ontété
recommandées :
-Ratifier leprotocole deMontréal sur lessubstances quiréduisent
lacouche d'ozone .Leprotocole devrait être revu en1990 envue
d'assurer uneélimination presque totale desémissions deCFC
entièrement halogénés d'ici àl'an2000 .
-Mettre enoeuvre desmesures depolitique énergétique visant â
diminuer lesémissions deC0^etdesautres gazàl'état detraces
et,partant ,àréduire lesrisques deréchauffement global .
-Fixer comme objectif initial global pour lespays industrialisés une
réduction d'environ 20Xdesémissions deCOgentre 1988 et2005 .
-Fixer desobjectifs relatifs âl'amélioration del'efficacité
énergétique quisoient directement corrélés âuneréduction duCOg
etdesautres gaz àeffet deserre .
-Entamer lespréparatifs d'unevaste convention globale .

-7-
-Créer unfonds mondial del'atmosphère .
A.3.4.Acourt terme ,cesactions internationales pourraient déboucher sur
l'ouverture déjà en1989 duprocessus visant lapréparation d'un
accord concernant l'effet deserre et,àplus longue échéance ,sur
lamise aupoint deprotocoles limitant lesémissions degazàeffet
deserre .
A.3.5.Lesprochaines étapes essentielles pour laréalisation decetaccord
seront probablement :
-l'atelier international enmatière delégislation etdepolitique
qui setiendra àOttawa audébut de1989 ;
-uneconférence politique àhaut niveau quisera organisée enautomne
1989 par leministère néerlandais del'environnement ;
-ladeuxième conférence mondiale sur leclimat qui setiendra à
Genève enjuin 1990 ;
-laconférence intergouvemementale surundéveloppement soutenable
quiaura lieu en1992 etpourrait être lepoint cluminant decette
série demanifestations .
A.4. Actions possibles
A.4.1 .Lesstratégies delutte contre l'effet deserre pourraient inclure
desactions deprévention et/oud'adaptation .
A.4.2.l'action deprévention estcelle quivise àréduire lesémissions de
gaz àeffet deserre et,partant ,leurs effets prévisibles .
Dans lecasduC0^,lesdomaines d'action lesplus concernés sont le
secteur énergétique engénéral etlesecteur forestier desrégions
tropicales .
Voici quelques exemples demesures énergétiques susceptibles de
contribuer àréduire lesémissions deCO^:
-amélioration del'efficacité énergétique (auniveau tant dela
demande que del'offre );
~utilisation decombustibles dégageant moins decarbone ;
/

-8-
-promotion dessources d'énergie renouvelables etdel'utilisation
soutenable delabiomasse ;
•promotion del'énergie nucléaire assortie detoutes garanties de
sécurité .
Dans cecontexte ,ledéveloppement detechniques énergétiques
innovatrices permettant demettre enoeuvre detelles mesures revêt
unegrande importance .
Along terme ,denouveaux sytèmes énergétiques nonbasés sur le
carbone pourraient contribuer demanière significative àla
réduction desémissions deCOg.
Toutes lesmesures susmentionnées nesont certes paségalement
efficaces .Deplus ,leur viabilité économique devra être
soigneusement évaluée .
Enmatière depolitique forestière ,ilconviendrait derenverser les
tendances actuelles àladéforestation ,notamment dans lesrégions
équatoriales .Pour cefaire ,ilfaudrait promouvoir ,d'unepart des
produits desubstitution dubois ,massivement utilisé comme
combustible dans cesrégions ,d'autre part despratiques agricoles
soutenables nesubordonnant pas ledéveloppement agricole à
l'incendie delarges pans deforêt .
A.4.3.Lesactions quipermettraient deréduire lesémissions degaztels
oue leCH.etleN.,0 sont moins faciles àidentifier ,vulesH c
incertitudes liées aux émissions deces substances .
Lespropositions suivantes pourraient être étudiées :
-Minimisation delaquantité deCH^dégagée lorsdel'extraction ,
dutransport etdel'utilisation dugaznaturel ;
-minimisation delaquantité deCH^dégagée parlesdécharges ;
-minimisation desémissions deN^Oliées àlacombustion de
combustibles fossiles ;
-étude desmodifications quipourraient être apportées àlagestion
dubétail ,ilaculture duriz etâlagestion deslagunes ,envue
deréduire lesrejets deCH^;

-9-
-étude desmodifications quipourraient être apportées aux
techniques defertilisation envuederéduire lesréjets deN^O
liés âl'utilisation d'engrais azotés .
A.4.4.Encequiconcerne lesCFC/ildevrait être possible d'éliminer
complètement leurs émissions d'ici àl'an2000 eninterdisant leur
production etenrecapturant /recyclant oudétruisant ceux quise
trouvent dans lesproduits existants .
A.4.S.Desmesures d'adaptation (visant àprévenir ouâréduire leseffets
négatifs desmodifications climatiques etdesphénomènes
corrolaires )pourraient s'imposer envuedecontrer leseffets qui/
endépit desactions deprévention /s'avéreraient inévitables .
Acestade /iln'estpaspossible dedétailler lesmesures
d'adaptation quipourraient être nécessaires dans laCommunauté vu
l'absence d'uneévaluation régionale fiable deceseffets
potentiels .
D'unemanière générale /lesmesures d'adaptation èlahausse du
niveau desmers pourraient comporter laconstruction dedigues de
mer/barrières contre lesinondations /lamise enplace deprogrammes
nationaux d'assurance contre lesinondations /laconstruction de
réservoirs (envue decombattre l'augmentation delasalinité )/
l'abandon desterres basses exploitées /letransfert despopulations
loin dessites vulnérables /laprotection desécosystèmes cêtiers .
Desétudes supplémentaires devront être menées pour identifier les
mesures d'adaptations quipourraient être prises dans d'autres
secteurs agricole etsylvicole .
B. CONCLUSIONS CONCERNANT L'ETAT DES CONNAISSANCES AUSUJET DEL'EFFET
DESERRE
B.1 . Lacomposition del'atmosphère terrestre estmodifiée demanière
significative par lesactivités humaines .
Sefondant sur lesrésultats demodèles climatiques globaux ,les
scientifiques sont d'accord pour affirmer qu'undoublement dela
concentration préindustrielle équivalenté deCC^dans l'atmosphère

10-
fera augmenter de1,5 à4,5°C latempérature moyenne delasurface
delaterre .Untel doublement devrait être atteint endéans la
première moitié dusiècle prochain .
Selon cesmodèles ,lesmodifications quiaffecteront lesconditions
climatiques globales moyennes dépasseront "cequi s'estpassé au
cours destemps historiques etdespériodes géologiques récentes ".
B.2. Lesdifférents effets deceschangements climatiques etleurs
conséquences socio-économiques nepeuvent être évalués demanière
détaillée etfiableàl'heure actuelle .Toutefois ,lestravaux
préliminaires menés enlamatière montrent que lesrisques sont
dangereusement élevés etque lesconséquences directes etindirectes
probables peuvent être catastrophiques .
B.3. Derécents événements internationaux ont introduit unfacteur
d'urgence dans ledébat mondial enlamatière .Ilestapparu
clairement qu'ilétait grand temps d'élaborer desstratégies viables
etd'accélérer les efforts derecherche .
C. CONCLUSIONS DELACOIWISSION
C.O. Lesprincipales conclusions duprésent rapport sont résumées
ci-dessous .Uneprésentation complète enestdonnée auchapitre IV.
C.1 . LaCommunauté devrait mettre pleinement enoeuvre laconvention de
Vienne sur laprotection delacouche d'ozone ainsi que leprotocole
deMontréal sur lessubstances quiréduisent lacouche d'ozone et
devrait participer activement 1larenégociation deceprotocole .
C.2 . LaCommunauté devrait approuver l'ouverture dediscussions sur un
éventuel accord international enmatière deprotection de
l'atmosphère .Elle devrait être prêteàparticiper activement àla
préparation etàlanégociation d'untelaccord quipourrait fixer
desobjectis spécifiques delimitation desémissions incriminées et
définir desmesures etdesprogrammes deréduction decesémissions .

-11
LaCommission devrait donc sedécider àlancer ,dans lesplus brefs
délais ,unvaste programme d'étude visant àévaluer lafaisablité ,
lescoûts etlesrésultats probables desmesures éventuelles de
limitation desémissions degaz àeffet deserre .
Lesprincipaux secteurs deceprogramme devraient être :
l'identification etl'évaluation technique desmesures et
technologies capables deréduire lesémissions desgaz àeffet de
serre ;
l'analyse desconséquences économiques ,industrielles ,énergétiques ,
sociales etinstitutionnelles desmesures ettechnologies précitées ;
l'établissement etl'évaluation descénarios ,sur labase ,
notamment ,desobjectifs stratégiques possibles pour leplafonnement
desémissions deCO^;
l'établissement d'uncadre d'analyse dedécision ;*
l'identification etl'évaluation demesures d'adaptation .
LaCommunauté etsesEtats membres devraient désormais tenir compte
dans leurs décisions politiques enmatière depolitique énergétique
oudans d'autres secteurs concernés )deschangements climatiques
potentiels liés âl'effet deserre .Cefaisant ,ilséviteront des
coûts plus élevés àl'avenir .
Deplus ,uneaction immédiate devrait être lancée envuede
renforcer etd'amplifier lesefforts visant àéconomiser l'énergie ,
àaméliorer sonefficacité ,èdévelopper denouvelles sources
énergétiques etèdévelopper l'utilisation del'énergie nucléaire
avec toutes lesgaranties desécurité .Unegrande priorité devrait
être accordée audéveloppement etâlapromotion accélérées des
technologies innovatives èl'échelle commerciale dans cesdomaines .
Unetelle action sejustifie pleinement dupoint devuetant
énergétique qu'environnemental ,quelles quesoient lesincertitudes
liées àcertains aspects scientifiques del'effet deserre .Il

12-
serait particulièrement important depouvoir quantifier les
améliorations del'efficacité énergétique entermes deréduction des
émissions deCO^-
C.6 . LaCommunauté devrait soutenir devigoureux programmes derecherche
surtous lesaspects del'effet deserre etdevrait promouvoir de
nouvelles technologies énergétiques pouvant limiter lesémissions de

-12-t>-S
I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
What the "greenhouse effect "IsInshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue,among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere ,theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C ,would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact ,theheat balance oftheearth ,which receives radiation from
the sunandreflects orre-emits itinto the space ,islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature oftheearth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (CO^),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (NgO)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbutto
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth asIdng wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
bytheearth .^
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part oftheradiant energy
coming from the sun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange ofthe global thermal
balance ofthe earth .
^Stratospheric ozone (the"ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from thesun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthelower atmosphere .Anychange
inthevertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofCC^,
CFCs,CH^,NgO,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthe lower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthe size ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from thesun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
6reenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times andare still increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO^):
a.Emission sources :
Most ofanthropogenic CO-emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
it C
(around 5Gtons ofcarbon peryear ).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
COgworld yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution to .emission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon peryear .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthe last 25years .
* 9
1Gton =10 tons =1000 million tons

-14-
Theshare ofCOgemissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld and itsrecent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
CO2emissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
1950 I 1965 I1980
I Region |Mt/y* I X |Mt/y* X¡Mt/y*IX I
INorth America I723 I44,7 I1003 32,1 |1380126,7 I
IURSS andEastern Europe I291 I18,0 I750 24,0 |1251 ¡24,2 I
IChina I23 I1,4 I178 5,7 |439 18,5 I
IWestern Europe I379 I23,4 I643 20,6 |853 116,5 I
¡Japan ,Australia I45 I2,8 I137 4,4 |300 |5,8 I
¡Developing Countries I92 I5,7 I250 8,0 1631¡12,2 I
¡Others (worldwide gas I63 I3,9 I163 5,2 |310 |6,0 I
¡flaring ,bunkers ) I ! 1 1 I
I
¡World total
II I
I1618 I
I I100 I31261
100 I
I1
5170(100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide and theglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton.
Thefigures above showthedramatic increase ofCOjemissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
Theshare ofthetotal world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCO2world emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USDOE/cR-0239
report referred toabove ):
6000[ ' ' _
4000Η ^
3000 -
i2000K.,' -
I1000
“800- ~
!600 -
Z*00r ■/
« _
200\- X
100L-_ I_ I- I-
1950 1960 1970 1980
Year
Thesteep increase ofyearly CO^emissions from oilandnatural gas
has been slowed down oreven reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently CO2
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel
I11985CO2emissions in|
Imillion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 I
Ioil 1 2189 I
1coal I 2181 I
1gasflaring I 52 I
1Total I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

16-
Percapita CO^emissions fromfossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :
I Country (Percapita C0^emissions (tons j
I |ofcarbon perinhabitant ) |
United States | 4/9
German Dem.Rep. | 4,9
Canada v | 4,4
Czechoslovakia | 4,1
Australia | 3,9
Soviet Union | 3,3
Poland | 3,0
Belgium | 3,0
Germany ,Fed.Rep .| 2,9
United Kingdom | 2,5
Netherlands | 2,5
France | 2,0
Japan | 1/9
Italy I 1/5
Spain I 1/4
China | 0/5
Brazil | 0/3
India | 0/1
World average | 1/0
Calculated from :Smith ,X.H. (1988 ):CO^andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIACoal Research ,London ,andUN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
CO^hasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCO^
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwasanaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
1ppm=part permillion =0,0001%

17-
COgconcentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly due tofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans
andvegetation )are nolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore CO^stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's);
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23 ppb*and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofCO^,onehasto
note that the rate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofCO^,around5-7X peryear ,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than CO^' ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomere than 100
years ).
*
1ppb *part perbillion s0,0000001%

-18-
6.Incase ofmethane (CH^):
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^comemainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota arealso relevant andtheoverall CH^
cycle 1snotwell known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(♦/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(♦/- 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Han-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,etc.)75(♦/- 35)
Rice paddies 70(+/- 30)
Biomass burning 70<♦/- 40)
Natural gasandmining losses 50(+/- 25)
Solid Waste 30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasIncreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1/54and 1/68ppm Inthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively /1n1983 ).Average yearly Increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1/1X.
7.Incase ofnitrous oxide (N.,0 ):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions ofN^Oaremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans and estuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion
Biomass burning
Fertilized soils
Cultivated natural soils4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer on6reenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
NgOatmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppbtoabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25X peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that thepresent increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isduetotheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios may bedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease 1ntheheat quantity which is
trapped inthelower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and Itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc.areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCt^,25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,NgOand0^
together .

-21
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2C75 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
_theWorld Resources Institute 1nterms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that Ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences oftherecent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy 1nall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear In
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5X by2025 .Inother studies this
share Ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23X,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7X,Edmons =19X .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees the share ofnuclear Inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3X ,1990 =5.4X ,2000 =7.1X .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
Isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andInput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas for further research and study .

-22-
Theresultsaresummarized innext figure .
Commitment toFuture Warming intheWR1 Scenario *
WUSawki
I II|I1P|^1W0 3000 Im ]I I3000 I 3073
□Ààà À À9mm Up4–miw*c *>double
CO,«Mi ifceIWKMI
Apprmdnate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to14to44Mgrem centigrade above pre-"MmfriJ fpwihui .
Apprestatalejmofcpmmllmmttowarming^ornaito14to44amtipadtabovt1900
Source :HintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees ,
URI,Washington DC,USA

23-
Energy Policies intheWR1 Scenarios
BaseCas*Smirto
•"Burinssa -Aa-Usual." theinertial model ofgrowth and
diange intheworld energy industry
*Nojinttrlei tostow carbon dioxide emissions
•Minima !sdmuiu »tounprove end-uw efficicncy
•Mode «stimulus fortynfuels drveiopmrnt
•Minimal stimulus fordevtløpment ofsoler energy
systems
•Nopolicy tottmit tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforms Lition
•Minimal environmental costa tnduded inprice ofenergy
High Iixi–Wme Scenario
•Accelerated growth inenergy useIsencouraged
•Nopoliciestoslowcarbondioxideemissions
•Nosomatas tofcnprove end-use eífieiency•Modest stimulus forinoeased uaeofcoal
•Strong stimulus forvynfuela development
•Nostimulus fordevmoptnent ofsolår energy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmaigmal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs Included inprice ofenergy
Modest Poliaes Scenario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use effidency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecoeysterr
protection ,more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
ruet-fwitching
Slow Build-up Scenario
•Strong emphasis placed onImproving energy efficiency
•Rapid introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange •0.9% peryear )
(Final Pnce -S3.1S-S4.23 perC)in2003 )
(Pinal Price•$16.30 perCJin2025)
(S0J0 perC)fotcoal $1.00 perC)forlynfucU )
(Rate ofchange -0.7% peryear )
(Rate ofimprovement •0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-$275-53 JOperC)in1995 )
(Final Price-$20perCJm2040 )
($0.15 perCJforcoal ;$0.30 perCJfortyrtiucLs )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear )
(Final price -S15.00 perCjin2025 )
($0.60 perCJforcoal ;$1.50 perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement -1.5% peryear )
(Final Pnct-512.00 perCJin2000 )
($1.20 perCJforcoal ;S3.00 perCJforsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWR!Scenarios (Cigatons ofCarbon perYear )
H1 JWXJ Semarlet /
BHighEmissions /
м▲ВамСам /
y__3fModes!Policin /•Slow Build-up
k >
Î- //
2. *'–•
0-|- |- 1-»-1- 1-ifModestPolicies
•SlowBuild-up
1TO 2000 2023 2000 2073

-24-
Byadifferent approach .Or.R.A. Warrich ofthe Climatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,hasrecently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANOE(FROM19BSM°C)
(B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY EQUiuaRiUMUTRANSIENT)"C)CL(MAT|CCHANGE
^«,0-3.7)––––––––––Q–––––––
! e.o•.
J2.SO.J)__
B.0-- 1fl
4.0-■ B
JBESTGUESS|:.45^_:_J.[T
'ni--zh-!–rtr-î-JjL^ .J..
800700IβΟΟI600 188520052015202520352045
•EOUIVALENTCOjCONC(ppmv)JsM\\ 1YEAR
2O2E^\|
/ ·-2035 Ν.
*β* --2045Μ \
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANOE(FROM1985M°C)
(C)CLIMATICCHANGE (B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY
S.0+
.90 B«C-3.0~r~~
_t_
800700 SÔO500______I_.I. IEQUIVALENTCOjCONC(ppmv)]1985 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
\ YEAR
+2005
+2015
+2026
2036
2045
YEAR
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend:
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
-T2Xistheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent COjconcentration
-"transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
duetothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
"-Given therange ofscientific uncertainties /thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The "best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45% .
-The 90% confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts^ :
-Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ). For adoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases )/the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse /theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice .
-Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasouch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987 );Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA

-26-
-Summer Continental Dryness /Warming (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,and anearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ).Astheclimate
warms ,theincreased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations intheupper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from thestratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )"(WHO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andonthe rate ofsuch changes should nothide
the fact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"COgandother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that Increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the 21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe the range ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrate ofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"CO2and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986 );"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthe large icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sealevel rise are
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1,5meter (Toronto Conference ,June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Water Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming mayresult insignificant changes in'precipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell asthe Impacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCOgatmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing COgconcentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
summarised below^ :
"-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds )(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands

-30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthelevel ofcrop certainty andinthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
duetotheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthe local community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given the large uncertainties
about the regional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthe lack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts are required toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects and atCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCO2onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion oftherange of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct ,
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend ontherate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks aredue toclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphire dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCO^parun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques êentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment que cesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques sur lesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract CO^
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"COgandother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission's report
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security "-Toronto ,27-30 iune 1988

-34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized attheinitiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important and are therefore reproduced infull :
"-Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming andsea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toactnow."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments andIndustry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

-35-
-Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofCOgandother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofCC^isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce COgemissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
-Reduce CO^emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly /the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
-Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inCOgandother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will notallbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally /
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inCOgandother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency /a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
Implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
-Apart from efficiency measures /thedesired reduction will require
Ci)switching tolower CO^emittaing fuels ,(ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

-36-
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved ,through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements ,nuclear power
could have arole toplay inlowering CO2emissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage ,review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies ,inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion ,toreduce (i)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-CC^greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use oftheproduct .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations ,
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law .This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands inthe Fall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 andtheSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .
/

-37-
-Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund ,financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries ,tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
-Support the work ofthe Inter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
-Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme ,the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining the role of
oceans andglobal heat transport andthe flux ofgreenhouse gases .
-Increase significantly thefunding forresearch ,development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy ,ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis onthe ,needs ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
-Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
-Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Developments (WCED )report ,"OurCommon Future ",including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
-Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring ,research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Groupe reports
andthefull Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception oftheissues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
environment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing thecrucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome ofthe above mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
•theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.The substance ofthe convention mentioned under 24above (and of
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist 1n :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies and toreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects ofthe issue .
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (see Annex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above all inthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect the effort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

-40
The report oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not,however ,beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomuni tyasawhole infacing it.
Still less should 1tencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures maybeclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level andrequire
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCOgemissions );
.(b)those which maybetaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
(c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of (a)and ofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change and itsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain asthe range ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo .
Only 1nthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

-42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with thestudy oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with theimpacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised inthe frame ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially onthe climatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,the cloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress onthe impacts which climate change could have ,
onimportant sectors ofthe European environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts onthe European coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems and coastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops and forests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased Ct^and
climate change ,theImpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridif ication oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-43-
(4)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources ,theImpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail and frost onEuropean --
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthe social ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,and likely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
due toclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcostline regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded and tohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system and itssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
34.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCO^isconcerned ,theobjective canalso beachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification for aspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar .

44-
35.Elimination ofCO^atthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
available .
Newdirections for research inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCO^problem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced and thepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models are there toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment andtohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute theimpact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythereduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CC£emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing therate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly way athand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incase ofCO2
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothe most
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (CO^)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,CO^emissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )and in
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfarasaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCO^emissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures forCO^
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CC^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not allthose measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective and one should make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCO^emission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which are listed without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce CO^emissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

46-
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHO,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuelswitching toless CC^emitting fuels (therelation ofCC^
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oilandnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnon carbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCO^atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing COgemissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve CC^reduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry ,especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs Missions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,N^Oeaissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize N^Oemission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
^0release from nitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible useofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
Impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-Impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointheshort term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover,even inqualitative and
simple way,alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforImpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation aeasures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Sea walls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
A5.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland use tooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
A6.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

-50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
Medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which may beaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

-51-
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer and theMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bythe Toronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets forlimiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,Industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications and impacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCO^emission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
Thefocus oftheexercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models andtheexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views andrapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP andofOECD andIEA.
52.TheCommunity anditsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
theissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofInnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCOgreductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit CO^emissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded inthe frame ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
envi ronment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaid to
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment and inbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

-54-
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess thelong-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
Increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies oneshould ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States andthe
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

ANNEX
Recent aajor events onthegreenhouse issue

56-
A.The"VILLACH "Conference (International conference ontheassessment and
therate ofCO,andofother greenhouse gases InCUM tevariations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference wasjointly convened byUNEP ,WMOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic andsocial decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothefuture .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,therate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models foradoubling ofthe
atmospheric CO^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andseaice."

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account the results ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsea level ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofOr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric CO^andother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58-
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers andthescientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
(Villach ~Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses forlimiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
CDOzone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer '(thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently andthat
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
ofthe schedule for reductions inCFCs and eventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gas limitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing Ct^
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along thelines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

-59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc .Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason for measures toreduce deforestation .
(A)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial and societal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills that emit methane ;N^O
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc .
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning forlarge newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms of equivalence )andthus to
theemissions andforeach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbeset in
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60-
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall for a
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate anditsvariability andsea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring the changing climate ;
-what activities arerequired formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthefocus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofImportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority ."

-61-
0.TheBrundtland Coamission 'sreport
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
"-improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sea level ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aim atan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofC0^in
the atmosphere :
■TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc .
82-1430 /84).

-62-
-having regard tothereport oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc.A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
'number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthechanges taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
and toexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,thelatter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy andinnegotiations with
both national andinternational authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

-63-
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational use ofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls for aworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothedeforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls onthe Council when drawing upthenew framework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothe area ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon theindustrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which arelargely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with the relevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthe report of
its committee tothe Council and the Commission ."

Programme detravail delaCommission concernant l'analyse
desoptions politiques permettant defaire face
aux risques associés à 1"effet deserre "
I.CONTENU DUPROGRAMME
Leprésent programme detravail devrait apporter toutes données utiles
permettant dedéterminer lerôle que laCommunauté etsesEtats membres
pourraient Jouer dans ladéfinition etlapromotion ,ausein d'uncontexte
International approprié ,desmesures nécessaires pour faire face aux
risques associés àl'effet deserre .
Acette fin .Ilportera sur lespoints suivants :
A.Identification des actions permettant deprévenir oude
réduire lesémissions degazentraînant uneffet deserre
Lesmesures nécessaires pour réduira conformément auxobjectifs
stratégiques fixés enlamatière ,lesémissions desdifférents gaz
entraînant uneffet deserre seront Identifiées .Pour chacun decesgaz ,
Ilsera procédé àuneévaluation détaillée desméthodes deréduction
existantes etduniveau deréduction associé àchaque méthode .Les
possibilités deréduction oudeprévention desémissions seront étudiées
dans les secteurs suivants :

-2-
-laproduction d'énergie ;
-laconsommât Iond'énergie (ycompris lestransports );
-laproduction Industrielle ;
-l'utilisation deproduits ;
-l'agriculture .
L'approche choisie devra tenir compte desdifférences spécifiques existant
entre pays ougroupes depays .Elle devra notamment prendre en
considération :
-lestade dedéveloppement économique ,
-lapolitique énergétique ,
-lagéographie .
B.Implications des méthodes deréduction des émissions
Les méthodes deréduction des émissions seront évaluées quant à :
-leurs Implications techniques etIndustrielles ,
-leurs Implications financières etéconomiques ,
-leurs Implications politiques ,Institutionnelles etsociales .
\
C.Mise aupoint d'uncadre d'analyse deladécision
Cecadre permettra destructurer lesInformations disponibles sur tous les
aspects de l'effet deserre et,partant ,d'identifier lesavantages
probables (entermes dediminution desrisques demodification climatique ,
etc. )des différentes méthodes envisageables .Iltiendra compte :
-des émissions etdes réductions d'émission ,
-des implications decesréductions ,
-desdonnées scientifiques disponibles sur lesavantages potentiels des
différents modes deréduction des émissions .

-3-
Ilsera conçu demanière AIntégrer lefacteur d'incertitude attaché aux
émissions ,Al'efficacité descontrôles ,auxchangements climatiques etA
leurs effets etpermettra d'identifier lesrésultats lesplus probables des
différentes actions .
Cecadre permettra également d'étudier lesImplications d'unreport
éventuel de l'action .Enstructurant leproblème etenIdentifiant les
principaux facteurs d'incertitude qui Influencent leplus lesrésultats .Il
fournira unoutil majeur pour évaluer lesactions etfocaliser larecherche
future sur des domaines clés .
D.Evaluation .Al'aide ducadre d'analyse deladécision ,des avantages
probables des différentes méthodes deréduction des émissions et
établissement des scénarios climatiques etd'impact résultant de lamise
enoeuvre deces méthodes
Lecadre sera utilisé pour déterminer lesrésultats possibles des diverses
méthodes deréduction des émissions etdeleur calendrier d'exécution
(scénarios ). IlIndiquera également laprobabilité relative des résultats
qui seraient atteints .
E.Identification etévaluation des mesures d'adaptation nécessaires dans
lecadre des différents scénarios élaborés conformément aupoint D
cl-dessus
Lamise enoeuvre des mesures deréduction des émissions nefera pas
dlsparaTtre complètement lesrisques résiduels associés auxémissions
passées etauxémissions futures quinepeuvent être supprimées .Des
mesures d'adaptation (actions visant Aprotéger lapopulation ,lesbiens ,
l'agriculture etlesressources naturelles etéconomiques )devront donc être
prises .L'importance etlalocalisation desrisques résiduels majeurs seront
définies ,lescoûts enargent etentemps desdifférentes mesures d'adaptation
évalués .Lesmesures d'adaptation devront être classées parordre depriorité
envuedegarantir quelesressources disponibkés'soient exploitées aumieux et
que l'accent soit placé surlesprincipaux domaines depréoccupation .

4-
II.LISTE DETAILLEE DES ACTIVITES
L'exécution duprésent programme nécessitera entre autres lesactivités
suivantes :
A.Analyse des émissions etméthodes deréduction des émissions
I)Etablissement d'analyses d'émissions pour chaque gazentraînant un
effet deserre .Cesémissions devraient être analysées
par (a)réglons ,(b)pargroupes politiques ,stratégiques et
économ 1ques .
II)Définition des facteurs (autres que lesmesures deréduction )
susceptibles d'influencer lesémissions futures .Evaluation deleur
probabilité etétablissement desdivers scénarios d'émissions
correspondants .
III )Identification desméthodes deréduction des émissions applicables
pour chaque gazentraînant uneffet deserre .Evaluation des
réductions potentielles dans lecadre des différents scénarios
d'émissions .
B.Evaluation des Implications desméthodes deréduction desémissions
I)Définition delafaisabilité ,ducoût etducalendrier d'exécution de
chaque mesure deréduction desémissions .
II)Evaluation deseffets sociaux etéconomiques .
III)Evaluation deseffets sur ladistribution (a)ausein dechaque pays ,
(b)entre pays ,(c)entre groupes politiques etstratégiques .
C.Etablissement d'uncadre permettant d'intégrer lesInformations obtenues
aucours duprogramme detravail

-5-
Cecadra devrait être conçu damanlère à:
-montrer lesImplications desdifférentes actions ,ycompris lescoûts et
lesavantages potentiels ;
-Indiquer lesImplications des reports éventuels del'action ;
-Indiquer lebien-fondé desdécisions possibles (encequi concerne les
stratégies deréduction oud'adaptation )compte tenu ducaractère
Incertain desprévisions etdes données scientifiques disponibles ;
-mettre enlumière lesrecherches ultérieures nécessaires pour pouvoir
prendre lesdécisions qui s'imposent .
D.Evaluation des stratégies deréduction des émissions
I)Détermination desavantages potentiels qui résulteraient de
l'application desstratégies deréduction desémissions .Cetravail
nécessitera unexamen critique des liens existant entre les
concentrations degazprovoquant uneffet deserre etleréchauffement
global ,portant notamment sur lessystèmes derétroaction ,le
calendrier d'exécution etles Implications pour lesclimats régionaux .
Il)Evaluation ,fondée sur l'examen critique précité ,delavraisemblance
des différentes prévisions etdeleurs Implications .Cetravail
devrait Intégrer lesavis desprincipaux experts et,sipossible ,
déboucher sur l'établissement detaux deprobabilité reflétant le
degré d'incertitude desdifférents résultats .
III)Apartir deces Informations ,etdes Informations obtenues sur les
réductions d'émissions (A)etleurs Implications (B),utilisation du
cadre dedécision visé aupoint C)envue d'évaluer lescoûts ,les
avantages etlesautres Implications desdifférentes méthodes de
réduction des émissions .

-β-
E.Evaluation des masures d'adaptation
I)Etude des Implications des différents niveaux deréchauffement notanment sur
l'Infrastructure etlesressources alimentaires européennes ;
Identification d'autres conséquences majeures .Evaluation deseffets
sur d'autres groupes politiques etéconomiques depays .
II)Examen desméthodes quipourraient être mises enoeuvre pour faire
face auxchangements potentiels (I) (exemple :nouvelles
variétés deplantes cultivées ,nouvelles méthodes deplanification ,
etc .)
III)Détermination ,grâce él'évaluation visée sous (D)etaucadre de
décision visé sous (C),descoûts etavantages desdifférentes mesures
d'adaptation ;évaluation de l'efficacité probable decesmesures
d'adaptation élalumière deseffets prévus .
III .LIGNES DIRECTRICES POUR L'EXECUTION DUPROGRAMME
A.LaCommission tiendra compte ,dans l'exécution duprésent programme ,des
autres activités pertinentes menées auxniveaux communautaire etmondial ,
tellesque :
-Leprogramme derecherche delaCEenmatière declimatologie etderisques
naturels ;
-lesprogrammes duCentre Commun deRecherche concernant l'économie d'énergie ,
l'énergie solaire etlaconversion thermique ,lasécurité nucléaire ,etc. ;
-lesconférences internationales (telle larécente conférence sur lesmodifi ¬
cations del'atmosphère ,Toronto ,juin 19C3 );
-lesactivités dugroupe detravail PNUE /OMSsurlesmodifications
climatiques ;
Acette fin ,laCommission établira unecoopération appropriée avec les
organisations concernées parcesactivités .

-7-
B.Avec l'assistance ducomité visé él'article 1erdeladécision ,la
Commission définira lesmodalités etlesmesures concrètes d'exécution du
présent programme detravail ainsi que lesInformations que doivent fournir
les Etats membres .
Lesorganisations etministères compétents desEtats membres seront
associés autravail par l'Intermédiaire ducomité susmentionné .
IV.FINANCEMENT DUPROGRAMME
Lesfonds quisont considérés nécessaires àl'accomplissement du
programme s'élèvent à6millions d'ECUS .

Projet
de
Résolution duConseil concernant "l'effet deserre et
laCommunauté "
LeConseil desCommunautés européennes ,
vuleTraité instituant laCommunauté économique européenne ,
vuleprojet deRésolution delaCommission ,
considérant que letraité instituant laCommunauté économique européenne ,
modifié par l'acte unique européen ,prévoit ledéveloppement et lamise en
oeuvre d'une politique communautaire enmatière d'environnement etque ce
même traité prévoit que dans l'élaboration desonaction dans cedomaine la
Communauté tienne compte notamment des données scientifiques ettechniques
disponibles etdesavantages etdescharges quipeuvent résulter del'action
oude l'absence d'action ;
considérant que laprésente résolution s'inspire desconsidérations figurant
dans laRésolution du19octobre 1987 concernant unprogramme d'action des
Communautés européennes en matière d'env ironnement (1),àsavoir
l'opportunité d'agir auniveau approprié ,ainsi que lanécessité de
coordonner les travaux auniveau international ,d'évaluer lesavantages et
lescoûts desactions envisagées etdepréparer l'action defaçon adéquate
dupoint devue technique etpolitique ;
(1) J.O. n“C328 du7.12.1987 ,p.1

-2-
considérant que lee données scientifiques disponibles ,notamment les
résultats _des programme »derecherche enmatière creryJr_Pnnqmcnt de le
Communauté .Indiquent que Iscomposition del'atmosphère estentreln d'être
sensiblement modifiée par leeaotlvlté »de l'homme etque ,sur laoaee des
modèles climatologiques disponibles »cela pourrait entraîner àt*rm«parun
effet dit demmrr*, modifications duClimat StPar r»li impacts
Importante sur i'•nvir©nn©fi*»nt ,sur l'homme etsursesactivité »!
considérant que compte tenu de lanature etdes dimensions des risques
entraînée par l'effet deeerre .Ilest urgent deprocéder Aunexamen des
possibilités d'action visant àprévenir ouàréduira casrisquas ;
considérant qut lors dsréesntss conférences Internat lonalesuntrès largs
consensus s'est dégagé concernant lanécessité dsconsidérer d'urgence des
.mesuras visant Aréduira Issémissions des gas responsables de l'effet de
i
serre i
eoneldérant quecompte tenu delecomplexité dueujet "effet deserre ",des
vsete »etmultiplet Impi lest lone àlafoie decet effet etdee mesures
envisageables pour enprévenir ouenmitiger lesconséquences ,unexamen
préalable approfondi des options politiques possibles ,réalisées par des
méthodologies appropriées ouitiennent notamment compte demanière adéquate
des fnesrtltudss quisubsistent surplusieurs aspeote dusujet enquestion ,
setnécessaires
considérant qu'ilestdelaplus haute Importance que laCommunauté etses
Etate membres soient enmseure dedonner une contribution fondamentale àla
réflexion etàl'élaboration concsrnant lesdécisions politiques évsntuslles
àprsndre dans leeenceintes Internationales appropriées afin d'agir dela
manière laplus efficace contre leerlequee demodification climatique .

-3-
Accueille favorablement la communication de la Commission concernant
"l'effet deserre etlaCommunauté "etapprouve lesprincipales conclusions
etrecommandations qu'elle contient .
Déclare que laCommunauté devrait consacrer une attention grandissante aux
risques des modifications climatiques possibles associés àl'effet deserre
et qu'elle devrait contribuer de façon substantielle àpromouvoir la
réflexion etladiscussion concernant lesmesures possibles visant àcontrer
ces risques .
Accueille favorablement l'initiative delaCommission delancer unprogramme
detravail concernant l'évaluation des options politiques pour faire face
aux risques associés àl'effet deserre etapprouve les objectifs dece
programme .
Invite les Etats membres àcoopérer activement avec laCommission dans
l'exécution duprogramme detravail susmentionné etàcoordonner leurs
activités concernées dans ledomaine de l'effet deserre ,dans lecadre de
ceprogramme .
Invite laCommission àprésenter auConseil etauParlement Européen un
rapport d'avancement àlamoitié de1990 etunrapport final sur les
résultats obtenus parceprogramme detravail etsur lesconclusions tirées
àlafin de1991 .